From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com (Jeff Salisbury) Subject: [CANSLIM] Changing your canslim subscription Date: 01 May 1999 08:00:02 -0600 This is a monthly posting to the CANLSLIM group. Frequently, people sign up for the canslim list and then are overwhelmed by the volume of the email. There are two remedies for this problem: 1) You can leave our group, or 2) you can switch to the digest version which "conglomerates" many canslim messages into one large message. To change your configuration, email a message to: majordomo@xmission.com The remove yourself from the canslim list, write in the body of the email: unsubscribe canslim To add yourself to the digest version of the canslim list, write in the body of the email: subscribe canslim-digest For general help with majordomo commands, write in the body of the email: help If you need further clarification, write me directly at: canslim-owner@lists.xmission.com Best Regards, Jeff Salisbury - CANSLIM list admin / owner - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: [CANSLIM] DGO New Highs, and other stuff Date: 01 May 1999 10:54:46 -0400 Hi gang, It's been another long and exhausting workweek, as well as an interesting stock mkt week, and I'm only now beginning to assess what went on. So far, it looks like we had a fast rotation into, then out of, cyclicals. I am not convinced this is over, esp once the earnings fever abates. This was offset by a combination of profit taking and rotation out of techs, principally centered on the internet stocks. By the end of the week, it seems internet stocks were starting to be seen as undervalued, at least the better established cos. I am intrigued by a report I read that found strong correlation between the cyclicals performance and small caps. Don't know why there should be linkage, and haven't found a good index to measure pure cyclical performance, so open to suggestions. In any case, the small caps showed some strength and closed favorably. Results for the week: NASDAQ -1.8% Dow 30 +0.9% Russell 2000 +0.2% S&P100 -1.7% S&P500 -1.5% VIX +8.8% (again, not a good sign at 26.07) The US economy remains strong, Q1 GDP came in well over expectations fueled by consumer spending. Most major currencies remain in a trading range, with the US dollar viewed as strong due to the economy, the Euro weak due to European economic growth rates and damage economically from the war in Kosovo, and the yen stronger due to expectations that the worst is over and the govt there may inject further economic stimulus despite denials to the contrary. Despite the continued robust US economy, employment remains strong and inflationary signals weak. There is a growing concern, most recently sparked by the GDP report, that the Feds may raise rates, which led to a sharp selloff in the bond mkt on Friday. A rate hike would lead to a stronger dollar and bond mkt eventually as cash seeks the higher and safer returns there, but I remain convinced that a rate hike this year won't happen as other economies and currencies are so fragile and weak. And, without conclusive and perceivable evidence of inflation, I don't believe Mr. G (nor the rest of the Fed board) is willing to take the political heat. No "preemptive strike" this time. While the GDP report was over 1% above expectations, it still slowed about 2% from Q4. Despite the "experts", I don't expect much of a further drop, more likely IMHO is that it will remain stable at around 4-4.5%. It appears to me that the rapid rotation into, then out of, cyclicals may still have expanded the breadth somewhat. Remains to be seen if it will continue. I am encouraged mostly by the nr of days where advance/declining stocks is positive regardless of what the major indexes did. New lows numbers have also dropped sizably on both NYSE and NASDAQ. Despite the new records being reached, tho, new highs has yet to expand. During this week, the Dow Transportation Index clearly established a "new 12 month high" trend, confirming the new high traded of the prior week, and did so along with numerous Dow Industrial Index new highs. This confirms a bull mkt according to Dow Theory as I understand it. FWIW, I now believe we are in a new Bull mkt, having been born last Fall after an extremely short bear mkt. I do not believe this a continuation of our "aging bull", that ended around July 22 or so. This will be my last posting of the "DGO New Highs" list as I adjust to the new list of stocks approaching or at new highs (already screened for basic CANSLIM quality) provided there. I cannot promise to post a weekly list of what I cull from the new list, but on those occasions that I do go thru the entire list, I will try to post the findings. I still do not find the investing environment for CANSLIMers all that favorable. VIX remains somewhat too high for consistent returns, and even the results from my "DGO New Highs" list suggest caution. The total nr of stocks in the DG books to hit new highs last week expanded to 318 from 293, however the number meeting the basic RS/EPS test of 80/80 dropped from 103 to 100. A total of 30 of these 100 made a new high on Friday, however the other 70 were scattered throughout the week. There are still some big names on the list, but leadership is not clearly evident to me. However, the new list from DGO grew slightly from 186 to 188. Haven't begun examining it yet, so no conclusions or observations as of yet. Here are the survivors: POWI, CMVT, RSC, PLCE, DY, GPTX, TCAT, DOX, TLAB, QCOM, TQNT, MXIM, SDLI, MTW, WCOM, EFII, UVN, NDN, PBI, EBAY, IBM, TRB, SBUX, TYC, MVSN, LXK, AUD, AFL, GD, LLL, JNJ, WAT, STT, MAR, KCP, ADIC, MRIS, ETM, KRON, BGF, DHR, FLFC, ZLC, ADBE, TIF, KARE, EXAC, TRK, RMPO, OK, DIIG, AVI, ER, TAN, PCAR, SRT, OCLI, USFC, SEC, BK, POSIF, SYK, NAV, AIT, CGP, FCWI, KMB, IR, WFC, MYG, SSD, GNTX, SNS, PNR, FWRD, EL, MFAC, ALD, BCOM, HAS, DYN, SIGYY, VCI, FISV, NITE (still perfect nrs), AVY, ITP, FTEN, RICA, XTRM, TOT, PX, EVR, MRD, CHRW, TECUA, COF, KWP, CPN, UTX. Happy hunting, Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Patrick Wahl" Subject: [CANSLIM] C & H Definition Date: 01 May 1999 13:34:54 -0800 I post this every now and then, here it is again for people new to the list. These are excerpts from an article in Technical Analysis of Stocks and Commodities magazine - The cup of the pattern typically forms during intermediate-term market corrections and is usually 3 to 6 months in duration, but can be as long as 12 months during bear markets or as short as seven weeks during bull markets. The left side of the cup is a downtrend correcting the previous uptrend. The stock price bottoms and begins to advance, forming the right side of the cup. "During the formation of the cup's right side, the stock becomes subject to profit-taking at its old highs - the beginning of the cup formation - from sellers who bought at the cups bottom. In addition, investors who bought the stock near its old highs on the left side of the cup are anxious to sell." "The handle of the cup is usually more than one or two weeks long and should drift down on very low volume and form in the upper half of the pattern, preferably the upper third. A handle that drifts lower is important because it indicates that enough disbelievers are still active at that point. "... At this point, the volume should be light, indicating a lack of sellers. During the formation of the handle, new buyers step in and smart money adds to their positions, supporting the stock. When the stock breaks out from its handle, volume must surge by 40% above its avg. daily volume to confirm that demand is present at the stock's earliest emerging point." "Handles may also form slightly in new high ground [sic] when the right side of the cup drives somewhat higher than the cup's left side. ... Whatever the variation, the breakouts above the handle's high - the high on the right side of the cup - is what the investor wants to buy, which may or may not be a new high for the stock." " Many C&H patterns are 12-20% in depth, and can be as deep as 35-40% following market corrrections. Unless a bear market is present, depths of more than 45% are too excessive, making it difficult for a stock to successfully break out once the pattern is complete." - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Frank V. Wolynski" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] DGO New Highs, and other stuff Date: 01 May 1999 16:54:08 -0400 At 10:54 AM 5/1/99 -0400, you wrote: >Hi gang, ...snipped... >It appears to me that the rapid rotation into, then out of, >cyclicals may still have expanded the breadth somewhat. >Remains to be seen if it will continue. I am encouraged >mostly by the nr of days where advance/declining stocks is >positive regardless of what the major indexes did. New lows >numbers have also dropped sizably on both NYSE and NASDAQ. >Despite the new records being reached, tho, new highs has >yet to expand. > >Tom Worley >stkguru@netside.net Hello Tom, The Energy, Industrial and Basic Material groups look very strong. Metal Fabricators, Elect. Instruments, drillers, service and other industrials. It is hard to imagine the groups providing continued leadership here, but that is the kind of stuff these groups will need to propell them further. Doubters. Most of the lows were being generated by the groups mentioned above until just a few weeks back when they firmed up and launched. Now the prior leaders are failing to make new highs, one by one. The prior markets rockets are taking a breather. Drugs, Retailers, Technologies, Biotechs. All have broken down and appear at best ready for some basing, if not outright deterioration. It was amazing to watch SGP, ABS, WMT, WAG, MRK, MCK, JNJ and many other big names hit their near term lows ( 21 day new lows ) and fall further. All the while the cyclicals were basing nicely or advancing strongly. As we are caught in that zone between the cyclicals coming off their bottoms and the leaders coming off their tops, we have a scarcity of both new highs and new lows. It will most likely continue that way for a bit more. Shopping the new high list at this juncture seems dangerous to me, IMHO. So the question in my mind becomes, do I buy the dips of the prior leadership, or the advancing cyclicals. This is where the chart reading rubber meets the road, and Connie's swing trading strategies seem more viable in such a climate. Best Regards, Frank Wolynski - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Connie Mack Rea Subject: [CANSLIM] Technical stuff: A couple of pretty good looking trades. [Connie Mack] Date: 01 May 1999 19:01:05 -0400 ULTE looks like it might be good for a point or so trade. The MACD, SAR, and the 3/7/10 gave a buy two days ago. The 50 and 100 EMA are within a point plus. There is some five month resistance at about the 100 EMA. First quarter revenues are up substantially, and a couple of business transactions were signed in the last few days. PROG has bounced from its 200 EMA, gone through the 100, and now sits its 50. There is a slight positive divergence on the MACD for the last five days. Several of my Stochastics are on or right at buy. The 3/7/10 EMA is piled up. I'm anticipating that it will turn buy in a couple of days. Connie Mack - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Johan Van Houtven Subject: [CANSLIM] Index for the cyclicals Date: 01 May 1999 20:33:28 +0200 >I am intrigued by a report I read that found strong >correlation between the cyclicals performance and small >caps. Don't know why there should be linkage, and haven't >found a good index to measure pure cyclical performance, so >open to suggestions. Tom, Take a look at the XLY (a sector spider). Not pure cyclical, but better than nothing. It is the only cyclical index I currently know of and look at daily. Does anyone know of any other indexes for the cyclicals? Johan - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Index for the cyclicals Date: 01 May 1999 07:17:24 -0400 Hi Johan, I did find one, the Morgan Stanley Cyclical Index. At big charts the symbol is CYC. And there does appear to be strong correlation between it and R2000 (RUT at BC), while XLY does not appear similar. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html -----Original Message----- >I am intrigued by a report I read that found strong >correlation between the cyclicals performance and small >caps. Don't know why there should be linkage, and haven't >found a good index to measure pure cyclical performance, so >open to suggestions. Tom, Take a look at the XLY (a sector spider). Not pure cyclical, but better than nothing. It is the only cyclical index I currently know of and look at daily. Does anyone know of any other indexes for the cyclicals? Johan - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Ssingh@aol.com Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] C & H Definition Date: 02 May 1999 08:36:31 EDT Now I understand... Have a wonderful week Surindra In a message dated 5/1/99 3:34:34 PM Eastern Daylight Time, pwahl@postoffice.worldnet.att.net writes: I post this every now and then, here it is again for people new to the list. These are excerpts from an article in Technical Analysis of Stocks and Commodities magazine - -------- The cup of the pattern typically forms during intermediate-term market corrections and is usually 3 to 6 months in duration, but can be as long as 12 months during bear markets or as short as seven weeks during bull markets. The left side of the cup is a downtrend correcting the previous uptrend. The stock price bottoms and begins to advance, forming the right side of the cup. "During the formation of the cup's right side, the stock becomes subject to profit-taking at its old highs - the beginning of the cup formation - from sellers who bought at the cups bottom. In addition, investors who bought the stock near its old highs on the left side of the cup are anxious to sell." "The handle of the cup is usually more than one or two weeks long and should drift down on very low volume and form in the upper half of the pattern, preferably the upper third. A handle that drifts lower is important because it indicates that enough disbelievers are still active at that point. "... At this point, the volume should be light, indicating a lack of sellers. During the formation of the handle, new buyers step in and smart money adds to their positions, supporting the stock. When the stock breaks out from its handle, volume must surge by 40% above its avg. daily volume to confirm that demand is present at the stock's earliest emerging point." "Handles may also form slightly in new high ground [sic] when the right side of the cup drives somewhat higher than the cup's left side. ... Whatever the variation, the breakouts above the handle's high - the high on the right side of the cup - is what the investor wants to buy, which may or may not be a new high for the stock." " Many C&H patterns are 12-20% in depth, and can be as deep as 35-40% following market corrrections. Unless a bear market is present, depths of more than 45% are too excessive, making it difficult for a stock to successfully break out once the pattern is complete." >> - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: DS Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Index for the cyclicals Date: 02 May 1999 08:36:21 -0500 > Does anyone know of any other indexes for the cyclicals? > > Johan Johan, You could look at some of the Fidelity Sector Funds that are cyclical: Autos Paper Chemicals Energy Energy Services Industrial Equipment Industrial Materials Also, you could keep track of the "cyclical" economies that are raw materials based such as Canada and Australia. These can be found on the Decision Point site under WEBS. http://www.decisionpoint.com/DailyCharts/DailyMenu.html Good Trading, Dave - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Connie Mack Rea Subject: [CANSLIM] Technical stuff: HLX and NOPT [Connie Mack] Date: 02 May 1999 09:54:36 -0400 A couple of other stocks that are just slightly above the lowest entry level are HLX and NOPT. I've traded these twice this month and like the looks of them. Come a decent Monday, I will try to take positions in both--and also in ULTE and PROG. DELL has very modest short term prospects, but it is still a tradeable stock because of its volitility. Connie Mack - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com (Jeff Salisbury) Subject: [CANSLIM] Sending large files to the canslim group Date: 02 May 1999 08:00:02 -0600 Everyone, There are times when you may wish to share large files with our group (i.e. gif, jpeg, spreadsheets, etc). Our list is configured to reject large postings (even if they are properly encoded) since the sheer volume has caused problems in the past. As an alternative, we have provided an anonymous ftp site. To provide your file to the group, please follow these instructions: 1. Send your file to: ftp://ftp.xmission.com/pub/users/m/mcjathan/incoming/ If you need some help doing this step, there are ftp instructions below. 2. Send mail to me directly at "owner-canslim@xmission.com" telling me the name of the file that you uploaded. I will move the file from the incoming directory, to the canslim directory where people will be able to download your file. 3. After I notify you that the file has been moved to the canslim directory, you should send an email to the canslim group describing your file, and its URL (i.e. ftp://ftp.xmission.com/pub/users/m/mcjathan/GreatBoom.gif). Although this may seem unwieldy at first, it really isn't too bad and it solves more problems than it creates. You should note that I do not monitor my email on the weekends as closely as during the week. Therefore, steps 2-3 may take longer over a weekend. Best Regards, Jeff Salisbury =========================================================================== FTP Instructions: 1. Using Netscape, go to the URL: ftp://ftp.xmission.com/pub/users/m/mcjathan/incoming/ 2. On the Netscape "File" menu, select "Upload File..." This will open a file selection widget on your hard-drive. Select the file you wish to upload and hit the "Ok" button. At this point, your file will be uploaded. 3. Eventhough your file has been uploaded, you will not be able to see the file in your netscape browser. The reason for this is that the "incoming" directory is set to write-only for security reasons. - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Technical stuff: HLX and NOPT [Connie Mack] Date: 02 May 1999 10:08:41 -0400 Interesting difference of viewpoint, Connie. I got your email only minutes after looking at, and rejecting, the chart of ULTE at DGO. I looked at it because of its new highs on Thursday and Friday (just now catching up a week of new highs lists). I rejected it for my watch list despite some decent CANSLIM qualities because the last two days took it 40% over its base. Obviously you see more juice in it from a trading standpoint, and I fear a major retreat back into a base. Yet it does have qualities we both like. Interesting. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html -----Original Message----- Mack] A couple of other stocks that are just slightly above the lowest entry level are HLX and NOPT. I've traded these twice this month and like the looks of them. Come a decent Monday, I will try to take positions in both--and also in ULTE and PROG. DELL has very modest short term prospects, but it is still a tradeable stock because of its volitility. Connie Mack - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Frank V. Wolynski" Subject: [CANSLIM] Market, TYX, Gold and Such Date: 02 May 1999 10:25:42 -0400 Some of my intermediate term indicators pegged last week. After having pegged the prior week. This is, at the least, typically followed by a sideways move in the indexes, and outright declines in many industry groups. It has led to far worse. A great many of the cyclicals are at historical highs, the weekly indicators on the some of the cyclical groups have turned down and they are pumping them on CNBC. The weekly 30 year TYX yield chart looks like a perfect C&H. If I were a forcaster, I could easily see 6% in the TYX, a good move from where it stands at 5.6%. That is also the next resistance area. Gold stocks have moved off their bottoms on volume. Very solid looking technical charts in the group. Rising RS, OBV, volume. Trading above the 17, 50 and 200sma's with inclining volume ma's. The prior generals were all trounced firmly in the past 2-3 weeks. ( MRK, WMT, COST, Drugs, Pharms, Foods, Software, yadda, yadda). The S&P100 Puts/Calls daily ratio pegged on 4/23/98 at a historical high of 2.43, while the CBOE remains solidly optimistic with a .37. The S&P is where I've read the Institutional players tinker. The CBOE is where the individual trades options. So the Institutions are betting for a decline, while the individuals are saying up, up and away. The weekly S&P100 Puts/Calls is pegging above 180 two weeks in a row. My data for the weekly goes back to Nov of 1998 and the two other peaks in the data are in Mar of 98 at 155 and Nov of 98 at 150. The Investment Advisors remain solidly bullish at over 55%, but down from their peak in February of 60%. The resolution of all this will be interesting. Please forgive the slip into the land of 'Pointy Hats and Magic Wands' regarding the TYX yield. Other than that the other numbers are true. It's "just the facts maam". I'm not trying to scare the wits out of anyone, just be careful and above all, do not chase stocks. I have turned from investor to trader at this juncture and will be looking for short term opportunities only. Frank Wolynski (Often wrong, plan accordingly.) - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Jose O. Perez" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Index for the cyclicals Date: 02 May 1999 09:37:41 -0700 A search in quotes plus gives the following indexes : !CYC = Amex Morgan & Stanley Cyclical !SP-CC = Standard & Poors Cyclicals !DJUCC = Dow jones Cyclicals !A1CYC = American Cons Cyclicals Dow Jones jose' DS wrote: > > Does anyone know of any other indexes for the cyclicals? > > > > Johan > > Johan, > > You could look at some of the Fidelity Sector Funds that are cyclical: > > Autos > Paper > Chemicals > Energy > Energy Services > Industrial Equipment > Industrial Materials > > Also, you could keep track of the "cyclical" economies that are raw > materials based such as > Canada and Australia. These can be found on the Decision Point site > under WEBS. > http://www.decisionpoint.com/DailyCharts/DailyMenu.html > > Good Trading, > Dave > > - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Johan Van Houtven Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Index for the cyclicals Date: 02 May 1999 20:32:45 +0200 At 07:17 AM 5/1/99 -0400, you wrote: >Hi Johan, > >I did find one, the Morgan Stanley Cyclical Index. At big >charts the symbol is CYC. And there does appear to be strong >correlation between it and R2000 (RUT at BC), while XLY does >not appear similar. Thx Tom. Note for QPv2 users: The symbol is !CYC. Johan - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Johan Van Houtven Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Index for the cyclicals Date: 02 May 1999 20:52:22 +0200 At 09:37 AM 5/2/99 -0700, you wrote: >A search in quotes plus gives the following indexes : > >!CYC = Amex Morgan & Stanley Cyclical >!SP-CC = Standard & Poors Cyclicals >!DJUCC = Dow jones Cyclicals >!A1CYC = American Cons Cyclicals Dow Jones > >jose' Jose, Thank you! How did you perform that search?? I know how to use the 'Search for stock symbol' and 'Search for name' features, but have no idea how you found all those indexes. Did you maybe use Window's own search feature in the QP directory? Johan - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "John Adair" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Index for the cyclicals Date: 02 May 1999 17:10:15 -0500 John Have you looked at the fidelity sectof funds cyclics show up here and there is a list of the stocks contained in the funds. John ----- Original Message ----- Sent: Saturday, May 01, 1999 1:33 PM > >I am intrigued by a report I read that found strong > >correlation between the cyclicals performance and small > >caps. Don't know why there should be linkage, and haven't > >found a good index to measure pure cyclical performance, so > >open to suggestions. > > Tom, > > Take a look at the XLY (a sector spider). Not pure cyclical, but better > than nothing. > It is the only cyclical index I currently know of and look at daily. > > Does anyone know of any other indexes for the cyclicals? > > > > Johan > > > > > > > - > > - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Ronald J. Russell, Jr." Subject: [CANSLIM] It's Late Date: 02 May 1999 23:26:52 -0400 All, It's late and I am fading fast. I'll post the list tomorrow night. Ron - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Ssingh@aol.com Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] C & H Definition Date: 02 May 1999 23:43:21 EDT Is VRLN a good cup and handle Patrick? Surindra << In a message dated 5/1/99 3:34:34 PM Eastern Daylight Time, pwahl@postoffice.worldnet.att.net writes: I post this every now and then, here it is again for people new to the list. These are excerpts from an article in Technical Analysis of Stocks and Commodities magazine - -------- The cup of the pattern typically forms during intermediate-term market corrections and is usually 3 to 6 months in duration, but can be as long as 12 months during bear markets or as short as seven weeks during bull markets. The left side of the cup is a downtrend correcting the previous uptrend. The stock price bottoms and begins to advance, forming the right side of the cup. "During the formation of the cup's right side, the stock becomes subject to profit-taking at its old highs - the beginning of the cup formation - from sellers who bought at the cups bottom. In addition, investors who bought the stock near its old highs on the left side of the cup are anxious to sell." "The handle of the cup is usually more than one or two weeks long and should drift down on very low volume and form in the upper half of the pattern, preferably the upper third. A handle that drifts lower is important because it indicates that enough disbelievers are still active at that point. "... At this point, the volume should be light, indicating a lack of sellers. During the formation of the handle, new buyers step in and smart money adds to their positions, supporting the stock. When the stock breaks out from its handle, volume must surge by 40% above its avg. daily volume to confirm that demand is present at the stock's earliest emerging point." "Handles may also form slightly in new high ground [sic] when the right side of the cup drives somewhat higher than the cup's left side. ... Whatever the variation, the breakouts above the handle's high - the high on the right side of the cup - is what the investor wants to buy, which may or may not be a new high for the stock." " Many C&H patterns are 12-20% in depth, and can be as deep as 35-40% following market corrrections. Unless a bear market is present, depths of more than 45% are too excessive, making it difficult for a stock to successfully break out once the pattern is complete." >> - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com (Jeff Salisbury) Subject: [CANSLIM] Accessing the discussion canslim archives... Date: 03 May 1999 08:00:02 -0600 From time to time, CANSLIM members may wish to browse the discussion archives. This posting provides instructions on how to access the archives. Thanks to David Cameron for compiling the essentials of this message. Here are the two ways to access the archives: 1. The best way is to use your web browser. To browse the archives, point your browser to: http://www.xmission.com/~mcjathan/cgi/lwgate.cgi/CANSLIM/ You can do simple key-word searches on the archive by going to: http://www.xmission.com/~mcjathan/canslim/search.html 2. (Not as convenient) via email: Send an email to majordomo@xmission.com with the following as the body of your message: "index canslim". Then send a follow up email to request an old email from either the "archive" or "latest" directory. Note that your request must be in the body of your email. For example: "get canslim latest/001" will retrieve file "001" from the "latest" directory. "get canslim archive/v01.n066" will retrieve file "v01.n066" from the "archive" dir. Best Regards, Jeff Salisbury - CANSLIM list owner/admin - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Robert Raible Subject: [CANSLIM] BA - forming a handle? Date: 01 May 1999 09:27:45 -0700 (PDT) Hello my name is Bob Raible and I have been more or less lurking in this mailing list for a while now. I have not done any canslim based trading yet, and I was wondering if someone could provide me with a reality check. I am intrigued by the classic cup shape formed by Boeing the last few months(Dec'98 thru mid April). If the volume dries up would this be considered a CWH ? TIA. _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Robert Raible Subject: [CANSLIM] BA - forming a handle? Date: 01 May 1999 09:27:45 -0700 (PDT) Hello my name is Bob Raible and I have been more or less lurking in this mailing list for a while now. I have not done any canslim based trading yet, and I was wondering if someone could provide me with a reality check. I am intrigued by the classic cup shape formed by Boeing the last few months(Dec'98 thru mid April). If the volume dries up would this be considered a CWH ? TIA. _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Peter Newell" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] BA - forming a handle? Date: 03 May 1999 12:02:02 -0700 Bob, No, one of the keys to a cup&handle is a 30% rise preferably to a new high then a cup&handle. Peter -----Original Message----- >Hello my name is Bob Raible and I have been more or less lurking in >this mailing list for a while now. I have not done any canslim based >trading yet, and I was wondering if someone could provide me with a >reality check. I am intrigued by the classic cup shape formed by >Boeing the last few months(Dec'98 thru mid April). If the volume dries >up would this be considered a CWH ? TIA. > > > > > >_________________________________________________________ >DO YOU YAHOO!? >Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com > > > > >- > > - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Connie Mack Rea Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Technical stuff: HLX and NOPT [Connie Mack] Date: 03 May 1999 14:05:44 -0400 Hi Tom-- Hey, just two sharp minds trying to blunt bad decisions and whittle out a few bucks. You can have some fun with ULTI. Nice little chart. Some of my faculty group are playing with a chart of gave them last Tuesday: COPY. They bought 5000 yesterday. Those crazy b------- are playing the market when they should be grading finals. They rode my ass until I bought some this morning. Jesus, I made $250 and didn't even try. Take a look at my list of oils/drillers. They're all up but one today. There's some nice change to be made here. Is this a great country or what? Connie Tom Worley wrote: > Interesting difference of viewpoint, Connie. > > I got your email only minutes after looking at, and > rejecting, the chart of ULTE at DGO. I looked at it because > of its new highs on Thursday and Friday (just now catching > up a week of new highs lists). I rejected it for my watch > list despite some decent CANSLIM qualities because the last > two days took it 40% over its base. > > Obviously you see more juice in it from a trading > standpoint, and I fear a major retreat back into a base. Yet > it does have qualities we both like. Interesting. > > Tom Worley > stkguru@netside.net > chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 > get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html > > -----Original Message----- > From: Connie Mack Rea > To: canslim > Date: Sunday, May 02, 1999 9:55 AM > Subject: [CANSLIM] Technical stuff: HLX and NOPT [Connie > Mack] > > A couple of other stocks that are just slightly above the > lowest entry > level are HLX and NOPT. > > I've traded these twice this month and like the looks of > them. Come a > decent Monday, I will try to take positions in both--and > also in ULTE > and PROG. > > DELL has very modest short term prospects, but it is still a > tradeable > stock because of its volitility. > > Connie Mack > > - > > - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Patrick Wahl" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] C & H Definition Date: 03 May 1999 20:37:21 -0800 Date sent: Sun, 2 May 1999 23:43:21 EDT Send reply to: canslim@lists.xmission.com > Is VRLN a good cup and handle Patrick? I would say not. I presume you mean the period from Jan. to now, with a breakout from the handle a few days ago. That stretch taken by itself is pretty much the C&H pattern you want to look for, but that should also form after a previous price gain, and that hasn't occurred in VRLN. The old high was in July, and it has just chopped around since then. Take a look at GSPT for an example of a C&H. Unfortunately, I only stumbled on it today, too extended to buy, but still a good example of what you want to see. - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Ronald J. Russell, Jr." Subject: [CANSLIM] Weekly Stock List - Condensed Version Date: 03 May 1999 22:22:40 -0400 All, We came in at 162 this week, down from 179 last week. As a reminder, the selection criteria are: EPS > 69 RS > 84 GRS > 59 A/D = "A" or "B" CLOSE > 10.00 30 Day ADV > 75,000 Trade well, Ron Symbol EPS RS GRS ERG A/D Close 30 ADV ABDR 97 92 80 269 A $ 74.000 156,820 ADBE 92 92 74 258 A $ 63.380 1,007,553 ADCT 96 92 95 283 A $ 47.810 2,023,250 ADIC 81 91 66 238 B $ 21.630 80,510 ADRX 77 95 84 256 B $ 78.750 139,260 ADVS 97 92 91 280 A $ 61.630 93,460 AEOS 99 91 91 281 A $ 74.750 345,170 AGN 82 92 68 242 B $ 89.880 417,613 AGPH 73 91 83 247 A $ 59.060 482,173 AHAA 74 98 94 266 A $ 35.250 312,170 AIT 86 86 79 251 A $ 68.440 1,840,750 ALNT 82 89 79 250 A $ 44.250 184,990 ALTR 90 93 94 277 A $ 72.250 2,256,247 AMGN 94 91 83 268 A $ 61.440 5,464,286 ANF 99 95 91 285 A $ 94.810 531,547 AOL 77 99 99 275 A $ 142.750 28,189,888 ARMHY 80 97 94 271 A $ 32.500 90,047 ASND 96 95 93 284 A $ 96.630 4,089,590 ASTE 80 96 72 248 A $ 38.750 147,687 AT 81 88 79 248 A $ 67.440 768,023 ATI 91 90 92 273 A $ 93.470 2,753,680 AXP 89 86 89 264 B $ 130.690 1,714,400 BBBY 97 88 71 256 A $ 35.690 1,594,440 BBY 74 95 94 263 B $ 47.630 1,665,197 BEAM 77 99 97 273 A $ 17.440 2,436,204 BGF 97 87 93 277 B $ 35.500 381,840 BGG 73 91 64 228 B $ 65.940 172,540 BID 76 93 71 240 A $ 42.630 350,187 BJ 87 88 84 259 B $ 26.560 307,750 BRCM 80 96 94 270 A $ 77.130 1,733,613 BSX 92 92 68 252 A $ 42.560 2,132,683 BVSN 77 98 74 249 B $ 58.060 1,015,197 BXM 98 89 83 270 A $ 32.940 408,517 C 75 88 82 245 B $ 74.880 8,824,646 CDWC 98 91 67 256 A $ 89.500 179,667 CHCS 86 92 91 269 A $ 25.060 99,923 CHL 78 88 92 258 A $ 45.750 95,483 CLE 89 94 92 275 A $ 33.130 499,600 CLEC 77 90 96 263 A $ 23.130 140,020 CLFY 97 90 74 261 B $ 23.500 419,153 CMGI 77 99 98 274 A $ 254.560 4,052,364 CMNT 73 99 93 265 B $ 18.690 620,537 COF 87 93 89 269 A $ 173.690 526,413 COST 85 85 84 254 B $ 80.940 2,061,030 CPRT 94 91 80 265 B $ 18.130 138,450 CPWM 89 94 69 252 B $ 35.250 268,153 CREE 99 95 94 288 A $ 42.000 210,483 CSCO 97 93 93 283 A $ 114.060 13,098,185 CSN 81 92 79 252 A $ 22.690 486,090 CTV 77 90 87 254 B $ 24.380 451,043 DG 93 87 84 264 A $ 35.060 726,670 DH 89 87 84 260 B $ 67.310 1,607,377 DMMC 95 93 88 276 A $ 23.750 172,600 DSP 93 95 94 282 A $ 27.250 642,353 EFII 96 96 74 266 A $ 47.310 951,550 EMC 97 94 66 257 A $ 108.940 5,392,534 EUSA 96 92 85 273 A $ 36.500 181,140 EXPD 91 91 73 255 B $ 60.630 129,907 FDC 79 87 89 255 B $ 42.440 1,640,877 FISV 89 85 61 235 A $ 58.560 631,107 FLEX 97 94 89 280 A $ 46.690 806,637 FM 97 86 71 254 A $ 24.130 180,287 FNDTF 82 96 91 269 A $ 34.440 259,867 FON 74 91 96 261 B $ 102.560 1,249,570 FORE 70 95 93 258 B $ 33.750 8,849,730 GEOC 84 97 74 255 A $ 56.250 763,773 GICOF 99 94 96 289 A $ 14.750 86,963 GNSS 84 93 94 271 A $ 20.750 448,503 GPS 96 91 91 278 A $ 66.560 1,656,710 GUC 93 91 91 275 A $ 75.440 715,280 HAS 85 91 79 255 B $ 34.880 1,011,053 HDI 94 90 76 260 A $ 59.880 490,227 HET 72 85 86 243 A $ 22.000 711,467 HQ 83 86 97 266 A $ 35.250 261,037 IBI 87 94 91 272 A $ 50.000 410,473 IBM 92 90 75 257 B $ 209.190 6,001,554 INSS 99 87 61 247 A $ 38.000 412,630 IR 92 91 64 247 B $ 69.190 732,670 JAKK 99 95 79 273 A $ 21.380 251,067 JBL 82 96 89 267 A $ 46.560 848,853 KSWS 77 99 90 266 A $ 42.000 349,297 KWP 81 85 65 231 A $ 35.250 893,143 LEVL 90 94 94 278 A $ 51.380 835,453 LIN 95 90 69 254 B $ 45.750 258,710 LLTC 79 91 94 264 A $ 56.880 1,552,310 LU 98 87 95 280 A $ 60.000 14,915,472 LXK 96 93 86 275 A $ 123.500 682,703 MAR 90 86 78 254 B $ 41.880 599,223 MARG 75 97 80 252 B $ 18.250 158,630 MCRL 95 92 94 281 A $ 58.880 202,557 MEDI 77 93 83 253 B $ 55.130 1,180,110 MFAC 97 86 80 263 A $ 30.500 133,363 MMCN 84 91 94 269 A $ 24.560 632,943 MNMD 98 96 68 262 A $ 62.500 220,347 MSFT 99 88 95 282 A $ 81.310 31,232,474 MTON 98 90 96 284 A $ 16.310 126,667 MXIM 80 88 94 262 A $ 56.000 1,613,420 MYG 91 86 78 255 A $ 68.380 566,273 NAV 94 96 81 271 B $ 52.310 706,133 NDB 80 99 97 276 B $ 57.000 2,086,617 NEON 80 92 74 246 A $ 37.560 1,768,860 NOK 97 92 95 284 A $ 74.190 3,007,206 NOVL 77 93 93 263 B $ 22.250 5,205,803 NPCI 76 91 71 238 B $ 18.000 160,307 NSOL 84 97 98 279 A $ 77.750 3,545,980 NTAP 99 95 66 260 A $ 50.310 1,050,430 OCLI 89 99 74 262 B $ 61.630 142,707 OMC 92 87 77 256 A $ 72.500 747,620 OSSI 91 92 71 254 A $ 35.810 719,237 OSTE 71 95 68 234 A $ 36.130 206,280 PCLE 71 92 62 225 A $ 54.380 228,187 PEGS 72 96 80 248 A $ 46.750 212,510 PKN 78 89 74 241 A $ 108.130 239,437 PKX 90 93 76 259 B $ 25.750 655,010 PLCE 99 98 91 288 A $ 36.250 359,827 PLCM 77 88 95 260 A $ 24.440 879,887 POS 94 92 77 263 A $ 85.440 144,367 POWI 80 98 89 267 A $ 39.250 284,383 PROG 92 87 88 267 B $ 12.500 114,157 PROX 98 97 89 284 B $ 38.500 323,827 PSUN 93 90 91 274 A $ 37.090 404,613 PVN 98 97 89 284 A $ 129.060 917,990 QCOM 96 99 95 290 B $ 200.000 4,355,186 QLGC 98 95 94 287 A $ 69.940 385,427 RFMD 82 99 87 268 A $ 55.880 709,050 SANM 91 87 89 267 A $ 66.250 1,221,323 SBUX 96 93 71 260 B $ 36.940 1,817,220 SCAI 70 97 91 258 B $ 58.500 414,143 SCH 97 99 97 293 A $ 109.750 4,259,354 SDLI 95 99 94 288 A $ 109.250 311,177 SEBL 99 87 74 260 A $ 38.440 1,822,190 SFP 99 95 78 272 A $ 34.000 79,193 SLR 96 93 87 276 A $ 48.500 1,282,457 SONC 91 86 71 248 A $ 28.130 101,540 SORC 72 94 80 246 A $ 12.250 106,897 SRT 98 94 80 272 A $ 20.060 136,780 SUNW 94 96 75 265 A $ 59.810 16,283,527 SWC 77 87 70 234 A $ 28.310 225,020 SWS 92 97 97 286 A $ 52.940 397,700 TACO 79 90 71 240 B $ 10.130 139,417 TAGS 98 96 69 263 A $ 47.130 92,947 TAN 82 90 67 239 A $ 72.750 871,993 TCAT 85 93 96 274 A $ 49.810 351,403 TEX 75 87 72 234 A $ 31.630 169,480 TIF 90 95 92 277 A $ 84.000 223,170 TJX 93 89 91 273 B $ 33.310 1,004,953 TLAB 99 92 95 286 A $ 109.410 2,679,643 TMPW 89 95 77 261 A $ 67.250 643,273 TRK 87 95 82 264 B $ 43.380 129,447 TVGIA 80 96 90 266 B $ 42.130 255,813 TXCC 77 96 94 267 A $ 44.000 288,353 UNPH 97 96 95 288 A $ 121.380 898,333 UVN 82 93 90 265 B $ 57.880 394,747 VISX 99 99 97 295 A $ 128.750 1,022,770 WAT 98 91 62 251 A $ 105.130 136,363 WCOM 86 90 96 272 B $ 82.190 13,600,005 WIZTF 94 90 74 258 A $ 18.380 82,177 WMT 87 89 84 260 B $ 46.000 8,938,966 WTSLA 92 89 91 272 A $ 40.750 137,073 XLNX 89 95 94 278 A $ 45.630 3,614,594 YHOO 77 98 99 274 A $ 174.690 8,333,004 ZQK 96 95 69 260 A $ 26.560 195,270 - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] BA - forming a handle? Date: 04 May 1999 00:21:07 -0400 Hi Robert, First, welcome to the group. Second, on BA, I have somewhat of a wacky viewpoint since my older brother just got hired there, so inclined to suspect too many retired military featherbedding for a second or third pension. In any case, a quick glance at the chart at DGO says to me: too shallow a "cup"; too short a "handle"; too light (barely average) volume on the breakout from the "handle"; too weak (73) an RS. I also don't like the forecast for 2000 earnings (down 11% from 1999, tho wonder what Kosovo may do to that forecast). I wouldn't have a lot of confidence in the price continuing to rise. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html -----Original Message----- Hello my name is Bob Raible and I have been more or less lurking in this mailing list for a while now. I have not done any canslim based trading yet, and I was wondering if someone could provide me with a reality check. I am intrigued by the classic cup shape formed by Boeing the last few months(Dec'98 thru mid April). If the volume dries up would this be considered a CWH ? TIA. _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Peter Newell" Subject: [CANSLIM] QLGC attempted breakout Date: 04 May 1999 14:58:43 -0700 QLGC is trying to breakout. EPS 98 RS 96 GS 94 Float 16.9m Timeliness A A/D B Volume needs to be 660,000 for 50% increase Peter Newell - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Chris Hudson Subject: [CANSLIM] FORE Date: 04 May 1999 15:55:05 -0500 Is FORE a canslim stock? - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: PWahl@sysinn.com Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] FORE Date: 04 May 1999 14:59:53 -0600 > -----Original Message----- > From: Chris Hudson [SMTP:CHudson@karta.com] > Sent: Tuesday, May 04, 1999 2:55 PM > To: canslim@mail.xmission.com > Subject: [CANSLIM] FORE > > Is FORE a canslim stock? > > > [Wahl, Patrick] I thought FORE was being acquired by someone for $4 billion? If so, will trade at the acquisition price until deal is completed. - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] FORE Date: 04 May 1999 23:52:46 -0400 FORE is being acquired by GE PLC (not part of GE) for around $35/share, thus there's about a buck left in it for the arbitrage players, but nothing for the CANSLIMers. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html -----Original Message----- > -----Original Message----- > From: Chris Hudson [SMTP:CHudson@karta.com] > Sent: Tuesday, May 04, 1999 2:55 PM > To: canslim@mail.xmission.com > Subject: [CANSLIM] FORE > > Is FORE a canslim stock? > > > [Wahl, Patrick] I thought FORE was being acquired by someone for $4 billion? If so, will trade at the acquisition price until deal is completed. - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Mike Roebuck Subject: [CANSLIM] Breakout? Date: 05 May 1999 23:58:01 -0500 Hi all, I've been lurking for some time now. I've also been watching MSS and MINI for some time. They appear to be breaking out on surging volume. Any thoughts? Mike Roebuck - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Breakout? Date: 06 May 1999 06:20:17 -0400 Hi Mike, I've had MSS on my watch list for over a month now, but missed the breakout from a nice tight base on Tuesday. Now extended better than 25%, too late for a buy right now. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html -----Original Message----- Hi all, I've been lurking for some time now. I've also been watching MSS and MINI for some time. They appear to be breaking out on surging volume. Any thoughts? Mike Roebuck - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: rolatzi Subject: [CANSLIM] The group is very quiet Date: 06 May 1999 14:53:40 -0700 (PDT) Hi, I realize that we are not presently in a favorable environment for CANSLIM but just thought I would confirm my own experience, namely, I have no CANSLIM stocks that I am presently in and my watch list while large doesn't have too many CANSLIM stocks which are completing cups and handles. I missed CNTO and BBBY seems to be making a secondary base after previous breakout. I am mostly trying to protect my profits in Energy Service stocks and waiting patiently after a good run. What is everyone else doing? Ciao, rolatzi _________________________________________________________ Do You Yahoo!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Marc Laniado" Subject: Fw: [CANSLIM] The group is very quiet Date: 07 May 1999 00:15:03 +0100 Hi, Things don't seem quite so good do they! I currently hold POWI which I bought when it broke out about 2 weeks ago (I think this is a reasonable canslim stock), but got sold off today. I bought PLCE at 36, but got stopped out yesterday (automatic stop market sell) and then look what happened today!! I still hold NAV and I also got stopped out yesterday on SFP. I have read Dr Elders book on trading. It may be appropriate to consider buying some stocks in general uptrends when they start moving up. I think PVN and SDLI might (!) be buys if they move above today's highs tomorrow. They are at or approaching their 50 day moving averages. Maybe searching what the mutual funds are buying would help. PVN has been bought by a number as seen from IBD as has DNB and Ecolab. Take a look at CHB, CHRW too. Any other ideas gratefully received! All the best, Marc Marc E Laniado marclaniado@msn.com -----Original Message----- >Hi, > >I realize that we are not presently in a favorable >environment for CANSLIM but just thought I would >confirm my own experience, namely, I have no CANSLIM >stocks that I am presently in and my watch list while >large doesn't have too many CANSLIM stocks which are >completing cups and handles. I missed CNTO and BBBY >seems to be making a secondary base after previous >breakout. > >I am mostly trying to protect my profits in Energy Service >stocks and waiting patiently after a good run. > >What is everyone else doing? > >Ciao, >rolatzi > >_________________________________________________________ >Do You Yahoo!? >Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com > > >- > > - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Tim Fisher Subject: Re: Fw: [CANSLIM] The group is very quiet Date: 06 May 1999 16:27:42 -0700 I am holding onto my one CANSLIM stock (HH) and also holding onto my non-CANSLIM Mattress Stuffers. I've been nibbling at Net leaders as they approach their 50 DMA (AOL MSPG ATHM etc.), so far with mixed results. I don't even have a CANSLIM watch list right now. Zacks discontinued their free Research Marvel database updates & I have done so poorly with CANSLIM breakouts this year I don't think I will go back to buying them with the possible exception of large cap breakouts until I see some major changes in the performance of the RUT and M as a whole. On 04:15 PM 5/6/99 , Marc Laniado Said: >Hi, >Things don't seem quite so good do they! >I currently hold POWI which I bought when it broke out about 2 weeks ago (I >think this is a reasonable canslim stock), but got sold off today. I bought >PLCE at 36, but got stopped out yesterday (automatic stop market sell) and >then look what happened today!! I still hold NAV and I also got stopped out >yesterday on SFP. >I have read Dr Elders book on trading. It may be appropriate to consider >buying some stocks in general uptrends when they start moving up. I think >PVN and SDLI might (!) be buys if they move above today's highs tomorrow. >They are at or approaching their 50 day moving averages. >Maybe searching what the mutual funds are buying would help. PVN has been >bought by a number as seen from IBD as has DNB and Ecolab. Take a look at >CHB, CHRW too. > >Any other ideas gratefully received! > >All the best, >Marc > >Marc E Laniado >marclaniado@msn.com > >-----Original Message----- >From: rolatzi >To: canslim@mail.xmission.com >Date: 06 May 1999 22:53 >Subject: [CANSLIM] The group is very quiet > > >>Hi, >> >>I realize that we are not presently in a favorable >>environment for CANSLIM but just thought I would >>confirm my own experience, namely, I have no CANSLIM >>stocks that I am presently in and my watch list while >>large doesn't have too many CANSLIM stocks which are >>completing cups and handles. I missed CNTO and BBBY >>seems to be making a secondary base after previous >>breakout. >> >>I am mostly trying to protect my profits in Energy Service >>stocks and waiting patiently after a good run. >> >>What is everyone else doing? >> >>Ciao, >>rolatzi >> >>_________________________________________________________ >>Do You Yahoo!? >>Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com >> >> >>- >> >> > > > > >- > Tim Fisher Ore-Rock-On and Pacific Fishery Biologists WWW Sites Tim@OreRockOn.com WWW: http://OreRockOn.com See naked fish and rocks! - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: David Reid Subject: Re: Fw: [CANSLIM] The group is very quiet Date: 06 May 1999 20:17:07 -0700 I am buying AOL and YHOO on this dip. Marc Laniado wrote: > Hi, > Things don't seem quite so good do they! > I currently hold POWI which I bought when it broke out about 2 weeks ago (I > think this is a reasonable canslim stock), but got sold off today. I bought > PLCE at 36, but got stopped out yesterday (automatic stop market sell) and > then look what happened today!! I still hold NAV and I also got stopped out > yesterday on SFP. > I have read Dr Elders book on trading. It may be appropriate to consider > buying some stocks in general uptrends when they start moving up. I think > PVN and SDLI might (!) be buys if they move above today's highs tomorrow. > They are at or approaching their 50 day moving averages. > Maybe searching what the mutual funds are buying would help. PVN has been > bought by a number as seen from IBD as has DNB and Ecolab. Take a look at > CHB, CHRW too. > > Any other ideas gratefully received! > > All the best, > Marc > > Marc E Laniado > marclaniado@msn.com > > -----Original Message----- > From: rolatzi > To: canslim@mail.xmission.com > Date: 06 May 1999 22:53 > Subject: [CANSLIM] The group is very quiet > > >Hi, > > > >I realize that we are not presently in a favorable > >environment for CANSLIM but just thought I would > >confirm my own experience, namely, I have no CANSLIM > >stocks that I am presently in and my watch list while > >large doesn't have too many CANSLIM stocks which are > >completing cups and handles. I missed CNTO and BBBY > >seems to be making a secondary base after previous > >breakout. > > > >I am mostly trying to protect my profits in Energy Service > >stocks and waiting patiently after a good run. > > > >What is everyone else doing? > > > >Ciao, > >rolatzi > > > >_________________________________________________________ > >Do You Yahoo!? > >Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com > > > > > >- > > > > > > - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] The group is very quiet Date: 06 May 1999 21:50:00 -0400 Still fully invested, tho shifted my focus to more value than momentum. Still all in small caps, still looking for good bases (like MSS had till it broke out) with top drawer CS elements. Primary emphasis on strong growth in both earnings and sales, both sequentially and year to year. Still haven't touched a big cap or internut stock. Mostly haven't had the time or energy to concentrate, so trying to just buy and hold long term for now. Not doing much trading. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html -----Original Message----- Hi, I realize that we are not presently in a favorable environment for CANSLIM but just thought I would confirm my own experience, namely, I have no CANSLIM stocks that I am presently in and my watch list while large doesn't have too many CANSLIM stocks which are completing cups and handles. I missed CNTO and BBBY seems to be making a secondary base after previous breakout. I am mostly trying to protect my profits in Energy Service stocks and waiting patiently after a good run. What is everyone else doing? Ciao, rolatzi _________________________________________________________ Do You Yahoo!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: canslim@email.com Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] The group is very quiet Date: 06 May 1999 22:39:43 -0400 (EDT) Please exaplain what you mean by fully invested? If you have set your stop loss based on Oneil, you probably would have been out unless your are "lucky" or "very very smart" ---- On May 6 "Tom Worley" wrote: > Still fully invested, tho shifted my focus to more value > than momentum. Still all in small caps, still looking for > good bases (like MSS had till it broke out) with top drawer > CS elements. Primary emphasis on strong growth in both > earnings and sales, both sequentially and year to year. > Still haven't touched a big cap or internut stock. > > Mostly haven't had the time or energy to concentrate, so > trying to just buy and hold long term for now. Not doing > much trading. > > Tom Worley > stkguru@netside.net > chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 > get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html > > > -----Original Message----- > From: rolatzi > To: canslim@mail.xmission.com > Date: Thursday, May 06, 1999 5:53 PM > Subject: [CANSLIM] The group is very quiet > > > Hi, > > I realize that we are not presently in a favorable > environment for CANSLIM but just thought I would > confirm my own experience, namely, I have no CANSLIM > stocks that I am presently in and my watch list while > large doesn't have too many CANSLIM stocks which are > completing cups and handles. I missed CNTO and BBBY > seems to be making a secondary base after previous > breakout. > > I am mostly trying to protect my profits in Energy Service > stocks and waiting patiently after a good run. > > What is everyone else doing? > > Ciao, > rolatzi > > _________________________________________________________ > Do You Yahoo!? > Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com > > > - > > > > - > FREE! The World's Best Email Address @email.com Reserve your name now at http://www.email.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Dave Cameron Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] The group is very quiet Date: 06 May 1999 22:29:13 -0500 Actually, I agree with Tom. I haven't found anything to buy. All the strong stocks tend not to be CANSLIM. But, OTOH, I haven't really been stopped out of much of anything. I got back into CANSLIM stocks gradually. Most seem to be in a basing pattern. Although I did recently buy INOC... - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] The group is very quiet Date: 07 May 1999 06:40:29 -0400 By "fully invested" I mean I have about $44 cash left on the account. I rarely use hard stops, relying more on mental stops. Since I am only investing in small caps, typically on Nasdaq, I usually can't use hard stops anyway. Because of the lighter volume, and often larger spreads, I select stops based on the chart patterns far more than a simple 8% down from entry. While my watch list is entirely CANSLIM based, ones I own currently, tho CANSLIM at one time, do not meet some of the prerequisites presently (mostly on RS). But they do represent value for long term holds, which is currently my focus till conditions change. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html -----Original Message----- Please exaplain what you mean by fully invested? If you have set your stop loss based on Oneil, you probably would have been out unless your are "lucky" or "very very smart" ---- On May 6 "Tom Worley" wrote: > Still fully invested, tho shifted my focus to more value > than momentum. Still all in small caps, still looking for > good bases (like MSS had till it broke out) with top drawer > CS elements. Primary emphasis on strong growth in both > earnings and sales, both sequentially and year to year. > Still haven't touched a big cap or internut stock. > - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Peter Newell" Subject: [CANSLIM] My canslim watch list Date: 07 May 1999 10:01:10 -0700 This is my list of canslim stocks that are EPS 85 RS 85 and haven't hit a new high in six weeks. I haven't checked group str or chart pattern yet. FOSL FOSSIL INC NASDAQ 91 90 A B GUC GUCCI GROUP N V NYSE 93 90 A B INSS INTL NETWORK SVCS NASDAQ 99 90 A B KSS KOHLS CORP NYSE 94 86 A C LRW LABOR READY INC NYSE 99 92 A A WCOM M C I WORLDCOM INC NASDAQ 86 91 B D OCLR OCULAR SCIENCES INC NASDAQ 92 89 A A PSUN PACIFIC SUNWEAR CA INC NASDAQ 93 85 A A QLGC QLOGIC CORP NASDAQ 98 96 A B - This ones up 13 today SANM SANMINA CORP NASDAQ 91 90 A B Peter Newell - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: IMF STAFF Subject: [CANSLIM] Re:The Group Is Very Quiet Date: 07 May 1999 07:34:26 -0700 I bought SNS - Sundstrand last week (a canslim signal from pitbull.com) and it is doing very well, still making new highs... - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Connie Mack Rea Subject: [CANSLIM] ASHW [Technical stuff. Connie Mack] Date: 07 May 1999 11:59:34 -0400 Have a friend who trades stocks only between $5 and $20. Statistically, there is much to be said for trading this range. He sent me a list of stocks around $5 that he's looking at. I haven't had time to look through the list, but the first one, ASHW, has a pretty good looking recovery chart. Its positively divergent MF interests me. I bought a small lot just to play with today. Its strong action today prompts me to take a more serious look. If any of his other stocks look interesting, I'll post them. Connie Mack - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Craig Cheatum Subject: [CANSLIM] Re: AOL Daily Pattern Date: 07 May 1999 09:04:53 -0600 Does someone have experience with the chart pattern for AOL, is it positive or negative? Thanks, Craig - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Connie Mack Rea Subject: [CANSLIM] Technical stuff [$5-20 stocks. Connie Mack] Date: 07 May 1999 12:36:22 -0400 I don't have time yet to give more than a cursory look at the list of stocks sent by my trader friend. This is the list: NEOM, YORK, CEGE, LTXX, CYLK, FCLX, DSTR, ICA, RSND, and MXTR. Were these not five dollar or so stocks, the charts would carry greater significance. Some are damn interesting. >From my quick look, YORK looks to have some possibilities. Hope to have time later to look more carefully. Connie Mack - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Peter Newell" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Re: AOL Daily Pattern Date: 07 May 1999 12:44:47 -0700 Long or short? I'd consider this negative two fast peaks with the second one lower, which is where I'd hope to sell at. The whole internet sector is going down AOL's been going up strong for 2-3 yrs now. I sure wouldn't do an initial buy on it. Might be good for a bounce. But, I'd expect it to go down again. Now that I said that it will form a double bottom and soar to unbelievable heights. Peter Newell -----Original Message----- >Does someone have experience with the chart pattern for AOL, is it positive or negative? >Thanks, >Craig > > >- > > - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Dan Cash Subject: [CANSLIM] Jeffry's take Date: 07 May 1999 11:20:28 -0700 Jeffry, What is your unique take on this market?? Dan - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Walter Stock Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] The group is very quiet Date: 07 May 1999 15:25:22 -0400 Am currently 100% cash in my trading account. Sentiment in the market is getting far too bullish for me to commit much more capital at present. As of yesterday's IBD, bullish sentiment moved up to 58.6%, and bearish declined to 27.6% With the bulls already in the stratosphere, the focus here has to be on the bears; if they move down below 22%, I will be liquidating some long term stuff left in the retirement accounts. Speaking of which... my ATHM adventure continues. No shortage of internet excitement here, as I continue to hold. Even thought of adding to my position on the AT&T announcement. I am so impressed with my cable-modem's blinding speed that perhaps I am biased in favour of ATHM. In any case I was able to de-activate my second phone line, and if my Bell company ever gets around to offering DSL service, I won't go back anyway. Cable internet is faster. So far, cable broadband is vastly more reliable too. I will sign off before this turns into even more of a cable internet ad. ( Did I mention that I bought DCLK ?) Walter Stock Oakville, ONT - Canada - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Chris Hudson Subject: [CANSLIM] QLGC way up Friday Date: 07 May 1999 16:27:41 -0500 Man, I wish I owned QLGC right now! -- Chris - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Tim Fisher Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] The group is very quiet Date: 07 May 1999 15:32:40 -0700 Good for you, when the guy who is buying my house said the biggest factor in his decision was that my house is cable modem-ready (I didn't even know that it was!) I bought ATHM the next day. Of course I am probably buying a non-cable house in the woods, so I'm not ready to sell the old 56k yet. If you can't beat 'em... On 12:25 PM 5/7/99 , Walter Stock Said: >Am currently 100% cash in my trading account. >Sentiment in the market is getting far too bullish for me >to commit much more capital at present. > >As of yesterday's IBD, bullish sentiment moved up to 58.6%, >and bearish declined to 27.6% >With the bulls already in the stratosphere, the focus here has >to be on the bears; if they move down below 22%, I will >be liquidating some long term stuff left in the retirement accounts. > >Speaking of which... my ATHM adventure continues. >No shortage of internet excitement here, as I continue to hold. >Even thought of adding to my position on the AT&T >announcement. > >I am so impressed with my cable-modem's blinding speed >that perhaps I am biased in favour of ATHM. > >In any case I was able to de-activate my second phone line, >and if my Bell company ever gets around to offering DSL >service, I won't go back anyway. Cable internet is faster. >So far, cable broadband is vastly more reliable too. > >I will sign off before this turns into even more of a cable >internet ad. ( Did I mention that I bought DCLK ?) > >Walter Stock >Oakville, ONT - Canada > Tim Fisher Ore-Rock-On and Pacific Fishery Biologists WWW Sites Tim@OreRockOn.com WWW: http://OreRockOn.com See naked fish and rocks! - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Frank V. Wolynski" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] The group is very quiet Date: 07 May 1999 20:35:27 -0400 At 03:25 PM 5/7/99 -0400, you wrote: >Am currently 100% cash in my trading account. >Sentiment in the market is getting far too bullish for me >to commit much more capital at present. > Ditto. >I am so impressed with my cable-modem's blinding speed >that perhaps I am biased in favour of ATHM. > Three of the people I work with have switched and they will not go back. ADSL is too late and too expensive!!! The 30 - 40 year old wiring the phone companies have in most areas won't even allow 56k. Besides it is only 56k on the download at best. The uplink is restricted to 33.6k by regulation. I haven't switched over yet, but regretably am having serious trouble getting connected to Mindspring in Tampa. They will start losing customers soon. Now that GTE is being bought, it will take years to sort everything out and get moving with a competitive strategy. GTE is the local carrier in Tampa. I think cable will have a stronghold at that point. So the market forces are at work in Tampa. They are outdated phone technology in the majority of areas trying to compete with blinding speed via direct full time connection to a cable modem. At only $20 a month more a month. It's a no-brainer, especially when you can't stay connected for more than 5 minutes and only get 24kbps from your 56k modem. I'm counting the days till I a convert. Best Regards, Frank Wolynski - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Ronald J. Russell, Jr." Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] The group is very quiet Date: 07 May 1999 21:36:11 -0400 I have been using @Home via Comcast for nearly 2 years now and can't imagine being without it. With a cable modem you are truly on line all the time. You receive your email as soon as it is sent and your web browser is just another application that is always active on your desktop. The idea of "going online" is a thing of the past. If cable modem service is available in your area, get it! You won't regret it. Ron -----Original Message----- [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com] On Behalf Of Frank V. Wolynski Sent: Friday, May 07, 1999 8:35 PM At 03:25 PM 5/7/99 -0400, you wrote: >Am currently 100% cash in my trading account. >Sentiment in the market is getting far too bullish for me >to commit much more capital at present. > Ditto. >I am so impressed with my cable-modem's blinding speed >that perhaps I am biased in favour of ATHM. > Three of the people I work with have switched and they will not go back. ADSL is too late and too expensive!!! The 30 - 40 year old wiring the phone companies have in most areas won't even allow 56k. Besides it is only 56k on the download at best. The uplink is restricted to 33.6k by regulation. I haven't switched over yet, but regretably am having serious trouble getting connected to Mindspring in Tampa. They will start losing customers soon. Now that GTE is being bought, it will take years to sort everything out and get moving with a competitive strategy. GTE is the local carrier in Tampa. I think cable will have a stronghold at that point. So the market forces are at work in Tampa. They are outdated phone technology in the majority of areas trying to compete with blinding speed via direct full time connection to a cable modem. At only $20 a month more a month. It's a no-brainer, especially when you can't stay connected for more than 5 minutes and only get 24kbps from your 56k modem. I'm counting the days till I a convert. Best Regards, Frank Wolynski - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] QLGC way up Friday Date: 07 May 1999 22:18:02 -0400 Chris, A strong showing, commensurate with the strong earnings report of a double in earnings over last year, over 50% growth in revenues, beat First Call estimates by 5 cents, and favorable comments for future growth. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html -----Original Message----- Man, I wish I owned QLGC right now! -- Chris - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Re:The Group Is Very Quiet Date: 07 May 1999 22:49:04 -0400 Worth noting that the analyst's consensus forecast at DGO is a 1999 earnings of $4.50, up only 13%, and the company has advised that they "expect" 1999 earnings of $4.24 to $4.55. While 13% growth may seem attractive, it's still down substantially from their historic level of 28%. And the forecast for year 2000 is for $4.65, a gain of only 3%. A trailing PE of only 17 may make it look like good value, but looks to me like the reduced expectations are already factored in, and the low growth in Q1 may be a precursor of results yet to be reported. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html -----Original Message----- Cc: canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com I bought SNS - Sundstrand last week (a canslim signal from pitbull.com) and it is doing very well, still making new highs... - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Dave Cameron Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Re:The Group Is Very Quiet Date: 07 May 1999 22:42:16 -0500 IMF STAFF wrote: > > I bought SNS - Sundstrand last week (a canslim signal from pitbull.com) and > it is doing very well, still making new highs... Interesting, SNS is operating under a takeover bid. I don't know the specifics of the proposed merger, but I do know that those in the know seem to think it will go through. Dave Cameron dfcameron@ameritech.net > > - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Dave Cameron Subject: [CANSLIM] Jeffry and the market Date: 07 May 1999 22:45:42 -0500 Someone recently posted an inquiry into Jeffry's take on the market. Given the unusual spelling, I suspect this is my good friend, the incomparable Jeffry White. I must say, I am disappointed. Big Jeff has been awfully quiet of late. Perhaps he's taken his stock winnings and bought a house on Grand Cayman island - and has forgot about us. But... I doubt it. He'd miss the camaraderie. Seriously, I post this because Jeffry often stimulated some contentious discussion, but discussion that many learned from by being asked to think about things from several different perspectives. Jeffry, are you alive??? Dave Cameron dfcameron@ameritech.net - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Dave Cameron Subject: [CANSLIM] BigCharts Date: 07 May 1999 22:48:12 -0500 Has anyone else noticed that the daily charts at www.bigcharts.com seem to be missing yesterday's (Thursday May 6) trading action? The charts are correct as of Friday's close - but the preceding day on the chart seems to be Wednesday May 4 - based on the price and volume action. Or am I just missing something? Dave Cameron dfcameron@ameritech.net (who probably has 1/3 of the posts for the day...) - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Dave Cameron Subject: [CANSLIM] BigCharts revisited Date: 07 May 1999 22:49:59 -0500 Forget it - I'm losing it. I forgot that I switched from daily to weekly last night - and forgot to change it back. Apologies.... I'll shut up now. Dave Cameron dfcameron@ameritech.net - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Patrick Wahl" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] The group is very quiet Date: 07 May 1999 22:56:45 -0800 Date sent: Thu, 6 May 1999 14:53:40 -0700 (PDT) > I am mostly trying to protect my profits in Energy Service > stocks and waiting patiently after a good run. > > What is everyone else doing? Since I got my butt kicked in March, I have been a bit gunshy for the time being. Really haven't found much I think is attractive looking (and my usual research site has been closed for over 2 weeks, no DG), so don't have much of a watch list. TOM is in a base of some sort, that is one I am watching. Anyone else think the Russell 2000 looks like it is forming something along the lines of a cup and handle? I'm not sure whether this is a meaningful pattern in an index or not. - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] The group is very quiet Date: 08 May 1999 08:01:11 -0400 Hi Patrick, I also noticed the c&h like pattern in the R2000, tho also doubt it's significance in an index. In any case, the handle is forming a little too high to be useful or significant to me (or is that just it's youthful exurberance at finally outperforming some of the big boy indexes?). Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html -----Original Message----- Anyone else think the Russell 2000 looks like it is forming something along the lines of a cup and handle? I'm not sure whether this is a meaningful pattern in an index or not. - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: [CANSLIM] DGO's List of Stocks at/near new highs Date: 08 May 1999 18:41:39 -0400 Hello members, Had the time tonight to quickly scroll thru the 184 stocks that made this week's list. Here are my margin comments: VISX - potential base DFXI - possible 2nd breakout SDLI - possible LLUR, tho higher volatility TAGS - base TLAB - base forming FM - broke out, still buyable? DSP - poised for breakout/breakdown BBBY, CTS - basing TYC, IBM - base forming UTX - resuming LLUR?? NVR - poss base forming, PE only 8?? (home construction?) MLM - cup and handle? but handle too high BCOM - basing FDC - possible base forming MDS, AATI - basing Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Dave Rubin" Subject: [CANSLIM] RE: ADSL Date: 08 May 1999 19:08:14 -0400 Frank V. Wolynski wrote: > ADSL is too late and too expensive!!! The 30 - 40 year old wiring > the phone > companies have in most areas won't even allow 56k. Besides it is only 56k > on the download at best. The uplink is restricted to 33.6k by regulation. Sorry, but you are mistaken. The limitation you describe is for V.90 56kb modems. ADSL is a dedicated connection that runs at much higher speeds. Theoretically up to 8Mbps but in practice today it usually tops out at T-1 speeds (1.5Mbps). My ADSL connection runs at 384kbps in both directions. It is fast and reliable and costs me $60 per month including Internet access. Cable modems today are faster, but that may soon change as more subscribers log on. Since cable is a shared medium, the more people that get connected in your area, the slower the speed will be. Also, since it is a shared medium, it is possible for others to spy on your transmissions. Nevertheless, I do agree that cable access is a superior choice to ADSL today. However, that may change soon as DSL speeds increase and cable companies start to see capacity constraints. Good stocks in the ADSL arena: AWRE, COVD, RTHM, ORCT. In the cable arena: BRCM, CNXT. - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: musicant@pacbell.net (Dan Musicant) Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] RE: ADSL Date: 08 May 1999 23:23:34 GMT On Sat, 8 May 1999 19:08:14 -0400, you wrote: :Frank V. Wolynski wrote: : :> ADSL is too late and too expensive!!! The 30 - 40 year old wiring :> the phone :> companies have in most areas won't even allow 56k. Besides it is only = 56k :> on the download at best. The uplink is restricted to 33.6k by = regulation. : :Sorry, but you are mistaken. The limitation you describe is for V.90 = 56kb :modems. Dave is right. : :ADSL is a dedicated connection that runs at much higher speeds. :Theoretically up to 8Mbps but in practice today it usually tops out at = T-1 :speeds (1.5Mbps). There are different levels of ADSL. My provider has a service that is 2 to 3 times faster than what I'm getting, but naturally it's quite a bit more expensive. It also accommodates up to 6 computers. :My ADSL connection runs at 384kbps in both directions. It is fast and :reliable and costs me $60 per month including Internet access. My cost is about $50/month. I am getting download speeds up to and over 1 megabits per second, which is three times what Dave describes above. Upload speeds are 128 kbps, guaranteed, possibly faster in reality. They guarantee 384 kbps download. I have repeatedly downloaded a 10 megabyte file in 68 - 70 seconds, which I calculate at 1.14 megabits/sec. A byte is 8 bits. I had quite a bit of difficulty getting things running reliably and smoothly. After 3 weeks, the wrinkles were finally ironed out. However, my provider has been plagued with intermittent email problems of late. The fast growth is not without its growing pains.=20 : :Cable modems today are faster, but that may soon change as more = subscribers :log on. Since cable is a shared medium, the more people that get = connected :in your area, the slower the speed will be. Also, since it is a shared :medium, it is possible for others to spy on your transmissions. Cable is not always faster. : :Nevertheless, I do agree that cable access is a superior choice to ADSL :today. However, that may change soon as DSL speeds increase and cable :companies start to see capacity constraints. : :Good stocks in the ADSL arena: AWRE, COVD, RTHM, ORCT. : :In the cable arena: BRCM, CNXT. Also ATHM, and I would think T at this point. It will be interesting to see how things develop in the competition between these two technologies in the burgeoning broadband market. Dan - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: postwhit@sover.net Subject: [CANSLIM] Lambing Date: 08 May 1999 21:12:00 -0400 > Date: Fri, 07 May 1999 11:20:28 -0700 > From: Dan Cash > Subject: [CANSLIM] Jeffry's take > > Jeffry, > > What is your unique take on this market?? > > Dan > > I have no clue, Dan, really. My family spent the late winter and spring in the barn, mostly, beginning to learn how to raise sheep. Had three yearling maiden ewes each lamb out twins. A first for all of us, and we made it fairly well. From learning how to feed to giving injections, to harnessing one poor girl up with bailing twine to keep her from dying from a vaginal prolapse due to her small stature with large twins. Then, learning how to tube feed helpless lambs, still wet and shivering in sub-zero temperatures, bottle feeding and fighting mastitus and various ailments, and now watching them start to ruminate after a day on lush pasture. Quite a learning curve, similar to the markets. Just when all seems well, a near calamity occurs....just when it all seems for naught and the slaughter house is the only solution, the sun comes out and all is well. Pushing and pulling, confident and meak, fearful and greedy, hopeful and fantastical....all in my little barn surrounded by snow which now gives way to lush green pasture. Hope you all are well. JW - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Connie Mack Rea Subject: [CANSLIM] Technical stuff: DELL [Connie Mack] Date: 08 May 1999 21:30:52 -0400 DELL, and recently MU and AMD, have proven good trades for me. Other stocks that made a few dollars have been posted earlier. I think DELL is beginning to look stronger. Compaq's giving up on certain PC's ought to give DELL a modest boost. Numbers that I have seen on DELL look promising. DELL reports, I believe, on the 21st. [Of marginal interest, DELL has opened a new super fast search engine at http://www.alltheweb.com.] I have positions in DELL [38 7/16] and MU [40]. MU is a bit of a gamble. I'll continue to accumulate DELL down to 36 and up through around 40. Some things ought to be clear at 40. A stock that I will buy in small quantities is VRTX. Pull it up on BigCharts and look at the MF/OBV. Both are positively divergent and strongly so. The MACD is about to cross [blue through the red line]. This is, however, a weak buy signal because it is crossing below the zero line. There is long term significant support between 20-21. The SloSto needs a couple more up days to turn as does the Parabolic. A nice indicator for checking market trend can be found at http://www.marketgauge.com/gauges/last.html. You can click all the items in the left box. E.g., click Value Line 5% Swing Model and get an explanation. You can also click on Chart in the right box and get a chart of the Swing Model. Connie Mack - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Bill Ford" Subject: [CANSLIM] Free Stock Research Tools Date: 08 May 1999 22:53:31 -0400 Free Stock Research Tools Including Canslim screening and more! http://www.investorseek.com/stocks Win a Laptop!!! Signup for your FREE lifetime email address at http://www.gotmail.com. Your Gotmail email address is available to you around the world anytime, 24 hours a day. Get your friends on Gotmail today and be a Hero!!! - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Frank V. Wolynski" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] RE: ADSL Date: 09 May 1999 01:02:06 -0400 At 07:08 PM 5/8/99 -0400, you wrote: >Frank V. Wolynski wrote: > >> ADSL is too late and too expensive!!! The 30 - 40 year old wiring >> the phone >> companies have in most areas won't even allow 56k. Besides it is only 56k >> on the download at best. The uplink is restricted to 33.6k by regulation. > >Sorry, but you are mistaken. The limitation you describe is for V.90 56kb >modems. > I mixed sentences together in a quick session and I apologize for being unclear. I still contend that ADSL is too late and too expensive. It is available in my area and no one I know is opting for it. The rates you quoted must be regulated, I believe GTE in Tampa is charging the same. You are right, the limitation I was describing is for V.90 56kb modems. Which I have and cannot enjoy. The wiring in my neighborhood is old and rarely allows connections above 24k - 28k. The cables are supposed to be limiting the number of users per trunk/circuit/router to ensure reasonable continuous connectivity, but who knows what that means. I would imagine the users would demand performance or move on. Choices, I love it! I like the multiple computer connections with ADSL however and that will be a problem with cable modems. I've thought of running a proxy since I use NT and multiple workstations, however with ADSL I wouldn't need the proxy. Do they allow you to subnet the IP or give you multiple IP's with ADSL? This doesn't cost extra? Thanks and best regards, Frank Wolynski - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Johan Van Houtven Subject: [CANSLIM] R2K (was: The group is very quiet) Date: 08 May 1999 19:38:28 +0200 At 08:01 AM 5/8/99 -0400, you wrote: >Hi Patrick, > >I also noticed the c&h like pattern in the R2000, tho also >doubt it's significance in an index. Definately significant, as WON mentioned a cup and handle pattern in one of his NASDAQ chart market analysis articles in IBD approx a year or so ago (or is it already 2 years ago? I'm gettting old... ;^). In any case, the handle >is forming a little too high to be useful or significant to >me (or is that just it's youthful exurberance at finally >outperforming some of the big boy indexes?). Not to high for a index cup & handle IMHO. Johan - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] R2K (was: The group is very quiet) Date: 09 May 1999 04:40:53 -0400 Johan, Thanks for the feedback. If I understand you correctly then, you would view the small cap sector as poised for a potential move one way or the other? Any other indicators on this? I do note that the RS has been trending up very slightly in the handle, as volume as slightly dropped. Gives me some encouragement that the move will be to the upside when it happens.Most other indexes I look at have been showing slightly descending RS. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html -----Original Message----- At 08:01 AM 5/8/99 -0400, you wrote: >Hi Patrick, > >I also noticed the c&h like pattern in the R2000, tho also >doubt it's significance in an index. Definately significant, as WON mentioned a cup and handle pattern in one of his NASDAQ chart market analysis articles in IBD approx a year or so ago (or is it already 2 years ago? I'm gettting old... ;^). In any case, the handle >is forming a little too high to be useful or significant to >me (or is that just it's youthful exurberance at finally >outperforming some of the big boy indexes?). Not to high for a index cup & handle IMHO. Johan - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: mckeen@ix.netcom.com Subject: [CANSLIM] The Group Is Very Quiet Date: 09 May 1999 08:13:57 -0500 (CDT) Tom, Which stock are you talking about here? Mary - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: mckeen@ix.netcom.com Subject: [CANSLIM] The Group Is Very Quiet Date: 09 May 1999 08:17:20 -0500 (CDT) Tom, Just disregard my previous one. I'm out of it. Know which stock you're referring to - Sundstrand. Sorry , Mary - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Peter Newell" Subject: [CANSLIM] GIC B/O Date: 09 May 1999 10:11:08 -0700 IBD has mentioned this one twice last week looks like a classic breakout to me. Peter - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Connie Mack Rea Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] GIC B/O Date: 09 May 1999 10:29:26 -0400 Believe you're on to something, Peter. Nice looking chart. Connie Mack Peter Newell wrote: > IBD has mentioned this one twice last week looks like a classic breakout to > me. > > Peter > > - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "David S. Pinhasik" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] GIC B/O Date: 09 May 1999 18:04:39 +0300 Is it CANSLIM? I can't find it on the Russell list. David ----- Original Message ----- Sent: Sunday, May 09, 1999 5:29 PM >Believe you're on to something, Peter. > >Nice looking chart. > >Connie Mack > > > > >Peter Newell wrote: > >> IBD has mentioned this one twice last week looks like a classic breakout to >> me. >> >> Peter >> >> - > > > > >- > - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Johan Van Houtven Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] R2K (was: The group is very quiet) Date: 09 May 1999 18:12:13 +0200 At 04:40 AM 5/9/99 -0400, you wrote: >Johan, > >Thanks for the feedback. If I understand you correctly >then, you would view the small cap sector as poised for a >potential move one way or the other? Indeed. It has been rumbling for a few months now. >Any other indicators on >this? Alas, no. Just waiting patientely. Maybe one *slight* positive: I hear very little talk about small caps in the media. Maybe people have given up on them - so from a contrarian viewpoint they might now start their advance. Haven't traded for many weeks now. Just watching the markets. Good to prove to myself that I can do this (not trade at all). Using the free time to do other useful things. All the best, Johan - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] GIC B/O Date: 09 May 1999 12:39:49 -0400 David, it's a bad idea to think that just because a stock is not listed in a member's interpretation of CANSLIM that it is not CS. And that goes for any lists that I post. Instead, I would recommend members consult IBD for current data (go to the library if necessary, or better still buy the Friday edition each week and keep it handy). In any case latest data on GIC is: RS 89, EPS 80, A/D A, Timeliness A, GRS 95, Group Telecom Equip, Management 15%, Funds 29%, ROE 9%, last two qtrs earnings up 160% and 54%. Annual earnings only available for three years: .38, .45, .80 and estimate for 1999 is .90 and for year 2000 1.10. ADV is 1,115,800 and Friday's volume was well over twice this. I don't like the high funds ownership, nor the low ROE. It has a volatile chart that has been inconsistent. May be trying to form a shallow cup and handle. Friday's move was off a very short two week base, which has marked its pattern since its most recent bottom in mid-March. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html -----Original Message----- Is it CANSLIM? I can't find it on the Russell list. David ----- Original Message ----- Sent: Sunday, May 09, 1999 5:29 PM >Believe you're on to something, Peter. > >Nice looking chart. > >Connie Mack > > > > >Peter Newell wrote: > >> IBD has mentioned this one twice last week looks like a classic breakout to >> me. >> >> Peter >> >> - > > > > >- > - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: [CANSLIM] More on Economics (was Fw: Weekly Economic Update) Date: 08 May 1999 17:35:00 -0400 Once again, Bob Bose has so well summarized the week's economic events that I have little to add to it. I urge member's to read carefully the words of Chairman Greenspan that he has excerpted below. While many members may not be focusing on the recent sharp rise in the long bond rate (e.g. increased selling pressure), I think you should pay attention. As rates rise, the cost of business also rises, thus generating a further pricing increase pressure, along with labor costs. Over the next three months or so, I do not see productivity increases able to keep up with these two factors, and we may start to see some solid evidence of inflation. I still do not expect any rate hikes to come out of the May FOMC meeting, however we may end up seeing a formal move to a hike bias. And if in several months we see actual proof of inflation, then a hike late this year becomes far more problematical. I still do not expect a "mid meeting" hike unilaterally by Mr. G, nor do I expect a pre-emptive strike without some evidence of inflation. But with the slowly strengthening Asian economies, stabilizing and increasing prices in oil based economies, and a probable stabilizing European economy, I think by late this year Greenspan may have room to hike rates if there is articulable evidence of inflation. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html -----Original Message----- WELCOME - Vol. 4 No. 20 TIMELY INVESTMENT INFORMATION - Weekly Economic Update ====================================================== WEEKLY UPDATE FOR: May 8, 1999 Prior Week in Review: Financial Market Highlights: ============================ 5/07/99 4/30/99 %Change S&P 500 1,345.00 1,335.18 +.74% Dow Jones 11,031.59 10,789.04 +2.25% NASD Comp 2,503.62 2,542.87 -1.54% Russell 2000 436.11 432.81 +.76% SOX Index 386.96 370.27 +4.51% Value Line 452.88 445.47 +1.66% MS Growth 563.99 561.56 +.43% MS Cyclical 617.46 596.74 +3.47% T - Bill 4.47% 4.43% +4 BP Long Bond 5.81% 5.67% +14 BP Gold - Oz-Near Month $283.70 $287.90 -$4.20 Silver - Oz-Near Month $5.45 $5.40 +$.05 Economic News: ============== An Awful Lot of Data Last Week - Mostly Reinforcing Economic Growth Remains Very Strong - Greenspan Agrees Bond Market Also Adopting Our View - Valuation Worsens *National Assn. of Purchasing Managers' Index eases to 52.8 from 54.3 - Does Not Confirm Chicago Index - But Pricing Components Worsened - See Below *March Consumer Spending rose +.4% - Incomes up +.4% *Construction Spending for March rose +.5% *Car and Light Truck Sales for April were a very strong 16.8 million annualized rate *March Leading Indicators edged up +.1% - See Below *Factory Orders for March rose +2.0% - February revised Upward, but still negative *Federal Reserve Beige Book - Some interesting data *Jobless Claims rose +6,000 to 301,000 - Four Week Moving Average fell -500 to 307,000 *March Wholesale Inventories up +.3% - Sales rose +1.7% - Inventory/Sales Ratio falls to 1.30 months *Consumer Installment Credit for March rose +$1.6 billion Sharp slowdown to +1.4% annualized rate *Labor Department Report for April - Unemployment Rate edges up +.1% to 4.3% - NonFarm Payrolls expand by 234,000 - Average Workweek up +.1/hr to 34.5 hours - Average Hourly Earnings rose +$.03/hr Sometimes, and now is one of those times, the economic data is unequivocal - economic growth is currently very strong, and the forward looking indicators suggest that it will remain very strong for the foreseeable future. While we are more than happy to concede that inflation is virtually non-existent at the moment, we have long believed that the risks were to the upside. And last week we gained an articulate adherent for our view - Federal Reserve Board (FRB) Chairman Alan Greenspan. In addition, longer term interest rates have been increasing, and they moved sharply higher in the week just ended, so more than a few bond investors are beginning to adopt our outlook. The evidence is compelling. First the National Assn. of Purchasing Managers' Index was somewhat surprising given the large increase in the Chicago Index. But on Wednesday, the National Assn. released their index for the Service Sector of the economy. Here are the numbers. December 49.5 January 54.0 February 57.0 March 62.5 April 64.0 Looks like a trend to me. And, the Service Sector is more important to the United States economy than manufacturing. And, as noted above, the pricing components of the National Index worsened. For instance, 15% of the survey respondents expect to pay higher prices, versus 9% in March and only 4% early in the year. And those expecting to pay less have declined by half. The issue here is not the level, but the trend. It may be an early warning shot that pricing pressures are beginning to build if the economy remains robust. The Leading Indicators Index implies that it will. For instance, while the overall increase was only +.1% the major detractors were Consumer Expectations at -.05% and Building Permits at -.06%. We believe these numbers are simply inconsistent with other recently reported data or the ability to adjust the seasonal factors for bad weather in March that reduced nonfarm payroll growth. One other factor to be noted in that same report is that the largest positive contributor, at +.06%, was Slower Deliveries - not a good omen. This is a number that Chairman Greenspan pays a lot of attention to because of the potential for bottlenecks to develop which could lead to inflationary pressures. Then there was the Beige Book, the Federal Reserve Survey of Business conditions in each district that was prepared for the upcoming meeting of the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC). Essentially the comments were more of the same, in that demand was good, but soft for those exporting, labor markets remained tight, but wage pressures were absent. However, the report did note that many firms were paying bonuses to higher level employees, and skilled workers were receiving hiring and retention bonuses. Those bonuses may not show up in average hourly earnings, but after some lag they should show up in unit labor costs. Also adding support to our argument for continuing above trend growth was the solid growth reported by most retailers, even though Easter was early this year. In the context of a declining inventory/sales ratio (noted above), production should remain strong for the foreseeable future. And, as most know, Chairman Greenspan gave a speech on Thursday that rocked the markets, but only for a while. But his comments should have had a more lasting impact. For instance, he noted we are not " ... in a new era." The implication is the old rules still apply. Or, as he stated referring to the tight labor markets " ... the rise in nominal wages will start increasingly outpacing the gains in labor productivity, and prices inevitably will then eventually begin to accelerate." Translation - the Phillips Curve (which implies a trade-off between lower employment and rising inflation) still carries weight at the FRB. He also implied, again, that the rise in stock prices " ... has reached well beyond the justifiable." And, that " ... neither the fundamental laws of economics, nor human nature, on which they are based, has changed, or is likely to change." Simply put, the FRB admits to being somewhat unsure why inflationary pressures have yet to materialize, but they remain convinced, as we do, that unless the economy slows, inflation will accelerate. In other words, our view hasn't changed, but the "world" is coming around to our view. A slight exaggeration, but essentially correct. And we see absolutely no need to alter our forecast that the interest rate risks remain to the upside. One final point. The FRB stock market evaluation model went from 26% overvalued at the end of March to 36% overvalued at the end of April because of the increase in interest rates. So, obviously valuation has worsened, making the markets more susceptible to every bit of data that might alter the consensus forecast, particularly now that the "earnings season" is largely over. Stay tuned, volatility will remain with us for the foreseeable future ! Current Weekly Calendar of Economic Data: ========================================= Monday: Tuesday: Richmond Federal Reserve Board (FRB) Index, Unit Labor Costs Wednesday: Atlanta FRB Index Thursday: Jobless Claims, Producer Price Index, Retail Sales Friday: Consumer Price Index, Industrial Production / Capacity Utilization, Business Inventories, Univ. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment As we continue to build both our Newsletter and our Website, we welcome your feedback, so please feel free to e-mail me at: mailto:bobbose@stockresearch.com To UNSUBSCRIBE, just send an e-mail to: timely-invest-off@mail-list.com Be sure to use the e-mail address from which you subscribed. To SUBSCRIBE, just send an e-mail to: timely-invest-on@mail-list.com To CHANGE, put either your new or old e-mail address in the subject line and the other address in the from line and send to: timely-invest-change@mail-list.com DISCLAIMER: =========== The foregoing has been prepared solely for informational purposes and is not a solicitation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. It does not purport to be a complete description of the securities, markets, or developments referred to in the material. All expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice. The information is obtained from internal and external sources which we consider reliable but we have not independently verified such information and we do not guarantee that it is accurate or complete. We do not undertake to advise you to any changes in figures or our views. We, our employees, clients, and or officers and directors, may from time to time have a long or short position in the securities mentioned and may sell or buy such securities. -- Bob Bose Green Mtn. Asset Mgt. Corp., 139 Bank Street, Burlington, VT 05401 FREE Investment Newsletter - http://www.stockresearch.com FREE Trial Investor's Business Daily http://www.stockresearch.com/ibdform.html 800 - 385- 2673 / 802 - 658 - 7806 - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: musicant@pacbell.net (Dan Musicant) Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] RE: ADSL Date: 09 May 1999 22:50:38 GMT On Sun, 09 May 1999 01:02:06 -0400, you wrote: :At 07:08 PM 5/8/99 -0400, you wrote: :>Frank V. Wolynski wrote: :> :>> ADSL is too late and too expensive!!! The 30 - 40 year old wiring :>> the phone :>> companies have in most areas won't even allow 56k. Besides it is only= 56k :>> on the download at best. The uplink is restricted to 33.6k by = regulation. :> :>Sorry, but you are mistaken. The limitation you describe is for V.90 = 56kb :>modems. :> : :I mixed sentences together in a quick session and I apologize for being :unclear.=20 : :I still contend that ADSL is too late and too expensive. It is available= in :my area and no one I know is opting for it. The rates you quoted must be :regulated, I believe GTE in Tampa is charging the same.=20 I called my cable company (the only one offering cable modems in my area) and they told me that as of the moment they are not offering the service in my locale, so ADSL was my only broadband option. That may change, but for the time being I am locked into ADSL for a year. That is, if I don't want to pay the $200 or so penalty for quiting them before a year is up. : :You are right, the limitation I was describing is for V.90 56kb modems. :Which I have and cannot enjoy. The wiring in my neighborhood is old and :rarely allows connections above 24k - 28k. The cables are supposed to be :limiting the number of users per trunk/circuit/router to ensure = reasonable :continuous connectivity, but who knows what that means. I would imagine = the :users would demand performance or move on. Choices, I love it! : :I like the multiple computer connections with ADSL however and that will= be :a problem with cable modems. I've thought of running a proxy since I use= NT :and multiple workstations, however with ADSL I wouldn't need the proxy. = Do :they allow you to subnet the IP or give you multiple IP's with ADSL?=20 :This doesn't cost extra? I think what you get will depend on your provider and you should contact them with those questions.=20 My impression is that even 50 year old copper wiring is usually OK for DSL. The main requirement is that you be within about 17,500 feet (as the wires lie) from your "central office". That being the case, they can "guarantee" transmission rates. Sometimes if there are T1 lines or other "disrupters" in the same cable trunk you can have problems, however it is the provider's responsiblility to get you the guaranteed transmission rates. Usually, you get much better, as in my case.=20 There are new DSL modems about to come on the market that increase the 17,500 foot limitation to something like 24,000, which is over 4 miles. Dan : :Thanks and best regards, :Frank Wolynski : : :- : - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: rolatzi Subject: [CANSLIM] C&H: TMBS Date: 09 May 1999 19:13:49 -0700 (PDT) An old friend that broke out a year or so ago and then broke down again is forming a pretty nice cup and handle. Its financials are as good as they were a year ago. Tom, are you holding this one? Seems I remember it was on you list of holdings a while ago. check it out. ciao, rolatzi _________________________________________________________ Do You Yahoo!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Connie Mack Rea Subject: [CANSLIM] Useful equity site. [Connie Mack] Date: 09 May 1999 22:46:05 -0400 Some of our new members might appreciate this site. It is only marginally useful for trading, but investors may find it apt. I have inserted DELL. You may look at any stock you like. http://www.vectorvest.com/stockreport/analysis.phtml?vvnumber=1033&symbol=dell I've run one of Tom's favorites [TMBS] through the screen. You'll sleep better tonight, Tom. Connie Mack - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Dave Cameron Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] RE: ADSL Date: 09 May 1999 21:50:01 -0500 Dan Musicant wrote: > > > My impression is that even 50 year old copper wiring is usually OK for > DSL. The main requirement is that you be within about 17,500 feet (as > the wires lie) from your "central office". That being the case, they can > "guarantee" transmission rates. I suppose there has to be some advantage to having a lister who works for the local phone company. I work for Ameritech (AIT - which is actually pretty close to a CANSLIM stock - if a $16 billion company can qualify...), the primary Bell for the Great Lakes area. Dan is correct. It doesn't matter how old the wiring is. For Ameritech, we require the prospective customer of ADSL to be within 10,000 linear feet of the local central office. After that, too much degradation occurs. We don't want to risk charging $50/month for a service that doesn't live up to its billing. So... if you live between 2 and 4 miles of the central office - the ADSL might work - but it might not gain you anything. FWIW, I have cable access in my area, but don't download enough to make it worth $59.95/month... Dave Cameron dfcameron@ameritech.net - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] C&H: TMBS Date: 10 May 1999 00:08:56 -0400 Not only still holding it, but bot more when it was down. Got a nice profit on it so far. One of my long term holdings based on its fundies more so than CS. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html -----Original Message----- An old friend that broke out a year or so ago and then broke down again is forming a pretty nice cup and handle. Its financials are as good as they were a year ago. Tom, are you holding this one? Seems I remember it was on you list of holdings a while ago. check it out. ciao, rolatzi _________________________________________________________ Do You Yahoo!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: FBNAirPlt@aol.com Subject: [CANSLIM] Acc/Dis Numbers Date: 10 May 1999 07:34:26 EDT Here are the Latest Acc/Dis Numbers: Date A B C D E AB/A:E %E 4/29/99 1420 2839 1135 864 368 64% 6% 4/30/99 1469 2820 1153 862 354 64% 5% 5/3/99 1514 2799 1146 854 349 65% 5% 5/4/99 1533 2795 1136 869 343 65% 5% 5/5/99 1597 2818 1108 849 309 66% 5% 5/6/99 1545 2818 1128 852 316 66% 5% 5/7/99 1548 2818 1125 847 319 66% 5% 5/10/99 1573 2803 1117 856 303 66% 5% spreedsheet version: Date,A,B,C,D,E,AB/A:E,%E 4/28/99,1406,2776,1167,903,374,63%,6%,, 4/29/99,1420,2839,1135,864,368,64%,6%,, 4/30/99,1469,2820,1153,862,354,64%,5%,, 5/3/99,1514,2799,1146,854,349,65%,5%,, 5/4/99,1533,2795,1136,869,343,65%,5%,, 5/5/99,1597,2818,1108,849,309,66%,5%,, 5/6/99,1545,2818,1128,852,316,66%,5%,, 5/7/99,1548,2818,1125,847,319,66%,5%,, 5/10/99,1573,2803,1117,856,303,66%,5%,, Robert - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: musicant@pacbell.net (Dan Musicant) Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] C&H: TMBS Date: 10 May 1999 12:42:46 GMT On Sun, 9 May 1999 19:13:49 -0700 (PDT), you wrote: :An old friend that broke out a year or so ago and then=20 :broke down again is forming a pretty nice cup and handle. :Its financials are as good as they were a year ago. :Tom, are you holding this one? Seems I remember it was :on you list of holdings a while ago. check it out. :ciao, :rolatzi The base is very short, being less than a month, as I make out. EPS is holding strong at 99, but RS has slipped to 65. I see no reason to expect real strength from TMBS at this point, but then I have not been following it other than noticing the stock price from time to time. AFA "old friend" quotient, I can only think of WON's admonition to never fall in love with a stock. Dan :_________________________________________________________ :Do You Yahoo!? :Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com : : :- : - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Russell, Ron" Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] GIC B/O Date: 10 May 1999 09:13:11 -0400 "The Russell List" should not be confused with a pure CANSLIM list. There are similarities but there are differences too. In terms of RS and EPS rankings "Pure" CANSLIM is usually defined as greater than 80 in both cases. The parameters for my list are RS >= 85 and EPS >= 70. I also add volume and price constraints that are not necessarily true CANSLIM. This weeks list will be posted tonight. Mother's Day took precedence this weekend. Ron Ronald J. Russell, Jr. -----Original Message----- From: David S. Pinhasik [mailto:dsap@shani.net] Sent: Sunday, May 09, 1999 11:05 AM To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] GIC B/O Is it CANSLIM? I can't find it on the Russell list. David ----- Original Message ----- From: Connie Mack Rea To: Sent: Sunday, May 09, 1999 5:29 PM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] GIC B/O >Believe you're on to something, Peter. > >Nice looking chart. > >Connie Mack > > > > >Peter Newell wrote: > >> IBD has mentioned this one twice last week looks like a classic breakout to >> me. >> >> Peter >> >> - > > > > >- > - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] C&H: TMBS Date: 10 May 1999 20:01:08 -0400 Actually, Dan, the RS has been on the "rise" to now 70 today. It was far worse just a few weeks ago despite beating, once again, analyst's earnings forecasts as well as year ago earnings (up 93%). As I said, not a viable CANSLIM stock these days, but suits my "fundamentals, long hold" criteria. And doesn't hurt that the up/down ratio has also been slowing improving, now 1.3. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html -----Original Message----- On Sun, 9 May 1999 19:13:49 -0700 (PDT), you wrote: :An old friend that broke out a year or so ago and then :broke down again is forming a pretty nice cup and handle. :Its financials are as good as they were a year ago. :Tom, are you holding this one? Seems I remember it was :on you list of holdings a while ago. check it out. :ciao, :rolatzi The base is very short, being less than a month, as I make out. EPS is holding strong at 99, but RS has slipped to 65. I see no reason to expect real strength from TMBS at this point, but then I have not been following it other than noticing the stock price from time to time. AFA "old friend" quotient, I can only think of WON's admonition to never fall in love with a stock. Dan :_________________________________________________________ :Do You Yahoo!? :Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com : : :- : - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "James Adams" Subject: [CANSLIM] TXCC C&H Date: 10 May 1999 21:03:33 -0400 TXCC: Transwitch 77/96 A/A/B I've made some money on this one since Jan 1 and lost a little as well. It appears, to me at least, to be a classic c&h with the handle possibly ending today. MACD gave a weak buy on Friday which wasn't confirmed today, but the divergence is still positive. I'm in anticipation of a breakout soon, but who knows with the nasdaq being up then down......almost over a period of 15 mins. Any feedback would be greatly appreciated on this one. James Adams jadams@ntr.net jimadams@may-uky.campus.mci.net Maysville, KY USA - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: DS Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] TXCC C&H Date: 10 May 1999 22:05:03 -0500 James, I have been watching this one also. If M is accommodating, this one will likely be a good play. Volume is contracting but the last rally did not have convincing volume (nor price action). Therefore, I would require very heavy volume on the move through 50 to be a buyer. Good Trading, DSquires James Adams wrote: > > TXCC: Transwitch > 77/96 A/A/B > I've made some money on this one since Jan 1 and lost a little as well. It > appears, to me at least, to be a classic c&h with the handle possibly ending > today. MACD gave a weak buy on Friday which wasn't confirmed today, but the > divergence is still positive. > I'm in anticipation of a breakout soon, but who knows with the nasdaq being > up then down......almost over a period of 15 mins. > Any feedback would be greatly appreciated on this one. > > James Adams > jadams@ntr.net > jimadams@may-uky.campus.mci.net > Maysville, KY USA > > - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Oli Josefsson Subject: [CANSLIM] Acceleration Numbers Date: 11 May 1999 00:13:47 -0400 Greetings. I am wondering whether anybody out there has found a web site that shows quarterly EPS and Sales number increases in % terms. I often scan a lot of companies and it it too much work to fill in a spreadsheet for them all to figure out whether EPS and Sales growth are accelerating or deaccelerating. Do members not look at these (for the most part I have not, because of the inconvenience) or if you do, I am interested in hearing about if you can do it easily and for free. Thanks Oli. - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Barry Marx" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Acceleration Numbers Date: 11 May 1999 00:41:07 -0400 Stockmaster gives a nice table of EPS values from Baseline. It shows the yearly percent changes: http://www.stockmaster.com/wc/form/P1?template=sm/earnings&Symbol=EMC If you have an ETrade account, you can access the same table, but with the addition of EPS estimates for coming quarters. They have some additional charts as well, including one of revenue. - Barry -----Original Message----- :Greetings. :I am wondering whether anybody out there has found a web :site that shows quarterly EPS and Sales number increases :in % terms. I often scan a lot of companies and it :it too much work to fill in a spreadsheet for them all :to figure out whether EPS and Sales growth are accelerating or :deaccelerating. Do members not look at these :(for the most part I have not, because of the inconvenience) :or if you do, I am interested in hearing about if you can do it :easily and for free. :Thanks :Oli. : :- : : - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Acceleration Numbers Date: 11 May 1999 04:57:32 -0400 The Daily Graphs (paper and online) from IBD give eight qtrs of earnings and sales. The four most recent qtrs give the percentage year to year changes for both sales and earnings. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html -----Original Message----- Greetings. I am wondering whether anybody out there has found a web site that shows quarterly EPS and Sales number increases in % terms. I often scan a lot of companies and it it too much work to fill in a spreadsheet for them all to figure out whether EPS and Sales growth are accelerating or deaccelerating. Do members not look at these (for the most part I have not, because of the inconvenience) or if you do, I am interested in hearing about if you can do it easily and for free. Thanks Oli. - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: [CANSLIM] A trend? Date: 11 May 1999 07:39:34 -0400 Just in the past few days, I have had two NASDAQ listed foreign stocks on my watch list drop the "F" from their symbol, apparently by opening an office based in the USA. A little confusing, since they are still very much foreign cos. For those influenced or cautious in trading foreign stocks, be careful. If you have DGO and the stock is in the book, check the f4 screen as it lists the headquarters and phone nr for the co. For others, you can check the SEC site and review most any filing found on EDGAR. It will usually list the co address and where it does business if a mailing address. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Dave Wood" Subject: [CANSLIM] EPS Reports Date: 10 May 1999 22:07:33 -0400 Hi Everyone, Where does everybody get the quarterly and annual revenue and eps figures as each company reports? Is there a website which provides the same data as IBD's 'earnings page' ? I subscribe to QuotesPlus, but the fundamental data is updated only weekly. I received a renewal notice for my IBD subscription today, and realized that the only part of the paper I use now is the earnings page. Before I spend $200, I wanted to see if there was a website where I could get this data also. Thanks, Dave - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] EPS Reports Date: 11 May 1999 20:31:08 -0400 Hi Dave, I keep a portfolio on Yahoo, and regularly check there for any news releases on the stocks, including earnings releases. I also keep a full portfolio on Infobeat, which kinda regularly emails me with any news, tho usually a day late. I also use DGO, tho even more expensive than IBD, for a variety of reasons including the date they expect earnings to be released, so I can go hunting if necessary. If I get really desperate, or want more details, I go to the SEC site and use EDGAR. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html -----Original Message----- Hi Everyone, Where does everybody get the quarterly and annual revenue and eps figures as each company reports? Is there a website which provides the same data as IBD's 'earnings page' ? I subscribe to QuotesPlus, but the fundamental data is updated only weekly. I received a renewal notice for my IBD subscription today, and realized that the only part of the paper I use now is the earnings page. Before I spend $200, I wanted to see if there was a website where I could get this data also. Thanks, Dave - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Ronald J. Russell, Jr." Subject: [CANSLIM] Weekly Stock List - May 7, 1999 - Condensed Version Date: 11 May 1999 22:40:15 -0400 All, We jumped right back up to 174 this week. My apologies for the late delivery. Mother's Day won out over the weekend and I couldn't get to it last night. All data is as of the close on Friday, May 7, 1999. As a reminder, the selection criteria are: EPS > 69 RS > 84 GRS > 59 A/D = "A" or "B" CLOSE > 10.00 30 Day ADV > 75,000 Trade well, Ron Symbol EPS RS GRS ERG A/D Close 30 ADV ABCO 81 90 65 236 A $ 35.810 183,510 ABDR 97 92 80 269 A $ 78.250 137,210 ADBE 92 93 71 256 A $ 67.940 886,237 ADCT 96 90 95 281 A $ 45.130 2,086,053 ADIC 82 94 66 242 B $ 23.630 106,237 ADRX 77 97 79 253 B $ 86.750 135,657 ADVP 98 94 62 254 A $ 53.750 115,920 ADVS 97 88 90 275 A $ 56.810 104,757 AEOS 99 91 89 279 A $ 38.000 638,123 AGN 82 92 70 244 A $ 88.560 418,367 AGPH 73 92 81 246 A $ 58.750 442,197 AHAA 74 98 94 266 A $ 33.750 364,993 ALD 84 93 60 237 B $ 64.630 2,291,160 ALNT 83 88 83 254 A $ 42.380 178,190 ALTR 90 93 94 277 A $ 76.250 2,258,717 AMGN 94 92 81 267 A $ 63.630 5,476,350 ANF 99 94 89 282 A $ 91.190 571,683 ANN 77 95 89 261 B $ 49.380 414,970 AOL 77 99 99 275 A $ 118.190 28,139,628 ARMHY 80 97 94 271 A $ 32.130 93,573 ASTE 81 96 74 251 A $ 39.500 164,243 AT 81 86 83 250 A $ 64.560 664,977 ATI 92 90 92 274 A $ 93.250 2,773,260 AXP 89 88 89 266 A $ 134.690 1,699,903 BBBY 97 89 77 263 A $ 37.250 1,531,017 BBY 74 95 95 264 B $ 46.630 1,461,383 BEAM 77 99 98 274 A $ 15.440 2,161,613 BGEN 70 90 81 241 A $ 92.560 1,493,157 BGG 74 90 61 225 B $ 67.130 172,637 BID 77 93 77 247 A $ 41.630 343,250 BJ 88 90 80 258 B $ 28.130 273,890 BRCM 80 97 94 271 A $ 83.690 1,885,673 BSX 87 91 70 248 A $ 40.810 1,470,167 BVSN 77 97 71 245 B $ 48.000 1,050,337 BXM 98 85 81 264 A $ 30.380 401,590 CHCS 87 92 89 268 A $ 26.000 79,777 CHL 79 88 92 259 A $ 44.440 99,317 CLE 89 93 91 273 A $ 31.940 443,177 CLFY 97 86 71 254 B $ 22.630 415,773 CMGI 77 99 98 274 A $ 221.250 4,428,240 CMNT 74 98 93 265 B $ 18.880 615,793 COF 88 93 89 270 A $ 169.380 525,983 CPN 99 95 67 261 A $ 45.440 157,483 CPRT 95 90 80 265 B $ 18.000 136,447 CPWM 89 91 65 245 B $ 34.130 217,657 CREE 99 94 94 287 A $ 40.250 189,907 CSCO 97 92 93 282 A $ 108.500 13,443,188 CSN 81 90 83 254 A $ 21.630 456,437 CTV 77 92 88 257 B $ 25.560 470,167 CUBE 87 85 66 238 A $ 27.060 507,900 DG 93 86 80 259 A $ 36.380 755,947 DMMC 95 86 86 267 A $ 22.380 217,307 DSP 93 95 94 282 A $ 25.690 639,143 EFII 96 96 71 263 A $ 48.560 988,070 EMC 97 91 66 254 A $ 97.310 6,114,013 EUSA 96 93 83 272 A $ 40.000 191,047 EXPD 91 92 73 256 B $ 63.130 145,417 FDC 80 90 89 259 B $ 44.000 1,548,500 FDO 88 87 64 239 A $ 24.880 585,873 FISV 89 87 64 240 A $ 40.000 921,893 FLEX 97 95 92 284 A $ 46.560 732,840 FM 99 90 71 260 A $ 26.630 195,367 FNDTF 82 94 90 266 A $ 32.500 279,620 FON 75 93 96 264 B $ 110.500 1,190,647 FORE 71 95 93 259 B $ 33.810 7,263,466 GDT 86 86 70 242 A $ 53.880 1,428,193 GEOC 84 97 71 252 A $ 54.130 883,827 GIC 80 89 95 264 B $ 39.940 1,276,340 GICOF 99 94 96 289 A $ 14.500 91,027 GNSS 84 89 94 267 A $ 18.630 352,297 GPS 96 87 89 272 A $ 63.250 1,989,173 GUC 93 90 89 272 A $ 73.630 384,953 HAS 85 88 85 258 B $ 33.880 1,111,470 HDI 94 88 76 258 A $ 57.190 475,753 HET 73 88 87 248 A $ 23.690 691,323 HH 96 87 62 245 A $ 16.250 89,893 HON 82 86 68 236 B $ 104.000 775,557 HQ 83 85 97 265 A $ 35.190 241,140 IBI 87 95 89 271 A $ 52.750 458,390 IBM 92 92 78 262 A $ 217.250 5,733,306 INSS 99 90 64 253 A $ 38.940 371,552 IR 93 90 61 244 B $ 69.810 789,857 ISCA 90 87 72 249 A $ 47.880 87,343 JAKK 99 96 85 280 A $ 22.250 266,880 JBL 82 96 92 270 A $ 47.250 795,467 KMB 85 88 85 258 B $ 63.500 1,984,173 KSS 94 87 64 245 A $ 70.250 574,970 KSWS 77 99 93 269 A $ 42.250 307,480 LEVL 90 95 94 279 A $ 51.500 796,337 LIN 95 90 65 250 B $ 48.500 230,400 LLTC 80 90 94 264 A $ 55.500 1,556,747 LU 97 85 95 277 A $ 57.750 13,421,606 LXK 96 91 86 273 A $ 119.000 626,437 MAR 90 85 79 254 B $ 42.380 593,310 MARG 75 97 80 252 B $ 21.130 165,163 MCHP 90 90 66 246 A $ 44.310 743,817 MCRL 95 89 94 278 A $ 56.880 199,330 MEDI 77 92 81 250 B $ 55.130 1,079,780 MERQ 76 87 71 234 A $ 30.190 979,287 MFAC 97 86 80 263 A $ 30.940 169,083 MMCN 84 91 94 269 A $ 24.340 656,293 MNMD 98 94 70 262 A $ 57.630 223,933 MSFT 99 87 94 280 A $ 79.060 29,784,922 MTON 98 87 96 281 A $ 15.000 118,983 MTW 96 91 60 247 A $ 37.440 107,492 MXIM 81 90 94 265 A $ 57.000 1,625,917 MYG 91 89 84 264 A $ 71.880 584,080 NAV 95 95 82 272 A $ 54.630 678,677 NDB 81 99 97 277 B $ 52.940 2,170,430 NEON 77 94 71 242 A $ 41.380 1,629,733 NOK 97 93 95 285 A $ 75.130 2,655,860 NOVL 77 94 93 264 B $ 23.500 4,523,353 NSOL 84 96 97 277 A $ 62.250 2,864,450 NTAP 99 93 66 258 A $ 47.000 990,070 NTBK 77 99 99 275 A $ 165.000 1,855,907 OCLI 89 99 81 269 B $ 61.750 135,590 OSSI 91 89 71 251 A $ 34.380 750,117 OSTE 72 96 70 238 A $ 37.440 224,670 PCLE 71 93 60 224 A $ 56.750 220,583 PEGS 73 92 80 245 A $ 38.130 259,813 PKX 90 94 77 261 B $ 26.310 659,317 PLCE 99 99 89 287 A $ 46.000 389,570 PLCM 77 89 95 261 A $ 25.880 818,037 POS 94 93 75 262 A $ 86.000 118,560 POWI 80 98 92 270 A $ 45.000 278,460 PRGX 98 86 80 264 A $ 37.940 193,947 PROX 98 97 92 287 B $ 39.000 354,193 PVN 98 97 89 284 A $ 124.250 891,827 QCOM 97 99 95 291 B $ 216.250 4,252,080 QLGC 99 97 94 290 A $ 90.060 404,180 QRSI 94 91 64 249 A $ 59.560 80,393 RACN 75 86 85 246 A $ 15.750 106,073 RFMD 82 99 88 269 A $ 53.130 641,510 SAH 93 85 77 255 A $ 14.810 388,533 SANM 91 90 92 273 A $ 70.250 1,212,543 SAPE 87 85 71 243 A $ 66.880 294,023 SBUX 96 91 71 258 A $ 34.630 1,618,243 SCAI 70 97 90 257 B $ 54.000 388,677 SCH 97 98 97 292 A $ 103.810 4,359,220 SDLI 95 99 94 288 A $ 110.630 334,787 SEBL 99 85 71 255 A $ 40.470 1,843,960 SFP 99 97 84 280 A $ 38.880 99,363 SLR 96 94 88 278 A $ 50.630 1,238,567 SONC 91 86 71 248 A $ 27.750 108,623 SORC 72 90 80 242 A $ 10.750 105,760 SRT 98 94 80 272 A $ 19.940 151,510 SUNW 94 96 78 268 A $ 58.060 15,404,171 SWC 77 89 62 228 A $ 29.130 237,163 SWS 92 97 97 286 A $ 53.560 519,667 T 79 86 96 261 B $ 60.440 15,612,943 TAGS 97 95 67 259 A $ 45.000 87,743 TCAT 85 92 96 273 A $ 49.500 337,443 TEX 75 89 74 238 A $ 34.310 209,480 TIF 90 95 91 276 A $ 86.750 229,000 TLAB 99 92 95 286 A $ 109.060 2,687,496 TMPW 99 94 75 268 B $ 59.000 668,003 TRK 87 93 72 252 B $ 39.630 134,820 TVGIA 80 96 91 267 B $ 43.130 260,107 TXCC 77 96 94 267 A $ 47.000 292,777 TYC 97 87 60 244 A $ 84.380 5,334,863 UNPH 97 97 95 289 A $ 124.500 943,533 URBN 80 90 77 247 A $ 20.880 134,463 UVN 82 91 91 264 B $ 54.630 397,847 VISX 99 99 98 296 A $ 121.750 1,036,710 VRTS 99 85 71 255 A $ 70.880 924,550 VTSS 97 85 94 276 A $ 48.250 1,727,057 WAT 98 89 66 253 A $ 99.750 138,877 WCOM 86 91 96 273 B $ 87.130 13,781,178 WIZTF 94 85 71 250 A $ 18.440 80,690 WMT 88 86 80 254 A $ 44.750 9,296,996 WTSLA 92 93 89 274 A $ 45.310 140,820 XLNX 89 94 94 277 A $ 46.380 3,727,167 YHOO 77 98 99 274 A $ 147.440 8,579,414 ZQK 96 95 67 258 A $ 26.380 183,267 - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Agora Outlook" Subject: [CANSLIM] Robert Rubin Resigns Date: 12 May 1999 07:54:52 -0700 A release that was put out after the open that Robert Rubin was going to resign took the Dow and S&P 500 off -200.00 and -21.00 points in about 3 minutes. After the initial shock the market has stabilized at lower levels. Currently the Dow is off about -50.00 points, S&P 500 -3.00 points. The Nasdaq Composite is actually up +10.00 points. Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin is to resign from his post and President Clinton will propose his current deputy, Lawrence Summers, as his successor. Clinton is to nominate Stuart Eizenstadt as deputy treasury secretary. Robert Rubin has been the Treasury Secretary since the beginning of 1995 and is widely credited with boosting the stock and bond markets confidence in the Clinton administration's economic policies. Bond prices also sank on the release but have come back to being up +12/32nds. The question now is what the market will do as this news really settles in! Will this be the start of a correction or will the market return to rally mode? The close today may be the key! Ken - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Mypiason3@aol.com Subject: [CANSLIM] ABDR A CUP/HANDLE Date: 12 May 1999 16:46:16 EDT Hello I am new to the group. I noticed Ron's list and seen ABDR has it broke out a cup and handle? thanks - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Mypiason3@aol.com Subject: [CANSLIM] adrx new high Date: 12 May 1999 20:22:50 EDT adrx advanced to a new high but closed sligjtly below. It looks like a cup/ handle. Volume was average though. Could this be the beginning of an advance - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Robert Rubin Resigns Date: 12 May 1999 23:23:35 -0400 The change in SecTreas, esp with the Deputy (who thinks along the same lines as Rubin) will have little change expect possibly with relations with Congress. Rubin is/was a great fence mender. Probably the best quote I read came from a fellow economist and went something like "Summers can be pretty arrogant at times. Congress doesn't like someone as arrogant as they are". And altho Rubin wanted to return to private life, he is still considered a viable candidate for Chairman of the Fed Reserve if Mr. G retires when his term ends June 2000 (he wants a fourth term, but who knows at his age). Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html -----Original Message----- A release that was put out after the open that Robert Rubin was going to resign took the Dow and S&P 500 off -200.00 and -21.00 points in about 3 minutes. After the initial shock the market has stabilized at lower levels. Currently the Dow is off about -50.00 points, S&P 500 -3.00 points. The Nasdaq Composite is actually up +10.00 points. Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin is to resign from his post and President Clinton will propose his current deputy, Lawrence Summers, as his successor. Clinton is to nominate Stuart Eizenstadt as deputy treasury secretary. Robert Rubin has been the Treasury Secretary since the beginning of 1995 and is widely credited with boosting the stock and bond markets confidence in the Clinton administration's economic policies. Bond prices also sank on the release but have come back to being up +12/32nds. The question now is what the market will do as this news really settles in! Will this be the start of a correction or will the market return to rally mode? The close today may be the key! Ken - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Patrick Wahl" Subject: [CANSLIM] misc Date: 12 May 1999 22:08:08 -0800 Good interview in Barrons this week with a guy who manages a tech fund that was up 86% last year, so I think he knows what he is doing. He talked about what sort of business he looks for - something that has a potential market in the billions if not hundreds of billions. Also pointed out that as markets get larger, they are dominated by fewer and fewer companies, not more (Intel in Microprocessors, MSFT in Operating systems, etc). His picks aren't exactly new ideas, but he likes AOL, INTC, and EBAY. Two stocks he panned are LRCX and MSPG. - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Patrick Wahl" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] ABDR A CUP/HANDLE Date: 12 May 1999 22:08:08 -0800 Date sent: Wed, 12 May 1999 16:46:16 EDT > I noticed Ron's list and seen ABDR has it broke out a cup and handle? If it is, it is very short and pretty deep, I wouldn't think it was a very reliable after the large gain ABDR has already had. - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] ABDR A CUP/HANDLE Date: 13 May 1999 00:09:15 -0400 Price move up on suspiciously low volume, be careful. The volume would prevent it being well characterized as a "breakout". Chartwise, I don't see it as a c&h, too short, too steep both ways. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html -----Original Message----- Hello I am new to the group. I noticed Ron's list and seen ABDR has it broke out a cup and handle? thanks - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Oli Josefsson Subject: [CANSLIM] CREE Breakout Date: 13 May 1999 15:08:14 -0400 CREE is breaking out of what I would consider close to a picture perfect cup and handle, with the handle gradually heading lower until today. Volume up more than 50% and price up 7%. CANSLIM stats er excellent: CREE 99 97 A A B and sponsorship is C. CREE is also on my list of surrogates (as per DB - where is he these days anyway) for the semiconductor manufacturers. Oli. - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "David Barash" Subject: [CANSLIM] FDS Date: 13 May 1999 23:58:12 -0400 FDS looks like a perfect cup and handle. Any views from the group? EPS 98 RS 93. Is it a CANSLIM? David Barash dbarash@massmed.org - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Patrick Wahl" Subject: [CANSLIM] psun Date: 13 May 1999 22:14:43 -0800 Noticed that Pacific Sunwear (PSUN) is forming a constructive chart pattern, although the cup is deeper than it should be. The numbers in the IBD were all good, with 3 A's in the GRS, A/D, and Sales etc. columns. They reported earning this week, don't have the numbers, but pretty good. - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Marc Laniado" Subject: [CANSLIM] Breakout Date: 14 May 1999 07:06:25 +0100 Hi guy's, take a look at SANM which broke out Marc E Laniado marclaniado@msn.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: SANM (was Re: [CANSLIM] Breakout) Date: 14 May 1999 06:50:53 -0400 Hi Marc, One thing I noticed is that sales are growing much faster than earnings/share. There may have been a stock split that would account for this, but I would want to be able to answer this before buying. Example: for the current qtr (3rd) last year, they earned 40 cents on 114 mil in sales. For the just ended Q2 this year, they earned 47 cents on 281 mil in sales. Year to year growth still respectable, however you may want to check the actual dollar amount of sales (as opposed to per share amounts) and verify that the earnings efficiency hasn't deteriorated. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html -----Original Message----- Hi guy's, take a look at SANM which broke out Marc E Laniado marclaniado@msn.com - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] FDS Date: 14 May 1999 07:03:20 -0400 Hi David, I agree, this one looks good. I also agree that, having gone from around 18 last Oct to a recent high of 54, the cup is about twice as deep as I would prefer. However, it has completely recovered from that correction/profit taking, and is forming a nice handle with volume appropriately drying up. Funds own more (25%) than I would prefer, but that is of an already reduced float (9.2 mil shares) as management still is reported owned 39% of the total issue. Well worth watching for a breakout, good find. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html -----Original Message----- FDS looks like a perfect cup and handle. Any views from the group? EPS 98 RS 93. Is it a CANSLIM? David Barash dbarash@massmed.org - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: musicant@pacbell.net (Dan Musicant) Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] psun + "Price Target"? Date: 14 May 1999 13:00:26 GMT On Thu, 13 May 1999 22:14:43 -0800, you wrote: :Noticed that Pacific Sunwear (PSUN) is forming a constructive=20 :chart pattern, although the cup is deeper than it should be. The=20 :numbers in the IBD were all good, with 3 A's in the GRS, A/D, and=20 :Sales etc. columns. They reported earning this week, don't have=20 :the numbers, but pretty good. : Depends what you call the cup. If you mean that dip around the end of 1998, it looks like the company almost went under. :) Really, that looks scary. However, it does look promising now. I just looked at the earnings news and it's good. http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990512/bjh.html Another question: An analyst has put a "price target" on this stock at $50/share. I've seen this type of info bandied about for some time, and I've never seen a definition of what a price target is. Obviously, saying the xyz stock at $57/share is price targeted at $80 means little if you do not have a time frame. Is there an implicit end of year or one year time frame when such *predictions* are made?=20 Dan - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Peter Newell" Subject: [CANSLIM] ETH B/O Date: 14 May 1999 09:16:11 -0700 Ethan Allen Broke out yesterday its EPS 90 RS 84 GS 65 and moving up -----Original Message----- On Thu, 13 May 1999 22:14:43 -0800, you wrote: :Noticed that Pacific Sunwear (PSUN) is forming a constructive :chart pattern, although the cup is deeper than it should be. The :numbers in the IBD were all good, with 3 A's in the GRS, A/D, and :Sales etc. columns. They reported earning this week, don't have :the numbers, but pretty good. : Depends what you call the cup. If you mean that dip around the end of 1998, it looks like the company almost went under. :) Really, that looks scary. However, it does look promising now. I just looked at the earnings news and it's good. http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990512/bjh.html Another question: An analyst has put a "price target" on this stock at $50/share. I've seen this type of info bandied about for some time, and I've never seen a definition of what a price target is. Obviously, saying the xyz stock at $57/share is price targeted at $80 means little if you do not have a time frame. Is there an implicit end of year or one year time frame when such *predictions* are made? Dan - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: musicant@pacbell.net (Dan Musicant) Subject: [CANSLIM] "Price Target"? Date: 14 May 1999 13:55:05 GMT Question: An analyst has put a "price target" on PSUN at $50/share. I've seen this type of info bandied about for some time, and I've never seen a definition of what a price target is. Obviously, saying the xyz stock at $57/share is price targeted at $80 means little if you do not have a time frame. Is there an implicit end of year or one year time frame when such *predictions* are made?=20 Dan - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] "Price Target"? Date: 14 May 1999 19:16:47 -0400 Hi Dan, Most analyst's set their price target on what they "think" the stock will be "worth" in one year from the forecast. This, of course, assumes a lot, ranging from how accurate they are in the company's future sales and earnings to how "M" behaves. Since such analyst's announcements alone can often create buying pressure that may eat up 20% or more of the price gain suggested for a year's time, I would be leary of allowing such announcements to bear any weight at all in a buy/sell/hold decision making process. It's one of the many reasons I am so critical of those analysts that simply cut their "rating" on a stock when it reaches their "target" "prematurely" without going back and reassessing their assumptions made at the time in light of subsequent events, earnings results, "M", etc. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html -----Original Message----- Question: An analyst has put a "price target" on PSUN at $50/share. I've seen this type of info bandied about for some time, and I've never seen a definition of what a price target is. Obviously, saying the xyz stock at $57/share is price targeted at $80 means little if you do not have a time frame. Is there an implicit end of year or one year time frame when such *predictions* are made? Dan - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: [CANSLIM] Totally off topic Date: 14 May 1999 21:44:35 -0400 Looking for any members in Vietnam, or at least in the Far East Asia region. Trying to research a small piece of my role in the Vietnam war, serving onboard a Coast Guard cutter subsequently turned over to the Rep of Vietnam Navy. Any specific help or info appreciated, or any suggestions on how to research it on the net appreciated at stkguru@netside.net. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com (Jeff Salisbury) Subject: [CANSLIM] Changing your canslim subscription Date: 15 May 1999 08:00:02 -0600 This is a monthly posting to the CANLSLIM group. Frequently, people sign up for the canslim list and then are overwhelmed by the volume of the email. There are two remedies for this problem: 1) You can leave our group, or 2) you can switch to the digest version which "conglomerates" many canslim messages into one large message. To change your configuration, email a message to: majordomo@xmission.com The remove yourself from the canslim list, write in the body of the email: unsubscribe canslim To add yourself to the digest version of the canslim list, write in the body of the email: subscribe canslim-digest For general help with majordomo commands, write in the body of the email: help If you need further clarification, write me directly at: canslim-owner@lists.xmission.com Best Regards, Jeff Salisbury - CANSLIM list admin / owner - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Patrick Wahl" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] psun + "Price Target"? Date: 15 May 1999 10:36:47 -0800 > Depends what you call the cup. If you mean that dip around the end of > 1998, it looks like the company almost went under. :) > > Really, that looks scary. However, it does look promising now. I just > looked at the earnings news and it's good. I'm referring to the period from July to May 1999, not just the dip in December. However, as I point out to people, a cup should only be about 20-30% off of the old high at the bottom, so I should apply the same rule here, and this is down about 75% from the high to the bottom, so really doesn't qualify as a sound cup pattern. - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Patrick Wahl" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] CREE Breakout Date: 15 May 1999 10:36:47 -0800 Date sent: Thu, 13 May 1999 15:08:14 -0400 > > CREE is breaking out of what I would consider close to a picture perfect > cup and handle, with the handle gradually heading lower until today. > Volume up more than 50% and price up 7%. CANSLIM stats er excellent: > CREE 99 97 A A B and sponsorship is C. > CREE is also on my list of surrogates (as per DB - where > is he these days anyway) for the semiconductor manufacturers. I don't think this quite qualifies as a C&H, I think the H part drifted down too far. I think the breakout from the handle should put you pretty near new high territory, relative to the right side of the cup anyway, and CREE is still 5 points or so below the recent highs, even after the spike up on Thursday. - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Patrick Wahl" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] "Price Target"? Date: 15 May 1999 10:36:47 -0800 > Question: An analyst has put a "price target" on PSUN at > $50/share. I've seen this type of info bandied about for some time, and > I've never seen a definition of what a price target is. Obviously, > saying the xyz stock at $57/share is price targeted at $80 means little > if you do not have a time frame. Is there an implicit end of year or one > year time frame when such *predictions* are made? Just to add one thing to what Tom said - I usually try to ignore these targets. I can remember some of the internet stocks hitting 12 month price targets in about 3 weeks, and then everyone upping their targets again, so I think watching the market is the best way to figure out where a stock is heading. Ian Woodward has some good thoughts on making your own price targets, and if you read Jubak, he also discusses somewhere or other how he sets targets. - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: musicant@pacbell.net (Dan Musicant) Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] "Price Target"? Date: 15 May 1999 17:30:26 GMT On Sat, 15 May 1999 10:36:47 -0800, you wrote: :From: musicant@pacbell.net (Dan Musicant) :To: canslim@lists.xmission.com : :> Question: An analyst has put a "price target" on PSUN at :> $50/share. I've seen this type of info bandied about for some time, = and :> I've never seen a definition of what a price target is. Obviously, :> saying the xyz stock at $57/share is price targeted at $80 means = little :> if you do not have a time frame. Is there an implicit end of year or = one :> year time frame when such *predictions* are made?=20 : :Just to add one thing to what Tom said - I usually try to ignore=20 :these targets. I can remember some of the internet stocks hitting=20 :12 month price targets in about 3 weeks, and then everyone upping=20 :their targets again, so I think watching the market is the best way=20 :to figure out where a stock is heading. Ian Woodward has some=20 :good thoughts on making your own price targets, and if you read=20 :Jubak, he also discusses somewhere or other how he sets targets. I'm not too concerned with targets. However, I have noted that stock movements are often greatly affected by influential people announcing price targets (often the price jumps immediately), and I wanted to know what these are *supposed* to mean. Tom indicates that it usually is a one year projection, FWIW. Obviously, analysts are going to be conservative in sticking their necks out with price targets.=20 Dan - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: [CANSLIM] A few to mention Date: 16 May 1999 17:48:02 -0400 Did a rapid scroll thru the DGO list of stocks at/near new highs, and here's my margin comments: VISX - perfect nrs, just like NITE, 99/99/A/A SFP - basing SDLI - LLUR TWRI - at a breakout point ALTR - near breakout TQNT - basing UTX - resuming LLUR?? SSD - base ASTE - nice 4 week base Disclaimer - all are beyond my price budget, so the most I may do on any is try some options. Just noticed them scrolling thru the entire list of 181 CS candidates. I'm sure there were others that my personal bias ignored. Did notice that the trailing PEs are consistently higher on this list, which is a good sign for me. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Connie Mack Rea Subject: [CANSLIM] Cable modem [fast access through TV cable] [Connie Mack] Date: 16 May 1999 18:18:33 -0400 Several members have asked me if I have a cable modem. I don't, but only because my cable company is a bit backward. Here is an excerpt from one of the sites below that makes you want to move to a cable modem: In addition to speed, cable modems offer another key benefit: constant connectivity. Becuase cable modems use connectionless technology, much like in an office LAN, a subscriber's PC is always online with the network. That means there's no need to dial-in to begin a session, so users do not have to worry aboutr receiving busy signals. Additionally, going online does not tie up their telephone line. Try these sites: http://www.godset.dk/cablemodem/cable_modem.htm http://www.cabledatacomnews.com/cmic/cmic1.html http://rpcp.mit.edu/~gingold/cable/#Manufacturers Connie Mack - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: randy cornelison Subject: [CANSLIM] worden notes/tc200 & pitbull investor Date: 16 May 1999 17:45:09 -0500 Has anyone here on the canslim list had any experience with the worden notes subscription or the pitbull investor? Worth the money? Thanks Randy randyc@tsixroads.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: FBNAirPlt@aol.com Subject: [CANSLIM] Acc/Dis Numbers Date: 16 May 1999 23:00:59 EDT Here are the latest Acc/Dis Numbers: Date A B C D E AB/A:E %E 4/26/99 1314 2736 1188 950 399 61% 6% 4/27/99 1349 2761 1190 929 376 62% 6% 4/28/99 1406 2776 1167 903 374 63% 6% 4/29/99 1420 2839 1135 864 368 64% 6% 4/30/99 1469 2820 1153 862 354 64% 5% 5/3/99 1514 2799 1146 854 349 65% 5% 5/4/99 1533 2795 1136 869 343 65% 5% 5/5/99 1597 2818 1108 849 309 66% 5% 5/6/99 1545 2818 1128 852 316 66% 5% 5/7/99 1548 2818 1125 847 319 66% 5% 5/10/99 1573 2803 1117 856 303 66% 5% 5/11/99 1603 2780 1126 849 303 66% 5% 5/12/99 1639 2806 1130 792 304 67% 5% 5/13/99 1701 2814 1067 778 311 68% 5% 5/14/99 1676 2856 1067 766 308 68% 5% 5/17/99 1715 2889 1044 762 289 69% 4% Spreedsheet version: Date,A,B,C,D,E,AB/A:E,%E 5/3/99,1514,2799,1146,854,349,65%,5%,, 5/4/99,1533,2795,1136,869,343,65%,5%,, 5/5/99,1597,2818,1108,849,309,66%,5%,, 5/6/99,1545,2818,1128,852,316,66%,5%,, 5/7/99,1548,2818,1125,847,319,66%,5%,, 5/10/99,1573,2803,1117,856,303,66%,5%,, 5/11/99,1603,2780,1126,849,303,66%,5%,, 5/12/99,1639,2806,1130,792,304,67%,5% 5/13/99,1701,2814,1067,778,311,68%,5% 5/14/99,1676,2856,1067,766,308,68%,5% 5/17/99,1715,2889,1044,762,289,69%,4% Robert - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Peter Newell" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] worden notes/tc200 & pitbull investor Date: 17 May 1999 09:24:51 -0700 I just got the latest update to TC2000, which is free by the way and its pretty nice, you can simulate RS and scan for breakouts and high volume with your watch list. I'd highly recommend trying it out its at www.tc2000.com and they gave me a free week of data. I also like qp2 at www.qp2.com. Peter Newell -----Original Message----- >Has anyone here on the canslim list had any experience with the worden >notes subscription or the pitbull investor? Worth the money? >Thanks Randy >randyc@tsixroads.com > > >- > > - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Robert Gammon" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Cable modem [fast access through TV cable] [Connie Mack] Date: 17 May 1999 08:54:04 -0500 (CDT) I see this issue in a different light. Having the computer constantly on the net is NOT something that I want. Presumably, with a cable modem and with an external ADSL modem, I can turn them off. With them off, I can boot the computer with the drivers disabled and be free of any network traffic. When I want to get on the net, I turn the modem on, and re-boot the computer with the drivers enabled. Some of us regard this in the same light as a cell phone. Do we leave it on standby all the time, or do we turn it off when we have no interest in being bothered? Robert On Sun, 16 May 1999 18:18:33 -0400, Connie Mack Rea wrote: >Several members have asked me if I have a cable modem. I don't, but >only because my cable company is a bit backward. > >Here is an excerpt from one of the sites below that makes you want to >move to a cable modem: > > > In addition to speed, cable modems offer another key benefit: >constant > connectivity. Becuase cable modems use connectionless >technology, > much like in an office LAN, a subscriber's PC is always online >with the > network. That means there's no need to dial-in to begin a >session, so > users do not have to worry aboutr receiving busy signals. >Additionally, > going online does not tie up their telephone line. > >Try these sites: > > http://www.godset.dk/cablemodem/cable_modem.htm > > http://www.cabledatacomnews.com/cmic/cmic1.html > > http://rpcp.mit.edu/~gingold/cable/#Manufacturers > >Connie Mack > > >- > > - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Peter Newell" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Cable modem [fast access through TV cable] [Connie Mack] Date: 17 May 1999 09:59:25 -0700 I have an adsl and absolutely love not connecting and leave it on all the time. Peter Newell - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Connie Mack Rea Subject: [CANSLIM] Cable modem, ADSL, and VDSL. Date: 17 May 1999 10:40:11 -0400 Most of the disadvantages of ADSL will be corrected with VDSL. To look at both technologies, look at these sites: http://www.adsl.com/adsl_forum.html http://www.cs.tut.fi/tlt/stuff/adsl/node6.html http://www.adsl.com/contrib/ http://www.broadcom.com/xdsl.html Connie Mack - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: musicant@pacbell.net (Dan Musicant) Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Cable modem [fast access through TV cable] [Connie Mack] Date: 17 May 1999 16:56:17 GMT On Mon, 17 May 1999 09:59:25 -0700, you wrote: :I have an adsl and absolutely love not connecting and leave it on all = the :time. : :Peter Newell : Yes, this is one of the primary benefits...not having to dial your ISP and dealing with the delays, screeching sounds and sometimes frequent dropped connections and other maladies. Not that my ADSL has been a vacation in the Bahamas...far from it. But I think that after about 5 weeks, I finally have all the bugs out of my installation. Now I just have to put up with the server problems my provider sometimes has, but that's the online world. Still, some providers, whether it's ISP's, cable providers or DSL providers do a lot better than others in terms of consistency, email up, net access up regularly, etc. Dan - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Chris Peek" Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] Cable modem [fast access through TV cable] [Connie Mack] Date: 17 May 1999 13:46:42 -0400 Can those that have ADSL service(especially in the Tampa, FL area) contact me directly at: cpeek@ix.netcom.com I have a few questions regarding ISP's and who is having good luck with which ones. Sorry for the bandwidth but I have no other way to contact these individuals directly. Thanks, Chris Peek > -----Original Message----- > From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com > [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of Dan Musicant > Sent: Monday, May 17, 1999 12:56 PM > To: canslim@lists.xmission.com > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Cable modem [fast access through TV cable] > [Connie Mack] > > > On Mon, 17 May 1999 09:59:25 -0700, you wrote: > > :I have an adsl and absolutely love not connecting and leave it on all the > :time. > : > :Peter Newell > : > Yes, this is one of the primary benefits...not having to dial your ISP > and dealing with the delays, screeching sounds and sometimes frequent > dropped connections and other maladies. Not that my ADSL has been a > vacation in the Bahamas...far from it. But I think that after about 5 > weeks, I finally have all the bugs out of my installation. Now I just > have to put up with the server problems my provider sometimes has, but > that's the online world. Still, some providers, whether it's ISP's, > cable providers or DSL providers do a lot better than others in terms of > consistency, email up, net access up regularly, etc. > > Dan > > > - > > - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Bruce Perry Subject: [CANSLIM] DSP Date: 17 May 1999 12:53:06 -0700 Hello. I am new to investing and new to this list. I have been taking IBD for a few weeks and attempting to use CANSLIM techniques to identify stocks for my watch list. One stock I've had my eye on is DSP Communications. Just broke through its 52-week high of $20 and looks like it's hanging out at $25, which was a previous high from more than a year ago. Current year news looks good to me. A couple of software license agreements with cell phone manufactuerers as well as numerous chip sets for wireless commo. I also read somewhere that they have a chip set designed to filter directed conversation from high noise environments. Good for manufacturing operations and military command and control type of environments, if such markets develop. The % volume change is down, but the stock is still under heavy accumulation. Does anybody have any thoughts on this one? - Bruce - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Jerry Hickman Subject: [CANSLIM] Daily Quotes Date: 17 May 1999 09:38:10 -0400 Hi members, I wonder if anyone on this list uses or did use Prodigy and its Quote Track to get daily stock quotes? I do, using ProDownLoader--automated to get currently >550 quotes while I sleep. The problem is Prodigy will no longer supply this service after October 1. If I want to continue to operate as I have in the past, I will need to find another source. So far I have not found any that will allow for unattended downloads. This is handy for vacations, etc. Any ideas anyone?? Jerry Hickman - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Connie Mack Rea Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] DSP Date: 17 May 1999 19:09:16 -0400 Welcome to our group, Bruce. I am the day trader/trader in the group, and therefore do not follow Canslim. From a trader's point of view, DSP looks to have a bit more downside correcting, no lower than 23 or so, which is about a half of the retracement of the run from from 15 to 28. It is sitting on its 25-day EMA and would be nice if it honored this level. And the 3/7/10 EMA has bunched up. Looks like there a 50-50 chance of a bit more correction and then a return to the uptrend Think you'll like the group. There are several real knowledgeable Canslim investors. They like to have their brains picked. Connie Mack Bruce Perry wrote: > Hello. > > I am new to investing and new to this list. I have been taking IBD for a few weeks and attempting to use CANSLIM techniques to identify stocks for my watch list. > > One stock I've had my eye on is DSP Communications. > > Just broke through its 52-week high of $20 and looks like it's hanging out at $25, which was a previous high from more than a year ago. > > Current year news looks good to me. A couple of software license agreements with cell phone manufactuerers as well as numerous chip sets for wireless commo. I also read somewhere that they have a chip set designed to filter directed conversation from high noise environments. Good for manufacturing operations and military command and control type of environments, if such markets develop. > > The % volume change is down, but the stock is still under heavy accumulation. > > Does anybody have any thoughts on this one? > > - Bruce > > - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: [CANSLIM] Another boring quote on internet business activity Date: 17 May 1999 22:21:25 -0400 This one from Infobeat: Internet companies are putting investment banking on steroids as the number of Web deals struck in the first month of this year nearly doubled all of last year's ".com" activity. In January, 11 Web properties were purchased for just over $11.5 billion, or more than double the $6 billion spent in the entire year of 1998, according to a new study by Internet consulting firm New Media Resources. The study shows that there were 45 Web M&A transactions totaling $12.9 billion in the first quarter of this year vs. $250 million in the first quarter of 1998 Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] DSP Date: 17 May 1999 22:35:27 -0400 And another welcome to the group, Bruce. Connie's focus is purely, or nearly so, on technical analysis and momentum, while mine is mostly pure CANSLIM. For a newcomer to CANSLIM, you picked a pretty good one. Its CS elements are quite good, 94/93/A/A/GRS 95. The chart shows a basing pattern after a good rise, holding onto most of the gains despite a sharp decline in volume. Because of the lack of any other nearby support, I wouldn't try to anticipate the breakout, rather watch it closely for a sharp increase in volume (1.5X ADV or better) and try to catch it before it moves the price more than 8-10%. If I did end up owning it, I would also use a tight stop, probably around 25.125 to no lower than 24.875, at least until I had profits of 15% or more. The biggest criticism I have of this one is the lack of earnings efficiencies. For the past three quarters, sales are rising much faster than are earnings. In the latest qtr, earnings on a year over year basis only rose 3 cents (19%) while sales gained $13.8 million (55%). This is the worst, and most dramatic, comparison of the past three qtrs. I also note that the earnings forecast for 1999 is only up 11%, well under its historic earnings growth of 111%. For 2000, its not much better, up 20%. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html -----Original Message----- Welcome to our group, Bruce. I am the day trader/trader in the group, and therefore do not follow Canslim. From a trader's point of view, DSP looks to have a bit more downside correcting, no lower than 23 or so, which is about a half of the retracement of the run from from 15 to 28. It is sitting on its 25-day EMA and would be nice if it honored this level. And the 3/7/10 EMA has bunched up. Looks like there a 50-50 chance of a bit more correction and then a return to the uptrend Think you'll like the group. There are several real knowledgeable Canslim investors. They like to have their brains picked. Connie Mack Bruce Perry wrote: > Hello. > > I am new to investing and new to this list. I have been taking IBD for a few weeks and attempting to use CANSLIM techniques to identify stocks for my watch list. > > One stock I've had my eye on is DSP Communications. > > Just broke through its 52-week high of $20 and looks like it's hanging out at $25, which was a previous high from more than a year ago. > > Current year news looks good to me. A couple of software license agreements with cell phone manufactuerers as well as numerous chip sets for wireless commo. I also read somewhere that they have a chip set designed to filter directed conversation from high noise environments. Good for manufacturing operations and military command and control type of environments, if such markets develop. > > The % volume change is down, but the stock is still under heavy accumulation. > > Does anybody have any thoughts on this one? > > - Bruce > > - - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: mckeen@ix.netcom.com Subject: [CANSLIM] DSP Date: 18 May 1999 06:28:09 -0500 (CDT) Bruce, The CANSLIM criteria look good on this one. Funds 14%, Banks 5%, Mgmt 12% (a bit low here). 93 94 AAA. Great numbers. Basing now with low volume. I don't understand why their earnings stab is 99 with a growth rate at +111%. Will someone explain this? This is a watch list candidate for me. Thanks for pointing it out, Bruce. Mary - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: [CANSLIM] FOMC meeting today Date: 18 May 1999 07:37:55 -0400 Today, the Feds meet once again to consider the economy. They have essentially three options: raise rates; do nothing; change the bias towards tightening and enacting a future rate hike. A rate hike is neither a viable option nor justified, a shift in bias is however a more likely and expected outcome. If so, the key may well be whether they make an immediate announcement following the meeting, or wait for the news to be made official when the minutes are released in six weeks. Personally, I think the chances between do nothing and a bias shift are about equal. While several recent reports have suggested that inflation may be starting to be a problem, most recently Friday's CPI report, it takes more than this to set a trend. And the fear of inflation in the face of strong employment and above trend economic growth has been around for quite a while, without yet becoming reality. If the Feds do shift the bias, and also immediately announce such a move, I would expect something of a knee jerk reaction by the mkts as their worst fears are confirmed. However, this could also be the catylst that stabilizes the mkt, showing that Mr. G is still in control and paying attention to the US economy, not just the world economy. It would also show that the Feds are ready and willing to act to protect the US economy, even at some collateral damage to other's nations attempts to climb out of their economic and currency exchange problems. Japan has already signaled that they are not concerned by a strengthening US dollar, which helps their efforts to export their way out of recession. A few months ago, they showed they were comfortable with the dollar/yen in the 115-120 range. More currently, they are showing comfort with this range in the 120-125 range, possibly in an attempt to resist pressure for another supplemental govt budget (read this as a govt infusion/bailout). Despite substantial recovery in the Nikkei, there has yet to be substantial steps taken for recovery, and some estimates suggest their economy will continue to shrink for several more quarters even now. I would be far more concerned by a bias shift that goes unannounced, as it not only would leave the mkts unsettled, but would also suggest a higher concern by the Feds than I now perceive. I do not think that the recent retirement announcement by SecTreas Rubin will have any affect, as his Deputy Summers seems compatible with positions and past actions of Rubin. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "David S. Pinhasik" Subject: [CANSLIM] guc Date: 18 May 1999 15:46:03 +0300 Can someone comment on GUC? All I know is EPS 93 RS 88 and that volume is extremely dried up. On May 27 a court will decide if LMVHA will be allowed to takeover or not. David Not only do I not know what's going on, but I wouldn't know what to do about it if I did. ============================================ David S. Pinhasik Tadiran Information Systems @ Chaim Sheba Medical Center - Tel Hashomer, Israel +972 3 530 2261 +972 3 534 5748 fax +1 707 885 7831 US efax dsap@shani.net ============================================ - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Russell, Ron" Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] Cable modem [fast access through TV cable] [Connie Date: 18 May 1999 09:58:04 -0400 Robert, I think you are missing the essential point here. With cable modems (and potentially DSL) the concept of "logging on" goes away. The Internet and it vast wealth of resources become just a logical (and increasingly seamless) extension of your PC. You are no longer restricted to that which you have the hard drive capacity to store locally. I fail to see how having a minimized web browser on your desktop can be construed as a bother or where the network traffic you refer to arises. I in no way see any similarity to having a cell phone on stand-by. I too leave my cell-phone off when I am not making calls. The telephone demands your attention. The Internet does not or at least does not have to. If you want to access a Web resource, you use the browser, if not you minimize it. Disabling and enabling drivers and constantly rebooting seems to be an awful lot of trouble to go to. If you are really concerned with the browser being online for some reason then just shut it down. The same can be said for your email application. I respectfully suggest you rethink this. You are missing some amazing capabilities and changes in the way we conduct our lives. Ron -----Original Message----- From: Robert Gammon [mailto:rgammon51@pdq.net] Sent: Monday, May 17, 1999 9:54 AM To: canslim Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Cable modem [fast access through TV cable] [Connie Mack] I see this issue in a different light. Having the computer constantly on the net is NOT something that I want. Presumably, with a cable modem and with an external ADSL modem, I can turn them off. With them off, I can boot the computer with the drivers disabled and be free of any network traffic. When I want to get on the net, I turn the modem on, and re-boot the computer with the drivers enabled. Some of us regard this in the same light as a cell phone. Do we leave it on standby all the time, or do we turn it off when we have no interest in being bothered? Robert On Sun, 16 May 1999 18:18:33 -0400, Connie Mack Rea wrote: >Several members have asked me if I have a cable modem. I don't, but >only because my cable company is a bit backward. > >Here is an excerpt from one of the sites below that makes you want to >move to a cable modem: > > > In addition to speed, cable modems offer another key benefit: >constant > connectivity. Becuase cable modems use connectionless >technology, > much like in an office LAN, a subscriber's PC is always online >with the > network. That means there's no need to dial-in to begin a >session, so > users do not have to worry aboutr receiving busy signals. >Additionally, > going online does not tie up their telephone line. > >Try these sites: > > http://www.godset.dk/cablemodem/cable_modem.htm > > http://www.cabledatacomnews.com/cmic/cmic1.html > > http://rpcp.mit.edu/~gingold/cable/#Manufacturers > >Connie Mack > > >- > > - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Peter Newell" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Automated Daily quotes Date: 17 May 1999 17:36:45 PDT Jerry, You can do this with Quotes plus 2 by scheduling the internet downloader with a /GO option, in Windows 98 or by getting a scheduler. Peter Newell >From: Jerry Hickman >Reply-To: canslim@lists.xmission.com >To: canslim@lists.xmission.com >Subject: [CANSLIM] Daily Quotes >Date: Mon, 17 May 1999 09:38:10 -0400 > >Hi members, > >I wonder if anyone on this list uses or did use Prodigy and its Quote Track >to get daily stock quotes? I do, using ProDownLoader--automated to get >currently >550 quotes while I sleep. The problem is Prodigy will no longer >supply this service after October 1. If I want to continue to operate as I >have in the past, I will need to find another source. So far I have not >found any that will allow for unattended downloads. This is handy for >vacations, etc. Any ideas anyone?? > >Jerry Hickman > > >- > > _______________________________________________________________ Get Free Email and Do More On The Web. Visit http://www.msn.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Bruce Perry Subject: [CANSLIM] DSP, et al Date: 18 May 1999 08:48:54 -0700 Thanks to everyone who responded to my DSP note. Some really good points for CANSLIM investors - especially about those strange earnings numbers. Has IBD's computer screening program ever miscalculated a value? ;> I think I will continue to just watch DSP, till its volume and earnings show me something new. On to another topic. What is everyone's impression of the general market and economy right now? The indexes (especially NASDAQ Composite) seem a little 'indecisive' right now, though It doesn't quite seem to fit the market topping 'increasing volume without further upward progress' criteria of CANSLIM. I'm still bullish, but only because the general economy is still doing so well. - Bruce - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Warren Keuffel Subject: [CANSLIM] "M" in 2H99 Date: 18 May 1999 10:16:41 -0600 Bruce wrote: >On to another topic. What is everyone's impression of the general market and economy right now? The indexes (especially NASDAQ Composite) seem a little 'indecisive' right now, though It doesn't quite seem to fit the market topping 'increasing volume without further upward progress' criteria of CANSLIM. > >I'm still bullish, but only because the general economy is still doing so well. This brings up a topic I'd like to hear opinions on. From what I have heard from various sources and from what I have observed, for the past two or three years the market has made its major gains in the first half of the year, then in the second half it either consolidates or declines. Supposedly this is because (roughly speaking) investors invest in the companies in 1H and then in 2H they look for the companies to deliver on their investors' expectations. My question to the group is twofold: (1) Do you agree with this pattern, and (2) if so, does that mean the "M" component of CANSLIM is negative during 2H, thus providing few investment opportunities? Thanks. Warren Keuffel wkeuffel@acm.org - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: rolatzi Subject: [CANSLIM] Federal Reserve Meeting Date: 18 May 1999 11:38:23 -0700 (PDT) They have announced a bias toward tightening citing inflation risk and left rates unchanged. http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990518/ti.html Ciao, rolatzi _____________________________________________________________ Do You Yahoo!? Free instant messaging and more at http://messenger.yahoo.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: musicant@pacbell.net (Dan Musicant) Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] "M" in 2H99 Date: 18 May 1999 19:11:46 GMT On Tue, 18 May 1999 10:16:41 -0600, you wrote: :Bruce wrote: : :>On to another topic. What is everyone's impression of the general = market :and economy right now? The indexes (especially NASDAQ Composite) seem a :little 'indecisive' right now, though It doesn't quite seem to fit the :market topping 'increasing volume without further upward progress' = criteria :of CANSLIM. :> :>I'm still bullish, but only because the general economy is still doing = so :well. : :This brings up a topic I'd like to hear opinions on. From what I have :heard from various sources and from what I have observed, for the past = two :or three years the market has made its major gains in the first half of = the :year, then in the second half it either consolidates or declines. :Supposedly this is because (roughly speaking) investors invest in the :companies in 1H and then in 2H they look for the companies to deliver on :their investors' expectations. : :My question to the group is twofold: (1) Do you agree with this = pattern, :and (2) if so, does that mean the "M" component of CANSLIM is negative :during 2H, thus providing few investment opportunities? : :Thanks. : :Warren Keuffel :wkeuffel@acm.org Um...What's 1H and 2H? Dan - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Joe Jungbluth" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] "M" in 2H99 Date: 18 May 1999 15:45:40 -0400 1H= First half, 2H= Second half musicant@pacbell.net (Dan Musicant) on 05/18/99 03:11:46 PM Please respond to canslim@lists.xmission.com To: canslim@lists.xmission.com cc: (bcc: Joe Jungbluth/OrbMD) Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] "M" in 2H99 On Tue, 18 May 1999 10:16:41 -0600, you wrote: :Bruce wrote: : :>On to another topic. What is everyone's impression of the general market :and economy right now? The indexes (especially NASDAQ Composite) seem a :little 'indecisive' right now, though It doesn't quite seem to fit the :market topping 'increasing volume without further upward progress' criteria :of CANSLIM. :> :>I'm still bullish, but only because the general economy is still doing so :well. : :This brings up a topic I'd like to hear opinions on. From what I have :heard from various sources and from what I have observed, for the past two :or three years the market has made its major gains in the first half of the :year, then in the second half it either consolidates or declines. :Supposedly this is because (roughly speaking) investors invest in the :companies in 1H and then in 2H they look for the companies to deliver on :their investors' expectations. : :My question to the group is twofold: (1) Do you agree with this pattern, :and (2) if so, does that mean the "M" component of CANSLIM is negative :during 2H, thus providing few investment opportunities? : :Thanks. : :Warren Keuffel :wkeuffel@acm.org Um...What's 1H and 2H? Dan - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Bruce Perry Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] "M" in 2H99 Date: 18 May 1999 12:56:06 -0700 I'm too new to investing to have an opinion on the first question. Maybe higher growth in 1H (first half of year) and lower growth in 2H (second half) are tied to something very simple like consumer spending patterns? School, vacations, & holidays in latter part of calender year (I assume you were refering to calendar year?) cut into disposable funds (ie. investment $) Is spring the time of year when a person's fancy turns to IPO's and stock portfolios? - Bruce >This brings up a topic I'd like to hear opinions on. From what I have >heard from various sources and from what I have observed, for the past two >or three years the market has made its major gains in the first half of the >year, then in the second half it either consolidates or declines. >Supposedly this is because (roughly speaking) investors invest in the >companies in 1H and then in 2H they look for the companies to deliver on >their investors' expectations. > >My question to the group is twofold: (1) Do you agree with this pattern, >and (2) if so, does that mean the "M" component of CANSLIM is negative >during 2H, thus providing few investment opportunities? > >Thanks. > >Warren Keuffel >wkeuffel@acm.org > > >- > - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "James Adams" Subject: [CANSLIM] PMTC Breakout Date: 18 May 1999 17:02:21 -0400 I've been watching PMTC and got in today and jumped out as it retracted.....mistake... It finished at 14.56, +1 7/8 on huge volume after basing for 2 1/2 months. Any thoughts? Would it be too extended now? Not CANSLIM at this time, but has been followed by some on the group over the past few months. James Adams jadams@ntr.net jimadams@may-uky.campus.mci.net Maysville, KY USA - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] guc Date: 18 May 1999 22:10:01 -0400 Hi David, I don't follow the cosmetics industry closely, but did a fast look-around. Simply put, LVMH wants to buy GUC, GUC wants to get a better price (LVMH last offered $85/share, but with conditions), and GUC in order to head off being adversely acquired, apparently agreed to sell 40% of the co to PPR for $3 billion, which some shareholders consider to be mismanagement and are suing. The whole mess is tied up in the Amsterdam Court of Appeals. GUC has said they will support a buyout if at $88/share and without conditions. With PPR controlling 42%, tho encumbered now with legal challenges (the $3 billion having been frozen by the Court pending the outcome of the mismanagement charges), LVMH appears to want to take control without having to pay a premium to PPR. Meanwhile, the co has been downgraded by a few firms, probably because they suspect they are busier with litigation than in running the co. Gut reaction, lots better opportunities out there. An investment here could tie up capital for a long time, with only about a 15% potential gain, and if the whole mess falls apart, a potential quick loss. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html -----Original Message----- Can someone comment on GUC? All I know is EPS 93 RS 88 and that volume is extremely dried up. On May 27 a court will decide if LMVHA will be allowed to takeover or not. David Not only do I not know what's going on, but I wouldn't know what to do about it if I did. ============================================ David S. Pinhasik Tadiran Information Systems @ Chaim Sheba Medical Center - Tel Hashomer, Israel +972 3 530 2261 +972 3 534 5748 fax +1 707 885 7831 US efax dsap@shani.net ============================================ - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: [CANSLIM] New DGO feature Date: 18 May 1999 22:15:10 -0400 Don't tell DGO, as I haven't renewed my subscription just yet, but this just upped the value of this service tremendously. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html -----Original Message----- Hi Tom, Our next software release, due out September 1st, will provide the Datablock feature for all stocks. Daily Graphs Online - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] "M" in 2H99 Date: 18 May 1999 22:44:00 -0400 Hi Warren, It is important to recognize that there are some seasonal influences to how the mkts perform. I will try to list a few from memory: note that these comments are applicable only and exclusively to the US mkts. Early in the year, there is often a substantial infusion of fresh cash looking for a home. This is predominantly coming from end of year bonuses and to a lesser degree a result of raises; as well as tax refunds (if IRS owes you money then you tend to file earlier). In most recent years, the ability to file electronically, or file a condensed version has accelerated the refunds from IRS (I filed very late, by snail mail, a condensed version prepared with Turbotax, and still got the fastest refund in several decades for example. My first year to use computer software for this, I will be using Turbotax next year! ). During the summer, there is a typical "doldrums" largely influenced by summer vacations. Just as the working stiffs take some time off to relax, so do investors, brokers, and corporate executives. This results in less news releases, less investing activity, less attention to the mkts, less money to invest, less productivity at corporate levels, less marketing efforts by the corporate sales forces, etc. In the fall, there are the usual "back to school" expenses, most heavily felt by those with college age children having to up the ante for tuition and other related expenses. This can put a damper on putting fresh money into investing, and even generate a negative cash flow. It can also cause distractions both at the investing level as well as the corporate level. Late in the year, tax related selling comes into play. This affects both stocks with big gains as well as those with big losses. Selling gains to offset losses already taken as well as selling paper losses to avoid taxes on booked gains weighs equally on the mkts, both generate selling pressure. Overlaying all this is that we have had each year a record growth in participation in tax sheltered investing thru principally 401 type plans. Not too many years ago, mutual fund managers were the dominant influence on stock prices, now it is the pension plan managers (many of whom are also involved in the mutual funds mkt). So far history has shown that very few investors dedicating a portion of their paycheck via 401 plans try to "time the market", rather simply using a cost averaging approach and putting a portion in every paycheck. In many cases, they can't make changes except on a quarterly basis anyway. This steady infusion of money must be invested somewhere, and has served to put a threshold on just how far a market can sell off in any technical correction. Having said all this, I would venture to say that the "summer doldrums" presents an opportunity for the strongest cos to show their leadership and performance. Finding them poses a greater task than usual, as you can't simply look at the ones "in favor" and hitting new highs. You also have to examine earnings and sales reports in detail. Having done so, you are better positioned to pick off the ones with the best CANSLIM elements, and also best positioned to dominate their industry come the Fall or Winter. Which, of course, leads us directly into the Santa Claus rally typically found in late December and January! Not a great time for the daytrader, but tremendous for the true investor. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html -----Original Message----- Bruce wrote: >On to another topic. What is everyone's impression of the general market and economy right now? The indexes (especially NASDAQ Composite) seem a little 'indecisive' right now, though It doesn't quite seem to fit the market topping 'increasing volume without further upward progress' criteria of CANSLIM. > >I'm still bullish, but only because the general economy is still doing so well. This brings up a topic I'd like to hear opinions on. From what I have heard from various sources and from what I have observed, for the past two or three years the market has made its major gains in the first half of the year, then in the second half it either consolidates or declines. Supposedly this is because (roughly speaking) investors invest in the companies in 1H and then in 2H they look for the companies to deliver on their investors' expectations. My question to the group is twofold: (1) Do you agree with this pattern, and (2) if so, does that mean the "M" component of CANSLIM is negative during 2H, thus providing few investment opportunities? Thanks. Warren Keuffel wkeuffel@acm.org - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] PMTC Breakout Date: 18 May 1999 22:52:20 -0400 James, with an RS of 38 and an EPS of 62, I presume you had some rationale other than CANSLIM as to why you would "jump in" here? Likewise, I presume that same rationale would justify such a quick jump back out. From a CANSLIM perspective, its earnings were virtually flat on a year to year basis for nine months, then fell sharply on the latest quarter. The very poor performance and chart appear well justified from an earnings perspective. I have not looked at any TA on this one, as the CANSLIM aspects would have steered me away from it. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html -----Original Message----- I've been watching PMTC and got in today and jumped out as it retracted.....mistake... It finished at 14.56, +1 7/8 on huge volume after basing for 2 1/2 months. Any thoughts? Would it be too extended now? Not CANSLIM at this time, but has been followed by some on the group over the past few months. James Adams jadams@ntr.net jimadams@may-uky.campus.mci.net Maysville, KY USA - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Patrick Wahl" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] "M" in 2H99 Date: 18 May 1999 22:08:37 -0800 Date sent: Tue, 18 May 1999 10:16:41 -0600 > This brings up a topic I'd like to hear opinions on. From what I have > heard from various sources and from what I have observed, for the past two > or three years the market has made its major gains in the first half of the > year, then in the second half it either consolidates or declines. > Supposedly this is because (roughly speaking) investors invest in the > companies in 1H and then in 2H they look for the companies to deliver on > their investors' expectations. This is a pretty well known seasonal pattern, I think at least part of this comes from money flows, where retirement money, 401K things, IRA money, tax refunds, etc., is flowing into the market. Most of the gains in the market tend to come in the December - April period. - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Steve" Subject: [CANSLIM] Fw: [CLARANET] Internet Freedom Alert Date: 19 May 1999 18:22:19 -0700 Hi all. I just received this from a reliable source. I'm surprised there hasn't been a bill in the hopper to charge us a fee for the sniffing "they" do over the internet as well. ---------------------------Message Received Follows---------------------- >Dear Internet Subscriber: > >Please read the following carefully if you intend to >stay online and continue using email: The last few >months have revealed an alarming trend in the >Government of the United States attempting to quietly >push through legislation that will affect your use of >the Internet. Under proposed legislation the U.S. >Postal Service will be attempting to bilk email users >out of "alternate postage fees". Bill 602P will permit >the Federal Govt to charge a 5 cent surcharge on >every email delivered, by billing Internet Service >Providers at source. The consumer would then be >billed in turn by the ISP. Washington D.C. lawyer >Richard Stepp is >working without pay to prevent this legislation from >becoming law. The U.S. Postal Service is claiming that >lost revenue due to the proliferation of email is >costing nearly $230,000,000 in revenue per year. You >may have noticed their recent ad campaign "There is >nothing like a letter". Since the average citizen >received about 10 pieces of email per day in 1998, the >cost to the typical individual would be an additional >50 cents per day, or over $180 dollars per year, above >and beyond their regular Internet costs. Note that >this would be money paid directly to the U.S. Postal >Service for a service they do not even provide. The >whole point of the Internet is democracy and >non-interference. If the federal government is >permitted to tamper with our >liberties by adding a surcharge to email, who knows >where it will end. You are already paying an >exorbitant price for snail mail because of bureacratic >efficiency. It currently takes up to 6 days for a >letter to be >delivered from New York to Buffalo. If the U.S. Postal >Service is allowed to tinker with email, it will mark >the end of the "free" Internet in the United States. >One congressman, Tony Schnell (r) has even suggested a >"twenty to forty dollar per month surcharge on all >Internet service" above and beyond the government's >proposed email charges. Note that most of the major >newspapers have ignored the story, the only exception >being the Washingtonian which called the idea of email >surcharge "a useful concept who's time has come" >March 6th 1999 Editorial) Don't sit by and watch your >freedoms erode away! > >Send this email to all Americans on your list and tell >your friends and relatives to write to their >congressman and say "No!" to Bill 602P. > >Kate Turner Assistant to Richard Stepp, Berger, Stepp and Gorman >Attorneys at Law 216 Concorde Street, Vienna, Va. -------------------End of Received Message------------------------------------- Sincerely, CLARA Technical Support Division Michael E. Cantrall mailto:webmaster@claranet.cpda.org Phone: 916-362-1686 x303 or 1-800-538-4993 x 303 Fax: 916-362-5498 After Hours Voice Mail/Pager: 916-855-1687 U.S. snail mail: 3273 Ramos Circle, Sacramento, CA 95827 ************************************************************* C O N F I D E N T I A L I T Y N O T I C E This entire message constitutes a privileged and confidential communication between criminal defense lawyers. Pursuant to California Evidence Code Section 952 and California Code of Civil Procedure Section 2018, this information may not be disclosed, or otherwise distributed to non-CLARANET subscribers. Any such unauthorized disclosure or distribution by CLARANET subscribers will result in termination of CLARANET subscription privileges. If you have received this message and you are not a CLARANET subscriber, please help us correct the mistake by contacting claratech@cpda.org or call the claratech toll free at 1-800-538-4993 x 303. ************************************************************* Attention CLARANET Subscribers: When you reply to a CLARANET message, you should remove this entire notice, as it will be added again when it goes through the CLARANET List Server System. ************************************************************* 1. The CLARAWEB address is: http://www.cpda.org/claraweb/home.html 2. CLARANET E-Mail Account Manager for vacation list and other options is at: http://www.cpda.org/claraweb/claranet/claranetlistservers.html You may use the E-Mail Account Manager to set your CLARANET E-Mail account to receive only the "Daily Digest" of all e-mail on the system if you find that you are being overwhelmed with e-mail. 3. Do not post technical assistance questions to this list. Such questions should be sent in the form of an e-mail message to claratech@cpda.org. 4. Business hours technical assistance: 1-800-538-4993 x 303 5. Hi Priority Assistance: After-Hours Internet Pager Service: Send an email to mailto:claratechpager@claranet.cpda.org High priority matters include: Concerns that the system is not responding, and may be down, or that you cannot log into CLARAWEB and you are working on something that can't wait until the next work day. When sending an e-mail pager message, please keep the length of the message to no more than 240 characters. You can send a second message if you need more characters. If you do not receive an automated confirmation e-mail message within 30 minutes, instead call the CLARANET pager voice mail system at 916-855-1687 and leave a voice message. - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Tim Fisher Subject: [CANSLIM] Re: Internet Freedom Alert HOAX Date: 19 May 1999 19:08:49 -0700 This is an old hoax that has been around at least as long as the "Internet Access Charge" hoax. Please research anything that says "pass this on to all of your friends" or similar language first before posting it to a large list. In fact, it's a good bet that anything that says that is a hoax in the first place. I could go into details (i.e. there is and never was any House or Senate bill "602P" - the congress doesn't number bills that way; ever heard of Tony Schnell"? No, because there is no such senator or representative!). Whoops, I just did. Sorry! At 06:22 PM 5/19/99 -0700, you wrote: > >Hi all. I just received this from a reliable source. I'm surprised there >hasn't been a bill in the hopper to charge us a fee for the sniffing "they" >do over the internet as well. > Tim Fisher, 1995 President, Pacific Fishery Biologists Ore-ROCK-On Rockhounding Web Site PFB Information mailto:tim@OreRockOn.com WWW http://OreRockOn.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Re: Internet Freedom Alert HOAX Date: 19 May 1999 22:25:54 -0400 Actually, Tim, I thought this was a good piece of humor being posted. But it did give me a good idea, why don't we all start charging the post office five cents for every piece of unsolicited junk mail they deliver to our homes to help offset the cost of our bulk waste and garbage bills to dispose of it? Anyway, I agree, classic "old hoax". Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html -----Original Message----- This is an old hoax that has been around at least as long as the "Internet Access Charge" hoax. Please research anything that says "pass this on to all of your friends" or similar language first before posting it to a large list. In fact, it's a good bet that anything that says that is a hoax in the first place. I could go into details (i.e. there is and never was any House or Senate bill "602P" - the congress doesn't number bills that way; ever heard of Tony Schnell"? No, because there is no such senator or representative!). Whoops, I just did. Sorry! At 06:22 PM 5/19/99 -0700, you wrote: > >Hi all. I just received this from a reliable source. I'm surprised there >hasn't been a bill in the hopper to charge us a fee for the sniffing "they" >do over the internet as well. > Tim Fisher, 1995 President, Pacific Fishery Biologists Ore-ROCK-On Rockhounding Web Site PFB Information mailto:tim@OreRockOn.com WWW http://OreRockOn.com - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Dan Cash Subject: [CANSLIM] This virus warning just came in and it is SERIOUS! Date: 19 May 1999 19:48:14 -0700 Published Wednesday, May 5, 1999, in the San Jose Mercury News Warning: Virus strikes e-mail BY BOB HIRSCHFELD A new computer virus is spreading throughout the Internet, and it is far more insidious than last week's Chernobyl menace. Named Strunkenwhite, after the authors of a classic guide to good writing, it returns e-mail messages that have grammatical or spelling errors. It is deadly accurate in its detection abilities, unlike the spell-checkers that come with word processing programs. The virus is causing something akin to panic throughout corporate America, which has become used to the typos, misspellings, missing words and mangled syntax so acceptable in cyberspace. The CEO of LoseItAll.com, an Internet startup, said the virus has rendered him helpless. ``Each time I tried to send one particular e-mail this morning, I got back this error message: 'Your dependent clause preceding your independent clause must be set off by commas, but one must not precede the conjunction.' I threw my laptop across the room.'' A top executive at a telecommunications and long-distance company, 10-10-10-10-10-10-123, said: ``This morning, the same e-mail kept coming back to me with a pesky notation claiming I needed to use a pronoun's possessive case before a gerund. With the number of e-mails I crank out each day, who has time for proper grammar? What is a gerund, anyway?'' A broker at Begg, Barow and Steel speculated that the hacker who created Strunkenwhite was a ``disgruntled English major who couldn't make it on a trading floor. When you're buying and selling on margin, I don't think it's anybody's business if I write that `i meetinged through the morning, then cinched the deal on the cel phone while bareling down the xway.' '' If Strunkenwhite makes e-mailing impossible, it could mean the end to a communication revolution once hailed as a significant time-saver. A study of 1,254 office workers in Leonia, N.J., found that e-mail increased employees' productivity by 1.8 hours a day because they took less time to formulate their thoughts. (The same study also found that they lost 2.2 hours of productivity because they were e-mailing so many jokes to their relatives and stockbrokers.) Strunkenwhite is particularly difficult to detect because it doesn't come as an e-mail attachment. Instead, it is disguised within the text of an e-mail titled ``Congratulations on your pay raise.'' The message asks the recipient to ``click here to find out about how your raise effects your pension.'' The use of ``effects'' rather than the grammatically correct ``affects'' appears to be an inside joke from Strunkenwhite's mischievous creator. The virus has left government e-mail systems in disarray. Officials at the Office of Management and Budget can no longer transmit electronic versions of federal regulations because their highly technical language seems to run afoul of Strunkenwhite's dictum that ``vigorous writing is concise.'' The White House speechwriting office reported that it had received the same message, along with a caution to avoid phrases such as ``the truth is ...'' and ``in fact ...'' Meanwhile, bookstores and online booksellers reported a surge in orders for Strunk and White's ``The Elements of Style.'' The slim book seems to be the only antidote to the virus. Bob Hirschfeld enjoys receiving e-mails in plain English through his Web site, www.bobsfridge.com. He wrote this column for the Washington Post. - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Robert Gammon" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] This virus warning just came in and it is SERIOUS! Date: 20 May 1999 07:11:07 -0500 (CDT) Dan, The problem I have with these e-mail 'viruses' is that there is an unstated presumption. In order to be affected by the virus, it appears that certain pre-conditions must exist. You are using MS Outlook, or perhaps Netscape to read your mail. The computer on your desk has an Intel CPU in it, and you are running Win9x on your computer. If any one of these is true, then you have zero chance of being infected. It bothers me greatly that these presumptions are not stated in the stories. Some portion of the user community who reads this is getting unnecessarily concerned because their computer doesn't meet the preconditions. Robert - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Joe Jungbluth" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Re: Internet Freedom Alert HOAX Date: 20 May 1999 09:16:56 -0400 Ya know, if a bill ever is introduced along these lines, it will be almost impossible to mobilize a reaction to counter it due to the proliferation of hoaxes. "Black Helicopter" time. :) Joe Jungbluth icq 35414539 - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Joe Jungbluth" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] This virus warning just came in and it is SERIOUS! Date: 20 May 1999 09:19:29 -0400 Now that's funny! Joe Jungbluth icq 35414539 - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Bruce Perry Subject: Fwd: [CANSLIM] DSP, et al Date: 20 May 1999 15:19:55 -0700 >Thanks to everyone who responded to my DSP note. Some really good points for CANSLIM investors - especially about those strange earnings numbers. Has IBD's computer screening program ever miscalculated a value? ;> > >I think I will continue to just watch DSP, till its volume and earnings show me something new. NYSE:DSP closed at 31 minus a teenie today. Up 2.5 from yesterday. Up at least 4 from just last week. Hope I didn't already miss the $25 breakout... Don't have my IBD with me. How are the volume numbers looking? - Bruce - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Bruce Perry Subject: [CANSLIM] DSP News Date: 20 May 1999 16:17:08 -0700 I came across this news item about DSP Communications dated 5/19. =20 I know I shouldn't copy it w/o permission, but the truth is, I haven't got a= clue what it means. Anyone know what 'crossed' means? And who is Warburg= Dillon Read? - Bruce 05/19 10:33 BLOCK TRADE - DSP Communications 200,000 at 28-1/4, up 1-1/2, crossed by Warburg Dillon Read=20 COPYRIGHT =A9 1999 REUTERS LIMITED. ALL= RIGHTS RESERVED.=20 ** Reprinted w/o permission ** - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] DSP News Date: 20 May 1999 23:55:48 -0400 Hi Bruce, A "crossed" trade is simply a large, typically a block, trade where the prices for the buyer and the seller are already negotiated outside of then current mkt prices because of the size. It is a "no risk" trade for the firm handling it (in this case Warburg, Dillon Read) as both the sellor and the buyer have already agreed on pricing. Warburg is a large firm, doing a lot of bond business with my bank among many others. Because this trade was "crossed", it indicates that Warburg was not taking it into their inventory to work out to their clients or the mkt later. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html -----Original Message----- I came across this news item about DSP Communications dated 5/19. I know I shouldn't copy it w/o permission, but the truth is, I haven't got a clue what it means. Anyone know what 'crossed' means? And who is Warburg Dillon Read? - Bruce 05/19 10:33 BLOCK TRADE - DSP Communications 200,000 at 28-1/4, up 1-1/2, crossed by Warburg Dillon Read COPYRIGHT =A9 1999 REUTERS LIMITED. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. ** Reprinted w/o permission ** - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: [CANSLIM] More "nut" hype? Date: 21 May 1999 00:07:14 -0400 Just how far can we overvalue stocks that have any internet connotation? Here's the latest: Etoys rocketed 283% to 76 9/16 during its first day of trading, proving that the Internet bubble continues to balloon, at least for IPOs. Despite losses of $28.5 million last year and anticipated higher losses in the near future, its $7.5 billion market cap exceeds Toys R Us by about $2 billion. Should we even consider here that TOY is expected to earn something like $375 million on about $12 billion in sales this current year? Meanwhile, Etoys, less than two years old and doing about as much business in a year as TOY does in a week, carries a higher mkt cap? Apparently so! I think I'll stick to what makes more sense to me. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Marc Laniado" Subject: [CANSLIM] CLE Date: 21 May 1999 07:07:59 +0100 CLE seems to be forming a nice base, although I suspect with too much management ownership. Marc E Laniado marclaniado@msn.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: CA011667@aol.com Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] More "nut" hype? Date: 21 May 1999 09:13:33 EDT CMED looks like it is nearing breakout.By my chart analysis that is 13 3/8, just below the old high.EPS 99 RS 88.Daily chart is starting to look real nice with c/h.Group srength is only C, but float of only 1.8mil so breakout could be dramatic as fundamentals have been excellent.Chris. - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Peter Newell" Subject: [CANSLIM] Breakouts from yesterday -ATI, VOD, LIPO Date: 21 May 1999 09:15:59 -0700 ATI - EPS 92 RS 92 GS 93 A/D A - actually broke out Wed should be buyable VOD EPS 97 RS 97 GS 93 A/D A - looks a lot like ATI LIPO EPS 77 RS 95 GS 82 A/D A - double bottom I love this chart, low priced so more volatile COLT and UNH broke out also they are nonCanslim, ie low EPS or low GS Peter Newell - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: musicant@pacbell.net (Dan Musicant) Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Breakouts from yesterday -ATI, VOD, LIPO Date: 21 May 1999 14:32:39 GMT On Fri, 21 May 1999 09:15:59 -0700, you wrote: :ATI - EPS 92 RS 92 GS 93 A/D A - actually broke out Wed should be = buyable :VOD EPS 97 RS 97 GS 93 A/D A - looks a lot like ATI :LIPO EPS 77 RS 95 GS 82 A/D A - double bottom I love this chart, low = priced :so more volatile : :COLT and UNH broke out also they are nonCanslim, ie low EPS or low GS : :Peter Newell Re: LIPO -- I don't know that I'd call that a double bottom, Peter. The chart does look very nice. Unfortunately (in my opinion), this is a bio-tech company, and the sector is a mine field, IMO. It's not following through today. I think it's one to watch, but I'm not in here. Quite thinly traded for the float/outstanding figures. Two coverages, one moderate buy, one hold: http://biz.yahoo.com/z/a/l/lipo.html Dan - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: musicant@pacbell.net (Dan Musicant) Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Another boring quote on internet business activity Date: 21 May 1999 15:03:53 GMT On Mon, 17 May 1999 22:21:25 -0400, you wrote: :This one from Infobeat: : :Internet companies are putting investment banking on :steroids as the number of Web deals struck in the first :month of this year nearly doubled all of last year's ".com" :activity. In January, 11 Web properties were purchased for :just over $11.5 billion, or more than double the $6 billion :spent in the entire year of 1998, according to a new study :by Internet consulting firm New Media Resources. The study :shows that there were 45 Web M&A transactions totaling $12.9 :billion in the first quarter of this year vs. $250 million :in the first quarter of 1998 : :Tom Worley :stkguru@netside.net :chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 :get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html Based on this, I'd say this arena is taking off.=20 Dan - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Bruce Perry Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] DSP News Date: 21 May 1999 13:18:25 -0700 Thanks for the info. I wonder if Warburg Dillon Read gets two commissions for the deal? - Bruce At 11:55 PM 5/20/99 -0400, you wrote: >Hi Bruce, > >A "crossed" trade is simply a large, typically a block, >trade where the prices for the buyer and the seller are >already negotiated outside of then current mkt prices >because of the size. It is a "no risk" trade for the firm >handling it (in this case Warburg, Dillon Read) as both the >sellor and the buyer have already agreed on pricing. Warburg >is a large firm, doing a lot of bond business with my bank >among many others. > >Because this trade was "crossed", it indicates that Warburg >was not taking it into their inventory to work out to their >clients or the mkt later. > >Tom Worley >stkguru@netside.net - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: [CANSLIM] Couple of CANSLIM oriented articles Date: 22 May 1999 07:15:12 -0400 For those looking for some quick refreshers on CANSLIM, here's two articles: http://www.dailygraphs.com/dgtranscripts/canslim.htm - quick review of CANSLIM http://www.dailygraphs.com/dgtranscripts/smr.htm - this reviews SMR Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: [CANSLIM] Week's Performance; "M" Date: 22 May 1999 08:53:28 -0400 Well, several rotations still appear to be in play. There's the selloff in the bond mkt on fears of inflation and higher rates in the future. However the money from that selling pressure is clearly not flowing into stocks judging by some of the anemic daily volumes we have been seeing on NYSE and NASDAQ. Probably going to money mkts for now, or shorter term paper, tho some strengthening on Friday. Then there's the growth vs cyclical rotation. That looked this week to me like the cyclicals were losing, but so were the growth stocks. Not sure where that money was escaping to, maybe just cash in the confusion. Can't overlook the "momentum" groups either, dominated by the internet stocks in recent months. They seem to still be suffering from excess valuations and hype and profit taking by those bold enough to have caught a ride. Yet, net internut IPOs like eToy (ETYS) still enjoyed a ridiculous opening enthusiasm for investors. I cannot relate to the thinking of whoever was buying this in the aftermarket, but obviously someone was. Good luck, no way to keep a tight stop on something like this one. Naturally, can't write something like this without also looking at the big cap vs small cap performance. The Russell 2000 Index was the only one I watch that was up for the week. Here's the report card: NASDAQ -0.3% Dow 30 -0.7% S&P100 -0.2% S&P500 -0.5% Russell 2000 +1.3% MS Cyclical -2.0% Also worth noting that VIX dropped 14.4% for the week, but still too high at 25.36. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Marc Laniado" Subject: [CANSLIM] Short interest increase and PLCE Date: 22 May 1999 15:21:00 +0100 Dear All, Can someone explain the significance in terms of trading that short interest has. Children's Place (PLCE) which is/was a high flyer has seen its short interest (days trade) change from 1.8 to 7.7 (327% change) in one month. This is 37.8% of its float. PLCE looks like its on its way down and approaching a major trend line up. Does this mean a short squeeze could occur pushing its stock value up? On a general point, does short interest help choose what to buy or sell? Thanks in advance for help offered. Marc E Laniado marclaniado@msn.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Ben Heffer Subject: [CANSLIM] gehl Date: 22 May 1999 10:03:56 -0600 Take a look at GEHL. It just jumped because of a buyout by a Canadian company. It has a decent EPS for the last 4-5 years. May not be a canslim stock at all but, being so new at this, I don't know if the stock price increase because of the buyout will last for a few days or not. What is the typical history on this sort of thing? Do any of you give any credence to the recommendations of other analysts that are always available online? Reactions, thoughts. Thanks, Ben Heffer 963-2428 home 945-9183 work Cyber Consultants-Training, Installations, Home Page Design mailto:bheffer@sopris.net http://mt.sopris.net/bheffer/gses/gses.html - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Connie Mack Rea Subject: [CANSLIM] Candlesticks. Date: 22 May 1999 16:13:27 -0400 For using candlesticks to chart-read stocks, this is a good site to begin with: http://207.95.154.130/analysis/candle/ Connie Mack - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Short interest increase and PLCE Date: 22 May 1999 18:49:51 -0400 Hi Marc, First, a quick refresher in short statistics. If you already understand this, bear with me as many members may not. The shares sold short numbers are a monthly snapshot, reported about a week after the effective date, thus are already stale when reported. NYSE is done around the 15th of each month, Nasdaq a few days later. The actual report is done in then current nr of shares, however most sites report in the nr of days of average volume it would take to cover the short position. DGO for example reports this way. There are several weaknesses to this approach. First, if volume has dried up (not the case with PLCE) then the nr of days required can increase even with the nr of shares sold short going down. Secondly, there is nothing to say that short sellers can't cover in a single day. Yes, it would cause a volume spike, but if there was bad news, or a heavy seller, could happen without sig price change. It's also important to "get in the heads of the short sellers" and understand why they are selling. It does not appear with PLCE that any of the following apply, but they do apply in general: (1) if there are convertible bonds, a short seller can buy the bond, take in the interest, have a hedge against his short position, and collect interest as well on the cash from the short sell; (2) if a public co is acquiring another public co with stock, you can short sell the acquiring co and buy the shares of the co being acquired (arbitrage) covering the short position upon conversion and pocketing the difference; (3) option strategies involving short selling the stock and selling puts against it, taking in cash for a stock you wanna own anyway if it is put to you, thus closing the short position. Finally, we come to the most common reason for short selling a stock: cuz you think it's inflated and due for a fall. Looking at PLCE's chart, I don't see a reason to be a heavy seller or short seller. It's not one I have followed so don't know what news or rumors may be out there, and certainly the mkt trend overall is not favorable to shorting in the retail industry. They show 0% debt, so a rise in interest rates won't have a measurable impact. On the other hand, there is 78% management ownership, which gives rise to my cynical suspicion that some members of the mngmt team might be short selling their own stock to raise cash when otherwise they could not sell due the restricted nature of their holdings. I didn't check the SEC site for any insider filings to sell, but they may have some stock options coming up and wanted to lock in the recent price rise in case it slipped back, then cover in a month or two with new shares issued at very low prices. Just a guess, not even a gut level hunch. If I'm right, then a short squeeze won't affect them as they already have (or will have) the shares to cover when they please. As to your question on how to use short position reports in any buy/sell decision making, I would say it's a factor to consider, but only long after selecting according to the seven elements of CANSLIM, then studying the chart and how the stock is behaving, and maybe even after doing some technical analysis. For me, it's an extremely minor issue. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html -----Original Message----- Dear All, Can someone explain the significance in terms of trading that short interest has. Children's Place (PLCE) which is/was a high flyer has seen its short interest (days trade) change from 1.8 to 7.7 (327% change) in one month. This is 37.8% of its float. PLCE looks like its on its way down and approaching a major trend line up. Does this mean a short squeeze could occur pushing its stock value up? On a general point, does short interest help choose what to buy or sell? Thanks in advance for help offered. Marc E Laniado marclaniado@msn.com - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] gehl Date: 22 May 1999 19:31:25 -0400 Ben, I assume, since I found no news on GEHL, that the buyout you mention was on another co in the same industry. First, the spike on volume on Friday has already taken it to nearly over 10% above any CANSLIM based buy point. Second, news driven moves can just as quickly evaporate. From a CANSLIM point of reference, I note that while GEHL has many decent CS elements, it is also showing a forecasted earnings growth of only 9% this year, and a DROP in earnings next year of 4%. Its trailing 5 year historic PE is only 5 to 13, and with Friday's spike, it's already at 9 trailing. Projected PE won't be much better with such a low earnings forecast. Not a CANSLIM buy or watch for me, nor in an industry (Farm equipment) that I perceive as one ready to become a leader. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html -----Original Message----- Take a look at GEHL. It just jumped because of a buyout by a Canadian company. It has a decent EPS for the last 4-5 years. May not be a canslim stock at all but, being so new at this, I don't know if the stock price increase because of the buyout will last for a few days or not. What is the typical history on this sort of thing? Do any of you give any credence to the recommendations of other analysts that are always available online? Reactions, thoughts. Thanks, Ben Heffer 963-2428 home 945-9183 work Cyber Consultants-Training, Installations, Home Page Design mailto:bheffer@sopris.net http://mt.sopris.net/bheffer/gses/gses.html - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Connie Mack Rea Subject: [CANSLIM] Linear regression and market depression [Connie Mack] Date: 22 May 1999 22:42:38 -0400 There is an expression among pilots that there are those who have landed with the wheels up and those who will land with the wheels up. Analogously, there are traders/investors who have dickered with linear regression lines and those who will dicker with them. I most often use 5/10/20/40 lines. The results of these lines are quite different from EMAs. Superimposing LR lines on EMAs will show the differences. RL lines are used to give buy/sell signals, to indicate trends, and to forecast prices. If you want to see what these LR lines look like on a stock with a superlative chart, pull up ULTE. Here is a stock still very close to an entry position following a lateral basing. The 40 LR is strongly inclined. The 20 has slowly passed crossed up through the 40. The 10 has now crossed down through the 40, 20, and 5 [the lateral correction]. The return to the up leg is indicated by the 5 passing through the 10 and in preparation for passing through the 20. The pattern implies higher prices. If you use Worden's software, you can enter these RL lines and then back test them by using the right and left brackets or the arrows at the bottom of your chart. Hold down the left bracket and watch the correlation with price pass through successive time periods. You can make some extrapolations of price by extending the LR lines onto the edge of your chart. In a sense, these lines are just another species of trend lines. If you put these RL lines to the NASDAQ and DOW, you can infer a correction. If you want to pursue LR lines, take a look at these sites: http://www.equis.com/free/taaz/index.html http://www.hotbot.com/ [Enter "linear regression lines" in the search box; you'll have all you'll need to know, generally and technically. There's even a calculator in a couple of early sites that will draw regression lines if you put in some numbers.] I like these stocks: USWB: The RL lines indicate a short term recovery; some danger. Yet one of the big houses put out a buy on Thursday or Friday. CUI: The RL lines indicate a breakout from a much stronger position than USWB. CS: What gives CS promise is that it is coming off a double bottom, and the RL lines [5 and 10] are giving a buy. You can see by the 20 and 40 lines that the down trend still presents a danger for recovery. To test your reading of the RL lines, you might check CIR. Don't forget that the RLs are weakening for the DOW and NASDAQ. Connie Mack - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: [CANSLIM] Foreign based corps Date: 23 May 1999 13:37:45 -0400 Members, I have been noting an increasing trend, so far limited to Israeli based corps, to open a US based office, often with an 800 telephone nr, and somehow manage to drop the "F" from their five letter symbol on Nasdaq. Makes them look like a US corp with presumably limited foreign exposure. For those trading Nasdaq and having foreign exposure as part of your criteria, check carefully where the co is HQ'd. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: musicant@pacbell.net (Dan Musicant) Subject: [CANSLIM] Wash-sale rule Date: 23 May 1999 18:14:19 GMT I was reading an article in IBD (March 26) on online investing and came across a reference to this rule, which has to do with investing and the IRS. Can someone explain this? Thanks. Dan - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Robert Gammon" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Wash-sale rule Date: 23 May 1999 14:18:23 -0500 (CDT) Wash sales are defined as purchase of an identical stock, or even substantially similar, within 30 days of a sale that shows a loss. In such cases, the loss is is disallowed by the IRS. The loss adds to the basis of the new lot that you purchased. Note: the purchase may come up to 30 days BEFORE or AFTER the sale of the stock at a loss. This rule was instituted to handle the problem posed by people who sold stock at a loss in December, to report it as such n their tax returns, only to buy it back in a few days, once Jan 1 rolled around. Wash sale rules do not apply in retirement accounts, i.e. IRAs, 401(k), 403(k), SIMPLE, etc. since profits and losses in these accounts do not appear on our tax returns. Robert On Sun, 23 May 1999 18:14:19 GMT, Dan Musicant wrote: >I was reading an article in IBD (March 26) on online investing and came >across a reference to this rule, which has to do with investing and the >IRS. Can someone explain this? Thanks. > >Dan > > >- > > - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Marc Laniado" Subject: [CANSLIM] short interest Date: 23 May 1999 22:21:33 +0100 Dear Tom, Thank you for your explanation. Best wishes, Marc Marc E Laniado marclaniado@msn.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: mckeen@ix.netcom.com Subject: [CANSLIM] Seasons of the Market Date: 23 May 1999 19:17:57 -0500 (CDT) Tom, Thanks for the "big picture" "seasonal" influences on the market. I wonder, though, if this scenario hasn't changed a little with regular 401K contributions, the growth of on-line trading, as well as day traders. Mary - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Seasons of the Market Date: 24 May 1999 00:11:10 -0400 Since most 401 plans funnel cash each payday or month into various mutual funds, the increased use of 401 plans has tended to place a threshold in any corrections. Mutual funds, by definition, must generally remain invested on the long side, so as more more regularly flows in, they must keep buying. Increased online trading has definitely added to the volatility, as well as to day trding activity, but I don't believe it has affected mkt trends. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html -----Original Message----- Tom, Thanks for the "big picture" "seasonal" influences on the market. I wonder, though, if this scenario hasn't changed a little with regular 401K contributions, the growth of on-line trading, as well as day traders. Mary - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Tim Fisher Subject: [CANSLIM] Ebay's Growth (NOT CANSLIM!) Date: 24 May 1999 06:32:42 -0700 I couldn't sleep this AM so I did so I did something typical for a statistical geek such as myself - I downloaded my eBay account history, and based on the cumulative number of items listed from last Sept through today, I get an almost perfect fit to an exponential growth function, with an R-squared of 0.996. This is kinda hard to believe, but the number of items listed, which stands at about 105 million today (was 32 million last Sept.), is projected to be about 680 million in May 2000 (at the current rate of growth). Now assuming any business can sustain this growth rate (and that is a _big_ assumption), and eBay's profits remain similar, isn't this a slam-dunk buy-and-hold stock? I know Kensey of Clearstation is thrilled with its performance, he recommends buying anytime it approaches the 50 DMA since it seems to never violate that average. Tim Fisher, 1995 President, Pacific Fishery Biologists Ore-ROCK-On Rockhounding Web Site PFB Information mailto:tim@OreRockOn.com WWW http://OreRockOn.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: musicant@pacbell.net (Dan Musicant) Subject: [CANSLIM] Re: Where is Japan at CME futures website? Date: 24 May 1999 13:48:34 GMT =46YI: Some of you may have noticed that Japan has been missing at: http://quote.yahoo.com/m2?u Some of you may also remember that it was not long ago that=20 United Kingdom FTSE 100 was also missing (it is not, nowadays). I emailed an inquiry a few days ago and got the following response. Dan ---- Hello Dan, Thank you for your email. We used to carry this index, but our content provider discontinued the feed. We are looking for a new source. We apologize for the temporary inconvenience. Thanks for using Yahoo!. Regards, Yahoo! Customer Care Original message follows:=20 ------------------------- Hi people! Simple question: Until recently Japan's Nikei Index was among the Asian-Pacific countries whose indexes are reported at http://quote.yahoo.com/m2?u What has occurred that is causing this obviously important index to be missing nowadays? Thanks for your reply! Dan Musicant - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Carol R. Reynolds" Subject: [CANSLIM] Dell Date: 23 May 1999 20:31:16 -0700 I have owned Dell for about 4 months. Would you advise to sell or hold it longer. I was hoping it would come back up with the last earnings announcement. ___________________________________________________________________ You don't need to buy Internet access to use free Internet e-mail. Get completely free e-mail from Juno at http://www.juno.com/getjuno.html or call Juno at (800) 654-JUNO [654-5866] - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Connie Mack Rea Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Dell Date: 24 May 1999 12:55:33 -0400 Morning Carol-- Wouldn't sell your DELL. It's approaching a long term support at 35.5. I've been buying DELL this morning at 35.625, 35.75, and 35.875. This would be an opportunity to add to your position. Connie Mack Carol R. Reynolds wrote: > I have owned Dell for about 4 months. Would you advise to sell or hold > it longer. I was hoping it would come back up with the last earnings > announcement. > ___________________________________________________________________ > You don't need to buy Internet access to use free Internet e-mail. > Get completely free e-mail from Juno at http://www.juno.com/getjuno.html > or call Juno at (800) 654-JUNO [654-5866] > > - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Connie Mack Rea Subject: [CANSLIM] Stochastic trading system for the OSX. Date: 24 May 1999 18:30:17 -0400 Had thought I published this site earlier. A couple of members have asked me about the oils/drillers. This is a superb site for oils/drillers/rig counts/and a stochastic trading system: http://www.osxstocks.com/ Connie Mack - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Re: Where is Japan at CME futures website? Date: 24 May 1999 21:19:43 -0400 Hi Dan, Tho I couldn't get yahoo to tell me so in a similar dialogue, you can still get the quote on the Nikkei at http://quote.yahoo.com/q?s=^N225&d=t (don't know why the last part doesn't stay highlighted, tried it twice, best to cut and paste). Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html -----Original Message----- website? FYI: Some of you may have noticed that Japan has been missing at: http://quote.yahoo.com/m2?u Some of you may also remember that it was not long ago that United Kingdom FTSE 100 was also missing (it is not, nowadays). - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Dell Date: 24 May 1999 22:04:58 -0400 Carol, You don't say what your reasons were for buying it about four months ago, however having held it now for that time, I assume you at least now are either looking at it as a mid to long term investment, or else simply trying to get back even. Connie's comments, from a day trading standpoint, certainly make sense. However, from a CANSLIM perspective, I would have to disagree. First, from the chart it looks like you bot somewhere around $45, thus you are now having to digest a $10 loss, about a 22% negative. From CANSLIM, you should have been out some time ago. Over the past four months, there have been several opportunities to have exited more or less intact, or even with small profits, but none that created such large profits or overbot scenarios to compel a sell. Looking only at the recent weeks, during which time there were a nr of neg articles on the growth potential of PC makers, I see it violating the 50 DMA solidly, and with today's trading, also violating the 200 DMA. This is the first time in many months it has violated the 200. Had you used a solid 8% downside sell stop, you would have been out some months ago. That said, you now must decide why you want to still own DELL. If you bot it as a "mattress stuffer" (not a bad idea, IMHO), then Connie is correct, this may be a decent opportunity to add to your holdings. If you bot it purely on CANSLIM reasons, then I can see a nr of reasons to not own it, including the RS of 71; A/D of D; Timeliness of C; up/down ratio of 0.7. If you want it for the long term, then I can also see some positives such as the EPS of 99 or the 5 year earnings growth of 86%. Unfortunately, having well passed any 8% exit rule, you now must decide why you own it still, and what you want from it longer term. If you believe in it long term, but just want to get even short term, then averaging down, tho not recommended for CANSLIM, may make sense. If you just want to cut your losses and free up unproductive capital, then simply holding and selling into any rally may make more sense. If you bot it intending to hold for 3-5 years, then buying more may also make sense. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html -----Original Message----- I have owned Dell for about 4 months. Would you advise to sell or hold it longer. I was hoping it would come back up with the last earnings announcement. ____________________________________________________________ _______ You don't need to buy Internet access to use free Internet e-mail. Get completely free e-mail from Juno at http://www.juno.com/getjuno.html or call Juno at (800) 654-JUNO [654-5866] - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Ebay's Growth (NOT CANSLIM!) Date: 24 May 1999 22:28:46 -0400 Hi Tim, Ebay has been one of the few nut stocks that seemed to me to deserve some of its high premium pricing, but still seemed overvalued. However, looking at its history thus far of its short public life, its revenues still appear to be growing faster than its earnings, thus even if it can maintain its sales/listing growth for the next few years, I am not sure it will translate into equal or greater growth in its earnings. And, like any success story, it will continue to attract competition, both from upstart new net cos, as well as existing well entrenched net cos that can expand their business enterprises to include auction activities. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html -----Original Message----- I couldn't sleep this AM so I did so I did something typical for a statistical geek such as myself - I downloaded my eBay account history, and based on the cumulative number of items listed from last Sept through today, I get an almost perfect fit to an exponential growth function, with an R-squared of 0.996. This is kinda hard to believe, but the number of items listed, which stands at about 105 million today (was 32 million last Sept.), is projected to be about 680 million in May 2000 (at the current rate of growth). Now assuming any business can sustain this growth rate (and that is a _big_ assumption), and eBay's profits remain similar, isn't this a slam-dunk buy-and-hold stock? I know Kensey of Clearstation is thrilled with its performance, he recommends buying anytime it approaches the 50 DMA since it seems to never violate that average. Tim Fisher, 1995 President, Pacific Fishery Biologists Ore-ROCK-On Rockhounding Web Site PFB Information mailto:tim@OreRockOn.com WWW http://OreRockOn.com - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: FBNAirPlt@aol.com Subject: [CANSLIM] Acc/Dis Numbers Date: 24 May 1999 22:50:47 EDT Here are the latest Acc/Dis Numbers: Date A B C D E AB/A:E %E 5/4/1999 1533 2795 1136 869 343 65% 5% 5/5/1999 1597 2818 1108 849 309 66% 5% 5/6/1999 1545 2818 1128 852 316 66% 5% 5/7/1999 1548 2818 1125 847 319 66% 5% 5/10/1999 1573 2803 1117 856 303 66% 5% 5/11/1999 1603 2780 1126 849 303 66% 5% 5/12/1999 1639 2806 1130 792 304 67% 5% 5/13/1999 1701 2814 1067 778 311 68% 5% 5/14/1999 1676 2856 1067 766 308 68% 5% 5/17/1999 1715 2889 1044 762 289 69% 4% 5/18/1999 1623 2876 1078 807 318 67% 5% 5/19/1999 1582 2866 1087 820 342 66% 5% 5/20/1999 1570 2910 1072 813 339 67% 5% 5/21/1999 1606 2886 1071 793 349 67% 5% 5/24/1999 1653 2890 1094 756 328 68% 5% Spreedsheet version: Date,A,B,C,D,E,AB/A:E,%E 5/4/1999,1533,2795,1136,869,343,65%,5%,, 5/5/1999,1597,2818,1108,849,309,66%,5%,, 5/6/1999,1545,2818,1128,852,316,66%,5%,, 5/7/1999,1548,2818,1125,847,319,66%,5%,, 5/10/1999,1573,2803,1117,856,303,66%,5%,, 5/11/1999,1603,2780,1126,849,303,66%,5%,, 5/12/1999,1639,2806,1130,792,304,67%,5% 5/13/1999,1701,2814,1067,778,311,68%,5% 5/14/1999,1676,2856,1067,766,308,68%,5% 5/17/1999,1715,2889,1044,762,289,69%,4% 5/18/1999,1623,2876,1078,807,318,67%,5% 5/19/1999,1582,2866,1087,820,342,66%,5% 5/20/1999,1570,2910,1072,813,339,67%,5% 5/21/1999,1606,2886,1071,793,349,67%,5% 5/24/1999,1653,2890,1094,756,328,68%,5% Robert - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: musicant@pacbell.net (Dan Musicant) Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Ebay's Growth (NOT CANSLIM!) Date: 25 May 1999 03:34:01 GMT On Mon, 24 May 1999 22:28:46 -0400, you wrote: :Hi Tim, : :Ebay has been one of the few nut stocks that seemed to me to :deserve some of its high premium pricing, but still seemed :overvalued. However, looking at its history thus far of its :short public life, its revenues still appear to be growing :faster than its earnings, thus even if it can maintain its :sales/listing growth for the next few years, I am not sure :it will translate into equal or greater growth in its :earnings. And, like any success story, it will continue to :attract competition, both from upstart new net cos, as well :as existing well entrenched net cos that can expand their :business enterprises to include auction activities. : :Tom Worley :stkguru@netside.net :chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 :get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html Ebay is interesting. I have bid in two auctions there, and "won" both. The first was about 2 years ago, considerably before they went public. The 2nd was the last few days, and I "won" last night.. You should realize this when it comes to eBay's competition: You are not likely to see a proliferation of auction sites on the Internet unless they are fundamentally different. It is in the interest of anyone patronizing an auction site to go to the site most apt to provide the most customers/products. If eBay has the lion's share of the "market", it is apt to continue to do so for this very reason.=20 People like their business model, as well as Amazon's because they are making money on the transactions. Most hits at most Internet sites are not directly revenue generating, however. Ebay is a pretty impressive site, far as I have seen. The system is very carefully put together. I found no errors, and I do have an editor's eye when I want to. I looked closely, and even read a lot of the agreement information that they make you agree to (there are obviously serious legal, ethical, efficacy issues that need to be dealt with very carefully).=20 As far as I have seen, the people who patronize the site (auctioners and bidders) have been quite ethical and helpful. I'm sure that there are exceptions, but what I've seen so far is very positive. It appears to me (at least in this situation) that instead of succumbing to any temptation of trying to take advantage of a system in which honor takes a great part, people tend to rise to the occasion and act honorably. How's this for a 52 week range, 8.42 to 234? Currently at 183 1/4. Dan :-----Original Message----- :From: Tim Fisher :To: canslim@mail.xmission.com :Date: Monday, May 24, 1999 9:35 AM :Subject: [CANSLIM] Ebay's Growth (NOT CANSLIM!) : : :I couldn't sleep this AM so I did so I did something typical :for a :statistical geek such as myself - I downloaded my eBay :account history, and :based on the cumulative number of items listed from last :Sept through :today, I get an almost perfect fit to an exponential growth :function, with :an R-squared of 0.996. This is kinda hard to believe, but :the number of :items listed, which stands at about 105 million today (was :32 million last :Sept.), is projected to be about 680 million in May 2000 (at :the current :rate of growth). Now assuming any business can sustain this :growth rate :(and that is a _big_ assumption), and eBay's profits remain :similar, isn't :this a slam-dunk buy-and-hold stock? I know Kensey of :Clearstation is :thrilled with its performance, he recommends buying anytime :it approaches :the 50 DMA since it seems to never violate that average. : : :Tim Fisher, 1995 President, Pacific Fishery Biologists :Ore-ROCK-On Rockhounding Web Site :PFB Information :mailto:tim@OreRockOn.com :WWW http://OreRockOn.com : :- : : : :- : - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Johan Van Houtven Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Dell Date: 25 May 1999 20:50:05 +0200 Connie, From my daytraders standpoint 35 1/8 (current intra-day quote) is a sell. But that is based purely in the way I daytrade. From a longer term perspective I can see the descending triangle forming. the long term still show an uptrend. Concentrating on the triangle, and ASSUMING a positive resolution to the upside, I'd expect a consolidation period (for DELL) instead of a significant uptrend in the comming weeks. As I typically hold stocks for only a few weeks max, DELL is not a stock I'd consider as a long pick currently. Just stating it as I see it, and willing to learn. So I'd appreciate your view on things as they currently stand. BTW, my thinking above is influenced by the bullish sentiment in the market, which I see as a negative (thus a correction is more likely than a soldid uptrend). But from a daytraders view a bounce is likely as the VIX has or shortly will break the upper Bollinger band, making a reversal quite likely. We are however in a short-term down trend. At 12:55 PM 5/24/99 -0400, you wrote: >Morning Carol-- > >Wouldn't sell your DELL. It's approaching a long term support at 35.5. > >I've been buying DELL this morning at 35.625, 35.75, and 35.875. This would >be an opportunity to add to your position. > >Connie Mack > > > > >Carol R. Reynolds wrote: > >> I have owned Dell for about 4 months. Would you advise to sell or hold >> it longer. I was hoping it would come back up with the last earnings >> announcement. >> ___________________________________________________________________ >> You don't need to buy Internet access to use free Internet e-mail. >> Get completely free e-mail from Juno at http://www.juno.com/getjuno.html >> or call Juno at (800) 654-JUNO [654-5866] >> >> - > > > > >- > > Johan - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Connie Mack Rea Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Dell Date: 25 May 1999 14:58:04 -0400 Johan-- Don't disagree with much you say. I'm day trading DELL right now. Am in at 35.25. If it doesn't hold at 35, don't let the screen door leave an etching on you a--. I'm just looking for a bounce right now. Tomorrow is another life time for me. Thanks for the note. Connie Johan Van Houtven wrote: > Connie, > > >From my daytraders standpoint 35 1/8 (current intra-day quote) is a sell. > But that is based purely in the way I daytrade. From a longer term > perspective I can see the descending triangle forming. the long term still > show an uptrend. > > Concentrating on the triangle, and ASSUMING a positive resolution to the > upside, I'd expect a consolidation period (for DELL) instead of a > significant uptrend in the comming weeks. As I typically hold stocks for > only a few weeks max, DELL is not a stock I'd consider as a long pick > currently. > > Just stating it as I see it, and willing to learn. So I'd appreciate your > view on things as they currently stand. > > BTW, my thinking above is influenced by the bullish sentiment in the > market, which I see as a negative (thus a correction is more likely than a > soldid uptrend). But from a daytraders view a bounce is likely as the VIX > has or shortly will break the upper Bollinger band, making a reversal quite > likely. We are however in a short-term down trend. > > At 12:55 PM 5/24/99 -0400, you wrote: > >Morning Carol-- > > > >Wouldn't sell your DELL. It's approaching a long term support at 35.5. > > > >I've been buying DELL this morning at 35.625, 35.75, and 35.875. This would > >be an opportunity to add to your position. > > > >Connie Mack > > > > > > > > > >Carol R. Reynolds wrote: > > > >> I have owned Dell for about 4 months. Would you advise to sell or hold > >> it longer. I was hoping it would come back up with the last earnings > >> announcement. > >> ___________________________________________________________________ > >> You don't need to buy Internet access to use free Internet e-mail. > >> Get completely free e-mail from Juno at http://www.juno.com/getjuno.html > >> or call Juno at (800) 654-JUNO [654-5866] > >> > >> - > > > > > > > > > >- > > > > > > Johan > > - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Sam Spade Subject: [CANSLIM] New world trading game Date: 25 May 1999 12:20:03 -0700 (PDT) If you want to enjoy the thrill of global speculation, visit FantaStock at http://oasi.asti.it/Homes/Porcellana.Silvio/stoxx/ It's a new FREE stock exchange game whose main features are: - quotes from Milan, Madrid, Paris, Frankfurt, London and New York (Dow Jones30 and Nasdaq100) - stock prices updated every 10 minutes - starting capital of 100000 euros (prices are expressed in dollars too) - exchange rates updated every 30 minutes - unlimited access I think that FantaStock is a great opportunity to gain real-world experience without loosing a penny, testing investment strategies on a global scenario. http://oasi.asti.it/Homes/Porcellana.Silvio/stoxx/ _________________________________________________________ Do You Yahoo!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Connie Mack Rea Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Dell Date: 25 May 1999 15:26:26 -0400 Johan-- Was trying to write to you and watch DELL at the same time. Sorry about the spelling. Connie Connie Mack Rea wrote: > Johan-- > > Don't disagree with much you say. I'm day trading DELL right now. Am in at > 35.25. > > If it doesn't hold at 35, don't let the screen door leave an etching on you a--. > > I'm just looking for a bounce right now. Tomorrow is another life time for me. > > Thanks for the note. > > Connie > > Johan Van Houtven wrote: > > > Connie, > > > > >From my daytraders standpoint 35 1/8 (current intra-day quote) is a sell. > > But that is based purely in the way I daytrade. From a longer term > > perspective I can see the descending triangle forming. the long term still > > show an uptrend. > > > > Concentrating on the triangle, and ASSUMING a positive resolution to the > > upside, I'd expect a consolidation period (for DELL) instead of a > > significant uptrend in the comming weeks. As I typically hold stocks for > > only a few weeks max, DELL is not a stock I'd consider as a long pick > > currently. > > > > Just stating it as I see it, and willing to learn. So I'd appreciate your > > view on things as they currently stand. > > > > BTW, my thinking above is influenced by the bullish sentiment in the > > market, which I see as a negative (thus a correction is more likely than a > > soldid uptrend). But from a daytraders view a bounce is likely as the VIX > > has or shortly will break the upper Bollinger band, making a reversal quite > > likely. We are however in a short-term down trend. > > > > At 12:55 PM 5/24/99 -0400, you wrote: > > >Morning Carol-- > > > > > >Wouldn't sell your DELL. It's approaching a long term support at 35.5. > > > > > >I've been buying DELL this morning at 35.625, 35.75, and 35.875. This would > > >be an opportunity to add to your position. > > > > > >Connie Mack > > > > > > > > > > > > > > >Carol R. Reynolds wrote: > > > > > >> I have owned Dell for about 4 months. Would you advise to sell or hold > > >> it longer. I was hoping it would come back up with the last earnings > > >> announcement. > > >> ___________________________________________________________________ > > >> You don't need to buy Internet access to use free Internet e-mail. > > >> Get completely free e-mail from Juno at http://www.juno.com/getjuno.html > > >> or call Juno at (800) 654-JUNO [654-5866] > > >> > > >> - > > > > > > > > > > > > > > >- > > > > > > > > > > Johan > > > > - > > - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Stephen Dreyer" Subject: [CANSLIM] Suggestions Date: 25 May 1999 15:18:50 -0700 I am searching for CANSLIM candidates, which I currently find a very difficult task. Any suggestions. - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Johan Van Houtven Subject: [CANSLIM] "M" Date: 25 May 1999 21:41:53 +0200 We are inside the 1280-1300 important support range of the S&P500 cuurently (1295 intraday quote). Things should be getting intresting now. Sometimes this is almost as good as watching a suspence movie. B^) Johan - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Johan Van Houtven Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Dell Date: 25 May 1999 21:44:37 +0200 At 03:26 PM 5/25/99 -0400, you wrote: >Johan-- > >Was trying to write to you and watch DELL at the same time. Sorry about the >spelling. > Don't worry, Connie, I'm the last on the list to notice spelling errors. :) 'Hope you get your bounce. Doesn't look to good though. Johan - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Johan Van Houtven Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Suggestions Date: 25 May 1999 21:53:05 +0200 At 03:18 PM 5/25/99 -0700, you wrote: >I am searching for CANSLIM candidates, which I currently find a very >difficult task. Any suggestions. Stay out of the market. That is the best advice I can give you from a CS standpoint. Sorry, for the short reply - busy daytrading... Johan - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Peter Newell" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] "M" Date: 25 May 1999 16:08:52 -0700 Yes, we appear to be picking up some downside momentum, IBD mentions that we've had 11 distrib days since March. Every indicator I use for market direction was taken out today. So I'd start selling my weak holdings soon. Peter Newell -----Original Message----- >We are inside the 1280-1300 important support range of the S&P500 cuurently >(1295 intraday quote). Things should be getting intresting now. > >Sometimes this is almost as good as watching a suspence movie. B^) > > > >Johan > > > > > > >- > > - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Peter Newell" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Suggestions Date: 25 May 1999 16:15:31 -0700 Stephen, Welcome to the list. I agree with Johnathan on staying out but you can start looking. I'd start with the best performing issues with good fundamental stories and go from there, ie Labor ready, Broadcom, Qlogic, EMC, Best Buy, internets(Ebay makes money), etc. Note: Dell didn't perform last time still good fundie story. You can take the Weekend review and look for stocks with six week bases every week. Normally you should find 6-7 stocks a week. Happy hunting, Peter Newell -----Original Message----- >I am searching for CANSLIM candidates, which I currently find a very >difficult task. Any suggestions. > > > > >- > > - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Bruce Perry Subject: Fwd: Re: [CANSLIM] Suggestions Date: 25 May 1999 14:38:33 -0700 Yes, the market is making me a little nervous right now too. I just watched my annualized total return on my large-cap growth mutual fund drop below 20% for the first time. I am new to stock market investing, so I will just outline my own personal version of the CANSLIM stock selection process. Anyone please feel free to praise/criticize any aspect of it. Each week in the Friday issue of IBD (usually on the last page of section B) there are two sections called 'Your Weekend Review' and 'Your Weekend Graphic Review'. The Weekend Review section is an incredibly useful (IMHO) list of stocks which have been computer pre-screened against several CANSLIM criteria. I just highlite the bolded entries (easier for me to see than just the boldface) in the top industry group by group strength (usually tech stocks). The list of stocks is conveniently arranged in order of industry group strength, so I can just scan from the beginnning of the list to about half way down the first column. I also highlite any non-bolded strongest industry group entries with Acc/Dist = 'A', EPS Rank >= 90, Rel Str >= 90, and Price Close <= $50. This step usually produces 1 to 3 companies. Next, I glance at the shape of the graphs in theWeekend Graphic Review section, just to see if there are any useful chart patterns -- stocks currently at, above or very near the highest price anywhere on the chart, with a clear price depression leading *up to* the current price or to a level price base. The companies from those charts get highlited as well. This may produce 1 or 2 additional companies, but ideally, you would like to see the good chart pattern belonging to one of the stocks already highlited in the Weekend Review section. In any case, this is just the beginning of the current week's due diligence. With the ticker symbols from the highlited stocks I go to my online brokerage website and pull up 2-year BASELINE charts (helps me see patterns), news (there should be something 'exceptional' within the last 3 months, to account for the 'N' in CANSLIM), current finacial statements and earnings estimates for each company. I like revenue and earnings to be very positive and very large and getting larger. I am also encouraged when I see the return on equity at the high point of the annual range for return on equity. Of course, earnings estimates for the next year should be positive, larger than actual earnings and getting larger. I also like 0% or near 0% long-term debt and a quick ratio of at least 2. - Bruce >Stephen, >Welcome to the list. >I agree with Johnathan on staying out but you can start looking. I'd start >with the best performing issues with good fundamental stories and go from >there, ie Labor ready, Broadcom, Qlogic, EMC, Best Buy, internets(Ebay makes >money), etc. Note: Dell didn't perform last time still good fundie story. >You can take the Weekend review and look for stocks with six week bases >every week. >Normally you should find 6-7 stocks a week. >Happy hunting, > >Peter Newell >-----Original Message----- >From: Stephen Dreyer >To: canslim@xmission.com >Date: Tuesday, May 25, 1999 12:28 PM >Subject: [CANSLIM] Suggestions > > >>I am searching for CANSLIM candidates, which I currently find a very >>difficult task. Any suggestions. >> >> >> >> >>- >> >> > > >- > - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Ben Heffer Subject: [CANSLIM] insider activity Date: 25 May 1999 18:37:45 -0600 Has anyone found an Internet tool that can pick out when the insiders are either buying or selling in significant amounts on a daily or weekly basis? Quite a correction today! Ben 963-2428 home 945-9183 work Cyber Consultants-Training, Installations, Home Page Design mailto:bheffer@sopris.net http://mt.sopris.net/bheffer/gses/gses.html - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Dan Cash Subject: [CANSLIM] Virus or worm Date: 25 May 1999 18:16:49 -0700 It has been brought to my attention that I have been sending email with an attachment HAPPY99.* From one of my machines. This attachment was not purposely attached by me, and I see no reference to it on that machine. It appears to become self attaching to email. Symantec.com has a fix, I am told. I recall seeing the attachment in a spam mailing with a huge list of addressees, and since I had heard of it through my daughter-in-law, I did not evoke it, but deleted it immediately. So I conclude that it has another means to become active. Please be aware of this creature, delete, do not evoke, and please forgive me of any inconvenience I caused you, if you in fact received it. This machine is fairly new, and I believe it is not crawling through its innards. Dan - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] insider activity Date: 25 May 1999 23:29:21 -0400 Ben, You have to understand that, while in theory, insiders should be reporting their "intention" to sell or buy before the fact, in truth by the time they file with the SEC and the details are published, it's usually a week or more, and often a month or more, after the actual execution. They don't have to get permission, just notify the SEC of what they are doing. Occasionally, you will see someone file notice of intent to "open up a window", but even there the details of when, how much and at what price will still not be formalized till well after the fact. The most accurate site for getting the precise details is to go to the SEC site and use EDGAR to review the actual filings with the SEC. This will give you not only the date the notice was filed, but who was selling/buying (which is sig), the quantity, the date(s) executed, and either the price or total dollar amounts (so you can divide money by quantity and get the avg price). Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html -----Original Message----- Has anyone found an Internet tool that can pick out when the insiders are either buying or selling in significant amounts on a daily or weekly basis? Quite a correction today! Ben 963-2428 home 945-9183 work Cyber Consultants-Training, Installations, Home Page Design mailto:bheffer@sopris.net http://mt.sopris.net/bheffer/gses/gses.html - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Suggestions Date: 26 May 1999 00:04:24 -0400 Steve, I have historically focused the search for my watch list on reviewing those stocks hitting new highs each day. My first task whenever I get home from work is to print the list of the Naz stocks (and also review the ones on NYSE). Even if I don't get a chance to review their CANSLIM qualities that day at DGO (Daily Graphs Online, a subscriber service from Wm O'Neil's IBD), then I do so that weekend. Stocks may sit on my watch list for weeks or months before either I have a reason to kick them off (failing CS qualities) or to buy them. I get the list from http://www.dbc.com/cgi-bin/htx.exe/newsroom/highlow.html?sou rce=blq/dailystocks In addition, I use the new list provided at DGO listing stocks meeting basic CANSLIM criteria which are at or within 5% of their high. In all, this gives me about 250 to 300 stocks every week to review. More than enough to keep my watch list overflowing so far. Once one makes it onto my watch list, I use BigCharts for any technical analysis. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html -----Original Message----- I am searching for CANSLIM candidates, which I currently find a very difficult task. Any suggestions. - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: [CANSLIM] On "M" and corrections/rotations Date: 26 May 1999 01:10:59 -0400 I just did a machine gun review of a bunch of indexes. This is my gut level reaction to what I saw on the charts. Virtually every major index (I looked at the Dow 30; NYSE Composite; Nasdaq; Russell 2000; Trans; Utilities; Financials and probably several others that I have already forgotten) has either by now soundly broken thru its 50 DMA or is right at it (most already broke thru). The Utilities is the only chart to continue a solid uptrend, R2000 is still well over its 50 DMA and showing a rising RS line. Most of the indexes are showing a flat RS line, few are showing any serious deterioration in relative strength. I see a diminishing in buying volume on "dips" but only steady volume on the sell side, which suggests no panic, but no "bargain basement shopping" by the institutionals either. It also suggests to me that the individual investor, which can collectively account for considerable volume, is not rushing in to fulfill the "if you thought it was a bargain at $XXX, then you should just love it at $XX" syndrome. The long awaited "correction" or "bursting of the bubble" of the internut stocks is finally occurring, much to the relief of their shorters. Course, it's happening two or three times the price many expected, so as relief goes, Rolaids won't cure the damage. The recent IPO of eToys (ETYS) was particularly untimely, each day since going public it has closed at the low end of the day's trading. Still, its up about 250% for the lucky few able to acquire any IPO priced shares (bet none of us were in that "public" group!). But virtually every single investor hyped into buying it in the aftermarket has now lost money, some big time. My confidence in the small caps for the mid to long term, heck even for the short term, still isn't that strong. I've seen these rotations before, where value and earnings growth is sought despite the lack of liquidity. I think the potential is there, but got doubts whether it will be fully realized or last long enough. On inflation, precious metals is just not confirming. Gold just hit another 20 YEAR low. On consumer spending ( the engine that has been driving the US economy), consumer confidence continued to grow for something like the seventh month straight, first time in about 20 years or so. At the same time, retail chain stores sales fell nearly 2%. The media elected to focus on consumer sentiment, I focused on how they really and actually spent their dollars, which was to stop spending. Globally, not an issue to the US consumer. Kosovo, no sweat. European economy, who cares? LATAM, hey look, oil's up, they should be OK. Asia and Japan, why worry, Japan says they're recovering so they're out of the woods, right? On the bond mkt, finally the ridiculous oversell conditions appear to be balancing out. Valuations have been way too high for far too long, esp with the internut stocks. That appears to be finally evening itself out. There is still good value out there, but now is not a time for aggression, rather one of caution. Expect volatility, use the time to find good opportunities. Be selective, find the best of the best, and be patient. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: mckeen@ix.netcom.com Subject: [CANSLIM] General Questions Date: 26 May 1999 07:09:04 -0500 (CDT) What is the significance when the declines lead advances and the highs lead the lows? This happened on both the NASDAQ and the S&P on Monday. Also, does the high/low ratio of a stock have to do with its volatility, with 2 being more volatile than 1? Thanks. Mary - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Peter Newell" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] General Questions Date: 26 May 1999 09:58:14 -0700 Mary, Here's my take or mindset on New highs/New Lows and the Advance/Decline line How can I tell if stocks are bouncing around or moving up or down, this is reflected in new highs/new lows and cannot lie stocks that are moving up will hit new highs stocks that are moving down will hit new lows stocks that are bouncing around will do neither(all time highs) and on Jul 23, 1998 they went from something like 500ish a day to 150 and then 20 something. How can I tell if a majority off the stocks are moving the a/d line helps and I also like percent of stocks over 200 dma or such. In Jul of 1998 the a/d line was in shabbles then the new highs took a decisive hit and it was time to sell. Hope this helps, Peter -----Original Message----- >What is the significance when the declines >lead advances and the highs lead the lows? >This happened on both the NASDAQ and the S&P >on Monday. > >Also, does the high/low ratio of a stock >have to do with its volatility, with 2 being >more volatile than 1? > >Thanks. >Mary > > >- > > - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: canslim@email.com Subject: [CANSLIM] breakouts Date: 26 May 1999 11:32:00 -0400 (EDT) cmvt and efii are breaking out in this volatile market.... good canslim numbers... FREE! The World's Best Email Address @email.com Reserve your name now at http://www.email.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Johan Van Houtven Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] breakouts Date: 26 May 1999 19:05:19 +0200 Please go and read DB's webpages at: http://home.talkcity.com//MoneySt/dbphoenix/ There you will learn what a break-out is. CMVT and EFII are NOT breaking out (from a CANSLIM standpoint). At best one can say they are bouncing from oversold levels. BTW, did you (canslim@email.com) introduce yourself to the list? If not, I'm sure it would be appreciated. Good luck. At 11:32 AM 5/26/99 -0400, you wrote: >cmvt and efii are breaking out in this volatile market.... >good canslim numbers... > >----------------------------------------------- >FREE! The World's Best Email Address @email.com >Reserve your name now at http://www.email.com > > > >- > > Johan - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Bruce Perry Subject: [CANSLIM] Shorting the Market Date: 26 May 1999 14:13:17 -0700 Has anyone thought about (or implemented) a reverse CANSLIM strategy designed to attempt to go short in bear markets? - Bruce - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Peter Newell" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Shorting the Market Date: 26 May 1999 17:39:29 -0700 There are some shorters in here. Basically, and its in the HTMMIS book you short the high-fliers that start breaking down below base on volume. By the way, I've made some quick 10-30% profits this way BUT every one of those stocks has at least doubled in the next rally so be careful. One problem with shorting is this if a stock gets cut in half and then cut in half again you have a 75% profit. If a stock doubles and then doubles again you have a 400% profit. Peter Newell -----Original Message----- >Has anyone thought about (or implemented) a reverse CANSLIM strategy designed to attempt to go short in bear markets? > >- Bruce > > > >- > > - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Johan Van Houtven Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Shorting the Market Date: 26 May 1999 23:51:37 +0200 At 05:39 PM 5/26/99 -0700, you wrote: >There are some shorters in here. Basically, and its in the HTMMIS book you >short the high-fliers that start breaking down below base on volume. > >By the way, I've made some quick 10-30% profits this way BUT every one of >those stocks has at least doubled in the next rally so be careful. One >problem with shorting is this if a stock gets cut in half and then cut in >half again you have a 75% profit. If a stock doubles and then doubles again >you have a 400% profit. Peter, That might not be a fair equation. If a stock goes up 50% and than goes up another 50%, you have a 75% profit. Just as when a stock gets cut in half (50%) and then gets cut in half again (another 50%), you get a 75% profit. Correct? > > >Peter Newell >-----Original Message----- >From: Bruce Perry >To: canslim@xmission.com >Date: Wednesday, May 26, 1999 2:17 PM >Subject: [CANSLIM] Shorting the Market > > >>Has anyone thought about (or implemented) a reverse CANSLIM strategy >designed to attempt to go short in bear markets? >> >>- Bruce >> >> >> >>- >> >> > > >- > > Johan - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Marc Laniado" Subject: [CANSLIM] Shorting stocks Date: 27 May 1999 00:25:20 +0100 Dear all, I know shorting isn't really CANSLIM, but it is trend following and WON does talk very briefly about it in his book. I see PVN made a good head and shoulders top before dropping. Does anyone have any recognition of other stocks so performing? LVCI has held up a bit whilst the other stocks in this category have taken a hit recently. Does anyone think this fits the bill for shorting? ADBE also held up whilst others in this sector fell. What about QCOM? LGTO has been trending down generally and has reached another peak short term rise. What about this one? Marc E Laniado marclaniado@msn.com Tel/Fax: +44 171 731 1354 Mobile +44 777 553 1354 - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] General Questions Date: 26 May 1999 22:34:17 -0400 Hi Mary, Part of the answer lies with how much of a spread there is in the adv/decline nrs and the new high/low nrs. Lately neither has been especially strong. The best feel I can get for what's going on continues to be some rotation out of the high multiple stocks (e.g. the internuts) and more into value. Some of the "value" destined cash is going into cyclicals; some into money mkts; some into bonds; some into small cap stocks; some simply staying in cash. I suspect the cash position (or possibly combined with money mkts) is quite strong right now. But the "dips" are not inducing buying into the high flyers (again, the internuts). Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html -----Original Message----- What is the significance when the declines lead advances and the highs lead the lows? This happened on both the NASDAQ and the S&P on Monday. Also, does the high/low ratio of a stock have to do with its volatility, with 2 being more volatile than 1? Thanks. Mary - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Shorting the Market Date: 26 May 1999 23:04:48 -0400 But bottom line remains that shorting should only be done by experienced investors that (a) know what they are doing; and (b) have developed disciplines so that they know when to take profits or cut losses and cover. My personal experience working with brokers (presumed to be both knowledgable and professional) is that far more money is lost trading the short side than is ever made either staying in cash or investing on the long side. Per the rules that I was taught, you don't short into a bullish mkt, and IMHO, that remains what we have. Shorting works best when there is a well established bear mkt, or at the least a bearish trend short term. Two weeks ago that might have prevailed, but today suggests at a loose glance a nice reversal. Haven't done all the analysis, but certainly not a mkt that would induce me to short right now. Direction is not certain, thus shorting, for me, is out of the question. Drat, I hate it when I start sounding even mildly bullish! Sorry, Dave (the long term members will understand this last comment, anyway). Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html -----Original Message----- At 05:39 PM 5/26/99 -0700, you wrote: >There are some shorters in here. Basically, and its in the HTMMIS book you >short the high-fliers that start breaking down below base on volume. > >By the way, I've made some quick 10-30% profits this way BUT every one of >those stocks has at least doubled in the next rally so be careful. One >problem with shorting is this if a stock gets cut in half and then cut in >half again you have a 75% profit. If a stock doubles and then doubles again >you have a 400% profit. Peter, That might not be a fair equation. If a stock goes up 50% and than goes up another 50%, you have a 75% profit. Just as when a stock gets cut in half (50%) and then gets cut in half again (another 50%), you get a 75% profit. Correct? > > >Peter Newell >-----Original Message----- >From: Bruce Perry >To: canslim@xmission.com >Date: Wednesday, May 26, 1999 2:17 PM >Subject: [CANSLIM] Shorting the Market > > >>Has anyone thought about (or implemented) a reverse CANSLIM strategy >designed to attempt to go short in bear markets? >> >>- Bruce >> >> >> >>- >> >> > > >- > > Johan - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] breakouts Date: 26 May 1999 23:13:02 -0400 Johan, Thanks for an "on target" response. Nice reversal in both, but agree, not a breakout. EFII in particular looks to me like it's run into a wall on earnings and sales growth, maybe one qtr left of easy comparisons (the one we're now in) and after that may be tough sledding. And ROE is down to 12% as well. Not the first time "canslim" has been asked for an intro. I'm not optimistic. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html -----Original Message----- Please go and read DB's webpages at: http://home.talkcity.com//MoneySt/dbphoenix/ There you will learn what a break-out is. CMVT and EFII are NOT breaking out (from a CANSLIM standpoint). At best one can say they are bouncing from oversold levels. BTW, did you (canslim@email.com) introduce yourself to the list? If not, I'm sure it would be appreciated. Good luck. At 11:32 AM 5/26/99 -0400, you wrote: >cmvt and efii are breaking out in this volatile market.... >good canslim numbers... > >----------------------------------------------- >FREE! The World's Best Email Address @email.com >Reserve your name now at http://www.email.com > > > >- > > Johan - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: musicant@pacbell.net (Dan Musicant) Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Shorting stocks Date: 27 May 1999 14:50:06 GMT On Thu, 27 May 1999 00:25:20 +0100, you wrote: :Dear all, : :I know shorting isn't really CANSLIM, but it is trend following and WON = does :talk very briefly about it in his book. :I see PVN made a good head and shoulders top before dropping. Does = anyone :have any recognition of other stocks so performing? PVN I wouldn't short based on the chart but the news has been so damaging it's incredible. Word on PBS's NBR last night was that an indictment is about to be handed down against them. You might find that your broker cannot short them at this point. :LVCI has held up a bit whilst the other stocks in this category have = taken a :hit recently. Does anyone think this fits the bill for shorting? In general, it is not recommended to short a stock that has not shown weakness already. It's like, you want the beast to be weary, dazed, blindfolded and not having any sense of direction before you approach it with a syringe to put it out! Otherwise, you may be in for a nasty event. Of course, I'm kind of kidding, but really, many will not short a stock that is not below the 50 DMA, and LVCI is well above it. It is barely wilting in the stiff breeze of this morning's down market. This doesn't mean you cannot make a lot of money shorting a stock showing this kind of strength if your prognostication of a sudden weakening is correct, however the market is not confirming your thinking, and it can be dangerous to make a practice this. ADBE also :held up whilst others in this sector fell. What about QCOM? QCOM is just kissing the 50 DMA. The news I have heard about them is very positive. Not a classic short. I think you want to short a sagging stock in a downtrend that is a member of a sector in a downtrend.=20 :LGTO has been trending down generally and has reached another peak short :term rise. What about this one? LGTO has just knifed through it's 50 day to the upside. It's best to short a stock that is bouncing off its 50 day (from the downside). I was looking around for something last Friday and after several hours layed out a short against CMB. The threat of interest rate hikes is bound to take a large toll on the banking sector. The charts have been weakening, and although the sector is not nearly as volatile as the tech sector, I figured my odds good with this one. One day later the infamous "Sell" recommendation played in my favor, but I covered quickly yesterday as the trend reversed. Now I wonder if I might not have done better hanging on for a few weeks at least. Indeed, the big banks still look vulnerable to me. The "Buy" recommendation that came in Tuesday looks to me to be a weak counterattack. The guy who issued the "Sell" stuck his neck out and probably wonders if he didn't jeapardize his career, but the person who replaced their "Hold" with a "Buy" is probably foolish, in my opinion. Then again, I covered.=20 Dan : :Marc E Laniado :marclaniado@msn.com :Tel/Fax: +44 171 731 1354 :Mobile +44 777 553 1354 : : : : :- : - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Peter Newell" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Shorting stocks Date: 27 May 1999 11:09:59 -0700 I like to short new highs that fail, ie down next day on higher volume and look climatic like MVIS SFP, FSA why I know where my stop is a new high. Also, ROST looks interesting. What I'd be real careful about is something like TAGS it almost to the prior base and could bounce. Peter Newell - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Bill Ford Subject: [CANSLIM] Re: Shorting Stocks/Puts Date: 27 May 1999 09:17:12 -0800 We use a mechanical shorting system that uses some of the canslim rankings to identify stocks that have climbed 400% or more over the last 52 weeks and are beginning to fail. This system works in bull or bear markets. Read more at the address below: http://www.pitbull.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Walter Stock Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] On "M" and corrections/rotations Date: 27 May 1999 15:34:20 -0400 >The long awaited "correction" or "bursting of the bubble" of >the internut stocks is finally occurring, much to the relief >of their shorters. Hi Tom, Agree that a correction in the Nets is occurring. Unfortunately for those who tried to make a living shorting the Net stocks over the last two years, well, many of them are now "pursuing other career opportunities" as they say. I think that a lot of the selling in the Nets was from longs locking in their profits as opposed to short-selling. I know I locked in several weeks ago when I sold my DCLK. Shorting the Net is still a very dangerous business as yesterday's quick rally showed. I think the key is with the new Internet IPO's however. Yesterday five Internet IPO's took place. Two closed higher. The shock is that one Net IPO closed essentially unchanged, and that two more closed lower : Juno Online Services (JWEB:Nasdaq) a low-cost Internet service provider with free email, closed down 10.6%, at 11 5/8, and ZipLink (ZIPL:Nasdaq) closed down 11.6%, at 12 3/8. This is a disaster for those two stocks... they are "broken" IPO's in Wall Street parlance.. Most broken IPO's take a year or more to recover back to their offering price, and many don't recover at all - ever. This will give pause to the many IPO's still in the pipeline, and hopefully stop many of the poorer ones from coming to market. One of the biggest problems in the Internet sector in the last quarter has been the absolute flood of new offerings, and frankly the quality of many has gone from bad to worse. The challenge here if you are a Net investor (as I am) is to sort the wheat from the chaff. In other words to separate the good Net companies that have a chance to grow into their valuations over the next five-ten years, from the other Net companies which are headed for the scrap heap. How do you do this? Well, the canslim ratings are a good screen. Then do a lot of fundamental research. Next, realize that these stocks will probably not have leisurely cup and handle formations, so you will have to look at other kinds of technical analysis to help with timing. Finally, realize that you are buying an infant stock that is going to have very big stumbles along the way. Personally, my own trading accounts are 100% cash right now. When will I start buying in again? Only when the rest of the market has moved lower, and when bull sentiment numbers come back to reality. Walter Stock Oakville, ONT, Canada - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: musicant@pacbell.net (Dan Musicant) Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] On "M" and corrections/rotations Date: 28 May 1999 03:13:54 GMT On Thu, 27 May 1999 15:34:20 -0400, you wrote: :>The long awaited "correction" or "bursting of the bubble" of :>the internut stocks is finally occurring, much to the relief :>of their shorters. : :Hi Tom, : :Agree that a correction in the Nets is occurring. :Unfortunately for those who tried to make a living :shorting the Net stocks over the last two years, :well, many of them are now "pursuing other :career opportunities" as they say. : :I think that a lot of the selling in the Nets was from longs :locking in their profits as opposed to short-selling. :I know I locked in several weeks ago when I sold my DCLK. :Shorting the Net is still a very dangerous business :as yesterday's quick rally showed. No kidding. I don't think I have tried shorting the Net stocks yet. Correction, I made a few bucks shorting MSPG at one point. I know that a lot of people have done it and lost their shirts. Still, one could have made a lot of money shorting them lately, as I have ruefully noted. However, your timing would have to be very good, and you would have to be absolutely on your toes. If you had these bases covered, you could do very well indeed. Same is true for any correction and any volatile sector, e.g. the tech stocks in general. : :I think the key is with the new Internet IPO's however. :Yesterday five Internet IPO's took place. :Two closed higher. The shock is that one Net IPO closed :essentially unchanged, and that two more closed lower : :Juno Online Services (JWEB:Nasdaq) a low-cost Internet :service provider with free email, closed down 10.6%, at 11 5/8, :and ZipLink (ZIPL:Nasdaq) closed down 11.6%, at 12 3/8. : :This is a disaster for those two stocks... they are "broken" :IPO's in Wall Street parlance.. :Most broken IPO's take a year or more to recover back to :their offering price, and many don't recover at all - ever. It's bad luck for any Net IPO that came out this week. It is something of a crapshoot, because the IPO's seem to be planned in advance, and it it happens to coincide with a downturn, you get BURNED. : :This will give pause to the many IPO's still in the pipeline, :and hopefully stop many of the poorer ones from :coming to market. :One of the biggest problems in the Internet sector in the last :quarter has been the absolute flood of new offerings, and :frankly the quality of many has gone from bad to worse. IPO's dried up very considerable in the correction over the summer of 1998. : :The challenge here if you are a Net investor (as I am) :is to sort the wheat from the chaff. In other words to separate :the good Net companies that have a chance to grow into their :valuations over the next five-ten years, from the :other Net companies which are headed for the scrap heap. : :How do you do this? Well, the canslim ratings are a good :screen. Then do a lot of fundamental research. Next, :realize that these stocks will probably not have leisurely :cup and handle formations, so you will have to look at other :kinds of technical analysis to help with timing. Finally, realize :that you are buying an infant stock that is going to have :very big stumbles along the way. It's no secret that the strongest Net stocks are AOL, YHOO, AMZN, EBAY, ATHM (perhaps). Of these, only ATHM and AMZN have no profits at this time.=20 : :Personally, my own trading accounts are 100% cash right now. :When will I start buying in again? Only when the rest of the market :has moved lower, and when bull sentiment numbers come back :to reality. : :Walter Stock :Oakville, ONT, Canada I too am 100% cash. I think you can definitely make money daytrading in this environment, but you need those moments of clarity and the patience to let them come to you. Dan - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] On "M" and corrections/rotations Date: 28 May 1999 01:11:06 -0400 Walter, I agree, I think the net correction comes from straight selling substantially heavier than net buying (from either shorts covering or from long positions). While there are undoubtedly some shorting going on, these stocks went so far over any rational valuations that I have little doubt many shorters along the way were wiped out. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html -----Original Message----- >The long awaited "correction" or "bursting of the bubble" of >the internut stocks is finally occurring, much to the relief >of their shorters. Hi Tom, Agree that a correction in the Nets is occurring. Unfortunately for those who tried to make a living shorting the Net stocks over the last two years, well, many of them are now "pursuing other career opportunities" as they say. I think that a lot of the selling in the Nets was from longs locking in their profits as opposed to short-selling. - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Pitbull (was Re: [CANSLIM] Re: Shorting Stocks/Puts) Date: 28 May 1999 01:33:42 -0400 Bill, I believe you may have previously been asked, if so I will renew the request. Would you please introduce yourself, and tell us what, if any, connection you have with The Pitbull? Also, are you a licensed member of the securities industry? Thanks, Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html -----Original Message----- canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com We use a mechanical shorting system that uses some of the canslim rankings to identify stocks that have climbed 400% or more over the last 52 weeks and are beginning to fail. This system works in bull or bear markets. Read more at the address below: http://www.pitbull.com - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Walter Stock Subject: [CANSLIM] Cyclicals and Talking Heads Date: 28 May 1999 16:37:50 -0400 Speaking about bubbles bursting, the cyclicals look to be joining the Nets. If you pull up a weekly chart of the Morgan Stanley Cyclical Index (CYC), you will see that after topping out in the week of May 10-14, that they are now in a nose-dive. Do you remember (back in April) that parade of money managers, institutional gurus, so-called strategists, and various other talking heads on CNBC, and how they crowed about how cyclicals were going to be the hot investment through the rest of this year and into the year 2000? Well it seems that they are not buying them anymore. Seems that their positions were built back in March. Seems that many of them are doing big selling into the recent strength. I wonder what some of these gracious folks will tell us to buy next? I'm sure they will tell us.... In about six weeks. Once they are finished buying it. The cyclicals are non-Canslim almost by definition. Glad I never bought any. If you want to play them, you can look at the technicals. Presently they are rolling over and asking for a quick exit. Walter Stock Oakville, Ontario, Canada - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Bruce Perry Subject: [CANSLIM] ETEK Date: 28 May 1999 14:56:41 -0700 E-Tek Dynamics, Inc. (NASD:ETEK) 98/74/A/A/E according to today's IBD NASDAQ stock listings. Been around for several years, but just went public in 12/98. Designs and manufacturs fibreoptic infrastructure (components). Makes wave division multiplexers for jamming 'boo coo' extra communications bandwidth into those tiny pieces of glass fiber. I just can't think of any practical use for anything like that... Can you folks? ;> ;> Have to check my news notes, but it seems like they took on a new CEO about a year back. Also, just acquired a Canadian company with a similar line of business. Not enough chart info to see any patterns yet, but It's been on the IBD Weekend Review list within the last few weeks. Fell out after its share priced dipped from a 52-week high of a bit over $51 a couple of weeks back, to the low $30s. Seems like it's share price is trying to claw its way back to respectibility, even though it looks to be under heavy distribution. I think it was under heavy accumulation not too long ago!? Best CANSLIM criteria of all -- E-Tek's campus is just down the road from where I live! Thoughts? - Bruce - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: musicant@pacbell.net (Dan Musicant) Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Cyclicals and Talking Heads Date: 28 May 1999 21:56:49 GMT On Fri, 28 May 1999 16:37:50 -0400, you wrote: :Speaking about bubbles bursting, the cyclicals look :to be joining the Nets. If you pull up a weekly chart of the :Morgan Stanley Cyclical Index (CYC), you will see that :after topping out in the week of May 10-14, :that they are now in a nose-dive. : :Do you remember (back in April) that parade :of money managers, institutional gurus, so-called strategists, :and various other talking heads on CNBC, :and how they crowed about how cyclicals were :going to be the hot investment through the rest :of this year and into the year 2000? : :Well it seems that they are not buying them anymore. :Seems that their positions were built back in March. :Seems that many of them are doing big selling :into the recent strength. : :I wonder what some of these gracious folks :will tell us to buy next? :I'm sure they will tell us.... In about six weeks. :Once they are finished buying it. : :The cyclicals are non-Canslim almost by definition. :Glad I never bought any. : :If you want to play them, you can look at the :technicals. Presently they are rolling over and :asking for a quick exit. : :Walter Stock :Oakville, Ontario, Canada I too *never got around to buying* the cyclicals in the last few months. I heard it said a few weeks ago that they had enjoyed a substantial runup already and that it was too late to get in on it. From that point forward I heard nothing to prompt me to dust off my microscope and examine them. However, the last few days I did hear some things from *analysts* suggesting *paper*, Alcoa, small caps, midcaps, etc., etc. I will try to do my homework before I plunk down my money... Dan Dan - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Connie Mack Rea Subject: [CANSLIM] Nice little site. Date: 28 May 1999 19:51:52 -0400 A nice little site for Canslim is this one. It has a 30-day free trial sans the many questions and credit card sign up. My faculty stock group has pulled a couple of nice stocks from the site: http://www.reesegroup.com/cs.asp Connie Mack. - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Peter Newell Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Shorting the Market Date: 26 May 1999 18:41:53 -0400 Johan, Just trying to point out the math I was using a 50% drop because it sounded like a fair approach, best you can do is 100%. Sounds like a good debate, I like shorting stocks but you need to be quick and do it at the right time. Lets $100 plus 50% = 150 $150 plus 50% = 225 I'd like to hear more opinions. Peter Newell -----Original Message----- >At 05:39 PM 5/26/99 -0700, you wrote: >>There are some shorters in here. Basically, and its in the HTMMIS book you >>short the high-fliers that start breaking down below base on volume. >> >>By the way, I've made some quick 10-30% profits this way BUT every one of >>those stocks has at least doubled in the next rally so be careful. One >>problem with shorting is this if a stock gets cut in half and then cut in >>half again you have a 75% profit. If a stock doubles and then doubles again >>you have a 400% profit. > >Peter, > >That might not be a fair equation. > >If a stock goes up 50% and than goes up another 50%, you have a 75% profit. >Just as when a stock gets cut in half (50%) and then gets cut in half again >(another 50%), you get a 75% profit. > >Correct? > >> >> >>Peter Newell >>-----Original Message----- >>From: Bruce Perry >>To: canslim@xmission.com >>Date: Wednesday, May 26, 1999 2:17 PM >>Subject: [CANSLIM] Shorting the Market >> >> >>>Has anyone thought about (or implemented) a reverse CANSLIM strategy >>designed to attempt to go short in bear markets? >>> >>>- Bruce >>> >>> >>> >>>- >>> >>> >> >> >>- >> >> > >Johan > > > > > > >- > > - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: musicant@pacbell.net (Dan Musicant) Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Shorting the Market Date: 29 May 1999 03:49:17 GMT On Wed, 26 May 1999 18:41:53 -0400, you wrote: :Johan, : :Just trying to point out the math I was using a 50% drop because it = sounded :like a fair approach, best you can do is 100%. : :Sounds like a good debate, I like shorting stocks but you need to be = quick :and do it at the right time. : :Lets $100 plus 50% =3D 150 : $150 plus 50% =3D 225 : :I'd like to hear more opinions. : :Peter Newell : Uh, yea. To explain it again... If you short stock xyz when it is at $90, by say *selling* 100 shares that you don't own, you have established a short position of $9000. The very most money you can make on this is $9000, if the stock goes bust! If the stock goes down to $30, and you then cover your short (*buy* it at this point), it will cost you 30 x 100 to cover, =3D $3000, and you have made a profit of $6000. That's how shorting works. However, if it goes up instead of down, it will cost you more to cover the short than you *made* on the original sell, and you will lose that amount (the difference). That's how shorting *goes wrong*, if you will. Naturally, you could lose a lot more shorting than you could possibly gain, but in practice you don't let things get that out of hand. You set stops (mental or actual) that set the maximum amount you are willing to risk when you lay out your short. Dan - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: [CANSLIM] TMBS Date: 29 May 1999 09:00:12 -0400 Timberline Software, with a good performance on Friday, may finally be resuming some of its CANSLIM character. RS is still only 81, but has been rising for over a month. EPS has remained at 99, and it has continued to beat expectations. Despite Friday being the second lightest volume day for the year, it managed to slightly exceed its ADV. Warning: it's a small cap, and more volatile. Disclosure: I have owned it for some time now. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] ETEK Date: 29 May 1999 09:14:01 -0400 DGO's current chart presents slightly different ratings on this one: RS 79; EPS 98; A/D of E; Timeliness of C; GRS of 96; SMR of B. Chart suggests a further decline to me, or at best a basing at these prices. It has bottomed out after over a 30% fall at a logical point (look at the trading range activity from mid Feb thru the end of March). And it will encounter resistance from recent trading all the way thru 50. At a minimum, I would want to see it clear thru the most recent consolidation just under 45. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html -----Original Message----- E-Tek Dynamics, Inc. (NASD:ETEK) 98/74/A/A/E according to today's IBD NASDAQ stock listings. Been around for several years, but just went public in 12/98. Designs and manufacturs fibreoptic infrastructure (components). Makes wave division multiplexers for jamming 'boo coo' extra communications bandwidth into those tiny pieces of glass fiber. I just can't think of any practical use for anything like that... Can you folks? ;> ;> Have to check my news notes, but it seems like they took on a new CEO about a year back. Also, just acquired a Canadian company with a similar line of business. Not enough chart info to see any patterns yet, but It's been on the IBD Weekend Review list within the last few weeks. Fell out after its share priced dipped from a 52-week high of a bit over $51 a couple of weeks back, to the low $30s. Seems like it's share price is trying to claw its way back to respectibility, even though it looks to be under heavy distribution. I think it was under heavy accumulation not too long ago!? Best CANSLIM criteria of all -- E-Tek's campus is just down the road from where I live! Thoughts? - Bruce - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: canslim@email.com Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Shorting the Market Date: 29 May 1999 13:38:23 -0400 (EDT) Does not make sense: If a stock is $100, goes up 50%= $150 Goes up another 50%=$225 That is not 75% > That might not be a fair equation. > > If a stock goes up 50% and than goes up another 50%, you have a 75% profit. > Just as when a stock gets cut in half (50%) and then gets cut in half again > (another 50%), you get a 75% profit. > > Correct? > Johan FREE! The World's Best Email Address @email.com Reserve your name now at http://www.email.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Dr Jim and JoEllen Kiser" Subject: [CANSLIM] Pit Bull Date: 29 May 1999 17:04:49 -0500 I was a subscriber to the PITBULL and I believe that Bill Ford is the son of the developer of the PITBULL trading strategy. I think he is trying to develope a website that will be offered to subscribers based on cup and handle formations. Hope this helps Jim Kiser - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: DeFeNdEr1@webtv.net Subject: [CANSLIM] Intro: Dan Sea Date: 30 May 1999 03:06:51 -0500 (CDT) Hello. My name is Dannie Sea and I am pleased to join your group. I happened upon your list through a CAN SLIM message board on The Motley Fool. I have been studing the CAN SLIM method of investing for a few months but haven't gotten the hang of it yet, so I am hoping to learn a lot from the group. In short, pleased to meat ya! :^) - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Johan Van Houtven Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Shorting the Market Date: 30 May 1999 12:30:05 +0200 At 01:38 PM 5/29/99 -0400, you wrote: > >Does not make sense: >If a stock is $100, goes up 50%= $150 And you have a 50$ profit. >Goes up another 50%=$225 If your net profit goes up 50% again, you get a 75$ or 75% profit. > >That is not 75% Depends on what you are looking at. >> That might not be a fair equation. >> >> If a stock goes up 50% and than goes up another 50%, you have a 75% profit. >> Just as when a stock gets cut in half (50%) and then gets cut in half again >> (another 50%), you get a 75% profit. >> >> Correct? > >> Johan > > >----------------------------------------------- >FREE! The World's Best Email Address @email.com >Reserve your name now at http://www.email.com > > > >- > > Johan - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Intro: Dan Sea Date: 30 May 1999 08:39:11 -0400 Welcome to the group, Dannie If you haven't already read Wm O'Neil's book, it's a good place to start, along with the more recent 26 week series on CANSLIM that was in IBD. You can still read it at http://ibd.infostreet.com/won/ tho it's a good idea to save it to disk both so you'll have it handy as well as in case they take it off the website. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html -----Original Message----- Hello. My name is Dannie Sea and I am pleased to join your group. I happened upon your list through a CAN SLIM message board on The Motley Fool. I have been studing the CAN SLIM method of investing for a few months but haven't gotten the hang of it yet, so I am hoping to learn a lot from the group. In short, pleased to meat ya! :^) - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: canslim@email.com Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Intro: Dan Sea Date: 30 May 1999 06:10:33 -0400 (EDT) Welcome to the group Dan. You will learn a lot from the guru's of canslim on this list and all will welcome your questions and input. ---- On May 30 DeFeNdEr1@webtv.net wrote: > Hello. My name is Dannie Sea and I am pleased to join your group. I > happened upon your list through a CAN SLIM message board on The Motley > Fool. I have been studing the CAN SLIM method of investing for a few > months but haven't gotten the hang of it yet, so I am hoping to learn a > lot from the group. > > In short, pleased to meat ya! :^) > > > - > FREE! The World's Best Email Address @email.com Reserve your name now at http://www.email.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: canslim@email.com Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Intro: Dan Sea Date: 30 May 1999 06:10:33 -0400 (EDT) Welcome to the group Dan. You will learn a lot from the guru's of canslim on this list and all will welcome your questions and input. ---- On May 30 DeFeNdEr1@webtv.net wrote: > Hello. My name is Dannie Sea and I am pleased to join your group. I > happened upon your list through a CAN SLIM message board on The Motley > Fool. I have been studing the CAN SLIM method of investing for a few > months but haven't gotten the hang of it yet, so I am hoping to learn a > lot from the group. > > In short, pleased to meat ya! :^) > > > - > FREE! The World's Best Email Address @email.com Reserve your name now at http://www.email.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Hugh Fader Subject: [CANSLIM] Intro: Hugh Fader Date: 30 May 1999 10:30:20 -0400 Hello, I am Hugh Fader, a 40-year-old computer engineer from Royal Oak, MI. I have been "lurking" for several months reading the digests of this group and have learned a lot. I now want to become more active in the group. I have been using CANSLIM to invest since last fall with moderate success. One of the biggest problems I have is hitting the entry point correctly on a buy. It seems almost impossible to do this consistently without monitoring your watchlist minute-by-minute. I am interested in learning more about how people with day jobs handle this. Looking forward to getting to know you all better. Hugh - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Intro: Hugh Fader Date: 30 May 1999 11:20:23 -0400 Hi Hugh, First, welcome to the group and thanks for the intro. I imagine summer is finally starting to arrive in your area (I spent four years in The Soo, where there were only two seasons: winter and the 4th of July). Trying to get the entry point exact, or even close, is very difficult if you have a day job. On the ones where I succeeded, it occurred by looking at the chart that morning and making a buy decision; then entering a limit buy order. If I could be sure of the time to monitor trading during the day, I would not use limit orders nor enter an order prior to 9:45 or so, but that's no longer an option the way my job is going. Because I am only trading small cap stocks, which tend to be both volatile and relatively thinly traded, I have also resorted to buying while still in the base, and gambling on an eventual breakout. At least then I can set a downside stop which is also relative to the base as well as my entry point. I still miss more than I catch, but that's OK, there's always another one waiting in the wings. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html -----Original Message----- Hello, I am Hugh Fader, a 40-year-old computer engineer from Royal Oak, MI. I have been "lurking" for several months reading the digests of this group and have learned a lot. I now want to become more active in the group. I have been using CANSLIM to invest since last fall with moderate success. One of the biggest problems I have is hitting the entry point correctly on a buy. It seems almost impossible to do this consistently without monitoring your watchlist minute-by-minute. I am interested in learning more about how people with day jobs handle this. Looking forward to getting to know you all better. Hugh - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Marc Laniado" Subject: [CANSLIM] Market direction, basing, breaking, trending stocks etc Date: 30 May 1999 17:23:18 +0100 Dear Tom and others, Do you think that the market will continue to rise over the next few months despite the recent couple of weeks? Don't we need a day up on big volume for the general market averages before we can restart? Tom, you say that you pick stocks that are in a base - so would you consider LGTO that was declining but seems to be rising and has broken its intermediate trend line down? It has many favourable characteristics and was a great stock before? I though these other stocks were worth considering if we believe the market is ok. They are not perfect by any stretch of the imagination. BREAKOUTS from cups+/- handles CLFY UIS VISX gapped down and seems to be rising again???do we buy now?? I don't know the details of this but there was a court case I think causing problems BASING AEOS PSUN KIDE seems to be at its support level TIF UNPH making cup +/-handle and may break out FDS TTIL CTXS TMBS Trending up BBOX EUSA XETA RSC PWR SPW MSS PROX (in a channel) SCNYB KSWS (?BLOW OFF) AGH EWB FSRV AMGN seems to be bottoming out. Just some ideas! Don't feel compelled to comment on all of them - there are rather many!! Best wishes, Marc Marc E Laniado marclaniado@msn.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Hugh Fader Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Intro: Hugh Fader Date: 30 May 1999 13:23:04 -0400 Tom, Yes, we have had a real spring here and are now getting an early taste of summer. I recently tried buying FDS in anticipation of a breakout and was stopped out. Below was my assessment on 5/18 when I decided to buy. I would be interested in any comments on my reasoning and why this may have not been such a good buy. ----- Thinking seriously about buying FDS in anticipation of a breakout. It is currently at 46.88 on the handle of a perfect CWH with low volume, 13% off its high of 54 and just above the 50 MA of 45. It has tested the 50 MA twice in the past 6 weeks. Current: Up 42% Annual: 47% growth rate New: nothing except exceptional earnings. Anticipating a new high on breakout. Supply: 15M shares 39% held by mgt Leadership: GRS 80, Comml Services Misc ranked 42nd down from 25th three months ago Institutional: 21% held by funds Market: Some jitters due to FOMC meeting. Markets down slightly on slightly higher volume today. I will buy 1/3 of a position tomorrow and sell if it falls below the 50 MA. Will buy 1/3 more on a breakout and 1/3 more on a pullback. ---- Tom Worley wrote: > Hi Hugh, > > First, welcome to the group and thanks for the intro. I > imagine summer is finally starting to arrive in your area (I > spent four years in The Soo, where there were only two > seasons: winter and the 4th of July). > > Trying to get the entry point exact, or even close, is very > difficult if you have a day job. On the ones where I > succeeded, it occurred by looking at the chart that morning > and making a buy decision; then entering a limit buy order. > If I could be sure of the time to monitor trading during the > day, I would not use limit orders nor enter an order prior > to 9:45 or so, but that's no longer an option the way my job > is going. > > Because I am only trading small cap stocks, which tend to be > both volatile and relatively thinly traded, I have also > resorted to buying while still in the base, and gambling on > an eventual breakout. At least then I can set a downside > stop which is also relative to the base as well as my entry > point. > > I still miss more than I catch, but that's OK, there's > always another one waiting in the wings. > > Tom Worley > stkguru@netside.net > chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 > get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html > > -----Original Message----- > From: Hugh Fader > To: canslim@xmission.com > Date: Sunday, May 30, 1999 10:30 AM > Subject: [CANSLIM] Intro: Hugh Fader > > Hello, > > I am Hugh Fader, a 40-year-old computer engineer from Royal > Oak, > MI. I have been "lurking" for several months reading the > digests > of this group and have learned a lot. I now want to become > more > active in the group. > > I have been using CANSLIM to invest since last fall with > moderate > success. One of the biggest problems I have is hitting the > entry > point correctly on a buy. It seems almost impossible to do > this > consistently without monitoring your watchlist > minute-by-minute. > I am interested in learning more about how people with day > jobs > handle this. > > Looking forward to getting to know you all better. > > Hugh > > - > > - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: canslim@email.com Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Intro: Hugh Fader Date: 31 May 1999 00:00:33 -0400 (EDT) Welcome Hugh to the wonderful group of canslim. Royal Oaks is a wonderful place and I lived there close to the Detroit Zoo from 1980-1982 prior to the I-696 thru the town. I still go there to visit sometimes. Enjoy and profit from the wonderful gurus on the list. Welcome again. ---- On May 30 "Tom Worley" wrote: > Hi Hugh, > > First, welcome to the group and thanks for the intro. I > imagine summer is finally starting to arrive in your area (I > spent four years in The Soo, where there were only two > seasons: winter and the 4th of July). > > Trying to get the entry point exact, or even close, is very > difficult if you have a day job. On the ones where I > succeeded, it occurred by looking at the chart that morning > and making a buy decision; then entering a limit buy order. > If I could be sure of the time to monitor trading during the > day, I would not use limit orders nor enter an order prior > to 9:45 or so, but that's no longer an option the way my job > is going. > > Because I am only trading small cap stocks, which tend to be > both volatile and relatively thinly traded, I have also > resorted to buying while still in the base, and gambling on > an eventual breakout. At least then I can set a downside > stop which is also relative to the base as well as my entry > point. > > I still miss more than I catch, but that's OK, there's > always another one waiting in the wings. > > Tom Worley > stkguru@netside.net > chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 > get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html > > > -----Original Message----- > From: Hugh Fader > To: canslim@xmission.com > Date: Sunday, May 30, 1999 10:30 AM > Subject: [CANSLIM] Intro: Hugh Fader > > > Hello, > > I am Hugh Fader, a 40-year-old computer engineer from Royal > Oak, > MI. I have been "lurking" for several months reading the > digests > of this group and have learned a lot. I now want to become > more > active in the group. > > I have been using CANSLIM to invest since last fall with > moderate > success. One of the biggest problems I have is hitting the > entry > point correctly on a buy. It seems almost impossible to do > this > consistently without monitoring your watchlist > minute-by-minute. > I am interested in learning more about how people with day > jobs > handle this. > > Looking forward to getting to know you all better. > > Hugh > > > - > > > > - > FREE! The World's Best Email Address @email.com Reserve your name now at http://www.email.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Intro: Hugh Fader Date: 31 May 1999 06:15:27 -0400 Hi Hugh, As far as the c&h goes, the cup is deeper than I prefer. Best is about 25% of the prior gain, this looks more like 50% or so. The handle began to form lower than the left edge of the cup, which is ok, but it then began to droop too much and on light volume, suggesting too much selling pressure to sustain it. By the time you bot it, the handle had already drooped over 10% from where it started to form. Glad to see you are keeping a diary, that's the best way to learn and not repeat mistakes. You don't mention, other than "anticipating a breakout" why you bot just when you did. Ideally, when I buy in a base (or handle), I look for a tight base, with the price being maintained very stable, while volume dropped substantially. That would seem to be missing here. Otherwise tho, a very good CANSLIIM stock, and probably worth continuing to watch. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html -----Original Message----- Tom, Yes, we have had a real spring here and are now getting an early taste of summer. I recently tried buying FDS in anticipation of a breakout and was stopped out. Below was my assessment on 5/18 when I decided to buy. I would be interested in any comments on my reasoning and why this may have not been such a good buy. ----- Thinking seriously about buying FDS in anticipation of a breakout. It is currently at 46.88 on the handle of a perfect CWH with low volume, 13% off its high of 54 and just above the 50 MA of 45. It has tested the 50 MA twice in the past 6 weeks. Current: Up 42% Annual: 47% growth rate New: nothing except exceptional earnings. Anticipating a new high on breakout. Supply: 15M shares 39% held by mgt Leadership: GRS 80, Comml Services Misc ranked 42nd down from 25th three months ago Institutional: 21% held by funds Market: Some jitters due to FOMC meeting. Markets down slightly on slightly higher volume today. I will buy 1/3 of a position tomorrow and sell if it falls below the 50 MA. Will buy 1/3 more on a breakout and 1/3 more on a pullback. ---- - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: [CANSLIM] DGO List Date: 31 May 1999 07:10:19 -0400 Here's the ones from DGO's at or near new highs list that got a margin comment from me. DY - basing CNSP - basing CTS - base, potential breakout IBI - LLUR NVR - weak cup and handle NATI - base DGX - LLUR TECUA - base SPW - more a funnel than a cup ATSN - base? ECL - base Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Market direction, basing, breaking, trending stocks etc Date: 31 May 1999 07:32:38 -0400 Marc, So far this year, LGTO's chart is marked with lower highs and lower lows. Its current rise is notable for decreasing volume, making it highly suspect to me, at least till it can break thru 59.625 (it's last "high") and on volume. CLFY - if it is a cup, it's too deep, and handle too short, to trust the breakout. May already be too extended at this point. VISX - wouldn't consider until it establishes a base, and gets further away from recent higher resistance trading. Also needs to recover above the 50DMA. KIDE - another failed breakout, would want to see if it resumes prior basing before considering FDS - as I previously posted on this one, won't repeat other than I don't like the handle, and would question whether it's now a c&h TTIL - on my watch list for nearly two months, just waiting CTXS - got some possibilities, worth watching TMBS - already own, RS and u/d ratio both increasing Of the stocks "Trending Up", most appear to be in a staricase pattern, and need to base more. Only one or two might fall into the LLUR pattern, where price improvement has been smooth and steady without volatility. Most look worth watching, but wouldn't buy them without a base. SCNYB also looks like a blowoff top. AGH may be questionable as its earnings have increased while sales have dropped (besides, its on AMEX, an automatic negative despite how MSS has done). Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html -----Original Message----- trending stocks etc Dear Tom and others, Do you think that the market will continue to rise over the next few months despite the recent couple of weeks? Don't we need a day up on big volume for the general market averages before we can restart? Tom, you say that you pick stocks that are in a base - so would you consider LGTO that was declining but seems to be rising and has broken its intermediate trend line down? It has many favourable characteristics and was a great stock before? I though these other stocks were worth considering if we believe the market is ok. They are not perfect by any stretch of the imagination. BREAKOUTS from cups+/- handles CLFY UIS VISX gapped down and seems to be rising again???do we buy now?? I don't know the details of this but there was a court case I think causing problems BASING AEOS PSUN KIDE seems to be at its support level TIF UNPH making cup +/-handle and may break out FDS TTIL CTXS TMBS Trending up BBOX EUSA XETA RSC PWR SPW MSS PROX (in a channel) SCNYB KSWS (?BLOW OFF) AGH EWB FSRV AMGN seems to be bottoming out. Just some ideas! Don't feel compelled to comment on all of them - there are rather many!! Best wishes, Marc Marc E Laniado marclaniado@msn.com - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Marc Laniado" Subject: [CANSLIM] ideas Date: 31 May 1999 13:09:12 +0100 Dear Tom, Thanks for your response! Marc Marc E Laniado marclaniado@msn.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: [CANSLIM] Nice Base - AFWY Date: 31 May 1999 08:20:46 -0400 One I've had on my watch list for some time, and still hasn't done anything, is worth watching. It's American Freightways (AFWY). Its EPS barely fails the EPS of 80+ test at 79, however this is due to its earnings peaking in 1994 at 89 cents, then falling for the next two years before beginning to recover. For 1998, it was back to 87 cents, with $1.20 forecast for the current year (up 38%) and $1.40 for year 2000 (up 17%). ROE is also low at 17% because of this, however A/D and Timeliness are both A, and u/d ratio is 2.2. Equally important is a nice tight base. Volume has been drying up nicely, without any deterioration in price. Management has a good stake at 36% while funds own 10% of the remaining float. The downside is that it's now going to be up against much tougher quarters for comparison purposes unless its sales increase sharply. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Hugh Fader Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Intro: Hugh Fader Date: 31 May 1999 09:38:19 -0400 Tom, Thanks for the feedback. I bought when I did because that's when I discovered the stock. I noticed the low volume in the handle starting in early May. I see so many stocks with what looks like a cup with handle until you look at volume. Regarding the handle, I was following one of O'Neil's rules that I read somewhere which said the midpoint of the handle should be above the midpoint of the cup. Here is my calculation: Cup: hi 54, lo 35.5, midpoint 44.75 Handle: hi 51, lo 44, midpoint 47.5 Is this calculation valid? In reviewing the graph, maybe I was wrong in saying this is a "perfect CWH." Most of the examples I have seen show the beginning of the handle much closer to the peak of the cup than FDS has. I agree that the price pattern in the handle is not very tight. Do you just visually look for a tight base or do you have some % variation rule of thumb? This stock is still on my watchlist. That's one thing I've learned. Don't just forget about a stock after you get stopped out. It could still come back and the stock doesn't remember whether or not you owned it in the past. Tom Worley wrote: > Hi Hugh, > > As far as the c&h goes, the cup is deeper than I prefer. > Best is about 25% of the prior gain, this looks more like > 50% or so. The handle began to form lower than the left edge > of the cup, which is ok, but it then began to droop too much > and on light volume, suggesting too much selling pressure to > sustain it. By the time you bot it, the handle had already > drooped over 10% from where it started to form. > > Glad to see you are keeping a diary, that's the best way to > learn and not repeat mistakes. You don't mention, other than > "anticipating a breakout" why you bot just when you did. > Ideally, when I buy in a base (or handle), I look for a > tight base, with the price being maintained very stable, > while volume dropped substantially. That would seem to be > missing here. Otherwise tho, a very good CANSLIIM stock, and > probably worth continuing to watch. > > Tom Worley > stkguru@netside.net > chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 > get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html > > -----Original Message----- > From: Hugh Fader > To: canslim@lists.xmission.com > Date: Sunday, May 30, 1999 1:23 PM > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Intro: Hugh Fader > > Tom, > > Yes, we have had a real spring here and are now getting an > early > taste of summer. > > I recently tried buying FDS in anticipation of a breakout > and was > stopped out. Below was my assessment on 5/18 when I decided > to > buy. I would be interested in any comments on my reasoning > and > why this may have not been such a good buy. > > ----- > Thinking seriously about buying FDS in anticipation of a > breakout. It is currently at 46.88 on the handle of a > perfect CWH > with low volume, 13% off its high of 54 and just above the > 50 MA > of 45. It has tested the 50 MA twice in the past 6 weeks. > > Current: Up 42% > Annual: 47% growth rate > New: nothing except exceptional earnings. Anticipating a new > high > on breakout. > Supply: 15M shares 39% held by mgt > Leadership: GRS 80, Comml Services Misc ranked 42nd down > from > 25th three months ago > Institutional: 21% held by funds > Market: Some jitters due to FOMC meeting. Markets down > slightly > on slightly higher volume today. > > I will buy 1/3 of a position tomorrow and sell if it falls > below > the 50 MA. Will buy 1/3 more on a breakout and 1/3 more on a > pullback. > ---- > > - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Peter Newell" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Market direction, basing, breaking, trending stocks etc Date: 31 May 1999 09:56:06 -0700 Marc, I agree need need to see a big volume up day, new highs hitting 175+. My stance right now is to hold off on new positions until a correction has occurred or the market continues its uptrend. Peter -----Original Message----- >Dear Tom and others, >Do you think that the market will continue to rise over the next few months >despite the recent couple of weeks? Don't we need a day up on big volume for >the general market averages before we can restart? > >Tom, you say that you pick stocks that are in a base - so would you consider >LGTO that was declining but seems to be rising and has broken its >intermediate trend line down? It has many favourable characteristics and was >a great stock before? > >I though these other stocks were worth considering if we believe the market >is ok. They are not perfect by any stretch of the imagination. > >BREAKOUTS from cups+/- handles >CLFY >UIS > >VISX gapped down and seems to be rising again???do we buy now?? I don't know >the details of this but there was a court case I think causing problems > >BASING >AEOS >PSUN >KIDE seems to be at its support level >TIF >UNPH > >making cup +/-handle and may break out >FDS >TTIL >CTXS >TMBS > >Trending up >BBOX >EUSA >XETA >RSC >PWR >SPW >MSS >PROX (in a channel) >SCNYB >KSWS (?BLOW OFF) >AGH >EWB >FSRV > >AMGN seems to be bottoming out. > >Just some ideas! Don't feel compelled to comment on all of them - there are >rather many!! >Best wishes, >Marc > >Marc E Laniado >marclaniado@msn.com > > > > > >- > > - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Hugh Fader Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Market direction, basing, breaking, trending stocks etc Date: 31 May 1999 11:18:18 -0400 Tom, TTIL is priced around 8. O'Neil says don't buy a stock below 15. Would you buy if this stock broke out to say 10? How do you decide when it is OK to violate this rule? Thanks. Tom Worley wrote: > Marc, > > So far this year, LGTO's chart is marked with lower highs > and lower lows. Its current rise is notable for decreasing > volume, making it highly suspect to me, at least till it can > break thru 59.625 (it's last "high") and on volume. > > CLFY - if it is a cup, it's too deep, and handle too short, > to trust the breakout. May already be too extended at this > point. > > VISX - wouldn't consider until it establishes a base, and > gets further away from recent higher resistance trading. > Also needs to recover above the 50DMA. > > KIDE - another failed breakout, would want to see if it > resumes prior basing before considering > > FDS - as I previously posted on this one, won't repeat other > than I don't like the handle, and would question whether > it's now a c&h > > TTIL - on my watch list for nearly two months, just waiting > > CTXS - got some possibilities, worth watching > > TMBS - already own, RS and u/d ratio both increasing > > Of the stocks "Trending Up", most appear to be in a > staricase pattern, and need to base more. Only one or two > might fall into the LLUR pattern, where price improvement > has been smooth and steady without volatility. Most look > worth watching, but wouldn't buy them without a base. SCNYB > also looks like a blowoff top. AGH may be questionable as > its earnings have increased while sales have dropped > (besides, its on AMEX, an automatic negative despite how MSS > has done). > > Tom Worley > stkguru@netside.net > chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 > get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html > > -----Original Message----- > From: Marc Laniado > To: CANSLIM DISCUSSION LIST > Date: Sunday, May 30, 1999 1:23 PM > Subject: [CANSLIM] Market direction, basing, breaking, > trending stocks etc > > Dear Tom and others, > Do you think that the market will continue to rise over the > next few months > despite the recent couple of weeks? Don't we need a day up > on big volume for > the general market averages before we can restart? > > Tom, you say that you pick stocks that are in a base - so > would you consider > LGTO that was declining but seems to be rising and has > broken its > intermediate trend line down? It has many favourable > characteristics and was > a great stock before? > > I though these other stocks were worth considering if we > believe the market > is ok. They are not perfect by any stretch of the > imagination. > > BREAKOUTS from cups+/- handles > CLFY > UIS > > VISX gapped down and seems to be rising again???do we buy > now?? I don't know > the details of this but there was a court case I think > causing problems > > BASING > AEOS > PSUN > KIDE seems to be at its support level > TIF > UNPH > > making cup +/-handle and may break out > FDS > TTIL > CTXS > TMBS > > Trending up > BBOX > EUSA > XETA > RSC > PWR > SPW > MSS > PROX (in a channel) > SCNYB > KSWS (?BLOW OFF) > AGH > EWB > FSRV > > AMGN seems to be bottoming out. > > Just some ideas! Don't feel compelled to comment on all of > them - there are > rather many!! > Best wishes, > Marc > > Marc E Laniado > marclaniado@msn.com > > - > > - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Dave Squires Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Intro: Hugh Fader Date: 31 May 1999 10:28:12 -0500 Hugh, Your analysis of the stock and plan to scale in was excellent! The key to buying in the handle is two fold. First, you have to be able to pick exceptional cup and handle patterns. Second, you have to be able to read the ever so tricky 'M' right. As most CS'ers know 'M' is the key to profits. After a follow through there is often a very low risk period where the market is in a strong up trend. This is the safest time to buy in the handle. After the strong up trend, (the easy money is made then) the market gets more selective and I would suggest you only buy breakouts. Finally, the choppy/toppy market starts and this is definitely not a time to be buying in the handle. When the market is questionable, as it was on 5-18, you can't buy in the handle because a breakout is much less likely. The best thing to do is to let the stock breakout and show you it is strong in the face of a choppy market.......then buy the pullback. If you want a great example of this look at POWI. This stock broke out on heavy volume just before earnings only to have a light volume retest of the base after the breakout. The stock was showing clear bullish price activity in the face of a falling market. As a general rule I would suggest you only buy in the handle in the first 1 1/2 months following a market follow through. After you buy give the stock 7-10 days to move out of the base. If it doesn't breakout then move on to a new stock. Furthermore, only buy a partial position in the handle. The other criteria for buying in the handle is proper stock selection. One very important thing here is a major volume contraction in the handle and a volatility contraction. FDS had both of these and I was waiting to buy just like you. After the 4/29 shakeout volatility contracted and volume practically went to nothing. This stock was dying to breakout but Mr. Market had other plans! Anyway, it seems you don't have any trouble identifying exceptional C&H patterns. As far as buying at the right time while having a day job...... this is a problem. However, buying breakouts isn't all that great anymore. Big O has made buying breakouts so mainstream that there is almost always a pullback from the "crowd buying frenzy". I would suggest that you be more of a pullback buyer if you can't monitor the stock all day. The market is giving these opportunities more and more lately. A good rule of thumb might go like this. In the first 1-1/2 months after a follow through you could buy breakouts (and in the handle as mentioned above) using buy stops and from then on enter on the pullback. I'm not suggesting that all stocks will pullback and test their base but they will often come off enough for a low risk entry. Good Trading, DSquires Hugh Fader wrote: > > Tom, > > Yes, we have had a real spring here and are now getting an early > taste of summer. > > I recently tried buying FDS in anticipation of a breakout and was > stopped out. Below was my assessment on 5/18 when I decided to > buy. I would be interested in any comments on my reasoning and > why this may have not been such a good buy. > > ----- > Thinking seriously about buying FDS in anticipation of a > breakout. It is currently at 46.88 on the handle of a perfect CWH > with low volume, 13% off its high of 54 and just above the 50 MA > of 45. It has tested the 50 MA twice in the past 6 weeks. > > Current: Up 42% > Annual: 47% growth rate > New: nothing except exceptional earnings. Anticipating a new high > on breakout. > Supply: 15M shares 39% held by mgt > Leadership: GRS 80, Comml Services Misc ranked 42nd down from > 25th three months ago > Institutional: 21% held by funds > Market: Some jitters due to FOMC meeting. Markets down slightly > on slightly higher volume today. > > I will buy 1/3 of a position tomorrow and sell if it falls below > the 50 MA. Will buy 1/3 more on a breakout and 1/3 more on a > pullback. > ---- > > Tom Worley wrote: > > > Hi Hugh, > > > > First, welcome to the group and thanks for the intro. I > > imagine summer is finally starting to arrive in your area (I > > spent four years in The Soo, where there were only two > > seasons: winter and the 4th of July). > > > > Trying to get the entry point exact, or even close, is very > > difficult if you have a day job. On the ones where I > > succeeded, it occurred by looking at the chart that morning > > and making a buy decision; then entering a limit buy order. > > If I could be sure of the time to monitor trading during the > > day, I would not use limit orders nor enter an order prior > > to 9:45 or so, but that's no longer an option the way my job > > is going. > > > > Because I am only trading small cap stocks, which tend to be > > both volatile and relatively thinly traded, I have also > > resorted to buying while still in the base, and gambling on > > an eventual breakout. At least then I can set a downside > > stop which is also relative to the base as well as my entry > > point. > > > > I still miss more than I catch, but that's OK, there's > > always another one waiting in the wings. > > > > Tom Worley > > stkguru@netside.net > > chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 > > get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html > > > > -----Original Message----- > > From: Hugh Fader > > To: canslim@xmission.com > > Date: Sunday, May 30, 1999 10:30 AM > > Subject: [CANSLIM] Intro: Hugh Fader > > > > Hello, > > > > I am Hugh Fader, a 40-year-old computer engineer from Royal > > Oak, > > MI. I have been "lurking" for several months reading the > > digests > > of this group and have learned a lot. I now want to become > > more > > active in the group. > > > > I have been using CANSLIM to invest since last fall with > > moderate > > success. One of the biggest problems I have is hitting the > > entry > > point correctly on a buy. It seems almost impossible to do > > this > > consistently without monitoring your watchlist > > minute-by-minute. > > I am interested in learning more about how people with day > > jobs > > handle this. > > > > Looking forward to getting to know you all better. > > > > Hugh > > > > - > > > > - > > - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Hugh Fader Subject: [CANSLIM] Buying on a pullback Date: 31 May 1999 12:47:34 -0400 Thanks Dave, I'm flattered. I am hoping what I have learned will turn into more significant profits in the near future. It hasn't so far. How do you define buying on a pullback? Do you wait for a stock to test its pivot point and buy as its falling? Do you just wait for the stock to pause as it is rising? One idea I have been toying with is a modified Elder triple screen. 1. Wait for the stock to break out. 2. Wait for a 2 or 3 day drop (or pullback). 3. Buy when the stock rises above its previous day's high. What do people in the group think of this as a way of buying after a break out and not being eaten alive? Dave Squires wrote: > Hugh, > > Your analysis of the stock and plan to scale in was excellent! > > The key to buying in the handle is two fold. First, you have to be able > to pick exceptional cup and handle patterns. Second, you have to be able > to read > the ever so tricky 'M' right. > > As most CS'ers know 'M' is the key to profits. After a follow through > there is often a very low risk period where the market is in a strong > up trend. This is the safest time to buy in the handle. After the strong > up trend, (the easy money is made then) the market gets more selective > and I would suggest you only buy breakouts. Finally, the choppy/toppy > market starts and this is definitely not a time to be buying in the > handle. When the market is questionable, as it was on 5-18, you can't > buy > in the handle because a breakout is much less likely. The best thing to > do is to let > the stock breakout and show you it is strong in the face of a choppy > market.......then buy the pullback. If you want a great example of this > look at POWI. This stock broke out on heavy volume just before earnings > only to have a light volume retest of the base after the breakout. The > stock was showing clear bullish price activity in the face of a falling > market. As a general rule I would suggest you only buy in the handle in > the first > 1 1/2 months following a market follow through. After you buy give the > stock 7-10 days to move out of the base. If it doesn't breakout then > move on > to a new stock. Furthermore, only buy a partial position in the handle. > > The other criteria for buying in the handle is proper stock selection. > One very important thing here is a major volume contraction in the > handle and a volatility contraction. FDS had both of these and I was > waiting to buy just like you. After the 4/29 shakeout volatility > contracted and volume practically went to nothing. This stock was dying > to breakout but Mr. Market had other plans! Anyway, it seems you don't > have any trouble identifying exceptional C&H patterns. > > As far as buying at the right time while having a day job...... this is > a > problem. However, buying breakouts isn't all that great anymore. Big O > has > made buying breakouts so mainstream that there is almost always a > pullback > from the "crowd buying frenzy". I would suggest that you be more of a > pullback buyer if you can't monitor the stock all day. The market is > giving these opportunities more and more > lately. A good rule of thumb might go like this. In the first 1-1/2 > months after a follow through you > could buy breakouts (and in the handle as mentioned above) using buy > stops and from then on enter on the pullback. I'm not suggesting that > all stocks will pullback and test their base but they will often come > off enough for a low risk entry. > > Good Trading, > > DSquires > > Hugh Fader wrote: > > > > Tom, > > > > Yes, we have had a real spring here and are now getting an early > > taste of summer. > > > > I recently tried buying FDS in anticipation of a breakout and was > > stopped out. Below was my assessment on 5/18 when I decided to > > buy. I would be interested in any comments on my reasoning and > > why this may have not been such a good buy. > > > > ----- > > Thinking seriously about buying FDS in anticipation of a > > breakout. It is currently at 46.88 on the handle of a perfect CWH > > with low volume, 13% off its high of 54 and just above the 50 MA > > of 45. It has tested the 50 MA twice in the past 6 weeks. > > > > Current: Up 42% > > Annual: 47% growth rate > > New: nothing except exceptional earnings. Anticipating a new high > > on breakout. > > Supply: 15M shares 39% held by mgt > > Leadership: GRS 80, Comml Services Misc ranked 42nd down from > > 25th three months ago > > Institutional: 21% held by funds > > Market: Some jitters due to FOMC meeting. Markets down slightly > > on slightly higher volume today. > > > > I will buy 1/3 of a position tomorrow and sell if it falls below > > the 50 MA. Will buy 1/3 more on a breakout and 1/3 more on a > > pullback. > > ---- > > > > Tom Worley wrote: > > > > > Hi Hugh, > > > > > > First, welcome to the group and thanks for the intro. I > > > imagine summer is finally starting to arrive in your area (I > > > spent four years in The Soo, where there were only two > > > seasons: winter and the 4th of July). > > > > > > Trying to get the entry point exact, or even close, is very > > > difficult if you have a day job. On the ones where I > > > succeeded, it occurred by looking at the chart that morning > > > and making a buy decision; then entering a limit buy order. > > > If I could be sure of the time to monitor trading during the > > > day, I would not use limit orders nor enter an order prior > > > to 9:45 or so, but that's no longer an option the way my job > > > is going. > > > > > > Because I am only trading small cap stocks, which tend to be > > > both volatile and relatively thinly traded, I have also > > > resorted to buying while still in the base, and gambling on > > > an eventual breakout. At least then I can set a downside > > > stop which is also relative to the base as well as my entry > > > point. > > > > > > I still miss more than I catch, but that's OK, there's > > > always another one waiting in the wings. > > > > > > Tom Worley > > > stkguru@netside.net > > > chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 > > > get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html > > > > > > -----Original Message----- > > > From: Hugh Fader > > > To: canslim@xmission.com > > > Date: Sunday, May 30, 1999 10:30 AM > > > Subject: [CANSLIM] Intro: Hugh Fader > > > > > > Hello, > > > > > > I am Hugh Fader, a 40-year-old computer engineer from Royal > > > Oak, > > > MI. I have been "lurking" for several months reading the > > > digests > > > of this group and have learned a lot. I now want to become > > > more > > > active in the group. > > > > > > I have been using CANSLIM to invest since last fall with > > > moderate > > > success. One of the biggest problems I have is hitting the > > > entry > > > point correctly on a buy. It seems almost impossible to do > > > this > > > consistently without monitoring your watchlist > > > minute-by-minute. > > > I am interested in learning more about how people with day > > > jobs > > > handle this. > > > > > > Looking forward to getting to know you all better. > > > > > > Hugh > > > > > > - > > > > > > - > > > > - > > - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Marc Laniado" Subject: [CANSLIM] UIS Date: 31 May 1999 21:25:03 +0100 Thank you Peter for your comments. Does anyone else have an opinion on UIS? Is anyone making a list of possible shorts?? Is it worth it??? Marc E Laniado marclaniado@msn.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Connie Mack Rea Subject: [CANSLIM] Technical tutorial. [Connie Mack] Date: 31 May 1999 17:41:52 -0400 Some of our new members might want to brush up on the technical side of investing. Here is a good place to begin: http://decisionpoint.com/TAcourse/TAcourseMenu.html Connie Mack - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Connie Mack Rea Subject: [CANSLIM] MACD, trading, and Tom. [Connie Mack] Date: 31 May 1999 19:18:22 -0400 While you're looking at the Decision Point site [http://decisionpoint.com/TraderNick/NickTechCIEN.html], be sure to read this essay on the MACD. Short of buying a text, this short piece is well done and immediately useful. The writer uses his MACD much as I do. I use some other settings to contrast with his 12/26/9. I use a faster 8/17/9. Some traders use the latter to enter and the author's to exit. I know a couple of traders who do the reverse. I also use 12/6/8 and 12/3/6. Along with these I use my 3/7/11 EMA, several stochastic settings, and some linear regression lines. I especially like MoneyFlow and OBV as gross indicators. I was unable to print this essay. Apparently, DecisionPoint or the author didn't want it printed or didn't want to set up so you could print a black on white. You would use a can of ink to print the white on blue. I'm hoping to trade SMOD tomorrow. Will probably buy some KM between 15 and 15.25. I am holding some DELL at 35.25. Here you can safely enter market orders because there is so much volume, and the spread is a 1/16th. I've been taking a little more than spending money out of DJT. I hope to buy at 5.12 and try to take away an 1/8th to 3/8ths. To make this trade worthwhile, you'll need to buy a minimum of 1000 shares; and more is preferable. The spread has been an 1/8th, and you usually can buy and sell on the 1/16th. Tom is one of the better sources for combining trading with Canslim. He holds the rules of Canslim strongly, but not inviolate. He likes to trade a bit and can give advice on a nice combination of the two. Connie Mack - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Intro: Hugh Fader Date: 31 May 1999 20:18:15 -0400 Hugh, I would agree that your calculation appears valid. I essentially rely on visualing the chart, including the handle, as I have found that using the mathematical approach works better for me as a "guide" than as a "rule". Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html -----Original Message----- Tom, Thanks for the feedback. I bought when I did because that's when I discovered the stock. I noticed the low volume in the handle starting in early May. I see so many stocks with what looks like a cup with handle until you look at volume. Regarding the handle, I was following one of O'Neil's rules that I read somewhere which said the midpoint of the handle should be above the midpoint of the cup. Here is my calculation: Cup: hi 54, lo 35.5, midpoint 44.75 Handle: hi 51, lo 44, midpoint 47.5 Is this calculation valid? In reviewing the graph, maybe I was wrong in saying this is a "perfect CWH." Most of the examples I have seen show the beginning of the handle much closer to the peak of the cup than FDS has. I agree that the price pattern in the handle is not very tight. Do you just visually look for a tight base or do you have some % variation rule of thumb? This stock is still on my watchlist. That's one thing I've learned. Don't just forget about a stock after you get stopped out. It could still come back and the stock doesn't remember whether or not you owned it in the past. Tom Worley wrote: > Hi Hugh, > > As far as the c&h goes, the cup is deeper than I prefer. > Best is about 25% of the prior gain, this looks more like > 50% or so. The handle began to form lower than the left edge > of the cup, which is ok, but it then began to droop too much > and on light volume, suggesting too much selling pressure to > sustain it. By the time you bot it, the handle had already > drooped over 10% from where it started to form. > > Glad to see you are keeping a diary, that's the best way to > learn and not repeat mistakes. You don't mention, other than > "anticipating a breakout" why you bot just when you did. > Ideally, when I buy in a base (or handle), I look for a > tight base, with the price being maintained very stable, > while volume dropped substantially. That would seem to be > missing here. Otherwise tho, a very good CANSLIIM stock, and > probably worth continuing to watch. > > Tom Worley > stkguru@netside.net > chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 > get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html > > -----Original Message----- > From: Hugh Fader > To: canslim@lists.xmission.com > Date: Sunday, May 30, 1999 1:23 PM > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Intro: Hugh Fader > > Tom, > > Yes, we have had a real spring here and are now getting an > early > taste of summer. > > I recently tried buying FDS in anticipation of a breakout > and was > stopped out. Below was my assessment on 5/18 when I decided > to > buy. I would be interested in any comments on my reasoning > and > why this may have not been such a good buy. > > ----- > Thinking seriously about buying FDS in anticipation of a > breakout. It is currently at 46.88 on the handle of a > perfect CWH > with low volume, 13% off its high of 54 and just above the > 50 MA > of 45. It has tested the 50 MA twice in the past 6 weeks. > > Current: Up 42% > Annual: 47% growth rate > New: nothing except exceptional earnings. Anticipating a new > high > on breakout. > Supply: 15M shares 39% held by mgt > Leadership: GRS 80, Comml Services Misc ranked 42nd down > from > 25th three months ago > Institutional: 21% held by funds > Market: Some jitters due to FOMC meeting. Markets down > slightly > on slightly higher volume today. > > I will buy 1/3 of a position tomorrow and sell if it falls > below > the 50 MA. Will buy 1/3 more on a breakout and 1/3 more on a > pullback. > ---- > > - - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Market direction, basing, breaking, trending stocks etc Date: 31 May 1999 20:36:02 -0400 Hugh, It's important to distinguish between what WON says for general consumption (e.g. the uninformed, uneducated to CANSLIM and investing "public") and what he says to experienced investors and institutionals. During the period that I was a receipient of his faxed institutional recommendations, I saw many stocks on the list below $12 (usually his threshold for the general public). Had I bot MSS like I planned, it would have been in or close to the base at $8. The same holds true for my plans on TTIL. I don't have a problem with low priced stocks so long as they have enough CANSLIM characteristics. I am a patient and generally long term investor. If I wait for a breakout to 10, the stock is already up 25% from a strong base, and too extended to buy unless it returns to the base, or builds a new one. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html -----Original Message----- trending stocks etc Tom, TTIL is priced around 8. O'Neil says don't buy a stock below 15. Would you buy if this stock broke out to say 10? How do you decide when it is OK to violate this rule? Thanks. Tom Worley wrote: > Marc, > > TTIL - on my watch list for nearly two months, just waiting > - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: [CANSLIM] "M", FWIW Date: 31 May 1999 21:47:51 -0400 As I read it, the next several weeks should see an improving overall mkt. Can't tell yet if the internet and techs will lead a recovery, but the cyclicals are looking weak. I don't expect new highs on the indexes, but do expect improving trends. We are entering the "summer doldrums" so would expect volume to be lighter, but may also lead to less volatility, which has been extreme lately. A sig drop in volatility would be good for CANSLIM stocks. The biggest single drag on the mkt right now is the fear that the Feds are on the verge of a rate hike. I don't consider this an accurate picture, tho the media certainly loves it. In fact, several recent economic reports, yet to be confirmed by further data, suggest that a rate hike is anything but imminent. But the fear is there, and only time (and the media) will tell if it abates. The NAPM report is due on Tuesday (which may help confirm the Chicago Purchasing Mgrs Report last week); New Home sales is due on Wednesday (which may help confirm the Existing Sales report last week); and the Labor Report is due on Friday (which may clarify several reports on inflation). Should be an interesting start to the summer. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Edward P. Bullock" Subject: [CANSLIM] Re: DGO Date: 31 May 1999 23:24:05 -0400 Any advice out there would be greatly appreciated. It's time for me to renew my DG's. Am I better off subscribing to DGO instead of the hardcopy Dg. Also, do I really need either to be successful? Has anyone read the book by Dhun Sethna, HTPWSWIBD? Apparently, he only uses IBD. I've subscribed to DG for a year now and it doesn't seem that there have been many opportunities; which makes me unsure about how patient I must be before I can make CANSLIM work? I'd appreciate hearing from some veterans who can tell me how long they've been at it and have you really been very successful? How long have your dry periods been before you get the M you need as well as the other CANSLIM factors. I went to an O'neil seminar several years ago & saw him and David Ryan speak about canslim for a full day. They basically made it seem that there were always opportunities to buy stocks. At that time, I read DG's for a year but it appeared to be a poor year for canslim characteristics and I didn't start again til last year. Any comments? Also, where is David R? - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "mikelu" Subject: [CANSLIM] www.tradehard.com Date: 31 May 1999 22:19:12 -0700 I saw an ad for www.tradehard.com in IBD, and I'm going to try the free 3-day trial. It's $10/month or $95/yr. They seem to have lists of cup-and-handles, and pullbacks after breakouts. Mike -