From: owner-abolition-usa-digest@lists.xmission.com (abolition-usa-digest) To: abolition-usa-digest@lists.xmission.com Subject: abolition-usa-digest V1 #241 Reply-To: abolition-usa-digest Sender: owner-abolition-usa-digest@lists.xmission.com Errors-To: owner-abolition-usa-digest@lists.xmission.com Precedence: bulk abolition-usa-digest Tuesday, December 28 1999 Volume 01 : Number 241 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Date: Mon, 27 Dec 1999 16:58:54 +1000 From: FoE Sydney - Nuclear Campaign Subject: (abolition-usa) New Year in Sydney - The Best New Years Present (or anytime really) New Year in Sydney - The Best New Years Present (or anytime really) IT'S the day past boxing day here in Sydney - Still a public holiday, with buses on sunday timetable. The whole of Sydney is in holiday mode. Unlike the northern hemisphere, down here it is warm and sunny though it rains on and off today. People are likely to spend new year with their families or friends at a back - yard barbequeue, or at the beach. Right now there's a lot of people taking their leisure in the city. There are massive millenium celebrations planned for Christmas, and most folk are cautiously confident that in Australia at least, the Y2K 'bug' has been fixed. In fact barely more than essential infrasrructure has been fixed, with most business untouched but that's still better than most of the rest of the world! But whether you have had a warm to hot downunder new year or a US or European snowy one, it would be much more of a pleasure if you knew that there were not those 5,600 land- based ICBM warheads plus submarine and bomber based warheads, on 24 hour a day immmediate, launch-on-warning status. That could ruin your entire new year, especially knowing that the oldest, largest, most complex, and previously least Y2K compliant computer systems in the world perform command, communications, control, and intelligence for nuclear weapons systems. These systems will only experience the rollover some 9-18 hours after Australia does. So new years day could be nervous, at least for those of us who think of such things. Sure, the Pentagon say they have spent $3.6billion to make their nuclear combat command, communication, and control systems Y2K compliant. Sure, the US and Russia have established a joint Y2K 'Strategic Stability Centre' next to the Cheyyenne Mountain Complex in Colorado. And it is important - indeed crucial - that they have done this. However, we hope they have by now managed to fix the hotlines set up during the cold war, and discovered to be non Y2K compliant in September. If nuclear weapons could not be immediately launched, then not only over the nervous Y2K rollover period, when US and Russian officers are going to EXPECT false alerts, blank screens, and communication blackouts, but at any other time when also false alerts have happened, decision makers would never be forced into the situation in which they have to decide whether to blow up the world in five minutes, perhaps at 3am in the morning when very much the worse for wear after new years drinkies. The best gift Clinton or Yeltsin can give the world is to do as two resolutions passed by the United Nations General Assembly a year ago with massive majorities, and another two passed this year with massive majorities, two resolutions passed by the Australian Senate and one resolution passed unanimously by the European Parliament have reccommended - - to take nuclear weapons off hairtrigger alert and place them in a status in which launch on warning is no longer possible. A letter signed by 500 global environmental organisations, arms control groups, religious bodies, NGOs, and Parliamentarians asking for nuclear weapons to be taken off alert for the new year was faxed to Yeltsin and Clinton some days ago. It will be faxed again on 29th or 30th. Clinton, Cohen, and Yeltsin have now been recieving an awful lot of faxes and phonecalls asking them to take missiles off alert. Ask President Clinton, President Yeltsin, and their secretaries and ministers for defence (Cohen and Sergeyev) to do this. If you have access to a fax machine, a single page A4 fax even to the Kremlin should cost you round a dollar. (public fax facilities charge an arm and a leg so don't bother with them). The best fax is handwritten, not typed. Do it now - It's Christmas Eve tomorrow (or it is here in Sydney). You can fax for free on: http://www.fax4free.com You can fax Clinton on +1-202-456-2461 You can fax US defence secy Cohen on 1-703-695-1149 You can fax Yeltsin and Sergeyev on +7-095-205-4330. There are sample letters below. You should shorten them and use your own words. You don't need to write anything near as long as this. Use what you want of these sample letters in your own way, and preferably, handwrite don't type. 1) SAMPLE LETTER TO COHEN/CLINTON (Please customise and shorten) TO: WILLIAM COHEN, US SECRETARY OF DEFENCE, +1-703-695-1149, PRESIDENT BILL CLINTON, WHITE HOUSE, WASHINGTON, US, +1-202-456-2461, +1-202-456-2883. Dear President Clinton and Secretary for Defence Cohen, I am writing to urge your administration to take US nuclear forces off 'hairtrigger alert' even if only during the Y2K rollover period, to ask that any false alarms or 'near misses' over the Y2K rollover and at any other time be reported publicly, and to ask that the Y2K strategic stability centre's operations be extended preferably indefinitely but at least till May. There is little time to act, and an immediate decision to place nuclear weapons in a status in which immediate launch is impossible is essential to ensure global stability. As you will be aware, the European Parliament recently voted to ask you and President Yeltsin to do as the UK has already done, and de-alert nuclear weapons. De-alerting of nuclear forces was strongly recommended by the Canberra Commission in 1996 and then by the Tokyo Forum, as a way to develop strategic stability and build trust between the US and Russia. It has also been incorporated into last year's and this years text of the New Agenda Resolution in the UN General Assembly. It has also been reccommended by a resolution specifically on the subject passed by last years General Assembly and by this years First Committee on Reduction of Nuclear Dangers. In addition it has been the subject of two resolutions passed by the Australian Senate on 12 August and 20 September, and finally it has been clearly requested by the European Parliament. It is also the subject of congressional resolution H.Con Res177 put by Edward Markey, and most recently, the City of Berkeley has asked for it. De-Alerting and the establishment of the Y2K strategic stability centre are not in competition with each other. Indeed, we urge strongly that the strategic stability centres operations be extended indefinitely. Reductions in the number of weapons, the establishment of shared early warning centers and de-alerting are all vital to the reduction of tension and the establishment of strategic stability. This is particularly the case in view of the uncertainties posed by the millennium date change (Y2K). As you are well aware, the largest and oldest computer system complexes in the world are those that control nuclear weapons systems. The very nature of the Y2K problem makes it impossible to be sure everything has been fixed until well into the new year. Russia has, until recently, made little effort to even acknowledge the Y2K problem, let alone fix it. It is therefore quite possible that Russian computerized control systems are not Y2K compliant and that they will experience widespread failures during the Y2K rollover period. Even more disquieting is the fact that that the Russians have constructed the system known as 'Perimeter', or the 'dead hand'. This system seems to include additional ways in which Y2K failure might lead to an accidental launch. The establishment of a Y2K strategic stability center in Colorado is certainly an advantageous move and an absolutely essential one, but it does not entirely remove the danger of an accidental launch of nuclear weapons. The fact that the Center is scheduled, as far as we the public are aware, to come into operation only on December 27th, four days prior to the rollover, is far from reassuring. A four day delay will render it useless. Similarly, the center itself will depend on the availability of ultra-reliable hotlines between it and Moscow. The Y2K vulnerabilities recently discovered in six of the seven hotlines on which US/Russian communications depends, are also cause for deep concern. If nuclear weapons are removed from a status in which they can be launched within minutes, and placed in one which would require at least days to launch, the risk of an accidental missile launch induced by Y2K or other errors in command and control systems will be virtually eliminated. This has already been done by the UK, which has moved the 'notice to fire' for its missile forces from minutes to days. The United States is making a serious error in failing to consider de-alerting. Failure to take nuclear forces off hairtrigger alert over the Y2K 'rollover' period is an error that has the potential of causing unthinkable consequences. The probability of this may be low, but it will never be zero as long as nuclear forces remain on hair-trigger alert. This will continue to be so after the immmediate Y2K 'rollover' period. In a previous administration, President Bush took strategic bomber forces off alert. We urge you to do this with all US nuclear forces. (SIGNED) etc. 2) SAMPLE LETTER TO YELTSIN/DEFENCE MINISTER SERGEYEV (Please customise and shorten) PRESIDENT BORIS YELTSIN, IGOR SERGEYEV, RUSSIAN DEFENCE MINISTER, +7-095-205-4330, Dear Defence Minister Sergeyev and President Yeltsin, I am writing to convey my deep concern that Y2K-related computer failures in the command and control systems for nuclear weapons may lead to an accidental nuclear war. I am aware that both Russia and the US have taken this problem seriously enough to establish a joint strategic stability center in Colorado. However, I am very much concerned that this facility will come into operation only by 27th December 1999, so that a delay of just four days will make it useless. This facility is however, essential to the security of the world, and should continue to operate indefinitely. I am also very much concerned that Y2K problems have been found recently in six out of seven of the 'hotlines' that would be used if a crisis of any sort arose over the Y2K rollover period. I am aware that there have been a number of occasions when either the US or Russia have mistakenly believed that the other nation was in the process of launching a nuclear attack. With 3,600 Russian warheads on 700 missiles and 2,000 US warheads on 500 missiles, with each side capable to launch within roughly 20 minutes, this must never be allowed to happen, either over the Y2K 'rollover', or at any other time. The use of 5,600 warheads would certainly mean the end of what we call civilization, would likely mean the end of the human race and could possibly mean the end of all life. I therefore urge both you and the United States, to place all your nuclear forces in a status in which at least days not minutes, would be required to launch. The United Kingdom has, I understand, already done this. The European Parliament has recently called on both the US and Russia to de-alert nuclear weapons and to place them in a state similar to that in which the UK has placed its weapons. De-alerting of nuclear forces was strongly recommended by the Canberra Commission in 1996 and then by the Tokyo Forum, as a way to develop strategic stability and build trust between the US and Russia. It has also been incorporated into last year's and this years text of the New Agenda Resolution in the UN General Assembly. It has also been recommended by a resolution specifically on the subject passed by last years General Assembly and by this years First Committee on Reduction of Nuclear Dangers. In addition it has been the subject of two resolutions passed by the Australian Senate on 12 August and 20 September, and finally it has been clearly requested by the European Parliament. It is also the subject of congressional resolution H.Con Res177 put by Edward Markey, and most recently, the City of Berkeley has asked for it. In this context I am particularly concerned that statements have been made in which the threat of nuclear weapons has been raised, and that new missiles have been deployed and placed on alert status. As what is at stake is potentially the survival of the entire planet, no considerations, even the highest considerations of national security, can take priority. The immediate stakes are so high and the potential for global catastrophe is so great, that de-alerting of nuclear forces in the face of the Y2K computer problem and the long-term possibility of false alerts must take precedence over all other considerations of political and national security. (Signed) etc. John Hallam Friends of the Earth Sydney, 17 Lord Street, Newtown, NSW, Australia, 2042 Fax (61)(2)9517-3902 ph (61)(2)9517-3903 nonukes@foesyd.org.au http://homepages.tig.com.au/~foesyd http://homepages.tig.com.au/~foesyd/nuclear/bbletter.html - - To unsubscribe to abolition-usa, send an email to "majordomo@xmission.com" with "unsubscribe abolition-usa" in the body of the message. For information on digests or retrieving files and old messages send "help" to the same address. Do not use quotes in your message. ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 27 Dec 1999 12:56:56 -0500 From: ASlater Subject: (abolition-usa) Re: Inviting NPT speakers Dear All, Just for the record, I presented the proposal to the Board of the NGO Committee on Disarmament on December 14th (about 15 members were there) after receiving the support of the Abolition 2000 Coordinating Committee and after it had been circulated to the Abolition Global Council. The proposal was first made at the Hague Appeal for Peace, at an INESAP panel and can be seen in the INESAP Bulletin of August 1999. We discussed it in Russia at the Abolition 2000 Meeting in St. Petersburg in June. I also discussed it in Vancouver at the Simons Foundation Strategy Conference and received positive feedback. Rebecca Johnson of Acronym thought it was "brilliant" and Sharon Riggles of CSED thought I should try to go ahead with it too when I spoke to them about it this fall during Disarmament Week. Cora Weiss said she would help with her contacts through the Hague Appeal for Peace. GRACE has a fund to make this happen and I thought it would be a good use of our resources to bring the NPT to the attention of the US public, where nuclear disarmament is most stuck, by making it a mediagenic event. Rebecca suggested, in light of the process that had been established by the NGO Committee on Disarmament, that NGOs be invited to do briefing papers for the public figures in order to maintain the high quality of their involvement and participation that had been established in the prepcom process over the past 3 years. With all the positive feedback I received, I brought the proposal to the NGO Committee on Disarmament where it was discussed and voted on. The proposal was approved without dissent, to send a letter from the NGO Committee inviting prominent speakers among NGOs and to invite briefing papers from NGOs who had participated in the past. It was agreed that the letter had to go out before the New Year as it was already rather late to schedule some of our prospective invitees. On December 15th I delivered a draft letter to the Chair of the Committee, Vernon Nichols, and left it under his door. I also communicated by email with the subcommittee who had volunteered to whittle down the list of prospective invitees. The subcommittee was Dorrie Weiss, Myrna Pena, Ann Lakhdir and myself. I shared by email the draft letter and all communications I had received about the proposal with the sub-committee--having posted a second request to the abolition caucus for suggested speakers, after Roger Smith posted his report of what had transpired on December 14. I don't think the idea is, as Ann suggests, "unrealistic". What was unrealistic was to believe that after the NGO Board voted on something, they would actually stick to it. It's still a good idea and I hope someone can make it happen. I urge you to reflect on Ann Lakhdir comment that "I have already talked with some people in the UN, who are far from enthusiastic about invitations to Gorbachev and Carter." Does the UN have a say on who NGOs can invite to speak at their NGO sessions? Who at the UN? Carter and Gorbachev were two names on the list to which no one raised objection since last May when they were first proposed at the Hague. (I am re-posting the proposed speakers, amended with suggestions from the caucus.) On the evening of the 15th, I became aware of the possibility raised by Ann as a reason to delay action, that the date for the speakers might change and spoke with Stephanie Fraser, Felicity Hill and Cora Weiss about couching the letter from the NGO Committee in more general terms but giving the speakers a heads up about the approximate time the NGO session would occur. We also discussed doing more individualized follow-up letters from personal contacts of the invitees. The undertainty of the date is not an obstacle to beginning the invitation process. I also spoke to Tamara Malenova who works for the Disarmament Secretariat who said a decision could possibly be made in January. She asked me to write a letter to the Secretariat informing them of our plans which I told her should come not from me but from the NGO Committee on Disarmament. But alas, the next thing I knew there was backtracking on the vote that took place, and Ann informed me we would have to wait for next month's NGO Board meeting to see whether the proposal would move forward. If we wait until after next month's NGO Board meeting, we will not be able to forward our letter to the Disarmament Secretariat before they meet with the new Chair of the NPT from Algeria. As I wrote in August, for the INESAP Bulletin, "During the 2000 Review we must put the spotlight on the review conference. We should begin now to invite the most renowned world figures to stand for abolition before the delegates in 2000....The 2000 Review should be a mass media event." With the saber rattling from Russia, the US attempt to abrogate the ABM treaty, two new announced nuclear powers on the scene since the 95 Review, and the defeat of the CTBT in the US Senate, bold measures are called for. Expert NGOs now know the ropes around the UN. They know how to get their materials in to the delegates early. A number of us believe that there's no need for them to present their material orally to the delegates, as was done at the last three PrepComs. GRACE has offered to provide mailing labels to any NGO who wishes to mail to the UN missions. The critical need this year is to alert US public opinion that the NPT is happening and create a groundswell for nuclear disarmament. In other words, NPT should become a household word like WTO. By organizing a session of world leaders, public figures, filling in with moving downwinders, hibakusha, eloquent indigenous leaders and other victims of the toxic legacy of the nuclear age we could focus world attention on the precarious state of the NPT and the need for the nuclear weapons states to fulfill their Article VI obligations and begin negotiations on a treaty to eliminate nuclear weapons. In response to Oliver Meier's posting, it's not the credibility of the NGOs that s at stake here, but the credibility of the nuclear weapons states who continue to cling to the rusty cold war doctrine of deterrence. I don't know how what process we can use to arrive at a consensus on this process as Roger Smith suggests is needed, other than the vote that was already taken at the NGO Committee. The NGOs described as having a "stake in the process" are laced with "arms controllers" supporting the hegemony of the nuclear weapons states and the "ultimate elimination of nuclear weapons." Their goal appears to be non-proliferation, not abolition. In any event, upon reconsideration, if a consensus does develop on the need to make the NPT newsworthy by using world leaders, public figures and eloquent downwinders (taking a leaf from the land mines campaign which moved the world by showing the human face of suffering)to draw attention to the precarious state of the world and the NPT itself, and should a consensus develop with adequate time to notify prominent speakers, and prepare a proper public relations campaign in favor of nuclear abolition, GRACE would revisit its offer to provide funds to make it happen. Let's all think about this for the New Year. If we don't get blown up by nuclear power plants or mixed messages from computers tracking nuclear weapons on hair trigger alert, maybe we can give profound thanks to God that we still have what might be our last chance to save the world from nuclear disaster and the beginning of a new nuclear arms race on earth and in the heavens. With all best wishes and hopes for a better Century than the one we've almost just come through. Peace, Alice Slater Global Resource Action Center for the Environment (GRACE) 15 East 26th Street, Room 915 New York, NY 10010 tel: (212) 726-9161 fax: (212) 726-9160 email: aslater@gracelinks.org http://www.gracelinks.org GRACE is a member of Abolition 2000, a global network working for a treaty to eliminate nuclear weapons. - - To unsubscribe to abolition-usa, send an email to "majordomo@xmission.com" with "unsubscribe abolition-usa" in the body of the message. For information on digests or retrieving files and old messages send "help" to the same address. Do not use quotes in your message. ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 27 Dec 1999 13:11:51 -0500 From: ASlater Subject: (abolition-usa) Re: Inviting NPT speakers Dear Friends, Here's the list of proposed invitees, collected by email, meetings, etc. John Burroughs pointed out that elected officials and royalty should not be eligible to represent civil society and if you agree, that would help us to whittle the list down. There are seven people in that category: Clark, Roche, Woolsey, Markey, Noor, Talal, Charles. Hope we can develop a process for decision making--but in any event you now have all the info that I have. Peace, Alice Slater Oscar Arias Archbishop Tutu Jose Ramos Horta Mikhail Gorbachev Thich Nhat Hanh Nelson Mandela Graciela Machel Mairead Corrigan Maguire Grace Thorpe Oren Lyons Joseph Rotblat Ted Taylor Jimmy Carter Arundhati Roy Helen Caldicott Prince Charles Paul Newman Michael Douglas Joanne Woodward Martin Sheen Warren Beatty Susan Sarandon Meryl Streep Lee Butler Admiral Ramdas Robert McNamara Queen Noor Judge Weermanty Jonathan Schell Lech Walesca Jodi Williams Marianne Willianson Alan Cranston Oprah Winfrey Barbara Streisand Walter Cronkite Ted Turner Pierce Brosnahan Maya Angelou Lynne Woolsey Ed Markey Stanisfield Turner The Baldwin Family Mayor of Hiroshima Mayor of Nagasaki Amartya Sen Douglas Roche Helen Clark Rob Green Jacqui Katona Winona la Duke Seamus Heaney Wole Solinka Miyoko Matsubara Alice Slater Global Resource Action Center for the Environment (GRACE) 15 East 26th Street, Room 915 New York, NY 10010 tel: (212) 726-9161 fax: (212) 726-9160 email: aslater@gracelinks.org http://www.gracelinks.org GRACE is a member of Abolition 2000, a global network working for a treaty to eliminate nuclear weapons. - - To unsubscribe to abolition-usa, send an email to "majordomo@xmission.com" with "unsubscribe abolition-usa" in the body of the message. For information on digests or retrieving files and old messages send "help" to the same address. Do not use quotes in your message. ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 27 Dec 1999 14:18:25 -0500 From: WAND Subject: (abolition-usa) Re: Inviting NPT speakers etc I forwarded your message, etc. to our NGO delegate, Sayre Sheldon. Happy New Year, Alice, and thank you for all that you do! Susan left,left,left,left,left,left***************************************** Susan Shaer, Executive Director WAND, Women's Action for New Directions 691 Massachusetts Avenue Arlington, MA 02476 781-643-6740 fax 781-643-6744 < Mission: To empower women to act politically to reduce militarism and violence and to redirect excessive military spending to human and environmental needs. WAND is the only national peace organization linking women legislators across the country with local women activists as well as women in Congress in order to address issues of militarism, violence, and human needs. - - To unsubscribe to abolition-usa, send an email to "majordomo@xmission.com" with "unsubscribe abolition-usa" in the body of the message. For information on digests or retrieving files and old messages send "help" to the same address. Do not use quotes in your message. ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 27 Dec 1999 15:15:06 -0500 From: ASlater Subject: Re: (abolition-usa) Re: Inviting NPT speakers etc Thanks Susan--Happy New Millenium to you too. Love, Alice At 01:18 PM 12/27/1999 -0500, you wrote: >I forwarded your message, etc. to our NGO delegate, Sayre Sheldon. >Happy New Year, Alice, and thank you for all that you do! > >Susan > > > > > >***************************************** > > >Susan Shaer, Executive Director >WAND, Women's Action for New Directions >691 Massachusetts Avenue >Arlington, MA 02476 >781-643-6740 >fax 781-643-6744 > > >Mission: To empower women to act politically to reduce militarism and >violence and to redirect excessive military spending to human and >environmental needs. > >WAND is the only national peace organization linking women legislators >across the country with local women activists as well as women in Congress >in order to address issues of militarism, violence, and human needs. >- To unsubscribe to abolition-usa, send an email to >"majordomo@xmission.com" with "unsubscribe abolition-usa" in the body of >the message. For information on digests or retrieving files and old >messages send "help" to the same address. Do not use quotes in your >message. > Alice Slater Global Resource Action Center for the Environment (GRACE) 15 East 26th Street, Room 915 New York, NY 10010 tel: (212) 726-9161 fax: (212) 726-9160 email: aslater@gracelinks.org http://www.gracelinks.org GRACE is a member of Abolition 2000, a global network working for a treaty to eliminate nuclear weapons. - - To unsubscribe to abolition-usa, send an email to "majordomo@xmission.com" with "unsubscribe abolition-usa" in the body of the message. For information on digests or retrieving files and old messages send "help" to the same address. Do not use quotes in your message. ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 28 Dec 1999 18:21:57 +1000 From: FoE Sydney - Nuclear Campaign Subject: (abolition-usa) Rocket experts fear false signal from Kremlin December 27, 1999 Rocket experts fear false signal from Kremlin By Rowan Scarborough THE WASHINGTON TIMES (front page) As the century changes on Dec. 31, a computer-generated false signal could send rocketeers on quickly paced launch procedures for Russia's 756 intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs). Russia's deteriorating nuclear force is causing some experts to worry that a year-2000 computer glitch could spawn a false signal from early warning radars or satellites that the country is under attack. Bruce Blair, a Brookings Institution analyst and leading authority on Russia's sprawling atomic arsenal, said the Strategic Rocket Force operates on a hair-trigger "launch on warning" doctrine. As the century changes on Dec. 31, a computer-generated false signal could send rocketeers on quickly paced launch procedures for Russia's 756 intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs). "They have about 2,000 weapons they can fire at the United States on a moment's notice, and the main option for firing them is 'launch on warning' at a time when their early warning network is deteriorating badly and at a time when they're suspicious of the West," said Mr. Blair, who as an Air Force officer in the 1970s manned a U.S. Minuteman missile silo. Asked the odds of a false signal triggering an ICBM launch, Mr. Blair said, "It's clear that the likelihood of such an event is higher as a result of Y2K than it would otherwise. . . . [But] this should in all likelihood be a case of fail safe and not fail deadly." The Pentagon, however, says there is no chance for a deadly miscalculation. The department has gone to extraordinary lengths diplomatically and financially to make sure New Year's Eve does not turn into a real-life "The Day After." Its most visible guard against a calamity is the Center for Year 2000 Strategic Stability at Peterson Air Force Base, Colo. There, beginning Dec. 30, Russian and American officers will sit side by side at computer screens 24-hours a day. Their job: Monitor data from U.S. Space Command sensors, primarily long-range radars and satellites that detect the heat of a rocket blastoff. "We really do not worry about Russia, missiles going off, or early-warning systems getting false reports or anything like that," said Deputy Defense Secretary John Hamre. "We're confident that will not be the case." Added Peter Verga, a Pentagon policy-maker, "If an early warning radar in Russia fails, we think it would be because the power went out, which is a local time-zone problem, and not because there's a fundamental problem within the system." The department, which has spent $3.6 billion on year-2000 compliance, has invested $10 million in Russian weapons computers to ensure they don't misread the date rollover to 2000. Technicians also ridded the Moscow-Washington "hot line" of any potential bugs and installed backup telephone connections. At Peterson, a missile launch anywhere in the world will be picked up by Defense Support Program (DSP) satellites and then tracked by radars. Inside the Peterson center, officers will know the launch location and time, whether the rocket is an ICBM or space vehicle, the "threat fan" of potential targets and projected impact point. The center has communications links to Moscow's warning center so Russian officers in the United States can verify any launch activity detected back home. Space Command believes that by 4 p.m. (ET) Dec. 31 =97 the millennium rollover in Moscow =97 officials will know if Russia's warning system is glitch-free. U.S. military forces are on Greenwich Mean Time and will enter the new century at 7 p.m. (ET). "Once we get through the Moscow rollover, we'll have a very good indication of how Moscow has gotten through the rollover," said Maj. Perry Nouis, a spokesman for the U.S. Space Command. "We think it's going to be a quiet night for everybody. That's what our hope is." Steven Zaloga, an expert on Russian strategic weapons and an aerospace consultant, said Moscow lost a large share of its ICBM-tracking radars with the breakaway of old Soviet republics. For example, Latvia recently shut down the radar on its soil. Russia's other mechanism for monitoring U.S. missiles, the system of orbiting Oko infrared satellites, has wide gaps in coverage because Moscow lacks the money to replace them. "Their early warning system has so many gaps and problems with it, one would hope they have the sense to appreciate that they may get some kind of false readings," Mr. Zaloga said. "Their command-and-control network is in very, very bad shape," he added. "They don't have reliable missile early warning, which is really a critical element of command and control. The problem I see with the Russian government, it has a very unsophisticated and naive view of nuclear forces. The Russian military over the years has held a monopoly on distribution of information on nuclear forces." Still, Mr. Zaloga concluded that the Russians exercise sufficient human control in Moscow to head off any rash decisions on New Year's Eve. He said that in the early 1980s, shortly after the first Oko went into space, a satellite sent back a false-positive based on a heat signature from the sun appearing on the horizon. Fortunately, he said, a Russian officer dismissed the signal as bogus and did not initiate alert procedures. "These missiles don't go off automatically," Mr. Zaloga said. "There is a human element in the Russian command-and-control system." One thing is clear. Moscow and Washington approach the date switch amid worsening relations and mistrust. Russia is particularly jittery over three developments: NATO expansion to its old Soviet borders; the air war on Serbia that showed the power and reach of American strategic bombers; and the U.S. intention to build a national defense against ballistic missiles. Meanwhile, Washington has protested Russia's brutal military crackdown in Chechnya and is growing concerned over Moscow's increasingly bellicose statements on nuclear weapons. In Beijing earlier this month, Russian President Boris Yeltsin said President Clinton "has forgotten Russia is a great power that possesses a nuclear arsenal." Last week, Col. Gen. Vladimir Yakovlev, chief of the country's Strategic Rocket Force, was quoted as saying, "Russia, for objective reasons, is forced to lower the threshold for using nuclear weapons. . . . " Mr. Blair sees the acid atmosphere as possibly leading to nuclear miscalculation. He also sees shortfalls in Pentagon planning. =46or example, at the Peterson year-2000 center, Russian officers will not see the raw data that pours into the top-secret national warning center at Cheyenne Mountain 12 miles away. Instead, they will view processed signals. The arrangement raises a dicey scenario. If Moscow's system says it is under attack, who do the Russians believe? Their own data or assurances from an American air base? "The sole point of contact between the two militaries will be here at Peterson to make sure that no one in either country operates in a vacuum," Maj. Nouis said. Said Mr. Blair, "As far as I can tell, we have fixed the Y2K problems with our nuclear forces. The Russians have not. They have admitted they are behind schedule. . . . This Y2K center is just a Band-Aid that diverts attention from the deeper problem of deterioration of Russian control over their nuclear arsenal" Peter Pry's book, "War Scare: Russia and America on the Nuclear Brink," documents the poor state of the old Soviet arsenal. One would expect him to sound the alarm over the looming 2000 date change. But he's not. "A lot of people on the left and right have really hyped the Y2K thing for different ulterior motives," Mr. Pry said. "I think it's been much exaggerated, the dangers of an electronic glitch, something going radically wrong with their computer system . . . It's hard for me to imagine a false attack happening." Mr. Pry, a staffer on the House Armed Services Committee, said one prospect does worry him: how will the Russian generals react if an early-warning radar blacks out? "That could be dangerous," he said. "Then you have the general staff wondering, why did it black out. 'Is this the first wave of attack?' " Mr. Pry said year-2000 pessimists point to a 1995 incident as evidence of how Russia's weakening nuclear control could produce a fatal mistake. In January of that year, Russian nuclear forces went on alert after the launch of a Norwegian weather rocket. Some Russians initially misinterpreted the flight as a U.S. submarine ballistic missile fired as the first stage of an all-out attack. But rather than viewing the incident as a precursor to year-2000, Mr. Pry said it is a better indication of Russian mistrust toward the West. "There was no mechanical failure or computer failure," said the ex-CIA analyst. "It was a human failure." - - To unsubscribe to abolition-usa, send an email to "majordomo@xmission.com" with "unsubscribe abolition-usa" in the body of the message. For information on digests or retrieving files and old messages send "help" to the same address. Do not use quotes in your message. ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 28 Dec 1999 18:42:27 +1000 From: FoE Sydney - Nuclear Campaign Subject: (abolition-usa) Will there still be 5000 warheads on alert after Dec 31? If you read the item on the front page of the Washington Post, recently posted to the various lists, you will surely want to let US Secretary of Defence Willam S. Cohen, and Presidents Yeltsin and Clinton know how you feel about having 5000 nuclear weapons on hairtrigger alert over the Y2K rollover. And if as is to be hoped, nothing at all happens over the year end rollover, there will STILL be 5000 nuclear warheads on hairtrigger alert. The oldest, largest, most complex, and previously least Y2K compliant computer systems in the world perform command, communications, control, and intelligence for nuclear weapons systems, and even without Y2K there have been a series of frightening near- misses. These systems will only experience the rollover some 9-18 hours after Australia does. So new years day could be nervous, at least for those of us who think of such things. Sure, the Pentagon say they have spent $3.6billion to make their nuclear combat command, communication, and control systems Y2K compliant. Sure, the US and Russia have established a joint Y2K 'Strategic Stability Centre' next to the Cheyyenne Mountain Complex in Colorado. And it is important - indeed crucial - that they have done this. However, we hope they have by now managed to fix the hotlines set up during the cold war, and discovered to be non Y2K compliant in September. If nuclear weapons could not be immediately launched, then not only over the nervous Y2K rollover period, when US and Russian officers are going to EXPECT false alerts, blank screens, and communication blackouts, but at any other time when also false alerts have happened, decision makers would never be forced into the situation in which they have to decide whether to blow up the world in five minutes, perhaps at 3am in the morning when very much the worse for wear after new years drinkies. The best gift Clinton or Yeltsin can give the world is to do as two resolutions passed by the United Nations General Assembly a year ago with massive majorities, and another two passed this year with massive majorities, two resolutions passed by the Australian Senate and one resolution passed unanimously by the European Parliament have reccommended - - to take nuclear weapons off hairtrigger alert and place them in a status in which launch on warning is no longer possible. A letter signed by 500 global environmental organisations, arms control groups, religious bodies, NGOs, and Parliamentarians asking for nuclear weapons to be taken off alert for the new year was faxed to Yeltsin and Clinton some days ago. It will be faxed again on 29th or 30th. Clinton, Cohen, and Yeltsin have now been recieving an awful lot of faxes and phonecalls asking them to take missiles off alert. Ask President Clinton, President Yeltsin, and their secretaries and ministers for defence (Cohen and Sergeyev) to do this. If you have access to a fax machine, a single page A4 fax even to the Kremlin should cost you round a dollar. (public fax facilities charge an arm and a leg so don't bother with them). The best fax is handwritten, not typed. Do it now - It's Christmas Eve tomorrow (or it is here in Sydney). You can fax for free on: http://www.fax4free.com You can fax Clinton on +1-202-456-2461 You can fax US defence secy Cohen on 1-703-695-1149 You can fax Yeltsin and Sergeyev on +7-095-205-4330. There are sample letters below. You should shorten them and use your own words. You don't need to write anything near as long as this. Use what you want of these sample letters in your own way, and preferably, handwrite don't type. 1) SAMPLE LETTER TO COHEN/CLINTON (Please customise and shorten) TO: WILLIAM COHEN, US SECRETARY OF DEFENCE, +1-703-695-1149, PRESIDENT BILL CLINTON, WHITE HOUSE, WASHINGTON, US, +1-202-456-2461, +1-202-456-2883. Dear President Clinton and Secretary for Defence Cohen, I am writing to urge your administration to take US nuclear forces off 'hairtrigger alert' even if only during the Y2K rollover period, to ask that any false alarms or 'near misses' over the Y2K rollover and at any other time be reported publicly, and to ask that the Y2K strategic stability centre's operations be extended preferably indefinitely but at least till May. There is little time to act, and an immediate decision to place nuclear weapons in a status in which immediate launch is impossible is essential to ensure global stability. As you will be aware, the European Parliament recently voted to ask you and President Yeltsin to do as the UK has already done, and de-alert nuclear weapons. De-alerting of nuclear forces was strongly recommended by the Canberra Commission in 1996 and then by the Tokyo Forum, as a way to develop strategic stability and build trust between the US and Russia. It has also been incorporated into last year's and this years text of the New Agenda Resolution in the UN General Assembly. It has also been reccommended by a resolution specifically on the subject passed by last years General Assembly and by this years First Committee on Reduction of Nuclear Dangers. In addition it has been the subject of two resolutions passed by the Australian Senate on 12 August and 20 September, and finally it has been clearly requested by the European Parliament. It is also the subject of congressional resolution H.Con Res177 put by Edward Markey, and most recently, the City of Berkeley has asked for it. De-Alerting and the establishment of the Y2K strategic stability centre are not in competition with each other. Indeed, we urge strongly that the strategic stability centres operations be extended indefinitely. Reductions in the number of weapons, the establishment of shared early warning centers and de-alerting are all vital to the reduction of tension and the establishment of strategic stability. This is particularly the case in view of the uncertainties posed by the millennium date change (Y2K). As you are well aware, the largest and oldest computer system complexes in the world are those that control nuclear weapons systems. The very nature of the Y2K problem makes it impossible to be sure everything has been fixed until well into the new year. Russia has, until recently, made little effort to even acknowledge the Y2K problem, let alone fix it. It is therefore quite possible that Russian computerized control systems are not Y2K compliant and that they will experience widespread failures during the Y2K rollover period. Even more disquieting is the fact that that the Russians have constructed the system known as 'Perimeter', or the 'dead hand'. This system seems to include additional ways in which Y2K failure might lead to an accidental launch. The establishment of a Y2K strategic stability center in Colorado is certainly an advantageous move and an absolutely essential one, but it does not entirely remove the danger of an accidental launch of nuclear weapons. The fact that the Center is scheduled, as far as we the public are aware, to come into operation only on December 27th, four days prior to the rollover, is far from reassuring. A four day delay will render it useless. Similarly, the center itself will depend on the availability of ultra-reliable hotlines between it and Moscow. The Y2K vulnerabilities recently discovered in six of the seven hotlines on which US/Russian communications depends, are also cause for deep concern. If nuclear weapons are removed from a status in which they can be launched within minutes, and placed in one which would require at least days to launch, the risk of an accidental missile launch induced by Y2K or other errors in command and control systems will be virtually eliminated. This has already been done by the UK, which has moved the 'notice to fire' for its missile forces from minutes to days. The United States is making a serious error in failing to consider de-alerting. Failure to take nuclear forces off hairtrigger alert over the Y2K 'rollover' period is an error that has the potential of causing unthinkable consequences. The probability of this may be low, but it will never be zero as long as nuclear forces remain on hair-trigger alert. This will continue to be so after the immmediate Y2K 'rollover' period. In a previous administration, President Bush took strategic bomber forces off alert. We urge you to do this with all US nuclear forces. (SIGNED) etc. 2) SAMPLE LETTER TO YELTSIN/DEFENCE MINISTER SERGEYEV (Please customise and shorten) PRESIDENT BORIS YELTSIN, IGOR SERGEYEV, RUSSIAN DEFENCE MINISTER, +7-095-205-4330, Dear Defence Minister Sergeyev and President Yeltsin, I am writing to convey my deep concern that Y2K-related computer failures in the command and control systems for nuclear weapons may lead to an accidental nuclear war. I am aware that both Russia and the US have taken this problem seriously enough to establish a joint strategic stability center in Colorado. However, I am very much concerned that this facility will come into operation only by 27th December 1999, so that a delay of just four days will make it useless. This facility is however, essential to the security of the world, and should continue to operate indefinitely. I am also very much concerned that Y2K problems have been found recently in six out of seven of the 'hotlines' that would be used if a crisis of any sort arose over the Y2K rollover period. I am aware that there have been a number of occasions when either the US or Russia have mistakenly believed that the other nation was in the process of launching a nuclear attack. With 3,600 Russian warheads on 700 missiles and 2,000 US warheads on 500 missiles, with each side capable to launch within roughly 20 minutes, this must never be allowed to happen, either over the Y2K 'rollover', or at any other time. The use of 5,600 warheads would certainly mean the end of what we call civilization, would likely mean the end of the human race and could possibly mean the end of all life. I therefore urge both you and the United States, to place all your nuclear forces in a status in which at least days not minutes, would be required to launch. The United Kingdom has, I understand, already done this. The European Parliament has recently called on both the US and Russia to de-alert nuclear weapons and to place them in a state similar to that in which the UK has placed its weapons. De-alerting of nuclear forces was strongly recommended by the Canberra Commission in 1996 and then by the Tokyo Forum, as a way to develop strategic stability and build trust between the US and Russia. It has also been incorporated into last year's and this years text of the New Agenda Resolution in the UN General Assembly. It has also been recommended by a resolution specifically on the subject passed by last years General Assembly and by this years First Committee on Reduction of Nuclear Dangers. In addition it has been the subject of two resolutions passed by the Australian Senate on 12 August and 20 September, and finally it has been clearly requested by the European Parliament. It is also the subject of congressional resolution H.Con Res177 put by Edward Markey, and most recently, the City of Berkeley has asked for it. In this context I am particularly concerned that statements have been made in which the threat of nuclear weapons has been raised, and that new missiles have been deployed and placed on alert status. As what is at stake is potentially the survival of the entire planet, no considerations, even the highest considerations of national security, can take priority. The immediate stakes are so high and the potential for global catastrophe is so great, that de-alerting of nuclear forces in the face of the Y2K computer problem and the long-term possibility of false alerts must take precedence over all other considerations of political and national security. (Signed) etc. John Hallam Friends of the Earth Sydney, 17 Lord Street, Newtown, NSW, Australia, 2042 Fax (61)(2)9517-3902 ph (61)(2)9517-3903 nonukes@foesyd.org.au http://homepages.tig.com.au/~foesyd http://homepages.tig.com.au/~foesyd/nuclear/bbletter.html - - To unsubscribe to abolition-usa, send an email to "majordomo@xmission.com" with "unsubscribe abolition-usa" in the body of the message. For information on digests or retrieving files and old messages send "help" to the same address. Do not use quotes in your message. ------------------------------ End of abolition-usa-digest V1 #241 *********************************** - To unsubscribe to $LIST, send an email to "majordomo@xmission.com" with "unsubscribe $LIST" in the body of the message. For information on digests or retrieving files and old messages send "help" to the same address. Do not use quotes in your message.