From: frank and michele baker Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Growth Stock Analytics Report for March 1, 1999 Date: 01 Mar 1999 07:50:53 -0500 Hey, I like this list. keep it coming. frank Growth Stock Analytics wrote: > Growth Stock Analytics Report for March 1, 1999: > > Source: Growth Stock Analytics' Canslim Based HI-EPSRS Database > http://www.growthstockanalytics.com > > Top 10 GSA Ranked: > JAKKS PACIFIC INC JAKK > XEIKON N.V. ADR XEIKY > FACTORY 2-U STORES INC FTUS > BANK COMM SD/CA BCOM > MOBILE MINI INC MINI > COLORADO MEDTECH INC CMED > BEL FUSE INC BELFA > CONCORD COMMUN INC CCRD > BRASS EAGLE INC XTRM > ADVANCE PARADIGM INC ADVP > > Top 10 Greatest Bargains: > CRAFTMADE INTERNAT INC CRFT > TRENDWEST RESORTS INC TWRI > MICROWAVE POWER DEVICES MPDI > BRASS EAGLE INC XTRM > POMEROY COMPUTER RSCS PMRY > TEREX CORP TEX > SONIC AUTOMOTIVE INC SAH > KOALA CORPORATION KARE > MOBILE MINI INC MINI > BLACK BOX CORP BBOX > > Technical Breakouts: > SOLECTRON CORP SLR > MONTANA POWER CO MTP > ALPHARMA INC ALO > AIRBORNE FREIGHT CORP ABF > ZIONS BANCORPORATION ZION > MORGAN STANLEY DEAN WTTR MWD > STATE STREET CORP STT > FDX CORP FDX > SOUTHWEST AIRLINES CO LUV > AMERICAN EXPRESS CO AXP > > - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com (Jeff Salisbury) Subject: [CANSLIM] Changing your canslim subscription Date: 01 Mar 1999 08:00:02 -0700 This is a monthly posting to the CANLSLIM group. Frequently, people sign up for the canslim list and then are overwhelmed by the volume of the email. There are two remedies for this problem: 1) You can leave our group, or 2) you can switch to the digest version which "conglomerates" many canslim messages into one large message. To change your configuration, email a message to: majordomo@xmission.com The remove yourself from the canslim list, write in the body of the email: unsubscribe canslim To add yourself to the digest version of the canslim list, write in the body of the email: subscribe canslim-digest For general help with majordomo commands, write in the body of the email: help If you need further clarification, write me directly at: canslim-owner@lists.xmission.com Best Regards, Jeff Salisbury - CANSLIM list admin / owner - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: David Laswson Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Growth Stock Analytics Report for March 1, 1999 Date: 01 Mar 1999 10:12:15 -0500 These are CANSLIM stocks. Tim Fisher wrote: > What does this have to do with CANSLIM? Keep this junk OFF THE LIST! I get > enough SPAM already. > > At 11:37 PM 2/27/99 -0500, you wrote: > >Growth Stock Analytics Report for March 1, 1999: > > > >Source: Growth Stock Analytics' Canslim Based HI-EPSRS Database > >http://www.growthstockanalytics.com > > > >Top 10 GSA Ranked: > >JAKKS PACIFIC INC JAKK > >XEIKON N.V. ADR XEIKY > >FACTORY 2-U STORES INC FTUS > >BANK COMM SD/CA BCOM > >MOBILE MINI INC MINI > >COLORADO MEDTECH INC CMED > >BEL FUSE INC BELFA > >CONCORD COMMUN INC CCRD > >BRASS EAGLE INC XTRM > >ADVANCE PARADIGM INC ADVP > > > >Top 10 Greatest Bargains: > >CRAFTMADE INTERNAT INC CRFT > >TRENDWEST RESORTS INC TWRI > >MICROWAVE POWER DEVICES MPDI > >BRASS EAGLE INC XTRM > >POMEROY COMPUTER RSCS PMRY > >TEREX CORP TEX > >SONIC AUTOMOTIVE INC SAH > >KOALA CORPORATION KARE > >MOBILE MINI INC MINI > >BLACK BOX CORP BBOX > > > >Technical Breakouts: > >SOLECTRON CORP SLR > >MONTANA POWER CO MTP > >ALPHARMA INC ALO > >AIRBORNE FREIGHT CORP ABF > >ZIONS BANCORPORATION ZION > >MORGAN STANLEY DEAN WTTR MWD > >STATE STREET CORP STT > >FDX CORP FDX > >SOUTHWEST AIRLINES CO LUV > >AMERICAN EXPRESS CO AXP > > > > > >- > > > > Tim Fisher, 1995 President, Pacific Fishery Biologists > Ore-ROCK-On Rockhounding Web Site > PFB Information > mailto:tim@OreRockOn.com > WWW http://OreRockOn.com > > - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Tim Fisher Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Growth Stock Analytics Report for March 1, 1999 Date: 01 Mar 1999 07:38:51 -0800 I beg to differ. I am familiar with some of them and of those, none meet more than the basic RS/EPS criteria, if that. Please correct me if I'm wrong, but for me, Tom's list has a heck of a lot more value. I am sick of spam and if it looks like spam, smells like spam, and tastes like spam, then for me, it's spam. At 10:12 AM 3/1/99 -0500, you wrote: >These are CANSLIM stocks. > >Tim Fisher wrote: > >> What does this have to do with CANSLIM? Keep this junk OFF THE LIST! I get >> enough SPAM already. >> >> At 11:37 PM 2/27/99 -0500, you wrote: >> >Growth Stock Analytics Report for March 1, 1999: >> > >> >Source: Growth Stock Analytics' Canslim Based HI-EPSRS Database >> >http://www.growthstockanalytics.com >> > >> >Top 10 GSA Ranked: >> >JAKKS PACIFIC INC JAKK >> >XEIKON N.V. ADR XEIKY >> >FACTORY 2-U STORES INC FTUS >> >BANK COMM SD/CA BCOM >> >MOBILE MINI INC MINI >> >COLORADO MEDTECH INC CMED >> >BEL FUSE INC BELFA >> >CONCORD COMMUN INC CCRD >> >BRASS EAGLE INC XTRM >> >ADVANCE PARADIGM INC ADVP >> > >> >Top 10 Greatest Bargains: >> >CRAFTMADE INTERNAT INC CRFT >> >TRENDWEST RESORTS INC TWRI >> >MICROWAVE POWER DEVICES MPDI >> >BRASS EAGLE INC XTRM >> >POMEROY COMPUTER RSCS PMRY >> >TEREX CORP TEX >> >SONIC AUTOMOTIVE INC SAH >> >KOALA CORPORATION KARE >> >MOBILE MINI INC MINI >> >BLACK BOX CORP BBOX >> > >> >Technical Breakouts: >> >SOLECTRON CORP SLR >> >MONTANA POWER CO MTP >> >ALPHARMA INC ALO >> >AIRBORNE FREIGHT CORP ABF >> >ZIONS BANCORPORATION ZION >> >MORGAN STANLEY DEAN WTTR MWD >> >STATE STREET CORP STT >> >FDX CORP FDX >> >SOUTHWEST AIRLINES CO LUV >> >AMERICAN EXPRESS CO AXP >> > Tim Fisher, 1995 President, Pacific Fishery Biologists Ore-ROCK-On Rockhounding Web Site PFB Information mailto:tim@OreRockOn.com WWW http://OreRockOn.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Ronald J. Russell, Jr." Subject: [CANSLIM] FW: Stock Market Crash Index ISELL Signal Date: 01 Mar 1999 21:20:43 -0500 FWIW - I received this note on another email list. Ron -----Original Message----- It appears that we are likely close (2 weeks or so) to a market top... From http://wwfn.com/crashupdate.html "Be advised that the Pitbull Crash Index has gone to a -10 as of today's close." The last -10 signal was generated on 7/24/98. The Market Crash Index has never failed to signal a correction of 20%. - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Growth Stock Analytics" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Growth Stock Analytics Report for March 1, 1999 Date: 01 Mar 1999 21:56:40 -0500 Hi Tim Fisher, I think you're offended by the fact that I post under a commercial name, and have an http address along with it. In your opinion the list that I posted has no value, except that they meet the basic RS/EPS criteria. OK, so at least we've got 3 (C,A,L) of the 7 CANSLIM criteria nailed down. Well that's a start. How about this ADDITIONAL information about the SAME useless stocks: Quarterly Earnings Accelerators: TWRI, MPDI, SAH, KARE, JAKK, QMED, BELFA, CRFT Upside Earnings Surprises: JAKK, XEIKY, BCOM, MINI, BELFA, CCRD, XTRM, ADVP, CRFT, TWRI, MPDI, PMRY. TEX, SAH, KARE Top Ranked Mutual Funds Recently bought into: BELFA, ADVP, SAH, KARE Insiders bought into: JAKK, MINI, BELFA, CCRD, ADVP, TWRI, TEX, SAH, KARE, BBOX And oh by the way, all these stocks either are close to new 52 week highs, or had a strong volume up-day over the past week. Surely, as a CANSLIM investor, all this information must be valuable? From the other responses we've had on this subject, at least two other folks find this list valuable. So unless I hear otherwise from more on this board, we'll do it again next week. Growth Stock Analytics http://www.growthstockanalytics.com ---------- I beg to differ. I am familiar with some of them and of those, none meet more than the basic RS/EPS criteria, if that. Please correct me if I'm wrong, but for me, Tom's list has a heck of a lot more value. I am sick of spam and if it looks like spam, smells like spam, and tastes like spam, then for me, it's spam. At 10:12 AM 3/1/99 -0500, you wrote: >These are CANSLIM stocks. > >Tim Fisher wrote: > >> What does this have to do with CANSLIM? Keep this junk OFF THE LIST! I get >> enough SPAM already. >> >> At 11:37 PM 2/27/99 -0500, you wrote: >> >Growth Stock Analytics Report for March 1, 1999: >> > >> >Source: Growth Stock Analytics' Canslim Based HI-EPSRS Database >> >http://www.growthstockanalytics.com >> > >> >Top 10 GSA Ranked: >> >JAKKS PACIFIC INC JAKK >> >XEIKON N.V. ADR XEIKY >> >FACTORY 2-U STORES INC FTUS >> >BANK COMM SD/CA BCOM >> >MOBILE MINI INC MINI >> >COLORADO MEDTECH INC CMED >> >BEL FUSE INC BELFA >> >CONCORD COMMUN INC CCRD >> >BRASS EAGLE INC XTRM >> >ADVANCE PARADIGM INC ADVP >> > >> >Top 10 Greatest Bargains: >> >CRAFTMADE INTERNAT INC CRFT >> >TRENDWEST RESORTS INC TWRI >> >MICROWAVE POWER DEVICES MPDI >> >BRASS EAGLE INC XTRM >> >POMEROY COMPUTER RSCS PMRY >> >TEREX CORP TEX >> >SONIC AUTOMOTIVE INC SAH >> >KOALA CORPORATION KARE >> >MOBILE MINI INC MINI >> >BLACK BOX CORP BBOX >> > >> >Technical Breakouts: >> >SOLECTRON CORP SLR >> >MONTANA POWER CO MTP >> >ALPHARMA INC ALO >> >AIRBORNE FREIGHT CORP ABF >> >ZIONS BANCORPORATION ZION >> >MORGAN STANLEY DEAN WTTR MWD >> >STATE STREET CORP STT >> >FDX CORP FDX >> >SOUTHWEST AIRLINES CO LUV >> >AMERICAN EXPRESS CO AXP >> > Tim Fisher, 1995 President, Pacific Fishery Biologists Ore-ROCK-On Rockhounding Web Site PFB Information mailto:tim@OreRockOn.com WWW http://OreRockOn.com - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: musicant@autobahn.org (Dan Musicant) Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Investing rules Date: 02 Mar 1999 04:36:45 GMT On Sat, 27 Feb 1999 12:06:35 -0800, you wrote: :I was just browsing around at Db's web page, came across his=20 :page of quotes. At the very end is a list of rules from Jesse=20 :Livermore, probably a good thing for anyone new to investing to=20 :read. At the bottom of the following page - : :http://home.talkcity.com//MoneySt/dbphoenix/CrystalCave.htm : It's one of the best collections of quotes on stock investment/speculation that I've come across. I recognize some of them, many I didn't. I copied the bulk of them into my database of stock related info for future perusal. Thanks, Db.=20 I'm not saying it isn't good for beginners, but with a couple of years of pretty solid experience behind me, I can say that I've learned some of these lessons from experience. That's not to say I can't use reminders! I sure don't want to forget some of the precepts you will see here. Dan - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Growth Stock Analytics Report for March 1, 1999 Date: 02 Mar 1999 05:40:02 -0500 To Growth Stock Analytics: I had a similar reaction to Tim, but decided to take some time to research the list before blasting you for it. One of the strengths of this list, which has helped hold it together for over two years and thru some nasty dogfights, is that: a) no commercials or commercial solicitation; b) no spamming or misuse of the list; c) generally on-topic posts; d) knowing who we are dealing with. You do acknowledge that you are posting from a commercial site, and the very name suggests you are trying to attract customers. I, for one, would be more comfortable knowing your motives, are you posting to attract business or simply sharing for free with us something you charge others? Simply put, can't recall if you ever posted an introduction, nor do I know who you are or what background you possess. I would also, as I previously mentioned, like to hear something about your methodology in selecting stocks for the various categories. Your list appears useful to at least some members. I did see some constructive bases in several on the latest list. I would encourage you to keep posting, but would like to see you respond and clarify the above points. Tom W stkguru@netside.net ICQ # 5568838 -----Original Message----- March 1, 1999 Hi Tim Fisher, I think you're offended by the fact that I post under a commercial name, and have an http address along with it. In your opinion the list that I posted has no value, except that they meet the basic RS/EPS criteria. OK, so at least we've got 3 (C,A,L) of the 7 CANSLIM criteria nailed down. Well that's a start. How about this ADDITIONAL information about the SAME useless stocks: Quarterly Earnings Accelerators: TWRI, MPDI, SAH, KARE, JAKK, QMED, BELFA, CRFT Upside Earnings Surprises: JAKK, XEIKY, BCOM, MINI, BELFA, CCRD, XTRM, ADVP, CRFT, TWRI, MPDI, PMRY. TEX, SAH, KARE Top Ranked Mutual Funds Recently bought into: BELFA, ADVP, SAH, KARE Insiders bought into: JAKK, MINI, BELFA, CCRD, ADVP, TWRI, TEX, SAH, KARE, BBOX And oh by the way, all these stocks either are close to new 52 week highs, or had a strong volume up-day over the past week. Surely, as a CANSLIM investor, all this information must be valuable? >From the other responses we've had on this subject, at least two other folks find this list valuable. So unless I hear otherwise from more on this board, we'll do it again next week. Growth Stock Analytics http://www.growthstockanalytics.com ---------- March 1, 1999 I beg to differ. I am familiar with some of them and of those, none meet more than the basic RS/EPS criteria, if that. Please correct me if I'm wrong, but for me, Tom's list has a heck of a lot more value. I am sick of spam and if it looks like spam, smells like spam, and tastes like spam, then for me, it's spam. - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Peter Newell" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Growth Stock Analytics Report for March 1, 1999 Date: 02 Mar 1999 09:25:50 -0800 Without trying to beat a dead horse I have no objection to someone posting a free list of what they beleive to be "CANSLIM" stocks near their bases. Several other people do. And at least we know what their intentions are. Peter Newell - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "John Adair" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Ian woodard news letter Date: 01 Mar 1999 22:54:30 -0600 I want to subscribe to Ian Woodard's news letter but I dont subscribe to Telescan. Can anyone tell me how. I tried to reach him at www.so??????.com/ianshome and couldn't get through. anyone know? -----Original Message----- - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com (Jeff Salisbury) Subject: [CANSLIM] Sending large files to the canslim group Date: 02 Mar 1999 08:00:02 -0700 Everyone, There are times when you may wish to share large files with our group (i.e. gif, jpeg, spreadsheets, etc). Our list is configured to reject large postings (even if they are properly encoded) since the sheer volume has caused problems in the past. As an alternative, we have provided an anonymous ftp site. To provide your file to the group, please follow these instructions: 1. Send your file to: ftp://ftp.xmission.com/pub/users/m/mcjathan/incoming/ If you need some help doing this step, there are ftp instructions below. 2. Send mail to me directly at "owner-canslim@xmission.com" telling me the name of the file that you uploaded. I will move the file from the incoming directory, to the canslim directory where people will be able to download your file. 3. After I notify you that the file has been moved to the canslim directory, you should send an email to the canslim group describing your file, and its URL (i.e. ftp://ftp.xmission.com/pub/users/m/mcjathan/GreatBoom.gif). Although this may seem unwieldy at first, it really isn't too bad and it solves more problems than it creates. You should note that I do not monitor my email on the weekends as closely as during the week. Therefore, steps 2-3 may take longer over a weekend. Best Regards, Jeff Salisbury =========================================================================== FTP Instructions: 1. Using Netscape, go to the URL: ftp://ftp.xmission.com/pub/users/m/mcjathan/incoming/ 2. On the Netscape "File" menu, select "Upload File..." This will open a file selection widget on your hard-drive. Select the file you wish to upload and hit the "Ok" button. At this point, your file will be uploaded. 3. Eventhough your file has been uploaded, you will not be able to see the file in your netscape browser. The reason for this is that the "incoming" directory is set to write-only for security reasons. - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Tim Fisher Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Ian woodard news letter Date: 02 Mar 1999 07:07:40 -0800 http://www.wallstreetcity.com/Newsletters/highlights/highlights1.asp At 10:54 PM 3/1/99 -0600, you wrote: >I want to subscribe to Ian Woodard's news letter but I dont subscribe to >Telescan. Can anyone tell me how. I tried to reach him at >www.so??????.com/ianshome and couldn't get through. anyone know? >-----Original Message----- > Tim Fisher, 1995 President, Pacific Fishery Biologists Ore-ROCK-On Rockhounding Web Site PFB Information mailto:tim@OreRockOn.com WWW http://OreRockOn.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: dbphoenix Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Growth Stock Analytics Report Date: 02 Mar 1999 08:50:28 -0800 (PST) Commercial or not, I find information like this far more useful than frequent and multiple posts about daytrading non-CANSLIM stocks. If we can't or refuse to be consistent, let's at least be welcoming. --Db == "Lessons are repeated until they are learned." http://home.talkcity.com//MoneySt/dbphoenix/ _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Johan Van Houtven Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Growth Stock Analytics Report Date: 02 Mar 1999 19:03:57 +0100 Nice selection of stocks. Personally, I don't care if you are advertising a commercial service or not, as long as: - it is a good and useful service - you keep the 'advertising' to a minimum - you are willing to share some of your knowledge. While I understand you are not going to give away your trade secrets, I'm convinced that sharing some of your knowledge is the best 'advertising' you can do on the internet. I've already read the stuff on your site many moons ago. I also tried the spreadsheet once. It was a bit to clumsy to handle, as far as I can remember. Scrolling around the spreadsheet with all the added pictures made it quite slow. Is the format (Excel 4) still the same? Which data services do you use to generate your stock pics? Telescan? Wonda? Johan - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: dbphoenix Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Ian woodard news letter Date: 02 Mar 1999 08:46:15 -0800 (PST) <> Here's the address again in case you pasted it incorrectly: http://sosadvisors.com/ianshome.htm If this still doesn't work, just contact him directly: ianforum@aol.com --Db == "Lessons are repeated until they are learned." http://home.talkcity.com//MoneySt/dbphoenix/ _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Chris Miller Subject: [CANSLIM] Hello all Date: 02 Mar 1999 12:35:55 -0500 Just saying Hi to all of you out there. I just started getting this mailing list a few days ago. I am a senior in Finance at Western Michigan University and will be graduating in December. I will be going into stockbroking in the metro Detroit area. I hope to pick up a few things here and hopefully will help some others out in this process. Thanks for reading. Chris Miller - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Johan Van Houtven Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Ian woodard news letter Date: 02 Mar 1999 18:37:16 +0100 John, http://sosadvisors.com/ianshome.htm You do NOT have to be a Telescan subscriber if you use the link above. At 10:54 PM 01-03-99 -0600, you wrote: >I want to subscribe to Ian Woodard's news letter but I dont subscribe to >Telescan. Can anyone tell me how. I tried to reach him at >www.so??????.com/ianshome and couldn't get through. anyone know? >-----Original Message----- > > > > > >- > > Johan - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Craig Griffin Subject: [CANSLIM] David Ryan on CBS Mktwatch Today Date: 02 Mar 1999 17:20:23 -0500 Comments from David Ryan on CBS Marketwatch today (mixed in with the closing report - may disappear soon, not sure where they archive it). (Ryan works with O'Neil - or used to anyway. Both O'Neil Advanced Workshops I have attended were jointly taught with Ryan. And some of the IBD tapes are done by Ryan.). Here is the link: http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/current/snapshot.htx - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Anindo Majumdar Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Level II access Date: 02 Mar 1999 16:08:55 -0800 (PST) So if I have an AB Watley account does that mean I don't neeed softare like Tradestation or TC2000 ? Thanks Anindo > > John, > > You'll have to find out which software and/or broker suis your particular > daytrading style best. It is almost like finding a "suitable" woman. You > need to know what you are looking for, you'll probably have to make some > compromises, and no one can do it for you. > > I'd suggest you give the following solutions a look: > > RT Streaming quotes with intraday and historical charts, but no Level II > access (yet): > > http://www.interquote.com > > And choose a broker that can give you quick execution at a reasonable > price. If you find one that can do this consistently over a period of 3 > years and not miss a beat let me know (for several hundred trades per year). > > Complete solutions (software + brokerage): > > http://www.abwatley.com/ > > http://www.cybercorp.com/ > > If you have access to the TechStocks site check out the threads about > Brokerages/Investment Resources at: > > http://talk.techstocks.com/~wsapi/investor/stocktalk-31 > > Please also realise that very few daytraders are really succesful. So be > careful when someone gives you "daytrading" advice. Unsuccesful daytrading > is probably the fastest way to lose a lot of money in the markets. > > >What advise can you give on the selection of what type of real time data > >feed and real time software would be the most practical for a new day trader > >should purchase. > >John Adair > > > Johan > > > > > > > - > > - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Growth Stock Analytics" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Growth Stock Analytics Report for March 1, 1999 Date: 02 Mar 1999 20:36:03 -0500 Hi Tom, I've taken up enough time on this board - I'll try to be brief in responding to your questions. >>>I, for one, would be more comfortable knowing your motives, are you posting to attract business or simply sharing for free with us something you charge others? Take our posts at face value - it's done to share ideas. We buy for our own account from this very list. Obvously, a second opinion on these stocks from this board woudn't hurt. >>>I would also, as I previously mentioned, like to hear something about your methodology in selecting stocks for the various categories. Methodology is simple - stocks are ranked based on a combination of the following factors: A/D, P/E, Sales Growth, Earnings Growth, Earnings Suprises, Projected Earnings, Earnings Estimate Revisions, Insider Buying, New Highs, Shares, Rel Str, Institutional Ownership, WRSI, Liquidity, Discount to Growth Rates, Tightness in Stock Price Patterns, Analysts Ranking, Net Margins, ROE and D/E Ratios. Top Ranked stocks (75+ out of 100) make the list, and we buy the breakouts. Sometimes there is some "noise" in the data, nothing that a quick look at the stock chart can't fix. Hope that helps. Growth Stock Analytics http://www.growthstockanalytics.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Growth Stock Analytics Report for March 1, 1999 Date: 02 Mar 1999 22:53:49 -0500 Thanks for the quick response, GSA Far as my vote counts, keep on posting and I'll keep on looking at your lists. I noted liquidity as one of the factors in your evaluation, does this automatically rule out small caps, or is the weighing such that they could fare well enough in other categories as to overcome a lack of "big cap" liquidity? What's a "D/E ratio" ?? (depreciation/expense??) Tom W stkguru@netside.net ICQ # 5568838 -----Original Message----- March 1, 1999 Hi Tom, I've taken up enough time on this board - I'll try to be brief in responding to your questions. >>>I, for one, would be more comfortable knowing your motives, are you posting to attract business or simply sharing for free with us something you charge others? Take our posts at face value - it's done to share ideas. We buy for our own account from this very list. Obvously, a second opinion on these stocks from this board woudn't hurt. >>>I would also, as I previously mentioned, like to hear something about your methodology in selecting stocks for the various categories. Methodology is simple - stocks are ranked based on a combination of the following factors: A/D, P/E, Sales Growth, Earnings Growth, Earnings Suprises, Projected Earnings, Earnings Estimate Revisions, Insider Buying, New Highs, Shares, Rel Str, Institutional Ownership, WRSI, Liquidity, Discount to Growth Rates, Tightness in Stock Price Patterns, Analysts Ranking, Net Margins, ROE and D/E Ratios. Top Ranked stocks (75+ out of 100) make the list, and we buy the breakouts. Sometimes there is some "noise" in the data, nothing that a quick look at the stock chart can't fix. Hope that helps. Growth Stock Analytics http://www.growthstockanalytics.com - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Johan Van Houtven Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Investing rules Date: 02 Mar 1999 10:30:00 +0100 >That's not to say I can't use reminders! >I sure don't want to forget some of the precepts >you will see here. If you really don't want to forget, a good way to remember is rephrasing the above sentence to: "I sure want to REMEMBER some of the precepts you will see here." May sound exactly the same, but it is easier for the brain to remember something it should do, than an action it should not do. Example? In a moment I'm going to ask you to NOT do something. This is all I ask from you. For the rest you can do whatever you want. Fair enough request? Here goes: I don't want you to think of a PINK ELEPHANT. That is not to much to ask for, isn't it? Just do not THINK of a PINK elephant, right NOW. And certainly not one with a white money on top of the pink elephant. [ What does this have to do with MANSLIC? ;^) ] -- Johan Van Houtven - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com (Jeff Salisbury) Subject: [CANSLIM] Accessing the discussion canslim archives... Date: 03 Mar 1999 08:00:01 -0700 From time to time, CANSLIM members may wish to browse the discussion archives. This posting provides instructions on how to access the archives. Thanks to David Cameron for compiling the essentials of this message. Here are the two ways to access the archives: 1. The best way is to use your web browser. To browse the archives, point your browser to: http://www.xmission.com/~mcjathan/cgi/lwgate.cgi/CANSLIM/ You can do simple key-word searches on the archive by going to: http://www.xmission.com/~mcjathan/canslim/search.html 2. (Not as convenient) via email: Send an email to majordomo@xmission.com with the following as the body of your message: "index canslim". Then send a follow up email to request an old email from either the "archive" or "latest" directory. Note that your request must be in the body of your email. For example: "get canslim latest/001" will retrieve file "001" from the "latest" directory. "get canslim archive/v01.n066" will retrieve file "v01.n066" from the "archive" dir. Best Regards, Jeff Salisbury - CANSLIM list owner/admin - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: musicant@autobahn.org (Dan Musicant) Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] David Ryan on CBS Mktwatch Today Date: 03 Mar 1999 16:02:55 GMT On Tue, 02 Mar 1999 17:20:23 -0500, you wrote: :Comments from David Ryan on CBS Marketwatch today (mixed in with the :closing report - may disappear soon, not sure where they archive it). :(Ryan works with O'Neil - or used to anyway. Both O'Neil Advanced :Workshops I have attended were jointly taught with Ryan. And some of = the :IBD tapes are done by Ryan.). =20 : :Here is the link: :http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/current/snapshot.htx : Yup, it's gone. But a search came up with the "story", I think: http://cbs.marketwatch.com/archive/19990302/news/current/snapshot.htx?sou= rce=3D&dist=3Dsrch What I saw was just a few sentences to the effect that the markets are apt to sideslip for a few weeks and then a rally will occur. That would contradict a post I saw here the last few days predicting a market top. I'd recommend staying alert! Dan - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Johan Van Houtven Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Level II access Date: 03 Mar 1999 09:13:14 +0100 At 04:08 PM 02/03/99 -0800, you wrote: > So if I have an AB Watley account does that mean I don't neeed softare like >Tradestation or TC2000 ? No. You still need scanning software like TC2000. AB Watley is for real-time quotes and fast trade executions, plus some charting maybe. -- Johan Van Houtven - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: musicant@autobahn.org (Dan Musicant) Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Investing rules Date: 03 Mar 1999 17:07:20 GMT On Tue, 02 Mar 1999 10:30:00 +0100, you wrote: :>That's not to say I can't use reminders! :>I sure don't want to forget some of the precepts :>you will see here. : :If you really don't want to forget, a good way to remember is rephrasing :the above sentence to: : :"I sure want to REMEMBER some of the precepts you will see here." : :May sound exactly the same, but it is easier for the brain to remember :something it should do, than an action it should not do. : :Example? In a moment I'm going to ask you to NOT do something. This is = all :I ask from you. For the rest you can do whatever you want. Fair enough :request? : :Here goes: I don't want you to think of a PINK ELEPHANT. That is not to :much to ask for, isn't it? Just do not THINK of a PINK elephant, right = NOW. :And certainly not one with a white money on top of the pink elephant. : :[ What does this have to do with MANSLIC? ;^) ] :-- Johan Van Houtven : I think this is a very good point, Johan. I think this may have to do with your understanding of neuro-linguistic programming, am I right? Think positive, don't use negatives whereever possible (please excuse the negative in the last sentence, it was unavoidable...at least I think so!).=20 I think it's interesting to note that I took some perhaps perverse pleasure in reading the list of sayings/aphorisms at Db's website: It was pleasing to see that others have suffered many of the awful experiences that I have. When I suffered them, I felt pretty alone, but seeing that others have these experiences too gives me a perhaps perverse pleasure I would have to call devilish. However, I have managed to avoid some of the pain, and it is best to learn from others' mistakes so that you do not have to make them yourself. For example, I have not engaged in the practice of averaging down (I think that's what you call it), when your stock goes down and you buy more anticipating that your profits will be greater when the stocks makes its inevitable (ha!) turnaround. However, I'm sure most on this list have noticed what seems the almost inevitable fact that after you get out of a losing position, a point is reached in the near future when you could have avoided the loss if you had only held on for a while. This has happened to me on my last two trades (I honored my mental stops and didn't ask myself what I *thought* the stocks would do), and I comfort myself only by thinking that it is best to "plan your trade and trade your plan", and if it doesn't work out well, then you will be forced to plan your trade more carefully next time. Thereby, your plans will tighten up and your overall trading strategy (and returns) make the most progress. Anyway, that's what I am telling myself as I lick my latest wounds. Dan - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Johan Van Houtven Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Investing rules Date: 03 Mar 1999 20:10:53 +0100 >I think this is a very good point, Johan. I think this may have to do >with your understanding of neuro-linguistic programming, am I right? You are right. :) >Think positive, don't use negatives whereever possible (please excuse >the negative in the last sentence, it was unavoidable...at least I think >so!). Try replacing the 'don't use negatives' with 'use positives'. B^) It is truely amazing how we (=me included) tend to use negatives instead of positives in everyday language. We tell or kids to 'don't do this or..', 'stop doing that...' instead of telling them what they should do or what they could do. 'Don't come into the house with your dirty shoes.' Instead of 'Please take of your shoes before you come in.' 'If you are not going to eat these vegetables, your are going to get sick.' (sic) Instead of 'Eating these vegetables is very healthty for you.' Especially in a sales environment replacing neagtives with positives can be very rewarding. "Sir, your are not going to have all these problems with this car." You can almost be sure the client will be thinking about 'all these problems' when you say that. So you could use "Sir, you are going to enjoy this 100% guaranteed car so much, I'm sure you will be recommending 'Supadupa Used Cars' to your best friends now and in the future. By the way, that is why our customers are our best salesmen. And that is exactly how we want it to be. Don't you?" Just for fun, try noticing every negative command and replacing it with a positive, during the course of 1 day. I'm quite sure you'll be as surpriced as I was when I first did that excercize. BTW, using these positives doesn't mean you can't use any negatives anymore. Absolutely not! You only use positives where they are more appropriate than using negatives. In certain instances using a negative gives exactly the kind of effect you want it to have. I regularily catch myself using a negative where a positive would be much more productive and pleasant. Isn't it amazing that the brain simplying can't do a negation without thinking about exactly what it should negate? Or where you able to not visualize that pink elephant? >However, I have managed >to avoid some of the pain, and it is best to learn from others' mistakes >so that you do not have to make them yourself. Agreed. One can even come to appreciate ones own mistakes. I love the functional fantasy 'There is no failure. Only feedback.' Look at almost any truely succesful man or woman. Most of them made an enormeous amount of mistakes (and maybe still do!). What puts them apart form 'un'-succesful people is that they recognized their mistakes, learned from them, carried on and thus became succesful. As another functional fantasy goes: 'In every adversity are hidden the seeds of victory.' >For example, I have not >engaged in the practice of averaging down (I think that's what you call >it), when your stock goes down and you buy more anticipating that your >profits will be greater when the stocks makes its inevitable (ha!) >turnaround. However, I'm sure most on this list have noticed what seems >the almost inevitable fact that after you get out of a losing position, >a point is reached in the near future when you could have avoided the >loss if you had only held on for a while. This has happened to me on my >last two trades (I honored my mental stops and didn't ask myself what I >*thought* the stocks would do), and I comfort myself only by thinking >that it is best to "plan your trade and trade your plan", and if it >doesn't work out well, then you will be forced to plan your trade more >carefully next time. Thereby, your plans will tighten up and your >overall trading strategy (and returns) make the most progress. 100% agreed. Another functional fantasy: 'Things don't get better by accident; they get better by appropriate action.' And 'Commitment is the key to excellence.' >Anyway, >that's what I am telling myself as I lick my latest wounds. I'm a newbie myself, so maybe I shouldn't say this, but judging from the above, I believe your on your way to become a bigtime winner. Johan - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: FBNAirPlt@aol.com Subject: [CANSLIM] Acc/Dis Numbers Date: 03 Mar 1999 22:52:01 EST Here are the latest Acc/Dis Numbers: Slide continues into bear numbers!!!! Date A B C D E AB/A:E %E 2/19/99 900 2427 1419 1307 577 50% 9% 2/22/99 911 2428 1423 1293 571 50% 9% 2/23/99 913 2453 1414 1297 551 51% 8% 2/24/99 965 2491 1378 1279 522 52% 8% 2/25/99 964 2477 1381 1279 535 52% 8% 2/26/99 925 2431 1419 1307 551 51% 8% 3/1/99 882 2414 1404 1346 574 50% 9% 3/2/99 855 2389 1450 1330 573 49% 9% 3/3/99 848 2394 1421 1374 564 49% 9% spreadsheet numbers Date,A,B,C,D,E,AB/A:E,%E 2/16/99,1045,2583,1380,1175,517,54%,8% 2/17/99,1009,2491,1398,1245,543,52%,8% 2/18/99,978,2485,1403,1244,552,52%,8% 2/19/99,900,2427,1419,1307,577,50%,9% 2/22/99,911,2428,1423,1293,571,50%,9% 2/23/99,913,2453,1414,1297,551,51%,8% 2/24/99,965,2491,1378,1279,522,52%,8% 2/25/99,964,2477,1381,1279,535,52%,8% 2/26/99,925,2431,1419,1307,551,51%,8% 3/1/99,882,2414,1404,1346,574,50%,9% 3/2/99,855,2389,1450,1330,573,49%,9% 3/3/99,848,2394,1421,1374,564,49%,9% Robert - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: musicant@autobahn.org (Dan Musicant) Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Investing rules Date: 04 Mar 1999 21:34:37 GMT On Wed, 03 Mar 1999 20:10:53 +0100, you wrote: :>I think this is a very good point, Johan. I think this may have to do :>with your understanding of neuro-linguistic programming, am I right? : :You are right. :) : :>Think positive, don't use negatives whereever possible (please excuse :>the negative in the last sentence, it was unavoidable...at least I = think :>so!).=20 : :Try replacing the 'don't use negatives' with 'use positives'. B^) LOL, seriously!!! That's great! :) Clearly, I am in need of remedial anti-negativity training. I'm going to make it a top priority. Thank You!=20 I've seen this concept before, but been unaware of how much I have strayed... Tis best to *think* before one speaks. It's nothing new, but often neglected. : :It is truely amazing how we (=3Dme included) tend to use negatives = instead of :positives in everyday language. : :We tell or kids to 'don't do this or..', 'stop doing that...' instead of :telling them what they should do or what they could do. : :'Don't come into the house with your dirty shoes.' Instead of 'Please = take :of your shoes before you come in.' : :'If you are not going to eat these vegetables, your are going to get = sick.' :(sic) Instead of 'Eating these vegetables is very healthty for you.' : :Especially in a sales environment replacing neagtives with positives can= be :very rewarding. : :"Sir, your are not going to have all these problems with this car." You :can almost be sure the client will be thinking about 'all these = problems' :when you say that. : :So you could use "Sir, you are going to enjoy this 100% guaranteed car = so :much, I'm sure you will be recommending 'Supadupa Used Cars' to your = best :friends now and in the future. By the way, that is why our customers are :our best salesmen. And that is exactly how we want it to be. Don't you?" : :Just for fun, try noticing every negative command and replacing it with = a :positive, during the course of 1 day. I'm quite sure you'll be as = surpriced :as I was when I first did that excercize. Absolutely! Fun and benefit for sure! I intend to keep this watch on for more than one day. I don't know if it will work out to have an anti-negative sentry in my mind on a continual basis, but I hope to revisit this repeatedly and as necessary! : :BTW, using these positives doesn't mean you can't use any negatives :anymore. Absolutely not! You only use positives where they are more :appropriate than using negatives. In certain instances using a negative :gives exactly the kind of effect you want it to have. : :I regularily catch myself using a negative where a positive would be = much :more productive and pleasant. : :Isn't it amazing that the brain simplying can't do a negation without :thinking about exactly what it should negate? Or where you able to not :visualize that pink elephant?=20 Well, I'm colorblind, so the pink elephant exercise is not the best for me. Indeed, not picturing a pink elephant is not that hard for me. Maybe, try not thinking about your left foot. I like that. That's a lot harder for me. : :>However, I have managed :>to avoid some of the pain, and it is best to learn from others' = mistakes :>so that you do not have to make them yourself. : :Agreed. One can even come to appreciate ones own mistakes. I love the :functional fantasy 'There is no failure. Only feedback.' Ah, one's mistakes, of course. Failing to learn from them is folly. =46ailing to learn from others mistakes, too is a form of folly.=20 : :Look at almost any truely succesful man or woman. Most of them made an :enormeous amount of mistakes (and maybe still do!). What puts them apart :form 'un'-succesful people is that they recognized their mistakes, = learned :from them, carried on and thus became succesful. As another functional :fantasy goes: 'In every adversity are hidden the seeds of victory.' : :>For example, I have not :>engaged in the practice of averaging down (I think that's what you call :>it), when your stock goes down and you buy more anticipating that your :>profits will be greater when the stocks makes its inevitable (ha!) :>turnaround. However, I'm sure most on this list have noticed what seems :>the almost inevitable fact that after you get out of a losing position, :>a point is reached in the near future when you could have avoided the :>loss if you had only held on for a while. This has happened to me on my :>last two trades (I honored my mental stops and didn't ask myself what I :>*thought* the stocks would do), and I comfort myself only by thinking :>that it is best to "plan your trade and trade your plan", and if it :>doesn't work out well, then you will be forced to plan your trade more :>carefully next time. Thereby, your plans will tighten up and your :>overall trading strategy (and returns) make the most progress. : :100% agreed. Another functional fantasy: 'Things don't get better by :accident; they get better by appropriate action.' And 'Commitment is the :key to excellence.' : :>Anyway, :>that's what I am telling myself as I lick my latest wounds. : :I'm a newbie myself, so maybe I shouldn't say this, but judging from the :above, I believe your on your way to become a bigtime winner. : : : : :Johan Thanks, Johan. That makes me smile. Dan - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: [CANSLIM] Today's Market Date: 05 Mar 1999 06:48:23 -0500 Major rally in Japan overnight, up over 700 points for a 5% gain. And this time the rally lasted all the way to the close. Rest of Asia followed but none with such an impressive gain. Let's see, is one 5% day better or worse than five 1% days? Hummmm. In Europe, most are following Asia upward, Russia being the biggest percentage gainer. Futures are also indicating a positive opening, however between now and the open will come major economic reports including Feb's employment report. And with the fear of the Feds raising rates, that report if too strong could upset the apple cart. Tom W stkguru@netside.net ICQ # 5568838 - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Frank V. Wolynski" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Today's Market Date: 05 Mar 1999 07:13:57 -0500 At 06:48 AM 3/5/99 -0500, you wrote: >Major rally in Japan overnight, up over 700 points for a 5% >gain. And this time the rally lasted all the way to the >close. Rest of Asia followed but none with such an >impressive gain. Let's see, is one 5% day better or worse >than five 1% days? Hummmm. > I'll take the five 1% days. ( Magic of compounding ya know.) Frank - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: David Reid Subject: [CANSLIM] How do short sellers get killed? Date: 05 Mar 1999 08:28:23 -0800 take a look at levl analyst downgrade yesterday then they announce after hours that intel is buying them at a huge premium to the days close.. Do you think that analyst's phone is going to be ringing today?? - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Robert Miller" Subject: [CANSLIM] General Canslim Question Date: 05 Mar 1999 09:02:40 -0500 In HTMMIS, and other sources, WON said to avoid buying stocks off of 3rd or 4th stage bases. My question is what resets the clock. After a stock has been moving up for an extended period and has formed 3 or 4 bases, it is no longer a buy candidate. What has to happen in order to begin counting at one again. A bear market? A correction of a certain proportion in the stock? Thanks, Rob - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Peter Newell" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] General Canslim Question Date: 05 Mar 1999 09:14:36 -0800 Robert, In their tapes etc they mention that most runs last around 18 months. Of course the best stocks violate this and all other rules. One thing I have been doing is going back after each rally and seeing which stocks had the best run off a new high and using that as a starting point for the next rally. I want to go back and do this for as many rally's as I can to see what it looks like but it will be awhile before I finish that project. Anyhow slowing growth is a good time to sell some. DELL is starting to look like this I think it has more than four bases but it would be worth reviewing. DELL is also a good example of how a stock can run after the EPS numbers are in. It only achieved an EPS of over 80 after 5/97 and was a 99 EPS and 99 RS and completed the last have of its run since then. Peter Newell -----Original Message----- >In HTMMIS, and other sources, WON said to avoid buying stocks off of 3rd or >4th stage bases. My question is what resets the clock. After a stock has >been moving up for an extended period and has formed 3 or 4 bases, it is no >longer a buy candidate. What has to happen in order to begin counting at >one again. A bear market? A correction of a certain proportion in the >stock? > >Thanks, >Rob > > > >- > - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Craig Griffin Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] General Canslim Question Date: 05 Mar 1999 09:37:52 -0500 Rob, My guess is a bear market or possibly a major correction (15% or more) resets the clock. Generally in a new bull market - there are new stocks that assume leadership. So I think he assumes you would at that point be picking up the new leaders. If the old leaders resume, then they should have a nice base to launch from at that point. I have never heard or read an answer from WON or Ryan on this. See additional thoughts interspersed below. You wrote: >In HTMMIS, and other sources, WON said to avoid buying stocks off of 3rd or >4th stage bases. My question is what resets the clock. After a stock has >been moving up for an extended period and has formed 3 or 4 bases, it is no >longer a buy candidate. Not strictly true (AFAIK without re-reading the appropriate sections of HTMMIS). My sense has been that WON says to generally avoid 3rd and 4th stage bases because they are more failure prone. However, like anything, with the right stock and the right base and the right market environment, I believe he would on occassion buy a 3rd or 4th stage breakout. Take a big LEADER in an ongoing bull, following an 8 or 10% pullback in the market, in which the leader formed a tight base. There were probably 3rd and 4th and 5th stage bases for DELL that were buyable in its recent advance. Try charting dell back to about 1994 on a weekly basis and overlay a chart of the NASDAQ. This would be an example of a somewhat unusual case. >What has to happen in order to begin counting at >one again. A bear market? A correction of a certain proportion in the >stock? See answer above. I would also think that a long and significant base in the stock resets the clock as well, regardless of bear market or bull. For example take a look at WMT from 1993 to 1997 (long base) and subsequent breakout. For the most part the avoid 3rd and 4th stage bases applies, however. Many, many stocks fail at this stage (also remember, the market has been running for a while for them to get to this stage, so the market is often ready to drag them back anyway). Best Regards, Craig - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Peter Newell" Subject: [CANSLIM] Pyramiding/Money Management Date: 05 Mar 1999 09:41:53 -0800 Can anyone give my some examples of how pyramiding/money management would work. Is this something discussed in the advanced seminars? Thanks, Peter Newell - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Ricardo Bekin" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Pyramiding/Money Management Date: 05 Mar 1999 09:16:57 -0600 with tongue firmly planted in cheek, this is how ONE version of pyramiding works: you sign up a client who gives you $100; you sign up a second customer and tell the first one you've doubled his money, he has $200 with you, and you send a phony statement to the second customer; your "good" results with the first customer attract more customers to you; with each new customer you tell some of the old ones how you've doubled their money eventually you take all of the money, get on a plane to [insert your favorite island name here], and hope the FBI/CIA/SEC/whoever does not find you advanced seminars taught in most State Penitentiaries Ricardo ----- Original Message ----- Sent: Friday, March 05, 1999 11:41 AM >Can anyone give my some examples of how pyramiding/money management would >work. Is this something discussed in the advanced seminars? > >Thanks, > >Peter Newell > > >- > - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Tim Fisher Subject: [CANSLIM] Intraday record? Date: 05 Mar 1999 07:37:44 -0800 What are these guys smoking? DJI at 9675 & therefore US stocks at an intraday record? How about "the Dow 30 at an intraday record"? Anyway I love this complete lack of understanding of the market. From Reuters Securities no less. U.S. stocks soar to new intraday record shortly after the open following the release of February employment data. Jobs data generally in line with views, soothing inflationary fears. CompUSA rating cut after earnings warnings. Long-bond up 2-5/32 pts, yield 5.56 pct. Dow up 194, S&P up 25. Nasdaq up 39. Anyway, assuming this holds, are we at 2 consecutive 1% up days on volume? Saw no analysis of yesterday's M on the list & I don't have the volume figures. Tim Fisher, 1995 President, Pacific Fishery Biologists Ore-ROCK-On Rockhounding Web Site PFB Information mailto:tim@OreRockOn.com WWW http://OreRockOn.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Craig Griffin Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Pyramiding/Money Management Date: 05 Mar 1999 09:58:22 -0500 Peter, >Can anyone give my some examples of how pyramiding/money management would >work. Is this something discussed in the advanced seminars? Here is a repost of something I wrote on the subject many moons ago ... Best Regards, Craig X-Sender: cagriffin@pop.mindspring.com X-Mailer: Windows Eudora Light Version 1.5.4 (16) Sender: owner-canslim@xmission.com Reply-To: canslim@xmission.com Dean, At 08:18 PM 11/25/96 +1300, you wrote: >Question: Does anyone have any thoughts, experiences, warnings about >pyramiding a stock? I would like to know how people go about it. >This is just an observation of mine. I am very wary trying this in a small >float. I'm not sure I mean the same thing by pyramiding that others do. In a class that O'Neil gave, he gave examples of how to divide a portfolio. The gist is that one should not own more than 2 to 8 stocks at one time, for a number of reasons, which I will not get into here. But 2 stocks would be for a portfolio of say $10k to $25k, 3-4 stocks for a portfolio of $25k to $400k, 6 stocks for one of $400k to $1,000,000, 8 stocks for $1,000,000 +. Then the concept is that each full "position" in a stock is equal to n% of your portfolio. Lets say you have a 100k portfolio and have decided to own 4 stocks, then a "full position" would be 1/4 of the portfolio or 25% of $100,000 = $25,000. So what does this have to do with pyramiding? Here's what I understood him to say, although, I am not sure he ever called it pyramiding. On the day a stock you are going to buy breaks out to a new high, you buy a "partial position". With the 100k portfolio divided into 4 stocks, you would buy say $17k worth of XYZ the day of the breakout. The next day or two or three you would watch it and if it continued to "act right", you would buy another $5k worth of XYZ (now you have $22k invested). A little bit later you might buy the remaining $3k ending up with a full position. His assumption is that you would catch it at the breakout and buy maybe 2% or 3% at most above the pivot point on your initial buy. Then it might move up another couple of % and a day or two later, you might buy another, but smaller partial position (see example in previous paragraph). Then it might pull back a bit and then move up again with some volume and you would buy a final and even smaller partial position. The idea is that on your first buy you get a bit more than 1/2 a position. Then you follow up with one or two more buys to fill out a full position. "Wait a minute!", you say, "these things often take off like rockets and move 10% the first day and never look back". I guess his attitude is that that is a good problem to have, just don't chase it. In that case you would end up with 1/2 position. So now you might end up with 5 stocks in your portfolio rather than the original 4 you had planned. So, IMO, the pyramid buy can also be when your stock takes off like a little rocket and then within the first week or so after launch, begins to pull back to the break point on reduced volume. At that point, as it bounces off the pivot, you get a second chance to buy. If you already own the stock with a half position, then you can "pyramid" on your original purchase as it pushes off again (ie. buy the other half position). The idea is to start out with slightly reduced risk via a less than full position in the stock, and then add to your initial holdings as the breakout proves itself out with the stock "acting right". The pyramid concept is that you buy your first partial postion, the base of the pyramid, (ie. the largest part) on the first buy, then successively make 1 or 2 more buys which are each smaller than the last to finish the pyramid. ^ 10% / \ = Third buy in XYZ Corp = $3k --- / 20% \ = Second buy in XYZ Corp = $5k ------- / 70% \ = Initial buy in XYZ Corp = $17k ----------- Note that the percentages and numbers above are approximate. Also note that none of the purchases above should occur more than 10% off the pivot point at the absolute most and the Initial Buy should occur within 5% of the pivot point. Hope this helps. Best Regards, Craig - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Craig Griffin Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Intraday record? Date: 05 Mar 1999 10:52:30 -0500 Tim, You wrote: >Anyway, assuming this holds, are we at 2 consecutive 1% up days on volume? >Saw no analysis of yesterday's M on the list & I don't have the volume >figures. Yesterday's 1% up was the second day of the rally and thus does not count. Today's does count if volume is higher (yesterday = 894 million). Almost this identical pattern happened on 2/18, 2/19, and 2/22. The third day up, 02/22/99 was a followthrough day with higher volume and big % gain (low 2275, high and close at 2342). Yesterday we closed at 2292 and as I write this we are at 2330. Today's close may tell the tale (if we get excellent volume and push ahead through the close, I will be mostly convinced). The end result will look like a 2B pattern on the NAS, with nearly identical 3 day rallies off the bottom. Note that the pullback this second time did not undercut the low set on 02/18/99. So, in one sense, the followthrough day of 02/22 is still in effect. The S&P and DJ30 are closing in on the top of their recent range. A breakout by those indexes with good volume sometime soon would be nice too. In a sense that would give them the leadership position over the NAS at this point - OR - conversely, you might just say they are catching up with the NAS from back on 12/18/98 (compare the 3 chart patterns to see what I mean). Best Regards, Craig - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: John Allen Subject: [CANSLIM] Anyone buying these days? Date: 05 Mar 1999 07:45:38 -0800 Hi group, Is anyone one this list looking at or buying anything these days? I notice that the Acc/Dis numbers continue sliding lower and lower (thank you Robert!), that makes me reluctant to buy anything new. John R. Allen - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Craig Griffin Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Anyone buying these days? Date: 05 Mar 1999 11:34:49 -0500 John, You wrote: >Is anyone one this list looking at or buying anything these days? I notice that >the Acc/Dis numbers continue sliding lower and lower (thank you Robert!), that >makes me reluctant to buy anything new. I agree that technically, there are many causes for concern with this bull market. It really does look feeble. I am still holding some mattress stuffers like CSCO, LU, PFE and one or two other things. Have not been buying lately (although I was very tempted by EBAY's breakout). There are a few stocks that are on the move with breakouts, especially in the Internet (see RNWK) and Biotech (see BGEN) groups. The advance is narrow, but there are opportunities in some of the leaders. Problem is - there are not that many and some are quickly failing. With luck we should be seeing a lot of bases forming up before long. NAS peaked about 6 weeks ago. Give it another couple of weeks and we should have a lot of 8-10 week bases in leadership stocks ready to launch (or not if the market reverses and slides below 2225 on the NAS). A few are now launching from 5-7 week bases as I mentioned above. I am sitting on my hands because I have been working on other stuff lately - hoping to get it done before a serious rally develops and because I am not yet convinced (see my post to Tim). I have not yet been hunting for bases, so have no idea what is ready to go. It may be about that time though. Best Regards, Craig PS. To look at an aid I use to monitor the market intraday - go here http://www.quote.com/cgi-bin/jchart-form?genApplet=yes Then click on $COMPX to see a NAS chart. Then select CANDLE from the "Chart" pulldown menu on the left. Maybe add "Moving Average" (10) from the "None" pulldown menu at the bottom. Then play with looking at 10, 15, 30, 60 minute and daily charts in the Time pulldown menu. For this rally to mean much, we ought to form a nice little base on the intraday (15 or 30 minute chart) to launch from over the next day or two. We might even form a cup w/handle with the high so far today forming the left side of the cup. If we start having big RED down bars near the close today without a bounce, instead of a nice tight intraday base (with or without breakout) - I will be less convinced. So far, at 11:25 am, the pullback looks fairly smooth on a 15 minute chart - could be the left side of a cup or beginning of a flat base - if we don't collapse out of it. Also so far today, volume is at about a 900 million rate, but that could change by the close. One day at the time ... - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Craig Griffin Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Anyone buying these days? Date: 05 Mar 1999 11:50:30 -0500 Two other things - the NAS 50 dma is at about 2325, and we just pulled back and bounced off of that intraday. So we are back above it at the moment after a few days below it. Also, it looks like Connie's 3,7,10 dma may be about to go positive on the NAS (short term, daytrader signal). But it had a somewhat similar look to it back on the 22nd and didn't make it. - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Walter Stock Subject: [CANSLIM] Accuracy of Sentiment Indicators Date: 05 Mar 1999 15:24:57 -0500 As readers of this list may have read by now, I have recently started to question the accuracy of the sentiment indicators that I have been following for a long time. The following is a (free) article from thestreet.com, which makes the case that sentiment indicators are every bit as accurate as flipping a coin. http://www.thestreet.com/markets/marketfeatures/721314.html I don't know if the indicators are as bad as that. Does anyone know of a website where sentiment is charted, going back a dozen or more years? I would like to overlay the data with one or more index charts. Jeffry or Tom or anyone else? Thanks, Walter - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Anindo Majumdar Subject: [CANSLIM] DCLK - classic cup & handle Date: 05 Mar 1999 14:49:03 -0800 (PST) DCLK broke out of a classic cup & handle taking out its old high. Anindo > > As readers of this list may have read by now, I have > recently started to question the accuracy of the > sentiment indicators that I have been following for a > long time. > > The following is a (free) article from thestreet.com, > which makes the case that sentiment indicators are > every bit as accurate as flipping a coin. > > http://www.thestreet.com/markets/marketfeatures/721314.html > > I don't know if the indicators are as bad as that. > > Does anyone know of a website where sentiment is charted, > going back a dozen or more years? I would like to overlay the > data with one or more index charts. > Jeffry or Tom or anyone else? > > Thanks, > > Walter > > > - > > - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: [CANSLIM] DGO New Highs Date: 06 Mar 1999 04:23:27 -0500 An interesting week, with a climatic Friday, normally a day for squaring positions and taking profits ahead of a weekend. Instead, on the back of a tame jobs reports, the Dow leaped up on the open, stayed there the entire day, and not only didn't sell off towards the close but rose even higher to a closing record. Bodes well for Monday. The number of Daily Graphs stocks hitting new highs for the past week dropped slightly to 152, however the ones on the list meeting the basic test of 80/80 for RS/EPS rose slightly to 74. The Dow was the big winner among the indexes for the week, up 4.6%, while Nasdaq was up 2.1%, R2000 a measly 1.4%, S&P100 up 3.1%, S&P500 up 2.9%, and VIX continued to drop another 14.9% to 25.12 as it approaches the sub 20 range where volatility is healthiest for CANSLIM stocks. Worth noting that of all the stocks in the DG books that made new highs in the first four days of the week, only 18 failed to make another new high on Friday (HINT: since my list is in chronological order, they'll be the first 18 on the list). Here's the list of the survivors: BELFB, FWRD, ABE, XYLN, EXPD, CSN, BELFA, RICA, BSYS, ANSR, ZLC, TOM, WAT, OSSI, ALSI, OCLI, MM, AEOS, COMR, HH, PFE, LOW, ISCA, NTRS, CCRD, GDT, CLFY, SCH, ASO, COST, FTEN, VMC, ANF, EAGL, SEBL, ABDR, MWD, GPS, ZION, CLE, ZQK, EBAY, TJX, ADVP, RHT, FON, LEVL, QCOM, POS, RFMD, SDLI, HD, KSS, FOSL, STT, PVN, AFS, WMT, DY, AGN, ELN, MDS, AXP, MMC, EL, DH, BJ, UTX, CHD, LLY, NAV, SHX, MRK, CTS. Happy Hunting! Tom W stkguru@netside.net ICQ # 5568838 - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: FBNAirPlt@aol.com Subject: [CANSLIM] Acc/Dis numbers Date: 06 Mar 1999 12:10:12 EST Here are the latest Acc/Dis numbers: 1 Pt. improvement in a+b/a:e, but %e still high at 9% Date A B C D E AB/A:E %E 2/22/99 911 2428 1423 1293 571 50% 9% 2/23/99 913 2453 1414 1297 551 51% 8% 2/24/99 965 2491 1378 1279 522 52% 8% 2/25/99 964 2477 1381 1279 535 52% 8% 2/26/99 925 2431 1419 1307 551 51% 8% 3/1/99 882 2414 1404 1346 574 50% 9% 3/2/99 855 2389 1450 1330 573 49% 9% 3/3/99 848 2394 1421 1374 564 49% 9% 3/4/99 831 2416 1417 1332 574 49% 9% 3/5/99 811 2384 1428 1354 599 49% 9% 3/8/99 820 2437 1384 1356 578 50% 9% Spreadsheet version Date,A,B,C,D,E,AB/A:E,%E 2/19/99,900,2427,1419,1307,577,50%,9% 2/22/99,911,2428,1423,1293,571,50%,9% 2/23/99,913,2453,1414,1297,551,51%,8% 2/24/99,965,2491,1378,1279,522,52%,8% 2/25/99,964,2477,1381,1279,535,52%,8% 2/26/99,925,2431,1419,1307,551,51%,8% 3/1/99,882,2414,1404,1346,574,50%,9% 3/2/99,855,2389,1450,1330,573,49%,9% 3/3/99,848,2394,1421,1374,564,49%,9% 3/4/99,831,2416,1417,1332,574,49%,9% 3/5/99,811,2384,1428,1354,599,49%,9% 3/8/99,820,2437,1384,1356,578,50%,9% Robert - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: postwhit@sover.net Subject: [CANSLIM] Accuracy of Sentiment Indicators Date: 06 Mar 1999 14:05:38 -0500 Walter: I don't know where you can graph the IBD sentiment indicator, but http://www.decisionpoint.com has historical charts on AAII data. I've not found that strong a correlation with that particular indicator, however. The charts in my *head*, however, show consistent correlation with the IBD sentiment numbers for each of the significant market turns over the past two years (accompanied by price and volume signals, etc.) which were 1/97, 4/97, 10/97, 1/98, 7/98, 10/98 with the jury still out on 2/99. Don't quite know from your posts what it is that has lead you to question the accuracy of the indicators. Which ones are you watching? How many? Is that too many? Short term turns, or intermediate to longer term turns? As for JJ's article, haven't read it, but a guy's gotta make *noise* to make money? Take it for what it's worth.... BTW, anyone notice the similarity of the index charts and breadth currently with the June '97 charts? JW (the snowed in with lambs-a-plenty) - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: postwhit@sover.net Subject: [CANSLIM] Accuracy of Sentiment - Edited Date: 06 Mar 1999 14:10:31 -0500 Sorry, June/July 1998 was the comparison I had in mind. JW - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Harlan Subject: [CANSLIM] Pyramiding!!!!!! The real Answer Date: 06 Mar 1999 14:12:58 -0600 Ok Heres how it works and what it can do for you, I know I do it all the time. 1st off heres a little ditty that helps: Lets say your at the dog track and you placed your bet on sea biscuit, sea biscuit is in the lead by a mile, (a definite winner) all of a sudden you get this idea that hey I'm going back up to the betting window and lay some more on sea biscuit Wellll in the dog track you cant but in the market you can! this is where the phrase ADD TO YOUR WINNERS comes from and in. Go to big charts and load a chart on AOL going back 1 yr. or at least till aug 1998 ok on 11-4-98 AOL broke out of a Huge base (rule of thumb is bigger the base bigger the breakout or down) That was your #1 strongest entry point (the initial breakout) then lets say on the breakout you bought 100 shares, And after awhile you noticed that this issue was trading off of the 20day MAverage for sometime, you also noticed that from 11-19-98 to 12-17-98 AOL was going sideways/digesting its recent gain/ building a small base. On 12-17-98 it broke out of that pattern and went for another run, it was at that point you bought another 100 shares and went along for the ride. After that it got a little trickier to read but suffice it to say the issue started to go sideways again for the most part although not as tight as ther prior bases were. For me its at that point that I shift into the buy on the pullback to the 50day MAverage (you know the bunny hop right? two forward one back) as long as the big picture uptrend is intact mind you. Which would have brought you to the 1-22-99 pullback lets say you added there 100 more shares at 70ish Then AOL went on another run to new highs and sold off to the 71ish level (notice its a higher low than the most recent sell off? (upternds are defined as higher highs and higher lows when viewing a chart) Did you also notice that all of this took place while the stock was above the 50day MAverage too? (meaning uptrend still intact, big pic wise) so you bought another 100 at the 72ish level. get the picture now? ============ Ok then 100 was bought at 33ish = 3300 100 was bought at 49.50ish = 4950 100 was bought at 70ish = 7000 100 was bought at 72ish = 7200 You now own 400 (this doesn't take into affect the splits) at an average cost of 56.125 and now every dollar up means 400 in your pocket as long as the uptrend remains intact (actually more due to a stock split). The beauty of this is that your able to add dollars to the position as long as its performing without having to make a kamikaze throw all your eggs at it initially. Yes in this case that would have ultimately been the best move but at the time did you know that it was going to perform as well as it has? No, nobody does-fact. By averaging up its also a risk management tactic to boot. I can go on and on about this but I think you all see the point. Go to big charts interactive with a fast stochastic loaded and look at AOL now from a stochastic oscillator. looks oversold dont ya think? justg a thought folks, use your own judgment Disclaimer: I already own it and will continue as long as as its uptrend is intact and it remains in the market leader category. Sincerely, Harlan - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Growth Stock Analytics" Subject: [CANSLIM] Growth Stock Analytics Report for March 8, 1999 Date: 06 Mar 1999 23:36:07 -0500 Growth Stock Analytics Report for March 8, 1999: Source: Growth Stock Analytics' Canslim Based HI-EPSRS Database http://www.growthstockanalytics.com Anbody have an opinion on JAKKS PACIFIC (JAKK)? Broke out of a base around $15. Now around $15.75. IBD at 99,96,B,A,A. PE of 18, to grow at 29%, Quarterly Earnings have Accelerated, Some Insider Buying, 6 Analysts Rate it a Strong Buy, 1 a Buy. Top Ranked Stock in our database. Top GSA Ranked: Symb Rank JAKKS PACIFIC INC JAKK 92.04 ADVANCE PARADIGM INC ADVP 84.95 PHARMACEUTICAL MARKETING PMRX 84.62 XEIKON N.V. ADR XEIKY 82.10 WINSLOEW FURNITURE INC WLFI 81.81 SS&C TECHNOLOGIES INC SSNC 81.54 MOBILE MINI INC MINI 80.70 JOHNSTOWN AMERICA INDUST JAII 79.66 AVIATION SALES CO AVS 79.50 HERLEY INDUSTRIES INC HRLY 79.13 WIZTEC SOLUTIONS LTD ORD WIZTF 78.66 Greatest Bargains: RUSH ENTERPRISES INC RUSH 62.42 POMEROY COMPUTER RSCS PMRY 69.30 HERLEY INDUSTRIES INC HRLY 79.13 JAKKS PACIFIC INC JAKK 92.04 RACING CHAMPIONS CORP RACN 64.47 MOBILE MINI INC MINI 80.70 NPC INTERNAT INC NPCI 67.73 RIMAGE CORPORATION RIMG 69.38 MERCURY INTERACTIVE CORP MERQ 69.67 ORBOTECH LTD ORBKF 69.00 Technical Breakouts: ADVANCE PARADIGM INC ADVP 84.95 CLAIRES STORES INC CLE 74.40 XYLAN CORPORATION XYLN 72.55 ROBERTS PHARMACEUTICAL RPC 70.29 STARBUCKS CORPORATION SBUX 68.48 DELTA AIR LINES INC DAL 43.65 - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Growth Stock Analytics Report for March 8, 1999 Date: 07 Mar 1999 06:26:28 -0500 Aside from GRS of only 72, and ROE of 15%, it looks good. Incidentally, DGO shows projected earnings for 1999 at +35%, and for 2000 at +54%. Debt of 23% doesn't appear to be a problem. RS is currently declining, may just be consolidating recent gains, but would wait for RS to reverse upward. Tom W stkguru@netside.net ICQ # 5568838 -----Original Message----- 8, 1999 Growth Stock Analytics Report for March 8, 1999: Source: Growth Stock Analytics' Canslim Based HI-EPSRS Database http://www.growthstockanalytics.com Anbody have an opinion on JAKKS PACIFIC (JAKK)? Broke out of a base around $15. Now around $15.75. IBD at 99,96,B,A,A. PE of 18, to grow at 29%, Quarterly Earnings have Accelerated, Some Insider Buying, 6 Analysts Rate it a Strong Buy, 1 a Buy. Top Ranked Stock in our database. - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: David Laswson Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Growth Stock Analytics Report for March 8, 1999 Date: 07 Mar 1999 09:57:14 -0500 Any comments about ADVP? I beleive it has formed a high tight flag formation. ARI Growth Stock Analytics wrote: > Growth Stock Analytics Report for March 8, 1999: > > Source: Growth Stock Analytics' Canslim Based HI-EPSRS Database > http://www.growthstockanalytics.com > > Anbody have an opinion on JAKKS PACIFIC (JAKK)? Broke out of a base > around $15. Now around $15.75. IBD at 99,96,B,A,A. PE of 18, to grow at > 29%, Quarterly Earnings have Accelerated, Some Insider Buying, 6 Analysts > Rate it a Strong Buy, 1 a Buy. Top Ranked Stock in our database. > > Top GSA Ranked: Symb Rank > JAKKS PACIFIC INC JAKK 92.04 > ADVANCE PARADIGM INC ADVP 84.95 > PHARMACEUTICAL MARKETING PMRX 84.62 > XEIKON N.V. ADR XEIKY 82.10 > WINSLOEW FURNITURE INC WLFI 81.81 > SS&C TECHNOLOGIES INC SSNC 81.54 > MOBILE MINI INC MINI 80.70 > JOHNSTOWN AMERICA INDUST JAII 79.66 > AVIATION SALES CO AVS 79.50 > HERLEY INDUSTRIES INC HRLY 79.13 > WIZTEC SOLUTIONS LTD ORD WIZTF 78.66 > > Greatest Bargains: > RUSH ENTERPRISES INC RUSH 62.42 > POMEROY COMPUTER RSCS PMRY 69.30 > HERLEY INDUSTRIES INC HRLY 79.13 > JAKKS PACIFIC INC JAKK 92.04 > RACING CHAMPIONS CORP RACN 64.47 > MOBILE MINI INC MINI 80.70 > NPC INTERNAT INC NPCI 67.73 > RIMAGE CORPORATION RIMG 69.38 > MERCURY INTERACTIVE CORP MERQ 69.67 > ORBOTECH LTD ORBKF 69.00 > > Technical Breakouts: > ADVANCE PARADIGM INC ADVP 84.95 > CLAIRES STORES INC CLE 74.40 > XYLAN CORPORATION XYLN 72.55 > ROBERTS PHARMACEUTICAL RPC 70.29 > STARBUCKS CORPORATION SBUX 68.48 > DELTA AIR LINES INC DAL 43.65 > > - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "M Sims" Subject: [CANSLIM] Updating WOW Data Date: 07 Mar 1999 11:23:29 -0800 Any one using QP2 for there data, and if so do u have a way to update all the securities in wow. I know this was talked about sometime back but I cant find the material. any help would be appreciated.. Mike - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Arild Myklebust Subject: [CANSLIM] CANSLIM Link. Date: 07 Mar 1999 21:38:14 +0000 Hi, Since this is a CANSLIM forum,i would like to share with you a CANSLIM search link which i found free to use.Many probably know about this search site already,but for those who may find this it interesting,here is the URL: http://www.iqc.com/scan/ Possible search criteria: 12 Sectors: Basic Materials Capital Goods Conglomerates Consumer Cyclical Consumer/Non-cyclical Energy Financial Healthcare Services Technology Transportation Utilities Fundamental Criteria: EPS (Earnings/Share PE (Price/Earning) Dividend/Share Shares Outstanding Market Capitalization Price and Volume Criteria: Stock Price Stock Price(Today's Close) Today's Volume Regards, Arild Myklebust --------------------- http://www.oextradingresources.com/frames.html For a 100% free financial educational newsletter,delivered to your e-mail box at the end of every month,with tips,techniques, secrets and articles on trading/investing. A monthly "OEX Now" Chart analysis is included. --------------------- - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Johan Van Houtven Subject: [CANSLIM] CANSLIM discussion group Date: 07 Mar 1999 21:49:26 +0100 There is a new CANSLIM discussion group at: http://forums.delphi.com/m/main.asp?sigdir=realcanslim I wish they would use this list instead of a cumbersome web-based list, but the info on the list is quite good, so give it a look. Johan - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Johan Van Houtven Subject: [CANSLIM] Stock Market timing Date: 07 Mar 1999 23:03:32 +0100 http://www.ultrafs.com/tutorial.htm Contains some of the best stock market timing advice I've come across. They do not give away their actual methods, but they do tell you how important stock market time is and how to use it. Their comments are especially interesting for those who (wrongly) believe in the buy and hold forever method. Johan - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: ADVP (was Re: [CANSLIM] Growth Stock Analytics Report for March 8, 1999) Date: 07 Mar 1999 21:22:47 -0500 ROE 18%, sales growing faster than earnings, suggesting lower cost efficiency despite higher sales, or lower end services. Funds already have 30%. Stock way too extended for a new buy, tho would hold if already in. With a trailing PE of 48, may still have some juice left in it despite already higher than the excessive PE of the S&P500. Otherwise, got a lot of good CS elements in it. Tom W stkguru@netside.net ICQ # 5568838 -----Original Message----- March 8, 1999 Any comments about ADVP? I beleive it has formed a high tight flag formation. ARI - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Patrick Wahl" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Updating WOW Data Date: 07 Mar 1999 19:30:30 -0800 > Any one using QP2 for there data, and if so do u have a way to update all > the securities in wow. I know this was talked about sometime back but I cant > find the material. I can export whatever I want to Metastock format files with QP2, I presume those are readable by WOW. I'm not sure about all stocks, but a select bunch is quite easy. - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: [CANSLIM] "M" for Monday, misc. Date: 07 Mar 1999 21:38:20 -0500 Japan continuing its rally of last week, up now 168 pts (1.13%) and breaking 15,000. Rest of Asia also up, setting a good tone (if it holds thru the night) for Europe. Dollar remains strong against most major currencies. Friday's economic reports appear to have dispelled a fear of an impending Fed rate hike. Doesn't prevent it, just postpones it, so we get to go thru that "fear" later this year, IMHO. I would like to ask all members (and I'm as guilty as any) to take a look at the subject line of any response you plan to send after clicking on Reply. Try to make it pertinent to your reply. And if you are really posting something totally unrelated to what you are clicking on, send a fresh email rather than a reply to something totally unrelated. I realize it's easier to click on reply than to initiate a new email, but it only takes a minute to add the group address (canslim@xmission.com) to your address book and use that instead thereafter. Tom W stkguru@netside.net ICQ # 5568838 - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: David Laswson Subject: Re: ADVP (was Re: [CANSLIM] Growth Stock Analytics Report for March 8, Date: 07 Mar 1999 21:53:09 -0500 Tom, Sorry I think you misunderstand.In HTMMIS pg.157 WON says, "High, tight flags are rare.A high tight flag price pattern is rare and occurs no more than once or twice a year.It begins by moving approx. 100to120% in a very short time(4to8 wks)then corrects sideways,usually in 3 or 5 wks.,no more than 10 to 20%.It is the stongest pattern but is risky and very difficult to correctly recognize or interpret.Many stocks can skyrocket 200% or more off this formation. So anyone else think ADVP is in a high tight flag formation? Thanks Ari Tom Worley wrote: > ROE 18%, sales growing faster than earnings, suggesting > lower cost efficiency despite higher sales, or lower end > services. Funds already have 30%. Stock way too extended for > a new buy, tho would hold if already in. With a trailing PE > of 48, may still have some juice left in it despite already > higher than the excessive PE of the S&P500. Otherwise, got a > lot of good CS elements in it. > > Tom W > stkguru@netside.net > ICQ # 5568838 > > -----Original Message----- > From: David Laswson > To: canslim@lists.xmission.com > Date: Sunday, March 07, 1999 10:00 AM > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Growth Stock Analytics Report for > March 8, 1999 > > Any comments about ADVP? I beleive it has formed a high > tight flag formation. > > ARI > > - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Patrick Wahl" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] DCLK - classic cup & handle Date: 07 Mar 1999 20:02:21 -0800 > DCLK broke out of a classic cup & handle taking out its old high. I think if you didn't catch this one of Friday, it is too late, already up roughly 20% from its buy point. - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Robert Miller" Subject: Re: ADVP (was Re: [CANSLIM] Growth Stock Analytics Report for March 8, 1999) Date: 07 Mar 1999 23:50:02 -0500 By this definition of a flag, which is close to the definition given in most TA books, ADVP does not qualify. Close because a flag should last no more than 3 to 5 weeks, at the absolute most. In addition, this stock has not moved enough to form a flag and is moving out of a larger base. Also, just like the handle of a cup, a flag should not drift upwards (unless the flag is forming in a downtrend). Rob -----Original Message----- 8, 1999) >Tom, > Sorry I think you misunderstand.In HTMMIS pg.157 WON says, "High, >tight flags are rare.A high tight flag price pattern is rare and occurs >no more than once or twice a year.It begins by moving approx. 100to120% >in a very short time(4to8 wks)then corrects sideways,usually in 3 or 5 >wks.,no more than 10 to 20%.It is the stongest pattern but is risky and >very difficult to correctly recognize or interpret.Many stocks can >skyrocket 200% or more off this formation. > So anyone else think ADVP is in a high tight flag formation? > Thanks Ari > > > >Tom Worley wrote: > >> ROE 18%, sales growing faster than earnings, suggesting >> lower cost efficiency despite higher sales, or lower end >> services. Funds already have 30%. Stock way too extended for >> a new buy, tho would hold if already in. With a trailing PE >> of 48, may still have some juice left in it despite already >> higher than the excessive PE of the S&P500. Otherwise, got a >> lot of good CS elements in it. >> >> Tom W >> stkguru@netside.net >> ICQ # 5568838 >> >> -----Original Message----- >> From: David Laswson >> To: canslim@lists.xmission.com >> Date: Sunday, March 07, 1999 10:00 AM >> Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Growth Stock Analytics Report for >> March 8, 1999 >> >> Any comments about ADVP? I beleive it has formed a high >> tight flag formation. >> >> ARI >> >> - > > >- > > - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: musicant@autobahn.org (Dan Musicant) Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] "M" for Monday, misc. (& appropriate titles) Date: 08 Mar 1999 15:15:27 GMT On Sun, 7 Mar 1999 21:38:20 -0500, you wrote: :Japan continuing its rally of last week, up now 168 pts :(1.13%) and breaking 15,000. Rest of Asia also up, setting a :good tone (if it holds thru the night) for Europe. Dollar :remains strong against most major currencies. : :Friday's economic reports appear to have dispelled a fear of :an impending Fed rate hike. Doesn't prevent it, just :postpones it, so we get to go thru that "fear" later this :year, IMHO. : :I would like to ask all members (and I'm as guilty as any) :to take a look at the subject line of any response you plan :to send after clicking on Reply. Try to make it pertinent to :your reply. And if you are really posting something totally :unrelated to what you are clicking on, send a fresh email :rather than a reply to something totally unrelated. I :realize it's easier to click on reply than to initiate a new :email, but it only takes a minute to add the group address :(canslim@xmission.com) to your address book and use that :instead thereafter. : :Tom W :stkguru@netside.net :ICQ # 5568838 : I have that address in my address book, but the easier method here would be to go on and make that reply in a thread and then just edit the subject line. That way you can still quote something in the current thread, if desired, or delete any of that for a new topic altogether. It works in my email program. Dan - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Robert J Knott Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Growth Stock Analytics Report for March 8, 1999 JAKK Date: 08 Mar 1999 08:17:44 -0800 JAKK had news: MALIBU, Calif.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--March 8, 1999--JAKKS Pacific Inc. (Nasdaq/NM:JAKK) Monday announced that it has signed agreements with the World Wrestling Federation(R) (WWF) and the National Hot Rod Association (NHRA) to produce a full line of WWF racing vehicles based on actual WWF Funny Cars that will be featured in the 1999 NHRA Drag Racing Series. In connection with these new agreements and to support the growing activity of its "wheels" line, JAKKS Pacific recently hired Jack McGrath as vice president of product development, vehicles. McGrath most recently served for five years at Mattel Inc., where he successfully launched the Hot Wheel Collector/Direct Mail/Racing and Web site E-commerce programs. In his new role at JAKKS Pacific, McGrath will oversee marketing and product development for the company's Road Champs line of die-cast vehicles, trucks and planes, as well as its Remco(R) vehicle line. > -----Original Message----- > > Growth Stock Analytics Report for March 8, 1999: > > Source: Growth Stock Analytics' Canslim Based HI-EPSRS > Database > http://www.growthstockanalytics.com > > Anbody have an opinion on JAKKS PACIFIC (JAKK)? Broke out of > a base > around $15. Now around $15.75. IBD at 99,96,B,A,A. PE of 18, > to grow at > 29%, Quarterly Earnings have Accelerated, Some Insider > Buying, 6 Analysts > Rate it a Strong Buy, 1 a Buy. Top Ranked Stock in our > database. > > - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Johan Van Houtven Subject: [CANSLIM] 'M' Followthrough day Date: 08 Mar 1999 21:57:24 +0100 While the real followthrough day probably is 02/22, I'd like to call this another followthrough day. 4th day of the rally (counting from the last low close on 03/02). No matter how you count them, a lot of stocks I'm watching did real good today. I hope we'll break the middle of the W (2004-ish) real soon now. Anyone besides me 100% or more invested yet? Johan - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: dbphoenix Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Updating WOW Data Date: 08 Mar 1999 13:51:56 -0800 (PST) Patrick, you can probably get the help you need from a WOWS board I started on Yahoo: http://clubs.yahoo.com/clubs/wowsusers --Db == "Lessons are repeated until they are learned." http://home.talkcity.com//MoneySt/dbphoenix/ _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: dbphoenix Subject: [CANSLIM] Re: CANSLIM discussion group Date: 08 Mar 1999 15:20:08 -0800 (PST) There's also a group on Yahoo at http://clubs.yahoo.com/clubs/canslim. --Db == "Lessons are repeated until they are learned." http://home.talkcity.com//MoneySt/dbphoenix/ _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: How to Post (was Re: [CANSLIM] "M" for Monday, misc. (& appropriate titles)) Date: 08 Mar 1999 21:55:50 -0500 Hi Dan, Guess I'm just lazy, or trying to save on keystrokes (hey, my keyboard's old and has a finite nr of keystrokes left, I just don't know what the nr is!). For me, I have the address with a title of CANSLIM, and it's the first "C" in my book, thus I click on "Compose Message", the cursor automatically ends up on the "To" line, I type a "C" (or "c" if I'm particularly lazy), and the rest is filled in for me. Course, if I'm actually responding to something in a post, then I click on Reply instead. But I was referring to the increasing nr of posters piggybacking on a totally unrelated post. Tom W stkguru@netside.net ICQ # 5568838 -----Original Message----- titles) On Sun, 7 Mar 1999 21:38:20 -0500, you wrote: :: :I would like to ask all members (and I'm as guilty as any) :to take a look at the subject line of any response you plan :to send after clicking on Reply. Try to make it pertinent to :your reply. And if you are really posting something totally :unrelated to what you are clicking on, send a fresh email :rather than a reply to something totally unrelated. I :realize it's easier to click on reply than to initiate a new :email, but it only takes a minute to add the group address :(canslim@xmission.com) to your address book and use that :instead thereafter. : :Tom W :stkguru@netside.net :ICQ # 5568838 : I have that address in my address book, but the easier method here would be to go on and make that reply in a thread and then just edit the subject line. That way you can still quote something in the current thread, if desired, or delete any of that for a new topic altogether. It works in my email program. Dan - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "mikelu" Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] 'M' Followthrough day Date: 08 Mar 1999 22:30:05 -0800 Me. > -----Original Message----- > From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com > [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of Johan Van Houtven > Sent: Monday, March 08, 1999 12:57 PM > To: canslim@lists.xmission.com > Subject: [CANSLIM] 'M' Followthrough day > > > While the real followthrough day probably is 02/22, I'd like to call this > another followthrough day. 4th day of the rally (counting from > the last low > close on 03/02). > > No matter how you count them, a lot of stocks I'm watching did real good > today. > > I hope we'll break the middle of the W (2004-ish) real soon now. > > Anyone besides me 100% or more invested yet? > > > > Johan > > > > > > > - > > - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Tim Fisher Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] 'M' Followthrough day Date: 09 Mar 1999 07:40:13 -0800 I have a few K around with no real good candidates to put it in (i.e. large cap, non-net, based, breaking out). Went in on MRK and HD this AM, both @ all time highs, quasi-breakouts yesterday from quasi-bases. I missed SEBL, what a nice breakout yesterday. Unfortunately I was on a gasoline spill since Friday and didn't catch any of Monday's action till it was all over. At 10:30 PM 3/8/99 -0800, you wrote: >Me. > >> -----Original Message----- >> From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com >> [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of Johan Van Houtven >> Sent: Monday, March 08, 1999 12:57 PM >> To: canslim@lists.xmission.com >> Subject: [CANSLIM] 'M' Followthrough day >> >> >> While the real followthrough day probably is 02/22, I'd like to call this >> another followthrough day. 4th day of the rally (counting from >> the last low >> close on 03/02). >> >> No matter how you count them, a lot of stocks I'm watching did real good >> today. >> >> I hope we'll break the middle of the W (2004-ish) real soon now. >> >> Anyone besides me 100% or more invested yet? >> >> >> >> Johan >> >> >> >> >> >> >> - >> >> > >- > Tim Fisher, 1995 President, Pacific Fishery Biologists Ore-ROCK-On Rockhounding Web Site PFB Information mailto:tim@OreRockOn.com WWW http://OreRockOn.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Tim Fisher Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] JAKK Date: 09 Mar 1999 07:46:14 -0800 Reminds me of ACTN, bot it a couple years ago on similar news (NASCAR toy deal); broke out then did nothing for a long time. Finally got sick of it & sold it. Was a perfect CANSLIM stock at the time, just in the wrong industry. I can remember many toy/game co's that looked real promising for a short time (Radisys, THQ); if it has already moved a sig. amount than I'd be inclined to pass on it. At 08:17 AM 3/8/99 -0800, you wrote: >JAKK had >news: MALIBU, >Calif.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--March 8, 1999--JAKKS Pacific Inc. >(Nasdaq/NM:JAKK) Monday > announced that it has signed agreements with the World >Wrestling Federation(R) (WWF) and the National Hot > Rod Association (NHRA) to produce a full line of WWF racing >vehicles based on actual WWF Funny Cars that > will be featured in the 1999 NHRA Drag Racing >Series. > > >In connection with these new agreements and to support the growing >activity of its "wheels" line, JAKKS Pacific > recently hired Jack McGrath as vice president of product >development, vehicles. McGrath most recently served > for five years at Mattel Inc., where he successfully launched >the Hot Wheel Collector/Direct Mail/Racing and Web > site E-commerce programs. > > In his new role at JAKKS Pacific, McGrath will oversee >marketing and product development for the company's > Road Champs line of die-cast vehicles, trucks and planes, as >well as its Remco(R) vehicle line. > > >> -----Original Message----- >> >> Growth Stock Analytics Report for March 8, 1999: >> >> Source: Growth Stock Analytics' Canslim Based HI-EPSRS >> Database >> http://www.growthstockanalytics.com >> >> Anbody have an opinion on JAKKS PACIFIC (JAKK)? Broke out of >> a base >> around $15. Now around $15.75. IBD at 99,96,B,A,A. PE of 18, >> to grow at >> 29%, Quarterly Earnings have Accelerated, Some Insider >> Buying, 6 Analysts >> Rate it a Strong Buy, 1 a Buy. Top Ranked Stock in our >> database. >> Tim Fisher, 1995 President, Pacific Fishery Biologists Ore-ROCK-On Rockhounding Web Site PFB Information mailto:tim@OreRockOn.com WWW http://OreRockOn.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: [CANSLIM] "M", etc. Date: 10 Mar 1999 00:16:01 -0500 Probably the best comment I've read lately on this market: Ed von der Linde, the insightful fund manager the Lord Abett mid cap value fund told me today that we are in a jelly fish market. He explained that a bull market is defined by improving fundamentals that push up profits; a bear market is marked by a deterioration of said fundamentals that leads to decline in profits. "What we have is a momentum market, so fundamentals are irrelevant," Ed said. So why jelly fish? "They're born without a backbone, so they can't get in trouble by taking a position. They also don't have brains, which keeps them out of trouble in this kind of market. They also travel in swarms, so if you go against a jelly fish market, you can get stung." With all this activity and noise from the group, I may be forced to switch to the digest version just to cut down on all the email!! Just kidding. After my 14+ hour workdays, all the email I seem to get any more is from the stuff I subscribe to, and that's really boring, but necessary, stuff on economics, int'l politics, etc. Kinda interesting in an intellectual way, but nothing like the amusing, challenging, insightful stuff I'm used to getting from our group. Has everyone gone to sleep, or to cash? Doesn't anyone have any questions or opinions on some stock, or "M", or anything? With over 700 members, can't remember this group ever being this quiet. Is this an omen? 20% correction, crash ahead? Major rally and breakout imminent? Heck, I'm almost desperate enough to read posts on computer screening software that I'll never buy. Tom W stkguru@netside.net ICQ # 5568838 - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "james sullivan" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] "M", etc. Date: 10 Mar 1999 06:37:24 -0500 >Has >everyone gone to sleep, or to cash? Doesn't anyone have any >questions or opinions on some stock, or "M", or anything? okay..i'll bite :^) please give me your opinions on my "jellyfish" positions....they are HD, AXP, and DCLK thank you tom - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] "M", etc. Date: 10 Mar 1999 07:21:43 -0500 Hi Jim, While none of the three are true CANSLIM stocks, they look to be good places to have money if you are remaining invested in today's mkt. People will continue to make improvements to their home, maybe even using their American Express card to pay for the purchase, so you kill two birds with one stone. Double Click, if you can handle the volatility, has held up well. I don't like the slow reduction in the losses, tho the forecast for 2000 shows a major improvement. Tom W stkguru@netside.net ICQ # 5568838 -----Original Message----- >Has >everyone gone to sleep, or to cash? Doesn't anyone have any >questions or opinions on some stock, or "M", or anything? okay..i'll bite :^) please give me your opinions on my "jellyfish" positions....they are HD, AXP, and DCLK thank you tom - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Dan Cash Subject: [CANSLIM] Hi tight flag? Date: 10 Mar 1999 07:50:15 -0800 Does a high tight flag formation without the flag pole, i.e. a gap up, constitute a high tight flag formation? Dan - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Dan Cash Subject: [CANSLIM] Re: Hi tight flag? with addendum Date: 10 Mar 1999 07:53:23 -0800 Dan Cash wrote: > Does a high tight flag formation without the flag pole, i.e. a gap > up, constitute a high tight flag formation? And is it bullish? Dan - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Joe Scott" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] "M", etc. Date: 10 Mar 1999 11:22:48 -0500 No Tom,, no correction, no omen, I'm still not even 100% invested, let alone on margin.. I'll let you know,, ... ;-) joe - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: mckeen@ix.netcom.com Subject: [CANSLIM] Float Date: 10 Mar 1999 10:58:52 -0600 (CST) I know the float are those shares still available, however, when someone buys or sells, isn't an opposite trade necessary for the trade to occur? So how can there be outstanding shares? A basic question perhaps, but I'm a bit perplexed. Thanks, Mary - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] "M", etc. Date: 10 Mar 1999 11:00:05 -0700 Tom, Been enjoying yours and all other posts since I joined this group. I had been about 70% cash but added HD on 3/5 and AOL & SPLS today. Saw your comment on HD but what do you think of the other two? Thanks, Ziggy. Tom Worley wrote: > Probably the best comment I've read lately on this market: > > Ed von der Linde, the insightful fund manager the Lord Abett > mid cap value fund told me today that we are in a jelly fish > market. He explained that a bull market is defined by > improving fundamentals that push up profits; a bear market > is marked by a deterioration of said fundamentals that leads > to decline in profits. "What we have is a momentum market, > so fundamentals are irrelevant," Ed said. So why jelly fish? > "They're born without a backbone, so they can't get in > trouble by taking a position. They also don't have brains, > which keeps them out of trouble in this kind of market. They > also travel in swarms, so if you go against a jelly fish > market, you can get stung." > > With all this activity and noise from the group, I may be > forced to switch to the digest version just to cut down on > all the email!! Just kidding. After my 14+ hour workdays, > all the email I seem to get any more is from the stuff I > subscribe to, and that's really boring, but necessary, stuff > on economics, int'l politics, etc. Kinda interesting in an > intellectual way, but nothing like the amusing, challenging, > insightful stuff I'm used to getting from our group. Has > everyone gone to sleep, or to cash? Doesn't anyone have any > questions or opinions on some stock, or "M", or anything? > With over 700 members, can't remember this group ever being > this quiet. Is this an omen? 20% correction, crash ahead? > Major rally and breakout imminent? Heck, I'm almost > desperate enough to read posts on computer screening > software that I'll never buy. > > Tom W > stkguru@netside.net > ICQ # 5568838 > > - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] "M", etc. Date: 10 Mar 1999 11:00:05 -0700 Tom, Been enjoying yours and all other posts since I joined this group. I had been about 70% cash but added HD on 3/5 and AOL & SPLS today. Saw your comment on HD but what do you think of the other two? Thanks, Ziggy. Tom Worley wrote: > Probably the best comment I've read lately on this market: > > Ed von der Linde, the insightful fund manager the Lord Abett > mid cap value fund told me today that we are in a jelly fish > market. He explained that a bull market is defined by > improving fundamentals that push up profits; a bear market > is marked by a deterioration of said fundamentals that leads > to decline in profits. "What we have is a momentum market, > so fundamentals are irrelevant," Ed said. So why jelly fish? > "They're born without a backbone, so they can't get in > trouble by taking a position. They also don't have brains, > which keeps them out of trouble in this kind of market. They > also travel in swarms, so if you go against a jelly fish > market, you can get stung." > > With all this activity and noise from the group, I may be > forced to switch to the digest version just to cut down on > all the email!! Just kidding. After my 14+ hour workdays, > all the email I seem to get any more is from the stuff I > subscribe to, and that's really boring, but necessary, stuff > on economics, int'l politics, etc. Kinda interesting in an > intellectual way, but nothing like the amusing, challenging, > insightful stuff I'm used to getting from our group. Has > everyone gone to sleep, or to cash? Doesn't anyone have any > questions or opinions on some stock, or "M", or anything? > With over 700 members, can't remember this group ever being > this quiet. Is this an omen? 20% correction, crash ahead? > Major rally and breakout imminent? Heck, I'm almost > desperate enough to read posts on computer screening > software that I'll never buy. > > Tom W > stkguru@netside.net > ICQ # 5568838 > > - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: PWahl@sysinn.com Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] Float Date: 10 Mar 1999 11:16:22 -0700 > -----Original Message----- > From: mckeen@ix.netcom.com [SMTP:mckeen@ix.netcom.com] > Sent: Wednesday, March 10, 1999 9:59 AM > To: canslim@xmission.com > Subject: [CANSLIM] Float > > I know the float are those shares still > available, however, when someone buys or > sells, isn't an opposite trade necessary > for the trade to occur? So how can there > be outstanding shares? > > [Wahl, Patrick] Your definition is a bit off, float are those share that are not tightly held, versus shares that are held by insiders that may not trade for years (probably the msft shares bill gates holds fall in this category) and are not part of the float. All fall under the category of outstanding shares, but for the most part only those that are part of the float are traded. (If this is wrong Prof. Tom can correct it :) - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Tim Fisher Subject: [CANSLIM] More proof that this is a big cap market Date: 10 Mar 1999 13:48:58 -0800 Read the Fool's article on AEOS (A nice piece of work for the erratic MF folks) & am surprised that it can barely hold up it's recent gains. In fact it has had 2 failed breakouts since mid-Dec and this last one that finally held was a stealth breakout without either the price move or the volume. Guess if you're a small cap even blowing away estimates on a tough SQLY comparison doesn't count. Reason #2 is OSTE's failed breakout which is turning into a heack of a short for someone (probably has something to do with a lawsuit too). Tim Fisher Ore-Rock-On and Pacific Fishery Biologists WWW Sites Tim@OreRockOn.com WWW: http://OreRockOn.com See naked fish and rocks! - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "sam morrison" Subject: [CANSLIM] jellyfish market Date: 10 Mar 1999 20:15:13 -0500 I'm one of the 700 or so quiet members. I've been lurking off and on and have even made a couple of posts, but it's been a while. I apologize for not properly introducing myself, I've been meaning to get around to it. I believe I have a classic canslim experience that I would like to share. On 12/18/98 I took a nice size position in OCLI on what I considered a breakout from a cup w/ handle formation. I thought it was perfect. I spotted the chart in the previous Friday's IBD. The beauty of it to me is this: I did it all myself just like WON teaches. No analysts, no hype, no TV. Just me and my IBD and the principles that I learned in HTMMIS. Everything went beautifully, for a while. I was shaken out on 2/12/99. In my mind the overall market was signalling distribution and I jumped ship. Like WON in the beginning of his career, I was was right but got nervous and sold to soon. I say to myself over and over again, it's not about being right but making big money when I am right. I am taking a position in ANSR to get my feet wet again. - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Float Date: 10 Mar 1999 21:52:12 -0500 Essentially right, however "non float" shares don't have to be held by insiders. They can also be held by lenders in bridge financing where they haven't yet been registered, or other type financing in which the shares are unregistered. They can also be represented by certain institutional holders, Treasury shares, shares held by the company's 401 plan, etc. In theory, and under some definitions, shares held by mutual funds might not be considered part of the float. However, since they are fully registered and able to be sold on a moment's notice (and considering just how "short term" some funds managers can be), these shares are generally considered part of the float as they meet the test of "freely trading". This is why DG expresses the funds holdings as a percentage of the float, rather than the issue, as it shows a more dynamic number and more accurately reflects a funds potential influence on the price of a stock. And, yes, Bill Gates' gazillion dollars worth of stock would be treated as an insider holding, part of the total issue but not included in the float except when he pieces a small portion, say several million shares, out to the public market. In many cases his sells are sold directly into the hands of large institutional managers, yet they still represent an increase in the float without any increase in the total issue since they are fully registered and able to be sold at any time. Tom W stkguru@netside.net ICQ # 5568838 -----Original Message----- > -----Original Message----- > From: mckeen@ix.netcom.com [SMTP:mckeen@ix.netcom.com] > Sent: Wednesday, March 10, 1999 9:59 AM > To: canslim@xmission.com > Subject: [CANSLIM] Float > > I know the float are those shares still > available, however, when someone buys or > sells, isn't an opposite trade necessary > for the trade to occur? So how can there > be outstanding shares? > > [Wahl, Patrick] Your definition is a bit off, float are those share that are not tightly held, versus shares that are held by insiders that may not trade for years (probably the msft shares bill gates holds fall in this category) and are not part of the float. All fall under the category of outstanding shares, but for the most part only those that are part of the float are traded. (If this is wrong Prof. Tom can correct it :) - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Tim Fisher Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] ANSR Date: 10 Mar 1999 19:54:20 -0800 Why ANSR? They just went public, therefore no historical data that I can find. The chart is not a WON formation, looks like a second stage breakout from a sloppy base to me. Earnings accelleration looks good to me & they certainly surprise to the upside, but how you get RS, EPS, GRS, ROE, D/E, Q0/Q-4, Q-1/Q-5, etc. without the data? At 08:15 PM 3/10/99 -0500, you wrote: > I'm one of the 700 or so quiet members. I've been lurking off and on and >have even made a couple of posts, but it's been a while. I apologize for not >properly introducing myself, I've been meaning to get around to it. I >believe I have a classic canslim experience that I would like to share. > On 12/18/98 I took a nice size position in OCLI on what I considered a >breakout from a cup w/ handle formation. I thought it was perfect. I spotted >the chart in the previous Friday's IBD. The beauty of it to me is this: I >did it all myself just like WON teaches. No analysts, no hype, no TV. Just >me and my IBD and the principles that I learned in HTMMIS. Everything went >beautifully, for a while. > I was shaken out on 2/12/99. In my mind the overall market was signalling >distribution and I jumped ship. Like WON in the beginning of his career, I >was was right but got nervous and sold to soon. > I say to myself over and over again, it's not about being right but making >big money when I am right. > I am taking a position in ANSR to get my feet wet again. > > > >- > Tim Fisher, 1995 President, Pacific Fishery Biologists Ore-ROCK-On Rockhounding Web Site PFB Information mailto:tim@OreRockOn.com WWW http://OreRockOn.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: ANSR (was Re: [CANSLIM] jellyfish market) Date: 10 Mar 1999 23:46:24 -0500 I read Tim's response on Answerthink Consulting, which is the name DGO comes up with for this symbol, but don't quite understand Tim's point unless he got a different stock. On DGO, the stock doesn't show as a recent IPO, and has RS of 96 and EPS of 80, so meets that first and basic test. Management has a 37% stake in the issue, and funds only have reported a 6% holding in the float so far. I notice it's based here in Miami, FL and am embarrassed to admit I've never heard of it before, don't know what that says aside from I've been real busy and not reading the local papers lately. I did check the phone book, and they have two local offices listed, one of which is in the building I used to work in until last April, just six blocks south of my current employment, and on the southern edge of the financial district of Miami. Looking at earnings, DGO data suggests a math error (which I will email them about) as the latest full year (1998) shows a net of 0.63 while adding up the four quarters reports only shows 0.34, a big difference and haven't researched it to see which is correct. It's a big deal if the .63 is correct, as it indicates a 21% drop in the current year, while if the .34 is right, then the .50 projected for the current year is a healthy increase in earnings. Otherwise, it appears to meet most CANSLIM criteria, A/A, GRS of 87, steady increases in both sales and earnings on sequential and year to year basis, etc. No ROE reported, but short term looks good. High debt, but that could change quickly if they convert debt to stock. Tom W stkguru@netside.net ICQ # 5568838 -----Original Message----- I'm one of the 700 or so quiet members. I've been lurking off and on and I am taking a position in ANSR to get my feet wet again. - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Joe Scott" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] ANSR Date: 11 Mar 1999 07:29:42 -0500 >>>>Why ANSR? They just went public, therefore no historical data that I can find. The chart is not a WON formation, looks like a second stage breakout from a sloppy base to me. Earnings accelleration looks good to me & they certainly surprise to the upside, but how you get RS, EPS, GRS, ROE, D/E, Q0/Q-4, Q-1/Q-5, etc. without the data?<<<<< and you wonder why people don't post.. you'll never be accused of being subtle Tim.. the chart looked excellent to me, a perfect breakout from a 6 week cup and handle.. Volume looked perfect.. If you got in around 32.00 it looks very good to me.. Judging from your intro it sounds to me that you do your homework before entering a position.. Good luck,,, joe - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: AOL, SPLS (was Re: [CANSLIM] "M", etc.) Date: 10 Mar 1999 23:04:42 -0500 Hi Ziggy, AOL certainly meets many of the CANSLIM "yardsticks", including RS and EPS. It appears well on the way to meeting, or even beating, the 1999 earnings forecasts, which will drop it below the 300 trailing PE. Certainly, it has proven itself not only a leader but also an innovator among the internet stocks. It is a competitor, and will continue to improve upon its products and services. One minor comment, which could be significant. Note the insider (management) holdings of only 3% compared to another entrepreneual company, Microsoft, which is far more mature and profitable, and still has 32% insider holdings. AOL's founders and managers have lost control of the stock. They have already made their millions, and can bail with little consequence as they choose. On Staples, you're dealing with relatively lower profit margins, and ever increasing competition. Price increases could be difficult so profit increases also difficult without improving efficiencies, and that's tough in an essentially volume based retail environment. I think I read that Office Depot has now opened its "internet" warehouse, as just one example of the competition. I again note the lack of management participation in the stock price (4% ownership), all they are "risking" are their stock option compensations. Looking at their last several years earnings improvements makes me highly sceptical of the forecast for the current year. And, as I've mentioned before, I greatly dislike cos with non-standard fiscal quarters and years. With a year ending January, their earnings reports are off cycle, gives them greater exposure but also greater scrutiny in the absence of competing news. And I've found the combo more negative than positive for most cos. I expect to see sales increases but not matched by equal or greater earnings increases, as they grow the volume, but with lower profit margins. Tom W stkguru@netside.net ICQ # 5568838 -----Original Message----- Cc: CANSLIM Tom, Been enjoying yours and all other posts since I joined this group. I had been about 70% cash but added HD on 3/5 and AOL & SPLS today. Saw your comment on HD but what do you think of the other two? Thanks, Ziggy. Tom Worley wrote: > Probably the best comment I've read lately on this market: > > Ed von der Linde, the insightful fund manager the Lord Abett > mid cap value fund told me today that we are in a jelly fish > market. He explained that a bull market is defined by > improving fundamentals that push up profits; a bear market > is marked by a deterioration of said fundamentals that leads > to decline in profits. "What we have is a momentum market, > so fundamentals are irrelevant," Ed said. So why jelly fish? > "They're born without a backbone, so they can't get in > trouble by taking a position. They also don't have brains, > which keeps them out of trouble in this kind of market. They > also travel in swarms, so if you go against a jelly fish > market, you can get stung." > > With all this activity and noise from the group, I may be > forced to switch to the digest version just to cut down on > all the email!! Just kidding. After my 14+ hour workdays, > all the email I seem to get any more is from the stuff I > subscribe to, and that's really boring, but necessary, stuff > on economics, int'l politics, etc. Kinda interesting in an > intellectual way, but nothing like the amusing, challenging, > insightful stuff I'm used to getting from our group. Has > everyone gone to sleep, or to cash? Doesn't anyone have any > questions or opinions on some stock, or "M", or anything? > With over 700 members, can't remember this group ever being > this quiet. Is this an omen? 20% correction, crash ahead? > Major rally and breakout imminent? Heck, I'm almost > desperate enough to read posts on computer screening > software that I'll never buy. > > Tom W > stkguru@netside.net > ICQ # 5568838 > > - - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: mckeen@ix.netcom.com Subject: [CANSLIM] Float Date: 11 Mar 1999 07:58:05 -0600 (CST) Patrick, Don't understand fully. Difference is between tightly-held and not tightly-held. Float represents the not-tightly-held. So then, when I trade, I can only buy or sell not-tightly- held shares?? Will do some additional reading on this, Patrick. Thanks for your reply. Regards, Mary - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Tim Fisher Subject: Re: ANSR (was Re: [CANSLIM] jellyfish market) Date: 11 Mar 1999 07:28:57 -0800 I am going off Yahoo data since Zacks doesn't cover it. They show an IPO in June 98 and EPS comparisons SQLY show as N/A except this most recent quarter. At 11:46 PM 3/10/99 -0500, you wrote: >I read Tim's response on Answerthink Consulting, which is >the name DGO comes up with for this symbol, but don't quite >understand Tim's point unless he got a different stock. On >DGO, the stock doesn't show as a recent IPO, and has RS of >96 and EPS of 80, so meets that first and basic test. >Management has a 37% stake in the issue, and funds only have >reported a 6% holding in the float so far. I notice it's >based here in Miami, FL and am embarrassed to admit I've >never heard of it before, don't know what that says aside >from I've been real busy and not reading the local papers >lately. I did check the phone book, and they have two local >offices listed, one of which is in the building I used to >work in until last April, just six blocks south of my >current employment, and on the southern edge of the >financial district of Miami. > >Looking at earnings, DGO data suggests a math error (which I >will email them about) as the latest full year (1998) shows >a net of 0.63 while adding up the four quarters reports only >shows 0.34, a big difference and haven't researched it to >see which is correct. It's a big deal if the .63 is correct, >as it indicates a 21% drop in the current year, while if the >.34 is right, then the .50 projected for the current year is >a healthy increase in earnings. > >Otherwise, it appears to meet most CANSLIM criteria, A/A, >GRS of 87, steady increases in both sales and earnings on >sequential and year to year basis, etc. No ROE reported, but >short term looks good. High debt, but that could change >quickly if they convert debt to stock. > >Tom W >stkguru@netside.net >ICQ # 5568838 > Tim Fisher, 1995 President, Pacific Fishery Biologists Ore-ROCK-On Rockhounding Web Site PFB Information mailto:tim@OreRockOn.com WWW http://OreRockOn.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Connie Mack Rea Subject: [CANSLIM] Trading and swing trading. [Connie Mack] Date: 11 Mar 1999 11:07:50 -0500 In private correspondence, I know that four are trading or swing trading in MU, two in NOVL, and one in ACI. Should there be others who have not mailed me, I'll say here some of what I have said privately. NOVL still looks good. We have benefited most profitably from the up gap in NOVL. I can take no credit for this good fortune. Keep stops active. MU gapped up this morning. Once again we are benefactors without foreknowledge of the upturn. MU has had a sufficient correction. I have set my stop at 55 and will not give up any profit below that number. As of 11:00, the up gap has been much reduced. The buy/sell indicators in MU, before this morning's action, were flat to deteriorating short term. Were there not this gap up today, I likely would have let all positions go for re-entry later. Be careful here. Don't forget that stocks have a tendency to retreat back into gaps. Therefore, move stops intraday to protect profits. Then go to your intraday, 2-day, and 5-day charts for a re-entry point. But don't ignore your indicators. Keep in mind, too, where the market indexes are. Entering a stock at any market high, irrespective of a stock high, requires intraday vigilance. ACI is returning to my upper trading limit of 11.25. I have been trading between 10.75 and 11.25. The stock had fallen to 10; its rise today means that it has come a long way in a short time. Do not get greedy if you are trading between my numbers. Though I have not traded CIEN lately, I did post about it. The MACD and SloSto are contradictory on a 3-mos. chart. If you've a profit (and I know one member has), don't hesitate to protect it. Connie Mack - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Connie Mack Rea Subject: [CANSLIM] Trading and swing trading. [Connie Mack] Date: 11 Mar 1999 11:29:52 -0500 This is a follow up of an earlier post. ACI has passed my 11.25 exit point. I will try to empty one half of my position at 11 7/16. I have been a bit greedy to hold off this long, but intraday indicators have looked strong at 11:23. As long as the major indexes hold up, I will hold my other half. When they deteriorate, I'll release the remainder. There may be a chance to re-enter around 11 or so. Intraday action will dictate if there is to be a re-entry. Connie Mack - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Rich Ralph Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Trading and swing trading. [Connie Mack] Date: 11 Mar 1999 12:11:55 -0500 Connie, You might want to look through Yahoo news on Arch Coal, the news is not good. I know you don't consider news in your decisions, but I'd be remiss if I didn't at least point this out. RR At 11:29 AM 3/11/99 -0500, you wrote: >This is a follow up of an earlier post. > >ACI has passed my 11.25 exit point. I will try to empty one half of my >position at 11 7/16. I have been a bit greedy to hold off this long, >but intraday indicators have looked strong at 11:23. As long as the >major indexes hold up, I will hold my other half. When they >deteriorate, I'll release the remainder. > >There may be a chance to re-enter around 11 or so. Intraday action will >dictate if there is to be a re-entry. > >Connie Mack > > >- Best regards, Rich Ralph "Walk in quietly, take the money, and walk out quietly." TheStreet.com -->> read it, and learn from it. Stick to the fundamentals, accept a reasonable return, and go to church for miracles, not Wall Street. - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Rich Ralph Subject: [CANSLIM] Sorry, my mistake (was Re: Swing trading) Date: 11 Mar 1999 12:20:46 -0500 Sorry folks, I didn't mean to send that to the list. Best regards, Rich Ralph - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Connie Mack Rea Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Trading and swing trading. [Connie Mack] Date: 11 Mar 1999 12:30:08 -0500 Thanks, Rich. I just unloaded my last position at 11 7/16. Connie Rich Ralph wrote: > Connie, > > You might want to look through Yahoo news on Arch Coal, the news is not > good. I know you don't consider news in your decisions, but I'd be remiss > if I didn't at least point this out. > > RR > > At 11:29 AM 3/11/99 -0500, you wrote: > >This is a follow up of an earlier post. > > > >ACI has passed my 11.25 exit point. I will try to empty one half of my > >position at 11 7/16. I have been a bit greedy to hold off this long, > >but intraday indicators have looked strong at 11:23. As long as the > >major indexes hold up, I will hold my other half. When they > >deteriorate, I'll release the remainder. > > > >There may be a chance to re-enter around 11 or so. Intraday action will > >dictate if there is to be a re-entry. > > > >Connie Mack > > > > > >- > > Best regards, > Rich Ralph > "Walk in quietly, take the money, and walk out quietly." > TheStreet.com -->> read it, and learn from > it. Stick to the fundamentals, accept a reasonable return, and go to > church for miracles, not Wall Street. > > - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Connie Mack Rea Subject: [CANSLIM] Trading [Parabolic SAR and MACD] [Connie Mack] Date: 11 Mar 1999 17:20:36 -0500 I occasionally mention the Parabolic SAR as an indicator that is useful as a confirmation of other indicators [MACD, SloSto, and 3/7/10 EMA, for me]. I bought both MU and DELL during the final 45 minutes today. If you're interested in how indicators go into conjunction, you can use BigCharts. Pull up an intraday 15-minute chart with the Parabolic and the 3/7/10 EMA in the upper window; put the MACD in the bottom. Notice the conjunction of all three in the last 15-30 minutes. The P-SAR, which had been negative all day, turned positive in the final half hour. The 3/7/10 gave a First and Second Level Buy. And the MACD is just a fraction of a point from turning positive. Because I use some pretty fast numbers on my MACD sometimes, it turned positive about 3:30 on my other software. Nevertheless, because the P-SAR and the 3/7/10 turned clearly, I would have anticipated a turn in the MACD and proceeded to buy. If you will look at DELL, you'll see on the intraday chart that the late day conjunction is even stronger. I sold all of my ACI and NOVL during the day. My exit of ACI was quite good. I left 3/8 of a point on the table with NOVL; this was a profitable exit but one where my indicators were set too much like rockets. Less volatile settings would have carried me further into the day. Your attitude on such leavings must always be: Screw it. Where is the next trade? If one lives by rockets, he will die by rockets. And for me, there is no difference between rockets and day trading. Therefore. . . . I mentioned in an earlier post that, even though MU gapped up, I didn't like the looks of my indicators. I said that I had set my stop at 55 and would not sacrifice any of my profit below that number. Notice how early the SAR turned sour--almost from the open. My 3/7/10 got me out at 55.25. Had I waited for the MACD, I would have been taken out below 55. There are in MU several support/resistance lines about two points apart with the upper most one at 54.5. Don't ignore these. As for DELL, overall, it scares me. It could test 39 or so. However, I will not be there for the test. I am averaged out at about 40.625 and will suffer only the slightest loss. CIEN continues to fly. Am sorry to say that I am not aboard. I know one person who is. May he go to the stars. Connie Mack http://aspenres.com/help/aspenParabolic.html - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "sam morrison" Subject: [CANSLIM] IBD and stock selection Date: 11 Mar 1999 18:52:37 -0500 Why ANSR? They just went public, therefore no historical data that I can find. The chart is not a WON formation, looks like a second stage breakout from a sloppy base to me. Earnings acceleration looks good to me & they certainly surprise to the upside, but how you get RS, EPS, GRS, ROE, D/E, Q0/Q-4, Q-1/Q-5, etc. without the data?..................................... I appreciate everyone's feedback. My stock selection criteria is quite simple and simplicity is important to me. I will only purchase a stock that shows up in IBD's graphical display. I only buy stocks that are breaking out on at least 1.5x average volume and especially only during a market surge. For me, if the stock makes IBD's graphical display it is considered a CANSLIM stock and is fair game. Does IBD graphically represent stocks that are not CANSLIM candidates? And if so why? Since IBD was revamped a few month's ago I enjoy it much more and find it infinitely more useful, clear, and timely. I particularly appreciate the markets summary page where significant and associated events are brought to light. - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: [CANSLIM] Fw: ANSR Date: 11 Mar 1999 21:34:14 -0500 Not sure I agree with this answer from DGO, but don't have the time to crunch numbers any further. I fully understand how the "weighed average number of shares" can distort numbers when there has been a large increase, but do not recall seeing such a large difference, nor does this help me grasp what to expect for earnings in the future. Tom W stkguru@netside.net ICQ # 5568838 -----Original Message----- Hi Tom, This letter is a reply to your question regarding earnings information on Answerthink Consulting. The information that is presented in Daily Graphs Online is correct. Allow me to explain how the quarters do not add-up to the year end figure. Between the first and second quarters, this company went public. At that time, the company dramatically increased it shares outstanding. As a result, the last three quarters have a significantly different number used for its calculated EPS. The first quarter EPS information is based on a weighting of shares similar to the last three quarters in order to provide a comparable EPS number. However, the year-end number is as reported by the company and is based on the entire year weight share average. Thus, the quarters, which are reported on a comparable share basis, do not add up to the yearend figure (which includes the first quarter share number). Please let us know if you have other questions or if we can assist you in any way. Best regards, Dan Daily Graphs Online -----Original Message----- Sent: Wednesday, March 10, 1999 8:49 PM Looking at the chart tonight on Answerthink Consulting, after one of my group members asked about it, I can't help but notice that you are showing .63 net earnings for FY98 (ending Dec) yet adding up the four most recent quarters, I only get .34/share. I presume something is in error, but haven't had the time to research it. Please advise what is correct so I can pass it along to the group. Tom W stkguru@netside.net ICQ # 5568838 - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Steve" Subject: [CANSLIM] Off topic question Date: 11 Mar 1999 18:57:40 -0800 If a man makes a statement in a forest, and his wife is not there to hear it, Is he still wrong? Steve Grier scgjd+AEA-ix.netcom.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Patrick Wahl" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Float Date: 11 Mar 1999 20:44:17 -0800 Date sent: Thu, 11 Mar 1999 07:58:05 -0600 (CST) T > Don't understand fully. Difference is between tightly-held > and not tightly-held. Float represents the not-tightly-held. > So then, when I trade, I can only buy or sell not-tightly- > held shares?? Will do some additional reading on this, Patrick. > Thanks for your reply. Float is just all the shares that are floating around out there that are traded every day (not all of them of course are traded every day, some of them). Just because someone owns them for a while, they are still part of the float. I think older companies, a GE, an Exxon, etc., have very close to one hundred percent of their shares out and considered part of the float. Newer companies tend to have a smaller percentage of shares as part of the float. When Netscape first came public, it had maybe 45 million shares, but a float of only 5 million (roughly, this is from my faulty memory), because insiders, investment bankers, etc, had the shares, and at least some of them probably could not be sold for x number of months after the IPO. The 5 mill. would be those sold to the public via brokers on the day of the IPO. Later, after the restriction on selling expires , those shares might be sold by the insiders and the float would increase. Get it? - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Charles Bentley" Subject: [CANSLIM] Fast moving IPO's Date: 11 Mar 1999 22:03:15 -600 If anyone doesn't think the internet hasn't sppeded things up, the following is from E*Trade IPO posting. (I really wanted in on this, but one has to be quick.) 3/10/99 4:35 PM PST E*TRADE is no longer accepting new indications of interest in the Flashnet Communications IPO and Multex.com IPO. If this situation changes we will update this bulletin. These offerings are expected to price during the week of 3/15/99. Customers who placed indications of interest will receive allocation notices at that time. 3/10/99 3:45 PM PST Customers can now place indications of interest in two new public offerings: Flashnet Communications, Inc. (IPO) and Multex.com, Inc. (IPO). See Current Offerings for details. ========================================================== Charles Bentley Solution Group Voice (713) 729-3333 7457 Harwin Dr. Suite 362 FAX (713) 243-9591 Houston, Texas 77036-2017 - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "James Adams" Subject: [CANSLIM] P&F Charts Date: 11 Mar 1999 08:18:09 -0500 I recently was introduced to Point & Figure charts. Does anyone on the list have any experience with them and comments about them. Apparently P&F is one of the oldest charting methods. TIA James Adams jadams@ntr.net jimadams@may-uky.campus.mci.net (until 2/15/99) Maysville, KY USA - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: mckeen@ix.netcom.com Subject: [CANSLIM] Float Date: 12 Mar 1999 09:01:28 -0600 (CST) Hi Patrick, Got it! Thanks. Mary - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: David Laswson Subject: [CANSLIM] ADVP Date: 12 Mar 1999 15:08:07 -0500 If ADVP wasn't a high tight flag,I sure would like to see the performance of a stock that is!!! To bad I lisened to the guy from "growth stock anylyticals"he sounded like he knew what he was talking about.Then again if not for him I wouldn't have anylized ADVP in the first place.Live and learn! Ari - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: David Laswson Subject: [CANSLIM] ADVP HIGH TIGHT FLAG Date: 12 Mar 1999 15:14:40 -0500 Anyone that want's to see an example of a high tight flag look at ADVP! ARI - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Growth Stock Analytics" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] ADVP Date: 12 Mar 1999 15:55:29 -0500 Hi Ari, You're blaming me because a stock from my list was $49.25 last Friday and is now around $56? Not sure I understand. Growth Stock Analytics http://www.growthstockanalytics.com ---------- If ADVP wasn't a high tight flag,I sure would like to see the performance of a stock that is!!! To bad I lisened to the guy from "growth stock anylyticals"he sounded like he knew what he was talking about.Then again if not for him I wouldn't have anylized ADVP in the first place.Live and learn! Ari - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Craig Griffin Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] ADVP Date: 12 Mar 1999 16:16:46 -0500 Ari, ADVP did form a flag formation, but it was not a HTF. This is typically a bullish formation. I would say the formation runs from 3/3 to 3/10. As I remember the day you asked about ADVP was about 3/5. On that day it looked like it was advancing, but the formation was at that time too short to call a flag. An advance would be a continuation of its move, but nothing to buy based on. Once the flag was fleshed out, the move yesterday (3/12) out of the formation to hit a new high was probably buyable, but definitely a cha-cha-cha play (certainly nothing to bet the ranch on). As it turns out today you had a nice follow-on move for short term traders. Still this is not what O'Neil calls a high tight flag. HTF's typically occur at the end of a 100% run from the base. They look just like ADVP, but they have covered more ground before the flag formation forms. This huge advance (100% more or less) followed by the tight flag formation is what makes HTF's so (potentially) powerful (nothing is 90% sure in this business AFAIK). So, now you have seen a nice tight flag formation (ADVP's was in about a 6% range) and you see what the move looks like to allow you to nibble (in case it is a fakeout and fails the next day). But, the day to buy was yesterday, not earlier when you were talking about it. Your instincts were correct and it was one to watch, but it did not complete the flag and then signal "buy me" until yesterday. Next time you will know what it looks like. Remember, you want a week or two (4-10 days) in the formation. 5 to 7 days is about ideal. A HTF will often be about 12%, which is still tight given the big run it has just completed. This HTF discussion is from memory - see HTMMS to get O'Neil's exact description of prior advance and depth of flag. Hope this helps. Ask questions if this doesn't make sense. Best Regards, Craig At 03:08 PM 3/12/99 -0500, you wrote: >If ADVP wasn't a high tight flag,I sure would like to see the >performance of a stock that is!!! To bad I lisened to the guy from >"growth stock anylyticals"he sounded like he knew what he was talking >about.Then again if not for him I wouldn't have anylized ADVP in the >first place.Live and learn! > Ari > - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Craig Griffin Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] ADVP Date: 12 Mar 1999 16:21:46 -0500 One other thing. The standard Canslim time to buy, when you could have done more than a nibble - was when it broke out of the base (cup w/handle). High point on the handle was about 38 1/2. So that is the buy point ala CS. Breakout day was 3/1/99 on huge volume. This also, BTW, gives you more confidence in the flag formation as you leave it - that gigantic volume spike on the 1st shows heavy buying pressure. Anyway, that is the most reliable buy point - 38 5/8 or better, but no higher than say 42 (+ about 10%). - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Craig Griffin Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] ADVP Date: 12 Mar 1999 16:24:05 -0500 I wrote, >ADVP did form a flag formation, but it was not a HTF. This is typically a >bullish formation. I would say the formation runs from 3/3 to 3/10. As I >remember the day you asked about ADVP was about 3/5. On that day it looked >like it was advancing, but the formation was at that time too short to call >a flag. An advance would be a continuation of its move, but nothing to buy >based on. Once the flag was fleshed out, the move yesterday (3/12) out of I meant 3/11, not 3/12 in the line above. >the formation to hit a new high was probably buyable, but definitely a >cha-cha-cha play (certainly nothing to bet the ranch on). As it turns out >today you had a nice follow-on move for short term traders. > - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Walter Stock Subject: [CANSLIM] Marder turns bullish on 'M' Date: 13 Mar 1999 01:40:32 -0500 Just found and read this article, although it was published back on Monday. Hadn't seen any other reference to it on our list. Although I usually find Marder's articles insightful, this one is particularly good. http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/current/marder.htx?source=blq/yhoo Walter Stock Oakville - ON, Canada - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: [CANSLIM] DGO New Highs Date: 13 Mar 1999 07:34:17 -0500 Another interesting week, total DG stocks hitting new highs rose 40% to 248, however the ones with RS/EPS of 80/80 or better only grew to 96 (30% gain). Still, nice to see some old friends back on top. Overall for the week, despite all the hoopla and excessive expectations of 10,000 being hit on Friday, the Dow only gained 1.4% for the week, NASDAQ slightly better despite the techs at +1.9%, Russell 2000 was flat. S&P100 and 500 in line with 1.5% and 1.4% gains, while VIX went up 2.7%. Breadth remained meager, and despite WON's lack of concern, doesn't show a great mkt for CANSLIM stocks. While new highs/lows improved, it's still pretty ugly. Here's the list. As always, this is just a "window shopping" list, it's up to each member to do your homework and decide which, if any, are actually worth buying: SEBL, FTEN, EL, ZION, ELN, UTX, AEOS, VMC, ASO, EMC, BBHF, TR, CCRD, FON, HDI, TSFW, TIF, LEVL, JNJ, GPS, EBAY, DY, PFE, CAO, MMC, IBI, ESRX, RHT, POS, PPDI, HTT, CLFY, ORBKF, ALSI, TMPW, ASTE, UNPH, DH, OSI, MTNT, KSS, RFMD, TAGS, AVS, SBUX, TOM, PEGS, CPRT, CLE, LOW, EXPD, WAT, COST, TJX, BMET, ZLC, HMC, QCOM, ANSR, GICOF, OCLI, TCAT, SDLI, RGIS, SPLS, COMR, BSYS, MDS, FM, ADVP, HD, NEON, SLR, STT, MTP, AMGN, ABDR, OMC, ISCA, ARMHY, MWD, EAGL, SCH, FMY, CMSX, SGP, WCOM, NW, WMT, SNE, PVN, MRK, GDT, AGN, AXP, GE. Happy Hunting Tom W stkguru@netside.net ICQ # 5568838 - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Peter Newell" Subject: [CANSLIM] Daily Graphs - What information is in the product index? Date: 13 Mar 1999 10:39:21 -0800 Could someone who gets dailygraphs tell me if the "SMA" info is available thru daily graphs or what is in the product index, or send me a sample. Thanks, Peter - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Oli" Subject: [CANSLIM] Performance Bench Marks Date: 13 Mar 1999 16:26:41 -0500 Hi there. Are all my efforts to manage my own money worth it? How would I have performed if, instead of buying and selling stocks when I did, I had bought &sold the S&P index ? These are questions I have been asking myself, especially in the light of the underperformance of small caps. In any case, I am wondering how members benchmark themselves. If one had a fixed account (i.e. did not make any regular cash contributions to it) then one way would be to assume that one invested all the money in the S&P index at the beginning of the period of interest and evaluate the performance at the end of the period, assuming that no selling had taken place. This is probably what I would do if I chose to invest in an index, as opposed to sell when I thought the market was in trouble and then buy back later. The issue becomes more complicated if one (like I do) makes regular cash contributions to the account. Then the S&P index bench mark performance becomes a weigthed performance of the index from the dates of cash contributions to the end of the period. So what do you guys do to evaluate your performance? Is there software out there that allows one to compare ones portfolio vs the S&P without resorting to using spreasheets? I have to wonder, given how small caps have underperformed for a long time and the fact that CANSLIM focuses on smaller cap stocks, what percentage of members would have performed better by just bying the S&P and holding. I certainly would have. Thanks, Oli - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Oli" Subject: [CANSLIM] EPS & Sales Acceleration without calculations... Date: 13 Mar 1999 16:34:47 -0500 Hi members. I am not aware of any web site that displays the EPS (or sales) growth in % terms for the most recent quarters for a given company. There are certainly plenty of web sites out there that show the EPS and sales numbers, but these do not allow you do evaluate the accelaration or deacceleration quickly. Does anybody know of a free web site that displays this into ? Thanks, Oli. - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: musicant@autobahn.org (Dan Musicant) Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Marder turns bullish on 'M' -- NOT! Date: 13 Mar 1999 22:54:17 GMT On Sat, 13 Mar 1999 01:40:32 -0500, you wrote: :Just found and read this article, although it was published :back on Monday. Hadn't seen any other reference to it :on our list. : :Although I usually find Marder's articles insightful, :this one is particularly good. : :http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/current/marder.htx?source=3Dblq/yhoo : :Walter Stock :Oakville - ON, Canada I liked this article a lot. This guy clearly knows what he's talking about. The subject line here belies the content, though. This article is not about "M". What it is about is a narrow group of outperformers in a dangerous market, and nothing else. What he's saying is that the canny speculator who knows how to cut his losses can make money here. There is nothing in the article to substantiate *bullish "M"*. Dan - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Tim Fisher Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Performance Bench Marks Date: 13 Mar 1999 16:12:55 -0800 I use Quicken to track my performance. You have several options to track with this software, the simplest of which is to let it calculate your annualized return on investment. Or make a portfolio of the major indexes, "buy" a share of each on the date you want to start tracking, then compare the performance of your real portfolio to the index portfolio. BTW my ROI on small caps since 6/97 (which includes many very big winners & a few whopping "gap down" losers) is -6%; my performance on large caps is +39%. I have 84% large caps right now % 11% cash which leaves 5% for small caps (one stock). My annualized ROI over this period is +20% vs. +53% for the S&P. At 04:26 PM 3/13/99 -0500, you wrote: >Hi there. >Are all my efforts to manage my own money worth it? How would I have >performed >if, instead of buying and selling stocks when I did, I had bought &sold >the S&P index ? >These are questions I have been asking myself, especially in the light of >the underperformance >of small caps. In any case, I am wondering how members benchmark >themselves. >If one had a fixed account (i.e. did not make any regular cash contributions >to it) then >one way would be to assume that one invested all the money in the S&P index >at >the beginning of the period of interest and evaluate the performance at the >end of >the period, assuming that no selling had taken place. This is probably what >I >would do if I chose to invest in an index, as opposed >to sell when I thought the market was in trouble and then buy back later. >The issue becomes more complicated >if one (like I do) makes regular cash contributions to the account. Then >the S&P index bench >mark performance becomes a weigthed performance of the index from the dates >of cash >contributions to the end of the period. > >So what do you guys do to evaluate your performance? >Is there software out there that allows one to compare ones portfolio vs the >S&P >without resorting to using spreasheets? > >I have to wonder, given how small caps have underperformed for a long time >and the fact >that CANSLIM focuses on smaller cap stocks, what percentage of members >would have performed better by just bying the S&P and holding. I certainly >would have. > >Thanks, >Oli > Tim Fisher, 1995 President, Pacific Fishery Biologists Ore-ROCK-On Rockhounding Web Site PFB Information mailto:tim@OreRockOn.com WWW http://OreRockOn.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: TGannon437@aol.com Subject: [CANSLIM] EXPD Date: 13 Mar 1999 20:17:51 EST Hi all..new to this group..and to canslim. I bought the breakout from the handle of a cup and handle formation in the stock EXPD. Am I correct in calling this a canslim stock? Looks like it to me, but like I said, I am kinda new to this canslim. Thanks in advance for your comments. I have learned alot from all your posts. tgannon - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Johan Van Houtven Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Performance Bench Marks Date: 14 Mar 1999 10:16:57 +0100 Oli, Great questions. I believe it is very important for an investor to ask themselves these questions. I.e. "How am I performing?" and "Compared to what." "If I underperform compared to my goal, what will I do?" And "Can I make more money and/or have more fun if I use the time I put in to do something else?" This also depends on the capital one currently has. If you have for example $1K (1K = 1000). Then your chances of making big money quickly (this year) are extremely limited of course. Even if you make 500% ,you will only have made $5000. And the chances that you can do this every year are probably close to zero (If you can, by all means continue to do this, since you will have $3.125.000 after 5 years.) If one doesn't have the critical capital one would like to invest, one should think about how to get the capital as quickly as possible. I.e. by working to acquire it. I compare my performance to the indexes that I watch on a daily basis: Dow, Nasdaq, S&P500, S&P100, Nasdaq 100, Russell 2000, Nyse and a few sector indexes. I've set this goal for myself: (Remember that I'm a newbie, compared to some of the experienced investors here, as I started investing 3 years en 2 months ago .) Considering the time I put in I must outperform the Dow, Nasdaq, S&P500 on a yearly basis. If I do not outperform these indexes, I will do whatever I deem necessary at that point. Like put my money into funds. It is my goal to at least make 50% per year on average. This is feasible IMHO since if we have 2 to 3 rallies per year and if one can make 20% in every rally one would make (1.2x1.2= 1.44) 44% to (1.2x1.2x1.2= 1.728) 73%. (Last year I made 69% net.) 'Hope this helps a bit. At 04:26 PM 13-03-99 -0500, you wrote: >Hi there. >Are all my efforts to manage my own money worth it? How would I have >performed >if, instead of buying and selling stocks when I did, I had bought &sold >the S&P index ? >These are questions I have been asking myself, especially in the light of >the underperformance >of small caps. In any case, I am wondering how members benchmark >themselves. >If one had a fixed account (i.e. did not make any regular cash contributions >to it) then >one way would be to assume that one invested all the money in the S&P index >at >the beginning of the period of interest and evaluate the performance at the >end of >the period, assuming that no selling had taken place. This is probably what >I >would do if I chose to invest in an index, as opposed >to sell when I thought the market was in trouble and then buy back later. >The issue becomes more complicated >if one (like I do) makes regular cash contributions to the account. Then >the S&P index bench >mark performance becomes a weigthed performance of the index from the dates >of cash >contributions to the end of the period. > >So what do you guys do to evaluate your performance? >Is there software out there that allows one to compare ones portfolio vs the >S&P >without resorting to using spreasheets? > >I have to wonder, given how small caps have underperformed for a long time >and the fact >that CANSLIM focuses on smaller cap stocks, what percentage of members >would have performed better by just bying the S&P and holding. I certainly >would have. > >Thanks, >Oli > > >- > > Johan - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Daily Graphs - What information is in the product index? Date: 14 Mar 1999 08:31:35 -0500 Hi Peter, The charts in DG and DGO show the 50 and 200 dma, calculated as a SMA. They also show the RS line so you can see how it's trending. The Reports available on DGO all include different data elements, including SMR. The Index, for example, shows the symbol, name, exchange, EPS, RS, SMR, A/D, price, GRS (as a percentile not a letter), industry group name, and the page the stock is found on. Tom W stkguru@netside.net ICQ # 5568838 -----Original Message----- product index? Could someone who gets dailygraphs tell me if the "SMA" info is available thru daily graphs or what is in the product index, or send me a sample. Thanks, Peter - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Performance Bench Marks Date: 14 Mar 1999 08:50:49 -0500 Hi Oli, Both my accounts are essentially fixed (IRA, margin acct) with the only predictable change coming from the interest charged or earned on debit/credit balances. In 1998 all my investments were small cap exclusively, and my net was 76%. In early 1999, I was up another 14% by mid January, but now am in the negative column since the mkt resumed being a narrow, big cap mkt. Before the bull mkt ended in 1998, I was up over 300% (net profit of over 200%), but unfortunately lost my focus due workload hours and a bout of depression at a critical point, thus the 76% looks good, but is not even a "half full" glass. I measure my performance against the R2000 index primarily, but look at all major indexes as well. Since I don't make regular contributions, I simply measure the 12/31 portfolio value against the 1/1 value. In 1998 I took some money out of my margin acct to exercise my employee stock options, but don't attempt to calculate the effect on this other than to add back in this money to the ending value. In my IRA, I made a contribution in Dec, and again simply adjust this money out as it remained in cash thru the end of the year. Tom W stkguru@netside.net ICQ # 5568838 -----Original Message----- Hi there. Are all my efforts to manage my own money worth it? How would I have performed if, instead of buying and selling stocks when I did, I had bought &sold the S&P index ? These are questions I have been asking myself, especially in the light of the underperformance of small caps. In any case, I am wondering how members benchmark themselves. If one had a fixed account (i.e. did not make any regular cash contributions to it) then one way would be to assume that one invested all the money in the S&P index at the beginning of the period of interest and evaluate the performance at the end of the period, assuming that no selling had taken place. This is probably what I would do if I chose to invest in an index, as opposed to sell when I thought the market was in trouble and then buy back later. The issue becomes more complicated if one (like I do) makes regular cash contributions to the account. Then the S&P index bench mark performance becomes a weigthed performance of the index from the dates of cash contributions to the end of the period. So what do you guys do to evaluate your performance? Is there software out there that allows one to compare ones portfolio vs the S&P without resorting to using spreasheets? I have to wonder, given how small caps have underperformed for a long time and the fact that CANSLIM focuses on smaller cap stocks, what percentage of members would have performed better by just bying the S&P and holding. I certainly would have. Thanks, Oli - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] EXPD Date: 14 Mar 1999 09:02:10 -0500 TG, Expeditors certainly meets some of the CANSLIM criteria with an RS and EPS of 91, ROE of 25%, A/D of B and Timeliness of A. On the other hand, it has already made a steady move up, and would not be a buy here. The most recent and arguable (since not confirmed by volume) buy point was at the end of Feb. I also note mutual funds already own 36% of the float, while mngmt only owns 9% of the issue. With a mkt cap of $1.25 billion, it doesn't fit the "historical" CANSLIM model, but does seem to fit the more modern CS big cap liquidity concept. The most recent volume spike did not seem to move the stock price, and the past two days of heavier than avg vol appear to have eroded the price. First support would appear to be in the 45-47 range if it goes into a profit taking consolidation. GRS is 77, however it is #1 in the group Transportation Services. Tom W stkguru@netside.net ICQ # 5568838 -----Original Message----- Hi all..new to this group..and to canslim. I bought the breakout from the handle of a cup and handle formation in the stock EXPD. Am I correct in calling this a canslim stock? Looks like it to me, but like I said, I am kinda new to this canslim. Thanks in advance for your comments. I have learned alot from all your posts. tgannon - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Frank V. Wolynski" Subject: [CANSLIM] Market Forcasts - Abby Cohen Date: 14 Mar 1999 11:05:38 -0500 Interesting Survey results, including a revisement from Abbey Cohen. http://nt.excite.com/news/r/990314/06/business-stocks Regards, Frank Wolynski - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Connie Mack Rea Subject: [CANSLIM] Oils, drillers, and servicers and a stochastic indicator. [Connie Mack] Date: 14 Mar 1999 11:39:24 -0500 I mentioned the oils, drillers, and servicers in mid-February. I said that an entry in most of the stocks was a relatively safe entry. I put a few of my faculty group in some of the stocks though I bought none myself because I was trading MU, DELL, and NOVL almost exclusively. [MU and DELL, though I have small safe positions in each, are looking less and less inviting. For me, MU and DELL are day trades and nothing more. NOVL still looks okay to hold or trade.] Others in my group are now pressing me for an okay to buy more. I have assigned them a "paper for class." [Jesus, I love to give professors homework.] Really what I assigned them was a thorough reading of this site: http://osxstocks.com/Stocks/glbl1.htm It has good comment and a stochastics indicator that I use for buys in non-oil stocks. I have come to prefer it to BigChart's. This is a great little site. Familiarize yourself with everything on it. Connie Mack - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: FBNAirPlt@aol.com Subject: [CANSLIM] Acc/Dis Numbers Date: 14 Mar 1999 20:46:06 EST Here are the latest Acc/Dis numbers Date A B C D E AB/A:E %E 3/1/99 882 2414 1404 1346 574 50% 9% 3/2/99 855 2389 1450 1330 573 49% 9% 3/3/99 848 2394 1421 1374 564 49% 9% 3/4/99 831 2416 1417 1332 574 49% 9% 3/5/99 811 2384 1428 1354 599 49% 9% 3/8/99 820 2437 1384 1356 578 50% 9% 3/9/99 865 2508 1377 1299 538 51% 8% 3/10/99 898 2472 1383 1252 567 51% 9% 3/11/99 890 2477 1350 1255 593 51% 9% 3/12/99 945 2472 1344 1208 600 52% 9% 3/15/99 977 2467 1359 1179 596 52% 9% Spreadsheet version: Date,A,B,C,D,E,AB/A:E,%E 3/1/99,882,2414,1404,1346,574,50%,9% 3/2/99,855,2389,1450,1330,573,49%,9% 3/3/99,848,2394,1421,1374,564,49%,9% 3/4/99,831,2416,1417,1332,574,49%,9% 3/5/99,811,2384,1428,1354,599,49%,9% 3/8/99,820,2437,1384,1356,578,50%,9% 3/9/99,865,2508,1377,1299,538,51%,8% 3/10/99,898,2472,1383,1252,567,51%,9% 3/11/99,890,2477,1350,1255,593,51%,9% 3/12/99,945,2472,1344,1208,600,52%,9% 3/15/99,977,2467,1359,1179,596,52%,9% Robert - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: DntCookMch@aol.com Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Oils, drillers, and servicers and a stochastic indicator. [Conn... Date: 14 Mar 1999 22:40:19 EST In a message dated 3/14/99 10:41:21 AM Central Standard Time, rea1@ithink.net writes: << http://osxstocks.com/Stocks/glbl1.htm >> - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com (Jeff Salisbury) Subject: [CANSLIM] Changing your canslim subscription Date: 15 Mar 1999 08:00:02 -0700 This is a monthly posting to the CANLSLIM group. Frequently, people sign up for the canslim list and then are overwhelmed by the volume of the email. There are two remedies for this problem: 1) You can leave our group, or 2) you can switch to the digest version which "conglomerates" many canslim messages into one large message. To change your configuration, email a message to: majordomo@xmission.com The remove yourself from the canslim list, write in the body of the email: unsubscribe canslim To add yourself to the digest version of the canslim list, write in the body of the email: subscribe canslim-digest For general help with majordomo commands, write in the body of the email: help If you need further clarification, write me directly at: canslim-owner@lists.xmission.com Best Regards, Jeff Salisbury - CANSLIM list admin / owner - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Ronald J. Russell, Jr." Subject: [CANSLIM] Weekly Stock List - Condensed Version - March 12, 1999 Date: 14 Mar 1999 22:42:04 -0500 I forgot to post this last week - my apologies. This list contains all stocks in the Daily Graphs universe meeting the following criteria: EPS > 69 RS > 84 GRS > 59 A/D = "A" or "B" CLOSE > 10.00 30 Day ADV > 75,000 We dropped a few to 203 this week. Trade well, Ron Symbol EPS RS GRS ERG A/D Close 30 ADV ABDR 98 91 84 273 A $ 73.000 174,637 ACAI 96 87 67 250 A $ 32.000 235,663 ADCT 96 94 89 279 A $ 42.880 1,869,507 ADVP 98 97 72 267 A $ 54.880 163,970 AEOS 99 96 89 284 A $ 70.130 412,160 AGN 81 96 90 267 B $ 93.130 358,967 AGPH 72 93 92 257 A $ 58.500 714,050 AHAA 72 94 93 259 A $ 17.440 296,128 ALNT 77 91 75 243 A $ 40.000 110,237 ALSI 99 97 85 281 A $ 38.380 128,243 ALTR 89 91 93 273 A $ 59.250 2,971,180 AMGN 93 97 92 282 A $ 75.000 4,868,973 ANF 99 94 89 282 A $ 81.310 678,473 AOL 77 99 99 275 A $ 96.130 20,834,784 APPB 92 85 81 258 A $ 26.560 447,250 ARX 86 85 73 244 B $ 13.500 134,340 ASML 77 93 97 267 A $ 41.500 1,529,470 ASND 97 94 93 284 A $ 78.190 4,624,404 AT 79 86 75 240 A $ 59.000 588,960 ATI 91 95 91 277 A $ 94.000 2,353,493 AVP 70 87 69 226 B $ 46.630 1,174,337 AVS 97 88 63 248 B $ 45.500 139,887 AVTC 90 88 82 260 A $ 27.880 147,237 AXNT 80 92 94 266 A $ 34.560 314,367 AXP 80 89 90 259 A $ 126.250 1,780,943 BAX 73 86 90 249 A $ 75.380 828,580 BBBY 96 85 70 251 A $ 31.750 1,376,197 BBY 76 98 96 270 B $ 100.250 1,428,583 BID 76 88 70 234 A $ 29.250 315,863 BMET 85 85 66 236 A $ 40.810 784,747 BOL 71 89 64 224 B $ 66.130 279,483 BSYS 88 90 78 256 A $ 57.880 136,403 BUD 74 90 65 229 B $ 76.500 1,515,207 BVF 90 85 68 243 A $ 40.940 84,157 BXM 81 95 92 268 A $ 68.750 219,093 CBXC 97 91 82 270 A $ 25.250 109,700 CCL 92 89 79 260 A $ 45.440 944,043 CHCS 86 95 89 270 A $ 24.000 82,930 CHKP 98 90 94 282 A $ 41.380 664,167 CLE 88 91 84 263 A $ 27.250 474,813 CLFY 97 97 82 276 B $ 29.310 406,100 CLX 84 86 65 235 A $ 125.500 544,750 CMB 71 92 83 246 B $ 88.000 4,165,784 CMED 99 92 66 257 A $ 12.810 128,817 CMGI 77 99 98 274 A $ 164.000 3,922,616 CMSX 93 93 78 264 A $ 27.880 313,180 CMVT 97 93 89 279 A $ 80.500 821,503 CNMD 92 85 64 241 A $ 29.750 99,573 COF 88 91 90 269 A $ 134.630 472,227 COMR 97 90 67 254 A $ 40.500 433,563 COST 85 92 88 265 B $ 88.560 2,112,343 CPRT 94 96 84 274 B $ 19.380 218,167 CREE 99 95 93 287 A $ 34.250 317,917 CSCO 96 95 93 284 A $ 103.250 17,625,950 CSN 82 94 75 251 B $ 20.000 561,953 CTAS 91 87 63 241 A $ 69.560 357,557 CTL 92 89 91 272 A $ 68.500 379,267 CTXS 95 87 82 264 A $ 79.560 1,100,140 DDDDF 99 96 82 277 A $ 51.690 122,437 DELL 99 95 81 275 A $ 42.190 66,484,724 DH 88 93 88 269 B $ 69.810 1,623,440 EAT 81 85 81 247 B $ 27.630 416,437 ECL 83 87 65 235 A $ 39.940 272,847 EFII 83 91 82 256 A $ 34.630 717,677 EL 87 91 69 247 B $ 92.630 283,230 ELN 90 90 68 248 A $ 83.500 802,547 EMC 96 97 86 279 A $ 112.250 4,622,773 ESRX 96 95 78 269 A $ 77.750 169,220 EUSA 89 92 86 267 A $ 29.440 132,137 EXPD 91 91 77 259 B $ 51.500 127,820 FDC 73 92 90 255 B $ 41.380 1,742,173 FLEX 99 97 93 289 A $ 43.380 1,233,927 FM 97 92 81 270 A $ 26.000 172,307 FON 80 87 91 258 B $ 88.690 980,003 FOSL 91 93 67 251 A $ 33.000 109,077 FS 70 94 70 234 A $ 41.750 80,673 GDT 91 95 90 276 A $ 68.190 1,409,640 GENZ 90 93 92 275 B $ 51.500 1,260,897 GEOC 84 97 82 263 A $ 42.560 187,840 GICOF 98 94 91 283 A $ 13.500 83,147 GILTF 97 93 89 279 A $ 60.250 310,090 GLC 94 86 74 254 A $ 49.190 175,660 GNSS 84 97 93 274 A $ 27.130 374,213 GPS 96 94 89 279 A $ 66.500 1,416,140 GTW 95 91 81 267 A $ 67.500 2,517,427 GUC 80 89 89 258 A $ 65.000 399,260 HD 95 93 75 263 A $ 65.250 3,485,537 HDI 94 94 74 262 A $ 57.750 565,927 HH 95 91 72 258 B $ 15.940 116,073 HLYW 76 87 70 233 B $ 20.560 650,173 IBI 86 95 89 270 A $ 43.690 766,547 IBM 90 89 81 260 B $ 178.000 5,254,060 INSS 99 94 78 271 A $ 63.500 312,497 INTC 85 89 93 267 A $ 118.250 20,575,194 IONA 98 86 82 266 A $ 37.750 132,107 IPG 92 86 80 258 A $ 76.130 336,077 ISCA 86 93 79 258 A $ 49.750 93,340 JAKK 99 96 64 259 A $ 17.060 167,407 JWG 74 92 95 261 A $ 11.500 86,903 KIDE 77 99 67 243 B $ 23.130 122,083 KSWS 77 99 87 263 B $ 64.560 123,283 LEVL 88 96 93 277 B $ 46.750 2,340,730 LGTO 99 91 82 272 A $ 56.630 1,230,047 LLTC 83 89 93 265 A $ 45.750 2,038,993 LLY 92 86 68 246 A $ 94.880 2,235,557 LOW 93 94 75 262 B $ 64.880 1,741,080 LSON 94 85 84 263 A $ 58.630 157,973 LU 95 88 89 272 A $ 103.250 7,207,824 LUV 91 92 67 250 B $ 31.190 1,437,983 LXK 97 90 82 269 A $ 86.380 602,643 MCD 76 91 81 248 A $ 43.500 4,453,140 MCRL 96 91 93 280 A $ 51.250 178,837 MEDQ 97 85 84 266 B $ 32.250 239,753 MERQ 73 96 82 251 A $ 36.690 489,103 MHP 81 88 77 246 B $ 57.060 595,773 MNMD 98 93 90 281 A $ 91.750 141,473 MOBI 95 85 82 262 B $ 15.000 86,690 MSFT 99 93 95 287 A $ 160.190 19,228,856 MSPG 80 99 99 278 B $ 95.690 1,039,743 MWD 80 93 76 249 A $ 101.130 2,362,504 MXIM 89 87 93 269 A $ 45.250 1,596,633 NCOG 99 91 84 274 A $ 37.250 188,663 NEON 80 99 82 261 B $ 70.630 637,080 NLCS 85 86 82 253 B $ 33.380 151,827 NOVL 77 96 93 266 B $ 24.130 7,267,946 NPCI 75 89 81 245 B $ 15.500 134,180 NSOL 84 99 98 281 A $ 222.000 1,114,497 NTAP 98 96 86 280 A $ 41.560 906,233 OCLI 88 98 71 257 B $ 43.000 115,173 OMC 91 91 80 262 A $ 69.630 603,537 ORBKF 90 91 97 278 A $ 49.880 174,203 ORCL 97 91 82 270 A $ 28.560 19,695,146 OSI 98 89 80 267 B $ 30.000 464,250 OSSI 90 91 81 262 A $ 32.000 1,479,067 OSTE 73 96 90 259 A $ 47.500 159,833 PEGS 80 96 84 260 B $ 42.380 185,740 PFE 90 88 68 246 A $ 140.380 2,769,200 PHCC 98 97 78 273 B $ 46.500 102,277 PKN 77 85 71 233 B $ 94.810 302,393 PLCE 99 98 89 286 A $ 28.000 179,940 PLT 95 86 89 270 A $ 66.130 157,483 POS 88 93 80 261 A $ 76.000 108,357 POWI 72 95 73 240 B $ 21.500 320,683 PPDI 95 92 72 259 B $ 35.500 306,050 PRGS 78 86 82 246 A $ 31.250 103,877 PROG 85 91 88 264 B $ 11.750 103,063 PSUN 93 94 89 276 A $ 31.500 653,010 PVN 98 98 90 286 A $ 114.440 909,457 PVSW 80 88 82 250 A $ 16.690 86,717 QLGC 98 97 93 288 A $ 56.880 380,343 RESM 98 94 90 282 A $ 37.690 307,217 RFMD 80 99 96 275 A $ 85.310 330,170 RGIS 80 89 70 239 B $ 27.940 143,465 RMDY 71 85 82 238 B $ 16.000 468,197 RTRSY 75 94 84 253 A $ 92.630 290,640 SANM 97 93 93 283 A $ 59.810 921,893 SAPE 99 92 82 273 A $ 63.380 219,013 SBUX 96 90 81 267 A $ 60.060 1,177,320 SCH 94 99 95 288 A $ 84.000 1,891,363 SEBL 99 96 82 277 A $ 49.130 998,753 SFP 99 98 62 259 A $ 33.000 138,720 SKYW 86 87 67 240 A $ 31.190 171,720 SLR 94 97 96 287 A $ 49.880 2,050,673 SNS 94 88 63 245 A $ 67.940 809,740 SONC 88 86 81 255 A $ 25.630 92,537 SORC 75 93 84 252 A $ 10.500 78,167 SPNSF 76 93 82 251 A $ 10.750 335,367 SUNW 93 96 81 270 A $ 103.690 8,463,641 SWFT 93 88 76 257 A $ 30.000 136,300 SWS 76 91 95 262 A $ 28.000 206,873 SYK 88 86 66 240 A $ 52.630 327,677 SYKE 99 93 84 276 A $ 30.750 257,030 T 83 86 91 260 B $ 81.440 8,882,871 TAGS 97 97 74 268 A $ 40.810 133,610 TAN 74 89 60 223 B $ 58.880 796,557 TCAT 84 94 94 272 A $ 45.250 298,083 TECH 81 94 92 267 A $ 26.940 76,513 TIF 90 94 84 268 A $ 68.750 371,007 TJX 93 89 89 271 B $ 32.630 1,215,120 TLAB 98 94 89 281 A $ 90.690 2,669,600 TMPW 89 98 80 267 B $ 64.060 526,920 TOM 97 87 74 258 A $ 72.000 369,240 TRK 88 91 79 258 B $ 33.750 168,900 TVGIA 96 93 83 272 A $ 30.440 234,623 UNPH 96 97 89 282 A $ 99.880 948,930 UTX 91 90 63 244 B $ 127.500 808,773 VISX 77 99 97 273 A $ 95.750 667,643 VOD 96 92 91 279 A $ 185.560 521,407 VRTS 99 96 82 277 A $ 79.440 666,283 VTSS 97 92 93 282 A $ 46.750 1,315,253 WAT 98 94 68 260 A $ 104.250 157,780 WCOM 82 95 91 268 B $ 85.940 11,411,014 WHIT 99 87 78 264 A $ 27.630 363,680 WIZTF 89 95 82 266 A $ 17.880 98,650 WMT 87 93 88 268 B $ 96.380 3,635,373 WSM 92 86 88 266 A $ 36.440 159,297 XIRC 77 96 93 266 A $ 35.500 318,907 XLNX 79 95 93 267 A $ 37.500 4,469,806 XLSW 97 85 89 271 A $ 27.380 269,267 XOMD 97 95 66 258 B $ 37.130 92,790 XYLN 75 96 93 264 A $ 36.310 2,833,237 YHOO 84 99 99 282 A $ 176.000 9,013,871 ZQK 96 96 74 266 A $ 38.880 143,757 - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: musicant@autobahn.org (Dan Musicant) Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Performance Bench Marks Date: 15 Mar 1999 03:57:22 GMT Hi Oli, Is it worth it? Ah, that's a tough question. I started a bit over two years ago. Before that I had held a couple of stocks for long spells and had a good performing fund for nearly a year at one point, but did not really study equity investments, although I harbored an intention to do so. Eventually, I got into it. The catalyst was a friend who took me to see WON speak locally. I was very impressed and bought HTMMIS. This was fall of 1996. I started actively investing 2/7/97. Unbeknownst to me, a market top had occurred on 1/24/97, which I found out later reading more from WON, in one of his numerous online interviews, I believe. Well, I got in at a bad point, investing long after the market had topped, and I quickly (5 to 6 weeks) lost half my money. I generally established one position at a time and sold it when I thought it appropriate. I made good progress later in the year with the summer rally, and nearly made back my losses, but the correction of October 1997 and the subsequent 2 months brought me back to loss of almost 1/2 of my original equity. Of course, I was wondering too what I was doing wasting my time and money when most any fund would do better. However, I did not give up. In 1998, I had a see saw year. Sometimes I got on a roll and would have a period where I did rather well and made virtually no mistakes. However, in those periods I didn't hit big winners. No doubling, that sort of thing. I got faked out pretty badly in October and was caught holding short positions when the rate cuts were made and I suffered losses and almost lost all my winnings for the year. However, I caught some of the updraft on the Fall rally, though nothing like what was possible. Still, I made out very well in December and wound up with a 209% gain for the year. I was finally in the black, and a monkey was off my back. I was happy to just sit in cash for a while and contemplate things.=20 I've made money long and short, but lately have lost most of my gains for 1999 with two short positions that didn't act as I'd hoped. However, I'm exercising more discipline than I did in 1997 and 1998, when I lost control at least a couple of times and took up to 25% losses on large positions.=20 I believe that 1999 will be a volatile year. I do not expect things to settle down for at least 18 months. The last 6 to 9 months have been pretty wild. Go to www.bigcharts.com and plot the Nasdaq Composite (symbol COMP) for 5 years and you will see that the last 9 months are a wild anomoly compared to the previous 4 years. Before the rate cuts in October, the correction was the most severe in that 5 year period by far. The rise since then is absolutely spectacular and there has been nothing like it in the last 5 years. Since the apex, we have had a slight retracement and a double bottom, and now approach 10,000 on the DOW and will probably push through it, at least temporarily.=20 The market breadth is awful. A well known bear (James Stack, is that his name) on PBS's Nightly Business Report noted last week that only 3% of stocks in the S&P have accounted for over 60% of the rise in that index! The Russell 2000, hasn't participated in the gains of 1998 and 1999. I believe it hit 460 or so last April and is now around 400. CANSLIM as such is not an effective strategy, if held to strictly in this market. Certainly, *S*mall is no winning criteria. To quote an explanation I have of CANSLIM: ---- S- Shares outstanding. Smaller float is said to be better for price advance, though recent history argues with this.=20 ---- Yes, recent history argues with this convincingly. CANSLIM will reemerge at some point, I suppose, but there is no arguing that the greatest gains have been garnered mostly by stocks which fail CANSLIM criteria in the recent market. The Internet sector has many big winners that have no earnings at all to date. WON developed CANSLIM by studying the characteristics of the biggest stock market winners over a long period of time. However, the big winners of late fail his criteria for the most part. It is time to adjust one's tactics. I think the Y2K issue is going to keep people nervous for another year, whatever else is going on in world and domestic economies. I would like to be a long term investor in stocks that I believe will do well over the long haul. If I pick my stocks well, this would be very profitable and save me a lot of time trying to trade and time the markets and read the trends. However, until the Y2K issue is behind us, I will be afraid to do so. And given present look of the long term chart of the COMP index, I can't feel comfortable with long term investments. However, so far, I haven't been consistently been able to time the market. Still, I'm in the black and I feel better about things. CANSLIM focuses on smaller cap issues, as you said. But I bet if you asked WON what stocks he's been trading you would find that they aren't small caps! I've been hearing predictions that the small caps will have their turn and lead the next upcycle, but I'm not holding my breath. I've seen these predictions fail for quite some time now, and have no expectations. It may not happen for the next year or two. Dan - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "James Adams" Subject: [CANSLIM] Recent Screen Date: 15 Mar 1999 12:22:24 -0500 I ran a preliminary screen at the MS Investor Site with the following criteria: Market Cap <=300,000,000 Earnings Est increased in last qtr RS increasing = true now 3 month RS >= 80 EPS Qtr vs Qtr >=20% Crossed Above 50dma in last month Results: LNCC: float 5,184,500 CGR: float 10,183,000 BIAC: float 7,728,000 GID: float 26,839,00 LTXX: float 35,477,00 Any comments about the criteria, results and added info are welcome. James Adams jadams@ntr.net jimadams@may-uky.campus.mci.net (until 2/15/99) Maysville, KY USA James Adams jadams@ntr.net jimadams@may-uky.campus.mci.net (until 2/15/99) Maysville, KY USA - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Ronald J. Russell, Jr." Subject: [CANSLIM] Download-able Earnings and Sales Data Date: 15 Mar 1999 21:11:25 -0500 I am looking for a downloadable source of earnings data to add to my "Weekly Stock List" spreadsheet. Ideally the data would be in the format that DGO provides - period over period actual and percentage change as well as annual earnings growth. Any suggestions would be most appreciated. Ron - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "James Adams" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Download-able Earnings and Sales Data Date: 15 Mar 1999 22:19:44 -0500 Ron wrote: >I am looking for a downloadable source of earnings data to add to my "Weekly >Stock List" spreadsheet. Ideally the data would be in the format that DGO >provides - period over period actual and percentage change as well as annual >earnings growth. Any suggestions would be most appreciated. Ron, the MS Investor Site has this info, however you have to subscribe for 9.95 per month. However, there is a 30day free trial you might want to try. James Adams jadams@ntr.net jimadams@may-uky.campus.mci.net (until 2/15/99) Maysville, KY USA - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Recent Screen Date: 15 Mar 1999 22:59:23 -0500 Hi Jim, I have not studied your criteria sufficiently to spot the flaw, but of the five none are remotely CANSLIM according to the RS/EPS of 80/80 or better. Several have RS down in the 20s and 30s, and only LTXX beats the 80 level, but lacks earnings (EPS at 49). I do find it interesting that with a market cap of $300 million, you only got five candidates, and they are all small caps. I suspect that your "earnings est increased in last qtr" criteria may be throwing you off, but haven't backtested it yet. I know that most of my small caps would fare better than your list, but few if any of them get quarterly updates on earnings estimates. Tom W stkguru@netside.net ICQ # 5568838 -----Original Message----- I ran a preliminary screen at the MS Investor Site with the following criteria: Market Cap <=300,000,000 Earnings Est increased in last qtr RS increasing = true now 3 month RS >= 80 EPS Qtr vs Qtr >=20% Crossed Above 50dma in last month Results: LNCC: float 5,184,500 CGR: float 10,183,000 BIAC: float 7,728,000 GID: float 26,839,00 LTXX: float 35,477,00 Any comments about the criteria, results and added info are welcome. James Adams jadams@ntr.net jimadams@may-uky.campus.mci.net (until 2/15/99) Maysville, KY USA James Adams jadams@ntr.net jimadams@may-uky.campus.mci.net (until 2/15/99) Maysville, KY USA - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "James Adams" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Recent Screen Date: 16 Mar 1999 08:15:37 -0500 Tom Worley wrote: >I have not studied your criteria sufficiently to spot the >flaw, but of the five none are remotely CANSLIM according to >the RS/EPS of 80/80 or better. The first flaw I see, is that the RS & EPS numbers of MSInvestor are not the same as IBD. I need to find out the differences and how to construct a screen that will hopefully show the same. On the other hand I could renew my subscription to IBD. James Adams jadams@ntr.net jimadams@may-uky.campus.mci.net (until 2/15/99) Maysville, KY USA - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "James Adams" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Recent Screen -Followup Date: 16 Mar 1999 08:56:36 -0500 Tom and others overhearing this conversation, The RS for MSINV is the same as IBD I believe: "The figure is obtained by calculating the percent price change of a stock over a particular time period and ranking it against all other stocks on a scale of 1 to 100, with 100 being best." I believe that my numbers were skewed because I screened for 3 mo RS rather than the longer time period of IBD. Please correct me if I'm wrong. MSINV also has a screening criteria-Wells Wilder" RS Index. Are you familiar with it? As to CANSLIM here are the criteria choices I have available and I would appreciate some feedback from you and the group as to which would be most valuable in each area: CA: EPS YTD/YTD; QTR/QTR; YR/YR. QTR Earnings growth above/below 5 Yr average Projected EPS growth next year / next 5 years Earnings Estimate Increased/Decreased Earnings Estimate Spread Increased/Decreased Exceeded Analysts Estimates for two previous qtrs N A variety of news/press/company releases S Market Cap, Float, ADV wk/month/qtr/year, OBV,Cash Flow L RS 3mo/6mo/12mo Relative Strength, Rel Str Index I Institutional Ownership %, Ins Own increase/decrease M A variety of criteria: from OBV to psychological indicators. Other indicators I believe would compliment the above: ROE, ROA, Profit Margins, Price to Book/Sales, DOE, % Price change for wk/mo/qtr/ytd/yr Near or at 52 Week high 10/50/200 dma having crossed (x)DMA I've been AWOL from the list for 3-4 months and trying to start back up again. Thanks James Adams jadams@ntr.net jimadams@may-uky.campus.mci.net Maysville, KY USA - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Walter Stock Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Marder turns bullish on 'M'--ABSOLUTELY! Date: 16 Mar 1999 13:24:10 -0500 http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/current/marder.htx?source=3Dblq/yhoo > What he's saying is that the canny > speculator who knows how to cut his losses can make money here. There is > nothing in the article to substantiate *bullish "M"*. > > Dan Hi Dan, I beg to differ. The article is titled "And the Clouds Parted, Another Feast for the Intermediate Speculator" How much more bullish would you like? And yes, the "speculator" he talks about is us. If you go back through the Marder archives, you will see that he uses this term to describe the readers of his column, including intermediate-term traders and Canslim followers. "Speculator" may be a dirty word in the popular press, and among the masses. It isn't with Marder and William O'Neil : HTMMIS (2nd edition), p.87 : "let's define two misunderstood words. These words are Speculator and Investor. Bernard Baruch interpreted Speculator as follows: ' The word speculator comes from the Latin speculari which means to spy and observe. A speculator, therefore, is a person who observes and acts before it occurs.' Jesse Livermore, another old-time stock market legend, defined Investor this way: ' Investors are the big gamblers. They make a bet, stay with it, and if it goes wrong, they lose it all.' These definitions are a bit different than those you will read in Webster's Dictionary. But we know Baruch and Livermore on occasion made millions of dollars in the stock market. We're not sure about Webster. " I think I'll side with O'Neil, Marder, Baruch, and Livermore. When people ask me what I do for a living I tell them that I am a full-time position trader. If they call me a speculator I rather like it. At the beginning of March I went from cash to 100% invested and 100% margined. Just today I cashed in the margined profits. O'Neil and Elder make me money. So does Marder. He speaks especially to the people on our list. Walter Oakville ONT, Canada. - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Johan Van Houtven Subject: [CANSLIM] Searchable stock database with CANSLIM parameters Date: 16 Mar 1999 21:56:55 +0100 http://www.stocktables.com/ EPS rank, RS rank, Acc/Dis, etc. Free try out registration. From the people who produce "The Pitbull Investor". (Not exactly a plus... ;^) Johan - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: David Laswson Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Growth Stock Analytics Report for March 1, 1999 Date: 16 Mar 1999 19:59:36 -0500 Dear growth stock analytics guy, Sorry I didn't mean for you to take my message personel.As I said I wouldn't have even known about ADVP if not for your post.I hope my rudeness doesn't stop you from posting in the future. Thanks Ari P.S. sorry I didn't save your message so I don't know your name. - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: musicant@autobahn.org (Dan Musicant) Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Marder turns bullish on 'M'--ABSOLUTELY! Date: 17 Mar 1999 01:53:05 GMT On Tue, 16 Mar 1999 13:24:10 -0500, you wrote: :http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/current/marder.htx?source=3D3Dblq/yhoo : :> What he's saying is that the canny :> speculator who knows how to cut his losses can make money here. There :is :> nothing in the article to substantiate *bullish "M"*. :> :> Dan : :Hi Dan, : :I beg to differ. : :The article is titled "And the Clouds Parted, :Another Feast for the Intermediate Speculator" : :How much more bullish would you like? : :And yes, the "speculator" he talks about is us. :If you go back through the Marder archives, :you will see that he uses this term to describe the readers :of his column, including intermediate-term traders and Canslim :followers. : :"Speculator" may be a dirty word in the popular press, and :among the masses. : :It isn't with Marder and William O'Neil : : : HTMMIS (2nd edition), p.87 : "let's define two misunderstood :words. : These words are Speculator and Investor. Bernard Baruch interpreted : Speculator as follows: ' The word speculator comes from the Latin : speculari which means to spy and observe. A speculator, therefore, :is a : person who observes and acts before it occurs.' : Jesse Livermore, another old-time stock market legend, defined :Investor : this way: ' Investors are the big gamblers. They make a bet, stay :with it, : and if it goes wrong, they lose it all.' These definitions are a :bit : different than those you will read in Webster's Dictionary. But we :know : Baruch and Livermore on occasion made millions of dollars in the :stock : market. We're not sure about Webster. " : :I think I'll side with O'Neil, Marder, Baruch, and Livermore. : :When people ask me what I do for a living I tell them that I am a :full-time position trader. If they call me a speculator I rather like :it. : :At the beginning of March I went from cash to 100% invested and :100% margined. Just today I cashed in the margined profits. :O'Neil and Elder make me money. So does Marder. : :He speaks especially to the people on our list. : :Walter :Oakville ONT, Canada. : Marder says: "He (the canny speculator) realizes that now is not the time to be concerned with the shoddy breadth of the market's rally.=20 Not when so many aggressive growth stocks are acting so well." Now, my assertion is that this is not a bullish on "M" scenario, as in CANSLIM. It is a scenario in which a highly selective and careful speculator can have big gains. The aggressive growth stocks he is referring to are spearheaded by "selected Internet stocks providing leadership". These are not CANSLIM stocks, and "M" is still lousy. "M" has been lousy for over a year, if you are talking about the "M" for CANSLIM qualifying stocks, and unless you specify otherwise, that's what I have to assume. I am not arguing with Marder. I think he is absolutely right. But "bullish on 'M'" is not how I would characterize his outlook. Dan Dan - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Dave Wood" Subject: [CANSLIM] GM Date: 16 Mar 1999 22:03:17 -0500 Everyone, I know GM is not a canslim candidate, but I am just practicing my chart reading. GM is making a near perfect saucer with handle. It is clear on a daily chart. The saucer starts the week of 2/1/99 around 92. The decline is to about 83.5 (10%). The saucer ends 3/5/99 at 90. The handle is now seven days along. Volume acted well during the formation- declining during the flat bottom and picking up during the saucer completion and again declining during the handle. Any comments would be welcomed ! Dave - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Frank V. Wolynski" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Searchable stock database with CANSLIM parameters Date: 16 Mar 1999 23:14:45 -0500 At 09:56 PM 3/16/99 +0100, you wrote: >http://www.stocktables.com/ > >EPS rank, RS rank, Acc/Dis, etc. >Free try out registration. >From the people who produce "The Pitbull Investor". (Not exactly a plus... ;^) > >Johan > Why not a plus? I am naive about "Pitbull", as I know nothing of them. I do however like the stocktables site. Features I longed for in DGO, and it would have made the high subscription price more justified. Anyone have a read on how well the "Pit Bull" data correlates with IBD? Or if the EPS rankings are a valid methodology? Is the site updated by some kid good at html? Or is it a true database of reliable data? Will the Pitbull stop the freebie at some point? Does anyone know what they plan for a fee? I've been developing a "position trading" system using their screens and then my own nightly scans and short term timing signals. I like the results, but fear if they price me out of the Pitbull screens, I'll have done all my current research in vain. Regards, Frank Wolynski - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Connie Mack Rea Subject: [CANSLIM] NOVL [Connie Mack] Date: 17 Mar 1999 09:27:07 -0500 I know for certain that there are six members still in NOVL. I have corresponded with them already. Should there be others, further good news is out this morning. One house [Merrill] is setting a target of 30. The past few days of trading should provide a support for further up moves. Profit is a fine transit. Connie Mack - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: [CANSLIM] Economics, "M", and other stuff Date: 17 Mar 1999 00:53:19 -0500 I have been doing a little snipping of some recent comments, along with following as time permitted some of the more significant economic reports. Worth noting that today's reports show that factory industrial output continues to grow, but capacity utilization continues to slide. In fact, capacity utilization is now at the lowest since summer of 1992. Meanwhile, employment remains strong, inflation is virtually a non event, the Asian flu is drying up (tho largely on more expectation than realized changes); Russia's market has staged a remarkable recovery; oil continues to be so cheap they might as well either shut off the spigot or give it away; talk of oil production cuts remains just that, talk; precious metals are clearly non-inflationary while Slick Willy tries to talk the IMF into selling gold reserves to give more money away to poor nations; and the industries prospering including the restaurants, furniture, and auto makers (hmm, do I smell consumer goods here?). Breadth remains disgusting, yet talk of Dow 10,000 is all the news. What's the big deal, finding out if the Dow if five digit compliant? We already found out both major exchanges can handle billion share days, and that's a lot more important. Too much hype and psychology for me. Some of the biggest influences lately came from investors (actually, uneducated money managers) fear that the feds would hike rates. Never was any basis for that, any more than there had been any articulable basis for thinking they would cut rates, which was all the thinking just a few months prior. I keep saying, the Feds won't hike till there is demonstrable evidence of inflation, the days of "pre-imminent strikes" are done, partially due to all the political heat they took the last time they raised rates. But the fragility of the world economy remains a factor, there has been substantial recovery in many major and significant markets, much of which was done without any significant and underlying change happening, and far exceeding any "oversold" compensation. The US dollar has regained strength against most major currencies, but it has not been solely due to the strength of the US economy. While US consumer spending continues strong, and often outstripping US income increases, it's hardly the only story. Since its birth, the Euro, hyped as the "new" and "strong" currency, has predictably reacted more directly to economic conditions in Europe, now spread over 11 different nations. And the road has been downhill, and not encouraging. Consumer spending remains the "driving engine" in USA, and it's just not there in many other developed and developing nations. The yen got too strong to the point where it directly interfered with efforts to expand Japanese exports, resulting in talk clearly signaling that finally Japan would not defend its own currency. One of the few global "bright spots" has been the latest economic reports out of Germany, combined with the sudden resignation of the German Finance Minister (creating two back to back days of 5% gains in the DAX, followed by another 1.5% gain, talk about being spanked, how would you like to quit your post and have your domain jump 11.5% on the news??). Anyway, I expected that the market would need to flirt with the 10,000 level for a day or so, and that is what it appears to be doing. The best thing, IMHO, for right now would be a consolidation. I remain concerned, despite WON's lack of concern, at the lack of quality leadership that is earnings growth driven, and even more so by the lack of any breadth. Even VIX has been moving up on both bad and good days. Not a good sign for CANSLIMers. Enjoy the quotes below, my favorite (being an eternal optimist) is from Acampora. And be careful what you listen to or believe from the media. ``We're in a new bull market. This could be the start of a 'mega-market' lasting 12-15 years, similar to the boom markets that followed the First and Second World Wars,'' said influential Prudential Securities chief technical analyst, Ralph Acampora. The yen got early support from news that Japan's Economic Planning Agency said in its March report that overall conditions remained extremely severe, but also said the Japanese economy's "downward movement continues to slow to a halt." Separately, the Bank of Japan said the nation's economy "appears to have stopped deteriorating." The official optimism came just days after the agency reported Japan's economy shrank for an unprecedented fifth straight quarter in the October-to-December period. (Dow Jones) Tom W stkguru@netside.net ICQ # 5568838 - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Johan Van Houtven Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Economics, "M", and other stuff Date: 17 Mar 1999 16:04:46 +0100 >``We're in a new bull market. This could be the start of a >'mega-market' lasting 12-15 years, similar to the boom >markets that followed the First and Second World Wars,'' >said influential Prudential Securities chief technical >analyst, Ralph Acampora. Ralph was in Belgium a few days ago, giving a speech to a flock of big-time money managers. He said something comparable to the above. That (combined with the still very % of bulls and low % op bears) scared the hell out of me! The guy must be fully invested. I mean with a "'mega-market' lasting 12-15 years" ahead of us who wouldn't? Not good for us... -- Johan Van Houtven - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: mckeen@ix.netcom.com Subject: [CANSLIM] Marder turns bullish on 'M" -- ABSOLUTELY! Date: 17 Mar 1999 10:15:41 -0600 (CST) Walter, I have to agree with you on this one, although I see where Dan is coming from. The terms "investor" and "speculator" have several definiations depending upon where you stand, what you do and the environment you're in. "Baruch and Livermore on occasion made millions of dollars in the stock market. We're not sure about Webster." Well said. Thanks to you both for this article and comments. Made me think. That's always positive. Mary - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Johan Van Houtven Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Searchable stock database with CANSLIM parameters Date: 17 Mar 1999 09:38:47 +0100 Frank wrote: >At 09:56 PM 3/16/99 +0100, you wrote: >>http://www.stocktables.com/ >> >>EPS rank, RS rank, Acc/Dis, etc. >>Free try out registration. >>From the people who produce "The Pitbull Investor". (Not exactly a plus... >;^) >> >>Johan >> > >Why not a plus? Hi Frank, You did notice the ;^) winky, no? I wrote "Not exactly a plus .." referring to the Pitbull's head honcho, Henry Ford. He is a bit to much of an ego tripper for my liking and he hypes his services a bit to much IMHO. That's all. Nothing drastic. I wasn't referring to the stocktables themselves. If I didn't like those I wouldn't have posted the link on this list. >Anyone have a read on how well the "Pit Bull" data correlates with IBD? >Or if the EPS rankings are a valid methodology? >Is the site updated by some kid good at html? >Or is it a true database of reliable data? >Will the Pitbull stop the freebie at some point? My crystal ball guarantees it. :) >Does anyone know what they plan for a fee? > >I've been developing a "position trading" system using their screens and >then my own nightly scans and short term timing signals. I like the >results, You have my undivided attention now. Anything your are willing to share? -- Johan Van Houtven - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Robert Gammon" Subject: [CANSLIM] Media Mavens Date: 17 Mar 1999 11:29:50 -0500 In addition to everything else, the talking heads at CNBC can't seen to get the definition of Day Trader correct. They seem to want to refer to people much like those of us on this list, many of whom use an Internet web site to do our trading. There are days when we place a few trades that execute, and we stand aside other days. Our trades are mesaured in a few hundred shares typically, not a thousand shares or more. CNBC classifies this as Day Trading. My exposure to Day Trading, both first hand and in reading a variety of articles suggests a radically different picture. The focus in Day Trading is in NASDAQ stocks, with Level II quotes access, largely operating out of trading rooms, not homes, typcial trades of 1000 shares, and min equity to begin trading of $50,000. Yet another example of the media 'dumbing down' their talk to the LOWEST common denominator. Robert - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Ricardo Bekin" Subject: [CANSLIM] jakks Date: 17 Mar 1999 15:13:35 -0600 JAKK is putting in a really nice base, volume slowly drying up, worth watching IMO Ricardo - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Patrick Wahl" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Economics, "M", and other stuff Date: 17 Mar 1999 18:29:51 -0800 > I have been doing a little snipping of some recent comments, > along with following as time permitted some of the more > significant economic reports. Worth noting that today's > reports show that factory industrial output continues to Thanks for the summary, very good snapshot of what is going on. - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Walter Stock Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Marder turns bullish on 'M'--IN STONE Date: 17 Mar 1999 21:36:50 -0500 > Marder says: > > "He (the canny speculator) realizes that now is not the time to be > concerned with the shoddy breadth of the market's rally. > > Not when so many aggressive growth stocks are acting > so well." > > Now, my assertion is that this is not a bullish on "M" scenario, as in > CANSLIM. It is a scenario in which a highly selective and careful > speculator can have big gains. The aggressive growth stocks he is > referring to are spearheaded by "selected Internet > stocks providing leadership". These are not CANSLIM stocks, and "M" is > still lousy. "M" has been lousy for over a year, if you are talking > about the "M" for CANSLIM qualifying stocks, and unless you specify > otherwise, that's what I have to assume. I am not arguing with Marder. I > think he is absolutely right. But "bullish on 'M'" is not how I would > characterize his outlook. > > Dan > Dan, At the risk of belaboring the obvious, a couple of final comments. Marder says: " The averages will move higher from here, with selected Internet stocks providing leadership." This says 'M' is bullish (the averages will move higher). He does not distinguish between "M for Canslim stocks", and "M for non-Canslim stocks". He also says that some of the Internet stocks will provide leadership. Some Internet stocks can be considered leadership Canslim stocks. Examples: AOL (77/99/AAA) YHOO (77/99/AAA) EBAY (76/99/AAA) Remember also that O'Neil has altered the Canslim criteria in his multi-part IBD series of last year. He owns YHOO stock himself. Some Internet stocks are part of Canslim. They were and are my biggest winners. The vidiots in the mass media don't understand them and don't like them. So much the better for us on this list. Once all the talking heads on CNBC start issuing ponderous and weighty approvals of them (after having carefully loaded up their own boats), the internet stocks will then become obvious (to use WON's expression). That will be last call to sell, once the herd scrambles in. Walter - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Frank V. Wolynski" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Economics, "M", and other stuff Date: 17 Mar 1999 21:36:45 -0500 Excellent summary and overview Tom. One question regarding the snipped comment below follows: At 12:53 AM 3/17/99 -0500, you wrote: >Worth noting that today's >reports show that factory industrial output continues to >grow, but capacity utilization continues to slide. In fact, >capacity utilization is now at the lowest since summer of >1992. Is this primarily due to increased efficiencies within the industrial complex? What would be a factories motivation to increase efficiency if capacity is still available to produce more. I can't believe most would be that forward thinking in renovating and upgrading hardware. This seems to imply that factories are gaining efficiencies, thus capacity, due to other forces other than keeping up with demand. Is the pressure competitive pricing? Isn't this deflationary if true? I wasn't following such data in 1992, but imagine the forces resulting in lower utilization were much different than the current ones. Thanks and Regards, Frank Wolynski - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] vector vest Date: 17 Mar 1999 22:51:36 -0500 Hi John, "CANSLIM" is never consistently valid, since "M" is always subject to change. For the past several years, as we neared the end of a spectacular and record setting bull mkt, the breadth has been getting steadily narrower. Such remains the case today, despite WON's lack of concern. When breadth is narrow, do not expect small caps to generally participate in rallies due their lack of liquidity. The current mkt is a "momentum" mkt, by definition it will favor the "day traders" (those trading multi thousand share positions by the minute, or at worst by the half hour). While CANSLIM is somewhat momentum based, it is also fundies based, and fundies were tossed out the window several years ago when internet stocks became all the rage (and success stories). To play the current side of this momentum mkt, you need real time access and the ability to follow the mkt throughout the trading day. Without both, your risks are greatly increased. True CANSLIM doesn't require constant and full investing, rather it permits periods of "sideline watching and learning". That I am fully invested, and have mostly remained so, is a function of my obsession to the market, not to CANSLIM (and sheer personal stubbornness and stupidity as well!). I have never tried VectorVest as an investing tool, simply used it occasionally for a different view on valuation. Served as just one addl input to my thinking, but has never altered a decision on investing, or selling. Overall, my sense is that it is too kind to many stocks, largely disregarding the effect of RS (momentum) and rather placing too much weight on fundies and valuation to accurately forecast the short term. That's risky in a momentum based market. Tom W stkguru@netside.net ICQ # 5568838 -----Original Message----- Canslim seems to be more successful and is indeed intended for small cap stocks capitalization of 50,000,000 shares or less. It seems to me this sector isn't performing well at this time and hasn't for some time and probably wont for Some time. I have there fore looked at vector vest which used a more fundamental basis for stock valuation. wold anyone care to report their results using vector vest. I feel this is a canslim post as it brings into question is canslim valid at this time? If this is spam I apologize in advance John Adair - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Economics, "M", and other stuff Date: 17 Mar 1999 22:31:54 -0500 Hi Frank, Capacity utilization vs industrial production make for many interesting discussions. As I see it, there are several factors at work. First, consumer spending habits have continued to outstrip not only expectations, but increases in consumer income as well. While the bankruptcy rate has continued to climb, part of the difference lies, IMHO, in the often discounted "windfall wealth" generated from the stock mkt gains. Some of the rest of the difference was certainly funded by increases in consumer debt, tho lately that has been rather stable. And some came from refinancing of major debt, such as home mortgages, at lower rates, thus granting addl spendable income. Second, productivity has continued to climb, and has been a major factor in keeping inflationary pressures as little more than background "fears". Third, much like the cycle we saw several years ago with chip mfrs, when demand way outstripped supply to the point that consumer cos were placing duplicate and triplicate orders to ensure delivery from someone, I think the consumer spending demands have placed priority on keeping up with demand thru new plants and more efficient plants. The net effect of productivity and new capacity has continued to outstrip the growth in demand, with the result of net production output gains while capacity utilization falls. Fourth, we continue to see unexpected events that interfere with smooth economic development. Just yesterday, as one example, we saw the entire board of Commissioners of the European Union resign en masse in the face of a critical review report suggesting cronyism and financial irregularities. This could be serious enough with the youth of the Euro, and other political events involving Russia's expansionist efforts. But with the USA currently engaged in several serious and potential "trade embargo" issues involving European countries, it's not the time to put a fresh team of negotiators into the field. The European Union needs to be focused on the steps necessary to create the same kind of enonomic dynamics in Europe as we continue to see in the USA, based on the back of consumer spending, and as a result of continued consumer confidence in a stable job environment, low inflation, controlled govt spending, etc. With the historic cost of petroleum products so much higher in Europe than in the USA, there should have been a major boost in the continental economy from the current pricing alone, yet this seems to have had little impact. As to why a factory might want to improve efficiency even when utilization is not at full capacity, the simplest answer is cost. With so much restraint on virtually every industry that wants to raise prices on finished products, increased efficiency whether achieved thru productivity gains or better equipment usually means a cost savings. If you can't raise prices, then cut costs. Much like we need to keep telling our members of Congress. No more taxes, use tax dollars better, you're on a fixed budget just like most taxpayers. Tom W stkguru@netside.net ICQ # 5568838 -----Original Message----- Excellent summary and overview Tom. One question regarding the snipped comment below follows: At 12:53 AM 3/17/99 -0500, you wrote: >Worth noting that today's >reports show that factory industrial output continues to >grow, but capacity utilization continues to slide. In fact, >capacity utilization is now at the lowest since summer of >1992. Is this primarily due to increased efficiencies within the industrial complex? What would be a factories motivation to increase efficiency if capacity is still available to produce more. I can't believe most would be that forward thinking in renovating and upgrading hardware. This seems to imply that factories are gaining efficiencies, thus capacity, due to other forces other than keeping up with demand. Is the pressure competitive pricing? Isn't this deflationary if true? I wasn't following such data in 1992, but imagine the forces resulting in lower utilization were much different than the current ones. Thanks and Regards, Frank Wolynski - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Peter Newell" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] vector vest and is canslim valid Date: 18 Mar 1999 08:47:19 -0800 I'd say yes, AOL, MSFT, INTC, BBY, so did AMZN, CMGI, etc etc maybe some other's can help here gave classic breakout signals, and WON has been saying for a long time, big caps have more support than in the earlier 90's/80's when he wrote his book. Anytime you have a previous market leader giving breakout signals I'd go after it. As for vectorvest, I just suspended my subscription but did have some success with using high RS/undervalued stocks. But in general using high RT stocks seemed to work better. But do your own homework you may find something I didn't. Peter Newell http://www.betterbackups.com -----Original Message----- > >Canslim seems to be more successful and is indeed intended for small cap >stocks capitalization of 50,000,000 shares or less. >It seems to me this sector isn't performing well at this time and hasn't for >some time and probably wont for Some time. I have there fore looked at >vector vest which used a more fundamental basis for stock valuation. wold >anyone care to report their results using vector vest. >I feel this is a canslim post as it brings into question is canslim valid >at this time? >If this is spam I apologize in advance >John Adair > > >- > > - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Peter Newell" Subject: [CANSLIM] DLJ and tracking stock Date: 18 Mar 1999 08:53:49 -0800 I was wondering if someone could help me understand DLJ and its tracking stock. Last tues DLJ bo on high volume and after looking at it, realizing they weren't exactly in the growth catagory but had earnings and a high rs and solid chart pattern decided I'd take a nibble. It promptly went from 60 to 69. Then its ranked #1 online brokerage, then Schwab says wow our online business is twice expected then BOOM. DLJ announces its issuing new shares and a tracking stock. Stock immediately blows down and I sell. Can someone explain this tracking stock. I got out because without the internet portion I'd didn't see anypoint in taking the risk. Thanks, Peter Newell - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: musicant@autobahn.org (Dan Musicant) Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Marder turns bullish on 'M'--IN STONE Date: 18 Mar 1999 14:06:36 GMT On Wed, 17 Mar 1999 21:36:50 -0500, you wrote: :> Marder says: :> :> "He (the canny speculator) realizes that now is not the time to be :> concerned with the shoddy breadth of the market's rally. :> :> Not when so many aggressive growth stocks are acting :> so well." :> :> Now, my assertion is that this is not a bullish on "M" scenario, as in :> CANSLIM. It is a scenario in which a highly selective and careful :> speculator can have big gains. The aggressive growth stocks he is :> referring to are spearheaded by "selected Internet :> stocks providing leadership". These are not CANSLIM stocks, and "M" is :> still lousy. "M" has been lousy for over a year, if you are talking :> about the "M" for CANSLIM qualifying stocks, and unless you specify :> otherwise, that's what I have to assume. I am not arguing with Marder.= I :> think he is absolutely right. But "bullish on 'M'" is not how I would :> characterize his outlook. :> :> Dan :> : :Dan, : :At the risk of belaboring the obvious, a couple :of final comments. : :Marder says: " The averages will move higher from here, :with selected Internet stocks providing leadership." : :This says 'M' is bullish (the averages will move higher). :He does not distinguish between "M for Canslim stocks", :and "M for non-Canslim stocks". The averages moving higher is not the same as bullish 'M', and that is exactly my point. If an index is made up of 100 stocks, and they all go down 2% on a given day except for 3 that go up 40%, the index will rise, although 'M' for the stocks of this index is lousy. Market breadth has been extremely poor for the market, and 'M' as O'Neill has conceived it is not healthy.=20 : :He also says that some of the Internet stocks will :provide leadership. Some Internet stocks can be :considered leadership Canslim stocks. Examples: : :AOL (77/99/AAA) :YHOO (77/99/AAA) :EBAY (76/99/AAA) These stocks have done sensationally, and will probably continue to do so. : :Remember also that O'Neil has altered the Canslim :criteria in his multi-part IBD series of last year. He :owns YHOO stock himself. : :Some Internet stocks are part of Canslim. They were and are :my biggest winners. Same here. :The vidiots in the mass media don't :understand them and don't like them. So much the better for us :on this list. : :Once all the talking heads on CNBC start issuing ponderous :and weighty approvals of them (after having carefully loaded up :their own boats), the internet stocks will then become obvious :(to use WON's expression). Yes, and in WON's terms, if you get in when it has become obvious to everyone, it will usually cost you. Dan : :That will be last call to sell, once the herd scrambles in. : :Walter : : :- : - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Ssingh@aol.com Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] DLJ and tracking stock Date: 18 Mar 1999 16:40:56 EST Peter, it is back to 69 or so. I rad som information about tracking stock at this URL: http://www.thestreet.com/stocks/trading/725275.html Good luck with DLJ.... Surindra In a message dated 3/18/99 8:54:11 AM Eastern Standard Time, ppnewell@bellsouth.net writes: << I was wondering if someone could help me understand DLJ and its tracking stock. Last tues DLJ bo on high volume and after looking at it, realizing they weren't exactly in the growth catagory but had earnings and a high rs and solid chart pattern decided I'd take a nibble. It promptly went from 60 to 69. Then its ranked #1 online brokerage, then Schwab says wow our online business is twice expected then BOOM. DLJ announces its issuing new shares and a tracking stock. Stock immediately blows down and I sell. Can someone explain this tracking stock. I got out because without the internet portion I'd didn't see anypoint in taking the risk. Thanks, Peter Newell >> - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Patrick Wahl" Subject: [CANSLIM] Adobe Date: 18 Mar 1999 18:44:32 -0800 Ater the market close today Adobe posted earnings that beat estimates by 8 cents, and the base looks good, so it might be ready to pop tomorrow. The EPS number is under 60, prior to this quarters earnings, so that disqualifies at as a Canslim stock. - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: mckeen@ix.netcom.com Subject: [CANSLIM] Economics, "M", and other stuff Date: 18 Mar 1999 20:06:28 -0600 (CST) Tom, Thanks for an excellent market synopsis. Mary - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: musicant@autobahn.org (Dan Musicant) Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Adobe Date: 19 Mar 1999 13:11:45 GMT On Thu, 18 Mar 1999 18:44:32 -0800, you wrote: :Ater the market close today Adobe posted earnings that beat=20 :estimates by 8 cents, and the base looks good, so it might be=20 :ready to pop tomorrow. The EPS number is under 60, prior to this=20 :quarters earnings, so that disqualifies at as a Canslim stock. : It's no secret that Adobe has been one of the top players in graphics software for years, and I'd have to characterize them as the best positioned player in the market with their high end industry standard digital format "PostScript". They are the Microsoft of the graphics world. That spells "L". Their revenue from licensing PS is down 9%, though. Revenues from software is up. The chart looks fortuitous for a breakout, but I don't know if the fundamentals of the company warrant it. Could happen. Price action will tell the story. As always, it's the best indicator. Nasdaq futures are very high this morning, and it would seem that the wind is blowing in the right direction for tech stocks today. As well, world markets had a sharp reversal of yesterday's sell off. Grab hold of something and hold on tight... Dan - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Luke Lang Subject: [CANSLIM] Is FDX breaking out from a cup & handle? Date: 19 Mar 1999 10:05:56 -0800 (PST) What do you all think about FDX? It looks like a breakout on large volume yesterday. The handle looks kind of short (about 4 weeks). I don't have the IBD numbers for it. Thanks for any input. Best regards, Luke Lang _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Johan Van Houtven Subject: [CANSLIM] ATHM & XCIT Date: 19 Mar 1999 21:10:42 +0100 ATHM & XCIT, two internets breaking out: ATHM: 40 98 A XCIT: 77 99 B Not exactly superb CS numbers but as Internuts they are excused for their shortcommings. Johan - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Anindo Majumdar Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] ATHM & XCIT Date: 19 Mar 1999 17:49:42 -0800 (PST) This could do an EBAY or a DCLK. Anindo > > ATHM & XCIT, two internets breaking out: > > ATHM: 40 98 A > > XCIT: 77 99 B > > Not exactly superb CS numbers but as Internuts they are excused for their > shortcommings. > > > > Johan > > > > > > > - > > - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Patrick Wahl" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Adobe Date: 19 Mar 1999 20:43:34 -0800 > It's no secret that Adobe has been one of the top players in graphics > software for years, and I'd have to characterize them as the best > positioned player in the market with their high end industry standard > digital format "PostScript". They are the Microsoft of the graphics > world. That spells "L". Also, I got the following from a Reuters news story yesterday, and I think this constitutes N. "Adobe has now strung together two strong quarters following a reorganization begun last August that included 300 job cuts, or about 10 percent of its work force. Sales of its Acrobat, PhotoShop and Illustrator software paced results, while cost controls helped boost net income." - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: [CANSLIM] DGO New Highs Date: 20 Mar 1999 08:28:09 -0500 Despite all the D10K hoopla, the list got shorter this week, down 7% overall to 230, while the number of stocks still meeting the basic RS/EPS test of 80/80 dropped even more, down nearly 20% to 80. And of these, nearly half (38) made their latest new high on Friday, and all closed down from that high, some down as much as 7 pts from that new high. Can we all say together "narrowing breadth"?? Here's the survivors: SNE, ASTE, CPRT, ADVP, CLE, ISCA, LUV, BBHF, COMR, FNDTF, DY, ARMHY, MDS, RGIS, GDT, TOM, TLAB, SGP, GICOF, SDLI, JBL, GEOC, RFMD, NEON, PTI, BJ, ICUB, PFE, VRTS, WMT, BDL, EMC, NSOL, AGN, SONC, FISV, WCOM, PROX, SCH, PEGS, BJICA, LIN, SPLS, JCI, AXP, MINI, FLEX, BMET, FSR, AXTI, LM, GE, HVT, AFL, QCOM, CTL, FMY, LEVL, NTT, JAKK, AFS, ABDR, TIF, MWD, UTX, AMGN, FON, MTP, UNPH, ADBE, MRK, CPWM, OMC, WGO, JNJ, HMC, GUC, POS, HHS, KR. Happy hunting. Tom W stkguru@netside.net ICQ # 5568838 - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: FBNAirPlt@aol.com Subject: [CANSLIM] Pitbull stock tables Date: 20 Mar 1999 08:46:36 EST Johan Wrote/replyed: >Anyone have a read on how well the "Pit Bull" data correlates with IBD? They have a "explanation page" before you go to the stock tables. I have looked at few stocks (about 20) that had RS of 99 and out of this list 1 stock was listed as a 99 but had an RS of 56, so I'd say the RS's are pretty good but would require an IBD verification. They have and Acc/Dis rating that runs from -5 to +5 with +3 and > equaling an "A" Acc. >Or if the EPS rankings are a valid methodology? >Is the site updated by some kid good at HTML? >Or is it a true database of reliable data? >Will the Pitbull stop the freebie at some point? >Does anyone know what they plan for a fee? It will cost 19.95 month after finished with Beta. This site is only a few months old so they are still "under construction." It will be free with one of their other services i.e. long/short/mutual fund services. >I've been developing a "position trading" system using their screens and >then my own nightly scans and short term timing signals. I like the >results, Robert - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Peter Newell" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Adobe Date: 20 Mar 1999 14:58:03 -0800 The stock showed up two days ago, and I'm still kicking myself great chart pattern, I'd buy it if it settles a little. Peter Newell www.betterbackups.com -----Original Message----- > It's no secret that Adobe has been one of the top players in graphics > software for years, and I'd have to characterize them as the best > positioned player in the market with their high end industry standard > digital format "PostScript". They are the Microsoft of the graphics > world. That spells "L". Also, I got the following from a Reuters news story yesterday, and I think this constitutes N. "Adobe has now strung together two strong quarters following a reorganization begun last August that included 300 job cuts, or about 10 percent of its work force. Sales of its Acrobat, PhotoShop and Illustrator software paced results, while cost controls helped boost net income." - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Marc Laniado" Subject: [CANSLIM] New Member and stocks to discuss Date: 21 Mar 1999 13:57:49 -0000 Dear All, I have just joined this list having read the book about 6 months ago. I come from England having being introduced to investing by my wife's father and they are both native New Yorkers. I follow almost everything on the Internet. I hope someone can advise me now or refer to previous message with the following questions. Given the large cap and Internet successes of late, has CANSLIM actually worked well for any stocks in the last few years? What needs to be changed to be changed other than what I have managed to glean from the course on the IBD web site which was published last year? I recently bought CMVT having just broken out and then it fell on some volume on Friday. Does this show that its figures were discounted already and could this have been predicted? Was it just part of the market action? They announced a stock split 3/2 from which I can tell is the first for several years. As this is occurring at the beginning of the recent increase in bullish activity in the market, I felt this was reasonable. Price about $78. EPS RS SMR A/D GROUP RS CAP 98 91 A B 89 3.6 BILLION What do others think of (i) CTL: it just broke out in a group which had 15 new highs. The group relative strength over 1,2 and 12 weeks has been: 14, 17, 32. EPS RS SMR A/D GROUP RS CAP 92 91 A A 93 6.7 BILLION (II) ADBE: it broke out with a new high and so did 7 others from its group EPS RS SMR A/D GROUP RS CAP 87 89 B A 79 7.8 BILLION (III) TLAB: formed cup with handle over ?6 months; this was a bit deep. The stock broke above its peak of the handle on twice normal volume a few days ago. Does it need to beat its previous high on heavy volume to be bought? 5 members of this group made new highs this week EPS RS SMR A/D GROUP RS CAP 98 93 A A 89 18 BILLION ---- Stocks whick look interesting include NITE which has just reached its old high in cup and its volume is drying up. Does anyone have a reasoned opinion on this stock and its prospects? EPS RS SMR A/D GROUP RS CAP 99 99 A A 95 3 BILLION --- GUC EPS RS SMR A/D GROUP RS CAP 93 95 A A 91 4.2 BILLION just broke out --- EUSA EPS RS SMR A/D GROUP RS CAP 89 88 A A 89 0.5 BILLION May break out I think these figures are all correct, but I apologise if I have made a typing error. Thank you all for your help. Marc marclaniado@msn.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] New Member and stocks to discuss Date: 21 Mar 1999 09:48:21 -0500 Hi Marc, Welcome to the group. Since you already read WON's series last year, you are as current as anyone on O'Neil's thinking on size ("S") and institutional holdings ("I"). Clearly, small caps are no longer mainstream CANSLIM, large caps with their liquidity and momentum are not only more in favor with the market but are also now acceptable to WON. HTMMIS is seriously overdue for a major re-write. Should the mkt ever expand its breadth back to more traditional bull mkt levels, then the small caps may once again resume a place in CANSLIM, but with the volatility of the mkt, I don't know if that will happen soon, if ever. Certainly, it has not been happening for several years now. Thank you for an articulate and "on topic" post. It's clear you have been doing your homework, and I will try to respond on the stocks you mention later today after I visit DGO. Tom W stkguru@netside.net ICQ # 5568838 -----Original Message----- Dear All, I have just joined this list having read the book about 6 months ago. I come from England having being introduced to investing by my wife's father and they are both native New Yorkers. I follow almost everything on the Internet. I hope someone can advise me now or refer to previous message with the following questions. Given the large cap and Internet successes of late, has CANSLIM actually worked well for any stocks in the last few years? What needs to be changed to be changed other than what I have managed to glean from the course on the IBD web site which was published last year? I recently bought CMVT having just broken out and then it fell on some volume on Friday. Does this show that its figures were discounted already and could this have been predicted? Was it just part of the market action? They announced a stock split 3/2 from which I can tell is the first for several years. As this is occurring at the beginning of the recent increase in bullish activity in the market, I felt this was reasonable. Price about $78. EPS RS SMR A/D GROUP RS CAP 98 91 A B 89 3.6 BILLION What do others think of (i) CTL: it just broke out in a group which had 15 new highs. The group - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: DS Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] New Member and stocks to discuss Date: 21 Mar 1999 09:59:26 -0600 >>I recently bought CMVT having just broken out and then it fell on some volume on Friday. Does this show that its figures were discounted already and could this have been predicted? Was it just part of the market action? They announced a stock split 3/2 from which I can tell is the first for several years. As this is occurring at the beginning of the recent increase in bullish activity in the market, I felt this was reasonable. Price about $78.<< Hi Marc, I happened to be watching this stock when it was attempting to move on 3/16 so I'll chime in here. I wanted to buy the stock if it moved through the 82 area on heavy buying. As I remember it the stock moved through that point in the morning on 3/16 but I didn't buy it because the volume just wasn't there. The ten day average daily volume(ADV) is about 1 million and the 30 day ADV is about 850 thousand. It traded about 1.5 million shares on 3/16 but at the time of the breakout it just didn't have the power behind it, IMHO. On Friday's price action, I would say it was just part of the market action. There were lots of cross currents in Friday's session with the triple witch and IBM rumors. The volume picture still looks good on the chart but the stock fell back into its base after a breakout attempt. (What I am saying here is VERY subjective. A pure CS'er would probably say the buy point is 1/8 above the old high and that the stock is still making a handle but that is not how I trade. I like to buy just above the most recent resistance. If that also happens to be a new high than that is icing on the cake) However, the most important thing to me is this: CMVT reported better than expected earnings and set a 2/3 stock split on 3/16. On 3/17 a Lehmam analyst raised his earnings and target. All this good news with no rally in the stock is not good. If the stock can't go into new high ground on good news I don't see how it will get there. So, I would agreed with you that the news is in the stock. Sometimes the market doesn't respond as quickly as it should and the stock may react to this news next week. If I had bought the stock on 3/16 I would already be out of it with a loss based on what I said above. However, I also want to stress that if it moves through its buy point next week and the technicals are still good I would buy it right back as if I never owned it. Good Trading, DSquires - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Subject: [CANSLIM] Intro Date: 21 Mar 1999 09:12:12 -0700 Hi to all. I joined this list a couple of months ago and thought it was about time I introduced myself. My name is Ray Wroblewski but use the nickname "Ziggy". I have been investing for quite a few years and have had mixed success over the years with primary success buying large cap growth stocks and holding them for 8-10 years. My past attempts at timing or intermediate trading were not very successful. I had winners but also had losers and seemed to always be threading water. I started subscribing to IBD a few years ago and in a loose way started following CANSLIM but primarily for stock selection only. After several up and down years I realized that I had no money management strategy and no sell strategy and that was a problem. I started re-reading HTMMIS with emphasis on the chapters on selling. This has helped me tremendously as I now have been working on this part of my investment strategy. I hope to be able to contribute to this list although I feel somewhat of a beginner and still have a lot to learn. I have learned much from members of this group and really appreciate their dedication and efforts. Ray "Ziggy" Wroblewski - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Intro Date: 21 Mar 1999 11:35:48 -0500 Welcome, Ziggy The only beginners are the ones that haven't yet started. Tom W stkguru@netside.net ICQ # 5568838 -----Original Message----- Hi to all. I joined this list a couple of months ago and thought it was about time I introduced myself. My name is Ray Wroblewski but use the nickname "Ziggy". I I hope to be able to contribute to this list although I feel somewhat of a beginner and still have a lot to learn. I have learned much from members of this group and really appreciate their dedication and efforts. Ray "Ziggy" Wroblewski - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Coolcat895@aol.com Subject: [CANSLIM] Re: canslim-digest V2 #559 Date: 21 Mar 1999 11:14:49 EST In a message dated 3/21/99 5:45:51 AM, you wrote: <> Are you planning on buying 80 stocks? I am interested in how you screen that list down to 4-5. - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "David S. Pinhasik" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] New Member and stocks to discuss Date: 21 Mar 1999 18:49:05 +0300 >What do others think of >(II) ADBE: it broke out with a new high and so did 7 others from its group >EPS RS SMR A/D GROUP RS CAP >87 89 B A 79 7.8 BILLION Hello all. Here the EPS rank is listed as 87. However on March 18, someone posted the following: :Ater the market close today Adobe posted earnings that beat :estimates by 8 cents, and the base looks good, so it might be :ready to pop tomorrow. The EPS number is under 60, prior to this :quarters earnings, so that disqualifies at as a Canslim stock. : The symbol wasn't given but I assume it is the same Adobe. Which is the correct EPS rank? I do not have access to DGO? Thanks, David - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Dave Rubin" Subject: [CANSLIM] RE: Adobe Date: 21 Mar 1999 11:53:50 -0500 Another thing that constitutes "N" for Adobe is their upcoming release of the new InDesign software, which will compete head-to-head with Quark. (See article in Monday's IBD.) If this software is as good as they say, they have a good shot at stealing a lot of the market since nearly everyone who uses Quark also uses Adobe Illustrator and/or Photoshop. - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] New Member and stocks to discuss Date: 21 Mar 1999 12:12:07 -0500 Hello, David The figures posted by Marc are correct according to DGO except for RS which now (as of Friday's close) shows 89, and A/D which is now A. The EPS is shown as 87. In addition, u/d is 1.4, and Timeliness is also A and ROE is 17%. Offsetting some of this is that the company previously forecasted 62 to 66 cents for the latest (Q1) which was a substantial gain, but only delivered 60 cents, still beating estimates. Tom W stkguru@netside.net ICQ # 5568838 -----Original Message----- >What do others think of >(II) ADBE: it broke out with a new high and so did 7 others from its group >EPS RS SMR A/D GROUP RS CAP >87 89 B A 79 7.8 BILLION Hello all. Here the EPS rank is listed as 87. However on March 18, someone posted the following: :Ater the market close today Adobe posted earnings that beat :estimates by 8 cents, and the base looks good, so it might be :ready to pop tomorrow. The EPS number is under 60, prior to this :quarters earnings, so that disqualifies at as a Canslim stock. : The symbol wasn't given but I assume it is the same Adobe. Which is the correct EPS rank? I do not have access to DGO? Thanks, David - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Screening my DGO New High List (was Fw: [CANSLIM] Re: canslim-digest V2 #559) Date: 21 Mar 1999 12:17:55 -0500 Resending this, since I failed to correct the subject line from the "canslim-digest" prohibition to protect us from having a digest version reposted. For digest members, please remember to change the subj line when you reply from there. Tom W stkguru@netside.net ICQ # 5568838 -----Original Message----- Actually, I don't screen that list at all. I post it for the benefit of members without access to original WON type CANSLIM data as a starting point for screening and study. My personal criteria differ somewhat, as most know. I am concentrating on small caps, and lower priced stocks, will tolerate a lower EPS than 80, but seek a higher RS up in the 90s. Thus I use the overall list for screening, but don't use the subset that I post. I also use other sources for new highs during the week. If my list of DGO New Highs were my only source of CANSLIM type stocks, then I would first (knowing already that they meet the 80/80 test) look at the charts of each, searching for a constructive pattern. After that, I would examine each for details such as true earnings and sales growth (both sequentially and annually); ROE; debt; management and funds holdings; etc, then move on to whatever my favorite technical indicators are (mine is MACD). From the survivors of that process would come any updates to my watch list. Tom W stkguru@netside.net ICQ # 5568838 -----Original Message----- In a message dated 3/21/99 5:45:51 AM, you wrote: <> Are you planning on buying 80 stocks? I am interested in how you screen that list down to 4-5. - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: musicant@autobahn.org (Dan Musicant) Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] RE: Adobe Date: 21 Mar 1999 19:26:42 GMT On Sun, 21 Mar 1999 11:53:50 -0500, you wrote: :Another thing that constitutes "N" for Adobe is their upcoming release = of :the new InDesign software, which will compete head-to-head with Quark. = (See :article in Monday's IBD.) : :If this software is as good as they say, they have a good shot at = stealing a :lot of the market since nearly everyone who uses Quark also uses Adobe :Illustrator and/or Photoshop. PageMaker, which Adobe acquired from Aldus (bought them out, if I recall), has been QuarkExpress's chief competitor all along. I think that Adobe's acquisition of PageMaker was good for the product, as Adobe's software development muscle is undoubtedly superior to what Aldus was capable of. For a while, PageMaker began to lag behind Quark. I remember reading articles in PC Magazine, where their graphics software review guru expressed a clear preference for Quark. This was around 3 years ago, when PageMaker 5.0 just came out. However, a lot of water is under the bridge since then, and I've read some rather negative comments about Quark recently (not in PC Magazine). Illustrator, and in particular Photoshop are industry standard tools. Like PostScript, Photoshop is indispensable to the typical graphics professional. However, this field is not exploding on the scene. It is well established, continuously evolving, very competitive, and huge. A few years back I was grooming myself for a career in DTP, but opted for programming, a field that is and will remain less saturated. Anyone can produce a nice DTP document with a few weeks of training and some concentrated use of intelligence, especially if they are discerning and have good taste. But programming is a far greater challenge. I went to Adobe's website and got some info on InDesign. For openers, the system requirements are (in my opinion) eyepopping. Available in Summer 1999. You need a Pentium II (300 MHz processor recommended), 48 MB RAM (64 recommended), Windows 98, etc. Here's the address: http://www.adobe.com/prodindex/indesign/price.html Dan - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Patrick Wahl" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] New Member and stocks to discuss Date: 21 Mar 1999 13:40:10 -0800 > Hello all. Here the EPS rank is listed as 87. However on March 18, someone > posted the following: > > :Ater the market close today Adobe posted earnings that beat > :estimates by 8 cents, and the base looks good, so it might be > :ready to pop tomorrow. The EPS number is under 60, prior to this > :quarters earnings, so that disqualifies at as a Canslim stock. > : > The symbol wasn't given but I assume it is the same Adobe. > Which is the correct EPS rank? I do not have access to DGO? I posted the original number of 60, which I got from last Friday's IBD. I would guess that Adobe's latest earnings report was so strong that it was enough to bump the EPS rank up to 87 when it was recomputed with the new figure. - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Ronald J. Russell, Jr." Subject: [CANSLIM] Weekly Stock List - March 19, 1999 - Condensed Version Date: 21 Mar 1999 22:09:06 -0500 Hi All, Well we dropped 18 this week - down to 185 qualifiers. Criteria are: EPS > 69 RS > 84 GRS > 59 A/D = "A" or "B" CLOSE > 10.00 30 Day ADV > 75,000 Trade well, Ron Symbol EPS RS GRS ERG A/D Close 30 ADV ABDR 98 95 85 278 A $ 78.380 166,923 ADBE 87 89 79 255 B $ 54.000 879,947 ADCT 96 90 89 275 A $ 40.810 1,650,460 ADVP 98 96 70 264 A $ 56.380 198,157 AEOS 99 95 91 285 A $ 69.250 404,497 AGN 81 96 87 264 B $ 94.560 366,757 AGPH 72 91 93 256 A $ 58.190 550,487 AHAA 72 95 92 259 A $ 18.500 277,098 ALNT 77 90 74 241 A $ 42.000 132,017 ALSI 99 95 82 276 A $ 32.500 150,060 ALTR 89 92 92 273 A $ 58.750 2,762,636 AMGN 93 97 93 283 A $ 77.560 4,450,160 ANF 99 95 91 285 A $ 86.500 660,683 AOL 77 99 98 274 A $ 119.250 21,514,642 APPB 92 86 84 262 A $ 26.560 438,817 APWR 70 86 61 217 A $ 10.500 90,737 ASML 77 95 96 268 A $ 45.750 1,423,023 ASND 97 93 92 282 A $ 77.440 4,349,127 ASTSF 72 85 92 249 B $ 39.000 85,803 AT 79 89 74 242 A $ 64.880 628,847 ATI 91 93 91 275 A $ 87.630 2,087,113 AVP 71 86 66 223 B $ 45.380 1,091,800 AVS 97 86 72 255 B $ 43.750 111,517 AXNT 80 86 97 263 A $ 31.380 372,810 AXP 80 86 85 251 A $ 123.130 1,837,920 BBBY 96 85 69 250 A $ 30.940 1,289,763 BBY 76 98 96 270 B $ 50.380 2,772,837 BID 76 87 69 232 A $ 30.000 283,863 BMET 87 87 66 240 A $ 42.750 892,487 BOL 71 89 61 221 B $ 66.000 268,157 BSX 77 92 87 256 A $ 41.500 2,210,670 BSYS 88 89 76 253 A $ 56.690 147,300 BUD 74 90 62 226 B $ 76.060 1,429,990 BVF 90 86 68 244 A $ 42.000 90,330 BXM 81 95 93 269 A $ 70.250 231,653 CCL 95 86 77 258 A $ 46.250 1,011,797 CHCS 86 87 91 264 A $ 19.250 94,730 CHKP 98 88 97 283 A $ 41.380 637,113 CLE 88 92 87 267 A $ 27.500 493,900 CLFY 97 95 79 271 B $ 25.250 385,917 CLX 83 85 74 242 A $ 118.310 570,237 CMB 71 87 84 242 B $ 82.500 3,967,610 CMED 99 87 66 252 A $ 12.500 93,780 CMGI 77 99 99 275 A $ 184.060 4,243,350 CMVT 98 91 89 278 A $ 77.750 853,150 COF 88 87 85 260 A $ 134.940 446,070 COST 85 92 90 267 B $ 87.940 1,955,153 CPRT 94 95 85 274 B $ 18.000 194,217 CREE 99 97 92 288 A $ 44.000 340,130 CSCO 96 94 92 282 A $ 104.500 15,143,568 CSN 82 94 74 250 B $ 20.250 419,483 CTL 92 91 93 276 A $ 73.310 396,310 DDDDF 99 95 79 273 A $ 51.500 124,303 DELL 99 93 81 273 A $ 40.250 59,939,376 DH 88 92 90 270 B $ 67.750 1,549,903 DL 83 87 66 236 A $ 31.630 401,757 DLGC 74 90 82 246 B $ 33.060 187,070 ECL 83 86 74 243 A $ 39.130 266,430 ECSGY 97 86 76 259 A $ 33.130 86,623 EFII 83 92 79 254 A $ 37.810 599,357 EL 87 90 66 243 B $ 89.690 246,557 EMC 96 97 86 279 A $ 118.250 4,435,560 EUSA 89 88 89 266 A $ 28.880 119,350 EXPD 91 91 78 260 B $ 51.500 132,263 FDC 74 90 85 249 B $ 41.440 1,675,853 FLEX 99 97 92 288 A $ 48.880 1,231,007 FM 97 88 84 269 A $ 24.250 190,637 FNDTF 80 97 80 257 A $ 30.750 194,287 FON 80 91 93 264 B $ 99.880 998,913 FOSL 91 92 64 247 A $ 32.880 118,553 FS 70 92 77 239 A $ 41.750 89,833 GDT 91 92 87 270 A $ 60.560 1,286,773 GE 84 86 61 231 A $ 112.000 5,283,530 GENZ 90 94 93 277 B $ 52.880 1,289,123 GEOC 84 97 79 260 A $ 46.470 196,603 GICOF 98 95 93 286 A $ 13.630 102,333 GILTF 97 90 89 276 A $ 56.630 166,007 GNSS 84 97 92 273 A $ 27.750 394,740 GPS 96 95 91 282 A $ 67.440 1,441,063 GTW 95 89 81 265 A $ 68.500 2,386,797 GUC 93 95 91 279 A $ 81.000 489,980 HD 95 91 73 259 A $ 63.250 3,515,044 HDI 94 93 71 258 A $ 56.880 557,950 HH 95 89 70 254 B $ 14.880 111,730 HLYW 77 87 69 233 B $ 21.940 903,327 IBI 86 95 91 272 A $ 43.880 527,983 IBM 90 87 81 258 B $ 168.560 5,309,894 INSS 99 94 76 269 A $ 66.750 300,537 INTC 85 88 92 265 A $ 119.000 20,604,190 IONA 98 85 79 262 A $ 37.250 118,673 ISCA 87 91 77 255 A $ 47.500 95,790 ITGI 99 92 85 276 A $ 56.000 98,940 JAKK 99 97 72 268 A $ 19.750 157,790 JBL 82 96 92 270 A $ 41.060 1,214,917 JEF 82 85 95 262 B $ 49.750 116,453 KIDE 77 99 64 240 B $ 28.500 188,530 KSU 89 85 71 245 A $ 49.940 427,697 KSWS 77 97 88 262 A $ 49.250 157,060 LEVL 88 95 92 275 B $ 47.500 2,443,367 LGTO 99 85 79 263 A $ 53.130 1,185,927 LLTC 83 92 92 267 A $ 49.000 1,898,970 LOW 93 93 73 259 B $ 63.750 1,783,750 LU 95 86 89 270 A $ 100.750 7,145,930 LXK 97 88 82 267 A $ 88.500 647,130 MCD 77 89 84 250 A $ 43.630 4,300,553 MCHP 80 86 86 252 B $ 33.440 702,527 MCRL 96 92 92 280 A $ 54.750 125,767 MERQ 73 93 79 245 A $ 33.380 402,837 MHP 81 88 75 244 B $ 56.750 563,613 MNMD 98 92 87 277 A $ 93.130 152,650 MRK 83 86 68 237 A $ 86.000 4,846,394 MSFT 99 93 94 286 A $ 171.190 18,485,254 MSPG 77 98 98 273 B $ 89.130 971,073 MWD 80 91 71 242 A $ 101.630 2,139,027 MXIM 89 90 92 271 A $ 49.690 1,589,320 NCOG 99 88 85 272 A $ 34.000 178,400 NEON 80 99 79 258 B $ 59.000 733,103 NOVL 77 96 92 265 B $ 26.190 7,844,760 NPCI 76 85 84 245 B $ 15.190 98,143 NSOL 84 99 98 281 A $ 288.000 1,478,400 NTAP 98 97 86 281 A $ 54.130 1,066,400 OCLI 89 97 64 250 B $ 38.130 116,277 OMC 91 92 80 263 A $ 73.940 670,907 ORBKF 90 89 96 275 A $ 49.000 166,707 ORCL 98 89 79 266 A $ 27.560 20,060,082 OSSI 89 90 84 263 A $ 32.000 1,444,637 OSTE 73 94 87 254 A $ 43.250 137,257 PCLE 76 89 88 253 A $ 38.750 92,417 PDCO 91 85 61 237 B $ 45.060 94,813 PEGS 80 97 85 262 B $ 43.880 184,710 PFE 89 88 68 245 A $ 140.750 2,525,007 PKN 77 85 64 226 B $ 94.940 220,500 PLCE 99 97 91 287 A $ 25.000 165,383 POS 88 94 80 262 A $ 83.630 107,243 POWI 72 98 76 246 B $ 31.500 337,630 PPDI 95 88 70 253 A $ 32.060 202,370 PSUN 93 95 91 279 A $ 31.750 513,657 PVN 98 97 85 280 A $ 107.750 843,287 PVSW 80 88 79 247 A $ 16.810 120,773 QLGC 98 93 92 283 A $ 47.500 467,110 RESM 98 88 87 273 A $ 33.250 289,583 RFMD 80 99 95 274 A $ 95.130 365,037 RTRSY 75 89 85 249 A $ 83.630 285,953 SANM 97 93 92 282 A $ 61.940 922,783 SAPE 99 90 79 268 A $ 65.000 218,843 SBUX 96 87 84 267 A $ 56.060 1,180,707 SCH 94 99 95 288 A $ 89.630 2,100,523 SEBL 99 94 79 272 A $ 46.380 944,273 SLR 96 96 95 287 A $ 48.060 2,174,030 SNPS 95 86 79 260 A $ 50.500 682,573 SNS 94 90 72 256 A $ 68.880 790,420 SONC 88 86 84 258 A $ 27.250 119,253 SORC 75 93 85 253 A $ 10.380 81,207 STT 83 87 60 230 A $ 83.880 441,120 SUNW 94 97 81 272 A $ 110.380 8,291,570 SWS 76 89 95 260 A $ 26.190 113,643 SYK 88 87 66 241 A $ 54.130 252,947 SYKE 99 88 85 272 A $ 27.130 288,990 TAGS 97 96 68 261 A $ 38.000 143,757 TAN 74 85 62 221 B $ 58.130 704,723 TCAT 85 93 94 272 A $ 43.380 276,887 TIF 90 94 87 271 A $ 70.500 247,723 TJX 93 88 91 272 B $ 32.630 1,161,210 TLAB 98 93 89 280 A $ 92.130 2,689,963 TMPW 89 97 80 266 B $ 64.000 463,567 TOM 97 88 68 253 A $ 71.250 330,547 TRK 88 87 77 252 B $ 31.750 173,457 TSFW 99 97 79 275 A $ 56.940 166,460 TVGIA 96 92 79 267 A $ 30.130 205,663 UNPH 96 96 89 281 A $ 100.880 866,347 UTX 91 92 72 255 B $ 134.880 845,090 VISX 77 99 97 273 A $ 102.250 743,313 VOD 96 88 91 275 A $ 171.190 491,020 VRTS 99 96 79 274 A $ 87.310 629,577 VTSS 97 94 92 283 A $ 48.000 1,346,587 WAT 98 93 70 261 A $ 101.630 139,587 WCOM 82 95 93 270 B $ 91.500 11,152,047 WMT 87 92 90 269 B $ 94.750 3,702,803 WTSLA 91 90 91 272 A $ 35.940 166,507 XIRC 77 93 92 262 A $ 31.690 328,580 XLNX 79 96 92 267 A $ 39.060 4,404,636 XOMD 97 95 66 258 B $ 40.000 91,433 XYLN 75 97 92 264 A $ 36.440 2,982,533 YHOO 77 99 98 274 A $ 170.000 7,748,174 ZQK 96 96 68 260 A $ 40.500 143,497 - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "John Adair" Subject: [CANSLIM] Re: Tom's stock list Date: 21 Mar 1999 20:03:13 -0600 Hi cool If you have excel it is very easy to limit those 80 to what ever criteria you choose. I will look everyone up in Ibd or preferably DGO If it passes these screens do not pull the trigger until chart and volume (MMM)is right then burn a candle of skunk oil and rub your wives but for luck. Then set your exit and entrance points check the stock on a weekly pattern and then if it passes the weekly test then the daily then watch the market. Do not buy first thing in the mornings wait the the amateurs have been skinned.If you still feel lucky Jump in . As soon as you are confirmed set your stop for 10% less than you paid for the stock. Turn off your computer and go fishing. -----Original Message----- > >In a message dated 3/21/99 5:45:51 AM, you wrote: > ><meeting the basic RS/EPS test of 80/80 dropped even more, >down nearly 20% to 80. >> > >Are you planning on buying 80 stocks? > >I am interested in how you screen that list down to 4-5. > > > >- > > - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: FBNAirPlt@aol.com Subject: [CANSLIM] Acc/Dis Numbers Date: 21 Mar 1999 22:23:10 EST Here are the latest Acc/Dis numbers: Date A B C D E AB/A:E %E 3/5/99 811 2384 1428 1354 599 49% 9% 3/8/99 820 2437 1384 1356 578 50% 9% 3/9/99 865 2508 1377 1299 538 51% 8% 3/10/99 898 2472 1383 1252 567 51% 9% 3/11/99 890 2477 1350 1255 593 51% 9% 3/12/99 945 2472 1344 1208 600 52% 9% 3/15/99 977 2467 1359 1179 596 52% 9% 3/16/99 960 2449 1372 1209 577 52% 9% 3/17/99 969 2448 1357 1213 573 52% 9% 3/18/99 963 2401 1418 1165 597 51% 9% 3/19/99 960 2396 1424 1177 606 51% 9% 3/22/99 990 2423 1390 1154 603 52% 9% Spreadsheet version: Date,A,B,C,D,E,AB/A:E,%E 3/3/99,848,2394,1421,1374,564,49%,9% 3/4/99,831,2416,1417,1332,574,49%,9% 3/5/99,811,2384,1428,1354,599,49%,9% 3/8/99,820,2437,1384,1356,578,50%,9% 3/9/99,865,2508,1377,1299,538,51%,8% 3/10/99,898,2472,1383,1252,567,51%,9% 3/11/99,890,2477,1350,1255,593,51%,9% 3/12/99,945,2472,1344,1208,600,52%,9% 3/15/99,977,2467,1359,1179,596,52%,9% 3/16/99,960,2449,1372,1209,577,52%,9% 3/17/99,969,2448,1357,1213,573,52%,9% 3/18/99,963,2401,1418,1165,597,51%,9% 3/19/99,960,2396,1424,1177,606,51%,9% 3/22/99,990,2423,1390,1154,603,52%,9% Robert - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Connie Mack Rea Subject: [CANSLIM] DELL & NOVL [Connie Mack] Date: 22 Mar 1999 09:06:25 -0500 If you have any NOVL and are considering letting any go this morning, I'd hold until the news is clarified. Appears that it may get a little bump up. I sold my NOVL earlier, but will consider returning when I see what is happening this morning. I am nearly 100 percent in cash but will take a look at DELL. Still, overall, the stock looks like a no-no; however, there are a couple of points that interest me. First, it is sitting near a resistance low [one of several as it has gone lower and lower the last few days]. Were it to get around 39.625, I'd be interested in taking a few shares. The next support is 37.75. Were I not to buy at 39.625 [because the stock looks miserable on an intraday chart] and MF still was holding, I'd buy a bit at 37.75. Unless you've some experience in trading, don't do more than just nibble. Were the bad news on IBM to be coupled to bad news elsewhere in the techs, the whole sector could turn to you-know-what. Second, the MF refuses to go with price. For me, that speaks of underlying strength not seen elsewhere. If the IBM scare is not fatal, the techs will pick up. If you drew trend line across the tops and bottoms for the last three months, you should get a triangle in which the next daily price entry will absolutely fill the room at the apex. Preferably, you'd prefer that price would break out either to the up side or down side around two thirds of the way to the end. The longer price stays within the confines of the trend lines, the more ambiguous the outcome. To buy DELL now is to believe that you see some influence that will resolve the ambiguity to the upside. The strength in MF and the fact that price is sitting a resistance level is invitation enough for me to take interest. Should you buy into this reasoning, do not take your eye off the stock and do not take more than a minimum loss. For me, 39.625 will be the moment of exit. I have posted on the oils/servicers a few days ago. I still like the prospects. The site to look at is: http://osxstocks.com/Stocks/glbl1.htm Connie Mack - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Connie Mack Rea Subject: [CANSLIM] Followup on DELL and NOVL {Connie Mack] Date: 22 Mar 1999 10:59:18 -0500 DELL reached my low of lows at 37.5-,75. I have taken a small position and will be buying at 3/8s increments up to 39. NOVL did take a bump up. Would stay here. I know that three members are up almost seven points. Hold on and enjoy the ride. Connie Mack - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Connie Mack Rea Subject: [CANSLIM] Technical stuff. [Connie Mack] Date: 22 Mar 1999 11:15:07 -0500 Should you be working with DELL, or any other stock, on very short term, a pretty reliable indicator is the MACD intraday on BigCharts. E.g., the MACD has given a good turn around on DELL at 37.5 or so. Be sure you understand what the MACD is [does]. For several essays on MACD and other indicators, see this site: http://clearstation.com Connie Mack - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Dave Rubin" Subject: [CANSLIM] RE: ADOBE Date: 22 Mar 1999 11:51:13 -0500 > PageMaker, which Adobe acquired from Aldus (bought them out, if I > recall), has been QuarkExpress's chief competitor all along. PageMaker is much more lightweight than Quark and never really offered serious competition. It just isn't up to the task of large-scale publishing. Adobe will stop marketing PageMaker to high-end users and instead will push InDesign hard. > However, this field is not exploding on the scene. It is well > established, continuously evolving, very competitive, and huge. Yes, very huge. And Quark has a near monopoly. This is why they tried a hostile bid for Adobe a few months back -- they were afraid of InDesign. The system requirements are not an issue, since most Quark users already have really fast machines with gobs of RAM. It will be difficult for Adobe to penetrate the Quark market since users will be resistant to change. But if InDesign is truly leaps ahead of Quark, it may win out. Remember, when Microsoft Excel was first introduced, nobody thought it would dethrone the overwhelming market leader. But it leapfrogged Lotus 1-2-3 and before long Excel had nearly monopolized the market. We'll have to wait and see what the market thinks. ADBE is pulling back as we speak, so Friday's breakout may not hold after all... - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Tim Fisher Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Followup on DELL and NOVL {Connie Mack] Date: 22 Mar 1999 13:29:31 -0800 I find your analysis of DELL very strange. I dumped out today when it violated that support, which was rather strong, since it was tested for two weeks and not broken. According to the analysts Dell is going into a period of earnings deceleration, not exactly what one expects for the high flying techs and certainly not encouraging enough to sustain the price. IMHO the drop was inevitable following the chain of dissapointing forecasts & results from chips (INTC) to parts (MU, CSCO, IBM) to boxes (CPQ, GTW). I kick myself for not dumping the day of the earnings announcement. I think it is headed for a long base in the 30's unless some excellent news moves it up again. For me it's time to take my 20% profit and move on, although it will stay on my watch list along with the other former high flying techs - CSCO INTC and LU. I'm surprised you don't trade AOL - it's had so many 5-10 point days it's almost getting boring. (NOT!) On 07:59 AM 3/22/99 , Connie Mack Rea Said: >DELL reached my low of lows at 37.5-,75. I have taken a small position >and will be buying at 3/8s increments up to 39. > >NOVL did take a bump up. Would stay here. I know that three members >are up almost seven points. Hold on and enjoy the ride. > >Connie Mack > Tim Fisher Ore-Rock-On and Pacific Fishery Biologists WWW Sites Tim@OreRockOn.com WWW: http://OreRockOn.com See naked fish and rocks! - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Johan Van Houtven Subject: [CANSLIM] Fear/Greed Date: 22 Mar 1999 22:43:53 +0100 Network Solutions (NSOL) fell 43 1/4 to 244 3/4 after trading as high 307 1/2. Take a look at the intraday chart of NSOL for a good example of what fear and greed can do to you: http://www.tscn.com/wsc/Corporate_Snapshot.html?Timespan=10&TSym=nsol A lot of other (not all!) internets fell hard the last 45 minutes. An example of "spreading panic". Johan - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Connie Mack Rea Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Followup on DELL and NOVL {Connie Mack] Date: 22 Mar 1999 18:51:56 -0500 Tim-- Don't disagree with your comment at all--other than to say that I've traded DELL for quite a while [along with MU and NOVL]. MU and NOVL have done quite well for me. I've got a thing going with DELL. I'm pretty well situated with DELL with a couple of positions averaging me out 37.6. I said that it wasn't for the inexperienced or faint-of-heart. A bit of a bounce is in order. When it bounces, so will I. Thanks for the note. Connie Tim Fisher wrote: > I find your analysis of DELL very strange. I dumped out today when it violated > that support, which was rather strong, since it was tested for two weeks and > not broken. According to the analysts Dell is going into a period of earnings > deceleration, not exactly what one expects for the high flying techs and > certainly not encouraging enough to sustain the price. IMHO the drop was > inevitable following the chain of dissapointing forecasts & results from chips > (INTC) to parts (MU, CSCO, IBM) to boxes (CPQ, GTW). I kick myself for not > dumping the day of the earnings announcement. I think it is headed for a long > base in the 30's unless some excellent news moves it up again. For me it's time > to take my 20% profit and move on, although it will stay on my watch list along > with the other former high flying techs - CSCO INTC and LU. I'm surprised you > don't trade AOL - it's had so many 5-10 point days it's almost getting boring. > (NOT!) > > On 07:59 AM 3/22/99 , Connie Mack Rea Said: > >DELL reached my low of lows at 37.5-,75. I have taken a small position > >and will be buying at 3/8s increments up to 39. > > > >NOVL did take a bump up. Would stay here. I know that three members > >are up almost seven points. Hold on and enjoy the ride. > > > >Connie Mack > > > > Tim Fisher > Ore-Rock-On and Pacific Fishery Biologists WWW Sites > > Tim@OreRockOn.com > WWW: http://OreRockOn.com > See naked fish and rocks! > > - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: rolatzi Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Adobe Date: 22 Mar 1999 18:48:40 -0800 (PST) Peter, Did you buy it today, it was as low as 51 7/8. I'm thinking about buying it tomorrow (Tuesday). Ciao, rolatzi ---Peter Newell wrote: > > The stock showed up two days ago, and I'm still kicking myself great chart > pattern, I'd buy it if it settles a little. > > Peter Newell > www.betterbackups.com > > -----Original Message----- > From: Patrick Wahl > To: canslim@lists.xmission.com > Date: Friday, March 19, 1999 7:59 PM > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Adobe > > > From: musicant@autobahn.org (Dan Musicant) > To: canslim@lists.xmission.com > > > It's no secret that Adobe has been one of the top players in graphics > > software for years, and I'd have to characterize them as the best > > positioned player in the market with their high end industry standard > > digital format "PostScript". They are the Microsoft of the graphics > > world. That spells "L". > > Also, I got the following from a Reuters news story yesterday, and I > think this constitutes N. > > "Adobe has now strung together two strong quarters following a > reorganization begun last August that included 300 job cuts, or > about 10 percent of its work force. Sales of its Acrobat, PhotoShop > and Illustrator software paced results, while cost controls helped > boost net income." > > > > - > > > > > - > > _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: musicant@autobahn.org (Dan Musicant) Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Fear/Greed Date: 23 Mar 1999 02:54:40 GMT On Mon, 22 Mar 1999 22:43:53 +0100, you wrote: :Network Solutions (NSOL) fell 43 1/4 to 244 3/4 after trading as high = 307 :1/2.=20 : :Take a look at the intraday chart of NSOL for a good example of what = fear :and greed can do to you: : :http://www.tscn.com/wsc/Corporate_Snapshot.html?Timespan=3D10&TSym=3Dnso= l : :A lot of other (not all!) internets fell hard the last 45 minutes. An :example of "spreading panic". : : : :Johan That chart is pretty scary. Tomorrow NSOL's 2 for 1 split takes place. Here's the story: http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990322/bcr.html Dan - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Dave Cameron Subject: [CANSLIM] Greetings Date: 22 Mar 1999 22:59:20 -0600 Well... there's an innocuous header for you (on the title of this message). I was trying to think of how to start this. See... about 5 months ago, I decided that I was going to give up this trading/investing in stocks idea. I even sent a message to the group that I thought this was (and is) the best forum I've found on the internet - but I've been seriously trailing the market since my daughter (now almost 3) has wanted to spend lots of time with me (reducing my time in the market). Hence, I dropped out of investing for 5 months. OK... so what's going on. Well, I'm back, but not quite in the active mode as before. I've parceled out 1/2 hour for reading IBD before work, and 1/2 hour to scan stocks at night after she goes to bed. Then... weekends are a "play by ear". In addition, I am putting in hard stops. This will mean that I'll miss a lot of good stocks - but that's OK. I don't have to be fully invested. If it doesn't work... well, I'll find out soon. So... I'm keeping my daughter as highest priority, but investing in individual stocks as a "hour a day" time block. Anyway, good to "see" you all again. And for those who haven't yet met me... "greetings". All right.... but that wasn't what you wanted to hear. Here are my thoughts. ADBE could well be a breakout. No real CANSLIM reason not to buy. If it falls back to 49 - you're out with a small loss. If it keeps going, you're making money. In addition, a couple of other recent breakouts: I got my feet wet again with NMR. Broke out at a hair over 20 late last week. Really climbed to 25 - and is back under 22. But, still above the base high. NMR only has an EPS of 53 - but its tricky because it was a spinoff of a larger company. Other breakout is HHS. HHS was in a nice base - broke out on Friday. IBD shows an EPS and RS of over 80. Hit new high. Don't know why its not on the screening list - maybe I read something wrong. That's my read on it. I hope to continue learning and contributing. I used to spend hours on this list, with some lengthy posts (like this...). But that won't happen for a while. I've taken the pressure off by trading real small. I'm hoping it keeps the skills active until my daughter is older. I did real well before she was born - just not as well after.... Thanks for all the kind comments. Dave Cameron dfcameron@ameritech.net - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Greetings Date: 23 Mar 1999 06:13:16 -0500 Welcome back, Dave I must agree with your priorities, your daughter comes first. Maybe in a few years you can share some time together reading her IBD? Not sure which screening list you refer to, but HHS did make DGO's new high list that I snip and post. Current # are RS 83, EPS 88. Tom W stkguru@netside.net ICQ # 5568838 -----Original Message----- Well... there's an innocuous header for you (on the title of this message). I was trying to think of how to start this. See... about 5 months ago, I decided that I was going to give up this trading/investing in stocks idea. I even sent a message to the group that I thought this was (and is) the best forum I've found on the internet - but I've been seriously trailing the market since my daughter (now almost 3) has wanted to spend lots of time with me (reducing my time in the market). Hence, I dropped out of investing for 5 months. OK... so what's going on. Well, I'm back, but not quite in the active mode as before. I've parceled out 1/2 hour for reading IBD breakout is HHS. HHS was in a nice base - broke out on Friday. IBD shows an EPS and RS of over 80. Hit new high. Don't know why its not on the screening list - maybe I read something wrong. - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: TM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Greetings Date: 23 Mar 1999 04:31:53 -0800 (PST) "I've parceled out 1/2 hour for reading IBD before work, and 1/2 hour to scan stocks at night after she goes to bed." Welcome back. What do you look at in this 1/2 hour in the IBD? I'm guessing top ten, business news, market page, editorial. Do you find utility in "Where the Money is Flowing?" TM _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Russell, Ron" Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] Greetings Date: 23 Mar 1999 08:26:39 -0500 Dave, If you are referring to my "Weekly Stock List", HHS is not there because the Group RS is only 46 per DGO. Ron -----Original Message----- From: Tom Worley [mailto:stkguru@netside.net] Sent: Tuesday, March 23, 1999 6:13 AM To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Greetings Welcome back, Dave I must agree with your priorities, your daughter comes first. Maybe in a few years you can share some time together reading her IBD? Not sure which screening list you refer to, but HHS did make DGO's new high list that I snip and post. Current # are RS 83, EPS 88. Tom W stkguru@netside.net ICQ # 5568838 -----Original Message----- From: Dave Cameron To: canslim Date: Tuesday, March 23, 1999 12:01 AM Subject: [CANSLIM] Greetings Well... there's an innocuous header for you (on the title of this message). I was trying to think of how to start this. See... about 5 months ago, I decided that I was going to give up this trading/investing in stocks idea. I even sent a message to the group that I thought this was (and is) the best forum I've found on the internet - but I've been seriously trailing the market since my daughter (now almost 3) has wanted to spend lots of time with me (reducing my time in the market). Hence, I dropped out of investing for 5 months. OK... so what's going on. Well, I'm back, but not quite in the active mode as before. I've parceled out 1/2 hour for reading IBD breakout is HHS. HHS was in a nice base - broke out on Friday. IBD shows an EPS and RS of over 80. Hit new high. Don't know why its not on the screening list - maybe I read something wrong. - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Peter Newell" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Adobe Date: 23 Mar 1999 08:38:23 -0800 Not yet, noticed it's active in premarket trading today. I'm keeping my eye on it. Peter -----Original Message----- > >Peter, > >Did you buy it today, it was as low as 51 7/8. I'm thinking about >buying it tomorrow (Tuesday). >Ciao, >rolatzi > > >---Peter Newell wrote: >> >> The stock showed up two days ago, and I'm still kicking myself great >chart >> pattern, I'd buy it if it settles a little. >> >> Peter Newell >> www.betterbackups.com >> >> -----Original Message----- >> From: Patrick Wahl >> To: canslim@lists.xmission.com >> Date: Friday, March 19, 1999 7:59 PM >> Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Adobe >> >> >> From: musicant@autobahn.org (Dan Musicant) >> To: canslim@lists.xmission.com >> >> > It's no secret that Adobe has been one of the top players in >graphics >> > software for years, and I'd have to characterize them as the best >> > positioned player in the market with their high end industry >standard >> > digital format "PostScript". They are the Microsoft of the graphics >> > world. That spells "L". >> >> Also, I got the following from a Reuters news story yesterday, and I >> think this constitutes N. >> >> "Adobe has now strung together two strong quarters following a >> reorganization begun last August that included 300 job cuts, or >> about 10 percent of its work force. Sales of its Acrobat, PhotoShop >> and Illustrator software paced results, while cost controls helped >> boost net income." >> >> >> >> - >> >> >> >> >> - >> >> > >_________________________________________________________ >DO YOU YAHOO!? >Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com > > >- > > - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Peter Newell" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Greetings Date: 23 Mar 1999 08:44:04 -0800 Dave, Welcome back. Teach your daughter to read charts my two 6 and 8 have excellent track records. My youngest glanced at CTL and WAT a few months ago and said WOW those look good. There're still going up. The oldest likes HD and LLY. Peter Newell >Well... there's an innocuous header for you (on the title of this >message). I was trying to think of how to start this. See... >about 5 months ago, I decided that I was going to give up this >trading/investing in stocks idea. I even sent a message to the >group that I thought this was (and is) the best forum I've found >on the internet - but I've been seriously trailing the market >since my daughter (now almost 3) has wanted to spend lots of time >with me (reducing my time in the market). Hence, I dropped out >of investing for 5 months. - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Connie Mack Rea Subject: [CANSLIM] Trendlines [the Psychotic type] [Connie Mack] Date: 23 Mar 1999 09:58:46 -0500 A modestly interesting piece on trendlines can be seen at: http://www.trading-ideas.com/ Look at the March 21 article "Technical Analysis." At the end of the article there is a bibliography with several good readings on technical indicators. Learn to navigate this site. Has some good technical items and stock ideas along with MoneyFlow. MU [and AT&T] has showed good MF recently; there is an article in the March 21 entry. Connie Mack - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: thy@worldnet.att.net Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Trendlines [the Psychotic type] [Connie Mack] Date: 23 Mar 1999 20:21:25 -0800 Thank You Connie for directing to a very good side. I see MoneyFlow on my charts and Big Charts as going down(negative) for T & MU. Am I missing something here ? Also how it is determined that money flow is thru institutions or individuals ? Your guidance would be appreicated. Talib At 09:58 AM 3/23/99 -0500, you wrote: >A modestly interesting piece on trendlines can be seen at: > > http://www.trading-ideas.com/ > >Look at the March 21 article "Technical Analysis." > >At the end of the article there is a bibliography with several good >readings on technical indicators. > >Learn to navigate this site. Has some good technical items and stock >ideas along with MoneyFlow. MU [and AT&T] has showed good MF recently; >there is an article in the March 21 entry. > >Connie Mack > > >- > > - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: mckeen@ix.netcom.com Subject: [CANSLIM] Greetings Date: 24 Mar 1999 06:25:16 -0600 (CST) Dave, Welcome back! Really, really good to know we'll be hearing from you occasionally. Thanks for your message. Regards, Mary - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: musicant@autobahn.org (Dan Musicant) Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Greetings Date: 24 Mar 1999 12:31:00 GMT Hi Dave, Good luck in your tackling equity investing directly (non-fund) again. I seem to remember your recent lack of success being associated with an attachment to small caps over large caps. May I suggest you abandon that until the small caps revive, whenever that is. It may not be for 5 years, who knows? Dan - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Dave Cameron Subject: [CANSLIM] 1/2 hour of IBD Date: 24 Mar 1999 06:57:43 -0600 In my half-hour of IBD, I look at the following: 1. Front Page - often read one of the "articles". 2. U.S. Economy or Trends (occasionally). 3. Bus & Econ only if something catches my eye. 4. Leaders & Success only if the topic interests me. 5. Investor's Corner 6. The New America - only if there is a company on my watch list. 7. Where the Big Money's Flowing (always). 8. A look at the stocks I own or am watching. I generally don't read the editorials, or the computer & tech stuff, nor a lot of the international news. I had to set some priorities. On weekends only I look at the Mutual Fund section. Dave - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Johan Van Houtven Subject: [CANSLIM] State of the 'M' (NASDAQ) Date: 24 Mar 1999 14:00:46 +0100 High volume reversal on Friday 19/3. It wasn't a "clear" signal since it was a triple witching day. And on such a day the volume can be abnormally high. We did break a short term trendline (connecting lows of 03/03, 03/15 and 03/18) that day. Next trading day Monday, 03/22, down on lower volume. After a potential top. This can be normal. Many internet leaders where down hard in the last hour of trading on Monday 03/22. On Tuesday, 03/23 down hard on higher volume. This confirms a potential top. We also dropped back below the middle point of the 'W'. Investor sentiment has been very bullish for a LONG time now. No matter which index chart I look at, things look bearish to me for now. Just for fun: First halt: 2150 area. Max. downside short term: 2030 area. P.S.: Sorry for interrupting the 'silence' here... Johan - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Dave Cameron Subject: [CANSLIM] Size of company Date: 24 Mar 1999 07:11:41 -0600 One poster (Dan Musicant) remembered that one of the reasons I did well prior to my daughter's birth, but not so well after is my preference for small caps. I decided this is important enough to post a well-thought out message. I am no longer convinced that the size of the company makes a big difference for the short-term. My earliest successes were all with small caps. However, my most recent success was a large cap. I should point out that in both my edition of HTMMIS and the O'Neil tapes that I have, WON mentions (both in the 'S' and the 'I' part) a couple of things. He says that you want the stock to be big enough to have institutional sponsorship, but not so big that it can't move a lot. He also says that most of his biggest successes were those with less than 30 million shares outstanding. He goes on to say that you can make money in the bigger caps, but you have to be more patient. I've heard and read WON's advice on this 20+ times. In addition, David Ryan says (on the same tapes) that he's had his best success with stocks that have between 5 and 20% institutional sponsorship. This usually is more common in small caps than big caps. However, Dan is correct. I would have done better just plopping all my money into the 5 biggest stocks in the S&P 500 over the last 3 years than any other strategy. I suspect this can't continue indefinitely. So, I am buying and selling regardless of size. But, I will have faster exit points on the upside for big caps than small caps. I believe that my best success at CANSLIM was in '93-'95 when out of 10 stocks, 5 would go down. I'd make about 10% on 4. Then the 10th stock would double. That "10th" stock was always a small cap - so I felt this was confirming O'Neil's and Ryan's experience. In the past couple of years, had I bought any, the large cap would have been the doubler. To me, this seriously degrades 'I' and 'S'. So forget MANSLIC, make it MANLCSI ;-) Finally, Dan, thanks for the suggestion. Any approach to the market has to be flexible - but I don't think that what we are practicing is CANSLIM when we buy the DELL, MSFT, etc. of the world... maybe CANLIM. Dave - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Connie Mack Rea Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Trendlines [the Psychotic type] [Connie Mack] Date: 24 Mar 1999 09:03:46 -0500 Morning Talib-- [Answer to your first point.] Believe I was talking about DELL when I said that MF was holding up [positive divergence] against price decline. [Answer to second point.] On BC, there is no way to distinguish between large and small MF. However, there is on http://www.trading-ideas.com where large blocks of MF are distinguished. Too, somewhere I have seen another site that distinguished between large and small blocks. I'm thinking. Will post when I recall. Thanks for the note. Connie thy@worldnet.att.net wrote: > Thank You Connie for directing to a very good side. > > I see MoneyFlow on my charts and Big Charts as going down(negative) for T & > MU. Am I missing something here ? Also how it is determined that money flow > is thru institutions or individuals ? > > Your guidance would be appreicated. > > Talib > > At 09:58 AM 3/23/99 -0500, you wrote: > >A modestly interesting piece on trendlines can be seen at: > > > > http://www.trading-ideas.com/ > > > >Look at the March 21 article "Technical Analysis." > > > >At the end of the article there is a bibliography with several good > >readings on technical indicators. > > > >Learn to navigate this site. Has some good technical items and stock > >ideas along with MoneyFlow. MU [and AT&T] has showed good MF recently; > >there is an article in the March 21 entry. > > > >Connie Mack > > > > > >- > > > > > > - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Connie Mack Rea Subject: [CANSLIM] Canslim and a down market. [Connie Mack] Date: 24 Mar 1999 10:57:55 -0500 The near disappearance of mail implies that the present market stanches Canslim followers. Now might be a good time to re-examine Canslim criteria. Is there a reason why Canslim is not attuned to declining markets? Perhaps its conjunction with some other criteria would improve performance. To me, timing has always been a place where improvement might lie. Timing, however, is primary to any system. What makes timing so essential is that Canslim, by its fundamental nature, is late to enter and late to exit. To say this is not to set it aside for criticism. All long term strategies are probably so affected. Does the members' reticence imply that they are incurring losses for which they have no short term strategy available to protect gains or, at least, to minimize losses? About the only event that reduces comment on financial sites is loss of capital. That this is so implies that trading and investing has a large and emotional side. A stock that has a classic base pattern along with positive divergence in MF and OBV is UPR. Remember that, as a trader, I am indifferent to most criteria that is most importance to Canslim. UPR just happens to be a stock in which I see some chance to profit. Remember, too, that on occasion a stock that meets my criteria appears in conjunction with one meeting Canslim's. UPR might be called a conservative trader's stock. Others, I am sure, don't see it as a trading stock at all; they may see it as a good investment long term. It does not have the rocket volatility of, say, DELL or MU, which I trade most. By my indicators [i.e., my 3/7/10 EMA, etc.], say it is a bit late to get an early short term profit , but the strength of this classic basing pattern ought to be good for swing trading [3 to 10 days] or what might be called "indicator trading." Indicator trading does not forbid day trading or swing trading, but one enters a trade most often using short term indicators then switches to longer term [a trader's longer term] for exit. There's no reason why one can't enter with a short term indicator and switch to a Canslim long term. [One can err here by using such a long term indicator that profits are quickly lost--as in the present market.] This indicator strategy, which I have used, carries an inherent holding aspect that day trading need not, but may, have. I.e., I can enter a day trade with the intent of using rocket indicator settings and rocket exit settings. Such practice may get me in and out in an hour or a day. But I have no qualms about holding overnight--though pure day traders find the practice anathema. If a price close seems strong [along with the market], I hold. The axiom is this: Cut losses short. Let profits run. A beautiful axiom, but one that is amenable to several readings. One reading is that above: Enter using rocket indicator settings and exit using much relaxed settings. How one determines these different settings is personal. E.g., I often use a MACD of 8/17/9 to buy and 12/25/9 to sell. Also, some stocks just seem to have their own adherence for certain settings. When I say that NOVL and I have been friends for a long time, I am saying, in part, that I jigger with my settings when buying and selling. One member thought that I had a strange reading on DELL [I think]. Probably so. But DELL and I are almost friends. One might think that the way to play DELL, or MU, in this market would be to short. There is, however, another way to play a stock. Know it well enough to play it long in a down market. Trade with the intent of a point or less rather than going short. You have to be friends with a stock to play long in a declining market. Connie - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Tim Fisher Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Canslim and a down market. [Connie Mack] Date: 24 Mar 1999 08:28:51 -0800 Speaking for myself, I was at an all-time high on my holdings on Friday, so I do not see a significant "down market" developing quite yet. I have a cushion of about 5% of my capital which I am prepared to lose while things shake out, and IMHO it's about time the DOW caught up with reality (or the NASDAQ, whichever you believe) and stopped making new highs for no good reason. The only holding that hit my stops was DELL, and the rest are far above support levels, esp. AOL which could come down another 30 or so before it hits any real support. So I'm not worried about this market, but of course having had 1.5 market top signals (or two, depending on how you look at it), I'm not buying anything with my cash. I cashed out on some 401k funds, miraculously at or very near their highs, and will hold the cash until the next buy signal. As for DELL I think it is neither a long or a short right now. If you look at the charts of DELL INTC CSCO LU you see they are remarkably similar, all below their 50 dma's but not deviating significantly from them (except DELL & I attribute that to panic & think it's going to get back up to the 50 and soon), and I don't think there is either up or downside potential to any of them until the chip/board/box picture clears up. P.S. I haven't posted my Killer CASLI scan results because with the exception of HH they are all performing miserably or are coming down out of breakouts. When I get the time I'm going to loosen the scan criteria and put a floor of 30 million shares out on it since I am totally convinced that small caps have no hope of recovering back to CANSLIM levels in intermediate term. Also I haven't seen boo for comment on the wonderful A/D data being posted to the group, don't have your name handy but thanks for the effort, it has convinced me of the severe lack of breadth of this latest advance like no other commentary/analysis. Gotta go freeze at the beach now, bye! At 10:57 AM 3/24/99 -0500, you wrote: >The near disappearance of mail implies that the present market stanches >Canslim followers. Now might be a good time to re-examine Canslim >criteria. Is there a reason why Canslim is not attuned to declining >markets? Perhaps its conjunction with some other criteria would improve >performance. > >To me, timing has always been a place where improvement might lie. >Timing, however, is primary to any system. What makes timing so >essential is that Canslim, by its fundamental nature, is late to enter >and late to exit. To say this is not to set it aside for criticism. >All long term strategies are probably so affected. > >Does the members' reticence imply that they are incurring losses for >which they have no short term strategy available to protect gains or, at >least, to minimize losses? About the only event that reduces comment >on financial sites is loss of capital. That this is so implies that >trading and investing has a large and emotional side. > >A stock that has a classic base pattern along with positive divergence >in MF and OBV is UPR. Remember that, as a trader, I am indifferent to >most criteria that is most importance to Canslim. UPR just happens to >be a stock in which I see some chance to profit. Remember, too, that on >occasion a stock that meets my criteria appears in conjunction with one >meeting Canslim's. > >UPR might be called a conservative trader's stock. Others, I am sure, >don't see it as a trading stock at all; they may see it as a good >investment long term. It does not have the rocket volatility of, say, >DELL or MU, which I trade most. By my indicators [i.e., my 3/7/10 EMA, >etc.], say it is a bit late to get an early short term profit , but the >strength of this classic basing pattern ought to be good for swing >trading [3 to 10 days] or what might be called "indicator trading." >Indicator trading does not forbid day trading or swing trading, but one >enters a trade most often using short term indicators then switches to >longer term [a trader's longer term] for exit. There's no reason why one >can't enter with a short term indicator and switch to a Canslim long >term. [One can err here by using such a long term indicator that >profits are quickly lost--as in the present market.] > >This indicator strategy, which I have used, carries an inherent holding >aspect that day trading need not, but may, have. I.e., I can enter a >day trade with the intent of using rocket indicator settings and rocket >exit settings. Such practice may get me in and out in an hour or a >day. But I have no qualms about holding overnight--though pure day >traders find the practice anathema. If a price close seems strong >[along with the market], I hold. > >The axiom is this: Cut losses short. Let profits run. A beautiful >axiom, but one that is amenable to several readings. One reading is >that above: Enter using rocket indicator settings and exit using much >relaxed settings. How one determines these different settings is >personal. E.g., I often use a MACD of 8/17/9 to buy and 12/25/9 to >sell. Also, some stocks just seem to have their own adherence for >certain settings. When I say that NOVL and I have been friends for a >long time, I am saying, in part, that I jigger with my settings when >buying and selling. > >One member thought that I had a strange reading on DELL [I think]. >Probably so. But DELL and I are almost friends. One might think that >the way to play DELL, or MU, in this market would be to short. There >is, however, another way to play a stock. Know it well enough to play >it long in a down market. Trade with the intent of a point or less >rather than going short. You have to be friends with a stock to play >long in a declining market. > >Connie > Tim Fisher, 1995 President, Pacific Fishery Biologists Ore-ROCK-On Rockhounding Web Site PFB Information mailto:tim@OreRockOn.com WWW http://OreRockOn.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: CA011667@aol.com Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Canslim and a down market. [Connie Mack] Date: 24 Mar 1999 15:26:35 EST Dear Connie, I wrote you a couple a weeks ago for a tech analysis on CANSLIM canadate CMED EPS 99 RS 83. The stock has been basing for about 8 weeks and seems to have good support at 11.00. The stock was pressured yesterday as two institutions swaped shares, the block consisted of 550,000.It has held support today on low volume.This is my largest holding and I would like to keep it that way as they continue to revise estimates upward and they have a new product ready for FDA approval.I know this is a tough market for small caps, but The tide will have to turn soon.Can you please give me your current tech breakdown.Thanks for your time.Chris. - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Connie Mack Rea Subject: [CANSLIM] DELL ;Connie Mack] Date: 24 Mar 1999 15:57:43 -0500 I have traded DELL twice today. I will carry my positions overnight. Connie - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Marc Laniado" Subject: [CANSLIM] ADBE and Market action Date: 24 Mar 1999 20:34:18 -0000 Is ADBE above 5-10% from its base? Too late to buy?? OK still? Is the Market inappropriate to buy now??? "Adobe is hoping a restructuring effort and the impending introduction of its InDesign publishing package (labeled a "Quark-killer" by industry observers) will spur sales and accelerate its product growth track record" Is this the 'N' Marc Marc E Laniado marclaniado@msn.com begin 666 Marc Elie Laniado.vcf M0D5'24XZ5D-!4D0-"DXZ3&%N:6%D;SM-87)C.T5L:64-"D9..DUA Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Canslim and a down market. [Connie Mack] Date: 24 Mar 1999 16:41:08 -0500 Evening Chris-- Because you wrote me through the site, I guess you did not intend me to answer privately. CMED is a strange looking stock. I can't find a single precise indicator [3/7/10 EMA, Stochastic, etc.] that looks decent. Yet, I see that MF and OBV [gross indicators] have positive divergence over the last few months; just the last few days have they broken down. Technically, there is nothing short term deserving praise. That you may believe, and perhaps even be right, that 11 is support, I worry that you've so much allotted to a single stock. Am I right to infer that you're looking for a reason to buy more CMED? Wait for the 3/7/10 EMA, SloSto, and MACD to turn before you add to your position. Thanks for the mail. Connie CA011667@aol.com wrote: > Dear Connie, > > I wrote you a couple a weeks ago for a tech analysis on CANSLIM canadate CMED > EPS 99 RS 83. The stock has been basing for about 8 weeks and seems to have > good support at 11.00. The stock was pressured yesterday as two institutions > swaped shares, the block consisted of 550,000.It has held support today on low > volume.This is my largest holding and I would like to keep it that way as they > continue to revise estimates upward and they have a new product ready for FDA > approval.I know this is a tough market for small caps, but The tide will have > to turn soon.Can you please give me your current tech breakdown.Thanks for > your time.Chris. > > - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Canslim and a down market. [Connie Mack] Date: 24 Mar 1999 20:12:37 -0500 Hi Connie, Over the years, I have seen a number of brokers attempt to apply CANSLIM in what they perceived as a bear mkt, or even in a true bear mkt. By and large, they were usually wrong in anything but a true bear mkt extended in duration to the point that everyone accepted it really was a bear mkt. In both cases they were attempting to short stocks using a reverse mirror of CANSLIM. On the other hand, I have never found CANSLIM to be practical for either remaining fully invested all the time, or for short term trading. For those that seek that, they must choose the times carefully that they use CANSLIM, and have other trading or investing systems ready for other mkt conditions. Right now is not a favorable CANSLIM environment, IMHO. Breadth is sorely lacking, and volatility is still way too high. You are correct, CANSLIM is certainly "late to enter and late to exit", at least by standards of someone like yourself who is day trading. One of the keys to CANSLIM is that you enter or exit only after there is some confirmation of the correct entry/exit (e.g. a breakout on low volume doesn't confirm the entry, by the time the volume may confirm, the price may have already surpassed an upper price limit). One of the best arenas historically for me to apply CANSLIM has been the small caps. I beat the odds in 1998 even when the small caps were doing poorly. I am paying my dues in 1999, when they are doing even worse. I think part of the problem is that I stayed invested even when it really wasn't a good "CANSLIM" market, and esp after my work hours were so long that I couldn't dedicate the time and energy to doing my homework. Any member without a "selling strategy" needs to go back and read and study HTMMIS, there are far more rules on when to sell than there are on when to buy. And I'm the guiltiest of the guilty in this regard, now, if only I can find some time to reread HTMMIS again. Tom W stkguru@netside.net ICQ # 5568838 -----Original Message----- The near disappearance of mail implies that the present market stanches Canslim followers. Now might be a good time to re-examine Canslim criteria. Is there a reason why Canslim is not attuned to declining markets? Perhaps its conjunction with some other criteria would improve performance. To me, timing has always been a place where improvement might lie. Timing, however, is primary to any system. What makes timing so essential is that Canslim, by its fundamental nature, is late to enter and late to exit. To say this is not to set it aside for criticism. All long term strategies are probably so affected. Does the members' reticence imply that they are incurring losses for which they have no short term strategy available to protect gains or, at least, to minimize losses - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: [CANSLIM] Today's Durable Goods Report Date: 24 Mar 1999 20:19:09 -0500 Whoa, big drop, biggest in seven years. Even excluding the volatile Transportation sector, still a big drop below expectations. And January's report was also revised slightly lower. Full report below for those interested in reading. While one report, or even one month's worth of reports, doesn't set any trend, this is an important report on the manufacturing sector, esp when there are so many concerns over failing profitability. Tom W stkguru@netside.net ICQ # 5568838 08:35 AM ET 03/24/99 U.S. durable goods fall sharply in February WASHINGTON, March 24 (Reuters) - Orders for U.S. durable goods took their biggest tumble in more than seven years in February led by weak airplane demand, the government said on Wednesday, casting doubt on recent hints of a recovery in the battered manufacturing sector. Orders for sturdy items like planes, cars and machinery fell 5.0 percent to $191.83 billion, the Commerce Department reported. That followed a 3.3 percent rise in January that was previously reported as a 3.6 percent increase. Much of the latest month's weakness stemmed from the transpnt after rising 13.5 percent in January. Excluding the typically volatile transportation sector, durable goods orders declined 1.7 percent in February after a 0.1 percent rise in January. February's drop in overall orders broke a three-month string of increases and marked the steepest decline since orders fell 6.5 percent in December 1991. U.S. economists in a Reuters survey had expected February orders to fall by 2 percent, but predicted an increase of 0.3 percent excluding the transportation sector. ((Washington newsroom, +1 202 898-8310, fax +1 202 898-8383, washington.economic.newsroom@reuters.com) ) - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Davarm@aol.com Subject: [CANSLIM] Pitbull Investor Date: 24 Mar 1999 20:28:20 EST I've seen the Pitbull investor mentioned a couple of times on the list, but I was wondering if anybody has any dirct experience with Mr. Ford's methodology. I just ordered the manual (possibly against my better judgement), and would be curious to know other opinions. Dave Armstrong davarm@aol.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Patrick Wahl" Subject: [CANSLIM] A few stocks Date: 24 Mar 1999 20:28:17 -0800 Here are a few stocks that have held up very well in the recent volatility, in case anyone needs a few for a watch list. All 4 of these are in a base at the moment, and hardly twitched in the last few weeks. Carnival Cruise Line (CCL) Capital One Financial (COF) Vitesse (VTSS) Office Depot (ODP) - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Patrick Wahl" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] ADBE and Market action Date: 24 Mar 1999 20:28:17 -0800 > Is ADBE above 5-10% from its base? Too late to buy?? OK still? > Is the Market inappropriate to buy now??? I think Adobe is probably 6-8% above its base, which is about as far from the buy point as you want to go. The good thing is that of the last 4 days, the two up days had heavy volume, the two down days had lower volume. The recent market environment is also a concern. A couple of market gurus recently expressed continued optimism about the market, so perhaps this is just a pause, and things will continue to be favorable for stocks. I'm afraid this isn't a lot of help, I personally am positive on Adobe, think it is still within a buy zone. - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: rolatzi Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Canslim and a down market. [Connie Mack] Date: 24 Mar 1999 19:36:21 -0800 (PST) Cris, If I may step in and give my HO, technically, the stock doesn't look very healthy. It just broke below its 50d MA two days ago ago, its 17d MA is pointing down, its 3d MA crossed over its 7 and 12d MA two days ago, its MACD is zero and decreasing. Todya it was down on very high volume. All of these signs are negative ones technically. Ciao,, Rich --- CA011667@aol.com wrote: > Dear Connie, > > I wrote you a couple a weeks ago for a tech analysis on CANSLIM > canadate CMED > EPS 99 RS 83. The stock has been basing for about 8 weeks and > seems to have > good support at 11.00. The stock was pressured yesterday as two > institutions > swaped shares, the block consisted of 550,000.It has held > support today on low > volume.This is my largest holding and I would like to keep it > that way as they > continue to revise estimates upward and they have a new product > ready for FDA > approval.I know this is a tough market for small caps, but The > tide will have > to turn soon.Can you please give me your current tech > breakdown.Thanks for > your time.Chris. > > - > > _________________________________________________________ Do You Yahoo!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Dave Cameron Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] ADBE and Market action Date: 24 Mar 1999 22:53:59 -0600 Marc Laniado wrote: > > Is ADBE above 5-10% from its base? Too late to buy?? OK still? > Is the Market inappropriate to buy now??? 10% would be 55 or so. I think it is not too late to buy - your downside is about 8%. Dave - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "David S. Pinhasik" Subject: [CANSLIM] ctl Date: 25 Mar 1999 10:52:40 +0300 CTL was mentioned here recently as a good looking pick. They recently beat estimates and were added to the S&P 500. Yesterday it fell over 5% on 17X ADV. Yahoo did not have any newsbits. Any ideas what happened? - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Peter Newell" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] ctl Date: 25 Mar 1999 08:48:28 -0800 It made the SP500 may explain the volume, otherwise I'd start selling. Seems that shooting stocks with good reports is in vogue now to. CTL is still within its base. I'd look for a bounce. Peter Newell ----------------- Automated daily backups http://www.betterbackups.com -----Original Message----- >CTL was mentioned here recently as a good looking pick. They recently beat >estimates and were added to the S&P 500. >Yesterday it fell over 5% on 17X ADV. >Yahoo did not have any newsbits. >Any ideas what happened? > > > >- > > - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Peter Newell" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] ADBE and Market action Date: 25 Mar 1999 08:50:09 -0800 ADBE did a nice bounce right back to the top of the base with volume. Peter Newell ------------------ Automated Daily Backups http://www.betterbackups.com ------------------ -----Original Message----- >Marc Laniado wrote: >> >> Is ADBE above 5-10% from its base? Too late to buy?? OK still? >> Is the Market inappropriate to buy now??? > >10% would be 55 or so. I think it is not too late to buy - your >downside is about 8%. > >Dave > >- > > - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "David S. Pinhasik" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] ctl Date: 25 Mar 1999 15:58:00 +0300 No one answered this yet, so I will change the question. Is there anything here that made it a poor choice. I would like to learn from my mistakes. ----- Original Message ----- Sent: Thursday, March 25, 1999 10:52 AM >CTL was mentioned here recently as a good looking pick. They recently beat >estimates and were added to the S&P 500. >Yesterday it fell over 5% on 17X ADV. >Yahoo did not have any newsbits. >Any ideas what happened? > > > >- > - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Peter Newell" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] ctl Date: 25 Mar 1999 09:07:29 -0800 David, They announced earnings and were added to the SP500 on the same day. I would hold on, not sure of your buy price but it's above the base and it's not unusual for a stock to day a 1-2 day hit when earnings come out. If the stock had not been added to the SP500 it'd be gone from my holdings. Also, this stock is mentioned constantly by IBD so I think your selection is solid. If it breaks the base I'd be selling via canslim rules. Peter Newell -----Original Message----- >No one answered this yet, so I will change the question. >Is there anything here that made it a poor choice. I would like to learn >from my mistakes. > >----- Original Message ----- >From: David S. Pinhasik >To: >Sent: Thursday, March 25, 1999 10:52 AM >Subject: [CANSLIM] ctl > > >>CTL was mentioned here recently as a good looking pick. They recently beat >>estimates and were added to the S&P 500. >>Yesterday it fell over 5% on 17X ADV. >>Yahoo did not have any newsbits. >>Any ideas what happened? >> >> >> >>- >> > > > >- > > - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: DS Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] ctl Date: 25 Mar 1999 08:31:16 -0600 >>No one answered this yet, so I will change the question. Is there anything here that made it a poor choice. I would like to learn from my mistakes.<< David, CTL came out of its base and closed on the high of the day on 3/18. This was positive. In hindsight, the only thing I see that should have made you cautious was volume. Ideally, you want to see HUGE volume as a stock moves out of its base. If a stock doesn't trade AT LEAST 100% of the 30 day ADV on the day it breaks out there is lack of buying intensity. CTL's ADV before yesterday's big volume was 410,000. It traded 700,000 on 3/18, the day it moved into new high ground. To me this would have been concerning. Otherwise, technically speaking, you bought a good stock and it fell back into its base. You win some....you lose some. Good Trading, DSquires - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "David S. Pinhasik" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] ctl Date: 25 Mar 1999 16:35:44 +0300 Thanks. But according to Yahoo, the ADV was 300k. I don't how many days in the average though. ----- Original Message ----- Sent: Thursday, March 25, 1999 5:31 PM > >>>No one answered this yet, so I will change the question. >Is there anything here that made it a poor choice. I would like to learn >from my mistakes.<< > >David, > >CTL came out of its base and closed on the high of the day on 3/18. This >was positive. In hindsight, the only thing I see that should have made >you cautious was volume. Ideally, you want to see HUGE volume as a stock >moves out of its base. If a stock doesn't trade AT LEAST 100% of the 30 >day ADV on the day it breaks out there is lack of buying intensity. >CTL's ADV before yesterday's big volume was 410,000. It traded 700,000 >on 3/18, the day it moved into new high ground. To me this would have >been concerning. Otherwise, technically speaking, you bought a good >stock and it fell back into its base. You win some....you lose some. > >Good Trading, > >DSquires > >- > - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "David S. Pinhasik" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] ctl Date: 25 Mar 1999 16:36:30 +0300 Thanks. But according to Yahoo, the ADV was 300k. I don't how many days in the average though. Oh well... ----- Original Message ----- Sent: Thursday, March 25, 1999 5:31 PM > >>>No one answered this yet, so I will change the question. >Is there anything here that made it a poor choice. I would like to learn >from my mistakes.<< > >David, > >CTL came out of its base and closed on the high of the day on 3/18. This >was positive. In hindsight, the only thing I see that should have made >you cautious was volume. Ideally, you want to see HUGE volume as a stock >moves out of its base. If a stock doesn't trade AT LEAST 100% of the 30 >day ADV on the day it breaks out there is lack of buying intensity. >CTL's ADV before yesterday's big volume was 410,000. It traded 700,000 >on 3/18, the day it moved into new high ground. To me this would have >been concerning. Otherwise, technically speaking, you bought a good >stock and it fell back into its base. You win some....you lose some. > >Good Trading, > >DSquires > >- > - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: DS Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] ctl Date: 25 Mar 1999 08:53:54 -0600 >>Thanks. But according to Yahoo, the ADV was 300k. I don't how many days in the average though.<< It seems you made all the right moves with the knowlegde you had at the time. If I thought the ADV was 300,000 I would have had no resevations about holding the stock. YHOO may be using a 50 day ADV. I personally use a 30 day and 10 day ADV that is computed by my charting software. DSquires - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: TM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Today's Durable Goods Report Tom Date: 24 Mar 1999 20:20:23 -0800 (PST) Tom, This article from Dismalscientist.com may partially explain why. Sounds like alot of people are maxxed out. Household Debt Burden Follows the Market Analysis by Mark Zandi Written March 22, 1999 The stock market is not the only thing hitting record highs. The household debt burden, or the ratio of total household liabilities to disposable income, rose to a new record high of 101% according to the Federal Reserve Board (see Chart). Household debt surpassed income for the first time in the third quarter of last year. At the start of the 1990's, the debt burden was closer to 85% and at the start of the 1980's it was near 70%. Household borrowing is accelerating rapidly. At its current year-over-year rate of 9%, household liabilities are expanding as quickly as they have since the start of the decade and over twice the rate of growth in disposable income. High and recently rising household debt burdens have clearly not constrained consumer spending. Consumers are aggressively buying everything from vehicles to homes. One of the reasons why is that household debt service burdens, or the ratio of interest and principal payments to disposable income, has not risen along with the household debt burden. It has remained close to 17% of income for much of the past over two years. The reason that household debt burdens have risen so significantly, but debt service burdens have not is until recently lower interest rates. Fixed mortgage rates, for example, averaged well below 7% last year, compared to over 7.5% in 1997 and closer to 8% throughout much of the mid-1990's. Borrowing costs on credit cards, auto loans and other personal loans have also fallen similarly. Debt service burdens have also not risen as households have been substituting mortgage debt for consumer installment debt through mortgage refinancings and home equity borrowing. Mortgage debt has a longer maturity and a lower interest rate than most consumer installment debt. Household debt service burdens will soon begin to rise, however, along with the rise in debt burdens. Interest rates have moved higher in recent weeks, particularly for fixed rate mortgages. This has significantly slowed the soaring mortgage refinancing market. Not only are new household borrowers paying more for the debt they are taking down, but households with existing debt are now finding it more difficult to substitute mortgage for other higher-cost debt. Consumers will soon rein in their robust spending even if stock prices continue to move higher. The effective tax cut consumers got last year from falling energy, agriculture and import prices has already been largely spent. Moreover, oil prices are up, ag prices have firmed, and with a more stable dollar, import prices are no longer falling rapidly. Consumers have will also have to soon struggle with rising debt service burdens. " TM > Whoa, big drop, biggest in seven years. Even excluding the > volatile Transportation sector, still a big drop below > expectations. And January's report was also revised slightly > lower. Full report below for those interested in reading. > > While one report, or even one month's worth of reports, > doesn't set any trend, this is an important report on the > manufacturing sector, esp when there are so many concerns > over failing profitability. > > Tom W > stkguru@netside.net > ICQ # 5568838 > > 08:35 AM ET 03/24/99 > > U.S. durable goods fall sharply in February > > WASHINGTON, March 24 (Reuters) - Orders for U.S. durable > goods took their biggest tumble in more than seven years in > February led by weak airplane demand, the government said on > Wednesday, casting doubt on recent hints of a recovery in > the > battered manufacturing sector. > Orders for sturdy items like planes, cars and machinery > fell 5.0 percent to $191.83 billion, the Commerce Department > reported. That followed a 3.3 percent rise in January that > was > previously reported as a 3.6 percent increase. > Much of the latest month's weakness stemmed from the > transpnt after rising 13.5 percent in January. > Excluding the typically volatile transportation sector, > durable goods orders declined 1.7 percent in February after > a > 0.1 percent rise in January. > February's drop in overall orders broke a three-month > string of increases and marked the steepest decline since > orders fell 6.5 percent in December 1991. > U.S. economists in a Reuters survey had expected > February > orders to fall by 2 percent, but predicted an increase of > 0.3 > percent excluding the transportation sector. > ((Washington newsroom, +1 202 898-8310, fax +1 202 > 898-8383, > washington.economic.newsroom@reuters.com) > ) > > > > - > > _________________________________________________________ Do You Yahoo!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: dbphoenix Subject: [CANSLIM] Re: Size of company Date: 25 Mar 1999 06:20:33 -0800 (PST) Re company size and changes in canslim, you may be interested in a couple of posts I made elsewhere: <> O'Neil's in a tough spot. Canslim was originally developed around small cap stocks - small float, not much fund interest, high mgmt ownership, steady growth over several quarters (preferably several years), etc. But PCs, the Internet, the explosion in funds (particularly index funds), the huge increase in the number of people saving for retirement (baby boomers reaching their 50s), online trading, inexpensive charting and scanning software, and, eventually, daytrading, changed everything. Quite frankly, I don't think even he understands how. If he did, he wouldn't be so far behind in establishing an Internet presence. He just doesn't seem to grasp that virtually everything that IBD has in it is available for free on the Net. This doesn't mean that canslim is worthless. But it can no longer be followed blindly. To go into all the details of how it should be adapted would require a post far longer than this. But the essentials of canslim are still worth learning. >From the fundamental side, find strong companies that are the leaders in their respective industries and which have strong earnings, sales, and profit margin growth. >From the technical side, buy them only when they are emerging from constructive chart patterns during periods of group and market strength. >From the personal growth side, develop the discipline and the objectivity to plan your trades (even if those "trades" are for months) and to trade your plan. As long as you don't get bogged down in details, most of HTMMIS still applies. Markets are pretty much the same now as they were a hundred years ago because markets are transactions among buyers and sellers and they are just as fearful and greedy now as they were then. But now everything's faster, and the game is more often won in the mind than it is by a system. So start with that book, and supplement it with the 26-week series that we've linked to earlier. I also strongly suggest The Visual Investor by John Murphy for a good and simple explanation of charts and indicators, and Methods of a Wall Street Master by Victor Sperandeo for an explanation of trends and discipline. My site may also be of help. --Db <> Depends on what you mean by "values". Value in canslim, IMO, refers to the idea of companies having strong earnings and sales histories (and prospects). This prevents you from buying "stories" which have little or nothing to support them. Likewise, it prevents you from buying penny stocks, stocks in deserved downtrends, stocks that are in groups that just don't sparkle. Semiconductors represented "value" before early October, but they didn't exactly dawdle on the way up. <> Doesn't matter. They'll come down. Just be patient. That's where the money is made, in being patient. In waiting for just the right moment. Like a spider. <> My site may be of help here. But keep in mind also that if you're going to buy new highs, you have to know exactly what you're doing. Trends do not begin at new highs. They may continue through new highs, but they don't begin there. They often end there. If they didn't, stocks would never go down. This Buy At New Highs business is fortune cookie strategy. <> A lot of this has to do with the fact that so much is so overvalued and with the ever-increasing influence of daytraders. These have made for a lot of extra volatility over the last year or so, and it's tough to get used to and incorporate into one's strategy. <> I don't equate canslim with momentum. Canslim insists on a fundamental element that momentum players couldn't care less about. That's what makes it different. But as to what to suggest for you, I still don't know what it is you want. IMO, it would be best if you were to forget about stocks and markets and charts for a while and think about what it is you want. The questions are still there - what you want out of the markets, why you want it, when you want it, how much you want out of it, etc. When I know that, I can help you develop a strategy for yourself, which of course you are free to work with or reject. In the meantime, if you're unsure of what you're doing, do nothing. There's plenty of time. ORCL's not going anywhere. --Db === "Lessons are repeated until they are learned." http://home.talkcity.com//MoneySt/dbphoenix/ _________________________________________________________ Do You Yahoo!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Bill Ford" Subject: [CANSLIM] FREE SITE: EPS - RS - VOL% Daily Date: 25 Mar 1999 10:36:02 -0500 Is anyone else using StockTables.com for their Canslim screens? It is the best that I have found! They are free and rank 10,000 stocks daily.. EPS RS VOL% ACC/DIST Industry Charts / Rankings Sector Option bid and ask for all calls and puts Company Profiles and more Free... http://www.stocktables.com Win a Laptop!!! Signup for your FREE GotMail.com email account at http://www.gotmail.com. DO IT NOW! - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: TM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] When Added to S&P Date: 25 Mar 1999 09:40:33 -0800 (PST) I can find the components of the S&P 500 etc., but can't find a site that tells when the stocks were added. Is there one? TM _________________________________________________________ Do You Yahoo!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Craig Griffin Subject: [CANSLIM] MSFT Breakout Date: 25 Mar 1999 13:35:26 -0500 MSFT breakout. Pivot about 175. - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: rolatzi Subject: [CANSLIM] c&h Date: 25 Mar 1999 10:56:57 -0800 (PST) Hi, I'm not sure whether I think the market is still bullish but that not withstanding I noticed two stocks that seem to be in their handles after completing their cups, which are now on my watch list and which are both in internet related sectors namely: INSS, 99,94,76,B. b/o should be at 71 EGRP, 99, ?, ?, ?. left rim of cup at 66.44, right rim at 61.94. It would be a second level b/o for EGRP and 3rd for INSS. happy hunting, rolatzi _________________________________________________________ Do You Yahoo!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Craig Griffin Subject: [CANSLIM] SUNW Breakout Date: 25 Mar 1999 15:00:35 -0500 Pivot about 115. - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: TM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Your WOWs Group Date: 25 Mar 1999 18:36:49 -0800 (PST) I've been keeping a little index of helpful posts. Here is a copy for you. Also I added a couple of Jeff's links to the link's pages. Data Sources/Compliance 15 Phrophetdata 157 & 158 Wows and Fundamental Screening 49 Y2K compliant 125 A good troubleshooting Functions 17 RS 115 TM-2 security template 179 Using WOW 7 Managing Data 20 Tannis 80 WOW and PIA downloads 93 Data Imports-Not for the Squeamish 94 Data Imorts Part 2 99 And to finish 111 Symbol changes 113 EdMalone 124 Here you go 131 Ms and WOWs 147 Updating WOW with free data Formulas 24 Formula (crossover) 44 Scans (52 week high) 46 Scans(where to enter) 122 Shorting 152 Coppock Composites 32 Composites 33 Composites 38 Composites 105-Tannis-IBD groups 109 Industry Groups 119 Jeff Ranord's Scan Methods 69 PIA 88 Split Scan Jeff TM _________________________________________________________ Do You Yahoo!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: TM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Oh, Oh, I'm sorry. Date: 25 Mar 1999 18:39:38 -0800 (PST) I meant to send a message to an individual not the group. TM _________________________________________________________ Do You Yahoo!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Today's Durable Goods Report Tom Date: 25 Mar 1999 21:44:49 -0500 Hi Ed, I don't think the continuing rise in consumer debt had any measurable effect on the durable goods reports, but what this article so well summarizes as a pattern is one reason I have continued to hold a position in EPIQ. It is my "hedge" against inflation and recession. Individual bankruptcies continue to hit new records every month, and all it will take is a series of months of inflation, increasing interest rates hitting adjustable consumer loans, job layoffs, etc, and bankruptcy filings will overwhelm the system. If at the same time the market fails to deliver a continuation of the "windfall wealth" which has been funding much of the consumer spending habits, IMHO, then bankruptcy will become commonplace. Tom W stkguru@netside.net ICQ # 5568838 -----Original Message----- Tom, This article from Dismalscientist.com may partially explain why. Sounds like alot of people are maxxed out. Household Debt Burden Follows the Market Analysis by Mark Zandi Written March 22, 1999 The stock market is not the only thing hitting record highs. The household debt burden, or the ratio of total household liabilities to disposable income, rose to a new record high of 101% according to the Federal Reserve Board (see Chart). Household debt surpassed income for the first time in the third quarter of last year. At the start of the 1990's, the debt burden was closer to 85% and at the start of the 1980's it was near 70%. Household borrowing is accelerating rapidly. At its current year-over-year rate of 9%, household liabilities are expanding as quickly as they have since the start of the decade and over twice the rate of growth in disposable income. - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] c&h Date: 25 Mar 1999 22:26:16 -0500 RS EPS GRS A/D Timeliness U/D Ratio INSS 92 99 76 B A 1.1 EGRP 99 24 99 A C 1.0 EGRP shows such a low EPS because its latest two quarters fell well under the respective prior year quarters (a loss actually, compared to a profit). Based on an old "rule of thumb" of two times its 200 dma, it's already fully or over valued. Neither shows the level of u/d ratio I would expect in this mkt, or from their charts. Of the two, INSS has several characteristics going for it I like: management ownership (50%); ROE (20%); and a substantially smaller issue and float. EGRP has none of these, and I suspect it's strong growth spurt over the past several years has dried up. At least the level of complaints I read on the net about service, responsiveness, execution, etc seem to still persist. And Schwab, among others, may well be taking mkt share away from it. Of the two, INSS would appear to me to have greater value, and potential. I would generally agree with your breakout points. Tom W stkguru@netside.net ICQ # 5568838 -----Original Message----- Hi, I'm not sure whether I think the market is still bullish but that not withstanding I noticed two stocks that seem to be in their handles after completing their cups, which are now on my watch list and which are both in internet related sectors namely: INSS, 99,94,76,B. b/o should be at 71 EGRP, 99, ?, ?, ?. left rim of cup at 66.44, right rim at 61.94. It would be a second level b/o for EGRP and 3rd for INSS. happy hunting, rolatzi _________________________________________________________ Do You Yahoo!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: CA011667@aol.com Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] c&h Date: 25 Mar 1999 23:28:23 EST Tom, Just wondering if you or anyone else noticed the Russell 2000 today, up almost nine points, a big move for this index. Could we finally get some small cap participation?Have a good night. Chris. - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: musicant@autobahn.org (Dan Musicant) Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] c&h Date: 26 Mar 1999 05:58:27 GMT On Thu, 25 Mar 1999 23:28:23 EST, you wrote: :Tom, : :Just wondering if you or anyone else noticed the Russell 2000 today, up = almost :nine points, a big move for this index. Could we finally get some small = cap :participation?Have a good night. Chris. The R2000 move today wasn't too bad, but it was still less than the Nasdaq composite, which outperformed it by around 50%. The R2000 is still below 400, which wasn't an especially high level for it to begin with when you consider that it was upwards of 460 about a year ago. You can hope, but we don't yet have an indication that the small caps are ready to participate in this *bull market*.=20 Dan - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Small Caps (was Re: [CANSLIM] c&h) Date: 26 Mar 1999 06:12:04 -0500 Hi Chris, I certainly noted the R2000's move, second only to Nasdaq for the day. But this sector remains a serious underperformer, and is likely, IMO, to continue so until the volatility settles down long enough to be a faint memory. Until then, the greater liquidity of the big cap stocks will remain the arena of greatest interest, and money flow. Chartwise, the R2000 now has substantial, continued, and recent overhead resistance to overcome. Tom W stkguru@netside.net ICQ # 5568838 -----Original Message----- Tom, Just wondering if you or anyone else noticed the Russell 2000 today, up almost nine points, a big move for this index. Could we finally get some small cap participation?Have a good night. Chris. - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Connie Mack Rea Subject: [CANSLIM] Oil stocks, drillers, etc. [Connie Mack] Date: 26 Mar 1999 09:34:39 -0500 In late February, I said that the oils, drillers, and servicers were make double, triple, and quadruple bottoms. These sectors could hardly be beaten down more. My faculty trading group couldn't pick from 25 stocks that I gave them. Like children--as it turns out, wise children--they sold everything the group held and bought a 100 shares of 22. They ran out of money or they would have bought the whole lot. Well. Today they are asking me what to do. They not a single loser and are awash in their self-bestowed wisdom--and several thousand dollars. I've looked over the stocks and found no more than three that I might take profits in. Jesus, I hate it when "children" are smarter than their mentor. More seriously, members who bought into the stocks ought to hold. Use the 3/7/10 EMA, SloSto, and MACD as guides for lightening up. I am still trading DELL. I've a couple of positions left over from yesterday. I'll be inclined to let some go at 40 or so. Have been watching MU, but its good earnings report was without positive influence. Connie Mack - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: musicant@autobahn.org (Dan Musicant) Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Re: Size of company Date: 26 Mar 1999 07:21:11 GMT I think this post by Db is very excellent in places, but requires some criticism in others, if I may be so brash. Normally, I defer to Db's judgment, and I am generally in awe in regards to it. Read on. On Thu, 25 Mar 1999 06:20:33 -0800 (PST), you wrote: : :Re company size and changes in canslim, you may be interested in a = couple of :posts I made elsewhere: : :<> : :O'Neil's in a tough spot. Canslim was originally developed around small = cap :stocks - small float, not much fund interest, high mgmt ownership, = steady :growth over several quarters (preferably several years), etc. : :But PCs, the Internet, the explosion in funds (particularly index = funds), :the huge increase in the number of people saving for retirement (baby :boomers reaching their 50s), online trading, inexpensive charting and :scanning software, and, eventually, daytrading, changed everything. = Quite :frankly, I don't think even he understands how. If he did, he wouldn't = be so :far behind in establishing an Internet presence. He just doesn't seem to :grasp that virtually everything that IBD has in it is available for free= on :the Net.=20 I think there's a lot of truth in this. DGO (Daily Graphs Online), which I used in its beta phase, didn't come off as a technologically savvy foray into the Internet sector for WON and his legions. In a lot of ways it was very excellent, and in ways that other resources were not, and it is undoubtedly better now. But it was not very interactive. I don't think this is too surprising, however. This was a newspaperman's foray into the online digital world, not the product of tech heads. Of course, it is almost axiomatic that as the twig is bent, so grows the tree. Thus, WON, who took his gains in the markets and launched a newspaper after buying himself a seat on the NYSE, is a newspaperman (obviously), and a salesman as well. He is very into promoting his system, his book and his newspaper, and he does this very well.=20 : :This doesn't mean that canslim is worthless. But it can no longer be :followed blindly. To go into all the details of how it should be adapted :would require a post far longer than this. But the essentials of canslim= are :still worth learning.=20 : :>From the fundamental side, find strong companies that are the leaders = in :their respective industries and which have strong earnings, sales, and :profit margin growth.=20 : :>From the technical side, buy them only when they are emerging from :constructive chart patterns during periods of group and market strength.= =20 : :>From the personal growth side, develop the discipline and the = objectivity to :plan your trades (even if those "trades" are for months) and to trade = your :plan. : :As long as you don't get bogged down in details, most of HTMMIS still :applies. Markets are pretty much the same now as they were a hundred = years :ago because markets are transactions among buyers and sellers and they = are :just as fearful and greedy now as they were then. But now everything's :faster, and the game is more often won in the mind than it is by a = system. : :So start with that book, and supplement it with the 26-week series that :we've linked to earlier. I also strongly suggest The Visual Investor by = John :Murphy for a good and simple explanation of charts and indicators, and :Methods of a Wall Street Master by Victor Sperandeo for an explanation = of :trends and discipline. My site may also be of help. : :--Db : :<> I think it's a good idea to stop watching DELL for a while. I do not expect a surge in DELL. The disappointing fundamentals reported recently point to at least a significant easing in DELL's progress. If those fundamentals change, who knows? DELL was a 99, 99 company and is now a 99, 92 company: the relative strength has slipped significantly. I wouldn't expect a resurgence until there's good news on the earnings front. I'm not saying that won't happen, but I don't think the next announcement is for another month and a half. : :Depends on what you mean by "values". Value in canslim, IMO, refers to = the :idea of companies having strong earnings and sales histories (and :prospects). This prevents you from buying "stories" which have little or :nothing to support them. Likewise, it prevents you from buying penny = stocks, :stocks in deserved downtrends, stocks that are in groups that just don't :sparkle. Semiconductors represented "value" before early October, but = they :didn't exactly dawdle on the way up. : :<> : :Doesn't matter. They'll come down. Just be patient. That's where the = money :is made, in being patient. In waiting for just the right moment. Like a :spider. I don't know about being like a spider. It's hard to know when the right moment is in the stock market. Now a spider or a panther have a much better idea when to pounce.=20 : :<> : :My site may be of help here. But keep in mind also that if you're going = to :buy new highs, you have to know exactly what you're doing. Trends do not :begin at new highs. They may continue through new highs, but they don't :begin there. They often end there. If they didn't, stocks would never go :down. This Buy At New Highs business is fortune cookie strategy. Trends do not begin at new highs. This is reasonable. However, it is not essential to buy at the beginning of a trend to make excellent profits. A famous successful stock trader attributed his success to never buying at the bottom and never selling at the top. I think that WON would strongly disagree that it is no longer wise to buy stocks at new highs. Db evidently is skeptical of this, but I believe that WON holds it as one of the fundamental strategies of CANSLIM. It was WON's observation of this strategy of the Dreyfus fund which outperformed all the other mutual funds of its time that led to his early success. This is all documented in HTMMIS. : :<> : :A lot of this has to do with the fact that so much is so overvalued and = with :the ever-increasing influence of daytraders. These have made for a lot = of :extra volatility over the last year or so, and it's tough to get used to= and :incorporate into one's strategy. : :<> : :I don't equate canslim with momentum. Canslim insists on a fundamental :element that momentum players couldn't care less about. That's what = makes it :different. WON would agree, that CANSLIM investing is not momentum investing, although there are certainly parties who equate CANSLIM with momentum investing. I think momentum is an important aspect of the stock market, but CANSLIM is far more fundamental and complex than simple "momentum". :But as to what to suggest for you, I still don't know what it is you = want. :IMO, it would be best if you were to forget about stocks and markets and :charts for a while and think about what it is you want. The questions = are :still there - what you want out of the markets, why you want it, when = you :want it, how much you want out of it, etc. When I know that, I can help = you :develop a strategy for yourself, which of course you are free to work = with :or reject. : :In the meantime, if you're unsure of what you're doing, do nothing. = There's :plenty of time. ORCL's not going anywhere. : :--Db I've found that for me, to do nothing in the market is OK. It's OK to go to cash, stand on the sidelines and take a breather. It sure beats making a bunch of blunders. ORCL will be here for a while, sure. Not going anywhere? Well, it was upgraded today by Montgomery Securities along with about 10 other stocks, I believe, and I bet they all did very well what with the big tech rally today. But that's just today. Personally, I am not confident about the markets. It's the extreme lack of breadth that I do not like. Today was a lot better, but that's just one day. There were still about 3 times more new lows than highs in the NYSE today. Dan :=3D=3D=3D : :"Lessons are repeated until they are learned." : :http://home.talkcity.com//MoneySt/dbphoenix/ : : : :_________________________________________________________ :Do You Yahoo!? :Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com : : : : :- : - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Craig Griffin Subject: [CANSLIM] Breakouts and the Market Date: 26 Mar 1999 10:34:50 -0500 These posts say more than simply "here is a large cap stock breakout you might consider buying". Also, implied: if the leaders of this bull market are performing second and third stage breakouts, then the market is still ok (bull mode). If these breakouts fail, market is suspect. So, as is well reported, we have a narrow market, but it is currently ok. Still on a "buy signal". Recent breakouts: ATHM - looks good (too extended to buy) AOL - looks good (too extended to buy) DELL - broke out of ugly pattern at about 35, re-testing doesn't look very good (went too far before coming back to retest - ugly pattern) HD - broke out at 61 3/4 - retested - looks ok WMT - broke out at 86 on 02/16/99 - looks good (extended) EMC - broke out at 109 - 6 wk base, retest at 112, looks good AXP - broke out at 113, looks ok BBY - broke out at 48 - 6 wk base, ugly retest, maybe ok ANF - no recent base of 6 wks or longer - still rolling So, based on leadership market looks ok at the moment. If several of these do a "DELL" on us and worse - pull back into their bases - lookout. Just one more way of taking the market's pulse. Inter"nuts" are still in their own market (see ATHM for example - and recent IPO's). Possibly worth some of your high risk money (small amount of portfolio for most of us) on breakouts. Terrible looking market overall. Still money to be made in selected stocks. Nifty fifty or maybe nifty 500 type environment. Careful CANSLIM style buying should continue to be ok until rest of market participates or we get a bear. Best Regards, Craig - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Dean Edwards" Subject: [CANSLIM] Internet Bank Stocks TBFC NTBK Date: 27 Mar 1999 05:12:10 +1200 They seem to be breaking out today Can someone post me the latest IBD EPS/RS for TBFC NTBK Thanks - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: DS Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Internet Bank Stocks TBFC NTBK Date: 26 Mar 1999 12:05:33 -0600 Hi all, Keep an eye on SONE. It is in the internet bank group and is building a head of steam here. Resistance is in the 70-71 area. DSquires - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Johan Van Houtven Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Internet Bank Stocks TBFC NTBK Date: 26 Mar 1999 19:22:43 +0100 At 05:12 AM 27-03-99 +1200, you wrote: >They seem to be breaking out today >Can someone post me the latest IBD EPS/RS for >TBFC 91 71 A >NTBK Hot CS nrs but already extended. B/O 60 5/8 > >Thanks > > >- > > Johan - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Johan Van Houtven Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Internet Bank Stocks TBFC NTBK Date: 26 Mar 1999 19:24:00 +0100 OOPS! At 05:12 AM 27-03-99 +1200, you wrote: >They seem to be breaking out today >Can someone post me the latest IBD EPS/RS for >TBFC 11 98 B Recent IPO >NTBK 91 71 A Hot CS nrs (for an internet) but already extended. B/O 60 5/8 > >Thanks > > >- > > Johan - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: TM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Internet Bank Stocks TBFC NTBK Date: 26 Mar 1999 10:41:18 -0800 (PST) TBFC 11 98 a c b eps/rs/Grs/sales/a-d NTBK 77 98 a c 3/26 IBD TM --- Dean Edwards wrote: > They seem to be breaking out today > Can someone post me the latest IBD EPS/RS for > TBFC > NTBK > > Thanks > > > - > > _________________________________________________________ Do You Yahoo!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Craig Griffin Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Internet Bank Stocks TBFC NTBK Date: 26 Mar 1999 13:15:16 -0500 At 05:12 AM 3/27/99 +1200, you wrote: >They seem to be breaking out today >Can someone post me the latest IBD EPS/RS for >TBFC >NTBK > >Thanks > Dean, Not exactly what you requested, but here is the QPv2 Fundamental Info. NTBK - NETBANK INC Symbol: NTBK Exchange: NASDAQ Price To Sales Ratio: 20.43 CUSIP: 64093310 Cross Reference CUSIP: Industry Group: Banking-Southeast Industry Sector: Financial SIC Code: 6712 SIC Description: Bank holding companies Net.B@nk, Inc. is a bank holding company for Atlanta Internet Bank, a federally chartered Internet-based savings bank. For the 9 months ended 9/30/98, total interest income totalled $11.7M up from $908K. Net interest income after loan loss provision totalled $4.5M vs. a loss of $88K. Net income totalled $3.7M vs. a loss of $4.7M. Results reflect the 7/97 inception of regular banking operations, reduced contract amortization and a $2.7M income tax benefit. FY'96 = 11 months due to 2/20/96 inception of operations. FY'97 Q's are being reclassified. Issue type: Common Issue Status: 0 Market Cap: 353.5 mil Annual Dividend: 0.000 Yield: 0.0 Options: YES, Book Value Per Share: 6.18 Beta: 0.000 Last Update: 03/20/1999 Trailing 12 Months Revenues Per Share: 2.82 1 Year Revenue Growth Rate: 713.585% 1 Year Earnings Growth Rate: 0.000% 3 Year Revenue Growth Rate: 0.000% 3 Year Earnings Growth Rate: 0.000% 5 Year Revenue Growth Rate: 0.000% 5 Year Earnings Growth Rate: 0.000% Revenues And Earnings Per Share Excluding Extraordinary Item (The Quarterly Dates are Based on the Company's Fiscal Year) Revenues 12 Month Earnings 12 Month Quarter 1,000's Change Per Share Change 12/1998 6,343 382.36% 0.11 N/A 09/1998 5,284 486.46% 0.10 N/A 06/1998 4,253 425200.00% 0.51 N/A 03/1998 2,206 36666.67% -0.02 N/A 12/1997 1,315 16337.50% -0.14 N/A 09/1997 901 -0.32 N/A 06/1997 1 -0.52 N/A 03/1997 6 -0.67 N/A 12/1996 8 -0.97 09/1996 0 -0.44 06/1996 0 -0.01 03/1996 0 0.01 Dividends Dates Type Announcement Ex Record Payable Amount EPS Date EPS P/E 12/98 0.73 78.8 Including Extraordinary Items 12/98 0.69 83.7 Excluding Extraordinary Items Float: 6.90 Shares Outstanding: 6.1 Float as percent of shares out: 112.23 Short Interest As Of 02/08/99: 0.54 mil Short Interest as a percent of the float: 7.78% Institutional percentage held: 19.60% TBFC - TELEBANC FINL CORP Symbol: TBFC Exchange: NASDAQ Price To Sales Ratio: 4.95 CUSIP: 87925R10 Cross Reference CUSIP: Industry Group: Financl-Savings Loan Industry Sector: Financial SIC Code: 6035 SIC Description: Federal savings institutions TBFC, a holding company, is a provider of high value savings, investments & other financial products & services. For the FY ended 12/98, total interest income rose 69% to $100.1M. Net interest income after loan loss prov. rose 53% to $18.9M. Net loss applic. to Common totalled $737K vs. income of $3.7M. Net interest income reflects higher earning assets, partially offset by a rise in interest on deposits. Earnings were offset by an increase in marketing costs. Issue type: Common Issue Status: 0 Market Cap: 734.1 mil Annual Dividend: 0.000 Yield: 0.0 Options: YES, Book Value Per Share: 9.16 Beta: 0.000 Last Update: 03/20/1999 Trailing 12 Months Revenues Per Share: 11.80 1 Year Revenue Growth Rate: 68.817% 1 Year Earnings Growth Rate: 0.000% 3 Year Revenue Growth Rate: 35.197% 3 Year Earnings Growth Rate: 0.000% 5 Year Revenue Growth Rate: 43.128% 5 Year Earnings Growth Rate: 0.000% Revenues And Earnings Per Share Excluding Extraordinary Item (The Quarterly Dates are Based on the Company's Fiscal Year) Revenues 12 Month Earnings 12 Month Quarter 1,000's Change Per Share Change 12/1998 35,826 118.86% 0.05 -68.75% 09/1998 27,632 86.45% -0.17 N/A 06/1998 18,581 21.64% 0.00 -100.00% 03/1998 18,071 40.77% 0.05 -66.67% 12/1997 16,369 43.17% 0.16 -38.46% 09/1997 14,820 24.84% 0.11 N/A 06/1997 15,275 34.42% 0.16 -11.11% 03/1997 12,837 15.33% 0.15 -6.25% 12/1996 11,433 0.26 09/1996 11,871 -0.02 06/1996 11,364 0.18 03/1996 11,131 0.16 Dividends Dates Type Announcement Ex Record Payable Amount 32 06/19/98 06/23/98 06/11/98 06/22/98 1.00 EPS Date EPS P/E 12/98 -0.09 0.0 Including Extraordinary Items 12/98 -0.07 0.0 Excluding Extraordinary Items Float: 7.50 Shares Outstanding: 12.6 Float as percent of shares out: 59.70 Short Interest As Of 02/08/99: 0.15 mil Short Interest as a percent of the float: 1.97% Institutional percentage held: 51.15% SONE - SECURITY FIRST TECHNOLOGIES Symbol: SONE Exchange: NASDAQ Price To Sales Ratio: 29.56 CUSIP: 81427910 Cross Reference CUSIP: Industry Group: Computers-Financial Industry Sector: Information SIC Code: 6712 SIC Description: Bank holding companies SONE and its wholly-owned subsidiary Security First Technologies, Inc., develops integrated, brandable Internet applications that enable financial institutions to offer products, services and transactions over the Internet. For the 9 months ended 9/30/98, revenues rose 95% to $14.5M. Net loss from. cont. ops. rose 18% to $21.3M. Revenues reflect professional services and data center fees. Higher loss reflects increased amortization of goodwill charges. 6/95 CF is NA. FY'96 & '97 Q's are restated for disc. ops. of bank operations. 11/97, Co. acq. Solutions By Design Inc. for 1M Common Shs. Issue type: Common Issue Status: 0 Market Cap: 745.8 mil Annual Dividend: 0.000 Yield: 0.0 Options: YES, Book Value Per Share: 0.30 Beta: 0.426 Last Update: 03/20/1999 Trailing 12 Months Revenues Per Share: 2.20 1 Year Revenue Growth Rate: 123.269% 1 Year Earnings Growth Rate: 0.000% 3 Year Revenue Growth Rate: 25.218% 3 Year Earnings Growth Rate: 0.000% 5 Year Revenue Growth Rate: 0.000% 5 Year Earnings Growth Rate: 0.000% Revenues And Earnings Per Share Excluding Extraordinary Item (The Quarterly Dates are Based on the Company's Fiscal Year) Revenues 12 Month Earnings 12 Month Quarter 1,000's Change Per Share Change 12/1998 9,658 183.98% -0.63 N/A 09/1998 6,545 127.49% -0.45 N/A 06/1998 4,549 57.84% -0.75 N/A 03/1998 3,428 105.27% -0.77 N/A 12/1997 3,401 313.75% -0.93 N/A 09/1997 2,877 681.79% -0.62 N/A 06/1997 2,882 -563.34% -0.69 N/A 03/1997 1,670 138.57% -0.80 N/A 12/1996 822 -1.19 09/1996 368 -0.43 06/1996 -,622 -0.81 03/1996 700 -0.28 Dividends Dates Type Announcement Ex Record Payable Amount EPS Date EPS P/E 12/98 -2.80 0.0 Including Extraordinary Items 12/98 -2.61 0.0 Excluding Extraordinary Items Float: 9.20 Shares Outstanding: 11.5 Float as percent of shares out: 80.18 Short Interest As Of 02/08/99: 0.44 mil Short Interest as a percent of the float: 4.82% Institutional percentage held: 37.89% - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: CA011667@aol.com Subject: Re: Small Caps (was Re: [CANSLIM] c&h) Date: 26 Mar 1999 15:53:12 EST Hi Tom, Point well taken. However, as of 3:50 all major indexes are down except for you know what.Russell up over one point today.The rotation might take a while but in my opinion it is just begining. Chris. - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Tim Fisher Subject: Re: Small Caps (was Re: [CANSLIM] c&h) Date: 26 Mar 1999 13:34:27 -0800 Look at a chart of the RUT - it is just coming back up to its 200 dma. This is normal, it had dropped too far below it to keep dropping without the rest of the market following. It's got one hell of a long way to go to catch up to the NAZ, SPX and DJI, which are all above their 200 and 50 dma's. IMHO you are not seeing any kind of trend starting here, in fact the curve of the RUT's 50 dma is turning down, and just looking at that on the chart makes me ill. Comparing charts in fact confirms what I have believed for a while now, that all the indices except the RUT are in long- and intermediate- term uptrends, while the RUT is in a long-term flatline & just heading into an intermediate-term downtrend. Two days does not make a trend and to put your $$ into small caps based on those 2 days IMO would be a big mistake. Just my $0.02. At 03:53 PM 3/26/99 -0500, you wrote: >Hi Tom, > >Point well taken. However, as of 3:50 all major indexes are down except for >you know what.Russell up over one point today.The rotation might take a while >but in my opinion it is just begining. Chris. > >- > Tim Fisher, 1995 President, Pacific Fishery Biologists Ore-ROCK-On Rockhounding Web Site PFB Information mailto:tim@OreRockOn.com WWW http://OreRockOn.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Patrick Wahl" Subject: Re: Small Caps (was Re: [CANSLIM] c&h) Date: 26 Mar 1999 21:14:34 -0800 Date sent: Fri, 26 Mar 1999 13:34:27 -0800 > Look at a chart of the RUT - it is just coming back up to its 200 dma. This is > normal, it had dropped too far below it to keep dropping without the rest of > the market following. It's got one hell of a long way to go to catch up to the > NAZ, SPX and DJI, which are all above their 200 and 50 dma's. IMHO you are not > seeing any kind of trend starting here, in fact the curve of the RUT's 50 dma > is turning down, and just looking at that on the chart makes me ill. Comparing > charts in fact confirms what I have believed for a while now, that all the > indices except the RUT are in long- and intermediate- term uptrends, while the > RUT is in a long-term flatline & just heading into an intermediate-term > downtrend. A little further bad news for the small caps - in an article on the CBS Marketwatch site, they said that there has been a significant amount of money flowing out of small cap mutual funds in the last few months, and the fund managers will have to sell some of their holdings in order to redeem the shares of those cashing out, providing a bit more selling pressure for the small caps. They also mentioned that small cap stocks are at their cheapest level in 40 years. The contrarian in me wants to think that the redemptions are a sign that they are near a botton - when everyone is finally throwing in the towel and touting large caps as the place to invest for forseeable future, then maybe we are approaching a bottom in small caps. However, as you say, the trend is sideways to down, and I am not going to try to anticipate a turn in the trend, better to see a few signs of the turn before getting in. - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: [CANSLIM] DGO New Highs, "M" Date: 27 Mar 1999 07:21:47 -0500 Take a moment or two to think about this, with most of the major indexes sitting near all time record highs, the 10 dma of new highs is not only dismally low, it is about half of the 10 dma of new lows. Just one further example of the complete lack of breadth in the market. Frankly, I don't understand why WON would be so unconcerned over the lack of breadth. Earnings have been eroded; altho they have often exceeded final expectations, those expectations were usually scaled down, and in many cases the latest earnings were down from the prior year, tho up from expectations. I guess the market, and investors, suffer from a severe case of long term memory loss, and can't remember or think as far back as 12 months. I suspect that many investors think last week was a "good week". Maybe they were expecting to get trashed as a new and potentially explosive new conflict erupted into direct combat in Kosovo. Sadly, I doubt that NATO's efforts will have much in the way of positive effect, other than a statement that genocide and ethnic related slaughters are socially unacceptable to democratic nations. Apparently, such inhuman actions are an acceptable part of govt policy and control in countries like Russia, as they didn't speak out against them beforehand, and now condemn the NATO assault on grounds such as the NATO didn't discuss and approve an attack first. In any case, the market seems to have shown little reaction, other than a mild "flight to quality" reflected in the US bond mkt (and that may be more economic related than combat related). Overall, last week was not a winning week. NASDAQ was essentially flat, while Dow30 lost 0.80%. Both S&Ps lost ground, down 0.9% (100) and 1.2% (500). And the R2000 was in the middle, down 0.6%. VIX (volatility) remained above CANSLIM quality levels and essentially unchanged. No surprise, the lack of breadth or advancement was also reflected in the new DG highs, with only 145 stocks in the books making new highs during the week, and only 44 of basic CANSLIM quality (RS/EPS of 80/80 or better). This is down very sharply from 230 total and 80 of CS requirements. Anyone sitting with cash and seriously considering committing this cash to the market based on CANSLIM should rethink this situation. Anyone not already in cash should be at least carefully monitoring your weakest performers, as well as reviewing the use of stop or stop limit orders on your biggest gainers. For me it's easy, I have no gainers, and all the stocks I have are "weak", now, how do I enter a "sell everything" order at Schwab?? Anyway, enough lame humor, and unusual (for me) bearish sentiment, here are the 44 "survivors": NSOL, HVT, ARMHY, FON, PROX, ZQK, LM, POSIF, AFL, AULT, PFE, CPRT, CSN, XOMD, ADCT, SONC, FLEX, TG, MTP, ABDR, CLE, BOKF, JNJ, SDLI, EFII, UNPH, ALD, MCRI, OCLI, ADBE, OMC, MSFT, SUNW, GUC, ADVS, EMC, BJICA, TLAB, QCOM, SCH, TIF, DL, COF, ANF. Members, please, do not interpret my comments above as a suggestion to rush out and short everything, or even anything. The strong economy in the USA, esp compared to the rest of the globe, suggests that a collapse is not imminent. However, for CANSLIMers, this is not a healthy market. And for small cap players like myself, it's no market at all. Be careful, and happy hunting. Tom W stkguru@netside.net ICQ # 5568838 - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Marc Laniado" Subject: [CANSLIM] New Highs Date: 27 Mar 1999 11:46:44 -0000 Dear All, Reading through the book and course on IBD, I see we should have our stocks in the groups making the most new highs. I subscribe to Daily Graphs Online and I have sorted through the group looking for new highs. As might be expected, the groups with most new highs have average earnings per share which are quite low compared to what is recommended. Should EPS be replaced with SMR within the stock group or should some other measured be used? Growth in revenues?? The ability to get money in before paying it out vis a vis the formula of (cash and cash equivalents - receivable)/accounts payable In the Motley Fool books, this has been suggested to be a measure of power because strong companies can demand their cash up front and delay paying their accounts. Working capital should be sufficiently positive. The best companies would have fractions of less than 1 eg AOL and MSFT (which has earnings anyway). Perhaps this measure combined with hugh revenues increases (eg AMZN) may indicate which companies are the best in a group to buy if they do not yet have earnings? NH EPS RS 8 37 99 INTERNET-ISP/CONTENT 8 80 97 TELECOMMUNICATIONS-EQUIP 7 24 96 MEDIA-CABLE TV 6 72 92 COMPUTER SOFTWR-ENTERPSE 6 57 95 COMPUTER-SERVICES 6 30 94 TELECOMMUNICATIONS-SVCS 5 53 99 INTERNET-NTWK SEC/SLTNS 4 54 92 ELEC-SEMICONDUCTOR MFG 4 21 98 INTERNET-E*COMMERCE 4 57 85 UTILITY-ELECTRIC POWER 3 78 96 COMML SERVICES-MISC 3 72 96 COMPUTER-LOCAL NETWORKS NH=new high EPS =average earnings per share in the industry group making new highs derived from DGO RS=average RS of stocks making new high in the industry group Any comments? Marc Marc E Laniado marclaniado@msn.com begin 666 Marc Elie Laniado.vcf M0D5'24XZ5D-!4D0-"DXZ3&%N:6%D;SM-87)C.T5L:64-"D9..DUAThey seem to be breaking out today :>Can someone post me the latest IBD EPS/RS for :>TBFC : :11 98 B Recent IPO : :>NTBK : :91 71 A : :Hot CS nrs (for an internet) but already extended. B/O 60 5/8 : :> :>Thanks :Johan The chart of NTBK is a classic cup and handle extending back to the last week of January. *IF* you read it like that, it's just clearing the January high (which was a spike!) ... *IF* it continues breaking out. Will it? Time will tell. Friday was the first day of the breakout, IMO, as Thursday was below ADV, and only took it to the level of the handle. Still it is up around 25% in two days, and could be considered extended by CANSLIM standards. Nevertheless, I like the chart. Dan - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: musicant@autobahn.org (Dan Musicant) Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Internet Bank Stocks TBFC NTBK Date: 27 Mar 1999 18:03:29 GMT :The chart of NTBK is a classic cup and handle extending back to the last :week of January. *IF* you read it like that, it's just clearing the :January high (which was a spike!) ... *IF* it continues breaking out. :Will it? Time will tell. Friday was the first day of the breakout, IMO, :as Thursday was below ADV, and only took it to the level of the handle. :Still it is up around 25% in two days, and could be considered extended :by CANSLIM standards. Nevertheless, I like the chart. : :Dan I forgot my disclaimer: I bought it on the 17th, ten days ago on a Wednesday, and still hold it. Dan - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] New Highs Date: 27 Mar 1999 15:26:42 -0500 Marc, When the leadership groups lack earnings, to me it is just another sign that this is not a market for CANSLIM based investing. If, for some reason, you must remain invested, then you must seek other methods rather than trying to adjust CANSLIM. Valuations remain very high, I cannot recall the last time that the S&P500 PE ratio remained so high for so long of a sustained period. If the mkt were to remain flat for the rest of the year, and the projections of earnings growth of 15% year over year prove true, then we could grow into some of these high valuations by 2000. Then, at least, we would have some fundamentals to support these valuations. In the meantime, I remain unconvinced that we have entered into a new bull mkt, or continued the last one. Right now, the only thing sustaining this mkt is the lack of inflation combined with above trend economic growth and a strong labor mkt. But any one of these factors could turn ugly very quickly, and cause a hike in the Fed rates (won't happen at next week's meeting, but could happen this year). Just the hint, much less the actuality, of a series of rate hikes and this mkt is down 20% or more. Tom W stkguru@netside.net ICQ # 5568838 -----Original Message----- Dear All, Reading through the book and course on IBD, I see we should have our stocks in the groups making the most new highs. I subscribe to Daily Graphs Online and I have sorted through the group looking for new highs. As might be expected, the groups with most new highs have average earnings per share which are quite low compared to what is recommended. Should EPS be replaced with SMR within the stock group or should some other measured be used? Growth in revenues?? The ability to get money in before paying it out vis a vis the formula of (cash and cash equivalents - receivable)/accounts payable In the Motley Fool books, this has been suggested to be a measure of power because strong companies can demand their cash up front and delay paying their accounts. Working capital should be sufficiently positive. The best companies would have fractions of less than 1 eg AOL and MSFT (which has earnings anyway). Perhaps this measure combined with hugh revenues increases (eg AMZN) may indicate which companies are the best in a group to buy if they do not yet have earnings? NH EPS RS 8 37 99 INTERNET-ISP/CONTENT 8 80 97 TELECOMMUNICATIONS-EQUIP 7 24 96 MEDIA-CABLE TV 6 72 92 COMPUTER SOFTWR-ENTERPSE 6 57 95 COMPUTER-SERVICES 6 30 94 TELECOMMUNICATIONS-SVCS 5 53 99 INTERNET-NTWK SEC/SLTNS 4 54 92 ELEC-SEMICONDUCTOR MFG 4 21 98 INTERNET-E*COMMERCE 4 57 85 UTILITY-ELECTRIC POWER 3 78 96 COMML SERVICES-MISC 3 72 96 COMPUTER-LOCAL NETWORKS NH=new high EPS =average earnings per share in the industry group making new highs derived from DGO RS=average RS of stocks making new high in the industry group Any comments? Marc Marc E Laniado marclaniado@msn.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: CA011667@aol.com Subject: Re: Small Caps (was Re: [CANSLIM] c&h) Date: 27 Mar 1999 23:30:39 EST This is my point,I am not saying that I or anyone else should start to pile all their money into small caps based on two days.Point is that when things seem as bad as they can get and everyone on the street is selling (i,e, people dumping thier small cap fund in lieu of large caps as stated in prior post) this tells me its time to do my homework and find the best small caps in strong industries with storng EPS and RS and be ready to buy.Remember, the trends can turn in a hurry and it only takes a short time to turn an ugly chart into a good looking one or vice versa.I am not making any crazy predictions here,just watching and waiting so I can be well ahead of the crowd.Chris. - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Dave Cameron Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] DGO New Highs, "M" Date: 27 Mar 1999 23:15:32 -0600 Tom Worley wrote: > Anyone sitting with cash and seriously considering > committing this cash to the market based on CANSLIM should > rethink this situation. Anyone not already in cash should be > at least carefully monitoring your weakest performers, as > well as reviewing the use of stop or stop limit orders on > your biggest gainers. For me it's easy, I have no gainers, > and all the stocks I have are "weak", now, how do I enter a > "sell everything" order at Schwab?? Oh sure, I come back into the group after 5 months and see the above paragraph posted my the eminent Mr. Worley. This can't be the same group I was in before. Or at least not the same Worley! The Tom Worley I know is always cautiously bullish. Secondly, if Tom is right... I am a great contrarian indicator! I left the group after years of being a member in November only to return this week. Shortly after I left, the market climbed quickly. Now I return, and Tom (and everyone else who has posted of late) indicates the need for extreme caution. Yep, right after I got back in the market. > However, for CANSLIMers, this is not a healthy market. And > for small cap players like myself, it's no market at all. Be > careful, and happy hunting. And the small cap arena differs from the last 11 months? Nah. Dave C. - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Dave Cameron Subject: [CANSLIM] Trading on expectations Date: 27 Mar 1999 23:29:59 -0600 I've been asked what I've learned over the 5 months of my absence that prompted me to give it another go. Basically 3 things, which may be worth sharing. 1. As I indicated, I was successful at CANSLIM prior to my daughter's birth - but not after. I learned that I had developed a system which is a minor variant of CANSLIM which suits my personality. This system required me to spend a couple hours per day on analysis. Once I only had a half-hour per day, the system no longer was com- patible. Yet... I kept trying to use it. I've learned that this was foolish. 2. As Dan Musicant recalled, I have a fondness for small caps. My best successes were from small caps. However, in '98 nearly every breakout failed. Some of the stocks I owned have an EPS/RS of 97/25. Go figure. If they were large caps, they'd be 94/98. Part of the reason for the fondness was previous success. The other part was that both O'Neil and Ryan have stated verbally and in writing that the 'S' in CANSLIM means shares outstanding. O'Neil has said he almost never buys a stock with over 50 million shares outstanding. This was very ingrained in me. I have learned that size goes in cycles just like sectors. 3. I have learned that O'Neil's terminology is not in sync with mine. He constantly says "you need to cut your losses at 7% once you realize you've made a mistake". The problem is that I don't see it as a mistake. I have traded a system long enough to know that I only have a 60% probability of a breakout stock continuing on to higher ground. The other 40% will drop back into the base. As such, selecting these stocks is not a "mistake". Instead, it is part of the expectation. I don't know enough about what any particular stock is doing - so I devise shortcuts. With proper money man- agement, a 60% success rate should be ample. So why did I go wrong here? Because I kept listening to O'Neil, and he kept talking about correcting your mistakes. So... I kept trying to change my system to minimize the mistakes. After getting out with a fresh perspective, I realize that these are not mistakes. The system I use (close variant to CANSLIM) has a 40% failure rate inherently built in as part of the system. Following the rules explicitly will not improve this. Ignoring the rules will likely make it worse (and did). So... I trust many of you already know what I've learned, but for those that may be encountering similar problems - my words of wisdom are as follows: 1. Find a method for which your psychology is compatible. 2. Test the method to ensure both you have confidence and your rate of success is sufficient to make you money. 3. Don't concern yourself with what someone else says - it may be a terminology difference. Regards, Dave C. (with a thanks to Zoran, whose comments helped me learn this. I'm not sure if he's still on the group... but wish he was still posting) 2. - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Dave Cameron Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Breakouts and the Market Date: 27 Mar 1999 23:31:47 -0600 Craig, I am curious as to your rationale for requiring a 6-wk base. I'm not saying it should be shorter or longer - but your message seems to imply that this is a minimum for you. Just wondering why. Dave C> Craig Griffin wrote: > > EMC - broke out at 109 - 6 wk base, retest at 112, looks > good > AXP - broke out at 113, looks ok > BBY - broke out at 48 - 6 wk base, ugly retest, maybe ok > ANF - no recent base of 6 wks or longer - still rolling > - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Marc Laniado" Subject: [CANSLIM] Power Date: 28 Mar 1999 08:54:33 +0100 I made a mistake in my formula which I would like to correct: Ratio = (current assets - cash)/current liabilities I use this with an example of a stock EXDS. This company offers a range of services such as server hosting and Internet connectivity, the company lets businesses outsource the management and operation of their Internet sites. It is the Internet ntwk/sltns industry group (4th best for this year) Its sales are increasing 325% quarter on quarter compared with last year but has negative earnings. Its gross margins have increased each quarter and currently are 19% for the last quarter. It has $151 m cash in the bank, current liabilities of $47 m and a ratio of 0.3. It therefore has more than enough cash to pay off its current liabilities without problem. It can delay paying its dues and has most of its current assets in the form of cash. Its long term debt is $227 M. Net cash from operating activities is $-47 but again has more than enough cash to allow cash flow to go negative while it expands so fast. Watching its chart, it just broke out of a cup. It is owned by Van Wagoner Emerging Growth fund which specialises in Mid cap growth companies and has a great return for this year. According to DGO 15% is held by funds and 19% by management. To some extent this is for interest, but maybe this is one way that can be used to identify great companies without earnings but are great stock successes (about $30 to 150% in one year). Happy thoughts! Marc Marc E Laniado marclaniado@msn.com begin 666 Marc Elie Laniado.vcf M0D5'24XZ5D-!4D0-"DXZ3&%N:6%D;SM-87)C.T5L:64-"D9..DUA Subject: [CANSLIM] Valuing non earning companies Date: 28 Mar 1999 09:17:04 +0100 I made a mistake in my formula which I would like to correct: Ratio = (current assets - cash)/current liabilities I use this with an example of a stock EXDS. This company offers a range of services such as server hosting and Internet connectivity, the company lets businesses outsource the management and operation of their Internet sites. It is the Internet ntwk/sltns industry group (4th best for this year) Its sales are increasing 325% quarter on quarter compared with last year but has negative earnings. Its gross margins have increased each quarter and currently are 19% for the last quarter. It has $151 m cash in the bank, current liabilities of $47 m and a ratio of 0.3. It therefore has more than enough cash to pay off its current liabilities without problem. It can delay paying its dues and has most of its current assets in the form of cash. Its long term debt is $227 M. Net cash from operating activities is $-47 but again has more than enough cash to allow cash flow to go negative while it expands so fast. Watching its chart, it just broke out of a cup. It is owned by Van Wagoner Emerging Growth fund which specialises in Mid cap growth companies and has a great return for this year. According to DGO 15% is held by funds and 19% by management. To some extent this is for interest, but maybe this is one way that can be used to identify great companies without earnings but are great stock successes (about $30 to 150% in one year). Happy thoughts! Marc - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Marc Laniado" Subject: [CANSLIM] ANF Abercrombie and Fitch Date: 28 Mar 1999 12:06:07 +0100 ANF went up on relatively low volume in the last few days. It has the most extraordinary fundamentals. Does anyone holding this think it should now be sold? Is it likely to pick up now given that the number of earnings warnings has actually diminished? Does this industry group do well with spring/summer clothing sales? Comments?? Marc E Laniado marclaniado@msn.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Marc Laniado" Subject: [CANSLIM] BIG AND MID CAP BUY'S Date: 28 Mar 1999 12:05:28 +0100 MSFT is forming a cup with handle and is due to launch Office 2000 - Do we believe this stock will now take off? Other big caps looking interesting NOKA - great earnings - about to break out TLAB ? broken out. This stock has great earnings and recently formed a deep base and handle. It broke through the peaks on relatively largish vol but not tremendously. This stock looks great but I am not sure - any comments?? NW mid cap NITE- at peak of first cup and volume and price now tightening - what do people thinks EPS 99 RS 99! OSSI -secondary base: price tightening and volume falling ADCT broke out ? products with CSCO? CSN -secondary base and just broke out INSS making cup with handle RFMD left part of cup? GENZ cup with handle but is it laggard compared with BGEN and AMGN Coming back to stocks with out earnings, David Ryan says in his tapes that he would consider buying a stock if the whole group is moving - This does not fit in with CANSLIM direct, but he must have a means of determining how he buys such stocks. Anyone know how? Regarding the market action generally, selling has been occurring but now the strong growth stocks look like their coming back esp with MSFT. If earnings come in ok then (eg Maytag MYG that said earnings would be better), then now is the time to watch out! Does anyone Veritas (VRTS) or Network Applicance (NTAP) - I do - they have been volatile but offer great prospects. I'm interested in what people think. Marc E Laniado marclaniado@msn.com begin 666 Marc Elie Laniado.vcf M0D5'24XZ5D-!4D0-"DXZ3&%N:6%D;SM-87)C.T5L:64-"D9..DUA Subject: [CANSLIM] BIG AND MID CAP BUY'S Date: 28 Mar 1999 12:06:18 +0100 MSFT is forming a cup with handle and is due to launch Office 2000 - Do we believe this stock will now take off? Other big caps looking interesting NOKA - great earnings - about to break out TLAB ? broken out. This stock has great earnings and recently formed a deep base and handle. It broke through the peaks on relatively largish vol but not tremendously. This stock looks great but I am not sure - any comments?? NW mid cap NITE- at peak of first cup and volume and price now tightening - what do people thinks EPS 99 RS 99! OSSI -secondary base: price tightening and volume falling ADCT broke out ? products with CSCO? CSN -secondary base and just broke out INSS making cup with handle RFMD left part of cup? GENZ cup with handle but is it laggard compared with BGEN and AMGN Coming back to stocks with out earnings, David Ryan says in his tapes that he would consider buying a stock if the whole group is moving - This does not fit in with CANSLIM direct, but he must have a means of determining how he buys such stocks. Anyone know how? Regarding the market action generally, selling has been occurring but now the strong growth stocks look like their coming back esp with MSFT. If earnings come in ok then (eg Maytag MYG that said earnings would be better), then now is the time to watch out! Does anyone Veritas (VRTS) or Network Applicance (NTAP) - I do - they have been volatile but offer great prospects. I'm interested in what people think. Marc E Laniado marclaniado@msn.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] DGO New Highs, "M" Date: 28 Mar 1999 09:15:17 -0500 Sorry, Dave For several months now, I have been considering just cashing out and taking a vacation from the market. I have being seeing more neg earnings surprises than usual out of the small cap sector, which remains my sector of choice. Don't know if it's a result of greater difficulty in pricing and price increases, or some other factor. Interest rates have not changed enough to cause this. The economy has not slowed down, the global mkts haven't gotten any worse (if anything they improved), and likewise the strength of the dollar doesn't account for it, IMHO. Like you, my system requires several hours of disciplined work every day. And like the addition of your daughter, my continuing 65-70 hour work weeks have cut into my sleep time, and investing time to a lesser degree (sleep got cut first, down to about 4 hours/nite now, that's how obsessed I am). And during mkt hours, I am usually too busy to pay attention to the mkt. End result, I have made far too many mistakes, and cost myself money, due lack of time. That, combined with my overall view of the mkt, and esp the lack of breadth or decent leadership or new highs, makes me pretty bearish. Tom W stkguru@netside.net ICQ # 5568838 -----Original Message----- Tom Worley wrote: > Anyone sitting with cash and seriously considering > committing this cash to the market based on CANSLIM should > rethink this situation. Anyone not already in cash should be > at least carefully monitoring your weakest performers, as Oh sure, I come back into the group after 5 months and see the above paragraph posted my the eminent Mr. Worley. This can't be the same group I was in before. Or at least not the same Worley! The Tom Worley I know is always cautiously bullish. > However, for CANSLIMers, this is not a healthy market. And > for small cap players like myself, it's no market at all. Be > careful, and happy hunting. And the small cap arena differs from the last 11 months? Nah. Dave C. - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: musicant@autobahn.org (Dan Musicant) Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Breakouts and the Market Date: 28 Mar 1999 15:07:35 GMT On Sat, 27 Mar 1999 23:31:47 -0600, you wrote: :Craig, : :I am curious as to your rationale for requiring a 6-wk base. I'm not = saying :it should be shorter or longer - but your message seems to imply that = this :is a minimum for you. Just wondering why. : :Dave C> : : :Craig Griffin wrote: :>=20 : :> EMC - broke out at 109 - 6 wk base, retest at 112, = looks :> good :> AXP - broke out at 113, looks ok :> BBY - broke out at 48 - 6 wk base, ugly retest, = maybe ok :> ANF - no recent base of 6 wks or longer - still = rolling :> Of course, I can't answer for Craig, but the longer a base, the better behaved the breakout, generally speaking, would be the rule. There may be a limitation on this if the base is *tooo* long, I'm not sure. However, generally a base of months is more apt to have momentum behind it than a base of weeks. Dan - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: musicant@autobahn.org (Dan Musicant) Subject: Small Cap Rotation (was Re: Small Caps (was Re: [CANSLIM] c&h)) Date: 28 Mar 1999 15:25:11 GMT On Sat, 27 Mar 1999 23:30:39 EST, you wrote: :This is my point,I am not saying that I or anyone else should start to = pile :all their money into small caps based on two days.Point is that when = things :seem as bad as they can get and everyone on the street is selling (i,e, = people :dumping thier small cap fund in lieu of large caps as stated in prior = post) :this tells me its time to do my homework and find the best small caps in :strong industries with storng EPS and RS and be ready to buy.Remember, = the :trends can turn in a hurry and it only takes a short time to turn an = ugly :chart into a good looking one or vice versa.I am not making any crazy :predictions here,just watching and waiting so I can be well ahead of the :crowd.Chris. I had a little fantasy this morning based on the present scenario, and certainly don't know if this will presage future events. However, I think there's a significant chance that the markets will stall at this point and we will see rotation (at least SOME rotation) ... presumably into small caps and whatever sectors have underperformed. Here's my rationale (it IS more than a fantasy!): When the DOW first tried to break 1000 back in 1972, it failed to do so. Do you know how long it took it to break that *jinx*?? SIX YEARS!!! The DOW just tried to break 10,000. Now you can argue that 10,000 doesn't have the ring of 1000, and I will not gainsay this. This is all rather speculative. However, consider this: programmed trading is having a bigger and bigger effect these days. The 10,000 mark was not sustained on a closing basis due to the influence of programmed trading (there may have been other significant factors, too). When the index was over 10,000 intraday, computer programs spat out sell orders and the market swung down. This may happen again, and who knows how powerfully, *IF* the DOW gets up in that range again. I have noticed that the DJIA had a seriously difficult time overcoming resistance at around the 9300 level for something like a year, and I think somewhat longer. I think this suggests that 10,000 may shape up to be a major barrier, if only psychological, perhaps mimicing the resistance at 9300 and maybe on a grander scale.=20 So, what could happen? When the market stalls, people go "what's wrong"? This can lead to rotation. Rotation is necessary and cyclical and may need some precipitating and catalysing circumstances. The 10,000 resistance may be that circumstance, or part of it. Dan - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Craig Griffin Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Breakouts and the Market Date: 28 Mar 1999 15:33:03 -0500 Dave wrote: >Craig, > >I am curious as to your rationale for requiring a 6-wk base. I'm not saying >it should be shorter or longer - but your message seems to imply that this >is a minimum for you. Just wondering why. > >Dave C> Hi Dave, Glad to have you back on the list. Thanks for the question. Dan already gave you a good answer. Generally speaking, it is just where I feel comfortable that the odds are good that I will not be stopped out at 8% too often if the base is longer than 6 and preferably 8 weeks. I can maybe add a few other insights about shorter "bases"... O'Neil generally recommends an 8 week base as the minimum. But he says that sometimes it is ok to buy off of a 5 or 6 or 7 week base with strong stocks. But this leaves a lot to the interpretation of the individual (what is "sometimes", "strong"?). I have heard Woodward say that sometimes the very best stocks just don't give you that much opportunity and that once in a while he will buy a b/o from a 4 week "base". But he says it is a real "cha cha cha" play, by which he means high risk gamble. My sense is that 6-8 weeks is long enough to offer at least some support when the stock pulls back, but that shorter "bases" offer very little support and can much more easily be knifed through on a bit of bad news or change in market conditions. One other thought ... flags and "ledges" are not really bases in the sense of offering support, IMO. But they are "consolidation" areas where the stock is backing and filling. Sometimes I buy from these formations too, but I don't think of it as being a base - so I tend to take smaller positions. My definition of a ledge is a sort of high handle. It frequently occurs when a stock breaks out of a cup or saucer formation with very little handle or no handle. Sometimes such a stock will advance 8, 10 or 12% and pause and form a tight "ledge" just at or slightly above the top of the base. This ledge is usually 1-2 weeks long and typically is very flat or maybe droops down slightly. It should be no more than 10% deep. Then volume will sometimes come in and it will breakout of the ledge and sometimes I will buy it there, even though it is up more than 10% from the original pivot (but usually no more than 15%). Of course if it falls out of the bottom of the ledge and back into the base, generally all bets are off. So those are my exceptions to my general rule of looking for breakouts from 8 week or longer bases. And my thinking is that less than 6 weeks is really not a "base", so to speak. By example, if you "knew" EMC as a stock and were looking for an opportunity to own it, the recent breakout from a 6 week base looks like a good chance. Especially given the reasonably high volume on 3/8 and 3/9. Similarly, with ANF, the best one could do is a little flat 4-5 week "base" (depending on whether you count from 1/29 or 2/4) which ended with a "breakout" on 3/2. Looks better on a weekly chart than a daily, but still a bit short for my taste. ANF offers an interesting chart. Since it left the big cup formation, it formed a ragged looking "ledge" which it left without much volume (floated up). And since has formed 2 "bases", both of 4 to 5 weeks. These three opportunities to get in have been the best chances during a 60% advance which began 11/11/98 with big volume (but which had no clear pivot point). Strange price volume behavior, but working fine so far. Best Regards, Craig - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Dave Cameron Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] ANF Abercrombie and Fitch Date: 28 Mar 1999 15:14:30 -0600 Coincidentally, Craig Griffin just posted an interesting analysis on ANF's chart pattern. You have to dig to the end of a longish message, but it may help you. Dave C. Marc Laniado wrote: > > ANF went up on relatively low volume in the last few days. It has the most > extraordinary fundamentals. Does anyone holding this think it should now be > sold? Is it likely to pick up now given that the number of earnings warnings > has actually diminished? Does this industry group do well with spring/summer > clothing sales? Comments?? > Marc E Laniado > marclaniado@msn.com > > - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: CA011667@aol.com Subject: Re: Small Cap Rotation (was Re: Small Caps (was Re: [CANSLIM] c&h)) Date: 28 Mar 1999 20:44:02 EST Dan, Thanks for the supportive vote of confidence.In the meantime,I will dream along with you.Let's see how the Russell fairs Monday as well as the rest of the week.Remember,it is always darkest before the the dawn.A corny cliche,but I could not resist.Chris. - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Marc Laniado" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] New Highs Date: 29 Mar 1999 06:26:55 +0100 Dear John, I import each day's Printed Production co data into Excel and the weekly high list on Saturday. I then incorporate all the data for each day into Stocks that are timely using the database functions within Excel. Using the weekly high list, I use the database functions to back check the industry for each stock reaching a new high and then sort by industry group to give the number of new highs for each group! This leads to interesting observations like the number of new highs in the TELECOMMUNICATIONS-EQUIP group. All the best, Marc Marc E Laniado marclaniado@msn.com -----Original Message----- >Hi Marc. >I have DGO also. am unaware you can sort or manipulate other than draw a >line with DGO. >Have you found a hidden section. > >-----Original Message----- >From: Marc Laniado >To: CANSLIM DISCUSSION LIST >Date: Saturday, March 27, 1999 8:05 AM >Subject: [CANSLIM] New Highs > > >> > > begin 666 Marc Elie Laniado.vcf M0D5'24XZ5D-!4D0-"DXZ3&%N:6%D;SM-87)C.T5L:64-"D9..DUA Subject: [CANSLIM] Weekly Stock List - Condensed Version Date: 28 Mar 1999 21:56:33 -0500 All, We dropped a few more to 173 this week. Criteria are: EPS > 69 RS > 84 GRS > 59 A/D = "A" or "B" CLOSE > 10.00 30 Day ADV > 75,000 Trade well, Ron Symbol EPS RS GRS ERG A/D Close 30 ADV ABDR 98 93 82 273 A $ 76.000 173,423 ADBE 92 89 77 258 B $ 56.940 960,903 ADCT 96 93 88 277 A $ 45.940 1,704,550 ADIC 81 85 79 245 B $ 15.750 103,173 ADVP 98 94 63 255 A $ 54.130 217,197 AEOS 99 95 93 287 A $ 69.190 415,703 AGN 81 96 85 262 B $ 91.250 359,093 AGPH 72 91 90 253 A $ 57.000 504,080 AHAA 72 93 94 259 A $ 18.560 255,715 ALNT 76 90 76 242 A $ 43.440 162,960 ALSI 99 92 80 271 A $ 30.250 180,490 ALTR 89 92 94 275 A $ 59.750 2,487,853 AMGN 93 96 90 279 A $ 74.630 4,357,103 ANF 99 96 93 288 A $ 90.060 621,037 AOL 77 99 99 275 A $ 125.690 21,715,918 APPB 92 85 87 264 A $ 26.130 399,223 APWR 70 87 62 219 A $ 10.630 90,037 ASML 77 94 95 266 A $ 42.750 1,263,263 ASND 97 94 91 282 A $ 79.810 3,840,176 AT 79 90 76 245 A $ 66.000 702,423 ATI 91 93 92 276 A $ 89.250 1,944,150 AVP 70 86 72 228 B $ 45.750 1,047,707 AVS 97 85 69 251 B $ 44.060 96,910 AXP 80 86 85 251 A $ 120.750 1,813,840 BBBY 96 86 66 248 A $ 33.440 1,259,227 BBY 76 98 97 271 B $ 49.880 2,529,467 BGF 95 89 91 275 B $ 33.130 206,673 BMET 87 87 66 240 A $ 43.560 825,077 BSX 77 88 85 250 A $ 37.750 2,316,483 BSYS 88 89 79 256 A $ 56.060 149,997 BUD 74 90 60 224 B $ 74.000 1,354,473 BXM 81 95 90 266 A $ 71.750 233,540 CCL 95 85 83 263 A $ 46.250 982,250 CGO 90 85 86 261 B $ 28.500 127,910 CHCS 86 90 93 269 A $ 20.880 101,720 CLE 88 92 89 269 A $ 28.060 539,743 CLFY 97 93 77 267 B $ 23.380 384,420 CMB 71 87 86 244 B $ 80.500 3,802,123 CMGI 77 99 99 275 A $ 182.380 4,173,100 COF 88 90 85 263 A $ 143.560 451,197 COST 85 93 90 268 B $ 91.000 1,955,987 CPRT 94 96 82 272 B $ 20.560 183,677 CREE 99 97 94 290 A $ 42.630 299,743 CSCO 96 94 91 281 A $ 105.190 13,427,152 CSN 82 96 76 254 B $ 22.810 447,953 CTL 92 90 92 274 A $ 69.250 600,550 DDDDF 99 94 77 270 A $ 51.940 126,967 DELL 99 91 75 265 A $ 37.880 57,486,152 DG 93 85 90 268 A $ 33.940 858,330 DH 88 93 90 271 B $ 68.310 1,491,283 DL 83 90 72 245 A $ 33.630 365,083 DLGC 73 88 81 242 B $ 32.130 181,313 DMMC 74 86 78 238 B $ 16.940 96,893 DSP 96 92 94 282 A $ 17.630 364,337 EAT 81 85 87 253 B $ 26.500 446,773 EFII 83 93 77 253 A $ 41.560 701,363 EL 87 89 72 248 B $ 92.250 244,197 EMC 97 97 79 273 A $ 122.880 4,322,690 EUSA 89 90 86 265 A $ 28.690 114,387 EXPD 91 88 82 261 B $ 48.500 132,383 FDC 73 92 85 250 B $ 42.250 1,724,797 FLEX 99 96 84 279 A $ 49.000 1,040,080 FM 97 91 87 275 A $ 25.750 183,977 FNDTF 80 96 89 265 A $ 29.130 170,803 FON 80 90 92 262 B $ 96.810 1,018,097 FOSL 91 93 69 253 A $ 33.500 123,193 FS 70 91 73 234 A $ 39.940 94,210 GDT 91 91 85 267 A $ 59.500 1,225,630 GENZ 90 92 90 272 B $ 50.560 1,234,993 GEOC 84 97 77 258 A $ 45.380 214,270 GICOF 98 95 92 285 A $ 15.000 104,313 GILTF 97 90 88 275 A $ 57.690 174,627 GNSS 84 97 94 275 A $ 25.250 470,587 GPI 73 87 66 226 A $ 20.630 78,193 GPS 96 94 93 283 A $ 66.250 1,515,323 GTW 95 88 75 258 A $ 65.630 2,425,424 GUC 93 96 93 282 A $ 84.560 703,047 HD 95 91 74 260 A $ 63.750 3,478,177 HDI 94 92 71 257 A $ 56.500 551,163 HH 95 90 63 248 B $ 15.940 108,707 IBI 86 95 93 274 A $ 44.250 500,203 IBM 90 87 75 252 B $ 172.380 5,120,797 INSS 99 92 79 270 A $ 64.560 278,310 INTC 85 87 94 266 A $ 116.690 19,643,276 ISCA 86 93 83 262 A $ 50.000 89,387 ITGI 99 91 82 272 A $ 50.130 94,647 JAKK 99 96 67 262 A $ 17.500 151,057 JBL 82 96 84 262 A $ 38.500 1,089,980 KIDE 77 99 69 245 B $ 31.500 211,513 KSU 89 85 65 239 A $ 53.690 436,390 KSWS 77 98 87 262 A $ 54.000 156,947 LEVL 88 95 94 277 B $ 47.440 2,419,593 LLTC 83 92 94 269 A $ 50.060 1,618,537 LOW 93 94 74 261 B $ 63.810 1,832,063 LXK 97 94 81 272 A $ 103.810 702,980 MCD 77 89 87 253 A $ 44.380 4,308,414 MCHP 80 87 79 246 B $ 35.310 656,313 MCRL 96 90 94 280 A $ 50.750 124,807 MERQ 73 91 77 241 A $ 32.000 403,007 MHP 81 87 70 238 B $ 54.060 625,783 MNMD 98 93 85 276 A $ 98.000 150,817 MSFT 99 94 94 287 A $ 178.130 18,139,640 MSPG 77 98 99 274 B $ 92.250 851,117 MWD 93 92 65 250 A $ 102.630 2,225,847 MXIM 89 91 94 274 A $ 50.130 1,407,813 NEON 80 98 77 255 B $ 58.250 869,367 NOVL 77 96 91 264 B $ 25.380 8,183,152 NPCI 75 91 87 253 B $ 17.060 112,930 NSOL 84 99 98 281 A $ 106.500 3,324,686 NT 88 85 88 261 B $ 62.000 1,990,120 NTAP 98 97 79 274 A $ 51.130 1,048,417 OCLI 89 98 68 255 B $ 46.190 153,097 OMC 92 93 81 266 A $ 77.500 718,003 ORBK 90 88 95 273 A $ 48.440 138,090 ORCL 97 87 77 261 A $ 27.500 19,480,792 OSSI 89 91 87 267 A $ 32.060 1,252,755 OSTE 73 94 85 252 A $ 30.250 202,250 PCLE 76 89 83 248 A $ 41.750 105,507 PEGS 80 96 82 258 B $ 40.130 150,733 PFE 89 85 62 236 A $ 135.000 2,490,213 PLCE 99 97 93 289 A $ 26.310 176,860 PNU 74 87 62 223 B $ 62.130 1,547,297 POS 88 93 81 262 A $ 80.190 122,097 POWI 72 97 84 253 B $ 30.130 264,417 PSUN 93 95 93 281 A $ 31.130 487,150 PVN 98 97 85 280 A $ 107.690 879,287 PVSW 76 89 77 242 A $ 16.810 160,840 QLGC 98 97 94 289 A $ 60.630 524,117 RFMD 80 99 93 272 A $ 83.750 373,667 RTRSY 75 88 82 245 A $ 79.750 224,623 SANM 97 91 84 272 A $ 59.000 946,587 SCH 94 98 96 288 A $ 93.000 2,197,667 SEBL 99 94 77 270 A $ 47.750 932,243 SFP 99 96 72 267 A $ 26.000 94,897 SLR 96 95 93 284 A $ 46.940 1,821,483 SNPS 95 85 77 257 A $ 49.880 662,113 SNS 94 90 69 253 A $ 69.380 835,580 SONC 91 87 87 265 A $ 27.060 129,293 SORC 75 94 82 251 A $ 12.190 99,620 SPLS 96 93 64 253 B $ 32.690 3,385,460 SPNSF 76 93 77 246 A $ 10.250 320,023 SUNW 94 97 75 266 A $ 116.500 7,796,087 SWS 76 89 96 261 A $ 25.690 88,097 SYKE 99 90 82 271 A $ 29.000 289,830 T 83 87 92 262 B $ 83.060 9,496,877 TAGS 97 95 70 262 A $ 36.500 142,507 TAN 73 88 65 226 B $ 60.440 720,460 TCAT 85 93 96 274 A $ 45.440 328,247 TIF 90 95 89 274 A $ 73.000 237,793 TJX 93 92 93 278 B $ 34.060 1,132,797 TLAB 98 93 88 279 A $ 97.190 2,658,420 TMPW 88 96 81 265 B $ 64.130 417,910 TOM 97 88 70 255 A $ 70.250 344,253 TRK 87 92 83 262 B $ 36.000 170,463 TSFW 99 95 77 271 A $ 46.880 161,830 TVGIA 96 92 84 272 A $ 29.380 156,947 UNPH 96 97 88 281 A $ 106.940 780,147 USF 93 90 61 244 B $ 30.750 2,509,860 UTX 91 91 69 251 B $ 132.000 775,043 VISX 77 99 97 273 A $ 95.250 825,093 VOD 96 89 92 277 A $ 172.190 466,587 VRTS 99 94 77 270 A $ 77.250 610,160 VTSS 97 93 94 284 A $ 48.250 1,221,893 WAT 98 94 77 269 A $ 101.560 141,243 WCOM 82 95 92 269 B $ 89.880 10,881,138 WMT 87 91 90 268 B $ 91.560 3,913,710 WTSLA 91 86 93 270 A $ 33.250 132,480 XIRC 77 91 91 259 A $ 29.380 318,147 XLNX 79 95 94 268 A $ 37.380 3,844,956 XOMD 97 95 66 258 B $ 39.810 93,953 XYLN 75 97 91 263 A $ 36.720 3,087,210 YHOO 84 99 99 282 A $ 171.380 6,960,606 ZQK 96 96 70 262 A $ 41.380 139,083 - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: [CANSLIM] Excessive Valuations Date: 29 Mar 1999 20:30:01 -0500 As just a comment on all the talk, including from Greenspan, on the excessive valuations in the US market, consider this: why are we seeing so many solid US companies being bought out by major European companies, oftentimes at a considerable premium to mkt prices? And it's not limited to just the USA, see below for just two examples today. MAJOR COMPANY/INDUSTRY NEWS: (All prices as of 10:35 a.m. ET) ** Britain's BP Amoco Plc (BPA: 104-1/8, + 3-11/16) confirmed it was in merger talks with Atlantic Richfield Co (ARC: 72-1/8, +6-3/4) of the U.S. BP said no definite agreement had been reached and would not comment further. According to a U.S. source overnight, BP would pay $77 a share or $25 billion for Arco. BP is already the world's third largest oil company after its acquisition of Amoco completed at the end of 1998. INTERNATIONAL NEWS: (All prices as of 10:35 a.m. ET) ** Renault SA and Nissan Motor Co. (NSANY: 7-19/32, - 1/32) formally reached an alliance on Saturday that gives the French group a greater global reach and provides a bailout for the heavily indebted number two Japanese carmaker. Nissan's board of directors held an extraordinary meeting to approve Renault's $5.3 billion offer to take a 35 percent stake in the nation's second-largest automaker in a move which would give Renault veto over key management decisions. Tom W stkguru@netside.net ICQ # 5568838 - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: musicant@autobahn.org (Dan Musicant) Subject: Re: Small Cap Rotation (was Re: Small Caps (was Re: [CANSLIM] c&h)) Date: 30 Mar 1999 01:46:35 GMT On Sun, 28 Mar 1999 20:44:02 EST, you wrote: :Dan, : :Thanks for the supportive vote of confidence.In the meantime,I will = dream :along with you.Let's see how the Russell fairs Monday as well as the = rest of :the week.Remember,it is always darkest before the the dawn.A corny = cliche,but :I could not resist.Chris. : Hi Chris, I don't resent your "corniness". However, I am no longer sitting on pins and needles waiting on the small caps. I've been doing quite well since abandoning my biases and getting in synch with the winners. Knock on wood. Good luck to all! Dan - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: FBNAirPLT s Subject: [CANSLIM] Acc/Dis Numbers Date: 29 Mar 1999 20:37:27 -0800 (PST) Here are the latest Acc/Dis Numbers: Date A B C D E AB/A:E %E 3/17/99 969 2448 1357 1213 573 52% 9% 3/18/99 963 2401 1418 1165 597 51% 9% 3/19/99 960 2396 1424 1177 606 51% 9% 3/22/99 990 2423 1390 1154 603 52% 9% 3/23/99 977 2369 1362 1196 651 51% 10% 3/24/99 953 2357 1356 1229 654 51% 10% 3/25/99 838 2272 1353 1352 707 48% 11% 3/26/99 824 2282 1365 1336 711 48% 11% 3/29/99 856 2370 1344 1284 665 49% 10% Spreedsheet version Date,A,B,C,D,E,AB/A:E,%E 3/15/99,977,2467,1359,1179,596,52%,9% 3/16/99,960,2449,1372,1209,577,52%,9% 3/17/99,969,2448,1357,1213,573,52%,9% 3/18/99,963,2401,1418,1165,597,51%,9% 3/19/99,960,2396,1424,1177,606,51%,9% 3/22/99,990,2423,1390,1154,603,52%,9% 3/23/99,977,2369,1362,1196,651,51%,10% 3/24/99,953,2357,1356,1229,654,51%,10% 3/25/99,838,2272,1353,1352,707,48%,11% 3/26/99,824,2282,1365,1336,711,48%,11% 3/29/99,856,2370,1344,1284,665,49%,10% Robert _________________________________________________________ Do You Yahoo!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Peter Newell" Subject: [CANSLIM] Breakouts continuations - CMVT, CLE, LXK(extended), CSN(still standing by) Date: 30 Mar 1999 09:02:41 -0800 CMVT the chart is beautiful - somethings funcky with the fundies, looks like they were redone or something maybe Tom can explain CLE - this is a continuation breakout, is this a place for a pyramid buy? LXK - LXK is extended but has real strong fundamentals and is a market leader, which I like to jump all over. CSN broke out three days ago is a market leader and is forming a short flag(for lack of better term) at the high end of the break out if it goes I'd expect a short quick explosion to the upside. Happy hunting, Peter Newell - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Peter Newell" Subject: [CANSLIM] QQQ, Nasdaq 100 Index Performance figures Date: 30 Mar 1999 10:31:20 -0800 Does anyone have info on this? I saw a nice writeup in thestreet.com but can't find it, something about my trial expiring. Thanks, Peter Newell - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Peter Newell" Subject: [CANSLIM] CMVT B/O continues Date: 30 Mar 1999 10:31:56 -0800 CMVT is breaking out on heavy volume. Peter Newell - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: rolatzi Subject: [CANSLIM] B/O of NOK.A Date: 30 Mar 1999 09:16:34 -0800 (PST) Nokia is breaking out after basing in a cup and handle for 12 weeks. The volume of the breakout looks a little suspect but it is a big cap. It may yet make 50% above its average daily volume. I'm going in but am not in yet. ciao, rolatzi _________________________________________________________ Do You Yahoo!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "james sullivan" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] QQQ, Nasdaq 100 Index Performance figures Date: 30 Mar 1999 16:55:28 -0500 >Does anyone have info on this? Peter, this was just recently written about in IBD in the past week or two...it also included QVA, the NAV of the naz100 not much help, i know, but that's the best i got.... - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Marc Laniado" Subject: [CANSLIM] Breakouts! Date: 30 Mar 1999 20:15:11 +0100 NITE is extraordinarily powerful and has just broken out for the second time on a flat base. ADCT has also broken out of a rather unruly flat base. CMVT is approaching the peak which it needs to break through. It has broken through the peak of the handle on heavy volume. INSS is making a cup of a handle Marc E Laniado marclaniado@msn.com begin 666 Marc Elie Laniado.vcf M0D5'24XZ5D-!4D0-"DXZ3&%N:6%D;SM-87)C.T5L:64-"D9..DUA Subject: CMVT (Re: [CANSLIM] Breakouts continuations - CMVT, CLE, LXK(extended), CSN(still standing by)) Date: 30 Mar 1999 22:49:43 -0500 Peter, not sure what you mean about the fundies on CMVT. This is one stock I have avoided after giving it tepid support as a penny stock about a decade ago as it nearly went bankrupt before its third trip to the money well in less than two years. Just think, I could own 1000 shares today (about $84,000) for about $1500 then, if I correctly recall its reverse split ratio. That's 40X over a decade! If I had only known! Some memories are really not worth revisiting! Tom W stkguru@netside.net ICQ # 5568838 -----Original Message----- LXK(extended), CSN(still standing by) CMVT the chart is beautiful - somethings funcky with the fundies, looks like they were redone or something maybe Tom can explain - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Rob Miller" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Breakouts! Date: 30 Mar 1999 23:10:14 -0500 ADCT broke out of a rather large base (broadening formation) going back a couple of years. Look at a weekly chart spanning 6 or more years and its easy to see. Considering the size of the base, the move up should be a nice one. Rob ----- Original Message ----- Sent: Tuesday, March 30, 1999 2:15 PM > NITE is extraordinarily powerful and has just broken out for the second time > on a flat base. > ADCT has also broken out of a rather unruly flat base. > CMVT is approaching the peak which it needs to break through. It has broken > through the peak of the handle on heavy volume. > INSS is making a cup of a handle > Marc E Laniado > marclaniado@msn.com > > > > ---- > > > > - > > - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: musicant@autobahn.org (Dan Musicant) Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] CMVT B/O continues Date: 31 Mar 1999 05:03:12 GMT On Tue, 30 Mar 1999 10:31:56 -0800, you wrote: :CMVT is breaking out on heavy volume. : :Peter Newell : I have to admit that the chart looks pretty good. However, today's action did not confirm a breakout. Volume was only around 30% more than average, and the stock ended the day down about 1% overall. Dan - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Connie Mack Rea Subject: [CANSLIM] DELL [Connie Mack] Date: 31 Mar 1999 09:55:22 -0500 DELL has broken through its downtrend line. The next resistance is 44; and after that, 45.12. I do not intend to let any go at 44 unless my SloSto and MACD show intraday weakness. The 3/7/10 EMA has just this minute given a First and Second Level buy. I will strongly consider letting one half of my positions go around 45. Connie Mack - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Peter Newell" Subject: Re: CMVT (Re: [CANSLIM] Breakouts continuations - CMVT, CLE, LXK(extended), CSN(still standing by)) Date: 31 Mar 1999 09:52:49 -0800 On QP2 they show no revenue, no earnings yet its a 97 EPS stock. yahoo shows more info Peter -----Original Message----- LXK(extended), CSN(still standing by)) >Peter, not sure what you mean about the fundies on CMVT. >This is one stock I have avoided after giving it tepid >support as a penny stock about a decade ago as it nearly >went bankrupt before its third trip to the money well in >less than two years. Just think, I could own 1000 shares >today (about $84,000) for about $1500 then, if I correctly >recall its reverse split ratio. That's 40X over a decade! If >I had only known! Some memories are really not worth >revisiting! > >Tom W >stkguru@netside.net >ICQ # 5568838 > > >-----Original Message----- >From: Peter Newell >To: canslim@lists.xmission.com >Date: Tuesday, March 30, 1999 9:06 AM >Subject: [CANSLIM] Breakouts continuations - CMVT, CLE, >LXK(extended), CSN(still standing by) > > >CMVT the chart is beautiful - somethings funcky with the >fundies, looks like >they were redone or something maybe Tom can explain > > > > >- > > - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Peter Newell" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] CMVT B/O continues Date: 31 Mar 1999 09:55:43 -0800 I Agree. Looked pretty good at 87 and heavy volume at midday then it fell with the market. Still held 80% of the five point gain from previous day on slightly lower volume very positive will. I will hold on for now. Peter Newell -----Original Message----- On Tue, 30 Mar 1999 10:31:56 -0800, you wrote: :CMVT is breaking out on heavy volume. : :Peter Newell : I have to admit that the chart looks pretty good. However, today's action did not confirm a breakout. Volume was only around 30% more than average, and the stock ended the day down about 1% overall. Dan - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Johan Van Houtven Subject: [CANSLIM] 'M' Dow Transports and Dow Utilities Date: 31 Mar 1999 09:47:43 +0200 Does anyone watch the daily Dow Transports and Dow Utilities indexes? If so, what knowlegde do you derive from them? I would guess that Dow Utilities stands for the prices of energy (oil, gas, electricity etc). So if Dow Utilities is down due to lower oil prices chances are that tranports will benefit (due to lower energy costs), right? If energy costs are down, other industries that use this energy benefit. Question: Whu do Transports and Utilities sometimes move in sync for a while? Dow Transports was up nicely yesterday 30/03 (due to DAL bullish news probably). Dow Utilities was down and broke the 200SMA (again). -- Johan Van Houtven - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Peter Newell" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] 'M' Dow Transports and Dow Utilities Date: 31 Mar 1999 10:53:09 -0800 I pay mild attention, transports they probably show that the economy is moving because they do good when the economy, utilities may be the same but with deregulation etc., I'd think this would change the landscape. One of the things that convinced me a bottom was occurring in Oct was the fact that the electric utilities were hitting new highs very predominantly then rolled over with high volume selling. -----Original Message----- >Does anyone watch the daily Dow Transports and Dow Utilities indexes? If >so, what knowlegde do you derive from them? > >I would guess that Dow Utilities stands for the prices of energy (oil, gas, >electricity etc). So if Dow Utilities is down due to lower oil prices >chances are that tranports will benefit (due to lower energy costs), right? >If energy costs are down, other industries that use this energy benefit. > >Question: Whu do Transports and Utilities sometimes move in sync for a while? > >Dow Transports was up nicely yesterday 30/03 (due to DAL bullish news >probably). Dow Utilities was down and broke the 200SMA (again). > > > >-- Johan Van Houtven > > > >- > > - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: rolatzi Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] CMVT B/O continues Date: 31 Mar 1999 07:57:43 -0800 (PST) While down this morning the volume is very light. BTW, I am keeping my eyes on INSS which is another classic cup and handle formation. B/O will be at 71, currently at 69.+ ciao, rolatzi --- Peter Newell wrote: > I Agree. > Looked pretty good at 87 and heavy volume at midday then it > fell with the > market. > Still held 80% of the five point gain from previous day on > slightly lower > volume very positive will. I will hold on for now. > > Peter Newell > -----Original Message----- > From: Dan Musicant > To: canslim@lists.xmission.com > Date: Tuesday, March 30, 1999 9:06 PM > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] CMVT B/O continues > > > On Tue, 30 Mar 1999 10:31:56 -0800, you wrote: > > :CMVT is breaking out on heavy volume. > : > :Peter Newell > : > I have to admit that the chart looks pretty good. However, > today's > action did not confirm a breakout. Volume was only around 30% > more than > average, and the stock ended the day down about 1% overall. > > Dan > > > - > > > > > - > > _________________________________________________________ Do You Yahoo!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: TM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] CMVT B/O continues-split day Date: 31 Mar 1999 09:01:58 -0800 (PST) http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/current/oli_stocksplit.htx?source=htx/http2_ TM --- Peter Newell wrote: > I Agree. > Looked pretty good at 87 and heavy volume at midday then it fell with the > market. > Still held 80% of the five point gain from previous day on slightly lower > volume very positive will. I will hold on for now. > > Peter Newell > -----Original Message----- > From: Dan Musicant > To: canslim@lists.xmission.com > Date: Tuesday, March 30, 1999 9:06 PM > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] CMVT B/O continues > > > On Tue, 30 Mar 1999 10:31:56 -0800, you wrote: > > :CMVT is breaking out on heavy volume. > : > :Peter Newell > : > I have to admit that the chart looks pretty good. However, today's > action did not confirm a breakout. Volume was only around 30% more than > average, and the stock ended the day down about 1% overall. > > Dan > > > - > > > > > - > > _________________________________________________________ Do You Yahoo!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Charles Bentley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] QQQ, Nasdaq 100 Index Performance figures Date: 31 Mar 1999 20:53:49 -600 On 30 Mar 99 at 10:31, Peter Newell wrote: > Does anyone have info on this? ======================================================= $$$$$ THE NASDAQ 100 TRUST How would you like to be able to buy the following stocks in one purchase: Microsoft, Intel, MCI Worldcom, Dell, Cisco and EBAY? Now you can do this in the new Nasdaq product called the Nasdaq 100 Trust which is traded on the American Stock Exchange (ASE) under the symbol QQQ and known as "the Q's." We mentioned it two weeks ago when it started trading but we must tell you that it is proving VERY popular. It was 2nd most active on the ASE last week, trading over 20 million shares. The most active was the Spider - the trust that consists of all the stocks in the S&P 500 with the symbol of SPY. It traded over 33 million shares and has been the most active stock there for months and months. What is the Q's? It is a stock that mimics the Nasdaq 100. It IS the Nasdaq 100. You can buy 10 shares or 100 shares or 1000 shares depending on how you want to allocate your assets. The Nasdaq 100 consists of 100 stocks that have the highest market caps on Nasdaq and the index and the new trust are capitalization weighted. This means that Microsoft, the largest market cap in the world, has a 17% share of the index. Intel has 7%, MCI WorldCom has 6% and Dell has 4%. So if you don't have enough Microsoft (and anyone who has been reading this report for the past months must have at least 100 shares at this point - yes!), then buying the new Nasdaq Trust will give you a healthy chunk of Microsoft. You can daytrade the Q's during the day or you can put it away and keep it for years as good investors are wont to do (!) The trust vehicle is very safe, as each dollar is invested in the actual stocks of the index and held in escrow in a major money-center bank for safekeeping. The nice thing is that you can buy, sell or short the stock at anytime during the day. You don't have to wait for the close of trading to get your money out. One of the disadvantages of the new index mutual funds is that you can't liquidate until the close of trading. Thus if the market is collapsing and you want to get out, you can't. With the Nasdaq Trust you can sell at any time during the day and if you are brave, you can short the stock (with no uptick rule) to take advantage of market declines. (We will discuss shorting in upcoming issues.) ========================================================== Charles Bentley Solution Group Voice (713) 729-3333 7457 Harwin Dr. Suite 362 FAX (713) 243-9591 Houston, Texas 77036-2017 - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Patrick Wahl" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] 'M' Dow Transports and Dow Utilities Date: 31 Mar 1999 20:36:43 -0800 > Does anyone watch the daily Dow Transports and Dow Utilities indexes? If > so, what knowlegde do you derive from them? I think the Utilities are fairly closely tied to interest rates, since a big reason for owning a utility stock is the dividend yield. I can't really figure those Transports out. I would think they should have some relationship to the price of oil, but not sure that is the case. - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] 'M' Dow Transports and Dow Utilities Date: 31 Mar 1999 23:09:03 -0500 OK, Johan, time for the Professor to wade into this question. Bear in mind I am free thinking which, after another 14 hour work day, is worth just what you paid for my opinion and thoughts. I do pay attention to the DOW Transportation Index, primarily because of my past following of parts of the DOW Theory, which among other things dictates that when both the DOW Industrials and DOW Transportation Indexes hit new highs within a reasonably short time span, you are in a bull mkt. However, more important to me in recent years is that the Trans signals changes in the economy. For example, when you begin to recover from a recessionary cycle, the Trans is usually the first index to signal a positive trend. Gives you a chance to get ready early on for the rest of the mkt to break out. Reason is economically based, when the economic activity begins to pick up, the first effect is shown in the transportation of goods from raw materials to finished goods. Unfortunately, we haven't had a decent recession in so long that the Trans today is largely held hostage by the airlines. While the airlines have benefited from lower fuel prices, they have also had potential earnings restrained by a total inability to successfully and competently raise prices. Every time one airline raises prices, they are quickly followed to the penny by half a dozen other monopolistic members of this industry, and then a few days later when bookings fall off and complaints soar, they back off the price increase. Result is usually more bad PR than revenue increases. Right now, with us in a late stage economic expansion but still bubbling along nicely without inflation, the Trans trend is not so useful to me, but I still watch it. On the Utilities index, the members of this are mostly energy generating cos, but include if memory serves me correctly, several water utilities as well. Because utilities generally carry an above average (for a US corp) dividend yield, and tend to be more stable in bearish market conditions, they are a good index for bearish sentiment. I don't follow them regularly, being so cautiously bullish most of the time, but do peek at the index periodically. When there is a flight to safe havens, esp for the mutual funds that must by charter remain essentially fully invested, this is one place they go when they must move cash out of growth stocks or from a cash position to an investment (e.g. at the end of each qtr when their investment position must meet prior established percentages). The principal is relatively safe, and they get a good yield while they wait for the moment to move back into more aggressive stocks. Except for times of major moves in the Utilities index, the individual stocks in this index offer minimum chance for capital gains, but are likely to preserve capital better than most other stock groups, and give a yield which beats money markets in the meantime. Like the other DOW indexes, the Trans consists of specific utilities cos, possibly someone can find a list on the net as I have absolutely no idea where my last list is buried. Just because energy costs are down (tho rising sharply in the past month) doesn't mean cos using large quantities of energy have been able to keep the benefits of this. Mostly, they have had to either pass along the savings to remain competitive, or in some cases use the savings to improve their operation or equipment. Price competition remains fierce in most of the industry sectors. Tom W stkguru@netside.net ICQ # 5568838 -----Original Message----- Does anyone watch the daily Dow Transports and Dow Utilities indexes? If so, what knowlegde do you derive from them? I would guess that Dow Utilities stands for the prices of energy (oil, gas, electricity etc). So if Dow Utilities is down due to lower oil prices chances are that tranports will benefit (due to lower energy costs), right? If energy costs are down, other industries that use this energy benefit. Question: Whu do Transports and Utilities sometimes move in sync for a while? Dow Transports was up nicely yesterday 30/03 (due to DAL bullish news probably). Dow Utilities was down and broke the 200SMA (again). -- Johan Van Houtven - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: CMVT (Re: [CANSLIM] Breakouts continuations - CMVT, CLE, LXK(extended), CSN(still standing by)) Date: 31 Mar 1999 23:15:11 -0500 Peter, I would have to say you have to consider your sources. According to DGO, past 4 qtrs earnings and revenues are as follows (fiscal yr 99 ended Jan 99): Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 ern .51 .55 .62 .66 rev 160.5 167.4 178.1 190.1 In all cases both ern and rev were up anywhere from 26% to 132% over the comparable qtr in the prior year. For the past five years, net earnings were 2.33 (99); 1.61 (98); 1.16 (97); .76 (96); and .55 (95). Five yr ern growth rate is 35% and ROE is 25%, thus suggesting to me that, at a minimum, the data that DGO (and DG) is using substantiates the EPS rating of 98. Note that debt of 50% is not the bugaboo it once was due to current low interest rates compared to historic levels for aggressively growing cos. If you want to do another check on the accuracy of your data sources, go to the SEC site and pull up some of the most recent 10Q quarterly or the latest 10K annual report, and see what the co reported to the SEC. That is likely to be the most authoritative source. DGO does not indicate any adjustments to the data above for non-recurring events, so should closely agree with what they filed with the SEC. Tom W stkguru@netside.net ICQ # 5568838 -----Original Message----- CMVT, CLE, LXK(extended), CSN(still standing by)) On QP2 they show no revenue, no earnings yet its a 97 EPS stock. yahoo shows more info Peter -----Original Message----- CLE, LXK(extended), CSN(still standing by)) >Peter, not sure what you mean about the fundies on CMVT. >This is one stock I have avoided after giving it tepid >support as a penny stock about a decade ago as it nearly >went bankrupt before its third trip to the money well in >less than two years. Just think, I could own 1000 shares >today (about $84,000) for about $1500 then, if I correctly >recall its reverse split ratio. That's 40X over a decade! If >I had only known! Some memories are really not worth >revisiting! > >Tom W >stkguru@netside.net >ICQ # 5568838 > > >-----Original Message----- >From: Peter Newell >To: canslim@lists.xmission.com >Date: Tuesday, March 30, 1999 9:06 AM >Subject: [CANSLIM] Breakouts continuations - CMVT, CLE, >LXK(extended), CSN(still standing by) > > >CMVT the chart is beautiful - somethings funcky with the >fundies, looks like >they were redone or something maybe Tom can explain > -