From: "Peter Newell" Subject: [CANSLIM] Re: CMVT (Fundamentals incorrect in QP2) Date: 01 Apr 1999 09:58:20 -0800 Thanks Tom this is the first time i've seen qp2 with bad data guess thats why I still double check. Maybe getting to DGO time. Peter Newell -----Original Message----- LXK(extended), CSN(still standing by)) >Peter, > >I would have to say you have to consider your sources. >According to DGO, past 4 qtrs earnings and revenues are as >follows (fiscal yr 99 ended Jan 99): > Q1 Q2 Q3 >Q4 >ern .51 .55 .62 >.66 >rev 160.5 167.4 178.1 >190.1 > >In all cases both ern and rev were up anywhere from 26% to >132% over the comparable qtr in the prior year. For the past >five years, net earnings were 2.33 (99); 1.61 (98); 1.16 >(97); .76 (96); and .55 (95). Five yr ern growth rate is 35% >and ROE is 25%, thus suggesting to me that, at a minimum, >the data that DGO (and DG) is using substantiates the EPS >rating of 98. Note that debt of 50% is not the bugaboo it >once was due to current low interest rates compared to >historic levels for aggressively growing cos. > >If you want to do another check on the accuracy of your data >sources, go to the SEC site and pull up some of the most >recent 10Q quarterly or the latest 10K annual report, and >see what the co reported to the SEC. That is likely to be >the most authoritative source. DGO does not indicate any >adjustments to the data above for non-recurring events, so >should closely agree with what they filed with the SEC. > >Tom W >stkguru@netside.net >ICQ # 5568838 > > >-----Original Message----- >From: Peter Newell >To: canslim@lists.xmission.com >Date: Wednesday, March 31, 1999 9:56 AM >Subject: Re: CMVT (Re: [CANSLIM] Breakouts continuations - >CMVT, CLE, LXK(extended), CSN(still standing by)) > > >On QP2 they show no revenue, no earnings yet its a 97 EPS >stock. yahoo shows >more info > >Peter >-----Original Message----- >From: Tom Worley >To: canslim@lists.xmission.com >Date: Tuesday, March 30, 1999 8:07 PM >Subject: CMVT (Re: [CANSLIM] Breakouts continuations - CMVT, >CLE, >LXK(extended), CSN(still standing by)) > > >>Peter, not sure what you mean about the fundies on CMVT. >>This is one stock I have avoided after giving it tepid >>support as a penny stock about a decade ago as it nearly >>went bankrupt before its third trip to the money well in >>less than two years. Just think, I could own 1000 shares >>today (about $84,000) for about $1500 then, if I correctly >>recall its reverse split ratio. That's 40X over a decade! >If >>I had only known! Some memories are really not worth >>revisiting! >> >>Tom W >>stkguru@netside.net >>ICQ # 5568838 >> >> >>-----Original Message----- >>From: Peter Newell >>To: canslim@lists.xmission.com >>Date: Tuesday, March 30, 1999 9:06 AM >>Subject: [CANSLIM] Breakouts continuations - CMVT, CLE, >>LXK(extended), CSN(still standing by) >> >> >>CMVT the chart is beautiful - somethings funcky with the >>fundies, looks like >>they were redone or something maybe Tom can explain >> > > >- > > - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com (Jeff Salisbury) Subject: [CANSLIM] Changing your canslim subscription Date: 01 Apr 1999 08:00:02 -0700 This is a monthly posting to the CANLSLIM group. Frequently, people sign up for the canslim list and then are overwhelmed by the volume of the email. There are two remedies for this problem: 1) You can leave our group, or 2) you can switch to the digest version which "conglomerates" many canslim messages into one large message. To change your configuration, email a message to: majordomo@xmission.com The remove yourself from the canslim list, write in the body of the email: unsubscribe canslim To add yourself to the digest version of the canslim list, write in the body of the email: subscribe canslim-digest For general help with majordomo commands, write in the body of the email: help If you need further clarification, write me directly at: canslim-owner@lists.xmission.com Best Regards, Jeff Salisbury - CANSLIM list admin / owner - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Johan Van Houtven Subject: non [CANSLIM] Gaps - Are they often filled? Why? Date: 01 Apr 1999 20:42:03 +0200 1. Are gaps almost always filled? 2. Why does it (often) happen ? Is their a logical explanation? Can you explain the behaviour of traders/investors that results in the filling of the gap? Here's what I found on the net at http://www.tradertalk.com/ : A gap on a price chart is exactly that, a gap. It is an empty space, between the high of one trading period and the low of the very next trading period or vice versa. The trading period may be daily, occasionally weekly and rarely monthly. Gaps are easily recognized on price bar charts. The market abhors gaps. Gaps are eventually filled, usually sooner than later, rarely never. [snip] A breakaway gap occurs after a trend pattern has been completed and heralds the birth of a new trend. The completion of the previous trend or occasionally the news of some major importance to the market (e.g. takeover announcement) attracts a mass of new buyers. To take advantage of and to satiate the new buying demand the auction opens above the previous close and the momentum of buying rapidly pushes the price higher. If the new trend is to be of major proportions the gap should not be filled in the subsequent trading days. In fact such gaps usually are not filled for some time, maybe weeks or months, very occasionally never. If in the ensuing days the gap is filled care should be taken in interpreting the significance of the gap. If the initial enthusiasm has waned so quickly it is unlikely that a sweeping new trend is underway; however, the new trend may survive but its rate of development will likely be more orderly. Johan - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Tim Fisher Subject: [CANSLIM] GMST Date: 01 Apr 1999 13:02:30 -0800 One of my Killer CASLI stocks, GMST went quackers yesterday while I wasn't looking (which is most of the time). It went skyrocketing on a huge volume spike the likes of which I have never seen. Pull up a 5-min chart on it and see if you can figure out what went down - I know I can't. No news either. Anyway it's extended from the breakout price by about 20%, but then again how could you have caught it unless you were watching intraday yesterday? Tim Fisher Ore-Rock-On and Pacific Fishery Biologists WWW Sites Tim@OreRockOn.com WWW: http://OreRockOn.com See naked fish and rocks! - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Connie Mack Rea Subject: [CANSLIM] ATML [Technical stuff.] Dividend Reinvestment. [Connie Mack] Date: 02 Apr 1999 08:51:47 -0500 On ATML, the OBV is positively divergent and has been so for a couple of months. MF shows a very modest and ambiguous positive divergence. The 3/7/10 EMA gave a First and Second Level buy with yesterday's close. The MACD is below the marker line and implies it will give a buy below the marker line if there is another strong close on Monday. The SloSto gave a buy after yesterday's close. ================================= There is a dividend reinvestment site worth looking at for those who wish to buy directly from a company: http://stock1.com/stock1.shtml Connie Mack - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com (Jeff Salisbury) Subject: [CANSLIM] Sending large files to the canslim group Date: 02 Apr 1999 08:00:02 -0700 Everyone, There are times when you may wish to share large files with our group (i.e. gif, jpeg, spreadsheets, etc). Our list is configured to reject large postings (even if they are properly encoded) since the sheer volume has caused problems in the past. As an alternative, we have provided an anonymous ftp site. To provide your file to the group, please follow these instructions: 1. Send your file to: ftp://ftp.xmission.com/pub/users/m/mcjathan/incoming/ If you need some help doing this step, there are ftp instructions below. 2. Send mail to me directly at "owner-canslim@xmission.com" telling me the name of the file that you uploaded. I will move the file from the incoming directory, to the canslim directory where people will be able to download your file. 3. After I notify you that the file has been moved to the canslim directory, you should send an email to the canslim group describing your file, and its URL (i.e. ftp://ftp.xmission.com/pub/users/m/mcjathan/GreatBoom.gif). Although this may seem unwieldy at first, it really isn't too bad and it solves more problems than it creates. You should note that I do not monitor my email on the weekends as closely as during the week. Therefore, steps 2-3 may take longer over a weekend. Best Regards, Jeff Salisbury =========================================================================== FTP Instructions: 1. Using Netscape, go to the URL: ftp://ftp.xmission.com/pub/users/m/mcjathan/incoming/ 2. On the Netscape "File" menu, select "Upload File..." This will open a file selection widget on your hard-drive. Select the file you wish to upload and hit the "Ok" button. At this point, your file will be uploaded. 3. Eventhough your file has been uploaded, you will not be able to see the file in your netscape browser. The reason for this is that the "incoming" directory is set to write-only for security reasons. - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: musicant@autobahn.org (Dan Musicant) Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] 'M' Dow Transports and Dow Utilities Date: 02 Apr 1999 15:47:28 GMT On Wed, 31 Mar 1999 20:36:43 -0800, you wrote: : :> Does anyone watch the daily Dow Transports and Dow Utilities indexes? = If :> so, what knowlegde do you derive from them? : :I think the Utilities are fairly closely tied to interest rates, since a= =20 :big reason for owning a utility stock is the dividend yield. I can't=20 :really figure those Transports out. I would think they should have=20 :some relationship to the price of oil, but not sure that is the case. : That is certainly the case. When the price of oil plummeted the airline stocks surged. You can see almost a daily opposition in those in fact. Dan : - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: [CANSLIM] DGO New Highs Date: 02 Apr 1999 18:32:19 -0500 Well, for those of you that look forward to my weekly post on this topic, you get it some hours early thanks to a closed US stock mkt, and a boss who announced that the entire section could leave at 2:30PM today so long as I left with them. It was either be lynched; or pack up, put away, and lock down. So this is what a six hour work day is like! Still, felt strange to drive home in the daylight. Didn't even put in a 60 hour work week this time, shucks. Anyway, on to business. Despite only four trading days, this list jumped sharply from the prior week to up over 40% in total to 206 stocks, and the ones meeting the basic 80/80 test even more strongly up 70% to 75. Suggests to me that there could be a lot of other "sleepers" lying just below their 12 month highs, perhaps with a constructive base, and with strong CS elements. Those of you using the much discussed computer software scanning packages could maybe augment this list with some of your own? Despite a lot of reasons why this mkt should correct, including lack of breadth, volume, quality of leadership, earnings erosion, etc, the economic reports and strong dollar continue to support a move to the upside. Much as I hate to admit it, forget the small caps for now, they may still have their "day in the sunshine", but it's still not happening, may as well wait till the thunderstorms are over. The name of the game remains big cap, liquidity, momentum, etc. However, pay attention to VIX, it's been trying it's best to get under 20, and has shown some nice moves downward even on days the mkt has been up. Anyhoo, for those readers patient to get this far, here's the list of 75 survivors (and you'll notice a number of big cap/big name stocks back on the list): ADVS, BCE, EAGL, TLAB, TIF, ADBE, ANF, LM, MWD, ADCT, EFII, LXK, ALD, ESRX, OMC, EMC, MAR, DL, CMVT, WAT, MTNT, CLE, QRSI, FNCO, CCL, NOKA, ADVP, GE, AMGN, ETM, SCH, POSIF, SUNW, LIN, WLFI, BVEW, JBL, UTX, ISCA, MSFT, POS, TRK, ICUB, TECH, TVGIA, DY, LEVL, BJICA, EDMC, AFL, AMES, SDLI, PRGX, NITE (the only one on the entire list to post a 99/99/A/A rating, disclaimer: having done much business with them, I like their operation tho don't own a share); LLTC, CATT, FON, PJAM, QCOM, IBI, COF, HRZ, HMC, JNJ, OCLI, NTAP, ETEK, FRK, FDO, CPWM, UNPH, BBBY, CPN, FLEX, DV. Happy Hunting. Tom W stkguru@netside.net ICQ # 5568838 - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Marc Laniado" Subject: [CANSLIM] New Highs Date: 03 Apr 1999 09:49:04 +0100 Dear Tom, Thank you for your posting. Why don't you own NITE? It broke out on Monday on twice normal volume having formed a cup and reached a peak with subsequent declining volume. Do you have a specific reason for not having it or are you looking for another buy point? Monday saw the mid caps do really well compared to the big and small caps. Don't you think its possibly this area that might be the area to search in? Look for'd to your reply! Marc Marc E Laniado marclaniado@msn.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Marc Laniado" Subject: [CANSLIM] Break outs Date: 03 Apr 1999 12:31:35 +0100 Dear All, How many people manage to catch stocks with reasonable patterns and CANSLIM characteristics as they break out? I missed QRSI, FNDTF and GICOF. They are out of range. I try and make a short list of stocks to watch, but still manage to miss them. What are on other people's short list? Consider coming up: PRGN: broke out in range BBBY: broke out just in range KSU: broke out FDO: broke out NTAP: broke out CMVT : broke out through peak of handle, to go through peak of left part of cup INSS: cup and handle TVGIA: broke out MAR PRGX ATYT OSSI secondary base that is loosening now I think Any other suggestions would be helpful for all of us to watch out for. Marc Marc E Laniado marclaniado@msn.com begin 666 Marc Elie Laniado.vcf M0D5'24XZ5D-!4D0-"DXZ3&%N:6%D;SM-87)C.T5L:64-"D9..DUA Subject: [CANSLIM] new highs by group Date: 03 Apr 1999 14:19:44 +0100 The groups with new highs are with No of hew highs, average EPS, average RS, group name 12 73 95 COMPUTER SOFTWR-ENTERPSE 12 88 96 TELECOMMUNICATIONS-EQUIP 10 39 99 INTERNET-ISP/CONTENT 7 63 90 MEDIA-RADIO/TV 7 35 96 TELECOMMUNICATIONS-SVCS 6 73 97 ELEC-SEMICONDUCTOR MFG 6 69 91 LEISURE-SERVICES 6 61 94 MEDICAL-BIOMED/GENETICS 6 53 84 MEDICAL-ETHICAL DRUGS 5 35 96 INTERNET-SOFTWARE 4 70 92 COMPUTER-SERVICES 4 33 99 INTERNET-E*COMMERCE 4 82 89 MEDICAL/DENTAL/SERV CANSLIM would, I presume, be most effective in the groups with earnings such as TELECOMMUNICATIONS-EQUIP, COMPUTER SOFTWR-ENTERPSE, MEDIA-RADIO/TV ELEC-SEMICONDUCTOR MFG MEDICAL/DENTAL/SERV Marc E Laniado marclaniado@msn.com begin 666 Marc Elie Laniado.vcf M0D5'24XZ5D-!4D0-"DXZ3&%N:6%D;SM-87)C.T5L:64-"D9..DUA Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] New Highs Date: 03 Apr 1999 09:57:34 -0500 Hi Marc, Because my funds are quite limited, I insist on some diversification, and want to own at least 200 to 300 shares of anything I buy, NITE is simply out of my budget. I prefer stocks under $20, tho have occasionally violated this preference, thus would have had to caught NITE back in mid Dec. However the RS didn't meet my criteria then. Tom W stkguru@netside.net ICQ # 5568838 -----Original Message----- Dear Tom, Thank you for your posting. Why don't you own NITE? It broke out on Monday on twice normal volume having formed a cup and reached a peak with subsequent declining volume. Do you have a specific reason for not having it or are you looking for another buy point? Monday saw the mid caps do really well compared to the big and small caps. Don't you think its possibly this area that might be the area to search in? Look for'd to your reply! Marc Marc E Laniado marclaniado@msn.com - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com (Jeff Salisbury) Subject: [CANSLIM] Accessing the discussion canslim archives... Date: 03 Apr 1999 08:00:02 -0700 From time to time, CANSLIM members may wish to browse the discussion archives. This posting provides instructions on how to access the archives. Thanks to David Cameron for compiling the essentials of this message. Here are the two ways to access the archives: 1. The best way is to use your web browser. To browse the archives, point your browser to: http://www.xmission.com/~mcjathan/cgi/lwgate.cgi/CANSLIM/ You can do simple key-word searches on the archive by going to: http://www.xmission.com/~mcjathan/canslim/search.html 2. (Not as convenient) via email: Send an email to majordomo@xmission.com with the following as the body of your message: "index canslim". Then send a follow up email to request an old email from either the "archive" or "latest" directory. Note that your request must be in the body of your email. For example: "get canslim latest/001" will retrieve file "001" from the "latest" directory. "get canslim archive/v01.n066" will retrieve file "v01.n066" from the "archive" dir. Best Regards, Jeff Salisbury - CANSLIM list owner/admin - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Dan Sutton" Subject: [CANSLIM] U/D ratio Date: 03 Apr 1999 08:44:32 -0700 I think this has been discussed before, but I can't find the answer in my database or by searching the CANSLIM archives...how is the U/D ratio calculated? - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: IMF STAFF Subject: [CANSLIM] Re: NITE Breakout Date: 03 Apr 1999 08:16:52 -0800 Yes, I picked up NITE a couple weeks ago using the StockTables.com Free screening tool to screen for stocks with a 99 Relative Strength Rank, and a good accumulation distribution reading.. http://www.stocktables.com I also like to set the Volume % screen for +50% or greater and if there are a number of them, I will turn on the "New High Button". This limits the screen to only stocks that are meeting the parameters, while also making new highs. RS - 99 A/D - A, B (+1,+2, +3, +4) VOL% - >50% NEW HIGH: (optional) By setting the screen for these parameters, you will find stocks that are clearly outperforming the market, and often have great momentum. They are more aggressive volatile stocks than climb and drop fast, I often hold them from 1 week to 6 weeks. So these trades are shorter term than the modified Canslim system that I use for trading stocks from 3 to 6 months. It saves me a lot of time scanning the fine print in the newspaper...and it is a FREE SITE! Have Fun Screening! Bill - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Johan Van Houtven Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Re: NITE Breakout Date: 03 Apr 1999 20:48:29 +0200 Bill, Are you in any way related with http://www.imfnet.com/ AKA The PitBull Investor, the producers of http://www.stocktables.com? I am asking since your email adress point to this site. At 08:16 AM 4/3/99 -0800, you wrote: >Yes, I picked up NITE a couple weeks ago using the StockTables.com Free >screening tool to screen for stocks with a 99 Relative Strength Rank, and a >good accumulation distribution reading.. >http://www.stocktables.com > >I also like to set the Volume % screen for +50% or greater and if there are >a number of them, I will turn on the "New High Button". > >This limits the screen to only stocks that are meeting the parameters, >while also making new highs. > >RS - 99 >A/D - A, B (+1,+2, +3, +4) >VOL% - >50% >NEW HIGH: (optional) > >By setting the screen for these parameters, you will find stocks that are >clearly outperforming the market, and often have great momentum. > >They are more aggressive volatile stocks than climb and drop fast, I often >hold them from 1 week to 6 weeks. > >So these trades are shorter term than the modified Canslim system that I >use for trading stocks from 3 to 6 months. > >It saves me a lot of time scanning the fine print in the newspaper...and it >is a FREE SITE! > >Have Fun Screening! >Bill > >- > > Johan - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Marc Laniado" Subject: [CANSLIM] YHOO Date: 03 Apr 1999 21:00:14 +0100 Who's watching the chart? Looks like a cup with handle and volume drying? Could break out again?? Any takers? Price 179.75 EPS 84 RS 99 SMR A A/D B Group RS 99 Group INTERNET-ISP/CONTENT 52 week high 222.5 52 week low 22.72 19% off high Marc Marc E Laniado begin 666 Marc Elie Laniado.vcf M0D5'24XZ5D-!4D0-"DXZ3&%N:6%D;SM-87)C.T5L:64-"D9..DUA Subject: [CANSLIM] financial ruminations Date: 03 Apr 1999 13:35:56 -0800 I thought this was somewhat interesting anyway, especially after returning to the working world after sveral years on my own and realizing work kinda stinks, may be of a too intangible nature for some people, but its a rumination on how to think about success - http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/current/superstar.htx?source=htx /http2_mw If the wrap around address is a bit confusing, go to the CBS Marketwatch page and under Perspectives on the front page, click on Pricing Peace of Mind. - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: mckeen@ix.netcom.com Subject: [CANSLIM] Trading on Expectations Date: 03 Apr 1999 18:19:14 -0600 (CST) Dave C. Agree with your points above and appreciate your sharing your methodology. Just want to add something here. I am still working on a system after trading for close to two years. I find that flexibility is important also. Sticking to a personal method, but always being open is healthy. By this I don't mean listening to every bit of advice and opinion that's available. I think exploring another avenue, looking at potential rather than only past performance such as the case with internet-related companies may be worthwhile. Reviewing trades frequently can highlight a recurring problem (for me that was placing automatic 8% stop loss below the price paid which, in too many cases, took me out of the trade just to see the stock go up. This happened in the volatile internet-related stocks). Basically, each person, as you and others have said, needs to find their own way of investing that brings them the success they're happy with. Regards, Mary - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] U/D ratio Date: 04 Apr 1999 11:19:23 -0400 Dan, I can't speak for any other sources, but DG/DGO calculates the daily Up/Down ratio as a 50 day ratio derived by dividing the total volume on days when the stock closed up from the previous day by total volume on days it closed down. A ratio greater than 1.0 implies a positive demand. From my experience, a CS stock should maintain at least a 0.8 ratio, and numbers much over 2.0 become insignificant in degree (e.g. a ratio of 1.8 and a ratio of 3.7 don't have much different significance, esp if the float is vastly different). Currently, many of my small caps with fantastic fundies carry a ratio well under 1.0, just another sign of how far out of favor small caps are now. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html -----Original Message----- I think this has been discussed before, but I can't find the answer in my database or by searching the CANSLIM archives...how is the U/D ratio calculated? - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Dan Sutton" Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] U/D ratio Date: 04 Apr 1999 09:33:48 -0600 Thanks Tom, I will plug that into my spreadsheet -----Original Message----- [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com] On Behalf Of Tom Worley Sent: Sunday, April 04, 1999 9:19 AM Dan, I can't speak for any other sources, but DG/DGO calculates the daily Up/Down ratio as a 50 day ratio derived by dividing the total volume on days when the stock closed up from the previous day by total volume on days it closed down. A ratio greater than 1.0 implies a positive demand. >From my experience, a CS stock should maintain at least a 0.8 ratio, and numbers much over 2.0 become insignificant in degree (e.g. a ratio of 1.8 and a ratio of 3.7 don't have much different significance, esp if the float is vastly different). Currently, many of my small caps with fantastic fundies carry a ratio well under 1.0, just another sign of how far out of favor small caps are now. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html -----Original Message----- I think this has been discussed before, but I can't find the answer in my database or by searching the CANSLIM archives...how is the U/D ratio calculated? - - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Chris Miller Subject: [CANSLIM] Possible good stock? Date: 04 Apr 1999 06:51:25 -0400 Well since I am very new to this and still in college, give me a little leeway in this ok? I was just finishing a report for a class and noticed this stock it has a very good EPS of late. It trades on low volume and is very near its low. The EPS have gone like this : 1.27, .91, .66, .44, .40.. The stock is AIR, AAR Corporation. Has anyone looked at this one yet or am I way off the mark here?? Chris Miller - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Patrick Wahl" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Possible good stock? Date: 04 Apr 1999 21:48:27 -0800 Date sent: Sun, 04 Apr 1999 06:51:25 -0400 > Well since I am very new to this and still in college, give me a > little leeway in this ok? I was just finishing a report for a class and > noticed this stock it has a very good EPS of late. It trades on low > volume and is very near its low. The EPS have gone like this : 1.27, > .91, .66, .44, .40.. The stock is AIR, AAR Corporation. Has anyone > looked at this one yet or am I way off the mark here?? A cursory look at it shows that the last quarter had only a 9% gain in revenues, and earnings are up year over year, but pretty flat across the last 4 quarters. Also, unless you really know something, I think it is best to avoid stocks that are near their lows, stocks usually go down for a reason, and frequently that reason only becomes public after the stock has really tanked. My cautionary tale on buying stuff that is making new lows is from a friend at work, who used to work at JD Edwards, so knows something about the business, bought the stock last fall, near a 52 week low, at maybe 35. The stock continued to fall, he continued to feel nothing was wrong, it was getting to be an even better bargain every time the price fell, it is now at 12, and the news is that their niche in the software business is in a slump that make take two years to come out of. The point is that someone knew something and it was reflected in the price action, even though no announcements had been made. - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Patrick Wahl" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] YHOO Date: 04 Apr 1999 21:48:27 -0800 > Who's watching the chart? > Looks like a cup with handle and volume drying? Could break out again?? > Any takers? It is looking like a consolidation pattern, might be getting ready to make another run. Given the way these internet stocks run when they move, it would probably be worth a shot if it spikes up out of its recent base. - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Patrick Wahl" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] YHOO Date: 04 Apr 1999 21:48:27 -0800 > Who's watching the chart? > Looks like a cup with handle and volume drying? Could break out again?? > Any takers? It is looking like a consolidation pattern, might be getting ready to make another run. Given the way these internet stocks run when they move, it would probably be worth a shot if it spikes up out of its recent base. - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Possible good stock? Date: 05 Apr 1999 01:10:25 -0400 Chris, In addition to Patrick's warnings about considering a stock trading near its lows, also recognize that an RS of 21 says the same thing, it's out of favor for whatever reason. Yes, the annual earnings growth has been substantial, but it appears to have stalled out in the past year, and ROE is only 13%. Management holdings are also only 7%, so they have little stake in changing things. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html -----Original Message----- Well since I am very new to this and still in college, give me a little leeway in this ok? I was just finishing a report for a class and noticed this stock it has a very good EPS of late. It trades on low volume and is very near its low. The EPS have gone like this : 1.27, .91, .66, .44, .40.. The stock is AIR, AAR Corporation. Has anyone looked at this one yet or am I way off the mark here?? Chris Miller - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] YHOO Date: 05 Apr 1999 01:13:30 -0400 Guess I'm just an old fuddy duddy at these internet stocks, but still have a hard time equating a market cap of $36 billion with annual sales of $300 million. Still, chart looks like this leader in its industry and favorite with the institutionals may be ready to rock and roll in one direction or another. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html -----Original Message----- > Who's watching the chart? > Looks like a cup with handle and volume drying? Could break out again?? > Any takers? It is looking like a consolidation pattern, might be getting ready to make another run. Given the way these internet stocks run when they move, it would probably be worth a shot if it spikes up out of its recent base. - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: musicant@autobahn.org (Dan Musicant) Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] YHOO Date: 05 Apr 1999 11:53:40 GMT On Mon, 5 Apr 1999 01:13:30 -0400, you wrote: :Guess I'm just an old fuddy duddy at these internet stocks, :but still have a hard time equating a market cap of $36 :billion with annual sales of $300 million. Still, chart :looks like this leader in its industry and favorite with the :institutionals may be ready to rock and roll in one :direction or another. : :Tom Worley I had to restrain myself from posting to this list about Yhoo a couple of days ago, but now that the thread is here, I'll jump in with my .02 dollars. I'm seriously thinking about buying a bunch this morning. I've been following the Internets (the Leading *leading group*...any arguments?), for some time now. The deal between Broadcast.com and Yhoo has been no secret for a while now, and last week's firming up just underscored it, but may be enough to send this flyer ever higher. The chart looks fantastic, in my opinion. Thursday's action was good, and for a weaker stock you might think, "overextended" (up 6+% that day). =46or this one, I don't think so. A lot depends on the markets, as = always, of course. Thursday's action was antithetical to the proverbial "buy on the rumour, sell on the news", but that only puts a warmer glow on this. The street likes the synergy between the merger participants as B..com gives Yhoo more power in its bid to be the equal to AOL and MSN in Internet dominance. Dan :stkguru@netside.net :chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 :get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html : : :-----Original Message----- :From: Patrick Wahl :To: canslim@lists.xmission.com :Date: Monday, April 05, 1999 12:23 AM :Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] YHOO : : :From: "Marc Laniado" :To: "CANSLIM DISCUSSION LIST" : : : :> Who's watching the chart? :> Looks like a cup with handle and volume drying? Could :break out again?? :> Any takers? : :It is looking like a consolidation pattern, might be getting :ready to :make another run. Given the way these internet stocks run :when :they move, it would probably be worth a shot if it spikes up :out of :its recent base. : : : : : :- : : : :- : - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: rolatzi Subject: [CANSLIM] INSS B/O Date: 05 Apr 1999 07:39:05 -0700 (PDT) INSS has broken out from a classical cup and handle. Its fundamentals have been previously discussed, has good canslim numbers, rapid growth of revenues and income, etc. The breakout was at 71 1/4 and it traded up to 74 1/4 and has come back down a little to 73 1/2. Its volume thus far is 100K with a daily average volume of 291K. I bought in at the breakout. ciao, Rolatzi _________________________________________________________ Do You Yahoo!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Tim Fisher Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] INSS B/O Date: 05 Apr 1999 08:05:55 -0700 I agree it's a decent CANSLIM stock & an interesting chart but it's already down to 72-3/4 which is 4% (not 5%) and the volume may or may not make 1.5x ADV. Why not wait and see if it holds the breakout first? I have seen too many of these breakouts fold the same day when the market opens up & closes lower like it has done on so many of these rallies lately. P.S. Great call on YHOO Dan, I looked at the chart over the weekend like someone suggested and liked what I saw, so entered a market order on Sunday (I know, never buy before 10AM, I'm dumb) & was upset to see I paid 7-1/2 pts. for being lazy. Then I got to work and saw it up 21! On 07:39 AM 4/5/99 , rolatzi Said: > >INSS has broken out from a classical cup and handle. Its >fundamentals have been previously discussed, has good canslim >numbers, rapid growth of revenues and income, etc. The breakout >was at 71 1/4 and it traded up to 74 1/4 and has come back down >a little to 73 1/2. Its volume thus far is 100K with a daily >average volume of 291K. > >I bought in at the breakout. >ciao, >Rolatzi Tim Fisher Ore-Rock-On and Pacific Fishery Biologists WWW Sites Tim@OreRockOn.com WWW: http://OreRockOn.com See naked fish and rocks! - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Marc Laniado" Subject: Fw: [CANSLIM] INSS B/OCAN Date: 05 Apr 1999 16:52:21 +0100 Earnings for INSS are extraordinary. Does anyone know why net margins fell to 1.2% for the last quarter compared to 9.4% one year ago? They have also gone cash flow negative but have enough cash in hand to cover that. I believe they are expanding into Europe which may bring uncertainty because of exchange rates I presume. Receivables are also up. Maybe these negatives are necessary for the sake of expansion, but I suspect these may weaken rather than strengthen the stock. Why not look at NTAP? Broken out last Thursday and up on volume so far today. Marc E Laniado marclaniado@msn.com Tel/Fax: +44 171 731 1354 Mobile +44 973 344 439 -----Original Message----- >I agree it's a decent CANSLIM stock & an interesting chart but it's already >down to 72-3/4 which is 4% (not 5%) and the volume may or may not make 1.5x >ADV. Why not wait and see if it holds the breakout first? I have seen too many >of these breakouts fold the same day when the market opens up & closes lower >like it has done on so many of these rallies lately. > >P.S. Great call on YHOO Dan, I looked at the chart over the weekend like >someone suggested and liked what I saw, so entered a market order on Sunday (I >know, never buy before 10AM, I'm dumb) & was upset to see I paid 7-1/2 pts. for >being lazy. Then I got to work and saw it up 21! > >On 07:39 AM 4/5/99 , rolatzi Said: >> >>INSS has broken out from a classical cup and handle. Its >>fundamentals have been previously discussed, has good canslim >>numbers, rapid growth of revenues and income, etc. The breakout >>was at 71 1/4 and it traded up to 74 1/4 and has come back down >>a little to 73 1/2. Its volume thus far is 100K with a daily >>average volume of 291K. >> >>I bought in at the breakout. >>ciao, >>Rolatzi > > >Tim Fisher >Ore-Rock-On and Pacific Fishery Biologists WWW Sites > >Tim@OreRockOn.com >WWW: http://OreRockOn.com >See naked fish and rocks! > >- > > begin 666 Marc Elie Laniado.vcf M0D5'24XZ5D-!4D0-"DXZ3&%N:6%D;SM-87)C.T5L:64-"D9..DUA Subject: [CANSLIM] INSS Date: 05 Apr 1999 18:00:33 +0100 I just read my note and didn't mean to sound pessimistic about this stock, just to understand it better. It has the most beautiful cup with handle so I pray it takes off on volume (preferably with others from the group!) Marc Marc E Laniado marclaniado@msn.com begin 666 Marc Elie Laniado.vcf M0D5'24XZ5D-!4D0-"DXZ3&%N:6%D;SM-87)C.T5L:64-"D9..DUA Subject: [CANSLIM] PBS Documentary regarding Prostate Cancer Date: 05 Apr 1999 20:29:42 -0700 The following is an announcement regarding a PBS broadcast about Prostate Cancer. It should be enlightening, please mark you calendars. Please, I know this is off topic, and I believe it is important Dan This notice just came to me from ACS. Mark your calendars... ====================================================== "Prostate Cancer: A Journey of Hope," a Public Broadcasting System (PBS) documentary will air nationwide June 11 at 9PM, EDT. (Some PBS stations may air the documentary at another time.) The documentary is being produced by KETC, the St. Louis PBS station, and is supported by the Prostate Cancer Initiative (ACS and the Cancer Research Institute). Dr. Andrew von Eschenbach, Director, Program Center-Genitourinary, UT MD Anderson Cancer Center, and 1997 chairman of the ACS National Advisory Group on Prostate Cancer, is featured in the program, which is narrated by General Norman Schwarzkopf, himself a prostate cancer survivor. The ACS 800 number will be listed at the end of the program. The emotional film follows eight men and their doctors through their individual battle to overcome prostate cancer, revealing dramatic life changes. It also examines the increasing impact the disease has on African-Americans and reviews both the new and conventional therapies available today to treat prostate cancer. PBS stations around the country will be cooperating with ACS field offices on outreach activities surrounding the airing of "Journey of Hope." - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Tim Sowden Subject: [CANSLIM] Double Down, Double Up Strategy for Yahoo Date: 06 Apr 1999 17:29:50 LOC I found this interesting article on buying Yahoo shares using calls and puts that will enble one to define the goals and risks upfront for those interested in purchasing internet stocks but worried about the volatility. http://www.canoe.ca/FP/apr6_croft.html Since I'm not really all that familiar with calls/puts can someone (Tom?) comment on the validity of this idea/theory? Thanks, Tim - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Connie Mack Rea Subject: [CANSLIM] Trading DELL [Connie Mack] Date: 06 Apr 1999 15:08:23 -0400 Have been in and out of DELL twice today. Last out was 46.5--not a particularly outstanding exit, but worth a couple of points. DELL has gone convincingly through its 45 and 46 resistance. If it looks to close above 46, I will hold my position and buy a bit more. Both it and MU give the prospects of a nice ride. Connie Mack - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Options strategy - skip if you don't like/understand options (was Re: [CANSLIM] Double Down, Double Up Strategy for Yahoo) Date: 06 Apr 1999 23:31:28 -0400 Hi Tim, Analyzing all the elements of options trading can get complicated, and this strategy is more complicated than usual. I will do my best to keep it simple. I should note we have several options traders in this group, and I am sure some of them have been trading internet stock options, so hopefully they will add their comments. I must note, for the record, that I am one of the estimated 85% of all investors that do not own and have never owned an internet stock (I told you all I am an old fuddy duddy! still, doubt this stat since many mutual funds have owned internet stocks) (see article snipped way below). For our international members, it is also important to note that US options can be exercised by the long holder at any time, unlike the European options that can only be exercised upon expiration. This can be a significant difference if Yahoo, in the case at hand, should suddenly spike way up before much of the "time value" has expired. With a US option, you are betting on stock price performance at anytime throughout the life of the contract, not just at expiration. As a now "inactive" Registered Options Principal (ROP) of a securities firm (Series 4 license holder), it is also incumbent upon my personal ethics to point out to any members that have read this far that options trading is very high risk, a very fast way to lose money, and, occasionally, to even make money, and if you don't truly know what you are doing, DON'T DO IT! To quote this article, "Consider that the average implied volatility for an equity option is 35%. Compare that with the Internet high flyers, where options on Yahoo!, for example, have an implied volatility of 82.4%." I tend to analyze the risk/reward aspects of a strategy such as outlined a little differently. First take the long position (100 shares at $220) plus the short call sold at $109.50 with a strike price of $190 (I am assuming, to avoid any confusion, that all the prices quoted in the article were accurate at the time). For the purchaser of this call, he/she needs the stock to be trading over $299.50 ($190 + 109.50) for the exercise to make sense. This is a long term option, maturity out to Jan 2001. Now the holder of the covered call (long the stock, short the call) has a cost basis of $110.50, so if he is exercised, he still has a net gain of $79.50 ($190 - 110.50), not a bad return. On the other hand, if the stock jumps quickly to $350, the gain in simply having held the stock long would have been far greater, and so little time value will have expired that buying the call back isn't economical. Now we add in the naked put with an exercise of $190 as well, and take in an additional $68.50 cash per share from this additional exposure. In the above scenario, this put would be even further out of the money, and despite the lengthy time left, would be at that point worth a lot less, so cheaper to buy back for less than he sold. However, let's assume that the stock, instead of rocketing to $350, instead plummets to $150. Because of the implied and actual volatility of internet stocks in general, and Yahoo in particular, while this put moved into the money and increased in price, the call would be less likely to lose as much value until substantial additional time ran out. So the lessening in price of the short call might not fully offset the increasing price of the short put. And meantime, the value of the underlying long shares also went down in value. At this point, the value of these three positions could be in the ballpark of: 100 shares long @ $150 = 15,000 1 call short @ $45 = (4,500) 1 put short @ $140 = (14,000) cash from prior sales = 17,800 cash spent on long pos = (22,000) NET VALUE = 700.00 (assuming all of the above and my math) If the stock plummeted even lower, potentially you could find yourself in a deficit, again assuming this happened quickly. If it took a year for this to happen, then the loss of time value in the two short options could substantially add to your potential gains. The covered call strategy alone, without the added complication of the short put, would be fairly conservative if you are bullish on Yahoo in particular or internet stocks in general. On the other hand, if you are not already an experienced options trader, this is probably too risky and complicated for you. I have also snipped a few quotes from stuff I read today from Infobeat that bears on the internet stocks. Obviously, if you believe in the valuations and future prices of the internet stocks, you are more likely to be willing to take on the higher risks associated with trading/investing in them, with or without all the complications of options. Following snipped from today's Internet report from Infobeat: Shares of Internet companies are predominantly held by younger investors who expect overall rates of return that are more than twice those of all investors, according to the Index of Investor Optimism. A joint effort of PaineWebber Incorporated and the Gallup Organization, the Index shows that Internet stocks are not widely held among all investor groups, and that investors with less than $100,000 in investable assets report substantially higher proportions of investments in Internet companies than do investors with more than $100,000 in assets. Only 15 percent of investors own or have owned Internet stocks, according to the Index. Among investors who have held these stocks, 63 percent say they consider Internet companies to be riskier investments than traditional companies. A majority of e-commerce executives say their advertising and market deals with major Web portal sites are generating less business than they'd expected. More than 60 percent indicated the deals contribute less than one-third of total online sales, a research report released by Jupiter Communications found. The report also said only five percent of the e-tailing companies see themselves as "highly likely" to renew their portal deals. Online commerce driven directly by the primary portals will grow only slightly, from 18 percent in 1999 to 20 percent by 2002. Prodigy Communications Corp. announced what it called the first-ever Spanish-language (bilingual) national Internet service and access bundle created especially to serve the eight million Latino households in the U.S. The company said it will be the first national access provider to offer toll-free customer service and technical support for the Spanish-speaking customer. The point of the above three snips is that while the "internet environment" continues to grow and evolve, it's not necessarily happening in the manner widely predicted. Advertisers have been talking in terms of huge increases in marketing, yet the related quote suggests it's not really happening beyond the initial surge. Other evidence suggests that first time online shoppers are gaining confidence, and will be repeat buyers. Were this the case, marketers should be seeing a tremendous upsurge in at least the percentage of their sales occuring online, as it grows from insignificant to something greater due to the initial sales of "virgin online shoppers" and repeat sales from converted online shoppers. Even Amazon, with its already established mkt niche, and demonstrated sales increases, is still not making a big dent in its losses, much less approaching profitability. Then again, this could also be said of Yahoo or America Online just a few years ago, and look where they are now! I stand in humble awe, with some regrets for having only watched, as I see these net stocks climb to unbelievable and unpredictable prices and market caps. Is there an end to it, only time will tell. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html -----Original Message----- I found this interesting article on buying Yahoo shares using calls and puts that will enble one to define the goals and risks upfront for those interested in purchasing internet stocks but worried about the volatility. http://www.canoe.ca/FP/apr6_croft.html Since I'm not really all that familiar with calls/puts can someone (Tom?) comment on the validity of this idea/theory? Thanks, Tim - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Paul.Huber@USPTO.GOV Subject: [CANSLIM] YHOO Date: 07 Apr 1999 11:29:12 -0400 Hi, I'd like to introduce myself. My name is Paul Huber. I'm new to the CANSLIM Discussion Group. I'm also new to this type of investing, but I have read/studied Mr. O'Neil's book. I have a question regarding YHOO. It did have classic cup with handle base pattern with a breakout on Monday, 4/5, as expected. O'Neil strongly requests that you cut your loss at 8%. According to him, if you buy at the correct B/O point, the stock rarely falls below 8% from your purchase price. But, these internet stocks are soooo volitile. With these types of extremely volitile stocks, are your chances quite good that you will be sold out at an 8% loss, even though you bought at the correct B/O? In this case I believe you discover and buy at B/O point 205-210, which means you cut losses at 189-193. I was slightly taken back by Mr. Tim Fisher who appeared to buy before B/O point was confirmed by high volume (he put in market order before market opened on Mon.). But, he was right on the money. With these types of stocks, is that they way to do it - buy on the strong anticipation of a B/O. I'm a little hesitant to do this because I see myself getting burned more often than not. Please explain. - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Walter Stock Subject: [CANSLIM] New Marder Column Date: 07 Apr 1999 13:14:10 -0400 Marder released another column this morning. As usual it is very appropriate for Canslimmers. It is also very bullish like his earlier one of March 8. I happen to agree with him. Those who understood and acted on his previous column have been well rewarded. Using the "new" Canslim rules along with Marder's insights, I have almost tripled one of my trading accounts in the last six weeks. Be sure to read his analysis of the advance/decline line issue and how it played out in relation to past bear markets. Timing is crucial. http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/current/marder.htx?source=htx/http2_mw Happy trading, Walter Stock Oakville - ONT, Canada - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Peter Newell" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] YHOO Date: 07 Apr 1999 13:21:20 -0700 Paul, IBD had an article with buy points for YHOO within the last week or so good reading. Also, the 26 week series by WON(aka William O'neil) has more info on correct buypoints. Looks like Tim bought at a reasonable time cleared a 2-3week handle on heavier volume and the open probably confirmed since it was higher and moving up on volume. These charts look extremely extended to me and are not for the faint of heart. The 8% rule is a good one otherwise you may be taking too much risk, this will make more sense in a few years. Happy hunting, Peter Newell -----Original Message----- >Hi, I'd like to introduce myself. My name is Paul Huber. I'm new to the >CANSLIM Discussion Group. I'm also new to this type of investing, but I >have read/studied Mr. O'Neil's book. I have a question regarding YHOO. It >did have classic cup with handle base pattern with a breakout on Monday, >4/5, as expected. O'Neil strongly requests that you cut your loss at 8%. >According to him, if you buy at the correct B/O point, the stock rarely >falls below 8% from your purchase price. But, these internet stocks are >soooo volitile. With these types of extremely volitile stocks, are your >chances quite good that you will be sold out at an 8% loss, even though you >bought at the correct B/O? In this case I believe you discover and buy at >B/O point 205-210, which means you cut losses at 189-193. I was slightly >taken back by Mr. Tim Fisher who appeared to buy before B/O point was >confirmed by high volume (he put in market order before market opened on >Mon.). But, he was right on the money. With these types of stocks, is that >they way to do it - buy on the strong anticipation of a B/O. I'm a little >hesitant to do this because I see myself getting burned more often than not. >Please explain. > > >- > > - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: PWahl@sysinn.com Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] New Marder Column Date: 07 Apr 1999 12:22:58 -0600 > -----Original Message----- > From: Walter Stock [SMTP:wstock@cgocable.net] > Sent: Wednesday, April 07, 1999 11:14 AM > > Using the "new" Canslim rules along with Marder's > insights, I have almost tripled one of my trading accounts > in the last six weeks. [Wahl, Patrick] I think you need post your picks to this list once in a while ;) - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Marc Laniado" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] New Marder Column Date: 07 Apr 1999 21:40:45 +0100 I second that! Marc Marc E Laniado marclaniado@msn.com Tel/Fax: +44 171 731 1354 Mobile +44 973 344 439 -----Original Message----- > > >> -----Original Message----- >> From: Walter Stock [SMTP:wstock@cgocable.net] >> Sent: Wednesday, April 07, 1999 11:14 AM >> >> Using the "new" Canslim rules along with Marder's >> insights, I have almost tripled one of my trading accounts >> in the last six weeks. > [Wahl, Patrick] > > > I think you need post your picks to this list once in a while ;) > > > >- > > begin 666 Marc Elie Laniado.vcf M0D5'24XZ5D-!4D0-"DXZ3&%N:6%D;SM-87)C.T5L:64-"D9..DUA Subject: [CANSLIM] get paid to surf the net $$$ No Joke ..read the press releasees Date: 08 Apr 1999 07:26:48 +0000 I recently joined a new Internet service called AllAdvantage.com. You should definitely consider becoming a member. AllAdvantage.com is the Internet company that pays its members while they surf the Web ($.50 an hour). It's free to join and it takes about a minute (no survey to fill out). Just go to http://alladvantage.com/go.asp?refid=3DAML003 (copy and past this address into the location slot on your browser) or clik on it !!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Members are paid for their own Web browsing and for referrals. Please tell as many of your friends about this program as possible. Be sure to enter my ID#(AML-003) when you join. Remember, it"s easy to sign up and it will never cost us a dime! Details below. Let me know how you like it. Regards, JD PLEASE FORWARD THIS MESSAGE TO AS MANY PEOPLE AS POSSIBLE, i REALLY APPRECIATE IT THANKS !!!!!!! Member ID#: AML-003 How AllAdvantage.com membership works: Get Paid to Surf the Web As a member, AllAdvantage.com will pay you 50 cents an hour while you surf the Web for up to 40 hours per month. That's up to $20 per month just for browsing the Internet the way you normally do. All members download the AllAdvantage.com Viewbar=99. The bar is standard ad height, about one-half inch on most screens. The bar can be minimized with a single click to eliminate it from the screen at any time. Refer friends to AllAdvantage.com and receive 10 cents per hour while they surf the Web. And receive an additional 5 cents per hour from the extended referrals that come in from your referrals (for new members extended as far as four referrals from your original referrals!) - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "David S. Pinhasik" Subject: [CANSLIM] ctl Date: 08 Apr 1999 18:50:34 +0300 Just hit my 8% stop, and I'm out. Anyone else? This just does not make too much sense to me. This stock seemed like a great pick. David A conclusion is simply the place where you got tired of thinking. ============================================ David S. Pinhasik Tadiran Information Systems @ Chaim Sheba Medical Center - Tel Hashomer, Israel 972-3-530-2261 972-3-534-5748 fax dsap@shani.net ============================================ - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Peter Newell" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] ctl Date: 08 Apr 1999 12:10:36 -0700 David, I feel your pain. We discussed this earlier on the list and the conclusion was thats the way it goes sometimes. Peter Newell -----Original Message----- >Just hit my 8% stop, and I'm out. Anyone else? This just does not make too >much sense to me. This stock seemed like a great pick. >David > >A conclusion is simply the place where you got tired of thinking. >============================================ >David S. Pinhasik >Tadiran Information Systems >@ Chaim Sheba Medical Center - Tel Hashomer, Israel >972-3-530-2261 >972-3-534-5748 fax >dsap@shani.net >============================================ > > > > >- > > - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Tim Fisher Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] YHOO Date: 08 Apr 1999 10:46:21 -0700 I was looking at last Thursday's chart. It looked like a pressure cooker with a faulty lid - check out the volume action. When it dipped huge buyers stepped in. They knew something (i.e. they would beat the whisper number). I was buying in anticipation of earnings, not a breakout. I did say that it was a no-no thing to do. But if it makes you 20% in a day, who is to argue? I believe that gaps get filled, thus fully expect it to dip to under 180. A stop placed any higher is risky. My stop is in the 150's; this is the support. Then again I didn't pay 200+ for it ;) At 11:29 AM 4/7/99 -0400, you wrote: >Hi, I'd like to introduce myself. My name is Paul Huber. I'm new to the >CANSLIM Discussion Group. I'm also new to this type of investing, but I >have read/studied Mr. O'Neil's book. I have a question regarding YHOO. It >did have classic cup with handle base pattern with a breakout on Monday, >4/5, as expected. O'Neil strongly requests that you cut your loss at 8%. >According to him, if you buy at the correct B/O point, the stock rarely >falls below 8% from your purchase price. But, these internet stocks are >soooo volitile. With these types of extremely volitile stocks, are your >chances quite good that you will be sold out at an 8% loss, even though you >bought at the correct B/O? In this case I believe you discover and buy at >B/O point 205-210, which means you cut losses at 189-193. I was slightly >taken back by Mr. Tim Fisher who appeared to buy before B/O point was >confirmed by high volume (he put in market order before market opened on >Mon.). But, he was right on the money. With these types of stocks, is that >they way to do it - buy on the strong anticipation of a B/O. I'm a little >hesitant to do this because I see myself getting burned more often than not. >Please explain. > Tim Fisher, 1995 President, Pacific Fishery Biologists Ore-ROCK-On Rockhounding Web Site PFB Information mailto:tim@OreRockOn.com WWW http://OreRockOn.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Johan Van Houtven Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] get paid to surf the net $$$ No Joke ..read the Date: 08 Apr 1999 19:57:05 +0200 Sorry, but this looks, sounds, feels and smells like a multilevel marketing scam to me. At 07:26 AM 4/8/99 +0000, you wrote: >I recently joined a new Internet service called AllAdvantage.com. Johan - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Walter Stock Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] New Marder Column Date: 08 Apr 1999 14:16:40 -0400 > -----Original Message----- > From: Walter Stock [SMTP:wstock@cgocable.net] > Sent: Wednesday, April 07, 1999 11:14 AM > > Using the "new" Canslim rules along with Marder's > insights, I have almost tripled one of my trading accounts > in the last six weeks. > [Wahl, Patrick] > > I think you need post your picks to this list once in a while ;) Afternoon, Patrick Last time I posted, I thought I did ! I know I mentioned AOL, EBAY and YHOO as Canslim candidates, at least under the "new" Canslim rules (as per WON's 26 part series in IBD). My watchlist had those three stocks plus AMZN, ATHM, CMGI, DCLK, EGRP, and (lest you think I have turned into an internet speculator), PFE. I was also close to full margin. I have very recently cut back. Right now I am holding ATHM and DCLK only. It is going to be very hard to sell DCLK because the float is so tiny and there is an ongoing institutional stampede into the stock. Happy trading, Walter Oakville, ONT - Canada - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Marc Laniado" Subject: Fw: [CANSLIM] New Marder Column and great modern stock picks Date: 08 Apr 1999 20:15:50 +0100 Dear Walter, Most of these internet stocks still don't have much in the way of earnings - so do you use mostly features such as leadership, sales increases, increasing margins and technical pointers? Do you use any other features such as inverted cash flow, which AMZN runs off?? I see that the ratio I quoted for these stocks in an earlier message is powerful ie (low or less than 1). Do you use something like this to assess them? (current assets - cash and cash equivalents)/(current liabilities - short term debts) From http://www.fool.com/portfolios/RuleMaker/1999/RuleMaker990329.htm http://www.fool.com/portfolios/RuleMaker/1999/RuleMaker990330.htm I see EBAY is close to its old high of $177 on large volume today coming off a period of consolidation. Have you looked at EXODUS communications (EXDS) - massive sales increases and possible dominance in its area, but I don't know much about it. If you have good insight into these internet stocks I would appreciate your opinion. For original CANSLIM stocks - take a look at XTRM - all the features and broke out today on volume, only its a small cap! Broke out of handle from cup on volume (need at least a 15 month chart to see this) Also look at WLFI (Winsloew furniture) great but poor industry group RS of 38, FWRD in another wrong industry group! Marc Marc E Laniado marclaniado@msn.com Tel/Fax: +44 171 731 1354 Mobile +44 973 344 439 -----Original Message----- >> -----Original Message----- >> From: Walter Stock [SMTP:wstock@cgocable.net] >> Sent: Wednesday, April 07, 1999 11:14 AM >> >> Using the "new" Canslim rules along with Marder's >> insights, I have almost tripled one of my trading accounts >> in the last six weeks. >> [Wahl, Patrick] >> >> I think you need post your picks to this list once in a while ;) > > >Afternoon, Patrick > >Last time I posted, I thought I did ! I know I mentioned AOL, >EBAY and YHOO as Canslim candidates, at least under the >"new" Canslim rules (as per WON's 26 part series in IBD). > >My watchlist had those three stocks plus AMZN, ATHM, >CMGI, DCLK, EGRP, and (lest you think I have turned into >an internet speculator), PFE. >I was also close to full margin. > >I have very recently cut back. >Right now I am holding ATHM and DCLK only. > >It is going to be very hard to sell DCLK because the float is so tiny >and there is an ongoing institutional stampede into the stock. > >Happy trading, > >Walter >Oakville, ONT - Canada > > > > > > > > >- > > begin 666 Marc Elie Laniado.vcf M0D5'24XZ5D-!4D0-"DXZ3&%N:6%D;SM-87)C.T5L:64-"D9..DUA Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] ctl Date: 08 Apr 1999 15:40:25 -0700 (PDT) David, I haven't followed CTL, but I did notice that it was deleted from the S&P Midcap on 3/24. Don't know why. Here is the site: http://www.spglobal.com/index.html TM --- "David S. Pinhasik" wrote: > Just hit my 8% stop, and I'm out. Anyone else? This just does not make too > much sense to me. This stock seemed like a great pick. > David > > A conclusion is simply the place where you got tired of thinking. > ============================================ > David S. Pinhasik > Tadiran Information Systems > @ Chaim Sheba Medical Center - Tel Hashomer, Israel > 972-3-530-2261 > 972-3-534-5748 fax > dsap@shani.net > ============================================ > > > > > - > > _________________________________________________________ Do You Yahoo!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] YHOO Date: 08 Apr 1999 22:03:26 -0400 Aw shucks, Dan! While I have never entered a mkt order (buy or sell) before the mkt opened, my lack of time to watch the mkt in detail has forced some changes. I have, on occasion, entered a limit order prior to the open, hedging my bet by setting my limit even further away from the prior close than I would have done with more time to watch. In other words, if I could watch the stock and would be happy with a certain price, then an even better price would be extra insurance if I was filled when I couldn't watch it. Then, if time permitted, watch how the stock is trading after the open and adjust my limit accordingly. This works esp well if the stock does, in fact, perform on open pretty much as you expected (e.g. you expected a gap up, then fall back; or slide further from a prior day selloff before rallying). My time span from the open before entering an order is normally only 15 minutes rather than a half hour. That is usually sufficient time to determine from price, volume and block trades if the stock appears to be trading as expected. In the past, when I have had the time to watch a stock trade by trade, and monitor where the trades were occurring and how it was affecting both the bid/ask and the size of each, I have occasionally entered both mkt and limit orders within five minutes of the open. Again, the key was how badly I wanted the trade; how confident I was in what I was doing; and how the stock was behaving compared to what I expected. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html -----Original Message----- On Wed, 7 Apr 1999 11:29:12 -0400 , you wrote: I think it is a major mistake to put in a market order before a stock even opens. I have been burned rather severely a few times and have sworn off the practice. Tom Worley, who is probably the most knowledgable and experienced (in equities investments) person posting in this newletter, has declared that he has never engaged in this practice, and expects to never do so. It is always wise to let the market run for at least a half hour before making a trade, except in rare instances where a stock is acting exactly as you anticipate. I have noticed that when a stock gaps up on open it usually retreats 1/2 to 1 hour later, and you can pick it up quite a bit cheaper than you otherwise would have. - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] get paid to surf the net $$$ No Joke ..read the press releasees Date: 08 Apr 1999 22:07:30 -0400 And not only that, smells pretty commercial to me, and from a non active and non contributing member. Anyone remember an intro from Jon Daily?? Or any kind of post vaguely resembling CANSLIM? I think the direct word for this is "pyramid scheme"?? Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html -----Original Message----- ..read the press releasees Sorry, but this looks, sounds, feels and smells like a multilevel marketing scam to me. At 07:26 AM 4/8/99 +0000, you wrote: >I recently joined a new Internet service called AllAdvantage.com. Johan - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] ctl Date: 08 Apr 1999 22:32:01 -0400 David, Congrats on sticking to your stop, regardless on where the price goes from here. I am not especially familiar with this one, but did take a quick look tonight at DGO and note several things. C - current (4 qtrs) earnings are good, ranging from +20% to +37% increases year to year A - Annual earnings are not so robust, current and next year forecasts call for gains of only 11 and 14%, better to see this at least over 20%. And the five year earnings growth is only 16% N - Haven't researched what is new or unusual about this one S - forget S, and I as well, small caps are still out L - With an RS of only 88, it is not only below the GRS of 93 in a strong group, but also well below the top five in the group I - see S above, however I do note that Management only owns 3% (roughly 2.76 mil shares) while funds already have 18% (approx 16 mil shares without even considering how much of management's shares are restricted from being sold), guess who ultimately has greater influence over its stock price in the short term? M - pretty ugly from my perspective, I hate to see these huge up days and new records on major indexes when more stocks decline than improve, or are barely the opposite; and new lows continue to surpass new highs I also note that ROE is only 14%, well under a more desirable 20% or better; debt is high at 167%; and the up/down volume ratio is an anemic 0.7, below a minimally acceptable 0.8 to 1.0. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html -----Original Message----- Just hit my 8% stop, and I'm out. Anyone else? This just does not make too much sense to me. This stock seemed like a great pick. David A conclusion is simply the place where you got tired of thinking. ============================================ David S. Pinhasik Tadiran Information Systems @ Chaim Sheba Medical Center - Tel Hashomer, Israel 972-3-530-2261 972-3-534-5748 fax dsap@shani.net ============================================ - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Patrick Wahl" Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] New Marder Column Date: 08 Apr 1999 21:57:51 -0800 Date sent: Thu, 08 Apr 1999 14:16:40 -0400 > Last time I posted, I thought I did ! I know I mentioned AOL, > EBAY and YHOO as Canslim candidates, at least under the > "new" Canslim rules (as per WON's 26 part series in IBD). Maybe I just need to be a bit more attentive. - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: musicant@autobahn.org (Dan Musicant) Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] get paid to surf the net $$$ No Joke ..read the press releasees Date: 09 Apr 1999 04:30:45 GMT On Thu, 8 Apr 1999 22:07:30 -0400, you wrote: :And not only that, smells pretty commercial to me, and from :a non active and non contributing member. Anyone remember an :intro from Jon Daily?? Or any kind of post vaguely :resembling CANSLIM? I think the direct word for this is :"pyramid scheme"?? : :Tom Worley :stkguru@netside.net I have over 6400 messages from the CANSLIM list dating back to May 1997, and there is no message among them from Jon Daily, so I doubt he's ever posted here before. Dan - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "James Adams" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] New Marder Column Date: 09 Apr 1999 08:39:53 -0400 Patrick wrote: >>..as Canslim candidates, at least under the > > "new" Canslim rules (as per WON's 26 part series in IBD). I no longer get IBD. Could someone update me on the new Canslim Rules? TIA, James Adams jadams@ntr.net jimadams@may-uky.campus.mci.net Maysville, KY USA - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Johnny Lloyd" Subject: [CANSLIM] O'Neil's 26 part series Date: 09 Apr 1999 09:39:39 -0400 James go to http://www.investors.com for the 26 week "new" canslim rules John ----- Original Message ----- Sent: Friday, April 09, 1999 8:39 AM > Patrick wrote: > > >>..as Canslim candidates, at least under the > > > "new" Canslim rules (as per WON's 26 part series in IBD). > > I no longer get IBD. Could someone update me on the new Canslim Rules? > TIA, > James Adams > jadams@ntr.net > jimadams@may-uky.campus.mci.net > Maysville, KY USA > > > - > > - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Jeff Salisbury" Subject: [CANSLIM] get paid to surf the net $$$ No Joke ..read the press releasees Date: 09 Apr 1999 09:24:05 -0600 Everyone, To my great chagrin, this message got through to the group. In fact, the message was automatically intercepted -- I must have fat fingered it and accidentally forwarded it to the group. My apologies. However, let it be known that Mr. Daily was summarily removed and banned from our group. There is zero tolerance for spamming in our group... Best Regards, Jeff -----Original Message----- ..read the press releasees -------------------------- - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: " " Subject: [CANSLIM] Re: Get paid to surf... Date: 09 Apr 1999 08:30:40 -0800 >>At 07:26 AM 4/8/99 +0000, Jon Daily wrote: >>I recently joined a new Internet service called AllAdvantage.com. On 08 Apr 1999, Johan Van Houtven wrote: >Sorry, but this looks, sounds, feels and smells like a multilevel marketing >scam to me. Don't be sorry, Johan. You're right. A couple of interesting points which did not get brought out: 1. You can indeed remove the "viewbar" at any time, BUT, when you do you don't "get paid to surf..." Only get "paid" while the ads are displayed. 2. It is a multilevel deal. 3. You MAY collect up to $20/month @ 50c/hour, BUT, if they can't sell enough ads, they might lower the maximum of 40 hours/month they'll pay you for. 4. They don't mention whether they track your activity while on the Internet and sell that information. 5. They expressly forbid the use of spamming to get new customers! -----== Sent via Deja News, The Discussion Network ==----- http://www.dejanews.com/ Easy access to 50,000+ discussion forums - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: bheffer@rfsd.k12.co.us (Ben Heffer) Subject: [CANSLIM] greetings Date: 09 Apr 1999 15:59:55 -0700 Having read the spam messages today, let me say thanks to the moderator for doing his work. Let me introduce myself...My name is Ben Heffer and I am an elementary school teacher with a brand new interest in learning how to invest using the Canslim approach and/or some modification- as long as I make some bucks consistently. I have a very limited pot of money and have read O'Neill's book through several times and am now trying to see the patterns in some of your recommendations. It is certainly not always clear or easy for me to spot. I appreciate the research you folks have done because I too have very limited time to research. I have been lurking on the list now for three weeks and have picked up great info. I look forward to continued lurking and when I have something positive to contribute, I will do so. I am also looking forward to working with some other novice or experienced investors who can help do some mentoring through this stepping out time. Anyone interested? Sincerely, Ben Heffer Please be aware that another return address for me is- mailto:bheffer@sopris.net - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Patrick Wahl" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] greetings Date: 09 Apr 1999 18:16:12 -0800 Date sent: Fri, 9 Apr 1999 15:59:55 -0700 > I look forward to continued lurking and when I have something positive to > contribute, I will do so. I am also looking forward to working with some > other novice or experienced investors who can help do some mentoring > through this stepping out time. Anyone interested? Try posting questions here, usually you will get some sort of response. - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] greetings Date: 09 Apr 1999 22:28:33 -0400 Hi Ben, First, welcome to the group, it's a great place to try out your understanding of what CANSLIM is all about. Secondly, the best way to get some "mentoring" is to simply post your ideas and stock picks, hopefully adequately defending the picks using CANSLIM methodology. It's rare that someone reasonably experienced won't respond and give you some feedback. For you, and all the other lurkers out there, if you are still reluctant to post your picks or ideas, try going back thru the archives and find one of the many regular participants that seems to fit your personal style of investing, and contact them directly for advice. Most of the regular members will respond and help you find your way initially. The best way to check out an "idea" is to post it for general group comments, however. Getting several different perspectives on a stock, or its chart, can be most useful. If all else fails, I will offer my feeble attempts at mentoring CANSLIM, tho my time has been pretty meagre lately. Expect that any comments will be a quick snapshot based on DGO charts. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html -----Original Message----- Having read the spam messages today, let me say thanks to the moderator for doing his work. Let me introduce myself...My name is Ben Heffer and I am an elementary school teacher with a brand new interest in learning how to invest using the Canslim approach and/or some modification- as long as I make some bucks consistently. I have a very limited pot of money and have read O'Neill's book through several times and am now trying to see the patterns in some of your recommendations. It is certainly not always clear or easy for me to spot. I appreciate the research you folks have done because I too have very limited time to research. I have been lurking on the list now for three weeks and have picked up great info. I look forward to continued lurking and when I have something positive to contribute, I will do so. I am also looking forward to working with some other novice or experienced investors who can help do some mentoring through this stepping out time. Anyone interested? Sincerely, Ben Heffer Please be aware that another return address for me is- mailto:bheffer@sopris.net - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Walter Stock Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] New Marder Column Date: 10 Apr 1999 01:56:59 -0400 Hi Marc, > To answer your questions, I rely on the "new" or "Nouveau Canslim" > cookbook as published by WON in his IBD series last summer. > This is the best update for HTMMIS which, as Tom says, is in dire > need of revision. Be warned, the following is what works for me... > it may or may not work for you. > > I value the NSLIM in CANSLIM the highest. > > CA: it is important but some of the best stocks to invest in > recently have had no earnings at all. If there are earnings, they > should be growing strongly and steadily. If there are no > earnings, then rather than ignore the stock, I look for very > strong revenue growth and the prospect of substantial earnings in > the future. > > In a nutshell, give me great earnings or no earnings. > Just don't give me bad earnings. > > N: classic Canslim here. > > S: low supply is the rocket fuel for many of the internet > stocks. For example, DCLK has a small float now, > and had a minuscule one before the stock split. > Combine that with institutions convinced that > this stock will dominate internet advertising, and you get a > panic to buy and from shelves that are almost empty. Having > said that, I still buy lots of big caps, provided they are not > over-owned by institutions. > > L: I look for a very high Relative Strength rating (90+) , > and for a company which leads or dominates its Industry. I also > pay more attention to sector rotation and Group Strength than > most Canslimmers would. I won't buy anything in a lower rated > group - ever. > > I: I like to keep track of what some of the big funds are buying, > although the information available is usually getting stale > by the time it is published. > Still, if you know what the Janus-20 type funds are buying, > it is very good news for the stocks in question. > Funds of this type pour huge amounts of money into a very limited > number of the same big caps week after week. > Makes for great liquidity and support. > > M: classic Canslim here, with extra weight given to the > bull and bear numbers published weekly in IBD and Barron's. > Marder is outstanding here in applying Canslim M analysis > to current market conditions. > I also have a degree in economics, > but I try not to let that get in my way. > > After screening stocks through Canslim, I do technical analysis: > Trendlines, MA's, OBV, MF, Macd-Osc, Slosto, P-Vol, N-Vol, > DM, and ADX on every candidate. Some of these tools will > be more appropriate than others depending upon market > conditions. I would recommend Alexander Elder's book > Trading for a Living as a good starting point. > Murphy's The Visual Investor is another. > > I do some of the detailed fundamental analysis that you mention, > but I rely less on ratios than simple quarter to quarter or > year to year comparisons, e.g. are receivables moving up or > down? Are margins contracting or expanding? > > You asked about EBAY. I have been tracking it but am not > in it. Chart looks good, though I don't like the MF and would > have preferred higher volume for an internet breakout. > > Funny you mention EXDS. I just started investigating it today. > Am trying to understand how this company will work and > position itself in the marketplace before doing the Canslim > thing and the TA.. > > WLFI I would eliminate because of industry group > strength (or lack thereof). > > FWRD looks like an air transport stock, and I don't like > transports until I have a better grip on what is going on in > the energy market. > > Hope this has helped > > Walter > >Most of these internet stocks still don't have much in the way of > earnings - > >so do you use mostly features such as leadership, sales increases, > >increasing margins and technical pointers? Do you use any other > features > >such as inverted cash flow, which AMZN runs off?? I see that the > ratio I > >quoted for these stocks in an earlier message is powerful ie (low or > less > >than 1). Do you use something like this to assess them? > > > >(current assets - cash and cash equivalents)/(current liabilities - > short > >term debts) > > > >From > >http://www.fool.com/portfolios/RuleMaker/1999/RuleMaker990329.htm > >http://www.fool.com/portfolios/RuleMaker/1999/RuleMaker990330.htm > > > >I see EBAY is close to its old high of $177 on large volume today > coming off > >a period of consolidation. > >Have you looked at EXODUS communications (EXDS) - massive sales > increases > >and possible dominance in its area, but I don't know much about it. > If you > >have good insight into these internet stocks I would appreciate your > >opinion. > >For original CANSLIM stocks - take a look at XTRM - all the features > and > >broke out today on volume, only its a small cap! Broke out of handle > from > >cup on volume (need at least a 15 month chart to see this) > > > >Also look at WLFI (Winsloew furniture) great but poor industry group > RS of > >38, FWRD in another wrong industry group! > > > > > >Marc > - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Viv Tansley" Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] greetings Date: 10 Apr 1999 15:53:43 +0800 Hi, I have been "lurking" on & off now for a couple of years, I have introduced myself briefly around a year ago but since then have not paid so much attention to the US markets (haven't been lurking too much!). Re-intro. I am 26 years old and am studying a Diploma in Financial Markets In Perth, Western Australia. I have only followed CANSLIM (however modified) in the US and think it to be the best way to invest in single stocks. I have made & lost money, the losing part due to not following the method correctly and trying to make a fast buck without doing the homework!. I had subscribed to DG -online for the best part of last year but have since purchased WOWs & use the Pitbull Investors Stocktables which I find easier & cheaper. Stocks currently on my list. MARG , ADCT Finally I would like to say that as a lurker this list is the best of it's kind & thanks to the regulars who make it so. I hope to be contributing more in the future. Regards Viv Tansley -----Original Message----- [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com] On Behalf Of Tom Worley Sent: Saturday, April 10, 1999 10:29 AM Hi Ben, First, welcome to the group, it's a great place to try out your understanding of what CANSLIM is all about. Secondly, the best way to get some "mentoring" is to simply post your ideas and stock picks, hopefully adequately defending the picks using CANSLIM methodology. It's rare that someone reasonably experienced won't respond and give you some feedback. For you, and all the other lurkers out there, if you are still reluctant to post your picks or ideas, try going back thru the archives and find one of the many regular participants that seems to fit your personal style of investing, and contact them directly for advice. Most of the regular members will respond and help you find your way initially. The best way to check out an "idea" is to post it for general group comments, however. Getting several different perspectives on a stock, or its chart, can be most useful. If all else fails, I will offer my feeble attempts at mentoring CANSLIM, tho my time has been pretty meagre lately. Expect that any comments will be a quick snapshot based on DGO charts. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html -----Original Message----- Having read the spam messages today, let me say thanks to the moderator for doing his work. Let me introduce myself...My name is Ben Heffer and I am an elementary school teacher with a brand new interest in learning how to invest using the Canslim approach and/or some modification- as long as I make some bucks consistently. I have a very limited pot of money and have read O'Neill's book through several times and am now trying to see the patterns in some of your recommendations. It is certainly not always clear or easy for me to spot. I appreciate the research you folks have done because I too have very limited time to research. I have been lurking on the list now for three weeks and have picked up great info. I look forward to continued lurking and when I have something positive to contribute, I will do so. I am also looking forward to working with some other novice or experienced investors who can help do some mentoring through this stepping out time. Anyone interested? Sincerely, Ben Heffer Please be aware that another return address for me is- mailto:bheffer@sopris.net - - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: [CANSLIM] New feature at DGO Date: 10 Apr 1999 08:49:34 -0400 I just discovered a new report available at DGO (least I was never told about it!). It is a "Stocks Approaching a New High" list. Unfortunately, I will not be able to post it here unless and until I get permission, which I will seek, as there is no "personalization" possible, every stock on the list meets the basic requirements of within 5% of a new high; RS and EPS of 80 or better; A/D of C or better (a quick scan looks like they all well exceed these parameters). I would have to post the entire list, and that's not allowed. The list is updated daily during the new week, other than the latest high which is from the prior week or earlier. This seems to be another effort on DGO's part to provide a form of screening, certainly for me a "value added" feature. What I can tell you is that there are 190 stocks on this list, and I will be reviewing the charts later tho most are beyond my budget. I am coming up for renewal on my subscription, and intend (thanks in part to a hefty pay raise I just got) to renew using the combination of a monthly Naz book plus DGO to get the discount (total cost still $530). For those DGO subscribers that are not aware, you can "scroll" thru the charts on lists like this quite easily by clicking on the first stock, then hitting f1 (or f4) for a chart, then minimize the list to see the chart. You can leave the list in minimize, and move down the list by using the down arrow key, and again hitting f1 or f4 (or enter if you want the same chart style). I will post the list of stocks that actually hit new highs last week, are in the DG books, and have minimum CS requirements later. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Frank V. Wolynski" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] New Marder Column Date: 10 Apr 1999 11:14:55 -0400 Walter, your message is a print and pin to the Bulletin Board! I also pay more attention to Sector/Group analysis/performance than many. If I find a stock building a classic base, I look at the rest of the sector/group leadership. Hopefully, I'll find confirmation in the charts of others in the group. I try to narrow the list to 2 -3 of the best charts and watch for a move simultaneously in more than one from a sound base. This of course assumes it passes some fundamental screens. I use as a minimum starting point, an EPS of 70. Here is why. As of 4/9/99. Source of data: Stocktables.com Breakdown of RS90+ performing stocks by EPS percentile. RS Rank.......99...98...97...96...95...94...93...92...91...90 Total %Tot EPS90-99.......2....3....6...13....8...10...12...10....8...12 = 84 22% EPS80-89.......2....5....0....6....3....9...10....5...10...10 = 60 16% EPS70-79.......7...10...11...10....8....3 ....6....7...12....6 = 80 21% EPS60-69.......5....1....1....4....1....2 ....3....7....6....2 = 32 08% EPS50-59.......6....5....4....2....4....3 ....6....4....3....2 = 39 10% EPS40-49.......5....6....3....3....7....1 ....2....2....2....6 = 37 10% EPS30-39......10....3....8....4....4....4 ....8....2....2....2 = 47 12% Total = 379 Regards, Frank Wolynski At 01:56 AM 4/10/99 -0400, you wrote: > Hi Marc, > >> To answer your questions, I rely on the "new" or "Nouveau Canslim" >> cookbook as published by WON in his IBD series last summer. >> This is the best update for HTMMIS which, as Tom says, is in dire >> need of revision. Be warned, the following is what works for me... >> it may or may not work for you. >> >> I value the NSLIM in CANSLIM the highest. >> >> CA: it is important but some of the best stocks to invest in >> recently have had no earnings at all. If there are earnings, they >> should be growing strongly and steadily. If there are no >> earnings, then rather than ignore the stock, I look for very >> strong revenue growth and the prospect of substantial earnings in >> the future. >> >> In a nutshell, give me great earnings or no earnings. >> Just don't give me bad earnings. >> >> N: classic Canslim here. >> >> S: low supply is the rocket fuel for many of the internet >> stocks. For example, DCLK has a small float now, >> and had a minuscule one before the stock split. >> Combine that with institutions convinced that >> this stock will dominate internet advertising, and you get a >> panic to buy and from shelves that are almost empty. Having >> said that, I still buy lots of big caps, provided they are not >> over-owned by institutions. >> >> L: I look for a very high Relative Strength rating (90+) , >> and for a company which leads or dominates its Industry. I also >> pay more attention to sector rotation and Group Strength than >> most Canslimmers would. I won't buy anything in a lower rated >> group - ever. >> >> I: I like to keep track of what some of the big funds are buying, >> although the information available is usually getting stale >> by the time it is published. >> Still, if you know what the Janus-20 type funds are buying, >> it is very good news for the stocks in question. >> Funds of this type pour huge amounts of money into a very limited >> number of the same big caps week after week. >> Makes for great liquidity and support. >> >> M: classic Canslim here, with extra weight given to the >> bull and bear numbers published weekly in IBD and Barron's. >> Marder is outstanding here in applying Canslim M analysis >> to current market conditions. >> I also have a degree in economics, >> but I try not to let that get in my way. >> >> After screening stocks through Canslim, I do technical analysis: >> Trendlines, MA's, OBV, MF, Macd-Osc, Slosto, P-Vol, N-Vol, >> DM, and ADX on every candidate. Some of these tools will >> be more appropriate than others depending upon market >> conditions. I would recommend Alexander Elder's book >> Trading for a Living as a good starting point. >> Murphy's The Visual Investor is another. >> >> I do some of the detailed fundamental analysis that you mention, >> but I rely less on ratios than simple quarter to quarter or >> year to year comparisons, e.g. are receivables moving up or >> down? Are margins contracting or expanding? >> >> You asked about EBAY. I have been tracking it but am not >> in it. Chart looks good, though I don't like the MF and would >> have preferred higher volume for an internet breakout. >> >> Funny you mention EXDS. I just started investigating it today. >> Am trying to understand how this company will work and >> position itself in the marketplace before doing the Canslim >> thing and the TA.. >> >> WLFI I would eliminate because of industry group >> strength (or lack thereof). >> >> FWRD looks like an air transport stock, and I don't like >> transports until I have a better grip on what is going on in >> the energy market. >> >> Hope this has helped >> >> Walter > >> >Most of these internet stocks still don't have much in the way of >> earnings - >> >so do you use mostly features such as leadership, sales increases, >> >increasing margins and technical pointers? Do you use any other >> features >> >such as inverted cash flow, which AMZN runs off?? I see that the >> ratio I >> >quoted for these stocks in an earlier message is powerful ie (low or >> less >> >than 1). Do you use something like this to assess them? >> > >> >(current assets - cash and cash equivalents)/(current liabilities - >> short >> >term debts) >> > >> >From >> >http://www.fool.com/portfolios/RuleMaker/1999/RuleMaker990329.htm >> >http://www.fool.com/portfolios/RuleMaker/1999/RuleMaker990330.htm >> > >> >I see EBAY is close to its old high of $177 on large volume today >> coming off >> >a period of consolidation. >> >Have you looked at EXODUS communications (EXDS) - massive sales >> increases >> >and possible dominance in its area, but I don't know much about it. >> If you >> >have good insight into these internet stocks I would appreciate your >> >opinion. >> >For original CANSLIM stocks - take a look at XTRM - all the features >> and >> >broke out today on volume, only its a small cap! Broke out of handle >> from >> >cup on volume (need at least a 15 month chart to see this) >> > >> >Also look at WLFI (Winsloew furniture) great but poor industry group >> RS of >> >38, FWRD in another wrong industry group! >> > >> > >> >Marc >> > > > > >- > > - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Barry Marx" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] New feature at DGO Date: 10 Apr 1999 12:17:54 -0400 Below is the result of a Quotes Plus scan that I ran to look for stocks within 5% of their 52 week high, but below it. It is also filtered to require a 50-day average volume of at least 250,000. I didn't filter for earnings, but the few I took a quick glance at all looked pretty good. There are 160 stocks in the list. Hope this is useful to some. Barry A, ASTRA AB ADR SPONS SHS A AA, ALCOA INC COM ABT, ABBOTT LABS COM ADBE, ADOBE SYS INC COM ADCT, ADC TELECOMMUNICATION INC COM ADLAC, ADELPHIA COMMUNICATIONS CORP CL A AFS, ASSOCIATES FIRST CAP CORP CL A AGPH, AGOURON PHARMACEUTICALS INC COM AHP, AMERICAN HOME PRODS CORP COM AIG, AMERICAN INTL GROUP INC COM ALD, ALLIED SIGNAL INC COM ALTR, ALTERA CORP COM AMAT, APPLIED MATLS INC COM AMES, AMES DEPT STORES INC COM NEW AMGN, AMGEN INC COM AMZN, AMAZON COM INC COM AOL, AMERICA ONLINE INC COM ASML, ASM LITHOGRAPHY HLDGS N V ORD ASND, ASCEND COMMUNICATIONS INC COM AUD, AUTOMATIC DATA PROCESSING COM BBBY, BED BATH & BEYOND INC COM BBY, BEST BUY INC COM BEAM, SUMMIT TECHNOLOGY INC COM BGEN, BIOGEN INC COM BJ, BJS WHSL CLUB INC COM BK, BANK NEW YORK INC COM BMET, BIOMET INC COM BMY, BRISTOL MYERS SQUIBB CO COM BNYN, BANYAN SYS INC COM BPA, BP AMOCO P L C ADR SPONSORED BSX, BOSTON SCIENTIFIC CORP COM BUD, ANHEUSER BUSCH COS INC COM CCU, CLEAR CHANNEL COMMUNICATIONS COM CDO, COMDISCO INC COM CI, CIGNA CORP COM CL, COLGATE PALMOLIVE CO COM CMB, CHASE MANHATTAN CORP NEW COM CNCX, CONCENTRIC NETWORK CORP DEL COM COST, COSTCO COS INC COM COX, COX COMMUNICATIONS INC NEW CL A CSCO, CISCO SYS INC COM CSN, CINCINNATI BELL INC COM CTL, CENTURY TEL ENTERPRISES INC COM CTV, COMMSCOPE INC COM CTYA, CENTURY COMMUNICATIONS CORP CL A CUST, CUSTOMTRACKS CORP COM CVC, CABLEVISION SYS CORP CL A DCLK, DOUBLECLICK INC COM DG, DOLLAR GEN CORP COM DHR, DANAHER CORP SHS BEN INT DIA, DIAMONDS TR UNIT SER 1 DNB, DUN & BRADSTREET CORP DEL COM DOW, DOW CHEM CO COM DSP, DSP COMMUNICATIONS INC COM EFII, ELECTRONICS FOR IMAGING INC COM EGRP, E TRADE GROUP INC COM ELNK, EARTHLINK NETWORK INC COM FDC, FIRST DATA CORP COM FDO, FAMILY DLR STORES INC COM FDX, FDX CORP COM FNHC, FINET HLDGS CORP COM PAR $0.01 FO, FORTUNE BRANDS INC COM FRO, FRONTIER CORP COM FRX, FOREST LABS INC COM FSR, FIRSTAR CORP NEW WIS COM GD, GENERAL DYNAMICS CORP COM GE, GENERAL ELEC CO COM GILTF, GILAT SATELLITE NETWORKS LTD ORD GLW, CORNING INC COM GMH, GENERAL MTRS CORP CL H NEW GNE, GENENTECH INC SPL COM GNET, GO2NET INC COM GTSG, GLOBAL TELESYSTEMS GROUP INC COM HBAN, HUNTINGTON BANCSHARES INC COM HDI, HARLEY DAVIDSON INC COM HIG, HARTFORD FINL SVCS GROUP INC COM HLIT, HARMONIC INC COM HRB, BLOCK H & R INC COM IBI, INTIMATE BRANDS INC CL A ICOS, ICOS CORP COM IMCL, IMCLONE SYS INC COM INTU, INTUIT INC COM IR, INGERSOLL RAND CO COM ITCD, ITC DELTACOM INC COM JCOR, JACOR COMMUNICATIONS INC COM KSS, KOHLS CORP COM LLTC, LINEAR TECHNOLOGY CORP COM LNC, LINCOLN NATL CORP COM LOW, LOWES COS INC COM LU, LUCENT TECHNOLOGIES INC COM LUV, SOUTHWEST AIRLS CO COM LXK, LEXMARK INTL GROUP INC CL A MBK, BANK TOKYO-MITSUBISHI LTD ADR SPONSORED MCD, MCDONALDS CORP COM MFNX, METROMEDIA FIBER NETWORK INC CL A MII, MORTON INTL INC IND NEW COM MMC, MARSH & MCLENNAN COS INC COM MOB, MOBIL CORP COM MRK, MERCK & CO INC COM MSFT, MICROSOFT CORP COM MSPG, MINDSPRING ENTERPRISES INC COM MXIM, MAXIM INTEGRATED PRODS INC COM NAV, NAVISTAR INTL CORP NEW COM NCBC, NATIONAL COMM BANCORPORATION COM NKE, NIKE INC CL B NOBE, NORDSTROM INC COM NT, NORTHERN TELECOM LTD COM NTAP, NETWORK APPLIANCE INC COM NTLI, NTL INC COM NXTL, NEXTEL COMMUNICATIONS INC CL A OSI, OUTDOOR SYS INC COM PKN, PERKIN ELMER CORP COM PKX, POHANG IRON & STL LTD ADR SPONSORED PMCS, PMC-SIERRA INC COM PNU, PHARMACIA & UPJOHN INC COM PSUN, PACIFIC SUNWEAR CALIF INC COM PWAV, POWERWAVE TECHNOLOGIES INC COM QCOM, QUALCOMM INC COM RBD, RUBBERMAID INC COM RFMD, RF MICRO DEVICES INC COM RNWK, REALNETWORKS INC COM RTN A, RAYTHEON CO CL A RTN B, RAYTHEON CO CL B SDLI, SDL INC COM SNE, SONY CORP ADR SNS, SUNDSTRAND CORP COM SPLS, STAPLES INC COM STT, STATE STR CORP COM SUNW, SUN MICROSYSTEMS INC COM TA, TRANSAMERICA CORP COM TEVIY, TEVA PHARMACEUTICAL INDS LTD ADR TFONY, TELEFONOS DE MEXICO S A ADR NOMINATIVE TLAB, TELLABS INC COM TMPW, TMP WORLDWIDE INC COM TMX, TELEFONOS DE MEXICO S A ADR REP ORD L TRB, TRIBUNE CO NEW COM TSBS, PEOPLES BANCORP INC DEL COM TWX, TIME WARNER INC COM TXN, TEXAS INSTRS INC COM TXT, TEXTRON INC COM UMG, MEDIAONE GROUP INC COM UNPH, UNIPHASE CORP COM USG, USG CORP COM NEW UTX, UNITED TECHNOLOGIES CORP COM VIA B, VIACOM INC CL B VO, SEAGRAM LTD COM VOD, VODAFONE GROUP PLC ADR SPONSORED WCOM, MCI WORLDCOM INC COM WEN, WENDYS INTL INC COM WFC, WELLS FARGO & CO NEW COM WWCA, WESTERN WIRELESS CORP CL A WY, WEYERHAEUSER CO COM XCIT, EXCITE INC COM XLNX, XILINX INC COM XON, EXXON CORP COM XRX, XEROX CORP COM XTON, EXECUTONE INFORMATION SYS COM XYLN, XYLAN CORP COM YUM, TRICON GLOBAL RESTAURANTS COM ZION, ZIONS BANCORPORATION COM - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Marc Laniado" Subject: [CANSLIM] Stock selection principles Date: 10 Apr 1999 17:36:52 +0100 Dear Walter, Thank you for your detailed and I will look up those books you recommend. Last week I changed my approach to focussing on the groups with high RS and those with the most new highs. This has been more effective. I am also following the changes in group RS to identify the best groups to be in. I think Tom's post on stocks approaching new highs in DGO is helpful. I myself use the stocks which are 'timely' in DGO (I don't know how these are decided) and select (with the help of Excel) from groups with RS > 75 A/D A or B SMR A/B Increasing RS on stock graph I currently own NITE, ADCT, CMVT, EMC and NTAP. NTAP's group is not that strong, although both EMC and NTAP have been ok. Again, it seems now that stocks to buy must have superstar earnings increases and be in the top groups. I do see that RCCK, a CANSLIM stock in a weak group, did fantastically yesterday. I was 'advised' to buy MSGI before it broke out, but I didn't because it had declining sales. EXDS has great sales, No 'C' or 'A' (!!), a little too much debt for my liking but otherwise looks really good with a flow ratio of 0.48 for the last four quarters. There is something good about this company. It broke out when Hambrecht and Quist recommended it and I was tempted to buy it. I didn't because I didn't really understand it and have been trying to stick my principles. Part of CANSLIM is 'listening to what the market tells you' and David Ryan says himself in his tape and interview that he will buy from groups without earnings. I feel we need to understand these stocks with huge sales increases, get away from the hype and work out some rules by which to judge them (you have!). I am trying to develop them too. Thanks again Marc Marc E Laniado marclaniado@msn.com -----Original Message----- > Hi Marc, > >> To answer your questions, I rely on the "new" or "Nouveau Canslim" >> cookbook as published by WON in his IBD series last summer. >> This is the best update for HTMMIS which, as Tom says, is in dire >> need of revision. Be warned, the following is what works for me... >> it may or may not work for you. >> >> I value the NSLIM in CANSLIM the highest. >> >> CA: it is important but some of the best stocks to invest in >> recently have had no earnings at all. If there are earnings, they >> should be growing strongly and steadily. If there are no >> earnings, then rather than ignore the stock, I look for very >> strong revenue growth and the prospect of substantial earnings in >> the future. >> >> In a nutshell, give me great earnings or no earnings. >> Just don't give me bad earnings. >> >> N: classic Canslim here. >> >> S: low supply is the rocket fuel for many of the internet >> stocks. For example, DCLK has a small float now, >> and had a minuscule one before the stock split. >> Combine that with institutions convinced that >> this stock will dominate internet advertising, and you get a >> panic to buy and from shelves that are almost empty. Having >> said that, I still buy lots of big caps, provided they are not >> over-owned by institutions. >> >> L: I look for a very high Relative Strength rating (90+) , >> and for a company which leads or dominates its Industry. I also >> pay more attention to sector rotation and Group Strength than >> most Canslimmers would. I won't buy anything in a lower rated >> group - ever. >> >> I: I like to keep track of what some of the big funds are buying, >> although the information available is usually getting stale >> by the time it is published. >> Still, if you know what the Janus-20 type funds are buying, >> it is very good news for the stocks in question. >> Funds of this type pour huge amounts of money into a very limited >> number of the same big caps week after week. >> Makes for great liquidity and support. >> >> M: classic Canslim here, with extra weight given to the >> bull and bear numbers published weekly in IBD and Barron's. >> Marder is outstanding here in applying Canslim M analysis >> to current market conditions. >> I also have a degree in economics, >> but I try not to let that get in my way. >> >> After screening stocks through Canslim, I do technical analysis: >> Trendlines, MA's, OBV, MF, Macd-Osc, Slosto, P-Vol, N-Vol, >> DM, and ADX on every candidate. Some of these tools will >> be more appropriate than others depending upon market >> conditions. I would recommend Alexander Elder's book >> Trading for a Living as a good starting point. >> Murphy's The Visual Investor is another. >> >> I do some of the detailed fundamental analysis that you mention, >> but I rely less on ratios than simple quarter to quarter or >> year to year comparisons, e.g. are receivables moving up or >> down? Are margins contracting or expanding? >> >> You asked about EBAY. I have been tracking it but am not >> in it. Chart looks good, though I don't like the MF and would >> have preferred higher volume for an internet breakout. >> >> Funny you mention EXDS. I just started investigating it today. >> Am trying to understand how this company will work and >> position itself in the marketplace before doing the Canslim >> thing and the TA.. >> >> WLFI I would eliminate because of industry group >> strength (or lack thereof). >> >> FWRD looks like an air transport stock, and I don't like >> transports until I have a better grip on what is going on in >> the energy market. >> >> Hope this has helped >> >> Walter > >> >Most of these internet stocks still don't have much in the way of >> earnings - >> >so do you use mostly features such as leadership, sales increases, >> >increasing margins and technical pointers? Do you use any other >> features >> >such as inverted cash flow, which AMZN runs off?? I see that the >> ratio I >> >quoted for these stocks in an earlier message is powerful ie (low or >> less >> >than 1). Do you use something like this to assess them? >> > >> >(current assets - cash and cash equivalents)/(current liabilities - >> short >> >term debts) >> > >> >From >> >http://www.fool.com/portfolios/RuleMaker/1999/RuleMaker990329.htm >> >http://www.fool.com/portfolios/RuleMaker/1999/RuleMaker990330.htm >> > >> >I see EBAY is close to its old high of $177 on large volume today >> coming off >> >a period of consolidation. >> >Have you looked at EXODUS communications (EXDS) - massive sales >> increases >> >and possible dominance in its area, but I don't know much about it. >> If you >> >have good insight into these internet stocks I would appreciate your >> >opinion. >> >For original CANSLIM stocks - take a look at XTRM - all the features >> and >> >broke out today on volume, only its a small cap! Broke out of handle >> from >> >cup on volume (need at least a 15 month chart to see this) >> > >> >Also look at WLFI (Winsloew furniture) great but poor industry group >> RS of >> >38, FWRD in another wrong industry group! >> > >> > >> >Marc >> > > > > >- > > begin 666 Marc Elie Laniado.vcf M0D5'24XZ5D-!4D0-"DXZ3&%N:6%D;SM-87)C.T5L:64-"D9..DUA Subject: [CANSLIM] DGO New Highs, Economics, and stuff Date: 10 Apr 1999 12:39:46 -0400 Well, I did my share to add to the inflationary factors on cost of labor, getting a very hefty pay raise. On the other hand, my 12 to 14 hour work days also contribute to productivity, so could still be a wash. Nice to be appreciated for hard work, even nicer to be monetarily rewarded, esp with less than a year in the job. Last week's economics reports generally reaffirmed that inflation is not a problem. About the only significant increase came from energy, and already some stabilization in crude pricing is setting in as the players realize they can't count on the pledged production hikes really happening, or happening on the planned schedule. The labor mkt appears to have weakened in recent weeks, but still quite strong. The big news was rate cuts by UK and ECB (European Central Bank) in order to stimulate the local economy. This should further tie up Greenspan's hands towards any rate hike in the USA (and he still needs inflationary proof to do that). Despite the US economy continuing to run at above model rates, he can't afford to further strengthen an already strong US dollar with rate hikes. Having already achieved part of my forecast (rate cuts in Europe in the first half of 1999), I may have to hedge on the second half (rate hikes by USA by the end of 1999). Inventories increased last week, however sales kept pace, thanks in large part to further record levels of consumer credit. I still see this as a land mine waiting to be stepped on. Here's some stuff I snipped last week: From Infobeat's Internet report: As many as 200 million people around the world may be using the Internet within a year or so, according to a report from the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific. The study, reported by the Associated Press, estimated 25 to 30 million people in more than 140 countries were on the Net at the end of last year. The Commission study also said businesses using the Web are saving as much as 95 percent on some telephone calls, fax services and banking by phone. Analysts are hopeful e-tailers including Amazon.com and Ebay Inc. have been able to post sales greater than those they recorded during the Christmas selling season. The reason this is possible is the number of new people discovering the Web and shopping online, according to BancBoston Robertson Stephens analyst Lauren Cooks Levitan, Dow Jones reported. She estimates Amazon lost 29 cents a share on $260 million in revenue in the first quarter, compared with a 14-cent-a-share loss on $252.9 million in revenue in the fourth quarter. However, she believes Amazon will most likely beat her estimate, the report said, since its customer base has been growing rapidly. Hummm, let me see if I get this straight, increase sales, but increase losses at an even faster rate, and you are a winner?? Since when did we give analysts the right to have emotions like "hopeful", thought they were supposed to be a "nuts and bolts" type? Aren't their reports supposed to be based on things like "facts" and legitimate projections? OK, alright, on to the list from DGO of stocks making new highs last week. The total list was 317, up sharply from the prior week's total of 206, a 54% increase. The ones that were also of basic CANSLIM quality (RS/EPS over 80) totaled 119, an increase of 59%. And with another 190 CS quality stocks sitting within 5% of their highs, and VIX taming down to 22.91, starting to look good for CANSLIMers despite my pessimism. At least last week, with three of five trading days marked with new record highs on major indexes, we did see some breadth as both S&P500 and Nasdaq managed some of those new highs. And I note a return to this list of many major names, also a good sign. Here's the list from DGO: ABDR, INSS, SCF, GE, QCOM, HMC, LLTC, PRGX, PEGS, FM, JCI, DY, VRTS, SBUX, KCP, MSFT, INF, NEON, UNPH, FDO, ALTR, HRZ, VTSS, AMGN, SUNW, YHOO, (didn't I say some big names returned!!!), NTAP, MOSX, ARMHY, DHR, LEVL, ASND, CTL, ETEK, LXK, CSCO, ALD, COST, LU, TVGIA, EFII, WAT, RFMD, ABCO, BBBY, MBRS, CMVT, FWRD, POS, STT, ISCA, GLC, CPWM, TRB, SPLS, MXIM, AXP, TMPW, NT, SNE, ZLC, EL, BCE, NW, ATI, AEOSD, BJICA, TJX, AMES, TLAB, AULT, CCL, FON, ADCT, PROX, DH, FLEX, NOKA, NTRS, EUSA, MHP, BEBE, PVN, FNDTF, SCH, XTRM, BXM, HD, MTW, WMT, JAKK, IBI, RCCK, GPS, NITE, COF, DK, SGR, MMC, DSP, NDB, PFE, KSU, EMC, CLE, NTT, MWD, OMC, TIF, CDO, ANF, LM, ZQK, SLR, JNJ, JBL, DAL, FSR. I also note that nearly half of these (53) hit new highs on Friday. This, combined with the 190 within 5% of their highs, speaks well to me for next week. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Patrick Wahl" Subject: [CANSLIM] stocks Date: 10 Apr 1999 11:09:59 -0800 I did a scan of some stocks last night, here are a few that had some nice looking breakouts, don't have any EPS or RS data on them unfortunately, but worth doing a little research on - DSP, MCLD, NCBC. Also, for what this might be worth, on Friday the Russell 2000 had its highest close since mid-February. And there were more new highs than new lows on both NYSE and NASDAQ. Still pretty slender margin though. Also, for QP2 users, if you haven't doped this one out yet, I was a bit slow figuring this out so maybe I'm the last qp2 user on the planet to figure this out, anyway - I figured out that if you take the end of day market summary they send out with each days update, and edit it so that you remove all of the lines that don't contain a stock symbol in column one, (plus any stuff you don't want to look at, like AMEX stocks, stocks declining), then do a Save As and name the file whatever.LST in the directory where your other list files are, you can then open it in QP2 and read it just like any other list file. This is a good way to scan the charts of all the stocks moving up on heavier than average volume. This is also where the 3 stocks above came from. - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: dbphoenix Subject: [CANSLIM] Jubak (part of the Marder theme) Date: 10 Apr 1999 12:08:29 -0700 (PDT) Jubak's been on a roll lately, turning out several excellent pieces. Those who don't follow him would do well to look at his most recent four or five. Here is a link to the most recent: http://moneycentral.msn.com/articles/invest/jubak/3153.asp An index to his work can be found in a left sidebar. --Db === "Lessons are repeated until they are learned." http://home.talkcity.com//MoneySt/dbphoenix/ _________________________________________________________ Do You Yahoo!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: dbphoenix Subject: [CANSLIM] Newcomers Date: 10 Apr 1999 12:11:30 -0700 (PDT) I haven't been posting much lately since I've had to turn to strategies other than canslim in order to make the most out of this market. However, my website has a canslim slant to it, and goes into the charting aspects of canslim much more thoroughly than does the book. If you continue to find charting to be somewhat mysterious, the site may be of help to you. The link follows my signature. --Db === "Lessons are repeated until they are learned." http://home.talkcity.com//MoneySt/dbphoenix/ _________________________________________________________ Do You Yahoo!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: dbphoenix Subject: [CANSLIM] Frank/EPS 70 Date: 10 Apr 1999 12:15:09 -0700 (PDT) Your results confirm research done by a couple of HGSers who found that Box 2, 4, and 7 stocks outperformed all other categories (you'll recall that Box 7 stocks are turnarounds with EPS of 70 or greater). I suspect Box 7s will be tearing up the pavement during the coming months. Some of these stocks are at prices that come along only once in a very great while. --Db === "Lessons are repeated until they are learned." http://home.talkcity.com//MoneySt/dbphoenix/ _________________________________________________________ Do You Yahoo!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Frank V. Wolynski" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Frank/EPS 70 Date: 10 Apr 1999 17:24:07 -0400 At 12:15 PM 4/10/99 -0700, you wrote: > >Your results confirm research done by a couple of HGSers who found that Box >2, 4, and 7 stocks outperformed all other categories (you'll recall that >Box 7 stocks are turnarounds with EPS of 70 or greater). I suspect Box 7s >will be tearing up the pavement during the coming months. Some of these >stocks are at prices that come along only once in a very great while. > >--Db >=== I haven't looked beyond more than a handful of these young rockets, but the ones I have seem to indicate that revenue from sales is more than just important. It takes precedence over earnings. That promise of being the next msft, or csco. I'll take your word on the HGS box stuff. I know nothing of Ian's method. My loss. Looks like Comp/Software-Enterprise is making the first of a double bottom. Would this group qualify as representing a Box 7? Rogers Excel spreadsheet ( a most excellent list of stocks and group work ) always contains the reference to "Ian's Box", but I never knew what the reference was to. Is this too much off topic for the list? Thanks, Frank Wolynski - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: FBNAirPlt@aol.com Subject: [CANSLIM] Acc/Dis Numbers Date: 11 Apr 1999 00:50:39 EDT Here are the latest Acc/Dis Numbers: Date A B C D E AB/A:E %E 3/24/99 953 2357 1356 1229 654 51% 10% 3/25/99 838 2272 1353 1352 707 48% 11% 3/26/99 824 2282 1365 1336 711 48% 11% 3/29/99 856 2370 1344 1284 665 49% 10% 3/30/99 880 2363 1344 1291 663 50% 10% 3/31/99 917 2402 1334 1264 630 51% 10% 4/1/99 900 2387 1323 1284 635 50% 10% 4/5/99 876 2351 1298 1309 670 50% 10% 4/6/99 878 2337 1358 1277 654 49% 10% 4/7/99 904 2324 1359 1255 648 50% 10% 4/8/99 911 2264 1335 1315 647 49% 10% 4/9/99 903 2273 1287 1341 668 49% 10% 4/12/99 953 2243 1282 1336 660 49% 10% Spreadsheet version: Date,A,B,C,D,E,AB/A:E,%E 3/26/99,824,2282,1365,1336,711,48%,11% 3/29/99,856,2370,1344,1284,665,49%,10% 3/30/99,880,2363,1344,1291,663,50%,10% 3/31/99,917,2402,1334,1264,630,51%,10% 4/1/99,900,2387,1323,1284,635,50%,10% 4/5/99,876,2351,1298,1309,670,50%,10% 4/6/99,878,2337,1358,1277,654,49%,10% 4/7/99,904,2324,1359,1255,648,50%,10% 4/8/99,911,2264,1335,1315,647,49%,10% 4/9/99,903,2273,1287,1341,668,49%,10% 4/12/99,953,2243,1282,1336,660,49%,10% Robert - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: [CANSLIM] Fw: New Feature (DGO) Date: 11 Apr 1999 07:53:27 -0400 Sorry, but I was not surprised that DGO won't permit the distribution of this new list. I have already written back and encouraged them to continue the list beyond the two weeks, and suggest all other DGO subscribers do likewise. I have also again asked about a "group discount" rate. Will let you know what I hear. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html -----Original Message----- Hi Tom, Thank you for your recent email. We are glad to hear that you are enjoying the new list that we have provided. This list has been added as a form of appreciation to our subscribers for bearing with us through the disruption of service on Friday. Currently, we plan on providing this list for a period of two weeks. However, I will forward your email to the appropriate parties to express your desire to see this list on a regular basis. As for sharing the results of this list, this is not permitted under the terms of our service agreement. You can of course discuss the existence of this report on our service and its value for selecting stocks. Please write back if we can be of assistance to you. Best regards, Dan Daily Graphs Online > -----Original Message----- > From: Tom Worley [mailto:stkguru@netside.net] > Sent: Saturday, April 10, 1999 8:35 AM > To: Customer Service > Subject: New Feature > > > I notice this morning that there is a new report available, > the "Stocks Approaching New Highs". Would there be any > objection to my providing this list to my online CANSLIM > discussion group as both a "shopping list" to start > researching, as well as another way of showing them the > value of subscribing to DGO? > > By the way, from a fast glance, this list looks to be of far > greater value than the "New Highs" list I have been using. > Now, if you could just expand it a tad to include all > stocks, not just those already preselected to be in the > books. Come on, guys, you're online, don't be restrained by > the antiquated methods and costs of publishing BOOKS! > > Tom Worley > stkguru@netside.net > chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 > get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html > - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Tim Fisher Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Acc/Dis Numbers Date: 11 Apr 1999 07:12:15 -0700 Thanks, this has gotten me to tighten my stops this morning! Not much supporting this market, is there? At 12:50 AM 4/11/99 -0400, you wrote: >Here are the latest Acc/Dis Numbers: > >Date A B C D E AB/A:E %E >3/24/99 953 2357 1356 1229 654 51% 10% >3/25/99 838 2272 1353 1352 707 48% 11% >3/26/99 824 2282 1365 1336 711 48% 11% >3/29/99 856 2370 1344 1284 665 49% 10% >3/30/99 880 2363 1344 1291 663 50% 10% >3/31/99 917 2402 1334 1264 630 51% 10% >4/1/99 900 2387 1323 1284 635 50% 10% >4/5/99 876 2351 1298 1309 670 50% 10% >4/6/99 878 2337 1358 1277 654 49% 10% >4/7/99 904 2324 1359 1255 648 50% 10% >4/8/99 911 2264 1335 1315 647 49% 10% >4/9/99 903 2273 1287 1341 668 49% 10% >4/12/99 953 2243 1282 1336 660 49% 10% > Tim Fisher, 1995 President, Pacific Fishery Biologists Ore-ROCK-On Rockhounding Web Site PFB Information mailto:tim@OreRockOn.com WWW http://OreRockOn.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Marc Laniado" Subject: [CANSLIM] Interesting stocks Date: 11 Apr 1999 16:36:02 +0100 Here are some interesting stocks BEBE: broke out on a cup GLC broke out NDB made a cup and reached high BXM broke out PS Is anyone holding ANF? I sold it because it made new highs on low vol. However, it has started rising again on reasonable volume. In DGO it says it has a load of debt, but other sources report 0 debt (its a franchise). This company has extraordinary margins and the lowest receivables and inventories. It has, IMHO, the best possibility for growth in its group. Is anyone holding it and does anyone think it should be bought again. Grateful for thoughts! Marc Marc E Laniado marclaniado@msn.com begin 666 Marc Elie Laniado.vcf M0D5'24XZ5D-!4D0-"DXZ3&%N:6%D;SM-87)C.T5L:64-"D9..DUA Subject: [CANSLIM] QCOM - ? High tight flag? Date: 11 Apr 1999 16:37:29 +0100 Does anyone think QCOM might become a high tight flag??? Marc Marc E Laniado marclaniado@msn.com begin 666 Marc Elie Laniado.vcf M0D5'24XZ5D-!4D0-"DXZ3&%N:6%D;SM-87)C.T5L:64-"D9..DUA Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] QCOM - ? High tight flag? Date: 11 Apr 1999 11:49:53 -0700 Looks interesting to me. Volume really dropped yesterday. Peter Newell -----Original Message----- >Does anyone think QCOM might become a high tight flag??? >Marc > >Marc E Laniado >marclaniado@msn.com > > > > - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Marc Laniado" Subject: [CANSLIM] Fw: Approaching new highs Date: 11 Apr 1999 20:00:06 +0100 Dear Tom, I took up your suggestion about asking for that new listing to be made permanent. I think it would be useful if we could also have the sponsorship rating and the daily volume or change in volume as a percentage. As I live in England, I cannot get IBD and rely on reported sponsorship percentages (not quality) from MS investor. It really is a disappointment to be unable to get IBD here. All the best, Marc Marc E Laniado marclaniado@msn.com Tel/Fax: +44 171 731 1354 Mobile +44 973 344 439 -----Original Message----- >Hi Marc, > >Thank you for your recent email to Daily Graphs Online. > >We appreciate your feedback regarding the new report. I will be certain to >forward your email to our development committee so that they can gauge the >response to this recent addition. > >Please write back if you have other comments or need assistance of any kind. > >Best regards, >Dan >Daily Graphs Online > >> -----Original Message----- >> From: Marc Laniado [mailto:marclaniado@msn.com] >> Sent: Sunday, April 11, 1999 6:49 AM >> To: Customer Service >> Subject: Approaching new highs >> >> >> The stocks approaching new highs is very useful. I think this should >> always >> be available. Currently, DGO is still expensive compared to MS Investor >> finder and other services around. It would be very helpful if this >> distinguishing feature would be continued. >> Marc >> >> Marc E Laniado >> marclaniado@msn.com >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> > begin 666 Marc Elie Laniado.vcf M0D5'24XZ5D-!4D0-"DXZ3&%N:6%D;SM-87)C.T5L:64-"D9..DUA Subject: [CANSLIM] Stock selection principles Date: 11 Apr 1999 15:10:12 -0400 Afternoon Marc, Interesting portfolio, Marc. You have lots of communications equipment and computer storage stocks in the mix. I have gotten a little more nervous about tech hardware stocks recently, and haven't owned any in some time. Fortunately, yours do not seem as vulnerable to the spreading weakness in PC and PC-related stocks (especially after the ugly CPQ announcement late Friday). NITE looks tasty though. Their announcement of the new eKNIGHT web product on Thursday may signal a very important development for this company in terms of electronic trading. Unfortunately, chartwise, the breakout is behind us. The stock may or may not still have momentum from here on. Your RCCK is classified as a Consumer Financial stock which might make it part of a weaker group as you say. But I think its new Internet mortgage and loan unit RockLoans.com has given it some Internet sector coat-tails ! The good results so far and the move into California bode well for this company. Thank you for pointing this company out. I will be keeping an eye it. I think your new method of screening for stocks looks good, and I don't see any reason that it won't give you some promising candidates for further research. (And don't forget the technical analysis either.) Walter >Dear Walter, >Thank you for your detailed and I will look up those books you recommend. >Last week I changed my approach to focussing on the groups with high RS and >those with the most new highs. This has been more effective. I am also >following the changes in group RS to identify the best groups to be in. I >think Tom's post on stocks approaching new highs in DGO is helpful. I myself >use the stocks which are 'timely' in DGO (I don't know how these are >decided) and select (with the help of Excel) from >groups with RS > 75 >A/D A or B >SMR A/B >Increasing RS on stock graph >I currently own NITE, ADCT, CMVT, EMC and NTAP. NTAP's group is not that >strong, although both EMC and NTAP have been ok. >Again, it seems now that stocks to buy must have superstar earnings >increases and be in the top groups. I do see that RCCK, a CANSLIM stock in a >weak group, did fantastically yesterday. > >I was 'advised' to buy MSGI before it broke out, but I didn't because it had >declining sales. EXDS has great sales, No 'C' or 'A' (!!), a little too much >debt for my liking but otherwise looks really good with a flow ratio of 0.48 >for the last four quarters. There is something good about this company. It >broke out when Hambrecht and Quist recommended it and I was tempted to buy >it. I didn't because I didn't really understand it and have been trying to >stick my principles. Part of CANSLIM is 'listening to what the market tells >you' and David Ryan says himself in his tape and interview that he will buy >from groups without earnings. I feel we need to understand these stocks with >huge sales increases, get away from the hype and work out some rules by >which to judge them (you have!). I am trying to develop them too. > >Thanks again >Marc - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Marc Laniado" Subject: [CANSLIM] BEBE Date: 11 Apr 1999 22:08:52 +0100 I was just checking out BEBE versus the others including ANF. Advantages Gross margins (55%) and net margins (12 - 16%) better than others less inventory and receivables no debt positive cash flow positive working capital Flow ratio is falling (good) 0.71, 0.91, 0.96 and is better than the other groups. Its in a good group (RS 93) and broke out after the others ie ANF, GPS etc so it might appear as a laggard, but its fundamentals would suggest otherwise. Stability of earnings are 99 in DGO which is not good, but as the last 2 quarters are good, I am not sure if stability of earnings is necessarily so important in this case. As GPS has broken out with good earnings (leader), I would think BEBE would be a good buy. Please comment!! Marc E Laniado marclaniado@msn.com begin 666 Marc Elie Laniado.vcf M0D5'24XZ5D-!4D0-"DXZ3&%N:6%D;SM-87)C.T5L:64-"D9..DUA Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Interesting stocks Date: 11 Apr 1999 17:08:37 -0400 Marc, I don't see the c&h on NDB, looks more like it consolidated the gains of early Feb, then took off on volume along with a number of other broker dealer stocks. On ANF, I see this as a pretty typical LLUR (lower left upper right) chart. Moving up on light volume isn't necessarily a negative, as this stock has never really based, therefore doesn't need to "break out" of a base on heavy volume. Note that the up/down volume ratio is only 1.0, yet it has continued to make new highs. I see no reason to have sold, nor anything preventing you going back in at a higher price, all you've done is miss a part of the ride. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html -----Original Message----- Here are some interesting stocks BEBE: broke out on a cup GLC broke out NDB made a cup and reached high BXM broke out PS Is anyone holding ANF? I sold it because it made new highs on low vol. However, it has started rising again on reasonable volume. In DGO it says it has a load of debt, but other sources report 0 debt (its a franchise). This company has extraordinary margins and the lowest receivables and inventories. It has, IMHO, the best possibility for growth in its group. Is anyone holding it and does anyone think it should be bought again. Grateful for thoughts! Marc Marc E Laniado marclaniado@msn.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Marc Laniado" Subject: [CANSLIM] ANF Date: 11 Apr 1999 23:53:03 +0100 Thanks Tom for explaining all that. Marc Marc E Laniado marclaniado@msn.com begin 666 Marc Elie Laniado.vcf M0D5'24XZ5D-!4D0-"DXZ3&%N:6%D;SM-87)C.T5L:64-"D9..DUA Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Frank/EPS 70 Date: 11 Apr 1999 16:21:38 -0700 (PDT) <> I don't know why it would be. Current Earnings Growth Rate Annual Earnings >100 50-100 25-50 >50 #1 #2 #3 25-50 #4 #5 #6 15-25 #7 #8 #9 (also turn-arounds) All great stocks go through their growth life cycle phase, where they start off as a Box 7 stock, jump rapidly to Box 1, and stay dominant for a lot longer than most in Box 1 (the true sign of a great stock). They only gradually drop down to Box 5 and then to Box 9 before going out the door of the main arena to Box 10. Once these leaders become Box 5 Stocks, they just don't have the stamina to stay tight through an intermediate correction. Box 1 stocks double in Earnings Growth every year, Box 5 every two years and Box 9 every three years. Box 7 is also known as the "Turn Around" Box, where stocks that have stubbed their toe with poor "Annual" earnings come back with >100% Current Earnings Growth Rate in the last two quarters to compensate for it. These stocks rise rapidly in anticipation that the Company has recovered. --Db === "Lessons are repeated until they are learned." http://home.talkcity.com//MoneySt/dbphoenix/ _________________________________________________________ Do You Yahoo!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] stocks Date: 11 Apr 1999 20:25:43 -0400 Hello Patrick, MCLD would fail most any CS test on EPS and extension from any base, but the other two look attractive on their CS elements. DSP in particular shows RS 92, EPS 96. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html -----Original Message----- I did a scan of some stocks last night, here are a few that had some nice looking breakouts, don't have any EPS or RS data on them unfortunately, but worth doing a little research on - DSP, MCLD, NCBC. - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: [CANSLIM] Monday's market Date: 11 Apr 1999 20:53:29 -0400 Right now, futures and the Asian mkt are forecasting a payback for last week's unsupported new highs. S&P500 down over 1%, and Naz well over 2% down. Will be interesting to see how this trend goes overnight, but I don't expect it to turn positive for the open. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Tim Fisher Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] BEBE Date: 11 Apr 1999 19:54:24 -0700 If I already had ANF and GPS (I do) or had missed the breakouts, I would go for AEOS before I went lower in the group. At 10:08 PM 4/11/99 +0100, you wrote: >I was just checking out BEBE versus the others including ANF. >Advantages >Gross margins (55%) and net margins (12 - 16%) better than others >less inventory and receivables >no debt >positive cash flow >positive working capital >Flow ratio is falling (good) 0.71, 0.91, 0.96 and is better than the other >groups. > >Its in a good group (RS 93) and broke out after the others ie ANF, GPS etc >so it might appear as a laggard, but its fundamentals would suggest >otherwise. Stability of earnings are 99 in DGO which is not good, but as the >last 2 quarters are good, I am not sure if stability of earnings is >necessarily so important in this case. As GPS has broken out with good >earnings (leader), I would think BEBE would be a good buy. > >Please comment!! > >Marc E Laniado >marclaniado@msn.com > > > > > > > >- > Tim Fisher, 1995 President, Pacific Fishery Biologists Ore-ROCK-On Rockhounding Web Site PFB Information mailto:tim@OreRockOn.com WWW http://OreRockOn.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Ronald J. Russell, Jr." Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] BEBE Date: 11 Apr 1999 23:47:16 -0400 I noticed AEOS coming up on DGO with a symbol AEOSD. According to the NASDAQ Web site, the "D" means "New". Since this is not a new stock I don't understand the symbol change. Does anyone know what is happening with this stock and specifically why the symbol change? Ron -----Original Message----- [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com] On Behalf Of Tim Fisher Sent: Sunday, April 11, 1999 10:54 PM If I already had ANF and GPS (I do) or had missed the breakouts, I would go for AEOS before I went lower in the group. At 10:08 PM 4/11/99 +0100, you wrote: >I was just checking out BEBE versus the others including ANF. >Advantages >Gross margins (55%) and net margins (12 - 16%) better than others >less inventory and receivables >no debt >positive cash flow >positive working capital >Flow ratio is falling (good) 0.71, 0.91, 0.96 and is better than the other >groups. > >Its in a good group (RS 93) and broke out after the others i.e. ANF, GPS etc >so it might appear as a laggard, but its fundamentals would suggest >otherwise. Stability of earnings are 99 in DGO which is not good, but as the >last 2 quarters are good, I am not sure if stability of earnings is >necessarily so important in this case. As GPS has broken out with good >earnings (leader), I would think BEBE would be a good buy. > >Please comment!! > >Marc E Laniado >marclaniado@msn.com > > > > > > > >- > Tim Fisher, 1995 President, Pacific Fishery Biologists Ore-ROCK-On Rockhounding Web Site PFB Information mailto:tim@OreRockOn.com WWW http://OreRockOn.com - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: AEOS (was Re: [CANSLIM] BEBE) Date: 12 Apr 1999 06:27:00 -0400 Normally the "D" suffix is used following a reverse split, lasts about a month before returning to its regular symbol, to permit settling any issues relating to the pre-split shares. I don't know this stock, but that's the most common case. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html -----Original Message----- I noticed AEOS coming up on DGO with a symbol AEOSD. According to the NASDAQ Web site, the "D" means "New". Since this is not a new stock I don't understand the symbol change. Does anyone know what is happening with this stock and specifically why the symbol change? Ron - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: [CANSLIM] AEOS Date: 12 Apr 1999 06:37:52 -0400 Did a little more checking around, there is an upcoming split (2:1) but it's a forward split, not a reverse one. And it doesn't happen until May 3. The symbol change happened April 8. The only other answer I came up with is that the reorganization mentioned below changed the parent company into a holding company. WARRENDALE, Pa., March 29 /PRNewswire/ -- American Eagle Outfitters, Inc. (Nasdaq: AEOS - news) today announced that its Board of Directors has approved a two- for-one stock split of American Eagle Outfitters common stock. The additional shares will be distributed on May 3, 1999, to stockholders of record on April 23, 1999. The Company also announced the completion of its pending reorganization with Natco Industries, Inc., effective March 29, 1999. The reorganization has implemented a holding company structure for American Eagle without any other significant changes in the Company's business and operations. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Connie Mack Rea Subject: [CANSLIM] DELL [Connie Mack] Date: 12 Apr 1999 07:49:09 -0400 I've just a small position of DELL leftover from the weekend. Compaq's bad earnings' news may give a chance to trade a little. There is a support between 40 and 40.5. I will consider buying a little after 10:30. I'd like to see some selling below this support before buying. There is some prospect that Compaq's woes will benefit DELL. May take some time for this to be understood. Connie Mack - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: TM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] DELL [Connie Mack] Date: 12 Apr 1999 05:23:00 -0700 (PDT) "I'd like to see some selling below this support before buying" Would that be a version of a shake out? TM --- Connie Mack Rea wrote: > I've just a small position of DELL leftover from the weekend. > > Compaq's bad earnings' news may give a chance to trade a little. There > is a support between 40 and 40.5. I will consider buying a little after > 10:30. I'd like to see some selling below this support before buying. > > There is some prospect that Compaq's woes will benefit DELL. May take > some time for this to be understood. > > Connie Mack > > > - > > _________________________________________________________ Do You Yahoo!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Ronald J. Russell, Jr." Subject: [CANSLIM] Weekly Stock List - April 9, 1999 Date: 11 Apr 1999 23:06:28 -0400 Hi All, First, my apologies for missing last week. After all of the Easter preparations and activities at Church, Little League preparations for the new season, and a mere 30 dinner guests for Easter dinner there just wasn't enough time to put the list together over the weekend. I had intended to get it out early in the week but then my cable modem went down. In the process I finally discovered a negative aspect of using a cable modem for access to the Web and email - you have to deal with your cable company for service. They treat you with the same disdain accorded to you if you call for service on your cable TV. They will get to you on their schedule which is fine if you don't have to work and can afford to sit home all day to see if they decide to show up. Somehow after I got totally disgusted and started getting ugly on the telephone and refused to take no for an answer, my service miraculously started working again without the need for a visit from a technician - coincidence I'm sure. Anyway, the list came in at 182 this week. Trade well, Ron Symbol EPS RS GRS ERG A/D Close 30 ADV ABDR 98 94 83 275 A $ 73.500 160,673 ACTL 81 86 94 261 B $ 16.880 387,983 ADBE 92 88 78 258 A $ 56.380 1,019,513 ADCT 95 94 91 280 A $ 50.440 1,457,940 ADVP 98 95 64 257 A $ 61.880 251,637 AGN 81 94 78 253 B $ 89.250 376,083 AGPH 72 93 87 252 A $ 59.000 479,067 AHAA 72 97 94 263 A $ 28.000 322,620 ALNT 77 90 75 242 A $ 45.000 175,633 ALTR 89 93 94 276 A $ 69.810 2,346,220 AMES 90 94 65 249 B $ 36.750 468,273 AMGN 93 96 87 276 A $ 78.060 4,161,886 ANF 99 96 93 288 A $ 96.630 536,980 AOL 77 99 99 275 A $ 159.940 22,767,686 ARX 85 89 86 260 B $ 16.250 123,813 ASML 70 94 89 253 B $ 48.380 1,210,050 ASND 97 95 93 285 A $ 98.060 3,805,550 ASTSF 71 87 94 252 B $ 21.440 190,053 AT 79 89 75 243 A $ 68.000 719,903 ATI 91 94 92 277 A $ 100.250 2,174,767 AVP 70 86 66 222 B $ 49.190 1,249,750 AVS 97 85 63 245 B $ 44.690 79,460 AXP 80 86 90 256 A $ 128.380 1,712,857 BBBY 97 89 68 254 A $ 36.750 1,730,733 BBY 73 97 95 265 B $ 53.750 2,021,707 BGF 95 88 90 273 B $ 31.380 264,667 BID 76 91 68 235 A $ 35.880 280,807 BMET 87 87 61 235 A $ 43.380 810,803 BOBJ 96 91 78 265 A $ 23.500 536,423 BSX 77 90 78 245 A $ 39.880 2,169,710 BSYS 88 88 73 249 A $ 55.880 174,123 BXM 81 96 87 264 A $ 80.000 188,930 CCL 95 90 86 271 A $ 52.190 1,084,960 CHCS 86 94 93 273 A $ 26.130 108,547 CLE 88 93 92 273 A $ 32.940 651,303 CLFY 97 92 78 267 B $ 21.500 436,030 CMB 71 88 84 243 B $ 85.560 3,392,374 CMGI 77 99 98 274 A $ 264.380 4,435,890 COF 88 93 90 271 A $ 158.880 452,793 COST 85 92 87 264 B $ 89.880 1,943,020 CPRT 94 94 83 271 B $ 19.380 152,360 CREE 99 97 94 290 A $ 48.130 221,933 CSCO 96 95 93 284 A $ 118.130 12,274,319 CSN 82 94 75 251 B $ 22.440 461,987 CTL 92 88 96 276 A $ 47.060 917,543 DAL 87 86 77 250 B $ 71.560 1,179,490 DDDDF 99 94 78 271 A $ 52.130 131,770 DELL 99 93 75 267 A $ 43.560 39,737,856 DG 93 87 87 267 A $ 35.630 634,257 DH 88 93 87 268 B $ 73.940 1,553,140 DL 84 91 66 241 A $ 35.500 435,733 DMMC 74 86 81 241 B $ 17.250 105,590 DSP 96 92 94 282 A $ 19.940 388,503 EFII 83 95 78 256 A $ 45.000 789,177 EL 87 89 66 242 B $ 93.880 179,493 EMC 97 97 72 266 A $ 134.880 4,221,090 ESRX 96 94 63 253 A $ 82.130 305,800 EUSA 89 94 85 268 A $ 38.000 140,010 EWB 88 88 62 238 A $ 53.690 101,020 EXPD 91 86 76 253 B $ 51.310 134,677 FDC 73 90 90 253 B $ 42.190 1,657,740 FDO 87 87 65 239 A $ 24.630 558,853 FLEX 99 97 86 282 A $ 56.250 948,487 FM 97 91 80 268 A $ 26.560 173,107 FNDTF 80 97 88 265 A $ 36.250 185,930 FON 80 93 96 269 B $ 108.750 1,053,803 FORE 85 89 93 267 B $ 23.000 6,282,649 FOSL 91 88 71 250 A $ 27.810 114,210 FS 70 90 82 242 A $ 37.690 81,653 GDT 91 92 78 261 A $ 65.250 1,302,377 GENZ 90 88 87 265 B $ 47.750 986,887 GEOC 84 95 78 257 A $ 39.380 208,957 GICOF 98 95 96 289 A $ 15.500 128,283 GILTF 97 90 91 278 A $ 60.060 168,800 GLC 94 90 74 258 A $ 57.130 156,323 GNSS 84 95 94 273 A $ 23.380 458,320 GPI 73 87 68 228 A $ 22.690 89,213 GPS 96 95 93 284 A $ 74.690 1,571,053 GTW 95 89 75 259 A $ 72.750 1,972,417 GUC 93 92 93 278 A $ 76.000 739,727 HD 95 92 69 256 A $ 67.310 3,256,577 HDI 94 92 74 260 A $ 58.060 490,383 HH 95 88 64 247 B $ 15.880 103,173 IBI 86 96 93 275 A $ 50.690 487,397 IBM 90 89 75 254 B $ 186.310 4,918,074 INSS 99 90 73 262 A $ 38.250 449,395 INTC 85 89 94 268 A $ 130.810 18,336,412 ISCA 90 93 86 269 A $ 54.500 89,943 ITGI 99 94 83 276 A $ 60.000 93,597 JAKK 99 96 79 274 A $ 19.810 129,400 JBL 82 97 86 265 A $ 49.130 1,130,783 JEF 77 87 97 261 A $ 52.130 120,610 KSS 93 92 65 250 A $ 75.190 608,997 KSWS 77 98 89 264 A $ 30.470 333,937 LEVL 88 95 94 277 B $ 53.440 2,392,453 LIN 92 92 72 256 B $ 47.690 246,710 LLTC 83 95 94 272 A $ 60.810 1,405,513 LM 86 88 97 271 A $ 37.630 173,077 LOW 93 94 69 256 B $ 64.310 1,476,167 LU 95 92 91 278 A $ 63.630 14,582,718 LUV 91 93 77 261 B $ 33.380 1,495,347 LXK 97 94 82 273 A $ 114.880 751,447 MARG 94 99 83 276 A $ 21.000 131,603 MCD 77 88 80 245 A $ 45.810 3,884,513 MCRL 96 89 94 279 A $ 50.630 155,110 MERQ 73 89 78 240 A $ 29.500 571,700 MHP 80 89 66 235 B $ 59.130 555,410 MMC 89 88 62 239 A $ 76.000 700,493 MNMD 98 92 78 268 A $ 93.500 133,400 MSFT 99 94 96 289 A $ 94.250 31,116,154 MSPG 77 98 99 274 B $ 112.250 983,503 MXIM 89 94 94 277 A $ 59.130 1,541,760 NDB 80 99 97 276 B $ 46.630 889,597 NEON 80 98 78 256 B $ 60.750 1,024,860 NOVL 77 95 93 265 B $ 24.880 7,953,686 NPCI 75 89 80 244 B $ 16.500 141,707 NSOL 84 99 98 281 A $ 108.000 3,508,476 NT 88 93 91 272 B $ 74.000 2,086,723 NTAP 98 97 72 267 A $ 58.630 953,653 OCLI 89 98 70 257 B $ 50.500 151,197 OMC 91 94 83 268 A $ 84.380 698,577 ORBK 90 90 89 269 A $ 49.500 94,440 OSI 98 85 83 266 B $ 30.380 417,787 OSSI 89 91 80 260 A $ 33.250 824,677 OSTE 73 95 78 246 A $ 33.500 198,748 PCLE 76 92 74 242 A $ 48.500 146,157 PEGS 80 96 83 259 B $ 42.500 160,487 PHCC 98 96 63 257 B $ 47.500 120,183 PKN 76 91 70 237 B $ 109.000 214,957 PLCE 99 97 93 289 A $ 28.000 293,960 PLCM 77 88 91 256 A $ 20.500 758,307 POS 88 94 83 265 A $ 93.000 137,987 POWI 72 96 86 254 B $ 31.000 231,950 PRGX 98 86 83 267 A $ 37.470 192,743 PROG 85 86 81 252 B $ 11.630 76,227 PSUN 93 90 93 276 A $ 37.250 535,443 PVN 98 97 90 285 A $ 119.000 782,953 QLGC 98 97 94 289 A $ 69.630 516,150 RFMD 80 99 91 270 A $ 53.250 762,360 RTRSY 75 91 83 249 A $ 93.380 195,287 SANM 97 91 86 274 A $ 62.880 890,317 SAPE 99 89 78 266 A $ 69.440 234,377 SBUX 96 89 80 265 A $ 32.380 2,044,473 SCH 94 99 97 290 A $ 126.000 2,539,087 SDLI 92 99 94 285 A $ 88.500 290,673 SLR 96 96 91 283 A $ 55.880 1,517,610 SNS 94 88 63 245 A $ 69.130 579,483 SONC 91 86 80 257 A $ 26.030 127,520 SORC 75 93 83 251 A $ 11.940 85,927 STNR 95 86 86 267 A $ 34.130 161,110 STT 83 88 62 233 A $ 89.130 422,280 SUNW 94 98 75 267 A $ 70.250 15,891,889 SWS 76 94 97 267 A $ 41.250 174,820 SYKE 99 90 83 272 A $ 30.000 298,840 T 83 86 96 265 B $ 85.500 9,467,092 TAGS 97 96 68 261 A $ 43.000 136,497 TAN 73 91 67 231 B $ 69.000 657,530 TCAT 85 91 95 271 A $ 44.750 240,530 TIF 90 95 92 277 A $ 80.750 275,510 TJX 93 91 93 277 B $ 35.750 1,219,550 TLAB 98 95 91 284 A $ 112.380 2,454,316 TMPW 88 97 83 268 A $ 85.440 549,830 TOM 97 87 68 252 A $ 70.750 358,680 TRK 87 94 86 267 B $ 39.250 153,357 TSFW 99 91 78 268 A $ 19.250 445,583 TTWO 74 88 85 247 A $ 10.380 210,773 TVGIA 96 96 88 280 A $ 37.780 205,120 UNPH 96 97 91 284 A $ 129.750 714,340 UTX 91 89 63 243 B $ 131.750 731,850 VISX 77 99 97 273 A $ 137.160 952,653 VOD 96 92 92 280 A $ 196.130 489,090 VRTS 99 94 78 271 A $ 79.500 657,583 VTSS 97 93 94 284 A $ 51.000 1,455,990 WAT 98 94 80 272 A $ 109.500 141,223 WCOM 82 94 96 272 B $ 90.060 11,300,326 WMT 87 93 87 267 B $ 102.750 3,825,784 WTSLA 91 88 93 272 A $ 37.500 114,423 XLNX 79 96 94 269 A $ 47.630 3,684,506 XOMD 97 91 61 249 B $ 36.130 96,660 XYLN 75 96 93 264 A $ 36.810 2,498,130 YHOO 84 99 99 282 A $ 207.000 7,963,577 ZQK 96 96 68 260 A $ 44.690 130,460 - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Fuhrmeister, Andrew" Subject: [CANSLIM] OSSI Date: 12 Apr 1999 10:53:52 -0500 I am mostly a lurker, but anyone have any thoughts on OSSI? Has been on Ron's list off and on. Seems to be forming a handle with volume drying up a little. Group strength is probably a little weak. Andrew Fuhrmeister - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Peter Newell" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] OSSI Date: 12 Apr 1999 12:45:17 -0700 If the volume picks up and it breaks out it looks good to me. Peter Newell -----Original Message----- >I am mostly a lurker, but anyone have any thoughts on OSSI? Has been on >Ron's list off and on. Seems to be forming a handle with volume drying up a >little. Group strength is probably a little weak. > >Andrew Fuhrmeister > >- > > - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: rolatzi Subject: [CANSLIM] MSPG Breakout Date: 12 Apr 1999 11:37:04 -0700 (PDT) MSPG is up big today (+8%) on high volume (@x so far). I'm a little nervous about jumping in because of volatility and because it has quite cleared the left rim of its cup at 125 which was a spike day (1/12/99 range 85 to 125 closed at 96) . It is presently at 123. Would you jump in now or wait for it to clear 125 or do you think it has gone up too fast and too far? Thanks, rolatzi _________________________________________________________ Do You Yahoo!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Peter Newell" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] MSPG Breakout Date: 12 Apr 1999 14:38:49 -0700 Actually it, IMHO, cleared the handle friday on high vol. Peter Newell -----Original Message----- >MSPG is up big today (+8%) on high volume (@x so far). I'm a >little nervous about jumping in because of volatility and >because it has quite cleared the left rim of its cup at 125 >which was a spike day (1/12/99 range 85 to 125 closed at 96) . >It is presently at 123. Would you jump in now or wait for it to >clear 125 or do you think it has gone up too fast and too far? >Thanks, >rolatzi > > >_________________________________________________________ >Do You Yahoo!? >Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com > > >- > > - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: rolatzi Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] MSPG Breakout Date: 12 Apr 1999 11:46:10 -0700 (PDT) I'm sorry, I had a typo in my message that makes it very confusing. It is missing a not and should read: --- rolatzi wrote: > MSPG is up big today (+8%) on high volume (@x so far). I'm a > little nervous about jumping in because of volatility and > because it has NOT quite cleared the left rim of its cup at 125 > which was a spike day (1/12/99 range 85 to 125 closed at 96) . > > It is presently at 123. Would you jump in now or wait for it > to > clear 125 or do you think it has gone up too fast and too far? > Thanks, > rolatzi > > > _________________________________________________________ > Do You Yahoo!? > Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com > > > - > > _________________________________________________________ Do You Yahoo!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Tim Fisher Subject: [CANSLIM] AEOSD Breakout Date: 12 Apr 1999 13:20:38 -0700 Wish I had the cash for some more of those yummy retailers! Was tempted to sell a weaker holding i.e. HH for AEOSD this AM but didn't have the time. Next time I look, thar she blows! Hope someone else got in before it popped! On 11:46 AM 4/12/99 , rolatzi Said: >I'm sorry, I had a typo in my message that makes it very >confusing. It is missing a not and should read: > >--- rolatzi wrote: >> MSPG is up big today (+8%) on high volume (@x so far). I'm a >> little nervous about jumping in because of volatility and >> because it has NOT quite cleared the left rim of its cup at >125 >> which was a spike day (1/12/99 range 85 to 125 closed at 96) . >> >> It is presently at 123. Would you jump in now or wait for it >> to >> clear 125 or do you think it has gone up too fast and too far? >> Thanks, >> rolatzi >> Tim Fisher Ore-Rock-On and Pacific Fishery Biologists WWW Sites Tim@OreRockOn.com WWW: http://OreRockOn.com See naked fish and rocks! - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Marc Laniado" Subject: [CANSLIM] Ossi Date: 12 Apr 1999 21:28:22 +0100 Hi fellow CANSLIMMERS OSSI is still in a secondary base and has to break out before it could be recommended! My portfolio has telecommunication stocks because these continue to be the group with the many new highs each week (ADCT, CMVT) I have NITE and I see these type of stocks continue to do well (incl NDB! see today). I sold NTAP and EMC today because of poor industry group RS MSPG did well today and has formidable fundamentals (of the internet kind with inverted cash flow better than AOL etc) Retail stocks continue well (incl ANF so thanks Tom for the advice about persevering with this. Tim, I still consider BEBE! - one for the future perhaps) It would be great to hear what's in other peoples portfolios All the best, Marc Marc E Laniado marclaniado@msn.com begin 666 Marc Elie Laniado.vcf M0D5'24XZ5D-!4D0-"DXZ3&%N:6%D;SM-87)C.T5L:64-"D9..DUA Subject: [CANSLIM] Fw: Approaching new highs and sponsorship! Date: 12 Apr 1999 21:29:45 +0100 I had this reply regarding sponsorship from DGO Marc E Laniado marclaniado@msn.com Tel/Fax: +44 171 731 1354 Mobile +44 973 344 439 -----Original Message----- >If you mean the O'Neil A-E fund ranking; that will be available later this >year. Thanks for your note. > >-----Original Message----- >From: Marc Laniado [mailto:marclaniado@msn.com] >Sent: Sunday, April 11, 1999 12:03 PM >To: Customer Service >Subject: Re: Approaching new highs and sponsorship! > > << File: Marc Elie Laniado.vcf >> Thank you for your prompt reply. >Why can't we have the sponsorship rating as well? It must be easily >available on the computer. Please pass it on! >Marc > >Marc E Laniado >marclaniado@msn.com >Tel/Fax: +44 171 731 1354 >Mobile +44 973 344 439 >-----Original Message----- >From: Customer Service >To: Marc Laniado >Date: 11 April 1999 17:55 >Subject: RE: Approaching new highs > > >>Hi Marc, >> >>Thank you for your recent email to Daily Graphs Online. >> >>We appreciate your feedback regarding the new report. I will be certain to >>forward your email to our development committee so that they can gauge the >>response to this recent addition. >> >>Please write back if you have other comments or need assistance of any >kind. >> >>Best regards, >>Dan >>Daily Graphs Online >> >>> -----Original Message----- >>> From: Marc Laniado [mailto:marclaniado@msn.com] >>> Sent: Sunday, April 11, 1999 6:49 AM >>> To: Customer Service >>> Subject: Approaching new highs >>> >>> >>> The stocks approaching new highs is very useful. I think this should >>> always >>> be available. Currently, DGO is still expensive compared to MS Investor >>> finder and other services around. It would be very helpful if this >>> distinguishing feature would be continued. >>> Marc >>> >>> Marc E Laniado >>> marclaniado@msn.com >>> >>> >>> >>> >>> >>> >>> >>> >> > > > > > > > begin 666 Marc Elie Laniado.vcf M0D5'24XZ5D-!4D0-"DXZ3&%N:6%D;SM-87)C.T5L:64-"D9..DUA Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] novice picks Date: 12 Apr 1999 19:11:22 -0800 Date sent: Mon, 12 Apr 1999 15:42:10 -0700 > I am venturing out ona limb here and have made my first three stock picks. > > Please give me feedback or your reactions to these three stocks...ntap,bxm, > and glc. Don't know the last two, but NTAP is a good one, formed a cup and handle and broke out a few days ago. Also, you can see some good volume patterns on that one, where you can see the volume dry up a bit in the handle, then spike up again when it broke out. - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: ladypi Subject: [CANSLIM] Re: DMI Date: 12 Apr 1999 18:33:24 -0700 Group: I've been trying to use various indicators for my timing into a stock, however, I find that the time period used varies the results. For instance, on IQC when I use the directional indicator (DMI) on a 60 day w/ 60 mins and then again on 60 day with 60 days I get two different answers. Can anyone tell me what the best time period to use on these kind of indicators and why? Thanks in advance,. Judy North -- Judy North e-mail: jnorth@ladypi.com FREE LANCE INVESTIGATIONS of Portland 12175 SW 2nd Ave. Beaverton, Oregon 97005 503-643-4274 (4API)(phone) 503-643-5474 (fax) *1-888-4ladypi* http://www.ladypi.com ICQ# 23278351 Oregon License No. 1998217 Located in the city of roses, Portland, Oregon. The Pacific Northwest source for information and investigation. On-line data resources, global contacts. Criminal/employment background checks; process serving; all around investigations - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Deepak Kapur Subject: [CANSLIM] NTBK Date: 12 Apr 1999 19:29:08 -0600 I envy those of you who are still holding NTBK. I had 200 shares, but got shaken out when the stock came all the way down to 63 after what had seemed like a good breakout. Was it last week or 10 days ago? Deepak - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] OSSI Date: 12 Apr 1999 23:50:49 -0400 Has a nice constructive base formed, low volatility despite the wild rides of some of the mkt. CS elements equally solid with RS 91 and EPS at 89. Main thing that would give me pause is the lack of solid sequential qtrly earnings and sales increases. Could be entering a period where year to year comparisons won't look so hot. I would also look carefully at earnings not growing much faster than sales, seems like there should be some efficiencies there resulting in earnings growing faster. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html -----Original Message----- I am mostly a lurker, but anyone have any thoughts on OSSI? Has been on Ron's list off and on. Seems to be forming a handle with volume drying up a little. Group strength is probably a little weak. Andrew Fuhrmeister - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] novice picks Date: 13 Apr 1999 00:01:09 -0400 Hi Ben, Did a quick look at DGO, as one member already mentioned, NTAP looks good. The only negative that quickly caught my eye is that sales appear to be growing faster than profits. On BXM, three of the past four qtrs showed year to year earnings declines, and sequentially it's got to go a long way for the March qtr about to be reported to avoid making that four of five qtrs. Not a CANSLIM stock, in my book. On GLC, CS elements look good, but already too far extended for me to consider it a buy right now. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html -----Original Message----- Hi all, I am venturing out ona limb here and have made my first three stock picks. Please give me feedback or your reactions to these three stocks...ntap,bxm, and glc. Thanks, Ben Heffer Please be aware that another return address for me is- mailto:bheffer@sopris.net - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: [CANSLIM] GICOF, R2000 Date: 13 Apr 1999 00:08:23 -0400 Nice breakout for Gilat Comms today on 2.5X ADV. And how about the sudden life in the small caps, up nearly 1.6%, only beaten by the ole Dow 30! Maybe there is life after death? Still, I long for the good ole days when we had some meaningful breadth in the mkt on these continuous record setting days. At least give us substantially more stocks going up than down, even if we can't have all that many new highs to lows. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Dave Rubin" Subject: [CANSLIM] ORCTF breakout Date: 13 Apr 1999 09:45:26 -0400 ORCTF broke out yesterday of a nice cup-handle. It's not exactly CANSLIM but it is a big growth company. Plus it is in one of the hottest sectors right now: DSL technology. This could just be the beginning of an AWRE-type run... - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: CA011667@aol.com Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] GICOF, R2000 Date: 13 Apr 1999 13:19:20 EDT It was said right here nearly two weeks ago.I said to watch for small caps to start performing.When the general public throws in the towel and starts to redeem small cap funds we have seen a bottom.Russell up again today.As far as GICOF, that broke out a few weeks ago at 11 3/8,this is just a continuation of the initial breakout.Unfortunately I did not pull the trigger, 80% gain down the tubes.Oh well. Chris. - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Craig Griffin Subject: [CANSLIM] SCH Climax Run? Date: 13 Apr 1999 20:32:49 -0400 Possible climax run on SCH. - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Deepak Kapur Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] SCH Climax Run? Date: 13 Apr 1999 19:02:50 -0600 Craig, What do you think out cmvt? Does its action today repesent a failed breakout? What about ntbk? What was the mistake I made in getting out at 65? Thanks, Deepak - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: IMF STAFF Subject: [CANSLIM] Cup and Handle Screening Online Date: 13 Apr 1999 18:03:46 -0700 It has just been released that StockTables.com will have a daily Cup & Handle Filter within the next month or so.. This feature will show the stocks thaty are breaking out of cup and handle patterns on a daily basis. You will also be able to look for 3 month cup and handle breakouts, 6 month C&H Breakouts, 1 YR C&H breakouts... and much more along with the traditional EPS and RELATIVE Strength Rankings on 10,000 stocks daily. The best part is that it is all FREE. http://www.stocktables.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Craig Griffin Subject: [CANSLIM] SCH Climax Run? Date: 13 Apr 1999 20:32:49 -0400 Possible climax run on SCH. - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: musicant@autobahn.org (Dan Musicant) Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] NTBK Date: 14 Apr 1999 01:38:33 GMT On Mon, 12 Apr 1999 19:29:08 -0600, you wrote: :I envy those of you who are still holding NTBK. I had 200 shares, :but got shaken out when the stock came all the way down to 63 after what :had seemed like a good breakout. Was it last week or 10 days ago? : : :Deepak Hi Deepak, I still have my 200 shares! However, though you may envy me I do not pity you (you will forgive me, please!). I'm sure you have more harrowing stories you could tell. I don't know if it will help you, but I think it has helped me: A number of years ago I heard it said that a person can reach a point in their life when they put envy behind them.=20 Yes, I was concerned when NTBK dipped to 63 that day about 9 trading days ago. However, the ensuing recovery was extremely bullish in my view, for the very reason that it indicated that anyone who paniced on this one was due for the very sufferings you now complain of, and this indication was very emphatic, as I'm sure you will testify. "He who feels it, knows it." - Bob Marley. The 7 point drop that day was a last 1/2 hour selloff. I didn't even know about it until later. The subsequent runup in the stock seems to confirm the sense of bullish indications I had when the dip was so soon erased. Of course, the news that new accounts at NTBK having surpassed the hopes of the management by a factor of 4 would seem to be the cause of the runup. I also think that the relatively decent earnings of this company compared to other Internet darlings is contributing massively. It is by far my greatest winner ever. Knock on wood.=20 Chalk it up to experience, Deepak. For the last two years, much of the time I felt as though I was watching one opportunity after another slip by. I began wondering what was preventing me from taking advantage of these opportunities, and hindsight is 20-20, as they say...especially in the stock market, naturally. Of course, I missed some losers by refraining sometimes, as well. I also missed out on a lot of profits by selling when things looked bad, just as you did. Good luck. Dan - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] GICOF, R2000 Date: 13 Apr 1999 21:52:01 -0400 I have to admit, Chris, as bearish as I've been on the mkt in general, and small caps in particular, today's move up over 1% (best of the indexes, I think) continues its strong move thru resistance, and does cause my heart to flutter. I may have to give up some more sleep time and start spending some time on charts again. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html -----Original Message----- It was said right here nearly two weeks ago.I said to watch for small caps to start performing.When the general public throws in the towel and starts to redeem small cap funds we have seen a bottom.Russell up again today.As far as GICOF, that broke out a few weeks ago at 11 3/8,this is just a continuation of the initial breakout.Unfortunately I did not pull the trigger, 80% gain down the tubes.Oh well. Chris. - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: [CANSLIM] Quote of the Day Date: 13 Apr 1999 21:57:54 -0400 Supposedly, Japanese life insurance cos (the five largest) claim they are going to be putting more money to work in domestic (Japanese) bonds and less in foreign (interpret US primarily) bonds. Those companies would need less foreign currency if they were buying only domestic bonds, which would increase demand for yen,dealers noted. ``With the life insurers telling us they're not going to be big foreign bond buyers, that precipitated a lot of selling in dollar/yen and in euro/yen,'' the investment bank dealer said. ``If (Japanese companies) are not going to invest overseas, what are they going to invest in, something yielding zero? I don't think so,'' said one currency dealer at a Japanese bank. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Craig Griffin Subject: [CANSLIM] NTBK and CMVT Date: 13 Apr 1999 22:02:05 -0400 Deepak, you wrote: >What do you think out cmvt? Does its action today repesent a failed breakout? >What about ntbk? What was the mistake I made in getting out at 65? Breakout for CMVT was at about 85. Not much volume on the breakout however and so somewhat suspect. 85 + 10% = 93 1/2, so you are chasing it if you bought it much beyond 90. A failed breakout would be a pullback below 85 and even then it could be a shakeout. NTBK broke out at about 62 7/8. So it was buyable up to about 69. I don't see how you could have gotten stopped out at 65 unless you chased it and bought higher than 69. 68 - 8% = 63 1/2, so even if you bought at 69, it would have needed to hit 63 1/2 to stop you out. It actually did close at 63 the third day following the breakout - which would have sent the 69er's packing. Another example of the importance of catching them within 5% of the pivot - or closer if possible. Tough luck in any case. It has been a good one. But there is good news - you chose correctly. You just did not buy correctly (apparently). I suggest you mark the pivot point as a horizontal line across the chart on each of the stocks above. Then draw a parallel line at the pivot + 10%. Then draw a dot at your buy point (date and price at which you bought). Draw another dot where you sold. Did you buy wrong or did you sell wrong? This is the question you must answer (sometimes the stock shakes you out anyway, but in this case we know that NTBK acted fine for all but those who bought at +10% or so). You could do the same on CMVT. See if the place you bought it is within the "rules". Also review the volume/price action on CMVT, both daily and weekly. My suspicion is that you are chasing them and buying after they are too extended. Another thing that will sometimes make one sell too easily on the pullback after a breakout is trying to carry too large a position. This makes for the "Oh Heck" response, where you say to yourself, I was just ahead 10% (or whatever) and now I am behind 5% - I better sell before it gets any worse. This is emotional decision making (as is chasing extended stocks). You have to leave your emotions out of investing. I have decided that O'Neil's idea of dividing the portfolio into only 4 or 5 stocks does not suit my psychological makeup. I do much better with more stocks and thus less risk in each one. Then it is easier to hold through a normal pullback (and maybe buy a little more). Of course, if you didn't read the pivot right, or you chased it beyond 5% or 10% max ... you need to fix that aspect of your trading regardless. Best Regards, Craig PS. Congratulations on NTBK Dan and nice post. Your remarks about "envy" are exactly to the core of the matter. This is an example of what can make one chase an extended stock to buy it at the wrong time. Deepak, Better to just look for the next opportunity after recognizing the reason you missed the current one. And remember, they all eventually form new bases, and if they have staying power, you will get another chance to buy them when they come out of that next base. - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] SCH Climax Run? Date: 13 Apr 1999 22:20:20 -0400 I don't think so, Craig. Ordinarily, I would agree with you, but the entire group has been strong for some time; Schwab's move from $100 to 150, tho fast and precipitous, is also supported by volume; industry upgrades; and continuing adaptation to the online community (I say this latter as a Schwab acct holder). Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html -----Original Message----- Possible climax run on SCH. - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: rolatzi Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] NTBK and CMVT Date: 13 Apr 1999 19:23:59 -0700 (PDT) Craig, I have gotten stopped out of stocks after they broke out. I do not want to turn a profit into a loss so after the stock is ahead 10% I will raise the stop loss to 10% less than high price. For example I bought CMVT at 85, placed a stop loss at 7% less than that and when it went up I began to raise raised the stop loss. At 99 I set a stop loss at 89 where it is now. It is possible that I will get stopped out but that the stock will then turn around and begin to move up again. Am I reading WON wrong? Am I moving my stop losses up too quickly? Should I give the stock more room to move? I often get stopped out with small profits but I am taking less losses than I used to. I would appreciate people's opinion on this matter. ciao, rolatzi --- Craig Griffin wrote: > Deepak, > > you wrote: > >What do you think out cmvt? Does its action today repesent a > failed breakout? > >What about ntbk? What was the mistake I made in getting out > at 65? > > Breakout for CMVT was at about 85. Not much volume on the > breakout however > and so somewhat suspect. 85 + 10% = 93 1/2, so you are > chasing it if you > bought it much beyond 90. A failed breakout would be a > pullback below 85 > and even then it could be a shakeout. > > NTBK broke out at about 62 7/8. So it was buyable up to about > 69. I don't > see how you could have gotten stopped out at 65 unless you > chased it and > bought higher than 69. 68 - 8% = 63 1/2, so even if you > bought at 69, it > would have needed to hit 63 1/2 to stop you out. It actually > did close at > 63 the third day following the breakout - which would have > sent the 69er's > packing. Another example of the importance of catching them > within 5% of > the pivot - or closer if possible. Tough luck in any case. > It has been a > good one. But there is good news - you chose correctly. > > You just did not buy correctly (apparently). I suggest you > mark the pivot > point as a horizontal line across the chart on each of the > stocks above. > Then draw a parallel line at the pivot + 10%. Then draw a dot > at your buy > point (date and price at which you bought). Draw another dot > where you > sold. Did you buy wrong or did you sell wrong? This is the > question you > must answer (sometimes the stock shakes you out anyway, but in > this case we > know that NTBK acted fine for all but those who bought at +10% > or so). > > You could do the same on CMVT. See if the place you bought it > is within > the "rules". Also review the volume/price action on CMVT, > both daily and > weekly. > > My suspicion is that you are chasing them and buying after > they are too > extended. Another thing that will sometimes make one sell too > easily on > the pullback after a breakout is trying to carry too large a > position. > This makes for the "Oh Heck" response, where you say to > yourself, I was > just ahead 10% (or whatever) and now I am behind 5% - I better > sell before > it gets any worse. This is emotional decision making (as is > chasing > extended stocks). You have to leave your emotions out of > investing. I > have decided that O'Neil's idea of dividing the portfolio into > only 4 or 5 > stocks does not suit my psychological makeup. I do much > better with more > stocks and thus less risk in each one. Then it is easier to > hold through a > normal pullback (and maybe buy a little more). Of course, if > you didn't > read the pivot right, or you chased it beyond 5% or 10% max > ... you need to > fix that aspect of your trading regardless. > > Best Regards, > Craig > > PS. Congratulations on NTBK Dan and nice post. Your remarks > about "envy" > are exactly to the core of the matter. This is an example of > what can make > one chase an extended stock to buy it at the wrong time. > > Deepak, Better to just look for the next opportunity after > recognizing the > reason you missed the current one. And remember, they all > eventually form > new bases, and if they have staying power, you will get > another chance to > buy them when they come out of that next base. > > - > > _________________________________________________________ Do You Yahoo!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Dave Cameron Subject: [CANSLIM] "M" Date: 13 Apr 1999 21:16:55 -0500 Interesting.... Tom Worley posts his first positive comment about "M" since I've been back on the list. To me, this was the worst day since I've been back on the list. Based on the stocks on my watch list, I'd have concluded that today (Tuesday the 13th) was a down day. As an example, two of my main stocks (HHS, ADCT) had significant adverse moves today. HHS is very close to my stop. ADCT doesn't have much maneuvering room either. Goes to show you, everyone views the market differently. I'd be surprised if there was a lot of breadth today. Dave Cameron dfcameron@ameritech.net - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] SCH Climax Run? Date: 13 Apr 1999 22:30:04 -0400 Deepak, I'd be interested in your reasons for feeling compelled to sell NTBK. Looking at the chart it's hard to see why you may have been pressured into dumping it, but then I wasn't there at the time. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html -----Original Message----- Craig, What do you think out cmvt? Does its action today repesent a failed breakout? What about ntbk? What was the mistake I made in getting out at 65? Thanks, Deepak - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Deepak Kapur Subject: [CANSLIM] NTBK Date: 13 Apr 1999 20:48:27 -0600 Tom, As Craig guessed correctly, I bought the stock at 72, and I shot up in a couple of days or so, but then went down to 63. That is when I got stopped out. Craig, thanks for your detailed comments. Much appreciated. Deepak - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] "M" Date: 13 Apr 1999 22:48:11 -0400 Hi Dave, I'm just trying to keep everyone so confused that I can find a way to make some money in this weird market without having to succumb to the internet fever! It's been difficult for me to find much positives in the mkt lately, other than some of the economics reports. Even my watch list of small caps, now pared down to only 18 from a high a month or so ago of over 30, has been pretty dismal lately. Even the last several days most were down, but at least one or two were still popping 15 to 25% each day. Not sure frankly what's going on, but starting to make me wonder if there is a sector rotation finally happening back into the small caps as concerns focus on the earnings progress of the big caps, and internet stocks in particular. On a slightly more serious note, I would be interested in locating a free site that could give me the up/down volume, new highs and lows, and stocks up/down strictly for the Russell 2000. So far can't get this kind of anal detail at DGO. I'd like to examine this unexpected (at least to old fuddy duddy me) strength in the small caps in more detail. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html -----Original Message----- Interesting.... Tom Worley posts his first positive comment about "M" since I've been back on the list. To me, this was the worst day since I've been back on the list. Based on the stocks on my watch list, I'd have concluded that today (Tuesday the 13th) was a down day. As an example, two of my main stocks (HHS, ADCT) had significant adverse moves today. HHS is very close to my stop. ADCT doesn't have much maneuvering room either. Goes to show you, everyone views the market differently. I'd be surprised if there was a lot of breadth today. Dave Cameron dfcameron@ameritech.net - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] NTBK Date: 13 Apr 1999 23:29:21 -0400 Deepak, Then sounds like Craig hit the nail right on the head! The problem lies in the entry point more so than the hold or exit point rationale. A correct entry would have left you bruised and battered possibly, uncomfortable certainly, on the quick correction, but nonetheless still long the stock as it began a massive and impressive run. Once that run started, the bloody pummeling would have quickly faded into a distant memory. Maybe even made you a hero in your own eyes, at least, if not in that of any significant other. It's important to remember that there's a train leaving the station every few minutes. If you miss the one you've been watching for days, weeks, even months, then yes, it's frustrating after investing all that time and research. But jumping on too late can be downright costly! If you're still going to chase that stock and jump on way late on a breakout, then at least remember that you've already violated a major rule, and must tighten your sell point sharply to compensate. You can no longer afford an 8 to 15% sell stop level. If the breakout even threatens to fail at that point, you must either exit, or be willing to ride out a sharp "paper" loss. You can't continue to apply CANSLIM rules on exiting, which were predicated upon a correct entry. At that point you have stopped being a CANSLIM investor, and become a "momentum" investor, and must follow the rules for that accordingly. If you luck out, and the stock continues upward and eventually creates further CANSLIM situations, there is always time then to revert back to being a CANSLIMer. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html -----Original Message----- Tom, As Craig guessed correctly, I bought the stock at 72, and I shot up in a couple of days or so, but then went down to 63. That is when I got stopped out. Craig, thanks for your detailed comments. Much appreciated. Deepak - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Patrick Wahl" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] "M" Date: 13 Apr 1999 21:40:12 -0800 Date sent: Tue, 13 Apr 1999 21:16:55 -0500 > Interesting.... Tom Worley posts his first positive comment > about "M" since I've been back on the list. To me, this > was the worst day since I've been back on the list. Based > on the stocks on my watch list, I'd have concluded that > today (Tuesday the 13th) was a down day. As an example, two On the other hand, you can find some positives - the Russell 2000 moved up over 1%, and is getting into at least intermediate new high territory, that is, highest its been for a few months. Also, both NASDAQ and NYSE had more advances than decline, more new highs than new low. This might be somewhat significant, since usually even on up days the adv/decline line has been negative, and now on a down day it is still positive. That tends to be how the market acts when strong, but of course one day doesn't mean too much. - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Ssingh@aol.com Subject: [CANSLIM] Russell 2000, was "M" Date: 14 Apr 1999 00:45:38 EDT I know Tom and several on the list are strong believers of Russell 2000. My question is what actually is Russell 2000. It is supposed to be 2000 companies of small cap stocks. If you look at some of the members like CMGI, EGRP etc. you thing these will qualify what small cap is? Regards Surindra In a message dated 4/13/99 11:40:18 PM Eastern Daylight Time, pwahl@postoffice.worldnet.att.net writes: << Russell 2000 moved up over 1%, and is getting into at least intermediate new high territory, that is, highest its been for a few months. >> - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Steve" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Russell 2000, was "M" Date: 13 Apr 1999 22:15:34 -0700 I don't know. My only small cap fund, BARAX, did nothing in 1998. It is up 23.5% in the LAST THREE WEEKS! Steve Grier (lurker) cgjd@ix.netcom.com ----- Original Message ----- Sent: Tuesday, April 13, 1999 9:45 PM I know Tom and several on the list are strong believers of Russell 2000. My question is what actually is Russell 2000. It is supposed to be 2000 companies of small cap stocks. If you look at some of the members like CMGI, EGRP etc. you thing these will qualify what small cap is? Regards Surindra In a message dated 4/13/99 11:40:18 PM Eastern Daylight Time, pwahl@postoffice.worldnet.att.net writes: << Russell 2000 moved up over 1%, and is getting into at least intermediate new high territory, that is, highest its been for a few months. >> - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: rolatzi Subject: [CANSLIM] help with execution problem Date: 13 Apr 1999 18:04:11 -0700 (PDT) This is not a canslim question. This morning at 9:31, I place a buy order for 550 shares of PLT stop limit 64 1/8. The stock had closed at 63 1/8 the previous day and I was looking for a fractal buy and a piercing of the 50dMA as a way to initiate a buy from the bottom of a potential cup. In any case the stock traded up during the morning and around 10:30 am passed 64 with what looks like 2500 shares passing and then traded up and down between 64 1/4 and 65 and finally in the afternoon closed at 66 1/4. My trade never got filled. What do they owe me in the way of a filled order? What rights do I have. I called them (Fidelity) and after being on hold they said they would look into it and get back to me but no one contacted me yet as of 9:00 pm. Thanks for you help. I don't want to give up that 1000 dollar profit. Ciao, rolatzi _________________________________________________________ Do You Yahoo!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Ben Heffer Subject: [CANSLIM] hello Date: 13 Apr 1999 19:09:36 -0600 Hi Tom, Thanks for looking at GLC and said it was too extened for you to consider. What is the recommended place at which you purchase when it first starts the rise? Also, how do you make picks on the new companies with little track record? Some of the folks here are recommending relatively new issues with only a year or two of performance. Thanks, Ben 963-2428 home 945-9183 work Cyber Consultants-Training, Installations, Home Page Design mailto:bheffer@sopris.net http://mt.sopris.net/bheffer/gses/gses.html - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Russell 2000, was "M" Date: 14 Apr 1999 07:45:41 -0400 While the terms small cap and Russell 2000 are often used as if they are the same, in truth they are not, and definitions have been changing. I can remember when a small cap was loosely defined as under 50 million mkt cap. Now I see the same term used to refer to stocks with several hundred million mkt cap. The stocks in the Russell 2000 are selected based strictly on size, but size can change considerably during the year. If they grow or shrink too much, they are dropped from the list. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html -----Original Message----- I know Tom and several on the list are strong believers of Russell 2000. My question is what actually is Russell 2000. It is supposed to be 2000 companies of small cap stocks. If you look at some of the members like CMGI, EGRP etc. you thing these will qualify what small cap is? Regards Surindra In a message dated 4/13/99 11:40:18 PM Eastern Daylight Time, pwahl@postoffice.worldnet.att.net writes: << Russell 2000 moved up over 1%, and is getting into at least intermediate new high territory, that is, highest its been for a few months. >> - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: [CANSLIM] Breakouts Date: 14 Apr 1999 07:55:45 -0400 SORC broke out nicely yesterday on heavy volume from a decent base, tho short (only two weeks old). You could argue it was the handle of a shallow cup. But if you want to see how quickly breakouts can be reversed on volume, look at yesterday's performance on AULT. This is a really wierd and unpredictable mkt. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Fuhrmeister, Andrew" Subject: [CANSLIM] NOVL Date: 14 Apr 1999 08:46:10 -0500 NOVL really intrigues me. It is showing some good canslim criteria. I am not sure whether you can say it is in the handle stage looking to breakout but any thoughts on that? Also, I know that MSFT is trying to take away their networking foothold but NOVL newest product or savior seems to be something called digitalme(www.digitalme.com). I believe this in the beta stage right now. Anyone familiar with this technology, what are its merits and future markets and can this product lead NOVL to any growth? Or will MSFT take away its networking market share leaving NOVL with no room for future growth? Andrew Fuhrmeister - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Craig Griffin Subject: [CANSLIM] Trailing Stops and SCH Date: 14 Apr 1999 10:00:33 -0400 Rolatzi, You wrote: >I have gotten stopped out of stocks after they broke out. I do >not want to turn a profit into a loss so after the stock is >ahead 10% I will raise the stop loss to 10% less than high >price. For example I bought CMVT at 85, placed a stop loss at >7% less than that and when it went up I began to raise raised >the stop loss. At 99 I set a stop loss at 89 where it is now. >It is possible that I will get stopped out but that the stock >will then turn around and begin to move up again. Am I reading >WON wrong? Am I moving my stop losses up too quickly? Should I >give the stock more room to move? I often get stopped out with >small profits but I am taking less losses than I used to. I >would appreciate people's opinion on this matter. You should only move your stop loss one time per WON. First of course, you set your stop at 7 or 8% from your buy point. Then, once you are ahead 15% or so, you move your stop to your buy point in order to not let the 15% gain turn into a loss. If I remember correctly, this is the classic rule per WON. After this, then what does one do? Use the selling "pointers" in HTMMIS (see Chapter 10, especially the 36 rules enumerated under "Other Prime Selling Pointers".) Basicly, after you are ahead 15%+, you need to give a stock room to breath. Trace the course on a chart of any big winner. For example YHOO or DELL or CMGI. Depending on the stock, you will see variations of 10-40% frequently on the way up. This can be hard to sit through, yes. But to get the really big gains on a winning stock like NTBK you have to sit through some stuff. Once ahead 40%, would you want to be stopped out because it retraced 20% before advancing another 100%. With a 10 or 15% trailing stop, you will never hold onto the big winners for the 9 months to 3 years it takes for a 5 or 10 bagger to develop. At some point NTBK will form a new base, for example. It may do it somewhat violently (who could deny that the rise has been violent?). If it pulls back 40% from here, but does it without violating 2 or 3 of the selling principles, it may still be worthwhile to hold it through the base. If you have a long term objective - NTBK could still double from here in the next year or two. These are all big ifs - yes. This is a very tough part of the ball game - when to hold a big winner (defined as a 25%+ gain). But this much is guaranteed: since the average stock retraces at least 20% on several occassions on its way to a 100% gain, you will have very few 100% gains with a 15% trailing stop. Learn to apply the selling principles in WON instead. Sorry for the disorganized rambling above - no time to make it read well right now. Bottom line - if you are looking for lots of short term gains, what you are doing will work but is not per WON. If you want some long term winners, you will need to modify your tactics to give them more room to breath. The selling principles are nebulous. They are subject to much interpretation. They are not hard and fast "rules". Witness SCH - it sure looks like the top of a climax run to me with an exhaustion gap at the top. Tom likes the volume. I say this volume is indicative of the last bearish holdouts on the stock throwing in the towel and jumping in. Either way one has to make up one's own mind and develop judgement in these matters. A psychological trick is to sell half at a suspected selling point like this and intend to hold the rest through a 3 month, 35% base, in case one occurs. This can make it easier to sit through a base if one develops and you don't tend to get down on yourself if the stock continues to rise. Best Regards, Craig PS. Re: SCH - It is climactic activity IMO. Sometimes a stock languishes for months of basing after a move like this AT THE END OF A LONG ADVANCE. Othertimes they just retrace 20% more or less and move on up. Years back a stock named Iomega had several climactic bursts before finally burning out. But MOST of the time, one climax is enough to generate a long rest. OTOH, NTBK looks like a buying frenzy based on News and a recognition that they may be to banking what AMZN is trying to be to retailing. Thus a quick re-evaluation of the value of the stock's growth prospects. It's activity also looks climactic with huge volume and a gap up yesterday. But it is not climactic at the end of a long run in the way that SCH's is. PPS. FWIW, I look quickly at quotes and note that both stocks are up today with 15 mins into trading. - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Tim Fisher Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Russell 2000, was "M" Date: 14 Apr 1999 09:02:05 -0700 The RUT is the 2000 stocks following the 1000 biggest stocks, by capitilazation. It's more of a small-mid cap index. I think the Wilshire 2000 is the actual 2000 smallest cap stocks larger than the micro-caps, and no I don't know how that is defined. At 12:45 AM 4/14/99 -0400, you wrote: >I know Tom and several on the list are strong believers of Russell 2000. My >question is what actually is Russell 2000. It is supposed to be 2000 >companies of small cap stocks. If you look at some of the members like CMGI, >EGRP etc. you thing these will qualify what small cap is? > >Regards > >Surindra > > > >In a message dated 4/13/99 11:40:18 PM Eastern Daylight Time, >pwahl@postoffice.worldnet.att.net writes: > ><< Russell 2000 > moved up over 1%, and is getting into at least intermediate new > high territory, that is, highest its been for a few months. >> > > >- > Tim Fisher, 1995 President, Pacific Fishery Biologists Ore-ROCK-On Rockhounding Web Site PFB Information mailto:tim@OreRockOn.com WWW http://OreRockOn.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: TM Subject: [CANSLIM] NonCS, Tom, Microcapsite Date: 14 Apr 1999 11:58:21 -0700 (PDT) Came across this in my travels. http://www.microcap1000.com/ TM --- Tom Worley wrote: > While the terms small cap and Russell 2000 are often used as > if they are the same, in truth they are not, and definitions > have been changing. I can remember when a small cap was > loosely defined as under 50 million mkt cap. Now I see the > same term used to refer to stocks with several hundred > million mkt cap. > > The stocks in the Russell 2000 are selected based strictly > on size, but size can change considerably during the year. > If they grow or shrink too much, they are dropped from the > list. > > Tom Worley > stkguru@netside.net > chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 > get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html > > > -----Original Message----- > From: Ssingh@aol.com > To: canslim@lists.xmission.com > Date: Wednesday, April 14, 1999 12:51 AM > Subject: [CANSLIM] Russell 2000, was "M" > > > I know Tom and several on the list are strong believers of > Russell 2000. My > question is what actually is Russell 2000. It is supposed to > be 2000 > companies of small cap stocks. If you look at some of the > members like CMGI, > EGRP etc. you thing these will qualify what small cap is? > > Regards > > Surindra > > > > In a message dated 4/13/99 11:40:18 PM Eastern Daylight > Time, > pwahl@postoffice.worldnet.att.net writes: > > << Russell 2000 > moved up over 1%, and is getting into at least intermediate > new > high territory, that is, highest its been for a few months. > >> > > > - > > > > - > > _________________________________________________________ Do You Yahoo!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Marc Laniado" Subject: [CANSLIM] Date: Wed, 14 Apr 1999 22:03:15 +0100 Date: 14 Apr 1999 15:07:12 -0600 Do we reckon the brokerages etc have ended the climax run? Anyone watching qualcom (QCOM) - broke out and fell down a bit on lowish vol? I had thought this might be a High tight flag. Marc Marc E Laniado marclaniado@msn.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Ben Heffer Subject: [CANSLIM] SCAI Date: 14 Apr 1999 17:39:16 -0600 What do you make of what happened to SCAI today? Is this a start of a cup? Thaks, Ben 963-2428 home 945-9183 work Cyber Consultants-Training, Installations, Home Page Design mailto:bheffer@sopris.net http://mt.sopris.net/bheffer/gses/gses.html - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Ben Heffer Subject: [CANSLIM] scai Date: 14 Apr 1999 17:51:36 -0600 When this sort of thing happens, does it follow through with a cup and handle? It seems to be very highly rated by analysts and is #2 in its industry. Ben Net banking product propels Sanchez Shares scream in buying frenzy; volume 40 times average By Brenon Daly, CBS MarketWatch Last Update: 4:11 PM ET Apr 13, 1999 Movers & Shakers Market Snapshot MALVERN, Pa. (CBS.MW) -- Shares of Sanchez Computer Associates more than doubled, up 48 to 79 7/8, on volume 40 times average Tuesday after the company showed its electronic banking software at a trade show. The company (SCAI: news, msgs) makes software for financial service firms, and also has a division to handle transactions on an outsourced basis. Charles Robins, head of technology research for Pennsylvania Merchant Group, said the company is benefiting from displaying its product the BAI Internet Banking Conference in Atlanta. The trade show marked first time the company demonstrated its e-Profile service, which it launched in February. E-Profile allows banks to turn over their Net banking operations to Sanchez. The service center for e-Profile is set to open at the end of the month. That "certainly sets the stage" for Sanchez to sign up financial institutions in May, said Kathy Knaub, the communications manager for the Malvern, Pa.-based company. Knaub added that Sanchez is looking to ink deals with software companies to bolster its e-banking offering. Online banking has taken off as customers look for the convenience of round-the-clock banking. Financial institutions like the prospect of letting customers bank online, as it is less expensive then face-to-face transaction. Other makers of electronic banking software also rose. Security First Technologies (SONE: news, msgs) jumped 19 to 131, and has now doubled over the past month. Edify (EDFY: news, msgs) jumped 8 1/16, or 208 percent, to 11 15/16. Security One has a market capitalization of $1.4 billion, which is twice the market capitalization of Sanchez. 963-2428 home 945-9183 work Cyber Consultants-Training, Installations, Home Page Design mailto:bheffer@sopris.net http://mt.sopris.net/bheffer/gses/gses.html - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Date: Wed, 14 Apr 1999 22:03:15 +0100 Date: 14 Apr 1999 22:16:07 -0400 Marc, Looks like you are asking two unrelated questions on the brokerages and QCOM. Some quick thoughts - the brokerages are only now starting to report earnings, and so far they are not only strong but well above expectations, take JPM as just one example today, nearly doubled expectations, contributioning nearly a third to the Dow 20 gains at its highs. QCOM built a very nice and lengthy base at 50 leading up to the end of last year. Then in a three month period it moved from the 50 level to around 85 in a smooth and orderly fashion. Then, over the last three weeks or so, it screamed from around 85 to about 175. I think it's reasonable after the latest move that there will be profit taking, increased volatility, etc. One down day, regardless of volume, does not set a trend. I would suggest backing off a tad and taking a closer look at a picture with a longer term time horizon. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html -----Original Message----- Do we reckon the brokerages etc have ended the climax run? Anyone watching qualcom (QCOM) - broke out and fell down a bit on lowish vol? I had thought this might be a High tight flag. Marc Marc E Laniado marclaniado@msn.com - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: [CANSLIM] Flotsam and Jetsam (or misc random thoughts) Date: 14 Apr 1999 22:56:52 -0400 OK, my nautical side shows. Been giving some thought to why the R2000 would chose now to perform so well. One reason possible is that it contains a higher percentage of financials, and a lower percentage of tech stocks, than does the Naz. And techs have been hurting the Naz lately, while financials continue to outperform. I'm probably the only fool still holding TMBS, but I liked it fundies (fundamentals, sorry, I tend to think and write in shorthand too much) when I bot it and continue to like them, esp after today's earnings report after the close: Timberline Software (TMBS) TIMBERLINE SOFTWARE reported 1Q EPS of $0.23 vs $0.12 in the prior year period, on revenues of $13.3 mln vs $9.38 mln in 1998. Analysts' mean estimates were $0.15, according to First Call. (Reuters 05:22 PM ET 04/14/99) For the full text story. The Russell 2000 (R2000) did OK today, it's third day in a row, approaching resistance just over 420 before backing away. Finished with a fractional gain, still better than Naz, down 3%. And the Dow 30 demonstrated its thin breadth with most of its gains coming from JP Morgan's great earnings (another financial). Worth noting that Naz traded over 1.4 billion shares today, I think that may be a new record volume. Not a good sign on such a down day, but the techs, esp the internuts, are so volatile. NTBK was a good example, down around 25% and trading virtually its entire issue. Even assuming the typical double counting of volume found on Nasdaq stocks, it still traded nearly its entire float. Starting to see some gradual upturns in RS on some of the major indexes, tho not as pronounced as already occurring on the R2000. But how about that move on the Trans index today, up over 4%?? Sentiment seems too excessively optimistic on Japan and its economy lately. Granted, a proposed 25% cut across the board in taxes would boost the economy and address one of the issues, but will it pass? And where will the govt collect the lost revenues? Haven't seen too many govts lately willing to truly cut back and budget. Japan can't cut interest rates any further to stimulate economic activity, they are already practically at zero, unless they want to pay people to borrow. Interesting concept, hey, if you are willing to open a new McDonald's franchise, we will loan you the money for all the capital expenses, plus pay you half a point on the amount borrowed, then cut the taxes on the profits you expect to make. Only thing is, the banking industry is in seriously deep doo doo there, and how are they to show a profit like this without creative bookkeeping, which has been part of the problem for several decades? I think there is still some chance of another round of rate cuts in Europe this year, and the likelihood of a rate hike in USA has further diminished to near zero, at least for 1999. Oil may finally have peaked, as well as the precious metals at about the same time. Other commodities appear to be tame. I'm still looking for a site where I can examine the R2000 basics, e.g. up/down volume, new highs/lows, etc in anal detail. Gotta find some time, however. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "mdor" Subject: [CANSLIM] Is "M" Date: 14 Apr 1999 22:04:04 -0500 I have been viewing my indexes (DJIA, SP500, NASDAQ, and Russell 2000) and am really confused about what I am seeing. It is up up and away for DJIA and Russell 2000 and the bottom is beginning to fall out on the SP500 and NASDAQ. I use a new indicator (Directional Movement Index) of which is not telling me anything about taking a short position on the market as of yet. But the NASDAQ is getting close to a short position. This could be an indication that the technology stocks have reached their peak and are going out of favor. Only tomorrow will tell a different story if we can rebound in the down markets and continue to show strength in the Blue Chips and small caps. If the indication continues tomorrow in the NASDAQ, then I will let you know if the index is going into a short position. What I am worried about is that the down markets will bleed into the strengthening markets and we could probably see a correction on the horizon. Hope this doesn't happen. This is only my two cents worth. I will go to bed now and dream for less confusion tomorrow. Michael Doroshenko - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Is "M" Date: 14 Apr 1999 23:12:33 -0400 Michael, I chose to follow WON's advice, as well as that of many other wise voices, and not short unless the mkt is in a bearish tread. For me, that hasn't been established. Granted a 15 or 20 % correction could be just around the corner, certainly mkt breadth is non existent. But shorting right now, or even looking for shorting opportunities, IMHO, is just fighting the tape. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html -----Original Message----- I have been viewing my indexes (DJIA, SP500, NASDAQ, and Russell 2000) and am really confused about what I am seeing. It is up up and away for DJIA and Russell 2000 and the bottom is beginning to fall out on the SP500 and NASDAQ. I use a new indicator (Directional Movement Index) of which is not telling me anything about taking a short position on the market as of yet. But the NASDAQ is getting close to a short position. This could be an indication that the technology stocks have reached their peak and are going out of favor. Only tomorrow will tell a different story if we can rebound in the down markets and continue to show strength in the Blue Chips and small caps. If the indication continues tomorrow in the NASDAQ, then I will let you know if the index is going into a short position. What I am worried about is that the down markets will bleed into the strengthening markets and we could probably see a correction on the horizon. Hope this doesn't happen. This is only my two cents worth. I will go to bed now and dream for less confusion tomorrow. Michael Doroshenko - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Dan Cash Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Flotsam and Jetsam (or misc random thoughts) Date: 14 Apr 1999 20:18:06 -0700 Hello Tom, I haven't looked at the construction of the Russell 2000. If, though, the info in the next paragraph is correct, it might hold some of the reasons to the explosion of the index. And if so, how would it effect your evaluation? ------------- ...some previously small cap stocks are now the leaders and are no longer small caps.the largest stocks in the RUT are now CMGI @ $15bln, XCIT @$9bln,EGRP @14bln, MFNX @9bln, AMTD @ $10bln, RNWK @ $8bln. The RUT is a market cap weighted index which means the larger the market cap the more influence a company has on the actual index. With these previous "small cap" stocks doubling in value every week it is no wonder the RUT is exploding... Dan ------------- Tom Worley wrote: > OK, my nautical side shows. Been giving some thought to why > the R2000 would chose now to perform so well. One reason > possible is that it contains a higher percentage of > financials, and a lower percentage of tech stocks, than does > the Naz. And techs have been hurting the Naz lately, while > financials continue to outperform. > > I'm probably the only fool still holding TMBS, but I liked > it fundies (fundamentals, sorry, I tend to think and write > in shorthand too much) when I bot it and continue to like > them, esp after today's earnings report after the close: > Timberline Software (TMBS) > > TIMBERLINE SOFTWARE reported 1Q EPS of $0.23 vs $0.12 in the > prior year period, on revenues of $13.3 mln vs $9.38 mln in > 1998. Analysts' mean estimates were $0.15, according to > First Call. (Reuters 05:22 PM ET 04/14/99) For the full text > story. > > The Russell 2000 (R2000) did OK today, it's third day in a > row, approaching resistance just over 420 before backing > away. Finished with a fractional gain, still better than > Naz, down 3%. And the Dow 30 demonstrated its thin breadth > with most of its gains coming from JP Morgan's great > earnings (another financial). > > Worth noting that Naz traded over 1.4 billion shares today, > I think that may be a new record volume. Not a good sign on > such a down day, but the techs, esp the internuts, are so > volatile. NTBK was a good example, down around 25% and > trading virtually its entire issue. Even assuming the > typical double counting of volume found on Nasdaq stocks, it > still traded nearly its entire float. > > Starting to see some gradual upturns in RS on some of the > major indexes, tho not as pronounced as already occurring on > the R2000. But how about that move on the Trans index today, > up over 4%?? > > Sentiment seems too excessively optimistic on Japan and its > economy lately. Granted, a proposed 25% cut across the board > in taxes would boost the economy and address one of the > issues, but will it pass? And where will the govt collect > the lost revenues? Haven't seen too many govts lately > willing to truly cut back and budget. Japan can't cut > interest rates any further to stimulate economic activity, > they are already practically at zero, unless they want to > pay people to borrow. Interesting concept, hey, if you are > willing to open a new McDonald's franchise, we will loan you > the money for all the capital expenses, plus pay you half a > point on the amount borrowed, then cut the taxes on the > profits you expect to make. Only thing is, the banking > industry is in seriously deep doo doo there, and how are > they to show a profit like this without creative > bookkeeping, which has been part of the problem for several > decades? > > I think there is still some chance of another round of rate > cuts in Europe this year, and the likelihood of a rate hike > in USA has further diminished to near zero, at least for > 1999. Oil may finally have peaked, as well as the precious > metals at about the same time. Other commodities appear to > be tame. > > I'm still looking for a site where I can examine the R2000 > basics, e.g. up/down volume, new highs/lows, etc in anal > detail. Gotta find some time, however. > > Tom Worley > stkguru@netside.net > chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 > get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html > > - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Flotsam and Jetsam (or misc random thoughts) Date: 14 Apr 1999 23:39:31 -0400 Hi Dan, Over the past three days (which is the period I have noticed the R2000 coming to life a little), the stocks you have mentioned have changed market cap as follows: CMGI - minus $2.3 billion XCIT - minus 1.3 bil EGRP - plus 1.9 bil MFNX - plus 0.3 bil AMTD - minus 1.5 bil RNWK - minus 0.5 bil So, on balance, appears that these now bigger cap stocks have not contributed to the move I am noticing. That's why I am looking for a site that would allow me to examine the breadth in more detail. These stocks may have certainly offset some of the other depreciations in the R2000 mkt cap worths over the prior several weeks or months. But they have not contributed to the move in the past several days. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html -----Original Message----- thoughts) Hello Tom, I haven't looked at the construction of the Russell 2000. If, though, the info in the next paragraph is correct, it might hold some of the reasons to the explosion of the index. And if so, how would it effect your evaluation? ------------- ...some previously small cap stocks are now the leaders and are no longer small caps.the largest stocks in the RUT are now CMGI @ $15bln, XCIT @$9bln,EGRP @14bln, MFNX @9bln, AMTD @ $10bln, RNWK @ $8bln. The RUT is a market cap weighted index which means the larger the market cap the more influence a company has on the actual index. With these previous "small cap" stocks doubling in value every week it is no wonder the RUT is exploding... Dan ------------- Tom Worley wrote: > OK, my nautical side shows. Been giving some thought to why > the R2000 would chose now to perform so well. One reason > possible is that it contains a higher percentage of > financials, and a lower percentage of tech stocks, than does > the Naz. And techs have been hurting the Naz lately, while > financials continue to outperform. > > I'm probably the only fool still holding TMBS, but I liked > it fundies (fundamentals, sorry, I tend to think and write > in shorthand too much) when I bot it and continue to like > them, esp after today's earnings report after the close: > Timberline Software (TMBS) > > TIMBERLINE SOFTWARE reported 1Q EPS of $0.23 vs $0.12 in the > prior year period, on revenues of $13.3 mln vs $9.38 mln in > 1998. Analysts' mean estimates were $0.15, according to > First Call. (Reuters 05:22 PM ET 04/14/99) For the full text > story. > > The Russell 2000 (R2000) did OK today, it's third day in a > row, approaching resistance just over 420 before backing > away. Finished with a fractional gain, still better than > Naz, down 3%. And the Dow 30 demonstrated its thin breadth > with most of its gains coming from JP Morgan's great > earnings (another financial). > > Worth noting that Naz traded over 1.4 billion shares today, > I think that may be a new record volume. Not a good sign on > such a down day, but the techs, esp the internuts, are so > volatile. NTBK was a good example, down around 25% and > trading virtually its entire issue. Even assuming the > typical double counting of volume found on Nasdaq stocks, it > still traded nearly its entire float. > > Starting to see some gradual upturns in RS on some of the > major indexes, tho not as pronounced as already occurring on > the R2000. But how about that move on the Trans index today, > up over 4%?? > > Sentiment seems too excessively optimistic on Japan and its > economy lately. Granted, a proposed 25% cut across the board > in taxes would boost the economy and address one of the > issues, but will it pass? And where will the govt collect > the lost revenues? Haven't seen too many govts lately > willing to truly cut back and budget. Japan can't cut > interest rates any further to stimulate economic activity, > they are already practically at zero, unless they want to > pay people to borrow. Interesting concept, hey, if you are > willing to open a new McDonald's franchise, we will loan you > the money for all the capital expenses, plus pay you half a > point on the amount borrowed, then cut the taxes on the > profits you expect to make. Only thing is, the banking > industry is in seriously deep doo doo there, and how are > they to show a profit like this without creative > bookkeeping, which has been part of the problem for several > decades? > > I think there is still some chance of another round of rate > cuts in Europe this year, and the likelihood of a rate hike > in USA has further diminished to near zero, at least for > 1999. Oil may finally have peaked, as well as the precious > metals at about the same time. Other commodities appear to > be tame. > > I'm still looking for a site where I can examine the R2000 > basics, e.g. up/down volume, new highs/lows, etc in anal > detail. Gotta find some time, however. > > Tom Worley > stkguru@netside.net > chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 > get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html > > - - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] SCAI Date: 14 Apr 1999 23:42:25 -0400 Come on, Ben. When a stock goes from $30 to $80 in a single trading day, what do you expect to happen on the following day? Ask this question again in several weeks after the market can absorb such unpredictable and irratic action, and maybe there can be more than pure guesses. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html -----Original Message----- What do you make of what happened to SCAI today? Is this a start of a cup? Thaks, Ben 963-2428 home 945-9183 work Cyber Consultants-Training, Installations, Home Page Design mailto:bheffer@sopris.net http://mt.sopris.net/bheffer/gses/gses.html - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Patrick Wahl" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Flotsam and Jetsam (or misc random thoughts) Date: 14 Apr 1999 22:31:13 -0800 > I'm still looking for a site where I can examine the R2000 > basics, e.g. up/down volume, new highs/lows, etc in anal > detail. Gotta find some time, however. I don't know if this is any help, but if you go to this link and click on 2000 securities, you will get a complete list of the stocks in the Russell 2000. This does require Adobe Acrobat. http://www.cme.com/market/equity/guide/rs_criteria.html - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Johan Van Houtven Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] SCH Climax Run? Date: 14 Apr 1999 14:02:39 +0200 At 08:32 PM 13/04/99 -0400, you wrote: >Possible climax run on SCH. Same picture as others in the group: NDB, EGRP, AMTD, etc Anyone else seeing so many of these hyper extended stocks, mostly in the internet related sector? Just take a look at the new high list of the last two days. The start of a climax run in the leading internet sector maybe? On the other hand their are quite a few bullish breakouts. NASDAQ volume was spectacular Tues @ approx 1,353,000,000 shares. Per IanW/HGS: The "high road scenario" would be base low + 25% = 2224 (NASD 02/18/99) + 25% = 2780. Last time we only hit 20% (that would be 2669 now). And per the usual 9 month cycle from major correction to next major correction: we are now in 6th month (start counting from the last major correction, i.e. Oct 99). It is very hard to find true bears. Many of us have been rubbing our hands so hard, that any further rubbing would be painful since the protective skin layer has almost disappeared. ;^) All of the above leads me to be extra carefull now. Ofcourse I wouldn't be surprised if we go on to new heighs. I've been out of the market to quickly before... so take the above "careful here attitude" with a few grains of salt. -- Johan Van Houtven - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Craig Griffin Subject: [CANSLIM] M - (was SCH Climax Run?) Date: 15 Apr 1999 08:22:15 -0400 At 02:02 PM 4/14/99 +0200, you wrote: >At 08:32 PM 13/04/99 -0400, you wrote: >>Possible climax run on SCH. > >Same picture as others in the group: NDB, EGRP, AMTD, etc > >Anyone else seeing so many of these hyper extended stocks, mostly in the >internet related sector? Just take a look at the new high list of the last >two days. The start of a climax run in the leading internet sector maybe? Several conflicting trends yesterday. Bullish sentiment still higher than preferred. Put/call ratio has improved (more puts lately). Cyclicals look like they want to rumble. Tech heavy NAS sells off big time on big-big volume. Earnings coming in great this season overall (including techs). Small caps starting to kick up their heels. Utilities getting clobbered. Transports taking off. (several signals of strengthening (!) economy - worries over higher interest rates vis a vis the Utilities) Advance/decline line and New highs/new lows improves as the market sells off. :- looks like a broadening of the rally :) As Tom is fond of saying, one day does not a trend make. AMTD just came out with sterling earnings ... so, these "climax runs" may end up being high tight flags before it is all over. As somebody just said - no way I would short in this market. SCH actually declined less, considering its recent gains, than a lot of the tech stocks yesterday. It certainly looks climactic on the chart - but as IOM proved several times - nothing is certain. Time will tell... Best Regards, Craig - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: musicant@autobahn.org (Dan Musicant) Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Russell 2000, was "M" Date: 15 Apr 1999 12:43:01 GMT On Wed, 14 Apr 1999 00:45:38 EDT, you wrote: :I know Tom and several on the list are strong believers of Russell 2000.= My=20 :question is what actually is Russell 2000. It is supposed to be 2000=20 :companies of small cap stocks. If you look at some of the members like = CMGI,=20 :EGRP etc. you thing these will qualify what small cap is? : :Regards : :Surindra It looks like the small caps MAY be showing signs of at last participating in the bull. A few decent to good days don't make this clear. I don't know the figures, but small caps are smaller than mid caps which are smaller than big caps, and all of these are bigger than micro caps. Dan - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: musicant@autobahn.org (Dan Musicant) Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Russell 2000, was "M" Date: 15 Apr 1999 12:52:50 GMT On Wed, 14 Apr 1999 09:02:05 -0700, you wrote: :The RUT is the 2000 stocks following the 1000 biggest stocks, by :capitilazation. It's more of a small-mid cap index. I think the Wilshire= 2000 :is the actual 2000 smallest cap stocks larger than the micro-caps, and = no I :don't know how that is defined. : Vis a vis indexes, I have been wondering about the significance of the Wilshire 5000. I heard that this essentially tracks all US stocks, indescriminant of size. I went to Wilshire's website and saw, in part, the following (I don't think they will mind my quoting the material...BTW, what is law/netiquette regarding quoting online - I'm somewhat hazy on this... something tells me that it's not such a good idea :)) Dan The Wilshire 5000 Index The Wilshire 5000 Equity Index measures the performance of all U.S. headquartered equity securities with readily available price data. Over 7,000 capitalization weighted security returns are used to adjust the index. The Wilshire 5000 base is its December 31, 1980 capitalization of $1,404.596 billion. Therefore, the index is an excellent approximator of dollar changes in the U.S. equity market. For instance, values of 2157.146 on 12/30/85 and 2164.690 on 12/31/85 represents an approximate increase of $7.5 billion. The index's actual market value and unit value differ due to additions and deletions of securities. The Wilshire 5000 capitalization is about 81% NYSE, 2% AMEX, and 17% OTC. Wilshire Associates views the performance of the Wilshire 5000 Index in several ways. Wilshire calculates price and total return indexes using both capital and equal weights. The unit value of these four indexes was set to 1.0 on December 31, 1970. - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com (Jeff Salisbury) Subject: [CANSLIM] Changing your canslim subscription Date: 15 Apr 1999 08:00:02 -0600 This is a monthly posting to the CANLSLIM group. Frequently, people sign up for the canslim list and then are overwhelmed by the volume of the email. There are two remedies for this problem: 1) You can leave our group, or 2) you can switch to the digest version which "conglomerates" many canslim messages into one large message. To change your configuration, email a message to: majordomo@xmission.com The remove yourself from the canslim list, write in the body of the email: unsubscribe canslim To add yourself to the digest version of the canslim list, write in the body of the email: subscribe canslim-digest For general help with majordomo commands, write in the body of the email: help If you need further clarification, write me directly at: canslim-owner@lists.xmission.com Best Regards, Jeff Salisbury - CANSLIM list admin / owner - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Craig Griffin Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] SCH Climax Run? Date: 15 Apr 1999 11:32:24 -0400 Johan, Very nice post ... You wrote: >It is very hard to find true bears. >Many of us have been rubbing our hands so hard, that any further rubbing >would be painful since the protective skin layer has almost disappeared. ;^) >All of the above leads me to be extra carefull now. >Ofcourse I wouldn't be surprised if we go on to new heighs. I've been out >of the market to quickly before... so take the above "careful here >attitude" with a few grains of salt. Judging from the last 2 days action, it is very useful to try to identify climactic activity. Both SCH and NTBK holders would have benefited, as well as those using such stocks as clues to market health. Best benefit to owners of these stocks would have come from recognizing intraday on Tuesday 4/13, for both stocks, that an exhaustion gap had probably developed. One could have sold based on that. Second best benefit would have come from recognizing the same thing overnight Tuesday night and then selling Wednesday 4/14 at the open (which would have happened to actually generate a tad higher price, but with far higher risk). Additionally, as Johan pointed out, these climaxes occurring at the same time and on a very high volume reversal day for the market did not bode well for the market as a whole, especially for the market's current leadership. This may be rotational (into new leadership), but at the moment it is most painful for those of us holding the old leadership. One question to be answered: is this truely a rotation, or simply a shakeout before the old leaders resume? Best Regards, Craig PS. Hindsight is 20/20, natch. - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Trailing Stops and SCH Date: 15 Apr 1999 22:13:10 -0400 Craig, I beg to differ. Using trailing stops on a rising stock is a sensible way to protect a profit, esp if you don't have to time to closely follow the trading behaviour. I really have to spend some time digging out the interview WON did some years ago for the broker's magazine, it had many good quotes. Drat, another weekend project! One of the things I learned over the years from WON's staffers, as well as reading WON interviews, etc, was that there were effectively three phases to purchasing a stock. The first was to protect capital by using a mental or actual stop based on your entry point (assuming of course that you picked a correct entry). This was done by setting a sell stop approx 8% below your purchase price. This 8% has been modified to make it also coincide with the bottom of the base it should have been breaking out from, allowing the actual stop to be slightly more or less depending on the quality of the base, how close to the base you caught it, etc. Some used stops of 15%, however WON when he first started used 10% and found this was too much, hence the 8%. The second phase is to protect against any loss at all (the first phase was to protect against a significant loss of capital). This was done by raising your stop once you were up 15% from your initial entry price. Again, WON in the interview I need to find advocated using a stop of 8%, in this case now down from the latest price. The third phase was to start protecting profits by moving your stop up (but never, EVER DOWN) as the stock continued to perform and move higher. Again, this would be 8% down from recent prices. While there has been much discussion in this group over arbitrarily selling once you are up 20%, what WON advocated to stock brokers was the above. His only support for selling with 20% or so profits was to establish confidence in the system, to get a few "base hits", to learn. But once that maturation and education was accomplished, he talked in terms of holding his best performers for a year or longer. At the time I knew of several he had held for upwards of several years and made several hundred percent profit. One point I must emphasize: the article I am referring to was written in times when volatility was only a fraction of today; investors didn't have "real time" access to information, much less to trading ability, as they do today; and virtually every investor was dealing through a broker, be it a full service or discount one. And, needless to say, there were no internet stocks (OK, I know I'm a dinosaur, but actually I'm only referring to about 1991 or so, and that's still in this decade, OK??). That's how new this whole internet thing actually is to the investing community. Considering the mkt cap size of so many compared to the GEs and P&Gs and Ts and MRKs etc, it's really hard to imagine that so many of them didn't even EXIST only a few years ago. I promise, I swear, I really mean it this time, I will search high and low for this article until I find it (of course, I'm one of the biggest procrastinators, not filing my taxes until a week ago despite being due my biggest refund in over a decade! But don't let that worry you, I really mean it this time, I'll dig until I find it). Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html -----Original Message----- Rolatzi, You wrote: >I have gotten stopped out of stocks after they broke out. I do >not want to turn a profit into a loss so after the stock is >ahead 10% I will raise the stop loss to 10% less than high >price. For example I bought CMVT at 85, placed a stop loss at >7% less than that and when it went up I began to raise raised >the stop loss. At 99 I set a stop loss at 89 where it is now. >It is possible that I will get stopped out but that the stock >will then turn around and begin to move up again. Am I reading >WON wrong? Am I moving my stop losses up too quickly? Should I >give the stock more room to move? I often get stopped out with >small profits but I am taking less losses than I used to. I >would appreciate people's opinion on this matter. You should only move your stop loss one time per WON. First of course, you set your stop at 7 or 8% from your buy point. Then, once you are ahead 15% or so, you move your stop to your buy point in order to not let the 15% gain turn into a loss. If I remember correctly, this is the classic rule per WON. After this, then what does one do? Use the selling "pointers" in HTMMIS (see Chapter 10, especially the 36 rules enumerated under "Other Prime Selling Pointers".) Basicly, after you are ahead 15%+, you need to give a stock room to breath. Trace the course on a chart of any big winner. For example YHOO or DELL or CMGI. Depending on the stock, you will see variations of 10-40% frequently on the way up. This can be hard to sit through, yes. But to get the really big gains on a winning stock like NTBK you have to sit through some stuff. Once ahead 40%, would you want to be stopped out because it retraced 20% before advancing another 100%. With a 10 or 15% trailing stop, you will never hold onto the big winners for the 9 months to 3 years it takes for a 5 or 10 bagger to develop - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Deepak Kapur Subject: [CANSLIM] trying to learn Date: 15 Apr 1999 22:04:14 -0600 I am curious about what would have been a prudent strategy for ntbk and cmvt, given the action yesterday and today. Craig and Dan, any comments? Thanks. Deepak - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Craig Griffin Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] trying to learn Date: 16 Apr 1999 08:09:29 -0400 Deepak, With NTBK, assuming you bought it right at about, say $64-65 (pivot was $62ish), then ideally IMO, you would have held it until the day of the exhaustion gap (4/13). On that day, ideally you would have sold half sometime during the day. The other portion you would let ride until other selling rules come into effect or it builds a new base and breaks out. With CMVT, if one bought on the day of the breakout, 4/5 at about say $89 (pivot about $87), then one should worry about no volume on that day IMO. Sometimes low volume breakouts workout fine, especially in the big caps. But in the small caps that is rarely the case. So I would have been looking for volume the next day. The volume came in, but the stock was down a bit. In a way this creates a "stealth" breakout. Because much of the buying has happened above the pivot as the stock was selling off. A weekly volume chart ends up looking much better. That said - the stock is acting ok since. It pulled back yesterday, but did not threaten any stops for people who bought on 4/5 - 4/7, especially those who managed to buy within 5% of the pivot (say up to $91). Yesterday's retracement would have been hard to bear, especially since buyers at $91 would have been underwater for part of the day. But overall, I'd say its ok and would hold it unless it returns to the base. If it pulls back into the base, even by a bit, I would sell half, just for insurance (at this point it would be close to the stop anyway). If it hit my 8% stop, I would sell all of course. Wait a minute you say, weren't some of the early buyers (at say $88) ahead by 15% and thus threatened on yesterday's pullback (now they would have moved their stop to their buypoint). Yes, that is a difficult position, but so far, even those buyers are ok (it was only barely up 15% for the very early buyers at one point). It is still touch and go, especially if it pulls back today and drags its tail along the top of the base - I hate it when they do that. NTBK would have been much easier to hold, initially as it zoomed out of there with only a one or two day brief pullback. The past two day's action would have been tough on holders as they saw most of their profits evaporate as quickly as they appeared (like a magician's game). However, those who sold on the exhaustion day and hung on to half are in great shape IMO. You have a fine profit with half. With the other half, you have a stock with good potential that may not give another decent entry point for a while. It rebounded powerfully by the close yesterday, which is encouraging. OTOH, if it continues to pull back and you feel forced to sell, at least you captured half the profit. Contrary opinions and additional insight are welcome. I am still trying to always learn too. Best Regards, Craig PS. If one buys correctly (within 5 or at most 10% of the pivot) and can mostly ignore the intraday swings, it seems one does better. If you are checking quotes 20 times a day, that is counter-productive because you are inclined to trade intraday moves, which is not Canslim. Better to check quotes two or maybe three times a day or have a paging service which notifies you of stops and breakouts. At 10:04 PM 4/15/99 -0600, you wrote: >I am curious about what would have been a prudent strategy for ntbk and cmvt, >given the action yesterday and today. > >Craig and Dan, any comments? Thanks. > >Deepak > >- > > - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Johan Van Houtven Subject: [CANSLIM] Cyclical stocks Date: 16 Apr 1999 09:39:56 +0200 What is a cyclical stock? Any examples? Why are the stocks mentioned below cyclical? From CBS MarketWatch: The Dow was kept afloat by gains in some of its cyclical components: DuPont rose 2 11/16 to 67 15/16, International Paper 3 1/8 to 55 3/8, Chevron 4 5/8 to 95 3/4, AlliedSignal 2 13/16 to 56 1/8, and Exxon 3 3/8 to 77 9/16. Investors' infatuation with the cyclical sector maintained a weeklong trend. Some investors have been drawn to the stocks given the prospects for a pick-up in world economic growth over the coming year. At the same time, many players have chucked high-flying technology and healthcare issues out of their portfolios due to valuation concerns. -- Johan Van Houtven - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Craig Griffin Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Cyclical stocks Date: 16 Apr 1999 10:56:32 -0400 Johan, These are stocks that typically rise and fall in cycles which are tied to the economic cycle. The theory is that an advancing economy goes through stages of expansion leading to eventual overheating and finally a new recession. Then you come out of the recession and go through an new expansion. At one of the stages, everything is booming and the cyclical stocks kick into gear with good earnings. These are usually basic materials stocks like paper, aluminum, and chemicals (IP, AA, DD). They make good money when demand is high enough to allow them to make use of their factories beyond a certain threshold at which incremental demand translates into big profits. Typically this is in the late stages of the economic expansion, just prior to the next recession. In addition to the materials stocks, the heavy industries and semiconductors are also said to be cyclical, but at perhaps slightly different stages of the cycle. Heavy industry stocks like CAT and DE are also moving lately though. All of this also goes along with the theme of the Transports (rail, trucking, air) kicking up their heels as they will be shipping all of the goods and thus they will be making more money as well. Best Regards, Craig At 09:39 AM 4/16/99 +0200, you wrote: >What is a cyclical stock? Any examples? > >Why are the stocks mentioned below cyclical? > >From CBS MarketWatch: > > The Dow was kept afloat by gains in some of its cyclical > components: DuPont rose 2 11/16 to 67 15/16, > International Paper 3 1/8 to 55 3/8, Chevron 4 5/8 to > 95 3/4, AlliedSignal 2 13/16 to 56 1/8, and Exxon 3 > 3/8 to 77 9/16. > > Investors' infatuation with the cyclical sector maintained > a weeklong trend. Some investors have been drawn to > the stocks given the prospects for a pick-up in world > economic growth over the coming year. At the same > time, many players have chucked high-flying technology > and healthcare issues out of their portfolios due to > valuation concerns. > > > >-- Johan Van Houtven > > > >- > > - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: DS Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Cyclical stocks Date: 16 Apr 1999 10:20:39 -0500 Johan Van Houtven wrote: Johan, Cyclical stocks are stocks that respond to a robustly expanding economy. As I'm sure you know, the economy moves in a cyclical fashion and these stocks tend to really move towards the end of the cycle when demand for basic materials and expensive (cars, vacations) items is strong. The demand drives up prices of basic materials. The companies that manufacture these basic materials are highly leveraged so their earnings can explode when commodity prices rise. These stocks are not only rallying because our economy still looks strong but also on the perception that global economies are starting to expand again. An interesting thing about these stocks is that you often want to buy them when their PE's are high and sell them when their PE's are low. This is because their earnings plummet at the bottom of the cycle and gives them a high PE. The opposite is also true .....at an economic top these stocks are churning out earnings and their PE's are often lower at this time. Hope this helps, DSquires > What is a cyclical stock? Any examples? > > Why are the stocks mentioned below cyclical? > > >From CBS MarketWatch: > > The Dow was kept afloat by gains in some of its cyclical > components: DuPont rose 2 11/16 to 67 15/16, > International Paper 3 1/8 to 55 3/8, Chevron 4 5/8 to > 95 3/4, AlliedSignal 2 13/16 to 56 1/8, and Exxon 3 > 3/8 to 77 9/16. > > Investors' infatuation with the cyclical sector maintained > a weeklong trend. Some investors have been drawn to > the stocks given the prospects for a pick-up in world > economic growth over the coming year. At the same > time, many players have chucked high-flying technology > and healthcare issues out of their portfolios due to > valuation concerns. > > -- Johan Van Houtven > > - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: PWahl@sysinn.com Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] Cyclical stocks Date: 16 Apr 1999 09:21:29 -0600 > -----Original Message----- > From: Johan Van Houtven [SMTP:click@ping.be] > Sent: Friday, April 16, 1999 1:40 AM > To: canslim@lists.xmission.com > Subject: [CANSLIM] Cyclical stocks > > What is a cyclical stock? Any examples? [Wahl, Patrick] The professor can give a more detailed explanation, but basically, its a manufacturing type company in a mature (that is, non-growth) industry whose fate is closely tied to the economic cycle. When the economy goes into a recession, a cyclical company's earnings typically fall sharply, maybe even turn into a loss. I think this has something to do with fixed costs that are there even when business slows down, all those idle factories and so on. Of course, we have had such a long time since the last recession it is hard to remember that those things happen. A few exmples would be the auto industry, any mining comany, like Phelps Dodge, paper, like International Paper, chemicals, Dow and so on. The fact that their earnings fall so far is also the reason that companies such as Dow and Ford rarely have a high P/E ratio. They never get bid up that high because in the next economic slump eveyrone knows earnings will fall again. In fact, they might have the highest P/E ratio at the bottom of the recession, where earnings are down the most, and that is the best time to buy them. At the top of a cycle, Ford might have a P/E of only 5 or 6. I hope this is somewhat clear. - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Johan Van Houtven Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Cyclical stocks Date: 16 Apr 1999 18:35:39 +0200 Craig, Dave & Patrick, Thx. One question: Why/how are they highly leveraged? >The companies that >manufacture these basic materials are highly leveraged so their earnings >can explode when commodity prices rise. Johan - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Walter Stock Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Trailing Stops and SCH - Craig and Tom Date: 16 Apr 1999 12:50:20 -0400 Craig and Tom, Thank you both for the excellent posts on SCH and sell stops. This kind of outstanding material from you veterans is what makes this list so good. Walter Oakville - ONT, Canada - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Johan Van Houtven Subject: [CANSLIM] Oils like SLB breaking out Date: 16 Apr 1999 20:15:22 +0200 SLB (not CANSLIM) breaking out of secondary base on decend volume. Others like RDC, HAL also looking good. Anyone have any other trading idea's in this, in my opinion currently, non-CANSLIM market? Many cyclicals are extended and I have to learn more about them before I'm confortable trading them. Johan - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: DS Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Cyclical stocks Date: 16 Apr 1999 13:24:25 -0500 Johan, They are leveraged because they have lots of assets and usually a lot of corporate debt. (think about how much machinery it takes to manufacture gasoline or lumber!) A large amount of assets often causes high fixed costs. This is the key to their large earnings swings. When demand is poor their high fixed costs cause losses. When demand is strong all they have to do is pay the fixed costs and (ignoring variable costs) the rest is profit. So, there comes a revenue point where each additional unit sold adds disproportionatly to profits and this is why profits increase quickly. DSquires Johan Van Houtven wrote: > > Craig, Dave & Patrick, > > Thx. > > One question: Why/how are they highly leveraged? > > >The companies that > >manufacture these basic materials are highly leveraged so their earnings > >can explode when commodity prices rise. > > Johan > > - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: TM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Cyclical stocks Date: 16 Apr 1999 11:27:51 -0700 (PDT) There may be more than one definition. Here is one for the S&P 1500 SuperComp. http://www.spglobal.com/sector-concyclicals.html --- Johan Van Houtven wrote: > What is a cyclical stock? Any examples? > > Why are the stocks mentioned below cyclical? > > From CBS MarketWatch: > > The Dow was kept afloat by gains in some of its cyclical > components: DuPont rose 2 11/16 to 67 15/16, > International Paper 3 1/8 to 55 3/8, Chevron 4 5/8 to > 95 3/4, AlliedSignal 2 13/16 to 56 1/8, and Exxon 3 > 3/8 to 77 9/16. > > Investors' infatuation with the cyclical sector maintained > a weeklong trend. Some investors have been drawn to > the stocks given the prospects for a pick-up in world > economic growth over the coming year. At the same > time, many players have chucked high-flying technology > and healthcare issues out of their portfolios due to > valuation concerns. > > > > -- Johan Van Houtven > > > > - > > _________________________________________________________ Do You Yahoo!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: rolatzi Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Oils like SLB breaking out Date: 16 Apr 1999 11:34:31 -0700 (PDT) Johan, Energy Service has been one of my non-canslim sector trades over the last month and a half. I haven't looked today but the price of oil must be up to explain the strength of these eneregy service stocks. The sector put in a double or triple or quadruple bottom about two months ago and crossed above the 50dMA about a month and a half ago and the 200dMA more recently. The srength of the Far Asian stock markets and stability of Latin America combined with the posturing of OPEC convinced me that a real recovery in oil prices was in progress. This has translated into the breakouts you note. Some of the smaller oil service stocks were canslim candidates a year or two ago before the price of oil plummetted and probably can be reconsidered in if you discount the severe drop in revenues resulting from declining oil prices. At the same time, the sector isn't exactly on the cutting edge of new technology though part of the reason that oil prices have declned so much is because of new methods of exploration and drilling. Ciao, rolatzi --- Johan Van Houtven wrote: > SLB (not CANSLIM) breaking out of secondary base on decend > volume. > > Others like RDC, HAL also looking good. > > Anyone have any other trading idea's in this, in my opinion > currently, > non-CANSLIM market? > > Many cyclicals are extended and I have to learn more about > them before I'm > confortable trading them. > > > > > > Johan > > > > > > > - > > _________________________________________________________ Do You Yahoo!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Connie Mack Rea Subject: [CANSLIM] XOI,etc. [Connie Mack] Date: 16 Apr 1999 18:19:49 -0400 I have a list of oils, drillers, etc. that looked as if they were selected after the market closed. There was not a single loss anywhere. I had traded a couple last week, but am still extracting a bit of dollar juice from DELL. Wouldn't advise playing with DELL unless you've much experience. These are the stocks of my oil list: TMAR ESV BJS WFT GLM TBI VRC TDW FLC UTI GLBL HLX DO BHI NE ATW CXIPY. The XOI was up 17 plus. Were you to have followed the 3/7/10 EMA, you would have been put in during the first few days in March and never taken out. Quite a ride--minus all the indecisions. I'll run these stocks through my screens this evening. If any look as if there were still a good entry left, I'll post later. Connie Mack - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Trailing Stops and SCH - Craig and Tom Date: 17 Apr 1999 00:09:14 -0400 You're quite welcome, Walter. I would hope recent increased activity in discussion and posting may also encourage some of the newbies and lurkers to join in. Come on, members, it's really a pretty friendly and helpful site on the net. If you're reluctant to jump in with a stock pick, and get some feedback, or ask a pertinent CANSLIM question, then toss in an intro so at least maybe we know you're out there. Share a little of your professional background and experience, or your investing experience. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html -----Original Message----- Tom Craig and Tom, Thank you both for the excellent posts on SCH and sell stops. This kind of outstanding material from you veterans is what makes this list so good. Walter Oakville - ONT, Canada - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: [CANSLIM] On Oils Date: 17 Apr 1999 00:38:44 -0400 The move in crude and related petroleum products prices in the past two months is largely supported by a pair of expectations: Expectation that the Asian and other world economies have stabilized and begun to recover, esp in Japan which is a major importer of oil. Even the LATAM economies seem to be stable for the moment. Expectation that plans for, and now announced production cuts, will finally reduce production below existing demand levels and finally start dropping inventories below 12 year record levels. Some of the latter expectation has been offset by past history, in which some of the producer nations have yet to achieve promised cuts from over a year ago. Here's a pertinent snip from Infobeat's report tonight on the oils and today's 3% jump in prices: Contributing to today's price gain was increased consumption of jet fuel by North Atlantic Treaty Organization aircraft bombing Yugoslavia, traders said. Some European oil storage companies said their inventories have had their biggest drop in more than a year, with the biggest declines in jet fuel. ``The war could take hold as part of the psychology in the market,'' said Michael Fitzpatrick, a trader at Fimat USA Inc. in New York. ``There is anecdotal evidence of buyers coming in from NATO paying above-the-market prices for jet fuel.'' (Bloomberg) Just goes to show that war is good for some. One interesting part that is currently happening is that these expectations have caused oil prices to rise so sharply that most of the producer nations can actually make the cuts promised of several percentage points, and yet still derive greater net revenues since oil prices have risen about 50% in the past two months. We have already seen some defaults on futures contracts, in Mexico I think it was, and likely some others elsewhere. I suspect some of the actual demand may be coming from refiners and stockpilers trying to lock in for future months the relatively low prices. If either of the expectations fails to be realized in the ne xt several months, or the Kosovo assault is ended, then it could cut actual demand and cause a major price drop. That in turn could mean that producer nations, at a lower production level, would suffer a negative cash flow on the lower sales. Likewise, if prices remain high, producers may start flooding the mkt trying to take advantage of the high prices while available. However, those very same "recovering" economies will suffer the most, and at a very fragile point in time, from the latest high prices of energy products. Whether that's enough to reverse any actual or perceived economic recovery remains to be seen. Thus, there's lots of factors afoot in the oil patch, lots of issues pulling and tugging. Be careful, and understand at least some of the issues unless you're just day trading on momentum. Expect volatility, and try to anticipate it. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: [CANSLIM] DGO New Highs Date: 17 Apr 1999 11:51:04 -0400 A most interesting week, including seeing strength not only in the small caps consistently, but also actually seeing days when the Dow 30 and/or NASDAQ was down for the day, but the advance/decline was still positive (we've seen far too much of the exact opposite). Money clearly rotating into the cyclicals, and that's certainly helping breadth. The Dow 30 hit a new high every day of the week, and volume was above average every day. The RS line also took a sharp turn up. The Trans Index was quiet on the first two days, then broke out the rest of the week on heavy volume. NASDAQ did not fare well, down for the week on heavy volume, and the RS line trending down. On the NYSE Composite, a small loss for the week, however the volume was accelerating in the last days of the week as the RS line turned up. Volume on the Russell 2000 has now been above average for 10 straight days, and the RS has been trending up for the last six. However, it's again back into resistance above the 420 line. The 10 day moving average on both up/down volume and new highs/lows ended positive for both NYSE and NASDAQ, tho the separation on Naz is only slight, and down volume was accelerating almost as fast as up volume. New highs average is over 100 on Naz. NYSE is already well into overbought territory, Naz is neutral on this. Here's the week's performance for those that otherwise missed it: DOW 30 +3.1% NASDAQ - 4.2% S&P100 -1.8% S&P500 -2.1% Russell 2000 +3.8% VIX Mkt Volatility +11.2% (needless to say, a bad sign) On the Economics front, lots of reports lately suggest to me that the economy is slowing, and the latest weekly report on unemployment claims also suggests that the labor mkt is not strengthening, and may be weakening. I am seeing an abnormal number of reports coming in below expectation, suggesting that the gurus are too optimistic. While the proposed tax cut in Japan is significant, it hasn't been passed yet, so no fundamental change has yet happened there. Oil prices have skyrocketed (poor me, I gotta fill the gas tank this weekend) on expectations that have the potential to be proven false eventually. Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization reports on Friday particularly caught my eye. Housing starts were up, but Building Permits were down. Stocks in O'Neil's Daily Graphs books that made new highs last week continued to expand and totalled 408 versus 317 the prior week. Of these, the ones that met the basic 80/80 rule for RS/EPS totalled 127 versus 119 the week before. Several big cap names returned to the list, including WMT and GE. NITE continued to be the only one I saw with perfect numbers (99, 99, A, A). Here's the list of the survivors: OMC, AEOSD, CCL, EBAY, TG, GLC, GPS, SPLS, TCAT, MHP, JNJ, CLE, JBL, DH, GICOF, SCF, EUSA, GE, CMVT, ANF, HC, SCAI, WMT, NW, RARE, MWD, TMPW, BXM, TJX, RSC, EXPD, KWP, BEBE, GEOC, ZQK, ATLB, FMBK, NTRS, QCOM, HDI, CINRF, ABCO, NITE, VOD, OCLI, PVN, CDO, RFMD, DSP, PROX, KCP, POS, JEF, ZION, MTP, NTT, CATT, BGF, AMES, NDB, FSR, WAT, DGX, RCCK, ATI, TIF, TRK, FNDTF, COF, MBRS, SBUX, AXP, DAL, NTAP, TRB, CPRT, SCH, UNPH, LM, TLAB, ETEK, ISCA, USM, BJ, ALTR, HAS, HRZ, UTX, EFII, AULT, IR, RYAAY, AVY, ETM, DHR, PHCC, RICA, CPN, PKX , TECH, DNEX, SSD, MXIM, CXR, TAGS, MTW, SRT, IFIN, ITP, LIN, ADVS, CTS, ADBE, ALD, ASTE, MCRL, CPWM, JAKK, OSSI, SDLI, MDCA, PLCE, CRHCY, GNTX, FWRD, FRK, JCI. Happy hunting. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Walter E. Nusbaum" Subject: RE:Greetings(was [CANSLIM] Trailing Stops and SCH - Craig and Tom) Date: 17 Apr 1999 12:36:23 -0500 Tom, Well, you've shaken another Walter out of the CANSLIM tree. By way of introduction, I'm a retired sailor, have an MBA in Finance(minor in economics), a 15 year participant in the markets including stocks, mutual funds, and commodities, and pilgrimage to Las Vegas at least twice a year. I have logged 1,000+ hours at the blackjack tables, and while I may not be an authority, I can at least speak from experience. I quite enjoy this site and was attracted to it because of my interest in the "M" in CANSLIM. I was hoping to find a broader discussion of market direction, as it is the simplest and most accurate predictor of market movements that I have seen. I do have a question here. While "M" works wonderfully well with nearly all indexes, it seems to fail when applied to individual stocks. This would seem counter-intuitive, since the indexes are made up of these same stocks? Some years ago I tried my hand at individual stock selection(though not with CANSLIM), and got killed.(Well, not really). During this time, I noticed the discrepancy in the performance between really good mutual funds and the also-rans. There were few of the former, and a ton of the latter, yet they were *all* managed by market professionls. I deduced that if experienced professionals, blessed with a staff of analysts could only produce mediocre results, then I could not hope to do any better on my own. Hence, I gravitated to mutual funds. I can not offer anything to the list, except the method that I use to determine what funds to be in. It is called the "Pankin System", named after its originator, Dr. Mark Pankin:(http://www.Pankin.com.) It is meant to be used to rank Fidelity's Selects, but I find it works well with all funds. Briefly: 1). Use all the Selects, except gold funds. 2). Using a *three* week period, rank the funds. 3). Buy the top fund and hold for *five* weeks. Re-rank weekly on Fridays. This should give CANSLIM'rs a quick and easy look at the strongest sectors, and perhaps help in individual stock selection. While I apologize for the length of this note, I must add another personal observation(FWIW). I use market dips to facilitate exchanges(if called for) into stronger funds. While I have every respect for Mr. O'neil, I have to disagree when he calls for "lightening up" or the use of MMF's(cash) on market declines. I have lost more money by being *out* of the market, than I ever did by staying in. I used to attempt to time the market and sell high, while buying low. Somehow, it never worked out that way and I don't think it works(consistently) for anyone else. Since June '90, there have been some sixteen market declines, with only *two* greater than -10%(JUL'96:-13%, and a low in OCT '98 of -19.8%). The problem with declines is that there is no way to determine the *extent* of the decline, hence we all fear "the big one". If there is a "secret" to making money in the stock market it is this: "You never lose money until you *sell* something". If you hold *solid* stocks or funds through the declines, they have *never* failed to recover and eventually move to even higher highs. Yes, I still fear market drops, but as a reminder that they are just hiccups along the way, I have taped a graph of the market to my wall. The market has blown through those dips that I once agonized over and continues its inexorable, upward move. Best wishes, Walt Yesterday upon the stair, I met a man who wasn't there, He wasn't there again today, I wish, I wish he'd go away. Unk. -----Original Message----- [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of Tom Worley Sent: Friday, April 16, 1999 11:09 PM You're quite welcome, Walter. I would hope recent increased activity in discussion and posting may also encourage some of the newbies and lurkers to join in. Come on, members, it's really a pretty friendly and helpful site on the net. If you're reluctant to jump in with a stock pick, and get some feedback, or ask a pertinent CANSLIM question, then toss in an intro so at least maybe we know you're out there. Share a little of your professional background and experience, or your investing experience. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html -----Original Message----- Tom Craig and Tom, Thank you both for the excellent posts on SCH and sell stops. This kind of outstanding material from you veterans is what makes this list so good. Walter Oakville - ONT, Canada - - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: mckeen@ix.netcom.com Subject: [CANSLIM] Trailing Stops and SCH - Craig and Tom Date: 17 Apr 1999 12:44:40 -0500 (CDT) Walter wrote: Ditto. Mary - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Connie Mack Rea Subject: [CANSLIM] Technical stuff; oils, drillers, etc. [Connie Mack] Date: 17 Apr 1999 13:17:16 -0400 For those who make use of the 3/7/10 EMA, there is this rough estimate of when to anticipate a correction. If you use BigCharts, note when the separation between the 3 and 7 EMA is twice the separation between the 7 and 10 EMA. The "correction" may be no more than the decline of the 3 EMA to the 7. It might be no more just a flattening out of price to be followed by a further upturn. Whatever one may say about the EMAs when price is rising may also be said when price is falling. I.e., when the 3 EMA is beneath the 7 and 10 EMA and when the separation is double the separation between the 7 and 10 EMA, you may expect a correction. The greater the separation between the 7 and 10 EMA, the more significant the action of the 3 EMA whether you're working with a stock inclining or declining. Occasionally, you will see a triple separation. When I see this, I usually sell some portion of my position and do not wait for the 3 EMA to rollover, which is a damn near certainty. Spikes are interesting patterns. You might search for some to see if you can compile a few relevant inferences. The double and triple separation rules are similar for spikes as for flatter patterns. One unusual spike is that in which all three of the 3/7/10 EMA are nearly superimposed. Comments apply to intraday trading also. Several traders I know acknowledge the usefulness of the many technical patterns used for longer term are equally useful for short term trading, including candles. I suggest that you accompany your reading of the EMA with another indicator. I prefer the MACD whether working short or longer term. __________________________________________ Of the oils and drillers that I posted yesterday, I will try to buy these on Monday. My intent will be to swing trade these rather than day trade them. I am still day trading DELL but don't advise anyone to do so unless he's been trading for a while. I'll use BigCharts for my comment. BJS gave a 3/7/10 EMA buy Wednesday. Therefore, I am a bit late on entry. However, the SAR turned buy Friday and the MACD crossed down above the trigger line and looks to be ready to turn up. Arbitrarily, I say "trigger line" to mean the 0 line. There's no great harm if you have other nomenclature. In the instance of BJS, notice that the crossing of the red [faster of the two colored lines] and blue lines occurred above the trigger line during the correction; therefore, read this action as a correction of strength. Had the colored lines had their action below the trigger line, any crossing taking place under the trigger line would have been a correction under weakness. There is no reason that you could not use one or both of the colored lines crossing through the trigger line for buy and sell signals. Almost no technical reading of indicators is gospel. Without any comment: I'll be ready to enter FLC, NE, and CXIPY. However, there is not much preference for the above over ESV, WFT, GLM, TBI, UTI, DO, and ATW. Connie Mack - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: DS Subject: Re: Greetings(was [CANSLIM] Trailing Stops and SCH - Craig and Tom) Date: 17 Apr 1999 14:31:55 -0500 Walter, I have been trading Pankin for my mothers account based on the model derived by Nelson Freeburg. However, I have stuck to Fidelity select funds only. What other funds have you included in your rankings? Has it improved or hurt performance? Thanks, DSquires "Walter E. Nusbaum" wrote: > > Tom, > Well, you've shaken another Walter out of the CANSLIM tree. By way of > introduction, I'm a retired sailor, have an MBA in Finance(minor in > economics), a 15 year participant in the markets > including stocks, mutual funds, and commodities, and pilgrimage to Las Vegas > at least twice a year. I have logged 1,000+ hours at the blackjack tables, > and while I may not be an authority, I can at least speak from experience. > > I quite enjoy this site and was attracted to it because of my interest in > the "M" in CANSLIM. I was hoping to find a broader discussion of market > direction, as it is the simplest and most accurate predictor of market > movements that I have seen. I do have a question here. While "M" works > wonderfully well with nearly all indexes, it seems to fail when applied to > individual stocks. This would seem counter-intuitive, since the indexes are > made up of these same stocks? > > Some years ago I tried my hand at individual stock selection(though not with > CANSLIM), and got killed.(Well, not really). During this time, I noticed the > discrepancy in the performance between really good mutual funds and the > also-rans. There were few of the former, and a ton of the latter, yet they > were *all* managed by market professionls. I deduced that if experienced > professionals, blessed with a staff of analysts could only produce mediocre > results, then I could not hope to do any better on my own. Hence, I > gravitated to mutual funds. > > I can not offer anything to the list, except the method that I use to > determine what funds to be in. It is called the "Pankin System", named after > its originator, Dr. Mark Pankin:(http://www.Pankin.com.) It is meant to be > used to rank Fidelity's Selects, but I find it works well with all funds. > Briefly: > 1). Use all the Selects, except gold funds. > 2). Using a *three* week period, rank the funds. > 3). Buy the top fund and hold for *five* weeks. Re-rank weekly on Fridays. > This should give CANSLIM'rs a quick and easy look at the strongest sectors, > and perhaps help in individual stock selection. > > While I apologize for the length of this note, I must add another personal > observation(FWIW). I use market dips to facilitate exchanges(if called for) > into stronger funds. While I have every respect for Mr. O'neil, I have to > disagree when he calls for "lightening up" or the use of MMF's(cash) on > market declines. I have lost more money by being *out* of the market, than I > ever did by staying in. I used to attempt to time the market and sell high, > while buying low. Somehow, it never worked out that way and I don't think it > works(consistently) for anyone else. > > Since June '90, there have been some sixteen market declines, with only > *two* greater than -10%(JUL'96:-13%, and a low in OCT '98 of -19.8%). The > problem with declines is that there is no way to determine the *extent* of > the decline, hence we all fear "the big one". If there is a "secret" to > making money in the stock market it is this: "You never lose money until you > *sell* something". If you hold *solid* stocks or funds through the declines, > they have *never* failed to recover and eventually move to even higher > highs. > > Yes, I still fear market drops, but as a reminder that they are just hiccups > along the way, I have taped a graph of the market to my wall. The market has > blown through those dips that I once > agonized over and continues its inexorable, upward move. > Best wishes, > Walt > Yesterday upon the stair, > I met a man who wasn't there, > He wasn't there again today, > I wish, I wish he'd go away. > Unk. > > -----Original Message----- > From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com > [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of Tom Worley > Sent: Friday, April 16, 1999 11:09 PM > To: canslim@lists.xmission.com > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Trailing Stops and SCH - Craig and Tom > > You're quite welcome, Walter. > > I would hope recent increased activity in discussion and > posting may also encourage some of the newbies and lurkers > to join in. Come on, members, it's really a pretty friendly > and helpful site on the net. > > If you're reluctant to jump in with a stock pick, and get > some feedback, or ask a pertinent CANSLIM question, then > toss in an intro so at least maybe we know you're out there. > Share a little of your professional background and > experience, or your investing experience. > > Tom Worley > stkguru@netside.net > chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 > get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html > > -----Original Message----- > From: Walter Stock > To: Canslim Group > Date: Friday, April 16, 1999 12:48 PM > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Trailing Stops and SCH - Craig and > Tom > > Craig and Tom, > > Thank you both for the excellent posts on SCH > and sell stops. > > This kind of outstanding material from you veterans > is what makes this list so good. > > Walter > Oakville - ONT, Canada > > - > > - > > - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: musicant@pacbell.net (Dan Musicant) Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] trying to learn Date: 17 Apr 1999 19:38:57 GMT On Thu, 15 Apr 1999 22:04:14 -0600, you wrote: :I am curious about what would have been a prudent strategy for ntbk and = cmvt, :given the action yesterday and today. : :Craig and Dan, any comments? Thanks. : :Deepak I have not been watching CMVT. Well, I have followed it with some interest intermitently as it has been discussed at length on the list, but I haven't looked at it in several days, and have not been motivated to consider establishing a position in it by virtue of what I have seen. I think the prudent action for NTBK would have been a quick sale when Wednesday's selloff materialized. Of course, I now have the benefit of 20-20 hindsight in making this assessment! The stock opened sharply down and finished the day rather significantly lower than that. It's action can now be seen as a precursor of the somewhat sharp drop in the Internet stocks that happened later in the trading day. Once again, 20-20 hindsight in action! I only had 10 minutes to make up my mind Wednesday morning what I was going to do as I had to go to work, and I didn't do anything with my 200 shares. I felt there was no reason to believe the stock wouldn't soon rebound. I sold my NTBK yesterday (Friday) at 10:30 EDT, 1/2 hour after open, along with my other 3 positions and currently stand on the sidelines in cash 100%.=20 I think that taking a position in NTBK (or selling) at this point is in the realms of speculation, and not CANSLIM investing. Not that CANSLIM investing is not a form of speculation (see HTMMIS), but establishing a position in NTBK at this point is not CANSLIM investing. There is nothing like a base, so it is not a CANSLIM play. I established my position on 3/17 and the base was beautiful. At that point, I think it was pretty much a CANSLIM purchase, although I did not consult a checklist. It's a small float stock with real earnings in a blast-off group, and the chart looked good to me. The stock has been incredibly volatile even for an Internet stock in the last month, and big money is apt to be won or lost here. Not for the giddy, squeamish or faint of heart! The 3 for 1 stock split takes effect 4/23 for shareholders of record on that day, FWIW. The Internet stocks have sold off and I do not know if they will rebound or if a rebound will presage another powerful surge. There is talk of the sector deflating, and it could be a self fulfilling prophecy in the making. It has been noted that there has been a lot of rotation recently. I'm going to chill and try to take a fresh look, but don't know when I will act. Dan - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Marc Laniado" Subject: [CANSLIM] OSSI and HDI Date: 18 Apr 1999 11:34:28 +0100 Take a look at OSSI. It was forming a flat base for 6 weeks, then started rising in the last few days on increased volume compared to that time. The volume wasn't over its 3 month average, but I think it's worth a look. Timely A A/D A Group RS 77 Earnings stability 8 (good) EPS 89 RS 92 SMR A CAP 2.6 Billion Harley Davidson (HDI) looks interesting also! I see JAKK took off also - a small cap and extended now Anyone else have any ideas for CANSLIM stocks?? CANSLIM doen't really apply to cyclicals Marc Marc E Laniado marclaniado@msn.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Rossi1080@aol.com Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] OSSI and HDI Date: 18 Apr 1999 09:15:27 EDT Im trying to get myself off of the Camslim email. Do you know how? I would appreciate it if you could tell me what to do. Thanks 1,000,000 Rossi - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Johan Van Houtven Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] OSSI and HDI Date: 18 Apr 1999 18:10:42 +0200 Marc, First thing I look at before considering a stocks is "M". Does the market still look bullish to you? Do you expect a strong upleg from here? Some consolidation? A correction? I haven't studied the market yet this weekend, but form what I looked at last week, things didn't look hyper bullish to me. The NASDAQ (techs) looked negative, the rest was more or less neutral. Result: cash and enjoying the rest - as Dan said: in no hurry to reinvest it all again. If it all turns or my view changed after looking at "M" later this evening I'll be there (i.e. in the market). Anyway, I'd like to see your assement of "M" as you seem to be a good CS stock picker. Thx in advance. At 11:34 AM 4/18/99 +0100, you wrote: >Take a look at OSSI. It was forming a flat base for 6 weeks, then started >rising in the last few days on increased volume compared to that time. The >volume wasn't over its 3 month average, but I think it's worth a look. >Timely A >A/D A >Group RS 77 >Earnings stability 8 (good) >EPS 89 >RS 92 >SMR A >CAP 2.6 Billion > >Harley Davidson (HDI) looks interesting also! > >I see JAKK took off also - a small cap and extended now > >Anyone else have any ideas for CANSLIM stocks?? >CANSLIM doen't really apply to cyclicals >Marc > > >Marc E Laniado >marclaniado@msn.com > > > > > >- > > Johan - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "John Adair" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Trailing Stops and SCH - Craig and Tom Date: 18 Apr 1999 13:29:46 -0500 I have been following the Iandex 30. It looks scary all 30 of the sector leaders are turning down. A lot of them are below the 17 day Mov and some below the 50 day mov. Ian says in his report that if the averages hit their 17 day mov be alert for a correction. On the other hand the dow and nasdaq are doing well, The a/d line is turning up and the mutual fund index is still holding up. I have a lot of respect for Ian's work. Does this concern anyone else. In the past the Iandex has been an early warning and has been right. John Adair ----- Original Message ----- Sent: Friday, April 16, 1999 11:09 PM > You're quite welcome, Walter. > > I would hope recent increased activity in discussion and > posting may also encourage some of the newbies and lurkers > to join in. Come on, members, it's really a pretty friendly > and helpful site on the net. > > If you're reluctant to jump in with a stock pick, and get > some feedback, or ask a pertinent CANSLIM question, then > toss in an intro so at least maybe we know you're out there. > Share a little of your professional background and > experience, or your investing experience. > > Tom Worley > stkguru@netside.net > chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 > get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html > > > -----Original Message----- > From: Walter Stock > To: Canslim Group > Date: Friday, April 16, 1999 12:48 PM > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Trailing Stops and SCH - Craig and > Tom > > > Craig and Tom, > > Thank you both for the excellent posts on SCH > and sell stops. > > This kind of outstanding material from you veterans > is what makes this list so good. > > Walter > Oakville - ONT, Canada > > > > > > - > > > > - > > - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: david lawson Subject: [CANSLIM] Fidelity fund switching Date: 18 Apr 1999 15:31:34 -0400 Walter, The number 3 point is not clear to me.After a 3 week period your invested in the top performing fund,which you hold for 5 weeks.When you re-rank on Friday would you only switch to a higher ranking fund after 5 weeks?Which means in the 6th week you may be switching to the highest ranked fund at that time?Thanks in advance. Ari "Walter E. Nusbaum" wrote: > > Tom, > Well, you've shaken another Walter out of the CANSLIM tree. By way of > introduction, I'm a retired sailor, have an MBA in Finance(minor in > economics), a 15 year participant in the markets > including stocks, mutual funds, and commodities, and pilgrimage to Las Vegas > at least twice a year. I have logged 1,000+ hours at the blackjack tables, > and while I may not be an authority, I can at least speak from experience. > > I quite enjoy this site and was attracted to it because of my interest in > the "M" in CANSLIM. I was hoping to find a broader discussion of market > direction, as it is the simplest and most accurate predictor of market > movements that I have seen. I do have a question here. While "M" works > wonderfully well with nearly all indexes, it seems to fail when applied to > individual stocks. This would seem counter-intuitive, since the indexes are > made up of these same stocks? > > Some years ago I tried my hand at individual stock selection(though not with > CANSLIM), and got killed.(Well, not really). During this time, I noticed the > discrepancy in the performance between really good mutual funds and the > also-rans. There were few of the former, and a ton of the latter, yet they > were *all* managed by market professionls. I deduced that if experienced > professionals, blessed with a staff of analysts could only produce mediocre > results, then I could not hope to do any better on my own. Hence, I > gravitated to mutual funds. > > I can not offer anything to the list, except the method that I use to > determine what funds to be in. It is called the "Pankin System", named after > its originator, Dr. Mark Pankin:(http://www.Pankin.com.) It is meant to be > used to rank Fidelity's Selects, but I find it works well with all funds. > Briefly: > 1). Use all the Selects, except gold funds. > 2). Using a *three* week period, rank the funds. > 3). Buy the top fund and hold for *five* weeks. Re-rank weekly on Fridays. > This should give CANSLIM'rs a quick and easy look at the strongest sectors, > and perhaps help in individual stock selection. > > While I apologize for the length of this note, I must add another personal > observation(FWIW). I use market dips to facilitate exchanges(if called for) > into stronger funds. While I have every respect for Mr. O'neil, I have to > disagree when he calls for "lightening up" or the use of MMF's(cash) on > market declines. I have lost more money by being *out* of the market, than I > ever did by staying in. I used to attempt to time the market and sell high, > while buying low. Somehow, it never worked out that way and I don't think it > works(consistently) for anyone else. > > Since June '90, there have been some sixteen market declines, with only > *two* greater than -10%(JUL'96:-13%, and a low in OCT '98 of -19.8%). The > problem with declines is that there is no way to determine the *extent* of > the decline, hence we all fear "the big one". If there is a "secret" to > making money in the stock market it is this: "You never lose money until you > *sell* something". If you hold *solid* stocks or funds through the declines, > they have *never* failed to recover and eventually move to even higher > highs. > > Yes, I still fear market drops, but as a reminder that they are just hiccups > along the way, I have taped a graph of the market to my wall. The market has > blown through those dips that I once > agonized over and continues its inexorable, upward move. > Best wishes, > Walt > Yesterday upon the stair, > I met a man who wasn't there, > He wasn't there again today, > I wish, I wish he'd go away. > Unk. > > -----Original Message----- > From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com > [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of Tom Worley > Sent: Friday, April 16, 1999 11:09 PM > To: canslim@lists.xmission.com > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Trailing Stops and SCH - Craig and Tom > > You're quite welcome, Walter. > > I would hope recent increased activity in discussion and > posting may also encourage some of the newbies and lurkers > to join in. Come on, members, it's really a pretty friendly > and helpful site on the net. > > If you're reluctant to jump in with a stock pick, and get > some feedback, or ask a pertinent CANSLIM question, then > toss in an intro so at least maybe we know you're out there. > Share a little of your professional background and > experience, or your investing experience. > > Tom Worley > stkguru@netside.net > chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 > get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html > > -----Original Message----- > From: Walter Stock > To: Canslim Group > Date: Friday, April 16, 1999 12:48 PM > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Trailing Stops and SCH - Craig and > Tom > > Craig and Tom, > > Thank you both for the excellent posts on SCH > and sell stops. > > This kind of outstanding material from you veterans > is what makes this list so good. > > Walter > Oakville - ONT, Canada > > - > > - > > - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Tim Fisher Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Trailing Stops and SCH - Craig and Tom Date: 18 Apr 1999 15:26:59 -0700 Where do you get the Iandex 30 chart from? I have looked and haven't found it. P.S. Re: stops I have been letting mine take me out, I was up 20%+ on almost everything so have them set at 15% trailing stops & was taken out of the drugs, AOL & GMST last week. I'm sitting on my cash until this rotation business has run its course. At 01:29 PM 4/18/99 -0500, you wrote: >I have been following the Iandex 30. It looks scary all 30 of the sector >leaders are turning down. A lot of them are below the 17 day Mov and some >below the 50 day mov. Ian says in his report that if the averages hit their >17 day mov be alert for a correction. >On the other hand the dow and nasdaq are doing well, The a/d line is >turning up and the mutual fund index is still holding up. I have a lot of >respect for Ian's work. >Does this concern anyone else. In the past the Iandex has been an early >warning and has been right. >John Adair Tim Fisher, 1995 President, Pacific Fishery Biologists Ore-ROCK-On Rockhounding Web Site PFB Information mailto:tim@OreRockOn.com WWW http://OreRockOn.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Walter E. Nusbaum" Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] Fidelity fund switching Date: 18 Apr 1999 18:14:04 -0500 -----Original Message----- [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of david lawson Sent: Sunday, April 18, 1999 2:32 PM Ari, Walter, The number 3 point is not clear to me.After a 3 week period your invested in the top performing fund,which you hold for 5 weeks. Not exactly. If you did the ranking today(Sunday), you could buy the top fund tomorrow. The three week period is the measure of time over which the funds are ranked and is either determined by graphing(The eyeball method), or by calculating the percentantage advance over the past three weeks.(The fund with the highest percentage gain "wins"). When you re-rank on Friday would you only switch to a higher ranking fund after 5 weeks? Yes, but only if the originally purchased fund falls below the top 25% of all funds ranked. Keep re-ranking weekly, and when the fund falls out of the top 25%, then exchange into the #1 fund. Pankin found that five weeks was the optimum time to hold before considering switching, as this gives the fund time to prove its worth.(How many times have you switched from one fund to another, only to watch the new fund head South, while the old fund suddenly found new life?) :( Which means in the 6th week you may be switching to the highest ranked fund at that time? You are correct, but see above. I'm sorry about the confusion. Here are a couple of other points that were also not included. 1). Pankin uses a 7% stop on all funds.(Regardless of the length of time a fund was held, if a fund violates the stop, he switches to the #1 fund). He inserted this device after taking a severe loss in FSESX(Energy Service). 2). He also uses a MMF(I use a short term government bond fund), so that if *all* funds fall below the MMF, he goes to cash. I do not. If this ever happened, I would switch to one of Fidelity's index funds, and wait for the up-turn.(Or maybe the second) :) 3). While he stays in the #1 fund, I try to stay in the top two funds.(He concurs that the difference is not that great, and that even three funds may be used, but no more). If you have more questions, please ask, but it would be better to call me direct at: wnusbaum@airmail.net Best wishes, Walt Thanks in advance. Ari (SNIP) - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: [CANSLIM] ISP failure Date: 18 Apr 1999 20:11:49 -0400 Hey gang, I've been off the net for two days due a breakdown at my ISP. Anything sent to me during that time was lost. I've done a fast scan through the archives, but didn't see anything specifically addressed to me, so if I missed something, better resend it. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: FBNAirPlt@aol.com Subject: [CANSLIM] Acc/Dis Numbers Date: 18 Apr 1999 21:01:52 EDT Here are the latest Acc/Dis Numbers: A lot of improvement this week. Date A B C D E AB/A:E %E 4/1/99 900 2387 1323 1284 635 50% 10% 4/5/99 876 2351 1298 1309 670 50% 10% 4/6/99 878 2337 1358 1277 654 49% 10% 4/7/99 904 2324 1359 1255 648 50% 10% 4/8/99 911 2264 1335 1315 647 49% 10% 4/9/99 903 2273 1287 1341 668 49% 10% 4/12/99 953 2243 1282 1336 660 49% 10% 4/13/99 982 2278 1310 1280 638 50% 10% 4/14/99 1023 2311 1310 1242 613 51% 9% 4/15/99 1074 2358 1261 1215 605 53% 9% 4/16/99 1124 2466 1240 1148 546 55% 8% 4/19/99 1153 2565 1221 1086 520 57% 8% Spreadsheet version: Date,A,B,C,D,E,AB/A:E,%E 4/1/99,900,2387,1323,1284,635,50%,10% 4/5/99,876,2351,1298,1309,670,50%,10% 4/6/99,878,2337,1358,1277,654,49%,10% 4/7/99,904,2324,1359,1255,648,50%,10% 4/8/99,911,2264,1335,1315,647,49%,10% 4/9/99,903,2273,1287,1341,668,49%,10% 4/12/99,953,2243,1282,1336,660,49%,10% 4/13/99,982,2278,1310,1280,638,50%,10% 4/14/99,1023,2311,1310,1242,613,51%,9% 4/15/99,1074,2358,1261,1215,605,53%,9% 4/16/99,1124,2466,1240,1148,546,55%,8% 4/19/99,1153,2565,1221,1086,520,57%,8% Robert - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "John Adair" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] source for the iandex graphs Date: 18 Apr 1999 20:59:58 -0500 The spreadsheet and formulas were posted on the http://nt-chat().telescan.com:8080/read/3623,38 by bobvincent@aol.com. bob is a retired engineer and uses excel as a base . He posted the spreadsheet on the wallstreetcity board but I bet he would post it here if asked. It requires some work to figure it out he downloads 252 days of data per each of the 30 stocks in to a blank spreadsheet. He then separates each of the groups of 252 days by inserting one row between each. then copies it to the actual spread sheet. the rest is automatic. He uses telescan data feed. I Use quotes plus an export the data to askii and then go to excel and open the file. I delimit the data and use comma separators. The data is then usable in excel. JOhn Adair ----- Original Message ----- Sent: Sunday, April 18, 1999 5:26 PM > Where do you get the Iandex 30 chart from? I have looked and haven't found it. > > P.S. Re: stops I have been letting mine take me out, I was up 20%+ on almost > everything so have them set at 15% trailing stops & was taken out of the drugs, > AOL & GMST last week. I'm sitting on my cash until this rotation business has > run its course. > > At 01:29 PM 4/18/99 -0500, you wrote: > >I have been following the Iandex 30. It looks scary all 30 of the sector > >leaders are turning down. A lot of them are below the 17 day Mov and some > >below the 50 day mov. Ian says in his report that if the averages hit their > >17 day mov be alert for a correction. > >On the other hand the dow and nasdaq are doing well, The a/d line is > >turning up and the mutual fund index is still holding up. I have a lot of > >respect for Ian's work. > >Does this concern anyone else. In the past the Iandex has been an early > >warning and has been right. > >John Adair > > > Tim Fisher, 1995 President, Pacific Fishery Biologists > Ore-ROCK-On Rockhounding Web Site > PFB Information > mailto:tim@OreRockOn.com > WWW http://OreRockOn.com > > - > > - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Marc Laniado" Subject: Fw: [CANSLIM] OSSI and HDI Date: 19 Apr 1999 07:05:56 +0100 Dear Johan, Thank you for your kind words. The M is a challenge, but generally keeps rising with leadership rotation. Being in the right groups seems very important, but predicting which one does seem a challenge that perhaps, as a group, we can work out. If cyclicals are the way to go, then Ford (F) and GM seem well placed if they break through their recent highs on volume. These may be in a trading range otherwise. Incidentally, I think (!) OSSI is due to post earnings on Tuesday (20/4/99). I am also watching PLCE, POWI, FDS, SFP, SANM, WTSLA and CINRF. CINRF might be right to get now. All the best, Marc Marc E Laniado marclaniado@msn.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Walter E. Nusbaum" Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] Sector Rankings(was OSSI and HDI) Date: 19 Apr 1999 07:52:21 -0500 Marc, Last Friday's rankings of Fidelity's Selects were: 1) FSPFX(Paper & Forrest Products) 2) FSDPX(Industrial Materials) 3) FSCHX(Chemicals) & FSAVX(Automotive)(Tie) 4) FSAIX(Air Transportation) & FSLEX(Environmental Services)(Near tie) The above are based on a three week ranking. FSESX(Energy Services) looks promising, but is not there yet.(FWIW). Best wishes, Walt -----Original Message----- [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of Marc Laniado Sent: Monday, April 19, 1999 1:06 AM Dear Johan, Thank you for your kind words. The M is a challenge, but generally keeps rising with leadership rotation. Being in the right groups seems very important, but predicting which one does seem a challenge that perhaps, as a group, we can work out. If cyclicals are the way to go, then Ford (F) and GM seem well placed if they break through their recent highs on volume. These may be in a trading range otherwise. Incidentally, I think (!) OSSI is due to post earnings on Tuesday (20/4/99). I am also watching PLCE, POWI, FDS, SFP, SANM, WTSLA and CINRF. CINRF might be right to get now. All the best, Marc Marc E Laniado marclaniado@msn.com - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Ssingh@aol.com Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] ISP failure Date: 19 Apr 1999 09:17:51 EDT In a message dated 4/18/99 8:16:43 PM Eastern Daylight Time, stkguru@netside.net writes: << Subj: [CANSLIM] ISP failure Date: 4/18/99 8:16:43 PM Eastern Daylight Time From: stkguru@netside.net (Tom Worley) Sender: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com Reply-to: canslim@lists.xmission.com To: canslim@xmission.com (CANSLIM) Hey gang, I've been off the net for two days due a breakdown at my ISP. Anything sent to me during that time was lost. I've done a fast scan through the archives, but didn't see anything specifically addressed to me, so if I missed something, better resend it. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html >> Tom: You need a better service like aol, yahoo etc. etc. Have a nice day Regards Surindra - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Peter Newell" Subject: [CANSLIM] Is RATL breaking out of double bottom? Date: 19 Apr 1999 10:40:35 -0700 I was just looking at RATL and realized it might be a double bottom. It has a 73 EPS/ 93 RS according to www.stocktables.com. Anyone have the numbers from IBD? Thanks, Peter Newell - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Technical stuff; oils, drillers, etc. [Connie Mack] Date: 19 Apr 1999 06:29:18 -0700 Connie, How do you get the 3/7/10 EMA on BigCharts? I went there and using the 3-line EMA and entering a 3 I get a 3/6/9 EMA. Also I see there a choice between SMA and EMA...What is the difference and which is the most commonly used? Sometimes posts here and elsewhere (like db's) just refer to xxDMA...would these be more likely to mean the SMA or EMA? I too have been watching the oil groups and based on group movement and what I thought was a nice cup/handle/volume B/O I entered RIG on friday...My other holdings in previous leaders seem to be hitting my stop/sell rules...sold AOL friday...others are real close. Thanks. Ziggy Connie Mack Rea wrote: > For those who make use of the 3/7/10 EMA, there is this rough estimate > of when to anticipate a correction. If you use BigCharts, note when the > separation between the 3 and 7 EMA is twice the separation between the 7 > and 10 EMA. > > The "correction" may be no more than the decline of the 3 EMA to the 7. > It might be no more just a flattening out of price to be followed by a > further upturn. Whatever one may say about the EMAs when price is > rising may also be said when price is falling. I.e., when the 3 EMA is > beneath the 7 and 10 EMA and when the separation is double the > separation between the 7 and 10 EMA, you may expect a correction. > > The greater the separation between the 7 and 10 EMA, the more > significant the action of the 3 EMA whether you're working with a stock > inclining or declining. > > Occasionally, you will see a triple separation. When I see this, I > usually sell some portion of my position and do not wait for the 3 EMA > to rollover, which is a damn near certainty. > > Spikes are interesting patterns. You might search for some to see if > you can compile a few relevant inferences. The double and triple > separation rules are similar for spikes as for flatter patterns. One > unusual spike is that in which all three of the 3/7/10 EMA are nearly > superimposed. > > Comments apply to intraday trading also. Several traders I know > acknowledge the usefulness of the many technical patterns used for > longer term are equally useful for short term trading, including > candles. > > I suggest that you accompany your reading of the EMA with another > indicator. I prefer the MACD whether working short or longer term. > __________________________________________ > > Of the oils and drillers that I posted yesterday, I will try to buy > these on Monday. My intent will be to swing trade these rather than day > trade them. I am still day trading DELL but don't advise anyone to do > so unless he's been trading for a while. > > I'll use BigCharts for my comment. > > BJS gave a 3/7/10 EMA buy Wednesday. Therefore, I am a bit late on > entry. However, the SAR turned buy Friday and the MACD crossed down > above the trigger line and looks to be ready to turn up. Arbitrarily, I > say "trigger line" to mean the 0 line. There's no great harm if you > have other nomenclature. In the instance of BJS, notice that the > crossing of the red [faster of the two colored lines] and blue lines > occurred above the trigger line during the correction; therefore, read > this action as a correction of strength. > > Had the colored lines had their action below the trigger line, any > crossing taking place under the trigger line would have been a > correction under weakness. There is no reason that you could not use > one or both of the colored lines crossing through the trigger line for > buy and sell signals. Almost no technical reading of indicators is > gospel. > > Without any comment: I'll be ready to enter FLC, NE, and CXIPY. > > However, there is not much preference for the above over ESV, WFT, GLM, > TBI, UTI, DO, and ATW. > > Connie Mack > > - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Mabbs@aol.com Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Fidelity fund switching Date: 19 Apr 1999 10:56:10 EDT Where can I get more info on the Fidelity MF switching method? Is it something I can do myself or do I need to subscribe to a service? THX - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Is RATL breaking out of double bottom? Date: 19 Apr 1999 09:14:03 -0700 Peter, IBD numbers are E75 RS93 GS=B Sales/Margin/ROE=C A/D=B. IOM chart looks like it has completed about 2/3 of the right side of a cup that began in early Feb. Needs to complete cup and work on the handle. I am new to reading charts and therefore would appreciate feedback from you and others. Ziggy. Peter Newell wrote: > I was just looking at RATL and realized it might be a double bottom. It has > a 73 EPS/ 93 RS according to www.stocktables.com. Anyone have the numbers > from IBD? > > Thanks, > > Peter Newell > > - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Connie Mack Rea Subject: [CANSLIM] Oils, drillers, etc. [Connie Mack] Date: 19 Apr 1999 12:46:44 -0400 For those who want to check all around the block on oils, services, and drillers, you can use BigCharts. Go to the main page. There you can get all the indexes as well as sectors. Click on Stock Sectors/Mining/Oil & Gas Exploration. Then take your choice. My faculty investment group won't let me forget that after I schooled them a bit about double and triple bottoms they started buying the oils and drillers. They bought and I didn't. After Friday's close and today's run, they have become a maniacal bunch of Ph.D.s. Completely out of control. They're trying to borrow their grandparents' savings. One even offered to sell me his small children. Just kidding. About the children. However, the stocks are acting well today and look to do even better. I did get some NE, FLC, and TDW. May buy further into the day. Dart throwing could become a science with the groups. Connie Mack - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Connie Mack Rea Subject: [CANSLIM] DELL: As much a long term buy as a trade. [Connie Mack[ Date: 19 Apr 1999 13:03:11 -0400 For those who would like to buy on the correction, you might look at DELL for the long term. It's is now 36.6. There is much support between 35-6 and 36.6. Might be an opportunity to nibble just a bit. I will buy some between 36 and 36.37. DELL is as much a long term buy as it is a trade. Connie Mack - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Peter Newell" Subject: [CANSLIM] M - Is this a rotation or a correction? Date: 19 Apr 1999 15:02:21 -0700 I've missed some of the discussion on M. But I have to wonder if this is the start of a correction, Nasdaq - 4% on heavy volume(again) and the Dow up. Looks like money looking for safe haven's to me. Or a rotation. If so where are we rotating to looks like a lot of junk, except for some good oil co's. Opinions? Peter Newell - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Chris Hudson Subject: [CANSLIM] New guy Date: 19 Apr 1999 14:18:19 -0500 Hello. My name is Chris Hudson and I just subscribed to the list. I am currently reading O'Neil's book "How to Make Money In Stocks" and so I thought this group would be interesting to subscribe to. I also recently read "How I Made $2 Million In The Stock Market" by Nicolas Darvas and liked it very much. I look forward to some intersting discussions. -- Chris - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] M - Is this a rotation or a correction? Date: 19 Apr 1999 12:36:50 -0700 Peter, I also think this may be a correction. At least based on the stocks I own...drugs,techs...my RIG (oil driller) is doing ok and SEIC (financial) just reported stronger than est earn but even that is lacking based on the positive surprise. Peter Newell wrote: > I've missed some of the discussion on M. > > But I have to wonder if this is the start of a correction, Nasdaq - 4% on > heavy volume(again) and the Dow up. > > Looks like money looking for safe haven's to me. > > Or a rotation. If so where are we rotating to looks like a lot of junk, > except for some good oil co's. > > Opinions? > > Peter Newell > > - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Craig Griffin Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] M - Is this a rotation or a correction? Date: 19 Apr 1999 15:46:11 -0400 Looks like a correction in the NASDAQ and tech stocks to me. The NASDAQ move out of the recent base looks like "wedging" possibly. Leaders like MSFT and SUNW that broke out lately have collapsed back into their base - bad sign. Rotation? Vicious moving into the cyclicals and maybe oils. The old leadership is looking really sick. Looking for new leadership. Doesn't look like a Canslim'r market. Distribution on the NAS on 04/07, 04/12, 04/13, 04/14 and 04/15 was pretty impressive. Advance/declines and new highs/lows looking better and better weirdly enough - maybe another sign of rotation (?). Valuations long out of whack, maybe time to pay the piper for some of these nut stocks. A model portfolio which I have been tracking was up 60% YTD a couple of weeks ago. At the moment it is up 14%. This portfolio has 14 stocks, 5 of which are internet, and most of the rest are technology related. People are going to be shaken a bit after today. Will take a while to rebuild confidence. People will be shifing to value and bonds IMO. Warning, there is an awful lot of opinion in the above paragraph and I am frequently wrong when expressing opinion. The distribution on the chart, the collapse of the leaders, the A/D line and new highs/new lows are facts. Cyclical stocks breaking out over the last 3 weeks is also fact. As is climactic activity in several NAS leaders. Best Regards, Craig At 03:02 PM 4/19/99 -0700, you wrote: >I've missed some of the discussion on M. > >But I have to wonder if this is the start of a correction, Nasdaq - 4% on >heavy volume(again) and the Dow up. > >Looks like money looking for safe haven's to me. > >Or a rotation. If so where are we rotating to looks like a lot of junk, >except for some good oil co's. > >Opinions? > >Peter Newell > > >- > > - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Peter Newell" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Welcome to the "New guy" Chris Date: 19 Apr 1999 15:42:28 -0700 Chris, Welcome. Looks like a reread of the chapter that says something like "A word to the wise, I bet the market's been soaring straight up lately. This may not be a great time to try canslim. Wait for the correction to end before trying these techniques". May be in order. Anyhow, most of the people that are left on this list have pretty good advice. Hope it helps. Happy hunting, Peter Newell -----Original Message----- >Hello. My name is Chris Hudson and I just subscribed to the list. I am >currently reading O'Neil's book "How to Make Money In Stocks" and so I >thought this group would be interesting to subscribe to. I also recently >read "How I Made $2 Million In The Stock Market" by Nicolas Darvas and liked >it very much. >I look forward to some intersting discussions. > -- Chris > > > > >- > > - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Marc Laniado" Subject: [CANSLIM] Thoughts Date: 19 Apr 1999 21:11:26 +0100 This correction and sell off may be real, but it also indicates to me rotation in leadership. I've only been following for 6 months, but it's clear to me you have to follow the movement in industry sectors, keep raising your stops to protect profits, and sell losers quickly to make money. Take ASTE for example - up between 4 and 5 (at time of message) from 35 and Ford (up still?), maybe down now, but was up on big volume earlier. I didn't mention ASTE in earlier email because I didn't (couldn't) believe that the best stocks would be priced down! ASTE EPS 80 RS 94 SMR A A/D A GROUP PERFORMANCE (MACHINERY-CONST/MINING) 3 months ago > 100, 2 months ago >100, 1 month ago, > 100, 2 weeks ago 121, last week 74 Industry group RS 63 Check its chart out (weekly for 1 year). Last week up on heavy volume! Check Maytag (MYG) also up (stock up on bad day!) and PLCE Watch what happened to NITE today! It blew off last week indicating a sell (as per guidance from the HTMMIS). We have to stick to the rules. Maybe I'm naive, but for us to be successful, we must try and act on all the CANSLIM approaches and contribute what we know to the whole group. So please do contribute ideas about stock group rotation and individual stock leadership. Who's following what the mutual funds are buying - does anyone know a website we can find out from? Check these groups that have moved up! SHOES & REL APPAREL BANKS-MONEY CENTER LEISURE-HOTELS & MOTELS OIL & GAS-DRILLING OIL&GAS-FIELD SERVICES BLDG-PAINT & ALLIED PRDS MACHINERY-FARM LEISURE-GAMING METAL PROD-DISTRIBUTOR FINANCE-PUBL INV FD-FRN POLLUTION CONTROL-EQUIP CHEMICALS-PLASTICS CHEMICALS-BASIC AEROSPACE/DEFENSE EQP FINANCE-CONSUMR/COMML AUTO MFRS-FOREIGN RETAIL-DEPARTMENT STORES TRUCKS & PARTS-HVY DUTY LEISURE-TOYS/GAMES/HOBBY TRANSPORT-AIR FREIGHT TRANSPORTATION-AIRLINE MACHINERY-CONST/MINING BANKS-FOREIGN RETAIL-HOME FURNISHINGS RETAIL/WHOLESALE-JEWELRY MEDIA-PERIODICALS LEISURE-SERVICES STEEL-PRODUCERS UTILITY-TELEPHONE MACHINERY-GEN INDUSTRIAL LEISURE-PRODUCTS BLDG-HAND TOOLS BLDG PROD-WOOD TRANSPORTATION-SVCS MEDIA-NEWSPAPERS INSURANCE-DIVERSIFIED LEISURE-MOVIES & RELATED FINANCE-INVESTMENT BKRS MEDIA-RADIO/TV ELECTRICAL-CONTROL INSTR RETAIL-MAJOR DISC CHAINS ELECTRICAL-EQUIPMENT FINANCIAL SERVICES-MISC COMPUTER SOFTW-EDUC/ENTR PAPER & PAPER PRODUCTS COMPUTER SOFTWARE-FIN CONSUMER PRODUCTS-MISC DIVERSIFIED OPERATIONS ELEC-MEASRNG INSTRUMENTS TELECOMMUNICATIONS-SVCS TELECOMMUNCTNS-CELLULR ELEC PRODUCTS-MISC RETAIL-RESTAURANTS TELECOMMUNICATIONS-EQUIP COMPUTER-GRAPHICS BLDG-CONSTR PRODS/MISC RETAIL-APPAREL/SHOE MEDICAL-GENERIC DRUGS RETAIL-CONSUMER ELECT HOUSEHOLD-AUDIO/VIDEO ELEC-LASER SYS/COMPONENT Thanks and good luck - together we stand! Marc Marc E Laniado marclaniado@msn.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Marc Laniado" Subject: [CANSLIM] Thoughts Date: 19 Apr 1999 21:11:26 +0100 This correction and sell off may be real, but it also indicates to me rotation in leadership. I've only been following for 6 months, but it's clear to me you have to follow the movement in industry sectors, keep raising your stops to protect profits, and sell losers quickly to make money. Take ASTE for example - up between 4 and 5 (at time of message) from 35 and Ford (up still?), maybe down now, but was up on big volume earlier. I didn't mention ASTE in earlier email because I didn't (couldn't) believe that the best stocks would be priced down! ASTE EPS 80 RS 94 SMR A A/D A GROUP PERFORMANCE (MACHINERY-CONST/MINING) 3 months ago > 100, 2 months ago >100, 1 month ago, > 100, 2 weeks ago 121, last week 74 Industry group RS 63 Check its chart out (weekly for 1 year). Last week up on heavy volume! Check Maytag (MYG) also up (stock up on bad day!) and PLCE Watch what happened to NITE today! It blew off last week indicating a sell (as per guidance from the HTMMIS). We have to stick to the rules. Maybe I'm naive, but for us to be successful, we must try and act on all the CANSLIM approaches and contribute what we know to the whole group. So please do contribute ideas about stock group rotation and individual stock leadership. Who's following what the mutual funds are buying - does anyone know a website we can find out from? Check these groups that have moved up! SHOES & REL APPAREL BANKS-MONEY CENTER LEISURE-HOTELS & MOTELS OIL & GAS-DRILLING OIL&GAS-FIELD SERVICES BLDG-PAINT & ALLIED PRDS MACHINERY-FARM LEISURE-GAMING METAL PROD-DISTRIBUTOR FINANCE-PUBL INV FD-FRN POLLUTION CONTROL-EQUIP CHEMICALS-PLASTICS CHEMICALS-BASIC AEROSPACE/DEFENSE EQP FINANCE-CONSUMR/COMML AUTO MFRS-FOREIGN RETAIL-DEPARTMENT STORES TRUCKS & PARTS-HVY DUTY LEISURE-TOYS/GAMES/HOBBY TRANSPORT-AIR FREIGHT TRANSPORTATION-AIRLINE MACHINERY-CONST/MINING BANKS-FOREIGN RETAIL-HOME FURNISHINGS RETAIL/WHOLESALE-JEWELRY MEDIA-PERIODICALS LEISURE-SERVICES STEEL-PRODUCERS UTILITY-TELEPHONE MACHINERY-GEN INDUSTRIAL LEISURE-PRODUCTS BLDG-HAND TOOLS BLDG PROD-WOOD TRANSPORTATION-SVCS MEDIA-NEWSPAPERS INSURANCE-DIVERSIFIED LEISURE-MOVIES & RELATED FINANCE-INVESTMENT BKRS MEDIA-RADIO/TV ELECTRICAL-CONTROL INSTR RETAIL-MAJOR DISC CHAINS ELECTRICAL-EQUIPMENT FINANCIAL SERVICES-MISC COMPUTER SOFTW-EDUC/ENTR PAPER & PAPER PRODUCTS COMPUTER SOFTWARE-FIN CONSUMER PRODUCTS-MISC DIVERSIFIED OPERATIONS ELEC-MEASRNG INSTRUMENTS TELECOMMUNICATIONS-SVCS TELECOMMUNCTNS-CELLULR ELEC PRODUCTS-MISC RETAIL-RESTAURANTS TELECOMMUNICATIONS-EQUIP COMPUTER-GRAPHICS BLDG-CONSTR PRODS/MISC RETAIL-APPAREL/SHOE MEDICAL-GENERIC DRUGS RETAIL-CONSUMER ELECT HOUSEHOLD-AUDIO/VIDEO ELEC-LASER SYS/COMPONENT Thanks and good luck - together we stand! Marc Marc E Laniado marclaniado@msn.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Tim Fisher Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] M - Is this a rotation or a correction? Date: 19 Apr 1999 14:24:04 -0700 I am down to 2 stocks, HH and MCD (in a leveraged ESOP or I'd sell it too). I'll be sitting on my cash for a while at least. Looks like a correction in the making; the NAS can go down to at least 2225 before finding any support. I'd guess prior resistance at DOW 10k becomes support, but I think that will be violated tomorrow or shortly thereafter. The NAS has been correcting for 4 days; it's about time the DJI caught up. I haven't had this much cash since the October '97 debacle; it feels weird! On 03:02 PM 4/19/99 , Peter Newell Said: >I've missed some of the discussion on M. > >But I have to wonder if this is the start of a correction, Nasdaq - 4% on >heavy volume(again) and the Dow up. > >Looks like money looking for safe haven's to me. > >Or a rotation. If so where are we rotating to looks like a lot of junk, >except for some good oil co's. > >Opinions? > >Peter Newell > Tim Fisher Ore-Rock-On and Pacific Fishery Biologists WWW Sites Tim@OreRockOn.com WWW: http://OreRockOn.com See naked fish and rocks! - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Joe Barger" Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] source for the iandex graphs Date: 19 Apr 1999 17:03:34 -0700 Or you can try this: http://www.hgsinvestor.com/iandexms30.html joe > -----Original Message----- > From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com > [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of John Adair > Sent: Sunday, April 18, 1999 7:00 PM > To: canslim@lists.xmission.com > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] source for the iandex graphs > > > The spreadsheet and formulas were posted on the > http://nt-chat().telescan.com:8080/read/3623,38 by bobvincent@aol.com. bob > is a retired engineer and uses excel as a base . He posted the spreadsheet > on the wallstreetcity board but I bet he would post it here if asked. It > requires some work to figure it out he downloads 252 days of > data per > each of the 30 stocks in to a blank spreadsheet. He then > separates each of > the groups of 252 days by inserting one row between each. > then copies it > to the actual spread sheet. the rest is automatic. He uses > telescan data > feed. I Use quotes plus an export the data to askii and then go to excel > and open the file. I delimit the data and use comma separators. The data > is then usable in excel. > JOhn Adair > ----- Original Message ----- > From: Tim Fisher > To: > Sent: Sunday, April 18, 1999 5:26 PM > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Trailing Stops and SCH - Craig and Tom > > > > Where do you get the Iandex 30 chart from? I have looked and > haven't found > it. > > > > P.S. Re: stops I have been letting mine take me out, I was up 20%+ on > almost > > everything so have them set at 15% trailing stops & was taken out of the > drugs, > > AOL & GMST last week. I'm sitting on my cash until this > rotation business > has > > run its course. > > > > At 01:29 PM 4/18/99 -0500, you wrote: > > >I have been following the Iandex 30. It looks scary all 30 of > the sector > > >leaders are turning down. A lot of them are below the 17 day > Mov and some > > >below the 50 day mov. Ian says in his report that if the averages hit > their > > >17 day mov be alert for a correction. > > >On the other hand the dow and nasdaq are doing well, The a/d line is > > >turning up and the mutual fund index is still holding up. I > have a lot of > > >respect for Ian's work. > > >Does this concern anyone else. In the past the Iandex has been an early > > >warning and has been right. > > >John Adair > > > > > > Tim Fisher, 1995 President, Pacific Fishery Biologists > > Ore-ROCK-On Rockhounding Web Site > > PFB Information > > mailto:tim@OreRockOn.com > > WWW http://OreRockOn.com > > > > - > > > > > > > - > - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: [CANSLIM] "M", cyclicals, rotation, correction, etc. Date: 19 Apr 1999 23:11:58 -0400 OK, time for me to wade in with my unsolicited opinions. There's been a lot of talk about what exactly is a "cyclical" stock, and the info offered has been excellent, and points out the simple fact that there are numerous definitions for this tired and boring and often defensive group. They are manufacturers; they make consumer goods, the kind we will buy in good times or bad; they are old and well established cos, even quasi blue chips; they are names anyone would recognize; they trade at relatively low PEs at the best of times, even lower at the worst of times; they are economically sensitive, barely surviving in bad times and perking up earnings in good times when production and efficiencies soar. They usually have huge investments in factories, warehouses, distribution systems, marketing, advertising, etc. They often have high debt to service, which can be costly in a high interest environment, and sharply beneficial in a falling and low interest condition as they retire or refinance old debt. On correction vs rotation: I believe we clearly have a rotation going on, it is inevitable that this would also result in a correction when our leadership is largely made up of stocks trading with unbelievable market caps; mkt cap/sales ratios; trailing or projected PEs (if earnings are even in the distant forecast); short and poorly established earnings and growth histories; increasing competition; evolving technology, etc. Cyclicals are not the only game in town, oils have shot up dramatically over the short term resulting from crude oil prices up 50% from their 12 year lows just two months ago. There is a belief (expectation, hope, ??) that the latest promised production cuts will in fact happen. I have my doubts. Still, at the moment, it is a self fulling prophecy. Small caps have shown surprising strength, even today they managed to hold on and outperform Naz, and stay even with most of the other major indexes. But another few days like today and they too will drop, IMHO. VIX once again has been warning of a poor CANSLIM mkt, and jumped up again today. New highs/lows has been truly weird lately, strong showing on NYSE, very poor on Naz, probably understandable considering how far Naz slid last week. But lately NYSE indexes, new highs/lows, advance/decline stocks, and up/down volume has been tracking together far better than in many months. This suggests to me that breadth has greatly improved on NYSE. On Nasdaq, it has been just the opposite, so seeing how these two exchanges went in the opposite direction today is no surprise. The economic and direct financial cost of the war in Kosovo is clearly on the minds of much of the mkt, the longer term political implications are only just being realized. Europe's already weakened economy is being further threatened, hence the weak Euro (new low today). The US economy is strong and growing, but may be showing signs of once again slowing its growth. The internet may also be showing some signs of reaching, not saturation, but a level where the growth rates of the past few years cannot be sustained as competition for both existing and potentially new clientale becomes vicious and costly. Likewise, the sector has already showed the signs of consolidation, with acquisitions (esp for stock, not cash) occurring at very high premiums, even considering the already heady valuations. There has been talk for some time of the internet sector deflating, today's 10%, 15%, even 20% drops come as no surprise esp given recent weakness. Leadership has been shifting to oils, cyclicals, and, yes, even small caps, and out of technology in general and internet stocks in particular. Some of the older and better established tech stocks have recently given some reasons for this with weaker earnings and/or talk of slowing sales. Meanwhile, Asia is being perceived as coming off its bottom, even tho there has not yet been much done in the way of meaningful changes, just talk and proposals. That offers another direction entirely for investment dollars, and into a number of sectors, including tech. All of this contributes to momentum, which is not the same as "M", but certainly influences it. I see some of this shift as defensive in nature, and likely to change direction rapidly if the mkt turns around and heads higher. Some of it makes good sense, given the high valuations and degree of recovery from last fall. From past shifts into cyclicals that I have seen, I don't expect this to last for very long, but I'm not putting a time horizon on it. For long term investors, this is probably a good time to be looking for value more than momentum. For day/short term traders with the time to dedicate, it should be a time of high volatility and good profits if you're quick. For die hard CANSLIMers, I would place even greater emphasis on finding good bases, being selective, not being rushed or pressured into hasty decisions, mainly waiting for your time. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] New guy Date: 19 Apr 1999 23:35:01 -0400 Welcome, Chris, hope you enjoy the group. There's a wealth of knowledge and experience here for the asking. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html -----Original Message----- Hello. My name is Chris Hudson and I just subscribed to the list. I am currently reading O'Neil's book "How to Make Money In Stocks" and so I thought this group would be interesting to subscribe to. I also recently read "How I Made $2 Million In The Stock Market" by Nicolas Darvas and liked it very much. I look forward to some intersting discussions. -- Chris - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Marc Laniado" Subject: [CANSLIM] NAV and MAR Date: 20 Apr 1999 06:45:48 +0100 Do the bases in NAV and MAR warrant consideration in today's market? Marc E Laniado marclaniado@msn.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "mikelu" Subject: [CANSLIM] odd/mixed lots and splits Date: 19 Apr 1999 23:30:09 -0700 I just found out that if you have a sell-stop for, for example, 110 shares of MSFT when it splits 2-for-1, you will end up with a sell-stop for 200 shares. Schwab says this is the rule for both NYSE and Nasdaq. I was surprised when I didn't sell all of my shares of MSFT, SUNW, and AMGN, and was wondering how I had made so many mistakes entering my orders. Mike - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Johan Van Houtven Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] M - Is this a rotation or a correction? Date: 20 Apr 1999 11:41:19 +0200 Craig, You wrote: >Looks like a correction in the NASDAQ and tech stocks to me. The NASDAQ >move out of the recent base looks like "wedging" possibly. What do you mean exactly with the last sentence above? I can see on the chart that the NASDAQ formed a wedge and broke out from this formation. On 04/15 it penetrated support intraday, but closed OK. Next day was danger sign or shakeout. Yesterday, monday 04/19 confirmed it was a danger sign instead of a shakeout. The NASDAQ in now positioned near its lower mid-term channel trendline. The next few days will potentially be exciting days (will or won't we break this trendline and does it matter :) >Leaders like >MSFT and SUNW that broke out lately have collapsed back into their base - >bad sign. DELL nearing the 200SMA. CSCO, INTC, SUNW, YHOO, LU, WCOM broke below the 50SMA. AOL bounced of the 50SMA (for now). If these big cap techs aren't participating it is hard for the NASDAQ to take a leadership role. And some of the above have been showing weakness for several weeks now. There are many failed or nearly failed break-ous in the leadership group - the internets now. If one did not have tight stops one would have lost much of one's profit or one would have a loss already in many of the internet stocks. People who bought at the top are sitting are sitting on losses of 50%+ on many internet stocks. All of this points towards a correction to me. >Rotation? Vicious moving into the cyclicals and maybe oils. >The old leadership is looking really sick. Looking for new leadership. !GAX (Gaming index, with CIR, STN and MGG hitting new highs), !OSX (oils index), XLI (Industrials) and Utilities doing OK. To me that doesn't look like hot-rod leadership from a CANSLIM viewpoint. But I haven't been around long enough to speak from experience. >Doesn't look like a Canslim'r market. Distribution on the NAS on 04/07, >04/12, 04/13, 04/14 and 04/15 was pretty impressive. Indeed. >Advance/declines and >new highs/lows looking better and better weirdly enough - maybe another >sign of rotation (?). Some of us on the list have wondered about that. Has anyone looked for and found an explanation? On Monday NAZ declining volume was extremely high compared to last few months. Almost as high as on 10/08, the low of the Autumn correction/bear market. >Valuations long out of whack, maybe time to pay the >piper for some of these nut stocks. A model portfolio which I have been >tracking was up 60% YTD a couple of weeks ago. At the moment it is up 14%. > This portfolio has 14 stocks, 5 of which are internet, and most of the >rest are technology related. Could you share this portfolio? Looking at the new IandexMS30 I'd say we are in a correction already! Take a look at the stocks that make up the IandexMS30: AOL AIG AMGN AMAT BGEN CMB CSCO KO COST DELL EMC GE G HD INTC KSS LOW LU WCOM MRK MSFT PFE PG PVN SWY SCH SLR GPS TWX WMT Not pretty... IMHO we can already say that the IandexMS30 was a useful indicator as it signaled a possible correction a few days ago. >People are going to be shaken a bit after >today. Will take a while to rebuild confidence. People will be shifing to >value and bonds IMO. Isn't it very interesting to see how hard it is to break the super bull attitude of last few months. Look at this list. Look at how we said a few days ago that only a fool would short the leaders. And at that time it felt perfectly right (and still does). From a psychological standpoint the markets will always do the same thing. The markets rise to far and will correct to far. Personally I find this very comforting, as it means that we will probably always enjoy times to make good money. (One must however always be careful to not become complacent. A x year bear market may and probably will happen a some point in the future. But even after that bear market the sun will most probably starting shining again on the market in ways we might currently not even be able to imagine... This concluded todays pep talk. ;^)) >Warning, there is an awful lot of opinion in the above paragraph and I am >frequently wrong when expressing opinion. The same is true for my reply. >The distribution on the chart, >the collapse of the leaders, the A/D line and new highs/new lows are facts. > Cyclical stocks breaking out over the last 3 weeks is also fact. As is >climactic activity in several NAS leaders. Thanks for another most useful and fascinating post, Craig. For Walter Stock: If I remember correctly Walter, last Autumn you made good money during the 20% market correction. Are you already positioned for this potential correction? -- Johan Van Houtven - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] odd/mixed lots and splits Date: 20 Apr 1999 06:23:08 -0400 News to me. I have seen Schwab have a habit of saying something is a "rule" when it actually is a "house rule". All full service firms I ever dealt with would automatically adjust an open order from 110 shares to 220 shares. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html -----Original Message----- I just found out that if you have a sell-stop for, for example, 110 shares of MSFT when it splits 2-for-1, you will end up with a sell-stop for 200 shares. Schwab says this is the rule for both NYSE and Nasdaq. I was surprised when I didn't sell all of my shares of MSFT, SUNW, and AMGN, and was wondering how I had made so many mistakes entering my orders. Mike - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] NAV and MAR Date: 20 Apr 1999 07:08:22 -0400 Marc, To my eye, Navistar is more of a lower left upper right chart. I don't see much of a base there. Marriott is already up about 18% from a short base, too extended for a fresh buy. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html -----Original Message----- Do the bases in NAV and MAR warrant consideration in today's market? Marc E Laniado marclaniado@msn.com - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Ronald J. Russell, Jr." Subject: [CANSLIM] Weekly Stock List - April 16, 1999 - Condensed Version Date: 19 Apr 1999 22:34:30 -0400 Hi All, We dropped a few to 163 this past week. After today, I expect we will drop even more for next week's list. As a reminder, the selection criteria are: EPS > 69 RS > 84 GRS > 59 A/D = "A" or "B" CLOSE > 10.00 30 Day ADV > 75,000 Trade well, Ron Symbol EPS RS GRS ERG A/D Close 30 ADV ABDR 98 94 86 278 A $ 73.250 161,947 ADBE 92 88 76 256 A $ 59.440 971,473 ADCT 95 89 94 278 A $ 43.500 1,633,467 AEOSD 99 94 91 284 A $ 81.130 399,897 AGN 81 92 74 247 B $ 84.750 399,163 AGPH 72 90 86 248 A $ 57.380 544,510 AHAA 72 96 92 260 A $ 28.000 243,650 ALNT 77 90 77 244 A $ 46.690 195,690 ALSI 99 92 88 279 A $ 31.630 289,050 ALTR 93 93 92 278 A $ 73.630 2,267,770 AMGN 93 94 86 273 A $ 66.810 4,835,190 ANF 99 95 91 285 A $ 89.750 535,220 AOL 77 99 99 275 A $ 139.750 25,593,926 ASND 97 92 94 283 A $ 89.000 4,146,336 ASTE 80 94 63 237 A $ 35.750 106,773 AT 79 90 77 246 A $ 71.500 747,443 ATI 91 91 92 274 A $ 94.130 2,323,900 AXP 80 86 89 255 A $ 129.880 1,760,533 BBBY 97 86 73 256 A $ 36.750 1,681,447 BBY 74 96 95 265 B $ 52.190 1,837,070 BGF 95 86 93 274 A $ 31.440 304,310 BID 76 92 73 241 A $ 38.000 290,750 BJ 87 89 83 259 B $ 27.130 376,483 BSX 78 86 74 238 A $ 36.690 2,048,493 BSYS 88 86 72 246 A $ 55.000 164,377 BXM 81 94 86 261 A $ 75.250 186,850 CHCS 86 89 91 266 A $ 22.690 102,237 CLE 88 91 90 269 A $ 31.750 602,607 CLFY 97 89 76 262 B $ 20.000 445,800 CMB 71 87 84 242 B $ 86.060 3,270,277 CMGI 77 99 98 274 A $ 260.880 4,805,170 COF 87 91 89 267 A $ 164.000 493,837 CPRT 94 96 86 276 B $ 23.630 177,023 CREE 99 96 92 287 A $ 45.750 223,313 CSCO 97 92 94 283 A $ 105.690 12,184,634 CSN 82 90 77 249 B $ 20.380 478,077 DELL 99 88 67 254 A $ 38.250 34,788,572 DH 88 89 83 260 B $ 68.250 1,570,340 DHR 88 92 61 241 A $ 65.250 354,673 DMMC 95 88 87 270 B $ 20.880 142,013 DSP 93 93 92 278 A $ 21.940 530,873 EFII 96 95 76 267 A $ 45.940 941,707 EMC 97 94 71 262 A $ 107.250 4,781,254 ESRX 96 91 62 249 A $ 75.130 338,367 EUSA 89 93 83 265 A $ 36.000 171,717 EXPD 91 87 74 252 B $ 56.880 141,843 FDC 74 88 89 251 B $ 41.380 1,599,097 FLEX 99 94 87 280 A $ 47.250 958,780 FM 97 89 77 263 A $ 25.440 174,540 FNDTF 80 97 93 270 A $ 39.130 238,590 FON 76 91 95 262 B $ 100.000 1,168,117 FORE 85 88 94 267 B $ 24.810 6,601,370 FOSL 91 86 63 240 A $ 28.880 119,743 FRO 71 94 95 260 B $ 53.060 2,349,600 GCO 89 89 90 268 B $ 11.380 189,197 GDT 82 85 74 241 A $ 52.630 1,544,853 GEOC 84 97 76 257 A $ 52.690 528,030 GICOF 98 97 95 290 A $ 18.000 138,430 GILTF 97 86 94 277 A $ 58.630 194,767 GLC 94 86 73 253 A $ 51.810 166,730 GNSS 84 94 92 270 A $ 23.880 494,427 GPS 96 93 91 280 A $ 68.250 1,597,697 GUC 93 91 91 275 A $ 75.500 765,063 HAS 84 88 75 247 B $ 32.630 999,980 HAUP 77 88 81 246 A $ 12.750 81,973 HD 95 89 60 244 A $ 63.310 3,404,360 HDI 94 92 73 259 A $ 62.630 520,190 HLYW 76 88 73 237 B $ 24.000 1,183,853 IBI 86 95 91 272 A $ 48.250 423,837 IFIN 87 88 89 264 B $ 36.750 87,930 INSS 99 89 72 260 A $ 39.000 449,617 ISCA 90 93 85 268 A $ 55.310 78,127 ITGI 98 94 86 278 A $ 63.000 112,857 JAKK 99 97 75 271 A $ 23.190 180,207 JBL 81 95 87 263 A $ 44.310 1,075,343 JEF 80 86 97 263 B $ 55.750 140,887 KSWS 77 98 90 265 A $ 31.630 322,870 LEVL 88 92 92 272 B $ 46.810 1,496,317 LIN 92 90 78 260 B $ 48.940 255,947 LLTC 79 93 92 264 A $ 59.750 1,431,530 LM 86 86 97 269 A $ 37.000 184,373 LOW 93 90 60 243 B $ 58.000 1,431,427 LUV 91 91 69 251 B $ 32.750 1,530,677 LXK 97 91 81 269 A $ 108.000 692,450 MAR 90 85 80 255 B $ 39.500 497,037 MARG 94 96 86 276 A $ 20.000 163,590 MCD 76 85 77 238 A $ 44.440 3,636,633 MCRL 96 92 92 280 A $ 60.130 185,717 MERQ 76 86 76 238 A $ 27.380 720,093 MMCN 84 87 92 263 A $ 22.750 624,640 MNMD 98 94 74 266 A $ 113.810 211,150 MSFT 99 91 96 286 A $ 86.630 30,587,892 MSPG 77 97 99 273 B $ 101.560 1,317,970 MXIM 89 92 92 273 A $ 60.130 1,498,847 NAV 94 92 69 255 A $ 43.440 624,217 NDB 80 99 97 276 B $ 50.130 1,660,720 NEON 80 97 76 253 B $ 54.500 1,138,303 NOK 97 94 94 285 A $ 75.880 3,153,287 NOVL 77 93 94 264 B $ 22.130 7,270,172 NPCI 76 90 77 243 B $ 16.250 139,380 NSOL 84 98 98 280 A $ 89.750 3,636,647 NT 88 87 94 269 B $ 68.690 1,953,743 NTAP 98 96 71 265 A $ 56.000 1,094,753 OCLI 89 98 68 255 B $ 51.750 145,150 OMC 91 91 80 262 A $ 75.190 700,437 ORBK 90 89 82 261 A $ 49.130 111,250 OSSI 89 92 77 258 A $ 35.940 668,443 OSTE 73 95 74 242 A $ 36.380 167,777 PCLE 75 92 75 242 A $ 53.530 225,533 PEGS 80 94 86 260 B $ 39.000 150,673 PHCC 98 97 62 257 B $ 54.940 110,367 PKN 77 87 68 232 B $ 103.750 218,787 PKX 90 94 66 250 B $ 28.000 572,110 PLCE 99 98 91 288 A $ 34.130 309,503 PLCM 77 94 94 265 A $ 29.810 1,014,913 PLXS 98 87 92 277 B $ 32.250 76,687 POS 88 92 80 260 A $ 86.500 147,417 POWI 72 96 87 255 B $ 31.630 228,913 PROG 85 91 87 263 B $ 13.500 91,880 PSUN 93 89 91 273 A $ 35.880 455,543 PVN 98 96 89 283 A $ 119.250 852,657 QLGC 98 95 92 285 A $ 68.630 480,293 RFMD 80 99 91 270 A $ 55.250 699,623 RTRSY 75 90 86 251 A $ 88.380 202,740 SANM 97 89 87 273 A $ 68.630 832,807 SBUX 96 88 77 261 A $ 31.940 1,809,977 SCAI 95 97 93 285 A $ 61.630 355,350 SCH 97 99 97 293 A $ 114.810 3,680,533 SDLI 92 99 92 283 A $ 100.000 315,130 SLR 96 94 91 281 A $ 50.190 1,462,470 SNS 94 87 71 252 A $ 70.750 511,313 SNTC 70 93 70 233 B $ 73.280 144,427 SONC 91 87 77 255 A $ 27.130 122,447 SORC 72 93 86 251 A $ 12.940 98,437 SUNW 94 95 67 256 A $ 54.940 16,303,244 SWS 77 94 97 268 A $ 40.500 291,460 SYKE 99 85 86 270 A $ 27.880 278,720 TAGS 97 96 70 263 A $ 46.630 129,193 TAN 73 89 65 227 B $ 65.380 703,870 TCAT 85 92 96 273 A $ 47.000 276,863 TIF 90 95 90 275 A $ 81.750 251,837 TJX 93 86 91 270 B $ 32.880 1,122,740 TLAB 98 91 94 283 A $ 105.810 2,651,220 TMPW 88 97 80 265 A $ 75.250 598,933 TRK 87 93 85 265 B $ 40.000 115,103 TSFW 99 90 76 265 A $ 21.060 507,507 TVGIA 96 97 89 282 A $ 41.630 223,353 UNPH 96 96 94 286 A $ 126.810 840,923 USF 93 87 62 242 B $ 30.810 3,113,310 USFC 88 85 61 234 B $ 35.750 197,327 UTX 91 91 71 253 B $ 142.000 883,277 VISX 99 99 97 295 A $ 126.000 1,068,540 VOD 96 87 92 275 A $ 180.690 534,073 VRTS 99 92 76 267 A $ 80.750 795,937 VTSS 97 86 92 275 A $ 45.000 1,755,113 WAT 98 94 79 271 A $ 107.630 119,100 WCOM 82 91 95 268 B $ 84.750 12,205,892 WMT 87 89 83 259 B $ 95.000 4,330,544 WTSLA 91 86 91 268 A $ 36.970 122,513 XLNX 79 96 92 267 A $ 48.060 3,343,836 XYLN 75 95 94 264 A $ 36.880 916,247 YHOO 77 99 99 275 A $ 189.190 8,190,543 ZQK 96 95 70 261 A $ 42.380 116,647 - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: musicant.pacbell.net@mail-gw6.pacbell.net (Dan Musicant) Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] M - Is this a rotation or a correction? Date: 20 Apr 1999 02:47:51 GMT On Mon, 19 Apr 1999 15:46:11 -0400, you wrote: :Looks like a correction in the NASDAQ and tech stocks to me. The NASDAQ :move out of the recent base looks like "wedging" possibly. Leaders like :MSFT and SUNW that broke out lately have collapsed back into their base = - :bad sign. Rotation? Vicious moving into the cyclicals and maybe oils. :The old leadership is looking really sick. Looking for new leadership. :Doesn't look like a Canslim'r market. Distribution on the NAS on 04/07, :04/12, 04/13, 04/14 and 04/15 was pretty impressive. Advance/declines = and :new highs/lows looking better and better weirdly enough - maybe another :sign of rotation (?). Valuations long out of whack, maybe time to pay = the :piper for some of these nut stocks. A model portfolio which I have been :tracking was up 60% YTD a couple of weeks ago. At the moment it is up = 14%. : This portfolio has 14 stocks, 5 of which are internet, and most of the :rest are technology related. People are going to be shaken a bit after :today. Will take a while to rebuild confidence. People will be shifing= to :value and bonds IMO. An analyst on NBR on PBS tonight predicted a weakening bond market over the next few months -- yields coming down, and said that money will therefore not shift into bonds. He sees equities as the place to be. Of course, he's with a bullish group, and they are 85% in stocks, 5% in cash and the rest in bonds (I think).=20 Dan : :Warning, there is an awful lot of opinion in the above paragraph and I = am :frequently wrong when expressing opinion. The distribution on the = chart, :the collapse of the leaders, the A/D line and new highs/new lows are = facts. : Cyclical stocks breaking out over the last 3 weeks is also fact. As is :climactic activity in several NAS leaders. : :Best Regards, :Craig : :At 03:02 PM 4/19/99 -0700, you wrote: :>I've missed some of the discussion on M. :> :>But I have to wonder if this is the start of a correction, Nasdaq - 4% = on :>heavy volume(again) and the Dow up. :> :>Looks like money looking for safe haven's to me. :> :>Or a rotation. If so where are we rotating to looks like a lot of = junk, :>except for some good oil co's. :> :>Opinions? :> :>Peter Newell :> :> :>- :> :> : :- : - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Craig Griffin Subject: [CANSLIM] "Model Portfolio" Date: 20 Apr 1999 10:02:54 -0400 Johan, You wrote: >>Valuations long out of whack, maybe time to pay the >>piper for some of these nut stocks. A model portfolio which I have been >>tracking was up 60% YTD a couple of weeks ago. At the moment it is up 14%. >> This portfolio has 14 stocks, 5 of which are internet, and most of the >>rest are technology related. > >Could you share this portfolio? Sure. MSFT SUNW NTBK CMGI FDX HD MRK SBUX ESRX BBY AOL TXN EGRP INKT This imaginary portfolio was "purchased" on breakouts and used 20% margin. Roughly equal amounts of starting capital was placed in each stock. At one point it was up about 60-65% YTD (in the low 60's), and as of the current moment it is up 10.53% on my Yahoo Portfolio page. These are all stocks I actually bought on the breakouts and I have sold each of them for one reason or another. I kept the "portfolio" to track the performance of "buy and hold" vs the trading I have done. It is amazing how volatile this portfolio has been (I thought the larger - non-internet stocks in there would provide more "ballast" than they did). Best Regards, Craig - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Craig Griffin Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] M - Is this a rotation or a correction? Date: 20 Apr 1999 10:31:22 -0400 Johan, >You wrote: >>Looks like a correction in the NASDAQ and tech stocks to me. The NASDAQ >>move out of the recent base looks like "wedging" possibly. > >What do you mean exactly with the last sentence above? > Probably a mis-read of the chart. But, what I was seeing, was on the NAS (!COMP), from 4/5 to 4/13, a rising wedge coming out of the NAS base formation. It actually may be more of a rising flag, than a wedge. Rising flags are less reliably bearish than is a rising wedge in my experience. O'Neil said in one of the classes I attended that he looks for rising wedges on stocks that have just broken out as a danger sign in combination with price volume action. He showed a chart and said that the stock was "wedging" out of its base. In the book "Technical Analysis of the Futures Markets", John Murphy says "Whether the wedge appears in the middle or the end of a market move, the market analyst should always be guided by the general maxim that a 'rising wedge is bearish and a falling wedge is bullish'" (pg 162, Chapter 6, "Continuation Patterns"). Best Regards, Craig - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Johan Van Houtven Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] M - Is this a rotation or a correction? Date: 20 Apr 1999 16:54:47 +0200 >An analyst on NBR on PBS tonight predicted a weakening bond market over >the next few months -- yields coming down, and said that money will >therefore not shift into bonds. He sees equities as the place to be. Of >course, he's with a bullish group, and they are 85% in stocks, 5% in >cash and the rest in bonds (I think). > >Dan If interest rates stay low, we will almost certainly continue to enjoy the TINA effect. -- Johan Van Houtven - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Peter Newell" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] M - Is this a rotation or a correction? IBD Investors Corner Date: 20 Apr 1999 11:04:43 -0700 If you get this they didn't sound to happy. Haven't read paper yet. Peter Newell - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: rolatzi Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] odd/mixed lots and splits Date: 20 Apr 1999 08:14:07 -0700 (PDT) Mike, The same thing happened to me about 2 weeks ago with another stock which split 3 for 2. I called Fidelity on it and they accomodated me and didn't even mention such a rule, though I have no doubt that it exists based on both of our experiences. Ciao, rolatzi --- mikelu wrote: > I just found out that if you have a sell-stop for, for > example, 110 shares > of MSFT when it splits 2-for-1, you will end up with a > sell-stop for 200 > shares. Schwab says this is the rule for both NYSE and Nasdaq. > > I was surprised when I didn't sell all of my shares of MSFT, > SUNW, and AMGN, > and was wondering how I had made so many mistakes entering my > orders. > > Mike > > > - > > _________________________________________________________ Do You Yahoo!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Tim Fisher Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] odd/mixed lots and splits Date: 20 Apr 1999 08:24:13 -0700 Never heard of this. My split shares have always been sold along with the original shares from my Schwab sell stop orders. At 11:30 PM 4/19/99 -0700, you wrote: >I just found out that if you have a sell-stop for, for example, 110 shares >of MSFT when it splits 2-for-1, you will end up with a sell-stop for 200 >shares. Schwab says this is the rule for both NYSE and Nasdaq. > >I was surprised when I didn't sell all of my shares of MSFT, SUNW, and AMGN, >and was wondering how I had made so many mistakes entering my orders. > >Mike > Tim Fisher, 1995 President, Pacific Fishery Biologists Ore-ROCK-On Rockhounding Web Site PFB Information mailto:tim@OreRockOn.com WWW http://OreRockOn.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: mckeen@ix.netcom.com Subject: [CANSLIM] New Guy Date: 20 Apr 1999 11:41:54 -0500 (CDT) Welcome Chris. Feel free to question members' ideas and to share your thoughts. Regards, Mary - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Tim Fisher Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] source for the iandex graphs Date: 20 Apr 1999 12:11:56 -0700 Too bad this site is updated weekly instead of daily. Any idea who Ron Brown is? There isn't anything there to identify the owner and I got his name off the whois server at Networks Associates. On 05:03 PM 4/19/99 , Joe Barger Said: >Or you can try this: > >http://www.hgsinvestor.com/iandexms30.html > > >joe > Tim Fisher Ore-Rock-On and Pacific Fishery Biologists WWW Sites Tim@OreRockOn.com WWW: http://OreRockOn.com See naked fish and rocks! - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Johan Van Houtven Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] M - Is this a rotation or a correction? IBD Date: 20 Apr 1999 21:24:21 +0200 At 11:04 AM 4/20/99 -0700, you wrote: >If you get this they didn't sound to happy. Haven't read paper yet. > >Peter Newell INVESTORS CORNER Tech Stock Sell-Off Spreads Into The Broader Market Stocks sold off across the board Monday, aborting a 271-point rally in the Dow Jones industrials and routing the Nasdaq composite and S&P 500 indexes. Activity on the New York Stock Exchange swelled 20% to 1.2 billion shares. Trading on the Nasdaq Stock Market also increased to 1.2 billion. The Dow, which reached an intraday high of 10,765, retreated to close the day off 53.36 points, or 0.5%, to 10,440.53. The Nasdaq composite tumbled 138.43 points, or 5.5%, to 2345.61. I N V E S T O R ' S C O R N E R The shift of dollars toward cyclical stocks continued to assert itself. The picture was evident in IBD's industry groups. All 10 of Monday's top-performing groups were cyclical industries. The top four came from the bottom half of IBD's 197 industry groups. IBD ranks each group according to its six-month price performance, with No. 1 being the best performer and No. 197 being the worst. The hardest hit groups were the former stars of the market: the Internet, computer software, brokerage and telecom groups. (See Investor's Business Daily Industry Prices, Page A21.) Big-cap status was not enough to spare the tech leaders. America Online, the biggest Internet service provider, fell 17% on more than double average volume. Microsoft dropped 6.5%, Lucent Technologies 8.6%, Yahoo 13.5% and Qualcomm 12.5%. Distribution continued to hit the retail sector as well. Wal-Mart declined 5.5% to 89 3/4 on twice its usual trade. Tucker Anthony market analyst Harry Laubscher thinks the blue chips took their cues from the over-the-counter market. When techs failed to shake off last week's disappointing news from Compaq, the industrials turned south as well. The Dow's high-volume reversal was especially ominous. ''Techs are oversold on a short-term basis, but we're telling people that something wicked is coming our way,'' Laubscher said. ''We recommend selling into all periods of strength.'' Signs of trouble are writ large in individual stock charts as well as the indexes. Laubscher has noticed a ''plethora of spikes or needles,'' extreme, short-lived price highs followed by sell-offs. ''Historically, they almost always result in collapses,'' Laubscher said. ''I see a stair-step pattern forming to the downside. You will get little bounces. If you're a nimble enough trader, you can make money here.'' The speed of the sell-off no doubt caught many investors off guard. In the view of Don Hays, chief strategist at Wheat First Union, that's left many people holding stocks with large losses. These weak holders now will be reluctant to sell until the pain forces them into capitulation. ''The market opened the trap door today,'' Hays said. ''It drops these hot stocks so much, there are people who are now saying their stocks have dropped too much to sell.'' As Hays sees it, the broad market has been in a bear since April 1998. That's when the small-cap Russell 2000 topped. He turned bullish on Sept. 7, in response to the market sell-off and a drop in interest rates. But in mid-February Hays began turning more cautious. Three weeks ago, his asset allocation model shifted to 35% stocks, 40% bonds and 25% cash, its most defensive deployment since before the 1987 crash. That small- to mid-cap bear market that began in April 1998 now is spreading to large-cap stocks, Hays says. He called Monday's intraday high on the Dow ''the peak in the big blue chips.'' However, Hays' bear market is not implying an economic recession. ''The market is telegraphing a profits-recession. I don't think the U.S. economy is going into recession, but it is going to slow down. Cheap rates, mortgage refinancing and very cheap oil prices all played to make the first quarter look abnormally good. But those one-time factors we believe will fall by the wayside.'' As is often the case in sell-offs, Monday's downturn occurred in the absence of major economic news or any other obvious trigger. ''People always look for current news, but the very significant trends start before the news of the cause is out. The market looks ahead at least six months,'' Hays said. So what could the market be forecasting? By Hays' reckoning, the culprits are the prospects for a slowing U.S. economy, resurfacing of Asian-Pacific and Latin American economic problems, and the war in Kosovo. (C) Copyright 1999 Investors Business Daily, Inc. Johan - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Connie Mack Rea Subject: [CANSLIM] DELL [Connie Mack] Date: 20 Apr 1999 16:11:23 -0400 DELL has acted pretty well today and proved a nice trade. However, it also looks good as a longer term buy--as I mentioned yesterday. It has hit its 200-day twice recently--last October and a day or so ago. 35.5 or so is the 200-day line. Entry here looks relatively safe. I bought DELL yesterday as I said when it reached 36. It was sold today at 37.62. Looking back on today's action, I decided to re-buy at 37.75. The 200-day must hold or all bets are off. Connie Mack - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Marc Laniado" Subject: Fw: [CANSLIM] M - Is this a rotation or a correction? IBD Investors Corner Date: 20 Apr 1999 22:52:30 +0100 Dear Johan, Where do you manage to get investor's corner on line? Thanks, Marc Marc E Laniado marclaniado@msn.com -----Original Message----- Corner >At 11:04 AM 4/20/99 -0700, you wrote: >>If you get this they didn't sound to happy. Haven't read paper yet. >> >>Peter Newell > >INVESTORS CORNER > >Tech Stock Sell-Off Spreads Into The Broader Market > >Date: 4/20/99 Author: Loren Fleckenstein > >Stocks sold off across the board Monday, aborting a 271-point rally in the >Dow Jones industrials and routing the Nasdaq composite and S&P 500 indexes. > >Activity on the New York Stock Exchange swelled 20% to 1.2 billion shares. >Trading on the Nasdaq Stock Market also increased to 1.2 billion. The Dow, >which reached an intraday high of 10,765, retreated to close the day off >53.36 points, or 0.5%, to 10,440.53. The Nasdaq composite tumbled 138.43 >points, or 5.5%, to 2345.61. > >I N V E S T O R ' S C O R N E R > >The shift of dollars toward cyclical stocks continued to assert itself. The >picture was evident in IBD's industry groups. All 10 of Monday's >top-performing groups were cyclical industries. The top four came from the >bottom half of IBD's 197 industry groups. IBD ranks each group according to >its six-month price performance, with No. 1 being the best performer and >No. 197 being the worst. > >The hardest hit groups were the former stars of the market: the Internet, >computer software, brokerage and telecom groups. (See Investor's Business >Daily Industry Prices, Page A21.) > >Big-cap status was not enough to spare the tech leaders. America Online, >the biggest Internet service provider, fell 17% on more than double average >volume. Microsoft dropped 6.5%, Lucent Technologies 8.6%, Yahoo 13.5% and >Qualcomm 12.5%. Distribution continued to hit the retail sector as well. >Wal-Mart declined 5.5% to 89 3/4 on twice its usual trade. > >Tucker Anthony market analyst Harry Laubscher thinks the blue chips took >their cues from the over-the-counter market. When techs failed to shake off >last week's disappointing news from Compaq, the industrials turned south as >well. > >The Dow's high-volume reversal was especially ominous. > >''Techs are oversold on a short-term basis, but we're telling people that >something wicked is coming our way,'' Laubscher said. ''We recommend >selling into all periods of strength.'' > >Signs of trouble are writ large in individual stock charts as well as the >indexes. Laubscher has noticed a ''plethora of spikes or needles,'' >extreme, short-lived price highs followed by sell-offs. ''Historically, >they almost always result in collapses,'' Laubscher said. > >''I see a stair-step pattern forming to the downside. You will get little >bounces. If you're a nimble enough trader, you can make money here.'' > >The speed of the sell-off no doubt caught many investors off guard. In the >view of Don Hays, chief strategist at Wheat First Union, that's left many >people holding stocks with large losses. These weak holders now will be >reluctant to sell until the pain forces them into capitulation. > >''The market opened the trap door today,'' Hays said. ''It drops these hot >stocks so much, there are people who are now saying their stocks have >dropped too much to sell.'' > >As Hays sees it, the broad market has been in a bear since April 1998. >That's when the small-cap Russell 2000 topped. He turned bullish on Sept. >7, in response to the market sell-off and a drop in interest rates. But in >mid-February Hays began turning more cautious. Three weeks ago, his asset >allocation model shifted to 35% stocks, 40% bonds and 25% cash, its most >defensive deployment since before the 1987 crash. > >That small- to mid-cap bear market that began in April 1998 now is >spreading to large-cap stocks, Hays says. He called Monday's intraday high >on the Dow ''the peak in the big blue chips.'' > >However, Hays' bear market is not implying an economic recession. ''The >market is telegraphing a profits-recession. I don't think the U.S. economy >is going into recession, but it is going to slow down. Cheap rates, >mortgage refinancing and very cheap oil prices all played to make the first >quarter look abnormally good. But those one-time factors we believe will >fall by the wayside.'' > >As is often the case in sell-offs, Monday's downturn occurred in the >absence of major economic news or any other obvious trigger. > >''People always look for current news, but the very significant trends >start before the news of the cause is out. The market looks ahead at least >six months,'' Hays said. > >So what could the market be forecasting? By Hays' reckoning, the culprits >are the prospects for a slowing U.S. economy, resurfacing of Asian-Pacific >and Latin American economic problems, and the war in Kosovo. > > >(C) Copyright 1999 Investors Business Daily, Inc. > > > >Johan > > > > > > >- > > - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Dave Cameron Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] odd/mixed lots and splits Date: 20 Apr 1999 21:52:30 -0500 Mike, I've never had that problem with Burke, Christensen, & Lewis (www.bclnet.com). In fact, I owned AMGN, but I had bought 100 shares - pre-split. So, my stop loss got converted to 200. Guess its not a fair comparison. BTW, regarding AMGN: I got stopped out around 69 - and I see it bounced back big-time today on reported earnings. Dave mikelu wrote: > > I just found out that if you have a sell-stop for, for example, 110 shares > of MSFT when it splits 2-for-1, you will end up with a sell-stop for 200 > shares. Schwab says this is the rule for both NYSE and Nasdaq. > > I was surprised when I didn't sell all of my shares of MSFT, SUNW, and AMGN, > and was wondering how I had made so many mistakes entering my orders. > > Mike > > - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Dave Cameron Subject: [CANSLIM] ADCT Date: 20 Apr 1999 21:57:06 -0500 I'm curious as to where people would have put a stop loss for ADCT. I bought in at the recent breakout - and got hit hard on Monday when it dropped 6. Ended up selling at a 20% loss instead of the recommended 7% since it dropped from 43 to 37 in about 2 minutes. Should I have put a stop above 43 - or was this one just one of those things. On a similar vein, I have a hard time sticking to O'Neil's stop loss rules. I end up with stocks that gap down quickly - and end up at a higher loss. Am I unique in this respect? Thanks, Dave Cameron dfcameron@ameritech.net - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Dave Cameron Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] M - Is this a rotation or a correction? IBD Date: 20 Apr 1999 22:02:34 -0500 Johan Van Houtven wrote: > > As Hays sees it, the broad market has been in a bear since April 1998. > That's when the small-cap Russell 2000 topped. He turned bullish on Sept. > 7, in response to the market sell-off and a drop in interest rates. But in > mid-February Hays began turning more cautious. Three weeks ago, his asset > allocation model shifted to 35% stocks, 40% bonds and 25% cash, its most > defensive deployment since before the 1987 crash. > Geee.... this guy (Don Hays) and Tom Worley have a big point of agreement here. Actually, one thing I learned is that the major indices are not really a good indicator of "M" for me. I need to look at breadth. I lost money last year because "M" kept signaling strength via SPX and DJIA - but more stocks were down than up. Dave Cameron dfcameron@ameritech.net - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] M - Is this a rotation or a correction? IBD Investors Corner Date: 20 Apr 1999 23:58:37 -0400 Yeah, Dave, but the real difference is that Hays gets paid for his opinions, while mine are freely given and worth every nickle paid for them. It bothers me that recent comments from WON suggest breadth is no longer important to him in measuring "M". I keep wondering if I am missing something significant. But until I figure it out, I plan to stay with more traditional measurement tools like breadth; adv/decline; new highs/lows, etc. It's about time something gets a good dialogue going in this group on "M" and how best to measure, weigh and understand it in these mkt conditions. In any case, I strongly believe you need to move in with and marry the index (or indexes) that best mirror the type of investing you are doing. I am still concentrating on small caps, so the Russell 2000 works best for me despite the lack of detail available. If you are investing across the board regardless of size, sector, etc, then the S&P500 may work well. If you are concentrating in a particular sector, find an index of that sector. Learn it's behaviour well, and the factors that influence it primarily. Don't completely ignore the rest of the mkt, but realize that it's more noise than helpful. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html -----Original Message----- correction? IBD Investors Corner Johan Van Houtven wrote: > > As Hays sees it, the broad market has been in a bear since April 1998. > That's when the small-cap Russell 2000 topped. He turned bullish on Sept. > 7, in response to the market sell-off and a drop in interest rates. But in > mid-February Hays began turning more cautious. Three weeks ago, his asset > allocation model shifted to 35% stocks, 40% bonds and 25% cash, its most > defensive deployment since before the 1987 crash. > Geee.... this guy (Don Hays) and Tom Worley have a big point of agreement here. Actually, one thing I learned is that the major indices are not really a good indicator of "M" for me. I need to look at breadth. I lost money last year because "M" kept signaling strength via SPX and DJIA - but more stocks were down than up. Dave Cameron dfcameron@ameritech.net - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] ADCT Date: 21 Apr 1999 00:13:05 -0400 Dave, The chart basically looks to me like a LLUR (lower left upper right) more than any other traditional pattern. I probably would have drawn some lines along the lows and highs to establish the trading range, esp since it's been more volatile than the "normal" LLUR stocks. Using this, you might have simply bailed out when it broke thru the upper side of "its" "normal" trading range around 50 or so. Or you might have gotten greedy and hung in there, in which case you might have been out around 45 when it began to violate its lower trading range line. I don't think your entry point was bad, makes sense to me. However, what chart pattern were you seeing at the time; what target did you set; and what stop (mental or actual) did you establish at entry? And considering the lack of recovery today on heavy volume, I can't disagree with your decision to exit. The potential for a further drop is large, IMHO. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html -----Original Message----- I'm curious as to where people would have put a stop loss for ADCT. I bought in at the recent breakout - and got hit hard on Monday when it dropped 6. Ended up selling at a 20% loss instead of the recommended 7% since it dropped from 43 to 37 in about 2 minutes. Should I have put a stop above 43 - or was this one just one of those things. On a similar vein, I have a hard time sticking to O'Neil's stop loss rules. I end up with stocks that gap down quickly - and end up at a higher loss. Am I unique in this respect? Thanks, Dave Cameron dfcameron@ameritech.net - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Marc Laniado" Subject: [CANSLIM] PLCE Date: 21 Apr 1999 06:39:45 +0100 Dear Tom, What do you think about PLCE - it's a small cap rising on increasing volume and just having made new highs on increased volume? Do you think M is just too bad? Thanks, Marc Marc E Laniado marclaniado@msn.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Walter Stock Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] M - rotation or a correction? Date: 21 Apr 1999 01:56:19 -0400 For Walter Stock: If I remember correctly Walter, last Autumn you made good money during the 20% market correction. Are you already positioned for this potential correction? - -- Johan Van Houtven Hi Johan, Was 100% in cash in my trading account before the dip. As you may remember, I pay a lot of attention to group strength and sector rotation. Well the day before the correction started, I read that the Fidelity elephant was selling off technology stocks in favor of cyclicals, and big time. Couldn't think of worse market news. Cyclical stocks typically do well just before the end of an economic cycle and impending recession. Cyclical stocks are not enough to provide stock market leadership. Cyclical stocks get going just before interest rates get hiked and the market tanks. Couldn't think of a reason to buy anything. But before you start thinking that I am worth listening to about market timing, let me tell you about one of our retirement accounts (my wife's). A few days before the tech selloff, I bought some @Home(ATHM). Well, I got my head handed to me. The morning of the first big selloff, my real-time quote provider went down (all morning). Same morning, my online broker went down (different web-site but roughly same outage... all morning). Sometimes I use hard sell stops through my broker. Usually I use mental stops since I sit in front of my computer and trade every day, and I don't like to get caught in whipsaws. Well you can guess which kind of stop I had (and it wasn't a hard stop). By the time I finally got through to my broker a lot of damage had been done, and ATHM was nearing crucial long-tern support trendline. It held. I decided not to sell. ATHM plummeted through that support trendline the next day faster than a stone off a cliff. Straight through the 50 day moving average too. Uh oh. Cyclical stocks looking really good right about now. Why didn't I buy some IP or AA or some other tree or rock stock? (Also wishing that this mess were in my retirement account and not my wife's). More frantic technical analysis on my part showed that the elevator ride to the basement seemed to be slowing down. Decided not to sell. Am truly thankful that ATHM bounced up 13 13/16 today. Am truly grateful that this was one stock in one account. Am still down 21% on ATHM. Lesson to Walter: use hard stops rather than mental stops. Hope this is instructive and benefits others. Walter, the (unusually) quiet and humble Oakville ONT - Canada - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Walter Stock Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] M - rotation or a correction? Date: 21 Apr 1999 01:56:19 -0400 For Walter Stock: If I remember correctly Walter, last Autumn you made good money during the 20% market correction. Are you already positioned for this potential correction? - -- Johan Van Houtven Hi Johan, Was 100% in cash in my trading account before the dip. As you may remember, I pay a lot of attention to group strength and sector rotation. Well the day before the correction started, I read that the Fidelity elephant was selling off technology stocks in favor of cyclicals, and big time. Couldn't think of worse market news. Cyclical stocks typically do well just before the end of an economic cycle and impending recession. Cyclical stocks are not enough to provide stock market leadership. Cyclical stocks get going just before interest rates get hiked and the market tanks. Couldn't think of a reason to buy anything. But before you start thinking that I am worth listening to about market timing, let me tell you about one of our retirement accounts (my wife's). A few days before the tech selloff, I bought some @Home(ATHM). Well, I got my head handed to me. The morning of the first big selloff, my real-time quote provider went down (all morning). Same morning, my online broker went down (different web-site but roughly same outage... all morning). Sometimes I use hard sell stops through my broker. Usually I use mental stops since I sit in front of my computer and trade every day, and I don't like to get caught in whipsaws. Well you can guess which kind of stop I had (and it wasn't a hard stop). By the time I finally got through to my broker a lot of damage had been done, and ATHM was nearing crucial long-tern support trendline. It held. I decided not to sell. ATHM plummeted through that support trendline the next day faster than a stone off a cliff. Straight through the 50 day moving average too. Uh oh. Cyclical stocks looking really good right about now. Why didn't I buy some IP or AA or some other tree or rock stock? (Also wishing that this mess were in my retirement account and not my wife's). More frantic technical analysis on my part showed that the elevator ride to the basement seemed to be slowing down. Decided not to sell. Am truly thankful that ATHM bounced up 13 13/16 today. Am truly grateful that this was one stock in one account. Am still down 21% on ATHM. Lesson to Walter: use hard stops rather than mental stops. Hope this is instructive and benefits others. Walter, the (unusually) quiet and humble Oakville ONT - Canada - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "mikelu" Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] ADCT Date: 21 Apr 1999 02:05:41 -0700 I had a hard stop at 39 13/16, under the 20-day low. I used hard sell stops on all my stocks this time around, and like how I didn't have to make any quick sell decisions. WON says when M is giving sell signals, to sell the weak stocks first, but I couldn't see which stocks were weak and predict which would fail next. With stops, the weak ones are the ones hitting the stops. Mike -----Original Message----- [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of Dave Cameron Sent: Tuesday, April 20, 1999 7:57 PM I'm curious as to where people would have put a stop loss for ADCT. I bought in at the recent breakout - and got hit hard on Monday when it dropped 6. Ended up selling at a 20% loss instead of the recommended 7% since it dropped from 43 to 37 in about 2 minutes. Should I have put a stop above 43 - or was this one just one of those things. On a similar vein, I have a hard time sticking to O'Neil's stop loss rules. I end up with stocks that gap down quickly - and end up at a higher loss. Am I unique in this respect? Thanks, Dave Cameron dfcameron@ameritech.net - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] PLCE Date: 21 Apr 1999 07:31:26 -0400 Hi Marc, Too extended for a fresh buy, but if I owned it then I would hold. Excellent basic CS nrs: 98/99/B/A. GRS is 91. Up/down ratio is 1.7. I don't like the sharp downturn in last July's earnings and sales, may be seasonal, but if so would watch out for same qtr this year. Management ownership is almost too much, even for me, at 78%. On the other hand this reduces the float to a measly 5 mil shares, meaning faster action when it moves. Mkt cap/sales ratio less than 4, with sales growing. Yesterday's volume heavy even with the recent move it's made. Wasn't bothered by the recent selloff that hit Naz hard, as well as the retail sector. #1 in its sector (Retail-shoes/apparel). Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html -----Original Message----- Dear Tom, What do you think about PLCE - it's a small cap rising on increasing volume and just having made new highs on increased volume? Do you think M is just too bad? Thanks, Marc Marc E Laniado marclaniado@msn.com - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Ssingh@aol.com Subject: [CANSLIM] Knight/Trimark (Surindra) Date: 21 Apr 1999 10:54:49 EDT NITE has good news about earnings today and is breaking out. RS99 GRS97 ESP99 Funds+Banks 17%, Management 35% breaking out at twice the average volume now. Seems to me good buy as they are marketmakers for Nasdaq and profit if there are more trades (internet included). I am upgrading this to buy and target price of 200 in one year.... (Ha Ha... I am not analyst and have 2 Years experience in stocks, so take with a pinch...) Tom, since internet brokage firms are relatively new, do you recall when trading was done by USP mail only? Just curious..... Have a nice day Surindra - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: musicant.pacbell.net@mail-gw2.pacbell.net (Dan Musicant) Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] M - Is this a rotation or a correction? Date: 21 Apr 1999 00:17:22 GMT On Tue, 20 Apr 1999 16:54:47 +0200, you wrote: :>An analyst on NBR on PBS tonight predicted a weakening bond market over :>the next few months -- yields coming down, and said that money will :>therefore not shift into bonds. He sees equities as the place to be. Of :>course, he's with a bullish group, and they are 85% in stocks, 5% in :>cash and the rest in bonds (I think).=20 :> :>Dan : :If interest rates stay low, we will almost certainly continue to enjoy = the :TINA effect. : : : :-- Johan Van Houtven What is the "TINA effect"? -Dan (Charter member of ACA - Acronymically Challenged Anonymous, if I remember correctly...) - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Ricardo Bekin" Subject: [CANSLIM] WTSLA... Date: 21 Apr 1999 11:19:03 -0500 is breaking out this morning, up 2 7/8 on heavy volume, still buyable IMHO (I am thinking of the cup from July 98 to February 99 and the handle since then; or should I interpret the handle as having been forming since September 96?) http://quote.yahoo.com/q?s=WTSLA&d=1y and http://quote.yahoo.com/q?s=WTSLA&d=my - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: mckeen@ix.netcom.com Subject: [CANSLIM] ADCT Date: 21 Apr 1999 11:27:06 -0500 (CDT) Dave, A stop loss needs to be placed at 8% or thereabouts from the purchase price so that you are protected if the stock gaps down hard, as was the case with many on Monday. Losing 20% is steep but better than 25, 30 or more. Buying at the right time is another factor that will keep you in the plus, however, I find this most difficult with the volatility in today's market. No, you are not unique with stop loss rules. I have diverted a little from O'Neil's, sometimes not placing a stop loss at all, even if the stock goes down. It's risky, and I don't recommend it, however, I find especially internet-related stocks overly flexible. Research, watch the market, keep an eye on your stock's chart and the sector it's in, retain your profits but leave breathing room for those companies you want to stay with for the long-term. Hope this helps. Mary - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "John Adair" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] M - Is this a rotation or a correction? IBD Investors Corner Date: 21 Apr 1999 12:43:00 -0500 Tom and Dave May I respectfully but in here. I feel Indexes are misleading or late. Most indices will have many stocks of all sizes. If it is cap weighted the large chop sticks may out vote the majority of the stocks. I propose the Iandex approach. where he picks the strongest stocks in 30 sectors. He graphs them daily as a composite. If the composite graph declines to the 17 day moving average Ian says to expect a correction. He was correct on the Monday decline and others previously. John Adair ----- Original Message ----- Sent: Tuesday, April 20, 1999 10:58 PM Corner > Yeah, Dave, but the real difference is that Hays gets paid > for his opinions, while mine are freely given and worth > every nickle paid for them. > > It bothers me that recent comments from WON suggest breadth > is no longer important to him in measuring "M". I keep > wondering if I am missing something significant. But until I > figure it out, I plan to stay with more traditional > measurement tools like breadth; adv/decline; new highs/lows, > etc. > > It's about time something gets a good dialogue going in this > group on "M" and how best to measure, weigh and understand > it in these mkt conditions. > > In any case, I strongly believe you need to move in with and > marry the index (or indexes) that best mirror the type of > investing you are doing. I am still concentrating on small > caps, so the Russell 2000 works best for me despite the lack > of detail available. > > If you are investing across the board regardless of size, > sector, etc, then the S&P500 may work well. If you are > concentrating in a particular sector, find an index of that > sector. Learn it's behaviour well, and the factors that > influence it primarily. Don't completely ignore the rest of > the mkt, but realize that it's more noise than helpful. > > Tom Worley > stkguru@netside.net > chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 > get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html > > > -----Original Message----- > From: Dave Cameron > To: canslim@lists.xmission.com > Date: Tuesday, April 20, 1999 11:05 PM > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] M - Is this a rotation or a > correction? IBD Investors Corner > > > Johan Van Houtven wrote: > > > > As Hays sees it, the broad market has been in a bear since > April 1998. > > That's when the small-cap Russell 2000 topped. He turned > bullish on Sept. > > 7, in response to the market sell-off and a drop in > interest rates. But in > > mid-February Hays began turning more cautious. Three weeks > ago, his asset > > allocation model shifted to 35% stocks, 40% bonds and 25% > cash, its most > > defensive deployment since before the 1987 crash. > > > > Geee.... this guy (Don Hays) and Tom Worley have a big point > of agreement > here. Actually, one thing I learned is that the major > indices are not > really a good indicator of "M" for me. I need to look at > breadth. I > lost money last year because "M" kept signaling strength via > SPX and > DJIA - but more stocks were down than up. > > Dave Cameron > dfcameron@ameritech.net > > - > > > > - > > - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Joe Barger" Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] source for the iandex graphs Date: 21 Apr 1999 11:22:05 -0700 This is his address as listed in the HGS conference at Telescan (Wall Street City): mailto:rbrown@acton.com There is an extensive discussion of the iandex graphs (and other HGS topics) at the HGS conference site: http://www.wallstreetcity.com/talk/roundtables.htm There may be some sort of registration required (I don't remember), but it's free. Good luck. joe > -----Original Message----- > From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com > [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of Tim Fisher > Sent: Tuesday, April 20, 1999 12:12 PM > To: canslim@lists.xmission.com > Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] source for the iandex graphs > > > Too bad this site is updated weekly instead of daily. Any idea > who Ron Brown > is? There isn't anything there to identify the owner and I got > his name off the > whois server at Networks Associates. > > On 05:03 PM 4/19/99 , Joe Barger Said: > >Or you can try this: > > > >http://www.hgsinvestor.com/iandexms30.html > > > > > >joe > > > > Tim Fisher > Ore-Rock-On and Pacific Fishery Biologists WWW Sites > > Tim@OreRockOn.com > WWW: http://OreRockOn.com > See naked fish and rocks! > > - > - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Marc Laniado" Subject: [CANSLIM] WTSLA, FDS, QCOM Date: 21 Apr 1999 20:28:50 +0100 Hi guy's, Thanks for the note on WTSLA which broke out today. All breakouts noted on interesting stocks will help all of us. Even better when the market suits us!! FDS looks like it's forming a cup with handle - good price and volume action. As a stock it seems fine, Earnings slightly down on the latest quarter compared to the previous quarter and group action appears in slight decline. Nevertheless, could be interesting if it breaks 50$ on greater than 90000 volume. QCOM almost did a high tight flag thing I see - a bit too much decline recently though. It seems difficult to catch stocks within the 5 -10% rule - this drives me completely crazy! All the best, Marc Marc E Laniado marclaniado@msn.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: David Bojanowski Subject: [CANSLIM] zzzAnother New Guy Date: 21 Apr 1999 15:56:17 -0400 Hello, I just subscribed to the digest form of the CANSLIM list. I bought (and read!) "How to Make Money in Stocks" about two years ago but I should really read it again. Unfortunately, I only made a few trades in that time due to a lack of $$$! But I am looking forward to getting back into the swing of things and learning more by (buy! buy! buy!) lurking here on this list. I've noticed that many people here make reference to a stock's chart formation. Can anyone here recommend a book(s) that can give me more information about how to read a chart? There are so many of them out there that its hard for me tell which ones are the best. Also, when looking at a stock's chart, what period of time is used (i.e. last 3 months, last 9 months, etc.)? I'm assuming that lots of people here subscribe to a chart service. I work for an investment company, so I'm fortunate enough to have BridgeStation on my PC (no I'm not a trader). But I'm forbidden from buying stocks in the field our company specializes in, so I have to do my own homework when it comes to investing. I have access to real-time quotes, news, and charts, so I don't need a chart service. I can make it draw lines over the charts (i.e. 100-day moving average, etc.) but I'm not sure which trend lines are best to use (i.e. 100-day and 200-day, or 200-day and 30-day, etc.). Any advice would be greatly appreciated! I'm 25 and live in New York. Dave - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Peter Newell" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] zzzAnother New Guy Date: 21 Apr 1999 16:23:00 -0700 David, Welcome. I'd also check out O'neils 26 week course at www.investors.com it has some good examples. DB Phoenix a good website, catch one of his posts I lost the URL. Ian Woodward has some stuff at www.hgsinvestor.com. Peter Newell -----Original Message----- >Hello, > >I just subscribed to the digest form of the CANSLIM list. I bought (and >read!) "How to Make Money in Stocks" about two years ago but I should >really read it again. Unfortunately, I only made a few trades in that >time due to a lack of $$$! But I am looking forward to getting back >into the swing of things and learning more by (buy! buy! buy!) lurking >here on this list. > >I've noticed that many people here make reference to a stock's chart >formation. Can anyone here recommend a book(s) that can give me more >information about how to read a chart? There are so many of them out >there that its hard for me tell which ones are the best. Also, when >looking at a stock's chart, what period of time is used (i.e. last 3 >months, last 9 months, etc.)? I'm assuming that lots of people here >subscribe to a chart service. I work for an investment company, so I'm >fortunate enough to have BridgeStation on my PC (no I'm not a trader). >But I'm forbidden from buying stocks in the field our company >specializes in, so I have to do my own homework when it comes to >investing. I have access to real-time quotes, news, and charts, so I >don't need a chart service. I can make it draw lines over the charts >(i.e. 100-day moving average, etc.) but I'm not sure which trend lines >are best to use (i.e. 100-day and 200-day, or 200-day and 30-day, etc.). >Any advice would be greatly appreciated! > >I'm 25 and live in New York. > >Dave > > >- > > - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Connie Mack Rea Subject: [CANSLIM] A superlative free site; DELL [Connie Mack] Date: 21 Apr 1999 20:16:38 -0400 DELL has quieted considerably day to day. Its 200 EMA has held twice between 35-6. If you think the techs are beaten down enough, the entry here for long term is as safe as you'll have found in several months. Its quieting might even invite an attempt for those wishing to trade a little. My oil and driller list had but a single loss today. There is still money there, especially if we start supplying ground troops in Kosovo. There is a superlative free site useful for every member. It is more sophisticated by far than BigCharts--whose charts are still the best. I can't even get some of my faculty group to learn its intricacies. It is called Itrader. It has delayed quotes, time and sales, minute charts, indexes, news, many indicators, and dozens of other items. It has real time everything for further bucks. It has a stock ribbon at the bottom on which you can set visual and audible price alert prices. Be sure you view the Readme pages. Then be sure you check out all the icons on the status line. And from there go through completely the Help section. This new edition will even send you e-mail when certain parameters on a stock are set. Too, it claims to be quite amenable to the idiosyncrasies of exporting spreadsheets to word processors. Setup will take about 15 minutes on a 56K modem; twice that for a 28K. Just go into this URL: http://itrader.kanisa.com I have, just for fun, done a few trades using just Itrader and BigCharts. I did cheat a bit when I traded DELL by looking at my realtime sheet, but for a less volatile stock you can trade safely. I think most brokerages give you a realtime quote when you preview a buy; you could use this as a check on the delayed stuff on Itrader and BC. Connie Mack - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Dave Cameron Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] ADCT Date: 21 Apr 1999 23:03:50 -0500 Tom Worley wrote (on ADCT): > > Dave, > > The chart basically looks to me like a LLUR (lower left > upper right) more than any other traditional pattern. > However, what chart pattern were you seeing at the time; > what target did you set; and what stop (mental or actual) > did you establish at entry? I saw a high at about 43-1/2 to 44 that was hit a couple times. This was on a 2-year chart, not a 1-year. This turns the LLUR pattern into more of a double bottom. The high of 44 was set in about Sept 97, Jan 98 and Mar 99. I bought on the first breakout above this level on high volume. I established a stop at 42-1/4, since this was definitively back in the range. This was about 10% below purchase price. Unfortunately, with a drop from 43 to 37 very quickly - I didn't get my stop price. OTOH, read on... > > And considering the lack of recovery today on heavy volume, > I can't disagree with your decision to exit. The potential > for a further drop is large, IMHO. I exited - but re-entered. It may be a mistake, but the solid recovery today brought me back in. This time the stop is pretty tight though... Thanks, Dave Cameron dfcameron@ameritech.net > > Tom Worley > stkguru@netside.net > chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 > get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html > > -----Original Message----- > From: Dave Cameron > To: canslim > Date: Tuesday, April 20, 1999 11:00 PM > Subject: [CANSLIM] ADCT > > I'm curious as to where people would have put a stop loss > for ADCT. I bought in at the recent breakout - and got > hit hard on Monday when it dropped 6. Ended up selling > at a 20% loss instead of the recommended 7% since it dropped > from 43 to 37 in about 2 minutes. Should I have put a > stop above 43 - or was this one just one of those things. > > On a similar vein, I have a hard time sticking to O'Neil's > stop loss rules. I end up with stocks that gap down > quickly - and end up at a higher loss. Am I unique in > this respect? > > Thanks, > > Dave Cameron > dfcameron@ameritech.net > > - > > - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Dave Cameron Subject: [CANSLIM] ASTX Date: 21 Apr 1999 23:08:57 -0500 Maybe I shouldn't mention this - but ASTX had a breakout today (Wednesday Apr 21) on strong volume. I don't have an IBD in front of me - but I suspect its not really a true CANSLIM stock. But.... the reason I noticed it is that it had been one - and with the recent strength (from 4 to 14 in last 6 mos) was showing great a s/t lift. Anyway, one to research - for me anyway. Dave Cameron dfcameron@ameritech.net - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Knight/Trimark (Surindra) Date: 22 Apr 1999 01:43:39 -0400 Hey Surindra, I know I'm old, but don't rub it in! Actually, I don't believe trades have ever actually been done "by the mail". The first exchange was literally done on a street corner, near today's Wall Street. In the early days, exchanges (trades) were done by literally going to the "floor" of the exchange. Thus, in its early years, the only ones involved in the mkt were the businessment in the NYC area. Eventually, as lines of communication broadened, trades were called in to member firms in NYC for execution. I guess trades could be sent in by Western Union. And as communications evolved, sites with a "ticker tape" machine grew geographically, so interested parties could watch the mkt "live" assuming they knew how to read punched tape. Actual "off exchange" trading is, I believe relatively new and only a few decades old. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html -----Original Message----- Tom, since internet brokage firms are relatively new, do you recall when trading was done by USP mail only? Just curious..... - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Johan Van Houtven Subject: Re: Fw: [CANSLIM] M - Is this a rotation or a correction? IBD Date: 21 Apr 1999 08:49:03 +0200 Marc, Recieved it from an email friend in the US. At 10:52 PM 20/04/99 +0100, you wrote: >Dear Johan, >Where do you manage to get investor's corner on line? -- Johan Van Houtven - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: IMF STAFF Subject: [CANSLIM] Daily Canslim Stock Screening Site FREE! Date: 22 Apr 1999 00:29:35 -0700 The site listed below has: EPS, RS Rankings On 10,000 Stocks Daily including Daily CANSLIM, POWER RANK STOCKS, MOMENTUM PLAYS, CUP & HANDLE SEARCHES, and MORE! THE POWER RANK FILTER BUTTON IS NOW WORKING DAILY FOR PITBULL INVESTORS! Due to our own demand, we have developed an online stock screening tool that provides you all the stock data needed to work the PITBULL INVESTOR system and many others including CANSLIM. 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At 10:52 PM 20/04/99 +0100, you wrote: >Dear Johan, >Where do you manage to get investor's corner on line? -- Johan Van Houtven - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Walt Nusbaum Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Knight/Trimark (Surindra) Date: 22 Apr 1999 07:18:24 -0500 Hey Tom, Didn't we go to different schools together? Anyway, I believe initially, all mutual fund trading was done by mail. In the 70's(I'm not really clear on the decade), "telephone switching" became popular, but some fund families still insisted on using the US mail service. Best wishes, Walt The main difference between the haves and the have-nots are the dids and the did-nots. Unk. Tom Worley wrote: > > Hey Surindra, > > I know I'm old, but don't rub it in! > > Actually, I don't believe trades have ever actually been > done "by the mail". The first exchange was literally done on > a street corner, near today's Wall Street. In the early > days, exchanges (trades) were done by literally going to the > "floor" of the exchange. Thus, in its early years, the only > ones involved in the mkt were the businessment in the NYC > area. > > Eventually, as lines of communication broadened, trades were > called in to member firms in NYC for execution. I guess > trades could be sent in by Western Union. And as > communications evolved, sites with a "ticker tape" machine > grew geographically, so interested parties could watch the > mkt "live" assuming they knew how to read punched tape. > Actual "off exchange" trading is, I believe relatively new > and only a few decades old. > > Tom Worley > stkguru@netside.net > chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 > get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html > > -----Original Message----- > From: Ssingh@aol.com > To: canslim@lists.xmission.com > Date: Wednesday, April 21, 1999 11:07 AM > Subject: [CANSLIM] Knight/Trimark (Surindra) > > Tom, since internet brokage firms are relatively new, do you > recall when > trading was done by USP mail only? Just curious..... > > - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Knight/Trimark (Surindra) Date: 22 Apr 1999 09:21:05 -0400 One other comment I forgot, as I understand it, even today trade's on the German exchange are done by physically carrying the orders down to the exchange by a representative of the firm doing the transactions. Online trading is still very much of a new "phenomena" mostly found in the USA. I am still trying to get an answer from a personal contact at NITE whether or how soon they may open up accts for retail online trading, so far it's just their institutional clients. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html -----Original Message----- Hey Tom, Didn't we go to different schools together? Anyway, I believe initially, all mutual fund trading was done by mail. In the 70's(I'm not really clear on the decade), "telephone switching" became popular, but some fund families still insisted on using the US mail service. Best wishes, Walt The main difference between the haves and the have-nots are the dids and the did-nots. Unk. Tom Worley wrote: > > Hey Surindra, > > I know I'm old, but don't rub it in! > > Actually, I don't believe trades have ever actually been > done "by the mail". The first exchange was literally done on > a street corner, near today's Wall Street. In the early > days, exchanges (trades) were done by literally going to the > "floor" of the exchange. Thus, in its early years, the only > ones involved in the mkt were the businessment in the NYC > area. > > Eventually, as lines of communication broadened, trades were > called in to member firms in NYC for execution. I guess > trades could be sent in by Western Union. And as > communications evolved, sites with a "ticker tape" machine > grew geographically, so interested parties could watch the > mkt "live" assuming they knew how to read punched tape. > Actual "off exchange" trading is, I believe relatively new > and only a few decades old. > > Tom Worley > stkguru@netside.net > chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 > get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html > > -----Original Message----- > From: Ssingh@aol.com > To: canslim@lists.xmission.com > Date: Wednesday, April 21, 1999 11:07 AM > Subject: [CANSLIM] Knight/Trimark (Surindra) > > Tom, since internet brokage firms are relatively new, do you > recall when > trading was done by USP mail only? Just curious..... > > - - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] M - Is this a rotation or a correction? IBD Investors Corner Date: 22 Apr 1999 09:32:00 -0400 Hi John, I agree, indexes are lagging indicators. My point was that if you are trying to measure your own personal performance, using an index that mirrors your investments is useful. Since the index consists of many stocks, and is unmanaged, if the index closely matches what you are doing, and is beating you, then you are doing something wrong. If you can find a mutual fund that closely matches your investments, all the better since that would provide you a "managed" index. On the other hand, if you are investing across the board, the landex might provide the best "managed index" by which to measure your achievements. However, with only limited exposure to each sector, it may still fail to warn you of impending major deterioration in a particular sector. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html -----Original Message----- correction? IBD Investors Corner Tom and Dave May I respectfully but in here. I feel Indexes are misleading or late. Most indices will have many stocks of all sizes. If it is cap weighted the large chop sticks may out vote the majority of the stocks. I propose the Iandex approach. where he picks the strongest stocks in 30 sectors. He graphs them daily as a composite. If the composite graph declines to the 17 day moving average Ian says to expect a correction. He was correct on the Monday decline and others previously. John Adair ----- Original Message ----- Sent: Tuesday, April 20, 1999 10:58 PM correction? IBD Investors Corner > Yeah, Dave, but the real difference is that Hays gets paid > for his opinions, while mine are freely given and worth > every nickle paid for them. > > It bothers me that recent comments from WON suggest breadth > is no longer important to him in measuring "M". I keep > wondering if I am missing something significant. But until I > figure it out, I plan to stay with more traditional > measurement tools like breadth; adv/decline; new highs/lows, > etc. > > It's about time something gets a good dialogue going in this > group on "M" and how best to measure, weigh and understand > it in these mkt conditions. > > In any case, I strongly believe you need to move in with and > marry the index (or indexes) that best mirror the type of > investing you are doing. I am still concentrating on small > caps, so the Russell 2000 works best for me despite the lack > of detail available. > > If you are investing across the board regardless of size, > sector, etc, then the S&P500 may work well. If you are > concentrating in a particular sector, find an index of that > sector. Learn it's behaviour well, and the factors that > influence it primarily. Don't completely ignore the rest of > the mkt, but realize that it's more noise than helpful. > > Tom Worley > stkguru@netside.net > chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 > get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html > > > -----Original Message----- > From: Dave Cameron > To: canslim@lists.xmission.com > Date: Tuesday, April 20, 1999 11:05 PM > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] M - Is this a rotation or a > correction? IBD Investors Corner > > > Johan Van Houtven wrote: > > > > As Hays sees it, the broad market has been in a bear since > April 1998. > > That's when the small-cap Russell 2000 topped. He turned > bullish on Sept. > > 7, in response to the market sell-off and a drop in > interest rates. But in > > mid-February Hays began turning more cautious. Three weeks > ago, his asset > > allocation model shifted to 35% stocks, 40% bonds and 25% > cash, its most > > defensive deployment since before the 1987 crash. > > > > Geee.... this guy (Don Hays) and Tom Worley have a big point > of agreement > here. Actually, one thing I learned is that the major > indices are not > really a good indicator of "M" for me. I need to look at > breadth. I > lost money last year because "M" kept signaling strength via > SPX and > DJIA - but more stocks were down than up. > > Dave Cameron > dfcameron@ameritech.net > > - > > > > - > > - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] ASTX Date: 22 Apr 1999 10:25:56 -0400 Dave, be careful. You are correct, it's definitely not CANSLIM with the past three consecutive qtrs earnings falling way under prior year, and last two consecutive qtrs sales also down sharply. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html -----Original Message----- Maybe I shouldn't mention this - but ASTX had a breakout today (Wednesday Apr 21) on strong volume. I don't have an IBD in front of me - but I suspect its not really a true CANSLIM stock. But.... the reason I noticed it is that it had been one - and with the recent strength (from 4 to 14 in last 6 mos) was showing great a s/t lift. Anyway, one to research - for me anyway. Dave Cameron dfcameron@ameritech.net - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] zzzAnother New Guy Date: 22 Apr 1999 09:38:24 -0400 Hi David, and welcome to the group. I subscribe to Daily Graphs Online, an O'Neil service. Tho expensive, it gives me authentic CANSLIM data from the master guru, updated daily. DGO uses 50 and 200 dma lines on its charts, which is pretty much a WON standard. I use these same SMAs on charts at BigCharts, along with the 10 day line, to help me with entry and exit points. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html -----Original Message----- Hello, I just subscribed to the digest form of the CANSLIM list. I bought (and read!) "How to Make Money in Stocks" about two years ago but I should really read it again. Unfortunately, I only made a few trades in that time due to a lack of $$$! But I am looking forward to getting back into the swing of things and learning more by (buy! buy! buy!) lurking here on this list. I've noticed that many people here make reference to a stock's chart formation. Can anyone here recommend a book(s) that can give me more information about how to read a chart? There are so many of them out there that its hard for me tell which ones are the best. Also, when looking at a stock's chart, what period of time is used (i.e. last 3 months, last 9 months, etc.)? I'm assuming that lots of people here subscribe to a chart service. I work for an investment company, so I'm fortunate enough to have BridgeStation on my PC (no I'm not a trader). But I'm forbidden from buying stocks in the field our company specializes in, so I have to do my own homework when it comes to investing. I have access to real-time quotes, news, and charts, so I don't need a chart service. I can make it draw lines over the charts (i.e. 100-day moving average, etc.) but I'm not sure which trend lines are best to use (i.e. 100-day and 200-day, or 200-day and 30-day, etc.). Any advice would be greatly appreciated! I'm 25 and live in New York. Dave - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Subject: [CANSLIM] Oil drillers- RIG Date: 22 Apr 1999 10:07:05 -0700 I would appreciate comments on RIG (Transocean) ...an oil driller. It appears to be a nice cup and handle with a handle breakout around $30.25 on strong volume. The stock also went above its 200 dMA (1st time in 6 months) and appears to be staying there. RIG released earnings today at .85 vs. estimated .72... or .13 ahead of est. Group strength has been rapidly rising from 192 to 71 currently. Also have some questions on moving averages...I have seen references to the 3/7/10 dEMA on BigCharts...when I use BigCharts and use the 3 line EMA and enter a 3, I receive back a 3/6/9 EMA...Question is can you get a 3/7/10 EMA using BigCharts? What is the difference between an SMA and a EMA? Which is the most commonly used? Thanks, Ray "Ziggy" Wroblewski - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Johan Van Houtven Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] M - Is this a rotation or a correction? Date: 21 Apr 1999 20:27:12 +0200 At 12:17 AM 4/21/99 GMT, you wrote: >:If interest rates stay low, we will almost certainly continue to enjoy the >:TINA effect. >: >: >: >:-- Johan Van Houtven > >What is the "TINA effect"? There Is No Alternative. Where are people going to place there money when interest rates a very low? In stocks, because There Is No Alternative. >-Dan (Charter member of ACA - Acronymically Challenged Anonymous, if I >remember correctly...) :) Johan - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: CA011667@aol.com Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] ASTX Date: 22 Apr 1999 22:16:19 EDT Dave, I have owned this one before.Back in 1996 it was pure CANSLIM.It had 99eps ect.It broke out from 16-23 in two weeks and made a big time reversal immediatley.Be careful,I think the majority of thier sales depend on AMAT.You might want to double check this to see if they have added some new sources of revenue. Chris. - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Patrick Wahl" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Oil drillers- RIG Date: 22 Apr 1999 21:53:29 -0800 Date sent: Thu, 22 Apr 1999 10:07:05 -0700 > I would appreciate comments on RIG (Transocean) ...an oil > driller. It appears to be a nice cup and handle with a > handle breakout around $30.25 on strong volume. The stock > also went above its 200 dMA (1st time in 6 months) and > appears to be staying there. > RIG released earnings today at .85 vs. estimated .72... or > .13 ahead of est. Group strength has been rapidly rising > from 192 to 71 currently. This really isn't a cup and handle, since they are a correction to a previous price gain, while this is a general bottoming out process. I also suspect the RS is low. However, group strength, as you say, has been improving as the price of oil rises. Could be ok, although this sector makes me a bit nervous because it seems to depend on the whims of the oil producing countries, so if they decide to pump more oil again, that would probably be trouble for this group. - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Oil drillers- RIG Date: 23 Apr 1999 00:54:38 -0400 Hi Ray, The analyst's forecasts on RIG call for a 20% decline in earnings this year, and a further 30% decline next year. RS is now 46, pretty low considering the rise in price of crude and increased earnings by refiners and producers. Existing production capacity still exceeds demand, thus there is little need for drillers and explorers. On BigCharts, just click in the box for setting the time duration for Moving Averages, and enter what you want separated by commas, no spaces. I think you can enter at least 10 different durations, maybe more. I don't know which is more "popular", SMA (simple moving average) or EMA (exponential moving average), I use EMA mostly because several friends whose opinion I trust favor it. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html -----Original Message----- I would appreciate comments on RIG (Transocean) ...an oil driller. It appears to be a nice cup and handle with a handle breakout around $30.25 on strong volume. The stock also went above its 200 dMA (1st time in 6 months) and appears to be staying there. RIG released earnings today at .85 vs. estimated .72... or .13 ahead of est. Group strength has been rapidly rising from 192 to 71 currently. Also have some questions on moving averages...I have seen references to the 3/7/10 dEMA on BigCharts...when I use BigCharts and use the 3 line EMA and enter a 3, I receive back a 3/6/9 EMA...Question is can you get a 3/7/10 EMA using BigCharts? What is the difference between an SMA and a EMA? Which is the most commonly used? Thanks, Ray "Ziggy" Wroblewski - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Ssingh@aol.com Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Oil drillers- RIG Date: 23 Apr 1999 02:13:04 EDT RS of 46 is really improved over the 6, a few months ago as I recall... Have a wonderful Friday.. Surindra In a message dated 4/23/99 12:57:43 AM Eastern Daylight Time, stkguru@netside.net writes: << Subj: Re: [CANSLIM] Oil drillers- RIG Date: 4/23/99 12:57:43 AM Eastern Daylight Time From: stkguru@netside.net (Tom Worley) Sender: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com Reply-to: canslim@lists.xmission.com To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Hi Ray, The analyst's forecasts on RIG call for a 20% decline in earnings this year, and a further 30% decline next year. RS is now 46, pretty low considering the rise in price of crude and increased earnings by refiners and producers. Existing production capacity still exceeds demand, thus there is little need for drillers and explorers. >> - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Marc Laniado" Subject: [CANSLIM] XTRM, JAKK, OSSI, FDS, POWI Date: 23 Apr 1999 07:54:41 +0100 Tom and other experts!, I know in your posts you're especially interested in small caps. I am trying to balance my criteria for selection and find that I can't always have it my way - not surprisingly. Watching the volatility around us, it does seem that at least some (what I perceive to be) good small caps are less subject to the swings. eg XTRM - great growth with one less good quarter but brilliant cup with handle formation (check an 18 month chart out). Similarly, JAKK came off a base really nicely (small hiccup when it announced a secondary offering) and broke out nicely with fantastic earnings (with another small hiccup this week!). Incidentally, OSSI came out with its earnings which were OK. It's stock has been rising off a nice secondary base with not quite the right volume until it was beyond the 10% rule. Have you been following it? What breakout volumes do you look for? Do you always use a 3 month average or do you relax that if there were some spikes at the beginning of the period. If so, is that always appropriate? Are you buying any of these types of stocks? POWI is a small cap that broke out. It's chart is pretty good (cup and handle) but EPS rank 71 prior to this quarter (out yesterday). I suspect the EPS rank will rise when it's new earnings are incorporated in the data, which I presume takes a few days. I mentioned FDS before in a post. MSN investor tells me its institutional holders have fallen by more than 5% so this is not so good. It also pays out a dividend, so FDS may not be as hopeful as I thought. Any other ideas gratefully received! Marc Marc E Laniado marclaniado@msn.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Jack Lykins" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Oil drillers- RIG Date: 23 Apr 1999 06:37:18 -0400 Ray, For what it's worth....In my opinion RIG is best deep water driller ( DO is a close 2nd). I have been following the oil stocks very closely since last fall. RIG has not rebounded by the same percentage that some of the smaller shallow water drillers and oil service stocks who were down to a fraction of their 52 wk highs. They have rebounded by higher multiples in the recent upturn. If you are looking for a long term investment I think RIG is an excellent choice. If you are looking to trade oil stocks on a short term bases I would suggest caution. I think RIG and the Oil stocks in general are swayed more by oil supply, OPEC, weekly supply/consumption information, ETC... to trade using CANSLIM. For more information on oil stocks see the sites below. My favorite section is Bob Bowker's weekly commentary on the www.labpuppy.com site. He seems to have a tremendous insight in this area. Jack Lykins http://www.loosbrock.com/odb/ http://www.labpuppy.com/index2.htm http://www.bloomberg.com/@@qtKKUAYALiwmRJKK/energy/index.html http://www.oil-gasoline.com/links.html http://www.oilonline.com/ http://www.petroleumstocks.com/ ----- Original Message ----- Sent: Thursday, April 22, 1999 1:07 PM > I would appreciate comments on RIG (Transocean) ...an oil > driller. It appears to be a nice cup and handle with a > handle breakout around $30.25 on strong volume. The stock > also went above its 200 dMA (1st time in 6 months) and > appears to be staying there. > RIG released earnings today at .85 vs. estimated .72... or > .13 ahead of est. Group strength has been rapidly rising > from 192 to 71 currently. > > Also have some questions on moving averages...I have seen > references to the 3/7/10 dEMA on BigCharts...when I use > BigCharts and use the 3 line EMA and enter a 3, I receive > back a 3/6/9 EMA...Question is can you get a 3/7/10 EMA > using BigCharts? > What is the difference between an SMA and a EMA? Which is > the most commonly used? > > Thanks, > Ray "Ziggy" Wroblewski > > > - > - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] XTRM, JAKK, OSSI, FDS, POWI Date: 23 Apr 1999 08:59:03 -0400 Hi Marc, Small caps have been, to some degree, less volatile, that is true. But the reason is that they have been underperforming the mkt for several years, and thus carry far lower valuations compared to their earnings and earnings potential. That is why so many commentators keep saying "their day is coming". Unfortunately as long as the money flow continues to prefer liquidity over value and earnings growth, small caps will continue to underperform. On XTRM, I have looked at it several times as it continued to hit new highs. The only "flaw" I saw was the Sep results which, while still up, was weak sequentially. Apparently a slow point in their cycle, maybe all the teenagers going back to school? I also prefer to see a young co like this with stronger mngmt ownership, but there is still 13% there. I wonder how they may be affected in the future with the disclosure of the role that paint gun "games" played in the Littleton massacre? I never traded the stock for personal reasons. As a Vietnam vet, I raised my sons to never point a gun at anyone they didn't intend to kill, doesn't matter if it's a toy, or loaded/unloaded. To this day I have trouble with the concept of a "game" consisting of shooting other people, albeit with paint balls. Told you I'm a fuddy duddy! On JAKK, I rarely look at a chart over 12 months (the time period used by DGO), so I didn't see the c&h you refer to. But I did have this one on my watch list during the long base at 10. Skipped it as I favor tech stocks, too bad it's been a nice performer since. I have traded OSSI for myself and former clients several times. I have enjoyed dinner there many times when my finances allowed. Planning dinner there soon to reward myself for my recent handsome pay raise. Not trading it as share price beyond my parameters (I focus on stocks under $20). I do note that earnings growth is not racing ahead of sales growth, which I would have expected due earnings efficiencies. Some years ago they seemed to have met a saturation level, where the availability of steak houses had met the consumer demand for red meat. Even expanding their hours to provide for the lunch trade did little to expand their sales, and eventually the hour long wait for dinner dwindled to only 15 or 20 minutes. Still, while open they were full constantly. For average daily volume, I use a simple 50 trading day average, from DGO. This is what WON uses for CANSLIM, and I have seen no reason to change. For breakout volume, I use 150% (1.5 times ADV), again the O'Neil standard. However, because I trade small caps exclusively, which can easily jump 10% in a single day due their small float, I don't always wait for the breakout. If I like the base, and see little downside from the base, I may gamble on an eventual b/o and buy in the base. Haven't looked at POWI in some time, however I note it's breaking out from an ascending base, normally not a great sign, however the latest earnings may have something to do with that. I also note it did a double bottom in Feb/Mar which may help support its more recent rise. FDS is not one I've followed due price, but looks at a quick glance to have all the necessary CS elements. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html -----Original Message----- Tom and other experts!, I know in your posts you're especially interested in small caps. I am trying to balance my criteria for selection and find that I can't always have it my way - not surprisingly. Watching the volatility around us, it does seem that at least some (what I perceive to be) good small caps are less subject to the swings. eg XTRM - great growth with one less good quarter but brilliant cup with handle formation (check an 18 month chart out). Similarly, JAKK came off a base really nicely (small hiccup when it announced a secondary offering) and broke out nicely with fantastic earnings (with another small hiccup this week!). Incidentally, OSSI came out with its earnings which were OK. It's stock has been rising off a nice secondary base with not quite the right volume until it was beyond the 10% rule. Have you been following it? What breakout volumes do you look for? Do you always use a 3 month average or do you relax that if there were some spikes at the beginning of the period. If so, is that always appropriate? Are you buying any of these types of stocks? POWI is a small cap that broke out. It's chart is pretty good (cup and handle) but EPS rank 71 prior to this quarter (out yesterday). I suspect the EPS rank will rise when it's new earnings are incorporated in the data, which I presume takes a few days. I mentioned FDS before in a post. MSN investor tells me its institutional holders have fallen by more than 5% so this is not so good. It also pays out a dividend, so FDS may not be as hopeful as I thought. Any other ideas gratefully received! Marc Marc E Laniado marclaniado@msn.com - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Connie Mack Rea Subject: [CANSLIM] Oils, drillers, and DELL. [Connie Mack] Date: 23 Apr 1999 09:28:06 -0400 My oils' and drillers' list did not have a single loser yesterday. In several instances the stocks are just below, on, or just above their 200 EMA. Some are just a point or two above and arrived there in the last few sessions. If these are to continue up, the 200 EMA ought not be broken. For those who have been nibbling or trading DELL, you have done well. The 3/7/10 EMA just went buy and the MACD will turn buy with another good up day. Too, DELL is coming off of a double bottom that looks promising. Watch your stops on DELL. There is often a lot of volatility on the second leg up of a double bottom. Connie Mack - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: DS Subject: [CANSLIM] One to watch *****WARNING NON CS!!***** Date: 23 Apr 1999 08:43:39 -0500 Hi All, Keep an eye on the ALLR. This company makes a software product called Cold Fusion, which is used to write web applications. The stock has held strong near its IPO price and tried to come out of its base before the correction but failed because of M. However, it defended the low end of the base at 56 throughout the correction. If this stock can move through the 68-70 area on heavy volume it may be a real screamer. Volume is more important with this stock than a price breakout as the spread is very wide and the stock is very volatile intraday. If the stock moves through the buy point on weak volume I would stand aside. Good Trading, DSquires - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: DS Subject: [CANSLIM] MNMD Breakout Date: 23 Apr 1999 09:17:04 -0500 Hi All, MNMD is breaking out on expanding volume. Beware of the large spread. Good trading, DSquires - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Walt Nusbaum Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] OFF LIST(Small Caps) Date: 23 Apr 1999 11:50:28 -0500 Small Cap Investors, For a real eye-opener on small caps get the May issue of "Smart Money" and read, "It's Lonely at the Bottom", pp. 118-125. You will find it excerpted at: http://www.smartmoney.com, but the entire article is a worthy read. Best wishes, Walt > > At 12:17 AM 4/21/99 GMT, you wrote: > > >:If interest rates stay low, we will almost certainly continue to enjoy the > >:TINA effect. > >: > >: > >: > >:-- Johan Van Houtven > > > >What is the "TINA effect"? > > There Is No Alternative. > > Where are people going to place there money when interest rates a very low? > In stocks, because There Is No Alternative. > > >-Dan (Charter member of ACA - Acronymically Challenged Anonymous, if I > >remember correctly...) > > :) > > Johan > > - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Connie Mack Rea Subject: [CANSLIM] Technical: AMD [Connie Mack] Date: 23 Apr 1999 13:36:24 -0400 I've looked at AMD for some time, mainly because I traded it early last year. Just the last few days it has looked like it might be good for investment. Entry would seem to have little danger. It has just come off a widely separated double bottom back in November. The MACD has been diddling around the trigger line for a couple of months and looks like it might be gaining strength. Too, the MoneyFlow has resisted turning down. MF is a powerful gross indicator when it is positively divergent. If you will look back at DELL for three months, you will see that MF was positively divergent while DELL was all over the place. I intend to take a position today in AMD on technical considerations alone. I am holding my positions in DELL because the 3/7/10 EMA gave a buy. I have a stop at 42.5. Connie Mack - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: CA011667@aol.com Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Technical: AMD [Connie Mack] Date: 23 Apr 1999 14:22:15 EDT Hi Connie, I would like to get my monthly tech outlook on CMED.I have held through some tough times but the price has recently rebounded and so has RS.With the Russell 2000 waking up I think I will be glad held tight.Fudamentals still great with a PEG of .40.Thanks and have a good weekend.Chris. - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Dave Cameron Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] OFF LIST(Small Caps) Date: 23 Apr 1999 22:31:15 -0500 Hmmm.... enough articles like this and we may have a contrarian indicator. I'm one of those ol' fashioned believers that small caps are not dead forever. If many investors and money managers think the way this article says they do, then we may be getting close to a turnaround. Regardless, it is an interesting article. I agree with a lot of it. I've always taken CANSLIM to be a smaller cap technique (based on early WON), and did well through '95 and sporadic afterwards. I'm sure there's a correlation. Dave Cameron dfcameron@ameritech.net Walt Nusbaum wrote: > > Small Cap Investors, > For a real eye-opener on small caps get the May issue of "Smart Money" > and read, "It's Lonely at the Bottom", pp. 118-125. You will find it > excerpted at: http://www.smartmoney.com, but the entire article is a > worthy read. > Best wishes, > Walt > > - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: [CANSLIM] DGO New Highs Date: 24 Apr 1999 08:04:16 -0400 Another interesting week. Despite the one day "crash" in internet stocks in particular, and NASDAQ and tech stocks more generally, the world did not come to an end. It already shows as more of a "blip" than any real event. More "tree shaking" or panic selling than any real change in mkt fundamentals. The Russell 2000 continues to move thru resistance, and is now at the upper range of breaking thru, tho RS is weakening and not encouraging to me. Sentiment on the small caps is also getting too bullish judging by all the articles stacked up in my inbox for reading this weekend. Still, R2000 managed to beat the Dow 30 for the second week, and is finally on the plus side for the year again. Here's some weekly and year to date results I culled from the net: Index week YTD NASDAQ +4.2% +18.2% Dow 30 +1.8 +16.4 R2000 +2.4 +2.3 S&P500 +2.8 +10.4 S&P100 +2.7 VIX -5.9 (but still over 20 at 23.96) Nonetheless, the list of stocks in DG hitting new highs last week dropped sharply from 408 to 293. The "survivors" were down but not as much to 103 from 127. Here they are: GNTX, BJ, FTEN, RYAAY, IR, SNS, HAS, ISCA, MAR, TAGS, ALD, FMBK, FRK, SBUX, PKX, NTRS, KRON, CTS, NW, MCRL, AVY, SRT, HDI, IFIN, CLE, MYG, VCI, UTX, TXT, DHR, MTW, AVP, CPN, LIN, JCI, CMB, ECL, SIGYY, GCI, FWRD, PJAM, KARE, DSP, BSX, BJICA, AVI, RICA, XLNX, GD, MLM, KCP, ZION, QCOM, AIG, TQNT, ITP, LUV, MXIM, AXP, POSIF, NITE (still with perfect nrs), OAT, HRZ, AXTI, TLAB, KMB, SONC, JAKK, CRHCY, TAN, RFMD, EXPD, WTSLA, PRGX, ELK, PVN, JNJ, TRB, PREN, AUD, KWP, ALTR, ADIC, NAV, POWI, MNMD, MFI, WLFI, BMY, PLCE, XTRM, MMC, EBAY, ETM, ADBE, DY, ASTE, OSSI, TCAT, SSD, IBM, EWB, TYC. Now that DGO has confirmed that they will continue the "stocks at or within 5% of a new high" list, I am evaluating whether I will continue to look at the list of all new highs, from which I generate this report. The former list is better screened as it is only stocks in DG with both RS and EPS of 80 or better, plus it picks up the ones still in a base but ready to break out. It totals 186 by comparison to this list of 103, and presumably will include all 103, plus another 83 close to a new high. I will continue to post this list until I complete my evaluations. I was denied permission to post the list, so anyone that wants to examine it will have to try the trial DGO membership. For those that are IBD subscribers, I would suggest you write IBD and insist on this list being carried there. Since it is created Friday nite, it would not be in the Friday Review, but could likely be carried in the next edition. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: [CANSLIM] New DGO list Date: 25 Apr 1999 09:20:49 -0400 Just finished a rapid review of the 186 stocks listed on the new list from DGO. While I don't plan on looking at every one in the future, did want to go thru the list at least once to see what picture emerged from this "screened for CANSLIM" quality list. Since the entire list was already pre-qualified for CANSLIM elements, I just wanted to look at the chart patterns, so turned off the data block and just scrolled thru the list. For the purposes of this evaluation, I also turned off all of my personal biases for industry and price, and just looked at the graph. No research, no technical analysis, just 5-15 seconds observing, so I'm making no recommendations, just pointing out a few that caught my attention. DECENT BASES: DY, MSS (tho low price), BBBY, FM, BCOM, BMET, GM LLUR: SDLI, UTX POSSIBLE BREAKOUTS OR B/O POTENTIAL: EFII, WAT, LUV, XTRM, HH, EL, BMET From my evaluations this weekend, I expect next week will be my last time to post the DGO Highs list. I will continue to augment my watch list from stocks hitting new highs but not in the DG books, but can see no reason to continue looking at the DGO new highs list when this new list is so much better, and includes the CS new highs. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Marc Laniado" Subject: Fw: [CANSLIM] New DGO list Date: 25 Apr 1999 15:26:18 +0100 Tom, The LLUR list you give - how does that apply to CS? Do you mean that one could buy on a pull back with the order set above the previous day's low or do you just buy it? I am not quite sure how to apply it. Thanks, Marc Marc E Laniado marclaniado@msn.com Tel/Fax: +44 171 731 1354 Mobile +44 777 553 1354 -----Original Message----- >Just finished a rapid review of the 186 stocks listed on the >new list from DGO. While I don't plan on looking at every >one in the future, did want to go thru the list at least >once to see what picture emerged from this "screened for >CANSLIM" quality list. > >Since the entire list was already pre-qualified for CANSLIM >elements, I just wanted to look at the chart patterns, so >turned off the data block and just scrolled thru the list. >For the purposes of this evaluation, I also turned off all >of my personal biases for industry and price, and just >looked at the graph. No research, no technical analysis, >just 5-15 seconds observing, so I'm making no >recommendations, just pointing out a few that caught my >attention. > >DECENT BASES: >DY, MSS (tho low price), BBBY, FM, BCOM, BMET, GM > >LLUR: >SDLI, UTX > >POSSIBLE BREAKOUTS OR B/O POTENTIAL: >EFII, WAT, LUV, XTRM, HH, EL, BMET > >From my evaluations this weekend, I expect next week will be >my last time to post the DGO Highs list. I will continue to >augment my watch list from stocks hitting new highs but not >in the DG books, but can see no reason to continue looking >at the DGO new highs list when this new list is so much >better, and includes the CS new highs. > >Tom Worley >stkguru@netside.net >chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 >get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html > > > > >- > > - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] New DGO list Date: 25 Apr 1999 10:36:15 -0400 Hi Marc, I used to avoid LLUR type charts as they rarely presented any base, or at least one more than a week or so long. But I have found many fit well into the momentum style of CANSLIM, so long as they have top drawer RS and EPS, and "C" is also strong. It also helps if "C" is good on a sequential qtrly basis, and earnings forecast show a continuation of strong growth expected. Volatility is key, if you see the pattern changing, best to take your profits and avoid the future risks. Ride 'em as long as the pattern is consistent, bail when it changes. As far as a buy point is concerned, it can vary from trying to catch a minor pullback to just buying them. In either case, you need to keep a close watch, and a tight stop, as you start off without any base to protect you to the downside. If the momentum continues and the pattern remains intact, eventually you can give them a little more room as you build profits, but still should keep a fairly tight stop as any variation in the pattern of a LLUR (which is marked by very low volatility regardless of the mkt) should result in a sell. This is true of a sharp spike upward even more than any drop in price. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html -----Original Message----- Tom, The LLUR list you give - how does that apply to CS? Do you mean that one could buy on a pull back with the order set above the previous day's low or do you just buy it? I am not quite sure how to apply it. Thanks, Marc Marc E Laniado marclaniado@msn.com Tel/Fax: +44 171 731 1354 Mobile +44 777 553 1354 - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Marc Laniado" Subject: [CANSLIM] WTSLA Date: 25 Apr 1999 19:53:15 +0100 Hi Tom - thanks for answering my question. I don't know what you think of WTSLA. WTSLA appeared to breakout this week, then fell back on some volume and then fell a little more on lower volume but not reaching its peak. It did form a cup with handle but a 3 year chart shows it has reached this resistance level before, although never passing it as on this occasion. As far as I understand, stocks sometimes fall back into their base after breaking out. Is it safe to buy now that it is close to the peak of it's handle again or should one wait and watch or ??? How do people handle this or do we think that this is just not a good one to buy. I managed to see a copy of IBD as I am in America for a few days and I see its quality of sponsorship was C, but the quality of the biggest holder was at least an A. Help on deciding this would be appreciated. Thanks again! Marc Marc E Laniado marclaniado@msn.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "John Adair" Subject: [CANSLIM] Re: [NON-CANSLIM] DOUBLE BOTTOM Date: 25 Apr 1999 16:48:53 -0500 Does anyone buy double bottoms. Kea didn't drop much on last Monday's dip and has formed a god double bottom and if the volume is good tomorrow I will expect a breakout from 22 3/4. ----- Original Message ----- Sent: Sunday, April 25, 1999 9:36 AM > Hi Marc, > > I used to avoid LLUR type charts as they rarely presented > any base, or at least one more than a week or so long. But I > have found many fit well into the momentum style of CANSLIM, > so long as they have top drawer RS and EPS, and "C" is also > strong. It also helps if "C" is good on a sequential qtrly > basis, and earnings forecast show a continuation of strong > growth expected. Volatility is key, if you see the pattern > changing, best to take your profits and avoid the future > risks. Ride 'em as long as the pattern is consistent, bail > when it changes. > > As far as a buy point is concerned, it can vary from trying > to catch a minor pullback to just buying them. In either > case, you need to keep a close watch, and a tight stop, as > you start off without any base to protect you to the > downside. If the momentum continues and the pattern remains > intact, eventually you can give them a little more room as > you build profits, but still should keep a fairly tight stop > as any variation in the pattern of a LLUR (which is marked > by very low volatility regardless of the mkt) should result > in a sell. This is true of a sharp spike upward even more > than any drop in price. > > Tom Worley > stkguru@netside.net > chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 > get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html > > > -----Original Message----- > From: Marc Laniado > To: CANSLIM DISCUSSION LIST > Date: Sunday, April 25, 1999 10:22 AM > Subject: Fw: [CANSLIM] New DGO list > > > Tom, > The LLUR list you give - how does that apply to CS? Do you > mean that one > could buy on a pull back with the order set above the > previous day's low or > do you just buy it? I am not quite sure how to apply it. > Thanks, > Marc > > Marc E Laniado > marclaniado@msn.com > Tel/Fax: +44 171 731 1354 > Mobile +44 777 553 1354 > > > > - > > - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Carter Diggs Subject: [CANSLIM] New DGO list Date: 25 Apr 1999 18:17:34 -0400 I've been licking my wounds for a while, but am going to get back to my education. I was reassessing how to build a watch list when I saw Tom's post about the new DGO list...to me it looks like an ideal first screen, but I don't get DG and am reluctant to put out the $...my current level of trading can't justify it and would like to keep my "tuition" at a reasonble level. I've been using the IBD weekend review but I honestly don't really understand how it's constructed. When they say the stocks are "shown by group relative strength", what do they mean? I would think there would be some reference to which group the stocks are in, if this were the case. More generally, does anyone know of a current source for asking (and getting answers to) such IBD questions? Tom, looking for you on ICQ. I stay invisible (multiuser machine). - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "David Barash" Subject: [CANSLIM] No messages? Date: 25 Apr 1999 18:39:16 -0400 I just joined the list this Friday and have gotten no messages. Am I not really on the list or are there really no messages over the weekend? Thanks. David - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "David Barash" Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] New DGO list Date: 25 Apr 1999 20:23:19 -0400 Tom, Forgive me. What's LLUR? Thanks. David -----Original Message----- [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of Tom Worley Sent: Sunday, April 25, 1999 9:21 AM Just finished a rapid review of the 186 stocks listed on the new list from DGO. While I don't plan on looking at every one in the future, did want to go thru the list at least once to see what picture emerged from this "screened for CANSLIM" quality list. Since the entire list was already pre-qualified for CANSLIM elements, I just wanted to look at the chart patterns, so turned off the data block and just scrolled thru the list. For the purposes of this evaluation, I also turned off all of my personal biases for industry and price, and just looked at the graph. No research, no technical analysis, just 5-15 seconds observing, so I'm making no recommendations, just pointing out a few that caught my attention. DECENT BASES: DY, MSS (tho low price), BBBY, FM, BCOM, BMET, GM LLUR: SDLI, UTX POSSIBLE BREAKOUTS OR B/O POTENTIAL: EFII, WAT, LUV, XTRM, HH, EL, BMET >From my evaluations this weekend, I expect next week will be my last time to post the DGO Highs list. I will continue to augment my watch list from stocks hitting new highs but not in the DG books, but can see no reason to continue looking at the DGO new highs list when this new list is so much better, and includes the CS new highs. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: LLUR (was Re: [CANSLIM] New DGO list) Date: 25 Apr 1999 21:22:40 -0400 Hi David, Guess this also answers your prior post on the lack of messages, it has been unusually quiet this weekend. LLUR is shorthand for a Lower Left to Upper Right chart pattern, marked by a smooth ascent with minimal volatility, a tight trading range in other words. The pattern should be established over a number of months minimum, and a year looks even better. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html -----Original Message----- Tom, Forgive me. What's LLUR? Thanks. David - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] New DGO list Date: 25 Apr 1999 21:27:35 -0400 Carter, That's why I suggested that IBD readers voice their interest to the paper on having it carried weekly there as well. That way you only need to know what day it's published, or borrow a copy, or go to the library, to get the list. Group Relative Strength (GRS) is a percentile ranking of the 199 groups done the same way as RS is for individual stocks. Weekend Review is simply ranking the stocks by their group strength, thus the strongest groups will be represented first. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html -----Original Message----- I've been licking my wounds for a while, but am going to get back to my education. I was reassessing how to build a watch list when I saw Tom's post about the new DGO list...to me it looks like an ideal first screen, but I don't get DG and am reluctant to put out the $...my current level of trading can't justify it and would like to keep my "tuition" at a reasonble level. I've been using the IBD weekend review but I honestly don't really understand how it's constructed. When they say the stocks are "shown by group relative strength", what do they mean? I would think there would be some reference to which group the stocks are in, if this were the case. More generally, does anyone know of a current source for asking (and getting answers to) such IBD questions? Tom, looking for you on ICQ. I stay invisible (multiuser machine). - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: KEA (was Re: [CANSLIM] Re: [NON-CANSLIM] DOUBLE BOTTOM) Date: 25 Apr 1999 21:37:36 -0400 John, First, be clear that KEA is not even close to being a viable CANSLIM stock at this time. Its RS is down to 8 in a group with a GRS of 77. Accum/dist is now a D, and up/down vol ratio is now 0.5. Second, if you are considering the two recent bottoms made in the past 3 weeks as the double bottom, I would disagree, at least for my purposes. The first of these lows was made on an uninteruppted slide from 35 to under 20, a bounce was eventually going to happen, and did, tho not on impressive volume. The second low looks to be simply as a failed rally as it did not undercut the first low, altho the vol did pick up. Since that low, the vol as it has rallied for the past week has been mostly under ADV. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html -----Original Message----- Does anyone buy double bottoms. Kea didn't drop much on last Monday's dip and has formed a god double bottom and if the volume is good tomorrow I will expect a breakout from 22 3/4. ----- Original Message ----- - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "David Barash" Subject: RE: LLUR (was Re: [CANSLIM] New DGO list) Date: 25 Apr 1999 21:52:20 -0400 Thank you, Tom: for both responses. Do you post your lists, especially your "decent bases" list, every week? I think your choices were great, particularly HH. David -----Original Message----- [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of Tom Worley Sent: Sunday, April 25, 1999 9:23 PM Hi David, Guess this also answers your prior post on the lack of messages, it has been unusually quiet this weekend. LLUR is shorthand for a Lower Left to Upper Right chart pattern, marked by a smooth ascent with minimal volatility, a tight trading range in other words. The pattern should be established over a number of months minimum, and a year looks even better. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html -----Original Message----- Tom, Forgive me. What's LLUR? Thanks. David - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] WTSLA Date: 25 Apr 1999 21:57:24 -0400 Wet Seal has most CS elements for consideration. The only sig fault I find in this regard is that management is reported only owning 1%, way too low for me. It is also not in the top five of its group. Chart wise it appears to have a failed rally. The breakout looks to have been on good vol, the following day also had good vol but failed to show further price gain, on Friday the drop was on slightly more than ADV. I would tend to expect a return to the base and some future attempt to break out. If you had only bot a partial position, this can present a chance to add more shares; if you missed it before, this could offer a 2nd entry point. However, in either case, I would wait until I saw evidence of a new breakout first. I only use one year charts normally, so can't comment on 3 year patterns. Personally, I think investors memory is too short for remembering beyond a year, if that long. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html -----Original Message----- Hi Tom - thanks for answering my question. I don't know what you think of WTSLA. WTSLA appeared to breakout this week, then fell back on some volume and then fell a little more on lower volume but not reaching its peak. It did form a cup with handle but a 3 year chart shows it has reached this resistance level before, although never passing it as on this occasion. As far as I understand, stocks sometimes fall back into their base after breaking out. Is it safe to buy now that it is close to the peak of it's handle again or should one wait and watch or ??? How do people handle this or do we think that this is just not a good one to buy. I managed to see a copy of IBD as I am in America for a few days and I see its quality of sponsorship was C, but the quality of the biggest holder was at least an A. Help on deciding this would be appreciated. Thanks again! Marc Marc E Laniado marclaniado@msn.com - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "B. K. Taylor" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] New DGO list Date: 25 Apr 1999 21:06:45 -0500 > > DECENT BASES: > DY, MSS (tho low price), BBBY, FM, BCOM, BMET, GM > > LLUR: > SDLI, UTX > > POSSIBLE BREAKOUTS OR B/O POTENTIAL: > EFII, WAT, LUV, XTRM, HH, EL, BMET > Tom, Could you explain to me what time frame you use when viewing graphs? DY looks to be a fairly decent LLUR when viewing a five year graph. Just trying to learn, Celie - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: LLUR (was Re: [CANSLIM] New DGO list) Date: 25 Apr 1999 22:04:03 -0400 Hi David, I tried to get permission to share this new list with the group, but it was denied. I have previously been culling the list of stocks in the DG (Daily Graphs) books for those with RS/EPS of 80 or better, and posting that list. My evaluation this weekend was geared towards helping me decide whether I needed to continue looking at the new highs list, since the new list incorporates those that I had been posting. The conclusion, since I also get daily new highs lists, is that I only need to look at the new list, and not all of it as I am only interested in small caps under $20. I haven't decided yet if I will replace my past "DGO New Highs" weekly post with a new "DGO Close to or At New Highs" as I don't want to commit to having to review all the charts on the list. This weekend, it only took me about 30 minutes to review all 186 charts, less time than I normally spend printing, reviewing and posting the New Highs list. So I may be able to continue posting something. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html -----Original Message----- Thank you, Tom: for both responses. Do you post your lists, especially your "decent bases" list, every week? I think your choices were great, particularly HH. David -----Original Message----- [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of Tom Worley Sent: Sunday, April 25, 1999 9:23 PM Hi David, Guess this also answers your prior post on the lack of messages, it has been unusually quiet this weekend. LLUR is shorthand for a Lower Left to Upper Right chart pattern, marked by a smooth ascent with minimal volatility, a tight trading range in other words. The pattern should be established over a number of months minimum, and a year looks even better. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html -----Original Message----- Tom, Forgive me. What's LLUR? Thanks. David - - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] New DGO list Date: 25 Apr 1999 22:11:51 -0400 Hi Celie, When viewed on a one year chart (all I normally use), DY has too much volatility to make my limits for a LLUR chart. Price swings and trading range are too great. When I am doing TA on a possible addition to my watch list, I start with a one year chart as well, then drop down to 3 months, then 1 month. Once on my watch or owned list, in timing my entry, hold and sell points I focus only on the 1 month chart for TA, but continue to use the 1 year charts from DGO. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html -----Original Message----- > > DECENT BASES: > DY, MSS (tho low price), BBBY, FM, BCOM, BMET, GM > > LLUR: > SDLI, UTX > > POSSIBLE BREAKOUTS OR B/O POTENTIAL: > EFII, WAT, LUV, XTRM, HH, EL, BMET > Tom, Could you explain to me what time frame you use when viewing graphs? DY looks to be a fairly decent LLUR when viewing a five year graph. Just trying to learn, Celie - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Dave Cameron Subject: [CANSLIM] Length of chart time (was: New DGO list) Date: 25 Apr 1999 21:41:55 -0500 On the subject of charting, and duration of a chart, Tom wrote: > > When I am doing TA on a possible addition to my watch list, > I start with a one year chart as well, then drop down to 3 > months, then 1 month. Once on my watch or owned list, in > timing my entry, hold and sell points I focus only on the 1 > month chart for TA, but continue to use the 1 year charts > from DGO. I have the utmost respect for Tom. This, in fact, is a good way to look at charts. Yet, there are many different approaches. I'd like to share mine. I have found that starting with a 2-year weekly chart gives me the best starting point. Some stocks have a pattern which exceeds 12 mos. Then, after narrowing down a bit, I move to a 6-mo daily chart. If you subscribe to DGO, you get through 1-yr charts. I've found the greatest advantage is all the additional information they give on earnings, RS, EPS, group strength, shares outstanding, % owned by funds etc. But.... I find their charts to be difficult to grasp intuitively (at least the daily ones). From a different perspective, Dave Cameron dfcameron@ameritech.net > - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Length of chart time (was: New DGO list) Date: 25 Apr 1999 22:54:07 -0400 I must agree, Dave. As an active broker with access to most of the Wm O'Neil products, I preferred the five year, weekly log charts. I found these far more useful and easy to read. However, I don't know if I would still find that to be the case today in a far more volatile mkt. I admit to sacrificing some information in limiting my horizon to one year, in return for all the CS data from DGO. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html -----Original Message----- On the subject of charting, and duration of a chart, Tom wrote: > > When I am doing TA on a possible addition to my watch list, > I start with a one year chart as well, then drop down to 3 > months, then 1 month. Once on my watch or owned list, in > timing my entry, hold and sell points I focus only on the 1 > month chart for TA, but continue to use the 1 year charts > from DGO. I have the utmost respect for Tom. This, in fact, is a good way to look at charts. Yet, there are many different approaches. I'd like to share mine. I have found that starting with a 2-year weekly chart gives me the best starting point. Some stocks have a pattern which exceeds 12 mos. Then, after narrowing down a bit, I move to a 6-mo daily chart. If you subscribe to DGO, you get through 1-yr charts. I've found the greatest advantage is all the additional information they give on earnings, RS, EPS, group strength, shares outstanding, % owned by funds etc. But.... I find their charts to be difficult to grasp intuitively (at least the daily ones). >From a different perspective, Dave Cameron dfcameron@ameritech.net > - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Ronald J. Russell, Jr." Subject: [CANSLIM] Weekly Stock List - April 23, 1999 - Condensed Version Date: 25 Apr 1999 22:07:06 -0400 Hi All, We added a few to 179 this past week. So much for my prediction last week based on Monday's action... As a reminder, the selection criteria are: EPS > 69 RS > 84 GRS > 59 A/D = "A" or "B" CLOSE > 10.00 30 Day ADV > 75,000 Trade well, Ron Symbol EPS RS GRS ERG A/D Close 30 ADV ABDR 97 94 82 273 A $ 78.000 169,210 ADBE 92 91 77 260 A $ 63.500 934,677 ADCT 96 91 94 281 A $ 46.630 1,954,780 ADRX 77 95 84 256 B $ 73.750 149,397 ADVS 97 88 92 277 A $ 59.000 83,670 AGN 80 93 69 242 B $ 88.130 410,010 AGPH 72 92 85 249 A $ 58.500 513,213 AHAA 72 97 93 262 A $ 28.750 266,620 ALD 84 88 61 233 B $ 55.810 2,093,737 ALNT 76 90 81 247 A $ 46.000 206,497 ALTR 90 94 93 277 A $ 78.500 2,317,407 AMGN 93 93 85 271 A $ 65.130 5,456,544 ANF 99 96 91 286 A $ 95.880 522,717 AOL 77 99 99 275 A $ 147.000 27,011,316 ARMHY 80 97 93 270 A $ 35.000 77,857 ASND 97 95 93 285 A $ 97.130 4,057,340 ASTE 80 96 65 241 A $ 41.310 133,880 AT 80 89 81 250 A $ 70.880 751,963 ATI 90 91 94 275 A $ 96.250 2,585,180 ATW 82 86 63 231 B $ 36.000 131,883 AXP 89 88 89 266 A $ 135.380 1,786,250 BBBY 97 89 71 257 A $ 37.810 1,584,753 BBY 74 96 95 265 B $ 51.000 1,726,990 BGF 95 86 92 273 A $ 33.500 334,480 BID 76 91 71 238 A $ 37.940 279,487 BJ 87 88 86 261 B $ 27.060 315,207 BOBJ 96 86 77 259 A $ 24.250 596,390 BRCM 80 95 93 268 A $ 68.750 1,542,383 BSX 92 92 69 253 A $ 43.250 2,265,443 BVSN 77 98 98 273 B $ 64.380 1,024,590 BXM 98 93 85 276 A $ 74.000 190,237 CCL 95 85 83 263 A $ 47.190 1,274,713 CCRD 77 86 77 240 A $ 46.380 424,983 CDWC 98 89 65 252 A $ 88.250 189,787 CEFT 98 85 89 272 A $ 35.130 783,790 CHCS 86 93 91 270 A $ 24.750 98,047 CLE 88 94 90 272 A $ 32.000 547,367 CLFY 97 92 77 266 B $ 24.130 453,570 CMGI 77 99 98 274 A $ 258.880 4,327,300 COF 87 92 89 268 A $ 164.250 492,100 COST 85 90 86 261 B $ 87.130 1,953,327 CPRT 94 96 82 272 B $ 21.810 162,220 CPWM 88 93 70 251 B $ 33.250 277,110 CREE 99 95 93 287 A $ 44.810 226,400 CSCO 97 94 93 284 A $ 117.380 12,453,595 CSN 83 93 81 257 A $ 22.250 490,760 CTL 92 86 95 273 A $ 44.630 830,847 CTV 77 86 89 252 B $ 21.060 400,480 DELL 99 91 72 262 A $ 43.000 33,093,060 DG 92 86 86 264 A $ 33.560 657,813 DH 88 90 86 264 B $ 69.880 1,552,963 DHR 90 92 60 242 A $ 64.130 376,280 DMMC 95 88 87 270 A $ 22.560 160,683 DSP 93 95 93 281 A $ 27.000 585,390 EFII 96 96 77 269 A $ 46.630 951,373 EMC 96 95 69 260 A $ 111.000 5,255,341 ESRX 97 93 60 250 A $ 75.310 353,283 EUSA 89 92 88 269 A $ 34.630 163,943 EXPD 91 92 77 260 B $ 63.250 146,673 FDC 79 91 89 259 B $ 44.560 1,730,847 FLEX 97 95 88 280 A $ 47.130 923,403 FM 97 87 76 260 A $ 25.190 195,383 FNDTF 82 97 92 271 A $ 36.750 265,760 FON 74 92 95 261 B $ 108.060 1,264,520 FORE 70 86 93 249 B $ 24.500 6,688,466 FRO 71 94 95 260 B $ 54.250 2,456,963 GCO 90 90 90 270 B $ 11.250 168,370 GDT 86 91 69 246 A $ 59.750 1,405,557 GEOC 84 98 77 259 A $ 57.810 680,370 GIC 80 88 94 262 B $ 36.500 1,083,547 GICOF 98 96 95 289 A $ 16.500 124,073 GILTF 97 85 94 276 A $ 56.750 198,153 GNSS 84 94 93 271 A $ 22.250 499,057 GPS 96 94 91 281 A $ 69.440 1,678,827 GUC 93 92 91 276 A $ 77.130 755,923 HAS 84 89 79 252 B $ 32.880 956,417 HDI 94 91 75 260 A $ 60.750 488,670 HET 72 87 84 243 A $ 23.000 821,897 HQ 82 86 97 265 A $ 34.560 257,817 IBI 86 95 91 272 A $ 48.810 389,770 IBM 92 89 72 253 B $ 199.750 5,574,176 INSS 99 86 66 251 A $ 37.130 409,820 ITGI 98 93 82 273 A $ 60.560 103,657 JAKK 99 96 79 274 A $ 23.250 194,847 JBL 82 95 88 265 A $ 41.560 873,957 JEF 80 89 97 266 B $ 59.380 142,970 KSWS 77 99 90 266 A $ 42.130 362,573 KWP 81 87 64 232 A $ 36.000 919,227 LEVL 90 94 93 277 A $ 51.130 1,012,733 LIN 95 87 70 252 B $ 42.190 246,687 LLTC 79 94 93 266 A $ 62.750 1,476,710 LM 86 86 97 269 A $ 37.440 180,693 LU 97 89 94 280 A $ 61.060 15,349,735 LUV 92 93 66 251 A $ 35.130 1,580,927 LXK 96 93 85 274 A $ 118.940 688,687 MAR 90 87 75 252 B $ 40.940 550,110 MARG 95 97 82 274 A $ 19.630 159,873 MCD 76 86 76 238 A $ 44.130 3,353,896 MCHP 90 86 69 245 A $ 37.940 630,497 MCRL 94 93 93 280 A $ 61.380 205,900 MEDI 77 92 85 254 B $ 55.500 1,204,507 MEDQ 99 86 82 267 B $ 35.750 475,800 MNMD 98 96 69 263 A $ 65.380 219,450 MSFT 99 90 96 285 A $ 86.000 31,587,450 MSPG 77 97 99 273 B $ 108.250 1,504,517 MTRS 98 86 89 273 A $ 64.380 416,747 MTW 96 89 61 246 A $ 35.190 86,148 MXIM 89 94 93 276 A $ 64.310 1,507,857 NAV 94 94 76 264 A $ 47.810 689,410 NDB 80 99 97 276 B $ 55.500 1,966,057 NEON 80 95 77 252 A $ 42.500 1,385,327 NOK 97 94 94 285 A $ 79.190 3,100,107 NOVL 77 95 93 265 B $ 24.130 5,872,776 NPCI 76 88 76 240 B $ 15.750 144,483 NSOL 84 98 98 280 A $ 80.000 4,175,740 NT 88 90 94 272 B $ 72.130 1,884,820 NTAP 98 96 69 263 A $ 55.500 1,173,890 OCLI 89 98 73 260 B $ 50.630 133,317 OMC 92 90 82 264 A $ 76.500 757,763 ORBK 91 86 78 255 A $ 46.380 95,043 OSSI 90 93 76 259 A $ 38.380 639,903 OSTE 72 92 69 233 A $ 30.750 188,642 PCLE 71 91 68 230 A $ 55.000 234,580 PEGS 80 93 82 255 A $ 39.130 133,217 PHCC 99 96 60 255 B $ 49.060 115,523 PKN 77 92 73 242 B $ 113.500 229,343 PKX 90 94 70 254 B $ 25.940 643,773 PLCE 99 99 91 289 A $ 39.000 346,287 PLCM 84 90 94 268 A $ 25.500 1,066,913 PLXS 98 85 93 276 B $ 33.500 81,723 POS 93 93 82 268 A $ 91.000 139,563 POWI 80 97 88 265 B $ 39.500 277,183 PROG 92 90 87 269 B $ 12.940 111,963 PSUN 93 91 91 275 A $ 37.000 412,993 PVN 98 97 89 284 A $ 130.560 892,733 QCOM 96 99 94 289 B $ 190.880 4,081,580 QLGC 98 95 93 286 A $ 65.000 430,070 RFMD 82 99 89 270 A $ 59.750 730,923 SAH 91 89 71 251 A $ 16.130 86,077 SANM 91 88 88 267 A $ 65.500 1,002,530 SBUX 96 89 76 261 B $ 32.000 1,657,713 SCH 97 99 97 293 A $ 120.690 4,193,450 SDLI 93 99 93 285 A $ 97.250 304,687 SEBL 99 88 77 264 A $ 38.310 1,690,840 SLR 96 94 89 279 A $ 49.880 1,449,210 SNTC 70 93 74 237 B $ 78.940 161,717 SONC 91 88 76 255 A $ 29.000 121,973 SORC 72 91 82 245 A $ 11.190 102,153 SRT 95 89 82 266 A $ 16.060 85,037 SUNW 94 97 72 263 A $ 63.310 16,631,503 SWS 92 95 97 284 A $ 41.560 347,383 TAGS 97 95 63 255 A $ 41.880 120,380 TAN 82 91 65 238 A $ 73.380 825,617 TCAT 85 93 96 274 A $ 49.940 329,047 TIF 90 94 90 274 A $ 79.000 222,453 TJX 92 88 91 271 B $ 34.250 1,037,550 TLAB 99 93 94 286 A $ 115.380 2,738,800 TMPW 88 97 82 267 A $ 71.500 672,813 TQNT 91 91 93 275 B $ 30.750 197,463 TRB 84 88 62 234 B $ 84.440 427,157 TRK 87 94 83 264 B $ 41.440 121,390 TSFW 89 90 77 256 B $ 21.130 498,057 TVGIA 96 97 91 284 A $ 42.750 246,180 TXCC 77 96 93 266 A $ 38.750 285,577 TYC 97 87 61 245 A $ 82.880 5,587,952 UNPH 96 96 94 286 A $ 120.880 898,523 UVN 82 94 91 267 B $ 59.190 341,163 VISX 99 99 97 295 A $ 117.690 1,104,810 VOD 97 86 94 277 A $ 184.130 580,210 VRTS 99 90 77 266 A $ 76.130 853,240 VTSS 97 90 93 280 A $ 50.500 1,719,273 WAT 98 93 71 262 A $ 108.750 117,783 WCOM 82 93 95 270 B $ 91.190 12,456,561 WMT 87 92 86 265 B $ 50.940 8,729,943 WTSLA 92 90 91 273 A $ 41.250 145,420 XLNX 89 96 93 278 A $ 48.380 3,555,170 XYLN 75 95 93 263 A $ 36.880 685,727 YHOO 77 99 99 275 A $ 187.690 8,130,940 ZQK 96 95 63 254 A $ 40.250 124,697 - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Luke Lang Subject: [CANSLIM] NASDAQ rising to new high on falling volume Date: 26 Apr 1999 23:26:51 -0700 (PDT) I just noticed this happening over the last week. I also noticed the lack of posting today. Is the server down or is this list quiet near market tops? Is anyone concerned about the subject matter? Do you have any suggestions as to what to look for in the near future? Thanks. Best regards, Luke Lang _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "mikelu" Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] NASDAQ rising to new high on falling volume Date: 27 Apr 1999 02:26:00 -0700 Last week did show declining volume following the huge volume of the previous two weeks, but I don't know how to interpret volume around these big spikes. At least Monday's volume was above Friday's. Mike -----Original Message----- [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of Luke Lang Sent: Monday, April 26, 1999 11:27 PM I just noticed this happening over the last week. I also noticed the lack of posting today. Is the server down or is this list quiet near market tops? Is anyone concerned about the subject matter? Do you have any suggestions as to what to look for in the near future? Thanks. Best regards, Luke Lang _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: [CANSLIM] On Volume and New Highs Date: 27 Apr 1999 06:40:52 -0400 I took a quick look around at the past 16 trading days volume. Noted that on Nasdaq all 16 days exceeded daily average. On NYSE it was 12 of those 16 days, and on R2000 it was 15 out of 16. I also took a look at the "quality" of that volume. For the past week, up vol on Naz has been steady at high levels, while down vol has been dropping. Shows me that fresh money is pouring in, the volume is not just coming from selling one stock for another. On NYSE, the past week shows up vol declining, while down vol increasing. Just the reverse of Naz, and suggests to me money is already rotating out of the cyclicals and into techs. Since more cyclicals and fewer techs are NYSE listed, and just the reverse on Naz, this theory supports the pattern on Naz of fresh money coming in. On both NYSE and Naz, the mkt is currently significantly overbot, more so on NYSE. When volume is consistently running well over daily average, one's days comparison to another loses a lot of its significance for me. Shouldn't be ignored, but I try to watch the trends more, and the daily activities less. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: mckeen@ix.netcom.com Subject: [CANSLIM] Length of Chart Time Date: 27 Apr 1999 06:31:42 -0500 (CDT) Hi Tom and Dave, Thanks for sharing your approaches to reading charts. Very valuable. Regards, Mary - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "David Barash" Subject: [CANSLIM] DG Date: 27 Apr 1999 08:37:39 -0400 Any opinions on DG today? Looks like it's making a handle and touching the 50 MA. David Barash dbarash@massmed.org - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Johan Van Houtven Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] NASDAQ rising to new high on falling volume Date: 27 Apr 1999 09:44:01 +0200 Luke, As you will recall some of us on the list raised cash a week or two ago. Last week (04/20) the NASDAQ reversed and never looked back. That was a pretty impressive bounce IMO! If one started counting for the 1% on volume day again (which one most probably shouldn't have to look for as the old signal has not been violated yet), then yesterday (04/26) was a buy signal, i.e. time to look for stocks that emerge for a solid base. The NAZ is now near the upper Bollinger band, typically a place to a least take a rest. At 11:26 PM 26/04/99 -0700, you wrote: >I just noticed this happening over the last week. I also noticed the >lack of posting today. Is the server down or is this list quiet near >market tops? Is anyone concerned about the subject matter? Do you >have any suggestions as to what to look for in the near future? Thanks. > >Best regards, >Luke Lang > > > > >_________________________________________________________ >DO YOU YAHOO!? >Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com > > >- > > -- Johan Van Houtven - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] DG Date: 27 Apr 1999 23:05:46 -0400 Hi David, As much as I tried to stretch my imagination, using DGO to study DG (nice twist on initials, huh?), I couldn't see a cup and handle. If you are referring to the period since late Feb as a "handle", my comments would be that it's been too long a period, and too rough (volatile) to consider as any handle. It's also been trending up. As for today's performance, I see a 10% spike on 2X ADV. Don't know if there was any news to account for such a strong move, but the retailers have been showing strength. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html -----Original Message----- Any opinions on DG today? Looks like it's making a handle and touching the 50 MA. David Barash dbarash@massmed.org - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "David Barash" Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] DG Date: 27 Apr 1999 23:43:22 -0400 Would you consider that we've now formed the base of a cup and today's action is the right side of the cup with a handle to come? -----Original Message----- [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of Tom Worley Sent: Tuesday, April 27, 1999 11:06 PM Hi David, As much as I tried to stretch my imagination, using DGO to study DG (nice twist on initials, huh?), I couldn't see a cup and handle. If you are referring to the period since late Feb as a "handle", my comments would be that it's been too long a period, and too rough (volatile) to consider as any handle. It's also been trending up. As for today's performance, I see a 10% spike on 2X ADV. Don't know if there was any news to account for such a strong move, but the retailers have been showing strength. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html -----Original Message----- Any opinions on DG today? Looks like it's making a handle and touching the 50 MA. David Barash dbarash@massmed.org - - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] DG Date: 28 Apr 1999 00:41:07 -0400 David, Let me repeat, a one day, 10% spike in my opinion constitutes nothing but a one day, 10% spike. Looking at a one year chart, I can see your hopes for a cup and handle here. But for me personally, the pattern, esp in what you want to consider a handle, or a right side of cup with handle forming, is just too volatile. To count this chart as a c&h, you have got to use most of an entire one year chart, for me that's simply too long a time period. That's not saying it's not a cup and possible handle, just that I place little confidence in this type of pattern needing so long a time period to form. It looks to me more like a dog of the retail group being dragged upwards by the rest of the group. If you already own it, I hope for your sake I am proven wrong. But today's spike looks to me simply like that, a spike. I would place no bets on whether or not it lasts. It would not be, for me, and entry signal. Nor, if I owned it already, necessarily a signal to sell. It is ambiguous, but doesn't affirm any valid chart pattern by itself. The only positive signal I could infer is that the past week of trading finally touched the 50 dma, and the spike took off from there. And the spike occurred on the second day of above avg volume. Next earnings (Q1) are due 5/12, maybe somebody's reading something into how the first qtr went. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html -----Original Message----- Would you consider that we've now formed the base of a cup and today's action is the right side of the cup with a handle to come? -----Original Message----- [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of Tom Worley Sent: Tuesday, April 27, 1999 11:06 PM Hi David, As much as I tried to stretch my imagination, using DGO to study DG (nice twist on initials, huh?), I couldn't see a cup and handle. If you are referring to the period since late Feb as a "handle", my comments would be that it's been too long a period, and too rough (volatile) to consider as any handle. It's also been trending up. As for today's performance, I see a 10% spike on 2X ADV. Don't know if there was any news to account for such a strong move, but the retailers have been showing strength. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html -----Original Message----- Any opinions on DG today? Looks like it's making a handle and touching the 50 MA. David Barash dbarash@massmed.org - - - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "David Barash" Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] DG Date: 28 Apr 1999 00:53:08 -0400 Thanks, Tom. I'm just beginning to try to figure this out. I appreciate your helpfulness and honesty. What do you think of HH? -----Original Message----- [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of Tom Worley Sent: Wednesday, April 28, 1999 12:41 AM David, Let me repeat, a one day, 10% spike in my opinion constitutes nothing but a one day, 10% spike. Looking at a one year chart, I can see your hopes for a cup and handle here. But for me personally, the pattern, esp in what you want to consider a handle, or a right side of cup with handle forming, is just too volatile. To count this chart as a c&h, you have got to use most of an entire one year chart, for me that's simply too long a time period. That's not saying it's not a cup and possible handle, just that I place little confidence in this type of pattern needing so long a time period to form. It looks to me more like a dog of the retail group being dragged upwards by the rest of the group. If you already own it, I hope for your sake I am proven wrong. But today's spike looks to me simply like that, a spike. I would place no bets on whether or not it lasts. It would not be, for me, and entry signal. Nor, if I owned it already, necessarily a signal to sell. It is ambiguous, but doesn't affirm any valid chart pattern by itself. The only positive signal I could infer is that the past week of trading finally touched the 50 dma, and the spike took off from there. And the spike occurred on the second day of above avg volume. Next earnings (Q1) are due 5/12, maybe somebody's reading something into how the first qtr went. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html -----Original Message----- Would you consider that we've now formed the base of a cup and today's action is the right side of the cup with a handle to come? -----Original Message----- [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of Tom Worley Sent: Tuesday, April 27, 1999 11:06 PM Hi David, As much as I tried to stretch my imagination, using DGO to study DG (nice twist on initials, huh?), I couldn't see a cup and handle. If you are referring to the period since late Feb as a "handle", my comments would be that it's been too long a period, and too rough (volatile) to consider as any handle. It's also been trending up. As for today's performance, I see a 10% spike on 2X ADV. Don't know if there was any news to account for such a strong move, but the retailers have been showing strength. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html -----Original Message----- Any opinions on DG today? Looks like it's making a handle and touching the 50 MA. David Barash dbarash@massmed.org - - - - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: PPNewell@aol.com Subject: [CANSLIM] David Ryan Comments on CBS Marketwatch Date: 27 Apr 1999 20:21:27 EDT Interesting: One player voiced concern with the technical health of the Nasdaq's five-day rally. "Any time something drops on heavier volume and rallies on lighter volume you've got to question whether maybe we've gone a little too far and we need to pull back," said David Ryan, president of Ryan Capital Management. Ryan noted that "you had huge volume down off the April 13-14 high. The Nasdaq came down on 1.3 billion shares and then the next day it was 1.4 billion shares. After that, the market fell for four more days before rallying for five days. "But the rally has been on lighter volume each day and it's been on volume lighter than in three of the four selloff days from April 13 to April 19." Tuesday's market action hewed to a recent trend in which leadership emanates from either the technology sector or the cyclical sector, but not both. Within the cyclical area, basic resource groups like the aluminums, steels, chemicals, and oils acted well. Last week, the shares traded sideways in quieter dealings after breaking out of trading ranges on big volume the prior week. The catalyst for the recent strength has been optimism that global economic growth will pick up in the second half of 1999 and in 2000. Peter Newell - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: IMF STAFF Subject: [CANSLIM] Re: Cup & Handle Screening Tool Date: 28 Apr 1999 08:16:54 -0700 We are looking for users to beta-test our cup & handle screening tool which will be complete in about 6 to 8 weeks. You will be able to search on a daily basis for cup & handle breakouts for different time periods.. You will be able to search for 3 month C&H breakouts, 6 month, 1 year C&H breakouts, ect... If you are interested in helping us beta test this feature, send e-mail to cuphandles@imfnet.com In the mean time you can use our other screening tools which you can do all the Canslim searches with and more at http://www.stocktables.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Tim Fisher Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] HH Date: 28 Apr 1999 10:05:14 -0700 I own HH and although it has behaved fairly since the breakout months ago, it has not followed through and IMHO is not going anywhere in the near future. I'm holding since it has stayed well above my stop & I can see no reason to sell it. On 09:53 PM 4/27/99 , David Barash Said: >Thanks, Tom. I'm just beginning to try to figure this out. I appreciate >your helpfulness and honesty. What do you think of HH? > Tim Fisher Ore-Rock-On and Pacific Fishery Biologists WWW Sites Tim@OreRockOn.com WWW: http://OreRockOn.com See naked fish and rocks! - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: dbphoenix Subject: [CANSLIM] Re: David Ryan Comments on CBS Marketwatch Date: 28 Apr 1999 11:00:47 -0700 (PDT) <> One must also consider where that volume is coming from. More than a few people have pointed out that the influence of online trading - particularly daytrading - has complicated the process of interpreting volume patterns in the major indexes, particularly the Naz. If, for example, you separate the top 10 stocks in the NDX from the remaining 90, the former have been rising on declining volume, but the latter have been rising on much stronger volume. A correction in the Internet stocks, or in the Nasdaq "market", may therefore mean nothing more than a decline in a relative handful of stocks. Instead of looking for "distribution", one might be wiser to determine exactly where that distribution is and where the money is going. In other words, a correction in over-extended Internets may cause a correction in the Naz Composite Average, but may have no effect on the thousands of Nasdaq stocks which have little or nothing to do with the Internet and/or which are not overextended. Oil stocks, for example, continue to outperform Internet stocks, just as they have done for two months, but hardly anyone notices because they're so focused on the major market average. --Db === "Lessons are repeated until they are learned." http://home.talkcity.com//MoneySt/dbphoenix/ _________________________________________________________ Do You Yahoo!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "David Barash" Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] HH Date: 28 Apr 1999 23:28:20 -0400 Tim, Thanks for the feedback. What's IMHO though? David -----Original Message----- [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of Tim Fisher Sent: Wednesday, April 28, 1999 1:05 PM I own HH and although it has behaved fairly since the breakout months ago, it has not followed through and IMHO is not going anywhere in the near future. I'm holding since it has stayed well above my stop & I can see no reason to sell it. On 09:53 PM 4/27/99 , David Barash Said: >Thanks, Tom. I'm just beginning to try to figure this out. I appreciate >your helpfulness and honesty. What do you think of HH? > Tim Fisher Ore-Rock-On and Pacific Fishery Biologists WWW Sites Tim@OreRockOn.com WWW: http://OreRockOn.com See naked fish and rocks! - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: HH (was Re: [CANSLIM] DG) Date: 29 Apr 1999 00:19:11 -0400 David, Before I voice my opinion on HH, I would be interested in what you think about it. That's the best way you will learn, and find out how well you are understanding CANSLIM. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html -----Original Message----- Thanks, Tom. I'm just beginning to try to figure this out. I appreciate your helpfulness and honesty. What do you think of HH? -----Original Message----- [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of Tom Worley Sent: Wednesday, April 28, 1999 12:41 AM David, Let me repeat, a one day, 10% spike in my opinion constitutes nothing but a one day, 10% spike. Looking at a one year chart, I can see your hopes for a cup and handle here. But for me personally, the pattern, esp in what you want to consider a handle, or a right side of cup with handle forming, is just too volatile. To count this chart as a c&h, you have got to use most of an entire one year chart, for me that's simply too long a time period. That's not saying it's not a cup and possible handle, just that I place little confidence in this type of pattern needing so long a time period to form. It looks to me more like a dog of the retail group being dragged upwards by the rest of the group. If you already own it, I hope for your sake I am proven wrong. But today's spike looks to me simply like that, a spike. I would place no bets on whether or not it lasts. It would not be, for me, and entry signal. Nor, if I owned it already, necessarily a signal to sell. It is ambiguous, but doesn't affirm any valid chart pattern by itself. The only positive signal I could infer is that the past week of trading finally touched the 50 dma, and the spike took off from there. And the spike occurred on the second day of above avg volume. Next earnings (Q1) are due 5/12, maybe somebody's reading something into how the first qtr went. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html -----Original Message----- Would you consider that we've now formed the base of a cup and today's action is the right side of the cup with a handle to come? -----Original Message----- [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of Tom Worley Sent: Tuesday, April 27, 1999 11:06 PM Hi David, As much as I tried to stretch my imagination, using DGO to study DG (nice twist on initials, huh?), I couldn't see a cup and handle. If you are referring to the period since late Feb as a "handle", my comments would be that it's been too long a period, and too rough (volatile) to consider as any handle. It's also been trending up. As for today's performance, I see a 10% spike on 2X ADV. Don't know if there was any news to account for such a strong move, but the retailers have been showing strength. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html -----Original Message----- Any opinions on DG today? Looks like it's making a handle and touching the 50 MA. David Barash dbarash@massmed.org - - - - - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "David Barash" Subject: RE: HH (was Re: [CANSLIM] DG) Date: 29 Apr 1999 00:47:54 -0400 tom, I see it as a series of cups and handles: 1) Nov-Dec; 2) Feb-Mar 3); April. I suppose this also looks like a stair-step pattern. Thanks. David -----Original Message----- [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of Tom Worley Sent: Thursday, April 29, 1999 12:19 AM David, Before I voice my opinion on HH, I would be interested in what you think about it. That's the best way you will learn, and find out how well you are understanding CANSLIM. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html -----Original Message----- Thanks, Tom. I'm just beginning to try to figure this out. I appreciate your helpfulness and honesty. What do you think of HH? -----Original Message----- [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of Tom Worley Sent: Wednesday, April 28, 1999 12:41 AM David, Let me repeat, a one day, 10% spike in my opinion constitutes nothing but a one day, 10% spike. Looking at a one year chart, I can see your hopes for a cup and handle here. But for me personally, the pattern, esp in what you want to consider a handle, or a right side of cup with handle forming, is just too volatile. To count this chart as a c&h, you have got to use most of an entire one year chart, for me that's simply too long a time period. That's not saying it's not a cup and possible handle, just that I place little confidence in this type of pattern needing so long a time period to form. It looks to me more like a dog of the retail group being dragged upwards by the rest of the group. If you already own it, I hope for your sake I am proven wrong. But today's spike looks to me simply like that, a spike. I would place no bets on whether or not it lasts. It would not be, for me, and entry signal. Nor, if I owned it already, necessarily a signal to sell. It is ambiguous, but doesn't affirm any valid chart pattern by itself. The only positive signal I could infer is that the past week of trading finally touched the 50 dma, and the spike took off from there. And the spike occurred on the second day of above avg volume. Next earnings (Q1) are due 5/12, maybe somebody's reading something into how the first qtr went. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html -----Original Message----- Would you consider that we've now formed the base of a cup and today's action is the right side of the cup with a handle to come? -----Original Message----- [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of Tom Worley Sent: Tuesday, April 27, 1999 11:06 PM Hi David, As much as I tried to stretch my imagination, using DGO to study DG (nice twist on initials, huh?), I couldn't see a cup and handle. If you are referring to the period since late Feb as a "handle", my comments would be that it's been too long a period, and too rough (volatile) to consider as any handle. It's also been trending up. As for today's performance, I see a 10% spike on 2X ADV. Don't know if there was any news to account for such a strong move, but the retailers have been showing strength. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html -----Original Message----- Any opinions on DG today? Looks like it's making a handle and touching the 50 MA. David Barash dbarash@massmed.org - - - - - - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: HH (was Re: [CANSLIM] DG) Date: 29 Apr 1999 01:23:39 -0400 Hi David, I will be brief, as it's late, I haven't yet eaten today, and gotta be back up in another 4 hours or so. As a reminder, I am only looking at the one year chart at DGO. In that time period, I see nothing resembling a c&h. I do see a decent double bottom occurring in the July/Sept period, with strong selloff on the 2nd bottom, followed by a steady and volume driven rally, short and reasonable (healthy) correction in Nov, with a subsequent rally from there. Without some research, I can't account for the sharp drop in Feb, however it was on quite light vol, so may have been little more than profit taking by investors bored by the base it was then in. In any case, it recovered on stronger vol and is now basing even higher than before, so may now be following more of a staircase pattern, altho somewhat elongated. A quick review shows that it meets most, if not all, of the elements of CANSLIM. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html -----Original Message----- tom, I see it as a series of cups and handles: 1) Nov-Dec; 2) Feb-Mar 3); April. I suppose this also looks like a stair-step pattern. Thanks. David -----Original Message----- [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of Tom Worley Sent: Thursday, April 29, 1999 12:19 AM David, Before I voice my opinion on HH, I would be interested in what you think about it. That's the best way you will learn, and find out how well you are understanding CANSLIM. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html -----Original Message----- Thanks, Tom. I'm just beginning to try to figure this out. I appreciate your helpfulness and honesty. What do you think of HH? -----Original Message----- [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of Tom Worley Sent: Wednesday, April 28, 1999 12:41 AM David, Let me repeat, a one day, 10% spike in my opinion constitutes nothing but a one day, 10% spike. Looking at a one year chart, I can see your hopes for a cup and handle here. But for me personally, the pattern, esp in what you want to consider a handle, or a right side of cup with handle forming, is just too volatile. To count this chart as a c&h, you have got to use most of an entire one year chart, for me that's simply too long a time period. That's not saying it's not a cup and possible handle, just that I place little confidence in this type of pattern needing so long a time period to form. It looks to me more like a dog of the retail group being dragged upwards by the rest of the group. If you already own it, I hope for your sake I am proven wrong. But today's spike looks to me simply like that, a spike. I would place no bets on whether or not it lasts. It would not be, for me, and entry signal. Nor, if I owned it already, necessarily a signal to sell. It is ambiguous, but doesn't affirm any valid chart pattern by itself. The only positive signal I could infer is that the past week of trading finally touched the 50 dma, and the spike took off from there. And the spike occurred on the second day of above avg volume. Next earnings (Q1) are due 5/12, maybe somebody's reading something into how the first qtr went. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html -----Original Message----- Would you consider that we've now formed the base of a cup and today's action is the right side of the cup with a handle to come? -----Original Message----- [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of Tom Worley Sent: Tuesday, April 27, 1999 11:06 PM Hi David, As much as I tried to stretch my imagination, using DGO to study DG (nice twist on initials, huh?), I couldn't see a cup and handle. If you are referring to the period since late Feb as a "handle", my comments would be that it's been too long a period, and too rough (volatile) to consider as any handle. It's also been trending up. As for today's performance, I see a 10% spike on 2X ADV. Don't know if there was any news to account for such a strong move, but the retailers have been showing strength. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html -----Original Message----- Any opinions on DG today? Looks like it's making a handle and touching the 50 MA. David Barash dbarash@massmed.org - - - - - - - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Tim Fisher Subject: Re: HH (was Re: [CANSLIM] DG) Date: 29 Apr 1999 06:29:50 -0700 It was on a split day. Remember the confusion when TMBS split & the price spike/drop? Same thing with HH only the spike was teeny & the drop was large. I saw it happening (got lucky) and removed my stop for the day. It cuts my Killer CASLI scan so IMO it meets all the elements except price, which after the split is (obviously) under $20. At 01:23 AM 4/29/99 -0400, you wrote: >Hi David, >Without some research, I can't account for the sharp >drop in Feb, however it was on quite light vol, so may have >been little more than profit taking by investors bored by >the base it was then in. In any case, it recovered on >stronger vol and is now basing even higher than before, so >may now be following more of a staircase pattern, altho >somewhat elongated. > >A quick review shows that it meets most, if not all, of the >elements of CANSLIM. > >Tom Worley >stkguru@netside.net >chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 >get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html > Tim Fisher, 1995 President, Pacific Fishery Biologists Ore-ROCK-On Rockhounding Web Site PFB Information mailto:tim@OreRockOn.com WWW http://OreRockOn.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Connie Mack Rea Subject: [CANSLIM] Strategy for buying gaps. [Connie Mack] Date: 29 Apr 1999 18:42:22 -0400 Here is a nice little essay on gaps. A Gap occurs when today's opening price is either higher than yesterday's high price (Gap Up) or lower than yesterday's low price (Gap Down) . There are six primary strategies used to play Gaps, four with buy criteria and two with short criteria. They are as follows (terms and definitions are defined at the bottom): Full Gap Down: Buy If a stock's opening price is less than yesterday's low, set a buy stop equal to two ticks more than yesterday's low. Modified Gap Down: Buy If a stock's opening price is less than yesterday's low, revisit the 1 minute chart after 10:30 am and set a buy stop equal to the average of the open and low price achieved in the first hour of trading. This method recommends that the projected daily volume is double the 5 day average. Full Gap Up: Buy If a stock's opening price is greater than yesterday's high, revisit the 1 minute chart after 10:30 am and set a buy stop equal to two ticks above the high achieved in the first hour of trading. Modified Gap Up: Buy If a stock's opening price is greater than yesterday's high, revisit the 1 minute chart after 10:30 am and set a buy stop equal to the average of the open price and the high price achieved in the first hour of trading. This method recommends that the projected daily volume is double the 5 day average. Gap Up: Short If a stock's opening price is greater than yesterday's high, revisit the 1 minute chart after 10:30 am and set a short stop equal to two ticks below the low achieved in the first hour of trading. Gap Down: Short If a stock's opening price is less than yesterday's low, revisit the 1 minute chart after 10:30 am and set a short stop equal to two ticks below the low achieved in the first hour of trading. Definitions Tick A 'tick' is defined as the bid/ask spread, usually 1/8 to 1/4 point, depending on the stock. Buy Stop A buy stop is a buy order which becomes effective once the price of a stock crosses above a certain price limit. This is the opposite of a stop loss order. Short Sell Stop A short sell stop is a short sell order which becomes effective once the price of a stock crosses below a certain price limit. One can assess the profitability of this method against any recent gapping stocks - see the 5 minutes intraday charts in Mach6. Note: These gap strategies are contributed by Scott McCormick, and used with his permission. The formula for the gap lists in Mach6 were developed in conjunction with him. Scott hosts a position trading forum on Sillicon Investor called Last Shadow's Position Trading. - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Peter Newell" Subject: [CANSLIM] New Marder Column Date: 30 Apr 1999 08:52:39 -0700 Theres a new Kevin Marder column at http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/current/marder.htx?source=htx/http2_mw Peter Newell - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Peter Newell" Subject: [CANSLIM] Check out DMMC Date: 30 Apr 1999 09:10:43 -0700 Is DMMC breaking out? EPS 95 RS 92 GS 87 Acc A Float 8.7 Not an all time high just 52-week. Peter Newell - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Craig A. Griffin" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] New Marder Column Date: 30 Apr 1999 10:12:54 -0400 Peter, Thanks for the alert! Well worth reading (as is always the case with Marder). Best Regards, Craig At 08:52 AM 4/30/99 -0700, you wrote: >Theres a new Kevin Marder column at >http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/current/marder.htx?source=htx/http2_mw > >Peter Newell > > >- > > - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Jeff Salisbury" Subject: [CANSLIM] Newsflash! Government to issue 3 new bonds... Date: 30 Apr 1999 10:42:14 -0600 I couldn't resist passing this on... ========================= IMPORTANT NEW ANNOUNCEMENT! The US Treasury has just announced that it will sell three new types of bonds: 1. The Al Gore bond, which has no interest. 2. The Monica Lewinsky bond, which has no maturity And... 3. The Bill Clinton Bond, which has no principal. - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Walter Stock Subject: [CANSLIM] Marder on Cyclicals Date: 30 Apr 1999 14:31:17 -0400 New Marder column yesterday. He addresses the main question that has been bothering me for the past two weeks... are the cyclicals for real ? I have never bought one of these stocks in my life. In terms of broad sectors I follow technology, communications, financials, and retail. The cyclicals look like stocks your grand-parents would have bought, way back when. Lots of tree and rock companies. Also oils. Marder mentions the likes of Alcoa, Baker Hughes, Boise Cascade, International Paper, Kimberly-Clark, Reynolds and others as cyclical leadership that has broken out, pulled back, and is now beginning to move up again. Looks like I am going to have to bring myself to investigate this stuff. Even if only for the short-term. http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/current/marder.htx?source=htx/http2_mw Happy trading, Walter Stock Oakville, Ont - Canada - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: FBNAirPlt@aol.com Subject: [CANSLIM] Acc/Dis Numbers Date: 30 Apr 1999 23:19:10 EDT Here are the latest Acc/Dis numbers: Date A B C D E AB/A:E %E 4/1/99 900 2387 1323 1284 635 50% 10% 4/5/99 876 2351 1298 1309 670 50% 10% 4/6/99 878 2337 1358 1277 654 49% 10% 4/7/99 904 2324 1359 1255 648 50% 10% 4/8/99 911 2264 1335 1315 647 49% 10% 4/9/99 903 2273 1287 1341 668 49% 10% 4/12/99 953 2243 1282 1336 660 49% 10% 4/13/99 982 2278 1310 1280 638 50% 10% 4/14/99 1023 2311 1310 1242 613 51% 9% 4/15/99 1074 2358 1261 1215 605 53% 9% 4/16/99 1124 2466 1240 1148 546 55% 8% 4/19/99 1153 2565 1221 1086 520 57% 8% 4/20/99 1274 2601 1184 1051 473 59% 7% 4/21/99 1240 2656 1164 1059 453 59% 7% 4/22/99 1206 2719 1157 1055 440 60% 7% 4/23/99 1286 2730 1168 988 419 61% 6% 4/26/99 1314 2736 1188 950 399 61% 6% 4/27/99 1349 2761 1190 929 376 62% 6% 4/28/99 1406 2776 1167 903 374 63% 6% 4/29/99 1420 2839 1135 864 368 64% 6% 4/30/99 1469 2820 1153 862 354 64% 5% Spreedsheet version: Date,A,B,C,D,E,AB/A:E,%E 4/1/99,900,2387,1323,1284,635,50%,10% 4/5/99,876,2351,1298,1309,670,50%,10% 4/6/99,878,2337,1358,1277,654,49%,10% 4/7/99,904,2324,1359,1255,648,50%,10% 4/8/99,911,2264,1335,1315,647,49%,10% 4/9/99,903,2273,1287,1341,668,49%,10% 4/12/99,953,2243,1282,1336,660,49%,10% 4/13/99,982,2278,1310,1280,638,50%,10% 4/14/99,1023,2311,1310,1242,613,51%,9% 4/15/99,1074,2358,1261,1215,605,53%,9% 4/16/99,1124,2466,1240,1148,546,55%,8% 4/19/99,1153,2565,1221,1086,520,57%,8% 4/20/99,1274,2601,1184,1051,473,59%,7%,, 4/21/99,1240,2656,1164,1059,453,59%,7%,, 4/22/99,1206,2719,1157,1055,440,60%,7%,, 4/23/99,1286,2730,1168,988,419,61%,6%,, 4/26/99,1314,2736,1188,950,399,61%,6%,, 4/27/99,1349,2761,1190,929,376,62%,6%,, 4/28/99,1406,2776,1167,903,374,63%,6%,, 4/29/99,1420,2839,1135,864,368,64%,6%,, 4/30/99,1469,2820,1153,862,354,64%,5%,, Robert -