From: jeff.salisbury@xmission.com Date: 01 Apr 2000 03:59:36 -0700 (8.8.8/8.7.3) with SMTP id FAA03942 for ; Sat, 1 Apr 2000 05:49:33 -0500 (EST) Message-ID: <002d01bf9bc8$115c7660$0f02000a@txw> MIME-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit X-Priority: 3 X-MSMail-Priority: Normal X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2314.1300 X-MimeOLE: Produced By Microsoft MimeOLE V5.00.2314.1300 X-RBL-Warning: (relays.orbs.org) Open relay - see http://www.orbs.org/verify.cgi?address=205.159.140.2 Thanks to a day off (had to use at least one of my 1999 vacation days before they expired on Friday), I had time to watch the market behaviour more closely. And now rested, as a warmup to my DGO List review, I spent some time with the index charts. The DOW 30 has made a considerable recovery over the past 3 weeks, now needs to break 11,429 for any further advance towards a new high. DJ Transportation also has made a nice recovery, largely in anticipation of cheaper fuel, and now has based for two weeks. It looks to me likely to go higher. Good volume and price move on Friday. DJ Utilities is behaving as I would expect (basing, declining volume) in the face of higher Fed rates in the future, and declining long bond rates currently, as these two factors offset each other. NASDAQ 100 shows a sharper recovery on Friday than the Nasdaq Composite. However, the Composite shows well under average volume throughout this losing week until Thursday, which looks to me like a flushing out, tree shaking day. The low, as well as the close, undercut the most recent intraday low, and found support at the short base from early Feb. Friday's volume was nearly 1% higher and close to a new record on a nice recovery. NYSE Composite shows a much healthier picture than either S&P500 or DJ30. Looks like the recovery has more breadth than the media airheads have said. The "4 chart" Market Indicators of DGO also confirm this for me, where new high/low has turned positive (tho at low levels) and up/down volume while approaching each other remains positive as well. Overall, NYSE is currently overbought, and we are probably due for some profit taking. Bottom line, what I get from all of this is we have completed a healthy correction on NASDAQ, esp the tech stocks, and are about to see money rushing out of "old economy" and right back into "new techs". I did pick up a sense that the "B2B" stocks may no longer be one of the hottest tech sectors. The internut stocks for the most part have not shown signs of recovery, so the value players may like them. Expect high volatility. And, of course, starting in about a week, we will begin the earnings reporting cycle, where I would expect techs to shine. Good luck, Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: [CANSLIM] DGO List Date: 01 Apr 2000 07:17:00 -0500 Despite a big down week for NASDAQ, the list showed a small improvement to 100 stocks, up from last week's 86, but still down from two weeks ago at 129. Here's the margin comments (Bx = Base, x = nr of weeks) Bases: PTIX - B1+; DSPG - B1; PWR - B2; RMD - consolidating, B1; GIL - B6; LTRE - B1; TWP - consolidating, B1; SGR - consolidating, B1; RSYS - B4; APH - B1; BBRC - B4; SCI - B1; APCC - B2; TNL - B1?; DIO - questionable B4; ALTR - same thing, this volatility is tough on charts; CDA - orderly B3, volume declining sharply; ASGN - B3; CHP - B1+; KCP - B1; CVG - B5, volume up on Friday, at pivot; MEAD - B1+; USTR - B1, low PE; ADBE - B1; VSH - B4; PLXS - sloppy B3; VOL - B1; MOLX - B3 Additional comments: AMCC - nice recovery on vol on Thursday, bucking the trend, Friday's vol down, price up. pivot point $10 away PLMD - resisted the correction on volume HOTT - breakout on Friday LOGIY - wedging, volume declining NT - failed b/o, back to B2 MNMD - sloppy, volatile base, at pivot point XLTC - nice breakout last week on volume DYN - breakout Friday from B3 CGII - start of a LLUR?? GMTC - base on base HC - 3 month LLUR SANM - breaking out Friday on 2X ADV, at pivot Hope someone finds something useful here, Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Changsoo Sohn" Subject: [CANSLIM] Quick Survey Date: 01 Apr 2000 08:43:39 -0600 This is a part of doctoral dissertation. This study focuses on people who are familiar with Internet stock trading like you. Could you answer the question and reply to me as soon as possible? I appreciate your cooperation. ---- If you have bought products over the Internet, could you check what kinds of products or services you have transacted? (Please check as many as you have experienced) ____ Internet-based financial services like Internet stock trading, home banking, credit card, ... ____ Digitalizable Products like CDs, Software, Reservation, ... ____ Physical Products like toys, books, flowers, clothes, automobiles, ... ____ Others (Please write here _____________________________________) Thanks. ... Changsoo Sohn ... Changsoo Sohn Department of Management (MIS) Southern Illinois University at Carbondale http://www.cba.siu.edu/changsoo E-mail: changsoo@siu.edu & cssohn@hotmail.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: owner-canslim@xmission.com (Jeff Salisbury) Subject: [CANSLIM] Changing your canslim subscription Date: 01 Apr 2000 08:00:00 -0700 This is a twice monthly posting to the CANLSLIM group. Frequently, people sign up for the canslim list and then are overwhelmed by the volume of the email. There are three remedies for this problem: 1) You can leave our group. 2) you can switch to the digest version which "conglomerates" many canslim messages into one large message. Or, 3) You can setup customized filters on your own mail client to sort the incoming canslim messages to its own folder. If you wish to modify your canslim subscription, email a message to: majordomo@xmission.com The remove yourself from the canslim list, write in the body of the email: unsubscribe canslim To add yourself to the digest version of the canslim list, write in the body of the email: subscribe canslim-digest For general help with majordomo commands, write in the body of the email: help If you need further clarification, write me directly at: canslim-owner@lists.xmission.com Best Regards, Jeff Salisbury - CANSLIM list admin / owner - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Patrick Wahl" Subject: [CANSLIM] Re: Date: 01 Apr 2000 08:56:45 -0700 > The DOW 30 has made a considerable recovery over the past 3 > weeks, now needs to break 11,429 for any further advance > towards a new high. It does seem to be showing greater internal strength lately. Even yesterday, on a down day, the advances were almost two to one over decliners, and more highs than new lows. I'm wondering if we may be seeing a shift towards stocks that represent more value in terms of how much you have to pay for earnings. After all, stocks like PMCS, BRCD, BRCM, VRTS, etc., have doubled and tripled in a few months, and eventually I think those companies stock prices have to approach a growth rate that more nearly matches their own earnings growth rates, which may mean underperforming for a while to average things out. (but I'm usually wrong when I try to figure out what the market might do) I didn't see this, but someone else told me some Nobel Prize winning economist from MIT was on CNBC yesterday, and he said there is no question we are in a speculative bubble regarding tech stocks, and those things always end badly. Its the old greater fool theory, but when that thinking changes, people will be quick to unload their stocks at any price. This is all second hand, so I may be misquoting a bit here. Professor Tom, if you are up to it, care to comment on the inverted yield curve? I vaguely remember that it is considered a forerunner of a recession, the idea being something like - we have inflation so short term rates go up, but looking out further, an economic slowdown seems to be in the cards, reducing inflationary pressures, so longer term bonds will have yields under the short term t bills. - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Catherine M. Wilson" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Re: Date: 01 Apr 2000 08:58:42 -0800 Patrick Wahl wrote: > I didn't see this, but someone else told me some Nobel Prize > winning economist from MIT was on CNBC yesterday, and he said > there is no question we are in a speculative bubble regarding tech > stocks, and those things always end badly. Its the old greater fool > theory, but when that thinking changes, people will be quick to > unload their stocks at any price. This is all second hand, so I may > be misquoting a bit here. I saw the interview, and my perception was that he was talking about Internet stocks with enormous valuations and no earnings--the stocks that have doubled and tripled over the last 3 to 6 months. I think, however, that many people wouldn't have picked up that he was talking about this particular group of stocks. I've heard his remarks reported on CNBC as referring to all Internet-related stocks, and, as Patrick says above, people will tend to generalize his remarks to all tech stocks, which isn't what he was talking about at all. Kit - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Earl Setser Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Quick Survey Date: 01 Apr 2000 10:26:31 -0700 At 08:43 AM 4/1/00 -0600, you wrote: >This is a part of doctoral dissertation. >This study focuses on people who are familiar with Internet stock trading >like you. >Could you answer the question and reply to me as soon as possible? >I appreciate your cooperation. > >---- > >If you have bought products over the Internet, could you check what kinds of >products or services you have transacted? (Please check as many as you have >experienced) > >__X__ Internet-based financial services like Internet stock trading, home >banking, credit card, ... >__X__ Digitalizable Products like CDs, Software, Reservation, ... >__X__ Physical Products like toys, books, flowers, clothes, automobiles, ... >__X__ Others (Software, VCR, Computer equipment, Video tapes, briefcase,) > >Thanks. > >... Changsoo Sohn ... > > >---------------------------------------------------------------- >Changsoo Sohn >Department of Management (MIS) >Southern Illinois University at Carbondale >http://www.cba.siu.edu/changsoo >E-mail: changsoo@siu.edu & cssohn@hotmail.com > > > >- > > > - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Susan Strouse" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Re: Date: 01 Apr 2000 10:09:09 -0800 Interesting how things change from one person to the next. I have a new stock for our watch list. Check on AMK. Let me know what you think. Thanks for all the other info. Susan -----Original Message----- >Patrick Wahl wrote: > >> I didn't see this, but someone else told me some Nobel Prize >> winning economist from MIT was on CNBC yesterday, and he said >> there is no question we are in a speculative bubble regarding tech >> stocks, and those things always end badly. Its the old greater fool >> theory, but when that thinking changes, people will be quick to >> unload their stocks at any price. This is all second hand, so I may >> be misquoting a bit here. > >I saw the interview, and my perception was that he >was talking about Internet stocks with enormous >valuations and no earnings--the stocks that have >doubled and tripled over the last 3 to 6 months. >I think, however, that many people wouldn't have >picked up that he was talking about this particular >group of stocks. I've heard his remarks reported >on CNBC as referring to all Internet-related stocks, >and, as Patrick says above, people will tend to >generalize his remarks to all tech stocks, which >isn't what he was talking about at all. > >Kit > >- > > - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Re: Date: 01 Apr 2000 15:17:32 -0500 Hi Patrick, I'm not sure I can explain the inverted yield, other than by the buyback and retirement of debt by the Fed Govt. This was already going on for some time in terms of smaller auctions, as we finally gained budget surpluses. With the recent decision to purchase existing higher yielding long bonds on the open market, there is a significant overall reduction taking place in long term govt debt in circulation. So I see the inverted yield as a reflection of market demand, and mkt pricing, rather than an indicator of either recession or a slowdown in growth. Short term rates have gone up because of Fed hikes, not inflation, so this also doesn't apply, in my professorial opinion. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html ----- Original Message ----- Sent: Saturday, April 01, 2000 10:56 AM Professor Tom, if you are up to it, care to comment on the inverted yield curve? I vaguely remember that it is considered a forerunner of a recession, the idea being something like - we have inflation so short term rates go up, but looking out further, an economic slowdown seems to be in the cards, reducing inflationary pressures, so longer term bonds will have yields under the short term t bills. - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Matt Robinson" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Re: Date: 01 Apr 2000 15:44:53 -0500 A side not that amuses me. When the yield curve began to become inverted, the talking heads on the box (CNBC, and yes I am ashamed to say I watch it from time to time) were saying it was a no-brainer to buy shorter term and sell longer term. When the yield curve became further inverted, they reported that someone must be trying to squeeze the shorts on the long bond. Hmmm, I wonder why they aren't commenting on their "no-brainer" trade. Sorry, email was kind of pointless, but I do find it amusing how quickly they will change their tune, yet attempt to sound confident and authoritative. Regards Matt ----- Original Message ----- Sent: Saturday, April 01, 2000 3:17 PM > Hi Patrick, > > I'm not sure I can explain the inverted yield, other than by > the buyback and retirement of debt by the Fed Govt. This > was already going on for some time in terms of smaller > auctions, as we finally gained budget surpluses. With the > recent decision to purchase existing higher yielding long > bonds on the open market, there is a significant overall > reduction taking place in long term govt debt in > circulation. So I see the inverted yield as a reflection of > market demand, and mkt pricing, rather than an indicator of > either recession or a slowdown in growth. > > Short term rates have gone up because of Fed hikes, not > inflation, so this also doesn't apply, in my professorial > opinion. > > Tom Worley > > > > - > > > > - > __________________________________________________ Do You Yahoo!? Talk to your friends online with Yahoo! Messenger. http://im.yahoo.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Re: inverted yield curve Date: 01 Apr 2000 15:58:58 -0500 There is no accountability from day to day for media airheads. At least if I am wrong, you can remind me. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html ----- Original Message ----- Sent: Saturday, April 01, 2000 3:44 PM A side not that amuses me. When the yield curve began to become inverted, the talking heads on the box (CNBC, and yes I am ashamed to say I watch it from time to time) were saying it was a no-brainer to buy shorter term and sell longer term. When the yield curve became further inverted, they reported that someone must be trying to squeeze the shorts on the long bond. Hmmm, I wonder why they aren't commenting on their "no-brainer" trade. Sorry, email was kind of pointless, but I do find it amusing how quickly they will change their tune, yet attempt to sound confident and authoritative. Regards Matt ----- Original Message ----- Sent: Saturday, April 01, 2000 3:17 PM > Hi Patrick, > > I'm not sure I can explain the inverted yield, other than by > the buyback and retirement of debt by the Fed Govt. This > was already going on for some time in terms of smaller > auctions, as we finally gained budget surpluses. With the > recent decision to purchase existing higher yielding long > bonds on the open market, there is a significant overall > reduction taking place in long term govt debt in > circulation. So I see the inverted yield as a reflection of > market demand, and mkt pricing, rather than an indicator of > either recession or a slowdown in growth. > > Short term rates have gone up because of Fed hikes, not > inflation, so this also doesn't apply, in my professorial > opinion. > > Tom Worley > > > > - > > > > - > __________________________________________________ Do You Yahoo!? Talk to your friends online with Yahoo! Messenger. http://im.yahoo.com - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Walter Stock Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Re: inverted yield curve Date: 01 Apr 2000 19:57:33 -0500 Hi Tom, It goes a step further. The interviews are really the airheads talking to the befuddled. Jeff Cooper at TradingMarkets.com summed it up best for me this weekend: " There is a lesson here for all of us. The business of the market is to humble all who play, until they pay their dues and respect Mr. Market above all. And Mr. Market is a funny guy, kind of like the character Joe Pesci played in the movie "Good Fellas." The market is volatile and emotional. You never know when it's pulling your leg with a bear trap, or when it's in deadly earnest. All the psychoanalysts in the world -- or the market analysts, for that matter -- can't predict its behavior. You just have to respect the essence of its nature and roll with the punches, or you'll end up stranded. There's a parade of "wise guys," like Barton Biggs, who admits that he just doesn't understand what's going on anymore, that the market scares him. Warren Buffet: befuddled. Quantum's Stanley Druckemiller got "taken apart" in the last few weeks -- down 12 percent this month, caught in the biotech crossfire. All this shows the bizarre nature of the current equity environment. As Johnny Carson would say, "There is some weird and wild stuff going on." " As for me I'm still all in cash... waiting. Think I'm going to rent "Good Fellas" again. Walter Stock Oakville, ON, Canada Tom Worley wrote: > There is no accountability from day to day for media > airheads. At least if I am wrong, you can remind me. > > Tom Worley > stkguru@netside.net > chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 > get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html > - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Earl Setser Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Re:AMK Date: 01 Apr 2000 22:53:56 -0700 AMK looks pretty good from a CANSLIM fundie standpoint. It was featured on the Internet and Technology page in Monday's IBD (and maybe that's where you saw it!) Numbers are 95/95/ABB and it's in the Elec-Misc Components group, presently ranked number 13. From a technical standpoint, it's been basing for about 6 weeks since hitting a high in mid-Feb, and has been above the closing low for about 6 days, hence it could be working on the right side of a cup. This is a good one to watch for a possible B/O given another FT day on the NAS. At 10:09 AM 4/1/00 -0800, you wrote: >Interesting how things change from one person to the next. > >I have a new stock for our watch list. Check on AMK. Let me know what you >think. >Thanks for all the other info. > >Susan >-----Original Message----- >From: Catherine M. Wilson >To: canslim@lists.xmission.com >Date: Saturday, April 01, 2000 8:58 AM >Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Re: > > >>Patrick Wahl wrote: >> >>> I didn't see this, but someone else told me some Nobel Prize >>> winning economist from MIT was on CNBC yesterday, and he said >>> there is no question we are in a speculative bubble regarding tech >>> stocks, and those things always end badly. Its the old greater fool >>> theory, but when that thinking changes, people will be quick to >>> unload their stocks at any price. This is all second hand, so I may >>> be misquoting a bit here. >> >>I saw the interview, and my perception was that he >>was talking about Internet stocks with enormous >>valuations and no earnings--the stocks that have >>doubled and tripled over the last 3 to 6 months. >>I think, however, that many people wouldn't have >>picked up that he was talking about this particular >>group of stocks. I've heard his remarks reported >>on CNBC as referring to all Internet-related stocks, >>and, as Patrick says above, people will tend to >>generalize his remarks to all tech stocks, which >>isn't what he was talking about at all. >> >>Kit >> >>- >> >> > > >- > > > - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Marc Laniado" Subject: [CANSLIM] GIL Date: 02 Apr 2000 09:18:56 +0100 Retailers are taking off a bit Take a look at the cup ( 7weeks) and handle (3 days) of GIL (EPS 98, RS 87, ACC/DIST B, IND RS 61, SMR A, FUNDS 19.8%, CAP 450 million. If it breaks out, its RS line might accompany it into new high ground. - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: " Makara Tamás" Subject: [CANSLIM] WON on selling short Date: 02 Apr 2000 13:35:06 +0200 A couple of weeks ago it was questioned whether shorting should be discussed on a CANSLIM list. I 've just reread Schwager's Market Wizards, where WON said: "Short selling of individual stocks should only be considered after the general market shows signs of a top. The best chart pattern to short is one in which a stock breaks out on the upside of its third or fourth base and then fails. The stock should be breaking down toward the low end of its previous base pattern on increased volume. After the first serios price break bellow the base, there will usually be several pullback attempts. The prior base will now provide an area of overhead supply, as all investors who bought in that zone will be losing money, and a number of them will be eager to get out near breakeven. Therefore, pullbacks to failed price bases also provide good timing for short sales." So I think shorting could be discussed here, and came a bear market, I would be happy to read a lot about it. It would be also important to find some fundamental criteria for selecting short candidates. One that came to my mind was to look at stocks whose growth rate is high but decelerating. (Or high and rapidly falling eps rank). Other ideas? And some thougths on the market. We now have two Livermore Pivotal Points: the Nasdaq's high and the recent low bellow 4400. The line of least resistence (or the trend) doesn't reveal itself until the index breaks through decisively one of these levels. We had a failed low volume rally attempt and several days of distribution. These are clear danger signs and I'm fully in cash, yet it may be early to call the bull move dead. Johan, what happened to you? I miss your posts. Tamas - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: owner-canslim@xmission.com (Jeff Salisbury) Subject: [CANSLIM] Sending large files to the canslim group Date: 02 Apr 2000 08:00:01 -0600 Everyone, There are times when you may wish to share large files with our group (i.e. gif, jpeg, spreadsheets, etc). Our list is configured to reject large postings (even if they are properly encoded) since the sheer volume has caused problems in the past. As an alternative, we have provided an anonymous ftp site. To provide your file to the group, please follow these instructions: 1. Send your file to: ftp://ftp.xmission.com/pub/users/m/mcjathan/incoming/ If you need some help doing this step, there are ftp instructions below. 2. Send mail to me directly at "owner-canslim@xmission.com" telling me the name of the file that you uploaded. I will move the file from the incoming directory, to the canslim directory where people will be able to download your file. 3. After I notify you that the file has been moved to the canslim directory, you should send an email to the canslim group describing your file, and its URL (i.e. ftp://ftp.xmission.com/pub/users/m/mcjathan/GreatBoom.gif). Although this may seem unwieldy at first, it really isn't too bad and it solves more problems than it creates. You should note that I do not monitor my email on the weekends as closely as during the week. Therefore, steps 2-3 may take longer over a weekend. Best Regards, Jeff Salisbury =========================================================================== FTP Instructions: 1. Using Netscape, go to the URL: ftp://ftp.xmission.com/pub/users/m/mcjathan/incoming/ 2. On the Netscape "File" menu, select "Upload File..." This will open a file selection widget on your hard-drive. Select the file you wish to upload and hit the "Ok" button. At this point, your file will be uploaded. 3. Eventhough your file has been uploaded, you will not be able to see the file in your netscape browser. The reason for this is that the "incoming" directory is set to write-only for security reasons. - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: travis bolster Subject: [CANSLIM] Intro: Travis Bolster Date: 02 Apr 2000 08:12:53 -0700 (PDT) Hello everyone, My name is Travis Bolster and I joining the list today. I am 24 years old and a senior studying finance and economics at Tulane University in New Orleans. I have been reading and following CANSLIM philosophy for 3 years now and have been highly successful. I have searched high and low looking for discussions and chats on the CANSLIM philosophy so was very happy when discovered the program. Looking forward to learning new techniques from members. Sincerely, Travis Bolster __________________________________________________ Do You Yahoo!? Talk to your friends online with Yahoo! Messenger. http://im.yahoo.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Intro: Travis Bolster Date: 02 Apr 2000 12:10:43 -0400 Hi Travis, Welcome to the group, you have found probably the best place on the net to discuss CANSLIM. Feel free to share your ideas, and picks, and ask for opinions, you will usually get some feedback. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html ----- Original Message ----- Sent: Sunday, April 02, 2000 11:12 AM Hello everyone, My name is Travis Bolster and I joining the list today. I am 24 years old and a senior studying finance and economics at Tulane University in New Orleans. I have been reading and following CANSLIM philosophy for 3 years now and have been highly successful. I have searched high and low looking for discussions and chats on the CANSLIM philosophy so was very happy when discovered the program. Looking forward to learning new techniques from members. Sincerely, Travis Bolster __________________________________________________ Do You Yahoo!? Talk to your friends online with Yahoo! Messenger. http://im.yahoo.com - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Dwayne Andras" Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] Intro: Travis Bolster Date: 02 Apr 2000 12:48:38 -0500 Welcome I am also just joining the group. I am from Thibodaux, Louisiana. I am 31 and a Nurse Practitioner. I look forward to chatting more and sharing ideas and LEARNING. I too have been doing real well in the past...but the future is what counts... Dwayne P. Andras MSN,CCRN,ACNP DeeAndras@cajun.net -----Original Message----- [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of travis bolster Sent: Sunday, April 02, 2000 10:13 AM Hello everyone, My name is Travis Bolster and I joining the list today. I am 24 years old and a senior studying finance and economics at Tulane University in New Orleans. I have been reading and following CANSLIM philosophy for 3 years now and have been highly successful. I have searched high and low looking for discussions and chats on the CANSLIM philosophy so was very happy when discovered the program. Looking forward to learning new techniques from members. Sincerely, Travis Bolster __________________________________________________ Do You Yahoo!? Talk to your friends online with Yahoo! Messenger. http://im.yahoo.com - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Intro: Dwayne Andras Date: 02 Apr 2000 18:54:22 -0400 Welcome, Dwayne Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html ----- Original Message ----- Sent: Sunday, April 02, 2000 1:48 PM Welcome I am also just joining the group. I am from Thibodaux, Louisiana. I am 31 and a Nurse Practitioner. I look forward to chatting more and sharing ideas and LEARNING. I too have been doing real well in the past...but the future is what counts... Dwayne P. Andras MSN,CCRN,ACNP DeeAndras@cajun.net - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: [CANSLIM] NASDAQ Date: 03 Apr 2000 00:03:06 -0400 Futures look like Naz is going to take it on the chin on Monday's open. Asia is doing fine, Japan up nearly 1.6% and most other exchanges up as well. Makes no sense to me, will see what Europe does in the am, and how we actually open. I have several buy limits in place in case the mkt backs off on the open. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Patrick Wahl" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] NASDAQ Date: 02 Apr 2000 22:14:46 -0600 I don't know for certain, but maybe it has something to do with the Microsoft trial, for those that didn't hear, the govt. and MSFT have ended negotiations, so probably litigation will drag on for years. Here is a link on the subject - http://www.msnbc.com/news/389896.asp On 3 Apr 00, at 0:03, Tom Worley wrote: > Futures look like Naz is going to take it on the chin on > Monday's open. Asia is doing fine, Japan up nearly 1.6% and > most other exchanges up as well. Makes no sense to me, will > see what Europe does in the am, and how we actually open. I > have several buy limits in place in case the mkt backs off > on the open. > > Tom Worley > stkguru@netside.net > chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 > get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html > > > > > - > - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: asosis@ca.ibm.com Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Re:AMK Date: 03 Apr 2000 09:56:26 -0400 Hi! AMK's volume is already at 2/3rd of ave volume. What do you consider to be the correct pivot point? AMK looks pretty good from a CANSLIM fundie standpoint. It was featured on the Internet and Technology page in Monday's IBD (and maybe that's where you saw it!) Numbers are 95/95/ABB and it's in the Elec-Misc Components group, presently ranked number 13. From a technical standpoint, it's been basing for about 6 weeks since hitting a high in mid-Feb, and has been above the closing low for about 6 days, hence it could be working on the right side of a cup. This is a good one to watch for a possible B/O given another FT day on the NAS. At 10:09 AM 4/1/00 -0800, you wrote: >Interesting how things change from one person to the next. > >I have a new stock for our watch list. Check on AMK. Let me know what you >think. >Thanks for all the other info. > >Susan >-----Original Message----- >From: Catherine M. Wilson >To: canslim@lists.xmission.com >Date: Saturday, April 01, 2000 8:58 AM >Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Re: > > >>Patrick Wahl wrote: >> >>> I didn't see this, but someone else told me some Nobel Prize >>> winning economist from MIT was on CNBC yesterday, and he said >>> there is no question we are in a speculative bubble regarding tech >>> stocks, and those things always end badly. Its the old greater fool >>> theory, but when that thinking changes, people will be quick to >>> unload their stocks at any price. This is all second hand, so I may >>> be misquoting a bit here. >> >>I saw the interview, and my perception was that he >>was talking about Internet stocks with enormous >>valuations and no earnings--the stocks that have >>doubled and tripled over the last 3 to 6 months. >>I think, however, that many people wouldn't have >>picked up that he was talking about this particular >>group of stocks. I've heard his remarks reported >>on CNBC as referring to all Internet-related stocks, >>and, as Patrick says above, people will tend to >>generalize his remarks to all tech stocks, which >>isn't what he was talking about at all. >> >>Kit >> >>- >> >> > > >- > > > - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: owner-canslim@xmission.com (Jeff Salisbury) Subject: [CANSLIM] Accessing the discussion canslim archives... Date: 03 Apr 2000 08:00:01 -0600 From time to time, CANSLIM members may wish to browse the discussion archives. This posting provides instructions on how to access the archives. Thanks to David Cameron for compiling the essentials of this message. Here are the two ways to access the archives: 1. The best way is to use your web browser. To browse the archives, point your browser to: http://www.xmission.com/~mcjathan/cgi/lwgate.cgi/CANSLIM/ You can do simple key-word searches on the archive by going to: http://www.xmission.com/~mcjathan/canslim/search.html 2. (Not as convenient) via email: Send an email to majordomo@xmission.com with the following as the body of your message: "index canslim". Then send a follow up email to request an old email from either the "archive" or "latest" directory. Note that your request must be in the body of your email. For example: "get canslim latest/001" will retrieve file "001" from the "latest" directory. "get canslim archive/v01.n066" will retrieve file "v01.n066" from the "archive" dir. Best Regards, Jeff Salisbury - CANSLIM list owner/admin - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: han.26@osu.edu Subject: [CANSLIM] Re: Travis Bolster Date: 03 Apr 2000 10:05:58 -0700 Welcome aboard Travis. It sounds like your well on your way to eclipsing those of us who found out about CANSLIM later in our education than you have. I'm curious how your professors view[ed] CANSLIM as I recall David Ryan being ostracised by a professor when he mentioned how successful the method is (but that was before William J. O'Neil was a "household name" in the investment community). Jim --- A few abbreviations if you aren't already familiar: WON=Wm. O'Neil HTMMIS="How to Make Money in Stocks" [O'Neil's bestseller] - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Pritish Shah Subject: [CANSLIM] NASDAQ behaviour Date: 03 Apr 2000 12:10:52 -0700 (PDT) Nasdaq losing almost 300 points yet on low volume -- how should we read that? Question: 70+ Billion came into the market in Feb/Mar. Where the heck is it going? Regards, Shah - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Marc Laniado" Subject: [CANSLIM] GES Date: 03 Apr 2000 21:42:07 +0100 GES broke out of a cup and handle and pulled back into the buy range today - take a look! Textile apparel group EPS 72 RS 91 SMR A A/D A Timeliness B Funds 17% Fundamentals aren't as good as GIL - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Werner Vandewiele Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] NASDAQ behaviour Date: 03 Apr 2000 22:04:18 +0200 Dow +300. At 12:10 PM 03-04-00 -0700, you wrote: >Nasdaq losing almost 300 points yet on low volume -- how should we read >that? > >Question: > >70+ Billion came into the market in Feb/Mar. Where the heck is it going? > >Regards, >Shah > > >- Regards, <<< Werner Vandewiele >>> - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Earl Setser Subject: [CANSLIM] Well, Now What Oh Sages of CANSLIM? Date: 03 Apr 2000 16:01:22 -0600 So much for Friday's rally on the NAS. Today's action ran me out of my last 2 holdings. QCOM held up for a while, but couldn't take the late selling while NT had looked weaker, so I put a stop in that took me out early in the day. Any talk of a FT day after Friday's rally is dead after today's action. I'm 100% cash in my CANSLIM acct, and my fingers are a little crispy (as in burnt) from my last quick foray into the market. IBD has pointed out that we needed to look for a follow-through day AND leading stocks breaking out of solid bases. This last FT day looked good except few leading stocks had any significant bases at all! I'm going to go with Tom and try to be more cautious when jumping in this next time. In Saturday's IBD, they pointed out that the leading Industry Groups often change after a market correction. The example they used listed the top groups for the last 4 bull markets, based on the number of new highs on the FT day. In their example the banks and financial markets led in the first few, and tech clearly led in the Oct 99 rally. Do you guys use this indicator as the way to pick the new leaders? I have been concentrating on the top 20 IGPS. I believe this makes perfect sense once the trends are established by a runup, but I'm not sure this is the best approach at the very beginning of a rally. Some people seem to look at relative movement on the IGP listing. Is that what you guys think is best? I've looked at a few notable moves in IGP ranking during the last 3 months. Note that I only looked at groups that are now ranked "A". I looked for movements of 10 or so positions in the top groups, and 30+ positions for the lower groups. Does this make sense? - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Matt Robinson" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] NASDAQ behaviour Date: 03 Apr 2000 16:15:34 -0400 I wouldn't focus on the volume being less than its been the last few days. Yea, I think this is positive, but things do not look good. Support in the 4350-4400 range broke. It appeared that the Naz paused at 4300, but then boom. Obviously, Microsoft is a significant factor in the drop. The high flyers of the internet sector got ripped as well (B2B, B2C, and some of the infrastructure). The Russell held up better than the Nasdaq, but not great. Where is the money going? Check out anything on the NYSE? Regards Matt ----- Original Message ----- Sent: Monday, April 03, 2000 3:10 PM > > Nasdaq losing almost 300 points yet on low volume -- how should we read > that? > > Question: > > 70+ Billion came into the market in Feb/Mar. Where the heck is it going? > > Regards, > Shah > > > - > __________________________________________________ Do You Yahoo!? Talk to your friends online with Yahoo! Messenger. http://im.yahoo.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: [CANSLIM] When I'm way wrong, I try to admit it! Date: 03 Apr 2000 23:42:42 -0400 OK, OK, obviously Thursday wasn't the shakeout day on Naz like I thought. Back to the drawing boards for further study. And besides, AAARRRRRGGGG!!!!, three buy limits and none of them got done! I've already challenged Schwab on one that should have been executed as far as I can tell, will be interesting to read their wimpy answer. But one was up 19.7% (VLAB, small cap, even smaller price). Drat! Nice base, will have to study to see if I chase it or wait. Probably wait in this market, and look for another nice base. And those are few and far between. Guess that's the price I'll have to pay for trying to steal it. Still, somewhat comforting that I can still find some nice ones in this mess. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: DODGERB@aol.com Subject: [CANSLIM] JDSU Cup and Handle Date: 03 Apr 2000 23:55:29 EDT Check this one out. Company will announce "IMPORTANT" announcement tomorrow. If CANSLIM is right. It should be a good new. What do guy think? Thanks Piti - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Re:AMK Date: 03 Apr 2000 23:51:03 -0400 Considering it's a small cap, with a float of only 1.4 mio shares, I likely would have tried to steal it while still in the base of 35 and change. On the volume today, if I really wanted it, I wouldn't have hesitated at 36 and change as it beat Friday's close. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html ----- Original Message ----- Sent: Monday, April 03, 2000 9:56 AM Hi! AMK's volume is already at 2/3rd of ave volume. What do you consider to be the correct pivot point? AMK looks pretty good from a CANSLIM fundie standpoint. It was featured on the Internet and Technology page in Monday's IBD (and maybe that's where you saw it!) Numbers are 95/95/ABB and it's in the Elec-Misc Components group, presently ranked number 13. From a technical standpoint, it's been basing for about 6 weeks since hitting a high in mid-Feb, and has been above the closing low for about 6 days, hence it could be working on the right side of a cup. This is a good one to watch for a possible B/O given another FT day on the NAS. At 10:09 AM 4/1/00 -0800, you wrote: >Interesting how things change from one person to the next. > >I have a new stock for our watch list. Check on AMK. Let me know what you >think. >Thanks for all the other info. > >Susan >-----Original Message----- >From: Catherine M. Wilson >To: canslim@lists.xmission.com >Date: Saturday, April 01, 2000 8:58 AM >Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Re: > > >>Patrick Wahl wrote: >> >>> I didn't see this, but someone else told me some Nobel Prize >>> winning economist from MIT was on CNBC yesterday, and he said >>> there is no question we are in a speculative bubble regarding tech >>> stocks, and those things always end badly. Its the old greater fool >>> theory, but when that thinking changes, people will be quick to >>> unload their stocks at any price. This is all second hand, so I may >>> be misquoting a bit here. >> >>I saw the interview, and my perception was that he >>was talking about Internet stocks with enormous >>valuations and no earnings--the stocks that have >>doubled and tripled over the last 3 to 6 months. >>I think, however, that many people wouldn't have >>picked up that he was talking about this particular >>group of stocks. I've heard his remarks reported >>on CNBC as referring to all Internet-related stocks, >>and, as Patrick says above, people will tend to >>generalize his remarks to all tech stocks, which >>isn't what he was talking about at all. >> >>Kit >> >>- >> >> > > >- > > > - - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] NASDAQ behaviour Date: 04 Apr 2000 00:03:57 -0400 There are a few of us "old duffers" still left that still consider 1.7 billion shares as something more than "low volume", esp when it's actually pretty heavy compared to the past two weeks of volatile action. On a more pertinent point, we really needed a follow thru day of any kind of volume, not one that undercut the short base of mid Feb. Granted, the news on MSFT probably was the greatest influence rather than technical performance, but still damage was done today. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html ----- Original Message ----- Sent: Monday, April 03, 2000 3:10 PM Nasdaq losing almost 300 points yet on low volume -- how should we read that? Question: 70+ Billion came into the market in Feb/Mar. Where the heck is it going? Regards, Shah - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Earl Setser Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] JDSU Cup and Handle Date: 03 Apr 2000 22:30:53 -0600 Why do you think CANSLIM indicates this would be good news??? I don't remember WON guessing at future announcements at all!! At 11:55 PM 4/3/00 EDT, you wrote: >Check this one out. Company will announce "IMPORTANT" announcement tomorrow. >If CANSLIM is right. It should be a good new. What do guy think? > >Thanks >Piti > >- > > > - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] JDSU Cup and Handle Date: 04 Apr 2000 00:31:08 -0400 Sorry, Piti, but I don't see anything that says "CANSLIM buy" on this chart right now. Rather, I see a stock in decline/retreat, with a very high PE (over 400 right now, even 200 forward looking), which are the ones mostly taking this beating. Today's drop percentage wise is even greater than Nasdaq's, and that's a lot. I definitely don't see any cup and handle on this. And with some of the recent bad news, it has that to overcome as well. I certainly would not be buying anything in this market solely on news anticipation, or even released news. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html ----- Original Message ----- Sent: Monday, April 03, 2000 11:55 PM Check this one out. Company will announce "IMPORTANT" announcement tomorrow. If CANSLIM is right. It should be a good new. What do guy think? Thanks Piti - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Bill Triffet" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] JDSU - in this market??? Date: 03 Apr 2000 21:50:11 -0700 I would call that trading on news or "speculating". I might use it as a point to sell an issue or buy IF it has a proper base ( JDSU looks a bit steep in the price decent). Perhaps you should consider the general market indicators - lots of cash going out of techs into the "older economy" stocks. If I was putting any cash into the market right now, it would not be techs - at least not yet. This could all change rather quickly so never say never. Wait for a follow-thru day and try to find something with a base. Remember, If you hold cash while the general market is going down - it's kind of like making money. That's how I get through my bear periods. (g) -Bill ----- Original Message ----- Sent: Monday, April 03, 2000 8:55 PM > Check this one out. Company will announce "IMPORTANT" announcement tomorrow. > If CANSLIM is right. It should be a good new. What do guy think? > > Thanks > Piti > > - > > - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Brian Bellamy Subject: [CANSLIM] Intro Brian Bellamy Date: 04 Apr 2000 00:59:04 -0400 Hello all, I've been lurking and learning for a year or two now. Thanks to this forum I have become much more profitable in my investing over the past year. Of course, the huge run of the NASDQ helped. I will attempt to begin contributing as I have thoughts. I am now watching several stocks hoping that they will form nice, long, tight bases during this tech correction. I see XLNX, AMCC, BBRC, CMGI, DITC, JDSU, ORCL, PRLX, QCOM, SDLI, SNDK, SMTC, and WORK (really) as my strongest candidates for future buys when they are done consolidating. Also, did anyone buy or consider buying AMK on the breakout on 4/3/00. Any comments, additions, or subtractions, to/from this watch list would be appreciated. Yours truly, Brian Bellamy - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Intro Brian Bellamy Date: 04 Apr 2000 01:10:03 -0400 Welcome to the group, Brian, This is a good time to be "watching"! Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html ----- Original Message ----- Sent: Tuesday, April 04, 2000 12:59 AM Hello all, I've been lurking and learning for a year or two now. Thanks to this forum I have become much more profitable in my investing over the past year. Of course, the huge run of the NASDQ helped. I will attempt to begin contributing as I have thoughts. I am now watching several stocks hoping that they will form nice, long, tight bases during this tech correction. I see XLNX, AMCC, BBRC, CMGI, DITC, JDSU, ORCL, PRLX, QCOM, SDLI, SNDK, SMTC, and WORK (really) as my strongest candidates for future buys when they are done consolidating. Also, did anyone buy or consider buying AMK on the breakout on 4/3/00. Any comments, additions, or subtractions, to/from this watch list would be appreciated. Yours truly, Brian Bellamy - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Earl Setser Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Intro Brian Bellamy Date: 04 Apr 2000 09:10:47 -0600 Well, you have a nice list with many of the recent leaders included. I think I've been watching most of the stocks on your list to some extent except for CMGI and WORK. CMGI is a stock I profited on some time back (pre-CANSLIM), but it only has a 12 EPS rating, so it doesn't pass on this test. WORK on the other hand has nice CANSLIM numbers at 99/85/CAB. I haven't seen it since I only look at A ranked Industry Groups, but it looks good otherwise. The group it's in is Commercial Services-Printing. This group is ranked 93, but seems to be moving down (was 68 6 months ago). What is your CANSLIM reasoning on these two stocks? At 12:59 AM 4/4/00 -0400, you wrote: >Hello all, I've been lurking and learning for a year or two now. Thanks >to this forum I have become much more profitable in my investing over >the past year. Of course, the huge run of the NASDQ helped. I will >attempt to begin contributing as I have thoughts. I am now watching >several stocks hoping that they will form nice, long, tight bases during >this tech correction. I see XLNX, AMCC, BBRC, CMGI, DITC, JDSU, ORCL, >PRLX, QCOM, SDLI, SNDK, SMTC, and WORK (really) as my strongest >candidates for future buys when they are done consolidating. Also, did >anyone buy or consider buying AMK on the breakout on 4/3/00. Any >comments, additions, or subtractions, to/from this watch list would be >appreciated. > >Yours truly, >Brian Bellamy > > >- > > > - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: han.26@osu.edu Subject: [CANSLIM] Market direction Date: 04 Apr 2000 11:05:30 -0700 I should be paranoid, especially since I'm 100% invested during a heavy correction, however, my two stocks, DSPG& CSCO, are still above my purchase points of [DSPG=]53 & [CSCO=]65. Since both HAD catapaulted up more than 20% after my purchase (BEFORE the correction), I am taking WON's advice to hold onto them at least for the full 8 weeks (bought on 2/28 & 3/13)--unless, of course, they fall to 8% below the purchase price. Considering the rapidity of the NAZ drop, I'm surprised how RELATIVELY well [yes, they're still taking hits, just not as bad as the overall NAZ] DSPG& CSCO are holding up. It makes me think these are very strong stocks, BUT I'm not sure how long they can continue to resist the NAZ's downward pull. Will they be able to remain above the mandatory sell point? Is anyone else still fully NASDAQ invested, or has the Market forced everyone into cash or NYSE stocks? Jim--- - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Earl Setser Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Market direction Date: 04 Apr 2000 09:14:10 -0600 If memory serves, WON also said that once a stock has moved higher, never let it turn back for a loss. I generally try to set a mental stop just above the purchase price for any stock that has closed up 15% or more. I think WON's approach on these two would be to try to sell just above the buy price if they retrace all of the gains. At 11:05 AM 4/4/00 -0700, you wrote: >I should be paranoid, especially since I'm 100% invested during a heavy correction, however, my two stocks, DSPG& CSCO, are still above my purchase points of [DSPG=]53 & [CSCO=]65. Since both HAD catapaulted up more than 20% after my purchase (BEFORE the correction), I am taking WON's advice to hold onto them at least for the full 8 weeks (bought on 2/28 & 3/13)--unless, >of course, they fall to 8% below the purchase price. > >Considering the rapidity of the NAZ drop, I'm surprised how RELATIVELY well [yes, they're still taking hits, just not as bad as the overall NAZ] DSPG& CSCO are holding up. It makes me think these are very strong stocks, BUT I'm not sure how long they can continue to resist the NAZ's downward pull. Will they be able to remain above the mandatory sell point? > >Is anyone else still fully NASDAQ invested, or has the Market forced everyone into cash or NYSE stocks? > >Jim--- > > > >- > > > - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Tim Fisher Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Intro Brian Bellamy Date: 04 Apr 2000 08:28:03 -0700 On 09:59 PM 4/3/00 , Brian Bellamy Said: >Also, did >anyone buy or consider buying AMK on the breakout on 4/3/00. Any >comments, additions, or subtractions, to/from this watch list would be >appreciated. > >Yours truly, >Brian Bellamy Yes. Didn't do it - no M. Why fight the market? Tim Fisher Ore-Rock-On and Pacific Fishery Biologists WWW Sites Tim@OreRockOn.com WWW: http://OreRockOn.com See naked fish and rocks! - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Wahl, Patrick" Subject: [CANSLIM] wow Date: 04 Apr 2000 10:12:12 -0600 I don't really have anything to say, just that I looked at the nasdaq a few minutes ago and it was down 190, it is now down 322, its very odd that investors perceptions can change so fast, so that what looked like a reasonable investment (a tech stock) a few weeks ago now looks like something to be avoided. I guess the bright side is we can start to look for some bases to form. Guess the market can't drop 7% everyday for too long. - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Charles Dille" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] wow Date: 04 Apr 2000 11:32:38 -0500 100 Divided By 7 = About 14 More Days. ----- Original Message ----- Sent: Tuesday, April 04, 2000 11:12 AM > I don't really have anything to say, just that I looked at the nasdaq a few > minutes ago and it was down 190, it is now down 322, its very odd that > investors perceptions can change so fast, so that what looked like a > reasonable investment (a tech stock) a few weeks ago now looks like > something to be avoided. I guess the bright side is we can start to look > for some bases to form. Guess the market can't drop 7% everyday for too > long. > > - > > - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Tim Fisher Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] wow Date: 04 Apr 2000 09:43:57 -0700 It was already down 17% as of yesterday's close. That leaves less than 12 days. On 09:32 AM 4/4/00 , Charles Dille Said: >100 Divided By 7 = About 14 More Days. >----- Original Message ----- >From: Wahl, Patrick >To: 'Canslim' >Sent: Tuesday, April 04, 2000 11:12 AM >Subject: [CANSLIM] wow > > > > I don't really have anything to say, just that I looked at the nasdaq a >few > > minutes ago and it was down 190, it is now down 322, its very odd that > > investors perceptions can change so fast, so that what looked like a > > reasonable investment (a tech stock) a few weeks ago now looks like > > something to be avoided. I guess the bright side is we can start to look > > for some bases to form. Guess the market can't drop 7% everyday for too > > long. > > > > - > > > > > > >- Tim Fisher Ore-Rock-On and Pacific Fishery Biologists WWW Sites Tim@OreRockOn.com WWW: http://OreRockOn.com See naked fish and rocks! - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Charles Dille" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] wow Date: 04 Apr 2000 11:48:55 -0500 At this rate I give it only about 5 more days and my investements will equal ZERO just like the NAZ ----- Original Message ----- Sent: Tuesday, April 04, 2000 11:43 AM > It was already down 17% as of yesterday's close. That leaves less than 12 days. > > On 09:32 AM 4/4/00 , Charles Dille Said: > >100 Divided By 7 = About 14 More Days. > >----- Original Message ----- > >From: Wahl, Patrick > >To: 'Canslim' > >Sent: Tuesday, April 04, 2000 11:12 AM > >Subject: [CANSLIM] wow > > > > > > > I don't really have anything to say, just that I looked at the nasdaq a > >few > > > minutes ago and it was down 190, it is now down 322, its very odd that > > > investors perceptions can change so fast, so that what looked like a > > > reasonable investment (a tech stock) a few weeks ago now looks like > > > something to be avoided. I guess the bright side is we can start to look > > > for some bases to form. Guess the market can't drop 7% everyday for too > > > long. > > > > > > - > > > > > > > > > > > >- > > Tim Fisher > Ore-Rock-On and Pacific Fishery Biologists WWW Sites > > Tim@OreRockOn.com > WWW: http://OreRockOn.com > See naked fish and rocks! > > > - > > - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Market direction Date: 04 Apr 2000 09:01:34 -0700 Generally I have been forced into cash, although as I was watching the NAZ getting whacked, I decided to look at the NYSE to see what I could come up with...came up with PFE and decided to nibble. IBD numbers are 94 57 AAA (the RS of 57 is low but has been rising rapidly...was 49 one day earlier)...stock had a B/O from a double bottom yesterday on good volume and it continues today. I figure the pivot to be around 38 1/8 with the 5% extended price at 40. BOT at 39 1/2. Not sure if this is kosher CANSLIM with RS being low, but it is a nice looking double bottom and B/O. Regards, Ziggy > at 11:05 on 4/4/00 you wrote snip > , > >Is anyone else still fully NASDAQ invested, or has the Market forced > everyone into cash or NYSE stocks? > > > >Jim--- > > > > > > > >- > > > > > > > > - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Tim Fisher Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Market direction Date: 04 Apr 2000 10:21:23 -0700 Breakout to what, exactly? 40 is still 10 pts under the old high... On 09:01 AM 4/4/00 , wroblewski@uswest.net Said: >Generally I have been forced into cash, although as I was watching the NAZ >getting whacked, I decided to look at the NYSE to see what I could come up >with...came up with PFE and decided to nibble. IBD numbers are 94 57 AAA >(the RS >of 57 is low but has been rising rapidly...was 49 one day earlier)...stock >had a >B/O from a double bottom yesterday on good volume and it continues today. >I figure the pivot to be around 38 1/8 with the 5% extended price at 40. >BOT at >39 1/2. Not sure if this is kosher CANSLIM with RS being low, but it is a nice >looking double bottom and B/O. > >Regards, >Ziggy > > > at 11:05 on 4/4/00 you wrote > >snip > > > , > > >Is anyone else still fully NASDAQ invested, or has the Market forced > > everyone into cash or NYSE stocks? > > > > > >Jim--- > > > > > > > > > > > >- > > > > > > > > > > > > > - > > >- Tim Fisher Ore-Rock-On and Pacific Fishery Biologists WWW Sites Tim@OreRockOn.com WWW: http://OreRockOn.com See naked fish and rocks! - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Earl Setser Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Market direction Date: 04 Apr 2000 12:43:04 -0600 It looks to me like a cup and handle B/O. The problem is that the handle formed below the mid-point of the cup. I think it's the low of the handle (or maybe it was the middle), that needs to be above the middle of the cup. I make the middle of the cup at about 40 (high 50, low 30). Given this, I would say the handle is a little low. I bought APEX late last year and watched in form a handle, go up, another handle, go up, etc for about 4 or 5 times total before hitting it's new high. The advantage is a handle gets you in earlier than a new high. The problem with lower handles is that the level of overhead resistance increases as the handles gets lower in the cup, and I would guess this leads to more failures. (My opinion only except for the middle of the cup part.) At 10:21 AM 4/4/00 -0700, you wrote: >Breakout to what, exactly? 40 is still 10 pts under the old high... > >On 09:01 AM 4/4/00 , wroblewski@uswest.net Said: >>Generally I have been forced into cash, although as I was watching the NAZ >>getting whacked, I decided to look at the NYSE to see what I could come up >>with...came up with PFE and decided to nibble. IBD numbers are 94 57 AAA >>(the RS >>of 57 is low but has been rising rapidly...was 49 one day earlier)...stock >>had a >>B/O from a double bottom yesterday on good volume and it continues today. >>I figure the pivot to be around 38 1/8 with the 5% extended price at 40. >>BOT at >>39 1/2. Not sure if this is kosher CANSLIM with RS being low, but it is a nice >>looking double bottom and B/O. >> >>Regards, >>Ziggy >> >> > at 11:05 on 4/4/00 you wrote >> >>snip >> >> > , >> > >Is anyone else still fully NASDAQ invested, or has the Market forced >> > everyone into cash or NYSE stocks? >> > > >> > >Jim--- >> > > >> > > >> > > >> > >- >> > > >> > > >> > > >> > >> > - >> >> >>- > >Tim Fisher >Ore-Rock-On and Pacific Fishery Biologists WWW Sites > >Tim@OreRockOn.com >WWW: http://OreRockOn.com >See naked fish and rocks! > > >- > > > - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Market direction Date: 04 Apr 2000 11:54:48 -0700 My understanding of WON's writings is: A stock does not have to be at an old high to be considered a B/O from a valid base...depending on the base, it is the high of the handle in the cup with handle...in the flat base it is a B/O from the high of that flat base...and, in a double bottom pattern, it is a B/O above the center of the "W" on volume. On page 53 of WON's "24 Essential Lessons For Investment Success", WON shows a double bottom where the left hand side of the "W" is approximately 25 1/2 and he calls the correct pivot point buy B/O at around 22 (about 16% below the previous high). On page 58 of "24 ELFIS", he shows how to spot a sound base (his words) showing PeopleSoft as an example...the "proper cup with handle" is shown where the previous high price of the stock was about 21 and he shows the B/O "correct buy point in this base is $18 1/2" (about 13% below the previous high). WON says "The optimal buy point of any stock is its 'pivot point,' the point at the end of a basing area when the stock price is breaking out into new high ground." I know he mentions "new high ground" several times in his writings, but when he shows examples it is clear to me that he is referring to a new high at the end of a proper base (with "end" being the keyword). So, I'm not sure your focusing of some "old high" is right....but I have to admit it is confusing reading the words "new high" so much and then seeing examples of proper bases and B/O's being less than a new high. IMHO Ziggy Tim Fisher wrote: > Breakout to what, exactly? 40 is still 10 pts under the old high... > > On 09:01 AM 4/4/00 , wroblewski@uswest.net Said: > >Generally I have been forced into cash, although as I was watching the NAZ > >getting whacked, I decided to look at the NYSE to see what I could come up > >with...came up with PFE and decided to nibble. IBD numbers are 94 57 AAA > >(the RS > >of 57 is low but has been rising rapidly...was 49 one day earlier)...stock > >had a > >B/O from a double bottom yesterday on good volume and it continues today. > >I figure the pivot to be around 38 1/8 with the 5% extended price at 40. > >BOT at > >39 1/2. Not sure if this is kosher CANSLIM with RS being low, but it is a nice > >looking double bottom and B/O. > > > >Regards, > >Ziggy > > > > > at 11:05 on 4/4/00 you wrote > > > >snip > > > > > , > > > >Is anyone else still fully NASDAQ invested, or has the Market forced > > > everyone into cash or NYSE stocks? > > > > > > > >Jim--- > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > >- > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > - > > > > > >- > > Tim Fisher > Ore-Rock-On and Pacific Fishery Biologists WWW Sites > > Tim@OreRockOn.com > WWW: http://OreRockOn.com > See naked fish and rocks! > > - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: han.26@osu.edu Subject: [CANSLIM] Wild Ride! Date: 04 Apr 2000 17:14:35 -0700 DSPG had a 40% variation intraday! Using the 8% loss rule INTRADAY and not waiting until closing, I'd have lost almost the full 40%. Because it was held until close, however, the stock not only retraced it's loss, but [net] gained 10.54% on the day. I've only been in the market since1997; that is by far the most manic-depressive activity I've ever witnessed. - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Matt Robinson" Subject: [CANSLIM] Stock that Have Held Up Date: 04 Apr 2000 08:39:54 -0400 I think now would be a good time to run through leading stocks that have held up the best. One gets the best idea of true or future market leaders in a correction or bear market, respectively. I personally don't see any of the larger leaders that have held up well. Some of the "blue chip" tech names haven't done too badly, INTC doesn't look that bad, but I was looking for more "high power" stocks as well. NASI could be beginning to base around 21. Many of the smaller names that have been favorites of CANSLIMers have gotten ripped, such as XETA. Regards Matt __________________________________________________ Do You Yahoo!? Talk to your friends online with Yahoo! Messenger. http://im.yahoo.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "walter nusbaum" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] wow Date: 04 Apr 2000 17:05:00 -0500 ----- Original Message ----- Sent: Tuesday, April 04, 2000 11:32 AM > 100 Divided By 7 = About 14 More Days. Charles, Ummm, it doesn't quite work that way. A 7% loss from a base of 100 would leave 93. A further 7% loss would leave 86.49, etc., etc. Theoretically, it'll never get to zero. In 14 days, the base would be reduced to about 36. Best wishes, Walt > ----- Original Message ----- > From: Wahl, Patrick > To: 'Canslim' > Sent: Tuesday, April 04, 2000 11:12 AM > Subject: [CANSLIM] wow (Snip) > I guess the bright side is we can start to look > > for some bases to form. Guess the market can't drop 7% everyday for too > > long. - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Dwayne Andras" Subject: [CANSLIM] Any thoughts TLGD?? Date: 04 Apr 2000 20:12:35 -0500 Any thought's on TLGD??? I got in today at 36....now 52+....Earnings are due out on the 13 of April....Not a classic chart, but the ratings are nice and it held up real good today when everything went south. Bottom near lunch time with very small volume. Any thoughts???? Dwayne P. Andras DeeAndras@cajun.net - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Market direction Date: 05 Apr 2000 00:07:32 -0400 Hi Jim, I was about a third in cash till today, having pulled the plug on the weakest stock, and also bailed on one I want long term but had news I expected would create a selloff (it did, hours after I snuck out). I did two buys today (both closed bid at or better than my purchase price, yeah!), so I'm now better than 90% invested again (one was the one I want long term, saved myself $3.50/share getting out and waiting, finally took an action, and it proved correct, another yeah!). Gosh, that's four trades executed already this year, I'm getting active again. Watch out, market. And what a fun filled, "A" ticket roller coaster ride this was today. But what a solid rally in late afternoon, I'm looking forward to tomorrow, tho futures still ugly at this hour. I wonder how many records were busted today, total pts down, percentage down, volume, pts range of the day, etc?? Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html ----- Original Message ----- Sent: Tuesday, April 04, 2000 2:05 PM I should be paranoid, especially since I'm 100% invested during a heavy correction, however, my two stocks, DSPG& CSCO, are still above my purchase points of [DSPG=]53 & [CSCO=]65. Since both HAD catapaulted up more than 20% after my purchase (BEFORE the correction), I am taking WON's advice to hold onto them at least for the full 8 weeks (bought on 2/28 & 3/13)--unless, of course, they fall to 8% below the purchase price. Considering the rapidity of the NAZ drop, I'm surprised how RELATIVELY well [yes, they're still taking hits, just not as bad as the overall NAZ] DSPG& CSCO are holding up. It makes me think these are very strong stocks, BUT I'm not sure how long they can continue to resist the NAZ's downward pull. Will they be able to remain above the mandatory sell point? Is anyone else still fully NASDAQ invested, or has the Market forced everyone into cash or NYSE stocks? Jim--- - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] wow Date: 05 Apr 2000 00:10:37 -0400 Yeah, but when it does 13% in one day, it does it twice as fast. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html ----- Original Message ----- Sent: Tuesday, April 04, 2000 12:12 PM I don't really have anything to say, just that I looked at the nasdaq a few minutes ago and it was down 190, it is now down 322, its very odd that investors perceptions can change so fast, so that what looked like a reasonable investment (a tech stock) a few weeks ago now looks like something to be avoided. I guess the bright side is we can start to look for some bases to form. Guess the market can't drop 7% everyday for too long. - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Market direction Date: 05 Apr 2000 00:25:42 -0400 Excellent presentation, Ziggy, and I totally concur. The only advantage of getting both a proper b/o from a base concurrent with a true new 12 month high (and it's important to recognize that WON only uses 12 mos for highs) is that the new high also gives you the "N" so you don't have to be an expert on their industry, products or service to meet this element. Of course, a new high (whether 12 mos or forever) is also deemed to mean that there is no overhead resistance. But of course, there's always those nasty shorters, profit takers, value shoppers that bot cheap, etc. So even when there's no "overhead resistance", I find there's always going to be sellers. That's the way the market works. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html ----- Original Message ----- Sent: Tuesday, April 04, 2000 2:54 PM My understanding of WON's writings is: A stock does not have to be at an old high to be considered a B/O from a valid base...depending on the base, it is the high of the handle in the cup with handle...in the flat base it is a B/O from the high of that flat base...and, in a double bottom pattern, it is a B/O above the center of the "W" on volume. On page 53 of WON's "24 Essential Lessons For Investment Success", WON shows a double bottom where the left hand side of the "W" is approximately 25 1/2 and he calls the correct pivot point buy B/O at around 22 (about 16% below the previous high). On page 58 of "24 ELFIS", he shows how to spot a sound base (his words) showing PeopleSoft as an example...the "proper cup with handle" is shown where the previous high price of the stock was about 21 and he shows the B/O "correct buy point in this base is $18 1/2" (about 13% below the previous high). WON says "The optimal buy point of any stock is its 'pivot point,' the point at the end of a basing area when the stock price is breaking out into new high ground." I know he mentions "new high ground" several times in his writings, but when he shows examples it is clear to me that he is referring to a new high at the end of a proper base (with "end" being the keyword). So, I'm not sure your focusing of some "old high" is right....but I have to admit it is confusing reading the words "new high" so much and then seeing examples of proper bases and B/O's being less than a new high. IMHO Ziggy Tim Fisher wrote: > Breakout to what, exactly? 40 is still 10 pts under the old high... > > On 09:01 AM 4/4/00 , wroblewski@uswest.net Said: > >Generally I have been forced into cash, although as I was watching the NAZ > >getting whacked, I decided to look at the NYSE to see what I could come up > >with...came up with PFE and decided to nibble. IBD numbers are 94 57 AAA > >(the RS > >of 57 is low but has been rising rapidly...was 49 one day earlier)...stock > >had a > >B/O from a double bottom yesterday on good volume and it continues today. > >I figure the pivot to be around 38 1/8 with the 5% extended price at 40. > >BOT at > >39 1/2. Not sure if this is kosher CANSLIM with RS being low, but it is a nice > >looking double bottom and B/O. > > > >Regards, > >Ziggy > > > > > at 11:05 on 4/4/00 you wrote > > > >snip > > > > > , > > > >Is anyone else still fully NASDAQ invested, or has the Market forced > > > everyone into cash or NYSE stocks? > > > > > > > >Jim--- > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > >- > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > - > > > > > >- > > Tim Fisher > Ore-Rock-On and Pacific Fishery Biologists WWW Sites > > Tim@OreRockOn.com > WWW: http://OreRockOn.com > See naked fish and rocks! > > - - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "David S. Pinhasik" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Stock that Have Held Up Date: 05 Apr 2000 08:49:21 +0300 Take a look at these: PWAV up 5% on 1.9 ADV QLGC up 7.64% on 3.4 ADV AMAT up 9.94% on 2.8 ADV SNRA up 9.75% on 2.7 ADV ARMHY up 29.5% on 3.5 ADV CREE up 7.68% on 2 ADV ADVS up 13.1% on 3.6 ADV CTSH up 4.28% on 1.9 ADV David ----- Original Message ----- Sent: Tuesday, April 04, 2000 3:39 PM > I think now would be a good time to run through leading stocks that have > held up the best. One gets the best idea of true or future market leaders in > a correction or bear market, respectively. I personally don't see any of > the larger leaders that have held up well. Some of the "blue chip" tech > names haven't done too badly, INTC doesn't look that bad, but I was looking > for more "high power" stocks as well. > > NASI could be beginning to base around 21. Many of the smaller names that > have been favorites of CANSLIMers have gotten ripped, such as XETA. > > Regards > Matt > > > __________________________________________________ > Do You Yahoo!? > Talk to your friends online with Yahoo! Messenger. > http://im.yahoo.com > > - > - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Surindra J. Singh" Subject: [CANSLIM] Where is Johan Date: 05 Apr 2000 03:59:17 -0400 (EDT) I have not read any comments from Johan for a long time. Where is he hiding? You wrote: [CANSLIM] Funniest comments from a bear site Date: Sat, 08 Jan 2000 23:59:07 +0100 From: Johan Van Houtven Reply-To: canslim@lists.xmission.com To: canslim@lists.xmission.com I had a good chuckle when I read this. Should have posted this on Wednesday, but couldn't. Just set your mind back to that day and enjoy: >From bearfiend.com: --- start of quote --- I was amused by the collective wisdom doled out by the financial media on Tuesday. From Reuters to CNBC, you read or heard the same platitudes over and over. Here are twelve of them off the top of my head: 1. The decline was orderly. What does a disorderly decline look like? Do the floor traders start fighting with each other over bids? I can just see CNBC's Bob Pisani (what a weasel) reporting on a disorderly day: "I'm here at the NYSE with the Dow down over 900 points. If you look behind me, you will see that there is a riot in progress on the floor. The decline is very disorderly and the police have been summoned." 2. The fundamentals for the bull market are still intact. What fundamentals?! The fundamentals of a speculative mania? There haven't been any rational fundamentals in the past three years or more. 3. I'm not worried. Heh, heh. Of course no one is worried as long as they think they can sell out before the next guy who isn't worried either. 4. Its profit taking. Unless you bought in near the top. Someone got stuck with Qualcomm at 200 and Yahoo! at 500. Large sell-offs always start with profit taking. 5. The selling was tax related. Yeah, but no one mentioned this prior to the start of the year. It also seems a bit crazy to attribute the intense selling to individual investors. There wasn't even any evidence...it just sounded good so they media ran with it. 6. Its just a normal correction not the start of a bear market. Such statements are always made prior to the start of a bear market. 7. The decline is healthy. An all time favorite! The rise is healthy, the decline is healthy! I don't recall any Bulls being concerned over the run ups in the Internet issues. I mean would Joe Battipaglia say: "I was really bullish before, but Yahoo!'s move above 400 was really unhealthy for the stock market." The decline is healthy would be like telling an amputee that at least they lost weight. 8. The decline was due to interest rate jitters. Investors just figured out that interest rates are going up?! The yield for the 30 year treasury has risen from 4.7% to 6.6% since October of 1998 but investors wait until now to sell? The Fed raised interest rates three times late last year but the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq all hit new records anyway. 9. There is no panic. Not yet anyway. Get back to us when the Dow loses 1,000 points in a day. 10. The decline was expected. ...by hardly anyone. Everyone was pretty darn bullish to start the year. Even the Bears sounded bullish and the Bulls were certain that after Y2K, a ton of money would come pouring into the stock market. 11. It is a buying opportunity. Only if there is another recovery. If there is no recovery, it would have been a selling opportunity. 12. The Dow/Nasdaq/S&P 500 is off its lows for the day. Even if the indexes were just a few points off their low, this was CNBC's favorite and it is what you heard most until the close. I get the impression that if the Dow had a session low of a loss of 1,000 points and finished 950 points lower, the CNBC air heads would still say it ended "off its lows." --- end of quote --- Some of the comments look familiar? Maybe some on this thread have been stating similar things? B^) -- Johan - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Any thoughts TLGD?? Date: 05 Apr 2000 01:04:40 -0400 Hi Dwayne, I'm not sure how you define "held up well" since the low on 4/3 was 39.50, it traded today down to 31.50 (something like a further 20% drop, and well beyond the excesses of Naz), and you bot about 10% below yesterday's low. I congratulate you on taking the risk, and picking this off the bottom, or nearly so, but viewing this one in the calmness of a closed and quiet market, I can't see a reason to have bought it other than momentum. It soundly broke thru it's short 2+ week base at 40, and it closed in it's even shorter base at 50+. Had I been so lucky/skilled/quick/agile/brave/risk taking as you, I likely would already be out with a fast same day profit of ten pts or better, and glad for it. Looking at the broader "CANSLIM" picture, I note that even with today's volume counting on the up side of the up/down ratio, it still is only at 1.2 ratio. Other CS elements look strong, however the earnings and revenues only shot up in the past two qtrs. Before that, it was pretty flat. And the analyst's consensus estimates on earnings for both this year and next is just under 20%. Granted, it's group (Telecom Equip) is strong at GRS 99, but that can change in a heartbeat. I would use a tight stop and make sure you are able to grab a fast quick trade for a healthy profit if this one decides to back off, or stagnate. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html ----- Original Message ----- Sent: Tuesday, April 04, 2000 9:12 PM Any thought's on TLGD??? I got in today at 36....now 52+....Earnings are due out on the 13 of April....Not a classic chart, but the ratings are nice and it held up real good today when everything went south. Bottom near lunch time with very small volume. Any thoughts???? Dwayne P. Andras DeeAndras@cajun.net - - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: [CANSLIM] Here we go again! Date: 05 Apr 2000 07:14:02 -0400 It ain't over till it's over, and that isn't yet. Naz futures with 2.5 hours to go down nearly 3%, mirroring drops across Europe. And Asia bleed some red ink overnight. Looks like another "blue light" special day coming. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Dwayne Andras" Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] Any thoughts TLGD?? Date: 05 Apr 2000 07:57:20 -0500 Tom Thanks for your reply. I really appreciate your added wisdom to the list. I am always learning. Thanks again Dwayne P. Andras DeeAndras@cajun.net -----Original Message----- [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of Tom Worley Sent: Wednesday, April 05, 2000 12:05 AM Hi Dwayne, I'm not sure how you define "held up well" since the low on 4/3 was 39.50, it traded today down to 31.50 (something like a further 20% drop, and well beyond the excesses of Naz), and you bot about 10% below yesterday's low. I congratulate you on taking the risk, and picking this off the bottom, or nearly so, but viewing this one in the calmness of a closed and quiet market, I can't see a reason to have bought it other than momentum. It soundly broke thru it's short 2+ week base at 40, and it closed in it's even shorter base at 50+. Had I been so lucky/skilled/quick/agile/brave/risk taking as you, I likely would already be out with a fast same day profit of ten pts or better, and glad for it. Looking at the broader "CANSLIM" picture, I note that even with today's volume counting on the up side of the up/down ratio, it still is only at 1.2 ratio. Other CS elements look strong, however the earnings and revenues only shot up in the past two qtrs. Before that, it was pretty flat. And the analyst's consensus estimates on earnings for both this year and next is just under 20%. Granted, it's group (Telecom Equip) is strong at GRS 99, but that can change in a heartbeat. I would use a tight stop and make sure you are able to grab a fast quick trade for a healthy profit if this one decides to back off, or stagnate. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html ----- Original Message ----- Sent: Tuesday, April 04, 2000 9:12 PM Any thought's on TLGD??? I got in today at 36....now 52+....Earnings are due out on the 13 of April....Not a classic chart, but the ratings are nice and it held up real good today when everything went south. Bottom near lunch time with very small volume. Any thoughts???? Dwayne P. Andras DeeAndras@cajun.net - - - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Mary Keener Subject: [CANSLIM] JDSU Cup and Handle Date: 05 Apr 2000 06:21:30 -0700 Piti, You wrote Not a good idea to buy on news. Market is down, this stock may have had its day in the sun. Be patient, watch, read and research. Hold onto your money until the general picture changes. Mary Thanks Piti - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Brian Bellamy Subject: [CANSLIM] CMGI, WORK Date: 05 Apr 2000 11:10:36 -0400 Both bases for CMGI and WORK appear to have broken down with the sell off of the NASDQ. I would like to see a long tight consolidation now before investing in these stock. My reason for including CMGI was that it despite the earnings, revenues have been increasing dramatically and much of the earnings depression may be attributable to investment by the company which may lead to future earnings and sales growth. With a good base and accelerating earnings, I considered CMGI a reasonable internet play. WORK, I was watching because of the 99 EPS, what was a fairly tight and long base, and the possibility that the group would be a leader when the next bull run begins. I admit that now the group appears to be weak. And, I would not consider the industry one with huge long-term prospects, but in the short term the group could come into favor. Well, you have a nice list with many of the recent leaders included. I think I've been watching most of the stocks on your list to some extent except for CMGI and WORK. CMGI is a stock I profited on some time back (pre-CANSLIM), but it only has a 12 EPS rating, so it doesn't pass on this test. WORK on the other hand has nice CANSLIM numbers at 99/85/CAB. I haven't seen it since I only look at A ranked Industry Groups, but it looks good otherwise. The group it's in is Commercial Services-Printing. This group is ranked 93, but seems to be moving down (was 68 6 months ago). What is your CANSLIM reasoning on these two stocks? At 12:59 AM 4/4/00 -0400, you wrote: >Hello all, I've been lurking and learning for a year or two now. Thanks >to this forum I have become much more profitable in my investing over >the past year. Of course, the huge run of the NASDQ helped. I will >attempt to begin contributing as I have thoughts. I am now watching >several stocks hoping that they will form nice, long, tight bases during >this tech correction. I see XLNX, AMCC, BBRC, CMGI, DITC, JDSU, ORCL, >PRLX, QCOM, SDLI, SNDK, SMTC, and WORK (really) as my strongest >candidates for future buys when they are done consolidating. Also, did >anyone buy or consider buying AMK on the breakout on 4/3/00. Any >comments, additions, or subtractions, to/from this watch list would be >appreciated. > >Yours truly, >Brian Bellamy - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Tim Fisher Subject: [CANSLIM] Re: PFE Date: 05 Apr 2000 08:21:57 -0700 Lost the original, but the reply to my question about PFE was that it didn't need to be a new high. My reply is that it needs to be within 15% of a new high, and it isn't. It wouldn't even pass my initial scan criteria. An RS of 52 is telling you that. Ian Woodward made that point very clearly in his forum yesterday. He is looking for leaders that have corrected less than 15% from their former highs while waiting for the confirmation of the bottom. Tim Fisher Ore-Rock-On and Pacific Fishery Biologists WWW Sites Tim@OreRockOn.com WWW: http://OreRockOn.com See naked fish and rocks! - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Tim Fisher Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Stock that Have Held Up Date: 05 Apr 2000 08:34:59 -0700 These have hardly held up. E.g. ARMHY had a high of 250 & closed at 180 yesterday. I think he was looking for charts like CSCO, ORCL, QCOM, NOK, ALTR, AMAT (see you had that one), JBL, MNMD, RSYS, SANM, ADBE. On 10:49 PM 4/4/00 , David S. Pinhasik Said: >Take a look at these: > >PWAV up 5% on 1.9 ADV >QLGC up 7.64% on 3.4 ADV >AMAT up 9.94% on 2.8 ADV >SNRA up 9.75% on 2.7 ADV >ARMHY up 29.5% on 3.5 ADV >CREE up 7.68% on 2 ADV >ADVS up 13.1% on 3.6 ADV >CTSH up 4.28% on 1.9 ADV > >David > > > > >----- Original Message ----- >From: Matt Robinson >To: >Sent: Tuesday, April 04, 2000 3:39 PM >Subject: [CANSLIM] Stock that Have Held Up > > > > I think now would be a good time to run through leading stocks that have > > held up the best. One gets the best idea of true or future market leaders >in > > a correction or bear market, respectively. I personally don't see any of > > the larger leaders that have held up well. Some of the "blue chip" tech > > names haven't done too badly, INTC doesn't look that bad, but I was >looking > > for more "high power" stocks as well. > > > > NASI could be beginning to base around 21. Many of the smaller names that > > have been favorites of CANSLIMers have gotten ripped, such as XETA. > > > > Regards > > Matt > > Tim Fisher Ore-Rock-On and Pacific Fishery Biologists WWW Sites Tim@OreRockOn.com WWW: http://OreRockOn.com See naked fish and rocks! - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Tim Fisher Subject: [CANSLIM] One watch list Date: 05 Apr 2000 15:45:46 -0700 Here's my eyeballed 'still-within-about-15%-of-the-high' watch list. Cobbed from other watch lists. ADBE ADCT ALTR AMAT AMCC ANEN APCC CSCO DIO DSPG JBL MNMD MXIM NATI NOK NT ORCL QCOM RSYS SANM SFA SMTC SUNW XLNX Disclaimer: I nibbled at AMAT & MNMD today. Tim Fisher Ore-Rock-On and Pacific Fishery Biologists WWW Sites Tim@OreRockOn.com WWW: http://OreRockOn.com See naked fish and rocks! - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: travis bolster Subject: [CANSLIM] PLMD Date: 05 Apr 2000 18:37:48 -0700 (PDT) I was wondering if anyone had thoughts on PLMD. I think the ratings are (96/94 ABA). They sell diabetes equipment through the mail and other medical supplies. Travis Bolster __________________________________________________ Do You Yahoo!? Talk to your friends online with Yahoo! Messenger. http://im.yahoo.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Dan Sutton" Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] PLMD Date: 05 Apr 2000 20:34:31 -0600 Polymedica is on my weekly watchlist....just waiting for a buy signal. Things I like about it: 4 Positive Earnings announcements out of the last 4 quarters 14 out of the past 20 quarters have had increases over year ago comparable ROE of 18.6 (or 16.8 depending on which source you look at) Earnings growth rate is increasing as compared to the 5 year growth rate Only about 10 million shares in Float Zacks is showing analyst recommendation of 1.22 (1 being the best, 5 being the worst) Using Ian Woodwards "Gas In Tank) method, the projected price target is about $76 Good EPS Rank Things I don't like: Over 65% Institutionally owned Revenue growth is slowing in comparison to the 5 year growth rate Cash Flow growth rate is slowing in comparison to the 5 year growth rate The support level looks to be in the $45 range I am waiting for a buy opportunity in the mid to high $40's -----Original Message----- [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of travis bolster Sent: Wednesday, April 05, 2000 7:38 PM I was wondering if anyone had thoughts on PLMD. I think the ratings are (96/94 ABA). They sell diabetes equipment through the mail and other medical supplies. Travis Bolster __________________________________________________ Do You Yahoo!? Talk to your friends online with Yahoo! Messenger. http://im.yahoo.com - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Dan Sutton" Subject: [CANSLIM] Additional Buy candidates Date: 05 Apr 2000 20:40:31 -0600 Here are a few more candidates: ZOMX Buy at tomorrows open at around $55. Target price $72 ORCL Buy at tomorrows open at around $78. Target price $93 LHSG Buy at tomorrows open at around $38. Target price $48 IKOS Buy at tomorrows open at around $11. Target price $19 ENE Buy at tomorrows open at around $66. Target price $80 - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: travis bolster Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] PLMD Date: 05 Apr 2000 19:52:13 -0700 (PDT) Dan, great info just curious about why the institutional holdings bother you? Also, why would you want to buy in the 40's when its off its 52 week high? Travis --- Dan Sutton wrote: > Polymedica is on my weekly watchlist....just waiting > for a buy signal. > > Things I like about it: > 4 Positive Earnings announcements out of the last 4 > quarters > 14 out of the past 20 quarters have had increases > over year ago comparable > ROE of 18.6 (or 16.8 depending on which source you > look at) > Earnings growth rate is increasing as compared to > the 5 year growth rate > Only about 10 million shares in Float > Zacks is showing analyst recommendation of 1.22 (1 > being the best, 5 being > the worst) > Using Ian Woodwards "Gas In Tank) method, the > projected price target is > about $76 > Good EPS Rank > > Things I don't like: > Over 65% Institutionally owned > Revenue growth is slowing in comparison to the 5 > year growth rate > Cash Flow growth rate is slowing in comparison to > the 5 year growth rate > The support level looks to be in the $45 range > > I am waiting for a buy opportunity in the mid to > high $40's > > > > > > -----Original Message----- > From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com > [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf > Of travis bolster > Sent: Wednesday, April 05, 2000 7:38 PM > To: canslim@lists.xmission.com > Subject: [CANSLIM] PLMD > > > I was wondering if anyone had thoughts on PLMD. I > think the ratings are (96/94 ABA). They sell > diabetes > equipment through the mail and other medical > supplies. > > Travis Bolster > > __________________________________________________ > Do You Yahoo!? > Talk to your friends online with Yahoo! Messenger. > http://im.yahoo.com > > - > > > > - > > __________________________________________________ Do You Yahoo!? Talk to your friends online with Yahoo! Messenger. http://im.yahoo.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Surindra Singh Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] PLMD Date: 05 Apr 2000 23:37:01 -0400 CYTC is another candidate with good canslim characters. Any comments Dan? Surindra Singh -----Original Message----- [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of Dan Sutton Sent: Wednesday, April 05, 2000 10:35 PM Polymedica is on my weekly watchlist....just waiting for a buy signal. Things I like about it: 4 Positive Earnings announcements out of the last 4 quarters 14 out of the past 20 quarters have had increases over year ago comparable ROE of 18.6 (or 16.8 depending on which source you look at) Earnings growth rate is increasing as compared to the 5 year growth rate Only about 10 million shares in Float Zacks is showing analyst recommendation of 1.22 (1 being the best, 5 being the worst) Using Ian Woodwards "Gas In Tank) method, the projected price target is about $76 Good EPS Rank Things I don't like: Over 65% Institutionally owned Revenue growth is slowing in comparison to the 5 year growth rate Cash Flow growth rate is slowing in comparison to the 5 year growth rate The support level looks to be in the $45 range I am waiting for a buy opportunity in the mid to high $40's -----Original Message----- [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of travis bolster Sent: Wednesday, April 05, 2000 7:38 PM I was wondering if anyone had thoughts on PLMD. I think the ratings are (96/94 ABA). They sell diabetes equipment through the mail and other medical supplies. Travis Bolster __________________________________________________ Do You Yahoo!? Talk to your friends online with Yahoo! Messenger. http://im.yahoo.com - - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Dan Sutton" Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] CYTC Date: 05 Apr 2000 22:00:47 -0600 CYTC didn't hit on any of the scans that I run on Saturdays. I just looked at it in Quotes Plus and it appears like the EPS info is the reason why. The QP2 data shows the EPS info to be N/A from June of 99 all the way back through March of 95. The N/A would have kept it from being found in any of my scans. The positives (according to QP2): EPS Rank of 99 Rs rank of 94 Float of 24 million shares Projected EPS growth rate of 275% (although that is only 8 cents per share) Strong revenue growth rate Zacks recommendation of 1.9 Looks like it is resting right about at it's 50 day moving average Had a good move up today The negatives: Institutional ownership at 95% Cash flow per share minus .74 Return on equity of 3.86 Without digging for all the info, there just isn't enough provided by QP2 for my spreadsheet to slice it and dice it the way I like to. And without that info I'm not tempted to buy it. Sorry -----Original Message----- [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of Surindra Singh Sent: Wednesday, April 05, 2000 9:37 PM CYTC is another candidate with good canslim characters. Any comments Dan? Surindra Singh - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] CMGI, WORK Date: 06 Apr 2000 00:08:50 -0400 Hi Brian, I agree with you on CMGI, but on WORK not so sure it has broken down. Seems like it's trying to hold the base around 23, so a tight consolidation could set up another attempt at a breakout. However, current U/D ratio is only 0.8, not strong, and I note debt (just refinanced 3/00) is extremely high, so this could be costly. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html ----- Original Message ----- Sent: Wednesday, April 05, 2000 11:10 AM Both bases for CMGI and WORK appear to have broken down with the sell off of the NASDQ. I would like to see a long tight consolidation now before investing in these stock. My reason for including CMGI was that it despite the earnings, revenues have been increasing dramatically and much of the earnings depression may be attributable to investment by the company which may lead to future earnings and sales growth. With a good base and accelerating earnings, I considered CMGI a reasonable internet play. WORK, I was watching because of the 99 EPS, what was a fairly tight and long base, and the possibility that the group would be a leader when the next bull run begins. I admit that now the group appears to be weak. And, I would not consider the industry one with huge long-term prospects, but in the short term the group could come into favor. Well, you have a nice list with many of the recent leaders included. I think I've been watching most of the stocks on your list to some extent except for CMGI and WORK. CMGI is a stock I profited on some time back (pre-CANSLIM), but it only has a 12 EPS rating, so it doesn't pass on this test. WORK on the other hand has nice CANSLIM numbers at 99/85/CAB. I haven't seen it since I only look at A ranked Industry Groups, but it looks good otherwise. The group it's in is Commercial Services-Printing. This group is ranked 93, but seems to be moving down (was 68 6 months ago). What is your CANSLIM reasoning on these two stocks? At 12:59 AM 4/4/00 -0400, you wrote: >Hello all, I've been lurking and learning for a year or two now. Thanks >to this forum I have become much more profitable in my investing over >the past year. Of course, the huge run of the NASDQ helped. I will >attempt to begin contributing as I have thoughts. I am now watching >several stocks hoping that they will form nice, long, tight bases during >this tech correction. I see XLNX, AMCC, BBRC, CMGI, DITC, JDSU, ORCL, >PRLX, QCOM, SDLI, SNDK, SMTC, and WORK (really) as my strongest >candidates for future buys when they are done consolidating. Also, did >anyone buy or consider buying AMK on the breakout on 4/3/00. Any >comments, additions, or subtractions, to/from this watch list would be >appreciated. > >Yours truly, >Brian Bellamy - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Charles Dille" Subject: [CANSLIM] Your Ideas on SLR Date: 06 Apr 2000 07:28:19 -0500 I have been following SLR for about 30 days and am long at 42 3/16 I would like any input from some of the " old hands " here about this choice Thanks, Charlie - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Wahl, Patrick" Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] CYTC Date: 06 Apr 2000 08:24:02 -0600 Does QP2 have an EPS rank? I haven't seen it before. > -----Original Message----- > From: Dan Sutton [mailto:dsutton@uswest.net] > Sent: Wednesday, April 05, 2000 10:01 PM > To: canslim@lists.xmission.com > Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] CYTC > The positives (according to QP2): > EPS Rank of 99 > Rs rank of 94 > Float of 24 million shares > Projected EPS growth rate of 275% (although that is only 8 > cents per share) > Strong revenue growth rate > Zacks recommendation of 1.9 > Looks like it is resting right about at it's 50 day moving average > Had a good move up today - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Earl Setser Subject: [CANSLIM] Industry Group Strength Date: 06 Apr 2000 08:43:44 -0600 Well, here we are attempting to get a FT day on the NASDAQ again. (I think Friday would be the fourth day of the rally, so I'll start watching at that point.) Given that we get an FT day, what approach to picking Industry Groups (IGPs) would you guys suggest? Here are a few possibilities I'm considering. I would really appreciate your opinions, particularly on #3. 1 - Use the IBD IGP rank for the last 6 months. (I question this since this data includes most of the last runup, and may not indicate where the new leaders will be.) 2 - Use the IBD IGP performance YTD to select the top IGPs. IBD lists the YTD performance every day, so it would just be a matter of picking the top groups based on that number. (I think this might be a better approach than number 1, while still maintaining a 3+ month perspective.) 3 - Select the top performing IGPs since the NASDAQ peak in early March. I could generate this data by using the latest IBD and the IBD the data of the peak and calculating the performance since the peak. (I wonder if this is a good approach to pick leading groups, or is it too short a timeframe to use??) Does anyone have the information on the best groups since the NASDAQ peak? I would be interested in the top 40 groups or so (using the IBD groups). Also, is there a different timeframe someone prefers and why? Thanks for you opinions and suggestions in advance. - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Dan Sutton" Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] PLMD Date: 05 Apr 2000 21:09:51 -0600 The institutional ownership percentage is not something that would make me NOT buy the stock. But, generally speaking the lower the institutionl ownership, the faster the stock will move up as institutions jump into it. One of the reasons I seldom post here, is because I do not normally subscribe to all of the caveats of CANSLIM. One of the elements I struggle with is identifying the Cup and Handle signal. The buy signal I always use is based on the Stochastic RSI action, and that particular signal rarely occurs when the stock is above 90% of it's 52 week high. However I feel that if the stock is fundamentally strong and still posseses all of the other CANSLIM elements, then the buy signal is simply a matter of personal choice. -----Original Message----- [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of travis bolster Sent: Wednesday, April 05, 2000 8:52 PM Dan, great info just curious about why the institutional holdings bother you? Also, why would you want to buy in the 40's when its off its 52 week high? Travis --- Dan Sutton wrote: > Polymedica is on my weekly watchlist....just waiting > for a buy signal. > > Things I like about it: > 4 Positive Earnings announcements out of the last 4 > quarters > 14 out of the past 20 quarters have had increases > over year ago comparable > ROE of 18.6 (or 16.8 depending on which source you > look at) > Earnings growth rate is increasing as compared to > the 5 year growth rate > Only about 10 million shares in Float > Zacks is showing analyst recommendation of 1.22 (1 > being the best, 5 being > the worst) > Using Ian Woodwards "Gas In Tank) method, the > projected price target is > about $76 > Good EPS Rank > > Things I don't like: > Over 65% Institutionally owned > Revenue growth is slowing in comparison to the 5 > year growth rate > Cash Flow growth rate is slowing in comparison to > the 5 year growth rate > The support level looks to be in the $45 range > > I am waiting for a buy opportunity in the mid to > high $40's > > > > > > -----Original Message----- > From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com > [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf > Of travis bolster > Sent: Wednesday, April 05, 2000 7:38 PM > To: canslim@lists.xmission.com > Subject: [CANSLIM] PLMD > > > I was wondering if anyone had thoughts on PLMD. I > think the ratings are (96/94 ABA). They sell > diabetes > equipment through the mail and other medical > supplies. > > Travis Bolster > > __________________________________________________ > Do You Yahoo!? > Talk to your friends online with Yahoo! Messenger. > http://im.yahoo.com > > - > > > > - > > __________________________________________________ Do You Yahoo!? Talk to your friends online with Yahoo! Messenger. http://im.yahoo.com - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Tim Fisher Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Industry Group Strength Date: 06 Apr 2000 08:26:31 -0700 Remember that the example of a follow-through day that Marder gave in March was on the 3rd day following the low. I believe WON also says 3-10 days, not starting on the fourth day... On 07:43 AM 4/6/00 , Earl Setser Said: >Well, here we are attempting to get a FT day on the NASDAQ again. (I think >Friday would be the fourth day of the rally, so I'll start watching at that >point.) Given that we get an FT day, what approach to picking Industry >Groups (IGPs) would you guys suggest? Here are a few possibilities I'm >considering. I would really appreciate your opinions, particularly on #3. > >1 - Use the IBD IGP rank for the last 6 months. (I question this since >this data includes most of the last runup, and may not indicate where the >new leaders will be.) > >2 - Use the IBD IGP performance YTD to select the top IGPs. IBD lists the >YTD performance every day, so it would just be a matter of picking the top >groups based on that number. (I think this might be a better approach than >number 1, while still maintaining a 3+ month perspective.) > >3 - Select the top performing IGPs since the NASDAQ peak in early March. I >could generate this data by using the latest IBD and the IBD the data of >the peak and calculating the performance since the peak. (I wonder if this >is a good approach to pick leading groups, or is it too short a timeframe >to use??) > >Does anyone have the information on the best groups since the NASDAQ peak? >I would be interested in the top 40 groups or so (using the IBD groups). > >Also, is there a different timeframe someone prefers and why? Thanks for >you opinions and suggestions in advance. Tim Fisher Ore-Rock-On and Pacific Fishery Biologists WWW Sites Tim@OreRockOn.com WWW: http://OreRockOn.com See naked fish and rocks! - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Matt Robinson" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] PLMD Date: 06 Apr 2000 00:14:31 -0400 Well, if it were lower that would mean there was a lot more shares for institutions to buy. Thus greater chance that this buying will raise the price of the stock. The theory is that if it is too high.......the price effect of institutional investors has been priced in. I don't know who it was, but someone mentioned PLMD a while back.......yea it looks pretty good. I think it was after the beginning of the year breakout and I stopped watching when it sunk back........stupid me. Regards Matt ----- Original Message ----- Sent: Wednesday, April 05, 2000 10:52 PM > Dan, great info just curious about why the > institutional holdings bother you? Also, why would > you want to buy in the 40's when its off its 52 week > high? > > Travis > > --- Dan Sutton wrote: > > Polymedica is on my weekly watchlist....just waiting > > for a buy signal. > > > > Things I like about it: > > 4 Positive Earnings announcements out of the last 4 > > quarters > > 14 out of the past 20 quarters have had increases > > over year ago comparable > > ROE of 18.6 (or 16.8 depending on which source you > > look at) > > Earnings growth rate is increasing as compared to > > the 5 year growth rate > > Only about 10 million shares in Float > > Zacks is showing analyst recommendation of 1.22 (1 > > being the best, 5 being > > the worst) > > Using Ian Woodwards "Gas In Tank) method, the > > projected price target is > > about $76 > > Good EPS Rank > > > > Things I don't like: > > Over 65% Institutionally owned > > Revenue growth is slowing in comparison to the 5 > > year growth rate > > Cash Flow growth rate is slowing in comparison to > > the 5 year growth rate > > The support level looks to be in the $45 range > > > > I am waiting for a buy opportunity in the mid to > > high $40's > > > > > > > > > > > > -----Original Message----- > > From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com > > [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf > > Of travis bolster > > Sent: Wednesday, April 05, 2000 7:38 PM > > To: canslim@lists.xmission.com > > Subject: [CANSLIM] PLMD > > > > > > I was wondering if anyone had thoughts on PLMD. I > > think the ratings are (96/94 ABA). They sell > > diabetes > > equipment through the mail and other medical > > supplies. > > > > Travis Bolster > > > > __________________________________________________ > > Do You Yahoo!? > > Talk to your friends online with Yahoo! Messenger. > > http://im.yahoo.com > > > > - > > > > > > > > - > > > > > > __________________________________________________ > Do You Yahoo!? > Talk to your friends online with Yahoo! Messenger. > http://im.yahoo.com > > - > __________________________________________________ Do You Yahoo!? Talk to your friends online with Yahoo! Messenger. http://im.yahoo.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "walter nusbaum" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Industry Group Strength Date: 06 Apr 2000 11:28:09 -0500 ----- Original Message ----- Sent: Thursday, April 06, 2000 10:26 AM > Remember that the example of a follow-through day that Marder gave in March > was on the 3rd day following the low. I believe WON also says 3-10 days, > not starting on the fourth day... > > On 07:43 AM 4/6/00 , Earl Setser Said: > >Well, here we are attempting to get a FT day on the NASDAQ again. (I think > >Friday would be the fourth day of the rally, so I'll start watching at that > >point.) Earl & Tim, I thought that I saw a FT day about two weeks ago, as the market turned upward after three days of recent distribution. However, today's IBD is using those three days plus two more(30 MAR & 4 APR) and is calling for "extreme" caution if you are not already out of the market. The first distribution day(DD) was 23 days ago but only 14 from the 4th DD, which is well within WON's parameters of 2-3 weeks. I missed this *big time*, because I thought a rally following a series of DD's obviated their significance. Not so. In WON's narrative concerning market tops, he specifically mentions a 2-3 week time frame for their occurrence, but in his detailed description of the 1990 top, he shows 26 days between the 1st DD and the "sell" day, which is a five week period. My IBD was not delivered last Thursday or Friday, so I don't know if it mentioned that last Thursday was indeed the 4th day of distribution, but in Monday's,Tuesday's and Wednesday's edition it goes unremarked. While it would have been a great help if IBD had noted this earlier, it does not relieve me of the responsibility to discover this on my own. Can anyone point me to a reference by WON that discusses the time frame, magnitude of advance, or other indicator that effectively allows us to ignore previous DD's? Thanks. Best wishes, Walt - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Pritish Shah Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Industry Group Strength Date: 06 Apr 2000 09:47:18 -0700 (PDT) Here is the excerpt from http://www.investors.com/invcorner/market04.htm I have underlined the section that I think is of importance. The put/call ratio peaked and was at the highest level in a year. Regards, Shah Excerpt: Follow-throughs are no guarantee a rally will thrive. But no major advance has started without one. Those that occur after the 10th day suggest the rally may be weak. Confirmed rallies that fail usually come crashing down a day or two after the follow-through. During last year's summer correction, there were confirmed rallies in late August and early October of 1999, though neither was impressive. Both failed within days. Finally, the S&P 500 bottomed on Oct. 18, 13.1% off its old high. The big-cap index fell early that day, but recovered to close up 6.72 points at 1254.13. That was day one. On Oct. 27, the eighth day, the S&P rose 1.2% on somewhat higher volume. That qualified as a follow-through, but by itself didn't inspire much confidence. Unlike the prior attempts, though, other indicators suggested the market ************************************************************************ had bottomed. The put/call volume ratio peaked at 0.93 on Oct. 15, the day ************************************************************************** before the market bottomed and the highest level in a year. When investor ************************************************************************* sentiment turns excessively bearish, it's usually a bullish sign. ****************************************************************** On Oct. 28, the S&P 500 surged 3.5% on heavy volume as the Dow industrials and the Nasdaq staged their own follow-throughs. From their follow-through confirmations, the S&P 500 rose 14%, the Dow climbed 11% and the Nasdaq surged 50%. Savvy investors moved right away. Leading stocks started blowing out of bases on the confirmation session and in the weeks that followed. On Thu, 6 Apr 2000, walter nusbaum wrote: > > ----- Original Message ----- > From: "Tim Fisher" > To: > Sent: Thursday, April 06, 2000 10:26 AM > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Industry Group Strength > > > > Remember that the example of a follow-through day that Marder gave in > March > > was on the 3rd day following the low. I believe WON also says 3-10 days, > > not starting on the fourth day... > > > > On 07:43 AM 4/6/00 , Earl Setser Said: > > >Well, here we are attempting to get a FT day on the NASDAQ again. (I > think > > >Friday would be the fourth day of the rally, so I'll start watching at > that > > >point.) > > Earl & Tim, > I thought that I saw a FT day about two weeks ago, as the market turned > upward after three days of recent distribution. However, today's IBD is > using those three days plus two more(30 MAR & 4 APR) and is calling for > "extreme" caution if you are not already out of the market. > > The first distribution day(DD) was 23 days ago but only 14 from the 4th DD, > which is well within WON's parameters of 2-3 weeks. I missed this *big > time*, because I thought a rally following a series of DD's obviated their > significance. Not so. > > In WON's narrative concerning market tops, he specifically mentions a 2-3 > week time frame for their occurrence, but in his detailed description of the > 1990 top, he shows 26 days between the 1st DD and the "sell" day, which is a > five week period. > > My IBD was not delivered last Thursday or Friday, so I don't know if it > mentioned that last Thursday was indeed the 4th day of distribution, but in > Monday's,Tuesday's and Wednesday's edition it goes unremarked. While it > would have been a great help if IBD had noted this earlier, it does not > relieve me of the responsibility to discover this on my own. > > Can anyone point me to a reference by WON that discusses the time frame, > magnitude of advance, or other indicator that effectively allows us to > ignore previous DD's? Thanks. > Best wishes, > Walt > > > > > > > - > > - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Pritish Shah Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Industry Group Strength Date: 06 Apr 2000 09:53:42 -0700 (PDT) BTW, forgot to mention that there is one more indicator of market bottom. That is the volatility index. The volatility index becomes highest when the market turnaround is seen. Combine the following and you have a pretty good indicator Put/Call ratio Volatility Index Follow-Through Follow-Through Confirmation Regards, Shah On Thu, 6 Apr 2000, Pritish Shah wrote: > > Here is the excerpt from http://www.investors.com/invcorner/market04.htm > > I have underlined the section that I think is of importance. The put/call > ratio peaked and was at the highest level in a year. > > Regards, > Shah > > Excerpt: > > Follow-throughs are no guarantee a rally will thrive. But no major advance > has started without one. > > Those that occur after the 10th day suggest the rally may be > weak. Confirmed rallies that fail usually come crashing down a day or two > after the follow-through. During last year's summer correction, there were > confirmed rallies in late August and early October of 1999, though neither > was impressive. Both failed within days. > > Finally, the S&P 500 bottomed on Oct. 18, 13.1% off its old high. The > big-cap index fell early that day, but recovered to close up 6.72 points > at 1254.13. That was day one. On Oct. 27, the eighth day, the S&P rose > 1.2% on somewhat higher volume. That qualified as a follow-through, but by > itself didn't inspire much confidence. > > Unlike the prior attempts, though, other indicators suggested the market > ************************************************************************ > had bottomed. The put/call volume ratio peaked at 0.93 on Oct. 15, the day > ************************************************************************** > before the market bottomed and the highest level in a year. When investor > ************************************************************************* > sentiment turns excessively bearish, it's usually a bullish sign. > ****************************************************************** > > On Oct. 28, the S&P 500 surged 3.5% on heavy volume as the Dow industrials > and the Nasdaq staged their own follow-throughs. From their follow-through > confirmations, the S&P 500 rose 14%, the Dow climbed 11% and the Nasdaq > surged 50%. > > Savvy investors moved right away. Leading stocks started blowing out of > bases on the confirmation session and in the weeks that followed. > > > > On Thu, 6 Apr 2000, walter nusbaum wrote: > > > > > ----- Original Message ----- > > From: "Tim Fisher" > > To: > > Sent: Thursday, April 06, 2000 10:26 AM > > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Industry Group Strength > > > > > > > Remember that the example of a follow-through day that Marder gave in > > March > > > was on the 3rd day following the low. I believe WON also says 3-10 days, > > > not starting on the fourth day... > > > > > > On 07:43 AM 4/6/00 , Earl Setser Said: > > > >Well, here we are attempting to get a FT day on the NASDAQ again. (I > > think > > > >Friday would be the fourth day of the rally, so I'll start watching at > > that > > > >point.) > > > > Earl & Tim, > > I thought that I saw a FT day about two weeks ago, as the market turned > > upward after three days of recent distribution. However, today's IBD is > > using those three days plus two more(30 MAR & 4 APR) and is calling for > > "extreme" caution if you are not already out of the market. > > > > The first distribution day(DD) was 23 days ago but only 14 from the 4th DD, > > which is well within WON's parameters of 2-3 weeks. I missed this *big > > time*, because I thought a rally following a series of DD's obviated their > > significance. Not so. > > > > In WON's narrative concerning market tops, he specifically mentions a 2-3 > > week time frame for their occurrence, but in his detailed description of the > > 1990 top, he shows 26 days between the 1st DD and the "sell" day, which is a > > five week period. > > > > My IBD was not delivered last Thursday or Friday, so I don't know if it > > mentioned that last Thursday was indeed the 4th day of distribution, but in > > Monday's,Tuesday's and Wednesday's edition it goes unremarked. While it > > would have been a great help if IBD had noted this earlier, it does not > > relieve me of the responsibility to discover this on my own. > > > > Can anyone point me to a reference by WON that discusses the time frame, > > magnitude of advance, or other indicator that effectively allows us to > > ignore previous DD's? Thanks. > > Best wishes, > > Walt > > > > > > > > > > > > > > - > > > > > > > - > > - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "dave@gordian.com" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] WON on selling short Date: 02 Apr 2000 12:46:10 -0700 My most successful short plays have been with "theme" or story sectors that never really had good earnings. Right now I am doing well with the Linux stocks (LNUX, RHAT). Had I been paying attention in Jan., the e-tailers would have been a good short. Several years back I did great shorting the Y2k software companies. It's kind of like inverse CANSLIM, but not quite. C and A work against you, so I like stocks with a low EPS, but a high RS (more room to fall). It is possible to make money short when M is going up, but the recent negative market has sure been beneficial to my Linux shorts. One downside of shorting is that you have to closely monitor your open positions (in addition to having stops in place) and it takes a lot of time to keep finding new short candidates. While a good CANSLIM pick can be ridden for months or even years, short plays are ususally weeks or months at most. Dave Farthing Gordian Design Services direct any spam to: aablme@gordian.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Matt Robinson" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Stock that Have Held Up Date: 05 Apr 2000 14:21:12 -0400 Yup ----- Original Message ----- Sent: Wednesday, April 05, 2000 11:34 AM > These have hardly held up. E.g. ARMHY had a high of 250 & closed at 180 > yesterday. I think he was looking for charts like CSCO, ORCL, QCOM, NOK, > ALTR, AMAT (see you had that one), JBL, MNMD, RSYS, SANM, ADBE. > > On 10:49 PM 4/4/00 , David S. Pinhasik Said: > >Take a look at these: > > > >PWAV up 5% on 1.9 ADV > >QLGC up 7.64% on 3.4 ADV > >AMAT up 9.94% on 2.8 ADV > >SNRA up 9.75% on 2.7 ADV > >ARMHY up 29.5% on 3.5 ADV > >CREE up 7.68% on 2 ADV > >ADVS up 13.1% on 3.6 ADV > >CTSH up 4.28% on 1.9 ADV > > > >David > > > > > > > > > >----- Original Message ----- > >From: Matt Robinson > >To: > >Sent: Tuesday, April 04, 2000 3:39 PM > >Subject: [CANSLIM] Stock that Have Held Up > > > > > > > I think now would be a good time to run through leading stocks that have > > > held up the best. One gets the best idea of true or future market leaders > >in > > > a correction or bear market, respectively. I personally don't see any of > > > the larger leaders that have held up well. Some of the "blue chip" tech > > > names haven't done too badly, INTC doesn't look that bad, but I was > >looking > > > for more "high power" stocks as well. > > > > > > NASI could be beginning to base around 21. Many of the smaller names that > > > have been favorites of CANSLIMers have gotten ripped, such as XETA. > > > > > > Regards > > > Matt > > > > > Tim Fisher > Ore-Rock-On and Pacific Fishery Biologists WWW Sites > > Tim@OreRockOn.com > WWW: http://OreRockOn.com > See naked fish and rocks! > > > - > __________________________________________________ Do You Yahoo!? Talk to your friends online with Yahoo! Messenger. http://im.yahoo.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Charles Dille" Subject: [CANSLIM] Look at SAWS and TTN Date: 06 Apr 2000 15:33:48 -0500 I ask about a week ago about these stocks and got a lot of helpful response. Does anybody think these are now Canslim prospects? - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "walter nusbaum" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Industry Group Strength Date: 06 Apr 2000 15:49:24 -0500 ----- Original Message ----- Sent: Thursday, April 06, 2000 11:53 AM > > BTW, forgot to mention that there is one more indicator of market > bottom. That is the volatility index. The volatility index becomes highest > when the market turnaround is seen. Combine the following and you have a > pretty good indicator > > Put/Call ratio > Volatility Index > Follow-Through > Follow-Through Confirmation > > Regards, > Shah Shah, Thanks for your reply. HTMMIS mentions neither the Put/Call nor Volatility, but they will surely help confirm a turn around. Thanks again. Best wishes, Walt - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Charles Dille" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Look at SAWS and TTN (Never Mind) Date: 06 Apr 2000 16:05:52 -0500 After looking at the charts I have answered my own question. They are not, but they sure kicked butt today. ----- Original Message ----- Sent: Thursday, April 06, 2000 3:33 PM > I ask about a week ago about these stocks and got a lot of helpful response. > Does anybody think these are now Canslim prospects? > > > - > > - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Dan Sutton" Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] CYTC Date: 06 Apr 2000 17:48:58 -0600 In the new version, when you click on View, then Fundamentals, it is the third line down from the top. -----Original Message----- [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of Wahl, Patrick Sent: Thursday, April 06, 2000 8:24 AM Does QP2 have an EPS rank? I haven't seen it before. > -----Original Message----- > From: Dan Sutton [mailto:dsutton@uswest.net] > Sent: Wednesday, April 05, 2000 10:01 PM > To: canslim@lists.xmission.com > Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] CYTC > The positives (according to QP2): > EPS Rank of 99 > Rs rank of 94 > Float of 24 million shares > Projected EPS growth rate of 275% (although that is only 8 > cents per share) > Strong revenue growth rate > Zacks recommendation of 1.9 > Looks like it is resting right about at it's 50 day moving average > Had a good move up today - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Walter Stock Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Industry Group Strength - Charting Groups Date: 06 Apr 2000 20:14:32 -0400 Hi Earl, To answer your original question, the approach to picking the right industry groups is the topic I used to struggle with more than any other in earlier years. Your item #1: I agree with your thoughts here. I don't use the ranking over the last 6 months. Item #2: A little better than #1 but still at some risk of stale data. Item #3: Perhaps better than the other two. What we really need to know is which groups and which stocks held up best over the past month, because that is where the new leaders will likely emerge from. In other words which industry groups have the highest relative strength? Here's what I do. I take the IBD industry groups and select the top 15 ranked stocks in each group (EPS, RS, SMR, Acc/Dis). I then put these stocks into groups of the same name as IBD's on my charting software. This creates what are sometimes called "surrogate groups" of leaders (the laggard stocks are entirely left out). After I download my data every night, I simply look at my charts of the groups before looking at the charts of individual stocks. Most important, I also look at the relative strength of each group as compared to the NASD on a daily basis. I also look for chart patterns in the groups (usual WON patterns) and also apply TA. The idea for this approach was originally suggested by a veteran of our Canslim group who no longer subscribes. He used Windows On Wall Street charting software which lets you do group work. I use AIQ charting software which has some powerful group analysis features - the reason I picked AIQ. ( I carefully ignore AIQ's market signals.) Note: I don't track all or even most of the industry groups. I am only concerned with the technology groups (all), the financial groups (a handful) and the energy groups (only a couple). I don't trade the rest on a serious basis. If "Chemical-Fertilizers" becomes the next market leader, I guess I will have to miss the move. Hope this helps, Walter Stock Oakville, ON, Canada Earl Setser wrote: > Well, here we are attempting to get a FT day on the NASDAQ again. (I think > Friday would be the fourth day of the rally, so I'll start watching at that > point.) Given that we get an FT day, what approach to picking Industry > Groups (IGPs) would you guys suggest? Here are a few possibilities I'm > considering. I would really appreciate your opinions, particularly on #3. > > 1 - Use the IBD IGP rank for the last 6 months. (I question this since > this data includes most of the last runup, and may not indicate where the > new leaders will be.) > > 2 - Use the IBD IGP performance YTD to select the top IGPs. IBD lists the > YTD performance every day, so it would just be a matter of picking the top > groups based on that number. (I think this might be a better approach than > number 1, while still maintaining a 3+ month perspective.) > > 3 - Select the top performing IGPs since the NASDAQ peak in early March. I > could generate this data by using the latest IBD and the IBD the data of > the peak and calculating the performance since the peak. (I wonder if this > is a good approach to pick leading groups, or is it too short a timeframe > to use??) > > Does anyone have the information on the best groups since the NASDAQ peak? > I would be interested in the top 40 groups or so (using the IBD groups). > > Also, is there a different timeframe someone prefers and why? Thanks for > you opinions and suggestions in advance. > > - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Earl Setser Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Industry Group Strength Date: 06 Apr 2000 18:27:11 -0600 This is from WON's 26 week course that is (or was) posted on the Internet: >From some point, the average will always attempt to rebound and turn upward - this we call a rally. Don't get drawn into the first or second day of any rallies. They could be false indicators. The market is in a downtrend, and you don't want to buy anything until the market signals a clear and powerful follow-through, which usually occurs between the fourth and seventh day of an attempted rally. My understanding is that you start counting on the day of the low, as long as the market moved higher from the intraday low. This may just be a case of how you count. At 08:26 AM 4/6/00 -0700, you wrote: >Remember that the example of a follow-through day that Marder gave in March >was on the 3rd day following the low. I believe WON also says 3-10 days, >not starting on the fourth day... > >On 07:43 AM 4/6/00 , Earl Setser Said: >>Well, here we are attempting to get a FT day on the NASDAQ again. (I think >>Friday would be the fourth day of the rally, so I'll start watching at that >>point.) Given that we get an FT day, what approach to picking Industry >>Groups (IGPs) would you guys suggest? Here are a few possibilities I'm >>considering. I would really appreciate your opinions, particularly on #3. >> >>1 - Use the IBD IGP rank for the last 6 months. (I question this since >>this data includes most of the last runup, and may not indicate where the >>new leaders will be.) >> >>2 - Use the IBD IGP performance YTD to select the top IGPs. IBD lists the >>YTD performance every day, so it would just be a matter of picking the top >>groups based on that number. (I think this might be a better approach than >>number 1, while still maintaining a 3+ month perspective.) >> >>3 - Select the top performing IGPs since the NASDAQ peak in early March. I >>could generate this data by using the latest IBD and the IBD the data of >>the peak and calculating the performance since the peak. (I wonder if this >>is a good approach to pick leading groups, or is it too short a timeframe >>to use??) >> >>Does anyone have the information on the best groups since the NASDAQ peak? >>I would be interested in the top 40 groups or so (using the IBD groups). >> >>Also, is there a different timeframe someone prefers and why? Thanks for >>you opinions and suggestions in advance. > >Tim Fisher >Ore-Rock-On and Pacific Fishery Biologists WWW Sites > >Tim@OreRockOn.com >WWW: http://OreRockOn.com >See naked fish and rocks! > > >- > > > - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Earl Setser Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Industry Group Strength Date: 06 Apr 2000 18:39:47 -0600 I agreed with that follow-through day as did the IBD. From Wed, March 22 IBD, "With big techs leading the charge, the Nasdaq composite delivered a 2.2% gain on higher volume. The session seved as a follow-through of the rally that began last week." They did go on to warn that few leaders were breaking out, and that there weren't any new IGPs that appeared ready to take over leadership either. I guess if we had read closer, maybe we would have been more cautious. I DO plan to be MORE CAUTIOUS about getting in this time!! >> >> On 07:43 AM 4/6/00 , Earl Setser Said: >> >Well, here we are attempting to get a FT day on the NASDAQ again. (I >think >> >Friday would be the fourth day of the rally, so I'll start watching at >that >> >point.) > >Earl & Tim, >I thought that I saw a FT day about two weeks ago, as the market turned >upward after three days of recent distribution. However, today's IBD is >using those three days plus two more(30 MAR & 4 APR) and is calling for >"extreme" caution if you are not already out of the market. > >The first distribution day(DD) was 23 days ago but only 14 from the 4th DD, >which is well within WON's parameters of 2-3 weeks. I missed this *big >time*, because I thought a rally following a series of DD's obviated their >significance. Not so. > >In WON's narrative concerning market tops, he specifically mentions a 2-3 >week time frame for their occurrence, but in his detailed description of the >1990 top, he shows 26 days between the 1st DD and the "sell" day, which is a >five week period. > >My IBD was not delivered last Thursday or Friday, so I don't know if it >mentioned that last Thursday was indeed the 4th day of distribution, but in >Monday's,Tuesday's and Wednesday's edition it goes unremarked. While it >would have been a great help if IBD had noted this earlier, it does not >relieve me of the responsibility to discover this on my own. > >Can anyone point me to a reference by WON that discusses the time frame, >magnitude of advance, or other indicator that effectively allows us to >ignore previous DD's? Thanks. >Best wishes, >Walt > > > > > > >- > > > - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Earl Setser Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Industry Group Strength - Charting Groups Date: 06 Apr 2000 18:44:49 -0600 Interesting approach. Can you share the top groups based on this approach right now?? I do plan to do 2 and 3 over the weekend, and I'll try to post the top 40 groups or so. At 08:14 PM 4/6/00 -0400, you wrote: >Hi Earl, > >To answer your original question, the approach to picking >the right industry groups is the topic I used to struggle with >more than any other in earlier years. > >Your item #1: I agree with your thoughts here. I don't use >the ranking over the last 6 months. > >Item #2: A little better than #1 but still at some risk of >stale data. > >Item #3: Perhaps better than the other two. > >What we really need to know is which groups and which stocks held >up best over the past month, because that is where the new leaders >will likely emerge from. In other words which industry groups have >the highest relative strength? > >Here's what I do. I take the IBD industry groups and select >the top 15 ranked stocks in each group (EPS, RS, SMR, Acc/Dis). >I then put these stocks into groups of the same name as IBD's on my >charting software. > >This creates what are sometimes called "surrogate groups" >of leaders (the laggard stocks are entirely left out). After I download >my data every night, I simply look at my charts of the groups before >looking at the charts of individual stocks. Most important, >I also look at the relative strength of each group as compared to >the NASD on a daily basis. I also look for chart patterns in the groups >(usual WON patterns) and also apply TA. > >The idea for this approach was originally suggested by a veteran of our >Canslim group who no longer subscribes. He used Windows On >Wall Street charting software which lets you do group work. >I use AIQ charting software which has some powerful group analysis >features - the reason I picked AIQ. ( I carefully ignore AIQ's market >signals.) > >Note: I don't track all or even most of the industry groups. I am >only concerned with the technology groups (all), the financial groups >(a handful) and the energy groups (only a couple). I don't trade the >rest on a serious basis. >If "Chemical-Fertilizers" becomes the next market leader, I guess I will >have to miss the move. > >Hope this helps, > >Walter Stock >Oakville, ON, Canada > > > >Earl Setser wrote: > >> Well, here we are attempting to get a FT day on the NASDAQ again. (I think >> Friday would be the fourth day of the rally, so I'll start watching at that >> point.) Given that we get an FT day, what approach to picking Industry >> Groups (IGPs) would you guys suggest? Here are a few possibilities I'm >> considering. I would really appreciate your opinions, particularly on #3. >> >> 1 - Use the IBD IGP rank for the last 6 months. (I question this since >> this data includes most of the last runup, and may not indicate where the >> new leaders will be.) >> >> 2 - Use the IBD IGP performance YTD to select the top IGPs. IBD lists the >> YTD performance every day, so it would just be a matter of picking the top >> groups based on that number. (I think this might be a better approach than >> number 1, while still maintaining a 3+ month perspective.) >> >> 3 - Select the top performing IGPs since the NASDAQ peak in early March. I >> could generate this data by using the latest IBD and the IBD the data of >> the peak and calculating the performance since the peak. (I wonder if this >> is a good approach to pick leading groups, or is it too short a timeframe >> to use??) >> >> Does anyone have the information on the best groups since the NASDAQ peak? >> I would be interested in the top 40 groups or so (using the IBD groups). >> >> Also, is there a different timeframe someone prefers and why? Thanks for >> you opinions and suggestions in advance. >> >> - > > >- > > > - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: rolatzi Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Industry Group Strength Date: 06 Apr 2000 18:46:30 -0700 (PDT) Guys, The VIX spiked up the other day. I watch for the VIX's excursons above and below its Bollinger bands. If it spikes above the Bollinger band we are short term over sold. If we are below the Bollinger Band we are over bought and a correction is in store. Today the close was at the upper BB and the previous two days were above the upper BB peaking on Tuesday at 35.4 The minimums were on 3/3/00 a penetration below the lower bb and 3/17/00 which didn't quite reach the lower bb. for what it's worth, rolatzi --- walter nusbaum wrote: > > ----- Original Message ----- > From: "Pritish Shah" > To: > Sent: Thursday, April 06, 2000 11:53 AM > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Industry Group Strength > > > > > > BTW, forgot to mention that there is one more indicator > of market > > bottom. That is the volatility index. The volatility > index becomes highest > > when the market turnaround is seen. Combine the > following and you have a > > pretty good indicator > > > > Put/Call ratio > > Volatility Index > > Follow-Through > > Follow-Through Confirmation > > > > Regards, > > Shah > > Shah, > Thanks for your reply. HTMMIS mentions neither the > Put/Call nor Volatility, > but they will surely help confirm a turn around. Thanks > again. > Best wishes, > Walt > > > > > - > > __________________________________________________ Do You Yahoo!? Talk to your friends online with Yahoo! Messenger. http://im.yahoo.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Your Ideas on SLR Date: 07 Apr 2000 02:04:15 -0400 Hi Charlie, You don't mention when you bot it, whether during its abbreviated 2+ week trading range base, or on 4/4 as it appeared to break out on volume. If the latter, I think I would say it was a reasonable choice, despite the low RS (it's at 70 now and was even lower on 4/4). Volume ended up only 1.3X ADV, but still looked strong in an ugly market. If you bot during the short base, I would say you were premature. Throughout that base, and ignoring the fact that it was short, the RS was falling almost every day, and at the start of the base was only about 70. Having RS at or over 80 is important to ensure that the stock is "in favor". It is very much a "popularity campaign" indicator on a short term basis. Watching it on a daily basis, you can easily see the trend short term as well. Mkt cap/sales ratio is only about 2.7, so not overvalued there. Both sales and earnings show consistent and solid growth, earnings in the 50% range and sales in the 30-40% range, suggesting some earnings efficiencies. While trailing PE is high at 66, the far more important forward looking PE for the current year drops to 55, and for 2001 to about 47, not much different than the S&P500. If I was looking to buy on 4/4, I likely would have waited until 4/5 when it broke the 45 3/8 level set at the start of the short base. Volume was also slightly heavier that day. Today, on a moderate drop, volume was well under ADV. Funds already own 32% of the stock, while management has too little at stake for my tastes with only a 1% ownership. Debt is higher than I like in a rising interest rate environment at 33%. Because of its low RS, it is a long way from leadership in its group, tho the group is strong at 93. Just some quick thoughts from a disinterested observer. Glad you're making decisions, and taking actions, and even making money to boot! What a great country. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html ----- Original Message ----- Sent: Thursday, April 06, 2000 8:28 AM I have been following SLR for about 30 days and am long at 42 3/16 I would like any input from some of the " old hands " here about this choice Thanks, Charlie - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] CYTC Date: 07 Apr 2000 02:07:33 -0400 For comparison, DGO shows EPS at only 76. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html ----- Original Message ----- Sent: Thursday, April 06, 2000 7:48 PM In the new version, when you click on View, then Fundamentals, it is the third line down from the top. -----Original Message----- [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of Wahl, Patrick Sent: Thursday, April 06, 2000 8:24 AM Does QP2 have an EPS rank? I haven't seen it before. > -----Original Message----- > From: Dan Sutton [mailto:dsutton@uswest.net] > Sent: Wednesday, April 05, 2000 10:01 PM > To: canslim@lists.xmission.com > Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] CYTC > The positives (according to QP2): > EPS Rank of 99 > Rs rank of 94 > Float of 24 million shares > Projected EPS growth rate of 275% (although that is only 8 > cents per share) > Strong revenue growth rate > Zacks recommendation of 1.9 > Looks like it is resting right about at it's 50 day moving average > Had a good move up today - - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Industry Group Strength Date: 07 Apr 2000 02:30:32 -0400 Hi Earl, On the rare occasions I pay much attention to Industry Groups, I prefer to use the list of top 100 groups from WON, shown in various products including the books and DGO. For example, the following are currently in the top 10, were in the top 10 last week (answers the "which ones held up" question), and were also in the top 20 three months ago: TELECOMMUNICATIONS-EQUIP COMPUTER SOFTWR-SECURITY MEDICAL-BIOMED/GENETICS ELEC-SEMICONDUCTOR MFG COMPUTER-MEMORY DEVICES COMPUTER-LOCAL NETWORKS COMPUTER-PERIPHERAL EQ COMPUTER SOFTWR-ENTERPSE ELEC-SEMICONDUCTOR EQUIP No surprise, 8 of the 9 are tech groups, and the other one is a medical tech group. Helps reinforce my opinion that tech stocks are the only game in town worth playing, despite the volatility. I recall WON writing many years ago in a magazine article that I have yet to find again that you should only consider a group in the top 100, and that by the time a group has risen to the top 40, it has only made one third of its average advance. Don't know if it still holds true, but was a powerful argument on buying stocks/groups at their highs. On the other hand, it could also be a powerful argument against buying stocks in the very top groups such as above. I used this concept at the time to watch groups that were rapidly rising thru the 40th place, then check out the top five or so stocks in each group. Worked well for me at the time when I could focus and concentrate on nothing but the market. Haven't tried it in many years. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html ----- Original Message ----- Cc: Sent: Thursday, April 06, 2000 10:43 AM Well, here we are attempting to get a FT day on the NASDAQ again. (I think Friday would be the fourth day of the rally, so I'll start watching at that point.) Given that we get an FT day, what approach to picking Industry Groups (IGPs) would you guys suggest? Here are a few possibilities I'm considering. I would really appreciate your opinions, particularly on #3. 1 - Use the IBD IGP rank for the last 6 months. (I question this since this data includes most of the last runup, and may not indicate where the new leaders will be.) 2 - Use the IBD IGP performance YTD to select the top IGPs. IBD lists the YTD performance every day, so it would just be a matter of picking the top groups based on that number. (I think this might be a better approach than number 1, while still maintaining a 3+ month perspective.) 3 - Select the top performing IGPs since the NASDAQ peak in early March. I could generate this data by using the latest IBD and the IBD the data of the peak and calculating the performance since the peak. (I wonder if this is a good approach to pick leading groups, or is it too short a timeframe to use??) Does anyone have the information on the best groups since the NASDAQ peak? I would be interested in the top 40 groups or so (using the IBD groups). Also, is there a different timeframe someone prefers and why? Thanks for you opinions and suggestions in advance. - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: [CANSLIM] Groups at the 40th place Date: 07 Apr 2000 02:39:49 -0400 Out of curiosity, after my last posted reply, decided to check out which groups were around the 40th ranking. Here is what I found: 36 39 64 MEDICAL/DENTAL/SERV 37 40 35 HOUSEHOLD-AUDIO/VIDEO 38 43 43 ENERGY-OTHER 39 50 101 OIL&GAS-FIELD SERVICES 40 41 77 FINANCE-INVESTMENT BKRS 41 53 118 COMML SVCS-SCHOOLS The first column is the current weekly ranking, second column last week, and the third column ranking 3 months ago. Note the groups ranked 38 thru 41. # 38 I wouldn't touch in the face of falling oil prices, and # 39 for similar reasons combined with the natural lag it has with prior rising prices. It's sharp rise over 3 months is likely to be retraced even faster. But note the sharp rise in # 40, consistent with all the street talk of improved earnings due higher volume in the first quarter along with higher number of IPOs than normal. Don't ask me to account for the 3 month performance in # 41, with a tight labor market maybe more people are trying to upgrade their skills?? Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] PLMD Date: 07 Apr 2000 02:55:48 -0400 Institutional ownership seems to be one of those data elements that varies widely from internet site to site. For comparison, DGO shows Management at 10% of the issue of 12.9 million shares, and funds at 33% of the remaining 11.6 million shares. Banks wade in at 11%, some of which could be double counting with other institutional or individual ownership. I see no way to add these up to equal 65% institutional ownership, nor does the ADV suggest to me such a high institutional ownership. It would also be very unusual to have such high inst. ownership. Sometimes sites count institutional ownership of convertible bonds or preferreds differently, and sometimes without allowing for the increased nr of shares were they to convert. It's like statistics, all in the math you use. The key is finding a site where you find the data consistent and reliable for you, then stick to that. On the other hand, I avoid generally stocks with much more than high single digit percentage ownership by funds, I want to discover those stocks before they do, and ride the wave of expectation. And Dan, don't let your non-adherance to most/all covenants of CANSLIM stop you from posting. If we were all truly honest with ourselves, much less this most decent group, I doubt you would find many that are strict followers, esp now. I certainly have not been. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html ----- Original Message ----- Sent: Wednesday, April 05, 2000 11:09 PM The institutional ownership percentage is not something that would make me NOT buy the stock. But, generally speaking the lower the institutionl ownership, the faster the stock will move up as institutions jump into it. One of the reasons I seldom post here, is because I do not normally subscribe to all of the caveats of CANSLIM. One of the elements I struggle with is identifying the Cup and Handle signal. The buy signal I always use is based on the Stochastic RSI action, and that particular signal rarely occurs when the stock is above 90% of it's 52 week high. However I feel that if the stock is fundamentally strong and still posseses all of the other CANSLIM elements, then the buy signal is simply a matter of personal choice. -----Original Message----- [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of travis bolster Sent: Wednesday, April 05, 2000 8:52 PM Dan, great info just curious about why the institutional holdings bother you? Also, why would you want to buy in the 40's when its off its 52 week high? Travis --- Dan Sutton wrote: > Polymedica is on my weekly watchlist....just waiting > for a buy signal. > > Things I like about it: > 4 Positive Earnings announcements out of the last 4 > quarters > 14 out of the past 20 quarters have had increases > over year ago comparable > ROE of 18.6 (or 16.8 depending on which source you > look at) > Earnings growth rate is increasing as compared to > the 5 year growth rate > Only about 10 million shares in Float > Zacks is showing analyst recommendation of 1.22 (1 > being the best, 5 being > the worst) > Using Ian Woodwards "Gas In Tank) method, the > projected price target is > about $76 > Good EPS Rank > > Things I don't like: > Over 65% Institutionally owned > Revenue growth is slowing in comparison to the 5 > year growth rate > Cash Flow growth rate is slowing in comparison to > the 5 year growth rate > The support level looks to be in the $45 range > > I am waiting for a buy opportunity in the mid to > high $40's > > > > > > -----Original Message----- > From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com > [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf > Of travis bolster > Sent: Wednesday, April 05, 2000 7:38 PM > To: canslim@lists.xmission.com > Subject: [CANSLIM] PLMD > > > I was wondering if anyone had thoughts on PLMD. I > think the ratings are (96/94 ABA). They sell > diabetes > equipment through the mail and other medical > supplies. > > Travis Bolster > > __________________________________________________ > Do You Yahoo!? > Talk to your friends online with Yahoo! Messenger. > http://im.yahoo.com > > - > > > > - > > __________________________________________________ Do You Yahoo!? Talk to your friends online with Yahoo! Messenger. http://im.yahoo.com - - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: rolatzi Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Groups at the 40th place Date: 07 Apr 2000 06:22:41 -0700 (PDT) Tom, I think you are right about the price of oil falling but not about the stock prices. The price of oil will be stabilized in the mid-20's because demand has increased and the capacity of OPEC to ramp up production is limited. The collapse in oil at the end of 98 was a result of the economic collapse in South Asia along with a badly timed increase in the OPEC production quotas. Since then, oil emand has not only returned to normal but is greater than it was at that time. The economies of Asia including China and India (as well as those that collapsed in 98)show increased demand for oil. Because of uncertainties in the price of oil, because some production was taken permanently out when the price collapsed and because there is a continuing movement away from "dirty" fuels - coal and nuclear, to natural gas for generation of electricity, the price will be well supported in the mid twenties, a price that allows for exploration and good profitability by producers. The most likely scenario is that oil producers will have blow out quarters and will be rediscovered as value plays, getting rotational money from beleagered high tech, that energy serivce companies will not show good profitability until the 3rd or 4th quarter and will sell off after reporting. I can go on but won't. With regard to financial sectors, I would be careful considering them for investment at this time, because it is not clear what the Fed will do, and how the dollar will hold up. Finance has been in the doldrums for this year but it is not clear to me that it has yet bottomed. JMHO, rolatzi --- Tom Worley wrote: > Out of curiosity, after my last posted reply, decided to > check out which groups were around the 40th ranking. Here > is > what I found: > > 36 39 64 MEDICAL/DENTAL/SERV > 37 40 35 HOUSEHOLD-AUDIO/VIDEO > 38 43 43 ENERGY-OTHER > 39 50 101 OIL&GAS-FIELD SERVICES > 40 41 77 FINANCE-INVESTMENT BKRS > 41 53 118 COMML SVCS-SCHOOLS > > The first column is the current weekly ranking, second > column last week, and the third column ranking 3 months > ago. > Note the groups ranked 38 thru 41. # 38 I wouldn't touch > in > the face of falling oil prices, and # 39 for similar > reasons > combined with the natural lag it has with prior rising > prices. It's sharp rise over 3 months is likely to be > retraced even faster. > > But note the sharp rise in # 40, consistent with all the > street talk of improved earnings due higher volume in the > first quarter along with higher number of IPOs than > normal. > Don't ask me to account for the 3 month performance in # > 41, > with a tight labor market maybe more people are trying to > upgrade their skills?? > > Tom Worley > stkguru@netside.net > chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 > get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html > > > > > - > > __________________________________________________ Do You Yahoo!? Talk to your friends online with Yahoo! Messenger. http://im.yahoo.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Tim Fisher Subject: [CANSLIM] I dunno about y'all... Date: 07 Apr 2000 13:38:18 -0700 ...but I see a follow-through and confirmation day on the NASDAQ. That, coupled with all the talk of capitulation selling, looking like a bottom, etc. If it looks like a bottom and quacks like a bottom... FWIW, bot the following over the past 3 days: ADBE AMAT AMCC AMD CSCO MNMD NATI ORCL Saw many more than that breaking out the past 2 days, especially today. Am now 100% invested, for better or for worse. Wish I had sold ISSX, VTSS, SEBL, even at a huge loss, to pick up some of those. ANEN & APCC also look strong, and SANM and SUNW are knocking at the door. I freely admit that I even anticipated breakouts in some of those. Guess I was lucky that I was right in almost all cases. I was feeling randy with the great spring weather we are having - not at all like the usual hail showers. Tim Fisher Ore-Rock-On and Pacific Fishery Biologists WWW Sites Tim@OreRockOn.com WWW: http://OreRockOn.com See naked fish and rocks! - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Pritish Shah Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Industry Group Strength Date: 07 Apr 2000 15:06:03 -0700 (PDT) And the funny thing about this whole FT business is "When investor sentiment turns excessively bearish, it's usually a bullish sign." (Excerpt from http://www.investors.com/invcorner/market04.htm) So Earl, Maybe this is the real start of a fresh rally because you, I and everybody else are now more cautious than ever :) Regards, Pritish On Thu, 6 Apr 2000, Earl Setser wrote: > I agreed with that follow-through day as did the IBD. From Wed, March 22 > IBD, "With big techs leading the charge, the Nasdaq composite delivered a > 2.2% gain on higher volume. The session seved as a follow-through of the > rally that began last week." They did go on to warn that few leaders were > breaking out, and that there weren't any new IGPs that appeared ready to > take over leadership either. I guess if we had read closer, maybe we would > have been more cautious. I DO plan to be MORE CAUTIOUS about getting in > this time!! > >> > >> On 07:43 AM 4/6/00 , Earl Setser Said: > >> >Well, here we are attempting to get a FT day on the NASDAQ again. (I > >think > >> >Friday would be the fourth day of the rally, so I'll start watching at > >that > >> >point.) > > > >Earl & Tim, > >I thought that I saw a FT day about two weeks ago, as the market turned > >upward after three days of recent distribution. However, today's IBD is > >using those three days plus two more(30 MAR & 4 APR) and is calling for > >"extreme" caution if you are not already out of the market. > > > >The first distribution day(DD) was 23 days ago but only 14 from the 4th DD, > >which is well within WON's parameters of 2-3 weeks. I missed this *big > >time*, because I thought a rally following a series of DD's obviated their > >significance. Not so. > > > >In WON's narrative concerning market tops, he specifically mentions a 2-3 > >week time frame for their occurrence, but in his detailed description of the > >1990 top, he shows 26 days between the 1st DD and the "sell" day, which is a > >five week period. > > > >My IBD was not delivered last Thursday or Friday, so I don't know if it > >mentioned that last Thursday was indeed the 4th day of distribution, but in > >Monday's,Tuesday's and Wednesday's edition it goes unremarked. While it > >would have been a great help if IBD had noted this earlier, it does not > >relieve me of the responsibility to discover this on my own. > > > >Can anyone point me to a reference by WON that discusses the time frame, > >magnitude of advance, or other indicator that effectively allows us to > >ignore previous DD's? Thanks. > >Best wishes, > >Walt > > > > > > > > > > > > > >- > > > > > > > > > - > > - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Earl Setser Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Your Ideas on SLR Date: 07 Apr 2000 16:55:36 -0600 Some interesting observations about RS and how one CANSLIM investor uses it. At 02:04 AM 4/7/00 -0400, you wrote: >Hi Charlie, > >You don't mention when you bot it, whether during its >abbreviated 2+ week trading range base, or on 4/4 as it >appeared to break out on volume. If the latter, I think I >would say it was a reasonable choice, despite the low RS >(it's at 70 now and was even lower on 4/4). Volume ended up >only 1.3X ADV, but still looked strong in an ugly market. > >If you bot during the short base, I would say you were >premature. Throughout that base, and ignoring the fact that >it was short, the RS was falling almost every day, and at >the start of the base was only about 70. Having RS at or >over 80 is important to ensure that the stock is "in favor". >It is very much a "popularity campaign" indicator on a short >term basis. Watching it on a daily basis, you can easily see >the trend short term as well. > >Mkt cap/sales ratio is only about 2.7, so not overvalued >there. Both sales and earnings show consistent and solid >growth, earnings in the 50% range and sales in the 30-40% >range, suggesting some earnings efficiencies. While trailing >PE is high at 66, the far more important forward looking PE >for the current year drops to 55, and for 2001 to about 47, >not much different than the S&P500. > >If I was looking to buy on 4/4, I likely would have waited >until 4/5 when it broke the 45 3/8 level set at the start of >the short base. Volume was also slightly heavier that day. >Today, on a moderate drop, volume was well under ADV. Funds >already own 32% of the stock, while management has too >little at stake for my tastes with only a 1% ownership. >Debt is higher than I like in a rising interest rate >environment at 33%. Because of its low RS, it is a long way >from leadership in its group, tho the group is strong at 93. > >Just some quick thoughts from a disinterested observer. Glad >you're making decisions, and taking actions, and even making >money to boot! What a great country. > >Tom Worley >stkguru@netside.net >chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 >get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html > > >----- Original Message ----- >From: Charles Dille >To: Canslim List >Sent: Thursday, April 06, 2000 8:28 AM >Subject: [CANSLIM] Your Ideas on SLR > > >I have been following SLR for about 30 days and am long at >42 3/16 > >I would like any input from some of the " old hands " here >about this choice > >Thanks, Charlie > > >- > > > >- > > > - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Earl Setser Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Industry Group Strength Date: 07 Apr 2000 17:01:33 -0600 Thanks for the opinion Tom. In fact, this list is based on the past 6 months performance and is identical to the top 10 in IBD today. The top 100 puts you at the 50% level since there are 197 groups total. Generally, WON discusses selecting A and B rated groups in the books and articles I've read. This would be the top 79 groups (40% of 197). I'm guessing the other 21 groups may be of interest if they are moving up strongly, or having stocks showing leadership after a FT day. At 02:30 AM 4/7/00 -0400, you wrote: >Hi Earl, > >On the rare occasions I pay much attention to Industry >Groups, I prefer to use the list of top 100 groups from WON, >shown in various products including the books and DGO. For >example, the following are currently in the top 10, were in >the top 10 last week (answers the "which ones held up" >question), and were also in the top 20 three months ago: > >TELECOMMUNICATIONS-EQUIP >COMPUTER SOFTWR-SECURITY >MEDICAL-BIOMED/GENETICS >ELEC-SEMICONDUCTOR MFG >COMPUTER-MEMORY DEVICES >COMPUTER-LOCAL NETWORKS >COMPUTER-PERIPHERAL EQ >COMPUTER SOFTWR-ENTERPSE >ELEC-SEMICONDUCTOR EQUIP > >No surprise, 8 of the 9 are tech groups, and the other one >is a medical tech group. Helps reinforce my opinion that >tech stocks are the only game in town worth playing, despite >the volatility. > >I recall WON writing many years ago in a magazine article >that I have yet to find again that you should only consider >a group in the top 100, and that by the time a group has >risen to the top 40, it has only made one third of its >average advance. Don't know if it still holds true, but was >a powerful argument on buying stocks/groups at their highs. >On the other hand, it could also be a powerful argument >against buying stocks in the very top groups such as above. >I used this concept at the time to watch groups that were >rapidly rising thru the 40th place, then check out the top >five or so stocks in each group. Worked well for me at the >time when I could focus and concentrate on nothing but the >market. Haven't tried it in many years. > >Tom Worley >stkguru@netside.net >chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 >get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html > > - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Earl Setser Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] I dunno about y'all... Date: 07 Apr 2000 17:08:09 -0600 I'm counting today as day 4, so this would have been the first day possible for a FT. Even if you are counting yesterday or the day before, the volume has decreased on every up day this week (including today). WON says to look for a "significant" increase in volume from the day before Plus a 1% or greater rise. I don't see the volume signals, so I'm still watching. Meanwhile, I hope you do well with those stocks!! At 01:38 PM 4/7/00 -0700, you wrote: >...but I see a follow-through and confirmation day on the NASDAQ. That, >coupled with all the talk of capitulation selling, looking like a bottom, >etc. If it looks like a bottom and quacks like a bottom... FWIW, bot the >following over the past 3 days: ADBE AMAT AMCC AMD CSCO MNMD NATI ORCL > >Saw many more than that breaking out the past 2 days, especially today. Am >now 100% invested, for better or for worse. Wish I had sold ISSX, VTSS, >SEBL, even at a huge loss, to pick up some of those. ANEN & APCC also look >strong, and SANM and SUNW are knocking at the door. I freely admit that I >even anticipated breakouts in some of those. Guess I was lucky that I was >right in almost all cases. I was feeling randy with the great spring >weather we are having - not at all like the usual hail showers. > > >Tim Fisher >Ore-Rock-On and Pacific Fishery Biologists WWW Sites > >Tim@OreRockOn.com >WWW: http://OreRockOn.com >See naked fish and rocks! > > >- > > > - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Rich Ralph" Subject: [CANSLIM] HTMMIS or 24 Lessonss? Date: 07 Apr 2000 21:27:55 -0400 Hi All, I have a friend who is just starting out, and wants to learn before jumping in. I'd like to know the groups opinion on whether I should recommend HTMMIS, or 24 Lessons, (or perhaps both) as the better book to learn CANSLIM? Good Trading, _| _| _| _| _| _| _| _| _| _| _| _| _| _| Rich Ralph _| GO WINGS! GO STATE! - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Groups at the 40th place Date: 07 Apr 2000 22:27:10 -0400 Hummmmm, you present a very sound and logical argument. I think I will have to be more open minded on the group and other related groups. I would be interested in why the service groups are not so attractive. I would have thought they would start picking up as old wells are refurbished, and capped wells are brought back into production to meet the higher demand (and participate in the higher price today compared to six months or so ago), and new exploration on and off land expanded with a stabilized higher price. I generally agree with you on the overall financial sector. However, the brokerage stocks within the financial sector are unlikely to be hurt by a further rise in rates. And if the recent selloff in the market helps slow consumer spending, we may be near the end of rate increases by Mr. G, and that will boost the financial sector overall. IPO activity was far higher in the first quarter than anticipated, and volume was extremely heavy, so the brokerage houses are likely to report substantially increased revenues and earnings from both of these. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html ----- Original Message ----- Sent: Friday, April 07, 2000 9:22 AM Tom, I think you are right about the price of oil falling but not about the stock prices. The price of oil will be stabilized in the mid-20's because demand has increased and the capacity of OPEC to ramp up production is limited. The collapse in oil at the end of 98 was a result of the economic collapse in South Asia along with a badly timed increase in the OPEC production quotas. Since then, oil emand has not only returned to normal but is greater than it was at that time. The economies of Asia including China and India (as well as those that collapsed in 98)show increased demand for oil. Because of uncertainties in the price of oil, because some production was taken permanently out when the price collapsed and because there is a continuing movement away from "dirty" fuels - coal and nuclear, to natural gas for generation of electricity, the price will be well supported in the mid twenties, a price that allows for exploration and good profitability by producers. The most likely scenario is that oil producers will have blow out quarters and will be rediscovered as value plays, getting rotational money from beleagered high tech, that energy serivce companies will not show good profitability until the 3rd or 4th quarter and will sell off after reporting. I can go on but won't. With regard to financial sectors, I would be careful considering them for investment at this time, because it is not clear what the Fed will do, and how the dollar will hold up. Finance has been in the doldrums for this year but it is not clear to me that it has yet bottomed. JMHO, rolatzi --- Tom Worley wrote: > Out of curiosity, after my last posted reply, decided to > check out which groups were around the 40th ranking. Here > is > what I found: > > 36 39 64 MEDICAL/DENTAL/SERV > 37 40 35 HOUSEHOLD-AUDIO/VIDEO > 38 43 43 ENERGY-OTHER > 39 50 101 OIL&GAS-FIELD SERVICES > 40 41 77 FINANCE-INVESTMENT BKRS > 41 53 118 COMML SVCS-SCHOOLS > > The first column is the current weekly ranking, second > column last week, and the third column ranking 3 months > ago. > Note the groups ranked 38 thru 41. # 38 I wouldn't touch > in > the face of falling oil prices, and # 39 for similar > reasons > combined with the natural lag it has with prior rising > prices. It's sharp rise over 3 months is likely to be > retraced even faster. > > But note the sharp rise in # 40, consistent with all the > street talk of improved earnings due higher volume in the > first quarter along with higher number of IPOs than > normal. > Don't ask me to account for the 3 month performance in # > 41, > with a tight labor market maybe more people are trying to > upgrade their skills?? > > Tom Worley > stkguru@netside.net > chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 > get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html > > > > > - > > __________________________________________________ Do You Yahoo!? Talk to your friends online with Yahoo! Messenger. http://im.yahoo.com - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: [CANSLIM] I'm impressed Date: 07 Apr 2000 22:36:50 -0400 I actually got Schwab to not only admit to a mistake, but to admit I knew more than their staff responding to my complaint. What a way to end an interesting week. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: rolatzi Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Groups at the 40th place Date: 08 Apr 2000 05:05:34 -0700 (PDT) Tom, The lack of certainty on OPEC's actions over the last year or so has caused exploration and production companies to not ramp up quickly to meet possible demand. As a result, oil service companies are a little slow in recovering business. In terms of their stock prices people may be disappointed when this quarter's earnings come out. By contrast it is likely that production companies will have excellent quarters simply based on the current price of oil, if they haven't hedged their production too much. As a result, they may surprise may analysts to the upside. This recovery in the energy market has been to some degree overlooked by analysts, or not really believed. During the last few weeks volatility, they have provided a very good buffer for tech stocks and have generally moved in the opposite direction. Energy was off yesterday. ciao, rolatzi --- Tom Worley wrote: > Hummmmm, you present a very sound and logical argument. I > think I will have to be more open minded on the group and > other related groups. I would be interested in why the > service groups are not so attractive. I would have > thought > they would start picking up as old wells are refurbished, > and capped wells are brought back into production to meet > the higher demand (and participate in the higher price > today > compared to six months or so ago), and new exploration on > and off land expanded with a stabilized higher price. > > I generally agree with you on the overall financial > sector. > However, the brokerage stocks within the financial sector > are unlikely to be hurt by a further rise in rates. And > if > the recent selloff in the market helps slow consumer > spending, we may be near the end of rate increases by Mr. > G, > and that will boost the financial sector overall. IPO > activity was far higher in the first quarter than > anticipated, and volume was extremely heavy, so the > brokerage houses are likely to report substantially > increased revenues and earnings from both of these. > > Tom Worley > stkguru@netside.net > chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 > get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html > > > ----- Original Message ----- > From: rolatzi > To: > Sent: Friday, April 07, 2000 9:22 AM > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Groups at the 40th place > > > Tom, > > I think you are right about the price of oil falling but > not about the stock prices. The price of oil will be > stabilized in the mid-20's because demand has increased > and > the capacity of OPEC to ramp up production is limited. > The > collapse in oil at the end of 98 was a result of the > economic collapse in South Asia along with a badly timed > increase in the OPEC production quotas. Since then, oil > emand has not only returned to normal but is greater than > it was at that time. The economies of Asia including > China > and India (as well as those that collapsed in 98)show > increased demand for oil. Because of uncertainties in > the > price of oil, because some production was taken > permanently > out when the price collapsed and because there is a > continuing movement away from "dirty" fuels - coal and > nuclear, to natural gas for generation of electricity, > the > price will be well supported in the mid twenties, a price > that allows for exploration and good profitability by > producers. The most likely scenario is that oil > producers > will have blow out quarters and will be rediscovered as > value plays, getting rotational money from beleagered > high > tech, that energy serivce companies will not show good > profitability until the 3rd or 4th quarter and will sell > off after reporting. I can go on but won't. > > With regard to financial sectors, I would be careful > considering them for investment at this time, because it > is > not clear what the Fed will do, and how the dollar will > hold up. Finance has been in the doldrums for this year > but it is not clear to me that it has yet bottomed. > JMHO, > rolatzi > > > --- Tom Worley wrote: > > Out of curiosity, after my last posted reply, decided > to > > check out which groups were around the 40th ranking. > Here > > is > > what I found: > > > > 36 39 64 MEDICAL/DENTAL/SERV > > 37 40 35 HOUSEHOLD-AUDIO/VIDEO > > 38 43 43 ENERGY-OTHER > > 39 50 101 OIL&GAS-FIELD SERVICES > > 40 41 77 FINANCE-INVESTMENT BKRS > > 41 53 118 COMML SVCS-SCHOOLS > > > > The first column is the current weekly ranking, second > > column last week, and the third column ranking 3 months > > ago. > > Note the groups ranked 38 thru 41. # 38 I wouldn't > touch > > in > > the face of falling oil prices, and # 39 for similar > > reasons > > combined with the natural lag it has with prior rising > > prices. It's sharp rise over 3 months is likely to be > > retraced even faster. > > > > But note the sharp rise in # 40, consistent with all > the > > street talk of improved earnings due higher volume in > the > > first quarter along with higher number of IPOs than > > normal. > > Don't ask me to account for the 3 month performance in > # > > 41, > > with a tight labor market maybe more people are trying > to > > upgrade their skills?? > > > > Tom Worley > > stkguru@netside.net > > chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 > > get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html > > > > > > > > > > - > > > > > > __________________________________________________ > Do You Yahoo!? > Talk to your friends online with Yahoo! Messenger. > http://im.yahoo.com > > - > > > > - > > __________________________________________________ Do You Yahoo!? Talk to your friends online with Yahoo! Messenger. http://im.yahoo.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Surindra J. Singh" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] I'm impressed Date: 08 Apr 2000 08:41:32 -0400 (EDT) I know Tom you have special place in your heart for brokerage sector. Having said that, I could not make from your comments about SCH wheather you are *recommeding* this a buy or not! (I know you will deny that you never ever recommend) Group RS 77, RS 68, ESP rate 96, PE 77, institutional ownership 35%, management owns 25%. Regards Surindra On Fri, 7 Apr 2000, Tom Worley wrote: > I actually got Schwab to not only admit to a mistake, but to > admit I knew more than their staff responding to my > complaint. What a way to end an interesting week. > > Tom Worley > stkguru@netside.net > chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 > get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html > > > > > - > > - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] I'm impressed Date: 08 Apr 2000 08:56:41 -0400 Actually Surindra, I should have been more careful in what I said, as I forgot I had also been talking here about the brokerage sector favorably. I have not looked at Schwab in terms of an investment in some time, will take a look at the chart this weekend. My "I'm impressed" was simply a compliment to Schwab's customer service. They promise prompt (24 hour) response to complaints, and have always delivered for me in this regard. But their answers tend to be canned responses, and in my case they are usually less knowledgable than I. In this particular exchange of email, the issue was the order display rules. They failed to display my buy limit. On the day in question, the offer never reached my limit, but trades occurred below it, and the displayed bid was also below it. Thus, there is no way of determining that I would, or would not, have been executed. By their failure to display my order (which was actually a failure of their subsidiary Mayer Schweitzer), they became obligated to fill my order at my limit. Their first response was to explain how the bid and ask works. I wrote back explaining a little of my 40+ years in the market. Their next responses were more appropriate, but finally they went back and did their homework. They finally admitted the error, and assured me they would have to fill my order had I not already gotten filled on the following day without the stock running away in the meantime. I lost nothing by their error, there was no damage, so it was an easy admission for them. But getting a big firm like this to admit the error, and admit they would have to make it right, isn't easy. I give Schwab top honors for good customer service. And besides, I always like educating big firms! Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html ----- Original Message ----- Sent: Saturday, April 08, 2000 8:41 AM I know Tom you have special place in your heart for brokerage sector. Having said that, I could not make from your comments about SCH wheather you are *recommeding* this a buy or not! (I know you will deny that you never ever recommend) Group RS 77, RS 68, ESP rate 96, PE 77, institutional ownership 35%, management owns 25%. Regards Surindra On Fri, 7 Apr 2000, Tom Worley wrote: > I actually got Schwab to not only admit to a mistake, but to > admit I knew more than their staff responding to my > complaint. What a way to end an interesting week. > > Tom Worley > stkguru@netside.net > chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 > get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html > > > > > - > > - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: [CANSLIM] DGO List Date: 08 Apr 2000 11:02:45 -0400 The short list makes my review easy. I have tried to compensate for the record volatility of the past week in this. Overall, only 71 survived the criteria of the basic list (RS and EPS over 80; at or within 5% of the 12 month high). Last week there were 100 candidates, week prior 86, and week before that 129, so we are definitely seeing some consolidation. But my sense is that many other stocks are still close to their highs, and ready to set new ones, given the right "M". As always, Bx = Base (x = nr of weeks) AMCC - correction on light vol, initial recovery on strong volume, 99/99/A/A/A/A, worth watching PLMD - B2 AMK - cup formed? ANEN - impressive, talk about stocks "holding up"!, probably too late to buy except for day traders HOTT - B1 XLNX - locked in a trading range XLTC - B2 CGII - showing a nice compact LLUR short term pattern APCC - B3 SCI - B2 LTRE - B2 TWP - B2 ASF - B6?? DIO - B2 SGR - B2 PCCC - possible cup, impressive performance in a bad week, low PE CDWC - B1 HH - B4+ DYN - B5 SANM - B3 USTR - B2 FII - smooth chart MXIM - B3 WDR - B1+ CTEA - B1 SHP - B2+ KP - B1+ MOLXA B4+ CBM B2 Happy hunting, and good luck Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Robert Subject: [CANSLIM] Acc/Dis Numbers Date: 08 Apr 2000 14:03:41 -0400 Here are the latest Acc/Dis Numbers: Date A B C D E AB/A:E %E 3/7/00 2102 2181 1160 1069 587 60% 8% 3/8/00 2127 2171 1127 1084 614 60% 9% 3/9/00 2104 2091 1134 1111 674 59% 9% 3/10/00 2048 2114 1146 1112 690 59% 10% 3/13/00 2112 2132 1146 1074 663 60% 9% 03/14/00 2108 2111 1144 1090 670 59% 9% 03/15/00 2051 2072 1205 1097 702 58% 10% 03/16/00 1903 2165 1166 1166 678 57% 10% 03/17/00 1758 2403 1210 1108 583 59% 8% 03/20/00 1825 2663 1160 958 447 64% 6% 03/21/00 1821 2666 1182 956 431 64% 6% 03/22/00 1727 2689 1210 973 423 63% 6% 03/23/00 1691 2717 1202 977 406 63% 6% 03/24/00 1740 2749 1176 936 399 64% 6% 03/27/00 1765 2767 1177 910 400 65% 6% 03/28/00 1747 2776 1197 928 369 64% 5% 03/29/00 1759 2795 1158 937 367 65% 5% 03/30/00 1676 2802 1174 927 398 64% 6% 03/31/00 1553 2860 1206 952 393 63% 6% 04/03/00 1390 2892 1279 942 424 62% 6% 04/04/00 1470 2864 1247 924 417 63% 6% 04/05/00 1388 2872 1258 973 405 62% 6% 04/06/00 1077 2904 1320 1086 439 58% 6% 04/07/00 1092 2923 1338 1058 410 59% 6% 04/10/00 1143 2979 1338 999 391 60% 6% Spreadsheet version: Date,A,B,C,D,E,AB/A:E,%E 3/7/00,2102,2181,1160,1069,587,60%,8%,, 3/8/00,2127,2171,1127,1084,614,60%,9% 3/9/00,2104,2091,1134,1111,674,59%,9% 3/10/00,2048,2114,1146,1112,690,59%,10% 3/13/00,2112,2132,1146,1074,663,60%,9% 03/14/00,2108,2111,1144,1090,670,59%,9% 03/15/00,2051,2072,1205,1097,702,58%,10% 03/16/00,1903,2165,1166,1166,678,57%,10% 03/17/00,1758,2403,1210,1108,583,59%,8% 03/20/00,1825,2663,1160,958,447,64%,6% 03/21/00,1821,2666,1182,956,431,64%,6% 03/22/00,1727,2689,1210,973,423,63%,6% 03/23/00,1691,2717,1202,977,406,63%,6% 03/24/00,1740,2749,1176,936,399,64%,6% 03/27/00,1765,2767,1177,910,400,65%,6% 03/28/00,1747,2776,1197,928,369,64%,5% 03/29/00,1759,2795,1158,937,367,65%,5% 03/30/00,1676,2802,1174,927,398,64%,6% 03/31/00,1553,2860,1206,952,393,63%,6% 04/03/00,1390,2892,1279,942,424,62%,6% 04/04/00,1470,2864,1247,924,417,63%,6% 04/05/00,1388,2872,1258,973,405,62%,6% 04/06/00,1077,2904,1320,1086,439,58%,6% 04/07/00,1092,2923,1338,1058,410,59%,6% 04/10/00,1143,2979,1338,999,391,60%,6% Robert - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Earl Setser Subject: [CANSLIM] Industry Group Strength Date: 08 Apr 2000 18:45:50 -0600 Well, I've spent some time and generated the Group Strength lists I mentioned the other day. Here they are in case others are interested. The top 40 groups since 1/1 are (ranked 1 to 40): Elec-Semiconductor Mfg Elec-Semiconductor Equip Medical-Generic Drugs Oil &Gas-Drilling Oil&Gas-Machinery/Equip Elec-Measrng Instruments Computer-Memory Devices Telecommunications-Equip Elec-Scientific Instrumn Computer-Graphics Elec-Laser Sys/Component Electrical-Connectors Elec-Parts Distributors Medical-Biomed/Genetics Medical-Ethical Drugs Medical-Products Computer-Optical Recogtn Oil&Gas-Field Services Elec Products-Misc Oil&Gas-U S Explo&Prod Electrical-Equipment Energy-Other Leisure-Photo Equip/Rel Oil&Gas-Prod/Pipeline Elec-Misc Componets Telecommunications-Svcs Bldg-Heavy Const Medical/Dental/Serv Medical-Instruments Computer Softwr-Security Comml Svcs-Security/Sfty Finance-Investment Bkrs Computer-Peripheral Eq Machinery-MtlHdlg/Autmn Houshold-Audio/Video Electrical-Control Instr Oil&Gas-Intl Specialty Comml Svcs-Schools Computer-Manufacturers Office-Equip&Automatn And the more or less top 40 groups since the peak of the NASDAQ are as follows. (Note that I only looked at groups in the top 60 over 6 months, and those with greater than 10% gain YTD, so I may have missed a couple of really laggard groups that have performed well over the last month.) Retail-Consumer Elect Retail-Apparel/Shoe Finance-Investment Mgmt Banks-Money Center Medical-Hospitals Retail-Discount&Variety Bldg-Heavy Const Food-Dairy Products Real Estate Operations Oil &Gas-Drilling Oil&Gas-Machinery/Equip Oil&Gas-U S Explo&Prod Machinery-MtlHdlg/Autmn Medical-Generis Drugs Office-Equip&Automatn Leisure-Products Auto/Truck-Original Eqp Electrical-Connectors Comml Svcs-Schools Elec-Parts Distributors Comml Svcs-Security/Sfty Oil&Gas-Prod/Pipeline Oil&Gas-Intl Specialty Electrical-Equipment Oil&Gas-Field Services Elec-Military Systems Leisure-Photo Equip/Rel Utility-Telephone Finance-Publ Inv Fd-Frn Finance-Investment Bkrs Comml Svcs-Staffing Chemicals-Plastics Polution Control-Svcs Electrical-Control Instr Retail/Whlsle-Cmptr/Cell Telecommunctns-Cellulr Media-Cable TV Comml Svcs-Misc Medical/Dental/Serv Auto/Truck-Replace Prts A quick look at this list makes it pretty easy for me to choose which to use. There is almost no Tech representation on the later list, and I believe this just shows how other industries have outperformed during this correction. The first list does a good job of shuffling some of the laggard groups down or out without throwing away those tech groups that did better than average. I think I'll use the first list as my basis for a new Leaders List. Comments or suggestions, as always, are welcome!! - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Charles Dille" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Tom W. Your Ideas on SLR Date: 09 Apr 2000 08:12:12 -0500 Thanks for alll of your help. I appreciate your insite on this stock, I jumped the gun on this stock around 3/14 or 15th based on a tip, which I hope turns out OK in the long run. Thanks Charlie ----- Original Message ----- Sent: Friday, April 07, 2000 1:04 AM > Hi Charlie, > > You don't mention when you bot it, whether during its > abbreviated 2+ week trading range base, or on 4/4 as it > appeared to break out on volume. If the latter, I think I > would say it was a reasonable choice, despite the low RS > (it's at 70 now and was even lower on 4/4). Volume ended up > only 1.3X ADV, but still looked strong in an ugly market. > > If you bot during the short base, I would say you were > premature. Throughout that base, and ignoring the fact that > it was short, the RS was falling almost every day, and at > the start of the base was only about 70. Having RS at or > over 80 is important to ensure that the stock is "in favor". > It is very much a "popularity campaign" indicator on a short > term basis. Watching it on a daily basis, you can easily see > the trend short term as well. > > Mkt cap/sales ratio is only about 2.7, so not overvalued > there. Both sales and earnings show consistent and solid > growth, earnings in the 50% range and sales in the 30-40% > range, suggesting some earnings efficiencies. While trailing > PE is high at 66, the far more important forward looking PE > for the current year drops to 55, and for 2001 to about 47, > not much different than the S&P500. > > If I was looking to buy on 4/4, I likely would have waited > until 4/5 when it broke the 45 3/8 level set at the start of > the short base. Volume was also slightly heavier that day. > Today, on a moderate drop, volume was well under ADV. Funds > already own 32% of the stock, while management has too > little at stake for my tastes with only a 1% ownership. > Debt is higher than I like in a rising interest rate > environment at 33%. Because of its low RS, it is a long way > from leadership in its group, tho the group is strong at 93. > > Just some quick thoughts from a disinterested observer. Glad > you're making decisions, and taking actions, and even making > money to boot! What a great country. > > Tom Worley > stkguru@netside.net > chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 > get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html > > > ----- Original Message ----- > From: Charles Dille > To: Canslim List > Sent: Thursday, April 06, 2000 8:28 AM > Subject: [CANSLIM] Your Ideas on SLR > > > I have been following SLR for about 30 days and am long at > 42 3/16 > > I would like any input from some of the " old hands " here > about this choice > > Thanks, Charlie > > > - > > > > - > - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Tom W. Your Ideas on SLR Date: 09 Apr 2000 10:27:42 -0400 Hi Charlie, A buy on 3/14 or 3/15 was definitely "jumping the gun". It completed a split on 3/9, which often results in short term selling as shareholders sell off their newly received shares. Overall at that point, the stock was in a definite downtrend (lower highs, lower lows). I haven't researched the cause of the gap up on volume, but that was a dangerous point for entry. I am glad it has finally worked out for you so that you have a respectable profit for the risk you took. Be careful of tips, like sexually transmitted diseases, you often don't know the original source. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html ----- Original Message ----- Sent: Sunday, April 09, 2000 9:12 AM Thanks for alll of your help. I appreciate your insite on this stock, I jumped the gun on this stock around 3/14 or 15th based on a tip, which I hope turns out OK in the long run. Thanks Charlie ----- Original Message ----- Sent: Friday, April 07, 2000 1:04 AM > Hi Charlie, > > You don't mention when you bot it, whether during its > abbreviated 2+ week trading range base, or on 4/4 as it > appeared to break out on volume. If the latter, I think I > would say it was a reasonable choice, despite the low RS > (it's at 70 now and was even lower on 4/4). Volume ended up > only 1.3X ADV, but still looked strong in an ugly market. > > If you bot during the short base, I would say you were > premature. Throughout that base, and ignoring the fact that > it was short, the RS was falling almost every day, and at > the start of the base was only about 70. Having RS at or > over 80 is important to ensure that the stock is "in favor". > It is very much a "popularity campaign" indicator on a short > term basis. Watching it on a daily basis, you can easily see > the trend short term as well. > > Mkt cap/sales ratio is only about 2.7, so not overvalued > there. Both sales and earnings show consistent and solid > growth, earnings in the 50% range and sales in the 30-40% > range, suggesting some earnings efficiencies. While trailing > PE is high at 66, the far more important forward looking PE > for the current year drops to 55, and for 2001 to about 47, > not much different than the S&P500. > > If I was looking to buy on 4/4, I likely would have waited > until 4/5 when it broke the 45 3/8 level set at the start of > the short base. Volume was also slightly heavier that day. > Today, on a moderate drop, volume was well under ADV. Funds > already own 32% of the stock, while management has too > little at stake for my tastes with only a 1% ownership. > Debt is higher than I like in a rising interest rate > environment at 33%. Because of its low RS, it is a long way > from leadership in its group, tho the group is strong at 93. > > Just some quick thoughts from a disinterested observer. Glad > you're making decisions, and taking actions, and even making > money to boot! What a great country. > > Tom Worley > stkguru@netside.net > chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 > get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html > > > ----- Original Message ----- > From: Charles Dille > To: Canslim List > Sent: Thursday, April 06, 2000 8:28 AM > Subject: [CANSLIM] Your Ideas on SLR > > > I have been following SLR for about 30 days and am long at > 42 3/16 > > I would like any input from some of the " old hands " here > about this choice > > Thanks, Charlie > > > - > > > > - > - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: han.26@osu.edu Subject: [CANSLIM] 24 lessons vs. HTMMIS Date: 09 Apr 2000 17:34:28 -0700 Rich, Both overlap significantly. HTMMIS is more in depth and detailed. 24 Lessons is more recent and is available online through http://www.investors.com -Jim --- Hi All, I have a friend who is just starting out, and wants to learn before jumping in. I'd like to know the groups opinion on whether I should recommend HTMMIS, or 24 Lessons, (or perhaps both) as the better book to learn CANSLIM? Good Trading, _| _| _| _| _| _| _| _| _| _| _| _| _| _| Rich Ralph - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: [CANSLIM] Mr. Greenspan's latest speech Date: 09 Apr 2000 18:32:59 -0400 Just finished reading Mr. G's speech to Congress April 5 on the "new economy". Quite interesting reading, and I recommend it to anyone interested in the US economy, or those watching for future rate hikes. It is also a powerful summary statement on the impact from information technology and, I suspect, a shift on the acceptable level of growth for the future. It may signal the end to rate hikes for now, or at least a "no change" at the May meeting, especially since the Feds like to skip a meeting between rate hikes, and they meet again in June. It can be found at http://www.bog.frb.fed.us./boarddocs/speeches/2000/20000405. htm Some interesting quotes: It has become increasingly difficult to deny that something profoundly different from the typical postwar business cycle has emerged in recent years. Not only has the expansion reached record length, but it has done so with far stronger-than-expected economic growth. Most remarkably, inflation has remained subdued in the face of labor markets tighter than any we have experienced in a generation. I see no reason that productivity growth cannot remain elevated, or even increase further ...an increase in employment beyond the growth of the working-age population is limited to what remains of our shrinking pool of available workers. Although the sum of the unemployed and those not in the labor force but who nonetheless are available for work is still about ten million, the level has been falling steadily...scarcity of labor will almost surely induce a rise in hourly compensation gains that increasingly outpaces an even faster productivity growth--a condition that would cause unit costs to accelerate over time we do not know how long net imports and U.S. external debt can rise before foreign investors become reluctant to continue to add to their portfolios of claims against the United States. At that point, the safety valve of net imports could narrow or close. It is conceivable that these two buffers can continue to absorb an excess growth of demand over potential supply for quite a while longer. The rise in stock prices, as well as in the capital gains on homes, has created a marked increase in purchasing power without providing an equivalent and immediate expansion in the supply of goods and services The persuasive evidence that the wealth effect is contributing to the risk of imbalances in our economy, however, does not imply that the most straightforward way to restore balance in financial and product markets is for monetary policy to target asset price levels one result of the more-rapid pace of information technology innovation has been a visible acceleration of the process of "creative destruction," a shifting of capital from failing technologies into those technologies at the cutting edge In short, information technology raises output per hour in the total economy principally by reducing hours worked on activities needed to guard productive processes against the unknown and the unanticipated. Narrowing the uncertainties reduces the number of hours required to maintain any given level of production readiness. Because knowledge is essentially irreversible, much, if not most, of the recent gains in productivity appear permanent. It appears to be only a matter of time before the Internet becomes a prime venue for the trillions of dollars of business-to-business commerce conducted every year. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Earl Setser Subject: [CANSLIM] Leaders List Date: 09 Apr 2000 19:52:02 -0600 Here is my latest "Leaders List". This list is assembled by taking stocks in the top 40 Industry Groups (since 1/1) and generating a score for the stocks by combining IBD EPS, RPS, SPR rating, A/D rating, and Sponsorship rank. I try to remove any stocks that are being purchased from the list. The list is the top 100 (or so) stocks by score (in order, highest scores first). I monitor this list for technical signals to buy. This list represents strong stocks that you may want to watch, but they have not been reviewed for technical signals yet, so PLEASE do your own DD before you buy. Note I'm 100% cash right now and waiting for a FT day before any purchases. This list is slightly different from my previous lists in that I haven't included IGP ranking in the formula. I've removed it since I believe we haven't seen where the new leadership will come from. Given that, I've leveled the top 40 groups since 1/1. AMCC MVSN QGENF QCOM CHKP TQNT JDSU QLGC PLMD RFMD PWAV NTAP VTSS ADIC PWR PROX PMCS SDLI AMKR DSPG XLTC ZOMX DY PLXT XETA TLGD ANEN ADCT SILI VSAT DIIG CPN SNDK RMD ZOLL CREE BBRC FLEX INTI SMTC XLNX ELNT AMK AFCI ADI APCC VOXX PSEM TECH TNL WFII MCRL ALTR MCHP SBL WAT PWER SFA SAWS MKSI TKLC DRAM AMAT MWD RSYS LTRE GLW CMVT SCI OCCF MDCC AUDC ARMHY MXIM SSTI ADTN DITC NEWP SANM DIO CBXC GILTF JBL LXK ADRX NANO VECO GICOF CGNX INFS HAUP KEI TER IVGN EXAC CHP DYN ISSX ESIO CTS NT ORBK - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "John Adair" Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] DGO List Date: 09 Apr 2000 22:29:41 -0500 Thanks for the list. Would you explain the meaning of the B1,B2,B3, etc indicates -----Original Message----- [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of Tom Worley Sent: Saturday, April 08, 2000 10:03 AM The short list makes my review easy. I have tried to compensate for the record volatility of the past week in this. Overall, only 71 survived the criteria of the basic list (RS and EPS over 80; at or within 5% of the 12 month high). Last week there were 100 candidates, week prior 86, and week before that 129, so we are definitely seeing some consolidation. But my sense is that many other stocks are still close to their highs, and ready to set new ones, given the right "M". As always, Bx = Base (x = nr of weeks) AMCC - correction on light vol, initial recovery on strong volume, 99/99/A/A/A/A, worth watching PLMD - B2 AMK - cup formed? ANEN - impressive, talk about stocks "holding up"!, probably too late to buy except for day traders HOTT - B1 XLNX - locked in a trading range XLTC - B2 CGII - showing a nice compact LLUR short term pattern APCC - B3 SCI - B2 LTRE - B2 TWP - B2 ASF - B6?? DIO - B2 SGR - B2 PCCC - possible cup, impressive performance in a bad week, low PE CDWC - B1 HH - B4+ DYN - B5 SANM - B3 USTR - B2 FII - smooth chart MXIM - B3 WDR - B1+ CTEA - B1 SHP - B2+ KP - B1+ MOLXA B4+ CBM B2 Happy hunting, and good luck Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] DGO List Date: 10 Apr 2000 05:00:33 -0400 B is my shorthand for a base, where the number indicates the nr of weeks I read the chart as forming the current base. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html ----- Original Message ----- Sent: Sunday, April 09, 2000 11:29 PM Thanks for the list. Would you explain the meaning of the B1,B2,B3, etc indicates -----Original Message----- [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of Tom Worley Sent: Saturday, April 08, 2000 10:03 AM The short list makes my review easy. I have tried to compensate for the record volatility of the past week in this. Overall, only 71 survived the criteria of the basic list (RS and EPS over 80; at or within 5% of the 12 month high). Last week there were 100 candidates, week prior 86, and week before that 129, so we are definitely seeing some consolidation. But my sense is that many other stocks are still close to their highs, and ready to set new ones, given the right "M". As always, Bx = Base (x = nr of weeks) AMCC - correction on light vol, initial recovery on strong volume, 99/99/A/A/A/A, worth watching PLMD - B2 AMK - cup formed? ANEN - impressive, talk about stocks "holding up"!, probably too late to buy except for day traders HOTT - B1 XLNX - locked in a trading range XLTC - B2 CGII - showing a nice compact LLUR short term pattern APCC - B3 SCI - B2 LTRE - B2 TWP - B2 ASF - B6?? DIO - B2 SGR - B2 PCCC - possible cup, impressive performance in a bad week, low PE CDWC - B1 HH - B4+ DYN - B5 SANM - B3 USTR - B2 FII - smooth chart MXIM - B3 WDR - B1+ CTEA - B1 SHP - B2+ KP - B1+ MOLXA B4+ CBM B2 Happy hunting, and good luck Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html - - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: travis bolster Subject: [CANSLIM] PLMD Breakout? Date: 10 Apr 2000 07:55:05 -0700 (PDT) PLMD is up 5 today to 60 on heavy volume(been as high as 62). Anyone belive this might be a breakout? Thanks, Travis __________________________________________________ Do You Yahoo!? Talk to your friends online with Yahoo! Messenger. http://im.yahoo.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: JANSI1AUG1@aol.com Subject: [CANSLIM] Re. Target Price Date: 10 Apr 2000 22:44:08 EDT Dan: In the #867 of Canslim Digest you indicated stocks you were looking at and you gave the projected target price of each. How are you determining them? Since, for example, PLMD is near its high there would be no resistance area-nor any moving average that I can see. What do you use, and what is your method of calculating the "target areas"? Jans - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] PLMD Breakout? Date: 10 Apr 2000 23:06:32 -0400 sorry Travis, but I suspect you had the answer well before the closing bell. I would not expect a clean (one you can anticipate) breakout from such a chaotic chart. Compare the extreme volatility of recent weeks with the orderly pattern for many months before. It needs to dry up the volume and consolidate in a tight range to give better signals. And it would be strongly preferable that it do so closer to a horizontal pattern than a declining one. With a short "base" like this one, I would only watch and see if it calms down first. After that, it may give you a good entry point. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html ----- Original Message ----- Sent: Monday, April 10, 2000 10:55 AM PLMD is up 5 today to 60 on heavy volume(been as high as 62). Anyone belive this might be a breakout? Thanks, Travis __________________________________________________ Do You Yahoo!? Talk to your friends online with Yahoo! Messenger. http://im.yahoo.com - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Dan Sutton" Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] Re. Target Price Date: 10 Apr 2000 21:17:15 -0600 Generally speaking, I use a method that I learned about via Ian Woodward that he calls "Gas in Tank". He arrives at a "Benchmark" PE ratio (50 day average of the price divided by the trailing 12 month earnings). Then subtract the current quarters projected earnings from 4 quarters ago. Now subtract next quarters earnings from three quarters ago. Add the two. Now multiply the Benchmark PE times the sum of the differences in earnings and add that to the current price. After I buy the stock, I normally enter a sell order at the target price so I don't have to try and time the sell exactly. When I enter the trade I have already convinced myself I will be happy with the target price. If it goes higher (which it often does) after I am out, there is never a shortage of more trains waiting to leave the station...and I am happy with the profit I made. -----Original Message----- [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of JANSI1AUG1@aol.com Sent: Monday, April 10, 2000 8:44 PM Dan: In the #867 of Canslim Digest you indicated stocks you were looking at and you gave the projected target price of each. How are you determining them? Since, for example, PLMD is near its high there would be no resistance area-nor any moving average that I can see. What do you use, and what is your method of calculating the "target areas"? Jans - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Alexander T Subject: [CANSLIM] Follow through's Date: 11 Apr 2000 11:14:14 -0400 (EDT) Hi, After the first day of rally we start counting days until we see a follow through. Now, does anyone remember what resets these days? 1. Market undercutting previous intraday low during the day, but closing above that previous intraday low, or 2. Market CLOSING below previous intraday low I am actually asking because I think in today's investor's corner IBD used #2, and I thought it was #1. Thanks ! ______________________________________________ FREE Personalized Email at Mail.com Sign up at http://www.mail.com/?sr=signup - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Follow through's Date: 11 Apr 2000 09:07:16 -0700 Hi Alexander, A very good question as I was just thinking the same thing. My understanding is that the rally continues counting days as long as the intraday low that occurred on the 1ST DAY OF THE START OF THE RALLY is not violated. I just called IBD and talked to someone named Mike who concurred with this thinking...What was interesting from my conversation with Mike was when the rally started...I had thought that the 1ST day occurred on 4/4 when we had that deep low of 3649.11 and that strong retracement to close at 4148.89. IBD (Mike) said the 1ST day of the current rally was 4/5 not 4/4 because the start of the rally has to close higher than the previous day's close. So according to IBD's Mike, today is day 5 of the current rally attempt and the counting continues unless we undercut the intraday low we had on 4/5 of 4009.09. What do others think? Ziggy Alexander T wrote: > Hi, > > After the first day of rally we start counting days until we see a follow > through. Now, does anyone remember what resets these days? > > 1. Market undercutting previous intraday low during the day, but closing > above that previous intraday low, or > 2. Market CLOSING below previous intraday low > > I am actually asking because I think in today's investor's corner IBD used > #2, and I thought it was #1. > > Thanks ! > > ______________________________________________ > FREE Personalized Email at Mail.com > Sign up at http://www.mail.com/?sr=signup > > - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "walter nusbaum" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Follow through's Date: 11 Apr 2000 13:25:45 -0500 ----- Original Message ----- Sent: Tuesday, April 11, 2000 11:07 AM Ziggy & Alexander, Well, I'm sorry but I don't see a rally of any kind. 4 APR was the low on very heavy volume. It is my understanding that a follow through day(FT) is required to confirm a rally. There has not been a day since, when the market was up from the previous day on *greater* volume than the day before, which defines a FT. No? Best wishes, Walt > Hi Alexander, > > A very good question as I was just thinking the same thing. > > My understanding is that the rally continues counting days as long as the > intraday low that occurred on the 1ST DAY OF THE START OF THE RALLY is not > violated. I just called IBD and talked to someone named Mike who concurred > with this thinking...What was interesting from my conversation with Mike was > when the rally started...I had thought that the 1ST day occurred on 4/4 when > we had that deep low of 3649.11 and that strong retracement to close at > 4148.89. IBD (Mike) said the 1ST day of the current rally was 4/5 not 4/4 > because the start of the rally has to close higher than the previous day's > close. > > So according to IBD's Mike, today is day 5 of the current rally attempt and > the counting continues unless we undercut the intraday low we had on 4/5 of > 4009.09. > > What do others think? > > Ziggy > > Alexander T wrote: > > > Hi, > > > > After the first day of rally we start counting days until we see a follow > > through. Now, does anyone remember what resets these days? > > > > 1. Market undercutting previous intraday low during the day, but closing > > above that previous intraday low, or > > 2. Market CLOSING below previous intraday low > > > > I am actually asking because I think in today's investor's corner IBD used > > #2, and I thought it was #1. > > > > Thanks ! > > - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "walter nusbaum" Subject: Fw: [CANSLIM] Follow through's Date: 11 Apr 2000 13:42:27 -0500 Ziggy & Alexander, Please disregard my note below. It does not add anything to what you already know. Sorry. Best wishes, Walt ----- Original Message ----- Sent: Tuesday, April 11, 2000 1:25 PM > > ----- Original Message ----- > From: > To: > Sent: Tuesday, April 11, 2000 11:07 AM > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Follow through's > > Ziggy & Alexander, > Well, I'm sorry but I don't see a rally of any kind. 4 APR was the low on > very heavy volume. It is my understanding that a follow through day(FT) is > required to confirm a rally. There has not been a day since, when the market > was up from the previous day on *greater* volume than the day before, which > defines a FT. No? > Best wishes, > Walt > > > > > Hi Alexander, > > > > A very good question as I was just thinking the same thing. > > > > My understanding is that the rally continues counting days as long as the > > intraday low that occurred on the 1ST DAY OF THE START OF THE RALLY is not > > violated. I just called IBD and talked to someone named Mike who concurred > > with this thinking...What was interesting from my conversation with Mike > was > > when the rally started...I had thought that the 1ST day occurred on 4/4 > when > > we had that deep low of 3649.11 and that strong retracement to close at > > 4148.89. IBD (Mike) said the 1ST day of the current rally was 4/5 not 4/4 > > because the start of the rally has to close higher than the previous day's > > close. > > > > So according to IBD's Mike, today is day 5 of the current rally attempt > and > > the counting continues unless we undercut the intraday low we had on 4/5 > of > > 4009.09. > > > > What do others think? > > > > Ziggy > > > > Alexander T wrote: > > > > > Hi, > > > > > > After the first day of rally we start counting days until we see a > follow > > > through. Now, does anyone remember what resets these days? > > > > > > 1. Market undercutting previous intraday low during the day, but closing > > > above that previous intraday low, or > > > 2. Market CLOSING below previous intraday low > > > > > > I am actually asking because I think in today's investor's corner IBD > used > > > #2, and I thought it was #1. > > > > > > Thanks ! > > > > > > > > - > - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Subject: Re: Fw: [CANSLIM] Follow through's Date: 11 Apr 2000 12:24:43 -0700 Sorry Walt, I sent off a response before receiving your second message. Ziggy walter nusbaum wrote: > Ziggy & Alexander, > Please disregard my note below. It does not add anything to what you already > know. Sorry. > Best wishes, > Walt > > ----- Original Message ----- > From: "walter nusbaum" > To: > Sent: Tuesday, April 11, 2000 1:25 PM > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Follow through's > > > > > ----- Original Message ----- > > From: > > To: > > Sent: Tuesday, April 11, 2000 11:07 AM > > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Follow through's > > > > Ziggy & Alexander, > > Well, I'm sorry but I don't see a rally of any kind. 4 APR was the low on > > very heavy volume. It is my understanding that a follow through day(FT) is > > required to confirm a rally. There has not been a day since, when the > market > > was up from the previous day on *greater* volume than the day before, > which > > defines a FT. No? > > Best wishes, > > Walt > > > > > > > > > Hi Alexander, > > > > > > A very good question as I was just thinking the same thing. > > > > > > My understanding is that the rally continues counting days as long as > the > > > intraday low that occurred on the 1ST DAY OF THE START OF THE RALLY is > not > > > violated. I just called IBD and talked to someone named Mike who > concurred > > > with this thinking...What was interesting from my conversation with Mike > > was > > > when the rally started...I had thought that the 1ST day occurred on 4/4 > > when > > > we had that deep low of 3649.11 and that strong retracement to close at > > > 4148.89. IBD (Mike) said the 1ST day of the current rally was 4/5 not > 4/4 > > > because the start of the rally has to close higher than the previous > day's > > > close. > > > > > > So according to IBD's Mike, today is day 5 of the current rally attempt > > and > > > the counting continues unless we undercut the intraday low we had on 4/5 > > of > > > 4009.09. > > > > > > What do others think? > > > > > > Ziggy > > > > > > Alexander T wrote: > > > > > > > Hi, > > > > > > > > After the first day of rally we start counting days until we see a > > follow > > > > through. Now, does anyone remember what resets these days? > > > > > > > > 1. Market undercutting previous intraday low during the day, but > closing > > > > above that previous intraday low, or > > > > 2. Market CLOSING below previous intraday low > > > > > > > > I am actually asking because I think in today's investor's corner IBD > > used > > > > #2, and I thought it was #1. > > > > > > > > Thanks ! > > > > > > > > > > > > > > - > > > > - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Follow through's Date: 11 Apr 2000 12:21:05 -0700 Hi Walt, You are right...a rally is not confirmed until a valid Follow-thru day occurs...but a rally attempt starts when it starts and then you start counting looking for a follow-thru. There are many false rallies that fail to provide a valid follow-thru day as well as some rallies that do have a valid F/T day and subsequently prove to be false also. The current rally (or attempted rally if you prefer) has not had a valid follow-thru day and as such I am not invested. WON defines "a rally as an attempt by a stock or the general market to turn up and advance in price after a period of decline". He further states that "eventually one of the rallies will 'follow-through' ". So a rally is an attempt at changing direction from a downtrend...it may or may not be successful but it is still a rally. What I was trying to bring up for discussion is what does constitute day 1 of a rally attempt. Best regards, Ziggy walter nusbaum wrote: > ----- Original Message ----- > From: > To: > Sent: Tuesday, April 11, 2000 11:07 AM > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Follow through's > > Ziggy & Alexander, > Well, I'm sorry but I don't see a rally of any kind. 4 APR was the low on > very heavy volume. It is my understanding that a follow through day(FT) is > required to confirm a rally. There has not been a day since, when the market > was up from the previous day on *greater* volume than the day before, which > defines a FT. No? > Best wishes, > Walt > > > Hi Alexander, > > > > A very good question as I was just thinking the same thing. > > > > My understanding is that the rally continues counting days as long as the > > intraday low that occurred on the 1ST DAY OF THE START OF THE RALLY is not > > violated. I just called IBD and talked to someone named Mike who concurred > > with this thinking...What was interesting from my conversation with Mike > was > > when the rally started...I had thought that the 1ST day occurred on 4/4 > when > > we had that deep low of 3649.11 and that strong retracement to close at > > 4148.89. IBD (Mike) said the 1ST day of the current rally was 4/5 not 4/4 > > because the start of the rally has to close higher than the previous day's > > close. > > > > So according to IBD's Mike, today is day 5 of the current rally attempt > and > > the counting continues unless we undercut the intraday low we had on 4/5 > of > > 4009.09. > > > > What do others think? > > > > Ziggy > > > > Alexander T wrote: > > > > > Hi, > > > > > > After the first day of rally we start counting days until we see a > follow > > > through. Now, does anyone remember what resets these days? > > > > > > 1. Market undercutting previous intraday low during the day, but closing > > > above that previous intraday low, or > > > 2. Market CLOSING below previous intraday low > > > > > > I am actually asking because I think in today's investor's corner IBD > used > > > #2, and I thought it was #1. > > > > > > Thanks ! > > > > > - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Earl Setser Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Follow through's Date: 11 Apr 2000 19:01:53 -0600 Looking at HTMMIS, I find the following: "... Just because the market corrects the day after a follow-through, however, does not mean the upward follow-through was false. When the general market bottoms, it frequently backs and fills (testing) near the lows made during the previous few weeks. It is usually more constructive if these pull backs or tests hold up at least a little above the absolute intraday lows made recently in the market averages." This isn't really addressing your questions, but he is saying you can see some retracement after the follow-through day. That's kinda scary to me. Overall, we haven't seen any strength in this rally at all, and today's action is a clear distribution day. I don't see anything in the indexes or in the stocks I'm watching that says a follow-through day this week has much of a chance. So, I'll continue to watch and see if the markets can change my mind. At 11:14 AM 4/11/00 -0400, you wrote: >Hi, > >After the first day of rally we start counting days until we see a follow >through. Now, does anyone remember what resets these days? > >1. Market undercutting previous intraday low during the day, but closing >above that previous intraday low, or >2. Market CLOSING below previous intraday low > >I am actually asking because I think in today's investor's corner IBD used >#2, and I thought it was #1. > >Thanks ! > >______________________________________________ >FREE Personalized Email at Mail.com >Sign up at http://www.mail.com/?sr=signup > > >- > > > - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Rich Ralph" Subject: [CANSLIM] Off-topic: Mutual Fund Sites Date: 11 Apr 2000 21:29:59 -0400 This is off-topic, but can people recommend good mutual fund sites. In the past, I've used Morningstar, and Yahoo. Thanks. Good Trading, _| _| _| _| _| _| _| _| _| _| _| _| _| _| Rich Ralph _| GO WINGS! GO STATE! - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Follow through's Date: 11 Apr 2000 22:25:47 -0400 Walt, You did add something, you added to my awareness, you made me go back and study the Nasdaq chart more closely, and realize what I should have already seen, the last day when Naz both closed up, and on volume higher than the prior day, was 3/31. This latest rally attempt has been on dwindling volume, a sure warning sign of the past two days. I shouldn't have been so surprised. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html ----- Original Message ----- Sent: Tuesday, April 11, 2000 2:42 PM Ziggy & Alexander, Please disregard my note below. It does not add anything to what you already know. Sorry. Best wishes, Walt ----- Original Message ----- Sent: Tuesday, April 11, 2000 1:25 PM > > ----- Original Message ----- > From: > To: > Sent: Tuesday, April 11, 2000 11:07 AM > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Follow through's > > Ziggy & Alexander, > Well, I'm sorry but I don't see a rally of any kind. 4 APR was the low on > very heavy volume. It is my understanding that a follow through day(FT) is > required to confirm a rally. There has not been a day since, when the market > was up from the previous day on *greater* volume than the day before, which > defines a FT. No? > Best wishes, > Walt > > > > > Hi Alexander, > > > > A very good question as I was just thinking the same thing. > > > > My understanding is that the rally continues counting days as long as the > > intraday low that occurred on the 1ST DAY OF THE START OF THE RALLY is not > > violated. I just called IBD and talked to someone named Mike who concurred > > with this thinking...What was interesting from my conversation with Mike > was > > when the rally started...I had thought that the 1ST day occurred on 4/4 > when > > we had that deep low of 3649.11 and that strong retracement to close at > > 4148.89. IBD (Mike) said the 1ST day of the current rally was 4/5 not 4/4 > > because the start of the rally has to close higher than the previous day's > > close. > > > > So according to IBD's Mike, today is day 5 of the current rally attempt > and > > the counting continues unless we undercut the intraday low we had on 4/5 > of > > 4009.09. > > > > What do others think? > > > > Ziggy > > > > Alexander T wrote: > > > > > Hi, > > > > > > After the first day of rally we start counting days until we see a > follow > > > through. Now, does anyone remember what resets these days? > > > > > > 1. Market undercutting previous intraday low during the day, but closing > > > above that previous intraday low, or > > > 2. Market CLOSING below previous intraday low > > > > > > I am actually asking because I think in today's investor's corner IBD > used > > > #2, and I thought it was #1. > > > > > > Thanks ! > > > > > > > > - > - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: [CANSLIM] On Greenspan Date: 11 Apr 2000 22:32:50 -0400 I haven't read this speech yet, but this quote from Infobeat sounds strikingly like a reiteration of the one I reviewed earlier. I feel even more strongly a significant change in his stance on productivity, sustainable economic growth rates, and acceptable levels of the labor pool. ** Rapid advances in the U.S. technology sector are fueling a ``vibrant'' U.S. economy marked by higher productivity, rising incomes and an expanding pool of jobs, Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said Tuesday. In a speech, the U.S. central banker painted a positive picture of the benefits of technological innovation for the economy and did not return to his warnings of how stock gains driven by productivity could help to overheat the economy. ``The recent period of technological innovation has created a vibrant economy in which opportunities for new jobs and businesses have blossomed,'' Greenspan said in a speech to the Labor Department's National Skills Summit. ``We are experiencing an extraordinary period of economic innovation and have witnessed its dynamic effects on productivity, real income and job creation,'' he said. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Michelle Ashen Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Re. Target Price Date: 11 Apr 2000 19:58:22 -0700 Please take me off your mailing list. Thanks, Michelle JANSI1AUG1@aol.com wrote: > Dan: > > In the #867 of Canslim Digest you indicated stocks you were looking at > and you gave the projected target price of each. > > How are you determining them? Since, for example, PLMD is near its high > there would be no resistance area-nor any moving average that I can see. What > do you use, and what is your method of calculating the "target areas"? > > Jans > > - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Greg.Nyberg@born.com Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] On Greenspan, MSFT breakdown Date: 11 Apr 2000 22:58:59 -0500 Anyone else worry that this is like the last bear finally throwing in the towel and buying at the top of a market? Wouldn't it be ironic if Greenspan changed his tune EXACTLY when his earlier concerns about the wealth effect begin to show in prices? MSFT has broken below November 99 low, feels very negative for "M" to me. What stocks do others use as their personal "bellweathers" or "leaders" these days? -Greg -----Original Message----- Sent: Tuesday, April 11, 2000 9:33 PM I haven't read this speech yet, but this quote from Infobeat sounds strikingly like a reiteration of the one I reviewed earlier. I feel even more strongly a significant change in his stance on productivity, sustainable economic growth rates, and acceptable levels of the labor pool. ** Rapid advances in the U.S. technology sector are fueling a ``vibrant'' U.S. economy marked by higher productivity, rising incomes and an expanding pool of jobs, Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said Tuesday. In a speech, the U.S. central banker painted a positive picture of the benefits of technological innovation for the economy and did not return to his warnings of how stock gains driven by productivity could help to overheat the economy. ``The recent period of technological innovation has created a vibrant economy in which opportunities for new jobs and businesses have blossomed,'' Greenspan said in a speech to the Labor Department's National Skills Summit. ``We are experiencing an extraordinary period of economic innovation and have witnessed its dynamic effects on productivity, real income and job creation,'' he said. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Luke Lang Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Follow through's Date: 11 Apr 2000 23:11:35 -0700 (PDT) It seems to me that we should be able to quantify what constitutes a follow through day and write a scan for charting programs to identify it. I will take the first stab at it. Please correct me if I'm wrong. I will use QP2's notation. Close(0) and Vol(0) are today's closing price and volume. Close(-1) and Vol(-1) are yesterday's close and volume. A follow through day is identified if all of the following conditions are met: 1) Close(0) >= 1.01 * Close(-1) => closing up by 1% 2) Vol(0) > Vol(-1) => on higher volume For i = 3 to 10, 3) Close(-i) >= 1.01 * Close(-i-1) => first rally attempt 3 to 10 days ago 4) Vol(-i) > Vol(-i-1) => on higher volume Conditions 3) and 4) only have to be met for one day between 3 and 10 days ago. Are there any other conditions that one should add? Thanks. Best regards, Luke Lang --- wroblewski@uswest.net wrote: > Hi Walt, > > You are right...a rally is not confirmed until a > valid Follow-thru day > occurs...but a rally attempt starts when it starts > and then you start counting > looking for a follow-thru. There are many false > rallies that fail to provide a > valid follow-thru day as well as some rallies that > do have a valid F/T day and > subsequently prove to be false also. The current > rally (or attempted rally if > you prefer) has not had a valid follow-thru day and > as such I am not invested. > > WON defines "a rally as an attempt by a stock or the > general market to turn up > and advance in price after a period of decline". He > further states that > "eventually one of the rallies will > 'follow-through' ". So a rally is an > attempt at changing direction from a downtrend...it > may or may not be successful > but it is still a rally. > > What I was trying to bring up for discussion is what > does constitute day 1 of a > rally attempt. > > Best regards, > > Ziggy > > walter nusbaum wrote: > > > ----- Original Message ----- > > From: > > To: > > Sent: Tuesday, April 11, 2000 11:07 AM > > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Follow through's > > > > Ziggy & Alexander, > > Well, I'm sorry but I don't see a rally of any > kind. 4 APR was the low on > > very heavy volume. It is my understanding that a > follow through day(FT) is > > required to confirm a rally. There has not been a > day since, when the market > > was up from the previous day on *greater* volume > than the day before, which > > defines a FT. No? > > Best wishes, > > Walt > > > > > Hi Alexander, > > > > > > A very good question as I was just thinking the > same thing. > > > > > > My understanding is that the rally continues > counting days as long as the > > > intraday low that occurred on the 1ST DAY OF THE > START OF THE RALLY is not > > > violated. I just called IBD and talked to > someone named Mike who concurred > > > with this thinking...What was interesting from > my conversation with Mike > > was > > > when the rally started...I had thought that the > 1ST day occurred on 4/4 > > when > > > we had that deep low of 3649.11 and that strong > retracement to close at > > > 4148.89. IBD (Mike) said the 1ST day of the > current rally was 4/5 not 4/4 > > > because the start of the rally has to close > higher than the previous day's > > > close. > > > > > > So according to IBD's Mike, today is day 5 of > the current rally attempt > > and > > > the counting continues unless we undercut the > intraday low we had on 4/5 > > of > > > 4009.09. > > > > > > What do others think? > > > > > > Ziggy > > > > > > Alexander T wrote: > > > > > > > Hi, > > > > > > > > After the first day of rally we start counting > days until we see a > > follow > > > > through. Now, does anyone remember what > resets these days? > > > > > > > > 1. Market undercutting previous intraday low > during the day, but closing > > > > above that previous intraday low, or > > > > 2. Market CLOSING below previous intraday low > > > > > > > > I am actually asking because I think in > today's investor's corner IBD > > used > > > > #2, and I thought it was #1. > > > > > > > > Thanks ! > > > > > > > > - > > > - > > __________________________________________________ Do You Yahoo!? Send online invitations with Yahoo! Invites. http://invites.yahoo.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Follow through's Date: 12 Apr 2000 08:03:15 -0400 Hi Luke, Since I am not at all familiar with Quotes Plus, I cannot comment on the notations. But one thing I think we are frequently guilty of is ignoring that there is only one marketplace in the USA. Since lately, the Naz and NYSE have acted like they are two totally separate markets, it's easy to focus on only one. But I think that misses the bigger picture, in which money is simply switching from one to the other to concentrate on a particular sector. Right now, money has been flowing out of techs and into "old economy". We've seen this before, and we've also seen it switch back just as fast. I don't recall anything from WON on how closely a follow thru day must occur on both exchanges, anyone can help here? But I think you could evaluate follow thru by exchange, while recognizing that there is incredible linkage between the two. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html ----- Original Message ----- Sent: Wednesday, April 12, 2000 2:11 AM It seems to me that we should be able to quantify what constitutes a follow through day and write a scan for charting programs to identify it. I will take the first stab at it. Please correct me if I'm wrong. I will use QP2's notation. Close(0) and Vol(0) are today's closing price and volume. Close(-1) and Vol(-1) are yesterday's close and volume. A follow through day is identified if all of the following conditions are met: 1) Close(0) >= 1.01 * Close(-1) => closing up by 1% 2) Vol(0) > Vol(-1) => on higher volume For i = 3 to 10, 3) Close(-i) >= 1.01 * Close(-i-1) => first rally attempt 3 to 10 days ago 4) Vol(-i) > Vol(-i-1) => on higher volume Conditions 3) and 4) only have to be met for one day between 3 and 10 days ago. Are there any other conditions that one should add? Thanks. Best regards, Luke Lang --- wroblewski@uswest.net wrote: > Hi Walt, > > You are right...a rally is not confirmed until a > valid Follow-thru day > occurs...but a rally attempt starts when it starts > and then you start counting > looking for a follow-thru. There are many false > rallies that fail to provide a > valid follow-thru day as well as some rallies that > do have a valid F/T day and > subsequently prove to be false also. The current > rally (or attempted rally if > you prefer) has not had a valid follow-thru day and > as such I am not invested. > > WON defines "a rally as an attempt by a stock or the > general market to turn up > and advance in price after a period of decline". He > further states that > "eventually one of the rallies will > 'follow-through' ". So a rally is an > attempt at changing direction from a downtrend...it > may or may not be successful > but it is still a rally. > > What I was trying to bring up for discussion is what > does constitute day 1 of a > rally attempt. > > Best regards, > > Ziggy > > walter nusbaum wrote: > > > ----- Original Message ----- > > From: > > To: > > Sent: Tuesday, April 11, 2000 11:07 AM > > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Follow through's > > > > Ziggy & Alexander, > > Well, I'm sorry but I don't see a rally of any > kind. 4 APR was the low on > > very heavy volume. It is my understanding that a > follow through day(FT) is > > required to confirm a rally. There has not been a > day since, when the market > > was up from the previous day on *greater* volume > than the day before, which > > defines a FT. No? > > Best wishes, > > Walt > > > > > Hi Alexander, > > > > > > A very good question as I was just thinking the > same thing. > > > > > > My understanding is that the rally continues > counting days as long as the > > > intraday low that occurred on the 1ST DAY OF THE > START OF THE RALLY is not > > > violated. I just called IBD and talked to > someone named Mike who concurred > > > with this thinking...What was interesting from > my conversation with Mike > > was > > > when the rally started...I had thought that the > 1ST day occurred on 4/4 > > when > > > we had that deep low of 3649.11 and that strong > retracement to close at > > > 4148.89. IBD (Mike) said the 1ST day of the > current rally was 4/5 not 4/4 > > > because the start of the rally has to close > higher than the previous day's > > > close. > > > > > > So according to IBD's Mike, today is day 5 of > the current rally attempt > > and > > > the counting continues unless we undercut the > intraday low we had on 4/5 > > of > > > 4009.09. > > > > > > What do others think? > > > > > > Ziggy > > > > > > Alexander T wrote: > > > > > > > Hi, > > > > > > > > After the first day of rally we start counting > days until we see a > > follow > > > > through. Now, does anyone remember what > resets these days? > > > > > > > > 1. Market undercutting previous intraday low > during the day, but closing > > > > above that previous intraday low, or > > > > 2. Market CLOSING below previous intraday low > > > > > > > > I am actually asking because I think in > today's investor's corner IBD > > used > > > > #2, and I thought it was #1. > > > > > > > > Thanks ! > > > > > > > > - > > > - > > __________________________________________________ Do You Yahoo!? Send online invitations with Yahoo! Invites. http://invites.yahoo.com - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Matt Robinson" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Follow through's Date: 12 Apr 2000 08:45:53 -0400 I agree completely with that. I'll try to make it short. First, I think that even when WON's ideas were formulated by using so much time discussing precise symantics you are taking away from other things that you could be doing to help determine direction. Looking at follow through day's, like any other type of sign/indicator, was no guarantee that it would happen. I use past tense, because I feel that trying to get it EXACTLY right now is even less applicable now, as volatility is much greater now as opposed to when these ideas were formulated. What else could you do perhaps? Well, continue to watch some of the past/current/present leaders. Analyze where money is flowing by looking at sectors, like NYSE drug stocks. While I say this, I agree with Tom that you might not want to follow it as money will often "jump" around quickly. But, sometimes, the best course of action is to simply wait. Which, it appears most people are doing, but don't try to find things that aren't there. Perhaps, one should wait for events that will possibly be the influence to give the Naz direction one way or another, such as the all important CPI. Or, wait to see if tech stock earnings are as great as many speculate they are going to be. Not that I am saying people have been saying the contrary, but.............it is often better getting on the correct side of a move too late, then risking getting in on the wrong side of a move a little early. Regards Matt By the way, I wrote this 8:40 am. For some reason, my emails have been coming like 6 hours after I send them.........if it still does Ill have to look into it. ----- Original Message ----- Sent: Wednesday, April 12, 2000 8:03 AM > Hi Luke, > > Since I am not at all familiar with Quotes Plus, I cannot comment > on the notations. > > But one thing I think we are frequently guilty of is ignoring > that there is only one marketplace in the USA. Since lately, the > Naz and NYSE have acted like they are two totally separate > markets, it's easy to focus on only one. But I think that misses > the bigger picture, in which money is simply switching from one > to the other to concentrate on a particular sector. Right now, > money has been flowing out of techs and into "old economy". We've > seen this before, and we've also seen it switch back just as > fast. > > I don't recall anything from WON on how closely a follow thru day > must occur on both exchanges, anyone can help here? > > But I think you could evaluate follow thru by exchange, while > recognizing that there is incredible linkage between the two. > > Tom Worley > stkguru@netside.net > chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 > get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html > > > ----- Original Message ----- > From: Luke Lang > To: > Sent: Wednesday, April 12, 2000 2:11 AM > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Follow through's > > > It seems to me that we should be able to quantify what > constitutes a follow through day and write a scan for > charting programs to identify it. I will take the > first stab at it. Please correct me if I'm wrong. > > I will use QP2's notation. Close(0) and Vol(0) are > today's closing price and volume. Close(-1) and > Vol(-1) are yesterday's close and volume. > > A follow through day is identified if all of the > following conditions are met: > 1) Close(0) >= 1.01 * Close(-1) => closing up by 1% > 2) Vol(0) > Vol(-1) => on higher volume > For i = 3 to 10, > 3) Close(-i) >= 1.01 * Close(-i-1) => first rally > attempt 3 to 10 days ago > 4) Vol(-i) > Vol(-i-1) => on higher volume > > Conditions 3) and 4) only have to be met for one day > between 3 and 10 days ago. > > Are there any other conditions that one should add? > Thanks. > > Best regards, > Luke Lang > > --- wroblewski@uswest.net wrote: > > Hi Walt, > > > > You are right...a rally is not confirmed until a > > valid Follow-thru day > > occurs...but a rally attempt starts when it starts > > and then you start counting > > looking for a follow-thru. There are many false > > rallies that fail to provide a > > valid follow-thru day as well as some rallies that > > do have a valid F/T day and > > subsequently prove to be false also. The current > > rally (or attempted rally if > > you prefer) has not had a valid follow-thru day and > > as such I am not invested. > > > > WON defines "a rally as an attempt by a stock or the > > general market to turn up > > and advance in price after a period of decline". He > > further states that > > "eventually one of the rallies will > > 'follow-through' ". So a rally is an > > attempt at changing direction from a downtrend...it > > may or may not be successful > > but it is still a rally. > > > > What I was trying to bring up for discussion is what > > does constitute day 1 of a > > rally attempt. > > > > Best regards, > > > > Ziggy > > > > walter nusbaum wrote: > > > > > ----- Original Message ----- > > > From: > > > To: > > > Sent: Tuesday, April 11, 2000 11:07 AM > > > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Follow through's > > > > > > Ziggy & Alexander, > > > Well, I'm sorry but I don't see a rally of any > > kind. 4 APR was the low on > > > very heavy volume. It is my understanding that a > > follow through day(FT) is > > > required to confirm a rally. There has not been a > > day since, when the market > > > was up from the previous day on *greater* volume > > than the day before, which > > > defines a FT. No? > > > Best wishes, > > > Walt > > > > > > > Hi Alexander, > > > > > > > > A very good question as I was just thinking the > > same thing. > > > > > > > > My understanding is that the rally continues > > counting days as long as the > > > > intraday low that occurred on the 1ST DAY OF THE > > START OF THE RALLY is not > > > > violated. I just called IBD and talked to > > someone named Mike who concurred > > > > with this thinking...What was interesting from > > my conversation with Mike > > > was > > > > when the rally started...I had thought that the > > 1ST day occurred on 4/4 > > > when > > > > we had that deep low of 3649.11 and that strong > > retracement to close at > > > > 4148.89. IBD (Mike) said the 1ST day of the > > current rally was 4/5 not 4/4 > > > > because the start of the rally has to close > > higher than the previous day's > > > > close. > > > > > > > > So according to IBD's Mike, today is day 5 of > > the current rally attempt > > > and > > > > the counting continues unless we undercut the > > intraday low we had on 4/5 > > > of > > > > 4009.09. > > > > > > > > What do others think? > > > > > > > > Ziggy > > > > > > > > Alexander T wrote: > > > > > > > > > Hi, > > > > > > > > > > After the first day of rally we start counting > > days until we see a > > > follow > > > > > through. Now, does anyone remember what > > resets these days? > > > > > > > > > > 1. Market undercutting previous intraday low > > during the day, but closing > > > > > above that previous intraday low, or > > > > > 2. Market CLOSING below previous intraday low > > > > > > > > > > I am actually asking because I think in > > today's investor's corner IBD > > > used > > > > > #2, and I thought it was #1. > > > > > > > > > > Thanks ! > > > > > > > > > > > - > > > > > > - > > > > > > __________________________________________________ > Do You Yahoo!? > Send online invitations with Yahoo! Invites. > http://invites.yahoo.com > > - > > > > - > __________________________________________________ Do You Yahoo!? Talk to your friends online with Yahoo! Messenger. http://im.yahoo.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: rolatzi Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Follow through's Date: 12 Apr 2000 06:00:43 -0700 (PDT) --- Luke Lang wrote: > It seems to me that we should be able to quantify what > constitutes a follow through day and write a scan for > charting programs to identify it. I will take the > first stab at it. Please correct me if I'm wrong. > > I will use QP2's notation. Close(0) and Vol(0) are > today's closing price and volume. Close(-1) and > Vol(-1) are yesterday's close and volume. > > A follow through day is identified if all of the > following conditions are met: > 1) Close(0) >= 1.01 * Close(-1) => closing up by 1% > 2) Vol(0) > Vol(-1) => on higher volume > For i = 3 to 10, > 3) Close(-i) >= 1.01 * Close(-i-1) => first rally > attempt 3 to 10 days ago > 4) Vol(-i) > Vol(-i-1) => on higher volume > > Conditions 3) and 4) only have to be met for one day > between 3 and 10 days ago. I believe that another condition is that the close is more than 1% up from the low of that day on greater volume. Also you need to scan back and ascertain that the low on day i was the lowest point reached for a while (I'm not sure what a while is). I have a scan which I use and would happy to share it with you. It also finds distribution days, defined as reversal: if (open(i)>close(i-1) or high(i)>high(i-1)) and close(i)<=close(i-1) and vol(i)>vol(i-1) then and compression days: else if vol(i)>vol(i-1) and Close(i)<=Close(i-1) then I will post below the last two weeks of the scan: !DJ30,03/07/2000,10208.70,9650.84,9796.03,328.11,-160.56,Bottom, Previous,05/21/1999 !DJ30,03/08/2000,10037.40,9611.75,9856.53,259.23,-166.90 !DJ30,03/09/2000,10097.30,9667.28,10010.70,212.92,-169.72 !DJ30,03/10/2000,10211.80,9792.93,9928.82,224.99,-173.27,Reversal !DJ30,03/13/2000,10111.30,9670.07,9947.13,215.98,-175.80 !DJ30,03/14/2000,10149.40,9744.84,9811.24,211.74,-179.96 !DJ30,03/15/2000,10294.60,9676.90,10131.40,238.37,-177.96,FollowThru !DJ30,03/16/2000,10716.20,10142.30,10630.60,293.38,-167.34,FollowThru !DJ30,03/17/2000,10849.60,10399.20,10595.20,274.73,-157.86 !DJ30,03/20/2000,10866.10,10456.90,10680.20,202.28,-147.41 !DJ30,03/21/2000,11017.50,10516.10,10907.30,239.89,-133.73,Up 1% wVol !DJ30,03/22/2000,11054.70,10671.90,10866.70,195.83,-121.61 !DJ30,03/23/2000,11224.70,10738.30,11119.90,250.33,-106.04,Up 1% wVol !DJ30,03/24/2000,11311.30,10901.40,11112.70,245.32,-91.70 !DJ30,03/27/2000,11275.00,10881.00,11025.80,208.93,-79.87 !DJ30,03/28/2000,11192.80,10804.70,10936.10,200.31,-70.40 !DJ30,03/29/2000,11214.50,10793.80,11018.70,223.92,-60.20 !DJ30,03/30/2000,11258.20,10796.60,10980.30,239.25,-51.41,Reversal !DJ30,03/31/2000,11244.60,10801.20,10921.90,198.00,-44.24 !DJ30,04/03/2000,11345.40,10816.80,11221.90,305.75,-32.58,Up 1% wVol !DJ30,04/04/2000,11541.20,10677.80,11164.80,357.99,-22.82,Reversal !DJ30,04/05/2000,11326.80,10894.00,11033.90,208.44,-16.06 !DJ30,04/06/2000,11303.80,10921.10,11114.30,181.44, -8.51 !DJ30,04/07/2000,11318.40,10932.80,11111.50,177.57, -1.66 !DJ30,04/10/2000,11404.30,10954.20,11186.60,170.53, 5.85 !DJ30,04/11/2000,11459.60,10989.50,11287.10,190.13, 14.36 !COMP,03/07/2000,5006.78,4829.88,4847.84, 2.15, 85.74,Reversal !COMP,03/08/2000,4923.14,4722.14,4897.17, 2.01, 87.12 !COMP,03/09/2000,5047.96,4857.57,5046.86, 2.00, 90.48 !COMP,03/10/2000,5132.52,5039.35,5048.62, 2.00, 93.16 !COMP,03/13/2000,5027.73,4839.26,4907.24, 1.74, 92.80 !COMP,03/14/2000,5013.49,4706.61,4706.63, 1.99, 88.69,Reversal !COMP,03/15/2000,4758.44,4553.92,4582.68, 1.94, 82.44 !COMP,03/16/2000,4717.76,4455.10,4717.39, 2.05, 78.60 !COMP,03/17/2000,4805.94,4702.03,4798.13, 1.69, 76.07 !COMP,03/20/2000,4822.70,4610.00,4610.00, 1.54, 70.21 !COMP,03/21/2000,4712.24,4467.53,4711.68, 1.76, 66.20 !COMP,03/22/2000,4900.42,4736.90,4864.75, 1.78, 64.74 !COMP,03/23/2000,4975.66,4864.75,4940.61, 1.71, 64.31 !COMP,03/24/2000,5078.86,4902.83,4963.03, 1.69, 63.93 !COMP,03/27/2000,5022.23,4946.61,4958.56, 1.38, 63.15 !COMP,03/28/2000,4952.93,4833.89,4833.89, 1.49, 59.97,Compress !COMP,03/29/2000,4860.02,4641.01,4644.67, 1.74, 53.55,Reversal !COMP,03/30/2000,4683.88,4355.69,4457.89, 1.92, 44.22,Compress !COMP,03/31/2000,4606.48,4381.38,4572.83, 2.12, 37.32 !COMP,04/03/2000,4572.84,4193.10,4223.68, 1.74, 24.89 !COMP,04/04/2000,4283.45,3649.11,4148.89, 2.88, 12.03,Bottom, Previous,01/19/2000 !COMP,04/05/2000,4286.88,4009.09,4169.22, 1.94, 0.41 !COMP,04/06/2000,4324.09,4196.51,4267.56, 1.75, -8.74 !COMP,04/07/2000,4446.45,4323.18,4446.45, 1.56,-14.27 !COMP,04/10/2000,4475.20,4188.17,4188.20, 1.44,-23.80 !COMP,04/11/2000,4182.96,4009.52,4055.90, 1.69,-34.86,Bottom, Previous,12/31/1999 The data is: Index, date, hi, lo, close, volume, MACD, indication. I think the scan works pretty well but would appreciated an critique you may want to give on it. Ciao, rolatzi > > Are there any other conditions that one should add? > Thanks. > > Best regards, > Luke Lang > > --- wroblewski@uswest.net wrote: > > Hi Walt, > > > > You are right...a rally is not confirmed until a > > valid Follow-thru day > > occurs...but a rally attempt starts when it starts > > and then you start counting > > looking for a follow-thru. There are many false > > rallies that fail to provide a > > valid follow-thru day as well as some rallies that > > do have a valid F/T day and > > subsequently prove to be false also. The current > > rally (or attempted rally if > > you prefer) has not had a valid follow-thru day and > > as such I am not invested. > > > > WON defines "a rally as an attempt by a stock or the > > general market to turn up > > and advance in price after a period of decline". He > > further states that > > "eventually one of the rallies will > > 'follow-through' ". So a rally is an > > attempt at changing direction from a downtrend...it > > may or may not be successful > > but it is still a rally. > > > > What I was trying to bring up for discussion is what > > does constitute day 1 of a > > rally attempt. > > > > Best regards, > > > > Ziggy > > > > walter nusbaum wrote: > > > > > ----- Original Message ----- > > > From: > > > To: > > > Sent: Tuesday, April 11, 2000 11:07 AM > > > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Follow through's > > > > > > Ziggy & Alexander, > > > Well, I'm sorry but I don't see a rally of any > > kind. 4 APR was the low on > > > very heavy volume. It is my understanding that a > > follow through day(FT) is > > > required to confirm a rally. There has not been a > > day since, when the market > > > was up from the previous day on *greater* volume > > than the day before, which > > > defines a FT. No? > > > Best wishes, > > > Walt > > > > > > > Hi Alexander, > > > > > > > > A very good question as I was just thinking the > > same thing. > > > > > > > > My understanding is that the rally continues > > counting days as long as the > > > > intraday low that occurred on the 1ST DAY OF THE > > START OF THE RALLY is not > > > > violated. I just called IBD and talked to > > someone named Mike who concurred > > > > with this thinking...What was interesting from > > my conversation with Mike > > > was > > > > when the rally started...I had thought that the > > 1ST day occurred on 4/4 > > > when > > > > we had that deep low of 3649.11 and that strong > > retracement to close at > > > > 4148.89. IBD (Mike) said the 1ST day of the > > current rally was 4/5 not 4/4 > > > > because the start of the rally has to close > > higher than the previous day's > > > > close. > > > > > > > > So according to IBD's Mike, today is day 5 of > > the current rally attempt > > > and > > > > the counting continues unless we undercut the > > intraday low we had on 4/5 > > > of > > > > 4009.09. > > > > > > > > What do others think? > > > > > > > > Ziggy > > > > > > > > Alexander T wrote: > > > > > > > > > Hi, > > > > > > > > > > After the first day of rally we start counting > > days until we see a > > > follow > > > > > through. Now, does anyone remember what > > resets these days? > > > > > > > > > > 1. Market undercutting previous intraday low > > during the day, but closing > > > > > above that previous intraday low, or > > > > > 2. Market CLOSING below previous intraday low > > > > > > > > > > I am actually asking because I think in > > today's investor's corner IBD > > > used > > > > > #2, and I thought it was #1. > > > > > > > > > > Thanks ! > > > > > > > > > > > - > > > > > > - > > > > > > __________________________________________________ > Do You Yahoo!? > Send online invitations with Yahoo! Invites. > http://invites.yahoo.com > > - > > __________________________________________________ Do You Yahoo!? Send online invitations with Yahoo! Invites. http://invites.yahoo.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: musicant@pacbell.net (Dan Musicant) Subject: [CANSLIM] IRS Wash Rule question Date: 12 Apr 2000 13:39:31 +0000 (GMT) Here's what I think is a *really good question*: I have always done my own taxes, but this year I gave in. Well, a little. I was advised to get myself a tax preparer, and nearly did so. I called the person, did a phone interview, but declined to go through the in-person interview, filling out forms, and sending them in, etc. Instead I went a 3rd way: TurboTax. That was pretty OK, but it won't print out my Schedule D. It complains about a font, and breaks down while printing. So, I guess I will file online, or else have to copy everything from screen to form... a drag, of course. To get to the question: I was a very active trader in 1999. In fact, I had 52 separate buys and sells. There was one stock in particular that I bought and sold many many times. At the end of the year I was 100% in cash. *IF* I had bought my *fave* stock in January 2000, the wash rule would have affected my taxes. But since I did not, it appears to me to be a total waste of time and energy, and a royal pain in the ass to have to calculate all my wash sales. As I did my return, I just had them all normal sales, not wash sales. But I'm pretty sure, that according to the *letter of the law*, several if not many were wash sales. I traded different amounts of the stock (that fave stock) at different times. Should I go to the trouble of doing all the calculations? It's pretty obvious to me, and would be to an IRS auditor that there *should* be no need to go through these hoops. But will they see it that way?=20 Or have I misinterpreted the Wash Rule?? Thanks for your answer. Dan - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Wahl, Patrick" Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] Follow through's Date: 12 Apr 2000 08:30:31 -0600 I thought volume was supposed to be > average volume over some period, not just greater than the previous day's volume, although my memory could be faulty on this. > -----Original Message----- > From: Luke Lang [mailto:lukelang@yahoo.com] > Sent: Wednesday, April 12, 2000 12:12 AM > To: canslim@lists.xmission.com > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Follow through's > > > It seems to me that we should be able to quantify what > constitutes a follow through day and write a scan for > charting programs to identify it. I will take the > first stab at it. Please correct me if I'm wrong. > > I will use QP2's notation. Close(0) and Vol(0) are > today's closing price and volume. Close(-1) and > Vol(-1) are yesterday's close and volume. > > A follow through day is identified if all of the > following conditions are met: > 1) Close(0) >= 1.01 * Close(-1) => closing up by 1% > 2) Vol(0) > Vol(-1) => on higher volume > For i = 3 to 10, > 3) Close(-i) >= 1.01 * Close(-i-1) => first rally > attempt 3 to 10 days ago > 4) Vol(-i) > Vol(-i-1) => on higher volume > > Conditions 3) and 4) only have to be met for one day > between 3 and 10 days ago. > > Are there any other conditions that one should add? > Thanks. > > Best regards, > Luke Lang > > --- wroblewski@uswest.net wrote: > > Hi Walt, > > > > You are right...a rally is not confirmed until a > > valid Follow-thru day > > occurs...but a rally attempt starts when it starts > > and then you start counting > > looking for a follow-thru. There are many false > > rallies that fail to provide a > > valid follow-thru day as well as some rallies that > > do have a valid F/T day and > > subsequently prove to be false also. The current > > rally (or attempted rally if > > you prefer) has not had a valid follow-thru day and > > as such I am not invested. > > > > WON defines "a rally as an attempt by a stock or the > > general market to turn up > > and advance in price after a period of decline". He > > further states that > > "eventually one of the rallies will > > 'follow-through' ". So a rally is an > > attempt at changing direction from a downtrend...it > > may or may not be successful > > but it is still a rally. > > > > What I was trying to bring up for discussion is what > > does constitute day 1 of a > > rally attempt. > > > > Best regards, > > > > Ziggy > > > > walter nusbaum wrote: > > > > > ----- Original Message ----- > > > From: > > > To: > > > Sent: Tuesday, April 11, 2000 11:07 AM > > > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Follow through's > > > > > > Ziggy & Alexander, > > > Well, I'm sorry but I don't see a rally of any > > kind. 4 APR was the low on > > > very heavy volume. It is my understanding that a > > follow through day(FT) is > > > required to confirm a rally. There has not been a > > day since, when the market > > > was up from the previous day on *greater* volume > > than the day before, which > > > defines a FT. No? > > > Best wishes, > > > Walt > > > > > > > Hi Alexander, > > > > > > > > A very good question as I was just thinking the > > same thing. > > > > > > > > My understanding is that the rally continues > > counting days as long as the > > > > intraday low that occurred on the 1ST DAY OF THE > > START OF THE RALLY is not > > > > violated. I just called IBD and talked to > > someone named Mike who concurred > > > > with this thinking...What was interesting from > > my conversation with Mike > > > was > > > > when the rally started...I had thought that the > > 1ST day occurred on 4/4 > > > when > > > > we had that deep low of 3649.11 and that strong > > retracement to close at > > > > 4148.89. IBD (Mike) said the 1ST day of the > > current rally was 4/5 not 4/4 > > > > because the start of the rally has to close > > higher than the previous day's > > > > close. > > > > > > > > So according to IBD's Mike, today is day 5 of > > the current rally attempt > > > and > > > > the counting continues unless we undercut the > > intraday low we had on 4/5 > > > of > > > > 4009.09. > > > > > > > > What do others think? > > > > > > > > Ziggy > > > > > > > > Alexander T wrote: > > > > > > > > > Hi, > > > > > > > > > > After the first day of rally we start counting > > days until we see a > > > follow > > > > > through. Now, does anyone remember what > > resets these days? > > > > > > > > > > 1. Market undercutting previous intraday low > > during the day, but closing > > > > > above that previous intraday low, or > > > > > 2. Market CLOSING below previous intraday low > > > > > > > > > > I am actually asking because I think in > > today's investor's corner IBD > > > used > > > > > #2, and I thought it was #1. > > > > > > > > > > Thanks ! > > > > > > > > > > > - > > > > > > - > > > > > > __________________________________________________ > Do You Yahoo!? > Send online invitations with Yahoo! Invites. > http://invites.yahoo.com > > - > - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: han.26@osu.edu Subject: [CANSLIM] Definition of a bear market Date: 12 Apr 2000 12:22:48 -0700 If I'm not mistaken, the NASDAQ is into a bear market--off more than 20%...closer to 30% actually. Also, WON says that many bear markets have 3 down legs with small rallies in between. It is possible that we still have two more down legs to go. Also, he says that most bear markets last 6 months to 2 years. True, these are averages and the Dow is no longer in a bear market, but it could also get worse before it gets better, and that could be soon or a long time away. Despite holding onto two NAZ stocks that have held up relatively well compared to the NAZ itself, these stocks are now approaching my original buy points--a sign to sell according to HTMMIS. Jim--- - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Pritish Shah Subject: [CANSLIM] Money flow in the market Date: 12 Apr 2000 11:01:32 -0700 (PDT) Hi, I was wondering if there is any way to measure money flow into the market at the end of each day. I think that would be a better guage of bull/bear than anything else. I was thinking along the line of adding up the market cap of all the exchange traded companies and figuring out if the money is flowing in our out. Does that make sense? This could be extended a bit by finding out where the money is flowing? I am pretty sure that someone has already thought of this but I do not know if the information is accessible or where is it accessible from Regards, Pritish - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "walter nusbaum" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Money flow in the market Date: 12 Apr 2000 13:35:17 -0500 ----- Original Message ----- Sent: Wednesday, April 12, 2000 1:01 PM > > Hi, (Snip) > I am pretty sure that someone has already thought of this but I do not > know if the information is accessible or where is it accessible from > > Regards, > Pritish Pritish, For a mere $24,000.00/yr, you can have this information from: http://www.trimtabs.com This firm's findings are often referenced in IBD and other similar pubs. If you click around this site, you will find some free, stale(1-2 weeks old) data that may still be of some use. Best wishes, Walt - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: rolatzi Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Money flow in the market Date: 12 Apr 2000 12:40:39 -0700 (PDT) There is an analyst, I can't remember who, maybe Acompura or Trader Vic, who looks at money flow on a stock by stock basis, that is, each for transaction of a stock, they calculate how much money has gone in or out of the market value (multiply the tic by the number of shares), summed over the course of the trading day. They claim that keeping track of the money flow like this is the best way to determine the future stock's performance. I'm sure it costs mucho bucks for such a service, and I don't know the duration of the trades they execute based on this data. ciao, rolatzi --- Pritish Shah wrote: > > Hi, > > I was wondering if there is any way to measure money flow > into the market > at the end of each day. I think that would be a better > guage of bull/bear > than anything else. > > I was thinking along the line of adding up the market cap > of all the > exchange traded companies and figuring out if the money > is flowing in our > out. > > Does that make sense? This could be extended a bit by > finding out where > the money is flowing? > > I am pretty sure that someone has already thought of this > but I do not > know if the information is accessible or where is it > accessible from > > Regards, > Pritish > > > - > > __________________________________________________ Do You Yahoo!? Send online invitations with Yahoo! Invites. http://invites.yahoo.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Wahl, Patrick" Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] Money flow in the market Date: 12 Apr 2000 14:08:11 -0600 Laszlo Biryni I think (and I know I misspelled that name). When I read about it a few years ago, it sounded like a pretty sophisticated method. > -----Original Message----- > From: rolatzi [mailto:rolatzi@yahoo.com] > Sent: Wednesday, April 12, 2000 1:41 PM > To: canslim@lists.xmission.com > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Money flow in the market > > > There is an analyst, I can't remember who, maybe Acompura > or Trader Vic, who looks at money flow on a stock by stock > basis, that is, each for transaction of a stock, they > calculate how much money has gone in or out of the market > value (multiply the tic by the number of shares), summed > over the course of the trading day. They claim that > keeping track of the money flow like this is the best way > to determine the future stock's performance. I'm sure it > costs mucho bucks for such a service, and I don't know the > duration of the trades they execute based on this data. > ciao, > rolatzi > > --- Pritish Shah wrote: > > > > Hi, > > > > I was wondering if there is any way to measure money flow > > into the market > > at the end of each day. I think that would be a better > > guage of bull/bear > > than anything else. > > > > I was thinking along the line of adding up the market cap > > of all the > > exchange traded companies and figuring out if the money > > is flowing in our > > out. > > > > Does that make sense? This could be extended a bit by > > finding out where > > the money is flowing? > > > > I am pretty sure that someone has already thought of this > > but I do not > > know if the information is accessible or where is it > > accessible from > > > > Regards, > > Pritish > > > > > > - > > > > > > __________________________________________________ > Do You Yahoo!? > Send online invitations with Yahoo! Invites. > http://invites.yahoo.com > > - > - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: rolatzi Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] Money flow in the market Date: 12 Apr 2000 13:42:42 -0700 (PDT) Patrick, You are right. It is Biryni, and how has he done? --- "Wahl, Patrick" wrote: > Laszlo Biryni I think (and I know I misspelled that > name). When I read > about it a few years ago, it sounded like a pretty > sophisticated method. > > > -----Original Message----- > > From: rolatzi [mailto:rolatzi@yahoo.com] > > Sent: Wednesday, April 12, 2000 1:41 PM > > To: canslim@lists.xmission.com > > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Money flow in the market > > > > > > There is an analyst, I can't remember who, maybe > Acompura > > or Trader Vic, who looks at money flow on a stock by > stock > > basis, that is, each for transaction of a stock, they > > calculate how much money has gone in or out of the > market > > value (multiply the tic by the number of shares), > summed > > over the course of the trading day. They claim that > > keeping track of the money flow like this is the best > way > > to determine the future stock's performance. I'm sure > it > > costs mucho bucks for such a service, and I don't know > the > > duration of the trades they execute based on this data. > > ciao, > > rolatzi > > > > --- Pritish Shah wrote: > > > > > > Hi, > > > > > > I was wondering if there is any way to measure money > flow > > > into the market > > > at the end of each day. I think that would be a > better > > > guage of bull/bear > > > than anything else. > > > > > > I was thinking along the line of adding up the market > cap > > > of all the > > > exchange traded companies and figuring out if the > money > > > is flowing in our > > > out. > > > > > > Does that make sense? This could be extended a bit by > > > finding out where > > > the money is flowing? > > > > > > I am pretty sure that someone has already thought of > this > > > but I do not > > > know if the information is accessible or where is it > > > accessible from > > > > > > Regards, > > > Pritish > > > > > > > > > - > > > > > > > > > > __________________________________________________ > > Do You Yahoo!? > > Send online invitations with Yahoo! Invites. > > http://invites.yahoo.com > > > > - > > > > - > > __________________________________________________ Do You Yahoo!? Send online invitations with Yahoo! Invites. http://invites.yahoo.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Earl Setser Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Follow through's Date: 12 Apr 2000 17:12:38 -0600 I think WON asks for a follow-through day to be on "Significantly Higher Volume". If I'm right, you may want to look for an increase of 10%, or 20% or something. Also, you haven't considered the market in between the beginning of the rally and the FT day. In cases like today (a new low or maybe a new intraday low), then you should probably reset the screen and not keep looking. At 11:11 PM 4/11/00 -0700, you wrote: >It seems to me that we should be able to quantify what >constitutes a follow through day and write a scan for >charting programs to identify it. I will take the >first stab at it. Please correct me if I'm wrong. > >I will use QP2's notation. Close(0) and Vol(0) are >today's closing price and volume. Close(-1) and >Vol(-1) are yesterday's close and volume. > >A follow through day is identified if all of the >following conditions are met: >1) Close(0) >= 1.01 * Close(-1) => closing up by 1% >2) Vol(0) > Vol(-1) => on higher volume >For i = 3 to 10, >3) Close(-i) >= 1.01 * Close(-i-1) => first rally >attempt 3 to 10 days ago >4) Vol(-i) > Vol(-i-1) => on higher volume > >Conditions 3) and 4) only have to be met for one day >between 3 and 10 days ago. > >Are there any other conditions that one should add? >Thanks. > >Best regards, >Luke Lang > >--- wroblewski@uswest.net wrote: >> Hi Walt, >> >> You are right...a rally is not confirmed until a >> valid Follow-thru day >> occurs...but a rally attempt starts when it starts >> and then you start counting >> looking for a follow-thru. There are many false >> rallies that fail to provide a >> valid follow-thru day as well as some rallies that >> do have a valid F/T day and >> subsequently prove to be false also. The current >> rally (or attempted rally if >> you prefer) has not had a valid follow-thru day and >> as such I am not invested. >> >> WON defines "a rally as an attempt by a stock or the >> general market to turn up >> and advance in price after a period of decline". He >> further states that >> "eventually one of the rallies will >> 'follow-through' ". So a rally is an >> attempt at changing direction from a downtrend...it >> may or may not be successful >> but it is still a rally. >> >> What I was trying to bring up for discussion is what >> does constitute day 1 of a >> rally attempt. >> >> Best regards, >> >> Ziggy >> >> walter nusbaum wrote: >> >> > ----- Original Message ----- >> > From: >> > To: >> > Sent: Tuesday, April 11, 2000 11:07 AM >> > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Follow through's >> > >> > Ziggy & Alexander, >> > Well, I'm sorry but I don't see a rally of any >> kind. 4 APR was the low on >> > very heavy volume. It is my understanding that a >> follow through day(FT) is >> > required to confirm a rally. There has not been a >> day since, when the market >> > was up from the previous day on *greater* volume >> than the day before, which >> > defines a FT. No? >> > Best wishes, >> > Walt >> > >> > > Hi Alexander, >> > > >> > > A very good question as I was just thinking the >> same thing. >> > > >> > > My understanding is that the rally continues >> counting days as long as the >> > > intraday low that occurred on the 1ST DAY OF THE >> START OF THE RALLY is not >> > > violated. I just called IBD and talked to >> someone named Mike who concurred >> > > with this thinking...What was interesting from >> my conversation with Mike >> > was >> > > when the rally started...I had thought that the >> 1ST day occurred on 4/4 >> > when >> > > we had that deep low of 3649.11 and that strong >> retracement to close at >> > > 4148.89. IBD (Mike) said the 1ST day of the >> current rally was 4/5 not 4/4 >> > > because the start of the rally has to close >> higher than the previous day's >> > > close. >> > > >> > > So according to IBD's Mike, today is day 5 of >> the current rally attempt >> > and >> > > the counting continues unless we undercut the >> intraday low we had on 4/5 >> > of >> > > 4009.09. >> > > >> > > What do others think? >> > > >> > > Ziggy >> > > >> > > Alexander T wrote: >> > > >> > > > Hi, >> > > > >> > > > After the first day of rally we start counting >> days until we see a >> > follow >> > > > through. Now, does anyone remember what >> resets these days? >> > > > >> > > > 1. Market undercutting previous intraday low >> during the day, but closing >> > > > above that previous intraday low, or >> > > > 2. Market CLOSING below previous intraday low >> > > > >> > > > I am actually asking because I think in >> today's investor's corner IBD >> > used >> > > > #2, and I thought it was #1. >> > > > >> > > > Thanks ! >> > > > >> > >> > - >> >> >> - >> >> > >__________________________________________________ >Do You Yahoo!? >Send online invitations with Yahoo! Invites. >http://invites.yahoo.com > >- > > > - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Follow through's Date: 12 Apr 2000 17:10:22 -0700 Your right Earl, the screen has been reset and we have to be patient and wait for the next rally attempt to start counting again. Ziggy Earl Setser wrote: > I think WON asks for a follow-through day to be on "Significantly Higher > Volume". If I'm right, you may want to look for an increase of 10%, or 20% > or something. Also, you haven't considered the market in between the > beginning of the rally and the FT day. In cases like today (a new low or > maybe a new intraday low), then you should probably reset the screen and > not keep looking. > > At 11:11 PM 4/11/00 -0700, you wrote: > >It seems to me that we should be able to quantify what > >constitutes a follow through day and write a scan for > >charting programs to identify it. I will take the > >first stab at it. Please correct me if I'm wrong. > > > >I will use QP2's notation. Close(0) and Vol(0) are > >today's closing price and volume. Close(-1) and > >Vol(-1) are yesterday's close and volume. > > > >A follow through day is identified if all of the > >following conditions are met: > >1) Close(0) >= 1.01 * Close(-1) => closing up by 1% > >2) Vol(0) > Vol(-1) => on higher volume > >For i = 3 to 10, > >3) Close(-i) >= 1.01 * Close(-i-1) => first rally > >attempt 3 to 10 days ago > >4) Vol(-i) > Vol(-i-1) => on higher volume > > > >Conditions 3) and 4) only have to be met for one day > >between 3 and 10 days ago. > > > >Are there any other conditions that one should add? > >Thanks. > > > >Best regards, > >Luke Lang > > > >--- wroblewski@uswest.net wrote: > >> Hi Walt, > >> > >> You are right...a rally is not confirmed until a > >> valid Follow-thru day > >> occurs...but a rally attempt starts when it starts > >> and then you start counting > >> looking for a follow-thru. There are many false > >> rallies that fail to provide a > >> valid follow-thru day as well as some rallies that > >> do have a valid F/T day and > >> subsequently prove to be false also. The current > >> rally (or attempted rally if > >> you prefer) has not had a valid follow-thru day and > >> as such I am not invested. > >> > >> WON defines "a rally as an attempt by a stock or the > >> general market to turn up > >> and advance in price after a period of decline". He > >> further states that > >> "eventually one of the rallies will > >> 'follow-through' ". So a rally is an > >> attempt at changing direction from a downtrend...it > >> may or may not be successful > >> but it is still a rally. > >> > >> What I was trying to bring up for discussion is what > >> does constitute day 1 of a > >> rally attempt. > >> > >> Best regards, > >> > >> Ziggy > >> > >> walter nusbaum wrote: > >> > >> > ----- Original Message ----- > >> > From: > >> > To: > >> > Sent: Tuesday, April 11, 2000 11:07 AM > >> > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Follow through's > >> > > >> > Ziggy & Alexander, > >> > Well, I'm sorry but I don't see a rally of any > >> kind. 4 APR was the low on > >> > very heavy volume. It is my understanding that a > >> follow through day(FT) is > >> > required to confirm a rally. There has not been a > >> day since, when the market > >> > was up from the previous day on *greater* volume > >> than the day before, which > >> > defines a FT. No? > >> > Best wishes, > >> > Walt > >> > > >> > > Hi Alexander, > >> > > > >> > > A very good question as I was just thinking the > >> same thing. > >> > > > >> > > My understanding is that the rally continues > >> counting days as long as the > >> > > intraday low that occurred on the 1ST DAY OF THE > >> START OF THE RALLY is not > >> > > violated. I just called IBD and talked to > >> someone named Mike who concurred > >> > > with this thinking...What was interesting from > >> my conversation with Mike > >> > was > >> > > when the rally started...I had thought that the > >> 1ST day occurred on 4/4 > >> > when > >> > > we had that deep low of 3649.11 and that strong > >> retracement to close at > >> > > 4148.89. IBD (Mike) said the 1ST day of the > >> current rally was 4/5 not 4/4 > >> > > because the start of the rally has to close > >> higher than the previous day's > >> > > close. > >> > > > >> > > So according to IBD's Mike, today is day 5 of > >> the current rally attempt > >> > and > >> > > the counting continues unless we undercut the > >> intraday low we had on 4/5 > >> > of > >> > > 4009.09. > >> > > > >> > > What do others think? > >> > > > >> > > Ziggy > >> > > > >> > > Alexander T wrote: > >> > > > >> > > > Hi, > >> > > > > >> > > > After the first day of rally we start counting > >> days until we see a > >> > follow > >> > > > through. Now, does anyone remember what > >> resets these days? > >> > > > > >> > > > 1. Market undercutting previous intraday low > >> during the day, but closing > >> > > > above that previous intraday low, or > >> > > > 2. Market CLOSING below previous intraday low > >> > > > > >> > > > I am actually asking because I think in > >> today's investor's corner IBD > >> > used > >> > > > #2, and I thought it was #1. > >> > > > > >> > > > Thanks ! > >> > > > > >> > > >> > - > >> > >> > >> - > >> > >> > > > >__________________________________________________ > >Do You Yahoo!? > >Send online invitations with Yahoo! Invites. > >http://invites.yahoo.com > > > >- > > > > > > > > - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Patrick Wahl" Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] Money flow in the market Date: 12 Apr 2000 18:24:46 -0600 On 12 Apr 00, at 13:42, rolatzi wrote: > Patrick, > You are right. It is Biryni, and how has he done? I haven't seen an thing on him lately, but I remember when I originally read about his system, he said he was seeing accumulation in IBM, and that was before it made its recent (year or two ago that is ) move, so I presume he is doing well. I have the idea he is one of the guys who actually does know what he is talking about. - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Luke Lang Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Money flow in the market Date: 12 Apr 2000 18:03:00 -0700 (PDT) I have heard of a variation on this theme. This guy only looks at 10K+ transactions and keeps track of up or down tick to determine where the big money is headed. A few weeks ago, he said big money was going into IBM. This doesn't seem like a difficult task if you have tick-by-tick data. Does anyone know where one can get such data? Best regards, Luke Lang --- rolatzi wrote: > There is an analyst, I can't remember who, maybe > Acompura > or Trader Vic, who looks at money flow on a stock by > stock > basis, that is, each for transaction of a stock, > they > calculate how much money has gone in or out of the > market > value (multiply the tic by the number of shares), > summed > over the course of the trading day. They claim that > keeping track of the money flow like this is the > best way > to determine the future stock's performance. I'm > sure it > costs mucho bucks for such a service, and I don't > know the > duration of the trades they execute based on this > data. > ciao, > rolatzi > > --- Pritish Shah wrote: > > > > Hi, > > > > I was wondering if there is any way to measure > money flow > > into the market > > at the end of each day. I think that would be a > better > > guage of bull/bear > > than anything else. > > > > I was thinking along the line of adding up the > market cap > > of all the > > exchange traded companies and figuring out if the > money > > is flowing in our > > out. > > > > Does that make sense? This could be extended a bit > by > > finding out where > > the money is flowing? > > > > I am pretty sure that someone has already thought > of this > > but I do not > > know if the information is accessible or where is > it > > accessible from > > > > Regards, > > Pritish > > > > > > - > > > > > > __________________________________________________ > Do You Yahoo!? > Send online invitations with Yahoo! Invites. > http://invites.yahoo.com > > - > > __________________________________________________ Do You Yahoo!? Send online invitations with Yahoo! Invites. http://invites.yahoo.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Luke Lang Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Follow through's Date: 12 Apr 2000 18:27:07 -0700 (PDT) Tom & Matt, Thanks for your comments. I fully understand that no indicator can reliably forecast the market. Everything that you say requires a fair amount of work. I would like to get my computer to do as much of the number crunching as possible. Yes, spotting follow through days don't take that much time. But as Tom points out, there are many markets and even more sectors. There is no reason why we can't apply the follow through concept to sector indices. Now, that will take a lot of work by hand. Earl has pointed out that the low on the first rally day should not be violated. Another person said that there should be a big volume increase. (I'm not sure that is required.) All of these can easily be done by the computer so that you can spend your time on research, work, family, etc. Isn't this precisely the productivity gain that has been fueling the market? Best regards, Luke Lang --- Matt Robinson wrote: > I agree completely with that. I'll try to make it > short. First, I think that > even when WON's ideas were formulated by using so > much time discussing > precise symantics you are taking away from other > things that you could be > doing to help determine direction. Looking at follow > through day's, like any > other type of sign/indicator, was no guarantee that > it would happen. I use > past tense, because I feel that trying to get it > EXACTLY right now is even > less applicable now, as volatility is much greater > now as opposed to when > these ideas were formulated. What else could you do > perhaps? Well, continue > to watch some of the past/current/present leaders. > Analyze where money is > flowing by looking at sectors, like NYSE drug > stocks. While I say this, I > agree with Tom that you might not want to follow it > as money will often > "jump" around quickly. > > But, sometimes, the best course of action is to > simply wait. Which, it > appears most people are doing, but don't try to find > things that aren't > there. Perhaps, one should wait for events that will > possibly be the > influence to give the Naz direction one way or > another, such as the all > important CPI. Or, wait to see if tech stock > earnings are as great as many > speculate they are going to be. > > Not that I am saying people have been saying the > contrary, > but.............it is often better getting on the > correct side of a move too > late, then risking getting in on the wrong side of a > move a little early. > > Regards > Matt > > By the way, I wrote this 8:40 am. For some reason, > my emails have been > coming like 6 hours after I send them.........if it > still does Ill have to > look into it. > > > ----- Original Message ----- > From: Tom Worley > To: > Sent: Wednesday, April 12, 2000 8:03 AM > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Follow through's > > > > Hi Luke, > > > > Since I am not at all familiar with Quotes Plus, I > cannot comment > > on the notations. > > > > But one thing I think we are frequently guilty of > is ignoring > > that there is only one marketplace in the USA. > Since lately, the > > Naz and NYSE have acted like they are two totally > separate > > markets, it's easy to focus on only one. But I > think that misses > > the bigger picture, in which money is simply > switching from one > > to the other to concentrate on a particular > sector. Right now, > > money has been flowing out of techs and into "old > economy". We've > > seen this before, and we've also seen it switch > back just as > > fast. > > > > I don't recall anything from WON on how closely a > follow thru day > > must occur on both exchanges, anyone can help > here? > > > > But I think you could evaluate follow thru by > exchange, while > > recognizing that there is incredible linkage > between the two. > > > > Tom Worley > > stkguru@netside.net > > chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 > > get ICQ software at > http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html > > > > > > ----- Original Message ----- > > From: Luke Lang > > To: > > Sent: Wednesday, April 12, 2000 2:11 AM > > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Follow through's > > > > > > It seems to me that we should be able to quantify > what > > constitutes a follow through day and write a scan > for > > charting programs to identify it. I will take the > > first stab at it. Please correct me if I'm wrong. > > > > I will use QP2's notation. Close(0) and Vol(0) > are > > today's closing price and volume. Close(-1) and > > Vol(-1) are yesterday's close and volume. > > > > A follow through day is identified if all of the > > following conditions are met: > > 1) Close(0) >= 1.01 * Close(-1) => closing up by > 1% > > 2) Vol(0) > Vol(-1) => on higher volume > > For i = 3 to 10, > > 3) Close(-i) >= 1.01 * Close(-i-1) => first rally > > attempt 3 to 10 days ago > > 4) Vol(-i) > Vol(-i-1) => on higher volume > > > > Conditions 3) and 4) only have to be met for one > day > > between 3 and 10 days ago. > > > > Are there any other conditions that one should > add? > > Thanks. > > > > Best regards, > > Luke Lang > > > > --- wroblewski@uswest.net wrote: > > > Hi Walt, > > > > > > You are right...a rally is not confirmed until a > > > valid Follow-thru day > > > occurs...but a rally attempt starts when it > starts > > > and then you start counting > > > looking for a follow-thru. There are many false > > > rallies that fail to provide a > > > valid follow-thru day as well as some rallies > that > > > do have a valid F/T day and > > > subsequently prove to be false also. The current > > > rally (or attempted rally if > > > you prefer) has not had a valid follow-thru day > and > > > as such I am not invested. > > > > > > WON defines "a rally as an attempt by a stock or > the > > > general market to turn up > > > and advance in price after a period of decline". > He > > > further states that > > > "eventually one of the rallies will > > > 'follow-through' ". So a rally is an > > > attempt at changing direction from a > downtrend...it > > > may or may not be successful > > > but it is still a rally. > > > > > > What I was trying to bring up for discussion is > what > > > does constitute day 1 of a > > > rally attempt. > > > > > > Best regards, > > > > > > Ziggy > > > > > > walter nusbaum wrote: > > > > > > > ----- Original Message ----- > > > > From: > > > > To: > > > > Sent: Tuesday, April 11, 2000 11:07 AM > > > > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Follow through's > > > > > > > > Ziggy & Alexander, > > > > Well, I'm sorry but I don't see a rally of any > > > kind. 4 APR was the low on > > > > very heavy volume. It is my understanding that > a > > > follow through day(FT) is > > > > required to confirm a rally. There has not > been a > > > day since, when the market > > > > was up from the previous day on *greater* > volume > === message truncated === __________________________________________________ Do You Yahoo!? Send online invitations with Yahoo! Invites. http://invites.yahoo.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Definition of a bear market Date: 12 Apr 2000 21:58:41 -0400 Hi Jim, Working with the "3 legs down in a bear market" scenario, I read Naz's chart a little differently, and more optimistically. Understand also, I have compressed time frames, because that's the way mkts have traded now for several years. Corrections/bear markets that used to take 6-10 months now do it in 6-10 weeks, or even days. I view the first "leg" as from 3/10, when Naz set a new high, to 3/24, when it failed to break that high, and also closed below the close on 3/10. Both were volatile days, but chartwise mark a clear pattern. I read the "leg down" as ending 3/21. The second "leg" I see from 3/24 to 4/7, which includes the record drop, and ends three straight days of gains on the close. The declining volume during these three days shows the suspect nature of this "rally". In this "leg down" into rally pattern, I see the downtrend ending 4/4 with the record swing we had. I see us now on the third "leg down". In an ideal "TA" world, we will gap down tomorrow with an open below 3649 for an opening drop of some 120 pts. That would just undercut the intraday low on 4/4. Then a rally that closes over 4078 (the high intraday today). That would mean a closing gain of some 310 points, and an intraday range of 430 points. Seems impossible, but then the intraday range on 4/4 was about 630 pts, so this would not even be a record. What I see as more likely to occur is that over the next several days to maybe a week, we will decline further then find a new bottom. I would not be a buyer generally (tho likely will be personally as I am a risk taker) until Naz can claw its way back over 4475 minimum, and preferably higher, thus putting it over the high point of this current leg down into, hopefully, a rally. It would also put it above the low intraday point of the bottom of the first leg down into rally cycle. The Naz is right now at a crucial point of its support range, and closed right at the lower end of that. If it breaks substantially lower still, next support doesn't exist until 2800, and I don't want to think about that bloodbath. But then again, maybe some of these tech blue chips will be in my budget by then? The best scenario I see is a sharp drop on the open, followed by a swift rally. The worst scenario I see is a gradual further decline. But either way will eventually lead to a lot of sidelined cash coming in on the best stocks with the greatest expectations for earnings growth in the future. The key now is to identify those stocks. And, of course, there's no guarantee that there won't be a fourth, or fifth, leg down. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html ----- Original Message ----- Sent: Wednesday, April 12, 2000 3:22 PM If I'm not mistaken, the NASDAQ is into a bear market--off more than 20%...closer to 30% actually. Also, WON says that many bear markets have 3 down legs with small rallies in between. It is possible that we still have two more down legs to go. Also, he says that most bear markets last 6 months to 2 years. True, these are averages and the Dow is no longer in a bear market, but it could also get worse before it gets better, and that could be soon or a long time away. Despite holding onto two NAZ stocks that have held up relatively well compared to the NAZ itself, these stocks are now approaching my original buy points--a sign to sell according to HTMMIS. Jim--- - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Money flow in the market Date: 12 Apr 2000 22:16:42 -0400 Hi Pritish, I tend to the simplistic rather than the complicated and expensive. Have you considered simply looking at the Money Flow chart at BigCharts for the major indexes and see how it tracks with their pricing performance? Here's Nasdaq for the past month for example: http://www.bigcharts.com/intchart/frames/frames.asp?symb=tmbs&tim e=4&freq=1 The free way is not always the best way, but I like to try it before I make it complicated and labor intensive and expensive. Please let us hear if this works. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html ----- Original Message ----- Sent: Wednesday, April 12, 2000 2:01 PM Hi, I was wondering if there is any way to measure money flow into the market at the end of each day. I think that would be a better guage of bull/bear than anything else. I was thinking along the line of adding up the market cap of all the exchange traded companies and figuring out if the money is flowing in our out. Does that make sense? This could be extended a bit by finding out where the money is flowing? I am pretty sure that someone has already thought of this but I do not know if the information is accessible or where is it accessible from Regards, Pritish - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Earl Setser Subject: Re: Fwd: [CANSLIM] Industry Group Strength Date: 12 Apr 2000 21:07:50 -0600 Luke and I were discussing how to get IGP performance for different timeframes. I thought this might be interesting to some of the other members. There are two possibilities that I know of that may be useful for automating some of the time I spend each weekend: 1)Daily Graphs Online has most or all of the IBD data and various lookups. I'm not sure if it has shorter term IGP data, but I would think it might. I'm considering signing up for a trail period sometime soon to work through their data and screens and see how useful it would be for me with my present approaches. I could REALLY use a way to dump IBD data into a spread sheet!!! Can Tom or others comment on what capabilities DGO gives you for getting EPS, RPS, SPR, A/D, and IGP data? 2)IBD is planning on providing some of the paper's data on-line at investors.com starting in early summer. It discusses some screening, etc. content, and seems to indicate paper subscribers will get additional content. I'm hopeful this will be very useful!!! At 06:31 PM 4/12/00 -0700, you wrote: >Earl, > >Thanks for your explanation. I was hoping to find a >more automated way to do this. > >Best regards, >Luke Lang > >--- Earl Setser wrote: >> The first list I just used the performance YTD in >> IBD. To get the second >> list, I entered the performance YTD through the >> NASDAQ peak (3/12) and then >> calculated the performance from that number and the >> YTD on Saturday. Does >> this answer your question? >> >> At 10:48 AM 4/12/00 -0700, you wrote: >> >Earl, >> > >> >I guess you probably mentioned how you generated >> these >> >lists but I wasn't paying attention. Would you >> mind >> >telling me again? Thanks. >> > >> >Best regards, >> >Luke Lang >> > >> >--- Earl Setser wrote: >> >> Date: Sat, 08 Apr 2000 18:45:50 -0600 >> >> To: canslim@xmission.com,mlaker@enol.com >> >> From: Earl Setser >> >> Subject: [CANSLIM] Industry Group Strength >> >> Reply-to: canslim@lists.xmission.com >> >> >> >> Well, I've spent some time and generated the >> Group >> >> Strength lists I >> >> mentioned the other day. Here they are in case >> >> others are interested. The >> >> top 40 groups since 1/1 are (ranked 1 to 40): >> >> >> >> Elec-Semiconductor Mfg >> >> Elec-Semiconductor Equip >> >> Medical-Generic Drugs >> >> Oil &Gas-Drilling >> >> Oil&Gas-Machinery/Equip >> >> Elec-Measrng Instruments >> >> Computer-Memory Devices >> >> Telecommunications-Equip >> >> Elec-Scientific Instrumn >> >> Computer-Graphics >> >> Elec-Laser Sys/Component >> >> Electrical-Connectors >> >> Elec-Parts Distributors >> >> Medical-Biomed/Genetics >> >> Medical-Ethical Drugs >> >> Medical-Products >> >> Computer-Optical Recogtn >> >> Oil&Gas-Field Services >> >> Elec Products-Misc >> >> Oil&Gas-U S Explo&Prod >> >> Electrical-Equipment >> >> Energy-Other >> >> Leisure-Photo Equip/Rel >> >> Oil&Gas-Prod/Pipeline >> >> Elec-Misc Componets >> >> Telecommunications-Svcs >> >> Bldg-Heavy Const >> >> Medical/Dental/Serv >> >> Medical-Instruments >> >> Computer Softwr-Security >> >> Comml Svcs-Security/Sfty >> >> Finance-Investment Bkrs >> >> Computer-Peripheral Eq >> >> Machinery-MtlHdlg/Autmn >> >> Houshold-Audio/Video >> >> Electrical-Control Instr >> >> Oil&Gas-Intl Specialty >> >> Comml Svcs-Schools >> >> Computer-Manufacturers >> >> Office-Equip&Automatn >> >> >> >> And the more or less top 40 groups since the peak >> of >> >> the NASDAQ are as >> >> follows. (Note that I only looked at groups in >> the >> >> top 60 over 6 months, >> >> and those with greater than 10% gain YTD, so I >> may >> >> have missed a couple of >> >> really laggard groups that have performed well >> over >> >> the last month.) >> >> >> >> Retail-Consumer Elect >> >> Retail-Apparel/Shoe >> >> Finance-Investment Mgmt >> >> Banks-Money Center >> >> Medical-Hospitals >> >> Retail-Discount&Variety >> >> Bldg-Heavy Const >> >> Food-Dairy Products >> >> Real Estate Operations >> >> Oil &Gas-Drilling >> >> Oil&Gas-Machinery/Equip >> >> Oil&Gas-U S Explo&Prod >> >> Machinery-MtlHdlg/Autmn >> >> Medical-Generis Drugs >> >> Office-Equip&Automatn >> >> Leisure-Products >> >> Auto/Truck-Original Eqp >> >> Electrical-Connectors >> >> Comml Svcs-Schools >> >> Elec-Parts Distributors >> >> Comml Svcs-Security/Sfty >> >> Oil&Gas-Prod/Pipeline >> >> Oil&Gas-Intl Specialty >> >> Electrical-Equipment >> >> Oil&Gas-Field Services >> >> Elec-Military Systems >> >> Leisure-Photo Equip/Rel >> >> Utility-Telephone >> >> Finance-Publ Inv Fd-Frn >> >> Finance-Investment Bkrs >> >> Comml Svcs-Staffing >> >> Chemicals-Plastics >> >> Polution Control-Svcs >> >> Electrical-Control Instr >> >> Retail/Whlsle-Cmptr/Cell >> >> Telecommunctns-Cellulr >> >> Media-Cable TV >> >> Comml Svcs-Misc >> >> Medical/Dental/Serv >> >> Auto/Truck-Replace Prts >> >> >> >> A quick look at this list makes it pretty easy >> for >> >> me to choose which to >> >> use. There is almost no Tech representation on >> the >> >> later list, and I >> >> believe this just shows how other industries have >> >> outperformed during this >> >> correction. The first list does a good job of >> >> shuffling some of the >> >> laggard groups down or out without throwing away >> >> those tech groups that did >> >> better than average. I think I'll use the first >> >> list as my basis for a new >> >> Leaders List. Comments or suggestions, as >> always, >> >> are welcome!! >> >> >> >> >> >> - >> >> >> >> >> > >> >__________________________________________________ >> >Do You Yahoo!? >> >Send online invitations with Yahoo! Invites. >> >http://invites.yahoo.com >> > >> > >> >> > >__________________________________________________ >Do You Yahoo!? >Send online invitations with Yahoo! Invites. >http://invites.yahoo.com > > - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Matt Robinson" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Money flow in the market Date: 12 Apr 2000 23:37:09 -0400 Yeah, money flow as a technical indicator can be found on several sites, bigcharts, as he mentioned and moneycentral. I find it very useful. Enough times to get me to pay attention, money flow will begin to decline and end up being a prophetic sign of its near term top. To clarify, here is the definition of money flow, and a description of the manner in which it is calculated from moneycentral: :Money Flow :A technical indicator that keeps a running total of the money flowing into and out of a security. Money flow(MF) :is calculated daily by multiplying the number of shares traded by the change in closing price. If prices close higher, :money flow is a positive number. If prices close lower, money flow is a negative number. A running total is kept :by adding or subtracting the current result from the previous total. :When using MF to trade, the direction of the MF line is the thing to watch, not the actual dollar amount. :This indicator will often confirm underlying strength or weakness of a price trend. It may also signal a top :by declining while the stock is still rising, indicating big money is leaving the stock. Conversely, when MF rises in :the face of a declining price trend could indicate smart money is moving in and a bottom may be at hand. An example of a stock I like although it is about 25% off of its high: IKOS. Except for April 4, volume has dropped off as the stock as bounced around, mostly lower. Money flow represents this well, in showing very little decline. Even on April 4, the volume was about average of the past 3 months (~195k), and, like the Naz, it closed well off its low that day. Volume over the past about 2 weeks of trading has been about 120k, considerably less than its 3month average. Now, I am not saying buy it. I am not saying it will even emerge once (if) the Naz/Russell comeback. For those that like/invest in small cap stocks, it is no surpise when a stock that is "obviously" good doesn't perform for a long period of time or even at all. But, the Naz selloff before the past few days has been accompanied with low volume. Anywho, I find money flow to be a valuable indicator. To each his (or her) own. Regards Matt ----- Original Message ----- Sent: Wednesday, April 12, 2000 10:16 PM > Hi Pritish, > > I tend to the simplistic rather than the complicated and > expensive. Have you considered simply looking at the Money Flow > chart at BigCharts for the major indexes and see how it tracks > with their pricing performance? > > Here's Nasdaq for the past month for example: > > http://www.bigcharts.com/intchart/frames/frames.asp?symb=tmbs&tim > e=4&freq=1 > > The free way is not always the best way, but I like to try it > before I make it complicated and labor intensive and expensive. > > Please let us hear if this works. > > Tom Worley > stkguru@netside.net > chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 > get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html > > > ----- Original Message ----- > From: Pritish Shah > To: > Sent: Wednesday, April 12, 2000 2:01 PM > Subject: [CANSLIM] Money flow in the market > > > > Hi, > > I was wondering if there is any way to measure money flow into > the market > at the end of each day. I think that would be a better guage of > bull/bear > than anything else. > > I was thinking along the line of adding up the market cap of all > the > exchange traded companies and figuring out if the money is > flowing in our > out. > > Does that make sense? This could be extended a bit by finding out > where > the money is flowing? > > I am pretty sure that someone has already thought of this but I > do not > know if the information is accessible or where is it accessible > from > > Regards, > Pritish > > > - > > > > - > __________________________________________________ Do You Yahoo!? Talk to your friends online with Yahoo! Messenger. http://im.yahoo.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: Fwd: [CANSLIM] Industry Group Strength Date: 12 Apr 2000 23:29:02 -0400 Hi Earl, While you can lookup any stock at DGO, the "lists" provided (pre formatted reports) are all limited to those stocks (slightly more than 2,800) that are contained in the DG books. One of these lists is the Index, which can easily be downloaded into an Excel or Lotus spread sheet. This index holds 13 columns of data, of which two are different each day. Thus, over a week there are a total of 21 columns of data, one of which is the Industry Group. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html ----- Original Message ----- Sent: Wednesday, April 12, 2000 11:07 PM Luke and I were discussing how to get IGP performance for different timeframes. I thought this might be interesting to some of the other members. There are two possibilities that I know of that may be useful for automating some of the time I spend each weekend: 1)Daily Graphs Online has most or all of the IBD data and various lookups. I'm not sure if it has shorter term IGP data, but I would think it might. I'm considering signing up for a trail period sometime soon to work through their data and screens and see how useful it would be for me with my present approaches. I could REALLY use a way to dump IBD data into a spread sheet!!! Can Tom or others comment on what capabilities DGO gives you for getting EPS, RPS, SPR, A/D, and IGP data? 2)IBD is planning on providing some of the paper's data on-line at investors.com starting in early summer. It discusses some screening, etc. content, and seems to indicate paper subscribers will get additional content. I'm hopeful this will be very useful!!! At 06:31 PM 4/12/00 -0700, you wrote: >Earl, > >Thanks for your explanation. I was hoping to find a >more automated way to do this. > >Best regards, >Luke Lang > >--- Earl Setser wrote: >> The first list I just used the performance YTD in >> IBD. To get the second >> list, I entered the performance YTD through the >> NASDAQ peak (3/12) and then >> calculated the performance from that number and the >> YTD on Saturday. Does >> this answer your question? >> >> At 10:48 AM 4/12/00 -0700, you wrote: >> >Earl, >> > >> >I guess you probably mentioned how you generated >> these >> >lists but I wasn't paying attention. Would you >> mind >> >telling me again? Thanks. >> > >> >Best regards, >> >Luke Lang >> > >> >--- Earl Setser wrote: >> >> Date: Sat, 08 Apr 2000 18:45:50 -0600 >> >> To: canslim@xmission.com,mlaker@enol.com >> >> From: Earl Setser >> >> Subject: [CANSLIM] Industry Group Strength >> >> Reply-to: canslim@lists.xmission.com >> >> >> >> Well, I've spent some time and generated the >> Group >> >> Strength lists I >> >> mentioned the other day. Here they are in case >> >> others are interested. The >> >> top 40 groups since 1/1 are (ranked 1 to 40): >> >> >> >> Elec-Semiconductor Mfg >> >> Elec-Semiconductor Equip >> >> Medical-Generic Drugs >> >> Oil &Gas-Drilling >> >> Oil&Gas-Machinery/Equip >> >> Elec-Measrng Instruments >> >> Computer-Memory Devices >> >> Telecommunications-Equip >> >> Elec-Scientific Instrumn >> >> Computer-Graphics >> >> Elec-Laser Sys/Component >> >> Electrical-Connectors >> >> Elec-Parts Distributors >> >> Medical-Biomed/Genetics >> >> Medical-Ethical Drugs >> >> Medical-Products >> >> Computer-Optical Recogtn >> >> Oil&Gas-Field Services >> >> Elec Products-Misc >> >> Oil&Gas-U S Explo&Prod >> >> Electrical-Equipment >> >> Energy-Other >> >> Leisure-Photo Equip/Rel >> >> Oil&Gas-Prod/Pipeline >> >> Elec-Misc Componets >> >> Telecommunications-Svcs >> >> Bldg-Heavy Const >> >> Medical/Dental/Serv >> >> Medical-Instruments >> >> Computer Softwr-Security >> >> Comml Svcs-Security/Sfty >> >> Finance-Investment Bkrs >> >> Computer-Peripheral Eq >> >> Machinery-MtlHdlg/Autmn >> >> Houshold-Audio/Video >> >> Electrical-Control Instr >> >> Oil&Gas-Intl Specialty >> >> Comml Svcs-Schools >> >> Computer-Manufacturers >> >> Office-Equip&Automatn >> >> >> >> And the more or less top 40 groups since the peak >> of >> >> the NASDAQ are as >> >> follows. (Note that I only looked at groups in >> the >> >> top 60 over 6 months, >> >> and those with greater than 10% gain YTD, so I >> may >> >> have missed a couple of >> >> really laggard groups that have performed well >> over >> >> the last month.) >> >> >> >> Retail-Consumer Elect >> >> Retail-Apparel/Shoe >> >> Finance-Investment Mgmt >> >> Banks-Money Center >> >> Medical-Hospitals >> >> Retail-Discount&Variety >> >> Bldg-Heavy Const >> >> Food-Dairy Products >> >> Real Estate Operations >> >> Oil &Gas-Drilling >> >> Oil&Gas-Machinery/Equip >> >> Oil&Gas-U S Explo&Prod >> >> Machinery-MtlHdlg/Autmn >> >> Medical-Generis Drugs >> >> Office-Equip&Automatn >> >> Leisure-Products >> >> Auto/Truck-Original Eqp >> >> Electrical-Connectors >> >> Comml Svcs-Schools >> >> Elec-Parts Distributors >> >> Comml Svcs-Security/Sfty >> >> Oil&Gas-Prod/Pipeline >> >> Oil&Gas-Intl Specialty >> >> Electrical-Equipment >> >> Oil&Gas-Field Services >> >> Elec-Military Systems >> >> Leisure-Photo Equip/Rel >> >> Utility-Telephone >> >> Finance-Publ Inv Fd-Frn >> >> Finance-Investment Bkrs >> >> Comml Svcs-Staffing >> >> Chemicals-Plastics >> >> Polution Control-Svcs >> >> Electrical-Control Instr >> >> Retail/Whlsle-Cmptr/Cell >> >> Telecommunctns-Cellulr >> >> Media-Cable TV >> >> Comml Svcs-Misc >> >> Medical/Dental/Serv >> >> Auto/Truck-Replace Prts >> >> >> >> A quick look at this list makes it pretty easy >> for >> >> me to choose which to >> >> use. There is almost no Tech representation on >> the >> >> later list, and I >> >> believe this just shows how other industries have >> >> outperformed during this >> >> correction. The first list does a good job of >> >> shuffling some of the >> >> laggard groups down or out without throwing away >> >> those tech groups that did >> >> better than average. I think I'll use the first >> >> list as my basis for a new >> >> Leaders List. Comments or suggestions, as >> always, >> >> are welcome!! >> >> >> >> >> >> - >> >> >> >> >> > >> >__________________________________________________ >> >Do You Yahoo!? >> >Send online invitations with Yahoo! Invites. >> >http://invites.yahoo.com >> > >> > >> >> > >__________________________________________________ >Do You Yahoo!? >Send online invitations with Yahoo! Invites. >http://invites.yahoo.com > > - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Money flow in the market Date: 13 Apr 2000 01:10:21 -0400 So, money has the same weakness that BigCharts has, its money flow chart simply is reflective of volume and price, and not money. If a stock/index has 500,000 shares bot on an uptick, but the last 1,000 shares trade on the bid and result in the stock showing a downtick for the day at the close, it counts as an outflow of money even tho there were far more buyers than sellers. Does anyone have a free site that bases its money flow on actual trading, rather than the aggregate of the day? Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html ----- Original Message ----- Sent: Wednesday, April 12, 2000 11:37 PM Yeah, money flow as a technical indicator can be found on several sites, bigcharts, as he mentioned and moneycentral. I find it very useful. Enough times to get me to pay attention, money flow will begin to decline and end up being a prophetic sign of its near term top. To clarify, here is the definition of money flow, and a description of the manner in which it is calculated from moneycentral: :Money Flow :A technical indicator that keeps a running total of the money flowing into and out of a security. Money flow(MF) :is calculated daily by multiplying the number of shares traded by the change in closing price. If prices close higher, :money flow is a positive number. If prices close lower, money flow is a negative number. A running total is kept :by adding or subtracting the current result from the previous total. :When using MF to trade, the direction of the MF line is the thing to watch, not the actual dollar amount. :This indicator will often confirm underlying strength or weakness of a price trend. It may also signal a top :by declining while the stock is still rising, indicating big money is leaving the stock. Conversely, when MF rises in :the face of a declining price trend could indicate smart money is moving in and a bottom may be at hand. An example of a stock I like although it is about 25% off of its high: IKOS. Except for April 4, volume has dropped off as the stock as bounced around, mostly lower. Money flow represents this well, in showing very little decline. Even on April 4, the volume was about average of the past 3 months (~195k), and, like the Naz, it closed well off its low that day. Volume over the past about 2 weeks of trading has been about 120k, considerably less than its 3month average. Now, I am not saying buy it. I am not saying it will even emerge once (if) the Naz/Russell comeback. For those that like/invest in small cap stocks, it is no surpise when a stock that is "obviously" good doesn't perform for a long period of time or even at all. But, the Naz selloff before the past few days has been accompanied with low volume. Anywho, I find money flow to be a valuable indicator. To each his (or her) own. Regards Matt ----- Original Message ----- Sent: Wednesday, April 12, 2000 10:16 PM > Hi Pritish, > > I tend to the simplistic rather than the complicated and > expensive. Have you considered simply looking at the Money Flow > chart at BigCharts for the major indexes and see how it tracks > with their pricing performance? > > Here's Nasdaq for the past month for example: > > http://www.bigcharts.com/intchart/frames/frames.asp?symb=tmbs&tim > e=4&freq=1 > > The free way is not always the best way, but I like to try it > before I make it complicated and labor intensive and expensive. > > Please let us hear if this works. > > Tom Worley > stkguru@netside.net > chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 > get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html > > > ----- Original Message ----- > From: Pritish Shah > To: > Sent: Wednesday, April 12, 2000 2:01 PM > Subject: [CANSLIM] Money flow in the market > > > > Hi, > > I was wondering if there is any way to measure money flow into > the market > at the end of each day. I think that would be a better guage of > bull/bear > than anything else. > > I was thinking along the line of adding up the market cap of all > the > exchange traded companies and figuring out if the money is > flowing in our > out. > > Does that make sense? This could be extended a bit by finding out > where > the money is flowing? > > I am pretty sure that someone has already thought of this but I > do not > know if the information is accessible or where is it accessible > from > > Regards, > Pritish > > > - > > > > - > __________________________________________________ Do You Yahoo!? Talk to your friends online with Yahoo! Messenger. http://im.yahoo.com - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tim Fisher" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Definition of a bear market Date: 12 Apr 2000 18:20:12 -0700 A bear market is not a 28% correction over a couple of weeks. Since a bear market lasts 6 months to 2 years or more, if the NASDAQ is still 20% below 5000 in 6 months, is it then in a bear market? Probably. Likewise the DOW was never in a bear market, just a correction. It actually looks locked in a trading range now & I doubt it is going to be making any new highs in the short term. FWIW I am too busy to watch my accounts & as proof, I failed to put stops on my most recent buys, so I am down to zero on my fully margined account, lost it all on my calls, & will have to drop my net service. Just joking, for those of you who remember the list member who posted a similar message after the great Asian crash of '98. Didn't he "bet the farm" on Asian futures and lose it all? I am @ 12.5% down & not fretting. I am in 7 "old techs" and 3 "new techs" that look horrible in the short term but I am sick & tired of churning & generating commissions for SCH & Bidwell. So I'm riding this one out. Damn the torpedos and all that. Actually I reprioritized my life, cut out my favorite hobbies (at least cut way down), got health conscious, and am focusing on my family and property. Sort of a reverse midlife crisis. I have spent all of 6 hours or so on stocks in the past month. Feels great to not sit at this PC for an hour plus every night staring at charts & scans. P.S. When the Motley Fool slobbers all over CHKP & it drops a load that same day, you know all rationality is out the window. Quite the opposite of the equally irrational reaction to their pumping of CRA a few months ago. P.P.S. I also disagree that we should start counting all over "yet". Who knows what will happen tomorrow but IMHO the "rally", if in fact it has started, has not been violated as we have not hit the previous intraday low either on an intraday or a closing basis. The rally is not dead until that has happened. I bet $20 the rally is dead tomorrow. At 12:22 PM 4/12/00 -0700, you wrote: >If I'm not mistaken, the NASDAQ is into a bear market--off more than >20%...closer >to 30% actually. Also, WON says that many bear markets have 3 down legs >with small >rallies in between. It is possible that we still have two more down legs >to go. >Also, he says that most bear markets last 6 months to 2 years. True, >these are >averages and the Dow is no longer in a bear market, but it could also get >worse >before it gets better, and that could be soon or a long time away. > >Despite holding onto two NAZ stocks that have held up relatively well >compared to >the NAZ itself, these stocks are now approaching my original buy points--a >sign to >sell according to HTMMIS. > >Jim--- Tim Fisher, 1995 President, Pacific Fishery Biologists Ore-ROCK-On Rockhounding Web Site PFB Information mailto:tim@OreRockOn.com WWW http://OreRockOn.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: jeff.salisbury@xmission.com Date: 13 Apr 2000 03:09:52 -0600 (EDT) Message-ID: <13.3d26ffc.2626a0ba@aol.com> MIME-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII" Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit X-Mailer: AOL 4.0.i for Mac sub 189 O'Neil state how u spot bear market in his book "How to make money in stock market". This is definitely it. Get off margin, wait until leader lead market again that is when bull market start. I hope this help. - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: rolatzi Subject: [CANSLIM] Support for NASDAQ Date: 13 Apr 2000 06:10:12 -0700 (PDT) My reading of the tea leaves are as follows. The 200dMA is at about 3650. Also, the previous recent downdraft touched the 200dMA intraday. It is a most important level of support at this point since many managers (i have read) look at the 50 and 200dMA for buying decisions. Let's see what this morning brings. An early downdraft to 3650 followed by buying and recovery would be rather optimistic. An intraday low below 200dMA but a close above it would also be okay. Second, there was a channel of support until this past fall. If you connect the bottoms during the previous 2 years or so and exclude the stock movement since 11/99 you get a nice straight line which reaches to around 3000 at this time. This represents another level of support albeit at a much lower level than one might like. BTW, Tom, have you noticed how well energy has held up in this correction. It was in fact up yesterday. OPEC has indicated that they will not cave in to the futures market and is willing to support the price of oil by taking the increase off the market. With the reporting season here, I expect that energy producers will blow away the earnings estimates. Unless the market goes really low and panic sets in, I expect more rotation into this sector. Good luck to all. Rolatzi __________________________________________________ Do You Yahoo!? Send online invitations with Yahoo! Invites. http://invites.yahoo.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Werner Vandewiele Subject: [CANSLIM] Dow Tranportation has been rallying Date: 13 Apr 2000 23:14:29 +0200 I wonder why the Dow Transportation has been rallying lately. Anyone with a possible explanation? Regards, <<< Werner Vandewiele >>> - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Dow Tranportation has been rallying Date: 13 Apr 2000 22:09:47 -0400 Lower fuel prices, and expectations of even lower prices ahead. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html ----- Original Message ----- Sent: Thursday, April 13, 2000 5:14 PM I wonder why the Dow Transportation has been rallying lately. Anyone with a possible explanation? Regards, <<< Werner Vandewiele >>> - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: rolatzi Subject: [CANSLIM] NASDAQ support Date: 14 Apr 2000 09:20:39 -0700 (PDT) Is anyone having fun yet? The NASDAQ has broken 200dMA at 3500. If if closes below 3500, it is likely to find support around the 3000 level. The would be the line connecting the lows over the last few years, before the exponential rise since last October. Even energy is getting hit today, though not nearly as badly as everything else. ciao, rolatzi __________________________________________________ Do You Yahoo!? Send online invitations with Yahoo! Invites. http://invites.yahoo.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Dave Rubin" Subject: [CANSLIM] Watch for rebounders Date: 14 Apr 2000 12:28:25 -0400 Clearly we're in a bear market and now is the time to watch for stocks that will lead the next rally. Is anyone looking at stocks with strong EPS and RS that have been trading on relatively lower volume over the past few weeks and have not been hurt as much as the overall market? Seems to me you can pick up any Friday edition of IBD from March and look at the weekly review page, which at the time was the "stocks I should have bought long ago" page. By now, many of those stocks have probably had substantial corrections. Some of them will be leaders again when the market gets out of this slump. Since CANSLIM does not permit us to buy ANYTHING now, has anyone been compiling watch lists of stocks to watch for new bases? Is anyone tempted (as I am) to break the CANSLIM rules and buy some of the former leaders once the market truly bottoms? For example, now may be the last opportunity to get JDSU in the 80s, but CANSLIM forces us to wait until it breaks out to new highs. If we do that we will miss an 87% gain while it climbs back to those old highs. This is always one rule that I have trouble following... -- Dave - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: han.26@osu.edu Subject: [CANSLIM] Read HTMMIS again for bear mkt. definition Date: 14 Apr 2000 12:47:28 -0700 HTMMIS only says that typical bear markets last 6 months to 2 years. That means this bear market is simply atypical, but to say that a 30% drop is not a bear market just because of how fast it happens seems like wishful thinking. In my book, we've been there for over a week, and I think that HTMMIS says the same if you read it carefully. >>>I also disagree that we should start counting all over "yet". Who knows what will happen tomorrow but IMHO the "rally", if in fact it has started, has not been violated as we have not hit the previous intraday low ...<<< -read today's IBD front page. You DO have to count over as of a few days ago [since the CLOSING low not the intraday low is used]. -Jim--- - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Dwayne Andras" Subject: [CANSLIM] Good thing I am mostly cash Date: 14 Apr 2000 11:59:23 -0500 Over the last few weeks i am mostly cash now, Got out of many with a profit. I am rather new to canslim, but i like what it has done for me so far. Only question i have..what do I do know in the Bear market,,,, be glad i'm in cash.(a bit boring)....Oh yeah I have a family... Just joking. How all of ya'll are doing ok...sit back and enjoy the ride, not many are. Dwayne Deeandras@cajun.net -----Original Message----- >Is anyone having fun yet? > >The NASDAQ has broken 200dMA at 3500. If if closes below >3500, it is likely to find support around the 3000 level. >The would be the line connecting the lows over the last few >years, before the exponential rise since last October. > >Even energy is getting hit today, though not nearly as >badly as everything else. > >ciao, >rolatzi > > >__________________________________________________ >Do You Yahoo!? >Send online invitations with Yahoo! Invites. >http://invites.yahoo.com > >- > > - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Ricardo Bekin" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Watch for rebounders Date: 14 Apr 2000 12:51:44 -0500 Put this list together a few days ago, not sure how well they've fared the last two days: ACF BKST CLC.TO CHCS PLCE EPII THX IDR LSTR SHOO NVR CHUX SKYW TSMA.TO TGIC WFSI Ricardo ----- Original Message ----- Sent: Friday, April 14, 2000 11:28 AM > Clearly we're in a bear market and now is the time to watch for stocks that > will lead the next rally. > > Is anyone looking at stocks with strong EPS and RS that have been trading on > relatively lower volume over the past few weeks and have not been hurt as > much as the overall market? > > Seems to me you can pick up any Friday edition of IBD from March and look at > the weekly review page, which at the time was the "stocks I should have > bought long ago" page. By now, many of those stocks have probably had > substantial corrections. Some of them will be leaders again when the market > gets out of this slump. > > Since CANSLIM does not permit us to buy ANYTHING now, has anyone been > compiling watch lists of stocks to watch for new bases? > > Is anyone tempted (as I am) to break the CANSLIM rules and buy some of the > former leaders once the market truly bottoms? For example, now may be the > last opportunity to get JDSU in the 80s, but CANSLIM forces us to wait until > it breaks out to new highs. If we do that we will miss an 87% gain while it > climbs back to those old highs. This is always one rule that I have trouble > following... > > -- > Dave > > > - > > - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Ricardo Bekin" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Watch for rebounders Date: 14 Apr 2000 12:53:51 -0500 Put this list together a few days ago, not sure how well they've fared the last two days: ACF BKST CLC.TO CHCS PLCE EPII THX IDR LSTR SHOO NVR CHUX SKYW TSMA.TO TGIC WFSI Ricardo ----- Original Message ----- Sent: Friday, April 14, 2000 11:28 AM > Clearly we're in a bear market and now is the time to watch for stocks that > will lead the next rally. > > Is anyone looking at stocks with strong EPS and RS that have been trading on > relatively lower volume over the past few weeks and have not been hurt as > much as the overall market? > > Seems to me you can pick up any Friday edition of IBD from March and look at > the weekly review page, which at the time was the "stocks I should have > bought long ago" page. By now, many of those stocks have probably had > substantial corrections. Some of them will be leaders again when the market > gets out of this slump. > > Since CANSLIM does not permit us to buy ANYTHING now, has anyone been > compiling watch lists of stocks to watch for new bases? > > Is anyone tempted (as I am) to break the CANSLIM rules and buy some of the > former leaders once the market truly bottoms? For example, now may be the > last opportunity to get JDSU in the 80s, but CANSLIM forces us to wait until > it breaks out to new highs. If we do that we will miss an 87% gain while it > climbs back to those old highs. This is always one rule that I have trouble > following... > > -- > Dave > > > - > > - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Matt Robinson" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Read HTMMIS again for bear mkt. definition Date: 14 Apr 2000 14:03:25 -0400 Again, I think people get to caught up in semantics. You contend that because we have dropped 30% or whatever it may be we can be classified as being in a bear market. Well, I tend to disagree. Why? I don't think returns are the only, and in fact the primary factor in defining a bear market, I think time is a more important parameter. Does he say specifically, the drop is more important than the time? Even someone does say that a correction of such-and-such is a bear market, does that mean others should? Different strokes for different folks. One of my main points on commenting on the discussion of FTDs was that markets and market analysis is a subjective thing. While many quantifiable numbers have been invented and are constantly generated, the question still remains: how does one interpret such numbers. Sometimes (more often than the infamous they would like to admit) the most common accepted value and interpretation of numbers is wrong, or at least leads one to limit himself (or herself) to below average returns. E.g., security analysis from a strictly P/E perspective. Now, because I am not classifying this as a speed of light bear market, doesn't mean I am saying one should approach it like a bull market or a trading bound market. Typically, in a bear market, one could do well possibly finding shorts and riding them down. What would you short in this market? The high-flying over-valued stocks that are getting decimated and plummeting back towards more reasonable valuations. I would highly advise against this as you could be caught in one of the biggest short squeezes ever seen. Some people may be looking at these stocks and saying to themselves, "These stocks are where they were back in so-and-so, where I should have gotten in. If they go much lower, it would be stupid not to buy." While I don't think, they will just go out and start buying, I feel that given a catalyst, this market direction could change very quickly. If there is some good news (as perceived by the market) and some "influential figures" come out and say, Jump!, many out there will say, "How high." Further, I think funds will begin to buy back in at some point, but I don't think these stocks should be valued how they are and I don't think fund managers are idiots. First, over the years of this bull market managers that have "treaded lightly" have gotten their heads banged against the wall repeatedly. Second, funds have a vested interest in keeping the market up. Why? Well, where do their salaries come from? While the market heading higher might not make rational sense as far as historical returns and valuations go, the market, as it is driven by people, is not exactly a rational beast. This can be especially accentuated at extreme tops and bottoms. So, maybe you short some of the old economy stocks as you feel that if the Naz continues lower these stocks will follow simply because of the damage done to markets as a whole. Or, conversely, if the market goes back to Nasdaq-mania, these stocks are sure to lose as well. But, the question is how low can they go Sam? Many of these "old economy" stocks are trading at ridiculously low multiples. I think that classifications of markets is best done by determining appropriate action. I realize that much of the purpose of identifying a market is to then be directed in the course of appropriate action. During the genesis or the markets, no one decreed that there must be set of followed rules: if A, then B. Why do you think that despite ENORMOUS work, mechanical trading systems have met with limited success (especially if one considers a LONG time horizon)? Lastly, how long do you think the market can continue in the manner it has for the past weeks? A side note, securities are often bounded to the region >=0. So, what I say, something is obviously going to change, and quickly. Maybe, it will only mean a slower decline. Maybe, it will mean higher highs. But, my point is that "typical" bear market trading principles will probably not lend themselves to well in this market. Don't get stuck on the semantics of classification. Regards Matt Sorry, but I didn't have time to proofread this, as I had to go to class. I apologize. ----- Original Message ----- Sent: Friday, April 14, 2000 3:47 PM > HTMMIS only says that typical bear markets last 6 months to 2 years. That > means this bear market is simply atypical, but to say that a 30% drop is not a > bear market just because of how fast it happens seems like wishful thinking. > > In my book, we've been there for over a week, and I think that HTMMIS says the > same if you read it carefully. > > > >>>I also disagree that we should start counting all over "yet". Who > knows what will happen tomorrow but IMHO the "rally", if in fact it has > started, has not been violated as we have not hit the previous intraday > low ...<<< > > -read today's IBD front page. You DO have to count over as of a few days ago > [since the CLOSING low not the intraday low is used]. > > -Jim--- > > > - > __________________________________________________ Do You Yahoo!? Talk to your friends online with Yahoo! Messenger. http://im.yahoo.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Matt Robinson" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Read HTMMIS again for bear mkt. definition Date: 14 Apr 2000 15:06:43 -0400 Ok, I am back from class..........sorry for the typos. OUCH! To continue and in light of the continued decline, the amount that the market has dropped has surprised me, but perhaps there is more to come. While the Nasdaq is severely oversold, this often happens has stocks/indices change trend. Further, one must consider that everyone's tolerance to selling pressure/pain is different. While everyone looks for the extreme day of selling to get the "weaker hands" out of the market before trying to call a bottom, some hands are weaker than others. With the rapid drops the market is more likely to crash through a significant number of people's "tolerance level, " the self supporting nature of a selloff must be more seriously considered. Further, I think we are seeing this, and perhaps will see even to a great extent, accentuated by the unraveling of leverage that so many were worried about. Unfortunately, I am still about 35% invested in my trading, and about 60% in my Roth. Well, I would have sold more, but I figure with the small amount I have to invest as comparable to future income (hopefully anyway) is such that the reward of being in the market if it goes higher outweighs the risk of even a severe crash. Regards Matt ----- Original Message ----- Sent: Friday, April 14, 2000 2:03 PM > Again, I think people get to caught up in semantics. You contend that > because we have dropped 30% or whatever it may be we can be classified as > being in a bear market. Well, I tend to disagree. Why? I don't think returns > are the only, and in fact the primary factor in defining a bear market, I > think time is a more important parameter. Does he say specifically, the drop > is more important than the time? Even someone does say that a correction of > such-and-such is a bear market, does that mean others should? Different > strokes for different folks. One of my main points on commenting on the > discussion of FTDs was that markets and market analysis is a subjective > thing. While many quantifiable numbers have been invented and are constantly > generated, the question still remains: how does one interpret such numbers. > Sometimes (more often than the infamous they would like to admit) the most > common accepted value and interpretation of numbers is wrong, or at least > leads one to limit himself (or herself) to below average returns. E.g., > security analysis from a strictly P/E perspective. > > Now, because I am not classifying this as a speed of light bear market, > doesn't mean I am saying one should approach it like a bull market or a > trading bound market. > > Typically, in a bear market, one could do well possibly finding shorts and > riding them down. What would you short in this market? The high-flying > over-valued stocks that are getting decimated and plummeting back towards > more reasonable valuations. I would highly advise against this as you could > be caught in one of the biggest short squeezes ever seen. Some people may be > looking at these stocks and saying to themselves, "These stocks are where > they were back in so-and-so, where I should have gotten in. If they go much > lower, it would be stupid not to buy." While I don't think, they will just > go out and start buying, I feel that given a catalyst, this market direction > could change very quickly. If there is some good news (as perceived by the > market) and some "influential figures" come out and say, Jump!, many out > there will say, "How high." Further, I think funds will begin to buy back in > at some point, but I don't think these stocks should be valued how they are > and I don't think fund managers are idiots. First, over the years of this > bull market managers that have "treaded lightly" have gotten their heads > banged against the wall repeatedly. Second, funds have a vested interest in > keeping the market up. Why? Well, where do their salaries come from? While > the market heading higher might not make rational sense as far as historical > returns and valuations go, the market, as it is driven by people, is not > exactly a rational beast. This can be especially accentuated at extreme tops > and bottoms. > > So, maybe you short some of the old economy stocks as you feel that if the > Naz continues lower these stocks will follow simply because of the damage > done to markets as a whole. Or, conversely, if the market goes back to > Nasdaq-mania, these stocks are sure to lose as well. But, the question is > how low can they go Sam? Many of these "old economy" stocks are trading at > ridiculously low multiples. > > I think that classifications of markets is best done by determining > appropriate action. I realize that much of the purpose of identifying a > market is to then be directed in the course of appropriate action. During > the genesis or the markets, no one decreed that there must be set of > followed rules: if A, then B. Why do you think that despite ENORMOUS work, > mechanical trading systems have met with limited success (especially if one > considers a LONG time horizon)? > > Lastly, how long do you think the market can continue in the manner it has > for the past weeks? A side note, securities are often bounded to the region > >=0. So, what I say, something is obviously going to change, and quickly. > Maybe, it will only mean a slower decline. Maybe, it will mean higher highs. > But, my point is that "typical" bear market trading principles will probably > not lend themselves to well in this market. Don't get stuck on the semantics > of classification. > > Regards > Matt > > Sorry, but I didn't have time to proofread this, as I had to go to class. I > apologize. > > > ----- Original Message ----- > From: > To: > Sent: Friday, April 14, 2000 3:47 PM > Subject: [CANSLIM] Read HTMMIS again for bear mkt. definition > > > > HTMMIS only says that typical bear markets last 6 months to 2 years. That > > means this bear market is simply atypical, but to say that a 30% drop is > not a > > bear market just because of how fast it happens seems like wishful > thinking. > > > > In my book, we've been there for over a week, and I think that HTMMIS says > the > > same if you read it carefully. > > > > > > >>>I also disagree that we should start counting all over "yet". Who > > knows what will happen tomorrow but IMHO the "rally", if in fact it has > > started, has not been violated as we have not hit the previous intraday > > low ...<<< > > > > -read today's IBD front page. You DO have to count over as of a few days > ago > > [since the CLOSING low not the intraday low is used]. > > > > -Jim--- > > > > > > - > > > > > __________________________________________________ > Do You Yahoo!? > Talk to your friends online with Yahoo! Messenger. > http://im.yahoo.com > > - > __________________________________________________ Do You Yahoo!? Talk to your friends online with Yahoo! Messenger. http://im.yahoo.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Wahl, Patrick" Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] Watch for rebounders Date: 14 Apr 2000 13:34:44 -0600 > -----Original Message----- > From: Dave Rubin [mailto:drubin@incise.com] > Sent: Friday, April 14, 2000 10:28 AM > To: canslim@lists.xmission.com > Subject: [CANSLIM] Watch for rebounders > > Is anyone tempted (as I am) to break the CANSLIM rules and > buy some of the > former leaders once the market truly bottoms? For example, > now may be the > last opportunity to get JDSU in the 80s, but CANSLIM forces > us to wait until > it breaks out to new highs. If we do that we will miss an 87% > gain while it I can see two problems here - one, tell me how you know when the market truly bottoms. I know when the market is in an uptrend (well, much of the time I think I can identify an uptrend), and I think I know a downtrend (that would be now), but trying to call that inflection point where it switches from down to up is a tough one. Second - you don't know that all of these beaten up tech stocks are going to be market leaders on the next uptrend. Sounds like you are assuming they will rebound right back to their old highs, but they may not. - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Earl Setser Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Watch for rebounders Date: 14 Apr 2000 13:48:46 -0600 At 12:28 PM 4/14/00 -0400, you wrote: >Clearly we're in a bear market and now is the time to watch for stocks that >will lead the next rally. > >Is anyone looking at stocks with strong EPS and RS that have been trading on >relatively lower volume over the past few weeks and have not been hurt as >much as the overall market? I am still trying to pick the best EPS and RS numbers from the Top 40 IGPs using YTD numbers. I actually had a few picked out that looked poised to break out of 4 week bases last week, but the FT day never developed, and the downtrend picked up steam. > >Seems to me you can pick up any Friday edition of IBD from March and look at >the weekly review page, which at the time was the "stocks I should have >bought long ago" page. By now, many of those stocks have probably had >substantial corrections. Some of them will be leaders again when the market >gets out of this slump. I didn't get the paper today (rainstorm delayed flight in maybe??), but I'm guessing the Weekly Review will be pretty sparse when I get it (hopefully) in the morning. The really interesting question is which IGPs will lead. > >Since CANSLIM does not permit us to buy ANYTHING now, has anyone been >compiling watch lists of stocks to watch for new bases? > >Is anyone tempted (as I am) to break the CANSLIM rules and buy some of the >former leaders once the market truly bottoms? For example, now may be the >last opportunity to get JDSU in the 80s, but CANSLIM forces us to wait until >it breaks out to new highs. If we do that we will miss an 87% gain while it >climbs back to those old highs. This is always one rule that I have trouble >following... > >-- >Dave > Tempted, yes. But I'm holding off so far. I did have some friends pick up RFMD, ETEK and EMLX at bargain prices. The good story is that RFMD was sold at a tidy 40 or 50% gain a couple days later. I'm not sure where they got out of ETEK or EMLX, but I'm pretty sure they didn't get out when they should have, and if they are still holding, they are hurting!! Note that I sold ETEK at 205.6 and EMLX at about 174 a few weeks back, and I think it may be some time before these are stocks that the charts tell you to buy. - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Earl Setser Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Read HTMMIS again for bear mkt. definition Date: 14 Apr 2000 13:51:12 -0600 IBD also had an article about NASDAQ corrections a little while back, maybe last week. It noted that the NASDAQ corrections and bear markets have been more volatile and shorter over the last few cycles. They discussed outlooks with several experts who felt this one would probably be relatively short (ending in 1 month to as late as fall). At 12:47 PM 4/14/00 -0700, you wrote: >HTMMIS only says that typical bear markets last 6 months to 2 years. That >means this bear market is simply atypical, but to say that a 30% drop is not a >bear market just because of how fast it happens seems like wishful thinking. > >In my book, we've been there for over a week, and I think that HTMMIS says the >same if you read it carefully. > > >>>>I also disagree that we should start counting all over "yet". Who >knows what will happen tomorrow but IMHO the "rally", if in fact it has >started, has not been violated as we have not hit the previous intraday >low ...<<< > >-read today's IBD front page. You DO have to count over as of a few days ago >[since the CLOSING low not the intraday low is used]. > >-Jim--- > > >- > > > - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Dave Massaglia" Subject: [CANSLIM] Re: When and what to buy? Date: 14 Apr 2000 14:23:33 PDT I am new to the CANSLIM system. Even though I have read the book, I am still having a difficulty knowing when and what to buy. I know the formula, but where do you get the information you need to make your buy decision? I have screened stocks on STOCKTABLES.COM and on CANSLIM.NET and read about companies, but I guess I'm looking for someone or an email to tell me: BUY THIS TODAY! Where do you people get your information and hoe do you make your decisions on what to buy? I bought SHFL the other day because it had over 90 EPS rank, over 80 Relative strength, was a B Acc/Dist and had hit it's 1 yr. high. What else do I look for? Thanks Dave Massaglia > >Is anyone having fun yet? > >The NASDAQ has broken 200dMA at 3500. If if closes below >3500, it is likely to find support around the 3000 level. >The would be the line connecting the lows over the last few >years, before the exponential rise since last October. > >Even energy is getting hit today, though not nearly as >badly as everything else. > >ciao, >rolatzi > > >__________________________________________________ >Do You Yahoo!? >Send online invitations with Yahoo! Invites. >http://invites.yahoo.com > >- > ______________________________________________________ Get Your Private, Free Email at http://www.hotmail.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Patrick Wahl" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Re: When and what to buy? Date: 14 Apr 2000 23:39:34 -0600 On 14 Apr 00, at 14:23, Dave Massaglia wrote: > I am new to the CANSLIM system. Even though I have read the book, I am still > having a difficulty knowing when and what to buy. I know the formula, but > where do you get the information you need to make your buy decision? I have > screened stocks on STOCKTABLES.COM and on CANSLIM.NET and read about > companies, but I guess I'm looking for someone or an email to tell me: BUY > THIS TODAY! Where do you people get your information and hoe do you make > your decisions on what to buy? > > I bought SHFL the other day because it had over 90 EPS rank, over 80 > Relative strength, was a B Acc/Dist and had hit it's 1 yr. high. What else > do I look for? Taking a quick look, the base was relatively short, only four weeks long, usually you would like to see 8 weeks or longer in a base before buying. However, aside from the short base, if you bought it on 4/11 you were buying on a day with a nice increase in volume and on a breakout from a base, so that was correct (well, correct if the base was longer). Probably the main problem with this was just the Market (M), nothing is going to work right now, you need to just sit for a while until this market gets back on its feet. One other thought - SHFL is a 12 dollar stock, which is right at the bottom end of the price range for canslim stocks. I think you'll find more quality in the higher priced stocks. Even if you can't buy a round number of shares, I think it is still better to pick up fewer shares of a higher priced stock. As far as information, Quotes Plus is great if you don't already use it, the new version has added an EPS rank, it has a RS ranking too, you can scan using these criteria, so its nearly like having the IBD database on your computer, although the QP numbers are going to vary slightly from the IBDs, since their calculations use proprietary formulas. - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Dan Sutton" Subject: [CANSLIM] My opinion (for what it's worth) Date: 15 Apr 2000 06:43:11 -0600 I work for a great company whose stock price was pounded mercilessly back in January and February. It was interesting to see the price plunge and try to guess when it would stop(mainly because I was not heavily exposed to the carnage). My opinion was that the majority of the action was caused by employees who had been given stock options,were getting margin calls and had to sell to cover the call. This forced the price into a free fall because the sellers far outweighed the buyers. Once the pressure eased on margin calls, the stock rebounded nicely. As I sit here looking at yesterday's bloodbath, it seems to me that the situation was similar to what happened to my company's stock in January. As more and more people owning the tech stocks got margin calls, they were forced to raise cash quickly. As they attempted to raise cash, fewer and fewer people wanted to buy...so the prices went into a downward spiral sucking anything close downward with it. I think that when these investors saw the blood running on the techs, they turned to Dow stocks in an attempt to sell stocks with more potential of having smaller losses. After investors have a chance to assess what happened to them yesterday, I think Monday (certainly in the morning)will be extremely volatile as well. More of the weak stocks will be dumped as people see how close they are to getting a margin call. But then the elephants will jump back into the tub. Money managers and individual investors will climb all over companies that are making money. The high quality companies (including techs)that have good fundamentals and good trends will begin to claw their way of the quagmire. Mutual fund managers cannot afford to sit on the sideline when prices start to rebound. If you are holding good quality stocks, review the reasons that you bought them. If you would still buy them, Monday should be a good opportunity to pick up more shares at a good price. Reassess the stocks that you have been watching, this should be a great buying opportunity. - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Werner Vandewiele Subject: [CANSLIM] TOM Date: 15 Apr 2000 15:05:46 +0200 Professor, ** Two questions for you: ++ Did you seen this correction comming a month or so ago? ++ Why? Regards, <<< Werner Vandewiele >>> - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: owner-canslim@xmission.com (Jeff Salisbury) Subject: [CANSLIM] Changing your canslim subscription Date: 15 Apr 2000 08:00:01 -0600 This is a twice monthly posting to the CANLSLIM group. Frequently, people sign up for the canslim list and then are overwhelmed by the volume of the email. There are three remedies for this problem: 1) You can leave our group. 2) you can switch to the digest version which "conglomerates" many canslim messages into one large message. Or, 3) You can setup customized filters on your own mail client to sort the incoming canslim messages to its own folder. If you wish to modify your canslim subscription, email a message to: majordomo@xmission.com The remove yourself from the canslim list, write in the body of the email: unsubscribe canslim To add yourself to the digest version of the canslim list, write in the body of the email: subscribe canslim-digest For general help with majordomo commands, write in the body of the email: help If you need further clarification, write me directly at: canslim-owner@lists.xmission.com Best Regards, Jeff Salisbury - CANSLIM list admin / owner - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: My view of "M" (was Re: [CANSLIM] TOM) Date: 15 Apr 2000 10:12:17 -0400 Heck, I've seen this correction coming for over a year, it just took a lot longer than I expected to get here! Why? - overvaluation, speculative fever hitting extreme levels, too many novices chasing an aging bull, disregard for rising interest rates, rising margin debt (another record), consumers overspending their income and income increases, ridiculously low savings rates, speculative fever (yeah, I know, I mentioned it already), overvaluation (you likely get my drift). Did I see it coming to this severe of a level? Not at all, tho over the past week had been pointing out to colleagues that Nasdaq support doesn't kick in till the 2800 level. Am I panicked? No, in fact finally filled another buy limit on Friday just as I was about to raise my limit since even "M" didn't seem able to bring the stock back to its base. I have one more buy to fill, which I will do by selling part of another position that held up well this past week, primarily due having tanked several weeks before on an earnings warning. I am 100% invested in both my IRA and 401, tho wouldn't be if I could have seen the severity of the slide. Had I gone to cash when I should, I would be easing back in by now, starting probably sometime last week. But for CANSLIM members, remember I am a risk taker, as well as an experienced investor of over 40 years. Frankly, most investors should be off margin, if not out of the market entirely, before last week. Why am I not worried? I am long term, and am confident in Mr. Greenspan's skills in cooling off this excessive spending habit we have; the overall strength of the economy; a recovering world economy; the performance of my small/micro cap portfolio (which is loaded with strong earnings) but also the performance of my 401 which is only mid and large cap stocks and held up much better than mkt averages; and overall earnings growth. I am also most encouraged by the state of developing technology, which is far faster than ever seen. This is contributing to the volatility, both by the sharing of information and access to online trading, but also by the rapidity by which technology becomes obsolete. This dramatically affects companies that do not keep pace, but were high flyers just a year or two ago because of their one or two innovative products. You only had to watch the values given to many, if not most, IPOs with no earnings and minimal sales and little but a story to sell to see the speculative fever. I now expect to see a lot of IPOs pulled off the market for a few months unless we have a sharp and fast recovery (which I am not really expecting either). Assuming we don't have too many landmines in this earnings cycle (and so far it looks very strong), I would expect to see money returning to stocks over the next several weeks. Because of the time compression we have seen over the past several years (again, a reflection of information technology and the availability of information and communication on the internet), I do not expect this "correction in a bull market" to last long, certainly not 6 months or more, most likely 6 weeks or less. Nor do I consider us to be in a traditional bear market, as the economics have not changed, only stock prices. And if you step back and look at the bigger picture, despite the record plunges this past week on all indexes, it only takes us back to pricing levels of last Oct/Nov, still well ahead for a one year picture. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html ----- Original Message ----- Sent: Saturday, April 15, 2000 9:05 AM Professor, ** Two questions for you: ++ Did you seen this correction comming a month or so ago? ++ Why? Regards, <<< Werner Vandewiele >>> - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Surindra Singh Subject: Thoughts from Bill Gates was: [CANSLIM] TOM Date: 15 Apr 2000 10:25:27 -0400 Thoughts from Bill Gates In Bill Gates' book (Business @ The Speed of Thought), he lays out 11 rules that students do not learn in high school or college. He argues that our feel good, politically correct teachings have created a generation of kids with no concept of reality who are set up for failure in the real world. RULE 1 - Life is not fair; get used to it. RULE 2 - The world won't care about your self-esteem. The world will expect you to accomplish something BEFORE you feel good about yourself. RULE 3 - You will NOT make 40 thousand dollars a year right out of high school. You won't be a vice president with a car phone, until you earn both. RULE 4 - If you think your teacher is tough, wait till you get a boss. He doesn't have tenure. RULE 5 - Flipping burgers is not beneath your dignity. Your grandparents had a different word for burger flipping; they called it opportunity. RULE 6 - If you mess up, it's not your parents' fault, so don't whine about your mistakes, learn from them. RULE 7 - Before you were born, your parents weren't as boring as they are now. They got that way from paying your bills, cleaning your clothes and listening to you talk about how cool you are. So before you save the rain forest from the parasites of your parents' generation, try "delousing" the closet in your own room. RULE 8 - Your school may have done away with winners and losers, but life has not. In some schools they have abolished failing grades; they'll give you as many times as you want to get the right answer. This doesn't bear the slightest resemblance to ANYTHING in real life. RULE 9 - Life is not divided into semesters. You don't get summers off and very few employers are interested in helping you find yourself. Do that on your own time! RULE 10 - Television is NOT real life. In real life people actually have to leave the coffee shop and go to jobs. RULE 11 - Be nice to nerds. Chances are you'll end up working for one. -----Original Message----- [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of Werner Vandewiele Sent: Saturday, April 15, 2000 9:06 AM Professor, ** Two questions for you: ++ Did you seen this correction comming a month or so ago? ++ Why? Regards, <<< Werner Vandewiele >>> - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Earl Setser Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Re: When and what to buy? Date: 15 Apr 2000 09:44:28 -0600 How closely do the QP numbers match the IBD numbers? Have you done many comparisons.? At 11:39 PM 4/14/00 -0600, you wrote: > >As far as information, Quotes Plus is great if you don't already use >it, the new version has added an EPS rank, it has a RS ranking >too, you can scan using these criteria, so its nearly like having the >IBD database on your computer, although the QP numbers are >going to vary slightly from the IBDs, since their calculations use >proprietary formulas. > >- > > > - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Mhboatman@aol.com Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Re: When and what to buy? Date: 15 Apr 2000 13:01:07 EDT In a message dated 4/15/00 10:41:23 AM Central Daylight Time, esetser@csolutions.net writes: << Quotes Plus >> What is the address of << Quotes Plus >>? http://quotesplus.com -- does not work for me! - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Earl Setser Subject: [CANSLIM] IGP Rank and other ramblings Date: 15 Apr 2000 11:06:41 -0600 Here are the top 40 Industry Groups on a YTD basis. I am using YTD to take out some of the extreme price runups in Nov/Dec. These still include the spikes we had before the correction/bear, but these give an overall summary that includes the run Up as well as the run Down. Note that there are several groups in the IBD top 40 (6 months) with DISMAL YTD performance. For example, Computer-Local Networks is ranked 12, but is off 34.2% YTD, and Internet-Ntwk Sec/Sltns is ranked 22nd but is off 36.2% YTD. Oil&Gas-Machinery/Equip Medical-Generic Drugs Oil&Gas-Drilling Oil&Gas-U S Explo&Prod Elec-Semiconductor Equip Oil&Gas-Field Services Oil&Gas-Prod/Pipeline Elec-Measrng Instruments Elec-Parts Distributors Elec-Scientific Instrumn Elec-Semiconductor Mfg Medical-Products Medical-Hospitals Bldg-Heavy Const Real Estate Operations Oil&Gas-Intl Specialty Medical-Ethical Drugs Machinery-MtlHdlg/Autmn Oil&Gas-Cdn Explo&Prod Electrical-Equipment Food-Dairy Products Electrical-Connectors Elec-Laser Sys/Component Retail-Discount&Variety Leisure-Photo Equip/Rel Leisure-Products Medical/Dental/Serv Retail/Wholesale-Food Comml Svcs-Schools Oil&Gas-Cdn Integrated Utility-Electric Power Medical-Hlth Maint Org Auto/Truck-Original Eqp Transportation-Ship Banks-Money Center Finance-Investment Mgmt Utility-Gas Distribution Computer-Graphics Computer-Memory Devices Electrical-Control Instr And while I'm here, I thought I would share a few other thoughts/observations: 1 - Yesterday's action looks like a possible blow-off bottom. This was the greatest 1 day percentage loss in the NASDAQ except for Black Monday, and was on the 2nd largest volume ever. 2 - Interestingly enough, the Put to Call ratio has finally spiked up. It stands at 0.88 after being mostly below 0.5 and always below 0.6 since October. IBD says that it typically needs to get over 1 to help trigger a market reversal. 3 - In today's Big Picture, IBD discussed that this might be the bottom, but then followed it up with: "But the market loves tricking investors, so don't even bother trying to guess the exact bottom. Just realize it will inevitably recover, as it always has." They went on to say to wait for a FT day, and "Even then, patience would be warranted. Leading stocks are severely damaged. It would take several weeks before they complete sound bases and break out to new highs, the ultimate proof of a new bull market." 4 - I'm thinking I'm sticking with the IBD on this one. I'm looking for interesting industries (probably not Oil&Gas for me) that have performed well since 1/1, and then looking for stocks that have held up well enough that they are working on either new highs or cup with handles in the top 50% of the base. I'm hoping for 7 week bases, but I am unwilling to buy anything less than 4 weeks after getting burned on that last FT day fake-out. I may buy into one or two positions after a FT day, but I am going to wade back in slowly. 5 - My performance took a hit after I jumped in after an FT day a few weeks back. I ended up taking a 11% or so hit (on average) on those purchases, and reduced my YTD gains on CANSLIM to about 19%. I should have gotten out quicker initially, and been more hesistant to jump back in, but I'm just chalking it up to another CANSLIM lesson. On the other hand, my mutual funds were up also as much as my CANSLIM for the year at the high, and they seemed to hold out a little better on the way down. However, I have stayed fully invested in my funds, and I've really taken a hit there. At this point, I am down for the year for all 6 Mutual Funds. These are pretty aggressive funds in general, so I'm hopeful they will roar back when things get better. I've decided to stick with my fund/CANSLIM allocation for now, but I must say that sitting out the last couple of weeks has been very satisfying for my CANSLIM funds. I'm not willing to increase my present percentages yet since I've still been doing this less than a year. However, it's looking more and more like this approach may be something I want to put the majority of my investments in. 6 - I want to thank Tom for the data he sent out on DGO. It looks like the data they have there could be imported into Excel and give me what I am doing now manually. I think I may wait to see what the IBD webpage upgrade will bring, but it's likely I'll add a DGO subscription to my investment data during the next few months. - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: [CANSLIM] DGO List - part 1 Date: 15 Apr 2000 13:30:34 -0400 First, we should observe a moment of silence in honor of the trillions of capital lost in the US markets, and other markets, this past week . . . . . . . Good, now that we got that out of the way, let's get back to finding stocks that can make us money, regardless of whether we were smart enough to go to cash a few weeks ago (I wasn't), or are still fully invested (I am). The list, interestingly enough (maybe a contrarian indicator?) actually has more stocks on it this week than last; 99 vs 71. Prior to that it was 100, 86 and 129, so 99 actually looks pretty strong. Remember, "Bx" is my shorthand for "Base - x number of weeks" (and here's hoping I can find some bases!) And remember, I am only looking at recent chart patterns, not doing a full due diligence for anyone. Remember also that this list is a review of the full list at DGO, comprising stocks that are in the DG books; have RS and also EPS of 80 or better as of Friday; and were within 5% of, or at, their high during the prior week. As a cautionary comment, I would encourage all members, unless you are a serious risk taker and prepared to put a meaningful part of your capital at stake, to not attempt purchases on the opening on Monday. I expect it to be volatile, even by current standards. It may prove to be one of the best "blue light specials" in a long time, but it certainly is not CANSLIM. ANEN - found support AMK - back to the base (good argument for buying in the base) PWR - found one, a pretty respectable B3 GIL - whoa, a range bound B8! NBTY - 4th failed breakout and return to a base HH - nice B2, been mentioned in this group many times ASF - held up, back to the base, getting tired?? PWER - gave up a week of gains, back to its sloppy base SGR - correction? what correction?? ASGN - back to its former base INSUA - correction? no stopping this one CHP - with a litle recovery, will be back into a B3 APCC - same DGX - new high on Friday on 3X volume, need I say more, broke out from B1 PCCC - interesting chart, esp over the past 3 mos or so, and earnings/sales growth FII - smooth chart NATI - held up well till Friday, nice B5 ADBE - total capitulation? DFXI - got possibilities AAON - B1, b/o failed COO - B1+ until Friday WDR - B2 until Friday USTR - small recovery takes it back into B3, off its lows nicely NDN - B4 VSH - B4+ SHOO - B3 SKYW - back to B1 AC-back to B1 Part 2 to follow in a few hours or so Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Surindra Singh Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] Re: When and what to buy? Date: 15 Apr 2000 13:54:29 -0400 -----Original Message----- [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of Mhboatman@aol.com Sent: Saturday, April 15, 2000 1:01 PM In a message dated 4/15/00 10:41:23 AM Central Daylight Time, esetser@csolutions.net writes: << Quotes Plus >> What is the address of << Quotes Plus >>? http://quotesplus.com -- does not work for me! - Try quoteminus then ;-) - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Rich Ralph" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Re: When and what to buy? Date: 15 Apr 2000 14:44:47 -0400 www.qp2.com - great service, the best IMHO. Good Trading, _| _| _| _| _| _| _| _| _| _| _| _| _| _| Rich Ralph _| GO WINGS! GO STATE! ----- Original Message ----- Sent: Saturday, April 15, 2000 1:01 PM > In a message dated 4/15/00 10:41:23 AM Central Daylight Time, > esetser@csolutions.net writes: > > << Quotes Plus >> > What is the address of << Quotes Plus >>? > > http://quotesplus.com -- does not work for me! > > - > > - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Patrick Wahl" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Re: When and what to buy? Date: 15 Apr 2000 13:39:00 -0600 Hmm, the site I have bookmarked is - http://www.quotes-plus.com/ Guess they are the same place. On 15 Apr 00, at 14:44, Rich Ralph wrote: > www.qp2.com - great service, the best IMHO. > > Good Trading, > > _| _| _| _| _| _| _| _| _| _| _| _| _| > _| Rich Ralph > _| GO WINGS! GO STATE! > > > ----- Original Message ----- > From: > To: > Sent: Saturday, April 15, 2000 1:01 PM > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Re: When and what to buy? > > > > In a message dated 4/15/00 10:41:23 AM Central Daylight Time, > > esetser@csolutions.net writes: > > > > << Quotes Plus >> > > What is the address of << Quotes Plus >>? > > > > http://quotesplus.com -- does not work for me! > > > > - > > > > > > > - > - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Patrick Wahl" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Re: When and what to buy? Date: 15 Apr 2000 14:00:23 -0600 On 15 Apr 00, at 9:44, Earl Setser wrote: > How closely do the QP numbers match the IBD numbers? Have you done many > comparisons.? > I haven't really done a compare, although just now I checked a few stocks, they seem close to what I found in the IBD. If you are interested, I ran a quick scan of high EPS and high RS stocks, below is the scan and the list this scan produced. I think the scan language is pretty self explanatory, most of the stocks are familiar names, so its in the IBD ball park anyway. QP also gives you lots of fundamental information, like last 20 or so quarters of earnings and sales, EPS estimates, shares outstanding, ROE, etc, so you can check a company's growth by looking at its recent sales and earning history. Exchange = NASDAQ; if ( epsrank(0) > 97and QRS(0) > 90 and AvgVol(0,-29)>= 100000 and // 100,000 shares average // volume Close(0)>= 20 ) then // At least a 20 dollar stock println symbol , "," , Description; endif; AREM,AREMISSOFT CORP DEL COM ARTC,ARTHROCARE CORP COM BOBJ,BUSINESS OBJECTS S A ADR SPONSORED BRCM,BROADCOM CORP COM BVSN,BROADVISION INC COM CREE,CREE INC COM CYTC,CYTYC CORP COM DITC,DITECH COMMUNICATIONS CORP COM ETEK,E-TEK DYNAMICS INC COM HOTT,HOT TOPIC INC COM INSP,INFOSPACE INC COM ISSX,ISS GROUP INC OC-COM JDSU,JDS UNIPHASE CORP COM MRCY,MERCURY COMPUTER SYS INC COM NSOL,NETWORK SOLUTIONS INC DEL COM NYFX,NYFIX INC COM PCOP,PHARMACOPEIA INC COM PLMD,POLYMEDICA INDS INC COM QCOM,QUALCOMM INC COM QLGC,QLOGIC CORP COM RIMM,RESEARCH IN MOTION LTD COM SEBL,SIEBEL SYS INC COM TXCC,TRANSWITCH CORP COM VRSN,VERISIGN INC COM VRTS,VERITAS SOFTWARE CO COM > At 11:39 PM 4/14/00 -0600, you wrote: > > > >As far as information, Quotes Plus is great if you don't already use > >it, the new version has added an EPS rank, it has a RS ranking > >too, you can scan using these criteria, so its nearly like having the > >IBD database on your computer, although the QP numbers are > >going to vary slightly from the IBDs, since their calculations use > >proprietary formulas. > > > >- > > > > > > > > > - > - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: [CANSLIM] DGO List - Part 2 Date: 15 Apr 2000 19:57:23 -0400 AZZ - still above a nice tight B4 RHB - second breakout attempt from $25, strong support there PAYX - possible LLUR RARE - B1 AXE - B3 EQT - B2+ GNWR - B2, up on 1.5X ADV on Friday FLM - at bottom of B7 DBRN - B1 CGP - B2+ REMX - range bound for over three months CACI - back to B6 on light volume AD - holding a B10 Happy hunting, Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: jeff.salisbury@xmission.com Date: 16 Apr 2000 06:15:18 -0600 (EDT) Message-ID: <17.4496c5d.262a9118@aol.com> MIME-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: multipart/mixed; boundary="part1_17.4496c5d.262a9118_boundary" X-Mailer: AOL 5.0 for Windows sub 104 --part1_17.4496c5d.262a9118_boundary Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII" Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit Hi, Hopfully I have attached a file which I have been compiling weekly since last October. The stocks in the list must have a EPS rank of 96, a RPS rank of 86 plus a IBD rating of "AAA" to make the list. Many stocks on this list have fallen to the "AAB" rating. This is based on Fridays paper using Thursdays Data. I sum the EPS and RPS plus add points for various criteria such as new CEO, IPO, Options. The higher the number rank the better I like the stock. I have included the fund rank, group and PE. I use Microsoft Access to store the data in SQL tables and combine the data for the report. I use this technique just to generate a potential buy list. I was going crazy for a while trying to chase every stock in the paper. Stephen Kutney --part1_17.4496c5d.262a9118_boundary Content-Type: text/plain; name="Sel1wk.txt" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable Content-Disposition: inline; filename="Sel1wk.txt" 4/14/00 0:00:00,212.00,"AMCC","Appld Micr Cir","ELEC-SEMI MFG",92.00,99,"= B" 4/14/00 0:00:00,212.00,"TLGD","TollgradCm","TELCOM-EQUIP",64.00,46,"C" 4/14/00 0:00:00,210.00,"TQNT","TriquintSemi","ELEC SEMI-MFG",69.00,99,"B" 4/14/00 0:00:00,208.00,"CHKP","CheckPtStwr","COMP-SOFT SEC",167.00,99,"B" 4/14/00 0:00:00,208.00,"ZOMX","ZOMAX","HOUSEHLD-AUD/VID",55.00,30,"C" 4/14/00 0:00:00,207.00,"QLGC","Qlogic","ELEC-SEMI MFG",73.00,99,"B" 4/14/00 0:00:00,205.00,"MNMD","MiniMed","MED-PROD",117.25,0, 4/14/00 0:00:00,204.00,"PWAV","Powerwave","ELEC PROD-MISC",113.60,42,"B" 4/14/00 0:00:00,202.00,"SRNA","Serena Stfw","COMP SOFT-ENT",22.25,88,"B" 4/14/00 0:00:00,201.00,"QCOM","QualComm","TELCOM-EQUIP",126.60,99,"B" 4/14/00 0:00:00,201.00,"PWR","Quanta Svcs","TELCOM-SERV",40.25,38,"B" 4/14/00 0:00:00,199.00,"PLMD","Polymedica","MED-PRODUCTS",50.00,29,"C" 4/14/00 0:00:00,199.00,"CTXS","Citrix Sys","COMP SOFT-ENT",60.00,99,"B" 4/14/00 0:00:00,199.00,"DY","Dycom","BLDG-HVY CONST",60.20,0, 4/14/00 0:00:00,198.00,"CTSH","Cogniznt Tec","COMP-SERV",43.00,83,"B" 4/14/00 0:00:00,198.00,"BBRC","Burr Brown","ELEC SEMI-MFG",56.00,73,"B" 4/14/00 0:00:00,198.00,"RMD","Resmed","new issue",29.10,54,"B" 4/14/00 0:00:00,195.00,"CHP","C&D Technolg","ELEC PROD-MISC",56.50,0, 4/14/00 0:00:00,194.00,"TTIL","TTI TeamTel","COMP SOFT-ENT",21.00,47,"B" 4/14/00 0:00:00,193.00,"TNL","Technitirol","ELEC PROD-MISC",52.50,21,"C" 4/14/00 0:00:00,192.00,"ANEN","Anaren","TELCOM-EQUIP",98.50,95,"B" 4/14/00 0:00:00,192.00,"VTSS","Vitesse Semi","ELEC-SEMI MFG",67.00,99,"A" 4/14/00 0:00:00,191.00,"NASI","NorthAmer Sc","CHEM-SPEC",15.00,49,"B" 4/14/00 0:00:00,187.00,"BVF","Biovail Intl","MED-DRUGS",48.00,52,"B" --part1_17.4496c5d.262a9118_boundary-- - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: [CANSLIM] Early indications Date: 16 Apr 2000 19:34:10 -0400 So far, looks like we may have the expected gap down on Monday's open. S&P500 futures down over 1%; Naz futures down almost 3%; New Zealand opening down 3.7% Will be interesting to see how these numbers change over the next 12 hours or so. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: [CANSLIM] Red Ink in Asia Date: 16 Apr 2000 20:41:12 -0400 New Zealand now down over 5%, Australia down 5.6%, Japan down 4.7% (blew right thru 20,000) And these are the openings, as they play catch up to the fall in the US markets on Friday. I am glad at least we didn't have this hanging over us all weekend, with no way to do anything about it. It will be some hours yet before we see if Asia provides a buffer, and more hours after that as Europe opens, and also adjusts. Only then will we begin to get any real picture of what Wall St may look like on Monday. Keep your powder dry! Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Surindra Singh Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] Early indications Date: 16 Apr 2000 21:33:01 -0400 It is going to be fun. Money will be lost and made in the coming days. Depends on your luck more than any thing else. Good luck canslimmers. Surindra Singh -----Original Message----- [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of Tom Worley Sent: Sunday, April 16, 2000 7:34 PM So far, looks like we may have the expected gap down on Monday's open. S&P500 futures down over 1%; Naz futures down almost 3%; New Zealand opening down 3.7% Will be interesting to see how these numbers change over the next 12 hours or so. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: [CANSLIM] Friday's tidal wave of selling Date: 17 Apr 2000 04:37:32 -0400 The declines continue to ripple around the globe, now impacting Europe, tho not with the same intensity. Asia mostly closed at its lows, however Japan managed to climb back over 19,000 to close down 6.98%. Interestingly, Taiwan managed to close UP 1.4%. S.Korea won the prize, down 11.6%, followed by Singapore at minus 8.7%. In Europe, the declines are not as severe, mostly in the 3.5% range, and look to have recovered slightly from the opening lows, and still moving up. Futures have also improved, S&P500 down only 0.6% and Naz down 1.4%. Five hours to countdown on Wall St. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: [CANSLIM] Oh well! Date: 17 Apr 2000 07:03:05 -0400 For a time, it looked like Europe might recover, and we might have a flat opening. Naz futures were down only slightly more than 1%, and the S&P500 was nearly even. Most European exchanges were retreating from the lows of the day, and down in the 2% range. Now it looks like Europe is again sliding towards the lows of the day, same thing the USA markets did late on Friday, finishing with heavy selling. Hopefully this will not be repeated. Naz futures now down 1.5% with the S&P500 following. One bright spot for techs and biotechs - Israel has held up well, been trading flat to slightly up since it's open. And there are a number of Israeli stocks that trade Nasdaq. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Surindra Singh Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] Oh well! Date: 17 Apr 2000 07:45:47 -0400 Good Morning Tom: Just to mention that Taiwan and Israel were up after significant slide over the weekend. I think Taiwan is open on Saturdays and Israel is open on Sundays. Good Trading. Surindra -----Original Message----- [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of Tom Worley Sent: Monday, April 17, 2000 7:03 AM For a time, it looked like Europe might recover, and we might have a flat opening. Naz futures were down only slightly more than 1%, and the S&P500 was nearly even. Most European exchanges were retreating from the lows of the day, and down in the 2% range. Now it looks like Europe is again sliding towards the lows of the day, same thing the USA markets did late on Friday, finishing with heavy selling. Hopefully this will not be repeated. Naz futures now down 1.5% with the S&P500 following. One bright spot for techs and biotechs - Israel has held up well, been trading flat to slightly up since it's open. And there are a number of Israeli stocks that trade Nasdaq. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Surindra Singh Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] Oh well! Date: 17 Apr 2000 07:48:01 -0400 Good Morning Tom: Just to mention that Taiwan and Israel were up after significant slide over the weekend. I think Taiwan is open on Saturdays and Israel is open on Sundays. Good Trading. Surindra -----Original Message----- [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of Tom Worley Sent: Monday, April 17, 2000 7:03 AM For a time, it looked like Europe might recover, and we might have a flat opening. Naz futures were down only slightly more than 1%, and the S&P500 was nearly even. Most European exchanges were retreating from the lows of the day, and down in the 2% range. Now it looks like Europe is again sliding towards the lows of the day, same thing the USA markets did late on Friday, finishing with heavy selling. Hopefully this will not be repeated. Naz futures now down 1.5% with the S&P500 following. One bright spot for techs and biotechs - Israel has held up well, been trading flat to slightly up since it's open. And there are a number of Israeli stocks that trade Nasdaq. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: [CANSLIM] A reversal, can it last? Date: 17 Apr 2000 07:51:41 -0400 Once again, the Naz and S&P500 futures have reversed, Naz now only down half a percent, S&P nearly even. Europe has not shown a meaningful recovery over the past hour, tho, so not sure if this will be sustainable into our opening. Can I turn in my "A" ticket for one on the kiddie roller coaster instead? Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: [CANSLIM] Rally? Date: 17 Apr 2000 08:03:24 -0400 Europe now again recovering, tho still down across the board. S&P500 futures slightly positive, and Naz futures up almost a full percent. Hummm, gonna be an interesting day. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Mark Brown" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Rally? Date: 17 Apr 2000 07:57:24 -0500 Hello Tom, Monday, April 17, 2000, 7:03:24 AM, you wrote: I think that there are a few scenarios that might play out. The first one (that I think most likely) is that the sp's will rally this morning and then in the evening near the bond close plummet back down and make lows lower than fridays. The key to this move would be if the futures trade off their low before the close by 10 or so points. Then I would take it as that was it - its over. The other scenarios is that we get the rally and it never looks back, being that the final clean out happened last night. The other is we continue to go down. If we do the numbers will be 1300 then 1200. I would personally buy there using options not futures. Mark TW> Europe now again recovering, tho still down across the board. TW> S&P500 futures slightly positive, and Naz futures up almost a TW> full percent. Hummm, gonna be an interesting day. TW> Tom Worley TW> stkguru@netside.net TW> chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 TW> get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html TW> - -- Best regards, Mark Brown mailto:markbrown@markbrown.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Walter Stock Subject: [CANSLIM] State of "M" Date: 17 Apr 2000 21:32:22 -0400 Reading through some of the recent posts from our group, I am convinced that many of us look for too many complications. I went to 100% cash over a month ago, before any of this recent mess started. I give the credit to WON and some simple Canslim rules: 1) Leadership stocks started breaking down. Especially bad in biotechs and internets. 2) Market suffered distribution starting early in March. I make a note of these on my charts every day that they happen. Marder in today's' article at TradingMarkets.com counts ten of them (...that's right 10 ) since March 3 on the Nasdaq. How many do we need before we go to cash? Also many distribution days on the S&P and the Dow. 3) Bull sentiment stratospheric in the weekly IBD printout of the Investor's Intelligence numbers (and also on this board). Put/call ratios showed unflappable complacency if not somnolence. Number 1 above got me out. Numbers 2 & 3 kept me out. This is basic Canslim stuff. It worked just as well for me last summer and fall, and also in the fall of '98. No need to worry about reading Greenspan's tea leaves, or what Abby Joseph Cohen said to analysts, or what the airheads on CNBC are pumping. I am not going to talk about what I had been shorting. Just following the Canslim rules got you out, or at the very least off margin back in March. Sorry if this post offends anyone. That is not the reason I wrote it. I just think some of the basics need pointing out, and how following them closely keeps you out of the herd and out of trouble. Understanding this is especially important for the many newbies on our board. Walter Stock Oakville, ON, Canada - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Robert Subject: [CANSLIM] Acc/Dis Numbers Date: 17 Apr 2000 22:12:04 -0400 Here are the latest Acc/Dis Numbers: Date A B C D E AB/A:E %E 03/31/00 1553 2860 1206 952 393 63% 6% 04/03/00 1390 2892 1279 942 424 62% 6% 04/04/00 1470 2864 1247 924 417 63% 6% 04/05/00 1388 2872 1258 973 405 62% 6% 04/06/00 1077 2904 1320 1086 439 58% 6% 04/07/00 1092 2923 1338 1058 410 59% 6% 04/10/00 1143 2979 1338 999 391 60% 6% 04/11/00 1177 2996 1342 999 367 61% 5% 04/12/00 1112 2973 1357 1021 384 60% 6% 04/13/00 1089 2908 1364 1048 397 59% 6% 04/14/00 1033 2822 1358 1070 442 57% 7% 04/17/00 954 2742 1381 1125 479 55% 7% Spread Sheet version: Date,A,B,C,D,E,AB/A:E,%E 03/31/00,1553,2860,1206,952,393,63%,6% 04/03/00,1390,2892,1279,942,424,62%,6% 04/04/00,1470,2864,1247,924,417,63%,6% 04/05/00,1388,2872,1258,973,405,62%,6% 04/06/00,1077,2904,1320,1086,439,58%,6% 04/07/00,1092,2923,1338,1058,410,59%,6% 04/10/00,1143,2979,1338,999,391,60%,6% 04/11/00,1177,2996,1342,999,367,61%,5% 04/12/00,1112,2973,1357,1021,384,60%,6% 04/13/00,1089,2908,1364,1048,397,59%,6% 04/14/00,1033,2822,1358,1070,442,57%,7% 04/17/00,954,2742,1381,1125,479,55%,7% Robert __________________________________________________ Do You Yahoo!? Talk to your friends online with Yahoo! Messenger. http://im.yahoo.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Anthony DiLella Subject: [CANSLIM] State of "M" Date: 17 Apr 2000 19:30:14 -0700 (PDT) Walter, if anything your post made me upset with myself. I should have seen it coming. I hope I can also recognize the signals before the next collapse. (Or hopefully read your post predicting the next one) Reading through some of the recent posts from our group, I am convinced that many of us look for too many complications. I went to 100% cash over a month ago, before any of this recent mess started. I give the credit to WON and some simple Canslim rules: 1) Leadership stocks started breaking down. Especially bad in biotechs and internets. 2) Market suffered distribution starting early in March. I make a note of these on my charts every day that they happen. Marder in today's' article at TradingMarkets.com counts ten of them (...that's right 10 ) since March 3 on the Nasdaq. How many do we need before we go to cash? Also many distribution days on the S&P and the Dow. 3) Bull sentiment stratospheric in the weekly IBD printout of the Investor's Intelligence numbers (and also on this board). Put/call ratios showed unflappable complacency if not somnolence. Number 1 above got me out. Numbers 2 & 3 kept me out. This is basic Canslim stuff. It worked just as well for me last summer and fall, and also in the fall of '98. No need to worry about reading Greenspan's tea leaves, or what Abby Joseph Cohen said to analysts, or what the airheads on CNBC are pumping. I am not going to talk about what I had been shorting. Just following the Canslim rules got you out, or at the very least off margin back in March. Sorry if this post offends anyone. That is not the reason I wrote it. I just think some of the basics need pointing out, and how following them closely keeps you out of the herd and out of trouble. Understanding this is especially important for the many newbies on our board. Walter Stock Oakville, ON, Canada __________________________________________________ Do You Yahoo!? Send online invitations with Yahoo! Invites. http://invites.yahoo.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Anthony DiLella Subject: [CANSLIM] State of "M" Date: 17 Apr 2000 19:30:45 -0700 (PDT) Walter, if anything your post made me upset with myself. I should have seen it coming. I hope I can also recognize the signals before the next collapse. (Or hopefully read your post predicting the next one) Tony D. Reading through some of the recent posts from our group, I am convinced that many of us look for too many complications. I went to 100% cash over a month ago, before any of this recent mess started. I give the credit to WON and some simple Canslim rules: 1) Leadership stocks started breaking down. Especially bad in biotechs and internets. 2) Market suffered distribution starting early in March. I make a note of these on my charts every day that they happen. Marder in today's' article at TradingMarkets.com counts ten of them (...that's right 10 ) since March 3 on the Nasdaq. How many do we need before we go to cash? Also many distribution days on the S&P and the Dow. 3) Bull sentiment stratospheric in the weekly IBD printout of the Investor's Intelligence numbers (and also on this board). Put/call ratios showed unflappable complacency if not somnolence. Number 1 above got me out. Numbers 2 & 3 kept me out. This is basic Canslim stuff. It worked just as well for me last summer and fall, and also in the fall of '98. No need to worry about reading Greenspan's tea leaves, or what Abby Joseph Cohen said to analysts, or what the airheads on CNBC are pumping. I am not going to talk about what I had been shorting. Just following the Canslim rules got you out, or at the very least off margin back in March. Sorry if this post offends anyone. That is not the reason I wrote it. I just think some of the basics need pointing out, and how following them closely keeps you out of the herd and out of trouble. Understanding this is especially important for the many newbies on our board. Walter Stock Oakville, ON, Canada __________________________________________________ Do You Yahoo!? Send online invitations with Yahoo! Invites. http://invites.yahoo.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: drd@2020.com (Dr. DiGirolamo) Subject: [CANSLIM] Re: canslim-digest V2 #877 Date: 17 Apr 2000 21:55:59 -0400 --=====================_52408359==_.ALT Content-Type: text/plain; charset="us-ascii"; format=flowed Gosh Walt, I commend you for the astuteness of your perception, as well as your follow through. One suggestion please; next time, will you post your insights BEFORE the market plummets, instead of AFTERWARDS? Hindsight is always 20/20. :) Dr. Mike Di Girolamo DrD@2020.com Charlottesville, VA 22901 At 09:31 PM 04/17/2000 , you wrote: >I give the credit to WON and some simple Canslim rules: > >1) Leadership stocks started breaking down. >Especially bad in biotechs and internets. > >2) Market suffered distribution starting early in March. >I make a note of these on my charts every day that they happen. >Marder in today's' article at TradingMarkets.com counts ten >of them (...that's right 10 ) since March 3 on the Nasdaq. >How many do we need before we go to cash? >Also many distribution days on the S&P and the Dow. > >3) Bull sentiment stratospheric in the weekly IBD printout of >the Investor's Intelligence numbers (and also on this board). >Put/call ratios showed unflappable complacency if not >somnolence. > >Number 1 above got me out. Numbers 2 & 3 kept me out. >This is basic Canslim stuff. It worked just as well for me last >summer and fall, and also in the fall of '98. > >No need to worry about reading Greenspan's tea leaves, >or what Abby Joseph Cohen said to analysts, or what the >airheads on CNBC are pumping. > >I am not going to talk about what I had been shorting. >Just following the Canslim rules got you out, or at the very >least off margin back in March. > >Sorry if this post offends anyone. That is not the reason I wrote it. >I just think some of the basics need pointing out, and how >following them closely keeps you out of the herd and out of trouble. >Understanding this is especially important for the many newbies >on our board. > >Walter Stock >Oakville, ON, Canada --=====================_52408359==_.ALT Content-Type: text/html; charset="us-ascii" Gosh Walt,

    I commend you for the astuteness of your perception, as well as
your follow through.

     One suggestion please;  next time, will you post your insights
BEFORE the market  plummets, instead of AFTERWARDS? 
 
     Hindsight is always 20/20.   :)

Dr. Mike Di Girolamo
DrD@2020.com
Charlottesville, VA 22901


At 09:31 PM 04/17/2000 , you wrote:

I give the credit to WON and some simple Canslim rules:

1)  Leadership stocks started breaking down.
Especially bad in biotechs and internets.

2)  Market suffered distribution starting early in March.
I make a note of these on my charts every day that they happen.
Marder in today's' article at  TradingMarkets.com counts ten
of them (...that's right 10 ) since March 3 on the Nasdaq.
How many do we need before we go to cash?
Also many distribution days on the S&P and the Dow.

3)  Bull sentiment stratospheric in the weekly IBD printout of
the Investor's Intelligence numbers (and also on this board).
Put/call ratios showed unflappable complacency if not
somnolence.

Number 1 above got me out.  Numbers 2 & 3 kept me out.
This is basic Canslim stuff.  It worked just as well for me last
summer and fall, and also in the fall of  '98.

No need to worry about reading Greenspan's tea leaves,
or what Abby Joseph Cohen said to analysts,  or what the
airheads on CNBC are pumping.

I am not going to talk about what I had been shorting.
Just following the Canslim rules got you out, or at the very
least off margin back in March.

Sorry if this post offends anyone.  That is not the reason I wrote it.
I just think some of the basics need pointing out, and how
following them closely keeps you out of the herd and out of trouble.
Understanding this is especially important for the many newbies
on our board.

Walter Stock
Oakville, ON, Canada
--=====================_52408359==_.ALT-- - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: jeff.salisbury@xmission.com Date: 17 Apr 2000 20:34:27 -0600 (EDT) Message-ID: <38FBECD8.1BE254FE@osu.edu> X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.7 (Macintosh; U; PPC) X-Accept-Language: en MIME-Version: 1.0 References: Content-Type: text/plain; charset=us-ascii; x-mac-type="54455854"; x-mac-creator="4D4F5353" Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit >>>From: Walter Stock Reading through some of the recent posts from our group, I am convinced that many of us look for too many complications. I went to 100% cash over a month ago, before any of this recent mess started. I give the credit to WON and some simple Canslim rules: 1) Leadership stocks started breaking down. Especially bad in biotechs and internets.<<< Walter. In general I agree with your post, however, based on your #1, my stocks [CSCO and DSPG] didn't start breaking down until well LATER than the general market, but as WON and DRYAN say, individual stocks are secondary to watching what you [correctly] pointed out as earlier distribution signs. In my case, I got lazy and stopped reading IBD in the previous weeks because I falsely assumed that the action of my individual stocks would be signal enough. Unfortunately, by the time they told their individual stories, it was too late to save my profits. -Jim--- - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Bill Triffet" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] State of "M" Date: 17 Apr 2000 20:52:35 -0700 Walter, Well put! I've been out for the very same reasons. Once again following IBD's The Big Picture page paid for the subscription many times over. I'm always amazed when folks tell me IBD is expensive. (g) Bill ----- Original Message ----- Sent: Monday, April 17, 2000 6:32 PM > Reading through some of the recent posts from our group, > I am convinced that many of us look for too many complications. > I went to 100% cash over a month ago, before any of this > recent mess started. > > I give the credit to WON and some simple Canslim rules: > > 1) Leadership stocks started breaking down. > Especially bad in biotechs and internets. > > 2) Market suffered distribution starting early in March. > I make a note of these on my charts every day that they happen. > Marder in today's' article at TradingMarkets.com counts ten > of them (...that's right 10 ) since March 3 on the Nasdaq. > How many do we need before we go to cash? > Also many distribution days on the S&P and the Dow. > > 3) Bull sentiment stratospheric in the weekly IBD printout of > the Investor's Intelligence numbers (and also on this board). > Put/call ratios showed unflappable complacency if not > somnolence. > > Number 1 above got me out. Numbers 2 & 3 kept me out. > This is basic Canslim stuff. It worked just as well for me last > summer and fall, and also in the fall of '98. > > No need to worry about reading Greenspan's tea leaves, > or what Abby Joseph Cohen said to analysts, or what the > airheads on CNBC are pumping. > > I am not going to talk about what I had been shorting. > Just following the Canslim rules got you out, or at the very > least off margin back in March. > > Sorry if this post offends anyone. That is not the reason I wrote it. > I just think some of the basics need pointing out, and how > following them closely keeps you out of the herd and out of trouble. > Understanding this is especially important for the many newbies > on our board. > > Walter Stock > Oakville, ON, Canada > > > > > > - > > - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Mary Keener Subject: [CANSLIM] State of M Date: 18 Apr 2000 06:32:33 -0700 Walter, A great post! M is really simple. Follow its trend, see its symptoms and diagnose its health based on CANSLIM parameters. Period. Act with no hesitation, no hopes, no fears. Being a machine would help! And isn't that the problem. Regards, Mary - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Steve Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] State of M Date: 18 Apr 2000 10:49:14 -0700 Today in CBS Marketwatch: "A bear market should not end in a month and a half. It should take four to five months to clear out the excesses," said Bill O'Neil, founder and chairman of Investor's Business Daily. Thus, be ready to see prices whipsaw back and forth as the markets "base" and prepare for their next lasting advance. O'Neil remains bullish for the long term. "Technology and the Internet are here to stay," he said. Once the healthy process of washing out the excesses takes place, he sees a roaring bull market returning in the fall. O'Neil suggests that investors still on margin or fully invested use rallies to decrease their leverage. Steve Grier scgjd@pacbell.net - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Walter Stock Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] State of "M" Date: 18 Apr 2000 17:45:36 -0400 Hello Doctor, I wrote to our group that I was 100% in cash on March 15, again on March 29, and again on April 1. No hindsight involved. :-) Walter "Dr. DiGirolamo" wrote: > Gosh Walt, > > I commend you for the astuteness of your perception, as well as > your follow through. > > One suggestion please; next time, will you post your insights > BEFORE the market plummets, instead of AFTERWARDS? > > Hindsight is always 20/20. :) - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: jeff.salisbury@xmission.com Date: 18 Apr 2000 17:21:13 -0600 (EDT) Message-ID: <38FCD59F.CD5C6BFB@cgocable.net> X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.7 [en] (Win98; U) X-Accept-Language: en,pdf MIME-Version: 1.0 References: <4.2.2.20000417214741.00aec820@cstone.net> Content-Type: text/plain; charset=us-ascii Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit Hello Doctor, I wrote to our group that I was 100% cash on March 15, again on March 29, and again on April 1. No hindsight involved. :-) Walter "Dr. DiGirolamo" wrote: > Gosh Walt, > > I commend you for the astuteness of your perception, as well as > your follow through. > > One suggestion please; next time, will you post your insights > BEFORE the market plummets, instead of AFTERWARDS? > > Hindsight is always 20/20. :) - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: han.26@osu.edu Subject: [CANSLIM] WON speaks Tuesday about M Date: 18 Apr 2000 21:10:28 -0700 A quotation from Quicken.com from WON Tuesday: "A bear market should not end in a month and a half. It should take four to five months to clear out the excesses," said Bill O'Neil, founder and chairman of Investor's Business Daily. Thus, be ready to see prices whipsaw back and forth as the markets "base" and prepare for their next lasting advance." O'Neil remains bullish for the long term. "Technology and the Internet are here to stay," he said. Once the healthy process of washing out the excesses takes place, he sees a roaring bull market returning in the fall. O'Neil suggests that investors still on margin or fully invested use rallies to decrease their leverage. -Jim--- - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: han.26@osu.edu Subject: [CANSLIM] DSPG ready to run? Date: 18 Apr 2000 21:28:57 -0700 Average volume of 463,960. Today went up 15.93% on 1,271,200 volume...[was at 44 1/2 after Friday, now at 55 15/16]. Here's a snippet from the earnings report released today: "SANTA CLARA, Calif., April 17 /PRNewswire/ -- DSP Group, Inc. (Nasdaq: DSPG, news, msgs) today announced its financial results for the first quarter ended March 31, 2000. Revenues for the first quarter of 2000 were $23,386,000, an increase of 124%, compared to $10,462,000 in the same quarter of 1999. Net income for the first quarter was $15,409,000, an increase of 1,204%, compared to $1,182,000 for the same quarter of 1999. Earnings per share were $0.54 (diluted), an increase of 980% compared to $0.05 (diluted), in the same quarter of 1999. Results for the first quarter of 2000 include two unusual expense items amounting to $14,154,000. One of them is a write off amount of $11,929,000, related to the acquired in-process research and development in connection with the acquisition of approximately 73% of the outstanding shares of VoicePump, Inc. In addition, an expense of $2,225,000, reflected the accelerated amortization of acquired assets and intangibles related to the 1999 acquisition of 900 MHz RF and baseband technology from Applied Micro Devices, Inc. These unusual items are included under "Operating Expenses" in the Company's statements of income. Results for the first quarter of 2000 also include a one-time capital gain of $40,009,000 resulting from the sale of shares of DSP Group's affiliate, Audiocodes Ltd. during this quarter. This one time capital gain is included under "Other Income (expense)" in the Company's statements of income. DSP Group still holds approximately 2.3 million of Audiocode's shares which represent approximately 12% of the outstanding shares. Excluding the effects of the unusual items and the one-time capital gain, pro-forma net income for the first quarter 2000 was $5,854,000 or $0.21 (diluted) per share, compared to $1,182,000 or $ 0.05 (diluted) per share in the first quarter of 1999... " more at http://www.quicken.com/investments/news/?symbol=DSPG sorry to keep harping on DSPG, but IMO, this one may jump in the next few months if the market can finish back testing this correction/mini-bear. -Jim--- - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: han.26@osu.edu Subject: [CANSLIM] DSPG secondary note Date: 18 Apr 2000 21:30:54 -0700 Of secondary cosideration [after doing your CANSLIM homework, of couse]: "Alert: W.R. Hambrecht upgrades DSPG to Strong Buy, price target $75 Briefing.com, 04/18/2000 12:21 PM EDT" -Jim--- - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Bill Triffet" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] DSPG ready to run? Date: 18 Apr 2000 20:28:00 -0700 Given the chart pattern, definately not canslim. Maybe a momentum play - but not canslim. -Bill - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] State of M Date: 19 Apr 2000 02:04:22 -0400 This almost sounds like Bill O'Neill talking from his notes on HTMMIS, which many, myself included, have remarked as being a decade out of date. We cheered his 26 week series as at least bringing CANSLIM more into touch with modern day reality, and acknowledging the existence of money flow into big cap and internet stocks. This is a fairly specific sort of forecast, esp for WON. Will be interesting to see how accurate it proves to be over the next 3-4 months. Personally, I am not convinced just yet, and will hold my long positions. But then I like taking chances. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html ----- Original Message ----- Sent: Tuesday, April 18, 2000 1:49 PM Today in CBS Marketwatch: "A bear market should not end in a month and a half. It should take four to five months to clear out the excesses," said Bill O'Neil, founder and chairman of Investor's Business Daily. Thus, be ready to see prices whipsaw back and forth as the markets "base" and prepare for their next lasting advance. O'Neil remains bullish for the long term. "Technology and the Internet are here to stay," he said. Once the healthy process of washing out the excesses takes place, he sees a roaring bull market returning in the fall. O'Neil suggests that investors still on margin or fully invested use rallies to decrease their leverage. Steve Grier scgjd@pacbell.net - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: [CANSLIM] Little detail overlooked Date: 19 Apr 2000 02:33:01 -0400 One of those trivial details forgotten last Friday: From MoneyDaily: THANK YOU, EARNINGS! We prayed to the gods of earnings--and they delivered! Bottom-line watcher I/B/E/S reports that this is a hell of a quarter. As of this morning, roughly 25% of the S&P 500 had reported, and over 70% of them beat the Street! And that was before today, which produced many big winners. What amazes me is how many institutional money managers were apparently surprised by strong earnings. If we only hold steady the rest of the week, we have not only two back to back record daily point gains, but a record for a one week gain, in Nasdaq. Of course, the record point loss last Friday did give us a cheap baseline to measure from! Ah, the symmetry, one record point drop, two record point gains. Now, if we could do this every week, I could have fun day trading. Too bad it ain't over till the fat person sings! Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: [CANSLIM] Blowout results Date: 19 Apr 2000 02:36:21 -0400 From what I've read recently, including tonight, on whisper expectations, these are blowout results. I look for another good day tomorrow as a result, tho I've not checked into aftermarket trading yet. Again from MoneyDaily: After the close, the blowouts continued: IBM beat by five cents; Intel, by nine cents; Qualcomm, by a penny. And AOL (my future parent), turned in 175% earnings growth (11 cents over four cents), on a 43% gain in revenue, boosted by the addition of 1.7 million new members, bringing the total to more than 22 million. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: chris dempsey Subject: [CANSLIM]Industry Group Rankings Date: 19 Apr 2000 08:47:45 -0400 (EDT) I keep track of the industry group strength on the 1st and 16th of each month. Ex. 4i/00 = 4/16/00 & 4/00 = 4/1/00. I have removed groups that are dropping or are low. Earl, reading your recent posts I think that you will be surprised that on June 30- July 1 the industry groups will not be sorted anything close to YTD performance. This must be due to more emphasis on near term performance than the entire six months in IBD's calculation of six month industry group strength. I have found that charting this each half month can keep me out of falling A groups, and into rising A, B and C groups. SpecificIndustryGroup,4i/00,4/00,3i/00,3/00,2i/00,2/00,1i/00,1/00,12i/99,12/99,11i/99,11/99,10i/99,10/99 Elec-Semiconductor Mfg,1,5,11,10,8,13,11,12,14,11,7,7,4,2 Telecommunications-Equip,2,1,4,2,6,6,8,8,10,7,6,6,5,4 Computer-Memory Devices,3,3,7,14,17,15,15,13,8,12,11,9,9,13 Elec-Semiconductor Equip,4,10,12,12,9,19,17,19,23,17,12,8,12,14 Medical-Biomed/Genetics,5,7,1,1,1,1,1,9,17,18,17,13,7,7 Elec-Laser Sys/Component,6,14,9,7,21,28,27,36,37,46,40,47,41,39 Computer-Optical Recogtn,7,11,14,13,16,18,20,18,19,19,16,23,32,44 Computer Softwr-Security,8,4,2,6,5,7,4,5,6,5,8,11,29,112 Elec-Scientific Instrumn,9,19,18,16,20,9,9,14,18,16,19,24,23,26 Computer-Graphics,10,16,23,27,27,29,30,35,38,41,51,89,79,120 Elec-Misc Componets,11,13,17,15,14,16,16,16,11,9,10,12,10,10 Elec Products-Misc,14,12,16,20,25,24,23,20,21,23,18,17,15,22 Medical-Products,15,26,24,18,24,23,26,34,33,36,37,25,19,16 Electrical-Connectors,16,29,33,36,40,43,34,33,29,21,29,36,47,41 Elec-Parts Distributors,17,27,38,37,42,41,40,40,42,45,42,30,20,9 Medical-Generic Drugs,18,39,48,47,50,53,74,110,146,133,144,94,149,98 Oil&Gas-Machinery/Equip,20,36,62,66,68,79,85,92,130,124,93,123,108,58 Oil & Gas-Drilling,21,35,60,52,62,62,45,49,75,60,48,74,31,11 Elec Measrng Instruments,25,23,25,23,26,30,32,39,46,53,55,31,26,24 Medical-Hospitals,29,47,58,63,53,48,41,99,114,136,175,192,192,190 Computer-Manufacturers,32,32,37,44,45,39,38,23,20,28,31,32,21,35 Oil&Gas-Field Services,34,56,70,75,102,122,104,106,150,100,100,152,77,34 Leisure-Products,36,51,69,79,80,83,114,101,94,112,101,119,106,141 Comml Svcs-Schools,37,50,66,69,60,77,117,75,82,122,153,143,175,191 Bldg-Heavy Const,38,59,57,65,73,97,95,107,116,110,122,79,74,75 Machinery-Mtl Hdlg/Autmn,39,52,64,60,44,64,70,94,135,145,136,170,167,157 Finance-Investment Mgmt,40,53,63,64,67,70,68,77,73,63,98,120,132,147 Finance-Investment Bkrs,43,40,45,56,52,51,76,65,65,80,132,158,174,123 Transportation-Ship,47,69,78,102,115,96,137,135,138,130,137,141,97,90 Transportation-Airline,48,85,109,147,150,145,109,100,89,119,90,164,185,173 Finance-Publ Inv Fd-Frn,49,62,52,51,51,50,49,54,51,50,59,78,105,107 Medical-Hlth Maint Org,52,99,151,151,144,169,155,173,186,193,194,188,191,187 Bldg-Constr Prods/Misc,55,89,98,100,100,106,119,108,95,94,115,114,90,80 Retail/Whlsle-Bldg Prods,59,96,117,88,86,90,98,68,76,98,74,106,134,149 Retail-Apparel/Shoe,61,72,115,125,122,93,90,80,69,78,69,66,65,86 Machinery-Gen Industrial,62,84,76,82,77,82,86,89,81,99,140,147,150,104 Retail-Discount&Variety,64,91,110,140,137,142,134,149,104,85,89,67,73,53 Textile-Apparel Mfg,66,74,102,108,99,120,96,114,107,105,83,80,103,133 Chemicals-Specialty,67,90,97,95,111,110,113,119,118,135,139,127,121,100 Transportation-Truck,69,101,107,107,97,116,102,117,128,125,120,99,115,82 Food-Dairy Products,72,70,86,81,76,119,126,136,144,114,106,52,49,91 Oil&Gas-Prod/Pipeline,75,92,96,101,110,126,132,155,181,151,112,90,85,95 Auto Mfrs-Foreign,76,109,132,135,145,105,108,97,100,121,97,101,125,71 Shoes & Rel Apparel,79,113,130,137,148,146,158,115,110,142,103,58,62,72 Retail-Restaurants,81,104,120,111,124,144,169,154,164,147,133,121,89,132 Auto/Truck-Original Eqp,84,106,99,115,140,132,167,175,169,170,165,76,57,65 Banks-Money Center,86,110,136,167,172,147,174,157,136,128,110,138,186,185 Bldg-Resident/Commrcl,90,107,138,138,154,172,164,141,155,163,180,185,179,159 Oil&Gas-Cdn Exp&Prod,92,116,122,148,126,137,130,126,134,108,71,48,25,12 Insurance-Diversified,97,121,149,154,143,111,171,171,157,180,184,189,195,193 Retail/Wholesale-Food,99,131,155,158,171,159,159,168,158,156,146,148,153,146 ______________________________________________ FREE Personalized Email at Mail.com Sign up at http://www.mail.com/?sr=signup - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM]Industry Group Rankings Date: 19 Apr 2000 09:40:15 -0400 Industry Group Relative Strength is a proprietary formula based on the 6 month price performance of the highest relative strength stocks and the industry group. The highest relative strength stocks account for 75% of the rating. The group performance accounts for 25% of the rating. So it is not a simple average. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html ----- Original Message ----- Sent: Wednesday, April 19, 2000 8:47 AM I keep track of the industry group strength on the 1st and 16th of each month. Ex. 4i/00 = 4/16/00 & 4/00 = 4/1/00. I have removed groups that are dropping or are low. Earl, reading your recent posts I think that you will be surprised that on June 30- July 1 the industry groups will not be sorted anything close to YTD performance. This must be due to more emphasis on near term performance than the entire six months in IBD's calculation of six month industry group strength. - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Tim Fisher Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] State of M Date: 19 Apr 2000 08:41:02 -0700 Bravo Tom. You echoed my thoughts exactly. Market compression happens when information flows at the speed of light as opposed to the speed of printing presses. I think we could have a 6 _week_ bear market these days. I also don't think we entered one until last week, and that we are flirting with birthing a new bull this week. I do know that what I have held onto despite the selling rules is not in a bear market (ORCL, AMD, AMAT, ADBE, SEBL, QCOM, CSCO, etc.). My accounts are not in a bear market - they are 16% below my all-time high set in March. That's a correction and a mild one at that. The only thing that worries me is the third leg down that could materialize if the NAZ bounces off its 50dma from the underside again. It could go to 2500 or so as you suggested earlier. On 11:04 PM 4/18/00, Tom Worley Said: >This almost sounds like Bill O'Neill talking from his notes on >HTMMIS, which many, myself included, have remarked as being a >decade out of date. We cheered his 26 week series as at least >bringing CANSLIM more into touch with modern day reality, and >acknowledging the existence of money flow into big cap and >internet stocks. > >This is a fairly specific sort of forecast, esp for WON. Will be >interesting to see how accurate it proves to be over the next 3-4 >months. Personally, I am not convinced just yet, and will hold my >long positions. But then I like taking chances. > >Tom Worley >stkguru@netside.net >chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 >get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html > > >----- Original Message ----- >From: Steve >To: >Sent: Tuesday, April 18, 2000 1:49 PM >Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] State of M > > >Today in CBS Marketwatch: > >"A bear market should not end in a month and a half. It should >take four to >five months to clear out the excesses," said Bill O'Neil, founder >and >chairman of Investor's Business Daily. Thus, be ready to see >prices whipsaw >back and forth as the markets "base" and prepare for their next >lasting >advance. > >O'Neil remains bullish for the long term. "Technology and the >Internet are >here to stay," he said. Once the healthy process of washing out >the excesses >takes place, he sees a roaring bull market returning in the fall. > >O'Neil suggests that investors still on margin or fully invested >use rallies >to decrease their leverage. > >Steve Grier >scgjd@pacbell.net Tim Fisher Ore-Rock-On and Pacific Fishery Biologists WWW Sites Tim@OreRockOn.com WWW: http://OreRockOn.com See naked fish and rocks! - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: jeff.salisbury@xmission.com Date: 19 Apr 2000 10:01:37 -0600 2000 15:19:45 UT Received: from bh1.compuware.com (mailhost.compuware.com [172.22.1.239]) by cwus-dtw-mr01.compuware.com (Build 98 8.9.3/NT-8.9.3) with ESMTP id KAA28295 for ; Wed, 19 Apr 2000 10:14:14 +0100 Received: by bh1.compuware.com with Internet Mail Service (5.5.2650.21) id ; Wed, 19 Apr 2000 11:24:00 -0400 Message-ID: <3BC155C15B30D311A6F20008C75D8923015DB065@cwus-mke-pri01.ps.compuware.com> MIME-Version: 1.0 X-Mailer: Internet Mail Service (5.5.2650.21) Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Check http://www.620wtmj.com (it's Milwaukee's 620 AM station). Charlie Sykes published a similar list three or four years ago. Joe -----Original Message----- Sent: Saturday, April 15, 2000 9:25 AM Thoughts from Bill Gates In Bill Gates' book (Business @ The Speed of Thought), he lays out 11 rules that students do not learn in high school or college. He argues that our feel good, politically correct teachings have created a generation of kids with no concept of reality who are set up for failure in the real world. RULE 1 - Life is not fair; get used to it. RULE 2 - The world won't care about your self-esteem. The world will expect you to accomplish something BEFORE you feel good about yourself. RULE 3 - You will NOT make 40 thousand dollars a year right out of high school. You won't be a vice president with a car phone, until you earn both. RULE 4 - If you think your teacher is tough, wait till you get a boss. He doesn't have tenure. RULE 5 - Flipping burgers is not beneath your dignity. Your grandparents had a different word for burger flipping; they called it opportunity. RULE 6 - If you mess up, it's not your parents' fault, so don't whine about your mistakes, learn from them. RULE 7 - Before you were born, your parents weren't as boring as they are now. They got that way from paying your bills, cleaning your clothes and listening to you talk about how cool you are. So before you save the rain forest from the parasites of your parents' generation, try "delousing" the closet in your own room. RULE 8 - Your school may have done away with winners and losers, but life has not. In some schools they have abolished failing grades; they'll give you as many times as you want to get the right answer. This doesn't bear the slightest resemblance to ANYTHING in real life. RULE 9 - Life is not divided into semesters. You don't get summers off and very few employers are interested in helping you find yourself. Do that on your own time! RULE 10 - Television is NOT real life. In real life people actually have to leave the coffee shop and go to jobs. RULE 11 - Be nice to nerds. Chances are you'll end up working for one. -----Original Message----- [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of Werner Vandewiele Sent: Saturday, April 15, 2000 9:06 AM Professor, ** Two questions for you: ++ Did you seen this correction comming a month or so ago? ++ Why? Regards, <<< Werner Vandewiele >>> - - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "walter nusbaum" Subject: [CANSLIM] CMRC Date: 19 Apr 2000 11:17:16 -0500 Commerce One(CMRC) is clearly not a present CANSLIM candidate, but I would appreciate any comments as a possible buy(or not). Thanks. Best wishes, Walt - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Wahl, Patrick" Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] CMRC Date: 19 Apr 2000 10:32:04 -0600 Go to Jubaks' page and read his column of a week ago on CMRC, you should be able to find it in some archive somewhere. The entire b2b sector was reevaluated and downgraded because it looks those companies are not going to make quite as much money as was thought just a few weeks ago. > -----Original Message----- > From: walter nusbaum [mailto:wnusbaum@airmail.net] > Sent: Wednesday, April 19, 2000 10:17 AM > To: canslim@lists.xmission.com > Subject: [CANSLIM] CMRC > > > Commerce One(CMRC) is clearly not a present CANSLIM > candidate, but I would > appreciate any comments as a possible buy(or not). Thanks. > Best wishes, > Walt > > > > > - > - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: han.26@osu.edu Subject: [CANSLIM] Re:DSPG Date: 19 Apr 2000 13:06:57 -0700 >>>Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] DSPG ready to run? Given the chart pattern, definately not canslim. Maybe a momentum play - but not canslim. - -Bill<<< True, but if you look at the chart BEFORE the NAZ slide it is a perfect cup w/ handle (which is when I bought it). It's been chomping at the bit whenever the market moves up even amidst the slide. Yes, it's riskier, I agree. -Jim--- - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] CMRC Date: 19 Apr 2000 12:10:02 -0700 Even with the last two days gain of about 29 points, CMRC has not broken above its down trend channel lines (although where to draw these lines is not very straight forward)... at least for now it remains in a downtrend. IBD #'s are 14 94 CDE (not too good). Ziggy walter nusbaum wrote: > Commerce One(CMRC) is clearly not a present CANSLIM candidate, but I would > appreciate any comments as a possible buy(or not). Thanks. > Best wishes, > Walt > > - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Patrick Wahl" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] CMRC Date: 19 Apr 2000 21:23:24 -0600 Just saw its earnings report, certainly had tremendous gains in revenues, even sequentially they were up over 100%. The chart does still need to do something constructive, there is just no way to call its future direction out of its present chart pattern (or lack of pattern). On 19 Apr 00, at 11:17, walter nusbaum wrote: > Commerce One(CMRC) is clearly not a present CANSLIM candidate, but I would > appreciate any comments as a possible buy(or not). Thanks. > Best wishes, > Walt > > > > > - > - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Makara Tamás" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] State of M Date: 20 Apr 2000 06:57:50 +0200 Dear Tom, I just don't understand you. WON may not be able to forecast the market as most of us are not. But looking at what the market HAS done: first we had all the elements needed for a market top then a big selloff and no follow through day yet. Isn't it all that a canslimer needs to know about the market now? Tamas P.S. This message is about the state of M. I didn't mean to criticize you being long: your stock selection must be great if you didn't get stopped out. > From: "Tom Worley" > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] State of M > Date: 19 Apr 2000 02:04:22 -0400 > > This almost sounds like Bill O'Neill talking from his notes on > HTMMIS, which many, myself included, have remarked as being a > decade out of date. We cheered his 26 week series as at least > bringing CANSLIM more into touch with modern day reality, and > acknowledging the existence of money flow into big cap and > internet stocks. > > This is a fairly specific sort of forecast, esp for WON. Will be > interesting to see how accurate it proves to be over the next 3-4 > months. Personally, I am not convinced just yet, and will hold my > long positions. But then I like taking chances. > > Tom Worley > - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] State of M Date: 20 Apr 2000 01:39:14 -0400 Hi Makara, First, I rarely use stops. Second, trading only small and micro caps, I usually don't follow the rules that apply much better if you are investing in higher priced, more liquid stocks. Third, I routinely break a lot of rules since I now am only trading for my own personal account, and not someone else's. That said, I'll go on record that I do not believe we have seen a bear market here, only a correction (albeit a very sharp and fast one) in a continuing bull mkt. I have not had the time to intellectualize or analyze this opinion, it really comes more from the gut and the feeling. It just does not feel like a bear mkt to me, however brief. Some of that is from the economics, the US economy is simply not in trouble yet. Some of it comes from the US mkt still representing attractive value. Some of it comes from the sharp, funnel shaped recovery of Mon and Tue. I will also go on record that had I even vaguely anticipated just how sharp and broad spread this correction might be, I would have gone totally to cash in both my IRA (all small/micro caps) as well as my 401 (mid and large caps). I would have cashed out at a profit, and saved myself some nice money. But I didn't. I saw the money flow from new economy to old; from large cap to mid and small cap. I did not see the bloodbath across the board approaching. But to go back to WON's comments, I also don't now (nor on Friday past) see this as a correction/bear market that will last for many months. Sure, it may take a while before the mkt moves up again, but every forecast I saw spoke strongly of how good earnings would be for the 1st qtr. And so far, there's nothing in the economics to suggest a sharp fall in earnings in Q2. I believe earnings are now finally starting to drive the mkt, so some excessively high valuations will plummet to where they should have been without the speculative fever. But there are many solid, performing, growing companies out there that did not participate in the speculative and inflated valuations of the past several months that will not only support, but lead, this market higher in the next few months. And that's where CANSLIMers can make some respectable profits. It's time we start identifying those stocks, and get ready. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html ----- Original Message ----- Sent: Thursday, April 20, 2000 12:57 AM Dear Tom, I just don't understand you. WON may not be able to forecast the market as most of us are not. But looking at what the market HAS done: first we had all the elements needed for a market top then a big selloff and no follow through day yet. Isn't it all that a canslimer needs to know about the market now? Tamas P.S. This message is about the state of M. I didn't mean to criticize you being long: your stock selection must be great if you didn't get stopped out. > From: "Tom Worley" > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] State of M > Date: 19 Apr 2000 02:04:22 -0400 > > This almost sounds like Bill O'Neill talking from his notes on > HTMMIS, which many, myself included, have remarked as being a > decade out of date. We cheered his 26 week series as at least > bringing CANSLIM more into touch with modern day reality, and > acknowledging the existence of money flow into big cap and > internet stocks. > > This is a fairly specific sort of forecast, esp for WON. Will be > interesting to see how accurate it proves to be over the next 3-4 > months. Personally, I am not convinced just yet, and will hold my > long positions. But then I like taking chances. > > Tom Worley > - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "John Adair" Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] Follow through's Date: 20 Apr 2000 13:07:46 -0500 would you go ahead and place this formula into a search. another good search would be to pick out the stocks which are undergoing distribution. Perhaps you could help us with that to. -----Original Message----- [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of Luke Lang Sent: Wednesday, April 12, 2000 1:12 AM It seems to me that we should be able to quantify what constitutes a follow through day and write a scan for charting programs to identify it. I will take the first stab at it. Please correct me if I'm wrong. I will use QP2's notation. Close(0) and Vol(0) are today's closing price and volume. Close(-1) and Vol(-1) are yesterday's close and volume. A follow through day is identified if all of the following conditions are met: 1) Close(0) >= 1.01 * Close(-1) => closing up by 1% 2) Vol(0) > Vol(-1) => on higher volume For i = 3 to 10, 3) Close(-i) >= 1.01 * Close(-i-1) => first rally attempt 3 to 10 days ago 4) Vol(-i) > Vol(-i-1) => on higher volume Conditions 3) and 4) only have to be met for one day between 3 and 10 days ago. Are there any other conditions that one should add? Thanks. Best regards, Luke Lang --- wroblewski@uswest.net wrote: > Hi Walt, > > You are right...a rally is not confirmed until a > valid Follow-thru day > occurs...but a rally attempt starts when it starts > and then you start counting > looking for a follow-thru. There are many false > rallies that fail to provide a > valid follow-thru day as well as some rallies that > do have a valid F/T day and > subsequently prove to be false also. The current > rally (or attempted rally if > you prefer) has not had a valid follow-thru day and > as such I am not invested. > > WON defines "a rally as an attempt by a stock or the > general market to turn up > and advance in price after a period of decline". He > further states that > "eventually one of the rallies will > 'follow-through' ". So a rally is an > attempt at changing direction from a downtrend...it > may or may not be successful > but it is still a rally. > > What I was trying to bring up for discussion is what > does constitute day 1 of a > rally attempt. > > Best regards, > > Ziggy > > walter nusbaum wrote: > > > ----- Original Message ----- > > From: > > To: > > Sent: Tuesday, April 11, 2000 11:07 AM > > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Follow through's > > > > Ziggy & Alexander, > > Well, I'm sorry but I don't see a rally of any > kind. 4 APR was the low on > > very heavy volume. It is my understanding that a > follow through day(FT) is > > required to confirm a rally. There has not been a > day since, when the market > > was up from the previous day on *greater* volume > than the day before, which > > defines a FT. No? > > Best wishes, > > Walt > > > > > Hi Alexander, > > > > > > A very good question as I was just thinking the > same thing. > > > > > > My understanding is that the rally continues > counting days as long as the > > > intraday low that occurred on the 1ST DAY OF THE > START OF THE RALLY is not > > > violated. I just called IBD and talked to > someone named Mike who concurred > > > with this thinking...What was interesting from > my conversation with Mike > > was > > > when the rally started...I had thought that the > 1ST day occurred on 4/4 > > when > > > we had that deep low of 3649.11 and that strong > retracement to close at > > > 4148.89. IBD (Mike) said the 1ST day of the > current rally was 4/5 not 4/4 > > > because the start of the rally has to close > higher than the previous day's > > > close. > > > > > > So according to IBD's Mike, today is day 5 of > the current rally attempt > > and > > > the counting continues unless we undercut the > intraday low we had on 4/5 > > of > > > 4009.09. > > > > > > What do others think? > > > > > > Ziggy > > > > > > Alexander T wrote: > > > > > > > Hi, > > > > > > > > After the first day of rally we start counting > days until we see a > > follow > > > > through. Now, does anyone remember what > resets these days? > > > > > > > > 1. Market undercutting previous intraday low > during the day, but closing > > > > above that previous intraday low, or > > > > 2. Market CLOSING below previous intraday low > > > > > > > > I am actually asking because I think in > today's investor's corner IBD > > used > > > > #2, and I thought it was #1. > > > > > > > > Thanks ! > > > > > > > > - > > > - > > __________________________________________________ Do You Yahoo!? Send online invitations with Yahoo! Invites. http://invites.yahoo.com - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "walter nusbaum" Subject: [CANSLIM] CMRC Date: 20 Apr 2000 13:56:42 -0500 Patrick & Ziggy, Thanks for your time and comments. I was late opening some mail, and ran across a CMRC recommendation for a long term B&H at $230/sh. The article provided an overview of the B2B market, CMRC's present position, client list, and showed revenues doubling every *quarter*. All very impressive. I checked the graph and it was making a v-bottom off its low of about $33, with a high of $125.(Must have been split at sometime). Even with a severe market downturn, I couldn't see why it had moved so low. Thanks again. Best wishes, Walt - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: [CANSLIM] A new version of American Pie Date: 20 Apr 2000 22:49:06 -0400 Stole this from Fortune Street Life - it's too good not to pass along, hope they won't mind a ditty sent over by a pal at Goldman Sachs: "Humble Pie." Sing it to Don McLean's (or Madonna's) "American Pie." Have a good weekend! A long, long week ago I can still remember how the market used to make me smile What I'd do when I had the chance Is get myself a cash advance And add another tech stock to the pile. But Alan Greenspan made me shiver With every speech that he delivered Bad news on the rate front Still I'd take one more punt I can't remember if I cried When I heard about the CPI I lost my fortune and my pride The day the NASDAQ died So bye-bye to my piece of the pie Now I'm gettin' calls for margin 'Cause my cash account's dry It's just two weeks from a new all-time high And now we're right back where we were in July We're right back where we were in July Did you buy stocks you never heard of? QCOM at 150 or above? 'Cos George Gilder told you so Now do you believe in Home Depot? Can Wal-Mart save your portfolio? And can you teach me what's a P/E ratio? Well, I know that you were leveraged too So you can't just take a long-term view Your broker shut you down No more margin could be found I never worried on the whole way up Buying dot coms from the back of a pickup truck But Friday I ran out of luck It was the day the NAAAASDAQ died Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Brian Bellamy Subject: [CANSLIM] Contrarian indicator Date: 20 Apr 2000 23:28:45 -0400 Hi all. Reading some of the recent posts I notice that there is still a lot of bullish sentiment. For instance, Tom believes M is still bull with this currently being some type of intermediate correction. Recent IBD's have noted that investor sentiment is still about 54% bullish and notes that this is too high to indicate a market turnaround is ready to happen yet. I thought this was interesting. Before catching up and reading some of these posts, I could not understand how 54% could be bull after a 30% drop in market valuation. But, looking at the sentiment on this list it seems accurate. Maybe, gut feelings have not changed enough for the bear to be over. Once some more of the bulls' hearts are twisted and rinsed out by the bear market, then historically all of the last of the bull's have sold who are going to and the new bull market can begin. Hmm, maybe a good indicator of when to jump back in will be when Tom becomes a bear. :) - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Contrarian indicator Date: 20 Apr 2000 23:59:11 -0400 Actually, Brian, I've been very bearish for well over a month, which the long term members know is highly unusual for me. Granted, you had to read my limited comments closely to get that impression, but it was there. Last Friday's plunge stripped some of the excess valuation out of the market, and created some doubts in the minds of the dot com followers, but didn't change a whole lot in the market otherwise. Maybe a few novices discovered that you can actually LOSE money in the market. Sorry, but that's part of the tuition expense. My overall bullishness is fostered in part by the economics that I see. But I also see some increasing risks there as well, which makes me more cautious than usual, even in my own account. The recovery this week, along with the overall reaction to earnings reports, gives me the impression that we are moving back into a market where values and earnings (and most importantly rate of earnings growth) will count for something. That favors CANSLIMers. And anyone trying to follow my "bear tracks" better be nimble indeed! Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html ----- Original Message ----- Sent: Thursday, April 20, 2000 11:28 PM Hi all. Reading some of the recent posts I notice that there is still a lot of bullish sentiment. For instance, Tom believes M is still bull with this currently being some type of intermediate correction. Recent IBD's have noted that investor sentiment is still about 54% bullish and notes that this is too high to indicate a market turnaround is ready to happen yet. I thought this was interesting. Before catching up and reading some of these posts, I could not understand how 54% could be bull after a 30% drop in market valuation. But, looking at the sentiment on this list it seems accurate. Maybe, gut feelings have not changed enough for the bear to be over. Once some more of the bulls' hearts are twisted and rinsed out by the bear market, then historically all of the last of the bull's have sold who are going to and the new bull market can begin. Hmm, maybe a good indicator of when to jump back in will be when Tom becomes a bear. :) - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: rolatzi Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Contrarian indicator Date: 21 Apr 2000 06:43:44 -0700 (PDT) To add a little bearish sentiment. We are presently entering the seasonally weak period of the year. The IRA's have been placed, the taxes paid and the the bank accounts depleted. This period on average runs until the end of October more or less. ciao, rolatzi --- Brian Bellamy wrote: > Hi all. > Reading some of the recent posts I notice that there is > still a lot of > bullish sentiment. For instance, Tom believes M is still > bull with this > currently being some type of intermediate correction. > Recent IBD's have > noted that investor sentiment is still about 54% bullish > and notes that > this is too high to indicate a market turnaround is ready > to happen yet. > I thought this was interesting. Before catching up and > reading some of > these posts, I could not understand how 54% could be bull > after a 30% > drop in market valuation. But, looking at the sentiment > on this list it > seems accurate. Maybe, gut feelings have not changed > enough for the bear > to be over. Once some more of the bulls' hearts are > twisted and rinsed > out by the bear market, then historically all of the last > of the bull's > have sold who are going to and the new bull market can > begin. Hmm, maybe > a good indicator of when to jump back in will be when Tom > becomes a > bear. :) > > > - > > __________________________________________________ Do You Yahoo!? Send online invitations with Yahoo! Invites. http://invites.yahoo.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Contrarian indicator Date: 21 Apr 2000 20:43:29 -0400 I would partially disagree with this. As a retail broker, I found it was fairly easy to cajole more money out of clients in Jan and Feb as they spent their annual bonuses and pay raises. Come March, their focus was on the taxes they might owe by April 15, and new money was hard to raise, and some cash outflow was seen. After April 15, this eased, and the only clients that were still a problem were the ones that filed for extension, and they less so since they were supposed to have already paid their estimated taxes. But by June the focus was on the family vacation trip, and what it would cost, and not wanting to be bothered about the stock mkt when they could not stay in touch, hence the "summer doldrums". But these doldrums can be deceptive, as they are marked by lighter volume, and with the 2nd qtr earnings cycle starting mid July, volatility could be extreme this year if earnings remain as strong in the 2nd qtr as in the 1st. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html ----- Original Message ----- Sent: Friday, April 21, 2000 9:43 AM To add a little bearish sentiment. We are presently entering the seasonally weak period of the year. The IRA's have been placed, the taxes paid and the the bank accounts depleted. This period on average runs until the end of October more or less. ciao, rolatzi --- Brian Bellamy wrote: > Hi all. > Reading some of the recent posts I notice that there is > still a lot of > bullish sentiment. For instance, Tom believes M is still > bull with this > currently being some type of intermediate correction. > Recent IBD's have > noted that investor sentiment is still about 54% bullish > and notes that > this is too high to indicate a market turnaround is ready > to happen yet. > I thought this was interesting. Before catching up and > reading some of > these posts, I could not understand how 54% could be bull > after a 30% > drop in market valuation. But, looking at the sentiment > on this list it > seems accurate. Maybe, gut feelings have not changed > enough for the bear > to be over. Once some more of the bulls' hearts are > twisted and rinsed > out by the bear market, then historically all of the last > of the bull's > have sold who are going to and the new bull market can > begin. Hmm, maybe > a good indicator of when to jump back in will be when Tom > becomes a > bear. :) > > > - > > __________________________________________________ Do You Yahoo!? Send online invitations with Yahoo! Invites. http://invites.yahoo.com - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: [CANSLIM] DGO List - Part one Date: 22 Apr 2000 08:56:35 -0400 Happy Easter to all, but not apparently in the Cuban community. Judging by the volume (non volume??) of email in the group, seems not too many are thinking about stocks this weekend. But there are still a few of us otherwise without a life, that are trying to find you a few pearls when we are not watching reruns of masked US marshals kidnapping six year old boys in the middle of the night. If I didn't know better, I'd think I was in some third world country!! If the father truly wanted to see his son, why didn't he just fly into Miami?? I am amazed that Little Havana is not rioting this morning, I really respect the reaction as sentiments are pretty strong here. I am so disgusted with the US government, and DOJ in particular, right now. Why didn't they just kidnap the father and bring him here, he could have handled the trauma far better. I am sure Castro is smiling this morning. Anyway, enough politics, and I thought media stock commentators and lawyers were disgusting! The list this week starts at 72, down slightly from last week's at 79, and in line with the previous week of 71. Consolidation, maybe? Wouldn't be a bad option, certainly better than a retest of lows. An optimistic start for me, the very first one on the overall list is already on my watch list: ATMS, consolidating, caution, not only low priced (under 8) but also a small cap. GIL: - broke a new high on volume APH - nice recovery, looks good NBTY - lengthy consolidation, several failed breakouts ASGN - B3 PLXS - nice rally back near highs TWP - another nice funnel, B3+ ALTR - another nice consolidation, recovery, over 6 weeks HH - once again here, B3 APCC - 5 week consolidation CVG - another nice consolidation, volume needs to dry up CUNO - breakout starting on Thu, B6 RELL - consolidation EQT - B3 Sorry, I am too distracted by what is going on in my home community to look at more stock charts now. Will finish the list later. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Patrick Wahl" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] DGO List - Part one Date: 22 Apr 2000 10:05:24 -0600 On 22 Apr 00, at 8:56, Tom Worley wrote: > Happy Easter to all, but not apparently in the Cuban community. > > Judging by the volume (non volume??) of email in the group, seems > not too many are thinking about stocks this weekend. But there > are still a few of us otherwise without a life, that are trying I have a few thoughts, pretty obvious observations, but since it is so quiet - Noticed last week that even stocks that were beating estimates were still not moving, Intel for one, Copper Mountain soundly beat estimates and got a half day pop but didn't follow through, number of others (AAPL, JNPR come to mind) had the same reaction or lack of reaction from market, but I think we all already knew that the market needs more consolidation time. Also noted that MSFT had somewhat disappointing revenue numbers and earnings numbers that would have disappointed except for some help from invesmtent income, and after the close Thursday it traded 4 points lower in the aftermarket trading. I believe that MSFT also tried to guide analysts a bit lower in their forecasts for the remainder of the year. I wonder if this could be a further drag on the market, since no question msft is a technology market leader (or is it THE tech market leader?, anyway, a biggie). > to find you a few pearls when we are not watching reruns of > masked US marshals kidnapping six year old boys in the middle of > the night. If I didn't know better, I'd think I was in some third > world country!! If the father truly wanted to see his son, why > didn't he just fly into Miami?? I am amazed that Little Havana is Ok, I have to comment - think this is so grossly overblown in the first place it is absolutely absurd, very ethnocentric of this country to think that elian should be kept here over the wishes of his father, its practically kidnapping, imagine how we would feel if Iran, say, were to refuse to return an american child to his american father if some similar situation arose. I think the US was pushed into taking action in extricating elian from those fanatics in miami. - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "walter nusbaum" Subject: Re: OFF LIST(was [CANSLIM] DGO List - Part one) Date: 22 Apr 2000 13:48:21 -0500 ----- Original Message ----- Sent: Saturday, April 22, 2000 11:05 AM > > > On 22 Apr 00, at 8:56, Tom Worley wrote: > > > Happy Easter to all, but not apparently in the Cuban community. > > > > Judging by the volume (non volume??) of email in the group, seems > > not too many are thinking about stocks this weekend. But there > > are still a few of us otherwise without a life, that are trying (Snip) > > to find you a few pearls when we are not watching reruns of > > masked US marshals kidnapping six year old boys in the middle of > > the night. If I didn't know better, I'd think I was in some third > > world country!! If the father truly wanted to see his son, why > > didn't he just fly into Miami?? I am amazed that Little Havana is > > Ok, I have to comment - think this is so grossly overblown in the > first place it is absolutely absurd, very ethnocentric of this country > to think that elian should be kept here over the wishes of his father, > its practically kidnapping, imagine how we would feel if Iran, say, > were to refuse to return an american child to his american father if > some similar situation arose. I think the US was pushed into > taking action in extricating elian from those fanatics in miami. Patrick, Just gotta comment. I'm surprised that the entire country is not aroused at the actions of our own government. Have we forgotten that Cuba was the principal training/supply base for the overthrow of several Central and South American goverments? That Che Guevera said his greatest wish was to nuke New York City? That the Russians were building missile sites in Cuba, and that if it were not for our naval blockade and the fact that the Russians blinked, he may have gotten his wish? Have we forgotten the 20,000 strong Cuban army that was sent to *Africa*, and was acting under orders from Moscow? That this is a country that trades extensively with all the rest of the world, except the U.S., yet its people still live essentially in poverty with water and electricity turned off during scheduled periods. That the Cuban people are de facto prisoners of their own government, and that many have died trying to reach freedom's shore only 90 miles away. That while the boy is ostensibly being returned to his father, he is actually being sent back to a government that would destroy our way of life if it but had the means. In my view, we should oppose Castro at every turn, until he relents and at least frees his own people. Best wishes, Walt - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Matt Robinson" Subject: Re: OFF LIST(was [CANSLIM] DGO List - Part one) Date: 22 Apr 2000 18:17:28 -0400 Everyone, please stop discussing this. Not only is this completely off any related subject of this list, I thought this might be one of the few place where I could look for information/discussion unrelated to this topic. I personally have a strong opinion on the issue as well, but this is not the place to discuss that. Further, I think it is safe to say this issue has been RUN into the ground. Regards Matt ----- Original Message ----- Sent: Saturday, April 22, 2000 2:48 PM > > ----- Original Message ----- > From: "Patrick Wahl" > To: > Sent: Saturday, April 22, 2000 11:05 AM > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] DGO List - Part one > > > > > > > > On 22 Apr 00, at 8:56, Tom Worley wrote: > > > > > Happy Easter to all, but not apparently in the Cuban community. > > > > > > Judging by the volume (non volume??) of email in the group, seems > > > not too many are thinking about stocks this weekend. But there > > > are still a few of us otherwise without a life, that are trying > > (Snip) > > > > to find you a few pearls when we are not watching reruns of > > > masked US marshals kidnapping six year old boys in the middle of > > > the night. If I didn't know better, I'd think I was in some third > > > world country!! If the father truly wanted to see his son, why > > > didn't he just fly into Miami?? I am amazed that Little Havana is > > > > Ok, I have to comment - think this is so grossly overblown in the > > first place it is absolutely absurd, very ethnocentric of this country > > to think that elian should be kept here over the wishes of his father, > > its practically kidnapping, imagine how we would feel if Iran, say, > > were to refuse to return an american child to his american father if > > some similar situation arose. I think the US was pushed into > > taking action in extricating elian from those fanatics in miami. > > Patrick, > Just gotta comment. I'm surprised that the entire country is not aroused at > the actions of our own government. Have we forgotten that Cuba was the > principal training/supply base for the overthrow of several Central and > South American goverments? > > That Che Guevera said his greatest wish was to nuke New York City? That the > Russians were building missile sites in Cuba, and that if it were not for > our naval blockade and the fact that the Russians blinked, he may have > gotten his wish? > > Have we forgotten the 20,000 strong Cuban army that was sent to *Africa*, > and was acting under orders from Moscow? > > That this is a country that trades extensively with all the rest of the > world, except the U.S., yet its people still live essentially in poverty > with water and electricity turned off during scheduled periods. > > That the Cuban people are de facto prisoners of their own government, and > that many have died trying to reach freedom's shore only 90 miles away. > > That while the boy is ostensibly being returned to his father, he is > actually being sent back to a government that would destroy our way of life > if it but had the means. In my view, we should oppose Castro at every turn, > until he relents and at least frees his own people. > Best wishes, > Walt > > > > > - > __________________________________________________ Do You Yahoo!? Talk to your friends online with Yahoo! Messenger. http://im.yahoo.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: han.26@osu.edu Subject: [CANSLIM] Re:bull vs. bear sentiment Date: 22 Apr 2000 19:23:37 -0700 If it helps anyone in their formulations, my official sentiment is: "nervous"--not sure how you chart that though. -happy portfolio reallocating season, -Jim-- - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: [CANSLIM] DGO List - Part 2 Date: 23 Apr 2000 03:25:52 -0400 AXE - B4 HP - B3 (caution - latest qtr only one with expanding earnings) NLCS - B6, consolidating BWC - B3+, two most recent qtrs powerful, two easy qtrly comparisons coming up FLM - B7 Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tim Fisher" Subject: [CANSLIM] Interesting prognosis from HGS Date: 23 Apr 2000 08:52:13 -0700 >Ianforum.com - http://www.ianforum.com > >http://www.ianforum.com/markets.htm > >The Nasdaq rallied strongly Monday and Tuesday, but the gains gave way to >profit taking and uncertainty on Wednesday and Thursday. As you can see, >there was an opening gap up on Tuesday, but it was on reduced volume. The >volume fell off steadily all week after Monday's volume surge. > >Is this a Bear Market rally or a sucker's rally? We obviously do not know >yet, but the down trend line needs to be broken to the upside and the 17 >day MA needs to cross through the 50 Day MA before we can be on our way >again with HGS Investing. If the gap is filled at 3539 to the downside, I >would expect a test of last Friday's low. > >The Nasdaq is trading dangerously close to the 200 day MA. There is still >a lot of complacency out there, which is a negative for the markets. > >Keep your cash in a safe place, but if you must play, buy only the >strongest stocks or stocks in the Defensive Surrogate. It may be too late >for them, so be careful. The Warriors and Internets have been trashed, so >I am now only updating the Fab 7, Mattress Stuffers , and Defensive >Stocks. > >The Mattress Stuffers and the Fab 7 are both looking weak as groups. The >17 day MA is at the 50 day MA on both surrogates. I am using the >candlestick charts with the closeup view in the new version of IRL. Take a >look. > >The Dow and the NYSE are much stronger than the Nasdaq and the small cap >stocks. Remember though, if the Nasdaq tanks again like it did last >Friday, all markets will be dragged down. > >Ian wrote some insightful articles on money management and selling points >for stocks. Don't miss them! They are linked off the home page at >http://www.ianforum.com/ > >Have a good Easter Weekend. > >Ron Tim Fisher, 1995 President, Pacific Fishery Biologists Ore-ROCK-On Rockhounding Web Site PFB Information mailto:tim@OreRockOn.com WWW http://OreRockOn.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Mary Keener Subject: [CANSLIM] DGO List - Part 1 Date: 23 Apr 2000 09:49:33 -0700 Greetings to All, This message board is for CANSLIM members and discussion of stocks within the health or resumption of market health. And I do believe the board has been tight in focusing on these issues. However, once in a while, I think going off topic a bit is just fine. After all, we are more than the stock market. Events affect the market and us as well. This soap opera between Cuba and the U.S. has been, as most of them are, rather tedious, boring, stretched beyond any reasonable limit. The boy belongs with his dad whether his dad's country is Cuba, Russia, Mongolia or China. We have no rights here even though we value freedom, democracy. There is a point where we don't belong, and this is one point. I agree with Walter that Castro is out for himself, not his people. He is using this incident to his advantage along with others. Perhaps Elian's father would prefer to see his son remain here, however, he may not be allowed to articulate this with Castro on his back. What irks me is the U.S. government's handling of this situation. Regards, Mary - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: han.26@osu.edu Subject: [CANSLIM] Re: Personal issues not CANSLIM Date: 23 Apr 2000 16:54:04 -0700 >>>I think it is safe to say this issue has been RUN into the ground. Regards Matt<<< Here here!!! If I want to discuss politics/media/etc., I'll go to Yahoo. I'll vote for more CANSLIM. There's more than enough BS already on the news. That's why I don't watch it. - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Fanus Subject: [CANSLIM] Suggestions on my Watch list please? Date: 23 Apr 2000 16:56:22 CDT Hi I am studying CANSLIM for the last two months and reading up on investing= as much as possible the last couple of months and is ready (if one can ever = be really ready) to start paper trading now. This weekend, I put together my= first CANSLIM watch list. I would appreciate any feeback and suggestions= on my list from the other subscribers on the list. I hope requests like this= is appropriate on the list. Regards - Fanus BBOX : Couple of weeks (rough) base. Volume seems to be drying up. FWRD : Could be starting to base. HH : Start forming a new base after the dip. USTR : Could be starting to base. APCC : Couple of weeks base, before last weeks dip. Back at base level ASGN : Couple of weeks base, before last weeks dip. Back at base level PLXS : Range a little wide. Could be starting to base if volume dry up. SHOO : Couple of weeks basing. ____________________________________________________________________ Get free email and a permanent address at http://www.netaddress.com/?N=3D= 1 - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Dan Sutton" Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] Suggestions on my Watch list please? Date: 23 Apr 2000 16:33:54 -0600 Fanus.. Here is my take on a couple of your picks, if I get time I will add more later.. BBOX Things I like: Group rank is increasing 91% of 52 week high Only 11.6 million shares in float EPS rank at 93 Cash flow growth rate is increasing over the 3 year rate ROE of 25.1 PEG ratio at 1.12 Earnings increases out of the last 20 quarters: 19 Things I don't like: Currently taking 116 days to turn shares in float 80.2% of the stock is institutionally owned Zacks analyst recommendation is at 1.71 I am only projecting about a $6.50 rise in price before it hits resistance Only 2 positive earnings surprises in the last 4 quarters One year earnings growth rate at 19.4% One year projected earnings growth rate at 21.7% BBOX is a good candidate for my watch list (it's has been on it for about a month), but don't think it is strong enough in fundamentals to buck the market, and it is too high in it's trading chanel to buy right now. FWRD Things I like: Group rank is increasing 99% of 52 week high Float is turning over in 37.7 days Only 5.4 million shares in float EPS rank at 98 ROE of 42.1 PEG ratio at 1.38 3 positive earnings surprises in the last 4 quarters Earnings increases out of the last 20 quarters: 19 One year projected earnings growth rate at 38.2% Things I don't like 80.2% of the stock is institutionally owned Zacks analyst recommendation is at 2.0 Earnings increases out of the last 20 quarters: 12 One year earnings growth rate at 3.6% Sales growth rate is at a minus 31.5% I am only projecting about a $3.60 rise in price before it hits resistance Too high in trading channel for a buy, more downside potential than upside Two stocks that I do like for this week are PLMD and WMT (bought both last week), if the market lets them run there is some serious upside potential in both. -----Original Message----- [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of Fanus Sent: Sunday, April 23, 2000 3:56 PM Hi I am studying CANSLIM for the last two months and reading up on investing as much as possible the last couple of months and is ready (if one can ever be really ready) to start paper trading now. This weekend, I put together my first CANSLIM watch list. I would appreciate any feeback and suggestions on my list from the other subscribers on the list. I hope requests like this is appropriate on the list. Regards - Fanus BBOX : Couple of weeks (rough) base. Volume seems to be drying up. FWRD : Could be starting to base. HH : Start forming a new base after the dip. USTR : Could be starting to base. APCC : Couple of weeks base, before last weeks dip. Back at base level ASGN : Couple of weeks base, before last weeks dip. Back at base level PLXS : Range a little wide. Could be starting to base if volume dry up. SHOO : Couple of weeks basing. ____________________________________________________________________ Get free email and a permanent address at http://www.netaddress.com/?N=1 - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Interesting prognosis from HGS Date: 23 Apr 2000 12:18:03 -0400 Seems Ian has concluded that we are in a bear mkt, a conclusion I do not yet support. Wonder how he would view this if he had not made this decision? Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html ----- Original Message ----- Sent: Sunday, April 23, 2000 11:52 AM >Ianforum.com - http://www.ianforum.com > >http://www.ianforum.com/markets.htm > >The Nasdaq rallied strongly Monday and Tuesday, but the gains gave way to >profit taking and uncertainty on Wednesday and Thursday. As you can see, >there was an opening gap up on Tuesday, but it was on reduced volume. The >volume fell off steadily all week after Monday's volume surge. > >Is this a Bear Market rally or a sucker's rally? We obviously do not know >yet, but the down trend line needs to be broken to the upside and the 17 >day MA needs to cross through the 50 Day MA before we can be on our way >again with HGS Investing. If the gap is filled at 3539 to the downside, I >would expect a test of last Friday's low. > >The Nasdaq is trading dangerously close to the 200 day MA. There is still >a lot of complacency out there, which is a negative for the markets. > >Keep your cash in a safe place, but if you must play, buy only the >strongest stocks or stocks in the Defensive Surrogate. It may be too late >for them, so be careful. The Warriors and Internets have been trashed, so >I am now only updating the Fab 7, Mattress Stuffers , and Defensive >Stocks. > >The Mattress Stuffers and the Fab 7 are both looking weak as groups. The >17 day MA is at the 50 day MA on both surrogates. I am using the >candlestick charts with the closeup view in the new version of IRL. Take a >look. > >The Dow and the NYSE are much stronger than the Nasdaq and the small cap >stocks. Remember though, if the Nasdaq tanks again like it did last >Friday, all markets will be dragged down. > >Ian wrote some insightful articles on money management and selling points >for stocks. Don't miss them! They are linked off the home page at >http://www.ianforum.com/ > >Have a good Easter Weekend. > >Ron Tim Fisher, 1995 President, Pacific Fishery Biologists Ore-ROCK-On Rockhounding Web Site PFB Information mailto:tim@OreRockOn.com WWW http://OreRockOn.com - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Patrick Wahl" Subject: [CANSLIM] futures Date: 23 Apr 2000 19:09:32 -0600 Who knows if this is meaningful, but right now (9 pm eastern), the nasdaq futures are down 61 points. maybe a microsoft hangover? - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Suggestions on my Watch list please? Date: 23 Apr 2000 21:04:13 -0400 Fanus, your post is entirely appropriate, certainly more on topic than my earlier political venting, even if done in connection with my weekly posting of charts from Daily Graphs Online. One member already commented on BBOX and FWRD, I would add to that response that DGO does not show as high an institutional holding. Remember that different sites count things differently, at DGO the funds ownership is shown as a percentage of the float. With BBOX, there is only 5% management ownership reported, so the 41% ownership by the funds is very high, too high for good CANSLIM. With FWRD, management is reported owning 56%, so the 51% ownership by funds of the remaining 9 mio shares in the float is still high, but different, as management has a major stake in the future. I would also suggest that FWRD may be forming a cup, handle possibly to follow. I have seen a lot of transportation cos showing this lately. HH - high debt, and only the latest quarter shows it breaking out of the stagnation of earnings and sales. I would want to see this confirmed by the March quarter before acting. USTR - recovery this past week, like so many other stocks, was on less than ADV. Will be interesting to see how it holds up this coming week. APCC - another good one to watch ASGN - I don't like the small holding by management (5%) and the large holding by funds (38%) PLXS - past six weeks were so volatile that it is hard to define a base in there; small ownership by mngmt (8%) SHOO - Group RS is only 67, and it is only ranked 4th in a relatively weak group. Overall, an excellent watch list, you are definitely ready to start paper trading. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html ----- Original Message ----- Sent: Sunday, April 23, 2000 5:56 PM Hi I am studying CANSLIM for the last two months and reading up on investing as much as possible the last couple of months and is ready (if one can ever be really ready) to start paper trading now. This weekend, I put together my first CANSLIM watch list. I would appreciate any feeback and suggestions on my list from the other subscribers on the list. I hope requests like this is appropriate on the list. Regards - Fanus BBOX : Couple of weeks (rough) base. Volume seems to be drying up. FWRD : Could be starting to base. HH : Start forming a new base after the dip. USTR : Could be starting to base. APCC : Couple of weeks base, before last weeks dip. Back at base level ASGN : Couple of weeks base, before last weeks dip. Back at base level PLXS : Range a little wide. Could be starting to base if volume dry up. SHOO : Couple of weeks basing. _________________________________________________________________ ___ Get free email and a permanent address at http://www.netaddress.com/?N=1 - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: [CANSLIM] Futures Date: 23 Apr 2000 23:28:08 -0400 gonna be an interesting day on Monday. While S&P100 still essentially flat at a down half percent, nasdaq has only gotten worse, now down nearly 2.5%. However, Asia is holding even on the major exchanges, or showing uptrends, so too early too call until Europe opens as well. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Werner Vandewiele Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] futures Date: 24 Apr 2000 12:05:40 +0200 Forgive me this newbie question: What does this imply? Does this mean the Nasdaq will open 61 points lower? At 07:09 PM 23-04-00 -0600, you wrote: >Who knows if this is meaningful, but right now (9 pm eastern), the >nasdaq futures are down 61 points. maybe a microsoft hangover? > >- Regards, <<< Werner Vandewiele >>> - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] futures Date: 24 Apr 2000 06:23:59 -0400 Werner, The state of futures trading can provide some clue on how the US markets may open, but futures trading is volatile and serves only as an indication, and only for the open. Right now the Naz futures are off 85 points, or roughly 2.4%, suggesting a substantial down opening (but not necessarily 2.4%). What we may be seeing more than anything is the absence of foreign investors, esp Asia and Europe, where most markets are closed for Easter. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html ----- Original Message ----- Sent: Monday, April 24, 2000 6:05 AM Forgive me this newbie question: What does this imply? Does this mean the Nasdaq will open 61 points lower? At 07:09 PM 23-04-00 -0600, you wrote: >Who knows if this is meaningful, but right now (9 pm eastern), the >nasdaq futures are down 61 points. maybe a microsoft hangover? > >- Regards, <<< Werner Vandewiele >>> - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Robert Subject: [CANSLIM] Acc/Dis Numbers Date: 23 Apr 2000 22:54:25 -0400 here are the latest Acc/Dis Numbers. Happy Easter!!! Date A B C D E AB/A:E %E 4/17/00 954 2742 1381 1125 479 55 7 Spread Sheet version: Date,A,B,C,D,E,AB/A:E,%E 4/18/00,616,2454,1452,1369,623,47%,10% 4/19/00,588,2378,1437,1389,651,46%,10% 4/20/00,674,2468,1484,1339,592,48%,9% 4/24/00,694,2525,1470,1333,558,49%,8% Robert - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Werner Vandewiele Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] futures Date: 24 Apr 2000 14:06:39 +0200 Thank you Tom From the web site: www.cme.com/cgi-bin/gflash.cgi CONTRACT LAST NET CHGE E-NASDAQ JUN00 3425.00 -11000 How do I read this? Net change -11000 Does that mean -110 points? Why do they right it as -11000? At 06:23 AM 24-04-00 -0400, you wrote: >Werner, > >The state of futures trading can provide some clue on how the US >markets may open, but futures trading is volatile and serves only >as an indication, and only for the open. Right now the Naz >futures are off 85 points, or roughly 2.4%, suggesting a >substantial down opening (but not necessarily 2.4%). What we may >be seeing more than anything is the absence of foreign investors, >esp Asia and Europe, where most markets are closed for Easter. > >Tom Worley >stkguru@netside.net >chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 >get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html > > >----- Original Message ----- >From: Werner Vandewiele >To: >Sent: Monday, April 24, 2000 6:05 AM >Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] futures > > >Forgive me this newbie question: > >What does this imply? Does this mean the Nasdaq will open 61 >points lower? > > >At 07:09 PM 23-04-00 -0600, you wrote: > >Who knows if this is meaningful, but right now (9 pm eastern), >the > >nasdaq futures are down 61 points. maybe a microsoft >hangover? > > > >- > >Regards, > ><<< Werner Vandewiele >>> > > >- > > > >- Regards, <<< Werner Vandewiele >>> - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] futures Date: 24 Apr 2000 08:22:51 -0400 down 110 decimal 00, from 3535 decimal 00, or just over a 3% drop overnight (from Thursday's close). Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html ----- Original Message ----- Sent: Monday, April 24, 2000 8:06 AM Thank you Tom From the web site: www.cme.com/cgi-bin/gflash.cgi CONTRACT LAST NET CHGE E-NASDAQ JUN00 3425.00 -11000 How do I read this? Net change -11000 Does that mean -110 points? Why do they right it as -11000? At 06:23 AM 24-04-00 -0400, you wrote: >Werner, > >The state of futures trading can provide some clue on how the US >markets may open, but futures trading is volatile and serves only >as an indication, and only for the open. Right now the Naz >futures are off 85 points, or roughly 2.4%, suggesting a >substantial down opening (but not necessarily 2.4%). What we may >be seeing more than anything is the absence of foreign investors, >esp Asia and Europe, where most markets are closed for Easter. > >Tom Worley >stkguru@netside.net >chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 >get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html > > >----- Original Message ----- >From: Werner Vandewiele >To: >Sent: Monday, April 24, 2000 6:05 AM >Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] futures > > >Forgive me this newbie question: > >What does this imply? Does this mean the Nasdaq will open 61 >points lower? > > >At 07:09 PM 23-04-00 -0600, you wrote: > >Who knows if this is meaningful, but right now (9 pm eastern), >the > >nasdaq futures are down 61 points. maybe a microsoft >hangover? > > > >- > >Regards, > ><<< Werner Vandewiele >>> > > >- > > > >- Regards, <<< Werner Vandewiele >>> - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: rolatzi Subject: [CANSLIM] Futures Date: 24 Apr 2000 05:42:44 -0700 (PDT) I heard this morning that MSFT is down 7 points in early trading because of a rumor flying that the justice department is going to break up the company into applications and operating system divisions. This 10% drop in MSFT would explain a good percentage of the drop in NASDAQ, no? __________________________________________________ Do You Yahoo!? Send online invitations with Yahoo! Invites. http://invites.yahoo.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Tim Fisher Subject: [CANSLIM] MNMD Date: 24 Apr 2000 10:36:05 -0700 Seems to be breaking up hard for no good reason that I can find. This usually means rumors. Horrible chart, M stinks, etc. Just thought I'd mention it. I looked at APCC and am wowed. Should have bot it when I switched to defensive techs. It was even on my list. Oh well, at least I have AMD... P.S. I looked at WMT and I really don't see what the big deal is there. It looks like a 50/50 chance it will break up vs. down to me. Can someone explain the allure to me? Go MCD! Tim Fisher Ore-Rock-On and Pacific Fishery Biologists WWW Sites Tim@OreRockOn.com WWW: http://OreRockOn.com See naked fish and rocks! - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: han.26@osu.edu Subject: [CANSLIM] M Date: 24 Apr 2000 14:05:00 -0700 I'm looking for a large enough rally (sucker or real) to get out of this volatile market until at least after the Fed is through raising rates and a clear trend is established. I would not feel comfortable buying OR shorting any time soon because of the volatility and the unpredictability of sentiment. -Jim-- - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: rolatzi Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] M Date: 24 Apr 2000 11:27:02 -0700 (PDT) You and everyone else. --- han.26@osu.edu wrote: > I'm looking for a large enough rally (sucker or real) to > get out of this volatile > market until at least after the Fed is through raising > rates and a clear trend is > established. I would not feel comfortable buying OR > shorting any time soon > because of the volatility and the unpredictability of > sentiment. > > -Jim-- > > > > > - > > __________________________________________________ Do You Yahoo!? Send online invitations with Yahoo! Invites. http://invites.yahoo.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: [CANSLIM] For the opening Date: 25 Apr 2000 07:41:25 -0400 Dollar strong against the yen, euro and pound sterling. Futures up over 1%. Both Germany and France up. Rest of Europe mostly flat. Looks like foreign investment dollars from both Asia and Europe are flowing back in, taking advantage of cheap prices (relative to a month or so ago, but not to valuations). Lot of major earnings due this week, indications are that most will beat the whispers, and show strong year over year comparisons. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: jeff.salisbury@xmission.com Date: 25 Apr 2000 06:08:58 -0600 (EDT) Reply-To: Message-ID: MIME-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit X-Priority: 3 (Normal) X-MSMail-Priority: Normal X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook IMO, Build 9.0.2416 (9.0.2910.0) X-MimeOLE: Produced By Microsoft MimeOLE V4.72.3110.3 Importance: Normal In-Reply-To: Hi My name is Dan and I am happy to be part of this canslim digest report. I am a professional money manager and have been following the CANSLIM method (as well as others) for several years now. Recently, I dusted off my books and made a comprehensive review of the method. As always, diligence helps in the stock market and over the past few weeks I wish I had listened to the market and less to clients (why or how could you sell MSFT Dan? Are you crazy?!) and less to my analysts (emphasis on 1st half of the word). Anyway, I am looking to your comments and participating when appropriate. I subscribe to IBD, Daily Graphs On-Line and will be getting WONDA (Wm O'Neil Database Analyst) in a month or two which sorts according to the CANSLIM method. I hope it may help. Sincerely, Dan - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Werner Vandewiele Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] M Date: 25 Apr 2000 22:03:44 +0200 Looks like a follow thru day to me folks! On the Nasdaq that is. Up more than 1% on volume higher than the previous day, right? Regards, <<< Werner Vandewiele >>> - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Pritish Shah Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] M Date: 25 Apr 2000 13:13:58 -0700 (PDT) Follow through happens 4 through 7 days *after* a start of a rally. I would say that this is the start of a rally. Regards, Shah On Tue, 25 Apr 2000, Werner Vandewiele wrote: > Looks like a follow thru day to me folks! > > On the Nasdaq that is. > > Up more than 1% on volume higher than the previous day, right? > > > Regards, > > <<< Werner Vandewiele >>> > > > - > > - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: han.26@osu.edu Subject: [CANSLIM] Follow through from what start day? Date: 25 Apr 2000 16:43:27 -0700 >>Looks like a follow thru day to me folks! On the Nasdaq that is. Up more than 1% on volume higher than the previous day, right? Regards, Werner Vandewiele << Werner, what day are you counting from as the beginning to which today is a follow through? I have assumed that since there have been distribution days in between, we would have to begin counting [yet] again, today, Tues 4/25/00, being day one. Anyone else see it Werner's way too? (If so, maybe I need to reread HTMMIS chapter on M yet again.) -Jim-- - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "walter nusbaum" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] M Date: 25 Apr 2000 15:55:16 -0500 Shah, I believe this is a follow through day. However, WON says that you can't tell much on the 1st or 2nd day of a rally, and that *confirmation*(another follow through day) usually occurs on the 4th through the 7th day(as you noted). You're right. It is the start of a rally. Best wishes, Walt ----- Original Message ----- Sent: Tuesday, April 25, 2000 3:13 PM > > Follow through happens 4 through 7 days *after* a start of a rally. > > I would say that this is the start of a rally. > > Regards, > Shah > > On Tue, 25 Apr 2000, Werner Vandewiele wrote: > > > Looks like a follow thru day to me folks! > > > > On the Nasdaq that is. > > > > Up more than 1% on volume higher than the previous day, right? > > > > > > Regards, > > > > <<< Werner Vandewiele >>> > > > > > > - > > > > > > > - > - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Werner Vandewiele Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] M Date: 25 Apr 2000 23:13:37 +0200 This is the 6th day after the recent EOD low (3321.29). We are up more than 1% on volume that is higher than the previous day. Volume is not THAT much higher, but good enough to be good for a reasonable FT day. Last I saw volume was 7% higher than yesterday. don't have final number yet. This a follow thru day folks. Time to hit the books again, if ya don't believe me. At 01:13 PM 25-04-00 -0700, you wrote: >Follow through happens 4 through 7 days *after* a start of a rally. > >I would say that this is the start of a rally. > >Regards, >Shah > >On Tue, 25 Apr 2000, Werner Vandewiele wrote: > > > Looks like a follow thru day to me folks! > > > > On the Nasdaq that is. > > > > Up more than 1% on volume higher than the previous day, right? > > > > > > Regards, > > > > <<< Werner Vandewiele >>> > > > > > > - > > > > > > >- Regards, <<< Werner Vandewiele >>> - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Tim Fisher Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] M Date: 25 Apr 2000 14:29:50 -0700 Werner, you are right on. From IBD's web site: Wait For Market To Confirm Fresh Rally By Ed Carson February 4, 2000 When you're about to make a big decision, it's a good idea to get a second opinion. The stock market isn't any different. It's tempting to start buying as soon as the market looks like it's bottomed. But don't jump back in right away. Wait until a follow-through move confirms the new uptrend. --->A rally attempt begins when one or more of the major market indexes has a positive day following a correction. Often the average will hit new lows intraday before roaring back to close higher. That was Monday, 4/17, NASDAQ hit the intraday low and closed over 3500 after opening near the low. "Don't start buying yet. Rally attempts often fail, and the market will sink to new lows. Wait for a confirmation that the market has truly turned." --->Start counting from the first positive day. The market action on the second and third days usually doesn't matter as long as the average remains above its intraday lows. That would also be Monday, 4/17, Day 1. Today is Day 5. --->Look for a follow-through move on the fourth through seventh day. A follow-through day occurs when a major index rises 1% or more on higher volume than the prior day. If there is volume, today is the follow-through on the NASDAQ. I don't have access to volume figures. Follow-throughs are no guarantee a rally will thrive. But no major advance has started without one. Those that occur after the 10th day suggest the rally may be weak. Confirmed rallies that fail usually come crashing down a day or two after the follow-through. During last year's summer correction, there were confirmed rallies in late August and early October of 1999, though neither was impressive. Both failed within days. Finally, the S&P 500 bottomed on Oct. 18, 13.1% off its old high. The big-cap index fell early that day, but recovered to close up 6.72 points at 1254.13. That was day one. On Oct. 27, the eighth day, the S&P rose 1.2% on somewhat higher volume. That qualified as a follow-through, but by itself didn't inspire much confidence. Unlike the prior attempts, though, other indicators suggested the market had bottomed. The put/call volume ratio peaked at 0.93 on Oct. 15, the day before the market bottomed and the highest level in a year. When investor sentiment turns excessively bearish, it's usually a bullish sign. On Oct. 28, the S&P 500 surged 3.5% on heavy volume as the Dow industrials and the Nasdaq staged their own follow-throughs. From their follow-through confirmations, the S&P 500 rose 14%, the Dow climbed 11% and the Nasdaq surged 50%. Savvy investors moved right away. Leading stocks started blowing out of bases on the confirmation session and in the weeks that followed. Keep track of the major averages every day on Investor's Business Daily's "General Markets & Sectors" page. Read "The Big Picture" on the same page for daily market analysis. On 02:13 PM 4/25/00, Werner Vandewiele Said: >This is the 6th day after the recent EOD low (3321.29). > We are up more than 1% on volume that is higher than the previous day. > Volume is not THAT much higher, but good enough to be good for a > reasonable FT day. Last I saw volume was 7% higher than yesterday. don't > have final number yet. > >This a follow thru day folks. Time to hit the books again, if ya don't >believe me. > > >At 01:13 PM 25-04-00 -0700, you wrote: > >>Follow through happens 4 through 7 days *after* a start of a rally. >> >>I would say that this is the start of a rally. >> >>Regards, >>Shah >> >>On Tue, 25 Apr 2000, Werner Vandewiele wrote: >> >> > Looks like a follow thru day to me folks! >> > >> > On the Nasdaq that is. >> > >> > Up more than 1% on volume higher than the previous day, right? >> > >> > >> > Regards, >> > >> > <<< Werner Vandewiele >>> >> > >> > >> > - >> > >> > >> >> >>- > >Regards, > ><<< Werner Vandewiele >>> > > >- Tim Fisher Ore-Rock-On and Pacific Fishery Biologists WWW Sites Tim@OreRockOn.com WWW: http://OreRockOn.com See naked fish and rocks! - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] M Date: 25 Apr 2000 14:45:08 -0700 Werner, I also believe it was a follow thru day today...day 6 of the rally that began 5 days ago...I believe that rally was still in effect unless the intraday low of 5 days ago was undercut and it wasn't. I also called IBD's education line and asked if this was day 6 of the current rally and considered a F/T day by them...and they responded that is was and when I explained my above thinking they replied "you got it!" Regards, Ziggy Werner Vandewiele wrote: > Looks like a follow thru day to me folks! > > On the Nasdaq that is. > > Up more than 1% on volume higher than the previous day, right? > > Regards, > > <<< Werner Vandewiele >>> > > - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Tim Fisher Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] M Date: 25 Apr 2000 14:54:07 -0700 P.S. I see many potential "leaders blowing out of bases" today. AMD has been for a week; AC, APH, AXE, ADCT, ADBE, ALTR, APCC, are all within a hair of their 52-week highs, and indeed most closed at their closing all-time highs. I don't think you need to go past the "A's" to find the new leadership. In case you feel the need to, PLXS, POOL, TER, TNL, are all at new highs. PWR & VSH are basing. FWIW the following are all 80/80/80/ABC and are within 15% of the 52-wk high: AC ADBE ALTR AMK AMKR APCC APH AXE AZZ BARZ CHP CVG EMC ESIO FII HC HDI HH NLCS PHG PLMD PLXS POOL PWR TER TNL VSH WDR Disc: I own not nearly enough of these, namely ADBE & AMD. On 02:13 PM 4/25/00, Werner Vandewiele Said: >This is the 6th day after the recent EOD low (3321.29). > We are up more than 1% on volume that is higher than the previous day. > Volume is not THAT much higher, but good enough to be good for a > reasonable FT day. Last I saw volume was 7% higher than yesterday. don't > have final number yet. > >This a follow thru day folks. Time to hit the books again, if ya don't >believe me. > > >At 01:13 PM 25-04-00 -0700, you wrote: > >>Follow through happens 4 through 7 days *after* a start of a rally. >> >>I would say that this is the start of a rally. >> >>Regards, >>Shah >> >>On Tue, 25 Apr 2000, Werner Vandewiele wrote: >> >> > Looks like a follow thru day to me folks! >> > >> > On the Nasdaq that is. >> > >> > Up more than 1% on volume higher than the previous day, right? >> > >> > >> > Regards, >> > >> > <<< Werner Vandewiele >>> >> > >> > >> > - >> > >> > >> >> >>- > >Regards, > ><<< Werner Vandewiele >>> > > >- Tim Fisher Ore-Rock-On and Pacific Fishery Biologists WWW Sites Tim@OreRockOn.com WWW: http://OreRockOn.com See naked fish and rocks! - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "walter nusbaum" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] M Date: 25 Apr 2000 17:39:52 -0500 Werner, Tim, & Ziggy, Werner, thanks for starting the thread. Tim, thanks for the detailed explanation. Ziggy, thanks for your initiative in calling IBD. At last, I think I've got it! In HTMMIS, WON talks about a "second confirmation". He also talks about a "first indication" of a market bottom, but is not clear(to me) what the "first confirmation" is. I have erroneously held in my mind that a 2nd follow through was the 2nd "confirmation". I see now that his first "indication" is also his first "confirmation". I wish he had worded that a little differently, but thanks to you guys, now I've got it! Best wishes, Walt ----- Original Message ----- Sent: Tuesday, April 25, 2000 4:45 PM > Werner, I also believe it was a follow thru day today...day 6 of > the rally that began 5 days ago...I believe that rally was still > in effect unless the intraday low of 5 days ago was undercut and > it wasn't. > > I also called IBD's education line and asked if this was day 6 of > the current rally and considered a F/T day by them...and they > responded that is was and when I explained my above thinking they > replied "you got it!" > > Regards, > Ziggy > > Werner Vandewiele wrote: > > > Looks like a follow thru day to me folks! > > > > On the Nasdaq that is. > > > > Up more than 1% on volume higher than the previous day, right? > > > > Regards, > > > > <<< Werner Vandewiele >>> > > > > - > > > - > - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Dwayne Andras" Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] DGO List - Part one Date: 25 Apr 2000 18:02:05 -0500 I need advice... I can bet on the answer.... I was thinking on subscribing to DGO. I am an IBD sub. but I get it a day late. What are the pros and cons of the DGO... All comments welcome. Thanks Dwayne P. Andras MSN, CCRN, RN, CS, ACNP, APRN DeeAndras@cajun.net - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Hugh Fader Subject: PLXS (was Re: [CANSLIM] M) Date: 25 Apr 2000 19:12:05 -0400 Of the stocks you mention, PLXS broke out of a six-week double bottom today. CANSLIM stats are exceptional: RS 94, EPS 95, GRS A, SMR A, A/D A. ROE is 20% with no debt. 16% fund ownership, 8% management ownership. Accelerating EPS growth of 2%, 19%, 44% for last three quarters. With the exception of the last few weeks, has had support from it 50 day MA since November. Only negative I see is it is not in the top 5 of its group Elec-Semiconductor Mfg. Anybody see something I don't? Regards, Hugh Tim Fisher wrote: > P.S. I see many potential "leaders blowing out of bases" today. AMD has > been for a week; AC, APH, AXE, ADCT, ADBE, ALTR, APCC, are all within a > hair of their 52-week highs, and indeed most closed at their closing > all-time highs. I don't think you need to go past the "A's" to find the new > leadership. In case you feel the need to, PLXS, POOL, TER, TNL, are all at > new highs. PWR & VSH are basing. > - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Dave Rubin" Subject: [CANSLIM] O'Neill Follow Through Date: 25 Apr 2000 19:23:11 -0400 Today counts as a follow through of the rally that began last Monday. It is on the 5th day and breadth is also increasing. But O'Neill also said that the market needs more consolidation time. So should this follow-through be ignored? - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Patrick Wahl" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] M Date: 25 Apr 2000 19:41:59 -0600 One more opinion, I am not a subscriber to Trading markets, but went to the front page anyway, this was the quote under the Kevin Marder link - An O'Neil follow-through day in the Naz, replete with superb participation So sounds like Marder thinks it was a follow through day. On 25 Apr 00, at 17:39, walter nusbaum wrote: > Werner, Tim, & Ziggy, > Werner, thanks for starting the thread. Tim, thanks for the detailed > explanation. Ziggy, thanks for your initiative in calling IBD. > > At last, I think I've got it! In HTMMIS, WON talks about a "second > confirmation". He also talks about a "first indication" of a market bottom, > but is not clear(to me) what the "first confirmation" is. > > I have erroneously held in my mind that a 2nd follow through was the 2nd > "confirmation". I see now that his first "indication" is also his first > "confirmation". > I wish he had worded that a little differently, but thanks to you guys, now > I've got it! > Best wishes, > Walt > > ----- Original Message ----- > From: > To: > Sent: Tuesday, April 25, 2000 4:45 PM > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] M > > > > Werner, I also believe it was a follow thru day today...day 6 of > > the rally that began 5 days ago...I believe that rally was still > > in effect unless the intraday low of 5 days ago was undercut and > > it wasn't. > > > > I also called IBD's education line and asked if this was day 6 of > > the current rally and considered a F/T day by them...and they > > responded that is was and when I explained my above thinking they > > replied "you got it!" > > > > Regards, > > Ziggy > > > > Werner Vandewiele wrote: > > > > > Looks like a follow thru day to me folks! > > > > > > On the Nasdaq that is. > > > > > > Up more than 1% on volume higher than the previous day, right? > > > > > > Regards, > > > > > > <<< Werner Vandewiele >>> > > > > > > - > > > > > > - > > > > > > - > - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] O'Neill Follow Through Date: 25 Apr 2000 18:44:51 -0700 Hi Dave, WON counts the first day of the rally attempt as day 1...monday day 1...tues 2...wed 3...thur 4...mon 5 and today is day 6 and was a F/T day. As far as your other comment as to whether or not it should be ignored...that is a good question. It is true that WON has been saying that the market needs more consolidation time and more bearish sentiment before we turn...so at least at this point we don't know. WON says (in lesson 14, page 81 of 24 ELFIS) "About 20% of the time they (F/T day) can give a false buy signal, which is fairly easy to recognize after a few days, because the market will usually promptly and noticeably fail on large volume."... "However, most true 'follow-throughs' will usually show strong positive action on good volume either the day after the 'follow-through' or several days later." So I guess the jury is still out...I personally will be looking for valid B/O's and will began putting my foot in the water if I find some that look good. However I too am a little skeptical of this particular rally and will not as yet be "gung ho" but rather squeeze in gently. Regards, Ziggy Dave Rubin wrote: > Today counts as a follow through of the rally that began last Monday. It is > on the 5th day and breadth is also increasing. > > But O'Neill also said that the market needs more consolidation time. So > should this follow-through be ignored? > > - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Patrick Wahl" Subject: [CANSLIM] a few stocks Date: 25 Apr 2000 20:06:02 -0600 Here are some stocks whose charts looked pretty good to me today, some breakouts, of course, do some homework on these - IFIN CDWC APPB IMPH - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Walter Stock Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] M Date: 25 Apr 2000 22:20:59 -0400 Following is part of Marder's article in TradingMarkets.com (best site on the net... pays for itself). Seems pretty clear he considers it a follow-through day: "An O'Neil follow-through day in the Naz, replete with superb participation. Volume, however, wasn't up to snuff. Monday's late turnaround and Tuesday's weighty move in the glamours are good examples of how quickly an oversold market can snap back. At all times, then, and no matter how grim the growth sector appears, it's important for the position trader to have a shopping list...a list of those names holding up better than the rest of the pack and, hopefully, forming bases. For when the bear market is definitively over, the best names will move out at an astonishingly rapid pace, many pausing for just days at a time before taking off anew... It's your job, as an intermediate player, to latch onto those issues showing the best tape action coming out of bases. Often, the biggest winners are the toughest to buy. These are the ones that give you scant time in which to establish a position before lifting off. By continually pruning and updating your watch list, you'll be positively ready when the time comes to take action from the long side... As spoken about in this space Monday, it's the semis, semi equipments, and other electronics-related groups that are now showing setups...the first setups seen in a number of weeks inside the growth complex. Not lots and lots of setups. But a few here and there, some of which were listed Monday in this space." Later in the article, Marder says that he "tiptoed" back into the market today, after being 100% cash for the past several weeks. Tomorrow, I may join him and stick my toe in. Sentiment numbers come out tomorrow and should be interesting. IBD will have them Thursday. Walter Stock Oakville, ON, Canada Patrick Wahl wrote: > One more opinion, I am not a subscriber to Trading markets, but went to > the front page anyway, this was the quote under the Kevin Marder link - > > An O'Neil follow-through day in the Naz, replete with superb participation > So sounds like Marder thinks it was a follow through day. - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Surindra Singh Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] M Date: 25 Apr 2000 22:19:22 -0400 I am glad to see this list getting active again. It is a better sign historically than any of the follow through days described by our leader WON... Have a great trading. Surindra -----Original Message----- [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of Patrick Wahl Sent: Tuesday, April 25, 2000 9:42 PM One more opinion, I am not a subscriber to Trading markets, but went to the front page anyway, this was the quote under the Kevin Marder link - An O'Neil follow-through day in the Naz, replete with superb participation So sounds like Marder thinks it was a follow through day. On 25 Apr 00, at 17:39, walter nusbaum wrote: > Werner, Tim, & Ziggy, > Werner, thanks for starting the thread. Tim, thanks for the detailed > explanation. Ziggy, thanks for your initiative in calling IBD. > > At last, I think I've got it! In HTMMIS, WON talks about a "second > confirmation". He also talks about a "first indication" of a market bottom, > but is not clear(to me) what the "first confirmation" is. > > I have erroneously held in my mind that a 2nd follow through was the 2nd > "confirmation". I see now that his first "indication" is also his first > "confirmation". > I wish he had worded that a little differently, but thanks to you guys, now > I've got it! > Best wishes, > Walt > > ----- Original Message ----- > From: > To: > Sent: Tuesday, April 25, 2000 4:45 PM > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] M > > > > Werner, I also believe it was a follow thru day today...day 6 of > > the rally that began 5 days ago...I believe that rally was still > > in effect unless the intraday low of 5 days ago was undercut and > > it wasn't. > > > > I also called IBD's education line and asked if this was day 6 of > > the current rally and considered a F/T day by them...and they > > responded that is was and when I explained my above thinking they > > replied "you got it!" > > > > Regards, > > Ziggy > > > > Werner Vandewiele wrote: > > > > > Looks like a follow thru day to me folks! > > > > > > On the Nasdaq that is. > > > > > > Up more than 1% on volume higher than the previous day, right? > > > > > > Regards, > > > > > > <<< Werner Vandewiele >>> > > > > > > - > > > > > > - > > > > > > - > - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Earl Setser Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] M Date: 25 Apr 2000 20:33:12 -0600 I agree. By my reckoning, this was an FT day on all 3 indexes (assuming you felt one was needed for the S&P500 and Dow). I started counting on Monday last week as the first day of the rally. Today comes in as day 6. Yesterday's action was weak, but neither the intraday low or closing low from the "bottom" was violated. From our earlier conversations, I read this to say the rally was intact. Interestingly enough, IBD had some words this morning that talked about how the last 2 rallies were on lower volume and both failed. I believe the 2nd rally they mentioned was the one we have going. I discussed this with a friend as seeming a little premature for this latest rally. Hmm, I wonder what tomorrow's paper will say? Looking for breakouts today, I didn't really find anything on my list. One stock that may have broken out is my company, L3 Communications. I'm not recommending it (and probably won't add any to my very small holdings), but the action today looked pretty good. There are several stocks looking poised to move up if we get a quick confirmation of the FT day tomorrow. At 11:13 PM 4/25/00 +0200, you wrote: >This is the 6th day after the recent EOD low (3321.29). > We are up more than 1% on volume that is higher than the previous day. >Volume is not THAT much higher, but good enough to be good for a reasonable >FT day. Last I saw volume was 7% higher than yesterday. don't have final >number yet. > >This a follow thru day folks. Time to hit the books again, if ya don't >believe me. > > >At 01:13 PM 25-04-00 -0700, you wrote: > >>Follow through happens 4 through 7 days *after* a start of a rally. >> >>I would say that this is the start of a rally. >> >>Regards, >>Shah >> >>On Tue, 25 Apr 2000, Werner Vandewiele wrote: >> >> > Looks like a follow thru day to me folks! >> > >> > On the Nasdaq that is. >> > >> > Up more than 1% on volume higher than the previous day, right? >> > >> > >> > Regards, >> > >> > <<< Werner Vandewiele >>> >> > >> > >> > - >> > >> > >> >> >>- > >Regards, > ><<< Werner Vandewiele >>> > > >- > > > - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Earl Setser Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] O'Neill Follow Through Date: 25 Apr 2000 20:40:39 -0600 At 06:44 PM 4/25/00 -0700, you wrote: Lots of good stuff and then.... >..I personally will be looking for valid B/O's >and will began putting my foot in the water if I find some that look good. >However I too am a little skeptical of this particular rally and will not as >yet be "gung ho" but rather squeeze in gently. > >Regards, >Ziggy > EXACTLY!!! I'm going to look at some candidates closely tonight, and look for some strong action tomorrow. Given good action, I might nibble into one position or two. This would put me at 33% invested. I don't think I want to move more than that until we see a better indication of leadership and a little more continuation of this rally. Protect that capital everyone!!! - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Harlan Pyan Subject: [CANSLIM] Re: follow thru day? Date: 25 Apr 2000 23:19:18 -0500 Correct me if I'm wrong however all I've really seen thus far is that yesterday was a reversal day and today is day one of a 1234. As far as a follow thru day is concerned I'd have to say that we need to have a few things happen on the OTC 1. 4th thru 10th day see a 1% follow thru to the upside on good volume or should I say a 3 to 4% up day due to volitility. 2. A crossover of 3880 that was put in on last Tues. 3. And How bout the leadership (semi's) crossing over theyre downtrend lines since peaking, sure theyre bumping up against them now (some are some arent,mixed bag)but they need to stick above them for the next few days. 4. and most importantly no lack of SOLID BASING STUCTURES out there. I dont see enough of them out there to sustain a move of any magnitude currently. Anybody else see any? For now? All I really see is a highly emotional market and a lot of damage thats been done that isnt going to work itself off in a week or two. We need to establish all new basing structures before we can get to throw darts times again, at least intech land. I'd look at the OTC this way resistance 3880 support 3227 or an undercut. when you look at those two numbers and a chart of the OTC all you really have to know is that we'll be locked in a trading range for awhile most likely around those two numbers As for bright spots? POG,SII these are nice trendline trades that trade off of theyre 50day MAverages. Just food for thought. Hi TIM F! been awhile hey! Johan you still out there? Dan M Where have you been hiding ! Harlan Just a thought. - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] M Date: 25 Apr 2000 23:44:23 -0400 To add to this, in two days the DGO list already had 71 stocks on it, compared to last week's shortened total of 72, so by this weekend it could show solid growth, or at least a lot of congregating at or near highs. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html ----- Original Message ----- Sent: Tuesday, April 25, 2000 5:54 PM P.S. I see many potential "leaders blowing out of bases" today. AMD has been for a week; AC, APH, AXE, ADCT, ADBE, ALTR, APCC, are all within a hair of their 52-week highs, and indeed most closed at their closing all-time highs. I don't think you need to go past the "A's" to find the new leadership. In case you feel the need to, PLXS, POOL, TER, TNL, are all at new highs. PWR & VSH are basing. FWIW the following are all 80/80/80/ABC and are within 15% of the 52-wk high: AC ADBE ALTR AMK AMKR APCC APH AXE AZZ BARZ CHP CVG EMC ESIO FII HC HDI HH NLCS PHG PLMD PLXS POOL PWR TER TNL VSH WDR Disc: I own not nearly enough of these, namely ADBE & AMD. On 02:13 PM 4/25/00, Werner Vandewiele Said: >This is the 6th day after the recent EOD low (3321.29). > We are up more than 1% on volume that is higher than the previous day. > Volume is not THAT much higher, but good enough to be good for a > reasonable FT day. Last I saw volume was 7% higher than yesterday. don't > have final number yet. > >This a follow thru day folks. Time to hit the books again, if ya don't >believe me. > > >At 01:13 PM 25-04-00 -0700, you wrote: > >>Follow through happens 4 through 7 days *after* a start of a rally. >> >>I would say that this is the start of a rally. >> >>Regards, >>Shah >> >>On Tue, 25 Apr 2000, Werner Vandewiele wrote: >> >> > Looks like a follow thru day to me folks! >> > >> > On the Nasdaq that is. >> > >> > Up more than 1% on volume higher than the previous day, right? >> > >> > >> > Regards, >> > >> > <<< Werner Vandewiele >>> >> > >> > >> > - >> > >> > >> >> >>- > >Regards, > ><<< Werner Vandewiele >>> > > >- Tim Fisher Ore-Rock-On and Pacific Fishery Biologists WWW Sites Tim@OreRockOn.com WWW: http://OreRockOn.com See naked fish and rocks! - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] DGO List - Part one Date: 25 Apr 2000 23:56:46 -0400 Dwayne, I can only speak for my requirements. I am not a IBD subscriber, but when I was it was waiting on the lawn in the morning with my local paper, so timeliness was not an issue. What do I dislike about DGO? Primarily its lack of searching/screening ability, tho the last upgrade they did improve this with more reports, and they are easily transportable into Excel or Lotus. I also want access to all stocks, and even the index to the books only includes the stocks in the books, not all stocks. I use another site for daily lists of stocks hitting new highs, not DGO. What do I like about DGO? It has every stock trading except preferred, mutual funds, warrants, units etc. Charts come up fast, and are current throughout the week (contrasting to the books weekly picture). Now every stock (not just those in the books) have both a chart and a data block display. The lists are easily sorted even if you don't have excel on a single column. You can scroll thru a list with just two keystrokes per stock. You can maintain your watch list there, and scroll thru it with just two keystrokes per stock (ok, I'm lazy, I hate having to type stock symbols every day). At $530/year, the cost is reasonable for the amount I use it. Customer service is the most responsive I have found on the net, often answering my concerns late at night or on the weekend. Data is consistent with what I am used to. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html ----- Original Message ----- Sent: Tuesday, April 25, 2000 7:02 PM I need advice... I can bet on the answer.... I was thinking on subscribing to DGO. I am an IBD sub. but I get it a day late. What are the pros and cons of the DGO... All comments welcome. Thanks Dwayne P. Andras MSN, CCRN, RN, CS, ACNP, APRN DeeAndras@cajun.net - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Luke Lang Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] Follow through's Date: 25 Apr 2000 23:28:43 -0700 (PDT) John, Here is my first attempt at a scan. It did confirm NASDAQ as a follow-through day today. I hope you find it useful. I welcome any suggestions. I am not very clear on the definition of a distribution day. If anyone can help to define it, I will try to write a scan. Best regards, Luke Lang PS: I tried to scan all stocks in QP2, but it kept on complaining about not being able to load more than 10 days. I don't know what the problems are. When I limit the scan to a smaller list of stock, it worked well. Input="luke.lst"; Output="lkfollow.lst"; Integer i, rallyday; DaysToLoad = 50; // proceed only if up 1% on higher volume If (Close(0) >= 1.01 * Close(-1)) and (Vol(0) > Vol(-1)) then rallyday := 0; // find first rally day, which is also up 1% on higher volume For i = -3 to -10 step -1 Do If (Close(i) >= 1.01 * Close(i-1)) and (Vol(i) > Vol(i-1)) and (rallyday = 0) then rallyday := i; endif; next i; // make sure the low on rally day is intact For i = 0 to rallyday+1 step -1 Do If Low(i) < Low(rallyday) then rallyday := 0; endif; next i; If not (rallyday = 0) then println symbol, ",", rallyday; endif; endif; --- John Adair wrote: > > would you go ahead and place this formula into a > search. > another good search would be to pick out the stocks > which are undergoing > distribution. Perhaps you could help us with that > to. > -----Original Message----- > From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com > [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf > Of Luke Lang > Sent: Wednesday, April 12, 2000 1:12 AM > To: canslim@lists.xmission.com > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Follow through's > > > It seems to me that we should be able to quantify > what > constitutes a follow through day and write a scan > for > charting programs to identify it. I will take the > first stab at it. Please correct me if I'm wrong. > > I will use QP2's notation. Close(0) and Vol(0) are > today's closing price and volume. Close(-1) and > Vol(-1) are yesterday's close and volume. > > A follow through day is identified if all of the > following conditions are met: > 1) Close(0) >= 1.01 * Close(-1) => closing up by 1% > 2) Vol(0) > Vol(-1) => on higher volume > For i = 3 to 10, > 3) Close(-i) >= 1.01 * Close(-i-1) => first rally > attempt 3 to 10 days ago > 4) Vol(-i) > Vol(-i-1) => on higher volume > > Conditions 3) and 4) only have to be met for one day > between 3 and 10 days ago. > > Are there any other conditions that one should add? > Thanks. > > Best regards, > Luke Lang > __________________________________________________ Do You Yahoo!? Send online invitations with Yahoo! Invites. http://invites.yahoo.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Re: follow thru day? Date: 26 Apr 2000 01:22:28 -0400 Hi Harlan, A rally must start someplace, and I am persuaded that we presently meet the requirements of WON's rules. In addition to what has already been said about FT days, and where we count from, and how many days, etc., I would add that today's action did not undercut the most immediate intraday or closing lows; started at brief basing levels from before; closed above resistance levels from before; but also lacked the volume confirmations needed. If I was not already 100% invested (told you I was a risk taker), I would be inclined to wait a day or two at least and see if a trend develops. After all, this market has been marked by Naz up a near record one day, and down a near record the next. And Naz up while NYSE down, and vice versa. So one day clearly, despite the strong earnings reports, does not set a pattern. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html ----- Original Message ----- Sent: Wednesday, April 26, 2000 12:19 AM Correct me if I'm wrong however all I've really seen thus far is that yesterday was a reversal day and today is day one of a 1234. As far as a follow thru day is concerned I'd have to say that we need to have a few things happen on the OTC 1. 4th thru 10th day see a 1% follow thru to the upside on good volume or should I say a 3 to 4% up day due to volitility. 2. A crossover of 3880 that was put in on last Tues. 3. And How bout the leadership (semi's) crossing over theyre downtrend lines since peaking, sure theyre bumping up against them now (some are some arent,mixed bag)but they need to stick above them for the next few days. 4. and most importantly no lack of SOLID BASING STUCTURES out there. I dont see enough of them out there to sustain a move of any magnitude currently. Anybody else see any? For now? All I really see is a highly emotional market and a lot of damage thats been done that isnt going to work itself off in a week or two. We need to establish all new basing structures before we can get to throw darts times again, at least intech land. I'd look at the OTC this way resistance 3880 support 3227 or an undercut. when you look at those two numbers and a chart of the OTC all you really have to know is that we'll be locked in a trading range for awhile most likely around those two numbers As for bright spots? POG,SII these are nice trendline trades that trade off of theyre 50day MAverages. Just food for thought. Hi TIM F! been awhile hey! Johan you still out there? Dan M Where have you been hiding ! Harlan Just a thought. - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: rolatzi Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] DGO List - Part one Date: 26 Apr 2000 06:02:25 -0700 (PDT) You could consider quotes plus as an alternative. It has extensive scanning capabilities, now has EPS and RS ratings (which I would like to compare to DGO) and is twenty something dollars a month with discounts for 6 month or 1 year subs. --- Tom Worley wrote: > Dwayne, > > I can only speak for my requirements. I am not a IBD > subscriber, > but when I was it was waiting on the lawn in the morning > with my > local paper, so timeliness was not an issue. > > What do I dislike about DGO? Primarily its lack of > searching/screening ability, tho the last upgrade they > did > improve this with more reports, and they are easily > transportable > into Excel or Lotus. I also want access to all stocks, > and even > the index to the books only includes the stocks in the > books, not > all stocks. I use another site for daily lists of stocks > hitting > new highs, not DGO. > > What do I like about DGO? It has every stock trading > except > preferred, mutual funds, warrants, units etc. Charts come > up > fast, and are current throughout the week (contrasting to > the > books weekly picture). Now every stock (not just those > in the > books) have both a chart and a data block display. The > lists are > easily sorted even if you don't have excel on a single > column. > You can scroll thru a list with just two keystrokes per > stock. > You can maintain your watch list there, and scroll thru > it with > just two keystrokes per stock (ok, I'm lazy, I hate > having to > type stock symbols every day). At $530/year, the cost is > reasonable for the amount I use it. Customer service is > the most > responsive I have found on the net, often answering my > concerns > late at night or on the weekend. Data is consistent with > what I > am used to. > > Tom Worley > stkguru@netside.net > chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 > get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html > > > ----- Original Message ----- > From: Dwayne Andras > To: > Sent: Tuesday, April 25, 2000 7:02 PM > Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] DGO List - Part one > > > I need advice... I can bet on the answer.... I was > thinking on > subscribing > to DGO. I am an IBD sub. but I get it a day late. What > are the > pros and > cons of the DGO... All comments welcome. > > Thanks > > > > > > Dwayne P. Andras MSN, CCRN, RN, CS, ACNP, APRN > > DeeAndras@cajun.net > > > > - > > > > - > __________________________________________________ Do You Yahoo!? Send online invitations with Yahoo! Invites. http://invites.yahoo.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Follow through's Date: 26 Apr 2000 06:32:27 -0700 Hi Luke, Re: your second instruction: The 1st rally day does not have to be up >1% on increased volume...only up from the previous day with volume not a factor. Regards, Ziggy Luke Lang wrote: > John, > > Here is my first attempt at a scan. It did confirm > NASDAQ as a follow-through day today. I hope you find > it useful. I welcome any suggestions. > > I am not very clear on the definition of a > distribution day. If anyone can help to define it, I > will try to write a scan. > > Best regards, > Luke Lang > > PS: I tried to scan all stocks in QP2, but it kept on > complaining about not being able to load more than 10 > days. I don't know what the problems are. When I > limit the scan to a smaller list of stock, it worked > well. > > Input="luke.lst"; > Output="lkfollow.lst"; > > Integer i, rallyday; > > DaysToLoad = 50; > > // proceed only if up 1% on higher volume > If (Close(0) >= 1.01 * Close(-1)) and > (Vol(0) > Vol(-1)) then > rallyday := 0; > > // find first rally day, which is also up 1% on > higher volume > For i = -3 to -10 step -1 > Do > If (Close(i) >= 1.01 * Close(i-1)) and > (Vol(i) > Vol(i-1)) and > (rallyday = 0) then > rallyday := i; > endif; > next i; > > // make sure the low on rally day is intact > For i = 0 to rallyday+1 step -1 > Do > If Low(i) < Low(rallyday) then > rallyday := 0; > endif; > next i; > > If not (rallyday = 0) then > println symbol, ",", rallyday; > endif; > endif; > > --- John Adair wrote: > > > > would you go ahead and place this formula into a > > search. > > another good search would be to pick out the stocks > > which are undergoing > > distribution. Perhaps you could help us with that > > to. > > -----Original Message----- > > From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com > > [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf > > Of Luke Lang > > Sent: Wednesday, April 12, 2000 1:12 AM > > To: canslim@lists.xmission.com > > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Follow through's > > > > > > It seems to me that we should be able to quantify > > what > > constitutes a follow through day and write a scan > > for > > charting programs to identify it. I will take the > > first stab at it. Please correct me if I'm wrong. > > > > I will use QP2's notation. Close(0) and Vol(0) are > > today's closing price and volume. Close(-1) and > > Vol(-1) are yesterday's close and volume. > > > > A follow through day is identified if all of the > > following conditions are met: > > 1) Close(0) >= 1.01 * Close(-1) => closing up by 1% > > 2) Vol(0) > Vol(-1) => on higher volume > > For i = 3 to 10, > > 3) Close(-i) >= 1.01 * Close(-i-1) => first rally > > attempt 3 to 10 days ago > > 4) Vol(-i) > Vol(-i-1) => on higher volume > > > > Conditions 3) and 4) only have to be met for one day > > between 3 and 10 days ago. > > > > Are there any other conditions that one should add? > > Thanks. > > > > Best regards, > > Luke Lang > > > > __________________________________________________ > Do You Yahoo!? > Send online invitations with Yahoo! Invites. > http://invites.yahoo.com > > - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Alexander T Subject: [CANSLIM] Yesterday's Follow through Date: 26 Apr 2000 09:48:45 -0400 (EDT) Hi, Today's ibd mentions yesterday's follow through on Nasdaq and Dow. They go on to say that Nasdaq's follow through is weak due to a recent cave in ,but dow's looks stronger. Then they say that it's enough to see a FT on one of the indexes. Can someone explain to me why? Have we not seen recently how dow and nasdaq can diverge, so seeing a FT day on dow may not be enough to start buying techs on nasdaq ?! Thanks ______________________________________________ FREE Personalized Email at Mail.com Sign up at http://www.mail.com/?sr=signup - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "marclaniado" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Re: follow thru day? Date: 26 Apr 2000 13:40:05 +0100 Hi Tom, Thank you for comments. Overall volume on the NASDAQ seemed light but the A/D was in favour with volume in advancing stocks much bigger than declining. Does anyone know what the Big Picture comment is in IBD today? ----- Original Message ----- Sent: Wednesday, April 26, 2000 6:22 AM > Hi Harlan, > > A rally must start someplace, and I am persuaded that we > presently meet the requirements of WON's rules. In addition to > what has already been said about FT days, and where we count > from, and how many days, etc., I would add that today's action > did not undercut the most immediate intraday or closing lows; > started at brief basing levels from before; closed above > resistance levels from before; but also lacked the volume > confirmations needed. If I was not already 100% invested (told > you I was a risk taker), I would be inclined to wait a day or two > at least and see if a trend develops. After all, this market has > been marked by Naz up a near record one day, and down a near > record the next. And Naz up while NYSE down, and vice versa. So > one day clearly, despite the strong earnings reports, does not > set a pattern. > > Tom Worley > stkguru@netside.net > chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 > get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html > > > ----- Original Message ----- > From: Harlan Pyan > To: > Sent: Wednesday, April 26, 2000 12:19 AM > Subject: [CANSLIM] Re: follow thru day? > > > Correct me if I'm wrong however all I've really seen thus far is > that yesterday was a > reversal day and today is day one of a 1234. As far as a follow > thru day is concerned > I'd have to say that we need to have a few things happen on the > OTC > 1. 4th thru 10th day see a 1% follow thru to the upside on good > volume or should I > say a 3 to 4% up day due to volitility. > 2. A crossover of 3880 that was put in on last Tues. > 3. And How bout the leadership (semi's) crossing over theyre > downtrend lines since > peaking, sure theyre bumping up against them now (some are some > arent,mixed bag)but > they need to stick above them for the next few days. > 4. and most importantly no lack of SOLID BASING STUCTURES out > there. I dont see > enough of them out there to sustain a move of any magnitude > currently. > Anybody else see any? > > For now? All I really see is a highly emotional market and a lot > of damage thats been > done that isnt going to work itself off in a week or two. We need > to establish all > new basing structures before we can get to throw darts times > again, at least intech > land. > > I'd look at the OTC this way > resistance 3880 > support 3227 or an undercut. > when you look at those two numbers and a chart of the OTC all you > really have to know > is that we'll be locked in a trading range for awhile most likely > around those two > numbers > As for bright spots? POG,SII these are nice trendline trades > that trade off of > theyre 50day MAverages. > Just food for thought. > > Hi TIM F! been awhile hey! > Johan you still out there? > Dan M Where have you been hiding ! > Harlan > > Just a thought. > > > - > > > > - > > - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Earl Setser Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Follow through's Date: 26 Apr 2000 08:36:55 -0600 I don't agree. This is from WON's 26 course, lesson 14, How to Spot When the Market Bottoms, "One of these attempted rallies will finally ''follow through,'' showing real power, indicated by one or more of the indexes (Dow, S&P 500 or Nasdaq composite) closing up 1% or more, with a significant jump in volume from the day before." It seems that the "significant jump in volume" hasn't been used by IBD lately. I believe they confirmed a follow-through a while back with a very small increase in volume. However, I think it's clear that volume is part of the picture. At 06:32 AM 4/26/00 -0700, you wrote: >Hi Luke, > >Re: your second instruction: >The 1st rally day does not have to be up >1% on increased >volume...only up from the previous day with volume not a >factor. > >Regards, >Ziggy > > >Luke Lang wrote: > >> John, >> >> Here is my first attempt at a scan. It did confirm >> NASDAQ as a follow-through day today. I hope you find >> it useful. I welcome any suggestions. >> >> I am not very clear on the definition of a >> distribution day. If anyone can help to define it, I >> will try to write a scan. >> >> Best regards, >> Luke Lang >> >> PS: I tried to scan all stocks in QP2, but it kept on >> complaining about not being able to load more than 10 >> days. I don't know what the problems are. When I >> limit the scan to a smaller list of stock, it worked >> well. >> >> Input="luke.lst"; >> Output="lkfollow.lst"; >> >> Integer i, rallyday; >> >> DaysToLoad = 50; >> >> // proceed only if up 1% on higher volume >> If (Close(0) >= 1.01 * Close(-1)) and >> (Vol(0) > Vol(-1)) then >> rallyday := 0; >> >> // find first rally day, which is also up 1% on >> higher volume >> For i = -3 to -10 step -1 >> Do >> If (Close(i) >= 1.01 * Close(i-1)) and >> (Vol(i) > Vol(i-1)) and >> (rallyday = 0) then >> rallyday := i; >> endif; >> next i; >> >> // make sure the low on rally day is intact >> For i = 0 to rallyday+1 step -1 >> Do >> If Low(i) < Low(rallyday) then >> rallyday := 0; >> endif; >> next i; >> >> If not (rallyday = 0) then >> println symbol, ",", rallyday; >> endif; >> endif; >> >> --- John Adair wrote: >> > >> > would you go ahead and place this formula into a >> > search. >> > another good search would be to pick out the stocks >> > which are undergoing >> > distribution. Perhaps you could help us with that >> > to. >> > -----Original Message----- >> > From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com >> > [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf >> > Of Luke Lang >> > Sent: Wednesday, April 12, 2000 1:12 AM >> > To: canslim@lists.xmission.com >> > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Follow through's >> > >> > >> > It seems to me that we should be able to quantify >> > what >> > constitutes a follow through day and write a scan >> > for >> > charting programs to identify it. I will take the >> > first stab at it. Please correct me if I'm wrong. >> > >> > I will use QP2's notation. Close(0) and Vol(0) are >> > today's closing price and volume. Close(-1) and >> > Vol(-1) are yesterday's close and volume. >> > >> > A follow through day is identified if all of the >> > following conditions are met: >> > 1) Close(0) >= 1.01 * Close(-1) => closing up by 1% >> > 2) Vol(0) > Vol(-1) => on higher volume >> > For i = 3 to 10, >> > 3) Close(-i) >= 1.01 * Close(-i-1) => first rally >> > attempt 3 to 10 days ago >> > 4) Vol(-i) > Vol(-i-1) => on higher volume >> > >> > Conditions 3) and 4) only have to be met for one day >> > between 3 and 10 days ago. >> > >> > Are there any other conditions that one should add? >> > Thanks. >> > >> > Best regards, >> > Luke Lang >> > >> >> __________________________________________________ >> Do You Yahoo!? >> Send online invitations with Yahoo! Invites. >> http://invites.yahoo.com >> >> - > > >- > > > - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Follow through's Date: 26 Apr 2000 07:41:05 -0700 Hi Earl, You are talking about the F/T day and are correct...What I'm talking about is not the follow-through day but rather the 1st day of an attempted rally...the point from which you start counting looking for a follow-through day. On that day, volume is not a factor. Ziggy Earl Setser wrote: > I don't agree. This is from WON's 26 course, lesson 14, How to Spot When > the Market Bottoms, "One of these attempted rallies will finally ''follow > through,'' showing real power, indicated by one or more of the indexes > (Dow, S&P 500 or Nasdaq composite) closing up 1% or more, with a > significant jump in volume from the day before." > > It seems that the "significant jump in volume" hasn't been used by IBD > lately. I believe they confirmed a follow-through a while back with a very > small increase in volume. However, I think it's clear that volume is part > of the picture. > > At 06:32 AM 4/26/00 -0700, you wrote: > >Hi Luke, > > > >Re: your second instruction: > >The 1st rally day does not have to be up >1% on increased > >volume...only up from the previous day with volume not a > >factor. > > > >Regards, > >Ziggy > > > > > >Luke Lang wrote: > > > >> John, > >> > >> Here is my first attempt at a scan. It did confirm > >> NASDAQ as a follow-through day today. I hope you find > >> it useful. I welcome any suggestions. > >> > >> I am not very clear on the definition of a > >> distribution day. If anyone can help to define it, I > >> will try to write a scan. > >> > >> Best regards, > >> Luke Lang > >> > >> PS: I tried to scan all stocks in QP2, but it kept on > >> complaining about not being able to load more than 10 > >> days. I don't know what the problems are. When I > >> limit the scan to a smaller list of stock, it worked > >> well. > >> > >> Input="luke.lst"; > >> Output="lkfollow.lst"; > >> > >> Integer i, rallyday; > >> > >> DaysToLoad = 50; > >> > >> // proceed only if up 1% on higher volume > >> If (Close(0) >= 1.01 * Close(-1)) and > >> (Vol(0) > Vol(-1)) then > >> rallyday := 0; > >> > >> // find first rally day, which is also up 1% on > >> higher volume > >> For i = -3 to -10 step -1 > >> Do > >> If (Close(i) >= 1.01 * Close(i-1)) and > >> (Vol(i) > Vol(i-1)) and > >> (rallyday = 0) then > >> rallyday := i; > >> endif; > >> next i; > >> > >> // make sure the low on rally day is intact > >> For i = 0 to rallyday+1 step -1 > >> Do > >> If Low(i) < Low(rallyday) then > >> rallyday := 0; > >> endif; > >> next i; > >> > >> If not (rallyday = 0) then > >> println symbol, ",", rallyday; > >> endif; > >> endif; > >> > >> --- John Adair wrote: > >> > > >> > would you go ahead and place this formula into a > >> > search. > >> > another good search would be to pick out the stocks > >> > which are undergoing > >> > distribution. Perhaps you could help us with that > >> > to. > >> > -----Original Message----- > >> > From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com > >> > [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf > >> > Of Luke Lang > >> > Sent: Wednesday, April 12, 2000 1:12 AM > >> > To: canslim@lists.xmission.com > >> > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Follow through's > >> > > >> > > >> > It seems to me that we should be able to quantify > >> > what > >> > constitutes a follow through day and write a scan > >> > for > >> > charting programs to identify it. I will take the > >> > first stab at it. Please correct me if I'm wrong. > >> > > >> > I will use QP2's notation. Close(0) and Vol(0) are > >> > today's closing price and volume. Close(-1) and > >> > Vol(-1) are yesterday's close and volume. > >> > > >> > A follow through day is identified if all of the > >> > following conditions are met: > >> > 1) Close(0) >= 1.01 * Close(-1) => closing up by 1% > >> > 2) Vol(0) > Vol(-1) => on higher volume > >> > For i = 3 to 10, > >> > 3) Close(-i) >= 1.01 * Close(-i-1) => first rally > >> > attempt 3 to 10 days ago > >> > 4) Vol(-i) > Vol(-i-1) => on higher volume > >> > > >> > Conditions 3) and 4) only have to be met for one day > >> > between 3 and 10 days ago. > >> > > >> > Are there any other conditions that one should add? > >> > Thanks. > >> > > >> > Best regards, > >> > Luke Lang > >> > > >> > >> __________________________________________________ > >> Do You Yahoo!? > >> Send online invitations with Yahoo! Invites. > >> http://invites.yahoo.com > >> > >> - > > > > > >- > > > > > > > > - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Earl Setser Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Re: follow thru day? Date: 26 Apr 2000 08:57:08 -0600 They confirmed the FT days on all three averages. They discussed that the NASDAQ FT was relatively weak, but pointed out that the other two averages looked better, so the FT should be considered valid. After that, they went into a list of concerns about the market in general. "Still, you don't have to look hard to find reasons why this rally may flame out. First, a confirmed rally so early in a bear market tends to collapse...", etc. They mentioned the high bullish sentiment, that earnings is driving the rally, and 85% of S&P500 companies will have announced by the end of the week, then we go back to economy news. However, they again hedge with "But there's no use arguing with the market if leading stocks begin to break out and surge higher. A few Chips such as Teradyne and Altera hit highs Tuesday, making that sector the best bet for market leadership should the rally succeed." And finally, the final paragraph warns to be cautious, stay away from "too much margin", and cut losses quickly. I find that the Big Picture generally has some good info, but you really have to sort out the hedging they throw in it. I don't think I've seen a solid opinion of a top or a bottom in the article, (except a few weeks later in hindsight) and I guess that's to be expected. At 01:40 PM 4/26/00 +0100, you wrote: >Hi Tom, >Thank you for comments. Overall volume on the NASDAQ seemed light but the >A/D was in favour with volume in advancing stocks much bigger than >declining. >Does anyone know what the Big Picture comment is in IBD today? >----- Original Message ----- >From: Tom Worley >To: >Sent: Wednesday, April 26, 2000 6:22 AM >Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Re: follow thru day? > > >> Hi Harlan, >> >> A rally must start someplace, and I am persuaded that we >> presently meet the requirements of WON's rules. In addition to >> what has already been said about FT days, and where we count >> from, and how many days, etc., I would add that today's action >> did not undercut the most immediate intraday or closing lows; >> started at brief basing levels from before; closed above >> resistance levels from before; but also lacked the volume >> confirmations needed. If I was not already 100% invested (told >> you I was a risk taker), I would be inclined to wait a day or two >> at least and see if a trend develops. After all, this market has >> been marked by Naz up a near record one day, and down a near >> record the next. And Naz up while NYSE down, and vice versa. So >> one day clearly, despite the strong earnings reports, does not >> set a pattern. >> >> Tom Worley >> stkguru@netside.net >> chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 >> get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html >> >> >> ----- Original Message ----- >> From: Harlan Pyan >> To: >> Sent: Wednesday, April 26, 2000 12:19 AM >> Subject: [CANSLIM] Re: follow thru day? >> >> >> Correct me if I'm wrong however all I've really seen thus far is >> that yesterday was a >> reversal day and today is day one of a 1234. As far as a follow >> thru day is concerned >> I'd have to say that we need to have a few things happen on the >> OTC >> 1. 4th thru 10th day see a 1% follow thru to the upside on good >> volume or should I >> say a 3 to 4% up day due to volitility. >> 2. A crossover of 3880 that was put in on last Tues. >> 3. And How bout the leadership (semi's) crossing over theyre >> downtrend lines since >> peaking, sure theyre bumping up against them now (some are some >> arent,mixed bag)but >> they need to stick above them for the next few days. >> 4. and most importantly no lack of SOLID BASING STUCTURES out >> there. I dont see >> enough of them out there to sustain a move of any magnitude >> currently. >> Anybody else see any? >> >> For now? All I really see is a highly emotional market and a lot >> of damage thats been >> done that isnt going to work itself off in a week or two. We need >> to establish all >> new basing structures before we can get to throw darts times >> again, at least intech >> land. >> >> I'd look at the OTC this way >> resistance 3880 >> support 3227 or an undercut. >> when you look at those two numbers and a chart of the OTC all you >> really have to know >> is that we'll be locked in a trading range for awhile most likely >> around those two >> numbers >> As for bright spots? POG,SII these are nice trendline trades >> that trade off of >> theyre 50day MAverages. >> Just food for thought. >> >> Hi TIM F! been awhile hey! >> Johan you still out there? >> Dan M Where have you been hiding ! >> Harlan >> >> Just a thought. >> >> >> - >> >> >> >> - >> >> > > > >- > > > - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Earl Setser Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Follow through's Date: 26 Apr 2000 08:57:38 -0600 Whoops, I guess I do agree then. At 07:41 AM 4/26/00 -0700, you wrote: >Hi Earl, >You are talking about the F/T day and are correct...What I'm talking about is >not the follow-through day but rather the 1st day of an attempted rally...the >point from which you start counting looking for a follow-through day. On that >day, volume is not a factor. >Ziggy > >Earl Setser wrote: > >> I don't agree. This is from WON's 26 course, lesson 14, How to Spot When >> the Market Bottoms, "One of these attempted rallies will finally ''follow >> through,'' showing real power, indicated by one or more of the indexes >> (Dow, S&P 500 or Nasdaq composite) closing up 1% or more, with a >> significant jump in volume from the day before." >> >> It seems that the "significant jump in volume" hasn't been used by IBD >> lately. I believe they confirmed a follow-through a while back with a very >> small increase in volume. However, I think it's clear that volume is part >> of the picture. >> >> At 06:32 AM 4/26/00 -0700, you wrote: >> >Hi Luke, >> > >> >Re: your second instruction: >> >The 1st rally day does not have to be up >1% on increased >> >volume...only up from the previous day with volume not a >> >factor. >> > >> >Regards, >> >Ziggy >> > >> > >> >Luke Lang wrote: >> > >> >> John, >> >> >> >> Here is my first attempt at a scan. It did confirm >> >> NASDAQ as a follow-through day today. I hope you find >> >> it useful. I welcome any suggestions. >> >> >> >> I am not very clear on the definition of a >> >> distribution day. If anyone can help to define it, I >> >> will try to write a scan. >> >> >> >> Best regards, >> >> Luke Lang >> >> >> >> PS: I tried to scan all stocks in QP2, but it kept on >> >> complaining about not being able to load more than 10 >> >> days. I don't know what the problems are. When I >> >> limit the scan to a smaller list of stock, it worked >> >> well. >> >> >> >> Input="luke.lst"; >> >> Output="lkfollow.lst"; >> >> >> >> Integer i, rallyday; >> >> >> >> DaysToLoad = 50; >> >> >> >> // proceed only if up 1% on higher volume >> >> If (Close(0) >= 1.01 * Close(-1)) and >> >> (Vol(0) > Vol(-1)) then >> >> rallyday := 0; >> >> >> >> // find first rally day, which is also up 1% on >> >> higher volume >> >> For i = -3 to -10 step -1 >> >> Do >> >> If (Close(i) >= 1.01 * Close(i-1)) and >> >> (Vol(i) > Vol(i-1)) and >> >> (rallyday = 0) then >> >> rallyday := i; >> >> endif; >> >> next i; >> >> >> >> // make sure the low on rally day is intact >> >> For i = 0 to rallyday+1 step -1 >> >> Do >> >> If Low(i) < Low(rallyday) then >> >> rallyday := 0; >> >> endif; >> >> next i; >> >> >> >> If not (rallyday = 0) then >> >> println symbol, ",", rallyday; >> >> endif; >> >> endif; >> >> >> >> --- John Adair wrote: >> >> > >> >> > would you go ahead and place this formula into a >> >> > search. >> >> > another good search would be to pick out the stocks >> >> > which are undergoing >> >> > distribution. Perhaps you could help us with that >> >> > to. >> >> > -----Original Message----- >> >> > From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com >> >> > [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf >> >> > Of Luke Lang >> >> > Sent: Wednesday, April 12, 2000 1:12 AM >> >> > To: canslim@lists.xmission.com >> >> > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Follow through's >> >> > >> >> > >> >> > It seems to me that we should be able to quantify >> >> > what >> >> > constitutes a follow through day and write a scan >> >> > for >> >> > charting programs to identify it. I will take the >> >> > first stab at it. Please correct me if I'm wrong. >> >> > >> >> > I will use QP2's notation. Close(0) and Vol(0) are >> >> > today's closing price and volume. Close(-1) and >> >> > Vol(-1) are yesterday's close and volume. >> >> > >> >> > A follow through day is identified if all of the >> >> > following conditions are met: >> >> > 1) Close(0) >= 1.01 * Close(-1) => closing up by 1% >> >> > 2) Vol(0) > Vol(-1) => on higher volume >> >> > For i = 3 to 10, >> >> > 3) Close(-i) >= 1.01 * Close(-i-1) => first rally >> >> > attempt 3 to 10 days ago >> >> > 4) Vol(-i) > Vol(-i-1) => on higher volume >> >> > >> >> > Conditions 3) and 4) only have to be met for one day >> >> > between 3 and 10 days ago. >> >> > >> >> > Are there any other conditions that one should add? >> >> > Thanks. >> >> > >> >> > Best regards, >> >> > Luke Lang >> >> > >> >> >> >> __________________________________________________ >> >> Do You Yahoo!? >> >> Send online invitations with Yahoo! Invites. >> >> http://invites.yahoo.com >> >> >> >> - >> > >> > >> >- >> > >> > >> > >> >> - > > >- > > > - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Tim Fisher Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Re: follow thru day? Date: 26 Apr 2000 08:43:13 -0700 Nice analysis Harlan but you're departing from HTMMIS (so what else is new?) Welcome back! 4/19 during the failed rally attempt the high was 3851 - I'd like to see a close above that level. Is that what you are referring to or does 3880 come from somewhere else? P.S. whoever was asking about the failed rallies - the first one ended 4/7 at 4446 and the second one on 4/18 at 3793. On 09:19 PM 4/25/00, Harlan Pyan Said: >Correct me if I'm wrong however all I've really seen thus far is that >yesterday was a >reversal day and today is day one of a 1234. As far as a follow thru day >is concerned >I'd have to say that we need to have a few things happen on the OTC >1. 4th thru 10th day see a 1% follow thru to the upside on good volume or >should I >say a 3 to 4% up day due to volitility. >2. A crossover of 3880 that was put in on last Tues. >3. And How bout the leadership (semi's) crossing over theyre downtrend >lines since >peaking, sure theyre bumping up against them now (some are some >arent,mixed bag)but >they need to stick above them for the next few days. >4. and most importantly no lack of SOLID BASING STUCTURES out there. I >dont see >enough of them out there to sustain a move of any magnitude currently. >Anybody else see any? > >For now? All I really see is a highly emotional market and a lot of damage >thats been >done that isnt going to work itself off in a week or two. We need to >establish all >new basing structures before we can get to throw darts times again, at >least intech >land. > >I'd look at the OTC this way >resistance 3880 >support 3227 or an undercut. >when you look at those two numbers and a chart of the OTC all you really >have to know >is that we'll be locked in a trading range for awhile most likely around >those two >numbers >As for bright spots? POG,SII these are nice trendline trades that trade >off of >theyre 50day MAverages. >Just food for thought. > >Hi TIM F! been awhile hey! >Johan you still out there? >Dan M Where have you been hiding ! >Harlan > >Just a thought. > > >- Tim Fisher Ore-Rock-On and Pacific Fishery Biologists WWW Sites Tim@OreRockOn.com WWW: http://OreRockOn.com See naked fish and rocks! - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: asosis@ca.ibm.com Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] DGO List - GIL Date: 26 Apr 2000 14:51:23 -0400 Hello all. I would like to ask your advice on GIL. I am a little confused by the recent GIL behavior. As Tom pointed out, it has been locked in the trading range, formed what appears to me 'triple bottom' and seems to have broken out on the 20th. However, it has closed down on both Monday and Tuesday on large (and increasing) volume. IT seems like it will do the same today. Does anyone know what kind of TA apply here? If it is forming C&H, shouldn't the volume decline? If this is a triple top reversal pattern, should it not have failed to break out? Also, if I wanted to buy it, what do you think the right price is? I calculate 33 to be the base (if you can call it that), so 5% above that gives 35.60 Sorry if my questions seem naive, I am trying to go 'by the book' here. "Tom Worley" on 04/22/2000 08:56:35 AM Please respond to canslim@lists.xmission.com cc: Happy Easter to all, but not apparently in the Cuban community. Judging by the volume (non volume??) of email in the group, seems not too many are thinking about stocks this weekend. But there are still a few of us otherwise without a life, that are trying to find you a few pearls when we are not watching reruns of masked US marshals kidnapping six year old boys in the middle of the night. If I didn't know better, I'd think I was in some third world country!! If the father truly wanted to see his son, why didn't he just fly into Miami?? I am amazed that Little Havana is not rioting this morning, I really respect the reaction as sentiments are pretty strong here. I am so disgusted with the US government, and DOJ in particular, right now. Why didn't they just kidnap the father and bring him here, he could have handled the trauma far better. I am sure Castro is smiling this morning. Anyway, enough politics, and I thought media stock commentators and lawyers were disgusting! The list this week starts at 72, down slightly from last week's at 79, and in line with the previous week of 71. Consolidation, maybe? Wouldn't be a bad option, certainly better than a retest of lows. An optimistic start for me, the very first one on the overall list is already on my watch list: ATMS, consolidating, caution, not only low priced (under 8) but also a small cap. GIL: - broke a new high on volume APH - nice recovery, looks good NBTY - lengthy consolidation, several failed breakouts ASGN - B3 PLXS - nice rally back near highs TWP - another nice funnel, B3+ ALTR - another nice consolidation, recovery, over 6 weeks HH - once again here, B3 APCC - 5 week consolidation CVG - another nice consolidation, volume needs to dry up CUNO - breakout starting on Thu, B6 RELL - consolidation EQT - B3 Sorry, I am too distracted by what is going on in my home community to look at more stock charts now. Will finish the list later. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Earl Setser Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] DGO List - GIL Date: 26 Apr 2000 18:51:55 -0600 At 02:51 PM 4/26/00 -0400, you wrote: > > >Hello all. > >I would like to ask your advice on GIL. > >I am a little confused by the recent GIL behavior. As Tom pointed out, it >has been locked in the trading range, formed what appears to me >'triple bottom' and seems to have broken out on the 20th. However, it has >closed down on both Monday and Tuesday on large (and increasing) volume. >IT seems like it will do the same today. Does anyone know what kind of TA >apply here? If it is forming C&H, shouldn't the volume decline? If this >is a triple top reversal pattern, should it not have failed to break out? >Also, if I wanted to buy it, what do you think the right price is? I >calculate 33 to be the base (if you can call it that), so 5% above that >gives 35.60 > >Sorry if my questions seem naive, I am trying to go 'by the book' here. > > > Looking at the chart, I would make the pivot at 35.5. That is just above the highest closing price (35.25 on 2/11). If you are interested in using the all-time high, then you get a pivot of 36.25. The stock then enters a 10 week base, which looks pretty much like you described, a triple bottom. I can't get a good cup and handle out of this, so I'll go with your description. There is a flag starting about 4/12, but the lows are rising and the highs are falling, so I would call that a flag. On 4/20 the stock breaks out on pretty good volume. I show the ADV at about 43,000 shares, and that makes the B/O about 2X ADV, pretty nice. But then the trouble starts, the stock trades lower (if only slightly) on VERY HIGH volume over the next two days. Today, the volume drops somewhat, but the price falls quite a bit on greater than 1.5 X ADV. I think this action is very suspect, and I wouldn't be surprised to see more weakness this week, particularly if the market falls some more. On the other hand, the stock may recover nicely tomorrow and break back above 35.25 or so. If it does on good volume, this could offer a second buying opp. WON states that many stocks will test the pivot point shortly after a breakout. I think he mentioned that volume was the best thing to watch in these cases. I certainly would consider any weakness from here a very bad sign. - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Robert Subject: [CANSLIM] Differant way to view stock charts Date: 26 Apr 2000 22:38:43 -0400 Hi all: I found this web site that shows Island bid/ask prices in 3d. Nice for the visual group members. http://www.3dstockcharts.com/index2.htm Robert __________________________________________________ Do You Yahoo!? Talk to your friends online with Yahoo! Messenger. http://im.yahoo.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Patrick Wahl" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] DGO List - GIL Date: 26 Apr 2000 21:05:54 -0600 On 26 Apr 00, at 14:51, asosis@ca.ibm.com wrote: > > > Hello all. > > I would like to ask your advice on GIL. > > I am a little confused by the recent GIL behavior. As Tom pointed out, it > has been locked in the trading range, formed what appears to me > 'triple bottom' and seems to have broken out on the 20th. However, it has > closed down on both Monday and Tuesday on large (and increasing) volume. > IT seems like it will do the same today. Does anyone know what kind of TA > apply here? If it is forming C&H, shouldn't the volume decline? If this > is a triple top reversal pattern, should it not have failed to break out? > Also, if I wanted to buy it, what do you think the right price is? I > calculate 33 to be the base (if you can call it that), so 5% above that > gives 35.60 I would not call that a triple bottom, that implies a stock that has been going down and hits a support point 3 times. I think it has formed a nice looking base. Also, not a C&H, more of a flat base. I think your buy point sounds about right, that was probably a breakout on April 20, but as you note, it has gone down on increased volume since then, so its now a failed breakout. I think now it has to hold up in the area of the most recent base, it probably shouldn't drop much below the recent lows around 29. Thats my read on the chart anyway, others may have a slightly different interpretation of things. - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] DGO List - GIL Date: 27 Apr 2000 00:39:51 -0400 I see today's action as a bit of a "capitulation" selloff following two days of decline, not much of a surprise when it couldn't rally yesterday. The selloff took it back to the 50dma, and it rallied some from there, closing back over the nearest one week base. So seems to me there is still some strength left in it. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html ----- Original Message ----- Sent: Wednesday, April 26, 2000 11:05 PM On 26 Apr 00, at 14:51, asosis@ca.ibm.com wrote: > > > Hello all. > > I would like to ask your advice on GIL. > > I am a little confused by the recent GIL behavior. As Tom pointed out, it > has been locked in the trading range, formed what appears to me > 'triple bottom' and seems to have broken out on the 20th. However, it has > closed down on both Monday and Tuesday on large (and increasing) volume. > IT seems like it will do the same today. Does anyone know what kind of TA > apply here? If it is forming C&H, shouldn't the volume decline? If this > is a triple top reversal pattern, should it not have failed to break out? > Also, if I wanted to buy it, what do you think the right price is? I > calculate 33 to be the base (if you can call it that), so 5% above that > gives 35.60 I would not call that a triple bottom, that implies a stock that has been going down and hits a support point 3 times. I think it has formed a nice looking base. Also, not a C&H, more of a flat base. I think your buy point sounds about right, that was probably a breakout on April 20, but as you note, it has gone down on increased volume since then, so its now a failed breakout. I think now it has to hold up in the area of the most recent base, it probably shouldn't drop much below the recent lows around 29. Thats my read on the chart anyway, others may have a slightly different interpretation of things. - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: [CANSLIM] Nice pivot point breakout in the midst of turmoil Date: 27 Apr 2000 00:51:06 -0400 If you want to see a nice b/o from a pivot point (unfortunately I missed it, tho had it on my watch list!! aarrrrggghhh), take a look at EPII - 99/77/A/A/A/A - wasn't even fazed by the recent mkt behavior - don't know if there was any news behind this move. It did report nice Q1 earnings, so nice to see good earnings rewarded for a change. boring industry, tho. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Subject: [CANSLIM] Message test Date: 27 Apr 2000 19:30:50 -0700 I have not received a CANSLIM e-mail from this group since yesterday...is the group just quiet or am I not getting mail? Market was more encouraging today after the early bad start...purchased ALTR and PLXS yesterday so that puts me at about 35% invested. Virtually all the stocks in my watchlist are nowhere near B/Os, in fact most are still in downtrends...they are mostly the large cap techs...VTSS BEAS ETEK QCOM CSCO...DTPI seems to be working on the right side of a cup. Ziggy - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Earl Setser Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Message test and M Date: 27 Apr 2000 22:02:08 -0600 Testing, did you get this one?? I've also tip-toed back into the market a little by picking up MTSN near the close today. I'm looking at a couple of possibles tomorrow, but I'm thinking a second position would put me at 33% invested (for CANSLIM), and that sounds like plenty right now. I was watching ALTR, ADCT, and PWAV, but I'm not sure if I'll look at others or try to pick up one of these (PWAV is just over 5%, the others are more extended I think.) There are quite a few good stocks that could emerge over the next week or so given a strong market, and I'm not ready to write-off some of these (SDL and AMCC come to mind, maybe AMAT.. a nice cup and handle would be a perfect way to get into these below those recent highs!!!) I'm still a little skeptical about this market, so I'm not willing to jump in very quick right now. At 07:30 PM 4/27/00 -0700, you wrote: >I have not received a CANSLIM e-mail from this group since >yesterday...is the group just quiet or am I not getting >mail? > >Market was more encouraging today after the early bad >start...purchased ALTR and PLXS yesterday so that puts me at >about 35% invested. Virtually all the stocks in my watchlist >are nowhere near B/Os, in fact most are still in >downtrends...they are mostly the large cap techs...VTSS BEAS >ETEK QCOM CSCO...DTPI seems to be working on the right side >of a cup. >Ziggy > > >- > > > - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Message test and M Date: 27 Apr 2000 22:13:46 -0700 Thanks Earl, I got yours and mine. Did you get any other CASLIM messages today? Ziggy Earl Setser wrote: > Testing, did you get this one?? > > I've also tip-toed back into the market a little by picking up MTSN near > the close today. I'm looking at a couple of possibles tomorrow, but I'm > thinking a second position would put me at 33% invested (for CANSLIM), and > that sounds like plenty right now. I was watching ALTR, ADCT, and PWAV, > but I'm not sure if I'll look at others or try to pick up one of these > (PWAV is just over 5%, the others are more extended I think.) There are > quite a few good stocks that could emerge over the next week or so given a > strong market, and I'm not ready to write-off some of these (SDL and AMCC > come to mind, maybe AMAT.. a nice cup and handle would be a perfect way to > get into these below those recent highs!!!) I'm still a little skeptical > about this market, so I'm not willing to jump in very quick right now. > > At 07:30 PM 4/27/00 -0700, you wrote: > >I have not received a CANSLIM e-mail from this group since > >yesterday...is the group just quiet or am I not getting > >mail? > > > >Market was more encouraging today after the early bad > >start...purchased ALTR and PLXS yesterday so that puts me at > >about 35% invested. Virtually all the stocks in my watchlist > >are nowhere near B/Os, in fact most are still in > >downtrends...they are mostly the large cap techs...VTSS BEAS > >ETEK QCOM CSCO...DTPI seems to be working on the right side > >of a cup. > >Ziggy > > > > > >- > > > > > > > > - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Earl Setser Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Message test and M Date: 28 Apr 2000 07:19:14 -0600 I think I saw a couple of messages from Tom when I got home, but I'm not sure if they were from Thursday or maybe late on Wed. Overall, it was pretty quiet. At 10:13 PM 4/27/00 -0700, you wrote: >Thanks Earl, >I got yours and mine. Did you get any other CASLIM messages today? >Ziggy > >Earl Setser wrote: > >> Testing, did you get this one?? >> >> I've also tip-toed back into the market a little by picking up MTSN near >> the close today. I'm looking at a couple of possibles tomorrow, but I'm >> thinking a second position would put me at 33% invested (for CANSLIM), and >> that sounds like plenty right now. I was watching ALTR, ADCT, and PWAV, >> but I'm not sure if I'll look at others or try to pick up one of these >> (PWAV is just over 5%, the others are more extended I think.) There are >> quite a few good stocks that could emerge over the next week or so given a >> strong market, and I'm not ready to write-off some of these (SDL and AMCC >> come to mind, maybe AMAT.. a nice cup and handle would be a perfect way to >> get into these below those recent highs!!!) I'm still a little skeptical >> about this market, so I'm not willing to jump in very quick right now. >> >> At 07:30 PM 4/27/00 -0700, you wrote: >> >I have not received a CANSLIM e-mail from this group since >> >yesterday...is the group just quiet or am I not getting >> >mail? >> > >> >Market was more encouraging today after the early bad >> >start...purchased ALTR and PLXS yesterday so that puts me at >> >about 35% invested. Virtually all the stocks in my watchlist >> >are nowhere near B/Os, in fact most are still in >> >downtrends...they are mostly the large cap techs...VTSS BEAS >> >ETEK QCOM CSCO...DTPI seems to be working on the right side >> >of a cup. >> >Ziggy >> > >> > >> >- >> > >> > >> > >> >> - > > >- > > > - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Tim Fisher Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Message test Date: 28 Apr 2000 07:55:54 -0700 Sounds like you need a new watch list. TER, POOL, AXE, ADCT, TNL & VSH broke out strong the past few days. Why would still be watching stocks who have clearly broken their uptrends and are much better short than long candidates right now? On 07:30 PM 4/27/00, wroblewski@uswest.net Said: >I have not received a CANSLIM e-mail from this group since >yesterday...is the group just quiet or am I not getting >mail? > >Market was more encouraging today after the early bad >start...purchased ALTR and PLXS yesterday so that puts me at >about 35% invested. Virtually all the stocks in my watchlist >are nowhere near B/Os, in fact most are still in >downtrends...they are mostly the large cap techs...VTSS BEAS >ETEK QCOM CSCO...DTPI seems to be working on the right side >of a cup. >Ziggy Tim Fisher Ore-Rock-On and Pacific Fishery Biologists WWW Sites Tim@OreRockOn.com WWW: http://OreRockOn.com See naked fish and rocks! - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: travis bolster Subject: [CANSLIM] Question? Date: 28 Apr 2000 12:14:38 -0700 (PDT) Does anyone know where I can find what stocks make up the differnt industry groups. For example the leader today (in IBD)is ELEC-SEMICONDUCTOR-MFG. What stocks make up this industry group and more specific who are the leaders? Thanks, Travis Bolster __________________________________________________ Do You Yahoo!? Talk to your friends online and get email alerts with Yahoo! Messenger. http://im.yahoo.com/ - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Pritish Shah Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Question? Date: 28 Apr 2000 12:26:25 -0700 (PDT) Go to yahoo. Type in a company (eg novellus) and then look at the research and over there you will see elec-manuf.mach The best source would be IBD or DGO. Regards, Shah On Fri, 28 Apr 2000, travis bolster wrote: > Does anyone know where I can find what stocks make up > the differnt industry groups. For example the leader > today (in IBD)is ELEC-SEMICONDUCTOR-MFG. What stocks > make up this industry group and more specific who are > the leaders? > > Thanks, > Travis Bolster > > __________________________________________________ > Do You Yahoo!? > Talk to your friends online and get email alerts with Yahoo! Messenger. > http://im.yahoo.com/ > > - > > - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Earl Setser Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Question? Date: 28 Apr 2000 13:45:52 -0600 There are 86 stocks in the ELEC-SEMICONDUCTOR-MFG group (IBD). The best way to find the leaders with IBD is to watch the"Follow the Leaders" feature in each day's paper. They are featuring 1 group a day, and mostly the groups are tech groups. If you have DGO, it would give you the top 5 (??I think) stocks in each group. IBD featured this group on 4/19, and the top 22 stocks at that point were: AMCC SILI CREE TQNT PMCS ARMHY SDLI QLGC BBRC AMKR SMTC XLNX VTSS MCRL ELNT ALTR ADI PSEM DIO TXN PLXS AMD At 12:14 PM 4/28/00 -0700, you wrote: >Does anyone know where I can find what stocks make up >the differnt industry groups. For example the leader >today (in IBD)is ELEC-SEMICONDUCTOR-MFG. What stocks >make up this industry group and more specific who are >the leaders? > >Thanks, >Travis Bolster > >__________________________________________________ >Do You Yahoo!? >Talk to your friends online and get email alerts with Yahoo! Messenger. >http://im.yahoo.com/ > >- > > > - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Tim Fisher Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Question? Date: 28 Apr 2000 13:00:54 -0700 I like ELEC COMP-MISC better. That group has had at least as many convincing breakouts the past few days as ELEC-SEMICONDUCTOR-MFG, and not nearly as many former "leaders" have corrected 30-50% On 12:45 PM 4/28/00, Earl Setser Said: >There are 86 stocks in the ELEC-SEMICONDUCTOR-MFG group (IBD). The best >way to find the leaders with IBD is to watch the"Follow the Leaders" >feature in each day's paper. They are featuring 1 group a day, and mostly >the groups are tech groups. If you have DGO, it would give you the top 5 >(??I think) stocks in each group. IBD featured this group on 4/19, and the >top 22 stocks at that point were: > >AMCC >SILI >CREE >TQNT >PMCS >ARMHY >SDLI >QLGC >BBRC >AMKR >SMTC >XLNX >VTSS >MCRL >ELNT >ALTR >ADI >PSEM >DIO >TXN >PLXS >AMD > > > > >At 12:14 PM 4/28/00 -0700, you wrote: > >Does anyone know where I can find what stocks make up > >the differnt industry groups. For example the leader > >today (in IBD)is ELEC-SEMICONDUCTOR-MFG. What stocks > >make up this industry group and more specific who are > >the leaders? > > > >Thanks, > >Travis Bolster > > Tim Fisher Ore-Rock-On and Pacific Fishery Biologists WWW Sites Tim@OreRockOn.com WWW: http://OreRockOn.com See naked fish and rocks! - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Tim Fisher Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Question? Date: 28 Apr 2000 13:21:54 -0700 That said, I just checked my CANSLIM account. AMCC has popped a cork to back over its 50dma. So one less has corrected 30% in ELEC-SEMICONDUCTOR-MFG. On 12:45 PM 4/28/00, Earl Setser Said: >There are 86 stocks in the ELEC-SEMICONDUCTOR-MFG group (IBD). The best >way to find the leaders with IBD is to watch the"Follow the Leaders" >feature in each day's paper. They are featuring 1 group a day, and mostly >the groups are tech groups. If you have DGO, it would give you the top 5 >(??I think) stocks in each group. IBD featured this group on 4/19, and the >top 22 stocks at that point were: > >AMCC >SILI >CREE >TQNT >PMCS >ARMHY >SDLI >QLGC >BBRC >AMKR >SMTC >XLNX >VTSS >MCRL >ELNT >ALTR >ADI >PSEM >DIO >TXN >PLXS >AMD > > > > >At 12:14 PM 4/28/00 -0700, you wrote: > >Does anyone know where I can find what stocks make up > >the differnt industry groups. For example the leader > >today (in IBD)is ELEC-SEMICONDUCTOR-MFG. What stocks > >make up this industry group and more specific who are > >the leaders? > > > >Thanks, > >Travis Bolster > > Tim Fisher Ore-Rock-On and Pacific Fishery Biologists WWW Sites Tim@OreRockOn.com WWW: http://OreRockOn.com See naked fish and rocks! - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Question? Date: 28 Apr 2000 23:26:42 -0400 DGO can actually give you the top six stocks in each group if you display the Data Block (f2) screen and select one of the top five. The box listing the top five stocks won't list the one displayed, so you will then have the top six. But a better and cheaper way is to just buy the book sold by IBD. It's about $20 and lists all 197 groups, and the stocks in each. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html ----- Original Message ----- Sent: Friday, April 28, 2000 3:45 PM There are 86 stocks in the ELEC-SEMICONDUCTOR-MFG group (IBD). The best way to find the leaders with IBD is to watch the"Follow the Leaders" feature in each day's paper. They are featuring 1 group a day, and mostly the groups are tech groups. If you have DGO, it would give you the top 5 (??I think) stocks in each group. IBD featured this group on 4/19, and the top 22 stocks at that point were: AMCC SILI CREE TQNT PMCS ARMHY SDLI QLGC BBRC AMKR SMTC XLNX VTSS MCRL ELNT ALTR ADI PSEM DIO TXN PLXS AMD At 12:14 PM 4/28/00 -0700, you wrote: >Does anyone know where I can find what stocks make up >the differnt industry groups. For example the leader >today (in IBD)is ELEC-SEMICONDUCTOR-MFG. What stocks >make up this industry group and more specific who are >the leaders? > >Thanks, >Travis Bolster > >__________________________________________________ >Do You Yahoo!? >Talk to your friends online and get email alerts with Yahoo! Messenger. >http://im.yahoo.com/ > >- > > > - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Werner Vandewiele Subject: [CANSLIM] Today marked the end of an era in investing. Date: 29 Apr 2000 11:43:00 +0200 Market Features: So Long, Soros: An Inside Look at the End of an Investing Era By Brett D. Fromson Chief Markets Writer 4/28/00 7:16 PM ET Today marked the end of an era in investing. One of the most profitable and best-known global hedge funds in history -- Soros Fund Management -- is history. While the fund said today that it will remain in operation after a "thorough reorganziation," make no mistake. It's over. After 31 1/2 years of beating the markets in everything from stocks and bonds to currencies and commodities, Soros came apart in a mere four weeks, according to interviews with George Soros, his departing senior portfolio manager, Stan Druckenmiller and other sources close to Soros. The story of how that happened speaks volumes about the ability of the market to surprise even the best traders, and the relentless pressure of managing money in the most volatile financial markets we have ever seen. The beginning of the end was April 4. That was the gut-wrenching day the Nasdaq Composite collapsed nearly 575, or 13.6%, before whipsawing back up to close down only 1.8%. Druckenmiller came into that day having already reduced the Quantum Fund's exposure to tech stocks in February and March. He had expected a 10% to 15% slide from the Comp's March 10 all-time high. But he made a significant error in judgment on Tuesday the 4th. He thought the V-shaped volatility of the day represented the end of the 10% to 15% correction in the Comp. Instead of dumping more tech stocks, as he and his associates thought perhaps they should, he hung tight. He could have sold tons of stock later that week as the market rallied. Slam!The door to the exits slammed shut the next week, specifically on Friday, April 14. The days leading up to that day were lousy, but Friday was the kicker. The market crashed that day, and unlike Tuesday the 4th, it did not snap back intraday. The Comp fell 10% and ended its worst week in history down 25.3% -- 34.2% below its March 10 high. The following Monday, Druckenmiller's associate, Nick Roditi, portfolio manager of Soros' other big investment vehicle, the Quota Fund, told associates that he was quitting the game. Not only was the London-based trader leaving Soros, he was getting out of the money management game altogether. Why? After all, he had previously experienced losing years interspersed between great years when he made 100% to 200% on Soros' money. The answer was that Roditi, whose trading style relies on enormous financial leverage -- at times as much as 300% of the underlying position -- was burned out. Quota had suffered enormous losses the prior week. He just did not want to do it anymore. He is rich. He has other business interests. He would just as soon live in Africa, his homeland, as in London. The End Is NearThe next day, Druckenmiller went into the firm's midtown Manhattan office and announced to Soros that he wanted a break, a sabbatical. The fund was too big and unwieldy. The year's gains tended to come from just a few big bets each year. If one went wrong, they could not get out. And the markets were more volatile than ever. And even in the best of times, George Soros has never been known as the easiest boss in the world. He is well-known for second-guessing his portfolio managers, which is his right, because he has about $4 billion in Quantum. It was not the first time that leaving had recently crossed Druckenmiller's mind. So why decide to step away on Tuesday, April 18th? After all, he was down about this much last year at this time. He came back from that and ended up garnering above a 40% gain for 1999. Why not one more time? Because, apparently, he was just too tired to wage the relentless war he knew it would take to recover. Soros himself had initially considered coming back to take over. Tensions were high at the prospect of the 69-year old speculator, fearful of a market crash, without his top portfolio managers running things again. After all, it had been 12 years since Soros has run money himself. An uneasy peace was maintained simply by their mutual needs to come to an equitable arrangement. Soros did not want his top lieutenants publicly cutting all ties to him and Quantum. And they wanted him to be generous if they had to leave, now that the firm effectively was being taken apart. It was not until this week that Soros decided not to come back but instead to make radical changes at his cherished firm. He decided that Quantum will no longer seek 30% returns. (That explains its new, dowdy name -- the Quantum Endowment Fund.) He decided also that the management of Quota will be outsourced to London-based money manager Michele Ragazzi of Newman Ragazzi. Soros will offer his clients the opportunity to stay in the new Quantum and Quota funds, but expects major departures. The firm already has raised enough cash to pay off every single client who might want out. It may be that the only client going forward will be Soros himself. He already has decided to break up his money into smaller management pools. Look for him to spread the money among five to 10 managers, some who now work for him and some who do not. The deals likely will be structured so that in exchange for him dropping several hundred million dollars on these managers and allowing them to take in additional clients, he'll get a share of their management fees. If there is one thing George Soros will not allow, it is for the market to take him out -- i.e., lose all his money. The new, nimbler, more diversified structure makes that less likely. Much of the weakness in tech stocks in the second half of April may have stemmed from selling pressure from Soros. In the third week of April, they were blowing out many positions. The selling is over, which may help explain the recent bottoming and rally we have seen in technology stocks. Call it the Soros bounce. Isn't it IronicThere is irony in Druckenmiller's departure. He made many of his most spectacular calls by selling into bullish manias and buying when there was panic. For example, he bought a ton of stock after the October 1987 crash. "This time," he said, "I overplayed my hand. I should have sold in February. I sold some. I thought it was the eighth inning when it was really the ninth." "I had an exit strategy," he said. "I was two weeks off, too late. I blew it. There was no exit. That was my biggest mistake." After he leaves Soros in June, Druckenmiller will remain head of Duquesne Capital Management, a small hedge fund he started before he joined Soros. Druckenmiller said that he has positioned Duquesne so that he can take the summer off, and plans to take his family on a trip to Africa. He said he will offer Duquesne's investors the opportunity to get out if they like. Don't expect too many Duquesne limited partners to leave. Druckenmiller remains one of the best investors around. Who knows, by Labor Day he might be back in business? As Druckenmiller said today, investing is "like a drug." He is a known addict. This is from: TheStreet.com's WEEKEND BULLETIN April 29, 2000 Regards, <<< Werner Vandewiele >>> - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Werner Vandewiele Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Re: follow thru day? [Mr. Pyan] Date: 29 Apr 2000 13:08:56 +0200 Mr. Pyan, you wrote: >Correct me if I'm wrong however all I've really seen thus far is that >yesterday was a >reversal day and today is day one of a 1234. Is this some part of CANSLIM that I have missed? > As far as a follow thru day is concerned >I'd have to say that we need to have a few things happen on the OTC Tuesday the 25th of April was a follow thru day. Marder. Kuhn, IBD and this list confirmed it. >1. 4th thru 10th day see a 1% follow thru to the upside on good volume or >should I >say a 3 to 4% up day due to volitility. Tuesday the 25th of April. >2. A crossover of 3880 that was put in on last Tues. What is a crossover? The high on Tuesday the 19th of April was 3851.56. Where does your 3880 figure come from? Is this another valid CANSLIM follow thru day requirement I have missed? Friday the 28th of April we broke 3851.56. Not convincingly maybe, be we did break it for now. >3. And How bout the leadership (semi's) crossing over theyre downtrend >lines since >peaking, Is this a valid CANSLIM requirement? It is a TA requirement, to confirm a potential trend change, IMHO. Besides, should one be looking at the SOX index for this? If so, no cigar IMHO. You need to look at the group leaders, not some standard index, no matter how convienient it is, IMHO. If you want an index that is remotely CANSLIM inspired then I would suggest one should make a surrogate index of the leaders. Done it? Can you see the trendline break now? >sure theyre bumping up against them now (some are some arent,mixed bag)but >they need to stick above them for the next few days. Sure. The more confirmation the better. But CANSLIM is not about being late to the party neither. Glad to see all the doubting though! Markets like to climb a wall of worry. And boy do we have that in place? Inflation/upcomming interest rate hikes, MSFT split-up, Soros funds down the drain, many ex-glamours down several 100%, big time overhead resistance in the leading indexes. When everything is starting to look as if it is "OK, to step in now" one is almost certainly late to the party. >4. and most importantly no lack of SOLID BASING STUCTURES out there. I >dont see >enough of them out there to sustain a move of any magnitude currently. >Anybody else see any? What would you expect after such a steep correction? The time factor has changed. In the past corrections took many months. There was time to form nice, solid bases. Now corrections are getting quicker and quicker. Many sometime in the future, it will all change once again. But for now they are quick and swift. This one if by far the quickest and steepest down. One can not form bases as we would like to see in such an environment. So what to do? We must look at what the stocks that have correct the least and/or camiing back the quickest are doing. And how can we play them succesfully now that we have had a follow thru day? Only one way: You want to minimize risk if you can't watch intraday. The by all means wait for bases to develop. They will be formed eventually. If you are quick, nimble and can watch intraday. Then, in this EXTRAORDINARY situation you can buy stocks that are starting to go up the right hand side of there pattern, when they break important down trendlines. Does it work? That how I've made 17.2% net since Tuesday's follow thru day. Do I recommend it to everyone? NO W-A-Y. {Read this over and over again pls until it hits home. Thank you.} >For now? All I really see is a highly emotional market No wonder. >and a lot of damage thats been >done that isnt going to work itself off in a week or two. Agreed. >We need to establish all >new basing structures before we can get to throw darts times again, at >least intech >land. Good risk/reward management. >I'd look at the OTC this way >resistance 3880 >support 3227 or an undercut. >when you look at those two numbers and a chart of the OTC all you really >have to know >is that we'll be locked in a trading range for awhile most likely around >those two >numbers >As for bright spots? POG,SII these are nice trendline trades that trade >off of >theyre 50day MAverages. >Just food for thought. > >Hi TIM F! been awhile hey! >Johan you still out there? >Dan M Where have you been hiding ! >Harlan > >Just a thought. > > >- Regards, <<< Werner Vandewiele >>> - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "WD Fleckenstein" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] M Date: 28 Apr 2000 21:35:18 -0700 Jim- Don't you think you should just continue to follow the CANSLIM method. Won't the mkt speak before the Fed finishes with rates? Dan -----Original Message----- I'm looking for a large enough rally (sucker or real) to get out of this volatile market until at least after the Fed is through raising rates and a clear trend is established. I would not feel comfortable buying OR shorting any time soon because of the volatility and the unpredictability of sentiment. - -Jim-- - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: han.26@osu.edu Subject: [CANSLIM] When M is good, DSPG explodes Date: 29 Apr 2000 10:32:39 -0700 Because I'm still nervous about the short term behavior of the Market, I decided to sell DSPG into the strength on Friday. Although it netted me +37% in fewer than 8 weeks [which encompassed the NAZ "super-correction"], I have a feeling I sold too early because DSPG meets ALL of the criteria for CANSLIM now that it has blown through its old high on nearly double volume (with the possible exception of technicals; its chart is erratic because of the April correction). The ONLY reason I didn't hold on longer is I'm still not convinced by the vigor of the supposed follow-throughs on the NASDAQ. Based on HTMMIS, DSPG displays the kind of bullish behavior of a stock that could easily double or triple. DSPG showed up again on the Weekend Review. Perhaps I'll gain the courage to pick DSPG up again once the NAZ feels solid. Anyone else still unconvinced by this Market? -Jim-- - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: [CANSLIM] Who would have expected this? Date: 29 Apr 2000 10:40:46 -0400 Year-to-date, all major indices continue to struggle. The Dow is the year's big loser, down 6.6%, with the Nasdaq following closely on its heels, down 5.1% since Jan. 1. Both the S&P 500 and America-iNvest.com MicroCap1000 indices are down 1% for the year. The Russell 2000 is the only index on the plus side, up 0.3% for the year. Go small caps! Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Werner Vandewiele Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] When M is good, DSPG explodes Date: 29 Apr 2000 16:47:35 +0200 At 10:32 AM 29-04-00 -0700, you wrote: >I have a feeling I >sold too early because DSPG meets ALL of the criteria for CANSLIM now that >it has >blown through its old high on nearly double volume Agreed. >The ONLY reason I didn't hold on longer is I'm still not convinced by the >vigor >of the supposed follow-throughs on the NASDAQ. Based on HTMMIS, DSPG displays >the kind of bullish behavior of a stock that could easily double or >triple. DSPG >showed up again on the Weekend Review. Perhaps I'll gain the courage to pick >DSPG up again once the NAZ feels solid. > >Anyone else still unconvinced by this Market? Is that a question or an observation? [Sorry, my sarcatic side was playing up.] At our near market bottoms, after severe corrections, people are supposed to be sceptical. So in that way I hope many (preferrably not on this list of course) to be 'still unconvinced'. FWIW. Regards, <<< Werner Vandewiele >>> - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Charles Dille" Subject: [CANSLIM] PWR Date: 29 Apr 2000 10:30:37 -0500 Quanta Services looks like it has popped again. What do you guys think? I think I am going to go with DSPG also. Go Market!! Charlie - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: [CANSLIM] DGO List Date: 29 Apr 2000 11:35:43 -0400 List not that much different this week, 80 vs 72, before that it was 79 then 71, so may suggest, despite the volatility, a consolidation overall between new and old economy stocks (NASDAQ vs NYSE). Bx = Base, x = nr of weeks ADCT - low volume breakout from an abbreviated handle of the cup NBTY - probably too late to buy this one, but nice volume b/o on stellar earnings TBL - base on ascending base?, B1 HH - Friday's volume suggests the consolidation may be ending GIL - failed b/o, still consolidating TWP - B5 or B1, depending on how you treat volatility IMPH - B1, needs to consolidate nice gain, A/A/A/A DFXI - descending B3, base on base? RARE - nice B2 after nice gain AAON - B3 WDR - B4 PAYX - a little sloppy and volatile, but LLUR BBOX - high end of a long (9 week) consolidation/trading range, volume not convincing AES - broke out Friday on 1.6X ADV from one week handle of a cup, still buyable FCN - trying to breakout, not succeeding yet CHRW - forming the handle to the cup FLM - may be starting a breakout from an 8 week base following a classic double bottom CTV - nice consolidation PAR - nice b/o from short base, at pivot point An unusually high percentage of the 80 stocks on this week's list were already under some form of merger or takeover scenario, and were not mentioned accordingly. Happy hunting Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] PWR Date: 29 Apr 2000 11:46:16 -0400 PWR looks like it could be worth watching for a 2nd entry point. Both earnings and sales growth are impressive. Obviously, the place to have bought it was in the base as the volume dried up. Now, it is over 10% extended. Rest of its CS elements also fine. Management has a healthy stake (34%) and the funds have already found it (14% of the remaining float). Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html ----- Original Message ----- Sent: Saturday, April 29, 2000 11:30 AM Quanta Services looks like it has popped again. What do you guys think? I think I am going to go with DSPG also. Go Market!! Charlie - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Earl Setser Subject: [CANSLIM] M (from today's IBD) Date: 29 Apr 2000 10:28:51 -0600 IBD continues to be very cautious after the last couple of days, maybe even more so. Here are some quotes from today's THE BIG PICTURE: "While the Nasdaq's point gains have been dramatic in three of the last four sessions, trading volume has not. The moves lack the intensity that would come with determined institutional support. This raises the odds we're seeing a short-term bounce rather than a new bull market." "That may be hard to believe as select tech stocks break out of bases and trade higher. ... But another key element in picking winners is a healthy market. It's still a little early to know whether the NASDAQ has truly turned a corner." They went on to discuss concerns: recent volume patterns (up on lower volume), bullish sentiment (too high), not enough buyers, too short a bear (recent ones have been 3 months min), and the Fed. Overall, quite a bearish article today, even with the NAS up on increased volume. Another note that I found interesting was in Friday's THE BIG PICTURE (which I got 1 day late this morning): "Before bargain hunters congratulate themselves and the revived tech sector, they should look at recent trading levels. Nasday volume dropped for the second day in a row. Rallies in not only lighter but below average volume leave a lot to be desired. If the Nasdaq is indeed out of the woods, institutional investors aren't buying with conviction." "Tuesday's follow-through volume, while heavier than the day before, also was below average on the Nasdaq and just equaled the NYSE's average. Successful follow-throughs out of bear markets since 1974 have always occurred in above-average trade." This is the first mention of "above-average" trade as something to watch for that I remember. Both Friday and Saturday's papers call out the below average on the front page summary for volume. This isn't what I expected after yesterday's action, particularly given the higher volume. I've picked up MTSN and BBRC over the last 2 days and I'm now at 33% invested. I think I'll try to keep my enthusiasm down until Monday unfolds, and watch closely before making any other decisions. (I was very close to grabbing DSPG yesterday, but the volume ended about 40% over 50 ADV while I was waiting for at least 50%.) - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tim Fisher" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Re: follow thru day? [Mr. Pyan] Date: 29 Apr 2000 09:45:51 -0700 I too am up +17% (since 4/17) but what is the point? It is definitely NOT CANSLIM and I have taken unduly large risks for just about any sane investor (save day-traders) to get there. I see many stocks that "broke their downtrend" with a dead cat bounce. I'd call them great shorts candidates, not longs. If you can tell a right side of a steep C&H from a DCB with better than 50% accuracy, then you need to write a book about it and retire. At 01:08 PM 4/29/00 +0200, you wrote: >If you are quick, nimble and can watch intraday. Then, in this EXTRAORDINARY >situation you can buy stocks that are starting to go up the right hand >side of there pattern, when they break important down trendlines. > >Does it work? That how I've made 17.2% net since Tuesday's follow thru day. > >Do I recommend it to everyone? NO W-A-Y. {Read this over and over again >pls until it hits home. Thank you.} > > >>For now? All I really see is a highly emotional market > >No wonder. > >>and a lot of damage thats been >>done that isnt going to work itself off in a week or two. > >Agreed. > >>We need to establish all >>new basing structures before we can get to throw darts times again, at >>least intech >>land. > >Good risk/reward management. > > >>I'd look at the OTC this way >>resistance 3880 >>support 3227 or an undercut. >>when you look at those two numbers and a chart of the OTC all you really >>have to know >>is that we'll be locked in a trading range for awhile most likely around >>those two >>numbers >>As for bright spots? POG,SII these are nice trendline trades that trade >>off of >>theyre 50day MAverages. >>Just food for thought. >> >>Hi TIM F! been awhile hey! >>Johan you still out there? >>Dan M Where have you been hiding ! >>Harlan >> >>Just a thought. >> >> >>- > >Regards, > ><<< Werner Vandewiele >>> Tim Fisher, 1995 President, Pacific Fishery Biologists Ore-ROCK-On Rockhounding Web Site PFB Information mailto:tim@OreRockOn.com WWW http://OreRockOn.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Werner Vandewiele Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Re: follow thru day? [Mr. Pyan] Date: 29 Apr 2000 19:35:48 +0200 At 09:45 AM 29-04-00 -0700, you wrote: >I too am up +17% (since 4/17) but what is the point? It is definitely NOT >CANSLIM and I have taken unduly large risks for just about any sane >investor (save day-traders) to get there. So what motivated you to take the risk then? And what rule set is your technique based upon? >I see many stocks that "broke their downtrend" with a dead cat bounce. No kidding!? Many of these ex-glamour stocks aren't comming back. Not any time soon. Guaranteed. But some will and are already showing the way. > I'd call them great shorts candidates, not longs. If they are great shorts, as you say, I hope you are shorting them. Or are you more inclined to take 'unduly large risks'? >If you can tell a right side of a steep C&H from a DCB with better than >50% accuracy, Since you are already made up your mind that it can't be done, without even asking what rule set this technique is based upon, I'm going to leave it at that. >then you need to write a book about it and retire. Haha, Tim. Retiring by writing a book about technical analysis (albeit combined with CANSLIM style fundamentals picking), is very unlikely. The chance of retiring by writing a book about investments and retiring from the royalties is much less than 50%. Over and out, son. >At 01:08 PM 4/29/00 +0200, you wrote: >>If you are quick, nimble and can watch intraday. Then, in this EXTRAORDINARY >>situation you can buy stocks that are starting to go up the right hand >>side of there pattern, when they break important down trendlines. >> >>Does it work? That how I've made 17.2% net since Tuesday's follow thru day. >> >>Do I recommend it to everyone? NO W-A-Y. {Read this over and over again >>pls until it hits home. Thank you.} >> >> >>>For now? All I really see is a highly emotional market >> >>No wonder. >> >>>and a lot of damage thats been >>>done that isnt going to work itself off in a week or two. >> >>Agreed. >> >>>We need to establish all >>>new basing structures before we can get to throw darts times again, at >>>least intech >>>land. >> >>Good risk/reward management. >> >> >>>I'd look at the OTC this way >>>resistance 3880 >>>support 3227 or an undercut. >>>when you look at those two numbers and a chart of the OTC all you really >>>have to know >>>is that we'll be locked in a trading range for awhile most likely around >>>those two >>>numbers >>>As for bright spots? POG,SII these are nice trendline trades that >>>trade off of >>>theyre 50day MAverages. >>>Just food for thought. >>> >>>Hi TIM F! been awhile hey! >>>Johan you still out there? >>>Dan M Where have you been hiding ! >>>Harlan >>> >>>Just a thought. >>> >>> >>>- >> >>Regards, >> >><<< Werner Vandewiele >>> > >Tim Fisher, 1995 President, Pacific Fishery Biologists >Ore-ROCK-On Rockhounding Web Site >PFB Information >mailto:tim@OreRockOn.com >WWW http://OreRockOn.com > > >- Regards, <<< Werner Vandewiele >>> - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "walter nusbaum" Subject: [CANSLIM] The 8% Stop Date: 29 Apr 2000 12:50:56 -0500 Hi guys, I was wondering where the almost-universal use of the 8% stop originated. What is the theory/basis for this number? Is it possible that heavy hitters are aware of its use, and are capable of driving the market past this number? The reason that I'm asking is that "buying the (10%) dip" is popular among certain market timers, and it seems to occur often enough that they have incorporated it into their systems. Could there be a correlation between the sellers at about -8%, and the (usual) buyers at about -10%? While very strong stocks may withstand a general market decline, otherwise "good" stocks may not fare so well. Can the 8% stop be justified in light of the usual turn around just past 10%? Best wishes, Walt - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Earl Setser Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] The 8% Stop Date: 29 Apr 2000 12:07:37 -0600 At 12:50 PM 4/29/00 -0500, you wrote: >Hi guys, >I was wondering where the almost-universal use of the 8% stop originated. >What is the theory/basis for this number? Is it possible that heavy hitters >are aware of its use, and are capable of driving the market past this >number? WON says that rule number 1 is to limit your losses. He suggests 7-8% as the maximum loss. >The reason that I'm asking is that "buying the (10%) dip" is popular among >certain market timers, and it seems to occur often enough that they have >incorporated it into their systems. Well, remember, the 7-8% is only based on your initial purchase. It does not apply to a trailing stop based on the stocks intraday or closing high. I believe 8% would be too tight for use in such approaches. >Could there be a correlation between the sellers at about -8%, and the >(usual) buyers at about -10%? >While very strong stocks may withstand a general market decline, otherwise >"good" stocks may not fare so well. Can the 8% stop be justified in light of >the usual turn around just past 10%? I'm not sure there is any magic number, 8%, 10%, 15%?? I've seen daily volatility WAY over any of these during the last month. Personally, I try to use the closing price as my trigger point, and I don't set hard stops or react to intraday prices (for the most part). I do try to give my stocks a chance to recover from a late day dip if they are still close to the -08% point. This approach has kept me in some good stocks, and has increased my losses on some bad one. I'm not sure it's worked that well overall, but I haven't found anything I prefer as yet. >Best wishes, >Walt > > > > >- > > > - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "walter nusbaum" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] The 8% Stop Date: 29 Apr 2000 13:56:37 -0500 ----- Original Message ----- Sent: Saturday, April 29, 2000 1:07 PM > At 12:50 PM 4/29/00 -0500, you wrote: > >Hi guys, > >I was wondering where the almost-universal use of the 8% stop originated. > >What is the theory/basis for this number? (SNIP) > WON says that rule number 1 is to limit your losses. He suggests 7-8% as > the maximum loss. Hi Earl, Thanks for your reply. I understand WON's recommendation, but I was wondering about its derivation. Nearly everyone uses it including mutual fund folks, but I've never heard of the originator or how this *particular* number was arrived at. Thanks again. Best wishes, Walt (Snip) > >The reason that I'm asking is that "buying the (10%) dip" is popular among > >certain market timers, and it seems to occur often enough that they have > >incorporated it into their systems. > > Well, remember, the 7-8% is only based on your initial purchase. It does > not apply to a trailing stop based on the stocks intraday or closing high. > I believe 8% would be too tight for use in such approaches. > >Could there be a correlation between the sellers at about -8%, and the > >(usual) buyers at about -10%? > >While very strong stocks may withstand a general market decline, otherwise > >"good" stocks may not fare so well. Can the 8% stop be justified in light of > >the usual turn around just past 10%? > > I'm not sure there is any magic number, 8%, 10%, 15%?? I've seen daily > volatility WAY over any of these during the last month. Personally, I try > to use the closing price as my trigger point, and I don't set hard stops or > react to intraday prices (for the most part). I do try to give my stocks a > chance to recover from a late day dip if they are still close to the -08% > point. This approach has kept me in some good stocks, and has increased my > losses on some bad one. I'm not sure it's worked that well overall, but I > haven't found anything I prefer as yet. - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] M (from today's IBD) Date: 29 Apr 2000 17:04:00 -0400 Both these articles appear predicated on the assumption we were in a bear market, as opposed to a correction in a bull market. Outside the %age drop, I saw little evidence of a bear market. Considering how compressed everything is now, I ignored the %age and looked at other indicators, and believe we never left a bull mkt. Looked at that way, the "shortness" of the "bear market" makes more sense as a correction, severe tho it has been. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html ----- Original Message ----- Cc: Sent: Saturday, April 29, 2000 12:28 PM IBD continues to be very cautious after the last couple of days, maybe even more so. Here are some quotes from today's THE BIG PICTURE: "While the Nasdaq's point gains have been dramatic in three of the last four sessions, trading volume has not. The moves lack the intensity that would come with determined institutional support. This raises the odds we're seeing a short-term bounce rather than a new bull market." "That may be hard to believe as select tech stocks break out of bases and trade higher. ... But another key element in picking winners is a healthy market. It's still a little early to know whether the NASDAQ has truly turned a corner." They went on to discuss concerns: recent volume patterns (up on lower volume), bullish sentiment (too high), not enough buyers, too short a bear (recent ones have been 3 months min), and the Fed. Overall, quite a bearish article today, even with the NAS up on increased volume. Another note that I found interesting was in Friday's THE BIG PICTURE (which I got 1 day late this morning): "Before bargain hunters congratulate themselves and the revived tech sector, they should look at recent trading levels. Nasday volume dropped for the second day in a row. Rallies in not only lighter but below average volume leave a lot to be desired. If the Nasdaq is indeed out of the woods, institutional investors aren't buying with conviction." "Tuesday's follow-through volume, while heavier than the day before, also was below average on the Nasdaq and just equaled the NYSE's average. Successful follow-throughs out of bear markets since 1974 have always occurred in above-average trade." This is the first mention of "above-average" trade as something to watch for that I remember. Both Friday and Saturday's papers call out the below average on the front page summary for volume. This isn't what I expected after yesterday's action, particularly given the higher volume. I've picked up MTSN and BBRC over the last 2 days and I'm now at 33% invested. I think I'll try to keep my enthusiasm down until Monday unfolds, and watch closely before making any other decisions. (I was very close to grabbing DSPG yesterday, but the volume ended about 40% over 50 ADV while I was waiting for at least 50%.) - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Werner Vandewiele Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] M (from today's IBD) Date: 29 Apr 2000 23:33:48 +0200 At 05:04 PM 29-04-00 -0400, you wrote: >Both these articles appear predicated on the assumption we were >in a bear market, as opposed to a correction in a bull market. >Outside the %age drop, I saw little evidence of a bear market. >Considering how compressed everything is now, I ignored the %age >and looked at other indicators, and believe we never left a bull >mkt. Looked at that way, the "shortness" of the "bear market" >makes more sense as a correction, severe tho it has been. Good point, Tom. But the eternal bullish sentiment as portraited in the sentiment figures is part of the 'problem' of getting this correction/bear or whatever we would like to call it, out of the way. A nice bottom usually goes hand in hand with bearish sentiment figures reaching the 35% level. We haven't seen that yet. We would like to see it. But it must not render us blind to other factors either. There are many things that happen when the market lifts of again. A follow thru day is nice. Leaders breaking out is also very positive. One would prefer this to happen when bearish sentiment is prevalent. But just when you think you can rely on a certain indicator or figure, the market changes it's ways and surprises many. Ask the Soros' guys... Regards, <<< Werner Vandewiele >>> - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Werner Vandewiele Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Re: follow thru day? [Mr. Pyan] Date: 29 Apr 2000 23:37:05 +0200 Tim, I reread my post. It came across harsher than I intended it to be. My apologies for that. Regards, <<< Werner Vandewiele >>> - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] The 8% Stop Date: 29 Apr 2000 18:07:56 -0400 Walter, In an article I read some years ago, WON started initially using 10%. Through several years of experience, he found that 10% was too much, and ended up using 8%. With the volatility today, I question whether 8% is even functional. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html ----- Original Message ----- Sent: Saturday, April 29, 2000 2:56 PM ----- Original Message ----- Sent: Saturday, April 29, 2000 1:07 PM > At 12:50 PM 4/29/00 -0500, you wrote: > >Hi guys, > >I was wondering where the almost-universal use of the 8% stop originated. > >What is the theory/basis for this number? (SNIP) > WON says that rule number 1 is to limit your losses. He suggests 7-8% as > the maximum loss. Hi Earl, Thanks for your reply. I understand WON's recommendation, but I was wondering about its derivation. Nearly everyone uses it including mutual fund folks, but I've never heard of the originator or how this *particular* number was arrived at. Thanks again. Best wishes, Walt (Snip) > >The reason that I'm asking is that "buying the (10%) dip" is popular among > >certain market timers, and it seems to occur often enough that they have > >incorporated it into their systems. > > Well, remember, the 7-8% is only based on your initial purchase. It does > not apply to a trailing stop based on the stocks intraday or closing high. > I believe 8% would be too tight for use in such approaches. > >Could there be a correlation between the sellers at about -8%, and the > >(usual) buyers at about -10%? > >While very strong stocks may withstand a general market decline, otherwise > >"good" stocks may not fare so well. Can the 8% stop be justified in light of > >the usual turn around just past 10%? > > I'm not sure there is any magic number, 8%, 10%, 15%?? I've seen daily > volatility WAY over any of these during the last month. Personally, I try > to use the closing price as my trigger point, and I don't set hard stops or > react to intraday prices (for the most part). I do try to give my stocks a > chance to recover from a late day dip if they are still close to the -08% > point. This approach has kept me in some good stocks, and has increased my > losses on some bad one. I'm not sure it's worked that well overall, but I > haven't found anything I prefer as yet. - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tim Fisher" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Re: follow thru day? [Mr. Pyan] Date: 29 Apr 2000 15:51:46 -0700 At 07:35 PM 4/29/00 +0200, you wrote: >At 09:45 AM 29-04-00 -0700, you wrote: >>I too am up +17% (since 4/17) but what is the point? It is definitely NOT >>CANSLIM and I have taken unduly large risks for just about any sane >>investor (save day-traders) to get there. > >So what motivated you to take the risk then? And what rule set is your >technique based upon? I rotated into Old Tech on a whim. No rules. I didn't want to churn my account once again, and I haven't. >>I see many stocks that "broke their downtrend" with a dead cat bounce. > >No kidding!? Many of these ex-glamour stocks aren't comming back. Not any >time soon. Guaranteed. But some will and are already showing the way. > >> I'd call them great shorts candidates, not longs. > >If they are great shorts, as you say, I hope you are shorting them. Or are >you more inclined to take 'unduly large risks'? I cannot short in my accounts, or I would have. Especially EMLX. >>If you can tell a right side of a steep C&H from a DCB with better than >>50% accuracy, > >Since you are already made up your mind that it can't be done, without >even asking what rule set this technique is based upon, I'm going to leave >it at that. Did I? What I wrote doesn't in any way say that I don't believe it can be done. I have a hard time believing it can be done with statistical accuracy better than 50/50. >>then you need to write a book about it and retire. > >Haha, Tim. Retiring by writing a book about technical analysis (albeit >combined with CANSLIM style fundamentals picking), is very unlikely. The >chance of retiring by writing a book about investments and retiring from >the royalties is much less than 50%. > >Over and out, son. Did I call you dad? Guess I missed that. Tim Fisher, 1995 President, Pacific Fishery Biologists Ore-ROCK-On Rockhounding Web Site PFB Information mailto:tim@OreRockOn.com WWW http://OreRockOn.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Bill Triffet" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] M (from today's IBD) Date: 29 Apr 2000 18:14:16 -0700 Earl, I have to agree with IBD on the volume issue. With bullish sentiment so high it seem to me the real movers are fully invested ( to the degree they wish to be). That means we need fresh faces to come in a buy our stocks for a price higher than we paid. I just don't see it. It just feels like folks are just ping-ponging between the NAZ and the NYE. It's hard to make a lasting rally with this behavior. I'm still 100% in cash having got out during the first market wobbles in March. I almost jumped on ALTR but missed the b/o. Maybe it'll work it's way back? -Bill ----- Original Message ----- Cc: Sent: Saturday, April 29, 2000 9:28 AM ...snip > "Before bargain hunters congratulate themselves and the revived tech > sector, they should look at recent trading levels. Nasday volume dropped > for the second day in a row. Rallies in not only lighter but below average > volume leave a lot to be desired. If the Nasdaq is indeed out of the > woods, institutional investors aren't buying with conviction." - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Bill Triffet" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] The 8% Stop Date: 29 Apr 2000 18:33:05 -0700 Walt, Not sure either but, I've started reading Elders' "Trading For a Living" (non-canslim though helpful). It's mentioned that one should limit their risk to no more that 2% of their trading portfolio per any single trade. I usually hold 4-5 issues at the most. Doing a little math I figured that a 8% loss from one trade on a portfolio equally divided into 4 issues results in a 2% portfolio loss. Interesting. -Bill ----- Original Message ----- Sent: Saturday, April 29, 2000 10:50 AM > Hi guys, > I was wondering where the almost-universal use of the 8% stop originated. > What is the theory/basis for this number? Is it possible that heavy hitters > are aware of its use, and are capable of driving the market past this > number? > > The reason that I'm asking is that "buying the (10%) dip" is popular among > certain market timers, and it seems to occur often enough that they have > incorporated it into their systems. > > Could there be a correlation between the sellers at about -8%, and the > (usual) buyers at about -10%? > While very strong stocks may withstand a general market decline, otherwise > "good" stocks may not fare so well. Can the 8% stop be justified in light of > the usual turn around just past 10%? > Best wishes, > Walt > > > > > - > > - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Earl Setser Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] The 8% Stop Date: 29 Apr 2000 22:06:30 -0600 Ah, history you seek (as Yoda would say). Here is the story from HTMMIS: Limit Your Losses to 7% or 8% of Your Cost (paragraph I took this from) ... "When the late Gerald M. Loeb of E.F. Hutton was writing his last book on the stock market, I had the pleasure of dicussig this issuei with him im my office. In his first work, "The Battle for Investment Survival", Loeb advocated cutting all losses at 10%. I was curious and asked him if he followed the 10% loss policy himself. He said "I would hope to be out long before they ever reach 10%." ... "To preserve your hard-earned money, I think 7% or 8% should be the limit. Your overall average of all losses should be less, prehaps 5% or 6%, if you are strict anf fast on your feet." So this is where the rule came from for us CANSLIM investors. At 01:56 PM 4/29/00 -0500, you wrote: > >----- Original Message ----- >From: "Earl Setser" >To: >Sent: Saturday, April 29, 2000 1:07 PM >Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] The 8% Stop > > >> At 12:50 PM 4/29/00 -0500, you wrote: >> >Hi guys, >> >I was wondering where the almost-universal use of the 8% stop originated. >> >What is the theory/basis for this number? >(SNIP) > >> WON says that rule number 1 is to limit your losses. He suggests 7-8% as >> the maximum loss. > >Hi Earl, >Thanks for your reply. I understand WON's recommendation, but I was >wondering about its derivation. Nearly everyone uses it including mutual >fund folks, but I've never heard of the originator or how this *particular* >number was arrived at. Thanks again. >Best wishes, >Walt > >(Snip) > >> >The reason that I'm asking is that "buying the (10%) dip" is popular >among >> >certain market timers, and it seems to occur often enough that they have >> >incorporated it into their systems. >> >> Well, remember, the 7-8% is only based on your initial purchase. It does >> not apply to a trailing stop based on the stocks intraday or closing high. >> I believe 8% would be too tight for use in such approaches. > >> >Could there be a correlation between the sellers at about -8%, and the >> >(usual) buyers at about -10%? >> >While very strong stocks may withstand a general market decline, >otherwise >> >"good" stocks may not fare so well. Can the 8% stop be justified in light >of >> >the usual turn around just past 10%? >> >> I'm not sure there is any magic number, 8%, 10%, 15%?? I've seen daily >> volatility WAY over any of these during the last month. Personally, I try >> to use the closing price as my trigger point, and I don't set hard stops >or >> react to intraday prices (for the most part). I do try to give my stocks >a >> chance to recover from a late day dip if they are still close to the -08% >> point. This approach has kept me in some good stocks, and has increased >my >> losses on some bad one. I'm not sure it's worked that well overall, but I >> haven't found anything I prefer as yet. > > > > > > >- > > > - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Earl Setser Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] M (from today's IBD) Date: 29 Apr 2000 22:07:45 -0600 Yes, it seems that IBD considers we are in a Bear market. At 05:04 PM 4/29/00 -0400, you wrote: >Both these articles appear predicated on the assumption we were >in a bear market, as opposed to a correction in a bull market. >Outside the %age drop, I saw little evidence of a bear market. >Considering how compressed everything is now, I ignored the %age >and looked at other indicators, and believe we never left a bull >mkt. Looked at that way, the "shortness" of the "bear market" >makes more sense as a correction, severe tho it has been. > >Tom Worley >stkguru@netside.net >chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 >get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html > > >----- Original Message ----- >From: Earl Setser >To: >Cc: >Sent: Saturday, April 29, 2000 12:28 PM >Subject: [CANSLIM] M (from today's IBD) > > >IBD continues to be very cautious after the last couple of days, >maybe even >more so. Here are some quotes from today's THE BIG PICTURE: > >"While the Nasdaq's point gains have been dramatic in three of >the last >four sessions, trading volume has not. The moves lack the >intensity that >would come with determined institutional support. This raises >the odds >we're seeing a short-term bounce rather than a new bull market." > >"That may be hard to believe as select tech stocks break out of >bases and >trade higher. ... But another key element in picking winners is >a healthy >market. It's still a little early to know whether the NASDAQ has >truly >turned a corner." > >They went on to discuss concerns: recent volume patterns (up on >lower >volume), bullish sentiment (too high), not enough buyers, too >short a bear >(recent ones have been 3 months min), and the Fed. Overall, >quite a >bearish article today, even with the NAS up on increased volume. > >Another note that I found interesting was in Friday's THE BIG >PICTURE >(which I got 1 day late this morning): > >"Before bargain hunters congratulate themselves and the revived >tech >sector, they should look at recent trading levels. Nasday volume >dropped >for the second day in a row. Rallies in not only lighter but >below average >volume leave a lot to be desired. If the Nasdaq is indeed out of >the >woods, institutional investors aren't buying with conviction." > >"Tuesday's follow-through volume, while heavier than the day >before, also >was below average on the Nasdaq and just equaled the NYSE's >average. >Successful follow-throughs out of bear markets since 1974 have >always >occurred in above-average trade." > >This is the first mention of "above-average" trade as something >to watch >for that I remember. Both Friday and Saturday's papers call out >the below >average on the front page summary for volume. > >This isn't what I expected after yesterday's action, particularly >given the >higher volume. I've picked up MTSN and BBRC over the last 2 days >and I'm >now at 33% invested. I think I'll try to keep my enthusiasm down >until >Monday unfolds, and watch closely before making any other >decisions. (I >was very close to grabbing DSPG yesterday, but the volume ended >about 40% >over 50 ADV while I was waiting for at least 50%.) > > >- > > > >- > > > - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "walter nusbaum" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] The 8% Stop Date: 30 Apr 2000 08:22:33 -0500 Tom, Earl, & Bill, Thanks for your time and information. Best wishes, Walt ----- Original Message ----- Sent: Saturday, April 29, 2000 5:07 PM > Walter, > In an article I read some years ago, WON started initially using > 10%. Through several years of experience, he found that 10% was > too much, and ended up using 8%. > > With the volatility today, I question whether 8% is even > functional. > > Tom Worley > stkguru@netside.net > chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 > get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Earl Setser Subject: [CANSLIM] Leaders List Date: 30 Apr 2000 08:08:18 -0600 Here is my latest "Leaders List". This list is assembled by taking stocks in the top 40 Industry Groups and generating a score for the stocks by combining IBD EPS, RPS, SPR rating, A/D rating, and Sponsorship rank. (Note that I have skipped the two or three Industry Groups in the Top 40 that are negative for the year.) I try to remove any stocks that are being purchased from the list. The list is the top 100 (or so) stocks by score (in order, highest scores first). I monitor this list for technical signals to buy. This list represents strong stocks that you may want to watch, but they have not been reviewed for technical signals yet, so PLEASE do your own DD before you buy. Personally, I've "tip-toed" back into the market a little the last few days. I am 33% invested at this point. Disclaimer: I own BBRC and MTSN (which just missed the list this week). QGENF TLGD TQNT PWAV QLGC SDLI DSPG ADCT PCCC TLCM AMCC CREE ALTR TECH PMCS PLMD FLEX LTRE TKLC BBRC TNL SMTC NT RMD IMPH NTAP PWER SNDK CDWC KING DY SCI PSEM XLTC CHP ELNT ERICY PLXT AMK KEI ANEN DRAM QCOM ADTN MCHP NEWP APH VOXX ADIC VTSS MCRL DFXI CMVT RFMD JBL WAT MXIM SILI NVLS DGX SUNW HH XLNX VSH ZOLL HC ASMI SFA AMKR NOK ELN SLR CTS ADI TER SAWS SBL ORBK AUDC AFCI ACTL VRI ESIO OCCF MIL ZOMX DIO GLW DITC SSTI MOLX DS PROX CGNX XETA AMAT MEAD STM EDMC CTV SANM - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: han.26@osu.edu Subject: [CANSLIM] Re: M uncertainty Date: 30 Apr 2000 10:39:08 -0700 >>>Don't you think you should just continue to follow the CANSLIM method. Won't the mkt speak before the Fed finishes with rates? Dan<<< Dan, If I were convinced that the recent upswings were INDEED follow throughs I would be more likely to jump in with both feet. (I have held on to [CSCO] Cisco Systems, BTW). But as later postings show, IBD is not yet convinced because of the weak volume [despite nice gains]. To me it smacks of a potential sucker's rally. Certainly I could be wrong, but I'd prefer to see the NAZ, DOW and S&P all following through on heavier than average volume and IBD endorsement of a full fledged bull before I invest fully. -Jim-- _______________________________________________________________ >>>At our near market bottoms, after severe corrections, people are supposed to be sc[k]eptical. So in that way I hope many (preferrably not on this list of course) to be 'still unconvinced'. FWIW. Regards, Werner Vandewiele<<< Werner, According to HTMMIS sentiment should be a distant 3rd when calling [tops and] bottoms. Primary is overall market behavior as determined by volume and price action clues on all the major indices. I've yet to see convincing strength on any index ESPECIALLY considering the weak volume (with the possible exception of Friday on the Naz, but the other indices did not confirm this; they went down and the DOW is actually into a downtrend on its 200 day moving average). Also, follow throughs after the 10th day are failure prone. If you count Good Friday, then this Friday [28th] was on the 10th day of the "rally" (otherwise it was the 9th). I think WON prefers resounding (full volume) follow throughs on the 4th-7th day for maximal bullishness, regardless. Second to the overall Market is the behavior of leading stocks. I haven't done enough study yet on previous leaders to know how convincingly leading stocks have followed though [or not], however. (I see on one of your later responses that you recognize these factors as more important than sentiment). -Jim-- - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: chris dempsey Subject: [CANSLIM]Industry Group Rank by 1/2 Months Date: 30 Apr 2000 10:59:13 -0400 (EDT) I keep track of the industry group strength on the 1st and 16th of each month. Ex. 4i/00 =3D 4/16/00 & 4/00 =3D 4/1/00. I have removed groups that = are dropping or are low. Out of the first 31 groups I only removed two groups that appear to be falling. Many groups are moving higher and way over half of the groups I don't even have a candidate for on my potential buy list. The general industry group is how the stocks are grouped and listed in IBD when they hit a new 52 week high in the new high/low section. Tom, You recently posted... Group Relative Strength is a proprietary formula based on the 6 month price performance of the highest relative strength stocks and the industry group. The highest relative strength stocks account for 75% of the rating. The group performance accounts for 25% of the rating. So it is not a simple average. =85To the comment I made to Earl that it appeared from his recent posts tha= t he expected the industry group rankings to be in order on 6/30 or 7/1, and = I mentioned that they wont be anything close. The proprietary formula based on the 6 month price performance is applying more emphasis to the current time frame. Overweighing some stocks in an index or industry group for the group relative strength and applying a six months time frame would keep the industry groups in rank order for an exact 6 month period of time. Elec-Semiconductor Mfg,1,1,5,11,10,8,13,11,12,14,11,7,Electronics Elec-Semiconductor Equip,2,4,10,12,12,9,19,17,19,23,17,12,Electronics Computer-Memory Devices,3,3,3,7,14,17,15,15,13,8,12,11,Computers Elec-Scientific Instrumn,4,9,19,18,16,20,9,9,14,18,16,19,Electronics Elec-Parts Distributors,5,17,27,38,37,42,41,40,40,42,45,42,Business Svc Computer-Graphics,6,10,16,23,27,27,29,30,35,38,41,51,Computers Elec Products-Misc,7,14,12,16,20,25,24,23,20,21,23,18,Electronics Electrical-Connectors,8,16,29,33,36,40,43,34,33,29,21,29,Electronics Oil & Gas-Drilling,9,21,35,60,52,62,62,45,49,75,60,48,Energy Elec-Misc Componets,10,11,13,17,15,14,16,16,16,11,9,10,Electronics Bldg-Heavy Const,11,38,59,57,65,73,97,95,107,116,110,122,Building Medical-Generic Drugs,12,18,39,48,47,50,53,74,110,146,133,144,Medical Oil&Gas-Machinery/Equip,13,20,36,62,66,68,79,85,92,130,124,93,Energy Computer-Optical Recogtn,14,7,11,14,13,16,18,20,18,19,19,16,Computers Elec Measrng Instruments,15,25,23,25,23,26,30,32,39,46,53,55,Electronics Medical-Hospitals,18,29,47,58,63,53,48,41,99,114,136,175,Medical Medical-Products,19,15,26,24,18,24,23,26,34,33,36,37,Medical Finance-Investment Mgmt,20,40,53,63,64,67,70,68,77,73,63,98,Finance Oil&Gas-Field Services,21,34,56,70,75,102,122,104,106,150,100,100,Energy Leisure-Products,22,36,51,69,79,80,83,114,101,94,112,101,Leisure Retail-Consumer Elect,23,70,58,93,119,153,95,75,46,47,32,27,Retail Houshold-Audio/Video,24,31,42,32,31,37,37,36,37,40,33,35,Consumer Machinery-Mtl Hdlg/Autmn,25,39,52,64,60,44,64,70,94,135,145,136,Business Pr= d Comml Svcs-Schools,26,37,50,66,69,60,77,117,75,82,122,153,Consumer Medical/Dental/Serv,27,35,38,39,39,49,52,63,69,70,89,73,Medical Oil&Gas-U S Explo&Prod,28,53,78,90,96,112,134,124,113,109,93,65,Energy Transportation-Ship,29,47,69,78,102,115,96,137,135,138,130,137,Transport Retail/Whlsle-Cmptr/Cell,30,68,34,31,33,38,32,43,32,25,20,24,Retail Elec-Military Systems,31,41,37,40,35,36,38,33,41,39,42,46,Electronics Electrical-Equipment,33,44,41,46,42,41,42,47,53,57,64,53,Machinery Oil&Gas-Intl Specialty,36,45,65,72,90,78,63,51,55,72,47,45,Energy Comml Serv-Staffing,37,51,64,51,55,54,47,46,42,43,70,70,Business Svc Retail-Discount&Variety,41,64,91,110,140,137,142,134,149,104,85,89,Retail Food-Dairy Products,43,72,70,86,81,76,119,126,136,144,114,106,Food/Bev Shoes & Rel Apparel,46,79,113,130,137,148,146,158,115,110,142,103,Apparel Diversified Operations,48,56,73,54,57,56,67,65,74,87,92,111,Misc Machinery-Gen Industrial,49,62,84,76,82,77,82,86,89,81,99,140,Machinery Bldg-Constr Prods/Misc,50,55,89,98,100,100,106,119,108,95,94,115,Building Medical-Whsle Drg/Sund,51,89,77,73,70,108,133,118,133,177,186,188,Medical Retail-Restaurants,56,81,104,120,111,124,144,169,154,164,147,133,Food/Bev Retail-Apparel/Shoe,59,61,72,115,125,122,93,90,80,69,78,69,Retail Transportation-Airline,60,48,85,109,147,150,145,109,100,89,119,90,Transport Medical-Hlth Maint Org,62,52,99,151,151,144,169,155,173,186,193,194,Medical Chemicals-Specialty,63,67,90,97,95,111,110,113,119,118,135,139,Chemicals Retail/Whlsle-Bldg Prods,64,59,96,117,88,86,90,98,68,76,98,74,Building Textile-Apparel Mfg,70,66,74,102,108,99,120,96,114,107,105,83,Apparel Bldg-Resident/Commrcl,73,90,107,138,138,154,172,164,141,155,163,180,Buildin= g Oil&Gas-Prod/Pipeline,75,75,92,96,101,110,126,132,155,181,151,112,Energy Transportation-Truck,76,69,101,107,107,97,116,102,117,128,125,120,Transport Office-Equip & Automatn,77,87,82,81,74,103,152,170,127,151,158,148,Office Oil&Gas-Cdn Exp&Prod,78,92,116,122,148,126,137,130,126,134,108,71,Energy Aerospace/Defense Eqp,79,82,80,83,78,85,107,110,118,122,90,105,Aircraft Auto/Truck-Original Eqp,80,84,106,99,115,140,132,167,175,169,170,165,Auto&Parts Oil&Gas-Refining/Mktg,86,105,119,127,109,114,117,127,104,102,103,95,Energy Retail/Wholesale-Food,88,99,131,155,158,171,159,159,168,158,156,146,Food/Be= v Pollution Control-Equip,89,93,87,89,97,93,129,136,124,141,116,81,Business Prd Medical-Nursing Homes,93,129,194,170,191,192,196,197,197,197,197,196,Medica= l Bldg-Cement/Concrt/Ag,97,124,135,134,146,138,148,131,139,149,144,159,Buildi= ng Finance-Equity Reit,99,114,133,118,114,125,135,141,153,168,164,156,Finance ______________________________________________ FREE Personalized Email at Mail.com Sign up at http://www.mail.com/?sr=3Dsignup - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: han.26@osu.edu Subject: [CANSLIM] WON on spotting a bottom Date: 30 Apr 2000 11:15:07 -0700 An excerpt from "26 Weeks To Successful Investing": Q: How do you tell when the market is turning up for real? O'NEIL: At some point on the way down, the indexes will attempt to rebound or rally. Bear markets normally come in two or three waves interrupted by several attempted 'false' rallies that usually fizzle out after one, two or three weeks and occasionally five to six weeks or more. Eventually, after almost every stock has broken down and sold off in price and enough bad news and time have passed, the market finds real support. One of these attempted rallies will finally ''follow through,'' showing real power, indicated by one or more of the indexes (Dow, S&P 500 or Nasdaq composite) closing up 1% or more, with a ****significant jump in volume from the day before. **** You can't tell much on the first or second day of a rally with all its exuberance. Short sellers, who sell borrowed shares in hopes the price will drop, also rush in to buy back their shares. The rally has yet to prove itself and still may be false. The market often settles back for a day or more. If it comes on again with ***clearly overwhelming power, *** you may have a valid follow-through trading session. This second confirmation of a new upturn in the market will usually occur the ***fourth through the seventh day*** of the attempted rally. Follow-throughs after the 10th day indicate the rally may be weak and prone to failure. I watch the Dow Jones industrials, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq composite indexes on IBD's General Market & Sectors page every day. An initial follow-through can occur on any one of the indexes and is ***usually followed a few days later on another index.*** I have never missed the beginning of a new bull market with this method of tracking the general market indexes carefully (Italics mine) -Jim-- P.S. Does anyone know of a free chart service that lists the INDICES together with their VOLUME [over time] so that one can look at volume percentage changes on an INDEX (like IBD has, but updated daily online)??? - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: han.26@osu.edu Subject: [CANSLIM] Pt. 2 Won on bottoms Date: 30 Apr 2000 11:25:15 -0700 Continued: "Q: What should investors look at first on the General Markets page? O'NEIL: I would rank day-to-day evaluation of the three key indexes plus IBD's Mutual Fund Index as the first to consider. The Mutual Fund Index tracks the performance of the best money managers in the market. It shows how leading funds are faring and can give clues to the general market's health. After these indicators, next in importance would be observing the individual stock market leaders' behavior and action for key signals. Are they acting normally or abnormally? This is really all you need, but it takes some study time and experience to get it down accurately. Of the remaining market variables of importance, I would list changes in the Federal Reserve Board's discount rate next in importance. The discount rate is what it costs member banks to borrow money from the Fed. A cut in the rate encourages borrowing and increases money supply, whereas a hike in the rate does the opposite. A lowering in the rate can generally signal a new bull market. But this indicator is not as reliable as really knowing how to interpret the market index changes. For example, two bull markets developed with no Fed cuts, and three times ('57, '60 and '81) the Fed lowered rates and the market continued to tank. Still, it's a positive signal that the Fed cut the discount rate by a quarter-percent on Thursday. Q: What about the so-called psychological indicators? Are any of these useful? O'NEIL: There are a couple of psychological indicators that gauge mass opinion about the market that are next in importance...." (I had forgotton that Fed discount rates were also ahead of psychological indicators in WON's heirarchy.) -Jim-- P.S. Has anyone been able to get into the old IBD online website that used to have condensed versions of the headlines, New America, Economy, Market, Leaders and Success, etc.? I seem unable to get through the old front door. - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM]Industry Group Rank by 1/2 Months Date: 30 Apr 2000 11:22:35 -0400 The point that I was trying to make is that the group RS is not time weighed, it is leadership weighed. A large group where most of the stocks in the group are steadily moving up may not have as good a GRS as one where a number of "leaders" are moving up much faster. Time is only relevant over the 6 month period. The weight is heavy on leadership, not time, on a 4:1 ratio of leadership to the group overall. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html ----- Original Message ----- Sent: Sunday, April 30, 2000 10:59 AM Tom, You recently posted... Industry Group Relative Strength is a proprietary formula based on the 6 month price performance of the highest relative strength stocks and the industry group. The highest relative strength stocks account for 75% of the rating. The group performance accounts for 25% of the rating. So it is not a simple average. .To the comment I made to Earl that it appeared from his recent posts that he expected the industry group rankings to be in order on 6/30 or 7/1, and I mentioned that they wont be anything close. The proprietary formula based on the 6 month price performance is applying more emphasis to the current time frame. Overweighing some stocks in an index or industry group for the group relative strength and applying a six months time frame would keep the industry groups in rank order for an exact 6 month period of time. - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Earl Setser Subject: [CANSLIM] Leaders List - Bases Date: 30 Apr 2000 09:33:33 -0600 I posted the Leaders List top 100 a little while ago. As I worked through the charts I was amazed at the number of bases being formed. For my purposes this week, I defined a base as a stock that has based a minimum of 4 weeks and is above its 50 day EMA. (I do this to delete stocks that have shown a definite uptrend in the base yet.) I also include stocks that have had a breakout within the last week or so, hoping for a second chance. Generally, I get 10-20 candidates after working through the charts. Today I reviewed the 101 stocks on my list and found 53 stocks with at least 4 week bases!! This is a very large number, much larger than I've ever seen before!! I also show a large number of stocks with 7+ week bases. I believe that we are really set up for this week. If the market (Nasdaq) can show some strength with good movement on GOOD volume, I think we will see a very large number of breakouts. On the other hand, the market may move higher on so-so volume or lower, and then I wouldn't expect to see so many break-outs (especially using 1.5 X 50 ADV as a B/O criteria). This should be a very interesting week!! - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Earl Setser Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] WON on spotting a bottom Date: 30 Apr 2000 09:36:28 -0600 CBS Marketwatch includes volume for indexes (at least the Nasdaq) in their historical quotes section. You can get there by going to the main page, selecting the index, then historical quotes, then input the date. For the Nasdaq, here is the link: http://www2.marketwatch.com/quotes/historical.asp?source=htx/http2_mw&symb=$ compq At 11:15 AM 4/30/00 -0700, you wrote: >An excerpt from "26 Weeks To Successful Investing": > >Q: How do you tell when the market is turning up for real? > >O'NEIL: At some point on the way down, the indexes will attempt to rebound or rally. >Bear markets normally come in two or > three waves interrupted by several attempted 'false' rallies that usually fizzle >out after one, two or three weeks and occasionally > five to six weeks or more. > > Eventually, after almost every stock has broken down and sold off in price and >enough bad news and time have passed, the > market finds real support. One of these attempted rallies will finally ''follow >through,'' showing real power, indicated by one or > more of the indexes (Dow, S&P 500 or Nasdaq composite) closing up 1% or more, with >a ****significant jump in volume from the day before. **** > > You can't tell much on the first or second day of a rally with all its exuberance. >Short sellers, who sell borrowed shares in hopes > the price will drop, also rush in to buy back their shares. The rally has yet to >prove itself and still may be false. The market often > settles back for a day or more. If it comes on again with ***clearly overwhelming >power, *** you may have a valid follow-through > trading session. This second confirmation of a new upturn in the market will >usually occur the ***fourth through the seventh day*** > of the attempted rally. Follow-throughs after the 10th day indicate the rally may >be weak and prone to failure. > > I watch the Dow Jones industrials, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq composite indexes on >IBD's General Market & Sectors page > every day. An initial follow-through can occur on any one of the indexes and is >***usually followed a few days later on another > index.*** I have never missed the beginning of a new bull market with this method >of tracking the general market indexes carefully > >(Italics mine) > >-Jim-- > > >P.S. Does anyone know of a free chart service that lists the INDICES together with >their VOLUME [over time] so that one can look at volume percentage changes on an >INDEX (like IBD has, but updated daily online)??? > > >- > > > - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "walter nusbaum" Subject: [CANSLIM] Fw: Stocks@Close for 04-28-2000 Date: 30 Apr 2000 11:26:46 -0500 Jim, This may be of some help. Be sure to scroll to the bottom for certain information on some individual stocks. Best wishes, Walt ----- Original Message ----- Sent: Friday, April 28, 2000 7:47 PM > Stocks@Close - Your Daily Source for Closing Market Information! > Closing Report for: Friday, Apr 28 2000 > > Dow Jones Averages: > Dow Jones Industrial Avg 10,733.91 Off -154.19 (-1.42%) > Dow Jones Transport Avg 2,850.01 Up +13.17 (+0.46%) > Dow Jones Utilities Avg 317.75 Off -7.26 (-2.23%) > > New York Composite Avg 644.16 Off -6.29 (-0.97%) > OEX S&P 100 781.42 Off -9.28 (-1.17%) > SPX S&P 500 1,452.43 Off -12.49 (-0.85%) > Advancing Issues 1,742 > Declining Issues 1,184 > Unchanged Issues 483 > Advancing Volume 405,190,400 > Declining Volume 518,557,200 > Unchanged Volume 57,578,450 > Total Volume 981,413,400 > > American Composite 922.45 Up +20.36 (+2.26%) > Advancing Issues 364 > Declining Issues 199 > Unchanged Issues 174 > Advancing Volume 34,606,000 > Declining Volume 10,930,800 > Unchanged Volume 1,964,410 > Total Volume 47,704,800 > > Nasdaq Composite Avg 3,860.66 Up +86.63 (+2.30%) > NDX.X Nasdaq 100 Avg 3,773.18 Up +80.61 (+2.18%) > Advancing Volume 1,105,402,000 > Declining Volume 444,187,000 > Unchanged Volume 30,298,270 > Total Volume 1,579,918,700 > > Russell 1000 Index 771.58 Off -3.79 (-0.49%) > Russell 2000 Index 506.25 Up +11.67 (+2.36%) > Russell 3000 Index 797.06 Off -2.40 (-0.30%) > 30 Year US Treasury Bonds 5.96 Off -0.03 (-0.52%)Apr 28, 2000 > Nikkei 300 318.82 Off -0.53 (-0.17%)Apr 28, 2000 > Mexico Index 108.61 Off -0.50 (-0.46%)Apr 28, 2000 > TSE 300 Composite Index 9,347.61 Up +24.95 (+0.27%)Apr 28, 2000 > > Tell your friends about Stocks@Close, the FREE daily stock market > information service. This FREE service is sponsored by: > > NSI Web Design > http://www.nsiweb.com/webinfo/ > High quality Web Design and Hosting Services for your Business. > A full service ISP - from database integration and custom > software development to streaming audio/video. Now offering > Nationwide Dial Up Internet access from $12/Month and High Speed > Nationwide DSL Access from just $48/month. Please visit our > website for more information -- http://www.nsiweb.com > > Statistics > ---------- > Ticker Close %Change Volume > Highest Volume > AMEX GW 4 1/16 +4.8 1.39M > NYSE AWE 32 +0.4 33.2M > Nasdaq MSFT 69 3/4 -0.2 38.9M > > Top % Gainers > AMEX > ISV 5 1/2 +37.5 336K > GNT 7 +27.3 176K > AIS 14 7/8 +25.3 252K > NYSE > CGZ 6 7/16 +45.1 779K > RLR 43 +39.3 2.16M > CRA 83 1/4 +25.2 2.71M > Nasdaq > STCS 17 7/8 +49.0 3.92M > VIAS 8 1/16 +47.4 6.52M > INTF 17 +42.4 421K > > Top % Losers > AMEX > HTI 2 1/8 -22.7 9.20K > HRT 1 15/16 -13.9 7.70K > TFF 1 3/4 -12.5 15.0K > NYSE > MAI 13 1/4 -32.5 393K > ARG 5 7/8 -27.1 2.04M > CNC 5 5/8 -19.6 22.6M > Nasdaq > MPPP 7 -39.8 8.11M > RADS 18 5/8 -36.9 3.36M > RVST 6 7/8 -32.9 2.89M > > Got questions or comments? Would you like to become a sponsor? > Send e-mail to stocksmanager@nsiweb.com > To Subscribe to Stocks@Close, please send email to Stocks@nsiweb.com > with the word "subscribe" as the subject of the message or vist our Web > site at http://www.nsiweb.com/stocks > > (c) 1998 NSI Web http://www.nsiweb.com > > > - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Patrick Wahl" Subject: [CANSLIM] Chairman Warren Date: 30 Apr 2000 19:26:11 -0600 Here are some excerpts from a Warren Buffet address - http://www.msnbc.com/news/401581.asp - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Patrick Wahl" Subject: [CANSLIM] Marder Date: 30 Apr 2000 19:52:06 -0600 Another freebie from Kevin Marder at cbs marketwatch - http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/current/charthead.htx?source=ht x/http2_mw - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Marder Date: 30 Apr 2000 22:35:49 -0400 this seems more like momentum trading than CANSLIM investing. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html ----- Original Message ----- Sent: Sunday, April 30, 2000 9:52 PM Another freebie from Kevin Marder at cbs marketwatch - http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/current/charthead.htx?source=ht x/http2_mw - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Earl Setser Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Marder Date: 30 Apr 2000 22:17:28 -0600 Hmm, I'm not sure I understand your comment. The stocks he mentions are ones I am watching (except KEM that I left off due to the 74 EPS is below my 75 limit). They have good CANSLIM numbers, and he watching for new highs after bases. I bought both BBRC and MTSN last week after breakouts that he mentioned. What am I missing?? At 10:35 PM 4/30/00 -0400, you wrote: >this seems more like momentum trading than CANSLIM investing. > >Tom Worley >stkguru@netside.net >chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 >get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html > > >----- Original Message ----- >From: Patrick Wahl >To: >Sent: Sunday, April 30, 2000 9:52 PM >Subject: [CANSLIM] Marder > > >Another freebie from Kevin Marder at cbs marketwatch - > >http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/current/charthead.htx?source=ht >x/http2_mw > >- > > > >- > > > - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: GOOWLS@aol.com Subject: [CANSLIM] Re: More W.O.N. comments on follow through day Date: 01 May 2000 01:11:16 EDT From notes I made at a free seminar in Houston, TX on August 23, 1997, presented by Wiiliam O'Neil: "Buy the leaders on the follow through day. You will be afraid, but you must buy stocks on the follow through day." Mike Goode -