From: "Tom Worley" Subject: [CANSLIM] Market Comments, March 31, 1997 Date: 01 Apr 1997 06:21:44 -0500 Well, these 2% down days, and occasionally up ones, are starting to get boring. Can't even set decent records for nr of points clipped, best we seem able to do is 6th or 8th. Why don't we just go for the first thousand pt day and get the pain over with quickly? Seriously, what's going on? Why such a continued correction? Or are we into a bear market already? The best single reason for such performance is that the investment community seems almost overnight to have realized, even as the Feds hiked the rates 25 bp, that another hike of at least 25 bp is likely at the next meeting. We seem to have swung violently from a stance of "there's no inflation, why is Greenspan warning of inflation" to "oh my god, the economic growth is soaring, inflation is coming, how much will Greenspan go up now?". We haven't entered into a real bear mkt until the fundamentals have changed, and that hasn't happened. We are still growing, cos are still increasing rev and earnings, actual inflation is still low while employment is still high, consumer spending is on the rise, but so is consumer earnings. Let's go back to basics and review some of the many factors that influence the stock market. Last night I posted some info from Commerce on Q4 corporate profits. I have previously mentioned seeing an increase in neg preannouncements, I have not attempted to quantify this, it is very subjective, however the market is punishing those who warn they will miss estimates. Yesterday's land mine was Applied Microsystems (APMC), which lost half it's value after warning of results under estimates including lower revenues. I recently mentioned Atwood Oceanics, yesterday Rodman and Renshaw (sounds like a radio talk show), a firm I have never even heard of, cut their rating on ATWD from a buy to neutral and cut earnings estimates, down goes the stock 5 pts or so. I hope nobody listened to me on that one, sure looked good at the time. FedEx put out a good preannouncement and still lost another pt and a half or so, maybe just mkt conditions, but no longer looks so hot on the chart. Technically, the only bright spot in the mkt last two trading days has been the volume. Neither session even suggested approaching record volume. And by comparison, NASDAQ is doing slightly better at holdings its ground than NYSE, and Russell 2000 surprisingly is doing even better despite the weakness in the financials group due to the latest rate hike and expectation of another one soon. The dollar remains in a trading range, as does gold, with the dollar near its current highs and gold at what is becoming a neutral level but one clearly not suggestive of renewed inflation. The bond market, so far, doesn't seem to be getting the influx of money fleeing the stock market that was to be expected when the yield crossed 7%, now up to 7.10%. Most of the action seems to be coming from short covering by those betting on the price to continue falling. When that didn't happen, they are closing out the short position. Virtually every technology group in my opinion is now in an oversold condition. Most financial groups are no longer overbought, altho they may fall further due the suspected upcoming rate hike. Health care groups took a beating, mostly on news. Columbia/HCA dropped nearly 4 and was the most actively traded due ratings cuts by two wire houses and concerns over a govt investigation into their business practices. In the pharmaceutical arena, Vivus lost over 8 after reporting that FDA inspection of their facility found deficiencies which will restrict production. Liposome was down nearly 3 after reporting results will be below expectation. The point in mentioning this is that sometimes stocks should go down, at least these had bad news which justified the move, thus remaining predictable to that degree. Yesterday was the end of the first qtr, but I did not detect any sig move of money by mutual funds back into the mkt over the past week (unless it was last Wednesday). I suspect most funds held the max cash they are allowed as of the close of the qtr, both to cover redeemptions as well as to jump back in if the mkt reverses its present course. For the qtr, the Dow 30 ended up back where it was on January 8, finishing up 2.1% for the qtr (135 pts). NASDAQ finished the qtr down 70 pts, over 5%. Ironically, NASDAQ is now down 12% from its high, Russell 2000 only 7.5%, with both setting their all time high on Jan 22. That was the day to sell, too bad we didn't have a crystal ball and know that was to be the last high for awhile. Which takes me to my final thought, this aging bull ain't raging no more, but it's not dead yet. I lost my source for daily reports on the Dow 30 PE compared to year prior, but last time I saw it the PE was less than a point better and that was about a month ago. I suspect with the correction to date, the current PE is running below a year ago. Of course, today we have a fear of slowing profits and even, in some cases such as the networking groups, slowing revenues on top of rising rates and inflationary pressures. Thus a comparison is only statistically useful, but still one more factor in asking whether this market is still overvalued. I have mentioned several times the excessive optimism in the marketplace. That has been corrected, and appropriately so, in the past several weeks. My best guess right now, based on nearly 40 years in the market, and nine years in the securities industry, is that the next several weeks will continue to be volatile, but that we are close to ending this bloodbath. We may still see another few 2% days, but I believe we are more likely to start seeing more upside movement with some money returning to pick up what are now a number of undervalued issues. On the other hand, lately I haven't been real accurate in reading this market direction, so take this with a grain of salt. tom w my opinions are strictly my own, and do not reflect my employer's, and are provided free to this august and select group upon request ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Introduction Date: 01 Apr 1997 06:29:05 -0500 Thanks for the info, Neil. BTW, I'm in Miami, FL tom w ---------- > From: saltydog > To: canslim@mail.xmission.com > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Introduction > Date: Monday, March 31, 1997 10:50 PM > > Hi Tom: > In response to your inquiry about my background. I have a business > administration degree with a major in accounting from Robert Morris > College in Pittsburgh, Pa. I have been employed as an out-of-state tax > auditor for the State of Florida for 16 years. I do Corporate Income > Tax, Sales and Use Tax, Intangible Tax, Documentary Stamp Tax, Motor > Fuel and Special Fuel Tax audits on companies in Ohio and Kentucky who ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: [CANSLIM] Some more mkt comments Date: 01 Apr 1997 06:54:44 -0500 Worth noting that most major indexes held the 50 dma, altho NASDAQ already below and continuing to fall. All indexes and oscillators I looked at showed oversold, and that didn't stop the fall (but then who listens to me, anyway, certainly not Garzarelli). Having looked at this, however, my opinion that the serious bloodletting is approaching an end is, at least, reinforced. tom w ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Any opinion on any of these? Date: 01 Apr 1997 07:09:41 -0500 GDYS - EPS 78, RS rising at 98, a/c A, Timeliness A, funds at 46% and banks 15%; however growth rate neg 6%, vol strong (avg at 77K and doing easily double that for last sev days). Only a vague base back at 20, and with 50dma at 18.625 and price above 23, too late for entry here. Rev growing consistently (don't understand that neg growth nr) but earnings not as consistent due a one time item in Q2 last yr. Did 62 cents latest qtr, and 14 cents for yr ago Q1 so should be easy comparison. SRR - EPS 59, RDS 96, a/d A, Timeliness A, PE very high (146) for this mkt, funds 27% and banks 14%, inventory t/o only 3.4X, vol running close to avg of 503K but u/d vol still 2.4. Again very extended from any base or 50dma ASTSF - EPS 72, RS 99, a/d A, Timeliness B, debt of 42% (I mention this since debt is getting more costly), earnings have been erratic on essentially flat rev. Basing with vol drying up sharply. ACRT - EPS 98, RS 99, a/d B, strong growth rate of 58%, this looks more to me like a dead cat bounce, recent rise from $8 to 12 was on vol below avg, and you have recent overhang from mid Feb 97 at 17.625. 6.3 mil shares issued means thin float, limited liquidity if goes either way. No funds indicated. hope this helps tom w ---------- > From: Brenda > To: canslim > Subject: [CANSLIM] Any opinion on any of these? > Date: Monday, March 31, 1997 10:19 PM > > Just wondered if anybody had any experience with any of these? GDYS, SRR, > ASTSF or does anybody know why the strength ACRT has shown these past > extremely weak days? Thanks. > James ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Charles A. Wilmot" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Return Receipt Test Date: 01 Apr 1997 05:40:18 -0700 Jeff, This is an acknowledgement of receipt of your test message, if that is what you want. Chuck Wilmot At 11:35 AM 3/31/97 -0600, you wrote: >Fellow Canslimers, > >If this little test works, I will explain this little test later today. I'm >hoping it will help each of you get a bit of assurance that your posting to the >canslim list actually gets to the list. > >Jeff > > Charles A. Wilmot cwilmot@azstarnet.com ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "David F. Cameron" Subject: [CANSLIM] Rate Hikes Date: 01 Apr 1997 7:38:19 CST I have a question on rate hikes - if any of you have any insights on this, please share with the group. This question is partly spurred by Tom's comment: > > Seriously, what's going on? Why such a continued correction? Or are we > into a bear market already? The best single reason for such performance > is that the investment community seems almost overnight to have > realized, even as the Feds hiked the rates 25 bp, that another hike of > at least 25 bp is likely at the next meeting. We seem to have swung > violently from a stance of "there's no inflation, why is Greenspan > warning of inflation" to "oh my god, the economic growth is soaring, > inflation is coming, how much will Greenspan go up now?". The Fed has a recent history of following up one small rate hike of say 1/4 point, by another, then another, etc. --- with maybe a 1/2-point hike built in. When lowering rates, the same pattern holds. I trust you all agree? The question is why? Why not just raise rates by a full point and get it over with - why prolong the speculation? Some could say that - oh its because Greenspan is waiting to see the effect of the first hike. That's not valid. The effect he's looking for won't be seen for several months down the road. Others could say, well... he doesn't know if he's going to continue. Well... as Tom pointed out - it'll take something VERY unexpected for Greenspan to NOT raise rates in a couple months. So he's ALREADY decided - so why not just do it at the last meeting. As investors, if you see something you don't like (say you think a stock is falling) - you don't start selling 20% of your position in 5 installments, right? So why would you raise or lower rates as the FOMC does in 5 installments? Any insights? Tom? Dave Cameron dcameron@harper.cc.il.us ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: rks@ticc.com (R.K. Stephenson) Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Rate Hikes Date: 01 Apr 1997 07:17:11 -0800 In article <9704011343.AA27209@harper.cc.il.us>, you wrote: >I have a question on rate hikes - if any of you have any insights >on this, please share with the group. >The Fed has a recent history of following up one small rate hike >of say 1/4 point, by another, then another, etc. --- with maybe >a 1/2-point hike built in. When lowering rates, the same pattern >holds. I trust you all agree? >The question is why? Why not just raise rates by a full point The short/simple answer is that the Fed wants to 'cool' the economy with incremental small hikes, as needed, vice 'shock' it with a large hike. A too large hike could send the economy in the opposite direction (down) rather than simply prevent it from heating up too quickly. -- RK ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: pwahl@postoffice.worldnet.att.net Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Rate Hikes Date: 01 Apr 1997 08:21:32 -0800 > From: "David F. Cameron" > The question is why? Why not just raise rates by a full point > and get it over with - why prolong the speculation? Some could > say that - oh its because Greenspan is waiting to see the effect > of the first hike. That's not valid. The effect he's looking > for won't be seen for several months down the road. Others I'll take a stab at this one, but don't take this as the gospel truth... First, I don't think it is that clear how strong or how weak the economy is and what inflationary pressures are at any given point in time. There are always a few conflicting signals. Right now the CPI and PPI aren't showing that much inflation, but the housing and job markets, among others, show a strong economy and the conditions that produce inflation. Too great a rate hike will push the economy into a recession, no rate hike and it is too late to do anything about inflation when it does appear. Greenspan wants to tweak the economy in a way that keeps the economy humming along with positive growth, but minimal inflation, and that ain't easy to do, but he's done a very good job so far. Second, the stock market is a consideration in his thinking, as he has made clear in the last few months, and as it should be. What do you think the market would do if he raised rates a full point? All you have to do is look at what happened in the last week to answer that question. (And I think Greenspan would be out of a job within a day or two of raising rates a full point.) Does this answer your question, make any sense? ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Brenda" Date: 01 Apr 1997 12:12:36 -0600 If somebody has the time please go to http://investor.msn.com/news/news.app (Microsoft Investor Company News). Pull up the news on GRTR. After reading it, pretend you own GRTR with an entry point of 17 5/8. What would you do at this time? Thanks a lot. James P.S. I just found this and took down news on a lot of the issues I currently own. Knew MOST of what it told me but I did learn a few SURPRISING facts on some of the stocks I own. Hope the site will be of benefit to you also. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Jim Knock Subject: [CANSLIM] Re: Date: 01 Apr 1997 20:56:51 -0600 James, Your URL reference probably should have been: http://investor.msn.com/news/news.asp Jim At 12:12 PM 4/1/97 -0600, Brenda wrote: >If somebody has the time please go to http://investor.msn.com/news/news.app >(Microsoft Investor Company News). Pull up the news on GRTR. After reading >it, pretend you own GRTR with an entry point of 17 5/8. What would you do >at this time? Thanks a lot. >James > >P.S. I just found this and took down news on a lot of the issues I >currently own. Knew MOST of what it told me but I did learn a few >SURPRISING facts on some of the stocks I own. Hope the site will be of >benefit to you also. > > > ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Brenda" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Re: Date: 01 Apr 1997 20:59:01 -0600 Thanks. I'm not too used to all this internet and I got close. Well, if you looked it up and read anything what would YOU do if you owned GRTR under the circumstances. I manage several accounts and have gotten in at all different prices, the last being 17 5/8ths. I'm really in a quandry. Used to follow ASFC but quit when it started falling. It is really falling now. Do I really want to OWN some of it. Of course, at these prices maybe it would be ok. Oh well, guess that's what helps keep things exciting. James ---------- > From: Jim Knock > To: canslim@mail.xmission.com; canslim > Subject: [CANSLIM] Re: > Date: Tuesday, April 01, 1997 8:56 PM > > James, > > Your URL reference probably should have been: > > http://investor.msn.com/news/news.asp > > Jim > > At 12:12 PM 4/1/97 -0600, Brenda wrote: > >If somebody has the time please go to http://investor.msn.com/news/news.app > >(Microsoft Investor Company News). Pull up the news on GRTR. After reading > >it, pretend you own GRTR with an entry point of 17 5/8. What would you do > >at this time? Thanks a lot. > >James > > > >P.S. I just found this and took down news on a lot of the issues I > >currently own. Knew MOST of what it told me but I did learn a few > >SURPRISING facts on some of the stocks I own. Hope the site will be of > >benefit to you also. > > > > > > > ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Jim Knock Date: 01 Apr 1997 21:07:44 -0600 James, DUH? At 12:12 PM 4/1/97 -0600, Brenda wrote: >If somebody has the time please go to http://investor.msn.com/news/news.app >(Microsoft Investor Company News). Pull up the news on GRTR. After reading >it, pretend you own GRTR with an entry point of 17 5/8. What would you do >at this time? Thanks a lot. >James > >P.S. I just found this and took down news on a lot of the issues I >currently own. Knew MOST of what it told me but I did learn a few >SURPRISING facts on some of the stocks I own. Hope the site will be of >benefit to you also. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Jim Knock Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Rate Hikes Date: 01 Apr 1997 21:21:04 -0600 At 07:38 AM 4/1/97 CST, you wrote: >... >The Fed has a recent history of following up one small rate hike >of say 1/4 point, by another, then another, etc. --- with maybe >a 1/2-point hike built in. When lowering rates, the same pattern >holds. I trust you all agree? > >The question is why? Why not just raise rates by a full point >and get it over with - why prolong the speculation? Some could >say that - oh its because Greenspan is waiting to see the effect >of the first hike. That's not valid. The effect he's looking >for won't be seen for several months down the road. Others >could say, well... he doesn't know if he's going to continue. >Well... as Tom pointed out - it'll take something VERY >unexpected for Greenspan to NOT raise rates in a couple months. >So he's ALREADY decided - so why not just do it at the last >meeting. I think it is important to understand that the FED is not a government agency. It is the primary creditor of the US government, and markets the US debt, mainly to banks. It represents the interests of banks much more than the interests of the US government. Frankly speaking, it plays politics, lowering the interest rate, usually before major elections, and raising it afterward. It represents the interests of banks, who usually would like to see higher interest rates. The Fed is mainly interested in seeing people borrowing money and driving up the interest rates. It is interested in a stable and high interest rate for a nation of debtors. The stock market is actually a competitor. The stock market has no direct representation on the Federal Reserve Board. >As investors, if you see something you don't like (say you think >a stock is falling) - you don't start selling 20% of your position >in 5 installments, right? So why would you raise or lower rates >as the FOMC does in 5 installments? > >Any insights? > >Tom? Jim ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: [CANSLIM] Market Comments (abbreviated) Date: 01 Apr 1997 22:22:51 -0500 Another 12.5 hr day, ten PM and just got home, so will snip my comments to some passing thoughts and post before I check my email, so at least I get some comments out before I crash. NAPM nrs this am again confirm more rapidly growing economy and increased inflationary pressures. Feds already being criticized for not acting soon enough. Funny, seems only a few weeks ago they were being criticized for acting at all to raise rates. Never recall a period when sentiment shifted so rapidly and violently. Neg preannouncements increasing, effects violent. Saw several more stocks cut in half today as result. Wrote down a partial list of ones killed today and others that announced real late, some past 7PM, that will likely be cut in two tomorrow, then went off and left list at office. From memory, FORE went from 15 to 10 and back to 13 during the day. FILE announced after the close, as did PSDI. IFMX lost about a third. Wish my memory was better. I now rate probability of a 25 bp hike at May meeting better than 65%, and see possibility of a 50bp hike. And no, this is not an April Fool's joke, today a very stressful day and failed to have time for a single joke. Been a while since that happened. Actually, come to think about it, it was only last year, but that was due to personal problems, not the market. The roller coaster action today was about the only encouraging thing I saw. There were clearly waves of sellers being met by waves of value shoppers. On NYSE, the value shoppers seemed to have won for the moment. On NASDAQ I'm not so sure, tech nrs were really ugly. 32 new highs to 297 new lows esp so. NY was more neutral with the Dow 30 at least closing up. Bond mkt so far doesn't appear to have started pricing in another rate hike yet, but sorely tempted to short the Treasuries. Late breaking news: In Japan, the Tankan (a business condition index) reported the first positive number since Nov 91. As result, govt intervention into the bank's non performing loan problem will likely remain loose (e.g. delayed) for at least several months. This started a run on the dollar (which had lost 2 yen in today's trading) sending it back close to current resistance at 123 yen. This was up a yen from NY's close. U.S. construction report also showed new strength, remember this affects both labor and material costs. It was up 2.3%, largest increase in a year. There was evidence of increasing labor costs, but no analysis just saw the headline. Will try to do my usual two hours or so of mkt review and post anything I find that is significant at least before I leave for work tomorrow, but my general feel is that the mkt is trying to consolidate here for awhile. After that, the earnings cycle will likely become the dominant factor for awhile, but as I have already said, the nr of neg preannouncements is troubling me. One example of this was a ratings cut by H&Q in which they also lowered their earnings forecast for the year from about 97 cents to around 19 cents (yeah, that's right, nearly an 80% cut, wish I had brought my notes home). tom w ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Rate Hikes Date: 01 Apr 1997 22:44:28 -0500 An interesting and well represented series of responses. I reviewed them all before writing this, and generally agree with most of the responses. I am also impressed and pleased to see so many understanding the Feds and their role here. I will disagree with several comments, however. First, to Jim Knock's response, I consider the Fed Reserve Banks to be a part of govt, as Chairman, so is Greenspan, he is nominated by the Pres and confirmed by the Senate, he is there with their sanction, but is not able to be "fired" in any conventional sense of the word. I also disagree that Greenspan is concerned about the market valuations. If he thinks he needs to change rates, he will. If the mkt tanks, then that is the mkt's problem, not his. He is responsible for monetary policy, not our trading habits. One answer everyone missed is that we have been now for several years at a point where Fed action was in the nature of "fine tuning" the economy. A point touched upon but where I will disagree in time frame is the effects of a change. From my experience, the Feds are working on modeling roughly nine months out. A few years ago it was about six months out and before that it was around three months. This is why they can make a change and so many can't understand it, the Feds are not reacting to the most recent economic report, they are comparing it to their model and what they expected. The danger right now is the sudden acceleration in growth shown by several recent reports. That is why I am already recognizing the chance of a 50 bp hike in May. If the reports keep coming out as strongly as they have been, then it should not be a big shock by then, but there will still be many who won't understand it or agree with it, mostly politicians. BTW, the one area where I think the Feds are politically sensitive is right before an election, thus they may either act early or wait till after the election to act. This isn't, IMHO, because they are politically motivated. Rather, it is because they don't want to become part of the political process and have their actions used to influence the outcome of an election. No flames please, just expressing my opinions based on a number of years trying to understand the workings and thinking of Greenspan in particular and the Feds in general from the outside. For the past two years, their decisions have actually made sense to me, so either I am beginning to understand or I just don't have the picture and am completely out of touch with reality. BTW some mkt commentators are already fishing for stuff to sell and looking over the historic actions by the Feds, pointing out that their average is five hikes once they start. I say again my opinion, the past is not an accurate guage to the future in today's marketplace. The Feds will act according to their models. Also, the tendency was to increase by 50 bp or more to kickstart the effect, then once the slowing economy was reached, to adjust down by 25 bp. Now, we are seeing increase of 25 bp since it was intended as an adjustment. Should growth indicators abate, then we may only see one more hike of 25 bp, but that is not showing yet which is why I am allowing for a 50 bp, then a cooling off period, and possibly another 25 bp after that in the fall. Beyond that, I think they will cool it at least for awhile, but time will tell. tom w ---------- > From: David F. Cameron > To: canslim@mail.xmission.com > Subject: [CANSLIM] Rate Hikes > Date: Tuesday, April 01, 1997 8:38 AM > > I have a question on rate hikes - if any of you have any insights > on this, please share with the group. > > This question is partly spurred by Tom's comment: > > > > The question is why? Why not just raise rates by a full point > and get it over with - why prolong the speculation? Some could ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: GoldFish Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Market Comments, March 31, 1997 Date: 02 Apr 1997 00:19:41 -0800 An interesting article from Barron to share with: http://www.barrons.com/articles/current/toc.html ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: OWENTIME@delphi.com Subject: [CANSLIM] thoughts on emerging sectors and chart patterns in choppy watters Date: 02 Apr 1997 00:28:44 -0500 (EST) The "zinger" like volatility is quite interesting and I'd appreciate any observations or guesses on what sector will emerge to fill the shoes of the tech. sector which may possibly need a rest. Will this mean more emphasis on "Dogs of the DOW" to insure a nice, healthy bottom line from here on? Alcoa? U.S.Steel? Silver? Boom in Gold after Bre-x blows over? Silver? One additional commet: Do any of you prefer flat tight bases to buy into vs. the cup with the handle in volatile markets to avoid dead cat bounces of the once high flying fliers with recently clipped wings in this hard to figure out shift in sectors driving this yet to be defined market? Comments? Hunches? Guesses? ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] thoughts on emerging sectors and chart patterns in choppy watters Date: 02 Apr 1997 00:46:41 -0500 I prefer a well defined, raging bull where even if I am wrong I can still make money. After that, refining my choices using charts is more fun. Lacking that, and esp in this kind of mkt, I like watching a solid base form and watching for a breakout on exceptional vol. Finding a true cup and handle right now is nearly impossible, finding a solid base with excellent CANSLIM nrs (won't accept anything less than excellent) is a little easier. tom w ---------- > From: OWENTIME@delphi.com > To: canslim@xmission.com > Subject: [CANSLIM] thoughts on emerging sectors and chart patterns in choppy watters > Date: Wednesday, April 02, 1997 12:28 AM > > One additional commet: Do any of you prefer flat tight bases to buy into > vs. the cup with the handle in volatile markets to avoid dead cat bounces ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Market Comments, March 31, 1997 Date: 02 Apr 1997 00:49:21 -0500 Nothing personal, but please don't connect my comments to anything Barron's has to say, even if they agree, in fact esp if they agree, with me. Haven't read the item yet, maybe when I am not so exhausted, but please, please, don't tie me in. If you want to post the article, start a fresh thread, please. I have a reputation, such as it is, to protect. tom w ---------- > From: GoldFish > To: canslim@mail.xmission.com > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Market Comments, March 31, 1997 > Date: Wednesday, April 02, 1997 3:19 AM > > An interesting article from Barron to share with: > > http://www.barrons.com/articles/current/toc.html ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Michael A Langston Subject: re: [CANSLIM] thoughts on emerging sectors and chart patterns in choppy watters Date: 02 Apr 1997 01:03:17 -0500 OWENTIME@delphi.com asks: > One additional commet: Do any of you prefer flat tight bases > to buy into vs. the cup with the handle in volatile markets to > avoid dead cat bounces... in general, i prefer flat base b/o's, even in more sanguine market conditions -- for some reason, a lot of folks who've just read o'neil seem to go into c&h mania mode -- the pattern does exist all right, but i find it a bit over-rated -- same for htf's (high tight flags) btw, here's an old war-horse whose canslim numbers are flaky right now, but w/ no debt, high roe, good earnings ests and insider buying: SDRC -- i mention it only because it is a HGS apparently trying to tighten up to a nice flat base here -- of course canslim plays are a no-no right now, but this one has shown in the past that it can fly -- although software stox are dead (group strength == 4), this *may* be one to keep a beady eye on if group speed picks up anytime soon mike langston ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: GoldFish Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Rate Hikes Date: 02 Apr 1997 07:24:02 -0800 pwahl@postoffice.worldnet.att.net wrote: > > > From: "David F. Cameron" > > > The question is why? Why not just raise rates by a full point > > and get it over with - why prolong the speculation? Some could > > say that - oh its because Greenspan is waiting to see the effect > > of the first hike. That's not valid. The effect he's looking > > for won't be seen for several months down the road. Others > > I'll take a stab at this one, but don't take this as the gospel > truth... > > First, I don't think it is that clear how strong or how weak > the economy is and what inflationary pressures are at any given point > in time. There are always a few conflicting signals. Right now the CPI > and PPI aren't showing that much inflation, but the housing and job > markets, among others, show a strong economy and the conditions that > produce inflation. Too great a rate hike will push the economy into > a recession, no rate hike and it is too late to do anything about > inflation when it does appear. Greenspan wants to tweak the economy > in a way that keeps the economy humming along with positive growth, > but minimal inflation, and that ain't easy to do, but he's done a > very good job so far. > > Second, the stock market is a consideration in his thinking, as he > has made clear in the last few months, and as it should be. What do > you think the market would do if he raised rates a full point? All > you have to do is look at what happened in the last week to answer > that question. (And I think Greenspan would be out of a job within a > day or two of raising rates a full point.) > > Does this answer your question, make any sense? A wonderful post! I have the same question and this post does make a lot of sense for me. Thanks! Sincerely, Haw-Jye Shyu ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "James Adams" Subject: [CANSLIM] INVX - Breakout Date: 02 Apr 1997 08:26:36 -0500 I mentioned INVX a couple of weeks ago and would like to revisit with the group. Yesterday it appears to have b/o from the cup base it was forming. Price was up 2.50 and vol increased 165%. They also broke above the 50dam for the first times since breaking below it on Jan 17 or thereabouts. CANSLIM #s - 97/99/B GRate=75% Debt=2% GrpRS=53; ROE=31%; PE=21; Fund=9%; 30% off 52 high of 35 1/4; Closed yesterday @ 27.00 up 2.50 on 1.9mil vol. ADV = 400k Any comments would be appreciated. Jim Adams Maysville, KY USA http://www.cris.com/~jimdams/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "David F. Cameron" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] INVX - Breakout Date: 02 Apr 1997 8:10:37 CST Jim writes: > I mentioned INVX a couple of weeks ago and would like to revisit with the > group. Yesterday it appears to have b/o from the cup base it was forming. > Price was up 2.50 and vol increased 165%. They also broke above the 50dam > for the first times since breaking below it on Jan 17 or thereabouts. > > CANSLIM #s - > 97/99/B GRate=75% Debt=2% GrpRS=53; ROE=31%; PE=21; Fund=9%; > 30% off 52 high of 35 1/4; Closed yesterday @ 27.00 up 2.50 on 1.9mil vol. > ADV = 400k > > Any comments would be appreciated. > Jim Adams Maysville, KY USA > http://www.cris.com/~jimdams/ > I like INVX on the whole - good CANSLIM stock - but I still don't think the timing is right. One, the market is too shaky. Two, the breakout is good over the 50 dma, but the stock is still 20% off its January high. This would keep me from buying. As the brokerage houses say - I'd call this a "hold" (which for them means you should have dumped it earlier - for me it means - if you own hold on - but don't buy...) Dave Cameron BTW, you do seem to be picking better stocks than when you started, IMHO - or maybe my judgment is slipping ;-) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "David F. Cameron" Subject: [CANSLIM] Re: Microsoft Site Date: 02 Apr 1997 8:15:21 CST James, THanks for the pointer to the Micro$oft investor site - but very few of the companies I watch/own have news - they don't seem to do much on the small stuff. Even Yahoo has a link to stock/company news which tops this for my purposes. BTW, good to have you back - nice to see you're not scared away by the concerns by some about your motives in being in this group. Dave Cameron ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Brenda" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Re: Microsoft Site Date: 02 Apr 1997 09:40:43 -0600 I do not know your age but I will reply this way. Most of the people today would stand with their mouth wide open to see a deal ever closed simply on the basis of a handshake or on a man's word. Today, "people", want it in writing, on paper, signed in blood with all t's crossed and i's dotted and checked and re-check by attorney for loop holes. It's really sorta sad. All of that actually guarantees nothing. It is a good feeling knowing what you stand for and when others are "of the current world" - someone of "the old world" can only feel sorry for them. Stepped back for a while, thought about it, and then decided that I have something to offer that others can use, I can use some of what is discussed, and I am asking NOTHING for it - I came back. Thanks for your comments and if you ever would like my opinion on something just ask me. You stated a "better place" to get news? Where? Have a good day and be careful. James ---------- > From: David F. Cameron > To: canslim@mail.xmission.com > Subject: [CANSLIM] Re: Microsoft Site > Date: Wednesday, April 02, 1997 8:15 AM > > James, > > THanks for the pointer to the Micro$oft investor site - but > very few of the companies I watch/own have news - they don't > seem to do much on the small stuff. Even Yahoo has a link > to stock/company news which tops this for my purposes. > > BTW, good to have you back - nice to see you're not scared > away by the concerns by some about your motives in being > in this group. > > Dave Cameron ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Johan Van Houtven Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] DELL and addition the investing Date: 02 Apr 1997 16:29:16 +0200 Tom, you wrote: >Sounds like a nice vacation, weather should be nice then. Bring a light >jacket cuz a late season cold front might sneak in and reach Orlando. Thanks. Last time we were there in March. It was quite cold then. People told me it was the coldest March in more than 10 years or so. So we'll come prepared. :) >If you think you may venture as far south as sunny Miami, let me know >and I will give you a phone nr and try to show you a little of the >area. It's really quite pretty. I know. I've been in Miami once. We did not have a lot of time so we saw very little. That's why I'd really like to come, since you obviously know where to go. I have tried to convince my wife and sister (who will be comming along this time) that this would be a very nice trip. But I couldn't convince them. They do not want to come because: - They have obviously watched to much Miami Vice: They are convinced crime is all over the place there. (I KNOW that is not true. I've been there.) - They argue that 5 city days is enough (that's our Orlando part). They want their 9 days on the beach. (I couldn't care less about the beach.) - They argue that the kids (2 and 4 year old) have more fun on the beach and near the pool than anywhere else. (Can't argue with that...) - We are having some friends fly in from Illinois for a few days, so that also limits the days that we have left. As you can see I can forget about comming with the whole party. But if you do not mind I'd like to come alone if I get the opportunity. I would have to drive from Fort Meyers and back in one day. Looking on the map, I guess that that is possible, but will it leave us enough time to visit a few things? Or would you advice to come another time. (I''ll be in Florida next time the organise the Siggraph there. That would be 1998 AFAIK.) --- Johan Van Houtven / CLICK! ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Zoran Mitrovski Subject: [CANSLIM] Bear-CANSLIM Date: 02 Apr 1997 11:05:16 -0500 (EST) Bears are lovable creatures, as well. I tought I wasn't going to like them but they are as cute as any bull can be. 1. get a DG 2. get a pencil 3. look for a liquid looser pattern on a preferably high PE stock - double top or, - nice gradual downward trend established by AT LEAST two descending peaks (the more the merrier) - U/D small, A/D worse than C, timeliness worse than C, and other DG parameters as low as possible and all preferably decreasing 4. draw a line through the congestion areas of the price peaks 5. check whether you are about to hit an important support level (mov. avg, old lows; the best is if they already failed to give any support while they have managed to do so more than couple of times in the past, i.e. precedent) 6. check for volume-price divergencies (you want increasing volume peaks on decreasing price lows) 7. check where the present price is within the channel (you want it to be close to the upper line drawn previously). Also, RS line should be in a macro down-trend but with small up, or horizontal pauses whenever the price approaches the upper trend line. Look for such a pause for entry, after checking out the precedents. 8. check the volume (if the price is close to the upper line you want decreased vol) 9. basically you want the volume to confirm your estimate for the crowd sentiment (the trend) 10. put a stop above the upper trend-line at a place which would suggest that the down-trend is over 11. check intraday chart for the past few days for a micro-confirmation of the macro-hypothesis 12. sell short a position that would produce a loss of 2% of your total assets if the buy-stop gets hit. The closer to the stop you are, the bigger position you can take. A sort of a reversed canslim that has worked for me lately. I am not quite sure I included everything I use to make a trading decison but these should be pretty much the basics. This can be improved in many ways. Plenty of candidates in DG. Too bad this was my last DG from the trial subscription, and I promised myself not to subscribe untill I defend my thesis proposal. Btw, DG-online testers, does the online DG let you draw lines on-screen? What TA tools will it offer? Also, I like Datek better than Etrade. Much faster, half-cheaper, no-frills, and you get the same quote.com charts In case I decide to write a "Bear-CANSLIM" book some day (thanks for the idea, Craig ;^)) Copyright@Zoran Mitrovski Cheers, Zoran ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: focusads@wgn.net Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Bear-CANSLIM Date: 02 Apr 1997 16:54:48 GMT On Wed, 2 Apr 1997 11:05:16 -0500 (EST), you wrote: > >Bears are lovable creatures, as well. I tought I wasn't=20 >going to like them but they are as cute as any bull can be. > >1. get a DG >2. get a pencil >3. look for a liquid looser pattern on a preferably high PE stock > - double top or, > - nice gradual downward trend established=20 > by AT LEAST two descending peaks (the more the merrier) > - U/D small, A/D worse than C, timeliness worse than C, and > other DG parameters as low as possible and all preferably=20 > decreasing=20 >4. draw a line through the congestion areas of the price peaks >5. check whether you are about to hit an important=20 > support level (mov. avg, old lows; the best is if they=20 > already failed to give any support while they have managed=20 > to do so more than couple of times in the past, i.e. precedent) >6. check for volume-price divergencies > (you want increasing volume peaks on decreasing price lows) >7. check where the present price is within the channel > (you want it to be close to the upper line drawn previously).=20 > Also, RS line should be in a macro down-trend but with small up,=20 > or horizontal pauses whenever the price approaches the upper trend=20 > line. Look for such a pause for entry, after checking out the=20 > precedents. >8. check the volume > (if the price is close to the upper line you want decreased vol) >9. basically you want the volume to confirm your estimate for the=20 > crowd sentiment (the trend) >10. put a stop above the upper trend-line at a place which=20 > would suggest that the down-trend is over >11. check intraday chart for the past few days for a=20 > micro-confirmation of the macro-hypothesis >12. sell short a position that would produce a loss of 2% of your=20 > total assets if the buy-stop gets hit. The closer to the stop=20 > you are, the bigger position you can take. > >A sort of a reversed canslim that has worked for me lately. >I am not quite sure I included everything I use to make a=20 >trading decison but these should be pretty much the basics. >This can be improved in many ways.=20 >Plenty of candidates in DG. Too bad this was my last DG from the=20 >trial subscription, and I promised myself not to subscribe untill=20 >I defend my thesis proposal. Btw, DG-online testers, does the=20 >online DG let you draw lines on-screen? What TA tools will it=20 >offer? > >Also, I like Datek better than Etrade. Much faster, half-cheaper, >no-frills, and you get the same quote.com charts=20 > >In case I decide to write a "Bear-CANSLIM" book some day (thanks=20 >for the idea, Craig ;^)) > >Copyright@Zoran Mitrovski > >Cheers, >Zoran > ----------- Zoran, Please, Tell us more! In todays environment, this sounds much more appealing than trying to find the "Winners"! Besides this is the most exciting subject matter That I've read about in this group in a long time! Look forward to your response(s). Thanks, Jeffrey M. Bliven ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Johan Van Houtven Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] DELL and addition the investing Date: 02 Apr 1997 19:23:51 +0200 Sorry guys, this obviously was meant to be a private email to Tom. I wrote: >Thanks. Last time we were there in March. It was quite cold then. People ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Zoran Mitrovski Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Bear-CANSLIM Date: 02 Apr 1997 12:36:16 -0500 (EST) For further study of Bear-CANSLIM... Three perfect examples on just one page spread of the latest DG (pg. 158-159) PAGE (Paging Network Inc) PMTC (Parametric Tech Corp) PRXL (Parexel Intl Corp) Cheers, Zoran ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Brenda" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Bear-CANSLIM Date: 02 Apr 1997 12:07:27 -0600 Hasn't PMTC just been added to one of the indexes? James ---------- > From: Zoran Mitrovski > To: canslim@mail.xmission.com > Cc: Zoran Mitrovski > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Bear-CANSLIM > Date: Wednesday, April 02, 1997 11:36 AM > > > For further study of Bear-CANSLIM... > Three perfect examples on just one page spread of > the latest DG (pg. 158-159) > > PAGE (Paging Network Inc) > PMTC (Parametric Tech Corp) > PRXL (Parexel Intl Corp) > > Cheers, > Zoran ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Jay Cliburn" Subject: [CANSLIM] Split info Date: 02 Apr 1997 12:28:48 -0700 On 24 March 1997, the MLHR made the following announcement: The Board of Herman Miller Inc , on March 18, 1997, declared a two-for-one stock split in the form of a 100 percent stock dividend to be paid April 15, 1997, to shareholders of record on March 31, 1997. If I buy 100 shares of MLHR today (2 April 1997) at price P, come April 15, will I own 200 shares valued at P/2 (where P is the share price at market close on 15 April 1997)? What about the "shareholders of record" clause in the press release? If I read the press release correctly (and I probably don't), traders who buy the stock between 31 March and 15 April will not participate in the split, but will simply wake up on 15 April having his or her MLHR share values cut in half. This *can't* be correct. Can it? I know that for "ordinary" dividends, the dividend "follows the share" until the ex-dividend date -- typically four days prior to the shareholder-of-record date. That is, the buyer of the share receives the dividend when it's paid, as long as he or she buys *before* the ex-dividend date. Between the shareholder-of-record date and the dividend payout date, the dividend "detaches" from the share and flows to the seller of the stock who sold during that time period, even though he or she no longer owns the stock. I'm confused by the split/dividend language in the press release. Can you set me straight? Thanks. -- Jay Cliburn | Space Dynamics Laboratory Computational Sciences Division | 1747 North Research Park Way Jay.Cliburn@sdl.usu.edu | Logan, Utah, USA 84341 (801) 755-4317 (voice) | (801) 755-4366 (fax) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Brian Nash Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] Bear-CANSLIM Date: 02 Apr 1997 11:37:10 -0800 > PMTC was added to the S&P 500 as of close of trading today, replacing > PAC, which was acquired by SBC. The announcement was made on S&Ps web > page last night. The usual pre-announcement is 5 days. It's not lost > on me that this stock is up 1 3/4 on the news. > > ---------- > From: Brenda[SMTP:bks@lcc.net] > Sent: Wednesday, April 02, 1997 1:07 PM > To: canslim@mail.xmission.com > Cc: Zoran Mitrovski > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Bear-CANSLIM > > Hasn't PMTC just been added to one of the indexes? > James > > ---------- > > From: Zoran Mitrovski > > To: canslim@mail.xmission.com > > Cc: Zoran Mitrovski > > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Bear-CANSLIM > > Date: Wednesday, April 02, 1997 11:36 AM > > > > > > For further study of Bear-CANSLIM... > > Three perfect examples on just one page spread of > > the latest DG (pg. 158-159) > > > > PAGE (Paging Network Inc) > > PMTC (Parametric Tech Corp) > > PRXL (Parexel Intl Corp) > > > > Cheers, > > Zoran > > ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Steve Subject: [CANSLIM] Bears and Spiders Date: 02 Apr 1997 12:31:33 -0800 Long time lurker, first time poster. Time for an introduction. Steve Grier San Francisco - home of 3Com park - believe me, everybody here still calls it Candlestick. Lawyer, 56, divorced, one kid in college. Mostly in funds, but have a trading account. O'Neil says that canslim will lose money in a down market. When the bear comes, I would like to do more than retreat to cash. Many believe that shorting Spiders (SPY-AMEX) is a good way to play. There is currently a large short interest in SPY. This would probably get very large if the bear bites. I know that SPY is a proxy for SP500 and that trading in SPY has no effect on the SP500, but is it possible that short covering on the way down could affect the price of the shares and disconnect it from the index so that it trades at a premium like a closed-end fund? How is it different from a closed-end fund in that way? What happens when more want to buy than want to sell at a given price? How can that not affect the price? I'm here to learn. If anybody knows about this, or has any comment on this as a bear market srategy, please post. Thanks Steve ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "David F. Cameron" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Re: Microsoft Site Date: 02 Apr 1997 13:47:30 CST > > I do not know your age but I will reply this way. Most of the people today > would stand with their mouth wide open to see a deal ever closed simply on Good point.... FYI I'm in my thirties... > Stepped back for a while, thought about it, and then decided that I > have something to offer that others can use, I can use some of what is > discussed, and I am asking NOTHING for it - I came back. Thanks for your > comments and if you ever would like my opinion on something just ask me. > You stated a "better place" to get news? Where? Check out www.merc.com > Have a good day and be careful. > James Later, Dave Cameron p.s Don't know 'bout PMTC being added to a major index, but IBD has profiled it extensively ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Robert Gammon" Subject: [CANSLIM] - Value Line Online Date: 02 Apr 1997 16:47:19 +0500 A bit off topic, but Value Line is getting fired up to place its stuff on WWW. See http://www.publishingresources.com/valueline/index.html *----------------------------------------------------------------------* Robert Gammon My opinions are my own. In no way do rgammon@micro.ti.com I represent the views of my employer Using OS/2 Warp Connect, and a user of every version of OS/2 since v1.0 *----------------------------------------------------------------------* ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Hicks, Mike J (PB-mjhicks)" Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] Bear-CANSLIM Date: 02 Apr 1997 16:40:44 -0800 I have heard that PMTC will be added to the S&P 500 index to replace PAC (Pacific Telesis) since SBC acquired it. Mike Hicks >---------- >From: Brenda[SMTP:bks@lcc.net] >Sent: Wednesday, April 02, 1997 10:07 AM >To: canslim@mail.xmission.com >Cc: Zoran Mitrovski >Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Bear-CANSLIM > >Hasn't PMTC just been added to one of the indexes? >James > >---------- >> From: Zoran Mitrovski >> To: canslim@mail.xmission.com >> Cc: Zoran Mitrovski >> Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Bear-CANSLIM >> Date: Wednesday, April 02, 1997 11:36 AM >> >> >> For further study of Bear-CANSLIM... >> Three perfect examples on just one page spread of >> the latest DG (pg. 158-159) >> >> PAGE (Paging Network Inc) >> PMTC (Parametric Tech Corp) >> PRXL (Parexel Intl Corp) >> >> Cheers, >> Zoran > ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] INVX - Breakout Date: 02 Apr 1997 21:38:53 -0500 Sorry but I still don't see the c&h, if you are referring to the short pattern over the past month or so, then the handle formed way too high. As to a b/o, could be, however today's vol slightly lower than avg. For a followthru, it wasn't. Timeliness is also a C. The recent increase in dividend is certainly encouraging, as are the last 4 earnings, and the upcoming report for Q2 ended 3/31 should be an easy comparison to last Q2 when they did 21 cents (last qtr, Q4 they did 42 cents) Watch out for the overhang up to 35.25 set in Jan. Hope you make some money on it, but be careful. tom w ---------- > From: James Adams > To: Canslim > Subject: [CANSLIM] INVX - Breakout > Date: Wednesday, April 02, 1997 8:26 AM > > I mentioned INVX a couple of weeks ago and would like to revisit with the > group. Yesterday it appears to have b/o from the cup base it was forming. > Price was up 2.50 and vol increased 165%. They also broke above the 50dam > for the first times since breaking below it on Jan 17 or thereabouts. > ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Re: Microsoft Site Date: 02 Apr 1997 21:49:18 -0500 Hi James, and I second Dave's comments. This seems an appropriate point to mention to the group that James is my secret "internet source" of some of the stocks I have recently mentioned. After the blast he took, he mentioned some of his currents picks privately to me, I did my CANSLIM homework and found most were viable ones to at least look at. I posted the ones I liked best, so far of them Miller Herman (MLHR) has been the pick of the litter, held up well in all the downdraft, up a buck today despite the mkt. One can only wonder where it would be now in just a neutral mkt. As I told James, I will be the first (if I am fast enough) to move for his removal should his membership here be for commercial purposes. But so long as he is here for the same reasons as the rest of us, to learn and share CANSLIM ideas, then he definitely has a lot to offer. And since he does it for a living, like I used to do, he has more time to dedicate than most of us. Glad to see you out of the lurker status on a full time basis, James. Welcome. BTW, that's one of the unique things about being a broker, virtually every "deal" is conducted on a basis of trust, often over the phone, and often without the assets available in the acct to cover a trade. tom w ---------- > From: Brenda > To: canslim@mail.xmission.com > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Re: Microsoft Site > Date: Wednesday, April 02, 1997 10:40 AM > > the basis of a handshake or on a man's word. Today, "people", want it in > writing, on paper, signed in blood with all t's crossed and i's dotted and > Stepped back for a while, thought about it, and then decided that I > have something to offer that others can use, I can use some of what is > discussed, and I am asking NOTHING for it - I came back. Thanks for your > comments and if you ever would like my opinion on something just ask me. > James > > ---------- > > From: David F. Cameron > > To: canslim@mail.xmission.com > > Subject: [CANSLIM] Re: Microsoft Site > > Date: Wednesday, April 02, 1997 8:15 AM > > > > BTW, good to have you back - nice to see you're not scared > > away by the concerns by some about your motives in being > > in this group. > > Dave Cameron ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Bear-CANSLIM Date: 02 Apr 1997 21:55:20 -0500 Nice review Zoran. DG online does allow you to draw lines, but so far have not figured out how to print the chart with the lines still there. Otherwise the drawing feature real good and in color. No TA or other screening ability that I have found so far. I suggested it so don't know if it may be offered in the final version. To get the same info you get in the printed books, you have to use two screens. Offsetting this is apparently all charts are there, not just the ones in the book. And speed of loading and displaying the charts is very fast, faster than you would find flipping pages in the book. tom w ---------- > From: Zoran Mitrovski > To: canslim@mail.xmission.com > Cc: Zoran Mitrovski > Subject: [CANSLIM] Bear-CANSLIM > Date: Wednesday, April 02, 1997 11:05 AM > > > Bears are lovable creatures, as well. I tought I wasn't > I defend my thesis proposal. Btw, DG-online testers, does the > online DG let you draw lines on-screen? What TA tools will it ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] DELL and addition the investing Date: 02 Apr 1997 22:02:39 -0500 Can't argue with the family's logic. Given a choice of the beach, pool, or touring a big city (however pretty) isn't much of a choice unless you either hate water, or can't choose between the pool and the beach! A round trip from Ft Myers isn't worth trying unless you like torturing yourself. It's a lot longer than it looks on the map, even with Alligator Alley now four-laned all the way across. Let's try and catch it next trip over, maybe by then I will have won the lottery and will have visited you in connection with visiting my brother in Belgium. BTW, what's a "siggraph"? tom w ---------- > From: Johan Van Houtven > To: canslim@mail.xmission.com > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] DELL and addition the investing > Date: Wednesday, April 02, 1997 9:29 AM > ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Split info Date: 02 Apr 1997 22:11:24 -0500 When you think about dividends, it is critical to recognize the different forms of payment. When it is a cash dividend, you must own the issue using the "record date", when it is a stock dividend, you must own it prior to the "pay" date. The price will always tell you. Example: stock closes at $25 day of record date, paying a 25 cent div. Next day it will show a prior day closing of $24.75 (div deducted) and then trade from there. On most broker computers there will also be a symbol showing it as trading "ex dividend". If it was a stock div, then it will trade at the pre-div (split) prices until the div is paid, at which time you will be entitled to the extra shares. WARNING: if you are trading on margin, you often will have a call created as the shares are often not credited to the acct right away, the BD has to wait for them to be delivered by the tfr agent, and I have seen this take up to two weeks. Meantime, the position is valued at half its original value. Easily handled without putting in more money by just reminding the BD you are waiting for the extra shares to be delivered. tom w ---------- > From: Jay Cliburn > To: canslim@xmission.com > Subject: [CANSLIM] Split info > Date: Wednesday, April 02, 1997 2:28 PM > > > If I read the press release correctly (and I probably don't), > traders who buy the stock between 31 March and 15 April will > not participate in the split, but will simply wake up on 15 > April having his or her MLHR share values cut in half. This > *can't* be correct. Can it? ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "John Iding" Subject: [CANSLIM] Yahoo ,,, earnings reports? Date: 02 Apr 1997 19:21:59 -0800 Interested in earnings report info from Yahoo ... did someone post they have this service now? How to access .... tried and everything I found was 'Pay' ... thanks ... John ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Brian Nash Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] Bear-CANSLIM Date: 02 Apr 1997 10:55:25 -0800 PMTC was added to the S&P 500 as of close of trading today, replacing PAC, which was acquired by SBC. The announcement was made on S&Ps web page last night. The usual pre-announcement is 5 days. It's not lost on me that this stock is up 1 3/4 on the news. > ---------- > From: Brenda[SMTP:bks@lcc.net] > Sent: Wednesday, April 02, 1997 1:07 PM > To: canslim@mail.xmission.com > Cc: Zoran Mitrovski > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Bear-CANSLIM > > Hasn't PMTC just been added to one of the indexes? > James > > ---------- > > From: Zoran Mitrovski > > To: canslim@mail.xmission.com > > Cc: Zoran Mitrovski > > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Bear-CANSLIM > > Date: Wednesday, April 02, 1997 11:36 AM > > > > > > For further study of Bear-CANSLIM... > > Three perfect examples on just one page spread of > > the latest DG (pg. 158-159) > > > > PAGE (Paging Network Inc) > > PMTC (Parametric Tech Corp) > > PRXL (Parexel Intl Corp) > > > > Cheers, > > Zoran > ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: [CANSLIM] Negative Pre-announcements Date: 02 Apr 1997 22:55:57 -0500 First, the ones I had noted yesterday, then stupidly left the notes at work, were: PSDI - today lost over 50%, down 15.625 FILE - today lost 4.875, down about 35% Ones that had reported during the day included FORE, which lost over a third before recovering about half of the loss, IFMX which lost almost a third if I remember right, and QKTN which lost 7.75 to close at 8.25. Today, I decided to be a little more scientific than just reporting on bad news. Saw earnings on INFS (InFocus), it jumped up nearly five pts today after pre-announcing its earnings (it had done a neg pre-ann previously) and indicating it would "only" miss analysts estimates by several cents. Saw Filenet (FILE) show positive territory for part of the day before losing another 7/8, some believe it will recover and become a possible takeover candidate. Saw WGTI down 50% on pre-ann, also another I didn't write down but was NASDAQ. Neg pre-ann after the close included DIMD, CNKT, MATH, and MKIE. There were others as well, but selected these as candidates for a little reviewing. Tonight, went to my best source, DG Online, (I love beta testing, hope this lasts forever, sorry guys, know some of you want to subscribe) and checked out the charts on all stocks mentioned above. Reassuringly, if you were following even the most basic of O'Neill's rules, you would not have been caught in one of these. Most had a RS in the low teens or worse, the two highest were 53 and 57. I think all had a/d of C or worse, same with timeliness. Most also had a ski slope chart, so even a trailing stop of 20% or more would have had you out long before the gap down resulting from the neg pre-ann. Just one more example of how following the rules can save you even greater losses. Hey Zoran, maybe there's another "shorting" tool for you in there as well. These 50% gap down days must really warm the hearts of a serious shorter. What's amazing to me is that virtually every day there is at least one stock being cut in half by pre-announcements. And as I found from this review, it is usually on a stock that has already been severely beaten down and punished. On PAGE: I have one broker (fortunately a "rich kid") who has convinced himself that PAGE is a good company and worth owning. He has been buying it since the teens (hit 7.625 I think, today). Now personally owns about 10,000 shares, don't even want to guess at his average but it's certainly over high 9 level, probably somewhere in double digits. After I had entered a number of orders for him, I finally found the time to look at a simple chart, and next time he brought me a ticket asked him what was he doing? He started telling me what a great co it was, blah blah blah, and I said just look at the chart, you have a clear trend, and it's not up. That conversation was just several days ago and about three dollars higher. Now why didn't I do the obvious and short the dog??? Goes to show what happens when you fight the tape (and trend). Much wiser to wait if you like the company so much, then buy it after a clear uptrend has been established. Yeah, you won't catch the bottom, it will cost you more, but your capital: isn't tied up so long; isn't at so much risk; and probability of making a profit vs a tax writeoff much greater. Nice to have CANSLIM reinforced in real life. Just wish I could be so casual about a $30,000 or so "paper" loss in a matter of a few weeks. tom w tom w ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: musicant@autobahn.org (Dan Musicant) Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Rate Hikes Date: 03 Apr 1997 04:06:13 GMT I am not an economist, but it does not take *that* kind of education to understand the psychology behind incremental methodology on the part of the Fed. Any move on Greenspan's part is likely to be viewed with the apprehensiveness you might see in a crowded Indian street when an elephant gets itchy...watch your toes.=20 Any action will have major repurcusions, so rumours surround all intentions and meetings.=20 I don't mean to flame anyone and certainly don't claim to have the answers, but I can't disagree with one assessment I read a few days ago (as I read it I found my feelings/thoughts resonating) from a fellow who maintained that Greenspan's real intentions are not to stave off an inflation that is a projection of trends at this time (with no concrete substantiating figures), but that Alan, more than anything, wants to slow down the bull market in stocks. Undoubtedly, he feels that if he can prevent a recession he will be discharging his job adequately -- wonderfully actually, considering the propensity of capitalist economies to suffer in this way periodically. That is his main goal...to keep the economy on an even keel. He does not want the markets to tumble. He probably doesn't mind seeing the slow deflation we have been seeing, and ultimately would like to see "reasonable" growth. I don't think he's wrong in worrying that a 20 to 30% yearly growth rate of the indexes may ultimately lead to a crash. And a crash could put us into a recession (likely) and a depression (quite possibly). And don't forget about the Y2K=3DYear 2000 computer problem. People in the know think this is a major hurdle that is dead ahead, like some Nostra Damus prediction. Ha ha. (What, me worry?) Dan Musicant ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: GoldFish Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Yahoo ,,, earnings reports? Date: 02 Apr 1997 23:30:30 -0800 John Iding wrote: > > Interested in earnings report info from Yahoo ... did someone post they > have this service now? How to access .... tried and everything I found was > 'Pay' ... thanks ... John I use "MyYahoo" with that you can create your own portfolio. You can use Yahoo Quote too. With (almost) every company you quoted with Yahoo, there is a research, news, company profile, chart. Under the hyperlink of news (shown in blue), you will find press release, Wall Street, earning release and etc. Under the hyperlink of research (shonw in blue), you will find the consensus of alanysts who following the stock. I find it is very helpful. Another good site that I like is Barron on line. Have fun in surfing the WEB! HJS ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Brenda" Subject: [CANSLIM] Buying In This Market? Date: 02 Apr 1997 23:37:32 -0600 Tonight while I was looking through stocks I noticed a few that, "if I were buying tomorrow", I would pick from. These would be new positions. The ones I would consider were: SVM (nice upward move lately could be due to the recent buy-back which my news source says is now completed), ASTSF (previous comments here were not exactly favorable on this stock but it just keeps hanging around without falling), QNTM (I have always liked this stock but have recently been forced out of it with stop/loss in place), TUES (Have bought this one twice, got out losing money twice, and it just keeps popping back up about to break into new high ground even in this atmosphere), and DDIM -(This one scares me to death but has hit new 52 week highs several days in a row.). Oh well, no touting, no recommending. Just the ones that I was considering earlier tonight. WILL be buying ONE of them. Order is already placed. Tom mentioned MLHR earlier and I wish I were brave enough to put more of my eggs into this basket. However, it seems that when too many eggs are in one basket that is the VERY basket that breaks. Didn't see anybody predicting a bottom tonight but I may have just missed it. Looks like, if the market is looking for a place to stop and rest, 6500 could be a very good technical place to consolidate. Fly down past this and who knows? Tom? Your guess? I am going to guess that the market intra day will break the 6500 on the downside, close above it, and "hopefully" hang around here for a few days. The non-farm payroll jobs number (Friday?) could blow a hole in anything. Ya'll have a good one and remember to be extremely careful. My Wall Chart is down to 37 stocks. Never been below 100 until the last 30 days. Need to find some of those irrationally exuberant stocks. They don't seem to be on my computer. Tell Mr. G. to give me a call. James ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Split info Date: 03 Apr 1997 01:16:27 -0500 Having handled several hundred, at least, ACAT transfers plus a number of other type transfers, I can say with authority that a broker dealer to broker dealer transfer of an account today will take a normal eight to nine business days. If it is an IRA, it may take an addl day or so since the receiving custodian must first accept the acct and its assets. Are you in limbo during this time? Absolutely not. You can always sell in anticipation of delivery. Is it a good idea? No, cuz things can go wrong, and delivery can be delayed beyond today's T+3 (3 day) settlement. On the other hand, any decent firm will have no problem with a sale of assets yet to be delivered once they have received the inventory of those assets (typically occurs about day 3 of the 8 day cycle). Where things get complicated is when you are transferring from a bank or other not "broker dealer" and/or where the assets are not "DTC eligible". What many don't realize is that the physical certificate, once in "street" name, are usually held by DTC (Depository Trust Corp) rather than the BD. If the shares are sold, for example, by Merrill Lynch, and are bot by Dean Witter, then instructions are sent to DTC to move them from the Merrill shelf to the Witter shelf. But when the assets are not DTC eligible, they must be physically moved between the delivering BD, the tfr agent, and the receiving BD. This will delay the process. And in some cases, the item is a "proprietary" product, such as an inhouse mutual fund, and must be liquidated first, then transferred as cash. The big wirehouses, once they are notified they are losing an acct, will play some extraordinary games to delay delivery. Basically at that point, you lose all service from the losing BD. As to selling a stock that has been acquired by another co, yes there can be delays, but as I mentioned before, they can be reasonably overcome. Arbitragers play this game all the time, just in bigger nrs. There is also the option, in some cases, of trading in "when issued" shares. And if you waited until after the acquisition was completed (usually takes six weeks or more from announcement) to realize your 100 shares were being acquired, then I would have to say you are not paying attention to your portfolio, and should get a full service broker who will. Not a flame James, just a voice of experience from within the industry. I never had a client who just realized his stock had been "acquired", they all knew well before the fact and had a game plan ready. tom w ---------- > From: Brenda > To: canslim@mail.xmission.com > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Split info > Date: Thursday, April 03, 1997 12:25 AM > > Here's a scary thought that is actual fact. Let's say you owned OXFD > yesterday and enjoyed the close up over one. This morning you notice it is > not trading. You keep getting quotes and never a share is traded. Finally, > you call and find out that for each share of OXFD you owned yesterday you > now own .9085 (or something close) shares of BBI - Barnett Bank. Well, ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Rate Hikes Date: 03 Apr 1997 00:57:49 -0500 I will repeat what I have said before, based on my efforts to first understand, then next to anticipate, Fed actions and decisions. So far I have been on target, so I consider myself an "expert" within my personal peer group of one (:-)). Greenspan is not a stock guru (like me), he is a monetary guru (I'm still a novice). A market crash doesn't cause a recession or a depression, the economy does. A recession or depression can cause a mkt crash, esp if the mkt is overvalued. Yes, having taken office only weeks before the '87 crash, Greenspan doesn't want a reoccurrence on his "watch", so he is sensitive to this potential. Personally, I think there have been times where he has gritted his teeth and trusted his models more than he would like, in a belief/theory that the economy was slowing, rather than raising rates again (as a true insurance hike) and risking major damage to the stock mkt. The only true direct effect on the economy of a "crash" is people/investors have less paper dollars to spend, and likely less confidence in spending what they really have. The valuations shown by the stock mkt are a factor, but from my readings only a minor one, in Greenspan's assessments and decision making on the economy. In truth, it is hard to sustain a 20 to 30% move in the market for more than a year or so, and then only if you started from an undervalued level. The mkt is surprisingly self-correcting, as we are currently and painfully seeing. As to the year 2000 stocks, my read on this topic is that it is an extremely overblown issue, but great for the media airheads. What a goof, all these programmers being so short sighted that they never considered the turn of the century, how humble to presume their software would be phased out long before by someone who could write smarter code to accept greater date specific data. Having designed and written the code for several systems in the late 70s and early 80s, I allowed for the turn of the century, not because I was egotistic, simply because I was detail oriented and 1906 was far more accurate, and took up relatively little addl space even back then than 06 when data storage was far more expensive than now. Yeah, there are some cos that still have their head in the sand, but the vast majority will have this problem solved long before the turn of the century. And having taken several data bases and done major format, data element type and size restructuring, recoding of coded fields, new report generation, and data search criteria, I still don't understand the hoopla over y2000. To me, it's not that big a deal, and any sizable firm with an inhouse MIS staff should be able to handle it w/o a problem, esp with nearly three years remaining. It's good media, but not necessarily good business. tom w---------- fellow who maintained that Greenspan's real intentions are not to stave off an inflation that is a projection of trends at this time (with no concrete substantiating figures), but that Alan, more than anything, wants to slow down the bull market in stocks. Undoubtedly, we have been seeing, and ultimately would like to see "reasonable" growth. I don't think he's wrong in worrying that a 20 to 30% yearly growth rate of the indexes may ultimately lead to a crash. And a crash could put us into a recession (likely) and a depression (quite possibly). And don't forget about the Y2K=Year 2000 computer problem. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Buying In This Market? Date: 03 Apr 1997 01:33:13 -0500 What I like about MLHR is its endurance in the midst of a bloodbath and its CANSLIM nrs. The upcoming split may be helping some of this, and it may also simply be a "safe haven" for those that must be invested. I still feel that we are at a consolidation point. As I mentioned, yesterday's action encouraged me in this opinion. This selloff has long passed the point where it can be explained on fundamental or overvalued grounds. Now, it is purely emotional and reactive. I feel very strongly that, by and large, sellers right now are doing a Garzarelli and will regret it within weeks or days. After my review tonite of those stocks with neg earnings preannouncements, esp those being sliced and diced by 30 to 50% in a single day, I have even more confidence in those few stocks that have held up that show strong CANSLIM nrs. And the fastest thing to change in the mkt is investor psychology. Let us have two or three decent days in a row, and the airhead commentators will be talking about how we have "turned the corner", "bottomed out", "consolidating before another run up", "healthy correction" blah blah blah, and everyone will be running to chase the mkt back up a ways. The down side on the Dow 30 that I see is about 6200 right now, but I see that as an outside chance. What I would like to see is two or three days where all major indexes show a half percent or so move up with good vol. This is cherry picking season, and that is probably all it would take to bring out the sidelined cash. tom w ---------- > From: Brenda > To: canslim > Subject: [CANSLIM] Buying In This Market? > Date: Thursday, April 03, 1997 12:37 AM > > > Tom mentioned MLHR earlier and I wish I were brave enough to put more of my > eggs into this basket. However, it seems that when too many eggs are in one > basket that is the VERY basket that breaks. > > Didn't see anybody predicting a bottom tonight but I may have just missed > it. Looks like, if the market is looking for a place to stop and rest, 6500 > could be a very good technical place to consolidate. Fly down past this and > who knows? Tom? Your guess? I am going to guess that the market intra day > will break the 6500 on the downside, close above it, and "hopefully" hang > around here for a few days. The non-farm payroll jobs number (Friday?) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Bears and Spiders Date: 03 Apr 1997 01:39:18 -0500 Historically, O'Neill would about match the S&P500 in a down mkt, then beat the socks off it in an up mkt. Let's hear it for Candlestick, The City is one of the few "big" cities where I felt safe walking around late at night ('76-'79). Hope it hasn't changed, still want to go back and visit. Fisherman's Wharf and Giardelli Square hold special sentimental memories of times with my wife. If there is already an existing large short position in SPY, why would you want to chase it? Find another one to short that hasn't been so well discovered. You are correct, if it tanks, at least some of the shorts will cover, creating buyside pressue, which could completely reverse a "tank". tom w ---------- > From: Steve > To: canslim@mail.xmission.com > Subject: [CANSLIM] Bears and Spiders > Date: Wednesday, April 02, 1997 3:31 PM > > calls it Candlestick. > > O'Neil says that canslim will lose money in a down market. When the > > There is currently a large short interest in SPY. This would probably > get very large if the bear bites. > > > effect on the SP500, but is it possible that short covering on the way ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Michael" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Bear-CANSLIM Date: 02 Apr 1997 21:46:19 -0900 Sorry to have missed the location of DG online. Could someone please help with the address? ---------- > From: Tom Worley > To: canslim@mail.xmission.com > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Bear-CANSLIM > Date: Wednesday, April 02, 1997 5:55 PM > > Nice review Zoran. > DG online does allow you to draw lines ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Eccless@aol.com Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Ticker Symbols Date: 03 Apr 1997 07:10:31 -0500 (EST) For the benefit of people like me who are unable to identify each company by it's ticker symbol, it would be nice if companies could be identified by name rather than just a ticker symbol. I can't look up a stock in Investors' Business Daily or The Wall Street Journal or even in Daily Graphs using a ticker symbol; the listings are arranged alphabetically by name. For example: "Filene's Basement (BSMT) has opened a lot of stores lately. BSMT is a stock to watch carefully." In this way we won't be looking for BSMT in the listings under "B" rather than "F." Douglas Herman ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Eccless@aol.com Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Ticker Symbols Date: 03 Apr 1997 07:10:31 -0500 (EST) For the benefit of people like me who are unable to identify each company by it's ticker symbol, it would be nice if companies could be identified by name rather than just a ticker symbol. I can't look up a stock in Investors' Business Daily or The Wall Street Journal or even in Daily Graphs using a ticker symbol; the listings are arranged alphabetically by name. For example: "Filene's Basement (BSMT) has opened a lot of stores lately. BSMT is a stock to watch carefully." In this way we won't be looking for BSMT in the listings under "B" rather than "F." Douglas Herman AAAAwAAAAAAAAEYAAAAAOIUAAAEAAAABAAAAAAAAAB4APQABAAAABQAAAFJFOiAAAAAAAwANNP03 AADUag== ------ =_NextPart_000_01BC3FF7.926FBE40-- ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Brenda" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Split info Date: 03 Apr 1997 08:22:24 -0600 ---------- > From: Tom Worley > To: canslim@mail.xmission.com > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Split info > Date: Thursday, April 03, 1997 12:16 AM > > Having handled several hundred, at least, ACAT transfers plus a number > of other type transfers, I can say with authority that a broker dealer > to broker dealer transfer of an account today will take a normal eight > to nine business days. If it is an IRA, it may take an addl day or so > since the receiving custodian must first accept the acct and its > assets. Are you in limbo during this time? Absolutely not. You can > always sell in anticipation of delivery. Is it a good idea? No, cuz > things can go wrong, and delivery can be delayed beyond today's T+3 (3 > day) settlement. On the other hand, any decent firm will have no > problem with a sale of assets yet to be delivered once they have > received the inventory of those assets (typically occurs about day 3 of > the 8 day cycle). Where things get complicated is when you are > transferring from a bank or other not "broker dealer" and/or where the > assets are not "DTC eligible". > > Hate to say this Tom but your story is wonderful but "in the real world" it is just not true for all. Sorry! Ture story. Jack White received the paper work for a transfer with ALL forms properly completed in their hands on Feb 18th. Transfer from Schwab was finally completed on March 26th. And what is AMAZING was that it was not even stocks. It was cold hard cash. They actually had the payment three days prior to having the account open for trading that I am aware of. Sooner than that? Probably. Now it was an account in the six figure range. Also, mail in an app to open an account with a CASHIER's CHECK and it will take 3 days before you can trade. True I have never seen this anywhere else although I know it must exist. My previous experiences with four other brokerages has been somewhat better than this. However, each house has it's own pluses and minuses. I just thought to be ranked NUMBER ONE for three years in a row by that magazine...... Whew! Hate to see what experiences with number 10 might be like. Remember Dragnet? Oh well, just one of many stories out there. Have a good day. James ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: perinvm@ibm.net (Gui Meyen) Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] - On Quotes Plus Date: 03 Apr 1997 15:44:59 GMT Quotes Plus is a quote program which has a Canslim filtering capability (albeit a very limited one). Usually when I do the scanning there are about 40 - 80 candidates on the output. So guess how many are coming out these days: About 8. As of today: BSNX=20 CEBC=20 CGNE=20 MK =20 NDN =20 SNM =20 SVM =20 TCNJ =20 Gui. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: musicant@autobahn.org (Dan Musicant) Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Rate Hikes Date: 03 Apr 1997 14:54:59 GMT I only suggested that a market crash would be likely to bring on a recession and a possible depression because that was the chain of events in 1929 and into the 30's. I saw a post (don't know if it was accurate) a couple of days ago that asserted that someone who suffered the brunt of the 1929 crash and didn't get out of the market would not have achieved even status until 1955. Vis a vis Y2K... I had the same opinion as you, Tom, until I posted that opinion (in not so much detail as you just did) in the misc.invest.stocks UseNet group and got a couple of replies from a programmer/analyst who insisted that I did not know what I was talking about. I am a computer programmer by profession, but I deal in 4th generation languages, and the depth of my knowledge in the computer field is decent, some would say tremendous (I'm sure), but I know that in comparison to some people, it's not great. This person insisted that everyone he knows who is truly in a position to assess the importance of Y2K is convinced that it will be a very major problem. I will post some of the interchange below for those who are interested: ---- Here is a message I posted to the above mentioned newsgroup: On Fri, 10 Jan 1997 10:47:40 +0000, Peter Webb wrote: A post I answered on the newsgroup: :Definately overdone, I think that the media have done a great job in :turning this mundane issue into a sensantional story that will run into :the next century. My UseNet reply: Very much so. In fact, I don't think I have seen it nearly as overdone as in the lengthy statements above in this thread. I doubt that the "Year 2000 bug" will amount to much more than a blip on the radar screen in the big picture. Virtually all of the systems affected are those that were not thought to be likely to survive until the turn of the century. That has to be a small percentage. The cost of replacing what was thought to be not worth keeping...how great can that be. Be realistic. Dan ---- Here is a reply to me: =46rom: kiyoinc@ibm.net ** Reply to note from musicant@autobahn.org (Dan Musicant) Sat, 18 Jan 1997 05:32:47 GMT=20 =20 Thanks for writing Dan, I HOPE you are right and I am=20 wrong. I don't think so. As I posted on usenet, I have=20 surveyed my circle of Wizards and experts and all of them=20 KNOW that this is a big problem. =20 =20 I am confident in my ability as an large systems,=20 enterprise guy. M.S. Computer Science, Operating Systems=20 internals, lots of time spent building and fixing very=20 large software systems, the systems that run the=20 civilized world. =20 =20 Again, I hope you are right but I know you are very=20 wrong. It's not personal, you are arguing that cancer,=20 heart disease, etc. are not big problems and you are=20 arguing with specialists who treat cancer and heart=20 disease.=20 Cory Hamasaki Kiyo Design, Inc. http://www.kiyoinc.com =20 11 Annapolis St. Voice: (410) 280-1942 =20 Annapolis, Md 21401 Fax: (410) 280-2793 ---- Here is another message from Mr. Hamasaki: =46rom: kiyoinc@ibm.net ** Reply to note from musicant@autobahn.org (Dan Musicant) Mon, 20 Jan 1997 22:43:16 GMT=20 d.m.'s words: > To me, computer systems, hardware and software are not black boxes. In=20 > an era when division of labor has gotten more and more necessary, I=20 > (for one) am not pleased when I am told that I have no kind of idea=20 > what is involved in something. It's just part of the way I am. Please=20 =20 No one likes to be told that and I wasn't picking on YOU, but on the=20 generic USENET.=20 =20 > excuse my ignorance or what you may have perceived as brashness in=20 > challenging you. You are probably very correct, and evidently are in=20 > an incalculably better position to evaluate the nature of the Y2K=20 > computer information systems problem and it's significance.=3D20=20 =20 I don't know what the outcome will be. =20 =20 Here's more information to mull over. The IRS has a monthly job=20 that takes 3 weeks to run. This job is written in S/370 assembly language at a very low level. It reads hundreds of ultra high density tapes that are full of dates. This job will fail when 1999 rolls to 2000.=20 =20 They know it will fail but they can't fix it. Since it takes 3 weeks to run, they don't have time to rerun it if it fails in conversion. IBM says their systems and software are compliant. That's not exactly true. The newest versions of some IBM products are compliant. IBM has announced that all versions will soon be compliant BUT it can take months or years to convert applications to work with new products. Much as if you spent 2-3 years coding up a big dBase II application and suddenly had to convert to Foxpro. =20 A State Farm, Mobil Oil, or GM may have 100 programmers working for 20-30 years on the application system. Where you might code up a dozen reports off Foxpro, the enterprise user has thousands of reports, some going to other companies and government agencies. =20 =20 Change a table and hundreds of systems fail across the company and in=20 other companies. Change from one product to another and the 100=20 programmers will have their hands full for years. =20 =20 If you are working as a computer consultant, you will do very well over the next few years. There are lots of Foxpro applications that will require adjusting or review. There may also be a trend to rehost the smaller enterprise applications onto Foxpro and Access databases. =20 =20 > =20 > Dan Musicant=20 > =20 =20 Don't let them take advantage of you. Make sure that you are paid for overtime work. =20 =20 Everyone I know has a bad feeling about this one. You'll see me make=20 light of it on Usenet but my guess is that we were out of time 4 years ago. We're in survival mode now. =20 >OK, fact is I don't know how big a problem it is. But it is true that >anyone forward thinking would have written program code that would not >self destruct in 2k. Anyone who did, didn't expect their code to be >in use in 2k. Anyone with sense in a position to do anything about it >is not sitting on their hands. It is possible to test systems for this >problem before 2k comes. Anyone who doesn't is asking for it. I live >where a devastating earthquake could and someday will bring things to >a serious standstill, and the fix will take decades. That worries me >more. The prospect of the roof falling on your head is more daunting, >don't you think? They didn't do it on purpose, these are 30 year old systems and new programs that read files produced by 30 year old systems. This problem sneaked up on us. The problem itself is easy to fix. Any one program or file can be=20 effortlessly repaired, the problem is that there are tens of thousands of programs and files in any large organization. I'm not sure that the threat is a catastrophic failure like a roof=20 falling. There will certainly be some dramatic failures but there will also be a tremendous toll as costs increase and payments are delayed. How about if inflation spins up for 3-4 years at 20% or a couple large banks close for a week to restart their main database. =20 Cory Hamasaki Kiyo Design, Inc. http://www.kiyoinc.com =20 11 Annapolis St. Voice: (410) 280-1942 =20 Annapolis, Md 21401 Fax: (410) 280-2793 =20 =20 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Joseph Vaughn-Perling Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] Bear-CANSLIM Date: 03 Apr 1997 07:03:00 -0800 ------ =_NextPart_000_01BC3FFD.11F7CEA0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="us-ascii" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable Yes the line draw feature made it into the later beta versions. The = screening capability is reserved for the WONDA product for now which has = a slightly higher price and is currently marketed to institutional = investors. WONDA has over 2000 different items on which to screen. (I = think it is around 2500 now). To print a screen with line drawings on it you can hit the "Print = Screen" key on your keyboard (this will copy the screen into the = computer's memory), then open your favorite word processor or graphics = program and paste the image, then print. All opinions expressed are my own and are not necessarily those of my = employer. Joseph Vaughn-Perling http://www.dailygraphs.com William O'Neil & Co. http://www.investors.com #Include disclaimer.h=09 =09 -----Original Message----- Sent: Wednesday, April 02, 1997 6:55 PM Nice review Zoran. DG online does allow you to draw lines, but so far have not figured out how to print the chart with the lines still there. Otherwise the drawing feature real good and in color. No TA or other screening ability that I have found so far. I suggested it so don't know if it may be offered in the final version. To get the same info you get in the printed books, you have to use two screens. Offsetting this is apparently all charts are there, not just the ones in the book. And speed of loading and displaying the charts is very fast, faster than you would find flipping pages in the book. tom w ---------- > From: Zoran Mitrovski > To: canslim@mail.xmission.com > Cc: Zoran Mitrovski > Subject: [CANSLIM] Bear-CANSLIM > Date: Wednesday, April 02, 1997 11:05 AM >=20 >=20 > Bears are lovable creatures, as well. I tought I wasn't=20 > I defend my thesis proposal. Btw, DG-online testers, does the=20 > online DG let you draw lines on-screen? 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Those graphs (aka - price patterns) are a further testimony to how ridiculous it is for ANYBODY to say that we are overvalued. I look at over 3000 of what used to be the best of the best stocks. Currently only 37 make a list of stocks that I consider worth looking at. It is usually a couple of hundred. Seems the two of us are coming to the same point albeit by different means. James ---------- Quotes Plus is a quote program which has a Canslim filtering capability (albeit a very limited one). Usually when I do the scanning there are about 40 - 80 candidates on the output. So guess how many are coming out these days: About 8. As of today: BSNX CEBC CGNE MK NDN SNM SVM TCNJ Gui. ---------- ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Joseph Vaughn-Perling Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] Bear-CANSLIM Date: 03 Apr 1997 07:24:32 -0800 ------ =_NextPart_000_01BC4000.13EBCF10 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="us-ascii" Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit It is still in Beta Testing. Expect a public release circa April 15 1997. All opinions expressed are my own and are not necessarily those of my employer. Joseph Vaughn-Perling http://www.dailygraphs.com William O'Neil & Co. http://www.investors.com #Include disclaimer.h -----Original Message----- Sent: Wednesday, April 02, 1997 10:46 PM Sorry to have missed the location of DG online. Could someone please help with the address? ---------- > From: Tom Worley > To: canslim@mail.xmission.com > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Bear-CANSLIM > Date: Wednesday, April 02, 1997 5:55 PM > > Nice review Zoran. > DG online does allow you to draw lines ------ =_NextPart_000_01BC4000.13EBCF10 Content-Type: application/ms-tnef Content-Transfer-Encoding: base64 eJ8+IiEPAQaQCAAEAAAAAAABAAEAAQeQBgAIAAAA5AQAAAAAAADoAAEIgAcAGAAAAElQTS5NaWNy b3NvZnQgTWFpbC5Ob3RlADEIAQ2ABAACAAAAAgACAAEEkAYA0AEAAAEAAAAQAAAAAwAAMAIAAAAL AA8OAAAAAAIB/w8BAAAAUQAAAAAAAACBKx+kvqMQGZ1uAN0BD1QCAAAAAGNhbnNsaW1AbWFpbC54 bWlzc2lvbi5jb20AU01UUABjYW5zbGltQG1haWwueG1pc3Npb24uY29tAAAAAB4AAjABAAAABQAA AFNNVFAAAAAAHgADMAEAAAAaAAAAY2Fuc2xpbUBtYWlsLnhtaXNzaW9uLmNvbQAAAAMAFQwBAAAA AwD+DwYAAAAeAAEwAQAAABwAAAAnY2Fuc2xpbUBtYWlsLnhtaXNzaW9uLmNvbScAAgELMAEAAAAf AAAAU01UUDpDQU5TTElNQE1BSUwuWE1JU1NJT04uQ09NAAADAAA5AAAAAAsAQDoBAAAAHgD2XwEA AAAaAAAAY2Fuc2xpbUBtYWlsLnhtaXNzaW9uLmNvbQAAAAIB918BAAAAUQAAAAAAAACBKx+kvqMQ GZ1uAN0BD1QCAAAAAGNhbnNsaW1AbWFpbC54bWlzc2lvbi5jb20AU01UUABjYW5zbGltQG1haWwu eG1pc3Npb24uY29tAAAAAAMA/V8BAAAAAwD/XwAAAAACAfYPAQAAAAQAAAAAAAACwWgBBIABABsA AABSRTogW0NBTlNMSU1dIEJlYXItQ0FOU0xJTQB+BwEFgAMADgAAAM0HBAADAAcAGAAgAAQAHgEB IIADAA4AAADNBwQAAwAHABcAAAAEAP0AAQmAAQAhAAAAQjlBRUJCRDBBRkFBRDAxMTgwODAwMDAw RjgwMkY4RDMAPQcBA5AGAIQGAAAhAAAACwACAAEAAAALACMAAAAAAAMAJgAAAAAACwApAAAAAAAD AC4AAAAAAAMANgAAAAAAQAA5AEBEcyFDQLwBHgBwAAEAAAAbAAAAUkU6IFtDQU5TTElNXSBCZWFy LUNBTlNMSU0AAAIBcQABAAAAFgAAAAG8QEMhTdC7rrqqrxHQgIAAAPgC+NMAAB4AHgwBAAAABQAA AFNNVFAAAAAAHgAfDAEAAAAYAAAAcGVybGluZ0BkYWlseWdyYXBocy5jb20AAwAGEIs+NRADAAcQ cAIAAB4ACBABAAAAZQAAAElUSVNTVElMTElOQkVUQVRFU1RJTkdFWFBFQ1RBUFVCTElDUkVMRUFT RUNJUkNBQVBSSUwxNTE5OTdBTExPUElOSU9OU0VYUFJFU1NFREFSRU1ZT1dOQU5EQVJFTk9UTkVD RVMAAAAAAgEJEAEAAABkAwAAYAMAACYFAABMWkZ1eYRxLXcACgEDAfcgAqQD4wIAY4JoCsBzZXQw IAcTjwKDAFAC8g9ZVGFoA3GFAoMyDudwcnEyD/YmfQqACMggOwlvMjVmNQKACoF1YwBQCwNjAwBB C2BuZzEwMzMZC6YgSQVABAAgc3SnAxADIAuAIEIPwGERoAcHkBiQFzAuICBFeE5wBZAFQBlAcHUC YGlEYyAJcGxlYQ+wINBjaXJjGUBBEwADEYQxNRwwOTk3LgqiHwqECoQWsgLREKFzMTfTD/AYsW9w C4BpAiAEIH5lGhAJcAQQCYAaYAlwIHRteR7QdwOgAHAf9G76bwVAbgWQH7EKwAMQIGAmdBHQG1Fv ZiBCZW1ZC1BveQSQHLVKImFwAGggVmF1Z2hu/C1QBJAawBcwDIQMoRbSCnUDIGgCQHA6Ly9ydyaw LmQLcCIQCcBh6SQwcy4FoG0d0yYQAUANHNNXGKEHMG0gTyfzB8ADESYgCFAcsCVWJZ97JqMLgHYZ cQWwJ58KgCOYSW5jCkABACBkBADvLdALcAeAI3BoKkcdOxCh5wvFHTkawDM2AUAd4hMAhyFQGjES RDE2IC0zQnpPBRBnC4AHQAXQIbJnfmUzQxzGMlQoUwsxMlZpMC0xNDQBQBrAMTiOMAFADNA242Ig RgNh6joMg2IP4E0a0A+AGxAAIFtTTVRQOm3AaWtlcUBhAiAlAfplLIJdHMU4EAZgAjA4d5ZXCYAh gHMm8HksG9UcMDI88BxyHDAwOjTJMyBQTTsHVG84dxuwMwCAGsBtQADAAxAueL854AQQHyEsgzsX GqBqGjEROHdSZTo5cENBTmBTTElNXRkBCsAtX0M1NO81+jGkMHtTBbBy9SIhbyYwYSwQIEAEAR/h fyJAG2AJABuwGJACICKSRL5HHtA6ZCnBJhAf8HMDcD5lAiAbYAtQGzNI4GxwjxzEA/AiQEjDYWRk H6LuPxzKM0M0mT44JD8BKSAuVwWwGyAgYDwYgGtnaQhwdUAhgHQAkAEALv1RAT5O5j8RP79AzU9A Qeb3Qt9D7k9ARElAVTE8bz13vDU6FdA+V09ATuZOGtDbG2AJcHYIkAfgWgWwAHDvHLVXIUnmLiBv B5EHQAkA3QfgeQhgR9JNIGEH4DpyFw9AHNMTwQBfUAMAEBAAAAAAAwAREAAAAAADAIAQ/////0AA BzBAgaTqQkC8AUAACDBAgaTqQkC8AQsAAYAIIAYAAAAAAMAAAAAAAABGAAAAAAOFAAAAAAAAAwAF gAggBgAAAAAAwAAAAAAAAEYAAAAAUoUAALcNAAAeAAaACCAGAAAAAADAAAAAAAAARgAAAABUhQAA AQAAAAQAAAA4LjAAAwAHgAggBgAAAAAAwAAAAAAAAEYAAAAAAYUAAAAAAAALABCACCAGAAAAAADA AAAAAAAARgAAAAAOhQAAAAAAAAMAEYAIIAYAAAAAAMAAAAAAAABGAAAAABCFAAAAAAAAAwASgAgg BgAAAAAAwAAAAAAAAEYAAAAAEYUAAAAAAAADABWACCAGAAAAAADAAAAAAAAARgAAAAAYhQAAAAAA AB4AJYAIIAYAAAAAAMAAAAAAAABGAAAAADaFAAABAAAAAQAAAAAAAAAeACaACCAGAAAAAADAAAAA AAAARgAAAAA3hQAAAQAAAAEAAAAAAAAAHgAngAggBgAAAAAAwAAAAAAAAEYAAAAAOIUAAAEAAAAB AAAAAAAAAB4APQABAAAABQAAAFJFOiAAAAAAAwANNP03AABqdw== ------ =_NextPart_000_01BC4000.13EBCF10-- ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "David F. Cameron" Subject: [CANSLIM] Year 2000 Problem Date: 03 Apr 1997 9:39:58 CST I've worked both in private industry and government, and have experience programming. It is my opinion that the year 2000 issue will not be a big problem for private industry because the profit motive is driving a fix now. In our company, we have a programmer assigned f/t to changing the code. However, I have a good friend in the federal government who is a programmer. She says there are a LOT of old programs out there used by their agency which will produce undesirable results on 1/1/2000 if nothing is done. She also states that in her agency - nothing is yet being done. The top brass in the agency are political types - and don't really understand what is going on - or maybe its not much of a priority. But... there is a lot of bureaucracy to go through - and implementation will take longer for many govt. agencies than it will in the private sector. This fact, combined with the fact that it seems many govt. agencies haven't started leades me to believe that the year 2000 issue will be a concern - but mainly in the public sector. For investment purposes I have no idea if this is relevant. IMHO, Dave Cameron ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "derek7422@geocities.com" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] - On Quotes Plus Date: 03 Apr 1997 10:48:00 -0500 > Quotes Plus is a quote program which has a Canslim filtering > capability (albeit a very limited one). I have to disagree here. The canned scan is not all that helpful, but you can customize scans in a very powerful way. Search for new highs, basing periods, moving average crossovers (simple, exponential, and weighted MA), breakouts on high volume, etc., etc. For those that use daily data, QP is an excellent bargain and a very powerful screening tool. Derek ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Robert Gammon" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Rate Hikes Date: 03 Apr 1997 09:50:36 +0500 On Thu, 03 Apr 1997 14:54:59 GMT, Dan Musicant wrote: >I only suggested that a market crash would be likely to bring on a >recession and a possible depression because that was the chain of >events in 1929 and into the 30's. I saw a post (don't know if it was >accurate) a couple of days ago that asserted that someone who suffered >the brunt of the 1929 crash and didn't get out of the market would not >have achieved even status until 1955. This tiresome old saw ASSUMES that you had a FIXED investment of say $50K in 1929, and DIDN'T put ANYTHING into it, not even DIVIDENDS during this entire period. OK, this may be true for those fortunate few whose sole source of income is from their investments. I, and most of the rest of us here, have a job, and make contributions to our investment plan from time to time. We need to see a study to show what happens to THIS sort of investor given the market environment that existing from 1929 through the 1950's. My horizon is greater than 20 years. My belief is that I could suffer through a period like the 30's and 40's, continuing to make contributions and still achieve my retirement goals, although the first few years of retirement migh be a bit rough. *----------------------------------------------------------------------* Robert Gammon My opinions are my own. In no way do rgammon@micro.ti.com I represent the views of my employer Using OS/2 Warp Connect, and a user of every version of OS/2 since v1.0 *----------------------------------------------------------------------* ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: OWENTIME@delphi.com Subject: [CANSLIM] Ants in the pants for novice investors? Date: 03 Apr 1997 11:02:15 -0500 (EST) This market may go over like a lead balloon after this present correction, and fake out expectations of upward momentum for awhile. Until sector shifts are established, it could be more like a picnic in a swamp; complete with mosquitos and alligators. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: perinvm@ibm.net (Gui) Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] - On Quotes Plus Date: 03 Apr 1997 17:55:17 GMT On Thu, 03 Apr 1997 10:48:00 -0500, you wrote: >> Quotes Plus is a quote program which has a Canslim filtering >> capability (albeit a very limited one). > >I have to disagree here. The canned scan is not all that helpful, but >you can customize scans in a very powerful way. Search for new highs, >basing periods, moving average crossovers (simple, exponential, and >weighted MA), breakouts on high volume, etc., etc. > I do agree, Perhaps you'd care to share here some of the scripts on that purpose since to me that is "chinese". Gui ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Craig Griffin Subject: [CANSLIM] WEB Site w/ Charts of Prior Bear/Bull Mkts Date: 03 Apr 1997 19:57:59 -0500 (EST) This web site has nice S&P500 charts of the '29 and '87 crash, '73-74 bear, as well as '83-97 and '95-97 bull mkts. Interesting. Point your browser to http://lowrisk.com/bullbear.htm ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Scott Violet Subject: [CANSLIM] [Not CANSLIM]: Stepping in front of an index (DOW)? Date: 03 Apr 1997 07:20:19 -0800 I seem to remember rks@ticc.com mentioning a 4% average increase in buying a stock after it has been announced that it'll go into the S&P 500 but before it has made it. I wonder if something similiar applies to the DOW as isn't it getting a couple new faces soon? -Scott ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Craig Griffin Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Bears and Spiders Date: 03 Apr 1997 22:26:10 -0500 (EST) Steve, At 12:31 PM 4/2/97 -0800, you wrote: > I know that SPY is a proxy for SP500 and that trading in SPY has no >effect on the SP500, but is it possible that short covering on the way >down could affect the price of the shares and disconnect it from the >index so that it trades at a premium like a closed-end fund? How is it >different from a closed-end fund in that way? What happens when more >want to buy than want to sell at a given price? How can that not affect >the price? > Good questions. I don't know the answer, but I do have a couple of ideas. For the last year SPY has tracked the S&P500 in lockstep. I have Quotes Plus, which allows you to overlay the chart of a second security on the chart currently viewed. When I overlay SPY over !SPX (S&P500 index), they are an exact match, as far as I can tell. Since this is supposed to be an exact proxy for the index, if it got out of step, one could arbitrage the difference. There are probably enough people doing that to keep them in sync. If you contact the AMEX, they will send you a brochure re: SPY. One day does not a trend make. But the markets looked kinda like they wanted to sneak higher in the afternoon today. Might be time for a little rally, depending on tomorrow's employment report and how it is perceived. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Scott Violet Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Ants in the pants for novice investors? Date: 03 Apr 1997 07:11:55 -0800 Hmmm... > This market may go over like a lead balloon after this present > correction, and fake out expectations of upward momentum for > awhile. > Until sector shifts are established, it could be more like a picnic > in a swamp; complete with mosquitos and alligators. If novice investors (myself definately included) do get ants in the pants and start pulling money out of there funds might it be a good idea to short some of investment companies that rely on the capital? Just a though... -Scott ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Brenda" Subject: [CANSLIM] Will the market hold? Date: 03 Apr 1997 22:18:22 -0600 Well, the DOW did drop below 6500 but it held at a plausible range. Meanwhile the NASDAQ showed signs of life. Not a turn around yet, but certainly the first positive signs we have seen in a while. In my humble opinion there are Mutual Fund managers out there who are watching certain stocks and chomping at the bits not to miss a good entry point. For the market to turn around and for them to miss a good entry point on a stock that everybody in their company is aware they are watching might not be too good for them. With that thought in mind I think you will begin seeing some of the standards to be nibbled at. Nibbled I said, not gobbled up. Tonight we looked at ASTSF, GDYS and SRR with "thoughts" of adding to our positions. MLHR did fall some today but not enough to get our "full" attention. Should it drop to say..... 65, we might do something that we do not normally do which is to buy or increase a position in a stock that is not at or near a new high. Oh well, it has been sorta quite so I just wanted to see if this would spark any new comments. Have a good day and let's hope the numbers tomorrow are not such that the market DIVES southward. That would scare me to death. At least bullish sentiment dwindled and bearish sentiment increased. A plus in my mind. If you have a favorite or one that you are "thinking" about I would love to know what it is. Have a good day. James ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Brenda" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Ants in the pants for novice investors? Date: 03 Apr 1997 22:21:51 -0600 Scott, Just a thought but shorting to me has always been tougher than going long. For example, had you shorted HBOC for ALL the right reasons and saw it just UP 5 today alone could you stand the heat? I did read the post earlier about CANSLIM in reverse and think it "might" work "to some degree" in the right conditions. Possibly, the one we are in now. I believe in inertia. However, the market fools most of the people most of the time. It would be just my luck to short a stock and then find out in the morning it had been bought out by ACME plumbing and just doubled. Oh well, good luck to you. James ---------- > From: Scott Violet > To: canslim@mail.xmission.com > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Ants in the pants for novice investors? > Date: Thursday, April 03, 1997 9:11 AM > > Hmmm... > > > This market may go over like a lead balloon after this present > > correction, and fake out expectations of upward momentum for > > awhile. > > > Until sector shifts are established, it could be more like a picnic > > in a swamp; complete with mosquitos and alligators. > > If novice investors (myself definately included) do get ants in the > pants and start pulling money out of there funds might it be a good > idea to short some of investment companies that rely on the > capital? Just a though... > > -Scott ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Transferring an acct Date: 03 Apr 1997 22:00:20 -0500 I think I work in the real world, in truth. As a broker, I changed firms several times over the past nine years, each time moving about two hundred accts. Yes, a few had problems and were delayed in delivery. Since then, over the past two years running the "back office", as I mentioned I have personally handled about 200 or more normal ACATs. In addition, when we changed clearing houses, we had to ACAT the IRA accts (approx 100) plus do a "block ACAT" of about 1000 other accts at 45 a day. Using just the 200 normal tfrs as an example, less than five percent were not fully delivered within ten business days under T+3 and 12 business days under the old T+5. Of the 5% that didn't make it on time, the most common reason for a "reject" was that either the delivering acct nr was not written correctly on the ACAT form, thus not matching, or else the SS# did not match up in all three places (on the ACAT form itself, on the delivering acct, and on the receiving acct). Straightening out these type mistakes usually took a few extra days. If the SS# was in error on one of the accts, then the delay depended on how quickly the client signed and returned a new W9. A fact of life is that the discount houses are often the most difficult to deal with whether they are delivering or receiving. Don't know if it is limited staff or what. The biggest wirehouses are the second worst if they are losing the acct. Suddenly, the client is trash, and they often will try to ignore the tfr request for several days. I know this and stay on top of them, If the acct has not been inventoried on schedule, I am calling my clearing house to call the other side and lean on them. Another common problem with big wirehouses is that the acct often contains "proprietary" (house) products which cannot be transferred. Even when the client has directed that these type assets be sold, often the firm disregards the instruction if they know the acct is tfr'ing out. Then, when the tfr order hits the system, they will take the max delay possible before rejecting the entire tfr due the house products, rather than setting up for tfr what can be sent right away. If smaller firms did what the big houses do, the SEC or NASD would be fining them. But the big houses get away with it with impunity. My "slickest" dirty deal I saw a wirehouse do was to eventually send over most of the assets, but hold back a short and long credit spread using 2 LEAPs on each side. The combined value of the spread was a plus $3000 or so. Then they also held back a stock position worth over $70.000 claiming they needed it to "collateralize" the account, even tho all three positions could have been sent over (remember this was a credit spread, not a debit spread). Coincidentally, the stock position was the largest one in the acct in value. In terms of records, my longest lasting "ACAT" transfer went on for exactly six months, which is why I say don't spend it till it's delivered. However, it was rather complicated involving rolling over an annuity from Scotland valued in pounds. First, all the international paperwork had to be done, and the difference in time zones made this more complicated. Then, when we finally got the annuity liquidated, it was still in pounds even tho the client had requested it be converted into dollars. Next, we had to get permission from the Scottish Revenue Board or some such to remove the money from the country (if you think the US govt is bureaucratic and slow ....!). Finally a check was issued, still in pounds, and sent to NY to our clearing firm. Then they had to send the check to London to be cashed and converted into dollars, and sent back to NY for deposit to the client's acct. Like I said, a little more complicated and unusual than normal. BTW, something many do not know, an ACAT tfr of a tax sheltered acct will always add several days to the normal 8 since the tfr form must be physically delivered to both the receiving and delivering firms (rather than entered on the ACAT computer and transmitted electronically) plus the receiving firm must, as custodian, first "accept" the acct. As far as doing a trade in a new acct at a discount house, I know of none that will allow the trade in advance of "cleared" funds. Even a cashier's check is not considered "cleared" on delivery. Best bet is to wire funds. Frankly, they don't make enough to risk the loss, and since you often don't have a single broker handling your acct, he won't risk his minimum commission percentage of income to extend credit risk. As a full service broker, I routinely extended credit to my new clients. Sure, I got burned a few times, and it cost me a small bundle once or twice. But it is an industry totally based on trust and one's promise. Sorry to be so long winded, but I have heard far too many horror stories about transferring an acct over the years, some true, some not, many had delays caused by the client, but the stories grow till far too many accept them as "normal" and it just ain't so. Been there, done that, I know of what I speak. However, I have also seen brokers losing an acct convince a client that the tfr would go faster if he just sells everything in the acct (thus having one last shot at making commissions) and mails him a check by using these same horror stories. My one piece of advice (actually two) is that if the acct is already in cash and not a tax sheltered acct, just tell the broker to cut you a check and send it (or else wire the funds). If you do this, don't tell the broker you are moving the acct, claim you are buying a house or need the funds temporarily and will send them back in a month or so, or whatever. Yeah, that's right, lie to him, he'll cooperate better than if he knows he's losing a client. However, remember there may be a subsequent interest payment and you will later need to have that sent to you as well (if you tfr'd using an ACAT, it will be on a residual sweep for three months and this would happen automatically). If the acct is partially in cash, you can still have the money sent to you, then start the ACAT, and deposit the cash into the new acct to get started. Hope this helps any of you who transfer in the future get better service at less cost and hassle. tom w ---------- > From: Brenda > To: canslim@mail.xmission.com > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Split info > Date: Thursday, April 03, 1997 9:22 AM > > ---------- > > From: Tom Worley > > To: canslim@mail.xmission.com > > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Split info > > Date: Thursday, April 03, 1997 12:16 AM > > > > > > Hate to say this Tom but your story is wonderful but "in the real world" > it is just not true for all. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Year 2000 Problem Date: 03 Apr 1997 22:29:44 -0500 One thing 17 years in the military taught me is that once a report is created and required, it takes on a life of its own. Years later, the receipients receive the report and file it, not because they need it, or even use it, but because it is required. I managed to eliminate several major monthly, quarterly and annual reports that I had checked out and determined were not being used at all, other than to burn up valuable manhour resources at the field level. pissed off a few people at HQ (not that was anything new for me) because somehow the lack of the report diminished the importance of their job (frankly, without the task of receiving and filing the reports, I think some of them simply didn't HAVE a job). A year 2000 govt disaster may just be our best, and last, shot at downsizing the govt. Of course, a lot of today's govt decision makers may be unemployed in year 2000 (least I hope so). tom w ---------- > From: David F. Cameron > To: canslim@mail.xmission.com > Subject: [CANSLIM] Year 2000 Problem > Date: Thursday, April 03, 1997 10:39 AM > > I've worked both in private industry and government, and have > experience programming. It is my opinion that the year 2000 > issue will not be a big problem for private industry because > > However, I have a good friend in the federal government who > is a programmer. She says there are a LOT of old programs > out there used by their agency which will produce undesirable > results on 1/1/2000 if nothing is done. She also states > that in her agency - nothing is yet being done. The ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Bear-CANSLIM Date: 03 Apr 1997 22:20:44 -0500 Do I gather that WONDA is the online version of NSMI? Any plans to provide maybe a slimmed down version of screening attributes for DG online (frankly 20 or so max would work well for me)? Thanks for the help on printing lines drawn. tom w ---------- Yes the line draw feature made it into the later beta versions. The screening capability is reserved for the WONDA product for now which has a slightly higher price and is currently marketed to institutional investors. WONDA has over 2000 different items on which to screen. (I think it is around 2500 now). To print a screen with line drawings on it you can hit the "Print Screen" key on your keyboard (this will copy the screen into the computer's memory), then open your favorite word processor or graphics program and paste the image, then print. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Crash of '29 Date: 03 Apr 1997 22:39:07 -0500 It's been a lot of years since I looked at the data from that era, but if memory serves me right, seems that someone who held their position thru the '29 crash, didn't take anything out, didn't put anything in, was back to even by the late 30's. I certainly don't recall any data suggesting it taking them until the mid 50's. I entered the brokerage business in Jan '88 when investors were still real bruised and aware of the '87 "crash". Other than those who were highly leveraged with expiring options or low equity margin accounts, most were back even by the end of '88 if they didn't panic out and sell at the lows. One interesting note about that, I knew a broker that did a short term trade on Disney, buying in the midst of the crash, then selling a week later as the mkt recovered. Made a nice profit, but trading volume was so heavy for the systems then employed that when he sold, he still had not received confirmation of his buy and could have been selling shares he never owned without even knowing. Can you imagine today having to wait a week for a report at where you filled on a mkt order??? My brokers would kill me!! tom w ---------- > From: Robert Gammon > To: canslim@mail.xmission.com > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Rate Hikes > Date: Wednesday, April 02, 1997 11:50 PM > > On Thu, 03 Apr 1997 14:54:59 GMT, Dan Musicant wrote: > > > This tiresome old saw ASSUMES that you had a FIXED investment of say > $50K in 1929, and DIDN'T put ANYTHING into it, not even DIVIDENDS > during this entire period. OK, this may be true for those fortunate > few whose sole source of income is from their investments. I, and > most of the rest of us here, have a job, and make contributions to > our investment plan from time to time. We need to see a study to ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Stock Ideas Date: 03 Apr 1997 22:49:15 -0500 As I mentioned in another post, my secret internet source was James (Brenda). He really has some good CANSLIM ideas worth looking at on their own merits. tom w ---------- > From: Steve Shepherd > To: canslim@mail.xmission.com > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Stock Ideas > Date: Thursday, March 27, 1997 3:11 PM > > Hey tom: > How unusual that you'd recommend particular stocks. How did you arrive at > them? Grin ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Year 2000 Date: 03 Apr 1997 22:16:47 -0500 Interesting reading Dan. It reminded me of when I was taking some computer courses to gain a second bachelor's degree, this time in CS, then go for a master's in same (didn't end up doing either) and my instructor (who was the top CS guy on campus) said don't worry about taking the COBOL course, it has no prerequisites nor is it one for any other course. Just pick it up when you have a blank spot on your schedule. After I left the military, I tried to get a job as a programmer and discovered virtually every corp at that time required COBOL skills (I never had that "blank" spot on my schedule. What I did discover was that the academic standards of writing your code and using lots of imbedded narrative so any other programmer could easily pick up where you left off simply wasn't followed. Job security dictated making your code as hard to follow as possible so the company couldn't afford to replace you till you were ready to go. Nice to know the IRS is still so inefficient, but sounds like they need to set up a parallel system capable of handling year 2000, and run it long enough to trust it (and design it such that a monthly program doesn't take three weeks!!!). Sounds like a hacker's delight as it is right now! tom w ---------- Here's more information to mull over. The IRS has a monthly job that takes 3 weeks to run. They know it will fail but they can't fix it. Since it takes 3 weeks to run, they don't have time to rerun it if it fails in conversion. compliant BUT it can take months or years to convert applications to work with new products. Much as if you spent 2-3 years coding up a big dBase II application and suddenly had to convert to Foxpro. A State Farm, Mobil Oil, or GM may have 100 programmers working for 20-30 years on the application system. Where you might code up a Change a table and hundreds of systems fail across the company and in other companies. Change from one product to another and the 100 programmers will have their hands full for years. >OK, fact is I don't know how big a problem it is. But it is true that >anyone forward thinking would have written program code that would not >self destruct in 2k. Anyone who did, didn't expect their code to be >in use in 2k. Anyone with sense in a position to do anything about it They didn't do it on purpose, these are 30 year old systems and new programs that read files produced by 30 year old systems. This problem sneaked up on us. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: [CANSLIM] Market Comments, April 4, 1997 Date: 03 Apr 1997 23:33:08 -0500 Another nasty day on Wall St even with NASDAQ up 1% (Russell 2000 down half a percent and Dow 30 down about the same after even worse showing earlier). New hi/low esp ugly, but a good day for techs. Seems some money decided that the techs are finally oversold (well, duh@!#!). Networking group really benefited, with COMS, CSCO, USRX all up 2 pts or better. Bond mkt continues to show a lack of belief in a May rate hike altho some shift of $$ from equity to safer haven of bonds apparently appearing. Still no real sign of mass exodus from mutual funds. Dollar and gold remain locked in a trading range. Some strong words in Japan over their trade surplus by Rubin and company. Jobs report comes out tomorrow at 8:30AM, concensus seems to be that report will be weaker than forecast (unemployment remaining at 5.3%, new jobs around 200,000). As I did this time last month, I will take a risk and voice my opinion - I think the report will be stronger than forecast, I anticipate new jobs of 250K or better with unemployment dropping to 5.2% or even possibly 5.1% (altho strengh of economy and demand for workers are both contributing to bring many more back into the job hunting mode that were not being "counted" as among the unemployed, thus this nr may succeed temporarily in staying at 5.3%. Latest report on continuing claims for unemployment insurance are at a seven year plus low. If I'm right, timing could be terrible, as this report has been a major mkt mover in past and, in coming on a Friday when the traders don't like to hold a position thru a weekend, could give us an explosive selloff. Might be just the "blowoff top" that we need however, as I consider the mkt to be measurably oversold, esp for the tech groups. Economic reports continue to show faster growth than I think the Feds anticipated. I maintain my "probable" for a May hike of 25 BP, and a "possible" for 50 BP. Will revise this after I see the jobs nr. If I am right, bond mkt due for a fairly sharp correction downward. Only thing so far arguing against another quick hike is the lack of commentary from the Feds. Continuing claims for unemployment compensation are at a 7 yr low. Housing completions were up strongly at plus 10.8%, highest nr in 13 months. January's decline in the same report was revised upward nearly one and a half percent. The "50% clipjoint stock du jour" for tomorrow is Checkpoint Systems (CKP). Announced today that their merger deal was cancelled, which prompted the arbitragers to rush in and buy (they had bot the acquiring co and short sold CKP in anticipation of the deal being completed). Then, after the close, the co also mentioned they expect to report 7 cents a share vs expectation of 16, stock quickly started trading at $10, down $6. Hadco (HDCO) looked strong today, anyone heard any word on when the secondary will be priced? Techs clearly led today, most other groups, including financials, were weak. Even IBM continued its fall from grace on earnings forecast cuts, but seemed pretty lonely in the tech groups. It's a case of "C"'s, correction, consolidation, or crash. I vote for consolidation now (vs correction a week or so ago). here's watching for the jobs report tomorrow. tom w ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] [Not CANSLIM]: Stepping in front of an index (DOW)? Date: 03 Apr 1997 23:45:40 -0500 Too late, already happened about two weeks ago, four were added, most to add that many at one time. One was a tech, forget which one just now, which increased the Dow's exposure there at a bad time. Another was Kodak, which then promptly sold off about 9 pts or so on a bad earnings preannouncement. Besides, don't think it would work that way since can't think of any funds that try to mimic the Dow 30. Most "index" funds are trying to parallel the S&P 100 or 500. tom w ---------- > From: Scott Violet > To: canslim@mail.xmission.com > Subject: [CANSLIM] [Not CANSLIM]: Stepping in front of an index (DOW)? > Date: Thursday, April 03, 1997 10:20 AM > I wonder if something similiar > applies to the DOW as isn't it getting a couple new faces soon? > > -Scott ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: GoldFish Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Will the market hold? (SRR) Date: 04 Apr 1997 00:36:27 -0800 Brenda wrote: > > Well, the DOW did drop below 6500 but it held at a plausible range. > Meanwhile the NASDAQ showed signs of life. Not a turn around yet, but clip.. > we looked at ASTSF, GDYS and SRR with "thoughts" of adding to our clip.. > James Hi James: I did a little bit of checking on SRR. According to company 3/25 news release, it has good news: 1)increase 11% of first quarter sale from $118.9 millions to $131.8 millions. (11% increase in sale is no big deal compare with CSCO,COMS!) 2)earning has been tripled from $0.03 to $0.08 per share. However, the price of the share has increased from $7(july 96) to $15 3/8 (present) with P/E=147.50 (outrageous!), P/S=1.7(reasonable!), no long term debt(good!), inventory is dropping(good!), profit margin is dropping(bad!), net sale has been dropping for the past five years(very bad!), has 57.3 million of cash(good!). Fundamentally, it is not a good investment, although it is showing turn around based on a single New product, and yet the chart is going up. I believe it is a speculative and momentum driven play. Personally, I will not touch this stock, although it may fit 2 aspects of the CaNslim, C for current earning; N for new products! Sincerely, Haw-Jye Shyu ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Brenda" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Will the market hold? (SRR) Date: 03 Apr 1997 23:41:06 -0600 I notice that you still include PE in your analysis. As a CANSLIM follower how do you justify Mr. O'Neil's statements in his book about how WORTHLESS PE numbers are. He seems to me to be very, very plain about it. I appreciate your information and I use information from lots of different sources. Thanks for the time you took. Still interested about at what level "in your mind" does a PE matter or not matter. Tom? How about you? Does the PE matter? If so, what is acceptable? James ---------- > From: GoldFish > To: canslim@mail.xmission.com > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Will the market hold? (SRR) > Date: Friday, April 04, 1997 2:36 AM > > Brenda wrote: > > > > Well, the DOW did drop below 6500 but it held at a plausible range. > > Meanwhile the NASDAQ showed signs of life. Not a turn around yet, but > clip.. > > we looked at ASTSF, GDYS and SRR with "thoughts" of adding to our > clip.. > > James > > Hi James: > > I did a little bit of checking on SRR. According to company 3/25 news > release, it has good news: > 1)increase 11% of first quarter sale from $118.9 millions to $131.8 > millions. (11% increase in sale is no big deal compare with CSCO,COMS!) > 2)earning has been tripled from $0.03 to $0.08 per share. > > However, the price of the share has increased from $7(july 96) to $15 > 3/8 (present) with P/E=147.50 (outrageous!), P/S=1.7(reasonable!), > no long term debt(good!), inventory is dropping(good!), profit margin is > dropping(bad!), net sale has been dropping for the past five years(very > bad!), has 57.3 million of cash(good!). Fundamentally, it is not a good > investment, although it is showing turn around based on a single New > product, and yet the chart is going up. I believe it is a speculative > and momentum driven play. Personally, I will not touch this stock, > although it may fit 2 aspects of the CaNslim, C for current earning; N > for new products! > > Sincerely, > > Haw-Jye Shyu ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: ladypi Subject: [CANSLIM] company names? Date: 03 Apr 1997 22:55:35 -0800 In reference to the list for April 3rd: I've just started viewing the CANSLIM list and in my attempt to learn I am having some difficulty as when stocks are mentioned only the symbol is given.I wanted to look up the ones to which Gui made reference and would like to ask if the full company names could be given?Could Gui have time to do that?Also if all in the group could do this on a regular basis we who are learning would be grateful. Gui mentioned: BSNX;CEBC;CGNE;MK;NDN;SNM;SVM;TCNJ. Also if as few abbreviations as possible could be used that would also assist.I realize that may be a drag for the pros on the list,however, for the learner or student of this it would really be great. Thanks for your assistance. -- Judy North e-mail: ladypi@teleport.com ladypi@hotmail.com jnorth@teleport.com FREE LANCE INVESTIGATIONS of Portland 12175 SW 2nd Ave. Beaverton, Oregon 97005 503-643-4274 (4API)(phone) 503-643-5474 (fax) *1-888-4ladypi* http://www.teleport.com/~jnorth/index.html Located in the city of roses, Portland, Oregon. The Pacific Northwest source for information and investigation. On-line data resources, global contacts. Criminal/employment background checks; process serving; all around investigations ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Michael A Langston Subject: re: [CANSLIM] company names? Date: 04 Apr 1997 01:28:37 -0500 judy north writes: > I am having some difficulty as when stocks are mentioned > only the symbol...would like to ask if the full company > names could be given? i believe i understand your frustration judy, but i also suspect you'll find that many will ignore such a request -- after a while, many experienced traders actually begin to *think* in terms of symbols only -- besides, symbols only is clearly the norm in all the forums i know/use, despite requests such as yours that arise from time to time > for the learner or student of this it would really be great. i dunno, the learner might better benefit by simply keeping a browser at hand to pop up names as they're needed (there are loads of free sites available) until (s)he becomes more familiar with the usual HGS suspects FWIW, here's my preference for stock references (when canslim is working that is): SYMBOL E R G acc-dist -- for example, since i keep an eye on monsanto, i'd say MTC 80 60 37 C (crappy huh) so, in a good market, one might hope to see an alert from another group member of a form such as: XYZ 95 97 93 A, b/o of [30,34] box on 3 x normal translation: stock XYZ, w/ an eps rank of 95, a relative strength of 97 and a group strength of 93 is breaking to the upside out of a darvis box (price has been bouncing between 30 and 34 for weeks or longer) on 3 times its normal daily volume strictly my two cents mike ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Michael A Langston Subject: re: [CANSLIM] Will the market hold? (SRR) Date: 04 Apr 1997 01:37:34 -0500 brenda-james asks: > As a CANSLIM follower how do you justify Mr. O'Neil's statements > in his book about how WORTHLESS PE numbers are. a coupla comments: 1) o'neil relegates pe's to at most a low order statistic, but only in the context of a market that favors HGS 2) when a high pe stock breaks, it can be a helluva lot uglier than when a value stock breaks 3) many people (even the @#$%&*ing motley dweebs) have reinvented and popularized the old PEG model in recent years, a model that is pretty unkind to many high PE stox -- and when enuf people believe in a model, it can become rather self-fulfilling thus one ignores multiples at one's peril, particularly in a choppy or nervous market -- JMHO, natch mike ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: perinvm@ibm.net (Gui Meyen) Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] company names? Date: 04 Apr 1997 11:53:15 GMT On Thu, 03 Apr 1997 22:55:35 -0800, you wrote: >In reference to the list for April 3rd: I've just started viewing the >CANSLIM list and in my attempt to learn I am having some difficulty as >when stocks are mentioned only the symbol is given.I wanted to look up >the ones to which Gui made reference and would like to ask if the full >company names could be given?Could Gui have time to do that?Also if all >in the group could do this on a regular basis we who are learning would >be grateful.=20 >Gui mentioned: BSNX;CEBC;CGNE;MK;NDN;SNM;SVM;TCNJ. >Also if as few abbreviations as possible could be used that would also >assist.I realize that may be a drag for the pros on the list,however, >for the learner or student of this it would really be great. >Thanks for your assistance. >--=20 >Judy North=20 >e-mail: ladypi@teleport.com > ladypi@hotmail.com =20 > jnorth@teleport.com > >FREE LANCE INVESTIGATIONS >of Portland >12175 SW 2nd Ave. >Beaverton, Oregon 97005 >503-643-4274 (4API)(phone) >503-643-5474 (fax)=09 >*1-888-4ladypi* >http://www.teleport.com/~jnorth/index.html > >Located in the city of roses, Portland, Oregon.=20 >The Pacific Northwest source for information and >investigation. On-line data resources, global contacts. >Criminal/employment background checks; process serving; >all around investigations > I'm afraid I have the same problem as yourself, used to complain about it also. I don't know the names of the Co.s I wrote myself, would have to look them up. I just copied and pasted the symbols here. What I did in the end was getting the prog. QuotesPlus which allows you to search for names or symbols. Gui. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Will the market hold? (SRR) Date: 04 Apr 1997 06:47:45 -0500 What O'Neill said is that "trailing" PE is worthless, and unfortunately that is what is used all too often, since it is already history, and you can't make money on history. On the other hand, projected PE is very important to Mr. O'Neill and should be used here. However, that said, just because it isn't important to Mr. O'Neill, it is still important to many investors, even fund managers, even those using CANSLIM. Why, because regardless of projected PE, a high (trailing) PE stock will tend to get hit harder in a downdraft, and often can take several qtrs to recover even with rapidly accelerating earnings. I usually look at both. tom w ---------- > From: Brenda > To: canslim@mail.xmission.com > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Will the market hold? (SRR) > Date: Friday, April 04, 1997 12:41 AM > > I notice that you still include PE in your analysis. As a CANSLIM follower > how do you justify Mr. O'Neil's statements in his book about how WORTHLESS > PE numbers are. He seems to me to be very, very plain about it. I > Tom? How about you? Does the PE matter? If so, what is acceptable? > James > > ---------- > > From: GoldFish > > To: canslim@mail.xmission.com > > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Will the market hold? (SRR) > > Date: Friday, April 04, 1997 2:36 AM > > > > Brenda wrote: > > > > > However, the price of the share has increased from $7(july 96) to $15 > > 3/8 (present) with P/E=147.50 (outrageous!), P/S=1.7(reasonable!), > > Haw-Jye Shyu ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] company names? Date: 04 Apr 1997 06:52:55 -0500 Second time this request has been made here, I'll try to do a little better, altho it's tough for me to not use abbreviations and acronyms. Feel free to ask if you don't understand, I don't mind responding. Also there are many sites where you can enter the symbol and get the name, my favorite is www.nasdaq.com, altho obviously this won't help for a NYSE or AMEX listing. tom w ---------- > From: ladypi > To: canslim@mail.xmission.com > Subject: [CANSLIM] company names? > Date: Friday, April 04, 1997 1:55 AM > > when stocks are mentioned only the symbol is given.I wanted to look up > the ones to which Gui made reference and would like to ask if the full > company names could be given?Could Gui have time to do that?Also if all > Also if as few abbreviations as possible could be used that would also > assist. > Judy North ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: pwahl@postoffice.worldnet.att.net Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Will the market hold? (SRR) Date: 04 Apr 1997 06:27:21 -0800 > From: "Brenda" > I notice that you still include PE in your analysis. As a CANSLIM follower > how do you justify Mr. O'Neil's statements in his book about how WORTHLESS > PE numbers are. He seems to me to be very, very plain about it. I > appreciate your information and I use information from lots of different > sources. Thanks for the time you took. Still interested about at what level > "in your mind" does a PE matter or not matter. I think it does, and I think that the high PE of practicallly every high tech stock I know of is why the NASDAQ is down 12% while the Dow is down 8%. OF course, the tech stuff is down even more than 12% on average. A PE should have some relationship to growth. Always seems to me that when PE's get into the 100 range, the stock has anticipated a lot of growth and it gets harder to make money in the high PE stocks. David Ryan mentions in an interview in "Market Wizards" that he thought that high PE stocks do not perform as well as those with lower PE's. Bonds up again today on an ok unemployment number, so expect market to continue down. Patrick Wahl ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: PPNewell@aol.com Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Will the market hold? (SRR) (PE's) Date: 04 Apr 1997 09:49:25 -0500 (EST) <> I beleive he means after a recession look at the IBD info for five years. After re-reading his passage and listening to David Ryan I beleive he was saying this isn't value investing where you look for pe's less than 10 but that 30-100(after a recession, not today but at the start of a bull market are okay). Ryan said a market multiple * 1.5 is safe but higher pe's require absolute perfection. My take is this: after a recession, like 1992 all the stocks were at a pe of 40 according to IBD, so with any earnings pickup the PE ratio's of 100 are okay. That's not todays enviroment we have been expanding a company with a pe of hundred has to 8x its earnings and then your even unless the growth continues. Question, which is better a company with a pe of 12 and an expected growth rate 40 percent or a company with a pe of 12 and an expected growth rate of 12 percent. All things being even I pick company 1. Any comments? Peter Newell ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: PPNewell@aol.com Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Crash of '29 Date: 04 Apr 1997 10:04:05 -0500 (EST) There was also only a 10% margin requirement in 1929 which allowed investors to use $10 for every $1 invested and margin calls caused massive selling. Also, what was the PE ratio and a real recession was coming. I don't beleive we have a recession coming due to the fact that our technology is needed so badly in the rest of the world, however, I could be a year or two ahead of myself. Another factor is that information is so quickly available that corrections appear to happen quickly. I see a 1929/87 scenario more towards 200x when the market has been exploding for years a people invest with abandon especially for retirement. Peter Newell ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: PPNewell@aol.com Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Will the market hold? (SRR) Date: 04 Apr 1997 10:09:32 -0500 (EST) In a message dated 97-04-04 03:07:42 EST, you write: << many people (even the @#$%&*ing motley dweebs) have reinvented and popularized the old PEG model in recent years, a model that is pretty unkind to many high PE stox -- and when enuf people believe in a model, it can become rather self-fulfilling >> I'm not a motley fan either their buy and die philsophy is crazy. They must be making good money on hats. Motley would be doing really good if they sold their winners Peter Newell ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: jeff@scrooge.idec.sdl.usu.edu (Jeff Salisbury) Subject: [CANSLIM] Possible CANSLIM candidates Date: 04 Apr 1997 08:40:38 -0600 --- Forwarded mail from owner-canslim@xmission.com X-Mailer: Mozilla 3.0C-GZone (Win95; I) MIME-Version: 1.0 References: <01BC3FFD.11F64800@DIGITALIS> Content-Type: text/plain; charset=us-ascii Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit I Subscribe to the TELESCAN service and as of yet have not been able to locate the Holy Grail with it (and probably never will). Unfortunately it has a few limitations, one of which is the inability to automatically scan for chart patterns. I have found an approximate correlation between certain Stochastics ratios and positive chart patterns. I also have it scan for stocks with the various CANSLIM criteria. I ran the search last night and the following stocks APPEAR to have pretty good charts. I have not yet ran the full analysis, but maybe someone else would like to provide us with more detailed info or opinions. GLBL,HB,FISV,RHCI,BKS,KAB,WAC,MAS,AAON,AVN,AMN,OS,CNS,FINL,BERT ---End of forwarded mail from owner-canslim@xmission.com ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Joseph Vaughn-Perling Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] company names? Date: 04 Apr 1997 09:24:20 -0800 ------ =_NextPart_000_01BC40D9.FA9F5C40 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="us-ascii" Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit What Judy et.al. would really benefit from is a FAQ + glossary. Anyone with time to kill to compile one? -----Original Message----- Sent: Thursday, April 03, 1997 10:29 PM judy north writes: > I am having some difficulty as when stocks are mentioned > only the symbol...would like to ask if the full company > names could be given? x---snip---x FWIW, here's my preference for stock references (when canslim is working that is): SYMBOL E R G acc-dist -- for example, since i keep an eye on monsanto, i'd say MTC 80 60 37 C (crappy huh) so, in a good market, one might hope to see an alert from another group member of a form such as: XYZ 95 97 93 A, b/o of [30,34] box on 3 x normal translation: stock XYZ, w/ an eps rank of 95, a relative strength of 97 and a group strength of 93 is breaking to the upside out of a darvis box (price has been bouncing between 30 and 34 for weeks or longer) on 3 times its normal daily volume strictly my two cents mike ------ =_NextPart_000_01BC40D9.FA9F5C40 Content-Type: application/ms-tnef Content-Transfer-Encoding: base64 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Netscape brower.Can anyone tell me how to uncode these Base 64 messages? Thanks ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Will the market hold? (SRR) Date: 04 Apr 1997 19:33:02 -0500 Correction: bonds were down throughout the day, closing down 23 ticks (32's), which in the good ole days of predictable mkts would have meant the stock mkt would also be down (and it was for a few minutes, actually couple of hours). In fact, the Dow 30 broke the first circuit breaker 10 minutes into the open down over 50 pts. But by late afternoon, it was threatening to break it again, this time up 50. And this despite IBM continuing to lose ground amidst more analyst's cuts on earnings forecasts. Pretty impressive show by the techs today, driving NASDAQ up nearly 2% (up 23 pts). Hadn't heard that Ryan thought that way, maybe that's why he was too much in cash at critical points, and overall New USA Fund didn't perform like many expected. tom w ---------- > From: pwahl@postoffice.worldnet.att.net > To: canslim@mail.xmission.com > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Will the market hold? (SRR) > Date: Friday, April 04, 1997 9:27 AM > > > From: "Brenda" > > > sources. Thanks for the time you took. Still interested about at what level > > "in your mind" does a PE matter or not matter. > > I think it does, and I think that the high PE of practicallly every > high tech stock I know of is why the NASDAQ is down 12% while the Dow > is down 8%. OF course, the tech stuff is down even more than 12% on > average. A PE should have some relationship to growth. Always seems > high PE stocks. David Ryan mentions in an interview in "Market > Wizards" that he thought that high PE stocks do not perform as well > as those with lower PE's. > > ------------------------------------------------------------ > > Bonds up again today on an ok unemployment number, so expect market > to continue down. > Patrick Wahl ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] company names? Date: 04 Apr 1997 19:52:45 -0500 Would think there would be a way of periodically downloading a list of all companies cross indexed by both symbol and name (and industry as well would be nice) and storing it either in the archives somewhere where it would be easily accessible or making it available for download and storing locally for those who want/need it? tom w ---------- > From: Joseph Vaughn-Perling > To: 'canslim@mail.xmission.com' > Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] company names? > Date: Friday, April 04, 1997 12:24 PM > > What Judy et.al. would really benefit from is a FAQ + glossary. Anyone with time to kill to compile one? > ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Base 64 Date: 04 Apr 1997 20:05:50 -0500 Hi Bob, Not sure why you are getting encoded msgs, I don't even think I have a Base64 decoder installed, and have never received a coded msg from this group. Are you sure the problem isn't at your end? BTW, by any chance did you go to CGA graduating 1969? Hope someone has a solution for you, I know it would drive me crazy not knowing what I might be missing. I have been using Netscape 2.0, 3.0, and 3.01 plus now use InternetExplorer (3.01 I think, whatever is latest, which I far prefer to Netscape) since joining this group, if that helps any. tom w ---------- > From: Bob Acker > To: canslim@xmission.com > Subject: [CANSLIM] Base 64 > Date: Friday, April 04, 1997 2:38 AM > > I'm receiving E-mail messages from this canslim group that are > encoded in Base 64.I have Netscape Windows 95 3.01 browser.I use ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: musicant@autobahn.org (Dan Musicant) Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] company names? Date: 05 Apr 1997 03:47:10 GMT On Fri, 4 Apr 1997 19:52:45 -0500, you wrote: :Would think there would be a way of periodically downloading a list of :all companies cross indexed by both symbol and name (and industry as :well would be nice) and storing it either in the archives somewhere :where it would be easily accessible or making it available for download :and storing locally for those who want/need it? : :tom w Yes, it would be called a "database." What you describe would be a not too big file and is undoubtedly available. If I find one I'll either post about it or attach it to a post. Dan ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: musicant@autobahn.org (Dan Musicant) Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Ticker Symbols Date: 05 Apr 1997 04:00:06 GMT On Thu, 3 Apr 1997 07:10:31 -0500 (EST), you wrote: :For the benefit of people like me who are unable to identify each = company by :it's ticker symbol, it would be nice if companies could be identified by= name :rather than just a ticker symbol.=20 : :I can't look up a stock in Investors' Business Daily or The Wall Street :Journal or even in Daily Graphs using a ticker symbol; the listings are :arranged alphabetically by name. : :For example: "Filene's Basement (BSMT) has opened a lot of stores = lately. :BSMT is a stock to watch carefully." : :In this way we won't be looking for BSMT in the listings under "B" = rather :than "F." : :Douglas Herman I have not found this a major inconvenience. You obviously have access to a computer. There are many websites where you can enter the symbol and you will get information. If you are interested in a stock you will want to do on-line research about it anyway. I have accumulated about 30 stock related bookmarks in my browser in just four months or so, and a great many of these are capable of yielding this sort of information quickly.=20 Here's one touted research site: Wall St. Research http://www.wsrn.com/home/companyResearch.html Go there is a split second and you have an option to search on symbol or company name. Bookmark it, open a 2nd browser and keep it handy. Regards, Dan ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Brenda" Subject: [CANSLIM] Hurrah - A "small" breather Date: 05 Apr 1997 01:30:04 -0600 Tonight I have just finished grading ALL stocks on ALL markets. We have come up with six stocks that graded out 95 or better. SIX out of........ ( a bunch!). Well, would be most interested in you CANSLIM'rs opinion on them. See if you think any are worthy. Here goes: MLHR, GDYS, PSUN, ASTSF, TUES & SRR. I realize we have discussed some of these but today is a new day. I mean the markets actually performed like they would "like to" stop the decline. Only time will tell. I am not "excited" about what my crystal ball tells me, but at least it is not totally BLACK right now. There is a "glimmer" of hope. Well, let me know if you like any of these. Thanks! James ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] company names? Date: 05 Apr 1997 09:16:49 -0500 Thanks Dan, could be a help to those who haven't lived and breathed this business for so many years to the point that we think in symbols instead of names. tom w ---------- too big file and is undoubtedly available. If I find one I'll either post about it or attach it to a post. Dan ---------- ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Rick Miller" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Hurrah - A "small" breather Date: 05 Apr 1997 08:50:10 -0600 I don't know how you selected them, but let me suggest that you keep track of them and give a performance report monthly over the next 12 months and compare their performance to the S&P 500's performance, or any other so called expert's method of stock picking. This is the only way that you can find a reliable method of stock picking- that is to test and test and test until you find a method that works consistently(7-8 times out of ten). Maybe you can post the results over this site or at least let me know what you find. I have tested the canslim method and have not found it to be very reliable. I am constantly testing. Testing becomes easier when you can find a site that does "portfolios" , such as dbc, which keeps track of your stocks daily and shows the percent increases or decreases over time, and it's free. There are other sites out there that do the same thing and can be used when you run out of space on dbc. Good Luck and test, test, test to keep from guess, guess, guess. Rick Miller ---------- > From: Brenda > To: canslim > Subject: [CANSLIM] Hurrah - A "small" breather > Date: Saturday, April 05, 1997 1:30 AM > > Tonight I have just finished grading ALL stocks on ALL markets. We have > come up with six stocks that graded out 95 or better. SIX out of........ ( > a bunch!). Well, would be most interested in you CANSLIM'rs opinion on > them. See if you think any are worthy. Here goes: MLHR, GDYS, PSUN, ASTSF, > TUES & SRR. I realize we have discussed some of these but today is a new > day. I mean the markets actually performed like they would "like to" stop > the decline. Only time will tell. I am not "excited" about what my crystal > ball tells me, but at least it is not totally BLACK right now. There is a > "glimmer" of hope. Well, let me know if you like any of these. Thanks! > James ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Hurrah - A "small" breather Date: 05 Apr 1997 09:58:05 -0500 Rick, Not sure why you have found CANSLIM to be unreliable, but I have been using it for over five years, and found it to be far and away the best "philosophy" there is so long as I follow the rules. When I don't, I usually find I made a bad decision. If you don't like O'Neill's CANSLIM approach, keep in mind that this is a CANSLIM group, therefore the vast majority of stocks that will be suggested are likely to be CANSLIM based. good luck tom w ---------- > From: Rick Miller > To: canslim@mail.xmission.com > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Hurrah - A "small" breather > Date: Saturday, April 05, 1997 9:50 AM > > I don't know how you selected them, but let me suggest that you keep track > of them and give a performance report monthly over the next 12 months and > you find. I have tested the canslim method and have not found it to be > very reliable. I am constantly testing. Testing becomes easier when you ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Brenda" Subject: [CANSLIM] Rick-Canslim no workee? Date: 05 Apr 1997 11:03:16 -0600 Rick, I read your post and it sounds like you either do not know, understand or fully understand how to use CANSLIM. Have you read Mr. O'Neil's book How To Make Money In Stocks? How many times? Twice? Not near enough. I am constantly reading and studying and almost invariably pick up a different investment book each time I am in the library. I have found his system to be the best single system in print by far over anything I have ever found. Have you tried the Dow Dogs, the Motely Fools four or five different methods. I think after you have tried several other system, AFTER FIRST knowing and understanding them you will find yourself coming back to CANSLIM. I find Mr. O'Neil to be in the very, very small minority with many of his practices and philosophies. One easy one is buying stocks breaking into new high ground and not ones that "just can't" go down any more. Once, you understand his system, FULLY and completely and have tracked it "on paper" for a YEAR and think you probably know it just about as well as Mr. O'Neil itself (although most likely incorrect), then and only then can you make assessments about how it works. Yes, I do add a twist or two of my personal own BUT if could only use ONE recognized and known system the CANSLIM method would win by so far that number two would be so distant who cares what it is. I do and have tracked meticuosly since 1990 keeping ridiculously detailed records. Thank heavens I no longer have to do much of that. It does still work but never forget one of his words of wisdom contianed in the book. When the direction of the market is down, 3 out of 4 of your stocks will slump with the market, AND YOU WILL LOSE MONEY. I find those on this network do a LOT of research and work. I call it homework. Without an investor doing a GREAT DEAL of homework I do not think he needs to be in the market. Not that you don't but I find most that I talk to ONLY THINK they do a lot of homework. I spend 15-18 hours a day working in the market and definetley do not think I am the only one in this group that does that. Lots of luck! Luck has never been part of the formula for me but many use just that. James ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Rick Miller" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Rick-Canslim no workee? Date: 05 Apr 1997 12:05:24 -0600 Dear James: It sounds like you believe (worship) strongly in canslim and have had remarkable results. What are your results? You don't have to tell me how much you have made in dollars, but what has been your annual return on all stocks purchased using canslim? James, I challenge you to select 10 stocks over the weekend using canslim and let's compare the performance of those ten stocks to the S&P 500's performance and see if you can beat the S&P 500. We will select the closing prices (as of Friday, April 4) of the ten stocks you pick and compare the performance (in percentage increase or decrease) on a weekly (or other if you prefer) basis. The S&P 500 closed Friday at 757.90. In fact, I challenge any canslimer to pick ten stocks and prove to me it can beat the S&P 500 over the period of your choice. You must also show me how each stock selected meets the canslim requirement. Let's have some fun! Rick Miller ---------- > From: Brenda > To: canslim > Subject: [CANSLIM] Rick-Canslim no workee? > Date: Saturday, April 05, 1997 11:03 AM > > Rick, > I read your post and it sounds like you either do not know, understand > or fully understand how to use CANSLIM. Have you read Mr. O'Neil's book How > To Make Money In Stocks? How many times? Twice? Not near enough. I am > constantly reading and studying and almost invariably pick up a different > investment book each time I am in the library. I have found his system to > be the best single system in print by far over anything I have ever found. > Have you tried the Dow Dogs, the Motely Fools four or five different > methods. I think after you have tried several other system, AFTER FIRST > knowing and understanding them you will find yourself coming back to > CANSLIM. I find Mr. O'Neil to be in the very, very small minority with many > of his practices and philosophies. One easy one is buying stocks breaking > into new high ground and not ones that "just can't" go down any more. Once, > you understand his system, FULLY and completely and have tracked it "on > paper" for a YEAR and think you probably know it just about as well as Mr. > O'Neil itself (although most likely incorrect), then and only then can you > make assessments about how it works. > Yes, I do add a twist or two of my personal own BUT if could only use > ONE recognized and known system the CANSLIM method would win by so far that > number two would be so distant who cares what it is. I do and have tracked > meticuosly since 1990 keeping ridiculously detailed records. Thank heavens > I no longer have to do much of that. It does still work but never forget > one of his words of wisdom contianed in the book. When the direction of the > market is down, 3 out of 4 of your stocks will slump with the market, AND > YOU WILL LOSE MONEY. I find those on this network do a LOT of research and > work. I call it homework. Without an investor doing a GREAT DEAL of > homework I do not think he needs to be in the market. Not that you don't > but I find most that I talk to ONLY THINK they do a lot of homework. I > spend 15-18 hours a day working in the market and definetley do not think I > am the only one in this group that does that. > Lots of luck! Luck has never been part of the formula for me but many > use just that. > James > > > > > > > > ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Rick Miller" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Rick-Canslim no workee? Date: 05 Apr 1997 12:30:48 -0600 James: If ten stocks are too many, just pick 5. I'll bet that I can beat those 5 stocks using two methods I have found successful: 1. Gut Feeling 2. Volume study Just for fun, I can select three groups: 1.5 stocks based on my gut feeling 2.5 more stocks based on my gut feeling 3.5 more stocks based on a volume study I've been doing You select any 5 stocks that meet your revered canslim and we'll watch them over the next few months and I'll bet my stocks do better than yours. Rick Miller ---------- > From: Brenda > To: canslim > Subject: [CANSLIM] Rick-Canslim no workee? > Date: Saturday, April 05, 1997 11:03 AM > > Rick, > I read your post and it sounds like you either do not know, understand > or fully understand how to use CANSLIM. Have you read Mr. O'Neil's book How > To Make Money In Stocks? How many times? Twice? Not near enough. I am > constantly reading and studying and almost invariably pick up a different > investment book each time I am in the library. I have found his system to > be the best single system in print by far over anything I have ever found. > Have you tried the Dow Dogs, the Motely Fools four or five different > methods. I think after you have tried several other system, AFTER FIRST > knowing and understanding them you will find yourself coming back to > CANSLIM. I find Mr. O'Neil to be in the very, very small minority with many > of his practices and philosophies. One easy one is buying stocks breaking > into new high ground and not ones that "just can't" go down any more. Once, > you understand his system, FULLY and completely and have tracked it "on > paper" for a YEAR and think you probably know it just about as well as Mr. > O'Neil itself (although most likely incorrect), then and only then can you > make assessments about how it works. > Yes, I do add a twist or two of my personal own BUT if could only use > ONE recognized and known system the CANSLIM method would win by so far that > number two would be so distant who cares what it is. I do and have tracked > meticuosly since 1990 keeping ridiculously detailed records. Thank heavens > I no longer have to do much of that. It does still work but never forget > one of his words of wisdom contianed in the book. When the direction of the > market is down, 3 out of 4 of your stocks will slump with the market, AND > YOU WILL LOSE MONEY. I find those on this network do a LOT of research and > work. I call it homework. Without an investor doing a GREAT DEAL of > homework I do not think he needs to be in the market. Not that you don't > but I find most that I talk to ONLY THINK they do a lot of homework. I > spend 15-18 hours a day working in the market and definetley do not think I > am the only one in this group that does that. > Lots of luck! Luck has never been part of the formula for me but many > use just that. > James > > > > > > > > ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: musicant@autobahn.org (Dan Musicant) Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Rick-Canslim no workee? Date: 05 Apr 1997 19:02:40 GMT CANSLIM is a method of stock investment. It does not lend itself to contests such a Rick suggests. I am far from an expert, but from what I have read it seems to me that this contest (such as it is proposed) violates the spirit and substance of O'Neil's methods. One does not use CANSLIM to select 10 stocks and see how they compare to an index over a given period. Rick is showing a lack of understanding of what CANSLIM is by virtue of his proposal.=20 =46irstly, CANSLIM specifies the utmost care in determining the entry point for a position. Timing is negated in the proposal. Secondly, CANSLIM is also at least equally predicated on proper timing for selling a stock. Back to square one. Dan ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: musicant@autobahn.org (Dan Musicant) Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] company names? Date: 05 Apr 1997 19:15:29 GMT I haven't (yet) found a downloadable .dbf file of Symbols/Company Names/Group/etc., but I found a site with hypertext links the a large swarm of websites for investment research: http://pw1.netcom.com/~regnery/uscorp.html Dan On Sat, 5 Apr 1997 09:16:49 -0500, you wrote: :Thanks Dan, could be a help to those who haven't lived and breathed :this business for so many years to the point that we think in symbols :instead of names. : :tom w :---------- :From: Dan Musicant :To: canslim@mail.xmission.com :Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] company names?=20 :Date: Friday, April 04, 1997 10:47 PM : :too big file and is undoubtedly available. If I find one I'll either :post about it or attach it to a post. : :Dan :---------- ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Rick Miller" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Rick-Canslim no workee? Date: 05 Apr 1997 14:09:18 -0600 No, canslim does not lend itself to contests, I agree. But you invest to make money, don't you? All I am saying is that there might be, just might be other methods that work better than canslim. (Sorry for the blasphemy canslimmers) What other way than to test one method against another to find out which one works best time after time? If you have a problem with timing, you tell me when you want to pick your 5 stocks and I'll be ready on the same day to select ones using my methods. Since O'Neil recommends holding on to a stock for at least 8 weeks unless the stop-loss is reached, we can at least compare the performance for that period of time without too many hassles I presume. If you need to sell, OK, I'll sell one of mine too and when you buy, I'll buy another one. I'll even keep track of the stocks and report on them weekly so you won't have to do any work. Dan, all I'm trying to do is find what is true and what is hype. I have not come down one way or the other as far as canslim is concerned. In fact, I'm open to adhering to it faithfully forever if it indeed works. Now, either it works (pure canslim) most of the time and works better than any other method most of the time or it doesn't! Finding this out does not take a rocket scientist. One can and should test and compare any method that presumably works to ensure maximum profits. To be so inflexible as to not even consider that one's method may be flawed is simply, well, stupid. Dan, if I told you that I have been doing a study on volume using IBD and told you that I had a contest with myself using this method of selecting against the canslim method and for a few years now canslim was getting beat, wouldn't you be interested in knowing how I performed the test? Or would you simply ignore the "contest"? Respectfully, Rick ---------- > From: Dan Musicant > To: canslim@mail.xmission.com > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Rick-Canslim no workee? > Date: Saturday, April 05, 1997 1:02 PM > > CANSLIM is a method of stock investment. It does not lend itself to > contests such a Rick suggests. I am far from an expert, but from what > I have read it seems to me that this contest (such as it is proposed) > violates the spirit and substance of O'Neil's methods. One does not > use CANSLIM to select 10 stocks and see how they compare to an index > over a given period. Rick is showing a lack of understanding of what > CANSLIM is by virtue of his proposal. > > Firstly, CANSLIM specifies the utmost care in determining the entry > point for a position. Timing is negated in the proposal. > > Secondly, CANSLIM is also at least equally predicated on proper timing > for selling a stock. > > Back to square one. > > Dan ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: GoldFish Subject: [CANSLIM] P/E ratio, debate Date: 04 Apr 1997 18:18:54 -0800 On page 18~21, first edition of Mr. O'Neil' book, How to make money in stocks, he said: 1)P/E ratio have a very little to do with whether a stock should be bought or not. Yet he pointed out during the 33 years (from 1953~1985), the best performing stocks at their early emerging stage has P/E=20. 2)P/E ratio was misused 3)a stock with high P/E (on average 20~30) isn't necessary expensive. I think the reason is an accelerating earning can justify the "high" P/E. 4)Don't sell a stock because of its high P/E and Don't buy a stock because it has low P/E. (an extension of 3rd point) Overall, I was not able to discover that he said PE numbers are worthless. Further, on page 135~136, he listed 11 parameters of David Ryan's winning stocks. And one of them is PE. Sincerely, Haw-Jye Shyu Brenda wrote: > > I notice that you still include PE in your analysis. As a CANSLIM follower > how do you justify Mr. O'Neil's statements in his book about how WORTHLESS > PE numbers are. He seems to me to be very, very plain about it. I > appreciate your information and I use information from lots of different > sources. Thanks for the time you took. Still interested about at what level > "in your mind" does a PE matter or not matter. > Tom? How about you? Does the PE matter? If so, what is acceptable? > James > ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: GoldFish Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Rick-Canslim no workee? Date: 05 Apr 1997 14:01:48 -0800 Boy, I see the white glove is off! James, would you do it? How about let's setup a group which favored CANSLIM, let's call it C-group. People in this C-group will select 10 stocks, and provide rational based on CANSLIM why they select the stock. And we can benchmark it against S&P500. Of course, Jame can do it by himself and Rick can do his own stock pick and benchmark anagist S&p 500 too. By doing this, we will be able to achieve 3 things: 1)a group of amature CANSLIMers can learn and share experience (without lossing real money!). 2)the expert of CANSLIM, Jame (of course), can really show off his power and establish his status as the genuine CANSLIM guru. His business will surely thrive afther this big success. (If he can not handle the booming, may be we all can be hired by him as moonlighting for a small fee.) 3)Rick can totally destroy the CANSLIM or be converted into a true CANSLIM believer. How about that, guys and gals it is a win-win situation! Sincerely, Haw-Jye Shyu ================================================================================ Rick Miller wrote: > > James: > > If ten stocks are too many, just pick 5. I'll bet that I can beat those 5 > stocks using two methods I have found successful: > > 1. Gut Feeling > 2. Volume study > > Just for fun, I can select three groups: > 1.5 stocks based on my gut feeling > 2.5 more stocks based on my gut feeling > 3.5 more stocks based on a volume study I've been doing > > You select any 5 stocks that meet your revered canslim and we'll watch them > over the next few months and I'll bet my stocks do better than yours. > > Rick Miller > > ---------- > > From: Brenda > > To: canslim > > Subject: [CANSLIM] Rick-Canslim no workee? > > Date: Saturday, April 05, 1997 11:03 AM > > > > Rick, > > I read your post and it sounds like you either do not know, > understand > > or fully understand how to use CANSLIM. Have you read Mr. O'Neil's book > How > > To Make Money In Stocks? How many times? Twice? Not near enough. I am > > constantly reading and studying and almost invariably pick up a different > > investment book each time I am in the library. I have found his system to > > be the best single system in print by far over anything I have ever > found. > > Have you tried the Dow Dogs, the Motely Fools four or five different > > methods. I think after you have tried several other system, AFTER FIRST > > knowing and understanding them you will find yourself coming back to > > CANSLIM. I find Mr. O'Neil to be in the very, very small minority with > many > > of his practices and philosophies. One easy one is buying stocks breaking > > into new high ground and not ones that "just can't" go down any more. > Once, > > you understand his system, FULLY and completely and have tracked it "on > > paper" for a YEAR and think you probably know it just about as well as > Mr. > > O'Neil itself (although most likely incorrect), then and only then can > you > > make assessments about how it works. > > Yes, I do add a twist or two of my personal own BUT if could only > use > > ONE recognized and known system the CANSLIM method would win by so far > that > > number two would be so distant who cares what it is. I do and have > tracked > > meticuosly since 1990 keeping ridiculously detailed records. Thank > heavens > > I no longer have to do much of that. It does still work but never forget > > one of his words of wisdom contianed in the book. When the direction of > the > > market is down, 3 out of 4 of your stocks will slump with the market, AND > > YOU WILL LOSE MONEY. I find those on this network do a LOT of research > and > > work. I call it homework. Without an investor doing a GREAT DEAL of > > homework I do not think he needs to be in the market. Not that you don't > > but I find most that I talk to ONLY THINK they do a lot of homework. I > > spend 15-18 hours a day working in the market and definetley do not think > I > > am the only one in this group that does that. > > Lots of luck! Luck has never been part of the formula for me but > many > > use just that. > > James > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: GoldFish Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Rick-Canslim no workee? Date: 05 Apr 1997 13:41:37 -0800 Jame: What Rick said is that he prefer you to set up a portfoilio traking system such that you can trak the performance of your picks and be able to compare with the S&P500. And you can report to this group. I think this will be a great contribution to the practice of CANSLIM, don't you think so? If he is an expert on CANSLIM, I doubt he will joint this group, will he? He will be very busy in making money with CANSLIM, right? Nonthless, I appreciate your post of the stocks you pick if you can show your rational of picking it (of course based on CANSLIM). Sincerely, Haw-Jye Shyu ==================================================================== Brenda wrote: > > Rick, > I read your post and it sounds like you either do not know, understand > or fully understand how to use CANSLIM. Have you read Mr. O'Neil's book How > To Make Money In Stocks? How many times? Twice? Not near enough. I am > constantly reading and studying and almost invariably pick up a different > investment book each time I am in the library. I have found his system to > be the best single system in print by far over anything I have ever found. > Have you tried the Dow Dogs, the Motely Fools four or five different > methods. I think after you have tried several other system, AFTER FIRST > knowing and understanding them you will find yourself coming back to > CANSLIM. I find Mr. O'Neil to be in the very, very small minority with many > of his practices and philosophies. One easy one is buying stocks breaking > into new high ground and not ones that "just can't" go down any more. Once, > you understand his system, FULLY and completely and have tracked it "on > paper" for a YEAR and think you probably know it just about as well as Mr. > O'Neil itself (although most likely incorrect), then and only then can you > make assessments about how it works. > James ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: GoldFish Subject: [CANSLIM] Re: test Date: 05 Apr 1997 15:57:31 -0800 Luke Lang wrote: this is a test. I send out 3 messages, one regarding to the PE, two regarding to Rick's contest since last night. ANd yest, I did not see them show up in this group. HJS ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Haw-Jye Shyu Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Rick-Canslim no workee? Date: 05 Apr 1997 20:46:43 +0000 Who says CANSLIM does not lend itself for contest? That's hogwash. Go to the page of 135 of Mr. O'Neil's book. It shows David Ryan who entering the 1985 U.S. Investing Championship. HJS ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: derek b Subject: [CANSLIM] A contest could be fun, educational Date: 05 Apr 1997 16:26:09 -0500 Rick's style is a bit brash, but he opens up a significant opportunity, in my opinion. It is my experience that even the most ardent CANSLIM adherents modify WON's methods to better fit that individual's preferred investment timeframe and particular interpretation of current market conditions. Thus, an opportunity to test one's modifications against others' picks in a periodic contest would be fun and educational. I have entered such contests on the Prodigy boards in the past, and the experience has allowed me to better articulate (to myself and others) the parameters that I use in selecting candidates for entering long or short positions. I have also found the comments of others useful regarding their specific selection techniques. Therefore I think there is a way to use Rick's suggestion in a constructive, educational, and supportive context. For everyone's reaction and comment (these are suggestions): 1. We need a scorekeeper. Someone very familiar with a spreadsheet could set a template up and kick the scorekeeping off. The template could be passed on in time, as this scorekeeping can get onerous. 2. Over what period would the contest extend? For the purposes of education and sharing, I suggest a one-month period. One week is likely too short for the investment personalities of those on this list, and anything longer than a month will likely deflate participant interest. 3. For comparative purposes, it would be helpful for some common rules. For example: a. Each contestant selects four stocks and posts them to this group in the 3 days prior to the 1st of the month. Stocks must trade on the NYSE, NASDAQ national market, or AMEX. No pink sheet, Vancouver, etc. stocks and no derivatives (as in options). b. Contestants must provide at least a phrase describing why each of the stocks was selected. c. Stocks can be either bought or sold short. d. No changes can be made in the contestants portfolios over the month. e. Selected stocks must trade for >$5 at time of posting. f. Entry price will be Open price on the 1st trading day of the month. Contest ends with closing price of last trading day of the month. g. The scorekeeper will post contestant standings at least weekly. So, does anyone see merit here? Do we have someone willing to shoulder the scorekeeping duties for the first 6 months? Derek > > No, canslim does not lend itself to contests, I agree. But you invest to > make money, don't you? All I am saying is that there might be, just might > be other methods that work better than canslim. (Sorry for the blasphemy > canslimmers) What other way than to test one method against another to > find out which one works best time after time? ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Brenda" Subject: [CANSLIM] SFDS Date: 05 Apr 1997 15:34:47 -0600 Ok you CANSLIMrs. Put this one through the ringer. Came right out of Friday's Week-End Review. Does it fit the mold? Did it jump too high? Beyond the 5% buy range? Earlier today I read a post of somebody wanting something free. Nothing wrong with that I guess, but everytime I hear free it reminds me of this. An older man took me under his wings to teach me how to play Duplicate Bridge. One of his first lessons he stated would not only apply to bridge but to most other aspects of life. He said while learning and even after becoming a master in bridge many would offer their opinions and their advice which they value dearly. He told me, always remember what you have paid or are paying them for this advice. If the answer is NOTHING, please remember that more times than not that advice is usually worth just about what you pay for it. When someone here offers a stock followed by a string of numbers. I do not consider it free that I know what it says. Anyone who can read the numbers has paid a price, done his homework, spent some time learning something they did not know before. Others often find fault with the info and are looking for a quicker, easier way. Sometimes in life there is not a quicker, easier way. Who is that who says, "The Old Fashioned Way?". For some the symbol and numbers might as well be written in Greek or Latin. However, what is amazing that a simply written book for the average investor for under $20, a newspaper for about a dollar a day, an average mind, and a little time can turn the Greek into a first grade primer and also a GOLD MINE. Just a thought. Thanks in advance to any of you who offer your opinion. James ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Brenda" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] P/E ratio, debate Date: 05 Apr 1997 16:26:25 -0600 Goldfish, Touche! One for you! Here are a few of my comments. If PE were "THAT" important to his way of investing I would think it would be CANSPLIM. I find the fact on page 18 that highlighted is, "Factual analysis of each cycle's winning stocks shows that P/E ratios have very little to do with whether a stock shoudl be bought or not." As to Mr. Ryan's philosphies about investing and what he follows. If I look at the USA Funds track record during the greatest BULL market we have EVER seen I am certainly not impressed. The monkey in NY is doing much better. Also, when there is a six month period that shows a net loss during the raging period when almost all were flying up, I gotta problem to want to invest the same way. I, personally, have no idea what he has to follow, his restraints and why the fund's performance does not look better than it does. I just know that I am working at this thing full time and until I see "a record of success" I am not particulary interested. Sorry! Another example might be to look at Berger Small Cap. It never did what it has recently done while the old man was at the helm. On page 20 the only statement in bold type is, "Everything sells for about what it is worth." This is made right in the middle of his discussion about P/E's. Next paaragraph, Some High P/E's That Were Cheap. Next paragraph, Don't Sell High P/E Stocks Short. Bold print: Investors' personal opinions (mine included) are generally wrong; markets seldom are. No, I am NOT Wm. O'Neil. Do not profess to be. However, I do read his book a LOT and very often. I use it to answer any question that I have. If it does not address an issue I do not find that the issue needs to be addressed. I'm sure P/E's mean something. I just find them terribly misleading and find I do much, much better ignoring and preferably not knowing what it is. Case in point: In 1990/1991 I would not buy at that time CSPK simply because it had a PE of over 200. The PE went to over 600. I watched as the stock went from 2 to 8 to..... (The sky). The ONLY reason I never bought it was that darn PE number. Split adjusted I guess that $2 figure represented about $.35 a share now. Sure it has fallen but when I think about the missed opportunity on this one. My opinion, and that's all it is, is just one of many. Mr. O'Neil is way, way, way ahead of me and I would love to sit down with him for whatever time he could spare. That will not happen so I just continue to try to read and use his book. I value it deeply. Please take this in the spirit intended and if others think that Mr. O'Neil thinks PE is very important tell me where you see that stated. Thanks! James ---------- > From: GoldFish > To: canslim@mail.xmission.com > Subject: [CANSLIM] P/E ratio, debate > Date: Friday, April 04, 1997 8:18 PM > > On page 18~21, first edition of Mr. O'Neil' book, How to make money in > stocks, he said: > > 1)P/E ratio have a very little to do with whether a stock should be > bought or not. Yet he pointed out during the 33 years (from 1953~1985), > the best performing stocks at their early emerging stage has P/E=20. > > 2)P/E ratio was misused > > 3)a stock with high P/E (on average 20~30) isn't necessary expensive. > I think the reason is an accelerating earning can justify the > "high" P/E. > > 4)Don't sell a stock because of its high P/E and Don't buy a stock > because it has low P/E. (an extension of 3rd point) > > Overall, I was not able to discover that he said PE numbers are > worthless. > > Further, on page 135~136, he listed 11 parameters of David Ryan's > winning > stocks. And one of them is PE. > > > Sincerely, > > > Haw-Jye Shyu > > > ------------------------------------------------------------------ > Brenda wrote: > > > > I notice that you still include PE in your analysis. As a CANSLIM follower > > how do you justify Mr. O'Neil's statements in his book about how WORTHLESS > > PE numbers are. He seems to me to be very, very plain about it. I > > appreciate your information and I use information from lots of different > > sources. Thanks for the time you took. Still interested about at what level > > "in your mind" does a PE matter or not matter. > > Tom? How about you? Does the PE matter? If so, what is acceptable? > > James > > ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Rick-Canslim no workee? Date: 05 Apr 1997 18:10:26 -0500 I'd still like to hear an answer from Rick about if, and how often, he has read HTMMIS. I'm also curious why he is even here, since his comments strongly suggest to me that he has no faith in CANSLIM. I believe in it, and am here to share what I know and learn to use it better. What are your reasons for being here, Rick, besides offering your volume based system which does so much better? Are you looking for converts? tom w ---------- > From: GoldFish > To: canslim@mail.xmission.com > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Rick-Canslim no workee? > Date: Saturday, April 05, 1997 4:41 PM > > Jame: > > What Rick said is that he prefer you to set up a portfoilio traking > > If he is an expert on CANSLIM, I doubt he will joint this group, will > Brenda wrote: > > > > Rick, > > I read your post and it sounds like you either do not know, understand > > or fully understand how to use CANSLIM. Have you read Mr. O'Neil's book How > > To Make Money In Stocks? How many times? Twice? Not near enough. I am ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] SFDS Date: 05 Apr 1997 18:37:11 -0500 Concur, James I have adopted a personal policy, as of today and a result of disgust and boredom with this entire discussion, that I will no longer offer any comments or feedback on any stock picks that were not posted with supporting CANSLIM basis. If nothing else, this will force those that don't yet understand the philosophy to either buy and read the book or get out of the group. This is not a place for free training, if you don't want to do the homework, go try Motley Fools or other "free" stock picking sites. This doesn't mean I won't go look at some picks, I just won't share what I learn with the group as I did, for example, with Miller Herman (credit to James). I have proven time after time that I am willing to help those who are here to learn and willing to work. I have a lot of knowledge and experience, not only about CANSLIM but about the stock market and what moves it and how broker dealers work. I will continue to share that with this group, if this group gets back on track. Lately, when we could have been having some good discussions about "M" for example, there has been only silence. I have obviously reduced my "Market Comments" frequency, not because I am doing anything different, but because there has been ZERO comments or feedback, other than one referencing a Barrons article, to which I took offense and haven't even bothered reading (toilet paper is usually more attractive to me than Barron's). I feel like I am posting to a black hole, and this weekend's BS is only confirming that. Nonetheless, I am still working my eleven or so hours a day, then spending two or three more hours reviewing what REALLY went on that day in the market, the difference is that I am not bothering to type up my thoughts and findings unless I see something major and compelling. Those that have been in this group for some time know I don't usually get this riled. Maybe it's time to split this group into those that want to play games, but don't really believe in CANSLIM or trust it with real money, and those who are trying to cash in on the best system they have found? ---------- > From: Brenda > To: canslim > Subject: [CANSLIM] SFDS > Date: Saturday, April 05, 1997 4:34 PM > > Ok you CANSLIMrs. Put this one through the ringer. Came right out of > Friday's Week-End Review. Does it fit the mold? Did it jump too high? > Beyond the 5% buy range? > Earlier today I read a post of somebody wanting something free. > Nothing wrong with that I guess, but everytime I hear free it reminds me of > However, what is amazing that a simply written book for the average > investor for under $20, a newspaper for about a dollar a day, an average > mind, and a little time can turn the Greek into a first grade primer and > also a GOLD MINE. Just a thought. Thanks in advance to any of you who offer > your opinion. > James ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] P/E ratio, debate Date: 05 Apr 1997 18:50:00 -0500 One way I do include PE in my reviews is to calculate what the projected PE is for the current and, if available, next year based on current price and compare that to the trailing PE. If I have a relatively high trailing PE which drops sharply on projected PEs, then I have confirmed in my mind some CANSLIM criteria of earnings growth and don't consider it further. As I understand it, recent earnings, with extra weigh on the two most recent qtrs, carries a big part of the CANSLIM forecasting. Thus if earnings are accelerating (thus reducing projected PE nrs) then it fits. If earnings are flattening out, then an already high PE will remain in the future and the stock will fail CANSLIM criteria, not because of the high PE but because of declerating earnings growth. I also agree with your comments on performance of New USA Fund run by Ryan. As I previously mentioned I know from personal knowledge that he missed one big leg up in the market because he was expecting a correction/crash as was heavy in cash. There seems a philosophy in life that when you are a big winner, you cash in your chips and ride the reputation. Garzarelli did it in '87, wonder if Ryan has done the same after winning three back-to-back nat'l championships. In other words, when you are already a big winner, and have a reputation vs being an "unknown", do you remain as much of a risk taker as you were before? Are you even allowed to be? tom w ---------- > From: Brenda > To: canslim@mail.xmission.com > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] P/E ratio, debate > Date: Saturday, April 05, 1997 5:26 PM > > My opinion, and that's all it is, is just one of many. Mr. O'Neil is > way, way, way ahead of me and I would love to sit down with him for > whatever time he could spare. That will not happen so I just continue to > try to read and use his book. I value it deeply. > Please take this in the spirit intended and if others think that Mr. > O'Neil thinks PE is very important tell me where you see that stated. > Thanks! > James ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Fw: [CANSLIM] A contest could be fun, educational Date: 05 Apr 1997 18:54:16 -0500 Once again, this one not returned in normal time, and I am too impatient and PO'd to wait and see if it will meander back eventually so will resend it. tom w ---------- > From: Tom Worley > To: canslim@mail.xmission.com > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] A contest could be fun, educational > Date: Saturday, April 05, 1997 6:18 PM > > This sounds like another rigid Sandbox/FinalBell game. No thanks, I > play my game with real money in a real, live, real time market. No "1st > of the month" picks for me. > Frankly I would like to see this group get back to CANSLIM, post your > ideas (preferably with your interpretation of how they fit CANSLIM, > don't just throw a symbol or name out and let someone else dig up the > data for you) then be prepared to defend it. Play it on paper or for > real, your choice. Frankly, this group is getting thin on comments, > feedback, ideas, and basic CANSLIM discussion. In the past two days, > two different people have posted some picks they like. Neither included > any CANSLIM data, thus I don't even have a glimmer whether it is worth > my time to go look at them, but I will because the two individuals > understand CANSLIM. However, since then, I have not seen anyone respond > back with questions, challenge, discussion or anything else. > > Let's get this group back on topic or I'm outta here! > > tom w > ---------- > > From: derek b > > To: canslim@mail.xmission.com > > Subject: [CANSLIM] A contest could be fun, educational > > Date: Saturday, April 05, 1997 4:26 PM > > > > Rick's style is a bit brash, but he opens up a significant > opportunity, > > in my opinion. It is my experience that even the most ardent CANSLIM > > adherents modify WON's methods to better fit that individual's > preferred > > investment timeframe and particular interpretation of current market > > conditions. > > > > Thus, an opportunity to test one's modifications against others' > picks > > in a periodic contest would be fun and educational. I have entered > such > ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Brenda" Subject: [CANSLIM] SFDS Date: 05 Apr 1997 18:20:00 -0600 Tom, I posted SFDS for several reasons. Almost all of the stocks on my base have come from the Week-End Review section of IBD. This guarantees that the stock meets many of the CANSLIM criteria. I have always wondered about stocks that appear in this section which under the Mutual Interest column are blank. NO Mutual fund own any of this stocks shares or maybe IBD is not aware of whether they do or not, or (any other ideas). Just to be here we know the EPS and REL numbers are appropriate. Also Accumulation is going to be there. The question I had was, If you look you can see a cup and a handle. (OK, not as great as we would like to see, but in this market maybe I stretch a little from time to time and yes that stretching can get me in trouble). You can also see a break-out hitting a new high on over 50% increase in volume. However, my graph shows, as a stock which does this often does, that it jumped 5%+ from the previous top. Do, you, actually never purchase a stock where this happens. Many times you find the stock AFTER this break out has occurred. To buy some right you would have to be watching it minute by minute and could even actually miss the buy point this way. I am asking, with a stock like this, with a graph (aka-price pattern) like this where do YOU draw your upper purchase limit? Would love to hear your answer. Thanks James ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: CardioPhil@aol.com Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Rick-Canslim no workee? Date: 05 Apr 1997 19:26:02 -0500 (EST) In a message dated 97-04-05 13:32:30 EST, you write: << It sounds like you believe (worship) strongly in canslim and have had remarkable results. What are your results? You don't have to tell me how much you have made in dollars, but what has been your annual return on all stocks purchased using canslim? James, I challenge you to select 10 stocks over the weekend using canslim and let's compare the performance of those ten stocks to the S&P 500's performance and see if you can beat the S&P 500. We will select the closing prices (as of Friday, April 4) of the ten stocks you pick and compare the performance (in percentage increase or decrease) on a weekly (or other if you prefer) basis. The S&P 500 closed Friday at 757.90. In fact, I challenge any canslimer to pick ten stocks and prove to me it can beat the S&P 500 over the period of your choice. You must also show me how each stock selected meets the canslim requirement. Let's have some fun! >> James - The point of CANSLIM won't allow a 'pick ten stocks and compare it to the S&P' method. First, it cannot be done now, as any stock can only have CANSLI- right now. Second, CANSLIM includes specific buy and sell points. Without these points executed appropraitely, nothing counts. The stocks would have to be posted as it is time to buy, and sell stops given. Phil ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Rick Miller" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] SFDS Date: 05 Apr 1997 18:36:00 -0600 Tom: Based on your comments and your tone, you obviously think you know more than anyone else about canslim, and you are not open to any other methods. Who gave you the right to force anyone out of a discussion group. Barrons is not in your class? You must be something. We should all bow down to you oh guru of all investment knowledge. You said you were disgusted and bored with the entire discussion? Maybe because you were not the "expert" giving all the advice, now you are bored? Apparantly, only you know what REALLY goes on in the stock market? Get real! You said you are here to help those who are willing to learn (who made you professor of canslim?) and then you say this is not a place for free training? Excuse me, but do you own the canslim forum? Who are YOU?? Maybe the group should split off: ones who want to learn something and have some fun doing it even if it means giving up some of their own cherished opinions which may indeed be fallacious and the other group of old, cranky, arrogant know-it-alls who worship canslim. ---------- > From: Tom Worley > To: canslim@mail.xmission.com > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] SFDS > Date: Saturday, April 05, 1997 5:37 PM > > Concur, James > I have adopted a personal policy, as of today and a result of disgust > and boredom with this entire discussion, that I will no longer offer > any comments or feedback on any stock picks that were not posted with > supporting CANSLIM basis. If nothing else, this will force those that > don't yet understand the philosophy to either buy and read the book or > get out of the group. This is not a place for free training, if you > don't want to do the homework, go try Motley Fools or other "free" > stock picking sites. This doesn't mean I won't go look at some picks, I > just won't share what I learn with the group as I did, for example, > with Miller Herman (credit to James). > I have proven time after time that I am willing to help those who are > here to learn and willing to work. I have a lot of knowledge and > experience, not only about CANSLIM but about the stock market and what > moves it and how broker dealers work. I will continue to share that > with this group, if this group gets back on track. Lately, when we > could have been having some good discussions about "M" for example, > there has been only silence. > > I have obviously reduced my "Market Comments" frequency, not because I > am doing anything different, but because there has been ZERO comments > or feedback, other than one referencing a Barrons article, to which I > took offense and haven't even bothered reading (toilet paper is usually > more attractive to me than Barron's). I feel like I am posting to a > black hole, and this weekend's BS is only confirming that. Nonetheless, > I am still working my eleven or so hours a day, then spending two or > three more hours reviewing what REALLY went on that day in the market, > the difference is that I am not bothering to type up my thoughts and > findings unless I see something major and compelling. > > Those that have been in this group for some time know I don't usually > get this riled. Maybe it's time to split this group into those that > want to play games, but don't really believe in CANSLIM or trust it > with real money, and those who are trying to cash in on the best system > they have found? > > ---------- > > From: Brenda > > To: canslim > > Subject: [CANSLIM] SFDS > > Date: Saturday, April 05, 1997 4:34 PM > > > > Ok you CANSLIMrs. Put this one through the ringer. Came right out of > > Friday's Week-End Review. Does it fit the mold? Did it jump too high? > > Beyond the 5% buy range? > > Earlier today I read a post of somebody wanting something free. > > Nothing wrong with that I guess, but everytime I hear free it reminds > me of > > > However, what is amazing that a simply written book for the average > > investor for under $20, a newspaper for about a dollar a day, an > average > > mind, and a little time can turn the Greek into a first grade primer > and > > also a GOLD MINE. Just a thought. Thanks in advance to any of you who > offer > > your opinion. > > James ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: CardioPhil@aol.com Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Rick-Canslim no workee? Date: 05 Apr 1997 19:38:42 -0500 (EST) In a message dated 97-04-05 16:20:25 EST, you write: << Who says CANSLIM does not lend itself for contest? That's hogwash. Go to the page of 135 of Mr. O'Neil's book. It shows David Ryan who entering the 1985 U.S. Investing Championship. >> This is a different contest format than pick ten and compare. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Luke Lang Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] P/E ratio, debate Date: 05 Apr 1997 16:43:39 -0600 Tom, Another way that P/E has been useful and discussed here is to identify stocks that can be hurt the most during a correction. During a bull market, CANSLIM works well and P/E is not that important. If I recall correctly, O'Neil says that the best breakouts that he has seen happen when P/E is around 40. Luke Lang Tom Worley wrote: > > One way I do include PE in my reviews is to calculate what the > projected PE is for the current and, if available, next year based on > current price and compare that to the trailing PE. If I have a > relatively high trailing PE which drops sharply on projected PEs, then > I have confirmed in my mind some CANSLIM criteria of earnings growth > and don't consider it further. As I understand it, recent earnings, > with extra weigh on the two most recent qtrs, carries a big part of the > CANSLIM forecasting. Thus if earnings are accelerating (thus reducing > projected PE nrs) then it fits. If earnings are flattening out, then an > already high PE will remain in the future and the stock will fail > CANSLIM criteria, not because of the high PE but because of declerating > earnings growth. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] SFDS Date: 05 Apr 1997 19:49:31 -0500 Following my earlier stated new personal policy on commenting, have sent my remarks on James' stock picks, including SFDS, to him privately. However, this one has promise, altho don't like the 72% debt. On the broader question of chasing a stock that has already moved "too high", yes I have chased, sometimes foolishly, a stock. This one didn't have much of a base and gave little opportunity or warning of an entry pt. On the other hand, I would probably not chase it, the ones I like to "chase" are the ones that "started at the lower left and continued to the upper right" with little volatility. Those are the charts that you can get away with buying an extended stock. Of course, do this in an orderly mkt, something we haven't seen lately. This one has the overall LL/UR pattern but the volatility suggests to me it is at the upper side of its channel and could pull back if vol dries up. And yeah, I did notice a somewhat imperfect c&h here, would actually have preferred to see a well defined base of some kind, no matter if it was the handle. tom w ---------- > From: Brenda > To: canslim > Subject: [CANSLIM] SFDS > Date: Saturday, April 05, 1997 7:20 PM > > Tom, > I posted SFDS for several reasons. Almost all of the stocks on my base > have come from the Week-End Review section of IBD. This guarantees that the > stock meets many of the CANSLIM criteria. I have always wondered about > be there. The question I had was, If you look you can see a cup and a > handle. (OK, not as great as we would like to see, but in this market maybe > I stretch a little from time to time and yes that stretching can get me in > trouble). You can also see a break-out hitting a new high on over 50% > increase in volume. However, my graph shows, as a stock which does this > often does, that it jumped 5%+ from the previous top. Do, you, actually > never purchase a stock where this happens. Many times you find the stock > AFTER this break out has occurred. To buy some right you would have to be > ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: CardioPhil@aol.com Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] A contest could be fun, educational Date: 05 Apr 1997 20:05:32 -0500 (EST) In a message dated 97-04-05 16:47:54 EST, you write: << For everyone's reaction and comment (these are suggestions): 1. We need a scorekeeper. Someone very familiar with a spreadsheet could set a template up and kick the scorekeeping off. The template could be passed on in time, as this scorekeeping can get onerous. 2. Over what period would the contest extend? For the purposes of education and sharing, I suggest a one-month period. One week is likely too short for the investment personalities of those on this list, and anything longer than a month will likely deflate participant interest. 3. For comparative purposes, it would be helpful for some common rules. For example: a. Each contestant selects four stocks and posts them to this group in the 3 days prior to the 1st of the month. Stocks must trade on the NYSE, NASDAQ national market, or AMEX. No pink sheet, Vancouver, etc. stocks and no derivatives (as in options). b. Contestants must provide at least a phrase describing why each of the stocks was selected. c. Stocks can be either bought or sold short. d. No changes can be made in the contestants portfolios over the month. e. Selected stocks must trade for >$5 at time of posting. f. Entry price will be Open price on the 1st trading day of the month. Contest ends with closing price of last trading day of the month. g. The scorekeeper will post contestant standings at least weekly. So, does anyone see merit here? >> I like the idea. However, while it would make scorekeeping more difficult, the best method of comparing techniques is by a portfolio method of competition. This allows players to have some percentage as cash, and hence, buy something a day or week later, if a good prospect crops up. No interest is given for money in cash, and no margin buying is allowed. Furthermore, 6 to 8 weeks is likely required. - Each contestant gets $100,000 to invest the way the want. - Each buy must be placed here, and will be assumed executed at the opening market price. - Each stock, once bought, can be given a sell stop, which will count as exectued if it is reached at anypoint. The stop can be changed on any day, and it will take effect at the following days open. - Also, a market order sell can be given. and will be executed at the following day's opening price. - Let us assume a $20 per transaction commission fee. Phil PS - While I am pretty good with a spreadsheet, and would love the chance to be the scorekeeper, I am very busy at work and would hate to let anyone down. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] P/E ratio, debate Date: 05 Apr 1997 19:54:02 -0500 Concur, the key is "during a bull market". In a correction, the high PE stocks, whether trailing or projected, but esp trailing, seem to be hit hardest (yeah, I know I'm preaching to the choir on this right now). Why don't we ask rick instead! tom w ---------- > From: Luke Lang > To: canslim@mail.xmission.com > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] P/E ratio, debate > Date: Saturday, April 05, 1997 5:43 PM > > Another way that P/E has been useful and discussed here is to identify > stocks that can be hurt the most during a correction. During a bull > market, CANSLIM works well and P/E is not that important. If I recall ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Brenda" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] SFDS Date: 05 Apr 1997 19:19:26 -0600 Brenda here: I couldn't resist this one........Get a grip, Rick!!!!!! This IS a canslim discussion list.....right or wrong? Furthermore, your attack on Tom........he thinks he knows more than anyone else?????? Why do you say that? Because he didn't agree with you? I know, yeah, yeah, yeah.........RICK: THE ONE AND ONLY 'TRUE' GURU...............NOT!!!!! ---------- > From: Rick Miller > To: canslim@mail.xmission.com > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] SFDS > Date: Saturday, April 05, 1997 6:36 PM > > Tom: > > Based on your comments and your tone, you obviously think you know more > than anyone else about canslim, and you are not open to any other methods. > Who gave you the right to force anyone out of a discussion group. Barrons > is not in your class? You must be something. We should all bow down to > you oh guru of all investment knowledge. You said you were disgusted and > bored with the entire discussion? Maybe because you were not the "expert" > giving all the advice, now you are bored? > Apparantly, only you know what REALLY goes on in the stock market? Get > real! > You said you are here to help those who are willing to learn (who made you > professor of canslim?) and then you say this is not a place for free > training? Excuse me, but do you own the canslim forum? Who are YOU?? > Maybe the group should split off: ones who want to learn something and have > some fun doing it even if it means giving up some of their own cherished > opinions which may indeed be fallacious and the other group of old, cranky, > arrogant know-it-alls who worship canslim. > > ---------- > > From: Tom Worley > > To: canslim@mail.xmission.com > > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] SFDS > > Date: Saturday, April 05, 1997 5:37 PM > > > > Concur, James > > I have adopted a personal policy, as of today and a result of disgust > > and boredom with this entire discussion, that I will no longer offer > > any comments or feedback on any stock picks that were not posted with > > supporting CANSLIM basis. If nothing else, this will force those that > > don't yet understand the philosophy to either buy and read the book or > > get out of the group. This is not a place for free training, if you > > don't want to do the homework, go try Motley Fools or other "free" > > stock picking sites. This doesn't mean I won't go look at some picks, I > > just won't share what I learn with the group as I did, for example, > > with Miller Herman (credit to James). > > I have proven time after time that I am willing to help those who are > > here to learn and willing to work. I have a lot of knowledge and > > experience, not only about CANSLIM but about the stock market and what > > moves it and how broker dealers work. I will continue to share that > > with this group, if this group gets back on track. Lately, when we > > could have been having some good discussions about "M" for example, > > there has been only silence. > > > > I have obviously reduced my "Market Comments" frequency, not because I > > am doing anything different, but because there has been ZERO comments > > or feedback, other than one referencing a Barrons article, to which I > > took offense and haven't even bothered reading (toilet paper is usually > > more attractive to me than Barron's). I feel like I am posting to a > > black hole, and this weekend's BS is only confirming that. Nonetheless, > > I am still working my eleven or so hours a day, then spending two or > > three more hours reviewing what REALLY went on that day in the market, > > the difference is that I am not bothering to type up my thoughts and > > findings unless I see something major and compelling. > > > > Those that have been in this group for some time know I don't usually > > get this riled. Maybe it's time to split this group into those that > > want to play games, but don't really believe in CANSLIM or trust it > > with real money, and those who are trying to cash in on the best system > > they have found? > > > > ---------- > > > From: Brenda > > > To: canslim > > > Subject: [CANSLIM] SFDS > > > Date: Saturday, April 05, 1997 4:34 PM > > > > > > Ok you CANSLIMrs. Put this one through the ringer. Came right out of > > > Friday's Week-End Review. Does it fit the mold? Did it jump too high? > > > Beyond the 5% buy range? > > > Earlier today I read a post of somebody wanting something free. > > > Nothing wrong with that I guess, but everytime I hear free it reminds > > me of > > > > > However, what is amazing that a simply written book for the average > > > investor for under $20, a newspaper for about a dollar a day, an > > average > > > mind, and a little time can turn the Greek into a first grade primer > > and > > > also a GOLD MINE. Just a thought. Thanks in advance to any of you who > > offer > > > your opinion. > > > James ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: pwahl@postoffice.worldnet.att.net Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Will the market hold? (SRR) Date: 05 Apr 1997 17:57:00 -0800 > From: "Tom Worley" > Correction: bonds were down throughout the day, closing down 23 ticks > (32's), which in the good ole days of predictable mkts would have meant > the stock mkt would also be down (and it was for a few minutes, Oops, I meant interest rates up, bonds down. Good one day rally anyway, though I noticed the DJ Utility average also down. Patrick Wahl ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: pwahl@postoffice.worldnet.att.net Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Rick-Canslim no workee? Date: 05 Apr 1997 17:57:00 -0800 > From: "Rick Miller" > Friday at 757.90. In fact, I challenge any canslimer to pick ten stocks > and prove to me it can beat the S&P 500 over the period of your choice. > You must also show me how each stock selected meets the canslim > requirement. Let's have some fun! Gee, sounds like a blast. As if people don't have enough to do in trying to pick stocks for actual investing purposes, you are asking them to spend time trying to pick stocks for some sort of contest in order to prove to you that CANSLIM is a legitimate approach to investing. If anyone falls for this flame-bait, I hope you will keep it private. I get enough email without trying to slog through that sort of junk. Patrick Wahl ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: pwahl@postoffice.worldnet.att.net Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] P/E ratio, debate Date: 05 Apr 1997 17:57:00 -0800 > From: "Brenda" > whether a stock shoudl be bought or not." As to Mr. Ryan's philosphies > about investing and what he follows. If I look at the USA Funds track > record during the greatest BULL market we have EVER seen I am certainly not I think this may prove that running a fund is a totally different discipline than individual investing with a small (relatively) amount of money. I think Ryan showed his ablilities in winning that investing contest 3 years in a row, so I tend to think what he says is worth listening to. > Please take this in the spirit intended and if others think that Mr. > O'Neil thinks PE is very important tell me where you see that stated. > Thanks! Nothing on O'Neil, but here is the quote from Ryan. If you don't like Ryan, then this won't mean much. Page 250 of Market Wizards, Ryan says "I learned that most of our greatest winning recommendations started off with prices under thirty times earnings. O'Neil says the P/E is not important. I think it is, in that your succes rate is a lot higher on lower P/E ratio stocks." Personally, I try to take into account growth rate, market cap, and then throw P/E into the mix and see if a company seem valued at a a price that permits further price appreciation. P/E is really only meaningful as it pertains to expected growth. The best resolution to this question is if some ambitious person wants to back test this sort of thing. Otherwise we are all just speculating on what the correct answer is, myself included. Patrick Wahl ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: pwahl@postoffice.worldnet.att.net Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] A contest could be fun, educational Date: 05 Apr 1997 17:57:00 -0800 > From: derek b > > So, does anyone see merit here? No, it sound like a major pain in the butt. If you feel you want to hold a contest for no other purpose than proving to someone who is not very interested in CANSLIM anyway that it is a viable approach to the market, please hold it privately. After using CANSLIM for 8 years, I feel pretty comfortable with the idea that it is one of the best ways to go, not the only way certainly, but very suitable to the way I wish to approach investing. I don't see any point in trying to argue someone else into believing that it is a good approach, and I don't want to sift through a lot of other posts that attempt to do that. Patrick Wahl ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Rick Miller" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] SFDS Date: 05 Apr 1997 20:06:44 -0600 Brenda: If you read Tom's comments carefully, you will understand the condescending tone he uses. Also, he belittles others who had a question about an article in Barrons(not my question). There are people in this discussion group who are sincerely interested in the canslim method, as I am, but who would also like to confirm their belief that it is the best method. What other way do you know of to test the validity of something other than to place it under the most challenging scrutiny and test conditions? That's all I am suggesting. Others from this group have written me privately and they think a contest of some kind would not only be fun, but would confirm their BELIEF in canslim. If you are totally sold on canslim to the point of not even considering to test its validity, then I think you, like Tom, should just ignore the testing and contest that others in this group would like to perform. I prefer to keep my mind open and not to think in either extreme: Irrational gullibility on the one hand, or irrational scepticism on the other. By the way, Brenda, there was no disagreement on any issue that I had with Tom. I was just commenting on his attitude concerning the discussion others and myself were having about the possibility of a contest of some kind. Just because Tom thinks it's a bad idea (or you for that matter) does not in and of itself make it irrelevant to this group. Further, I do not claim to have any answers about how to invest as does Tom, I am just seeking truth. I do believe that something can be learned if it is done right. And although I have read O'Neil's book and I have picked stocks based on canslim and want to learn more about canslim, I am not yet convinced that it is the best method. Maybe someday I will, but until then I remain in a questioning mode and will challenge any method until it survives to my satisfaction the test of scrutiny. Respectfully, Rick ---------- > From: Brenda > To: canslim@mail.xmission.com > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] SFDS > Date: Saturday, April 05, 1997 7:19 PM > > Brenda here: > I couldn't resist this one........Get a grip, Rick!!!!!! > This IS a canslim discussion list.....right or wrong? > Furthermore, your attack on Tom........he thinks he knows more than anyone > else?????? Why do you say that? Because he didn't agree with you? I > know, yeah, yeah, yeah.........RICK: THE ONE AND ONLY 'TRUE' > GURU...............NOT!!!!! > > ---------- > > From: Rick Miller > > To: canslim@mail.xmission.com > > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] SFDS > > Date: Saturday, April 05, 1997 6:36 PM > > > > Tom: > > > > Based on your comments and your tone, you obviously think you know more > > than anyone else about canslim, and you are not open to any other > methods. > > Who gave you the right to force anyone out of a discussion group. > Barrons > > is not in your class? You must be something. We should all bow down to > > you oh guru of all investment knowledge. You said you were disgusted and > > bored with the entire discussion? Maybe because you were not the > "expert" > > giving all the advice, now you are bored? > > Apparantly, only you know what REALLY goes on in the stock market? Get > > real! > > You said you are here to help those who are willing to learn (who made > you > > professor of canslim?) and then you say this is not a place for free > > training? Excuse me, but do you own the canslim forum? Who are YOU?? > > Maybe the group should split off: ones who want to learn something and > have > > some fun doing it even if it means giving up some of their own cherished > > opinions which may indeed be fallacious and the other group of old, > cranky, > > arrogant know-it-alls who worship canslim. > > > > ---------- > > > From: Tom Worley > > > To: canslim@mail.xmission.com > > > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] SFDS > > > Date: Saturday, April 05, 1997 5:37 PM > > > > > > Concur, James > > > I have adopted a personal policy, as of today and a result of disgust > > > and boredom with this entire discussion, that I will no longer offer > > > any comments or feedback on any stock picks that were not posted with > > > supporting CANSLIM basis. If nothing else, this will force those that > > > don't yet understand the philosophy to either buy and read the book or > > > get out of the group. This is not a place for free training, if you > > > don't want to do the homework, go try Motley Fools or other "free" > > > stock picking sites. This doesn't mean I won't go look at some picks, I > > > just won't share what I learn with the group as I did, for example, > > > with Miller Herman (credit to James). > > > I have proven time after time that I am willing to help those who are > > > here to learn and willing to work. I have a lot of knowledge and > > > experience, not only about CANSLIM but about the stock market and what > > > moves it and how broker dealers work. I will continue to share that > > > with this group, if this group gets back on track. Lately, when we > > > could have been having some good discussions about "M" for example, > > > there has been only silence. > > > > > > I have obviously reduced my "Market Comments" frequency, not because I > > > am doing anything different, but because there has been ZERO comments > > > or feedback, other than one referencing a Barrons article, to which I > > > took offense and haven't even bothered reading (toilet paper is usually > > > more attractive to me than Barron's). I feel like I am posting to a > > > black hole, and this weekend's BS is only confirming that. Nonetheless, > > > I am still working my eleven or so hours a day, then spending two or > > > three more hours reviewing what REALLY went on that day in the market, > > > the difference is that I am not bothering to type up my thoughts and > > > findings unless I see something major and compelling. > > > > > > Those that have been in this group for some time know I don't usually > > > get this riled. Maybe it's time to split this group into those that > > > want to play games, but don't really believe in CANSLIM or trust it > > > with real money, and those who are trying to cash in on the best system > > > they have found? > > > > > > ---------- > > > > From: Brenda > > > > To: canslim > > > > Subject: [CANSLIM] SFDS > > > > Date: Saturday, April 05, 1997 4:34 PM > > > > > > > > Ok you CANSLIMrs. Put this one through the ringer. Came right out of > > > > Friday's Week-End Review. Does it fit the mold? Did it jump too high? > > > > Beyond the 5% buy range? > > > > Earlier today I read a post of somebody wanting something free. > > > > Nothing wrong with that I guess, but everytime I hear free it reminds > > > me of > > > > > > > However, what is amazing that a simply written book for the average > > > > investor for under $20, a newspaper for about a dollar a day, an > > > average > > > > mind, and a little time can turn the Greek into a first grade primer > > > and > > > > also a GOLD MINE. Just a thought. Thanks in advance to any of you who > > > offer > > > > your opinion. > > > > James ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Mike Artobello" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] SFDS Date: 05 Apr 1997 18:11:54 -0800 OK, I for one have had enough of Rick Miller. I've been listening to him critize Canslim ever since he joined the group and now this attack on Tom. Anyone who has been on this list for any length of time knows that Tom has always been very helpful and kind enough to share his market experience with us. He has earned and deserves all our respect. Rick, if you don't believe in Canslim and can't treat people with respect, then please leave this group. In any case, I believe you owe Tom an apology. Mike > From: "Rick Miller" > To: > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] SFDS > Date: Sat, 5 Apr 1997 18:36:00 -0600 > Reply-to: canslim@mail.xmission.com > Tom: > > Based on your comments and your tone, you obviously think you know more > than anyone else about canslim, and you are not open to any other methods. > Who gave you the right to force anyone out of a discussion group. Barrons > is not in your class? You must be something. We should all bow down to > you oh guru of all investment knowledge. You said you were disgusted and > bored with the entire discussion? Maybe because you were not the "expert" > giving all the advice, now you are bored? > Apparantly, only you know what REALLY goes on in the stock market? Get > real! > You said you are here to help those who are willing to learn (who made you > professor of canslim?) and then you say this is not a place for free > training? Excuse me, but do you own the canslim forum? Who are YOU?? > Maybe the group should split off: ones who want to learn something and have > some fun doing it even if it means giving up some of their own cherished > opinions which may indeed be fallacious and the other group of old, cranky, > arrogant know-it-alls who worship canslim. > ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Brenda" Subject: [CANSLIM] C O N T E S T Date: 05 Apr 1997 20:27:49 -0600 OK group! We haven't had this much excitement since...... (best I can remember it was some little ole flim-flam Canadian mining stock). Hopefully, we have gotten through that one. It seems that some WANT a contest. Some do not. Some think it would be fun, some do not. Some don't want to have to read through all the contest mail, some would love to. Can we come to some sort of truce. How about this. Of course my first choice would be to set up a separate news group and call it contest. Being as I do not know how to do that how about this as an alternative. If you are interested in a contest, want to talk about a contest, want to enter, play, learn, grow, discuss, argue, or whatever in reference to the contest and which is better just ALWAYS put the subject of your post as CONTEST. Then those who are not interested can always just skip it. Fair? However, I am reminded of an experience I had at the check out counter at a motel a few years ago. There was an elderly couple in front of me checking out DEMANDING they not be charged for the room. The reason being is that the television set had dirty ole x-rated movies on it and they stayed on ALL NIGHT and they were not able to get a wink of sleep. They found it disgusting that an establishment would have such. And a public place. Guess their set was a little different than mine. Mine had both a channel selector knob and an OFF switch. Once again, just an idea that "might" work. BUT regardless, let us try not to flame one another, throw insults, challenge others personal beliefs, etc. I am here to learn and do not mind one bit sharing anything that I find. We should ALL be able to profit from this group. Let's try to do that. OK. Thanks. James ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Brenda" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Date: 05 Apr 1997 20:38:27 -0600 O.K. Rick, I've just been told I'm "grounded" from the canslim list for three days, AGAIN!!!! I was "told" I was wrong and I should apologize... Here goes: I apologize for my outburst... I was wr...wr...wr...wr...wr...wr... Oh well.....you get the message........... Brenda here again... ---------- > From: Rick Miller > To: canslim@mail.xmission.com > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] SFDS > Date: Saturday, April 05, 1997 8:06 PM > > Brenda: > If you read Tom's comments carefully, you will understand the condescending > tone he uses. Also, he belittles others who had a question about an > article in Barrons(not my question). There are people in this discussion > group who are sincerely interested in the canslim method, as I am, but who > would also like to confirm their belief that it is the best method. What > other way do you know of to test the validity of something other than to > place it under the most challenging scrutiny and test conditions? That's > all I am suggesting. Others from this group have written me privately and > they think a contest of some kind would not only be fun, but would confirm > their BELIEF in canslim. If you are totally sold on canslim to the point > of not even considering to test its validity, then I think you, like Tom, > should just ignore the testing and contest that others in this group would > like to perform. I prefer to keep my mind open and not to think in either > extreme: Irrational gullibility on the one hand, or irrational scepticism > on the other. By the way, Brenda, there was no disagreement on any issue > that I had with Tom. I was just commenting on his attitude concerning the > discussion others and myself were having about the possibility of a contest > of some kind. Just because Tom thinks it's a bad idea (or you for that > matter) does not in and of itself make it irrelevant to this group. > Further, I do not claim to have any answers about how to invest as does > Tom, I am just seeking truth. I do believe that something can be learned > if it is done right. And although I have read O'Neil's book and I have > picked stocks based on canslim and want to learn more about canslim, I am > not yet convinced that it is the best method. Maybe someday I will, but > until then I remain in a questioning mode and will challenge any method > until it survives to my satisfaction the test of scrutiny. > > Respectfully, > > Rick > > > > > > > ---------- > > From: Brenda > > To: canslim@mail.xmission.com > > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] SFDS > > Date: Saturday, April 05, 1997 7:19 PM > > > > Brenda here: > > I couldn't resist this one........Get a grip, Rick!!!!!! > > This IS a canslim discussion list.....right or wrong? > > Furthermore, your attack on Tom........he thinks he knows more than > anyone > > else?????? Why do you say that? Because he didn't agree with you? I > > know, yeah, yeah, yeah.........RICK: THE ONE AND ONLY 'TRUE' > > GURU...............NOT!!!!! > > > > ---------- > > > From: Rick Miller > > > To: canslim@mail.xmission.com > > > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] SFDS > > > Date: Saturday, April 05, 1997 6:36 PM > > > > > > Tom: > > > > > > Based on your comments and your tone, you obviously think you know more > > > than anyone else about canslim, and you are not open to any other > > methods. > > > Who gave you the right to force anyone out of a discussion group. > > Barrons > > > is not in your class? You must be something. We should all bow down > to > > > you oh guru of all investment knowledge. You said you were disgusted > and > > > bored with the entire discussion? Maybe because you were not the > > "expert" > > > giving all the advice, now you are bored? > > > Apparantly, only you know what REALLY goes on in the stock market? Get > > > real! > > > You said you are here to help those who are willing to learn (who made > > you > > > professor of canslim?) and then you say this is not a place for free > > > training? Excuse me, but do you own the canslim forum? Who are YOU?? > > > Maybe the group should split off: ones who want to learn something and > > have > > > some fun doing it even if it means giving up some of their own > cherished > > > opinions which may indeed be fallacious and the other group of old, > > cranky, > > > arrogant know-it-alls who worship canslim. > > > > > > ---------- > > > > From: Tom Worley > > > > To: canslim@mail.xmission.com > > > > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] SFDS > > > > Date: Saturday, April 05, 1997 5:37 PM > > > > > > > > Concur, James > > > > I have adopted a personal policy, as of today and a result of disgust > > > > and boredom with this entire discussion, that I will no longer offer > > > > any comments or feedback on any stock picks that were not posted with > > > > supporting CANSLIM basis. If nothing else, this will force those that > > > > don't yet understand the philosophy to either buy and read the book > or > > > > get out of the group. This is not a place for free training, if you > > > > don't want to do the homework, go try Motley Fools or other "free" > > > > stock picking sites. This doesn't mean I won't go look at some picks, > I > > > > just won't share what I learn with the group as I did, for example, > > > > with Miller Herman (credit to James). > > > > I have proven time after time that I am willing to help those who are > > > > here to learn and willing to work. I have a lot of knowledge and > > > > experience, not only about CANSLIM but about the stock market and > what > > > > moves it and how broker dealers work. I will continue to share that > > > > with this group, if this group gets back on track. Lately, when we > > > > could have been having some good discussions about "M" for example, > > > > there has been only silence. > > > > > > > > I have obviously reduced my "Market Comments" frequency, not because > I > > > > am doing anything different, but because there has been ZERO comments > > > > or feedback, other than one referencing a Barrons article, to which I > > > > took offense and haven't even bothered reading (toilet paper is > usually > > > > more attractive to me than Barron's). I feel like I am posting to a > > > > black hole, and this weekend's BS is only confirming that. > Nonetheless, > > > > I am still working my eleven or so hours a day, then spending two or > > > > three more hours reviewing what REALLY went on that day in the > market, > > > > the difference is that I am not bothering to type up my thoughts and > > > > findings unless I see something major and compelling. > > > > > > > > Those that have been in this group for some time know I don't usually > > > > get this riled. Maybe it's time to split this group into those that > > > > want to play games, but don't really believe in CANSLIM or trust it > > > > with real money, and those who are trying to cash in on the best > system > > > > they have found? > > > > > > > > ---------- > > > > > From: Brenda > > > > > To: canslim > > > > > Subject: [CANSLIM] SFDS > > > > > Date: Saturday, April 05, 1997 4:34 PM > > > > > > > > > > Ok you CANSLIMrs. Put this one through the ringer. Came right out > of > > > > > Friday's Week-End Review. Does it fit the mold? Did it jump too > high? > > > > > Beyond the 5% buy range? > > > > > Earlier today I read a post of somebody wanting something > free. > > > > > Nothing wrong with that I guess, but everytime I hear free it > reminds > > > > me of > > > > > > > > > However, what is amazing that a simply written book for the average > > > > > investor for under $20, a newspaper for about a dollar a day, an > > > > average > > > > > mind, and a little time can turn the Greek into a first grade > primer > > > > and > > > > > also a GOLD MINE. Just a thought. Thanks in advance to any of you > who > > > > offer > > > > > your opinion. > > > > > James ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Rick Miller" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Rick-Canslim no workee? Date: 05 Apr 1997 21:01:13 -0600 Pat: From your comments it seems that you wouldn't change your mind about canslim even if it proved to be an inferior method. You may be convinced that it works above all other methods, but I am not. And there is nothing wrong with attempting to find the truth about canslim. Again, if I ever do learn that it is the best method, I will be a strong proponent who will be able to rationally explain and prove that it works. Something I haven't seen much of so far. Sincerely, Rick ---------- > From: pwahl@postoffice.worldnet.att.net > To: canslim@mail.xmission.com > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Rick-Canslim no workee? > Date: Saturday, April 05, 1997 7:57 PM > > > From: "Rick Miller" > > > Friday at 757.90. In fact, I challenge any canslimer to pick ten stocks > > and prove to me it can beat the S&P 500 over the period of your choice. > > You must also show me how each stock selected meets the canslim > > requirement. Let's have some fun! > > Gee, sounds like a blast. As if people don't have enough to do in > trying to pick stocks for actual investing purposes, you > are asking them to spend time trying to pick stocks for some sort of > contest in order to prove to you that CANSLIM is a legitimate > approach to investing. If anyone falls for this flame-bait, I hope > you will keep it private. I get enough email without trying to slog > through that sort of junk. > > > > Patrick Wahl ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Rick Miller" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] SFDS Date: 05 Apr 1997 21:10:34 -0600 Mike: If you read Tom's comments carefully you will see that it was he who was slamming others, not me. I was just commenting on his tone. Criticizing canslim makes you uncomfortable does it? Tom may well indeed be a great source of information, but he does not have the right to tell others in this group what they can and cannot talk about, nor do you. If you don't like it that others want to put your canslim god up to scrutiny, you can delete the files. I'll be watching for your posts and maybe I can learn from someone so committed to canslim. Respectfully, Rick ---------- > From: Mike Artobello > To: canslim@mail.xmission.com > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] SFDS > Date: Saturday, April 05, 1997 8:11 PM > > OK, I for one have had enough of Rick Miller. I've been listening to > him critize Canslim ever since he joined the group and now this > attack on Tom. Anyone who has been on this list for any length of > time knows that Tom has always been very helpful and kind enough to > share his market experience with us. He has earned and deserves all > our respect. Rick, if you don't believe in Canslim and can't treat > people with respect, then please leave this group. In any case, I > believe you owe Tom an apology. > > Mike > > > > > From: "Rick Miller" > > To: > > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] SFDS > > Date: Sat, 5 Apr 1997 18:36:00 -0600 > > Reply-to: canslim@mail.xmission.com > > > Tom: > > > > Based on your comments and your tone, you obviously think you know more > > than anyone else about canslim, and you are not open to any other methods. > > Who gave you the right to force anyone out of a discussion group. Barrons > > is not in your class? You must be something. We should all bow down to > > you oh guru of all investment knowledge. You said you were disgusted and > > bored with the entire discussion? Maybe because you were not the "expert" > > giving all the advice, now you are bored? > > Apparantly, only you know what REALLY goes on in the stock market? Get > > real! > > You said you are here to help those who are willing to learn (who made you > > professor of canslim?) and then you say this is not a place for free > > training? Excuse me, but do you own the canslim forum? Who are YOU?? > > Maybe the group should split off: ones who want to learn something and have > > some fun doing it even if it means giving up some of their own cherished > > opinions which may indeed be fallacious and the other group of old, cranky, > > arrogant know-it-alls who worship canslim. > > ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Rick Miller" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Date: 05 Apr 1997 21:13:34 -0600 Brenda: No need to apologize, I took no offense. I'm here to learn. Rick ---------- > From: Brenda > To: canslim@mail.xmission.com > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] > Date: Saturday, April 05, 1997 8:38 PM > > O.K. Rick, I've just been told I'm "grounded" from the canslim list for > three days, AGAIN!!!! I was "told" I was wrong and I should apologize... > > > Here goes: I apologize for my outburst... I was > wr...wr...wr...wr...wr...wr... Oh well.....you get the > message........... > > Brenda here again... > ---------- > > From: Rick Miller > > To: canslim@mail.xmission.com > > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] SFDS > > Date: Saturday, April 05, 1997 8:06 PM > > > > Brenda: > > If you read Tom's comments carefully, you will understand the > condescending > > tone he uses. Also, he belittles others who had a question about an > > article in Barrons(not my question). There are people in this discussion > > group who are sincerely interested in the canslim method, as I am, but > who > > would also like to confirm their belief that it is the best method. What > > other way do you know of to test the validity of something other than to > > place it under the most challenging scrutiny and test conditions? > That's > > all I am suggesting. Others from this group have written me privately > and > > they think a contest of some kind would not only be fun, but would > confirm > > their BELIEF in canslim. If you are totally sold on canslim to the point > > of not even considering to test its validity, then I think you, like Tom, > > should just ignore the testing and contest that others in this group > would > > like to perform. I prefer to keep my mind open and not to think in > either > > extreme: Irrational gullibility on the one hand, or irrational > scepticism > > on the other. By the way, Brenda, there was no disagreement on any issue > > that I had with Tom. I was just commenting on his attitude concerning > the > > discussion others and myself were having about the possibility of a > contest > > of some kind. Just because Tom thinks it's a bad idea (or you for that > > matter) does not in and of itself make it irrelevant to this group. > > Further, I do not claim to have any answers about how to invest as does > > Tom, I am just seeking truth. I do believe that something can be learned > > if it is done right. And although I have read O'Neil's book and I have > > picked stocks based on canslim and want to learn more about canslim, I am > > not yet convinced that it is the best method. Maybe someday I will, but > > until then I remain in a questioning mode and will challenge any method > > until it survives to my satisfaction the test of scrutiny. > > > > Respectfully, > > > > Rick > > > > > > > > > > > > > > ---------- > > > From: Brenda > > > To: canslim@mail.xmission.com > > > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] SFDS > > > Date: Saturday, April 05, 1997 7:19 PM > > > > > > Brenda here: > > > I couldn't resist this one........Get a grip, Rick!!!!!! > > > This IS a canslim discussion list.....right or wrong? > > > Furthermore, your attack on Tom........he thinks he knows more than > > anyone > > > else?????? Why do you say that? Because he didn't agree with you? I > > > know, yeah, yeah, yeah.........RICK: THE ONE AND ONLY 'TRUE' > > > GURU...............NOT!!!!! > > > > > > ---------- > > > > From: Rick Miller > > > > To: canslim@mail.xmission.com > > > > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] SFDS > > > > Date: Saturday, April 05, 1997 6:36 PM > > > > > > > > Tom: > > > > > > > > Based on your comments and your tone, you obviously think you know > more > > > > than anyone else about canslim, and you are not open to any other > > > methods. > > > > Who gave you the right to force anyone out of a discussion group. > > > Barrons > > > > is not in your class? You must be something. We should all bow down > > to > > > > you oh guru of all investment knowledge. You said you were disgusted > > and > > > > bored with the entire discussion? Maybe because you were not the > > > "expert" > > > > giving all the advice, now you are bored? > > > > Apparantly, only you know what REALLY goes on in the stock market? > Get > > > > real! > > > > You said you are here to help those who are willing to learn (who > made > > > you > > > > professor of canslim?) and then you say this is not a place for free > > > > training? Excuse me, but do you own the canslim forum? Who are > YOU?? > > > > Maybe the group should split off: ones who want to learn something > and > > > have > > > > some fun doing it even if it means giving up some of their own > > cherished > > > > opinions which may indeed be fallacious and the other group of old, > > > cranky, > > > > arrogant know-it-alls who worship canslim. > > > > > > > > ---------- > > > > > From: Tom Worley > > > > > To: canslim@mail.xmission.com > > > > > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] SFDS > > > > > Date: Saturday, April 05, 1997 5:37 PM > > > > > > > > > > Concur, James > > > > > I have adopted a personal policy, as of today and a result of > disgust > > > > > and boredom with this entire discussion, that I will no longer > offer > > > > > any comments or feedback on any stock picks that were not posted > with > > > > > supporting CANSLIM basis. If nothing else, this will force those > that > > > > > don't yet understand the philosophy to either buy and read the book > > or > > > > > get out of the group. This is not a place for free training, if you > > > > > don't want to do the homework, go try Motley Fools or other "free" > > > > > stock picking sites. This doesn't mean I won't go look at some > picks, > > I > > > > > just won't share what I learn with the group as I did, for example, > > > > > with Miller Herman (credit to James). > > > > > I have proven time after time that I am willing to help those who > are > > > > > here to learn and willing to work. I have a lot of knowledge and > > > > > experience, not only about CANSLIM but about the stock market and > > what > > > > > moves it and how broker dealers work. I will continue to share that > > > > > with this group, if this group gets back on track. Lately, when we > > > > > could have been having some good discussions about "M" for example, > > > > > there has been only silence. > > > > > > > > > > I have obviously reduced my "Market Comments" frequency, not > because > > I > > > > > am doing anything different, but because there has been ZERO > comments > > > > > or feedback, other than one referencing a Barrons article, to which > I > > > > > took offense and haven't even bothered reading (toilet paper is > > usually > > > > > more attractive to me than Barron's). I feel like I am posting to a > > > > > black hole, and this weekend's BS is only confirming that. > > Nonetheless, > > > > > I am still working my eleven or so hours a day, then spending two > or > > > > > three more hours reviewing what REALLY went on that day in the > > market, > > > > > the difference is that I am not bothering to type up my thoughts > and > > > > > findings unless I see something major and compelling. > > > > > > > > > > Those that have been in this group for some time know I don't > usually > > > > > get this riled. Maybe it's time to split this group into those that > > > > > want to play games, but don't really believe in CANSLIM or trust it > > > > > with real money, and those who are trying to cash in on the best > > system > > > > > they have found? > > > > > > > > > > ---------- > > > > > > From: Brenda > > > > > > To: canslim > > > > > > Subject: [CANSLIM] SFDS > > > > > > Date: Saturday, April 05, 1997 4:34 PM > > > > > > > > > > > > Ok you CANSLIMrs. Put this one through the ringer. Came right out > > of > > > > > > Friday's Week-End Review. Does it fit the mold? Did it jump too > > high? > > > > > > Beyond the 5% buy range? > > > > > > Earlier today I read a post of somebody wanting something > > free. > > > > > > Nothing wrong with that I guess, but everytime I hear free it > > reminds > > > > > me of > > > > > > > > > > > However, what is amazing that a simply written book for the > average > > > > > > investor for under $20, a newspaper for about a dollar a day, an > > > > > average > > > > > > mind, and a little time can turn the Greek into a first grade > > primer > > > > > and > > > > > > also a GOLD MINE. Just a thought. Thanks in advance to any of you > > who > > > > > offer > > > > > > your opinion. > > > > > > James ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Mike Artobello" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] SFDS Date: 05 Apr 1997 19:31:15 -0800 Rick, You're right! You do have the right to say anything you want, but I'm not going to get into a flaming match with you. I don't like your attitude or tone and I don't have to listen to it. I'll be deleting all your posts in the future and this will be my last response to you. Goodbye! Mike > From: "Rick Miller" > To: > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] SFDS > Date: Sat, 5 Apr 1997 21:10:34 -0600 > Reply-to: canslim@mail.xmission.com > Mike: > > If you read Tom's comments carefully you will see that it was he who was > slamming others, not me. I was just commenting on his tone. Criticizing > canslim makes you uncomfortable does it? Tom may well indeed be a great > source of information, but he does not have the right to tell others in > this group what they can and cannot talk about, nor do you. If you don't > like it that others want to put your canslim god up to scrutiny, you can > delete the files. I'll be watching for your posts and maybe I can learn > from someone so committed to canslim. > > Respectfully, > > Rick > > ---------- > > From: Mike Artobello > > To: canslim@mail.xmission.com > > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] SFDS > > Date: Saturday, April 05, 1997 8:11 PM > > > > OK, I for one have had enough of Rick Miller. I've been listening to > > him critize Canslim ever since he joined the group and now this > > attack on Tom. Anyone who has been on this list for any length of > > time knows that Tom has always been very helpful and kind enough to > > share his market experience with us. He has earned and deserves all > > our respect. Rick, if you don't believe in Canslim and can't treat > > people with respect, then please leave this group. In any case, I > > believe you owe Tom an apology. > > > > Mike > > > > > > > > > From: "Rick Miller" > > > To: > > > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] SFDS > > > Date: Sat, 5 Apr 1997 18:36:00 -0600 > > > Reply-to: canslim@mail.xmission.com > > > > > Tom: > > > > > > Based on your comments and your tone, you obviously think you know more > > > than anyone else about canslim, and you are not open to any other > methods. > > > Who gave you the right to force anyone out of a discussion group. > Barrons > > > is not in your class? You must be something. We should all bow down > to > > > you oh guru of all investment knowledge. You said you were disgusted > and > > > bored with the entire discussion? Maybe because you were not the > "expert" > > > giving all the advice, now you are bored? > > > Apparantly, only you know what REALLY goes on in the stock market? Get > > > real! > > > You said you are here to help those who are willing to learn (who made > you > > > professor of canslim?) and then you say this is not a place for free > > > training? Excuse me, but do you own the canslim forum? Who are YOU?? > > > Maybe the group should split off: ones who want to learn something and > have > > > some fun doing it even if it means giving up some of their own > cherished > > > opinions which may indeed be fallacious and the other group of old, > cranky, > > > arrogant know-it-alls who worship canslim. > > > > > ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Zoran Mitrovski Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Rick-Canslim no workee? Date: 05 Apr 1997 22:59:25 -0500 (EST) Rick, your posts are full up to their ears with false dichotomies. There is no such thing as "the best method" for trading the markets, and a contest won't prove anything. I myself, take O'Neil's writings with a grain of salt but I also find nuggets that always bring new value to the way I think. The world is not all black and white the way you see it and this group is not about deciding whether to kiss O'Neil's feet OR to throw both him and his method into the dumpster. There is no such thing as "the truth about canlim" hence IMHO you will never be able to find it. I honestly cannot see what your motivations behind causing all this disturbance in the group are, but I have a feeling that many of us that have been hanging out here a little longer than you, don't appreciate it. I have been on the Net for quite some time now, and the one thing I like THE MOST about this group was the comforting lack of genitalia-comparing challenges of the sort that you introduced yourself with. Rest assured that there will be enough people here to keep it that way. As for the contest, I am against it, but you and anyone interested are welcome to sign up for the FinalBell or some other investing contests on the WWW, and keep us all informed about your progress once a week or so. That way you would both solve the logistics problem for organizing your contest, and free this group from the "I'm the best and you all suck" posts that it is bound to cause. If you want to gain some acceptance and understanding for your contributions to this group, I suggest you change your attitude a bit. (Not a demand, just a suggestion) I had the pleasure to enjoy Tom's friendship and contributions in this group and I am quite sure that many of us here share that sentiment. Cheers, Zoran > Pat: > > >From your comments it seems that you wouldn't change your mind about > canslim even if it proved to be an inferior method. You may be convinced > that it works above all other methods, but I am not. And there is nothing > wrong with attempting to find the truth about canslim. Again, if I ever do > learn that it is the best method, I will be a strong proponent who will be > able to rationally explain and prove that it works. Something I haven't > seen much of so far. > > Sincerely, > > Rick ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Rick Miller" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] SFDS Date: 05 Apr 1997 22:00:04 -0600 Mike: I am sorry you feel that way. I did not mean to be disrespectful to you and am sorry you took it that way. But if you are upset because I challenge canslim, that's beyond my control. Good investing! Rick ---------- > From: Mike Artobello > To: canslim@mail.xmission.com > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] SFDS > Date: Saturday, April 05, 1997 9:31 PM > > Rick, > > You're right! You do have the right to say anything you want, but I'm > not going to get into a flaming match with you. I don't like your > attitude or tone and I don't have to listen to it. I'll be deleting all your > posts in the future and this will be my last response to you. > > Goodbye! > > Mike > > > From: "Rick Miller" > > To: > > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] SFDS > > Date: Sat, 5 Apr 1997 21:10:34 -0600 > > Reply-to: canslim@mail.xmission.com > > > Mike: > > > > If you read Tom's comments carefully you will see that it was he who was > > slamming others, not me. I was just commenting on his tone. Criticizing > > canslim makes you uncomfortable does it? Tom may well indeed be a great > > source of information, but he does not have the right to tell others in > > this group what they can and cannot talk about, nor do you. If you don't > > like it that others want to put your canslim god up to scrutiny, you can > > delete the files. I'll be watching for your posts and maybe I can learn > > from someone so committed to canslim. > > > > Respectfully, > > > > Rick > > > > ---------- > > > From: Mike Artobello > > > To: canslim@mail.xmission.com > > > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] SFDS > > > Date: Saturday, April 05, 1997 8:11 PM > > > > > > OK, I for one have had enough of Rick Miller. I've been listening to > > > him critize Canslim ever since he joined the group and now this > > > attack on Tom. Anyone who has been on this list for any length of > > > time knows that Tom has always been very helpful and kind enough to > > > share his market experience with us. He has earned and deserves all > > > our respect. Rick, if you don't believe in Canslim and can't treat > > > people with respect, then please leave this group. In any case, I > > > believe you owe Tom an apology. > > > > > > Mike > > > > > > > > > > > > > From: "Rick Miller" > > > > To: > > > > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] SFDS > > > > Date: Sat, 5 Apr 1997 18:36:00 -0600 > > > > Reply-to: canslim@mail.xmission.com > > > > > > > Tom: > > > > > > > > Based on your comments and your tone, you obviously think you know more > > > > than anyone else about canslim, and you are not open to any other > > methods. > > > > Who gave you the right to force anyone out of a discussion group. > > Barrons > > > > is not in your class? You must be something. We should all bow down > > to > > > > you oh guru of all investment knowledge. You said you were disgusted > > and > > > > bored with the entire discussion? Maybe because you were not the > > "expert" > > > > giving all the advice, now you are bored? > > > > Apparantly, only you know what REALLY goes on in the stock market? Get > > > > real! > > > > You said you are here to help those who are willing to learn (who made > > you > > > > professor of canslim?) and then you say this is not a place for free > > > > training? Excuse me, but do you own the canslim forum? Who are YOU?? > > > > Maybe the group should split off: ones who want to learn something and > > have > > > > some fun doing it even if it means giving up some of their own > > cherished > > > > opinions which may indeed be fallacious and the other group of old, > > cranky, > > > > arrogant know-it-alls who worship canslim. > > > > > > > > ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Rick Miller" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Rick-Canslim no workee? Date: 05 Apr 1997 22:45:01 -0600 Zoran: I did not intend to cause a disturbance. I will just lay low and read and listen and learn and if I have anything to offer, I'll give it IMHO. The challenge I made earlier was not to insult anyone or play useless games. Investing is a serious business and one can lose their backside if they don't know what they are doing. In the spirit of fun, I may have been overzealous, but it was only to find the truth, which I do believe one can find. (about canslim or any other theory) I am not sure exactly what the direction of the group is and maybe testing canslim is not appropriate to what your goals are for having this group. You are probably right that such a test or contest may be better done on another site, although I still believe that it would be helpful for an adherent to canslim to know what the success rate is- that being determined by dicussion and analysis among the adherents. But I do not wish to dictate the direction of this group, so I will listen and learn. Thank you for your note. Rick ---------- > From: Zoran Mitrovski > To: canslim@mail.xmission.com > Cc: Zoran Mitrovski > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Rick-Canslim no workee? > Date: Saturday, April 05, 1997 9:59 PM > > Rick, your posts are full up to their ears with false dichotomies. > There is no such thing as "the best method" for trading the > markets, and a contest won't prove anything. I myself, take > O'Neil's writings with a grain of salt but I also find > nuggets that always bring new value to the way I think. The world > is not all black and white the way you see it and this group is > not about deciding whether to kiss O'Neil's feet OR to throw both > him and his method into the dumpster. There is no such thing > as "the truth about canlim" hence IMHO you will never be > able to find it. > > I honestly cannot see what your motivations behind causing > all this disturbance in the group are, but I have a feeling > that many of us that have been hanging out here a little > longer than you, don't appreciate it. I have been on the Net > for quite some time now, and the one thing I like THE MOST > about this group was the comforting lack of genitalia-comparing > challenges of the sort that you introduced yourself with. > Rest assured that there will be enough people here > to keep it that way. > > As for the contest, I am against it, but you and anyone > interested are welcome to sign up for the FinalBell or some > other investing contests on the WWW, and keep us all informed > about your progress once a week or so. That way you would > both solve the logistics problem for organizing your contest, > and free this group from the "I'm the best and you all suck" > posts that it is bound to cause. > > If you want to gain some acceptance and understanding for > your contributions to this group, I suggest you change > your attitude a bit. (Not a demand, just a suggestion) > I had the pleasure to enjoy Tom's friendship and > contributions in this group and I am quite sure > that many of us here share that sentiment. > > Cheers, > Zoran > > > Pat: > > > > >From your comments it seems that you wouldn't change your mind about > > canslim even if it proved to be an inferior method. You may be convinced > > that it works above all other methods, but I am not. And there is nothing > > wrong with attempting to find the truth about canslim. Again, if I ever do > > learn that it is the best method, I will be a strong proponent who will be > > able to rationally explain and prove that it works. Something I haven't > > seen much of so far. > > > > Sincerely, > > > > Rick > > > > > ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Michael R. Jeffers" Subject: [CANSLIM] CANSLIM - The Daytime Soap Date: 05 Apr 1997 22:12:28 Hey All You Fellow Lurkers, I don't know about you, but all of this has really put a smile on my face. As if we would throw out a set of rules we use real money on simply because one person's paper trades bet those rules. And he uses his "gut" feelings??? Gee, I don't know. . . pretty hard to graph and set trend lines to that indicator. Oh yeah, sincere thanks to Tom and James for MLHR. Also thanks to James (I think) for CEBC and Jeff (I think again) for SNM. Haven't bought yet, but will a first bell Monday Morn. I know that I should provide some picks myself, but seeing as how the past ones I offered stop looking good as soon as I pushed the "Send" button on my E-Mail service, I wait and learn a bit more. Just wanted to show politeness and to say that I couldn't do as much as I do with out you. (That could be a good song title; feel free to use it, I won't copywrite it) At 10:00 PM 4/5/97 -0600, you wrote: >Mike: > >I am sorry you feel that way. I did not mean to be disrespectful to you >and am sorry you took it that way. But if you are upset because I >challenge canslim, that's beyond my control. Good investing! > >Rick > >---------- >> From: Mike Artobello >> To: canslim@mail.xmission.com >> Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] SFDS >> Date: Saturday, April 05, 1997 9:31 PM >> >> Rick, >> >> You're right! You do have the right to say anything you want, but I'm >> not going to get into a flaming match with you. I don't like your >> attitude or tone and I don't have to listen to it. I'll be deleting all >your >> posts in the future and this will be my last response to you. >> >> Goodbye! >> >> Mike >> >> > From: "Rick Miller" >> > To: >> > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] SFDS >> > Date: Sat, 5 Apr 1997 21:10:34 -0600 >> > Reply-to: canslim@mail.xmission.com >> >> > Mike: >> > >> > If you read Tom's comments carefully you will see that it was he who >was >> > slamming others, not me. I was just commenting on his tone. >Criticizing >> > canslim makes you uncomfortable does it? Tom may well indeed be a >great >> > source of information, but he does not have the right to tell others >in >> > this group what they can and cannot talk about, nor do you. If you >don't >> > like it that others want to put your canslim god up to scrutiny, you >can >> > delete the files. I'll be watching for your posts and maybe I can >learn >> > from someone so committed to canslim. >> > >> > Respectfully, >> > >> > Rick >> > >> > ---------- >> > > From: Mike Artobello >> > > To: canslim@mail.xmission.com >> > > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] SFDS >> > > Date: Saturday, April 05, 1997 8:11 PM >> > > >> > > OK, I for one have had enough of Rick Miller. I've been listening to >> > > him critize Canslim ever since he joined the group and now this >> > > attack on Tom. Anyone who has been on this list for any length of >> > > time knows that Tom has always been very helpful and kind enough to >> > > share his market experience with us. He has earned and deserves all >> > > our respect. Rick, if you don't believe in Canslim and can't treat >> > > people with respect, then please leave this group. In any case, I >> > > believe you owe Tom an apology. >> > > >> > > Mike >> > > >> > > >> > > >> > > > From: "Rick Miller" >> > > > To: >> > > > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] SFDS >> > > > Date: Sat, 5 Apr 1997 18:36:00 -0600 >> > > > Reply-to: canslim@mail.xmission.com >> > > >> > > > Tom: >> > > > >> > > > Based on your comments and your tone, you obviously think you know >more >> > > > than anyone else about canslim, and you are not open to any other >> > methods. >> > > > Who gave you the right to force anyone out of a discussion group. >> > Barrons >> > > > is not in your class? You must be something. We should all bow >down >> > to >> > > > you oh guru of all investment knowledge. You said you were >disgusted >> > and >> > > > bored with the entire discussion? Maybe because you were not the >> > "expert" >> > > > giving all the advice, now you are bored? >> > > > Apparantly, only you know what REALLY goes on in the stock market? >Get >> > > > real! >> > > > You said you are here to help those who are willing to learn (who >made >> > you >> > > > professor of canslim?) and then you say this is not a place for >free >> > > > training? Excuse me, but do you own the canslim forum? Who are >YOU?? >> > > > Maybe the group should split off: ones who want to learn something >and >> > have >> > > > some fun doing it even if it means giving up some of their own >> > cherished >> > > > opinions which may indeed be fallacious and the other group of old, >> > cranky, >> > > > arrogant know-it-alls who worship canslim. >> > > > >> > >> > > > Just Little 'Ole Me, Michael R. Jeffers ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Michael A Langston Subject: re: [CANSLIM] Rick-Canslim no workee? Date: 06 Apr 1997 03:09:59 -0400 i bring up my workstation, get a helluva long list of mail, a boatload of it from this group, and guess what...for all practical purposes not one piece of it is about playing possible CANSLIM pix at monday's open instead, i find: (1) suggestions that we need to run contests with phony money (oh puh-lease, every junior high does that) (2) debates about whether canslim works (that's a swell endeavor, each of us must decide for ourself dependent on market conditions -- but that's not to the best of my knowledge the purpose of this group) (3) flame fests and derogatory personal remarks directed at member(s) in good standing (didn't we get over that in kindergarten...sadly, i guess not) as if i need to say it, here's my two cents: KNOCK IT OFF -- especially you rick miller, i find your comments way out of line -- i for one think tom, zoran, mike a, patrick and others have shown restraint in telling you to clean up your act -- i'm trying to show restraint too, although why you needed telling in the first place is beyond me -- i find it very difficult to chalk up your remarks merely to the vagaries of email of course i am but one of many group members, and this is merely MHO -- if this group genuinely wants to start creating a lot of traffic about contests, trading debates and personal attacks, then so be it -- but i really don't expect that many experienced canslimmers would wanna take part mike ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Michael A Langston Subject: re: [CANSLIM] SFDS Date: 06 Apr 1997 03:18:22 -0400 james-brenda asks: > Ok you CANSLIMrs. Put this one through the ringer. Came right out of > Friday's Week-End Review. Does it fit the mold? Did it jump too high? IMHO, yes -- one like this is best played off free parking, which was back at around 36 btw, in a good HGS market free-parking plays can be great (though i don't recall o'neil having much to say about them) -- in a market like this, they are dangerous, with maybe one bouncing off the 50 for every two-three-more that drive right through it on the way down mike ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Michael A Langston Subject: re: [CANSLIM] CANSLIM - The Daytime Soap Date: 06 Apr 1997 03:27:50 -0400 michael j writes: > Oh yeah, sincere thanks to Tom and James for MLHR. Also thanks to > James (I think) for CEBC and Jeff (I think again) for SNM. Haven't > bought yet, but will a first bell Monday Morn. so that means you're bullish on the prospects of HGS here -- very good, i think this group has had a rather bearish tone (but not undeservedly so) for that sector for some time one little note on CEBC: not too many players would go long a bank stock right after the fed starts raising rates -- so i take this to mean that you think the long bond (whose rate is of course not set by the fed) is now very near the top of its trading range could well be, i think it's a tough call -- very interesting mike ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Dean Edwards" Subject: Fw: [CANSLIM] Date: 06 Apr 1997 20:40:00 +1200 I've never laugh so much :-) This is better then any comedy on TV. A contest or no contest at least people are coming out of the woodwork and discussing it. Hopefully no egos are gonna get bruised in the process of the debate. ---------- > From: Brenda > To: canslim@mail.xmission.com > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] > Date: Sunday, April 06, 1997 2:38 PM > > O.K. Rick, I've just been told I'm "grounded" from the canslim list for > three days, AGAIN!!!! I was "told" I was wrong and I should apologize... > > > Here goes: I apologize for my outburst... I was > wr...wr...wr...wr...wr...wr... Oh well.....you get the > message........... > > Brenda here again... > ---------- > > From: Rick Miller > > To: canslim@mail.xmission.com > > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] SFDS > > Date: Saturday, April 05, 1997 8:06 PM > > > > Brenda: > > If you read Tom's comments carefully, you will understand the > condescending > > tone he uses. Also, he belittles others who had a question about an > > article in Barrons(not my question). There are people in this discussion > > group who are sincerely interested in the canslim method, as I am, but > who > > would also like to confirm their belief that it is the best method. What > > other way do you know of to test the validity of something other than to > > place it under the most challenging scrutiny and test conditions? > That's > > all I am suggesting. Others from this group have written me privately > and > > they think a contest of some kind would not only be fun, but would > confirm > > their BELIEF in canslim. If you are totally sold on canslim to the point > > of not even considering to test its validity, then I think you, like Tom, > > should just ignore the testing and contest that others in this group > would > > like to perform. I prefer to keep my mind open and not to think in > either > > extreme: Irrational gullibility on the one hand, or irrational > scepticism > > on the other. By the way, Brenda, there was no disagreement on any issue > > that I had with Tom. I was just commenting on his attitude concerning > the > > discussion others and myself were having about the possibility of a > contest > > of some kind. Just because Tom thinks it's a bad idea (or you for that > > matter) does not in and of itself make it irrelevant to this group. > > Further, I do not claim to have any answers about how to invest as does > > Tom, I am just seeking truth. I do believe that something can be learned > > if it is done right. And although I have read O'Neil's book and I have > > picked stocks based on canslim and want to learn more about canslim, I am > > not yet convinced that it is the best method. Maybe someday I will, but > > until then I remain in a questioning mode and will challenge any method > > until it survives to my satisfaction the test of scrutiny. > > > > Respectfully, > > > > Rick > > > > > > > > > > > > > > ---------- > > > From: Brenda > > > To: canslim@mail.xmission.com > > > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] SFDS > > > Date: Saturday, April 05, 1997 7:19 PM > > > > > > Brenda here: > > > I couldn't resist this one........Get a grip, Rick!!!!!! > > > This IS a canslim discussion list.....right or wrong? > > > Furthermore, your attack on Tom........he thinks he knows more than > > anyone > > > else?????? Why do you say that? Because he didn't agree with you? I > > > know, yeah, yeah, yeah.........RICK: THE ONE AND ONLY 'TRUE' > > > GURU...............NOT!!!!! > > > > > > ---------- > > > > From: Rick Miller > > > > To: canslim@mail.xmission.com > > > > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] SFDS > > > > Date: Saturday, April 05, 1997 6:36 PM > > > > > > > > Tom: > > > > > > > > Based on your comments and your tone, you obviously think you know > more > > > > than anyone else about canslim, and you are not open to any other > > > methods. > > > > Who gave you the right to force anyone out of a discussion group. > > > Barrons > > > > is not in your class? You must be something. We should all bow down > > to > > > > you oh guru of all investment knowledge. You said you were disgusted > > and > > > > bored with the entire discussion? Maybe because you were not the > > > "expert" > > > > giving all the advice, now you are bored? > > > > Apparantly, only you know what REALLY goes on in the stock market? > Get > > > > real! > > > > You said you are here to help those who are willing to learn (who > made > > > you > > > > professor of canslim?) and then you say this is not a place for free > > > > training? Excuse me, but do you own the canslim forum? Who are > YOU?? > > > > Maybe the group should split off: ones who want to learn something > and > > > have > > > > some fun doing it even if it means giving up some of their own > > cherished > > > > opinions which may indeed be fallacious and the other group of old, > > > cranky, > > > > arrogant know-it-alls who worship canslim. > > > > > > > > ---------- > > > > > From: Tom Worley > > > > > To: canslim@mail.xmission.com > > > > > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] SFDS > > > > > Date: Saturday, April 05, 1997 5:37 PM > > > > > > > > > > Concur, James > > > > > I have adopted a personal policy, as of today and a result of > disgust > > > > > and boredom with this entire discussion, that I will no longer > offer > > > > > any comments or feedback on any stock picks that were not posted > with > > > > > supporting CANSLIM basis. If nothing else, this will force those > that > > > > > don't yet understand the philosophy to either buy and read the book > > or > > > > > get out of the group. This is not a place for free training, if you > > > > > don't want to do the homework, go try Motley Fools or other "free" > > > > > stock picking sites. This doesn't mean I won't go look at some > picks, > > I > > > > > just won't share what I learn with the group as I did, for example, > > > > > with Miller Herman (credit to James). > > > > > I have proven time after time that I am willing to help those who > are > > > > > here to learn and willing to work. I have a lot of knowledge and > > > > > experience, not only about CANSLIM but about the stock market and > > what > > > > > moves it and how broker dealers work. I will continue to share that > > > > > with this group, if this group gets back on track. Lately, when we > > > > > could have been having some good discussions about "M" for example, > > > > > there has been only silence. > > > > > > > > > > I have obviously reduced my "Market Comments" frequency, not > because > > I > > > > > am doing anything different, but because there has been ZERO > comments > > > > > or feedback, other than one referencing a Barrons article, to which > I > > > > > took offense and haven't even bothered reading (toilet paper is > > usually > > > > > more attractive to me than Barron's). I feel like I am posting to a > > > > > black hole, and this weekend's BS is only confirming that. > > Nonetheless, > > > > > I am still working my eleven or so hours a day, then spending two > or > > > > > three more hours reviewing what REALLY went on that day in the > > market, > > > > > the difference is that I am not bothering to type up my thoughts > and > > > > > findings unless I see something major and compelling. > > > > > > > > > > Those that have been in this group for some time know I don't > usually > > > > > get this riled. Maybe it's time to split this group into those that > > > > > want to play games, but don't really believe in CANSLIM or trust it > > > > > with real money, and those who are trying to cash in on the best > > system > > > > > they have found? > > > > > > > > > > ---------- > > > > > > From: Brenda > > > > > > To: canslim > > > > > > Subject: [CANSLIM] SFDS > > > > > > Date: Saturday, April 05, 1997 4:34 PM > > > > > > > > > > > > Ok you CANSLIMrs. Put this one through the ringer. Came right out > > of > > > > > > Friday's Week-End Review. Does it fit the mold? Did it jump too > > high? > > > > > > Beyond the 5% buy range? > > > > > > Earlier today I read a post of somebody wanting something > > free. > > > > > > Nothing wrong with that I guess, but everytime I hear free it > > reminds > > > > > me of > > > > > > > > > > > However, what is amazing that a simply written book for the > average > > > > > > investor for under $20, a newspaper for about a dollar a day, an > > > > > average > > > > > > mind, and a little time can turn the Greek into a first grade > > primer > > > > > and > > > > > > also a GOLD MINE. Just a thought. Thanks in advance to any of you > > who > > > > > offer > > > > > > your opinion. > > > > > > James ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: [CANSLIM] Fw: Contests and this group Date: 06 Apr 1997 10:10:10 -0400 Another post apparently lost by majordumbo - will try again. What's going on, Jeff? BTW, you never explained your "return receipt" test. tom w ---------- > From: Tom Worley > To: CANSLIM > Subject: Contests and this group > Date: Sunday, April 06, 1997 9:22 AM > > OK, I have gritted my keyboard for 24 hours, and will now attempt a > "restrained" response. > > Rick, don't know you (since you have yet to introduce yourself) or your > professional or investing background (also due your lack of an > introduction). So this is just background: all I have ever asked of any > member of this group is to introduce yourself with the above info so we > know who is here and who can serve as a "resource" in a particular > industry; that you read and study O'Neill's book "How to Make Money in > Stocks" (HTMMIS); and that you act civilized. > > No, I do not own this group list, I am just an active member willing to > share what I know and have learned. I have something of a unique > background which I believe has helped this group. My attitude on > Barron's has been known to this group, just like my attitude on > Garzarelli, for some time. You apparently are a new member and may not > have known. But anyone who snips my several hours of market review and > comments and a lot of typing, then links my msg header and subject to a > Barrons article is not doing me a favor, and I responded accordingly. > If this offended you or the snipper, I apologize, offense was not > intended, I just want my position recognized. > > If you want to run a contest to establish whether CANSLIM is right for > you, that is your choice, but it is not the purpose of this group. This > group is made up of members who have either already established that > CANSLIM works for them, or at least want to learn more to find out. To > be an active member requires work, including reading and studying > HTMMIS. If you are willing to do so, then welcome, and I would > appreciate an intro to better know you and your capabilities. If you > really want to test a CANSLIM approach in a "contest" environment, then > I suggest you either take it to one of many sites that offer contests > and do your comparisons in private email, or else set up your own > private email for those members who wish to participate. I did this > when I was concerned that my lengthy "market comments" were burdening > this group with email that many didn't want. I eventually brought my > comments back to this group forum when nearly half the group were > active subscribers. You are obviously intelligent, if you have some > CANSLIM candidates, I will be happy to see them and review their > characteristics. > > FOR THE CANSLIM GROUP: We have now lost an hour to the change in > Daylight Savings, and nearly the entire weekend in discussions over > Rick and a contest, etc. For me, I consider the issue closed. The > discussion can continue without me. I think we have completely lost our > purpose this weekend, sadly. We have had two days of strength in the > market, esp with the techs, and despite a strong jobs report on Friday. > Yet we have spent the better part of the weekend without discussing any > stocks that are set up for a breakout next week if the past two days' > pattern should hold. There has been no discussion on what the past two > days means for the future, or what the jobs report does for rate hikes, > or anything even vaguely CANSLIM related. Speaking personally, I get > enough email and spend enough other hours working, then reviewing the > market, and surfing the net for even more info, that I am not willing > to wade thru additional email even with the subject line starting with > CONTEST. I tend to read everything I get, I know that's my > obsessiveness, I even read snailmail junk mail, at least enough to know > it's junk. With email, I recognize, since I am guilty of it myself, you > start off with a subj line, and pretty soon you are writing about > something else entirely and never update the subj line. Thus, even if > the email says CONTEST, I would still look at it, so please, take it > private. > > end of "restrained" response > > tom w ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Hemant Rotithor Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Rick-Canslim no workee? Date: 06 Apr 1997 10:21:21 -0700 Rick Miller wrote: > I'll bet that I can beat those 5 > stocks using two methods I have found successful: > > 1. Gut Feeling > 2. Volume study So gut feeling based investing is not much use to any one other than you but since you mention Volume study is done using IBD I am interested in understanding it. What is it? How do you use volumes in stock selection, how is it different from the known techniques people use with volume for recognizing breakouts? There may be something of value here. Thanks for your response. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Johan Van Houtven Subject: [CANSLIM] Various: The Market, Contests, personal attacks, Date: 06 Apr 1997 13:00:16 +0200 The Market: When I look at the NASDAQ and DJIA charts, on DG Online, I do not yet see anything to get excited about. Not even the nice recent tech rally excites me. It might just be a counter trend rally? I'm determined to stay 100% in cash until the market looks healthy again for CANSLIM type investing. So I'll continue to look at both charts and do the same type of analysis on these charts that Craig posted here a while back. (You all remember Craig's post with the accompanying, annotated NASDAQ chart, don't you?) I also read Tom's market comments to gain more insight in the day to day changes in the market. Contests: IMHO you can not test the CANSLIM method per se. You can only test it's users. So it is not possible to compare several investment methods (unless they are purely mechanical maybe). It is possible to compare individual investor's results. If you want to test your CANSLIM wizardry I know of one site where they hold a weekly (?) CANSLIM investment contest: http:\\www.sku.com (This is from memory. Maybe it's not there anymore. I did not check.) Personal attacks: Let us keep this list as civil and high standard as it has been. If you really feel that you must make a personal attack, I'd personally appreciate it if you'd do it via e-mail, not via the group. Saves me from wading through all those messages. Personal vacation: Countdown: 5 days before take off ;^) (Just wanted to give this message a happy ending. B^) Be well, Johan Van Houtven CLICK! N.V. / Wilrijk, Belgium ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Zoran Mitrovski Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Rick-Canslim no workee Date: 06 Apr 1997 12:15:16 -0400 (EDT) So welcome to the group, Rick. (There, you managed to make yourself the first ever new-commer to ever receive an actual written welcome from me ;^)) Can you please give us a short introduction of yourself, what you do, and how much investing experience you have? Since there is no FAQ for this group I would also suggest you browse through the group's archives at http://www.xmission.com:80/pub/lists/canslim/?856509100 to get a better feel for it. Now, you mentioned "Volume Study" as one of your preferred "methods" of investing. I am curious as to what you mean by this, especially given the importance volume has within the canslim framework. Please explain as much of it as you feel comfortable explaining. To the group... I don't think any time has been waisted here. Tom and mike l, I don't know why are you so pissed if "the group" hasn't provided you with canslim candidates for the Monday opening. Perhaps, if there are still no candidates people feel comfortable enough attaching their names to, that is also an information in itself. I myself, do not feel so exhilirated by the strong Friday's close in the techs to switch my careful-bearish sentiment with an urgent 'we missed so many trains' bullish one. Cheers, Zoran > Zoran: > > I did not intend to cause a disturbance. I will just lay low and read and > listen and learn and if I have anything to offer, I'll give it IMHO. The > challenge I made earlier was not to insult anyone or play useless games. > Investing is a serious business and one can lose their backside if they > don't know what they are doing. In the spirit of fun, I may have been > overzealous, but it was only to find the truth, which I do believe one can > find. (about canslim or any other theory) I am not sure exactly what the > direction of the group is and maybe testing canslim is not appropriate to > what your goals are for having this group. You are probably right that > such a test or contest may be better done on another site, although I still > believe that it would be helpful for an adherent to canslim to know what > the success rate is- that being determined by dicussion and analysis among > the adherents. But I do not wish to dictate the direction of this group, > so I will listen and learn. Thank you for your note. > > Rick ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: musicant@autobahn.org (Dan Musicant) Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] company names? -- Downloading databases. Date: 06 Apr 1997 16:30:12 GMT On Sat, 5 Apr 1997 09:16:49 -0500, you wrote: :Thanks Dan, could be a help to those who haven't lived and breathed :this business for so many years to the point that we think in symbols :instead of names. : :tom w :---------- :From: Dan Musicant :To: canslim@mail.xmission.com :Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] company names?=20 :Date: Friday, April 04, 1997 10:47 PM : :too big file and is undoubtedly available. If I find one I'll either :post about it or attach it to a post. : :Dan Still haven't found it...but!...I did find a site where I can periodically (during the day) download a text file that is a comma delimited database of 5000+ stocks... Symbol, Last, Change, Volume, Previous,High, Low,%Chg The site: http://www.tradepbs.com/qsys/web/headers/downmenu In their words, you can then "manipulate" the data for your purposes.=20 I take this to mean that after I import the data into a database system, I can rank stocks by % gain, acceleration, % change in volume, whatever. I have Access and FoxPro on my system and am 100 times more comfortable in FoxPro, but haven't found a way to import comma delimited files into it yet. I could import it into Access and then export it from there into FoxPro. Am I right that this would be an invaluable tool? My impression is that elsewhere this sort of info is only available once a day and that IBD online cancelled their % change in volume listings. Obviously, this becomes more useful if the information is frequent and up to date, not to mention accurate (looking at the file I downloaded [300+k] I saw a glaring error or two). Dan ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: musicant@autobahn.org (Dan Musicant) Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Rick-Canslim no workee? Date: 06 Apr 1997 17:15:47 GMT On Sat, 5 Apr 1997 14:09:18 -0600, you wrote: :No, canslim does not lend itself to contests, I agree. But you invest = to :make money, don't you? =20 Yes. :All I am saying is that there might be, just might :be other methods that work better than canslim.=20 Granted. I'm sure there are. We are trying to do the impossible -- there *is* no way to accurately predict the action of the markets. We are only trying to get a let up on it, one way or another. It has been noted that no two practitioners of CANSLIM do it the same way, BTW. :(Sorry for the blasphemy canslimmers) =20 I don't follow the methods religiously. Indeed, O'Neil himself (if you read him carefully) indicates that he doesn't either. :What other way than to test one method against another to :find out which one works best time after time? =20 Well, you see, that's easier said than done. To adequately implement the principles of CANSLIM, you have to understand it. It's not just something you implement after a 20 minute review of criteria, though your method may be.=20 :If you have a problem with :timing, you tell me when you want to pick your 5 stocks and I'll be = ready :on the same day to select ones using my methods. =20 This too violates the principles of CANSLIM. There is no day when it suddenly becomes the right time to establish 5 positions. :Since O'Neil recommends :holding on to a stock for at least 8 weeks unless the stop-loss is = reached, This is not an accurate assessment. He would only recommend possibly holding on for 8 weeks if a stock continued to meet CANSLIM criteria. I believe there is a complex of factors to consider in determining how long to hold on. The "M" in CANSLIM is always 60% of the picture, and in today's market,"8 week" pictures are like wearing glasses you picked up on the street...not a good idea. :we can at least compare the performance for that period of time without = too :many hassles I presume. Like I said, you are presuming an awful lot there. :If you need to sell, OK, I'll sell one of mine too :and when you buy, I'll buy another one. I'll even keep track of the = stocks :and report on them weekly so you won't have to do any work. =20 :Dan, all I'm trying to do is find what is true and what is hype. =20 That's fine. You are not the first person who wondered if there wasn't some "hype" in CANSLIM, me included. It is fundamental that you have to make up your own mind.=20 :I have not come down one way or the other as far as canslim is = concerned. In :fact, I'm open to adhering to it faithfully forever if it indeed works. There are people who have become millionaires using CANSLIM methods. =20 :Now, either it works (pure canslim) most of the time and works better = than :any other method most of the time or it doesn't! Finding this out does = not :take a rocket scientist. =20 Well, once again, it is not that simple. You don't just apply 6 handy dandy rules and start dialing your broker. :One can and should test and compare any method :that presumably works to ensure maximum profits. To be so inflexible as= to :not even consider that one's method may be flawed is simply, well, = stupid. Like a friend of mine once said, "Don't be afraid to make a mistake. Everything you do may be a mistake." Anything you do may be flawed, and probably is. So what? =20 :Dan, if I told you that I have been doing a study on volume using IBD = and :told you that I had a contest with myself using this method of selecting :against the canslim method and for a few years now canslim was getting :beat, wouldn't you be interested in knowing how I performed the test? = Or :would you simply ignore the "contest"? Not everything lends itself to contests. O'Neil's book indicates that some of his proteges won important contests using his methods in recent years. Those contests were in a bull market over a period of a year. David Ryan is one of those people. : :Respectfully, : :Rick I think that one of your main points, Rick, is that people have to come to their own conclusions and not subjugate themselves to a method or mindless rules. Those who make the most significant contributions to this newsletter (and the world in general) would be the first to agree with you.=20 Dan :---------- :> From: Dan Musicant :> To: canslim@mail.xmission.com :> Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Rick-Canslim no workee? :> Date: Saturday, April 05, 1997 1:02 PM :>=20 :> CANSLIM is a method of stock investment. It does not lend itself to :> contests such a Rick suggests. I am far from an expert, but from what :> I have read it seems to me that this contest (such as it is proposed) :> violates the spirit and substance of O'Neil's methods. One does not :> use CANSLIM to select 10 stocks and see how they compare to an index :> over a given period. Rick is showing a lack of understanding of what :> CANSLIM is by virtue of his proposal.=20 :>=20 :> Firstly, CANSLIM specifies the utmost care in determining the entry :> point for a position. Timing is negated in the proposal. :>=20 :> Secondly, CANSLIM is also at least equally predicated on proper timing :> for selling a stock. :>=20 :> Back to square one. :>=20 :> Dan ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: musicant@autobahn.org (Dan Musicant) Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Rick-Canslim no workee? Date: 06 Apr 1997 17:33:42 GMT =46WIW, Rick represents (among other things, I'm sure) the 3rd instance of a phenomenon I have encountered in newsgroups, newsletters, bulletin boards (all three!): i.e. the impudent naysayer, challenger of precepts cherished by the *throng*. I think most every forum that is well attended and is built around some precept, any polarization, whatever it's nature, is likely to experience this sooner or later, in some form. Dan ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Michael R. Jeffers" Subject: re: [CANSLIM] CANSLIM - The Daytime Soap Date: 06 Apr 1997 10:36:27 You gave me pause. After an simple hour or two (or three), with wife and kids telling me to come up for air, I agree that it is a tough call, but one I'm compelled to make. I looked at other bank and S&L's and they all got hammered. CEBC was already in a gentle saucer pattern, and although there was insane volume, it was not deterred. There is a 7 to 8% drop from rim to base of the saucer, with the base lasting around 5 weeks (this is all from memory, I don't have the chart in front of me). As it approaches the other rim, I feel the stop loss should work excellent here. If there is a handle, it should drop no more than 50% of the saucer, or 3 - 4%. If I see that drop, I get out with little damage. If the stock continues up, of course I gain. After saying all of that (and reading what Tom had to say about tech stocks MAYBE coming back in vogue, I dusted off some old charts and found MSCC. I've really got to spend time with the family, so I won't go into long explanations as to why I like it. I do see good chart pattern, and the IBD numbers are generally favorable. Finally, its group seems to be strong. I think it to be a better call than the SNM, which I will not buy at this time. Once again, this great bunch of incisive minds comes to my rescue. At 03:27 AM 4/6/97 -0400, you wrote: >one little note on CEBC: not too many players would go long a bank >stock right after the fed starts raising rates -- so i take this to >mean that you think the long bond (whose rate is of course not set >by the fed) is now very near the top of its trading range > >could well be, i think it's a tough call -- very interesting > >mike > Just Little 'Ole Me, Michael R. Jeffers ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Hemant Rotithor Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] company names? -- Downloading databases. Date: 06 Apr 1997 12:59:49 -0700 Dan Musicant wrote: > :Dan > Still haven't found it...but!...I did find a site where I can > periodically (during the day) download a text file that is a comma > delimited database of 5000+ stocks... > > Symbol, Last, Change, Volume, Previous,High, Low,%Chg > > The site: > http://www.tradepbs.com/qsys/web/headers/downmenu > > In their words, you can then "manipulate" the data for your purposes. > I take this to mean that after I import the data into a database > system, I can rank stocks by % gain, acceleration, % change in volume, > whatever. I have Access and FoxPro on my system and am 100 times more > comfortable in FoxPro, but haven't found a way to import comma > delimited files into it yet. I could import it into Access and then > export it from there into FoxPro. Am I right that this would be an > invaluable tool? My impression is that elsewhere this sort of info is > only available once a day and that IBD online cancelled their % change > in volume listings. Obviously, this becomes more useful if the > information is frequent and up to date, not to mention accurate > (looking at the file I downloaded [300+k] I saw a glaring error or > two). > > Dan As an alrenative to using a general purpose database software, there is a free scanning charting software called "stockwiz" from Isoft that can accept ascii data. I used the data from above source and wrote a utility to convert it to stockwiz/metastock format, which then could be manipulated with any of the software. However, I found it to be of limited use because the data above is for about 6K stocks onaly and there is a problem with correctness of data. So it is hard to make a buying decision based on the analysis. One is better off using a professional data source from quotes plus or others. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Craig Griffin Subject: [CANSLIM] Contest Web Site Date: 06 Apr 1997 14:27:53 -0400 (EDT) Please TRASH this post if not interested in a CONTEST. (Sorry for the waste of bandwidth). For those of you still wishing to have a contest, Johan mentioned this one but you might have missed it in the flurry of posts --- http://www.sku.com/ There are participants from various CANSLIM forums (and all investment philosphies I would guess). All the work of scorekeeping is thus taken care of (and our List will be left for more pertinent activity). The Beginners TA Forum on Silicon Investor at the following address ---- http://talk.techstocks.com/~wsapi/investor/reply?s=sku.&sreply=1131455 has a recent update to the contest, so you can see just how laborious record keeping can be. Hope this helps. (And sorry for wasting the bandwidth if you don't care.) PS. One of the participants who uses a partial CANSLIM approach is Bruce Brotnov. I believe Gary Best is also a CANSLIM'r from reading various posts on SI (Silicon Investor). Free contest may be closed at this point. You will have to ask. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Craig Griffin Subject: [CANSLIM] The Market Date: 06 Apr 1997 14:50:35 -0400 (EDT) Looking at a chart of the NASDAQ. This bounce has taken it 3% or so from the lows in two days (1% on Thursday and 2% on Friday). A nice start to a rally. Question is: will the rally fail or will it continue and will we have a confirming 1% up day (on higher volume than the day before) in the next two weeks (3rd through the 10th day of rally)? Thin reeds --- I am already seeing very bearish comments in the local press and in the web press. People are now saying "this market could drop another thousand points from here (and by the way we went to 50% cash 4 weeks ago)". This kind of quick reaction in the press to what has been a rapid selloff leads me to believe there is more upside to go over the next week or so. I also read somewhere that the economic news released in the next 5 trading days will be less likely to influence the market. Whether the uptrend will be confirmed or the rally will fail, I haven't a clue. (I don't know whether the guy calling for the 1000 pt drop is right or wrong, just suspect rally will continue a bit right now and then, we'll see). My opinion only. There you go Tom, a bit of market commentary from someone who is frequently wrong when calling short term direction, but who did manage to go to cash at about the right time (hearing Wm. O'Neil's opinion in Feb. didn't hurt). Let me know what you think if you get the time. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: derek b Subject: [CANSLIM] Market breadth update Date: 06 Apr 1997 15:00:28 -0400 Market breadth update: I see some comments regarding buying on Monday. I have posted updates to the STIX Advance / Decline market breadth indicator. See: http://www.geocities.com/WallStreet/7422/STIXNDQ.gif http://www.geocities.com/WallStreet/7422/stixny1.gif My conclusion: Too early to buy just yet. The NYSE is closer to a market buy signal (Red STIX indicator passing up through blue line). Nasdaq still appears to be in a correction. Any short turn rally could be rapidly reversed. Alternatively, seasonally the April 15 tax date has in recent history coincided with retail investors funding last-minute IRA's, and thus providing the massive liquidity that has powered this bull in the 90's. Thus, a short term rally is possible. Watch for power in the rally, though, because, we may be headed down further if follow-through is weak. I'm out of the market currently, but have begun to fire up the long scans again. This one has a nice C&H and breakout Friday, but not a strong CANSLIM stock: HMX Derek ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Michael A Langston Subject: re: [CANSLIM] The Market Date: 06 Apr 1997 15:04:25 -0400 craig writes: > the NASDAQ...very bearish comments...quick reaction in the press... > economic news...suspect rally will continue a bit right now FWIW, jim horan expresses a similar opinion, a trader's bounce expected, although his reasoning is based more on technicals than craig's -- just another data point folks mike ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: GoldFish Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Rick-Canslim no workee? Date: 06 Apr 1997 14:17:15 -0700 Hi Folks: It has been a very educational and entertaning experience for me to joint this group. I find it is amazing that so many people voiced against Rick. We are not in a cult group, are we? What's wrong with challeng each other's thinking. Yes, Tom is more experienced than most of us and I appreciate his input to this group. If anyone who challeng the high priest, then he/she will be cut out of communication? If anyone who voiced different ideology, then he/she should be kick out? With this kind of thinking, how can you expect people from this group to be an independent thinker? And people even said CANSLIM can not be put to test? What kind of investment technique is this? That's not my cup of tea. Rick, I support your voice! And I am out of here. Sincerely, Haw-Jye Shyu ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: derek b Subject: [CANSLIM] Poor Man's ProSearch Date: 06 Apr 1997 16:49:33 -0400 http://www.researchmag.com/cgi-apps/basmodel.exe Free registration required. You can search large database of stocks for a variety of fundamental criteria. I think this is the list that asked about a 'Net alternative to Prosearch. Derek ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Craig Griffin Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Rick-Canslim no workee? Date: 06 Apr 1997 18:01:54 -0400 (EDT) At 02:17 PM 4/6/97 -0700, you wrote: >I find it is amazing that so many people voiced against Rick. >We are not in a cult group, are we? No one is voicing against Rick, personally. We just think it a waste of time to test CANSLIM, when we need to spend that time learning or making money in the market. Challenging thinking is good. Trying new concepts is good (bring on the volume studies, Rick). Testing CANSLIM belongs elsewhere. >If anyone who challeng the high priest, then he/she will be cut out of >communication? If anyone who voiced different ideology, then he/she >should be kick out? Not at all. Nobody suggested that. Only that we do not have time to "prove" CANSLIM to every new group member. >Rick, I support your voice! And I am out of here. Rick, we all support your voice. We simply need to stick to our charter. Stick around and help us apply and understand CANSLIM better (and question the parts that do not seem to work or make sense). If you have not yet read O'Neil's book, take a first pass through it. Like any discipline/practice, this one can be improved. Haw-Jye Shyu, Goldfish, I hope you see that another List would be better for evaluating investment philosophies. This list is for the purpose of learning / sharing a particular philosphy, not to test it. If you are interested in CANSLIM, please stay. If not, I understand your reason for leaving. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Brenda" Subject: [CANSLIM] When To Sell - Per CANSLIM Date: 06 Apr 1997 18:23:10 -0500 Hello Group! One of the hardest points I have understanding in HTMMIS is Mr. O'Neil's exact selling point in certain circumstances. It "seems" to me that he wants to sell some of a position when it is up 20%. I, personally, deviate from his method if this is really true. If after a week, a stock is still up, still performing very nicely, graph is still intact, volume is still performing as an advancing stock should, nothing else has changed, I purchase MORE of the stock, not selling any of it." I have been keeping records and tracking results once since 1990. I have found that this practice has me soooooooo far ahead of selling some at 20% that it is LUDICROUS for me to even imagine selling any at up 20%. Hopefully, I have just misread, misinterpreted, misunderstood something. To recapture seed money? Did he not say he fired a broker for suggesting that? Just a thought and wondering if you have any input. Let's hope Monday is a good day. Best to you. James ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Craig Griffin Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Archives Info ***Repost*** Date: 06 Apr 1997 19:25:41 -0400 (EDT) I will be reposting this to the group every so often with the same title so you can easily hit the delete key when you have read it once. This is a standard repost to notify newcomers to the existence of the CANSLIM list serve archives. It serves in lieu of a FAQ to allow you get up to speed with the group in some respects. Thanks again to Jeff Salisbury for providing the list server. Here are the two ways to access the archives: 1)(BEST way) via your web browser at: ftp://ftp.xmission.com/pub/lists/canslim/ Click on either "archive" or "latest" and browse away. 2)(Not as convenient) via email: Send an email to majordomo@xmission.com with the following as the body of your message: "index canslim". Then send a follow up email to request an old email from either the "archive" or "latest" directory. Note that your request must be in the body of your email. For example: "get canslim latest/001" will retrieve file "001" from the "latest" directory. "get canslim archive/v01.n066" will retrieve file "v01.n066" from the "archive" dir. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Hemant Rotithor Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Rick-Canslim no workee? Date: 06 Apr 1997 19:22:07 -0700 GoldFish wrote: > > Hi Folks: > > It has been a very educational and entertaning experience for me to > joint this group. > > I find it is amazing that so many people voiced against Rick. > We are not in a cult group, are we? > Rick, I support your voice! And I am out of here. > > Sincerely, > > Haw-Jye Shyu I would encourage you to stay on. I read all the posts by Rick Miller and responses to that from this group. I think the initial response he got to his proposal was rather harsh but that probably was due to the way he made his proposal; had he not mentioned "gut feeling" as one of the components of stock selection the proposal would have appeared to be more concrete. Unless gut feeling includes all systematic approaches, people are unlikely to beleive that there is any meaningful system. Some of the responses about not being able to test CANSLIM were interesting to say the least; why can we not test it? if we can't then we should find ways to test it even if the methods are imperfect; so many of the real life test systems are imperfect yet we use them regularly. Another troublesome aspect of some responses was suggestion a poster to go and read William O'Neill's book by assuming that the poster has not read it by default (In Rick's case he mentioned having read it), that could amount to underestimating the person's background. I have seen some people mention that they have read O'Neill's book many times and claim to understand CANSLIMvery well, yet suggest stocks trading at less than $10. I would humbly suggest folks to be more respectful to others, not assume anything about their background unless they mention it because on an email list as this you just don't know who you are dealing with at the other end. I feel the need to voice my opinion because although Rick's proposal could have been better, I think many of the responses could have been even better written and we may be setting a precedence for such posts in the future. With best regards Hemant Rotithor ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Jim Knock Subject: re: [CANSLIM] SFDS Date: 06 Apr 1997 19:38:08 -0500 Mike, What's free parking? Jim At 03:18 AM 4/6/97 -0400, you wrote: > >IMHO, yes -- one like this is best played off free parking, which >was back at around 36 > >btw, in a good HGS market free-parking plays can be great (though >i don't recall o'neil having much to say about them) -- in a market >like this, they are dangerous, with maybe one bouncing off the 50 >for every two-three-more that drive right through it on the way down > >mike > > ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: rkhenry@naxs.com (Robert Henry) Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] Why I like CANSLIM Date: 06 Apr 1997 22:08:59 -0400 I haven't actually tried out CANSLIM yet. About the time I decided to = look into it the "M" part went soft. Still, assuming it works like Mr. = O'Neil (and others) say it does, I'm excited. I feel a little like the = kid who gets a new sled for Christmas and Christmas morning the sky is = clear blue and the temperature is 70 degrees (yeah, been there) or the = kid who just got a new kite but it's raining outside. I can't wait to = try out CANSLIM. And I don't intend to paper-trade either (but start = with a very small position.). I've tried it and paper-trading is just = nothing like the real thing. When you're actually trading you never = quite know what prices you're going to get when you place that order. = Then of course the emotional stress of actually having real money on the = table alters your perception. Any "fool" can make "paper" money by = paper-trading, especially if you're permitted to delude yourself into = making all sorts of assumptions that have nothing to do with the real = world. You can't learn to fly with your feet on the ground, you can't = learn to swim without getting wet, and I don't think you can learn to = trade stocks with Monopoly money. Then of course there's another = consideration: you can't spend "paper" profits.=20 One thing I like about CANSLIM is that it permits "stock picking" to = enter into the equation. So many strategies I've seen seem to assert = that you can make money trading anything as long as you follow charts or = numbers or moon phases or some other such thing. Most of the indicators = seem to be dedicated to following the performance of the Dow Industrials = or some other index. If you're going to do that you might as well just = buy an index fund. I've seen that even in a raging bull market you can = easily buy stocks that go down while everything else is going up. (Even = stocks that don't seem to have anything wrong with them except that the = market doesn't like them.) Other strategies do focus on stock picking, worrying over such elements = as PE, sales, debt, book value, and rarely, earnings growth. These = strategies seem to assert that all you have to do is pick a good company = with good prospects, buy in and wait. Even if the market doesn't like = the company right now, maybe because it or its industry isn't = fashionable, just wait and eventually the market will come to it's = senses and realize the value of what you've been holding. Sometimes it = can take quite a time, but eventually your foresightedness will be = rewarded. Actually, I've used this strategy and it does work, = eventually, if you have the patience (and if the company doesn't = self-destruct in the meantime). =20 CANSLIM tries to deal with all of these elements. It's a complete = strategy that helps you decide WHICH stocks to buy and tells WHEN to buy = them to achieve optimum return. If you bought no other book than Mr. = O'Neil's "How to Make Money in Stocks" you could still proceed--assuming = it actually works. I'm hoping to find that out as soon as the market = gets through screwing around. It seems to me that if you follow his = rules carefully, no cheating, that there shouldn't be too much risk of = getting hurt and even then not getting hurt badly. It makes sense, it = seems reasonable, and it seems to be a complete strategy that was = arrived at scientifically by looking at the performance of actual = stocks. Science Rules! And because it is scientific, with the rules = clearly spelled out, it means that any idiot can apply it successfully, = not just people who were blessed with ESP or years of experience "on the = street." Or have I completely misinterpreted things? -- Bob Henry ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Louis H. Gipson, RN" Subject: [CANSLIM] Daily Graphs/Quotes Plus Date: 06 Apr 1997 20:54:45 -0700 Hi folks, First, I'd like to thanks Tom and Patrick for their kind responses to my inquires. My apologies for the private posts but I wanted to keep my head down with all the sniper fire flying around this weekend.(((grin))) Glad that's over for now. Secondly, my heart felt condolences to Tom on the lost of his wife. Thirdly, and the subject of this post; Tom, you mentioned being able to get O'Neil's Daily Graphs on a trial period. May I impose on you to provide the information on how to order this service. I checked a few dozen web sites and some back issues of IBD and have not been able to find anything on how to order. My partner and I have committed to spending some money on our learning process but we do have some limitations. I am, afterall, still a hard working RN but looking for ways to work smarter not harded yet. Another suggestion we received was to purchase the Quote Plus program and subscription service. Any comments pro or con on this program will be appreciated. How important is Quote Plus in your daily decision making? Keep up the good work. I certainly speak for a few lurkers in saying the exchange of ideas is the best way to increase the value of those same ideas. Louis Gipson, RN ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: musicant@autobahn.org (Dan Musicant) Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] When To Sell - Per CANSLIM Date: 07 Apr 1997 04:34:41 GMT On Sun, 6 Apr 1997 18:23:10 -0500, you wrote: :Hello Group! : One of the hardest points I have understanding in HTMMIS is Mr. :O'Neil's exact selling point in certain circumstances. It "seems" to me :that he wants to sell some of a position when it is up 20%. I, = personally, :deviate from his method if this is really true. If after a week, a stock= is :still up, still performing very nicely, graph is still intact, volume is :still performing as an advancing stock should, nothing else has changed,= I :purchase MORE of the stock, not selling any of it." I have been keeping :records and tracking results once since 1990. I have found that this :practice has me soooooooo far ahead of selling some at 20% that it is :LUDICROUS for me to even imagine selling any at up 20%. Hopefully, I = have :just misread, misinterpreted, misunderstood something. To recapture seed :money? Did he not say he fired a broker for suggesting that? Just a = thought :and wondering if you have any input. Let's hope Monday is a good day. = Best :to you.=20 :James My first connection with CANSLIM was to go see O'Neil deliver an address in a sort of auditorium last October or so. They gave out free audio tapes and two weeks free IBD. WJO showed charts after explaining CANSLIM and then fielded questions. My ride dragged me out of there...I didn't want to leave. I believe he asserted several times while pointing to steeply rising charts with a long stick that he would consider buying more at various points as stocks continued to rise. There is no hard and fast rule, and the message was at least in part that every chart tells a different story, and WJO read them each as if he were seeing it for the first time as he analyzed it. It was to give an idea of the sorts of things one might deduce... If you ever get a chance to see O'Neil give one of these addresses, check it out. I believe you can call IBD or check out the newspaper for details. Dan ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Michael A Langston Subject: re: [CANSLIM] SFDS Date: 07 Apr 1997 00:44:36 -0400 jim knock asks: > What's free parking? jim, a HGS will often pause to rebase at its simple 50 day moving average, a place generally termed "free parking" -- there are many ways to play this action, ideally, the stock pattern remains tight while the average catches up to it -- actually, i prefer a volume- weighted average myself, but simple is the norm mike p.s. i seem to recall going over this not very long ago, but am too lazy to check the archives for what i said then -- hopefully it doesn't contradict the above :) -- i'm gonna check my files to see if i don't have a FAQ floating around from a different CANSLIM group, we could sure use one -- or maybe we already have one here, i forget......... ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: shenli@global.california.com Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Daily Graphs/Quotes Plus Date: 06 Apr 1997 23:09:43 -0700 (PDT) Canslimers, I ran across something the other day about an article in the September 1989 issue of the AAII Journal that highlights O'Neil's treatise "The Greatest Stock Market Winners: 1970-1983". I wonder if this was before his CANSLIM treatise, if so how close or different is it. I intent to attend a free IBD seminar with him as speaker coming to the bay area on April 19 in Berkeley. Thanks for any replys, Shenli ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: shenli@global.california.com Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Daily Graphs/Quotes Plus Date: 06 Apr 1997 23:09:43 -0700 (PDT) Canslimers, I ran across something the other day about an article in the September 1989 issue of the AAII Journal that highlights O'Neil's treatise "The Greatest Stock Market Winners: 1970-1983". I wonder if this was before his CANSLIM treatise, if so how close or different is it. I intent to attend a free IBD seminar with him as speaker coming to the bay area on April 19 in Berkeley. Thanks for any replys, Shenli ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Daily Graphs subscription Date: 07 Apr 1997 07:07:56 -0400 call 800-472-7479, a five week trial, 5 issues of both vol (OTC/AMEX and NYSE) costs $28 plus$15 shipping and handling. tom w ---------- > From: Louis H. Gipson, RN > To: canslim@xmission.com > Subject: [CANSLIM] Daily Graphs/Quotes Plus > Date: Sunday, April 06, 1997 11:54 PM > > Thirdly, and the subject of this post; Tom, you mentioned being able to > get O'Neil's Daily Graphs on a trial period. May I impose on you to > provide the information on how to order this service. I checked a few ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: owner-canslim@xmission.com Date: 07 Apr 1997 08:31:32 -0600 --- Forwarded mail from owner-canslim@xmission.com Sender: owner-canslim@xmission.com Precedence: bulk Reply-To: canslim Here is a list of Stocks Symbols -> Company names. Enjoy, Jonathan. ----------- cut here --------------- A ASTRA AB SPON ADR A SH AA ALUMINUM CO AMER COM AAB ASTRA AB SPON ADR B SH AABC ACCESS ANYTIME BANCORP INC COM AACE ACE CASH EXPRESS INC COM AACI ALL AMERN COMMUNICATIONS INC COM NEW AACIB ALL AMERN COMMUNICATIONS INC CL B AADV ADVANTAGE BANCORP COM AAF AMERICAN GOVT INCM PTFL INC COM AAFG ALL AMERN FOOD GROUP INC COM AAG AMERICAN ANNUITY GROUP INC COM AAGIY ANGLO AMERN GOLD INVT LTD ADR ORD NEW AAGP ACTIVE APPAREL GROUP INC COM AAH AMBASSADOR APTS INC COM AAHS CHILDRENS BROADCASTING CORP COM NEW AAII APPLIED ANALYTICAL INDS INC COM AAIR AIRWAYS CORP COM AALA AMERALIA INC COM NEW AALR ADVANCED LOGIC RESH INC COM AAM AAMES FINL CORP COM AAME ATLANTIC AMERN CORP COM AANB ABIGAIL ADAMS NATL BANCORP COM AAON AAON INC COM PAR $0.004 AAP AMWAY ASIA PACIFIC LTD COM AAPL APPLE COMPUTER INC COM AAS AMERISOURCE HEALTH CORP CL A AASI ADVNCD AERODNMCS & STRCT INC CL A AASIW ADVNCD AERODNMCS & STRCT INC WT A 00-00-2001 AASIZ ADVNCD AERODNMCS & 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CORP COM YILDW YIELDUP INTL CORP WT A 00-00-2000 YILDZ YIELDUP INTL CORP WT B 00-00-2000 YLD HIGH INCOME ADVANTAGE TR SH BEN INT YLH HIGH INCOME ADVANTAGE TR III SH BEN INT YLT HIGH INCOME ADVANTAGE TR II SH BEN INT YOCM INTERNATIONAL YOGURT CO COM YORK YORK RESH CORP COM YPF YPF SOCIEDAD ANONIMA SPON ADR REP D YRK YORK INTL CORP NEW COM YRKG YORK GROUP INC COM YSII YOUTH SVCS INTL INC COM YURI YURIE SYS INC COM Z WOOLWORTH CORP COM ZAGIF ZAG INDUSTRIES LTD ORD ZAP ZAPATA CORP COM NEW ZAPS COOPER LIFE SCIENCES COM NEW ZBRA ZEBRA TECHNOLOGIES CORP CL A ZCAD ZYCAD CORP COM ZCO ZIEGLER INC COM ZE ZENITH ELECTRS CORP COM ZEI ZEIGLER COAL HLDG CO COM ZEN ZENECA GROUP PLC SPONSORED ADR ZEUS OLYMPIC STL INC COM ZF ZWEIG FD INC COM ZHOM ZARING HOMES INC COM ZIF ZENIX INCOME FD INC COM ZIGO ZYGO CORP COM ZILA ZILA INC COM PAR $0.01 ZING ZING TECHNOLOGIES INC COM ZION ZIONS BANCORP COM ZITL ZITEL CORP COM ZLC ZALE CORP NEW COM ZLC X ZALE CORP NEW WT A 07-29-1998 ZLG ZILOG INC COM ZMX ZEMEX CORP COM ZNDTY ZINDART LTD SPONSORED ADR ZNRG ZYDECO ENERGY INC COM ZNRGW ZYDECO ENERGY INC WT 12-13-2000 ZNT ZENITH NATL INS CORP COM ZOLL ZOLL MED CORP COM ZOLT ZOLTEK COS INC COM ZOMX ZOMAX OPTICAL MEDIA INC COM ZONA ZONAGEN INC COM ZOOM ZOOM TELEPHONICS INC COM ZRAN ZORAN CORP COM ZRC ZURICH REINS CENTRE HLDGS COM ZRN ZURN INDS INC COM ZRO ZERO CORP COM ZSEV Z SEVEN FD INC COM ZTEC ZYTEC CORP COM ZTR ZWEIG TOTAL RETURN FD INC COM ---End of forwarded mail from owner-canslim@xmission.com ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Brian Nash Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] P/E ratio, debate Date: 07 Apr 1997 09:25:46 -0700 >> If I have a relatively high trailing PE which drops sharply on projected PEs, then I have confirmed in my mind some CANSLIM criteria of earnings growth << I sometimes use this technique to spot stocks to watch. Right now, here's a couple of stocks I watch on the basis of this criteria: TAROF: EPS:92, RS:74 A/D:B Grp:A. TTM P/E:40, PE on '97 estimate is 19 MDCC: EPS:91 RS:67 A./D:B Grp:D TTM P/E:54, PE on '97 estimate is 16 Charts on both these look bad right now, however. > ---------- > From: Tom Worley[SMTP:stkguru@netside.net] > Sent: Saturday, April 05, 1997 7:50 PM > To: canslim@mail.xmission.com > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] P/E ratio, debate > > One way I do include PE in my reviews is to calculate what the > projected PE is for the current and, if available, next year based on > current price and compare that to the trailing PE. If I have a > relatively high trailing PE which drops sharply on projected PEs, then > I have confirmed in my mind some CANSLIM criteria of earnings growth > and don't consider it further. As I understand it, recent earnings, > with extra weigh on the two most recent qtrs, carries a big part of > the > CANSLIM forecasting. Thus if earnings are accelerating (thus reducing > projected PE nrs) then it fits. If earnings are flattening out, then > an > already high PE will remain in the future and the stock will fail > CANSLIM criteria, not because of the high PE but because of > declerating > earnings growth. > I also agree with your comments on performance of New USA Fund run by > Ryan. As I previously mentioned I know from personal knowledge that he > missed one big leg up in the market because he was expecting a > correction/crash as was heavy in cash. There seems a philosophy in > life > that when you are a big winner, you cash in your chips and ride the > reputation. Garzarelli did it in '87, wonder if Ryan has done the same > after winning three back-to-back nat'l championships. In other words, > when you are already a big winner, and have a reputation vs being an > "unknown", do you remain as much of a risk taker as you were before? > Are you even allowed to be? > > tom w > ---------- > > From: Brenda > > To: canslim@mail.xmission.com > > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] P/E ratio, debate > > Date: Saturday, April 05, 1997 5:26 PM > > > > My opinion, and that's all it is, is just one of many. Mr. > O'Neil is > > way, way, way ahead of me and I would love to sit down with him for > > whatever time he could spare. That will not happen so I just > continue > to > > try to read and use his book. I value it deeply. > > Please take this in the spirit intended and if others think > that > Mr. > > O'Neil thinks PE is very important tell me where you see that > stated. > > Thanks! > > James > ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "David F. Cameron" Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] Why I like CANSLIM Date: 07 Apr 1997 11:32:50 CDT In response to Bob Henry... I'm finally going to jump in here. For once, I stayed out of the whole discussion on testing CANSLIM. For me, it is one method of many - but one I feel comfortable with more often than not.. > > try out CANSLIM. And I don't intend to paper-trade either (but start = > with a very small position.). I've tried it and paper-trading is just = > nothing like the real thing. When you're actually trading you never = > quite know what prices you're going to get when you place that order. = I agree. It has been costly for me - but I learn a LOT more by real trading than paper trading. Are you really willing to pull the trigger when its real money? Can you really get your stop? > One thing I like about CANSLIM is that it permits "stock picking" to = > enter into the equation. So many strategies I've seen seem to assert = > that you can make money trading anything as long as you follow charts or = > numbers or moon phases or some other such thing. Most of the indicators = > seem to be dedicated to following the performance of the Dow Industrials = > or some other index. If you're going to do that you might as well just = > buy an index fund. I've seen that even in a raging bull market you can = Seconded... I can't time the market. Currently I had to lose a lot of money (by my standards) to finally convince myself to lay off for a while. It is VERY tough to stop saying - this is a good stock, EPS continue to rise, but RS is falling, well if I just hold on, RS will bounce back. When EPS is stable to rising, and RS is falling on MANY stocks - its time to get out. I learn the hard way more often than not - but I don't forget easily when I do. With paper-trading I'd probably not retain the lessons as well. > > Or have I completely misinterpreted things? > -- Well... you have my 2 cents. Dave Cameron ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: jeff@scrooge.idec.sdl.usu.edu (Jeff Salisbury) Subject: [CANSLIM] Brew-Ha-Ha over the weekend Date: 07 Apr 1997 10:48:55 -0600 Everyone, I wish to encourage each participant of our group to exercise courtesy and mutual respect. Our little group has been exceptional in this regard -- lets keep it that way. Best Regards, Jeff Salisbury - CANSLIM list owner/admin ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Brenda" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Brew-Ha-Ha over the weekend Date: 07 Apr 1997 11:58:23 -0500 Whole heartidly SECONDED! ---------- > From: Jeff Salisbury > To: canslim@xmission.com > Subject: [CANSLIM] Brew-Ha-Ha over the weekend > Date: Monday, April 07, 1997 11:48 AM > > Everyone, > > I wish to encourage each participant of our group to exercise courtesy and > mutual respect. Our little group has been exceptional in this regard -- lets > keep it that way. > > Best Regards, > > Jeff Salisbury - CANSLIM list owner/admin ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Brenda" Subject: [CANSLIM] Peviously Mentioned Stocks Date: 07 Apr 1997 12:05:58 -0500 This past week-end we had a lot of "stuff" going on and not too many mentioning possible plays for Monday. This message from a previous post. However, I did mention the name of six stocks. They were: MLHR, GDYS, PSUN, ASTSF, TUES & SFDS. I realize that the market is UP "right now" but one usually doesn't get this "lucky". Check some of them out now before they fall. Have a good day ya'll. Always look up any stock mentioned in this forum. Can always use ideas. Hope some of you got in on some of these. James ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Brenda" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Brew-Ha-Ha over the weekend Date: 07 Apr 1997 11:58:23 -0500 Whole heartidly SECONDED! ---------- > From: Jeff Salisbury > To: canslim@xmission.com > Subject: [CANSLIM] Brew-Ha-Ha over the weekend > Date: Monday, April 07, 1997 11:48 AM > > Everyone, > > I wish to encourage each participant of our group to exercise courtesy and > mutual respect. Our little group has been exceptional in this regard -- lets > keep it that way. > > Best Regards, > > Jeff Salisbury - CANSLIM list owner/admin ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Joseph Vaughn-Perling Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] Daily Graphs/Quotes Plus Date: 07 Apr 1997 10:16:33 -0700 ------ =_NextPart_000_01BC433C.C510E9D0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="us-ascii" Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit 1-800-GRAPHS-9 (or 1-800-472-7479 if you prefer) will get you all the info. -----Original Message----- Sent: Sunday, April 06, 1997 8:55 PM Hi folks, [Joseph Vaughn-Perling] edited for brevity Thirdly, and the subject of this post; Tom, you mentioned being able to get O'Neil's Daily Graphs on a trial period. 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I am a Sr. Business Analyst/Programmer Analyst at the 3rd largest domestic auto producer (I'm sure you guessed Chrysler). I have been here for 21 years, all in Information Services working on mainframe products. I have been involved in the stock market via mutual funds for 15 months. I have learned an awful lot in that time. A couple of months ago, I ran across WJO's book and was quite impressed with it. I have read it twice, marked it up and written an outline of it so that I can review it faster, more often. But I have to be careful because I have picked up a lot of stuff and been impressed...until I come across the next author. It is safe to say that I am very confused right now. I have a lot of money to invest that I accumulated ov er the years in Chrysler's GIFs (Guaranteed Income Funds), but I have to be careful because I am 56 years old and starting to close in on retirement, which could happen as soon as 2 years from now or as long as 9 years from now. For the record, I have 5 adult children and 14 grandchildren. Still married to the same woman for 36+ years. I have followed the debate on CANSLIM for the last few days via the CANSLIM Digest. (My server was down, so I just got 5 or 6 of them today. My eyes are glazed from trying to catch up. ) I found the discussion very interesting, although I was put off by the harsh tones, of course. Hopefully, that period is over. What I was wondering is this. I have been getting one or two newsletter advertisements every week for a couple of months or more. They all sound interesting. I am so new with CANSLIM and overwhelmed with data that I feel it might be helpful if I got ideas from one or two of these newsletters and then applied the CANSLIM criteria to them. I realize this isn't strictly what this forum is about, but if someone is willing to share their opinions, I would be quite appreciative. Perhaps you could send me some private e-mail at VRB4@chrysler.com. In particular, I am wondering if anyone has any experience with the following newsletters, aphabetically arranged, and, in general, with any other newsletter I haven't encountered yet that you think is worth trying. 1. The Garzarelli Outlook (I already have a hint of some of your opinions on this one) 2. The Individual Investor's Inside Track - Jack Adamo 3. Invest With The Masters - Dan Bruce Levine 4. Investing With Barry Ziskin 5. Investor's World - John Dessauer 6. The Oxford Club - Stephen Miller, David Lambert, Thomas Fielding I will probably just lurk around for awhile more. I really don't have much to offer right now although I will stick my neck out on one stock just to see if I am in the right ballpark. I have been looking at Market Facts. I can't apply all of the CANSLIM criteria, but I'll try. It has an EPS=99, RP=99 , A/C=A. It is near new highs. It has approx. 140,000,000 shares, volume=100,000 yesterday, but much higher when it is rising. I don't know it's institutional sponsorship. It seems to have a perfect cup w/handle, except the high/low spread each day may be too much. Based on my studies, it looks great, but...I don't have the confidence to put my money where my mouth is. I appreciate any help you feel you can share. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: sabeel@loc1.tandem.com (ahmed_sabeel) Subject: [CANSLIM] O'Neil's free seminar Date: 07 Apr 1997 13:50:41 -0700 (PDT) Has anybody attended William O'Neil's free seminar? Is is trageted for beginners, or will it help those who are already well versed with the CANSLIM technique. -Sabeel ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Jonathan Polito - Lucent ASCC Subject: [CANSLIM] stock ticker to stock name list Date: 07 Apr 1997 17:02:17 -0400 I tried to send out a list of tickers to names but I neglected to check the size of the list which bounced on some ISPs mail servers. The list is over 300K. You can find the list of tickers/names archived at: ftp://ftp.xmission.com/pub/lists/canslim/archive/v01.n130 Download the archive, then cut and paste the list out... Enjoy, Jonathan. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Brenda" Subject: [CANSLIM] ASMLF Date: 07 Apr 1997 16:19:49 -0500 The "M" in CANSLIM forced me out of this one. WOW! Wish I had owned it at the close of business this past Thursday. Up over 8 Friday and 5 today. It's graph looks like a roller coaster that I might have liked to ride back when I was young. Hope you all had a very, profitable day. Being IN makes days like today worth the stomach pains over the last few weeks. Combining something Lynch said, "If you take 22, I think, days out of the year and you are out of the market you have just missed the years gain in it's entirety." Opinions on this one I am sure will be varied. The stocks I mentioned before the opening bell this morning did as follows: MLHR up 3 1/8, TUES up 3, PSUN up 1 1/4, SFDS up 1 3/16, ASTSF up 3/4, GDYS down 1/8, AMD up 1 3/4. Not all days can be like this one but it's day like this that make it fun, worthwhile and profitable. TODAY alone made up ALL losses incurred over the last 30 days. Sorry if I sound a little excited but I am. Hope you got in on some of them and are enjoying the "high" also. Have a good day. James ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Luke.Lang@sv.sc.philips.com Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Rick-Canslim no workee Date: 07 Apr 1997 14:16:30 PDT > Now, you mentioned "Volume Study" as one of your preferred > "methods" of investing. I am curious as to what you mean > by this, especially given the importance volume has within > the canslim framework. Please explain as much of it as you > feel comfortable explaining. > Rick, I think Zoran has a good suggestion. So far, you have said that you have a better method than CANSLIM and you want to prove it through a contest. I don't care for contests because they don't contribute to my learning and future money-making abilities. If you have a better method, I would like to hear about it. If you were ready to start the contest with some picks, please share them and the reasons why you would pick them. I am sure you will get some response back with disagreement and criticism, but that's how we learn. Perhaps, you might be able to refine your method to work even better. As for keeping score, you can update us periodically with the progress of your picks along with what went right and what went wrong. I hope the group will allow this. Good luck to all! Luke Lang ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Brian Nash Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] CANSLIM - New Member Date: 07 Apr 1997 15:03:10 -0700 >>> In particular, I am wondering if anyone has any experience > with the following newsletters, aphabetically arranged, and, in > general, with any other newsletter <<< I generally toss the ads for these things. Personally, I wouldn't waste a cent on them. Just for grins, I setup a 'watch' portfolio for some of the contestants on W$W. John Dessauer's ads caught my eye, because he made some specific predictions. His prediction that SEW would be a 10-bagger struck me as odd. I just couldn't see anything in the earnings or cashflow that would justify that statement. His portfolio is up 3.22% for the year, with 3 winners, 6 losers, and some ADR I can't find an initial price for. His big winner was HWG which he bought at 15 7/8 and is now as 26 1/2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: pwahl@postoffice.worldnet.att.net Subject: [CANSLIM] The Market Date: 07 Apr 1997 13:29:45 -0800 Alright Tom, here is my attempt at a market commentary, word to the wise, treat me as a contrary indicator.. All of todays market action happened in the first five minutes of trading, believe it or not. 5 minutes after the market opened, the Dow was up 52 points, S&P maybe 5 points, NASDAQ was up around 12. Market has just closed and it did an end of day fade, with the DOw looking like it will finish with a 29 point gain, the S&P around 4 points. The Utility average slipped into a loss at the end of the day, bonds, however, did have a nice bounce from the Friday dip. Overall I didn't think today's performance was very impressive. Advance Decline numbers were good, but volume not so impressive. I have a feeling this may simply be a bounce off of oversold levels, as people like to call them. As I've said before, the bond market is quite important, and until that shows signs of turning, don't expect a lot of headway to be made in the stock market. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: derek b Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] O'Neil's free seminar Date: 07 Apr 1997 19:29:29 -0400 I would venture that the majority of members of this list have attended. Some keep returning at every possible opportunity. The talk is pitched to sell the newspaper - IBD. But it's laced with current market commentary and current selections. WON suggested a defensive posture in early April '97 in Orlando. Thus, you'll find a little for everyone - novice, intermediate, old hand. For those in the Las Vegas area, Wm O'Neil will be speaking at Bally's on Tuesday April 29. Check IBD or local papers. Derek > > Has anybody attended William O'Neil's free seminar? > Is is trageted for beginners, or will it help those who are already > well versed with the CANSLIM technique. > > -Sabeel ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: derek b Subject: [CANSLIM] Red Herring Web Technology conference Date: 07 Apr 1997 19:48:46 -0400 For those interested in the type of companies frequently featured in IBD's New America pages, the current Red Herring Web Market West 1997 conference may interest you. Live and archived audio presentations are available at: http://www.news.com/radio/red.html?nd Derek Presenting Companies Internet Content and Commerce Monday, April 7, 1997 Aleph, Michael Demetrios Channel A, Peggy Liu CitySearch, Charles Conn Consumer's Edge, Steve Tomlin Electric Minds, Howard Rheingold GeoCities, David Bohnett HotMail, Sabeer Bhatia Mercury Mail, John Funk The Mining Co., Scott Kurnit Mpath Interactive, Tom Garland The Palace, Michael Maerz Preview Travel, Kenneth J. Orton Quote.com, Chris Cooper Salon, David Talbot Silicon Investor, Jeff Dryer Sonicnet, David Freidenshon Starwave, Mike Slade Total Entertainment Network (TEN), Jack Heistand Vicinity, Harold Logan Warner Bros. Online, Jim Moloshok WebChat Broadcasting System, Michael Fremont Wire Networks, Marleen McDaniel Internet Tools and Services Tuesday, April 8, 1997 Accrue Software, Simon Roy Aptex Software, Michael Thiemann BackWeb, Eli Barkat Black Sun Interactive, Franz Buchenberger Calico Technology, Robert Payne DataChannel, David Pool Diffusion, James R. Gagnard Dimension X, Karl Jacob Firefly Network, Nicholas Grouf HAHT Software, Richard Holcomb Infoscape, Paul King Intermind, Dave Arnold Interse, Terry Myerson Kiva Software, Skip Glass Marimba, Kim Polese NetDynamics, Zack Rinat NetGravity, John Danner Netiva, Steve Pollock NetObjects, Samir Arora Net Perceptions, John Riedl RandomNoise, Fred Krueger Tumbleweed Software, Jeffrey Smith ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: [CANSLIM] Fw: TA says bears are here Date: 07 Apr 1997 20:55:47 -0400 One of the more intelligent TA reviews I have seen lately. Will watch for an update after today's action. tom w ---------- > From: Ztrade > Newsgroups: misc.invest.stocks > Subject: TA says bears are here > Date: Sunday, April 06, 1997 9:45 PM > > TA program results for DJ-30 as of market close on 04/04/97 > > NOTE: > > This TA evaluates market activity, not fundamentals. > Use it to help in timing trading/investment decisions, not making them. > > > TA for DJ-30 04/04/97 > > Pattern............DECLINING TOPS (last top formation 03/11/97) > > Trading Cycle..... selling > > Closing Price...... 6526 > 2 wk. Target....... 6448 based on cycle trendline > 3 mo. Forcast..... 6014 based on primary trendline > > resist area........ 6684 increased selling likely here > Resist Area........ 6848 accelerated selling likely here > > > [ technical factors ] scale : (-) 10 bearish ....|.... bullish 10 (+) > > Rel Strength....... -10 price level stability > Tech Status........ -10 technical rating > Demand Margin..... -10 buying pressure > Primary Trend...... -10 near-term performance > Investor Interest.. -4 investor participation > Trader Activity.... -10 trader positioning > Seller Resistance. -2 selling pressure > Market Mood....... -8 market sentiment > > Remarks: Well, after a long bull run, looks like the market as measured > by the DJ Industrials has established a significant top and is finally in > a > bearish trend. Technicals are very poor in all areas except selling > pressure > and investor interest which are weak.The market could rally but > it will likely be a bull trap. Expect resistance around the 6680 level if > it > does. More probable, is a fairly rapid decline to the 6000 area. If you > are long, you should consider reducing or protecting your positions > with puts or some other approach. If you are on the sidelines, it would > be a good strategy to stay in cash and watch and wait for a bottom > formation. Those of you who like to short, near-term opportunities > abound. > > > TA source: http://www.sharesmart.com > > ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: musicant@autobahn.org (Dan Musicant) Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] O'Neil's free seminar Date: 08 Apr 1997 01:10:03 GMT On Mon, 7 Apr 1997 13:50:41 -0700 (PDT), you wrote: : :Has anybody attended William O'Neil's free seminar? :Is is trageted for beginners, or will it help those who are already :well versed with the CANSLIM technique. : :-Sabeel I will repost the content of a message I sent yesterday on this very subject below. I was certainly not well versed in CANSLIM when I attended last October or so. I got a 5 - 10 minute briefing on my way there, but I was very impressed with the presentation. You will not regret going if you are at all interested. Quoted: ---- My first connection with CANSLIM was to go see O'Neil deliver an address in a sort of auditorium last October or so. They gave out free audio tapes and two weeks free IBD. WJO showed charts after explaining CANSLIM and then fielded questions. My ride dragged me out of there...I didn't want to leave. I believe he asserted several times while pointing to steeply rising charts with a long stick that he would consider buying more at various points as stocks continued to rise. There is no hard and fast rule, and the message was at least in part that every chart tells a different story, and WJO read them each as if he were seeing it for the first time as he analyzed it. It was to give an idea of the sorts of things one might deduce... If you ever get a chance to see O'Neil give one of these addresses, check it out. I believe you can call IBD or check out the newspaper for details. Dan ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Brenda" Subject: [CANSLIM] Fw: [Fwd: Re: [Fwd: Free Cookie recipe ]] Date: 07 Apr 1997 20:39:51 -0500 This is a multi-part message in MIME format. ------=_NextPart_000_01BC4393.D76C8C40 Content-Type: text/plain; charset=ISO-8859-1 Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit ---------- > From: Jane > To: Newbie's > Subject: [Fwd: Re: [Fwd: Free Cookie recipe ]] > Date: Monday, April 07, 1997 11:40 AM > > My apologies to this group! aparently I inadvertently hit this address > from my address book when sending the N-M joke. It is a hoax whic I have > learned since and obviously the joke is on me, but that is okay because > I just found my eldest child and spoke with him for the first time in 30 > years. I have a right to be elated to the point of 'stupidity'! > > I believe, had the story been true, not a hoax, that N-M would have sued > someone many years ago so I don't plan to fret much as to whether it is > copywritten. I believe if it is, that the originator is acknowledged > within the work, so I'm not sure they'd have a case anyway. > > If the flame-happy folks of this group want to flame me for this > mistake, go for it! It is the reason I don't contribute to this group - > pettiness bores me. If any of you have lived your entire life to this > point without making a mistake, you deserve the opportunity to throw > stones at me ... if you've made your own mistakes, then take this > opportunity to laugh with me as I laugh at myself for my error. > > Please, Paul, this is not meant to antagonize you in any way. I do > appreciate your advice. I have just watched this group be about as > un-newbie-friendly as any list I belong to and figure this apology was > also my opportunity to acknowledge those observations... > > Take it with a grain of salt & if the shoe fits.... > > Thank you Paul, and others who understand... > > Hugs, > Jane > ------=_NextPart_000_01BC4393.D76C8C40 Content-Type: message/rfc822 Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit Received: from sky.net (root@solar.sky.net [198.70.175.2]) by megalink.net (8.8.5/8.7.3) with ESMTP id LAA05773 for ; Mon, 7 Apr 1997 11:29:08 -0400 (EDT) Received: from solar.sky.net (ip86.sky.net [205.242.50.86]) by sky.net (8.7.5/8.7.3) with SMTP id KAA19242 for ; Mon, 7 Apr 1997 10:28:59 -0500 (CDT) Message-Id: <3.0.16.19970407103115.0d9fcc8a@sky.net> X-Sender: price@sky.net X-Mailer: Windows Eudora Pro Version 3.0 (16) Mime-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="us-ascii" Jane, first, this doesn't have anything to do with Genealogy. Second, you can be sued by N-M for spreading what you know to be Copyrighted material, regardless of where you got it. Third, I'd expect some rather serious flames for this if I were you. Don't be surprised. Just a couple of friendly words of advice. At 08:00 AM 4/7/97 -0400, you wrote: >Cookie anyone? Pass it on... ------=_NextPart_000_01BC4393.D76C8C40-- ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Brenda" Subject: [CANSLIM] "Possible" Stocks To Watch Date: 07 Apr 1997 20:48:28 -0500 Over teh week-end several of you asked for some stocks to check out. First, their on no CANSLIM numbers on these picks. They were basically, first picked because of their graph (aka - price pattern) shape. Before, I were to purchase any of these, of course there is much more homework for me to do. I am just "sharing" some information with you that you can use as you see fit. Anytime a stock that is OVER $100 and is trading 2 and 3 million shares a day I want to know why. I know my Aunt Matilda is not doing all the buying. TBR has closed UP the last five days in a row, the last three being new 52 week highs. SVM has completed a buy back, per my info, but just continues to advance. Is the advance over? Who knows. I just know that for the last five days in a row it has closed at new 52 week highs. Some of the other stocks that I am watching closely who closed today at new 52 week highs are: ALTR, ASTSF, ASMLF(not intra-day but close of day), BMCS, ENML, HRS, MLHR, PSUN, TER & TUES. Some of their graphs are plain scary. QNTM has been up the last five days in a row. AMAT up the last five days in a row. CPWR up the last five days in a row. Oh well, some of you asked for stocks to look at so hope these fit the bill. Good luck and remember - I AM NOT TOUTING A SINGLE ONE OF THESE. Do your own homework and if you feel froggy - Jump. Have a good night and let's hope for another day or two like today even if it does prove to be just a bounce. That's when stop loss orders come in real handy. James ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: mike zedek Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] stock ticker to stock name list Date: 07 Apr 1997 17:13:47 +0100 Thanks for the list.. I will keep it for reference!!! Jonathan Polito - Lucent ASCC wrote: > > I tried to send out a list of tickers to names but I neglected to > check the size of the list which bounced on some ISPs mail > servers. The list is over 300K. You can find the list of tickers/names > archived at: > ftp://ftp.xmission.com/pub/lists/canslim/archive/v01.n130 > > Download the archive, then cut and paste the list out... > > Enjoy, > Jonathan. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Michael R. Jeffers" Subject: [CANSLIM] The REAL Reason The Market Was Up Date: 07 Apr 1997 21:04:53 I can't believe that you all have made market comentary without noting this most important fact gleened for Yahoo: Federal Reserve Chief Weds TV Reporter WASHINGTON (Reuter) - U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan and NBC television correspondent Andrea Mitchell were married Sunday in what has been dubbed the capital's wedding of the year. The private ceremony took place at the elegant Inn at Little Washington in Washington, Virginia, with Supreme Court Associate Justice Ruth Bader Ginsberg officiating, according to NBC officials and a friend of the couple. The couple's 75 guests were brought to the quaint Virignia town located about 1 1/2 hours away from Washington in buses stocked with champagne. The bride, 50, is NBC's chief foreign affairs correspondent, based in Washington. The bridegroom, 71, has been the Federal Reserve chairman since 1987. The bride's first marriage ended in divorce. The bridegroom's first marriage was annulled. In a recent interview Mitchell said the couple would not honeymoon right away because of their hectic schedules. Guests included ABC's Barbara Walters and her friend, Sen. John Warner, ABC's David Brinkley, former Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Colin Powell, and former U.S. Secretary of State Henry Kissinger. Just Little 'Ole Me, Michael R. Jeffers ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Michael A Langston Subject: re: [CANSLIM] O'Neil's free seminar Date: 08 Apr 1997 00:08:25 -0400 > The talk is pitched to sell the newspaper you're a quick study derek > Wm O'Neil will be speaking at Bally's now why does that strike me as appropriate? :) mike ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Michael A Langston Subject: re: [CANSLIM] CANSLIM - New Member Date: 08 Apr 1997 00:15:53 -0400 > I am wondering if anyone has any experience > with the following newsletters save your $ valere -- if you want to play another's pix, it's cheaper and less stressful simply to buy a no-load fund > I have been looking at Market Facts... > Based on my studies, it looks great MFAC -- awfully thin (less that 13k shares traded today) -- and a 2 buck spread on a 20 dollar stock is highway robbery -- JMHO mike ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] CANSLIM - New Member Date: 08 Apr 1997 00:38:15 -0400 Come on Mike, how about that usual laconic style, let's hear what you really think! tom w ---------- > From: Michael A Langston > To: canslim@mail.xmission.com > Subject: re: [CANSLIM] CANSLIM - New Member > Date: Tuesday, April 08, 1997 12:15 AM > > save your $ valere -- if you want to play another's pix, it's > > > I have been looking at Market Facts... > > MFAC -- awfully thin (less that 13k shares traded today) -- and > a 2 buck spread on a 20 dollar stock is highway robbery -- JMHO > > mike ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] The REAL Reason The Market Was Up Date: 08 Apr 1997 00:35:04 -0400 Yeah, but you gotta remember, this is in line with Greenspan's cautious approach, after all he dated her for 12 years before proposing last year! Now let's hear it for euphoria! tom w ---------- > From: Michael R. Jeffers > To: canslim@mail.xmission.com > Subject: [CANSLIM] The REAL Reason The Market Was Up > Date: Monday, April 07, 1997 5:04 PM > > I can't believe that you all have made market comentary without noting this > most important fact gleened for Yahoo: > > Federal Reserve Chief Weds TV Reporter ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Michael A Langston Subject: re: [CANSLIM] CANSLIM - New Member Date: 08 Apr 1997 00:50:24 -0400 > Come on Mike, how about that usual laconic style, let's hear what you > really think! shucks tom, i figured by calling a $2 spread merely "highway robbery" you'd recognize me for the milktoast, soft-spoken type that i am -- i can't say in public what i'd really call such a !@#$%^&*ing spread :) mike ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Louis H. Gipson, RN" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Daily Graphs subscription Date: 07 Apr 1997 22:29:35 -0700 Tom Worley wrote: > > call 800-472-7479, a five week trial, 5 issues of both vol (OTC/AMEX > and NYSE) costs $28 plus$15 shipping and handling. > > tom w > ---------- Hi Tom, Thanks for the above information. I will be ordering it tomorrow. Someone mentioned it is going to be available online in mid April. Do you know anything about this and if so, any opinion on the paper versus online version? Also, would the Quote Plus program and daily update subscription complement the DG or possibly confuse the issue. I have been trying the screening tools I use for the NAIC but, not surprisingly, they don't quite work. Different goals which I am keeping separate from CANSLIM. A couple of basic questions if you will. Are you looking for companies first through the graphs or through the quarterly reports which show the desired increased growth rate? Which is first, the chicken or the egg???(((grin))) Once you select a company, do you go as deeply into it as I would with the NAIC, i.e. getting 10K, 10Q's, annual reports, news reports, Value Line/S&P reports, etc. Like I said, different method. These questions will make a nice first few steps. Thanks one and all in advance!! Louis Gipson,RN ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] ASMLF Date: 07 Apr 1997 21:52:13 -0400 Good job, James. I had told some of my brokers about MLHR (none of them had heard of it before) last week, and have kept pointing it out to them as it held up well thru the correction. I got asked a lot where I found it, my simple answer "James told me". tom w ---------- > From: Brenda > To: canslim > Subject: [CANSLIM] ASMLF > Date: Monday, April 07, 1997 5:19 PM > > The stocks I mentioned before the opening bell this morning did as > follows: MLHR up 3 1/8, TUES up 3, PSUN up 1 1/4, SFDS up 1 3/16, ASTSF up > 3/4, GDYS down 1/8, AMD up 1 3/4. Not all days can be like this one but > it's day like this that make it fun, worthwhile and profitable. TODAY alone > made up ALL losses incurred over the last 30 days. Sorry if I sound a ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: elainlev@juno.com (Elaine Levey) Subject: [CANSLIM] Re: canslim abbreviations Date: 08 Apr 1997 01:57:07 EDT What does IMHO mean? Also, HGS? ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Rick-Canslim no workee Date: 07 Apr 1997 21:53:53 -0400 I'm still waiting for an intro and some background on professional and investing experience. tom w ---------- > From: Luke.Lang@sv.sc.philips.com > To: canslim@mail.xmission.com > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Rick-Canslim no workee > Date: Monday, April 07, 1997 5:16 PM > > > Now, you mentioned "Volume Study" as one of your preferred > > "methods" of investing. I am curious as to what you mean > > by this, especially given the importance volume has within > > the canslim framework. Please explain as much of it as you > > feel comfortable explaining. > > > > Rick, > > I think Zoran has a good suggestion. So far, you have said > that you have a better method than CANSLIM and you want to > prove it through a contest. I don't care for contests because > they don't contribute to my learning and future money-making > abilities. If you have a better method, I would like to hear > about it. If you were ready to start the contest with some > picks, please share them and the reasons why you would pick them. > I am sure you will get some response back with disagreement and > criticism, but that's how we learn. Perhaps, you might be able > to refine your method to work even better. > > As for keeping score, you can update us periodically with the > progress of your picks along with what went right and what went > wrong. I hope the group will allow this. Good luck to all! > > Luke Lang ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] A contest could be fun, educational Date: 05 Apr 1997 18:18:41 -0500 This sounds like another rigid Sandbox/FinalBell game. No thanks, I play my game with real money in a real, live, real time market. No "1st of the month" picks for me. Frankly I would like to see this group get back to CANSLIM, post your ideas (preferably with your interpretation of how they fit CANSLIM, don't just throw a symbol or name out and let someone else dig up the data for you) then be prepared to defend it. Play it on paper or for real, your choice. Frankly, this group is getting thin on comments, feedback, ideas, and basic CANSLIM discussion. In the past two days, two different people have posted some picks they like. Neither included any CANSLIM data, thus I don't even have a glimmer whether it is worth my time to go look at them, but I will because the two individuals understand CANSLIM. However, since then, I have not seen anyone respond back with questions, challenge, discussion or anything else. Let's get this group back on topic or I'm outta here! tom w ---------- > From: derek b > To: canslim@mail.xmission.com > Subject: [CANSLIM] A contest could be fun, educational > Date: Saturday, April 05, 1997 4:26 PM > > Rick's style is a bit brash, but he opens up a significant opportunity, > in my opinion. It is my experience that even the most ardent CANSLIM > adherents modify WON's methods to better fit that individual's preferred > investment timeframe and particular interpretation of current market > conditions. > > Thus, an opportunity to test one's modifications against others' picks > in a periodic contest would be fun and educational. I have entered such ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] The Market Date: 07 Apr 1997 22:16:48 -0400 OK, I was going to post a mkt summary tonight anyway, so will play contrarian to your contrarian (at least we are talking about the mkt). Quick snapshot: yes, the mkt did open up strongly, however NASDAQ then continued on (mostly the techs) to reach an up 1.5% level and even greater during the day. More importantly the NYSE and NASDAQ held their high levels most of the day. Late in the session, NYSE in particular was hit by waves of program driven computer trading, and I suspect we will see more tomorrow. Adv/dec on NYSE was low but marginally positive, on NASDAQ it was still ugly and got worse as the day went on. Encouraging for tomorrow were pos earnings surprises by both AMD and MOT, stay tuned to my "Mkt comments" for more earnings forecasts from 1st call and Bear, along with an economic calendar for the week. With Friday's action closing near the day's highs, could consider today as a follow-thru were it not for the disappointing vol. tom w ---------- > From: pwahl@postoffice.worldnet.att.net > To: canslim@xmission.com > Subject: [CANSLIM] The Market > Date: Monday, April 07, 1997 5:29 PM > > Alright Tom, here is my attempt at a market commentary, word to the > wise, treat me as a contrary indicator.. > > All of todays market action happened in the first five minutes of > trading, believe it or not. 5 minutes after the market opened, the > Dow was up 52 points, S&P maybe 5 points, NASDAQ was up around 12. > Market has just closed and it did an end of day fade, with the DOw > looking like it will finish with a 29 point gain, the S&P around 4 > Advance Decline numbers were good, but volume not so impressive. I > have a feeling this may simply be a bounce off of oversold levels, as ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Re: canslim abbreviations Date: 08 Apr 1997 06:56:33 -0400 IMHO is just a net shorthand for "In My Humble Opinion" HGS is a CANSLIM and other investing groups shorthand for "High Growth Stocks" tom w ---------- > From: Elaine Levey > To: canslim@xmission.com > Cc: canslim-digest@xmission.com > Subject: [CANSLIM] Re: canslim abbreviations > Date: Tuesday, April 08, 1997 1:57 AM > > What does IMHO mean? > Also, HGS? ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: [CANSLIM] Fw: Market Comments, April 7, 1997 Date: 08 Apr 1997 06:58:37 -0400 Sent this twice last night, and still don't see it, nor any comments to it, so suspect was never received. Assuming this time succeeds, sorry for the late delay, I tried. tom w ---------- > From: Tom Worley > To: CANSLIM > Subject: Market Comments, April 7, 1997 > Date: Monday, April 07, 1997 11:45 PM > > My first cautionary remark is aimed at the bond mkt. Today's "rally" > appears to have been virtually entirely short covering, which actually > started on Friday. Yields on the long bond, probably the intermediate > term paper, and even possibly the very short term paper, are not > consistent with the recent Fed rate hike, much less with the wide > spread expectation of a 25 bp (or more, my opinion) hike in May. > > Gold continues to reflect the lack of inflation "risk" due to timely > action to prevent real inflation creeping in by the Feds. The Feds are > raising rates due to the "threat" of inflation in the future, their job > is to prevent that ever happening. I mention this as I have seen > several comments on various NGs speculating that if inflation is out > there, isn't gold a good investment? In addition, we now have inflation > pegged treasury notes (or bonds, forget which) which offer a safer and > more liquid vehicle. I expect gold and other precious metals to remain > in a neutral to bearish market. > > The dollar rallied strongly today, hitting new 50 month highs against > the yen and mark. Primary reason, the Feds won't use it as a trading > device. Remember that I see a strong dollar at this point, which hurts > exports, increases imports, and increases the trade imbalance, as > inflationary. While it will help other country's economy, it will hurt > the US economy. I suspect the Feds are willing to let a strong dollar > run because it will help slow the sudden and rapid economic growth > spurt; and will help keep US interest rates favorable, thus attracting > foreign investments and help keep down the cost of servicing the huge > nat'l debt. > > Action today was good for the oversold tech stock groups. Even IBM, > despite recent cuts in earnings forecasts, managed to tack on over 4 > pts (note that vol was only 2.6 mil shares, avg daily is 4.1 mil). > DELL, CPQ, and HWP surprised me with their weakness, but they have done > relatively well lately and this may be hurting them now. The networking > group showed an across the board strength, but this group was probably > the most oversold. As I already mentioned earlier, the highs of the day > were severely undercut by program driven computer related selling. HDCO > was again strong, I suspect it is close to completing its secondary, I > was unable to get either stock or convertible debt from the > underwriters, suggesting they have been able to place it without a > problem. A number of groups will likely benefit from the positive > earnings surprises posted by both AMD and MOT. This could help drive > the tech groups to another 1% up day tomorrow, but watch out for the > computer programs. > > New hi/lows on NASDAQ says to me that we are still bouncing off recent > lows: 57 new highs and 145 new lows. This indicator was never pretty > throughout the day. On NYSE, it was barely positive, 49 to 42. Volume > on both exchanges was also disappointing, esp with the programs kicking > in late in the session. Up/down vol was better than 2:1, still > suggesting a big cap rally, which is what I think this is. > > I am particularly concerned about the bond mkt not only not beginning > to adjust to a May hike, but even giving up some of the March hike > adjustment. > > Bank stocks were boosted by a merger announcement, but also have failed > to adjust to another rate hike. Brokerage house prices were aided both > by the merger news as well as recent solid earnings growth. > > Oil stocks appear to be moving higher on expectation of strong Q1 nrs, > but expect this to be temporary. > > Looks like I missed my entry point on the short side of AOL, all > parties to its acquisition down measurably today. > > Trouble at Nike (production dropping) tanked it over 4 pts today, along > with a ratings cut by Smith Barney. > > The Russell 2000 continues to hold up, for reference since the highs in > January, Ru2000 fell 9.2%, NASDAQ 13.5% (so much for my call of an 8% > correction), and the NASDAQ computer index fell 18%. (BTW, I blame my > "miss" on the lack of stamina by the financials groups, it's all their > fault, really, it is!). Information you probably didn't need: the PE > (trailing) of the S&P500 as of the close was 19.72, Friday it was > 19.61, and a year ago it was about (due changes in index makeup) 19.27. > The lowest PE on this index was Q2 of 1949, when it was down to 5.9. > The low in the last decade was 11.7 in Q4 1988, and the all time high > was 24.9 in Q1 1992. > > We are still seeing some neg preannouncements, however they all seem to > be small non-leadership cos. If this cycle continues like it has > started, it could substantially bolster the mkt. Already, it seems to > have wiped out virtually all fears of another rate hike. Of course, > once again, that rapid a change in sentiment disturbs me. > > BTW, consumer credit continues to grow at what I view as alarming, > inflationary rates. Retailer profits grew slightly (2.4% of sales > compared to 1.7% a year ago) while mfr's profits shrank (down to 6.1% > of sales). We are already seeing record highs in bankruptcy, it is > likely to only get worse. > > ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK: > Thursday - Initial Jobless Claims - consensus 311,000, concur > Thursday - Money Supply (M2) - consensus up $5 bil, no opinion > Friday - Retail Sales - consensus up 0.5%, I expect slightly higher > Friday - PPI (a major report) - consensus no change, I expect plus > 0.2% > > EARNINGS CALENDAR (from First Call and Bear Stearns): > (I apologize in advance if the tab stops don't come thru right, no time > to spacebar) > Stock Due 1st call bear actual > AMD MON (.02) (0.09) +.09 > MOT MON .45 .44 .53 > STI TUE .73 > ABT WED .68 > ALTR WED .33 > BBI WED .77 > BBY WED .00 > DJ WED .24 > WDC THU 1.50 > ASND THU .33 > ATML THU .37 > CSCC THU .21 > C THU 1.43 > FTU THU 1.66 > JPM THU 1.92 (a Dow 30 stock) > and of course no one important dares to report on Friday > > FOLLOWING WEEK (just from Bear): > LU .05 VS 1.33 > AUD MON .57 VS .49 > INTC MON 2.02 VS 1.02 > SUNW TUE .47 VS .37 > TXN TUE .58 VS .84 > AAPL WED (.98) VS (1.78) > CPQ WED 1.30 VS .85 > DEC THU .22 VS .74 > > Remember, how a stock reports compared to what is expected is far more > important, at least short term, than how it does compared to the year > prior (which has already been taken into account in its price). > > Will post last two weeks of April later, not trying to be all inclusive > here, the net can do that, just picking out some better known symbols, > esp techs. > > Hope this provides some "food for thought" and even a mini-checklist, > as the week progresses. > > tom w > > Any opinions are strictly my own and not that of my employer. > My comments are based on a variety of sources as well as my > experience as an investor and a stock broker and are intended > strictly to assist and inform. In no way am I suggesting a buy, > sell, or hold decision based on my comments or observations. > I always urge an investor to do his or her own homework, and > be sure the risk of the market can be tolerated and any losses > accepted gracefully. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: [CANSLIM] Insider buys and sells Date: 08 Apr 1997 07:48:10 -0400 If anyone wants an example of how misleading insider buys and sells can be, look at the chart on PAGE. There was one buy in Nov in the mid teens, then three more in Jan at same price. Stock now is 7.5 tom w ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: [CANSLIM] Recent "picks" mentioned Date: 08 Apr 1997 08:01:21 -0400 Thought I could use the mental exercise, and maybe find some new ideas I liked, so did a fast review of ones mentioned here past day or so. Here is what I found: From Valere, one of our new members: Market Facts, a marketing research co - the large spread confuses the chart, does seem to have a cup and handle, but would not consider it "perfect" as too shallow and right side too high. Vol too thin for major institutional play, no funds, banks 17%. Earnings look very strong, but day to day vol very erratic. From Brian Nash: he's right charts look bad, I found enough fault with both TAROF and MDCC that I did not print the charts. Not sure what this tells us about trying to use trailing vs projected PE as another selection input. Too small a sample, I guess. Brian, have you found others that tracked well with CANSLIM using this approach? From James (Brenda): Out of a sizable list, none really caught my attention except still like Miller Herman (MLHR). Looks like it is still within 5% of a small base and about 8% or so over the 50dma. There is a larger, smoother base back at 65. RS 90, EPS 96, a/d A. Also PSUN may be worth watching, moving up on light vol, RS 99, EPS 84, a/d A. tom w ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "David F. Cameron" Subject: [CANSLIM] Mergers Date: 08 Apr 1997 7:42:49 CDT I'm looking for info on what you do when you own a stock that has just been announced as a takeover. With all the mergers floating around, I guess its inevitable I finally hit one. Usually... I don't find the takeover candidates because they are more in the line of value plays - but every so often - esp. now in a "correction" mode, I guess I can hit one. Anyway, O'Neill doesn't mention much on mergers. I haven't seen the chart on the acquiring company, just the one being acquired. Not really looking for advice, just wondering if any of you have rules you use here - or things you look at. Dave Cameron dcameron@harper.cc.il.us ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Robert Gammon" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] O'Neil's free seminar Date: 08 Apr 1997 07:58:00 +0500 On Mon, 07 Apr 1997 19:29:29 -0400, derek b wrote: >I would venture that the majority of members of this list have >attended. Some keep returning at every possible opportunity. The talk >is pitched to sell the newspaper - IBD. But it's laced with current >market commentary and current selections. WON suggested a defensive >posture in early April '97 in Orlando. Count me as one who has never attended the seminar. Never heard about it other than in this mail list. Read the local paper (Houston Chronicle) EVERY day. Perhaps Mr O'Neil doesn't believe that there are enough potential customers for his products in the 4th largest city in the U.S. > > Thus, you'll find a little for everyone - novice, intermediate, old >hand. For those in the Las Vegas area, Wm O'Neil will be speaking at >Bally's on Tuesday April 29. Check IBD or local papers. > >Derek > >> >> Has anybody attended William O'Neil's free seminar? >> Is is trageted for beginners, or will it help those who are already >> well versed with the CANSLIM technique. >> >> -Sabeel > *----------------------------------------------------* Robert Gammon My opinions are my own. rgammon@micro.ti.com In no way am I representing 281-274-3299 voice the views of my employer. 281-274-2558 fax *----------------------------------------------------* ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Jonathan Polito - Lucent ASCC Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] SFDS Date: 08 Apr 1997 09:13:37 -0400 >>>>> "James" == Brenda writes: James> Tom, I posted SFDS for several reasons. Almost all of the James> stocks on my base have come from the Week-End Review section of James> IBD. This guarantees that the stock meets many of the CANSLIM James> criteria. I have always wondered about stocks that appear in James> this section which under the Mutual Interest column are James> blank. NO Mutual fund own any of this stocks shares or maybe James> IBD is not aware of whether they do or not, or (any other I believe their mutual fund interest numbers are only updated quarterly - so a position could have been established from the last reported qtr. James> ideas). Just to be here we know the EPS and REL numbers are James> appropriate. Also Accumulation is going to be there. The James> question I had was, If you look you can see a cup and a James> handle. (OK, not as great as we would like to see, but in this James> market maybe I stretch a little from time to time and yes that James> stretching can get me in trouble). You can also see a break-out I don't really see a bona-fide cup+handle. The only thing I see close to it (on a recent, short term scale) is between 12/27/96 - 3/25/97. This is on a daily, log chart. James> hitting a new high on over 50% increase in volume. However, my James> graph shows, as a stock which does this often does, that it James> jumped 5%+ from the previous top. Do, you, actually never James> purchase a stock where this happens. Many times you find the James> stock AFTER this break out has occurred. To buy some right you James> would have to be watching it minute by minute and could even James> actually miss the buy point this way. I am asking, with a stock James> like this, with a graph (aka-price pattern) like this where do James> YOU draw your upper purchase limit? Would love to hear your James> answer. Thanks James This is one of the problems I and my friends have often complained about with IBD's stocks to display. They almost always seem to show them after the have significantly broken out. I would say the buy point on SFDS would be on 3/25 when the day closed above the handle high (2/25) on big vol. That looks like an ok buy point to me. As far as buying much beyond the break-out point, you increase your risk. You must always evaluate your risk/reward. - Jonathan. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Brenda" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Mergers Date: 08 Apr 1997 08:17:37 -0500 I always liked one of the things that WJO says about owning a stock and continuing to own a stock. He says to imagine that you do NOT own the stock but rather have the cash in your hand/pocket that it would cost to buy the stock at this particular time. If that were the case would you give up the cash in your hand to make the purchase. If not, you better look closer at your position you are holding. With that in mind, I look at the acquiring company and decide would I want to own it and would I buy it where it is. I have owned TWO such in the last 30 days. Owned OXFD as it became BBI and owned GRTR, which is to become ASFC. Was not particularly thrilled with the graph of either acquiring company. The company I had bought graphs looked good, the acquiring companies I would not only not have bought, I would not have given either a second look. Guess you know what I have done with the stock I originally bought. Just food for thought. Have a good day. James ---------- > From: David F. Cameron > To: canslim@xmission.com > Subject: [CANSLIM] Mergers > Date: Tuesday, April 08, 1997 7:42 AM > > I'm looking for info on what you do when you own a stock > that has just been announced as a takeover. With all > the mergers floating around, I guess its inevitable I > finally hit one. Usually... I don't find the takeover > candidates because they are more in the line of value > plays - but every so often - esp. now in a "correction" > mode, I guess I can hit one. > > Anyway, O'Neill doesn't mention much on mergers. I > haven't seen the chart on the acquiring company, just > the one being acquired. > > Not really looking for advice, just wondering if any > of you have rules you use here - or things you look at. > > Dave Cameron > dcameron@harper.cc.il.us ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: PPNewell@aol.com Subject: [CANSLIM] Test 9:40am EDT Date: 08 Apr 1997 09:20:25 -0400 (EDT) Test, haven't receive anything for 24hr ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "David F. Cameron" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] O'Neil's free seminar Date: 08 Apr 1997 8:15:10 CDT Robert Gammon writes: > EVERY day. Perhaps Mr O'Neil doesn't believe that there are enough > potential customers for his products in the 4th largest city in the > U.S. Nah... he just doesn't like Houston ;-> Orlando has Disney World, Los Angeles is home, Vegas has gambling.... Houston has... um.... Seriously O'Neil seems to have a regular circuit of sorts. It seesm that the cities he visits get revisited -- I live in Chicago, he has been here several times - but I lived in Detroit for several years (the 6th largest or 7th in the U.S.) and he's never been there. Maybe he clumps Houston in with Detroit ;-> OK.... I couldn't resist... Dave Cameron dcameron@harper.cc.il.us ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Michael A Langston Subject: re: [CANSLIM] Fw: Market Comments, April 7, 1997 Date: 08 Apr 1997 09:47:15 -0400 > Sent this twice last night, and still don't see it great stuff tom -- too bad something held it up on the first try oh well, it looks like we may have plenty of time for the ISP to get fixed before we see another good HGS market anyway hmmm, so many were calling for a trader's bounce yesterday, it was probably predictable that it would turn into a game of chicken for those who wanted to stay glued to their r-t quotes -- looks like a soft open today... mike ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Michael A Langston Subject: re: [CANSLIM] Insider buys and sells Date: 08 Apr 1997 09:50:25 -0400 > PAGE...one buy in Nov in the mid teens, then three more > in Jan...Stock now is 7.5... hey, if you liked it at 15 you gotta love it at... nevermind, i can't say it with a straight face :) mike ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Andrew Poon Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Insider buys and sells Date: 08 Apr 1997 14:50:11 +0100 At 07:48 AM 4/8/97 -0400, you wrote: >If anyone wants an example of how misleading insider buys and sells can >be, look at the chart on PAGE. There was one buy in Nov in the mid >teens, then three more in Jan at same price. Stock now is 7.5 > >tom w > Same happened with PHII. Insiders bought several millions dollars of shares two months ago at 22 and then at 18. Now trading at 17.5 Andy ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: jeff@scrooge.idec.sdl.usu.edu (Jeff Salisbury) Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Hurrah - A "small" breather Date: 08 Apr 1997 08:09:09 -0600 Tom: I am not saying that canslim doesn't work or is not one of the best methods for selecting stocks. I am only telling you that I have not been that impressed with the testing that I have done with canslim. I continue to search for methods, including canslim that will ultimately prove to be superior to any other method. I think it is important in the search for truth for objective and verifiable evidence. You say you have used it for five years and found it to be the best "philosophy" as long as you followed the rules. What have you compared it with to say it is the best? Are you sure that not following the rules was the reason you did not perform well? Are you sure that following the rules was the reason you did well? Or was it maybe you just held on to the stock either too long or not long enough? I would be interested in seeing (from those who frequent this site) the actual history of stock picks, both good ones and bad ones under the canslim method and then analyzing the data to try and figure out what worked and why or what failed and why. I respect O'Neil and have read his book and think he knows what he is talking about. But what I think may or may not have anything to do with reality until it is tested. Good Luck Tom, Rick Miller ---------- > From: Tom Worley > To: canslim@mail.xmission.com > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Hurrah - A "small" breather > Date: Saturday, April 05, 1997 8:58 AM > > Rick, > Not sure why you have found CANSLIM to be unreliable, but I have been > using it for over five years, and found it to be far and away the best > "philosophy" there is so long as I follow the rules. When I don't, I > usually find I made a bad decision. If you don't like O'Neill's CANSLIM > approach, keep in mind that this is a CANSLIM group, therefore the vast > majority of stocks that will be suggested are likely to be CANSLIM > based. > good luck > > tom w > ---------- > > From: Rick Miller > > To: canslim@mail.xmission.com > > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Hurrah - A "small" breather > > Date: Saturday, April 05, 1997 9:50 AM > > > > I don't know how you selected them, but let me suggest that you keep > track > > of them and give a performance report monthly over the next 12 months > and > > > you find. I have tested the canslim method and have not found it to > be > > very reliable. I am constantly testing. Testing becomes easier when > you > ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Johan Van Houtven Subject: [CANSLIM] Market Facts Date: 08 Apr 1997 09:50:54 +0200 Valere wrote: >I have been looking at Market Facts. I can't apply >all of the CANSLIM criteria, but I'll try. It has an EPS=99, RP=99 , A/C=A. It >is near new highs. It has approx. 140,000,000 shares, volume=100,000 >yesterday, but much higher when it is rising. I don't know it's institutional >sponsorship. It seems to have a perfect cup w/handle, except the high/low >spread each day may be too much. Based on my studies, it looks great, but...I >don't have the confidence to put my money where my mouth is. > >I appreciate any help you feel you can share. Are you talking about MFAC? If so, last time I looked at it, a few days ago, it had an ugly spread bid: 19, ask: 21. I thought it had max 2 mio shares, but I'll check again this afternone when I get on the Web. As to buying it: I wouldn't buy anything at the moment until the 'M' factir of CANSLIM is looking good again. --- Johan Van Houtven ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Michael A Langston Subject: re: [CANSLIM] Mergers Date: 08 Apr 1997 10:16:48 -0400 > I'm looking for info on what you do when you own a stock > that has just been announced as a takeover. i tell ya dave (assuming it really is a takeover, there have been a lot of takeunders lately), the one thing i think is most important is this: immediately jump up and down, exclaiming "damn i'm good!" "get back, he's hot!" "yes there is a god!" -- stuff like that then, after my wife sees all the fuss and reminds me of some of my, uh, less rewarding trades (some of those sure temper my enthusiasm), i crash back to earth and realize i just got lucky that's why you gotta do the jumping-screaming thing first -- if you wait a few minutes, reality sets in and you'll miss the whole party!! oh, but maybe you mean what do you do with your shares :) -- i look at the acquiring company, and if it's a great outfit that's likely to bring the acquired company to it's bottom line asap, i consider holding on -- can't recall ever buying more -- but i usually take the money and run mike ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Brenda" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Hurrah - A "small" breather Date: 08 Apr 1997 09:40:00 -0500 To Whom It May Concern: ONCE AGAIN, a message from somebody who is "not too impressed" with CANSLIM. Are you begging for proof? Do you want us to do the proof for you? If we did would you believe it then? When the weatherman says it is going to rain today do you have to wait until you are soaking wet before putting up the umbrella? When so many are following his system that L. Naveller is crying because it is causing him problems with his stocks due to the large buying and selling at certain points does that not offer some proof that enough people are following a particular system to cause more than a blip in a HUGE marketplace? When his book is the most single talked about investment book in print does that not hold some credence? When you join a web-site and via past posts show that you "appear" to be the least learned in a particular style that you keep finding fault with not register with you? Just what have you tested it against? If you have something so very much better why not getting to writing and finding you a publisher? If you can get it printed you might be amazed at how many people will buy anything. In fact, I might. I buy an investment book at least once a month. And yes I read it and test it. Have been doing that religiously since 1990. Why, if I have found something that works? I learn something everytime I read something, even if it is no more than "Phew! I am sure glad I am where I am!". I started in 1990 and kept the most meticulous records I think that have ever been kept by anybody, anyplace, anytime, anywhere. I tested everything. I wrote down every prediction by anybody about anything. I got every investment paper, magazine or book that was current. I wrote down everything. I periodically and regularly would check them out. I have volumes, and volumes and volumes of facts. About the only thing I found more consistent than WJO was an announcer on the "entertainment channel" that was suppossed to be really good, really hot, got the hot news now, better move quick and if you could go 180 degrees opposite from what he advised you got rich. I also found Lynch to be pretty good. "Pretty Good?" Peter Lynch? Have YOU done enough research yet to be able to make that statement? I do hope you understand that this is by no means a flame. This is simply asking you some questions that it appears obvious to the readers of your post that you have not yet accomplished. I recommend just sitting on the sideline, if you are not prepared to do the work on your own, and watch and listen. Go do YOUR homework. If you have read his book there is PLENTY of info in it about how to find the CANSLIM stocks both past and present. Get you a daily graph service. Enter 1000 stocks and start looking. Look past and present. Test, test, test. Go visit the Motley Fool sight. Read their book. Read "The Tao Jones Averages" by Bennett Goodspeed. Read ALL of Lynch's books. When you have done all of that come back. I think your posts will then read a little different. Without putting in the time there is NOTHING that anybody can do, say, show or tell you that will mean anything. People either believe what they see or else they will see what they "want to" believe. What's really there does not matter. Good luck to you and have a good day. Best wishes. James ---------- > From: Jeff Salisbury > To: canslim@xmission.com > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Hurrah - A "small" breather > Date: Tuesday, April 08, 1997 9:09 AM > > From: "Rick Miller" > To: > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Hurrah - A "small" breather > Date: Sat, 5 Apr 1997 09:41:43 -0600 > > Tom: I am not saying that canslim doesn't work or is not one of the best > methods for selecting stocks. I am only telling you that I have not been > that impressed with the testing that I have done with canslim. I continue > to search for methods, including canslim that will ultimately prove to be > superior to any other method. I think it is important in the search for > truth for objective and verifiable evidence. You say you have used it for > five years and found it to be the best "philosophy" as long as you followed > the rules. What have you compared it with to say it is the best? Are you > sure that not following the rules was the reason you did not perform well? > Are you sure that following the rules was the reason you did well? Or was > it maybe you just held on to the stock either too long or not long enough? > > I would be interested in seeing (from those who frequent this site) the > actual history of stock picks, both good ones and bad ones under the > canslim method and then analyzing the data to try and figure out what > worked and why or what failed and why. > I respect O'Neil and have read his book and think he knows what he is > talking about. But what I think may or may not have anything to do with > reality until it is tested. > Good Luck Tom, Rick Miller > ---------- > > From: Tom Worley > > To: canslim@mail.xmission.com > > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Hurrah - A "small" breather > > Date: Saturday, April 05, 1997 8:58 AM > > > > Rick, > > Not sure why you have found CANSLIM to be unreliable, but I have been > > using it for over five years, and found it to be far and away the best > > "philosophy" there is so long as I follow the rules. When I don't, I > > usually find I made a bad decision. If you don't like O'Neill's CANSLIM > > approach, keep in mind that this is a CANSLIM group, therefore the vast > > majority of stocks that will be suggested are likely to be CANSLIM > > based. > > good luck > > > > tom w > > ---------- > > > From: Rick Miller > > > To: canslim@mail.xmission.com > > > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Hurrah - A "small" breather > > > Date: Saturday, April 05, 1997 9:50 AM > > > > > > I don't know how you selected them, but let me suggest that you keep > > track > > > of them and give a performance report monthly over the next 12 months > > and > > > > > you find. I have tested the canslim method and have not found it to > > be > > > very reliable. I am constantly testing. Testing becomes easier when > > you > > ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Hemant Rotithor Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Hurrah - A "small" breather Date: 08 Apr 1997 11:19:31 -0400 Brenda wrote: > > To Whom It May Concern: > ONCE AGAIN, a message from somebody who is "not too impressed" with > CANSLIM. Are you begging for proof? Do you want us to do the proof for you? > If we did would you believe it then? When the weatherman says it is going > to rain today do you have to wait until you are soaking wet before putting > up the umbrella? When so many are following his system that L. Naveller is > crying because it is causing him problems with his stocks due to the large > buying and selling at certain points does that not offer some proof that > enough people are following a particular system to cause more than a blip > in a HUGE marketplace? When his book is the most single talked about > investment book in print does that not hold some credence? When you join a > web-site and via past posts show that you "appear" to be the least learned > in a particular style that you keep finding fault with not register with > you? Just what have you tested it against? If you have something so very > much better why not getting to writing and finding you a publisher? If you > can get it printed you might be amazed at how many people will buy > anything. In fact, I might. I buy an investment book at least once a month. > And yes I read it and test it. Have been doing that religiously since 1990. > Why, if I have found something that works? I learn something everytime I > read something, even if it is no more than "Phew! I am sure glad I am where > I am!". > I started in 1990 and kept the most meticulous records I think that > have ever been kept by anybody, anyplace, anytime, anywhere. I tested > everything. I wrote down every prediction by anybody about anything. I got > every investment paper, magazine or book that was current. I wrote down > everything. I periodically and regularly would check them out. I have > volumes, and volumes and volumes of facts. About the only thing I found > more consistent than WJO was an announcer on the "entertainment channel" > that was suppossed to be really good, really hot, got the hot news now, > better move quick and if you could go 180 degrees opposite from what he > advised you got rich. I also found Lynch to be pretty good. "Pretty Good?" > Peter Lynch? Have YOU done enough research yet to be able to make that > statement? > I do hope you understand that this is by no means a flame. This is > simply asking you some questions that it appears obvious to the readers of > your post that you have not yet accomplished. > I recommend just sitting on the sideline, if you are not prepared to > do the work on your own, and watch and listen. Go do YOUR homework. If you > have read his book there is PLENTY of info in it about how to find the > CANSLIM stocks both past and present. Get you a daily graph service. Enter > 1000 stocks and start looking. Look past and present. Test, test, test. Go > visit the Motley Fool sight. Read their book. Read "The Tao Jones Averages" > by Bennett Goodspeed. Read ALL of Lynch's books. When you have done all of > that come back. I think your posts will then read a little different. > Without putting in the time there is NOTHING that anybody can do, say, show > or tell you that will mean anything. > People either believe what they see or else they will see what they "want > to" believe. What's really there does not matter. Good luck to you and have > a good day. Best wishes. > James If you read Rick's questions carefully, he is trying to understand how well CANSLIM has performed in real life if it is followed meticulously by the book as Tom suggested to him. I see nothing wrong with trying to get a view from experienced persons. It should be abundantly clear that different people follow CANSLIM with different degrees of latitude, that is, in terms of following all the rules. For example the HGS people may be relaxing more rules, yet their system seems to be making money for those people. It appears to me that Rick is trying to find out how well would CANSLIM work in its different incarnations from people who have used it. Instead of providing him an answer, your post seems to be underestimating his abilities/background and exhibits anger that he has questions about the very method that you regard so highly, yet do not follow meticulously. Please, give Rick some credit and respect. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Johan Van Houtven Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Hurrah - A "small" breather Date: 08 Apr 1997 17:41:38 +0200 Rick Miller wrote: >Tom: I am not saying that canslim doesn't work or is not one of the best >methods for selecting stocks. I am only telling you that I have not been >that impressed with the testing that I have done with canslim. As I have said before: You can not test CANSLIM in itself. Take 5 CANSLIM experts and they will get different results. That is quite logical since CANSLIM is not (purely) an exact science. One can however test the performance of individual investors. One can for example compare their yearly performance. So if an individual does better with METHOD X than with CANSLIM that does NOT prove anything about CANSLIM. It might say that that particular person is more comfortable with using METHOD X than with CANSLIM. So it is up to each individual to look for the method that he/she feels most comfortable with. --- Johan Van Houtven ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Johan Van Houtven Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Fw: Market Comments, April 7, 1997 Date: 08 Apr 1997 16:47:18 +0200 Tom wrote: >> I am particularly concerned about the bond mkt not only not beginning >> to adjust to a May hike, but even giving up some of the March hike >> adjustment. What precisely is your concern Tom? Just want to make sure I understand you correctly. Can I savely compare the bond market with the stock market in that the stock market also shows short counter trend ralley's in this mid-term stock market down trend that we are in (IMHO)? >> EARNINGS CALENDAR (from First Call and Bear Stearns): >> WDC THU 1.50 I personally know someone who is betting all his investment money on this one. His is in at an average of approx 60. He is a 'buy the dips' of growing tech firms type of investor. A few months ago he was buying the (small) dip in INTC and MSFT, recently he bought WDC. The funny thing is that I've also bought WDC in the past, but at a new high (breakout). Shows me that there are indeed other ways to make money than pure CANSLIM. And yes I'm yealous... ;^) BTW, when I post to the list I always get my message back fromthe list in a few minutes. Maybe I'm just lucky. Might be an indicator that there could be a 'problem' between your system and xmission. Jeff what do you think? --- Johan Van Houtven ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Jay Cliburn" Subject: [CANSLIM] CPWR Date: 08 Apr 1997 09:49:43 -0600 Stumbled onto Compuware (NASDAQ: CPWR) today. I don't have DG, but the following numbers are from Monday's IBD. EPS: 94 RS: 98 A/D: B Float: 28M PE: 39.5 Looks to be making a move. Thoughts? -- Jay Cliburn | Space Dynamics Laboratory Computational Sciences Division | 1747 North Research Park Way Jay.Cliburn@sdl.usu.edu | Logan, Utah, USA 84341 (801) 755-4317 (voice) | (801) 755-4366 (fax) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Michael A Langston Subject: re: [CANSLIM] CPWR Date: 08 Apr 1997 12:00:53 -0400 > Looks to be making a move. > Thoughts? nothing shaking today jay, down 1/4 here -- i used to follow this one, good numbers -- it has been manipulated by pristine, cabot, and possibly others, so be careful mike ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Luke.Lang@sv.sc.philips.com Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Recent "picks" mentioned Date: 08 Apr 1997 10:39:37 PDT Tom, I appreciate your caution about insider transaction. However, I believe the odds are still better to go with insider buys. For example, several months ago when MLHR was around $40, I heard or read somewhere that insiders were buying heavily. At the time, I didn't think office furniture had much promise. How wrong could I have been?! Luke Lang > >From James (Brenda): Out of a sizable list, none really caught my > attention except still like Miller Herman (MLHR). Looks like it is > still within 5% of a small base and about 8% or so over the 50dma. > There is a larger, smoother base back at 65. RS 90, EPS 96, a/d A. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Brenda" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Recent "picks" mentioned Date: 08 Apr 1997 12:55:26 -0500 But then there is always the exception. Every so often they have on CNBC a man who tracks insider trading and he will mention usually up to three stocks. I watch those and it never fails that they surge. Most of the time most of them seem to fall back. The latest I remember following fairly closely and even bought myself was MSTR. The comment was that the insiders were buying at 18 and could not sell for six months. Add to thank Venek was buying it. Well, I did get out with a profit but now it is right back about where the insider buying was suppossed to be taking place. Where from here? Who knows! Just another story of many. James ---------- > From: Luke.Lang@sv.sc.philips.com > To: canslim@mail.xmission.com > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Recent "picks" mentioned > Date: Tuesday, April 08, 1997 12:39 PM > > Tom, > > I appreciate your caution about insider transaction. However, I believe > the odds are still better to go with insider buys. For example, several > months ago when MLHR was around $40, I heard or read somewhere that > insiders were buying heavily. At the time, I didn't think office furniture > had much promise. How wrong could I have been?! > > Luke Lang > > > >From James (Brenda): Out of a sizable list, none really caught my > > attention except still like Miller Herman (MLHR). Looks like it is > > still within 5% of a small base and about 8% or so over the 50dma. > > There is a larger, smoother base back at 65. RS 90, EPS 96, a/d A. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Brenda" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Hurrah - A "small" breather Date: 08 Apr 1997 12:57:25 -0500 Touche! If I read it wrong, I apologize. I just read it with the knowledge of all the previous. Sorry, if I took it wrong. ---------- > From: Hemant Rotithor > To: canslim@mail.xmission.com > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Hurrah - A "small" breather > Date: Tuesday, April 08, 1997 10:19 AM > > Brenda wrote: > > > > To Whom It May Concern: > > ONCE AGAIN, a message from somebody who is "not too impressed" with > > CANSLIM. Are you begging for proof? Do you want us to do the proof for you? > > If we did would you believe it then? When the weatherman says it is going > > to rain today do you have to wait until you are soaking wet before putting > > up the umbrella? When so many are following his system that L. Naveller is > > crying because it is causing him problems with his stocks due to the large > > buying and selling at certain points does that not offer some proof that > > enough people are following a particular system to cause more than a blip > > in a HUGE marketplace? When his book is the most single talked about > > investment book in print does that not hold some credence? When you join a > > web-site and via past posts show that you "appear" to be the least learned > > in a particular style that you keep finding fault with not register with > > you? Just what have you tested it against? If you have something so very > > much better why not getting to writing and finding you a publisher? If you > > can get it printed you might be amazed at how many people will buy > > anything. In fact, I might. I buy an investment book at least once a month. > > And yes I read it and test it. Have been doing that religiously since 1990. > > Why, if I have found something that works? I learn something everytime I > > read something, even if it is no more than "Phew! I am sure glad I am where > > I am!". > > I started in 1990 and kept the most meticulous records I think that > > have ever been kept by anybody, anyplace, anytime, anywhere. I tested > > everything. I wrote down every prediction by anybody about anything. I got > > every investment paper, magazine or book that was current. I wrote down > > everything. I periodically and regularly would check them out. I have > > volumes, and volumes and volumes of facts. About the only thing I found > > more consistent than WJO was an announcer on the "entertainment channel" > > that was suppossed to be really good, really hot, got the hot news now, > > better move quick and if you could go 180 degrees opposite from what he > > advised you got rich. I also found Lynch to be pretty good. "Pretty Good?" > > Peter Lynch? Have YOU done enough research yet to be able to make that > > statement? > > I do hope you understand that this is by no means a flame. This is > > simply asking you some questions that it appears obvious to the readers of > > your post that you have not yet accomplished. > > I recommend just sitting on the sideline, if you are not prepared to > > do the work on your own, and watch and listen. Go do YOUR homework. If you > > have read his book there is PLENTY of info in it about how to find the > > CANSLIM stocks both past and present. Get you a daily graph service. Enter > > 1000 stocks and start looking. Look past and present. Test, test, test. Go > > visit the Motley Fool sight. Read their book. Read "The Tao Jones Averages" > > by Bennett Goodspeed. Read ALL of Lynch's books. When you have done all of > > that come back. I think your posts will then read a little different. > > Without putting in the time there is NOTHING that anybody can do, say, show > > or tell you that will mean anything. > > People either believe what they see or else they will see what they "want > > to" believe. What's really there does not matter. Good luck to you and have > > a good day. Best wishes. > > James > > If you read Rick's questions carefully, he is trying to understand how > well CANSLIM has performed > in real life if it is followed meticulously by the book as Tom suggested > to him. > I see nothing wrong with trying to get a view from experienced persons. > It should be abundantly clear that different people follow CANSLIM with > different degrees of latitude, that is, in terms of following all the > rules. > For example the HGS people may be relaxing more rules, yet their system > seems to be making money for those people. > It appears to me that Rick is trying to find out how well would CANSLIM > work in its different incarnations from people who have used it. > Instead of providing him an answer, your post seems to be > underestimating his abilities/background and exhibits anger that he has > questions about the very method that you regard so highly, yet do not > follow meticulously. > Please, give Rick some credit and respect. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: PPNewell@aol.com Subject: [CANSLIM] Test 2:15pm EDT Date: 08 Apr 1997 14:18:00 -0400 (EDT) Just a test to see if my messages are going thru ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "David F. Cameron" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Hurrah - A "small" breather Date: 08 Apr 1997 13:11:47 CDT Rick, and everyone: CANSLIM seems in its ideal state to include both elements of what psychologists call left-brain actions and right-brain actions. The one side deals with logic and language. The other deals with creativity and intuition. IMHO, O'Neil couches his book with a base of logic - but then introduces elements of creativity/intuition. It is hard to be a successful investor without both. Others may disagree, but that's my call. Later, Dave Cameron ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Brian Nash Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] Recent "picks" mentioned Date: 08 Apr 1997 11:26:31 -0700 >>> Brian, have you found > others that tracked well with CANSLIM using this approach?<<< > > I'll have to look at my logbooks at home for specifics. I use a couple of canned queries on Zacks for the greatest 1 year and 2 year earnings percent change. I start from this list, exclude wretched penny stocks (SEEQ), negative-to-positive (KM), large negative-to-smaller negative earnings (AAPL), EPS < 90, then apply CANSLIM criteria. I had about 25 that I followed. I've already mentioned TAROF and MDCC, which are not CANSLIM candidates right now. As I've discussed, I bought JAMS at 9 1/2 last year. It was expected to earn .55 for 1996, 1.10 for 1997, and 1.20 for 1998. A stop sold it a couple of months ago at 12 3/4 (I rolled this money right over into MITY at 12 5/8). One I recall that I regret missing was SCTC at around $13 in October (now 22). It was expected to increase earnings 110% from 1996 - 97. I let it into the screen, even though it was an EPS 86 at the time. I also watched, and missed DWSN, good for about 50% from October - February, but down substantially now. Some of the misses would have been bad: MZON, now at 9, down from the mid-teens. It halted trading on a negative preannouncement, reopened down 40% and never recovered. The whole portfolio was up 13% from 07/96 until 12/96. Not too shabby for a portfolio of microcaps. I quit tracking at the end of December. I'll be starting a new list this weekend and keep you posted. > ---------- > From: Tom Worley[SMTP:stkguru@netside.net] > Sent: Tuesday, April 08, 1997 8:01 AM > To: CANSLIM > Subject: [CANSLIM] Recent "picks" mentioned > > Thought I could use the mental exercise, and maybe find some new ideas > I liked, so did a fast review of ones mentioned here past day or so. > Here is what I found: > > From Valere, one of our new members: Market Facts, a marketing > research > co - the large spread confuses the chart, does seem to have a cup and > handle, but would not consider it "perfect" as too shallow and right > side too high. Vol too thin for major institutional play, no funds, > banks 17%. Earnings look very strong, but day to day vol very erratic. > > From Brian Nash: he's right charts look bad, I found enough fault with > both TAROF and MDCC that I did not print the charts. Not sure what > this > tells us about trying to use trailing vs projected PE as another > selection input. Too small a sample, I guess. Brian, have you found > others that tracked well with CANSLIM using this approach? > > From James (Brenda): Out of a sizable list, none really caught my > attention except still like Miller Herman (MLHR). Looks like it is > still within 5% of a small base and about 8% or so over the 50dma. > There is a larger, smoother base back at 65. RS 90, EPS 96, a/d A. > Also > PSUN may be worth watching, moving up on light vol, RS 99, EPS 84, a/d > A. > > tom w > ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Brian Nash Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] Recent "picks" mentioned Date: 08 Apr 1997 11:36:06 -0700 Luke, if you want to follow these, a good place is: http://www.cda.com/investnet/daily/daily.html I've watched insider buying for a while, and even made a couple of dumb trades based on it. To me, it's like buying on rumor. And when do you sell? The insiders are long gone before the Edgar forms are public knowledge. Insiders tend to be value oriented and sometimes these turnaround situations take years to occur. Sometimes they are pure setups, like the Oakley chairman purchasing $10 million on the open market. Or like Chainsaw Al buying $3 million SOC after it has already doubled. But sometimes its scary: like all through last fall insiders were unloading USRX, ALTR, CSCO, COMS and CSCC like there was no tomorrow - a net $4 billion in redemptions. > ---------- > From: > Luke.Lang@sv.sc.philips.com[SMTP:Luke.Lang@sv.sc.philips.com] > Sent: Tuesday, April 08, 1997 1:39 PM > To: canslim@mail.xmission.com > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Recent "picks" mentioned > > Tom, > > I appreciate your caution about insider transaction. However, I > believe > the odds are still better to go with insider buys. For example, > several > months ago when MLHR was around $40, I heard or read somewhere that > insiders were buying heavily. At the time, I didn't think office > furniture > had much promise. How wrong could I have been?! > > Luke Lang > > > >From James (Brenda): Out of a sizable list, none really caught my > > attention except still like Miller Herman (MLHR). Looks like it is > > still within 5% of a small base and about 8% or so over the 50dma. > > There is a larger, smoother base back at 65. RS 90, EPS 96, a/d A. > ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Brenda" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Hurrah - A "small" breather Date: 08 Apr 1997 14:13:42 -0500 Dave have you read The Tao Jones Averages by Bennett W. Goodspeed? In talking about the left/right side brain - The book carries a sub title of A Guide To Whole Brained investing. James ---------- > From: David F. Cameron > To: canslim@mail.xmission.com > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Hurrah - A "small" breather > Date: Tuesday, April 08, 1997 1:11 PM > > > Rick, and everyone: > > CANSLIM seems in its ideal state to include both elements of > what psychologists call left-brain actions and right-brain > actions. The one side deals with logic and language. > The other deals with creativity and intuition. IMHO, O'Neil > couches his book with a base of logic - but then introduces > elements of creativity/intuition. It is hard to be a > successful investor without both. Others may disagree, > but that's my call. > > Later, > > Dave Cameron ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Mergers Date: 08 Apr 1997 20:01:14 -0400 Dave, you don't mention if it is an all cash merger, cash and stock, or all stock. You also don't mention if there is a possibility of another, competing, bid happening. If the acquired stock trades at or higher than the buyout value, then there is likely a competing bid out there, or at least rumors, and I might hold on for a few days in that case. If it is an all cash buy, and the acquiring co is credit worthy or already has the cash, the acquired co should trade very close (within a point, often less) of the buyout value. In that case I sell, I have seen too many deals fall apart and the almost acquired stock plummet. I don't wait for the deal to be completed to save a few pennies and a commission. If it is a stock or stock and cash buyout, Mike and James are right on target. First enjoy, then check the chart of the acquiring co. If you wouldn't buy it on the open mkt, why trade your stock for their shares, even in part? And note, we have had two recent examples of "worst case scenario" involving tech stocks being acquired for stock (USRX, CSCC) in which the price of the acquiring co fell sharply and the to be acquired stock fell in step, ultimately trading well below where it was BEFORE the acquisition caused it to spike. Granted, the mkt conditions helped those two to fall so far, but other factors can cause it to happen even in favorable mkt conditions. And remember, the stock of the acquiring co will typically be under selling pressure as its shareholders may not like the deal, investors anticipate large non-recurring writeoffs from the deal, and arbitragers short sell it to buy the stock of the acquired co and play the difference. tom w ---------- > From: David F. Cameron > To: canslim@xmission.com > Subject: [CANSLIM] Mergers > Date: Tuesday, April 08, 1997 8:42 AM > > I'm looking for info on what you do when you own a stock > that has just been announced as a takeover. With all ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Brenda" Subject: [CANSLIM] Gut Feelings Date: 08 Apr 1997 19:06:08 -0500 Tonight I have just completed going through my TC2000 graphs. I is getting where it takes less and less time. Tonight was fast! I saw a few stocks whose graphs were still intact. I saw some of the ole favorites acting like they were coming back to life. I saw ALTR break ever so slightly through some overhead resistance, closing at a new 52 week high. I saw both QNTM and TXN who are in different groups both break upward into new high ground and noticed their graphs look very, very similar. I noticed a stock that was being discussed HERE not very long along for the 3rd day surge upward after consolidating for a long time (BARR). I saw Campbells (CPB) act like it wants to rejoin the favored. I saw AMD hold it's price increase on high volume. I saw the Electronic Semiconductor Index (WG400 for those with TC2000) forming a "sorta cup" and looking like it could possibly break upward. H O W E V E R, the "gut feeling" - yes Rick - the "gut feeling" tells me something is fowl in Denmark. Maybe it is that daily low number staying below 30 that I can't get out of the back of my mind. Nothing wrong with that one. Maybe it's that the "Entertainment" network seems to be saying that the bad is pretty much over. Even Mary Farrell saying that the correction is all but done "should" make me feel better. She has been pretty good. Even Smith and Barney going to 50% cash should be a positive. When were they ever right. Sorry, about that Smith Barney. They might be surprised how many of their agents call me. About the only thing I can think of that might make me feel better is if Ms. G. advised her followers to get out because a crash was here NOW. That might cause me to mortgage the farm and jump in feet first. I am very curious to some of you "ole timers" responding to this one. How about some of you that were around in '87. How about some of you that understand that a gut feeling sometimes is better than all the facts you can round up backed with the proper experience. Anybody seen O'Neil REAL recently. Would love to know what his gut is telling him.ASTSF volume dried up some but closed at another 52 week high. Anybody following the IBC story. QNTM been strong for last six days in a row. Should ALTR post good numbers it should move too. TER on over 2 million new 52 week high. DELL even up 6% this week on 6 million shares. Once again, would love to hear from some of you ole timers. Some of you silent ones that basically watch and listen. Got any opinions? James ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Fw: Market Comments, April 7, 1997 Date: 08 Apr 1997 20:12:40 -0400 My concern is simple, while we just had a rate hike, and the concensus already is that we will have another in May, I see far too much of disregard for economic reports clearly showing me the economy is heating up, and inflation along with it, well ahead of my perception of the Fed's modeling. Sectors like the banks that should be struggling right after a rate hike and before another one, are doing quite well. The bond mkt even with the small drop today is still ahead of where it was a week ago, and I didn't consider it oversold then. Should this disregard continue thru the earnings cycle, we will be close to the May meeting before, all of a sudden, everyone will be suddenly worried about another rate hike. And I am seeing evidence that that hike could be 50 bp rather than the softer 25 that everyone else seems to expect. Another sudden change in sentiment could put us back into the 100 and 150 pt swings in the mkt, which do little good except for the day traders. I would rather see a logical adjustment spread out over a month or so than one achieved in a matter of days. And I can already read the headlines, " Fed ups the rate by 50 bp, where's the inflation?" and everyone runs for the hills because they couldn't see evidence of inflation, but obviously the Feds must to do another rate hike. Yes, the bond mkt can be oversold, and show rally trends just like the stock mkt. However, I don't feel like it was ever oversold. In fact, much of the "rally" was short covering inspired, which is not reliable. tom w ---------- > From: Johan Van Houtven > To: canslim@mail.xmission.com > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Fw: Market Comments, April 7, 1997 > Date: Tuesday, April 08, 1997 10:47 AM > > Tom wrote: > > >> I am particularly concerned about the bond mkt not only not beginning > >> to adjust to a May hike, but even giving up some of the March hike > >> adjustment. > > What precisely is your concern Tom? Just want to make sure I understand you > correctly. > > Can I savely compare the bond market with the stock market in that the > stock market also shows short counter trend ralley's in this mid-term stock > market down trend that we are in (IMHO)? > > ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Hurrah - A "small" breather Date: 08 Apr 1997 20:40:43 -0400 Rick, it has often been suggested that a new "CANSLIMer" spend the first full year doing nothing but paper trades. The reason for this is two fold, first for the newbie to learn all he or she can about CANSLIM and applying it to stock selection and buy/sell decision making. Secondly, it is to ensure that CANSLIM is right for that investor. You have stated that based on your "testing" to date (still have no idea how experienced an investor you are or how familiar you actually are with what WON says since still no intro) you are not impressed. I have no problem with you asking for feedback from those who have used CANSLIM successfully but that is not what this group is for. We are not a "Beta test center", so please also ask those who respond to send email directly and privately to you with their data so the rest of us can get on with finding better ways to apply CANSLIM. Maybe you can start your own group of those who aren't sure about CANSLIM for them, that's fine. As to whether I have tested other "systems", of course. I have been in the market for nearly 40 years, and have spent thousands of dollars subscribing to so many "stock pickers" newsletters without making money on them. I agree with some of the comments about Peter Lynch, he was good while at Fidelity. But I noticed he changed his whole attitude shortly after leaving, so now not sure how much he believed in what he was doing vs what he may have been allowed to do. I too have done detailed record keeping, both on CANSLIM and on other systems picks. On balance, I found I invested more successfully using CANSLIM. Period. I am an analyst by nature, and CANSLIM gives me a good balance of technical analysis, along with rules on selling (which very few systems bother with) as well as tremendous assistance in timing my entry. In fact, WON has more rules on when to sell than he does on when to buy. Most importantly, the first few times I read HTMMIS, I nearly flattened my forehead with the number of times I slapped it saying, "damn, now why didn't I realize that" as WON pointed out mistakes I had made in the past and just didn't realize what I was doing wrong. No other investment "guide" has hit me that way. Bottom line, CANSLIM works for me and I am comfortable with it. If you are not comfortable with it, then it will probably not ever work well for you no matter how much testing you do. When I was an active broker, the trades that my clients tended to remember most were not the ones I almost forced them into that made them lots of money. Rather they remembered the ones I recommended that lost them money. Even the ones they picked on their own that lost them money didn't bother them. People tend to focus on what they are uncomfortable with, and remember the bad far more than the good. But please, let us get back to what we were trying to do before you came along. If you want to help, and learn in the process, great. But this is a tricky mkt right now and I for one would like to focus on it rather than a "doubting thomas" (I can say that since I am a thomas). If you need testing to check out CANSLIM, feel free but can you do it on your own time and not the group's? And frankly, after all your big talk about how you gut feeling and volume driven method will beat CANSLIM, I haven't seen you explain how it is any better or even toss out a few stocks so we can follow your success. tom w ---------- > From: Jeff Salisbury > To: canslim@xmission.com > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Hurrah - A "small" breather > Date: Tuesday, April 08, 1997 10:09 AM > > From: "Rick Miller" > To: > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Hurrah - A "small" breather > Date: Sat, 5 Apr 1997 09:41:43 -0600 > > Tom: I am not saying that canslim doesn't work or is not one of the best > methods for selecting stocks. I am only telling you that I have not been > that impressed with the testing that I have done with canslim. I continue ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Insider buys and sells Date: 08 Apr 1997 20:44:10 -0400 I have often found that insiders don't know how to trade the market. The one exception is when a stock is running, that is an appropriate time for insiders to exercise their options and sell. There is demand for the stock, often the market makers are even asking for the stock to cover their short positions from trading. Trouble is, when there selling is reported, as it must be, the "market" usually misinterprets it and treats it as a negative and tanks the stock when that actually is the right time for them to sell. tom w ---------- > From: Andrew Poon > To: canslim@mail.xmission.com > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Insider buys and sells > Date: Tuesday, April 08, 1997 9:50 AM > > At 07:48 AM 4/8/97 -0400, you wrote: > >If anyone wants an example of how misleading insider buys and sells can > >be, look at the chart on PAGE. There was one buy in Nov in the mid > >teens, then three more in Jan at same price. Stock now is 7.5 > > > >tom w > > > > Same happened with PHII. Insiders bought several millions dollars of shares > two months ago at 22 and then at 18. Now trading at 17.5 > > Andy ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Insider buys and sells Date: 08 Apr 1997 20:46:36 -0400 I don't even try and keep a straight face as I told one of my wealthier brokers to stop buying it in the low teens, and he wouldn't listen. Owns 10,000 shares now, and he's none too happy, esp knowing I "told him so", even brought him in a DG and showed him why, and he still wouldn't listen. Shows what happens when you "fall in love" with a stock, fortunately, he's intelligent and will learn, eventually. tom w ---------- > From: Michael A Langston > To: canslim@mail.xmission.com > Subject: re: [CANSLIM] Insider buys and sells > Date: Tuesday, April 08, 1997 9:50 AM > > > PAGE...one buy in Nov in the mid teens, then three more > > in Jan...Stock now is 7.5... > > hey, if you liked it at 15 you gotta love it at... > > nevermind, i can't say it with a straight face :) > > mike ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Market Facts Date: 08 Apr 1997 20:49:59 -0400 Interestingly, spread tightened up nicely today. At one point, and I think again on the close, it was down to a qtr pt, and it was a result of the bid moving up, not the offer going south. Looks like someone trying to accumulate without paying the whole spread. And vol today broke 200K (the limit minder I set on it). IMHO, worth watching, these thinly traded stocks can run when they get a mind (and vol doesn't hurt either). tom w ---------- > From: Johan Van Houtven > To: canslim@mail.xmission.com > Subject: [CANSLIM] Market Facts > Date: Tuesday, April 08, 1997 3:50 AM > > Valere wrote: > > >is near new highs. It has approx. 140,000,000 shares, volume=100,000 > > Are you talking about MFAC? If so, last time I looked at it, a few days > ago, it had an ugly spread bid: 19, ask: 21. I thought it had max 2 mio > shares, but I'll check again this afternone when I get on the Web. > > As to buying it: I wouldn't buy anything at the moment until the 'M' factir > of CANSLIM is looking good again. > > > > --- Johan Van Houtven > ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] O'Neil's free seminar Date: 08 Apr 1997 20:54:41 -0400 Ya gotta read IBD for this kinda stuff, it's the paper for investors. tom w ---------- > From: Robert Gammon > To: canslim@mail.xmission.com > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] O'Neil's free seminar > Date: Monday, April 07, 1997 10:58 PM > > On Mon, 07 Apr 1997 19:29:29 -0400, derek b wrote: > > >I would venture that the majority of members of this list have > >attended. Some keep returning at every possible opportunity. The talk > > Count me as one who has never attended the seminar. Never heard about > it other than in this mail list. Read the local paper (Houston > Chronicle) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Recent "picks" mentioned Date: 08 Apr 1997 21:03:44 -0400 I harken back to my days as a broker when I started getting innundated with calls from clients (locally here in S.Fla) who wanted to buy Centrust bank. I was suspicious and did a little checking and found out that all the branch mgrs were being threatened with their job if they didn't buy some, thereby creating all the rumors of insider buying. I refused the orders, even tho it po'd some of the clients. Some went elsewhere and bot even after I explained why it was a bad idea. Less than three months later, RTC had taken it over and the stock was worthless. Morale of this story: use insider patterns with great caution, investigate, study the chart, check earnings patterns and history. If you would buy it anyway, then insider buying can serve as an extra "insurance" justification. But don't buy just because the "insiders" who supposedly "know everything" are also buying. I have seen big corporations flat out and out lie to their employees, including mid-level and even higher management types. Call me cynical, but I've been there, done that, learned and won't be back. tom w ---------- > From: Luke.Lang@sv.sc.philips.com > To: canslim@mail.xmission.com > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Recent "picks" mentioned > Date: Tuesday, April 08, 1997 1:39 PM > > Tom, > > I appreciate your caution about insider transaction. However, I believe > the odds are still better to go with insider buys. For example, several > months ago when MLHR was around $40, I heard or read somewhere that > insiders were buying heavily. At the time, I didn't think office furniture > had much promise. How wrong could I have been?! ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Recent "picks" mentioned Date: 08 Apr 1997 21:11:05 -0400 Another point often overlooked with insider buy/sell actions is that often the selling is caused by exercise of "in the money" employee stock options that are about to expire. Obviously, if they are about to expire, they will be exercised and turned into extra compensation. But upon exercising, the capital gain tax is due, thus the owner has little choice but to sell at least some and pay the taxes. And, if he is wise, he doesn't want both his paycheck and his net worth dependent on the same company, so selling all he just acquired makes sense to him, yet the marketplace will see this as pure selling, and react as if the stock is about to crash. tom w ---------- > From: Brian Nash > To: 'canslim@mail.xmission.com' > Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] Recent "picks" mentioned > Date: Tuesday, April 08, 1997 2:36 PM > > Luke, if you want to follow these, a good place is: > > http://www.cda.com/investnet/daily/daily.html > > I've watched insider buying for a while, and even made a couple of dumb > trades based on it. To me, it's like buying on rumor. And when do you > sell? The insiders are long gone before the Edgar forms are public > knowledge. Insiders tend to be value oriented and sometimes these > turnaround situations take years to occur. Sometimes they are pure ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Mike Carlson Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] O'Neil's free seminar Date: 08 Apr 1997 21:30:22 -0700 David F. Cameron wrote: > > Robert Gammon writes: > > > EVERY day. Perhaps Mr O'Neil doesn't believe that there are enough > > potential customers for his products in the 4th largest city in the > > U.S. > > Nah... he just doesn't like Houston ;-> Orlando has Disney World, > Los Angeles is home, Vegas has gambling.... Houston has... um.... > > Seriously O'Neil seems to have a regular circuit of sorts. It seesm > that the cities he visits get revisited -- I live in Chicago, he has > been here several times - but I lived in Detroit for several years (the > 6th largest or 7th in the U.S.) and he's never been there. Maybe he > clumps Houston in with Detroit ;-> > > OK.... I couldn't resist... > > Dave Cameron > dcameron@harper.cc.il.us > > I know this is not the correct method, but please tell me how to unsubscribe. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Jimmy Sorrells Subject: [CANSLIM] Introduction Date: 08 Apr 1997 23:08:28 -0500 Greetings, I would like to take this opportunity to introduce myself to the group. My name is Jimmy Sorrells, I am in my mid-thirties, married with three children, left my full-time job in 1994 and started a software development company (still in business), been mesmerized by the stock market for years. For those interested, here is how I came to CANSLIM: I have been investing money in stocks since 1983. In the beginning I guess I was like a lot of new investors, I was looking for the big-time home run. I put money into penny stocks, concept stocks, fantastic new start-ups, just sure that I would find one that would make me a quick millionaire! Well after two or three years of that (and a long string of true losers), I decided maybe there was a better way. I had never bought any "name" companies, so I decided to buy stocks in companies that I knew something about, and that seemed to be trading for bargain prices; I invested in Ford because I thought they were making the best new American cars, I bought Liz Claiborne and the Limited because my wife said they were the best, I bought Lowes because they were local and I liked their stores. You get the picture. So for most of the late eighties and the early ninties I did OK. Knew absolutely nothing about the overall market, never watched the Dow, didn't really know what NASDAQ meant, thought bonds were some kind of Government thing that were bought and sold in Washington. Really very ignorant. But strangely, I made money most of the time. I had a couple of years of 20% return, a couple of 10%, and most were between 3-8%. But then 1994 and 1995 came along. In 1995 I was talking with someone about mutual funds and I was telling him that you really couldn't make much money investing in funds, that individual stocks were the way to go (of course I knew nothing about mutual funds, what the average return was, or anything else for that matter, but that did not stop me). So my friend politely told me that I did not know what I was talking about and suggested that I review the current performance of some of the Fidelity Select Funds. I replied that I already knew everything, but that I would humor him anyway. What a revelation! When I looked at the performance of several of the high-tech funds in 1995, I was floored. Many of them had an annual return of 75-90% for that year! You mean I could have put my money into a mutual fund and almost double it in one year!? What was going on? What did they know that I didn't? Well since I didn't know anything, they really had me at a disadvantage. So I decided to learn about the stock market. I started reading books on the subject; first Peter Lynch's short volumes (good discussion of buying quality growth companies and staying in the market all of the time); next The Warren Buffet Way (my first encounter with value investing, which I tried for several months); then I wanted to read stories about sucessful investors, how did they do it? So I read Schwagers' Market Wizards and New Market Wizards, Trains' Money Masters and New Money Masters, Reminiscences of a Stock Operator, and How I Made $2,000,000 by Darvas (a corny title but a very good book). I read Zweigs Winning on Wall Street, Trader Vic by Sperandeo, Common Stocks for Uncommon Profit by Fischer, Secrets for Profiting in Bull and Bear Markets by Weinstein, Random Walk Down Wall Street, and others that are not worth mentioning. All of this reading definitely opened my eyes to things that I had never even considered before (that groups of stocks actually moved in unison, that interest rates influenced the stock market, that the trend of the Dow, the S&P 500, and the NASDAQ were important, etc). In late 95 I subscribed to IBD. Along with the paper came a copy of How the Make Money in Stocks. I read it once, read it twice. It was the most complete methodolgy that I had found. It talked about 1) how to pick stocks 2) when to buy them 3) when to sell them 4) when to NOT buy 5) what influences the movement of the market and of individual stocks. So in 1996 I went about applying CANSLIM with my own money. My fist CANSLIM pick was CPRD, bought b/o at 16 1/2, went to 23 within 4 weeks (40% in 4 weeks), I was hooked. Another winner for me last year was INVX, bought at 31 (pre-split), sold at 45 within three weeks (it eventually hit 65). Those two I actually owned and made profit on, many others I watched but did not buy (ZOLT, TEAM, PMRY, etc). Overall it was a year of fundamentally changing my investment style. I never knew what a stop or limit order was or how to use them before last year, now I wouldn't think of trading without them. CANSLIMing has been tough this year. I have not found a single stock this quarter that met the criteria that I was using throughout last year. I look every day, but I see nothing attractive at the moment. Well, it was long winded - but never let it be said that I jumped in without letting everyone know where I was coming from. Happy to be here and will try to make meaningful contributions if I can. Thanks for having me. Jimmy jimmy.sorrells@axiomtech.com ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Michael A Langston Subject: [CANSLIM] ORBKF Date: 09 Apr 1997 01:44:54 -0400 ORBKF 98 95 95 B -- nice b/o today on 2 x normal this one sports some good numbers, including zero lt debt, funds 1%, u/d 2.2, good PEG (pe 12 vs 98 est of 22%), roe 26%, last 4 q's eps: 118%, -17%, 40%, 52% -- next eps report due in early may on the worrisome side, an intraday show a flurry of buy orders in the last 15 minutes of trading, and anyone familiar with rags like pristine-day-trader may smell a rat, these sort of b/o's may last only a day or two until players cut and run -- and the price, while at a new high, is already roughly 10% over the b/o point (depending on how you read it), so if you didn't have a buy stop in place or r-t quotes you were left out today -- and then there's that F in the symbol, so many of these are manipulated (IMHO) i'd not be surprised to see some more quick upside from here, this one appears to have legs -- after that, given that this market seems to be largely day-trader driven wrt HGS and rife w/ b/o failures, i dunno, hang onto your wallet :) -- in any case, one probably worth watching for a while....... mike ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Louis H. Gipson, RN" Subject: [CANSLIM] Beginner feedback Date: 08 Apr 1997 22:54:40 -0700 Hi Tom, I have two situations for your comments or from anyone else who cares to contribute. I currently hold UTEK(89-85-B-+102) . I bought at 100 shares at 15.75 in a private account, sold all at 25.75 to transfer to an IRA. Repurchase 40 shares UTEK in the IRA at 28.75 about a week later and now at 25 on today's close. With the balance of the private proceeds, I bought 40 shares ONTK @ 22.25 (now 27.50) and 180 shares XSYS @ 3.125 (now 4). Including commissions, I have a 63% gain since July '96. This is all pre-CANSLIM mind you. I also said I am presently a small investor. ONTK (80-98-B-+102)is being merged with Lam Research LRCX (48-79-B-+73) with a stock trade of .83 LRCX for each ONTK. My plan is to sell ONTK and UTEK and buy ASMLF (90-98-c-+129). I presently do not have the graphs to evaluate the present price status of ASMLF so I am not as informed as I would like to be. ONTK is shown in graph in IBD 4/8/97. Am I correct to judge it is a good point to sell ONTK due to the reduced volume? I'm trying to keep my shirt while learning a new system. Any comments will be welcome. Louis Gipson, RN ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Luke Lang Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Gut Feelings Date: 08 Apr 1997 22:54:19 -0500 James, ALTR, QNTM, and TXN are all due to report earning soon - ALTR tomorrow. I was disappointed with AMD's lack of response to great earning. If SEG doesn't close up strongly tomorrow, I would then sell these stocks before earning announcement. They could be bid up in anticipation of good earning only to be sold on the new. Luke Lang Brenda wrote: > > I saw ALTR break ever so slightly through > some overhead resistance, closing at a new 52 week high. I saw both QNTM > and TXN who are in different groups both break upward into new high ground > and noticed their graphs look very, very similar. > QNTM been strong for last six days in a row. Should ALTR post good > numbers it should move too. TER on over 2 million new 52 week high. DELL > even up 6% this week on 6 million shares. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Louis H. Gipson, RN" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Introduction Date: 08 Apr 1997 23:00:28 -0700 > Well, it was long winded - but never let it be said that I jumped in > without letting everyone know where I was coming from. Happy to be here > and will try to make meaningful contributions if I can. Thanks for > having me. > > Jimmy > > jimmy.sorrells@axiomtech.com Hi Jim, Welcome to the group. Nice to know I'm not the only new kid on the block. Also new to CANSLIM and learning fast. Good Luck on your learning. Louis Gipson< RN ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Luke Lang Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Recent "picks" mentioned Date: 08 Apr 1997 23:07:41 -0500 Tom, Thanks for the advice. I like the idea of "insurance." Luke Lang Tom Worley wrote: > > If you would buy it anyway, then insider buying can serve as an > extra "insurance" justification. But don't buy just because the > "insiders" who supposedly "know everything" are also buying. I have > seen big corporations flat out and out lie to their employees, > including mid-level and even higher management types. Call me > cynical, but I've been there, done that, learned and won't be back. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Luke Lang Subject: [CANSLIM] Market timing Date: 08 Apr 1997 23:16:42 -0500 I have always heard that missing the X best days over the last Y years will result in nearly no net gain in that period. However, I have never heard how well a person can do if he/she manages to miss the X worst days over the same period. From a very simple technical analysis point of view, I wonder how well a person can do by simply selling when say 50 dma crosses under 100 dma and buying when crossing over. Can anyone comment on this? (Feel free to change the moving average period.) Thanks. Luke Lang ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Brenda" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Beginner feedback Date: 09 Apr 1997 01:25:40 -0500 I mentioned ASMLF a couple of days ago. I "have" owned up but not now. Got stopped out. Three days ago up 8. Two days ago up five. One day ago down 3 or 4. Today up 4 and change. If you like roller coaster rides you should love this one! Good luck though. My stomach is just not strong enough to own it. I remember when I was grading it I liked ASTSF better but then there goes another on of those "F" stocks. A few here did not care much for ASTSF but I do currently own it. Have a good day but remember to be very, very careful in this market. ALL of my current postions have ACTUAL stop loss orders in place. 15% off of the purchase price or the highest the stock has ever been. Not exactly CANSLIM but IMHO in this market tighter stops force you out at exactly the bottom of many corrections. James ---------- > From: Louis H. Gipson, RN > To: canslim@xmission.com > Subject: [CANSLIM] Beginner feedback > Date: Wednesday, April 09, 1997 12:54 AM > > Hi Tom, > > I have two situations for your comments or from anyone else who cares to > contribute. > > I currently hold UTEK(89-85-B-+102) . I bought at 100 shares at 15.75 > in a private account, sold all at 25.75 to transfer to an IRA. > Repurchase 40 shares UTEK in the IRA at 28.75 about a week later and now > at 25 on today's close. With the balance of the private proceeds, I > bought 40 shares ONTK @ 22.25 (now 27.50) and 180 shares XSYS @ 3.125 > (now 4). Including commissions, I have a 63% gain since July '96. This > is all pre-CANSLIM mind you. I also said I am presently a small > investor. > > ONTK (80-98-B-+102)is being merged with Lam Research LRCX (48-79-B-+73) > with a stock trade of .83 LRCX for each ONTK. My plan is to sell ONTK > and UTEK and buy ASMLF (90-98-c-+129). I presently do not have the > graphs to evaluate the present price status of ASMLF so I am not as > informed as I would like to be. ONTK is shown in graph in IBD 4/8/97. > Am I correct to judge it is a good point to sell ONTK due to the reduced > volume? > > I'm trying to keep my shirt while learning a new system. Any comments > will be welcome. > > Louis Gipson, RN ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Louis H. Gipson, RN" Subject: [CANSLIM] RN view on ALF Date: 08 Apr 1997 23:25:43 -0700 Hi all, Just read the article on ALF in the IBD today. I am an RN and work exclusively in home care. The last three years has seen a tremendous increase in the number of board and care facilities, aka assisted living. Here in north central CA, new facilities are popping up monthly. Not just mom & pop outfits, 30-100 bed centers in a very upscale deco. The rates can be as low as $1325 for a tiny room, but quickly go up to $3000-$4000 per month for luxury two bedroom units with all the services. Please note, these units have 6-12 month waiting lists. As a nurse, I am confident to say that the market for home related health care services and products must increase simply because of the increase in the number of people over 65, not to mention over 85. Companies like ALF, if properly managed can only continue to grow. Another company I am familiar with is Chad Therapeutics CTU AMEX (96-13-D). My NAIC club bought this one based on future earnings growth at 19. Unfortunately, it is now 10.875. The latest earning were up 18% but the volume has dried up. Any CANSLIM feedback on CTU is appreciated. Louis Gipson,RN ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Brenda" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Market timing Date: 09 Apr 1997 01:29:53 -0500 In a LOT of articles that Peter Lynch writes he takes three different investment philosophies over the last 10 years. The lucky investor who buys at exactly the right time, the one who is the unluckies buying at the worst possible time, and then the investor who buys regularly on the 1st day of each year. Each is "in" the market for the entire period. The differences are almost negligible. I always find it amazing. His point is to "just be IN". Don't try to time. Even in hindsight when you do it EXACTLY right the extra return is less than 1%. He doesn't know anybody good enough to do it AHEAD of time. Hope that helps. James ---------- > From: Luke Lang > To: CANSLIM List > Subject: [CANSLIM] Market timing > Date: Tuesday, April 08, 1997 11:16 PM > > I have always heard that missing the X best days over the last Y years > will result in nearly no net gain in that period. However, I have > never heard how well a person can do if he/she manages to miss the > X worst days over the same period. From a very simple technical > analysis point of view, I wonder how well a person can do by simply > selling when say 50 dma crosses under 100 dma and buying when > crossing over. Can anyone comment on this? (Feel free to change > the moving average period.) Thanks. > > Luke Lang ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Introduction Date: 09 Apr 1997 07:30:36 -0400 You've come a long ways, Jimmy, and welcome to the group. You have learned a lot about CANSLIM to already recognize that 1997 is not 1996, and to use patience rather than trying to force a stock to meet your criteria (something I am guilty of at times). If you are not already familiar with O'Neill's Daily Graphs books, you may want to take out a trial subscription. For me, they are even more useful than IBD. tom w ---------- > From: Jimmy Sorrells > To: canslim@xmission.com > Subject: [CANSLIM] Introduction > Date: Wednesday, April 09, 1997 12:08 AM > > Greetings, > > I would like to take this opportunity to introduce myself to the group. > My name is Jimmy Sorrells, I am in my mid-thirties, married with three > children, left my full-time job in 1994 and started a software > development company (still in business), been mesmerized by the stock > market for years. > > CANSLIMing has been tough this year. I have not found a single stock > this quarter that met the criteria that I was using throughout last > year. I look every day, but I see nothing attractive at the moment. > ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Market timing Date: 09 Apr 1997 07:36:27 -0400 A lot of mutual funds use graphs showing what would be the return over time if you put all your money each year in on the worst day, then on the highest day. While the difference over 20 years is considerable, the avg annual return even for investing on the worst day each year is still far better than a bank acct. I have never tried to use the 100dma, but have occasionally bot a stock as the 50dma crossed up over the 200dma, and usually made money. Results were not so good selling when the 50 crossed down over the 200, usually because I had already stayed in the stock too long. In the latter case many times it ended up never quite crossing, instead doing a 200dma bounce and going back up, leaving me behind. The lesson for me was that had I sold when I should have, I could have bot back in for that bounce and ended up making money. tom w ---------- > From: Luke Lang > To: CANSLIM List > Subject: [CANSLIM] Market timing > Date: Wednesday, April 09, 1997 12:16 AM > > I have always heard that missing the X best days over the last Y years > will result in nearly no net gain in that period. However, I have > never heard how well a person can do if he/she manages to miss the > X worst days over the same period. From a very simple technical > analysis point of view, I wonder how well a person can do by simply > selling when say 50 dma crosses under 100 dma and buying when > crossing over. Can anyone comment on this? (Feel free to change > the moving average period.) Thanks. > > Luke Lang ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] RN view on ALF Date: 09 Apr 1997 07:44:32 -0400 Here's another of my biases, learned from experience. It is rare that I will even look at a chart of an AMEX listed stock. On the few occasions when I buy an AMEX stock, it is almost always due to a story/rumor, as I did recently on PanAm. I have not found CANSLIM to work well there since the vol is so low (about 12 mil shares/day for the ENTIRE exchange). It's time has passed, and should be rolled into NASDAQ (few cos remain there that qualify for NYSE). On the other hand, I have seen a nr of cos that move from AMEX to NYSE move up nicely in the weeks following. tom w ---------- > From: Louis H. Gipson, RN > To: canslim@xmission.com > Subject: [CANSLIM] RN view on ALF > Date: Wednesday, April 09, 1997 2:25 AM > > Hi all, > > Just read the article on ALF in the IBD today. I am an RN and work > exclusively in home care. The last three years has seen a tremendous > > Another company I am familiar with is Chad Therapeutics CTU AMEX > (96-13-D). My NAIC club bought this one based on future earnings growth > at 19. Unfortunately, it is now 10.875. The latest earning were up 18% > but the volume has dried up. Any CANSLIM feedback on CTU is > appreciated. > > Louis Gipson,RN ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "David F. Cameron" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Introduction Date: 09 Apr 1997 8:08:25 CDT J. Sorrells writes: > > losers), I decided maybe there was a better way. I had never bought any > "name" companies, so I decided to buy stocks in companies that I knew > something about, and that seemed to be trading for bargain prices; I > invested in Ford because I thought they were making the best new > American cars, I bought Liz Claiborne and the Limited because my wife > said they were the best, I bought Lowes because they were local and I > liked their stores. You get the picture. So for most of the late > eighties and the early ninties I did OK. Knew absolutely nothing about This still isn't a bad way to go - as long as you check out the financials (in most cases). > > What a revelation! When I looked at the performance of several of the > high-tech funds in 1995, I was floored. Many of them had an annual > return of 75-90% for that year! You mean I could have put my money into > a mutual fund and almost double it in one year!? What was going on? What Of course... now you know this is rare. > did they know that I didn't? Well since I didn't know anything, they > really had me at a disadvantage. So I decided to learn about the stock > market. I started reading books on the subject; first Peter Lynch's > short volumes (good discussion of buying quality growth companies and > staying in the market all of the time); next The Warren Buffet Way (my > first encounter with value investing, which I tried for several months); > then I wanted to read stories about sucessful investors, how did they do > it? So I read Schwagers' Market Wizards and New Market Wizards, Trains' > Money Masters and New Money Masters, Reminiscences of a Stock Operator, > and How I Made $2,000,000 by Darvas (a corny title but a very good > book). I read Zweigs Winning on Wall Street, Trader Vic by Sperandeo, > Common Stocks for Uncommon Profit by Fischer, Secrets for Profiting in > Bull and Bear Markets by Weinstein, Random Walk Down Wall Street, and > others that are not worth mentioning. All of this reading definitely > opened my eyes to things that I had never even considered before (that > groups of stocks actually moved in unison, that interest rates > influenced the stock market, that the trend of the Dow, the S&P 500, and > the NASDAQ were important, etc). > Wow.... you don't do things half-way, do you! I've read about 2/3 of these books - I think its a great idea to keep reading. > > CANSLIMing has been tough this year. I have not found a single stock > this quarter that met the criteria that I was using throughout last > year. I look every day, but I see nothing attractive at the moment. > And you even realize it - I'm impressed. I had to lose a chunk of my capital before I realized it. > Well, it was long winded - but never let it be said that I jumped in > without letting everyone know where I was coming from. Happy to be here > and will try to make meaningful contributions if I can. Thanks for > having me. I hope you'll be an asset to the group > > Jimmy > jimmy.sorrells@axiomtech.com > Dave Cameron dcameron@harper.cc.il.us ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "David F. Cameron" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Hurrah - A "small" breather Date: 09 Apr 1997 8:11:46 CDT James, Thanks for the source. I have not. I checked my library last night which has a pretty good selection - but no luck. I may look into buying it - it sounds promising! BTW, good calls on some of these stocks lately. I'm gunshy because I've been stopped out of my last 5 purchases only to see some of them bounce back. The 15% rule might not me a bad thing now - but I've lost enough with a 10% rule of late. So... even though I hate paper trading, I'm on the sidelines for now - holding a couple stocks that are more or less flat of late (except for STAR - which I'm "married" to...). Dave > > Dave have you read The Tao Jones Averages by Bennett W. Goodspeed? In > talking about the left/right side brain - The book carries a sub title of A > Guide To Whole Brained investing. > James > > ---------- > > From: David F. Cameron > > To: canslim@mail.xmission.com > > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Hurrah - A "small" breather > > Date: Tuesday, April 08, 1997 1:11 PM > > > > > > Rick, and everyone: > > > > CANSLIM seems in its ideal state to include both elements of > > what psychologists call left-brain actions and right-brain > > actions. The one side deals with logic and language. > > The other deals with creativity and intuition. IMHO, O'Neil > > couches his book with a base of logic - but then introduces > > elements of creativity/intuition. It is hard to be a > > successful investor without both. Others may disagree, > > but that's my call. > > > > Later, > > > > Dave Cameron > ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Jimmy Sorrells Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Beginner feedback Date: 09 Apr 1997 08:38:17 -0500 Louis H. Gipson, RN wrote: > I have two situations for your comments or from anyone else who cares to > contribute. . . > and UTEK and buy ASMLF (90-98-c-+129). I presently do not have the > graphs to evaluate the present price status of ASMLF so I am not as > informed as I would like to be. Louis, You can get free historical and intraday price and volume charts at http://www.lombard.com You have to register, but it is free, and they have data on any stock that I have ever been interested in. Good luck. Jimmy -- Jimmy Sorrells Axiom Technology Inc. (205) 722-0075 voice 115 Murry Drive (205) 721-0805 fax Madison, AL 35758 jimmy.sorrells@axiomtech.com ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Brian Nash Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] Introduction Date: 09 Apr 1997 06:57:41 -0700 Jimmy wrote: <>> I can see how Lowes would be compelling. I am forbidden to go there without adult supervision. I spend $100 even if I just go for light bulbs and duct tape. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Brian Nash Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] Introduction Date: 09 Apr 1997 06:57:41 -0700 Jimmy wrote: <>> I can see how Lowes would be compelling. I am forbidden to go there without adult supervision. I spend $100 even if I just go for light bulbs and duct tape. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Jay Cliburn" Subject: Long-term debt Was: Re: [CANSLIM] ORBKF Date: 09 Apr 1997 07:56:48 -0600 > ORBKF 98 95 95 B -- nice b/o today on 2 x normal > > this one sports some good numbers, including zero lt debt, I've noticed more than once in this group that zero debt is lauded as a sound management practice. (That's what I've inferred here, Mike. I may be wrong.) I'll perhaps be the lone voice crying in the wilderness here, but I'd like to take issue with that notion. Debt has a valuable place in a firm's capital structure. Of the three elements of capital structure (debt, preferred equity, and common equity), debt is usually the least expensive. (Remember that interest on debt is tax deductible.) Of course, care must be taken not burden the firm with excessive debt at high interest rates, but in general debt is a perfectly acceptable (and profitable) way to generate shareholder wealth, and companies make deliberate decisions regarding the appropriate amount of debt to be carried in their respective capital structures. In *my* mind, at first blush, zero long-term debt implies inefficient, or at least inSUfficient, employment of capital. Just my opinion. -- Jay Cliburn | Space Dynamics Laboratory Computational Sciences Division | 1747 North Research Park Way Jay.Cliburn@sdl.usu.edu | Logan, Utah, USA 84341 (801) 755-4317 (voice) | (801) 755-4366 (fax) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Peter P. Newell" Subject: [CANSLIM] AOL mail problems Date: 09 Apr 1997 10:04 -0400 (EDT) For the few AOL subscribers. AOL Tech support confirmed that it is still having some email difficulties. Peter Newell P.S. I hope you get this note, I'll check on my aol account. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Jonathan Polito - Lucent ASCC Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Gut Feelings Date: 09 Apr 1997 10:44:13 -0400 James, I think "gut feelings" can account for a lot. Generally, gut feelings are made up of too many variables to consciously enumerate and assess. You need to ride the market like a wave. An intesting book I've been reading is Vic Sperandeo "Trader Vic II - Principles of Professional Speculation." He worked with George Soros at one point and mentions that one of Soros' main principles to making money is by identifying false views and then trading with those false views and get out just before people start to realize they are false. What is interesting is that Sperandeo harks back to some of the things Tom talked about a while ago regarding the gov's fiscal and economic problems. When you look at our economy objectively it sure looks like a great big bubble. But as long as the bubble is expanding you might as well keep riding it...just watch out! - Jonathan. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Michael A Langston Subject: re: Long-term debt Was: Re: [CANSLIM] ORBKF Date: 09 Apr 1997 10:50:23 -0400 jay writes: > I've noticed more than once in this group that zero debt > is lauded as a sound management practice. (That's what > I've inferred here, Mike. I may be wrong.) ayep, it's just one little piece of the puzzle, but low debt is IMHO better'n high debt > I'll perhaps be the lone voice crying in the wilderness here, but > I'd like to take issue with that notion. Debt has a valuable place > in a firm's capital structure. Of the three elements of capital > structure (debt, preferred equity, and common equity), debt is > usually the least expensive. lots of angles to this, i'll just mention a couple -- not from the co's perspective, but from the shareholder's (1) reducing l-t debt is frequently used as excuse to issue more shares, and you know what a p.o. announcement does to stock price (2) multiples are often thought to be limited by excessive debt (3) as the fed raises s-t rates, more eyeballs look at l-t debt (4) $ not spent on debt could instead be used in a stock buyback program -- oops, i said just a couple! -- anyway, all other factors being = i'll pick a co with lower debt any day mike ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Michael A Langston Subject: re: [CANSLIM] RN view on ALF Date: 09 Apr 1997 11:05:49 -0400 > Here's another of my biases, learned from experience. It is rare > that I will even look at a chart of an AMEX listed stock. that might worth be work a rethink tom -- just a little anyway i've played some real winners over at the curb -- AK, CDT (before it became CDTX), PPD, TCA, TKN, etc it's been nearly a year, but when canslim is in vogue i think it works at the amex as well as anywhere strictly my 3 cents (had to add one, inflation you know) mike ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Jimmy Sorrells Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Introduction Date: 09 Apr 1997 10:14:51 -0500 David F. Cameron wrote: > > CANSLIMing has been tough this year. I have not found a single stock > > this quarter that met the criteria that I was using throughout last > > year. I look every day, but I see nothing attractive at the moment. > > > > And you even realize it - I'm impressed. I had to lose a chunk of > my capital before I realized it. Don't get me wrong. 1996 was not all that good for me, I wound up losing money overall. I am chalking it up to "tuition costs" involved in learning a new investment (trading) approach. My biggest mistakes were in not honoring my stop-loss orders. More than once I moved a stop-loss DOWN, just to give the stock "a little more room". I know, this is a Cardinal Sin, but I had to experience it before I really took it to heart. But owning and watching several stocks that recorded double digit (and sometimes triple digit) returns in a matter of weeks really convinced me that there is true merit to the CANSLIM approach. And it really fits my personality. I am not comfortable with "buy and hold" long term investment, and I do not have the patience or perserverence that it takes to be a value investor. There is nothing wrong with those methods, they just don't fit me as well. Here's hoping that I at least learned enough in 96 to make 97 profitable. Jimmy -- Jimmy Sorrells Axiom Technology Inc. (205) 722-0075 voice 115 Murry Drive (205) 721-0805 fax Madison, AL 35758 jimmy.sorrells@axiomtech.com ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Brenda" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Hurrah - A "small" breather Date: 09 Apr 1997 11:07:47 -0500 Dave, One thing about the book that I was not too fond about was a test they give you at the end. I took the test and then got the results. They gave the results of many known people and what their scores were and my scores identified almost EXACTLY to be Jimmy Rogers. Oh well, can't win them all. Guess he must be doing something right to be managing billions of dollars. And both of us are about equally fond of the gov't, the way they report, the way they vote, act, etc., etc. Have a good day. ---------- > From: David F. Cameron > To: canslim@mail.xmission.com > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Hurrah - A "small" breather > Date: Wednesday, April 09, 1997 8:11 AM > > Thanks for the source. I have not. I checked my library last night > which has a pretty good selection - but no luck. I may look into > buying it - it sounds promising! > >> > Dave have you read The Tao Jones Averages by Bennett W. Goodspeed? In > > talking about the left/right side brain - The book carries a sub title of A > > Guide To Whole Brained investing. > > James > > > > ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Fred J. Sabour" Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] ORBKF Date: 09 Apr 1997 09:16:03 -0700 Mike, It looks like a stock being RECOGNIZED and able to run. If 'M' stays favorable, I can see it run another 15-25%. One word of caution. It has crossed Bollinger's upper band and may have to pause or slow down a bit here. Fred P.S. I'm getting a short term (trading) buy signal on IBM !! Does anybody follow it here? -----Original Message----- Sent: Tuesday, April 08, 1997 10:45 PM ORBKF 98 95 95 B -- nice b/o today on 2 x normal this one sports some good numbers, including zero lt debt, funds 1%, u/d 2.2, good PEG (pe 12 vs 98 est of 22%), roe 26%, last 4 q's eps: 118%, -17%, 40%, 52% -- next eps report due in early may on the worrisome side, an intraday show a flurry of buy orders in the last 15 minutes of trading, and anyone familiar with rags like pristine-day-trader may smell a rat, these sort of b/o's may last only a day or two until players cut and run -- and the price, while at a new high, is already roughly 10% over the b/o point (depending on how you read it), so if you didn't have a buy stop in place or r-t quotes you were left out today -- and then there's that F in the symbol, so many of these are manipulated (IMHO) i'd not be surprised to see some more quick upside from here, this one appears to have legs -- after that, given that this market seems to be largely day-trader driven wrt HGS and rife w/ b/o failures, i dunno, hang onto your wallet :) -- in any case, one probably worth watching for a while....... mike begin 600 WINMAIL.DAT M>)\^(B@0`0:0" `$```````!``$``0>0!@`(````Y 0```````#H``$(@ <` M& ```$E032Y-:6-R;W-O9G0@36%I;"Y.;W1E`#$(`0V ! `"`````@`"``$$ MD 8`T $```$````0`````P``, (````+``\.``````(!_P\!````40`````` M``"!*Q^DOJ,0&9UN`-T!#U0"`````&-A;G-L:6U ;6%I;"YX;6ES&UI``$P`0```!P````G8V%N&UI`' ` M`0```!0```!213H@6T-!3E-,24U=($]20DM&``(!<0`!````%@````&\10%1 M7&/.HMBPM1'0N[)$15-4`````!X`'@P!````!0```%--5% `````'@`?# $` M```2````9FIS86)O=7) 8W=I82YC;VT````#``80C& )T ,`!Q#/! ``'@`( M$ $```!E````34E+12Q)5$Q/3TM33$E+14%35$]#2T)%24Y'4D5#3T=.25I% M1$%.1$%"3$543U)53DE&35-405E31D%63U)!0DQ%+$E#04Y3145)5%)53D%. M3U1(15(Q-2TR-25/3D573U)$3P`````"`0D0`0```/D%``#U!0``(0@``$Q: M1G7!](&5`P`*`')C<&`1E0 M';$>839E'P47I$8)<28:4"[B4QMB)VT@(B "0!F"/1CA: D1&O $D"A0*'35 M'*!D&8$I&5!U(Y `D!QG;@= '_ #H$E"3<@@(2$;<$1O!Y$`0 60=*$2!#$V("TODD\%$)9G"X JX4T'D'-A M(B _+Y,F%BZD+G$+$RZF:2WX,30T`4 8D#,S#- S,ZQB(";0`W Z#(-B%S+% M$/%E`R!!($P/$1D!@0.@6U--5% Z#P(A-C) 8W,N(%!K+OD)@'5=)A4T8 9@ M`C TQ[)4"E!S9!P@'/!!$L )`Q$P.!SP,3DY-P$>D# Z-#4@4$UY."=4;S3' M'3$DP =P0.,`P ,0+GAM! $@<@6@8FTX*'5B:B[1-,=;`$-!3E-,24U=P"!/ M4D)+1C$_,DO'"\4?)$"2(#DX0\ [0%5$`4(O@2 #`&,8P&*^+QL0&1 YP2L" M$O!X1*#_!; `P ,A)BD>4 0`*P$8P&QS< D1!"!S`W 8P&>S&$ :D&YU!M $ MD',<\,T+@&,*0"H"('H$D!L0IFP%0 $`8G0<\&8;0"9D!"$7LS$E'/!U+S$: MD#(N,ASP2)-01=Y'*; BH!Z0$O!V!"!#T8<'D 5 ( $R,B4I'/!S`V 8P#(V M2\$+8$WQ-(5&=7$B465PD.PQ.$O!,R W2\$S4$O!Y0Y )41S97@%0%!1 M&R!?4% I,C?P'9$#H&4*P&S_(Y C<28:*Q$>41^B!1!(0_\`D $`'/ #D0N M*=(C@2D1[P?@&. .\ APH"-@?PN (% ' MD2 !*=56,B,2>?]'DAQ@/: 8D K!`_ >4!L@_S"P&'47I#HA&0`+@##0.<'N M+2G2'G$C5B2_F,@4!IC'>)$@1IR51(Z(?M$T!SP=T=0&M$7 MI& `&-%G'X 'X$=09VA)42OQ;.\)<"GP(Y #8'5GP%/!#T#]4=!O(]!C,54A M10)'X%:!_RFP`0`BH!J &8)4AUDXG)>L"!Q=2ZQ!"!L(OYW)=$8( %Q M'_!D@45$93A_5/,)<")1'E!G$4.P6-MS_P;#;.,#@5?38$0*P!C `X%=!2!U M"V I 90"* 5?(<4 -A_R6S8")'852&&,$BD1$1&O+_([,:T%T193(!@&F38 (P M$-\CT%3R9Q%'0P# 1$+8'*W(B!3P5Z)9 40?\)W M*4&\2$<%\&2S!I ?D2]$\W\<8 ,0"' 'D!SP>#53$6[_'C <\!$`&9$"(1L0 M;"%<@?<'0!K0!4 Z*D!$@5-A=:+_'3 1,!SP1Y(ND2+@`F CD.\7I!^Q7,&' MP'00\!F"`A#W!< 8X&93+HPT)AH]H!=P%RV+%[,3@0"/``````,`$! ````` M`P`1$ `````#`( 0_____T `!S" 8HPN`$6\`4 `"#" 8HPN`$6\`0L``( ( M( 8``````, ```````!&``````.%`````````P`"@ @@!@``````P `````` M`$8`````$(4````````#``6 "" &``````# ````````1@````!2A0``' X` M`!X`)8 (( 8``````, ```````!&`````%2%```!````! ```#@N, `#`": M"" &``````# ````````1@`````!A0````````L`+X (( 8``````, ````` M``!&``````Z%`````````P`P@ @@!@``````P ```````$8`````$84````` M```#`#* "" &``````# ````````1@`````8A0```````!X`08 (( 8````` M`, ```````!&`````#:%```!`````0`````````>`$* "" &``````# ```` M````1@`````WA0```0````$`````````'@!#@ @@!@``````P ```````$8` M````.(4```$````!`````````!X`/0`!````!0```%)%.B ``````P`--/TW $``!08(4` ` end ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Brenda" Subject: [CANSLIM] Fw: ALERT (AMD) -- Closing Bell Date: 09 Apr 1997 11:29:43 -0500 Here is a service that you can subscribe to if you wish. It is free. You can put in a portfolio and at the end of the day they give you an update. More importantly they will e-mail you certain information that "could be" helpful. It doesn't have to mail me something but ONCE a month that I make money on for it to be worthy in my opinion. Check it out and if you find it advantageous to your investment style then enjoy. James ---------- > From: Mercury Mail > To: bks@lcc.net > Subject: ALERT (AMD) -- Closing Bell > Date: Wednesday, April 09, 1997 10:31 AM > > Closing Bell Alert for Wednesday, Apr 09, 1997 > > ******************************************************************* > 10 Yrs of Historical P/E, Rel P/E, Earnings Surprise, etc. > Weekly and Monthly Constant Time Horizon Historical Earnings > Estimates ONLY AT MARKETPLAYER. Five Week Access Free. > PLUS the NEW invest-o-rama! HedgeHog Competition STARTS FRIDAY! > http://www.marketplayer.com/sponsor/investorama > ******************************************************************* > > Robertson, Stephens said analyst Dan Niles upgraded ADVANCED MICRO > DEVICES INC. (down 1/8 to 43-1/4 at 10:21am EDT) to long-term > attractive from market performer. Said AMD's recently reported > revenue, operating margins and EPS "were higher than our > expectations." Raised EPS estimate for 1997 to $1.23 from $1.00 and > 1998 estimate to $3.75 from $2.60. Projects company's K6 > microprocessor shipments at 3.3 million units in fiscal 1997 and 14 > million in 1998. (Reuters 09:48 AM ET 04/09/97) > > ====================================================================== > Mercury Mail, Inc. is an independent company not affiliated or > associated with Mercury Center, the San Jose Mercury News, or > Knight-Ridder, Inc. > Closing Bell is a trademark of Mercury Mail, Inc. > (c) 1997 Mercury Mail, Inc. All rights reserved. > > * If you'd like to subscribe to other Closing Bell products or > change your basket of securities, simply update your Closing Bell > profile. Visit http://www.merc.com/cb/cgi/cb_merc.cgi?action=enter > * If you do not have web access, or if you have any problems or > suggestions, send e-mail to our help desk at feedback@merc.com > > ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Louis H. Gipson, RN" Subject: [CANSLIM] Yahoo charts Date: 09 Apr 1997 10:11:14 -0700 Can anyone tell me if the charts available from Yahoo Finance either in the three months or one year graphs are adequate for at least a beginning to evaluate the price and volume patterns of possible stocks to buy with CANSLIM. In using the graphs, is it preferable to use daily or weekly values and for how long. Louis Gipson, RN ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: owner-canslim@xmission.com Date: 09 Apr 1997 11:38:08 -0600 [129.123.180.19]) by mail.xmission.com (8.8.5/8.7.5) with SMTP id LAA12964 for ; Wed, 9 Apr 1997 11:30:21 -0600 (MDT) Received: by scrooge.idec.sdl.usu.edu (951211.SGI.8.6.12.PATCH1042/920502.SGI.AUTO) for canslim@xmission.com id LAA04991; Wed, 9 Apr 1997 11:30:16 -0600 Message-Id: <970409113016.ZM4989@scrooge.idec.sdl.usu.edu> X-Mailer: Z-Mail (4.0.1 13Jan97) MIME-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset=us-ascii Sender: owner-canslim@xmission.com Precedence: bulk Reply-To: canslim Canslimers, If you use the word "subscribe" in your postings, your message will be bounced to me the admin for approval. Its an annoying feature that I've tried to convince my ISP to turn off. Instead of using the word "subscribe", use "Subscribe". Otherwise, there will be a delay in your posting. Jeff ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Jonathan Polito - Lucent ASCC Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Yahoo charts Date: 09 Apr 1997 14:00:55 -0400 Check out http://www.dailystocks.com It will give lots of research links as well as various chart links. Some of the charts have elementary technical analysis indicators included. The yahoo charts are fine for a general look, but don't offer much detail. Jonathan. >>>>> "Louis" == Louis H Gipson, RN writes: Louis> Can anyone tell me if the charts available from Yahoo Finance Louis> either in the three months or one year graphs are adequate for Louis> at least a beginning to evaluate the price and volume patterns Louis> of possible stocks to buy with CANSLIM. In using the graphs, Louis> is it preferable to use daily or weekly values and for how Louis> long. Louis> Louis Gipson, RN ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Hicks, Mike J (PB-mjhicks)" Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] Fw: ALERT (AMD) -- Closing Bell Date: 09 Apr 1997 11:01:00 -0700 I use this service too. It is free and I highly recommend it. Give it a try. You can track a number of stocks and they provide midday update and morning call to summarize what the market is doing. Michael Hicks 510/823-2512 mjhicks@pacbell.com >Desktop and LAN Services Group - Technology Services Group >---------- >From: Brenda[SMTP:bks@lcc.net] >Sent: Wednesday, April 09, 1997 9:29 AM >To: canslim >Subject: [CANSLIM] Fw: ALERT (AMD) -- Closing Bell > >Here is a service that you can subscribe to if you wish. It is free. You >can put in a portfolio and at the end of the day they give you an update. >More importantly they will e-mail you certain information that "could be" >helpful. It doesn't have to mail me something but ONCE a month that I make >money on for it to be worthy in my opinion. Check it out and if you find it >advantageous to your investment style then enjoy. >James > >---------- >> From: Mercury Mail >> To: bks@lcc.net >> Subject: ALERT (AMD) -- Closing Bell >> Date: Wednesday, April 09, 1997 10:31 AM >> >> Closing Bell Alert for Wednesday, Apr 09, 1997 >> >> ******************************************************************* >> 10 Yrs of Historical P/E, Rel P/E, Earnings Surprise, etc. >> Weekly and Monthly Constant Time Horizon Historical Earnings >> Estimates ONLY AT MARKETPLAYER. Five Week Access Free. >> PLUS the NEW invest-o-rama! HedgeHog Competition STARTS FRIDAY! >> http://www.marketplayer.com/sponsor/investorama >> ******************************************************************* >> >> Robertson, Stephens said analyst Dan Niles upgraded ADVANCED MICRO >> DEVICES INC. (down 1/8 to 43-1/4 at 10:21am EDT) to long-term >> attractive from market performer. Said AMD's recently reported >> revenue, operating margins and EPS "were higher than our >> expectations." Raised EPS estimate for 1997 to $1.23 from $1.00 and >> 1998 estimate to $3.75 from $2.60. Projects company's K6 >> microprocessor shipments at 3.3 million units in fiscal 1997 and 14 >> million in 1998. (Reuters 09:48 AM ET 04/09/97) >> >> ====================================================================== >> Mercury Mail, Inc. is an independent company not affiliated or >> associated with Mercury Center, the San Jose Mercury News, or >> Knight-Ridder, Inc. >> Closing Bell is a trademark of Mercury Mail, Inc. >> (c) 1997 Mercury Mail, Inc. All rights reserved. >> >> * If you'd like to subscribe to other Closing Bell products or >> change your basket of securities, simply update your Closing Bell >> profile. Visit http://www.merc.com/cb/cgi/cb_merc.cgi?action=enter >> * If you do not have web access, or if you have any problems or >> suggestions, send e-mail to our help desk at feedback@merc.com >> >> > > ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Louis H. Gipson, RN" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Yahoo charts Date: 09 Apr 1997 11:35:37 -0700 Jonathan Polito - Lucent ASCC wrote: > > Check out > http://www.dailystocks.com > It will give lots of research links as well as various chart > links. Some of the charts have elementary technical analysis > indicators included. > > The yahoo charts are fine for a general look, but don't offer much > detail. > > Jonathan. > > >>>>> "Louis" == Louis H Gipson, RN writes: > > Louis> Can anyone tell me if the charts available from Yahoo Finance > Louis> either in the three months or one year graphs are adequate for > Louis> at least a beginning to evaluate the price and volume patterns > Louis> of possible stocks to buy with CANSLIM. In using the graphs, > Louis> is it preferable to use daily or weekly values and for how > Louis> long. > > Louis> Louis Gipson, RN Thanks Jonathan, I'll take a look and get back to you. Lou ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Jay Cliburn" Subject: [CANSLIM] Re: Long-term debt Date: 09 Apr 1997 14:51:42 -0600 > [...] low debt is IMHO better'n high debt Good points in your response, Mike. I appreciate it. I agree with the above statement -- low debt is better than high debt. But there's lots of room in determining what's low and what's high, IMO. One company's low may be another company's high. What I balk at is *ZERO* debt. -- Jay Cliburn | Space Dynamics Laboratory Computational Sciences Division | 1747 North Research Park Way Jay.Cliburn@sdl.usu.edu | Logan, Utah, USA 84341 (801) 755-4317 (voice) | (801) 755-4366 (fax) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: GoldFish Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Insider buys and sells Date: 08 Apr 1997 22:36:20 -0700 Those are great examples to counter the idea to follow the insider step. And yet, there are also good examples to strengthen the believe to follow the insider step. The key question is which side has a more statistic significance? IMHO, many of the questions in CANSLIM should also be answer in this fashion if CANSLIM can be viewed as a scientific pursue which I doubt it. According to some of the messages that I read on internet, many people tried CANSLIM and failed and yet some of the CANSLIM masters did make a fortune out of it. It probaly is an art rather than a science. And if it is an art than you can not prove nor test it. Many people got good training in the music school, but not everyone can be a Bethoveen, Mozart.... Sincerely, Haw-Jye Shyu ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: derek b Subject: [CANSLIM] new free fundamental data available online - Barron's Market Lab Date: 09 Apr 1997 19:00:17 -0400 One thing missing from the online Barron's site is the kind of Market Lab data that has been available only in the print edition. Change announced today. Interesting that Barron's is adding new, proprietary data to their online site at the same time that WON has been reducing online accessible data. For example, volume tables are no longer available at the IBD web site. Derek News clip: Barron's expands offerings. Barron's Online is adding new, proprietary financial data from their weekly Market Laboratory section, along with 20-minute-delayed stock quotes, and monthly columns by Terry Savage and John C. Dvorak as part of an upgrade to its Web site. Access is free after registration. Market Laboratory provides economic indicators, indexes, earnings and other unique data. New data will be added including material now found in the print edition of Barron's, as well as new data exclusive to Barron's Online. http://www.barrons.com ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Beginner feedback Date: 09 Apr 1997 21:46:46 -0400 Hi Louis, downloaded the DG charts this AM, but no time to respond. Sorry for the delayed comments, but here is what I found: Ultratech Stepper (UTEK) - RS 85, EPS 89, a/d A or B, Funds 17%, timeliness C, avg vol 467.9K, recently trading about half that and under 50dma. Looks like it did a bounce off the 200dma. Earnings est for this yr down 1% and for next year up 18%. Latest two qtrs up 31% and 5%, however sales nr poor (up 10% and down 8%). Not a good CANSLIM candidate. Group RS by the way is 98, so far from a group leader. Ontrak Systems (ONTK) - RS 98, EPS 80, group RS 98, a/c B, timeliness B, funds 5%, earnings for cur yr est down 41%, next yr up 114% (maybe a reason for the acquisition?). Past week vol has been running around the avg of 230K. Chart continues a strong uptrend for past 3 mos, with increased volatility in past month. Obviously the acquisition offer, barring another bid, has set a ceiling on the price. Lam Research (LRCX) - must look at this since this is what you will own if you don't sell ONTK - RS 81, EPS 48, a/d B, group RS 98, timeliness C, chart shows a downtrend past three mos. Funds own 29%. Earnings est for this yr down 84%, next year up 131%. Up/down vol ratio is essentially neutral at 0.9 (0.8 is truly neutral). I looked at the chart for ASMLF, and, as I recall, it looked decent but since I don't have it in front of me don't want to comment on it. Noting the nr of shares you are dealing with, be careful of moving into a higher priced stock that will further cut the nr of shares you hold. It's hard enough to overcome the cost of commissions, even at a discount house. On 100 shares, it's easy to need a pt or two just to break even. If you don't want to own Lam, and I would not, then a switch is in order. Can't advise whether your planned purchase is the right one, but getting out of ONTK and UTEK seems to make sense for a CANSLIMer. good luck tom w ---------- > From: Louis H. Gipson, RN > To: canslim@xmission.com > Subject: [CANSLIM] Beginner feedback > Date: Wednesday, April 09, 1997 1:54 AM > > Hi Tom, > > I have two situations for your comments or from anyone else who cares to > contribute. > > I currently hold UTEK(89-85-B-+102) . I bought at 100 shares at 15.75 > bought 40 shares ONTK @ 22.25 (now 27.50) and 180 shares XSYS @ 3.125 > ONTK (80-98-B-+102)is being merged with Lam Research LRCX (48-79-B-+73) I> with a stock trade of .83 LRCX for each ONTK. My plan is to sell ONTK > and UTEK and buy ASMLF (90-98-c-+129s of ASMLF so I am not as ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Brenda" Subject: [CANSLIM] Some "Possibles" Date: 09 Apr 1997 21:03:22 -0500 I've noticed a lot of newcomers. Welcome. In this market finding stocks whose graphs are intact, much less CANSLIM stocks, has and still is difficult. In either system I am usually able to find more stocks than I have funds. Too much more of these conditions and for the first time in my life I may have more funds than stocks I care about being invested in. In going through my TC2000 graphs tonight I found a few stocks you might want to look at. These were picked strictly from the graph shape (aka price pattern). Some will prove to have not too bad numbers and I'm sure some, numbers wise, will probably be horrible. Could be a good practice for some of you newcomers. Here goes: AMAT, BBRC (split 3/2 today), CPWR, EPG, FDO, INVX, IBC, MLHR, QNTM, RXR, SRR, TBR, TAM, TUES, WBPR, APM, ESS, RHBC, RSR, STM, TNCR &WLA. Robertson Stephens and anyalyst Dan Niles upgraded AMD to long term attractive from market performer rasing estimates. After the market close, ALTR, reported earnings. For full story see http://www.merc.com/stories/cgi/story.cgi?id=2346263-b2b Barnett Banks, which recently acquired OXFD, reported 1Q EPS of $.78 vs $.74 diluted in the prior year period. Story at http://www.merc.com/stories/cgi/story.cgi?id=2340347-e38 and GOODYs Family Clothing story (GDYS) said March same store sales were up 22.8% over prior year period. HRS up last 5 days in a row last 3 being new 52 week highs but recent run up STEEP for me. Be careful in this market. Looking fwd to reading Tom's comments tonight. James ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Insider buys and sells Date: 09 Apr 1997 21:58:56 -0400 No question I consider CANSLIM to fall far more into the "art" category than a "science" one, that is why I frequently refer to it as a "philosophy" or "discipline" and why I mention that it is not right for all investors. If it was a science, and worked that way, we could just program our computers and give the ole PC the checkbook, and forget about the mkt, right? The two acct execs I had with O'Neill some years ago used to spend their entire Sunday every weekend independently going over thousands of charts, then compare the results, then spend the rest of the day narrowing the list down to a more managable dozen or so ready for a Monday sharing of ideas and advising of clients. Of course, they also did this throughout the week, but the weekend was their biggest single effort. And I might add, this list they started with had already been computer screened for their selected parameters. As far as insider buys and sells go, my subjective experience is that yes, sometimes the buys are a good indicator as are the sells. Unfortunately, by the time they are reported to the SEC and you and I have access to the info, the chart can tell you far more. That's why I use them only as one addl input, without much weight. tom w ---------- > From: GoldFish > To: canslim@mail.xmission.com > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Insider buys and sells > Date: Wednesday, April 09, 1997 1:36 AM > > Those are great examples to counter the idea to follow the > insider step. And yet, there are also good examples to strengthen the > believe to follow the insider step. The key question is which side has > a more statistic significance? IMHO, many of the questions in CANSLIM > should also be answer in this fashion if CANSLIM can be viewed as a > scientific pursue which I doubt it. > > According to some of the messages that I read on internet, many people > tried CANSLIM and failed and yet some of the CANSLIM masters did make a > fortune out of it. It probaly is an art rather than a science. > > And if it is an art than you can not prove nor test it. Many people got ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] ORBKF Date: 09 Apr 1997 22:06:48 -0400 Curious why you see "M" as favorable, much less staying that way? Please elaborate. Biggest problem with IBM short term is rumors of earnings estimate cuts. Even if upcoming report beats expectations, those rumors will continue. And the analysts will be picking the 10Q apart to justify those rumors. I suspect some of the problem may have to do with unfavorable currency exchange rates as well as price competition against foreign currency priced products, an issue I have mentioned before in my mkt comments. I personally favor DELL and CPQ over IBM right now. tom w ---------- > From: Fred J. Sabour > To: 'canslim@mail.xmission.com' > Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] ORBKF > Date: Wednesday, April 09, 1997 12:16 PM > > Mike, > It looks like a stock being RECOGNIZED and able to run. If 'M' stays favorable, I > > P.S. I'm getting a short term (trading) buy signal on IBM !! Does anybody follow it here? > > -----Original Message----- > From: Michael A Langston [SMTP:langston@cs.utk.edu] > Sent: Tuesday, April 08, 1997 10:45 PM > To: canslim@mail.xmission.com > Subject: [CANSLIM] ORBKF > > ORBKF 98 95 95 B -- nice b/o today on 2 x normal > > on the worrisome side, an intraday show a flurry of buy orders in > the last 15 minutes of trading, and anyone familiar with rags like ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Some "Possibles" Date: 09 Apr 1997 22:17:17 -0400 have some mercy, didn't leave work till nearly 9PM, now after 10 and haven't eaten in 24 hours (I supposed to eat at least once a day, so I am told. Gotta do something about this obsession, get a life or something). Alright, did do a partial mkt review earlier, will try and complete before I crash and if I see something sig, will see if majordomo will let me post). Quick comment here, economic reports I saw today further reinforce my expectation of retail sales beating projections, as well as the PPI (at least on the core nrs, which is really all I pay attention to) further reinforcing my belief we will see 50 bp on May 20). My only other observation is that this mkt is treating earnings like it did 6 months or so ago, sell ahead of earnings, I am seeing far too many cos tank even when they beat expectations by a wide margin. They are falling far more than the ones that miss expectation, I suspect because they already have tanked. If you hold a stock with a nice profit that is running up sharply, or even nicely, prior to earnings, tighten your stop or get out of part or all of the position. Good earnings are not being rewarded. Don't know if it is worry over the next rate hike, altho few besides me and my several alternate personalities seem concerned. Bottom line, doesn't seem to matter what you report, few are flying after reporting, thus the risk/reward ratio of holding thru the report seems weighted way too much in favor of risk. just a snapshot, hope it's right, and helps. tom w ---------- > From: Brenda > To: canslim > Subject: [CANSLIM] Some "Possibles" > Date: Wednesday, April 09, 1997 10:03 PM > > I've noticed a lot of newcomers. Welcome. In this market finding stocks > whose graphs are intact, much less CANSLIM stocks, has and still is > difficult. In either system I am usually able to find more stocks than I > recent run up STEEP for me. Be careful in this market. Looking fwd to > reading Tom's comments tonight. > James ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: Long-term debt Was: Re: [CANSLIM] ORBKF Date: 09 Apr 1997 22:25:54 -0400 "Normal" debt levels also vary widely by industry group, and that must be considered. I don't have a guide, so can't help there, just usually look at two or three other cos in same group for examples. Debt can also appear high when co is in a rapid growth phase. Final comment, debt in form of conv securities much better than straight bond type debt or line of credit since, if stock performing, likely will be converted into stock and disappear from the debt line altho with dilution of shares increasing. tom w ---------- > From: Jay Cliburn > To: canslim@mail.xmission.com > Subject: Long-term debt Was: Re: [CANSLIM] ORBKF > Date: Wednesday, April 09, 1997 9:56 AM > > > ORBKF 98 95 95 B -- nice b/o today on 2 x normal > > > > this one sports some good numbers, including zero lt debt, > > I've noticed more than once in this group that zero debt > is lauded as a sound management practice. (That's what > > In *my* mind, at first blush, zero long-term debt implies > inefficient, or at least inSUfficient, employment of capital. > ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "David F. Cameron" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Some "Possibles" Date: 09 Apr 1997 21:40:52 CDT > > have some mercy, didn't leave work till nearly 9PM, now after 10 > and haven't eaten in 24 hours (I supposed to eat at least once a > day, so I am told. Gotta do something about this obsession, get a > life or something). Alright, did do a partial mkt review earlier, .... we should be glad that you don't have a life, Tom, or that we are part of your life. I have a 1-yr. old child and wife - and I couldn't spend as much time as you, James, and some others do - because the child is more important. so.... I appreciate you and others saving me time... > will see if majordomo will let me post). Quick comment here, > economic reports I saw today further reinforce my expectation of > retail sales beating projections, as well as the PPI (at least on > the core nrs, which is really all I pay attention to) further > reinforcing my belief we will see 50 bp on May 20). Is this on record? Tom says 50 BP as of 4/9? > My only other observation is that this mkt is treating earnings > like it did 6 months or so ago, sell ahead of earnings, I am seeing > far too many cos tank even when they beat expectations by a wide > margin. They are falling far more than the ones that miss > expectation, I suspect because they already have tanked. If you .... agreed.... I'm almost tempted to sell anything that is reporting earnings - although AMD is doing ok... Dave Cameron ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Some "Possibles" Date: 09 Apr 1997 23:26:26 -0400 I haven't quite escalated to the point of making a 50 bp a "probable" but certainly consider it a strong "possible" as I have for some time now. Time will tell. But I did post some "economic" forecasts as part of my last mkt comments, that gives you a guage on my "personal model". Next two days will see if I am on target, some comments today on Dow news svc suggest I am now even closer on the likely PPI nrs, and also possibly on the retail sales, than the consensus showed just 24 hrs ago. Hey, gotta earn my "stkguru" somehow, even if it is in economics. Maybe someone will give me an honorary "economics" degree someday, and I can call myself an economist? To be honest, a kind former client giving me this computer a few months after my wife died has turned out to be good therapy, probably why I am so obsessive about it and the net (and this group, BTW, won't share the address with even some of my better brokers at work, don't want them to know I am talking behind their backs!). Let them find it on their own, I say, not that hard! In any case, keep your debt low, rates going up soon. You heard it here first, and some time ago as well. AMD was bolstered by more than great earnings, several major wirehouses upgrading definitely didn't hurt it. tom w ---------- > From: David F. Cameron > To: canslim@mail.xmission.com > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Some "Possibles" > Date: Wednesday, April 09, 1997 10:40 PM > > so.... I appreciate you and others saving me time... > > > reinforcing my belief we will see 50 bp on May 20). > > Is this on record? Tom says 50 BP as of 4/9? > > > My only other observation is that this mkt is treating earnings > > like it did 6 months or so ago, sell ahead of earnings, I am seeing > > .... agreed.... I'm almost tempted to sell anything that is reporting > earnings - although AMD is doing ok... > > Dave Cameron ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Craig Griffin Subject: [CANSLIM] CTU (Chad Therapeutics) Date: 10 Apr 1997 00:32:26 -0400 (EDT) Louis, At 11:25 PM 4/8/97 -0700, you wrote: >Another company I am familiar with is Chad Therapeutics CTU AMEX >(96-13-D). My NAIC club bought this one based on future earnings growth >at 19. Unfortunately, it is now 10.875. The latest earning were up 18% >but the volume has dried up. Any CANSLIM feedback on CTU is >appreciated. The numbers for future earnings estimates, recent earnings, 5 yr growth rate, and EPS rank (96) look great on CTU. Just the kind of thing to make your NAIC club want to buy it based on a model like "discount to future growth" or something. Those numbers are good for Canslim too. But there is a lot wrong with it too. The main problem is the chart. If you are looking at it as a new stock in Daily Graphs as a potential buy, the chart is sort of a rollover and die type of thing. This means you blink and go on to the next chart - don't even bother with the numbers - cause we are looking for something with a valid base pattern that might be about to breakout. The last time a Canslim'r would have been interested (IMHO) is back around mid Sept. 1996. It had just finished about a 15 week base between about $19 and $15. This would be about a 20+% basing range which is very nice. Then in September it tried to breakout past the $19 level on good volume. This is the date a Canslim'r would have bought and set his stop at about 8% per O'Neil. Others on this list would set a different stop perhaps, at the top of the base, for example, but that is another story. Where ever the stop was set after the purchase, the stock would have been sold when it collapsed back into its base in early October. End of story. Look for the next stock. So, why, one might ask is the stock down? The earnings look good (although they have been decelerating from qtr to qtr lately). The estimates for the next two years are greater than 35% per year and the pe is only 20. The latest news in DG is that the board has authorized repurchase of shares in February. Yet the RS (Relative Strength) is 13 and the line is falling. The price has fallen from 20 to almost 10 in about 1/2 year. U/D (up/down ratio) is 0.5. What gives? Canslim says "doesn't matter" We are looking to buy stocks that have numbers that are just as good fundamentally, but which also are at new highs (within 10% of a valid base) and in an uptrend. This means the rest of the market is voting with us and saying that they believe in this company too. There may be nothing fundamentally wrong with CTU. The market may not understand this company. It may be undiscovered, undervalued, etc, etc. But when will the market discover it? Next month? Next year? No telling, might be tomorrow. Another possibility is that there is something wrong with the company or the industry. That something may be known to the company management or maybe not. The management may be missing something that the investment community is seeing. The company may be low priced for a REASON. They usually (but not always) are. But finding that reason can be hard to do (sometimes the management is not even aware of it). So the safest course is to ignore it, wait for it to form a nice base, and buy it on the breakout (on the way up, not down). And in the meantime find stocks with similar or better fundamentals which are breaking out of valid bases on high volume and hitting new highs. O'Neil says the best merchandise always looks expensive. The merchandise that is at a discount is usually discounted for a reason. Canslim is looking for the best merchandise and willing to pay a bit more for it (as is the market) because it is likely to perform better. Long winded answer to a simple question. The short answer sounds a bit rude, but is not meant to be: you asked for CANSLIM feedback on CTU. The answer is that based on the chart pattern alone, one would not give it a second glance. Of course, my opinion only. Regards, Craig PS. On a purely technical basis, the way John Murphy looks at things on CNBC. I would say that it is testing long term support and that if it does not hold here, look out below. If it does hold here, then it could bounce quite nicely because it is very oversold. The earnings due on about 5/22 may tell the tale. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Michael A Langston Subject: re: [CANSLIM] CTU (Chad Therapeutics) Date: 10 Apr 1997 01:20:18 -0400 > Another possibility is that there is something wrong > with the company or the industry. uh, check out weekly group strength: 4/4 3/28 3/21 3/14 3/7 2/28 2/21 2/14 MEDICAL-PRODUCTS 37 39 40 69 73 82 85 89 mike ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Louis H. Gipson, RN" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Beginner feedback Date: 09 Apr 1997 23:20:08 -0700 Hi Tom, Thanks for your reply. First, a quick question. You said you "downloaded the DG charts this AM". When I called DG to inquire about their trial period, I asked about the on-line charts and the person didn't know what I was talking about. When you mention download, exactly what do you mean? You have confirmed my feelings with facts about selling ONTK and UTEK. I'm still working on an alternative choice to purchase. I use Pacific Brokerage Services for my trades and the cost is only $15.00 per trade. I recognize the need for the right and timely information, but right now the annual cost of the DG is a bit prohibitive with the funds I have available to invest. I will do the trial and my partner can do another trial immediately afterward so we can have ten weeks to work with. Also want to thanks Craig for his response. I agree the graph (Yahoo) does not look promising and I too would have passed it up without a second look if first viewing it now. Short term does not look that great but my NAIC club is focused first on education and then on long term growth of 15% per year. I certainly learned the value of a stop lost order/limit and didn't have to lose my shirt in the bargin. Keep in mind, the club is the first investing experience for most of the new members. I only bought my first stock in July '96. Talk about a babe in the woods. :) The wolves look real hungry. (((BFGRIN))) One more thing, Craig, you can be as long winded as your little fingers can tolerate. It's how I and others like me learn the quickest. I greatly appreciate it. Thanks again to Tom and Craig Louis Gipson, RN Tom Worley wrote: > > Hi Louis, downloaded the DG charts this AM, but no time to respond. > Sorry for the delayed comments, but here is what I found: > Ultratech Stepper (UTEK) - RS 85, EPS 89, a/d A or B, Funds 17%, > timeliness C, avg vol 467.9K, recently trading about half that and > under 50dma. Looks like it did a bounce off the 200dma. Earnings > est for this yr down 1% and for next year up 18%. Latest two qtrs > up 31% and 5%, however sales nr poor (up 10% and down 8%). Not a > good CANSLIM candidate. Group RS by the way is 98, so far from a > group leader. > Ontrak Systems (ONTK) - RS 98, EPS 80, group RS 98, a/c B, > timeliness B, funds 5%, earnings for cur yr est down 41%, next yr > up 114% (maybe a reason for the acquisition?). Past week vol has > been running around the avg of 230K. Chart continues a strong > uptrend for past 3 mos, with increased volatility in past month. > Obviously the acquisition offer, barring another bid, has set a > ceiling on the price. > Lam Research (LRCX) - must look at this since this is what you > will own if you don't sell ONTK - RS 81, EPS 48, a/d B, group RS > 98, timeliness C, chart shows a downtrend past three mos. Funds own > 29%. Earnings est for this yr down 84%, next year up 131%. Up/down > vol ratio is essentially neutral at 0.9 (0.8 is truly neutral). > I looked at the chart for ASMLF, and, as I recall, it looked > decent but since I don't have it in front of me don't want to > comment on it. > Noting the nr of shares you are dealing with, be careful of moving > into a higher priced stock that will further cut the nr of shares > you hold. It's hard enough to overcome the cost of commissions, > even at a discount house. On 100 shares, it's easy to need a pt or > two just to break even. > If you don't want to own Lam, and I would not, then a switch is in > order. Can't advise whether your planned purchase is the right one, > but getting out of ONTK and UTEK seems to make sense for a > CANSLIMer. > good luck > > tom w > ---------- ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Beginner feedback Date: 10 Apr 1997 06:51:30 -0400 I have the "paper" version of the Daily Graphs (DG) available at work, but I was lucky enough to be allowed to Beta test the online version, so currently can also get DG charts online. The system, last I heard, was planned to become commercially available the middle of this month. It's great! But, since it's not yet available to the public, probably the sales force has not been told much about it. tom w ---------- > From: Louis H. Gipson, RN > To: canslim@mail.xmission.com > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Beginner feedback > Date: Thursday, April 10, 1997 2:20 AM > > Hi Tom, > > Thanks for your reply. First, a quick question. You said you > "downloaded the DG charts this AM". When I called DG to inquire about > their trial period, I asked about the on-line charts and the person > didn't know what I was talking about. When you mention download, > exactly what do you mean? > ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Eccless@aol.com Subject: Re: [CANSLIM]Returning to a discussion of CANSLIM Date: 10 Apr 1997 07:06:56 -0400 (EDT) Which is more important in selecting a CANSLIM stock? Relative strength or earnings per share rank? Is a five-year record of earnings increase more pertinent than the results for the most recent quarter? Or is an interesting chart more important? What turns you on? A cup and saucer pattern or a double bottom? Is a good chart more important than other factors? What do you look for first? Accumulation/distribution? What do you consider to be new? I like to look for something new such as new products or a new way of doing business or new markets rather than a new earnings report or another change in management. What do you look for? Remembering that leaders are sometimes distinguished by the arrows in their backs, what kind of industry leadership do you look for and how important is it in relation to other CANSLIM criteria? How much weight do you give to fund ownership? Does the general stock market override all selections? I've noticed in Daily Graphs (OTC) that there are some stocks that have held their own or actually risen even during the current correction (not many but there are some). How about it experienced CANSLIM folks. What do you think is most important and least important? When you read Investors' Business Daily what do you look for first? Douglas Herman ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: [CANSLIM] Thought for the day Date: 10 Apr 1997 08:11:41 -0400 Just learned from TV media that today is NATIONAL BUTTKICKING DAY, so let's go out there and kick some. Have a great day, group. Didn't learn anything knew last night in my review that changed what I already posted. Be careful, it's a treacherous market right now. BTW, the dollar exploded to new highs again yesterday, gold suffering partially as a result. Just reinforces what I have been saying, gold not the place to put your money even with evidence of inflation. tom w ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Zoran Mitrovski Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] CTU (Chad Therapeutics) Date: 10 Apr 1997 08:58:04 -0400 (EDT) mike wrote: > > Another possibility is that there is something wrong > > with the company or the industry. > > uh, check out weekly group strength: > 4/4 3/28 3/21 3/14 3/7 2/28 2/21 2/14 > MEDICAL-PRODUCTS 37 39 40 69 73 82 85 89 > > mike UH, or better yet, check the perfect downtrend both in price and in RS. (I'm watching my March 28 DG so ignore if it has been broken in the meantime). Only thing that would stop me shorting this one is the volume dry-up (not good for a trend) and Craig mentioning it has been testing a long-term support which I cannot see from the DG chart and I can't go to Netscape while using my remote login program for the modem to check a chart further back in time. Cheers, Zoran ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Michael A Langston Subject: re: [CANSLIM] CTU (Chad Therapeutics) Date: 10 Apr 1997 09:48:51 -0400 >>> Another possibility is that there is something wrong >>> with the company or the industry. >> >> uh, check out weekly group strength: >> 4/4 3/28 3/21 3/14 3/7 2/28 2/21 2/14 >> MEDICAL-PRODUCTS 37 39 40 69 73 82 85 89 > > UH, or better yet, check the perfect downtrend both in price > and in RS. no zoran, your idea is not better -- in fact it's not even relevant to this concept -- please re-read the passage above, where craig uses the word "industry" and i respond with data about CTU's "group" -- this is the G in ERG mike ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Fred J. Sabour" Subject: [CANSLIM] IBM and Market Date: 10 Apr 1997 07:46:09 -0700 Tom, Yesterday both IBM and GE looked quite oversold and ready to turn (at least short term). I consider these two along with MSFT good indicators of 'M' behavior. Later in the day, IBM continued it's down action but GE stayed relatively firm. I will be keeping an eye on these two stocks today for market direction. You are right about currency. Admin. has lost it's desire to keep $ weak, and it will have it's negative impact on software, hardware, and drug companies in the future. Fred -----Original Message----- Sent: Wednesday, April 09, 1997 7:07 PM Curious why you see "M" as favorable, much less staying that way? Please elaborate. ........ I suspect some of the problem may have to do with unfavorable currency exchange rates as well as price competition against foreign currency priced products, an issue I have mentioned before in my mkt comments. begin 600 WINMAIL.DAT M>)\^(BL.`0:0" `$```````!``$``0>0!@`(````Y 0```````#H``$(@ <` M& ```$E032Y-:6-R;W-O9G0@36%I;"Y.;W1E`#$(`0V ! `"`````@`"``$$ MD 8`T $```$````0`````P``, (````+``\.``````(!_P\!````40`````` M``"!*Q^DOJ,0&9UN`-T!#U0"`````&-A;G-L:6U ;6%I;"YX;6ES&UI``$P`0```!P````G8V%N&UIE?MO46\ M`1X`4 `!`````0`````````>`' ``0```!D```!;0T%.4TQ)35T@24)-(&%N M9"!-87)K970``````@%Q``$````6`````;Q%O>TU,6^DNK%S$="[LD1%4U0` M````'@`># $````%````4TU44 `````>`!\,`0```!(```!F:G-A8F]UX`P`'$ H#```>``@0`0```&4```!43TTL6453 M5$521$%90D]42$E"34%.1$=%3$]/2T5$455)5$5/5D524T],1$%.1%)%0419 M5$]455).*$%43$5!4U132$]25%1%4DTI24-/3E-)1$525$A%4T545T]!3$]. M1U=)``````(!"1 !````'@0``!H$``"+!0``3%I&=7:JL(@#``H`0 M="$$D&1A>2 &X'1H("!)0DT@`'!D($A'12 )`&]K"8 @B'%U:1@@(&]V!)"> M!P1E0@9QF@&4 + M@&0/#> <( 6P!"!O9B GE$TG&(!E$0!V:06P>BX7E$P<(!X1"X >,B#M&%$L M&-,=L70+@ I0(!'$="<$(&1O=P.@`-#W(] "(!B =05 &6$8$!A@7QG1"7 + M8"/0&G!L&'!F;FD=,!UC`_!L`R A4""Y&1UA0?QD;0N '6 1``0@"0`<@9\D1 >0*T$;@B?R M("0?,/T;0&LC0!DB&B G9"%Q&D"Q)$-N961(J5F)6 (<&4=(=5&"7$7E KT;&DS M_C8!0#=T%I X80-@&" D\*$2!#$V("TZ(D\LL0\+@ = != 'D'-A9V4_.B,W M9CDT.&,+,3DV:2T8,30T`4 X(#$X,&(N?4%Q73=E/O &8 (P/U=7:PF M,D!S(Q-!$L #$3 ".2- ,3DY-R WY#HP11!034(W%U _5V<@< " ."!M0 # M`Q N/G@N0 00*Y(U04(X=6)&:BMA/U=293I @$,`04Y33$E-72#@3U)"2T8[ MSSS:."0["[87HT,(<0A@!"!W:!T8<'DL01$P&D B32+[&1 $(&8A@ 6P`: < M4"- _FT6`!C '% $$27"*#(8L-,<(3.P>3\7E% <4AI ?R9!!N!0(!@@(=46 M@TNF(%XN5/4X?P5 '9!S3H!P_U9B&J '@"#2(M(Y(5!!0 !_`, 8<#&C&Y$D MD!\S%Y1U[FY/YRUG*)!X$/$/("R1?R)1!" NH3" )Y$NH4118_]:L351$4 : M("41%Y0[0 MQ^QR!*H%E+, #H%K770,90/TY(606`$&0,,(@( 00"E#_'8$Q MHP> (\$"(#=&(5!>\N4BDFT8<&UK+5$#<&(2+G-3IA>C$X$`9: ```,`$! ` M`````P`1$ $````#`( 0_____T `!S# .LWUNT6\`4 `"## .LWUNT6\`0L` M`( (( 8``````, ```````!&``````.%`````````P`"@ @@!@``````P `` M`````$8`````$(4````````#``6 "" &``````# ````````1@````!2A0`` M' X``!X`)8 (( 8``````, ```````!&`````%2%```!````! ```#@N, `# M`": "" &``````# ````````1@`````!A0````````L`+X (( 8``````, ` M``````!&``````Z%`````````P`P@ @@!@``````P ```````$8`````$84` M```````#`#* "" &``````# ````````1@`````8A0```````!X`08 (( 8` M`````, ```````!&`````#:%```!`````0`````````>`$* "" &``````# M````````1@`````WA0```0````$`````````'@!#@ @@!@``````P `````` M`$8`````.(4```$````!`````````!X`/0`!`````0`````````#``TT_3<` #`-VK ` end ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Craig Griffin Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Thought for the day Date: 10 Apr 1997 11:20:26 -0400 (EDT) Tom, At 08:11 AM 4/10/97 -0400, you wrote: >Just learned from TV media that today is NATIONAL BUTTKICKING DAY, >so let's go out there and kick some. No way you are going to get away without a quick response to this one. It made me chuckle. Also a nice reminder that the markets are a hardball kind of game. Nobody is more serious than when there is money involved. Nice to be able to laugh about it at the same time. >Have a great day, group. Thanks, Tom. You too. Gotta go dry my eyes now. Then off to kick some butt (humming) ... Craig ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Zoran Mitrovski Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] CTU (Chad Therapeutics) Date: 10 Apr 1997 11:22:26 -0400 (EDT) mike wrote: > >>> Another possibility is that there is something wrong > >>> with the company or the industry. > >> > >> uh, check out weekly group strength: > >> 4/4 3/28 3/21 3/14 3/7 2/28 2/21 2/14 > >> MEDICAL-PRODUCTS 37 39 40 69 73 82 85 89 > > > > UH, or better yet, check the perfect downtrend both in price > > and in RS. > > no zoran, your idea is not better -- in fact it's not even > relevant to this concept -- please re-read the passage above, > where craig uses the word "industry" and i respond with data > about CTU's "group" -- this is the G in ERG > > mike OK, mike, my "idea" is not better, and it is not relevant to "this concept". ;^) I was absolutely aware of what both you and Craig said, and by "better yet" I merely wanted to add more bears to the equation. By no means I wanted to claim that my bears are bigger or scarrier than yours or Craig's. Loosen up, will you? ;^) Cheers, Zoran ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Michael A Langston Subject: re: [CANSLIM] CTU (Chad Therapeutics) Date: 10 Apr 1997 11:35:35 -0400 > By no means I wanted to claim that my bears are bigger or > scarrier than yours or Craig's. FWIW i used to play CTU, have made a few bux on it, but we're going back a coupla-three years -- even then it had good numbers, but traders would move it all over the board -- just when it looked to be tightening up, woosh here it'd go again -- and it wasn't all that thin, just fickle -- some stox post great numbers but just don't act right -- this time it seems clear that the problem is G, and if med-products come back w/ good group "speed" this may again be one to watch -- just keep the tums at hand! > Loosen up, will you? ;^) yea, that's me all right, warm-and-fuzzy loosey-goosey -- just ask my phd students what an old soft shoulder i am, heh heh heh mike ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Brenda" Subject: [CANSLIM] Stock Lists Date: 09 Apr 1997 22:02:34 -0500 Tom Just because you see a symbol that doesn't mean that you have to go and research every single one you see. Now, Brenda hates it when I get a fax from one particular individual because they do just exactly that. The send me copies of every newsletter they subscribe to, they go to the library and copy the ones that are available, the write in the news off the hot lines they get AND then when I get it- What am I suppossed to do? Ignore it and miss a good hot one? Ignore it for now and get to it later and discover that if I had "just" looked at the list a little THAT one would have jumped out at me? Put it up cause I don't have time? So, I too understand that when a stock is mentioned that I do not have a pretty good handle on I seem compelled to have to, at least, go look at the stocks graph. Right now I have just rcvd 24 pages of fax from this individual. Tom, I will let you get to bed and "hold" the info for later. Serioiusly, I hope I speak for many when I say, I read your comments, appreciate your putting your neck on the proverbial chopping block regularly (maybe one day you will achieve Gazzareli fame and not have to do it anymore), and although I may not agree with ALL I do factor it in on decisions. Brenda thinks you are in Houston and I think S. Fla. Is either of us right? Go to bed and get some rest. Tomorrow - If I had to guess I think most will be surprised tomorrow at how much the market goes .............. James ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Brenda" Subject: [CANSLIM] "m" in CANSLIM Date: 10 Apr 1997 13:27:08 -0500 Just pulled up quotes in portfolios that are either mine or ones I manage. The stocks I own are not the typical type. They have not only been "holding up" in this market but actually have been gaining. THAT IS, up until right now. When I looked where they were I expected the DOW to be down 300 and the NASDAQ down a 100 or more. Actually the DOW is actually even "right this instant" and the NASDAQ down about 12. Guess the new low number each day really is important. Does anybody think this market could C R A S H like real, real soon? James ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "David F. Cameron" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] "m" in CANSLIM Date: 10 Apr 1997 13:35:16 CDT > > Just pulled up quotes in portfolios that are either mine or ones I manage. > The stocks I own are not the typical type. They have not only been "holding > up" in this market but actually have been gaining. THAT IS, up until right > now. When I looked where they were I expected the DOW to be down 300 and > the NASDAQ down a 100 or more. Actually the DOW is actually even "right > this instant" and the NASDAQ down about 12. Guess the new low number each > day really is important. Does anybody think this market could C R A S H > like real, real soon? > James > Care to give a couple examples? ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Craig Griffin Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] "m" in CANSLIM Date: 10 Apr 1997 14:50:32 -0400 (EDT) James, At 01:27 PM 4/10/97 -0500, you wrote: >this instant" and the NASDAQ down about 12. Guess the new low number each >day really is important. Does anybody think this market could C R A S H >like real, real soon? About the time you are convinced the crash is here is the time it is likely to bounce (in my experience). This is why Mr. O'Neil recommends cash in downtrending markets (it is real, real hard to make money on the long side). Actually, most of the things I have been checking are not doing so bad today, although most are down more than the 1% of the NASDAQ. Regards, Craig ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Zoran Mitrovski Subject: [CANSLIM] mike's PhD students? Date: 10 Apr 1997 15:09:33 -0400 (EDT) mike wrote: > yea, that's me all right, warm-and-fuzzy loosey-goosey -- just > ask my phd students what an old soft shoulder i am, heh heh heh > > mike mike, I didn't know you had PhD students. It reminded me...While we ask the new guys to introduce themself to the group, there is no chance for them to learn about us who got in here before them. For instance I never saw mike's introduction, hence I didn't know about his phd students. One could always dig through the archives I guess. Cheers, Zoran ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Hemant Rotithor Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] mike's PhD students? Date: 10 Apr 1997 15:28:06 -0400 Zoran Mitrovski wrote: > > mike wrote: > > > yea, that's me all right, warm-and-fuzzy loosey-goosey -- just > > ask my phd students what an old soft shoulder i am, heh heh heh > > > > mike > > mike, I didn't know you had PhD students. > It reminded me...While we ask the new guys to introduce > themself to the group, there is no chance for them to > learn about us who got in here before them. For instance > I never saw mike's introduction, hence I didn't know > about his phd students. One could always dig through the > archives I guess. > > Cheers, > Zoran > I guess you are not involved much with parallel algorithms then. I remember Mike had introduced himself as a CS prof buried somewhere in one of his posts. For new guys, people could always put thier identification in a .signature file so that each post contains it, but that would appear immodest, wouldn't it? :-) -- Disclaimer: Opinions expressed in this document are those of the author. Digital Equipment Corp., 110 Spit Brook Rd, ZKO2-3/N30, Nashua, NH 03062 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Hemant Rotithor Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] mike's PhD students? Date: 10 Apr 1997 15:31:04 -0400 Zoran Mitrovski wrote: > One could always dig through the > archives I guess. > > Cheers, > Zoran > Or as an alternative use a search engine on the name if one is keen enough, but researching stocks seems like a good enough search exercise and a better utilization of time, maybe. -- Disclaimer: Opinions expressed in this document are those of the author. Digital Equipment Corp., 110 Spit Brook Rd, ZKO2-3/N30, Nashua, NH 03062 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Brenda" Subject: [CANSLIM] MFAC Date: 10 Apr 1997 16:24:04 -0500 Congratulations to whomever it was that was so high on MFAC a couple of days ago. Did you know something that wasn't showing? Also, I thought when buy outs were completed the stock usually stop its upward climb. Not so with SVM. Not too many stocks UP that I am watching. Must need some new ones. Any ideas? Got any more of those MFAC's. James ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Brenda" Subject: [CANSLIM] ASMLF Date: 10 Apr 1997 16:26:50 -0500 Who was that who liked this one? After today does that make it even "more" attractive. I seem to remember I said that if you liked roller coaster rides you would LOVE this one. Well now for the ride back up. TXN, DELL, TER, ALTR, MXIM, AMD, AMAT, QNTM, - the whole group. Anybody for a rebound in the group? James ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Michael A Langston Subject: re: [CANSLIM] MFAC Date: 10 Apr 1997 18:49:42 -0400 james-brenda writes: > Got any more of those MFAC's. i'm showing a spread of 22 by 24 3/4 -- ouch, the poor old MMs aren't taking any chances here -- you are welcome to all those you want, no thanky! > I thought when buy outs were completed the stock usually stop not necessarily -- haven't followed SVM, is it stock or cash? mike ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Brenda" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] MFAC Date: 10 Apr 1997 18:32:44 -0500 Touche! You are so right about the spread. Was just so surprised to see it hit the top of my list of stocks when I did it by change. Anything UP 3 in today's market got my attention. Of course, buying those stocks with those spreads will just eat you alive. I am in one now ADRX which has the same problem. When the stock is $24.50 you feel like you are losing soooooo much to sell it at $22. Of course this is not the case and you have to remember back when you bought it that you realized the spread and would be having to face this later at sell time. Currently, still have profit in it but when it is gone I hope to have LEARNED that I do not LIKE the anxiety associated with owning and then selling a stock like this. Why is it so hard to learn from your ACTUAL experiences? Seems like it should be easier than it is. James ---------- > From: Michael A Langston > To: canslim@mail.xmission.com > Subject: re: [CANSLIM] MFAC > Date: Thursday, April 10, 1997 5:49 PM > > james-brenda writes: > > > Got any more of those MFAC's. > > i'm showing a spread of 22 by 24 3/4 -- ouch, the poor old MMs > aren't taking any chances here -- you are welcome to all those > you want, no thanky! > > ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: tbanerje@siac.com Subject: [CANSLIM] CANSLIM Question Date: 10 Apr 1997 19:48:12 -0400 This is a multi-part message in MIME format. --------------1D6B182624B4 Content-Type: text/plain; charset=us-ascii Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit -- Tapas Banerjee email: tbanerje@siac.com --------------1D6B182624B4 Content-Type: text/plain; charset=us-ascii; name="can1.Q" Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit Content-Disposition: inline; filename="can1.Q" I am a new investor. I learned a lot from the different comments from the expert canslimmers. Still the following questions often comes to my mind, appreciate any answer from our canslim gurus. 1. What is the rationale behind choosing a canslim stock which has a chart pattern CUP and HANDLE? 2. Does any good mutual fund manager follow canslim method? I am interested to find out volume investing works for canslim. 3. We have various experienced investors, who have tried different investing methods. I understand that 'canslim' matches personal likings and personality. However I curious to know how do you compare your investment return(%), from other methodology vs. canslim. 4. How do you pick canslim stocks. Do you go through graphs of all stocks to find out good canslim candidate, or you set query criteria e.g P/E,RS,EPS Rank and the charting S/W(e.g DG) outputs the stock? Thanks, - Tapas --------------1D6B182624B4-- ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Brenda" Subject: [CANSLIM] Possible CANSLIM graph shapes Date: 10 Apr 1997 19:30:26 -0500 Try to get this to you early. While going thru my TC2000 graphs tonight I was not impressed by what I saw. What I did see was a LOT of $5 stocks getting action and play like they have not in years. I also saw a lot of the stocks I follow did decline but mostly on half of their normal volume. Not all, but most. Here are a couple of graphs that you might want to put on your watch list. Admit I have not done the homework on them. Only their graph shape for now. They are: PIR (one of Lynch's old favorites for years), and MAVK - too late?, and maybe SFDS. IMHO, the best guess of what the market "could do" comes from looking at indexes DJ-20, DJ-30, S&P 500, COMPQX and Mid-X. These seem to show that the market "could" recover, or bounce, some back to the overhead resistance level which in fact is not that far up. At that point I would not expect them to break through but "could" possibly consolidate here a little. I would then expect them to head back down. AND THIS IS MY BEST CASE SCENERIO. I sincerely hope that I am wrong. Per O'Neil if ALL of CANSLIM is an A+, 100%, best of the best, and the M part is down then 3 out of 4 of hyour stocks will slump with the market and you will lose money. Question for true, investing real dollar, CANSLIMrs - If you truly determine that you "think" the M part is definetely down, do you cash out of all of your position and sit and wait, do you put a stop loss at some point (and if so, tighter or loser than normal), and at what point do you consider getting back in. On a bounce? Or, does trend have to be more than that? Thanks for your time. James ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Hemant Rotithor Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Possible CANSLIM graph shapes Date: 10 Apr 1997 20:07:12 -0700 Brenda wrote: > > > Question for true, investing real dollar, CANSLIMrs - If you truly > determine that you "think" the M part is definetely down, do you cash out > of all of your position and sit and wait, do you put a stop loss at some > point (and if so, tighter or loser than normal), and at what point do you > consider getting back in. On a bounce? Or, does trend have to be more than > that? Thanks for your time. > James I think an answer to your question was provided by Craig Griffin about 2 weeks back. He indicated that there were 4 or 5 sell signals looking at NASDAQ chart just like those in july last year. He had also mentioned that William O'Neill had indicated that he got out of the market after receiving 4 sell signals in July and then got back in after a rally followed by a confirmation. Since our rally last time was not confirmed by a followthrough, I suppose we still are in a sell mode and since we have gone down from the last rally we need to start all over again. Is that right Craig? -- Disclaimer: Opinions expressed in this document are those of the author. Digital Equipment Corp., 110 Spit Brook Rd, ZKO2-3/N30, Nashua, NH 03062 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Luke.Lang@sv.sc.philips.com Subject: Re: [CANSLIM]Returning to a discussion of CANSLIM Date: 10 Apr 1997 18:13:53 PDT Douglas, > Which is more important in selecting a CANSLIM stock? Relative strength or > earnings per share rank? During early to mid '95 (the beginning of a big 2-year bull run), a friend and I started CANSLIMing. I was more conservative and went for the high EPS. My thoughts were that I am buying companies with good earning history that got beaten down for probably no good reason and are poised for a rebound that is going to make me a ton of money. My friend had more guts and went for high RS. He was looking to ride the momentum. Well, it was no contest; my friend won by a mile. After that experience, I place more emphasis on RS than EPS. I believe RS will almost always lead EPS. Look at the big semiconductor downturn in late '95. RS dropped like a rock before poor earnings were announced. Now, lots of them are near 52-week high, RS in the high 90's, but so so EPS. More importantly, the SOX index hasn't been hit much at all lately. The bottom line is go for both if you can. But make the tradeoff in favor of RS. It would be best if you are following the industry or company closely so that you know why RS is rising. For example, it may be in a turn-around situation. In that case, the EPS will by definition be low. This, however, brings about more risk. Look at CRUS as an example. It went up with the rest of the semi group in '96 but it didn't really turn-around. As a result, it is crashing back down. (BTW, when a stock goes down, especially on big volume, there is always a reason. I will never, never, never, ever, ever, ever do bargain hunting again. Whenever I did, I always found out the reason after I am down 25 - 50%.) > Is a five-year record of earnings increase more > pertinent than the results for the most recent quarter? I have to believe the morst recent quarters are far more important than 5-year record. In fact, I think the EPS rating is weighted in favor of more recent quarters. > Or is an interesting chart more important? What turns you on? A cup and > saucer pattern or a double bottom? Is a good chart more important than other > factors? I look at the chart to identify interesting stocks before looking up IBD numbers. I think the IBD numbers have a little more inertia/delay than I would like. I tend to be shorter-term trader and don't want to miss a big chunk of the move. In the chart, I look for large volume accompanied with either large price movement or break through of significant support/ resistance levels. > What do you look for first? Accumulation/distribution? This seems to have more inertia/delay than the numbers. > When you read Investors' Business Daily what do you look > for first? Definitely, the stocks with the greatest volume increase. Well, that's all that I can comment on. I look forward to comments from the rest of the group. Luke Lang ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] "m" in CANSLIM Date: 10 Apr 1997 21:44:42 -0400 I don't think, at the moment, that a "crash" is in order or likely, more likely is a "dink, pop, oops, drap, gurgle, baby bounce, shift in sentiment, slide, slide, slide". Don't worry, I just made all this up, the words don't mean a whole lot, my point is that if you step back and look at the overall trend lines measured by the week rather than by the day, you might still end up calling it a crash, just took longer to be revealed. Even on the solidly up days, the new hi/low nrs are lousy, partially because we have come off the highs so far, but also because it is so difficult for even stellar stocks to move up and stay there against a tide of profit taking (wish I had some to take, I would right now!). The one bright spot I see is the performance of the Russell 2000 (RUT). So far overall it appears to me to be doing better than both the dow 30 and NASDAQ. Granted, this is in part due to the heavy weighting of financials, and lighter weighing of techs, than NASDAQ. But still, I can hold on to my dreams, can't I? Probably key to my feelings on the mkt right now is how it is treating stocks that come in well above expectation. tom w ---------- > From: Brenda > To: canslim > Subject: [CANSLIM] "m" in CANSLIM > Date: Thursday, April 10, 1997 2:27 PM > > day really is important. Does anybody think this market could C R A S H > like real, real soon? > James ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] CANSLIM Question Date: 10 Apr 1997 21:55:10 -0400 I'll tackle questions 2 and 3 #2 - don't know what the current stats are, but several years ago when I had access to NSMI (WON's institutional service) I was told that something like 60% of the top mutual funds used his service. That doesn't mean that all followed CANSLIM rules, but they were still looking at his data and charts and considering his new "picks" which was all CANSLIM based. #3 - I haven't kept specific records, since I have a tendency to blend in several different sources and methods in my portfolio, but I do believe that those picked for CANSLIM reasons, even when I didn't totally adhere to all the rules, did the best for me. More importantly, I was far more comfortable with my picking and investing. During 1995, which was a good year for even the dart throwers, I mostly played options, and all were done on the basis of CANSLIM. I started the year with $6000, and by late July, even after taking out some money to pay bills, the acct was over $20K. I actually only played with about a third of the original portfolio, plus subsequent profits, so a good return overall. Unfortunately I was by then already liquidating pretty heavily to pay bills and offset the loss of my wife's income. But still, it was a good year and helped wipe out most of my tax loss carryforwards from other years and strategies. tom w ---------- > From: tbanerje@siac.com > To: canslim@xmission.com > Subject: [CANSLIM] CANSLIM Question > Date: Thursday, April 10, 1997 7:48 PM > > 2. Does any good mutual fund manager follow canslim method? > I am interested to find out volume investing works for canslim. > > 3. We have various experienced investors, who have tried > different investing methods. I understand that 'canslim' > matches personal likings and personality. However I curious > to know how do you compare your investment return(%), from other > methodology vs. canslim. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] IBM and Market Date: 10 Apr 1997 22:01:02 -0400 Just keep in mind that "Big Blue" is worried about earnings forecasts cuts, BD downgrades, institutional selling, and falling rates of growth of sales, to mention just a few. This means it is a news event related problem, as well as an industry problem, esp with earnings due in ten days or so, and will keep it trading in a more traditional pattern. Also I have seen several stories lately suggesting it is no longer considered the "bellweather" stock it once was, and many now adopting INTC as its replacement (foretelling a move to NYSE maybe?). tom w ---------- > From: Fred J. Sabour > To: 'canslim@mail.xmission.com' > Subject: [CANSLIM] IBM and Market > Date: Thursday, April 10, 1997 10:46 AM > > Tom, > Yesterday both IBM and GE looked quite oversold and ready to turn (at least > short term). I consider these two along with MSFT good indicators of 'M' > behavior. > Later in the day, IBM continued it's down action but GE stayed relatively > firm. I will be keeping an eye on these two stocks today for market > direction. > You are right about currency. Admin. has lost it's desire to keep $ weak, ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] mike's PhD students? Date: 10 Apr 1997 22:11:54 -0400 Maybe we need to do a quarterly or so round of intro's when the mkt/group is quiet otherwise. Or else another excuse for a FAQ? tom w ---------- > From: Zoran Mitrovski > To: canslim@mail.xmission.com > Cc: Zoran Mitrovski > Subject: [CANSLIM] mike's PhD students? > Date: Thursday, April 10, 1997 3:09 PM > > mike wrote: > > > yea, that's me all right, warm-and-fuzzy loosey-goosey -- just > > ask my phd students what an old soft shoulder i am, heh heh heh > > > > mike > > mike, I didn't know you had PhD students. > It reminded me...While we ask the new guys to introduce > themself to the group, there is no chance for them to > learn about us who got in here before them. For instance ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] MFAC Date: 10 Apr 1997 22:10:21 -0400 Credits are due to Valere (vrb4@chrysler.com) who posted it April 7. Even assuming you paid the offer and didn't try and go in between, you would still be making money, and that's assuming a sell on the bid, again without trying to go in between. I have been watching it since then, and when the vol picks up I have seen the spread tighten to as little as a qtr pt, so don't be fooled by the more typical spread of $2.00 (I think it closed today with a $2.50 spread). It is thinly traded, esp for such a high priced stock, but also has a small float so doesn't take that much vol to move it. I have been impressed at how well it has held up, primarily. CANSLIM nrs were and have remained good, the only criticism I had of it was that it is thinly traded. Offsetting this if I recall right is that there are no options or convertible debt, thus the arbitragers can't play with it. The large spread however does play havoc with "new highs" since it is not clearly indicative of whether the stock actually moved or just opened the spread back up. Regardless, for a new member to the group to have presented this one as his first public "pick" was both courageous and excellent, esp in this mkt. Kudos, Valere. tom w ---------- > From: Brenda > To: canslim > Subject: [CANSLIM] MFAC > Date: Thursday, April 10, 1997 5:24 PM > > Congratulations to whomever it was that was so high on MFAC a couple of > days ago. Did you know something that wasn't showing? Also, I thought when > ones. Any ideas? Got any more of those MFAC's. > James ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Stock Lists Date: 10 Apr 1997 22:24:40 -0400 I'm in Miami, FL, heart of the tropics and wild parrots chattering at me while I review my morning mail. And you're right, my hot button are stocks that I am not already familiar with, I'm always taking new ideas into the office as several brokers there are confirmed CANSLIMers, and appreciate me bringing them new ideas to look at. Don't try to tell them what to do, just show them the charts. You'll notice I will often do a fast TA, but not so often actually take a stand. This both because I have no opinion right away on what I would do if I had the cash to commit (I tend to prefer watching a stock trade for at least a few days after "discovering" it) but also I can only speak for myself, and am uncomfortable with the idea that anyone in the group might take my personal feelings and act on them thinking that I know any more than they what is best for them. It's a little different for me when I talk of the mkt in general, now THERE I will really get opinionated. Picture a chopping block, here's my neck on it, I expect Friday will be down better than 70 pts Dow30 and 1% NASDAQ due lack of major earnings reports, retail sales, and PPI nrs. Vol will be light. RUT will be down, but better than NASDAQ by enough to count. tom w ---------- > From: Brenda > To: > Subject: [CANSLIM] Stock Lists > Date: Wednesday, April 09, 1997 11:02 PM > > Tom > Just because you see a symbol that doesn't mean that you have to go > and research every single one you see. Now, Brenda hates it when I get a > fax from one particular individual because they do just exactly that. The > hope I speak for many when I say, I read your comments, appreciate your > putting your neck on the proverbial chopping block regularly (maybe one day > you will achieve Gazzareli fame and not have to do it anymore), and > although I may not agree with ALL I do factor it in on decisions. Brenda > thinks you are in Houston and I think S. Fla. Is either of us right? Go to ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Craig Griffin Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Possible CANSLIM graph shapes Date: 10 Apr 1997 22:44:08 -0400 (EDT) Hemant, At 08:07 PM 4/10/97 -0700, you wrote: >Since our rally last time was not confirmed by a followthrough, I >suppose we still are in a sell mode and since we have gone down from the >last rally we need to start all over again. Indeed! That is the way I read it too. The 3rd day was up 1%, but did not have higher volume than the day before, so the rally failed. With the next up day, we start the count all over again looking for a followthrough day. The CANSLIM List archives with the discussion of reading the market charts based on O'Neil's free seminar started on 02/08/97 (time does fly). The titles of the posts - there are 3 or 4 of them - are "O'Neil's Seminar (Mkt Analysis & DG's Online)" and "Reading a Mkt Downtrend (O'Neil's Chart)". There is also a JPEG file that we shared via Mike Artobello's website (ftp address is in one of the posts). If anyone actually goes back to read the archives, check to see if the JPEG is still available. If not let me know if you want it and I will send it to you via private email. Regards, Craig ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Zoran Mitrovski Subject: [CANSLIM] Intro ideas Date: 10 Apr 1997 22:54:30 -0400 (EDT) tom wrote: > Maybe we need to do a quarterly or so round of intro's when the > mkt/group is quiet otherwise. Or else another excuse for a FAQ? > > tom w I'd think introducing ourselves to each other quarterly would quickly become sorta bizzare. I just got something else in mind. We could each send a message with "Intro: FirstName LastName" in the Subject thus making it easier for future archive searchers to browse the archives. And Jeff could include that rule in the intro message he sends to each new member. A standardized Subject header would thus offer slightly better visibility with no additional organizational efforts. Also whoever has personal web pages of any kind could include them in their sigfiles. That's what I'll do now. There's a picture of me there too. Cheers, Zoran http://www.seas.rochester.edu:8080/ee/users/zmitrov/home.html ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM]Returning to a discussion of CANSLIM Date: 10 Apr 1997 22:55:07 -0400 I tend to look first at a chart, and check it for a decent base. If there is no base, or it is already extended, then I study the various CANSLIM nrs to see if it is something I at least want to put on my watch list (this is why I would like to see everybody post some CANSLIM nrs when they suggest a stock, at least then we can avoid checking out those that don't fit our basic criteria). Of all the CANSLIM nrs, I probably give the greatest consideration to the TREND in RS. This index, more than any other, shows the "popularity" of the the stock. After that, I look at the latest 4 qtrs of earnings and sales (and esp the latest two, and the overall trend of these nrs), then the five year history of earnings, to gauge why RS is so high. What is making it so popular? If I still like it after all that, then I examine accum/dist, timeliness, group action, leading five stocks in group, etc. Somewhere down the line, if I still like it and its group, I will definitely look at up/down vol ratio and fund ownership (I tend personally to prefer stocks mostly undiscovered by funds as of their last report, gives room for buy side demand pressure). I will usually look at debt, inventory turnover, and other economic stuff like that, but it usually will carry no weight in my decisions, it's just my analytical side trying to kick in. I will also look at where the 50dma and 200dma lines are and what they have been doing lately. The volume indicators are also important to me. When I first started doing CANSLIM, I tended to pick stocks breaking out of a RS in the high 70s into the low 80s on the concept they had reason to improve. Now I tend to ignore anything that is not in the mid 90s on both EPS and RS. Using CANSLIM in this current mkt is difficult and dangerous (sssshhhh, I have a point!). Cos that are coming in with earnings that are explosively ahead of the same qtr a year ago, as well as 10 or 20% ahead of current forecasts, should be gapping up. Instead they are selling off. This is psychological, not fundamental. The strategy I followed last time I saw this pattern was to wait a week to two weeks, let the stock settle down from all the volatility, then buy it more on fundamental reasons (based on continued earnings acceleration) than on CANSLIM. I also note a lot of BDs rushing in to upgrade those with great earnings, only to be hit with waves of profit taking. Give it a little time, still apply all the CANSLIM rules, but don't necessarily limit yourself to a stock at or breaking thru new highs. Watch for stocks with great earnings reports now behind them, with great forecasts still ahead, that base out at logical points. Good stocks are being oversold in this mkt, the trick is to pick out the ones that are truly oversold. Example: MOT had good earnings, and tanked. One reason, profit margins had declined. In addition, in some key product areas, sales had also declined. Going slow gives you time to review the details of an earnings report, even go into the SEC site and look at the report in its full form, then let the stock sell off on profit taking before acting wisely rather than impulsively. The hardest part of this is recognizing which stocks are behaving in a logical fashion, and which are not, since the mkt is definitely a NOT!. If a stock is not acting logically, then it is not predictable, thus your risk is increased to a point where I, at least, don't consider it worth the potential reward. See, there was a point buried in there somewheres. tom w ---------- > From: Eccless@aol.com > To: canslim@mail.xmission.com > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM]Returning to a discussion of CANSLIM > Date: Thursday, April 10, 1997 7:06 AM > > Which is more important in selecting a CANSLIM stock? Relative strength or > earnings per share rank? Is a five-year record of earnings increase more > pertinent than the results for the most recent quarter? > > Or is an interesting chart more important? What turns you on? A cup and > saucer pattern or a double bottom? Is a good chart more important than other > factors? > > What do you look for first? Accumulation/distribution? > > What do you consider to be new? > Remembering that leaders are sometimes distinguished by the arrows in their > backs, what kind of industry leadership do you look for and how important is > How much weight do you give to fund ownership? > Does the general stock market override all selections? I've noticed in Daily ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Intro ideas Date: 10 Apr 1997 22:59:24 -0400 I'm game, whatever works. I'm on record as prefering that all new members must intro themselves as well as read HTMMIS before becoming an active member. Would help them and us both. tom w ---------- > From: Zoran Mitrovski > To: canslim@mail.xmission.com > Cc: Zoran Mitrovski > Subject: [CANSLIM] Intro ideas > Date: Thursday, April 10, 1997 10:54 PM > > I'd think introducing ourselves to each other quarterly would > quickly become sorta bizzare. I just got something else in mind. > We could each send a message with "Intro: FirstName LastName" in > the Subject thus making it easier for future archive searchers to > browse the archives. And Jeff could include that rule in the intro ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: GoldFish Subject: [CANSLIM] What Works On Wall Street Date: 10 Apr 1997 23:43:38 -0700 Hi Folks: I just bought a book titled "What Works on Wall Street". For those who seek statistical information as which strategies can have a reproducible results, I think this book is worth reading. Although it is not CANSLIM, I believe it can fit the needs of many "scientific" minds. You probably will not be able to check it out from the public libary, the waiting list is long and almost every copy was out. I'll study more and back to my lurk mode. Sincerely, Haw-Jye Shyu ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: GoldFish Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] When To Sell - Per CANSLIM Date: 11 Apr 1997 00:18:03 -0700 Brenda wrote: > > Hello Group! > One of the hardest points I have understanding in HTMMIS is Mr. > O'Neil's exact selling point in certain circumstances. It "seems" to me > that he wants to sell some of a position when it is up 20%. I, > personally, deviate from his method if this is really true. >clip... Hi Brenda: Just curious, how many different CANSLIM rules that you break for your own investment style? Do you violate the rules of CANSLIM often? I was stop out once and hate it. Now I do not use stop at all. I sold all my position in PKX a couple days ago to make a 20% profit. The reason that I sold all the position is because I had only small position. If we violate a lot of CANSLIM rules, can we still call us CANSLIMers? Sincerely, Haw-Jye Shyu ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Michael A Langston Subject: re: [CANSLIM] Possible CANSLIM graph shapes Date: 11 Apr 1997 00:29:50 -0400 > If you truly determine that you "think" the M part is definetely > down, do you cash out of all of your position and sit and wait, > do you put a stop loss at some point (and if so, tighter or loser > than normal) experience tells me that i should just cash out james -- but the eternal optimist in me usually sticks with trailing stops -- the old "let your winners run" philosophy dies hard i guess, in part because if i'm wrong about M i'll be very glad i didn't sell, and if i'm right about M i'll be only a little bit sorry i sold late -- well, usually only a little bit sorry, let's not talk about gaps :( > and at what point do you consider getting back in. now there's the tough question! -- a lot of great stock pickers have erred there and simply been whipsawed to tears ever since last june -- heck, jim horan's still off fishing :) -- some we all know by reputation (e.g., david ryan, louis navellier) have even closed up shop! -- from what i've seen, it's really been reasonably safe only for day traders, nifty fifty players, big cap mutual funds and shorts but to try to answer your very timely question, i guess i'd say that in addition to the usual market factors (esp the new groom), i'd sure be tempted to get back in when (1) i see HGS resuming the tight staircase patterns so many have when canslim is in favor and when volatility is low and (2) b/o failures become the exception not the rule that's pretty unscientific i know, but kinda hard to quantize (or maybe i've just had too much single malt tonite ;) ) mike ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Michael A Langston Subject: re: [CANSLIM] Intro ideas Date: 11 Apr 1997 00:34:09 -0400 > http://www.seas.rochester.edu:8080/ee/users/zmitrov/home.html great beard zoran! -- but hey, don't macedonians eat anything besides chicken? :) mike ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: GoldFish Subject: Re: [CANSLIM]Returning to a discussion of CANSLIM Date: 11 Apr 1997 00:47:42 -0700 Eccless@aol.com wrote: > > Which is more important in selecting a CANSLIM stock? Relative strength or > earnings per share rank? Is a five-year record of earnings increase more > pertinent than the results for the most recent quarter? > I'll put in my $0.02 worth of comment here: To understand the company's background, I think it is necessary to have a five year record. It is not different from reading a price/volumn chart. It gives you an "average" feeling about the company's earning power. But, as Tom said, these are the history. They can not tell you the furture (except some matured companies). It is very dangerous to just look at those numbers along. Each industry has its own characters, some run with highly lervage (i.e. has a high debt ratio), some run with no earning (biotech for example), some always has a low price-to-sale ratio (grocery group for exmple), some always has low price-to-earning ratio (insurace group for example)...Some company even cook up (manipulate) the earning report. You really need to do a lot home work to really figure out the meaning of those numbers. Relative strength, is a momentum measurment. If you based on this number, you have to act decisively and quickly. If the momentum change, you want to get out quick. (For example, the computer network group). For slow action person like me (have two kids and a dog), do not have the luxrious to constantly monitoring the stock market. That's why I am a more value/fundamental oriented, because it allow a slower pace. After all, under normal condition, it takes time to build a business and it takes to destroy a business (Centannial Electronics is a counter example to this statement). Whatever method/parameter you used, you got to know the true meaning of it. Otherwise, you'll get cheated by your own number. I jsut learn this painful lesson and want to share it with you. HJS ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Michael A Langston Subject: re: [CANSLIM] Possible CANSLIM graph shapes Date: 11 Apr 1997 00:54:34 -0400 > If you truly determine that you "think" the M part is definetely > down, do you cash out of all of your position and sit and wait, > do you put a stop loss at some point (and if so, tighter or loser > than normal) experience tells me that i should just cash out james -- but the eternal optimist in me usually sticks with trailing stops -- the old "let your winners run" philosophy dies hard i guess, in part because if i'm wrong about M i'll be very glad i didn't sell, and if i'm right about M i'll be only a little bit sorry i sold late -- well, usually only a little bit sorry, let's not talk about gaps :( > and at what point do you consider getting back in. now there's the tough question! -- a lot of great stock pickers have erred there and simply been whipsawed to tears ever since last june -- heck, jim horan's still off fishing :) -- some we all know by reputation (e.g., david ryan, louis navellier) have even closed up shop! -- from what i've seen, it's really been reasonably safe only for day traders, nifty fifty players, big cap mutual funds and shorts but to try to answer your very timely question, i guess i'd say that in addition to the usual market factors (esp the new groom), i'd sure be tempted to get back in when (1) i see HGS resuming the tight staircase patterns so many have when canslim is in favor and when volatility is low and (2) b/o failures become the exception not the rule that's pretty unscientific i know, but kinda hard to quantize (or maybe i've just had too much single malt tonite ;) ) mike ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Zoran Mitrovski Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Intro ideas Date: 11 Apr 1997 00:59:45 -0400 (EDT) mike wrote: > > http://www.seas.rochester.edu:8080/ee/users/zmitrov/home.html > > great beard zoran! -- but hey, don't macedonians eat > anything besides chicken? :) > > mike Thanks, mike. I did a search on you and I found your page too. I liked the courdoroy (sp?) jacket a lot. Do you still wear it? ;^) On chicken...Ours are much more excercised than yours here. We still chase them around yards to make them fit while you stick'em in boxes and make infusion slobs out of them. The meat is really different. No kidding. And yes, we eat other stuff too. Should I infer you checked the recipes on Virtual Macedonia already? Seriously now. I didn't know you were a professor and in CS to boot. I visited your school (UTK) a couple of years ago when I drove down to see a cousin of mine sent by Fullbright there. Nice place. I was wondering whether you apply any of the science around you to add edge to your trading. A month ago I started dabbling with genetic algorithms and now I'm doing simulations to use them for deconvolution as a part of my dissertation. They are pretty promising for optimizing trading rules and parameters, and as a general multivariate function optimization tool. As such they are even being used to better train neural networks. For trading, too. OK, I got carried away here. Not really canslim subjects but could easily become that. Need a little push of imagination and... Cheers, Zoran http://www.seas.rochester.edu:8080/ee/users/zmitrov/home.html ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Louis H. Gipson, RN" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] ASMLF/COMS Date: 10 Apr 1997 22:04:11 -0700 Hi James, I'll own up to mentioning ASMLF. Stike it up to an enquiring mind. You are certainly right about a wild ride. I do want to ask about the graph of COMS. The price topped out at about 80 and then quickly dropped to the mid 30's since March 1, 1997. My question is about the very tight base this stock seems to be forming. I cannot relate it to other graphs in WON's book with the down slope to the base. Correct me if I am wrong. I am watching for a move in the price to above 40 with 20 million plus volume at which point it is a buy???? Help me Obiwan Kenobee!! Louis Gipson, RN James wrote: > > Who was that who liked this one? After today does that make it even "more" > attractive. I seem to remember I said that if you liked roller coaster > rides you would LOVE this one. Well now for the ride back up. TXN, DELL, > TER, ALTR, MXIM, AMD, AMAT, QNTM, - the whole group. Anybody for a rebound > in the group? > James ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Michael A Langston Subject: re: [CANSLIM] Intro ideas Date: 11 Apr 1997 01:13:47 -0400 > I liked the courdoroy (sp?) jacket a lot. Do you still wear it? ;^) that pic is nearly 20 years old zoran -- my sec'y tells me i need to update it, and i'll get around to that one day soon (let's just say she's not exactly holding her breath) > On chicken...The meat is really different. No kidding. now you sound like my students from india, same story there -- but where's the beef? :) > Should I infer you checked the recipes on Virtual Macedonia already? well of course -- culture economy and history are fine, but i have my priorities you know! > I visited your school dogwoods in bloom now, spring fever is rampant > I was wondering whether you apply any of the science around > you to add edge to your trading. naw, i'm able to flub up my trading w/o much science :) -- if i were to do that, however, i think differential equations and arbitrage are where (a lot of) the real money is > genetic algorithms...neural networks a coupla of the fido (uh, fidelity) funds use n-n, so far it's not been exactly a barn-burner > OK, I got carried away here. sure, happens a lot when canslim sux -- another group i'm in has been joking about joining heaven's gate and trying to recall old song lyrics.....it's different when HGS are hoppin mike ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Luke Lang Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Stock Lists Date: 10 Apr 1997 22:25:37 -0500 Tom Worley wrote: > > And you're right, my hot button are stocks that I am not already > familiar with, I'm always taking new ideas into the office as > several brokers there are confirmed CANSLIMers, and appreciate me > bringing them new ideas to look at. Don't try to tell them what to > do, just show them the charts. Tom, You and James can do this because you two are "professionals." I used to try to look at all the new symbols, especially in the greatest volume increase table of IBD. After a while, I find that I don't have the understanding in these companies/industries to pull the buy trigger. In the process, I saw a lot of "cup & handle" formations that went on to make big money - but not for me. I can still recall some - Blythe candle maker and Zions Bank. This little exercise has given me quite a bit of confidence in CANSLIM. It has also taught me to concentrate on the stocks that I know well so that I can better use my time. Nowadays, unless I have a lot of time on the weekend, I don't even look at the chart of any symbol that I don't recognize. A week or two ago, there was a discussion about using company name rather than symbol. It is my opinion that if you don't recognize the symbol, then you should not care about it. Well, this is not exactly true for the beginner. But for an experienced "amateur" like myself, one should only carry a limited vocabulary of symbols. I believe this is the idea that Peter Lynch and Warren Buffet preaches - only buy what you understand and know well. Luke Lang ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Stock Lists Date: 11 Apr 1997 06:53:58 -0400 The danger of only looking at stocks you already know is that you aren't looking at them "fresh". Additionally, you are not expanding your universe of knowledge. As a broker, one thing I appreciated about using O'Neill was that addition to my "professional" knowledge. I don't think you can have too much. And you don't really have to know the industry if you have DG available since you can judge the stock and group on technical grounds. The only hard part (aside from "M") is judging whether the specific stock has something "new". tom w ---------- > From: Luke Lang > To: canslim@mail.xmission.com > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Stock Lists > Date: Thursday, April 10, 1997 11:25 PM > > Tom Worley wrote: > > > > And you're right, my hot button are stocks that I am not already > > familiar with, I'm always taking new ideas into the office as > > You and James can do this because you two are "professionals." I used > to try to look at all the new symbols, especially in the greatest > volume increase table of IBD. After a while, I find that I don't have > the understanding in these companies/industries to pull the buy trigger. > bit of confidence in CANSLIM. It has also taught me to concentrate on > the stocks that I know well so that I can better use my time. > > Nowadays, unless I have a lot of time on the weekend, I don't even look > at the chart of any symbol that I don't recognize. A week or two ago, ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: [CANSLIM] The market and earnings Date: 11 Apr 1997 07:47:30 -0400 I am not posting as many "Market Comments" lately due lack of time and because I don't see a change in my opinion. Should I spot a new or different pattern, I will let all know. Great earnings reports are out there, trouble is how they are being treated. Here are a few from yesterday, starting with the ones released late in the day or after the mkt closed. WDC 1.76, (expected was 1.42 to 1.45) ASND .36 (.33) CUBE .41 (.39) DS .50 (.38) KEA .29 (.22) morning releases yesterday BRE (no, not that bre, this one's a REIT) .46 (.43) C 1.45 (1.44) SEEDB .91 (.77) GP .11 (.01) MTW .56 (.49) JPM 2.04 (1.92) PD 2.12 (1.90) PNFI .50 (.46) SSP .37 (.31) SLM 2.17 (1.85) WLL .24 (.21) For those interested, watch the first group in particular and see how many gap up at the open. I don't expect many, even if the PPI and retail nrs come in far below my expectations. I think I am actually seeing more stocks move up on neg earnings surprises than on positive (of course they probably already tanked, and now the bad news is behind them, and maybe wasn't quite as bad as some had feared, etc). WDC reported after the close, and I think so did DS, or at least real late in the day. Anybody heard anything on TLAB, thought it was to report Wed? tom w Any opinions are strictly my own and not that of my employer. My comments are based on a variety of sources and are intended strictly to assist and inform. In no way am I suggesting a buy, sell, or hold decision based on my comments or observations. I always urge an investor to do his or her own homework, and be sure the risk of the market can be tolerated and any losses accepted gracefully. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] ASMLF/COMS Date: 11 Apr 1997 08:07:43 -0400 A move over about 42 on volume, if sustained, could be encouraging. Right now RS is 9! Until fears of slowing growth in this industry are resolved, don't see much daylight except for the value players. After all, EPS is still 95 even with a/d at E. Funds reported with 28%, 1997 earnings est up 30% and 27% for '98. I expect the acquisition of USRX to further increase these nrs. Troubling is latest qtr, up only 12%, well below normal. Wouldn't touch it till see curr qtr and see if this pattern repeats. tom w ---------- > From: Louis H. Gipson, RN > To: canslim@mail.xmission.com > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] ASMLF/COMS > Date: Friday, April 11, 1997 1:04 AM > > of COMS. The price topped out at about 80 and then quickly dropped to > the mid 30's since March 1, 1997. My question is about the very tight > base this stock seems to be forming. I cannot relate it to other graphs ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: derek b Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] What Works On Wall Street Date: 11 Apr 1997 08:18:19 -0400 Hi Haw-Jye Shyu Jim O'Shaughnessy (author of WWOWS) is a money manager,and runs four mutual funds based on his historical research on successful strategies. It will be interesting to follow the performance of these mutual funds over time (they are just a few months old at this point). An interesting article points out his basic systems. A few snippets and link to full article follow. Derek His main conclusions, reported a year ago in Barron's (Feb. 12, 1996), were that such classic value-oriented strategies as buying stocks with low price-to-book ratios and low price-to-sales ratios have consistently excelled. The price-to-sales ratio is calculated by dividing a company's stock market value by its annual revenues. Companies with low profit margins, like auto makers or retailers, have low price-to-sales ratios, while technology outfits generally have high price-to-sales ratios. O'Shaughnessy found that some of the worst historical performance was generated by purchasing the trendiest stocks of the moment, those with high price-to-earnings, price-to-sales and price-to-book ratios. At the beginning of 1994, this group of highflyers included biotechnology companies, and last year it was Internet stocks. Both sectors fared poorly in the subsequent 12 months. Full article available at: http://www.barrons.com/bie/articles/19970214/strategy.htm > > I just bought a book titled "What Works on Wall Street". For those who > seek statistical information as which strategies can have a > reproducible results, I think this book is worth reading. > Although it is not CANSLIM, I believe it can fit the needs of many > "scientific" minds. > ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: pwahl@postoffice.worldnet.att.net Subject: [CANSLIM] Friday's Market Date: 11 Apr 1997 06:47:06 -0800 Looks like an awful day, at least early. PPI number was not good, so bonds declined, which has caused S&P futures to sell off in the overnight market (Globex). The Indices have been forming lower highs on each rally for the last month. If things continue down today, that would add another delining peak to the charts, that being this weeks feeble rally in each of the 3 indices shown in the IBD. Next week we have the CPI, Retail Sales (I believe), Industrial production - plenty of stuff to give the bond market fuel to continue down, if the economy is as strong as it seems. Intel is due out with earnings on Monday. Lots of talk about whisper numbers, so who knows what anyone actually expects them to report. But as a technology bellwether be interesting to see how the stock responds to the earnings, probably be on Tuesday since I would expect the earnings would be out at the close on Monday. Nothing to do with stocks, just something that one or two people might find of interest - I saw Sunny Harris speak yesterday. She is a futures trader who trades S&P futures. She developed a system 9 years ago that she still trades. Took her 18 months of research, though a lot of that time was because she did the work on a 286 computer and it took a long time to crunch the numbers. She is almost always long or short, carries positions home overnight almost everynight, including 3 day weekends. I know she is short today, so should be pretty happy with the overnight gap. She has the system running on tradestation, it beeps when a trade needs to be placed, has her daughter place the trades some of the time. Says that it is good to have someone who doesn't know much about markets place the orders, because they won't try to override the trades. I believe she sells one of her systems for $50,000. Just to let you guys that like the idea of trading strictly with a system know that it can be done. Just sounds really hard. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: pwahl@postoffice.worldnet.att.net Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] "m" in CANSLIM Date: 10 Apr 1997 20:03:20 -0800 > From: "Brenda" > day really is important. Does anybody think this market could C R A S H > like real, real soon? No. Do you and if so, why? Something has to precipitate a crash, and I don't see anything terribly out of line right now. Valuations are high, but not ridiculously high, the bond market isn't so good, but still only 7% yields. The market looks lousy and I'm not buying right now, but I think it more likely to chop around and dribble somewhat lower than to do anything dramatic. Now if the Fed raises rates a half point in May, there will be big problems. I would be surprised if they do anything more than raise them a quarter point though. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Brian Nash Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] Friday's Market Date: 11 Apr 1997 06:57:57 -0700 Remember last time, INTC got slammed for something like 6 points after soundly beating estimates that had been revised upward umpteen times in the fall. The quote I remember was "there's a sense that the best is now behind them". > ---------- > From: > pwahl@postoffice.worldnet.att.net[SMTP:pwahl@postoffice.worldnet.att.n > et] > Sent: Friday, April 11, 1997 10:47 AM > To: canslim@mail.xmission.com > Subject: [CANSLIM] Friday's Market > > Looks like an awful day, at least early. PPI number was not good, so > bonds declined, which has caused S&P futures to sell off in the > overnight market (Globex). The Indices have been forming lower highs > on each rally for the last month. If things continue down today, > that would add another delining peak to the charts, that being this > weeks feeble rally in each of the 3 indices shown in the IBD. Next > week we have the CPI, Retail Sales (I believe), Industrial > production - plenty of stuff to give the bond market fuel to continue > down, if the economy is as strong as it seems. > > Intel is due out with earnings on Monday. Lots of talk about whisper > numbers, so who knows what anyone actually expects them to report. > But as a technology bellwether be interesting to see how the stock > responds to the earnings, probably be on Tuesday since I would expect > the earnings would be out at the close on Monday. > > > ------------------------------------------------------------------ > > Nothing to do with stocks, just something that one or two people > might find of interest - I saw Sunny Harris speak yesterday. She is > a futures trader who trades S&P futures. She developed a system 9 > years ago that she still trades. Took her 18 months of research, > though a lot of that time was because she did the work on a 286 > computer and it took a long time to crunch the numbers. She is > almost always long or short, carries positions home overnight almost > everynight, including 3 day weekends. I know she is short today, so > should be pretty happy with the overnight gap. She has the system > running on tradestation, it beeps when a trade needs to be placed, > has her daughter place the trades some of the time. Says that it is > good to have someone who doesn't know much about markets place the > orders, because they won't try to override the trades. I believe she > sells one of her systems for $50,000. > > Just to let you guys that like the idea of trading strictly with a > system know that it can be done. Just sounds really hard. > ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Dan Sutton Subject: [CANSLIM] Introduction?! Date: 10 Apr 1997 09:29:05 -0700 I am not new to the group. Have posted a couple of times but mostly try to learn. I live in Boise Idaho, which is good news/bad news. Good news is is a great place to live, bad news is you can't get IBD here. I travel frequently so normally try to pick up a copy at an airport. I have been investing for about 15 years in everything from penny stocks, to tips to futures to Blue Chips and mutual funds. Over the past year I have begun reading and re-reading O'Neils treatise and attempting to apply some of the ideas. I subscribe to TC2000 as well as TELESCAN. Also have a couple of mean spreadsheets and rating sytems that further screen the data from my TS scans. Unfortunately to this point I have only been mildly successful, but am encouraged by the increasing number of correct picks even if I don't buy them. As James/Brenda stated there are an increasing number of small stocks hitting the recent screens (ie. LB today..bought a few hundred at 7 1/8 closed at 8). I would consider myself an absolute neophyte in the investing universe, but hopefully beginning to understand the bigger picture. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Michael A Langston Subject: re: [CANSLIM] The market and earnings Date: 11 Apr 1997 10:56:23 -0400 > I am not posting as many "Market Comments" lately due lack of > time and because I don't see a change in my opinion. so i bring up quotes and w/ sleepy eyes see the dow down 70 -- now waitaminit, deja vu all over again, seems i recall you positing a 70 point drop just last nite now cut that out! -- don't you know that no one's supposd to be that friggin' accurate? -- the next thing we know you'll be modeling pantyhose on tv just like elaine -- and tom, i think i can say w/o fear of contradiction that all of us would rather you not do that!!! mike p.s. oh yea, here's a :) for the humor impaired ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Zoran Mitrovski Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Friday's Market Date: 11 Apr 1997 11:56:57 -0400 (EDT) Patrick wrote: > ------------------------------------------------------------------ > > Nothing to do with stocks, just something that one or two people > might find of interest - I saw Sunny Harris speak yesterday. She is > a futures trader who trades S&P futures. She developed a system 9 > years ago that she still trades. Took her 18 months of research, > though a lot of that time was because she did the work on a 286 > computer and it took a long time to crunch the numbers. She is > almost always long or short, carries positions home overnight almost > everynight, including 3 day weekends. I know she is short today, so > should be pretty happy with the overnight gap. She has the system > running on tradestation, it beeps when a trade needs to be placed, > has her daughter place the trades some of the time. Says that it is > good to have someone who doesn't know much about markets place the > orders, because they won't try to override the trades. I believe she > sells one of her systems for $50,000. > > Just to let you guys that like the idea of trading strictly with a > system know that it can be done. Just sounds really hard. > Patrick, I am absolutely convinced that it can be done and that it IS being done as we speak. Ed Seykota from the Market Wizards trades his own system from his house on lake Tahoe, as well. I also have a buddy of mine at Salomon that works close to guys that trade 9-figured "books" each with their own proprietary systems. If you show them that it works they just give you a "book" and say: Trade away, son! One of them just moved to CS/First Boston since they offered him larger piece of the cake, I guess. Where did you see her speak yesterday? I wonder why she is selling it, and if so WHAT is she selling. If I had my own system chugging along nicely for as long as 9 years I don't think I'd be offering it to anybody for ANY amount of money. I'd also keep quiet about it. I'm sure there are many folks out there who are doing their own thing in the shadows and out of the public spotlight. At least that's how I would act if I ever developed one of those babies. In the meantime I'll do this. ;^) While here...I was reading the specifications for SuperCharts 4.0 ($200) and TradeStation 4.0 ($1000 day-to-day, $2200 intraday) on www.omegaresearch.com and I had hard time discovering what more does TS offer than SC as to justify such a price difference? Both seem to offer custom system design and back-testing. I should just call them and ask I guess. Silly me. Ok, folks, before I grow into the "TA system" maskote of the group. Over. Cheers, Zoran ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Mike Artobello" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Possible CANSLIM graph shapes Date: 11 Apr 1997 09:14:50 -0800 > From: Craig Griffin > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Possible CANSLIM graph shapes > The CANSLIM List archives with the discussion of reading the market charts > based on O'Neil's free seminar started on 02/08/97 (time does fly). The > titles of the posts - there are 3 or 4 of them - are "O'Neil's Seminar (Mkt > Analysis & DG's Online)" and "Reading a Mkt Downtrend (O'Neil's Chart)". > There is also a JPEG file that we shared via Mike Artobello's website (ftp > address is in one of the posts). If anyone actually goes back to read the > archives, check to see if the JPEG is still available. If not let me know > if you want it and I will send it to you via private email. > The FTP site address is: ftp://ftp.ccnet.com/users/marto/mktstudy.jpg CCnet is currently experiencing problems with anonymous FTP, however, tech support is working on it. I've also added it to my home page at the following address:: http://users.ccnet.com/~marto/mktstudy.jpg Regards, Mike Mike Artobello marto@ccnet.com http://www.ccnet.com/~marto/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Linda Thomas Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] Friday's Market Date: 11 Apr 1997 12:31:19 -0400 ------ =_NextPart_000_01BC4674.42EFBE50 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="us-ascii" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable Zoran, I own SuperCharts. Here are some of the differences between it and = TradeStation. TS lets you write much more complex studies where SC = restricts you to fairly simple studies. However, SC can run TS studies, = it just can't edit them. SC only lets you test a system on one security at a time. I believe, = though I'm not certain, that TS lets you backtest against a set of = securities at once. I had hoped to use SC to identify canslim candidates, but the earnings = data that dial/data supplies doesn't arrive in any kind of timely or = reliable fashion. The program is also fairly slow at scanning charts. = I have a 200 MHz pentium pro w/ 128MB ram and it still takes a looooong = time to scan through about 9000 stocks. =20 I'm pretty sure TradeStation uses the same engine underneath and just = gives you access to more of its features so I'd expect performance to be = similar. Maybe if/when they go 32bit performance will improve (and = hopefully they'll thread the thing so you can still use it while it's = scanning), but now it's hard to justify the price. -Linda -----Original Message----- Sent: Friday, April 11, 1997 11:57 AM Cc: Zoran Mitrovski While here...I was reading the specifications for SuperCharts 4.0 ($200) and TradeStation 4.0 ($1000 day-to-day, $2200 intraday) on www.omegaresearch.com and I had hard time discovering what more=20 does TS offer than SC as to justify such a price difference? =20 Both seem to offer custom system design and back-testing. I should just call them and ask I guess. Silly me. Ok, folks, before I grow into the "TA system" maskote of the=20 group. Over. 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Here are some of the differences between it and = > TradeStation. TS lets you write much more complex studies where SC = > restricts you to fairly simple studies. However, SC can run TS studies, = > it just can't edit them. That's very strange. So SC and TS can each understand systems produced by the other one, but SC has poorer editing abilities. And there is no way for someone to produce (edit, write AND compile) TS systems without actually owning TS, right? Seems to me that the only thing SC is lacking is the more complex compiler included with TS, since they can both understand already compiled files. Very strange approach. > SC only lets you test a system on one security at a time. I believe, = > though I'm not certain, that TS lets you backtest against a set of = > securities at once. No biggie, but could become important at some point. > I had hoped to use SC to identify canslim candidates, but the earnings = > data that dial/data supplies doesn't arrive in any kind of timely or = > reliable fashion. The program is also fairly slow at scanning charts. = > I have a 200 MHz pentium pro w/ 128MB ram and it still takes a looooong = > time to scan through about 9000 stocks. =20 Depending on the complexity of the search criteria, I would guess it SHOULD take a long time, Linda. You sure squeeze the juices out of that "Intel Inside". ;^) Congrats on the great machine. I'll just have to stick with my Mac (90 MHz PowerPC 601, 24MB ram) because of compatibility with what I have in my school office, basicaly for MATLAB simulations and printing on the laser printers there. But after I'm done, I'm combining whatever BEST Wintel configuration money can buy. There is no substitute for raw computing power. Takes a lot of the guesswork out of any endeavor. > I'm pretty sure TradeStation uses the same engine underneath and just = > gives you access to more of its features so I'd expect performance to be = > similar. Maybe if/when they go 32bit performance will improve (and = > hopefully they'll thread the thing so you can still use it while it's = > scanning), but now it's hard to justify the price. I agree. Lots of people talk of the 32 bit version. I hope it would come out just about when I become ready for it. ;^) > -Linda Thanks for the info Linda. I hope you won't mind me asking you a SC related question or two through email if/when I have them. Cheers, Zoran http://www.seas.rochester.edu:8080/ee/users/zmitrov/home.html ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Jay Cliburn" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Introduction?! Date: 11 Apr 1997 11:26:53 -0600 > I am not new to the group. Have posted a couple of times but mostly try > to learn. I live in Boise Idaho, which is good news/bad news. Good news > is is a great place to live, bad news is you can't get IBD here. I live in Logan, Utah and receive IBD by mail -- usually the day of the issue. Don't know how they do it, but they do it. -- Jay Cliburn | Space Dynamics Laboratory Computational Sciences Division | 1747 North Research Park Way Jay.Cliburn@sdl.usu.edu | Logan, Utah, USA 84341 (801) 755-4317 (voice) | (801) 755-4366 (fax) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Craig Griffin Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] The market and earnings Date: 11 Apr 1997 13:29:02 -0400 (EDT) Tom, At 07:47 AM 4/11/97 -0400, you wrote: >... Great earnings reports are out there, trouble is how >they are being treated. Here are a few from yesterday, ... >WDC 1.76, (expected was 1.42 to 1.45) ... >DS .50 (.38) ... I enjoy seeing these, thanks for posting them. DS is up 5 to 31 5/8 today in a market that has other good reports down. WDC down 3 3/8 to 62 1/2. DOW is down 84 at this point, NASDAQ down 19. Interesting. Craig ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Linda Thomas Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] SuperCharts vs TradeStation Date: 11 Apr 1997 13:38:25 -0400 ------ =_NextPart_000_01BC467D.A22129F0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="us-ascii" Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit Sure, no problem. -Linda -----Original Message----- Sent: Friday, April 11, 1997 1:11 PM Cc: Zoran Mitrovski Thanks for the info Linda. 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At lot of pros use TradeStation, though I've heard a lot of people complain about Omega Research support and service and software quality. If you are serious about trading systems get a back issue of Technical Analysis of Stocks and Commodities where they review the various packages. You can at least see the comparison of features on their WWW site: http://traders.com/ TradeStation got best trading software (over $500) You might want to take a look at AIQ TradingExpert: http://www.aiq/com It got best AI/neural net program and I believe they are having a sale price on it ~ $600. - Jonathan. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Zoran Mitrovski Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] SuperCharts vs TradeStation (fwd) Date: 11 Apr 1997 14:54:36 -0400 (EDT) Forwarded message: From zmitrov@ee.rochester.edu Fri Apr 11 14:53:20 1997 Message-Id: <9704111853.AA27679@galaxy.ee.rochester.edu> Cc: zmitrov@ee.rochester.edu (Zoran Mitrovski) In-Reply-To: <199704111822.OAA11524@spock.ascc> from "Jonathan Polito - Lucent ASCC" at Apr 11, 97 02:22:47 pm X-Mailer: ELM [version 2.4 PL25] Mime-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset=US-ASCII Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit Content-Length: 1623 Jonathan wrote: > SC used to be able edit the EasyLang formulae (just didn't document > it) but in the new version of SC they disabled that feature. At lot of > pros use TradeStation, though I've heard a lot of people complain > about Omega Research support and service and software quality. You can still edit EasyLanguage in SC, but with limited complexity. I too have heard complaints about Omega on Usenet. But I cannot see anything else out there even approaching the flexibility and abilities of TS. > If you are serious about trading systems get a back issue of Technical > Analysis of Stocks and Commodities where they review the various > packages. You can at least see the comparison of features on their WWW > site: > http://traders.com/ I've been reading every issue of TASC in Barnes and Nobles for the past four months. And I did check their comparison of features on the web. I have a feeling that a subscription is what I may get from my girlfriend for our aniversary. ;^) > TradeStation got best trading software (over $500) > You might want to take a look at AIQ TradingExpert: > http://www.aiq/com > It got best AI/neural net program and I believe they are having a sale > price on it ~ $600. I checked their site after you posted it. After 10 minutes spent there I still couldn't conclude whether TradingExpert is trading SOFTWARE or just another trading SYSTEM ("black box"). I personally hate black boxes, and I'd prefer to build and test my own systems. > - Jonathan. Thanks for the input, Jonathan. Cheers, Zoran http://www.seas.rochester.edu:8080/ee/users/zmitrov/home.html ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Michael A Langston Subject: [CANSLIM] no real bottom in sight Date: 11 Apr 1997 15:41:46 -0400 tick low only -1250 so far today, not enuf nyse volume < 400M sh so far today, also not enuf still doesn't seem like a bottom to me (of course i'm often wrong!) -- anyone else care to opine? mike p.s. i tried to suggest that a friend put a stop under his CCI stake at 119 7/8, he didn't, sigh, now he's just one more shareholder who may be likely to sell the next rally...sigh, there could be a lot of overhead supply for a spell... ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Zoran Mitrovski Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] no real bottom in sight Date: 11 Apr 1997 16:15:24 -0400 (EDT) mike wrote: > tick low only -1250 so far today, not enuf > > nyse volume < 400M sh so far today, also not enuf > > still doesn't seem like a bottom to me (of course i'm often wrong!) -- > anyone else care to opine? I agree with you, mike, but that may mean nothing more than just another reason for the bottom to be actually there. ;^) Just for safety, I covered all my shorts today. (Darn, I haven't been long anything in months!) I bought myself some piece of mind for $10/trade and I'll let my bears rest for a while. "Good job, Smokey". None of them even tried to scare me away by approaching the stops above the trend lines. On the contrary. > mike > > p.s. i tried to suggest that a friend put a stop under his CCI stake > at 119 7/8, he didn't, sigh, now he's just one more shareholder who > may be likely to sell the next rally...sigh, there could be a lot > of overhead supply for a spell... I know. It's going to be hard playing clean canslim in the forseeable future. AFAIK, shorting in markets where canslim becomes imposible as in this one, is as canslim as canslim could possibly be. Or something like that... O'Neil ought to include a chapter or two on this one in his next edition. Time for this "heresy" to be accepted as a proper part of the canslim gospel. ;^) Cheers, Zoran http://www.seas.rochester.edu:8080/ee/users/zmitrov/home.html ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: jeff@scrooge.idec.sdl.usu.edu (Jeff Salisbury) Subject: [CANSLIM] Modification of CANSLIM welcome message Date: 11 Apr 1997 14:51:14 -0600 Tom and Zoran, I just modified the canlsim intro blurb to incorporate your suggestions regarding the importance of reading O'Neil's book, and the introduction header. If you want to check it out, send email to majordomo@xmission.com. In the body of the email, write "info canslim". Jeff ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Zoran Mitrovski Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Modification of CANSLIM welcome message Date: 11 Apr 1997 19:35:04 -0400 (EDT) > > Tom and Zoran, > > I just modified the canlsim intro blurb to incorporate your suggestions > regarding the importance of reading O'Neil's book, and the introduction header. > If you want to check it out, send email to majordomo@xmission.com. In the > body of the email, write "info canslim". > > Jeff Looks perfect, Jeff. I noticed a minor spelling error in the first sentence: "Please keep this message since in contains instructions to remove yourself from the list in the future." |________ "it" Thanks, Zoran ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] "m" in CANSLIM Date: 11 Apr 1997 20:38:22 -0400 Based on a very hasty review of the two reports today (PPI and retail sales) before I left the office at 8 tonight, I have raised my forecasts. I now consider a rate hike at the May 20 meeting a certainty, and rate a 50bp hike as probable (vice possible). Will post more as I complete my review and get more data. There were some words from Fed gov's today which may cause me to back off this position slightly, but even then consider 50bp a possible worst case scenario and prepare for it esp if the mkt doesn't. Today is one of those days where I really don't enjoy what I do here. I thought I was putting my head on the chopping block with both my predictions on retail sales and PPI as well as what the mkt would do today. In fact I turn out to have been awful conservative, even if I was well beyond the professional analysts and commentators and economists. Now, if I had had some money on the short side, or owned lots of puts, maybe I could have enjoyed today better. tom w ---------- > From: pwahl@postoffice.worldnet.att.net > To: canslim@mail.xmission.com > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] "m" in CANSLIM > Date: Friday, April 11, 1997 12:03 AM > > > From: "Brenda" > > > day really is important. Does anybody think this market could C R A S H > > like real, real soon? > > No. Do you and if so, why? Something has to precipitate a crash, > somewhat lower than to do anything dramatic. Now if the Fed raises > rates a half point in May, there will be big problems. I would be > surprised if they do anything more than raise them a quarter point > though. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] no real bottom in sight Date: 11 Apr 1997 20:47:01 -0400 I expect we will have some short rallies after today, altho CPI next week might jar that somewhat. Overall, we seem able to move thru any support out there for now, and the earnings cycle isn't stopping that. tom w ---------- > From: Michael A Langston > To: canslim@mail.xmission.com > Subject: [CANSLIM] no real bottom in sight > Date: Friday, April 11, 1997 3:41 PM > > still doesn't seem like a bottom to me (of course i'm often wrong!) -- > anyone else care to opine? > ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] The market and earnings Date: 11 Apr 1997 20:53:06 -0400 I was definitely impressed by the gap up on DS and KEA, both up over 5 pts today. Did note that DS had a nice base to springboard out of, just surprising it could do so. KEA did get a wirehouse upgrade, which definitely helped it. The other three that reported pos earnings surprises after the close all gapped down, altho worth noting that CUBE managed to reverse a 2 pt loss into a 3/8 gain for the day. Worth watching. tom w ---------- > From: Craig Griffin > To: canslim@mail.xmission.com > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] The market and earnings > Date: Friday, April 11, 1997 1:29 PM > > I enjoy seeing these, thanks for posting them. DS is up 5 to 31 5/8 today > in a market that has other good reports down. WDC down 3 3/8 to 62 1/2. > DOW is down 84 at this point, NASDAQ down 19. Interesting. > > Craig ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] The market and earnings Date: 11 Apr 1997 20:56:11 -0400 No fear on the pantyhose, my legs are too hairy. You omitted that I also predicted NASDAQ down over 1% and Russell 2000 down less than NASDAQ. The damage was more severe than I anticipated, but then so was PPI and retail sales. As I said earlier, sometimes I hate being right. Doesn't feel that good, somehow. tom w ---------- > From: Michael A Langston > To: canslim@mail.xmission.com > Subject: re: [CANSLIM] The market and earnings > Date: Friday, April 11, 1997 10:56 AM > > > I am not posting as many "Market Comments" lately due lack of > > time and because I don't see a change in my opinion. > > so i bring up quotes and w/ sleepy eyes see the dow down 70 -- > now waitaminit, deja vu all over again, seems i recall you > positing a 70 point drop just last nite > > now cut that out! -- don't you know that no one's supposd to > be that friggin' accurate? -- the next thing we know you'll be > modeling pantyhose on tv just like elaine -- and tom, i think > i can say w/o fear of contradiction that all of us would rather > you not do that!!! > > mike > > p.s. oh yea, here's a :) for the humor impaired ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: [CANSLIM] EARNINGS Date: 11 Apr 1997 21:36:49 -0400 I printed off a six page report of First Call earnings estimates for those stocks supposed to report some time next week (looks like a busy week). Rather than generally post the ones that mean something to me, I will respond to anyone who doesn't have access to First Call or some other earnings forecasting system and who has specific stocks you want to know about (so you can plan). This will be a weekend project, so get your requests in early as I will have to fit responses in around picking up my outboard motor and taking a cat to the vet and other humdrum household chores. Send your request to stkguru@netside.net and please use EARNINGS as your subj line, and include the stock symbol(s) in the body of the msg. tom w ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: GoldFish Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] The market and earnings Date: 11 Apr 1997 21:45:24 -0700 Tom Worley wrote: > > I was definitely impressed by the gap up on DS and KEA, both up > over 5 pts today. Did note that DS had a nice base to springboard > out of, just surprising it could do so. KEA did get a wirehouse > upgrade, which definitely helped it. > The other three that reported pos earnings surprises after the > close all gapped down, altho worth noting that CUBE managed to > reverse a 2 pt loss into a 3/8 gain for the day. Worth watching. > > tom w > ---------- Tom: I was watching them. I am very impreessive with your eagle eyes. Questions: 1) What on earth that you are able to spot them? 2) How can you predict them to gap up? 3) All of them have strong earning, but only two of them jump up, why? If earning is that important, then they should all jump up in price right? Did you buy any of them? What should we do from here? HJS ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: PPNewell@aol.com Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] "m" in CANSLIM Date: 11 Apr 1997 21:59:29 -0400 (EDT) Isn't the falling of the market leaders a sign of a bear market. Wish I had the answer. Most of the people I know have finished their bottom fishing. Peter Newell ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: PPNewell@aol.com Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] What Works On Wall Street Date: 11 Apr 1997 22:03:15 -0400 (EDT) I read some info from his book something like "Invest like the masters" anyhow he backed tested CANSLIM using non subjective criteria and came up with a 30% annual return from 85-92, not exactly the best times due to 2 downdrafts. No, year ever had a loss. Peter Newell ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: GoldFish Subject: [CANSLIM] Re: CANSLIM on COMS Date: 11 Apr 1997 22:16:17 -0700 Tom: Tom: Tom: I appreciate your post on applying CANSLIM analysis on COMS. Let me summarize your points: 1)COMS has to move over its previous resistance level. (To buy only when it has a price break thru) 2)RS is much more heavier than EPS ranking. (popularity is more important than Earning) 3)Future earning estimation (97 and 98) is not as important as the next earning report. (You want to confirm the new trend of earning) If I know better, I probably will not loss so much of money. HJS Tom Worley wrote: > > A move over about 42 on volume, if sustained, could be encouraging. > Right now RS is 9! Until fears of slowing growth in this industry > are resolved, don't see much daylight except for the value players. > After all, EPS is still 95 even with a/d at E. Funds reported with > 28%, 1997 earnings est up 30% and 27% for '98. I expect the > acquisition of USRX to further increase these nrs. Troubling is > latest qtr, up only 12%, well below normal. Wouldn't touch it till > see curr qtr and see if this pattern repeats. > > tom w > ---------- ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: GoldFish Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] "m" in CANSLIM Date: 11 Apr 1997 23:11:54 -0700 PPNewell@aol.com wrote: > > Isn't the falling of the market leaders a sign of a bear market. > > Wish I had the answer. Most of the people I know have finished their bottom > fishing. > > Peter Newell I watched Louis Rukyser's Wall Street Week tonight. Martin Zwige (sp?) said when the big guy is falling, it is a sign of bottom. He has the same opinion as Tom, believe a rally should take place in the near term. The guest tonight is a value oriented mutual fund manager. He has not bought any stock since last October, but he is nibbling now. I doubt that the bottom fishing is finished. After Tom's analysis on COMS, I am really confused about the importance of furture earning. According to next year earning estimation, Intell is selling with project PE=12.6 and COMS is selling with project PE=12.40. I just hope that they will not go down further. It is hard to believe that growth stock can be on this kind of price level. Haw-Jye Shyu Haw-Jye Shyu ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Re: CANSLIM on COMS Date: 12 Apr 1997 09:25:49 -0400 That's how I read it, time will tell. tom w ---------- > From: GoldFish > To: canslim@mail.xmission.com > Subject: [CANSLIM] Re: CANSLIM on COMS > Date: Saturday, April 12, 1997 1:16 AM > > I appreciate your post on applying CANSLIM analysis on COMS. > Let me summarize your points: ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] "m" in CANSLIM Date: 12 Apr 1997 09:23:28 -0400 Been there, seen that. This situation is a tough one for CANSLIMers, and a delight for patient, long term value players. Most of our favorite stocks, esp techs, are so battered down that it takes far more than a stretch of the imagination to justify a buy. Yet, the economy is healthy, the fundamentals of the leaders are still good, comsumers are working and buying, overall interest rates, while rising, are still historically low, gold is bearish, dollar is stronger, and the good cos keep on growing. Don't misunderstand me, I am not calling for a "rally" anytime soon, quite possibly not till after May 20, and probably not till mid-July. At least not a rally you can trust from a CANSLIM point of view. I base this on the following (which is essentially the "worst case scenario" I forecast some weeks ago: inflation is increasing, a March hike, more inflation signals, probable addl rate hike, earnings come out but not as strong as expected and definitely not as strong as last earnings cycle (too early to tell on this yet), earnings fails to rally the mkt which now focuses on a May rate hike and its effects. Finally we get thru May and start seeing Q2 earnings in mid July. If good, and signs of too rapid economic growth have abated by then, which I believe will be the case, then a true rally can begin which should carry us thru the end of the year. If the Feds go up 50bp in May, that may be the last rate hike for the year. For those who stick to CANSLIM meanwhile, keep looking for tight bases. They are hard to find, and I am kicking myself for missing the one on DS. Some speculative calls before their earnings were reported would have made a nice fast profit without risking too much capital. Oh well. For others, you may want to use some of the CANSLIM principles and blend it with value shopping. If so, you have to be patient, and willing to suffer a loss at least temporarily, and there is no guarantee this mkt won't go down further.You can't effectively use stop loss concepts when you do this, but you can study recent and projected earnings, performance of the group, the stock's chart to try and determine support, etc. Watch the RS for a trend up, watch EPS for a shift down. Check the up/down vol ratio regularly, you want to see it over 0.8 at a min, any drop below this is bad. Probably within the next several weeks the charts will be updated with the latest qtr reports from mutual funds on their holdings. Watch for neg changes, save your old chart (in fact I recommend saving the chart you used when you do a buy, then compare it to newer ones as long as you hold the position). There are opportunities out there, just a LOT more risk right now. As for COMS, what I said is for value investors, projected earnings make it attractive at present prices. But you still have to remember that those projections were made on the basis of past growth rates, and it is fear of that very growth rate slowing that has knocked down the entire networking group. Thus, I would not touch it till after they report Q1 and we get another look at growth. Q4 was troubling, if Q1 looks a lot like it then I expect earnings estimate cuts, and the projected PE will no longer be so low, even with a further drop in price. tom w ---------- > From: GoldFish > To: canslim@mail.xmission.com > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] "m" in CANSLIM > Date: Saturday, April 12, 1997 2:11 AM > > PPNewell@aol.com wrote: > > > > Isn't the falling of the market leaders a sign of a bear market. > > > > Wish I had the answer. Most of the people I know have finished their bottom > > fishing. > > > > Peter Newell > > I watched Louis Rukyser's Wall Street Week tonight. > Martin Zwige (sp?) said when the big guy is falling, it is a sign of > bottom. > > The guest tonight is a value oriented mutual fund manager. He has not > bought any stock since last October, but he is nibbling now. I doubt > that the bottom fishing is finished. > > After Tom's analysis on COMS, I am really confused about the importance > of furture earning. According to next year earning estimation, > Intell is selling with project PE=12.6 and COMS is selling with project > PE=12.40. I just hope that they will not go down further. It is hard to > believe that growth stock can be on this kind of price level. > > Haw-Jye Shyu > > Haw-Jye Shyu ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Luke Lang Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] The market and earnings Date: 12 Apr 1997 09:49:10 -0500 Tom, A friend that works at ESST (a competitor of CUBE) says to be careful with CUBE. He cited something about increase in inventory that might become obsolete soon and therefore requires a write-down. This led to a general discussion about how to treat inventory. Even though it is listed as assests, it might overnight become a liability, especially in the fast moving high tech business. Does anyone with business background care to comment? Thanks. Luke Lang Tom Worley wrote: > > The other three that reported pos earnings surprises after the > close all gapped down, altho worth noting that CUBE managed to > reverse a 2 pt loss into a 3/8 gain for the day. Worth watching. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Craig Griffin Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] CANSLIM Question Date: 12 Apr 1997 13:27:19 -0400 (EDT) * Lost message from yesterday - resend * Tapas, At 07:48 PM 4/10/97 -0400, you wrote: > 1. What is the rationale behind choosing a canslim stock which has a > chart pattern CUP and HANDLE? This is a pattern that shows that the weak holders have gotten out of the stock (as the left side of the cup is formed, there is more selling than buying). Then the right side of the cup forms and takes the price back to nearly the old high. Many sell here as they get out even or with a small profit from earlier purchases. The handle forms as the price drifts sideways and the volume drys up (sellers are disappearing and buyers are not yet willing to pay more than the old high). Eventually, if the price breaks out to a new high on 150% ADV, we buy (Canslim'rs) because the sellers are mostly gone and the buyers are in control. Also this shows that the market is ready to pay higher prices for this stock. The higher the volume on the breakout the better, shows lots of buyers. The other basing patterns (flat base, rolling base, saucer, double bottom), all create more or less the same result. Sometimes you have more of one base than another in the market. All can be equally good to buy from on a b/o (breakout). > 2. Does any good mutual fund manager follow canslim method? > I am interested to find out volume investing works for canslim. Mutual funds are too big (too much money to manage and must own too many stocks) to do Canslim. Canslim cannot be done in a mutual fund (IMHO), although some funds may use CANSLIM criteria as part of their selection method. > 3. We have various experienced investors, who have tried > different investing methods. I understand that 'canslim' > matches personal likings and personality. However I curious > to know how do you compare your investment return(%), from other > methodology vs. canslim. Canslim allows you a better understanding of the market. The returns depend on the practitioner and the market. No other method allows the possibility of such stellar returns and at the same time limits the risk, without being too complicated. Many other methods allow long term investors to do well in the market, but the possibility of 30% returns is minimal. Take Peter Lynch for example. Very simple approach, returns are not likely to be huge unless you happen onto a 10 bagger, but may well beat the S&P 500. Same might be said for Motley Fools (although I think they lucked into a couple of great stocks in their model portfolio - AOL & IOM). The Fools' limitation is unwillingness to use charts for entry points after making their selection and refusal therefore to use stop loss when taking a position (see ATCT). I think CANSLIM is at least a good starting point. Once you understand CANSLIM, many elements can be applied to other methods (such as the Fools) with a longer term orientation to improve returns. All just IMHO, of course. > 4. How do you pick canslim stocks. Do you go through graphs of all > stocks to find out good canslim candidate, or you set query > criteria e.g P/E,RS,EPS Rank and the charting S/W(e.g DG) outputs > the stock? Use DG to look for good chart patterns (bases) first. Ignore all stocks that are more than about 15% from the top of their base. Pay special attention to bases that look ready to breakout (tightening patterns). Another way to do this is to take all stocks in the Friday IBD "Your Weekend Review" - 200 stocks. And then look at them with a charting package such as Quotes Plus or WWW.DailyGraphs.COM. THEN do second level filtering: look at all of the other CANSLIM characteristics. This way you can eliminate 95% of all stocks in DG just by glancing at the chart patterns. Of course next week you will have a slightly changed set of candidates as stocks that were not quite ready the week before become ready. Remember, however, that in a market like this one you should be in cash because breakouts will tend to fail. One must wait for an upward trending market to buy CANSLIM stocks. > Thanks, > - Tapas You are welcome. Hope this helps. Craig ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Craig Griffin Subject: Re: [CANSLIM]Returning to a discussion of CANSLIM Date: 12 Apr 1997 13:27:15 -0400 (EDT) * Lost message from yesterday - resend * Douglas, Luke Lang has already given you some great ideas re: filtering. I do look at the chart pattern first (see my parallel response to Tapas). But I too am a strong believer in Relative Strength, all else being equal. At 07:06 AM 4/10/97 -0400, you wrote: >What do you consider to be new? I like to look for something new such as new >products or a new way of doing business or new markets rather than a new >earnings report or another change in management. What do you look for? All of the above. A new high in price (from a valid base) is another New that O'Neil refers to. >Remembering that leaders are sometimes distinguished by the arrows in their >backs, what kind of industry leadership do you look for and how important is >it in relation to other CANSLIM criteria? Very important. The leaders can usually be found by looking at the top two or three stocks in a group (those with the strongest relative strength). Note that this is how the 5 other stocks in the same group is listed on each DG chart. Those are the group leaders. Another way to think about leaders is to know something about the group. Quick, who is the leading PC manufacturer? I would say Dell or Compaq, with Gateway third. Take a look at the charts of all three over the last two years and you will see who the true leader is. All of them look good because they are all leaders in the group, but one stands out IMO. >How much weight do you give to fund ownership? I like for the stock to have some fund ownership (at least 1%, preferably 5-6%). Stocks with more than about 25% to 30% fund ownership do not have as much room for additional fund interest to drive them up. So I try not to buy stocks with more than about 25%. But there are times when I make an exception. >Does the general stock market override all selections? I've noticed in Daily >Graphs (OTC) that there are some stocks that have held their own or actually >risen even during the current correction (not many but there are some). Yes, the market does override all selections. There will always be counter trend stocks. But in a general market decline it becomes very hard to find them. When you do find them they tend to not go up very much. And when you make a mistake, the market tends to take you to the woodshed. Better to go long when the odds are more in your favor. There are exceptions, but you gotta be darned good to pick them and ride them very far. >How about it experienced CANSLIM folks. What do you think is most important >and least important? When you read Investors' Business Daily what do you look >for first? Sorry, I ran out of steam on this one, maybe someone else can give you some opinions here. Regards, Craig ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: GoldFish Subject: [CANSLIM] Weekely update on Jame's Stock Picks 4/4/97 Date: 12 Apr 1997 18:54:03 -0700 Hi Folks: I use "MY Yahoo" to setup a portfolio for Jame's stock picks. Here is this week result. If there is no objection, I'll post it every Saturday. Assumed we buy one share from each company with the price on the day that Jame suggested (4/4/97). Comission was not factored in because Mr. O'Neil said so on page 240, item 13, in his book. This is just an exercise. price Current paid gain ASTSF $35 $34 +$1.00 +2.94% GDYS $21 3/8 $23 5/8 -$2.25 -9.52% MLHR $74 $71 1/8 +$2.28 +4.04% PSUN $31 $34 -$3.00 -8.82% SRR $14 3/4 $15 1/4 -$0.50 -3.28% TUES $30 1/2 $33 -$2.50 -7.58% EPS last Q current Q 97 FY 98 FY ASTSF n/a 0.35 1.66 2.26 GDYS 0.62 0.18 1.20 1.50 MLHR 0.79 0.82 3.02 3.59 PSUN 0.40 0.02 1.19 1.51 SRR 0.08 0.12 0.28 0.53 TUES 1.33 0.05 1.69 1.84 Based on CANSLIM: 1) C- GDYS,PSUN,TUES violated C in CANSLIM. (i.e. current quarter has a decreasing earning) A- All of them violate A in CANSLIM. (i.e None of them has a stable and consistent 5 year earning record) N- They satisfiy N in CANSLIM. All of them have New high recently. I'll let someone else to say something about "SLIM" for these stocks. We should sell GDYS,PSUN and TUES based on CANSLIM 7% (8%) stop loss rule specified by Mr. O'neil on page 87 in his book. 2)MLHR is a office furniture manufacture; ASTSF is an integrated-circuit testing firm in Taiwan; the rest is in apparel industry. 3)The key common feature (IMHO) for all these companies is that they have an overall upward trend (in up channel) and this trend seems to be still holding. The estimated annual earning is also increasing. 4)for fundamental data, we can go to http://www.dailystocks.com/ to dig out. 5)For earning estimate, we can go to http://www.ultra.zacks.com/cgi-bin/ShowFreeCompRep to find out. 6)the 97 and 98 Fisical Year earning are estimation. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: pwahl@postoffice.worldnet.att.net Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] "m" in CANSLIM Date: 12 Apr 1997 15:55:35 -0800 > From: GoldFish > After Tom's analysis on COMS, I am really confused about the importance > of furture earning. According to next year earning estimation, > Intell is selling with project PE=12.6 and COMS is selling with project > PE=12.40. I just hope that they will not go down further. It is hard to > believe that growth stock can be on this kind of price level. I think part of the explanation is how reliable those earnings forecast are thought to be. Lots of uncertainty in technology stocks earnings estimates because things change so fast. Before Applied Materials tanked a year ago or whenever, there were all sorts of rosy earnings forecasts for the year ahead, which all proved to be way too optimistic. Three Com is a good buy and will get back to higher levels if those earnings estimates are accurate. If not, then it could lay there for a while. I think there is some uncertainty regarding a 3Com product due to an Intel price cut in a competing product, plus probably general uncertainty about the USRX acquisition. Some stocks that are an absolute lock to hit their earnings estimates (GE, Abott Labs, Coke are a few) will get a higher PE multiple than their growth rate because they are so dependable. Patrick Wahl ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] The market and earnings Date: 12 Apr 1997 19:14:34 -0400 I haven't followed CUBE close eno ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Weekely update on Jame's Stock Picks 4/4/97 Date: 12 Apr 1997 19:19:09 -0400 Nice review, no problem in a weekly review like this, helps remind us of some of the stocks mentioned and how they are doing. One comment: you might want to put an "*" or some such by those where he already owned them from a different price and is just mentioning them for the first time. tom w ---------- > From: GoldFish > To: canslim@mail.xmission.com > Subject: [CANSLIM] Weekely update on Jame's Stock Picks 4/4/97 > Date: Saturday, April 12, 1997 9:54 PM > > Hi Folks: > > I use "MY Yahoo" to setup a portfolio for Jame's stock picks. Here is > this week result. If there is no objection, I'll post it every Saturday. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: derek b Subject: [CANSLIM] WON on AOL Date: 12 Apr 1997 20:30:09 -0400 found on another list: ---------------------- William O'Neil, founder of Investors Business Daily will be appearing live on American Online on Monday 4/14/97 at 7 pm PST/10pm EST. Keyword: Personal Finance Live. It will be interesting to see what the granddaddy of momentum investing has to say about the current market. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: derek b Subject: [CANSLIM] After hours trading Date: 12 Apr 1997 20:43:15 -0400 Looks like this trend will continue: "Increasingly, companies are making announcements after the close of regular market hours. Before the next day's opening bell, pros may have bought and sold thousands of shares in after-hours trading. Should little investors care? ... a handful of companies offer ways for individuals to tap into off-hours systems. Prominent among these firms is PT Discount Brokerage, a young Chicago-based broker that sells individuals access to Instinet and SelectNet - through which securities firms trade with each other - before and after market hours." http://www.barrons.com/bie/articles/19970411/aftershocks.htm ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Brenda" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Weekely update on Jame's Stock Picks 4/4/97 Date: 12 Apr 1997 20:10:54 -0500 It's almost scary to think that somebody would do that much work from "my" suggestions to "take a LOOK at". However, I ALWAYS tell anybody before ever purchasing any stock to please ALWAYS do your own homework. Never buy on somebody else's suggestion. At the time I recommended those stocks they graded out higher than all other stocks on all exchanges. That tells a mouthful. When you start seeing names like this leading the pack it tells you a lot about the cycle. Just received letter from Wm On'Neil about the market, it's condition, and what to do in a generally declining market (all IBD subscribers should have gotten one). I grade a stock on eight different fronts before I purchase it into my "System Portfolio". At the time these stocks graded out 95 or higher they graded out as follows: STK Mgt EPS REL ACC SPN GRP GRF GRF Avg Score L S MLHR 3 96 98 95 95 95 98 92 98.7 GDYS 62 78 98 95 95 95 92 96 97.0 PSUN 4 84 99 95 95 95 90 86 96.2 ASTSF 2 72 99 95 95 95 93 88 96.0 TUES 35 68 99 95 95 95 93 90 95.9 SRR 1 59 97 95 95 95 93 95 95.6 I stated that the week only had six stocks that graded out higher than 95 which is the BOTTOM that qualifies a stock for "consideration". When the market conditions are right there will be 50-100 that will grade out higher than 95. l "prefer" not to buy stocks that do not grade out in the 98.5 category or higher and usually can dip down to even 97.5 without a "lot" of trepidation. Notice that stipulation throws out everything except for MLHR. Still "The System" does buy the top five each week, when there is a top five grading out 95 or higher, buying an equal dollar amount of each. This incorporated some of Lynch's theory of buying in lots of five and even he has NO idea which will do well. He expects at least one to tank, one to do real well and he hopes the others "sorta hold their own". I've noticed that when he gives picks based on using 5 as a guide he is within those boundaries. If one "could have" purchased those stocks for the prices you stated (Friday's closing prices) for the week the net result would be Down 3.8%. I wonder how many people in the WORLD would like to be down 3.8% for last weeks activity. Particulary for those buying in on Monday. The ratings above are done according to" % of stock owned by management, EPS rating taken out of most current IBD issue, Relative Strength rating out of IBD, Accumulation of out IBD, Sponsorship Ownership (Must be owned by a Mutual Fund and given A, B & C rating usually, not always in IBD Week-End Review, Group Grade out of IBD, Graph (aka - price pattern) Long Term One Year grade, and Graph Short Term grade (30 days ignoring anything previous to 30 days old). Letter grades out of IBD are converted to number grades. A-95, B-85, C-70, D-60, E-50 - The graph grade is my only subjective insertion. I look at the stock and attempt to grade volatility. I look at the stock and imagine being an 85 year old who owns only this ONE stock and lives, eats, pays the rent, etc. on what this stock has done and does in the future. The higher grade I give it the less the stock volatility. A 99 grade states absolutely NO 5% dip in a year.My grading system can be taught (wish i could teach it to my computer) but it is not easy to learn as Brenda would attestify to. I prefer to own a stock where management owns more than 10% but less than 40%. I use this almost as a tie breaker. Give two stocks equal in almost all other aspects and one falls into the management criteria and the other doesn't I prefer to own the one which falls into the management qualification category. Since 1990 I have ALWAYS had a top five prior to March 14, 1997. That was the first week there was no top five. That was an EXTREME notification of market conditions. I also keep up with a top 25 list and I have not had a top 25 list since the first of the year. Once I quit having a top 25 list that also was a notification that market conditions were deteriorating. The top 25 list quit before tops were hit in the indexes. We all have our own theories, ideas and are constantly looking for ways to hone and improve our skills, increase our knowledge and certainly make this investing thing a little easier. For me, CANSLIM is the best system "fully explained" out there in print. I like buying winners. I like buying the creme de la creme of the market. I like buying stocks in the top 5% of all stocks on the market. I like it when the stocks I buy are in the top 5% in ALL categories. I live (eat and pay the rent) based on whether I am successful in the market or not. Not an easy way to make a living and I work the hardest and make the least in times just likes these. It "appears" I work the least and make the most in the up cycles. That appears that way because of the work done in times like these and "being in" the right places "at the right time" when the break outs up come and not having to be notified that the time is here. At that time a good percentage of the upward move has already been made. I am usually in for that initial ride up. Hope this text has not been too terribly long. Just wanted some of you newcomers to get a better feel for some of what I "sorta do". Could never explain it here. When I mention a stock many times it will just be because of the graph (aka price pattern) shape. For me, I put it into a holding tank (a portfolio on my TC2000). I watch it for a while and as soon as I can or it appears to be acting right I grade it out on all fronts. Volume is not mentioned but it factors into the graph grade. A stock trading 5000 shares daily compared with a stock trading 100,000 shares a day has to have a tremendously better, tighter graph shape to get the same grade. Oh well, better run. Hope this helps somewhat. James By the way. Did not have 5 stocks grade out over 95 this week, thusly NO top five list. Last week, simply "implied" that conditions were favorable for a consolidation. I still think that is true. Personally, I think we are "about at" a consolidation point. NONE I my stocks stopped out Friday but a lot are within a dollar and some 1/8 of being executed which pretty much guarantees that will execute Monday morning. I never change on downward, only upward. Yes, I use more than a 8% and I did read Mr. O'Neils letter which states 8%. Personally, IF YOU ARE GOING TO BE IN OUR CURRENT MARKET, which I advise against for most IMHO an 8% stop/loss will stop you out of 95% or better of any investment you make. Has anybody ever subscribed to the O'Neil wire service (about $20,000 a year) where he buys and sells stocks. I've been told that the biggest offender and mis-user of the CANSLIM system........... Has anybody actually tracked that service? Have a good week-end! James ---------- > From: GoldFish > To: canslim@mail.xmission.com > Subject: [CANSLIM] Weekely update on Jame's Stock Picks 4/4/97 > Date: Saturday, April 12, 1997 8:54 PM > > Hi Folks: > > I use "MY Yahoo" to setup a portfolio for Jame's stock picks. Here is > this week result. If there is no objection, I'll post it every Saturday. > Assumed we buy one share from each company with the price on > the day that Jame suggested (4/4/97). Comission was not factored in > because Mr. O'Neil said so on page 240, item 13, in his book. > This is just an exercise. > > price Current paid gain > ASTSF $35 $34 +$1.00 +2.94% > GDYS $21 3/8 $23 5/8 -$2.25 -9.52% > MLHR $74 $71 1/8 +$2.28 +4.04% > PSUN $31 $34 -$3.00 -8.82% > SRR $14 3/4 $15 1/4 -$0.50 -3.28% > TUES $30 1/2 $33 -$2.50 -7.58% > > EPS last Q current Q 97 FY 98 FY > ASTSF n/a 0.35 1.66 2.26 > GDYS 0.62 0.18 1.20 1.50 > MLHR 0.79 0.82 3.02 3.59 > PSUN 0.40 0.02 1.19 1.51 > SRR 0.08 0.12 0.28 0.53 > TUES 1.33 0.05 1.69 1.84 > > Based on CANSLIM: > 1) > C- GDYS,PSUN,TUES violated C in CANSLIM. (i.e. current quarter > has a decreasing earning) > A- All of them violate A in CANSLIM. (i.e None of them has a > stable and consistent 5 year earning record) > N- They satisfiy N in CANSLIM. All of them have New high recently. > > I'll let someone else to say something about "SLIM" for these stocks. > > We should sell GDYS,PSUN and TUES based on CANSLIM 7% (8%) stop loss > rule specified by Mr. O'neil on page 87 in his book. > > 2)MLHR is a office furniture manufacture; ASTSF is an integrated-circuit > testing firm in Taiwan; the rest is in > apparel industry. > > 3)The key common feature (IMHO) for all these companies is that they > have an overall upward trend (in up channel) and this trend seems > to be still holding. The estimated annual earning is also increasing. > > 4)for fundamental data, we can go to > http://www.dailystocks.com/ > to dig out. > > 5)For earning estimate, we can go to > http://www.ultra.zacks.com/cgi-bin/ShowFreeCompRep > to find out. > > 6)the 97 and 98 Fisical Year earning are estimation. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Brenda" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] After hours trading Date: 12 Apr 1997 20:34:29 -0500 I tried pulling up this site and got message that address was not complete. Anybody else have the same thing happen? James ---------- > From: derek b > To: canslim@mail.xmission.com > Subject: [CANSLIM] After hours trading > Date: Saturday, April 12, 1997 7:43 PM > > Looks like this trend will continue: > > -------------------------------- > "Increasingly, companies are making announcements after the close of > regular market hours. Before the next day's opening bell, pros may have > bought and sold thousands of shares in after-hours trading. Should > little investors care? > > ... a handful of companies offer ways for individuals to tap into > off-hours systems. > > Prominent among these firms is PT Discount Brokerage, a young > Chicago-based broker that sells individuals access to Instinet and > SelectNet - through which securities firms trade with each other - > before and after market hours." > > http://www.barrons.com/bie/articles/19970411/aftershocks.htm ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Michael A Langston Subject: [CANSLIM] o'neil letter (was re: Weekely update...) Date: 12 Apr 1997 21:42:38 -0400 > Just received letter from Wm On'Neil about the market, it's > condition, and what to do in a generally declining market (all > IBD subscribers should have gotten one). got mine -- my interpretation: IBD renewals are down, time to give a little pep talk to subscribers lest more desert the congregation after all, canslim has been a tough sell for close to a year now probably the same reason the swell volume tables at IBD's web site were deleted w/o even a warning recently -- make em buy the paper watch this biz long enuf, and it's mighty hard not to be cynical mike ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Michael A Langston Subject: goldfish's portfolio (was re: [CANSLIM] Weekely update...) Date: 12 Apr 1997 21:52:49 -0400 > If there is no objection, I'll post it every Saturday. > This is just an exercise. sure, if it turns you on, go for it goldfish -- i'm not particularly thrilled, but one more email to delete a week won't exactly kill me at least it's not some half-ass contest! btw, i though you quit this group -- glad you're sticking it out mike ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: GoldFish Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] After hours trading Date: 12 Apr 1997 22:47:35 -0700 Jame: You need to go to http://www.barrons.com/ Then you need to register (It is free so far). After that, you will be able to log on and surf. Good luck. Haw-Jye Shyu Brenda wrote: > > I tried pulling up this site and got message that address was not complete. > Anybody else have the same thing happen? > James > ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: GoldFish Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Weekely update on Jame's Stock Picks 4/4/97 Date: 12 Apr 1997 23:55:50 -0700 Tom, Jame: So far, It seems to me that Mr. Michael A Langston is the only one who hate it. We know market will fluctuate, an 3.8% drop in a portfolio is noting in present market condition. MRK, JNJ, INC, HWP, MO, CCI,CMB, LLY, BGEN, SEG... these big guys fell more than 15% (some even 20%, 30% down) from their 52 week high. To me, Jame's picks are not bad at all. Sincerely, Haw-Jye Shyu ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: musicant@autobahn.org (Dan Musicant) Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] After hours trading Date: 13 Apr 1997 04:25:23 GMT On Sat, 12 Apr 1997 20:34:29 -0500, you wrote: :I tried pulling up this site and got message that address was not = complete. :Anybody else have the same thing happen? :James Yes, I had the same problem. The message was that Netscape could not find www.barrons.com That's very weird, because I have the very same URL bookmarked, and have obviously gone there before -- that's how I bookmarked it in the first place. I also was not able to access Goldfish's www.dailystocks.com I have had similar problems in the past. The cause could be a server down. Dan :>=20 :> http://www.barrons.com/bie/articles/19970411/aftershocks.htm ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Brenda" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] After hours trading Date: 12 Apr 1997 23:49:00 -0500 Thanks Goldfish, The address you gave me for Barons worked. I have just about quit reading it because of a time factor. There are only so many hours in a day. Also, I get so flustered reading some of the material. Think Tom is not to fond of them either. They DO MOVE markets however. You all have a good week-end and just remember that "Bear markets", per WJO usually last about 8 months. Lake Livingston is out my back door and I've been meaning to get some good fishing in. james ---------- On Sat, 12 Apr 1997 20:34:29 -0500, you wrote: :I tried pulling up this site and got message that address was not complete. :Anybody else have the same thing happen? :James Yes, I had the same problem. The message was that Netscape could not find www.barrons.com That's very weird, because I have the very same URL bookmarked, and have obviously gone there before -- that's how I bookmarked it in the first place. I also was not able to access Goldfish's www.dailystocks.com I have had similar problems in the past. The cause could be a server down. Dan :> :> http://www.barrons.com/bie/articles/19970411/aftershocks.htm ---------- ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: pwahl@postoffice.worldnet.att.net Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] "m" in CANSLIM Date: 12 Apr 1997 22:04:46 -0800 > From: pwahl@postoffice.worldnet.att.net > > From: GoldFish > > > After Tom's analysis on COMS, I am really confused about the importance > > of furture earning. According to next year earning estimation, > > Intell is selling with project PE=12.6 and COMS is selling with project > > PE=12.40. I just hope that they will not go down further. It is hard to > > believe that growth stock can be on this kind of price level. > > Three Com is a good buy and will get back to higher > levels if those earnings estimates are accurate. If not, then it > could lay there for a while. I think there is some uncertainty > regarding a 3Com product due to an Intel price cut in a competing > product, plus probably general uncertainty about the USRX > acquisition. > Ugh. I am going to answer my own message, since on rereading this I think I said it could go up or down - maybe. Pretty useless. So here goes again, maybe a little better this time. I just read somewhere (BW, Barrons, Forbes, WSJ, etc.) that an analyst said he thought 3 Com was a good buy at these levels, and his earnings forecast for this year is $2.05, next year something like $2.80. The $2.05 gives us a p/e of 16, the $2.80 a p/e of 12 or so based on next years earnings and current price. In my more naive days as an investor (last year probably) I would have gotten excited over such a forecast and figured it was a very undervalued stock. However, I've seen enough totally worthless forecasts to be skeptical of all of them and to place most emphasis on what the price is doing. If price disagrees with the estimates, better to go along with price action. Anyway, I think what I wanted to say initially is that if those estimates are good, probably you can put a p/e of mid 20's on those earnings and look for price around 50 this year, and possibly 70 a year+ out. Possibly all the uncertainty around 3 Com is keeping price down until they prove via a good earning result that they are not having troubles. I think they are probably a low risk play here, where the biggest risk is dead money if they stumble, and best case are my numbers above. But its more of a gamble than your usual CANSLIM stock. You cannot really cut your losses at 8% because you aren't buying a breakout where the stock should go on a run. You have to expect price to bounce around the bottom for a while. A word or two on analysts and their forecasts: I think they tend to be fairly optimistic, I think in most cases they see things continuing as they are, so project earnings to continue on whatever the current pace is. Also, (someone suggested this to me) they see other analysts forecasts and tend to lump theirs in the middle of the pack, their idea being that if they are wrong, everyone else was too, so they can't get in trouble with the boss. As an example of what I am talking about above, I think it would be interesting to look at some forecasts for the semiconductor industry when they were flying high in 1995. I think that when Micron Technology was at around 80-90 in '95, the earnings forecasts for 1996 were something like $14 per share. Of course 1996 turned out to be the year the bottom fell out of the chip market. Hope this is more useful than my last stab at this one. Patrick Wahl ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] After hours trading Date: 13 Apr 1997 08:20:50 -0400 I would disagree with Barron's claim of an increase in after mkt announcements. I have been reviewing headlines for many years, and if anything I would say it is the reverse. There are some companies that historically ALWAYS report after the close just as there are those that ALWAYS report in the morning before the opening. I certainly have seen other cos that will report depending on whether it is good or bad news (good news in the morning or during the day, bad as late as possible). As to access to aftermkt trading, any decent brokerage house has access and should have little problem in handling your order. Understand tho, after market trading is for the serious trader, the desperate, and the high risk taker. I have seen stocks spike up 7 or 8 pts in aftermkt, then open the next day down from the previous day's regular mkt close. Typical trades in aftermkt are in the 20,000 share range. Spreads are almost always enlarged. Only the Pacific is available in some cases, and a stock that trades with an eighth spread on NYSE will have a 1 to 2 pt spread in aftermkt on the Pacific. You can sometimes go in between but no guarantee of execution. tom w ---------- > From: derek b > To: canslim@mail.xmission.com > Subject: [CANSLIM] After hours trading > Date: Saturday, April 12, 1997 8:43 PM > > Looks like this trend will continue: > > -------------------------------- > "Increasingly, companies are making announcements after the close of > regular market hours. Before the next day's opening bell, pros may have > bought and sold thousands of shares in after-hours trading. Should > little investors care? > > ... a handful of companies offer ways for individuals to tap into > off-hours systems. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] "m" in CANSLIM Date: 13 Apr 1997 08:30:28 -0400 I definitely agree there is a "herd mentality" among analysts. There is also the continuing challenge to be a "Garzarelli", to spot that overlooked stock that will have explosive earnings and nobody noticed or to spot the high flyer with inflated earnings or obsolete inventory or product about to fall out of favor, and be the first to slash earnings, get boo'd temporarily, then proven right later. Overall, tho, I believe the greatest motivation is to look correct, so I don't think they are always that optimistic in their projections. I committed this same mistake when I estimated core PPI. My reviews and instinct told me it would be higher than the 0.2 I reported, but since all these professional analysts were calling for unchanged, then changed to up 0.1 only the day before, I stayed conservative and didn't raise my estimate according to what I really thought would happen. You tend to be remembered far more for when you are wrong than when you are right. tom w ---------- > From: pwahl@postoffice.worldnet.att.net > To: canslim@mail.xmission.com > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] "m" in CANSLIM > Date: Sunday, April 13, 1997 2:04 AM > > > From: pwahl@postoffice.worldnet.att.net > > > > From: GoldFish > > > A word or two on analysts and their forecasts: I think they tend to > be fairly optimistic, I think in most cases they see things > continuing as they are, so project earnings to continue on > whatever the current pace is. Also, (someone suggested this to me) > they see other analysts forecasts and tend to lump theirs in the > middle of the pack, their idea being that if they are wrong, everyone > else was too, so they can't get in trouble with the boss. > ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Fw: [CANSLIM] The market and earnings Date: 13 Apr 1997 08:32:36 -0400 Didn't see this one come back, sorry if it is a dup for you. tom w ---------- > From: Tom Worley > To: canslim@mail.xmission.com > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] The market and earnings > Date: Saturday, April 12, 1997 9:45 AM > > As to the eagle eyes, I was doing better before the tri-focals > broke, gotta find the time to see the eye dr and get a new Rx. > I've got space on my monitor for about 50 or so symbols (actually I > recently upgraded everyone's software and now have the capacity for > about 800, but haven't had the time to read the manual and learn > how to use it!). I keep a nr of symbols up there (long bond, gold, > bond futures, s&p100 and 500, dow30, nasdaq, russell 200, chips > index, internet index, etc) plus I keep about 25 tech stocks up > there, all as guages on the mkt (since I consider techs as the > single most important leadership group). Of course I keep my > current portfolio up there as well as any I am "watching", often > ones mentioned here. During the earnings cycle, I also stick up > ones that reported after the close with huge neg or pos reports to > see how they act the next day. If I ever get the new software > implemented, then I plan to go to work a little earlier and do the > same for the ones that reported in the morning before the open. > I never predicted a gap up, actually I expected all to open flat or > gap down, as that has been the pattern. But if I had looked at the > chart on DS, I probably would have singled it out as the exception. > I doubt I would have ever guessed on KEA gapping up, chart too > sloppy. Of course, on DS you would have had to position yourself > the prior day or sooner, if you waited for the earnings report it > was already too late and I wouldn't have chased it in this mkt. > What do we do now? Choices are stay in cash, use a different style > of investing, work even harder at studying charts and finding the > few legitimate CANSLIM candidates out there (there are some, but > next to none in the tech groups, despite its spread MFAC moved up > and hit a new high yesterday, and MLHR also held up well on light > vol for two examples that have been mentioned here). Some tech > stocks that also held up, but haven't looked at their chart > recently, include GATE, HWP, IBM, MRVC. ALTR staged a reversal it > appears, and BARR was up for the day. > I meant to print off the stocks that hit new highs (there weren't > many) and study their charts this weekend. > For me, I will play the lottery tonight and hope I can pick good > nrs there. > > tom w > ---------- > > From: GoldFish > > To: canslim@mail.xmission.com > > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] The market and earnings > > Date: Saturday, April 12, 1997 12:45 AM > > > > Tom Worley wrote: > > > > > Tom: > > I was watching them. I am very impreessive with your eagle eyes. > > Questions: > > 1) What on earth that you are able to spot them? > > 2) How can you predict them to gap up? - I didn't > > 3) All of them have strong earning, but only two of them jump up, > why? > > If earning is that important, then they should all jump up in > > price right? > > > ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Fw: [CANSLIM] What Works On Wall Street Date: 13 Apr 1997 08:33:13 -0400 Another one I didn't see returned. tom w ---------- > From: Tom Worley > To: canslim@mail.xmission.com > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] What Works On Wall Street > Date: Saturday, April 12, 1997 9:55 AM > > Not sure how he backtested CANSLIM, but here are the figures from > an old NSMI book (NSMI was O'Neill's institutional recommendations > picks, they came out live throughout the week by fax). > > The first figure is the NSMI performance, the second is the S&P500, > all figures are in percent, plus is assumed unless indicated as > neg. > 1987 .6/.05 > 1988 22.45/12.4 > 1989 53.12/27.26 > 1990 -3.51/-6.98 > 1991 92.95/23.67 > 1992 27.73/7.2 > 1993 29.02/7.04 > 1994 12.1/-1.55 > > He did have some down years, but as has been said before, CANSLIM > works best in a mkt trending up. The key is to limit the losses, > then make a lot of money when the mkt favors you. > > tom w > ---------- > > From: PPNewell@aol.com > > To: canslim@mail.xmission.com > > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] What Works On Wall Street > > Date: Friday, April 11, 1997 10:03 PM > > > > I read some info from his book something like "Invest like the > masters" > > anyhow he backed tested CANSLIM using non subjective criteria > and came up > > with a 30% annual return from 85-92, not exactly the best times > due to 2 > > downdrafts. No, year ever had a loss. > > > > Peter Newell ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Weekely update on Jame's Stock Picks 4/4/97 Date: 13 Apr 1997 08:46:55 -0400 Appreciate the info, and the feel for the mkt overall. I snipped two paragraphs below - if I read the first one correctly, it appears you put at least as much weigh on volatility over the past yr as on other, more traditional CANSLIM criteria. How do you grade a stock that had little volatility until Feb or Mar, then reacted with the market? Does that wipe out a lack of volatility for the prior ten months? When I was at a previous firm, we were receiving the NSMI service, altho not the top shelf version with weekly "big books". Seems we were paying around $20-30/year, so this may be the same. I liked it, esp since it was an institutional service mostly for funds and pension fund mgrs and the like. Since they would buy a qtr mil shares or so if they liked something, where we as an office might only buy 10 to 20 thou, we could react faster to a fax'd "pick" and often be positioned just ahead of a major buy by a fund. It's always nice to open a new position, and finish the day up a pt or so with the stock looking strong and suggesting a followthru the next day. helps you sleep better than night. tom w ---------- > From: Brenda > To: canslim@mail.xmission.com > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Weekely update on Jame's Stock Picks 4/4/97 > Date: Saturday, April 12, 1997 9:10 PM > > I look at the stock and imagine being an 85 year old who owns only this ONE > stock and lives, eats, pays the rent, etc. on what this stock has done and > does in the future. The higher grade I give it the less the stock > volatility. A 99 grade states absolutely NO 5% dip in a year.My grading > > Has anybody ever subscribed to the O'Neil wire service (about $20,000 a > year) where he buys and sells stocks. I've been told that the biggest > offender and mis-user of the CANSLIM system........... Has anybody actually > tracked that service? ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] WON on AOL Date: 13 Apr 1997 09:02:02 -0400 Hope you will post a summary? tom w ---------- > From: derek b > To: canslim@mail.xmission.com > Subject: [CANSLIM] WON on AOL > Date: Saturday, April 12, 1997 8:30 PM > > found on another list: > ---------------------- > William O'Neil, founder of Investors Business Daily will be appearing > live on American Online on Monday 4/14/97 at 7 pm PST/10pm EST. > Keyword: Personal Finance Live. > > It will be interesting to see what the granddaddy of momentum investing > has to say about the current market. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Weekely update on Jame's Stock Picks 4/4/97 Date: 13 Apr 1997 08:59:58 -0400 Unless I missed something, I don't think Mike hates either James' picks or your weekly review, just that a 3.8% loss for the week is nothing to get excited about. James does this for a living, which means he has more time than I to study the mkt and many stocks. He has his own system of selection, but it is CANSLIM based even if not pure CANSLIM, therefore I will look at his picks and judge for myself and welcome them being posted. Long as everyone understands they each carry the responsibility to do their own homework and make their own decisions, then keep on posting. tom w ---------- > From: GoldFish > To: canslim@mail.xmission.com > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Weekely update on Jame's Stock Picks 4/4/97 > Date: Sunday, April 13, 1997 2:55 AM > > Tom, Jame: > > So far, It seems to me that Mr. Michael A Langston is the > only one who hate it. > > We know market will fluctuate, an 3.8% drop in a portfolio is > noting in present market condition. MRK, JNJ, INC, HWP, MO, CCI,CMB, ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: [CANSLIM] "food" for thought Date: 13 Apr 1997 09:29:22 -0400 In a review I did this weekend of industry group performance last week, no major groups were up that I found, and only two subgroups were up for the week: tobacco and fishing. Maybe its time for some quality leisure pursuits? tom w Any opinions are strictly my own and not that of my employer. My comments are based on a variety of sources and are intended strictly to assist and inform. In no way am I suggesting a buy, sell, or hold decision based on my comments or observations. I always urge an investor to do his or her own homework, and be sure the risk of the market can be tolerated and any losses accepted gracefully. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Jimmy Sorrells Subject: Re: [CANSLIM]Returning to a discussion of CANSLIM Date: 13 Apr 1997 11:08:02 -0500 > >How about it experienced CANSLIM folks. What do you think is most important > >and least important? When you read Investors' Business Daily what do you look > >for first? Here is my CANSLIM recipe: 1. Take the daily copy of IBD and look at the "Intelligent Tables", write down all of the stocks that are boldfaced. This takes care of C,A,S. To be boldfaced the stock must have a EPS rank>80 (CA) and a RS>80 (S) (this means that you are looking at a stock that is in the top 20% of both EPS and Relative Strength). 2. Rank the stocks first by %Change in Volume, then by how close they are to their 52-week high (I want %Change in Volume>100, and within $1 of high). This takes care of N for me (New interest in the stock, for whatever reason, and movement to new highs). 3. Get your favorite charting program and look at charts of all the stocks that made it through the screen. Are they coming out of a good solid base? Is there overhead resistance close by? Is the chart good and tight with a strong b/o, or is it wide and choppy (lots of movement up and down, day to day)? Look for good tight bases with strong increased volume and sharp breakouts (good examples to look at from last year are ZOLT, TEAM, INVX, PMRY, WTEC). 4. After you have reviewed them all and have found a set that really look good, look for news on those stocks and find out how much Institutional ownership (I) they have. Again this is listed in the IBD. A little is good, a lot is not so good. Look for 2%-20%. 5. Understand the overall direction of the market (M). You only want to purchase if the overall market trend is up. A very simple way to monitor the direction of the market is to always review the Nasdaq, S&P, and DJIA charts in the IBD. If the market is trending down (as it is now) all CANSLIM bets are off. 6. Look at other stocks in the same industry group. Are the other stocks looking good too? If not beware. Try to stay with the best stocks within a group. In order of importance I rank the CANSLIM elements this way: 1. CA (companies with good earnings appeal to a lot of investors) 2. N (volume increase means new interest in a stock, for whatever reason) 3. Look at the price/volume chart, stick with stocks breaking out of tight bases. 4. S (stay with strong stocks, it means that they are liked by investors) 5. M (know the overall market, do not fight the trend when the market is declining) 6. IL (go for low/moderate institutional ownership, try to stay with leaders) Hope this helps. Jimmy ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "James B. Andrews" Subject: [CANSLIM] Message from O'Neil Date: 13 Apr 1997 09:38:58 -0700 I have been a subscriber to the IBD for years and yesterday, in the snail mail, I received a form letter, two pages, sent to "Dear Subscriber" suggesting we all be careful at this time... He mentioned rereading chapters 9,10 and especially 7 in his book.. He also mentioned that in June he would be "sending all subscribers a complimentary forty five minute videotape designed to help you maximize your future success with IBD". I thought that the letter and upcoming video was a nice gesture on his part... Jim Andrews - Phoenix ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: jbeckham@vcn.com Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] WON on AOL Date: 12 Apr 1997 22:56:24 -0600 (MDT) >William O'Neil, founder of Investors Business Daily will be appearing >live on American Online on Monday 4/14/97 at 7 pm PST/10pm EST. >Keyword: Personal Finance Live. Unfortunately I don't subscribe to AOL. Keep us informed! Jeff ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Peter Christiansen Subject: [CANSLIM] Intro: Peter Christiansen Date: 14 Apr 1997 13:07:38 GMT+7 Just a quick note of introduction... My name is Peter Christiansen, and I currently live in Bangkok Thailand. I have been trading with CANSLIM methods for the last 7 years. I attended one of William O'Neil's investment workshops several years ago. CANSLIM has served me well, and I look forward to exchanging ideas with the participants of this group. Peter Christiansen Bangkok, Thailand Connected with OS/2 Warp 3.0 & The Post Road Mailer _____________________________________________________________________________________ Since time immemorial and pre-industrial, 'greed' has been the accusation hurled at the rich by the concrete-bound illiterates who were unable to conceive of the source of wealth or of the motivation of those who produce it. -- Ayn Rand ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Craig Griffin Subject: [CANSLIM] Briefing.com Market Review Date: 14 Apr 1997 11:27:20 -0400 (EDT) Here are some interesting market review thoughts re: Friday's close and today's open quoted from Briefing.com at -- http://www.briefing.com/intro/istocks.htm BEGIN QUOTE form BRIEFING.COM --->>>>>> 09:40 ET Dow -4, Nasdaq +2, S&P -0.40: Stocks open near flat...not impressive in that there is virtually no bounce after the severe drop Friday...Novellus -15 5/8 but the Nasdaq does manage a minor early gain...sentiment remains very nervous ahead of CPI tomorrow morning and a slew of earnings reports this week. 09:15 ET: Look for a flat to down open...bonds are unchanged and the S&P futures up a point, but they closed below equilibrium with the cash on Friday, so that doesn't necessarily translate into strength for the cash market...more concerning is that Novellus is indicated to open close to -10 after earnings and a warning that a patent infringement suit could materially affect earnings...Compaq was also downgraded, but Intel earnings estimates were raised by Lehman...see Short Stories or details on individual stocks. Close Friday: Dow -148.36 at 6391.69, Nasdaq -28.87 at 1206.90, S&P -20.65 at 737.65:Today settled it, last week's rally was nothing more than a corrective advance... Stocks took a beating across the board in what was the single worst session of the year... It was not so much the magnitude of the decline as it was the scope... Declining issues swamped advancers by better than a 6 to 1 margin (2329 to 375) and down volume crushed up volume by better than 9 to 1 (384 mln to 41 mln)... Historically, ratios of this ilk portend further weakness... Also alarming was the continued weakness in the DJUA... Briefing subscribers know that we were among the first to warn of the troubling divergence between the DJUA and the DJIA, as the former index peaked in mid-January while the latter index kept climbing through early March... The steady decline in the DJUA suggested that rates were headed higher and that the DJIA was in for a fall... Sure enough, rates rose and stocks fell... And it looks like it's going to get worse before it gets better, as the market leading DJUA just broke below its bull trendline... Interest sensitive index posied for test of the 204-202 range... If the DJIA were to match this move, we would be looking at a test of the 5100 area... While we aren't ready to forecast such a decline, we are sticking by our call for a test of 6200... A break of this pivotal level would earmark an intermediate-term move to the 5850 range... More bad news: there is no leadership as financial, oil and technology stocks all breaking down... Though techs have already suffered steeper declines than the broader market, and as such should fare better during the next leg lower, the inability of the sector to rebound on good earnings news suggest that additional declines are in order... But the big losers are likely to be the consumer giants which continue to trade at excessive valuation levels... General Electric, Coca-Cola, Procter & Gamble and Clorox are among stocks likely to led the blue chips lower... Lest we forget, the trigger to today's sell-off was the stronger than expected jump in the PPI core rate (+0.4%)... The retail sales figures also spooked the market... Traders took the data as a sign that the Fed would have to raise rates again at the May meeting... Bonds reacted by falling nearly a point, with the long-bond yield climbing back to 7.18%... As long as rates continue to climb, and our economists think the risk is that rates will move much higher than the street expects, stocks are likely to remain under pressure as valuation measures must be adjusted lower... Today's closing stats show NYSE volume of 444 mln shares, with 542 mln shares changing hands on the Nasdaq... DJUA fell 3.84, DJTA tumbled 43.46... The SOX index lost 6.50, as chip stocks pulled lower by Intel... The closing tick was a minus 628. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Brenda" Subject: [CANSLIM] 30 minutes left in the day Date: 14 Apr 1997 14:34:40 -0500 Just looked at some of the stocks I'm following. Whoever wanted that roller coaster ride with ASMLF is now getting to the top of the ride from down in the valley this morning, it's up 5 with 30 minutes to go. Other stocks up pretty good at this moment are ASTSF even if some of you don't care for it. Glad I own it. QNTM, who knows about this one. AND why is FFD up over 10% today. Somebody on this list owned up to manipulating this one. More manipulating going on? Oh well, hope you had a good day. Don't know if this up will hold but my "timing indicator" said either today or tomorrow would be a GOOD up day. James ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Michael A Langston Subject: re: [CANSLIM] Briefing.com Market Review Date: 14 Apr 1997 15:52:44 -0400 > But the big losers are likely to be the consumer giants which > continue to trade at excessive valuation levels... General Electric, > Coca-Cola, Procter & Gamble and Clorox are among stocks likely to > led the blue chips lower... i dunno, the demise of KO (the stock, not the co) has been predicted for many, many moons -- despite it's apparent "excessive valuation," somebody sure keeps buying it (the stock, not the product) maybe it's the "pepsi generation" -- hmmm, i wonder how many here remember that ad campaign? -- besides yours truly that is -- and of course tom :) mike ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Intro: Peter Christiansen Date: 14 Apr 1997 20:47:04 -0400 Welcome to the group, Peter. How about your thoughts on this market? Do you see any picks out there? What's your business or investing background? Any specialty areas you may be able to help us with? tom w ---------- > From: Peter Christiansen > To: CANSLIM > Subject: [CANSLIM] Intro: Peter Christiansen > Date: Monday, April 14, 1997 9:07 AM > > Just a quick note of introduction... My name is Peter Christiansen, and I currently live > in Bangkok Thailand. I have been trading with CANSLIM methods for the last 7 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: [CANSLIM] The Intel Story Date: 14 Apr 1997 21:46:06 -0400 Well, once upon a time in a sunny land called America there was a chip maker. No, not potato chips or cow chips, but rather computer chips. And this company grew big and strong until it was dominant in its industry. And while many tried to copy it, by then it was making so much money that it could spend faster than the drug dealers on research and development, thus staying at least one step ahead of the competition. For a while the demand for its chips was so strong that it couldn't expand capacity fast enough to keep up, and the buyers started buying elsewhere to keep up their production. But then it launched the Pentium, and it was celebrated as "hot" and demand increased until capacity was again stretched. Of course, its imitators rushed to produce their own version of "pentium", but it wasn't the same. Now, we come upon one fateful Monday morning, and all are gathered around waiting anxiously for "earnings". And one ardent admirer, Lehman by name, who had been somewhat doubtful about "earnings", thinking this chip maker could only do $2.00 a share and guessing he was going to look silly after listening to all the whispers, decided to do something most would never dare: he RAISED estimates the day "earnings" were to be revealed! Of course, this might mean he would look even more foolish on Tuesday, but that was another day and he would worry about that tomorrow. And since the consensus of all the other admirers was for only $2.07, raising his guess to $2.08 still kept him in their company, but a step ahead. Of course, there was that one guy spouting off about $2.23 a share, but what does he know? And so, throughout the day, excessive euphoria reigned throughout the land and the chip maker,despite a rainy and ugly day, raced ahead 3 and a quarter, dragging the rest of the market with it, cuz it was a LEADER! Finally, the big bell tolled, and brief calm settled in around the campfire as all anxiously crossed their fingers and waited for the "earnings". Finally, THERE IT WAS! $2.20 A SHARE! WE DID IT, they all exclaimed. Then they started reading the rest of the story, altho flash memory sales were up, prices were down and total dollars was flat compared to Q4. Likewise, motherboards, controllers and microprocessor sales were flat compared to Q4. Where is the growth we have been expecting, they all cried in dismay? In panic, they all rushed to the sell window to unload their euphoric holdings. When they were done, altho having finished at 130.5 on Friday, their panic punished the stock that didn't give them growth, and pummelled it all the way down to 129 and 7/8. Take that, they said, that's what you get for getting our hopes up, after all you only reported $2.20 a share compared to our official group estimate of $2.07 and results for the same quarter a year ago of $1.02. Forget the whispers, we didn't believe them anyway! You barely doubled in a year, they screamed! You only made TWO BILLION DOLLARS THIS QUARTER! What good are you? What kind of leader do you call yourself, getting our hopes up like this? Of course, in their swift move from euphoria to doom and gloom, what they missed in the news was that demand for the Pentium MMX is exceeding capacity, and the Pentium II will be released in May. Anybody want to bet on the share price going down from here compared to three months from now? What's that about "N" in CANSLIM? Thought I'd try a new style for market comments, gotta find humor where we can. Hope some of you enjoyed it. Good lesson on what "whispers" can do for a stock, as well as the hazards of trading on them, much less on "after market" trading risks. Will be interesting to see tomorrow's results. tom w Any opinions are strictly my own and not that of my employer. My comments are based on a variety of sources and are intended strictly to assist and inform. In no way am I suggesting a buy, sell, or hold decision based on my comments or observations. I always urge an investor to do his or her own homework, and be sure the risk of the market can be tolerated and any losses accepted gracefully. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: [CANSLIM] Economic Calendar, week of 4/14/97 Date: 14 Apr 1997 22:27:19 -0400 OK, am I am prone to do, will again put my head on the chopping block and make a forecast: Reports due this week: Tuesday CPI - consensus is for up 0.2 overall and 0.3 core, I expect 0.1 overall and 0.3 core. Business Inventories - consensus is 0.3 overall, I am guessing 0.1 or 0.2 max (this is bad if I am right, increased demand with inventories at their lowest in 3.5 years creates a favorable environment for passing on price hikes, as well as increased wage costs due overtime, extra shifts, sudden acceleration in capacity requirements, etc) Wednesday Housing Starts - 1.46 mil consensus, I think over 1.56 mil Industrial Production - consensus 0.5, I think 0.4 Thursday Trade Balance - $10.6bil consensus, my pick is for over $12 bil Initial Jobless Claims - 315K expected, probably in the ballpark, maybe a little high Money Supply, M2 - expected is $1.0 bil, was never any good at this one so won't even hazard a guess, it's too volatile Market wise, I am predicting that the market will open, go either up or down, and will close (watch, just to humble me it will probably close unchanged one day, I'm not paranoid, I'm an ex-broker!). I am expecting at least 400 million shares to change hands on both of the major exchanges each day, and I expect there to be four more trading days this week. Alright, weak humor, I know, but these forecasts really exhaust me. It's tiring to have an ax hanging over your head! OK, one more forecast, I expect the mkt to be up for the week, but not more than 1 percent. And I expect NASDAQ to fare better than NYSE, with the Russell 2000 trailing both (based on my read on the tech groups in particular). I consider the mkt to be slightly oversold to neutral, so a good place for the value players as well as for shorts to start covering. tom w Any opinions are strictly my own and not that of my employer. My comments are based on a variety of sources and are intended strictly to assist and inform. In no way am I suggesting a buy, sell, or hold decision based on my comments or observations. I always urge an investor to do his or her own homework, and be sure the risk of the market can be tolerated and any losses accepted gracefully. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: [CANSLIM] Economic Calendar (correction) Date: 14 Apr 1997 22:31:05 -0400 Just reread my forecasts, excuse the typo, I am expecting a CPI of 0.1 overall, and 0.4 core, not 0.3. Just want to be on the record. Of course, if I am right, both the bond and stock mkts should tank, but then what has been logical or predictable lately? tom w Any opinions are strictly my own and not that of my employer. My comments are based on a variety of sources and are intended strictly to assist and inform. In no way am I suggesting a buy, sell, or hold decision based on my comments or observations. I always urge an investor to do his or her own homework, and be sure the risk of the market can be tolerated and any losses accepted gracefully. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: derek b Subject: [CANSLIM] WON AOL summary Date: 14 Apr 1997 23:12:57 -0400 WON's AOL online chat, 4/14 10pm ET. His personal charisma doesn't come through in this medium. Executive summary: get out and stay out of this market until an uptrend is confirmed. Use time out of the market to study opportunities for next bull leg (perhaps several months away). Grab this - only up next 24 hours! http://www.geocities.com/WallStreet/7422/WON_41497.txt Derek ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Michael A Langston Subject: re: [CANSLIM] WON AOL summary Date: 14 Apr 1997 23:38:25 -0400 > Executive summary: get out and stay out of this market until an > uptrend is confirmed. Use time out of the market to study many thanks for the post derek -- FWLIW, i became convinced that the risk-to-reward ratio for HGS became unfavorable a few months ago, and moved much of my trading cash out of my margin account to good old t-bills talk about boring -- laddering short term paper from the fed, now that is really booooooooring! also, 5.5% or so from uncle sugar vs 3% from brown & co really ain't much better'n burying your money in the ground after taxes but hey, patience is supposed to be a virtue, and i need all the easy virtues i can find :) -- i sorta figured that my opting for t-bills would be a great contrary indicator too, but so far no soap mike ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Craig Griffin Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] WON AOL summary Date: 14 Apr 1997 23:58:12 -0400 (EDT) Derek, Many thanks for putting the WON chat up. I thought it was great! The charisma does not come through, but the clear headed thinking sure does. I am going to look back and try to identify the "13 days of volume distribution" he refers to, just so I will identify it next time. Thanks again! Best regards, Craig ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Scott Violet Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] The Intel Story Date: 14 Apr 1997 09:40:53 -0700 I loved it:) -Scott Violet (scott@fraggle.com) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] WON AOL summary Date: 15 Apr 1997 01:03:41 -0400 Thanks Derek, appreciate hearing "first hand" from the great guru. tom w ---------- > From: derek b > To: canslim@mail.xmission.com > Subject: [CANSLIM] WON AOL summary > Date: Monday, April 14, 1997 11:12 PM > > WON's AOL online chat, 4/14 10pm ET. > > His personal charisma doesn't come through in this medium. > > Executive summary: get out and stay out of this market until an uptrend > is confirmed. Use time out of the market to study opportunities for > next bull leg (perhaps several months away). > > Grab this - only up next 24 hours! > http://www.geocities.com/WallStreet/7422/WON_41497.txt > > Derek ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Louis H. Gipson, RN" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] The Intel Story Date: 14 Apr 1997 22:33:26 -0700 Tom Worley wrote: > > Well, once upon a time in a sunny land called America there was a > chip maker. No, not potato chips or cow chips, but rather computer > chips.<<< Tom, Your story was great. Seems like a little sleep can get the old creative juices flowing. I too am watching the show from the side lines, albeit with a small bet of 15 shares for spice. Definately not CANSLIM'est but more for fun. Lou ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Peter Christiansen Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Intro: Peter Christiansen Date: 15 Apr 1997 14:19:58 GMT+7 ** Reply to note from "Tom Worley" Mon, 14 Apr 1997 20:47:04 -0400 > Welcome to the group, Peter. How about your thoughts on this > market? Do you see any picks out there? What's your business or > investing background? Any specialty areas you may be able to help > us with? Thank you Tom. I have been in cash (except for a small position in Oxford Industries OXM) since the end of March. After observing heavy distribution taking place in the S&P 500 from mid February to mid March, I decided it was time to step aside. Seeing the S&P break convincingly below its 150 day wma reinforces my feeling that the trend is now down. I now have two short positions working. I have never had much luck nailing down profits on the short side, but I can't resist trying. I am a commercial photographer by profession, but have put that on hold and am supporting myself through my trading. I have no formal investment background. Just lots of reading, trial and error, and I think I mentioned that I attended Bill O'Neil's all day investment workshop. That workshop was extremely valuable to me. I still listen to the tapes from it. Since I live overseas, I can't get IBD on a timely basis, so I am stuck with reading the online version. Unfortunately they have reduced the content in it, and it isn't so valuable any more. I also use Quotes Plus, and have set up some scans to highlight high RS stocks that are in bases. I then use Daily Graphs to do further study of potential buys. I'm happy to have stumbled across this discussion group. From what I have seen, it looks like there is an interesting exchange of ideas here. Are you a broker? Cheers, Peter Christiansen Bangkok, Thailand Connected with OS/2 Warp 3.0 & The Post Road Mailer _____________________________________________________________________________________ Happiness is that state of consciousness which proceeds from the achievement of one's values. -- Ayn Rand, Atlas Shrugged ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Intro: Peter Christiansen Date: 15 Apr 1997 06:56:39 -0400 Thanks for the info, Peter. To support yourself from your trading, you are obviously doing something right. I once considered becoming a professional photographer, but ended up going into the military (US Coast Guard) where I became something of a self taught programmer and helped nudge the Guard into a technological world. I will be 50 this year, and have been in the mkt since I was ten. I have always had a bent for analysis and projection, and continue doing that now. I worked as a broker for seven years before burning out due the nature of the business and my wife's health, then accepted a job with the same broker dealer running the "back office" which I continue to do. Recently I also took on the job of Compliance Officer and am studying for the Registered Options Principal license. I am a licensed broker, but have no clients except myself. I discovered WON and CANSLIM nearly seven years ago, and the more I read, the more sense it made. When I changed firms back then, I chose a firm that was subscribing to his service so I could learn more and have better access to his data and picks. I tend to "fall in love" with fundamentals, so CANSLIM really helps balance that out. There are about 160 members in the group, from what I know I am the only broker. tom w ---------- > From: Peter Christiansen > To: canslim@mail.xmission.com > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Intro: Peter Christiansen > Date: Tuesday, April 15, 1997 10:19 AM > > convincingly below its 150 day wma reinforces my feeling that the trend is now down. > I now have two short positions working. I have never had much luck nailing down > profits on the short side, but I can't resist trying. > > I am a commercial photographer by profession, but have put that on hold and am > supporting myself through my trading. I have no formal investment background. > potential buys. I'm happy to have stumbled across this discussion group. From what I > have seen, it looks like there is an interesting exchange of ideas here. Are you a > broker? > ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: [CANSLIM] Breakout alert - INVX Date: 15 Apr 1997 07:49:02 -0400 Innovex reported earnings Monday, two days early. Did 66 cents compared to estimate of 46 cents and 21 cents year prior. Possible double bottom based breakout, some overhead resistance from Jan highs, CANSLIM nr good: RS 99, EPS 99, A/D B, U/D 1.3, timeliness B, funds only 9%. Tight base altho well above 50dma. tom w Any opinions are strictly my own and not that of my employer. My comments are based on a variety of sources and are intended strictly to assist and inform. In no way am I suggesting a buy, sell, or hold decision based on my comments or observations. I always urge an investor to do his or her own homework, and be sure the risk of the market can be tolerated and any losses accepted gracefully. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Hemant Rotithor Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Weekely update on Jame's Stock Picks 4/4/97 Date: 15 Apr 1997 15:21:07 -0400 GoldFish wrote: > > We should sell GDYS,PSUN and TUES based on CANSLIM 7% (8%) stop loss > rule specified by Mr. O'neil on page 87 in his book. > Goldfish It is good to keep track of the stock suggestions since much can evident from the performance so I appreciate your effort. I would suggest you to apply CANSLIM selling rules to the set of stocks, that is sell them on a 8% drop and keep accumulating the total gain/loss (not sure if My Yahoo can do it easily) and show it separately. This will be useful if our goal is to understand how Brenda's selections work when CANSLIM sell rule is applied (since he/she has put a lot of effort in selectiong/suggesting stocks), if we want to understand how Brenda's selections work under Brenda's sell rules then we need to get their sell rules. Otherwise, the assumption is is that the stocks have been bought and one is holding forever without a sell strategy (without a sale rule we could not even call it a long term investment). What do you think? -- Disclaimer: Opinions expressed in this document are those of the author. Digital Equipment Corp., 110 Spit Brook Rd, ZKO2-3/N30, Nashua, NH 03062 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: PPNewell@aol.com Subject: [CANSLIM] CANSLIM backtest in "Invest with the Best" by James O'Schaunussy Date: 15 Apr 1997 15:50:50 -0400 (EDT) I posted this a while back with the wrong book. The backtest was in the above from 1994. In "What works on Wallstreet", he doesn't mention by name or give CANSLIM as much credit. Anyhow for 1986-1992 the returns averaged 30% with no down years and this includes 1987 with +9.x% and positive return in 1991 also. Anyhow he used the Value Line database with the following parms, note these may not be exact but are close this is worth reading if you can find it, I saw it at Barnes&Noble. 5yr EPS > 20 1yr EPS > 30 %from high 85 26wk change >32 shares outstnd < 25 Institutional < 60% This returned 7 stocks from the time period he is demonstrating and then he evaluates them very positively. Also, the back test was without any chart analysis which may or may not have helped. Peter Newell ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Brenda" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Weekely update on Jame's Stock Picks 4/4/97 Date: 15 Apr 1997 14:57:39 -0500 We use a 15% trailing stop loss. If the stock goes up we raise our selling price but we start out with a sell price 15% below what we paid for it. To use a 7,8 or 12% sell point in this market is LUDICROUS. I recommend you go open a 4 1/4 percent savings account or put your money in a SOCK before attempting to do that. I read Mr. O'Neils comments last night and if he intends on sticking to ANYTHING resembling a 10% (much less 6 or 7 as he mentioned) stop loss then I sincerely DO RECOMMEND that he cash out, get out and stay out as he suggested. To even BEGIN to think of using a 6 or 7% stop loss in this market......... got to get control back...... (That just rates way up there REAL HIGH on the not so bright things that I have EVER heard. Somebody doing that in this market is living in fantasy land, not the real world. Of course, right now, I recommend to anybody, if they are NOT A SEASONED investor with LOTS OF EXPERIENCE that the place for them and their money is the sideline. By the way, ask Tom if I called today's advance!!!!!!!!! James Great entry point on MLHR unless you think it is headed for the tank. Wish I had sold it and bought it back, but that hindsight is so, so, so good! James ---------- > From: Hemant Rotithor > To: canslim@mail.xmission.com > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Weekely update on Jame's Stock Picks 4/4/97 > Date: Tuesday, April 15, 1997 2:21 PM > > GoldFish wrote: > > > > > We should sell GDYS,PSUN and TUES based on CANSLIM 7% (8%) stop loss > > rule specified by Mr. O'neil on page 87 in his book. > > > > Goldfish > > It is good to keep track of the stock suggestions since much can evident > from the performance so I appreciate your effort. > I would suggest you to apply CANSLIM selling rules to the set of stocks, > that is sell them on a 8% drop and keep accumulating the total gain/loss > (not sure if My Yahoo can do it easily) and show it separately. > This will be useful if our goal is to understand how Brenda's selections > work when CANSLIM sell rule is applied (since he/she has put a lot of > effort in selectiong/suggesting stocks), if we want to understand how > Brenda's selections work under Brenda's sell rules then we need to get > their sell rules. > Otherwise, the assumption is is that the stocks have been bought and one > is holding forever without a sell strategy (without a sale rule we could > not even call it a long term investment). > What do you think? > -- > Disclaimer: Opinions expressed in this document are those of the author. > Digital Equipment Corp., 110 Spit Brook Rd, ZKO2-3/N30, Nashua, NH 03062 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: James Adams Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] Breakout alert - INVX Date: 15 Apr 1997 16:39:13 -0500 ------ =_NextPart_000_01BC49BB.91459620 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="us-ascii" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable [JA] Tom wrote:=20 Innovex reported earnings Monday, two days early. Did 66 cents compared to estimate of 46 cents and 21 cents year prior. Possible double bottom based breakout, some overhead resistance from Jan highs, CANSLIM nr good: RS 99, EPS 99, A/D B, U/D 1.3, timeliness B, funds only 9%. Tight base altho well above 50dma. [JA] Tom, I caught INVX out of DGs and I wish I had gone ahead and = bought this on April 1 when it was up 2.00 on 186% volume. Hindsight is = always 20-20. Some folks here advised to hold off and I tended to agree = because of the "M". However it kept on moving up to form the right side = of the cup. It is still off its 52 week. Any clue from the pattern if = this might continue on whether it will form the handle or continue on = up? I wonder if the street was aware of the good numbers to be reported = and that is why it kept on moving in a down market? But, if that was the = case, wouldn't we see the institutions holding more than 9%? I'm still learning and always appreciate your comments. 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EPS 88, Rel 97, Acc A, Spn A, Grp E GDYS- Closes at new 52 wk high today, EPS 78, Rel 98, Acc A, Spn A, Grp B MWL- Closed today and last 7 out of 9 days at new 52 wk highs, EPS 90, Rel 99, Acc A, Spn C, Grp B MK ($12.38) - Closed today and last 7/9 trading days at new 52 wk high, EPS 57, Rel 88, Acc A, Spn A, Grp C OFCP- Closed today new 52 wk high EPS 97, Rel 89, Acc A, Spn A, Grp A PRFN- Last six days in a row closing at new 52 wk high, EPS 99, Rel 94, Acc C, Spn A, Grp A SEWY-Last 4 days in a row closing at new 52 wk highs, EPS 90, Rel 97, Acc A, Spn A, Grp A SUBK (light volume) - Last 10 days in a row, new or equals 52 wk high, no down days, EPS 82, Rel 93, Acc A, Spn A, Grp A VTRA - Last 2 daysin a row new 52 wk highs, EPS 98, Rel 90, Acc B, Spn A, Grp A. These ARE out there. They are just not as easy to find as they used to be. Have others but think that is enough. Let me know what you think. Enjoy. Remember, this market is treacherous. I personally have stop loss orders physically in place on every single stock I own. James ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Joseph Vaughn-Perling Subject: [CANSLIM] DailyGraphs Online Date: 15 Apr 1997 16:54:10 -0700 ------ =_NextPart_000_01BC49BD.A4984360 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="us-ascii" Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit Is it true that DailyGraphs Online beta program is now open to anyone? 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It is advertised regularly in IBD. Are any of you familiar with it? Have you used it. Were you satisfied? How does it compare with the IBD Daily Graphs? Thanks Neil Himber ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Breakout alert - INVX Date: 15 Apr 1997 22:16:10 -0400 Backed off to the short base in today's trading, maybe due over tech weakness in NASDAQ? Remember that 9% fund holding is likely based on the Dec 31 reporting, they could own a lot more by now. A consolidation here might not be bad, stops the excessive buying in a disorderly mkt, which I expect to be down tomorrow, and gives it a chance to form a handle lower than the left side of the cup. Get rid of the sellors, let the vol dry up, and might have a rare pretty picture with good CANSLIM nrs. tom w ---------- [JA] Tom wrote: Innovex reported earnings Monday, two days early. Did 66 cents compared to estimate of 46 cents and 21 cents year prior. Possible double bottom based breakout, some overhead resistance from Jan [JA] Tom, I caught INVX out of DGs and I wish I had gone ahead and bought this on April 1 when it was up 2.00 on 186% volume. Hindsight is always 20-20. Some folks here advised to hold off and I tended to agree because of the "M". However it kept on moving up to form the right side of the cup. It is still off its 52 week. Any clue from the pattern if this might continue on whether it will form the handle or continue on up? I wonder if the street was aware of the good numbers to be reported and that is why it kept on moving in a down market? But, if that was the case, wouldn't we see the institutions holding more than 9%? ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] DailyGraphs Online Date: 15 Apr 1997 22:19:13 -0400 Not that I'm aware, and reaction time has remained good so presume it's not been swamped with users. I did change my p/w with no difficulty recently (had a problem personally with using "apple" :-) Also haven't heard anyone mentioning gaining access, and I think that WOULD be mentioned here. tom w ---------- > From: Joseph Vaughn-Perling > To: 'canslim@mail.xmission.com' > Subject: [CANSLIM] DailyGraphs Online > Date: Tuesday, April 15, 1997 7:54 PM > > Is it true that DailyGraphs Online beta program is now open to anyone? > I just signed in and got a user code and password. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Weekely update on Jame's Stock Picks 4/4/97 Date: 15 Apr 1997 22:26:45 -0400 Actually, James, I think we split on that, I was right on NASDAQ, and you were right on NYSE. Of course, NYSE was simply an unrealistic euphoric (kinda coming to like that word) overreaction to the "appearance" that inflation isn't a problem and therefore the Feds won't hike again anytime soon whereas NASDAQ was a more mature, seasoned response to continued evidence of inflationary pressures (see my post whenever I get done here). I agree that if anyone is trying to stay in this mkt with conventional CANSLIM style trailing stops, they will be stopped out more than they will be in. Of course the ones that don't stop out are probably well worth hanging onto. If you are going to play this mkt, esp in the height of earnings reporting and some further economic reports, then you gotta play them real tight or real loose. And real tight won't help you with gap downs! tom w ---------- > From: Brenda > To: canslim@mail.xmission.com > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Weekely update on Jame's Stock Picks 4/4/97 > Date: Tuesday, April 15, 1997 3:57 PM > > We use a 15% trailing stop loss. If the stock goes up we raise our selling > price but we start out with a sell price 15% below what we paid for it. To > use a 7,8 or 12% sell point in this market is LUDICROUS. I recommend you go > their money is the sideline. By the way, ask Tom if I called today's > advance!!!!!!!!! , NH 03062 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: [CANSLIM] Wednesday's Child Date: 15 Apr 1997 23:22:46 -0400 It's late, I'm tired, got standby for jury duty tomorrow as well as NASD coming for a muni audit, twelve hour days, etc etc etc so will try to be brief. Aftermkt trading - Clarify (CLFY) which closed down 2.625 at 16.75 on 665K shares, was trading at 7.125, thus qualifying for the "slice and dice" award, after reporting 9 cents for Q1 compared to 4 cents but warning of no growth in Q2. SUNW was off 3/8 after beating estimates of 47 cents with a report of 51 cents INTC was up 5/8 at 131 5/8 (I LIKED my Intel story, doncha like some humor?) MSFT was down an eighth HWP also down an eighth DELL was down an eighth as well Important earnings due Wednesday: Bear Stearns - expected 1.01 Colgate - 1.09 Compaq - 1.31 Cooper Tire - .30 Cummins - .93 Cyrix - .10 Ford - .87 Phillip Mo - 2.20 Whirlpool - .58 humor factor - Apple - (.98) - hey, it's better than the (1.98) they did a year ago! tom w Any opinions are strictly my own and not that of my employer. My comments are based on a variety of sources and are intended strictly to assist and inform. In no way am I suggesting a buy, sell, or hold decision based on my comments or observations. I always urge an investor to do his or her own homework, and be sure the risk of the market can be tolerated and any losses accepted gracefully. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: musicant@autobahn.org (Dan Musicant) Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] TeleChart 2000 Date: 16 Apr 1997 04:05:45 GMT On Tue, 15 Apr 1997 22:04:51 -0400, you wrote: :Hi: :I am considering subscribing to TeleChart 2000. It is advertised :regularly in IBD. Are any of you familiar with it? Have you used it.=20 :Were you satisfied? How does it compare with the IBD Daily Graphs? :Thanks :Neil Himber I am also interested in these questions. I have a friend who uses TC2000 and likes it, though she is a novice. I believe that it is the product of a couple of brothers (more accurately a plurality of brothers...I don't know how many!). The cost varies according to how many stocks you follow. They have specials and plans, I believe...something like $20/month is a "ballpark" figure. You connect to their server with an 800 number and download the latest data on the stocks you are tracking. You can, of course, add stocks at any time. The brothers have some special proprietary technical indicators of their own design, and provide instructive material in their use. Technical support is not toll free. The program is DOS, and I set up an icon ("shortcut") on my friend's desktop to launch it from Windows 95's Desktop. You can switch your charts to and from logarithmic plotting, and I'm sure much more. I've seen a lot of talk in this newsletter about IBD's Daily Graphs, and don't know how it works. I've never seen a description of what it entails, and I would appreciate anyone explaining what it is all about. There seems to be an online version and a "book" version. I can't make it out. Would someone please explain what DG is?? I know that there is a trial subscription available, but I would like to know something about it before ordering that, especially considering the unfriendly conditions of the markets currently. Thanks, Dan ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: musicant@autobahn.org (Dan Musicant) Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] WON AOL summary Date: 16 Apr 1997 04:08:10 GMT On Mon, 14 Apr 1997 23:12:57 -0400, you wrote: :WON's AOL online chat, 4/14 10pm ET. : :His personal charisma doesn't come through in this medium. : :Executive summary: get out and stay out of this market until an uptrend :is confirmed. Use time out of the market to study opportunities for :next bull leg (perhaps several months away). : :Grab this - only up next 24 hours! :http://www.geocities.com/WallStreet/7422/WON_41497.txt : :Derek Ouch! It's gone! Could someone post it here? Thanks, Dan. P.S. Going to see WON at Berkeley, Marriot Saturday. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: [CANSLIM] CPI Report or How could I be so wrong? Date: 16 Apr 1997 00:08:00 -0400 No time for an in-depth analysis (you're lucky tonight). I was right on CPI overall, dead wrong on core. Fast review, housing costs (neutral, and important core factor) threw me off. However, after seeing several other reports today, find that housing, surprising to me, ain't doing so hot in March and looking worse in April. Explains why so many home construction and materials stocks I looked at in past week didn't look so good either. PPI remains better indicator of future inflation, CPI just shows what's getting passed along now. Noted disturbing increase in cost of med care, remember this is BIG factor to Greenspan (see my earlier posts on him) as directly contributes to labor costs. Inventories ratios now at all time record low level, have theory, too many companies exhausting existing inventory to keep up sales nrs while helping bottom line due not spending on inventory replacement as fast (sales up 1.4%, inventory up 0.3%). Consumer confidence also extremely high (best in 10 yrs) and willingness to spend also extremely high (41% said now is good time to spend money, despite record setting levels of consumer debt). Continued demand, and so far is continuing, will evenually create excess demand to supply, making price increase passalongs easier. So far do not agree with analysts that mfr'ng activity picking up to replace inventory. Home purchasing shrinking, not normal in rising interest rate climate, usually potential buyers rush to lock in mtg rates and sales contracts when rates rise, but appears to be other way around. Also looks to get worse in near future. One of largest inventory increases, and greatest price drops, was in apparel group. Are sales already happening to clear out backlogged inventory? If so, could hurt a number of apparel stocks mentioned recently as doing well, including PSUN. Broker dealers profits continue to come in well above expectation, however slowing volume will hurt Q2. Late comment on SUNW earnings, on Dow News Svc at 8:09PM "analysts said they were pleased with Sun Micro performance in the third quarter, despite the weakness in its important Japanese market". (revenue growth being hurt by the strong dollar - also noted a number of other intl cos today commenting on earnings being hurt be several percentage pts due to the exchange rates globally, hence my prior comments about the Feds willing to see a strong dollar continue even tho it hurts exports and aids imports). SUNW's orders grew only 14% and book to bill was below one. Impact of the strong dollar was est at neg 3%. Most noteworthy to me in today's economic reports was rise in health care costs. Remember what I have said in past about Mr. G, his focus is on overally labor costs, which he believes have been artifically suppressed by job security fears (fewer demanding raises and promotions) and slower growth in benefits, esp health care costs. This latter appears to be heating up, as does demand for higher wages which has been subtlely offset by lower weekly hours, something that cannot continue if inventories must be replaced, and inventory ratios are at the lowest since record keeping started 15 years ago. I believe a rate hike at the May 20 FOMC meeting is a "done deal", only question is whether it will be 25 or 50 BP, I still lean more to 50 than 25. Today's divergence between the bond mkt/NYSE and NASDAQ clearly shows the growth decelleration fears of techs vs the over-optimistic big cap, cyclicals. The big caps are desperately searching for reasons to be optimistic, the techs are trading on human fears. As result, big caps are slightly overbought, techs remain neutral to oversold (assuming earnings estimates continue to hold up, and that is in question if growth is really slowing). Saw several comments today indicating chip growth this year expected to be around 10%, this sounds remarkedly low to me. Aren't you glad this was a fast review, composed mostly in my head, rather than after two or three hours of study and analysis. BOTTOM LINE: I consider today's action in NYSE stocks a rally in a continuing correction. I see more downside than upside. Today was an exit opportunity, not a buying or entry point shot. I expect similiar opportunities on NASDAQ, but not as strong due heavier mix of techs. Cos which beat estimates continue to be punished for it, there are undoubtedly good entry points for the long term, value based investor, but you have to be patient and willing to carry the position for awhile even at a loss. If you are looking for value, don't try to guess the bottom, nobody can do that successfully, IMHO. Just look long term and shop accordingly. BTW, gold continues its bearish trend, falling further today and threatening to fall below $340. The dollar backed off its recent highs, but is still very strong. Today's NYSE point gain was the biggest one day point move (altho certainly not in percentage terms) since (shudder!!!) October 21, 1987 while recovering from the Oct 87 crash! S&P 500 PE ratio now, after today's move, still at 19.53 compared to 18.70 a year ago. If I sound bearish, I am short term. I am concerned over the mkt's unwillingness to accept the high probability of a May rate hike and adjust accordingly. I remain worried about a sudden shift in sentiment when there are no strong earnings reports to support it. Personally (please don't ban me from this CANSLIM group, I like it here) I am tending to shift towards a more value oriented, longer term attitude in looking for ways to put my limited capital to work. Feel free to challenge my thinking, I am trying to find some positives about how this mkt is trading. I'm sure with my limited time I must be missing a lot, and there are still many good CANSLIM candidates out there, as James has pointed out. tom w Any opinions are strictly my own and not that of my employer. My comments are based on a variety of sources and are intended strictly to assist and inform. In no way am I suggesting a buy, sell, or hold decision based on my comments or observations. I always urge an investor to do his or her own homework, and be sure the risk of the market can be tolerated and any losses accepted gracefully. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] TeleChart 2000 Date: 16 Apr 1997 00:13:05 -0400 Dan, would recommend you try a "trial" book version (it's once a week for five weeks) to get a feel for what O'Neill's Data Graphs (DG) offer. I personally think it cheap enough and good value, esp as an intro. By the time your five weeks are up, the online version should be up and running, and you may want to try that if you like the book version. BTW, this weekend, the online version started including 8 qtrs (two years) of qtr'ly earnings and sales instead of only 4 (1 yr). Makes it a little easier to see seasonal patterns. Don't know if this will continue in the final online version, was a little confusing at first till I figured out how to read it, but now find it helpful. tom w ---------- On Tue, 15 Apr 1997 22:04:51 -0400, you wrote: :Hi: :I am considering subscribing to TeleChart 2000. It is advertised :regularly in IBD. Are any of you familiar with it? Have you used it. :Were you satisfied? How does it compare with the IBD Daily Graphs? :Thanks :Neil Himber I am also interested in these questions. I have a friend who uses TC2000 and likes it, though she is a novice. I believe that it is the product of a couple of brothers (more accurately a plurality of brothers...I don't know how many!). The cost varies according to how many stocks you follow. They have specials and plans, I believe...something like $20/month is a "ballpark" figure. You connect to their server with an 800 number and download the latest data on the stocks you are tracking. You can, of course, add stocks at any time. The brothers have some special proprietary technical indicators of their own design, and provide instructive material in their use. Technical support is not toll free. The program is DOS, and I set up an icon ("shortcut") on my friend's desktop to launch it from Windows 95's Desktop. You can switch your charts to and from logarithmic plotting, and I'm sure much more. I've seen a lot of talk in this newsletter about IBD's Daily Graphs, and don't know how it works. I've never seen a description of what it entails, and I would appreciate anyone explaining what it is all about. There seems to be an online version and a "book" version. I can't make it out. Would someone please explain what DG is?? I know that there is a trial subscription available, but I would like to know something about it before ordering that, especially considering the unfriendly conditions of the markets currently. Thanks, Dan ---------- ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Louis H. Gipson, RN" Subject: [CANSLIM] Test of information learned. Date: 15 Apr 1997 21:56:21 -0700 Hi folks, Been doing my reading and checking the suggested stocks against the tools I presently have, Yahoo Quotes, IBD, this list and the DG starting next week. Following Jim Sorrells' CANSLIM "recipe", I gleened six stocks from the IBD on 4/14 &4/15. They are MACD, DYA, MWL, ALBK, SWFT, & DNEX. Applying my current knowledge to the one year chart on MACD, I make the following observations. 1) For most of 1996 until about Oct. '96, this stock formed a very tight based around 23-24 on very small average volume. 2) The breakout point was late Oct. with a substantial increased in volume. 3) The buy in price was about 25. 4) A stop loss of 8% would have followed the price up until the high of ~36 and would have kicked in at ~33, realising a 32% gain in ~ 30 days. 5) Since Dec. 96, this stock has not really followed any CANSLIM pattern (that I know of) to the present day. So far as I have learned, this stock would have been tracked during the base period and acted on with the increased volume as the alert factor. These are the observations of a beginner CANSLIMer and I welcome any comments. Louis Gipson,RN ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Luke Lang Subject: [CANSLIM] O'Neil's AOL comments Date: 15 Apr 1997 22:38:42 -0500 Transcript of WON's AOL online chat, 4/14 10pm ET. His personal charisma doesn't come through in this medium. Executive summary: get out and stay out of this market until an uptrend is confirmed. Use time out of the market to study opportunities for next bull leg (perhaps several months away). 1. He was late, but picked up steam quickly. About 800+ in attendance. 2. Question: what do you think about Yahoo Inc WmONEIL: Thanks for your question. WmONEIL: The chart formation looks very strong WmONEIL: and down volume in 3 of the last 5 week, WmONEIL: however your general market environment WmONEIL: is not that positive. 3. Question: When will the Nasdaq slaughter stop?? WmONEIL: You should read our WmONEIL: general market page and analyze WmONEIL: daily the nasdaq price and volume changes WmONEIL: Technically, you're still in a downtrend WmONEIL: that has existed since Jan 23 WmONEIL: The probability is that it's going to WmONEIL: take more time to see a major change and improvement. 4. Question: Mr. O'Niel - Insider trading: Is there a percentage of shares sold by insiders of total Question: shares out that you would consider a red flag? Thanks WmONEIL: There's no specific percentage, WmONEIL: however, you'd like to see if selling WmONEIL: is 2 or 3 times as heavy as a year earlier. WmONEIL: Sometimes inside selling can be an unreliable guide. 5. Question: Mr. O'neill - Can you see a day when steel will be traded as a commodity, similar to Question: copper and aluminum? WmONEIL: I don't speculate in commodities, WmONEIL: so I don't have strong feel WmONEIL: as to whether steel would be eventually available. WmONEIL: for trading. 6. Question: What sectors are most attractive right now? Technology? Financial? WmONEIL: With the difficult market environment, WmONEIL: most sectors have been acting poorly. WmONEIL: The only sector showing unusual strength is on the retail side, companies such as WmONEIL: Home Depot, although these may not WmONEIL: do anything until the general market gets stronger. 7.Question: What is the single best mutual fund to buy (excluding yours) for aggressive growth?? WmONEIL: Brandywine, although they have a high minimum. WmONEIL: PBHG fund, although in the current market environment, they may come down lower WmONEIL: until we finally turn out of the negative WmONEIL: situation that's been occurring. 8. WmONEIL: Several people have asked, Is this a bear market? WmONEIL: Yes, we believe this is a normal or mild bear market WmONEIL: which began on January 23 with the WmONEIL: Nasdaq reversing on the largest one day volume WmONEIL: It is possible the dow could eventually come off WmONEIL: into the 5800 to 6200 area. WmONEIL: Most investors in an environment of this sort WmONEIL: should be off of margin, and WmONEIL: they should try to follow a policy WmONEIL: of cutting short losses when they're past WmONEIL: their purchase price by 8 or 10 percent. 9. Question: Welcome Mr. O'Neil, IBD and Daily Graphs are great! My question- When a stock breaks Question: out of a cup w/handle formation past the pivot buy point, is it crucial that it finish the week Question: above that point? This happened when I bought Orbotech last week. WmONEIL: In most cases, a stock should WmONEIL: definitely close above the pivot/buypoint. WmONEIL: It should close at the mid to upper half of its price range WmONEIL: for the week. And it's even better if it closes at WmONEIL: its peak. WmONEIL: It should not close unchanged or right at the pivot WmONEIL: after it's broken out. 10. Question: Is there any significance to the low volume days we've seen over the last week both on Question: the up side and on the down side? WmONEIL: Yes, since you're in a major downtrend in the market averages, WmONEIL: you have not pulled out heavy volume selling, WmONEIL: which implies that the ultimate market correction is WmONEIL: not yet over with. 11. Question: Mr O'neil...I plan to be in Vegas on 4/29...Can I attend your seminar or do I need Question: reservations to get in...Vinmatt WmONEIL: There also seems to be a lack of powerful buying WmONEIL: volume when stocks are trying to rally back. WmONEIL: Regarding our seminars, please call our customer WmONEIL: service department at 800-831-2525 12. Question: What groups of stocks do you think will lead the next meaningful rally? WmONEIL: You have to watch the market as it has a follow through WmONEIL: and then see what groups are strong at that time. WmONEIL: At this time, we have not had a follow through or rally yet. 13. Question: What is the single best piece of advice you can give to a new CANSLIM investor (other Question: than studying your book and subscribing to IBD which I have already done) during this market Question: correction? WmONEIL: You should listen to all of our audio tapes, WmONEIL: and it would help to subscribe to a chart service, WmONEIL: try to attend one of our seminars, or take the investment course we have here on AOL. 14. Question: Can you explain the difference in chart patterns between a "cup and handle" and a Question: "double top". The one is supposed to be a positive and the other negative. I can't tell the Question: difference. WmONEIL: A cup with a handle is a buy formation, WmONEIL: that looks like a cup from the side. WmONEIL: The double top formation is actually not a buy formation but a top formation WmONEIL: We do not label tops as double tops. We tend to WmONEIL: interpret the day to day price and volume changes, noting the number of volume WmONEIL: distribution that occurs. 15. Question: Is it ever a good idea to average down on stocks which have fallen in price? Or do you Question: prefer stocks to be making new highs before buying in? WmONEIL: Never, I would never average down. WmONEIL: You wait until you're in a strong market, and WmONEIL: then you average up. You WmONEIL: can be right once or twice averaging WmONEIL: down, but the other times you will WmONEIL: or could probably lose your shirt. 16. Question: What percent of total capital do you recommend having invested in the market, versus Question: bonds and cash WmONEIL: If you're in a bull market WmONEIL: and you're stocks are working WmONEIL: there's nothing wrong with being 100% invested. WmONEIL: and if you're experienced using margins, there's nothing wrong with using them. WmONEIL: I do not believe in asset allocation, WmONEIL: and there's no specific number for bonds. WmONEIL: I've never owned a bond in my life. WmONEIL: If stocks are not acting right, WmONEIL: you would just sell and raise cash or go into WmONEIL: money market funds for a temporary place for money. 17. Question: Is Greenspan likely to continue to raise interest rates? Historically, he raises rates Question: in a series. WmONEIL: Yes, we probably will see another raise in interest rates. 18. Question: Do you day trade? WmONEIL: No, your object isn't to scout a point or two. The bigger WmONEIL: potential is in doing intermediate term trading if you want to trade. 19. Question: on stock splits ex boeing, intel, best to purchase before or after the split? WmONEIL: It depends on where the stock is. WmONEIL: If a stock is in a base, it may be alright. WmONEIL: If it extended from the bases substantially, it should be sold. WmONEIL: Furthermore, the second time a stock splits WmONEIL: in the last year or so may be in or around it's top. 20. Question: Mr. O'Neil: I think you are one of the great men of America. Are there any plans to Question: change your social/political commentaries? I hope not. America needs a mainstream publication Question: withyour investigative, documentated approach. (I love you, man.....) WmONEIL: We appreciate your following, and our objective WmONEIL: is to just get the facts out. 21. Question: Mr. O'Neil, with all the conflicting bullish/bearish sentiments running rampant so far Question: this year, do you have any personal leanings about which way the 1997 market will go? WmONEIL: We don't believe in opinions, we just try WmONEIL: to follow the day by day market average, and determine their price and volume WmONEIL: action to see if we are in a major uptrend or downtrend. WmONEIL: Currently we've been in a downtrend on all three major averages. WmONEIL: If this is a bear market, it typically is out of the way in 6 to 8 months. 22. Question: I've been subscribing to IBD and Daily Charts for years... Keep up the good work! You Question: say to cut losses when your down 7% or so. How do you handle that when spreads are near that Question: and secondly, immediate fluctuations that take you down that much day 1or2? WmONEIL: If you buy a stock at exactly a pivot point WmONEIL: even if it has wide spread, WmONEIL: the stock will rarely correct at 7 or 8 percent. WmONEIL: When you get into trouble buying wider speads is if you WmONEIL: bought the stock late. WmONEIL: The other question is if a stock breaks rapidly, you still have to protect your account. WmONEIL: In most cases, you still need to sell. WmONEIL: If you study charts and develop good skills, WmONEIL: in most cases, you can see if a stock will get into WmONEIL: trouble beforehand. 23. Question: Why do you think that stocks with high EPS rankings and low RS rankings don't do better Question: in either the short or long run? WmONEIL: You never want to buy stocks with just one WmONEIL: factor positive and the other negative. You want both to be WmONEIL: positive. You want stocks with both an 80 or better RS and EPS Rank. WmONEIL: You never want to buy any stock with a poor Relative Strength. WmONEIL: I'm often asked how long do I spend reading IBD each day. WmONEIL: I usually spend 20 to 30 minutes each day. WmONEIL: I always look at the general market page WmONEIL: each day and check out the Stocks with the Greatest Percent Rise in Volume Table. WmONEIL: I scan the tables looking for stocks that are boldfaced. WmONEIL: Then I check out the group that have the most stocks making WmONEIL: new highs, and then the earnings reports. 24. Question: Do you think that we will ever get a meaningful capital rates reduction? WmONEIL: Yes, in time, that should occur, WmONEIL: but you may have to have political changes first. 25. Question: Do you recommend opening positions in a market like the one we have now??? WmONEIL: I would not buy any stocks WmONEIL: until the market follows through and we feel that WmONEIL: we've definitely turned into a new and major uptrend. WmONEIL: Investors should learn to check WmONEIL: IBD's general market page and spend some time WmONEIL: Learning how to interpret it properly. 26. Question: In reading IBD, where is the best place to find up and coming companies, quickly? WmONEIL: The New America page WmONEIL: and Computers & Technology. WmONEIL: I would encourage people WmONEIL: to use this time to do a lot WmONEIL: of reading, studying, and research. Soon we will start a new cycle, and you definitely WmONEIL: want to be prepared and do your homework WmONEIL: for that time. 27. Question: Mr. O'Neil, Can you tell us where to find up-down volume for individual stocks WmONEIL: Daily Graphs shows up/down volume for most stocks. WmONEIL: However, I believe a person would better be informed by learning to interpret WmONEIL: price and volume changes off the charts. 28. Question: What makes this correction different than last summer's correction? WmONEIL: There were 13 days of volume distribution across the down from WmONEIL: January 23 to March 23. WmONEIL: Additionally, most leaders have come under heavy selling pressure. 29. Question: Is your publication inclined to the momentum investor? WmONEIL: No. We operate on basic WmONEIL: fundamentals, EPS Rank, Volume changes, institutional sponsorship, WmONEIL: New America companies. The momentum is just one small part WmONEIL: which can be measured in part by Relative WmONEIL: Strength and price action. WmONEIL: Thanks for joining us tonight. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Brenda" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] TeleChart 2000 Date: 16 Apr 1997 00:45:08 -0500 Dan, Personally, I have found TC2000 to be quite satisfactory. When I got started, set it up for about $40. Came with a base of stocks. Can add a new stock to my list and get a years history for $.39 - Then this stock is added to your base and your daily charge will increase until it reaches a maximum of $.99 per day. I have been adding charts to my base since 1990. At first, I could not afford to add every single chart I wanted to. I added as I could. At first, tight parameter until now I just add any stock mentioned in the IBD Week-End Review that I do not have on my base. This keeps you up with the market and fairly close to current trends. Once you start adding ALL you get where weekly you are not adding very many. The graphs are colorful and easy to read. My biggest problem is being able to TOTALLY ignore their comments and particularly their stock selections. They are really PITIFUL when it comes to that. They used to have a mock portfolio but did so poorly it did not last 90 days before they just cashed out. And that was back when the bull was raging. They couldn't pick'em back then. You can add all sorts of gimmicks to your graphs and I am probably using about 25% of the gimmicks available. The days prices can be pulled down about 5:30 pm CST each day. I have about 40 different portfolios and requests for TC2000 to scan each day and find if any stocks in the base meet any of those particular criteria. I am very pleased. Before Daily Graphs went Internet, and I am not sure it is now, I just could not live with the EXTENDED delivery. By the time I could get those they were basically of no value to me. I'm sure they serve a purpose and must be pretty good for the price. However, when a "friend/fellow investor" would forward some hot info he had just gotten it was real, real OLD hat to me. Of course, being an individual investor and doing something for a living can make a basically good or excellent product for most average investors worthless to somebody who has already had to make his call before those are even received. I am usually making my calls before they are even printed. Oh well, TC2000 works just great for me and the cost is one of the few bargains I have found still out there. Hope this helps. Bet you will get a lot of different views about the same subject. James ---------- On Tue, 15 Apr 1997 22:04:51 -0400, you wrote: :Hi: :I am considering subscribing to TeleChart 2000. It is advertised :regularly in IBD. Are any of you familiar with it? Have you used it. :Were you satisfied? How does it compare with the IBD Daily Graphs? :Thanks :Neil Himber I am also interested in these questions. I have a friend who uses TC2000 and likes it, though she is a novice. I believe that it is the product of a couple of brothers (more accurately a plurality of brothers...I don't know how many!). The cost varies according to how many stocks you follow. They have specials and plans, I believe...something like $20/month is a "ballpark" figure. You connect to their server with an 800 number and download the latest data on the stocks you are tracking. You can, of course, add stocks at any time. The brothers have some special proprietary technical indicators of their own design, and provide instructive material in their use. Technical support is not toll free. The program is DOS, and I set up an icon ("shortcut") on my friend's desktop to launch it from Windows 95's Desktop. You can switch your charts to and from logarithmic plotting, and I'm sure much more. I've seen a lot of talk in this newsletter about IBD's Daily Graphs, and don't know how it works. I've never seen a description of what it entails, and I would appreciate anyone explaining what it is all about. There seems to be an online version and a "book" version. I can't make it out. Would someone please explain what DG is?? I know that there is a trial subscription available, but I would like to know something about it before ordering that, especially considering the unfriendly conditions of the markets currently. Thanks, Dan ---------- ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Louis H. Gipson, RN" Subject: [CANSLIM] Self test of information learned Date: 15 Apr 1997 22:54:35 -0700 Hi folks, This is for you veteran CANSLIMers. Been doing my reading and checking the suggested stocks against the tools I presently have, Yahoo Quotes, IBD, this list and the DG starting next week. Following Jim Sorrells' CANSLIM "recipe", I gleened six stocks from the IBD on 4/14 &4/15. They are MACD, DYA, MWL, ALBK, SWFT, & DNEX. Applying my current knowledge to the one year chart on MACD, I make the following observations. 1) For most of 1996 until about Oct. '96, this stock formed a very tight based around 23-24 on very small average volume. 2) The breakout point was late Oct. with a substantial increased in volume. 3) The buy in price was about 25. 4) A stop loss of 8% would have followed the price up until the high of ~36 and would have kicked in at ~33, realising a 32% gain in ~ 30 days. 5) Since Dec. 96, this stock has not really followed any CANSLIM pattern (that I know of) to the present day. So far as I have learned, this stock would have been tracked during the base period and acted on with the increased volume as the alert factor. These are the observations of a beginner CANSLIMer and I welcome any comments. Louis Gipson,RN ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Luke Lang Subject: [CANSLIM] Programmed trading Date: 15 Apr 1997 22:55:21 -0500 Tom, I read the following from IBD's NYSE commentary: "The Dow climbed 99 points by 1:30 p.m. Shortly thereafter, a sell program came in to cut the Dow's gain to 38. But powerful buying in the last hour swept the blue chip average higher. " I thought programmed trading was prohibited (or restricted) once the Dow moves 50 points up or down. Could you please provide some insight? Thanks. Luke Lang ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Peter Christiansen Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] DailyGraphs Online Date: 16 Apr 1997 13:28:58 GMT+7 ** Reply to note from "Tom Worley" Tue, 15 Apr 1997 22:19:13 -0400 > Not that I'm aware, and reaction time has remained good so presume > it's not been swamped with users. I did change my p/w with no > difficulty recently (had a problem personally with using "apple" > :-) > Also haven't heard anyone mentioning gaining access, and I think > that WOULD be mentioned here. > > tom w Daily Graphs online??? Where can I get more information about this? I have searched all over the web, and came up empty handed. Thanks. Peter Christiansen Bangkok, Thailand Connected with OS/2 Warp 3.0 & The Post Road Mailer _____________________________________________________________________________________ What do you mean you "formatted the cat"?!?! ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: derek b Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] TeleChart 2000 Date: 16 Apr 1997 07:55:54 -0400 Worden Brothers is currently offering 30-day trial of TC2000. Try it. I find it to be a dinosaur with limited capability compared to the "new kid" on the block - Quotes Plus. I have been using QP for 1 year. It is an exceptional service for daily data on > 10,000 stocks and indices. A scanning program can look for technical and fundamental criteria you customize. Scanning is much more powerful in QP. And QP is cheaper. I pay $11.66 per month flat rate for QP for Internet d/l. QP can feed other TA programs, like Metastock, Window on Wall St, Supercharts, etc. You can d/l a fully functional demo of QP at http://www.quotes-plus.com As to comparison with DG - DG has much more fundamental info than either TC2000 or QP, but capabilities of scanning in the new online version are unclear. Finally, TC2000 will nickel and dime you to death with their basic package. If you go with TC, I recommend TC2000Pro, which has a higher starting cost, but has a ceiling on daily data charges. Derek > Hi: > I am considering subscribing to TeleChart 2000. It is advertised > regularly in IBD. Are any of you familiar with it? Have you used it. > Were you satisfied? How does it compare with the IBD Daily Graphs? > Thanks > Neil Himber ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] DailyGraphs Online Date: 16 Apr 1997 07:56:19 -0400 DG Online is currently in Beta testing, last word I had was that they expected to be commercially available around mid-April, but no announcement yet and at least one group member called DG and the sales person knew nothing, so probably not ready yet. Cost is about the same as the books, but you get all stocks, not just the ones in the book, altho you don't get as much info on a stock not in the books. Just recently they added another 4 qtrs of earnings and sales data. The other benefit is that you get updated price and volume on the charts throughout the week. You also get current "market trend" charts. tom w ---------- > From: Peter Christiansen > To: canslim@mail.xmission.com > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] DailyGraphs Online > Date: Wednesday, April 16, 1997 9:28 AM > > Daily Graphs online??? Where can I get more information about this? I have searched > all over the web, and came up empty handed. Thanks. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Programmed trading Date: 16 Apr 1997 08:01:04 -0400 Fully automated execution of programs is turned off with the circuit breakers, but the programs can still go on, just a little slower and requiring a little more work. tom w ---------- > From: Luke Lang > To: CANSLIM List > Subject: [CANSLIM] Programmed trading > Date: Tuesday, April 15, 1997 11:55 PM > I thought programmed trading was prohibited (or restricted) once the > Dow moves 50 points up or down. Could you please provide some ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Peter P. Newell" Subject: [CANSLIM] Re: Self Test MACD Date: 16 Apr 1997 09:21 -0400 (EDT) >>Breakout 25 closed at 33 not following pattern anymore. Looks good to me. Nice exit. Peter Newell ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Peter P. Newell" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] TeleChart 2000 Date: 16 Apr 1997 09:14 -0400 (EDT) >>How is TC2000 I have been using it and it gives the best acc/dis info available but is not good for scanning. I also like VectorVest. Peter Newell ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "David F. Cameron" Subject: [CANSLIM] Intros Revisited Date: 16 Apr 1997 8:22:16 CDT Last week's talk on introductions made me think of something that is done in another group I'm in. On the server which sorts and sends the messages, a web site was set up to hold a few pertinent facts about each member. Ideas here could be name, investing experience, field of work, and anything else you wanted to share. Since I've been on this group since day 3 - I've saved everyone's intro if they posted one. In fact, I urged people to send them early on - kinda like Tom is now - but not for very long. Anyway, Jeff, could this be done. If not, would anyone find it worthwhile - I could send the intros - but I can't set up a home page. Dave Cameron dcameron@harper.cc.il.us p.s I chekced out mike l's and zoran's home page pix. Mike - you've gotta get an updated picture - it looks like a refugee from 1979. Zoran - where do you find time to learn all that's on your resume!?! And yes, I've met Zoran - the picture does look like him. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Jay Cliburn" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Programmed trading Date: 16 Apr 1997 07:48:15 -0600 > I thought programmed trading was prohibited (or restricted) once the > Dow moves 50 points up or down. Could you please provide some > insight? Thanks. If the DJIA moves 50 points up or down from the previous day's close, the following condition applies: In up market, index arbitrage program buys in S&P 500 stocks must be executed on a minus or a zero-minus tick. In a down market, index arbitrage sells (including short sales) in S&P 500 stocks must be executed on a plus or zero-plus tick. I don't think there are any restrictions on an index abitrage sell program in an up market. -- Jay Cliburn | Space Dynamics Laboratory Computational Sciences Division | 1747 North Research Park Way Jay.Cliburn@sdl.usu.edu | Logan, Utah, USA 84341 (801) 755-4317 (voice) | (801) 755-4366 (fax) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Zoran Mitrovski Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Intros Revisited Date: 16 Apr 1997 10:26:48 -0400 (EDT) Dave C. wrote: > p.s I chekced out mike l's and zoran's home page pix. > Mike - you've gotta get an updated picture - it looks > like a refugee from 1979. I think he looks pretty cool, Dave. Fashion, just like the markets has its own cycles. Just wait for couple more years. mike, I like it even two years in advance. ;^) > Zoran - where do you find > time to learn all that's on your resume!?! Too bad you're not going to be offering me any jobs in the near future, Dave. I could use few recruitment comittees with you in them by the end of the year. ;^) > And yes, I've met Zoran - the picture does look like him. I'm still wearing that same flanel shirt almost every day, too. You know, have to blend in with the grad students crowd. ;^) Cheers, Zoran http://www.seas.rochester.edu:8080/ee/users/zmitrov/home.html ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Peter Christiansen Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] DailyGraphs Online Date: 16 Apr 1997 21:50:53 GMT+7 ** Reply to note from "Tom Worley" Wed, 16 Apr 1997 07:56:19 -0400 > DG Online is currently in Beta testing, last word I had was that > they expected to be commercially available around mid-April, but no > announcement yet and at least one group member called DG and the > sales person knew nothing, so probably not ready yet. Cost is about > the same as the books, but you get all stocks, not just the ones in > the book, altho you don't get as much info on a stock not in the > books. Just recently they added another 4 qtrs of earnings and > sales data. The other benefit is that you get updated price and > volume on the charts throughout the week. You also get current > "market trend" charts. VERY interesting. Do you know if the data stays on their server? In other words, do you have to stay connected while you browse through the charts, or can you do that off line? Peter Christiansen Bangkok, Thailand Connected with OS/2 Warp 3.0 & The Post Road Mailer _____________________________________________________________________________________ I thought *everyone* knew Stones & Windows don't go together! ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Craig Griffin Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] TeleChart 2000 Date: 16 Apr 1997 10:55:24 -0400 (EDT) I agree with Derek re: Quotes Plus vs Telechart 2000. I prefer Quotes Plus for most of the same reasons he sited. TC2000 does have some advantages. Main one is that updates are ready at 6:30pm EST. QP updates are not ready until 8:00pm EST. But I am usually not ready to look at them until then, so it does not impact me too much. I also use DG via normal (paper) subscription. I might consider switching to DG Online from QP if it had scan capabilities. QP has a free trial available on the net. Worden Bros was good about refunding my money a couple of years back after I tryed out their product and requested a refund within the 30 day trial. So you could try them both and decide that way if you want to spend the time doing it. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Craig Griffin Subject: [CANSLIM] VectorVest Date: 16 Apr 1997 10:55:27 -0400 (EDT) Peter, At 09:14 AM 4/16/97 -0400, you wrote: >I also like VectorVest. I saw this demo'd at the Money Show in Orlando by the owner/author. It looked neat. Especially the way it did the filtering and picked top stocks. Looks like it is mostly moving average based for stops and buys: is that right?. Pretty charts. Weekly only (is that also right?). How is it working out for you? Was tempted to try it. Craig ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: jeff@scrooge.idec.sdl.usu.edu (Jeff Salisbury) Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Intros Revisited Date: 16 Apr 1997 08:57:34 -0600 On Apr 16, 8:22am, David F. Cameron wrote: > Subject: [CANSLIM] Intros Revisited > Last week's talk on introductions made me think of something > that is done in another group I'm in. On the server which > sorts and sends the messages, a web site was set up to > hold a few pertinent facts about each member. > > Ideas here could be name, investing experience, field of > work, and anything else you wanted to share. > > Since I've been on this group since day 3 - I've saved > everyone's intro if they posted one. In fact, I urged > people to send them early on - kinda like Tom is now - > but not for very long. > > Anyway, Jeff, could this be done. If not, would anyone > find it worthwhile - I could send the intros - but I > can't set up a home page. Dave, There is a home page associated with our group. It is located at: www.xmission.com/~mcjathan/canslim/canslim.htm I set the page up mainly to attract new subscribers. What you are proposing could be done, but my only hesitation is the amount of work that it would require. If we can come up with simple, low-maintenance way of providing this info via the web page, I would be inclined to do it... Jeff > > Dave Cameron > dcameron@harper.cc.il.us >-- End of excerpt from David F. Cameron ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Brenda" Subject: [CANSLIM] The Economy? Date: 16 Apr 1997 10:01:18 -0500 Tom, Always read your posts with great interest. Got a question for you concerning your view on the economy and your estimation that inflation is HERE. Some thoughts piqued by guest on CNBC. "IF" inflation is here why the following: Toy sales in December were horrendously down, not just a little down. Toys R Us had worst period in it's history. Do people not spend at Christmas time when periods of inflation are upon us? Retail sales almost across the board around Christmas were terrible at best. Admit have shown some increase lately, but over a terrible period? So what? Credit card default is at an all time high? Is this consistent with view inflation is here? Doesn't seem to reason to me. How can people spend when in terrible debt trouble? I have NOT seen prices at the stores increasing as I would expect during periods of inflation. In fact, quite to the contrary Mr. Jimmy Rogers. I see more and more and more sales and am buying most of the products I regularly buy at much lower prices. Housing buys - when one interest rate happens, supposedly more to follow an ABSOLUTE NO INTEREST is shown to go out and buy new houses. Been to a mall lately? Empty compared to times of the past. Been to a picture show lately? No problem with arriving 5 mintues before show time, picking up a ticket and getting a GREAT seat. My theaters are almost empty even when a new show starts. Football games - Scalpers are being laughed at! Go to game without a ticket and get one for LESS THAN face value. There are many more examples. I do not have all your sophistocated numbers and figures but I DO watch what is happening around me. I see the absolutely OPPOSITE of inflation happening. In fact, not that terribly long ago the talk was that Mr. G should be LOWERING the interest rate, not raising it but he could not because the market is climbing. Real dumb reasoning but I have never seen that hamper the Fed or our Gov't from doing something unreasonable in the past. Jobs? Know anybody trying to really get one? Do you think they are having trouble or do you think it is easy right now? I'm not talking about those on unemployment who don't one in the first place but those really looking and seeking. See the Gov't hiring? Now, Mr. C said it is at low rates but is anyone aware that once hired by Soc. Sec that for doing basically NOTHING SPECIAL, just being there, showing up, never have any great ideas, never cause any trouble, just doing what you are told in a "preferably" average mode you will get a 10% raise at least every two years. Just some thoughts about things I notice out in the real world. How did the figures come in or will it take a while yet to see just how many and how much was put into IRA's not to pay tax? Anybody else have any views? Survey requested. Is there "anybody else" out there that thinks the Fed is fighting NON EXISTENT inflation or am I all alone. I'm used to being out there but don't think I am alone on this one. James ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Brenda" Subject: [CANSLIM] Fw: TC2000 Date: 16 Apr 1997 10:12:58 -0500 I originally sent this to only Peter but am forwarding it to the group due to the posts that seem to be appearing about TC2000 not having good scanning capabilities. Just what is it that it does NOT do. With my size base it does take it 15 minutes to complete all of the scans that I request for it to do after downloading the prices. If I could not get my quotes til 8 pm EST that would mean I would not get through with my analysis each day until 3 or 4 am (CST). Don't think I could handle much of that and get to bed and back up in time for the market open. Right now, analysis does not take as long as it used to due to the pitiful look of most graphs but when market is healthy many nights I work furiously to be done before the market opens. Also, if anybody sends out faxes to others about what they find or want to share info with others and hear their comments how could you get quotes at 8 EST and have your info in time to get it out and get info back. Maybe that doesn't matter for most. I really would like to hear specifically what it is that TC2000 does not do for you. If you only stayed with it 30 days I do not see how you could possibly have "understood" all they do. I have been with them since 1990 and am finding new "things" all the time. I do have one BIG complaint however. I would like to be able to import the information into other places. The graphs also do not print PERFECTLY on a sheet of paper but that "could be" my lack of knowing how to do it. James P.S. I am not affiliated nor do I have any interest in TC2000. I am not promoting them, nor do I KNOW if something else is better. They just do what I need the service to do. ---------- > From: Brenda > To: Peter.P.Newell@MCI.Com > Subject: TC2000 > Date: Wednesday, April 16, 1997 9:14 AM > > Peter, > What do you mean it is not good for scanning? Do you know how to use > F7? Do you have your own personal parameters set for TC2000 to scan for you > each day after it downloads the prices? I have about 30 personal requests > for it to look for each day. For example: > 1. Any stock that is up today from 7 days ago and that price up from 7 > days prior to that and that price up from the price 7 days prior to that - > (This is a stock which is up for 3 weeks in a row. I have this same type > criteria for up 4,5,6 and 7 weeks in a row. > 2. Close today up $1 from close yesterday and volume double today what it > was yesterday. > 3. All stocks closing at a new 52 week high today. > 4. All stocks under $12 and up 3 days in a row > 5. All stocks up $1 or more today and volume at least double yesterday > volume. > I have found that by giving it criteria such as this to look for at the end > of each day I see any stock that is moving. > > Then once looking at the graphs I have my F1, F2 and F3 keys set up to look > at the stock using certain guidelines. I put channels on all of my graphs > that I am considering buying or watching seriously and the channel lines > stay there. I also have 10 day moving average, 50 day moving average and > 100 day moving average on my charts. Then on one key I compare the stocks > to the DJ30 and on another to the COMPQX. Personally, I hardly ever use > their BOP and Money Stream anymore. They cost me money by my NOT making > purchases based on what they told me. Found those indicators about as > usable and dependable as their deplorable stock picks and recommendations. > Oh well....... Personalizing the system to MY OWN needs has made it very > satisfactory for me. If you wanted to call me and discuss what I do I would > be glad to help if you think I can. > James ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Michael A Langston Subject: [CANSLIM] pix (was re: Intros Revisited) Date: 16 Apr 1997 11:14:46 -0400 > Mike - you've gotta get an updated picture - it looks > like a refugee from 1979. dave, i catch that kinda grief from my sec'y -- and now you guys too? -- other pix of me are generally at a quarter mile and on a dead run, so an ancient pic will simply have to do -- photogenic i ain't > I think he looks pretty cool, Dave. Fashion, just like the > markets has its own cycles. Just wait for couple more years. zoran, this is what we call "damning with faint praise" -- now you're diss-ing like a native, well done! you fellas clearly have too much time on your hands -- if you've got the bandwidth too, here's a pic of my family and me whitewater rafting in alaska -- and it's only a coupla-three years old, what a deal -- this was snapped just out of denali nat'l park -- i think the guide (in blue) liked having his pic taken more than anyone else did :) http://kenner.cs.utk.edu/~langston/gifs/raft.gif meanwhile, getting back to canslim, i'm still mostly in t-bills, this is no market for anyone w/ a day job IMHO -- anyone catch arch crawford this am on cnbc? -- i only caught a snippet, wish i'd heard the whole spiel... mike ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "David F. Cameron" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Intros Revisited Date: 16 Apr 1997 10:15:17 CDT > > - Indicates Dave > - Indicates Jeff > > Anyway, Jeff, could this be done. If not, would anyone > > find it worthwhile - I could send the intros - but I > > can't set up a home page. > >There is a home page associated with our group. It is located at: > > www.xmission.com/~mcjathan/canslim/canslim.htm > >I set the page up mainly to attract new subscribers. > >What you are proposing could be done, but my only hesitation is the amount of >work that it would require. If we can come up with simple, low-maint. way >of providing this info via the web page, I would be inclined to do it... > > Jeff Perhaps we could come up with suggestions. The way it works for the other group I mentioned is that there is a straight form to use - something along the lines of Name: City of Residence: Investing Experience: Line of Work: Other relevant comments: There is a link to each name via a search engine from the home page. The initial set-up was done by the list administrator (i.e. you in this case) - but from maintenance there was no involvement from the list admin. Basically, each member was responsible for updating their own info. As new members signed on, they were responsible to add their own info. Granted this means about 40% non-compliance (in that group) - but hey, 60% compliance isn't bad. If you want, I could dig out the intros I've saved - but it would probably be more reliable to come from the archives with a search. Dave Cameron dcameron@harper.cc.il.us ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Brenda" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] pix (was re: Intros Revisited) Date: 16 Apr 1997 10:27:19 -0500 He went from 100% long to 200% short on the exact day of the top on the S&P 500 - Feb 18th) - per the show. States he sees 50% decline in the market and it should go down for next 1 1/2 to 3(?) years. Not much of a historian or else O'Neil isn't. Which is right? Most bear markets last about 8 months or the market can do down for 1 1/2 years (his minimum) estimation. I glory in his spunk putting that ole neck out there on the block and his call date done on Feb 14th was REAL GOOD. However, if he is right on this one he won't have any newsletter. Investor desert the ship (newsletter subscriptions) in bad times - the times when they need help and advice the most. They jump on board in good times, the times when they need help the least. He stated no 50% correction since 73 (I think). For historian, however, 37,57 and 77 were bad years. Incombant Demo pres years are terrible. Always have been. Long in this bull market - good time to predict downturn. Fed cooperating in every way possible to kill the bull market. 7th year in a decade usually a bad year. All of those "type" indicators are pretty bad with the only good one of "those type" indicators showing postive was the right team won the Superbowl to have a good year. I may not believe in most of those indicators but I do watch them. Also, Granville going bullish was a terrible thing for the bulls. He hasn't been right EVER yet his subscription base is out of this world. Don't understand that at all. Is he funny or something? Anybody subscribe to him? Why? Contrarian indicator? If that be so, just listen for Ms. G. Same, same. James ---------- > From: Michael A Langston > To: canslim@mail.xmission.com > Subject: [CANSLIM] pix (was re: Intros Revisited) > Date: Wednesday, April 16, 1997 10:14 AM > > > > Mike - you've gotta get an updated picture - it looks > > like a refugee from 1979. > > dave, i catch that kinda grief from my sec'y -- and now you guys > too? -- other pix of me are generally at a quarter mile and on a > dead run, so an ancient pic will simply have to do -- photogenic > i ain't > > > I think he looks pretty cool, Dave. Fashion, just like the > > markets has its own cycles. Just wait for couple more years. > > zoran, this is what we call "damning with faint praise" -- now > you're diss-ing like a native, well done! > > you fellas clearly have too much time on your hands -- if you've > got the bandwidth too, here's a pic of my family and me whitewater > rafting in alaska -- and it's only a coupla-three years old, what > a deal -- this was snapped just out of denali nat'l park -- i think > the guide (in blue) liked having his pic taken more than anyone > else did :) > http://kenner.cs.utk.edu/~langston/gifs/raft.gif > > meanwhile, getting back to canslim, i'm still mostly in t-bills, > this is no market for anyone w/ a day job IMHO -- anyone catch > arch crawford this am on cnbc? -- i only caught a snippet, wish > i'd heard the whole spiel... > > mike ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "David F. Cameron" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] The Economy? Date: 16 Apr 1997 10:22:57 CDT James, Well... while I'm logged on - you didn't ask for it, but I'm going to jump in with my two cents on your posting before Tom gets back from work. I think one of the keys here is still the PPI. The PPI should drive up prices somewhere and this seems to be a big factor for Greenspan. > debt trouble? I have NOT seen prices at the stores increasing as I would > expect during periods of inflation. In fact, quite to the contrary Mr. > Jimmy Rogers. I see more and more and more sales and am buying most of the > products I regularly buy at much lower prices. Housing buys - when one I do agree with you on the above point - although the Fed seems to believe that waiting until this is evident is too long. > basically NOTHING SPECIAL, just being there, showing up, never have any > great ideas, never cause any trouble, just doing what you are told in a > "preferably" average mode you will get a 10% raise at least every two > years. This is not true in my neck of the woods. For most of my friends, 3% a year is the standard for corporate america. > did the figures come in or will it take a while yet to see just how many > and how much was put into IRA's not to pay tax? Anybody else have any > views? Survey requested. Is there "anybody else" out there that thinks the > Fed is fighting NON EXISTENT inflation or am I all alone. I'm used to being > out there but don't think I am alone on this one. Well.... personally I think the Federal Reserve System should be elim- inated and the whole interest bearing note market left to private means. But... this won't happen realistically. IMHO, the free market would do a much better job (with government LAWS to protect abuses, not govt-appointed FOMC chairs). But having said this, it is hard to second guess Greenspan given how tame inflation has been. This isn`t to say it is his doing - but it is under his tenure. Dave ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Linda Thomas Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] VectorVest Date: 16 Apr 1997 11:30:38 -0400 I tried their five week trial. People shouldn't write professional = software in Visual Basic. It was very unstable and almost every crash = would result in a corrupt database that would take hours to repair. =20 Also, although they supplied a years worth of data the backtest module = would only seem to go back around 3 months which made it hard to really = evaluate. It was software that has potential. They do offer a daily service now = though it's fairly expensive (though not compared to DG). =20 The program looks like it has potential, but the lack of stability makes = it hard to use for any but the most determined. -Linda -----Original Message----- Sent: Wednesday, April 16, 1997 10:55 AM Peter, At 09:14 AM 4/16/97 -0400, you wrote: >I also like VectorVest. =20 I saw this demo'd at the Money Show in Orlando by the owner/author. It looked neat. Especially the way it did the filtering and picked top = stocks. Looks like it is mostly moving average based for stops and buys: is that right?. Pretty charts. Weekly only (is that also right?). How is it working out for you? Was tempted to try it. Craig ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Brenda" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] The Economy? Date: 16 Apr 1997 10:58:20 -0500 My 10% raise figure every three years was refering to Soc Sec workers in particular. You get a step raise every year for a while and then every two years even if you do not get promoted to another grade. What I found LUDICROUS was back when their was no cost of living increase for all of the Soc Sec recipients. That means no equal raise for gov't employees. However, all of Congress voted to give themselves a raise and listen to this- No cost of living increase for Soc Sec workers (1 1/2% - 3%) but all were given either raises or step raises ( I personally, at the time, got a 10% raise). Since was allowed to contribute up to 5% of my check into a pension fund which they matched dollar for dollar actually got even more than that as I took full advantage to put in as much as was allowed). Seems like a long time ago but when I hear Mr. C. speaking, nothing seems to have changed. Don't get me started on the early out bonus. Good workers (the ones who could/would/and did) get other jobs - these were the people doing the work. The ones who could not have gotten a decent other job due to they basically are lazy, do not very much, are locked in and enjoying getting that check for doing about nothing - they stayed. AND then got PROMOTED to replace the hard working individuals who left. Amazing. ---------- > From: David F. Cameron > To: canslim@mail.xmission.com > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] The Economy? > Date: Wednesday, April 16, 1997 10:22 AM > > >> basically NOTHING SPECIAL, just being there, showing up, never have any > > great ideas, never cause any trouble, just doing what you are told in a > > "preferably" average mode you will get a 10% raise at least every two > > years. > > This is not true in my neck of the woods. For most of my friends, 3% > a year is the standard for corporate america. > > Dave ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Hemant Rotithor Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Fw: TC2000 Date: 16 Apr 1997 12:05:22 -0400 Brenda wrote: > > I originally sent this to only Peter but am forwarding it to the group due > to the posts that seem to be appearing about TC2000 not having good > scanning capabilities. Just what is it that it does NOT do. The following link has pointers to some articles comparing TC2000 and Quotes plus and can provide more information. http://www.geocities.com/WallStreet/8348/bestqp.htm -- Disclaimer: Opinions expressed in this document are those of the author. Digital Equipment Corp., 110 Spit Brook Rd, ZKO2-3/N30, Nashua, NH 03062 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Brenda" Subject: [CANSLIM] All In/All Out/nibling? Date: 16 Apr 1997 11:25:14 -0500 Mr. O'Neil's word carry 10,000 times the weight (very conservative estimate) as mine do. I have noticed the great number of you who are out and "waiting". I certainly understand but have the following comments. The majority of investors usually get out somewhere near the bottom, wait for conditions to improve, and then generally get back in once "things are better" and get in usually after much of the upward move has been completed and near the top. Think Mr. O'Neil even mentions this fact. What I am fixing to do is a little out of character and I may jinx ALL of these stocks and most are NOT CANSLIM stocks but me and ALL of the accounts I manage are currently ALL IN. Here is a list of ALL of the stocks in the accounts and how they stood as of 11 am CST today. ALTR down 1 5/8. About 3 dollars away from stop loss point, AMD up 5/8, ASTSF up 1/2, CPB up 5/8, ESS up 3/8, GDYS up 1/8, MFN ($2.38) up 1/4, MLHR up 1 1/2 (really 3 since split 2 for 1 effective today), PSUN down 1 stop loss is 29 1/8 and now 32 1/4, SRR even, TUES down 3/4 just got closed out at 29 3/8 now 29, WBPR up 1/2, SFDS up 1/8, USLD down 3/16 stop loss is 10 1/8 currently 11 7/16, QCSB up 1/8 just split 3 for 2 several days ago, OFCP up 1/4, MWL up 1 1/2, MK (12 1/4) down 1/4 and watching this one pretty closely. If this helps anybody GREAT. Once again, this is a very, very, very TOUGH market. But, then I have never found making money in the market an "easy" thing to do. Have a good day. Hope I didn't jink them all!!!! James ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Brenda" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Fw: TC2000 Date: 16 Apr 1997 11:32:53 -0500 Wow! What a long file. Scrolled down and never did see the bottom of it. Tried to read some of the comments comparing the two. Told me I needed to register first. No problem until it told me needed to send in $45. In the blind? I just wanted to read some of the comments comparing it to TC2000. James ---------- > From: Hemant Rotithor > To: canslim@mail.xmission.com > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Fw: TC2000 > Date: Wednesday, April 16, 1997 11:05 AM > > > The following link has pointers to some articles comparing TC2000 and > Quotes plus and can provide more information. > > http://www.geocities.com/WallStreet/8348/bestqp.htm > > -- > Disclaimer: Opinions expressed in this document are those of the author. > Digital Equipment Corp., 110 Spit Brook Rd, ZKO2-3/N30, Nashua, NH 03062 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Peter P. Newell" Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] VectorVest Date: 16 Apr 1997 13:24 -0400 (EDT) Being a computer consultant I agree on the VB comment. The new version, which is what I have seems to work well no crashes only 1 years worth of data weekly and daily for last 3 months, I had one problem which was fixed quickly. They call me every week to make sure everything is going well, which is better than Windows on Wallstreet which I found terrible and their support was just as bad. I am checking out DG (paper version). < Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] WON at Berkeley Marriot Date: 16 Apr 1997 13:23:46 -0400 (EDT) Dan, At 04:08 AM 4/16/97 GMT, you wrote: >P.S. Going to see WON at Berkeley, Marriot Saturday. If you get a chance, please give us a summary or your impressions or notes. He says lot's of the standard intro to CANSLIM things each time (naturally), but there are always a few new tidbits that I pick up. So, anything that strikes you as interesting would probably be the same to others on the list. Thanks in advance. Regards, Craig ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Craig Griffin Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] pix (was re: Intros Revisited) Date: 16 Apr 1997 13:23:44 -0400 (EDT) James, At 10:27 AM 4/16/97 -0500, you wrote: >He went from 100% long to 200% short on the exact day of the top on the S&P >500 - Feb 18th) - per the show. States he sees 50% decline in the market >and it should go down for next 1 1/2 to 3(?) years. Not much of a historian >or else O'Neil isn't. ... Enjoyed this post. I think Mr. O'Neil would say he is calling them based on the odds as he sees them now. He tends to say things like "odds are we are in a correction now" or "odds are this is a normal bear market". So I am only partially putting words in his mouth. His technique is to read the market daily and if it signals a change in trend, he reverses his position also. He lets the market tell him daily what it is doing. Mr. Crawford (is he the astrologer?) tends to make absolute types of calls. And be more definite in his opinion. Seems like O'Neil says that the average bear market is about 9 months. There was a bear in the 73-74 that lasted 2 years, although I had no money to invest then, so I missed it :) & :(. There is a chart of the S&P for that bear mkt at the following http://lowrisk.com/7374bear.htm . Anything is possible, but the economy does not look awful as you pointed out and the future does not look too bad either. If Greenspan is once again taking about the right action at about the right time in the current climate, we should see the bull resume in 2 to 9 months IMHO. Craig ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Michael A Langston Subject: [CANSLIM] good old arch (was re: pix) Date: 16 Apr 1997 13:29:25 -0400 >> anyone catch arch crawford this am on cnbc? -- i only >> caught a snippet... > He went from 100% long to 200% short on the exact day of > the top on the S&P 500 - Feb 18th) - per the show. i saw him predict the exact top at least two weeks before 18 feb -- could be partially self-fulfilling given his following, but even so it's pretty amazing! > States he sees 50% decline in the market > and it should go down for next 1 1/2 to 3(?) years. sounds like he hasn't changed his tone lately then > Not much of a historian > or else O'Neil isn't. Which is right? i have no idea, but to paraphrase the big O: experts generally disagree at market inflection points > if he is right on this one he won't have any newsletter. > Investor desert the ship (newsletter subscriptions) in bad > times now waitaminit james, if his followers are short with him then (if he's right) they'll be enjoying good times, not bad > All of those "type" indicators still the same old story -- but surely he mentioned the stars, no? > Granville going bullish was a terrible thing for the bulls yep, joe and elaine, what a pair mike ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Joseph Vaughn-Perling Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] Intros Revisited Date: 16 Apr 1997 10:47:17 -0700 ------ =_NextPart_000_01BC4A53.90E551A0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="us-ascii" Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit I'd be happy to offer my services for this if there are no other takers. I can (will) set up pages for this if you send me the info. (I own an ISP + Web servers.) http://www.shango.com -----Original Message----- Sent: Wednesday, April 16, 1997 6:22 AM Cc: dfc@stat.nielsen.com Last week's talk on introductions made me think of something that is done in another group I'm in. On the server which sorts and sends the messages, a web site was set up to hold a few pertinent facts about each member. Ideas here could be name, investing experience, field of work, and anything else you wanted to share. Since I've been on this group since day 3 - I've saved everyone's intro if they posted one. In fact, I urged people to send them early on - kinda like Tom is now - but not for very long. Anyway, Jeff, could this be done. If not, would anyone find it worthwhile - I could send the intros - but I can't set up a home page. Dave Cameron dcameron@harper.cc.il.us p.s I chekced out mike l's and zoran's home page pix. Mike - you've gotta get an updated picture - it looks like a refugee from 1979. Zoran - where do you find time to learn all that's on your resume!?! And yes, I've met Zoran - the picture does look like him. ------ =_NextPart_000_01BC4A53.90E551A0 Content-Type: application/ms-tnef Content-Transfer-Encoding: base64 eJ8+IhcRAQaQCAAEAAAAAAABAAEAAQeQBgAIAAAA5AQAAAAAAADoAAEIgAcAGAAAAElQTS5NaWNy b3NvZnQgTWFpbC5Ob3RlADEIAQ2ABAACAAAAAgACAAEEkAYA0AEAAAEAAAAQAAAAAwAAMAIAAAAL AA8OAAAAAAIB/w8BAAAAUQAAAAAAAACBKx+kvqMQGZ1uAN0BD1QCAAAAAGNhbnNsaW1AbWFpbC54 bWlzc2lvbi5jb20AU01UUABjYW5zbGltQG1haWwueG1pc3Npb24uY29tAAAAAB4AAjABAAAABQAA AFNNVFAAAAAAHgADMAEAAAAaAAAAY2Fuc2xpbUBtYWlsLnhtaXNzaW9uLmNvbQAAAAMAFQwBAAAA AwD+DwYAAAAeAAEwAQAAABwAAAAnY2Fuc2xpbUBtYWlsLnhtaXNzaW9uLmNvbScAAgELMAEAAAAf AAAAU01UUDpDQU5TTElNQE1BSUwuWE1JU1NJT04uQ09NAAADAAA5AAAAAAsAQDoBAAAAHgD2XwEA AAAaAAAAY2Fuc2xpbUBtYWlsLnhtaXNzaW9uLmNvbQAAAAIB918BAAAAUQAAAAAAAACBKx+kvqMQ GZ1uAN0BD1QCAAAAAGNhbnNsaW1AbWFpbC54bWlzc2lvbi5jb20AU01UUABjYW5zbGltQG1haWwu eG1pc3Npb24uY29tAAAAAAMA/V8BAAAAAwD/XwAAAAACAfYPAQAAAAQAAAAAAAACwWgBBIABAB8A AABSRTogW0NBTlNMSU1dIEludHJvcyBSZXZpc2l0ZWQAHgoBBYADAA4AAADNBwQAEAAKAC8AEQAD ADUBASCAAwAOAAAAzQcEABAACgAsABUAAwA2AQEJgAEAIQAAADcwODc1MDk0QzhCMUQwMTE4MDgx MDAwMEY4MDJGOEQzANIGAQOQBgA8CAAAIQAAAAsAAgABAAAACwAjAAAAAAADACYAAAAAAAsAKQAA AAAAAwAuAAAAAAADADYAAAAAAEAAOQBgrL45jkq8AR4AcAABAAAAHwAAAFJFOiBbQ0FOU0xJTV0g SW50cm9zIFJldmlzaXRlZAAAAgFxAAEAAAAWAAAAAbxKjjmhlFCHcbHIEdCAgQAA+AL40wAAHgAe DAEAAAAFAAAAU01UUAAAAAAeAB8MAQAAABIAAABKb3NlcGhAc2hhbmdvLmNvbQAAAAMABhAsXUgV AwAHEB0EAAAeAAgQAQAAAGUAAABJREJFSEFQUFlUT09GRkVSTVlTRVJWSUNFU0ZPUlRISVNJRlRI RVJFQVJFTk9PVEhFUlRBS0VSU0lDQU4oV0lMTClTRVRVUFBBR0VTRk9SVEhJU0lGWU9VU0VORE1F VEhFSU5GAAAAAAIBCRABAAAAGwUAABcFAABlBwAATFpGdVbckQd3AAoBAwH3IAKkA+MCAGOCaArA c2V0MCAHE4cCgwBQDvZwcnEyD/YmfQqACMggOwlvMjVmNQKACoF1YwBQCwNjAwBBC2BuZzEwMzMB C6YgSSdkIGJlAiAPgHBweSB0b8wgbwEgBJAgbRcQD7BwcnZpYweRAhAFwHT6aAQAIAaQGLEEkBaw CsCdFrBuF0EZQhcgYWsEkIxzLgqiCoBJIGMDkWIoA/BsbCkX4QVAddRwIAqwZxhdeQhgF+FebhaA B4AZMhkAbgIQLmYgG5AbQG93A6ADkUkAU1AgKyBXZWK7F+Maoika5AxgAyBoAkAgcDovL3ch8C5z 7w+AFXAe0AWgbSFBAUAg9MMjLwr0bGkzNgFAFRArIwEDYHQFkHQQhDE21CAtJpJPBRBnC4AHQPsF 0AeQcxyRJpMjdiWkIwODCzElpmktMTQ0AUDxJPAxODABQAzQKjMgMCpGA2E6DINiD+BEYcsYIBaA Rh7gQ2EHgANgAQOgW1NNVFA6ZGsbYC0DQA+BcASQIpBjwi4DEC51c10g5SAwTwZgAjArxyAQZG4H kGT4YXksD/ARQAMRJmAxQAAxOTk3IDY6MmURcU0vV1RvK8cbYXOZJPBtQADALvF4bQQBTmkCICKT L2ZDYyvHZEkPYEBzAZB0LgMAZYZsHeE1W1N1Ymol0QErx1tDQU5TTEk8TV0WUAIwA2AEIFJl/xgg AJAlwAsxKF8paCT0C7ZJGvNMYTcQIHcJ4GvmJwQgAZBsaxdQA6ALgPU6YWQUgHQ1IQQgAMABAO8e JAuAPzEZIHMDcA/AQPG+ZxrkGMA3MBkABCBkAiB/HoIfcRoUCcAIYBxgFmBt8x6RHuEgTwOgHmIg VD6A/xjQD3Aa5EFwACAEIABwFoBfHeI+4R5xB4EnonMxQGH/PoEgMTsBPoA+UBwGFzAa5P5oBvAW gEhQF4AH4C6BQAC/MOACMBhwANBGogbgdQVAemUA0GgeIQbQLpEjekn/AQBJERlTBaAhUBaDJzAH gL8xQAuAIIA3EEHRTDB4LoH9CJBuGEAxQCoAN4AWgBdgdRrkdwWwa0gxHgEAcHn/QbNMMDeRHZNJ AAIwCYAXIvciMQlwTPtTC4AYQBZRIID/FpEJ8D9CGMND5ACQVUIxEfwgMyaAVXQnoCCAOzU6wH8E kB2gMOA+0T+DGQUXEHD/OoBTkkLxRKI6QEtzMUAbQO8IcBygOzUugG8LUB5BU+HPHfIZQURgTEBy bBcQLTHtV8BrC4AxECAk8BqQM0HfRGEEIBngB+AoJWJMEUNxrxhzWPJe8AIgZ0z7QVJQ+0kAMTFK ARExQE50GMMWof9C4lsTGSBDcTFAUaBOklJBf0LxGuQqAB4BOwBlQQAgaP9FwVzxV8FOZV1WP3QE IFfA7WBySRrkG2EnBUAcFUhQ/0owHjEcgkz7LFEWsCzlGuT/Lc8u1SN/XKAiIFsiG1AZUL5rGEBR AUwRNOBfIWw+0X1G0noFsGohTgFrFhxwafp4GtVNXxJXwB2hVZIicP8CQEhQHKAFQAORHFAxEFOS P3NQJeAIcGeCZsEJAG9rz271XwNIUAlwZnUcoBaw0wNSMfE3OUSiWnJCV7H/RcAZYkLgHZNmckIF B3EXIv9c8ArAH2Eb0BixNzA+0S0xJx2hBcAJcHN1B4AhP/YhYjYWgHlIElWDQZF5V38eYnYmQuAH kXbyXvQY0G0XTPsa5BIBAINAAAMAEBAAAAAAAwAREAEAAAADAIAQ/////0AABzCA3MjQjUq8AUAA CDCA3MjQjUq8AQsAAYAIIAYAAAAAAMAAAAAAAABGAAAAAAOFAAAAAAAAAwAFgAggBgAAAAAAwAAA AAAAAEYAAAAAUoUAALcNAAAeAAaACCAGAAAAAADAAAAAAAAARgAAAABUhQAAAQAAAAQAAAA4LjAA AwAHgAggBgAAAAAAwAAAAAAAAEYAAAAAAYUAAAAAAAALABCACCAGAAAAAADAAAAAAAAARgAAAAAO hQAAAAAAAAMAEYAIIAYAAAAAAMAAAAAAAABGAAAAABCFAAAAAAAAAwASgAggBgAAAAAAwAAAAAAA AEYAAAAAEYUAAAAAAAADABWACCAGAAAAAADAAAAAAAAARgAAAAAYhQAAAAAAAB4AJYAIIAYAAAAA AMAAAAAAAABGAAAAADaFAAABAAAAAQAAAAAAAAAeACaACCAGAAAAAADAAAAAAAAARgAAAAA3hQAA AQAAAAEAAAAAAAAAHgAngAggBgAAAAAAwAAAAAAAAEYAAAAAOIUAAAEAAAABAAAAAAAAAB4APQAB AAAABQAAAFJFOiAAAAAAAwANNP03AABGHA== ------ =_NextPart_000_01BC4A53.90E551A0-- ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Michael A Langston Subject: re: [CANSLIM] All In/All Out/nibling? Date: 16 Apr 1997 13:51:42 -0400 > I have noticed the great number of you who are out > and "waiting". maybe we need to clarify that james -- my read is that many canslim players (actually, most all the good ones i know) have their *trading* accounts in cash, or at least protected to some extent with puts/shorts/etc > majority of investors usually get out somewhere near the bottom exactly -- this is why *other* accounts, for example long term fund accounts, retirement accounts, utma accounts and so forth are mostly still long -- at least mine are, and i'm assuming the same for other players w/ a long time horizon -- these sort of accounts aren't canslim, and so aren't subject to stop-loss rules and so forth -- to again paraphrase the big O: most investors really oughta just use funds, dca in, and buy more whenever a fund drops by 25% or more > I have never found making money in the market an "easy" thing > to do. i dunno, i think the last few years have been "easy" at least on a purely relative basis -- i know i'll never forget 72-74, and for all i know we could be ready for another bear like that (i'm not calling such a thing, just observing that it's hard to guess a bottom) mike ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Craig Griffin Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Self test of information learned Date: 16 Apr 1997 14:22:05 -0400 (EDT) Louis, Re: MACD (Macdermid)'s b/o in October. The actual pivot point for what is essentially a flat base pattern looks like 24 to me. So one would have wanted to buy it as close to 24 as possible on the day in which it passed that point with 150%+ ADV (average daily volume). Therefore with some luck you would catch it at about 24 1/2 on that day. The stop loss of 8% is from your purchase price. After you get ahead in a stock, you do not move the stop up to follow it (ie. no trailing stop per se). At the least one needs to give them more room than 8%. Many b/o's move up 10%, then correct 8% from there before moving on up (in which case you would get stopped out at breakeven). After you get ahead by 10% or so in a stock, then O'Neil's selling pointers come into effect. See pgs 103 to 106 in HTMMIS. Typically several of these ennumerated points will be flashing yellow or red when it is time to sell. The actual time to sell would have been when the stock got wide and loose around Nov 18 - 19. This coincides with your selling selection based on 8% out of coincidence because of the way the stock moved up. Take a look at INTC (Intel)'s advance since mid 96. You will see several 8-10% pullbacks on the way up. But I suspect the actual sell signal was those two high volume down days on 2/5 and 2/6 (which also coincided with the first rally failure following the climax top on 1/23 in the NASDAQ). In general, I can see you are beginning to pick up the core concepts. Just thought I would nudge you in my preferred direction on one or two issues. Unfortunately, many others in this group would have slightly differing opinions on the above and I can't say they are any less right than me. CANSLIM is a practice or an art, not an absolute science. Regards, Craig ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Peter Christiansen Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Self test of information learned Date: 17 Apr 1997 02:06:37 GMT+7 ** Reply to note from Craig Griffin Wed, 16 Apr 1997 14:22:05 -0400 (EDT) > In general, I can see you are beginning to pick up the core concepts. Just > thought I would nudge you in my preferred direction on one or two issues. > Unfortunately, many others in this group would have slightly differing > opinions on the above and I can't say they are any less right than me. > CANSLIM is a practice or an art, not an absolute science. Concerning stops & when to sell: I generally prefer David Ryan's method of keeping a trailing stop placed below the last "stair step" as the stock moves up. I usually wait for the stock to correct at least 7%, and then get close to making a new high before I move the stop up. This is a method advocated by Stan Weinstein, and it suits me pretty well. Peter Christiansen Bangkok, Thailand Connected with OS/2 Warp 3.0 & The Post Road Mailer _____________________________________________________________________________________ What do you mean you "formatted the cat"?!?! ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Brenda" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] All In/All Out/nibling? Date: 16 Apr 1997 14:36:52 -0500 I guess it might be "easy" to just "make money". However, for me my goal each and every month is up a NET 10% profit. If I only achieve half of that for up 5% that keeps me on track for what I have done since 1990. I NEVER want to have ANY SINGLE 24 consecutive month period that 24 months later my capital is not DOUBLE what is was 24 months previous. Have been able to do and sustain that since Jan 1 1990. Yes, 1990 and 1994 were tough years. Most newletter writers will tell you that 1996 was NOT a "cakewalk" as many refer to. If your base of stocks is large enough just start with AA and look at one after the other. Notice not slight corrections, declines, sideway moves, etc but watch for disasters! Big disasters! They are all over the board and now have been VERY COMMONPLACE. It does not even raise the eyebrows anymore to see a CLFY (used to be $50) to be down more today than it's current price. That's right stocks down MORE than the price that remains left. And it's no longer even considered to be unusual. That is the market we are in and it DID NOT just start sometime around Jan of this year. It started way, way before that. Guess I set my sights a little high but I have always wanted and strived to be number one and number two is just not very satisfying. James ---------- > From: Michael A Langston > To: canslim@mail.xmission.com > Subject: re: [CANSLIM] All In/All Out/nibling? > Date: Wednesday, April 16, 1997 12:51 PM > > > I have noticed the great number of you who are out > > and "waiting". > > maybe we need to clarify that james -- my read is that many > canslim players (actually, most all the good ones i know) > have their *trading* accounts in cash, or at least protected > to some extent with puts/shorts/etc > > > majority of investors usually get out somewhere near the bottom > > exactly -- this is why *other* accounts, for example long term > fund accounts, retirement accounts, utma accounts and so forth > are mostly still long -- at least mine are, and i'm assuming the > same for other players w/ a long time horizon -- these sort of > accounts aren't canslim, and so aren't subject to stop-loss rules > and so forth -- to again paraphrase the big O: most investors > really oughta just use funds, dca in, and buy more whenever a > fund drops by 25% or more > > > I have never found making money in the market an "easy" thing > > to do. > > i dunno, i think the last few years have been "easy" at least > on a purely relative basis -- i know i'll never forget 72-74, > and for all i know we could be ready for another bear like that > (i'm not calling such a thing, just observing that it's hard > to guess a bottom) > > mike ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Craig Griffin Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Self test of information learned Date: 16 Apr 1997 14:01:37 -0600 Louis, Sender: owner-canslim@xmission.com Precedence: bulk Reply-To: canslim Re: MACD (Macdermid)'s b/o in October. The actual pivot point for what is essentially a flat base pattern looks like 24 to me. So one would have wanted to buy it as close to 24 as possible on the day in which it passed that point with 150%+ ADV (average daily volume). Therefore with some luck you would catch it at about 24 1/2 on that day. The stop loss of 8% is from your purchase price. After you get ahead in a stock, you do not move the stop up to follow it (ie. no trailing stop per se). At the least one needs to give them more room than 8%. Many b/o's move up 10%, then correct 8% from there before moving on up (in which case you would get stopped out at breakeven). After you get ahead by 10% or so in a stock, then O'Neil's selling pointers come into effect. See pgs 103 to 106 in HTMMIS. Typically several of these ennumerated points will be flashing yellow or red when it is time to sell. The actual time to sell would have been when the stock got wide and loose around Nov 18 - 19. This coincides with your selling selection based on 8% out of coincidence because of the way the stock moved up. Take a look at INTC (Intel)'s advance since mid 96. You will see several 8-10% pullbacks on the way up. But I suspect the actual sell signal was those two high volume down days on 2/5 and 2/6 (which also coincided with the first rally failure following the climax top on 1/23 in the NASDAQ). In general, I can see you are beginning to pick up the core concepts. Just thought I would nudge you in my preferred direction on one or two issues. Unfortunately, many others in this group would have slightly differing opinions on the above and I can't say they are any less right than me. CANSLIM is a practice or an art, not an absolute science. Regards, Craig ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Brenda" Subject: [CANSLIM] CLCX Date: 16 Apr 1997 18:41:32 -0500 Whose got the "good stuff" on this one? James ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Joseph Vaughn-Perling Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] DailyGraphs Online Date: 16 Apr 1997 16:59:37 -0700 ------ =_NextPart_000_01BC4A87.9206C990 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable I just went to the site http://www.dailygraphs.com and clicked on the = beta test link, downloaded the software and registered. (They do ask = for a good bit of information to register). About 5 minutes later I = received my usercode via email. Since I am an "unofficial" beta tester = I don't know how long my user code will work but it does work, and you = are right, the information is excellent. My guess is that they are = postponing the official release and opening up the beta testing. -----Original Message----- Sent: Wednesday, April 16, 1997 4:56 AM DG Online is currently in Beta testing, last word I had was that they expected to be commercially available around mid-April, but no announcement yet and at least one group member called DG and the sales person knew nothing, so probably not ready yet. Cost is about the same as the books, but you get all stocks, not just the ones in the book, altho you don't get as much info on a stock not in the books. Just recently they added another 4 qtrs of earnings and sales data. The other benefit is that you get updated price and volume on the charts throughout the week. You also get current "market trend" charts. tom w ---------- > From: Peter Christiansen > To: canslim@mail.xmission.com > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] DailyGraphs Online > Date: Wednesday, April 16, 1997 9:28 AM >=20 > Daily Graphs online??? Where can I get more information about this? I have searched > all over the web, and came up empty handed. 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Callahan" Subject: [CANSLIM] Daily Graphs on-line Date: 16 Apr 1997 18:17:16 -0700 Would somebody comment on the search capabilities of DG on line. I understood that the on-line product would allow you to search the database(green or blue book) by the criteria you're interested in e.g. rs >= 85 & eps >=90 and allow you to download the result of your search to Excel for further manipulation. I've downloaded the daily graph program but haven't registered because the 800# on the payment tab is bogus...it belongs to an individual. Makes me think we(DG) hasn't totally arrived yet. Would appreciate hearing from those with experience...thanks ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Patrick Toy" Subject: [CANSLIM] new member Date: 16 Apr 1997 21:19:40 -0400 Hello everyone. My name is Patrick. I am currently in the U.S. Navy and am an instructor at Nuclear Power School in Orlando, Florida. I have always had a fond interest in the market and just recently completed several books on technical analysis and of course...HTMMIS. Right now, I probably don't have too much to offer, but I learn quickly. I have been a member here for about 1 week and am pleased with the discussions I have been able to observe. Thanks for having me. Patrick ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Michael A Langston Subject: re: [CANSLIM] Daily Graphs on-line Date: 16 Apr 1997 21:47:44 -0400 > Makes me think we(DG) hasn't totally arrived yet. no kidding -- last i heard, it's still not even intended to be machine-independent -- thus, for example, those here on unix boxes will be totally frozen out -- duh! mike ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] DailyGraphs Online Date: 16 Apr 1997 21:42:37 -0400 Haven't tried to d/l any charts other than to my printer. Don't know if it can be done nor have seen that option available. Likewise have seen no option in the beta version for using filters altho there are lists of top RS, etc stocks. If you don't do something for a relatively short time period, you are "disconnected" however you can reconnect, or just do something, and are reconnected in seconds. tom w ---------- > From: Peter Christiansen > To: canslim@mail.xmission.com > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] DailyGraphs Online > Date: Wednesday, April 16, 1997 5:50 PM > > VERY interesting. Do you know if the data stays on their server? In other words, > do you have to stay connected while you browse through the charts, or can you do that > off line? ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Michael A Langston Subject: re: [CANSLIM] new member Date: 16 Apr 1997 22:02:09 -0400 > Hello everyone. My name is Patrick. I am currently in the > U.S. Navy and am an instructor at Nuclear Power School... welcome aboard patrick -- this is probably a good time to learn the ropes while canslim is out of favor -- you've read o'neil, that's a great start -- if you have the time, you might also wanna ck out ian woodward over at aol or telescan too for more on canslim/HGS investing mike p.s. have had several friends go thru annapolis, and a couple who i believe went through your school too -- but i probably learned more about subs from "the hunt for red october" than from them :) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Intros Revisited Date: 16 Apr 1997 21:54:25 -0400 Sounds like the combo of all the comments equals a solution. I personally think, due the nr of new members checking in, that having a single source for existing members of "intro" data would be helpful, at least then in times of curiousity or controversy, they could check out the background anyway. Beats having to report intros periodically as well. What about a "free registration" when joining the group to load the data into a DBS format? Don't register, you don't get to lurk. Maybe majordomo could then do the intro for the bashful? BTW, hopefully I didn't open a Pandora's Box, but one of my brokers who is investing using CANSLIM finally wore me down today into giving him the address to join. His name is Luis Torres, so if you see him here, be gentle, he is sincerely trying to improve his skills. tom w ---------- > From: Joseph Vaughn-Perling > To: 'canslim@mail.xmission.com' > Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] Intros Revisited > Date: Wednesday, April 16, 1997 1:47 PM > > I'd be happy to offer my services for this if there are no other takers. > I can (will) set up pages for this if you send me the info. (I own an ISP + Web servers.) > http://www.shango.com > ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] new member Date: 16 Apr 1997 21:57:21 -0400 Welcome, Patrick, even if you are a squid! (I'm an ex shallow water sailor, so get to say that). Glad to have you aboard. tom w ---------- > From: Patrick Toy > To: canslim@xmission.com > Subject: [CANSLIM] new member > Date: Wednesday, April 16, 1997 9:19 PM > > Hello everyone. My name is Patrick. I am currently in the U.S. Navy and > am an instructor at Nuclear Power School in Orlando, Florida. I have ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] pix (was re: Intros Revisited) Date: 16 Apr 1997 22:03:12 -0400 Mike, having been thru a typhoon at sea in the Pacific, why on earth do you like white water rafting? OK, so you are a thrill seeker, then why aren't you in this mkt instead of some puny t-bills? What, no risk when it comes to money? Well, guess we know what counts now, huh? Oh, well, hang in there, least it looks like you and the family are enjoying themselves. tom w ---------- > From: Michael A Langston > To: canslim@mail.xmission.com > Subject: [CANSLIM] pix (was re: Intros Revisited) > Date: Wednesday, April 16, 1997 11:14 AM > > you fellas clearly have too much time on your hands -- if you've > got the bandwidth too, here's a pic of my family and me whitewater > rafting in alaska -- and it's only a coupla-three years old, what > a deal -- this was snapped just out of denali nat'l park -- i think > the guide (in blue) liked having his pic taken more than anyone > else did :) > http://kenner.cs.utk.edu/~langston/gifs/raft.gif > > meanwhile, getting back to canslim, i'm still mostly in t-bills, ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Michael A Langston Subject: re: [CANSLIM] CLCX Date: 16 Apr 1997 22:10:04 -0400 > Whose got the "good stuff" on this one? no news headlines i can find, but i think i heard that they were rumored to be a suitor in a buyout scheme -- somebody obviously knows something that's not on the newswires...mike ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] pix (was re: Intros Revisited) Date: 16 Apr 1997 22:06:11 -0400 ---------- > From: Craig Griffin > To: canslim@mail.xmission.com > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] pix (was re: Intros Revisited) > Date: Wednesday, April 16, 1997 1:23 PM > > that bear mkt at the following http://lowrisk.com/7374bear.htm . Anything > is possible, but the economy does not look awful as you pointed out and the > future does not look too bad either. If Greenspan is once again taking > about the right action at about the right time in the current climate, we > should see the bull resume in 2 to 9 months IMHO. > > Craig > ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] pix (was re: Intros Revisited) Date: 16 Apr 1997 22:13:37 -0400 Craig, I still haven't seen anything, despite all the inflationary signals I am reading, that convinces me that we have or are about to embark on a true "bear" mkt. Yes, I am concerned about mkt behaviour, but still consider us to be in a correction. Yes, it is more severe than I projected about six weeks ago, but still a correction. And there are factual reasons for it being worse than I projected then. One new concern that I have, and saw another story on it tonight which increases my concern, is the attempt by the Democrats to turn the Fed into another political tool. Now they are demanding hearings on the hill BEFORE the Feds raise rates again, in order to hear the justification by the Feds for the last hike. Anyone who hasn't figured that one out by now from subsequent economic reports has the iq of a turtle and should just tuck his head back into his shell (oooppsss, forgot I was talking about Congress, they already did that!). If the politicians manage to subjugate the independence of the Fed to act, then forget economic policy and stable growth with low inflation. Remember that the House is up for election every two years. How would you like Fed policy dictated by election cycles? Act now and let you political reps know how you feel.If they manage to win this struggle, I'm joining Mike in t-bills, and they may not even be safe after that! tom w ---------- > From: Craig Griffin > To: canslim@mail.xmission.com > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] pix (was re: Intros Revisited) > Date: Wednesday, April 16, 1997 1:23 PM > > that bear mkt at the following http://lowrisk.com/7374bear.htm . Anything > is possible, but the economy does not look awful as you pointed out and the > future does not look too bad either. If Greenspan is once again taking > about the right action at about the right time in the current climate, we > should see the bull resume in 2 to 9 months IMHO. > > Craig > ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Michael A Langston Subject: re: [CANSLIM] pix (was re: Intros Revisited) Date: 16 Apr 1997 22:28:20 -0400 > Mike, having been thru a typhoon at sea in the Pacific, why on > earth do you like white water rafting? OK, so you are a thrill > seeker not me tom, my kids -- my idea of a thrill is when the island girl brings me my mai tai :) > then why aren't you in this mkt instead of some puny > t-bills? oh i'm in allright, see my earlier response to james about retirement/utma/etc accounts -- it's my trading account that's getting the whopping 5.5% from uncle sugar rather than 3% from brown -- i know, after taxes i might as well put it in the mattress -- but when HGS are choppy it's time either to sit in front of r-t quotes all day or trim the sails > What, no risk when it comes to money? Well, guess we know > what counts now, huh? yep -- btw it's a damn shame heaven's gate already left spaceship earth -- i just had my pre-op! > Oh, well, hang in there, least it looks like > you and the family are enjoying themselves. good markets, bad markets, sideways markets -- that we can do mike ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] The Economy? Date: 16 Apr 1997 22:58:09 -0400 Wow, wish it wasn't so late, could talk on this the rest of the night, but gotta go for jury duty tomorrow at (oh god) 8AM! Least it should be a vacation from my regular job, and we managed to get the NASD municipals audit over with in a single day, so my boss can concentrate on doing my job instead of 18 other things. Civil service rules are anything but "corporate america". I think it's neat how Congress made it so very difficult to deal with incompetent or just lazy employees, then created its own rules exempt from CS for all its staff. Guess they must have known what they were doing, huh? The inefficiency and waste in govt (and I say this from having been a part for 17 years and observed for far longer) is so huge I can only imagine the billions we would save every year if it was run by corp america on a profit making basis. I have long held that every, I repeat EVERY, agency of the U.S. govt could easily accomodate a 5% cut across the board, and most a 10% cut, without any loss in service, benefit or support if it was run efficiently. Govt is now an occupation, not a service. And the latest move to hire 10,000 off of welfare to prove out the latest programs doesn't mean that the 10,000 most motivate and qualified will be hired, just 10,000 will be hired. Is inflation proven? To me, yes. To others, maybe not, certainly not to some members up on the Hill. I liken this issue to some of my older former clients who complained every time they rolled over a CD that they couldn't find as high a rate as before, and their realized income kept dropping. When I pointed out that inflation was also dropping, they didn't care because they didn't have to go out and buy a new home or car or other major purchase at ever increasing interest rates like those that had preceded. Granted I am measuring, and trying to anticipate (like Greenspan) signals of inflation in subtle ways. I am noting the continued drop in inventory at a time of rocketing consumer buying of both durables and non-durables. Do people already deeply in debt tend to spend even faster, ask any bankruptcy attorney. In some cases, they are borrowing on one credit card trying to keep up the payments on another, or the car, or the house, or buy food, or whatever. They really intend to pay it all back, just later. In other cases, they have already given up the good intentions and know that much of what they buy now they keep but don't have to pay for later. Either way, the debt just keeps growing (much like the Fed debt but with the difference that if they try printing more money they go to jail). You (and Rick if he is still with us) would probably be surprised at how unscientific I am in my economic assessments. I really do rely a lot on my "gut" feelings. As a widower, I do my own shopping so am aware of some of the "real" mkt conditions. Others, like the movies, I have only antecotal data for. Mostly, I review the many market and economic reports and try to draw a thread between what is happening statistically. I esp have found significance in noting whether the "economists reports" are being consistently revised up or down in the following months. Tells me their bias, if nothing else. I have also lived all over the USA and realize how different sentiment and spending habits can be in different parts of the country. This awareness was increased by having clients in about 15 different states, and I talked regularly to them about how things were going in their "neck of the woods". Christmas sales were not as robust as originally projected by the analysts, partially due (I think legitimately) to job insecurity (one of those things Greenspan is worried about). Revisions to retail sales reported for both Jan and Feb were significant, esp Feb. Q1 GDP is running way ahead of the Fed's model, I hope it shows a slowing soon. Inventories are very low, industrial production, esp of durables, showed a shocking increase today, capacity utilization near max, consumer spending continues at record levels, all of this makes me reflect on what happened to chip prices when demand outstripped supply short term. If you need me to get specific in the future about why I believe inflation pressure is here, and justify more specifically why I feel rate hikes are a necessary evil, I will. But don't judge inflation by last month's CPI, it's not real nor are the Feds acting or reacting to history, the key to understanding Fed action is to realize they are applying current economic reports to what, six to nine months before, they expected to see being reported. If it's too far out from their model, they respond. tom w ---------- > From: Brenda > To: canslim > Subject: [CANSLIM] The Economy? > Date: Wednesday, April 16, 1997 11:01 AM > > Tom, > Always read your posts with great interest. Got a question for you > concerning your view on the economy and your estimation that inflation is > HERE. Some thoughts piqued by guest on CNBC. "IF" inflation is here why the ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: musicant@autobahn.org (Dan Musicant) Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Fw: TC2000 Date: 17 Apr 1997 03:58:36 GMT On Wed, 16 Apr 1997 12:05:22 -0400, you wrote: :Brenda wrote: :>=20 :> I originally sent this to only Peter but am forwarding it to the group= due :> to the posts that seem to be appearing about TC2000 not having good :> scanning capabilities. Just what is it that it does NOT do.=20 : :The following link has pointers to some articles comparing TC2000 and :Quotes plus and can provide more information. : : http://www.geocities.com/WallStreet/8348/bestqp.htm : :--=20 :Disclaimer: Opinions expressed in this document are those of the author. :Digital Equipment Corp., 110 Spit Brook Rd, ZKO2-3/N30, Nashua, NH 03062 Very detailed and thought out material here. Go to the above URL. I checked out a few and clipped these: http://talk.techstocks.com/~wsapi/investor/s-9637/reply-220=20 http://talk.techstocks.com/~wsapi/investor/s-9637/reply-215 Dan ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: musicant@autobahn.org (Dan Musicant) Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] WON at Berkeley Marriot Date: 17 Apr 1997 04:02:39 GMT On Wed, 16 Apr 1997 13:23:46 -0400 (EDT), you wrote: :Dan, : :At 04:08 AM 4/16/97 GMT, you wrote: :>P.S. Going to see WON at Berkeley, Marriot Saturday. : :If you get a chance, please give us a summary or your impressions or = notes. :He says lot's of the standard intro to CANSLIM things each time = (naturally), :but there are always a few new tidbits that I pick up. So, anything that :strikes you as interesting would probably be the same to others on the = list. :Thanks in advance. : :Regards, :Craig I'll give it my best shot, and sum up (what I take to be) the more interesting and significant remarks -- probably Saturday evening. Dan ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Craig Griffin Subject: [CANSLIM] Recent Breakouts Date: 17 Apr 1997 01:39:55 -0400 (EDT) Here are a few for your amusement from the last few days (have not checked CANSLIM numbers in DG for any yet). Many are from yesterday. The '*'s represent those that look the most promising to me via VERY quick chart review. PS. Sorry, no time to list company names. PPS. Stock symbols are one per line to make it easy to cut and paste to your charting package (or Yahoo, etc). ann * bgg * bwa cag cat * cnf cvs dal * ds * ecl eroi flsc full hlx hsy * jos kea * kss * mavk * nhl orbkf rlm * rog * rxr slgn slm * swft * tmx ual usfc vc vtra wla * wn * (no real base since 21 - extended) The following look promising, but no breakout yet (there are lots and lots, will just list a few) ... ames * baanf * cln exam * f * gac invx * tg Have fun, Craig ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Peter Christiansen Subject: [CANSLIM] My List of Potential CANSLIM Buys Date: 17 Apr 1997 14:38:29 GMT+7 ** Reply to note from Craig Griffin Thu, 17 Apr 1997 01:39:55 -0400 (EDT) Below is my current list of of potential CANSLIM buys. They have yet to break out. Regardless of breakouts, I won't be doing any buying until the market confirms that the uptrend is intact. It is interesting that in a "good" market, my watch list is about five times this long. There just isn't anything out there that looks interesting to me. Any thoughts or comments on this list are welcome. ADEX ADSI ASVI BARR BYA CST EVI EZCIA HBCCA HH PLA TAM Peter Christiansen Bangkok, Thailand Connected with OS/2 Warp 3.0 & The Post Road Mailer _____________________________________________________________________________________ You can tell a real programmer by the keyboard dents in his forehead. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: pwahl@postoffice.worldnet.att.net Subject: [CANSLIM] ADE Corp Date: 16 Apr 1997 23:21:21 -0800 Here is a stock I dug up in the Daily Graphs that looks pretty good. Anyone have any comments to add, feel free... ADE Corp (ADEX) C - .38 vs .28 + 36% Jan. .37 vs .25 + 42% Nov. A - 1996 = $1.07 1997E = 1.45 + 36% N Don't know S 7.2 million shares, 3.6 float L Rel. Str is 93, EPS 96, Gr. RS is 94 I funds 24% M Pretty lousy I'd say. What caught my eye on this one initially was the base, which appears to be one of those cup and handle things. Left side would be the top formed in mid-June,1996. Has formed right side and handle for last few months. The catch might be that a cup shouldn't have a 50% retracement off the high. Pivot point looks like 20 3/4, that is, the high of the recent base. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Peter P. Newell" Subject: [CANSLIM] TC2000 Scanning Date: 17 Apr 1997 09:20 -0400 (EDT) Yesterday I said that Telescan 2000 doesn't have good scanning, actually it does but loading all the data is expensive compared to other pgms so that eliminates the ability to scan alot of stocks which is what I meant to say. Also it has no fundamentals but I am still using the package. Peter Newell ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Peter P. Newell" Subject: [CANSLIM] Chicago Class May 31 Date: 17 Apr 1997 09:17 -0400 (EDT) Anyone attending this class? Would you recommend it? Peter Newell ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Peter P. Newell" Subject: [CANSLIM] RE: Self test MACD Date: 17 Apr 1997 09:16 -0400 (EDT) > Selling Nov 18/19 would be exit point > In general, I can see you are beginning to pick up the core concepts. Just > thought I would nudge you in my preferred direction on one or two issues. > Unfortunately, many others in this group would have slightly differing > opinions on the above and I can't say they are any less right than me. > CANSLIM is a practice or an art, not an absolute science. :Novice opinion After rereviewing the numbers I would say Nov 18 would be premature since volume and price picked up but that Nov 19 @36.50 with a down price and the higher volume would have been ideal, but I wouldn't kick myself for taking 33. Peter Newell ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Peter P. Newell" Subject: [CANSLIM] Potential CANSLIM stocks - ASVI Date: 17 Apr 1997 09:31 -0400 (EDT) I bought ASVI @16 and sold it @22 it is really hanging in there considering its got a PE of 100 and no projected earnings available. I would definitely pick this one up if it starts moving. They have a new positrak system that is really taking off. Only question is can they 8x their earning quickly. Peter Newell ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Brenda" Subject: [CANSLIM] Craig/Peter Stock Selections Date: 17 Apr 1997 09:01:28 -0500 Good Morning Group! One of the reasons I initially subscribed to this group was to hopefully pick up a stock I was not familar with and also would share a few that I had found. This morning saw some stock selections to "watch" posted by Craig & Peter. I have pulled up ALL of them. In addition to the CANSLIM criteria I add something I call volatility. I grade a stock's volatility both long term and short term. I do this via their graph (aka price pattern). I grade the stock as if an 85 year old owned only the one stock and whether they eat or pay their rent depends on this one stock's performance. A high grade shows no volatility at all. A low grade..... bad news. The long term is basically how the graph's volatility looks for the last year and the short term ignores anything that has happened in the stock more than 30 days ago and only grades the most recent 30 days. My grading system is my own. It has been used since 1990. Personally, I prefer to only own stocks which grade out 95 of better in BOTH categories. An 80 long term is ok but short term, for me, just MUST be 90 or better. The grading system goes something like this in reference to the 85 year old. A grade of 90 or higher he never even knows he has a heart. A grade of 80 he knows his heart is there for an irregular flutter has occured but nothing major. A grade of 70 the flutters have become real regular and he has already been to the Doctor to have it checked out. A grade of 60 he has had a minor stoke or possible heart attack already. Depending on his personal stamina he may or may not have died. A grade of 50 almost all have already died. A few may have made it through alive but not many. Anything below 50 would be terminal for ALL. Well, you may not care for some of these grades but it is just ONE of the criteria I use to grade and evaluate stocks IN ADDITION to CANSLIM but when you think about it Mr. O'Neil does put a LOT of value into a stocks price pattern (aka graph picture). Stock Long Short ADEX 30 20 ADSI 70 45 AMES 85 70 ANN 65 75 ASVI 60 50 BAANF 62 55 BARR 78 68 BYA 70 25 BWA 55 85 BGG 55 85 CAT 75 25 CST 60 75 CLN 15 62 CAG 62 15 CNF 50 75 CVS 90 55 DS 90 86 DAL 45 68 ECL 78 75 EVI 72 75 EROI 68 90 EXAM 62 65 EZCIA 45 05 FLSC 82 82 FULL 88 78 GAC 10 78 HLX 50 60 HBCCA 35 55 HSY 30 65 HH 78 50 INVX 55 92 JOS 30 72 KEA 55 45 KSS 72 65 MAVK 84 92 NHL 45 90 ORBKF 62 68 PLA 25 72 RLM 80 55 ROG 60 80 SLGN 50 82 SLM 55 58 SWFT 78 85 TMX 80 68 TG 78 78 TAM 68 10 UAL 78 68 USFC 65 78 VTRA 92 68 VC 72 90 WLA 92 78 WN 78 75 There have been a couple of us who called MWL, including yours truly. 20 minutes into the opening it is one of a select group. Up another 1 1/8. Guess it would be too far extended now for most. However, I dollar cost average UP. When a stock advances I buy more of it, not sell any of it. Anybody else do that. When I find a winner I DO make a killing. Got to cover the disappointments somehow. Have a good day and be very, very careful in this market. The announcers on CNBC called for an UP open 30 seconds before it opened with ALL of their knowledge and indicators. Market opened down about 10. James ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "David F. Cameron" Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] Intros Revisited Date: 17 Apr 1997 10:01:49 CDT JVP wrote: > > I'd be happy to offer my services for this if there are no other takers. > I can (will) set up pages for this if you send me the info. (I own an ISP + Web servers.) > http://www.shango.com > > OK.... I'll dig up what I have and send it to you. If anyone would like to revise/repost an intro - please do so. Should I send to joseph@shango.com? Is ASCII file OK? Dave Cameron dcameron@harper.cc.il.us > > -----Original Message----- > From: David F. Cameron [SMTP:dcameron@harper.cc.il.us] > Sent: Wednesday, April 16, 1997 6:22 AM > To: canslim@mail.xmission.com > Cc: dfc@stat.nielsen.com > Subject: [CANSLIM] Intros Revisited > > Last week's talk on introductions made me think of something > that is done in another group I'm in. On the server which > sorts and sends the messages, a web site was set up to > hold a few pertinent facts about each member. > > Ideas here could be name, investing experience, field of > work, and anything else you wanted to share. > > Since I've been on this group since day 3 - I've saved > everyone's intro if they posted one. In fact, I urged > people to send them early on - kinda like Tom is now - > but not for very long. > > Anyway, Jeff, could this be done. If not, would anyone > find it worthwhile - I could send the intros - but I > can't set up a home page. > > Dave Cameron > dcameron@harper.cc.il.us > > > p.s I chekced out mike l's and zoran's home page pix. > Mike - you've gotta get an updated picture - it looks > like a refugee from 1979. 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Cameron" Subject: [CANSLIM] Federal Reserve Date: 17 Apr 1997 10:12:05 CDT I've been called on my position on the Federal Reserve through private e-mail. Since I originally posted to the group that I favor abolishing the Fed, I want to clarify (for the record). First an explanation of the term: "Federal Reserve": I think it is federal in the sense that it is run by people appointed by the President of the U.S. Federal Government and then approved by the U.S. Senate. It is "reserve" from the point of view of the banks, because its liabilities serve as reserves from their point of view. Initially banks transferred their gold reserves to the Federal Reserve. At this point, of course, gold reserves are irrelevant. Now a more coherent statement of my view: I favor having a fully privatized money system. The problem with the Federal Reserve isn't the private part of its quasi-private nature. It is rather the heavy role that government plays in the institution as well as the restrictions on competition in the issue of dollar- denominated currency. IMHO, the Fed needs to be fully privatized. This is no slight on Greenspan - more the slight of the potential for the govt. to monkey with the syste. Dave Cameron dcameron@harper.cc.il.us ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: jeff@scrooge.idec.sdl.usu.edu (Jeff Salisbury) Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] ADE Corp Date: 17 Apr 1997 09:55:04 -0600 Patrick, What is the Timeliness ranking for ADEX? Jeff On Apr 16, 11:21pm, pwahl@postoffice.worldnet.att.net wrote: > Subject: [CANSLIM] ADE Corp > Here is a stock I dug up in the Daily Graphs that looks pretty good. > Anyone have any comments to add, feel free... > > ADE Corp (ADEX) > > C - .38 vs .28 + 36% Jan. > .37 vs .25 + 42% Nov. > A - 1996 = $1.07 > 1997E = 1.45 + 36% > N Don't know > S 7.2 million shares, 3.6 float > L Rel. Str is 93, EPS 96, Gr. RS is 94 > I funds 24% > M Pretty lousy I'd say. > > What caught my eye on this one initially was the base, which appears > to be one of those cup and handle things. Left side would be the > top formed in mid-June,1996. Has formed right side and handle for > last few months. The catch might be that a cup shouldn't have a 50% > retracement off the high. Pivot point looks like 20 3/4, that is, > the high of the recent base. >-- End of excerpt from pwahl@postoffice.worldnet.att.net ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Hemant Rotithor Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Craig/Peter Stock Selections Date: 17 Apr 1997 11:41:35 -0400 Brenda wrote: > > Good Morning Group! > One of the reasons I initially subscribed to this group was to > hopefully pick up a stock I was not familar with and also would share a few > that I had found. This morning saw some stock selections to "watch" posted > by Craig & Peter. I have pulled up ALL of them. In addition to the CANSLIM > criteria I add something I call volatility. I grade a stock's volatility > both long term and short term. I do this via their graph (aka price > pattern). I grade the stock as if an 85 year old owned only the one stock > and whether they eat or pay their rent depends on this one stock's > performance. A high grade shows no volatility at all. A low grade..... bad > news. The long term is basically how the graph's volatility looks for the > last year and the short term ignores anything that has happened in the > stock more than 30 days ago and only grades the most recent 30 days. My > grading system is my own. It has been used since 1990. Personally, I prefer > to only own stocks which grade out 95 of better in BOTH categories. An 80 > long term is ok but short term, for me, just MUST be 90 or better. The > grading system goes something like this in reference to the 85 year old. A > grade of 90 or higher he never even knows he has a heart. A grade of 80 he > knows his heart is there for an irregular flutter has occured but nothing > major. A grade of 70 the flutters have become real regular and he has > already been to the Doctor to have it checked out. A grade of 60 he has had > a minor stoke or possible heart attack already. Depending on his personal > stamina he may or may not have died. A grade of 50 almost all have already > died. A few may have made it through alive but not many. Anything below 50 > would be terminal for ALL. Well, you may not care for some of these grades > but it is just ONE of the criteria I use to grade and evaluate stocks IN > ADDITION to CANSLIM but when you think about it Mr. O'Neil does put a LOT > of value into a stocks price pattern (aka graph picture). I am not sure from the above description how you find your volatility grade numbers but assume that higher the number, lower the volatility-desirable. Now my question is for long term volatility over one year is your system in resonance with CANSLIM? If a CANSLIM stock made a cup (say with a 50% dip in the cup part) and a handle chart, the price in the downward and upward part of the cup shows significant change and volatility (only in the handle would it show a stable price pattern), so would such a stock pass your volatility grade at all? if it does, would many other patterns that are volatile in a different way not pass the test too?(which may be undesirable). Also, how do you define volatility? why do you not like volatile stocks? how do you measure it? Thanks -- Disclaimer: Opinions expressed in this document are those of the author. Digital Equipment Corp., 110 Spit Brook Rd, ZKO2-3/N30, Nashua, NH 03062 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Peter Christiansen Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Potential CANSLIM stocks - ASVI Date: 17 Apr 1997 23:29:55 GMT+7 ** Reply to note from "Peter P. Newell" Thu, 17 Apr 1997 09:31 -0400 (EDT) > I bought ASVI @16 and sold it @22 it is really hanging in there considering > its got a PE of 100 and no projected earnings available. I would definitely > pick this one up if it starts moving. They have a new positrak system > that is really taking off. Only question is can they 8x their earning > quickly. They just reported that earnings for 1st quarter '97 were double last year. The stock is down a quarter. Peter Christiansen Bangkok, Thailand Connected with OS/2 Warp 3.0 & The Post Road Mailer _____________________________________________________________________________________ SET PATH=Bookshelf;DeskDrawer;Closet;BoxUnderBed;GarbageCan ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Brenda" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Craig/Peter Stock Selections Date: 17 Apr 1997 11:42:00 -0500 As we are all aware there is NOT a true CANSLIMer including the founder himself. from reading his book I discern that his best graph pattern is the high tight flag and NOT the properly formed cup with handle. However, I have never heard or seen a post suggesting a single stock with a high tight flag formation. But then, I AM new to this list. Give me the symbol on any stock and I will give you my long term and short term grade on the stock. Let me propose a situation for you. You have funds enough to invest in just ONE stock and you must invest in it prior to the closing. One has the PERFECTLY formed cup with a handle, you know (thru magic) that at the end of the day the stock will have broken out and on over 200% increase in volume. You can get in at the exact right top of the cup. This stock is available. Another stock has no cup with a handle, no high tight flag, no double bottom. The only thing this stock has done is each and every week for 52 weeks in a row gone up $.25. Never has dropped, not a single time in the last 365 days. It stays the same Mon - Thurs and on Friday increases $.25. The spread is an eighth. It is available. You can buy both stocks for $30 a share. Which stock would YOU buy. For me, there is no question, no debate,no problem. I make the decision in a heartbeat. For stock two to start going down at the exact point I buy I would have to be the unluckiest investor in the world. For stock one, the cup w/handle to go back down and me lose 6-8% would be ABSOLUTELY NOTHING out of the ordinary. That happens ALL the time. Yes, I value a properly formed cup w/handle but to me it is not nearly as strong as a stock that has steadily advanced for the last 6 mos/12 mos with NO correction and steadily moving upward. Are those hard to find? You bet! Impossible? Not in the least. Do you make money on all of them? No. Do you make money on most of stocks like that? You bet you do!!!!!! However, I still use ALL of the CANSLIM grading criteria in making a selection. Usually when you find a stock with this shape it will have a good EPS and REL and ACC and SPN and GRP. Not always, but most of the time. Hope this answers some of your questions. James ---------- > From: Hemant Rotithor > To: canslim@mail.xmission.com > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Craig/Peter Stock Selections > Date: Thursday, April 17, 1997 10:41 AM > > assume that higher the number, lower the volatility-desirable. > Now my question is for long term volatility over one year is your system > in resonance with > CANSLIM? > If a CANSLIM stock made a cup (say with a 50% dip in the cup part) and a > handle chart, the price in the downward and > upward part of the cup shows significant change and volatility (only in > the handle > would it show a stable price pattern), so would such a stock pass your > volatility > grade at all? if it does, would many other patterns that are volatile in > a different > way not pass the test too?(which may be undesirable). > Also, how do you define volatility? why do you not like volatile stocks? > how do you measure it? > Thanks > -- > Disclaimer: Opinions expressed in this document are those of the author. > Digital Equipment Corp., 110 Spit Brook Rd, ZKO2-3/N30, Nashua, NH 03062 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Michael A Langston Subject: re: [CANSLIM] Craig/Peter Stock Selections Date: 17 Apr 1997 12:53:32 -0400 james writes: > As we are all aware there is NOT a true CANSLIMer including the founder > himself. well no, i'm guess i'm not aware that o'neil isn't a canslimmer > from reading his book I discern that his best graph pattern > is the high tight flag not my recollection -- i think he likes to talk about saucers and c&h b/o's (i prefer flat bases myself -- so what?) > I have never heard or seen a post suggesting a single stock with > a high tight flag formation. But then, I AM new to this list. i know that i for one have mentioned HTFs here -- FWIW they were a dime a dozen last spring but not lately -- not mere coincidence that they are prevalent in strong HGS markets > Let me propose a situation for you. > james, i think you're on record for prefering low-volatility staircase patterns to b/o's > Do you make money on most of stocks like that? You bet > you do!!!!!! cheer up would you :) mike ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Brenda" Subject: [CANSLIM] High Tight Flags Date: 17 Apr 1997 12:15:33 -0500 HTMMIS page 167 "High, Tight Flags Are Rare": A high, tight flag price pattern is rare. It is the strongest pattern but it certainly risky and very difficult to correctly recognize or interpret..... Many stocks can skyrocket 200% or more off this formation..."Wm. J. O'Neil" ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Michael A Langston Subject: re: [CANSLIM] High Tight Flags Date: 17 Apr 1997 13:28:31 -0400 > HTMMIS page 167 "High, Tight Flags Are Rare": yes HTFs are rare -- so how does that substantiate a claim that they are o'neil's "best" pattern? > It is the strongest pattern yes, i believe it is recognized as such in a number of TA books -- so o'neil agrees w/ TA, i don't see how that makes it his "best" > it certainly risky and very difficult to correctly recognize i think that speaks volumes -- again, hardly a vote for "best!" anyway, i'm not sure where you're going with this james -- nor why you go out of your way to say o'neil isn't a canslimmer -- nor why you called his ideas derogatory names last nite -- i'm no saint myself, nor an o'neil defender for that matter, but might i suggest that you try to...nevermind, i've seen enuf of your posts to know i'm wasting my breath, will simply chalk it up to your "style" of posting, no problem mike ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Peter Christiansen Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Craig/Peter Stock Selections Date: 18 Apr 1997 00:36:25 GMT+7 ** Reply to note from "Brenda" Thu, 17 Apr 1997 11:42:00 -0500 > Let me propose a situation for you. You have funds enough to invest in just > ONE stock and you must invest in it prior to the closing. One has the > PERFECTLY formed cup with a handle, you know (thru magic) that at the end > of the day the stock will have broken out and on over 200% increase in > volume. You can get in at the exact right top of the cup. This stock is > available. Another stock has no cup with a handle, no high tight flag, no > double bottom. The only thing this stock has done is each and every week > for 52 weeks in a row gone up $.25. Never has dropped, not a single time in > the last 365 days. It stays the same Mon - Thurs and on Friday increases > $.25. The spread is an eighth. It is available. You can buy both stocks for > $30 a share. Which stock would YOU buy. I wouldn't touch the second one. It sounds like it is overextended and overdue for a correction. Can you supply us with some examples of stocks that have gone up for a year without a weekly correction? I have never searched for stocks with this characteristic, but would be interested in having a look at some. Thanks. Peter Christiansen Bangkok, Thailand Connected with OS/2 Warp 3.0 & The Post Road Mailer _____________________________________________________________________________________ Please, clean your screen! I can't see out! ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "James B. Andrews" Subject: [CANSLIM] DG's Online - A frank Discussion Date: 17 Apr 1997 11:28:31 -0700 I have been trying to upgrade DG's since 1992,,, the suggestion was made to WON and all I got in return was a glaring stare, David Ryan, when I sent a message to David Ryan when he was on Prodigy said he would give it to programming... I also made the suggestion on 2/16/97 to Jody Mulkey ... Nothing was changed,,, the suggestion was as follows>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>On each of the following reports, TOP REL STR STOCKS, TOP EPS STOCKS, TOP GROWING STOCKS, TIMELINESS A STOCKS, TIMELINE MOVING UP and TIMELINE MOVING DOWN set up the fields as follows; SYMB, COMPANY NAME, GROUP NAME, EXCH, PRICE, REL STR, EPS RANK, A/D, TIMELINESS THIS WK, TIMELINESS LAST WK, GROWTH RATE..... This would make each report MUCH more useable... At the very least add the group name next to the company name on all reports where the company name now appears...<<<<<< On 2/16/97 I also made the following suggestion to Jody Mulkey and to date have not seen any change>>>>>> >>>>>>When you look at a report, you have a choice of printing out the report or exporting it to a Lotus or Excel spreadsheet... The problem is that the program looks for the Lotus or Excel software and if it is not present will not export or d/l the report.... The way your program works now, I would have to have either Lotus or Excel software in my computer for your program to find and then your program will let the data be exported. This would require me to acquire that software in order for your program to work.... This just will not work.... I use Microsoft Works and it will accept either Lotus or Excel formatted data. Also what if a user wanted to d/l the data and then save it on a floppy and take it somewhere else to be used on another computer... Just d/l the data,,, let the client figure what software he wants to use to read it... <<<<<<<<<<< Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Craig/Peter Stock Selections Date: 17 Apr 1997 14:43:43 -0400 (EDT) James wrote: > Let me propose a situation for you. You have funds enough to invest in just > ONE stock and you must invest in it prior to the closing. One has the > PERFECTLY formed cup with a handle, you know (thru magic) that at the end > of the day the stock will have broken out and on over 200% increase in > volume. You can get in at the exact right top of the cup. This stock is > available. Another stock has no cup with a handle, no high tight flag, no > double bottom. The only thing this stock has done is each and every week > for 52 weeks in a row gone up $.25. Never has dropped, not a single time in > the last 365 days. It stays the same Mon - Thurs and on Friday increases > $.25. The spread is an eighth. It is available. You can buy both stocks for > $30 a share. Which stock would YOU buy. For me, there is no question, no > debate,no problem. I make the decision in a heartbeat. For stock two to > start going down at the exact point I buy I would have to be the unluckiest > investor in the world. For stock one, the cup w/handle to go back down and > me lose 6-8% would be ABSOLUTELY NOTHING out of the ordinary. That happens > ALL the time. Yes, I value a properly formed cup w/handle but to me it is > not nearly as strong as a stock that has steadily advanced for the last 6 > mos/12 mos with NO correction and steadily moving upward. Are those hard to > find? You bet! Impossible? Not in the least. Do you make money on all of > them? No. Do you make money on most of stocks like that? You bet you > do!!!!!! However, I still use ALL of the CANSLIM grading criteria in making > a selection. Usually when you find a stock with this shape it will have a > good EPS and REL and ACC and SPN and GRP. Not always, but most of the time. > Hope this answers some of your questions. > James What you are using above is nothing but a good old trend following approach accompanied with all its good and bad sides. People have been using it since the begining of markets, so it's nothing to get too excited about. The problem with trends is acquiring the edge to detect them before everyone else does. The cleaner the trend (less volatile = desirable, in your case) the more obvious it has become to everybody, hence the faster it is approaching a perturbation (disturbance) point. Entering, riding and leaving a trend in an optimal manner includes optimization between its volatility (a sort of a camuflage for the trend) and speed of detection. You don't want it to be too clean (hence too obvious and long established), but you also want the volatility to be small enough for the trend to be there to begin with. Nothing wrong with zig-zag (volatile, in your case) trends. As a matter of fact I like those more cause there's more of them and they appear more "natural" to me. There's something fishy with those $.25/week for a year trends. Too synthetic. The chaotic nature of the market is bound to take care of that anomaly more likely sooner than later. Cheers, Zoran http://www.seas.rochester.edu:8080/ee/users/zmitrov/home.html ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Craig Griffin Subject: [CANSLIM] Thoughts re: Weekly Volume/Price Patterns Date: 17 Apr 1997 14:58:42 -0400 (EDT) James has been discussing his fondness for stocks with low volatility and lots of up weeks in a row. Especially in a market like we are having, stocks with low volatility are appealing. And if you can find a stock with an up week nearly every week for 52 weeks ... well that sounds a bit idealized, but you get the idea. I do know that TC2000 comes with some canned scans that search for stocks that have "been up every day for the last 5 days" (and it would be easy to do the same thing with Quotes Plus, if it is not already there). Presumably, one is interested in stocks up 5 days in a row because they are more likely to move up at least one more day, and/or because that kind of strength perhaps indicates something New is going on. I guess you could do the same sort of thing with weeks, instead of days (up 5 weeks in a row). Not sure how to quantify the usefulness of it, but I think I may have a glimmer of what James is getting at. One of the foundations of stock market participation is the maxim "the trend is your friend". Finding strongly trending stocks and hopping aboard, especially when the trend is a long term, low volatility rise, is very appealing. I have heard others talk about doing this. Where to set one's stops becomes problematic (the moving average perhaps?). Exactly what behavior to look for before hopping aboard (a pullback perhaps) is also unknown to me. How do you do it James? This whole notion brings me to verbalize something I have been toying with but have not really worked out yet. It seems that there is a lot more info than is initially apparent in weekly charts. I especially like to use a charting package that allows me to see up volume in green and down volume in red (ie. if the price closed up for the week, then that week's volume is "up volume" and if it closes down for the week, then "down volume". Same thing on a daily chart). What I find myself doing is looking for charts with nice bases, but also intuitively looking for the volume behavior in the base. I like to see a flat base, for example, with two weeks of up volume for every week of down volume. I also like to see nice tall green lines, and mostly short red lines, except maybe on a shakeout week in the middle of the base. Then at the end of the base on the breakout, even if the stock is not making big progress out of the box, I like to see big volume each week for a couple or three weeks, with the stock up at least a little each of those weeks. This is but the tip of the iceberg, but you get the idea. I am starting to see a number of weekly price/volume clues that I believe may help to judge a stock's health and its overall strength. I originally got introduced to this idea when O'Neil showed an example at a seminar of a stock with three down weeks in a row towards the end of a flat base with higher volume each week. Although the price was not down very much each week, it was down and on increasing volume. The price collapsed a week or two later, but he said you should have been out long before based on the "way it was acting" the prior few weeks, if nothing else. I believe that Stan Weinstein uses technical analysis in ways similar to this. And I have become nothing but more impressed with him (Weinstein) since the presentation he gave at the Money Show. He made some really good calls there re: the market and some individual stocks. His work also seems to dovetail nicely with Canslim. I think I need to move his book to the top of my reading list. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Brenda" Subject: [CANSLIM] Re: Volatility-PERSONAL Opinions Date: 17 Apr 1997 14:25:24 -0500 Zoran, I was simply trying to use "purest of purest" examples in each case. Sorry to have caused such a stir. I always do love hearing, "I would never buy that stock. It's too far extended!" If it has shown NO volatility in the last year just load me up with 'em. There's not enough of them to deplete my capital. Seems to me I heard somebody say that when a stock appears too expensive for most and most investors will not buy it (too expensive or far extended) it usually tends to move right on up. While those that are cheap and bound to now go up usually do just the opposite and go down. Anybody remember who said that? I'm sure most of you will be pleased that I am now gone quiet. Do I hear three cheers? I will leave and lurk. I will respond only to individuals who right me individually and desire my opinion. Seems like some are really "put out" by it. Where is Rick? You all have a great day and I hope this market "someday" recovers to the point that you feel "safe" investing. Somebody else said that the market fools most of the people, most of the time. Wonder who said that and if most of the people included themselves or are they exempt to their own axiom. Good investing and make a lot. Best to each of you. Sorry if I offended anybody with what I have said. James ---------- > From: Zoran Mitrovski > To: canslim@mail.xmission.com > Cc: Zoran Mitrovski > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Craig/Peter Stock Selections > Date: Thursday, April 17, 1997 1:43 PM > > James wrote: > > > Let me propose a situation for you. You have funds enough to invest in just > > ONE stock and you must invest in it prior to the closing. One has the > > PERFECTLY formed cup with a handle, you know (thru magic) that at the end > > of the day the stock will have broken out and on over 200% increase in > > volume. You can get in at the exact right top of the cup. This stock is > > available. Another stock has no cup with a handle, no high tight flag, no > > double bottom. The only thing this stock has done is each and every week > > for 52 weeks in a row gone up $.25. Never has dropped, not a single time in > > the last 365 days. It stays the same Mon - Thurs and on Friday increases > > $.25. The spread is an eighth. It is available. You can buy both stocks for > > $30 a share. Which stock would YOU buy. For me, there is no question, no > > debate,no problem. I make the decision in a heartbeat. For stock two to > > start going down at the exact point I buy I would have to be the unluckiest > > investor in the world. For stock one, the cup w/handle to go back down and > > me lose 6-8% would be ABSOLUTELY NOTHING out of the ordinary. That happens > > ALL the time. Yes, I value a properly formed cup w/handle but to me it is > > not nearly as strong as a stock that has steadily advanced for the last 6 > > mos/12 mos with NO correction and steadily moving upward. Are those hard to > > find? You bet! Impossible? Not in the least. Do you make money on all of > > them? No. Do you make money on most of stocks like that? You bet you > > do!!!!!! However, I still use ALL of the CANSLIM grading criteria in making > > a selection. Usually when you find a stock with this shape it will have a > > good EPS and REL and ACC and SPN and GRP. Not always, but most of the time. > > Hope this answers some of your questions. > > James > > What you are using above is nothing but a good old trend following > approach accompanied with all its good and bad sides. People have > been using it since the begining of markets, so it's nothing to get > too excited about. The problem with trends is acquiring the edge to > detect them before everyone else does. The cleaner the trend (less > volatile = desirable, in your case) the more obvious it has become > to everybody, hence the faster it is approaching a perturbation > (disturbance) point. Entering, riding and leaving a trend in an > optimal manner includes optimization between its volatility (a sort > of a camuflage for the trend) and speed of detection. You don't > want it to be too clean (hence too obvious and long established), > but you also want the volatility to be small enough for the trend > to be there to begin with. Nothing wrong with zig-zag (volatile, > in your case) trends. As a matter of fact I like those more cause > there's more of them and they appear more "natural" to me. There's > something fishy with those $.25/week for a year trends. Too > synthetic. The chaotic nature of the market is bound to take care > of that anomaly more likely sooner than later. > > Cheers, > Zoran > http://www.seas.rochester.edu:8080/ee/users/zmitrov/home.html > > > > > > > ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: pwahl@postoffice.worldnet.att.net Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] ADE Corp Date: 17 Apr 1997 11:02:13 -0800 > From: jeff@scrooge.idec.sdl.usu.edu (Jeff Salisbury) > What is the Timeliness ranking for ADEX? C ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Hemant Rotithor Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Thoughts re: Weekly Volume/Price Patterns Date: 17 Apr 1997 16:01:08 -0400 Craig Griffin wrote: > > James has been discussing his fondness for stocks with low volatility and > lots of up weeks in a row. Especially in a market like we are having, > stocks with low volatility are appealing. And if you can find a stock with > an up week nearly every week for 52 weeks ... With my understanding of Brenda's selections (it could be wrong since he has explained it in pieces), he is looking for low volatility stocks that show steady and near linear rampup for a year (did not understand why he looks at 30 days; if the yearly chart satisfies his criteria I would assume last 30 days chart would be OK too, unless he uses it for initial filtering using a TC2000 scan and the look for a year's criteria on the output). and he uses EPS/RS criteria for selection with trailing 15% stops from his buy points (CANSLIM part). This probably is working for him, not sure how well it back tests. I can see that such a criteria would automatically eliminate most cyclicals (since they are bound to show volatility somewhere in a year) and high growth rate stocks (which we know are volatile and will not have a 1 year chart that he describes). Would be interesting to know what kind of businesses he usually ends up buying (whose charts show his criteria) and what kind of returns they provide (he mentioned 10% per month but I am not sure he uses the same criteria in all stocks; e.g. DELGF). -- Disclaimer: Opinions expressed in this document are those of the author. Digital Equipment Corp., 110 Spit Brook Rd, ZKO2-3/N30, Nashua, NH 03062 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Zoran Mitrovski Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Re: Volatility-PERSONAL Opinions Date: 17 Apr 1997 16:48:54 -0400 (EDT) James wrote: > Zoran, > I was simply trying to use "purest of purest" examples in each case. > Sorry to have caused such a stir. I always do love hearing, "I would never > buy that stock. It's too far extended!" If it has shown NO volatility in > the last year just load me up with 'em. There's not enough of them to > deplete my capital. Seems to me I heard somebody say that when a stock > appears too expensive for most and most investors will not buy it (too > expensive or far extended) it usually tends to move right on up. While > those that are cheap and bound to now go up usually do just the opposite > and go down. Anybody remember who said that? I'm sure most of you will be > pleased that I am now gone quiet. Do I hear three cheers? I will leave and > lurk. I will respond only to individuals who right me individually and > desire my opinion. Seems like some are really "put out" by it. Where is > Rick? You all have a great day and I hope this market "someday" recovers to > the point that you feel "safe" investing. Somebody else said that the > market fools most of the people, most of the time. Wonder who said that and > if most of the people included themselves or are they exempt to their own > axiom. Good investing and make a lot. Best to each of you. Sorry if I > offended anybody with what I have said. > James Whatever dude. I'll just include my post (that you responded to) and let you figure out how the jist of what you decided and/or concluded above is in any way correlated with what I wrote. Chill out. Noone is out to 'get' you, or your beliefs. If everyone left forums whenever they faced a different argument on an issue, there would be no forums to begin with. You participate here as a single entity, the same way I do. There is no 'me' or 'you' against 'them'. There is no 'them', at all. And if I or someone else would not feel like getting into the same trades as you do, you should be happy about that. More money for you to reap. ;^) Anyways, back on my head... Cheers, Zoran > From: Zoran Mitrovski > > > What you are using above is nothing but a good old trend following > > approach accompanied with all its good and bad sides. People have > > been using it since the begining of markets, so it's nothing to get > > too excited about. The problem with trends is acquiring the edge to > > detect them before everyone else does. The cleaner the trend (less > > volatile = desirable, in your case) the more obvious it has become > > to everybody, hence the faster it is approaching a perturbation > > (disturbance) point. Entering, riding and leaving a trend in an > > optimal manner includes optimization between its volatility (a sort > > of a camuflage for the trend) and speed of detection. You don't > > want it to be too clean (hence too obvious and long established), > > but you also want the volatility to be small enough for the trend > > to be there to begin with. Nothing wrong with zig-zag (volatile, > > in your case) trends. As a matter of fact I like those more cause > > there's more of them and they appear more "natural" to me. There's > > something fishy with those $.25/week for a year trends. Too > > synthetic. The chaotic nature of the market is bound to take care > > of that anomaly more likely sooner than later. > > > > Cheers, > > Zoran > > http://www.seas.rochester.edu:8080/ee/users/zmitrov/home.html ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Craig/Peter Stock Selections Date: 17 Apr 1997 20:19:06 -0400 I have checked out any nr of James' picks, so I think I understand a little better the chart formations he prefers, he mentioned it several times, at least to me: "starts at the lower left corner and goes to the upper right corner". I would strongly disagree that this is an "overextended" stock. This type of formation is absorbing profit takers all along the way, many of whom end up jumping back in as well. Sure, it's great "instant gratification" to buy a stock and have it "breakout" two or three points the same day. It's esp rewarding if you are trying to do short term trading. On the other hand, if you are managing portfolios for others, as James is doing, hopefully the clients simply look at the total value at the end of the month, and smile. They don't care if a stock went up $3 in a day, or a month, just that it continued up. And when you can find an "escalator stock" (my invention, feel free to use it, James) that is this consistent, you aren't wasting money on commissions, you have a good "buy and hold" stock. On the other hand, first time it breaks such a consistent pattern, SELL, SELL, SELL (of course, IMHO). I'm still browsing thru my email one by one, and hopefully James will provide a list of "escalator stocks" to look at, but if my tired and aging memory is right, I think MLHR was one of them. Left all my charts at work, yeah I know, dumb! But jury duty wore me out and altered my routine. BTW, Peter, like your daily signature slogans, this one was esp good ("clean your screens, I can't see out") tom w ---------- > From: Peter Christiansen > To: canslim@mail.xmission.com > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Craig/Peter Stock Selections > Date: Thursday, April 17, 1997 8:36 PM > > ** Reply to note from "Brenda" Thu, 17 Apr 1997 11:42:00 -0500 > > > Let me propose a situation for you. You have funds enough to invest in just > > ONE stock and you must invest in it prior to the closing. One has the > > PERFECTLY formed cup with a handle, you know (thru magic) that at the end > > available. Another stock has no cup with a handle, no high tight flag, no > > double bottom. The only thing this stock has done is each and every week > > for 52 weeks in a row gone up $.25. Never has dropped, not a single time in > > $30 a share. Which stock would YOU buy. > > I wouldn't touch the second one. It sounds like it is overextended and overdue for a > correction. Can you supply us with some examples of stocks that have gone up for a ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Craig Griffin Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Chicago Class May 31 Date: 17 Apr 1997 20:38:02 -0400 (EDT) Peter, I have not seen the ad for it, but assume it is O'Neil's Advanced Investment Workshop which you are referring to. I liked it and recommend it. Craig ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Federal Reserve Date: 17 Apr 1997 20:34:18 -0400 I have already posted on my concerns over the potential politicizing of the Fed Reserve and its role. Lately (for the last month or so), I am picking up some signals that Greenspan may either be losing his clout as Chairman or may be preparing to step down. Mostly this is based on the increasingly public comments by other members of the Fed Reserve. Don't know if Greenspan's recent marriage may foretell a personal life style change on his part, but change may be coming one way or another. tom w ---------- > From: David F. Cameron > To: canslim@mail.xmission.com > Subject: [CANSLIM] Federal Reserve > Date: Thursday, April 17, 1997 11:12 AM > > Now a more coherent statement of my view: > > I favor having a fully privatized money system. The problem with > the Federal Reserve isn't the private part of its quasi-private nature. > It is rather the heavy role that government plays in the institution > as well as the restrictions on competition in the issue of dollar- > denominated currency. IMHO, the Fed needs to be fully privatized. > ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Craig/Peter Stock Selections Date: 17 Apr 1997 20:25:59 -0400 Mike, I concur, you have probably mentioned HTF stocks the most (showing your bias maybe? :--)) However, since James joined the group there has been little mention of them. During the time that I used to have access to WON's own picks, or at least the team he supervised, I saw picks that appeared very poor choices by CANSLIM stds. Some worked, some were dogs, some I eventually found out weren't from O'Neill but rather our acct exec. I also have seen O'Neill hold a NSMI well past normal sell pts. So, from personal experience, I would have to say even the great guru does, sometimes, for whatever reasons, violate his own rules. He probably gets away with it a lot better than I do, however. tom w ---------- > From: Michael A Langston > To: canslim@mail.xmission.com > Subject: re: [CANSLIM] Craig/Peter Stock Selections > Date: Thursday, April 17, 1997 12:53 PM > > james writes: > > > As we are all aware there is NOT a true CANSLIMer including the founder > > himself. > > well no, i'm guess i'm not aware that o'neil isn't a canslimmer > > > I have never heard or seen a post suggesting a single stock with > > a high tight flag formation. But then, I AM new to this list. > > i know that i for one have mentioned HTFs here -- FWIW they were > a dime a dozen last spring but not lately -- not mere coincidence > that they are prevalent in strong HGS markets > ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Thoughts re: Weekly Volume/Price Patterns Date: 17 Apr 1997 20:44:22 -0400 Finding, and going with, a particular stock with a consistent trend up can be far more rewarding and comforting in a leaderless mkt like this one than trying to find a "breakout". Least you are doing better than a money mkt, feel like you are invested, and can survive this correction in better shape than you started. tom w ---------- > From: Craig Griffin > To: canslim@mail.xmission.com > Subject: [CANSLIM] Thoughts re: Weekly Volume/Price Patterns > Date: Thursday, April 17, 1997 2:58 PM > > James has been discussing his fondness for stocks with low volatility and > lots of up weeks in a row. Especially in a market like we are having, > stocks with low volatility are appealing. And if you can find a stock with > an up week nearly every week for 52 weeks ... well that sounds a bit ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Re: Volatility-PERSONAL Opinions Date: 17 Apr 1997 21:03:51 -0400 Well, I have finally finished getting thru my inbox tonight. Haven't had a lot of sleep so don't intend to write much. James, frankly I saw no flames here, so no need to be offended. I don't think any members responding were. Maybe it's just my broker background kicking in here, after dealing with 200 or so clients and their individual likes and dislikes and investing opinions and strategies (sometimes I really wondered how I kept it all straight!), but what I saw here tonight was a decent discussion of different ways of applying CANSLIM in a disorderly mkt. Were I still an active broker I would have clients using much of what was discussed. Some would be in nothing but "escalator" stocks, others (right now at least) would be in cash waiting for a "breakout" stock, be it from a c&h, saucer, or any other type basing pattern. And definitely a few would be nibbling around the edges for value investing cuz they like to buy and hold for a year or two and simply not worry about the day to day price changes. CANSLIM can be applied to all of these, in one form or another and to one or more varying degrees. CANSLIM is anything but a pure science, otherwise we would program our computers and let it do all the worrying (along with about 100 mil other investors, which would undoubtedly screw it all up). You don't need to lurk, I'll still pull up charts on the ones you like, and then act according to what works for me and I can afford and am comfortable with. I've looked at enough of your picks to know that there is a CANSLIM basis for mentioning most of them, that's all I need to know. Meantime, I think you were asked a couple of good questions that so far went unanswered, so will prod you a little out of lurker mode. How about a short list of stocks that currently show the lower left, upper right pattern? How about mentioning a couple of groups where this pattern is showing up most often? tom w ---------- > From: Brenda > To: canslim@mail.xmission.com > Subject: [CANSLIM] Re: Volatility-PERSONAL Opinions > Date: Thursday, April 17, 1997 3:25 PM > Zoran, I was simply trying to use "purest of purest" examples in each case. Sorry to have caused such a stir. I always do love hearing, "I would never and go down. Anybody remember who said that? I'm sure most of you will be pleased that I am now gone quiet. Do I hear three cheers? I will leave and lurk. I will respond only to individuals who right me individually and ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: GoldFish Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] ADE Corp Date: 17 Apr 1997 22:51:10 -0700 I noticed that: 1) ADEX is acquiring Digital Measurement Systems Inc. (New development) 2) The inventory is stacking up, from 12,981 thousands (4/30/96) to 22,365 (thousands)(1/31/97). In essance, the invevntory level is increased from 20% to 30% of the total assets. I do not think this is a good sign unless it is a norm in this industry. 3) IT IS A RELATIVE NEW COMPANY, HAS NO 5 YEAR RECORD. Hence violate "A" in CANSLIM. AN IPO in Nov 95? 4) 1997 E=$1.43; 1998 E=$1.55; about 8% increase. It does not look like a high growth company to me. 5) Book value is $6.45; with cash $1.46/share 6) trailing Price/Earning=13.4; Price/sale=1.89; Price/Book=2.87 The Chart shows an interesting stock (may be someone out there knowing something), but it is not very exciting from the veiw of fundamental nor CANSLIM. GoldFish "Every stock is a bad stock...." pwahl@postoffice.worldnet.att.net wrote: > > Here is a stock I dug up in the Daily Graphs that looks pretty good. > Anyone have any comments to add, feel free... > > ADE Corp (ADEX) > > C - .38 vs .28 + 36% Jan. > .37 vs .25 + 42% Nov. > A - 1996 = $1.07 > 1997E = 1.45 + 36% > N Don't know > S 7.2 million shares, 3.6 float > L Rel. Str is 93, EPS 96, Gr. RS is 94 > I funds 24% > M Pretty lousy I'd say. > ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: GoldFish Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Potential CANSLIM stocks - ASVI Date: 17 Apr 1997 23:04:03 -0700 Congratulation Peter! Care to share your thinking process on the buy/sell of this stock with us? GoldFish "Every stock is a bad stock..." Peter P. Newell wrote: > > I bought ASVI @16 and sold it @22 it is really hanging in there considering > its got a PE of 100 and no projected earnings available. I would definitely > pick this one up if it starts moving. They have a new positrak system > that is really taking off. Only question is can they 8x their earning > quickly. > > Peter Newell ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: GoldFish Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] CANSLIM backtest in "Invest with the Best" by James O'Schaunussy Date: 17 Apr 1997 23:23:40 -0700 Hi peter: Are you talking about Ch 11, in Jame O'Shaughnessy book "What Works on Wall Street"? If so, on page 156 of this book, it says :" Buying stocks because they have great earning gains is a losing proposition." GoldFish "Every stock is a bad stock..." PPNewell@aol.com wrote: > > I posted this a while back with the wrong book. The backtest was in the > above from 1994. In "What works on Wallstreet", he doesn't mention by name > or give CANSLIM as much credit. Anyhow for 1986-1992 the returns averaged > 30% with no down years and this includes 1987 with +9.x% and positive return > in 1991 also. > > Anyhow he used the Value Line database with the following parms, note these > may not be exact but are close this is worth reading if you can find it, I > saw it at Barnes&Noble. > > 5yr EPS > 20 > 1yr EPS > 30 > %from high 85 > 26wk change >32 > shares outstnd < 25 > Institutional < 60% > > This returned 7 stocks from the time period he is demonstrating and then he > evaluates them very positively. Also, the back test was without any chart > analysis which may or may not have helped. > > Peter Newell ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: GoldFish Subject: [CANSLIM] test Date: 17 Apr 1997 23:37:51 -0700 this is a test. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Brenda" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] backtest in "Invest with the Best" by James O'Schaunussy Date: 17 Apr 1997 22:45:17 -0500 Someone else wrote, "If you want a stock with great/blow out earnings in Quarter #2, find one with those earnings in Quarter 1. Surprising how many times they will repeat." I'm sure all of you know who said that. JWT ---------- > From: GoldFish > To: canslim@mail.xmission.com > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] CANSLIM backtest in "Invest with the Best" by James O'Schaunussy > Date: Friday, April 18, 1997 1:23 AM > > Hi peter: > > Are you talking about Ch 11, in Jame O'Shaughnessy book "What Works on > Wall Street"? If so, on page 156 of this book, it says :" > Buying stocks because they have great earning gains is a losing > proposition." > > GoldFish > "Every stock is a bad stock..." > > PPNewell@aol.com wrote: > > > > I posted this a while back with the wrong book. The backtest was in the > > above from 1994. In "What works on Wallstreet", he doesn't mention by name > > or give CANSLIM as much credit. Anyhow for 1986-1992 the returns averaged > > 30% with no down years and this includes 1987 with +9.x% and positive return > > in 1991 also. > > > > Anyhow he used the Value Line database with the following parms, note these > > may not be exact but are close this is worth reading if you can find it, I > > saw it at Barnes&Noble. > > > > 5yr EPS > 20 > > 1yr EPS > 30 > > %from high 85 > > 26wk change >32 > > shares outstnd < 25 > > Institutional < 60% > > > > This returned 7 stocks from the time period he is demonstrating and then he > > evaluates them very positively. Also, the back test was without any chart > > analysis which may or may not have helped. > > > > Peter Newell ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Peter Christiansen Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Re: Volatility-PERSONAL Opinions Date: 18 Apr 1997 12:32:32 GMT+7 ** Reply to note from "Tom Worley" Thu, 17 Apr 1997 21:03:51 -0400 > Meantime, I think you were asked a couple of good questions that so > far went unanswered, so will prod you a little out of lurker mode. > > How about a short list of stocks that currently show the lower > left, upper right pattern? > How about mentioning a couple of groups where this pattern is > showing up most often? Just to let you know.. James chose to answer my questions privately. Peter Christiansen Bangkok, Thailand Connected with OS/2 Warp 3.0 & The Post Road Mailer _____________________________________________________________________________________ A confident manner is important; computers can sense this. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: [CANSLIM] MSFT Date: 18 Apr 1997 07:04:48 -0400 Keep a watch on MSFT this morning, esp the open but throughout the day as well. It reported after the close earnings of .79, expected was .64. Traded well in aftermarket, up nearly 5 pts at one stage, and finished up about 4. Haven't looked at a recent chart but if follows this cycle's patterns we have been seeing, will give back most or all of last night's aftermarket gains. tom w Any opinions are strictly my own and not that of my employer. My comments are based on a variety of sources and are intended strictly to assist and inform. In no way am I suggesting a buy, sell, or hold decision based on my comments or observations. I always urge an investor to do his or her own homework, and be sure the risk of the market can be tolerated and any losses accepted gracefully. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: PPNewell@aol.com Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] CANSLIM backtest in "Invest with the Best" by James O'Schaunussy Date: 18 Apr 1997 09:15:04 -0400 (EDT) No, he has two books one from 1994 and the newer one from 1996. WWOWS doesn't mention canslim the 1994 version Invest with the Best does and gives it a good review. Hope he's wrong on the following cause if not CANSLIM is problematic. Actually, thats why EPS ranks current earnings higher and CANSLIM says they should be higher. MSFT is a good example, when there earnings growth slows down their 50 pe will go with it. Peter Newell << Hi peter: Are you talking about Ch 11, in Jame O'Shaughnessy book "What Works on Wall Street"? If so, on page 156 of this book, it says :" Buying stocks because they have great earning gains is a losing proposition." GoldFish "Every stock is a bad stock..." PPNewell@aol.com wrote: > > I posted this a while back with the wrong book. The backtest was in the > above from 1994. In "What works on Wallstreet", he doesn't mention by name > or give CANSLIM as much credit. Anyhow for 1986-1992 the returns averaged > 30% with no down years and this includes 1987 with +9.x% and positive return > in 1991 also. > > Anyhow he used the Value Line database with the following parms, note these > may not be exact but are close this is worth reading if you can find it, I > saw it at Barnes&Noble. > > 5yr EPS > 20 > 1yr EPS > 30 > %from high 85 > 26wk change >32 > shares outstnd < 25 > Institutional < 60% > > This returned 7 stocks from the time period he is demonstrating and then he > evaluates them very positively. Also, the back test was without any chart > analysis which may or may not have helped. > > Peter Newell >> ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: PPNewell@aol.com Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Potential CANSLIM stocks - ASVI Date: 18 Apr 1997 09:22:11 -0400 (EDT) On Dec 20 it showed up in the volume tables and had broken out of a base, not ideal entry was first breakout around 14. When slowly but surely to 25 dropped to 21 with the soft market and stock I put on a limit order of 22 and it sold the next day on the open and went to 23. << Congratulation Peter! Care to share your thinking process on the buy/sell of this stock with us? GoldFish "Every stock is a bad stock..." Peter P. Newell wrote: > > I bought ASVI @16 and sold it @22 it is really hanging in there considering > its got a PE of 100 and no projected earnings available. I would definitely > pick this one up if it starts moving. They have a new positrak system > that is really taking off. Only question is can they 8x their earning > quickly. > > Peter Newell >> ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: PPNewell@aol.com Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Re: Volatility-PERSONAL Opinions Date: 18 Apr 1997 09:25:05 -0400 (EDT) >>Short list of stocks going up slowly. Look at ASTSF almost doubled since Dec @20 small co from Tiawan not earning est etc. Plugs up every day. Note: this its too late in my opinion to buy this stock but you never know. Peter Newell ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Hemant Rotithor Subject: [CANSLIM] Elaine G speaks again Date: 18 Apr 1997 09:45:36 -0400 Look at: http://investor.msn.com/prospect/inter/inter.asp Tom, that is another datapoint for you to base your future predictions :-) -- Disclaimer: Opinions expressed in this document are those of the author. Digital Equipment Corp., 110 Spit Brook Rd, ZKO2-3/N30, Nashua, NH 03062 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: pwahl@postoffice.worldnet.att.net Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] ADE Corp Date: 17 Apr 1997 21:10:17 -0800 > From: GoldFish Thanks for the feedback, first of all. > 4) 1997 E=$1.43; 1998 E=$1.55; about 8% increase. > It does not look like a high growth company to me. If I put a lot of faith in that 1998 number, then I would agree with you. However, I trust the recent growth numbers, around +35% for the last few quarters more than the projections of next years earnings. Certainly is something to be wary of, but until I see evidence of a slowdown, I'll keep an eye on it anyway. A possible slowdown ahead might explain the low P/E of 13. Since ADEX is on one of those oddball earnings schedules, year end is April, earnings for next quarter not due to be reported until late June. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Brenda" Subject: [CANSLIM] Question-Opinions Solicited Date: 18 Apr 1997 09:48:06 -0500 Breaking Silence- couldn't stand it. Got a question for you. In the past we know that analysts records are not all that impressive. Don't remember the name of the stock but what happened to it caused me to no longer care about what First Call had or has to say. Their were 38 analysts following the stock. 30 had strong buys on the stock at 9am CST. At 9:15 CST the stock was 1/2 what it was 15 minutes ago. With this kind of activity I don't need that. Now we see one analyst after the other beginning to tout AMD with strong buys. Right? I hope so. I own it. In the CANSLIM approach we buy stocks more often than not when they are breaking into new high ground. One statement made by Mr O is that when stocks appear to high to most and when most will not buy the stock because it is too high priced what usually happens is the stock goes higher. When we begin to say a stock is too high, too far extended, are we not becoming analysts ourselves? Where do we get our credentials for being able to do this? Are we better than the people who make six and seven figure salaries doing this? Now here goes the real question - After a proper formation, proper pivot point and a buy point is established - we are to BUY. Now if the stick is extended FIVE percent from this point we are not to chase the stock and just admit we missed one. Excuse me but I do NOT understand this at all. If our system is soooo HOT (and I do think it is!) then how can we cut it so close. Do we not expect the stock to go but ...(5% higher? 10% higher? No higher?) What gives. I don't want to buy a stock that at 5% higher I am NOT INTERESTED in owning any more. I just plain don't understand this at all. I actually dollar cost average UP buying more and more and more and more of a stock as it continues to go up. That practice has brought home more BIG BIG BIG returns in the past and even now in the present in this market and has produced who knows how many 100 baggers (Lynch term) when I was initially only swinging for a single. SO, why in the world would you not want to buy a stock that is FIVE MEASLEY per cent above a PERFECT buy point? Is the system THAT sensitive? Help me with this one if you can. I must just not understand. James ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Hemant Rotithor Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Question-Opinions Solicited Date: 18 Apr 1997 11:20:36 -0400 Brenda wrote: > > Breaking Silence- couldn't stand it. Got a question for you. In the past we > know that analysts records are not all that impressive. Don't remember the > name of the stock but what happened to it caused me to no longer care about > what First Call had or has to say. Their were 38 analysts following the > stock. 30 had strong buys on the stock at 9am CST. At 9:15 CST the stock > was 1/2 what it was 15 minutes ago. With this kind of activity I don't need > that. Now we see one analyst after the other beginning to tout AMD with > strong buys. Right? I hope so. I own it. In the CANSLIM approach we buy > stocks more often than not when they are breaking into new high ground. One > statement made by Mr O is that when stocks appear to high to most and when > most will not buy the stock because it is too high priced what usually > happens is the stock goes higher. When we begin to say a stock is too high, > too far extended, are we not becoming analysts ourselves? Where do we get > our credentials for being able to do this? Are we better than the people > who make six and seven figure salaries doing this? Now here goes the real > question - After a proper formation, proper pivot point and a buy point is > established - we are to BUY. Now if the stick is extended FIVE percent from > this point we are not to chase the stock and just admit we missed one. > Excuse me but I do NOT understand this at all. If our system is soooo HOT > (and I do think it is!) then how can we cut it so close. Do we not expect > the stock to go but ...(5% higher? 10% higher? No higher?) What gives. I > don't want to buy a stock that at 5% higher I am NOT INTERESTED in owning > any more. I just plain don't understand this at all. I actually dollar cost > average UP buying more and more and more and more of a stock as it > continues to go up. That practice has brought home more BIG BIG BIG returns > in the past and even now in the present in this market and has produced who > knows how many 100 baggers (Lynch term) when I was initially only swinging > for a single. SO, why in the world would you not want to buy a stock that > is FIVE MEASLEY per cent above a PERFECT buy point? Is the system THAT > sensitive? Help me with this one if you can. I must just not understand. > James My understanding is that these are huristics that seem to have worked reasonably well in many cases and fits well with the buying and selling strategy promoted by CANSLIM, that is not to say that something else would not work. However, can you propose a reasonable heuristic that people can understand and implement which will work as well in a large number of cases; so I chase a stock that is extended 20% from base now what do I do? can you propose a systematic methodology? we have some understanding of yours but probably not a good one or a complete one. On the first point about analysts, are there analysts that have consistently done well in terms of projections? that is, worth following advice? does someone maintain a list? -- Disclaimer: Opinions expressed in this document are those of the author. Digital Equipment Corp., 110 Spit Brook Rd, ZKO2-3/N30, Nashua, NH 03062 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "James B. Andrews" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] DG's Online - A frank Discussion Date: 18 Apr 1997 09:56:41 -0700 Received this from someone yesterday,,, >shows how good a beta tester I am, wasn't even aware that there was >another version out since I was asked to join. Wasn't even aware >there was a "timeline" report, how does it work? Better still, how >do I download the latest version without having to start all over >with a new user nr and password? Just go to the DG home page and D/L the program again, then move it to the same directory that your current program is in and execute it. This will cause the new program to be set up over your current one and it will work exactly as before,,, no need to redo the name and password thing.... >I do agree that the columnar format can be improved. Have never >heard a justification for present one, and since changes/additions >have been made in past years, would seem a better layout could be >accomodated. I suspect it is just one of those things where the >"powers that be" are comfortable looking at it the way it is, and >won't change until enough people write and complain. This may sound strange but I think WON has columnar format set up in this fashion to "force" the user to look at the charts.... Think about it, if all the data to make a investment decision is on one page,,, then that would greatly lessen the demand for charts.... Think about it.. WON is in business to sell his products, IBD & DG, and he constantly walks the narrow line of giving you, the user, enough to get you to pay for more,,, and,,, giving you too much, where YOU can electronically produce the report(product) that WON wants to sell to you.... And finally, when I signed on to help with Beta testing, I gave them all the data, including credit card number, so they could start billing me when the system went from the testing stage to live... Using that data, I get a bill from them each month just as if the system was running live, followed with a statement saving that the bill is not "real", the system is still in the test phase, and it will go live in some future month.. The most current bill, 2 days ago, stated that the "live" date is now July... Last months bill reflected a April "live" date.... Obviously they are still working out the wrinkles... The Index in the help section, which is not part of the program but a separate HTML screen, still does not work.... All the above being said, there is a LOT of data there and the graphs are superb... Jim Andrews - Phoenix ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "James B. Andrews" Subject: [CANSLIM] Did it turn?? UP? DOWN? NO CHANGE??? Date: 18 Apr 1997 10:35:58 -0700 A useful tool for all of us to use and learn from would be a daily report/indicator/semi-graph to reflect the status of the DOW, NASDAQ, and possibly one other indicator.... The formula used should be from WON' book(this IS a CANSLIM list).The layout would be roughly as follows,,, DOW Date xx/xx/xx xx/xx/xx xx/xx/xx xx/xx/xx xx/xx/xx % chg & direction xx.xx +/- xx.xx +/- xx.xx +/- xx.xx +/- xx.xx +/- volume in millions xxx xxx xxx xxx xxx Market direction DOWN N/C DOWN N/C DOWN N/C UP CHANGE UP N/C Followed by comments indicating if the market indicator is in the process of changing... Anyone want to take this on???? Comments???? ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Hemant Rotithor Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Did it turn?? UP? DOWN? NO CHANGE??? Date: 18 Apr 1997 14:03:07 -0400 James B. Andrews wrote: > > A useful tool for all of us to use and learn from would be a daily > report/indicator/semi-graph to reflect the status of the DOW, NASDAQ, and > possibly one other indicator.... The formula used should be from WON' > book(this IS a CANSLIM list).The layout would be roughly as follows,,, > > DOW > Date xx/xx/xx xx/xx/xx xx/xx/xx xx/xx/xx xx/xx/xx > % chg & direction xx.xx +/- xx.xx +/- xx.xx +/- xx.xx +/- xx.xx +/- > volume in millions xxx xxx xxx xxx xxx > Market direction DOWN N/C DOWN N/C DOWN N/C UP CHANGE UP N/C > > Followed by comments indicating if the market indicator is in the process > of changing... > > Anyone want to take this on???? > > Comments???? IBD NASDAQ/NYSE charts provide most of this information, there was a discussion sometime back on how to interpret these charts for direction. What kind of interpretation you would like to make from the information? Some information on Dow direction at the following site: http://members.aol.com/jbusch/marketcharts.html -- Disclaimer: Opinions expressed in this document are those of the author. Digital Equipment Corp., 110 Spit Brook Rd, ZKO2-3/N30, Nashua, NH 03062 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "David F. Cameron" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Question-Opinions Solicited Date: 18 Apr 1997 14:14:05 CDT James wrote (with a lot of snipping): > > Breaking Silence- couldn't stand it. Got a question for you. In the past we I agree with Tom & Zoran - don't take offense. We are hear to learn, your postings are worthwhile. > established - we are to BUY. Now if the stick is extended FIVE percent from > this point we are not to chase the stock and just admit we missed one. > Excuse me but I do NOT understand this at all. If our system is soooo HOT > (and I do think it is!) then how can we cut it so close. Do we not expect > the stock to go but ...(5% higher? 10% higher? No higher?) What gives. I > don't want to buy a stock that at 5% higher I am NOT INTERESTED in owning > any more. I just plain don't understand this at all. I actually dollar cost > average UP buying more and more and more and more of a stock as it > continues to go up. That practice has brought home more BIG BIG BIG returns > in the past and even now in the present in this market and has produced who > knows how many 100 baggers (Lynch term) when I was initially only swinging > for a single. SO, why in the world would you not want to buy a stock that > is FIVE MEASLEY per cent above a PERFECT buy point? Is the system THAT > sensitive? Help me with this one if you can. I must just not understand. I believe historically that after most stocks advance around 25% more or less on a breakout that they start to lose ground. In some cases, in a bull market, they will level off. CANSLIM attempts to catch the major move. In a leveling off (the rarer scenario) a true CANSLIMer would stay in. But... in many cases the breakout will reverse direction after a 25% advance and most CANSLIMers would pocket the profit. Of course what I didn't even mention is that the 25% advance is not all that likely itself. In a good number of cases if a stock moves up 15% on a breakout it starts to retreat shortly thereafter. I'm sure you've noticed these patterns. Craig once commented that it is tough for many true CANSLIMers to ride a stock all the way up. I have a co-worker who bought INTC at 75 'bout a year ago and has been in for the ride. If you can find these, great. But... as Zoran commented - they are rare. FWIW, I agree with you in principle though. In my now ancient intro, I commented that my ideal is a blend of O'Neil and Lynch. The tough part is (if you don't have a buy/sell plan) how to tell what is a minor aberration and what is an actual downturn. My long-term attempts have sometimes gone BIG BIG BIG to use your words - but more often correct 20-25% and I either get out - or get heartburn! Dave Cameron > James > ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "David F. Cameron" Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] Intros Revisited Date: 18 Apr 1997 14:15:53 CDT No response to this yet, so I'll assume that I am going to be searching through my intros and forwarding info on to JVP at joseph@shango.com. Again, if anyone wants a new intro - pass it along to me. This will take a little while. I'm not sure that everyone who posted an intro is still here. e.g. whatever happened to Dean Edwards? Joan Sherman? > > JVP wrote: > > > > I'd be happy to offer my services for this if there are no other takers. > > I can (will) set up pages for this if you send me the info. (I own an ISP + Web servers.) > > http://www.shango.com > > > > > > OK.... I'll dig up what I have and send it to you. If anyone would like to > revise/repost an intro - please do so. Should I send to joseph@shango.com? > Is ASCII file OK? > > Dave Cameron > dcameron@harper.cc.il.us > > > > -----Original Message----- > > From: David F. Cameron [SMTP:dcameron@harper.cc.il.us] > > Sent: Wednesday, April 16, 1997 6:22 AM > > To: canslim@mail.xmission.com > > Cc: dfc@stat.nielsen.com > > Subject: [CANSLIM] Intros Revisited > > > > Last week's talk on introductions made me think of something > > that is done in another group I'm in. On the server which > > sorts and sends the messages, a web site was set up to > > hold a few pertinent facts about each member. > > > > Ideas here could be name, investing experience, field of > > work, and anything else you wanted to share. > > > > Since I've been on this group since day 3 - I've saved > > everyone's intro if they posted one. In fact, I urged > > people to send them early on - kinda like Tom is now - > > but not for very long. > > > > Anyway, Jeff, could this be done. If not, would anyone > > find it worthwhile - I could send the intros - but I > > can't set up a home page. > > > > Dave Cameron > > dcameron@harper.cc.il.us > > > > > > p.s I chekced out mike l's and zoran's home page pix. > > Mike - you've gotta get an updated picture - it looks > > like a refugee from 1979. Zoran - where do you find > > time to learn all that's on your resume!?! > > And yes, I've met Zoran - the picture does look like him. > > > > > > ------ =_NextPart_000_01BC4A53.90E551A0 > > Content-Type: application/ms-tnef > > Content-Transfer-Encoding: base64 > > > > eJ8+IhcRAQaQCAAEAAAAAAABAAEAAQeQBgAIAAAA5AQAAAAAAADoAAEIgAcAGAAAAElQTS5NaWNy > > b3NvZnQgTWFpbC5Ob3RlADEIAQ2ABAACAAAAAgACAAEEkAYA0AEAAAEAAAAQAAAAAwAAMAIAAAAL > > AA8OAAAAAAIB/w8BAAAAUQAAAAAAAACBKx+kvqMQGZ1uAN0BD1QCAAAAAGNhbnNsaW1AbWFpbC54 > > bWlzc2lvbi5jb20AU01UUABjYW5zbGltQG1haWwueG1pc3Npb24uY29tAAAAAB4AAjABAAAABQAA > > AFNNVFAAAAAAHgADMAEAAAAaAAAAY2Fuc2xpbUBtYWlsLnhtaXNzaW9uLmNvbQAAAAMAFQwBAAAA > > AwD+DwYAAAAeAAEwAQAAABwAAAAnY2Fuc2xpbUBtYWlsLnhtaXNzaW9uLmNvbScAAgELMAEAAAAf > > AAAAU01UUDpDQU5TTElNQE1BSUwuWE1JU1NJT04uQ09NAAADAAA5AAAAAAsAQDoBAAAAHgD2XwEA > > AAAaAAAAY2Fuc2xpbUBtYWlsLnhtaXNzaW9uLmNvbQAAAAIB918BAAAAUQAAAAAAAACBKx+kvqMQ > > GZ1uAN0BD1QCAAAAAGNhbnNsaW1AbWFpbC54bWlzc2lvbi5jb20AU01UUABjYW5zbGltQG1haWwu > > eG1pc3Npb24uY29tAAAAAAMA/V8BAAAAAwD/XwAAAAACAfYPAQAAAAQAAAAAAAACwWgBBIABAB8A > > AABSRTogW0NBTlNMSU1dIEludHJvcyBSZXZpc2l0ZWQAHgoBBYADAA4AAADNBwQAEAAKAC8AEQAD > > ADUBASCAAwAOAAAAzQcEABAACgAsABUAAwA2AQEJgAEAIQAAADcwODc1MDk0QzhCMUQwMTE4MDgx > > MDAwMEY4MDJGOEQzANIGAQOQBgA8CAAAIQAAAAsAAgABAAAACwAjAAAAAAADACYAAAAAAAsAKQAA > > AAAAAwAuAAAAAAADADYAAAAAAEAAOQBgrL45jkq8AR4AcAABAAAAHwAAAFJFOiBbQ0FOU0xJTV0g > > SW50cm9zIFJldmlzaXRlZAAAAgFxAAEAAAAWAAAAAbxKjjmhlFCHcbHIEdCAgQAA+AL40wAAHgAe > > DAEAAAAFAAAAU01UUAAAAAAeAB8MAQAAABIAAABKb3NlcGhAc2hhbmdvLmNvbQAAAAMABhAsXUgV > > AwAHEB0EAAAeAAgQAQAAAGUAAABJREJFSEFQUFlUT09GRkVSTVlTRVJWSUNFU0ZPUlRISVNJRlRI > > RVJFQVJFTk9PVEhFUlRBS0VSU0lDQU4oV0lMTClTRVRVUFBBR0VTRk9SVEhJU0lGWU9VU0VORE1F > > VEhFSU5GAAAAAAIBCRABAAAAGwUAABcFAABlBwAATFpGdVbckQd3AAoBAwH3IAKkA+MCAGOCaArA > > c2V0MCAHE4cCgwBQDvZwcnEyD/YmfQqACMggOwlvMjVmNQKACoF1YwBQCwNjAwBBC2BuZzEwMzMB > > C6YgSSdkIGJlAiAPgHBweSB0b8wgbwEgBJAgbRcQD7BwcnZpYweRAhAFwHT6aAQAIAaQGLEEkBaw > > CsCdFrBuF0EZQhcgYWsEkIxzLgqiCoBJIGMDkWIoA/BsbCkX4QVAddRwIAqwZxhdeQhgF+FebhaA > > B4AZMhkAbgIQLmYgG5AbQG93A6ADkUkAU1AgKyBXZWK7F+Maoika5AxgAyBoAkAgcDovL3ch8C5z > > 7w+AFXAe0AWgbSFBAUAg9MMjLwr0bGkzNgFAFRArIwEDYHQFkHQQhDE21CAtJpJPBRBnC4AHQPsF > > 0AeQcxyRJpMjdiWkIwODCzElpmktMTQ0AUDxJPAxODABQAzQKjMgMCpGA2E6DINiD+BEYcsYIBaA > > Rh7gQ2EHgANgAQOgW1NNVFA6ZGsbYC0DQA+BcASQIpBjwi4DEC51c10g5SAwTwZgAjArxyAQZG4H > > kGT4YXksD/ARQAMRJmAxQAAxOTk3IDY6MmURcU0vV1RvK8cbYXOZJPBtQADALvF4bQQBTmkCICKT > > L2ZDYyvHZEkPYEBzAZB0LgMAZYZsHeE1W1N1Ymol0QErx1tDQU5TTEk8TV0WUAIwA2AEIFJl/xgg > > AJAlwAsxKF8paCT0C7ZJGvNMYTcQIHcJ4GvmJwQgAZBsaxdQA6ALgPU6YWQUgHQ1IQQgAMABAO8e > > JAuAPzEZIHMDcA/AQPG+ZxrkGMA3MBkABCBkAiB/HoIfcRoUCcAIYBxgFmBt8x6RHuEgTwOgHmIg > > VD6A/xjQD3Aa5EFwACAEIABwFoBfHeI+4R5xB4EnonMxQGH/PoEgMTsBPoA+UBwGFzAa5P5oBvAW > > gEhQF4AH4C6BQAC/MOACMBhwANBGogbgdQVAemUA0GgeIQbQLpEjekn/AQBJERlTBaAhUBaDJzAH > > gL8xQAuAIIA3EEHRTDB4LoH9CJBuGEAxQCoAN4AWgBdgdRrkdwWwa0gxHgEAcHn/QbNMMDeRHZNJ > > AAIwCYAXIvciMQlwTPtTC4AYQBZRIID/FpEJ8D9CGMND5ACQVUIxEfwgMyaAVXQnoCCAOzU6wH8E > > kB2gMOA+0T+DGQUXEHD/OoBTkkLxRKI6QEtzMUAbQO8IcBygOzUugG8LUB5BU+HPHfIZQURgTEBy > > bBcQLTHtV8BrC4AxECAk8BqQM0HfRGEEIBngB+AoJWJMEUNxrxhzWPJe8AIgZ0z7QVJQ+0kAMTFK > > ARExQE50GMMWof9C4lsTGSBDcTFAUaBOklJBf0LxGuQqAB4BOwBlQQAgaP9FwVzxV8FOZV1WP3QE > > IFfA7WBySRrkG2EnBUAcFUhQ/0owHjEcgkz7LFEWsCzlGuT/Lc8u1SN/XKAiIFsiG1AZUL5rGEBR > > AUwRNOBfIWw+0X1G0noFsGohTgFrFhxwafp4GtVNXxJXwB2hVZIicP8CQEhQHKAFQAORHFAxEFOS > > P3NQJeAIcGeCZsEJAG9rz271XwNIUAlwZnUcoBaw0wNSMfE3OUSiWnJCV7H/RcAZYkLgHZNmckIF > > B3EXIv9c8ArAH2Eb0BixNzA+0S0xJx2hBcAJcHN1B4AhP/YhYjYWgHlIElWDQZF5V38eYnYmQuAH > > kXbyXvQY0G0XTPsa5BIBAINAAAMAEBAAAAAAAwAREAEAAAADAIAQ/////0AABzCA3MjQjUq8AUAA > > CDCA3MjQjUq8AQsAAYAIIAYAAAAAAMAAAAAAAABGAAAAAAOFAAAAAAAAAwAFgAggBgAAAAAAwAAA > > AAAAAEYAAAAAUoUAALcNAAAeAAaACCAGAAAAAADAAAAAAAAARgAAAABUhQAAAQAAAAQAAAA4LjAA > > AwAHgAggBgAAAAAAwAAAAAAAAEYAAAAAAYUAAAAAAAALABCACCAGAAAAAADAAAAAAAAARgAAAAAO > > hQAAAAAAAAMAEYAIIAYAAAAAAMAAAAAAAABGAAAAABCFAAAAAAAAAwASgAggBgAAAAAAwAAAAAAA > > AEYAAAAAEYUAAAAAAAADABWACCAGAAAAAADAAAAAAAAARgAAAAAYhQAAAAAAAB4AJYAIIAYAAAAA > > AMAAAAAAAABGAAAAADaFAAABAAAAAQAAAAAAAAAeACaACCAGAAAAAADAAAAAAAAARgAAAAA3hQAA > > AQAAAAEAAAAAAAAAHgAngAggBgAAAAAAwAAAAAAAAEYAAAAAOIUAAAEAAAABAAAAAAAAAB4APQAB > > AAAABQAAAFJFOiAAAAAAAwANNP03AABGHA== > > > > ------ =_NextPart_000_01BC4A53.90E551A0-- > > > > > ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: [CANSLIM] Microsoft Date: 18 Apr 1997 19:45:50 -0400 Thank you, Microsoft. It's been a long time since we had any logic, rational thinking, or predictably prevail. Finally, one leadership stock gives us good earnings, far better than expected, and the market acts appropriately. Seeing NASDAQ open UP 15 points was a thrill. To have done it on the back of a single stock, no matter how strong, and see the mkt give back most of the gains, doesn't take anything away. Considering many traders don't want to hold a position over the weekend, and it was options expiration as well, on balance a very decent day at least for big caps. Technically not that great, but at least it's a start. And with MSFT hitting several new highs throughout the day, and closing at the high end of its range, is encouraging for Monday, esp with so little in the way of economic reports due. Yeah, I know, it's just one stock, one day, etc etc. But I have been looking for some logic relief here, and will take success where I can find it. tom w Any opinions are strictly my own and not that of my employer. My comments are based on a variety of sources and are intended strictly to assist and inform. In no way am I suggesting a buy, sell, or hold decision based on my comments or observations. I always urge an investor to do his or her own homework, and be sure the risk of the market can be tolerated and any losses accepted gracefully. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "David F. Cameron" Subject: [CANSLIM] Introductions Date: 14 Apr 1997 12:16:15 CDT With all the talk over the last few days about introducing ourselves or re-introducing ourselves - I don't think anyone has come to a conclusion. A modification on what has been done on another group I'm on would be the following. Have a web site where we could enter name, occupation, relevant investing experience, and a line for industry worked in or something. I can't set this up - I can't do a home page for the group or anything-- Jeff, could it be done? FWIW, I've been on this group since day 2 or 3 - so I've seen everyone's intro. I've shared mine on 2 or 3 separate occasions, so I won't go back into it. Dave Cameron dcameron@harper.cc.il.us ---- BTW, I checked out Zoran and Mike's pictures. I've met Zoran so no surprise (although an impressive resume, IMHO). Dunno if Mike's picture is REALLY 20 years old - but if it isn't close - his fashion consciousness is not up to par with his investing savvy... ;-) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: GoldFish Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] backtest in "Invest with the Best" by James O'Schaunussy Date: 18 Apr 1997 00:13:27 -0700 In the book titled "What works on Wall Street", Ch 15, it talks about the Relative Price Strength, It shows high RS tends to outperform the general market with a higher volatility. Ch 16, it talks about 1-year earning gain and strong RS beat the general market. But only small stock can have 1 year earging gain to be exceeding 25%, large stock rarely have 25% earning gain. I think this model fits CANSLIM the best. Although this model beat the market, it tends to have higher standard deviation (higher volatility). In another words, this method is not robust!!! GoldFish "Every stock is a bad stock...." Brenda wrote: > > Someone else wrote, "If you want a stock with great/blow out earnings in > Quarter #2, find one with those earnings in Quarter 1. Surprising how many > times they will repeat." I'm sure all of you know who said that. > JWT > ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Elaine G speaks again Date: 18 Apr 1997 20:30:20 -0400 Fortunately, I had been forewarned about this, so at least didn't puke when I read it for the first time tonite. Thanks for posting (I think) the site. Course it's kinda easy to predict a 5-10% correction when the market (presume she refers to NYSE) has already corrected about 10%. Now at least I understand her claims of her clients enjoying cumulative returns of 1275% over 15 years when she claims that we've had a "3.2% correction on the s&p and 2.8% on the dow". Obviously she's following a different mkt than I, so returns are whatever nrs she decides to use. Frankly I am astonished she has any clients that have been with her for 15 years, are their last names also Garzarelli? At least MS did us the fair service of warning us about the slant/spin of the article by stating that Elaine is "tough, friendly and often - althought not always -right on her pronouncements of the markets direction". (operative words being 'not always') Loved her answer about being used as a contrarian indicator - apparently history will eventually tell us that the mkt really did correct 25% from July 96 then rage upward starting in Jan 97 (apparently second half of 96 was just a "Dallas" based fantasy dream, and I should hold onto all my losers from early 97 until I wake up and discover they really are profitable positions. Hummm, something wrong with this picture, let me adjust the focus, ,,,,,,,,,,, I guess the one piece of good news is that now that she has a fund (where she's the boss), her performance can be judged even more accurately, and it will be more difficult for her to blame her failures on Compustat and corps not reporting data her way. Still, wish she would have come right out and said which way the mkt goes from here. I think she covered every possible alternative, while ending up suggesting we are NOW IN A CORRECTION AND SHOULDN'T GO MUCH LOWER, BUT COULD POSSIBLY! The only nearly specific, definitive point she seemed to make was that the Feds won't raise rates again and might lower rates by the end of the year. Damn, and I was almost ready to drop my assessment of a 50bp hike in May from a probable to a possible! The absolute "pits" part of this article was seeing some of my favorite stocks also on her favorite list (ugghhhhh!). What a poor reason to yank them from my list! Better review my "favorites" list this weekend just in case, who knows they may tank next week! Oh well, all in all, enjoyed the article, good entertainment, got my blood pressure up and I started typing again, so there were some benefits. Guess I am just jealous of her following (and income). tom w ---------- > From: Hemant Rotithor > To: canslim@mail.xmission.com > Subject: [CANSLIM] Elaine G speaks again > Date: Friday, April 18, 1997 9:45 AM > > Look at: http://investor.msn.com/prospect/inter/inter.asp > Tom, that is another datapoint for you to base your future predictions > :-) > > -- > Disclaimer: Opinions expressed in this document are those of the author. > Digital Equipment Corp., 110 Spit Brook Rd, ZKO2-3/N30, Nashua, NH 03062 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: pwahl@postoffice.worldnet.att.net Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Introduction?! Date: 11 Apr 1997 20:34:48 -0800 > From: Dan Sutton > the data from my TS scans. Unfortunately to this point I have only been > mildly successful, but am encouraged by the increasing number of correct > picks even if I don't buy them. As James/Brenda stated there are an Don't feel bad, has been a lousy market for CANSLIM type stuff for most of the last year. Market's go through cycles, the latest was very favorable for large cap stocks as we can see from the success of index funds over the last two years. At some point the growth stocks will return to favor. Recent declines are probably laying the groundwork for an eventual good investing opportunity. > increasing number of small stocks hitting the recent screens (ie. LB > today..bought a few hundred at 7 1/8 closed at 8). I would consider Personally I hate that low priced junk (I know I might be tipping off my bias with a few of those words), and I used to see William O'Neil on tv in Los Angeles, and he always always told callers to stay away from stocks under 10-12 per share. I know people do have success with them, just seems like there is more likely to be problems with stocks at those prices. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Did it turn?? UP? DOWN? NO CHANGE??? Date: 18 Apr 1997 20:00:11 -0400 I prefer to go to DG site and print off the "Mkt Indicators" graph with the overbot/oversold, oscillators, etc graphs for NYSE, NASDAQ, and O'Neill 6000. I get a much better "feel" for what the mkts actually did, and are likely to do, from that. Probably just me, but I assimilate better from a graph than a table. obviously I am visually fixated, probably spending too much time in the wrong kind of websites? tom w ---------- > From: James B. Andrews > To: canslim@xmission.com > Subject: [CANSLIM] Did it turn?? UP? DOWN? NO CHANGE??? > Date: Friday, April 18, 1997 1:35 PM > > A useful tool for all of us to use and learn from would be a daily > report/indicator/semi-graph to reflect the status of the DOW, NASDAQ, and > possibly one other indicator.... The formula used should be from WON' > book(this IS a CANSLIM list).The layout would be roughly as follows,,, > > DOW > Date xx/xx/xx xx/xx/xx xx/xx/xx xx/xx/xx xx/xx/xx > % chg & direction xx.xx +/- xx.xx +/- xx.xx +/- xx.xx +/- xx.xx +/- > volume in millions xxx xxx xxx xxx xxx > Market direction DOWN N/C DOWN N/C DOWN N/C UP CHANGE UP N/C > > Followed by comments indicating if the market indicator is in the process > of changing... > > Anyone want to take this on???? > > Comments???? > ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Question-Opinions Solicited Date: 18 Apr 1997 20:59:27 -0400 James, speaking for myself as both a long term investor of nearly 40 years as well as a stock broker of over 7 years, I have never had a problem in "averaging up" esp since I learned why "averaging down" was such a terrible idea. I have also never been stopped from buying a stock that is up 5% from its "ideal" pivot/entry point, all I needed was the right combo of CANSLIM criteria, good mkt, and a conviction that the stock could go a lot further. Granted, commissions could strip some of the profit potential, but even a small profit was usually better than the interest on a cash position. In truth, I can't recall even O'Neill saying you can't/shouldn't buy up 5% from the ideal. Again, the chart to me tells all. There are undoubtedly some charts where I would not buy up 5%, while others where I would comfortably buy up 10 or even 15% (yeah, for some that is too much, but the chart formation is the single most important factor to me, and the first I look at). A significant portion of the CANSLIM "philosophy" is based on initiating a portion of your position at or around the ideal entry point, then completing the rest of the purchase at higher prices once the stock price confirms your original action. I have written before of the "herd mentality" of analysts, what is also true is that a company's problems can be missed/overlooked/ignored due peer pressure by the entire community of analysts. That is why all should really do their own homework. Analysts are often/usually not putting their own money on the line, much less funds trusted to them by clients. Their job is usually secure unless they really screw up a lot, and consistently. Are we analysts ourselves? Some undoubtedly are, myself included. Should we go to the SEC site and look at the latest 10Q or 10K before buying, paying particular attention to all the comments, footnotes, narrative, year to year comparisons, etc? Yes. You don't have to be an accountant to spot discrepancies and most neg type comments are often buried in the narrative. Don't understand, not sure if there is a problem? Post the question to the group, someone may know, or have the answer, or go research it for you and give you an opinion. Point is, yes we can do our own individual analysis, however remember that O'Neill/CANSLIM is not based on due diligence, it uses a consensus of reports from analysts, so if they are collectively wrong, then the conclusions you draw from CANSLIM characteristics are likely wrong as well. tom w ---------- > From: Brenda > To: canslim > Subject: [CANSLIM] Question-Opinions Solicited > Date: Friday, April 18, 1997 10:48 AM > > Breaking Silence- couldn't stand it. Got a question for you. In the past we > know that analysts records are not all that impressive. Don't remember the > name of the stock but what happened to it caused me to no longer care about > what First Call had or has to say. Their were 38 analysts following the > stock. 30 had strong buys on the stock at 9am CST. At 9:15 CST the stock > was 1/2 what it was 15 minutes ago. With this kind of activity I don't need > happens is the stock goes higher. When we begin to say a stock is too high, > too far extended, are we not becoming analysts ourselves? Where do we get > question - After a proper formation, proper pivot point and a buy point is > established - we are to BUY. Now if the stick is extended FIVE percent from > this point we are not to chase the stock and just admit we missed one. > any more. I just plain don't understand this at all. I actually dollar cost > average UP buying more and more and more and more of a stock as it ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Intros Revisited Date: 18 Apr 1997 20:35:59 -0400 David, I for one appreciate your offer to help set this up, I think it's a good idea. Aside from checking against the present membership of the group, guess the best answer is to set up what you have, and then encourage the membership to go check their respective intros. How hard will it be to update, or create if none there, an intro? Can this be set up so each member can be responsible for his/her own intro content? What about new members, can it be structured so that a new member will create an "intro" file upon joining the group? I'll be glad to write up a new intro if that will save you time searching for my original one (don't even know what I said then, or which personality was typing at that time?) tom w ---------- > From: David F. Cameron > To: canslim@mail.xmission.com > Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] Intros Revisited > Date: Friday, April 18, 1997 3:15 PM > > No response to this yet, so I'll assume that I am going to be searching > through my intros and forwarding info on to JVP at joseph@shango.com. > Again, if anyone wants a new intro - pass it along to me. This will > take a little while. I'm not sure that everyone who posted an intro > is still here. e.g. whatever happened to Dean Edwards? Joan Sherman? > > > > JVP wrote: > > > > > > I'd be happy to offer my services for this if there are no other takers. > > > I can (will) set up pages for this if you send me the info. (I own an ISP + Web servers.) > > > http://www.shango.com > > > ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Fw: [CANSLIM] What Works On Wall Street Date: 18 Apr 1997 21:11:34 -0400 My ISP informs me tonight that this never got delivered (note the date). I seem to recall that I saw it come back to me, but consider its content worthwhile (yeah, I know, I wrote it so am biased) that I will try to repost on the off chance that some didn't get it. tom w ---------- > From: Tom Worley > To: canslim@mail.xmission.com > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] What Works On Wall Street > Date: Saturday, April 12, 1997 9:55 AM > > Not sure how he backtested CANSLIM, but here are the figures from > an old NSMI book (NSMI was O'Neill's institutional recommendations > picks, they came out live throughout the week by fax). > > The first figure is the NSMI performance, the second is the S&P500, > all figures are in percent, plus is assumed unless indicated as > neg. > 1987 .6/.05 > 1988 22.45/12.4 > 1989 53.12/27.26 > 1990 -3.51/-6.98 > 1991 92.95/23.67 > 1992 27.73/7.2 > 1993 29.02/7.04 > 1994 12.1/-1.55 > > He did have some down years, but as has been said before, CANSLIM > works best in a mkt trending up. The key is to limit the losses, > then make a lot of money when the mkt favors you. > > tom w > ---------- > > From: PPNewell@aol.com > > To: canslim@mail.xmission.com > > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] What Works On Wall Street > > Date: Friday, April 11, 1997 10:03 PM > > > > I read some info from his book something like "Invest like the > masters" > > anyhow he backed tested CANSLIM using non subjective criteria > and came up > > with a 30% annual return from 85-92, not exactly the best times > due to 2 > > downdrafts. No, year ever had a loss. > > > > Peter Newell > ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] ADE Corp Date: 18 Apr 1997 19:53:13 -0400 Sounds like me, trying to outguess the professional analysts, Patrick. I'm quieting down lately, not happy with my accuracy rate or the predictability of the mkt/stocks. I suspect the low PE is in fact due to the projected low growth. If you're right, could make it a volatile winner for you. To follow your theory, I would encourage you to do your own due diligence, call the company, ask how they feel about the analysts projections (they won't tell you what they expect to do, but often will tell you if they agree with an outsider's projections). Look at other cos in the same group, do they show similiar growth decelleration? Just remember, analysts' estimates are often based on what a co has told them. There may be a reason they want the analysts to lowball the estimates, either to make them look good; to give them easy targets to beat; or because they know business is slowing (damn, there I go again being cynical! sorry). I have found "oddball" fiscal qtrs and years don't help either. tom w ---------- > From: pwahl@postoffice.worldnet.att.net > To: canslim@mail.xmission.com > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] ADE Corp > Date: Friday, April 18, 1997 1:10 AM > > > From: GoldFish > > Thanks for the feedback, first of all. > > > 4) 1997 E=$1.43; 1998 E=$1.55; about 8% increase. > > It does not look like a high growth company to me. > > If I put a lot of faith in that 1998 number, then I would agree with > you. However, I trust the recent growth numbers, around +35% for the > last few quarters more than the projections of next years earnings. > Certainly is something to be wary of, but until I see evidence of a > slowdown, I'll keep an eye on it anyway. A possible slowdown > ahead might explain the low P/E of 13. Since ADEX is on one of those > oddball earnings schedules, year end is April, earnings for next > quarter not due to be reported until late June. > ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Craig Griffin Subject: Re: [CANSLIM]Returning to a discussion of CANSLIM Date: 11 Apr 1997 18:13:42 -0400 (EDT) Douglas, Luke Lang has already given you some great ideas re: filtering. I do look at the chart pattern first (see my parallel response to Tapas). But I too am a strong believer in Relative Strength, all else being equal. At 07:06 AM 4/10/97 -0400, you wrote: >What do you consider to be new? I like to look for something new such as new >products or a new way of doing business or new markets rather than a new >earnings report or another change in management. What do you look for? All of the above. A new high in price (from a valid base) is another New that O'Neil refers to. >Remembering that leaders are sometimes distinguished by the arrows in their >backs, what kind of industry leadership do you look for and how important is >it in relation to other CANSLIM criteria? Very important. The leaders can usually be found by looking at the top two or three stocks in a group (those with the strongest relative strength). Note that this is how the 5 other stocks in the same group is listed on each DG chart. Those are the group leaders. Another way to think about leaders is to know something about the group. Quick who is the leading PC manufacturer? I would say Dell or Compaq, with Gateway third. Take a look at the charts of all three over the last two years and you will see who the true leader is. All of them look good because they are all leaders in the group, but one stands out. >How much weight do you give to fund ownership? I like for the stock to have some fund ownership (at least 1%, preferably 5-6%). Stocks with more than about 25% to 30% fund ownership tend to not have as much room for additional fund interest to drive them up. So I try not to buy stocks with more than about 25%. But there are times when I make an exception. >Does the general stock market override all selections? I've noticed in Daily >Graphs (OTC) that there are some stocks that have held their own or actually >risen even during the current correction (not many but there are some). Yes, the market does override all selections. There will always be counter trend stocks. But in a general market decline it becomes very hard to find them. When you do find them they tend to not go up very much. And when you make a mistake, the market tends to take you to the woodshed. Better to go long when the odds are more in your favor. There are exceptions, but you gotta be darned good to pick them and ride them very far. >How about it experienced CANSLIM folks. What do you think is most important >and least important? When you read Investors' Business Daily what do you look >for first? Sorry, I ran out of steam on this one, maybe someone else can give you some opinions here. Regards, Craig ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] The market and earnings Date: 12 Apr 1997 09:45:18 -0400 As to the eagle eyes, I was doing better before the tri-focals broke, gotta find the time to see the eye dr and get a new Rx. I've got space on my monitor for about 50 or so symbols (actually I recently upgraded everyone's software and now have the capacity for about 800, but haven't had the time to read the manual and learn how to use it!). I keep a nr of symbols up there (long bond, gold, bond futures, s&p100 and 500, dow30, nasdaq, russell 200, chips index, internet index, etc) plus I keep about 25 tech stocks up there, all as guages on the mkt (since I consider techs as the single most important leadership group). Of course I keep my current portfolio up there as well as any I am "watching", often ones mentioned here. During the earnings cycle, I also stick up ones that reported after the close with huge neg or pos reports to see how they act the next day. If I ever get the new software implemented, then I plan to go to work a little earlier and do the same for the ones that reported in the morning before the open. I never predicted a gap up, actually I expected all to open flat or gap down, as that has been the pattern. But if I had looked at the chart on DS, I probably would have singled it out as the exception. I doubt I would have ever guessed on KEA gapping up, chart too sloppy. Of course, on DS you would have had to position yourself the prior day or sooner, if you waited for the earnings report it was already too late and I wouldn't have chased it in this mkt. What do we do now? Choices are stay in cash, use a different style of investing, work even harder at studying charts and finding the few legitimate CANSLIM candidates out there (there are some, but next to none in the tech groups, despite its spread MFAC moved up and hit a new high yesterday, and MLHR also held up well on light vol for two examples that have been mentioned here). Some tech stocks that also held up, but haven't looked at their chart recently, include GATE, HWP, IBM, MRVC. ALTR staged a reversal it appears, and BARR was up for the day. I meant to print off the stocks that hit new highs (there weren't many) and study their charts this weekend. For me, I will play the lottery tonight and hope I can pick good nrs there. tom w ---------- > From: GoldFish > To: canslim@mail.xmission.com > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] The market and earnings > Date: Saturday, April 12, 1997 12:45 AM > > Tom Worley wrote: > > > Tom: > I was watching them. I am very impreessive with your eagle eyes. > Questions: > 1) What on earth that you are able to spot them? > 2) How can you predict them to gap up? - I didn't > 3) All of them have strong earning, but only two of them jump up, why? > If earning is that important, then they should all jump up in > price right? > ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: pwahl@postoffice.worldnet.att.net Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Friday's Market Date: 11 Apr 1997 22:58:39 -0800 > From: Zoran Mitrovski > Ed Seykota from the Market Wizards trades his own system from his > house on lake Tahoe, as well. I also have a buddy of mine at I think Larry Williams of "how I made $1,000,000 in 1 year" fame also trades a system, I believe, which is actually in the form of a number of patterns that occur in the S&P from time to time. > Where did you see her speak yesterday? I am in the Omega user group out here and go to the meetings sometimes, and the guys are recruiting her to give a class on using Tradestation and designing a system. This was a sort of get acquainted meeting for the group (she lives out here) and her. > I wonder why she is selling it, and if so WHAT is she selling. As mentioned above, she was going to teach a class, so she was selling her time, sort of. She charges $300 per hour, unless you reserve larger blocks of time, then she charges $250 per hour. Also, she struck me as a person who just likes to work. She said she works something like 16 hours a day. I think successful people are like that. She does not reveal her S&P system, BTW. I think what she sells for 50K is a system for trading bonds. (She calls one of her systems the Solar System, get it - Sunny, Solar) > If I had my own system chugging along nicely for as long as > 9 years I don't think I'd be offering it to anybody for ANY amount > of money. I'd also keep quiet about it. I'm sure there are > many folks out there who are doing their own thing in the Its a funny thing, but you can hand people money making trades, and they just will not use them. Another guy and myself out here worked quite a bit on some ideas, and both of us felt proprietary about them, but I finally realized that I could give them to other people and they would not use them. An example is the Larry Williams Oops trade in futures, which is great, and no one I know that trades futures uses it, although all are familiar with it. I think trading a system is contrary to human nature, so unless someone really believe in it a person will not use a system. > While here...I was reading the specifications for SuperCharts 4.0 > ($200) and TradeStation 4.0 ($1000 day-to-day, $2200 intraday) > on www.omegaresearch.com and I had hard time discovering what more > does TS offer than SC as to justify such a price difference? > Both seem to offer custom system design and back-testing. > I should just call them and ask I guess. Silly me. I think Linda Thomas already gave a pretty good answer to this. I have TS 4.0 (end of day version) and Metastock (sheesh, talk about overkill). Tradestation allows for much more sophisticated backtesting than SC. And TS will allow testing on tick data. Also, the real-time version will let you put your systems on various charts of whatever (bonds, S&P futures, wheat,etc), and it will beep at you when a signal is generated. Tradestation's main claim to fame is what they call the Powereditor, which is pretty much a programming language, sort of Pascal-like. Has arrays, loops, the works. I know this is getting far off topic, sorry folks. Anyone who has any questions should maybe ask me in a private E-Mail. (I'll pass along the oops trade thing. We might have one on MOnday.) Patrick Wahl ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Elaine G speaks again Date: 18 Apr 1997 20:30:20 -0400 Fortunately, I had been forewarned about this, so at least didn't puke when I read it for the first time tonite. Thanks for posting (I think) the site. Course it's kinda easy to predict a 5-10% correction when the market (presume she refers to NYSE) has already corrected about 10%. Now at least I understand her claims of her clients enjoying cumulative returns of 1275% over 15 years when she claims that we've had a "3.2% correction on the s&p and 2.8% on the dow". Obviously she's following a different mkt than I, so returns are whatever nrs she decides to use. Frankly I am astonished she has any clients that have been with her for 15 years, are their last names also Garzarelli? At least MS did us the fair service of warning us about the slant/spin of the article by stating that Elaine is "tough, friendly and often - althought not always -right on her pronouncements of the markets direction". (operative words being 'not always') Loved her answer about being used as a contrarian indicator - apparently history will eventually tell us that the mkt really did correct 25% from July 96 then rage upward starting in Jan 97 (apparently second half of 96 was just a "Dallas" based fantasy dream, and I should hold onto all my losers from early 97 until I wake up and discover they really are profitable positions. Hummm, something wrong with this picture, let me adjust the focus, ,,,,,,,,,,, I guess the one piece of good news is that now that she has a fund (where she's the boss), her performance can be judged even more accurately, and it will be more difficult for her to blame her failures on Compustat and corps not reporting data her way. Still, wish she would have come right out and said which way the mkt goes from here. I think she covered every possible alternative, while ending up suggesting we are NOW IN A CORRECTION AND SHOULDN'T GO MUCH LOWER, BUT COULD POSSIBLY! The only nearly specific, definitive point she seemed to make was that the Feds won't raise rates again and might lower rates by the end of the year. Damn, and I was almost ready to drop my assessment of a 50bp hike in May from a probable to a possible! The absolute "pits" part of this article was seeing some of my favorite stocks also on her favorite list (ugghhhhh!). What a poor reason to yank them from my list! Better review my "favorites" list this weekend just in case, who knows they may tank next week! Oh well, all in all, enjoyed the article, good entertainment, got my blood pressure up and I started typing again, so there were some benefits. Guess I am just jealous of her following (and income). tom w ---------- > From: Hemant Rotithor > To: canslim@mail.xmission.com > Subject: [CANSLIM] Elaine G speaks again > Date: Friday, April 18, 1997 9:45 AM > > Look at: http://investor.msn.com/prospect/inter/inter.asp > Tom, that is another datapoint for you to base your future predictions > :-) > > -- > Disclaimer: Opinions expressed in this document are those of the author. > Digital Equipment Corp., 110 Spit Brook Rd, ZKO2-3/N30, Nashua, NH 03062 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Craig Griffin Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] CANSLIM Question Date: 11 Apr 1997 18:13:34 -0400 (EDT) Tapas, At 07:48 PM 4/10/97 -0400, you wrote: > 1. What is the rationale behind choosing a canslim stock which has a > chart pattern CUP and HANDLE? This is a pattern that shows that the weak holders have gotten out of the stock (as the left side of the cup is formed, there is more selling than buying). Then the right side of the cup forms and takes the price back to nearly the old high. Many sell here as they get out even or with a small profit from earlier purchases. The handle forms as the price drifts sideways and the volume drys up (sellers are disappearing and buyers are not yet willing to pay more than the old high). Eventually, if the price breaks out to a new high on 150% ADV, we buy (Canslim'rs) because the sellers are mostly gone and the buyers are in control. Also this shows that the market is ready to pay higher prices for this stock. The higher the volume on the breakout the better, shows lots of buyers. The other basing patterns (flat base, rolling base, saucer, double bottom), all create more or less the same result. Sometimes you have more of one base than another in the market. All can be equally good to buy from on a b/o (breakout). > 2. Does any good mutual fund manager follow canslim method? > I am interested to find out volume investing works for canslim. Mutual funds are too big (too much money to manage and must own too many stocks) to do Canslim. Canslim cannot be done in a mutual fund (IMHO), although some funds may use CANSLIM criteria as part of their selection method. > 3. We have various experienced investors, who have tried > different investing methods. I understand that 'canslim' > matches personal likings and personality. However I curious > to know how do you compare your investment return(%), from other > methodology vs. canslim. Canslim allows you a better understanding of the market. The returns depend on the practitioner and the market. No other method allows the possibility of such stellar returns and at the same time limits risk, without being too complicated. Many other methods allow long term investors to do well in the market, but the possibility of stellar returns is minimal. Take Peter Lynch for example. Very simple approach, returns are not likely to be stellar, but may well beat the S&P 500. Same might be said for Motley Fools (although I think they lucked into a couple of stellar stocks in their model portfolio). I think CANSLIM is at least a good starting point. Once you understand CANSLIM, many elements can be applied to other methods with a longer term orientation to improve returns (IMO). > 4. How do you pick canslim stocks. Do you go through graphs of all > stocks to find out good canslim candidate, or you set query > criteria e.g P/E,RS,EPS Rank and the charting S/W(e.g DG) outputs > the stock? Use DG to look for good chart patterns (bases). Ignore all stocks that are more than about 15% from the top of their base. Pay special attention to bases that look ready to breakout (tightening patterns). THEN do second level filtering: look at all of the other CANSLIM characteristics. This way you can eliminate 95% of all stocks in DG just by glancing at the chart patterns. Of course next week you will have a slightly changed set of candidates as stocks that were not quite ready the week before become ready. Remember, however, that in a market like this one you should be in cash because breakouts will tend to fail. One must wait for an upward trending market to buy CANSLIM stocks. > Thanks, > - Tapas You are welcome. Craig ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Surindra J. Singh" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] "m" in CANSLIM Date: 13 Apr 1997 16:28:13 -0400 This is a multi-part message in MIME format. ------=_NextPart_000_01BC4827.AF345C60 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable I have been enjoying your posts. Keep up with the good work. I am pretty = new in the investment field and heavily invested in Tech stocks, which = you are way way down. ---- I definitely agree there is a "herd mentality" among analysts. There is also the continuing challenge to be a "Garzarelli", to spot that overlooked stock that will have explosive earnings and nobody noticed or to spot the high flyer with inflated earnings or obsolete inventory or product about to fall out of favor, and be the first to slash earnings, get boo'd temporarily, then proven right later. Overall, tho, I believe the greatest motivation is to look correct, so I don't think they are always that optimistic in their projections. I committed this same mistake when I estimated core PPI. My reviews and instinct told me it would be higher than the 0.2 I reported, but since all these professional analysts were calling for unchanged, then changed to up 0.1 only the day before, I stayed conservative and didn't raise my estimate according to what I really thought would happen. You tend to be remembered far more for when you are wrong than when you are right. tom w ---------- > From: pwahl@postoffice.worldnet.att.net > To: canslim@mail.xmission.com > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] "m" in CANSLIM > Date: Sunday, April 13, 1997 2:04 AM > > > From: pwahl@postoffice.worldnet.att.net > > > > From: GoldFish > > > A word or two on analysts and their forecasts: I think they tend to > be fairly optimistic, I think in most cases they see things > continuing as they are, so project earnings to continue on > whatever the current pace is. Also, (someone suggested this to me) > they see other analysts forecasts and tend to lump theirs in the > middle of the pack, their idea being that if they are wrong, everyone > else was too, so they can't get in trouble with the boss. >=20 ------=_NextPart_000_01BC4827.AF345C60 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable

I have been enjoying your posts. Keep up with the good work. I am = pretty new=20 in the investment field and heavily invested in Tech stocks, which you = are way=20 way down.

----
From: Tom Worley <stkguru@netside.net>
To: canslim@mail.xmission.com
Date: Sunday, April 13, 1997 8:39 AM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] "m" in CANSLIM

I definitely agree there is a "herd=20 mentality" among analysts.
There is also the continuing challenge to be a "Garzarelli", = to
spot that overlooked stock that will have explosive earnings and
nobody noticed or to spot the high flyer with inflated earnings or
obsolete inventory or product about to fall out of favor, and be
the first to slash earnings, get boo'd temporarily, then proven
right later.
Overall, tho, I believe the greatest motivation is to look correct,
so I don't think they are always that optimistic in their
projections. I committed this same mistake when I estimated core
PPI. My reviews and instinct told me it would be higher than the
0.2 I reported, but since all these professional analysts were
calling for unchanged, then changed to up 0.1 only the day before,
I stayed conservative and didn't raise my estimate according to
what I really thought would happen. You tend to be remembered far
more for when you are wrong than when you are right.

tom w
----------
> From: pwahl@postoffice.worldn= et.att.net
> To: canslim@mail.xmission.com > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] "m" in CANSLIM
> Date: Sunday, April 13, 1997 2:04 AM
>
> > From:          pwahl@postoffice.worldn= et.att.net
>
> > > = GoldFish <shyu@worldnet.att.net>
> >
> A word or two on analysts and their forecasts: I think they = tend
to
> be fairly optimistic, I think in most cases they see things
> continuing as they are, so project earnings to continue on
> whatever the current pace is.  Also, (someone suggested this = to
me)
> they see other analysts forecasts and tend to lump theirs in = the
> middle of the pack, their idea being that if they are wrong,
everyone
> else was too, so they can't get in trouble with the boss.
> ------=_NextPart_000_01BC4827.AF345C60-- ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Elaine G speaks again Date: 18 Apr 1997 20:30:20 -0400 Fortunately, I had been forewarned about this, so at least didn't puke when I read it for the first time tonite. Thanks for posting (I think) the site. Course it's kinda easy to predict a 5-10% correction when the market (presume she refers to NYSE) has already corrected about 10%. Now at least I understand her claims of her clients enjoying cumulative returns of 1275% over 15 years when she claims that we've had a "3.2% correction on the s&p and 2.8% on the dow". Obviously she's following a different mkt than I, so returns are whatever nrs she decides to use. Frankly I am astonished she has any clients that have been with her for 15 years, are their last names also Garzarelli? At least MS did us the fair service of warning us about the slant/spin of the article by stating that Elaine is "tough, friendly and often - althought not always -right on her pronouncements of the markets direction". (operative words being 'not always') Loved her answer about being used as a contrarian indicator - apparently history will eventually tell us that the mkt really did correct 25% from July 96 then rage upward starting in Jan 97 (apparently second half of 96 was just a "Dallas" based fantasy dream, and I should hold onto all my losers from early 97 until I wake up and discover they really are profitable positions. Hummm, something wrong with this picture, let me adjust the focus, ,,,,,,,,,,, I guess the one piece of good news is that now that she has a fund (where she's the boss), her performance can be judged even more accurately, and it will be more difficult for her to blame her failures on Compustat and corps not reporting data her way. Still, wish she would have come right out and said which way the mkt goes from here. I think she covered every possible alternative, while ending up suggesting we are NOW IN A CORRECTION AND SHOULDN'T GO MUCH LOWER, BUT COULD POSSIBLY! The only nearly specific, definitive point she seemed to make was that the Feds won't raise rates again and might lower rates by the end of the year. Damn, and I was almost ready to drop my assessment of a 50bp hike in May from a probable to a possible! The absolute "pits" part of this article was seeing some of my favorite stocks also on her favorite list (ugghhhhh!). What a poor reason to yank them from my list! Better review my "favorites" list this weekend just in case, who knows they may tank next week! Oh well, all in all, enjoyed the article, good entertainment, got my blood pressure up and I started typing again, so there were some benefits. Guess I am just jealous of her following (and income). tom w ---------- > From: Hemant Rotithor > To: canslim@mail.xmission.com > Subject: [CANSLIM] Elaine G speaks again > Date: Friday, April 18, 1997 9:45 AM > > Look at: http://investor.msn.com/prospect/inter/inter.asp > Tom, that is another datapoint for you to base your future predictions > :-) > > -- > Disclaimer: Opinions expressed in this document are those of the author. > Digital Equipment Corp., 110 Spit Brook Rd, ZKO2-3/N30, Nashua, NH 03062 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Michael R. Jeffers" Subject: [CANSLIM] Quick Pick Analysis Date: 18 Apr 1997 19:04:29 Group, After all I've read from this group, I see I'm not the only one with little to no time. So when I read that WON takes about 30 mins. each morn to review IBD (this info was gathered from his AOL chat session posted here), I tried to emulate. This morning's paper NASDAQ Stocks with Greatest Rise in Volume showed, among others, Knight Transportation (KNGT) boldfaced. A look to the "Groups with the Greatest % of stocks making new highs" showed me that both Airplane and Truck transportation stocks have a ranking. Their Industry groups are in the top 10, and have improved over 3 months and 1 week ago. All of the graphs on that page look pretty weak, except for th DJ Transports. Get on the 'Net, and look at a Yahoo chart of KNGT. Seems that it has some sort of Base that it is breaking out of. At this point I bought at market. I have since learned the following: EPS = 93 Rel Stg = 92 Annual growth for the past 4 years has been 76% to 63% to 31% to 22% increases 9.151 Million Shares Group Str = A Accm/Dist = B Trailing P/E = 33 P/E based on projected Earnings = 26 Chart pattern I see is a base from Feb to early Apr. The price range of base is $22.50 to $23.50. First b/o was on 9 Apr with a closing price of 24.125. Confirmation b/o was on 17 Apr with closing price of 25.50. I bought at $26.50, 10% over the first b/o and 4% over the second one. Now the question: Must we use the WHOLE market when judging "M"? We buy stocks based on what industry they are in, shouldn't we use that industry as our market guide? The way I read it, if we limit ourselves to the whole market, we will miss out on the leaders advancement, and be out of the market for some extended times. I've never been through a Bear market, but my military training has shown me that if you can succeed when most are failing, than you will excel when others are just getting by. Plus, I have a chemical dependency for the Market. But don't we all? (smile) Thanks in advance for any and all input. Just Little 'Ole Me, Michael R. Jeffers ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Michael A Langston Subject: re: [CANSLIM] Introductions Date: 18 Apr 1997 22:59:17 -0400 dave writes: > Dunno if Mike's picture is REALLY 20 years old - but if it > isn't close - his fashion consciousness is not up to par > with his investing savvy... ;-) hey, i thought you guys were through busting my chops over my pic -- or maybe this post is a repeat, am seeing a lot of em tonite for some reason mike ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Brenda" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] CANSLIM Question Date: 18 Apr 1997 23:53:28 -0500 ---------- > From: Craig Griffin > To: canslim@mail.xmission.com > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] CANSLIM Question > Date: Friday, April 11, 1997 5:13 PM > > Tapas, > > At 07:48 PM 4/10/97 -0400, you wrote: > > 1. What is the rationale behind choosing a canslim stock which has a > > chart pattern CUP and HANDLE? > This is a pattern that shows that the weak holders have gotten out of the > stock (as the left side of the cup is formed, there is more selling than > buying). Then the right side of the cup forms and takes the price back to > nearly the old high. Many sell here as they get out even or with a small > profit from earlier purchases. The handle forms as the price drifts > sideways and the volume drys up (sellers are disappearing and buyers are not > yet willing to pay more than the old high). Eventually, if the price breaks > out to a new high on 150% ADV, we buy (Canslim'rs) because the sellers are > mostly gone and the buyers are in control. Also this shows that the market > is ready to pay higher prices for this stock. The higher the volume on the > breakout the better, shows lots of buyers. The other basing patterns (flat > base, rolling base, saucer, double bottom), all create more or less the same > result. Sometimes you have more of one base than another in the market. > All can be equally good to buy from on a b/o (breakout). > > > > 2. Does any good mutual fund manager follow canslim method? > > I am interested to find out volume investing works for canslim. > Mutual funds are too big (too much money to manage and must own too many > stocks) to do Canslim. Canslim cannot be done in a mutual fund (IMHO), > although some funds may use CANSLIM criteria as part of their selection > method. > > > 3. We have various experienced investors, who have tried > > different investing methods. I understand that 'canslim' > > matches personal likings and personality. However I curious > > to know how do you compare your investment return(%), from other > > methodology vs. canslim. > Canslim allows you a better understanding of the market. The returns depend > on the practitioner and the market. No other method allows the possibility > of such stellar returns and at the same time limits risk, without being too > complicated. Many other methods allow long term investors to do well in the > market, but the possibility of stellar returns is minimal. Take Peter Lynch > for example. Very simple approach, returns are not likely to be stellar, > but may well beat the S&P 500. Same might be said for Motley Fools > (although I think they lucked into a couple of stellar stocks in their model > portfolio). I think CANSLIM is at least a good starting point. Once you > understand CANSLIM, many elements can be applied to other methods with a > longer term orientation to improve returns (IMO). > > > 4. How do you pick canslim stocks. Do you go through graphs of all > > stocks to find out good canslim candidate, or you set query > > criteria e.g P/E,RS,EPS Rank and the charting S/W(e.g DG) outputs > > the stock? > Use DG to look for good chart patterns (bases). Ignore all stocks that are > more than about 15% from the top of their base. Pay special attention to > bases that look ready to breakout (tightening patterns). THEN do second > level filtering: look at all of the other CANSLIM characteristics. This way > you can eliminate 95% of all stocks in DG just by glancing at the chart > patterns. Of course next week you will have a slightly changed set of > candidates as stocks that were not quite ready the week before become ready. > Remember, however, that in a market like this one you should be in cash > because breakouts will tend to fail. One must wait for an upward trending > market to buy CANSLIM stocks. > > > Thanks, > > - Tapas > > You are welcome. > > Craig > ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Did it turn?? UP? DOWN? NO CHANGE??? Date: 18 Apr 1997 20:00:11 -0400 I prefer to go to DG site and print off the "Mkt Indicators" graph with the overbot/oversold, oscillators, etc graphs for NYSE, NASDAQ, and O'Neill 6000. I get a much better "feel" for what the mkts actually did, and are likely to do, from that. Probably just me, but I assimilate better from a graph than a table. obviously I am visually fixated, probably spending too much time in the wrong kind of websites? tom w ---------- > From: James B. Andrews > To: canslim@xmission.com > Subject: [CANSLIM] Did it turn?? UP? DOWN? NO CHANGE??? > Date: Friday, April 18, 1997 1:35 PM > > A useful tool for all of us to use and learn from would be a daily > report/indicator/semi-graph to reflect the status of the DOW, NASDAQ, and > possibly one other indicator.... The formula used should be from WON' > book(this IS a CANSLIM list).The layout would be roughly as follows,,, > > DOW > Date xx/xx/xx xx/xx/xx xx/xx/xx xx/xx/xx xx/xx/xx > % chg & direction xx.xx +/- xx.xx +/- xx.xx +/- xx.xx +/- xx.xx +/- > volume in millions xxx xxx xxx xxx xxx > Market direction DOWN N/C DOWN N/C DOWN N/C UP CHANGE UP N/C > > Followed by comments indicating if the market indicator is in the process > of changing... > > Anyone want to take this on???? > > Comments???? > ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Brenda" Subject: [CANSLIM] The New Top Five Date: 19 Apr 1997 00:25:10 -0500 Ok Group! Just finished grading all the stocks. I'm not too terribly excited about this list and I prefer it when stocks grade out 98 or higher. Highest grade was 96.5 and that is about 84 miles from a grade of 98. Here are the top five which did manage to squeak out with a grade of 95+: SEWY, ASTSF, MWL, SFDS and DS. FULL was sixth but I only track the top five weekly. The April 4th group are down 1.4% collectively as of the close today. MLHR down 2.6%, GDYS down 0.5%, PSUN down 4.4%, ASTSF up 7.4%, TUES (closed out at down 6.6%). Tuesday ran up and then fell back 15% from high. I guess to just have 4 stocks still "alive" picked two weeks ago is almost a plus in itself. Tonight while going thru TC2000 saw lots of activity with the beaten, battered, lagard and cheap stocks. I have not found money going there when CANSLIM practices are working. Hate to mention this but anybody hear what Mr. Templeton is reported to have said today? Per CNBC - Get out and stay out. Put your money in T-bills. Guess that puts Mr. O and Mr T on the same side and Ms. G on the other side. Right now, I REALLY, REALLY, REALLY hate to admit that I am on Ms. G's side. Anybody who knows how I feel about her knows that is the last place I want to be. I will be doing some serious re-evaluating this week-end. Get on the side with Mr. O and Mr T and even if you are wrong you were with some fine company. Tom? Going to reconsider DELL? And, how about that proposed rate increase? You did mean DECREASE right? Amazing and she makes a salary in the SEVEN figure category. More power to her. Think Barnum and Bailey (if any of you are old enough to know who I am talking about) had a great saying about people that would account for her salary. Got to go. Working hard but just wanted to post this and let ya'll take a look at this week's "B E S T ". Wish I could have typed that in "shakey" print. Have a good week-end. James ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: pwahl@postoffice.worldnet.att.net Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Question-Opinions Solicited Date: 18 Apr 1997 23:46:37 -0800 > From: "Brenda" James, use those paragraph things once in a while. Now, to answer your question, maybe... > established - we are to BUY. Now if the stick is extended FIVE percent from > this point we are not to chase the stock and just admit we missed one. > Excuse me but I do NOT understand this at all. If our system is soooo HOT > (and I do think it is!) then how can we cut it so close. Do we not expect > the stock to go but ...(5% higher? 10% higher? No higher?) What gives. I > don't want to buy a stock that at 5% higher I am NOT INTERESTED in owning > any more. I just plain don't understand this at all. I actually dollar cost I think within 5% of the base is considered ok, but at 10% the problem is that you need to use a wider stop because a meaningful price move, say down to the bottom of the base, is going to be a larger percentage from your buy point. If you use the usual 8%, you are more likely to be shaken out on a price reaction than you would be when the price is just emerging from the base. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: pwahl@postoffice.worldnet.att.net Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] ADE Corp Date: 18 Apr 1997 23:46:37 -0800 > From: "Tom Worley" > they show similiar growth decelleration? Just remember, analysts' > estimates are often based on what a co has told them. There may be > a reason they want the analysts to lowball the estimates, either to > make them look good; to give them easy targets to beat; or because > they know business is slowing (damn, there I go again being > cynical! sorry). Thanks for the advice. I have called companies occasionally and tried to pry information out of them about analysts estimates. They are fairly close mouthed about offering much new information, and they definitely try to be as positive as they reasonably can be. Patrick Wahl ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: [CANSLIM] Dup posts last night Date: 19 Apr 1997 08:45:42 -0400 Sorry about all the dup responses last night, folks. Apparently my ISP hiccupped a couple of times. For once, I waited till this morning to resend ones that looked like they didn't make it out, only to discover that were sent twice. Oh well. At least it wasn't majordomo's fault this time. tom w ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] ADE Corp Date: 19 Apr 1997 08:43:33 -0400 The way to phrase the question, at least worked for me as a broker, is "I understand that so and so has projected earnings of ___ for (qtr/year), how comfortable are you with this projection?" Since this projection is well under their recent growth rate, the followup question is "I notice you have shown x% growth in your earnings over the past (time period), why will your earnings slow so much over the next year?". At this point you have to try and judge the honesty and logic and intelligence of the answer. If the company is comfortable with low estimates and gives you a valid reason for earnings to slow so much, I would tend to believe them, at least till I saw an earnings report showing continued strong growth. BTW, don't bother trying these questions on the Investor Relations type person, whether an employee of the firm or an outside contractor. They know how to field them. You want to talk to a corporate decision maker, I usually restricted my calls to the CEO, CFO, occasionally the COO (chief operations officer), and rarely the Chairman (surprisingly, they often know little about the day to day running of the company). good luck tom w ---------- > From: pwahl@postoffice.worldnet.att.net > To: canslim@mail.xmission.com > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] ADE Corp > Date: Saturday, April 19, 1997 3:46 AM > > > From: "Tom Worley" > > Thanks for the advice. I have called companies occasionally and > tried to pry information out of them about analysts estimates. They > are fairly close mouthed about offering much new information, and > they definitely try to be as positive as they reasonably can be. > > > Patrick Wahl ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Introduction?! Date: 19 Apr 1997 08:59:24 -0400 The reason O'Neill says stay away from stocks under the $10-12 range is due the lack of institutional following, and his services, IMHO, are first and foremost designed for institutional use. Even the so called small cap funds, if you look at their portfolio, contain few if any stocks below $10. Rather, they will have $15 or $20 stocks with real small floats. Likewise, low priced stocks have fewer analysts following them, and fewer major wirehouses making a mkt or recommending them. All of the above contributes to higher risk. I have made a nice amount of profits on low priced, even penny, stocks. But the work is greater, I must do a lot more homework, be patient, hold longer usually (altho I did triple in a single day on one, boy was that fun!). And remember, I consider myself a professional with a lot of experience and daily access to real time data (I'm a professional, you shouldn't try this at home). I have also lost a lot of money on penny stocks. Compared to this, I might buy a $20 stock, or its option, based solely on the DG and how it is trading. tom w ---------- > From: pwahl@postoffice.worldnet.att.net > To: canslim@mail.xmission.com > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Introduction?! > Date: Saturday, April 12, 1997 12:34 AM > > > From: Dan Sutton > > > increasing number of small stocks hitting the recent screens (ie. LB > > today..bought a few hundred at 7 1/8 closed at 8). I would consider > > Personally I hate that low priced junk (I know I might be tipping off > my bias with a few of those words), and I used to see William O'Neil > on tv in Los Angeles, and he always always told callers to stay away > from stocks under 10-12 per share. I know people do have success ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: [CANSLIM] Precious Metals Alert Date: 19 Apr 1997 09:15:21 -0400 While I realize no true CANSLIMer is interested in gold, you may know somebody that is addicted. Certainly I see enough "gold is going to the moon" posts on the net, and with inflation fears heating up, this likely to increase. So, some info. Since last Dec, Russia has not been exporting platinum or palladium, and they are I believe the world's largest producer. Over the past two days have picked up several stories indicating they (the Russians) are negotiating with their creditors to swap platinum and palladium for present stocks of gold being held by their creditors as collateral against the loans, with the apparent intention of selling that gold once released. With gold already below support levels and bearish, while the other two holding strong, likely the creditors will agree, further busting the price of gold lower. I'm not a metals player, just too manipulated for my tastes, but if anyone is thinking gold, I wouldn't do it. Just some idle thoughts for those who can use them. tom w Any opinions are strictly my own and not that of my employer. My comments are based on a variety of sources and are intended strictly to assist and inform. In no way am I suggesting a buy, sell, or hold decision based on my comments or observations. I always urge an investor to do his or her own homework, and be sure the risk of the market can be tolerated and any losses accepted gracefully. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: [CANSLIM] old messages Date: 19 Apr 1997 09:17:16 -0400 Am I the only one receiving retransmissions of old postings? I know some of mine from last night got dup'd, which I thought was an ISP problem. However, also received several from others that were days to over a week old, and saw one other mention thus suggesting there is a majordomo problem after all. Jeff, any info from your end? tom w ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: [CANSLIM] First Call Estimates for stocks reporting during week of April 21 Date: 19 Apr 1997 09:26:52 -0400 As I did last weekend, will provide First Call (or Bear Stearns if available) earnings estimates if anyone wishes. Just send me private email at stkguru@netside.net. Use EARNINGS in the Subject line and put the name and/or symbol in the body. If you know the day they are supposed to report, please include that as the list is by day of the week. tom w ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Michael R. Jeffers" Subject: [CANSLIM] James' Top 5 Picks (plus 1) Date: 19 Apr 1997 07:21:21 Here goes, I see that James identified a few stocks he thought to be OK. Looking for someplace to spend the money I just earned from a close out trade (sold IBC for a total dollar gain of $42.75 [I'm Rich!!!]), I wanted to look for another stock to buy. After an hour of internet research, here is what I see: SEWY and ASTSF - Neither stock has estimated earnings at the "Stock Smart" site. This is the first place I go for anything. FULL - James' sixth candidate shows a drop of 8% in estimated earnings, once again according to Stock Smart. SFDS - In it's 3rd FY Qtr., earnings must grow over 30% to make est. earning according to Stock Smart. Last year the 3rd FY Qtr. earnings were at a higher level in relation to it's actual annual earnings. This leaves MWL and DS. I like the Stock Smart screen, but think I should only monitor these right now for the following reasons: MWL - I see (on the crappy Yahoo charts) a breakout at around $22. At its current price of $27, it is 20% above the breakout point. Should I place a buy order at $23? Also, I figure it's industry to be either Office Equip or Paper Manf., which have an IBD industry rating of 54 and 92 respectively. My guide in the past has been to stick with the top 30 industries, and definitely no lower than the top 50. DS - I see (once again on the Yahoo charts) a breakout around $32 at the end of March. It's current price is $34.5, or 8% above the b/o. The semiconductors IBD industry rating is in the high 20's, but for the past five years this stock has been mostly between $15 and $25. The growth for the past few weeks looks explosive, but can it last? So in an effort to save a buck (the cost to download the TC2000 chart) or two, I submit the above for critique on my analysis methods and findings. Just one more thing, which isn't CANSLIM, but kind of fits in. Many of the sites I use daily I learned about here. With Endora you can put the html link right in the E-mail. How do you do that? Thanks!! Just Little 'Ole Me, Michael R. Jeffers ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: drjsmith@juno.com Subject: [CANSLIM] reading graphs? Date: 19 Apr 1997 10:47:32 -0400 I am trying to get better reading charts. I was checking a chart on LOJN, Lojack Corp, they make the lojack system used by police to find stolen cars. The police in Philadelphia, recently got the system, and there have been a couple of positive news stories in the city section of the paper. There share price has been flat since July 96. Is this a flat base or just a stock that isn't moving. LOJN eps rank 75 rs 41 they beat the est earnings for last qtr .07 to .09 earnings 1994 .02 1995 .16 1996 .26 1997 .36 1998 .50 est Funds own 10% Brokers recomendations: 2 strong buys, 1 moderate buy & 1 hold I think this could be an interesting stock to watch for the future, but has a way to go before it should be a buy. I think it needs to break $11 1/2 for it to be a buy, and that could be a long time from now ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Quick Pick Analysis Date: 19 Apr 1997 12:06:13 -0400 Took a peek at DG online, here is what I found. Base is at 23, buying at 26.50 you are already very extended over the base RS 91, EPS 93, a/d B, timeliness A, grp RS 97 Funds already own 55% so they control this stock up or down and little likelihood of much of an increase avg vol is only 17,900, thinly traded and erratic as well #5 in its group small float of course, only 2.1 mil shares biggest single CANSLIM neg is the up/down is 0.7 (anything below 0.8 is neg). Before I looked at a yahoo chart, assuming you didn't have DG available, at least review the other CANSLIM criteria available to you with IBD in front of you. The lack of liquidity can distort the chart and other nrs as well. Be careful. I always consider both the industry "M" as well as the overall "M". tom w ---------- > From: Michael R. Jeffers > To: canslim@xmission.com > Subject: [CANSLIM] Quick Pick Analysis > Date: Friday, April 18, 1997 3:04 PM > > This morning's paper NASDAQ Stocks with Greatest Rise in Volume showed, > among others, Knight Transportation (KNGT) boldfaced. A look to the > "Groups with the Greatest % of stocks making new highs" showed me that both > Airplane and Truck transportation stocks have a ranking. Their Industry > groups are in the top 10, and have improved over 3 months and 1 week ago. > All of the graphs on that page look pretty weak, except for th DJ Transports. > Get on the 'Net, and look at a Yahoo chart of KNGT. Seems that it has > some sort of Base that it is breaking out of. At this point I bought at > market. > I have since learned the following: > EPS = 93 > Rel Stg = 92 > Annual growth for the past 4 years has been 76% to 63% to 31% to 22% > increases > 9.151 Million Shares > Group Str = A > Accm/Dist = B > Trailing P/E = 33 > P/E based on projected Earnings = 26 > Chart pattern I see is a base from Feb to early Apr. The price range > Now the question: Must we use the WHOLE market when judging "M"? We buy > stocks based on what industry they are in, shouldn't we use that industry > as our market guide? The way I read it, if we limit ourselves to the whole ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] The New Top Five Date: 19 Apr 1997 12:16:25 -0400 Alright, I swear I will not, repeat, will not spend this glorious sunny weekend sitting in front of my computer, even if I have already been here for the past five hours. Granted, it's cold here in Miami, actually had to close the windows last night when it dropped down to 50 or so, hope Johan and family took their warm coats! fast comments on the top 5 plus FULL: SEWY - thinly traded, avg vol 3900, no forecast ASTSF - no forecast, has the lower left, upper right (LLUR) pattern James likes, EPS 72, and vol dropping MWL - too extended for me, did already report Q1 so that's out of the way, u/d a powerful 4.9, avg vol 92K SFDS - looks good, base is extended from the 50dma but there is a base, non-std fiscal year, next earnings 6/12, one holder this month cut his position to 4.9% but this may be just to avoid all the reporting requirements of holding over 5% DS - still kicking myself for missing this one prior earnings, note that 98 estimate was lowered, vol is down and base is short FULL - 10% extended already, cyclical earnings, sales flat in Q1 And yeah, despite Ms G (she's probably just trying to imitate me anyway), I still like DELL best of a number of computer mfr's, looked at the charts of several of my favorites and it is still #1 in its group and deservedly so. tom w ---------- > From: Brenda > To: canslim > Subject: [CANSLIM] The New Top Five > Date: Saturday, April 19, 1997 1:25 AM > > are the top five which did manage to squeak out with a grade of 95+: SEWY, > ASTSF, MWL, SFDS and DS. FULL was sixth but I only track the top five Tom? Going to > reconsider DELL? And, how about that proposed rate increase? You did mean > DECREASE right? Amazing and she makes a salary in the SEVEN figure > category. More power to her. Think Barnum and Bailey (if any of you are old > enough to know who I am talking about) had a great saying about people that ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] reading graphs? Date: 19 Apr 1997 12:33:52 -0400 LOJN has been something of a story stock for years. They are undoubtedly growing, but their technology last time I did a review was somewhat lacking. The biggest problem was that the car owner had to first discover his car stolen, before the Lojack system could aid him. There are other systems that not only will automatically react to being stolen, but will use an installed cellular phone to call a central dispatch and also put out a locator signal to show its present location. Obviously if a police dept can be computer told to go to a certain location and apprehend a stolen vehicle, its better than being told that a car is stolen and turn on their Lojack receivers to see if they can pick up the signal. In any major city, a stolen car can be in pieces within hours, timely notification of the theft can be critical. Lojack also spends a lot on marketing, if you look at their sales figures recently, they have been pretty flat. EPS is 75, a/d is B, funds have 10%. Earnings projected for 1998 (their year is another non-std, ended Feb with .36) is .56, but personally I don't put a lot of confidence in that nr. Averaging 83,500 shares a day, it's easy to get an occasional spike. Four days ago that happened and moved the stock over its 50dma. However, two of the following three days the vol was well under daily average and the third day (Friday) only matched the daily avg. And on Friday the price dropped back under the 50dma. I don't see a positive trend here. tom w ---------- > From: drjsmith@juno.com > To: canslim@xmission.com > Subject: [CANSLIM] reading graphs? > Date: Saturday, April 19, 1997 10:47 AM > > I am trying to get better reading charts. I was checking a chart on > LOJN, Lojack Corp, they make the lojack system used by police to find > stolen cars. The police in Philadelphia, recently got the system, and > there have been a couple of positive news stories in the city section of > the paper. > There share price has been flat since July 96. Is this a flat base > or just a stock that isn't moving. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Brenda" Subject: [CANSLIM] Analysts Follwing "Cheap Priced Stocks" Date: 19 Apr 1997 12:17:50 -0500 Maybe there were not many analysts following them in the past, BUT now? How about the $200 stocks that are now $5, how about the $100 stocks that are $5, how about the $50 stocks that are now $5, how about the $25 stocks that are now $5. If they drop every stock that falls to below $10-12 they may not have much to do anymore in this market. Guess they could go fishing or to the zoo? Oh well, just a thought Tom. How many $75 stocks can you name that are now under $12 without even going to your notes to look? James ---------- > From: Tom Worley > To: canslim@mail.xmission.com > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Introduction?! > Date: Saturday, April 19, 1997 7:59 AM > > The reason O'Neill says stay away from stocks under the $10-12 > range is due the lack of institutional following, and his services, > IMHO, are first and foremost designed for institutional use. Even > the so called small cap funds, if you look at their portfolio, > contain few if any stocks below $10. Rather, they will have $15 or > $20 stocks with real small floats. > Likewise, low priced stocks have fewer analysts following them, and > fewer major wirehouses making a mkt or recommending them. > All of the above contributes to higher risk. > I have made a nice amount of profits on low priced, even penny, > stocks. But the work is greater, I must do a lot more homework, be > patient, hold longer usually (altho I did triple in a single day on > one, boy was that fun!). And remember, I consider myself a > professional with a lot of experience and daily access to real time > data (I'm a professional, you shouldn't try this at home). I have > also lost a lot of money on penny stocks. > Compared to this, I might buy a $20 stock, or its option, based > solely on the DG and how it is trading. > > tom w > ---------- > > From: pwahl@postoffice.worldnet.att.net > > To: canslim@mail.xmission.com > > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Introduction?! > > Date: Saturday, April 12, 1997 12:34 AM > > > > > From: Dan Sutton > > > > > increasing number of small stocks hitting the recent screens > (ie. LB > > > today..bought a few hundred at 7 1/8 closed at 8). I would > consider > > > > Personally I hate that low priced junk (I know I might be tipping > off > > my bias with a few of those words), and I used to see William > O'Neil > > on tv in Los Angeles, and he always always told callers to stay > away > > from stocks under 10-12 per share. I know people do have success > > ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Brenda" Subject: [CANSLIM] Sold IBC Date: 19 Apr 1997 12:13:59 -0500 Just a note for you: This past week looked up every single #1 pick by S&P 500 for the next 12months and also Zweigs #1 picks. The ONLY stock that showed up on both lists was ....... you guessed it. Interstate Bakeries. It graded out Friday in the following manner: EPS 84, REL 95, Acc B, Grp B, Spn A, Long Time Graph 90, Short Time Graph 86. And, I am rough on my graph grades. It had average grade of 91.6 - For those who don't have anything else to do this week-end here are some of teh grades for some of the stocks "still on the infamous wall chart" -(Keep in mind my standards to be here have certainly relaxed) - ALTR 91.7, AIV 91.3, BKCO 90.2, BCF 92.6 (this one showing up in a lot of places)-got long term graph grade of 93 and short term grade of 98 - I never give over 99 and almost never give a 99 graph grade), CBSB 93.8, CTS 94.5 (talk about EXTENDED), DYA 94.5, FRA 91.1, GDYS 94.3 (I still like this one for some reason), INVX 90.0, MTRX 92.3 - ($9.13), MAVK 92.8, OFCP 94.6, PSUN 90.8, PRFN 94.3 - EPS 99 (this one would scare me to death-may be the best since I would want to own it the least), QNTM only graded out 81.7 all due to my rough tough graph grades and D accumulation but think if I were long term investor I would own it, QCSB 91.0 (a sleeping dog that will eventually get there ever so slowly - you forget about it and next time you look at it in 90 days you say, "Why didn't I get that one when I could?"), RHBC been mentioned by several of the BIG boys as long term good one - Group E, good graph grades though avg 86.9, RXR 92.4, VTRA 90.5, WBPR 93,8 (I think this one is going to do well long term-may be one of my most favorites), WWW 92.8 - Canslim numbers looked real good- my graph grades of 78 and 78 killed it, YELL 94.0 - That's it folks. Have a good week-end. I've already looked at all of these. Slim, slim, slim pickens folks!!!!! James ---------- > From: Michael R. Jeffers > To: canslim@xmission.com > Subject: [CANSLIM] James' Top 5 Picks (plus 1) > Date: Saturday, April 19, 1997 2:21 AM > > Here goes, > I see that James identified a few stocks he thought to be OK. Looking for > someplace to spend the money I just earned from a close out trade (sold IBC > for a total dollar gain of $42.75 [I'm Rich!!!]), I wanted to look for > another stock to buy. After an hour of internet research, here is what I see: > > SEWY and ASTSF - Neither stock has estimated earnings at the "Stock > Smart" site. This is the first place I go for anything. > FULL - James' sixth candidate shows a drop of 8% in estimated earnings, > once again according to Stock Smart. > SFDS - In it's 3rd FY Qtr., earnings must grow over 30% to make est. > earning according to Stock Smart. Last year the 3rd FY Qtr. earnings were > at a higher level in relation to it's actual annual earnings. > > This leaves MWL and DS. I like the Stock Smart screen, but think I should > only monitor these right now for the following reasons: > > MWL - I see (on the crappy Yahoo charts) a breakout at around $22. At > its current price of $27, it is 20% above the breakout point. Should I > place a buy order at $23? Also, I figure it's industry to be either Office > Equip or Paper Manf., which have an IBD industry rating of 54 and 92 > respectively. My guide in the past has been to stick with the top 30 > industries, and definitely no lower than the top 50. > DS - I see (once again on the Yahoo charts) a breakout around $32 at the > end of March. It's current price is $34.5, or 8% above the b/o. The > semiconductors IBD industry rating is in the high 20's, but for the past > five years this stock has been mostly between $15 and $25. The growth for > the past few weeks looks explosive, but can it last? > > So in an effort to save a buck (the cost to download the TC2000 chart) or > two, I submit the above for critique on my analysis methods and findings. > > Just one more thing, which isn't CANSLIM, but kind of fits in. Many of > the sites I use daily I learned about here. With Endora you can put the > html link right in the E-mail. How do you do that? Thanks!! > > > Just Little 'Ole Me, > > Michael R. Jeffers ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Michael A Langston Subject: re: [CANSLIM] The New Top Five Date: 19 Apr 1997 13:47:15 -0400 > Alright, I swear I will not, repeat, will not spend this glorious > sunny weekend sitting in front of my computer yea yea, sure, uh huh, we've heard that one before tom > despite Ms G (she's probably just trying to imitate me... Mr O and Mr T appear to be imitating me, both suddenly urging t-bills and caution -- you can keep the frizzy hair, right or wrong i think i like my company a lot better, heh heh heh mike p.s. as for Ms G, i couldn't help but notice that in the recent URL posted here she claims to be a workaholic not an alcoholic, and that she was canned because she was looking out for her shareholders best interests -- i guess my recollection both of news stories about her driving record and of stats on her fund's performance must be in error ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Hemant Rotithor Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] old messages Date: 19 Apr 1997 14:33:32 -0700 Tom Worley wrote: > > Am I the only one receiving retransmissions of old postings? I know > some of mine from last night got dup'd, which I thought was an ISP > problem. However, also received several from others that were days > to over a week old, and saw one other mention thus suggesting there > is a majordomo problem after all. Jeff, any info from your end? > > tom w Yep I also saw duplicates of yesterday's messages and copies of old messages. -- Disclaimer: Opinions expressed in this document are those of the author. Digital Equipment Corp., 110 Spit Brook Rd, ZKO2-3/N30, Nashua, NH 03062 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: pwahl@postoffice.worldnet.att.net Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Analysts Follwing "Cheap Priced Stocks" Date: 19 Apr 1997 13:04:02 -0800 > From: "Brenda" > Maybe there were not many analysts following them in the past, BUT now? How > about the $200 stocks that are now $5, how about the $100 stocks that are > $5, how about the $50 stocks that are now $5, how about the $25 stocks that > are now $5. If they drop every stock that falls to below $10-12 they may > not have much to do anymore in this market. Guess they could go fishing or I don't think there are as many that have fallen that far as you think there are. They make an impression when it happens, but how many actually fall from 50 to 8? May I suggest that people only quote enough of a message so that people know what the original post was about. This post I replied to had not only the post that was being replied to, but the original post that that older post was replying to - a lot of excess verbiage, in other words. And it helps if you quote before your reply, not tack it on at the end of the message, which is always off the screen. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: pwahl@postoffice.worldnet.att.net Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Introduction?! Date: 19 Apr 1997 13:04:02 -0800 > From: "Tom Worley" > The reason O'Neill says stay away from stocks under the $10-12 > range is due the lack of institutional following, and his services, > IMHO, are first and foremost designed for institutional use. Even > the so called small cap funds, if you look at their portfolio, When someone called asking about a low priced stock, his concern seemed to be that they were not quality companies. I never heard him mention lack of institutional following as a reason to stay away from low priced stocks. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Louis H. Gipson, RN" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] reading graphs/LOJN Date: 19 Apr 1997 13:39:24 -0700 Hi Guys & Gals, Watch out for LoJack. My sister happens to be the top salesperson in the country for them and she is constantly frustrated by the lack of progress the management is making in providing adequate customer service. Upper management is hidebound and refuses to increase the servicing department. My sister states she could quadruaple her sales if adequate staff was available to do the installation of the tracking units. I, ve been watching this stock for a few years now and have seen nothing internally to impress me. This does not mean the stock cannot take off on a run from the base if there is sufficient demand but if it does and I follow it up, it will be with a 5% or less trailing stop loss. Louis Gipson, RN drjsmith@juno.com wrote: > > I am trying to get better reading charts. I was checking a chart on > LOJN, Lojack Corp, they make the lojack system used by police to find > stolen cars. The police in Philadelphia, recently got the system, and > there have been a couple of positive news stories in the city section of > the paper. > There share price has been flat since July 96. Is this a flat base > or just a stock that isn't moving. > > LOJN > eps rank 75 rs 41 > > they beat the est earnings for last qtr .07 to .09 > earnings > 1994 .02 > 1995 .16 > 1996 .26 > 1997 .36 > 1998 .50 est > > Funds own 10% > > Brokers recomendations: 2 strong buys, 1 moderate buy & 1 hold > > I think this could be an interesting stock to watch for the future, but > has a way to go before it should be a buy. I think it needs to break $11 > 1/2 for it to be a buy, and that could be a long time from now ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: PPNewell@aol.com Subject: [CANSLIM] Frontier Insurance - FTR b/o Date: 19 Apr 1997 16:52:38 -0400 (EDT) Check this out, broke out 2wks ago with 465% up volume to 47 for a new high has an EPS of 78 and is now at 53 and I missed it due to the market falling. Peter Newell ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Brenda" Subject: [CANSLIM] Double posting? Date: 19 Apr 1997 17:11:07 -0500 For those of you experiencing double posting before you send do you check out the To: line? When I am responding it is putting canslim up there twice. I always have to delete it one of those times or it does send it twice. Just a thought. James ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Brenda" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Introduction?! Date: 19 Apr 1997 17:03:51 -0500 Here is a good laugh for you. I just bought MFN ($2.38). Want some of that one. Chart is in continually downturn and just two days ago I decided to get on board. Still not unpleased with my decision. Only time will tell. DEFINELTLY not a CANSLIM or any other type stock unless they have developed some kind of new system that has to do with bottom fishing for the BIG one. Oh well, thought you might enjoy knowing that. James ---------- > From: pwahl@postoffice.worldnet.att.net > To: canslim@mail.xmission.com > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Introduction?! > Date: Saturday, April 19, 1997 4:04 PM > > > From: "Tom Worley" > > > The reason O'Neill says stay away from stocks under the $10-12 > > range is due the lack of institutional following, and his services, > > IMHO, are first and foremost designed for institutional use. Even > > the so called small cap funds, if you look at their portfolio, > > When someone called asking about a low priced stock, his concern > seemed to be that they were not quality companies. I never heard > him mention lack of institutional following as a reason to stay away > from low priced stocks. > > > ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Brenda" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Analysts Follwing "Cheap Priced Stocks" Date: 19 Apr 1997 17:09:55 -0500 Unless you are following a different market than I am, and watching a different channel than I do...... It is not unusual nor even exciting anymore to see a stock fall more today than it is left worth. And additionally, how many times just this past week have I heard the commentators say, "And was a $50, $70 less than a year ago." As I go thru my charts on TC2000 each night the MAJORITY of stocks I see have had 40-60% corrections. They are a dime a dozen and many, many, many actually good companies. JMED is a good point in case. This stock should be 25-29 but no stretch of the imagination. Not $10 yet I admit but who knows. Just wait. Look at the winners from 8 months ago. Get a paper and look at those with the greatest gains as of 8 months ago and you will now have, almost in its entireity a list of the stocks that have fallen the most in the last 8 months. Just something I see daily as I go thru my charts and watch the entertainment network. ---------- > From: pwahl@postoffice.worldnet.att.net > To: canslim@mail.xmission.com > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Analysts Follwing "Cheap Priced Stocks" > Date: Saturday, April 19, 1997 4:04 PM > > > From: "Brenda" > > > Maybe there were not many analysts following them in the past, BUT now? How > > about the $200 stocks that are now $5, how about the $100 stocks that are > > $5, how about the $50 stocks that are now $5, how about the $25 stocks that > > are now $5. If they drop every stock that falls to below $10-12 they may > > not have much to do anymore in this market. Guess they could go fishing or > > I don't think there are as many that have fallen that far as you > think there are. They make an impression when it happens, but how > many actually fall from 50 to 8? ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Brenda" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Frontier Insurance - FTR b/o Date: 19 Apr 1997 18:29:38 -0500 Oh NO! My kind of stock and I missed one. Too few in this market to go missing em. See, if I already owned some of this I "might" be buying more but even James does not chase some of them. This is one I will not chase. Guess that means it will probably be 75 by the end of the week. Thanks for the post. I'll put into the bank and watch when one day the announcers says, "FTR cut in half. Missed number by a penny and wall street plummets it!" Wouldn't surprise me. Or to hear Maria tell us all how none of the shorts have covered yet and it is on its way to 200. The day after she said that about Diana it headed straight south and has never recovered. Ya'll enjoy your week-end. Still checking to see if I am going to remain in company with the long hair or pick up camp and move in with the short hair people. ---------- > From: PPNewell@aol.com > To: canslim@mail.xmission.com > Subject: [CANSLIM] Frontier Insurance - FTR b/o > Date: Saturday, April 19, 1997 3:52 PM > > Check this out, broke out 2wks ago with 465% up volume to 47 for a new high > has an EPS of 78 and is now at 53 and I missed it due to the market falling. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: musicant@autobahn.org (Dan Musicant) Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] WON at Berkeley Marriot Date: 19 Apr 1997 23:49:21 GMT On Wed, 16 Apr 1997 13:23:46 -0400 (EDT), you wrote: :Dan, : :At 04:08 AM 4/16/97 GMT, you wrote: :>P.S. Going to see WON at Berkeley, Marriot Saturday. : :If you get a chance, please give us a summary or your impressions or = notes. :He says lot's of the standard intro to CANSLIM things each time = (naturally), :but there are always a few new tidbits that I pick up. So, anything that :strikes you as interesting would probably be the same to others on the = list. :Thanks in advance. : :Regards, :Craig Scheduled at 10:00 am, WON strode up to the podium at 10:01 and began speaking to a packed house. This is the 2nd one of these I saw, the first being in 10/96 or so when I knew nothing more of CANSLIM than I got from a 5 minute briefing on the way over. This time I was familiar with most of what he spoke of. Points of interest to the *average* person subscribed to this newsletter/bulletin board: 1. We are, of course, in a bearish mode at present. He was reminded (during the trailing question and answer period) of the recent prediction of a Mr. Templeton (or something like that) about 400 more points to drop in the DOW or to 4000 or whatever, and he reiterated his inclination to pay little attention to such things and instead to rely on the indications he does have confidence in. Those indicators have recently been discussed here here... i.e. a true bottom, which is confirmed by (hopefully) a strong follow-through usually 4 to 7 days (sometimes as many as "13" days) after the first rally, which exhibits strong volume and a 1+ percent upturn in the major indexes. I may not have gotten all the details right here, and certainly not all the relavent caveats, but the straight dope is, of course, in HTMMIS. 2. He also went to some lengths to illustrate how we can determine for our own selves that a market top has occurred -- several trading days of increased volume and a drop in indexes. He showed the details of the most recent, which started around the last week in January, and was confirmed by numerous indicators for the next two months. Again, the facts are in the book as far as what to look for, although WON did not plug his book so much as IBD.=20 3. WON's feeling is that the present deflation of the tech sector is a healthy and understandable correction. i.e. that the sector was overbought, although he did not use that word, I think that would sum up what he said. He pointed out several times the strength in the retail sector, which has not been this strong for two years. 4. He feels strongly that there is nothing wrong with the U.S. economy and thinks that it is the bellweather of the world's economies. He believes that the U.S. would have achieved significantly greater growth in the last few years since the demise of Communism had it not been for the tight controls imposed by Alan Greenspan and the Fed. 1% greater, if I heard correctly. He reiterated that there is nothing wrong with the U.S. economy and regards with skepticism claims that the indexes will shed 40% more. However, he seemed to not regard 10 to 20% as unthinkable. Predictions are not his style, *preaching* instead that the market will do what it does, does not care what we opine or think, and it is up to us to recognize its signals, what it is telling us.=20 5. WON emphasized that it is very useful to be able to recognize the market bottom signaling the end of a bear market cycle, since many stocks will rocket up quickly, and there are great profits to be made at this time when so many are in doubt, have lost their courage to act, and are frozen with the fear created by the gloomy predictions and depictions of awful conditions by the media. He indicated that many high growth stocks at that moment will leap upward, perhaps 30 to 40% *overnight* almost and typical investors will consider them too overextended to take a chance on, but they will continue their progress upward and richly reward those who buy in. Asked if it would be high growth stocks that lead the charge, and he said that 2/3 of the time this will be the case, but it is never clear beforehand which sectors will lead the way out of the bear market, and you must look at the facts and act accordingly. Whatever else WON is, he is certainly a salesman for his newspaper, and he gave us a tour through today's IBD, a copy of which was given to each at the outset. 6. WON reiterated several times his strong position that investors should never "average down" and always endeavor to "average up" in their stock purchasing. By this he means that you do not buy more of a stock you have purchased because it has dropped in price and you imagine that you can pick up more shares at a good price. He spoke several times of buying more shares as a stock continues to rise, or "average up." This may help settle a point that was discussed recently here concerning a suggestion that WON advocates selling at least some of a stock after it has risen such and such percent.=20 7. Particularly in today's market, says WON, it is ridiculous to think you have to sell a stock if it retreats 8% from *any* point. With that rule, you would *very* frequently get shaken out at times you don't want to. But this is *only* after it has risen significantly from your buy point. The buy point must be chosen so as to minimize the chances of an 8% drop from there. He appears to still insist on holding to that first stop, however, although it seems to me (my imagination?) that he was not as adamant as he was in October. 8. WON maintains that if you don't have the time and energy to do your own homework, you are better off buying into the mutual funds, preferably American growth or high growth. He maintains that even if you pick a so-so performer, if you sit on it for many years and continue to add to it every year, you will eventually be a millionaire. He says you are absolutely better off in American mutuals rather than international, as the returns are definitely better and the risks much less. He advocates just holding on through thick and thin with mutuals. He said this repeatedly. At the end he excused himself indicating that he had to catch a plane. Dan ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: musicant@autobahn.org (Dan Musicant) Subject: [CANSLIM] Wm J. O'Neil at Berkeley Marriot Date: 19 Apr 1997 23:51:54 GMT On Wed, 16 Apr 1997 13:23:46 -0400 (EDT), you wrote: :Dan, : :At 04:08 AM 4/16/97 GMT, you wrote: :>P.S. Going to see WON at Berkeley, Marriot Saturday. : :If you get a chance, please give us a summary or your impressions or = notes. :He says lot's of the standard intro to CANSLIM things each time = (naturally), :but there are always a few new tidbits that I pick up. So, anything that :strikes you as interesting would probably be the same to others on the = list. :Thanks in advance. : :Regards, :Craig Scheduled at 10:00 am, WON strode up to the podium at 10:01 and began speaking to a packed house. This is the 2nd one of these I saw, the first being in 10/96 or so when I knew nothing more of CANSLIM than I got from a 5 minute briefing on the way over. This time I was familiar with most of what he spoke of. Points of interest to the *average* person subscribed to this newsletter/bulletin board: 1. We are, of course, in a bearish mode at present. He was reminded (during the trailing question and answer period) of the recent prediction of a Mr. Templeton (or something like that) about 400 more points to drop in the DOW or to 4000 or whatever, and he reiterated his inclination to pay little attention to such things and instead to rely on the indications he does have confidence in. Those indicators have recently been discussed here here... i.e. a true bottom, which is confirmed by (hopefully) a strong follow-through usually 4 to 7 days (sometimes as many as "13" days) after the first rally, which exhibits strong volume and a 1+ percent upturn in the major indexes. I may not have gotten all the details right here, and certainly not all the relavent caveats, but the straight dope is, of course, in HTMMIS. 2. He also went to some lengths to illustrate how we can determine for our own selves that a market top has occurred -- several trading days of increased volume and a drop in indexes. He showed the details of the most recent, which started around the last week in January, and was confirmed by numerous indicators for the next two months. Again, the facts are in the book as far as what to look for, although WON did not plug his book so much as IBD.=20 3. WON's feeling is that the present deflation of the tech sector is a healthy and understandable correction. i.e. that the sector was overbought, although he did not use that word, I think that would sum up what he said. He pointed out several times the strength in the retail sector, which has not been this strong for two years. 4. He feels strongly that there is nothing wrong with the U.S. economy and thinks that it is the bellweather of the world's economies. He believes that the U.S. would have achieved significantly greater growth in the last few years since the demise of Communism had it not been for the tight controls imposed by Alan Greenspan and the Fed. 1% greater, if I heard correctly. He reiterated that there is nothing wrong with the U.S. economy and regards with skepticism claims that the indexes will shed 40% more. However, he seemed to not regard 10 to 20% as unthinkable. Predictions are not his style, *preaching* instead that the market will do what it does, does not care what we opine or think, and it is up to us to recognize its signals, what it is telling us.=20 5. WON emphasized that it is very useful to be able to recognize the market bottom signaling the end of a bear market cycle, since many stocks will rocket up quickly, and there are great profits to be made at this time when so many are in doubt, have lost their courage to act, and are frozen with the fear created by the gloomy predictions and depictions of awful conditions by the media. He indicated that many high growth stocks at that moment will leap upward, perhaps 30 to 40% *overnight* almost and typical investors will consider them too overextended to take a chance on, but they will continue their progress upward and richly reward those who buy in. Asked if it would be high growth stocks that lead the charge, and he said that 2/3 of the time this will be the case, but it is never clear beforehand which sectors will lead the way out of the bear market, and you must look at the facts and act accordingly. Whatever else WON is, he is certainly a salesman for his newspaper, and he gave us a tour through today's IBD, a copy of which was given to each at the outset. 6. WON reiterated several times his strong position that investors should never "average down" and always endeavor to "average up" in their stock purchasing. By this he means that you do not buy more of a stock you have purchased because it has dropped in price and you imagine that you can pick up more shares at a good price. He spoke several times of buying more shares as a stock continues to rise, or "average up." This may help settle a point that was discussed recently here concerning a suggestion that WON advocates selling at least some of a stock after it has risen such and such percent.=20 7. Particularly in today's market, says WON, it is ridiculous to think you have to sell a stock if it retreats 8% from *any* point. With that rule, you would *very* frequently get shaken out at times you don't want to. But this is *only* after it has risen significantly from your buy point. The buy point must be chosen so as to minimize the chances of an 8% drop from there. He appears to still insist on holding to that first stop, however, although it seems to me (my imagination?) that he was not as adamant as he was in October. 8. WON maintains that if you don't have the time and energy to do your own homework, you are better off buying into the mutual funds, preferably American growth or high growth. He maintains that even if you pick a so-so performer, if you sit on it for many years and continue to add to it every year, you will eventually be a millionaire. He says you are absolutely better off in American mutuals rather than international, as the returns are definitely better and the risks much less. He advocates just holding on through thick and thin with mutuals. He said this repeatedly. At the end he excused himself indicating that he had to catch a plane. Dan ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Craig A. Griffin" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Wm J. O'Neil at Berkeley Marriot Date: 19 Apr 1997 20:23:33 -0400 Dan, At 11:51 PM 4/19/97 GMT, you wrote: >Scheduled at 10:00 am, WON strode up to the podium at 10:01 and began >speaking to a packed house. This is the 2nd one of these I saw, the >first being in 10/96 or so when I knew nothing more of CANSLIM than I >got from a 5 minute briefing on the way over. This time I was familiar >with most of what he spoke of. >... My sincere thanks for taking the time to post this! Craig Copyright (c) 1997 Craig A. Griffin. All Rights Reserved. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Michael A Langston Subject: [CANSLIM] low priced stox (was re: Introduction?!) Date: 19 Apr 1997 21:03:43 -0400 > The reason O'Neill says stay away from stocks under the $10-12 > range is due the lack of institutional following agreed -- i believe o'neil has also been quoted as noting that spreads are often an immense problem for low-priced stox -- in many cases, the spread alone puts you at an 8% loss the instant you buy! other disadvantages, both real and perceived: 1) lack of marginability 2) risk of manipulation 3) risk of reverse splits 4) more due diligence required 5) others reasons, maybe, i avoid em...usually... mike ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Michael A Langston Subject: re: [CANSLIM] WON at Berkeley Marriot Date: 19 Apr 1997 21:15:08 -0400 many thanks dan -- have heard most of it before, nevertheless is is very nice to review it again -- good job! -- one piece i didn't recall was this: > 5. WON emphasized that it is very useful to be able to recognize the > market bottom signaling the end of a bear market cycle, since many > stocks will rocket up quickly, and there are great profits to be made this is a tough read i think -- calling market bottoms is awfully tricky -- to me at least -- i wish he'd just flash us all a message when he senses a bottom :) and a piece i find worth emphasizing: > 8. WON maintains that if you don't have the time and energy to do your > own homework, you are better off buying into the mutual funds, i think funds often make sense even if you do have a reasonable amount of time to monitor individual stox -- that's because volatile, whipsaw markets can be good for funds even when canslim may be unsuitable -- i see this as another reason to separate your long-term accounts from your trading accounts anyway, thanks again dan for posting this mike ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Michael A Langston Subject: re: [CANSLIM] Introduction?! Date: 19 Apr 1997 21:20:12 -0400 > Here is a good laugh for you. I just bought MFN ($2.38). no laugh here, that kinda move takes guts -- FWIW, the last shareholder report i rec'd from FLPSX says that MFN was their biggest recent mistake, they took their lumps and have moved on -- i hope it works out for you, may your courage be rewarded mike ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] low priced stox (was re: Introduction?!) Date: 19 Apr 1997 22:55:09 -0400 you left off lack of options and, often, convertible bonds. tom w ---------- > From: Michael A Langston > To: canslim@mail.xmission.com > Subject: [CANSLIM] low priced stox (was re: Introduction?!) > Date: Saturday, April 19, 1997 9:03 PM > > other disadvantages, both real and perceived: > 1) lack of marginability > 2) risk of manipulation > 3) risk of reverse splits > 4) more due diligence required > 5) others reasons, maybe, i avoid em...usually... > > mike ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Analysts Follwing "Cheap Priced Stocks" Date: 19 Apr 1997 22:51:23 -0400 Of course, a stock that has fallen from say $50 a year ago to $10 today is not likely to exhibit the kind of CANSLIM characteristics we should be looking for. May be a great company, and may have fixed the reasons for its fall from grace, but that much of a retreat will take time to rebuild credibility and CANSLIM characteristics. Buying it here is far more of value investing that CANSLIM, IMHO. tom w ---------- > From: Brenda > To: canslim@mail.xmission.com > Subject: [CANSLIM] Analysts Follwing "Cheap Priced Stocks" > Date: Saturday, April 19, 1997 1:17 PM > > Maybe there were not many analysts following them in the past, BUT now? How > about the $200 stocks that are now $5, how about the $100 stocks that are > $5, how about the $50 stocks that are now $5, how about the $25 stocks that > are now $5. If they drop every stock that falls to below $10-12 they may ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] The New Top Five Date: 19 Apr 1997 23:01:31 -0400 It's all a Dallas based dream, Mike. History will prove your memory, and those news stories, to be in error. And I did go lay out in the sun for awhile, actually fell asleep so not so comfortable right now, been a long time since I got any sun. And got a haircut too, so did get something accomplished this weekend! tom w ---------- > From: Michael A Langston > To: canslim@mail.xmission.com > Subject: re: [CANSLIM] The New Top Five > Date: Saturday, April 19, 1997 1:47 PM > > > Alright, I swear I will not, repeat, will not spend this glorious > > sunny weekend sitting in front of my computer > > yea yea, sure, uh huh, we've heard that one before tom > > p.s. as for Ms G, i couldn't help but notice that in the recent > URL posted here she claims to be a workaholic not an alcoholic, > and that she was canned because she was looking out for her > shareholders best interests -- i guess my recollection both of > news stories about her driving record and of stats on her fund's > performance must be in error ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Wm J. O'Neil at Berkeley Marriot Date: 19 Apr 1997 23:09:22 -0400 Thanks Dan, always helpful to know WON hasn't changed his stance, and is still "gung ho America". From your comments, I pick up a hint that he thinks that "rocketing up" period may be close at hand. Did he give any suggestion on how much longer he thinks we will be in a "bearish" mode? What was his attitude on Greenspan, from your comments sounds like he disagrees with his monetary policy and decision making. Was this your impression? tom w ---------- Scheduled at 10:00 am, WON strode up to the podium at 10:01 and began speaking to a packed house. This is the 2nd one of these I saw, the 1. We are, of course, in a bearish mode at present. He was reminded been for the tight controls imposed by Alan Greenspan and the Fed. 1% greater, if I heard correctly. He reiterated that there is nothing 5. WON emphasized that it is very useful to be able to recognize the market bottom signaling the end of a bear market cycle, since many stocks will rocket up quickly, and there are great profits to be made ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Craig A. Griffin" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Elaine G speaks again Date: 19 Apr 1997 23:32:17 -0400 Tom, Thanks I laughed until there were tears in my eyes. Craig At 08:30 PM 4/18/97 -0400, you wrote: >... Now at least I understand her claims of her clients enjoying >cumulative returns of 1275% over 15 years when she claims that >we've had a "3.2% correction on the s&p and 2.8% on the dow". >Obviously she's following a different mkt than I, so returns are >whatever nrs she decides to use. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: musicant@autobahn.org (Dan Musicant) Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Wm J. O'Neil at Berkeley Marriot Date: 20 Apr 1997 03:48:51 GMT On Sat, 19 Apr 1997 23:09:22 -0400, you wrote: :Thanks Dan, always helpful to know WON hasn't changed his stance, :and is still "gung ho America". From your comments, I pick up a :hint that he thinks that "rocketing up" period may be close at :hand. Did he give any suggestion on how much longer he thinks we :will be in a "bearish" mode? :What was his attitude on Greenspan, from your comments sounds like :he disagrees with his monetary policy and decision making. Was this :your impression? : :tom w He did drop a figure of something like "6 months" from the market top which was around Jan. 28th or so...just "ballpark" speculation, I guess, and yes(!), he did make some comparisons to baseball which I gather he follows. Of course, WON would be the first to say that only the market will give the definitive answer!=20 He didn't go so far as to outright disparage Greenspan, but I think that his remark could be interpreted as criticism that the Fed is too restrictive. The remark was quick and off the cuff and you can read into it what you might. The other time I saw him he made quite a show of his critical view of congress in that they would not reduce the capital gains tax which WON views as taking the wind out of the sails of startups which he views as the life blood of the economy. So...I interpret all this as a possible attitude on his part concerning government, perhaps what would be called "laissez faire."=20 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Michael R. Jeffers" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Quick Pick Analysis Date: 19 Apr 1997 21:00:45 At 12:06 PM 4/19/97 -0400, Tom wrote regarding KNGT: >Took a peek at DG online, here is what I found. >Funds already own 55% so they control this stock up or down and >little likelihood of much of an increase >biggest single CANSLIM neg is the up/down is 0.7 (anything below >0.8 is neg). > >Before I looked at a yahoo chart, assuming you didn't have DG >available, at least review the other CANSLIM criteria available to >you with IBD in front of you. First of all to Tom, thanks for getting me back on track with reviewing the average daily volume. As James says you can use TC2000 for quite some time, and still find ways to tweak it. I have adjusted my screens accordingly. However I still have a problem in locating information (besides DG) on how much funds control of any stock. If I had of know the amount of fund involvement in the stock, I probably would have bought a smaller amount. Also, I know I should know this, but what is meant by the "up/down", and is there anywhere else this info can be found besides DG? I know it takes money to make money, but due to an imminent move to Germany for the next three years, I have to decide on whether to continue my subscription to IBD. Paying for that with the expected late delivery would be bad enough, but to pay the high cost for DG AND get it late would be a real drag. Thanx to all. Just Little 'Ole Me, Michael R. Jeffers ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: GoldFish Subject: [CANSLIM] Weekly Result of Jame's 4/4/97 stock picks Date: 20 Apr 1997 00:31:31 -0700 Hi Folks: Here is the results shown on my screen: Current Paid Gain ASTSF $36 1/2 $34 $2.5 7.35% GDYS $23 1/2 $23 5/8 -$0.12 -0.53% MLHR $34 5/8 $35.56 -$0.94 -2.63% PSUN $32 1/2 $34 -$1.50 -4.41% SRR $13 7/8 $15 1/4 -$1.38 -9.02% TUES $28 1/2 $33 -$4.5 -13.64% Total -$5.94 -3.38% Note: 1) MLHR recently has a 2-for-1 split, therefore the purchased price is divided by 2. It will affect the gain in dollar but not the percentage. 2) We should have sold GDYS,PSUN and TUES last week according to CANSLIM. At that time, they all fall below 7% (or more) of the purchase price. But this week, GDYS and PSUN have moved back and cut their loss to 0.53% and 4.41% respectively. May be that is why Jame is yelling to use 15% stop loss instead of 7% or 8% stop loss. But it is too arbitary, subjective, artistic... I learned Bolinger (sp?) Band last week. He uses one standard deviation on the moving average (200 days, 100 days..). It seems to be a good idea than the hard limit 7%. Just a thought to share with you folks! -- GoldFish "Every stock is a bad stock..." ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Quick Pick Analysis Date: 20 Apr 1997 01:30:31 -0400 I'm sure there are places on the net where you can get up/down vol, just not sure since I always use DG. Would suggest signing up for DG online once available if IBD won't get to you in a timely fashion. At least then you get daily info, plus lots of lists to look at. Could still pick up an occasional IBD when available. Up/down volume is simply a measure, similiar to accumulation/distribution, of what is happening to the shares trading. With up/down vol, you get a clue on high vol days esp, whether the stock is more likely to move up than down. Anything over 0.8 is treated as positive (accumulation) while under 0.8 suggests distribution. With the accum/dist index (A thru E) you get a signal whether those shares are moving from the funds into retail hands (D, E - distributional) or are being accumulated by institutional holders (A, B - accumulation). Obviously, with HGS you want the funds to increase ownership since they can buy a few more shares than most of us. tom w ---------- > From: Michael R. Jeffers > To: canslim@mail.xmission.com > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Quick Pick Analysis > Date: Saturday, April 19, 1997 5:00 PM > > > Also, I know I should know this, but what is meant by the "up/down", and > is there anywhere else this info can be found besides DG? > I know it takes money to make money, but due to an imminent move to > Germany for the next three years, I have to decide on whether to continue > my subscription to IBD. Paying for that with the expected late delivery > would be bad enough, but to pay the high cost for DG AND get it late would > be a real drag. Thanx to all. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: pwahl@postoffice.worldnet.att.net Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] WON at Berkeley Marriot Date: 19 Apr 1997 23:58:07 -0800 > From: musicant@autobahn.org (Dan Musicant) > Scheduled at 10:00 am, WON strode up to the podium at 10:01 and began > speaking to a packed house. This is the 2nd one of these I saw, the Nice job of summarizing everything. Thanks a bunch. Patrick Wahl ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Johan Van Houtven Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] The New Top Five Date: 19 Apr 1997 21:00:56 +0200 Tom wrote: >Granted, it's cold here >in Miami, actually had to close the windows last night when it >dropped down to 50 or so, hope Johan and family took their warm >coats! Sunday was our first day in Orlando and it was a nice, warm day. Monday was cold and it rained the whole day. Tuesday at 4AM we recieved a phone call from Belgium with some sad news. We had to return home immediately. And so we did. Alas we did not make it back in time. I'm sad to say that my mother-in-law (who btw was the best mother-in-law I could ever have hoped for or imagined) has passed away. Johan Van Houtven CLICK! N.V. / Wilrijk, Belgium ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: [CANSLIM] New virus Date: 20 Apr 1997 10:57:08 -0400 Was just alerted to a new virus which deletes your files. Origin indicated as aol4free.com and displays a window once it starts showing the files being deleted. tom w ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] The New Top Five Date: 20 Apr 1997 10:50:21 -0400 I'm sorry to hear your sad news, Johan. It sounds like you had a good relationship with her, and she will be missed. tom w ---------- > From: Johan Van Houtven > To: canslim@mail.xmission.com > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] The New Top Five > Date: Saturday, April 19, 1997 3:00 PM > > I'm sad to say that my mother-in-law (who btw was the best mother-in-law I > could ever have hoped for or imagined) has passed away. > > > > Johan Van Houtven > CLICK! N.V. / Wilrijk, Belgium ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Weekly Result of Jame's 4/4/97 stock picks Date: 20 Apr 1997 10:53:14 -0400 I noted that O'Neill in his presentation on Saturday even seemed to encourage looser stops if you are going to be in this market, altho still stressing the correct entry point with an 8% stop from there. tom w ---------- > From: GoldFish > To: canslim@mail.xmission.com > Subject: [CANSLIM] Weekly Result of Jame's 4/4/97 stock picks > Date: Sunday, April 20, 1997 3:31 AM > > May be that is why Jame is yelling to use 15% stop loss instead of > 7% or 8% stop loss. But it is too arbitary, subjective, artistic... > I learned Bolinger (sp?) Band last week. He uses > one standard deviation on the moving average (200 days, 100 days..). > It seems to be a good idea than the hard limit 7%. Just a thought > to share with you folks! > > > -- > GoldFish > "Every stock is a bad stock..." ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Craig A. Griffin" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Quick Pick Analysis Date: 20 Apr 1997 15:05:37 -0400 Michael, At 07:04 PM 4/18/97, you wrote: >Group, > After all I've read from this group, I see I'm not the only one with >little to no time. So when I read that WON takes about 30 mins. each morn >to review IBD (this info was gathered from his AOL chat session posted >here), I tried to emulate. I think that is a worthwhile endeavor (using limited time to pursue Canslim successfully). And I think that with DG's online and a breakout notification service of some sort (pager or Internet watchlist notification), it should be possible to pursue from Germany (with minimal time invested). It is something I have been struggling towards: a minimalist approach to practicing CANSLIM (say 4-12 hours a week). Pittbull tries to accomplish this, but I think he uses too limited an approach. Regards, Craig PS. Congrats on KNGT. Looks like "so far so good" on the chart. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Craig A. Griffin" Subject: [CANSLIM] Derek's STIX Charts Date: 20 Apr 1997 15:16:34 -0400 Derek, I notice that your STIX charts are beginning to reach the same range on the NASDAQ as they had in July of last year. Also appears that they haven't been updated for a week or two on your website. What is your reading of them now? By the way, I notice that HMX has done well since you featured it on your webpage a couple of weeks back. Congratulations. Regards, Craig PS. To see Derek's NASDAQ chart, browse http://www.geocities.com/WallStreet/7422/STIXNDQ.gif To see his homepage, browse http://www.geocities.com/WallStreet/7422/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: leojung Subject: [CANSLIM] Greetings Date: 20 Apr 1997 13:26:36 -0700 Hello. I would like to introduce myself to the group. I have been lurking and learning for a while now. I have been investing in various things since the early 1970's, including silver, stocks, options, and mutual funds with various degrees of success. I have a strong scientific inclination, and formal education in medicine, electronics, gems, and computer science. I like learning, founded Mensa in B.C. and have the dubious distinction of having won a full scholarship to MIT, and then being too shy to attend! I was very young at the time. I am currently informally studying the syllabus of the CFA exam and learning the WON approach. It makes a lot of sense to me. I have a solid acquaintance with neural nets, genetic algorithms, chaos theory, and more esoteric approaches to trading, including arbritrage theory and ideas espoused by Soros such as reflexivity. And I live in the land of the wild west - the Vancouver Stock Exchange! But that's a different story. If any of you are interested, drop me a line and I'll send you stories to curl your hair! Of the many technical and fundamental approaches, WON's seems like one of the best combinations I have encountered. Now that I have said my piece, I will return to lurking and waiting for 'M' (though it seems like waiting for Godot).  ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Michael A Langston Subject: [CANSLIM] auto stox Date: 20 Apr 1997 16:43:11 -0400 check out these G numbers: group rel str \ date 4/18 4/11 4/4 3/28 3/21 3/14 3/7 2/28 AUTO MFRS -DOMESTIC 8 8 7 8 19 15 14 26 AUTO MFRS -FOREIGN 87 87 94 90 70 64 63 51 thus domestic autos have a slightly negative group speed, while foreign auots have a very positive group speed -- yea, i know, you gotta figure in the dollar and differing economic cycles -- nevertheless, this dichotomy doesn't seem quite right to me unless we're recession bound, C and F for example are probably worth the dividend alone here -- and if we are recession bound, owning foreign auto stox ain't gonna be a bed of roses comments welcomed, i'm no auto expert, just wondering if this might be a possible market inefficiency mike p.s. credit for #s to bob klasky, who posts them weekly on delphi ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: James Adams Subject: [CANSLIM] Testing A System -Winners this week Date: 20 Apr 1997 17:50:14 -0500 This past Monday I decided to test a selection method using DGs. Here is the criteria: 1) The RS >90 2) The RS line had moved up at=20 least one line on the "X" price scale from the previous week=20 and was still rising. 3) EPS >80 4) Timeliness A 5) Acc/Dis A/B 6) Below 52week high. Here's the picks that I made based on the abov criteria and how they did = this week.I'm trying to determine if there is a pattern. My DGs run out = this week so the one I recieve tomorrow will be the last one.Any = comments appreciated. RS EPS Time A/D Off52wk $Change SECP 90 95 A B 4% 5.50=09 MACD 95 96 A A 4% 4.27=09 RHBC 93 82 A B 40% 1.50=09 ORBKF 96 98 A A 10% 0.50=09 FESX 92 82 A B 8% 0.13=09 PRFN 91 99 A A 0% 0.00=09 MCCO 92 94 A B 20% -1.38=09 GDMI 97 97 A A 27% -2.13=09 Jim Adams..........................Maysville, KY USA http://www.cris.com/~jimadams/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: derek b Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Derek's STIX Charts Date: 20 Apr 1997 18:59:13 -0400 Ask and ye shall receive. The Nasdaq and NYSE STIX Advance / Decline indicator charts are now up-to-date. These are breadth indicators for M strength / weakness. Failure to bounce off support in the Nasdaq STIX got me out of the market about a month ago. The STIX for NYSE continues to look healthier than Nasdaq. I would have preferred a deeper correction in the Nasdaq to set up for a powerful upturn, as happened with the double bottom last July. Currently, the Naz STIX is wiggling around the 45 blue line. A powerful break of that line is normally considered a buy signal. But, I'm not convinced yet. I continue to feel that risk in the Naz is exceptionally high, more tradeable plays are available on the NYSE. I decided to try the 3-letter stock breakouts, and am currently holding a small position in HMX for a current 17% gain. Derek > I notice that your STIX charts are beginning to reach the same range on the > NASDAQ as they had in July of last year. Also appears that they haven't > been updated for a week or two on your website. What is your reading of > them now? > > By the way, I notice that HMX has done well since you featured it on your > webpage a couple of weeks back. Congratulations. > > Regards, > Craig > > PS. To see Derek's NASDAQ chart, browse > http://www.geocities.com/WallStreet/7422/STIXNDQ.gif > To see his homepage, browse > http://www.geocities.com/WallStreet/7422/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: [CANSLIM] Health, Leadership of the Market Date: 20 Apr 1997 20:11:40 -0400 When the mkt is confused, and leadership uncertain, one thing I do occasionally is review the stocks hitting new highs to see if there is a pattern. Well, I did that this weekend, and results were not encouraging. Fully a third of the new highs on NASDAQ came from thinly traded (I'm talking about an avg of 8000 or so, or less, shares a day) regional banks. Most of them showed an EPS down in the 50 level or so. In addition there were a number of retail stocks, many of which also showed poor CANSLIM characteristics. I was also looking for another DS type situation, you know, solid co, sitting at its highs, earnings due with the potential for beating estimates and gapping up 5 pts or so in a day. Did find one that is somewhat amazing, EPS 1, a/d E, no RS yet (recent IPO), vol falling (avg is 158K, Friday was 38K and hit new high). Good example of why recent IPO issues are unpredictable. Almost a straight spike from its issue at 15 to nearly 19. Here are the ones I found that I considered worth the cost of paper and printer ink to print, none are great, all have at least decent CANSLIM characteristics: DF, SNS, HMX (low priced), CPWR (been mentioned here before), MAVK, STGE (weak EPS at 40 but current earnings projected up 65%), MACD (mentioned here before, extended but looks strong), MFAC (despite a ratings cut on Friday still looks good, a pick by a novice here, good example of how we can learn from everyone), RHBC, SLGN (technically looks good but vol erratic, avg is 184K, hit a new high Friday on 6,100 shares with no short position indicated!). I also reviewed DG's list of top groups and was not encouraged there either, it only confirmed what I saw from looking at new highs. Top ten groups as of Friday were Shoes and rel apparel; Banks-west; Finance-investment bkrs; Banks-southeast; Retail-discount&variety; Banks-northeast; Beverages-soft drinks; Finance-savings & loan; Transportation -truck; Food - dairy products. The first "tech" group (Elec -semiconductor equip) didn't show up till 12th place, where it had fallen from 4th.The next "tech" was in 23rd place (Elec-semiconductor mfg) down from 21st, followed by Computer - Memory devices in 46th place, down from 34th. These were the only "tech" groups in the top 50. While the notes on WON's speech at the Marriott suggested to me that he thinks we are close to the bottom of this correction, I could not find support so far in the leading groups or new highs. I also reviewed the Market Indicator Charts for both NYSE and NASDAQ. Neither are overbought right now, in fact NASDAQ is mildly oversold. Up/down vol appears to be trying to find some equilibrium on both exchanges, but new hi/low on NASDAQ remains ugly. Yeah, I know, I changed my approach to reviewing the market. Call me zany and unpredictable, OK? Besides, if I took my usual approach, I would just repeat myself, you know dollar strong, gold bearish, rate hike coming and bonds not adjusting, blah, blah, blah. Money flow into mutual funds continues to slow, and shift from stock funds to bond funds continues. No surprise, small cap and tech funds show the worst nrs, big caps benefiting. International funds appear the strongest, after fixed income funds, where hi yield funds came out on top. Got no requests for earnings estimates for stocks reporting next week, so will discontinue offering this, apparently all have sufficient info already. Have a great week tom w Any opinions are strictly my own and not that of my employer. My comments are based on a variety of sources and are intended strictly to assist and inform. In no way am I suggesting a buy, sell, or hold decision based on my comments or observations. I always urge an investor to do his or her own homework, and be sure the risk of the market can be tolerated and any losses accepted gracefully. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Joan Sherman Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] The New Top Five Date: 20 Apr 1997 20:50:45 +0100 Please accept my condolences to you and your wife's family on the loss of her mom. Joan Sherman Joan Sherman, /\~~~/\ Babe and /\~/\ /\~/\ and > < Lucky, ^ ^ ^ ^ Courtney and > * * < our Clapton, a Tabby Samoyeds and a Maine Coon Help support animal rescue ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] auto stox Date: 20 Apr 1997 20:45:32 -0400 If I recall right, the major US mfr's all reported decent to better than expected earnings as well. On the other hand, there was a story Friday involving at least one major mfr talking to congress about the problems being caused by the strong dollar and how they are losing mkt share just as they were starting to catch up to Japan. For some reason, they didn't seem as concerned about European mfr's, I guess just on sheer nrs and quantity of cars Japan is the bigger problem. Seems like the classic "don't think the growth in earnings and sales can continue" scenario. tom w ---------- > From: Michael A Langston > To: canslim@mail.xmission.com > Subject: [CANSLIM] auto stox > Date: Sunday, April 20, 1997 4:43 PM > > thus domestic autos have a slightly negative group speed, while > foreign auots have a very positive group speed -- yea, i know, > you gotta figure in the dollar and differing economic cycles -- > nevertheless, this dichotomy doesn't seem quite right to me > > unless we're recession bound, C and F for example are probably > worth the dividend alone here -- and if we are recession bound, > owning foreign auto stox ain't gonna be a bed of roses > weekly on delphi ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Greetings Date: 20 Apr 1997 20:53:28 -0400 Welcome, Leo, hope you enjoy the group. I think you are light years ahead of me in some of the more "esoteric" approaches to the mkt, every time I tried to understand them I fell asleep! Fortunately for me, CANSLIM isn't as complicated or requires as much formula, it's more a philosophy than a science, IMHO. And thanks for the offer, but those "Vancouver" stories have already turned my curly hair into straight wiry brush! Don't need any more nightmares, still can't imagine how I missed out on Bre-X. tom w ---------- > From: leojung > To: canslim@mail.xmission.com > Subject: [CANSLIM] Greetings > Date: Sunday, April 20, 1997 4:26 PM > > I have a solid acquaintance with neural nets, genetic algorithms, > chaos theory, and more esoteric approaches to trading, including > arbritrage theory and ideas espoused by Soros such as reflexivity. > > And I live in the land of the wild west - the Vancouver Stock > Exchange! But that's a different story. If any of you are > interested, drop me a line and I'll send you stories to curl > your hair! > ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Testing A System -Winners this week Date: 20 Apr 1997 21:28:48 -0400 Here's an update based on the new DG charts (I love DG online!) If your data remained the same, no entry. RS EPS TIME A/D U/D GRS VOL COMMENT SECP 92 2.2 92 dwn MACD 97 3.8 66 up thinly traded RHBC 96 2.1 33 dwn ORBKF 95 1.2 88 dwn FESX 93 81 1.2 95 dwn PRFN 93 2.1 95 ---- very thinly traded MCCO 89 B D 1.1 4 dwn, strong downtrend on chart GDMI 96 B B 1.9 87 dwn MCCO should definitely drop off your list, not sure how it made it there in first place. GDMI is weakening, and the rest are not showing pos vol indicators altho the CANSLIM characteristics are good. MACD and RHBC both showed up on charts I was reviewing this weekend, MACD however thinly traded. Both could also be held back by weak group RS. The chart on SECP did not indicate a $5.50 gain for the week. tom w ---------- This past Monday I decided to test a selection method using DGs. Here is the criteria: 1) The RS >90 2) The RS line had moved up at 3) EPS >80 4) Timeliness A 5) Acc/Dis A/B 6) Below 52week high. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Jimmy Sorrells Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Testing A System -Winners this week Date: 20 Apr 1997 22:11:20 -0500 James Adams wrote: > > This past Monday I decided to test a selection method using DGs. > Here is the criteria: ... > 6) Below 52week high. Why below 52 week high? Why not choose those making new high? How much below the high are you looking for? Was the $Change the change from your buy price? What is your strategy for selling those with negative change in price? Thanks for the information. Jimmy Sorrells ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: pwahl@postoffice.worldnet.att.net Subject: [CANSLIM] Miscellaneous market stuff Date: 20 Apr 1997 19:56:25 -0800 Here is some of the stuff I noticed while going over charts this weekend (tom, you aren't the only one that does that). I agree with James that most of the stuff looks pretty bad. Intel looks like it is forming what Trader Vic (Sperandeo) calls a 1-2-3 pattern. 1 is violation of a trendline, 2 is a retest of the trendline, 3 is a break above the high made when the trendline is initially broken. If I'm reading this right, which isn't certain, Intel would have to clear 150 or so to be a buy under this 123 scenario. Ascend is sitting right on long term support. This is definitely non-canslim type stuff, but anyone who likes to bottom fish, this would be the place for ASND. Minimal risk because if it drops down to around 37, you can figure that support didn't hold. Pre-Paid Legal had earnings out this week that were pretty good, probably in-line with expectations. If they keep cranking out earnings the way they have been, eventually the stock should get rolling. THe p/e is quite a bit below the growth rate. Don't know if this is because of overall market environment or just skepticism about the company. Encad also had good earnings, didn't do anything for the stock, pattern a bit choppy. The DJ Utility average would seem to have support at 205. If it broke that, I would say look out below for the market. The NASDAQ shows support at 1200. Has rallied back up since hitting that point a week or two ago. Some stocks that have held up pretty well through recent market decline are Imax Corp, Adaptec, Ballantyne, MRV Communications Oxford Health. MRVC reported good earnings again this week, up 100%. Thats it ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: pwahl@postoffice.worldnet.att.net Subject: [CANSLIM] Oops Date: 20 Apr 1997 20:55:14 -0800 Oops, I think I said MRVC reported earnings, but don't believe they have reported them yet. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Joseph Vaughn-Perling Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] New virus Date: 21 Apr 1997 21:54:19 -0700 Its likely a hoax, but then again, who would bother to run a file called AOL4Free.com anyway? For details check out http://www.kumite.com/myths/myths/myth031.htm ---------- Sent: Sunday, April 20, 1997 7:57 AM Was just alerted to a new virus which deletes your files. Origin indicated as aol4free.com and displays a window once it starts showing the files being deleted. tom w ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Zoran Mitrovski Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] New virus Date: 21 Apr 1997 02:23:18 -0400 (EDT) Just got back from a great weekend in NYC. On viruses, just got this hot over the wire: If you receive an e-mail with a subject of "Badtimes," delete it immediately WITHOUT reading it. This is the most dangerous Email virus yet. It will re-write your hard drive. Not only that, but it will scramble any disks that are even close to your computer. It will recalibrate your refrigerator's coolness setting so all your ice cream goes melty. It will demagnetize the strips on all your credit cards, screw up the tracking on your VCR and use subspace field harmonics to scratch any CD's you try to play. It will give your ex-boyfriend/girlfriend your new phone number. It will mix Kool-aid into your fishtank. It will drink all your beer and leave its socks out on the coffee table when there's company coming over. It will put a dead kitten in the back pocket of your good suit pants and hide your car keys when you are late for work. Badtimes will make you fall in love with a penguin. It will give you nightmares about circus midgets. It will pour sugar in your gas tank and shave off both your eyebrows while dating your current boyfriend/girlfriend behind your back and billing the dinner and hotel room to your Visa card. It will seduce your grandmother. It does not matter if she is dead, such is the power of Badtimes, it reaches out beyond the grave to sully those things we hold most dear. It moves your car randomly around parking lots so you can't find it. It will kick your dog. It will leave libidinous messages on your boss's voice mail in your voice! It is insidious and subtle. It is dangerous and terrifying to behold. It is also a rather interesting shade of mauve. Badtimes will give you Dutch Elm disease. It will leave the toilet seat up. It will make a batch of Methamphetamine in your bathtub and then leave bacon cooking on the stove while it goes out to chase gradeschoolers with your new snowblower. These are just a few signs... Just be very careful! Cheers, Zoran http://www.seas.rochester.edu:8080/ee/users/zmitrov/home.html ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Miscellaneous market stuff Date: 21 Apr 1997 07:11:00 -0400 In a rising interest rate environment, expect utilities to fall (higher yields on bonds become more attractive). MRVC due to report 4/29, forecast for this year is .80, up 74%. Last four qtrs were all up over 100%. Despite that, RS is 44 and group RS is 34. U/D is a neutral at 0.8. Go figure. I think one problem PPD has is the exchange where it is listed. Don't know why good profitable cos stay on AMEX. Can't agree with you on ASND, with an u/d of 0.6, and no nearby base, I see no support for it yet. Same basic comment on PPD, chart doesn't show it reversing current downtrend to me. tom w ---------- > From: pwahl@postoffice.worldnet.att.net > To: canslim@mail.xmission.com > Subject: [CANSLIM] Miscellaneous market stuff > Date: Sunday, April 20, 1997 11:56 PM > > Pre-Paid Legal had earnings out this week that were pretty good, > probably in-line with expectations. If they keep cranking out > earnings the way they have been, eventually the stock should get > rolling. THe p/e is quite a bit below the growth rate. Don't know > if this is because of overall market environment or just skepticism > about the company. > > The DJ Utility average would seem to have support at 205. If it > broke that, I would say look out below for the market. > > Some stocks that have held up pretty well through recent market > decline are Imax Corp, Adaptec, Ballantyne, MRV Communications Oxford > Health. MRVC reported good earnings again this week, up 100%. > > Thats it ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Brenda" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Miscellaneous market stuff Date: 21 Apr 1997 07:56:13 -0500 TOM! Is senility already setting in? How quickly you forget! Have you alreadry forgotten? Interest rates rising? NO SHE SAID! No increase at the next meeting and a decrease by the end of the year! And when was she last wrong? Get a grip. Have a good day all! James ---------- > From: Tom Worley > To: canslim@mail.xmission.com > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Miscellaneous market stuff > Date: Monday, April 21, 1997 6:11 AM > > In a rising interest rate environment, expect utilities to fall > (higher yields on bonds become more attractive). ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: jeff@scrooge.idec.sdl.usu.edu (Jeff Salisbury) Subject: [CANSLIM] Duplicated postings Date: 21 Apr 1997 08:18:58 -0600 Tom, I initially noticed the duplicated postings, but was then releived when you "confessed" that your ISP stumbled :^). Since it appears that all the dups were not your ISP's problem, I will see if I can track down the problem. I've received no notice from Xmission of any problems, but I will ask. As of today (Monday), I haven't noticed any dups since Saturday. Best Regards, Jeff ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Craig A. Griffin" Subject: [CANSLIM] Neat New Website Date: 21 Apr 1997 11:06:37 -0400 Don't know where this came from, if it has already been posted to the list, please excuse. Otherwise, take a look at this site --- http://www.dailystocks.com/ It is great! Links to earnings calendar, stock splits, gov't reports due, earnings surprises, insider trading, and more. All as though it is just one site (ie. it takes to to the "meat" of the linked site, not just the frontpage. Take a look. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: pwahl@postoffice.worldnet.att.net Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Miscellaneous market stuff Date: 21 Apr 1997 08:22:30 -0800 > From: "Tom Worley" > I think one problem PPD has is the exchange where it is listed. > Don't know why good profitable cos stay on AMEX. Agree on the AMEX. Rarely look at stocks there, the AMEX seems to attract a bunch of riff-raff, but can't exclude every stock over there just on the basis of where it is listed. > Can't agree with you on ASND, with an u/d of 0.6, and no nearby > base, I see no support for it yet. Same basic comment on PPD, chart > doesn't show it reversing current downtrend to me. Think we are using the word support in different ways regarding ASND. Look back to about July 24, 1996 and you will see that price briefly went down to 39, and again on April 4 of this year, and then again last week. Buyers have stepped in and bought Ascend at 39 twice in the last 8 months, therefore 39 is support by my definition of that word. Given the overall weakness in the networking group and the Cascade acquisition hanging over its head, would not expect any big bounce here even if ASND did hold at 39. Patrick Wahl ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Johan Van Houtven Subject: [CANSLIM] MSON Date: 21 Apr 1997 17:46:12 +0200 MSON CANSLIM stock breaking out to new high as I right. Sorry, do not have the time at the moment to look up the CANSLIM nrs. --- Johan Van Houtven ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Brenda" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Neat New Website Date: 21 Apr 1997 10:54:22 -0500 Thanks for the site. Wondered what I was going to do today since I didn't have anything else planned. How long did you spend there? What site did you find the most interesting and possibly helpful with your investment style. Printer has been printing for the last 15 minutes and is still going. Looks like I've got a lot of reading to do. Oh well, once again, Thanks Craig! James ---------- > From: Craig A. Griffin > To: canslim@xmission.com > Subject: [CANSLIM] Neat New Website > Date: Monday, April 21, 1997 10:06 AM > > Don't know where this came from, if it has already been posted to the list, > please excuse. Otherwise, take a look at this site --- > http://www.dailystocks.com/ > ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Brenda" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Neat New Website Date: 21 Apr 1997 10:54:22 -0500 Thanks for the site. Wondered what I was going to do today since I didn't have anything else planned. How long did you spend there? What site did you find the most interesting and possibly helpful with your investment style. Printer has been printing for the last 15 minutes and is still going. Looks like I've got a lot of reading to do. Oh well, once again, Thanks Craig! James ---------- > From: Craig A. Griffin > To: canslim@xmission.com > Subject: [CANSLIM] Neat New Website > Date: Monday, April 21, 1997 10:06 AM > > Don't know where this came from, if it has already been posted to the list, > please excuse. Otherwise, take a look at this site --- > http://www.dailystocks.com/ > ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Peter Christiansen Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] New virus Date: 21 Apr 1997 23:54:13 GMT+7 ** Reply to note from Zoran Mitrovski Mon, 21 Apr 1997 02:23:18 -0400 (EDT) > Just got back from a great weekend in NYC. > On viruses, just got this hot over the wire: FWIW, The following is from my ISP concerning E-Mail viruses. EMAIL VIRUS NONSENSE -------------------- There are no "email viruses" which affect your PC when you read a plain text message. But there are many hoaxes about such mythical viruses. For information on the hoaxes, see: http://www.drsolomon.com/ Current well-known hoaxes: Good Times, Irina, Deeyenda, PenPal Greetings, Ghost, Free Money, Eyes, Sheep, References. As always, be careful about running programs or reading word-processor and spreadsheet files you receive ATTACHED to emails. You can get a virus or "macro virus" from these files if they are infected. Peter Christiansen Bangkok, Thailand Connected with OS/2 Warp 3.0 & The Post Road Mailer _____________________________________________________________________________________ SET PATH=Bookshelf;DeskDrawer;Closet;BoxUnderBed;GarbageCan ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Brenda" Subject: [CANSLIM] High Priced Stock Now Low Priced Date: 21 Apr 1997 13:33:16 -0500 Over the week-end someone asked me to name a high priced stock with lots of volume that is now under $12. I had stated that it is a happening almost every single day now and it is no longer unusual. I also stated that it is not AT ALL UNUSUAL to see a stock down more today than the remaining price per share. Todays Debacle - APAC, over $60 a share about six months ago, down more at this moment than the remaining price of about $11. Just today's debackle. Tomorrow will almost assuredly have another and the next day another. It's just a guess as to which it will be tomorrow. That is why I have actual physical stop loss orders placed on every single stock I own. I have never had to do this before. I watch the market like a HAWK and am constantly updating quotes and have a ticker tape going across in front of me with all current positions and ones that I am currently watching. Still not enough in this market. Do be extremely careful if you choose to be "IN". James ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Brenda" Subject: [CANSLIM] MLHR Date: 21 Apr 1997 14:00:07 -0500 OK you wise ones! Have tiny profit still left. Where do you put your stop loss on this one? Does it really matter where you got in? Is your stop loss different if you got in at almost the top from if you got in 2 months ago? Try it both ways. Very interested in your comments. (Especially yours Tom - guess your broker friend is now smiling and glad he "missed" it). James ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Brenda" Subject: [CANSLIM] Hot Shot Analysts - Hot Predictions! Date: 21 Apr 1997 13:50:14 -0500 Just to show you how many times you could not do much worse than the biggest, suppossedly best, extremely well known, highly followed and making lots more money than probably ALL of us combined here is a good one. If you had waited to buy AMD until the BIGGIES made it a STRONG buy that would not have been that long ago. If you had bought just 200 shares less than 30 days ago you would now be down over $2000 and over 20%. AND people PAY these people to make these recommendations. If it was a strong buy when they recommended it what is it now? A SCREAMING HOT STRONG STRONG BUY? Well, actually, you might be able to get onboard now and not lose 20% before it turns around. This stock could "easily" be one of those that shoots up 30-40-50% in a matter of days not weeks. BUT, when do you get in? Stop loss here got me out and I was wondering if I should have had even a looser one but the insurance at this point was worth it. James ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Peter P. Newell" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] MLHR Date: 21 Apr 1997 16:09 -0400 (EDT) :Novice advice When it touches the base, not sure exactly when that is sell it. It's okay if it comes close however. In market wizards(good reading by the way) O'ryan says on an initial buy(first day or two) will sell half the position if it re-enters the base because the chances of having a bad trade have significantly increased. Also, he likes to see an up day the first day. Peter Newell ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Peter P. Newell" Subject: [CANSLIM] RE: Hot Shot Analysists... AMD Date: 21 Apr 1997 16:55 -0400 (EDT) James, From a canslim perspective I wouldn't touch this stock. From a technical perspective the chart is too wide and loose, look and how tight it is before it breaks to $15 in september for a triple. From a fundamental point of view, 97 pe 26, 98 pe 11 tough competitive industry might get pe 15 too much could go wrong, I'd pass, or at least wait until it tightens up. Peter Newell ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Louis H. Gipson, RN" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] MLHR Date: 21 Apr 1997 12:46:24 -0700 Brenda wrote: > > OK you wise ones! Have tiny profit still left. Where do you put your stop > loss on this one? Does it really matter where you got in? Is your stop loss > different if you got in at almost the top from if you got in 2 months ago? > Try it both ways. Very interested in your comments. (Especially yours Tom - > guess your broker friend is now smiling and glad he "missed" it). > James Hi James, I am not one of the "wise ones" but if I had been following the graphs on this one I would have gotten in at about 30.25, followed it up to about 37 and sold at stop loss at about 34-35. This is just an amateur opinion from a CANSLIM student. One question to you James. What's your point??? Lou ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Brenda" Subject: [CANSLIM] Fw: Full Closing Bell @ 04/21/97 (3 stories) Date: 21 Apr 1997 21:13:25 -0500 Saw MSON mentioned here early this am. Here is a story you might be interested in if MSON caught your eye. Also, there is a story about CPB. Use the info if you can. Have a nice evening. James ---------- > From: Mercury Mail > To: bks@lcc.net > Subject: Full Closing Bell @ 04/21/97 (3 stories) > Date: Monday, April 21, 1997 8:34 PM > > Full Closing Bell for Monday, Apr 21, 1997 > > ******************************************************************* > MBA CENTRAL....Recruit the top MBA alumni and students > from the nation's leading business schools. Our exclusive > technology gives you only qualified, interested candidates. > Call today and we'll find your perfect Summer Intern -- FREE > http://www.mbacentral.com/adc3002 or call 1-800-932-4668 > ******************************************************************* > > (00s) > SYMBOL CLOSE CHANGE HIGH LOW VOLUME %CHNG > ------------------------------------------------------------ > ACRG 3 - 1/8 3 2 15/16 51 -4.0% > AMD 35 1/2 -1 1/4 36 7/8 35 22234 -3.4% > ALTR 47 1/4 +1 47 3/4 46 1/8 20138 +2.2% > ADRX 24 + 1/4 24 1/4 23 1/2 200 +1.1% > ASTSF 37 + 1/2 37 1/4 36 1/2 164 +1.4% > ASFC 36 7/8 + 3/8 37 1/4 36 1336 +1.0% > BBI 45 7/8 ... 46 3/8 45 3/4 3224 0.0% > CPB 47 3/8 - 1/8 48 1/4 46 7/8 5520 -0.3% > DS 34 3/4 + 1/2 34 7/8 34 3/8 3509 +1.5% > ESS 30 1/4 - 1/8 30 3/8 30 96 -0.4% > FULL 54 3/4 + 1/4 56 1/8 54 3818 +0.5% > GDYS 22 1/2 -1 23 5/8 22 1/2 3429 -4.3% > GRTR 17 13/16 + 3/16 17 7/8 17 3/8 624 +1.1% > MWL 28 3/8 +1 3/8 28 1/2 27 2137 +5.1% > MFN 2 1/8 - 1/8 2 1/4 2 4887 -5.6% > MLHR 32 1/16 -2 9/16 34 3/4 31 7/8 4602 -7.4% > MSON 9 5/8 + 7/8 11 1/4 8 7/8 4310 +10.0% > PSUN 33 + 1/2 34 1/2 32 1773 +1.5% > QCSB 37 1/2 + 1/2 37 1/2 36 3/4 49 +1.4% > SEWY 35 + 1/2 35 33 23 +1.5% > SFDS 47 1/4 - 1/4 48 1/8 46 3/4 1973 -0.5% > SRR 13 5/8 - 1/4 13 3/4 13 3/8 5006 -1.8% > USLD 11 3/4 - 1/4 12 11 5/8 1482 -2.1% > WBPR 16 - 3/4 17 16 80 -4.5% > .INDU 6,660.21 -43.34 6,721.21 6,616.86 -0.7% > ------------------------------------------------------------ > > * CAMPBELL SOUP will launch an innovative new line of juices > beginning next month, joining the company's $300 million V8 > juice brand. New "V8 Splash" combines tropical fruits such as > pineapple, kiwi, lime and mango with the nutritional goodness > of carrot juice for a refreshing beverage that provides 100% of > the Recommended Daily Value of vitamins A and C. Campbell will > also introduce a line of "Healthy Request V8" juice with the > great taste of traditional, tomato-based V8 juice, but with 25% > less sodium. (PR Newswire 10:03 AM ET 04/21/97) Full story: > http://www.merc.com/stories/cgi/story.cgi?id=2545710-9f6 > > * MISONIX INC reported 3Q EPS loss of ($0.87)(including a charge > of $1.27/share) vs a profit of $0.09 in the prior year period, > on revenues of $5.1 mln vs $2.8 mln. (Reuters 10:17 AM ET > 04/21/97) For the full text story, see > http://www.merc.com/stories/cgi/story.cgi?id=2545753-a12 > > * MARKET NEWS: The Dow industrials slumped lower on Monday as > higher interest rates and a sell-off in tech stocks drained the > stock market of its momentum. The Dow fell 43 points to close > unofficially at 6660 after a thinly traded session that saw the > NYSE register its lowest daily volume this year (397 million). > Long-term rates pushed higher on the day, with the yield on the > benchmark 30-year U.S. Treasury rising by four basis points to > 7.09%, also on extremely thin volume. The sell-off was far more > severe among tech stocks, which dragged the Nasdaq Composite > down 19 points to 1204. The S&P 500 index fell six points to > 760. The dollar weakened at 1.6975 marks and 125.33 yen. For > the full text story, see > http://www.merc.com/stories/cgi/story.cgi?id=2551199-e47 > > > ====================================================================== > Mercury Mail, Inc. is an independent company not affiliated or > associated with Mercury Center, the San Jose Mercury News, or > Knight-Ridder, Inc. > Closing Bell is a trademark of Mercury Mail, Inc. > (c) 1997 Mercury Mail, Inc. All rights reserved. > > * If you'd like to subscribe to other Closing Bell products or > change your basket of securities, simply update your Closing Bell > profile. Visit http://www.merc.com/cb/cgi/cb_merc.cgi?action=enter > * If you do not have web access, or if you have any problems or > suggestions, send e-mail to our help desk at feedback@merc.com > > ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Miscellaneous market stuff Date: 21 Apr 1997 22:04:29 -0400 Be that as it may, I look at more current activity, and it did drop two pts today to a new 12 month low, so guess I'll take a "win" on this one, at least for today. And when I talk "support" I am usually referring to a defined base of some sort, or occasionally the 50 or 200 dma. Right now, the closest support I see on ASND is in the low 30s, and that's stretching. tom w ---------- > From: pwahl@postoffice.worldnet.att.net > To: canslim@mail.xmission.com > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Miscellaneous market stuff > Date: Monday, April 21, 1997 12:22 PM > > > From: "Tom Worley" > > > Can't agree with you on ASND, with an u/d of 0.6, and no nearby > > base, I see no support for it yet. Same basic comment on PPD, chart > > doesn't show it reversing current downtrend to me. > > Think we are using the word support in different ways regarding > ASND. Look back to about July 24, 1996 and you will see that price > briefly went down to 39, and again on April 4 of this year, and then > again last week. Buyers have stepped in and bought Ascend at 39 > twice in the last 8 months, therefore 39 is support by my definition > of that word. Given the overall weakness in the networking group > and the Cascade acquisition hanging over its head, would not expect > any big bounce here even if ASND did hold at 39. > > > > > Patrick Wahl ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Miscellaneous market stuff Date: 21 Apr 1997 22:01:11 -0400 I'll stick to my model, maybe she should try a new one. tom w ---------- > From: Brenda > To: canslim@mail.xmission.com > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Miscellaneous market stuff > Date: Monday, April 21, 1997 8:56 AM > > TOM! > Is senility already setting in? How quickly you forget! Have you > alreadry forgotten? Interest rates rising? NO SHE SAID! No increase at the > next meeting and a decrease by the end of the year! And when was she last > wrong? Get a grip. Have a good day all! > James > > ---------- > > From: Tom Worley > > To: canslim@mail.xmission.com > > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Miscellaneous market stuff > > Date: Monday, April 21, 1997 6:11 AM > > > > In a rising interest rate environment, expect utilities to fall > > (higher yields on bonds become more attractive). ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Hot Shot Analysts - Hot Predictions! Date: 21 Apr 1997 21:59:55 -0400 INTC's strength and new product introductions in its quest to take a larger share of networking chip business, esp the "fast ethernet" portion, is hurting a lot more than AMD. Today was another bloodbath for the networking group, still falling, with three main names, USRX, COMS and ASND if I remember right, all hitting new lows for the 12 months. tom w ---------- > From: Brenda > To: canslim > Subject: [CANSLIM] Hot Shot Analysts - Hot Predictions! > Date: Monday, April 21, 1997 2:50 PM > > had waited to buy AMD until the BIGGIES made it a STRONG buy that would not > have been that long ago. If you had bought just 200 shares less than 30 > days ago you would now be down over $2000 and over 20%. AND people PAY ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: [CANSLIM] Fw: Preliminary Report Date: 21 Apr 1997 22:39:58 -0400 In a convoluted, confused, chaotic, unpredictable, illogical, and unside down market, I am impressed with James' CANSLIM variation to pick stocks that don't seem to be hurt on the down days, and on average to create a portfolio that moves up overall even on bad days, and does much better on the few good days we are teased with. Here is his summary for Monday of the list he put together this past weekend. And I cannot help but note that the techs continue to report earnings beating estimates and losing several points on the news (today's examples were MCAF and QCOM, both beat projections by 4 cents, both down several pts, QCOM I think was down over 4 at one point). MSFT and INTC trying to act like leaders, maybe there is some hope yet. tom w ---------- > From: Brenda > To: Tom Worley > Subject: Preliminary Report > Date: Monday, April 21, 1997 8:04 PM > > Tom > That list of 52 stocks that you had waiting for you this morning did > fairly well in a market that did what today's market did. TWENTY-FIVE > percent of the entire list either hit or equaled their 52 week high. Of the > six that graded out 95 or higher only one went down and it went from $47.50 > to $47.25 at close. All of the other five went up with four of the five > hitting new 52 week highs. Those hitting new highs were SEWY (2300), MWL > (213700), DS (3509000) and FULL (381800) - volume figures in paranthesis. > SEWY has close 7 out of the last 8 trading days at or equal to new 52 week > high. FULL has closed last 5 trading days in a row each being a news 52 > week high. How's that, coach? > Got to go get out my daily fax but just wanted to share that with you > before it got bedtime for ya! > James ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Michael A Langston Subject: re: [CANSLIM] Hot Shot Analysts - Hot Predictions! Date: 21 Apr 1997 23:01:42 -0400 > Today was another bloodbath for the networking group, still > falling, with three main names, USRX, COMS and ASND if I > remember right, all hitting new lows for the 12 months. and close on their heels: BAY, CSCC, CSCO, PAIR...no need to consider E and R, just look at G: COMPUTER-LOCAL NETWORKS 2 2 2 2 2 3 4 5 arf arf! mike ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: [CANSLIM] Techaholics Date: 22 Apr 1997 07:50:53 -0400 Welcome, fellow techaholics. You know who you are, you want to be fully invested, but just can't make the bridge into retail and apparel and shoe companies, no matter how good the technicals and chart look. You are tempted, but it just doesn't scratch your itch. OK, it's out, I'm now public, you know my hidden secret, I crave techs! Anyway, went to bed late, woke up after 4 hours so you get the benefit (?) of my insomnia. Too discouraged to look at charts last nite, more fun to play pinball. But got serious this morning, went thru James' top 5 plus 1, along with several others. Along the way, took a look at two mkt leaders, INTC and MSFT. Since chip mfr's were one of the only two tech groups in the top 50 as of Friday, wanted to examine the group anyway. And with MSFT doing so well, hard for me to understand a group RS of 3! So thought that group also deserved a close exam. And the fact that DS (damn, still don't believe I missed that one!) made it into James' top 5 gave me hope of finding something worthwhile there. First, a commercial plug - looks to me like, in addition to price and volume, the RS nr and line is being adjusted on a daily basis on DG Online. If correct and continued, a most worthwhile feature. Now for the 50 and 200DMA, not sure about a daily update on them. Old stocks - MLHR - already below support at 32.5 to 33, unless you get a rally pretty much from the opening bell, I would sell and wait to see it worth buying back later. U/d still rated at 2.3 however, which suggests there is support out there and the main problem is the recent rating cut by one BD. MSON - low EPS of 36, altho last two qtrs reports nice profit compared to year ago losses. No forecast for cur year however. Acc/dist of B, however timeliness of C and u/down ratio of 0.8 not encouraging. Spike up on Monday on very good vol of 431K (avg is 60,700). Vol overall erratic and low price (closed under 10) and lack of liquidity will preclude a lot of institutionals. Market - Both NYSE and NASDAQ currently oversold, in fact NASDAQ sitting after Monday close to a point where we could see a rally of upwards of 70 to 100 pts. Yeah, I said it, probably crazy and fantasizing, but what the heck, it's still a good dream even if it doesn't happen, and if it does, could be famous. NYSE not as oversold but could still see some relief here. Elec-semiconductor mfg - top seven stocks are Jabil (JBIL), ASE Test (ASTSF), Semtech (SMTC), Adv Micro (AMD), Micrel (MCRL), Plexus (PLXS) and Dallas Semi (DS). Group RS is 88, one of only two techs in top 50. The top four in this group all have RS of 99. All have a positive adv/dec ratio exceeding 1.0 and all but AMD have a timeliness of A or B. Several haven't reported earnings yet and are showing nice bases near highs (ASTSF, SMTC). Computer-software - Top six are Keane (kea), New Dimension (DDDDF), Manugistics (MANU), Compuware (CPWR), Tripos (TRPS) and Microsoft (MSFT). Except for MANU all have a/d over 1.0, and except for DDDDF all have timeliness of A or B. CPWR hasn't reported yet, and looks attractive altho it's up against a strong qtr. Have a great day. tom w Any opinions are strictly my own and not that of my employer. My comments are based on a variety of sources and are intended strictly to assist and inform. In no way am I suggesting a buy, sell, or hold decision based on my comments or observations. I always urge an investor to do his or her own homework, and be sure the risk of the market can be tolerated and any losses accepted gracefully. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Brenda" Subject: [CANSLIM] Indexes Date: 22 Apr 1997 07:54:31 -0500 DJ-20: Just about as bullish a graph as you could hope to see. Even a possilbe CANSLIM bullish shape. (Buy stocks in this index? Something is giving the index that shape and more than just a few of the stocks are in this rally) MID--X: Mid Caps, Sitting at bottom of a support line. Trend is definetely down. "Should" rally TODAY. If does not and closes below where it is today there is one last support level at about 243 down 5 from where it closed yesterday. Close below that and next support at 232. SP-500: Has rallied back up to overhead supply point. Trend is basically down but is at a turning point. In next day or two graph will take on either a bearish or bullish shape no matter what the market does. If heads back down from here it doesn't look like the new-old previous low will hold. COMPQX: Not very pretty. Definetely down shape. I would NEVER buy a stock whose graph looked like this no matter WHAT the facts were. Has held at just about last possible support level (1200 area). If breaks this next support level at 1145-below that possibly 1050. We need a spike in this graph TODAY. If this index does not hold TODAY I will not be buying any new stocks!!!! Not until definete up trend has once again been establish. (Strong statement for one who has been fully invested to this point) DJ-30: Could "almost" be considered bullish in shape with a healthy correction all but completed. On the upside now but stuck at an overhead supply point. To break through (IMHO) needs some help from other stocks and indexes (techs for ex). If does break even a "little" higher IMHO will probably test it's highs. To do this is going to have to have support. If breaks lower new-low around "should" hold. Summary: If I did not know anything about the FOMC, AG, WON, EG or any of the others or the economy but strictly on a techinical basis - I like graphs from LL to UR and going at a 45%(straight line). It appears these indexes have had sharper than 45% ups, that can not be sustained, have fallen back, could crash but appears they do not want to do that, will not resume the same shape up as have had before. Most stocks when you draw trend lines will tend to keep the same general degree slope up even if it is moved over a bar or two. It "appears" something is holding the indexes in check for some reason. Need to know the extraneous facts to deduce further. I would suspect a Pres. Election, War, Impeachment, something of that nature. Now knowing what I know - I think ONE single man has the entire stock market "in check". A series of interest rate hikes I think would crash this market like we have not seen in a long, long time and would make 1987 look like a cake walk. If that were to happen I think his career would be officially OVER. I think he would be the most unpopular man in certainly America if not the world. I think even he knows this. I am going to give him credit, something I do not usually do. If the market will not rally on it's on and "in his face" I do not see the FOMC raising rates ANY more this year. If his jawboning would almost apologize for what the market has done or at least say that he really doesn't see inflation or "would never expect to hear him say he made a mistake but to say for now he is going to chance it and hope he is right that inflation does not appear what it was when he raised rates last time, I think you would see a rally in all markets. If that happens, of course, he would then raise the rates causing the market to once again do what it is doing now. If you will check the last time he started raising rates the economy, numbers that effect inflation, etc were 3 times higher than they are now and almost 4 times higher. This is my opinion and I know others feel much differently. Earnings are good in the face of being told that they would not be good. Groups that should NOT be doing good are doing good. Stocks with huge earnings surprises are being met with ho-hum reactions. Small cheap stocks are getting a LOT of activity. Laggards are doing better than leaders. Read any of this in HTMMIS? It's there. Well, that it for MHO. Thanks for the nice words Tom. Picking stocks right now is the hardest I have EVER, EVER seen it. The base gets smaller and smaller and smaller. Stocks in the list now may not be there one week from now. Not a pretty picture. Hope situation improves but I think the market needs a dose of penicillin. It is sick. Let's hope it gets that medicine soon or it is going to the operating room. It is in intensive care now and the doctors are trying to decide what to do. James ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Brenda" Subject: [CANSLIM] Erroneous Reporting Date: 22 Apr 1997 08:47:51 -0500 As investors we have our hands full even when we are furnished the proper and correct information. What infuriates me is when we are constantly given bad, wrong, incorrect information and it continues and continues and continues and nothing is ever done when one particular agency, reporting firm, broadcaster continuously does it over and over again. Let's face it, if we own 500 shares of a stock and CNBC comes out with an announcement that they just reported earnings and they MISSED their number. Even if you KNOW that statement to be a complete falsehood, error, mistake, or whatever - if you hold knowing that in about 10 minutes your stock is going to be worth 20-40% less than it was. What can be done about that, if anything? This morning, right before the opening bell, Joe on CNBC annouces that APM has just reported and has missed their number by a penny. However, on the Zacks page recommended to us yesterday it is listed as the NUMBER ONE best earning surprise so far today at a 60% positive earning surprise. Both can not be right. Both "should not" be THAT wrong. If you only have one of the reports....... Even if you have both of the reports........ No, I do not own that stock. Made a lot of money with it in the past but all of that is immaterial. This situation just keeps on keeping on. Not long ago CNBC did hatchet job on both CIBR and MCAF being wrong on both. "They" may be the one right on APM but past history is not in their favor. What's your opinion? How would you like to own a stock where they do erroneous, 100% WRONG information and watch your stock plummett. It doesn't come back that fast even if the info was totally wrong. James ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Brenda" Subject: [CANSLIM] CNBC update on APM Date: 22 Apr 1997 09:22:02 -0500 Forty-five mintues after the market has opened good ole Joe comes on - APM down 3 1/2 at the moment. Just wanted to add a little, he says. Not an oops or an we made a mistake or an "We just aren't very good.". He states that if you do a couple of accounting moves here and there they actually beat the estimate. Beat it by 2 cents a share. Just wanted to add that. Back to you. Is that SAD? If you just say don't watch it then how can you responsibly say you are exercising some degree of diligence in managing your/others holdings? Is there NOTHING that can be done to, if not stop, at least cut down all the erroneous reporting on such a widespread and almost daily basis? What do you think? Is the Internet big enough to respond in such a way that CNBC exec's even listen? Or, just something, we as investors have to put up with? James Last post from me on this matter. You can all cheer now. Most that I mention this too are not to terribly concerned. I'll never understand that but it's just the facts. Just the facts Mamm. Wish CNBC could do that. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: David F. Cameron Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Techaholics Date: 22 Apr 1997 9:14:54 CDT > > Welcome, fellow techaholics. You know who you are, you want to be > fully invested, but just can't make the bridge into retail and > apparel and shoe companies, no matter how good the technicals and > chart look. You are tempted, but it just doesn't scratch your itch. > OK, it's out, I'm now public, you know my hidden secret, I crave > techs! Thanks, Tom, I'm laughing at this. I guess I semi-qualify. About 1/2 the stocks I buy are techs. About 3/4 are small stocks. > > Market - Both NYSE and NASDAQ currently oversold, in fact NASDAQ > sitting after Monday close to a point where we could see a rally of > upwards of 70 to 100 pts. Yeah, I said it, probably crazy and > fantasizing, but what the heck, it's still a good dream even if it > doesn't happen, and if it does, could be famous. NYSE not as > oversold but could still see some relief here. > That would be nice - give us some buying opportunities - but I agree with your earlier assessment that unfortunately it'll have to wait until at least after the next FOMC meeting. Dave Cameron (who soon will be sifting through intros) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: David F. Cameron Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Indexes Date: 22 Apr 1997 9:18:50 CDT James ranted thusly: > Now knowing what I know - I think ONE single man has the entire stock > market "in check". A series of interest rate hikes I think would crash this > market like we have not seen in a long, long time and would make 1987 look > like a cake walk. If that were to happen I think his career would be > officially OVER. I think he would be the most unpopular man in certainly > America if not the world. I think even he knows this. I am going to give > him credit, something I do not usually do. If the market will not rally on > it's on and "in his face" I do not see the FOMC raising rates ANY more this > year. Well, James, you never have been shy at sharing your opinion, have you ;-) Personally I think you are overstating the case. Greenspan is not as concerned with the market as with other factors; he had admitted so. If he raises rates - the market will probably go down - but I don't think it will crash (but as WON would say, we'd have to see the charts...) I don't agree with the function of the Federal Reserve; and I am on record as stating as much - but I think this is too strong. JMHO, Dave ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Jonathan Polito - Lucent ASCC Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Erroneous Reporting Date: 22 Apr 1997 10:28:17 -0400 This also highlights the view of many to trade into earnings. Currently I see much more downside risk than upside potential resulting from earnings announcements. There have been a host of companies that have blown away est. but were meant with either selling or little interest. Many other companies are meeting est. and getting punished. Still others are getting whipsawed back and forth. Look at G (Gillette) - runs way up on earnings anticipation, falls back down on announcement, now is running back up again. Go figure. (probably it is a result of the "funds" going after the consumer sector.) Today it looks like MCAF is bouncing back, but it may be short lived. Also, I've been reading recently about program trading from some pros. It is remarkable the effect this has (in the short term trend) and if an individual were doing this, they would be nailed for manipulation. - Jonathan. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Michael A Langston Subject: re: [CANSLIM] Erroneous Reporting Date: 22 Apr 1997 10:39:33 -0400 > Let's face it, if we own 500 shares of a stock and CNBC comes out > with an announcement that they just reported earnings and they > MISSED their number. Even if you KNOW that statement to be a > complete falsehood, error, mistake, or whatever - if you hold > knowing that in about 10 minutes your stock is going to be worth > 20-40% less than it was. i haven't really noticed the problem too much james -- the last time it happened to me was last fall, i was long MCAF at the time, and they blew out estimates to the upside -- but sue herrera reported that they missed badly (turns out she was using an old estimate, before they did a 3-2) -- investors bought up MCAF anyway, they seemed better able to do arithmetic than sue (but hey, i like sue... and brenda...and terry...but i digress!) -- if CNBC is having the sort of effect you describe, maybe it's just another sign that this market is skittish here > Forty-five mintues after the market has opened good ole Joe comes > on - APM down 3 1/2 at the moment. Just wanted to add a little, > he says. Not an oops or an we made a mistake or an "We just aren't > very good.". He states that if you do a couple of accounting moves > here and there they actually beat the estimate. Beat it by 2 cents > a share. Just wanted to add that. Back to you. Is that SAD? i think that's pretty common -- one-time charges and such often make it extremely hard to point to one number as "it" -- and even w/o creative accounting, it depends on who's estimate you use...zacks, first call, concensus, etc > Last post from me on this matter. You can all cheer now. hurry! (just kidding) > Most that I mention this too are not to terribly concerned. I'll > never understand that but it's just the facts. Just the facts > Mamm. Wish CNBC could do that. maybe your listeners aren't terribly concerned because you seem (to me at least) to be so emotional about it? -- anyway, i think you have identified a potential problem, maybe CNBC should review the way they announce this stuff mike ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Brenda" Subject: [CANSLIM] More Ranting? Date: 22 Apr 1997 09:43:15 -0500 David, Would have replied to you individually but since "I ranted" will share with the group. What do you think when hordes of cabinet members desert the ship, give up probably best paying job they have ever had in their lives, give up power, prestige, give up 4 more years of "the easy life". Not one or two but HORDES. What do you think when you look at the cabinet and it is by no stretch of the imagination a Who's Who. In fact, it is almost completely unknowns, as many generally Democrat papers reported. Now, one of these unknowns in the best job he has ever had not only leaves but writes a book. OK. So what's new. Everybody is writing a book. What a deluge of books are not only being written and published but bought. And, just because it is published it is "suppossed to" have some degree of truth to it? Guess one has to figure this out on each book. Now, to the point - Think Reich is stupid. How about uninformed? How about doesn't have a clue? How about just plain misinformed? Well, what? Just out to make a dime? Maybe he really is out in outer space and as Mr. Secretary did not know what he was doing. Maybe, he really did not have those conversations with Mr. Greenspan. Maybe he is 100% wrong. Maybe he was asked to leave because he was so stupid and on the wrong track. Just one more who had to get out of the best paying job they ever had in their life. I say, maybe, just maybe one more who left on principle. One more who left...... Oh well, there I go ranting again. Sorry. James ---------- > From: David F. Cameron > To: canslim@mail.xmission.com > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Indexes > Date: Tuesday, April 22, 1997 9:18 AM > > James ranted thusly: > > > Now knowing what I know - I think ONE single man has the entire stock > > market "in check". > > Well, James, you never have been shy at sharing your opinion, have you ;-) > > Personally I think you are overstating the case. Greenspan is not as > concerned with the market as with other factors; he had admitted so. > If he raises rates - the market will probably go down - but I don't > think it will crash (but as WON would say, we'd have to see the > charts...) I don't agree with the function of the Federal Reserve; > and I am on record as stating as much - but I think this is too strong. > > He also said that there is no way he could have an effect on something as large as the market. Guess it's just as easy to believe that one as to believe him when he says he is not as concerned with the martket as other factors. Reich doesn't see these other factors that Mr. G sees so clearly. In fact, Reich thinks he should not only not be raising rates but thinks he should be LOWERING them. Hate to agree with Reich but I do. . ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Zoran Mitrovski Subject: [CANSLIM] 45 deg, LL and UR Date: 22 Apr 1997 10:52:27 -0400 (EDT) James wrote: > I like > graphs from LL to UR and going at a 45%(straight line). It appears these > indexes have had sharper than 45% ups, that can not be sustained, have > fallen back, could crash but appears they do not want to do that, will not > resume the same shape up as have had before. James, what is the meaning of "45%" above? I assume it is a 45 deg slope, and if that is the case, then ANY sloping straight line can be made to have a 45 deg slope by simply compressing and/or expanding one or both of the coordinates (price or time). It could be arranged to have ANY slope you could possibly wish for. Having said this I had hard time understanding the meaning of "sharper than 45%". Also, how do you define "lower-left" and "upper-right"? By simply shifting and scaling the observed price-time window, I don't find any difficulties whatsoever in placing price-time points at any grid point of the observed window (graph). What is LL on one graph can be easily made to be UR on another and vice versa. Can you please explain this a bit more? Cheers, Zoran http://www.seas.rochester.edu:8080/ee/users/zmitrov/home.html ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Michael A Langston Subject: re: [CANSLIM] 45 deg, LL and UR Date: 22 Apr 1997 11:03:51 -0400 > ...ANY sloping straight line can be made to have a 45 deg > slope by simply compressing and/or expanding one or both of > the coordinates (price or time). It could be arranged to > have ANY slope ANY slope zoran? -- w/ only compression and expansion? i think you know where i'm going w/ this, heh heh heh mike ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Brenda" Subject: [CANSLIM] LL to UR graphs Date: 22 Apr 1997 10:10:06 -0500 ---------- > From: Zoran Mitrovski > To: canslim@mail.xmission.com > Cc: Zoran Mitrovski > Subject: [CANSLIM] 45 deg, LL and UR > Date: Tuesday, April 22, 1997 9:52 AM > > > James wrote: > > I like graphs from LL to UR and going at a 45%(straight line). allen back, could crash but appears they do not want to do that, will not resume the same shape up as have had before. > > James, what is the meaning of "45%" above? ANY sloping straight line can be made to have a 45 deg slope by simply compressing and/or expanding one or both of the coordinates (price or time). It could be arranged to have ANY slope you > could possibly wish for. Having said this I had hard time understanding > the meaning of "sharper than 45%". > > Also, how do you define "lower-left" and "upper-right"? By simply > shifting and scaling the observed price-time window, I don't find any > difficulties whatsoever in placing price-time points at any grid point > of the observed window (graph). What is LL on one graph can be easily > made to be UR on another and vice versa. > > Can you please explain this a bit more? > > Cheers, > Zoran > http://www.seas.rochester.edu:8080/ee/users/zmitrov/home.html > OK. I'll try. If you will use a standard log scale on a graph. Nothing special just a standard log. The graph will fall into place where it should. Most graphs do NOT go LL to UR. Of course, I guess, by manipulating first this and then that you might be able to make some graphs do that. Getting harder and harder to do that. Tell me how you make that happen with...... CAMP for example. My favorite would be a stock when you pull it up in normal log form starts at the bottom left of your screen which almost all will do, then moves upward and headed toward to top right of your screen with very few dips or volatility. That forms about a 45% angle. 90% angle would be straight up along the left edge of your screen. Some stocks go in a straight line across as the consolidate. Hope this helps some. Not many of these stocks out there right now. James ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Zoran Mitrovski Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] 45 deg, LL and UR Date: 22 Apr 1997 11:26:20 -0400 (EDT) mike wrote: > > ...ANY sloping straight line can be made to have a 45 deg > > slope by simply compressing and/or expanding one or both of > > the coordinates (price or time). It could be arranged to > > have ANY slope > > ANY slope zoran? -- w/ only compression and expansion? > > i think you know where i'm going w/ this, heh heh heh I know and I knew it while I was writing it. I also expected the professor to be the one that jumps my neck for it. I intend to revise my contribution to address the much honored concerns of the expert referee. ;^) "ANY slope" should be replaced by "ANY slope except 0 deg and multiples of 90 deg". I hope that the referee would understand the circumstances under which the author found appropriate to abandon scientific rigor in his statements, especially given the approximations of the sort "90% angle would be straight up along the left edge of your screen" (sorry James, gotta defend myself from the professor). ;^) Cheers, Zoran http://www.seas.rochester.edu:8080/ee/users/zmitrov/home.html ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Michael A Langston Subject: re: [CANSLIM] 45 deg, LL and UR Date: 22 Apr 1997 11:42:26 -0400 > I know and I knew it while I was writing it. aha, i suspected as much :) > I also expected the professor to be the one that jumps my > neck for it. hey, tom's bills himself as "professor" -- i'm just a menial university employee...who happens to like to jump on necks >:-> > "ANY slope" should be replaced by "ANY slope except 0 deg and > multiples of 90 deg". and negative slopes? -- how do compression and expansion w/o inversion make them positive? (that is, how do you turn CSCC into DELL?) > I hope that the referee would understand the circumstances not a snowball's chance in hell :) :) mike ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Zoran Mitrovski Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] LL to UR graphs Date: 22 Apr 1997 12:15:40 -0400 (EDT) James wrote: > OK. I'll try. If you will use a standard log scale on a graph. Nothing > special just a standard log. The graph will fall into place where it > should. Most graphs do NOT go LL to UR. Of course, I guess, by manipulating > first this and then that you might be able to make some graphs do that. By scaling the coordinates: ANY up-sloped graph can be made to have ANY up-slope value between 0+ and 90- deg. ANY down-sloped graph can be made to have ANY down-slope value between 0+ and 90- deg. (mike, how's this? ;^)) It is not a question of how often sloped graphs occur. When they DO occur, their slope can be arbitrarily changed by compressing or expanding the coordinates. Another note on your usage of log graphs. If a graph is a straight sloped line in log10 graph, it will not be a straight sloped line in any other graph that uses a different based logX (where X <> 10). > Getting harder and harder to do that. Tell me how you make that happen > with...... CAMP for example. I guess you'll have to bring the price data on a floppy and come here to plug it in my MATLAB for me to be able to show you the magical transformations I can produce. ;^) > My favorite would be a stock when you pull it up in normal log form starts > at the bottom left of your screen which almost all will do, then moves > upward and headed toward to top right of your screen with very few dips or > volatility. But what if you make your screen smaller? Wouldn't the price have hit the upper right corner right there? Or what if you expanded your window? Wouldn't the price be just starting from the lower left corner then? > That forms about a 45% angle. 90% angle would be straight up > along the left edge of your screen. I'm sure you meant a little less than 90% (say 89%). Well, I can make that same graph look like a lazy snail laying straight down along the bottom of your screen at 1% angle. > Some stocks go in a straight line > across as the consolidate. Hope this helps some. Not many of these stocks > out there right now. James, I admit that I expected the answers you gave me and I wasn't actually asking because of lack of understanding. I merely wanted to check your reasoning behind these concepts which you proved to be on a slightly shaky grounds. An introductory reading in Calculus or Function Analysis should provide you the tools to see the errors you make by giving preferential significance to the predetermined coordinate settings of your software or chart service. I hope you will not see this as another 'attack' but as a helping attempt from someone who perhaps sees more than you do at this point. Cheers, Zoran http://www.seas.rochester.edu:8080/ee/users/zmitrov/home.html ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Zoran Mitrovski Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] 45 deg, LL and UR Date: 22 Apr 1997 12:27:46 -0400 (EDT) mike wrote: > > I also expected the professor to be the one that jumps my > > neck for it. > > hey, tom's bills himself as "professor" -- i'm just a menial > university employee...who happens to like to jump on necks >:-> 'Professor' is not 'The Pope'. There could be two even more of them at the same time. ;^) > > "ANY slope" should be replaced by "ANY slope except 0 deg and > > multiples of 90 deg". > > and negative slopes? -- how do compression and expansion > w/o inversion make them positive? (that is, how do you > turn CSCC into DELL?) mike, I'm not used to expressing mathematical relationships and equations in English. If I could somehow use my Equations Editor here I would be happy to apply the rigor the lack of which causes my neck to go blue right now. Uugh...losen the grip will ya? ;^) > > I hope that the referee would understand the circumstances > > not a snowball's chance in hell :) :) Big deal. I'll just have to submit my paper to a more friendly set of referees, I guess. ;^) Cheers, Zoran http://www.seas.rochester.edu:8080/ee/users/zmitrov/home.html ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Brenda" Subject: [CANSLIM] Touche! Date: 22 Apr 1997 11:38:43 -0500 Some points made and well received. As to the schooling me due to my lack of certain knowledge - Math was my major, Chemistry my minor. Analytical Calculus was a cakewalk. Think I missed one problem for the course. To take CAMP and make it go from LL to UR would be ludicrous. Sure, maybe some have time when the market is in it's current mode, but in it's current mode is when I find I have the most work to do. When it's climbing and most seem to be working the hardest is when I work the least. Doing homework and groundwork in times like these make other times easy. Cheers!---------- > From: Zoran Mitrovski > To: canslim@mail.xmission.com > Cc: Zoran Mitrovski > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] LL to UR graphs > Date: Tuesday, April 22, 1997 11:15 AM > > >By scaling the coordinates: > > ANY up-sloped graph can be made to have > ANY up-slope value between 0+ and 90- deg. > > ANY down-sloped graph can be made to have > ANY down-slope value between 0+ and 90- deg. > check your reasoning behind these concepts which you proved to be > on a slightly shaky grounds. An introductory reading in Calculus or > Function Analysis should provide you the tools to see the errors you > make by giving preferential significance to the predetermined > coordinate settings of your software or chart service. Knock yourself out. Have fun! Experiment! Do whatever. As for me I plan to continue doing what I have been doing and to keep coming up with new stocks, new buys and continue to have stocks that are hitting new all time and 52 week highs even in this market. Fifteen out of my base of 50 did so last night. How many will do it today? About the same number. Have a good day. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Michael A Langston Subject: re: [CANSLIM] LL to UR graphs Date: 22 Apr 1997 12:47:40 -0400 > By scaling the coordinates: > ANY up-sloped graph can be made to have > ANY up-slope value between 0+ and 90- deg. > ANY down-sloped graph can be made to have > ANY down-slope value between 0+ and 90- deg. > (mike, how's this? ;^)) dang good job zoran (it took long enuf :)) > mike, I'm not used to expressing mathematical relationships and > equations in English. yea, sure, uh huh, we've seen how bad your english is -- you had no trouble "damning me w/ faint praise" the other day ;) > my neck to go blue right now. Uugh...losen the grip will ya? ;^) well ok, let me see if i can loosen that bowline a bit > I'll just have to submit my paper to a more friendly set > of referees, I guess. ;^) keep going down your list of periodicals, somebody'll probably print it -- just look what passes for web publishing! mike ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Zoran Mitrovski Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Touche! Date: 22 Apr 1997 13:47:10 -0400 (EDT) James wrote: > Some points made and well received. There was only one really. I am happy that you received it well although what follows below doesn't seem to support that statement. > As to the schooling me due to my lack > of certain knowledge - Math was my major, Chemistry my minor. Analytical > Calculus was a cakewalk. Think I missed one problem for the course. To take > CAMP and make it go from LL to UR would be ludicrous. Sure, maybe some have > time when the market is in it's current mode, but in it's current mode is > when I find I have the most work to do. I never claimed that I can make ANY stock go from the LL to UR of your screen. Chill down please and read what people write to you. > >By scaling the coordinates: > > > > ANY up-sloped graph can be made to have > > ANY up-slope value between 0+ and 90- deg. > > > > ANY down-sloped graph can be made to have > > ANY down-slope value between 0+ and 90- deg. [...] > > check your reasoning behind these concepts which you proved to be > > on a slightly shaky grounds. An introductory reading in Calculus or > > Function Analysis should provide you the tools to see the errors you > > make by giving preferential significance to the predetermined > > coordinate settings of your software or chart service. > > Knock yourself out. Have fun! Experiment! Do whatever. As for me I plan to > continue doing what I have been doing and to keep coming up with new > stocks, new buys and continue to have stocks that are hitting new all time > and 52 week highs even in this market. Fifteen out of my base of 50 did so > last night. How many will do it today? About the same number. Have a good > day. Congratulations on your success. Another piece of 'schooling' if you don't mind: If people don't publicly brag about their trading successes in a regular manner, that doesn't mean that they are actually not successfull, or that they don't do real trading better than you do. You seem to shut your eyes, ears and mind in preparation for an incoming attack whenever someone questions your beliefs or methods. Why so jumpy? Why don't you accept any other input apart from admiration or pats on your back? Cheers, Zoran http://www.seas.rochester.edu:8080/ee/users/zmitrov/home.html ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: vrb4@chrysler.com Subject: [CANSLIM] A Little Amusement Date: 22 Apr 1997 13:37:08 -0400 I came across this in another forum that I was in. In light of the last couple of weeks, I got a chuckle out of it. I hope you see it the same way. Q: How many internet mail list subscribers does it take to change a light bulb? A: 1,331: 1 to change the light bulb and to post to the mail list that the light bulb has been changed 14 to share similar experiences of changing light bulbs and how the light bulb could have been changed differently. 7 to caution about the dangers of changing light bulbs. 27 to point out spelling/grammar errors in posts about changing light bulbs. 53 to flame the spell checkers 156 to write to the list administrator complaining about the light bulb discussion and its inappropriateness to this mail list. 41 to correct spelling in the spelling/grammar flames. 109 to post that this list is not about light bulbs and to please take this email exchange to alt.lite.bulb 203 to demand that cross posting to alt.grammar, alt.spelling and alt.punctuation about changing light bulbs be stopped. 111 to defend the posting to this list saying that we are all use light bulbs and therefore the posts **are** relevant to this mail list. 306 to debate which method of changing light bulbs is superior, where to buy the best light bulbs, what brand of light bulbs work best for this technique, and what brands are faulty. 27 to post URLs where one can see examples of different light bulbs 14 to post that the URLs were posted incorrectly, and to post corrected URLs. 3 to post about links they found from the URLs that are relevant to this list which makes light bulbs relevant to this list. 33 to concatenate all posts to date, then quote them including all headers and footers, and then add "Me Too." 12 to post to the list that they are unsubscribing because they cannot handle the light bulb controversy. 19 to quote the "Me Too's" to say, "Me Three." 4 to suggest that posters request the light bulb FAQ. 1 to propose new alt.change.lite.bulb newsgroup. 47 to say this is just what alt.physic.cold_fusion was meant for, leave it here. 143 votes for alt.lite.bulb. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Brian Nash Subject: [CANSLIM] Michael Metz: Anti-CANSLIM archangel or Contrarian indicator? Date: 22 Apr 1997 13:00:38 -0700 Came across the following today. Probably everyone here knows Metz has been a bear since 1994. From an unrelated article a few weeks ago, he has his clients in aluminum, nickel and lead producers. "I think we're in a contra-trend rally and believe the market will peak today," said Michael Metz, chief investment strategist at Oppenheimer & Co. Inc. Oppenheimer's Metz is not sanguine regarding the prospects for consumer nondurable issues, today's action notwithstanding. "I think there will be a real shift to cyclical names on the basis of worldwide expansion rather than domestic expansion," he said. "I think the economy's still okay, but I think the real theme is worldwide growth, and this is bullish for the commodity producers. "I feel technology is in the middle stages of a bear market and I see considerable downside before it turns," Metz condinued. "Here, the problem is extraordinary overvaluation combined with pressure on profit margins. My opinion on financial stocks is that they've peaked, and are not the place to be over the next few quarters." ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Michael A Langston Subject: re: [CANSLIM] Michael Metz: Anti-CANSLIM archangel or Contrarian indicator? Date: 22 Apr 1997 16:33:21 -0400 > "I think we're in a contra-trend rally and believe the market will peak i don't know about a peak brian, but internals seem pretty weird -- dow up over 170, nasdaq up less than 9, russell 2k and the utes flat -- and the nasdaq a/d line is negative, all in all an uneven rally at best -- have been outa pocket this afternoon, have no idea what sparked the dow's move........ mike ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: OWENTIME@delphi.com Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Michael Metz: Anti-CANSLIM archangel or Contrarian Date: 22 Apr 1997 19:31:06 -0400 (EDT) Re: Metz Interesting to have international market footings with a strong dollar as it is now, unless it changes. Techs. may just need to be given a rest, while underpinning indices diverge, until deep spikes finally occur, maybe June will be mop up time for techs. Opinions? ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: pwahl@postoffice.worldnet.att.net Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Michael Metz: Anti-CANSLIM archangel or Contraria Date: 22 Apr 1997 17:39:06 -0800 > From: Brian Nash > Came across the following today. Probably everyone here knows Metz has > been a bear since 1994. From an unrelated article a few weeks ago, he > has his clients in aluminum, nickel and lead producers. Yup, and him and others like him is exactly why I try to never ever listen to any market prognosticators. There are a hundred opinions out there, and no one seems to know, or if they do, it isn't clear until a year later anyway if they were right. The O'Neil comments posted here this week are exactly the right way to approach the market: listen to what it is telling you. > "I feel technology is in the middle stages of a bear market and I see > considerable downside before it turns," Metz condinued. "Here, the > problem is extraordinary overvaluation combined with pressure on profit > margins. My opinion on financial stocks is that they've peaked, and are On this I agree with him. The p/e of every software stock I looked at last fall seemed to be about 120. Changing the subject a bit -- CNBC reported that Bill Gates is now worth $30,000,000,000. See, all you have to do is buy and hold ;) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] 45 deg, LL and UR Date: 22 Apr 1997 21:11:18 -0400 Actually, the brokers at my last firm named me "The Professor", even have a cartoon sketch one drew somewheres, cuz I always seemed to know the answer or where to find it, knew something about everything, consequence of having lived I guess (if they only knew how often I just knew a tad more than them!!) BTW, Mike, go for the throat, it's faster and requires less effort. tom w ---------- > From: Zoran Mitrovski > To: canslim@mail.xmission.com > Cc: Zoran Mitrovski > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] 45 deg, LL and UR > Date: Tuesday, April 22, 1997 12:27 PM > > > hey, tom's bills himself as "professor" -- i'm just a menial > > university employee...who happens to like to jump on necks >:-> ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] CNBC update on APM Date: 22 Apr 1997 21:15:32 -0400 Historically, there has been no accountability for media commentators or "analysts" (I think most of whom are like weather reporters who rarely have studied meteorology, usually just have a media degree). I recall some years back, someone was going to set up a system to track media (short for mediocre) commentators and analysts, but disappeared from the scene within a year or so. Don't know if Big (media) Brother bot him off, wiped him out, or if he perished from lack of interest. tom w ---------- > From: Brenda > To: canslim > Subject: [CANSLIM] CNBC update on APM > Date: Tuesday, April 22, 1997 10:22 AM > > Forty-five mintues after the market has opened good ole Joe comes on - APM > down 3 1/2 at the moment. Just wanted to add a little, he says. Not an oops > or an we made a mistake or an "We just aren't very good.". He states that > if you do a couple of accounting moves here and there they actually beat > the estimate. Beat it by 2 cents a share. Just wanted to add that. Back to > you. > holdings? Is there NOTHING that can be done to, if not stop, at least cut > down all the erroneous reporting on such a widespread and almost daily ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Indexes Date: 22 Apr 1997 21:27:39 -0400 In a nutshell: This is a narrow, big cap rally with no depth or breadth so far. That needs to change. Greenspan doesn't manipulate the market, the media does using pieces of his words, read his entire speech next time and compare it to what the media reports. I see ample grounds for a 25 BP hike in May and fully expect it even if the bond traders don't. I still see more than a 50% probability of that hike being 50BP, but, if only 25bp then an Aug hike remains possible of a further 25bp. There is evidence of inflation, if it matters I can go thru a boring list of reports and nrs as proof. So far, the most important nrs aren't seriously inflationary, nor are they out of control. That's the way Greenspan wants to keep it. How's that Mike? Laconic enough? tom w ---------- > From: Brenda > To: canslim > Subject: [CANSLIM] Indexes > Date: Tuesday, April 22, 1997 8:54 AM > > DJ-20: Just about as bullish a graph > MID--X: Mid Caps, Sitting at bottom of a support line. > SP-500: Has rallied back up to overhead supply point. > COMPQX: Not very pretty. > DJ-30: Could "almost" be considered bullish > Summary: If I did not know anything about the FOMC, AG, WON, EG or any of > the others or the economy but strictly on a techinical basis - I like > graphs from LL to UR > Now knowing what I know - I think ONE single man has the entire stock > market "in check". A series of interest rate hikes I think would crash this > it's on and "in his face" I do not see the FOMC raising rates ANY more this ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] LL to UR graphs Date: 22 Apr 1997 21:40:02 -0400 I guess I must have missed the entire point in this discussion. Silly me, all along I have meant that a chart is LLUR when I am looking at a 12 month chart produced from some standard source, say DG Online, and not having been manipulated and played with by me or others. Particularly coming on the heels of a discussion on media (airhead) commentators and their style of weasling around their errors in classic Garzarelli style, what's the point served in saying number crunchers can make the nrs mean whatever preconceived notion they want to support? Come on, guys, isn't there anything better to talk about today? I mean, after all, the networking group crashed and burned for the second day, with several more new lows (that is, let me be specific, new lows for the past twelve consecutive calendar months, OK). But then the group reversed, with most actually up for the day even tho NASDAQ wasn't strong. USRX had something like a 12% swing today, and I am halfway thru my email from CANSLIM and haven't heard a word about stocks or the market. What about the second greatest point gain in a day in the history of the market? And the greatest since that infamous year 1987? How about NASDAQ breeching 1200, but barely recovering? Am I the only one not learning from a discussion on manipulating a chart parameters? Personally, I prefer a 10 base log chart such as O'neill used in the NSMI book, but unfortunately DG is linear, so I learn to live with it. tom w ---------- > From: Zoran Mitrovski > To: canslim@mail.xmission.com > Cc: Zoran Mitrovski > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] LL to UR graphs > Date: Tuesday, April 22, 1997 12:15 PM > James wrote: > > > OK. I'll try. If you will use a standard log scale on a graph. Nothing ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Michael Metz: Anti-CANSLIM archangel or Contrarian indicator? Date: 22 Apr 1997 21:51:29 -0400 Biggest single reason for the rally was a stronger than expected Treasury auction of 2 year notes, causing a rally there (partially short covering so don't trust it) along with news from both Japan and Germany which sent the dollar soaring. While the NASDAQ gain looked puny, it was still a reversal in the face of a lot of selling pressure. Can it hold? I have my doubts, but do like the way that MSFT is trying to turn this tech sector around, now with some help from INTC as well. Still, as it has been for a year, remains a big cap mkt. tom w ---------- > From: Michael A Langston > To: canslim@mail.xmission.com > Subject: re: [CANSLIM] Michael Metz: Anti-CANSLIM archangel or Contrarian indicator? > Date: Tuesday, April 22, 1997 4:33 PM > > rally at best -- have been outa pocket this afternoon, have no idea > what sparked the dow's move........ > > mike ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Michael Metz: Anti-CANSLIM archangel or Contraria Date: 22 Apr 1997 21:47:00 -0400 Actually, some of the aluminum stocks haven't looked bad during this correction. Ironic that he sees techs so "overvalued" when this correction has knocked many down to trailing PEs in the 20s (or even less) and projected PEs (even with slowing growth) even lower, thus putting them in the S&P category. Last fall software stock PEs may have been that high, take another look now, I just did this weekend and this AM. tom w ---------- > From: pwahl@postoffice.worldnet.att.net > To: canslim@mail.xmission.com > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Michael Metz: Anti-CANSLIM archangel or Contraria > Date: Tuesday, April 22, 1997 9:39 PM > > > From: Brian Nash > > > Came across the following today. Probably everyone here knows Metz has > > been a bear since 1994. From an unrelated article a few weeks ago, he > > has his clients in aluminum, nickel and lead producers. > > > "I feel technology is in the middle stages of a bear market and I see > > problem is extraordinary overvaluation combined with pressure on profit > > margins. My opinion on financial stocks is that they've peaked, and are > > On this I agree with him. The p/e of every software stock I looked > at last fall seemed to be about 120. > ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: [CANSLIM] Lurker mode Date: 22 Apr 1997 22:42:27 -0400 I'm in lurker mode for awhile. If you have questions on market conditions or factors influencing same, send them to me privately at stkguru@netside.net. When this mkt heats up, and it will IMHO, I'll get back to posting original material and reviews. tom w Any opinions are strictly my own and not that of my employer. My comments are based on a variety of sources and are intended strictly to assist and inform. In no way am I suggesting a buy, sell, or hold decision based on my comments or observations. I always urge an investor to do his or her own homework, and be sure the risk of the market can be tolerated and any losses accepted gracefully. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Craig A. Griffin" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] LL to UR graphs Date: 22 Apr 1997 23:11:58 -0400 Tom, At 09:40 PM 4/22/97 -0400, you wrote: >I guess I must have missed the entire point in this discussion. >Come on, guys, isn't there anything better to talk about today? I agree that the group is off track a bit. Haven't had much time to post lately. But I have been fascinated by MSFT and the lack of comments from this group. Here is a Leader with great earnings, gapping up, huge volume 2 days in a row, CANSLIM for years (a bit large, but nevermind). Here is a stock where you can buy all you want without affecting the price. You could put 50% of your portfolio in it based on Friday's action in a decent market and sleep well at night. And nobody on the list says "boo". Even without a decent market, is this just the stock to swim against the tide? I don't know, but the group is not pulling together to figure it out. And besides, the big caps have been where the action is. Take a look at the airlines the last few weeks, DAL, U, UAL. Haven't heard much talk about the way this group is Leading. And how about that GE today? ... Yeah boy (Southern term)! I have been hitting delete on a lot of msgs lately with a brief skim. Too busy to focus on semantics and personalities. And how about that market, trying to get below 1200, but just can't seem to do it (was down there today, but couldn't hold)? And how 'bout those 406 New Lows on the NASDAQ today? Will another test or two of the 1200 level do the trick or was today the last try With the S&P500 up, what was it, almost 2%? How many markets are there? Are there 4 separate worlds operating in the US Equity markets now: NASDAQ/Tech, MidCap, LargeCap, SmallCap? Heck, S&P500 is still UP for the year (4%+). Anybody read anything interesting in IBD today? Regards, Craig PS. Not CANSLIM but ... I've been installing Win 95 (and all my apps) to a new machine (yea!), so have been mostly lurking lately. The difference in speed between P166,32meg,SCSI,4meg video and 486-66,20 meg,IDE,2meg video is night and day. Should have spent the money 2 years ago. Took a look at DG Online. So far not sure whether I would prefer it or DG's on paper. Nice to have Win95 so I could finally take a look. Sure would be nice to have scan capabilities... ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Brenda" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Lurker mode Date: 22 Apr 1997 22:18:27 -0500 "Ditto" James ---------- > From: Tom Worley > To: CANSLIM > Subject: [CANSLIM] Lurker mode > Date: Tuesday, April 22, 1997 9:42 PM > > I'm in lurker mode for awhile. If you have questions on market > conditions or factors influencing same, send them to me privately > at stkguru@netside.net. When this mkt heats up, and it will IMHO, > I'll get back to posting original material and reviews. > > tom w > > Any opinions are strictly my own and not that of my employer. > My comments are based on a variety of sources and are intended > strictly to assist and inform. In no way am I suggesting a buy, > sell, or hold decision based on my comments or observations. > I always urge an investor to do his or her own homework, and > be sure the risk of the market can be tolerated and any losses > accepted gracefully. > ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Brenda" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Lurker mode Date: 22 Apr 1997 22:18:27 -0500 "Ditto" James ---------- > From: Tom Worley > To: CANSLIM > Subject: [CANSLIM] Lurker mode > Date: Tuesday, April 22, 1997 9:42 PM > > I'm in lurker mode for awhile. If you have questions on market > conditions or factors influencing same, send them to me privately > at stkguru@netside.net. When this mkt heats up, and it will IMHO, > I'll get back to posting original material and reviews. > > tom w > > Any opinions are strictly my own and not that of my employer. > My comments are based on a variety of sources and are intended > strictly to assist and inform. In no way am I suggesting a buy, > sell, or hold decision based on my comments or observations. > I always urge an investor to do his or her own homework, and > be sure the risk of the market can be tolerated and any losses > accepted gracefully. > ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Michael A Langston Subject: re: [CANSLIM] Indexes Date: 22 Apr 1997 23:28:03 -0400 > I still see more than a 50% probability of that hike being 50BP i just don't see that being priced into the market...at all... if it should happen, it might be only *two* steps and a stumble > How's that Mike? Laconic enough? much better tom! -- now i leave it to you to work on james, craig and zoran :) (just kidding, i say yak it up folks if you like, get it out of your systems now, when/if HGS return to favor it'll be time to get down to serious bidness, til then my r-t quotes are turned off) mike ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] LL to UR graphs Date: 22 Apr 1997 23:13:05 -0400 Beg to disagree, I've posted several original reviews on MSFT and related groups, just got no response or reaction, including tonight. Been noticing the airlines, despite the recent re-imposition of the $10 tax, doesn't seem to have slowed them. thought I was the only one, and I don't trust the group, so not worth commenting. Big caps, cyclicals rule the marketplace. I prefer the DG Online, paper version doesn't have a scanning version either, and am hopeful someone will come up with a technique for screening even if WON doesn't provide it. tom w ---------- > From: Craig A. Griffin > To: canslim@mail.xmission.com > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] LL to UR graphs > Date: Tuesday, April 22, 1997 11:11 PM > > Tom, > > lately. But I have been fascinated by MSFT and the lack of comments from > this group. Here is a Leader with great earnings, gapping up, huge volume 2 > and sleep well at night. And nobody on the list says "boo". Even without a > > airlines the last few weeks, DAL, U, UAL. Haven't heard much talk about the > way this group is Leading. > > And how about that GE today? ... > > And how about that market, trying to get below 1200, but just can't seem to > do it (was down there today, but couldn't hold)? And how 'bout those 406 > New Lows on the NASDAQ today? Will another test or two of the 1200 level do > > Took a look at DG Online. So far not sure whether I would prefer it or DG's > on paper. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Michael A Langston Subject: [CANSLIM] MSFT (was re: LL to UR graphs) Date: 22 Apr 1997 23:41:02 -0400 > I have been fascinated by MSFT and the lack of comments from this > group... but the group is not pulling together to figure it out. just a coupla thoughts craig -- this is one woodward terms a "mattress stuffer" -- buy on weakness (like last july) and forget about canslim -- also, i for one figure i already own enuf of it in retirement accounts, am not especially interested in playing it otherwise (particularly when i'd be fighting both the fed and the tape -- marty z would be proud :> ) > Are there 4 separate worlds operating in the US Equity markets now... it's certainly weird all right, to my mind more evidence of an inflection point, risk remains high, etc etc etc mike ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Indexes Date: 22 Apr 1997 23:27:07 -0400 One of my biggest concerns right now is that the bond mkt is not only not adjusting for an upcoming rate hike (be it 25 or 50 BP), it is undoing (like today) what adjustment was already made for the past 25 BP hike. tom w ---------- > From: Michael A Langston > To: canslim@mail.xmission.com > Subject: re: [CANSLIM] Indexes > Date: Tuesday, April 22, 1997 11:28 PM > > > I still see more than a 50% probability of that hike being 50BP > > i just don't see that being priced into the market...at all... ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: David F. Cameron Subject: [CANSLIM] Caveat on front page of IBD Date: 23 Apr 1997 9:09:36 CDT I'm skimming IBD right now and noticed that on the front page is a paragraph right after mentioning the Dow rise that says "Caveat: Sometimes institutional investors try to run up the Dow... Yesterdays' move was not that broad..." First, I'm impressed they did this caveat. Second, does anyone know if this "running up the Dow" happens from time to time? Dave Cameron ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Peter Christiansen Subject: [CANSLIM] A New Uptrend Has Begun?? Date: 23 Apr 1997 21:10:47 GMT+7 Well, yesterday the DOW and S&P 500 both closed up more than 1% on 26% more volume than the previous day. This comes on the seventh day of the attempted rally. According to Mr. O'Neil's writings, the market is now in an uptrend. How come I don't believe it? How come I can't find anything to buy? Is this one of the few false signals his method for determining market direction gives, or is this rally for real? Peter Christiansen Bangkok, Thailand Connected with OS/2 Warp 3.0 & The Post Road Mailer _____________________________________________________________________________________ Real programmers use COPY CON PROGRAM.EXE ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Craig A. Griffin" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] A New Uptrend Has Begun?? Date: 23 Apr 1997 13:06:37 -0400 Peter, At 09:10 PM 4/23/97 GMT+7, you wrote: >Well, yesterday the DOW and S&P 500 both closed up more than 1% on 26% more >volume than the previous day. This comes on the seventh day of the attempted rally. >According to Mr. O'Neil's writings, the market is now in an uptrend. How come I >don't believe it? How come I can't find anything to buy? Is this one of the few false >signals his method for determining market direction gives, or is this rally for real? Nice question. Here is my opinion, for what it is worth ... I believe that leaders like CAT and MSFT are showing the way. I also believe there are several "markets" right now (and this is a bad sign). The techs and mid-cap and small-cap NASDAQ keep getting clobbered, yet a select few (ie. the S&P500) continue to look strong. My inclination is to start selected buying based on the follow-through day yesterday in the S&P and the action of certain leading stocks. The market has narrowed significantly and maybe ready to reverse at any time, but right now it is saying "UP" for the big-caps (and the NASDAQ may come along in tow later, or the rally may fall apart in a week). Here is what my approach would be if I was to do any buying: 1) to be looking for good breakouts like the two mentioned above, 2) in stocks that are large caps for the most part, but with exceptions (so non-canslim in that sense), 3) catch them CLOSE to the pivot (I would not chase them up more than 5% in this market), may want to catch a few on a pullback to the pivot and bounce (some of those second chance buys are occurring now in the stronger small caps), 4) buy slightly smaller positions than usual, 5) have tight stops based on any improper behavior (sell at least 1/2 on re-entry of base as MHLR did recently, watch for good volume on up days, light volume on down days, be even more vigilant for other clues signaling improper behavior). Be sure to look at weekly volume charts also, and especially look for proper action while it was in the base, 6) don't buy off of short bases (less than 8 weeks) and avoid 3rd and 4th stage breakouts, 7) go only for stocks with very tight bases (20% or less in range) like MSFT, GE and CAT and look for great volume on b/o's like MSFT and CAT 8) avoid buying before earnings news (be aware of EPS due dates prior to buying) 9) be especially aware of group stength and who the leaders in the group are, only buy the real leaders in groups with poor RS (like MSFT) 10) start looking for groups that are moving to the top in RS and for the leaders in those groups (like the airlines, and look for tight bases, early breakouts based on good earnings, good fundies, pay special attention to the RS line ...). Doesn't O'Neil say somewhere that the leaders crack last? Or do I have it backwards? The market still looks bad to me, but there are some select opportunities. I would not jump in with both feet just yet, personally, but nibble slowly and try to make each new entry work out before moving on to the next one. Just my opinion. Regards, Craig PS. Remember Mr. O'Neil says you have to "bend like a tree in the breeze". ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Craig A. Griffin" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] A New Uptrend Has Begun?? Date: 23 Apr 1997 15:22:46 -0400 Peter, At 09:10 PM 4/23/97 GMT+7, you wrote: >Well, yesterday the DOW and S&P 500 both closed up more than 1% on 26% more >volume than the previous day. This comes on the seventh day of the attempted rally. One other thing I have been thinking about re: the rally. I had been under the earlier impression that the rally had failed once a down day occurred during the bounce. However I looked back at the JPEG file that we uploaded from O'Neil's free seminar in Orlando (it is still available at >>>> http://users.ccnet.com/~marto/mktstudy.jpg . I noticed that on the initial distribution at the top, O'Neil shows sell signals on any rally failure (ie. down day) in order to get himself out of a failing market. But that on the actual rally off the lows around July 19th, when he is presumably completely out of the market, he allows for a little sideways action in the uptrend (with at least one down day in there before the uptrend continues). This fits well with the action in the DOW and S&P and allows your count of a 7 day rally (even though there was some sideways action for a few days on the way up) - see the DOW or S&P chart for details (one place to see a chart that includes nearly up to the minute action is Telescan at >>>>> http://host.telescan.com/wsc/U.56791.724067.192/timespan.html?TSym=.DJI?233,13 And this all fits with the front page of IBD today which had the headline "Dow Leaps 173 on Volume In Follow Through Action". Just wanted to clear up my own confusion, and anyone elses that went through the JPEG analysis of the NASDAQ's July 96 Correction way back when. Thoughts, Peter, anyone? Regards, Craig ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Craig A. Griffin" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] LL to UR graphs Date: 23 Apr 1997 16:34:46 -0400 Tom At 11:13 PM 4/22/97 -0400, you wrote: >Beg to disagree, I've posted several original reviews on MSFT and >related groups, just got no response or reaction, including >tonight. You are correct, pardon. I DID intend to exclude you from the group who did not mention MSFT. Although, indeed, no one responded "this looks like a classic b/o", or, "isn't this a leader taking off in a bad market, could be a turn in the mkt or countertrend stock" or anything following your post, and that was the point I meant to make. >Been noticing the airlines, despite the recent re-imposition of the >$10 tax, doesn't seem to have slowed them. thought I was the only >one, and I don't trust the group, so not worth commenting. I don't like to rule out any group with this kind of strength. Just when you decide they are all trash (like the semi's a while back, or the banks a couple of years back), they turn around and start leading. Gotta stay flexible, Tom :). Look at the quotes on U, UAL, DAL today. Not worth missing. >Big caps, cyclicals rule the marketplace. Seems like. >I prefer the DG Online, paper version doesn't have a scanning >version either, and am hopeful someone will come up with a >technique for screening even if WON doesn't provide it. I need to spend some time working with it before I can decide. Folks, Sorry if my post yesterday seemed a little harsh to anyone. I enjoy the banter and especially jokes as much as the next person. Just don't like to miss opportunities by staying off track for long periods. MSFT is powerful, anybody catch it? Within 5% at 107 or 108? Hope somebody snabbed it, Tom pointed it out in plenty of time Thursday night. I missed it ... But, a personal aside, I partially plead distraction (was in hospital emergency room all day Friday in some pain from pleurisy, but all is ok now. Took me until yesterday to get off anti-inflamatory drug that had me a bit woozy - doctor replaced it with something weaker. Afraid to make buy/sell decisions until today. Also, might be making me a bit irascible ;^) ). Regards, Craig ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Hemant Rotithor Subject: [CANSLIM] Keep those good stock suggestions Coming Date: 23 Apr 1997 17:09:56 -0400 Craig A. Griffin wrote: > But, a personal aside, I partially plead distraction (was in hospital > emergency room all day Friday in some pain from pleurisy, but all is ok now. > Took me until yesterday to get off anti-inflamatory drug that had me a bit > woozy - doctor replaced it with something weaker. Afraid to make buy/sell > decisions until today. Also, might be making me a bit irascible ;^) ). > > Regards, > Craig Craig Hope you feel better. It seems like CANSLIM and HGS are not suited in this environment, so how many of us are trading at all and what are they doing? Would like to hear about people's low risk, short-term trades (low risk because one is able to very strongly justify the trade before making it so in practice in may not be really low risk but the investor is at least convinced about it thoroughly) if anybody has a good methodology, picks, and their justification? I played ASND for a small bounce up, but now it appears that ASND is facing a strong resistance at 40.5 and more likely to go down (not too many buyers today on a strong day but many sellers when it went above 40); I am not very confident that it will go down immediately (but think likely) so I am not playing it on the short side but I will play it for the long side when it bottoms below 35 or so. Any comments thoughts? Thanks James/Brenda please post if you have any good picks with your thoughts and do not get discouraged (as Mike mentioned, each poster has a distinctive style and we should try to adapt to it to derive maximum benefit of our talent). -- Disclaimer: Opinions expressed in this document are those of the author. Digital Equipment Corp., 110 Spit Brook Rd, ZKO2-3/N30, Nashua, NH 03062 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Hemant Rotithor Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] A New Uptrend Has Begun?? Date: 23 Apr 1997 17:30:59 -0400 Craig A. Griffin wrote: > > I noticed that on the initial distribution at the top, O'Neil shows sell > signals on any rally failure (ie. down day) in order to get himself out of a > failing market. But that on the actual rally off the lows around July 19th, > when he is presumably completely out of the market, he allows for a little > sideways action in the uptrend (with at least one down day in there before > the uptrend continues). Another interesting thing is that on that chart O'Neill shows a cup and a handle being formed on NASDAQ but look at where he is calling the buy point. Now with the usual Cup handle theory one would let the stock base for a while and then buy on a price+volume breakout. If one looks at the graph both the handle and price+volume breakout are there on the graph, the price+volume breakout appears to happen later on (9 days after the last holiday marked on the graph, I can't see clearly what day it is). WMO shows a buy point right in the middle of the up point of cup formation. Now what might be a reason for doing that? Would you not feel more comfortable after buying at the later point at which we normally buy stocks? what is good for the goose.... In fact, coming out of a bear/serious downtrend one would feel more comfortable with a stronger confirmation; I am assuming that price+volume breakout is a stronger confirmation than just the 3-10 days followthrough. Is it possible that since WMO is advising funds, they have to get in as soon as possible and not miss out on any gain? Thoughts appreciated. -- Disclaimer: Opinions expressed in this document are those of the author. Digital Equipment Corp., 110 Spit Brook Rd, ZKO2-3/N30, Nashua, NH 03062 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Zoran Mitrovski Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] LL to UR graphs Date: 23 Apr 1997 18:01:29 -0400 (EDT) Craig wrote: > MSFT is powerful, anybody catch it? Within 5% at 107 or 108? Hope somebody > snabbed it, Tom pointed it out in plenty of time Thursday night. I missed > it ... I was ready to short it if it topped at around 103-104 but when I saw the volume Friday morning I had to hop in at around 105 with a stop at 102 before I left for NYC for the weekend. A perfect example of a Darvas' box (88,103) breakout. I got out today at 114. Don't want to be greedy and don't have the time to follow it closely because of my studies. This was my first long position in months. Presently I have a vacation hold on my IBD, and if I do any trading it is mainly on the short side on bounces off down-trend lines I took out of my (last) March28 DG. I was watching MSFT after the earnings and was ready to short it, as well, expecting it to top at 103-104. In a market like this I'd only play short-term longs on lazy liquid large caps with lots of inertia and mainly on technical basis. As for shorts I posted what I do a month ago. Works great. Since my start in November, I have made the same amount of money on the short side as I made on the long side. Also, as my confidence rises I feel less compelled to seek approval and support from others, so perhaps that's why I stopped airing my actual trading endeavors here. They are not CANSLIM anyway. Cheers, Zoran http://www.seas.rochester.edu:8080/ee/users/zmitrov/home.html ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Craig A. Griffin" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Keep those good stock suggestions Coming Date: 23 Apr 1997 18:12:00 -0400 Hemant, At 05:09 PM 4/23/97 -0400, you wrote: >James/Brenda please post if you have any good picks with your thoughts >and do not get discouraged (as Mike mentioned, each poster has a >distinctive style and we should try to adapt to it to derive maximum >benefit of our talent). I agree. No one should be discouraged by anything anyone says. Gotta be true to oneself. I learn something or get food for thought from 90% of the posts. Regards, Craig ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] A New Uptrend Has Begun?? Date: 23 Apr 1997 20:49:21 -0400 It's strictly a big cap market, both on NYSE and NASDAQ. The 1% gain today on NASDAQ, led by MSFT (new high in a GRS of 3!) and supported by INTC, both critical leaders, is a very positive signal. tom w ---------- > From: Peter Christiansen > To: CANSLIM > Subject: [CANSLIM] A New Uptrend Has Begun?? > Date: Wednesday, April 23, 1997 5:10 PM > > Well, yesterday the DOW and S&P 500 both closed up more than 1% on 26% more > volume than the previous day. This comes on the seventh day of the attempted rally. > According to Mr. O'Neil's writings, the market is now in an uptrend. How come I > don't believe it? ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] A New Uptrend Has Begun?? Date: 23 Apr 1997 20:51:48 -0400 With the volatility of the past two plus months, finding 8 week charts is, at best, difficult and likely to miss some good ones. I am looking at anything with more than a one week base, altho prefer 3-4 weeks. This is not a perfect mkt, I will consider imperfect chart formations. tom w ---------- > From: Craig A. Griffin > To: canslim@mail.xmission.com > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] A New Uptrend Has Begun?? > Date: Wednesday, April 23, 1997 1:06 PM > > 6) don't buy off of short bases (less than 8 weeks) and avoid 3rd and 4th > stage breakouts, > 7) go only for stocks with very tight bases (20% or less in range) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] LL to UR graphs Date: 23 Apr 1997 20:57:14 -0400 Worth watching IBM tomorrow, beat estimates soundly with report released after the close, no aftermarket indication as was still halted, so the aftermkt players will be in there with us in the AM. Because of all the prior rumors of weakening growth in Big Blue, hard one to call, but with the tech leaders doing so well lately, and institutional mgrs still in love with Big Blue and its liquidity, if I had to beat it would be for a gap up. tom w ---------- > From: Craig A. Griffin > To: canslim@mail.xmission.com > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] LL to UR graphs > Date: Wednesday, April 23, 1997 4:34 PM > > MSFT is powerful, anybody catch it? Within 5% at 107 or 108? Hope somebody > snabbed it, Tom pointed it out in plenty of time Thursday night. I missed > it ... ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: [CANSLIM] Market correction Date: 23 Apr 1997 21:27:04 -0400 As of Wednesday, April 23, 1997, at a minimum, the end is in sight to this current correction. tom w Any opinions are strictly my own and not that of my employer. My comments are based on a variety of sources and are intended strictly to assist and inform. In no way am I suggesting a buy, sell, or hold decision based on my comments or observations. I always urge an investor to do his or her own homework, and be sure the risk of the market can be tolerated and any losses accepted gracefully. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: David F. Cameron Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] LL to UR graphs Date: 23 Apr 1997 20:57:18 CDT Hey, Zoran: > > Also, as my confidence rises I feel less compelled to seek > approval and support from others, so perhaps that's why I > stopped airing my actual trading endeavors here. They are > not CANSLIM anyway. > I, for one, would like to hear them anyway. Your picks are well thought out - and I can learn from your reasoning as well as you can learn from people's in this group. So... post away, if you don't mind (from time to time). > Cheers, > Zoran > http://www.seas.rochester.edu:8080/ee/users/zmitrov/home.html > > Dave Cameron dcameron@harper.cc.il.us ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Michael A Langston Subject: [CANSLIM] HWURSH (was re: A New Uptrend Has Begun??) Date: 23 Apr 1997 22:40:56 -0400 hemant writes: > WMO shows a buy point right in the middle of the up point of cup > formation. Now what might be a reason for doing that? i don't have the chart handy hemant, but if i'm reading you correctly this is a fairly common CANSLIM trick that woodward, horam and others sometimes espouse -- in good HGS markets traders even use acronyms, for example HWURSH, for buying Half Way Up the Right Side of the Handle -- a long shallow cup, followed by a shorter and shallower handle makes this trick tempting as you see volume start to come into a stock and push it toward the old high but maybe i'm misinterpreting your comment w/o a picture -- if this isn't the situation you're describing, sorry, file away for when HGS are popular again mike ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: [CANSLIM] MSFT, INTC, market Date: 23 Apr 1997 22:30:01 -0400 After looking at the DG Online charts for these two stocks, am further encouraged that the recent moves are for real (course, since the mkt is the last great humbling experience, likely I will be proven terribly wrong on profit taking tomorrow). However, they are following the pattern I hypothesized a week or so ago, just a little quicker, in which they tank on good earnings, then several weeks later come back into favor big time. Also looked at the chart on IBM and, despite all the neg rumors on lack of growth, and maybe because of them), a gap up looks favorable (now why didn't I gamble on some calls today? That's right, don't want to risk remaining capital, oh yeah, I remember now) (not a good sign, I'm emailing to myself now). tom w Any opinions are strictly my own and not that of my employer. My comments are based on a variety of sources and are intended strictly to assist and inform. In no way am I suggesting a buy, sell, or hold decision based on my comments or observations. I always urge an investor to do his or her own homework, and be sure the risk of the market can be tolerated and any losses accepted gracefully. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: David F. Cameron Subject: [CANSLIM] IBM (was LL to UR graphs) Date: 23 Apr 1997 21:00:28 CDT Tom, Just got this - as I was responding to another message... > > Worth watching IBM tomorrow, beat estimates soundly with report > released after the close, no aftermarket indication as was still > halted, so the aftermkt players will be in there with us in the AM. > Because of all the prior rumors of weakening growth in Big Blue, > hard one to call, but with the tech leaders doing so well lately, What!?! You're hedging? You've said 80 times over this is a big cap market, this is a big cap market, this is a big cap market..... what's IBM? A big cap stock, a big cap stock, a big cap stock... > and institutional mgrs still in love with Big Blue and its > liquidity, if I had to beat it would be for a gap up. Good to see you're consistent > > tom w > ---------- Dave Cameron dcameron@harper.cc.il.us ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Peter Christiansen Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] A New Uptrend Has Begun?? Date: 24 Apr 1997 16:48:42 GMT+7 ** Reply to note from "Craig A. Griffin" Wed, 23 Apr 1997 13:06:37 -0400 > The market has narrowed significantly and > maybe ready to reverse at any time, but right now it is saying "UP" for the > big-caps (and the NASDAQ may come along in tow later, or the rally may fall > apart in a week). This market has been getting narrower and narrower for months. I can't help but feel that it has got to break in a big way. I think I will continue to avoid longs for the time being. Peter Christiansen Bangkok, Thailand Connected with OS/2 Warp 3.0 & The Post Road Mailer _____________________________________________________________________________________ Civilization is the process of setting man free from men. -- Ayn Rand ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] A New Uptrend Has Begun?? Date: 24 Apr 1997 06:59:44 -0400 There is one aspect of today's market which I think everyone overlooks (least haven't seen it mentioned here, nor by airhead commentators). Today's market, compared even to as little as five years ago, has got so much money invested via mutual funds, and most of them must remain 95% invested. There is also tremendous amount of money via pension funds. Very little money in the mkt is from individual investors who can easily choose to cash out, or short. Most of the money must stay in the mkt somewhere, barring a major withdrawal by mutual fund holders or a switch into money mkt funds (which would likely be temporary). It's got to go somewhere, so big caps are likely to maintain strength until/unless other sectors finally manage to look consistently stronger, then that sector could become the leader. Either way, the money's staying invested. tom w ---------- > From: Peter Christiansen > To: canslim@mail.xmission.com > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] A New Uptrend Has Begun?? > Date: Thursday, April 24, 1997 12:48 PM > > This market has been getting narrower and narrower for months. I can't help but feel > that it has got to break in a big way. > > I think I will continue to avoid longs for the time being. > > ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] IBM (was LL to UR graphs) Date: 24 Apr 1997 07:05:51 -0400 Big Blue recently seemed to have been acknowledged as having finally fallen off its throne as the #1 institutional favorite (altho would have thought its drop below 40 several years ago would have done that, and didn't) and was replaced by MSFT. Lately, the frequent rumors and stories about slowing growth, and possible earnings estimate cuts by analysts, appeared to confirm this. However, a fast scan of the earnings reports suggests to me that analysts may be slow to downgrade this one. Check for any upgrades or downgrades by major wirehouses before the open. If only positive news, then expect institutional dollars to flow into IBM today. (corrected my typo as well - bet, not beat, never beat IBM, it's too powerful) tom w ---------- > From: David F. Cameron > To: canslim@mail.xmission.com > Subject: [CANSLIM] IBM (was LL to UR graphs) > Date: Wednesday, April 23, 1997 10:00 PM > > What!?! You're hedging? You've said 80 times over this is > a big cap market, this is a big cap market, this is a big > > liquidity, if I had to bet it would be for a gap up. > > Good to see you're consistent > > ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: [CANSLIM] Fw: Let's Climb Back Onboard Date: 24 Apr 1997 07:22:24 -0400 Forwarded with James' permission for those looking for some ideas, both on the mkt at large as well as specific stocks. Do your homework, check the charts, and stay alert. tom w ---------- > From: Brenda > To: Tom Worley > Subject: Let's Climb Back Onboard > Date: Wednesday, April 23, 1997 11:23 PM > > Tom, > Thanks for the fax. However, don't think it will be much consolation > to those who I had in it that are now NOT in it. Nobody is in MLHR or AMD. > Some who had extremely loose stops on WBPR are still in it. Nobody now in > GDYS. Sat on the sideline today and watched A LOT. Then studied a LOT > tonight. When the market "starts" to act right I get signals in my Wall > Chart Timing Indicator and I get them early. Got them three weeks ago and > then again last week. They usually come BEFORE the turn up or down. Once > again, temporarily, they seem to have worked. Sat on the sidelines with > actual cash available. Haven't done that in a long, long time. The worst > account I manage is down 15% since they started and they started Feb 15th. > May sound or look bad to most, but with my experience it will be made up > rather quickly "IF" we have just about seen the bottom. A restest is ok as > long as it holds. Another fact I have found that when a market begins to > act right again you will once again begin to see CANSLIM shapes. Here are > some graph shapes that either are now or are very close to becoming CANSLIM > shapes. Those stocks are: CSTF, CYMI, DAYR, EVI, FDO, HALO, IBC, INVX, > LSCC, MSON, SPOT, PHG, SOC, UTR, SVM and WWW. That should be enough to get > you started. I just put them in holding tank #2 and watch daily. I'll > probably miss out on the EXACT pivot and/or buy point but by keeping them > there, and watching daily, I will not be more than 1/2 day behind. If a > system is more sensitive than that it is of no use to me. The only stock > still in the holding tank #1 that merits consideration is VC. > Will be putting all of my managed account back in 100% tomorrow. Will > be making some purchases into all of them. The stocks that I will be > picking from to buy are: DF (237,100), BCF (55,900), MK (239,600), FDO > (474,100), TRY (91,600), CNC (651,600) and even MSON (78,100). I read about > nobody having anything that interests them in this market and here I sit > with more stocks to pick from than funds to spend. Wish I could put an > equal dollar amount in all of those. Reading articles on each now. That > usually doesn't help the situation but rather muddies up the water usually. > > Today's results for the Wall Chart: 35% down, 47% up, AND once again > 33% of the stocks on the list closed at or equal to their 52 week highs. > Those doing that were: BBRC, CPWR, CTS, DS, DF, DELL, EPG, FCAA, FDO, FOOT, > MSON, MK, SVM, TRY and WLA. Seventeen percent of the stocks closed > unchanged. That usually denotes a turn. Twenty percent yesterday were > unchanged. Those are unusually high figures for that category. If the trend > was one day longer I would say the market would go ........ (what do you > think?) .... UP tomorrow. That is contrary to everything that I think and > feel. But the trend is not established to be sure. Have a good day tomorrow > and hope some of my investors make a little. > James ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Peter Christiansen Subject: [CANSLIM] Couple of Breakouts Date: 24 Apr 1997 18:52:07 GMT+7 I'm not buying... But for those that are interested, two issues on my very short list of possible longs have broken out. 1. Energy Ventures (EVI) 2. Hooper Holmes (HH) note: Hooper reversed yesterday on increased volume, which makes it a look a little suspect to me. All of the CANSLIM characteristics are there, except maybe M. Peter Christiansen Bangkok, Thailand Connected with OS/2 Warp 3.0 & The Post Road Mailer _____________________________________________________________________________________ Intellectual freedom cannot exist without political freedom; political freedom cannot exist without economic freedom; a free mind and a free market are corollaries. -- Ayn Rand, "For The New Intellectual," For The New Intellectual ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: [CANSLIM] The various markets Date: 24 Apr 1997 07:41:43 -0400 Just looked at the market indicators for NYSE and NASDAQ. I'm calling for a decent up mkt in NASDAQ, and possibly NYSE as well, for today. NASDAQ is still severely oversold overall, yesterday's move was encouraging even tho vol not confirmatory, and produced the first upturn in RS in nearly three weeks. However, keep in mind that the tech groups are far move severely oversold that NASDAQ at large, and they, in MHO, are the strongest, longest, best leadership group. You can quote me, "as goes the techs, so goes NASDAQ". Biggest problem on NASDAQ are the new highs, to be polite it is still dismal. However, takes a few consistent up days to dry up the new lows and let the performing stocks go to work. With tech stocks so far off their highs for the most part, they have a ways to go to reach this goal. No major economic news today, just jobless claims for the week, bonds corrected yesterday and NASDAQ didn't care. tom w Any opinions are strictly my own and not that of my employer. My comments are based on a variety of sources and are intended strictly to assist and inform. In no way am I suggesting a buy, sell, or hold decision based on my comments or observations. I always urge an investor to do his or her own homework, and be sure the risk of the market can be tolerated and any losses accepted gracefully. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Peter Christiansen Subject: [CANSLIM] Thoughts on James' Picks Date: 24 Apr 1997 19:32:06 GMT+7 Just took a quick look at the charts of James' "close to becoming CANSLIM" picks. CYMI, DAYR, INVX, SOC, and UTR all look interesting and I will keep my eyes on them. The following appear to me to have a ways to go before becoming CANSLIM candidates. CSTF is in a downtrend, way off its 52 week high, and has badly lagging RS. FDO has a rather short base, and the handle seem rather wide and loose. HALO is way off its highs, and the RS is badly lagging. SPOT has lagging RS. I feel that "L" is the most important of the CANSLIM characteristics, which eliminates three of the selections above. Just my 2 cents. Peter Christiansen Bangkok, Thailand Connected with OS/2 Warp 3.0 & The Post Road Mailer _____________________________________________________________________________________ I tried an internal modem, but it hurt when I walked. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Hemant Rotithor Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] HWURSH (was re: A New Uptrend Has Begun??) Date: 24 Apr 1997 10:00:14 -0400 Michael A Langston wrote: > > hemant writes: > > > WMO shows a buy point right in the middle of the up point of cup > > formation. Now what might be a reason for doing that? > > i don't have the chart handy hemant, but if i'm reading you correctly > this is a fairly common CANSLIM trick that woodward, horam and others > sometimes espouse -- in good HGS markets traders even use acronyms, > for example HWURSH, for buying Half Way Up the Right Side of the > Handle -- a long shallow cup, followed by a shorter and shallower > handle makes this trick tempting as you see volume start to come into > a stock and push it toward the old high > > but maybe i'm misinterpreting your comment w/o a picture -- if this > isn't the situation you're describing, sorry, file away for when HGS > are popular again > > mike Mike Thanks for the information, it is good to know about HWURSH. The chart was for July-Aug96 NASDAQ so it did not appear like a good HGS period probably quite the opposite. I am not sure if the cup handle had a long-shallow cup; how would one define a long-shallow cup on the NASDAQ chart? Thanks for interesting information. -- Disclaimer: Opinions expressed in this document are those of the author. Digital Equipment Corp., 110 Spit Brook Rd, ZKO2-3/N30, Nashua, NH 03062 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Jay Cliburn" Subject: [CANSLIM] DAYR Date: 24 Apr 1997 08:56:01 -0600 Qtrly earnings reported 4/22/97: 97Q3: 0.01/shr vs. 96Q3: 0.11/shr Doesn't speak well for 'C' in CANSLIM. -- Jay Cliburn | Space Dynamics Laboratory Computational Sciences Division | 1747 North Research Park Way Jay.Cliburn@sdl.usu.edu | Logan, Utah, USA 84341 (801) 755-4317 (voice) | (801) 755-4366 (fax) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Michael A Langston Subject: re: [CANSLIM] HWURSH (was re: A New Uptrend Has Begun??) Date: 24 Apr 1997 10:59:54 -0400 > The chart was for July-Aug96 NASDAQ so it did not appear like a good HGS > period probably quite the opposite. i agree hemant -- in fact you can make a swell case that HGS have been out of favor since last may or june -- just check out R for the fund index on page B3 of IBD...very ugly... > how would one define a long-shallow cup on the NASDAQ chart? long and shallow are of course relative terms -- by long i mean something on the order of a few weeks, not a few days -- and by shallow i mean a trading range of a few percent, not a stock that's been cut in half just to form a cup -- in general, tight patterns (and hence shallow ones if c&h) tend to make for believable b/o's -- OTOH, wide and loose patterns (and hence deep if c&h) sometimes indicate a stock favored by day traders and weak hands, and thus prone to b/o failure -- incidentally, watch for any so-called "spider legs" (large downward intraday swings that leave a stock relatively unchanged by the close), since they are sometimes the first signs that a stock is cracking, moving from a tight pattern to a loose one mike p.s. as a reminder to newbies/lurkers here, the letters E, R and G are easy ways to refer to Eps rank, Relative strength and Group strength/rank -- thus one might see a reference to a "high ERG stock," for example one with at least a 90 for each of these 3 metrics ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: GoldFish Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Keep those good stock suggestions Coming Date: 24 Apr 1997 20:12:04 -0700 I am buying COMS again. Look at the 10 day chart of COMS at (http://www.tscn.com/wsc/U.56791.0.991/timespan.html?TSym=COMS?150,17) , it is forming a cup and handle. The volume at Today morning increase and the price has a break out to $29.7. A short term bottom seems formed, based on the following observation: the volume increased as the price increased and volume decrease when the price dropped. Warning, however, the long term picture (200 day mva) is still very negative. (These are psudo-logic, not for fundamental folks!) This is a gambling not an investing. I just want to see how good is the so call cup-and-handle. -- GoldFish "Every stock is a bad stock..." ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: GoldFish Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] IBM (was LL to UR graphs) Date: 24 Apr 1997 20:15:31 -0700 This morning, CNBC has a tecnical analysist report the meeting that IBM has with insitutional investor. 1)IBM is ending the program of stock buy back. 2)IBM's only growth is about 9% from its server segment. A very negative tone. Tom Worley wrote: > > Big Blue recently seemed to have been acknowledged as having > finally fallen off its throne as the #1 institutional favorite > (altho would have thought its drop below 40 several years ago would > have done that, and didn't) and was replaced by MSFT. Lately, the > frequent rumors and stories about slowing growth, and possible > earnings estimate cuts by analysts, appeared to confirm this. > However, a fast scan of the earnings reports suggests to me that > analysts may be slow to downgrade this one. Check for any upgrades > or downgrades by major wirehouses before the open. If only positive > news, then expect institutional dollars to flow into IBM today. > (corrected my typo as well - bet, not beat, never beat IBM, it's > too powerful) > > tom w > ---------- -- GoldFish "Every stock is a bad stock..." ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Hemant Rotithor Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Keep those good stock suggestions Coming Date: 24 Apr 1997 20:54:26 -0700 GoldFish wrote: > > I am buying COMS again. > Look at the 10 day chart of COMS at > (http://www.tscn.com/wsc/U.56791.0.991/timespan.html?TSym=COMS?150,17) > > This is a gambling not an investing. > I just want to see how good is the so call cup-and-handle. But will you really see how good is a cup and a handle from this experiment because COMS is not at a 52 week high and any attempt at rally could be killed by the overhead resistance? Good luck -- Disclaimer: Opinions expressed in this document are those of the author. Digital Equipment Corp., 110 Spit Brook Rd, ZKO2-3/N30, Nashua, NH 03062 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Craig A. Griffin" Subject: [CANSLIM] Airline stocks Date: 24 Apr 1997 21:08:27 -0400 Just a brief update. I have had a few good words to say about the airlines lately. Well, today the three I checked: U, UAL, and DAL got hit. Two good signs: 1) they haven't violated support, 2) volume was slightly lower than yesterday's advance. Haven't tried to find out why ... guess I'll read about it in IBD. If volume drops off and they pull back to support, could be a buying opportunity on a bounce in a few days. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: GoldFish Subject: [CANSLIM] Cup-with-a-Handle Date: 24 Apr 1997 21:16:23 -0700 Dear Hermant: I am reading pg 152~155 of William O'Neil's book. Here is the points that I gathered: 1)It is normal for growth stocks to create a cup pattern during intermediate general market declines and correct 1 1/2 to 2 times the market averages, sometimes up to 2 1/2 times. 2)A very few volatile leaders can plunge as much as 40 or 50% in a bull market. He did not mention a 52 week new high is needed. Am I missing something here? Thank you for your response. -- GoldFish "Every stock is a bad stock..." Hemant Rotithor wrote: > > GoldFish wrote: > > > > I am buying COMS again. > > Look at the 10 day chart of COMS at > > (http://www.tscn.com/wsc/U.56791.0.991/timespan.html?TSym=COMS?150,17) > > > > This is a gambling not an investing. > > I just want to see how good is the so call cup-and-handle. > > But will you really see how good is a cup and a handle from this > experiment because COMS is not at a 52 week high and any attempt at > rally could be killed by the overhead resistance? > Good luck > -- > Disclaimer: Opinions expressed in this document are those of the author. > Digital Equipment Corp., 110 Spit Brook Rd, ZKO2-3/N30, Nashua, NH 03062 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Craig A. Griffin" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Cup-with-a-Handle Date: 24 Apr 1997 22:01:58 -0400 Goldfish, All the lines you read from O'Neils book ring true. But, you DO also need to be at or near a new high. Cup/hdl's are not as valid or useful at the bottom of a long decline. They can still work, but they are not the ones O'Neil is referring to. He is talking about the ones at the top of an advance. After a stock advances, when it pauses to refresh, it frequently bases with a cup/hdl formation. For an example of this pattern with a breakout today, take a look at MCK - McKesson Corp. It has an approximate 7-8 week base. The handle has a shakeout in it (which is good - get rid of weaker holders) and the volume drys up on a daily chart over the days leading into the breakout. On a weekly chart, the last 5 weeks have closed up (counting this one), which shows accumulation in the handle. Technically, it is a pretty chart IMO. Unfortunately, MCK does not have CANSLIM numbers (earnings estimate for 97 is down from 96 and last few qtrs are have lower earnings than same quarter in prior year. On the plus side, Fiscal Year ends in March. So we now start into the 1998 FY, which has a positive estimate. In spite of the Canslim numbers not being perfect, I would far rather own MCK than COMS, simply based on chart pattern. Of course, what one is ideally looking for is a MCK chart pattern with betterCANSLIM fundamental numbers. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] HWURSH (was re: A New Uptrend Has Begun??) Date: 24 Apr 1997 21:44:48 -0400 I would go further and say any change in trading pattern (eg loose to very tight or vice versa) is a warning flag and you should be alert. Might signal a break out or a break down. tom w ---------- > From: Michael A Langston > To: canslim@mail.xmission.com > Subject: re: [CANSLIM] HWURSH (was re: A New Uptrend Has Begun??) > Date: Thursday, April 24, 1997 10:59 AM > > weak hands, and thus prone to b/o failure -- incidentally, watch for any > so-called "spider legs" (large downward intraday swings that leave a stock > relatively unchanged by the close), since they are sometimes the first > signs that a stock is cracking, moving from a tight pattern to a loose one ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Hemant Rotithor Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Cup-with-a-Handle Date: 24 Apr 1997 22:19:31 -0700 GoldFish wrote: > > Dear Hermant: > > I am reading pg 152~155 of William O'Neil's book. Here is the points > that I gathered: > 1)It is normal for growth stocks to create a cup pattern during > intermediate general market declines and correct 1 1/2 to 2 times the > market averages, sometimes up to 2 1/2 times. > 2)A very few volatile leaders can plunge as much as 40 or 50% in a bull > market. > > He did not mention a 52 week new high is needed. Am I missing something > here? > Thank you for your response. > > -- > GoldFish Look at page 175 and 214 where he essentially explains overhead supply and that good chartists will never buy a stock with an overhead supply. Since COMS debacle happened recently, it has a lot of overhead supply and anxious investors waiting to get out on a bounce. -- Disclaimer: Opinions expressed in this document are those of the author. Digital Equipment Corp., 110 Spit Brook Rd, ZKO2-3/N30, Nashua, NH 03062 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: GoldFish Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Cup-with-a-Handle Date: 24 Apr 1997 22:13:25 -0700 Dear Craig: Thank you for the response. I learned a lot. I misunderstand the cup-and-handle and probably will pay for it. -- GoldFish "Every stock is a bad stock..." ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: GoldFish Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Cup-with-a-Handle Date: 24 Apr 1997 22:27:45 -0700 Dear Hemant: Thank you for your response. I have the 1st Edition of William O'Neil's book. I got the explanation of Overhead Supply on page 165 and 200. Are you reading different edition of his book? Never thought of the overhead supply. Thanks a lot. -- GoldFish "Every stock is a bad stock..." ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Craig A. Griffin" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Cup-with-a-Handle Date: 24 Apr 1997 22:42:45 -0400 Goldfish, At 10:13 PM 4/24/97 -0700, you wrote: >I misunderstand the cup-and-handle and probably will pay for it. Maybe not. I can't predict or I would be rich :), but here is my COMS accessment. It looks like it hit a "climax bottom" short term on 4/22 (the day it was down to 24, but ended up closing at 27 1/8 (up 7/8 for the day)). It also had heavy volume for the day. I think this is called a "volume reversal". It looks like bottoming action to me. Don't get me wrong, I am not a bottom fisher and would not buy COMS. I just wanted to say that it does not look terrible. With a little luck it might continue it's recent bounce here (it has been up 3 days in a row). So you might get a chance to get out with a profit, or you might do fine holding it, I really can't predict. It is just not a CANSLIM buy, that's all. It could still work out. On the other hand, it might have further to go on the downside, but if it does, I suspect it will take it a few days to make up it's mind. One last thought, nothing much worse than Intel jumping into one's market with both feet is likely to happen, unless it comes out with poor earnings (and they are not due until June per DG). I hope it works out for you. Regards, Craig ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] IBM (was LL to UR graphs) Date: 24 Apr 1997 22:28:58 -0400 I'm truly amazed. Last night and this morning, I posted several predictions including a gap up on IBM, got one response disagreeing with me. IBM gapped up 8 pts and then went on to be as much as up 15 before closing up over 11. Not a single comment back from this group with a well done on a controversial prediction. I also stated my opinion that the correction has ended, not one response back either agreeing, disagreeing, challenging, or even asking for my basis. Finally, I went out on a limb and predicted a decent day for NASDAQ and possibly NYSE. They were both up over 1% for part of the day, till interest hike fears set in again and profit taking commenced, probably aided a little by program trading. Still, NASDAQ ended up in the plus column slightly, and altho the Dow 30 gave up 20 pts, the rest of the technicals for NYSE were neutral. And again, not one comment, response, etc. I made specific predictions on a stock, a day's trading, and on an overall market trend. What does it take to get some discussion going here? I might as well talk to the mirror in the morning while shaving, at least on those mornings I bother to shave! And yes, discussing a c&h well below a stock's handle is probably beneficial, but from the first post I read, I muttered "overhead supply, resistance, how recent, etc". Some probably didn't think of this as quickly, some were probably even faster. But what if I am right? A number of you have commented that you have cashed out and are waiting for the turn in the market. If the mkt has indeed turned, shouldn't we be discussing or arguing about it, challenging each other's opinion and basis? The deafening silence here on what is going on with "M" amazes, surprises and disappoints me. Sadly, I was too busy at work yesterday to do my homework before the close. I had intended to buy IBM 150 May calls, which would have given me about a three to four bagger in one day. Since my work load continues to overwhelm me, I am now focusing on similiar situations for next week so I can plan further ahead. I suspect there will be a number of other charts, and situations, like IBM out there in next week's earnings. good luck, hope you figure it out tom w ---------- > From: GoldFish > To: canslim@mail.xmission.com > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] IBM (was LL to UR graphs) > Date: Thursday, April 24, 1997 11:15 PM > > This morning, CNBC has a tecnical analysist report the meeting > that IBM has with insitutional investor. > > 1)IBM is ending the program of stock buy back. > 2)IBM's only growth is about 9% from its server segment. > > A very negative tone. > > > Tom Worley wrote: > > > > Big Blue recently seemed to have been acknowledged as having > > finally fallen off its throne as the #1 institutional favorite > > (altho would have thought its drop below 40 several years ago would > > have done that, and didn't) and was replaced by MSFT. Lately, the > > frequent rumors and stories about slowing growth, and possible > > earnings estimate cuts by analysts, appeared to confirm this. > > However, a fast scan of the earnings reports suggests to me that > > analysts may be slow to downgrade this one. Check for any upgrades > > or downgrades by major wirehouses before the open. If only positive > > news, then expect institutional dollars to flow into IBM today. > > (corrected my typo as well - bet, not beat, never beat IBM, it's > > too powerful) > > > > tom w > > ---------- > -- > GoldFish > "Every stock is a bad stock..." ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Michael R. Jeffers" Subject: [CANSLIM] Alex. Brown Dropped KNGT $5 - What, Me Worry? Date: 24 Apr 1997 19:50:49 Even though Tom thought the CANSLIM numbers were a bit weak, I thought the stock was OK. Then I see the below item: "KNIGHT TRANSPORTATION INC. (down 4 to 22-1/2 at 10:29am EDT)reported 1Q EPS of $0.21 vs $0.17 in the prior year period, on revenues of $21.3 mln vs $16.6 mln. Analysts' mean estimates were $0.21, according to First Call. (Reuters 04:55 PM ET 04/23/97) For the full text story, see http://www.merc.com/stories/cgi/story.cgi?id=2587656-088 Separately, Stephens Inc. downgraded KNIGHT to hold from buy. In a research report, Stephens said the company approached the firm's price target of 28. Also, Alex. Brown & Sons Inc. lowered Knight Transportation to buy from strong buy." I guess this is the result of the over 50% institutional ownership that was present when I bought the stock. I asked before, but I ask again. Other than DG, is there anywhere on the net we can get the numbers of institutional ownership? ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Cup-with-a-Handle Date: 24 Apr 1997 22:34:52 -0400 I believe I went on record some time ago indicating that COMS was a good value based situation, esp with the addition of USRX earnings. Still think so. Now will go on record saying the networking group bloodbath has ended, and is just starting with storage device stocks and groups. tom w ---------- > From: Craig A. Griffin > To: canslim@mail.xmission.com > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Cup-with-a-Handle > Date: Thursday, April 24, 1997 10:42 PM > > not a bottom fisher and would not buy COMS. I just wanted to say that it > does not look terrible. With a little luck it might continue it's recent > bounce here (it has been up 3 days in a row). So you might get a chance to > get out with a profit, or you might do fine holding it, I really can't > predict. It is just not a CANSLIM buy, that's all. It could still work ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Alex. Brown Dropped KNGT $5 - What, Me Worry? Date: 24 Apr 1997 23:02:17 -0400 For what it's worth, have seen a lot of stocks come back from a ratings cut due solely to a stock reaching a price target too fast. Often, another BD will come in with a new upgrade in a few weeks based on the new, lower current price and set an even higher target as a result of the latest earnings. Not a reason to buy, not a reason to hold, and definitely not a reason to short, just some info. tom w ---------- > From: Michael R. Jeffers > To: canslim@xmission.com > Subject: [CANSLIM] Alex. Brown Dropped KNGT $5 - What, Me Worry? > Date: Thursday, April 24, 1997 3:50 PM > > Even though Tom thought the CANSLIM numbers were a bit weak, I thought the > stock was OK. Then I see the below item: > > Separately, Stephens Inc. downgraded KNIGHT to hold from buy. In a research > report, Stephens said the company approached the firm's price target of 28. > Also, Alex. Brown & Sons Inc. lowered Knight Transportation to buy from > strong buy." > > I guess this is the result of the over 50% institutional ownership that was > present when I bought the stock. I asked before, but I ask again. Other > than DG, is there anywhere on the net we can get the numbers of > institutional ownership? > ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: GoldFish Subject: [CANSLIM] Is the correction over? Date: 24 Apr 1997 23:34:16 -0700 Tom: I don't know others in this gruop. But I have not logged in this group since Tuesday. As to the correction is over: It seems to be. stocks such as JNJ, MRK,INTC... have recovered from their 15% (or more) correction. On the other hand, many stocks are still under the water for example, CSCO, COMS, DBD, BGEN, KRB, CMB, SEG, SHBZ, WCOM are all 15% (or more) down from their peak. As you mentioned, people are still worry about the potential rate hike in May. I read it somewhere, if the long term bond yield is above 7% percent, many people will move their money into bond. Because for the rich people, a 7% state tax free return is as good as stock with less risk. The average stcok return is about 10% over the past 30 years (I think) which is consistent with the money making power of the Corp of America. From the chart of S&P 500, NYSE, and DJIA , it does look like the downward channel is broken for the big guys. The NASDAQ is still in the downward channel, although the downward momentum seems to slow down. For money to flow back to the NASDAQ, the NASDAQ has to turn upward and exceeding its peak. There is a big OVERHEAD SUPPLY, no? -- GoldFish "Every stock is a bad stock..." ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: GoldFish Subject: [CANSLIM] IBM 150 MAY call Date: 24 Apr 1997 23:39:57 -0700 Tom: In Ch. 12, William O'Neil said he does not think most investor should buy or sell options. (St. Peter Lynch said the same thing. I therefore never bother to understand how option works let along to trade option.) But you obviousely are playing with the option. Care to share your thinking process of buying IBM 150 may option with us? -- GoldFish "Every stock is a bad stock..." ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: GoldFish Subject: [CANSLIM] Institutional ownership info on the net Date: 24 Apr 1997 23:49:37 -0700 Dear Michael: Go to http://www.stocksmart.com/ you will be able to find the institutional ownership of a stock. you will be able to see :1) Top 50 Institutional holder, 2) Top mutual fund holder and 3)five percent ownership. However, the data is old (as 6/30/96). This is the best place I am aware of. -- GoldFish "Every stock is a bad stock..." Michael R. Jeffers wrote: > I asked before, but I ask again. Other > than DG, is there anywhere on the net we can get the numbers of > institutional ownership? ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Craig A. Griffin" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] IBM & End of the Correction Date: 25 Apr 1997 00:06:45 -0400 Tom, At 10:28 PM 4/24/97 -0400, you wrote: >I'm truly amazed. Last night and this morning, I posted several >predictions including a gap up on IBM, got one response disagreeing >with me. <..snip..> >The deafening silence here on what is going on with "M" amazes, >surprises and disappoints me. Actually I put together two responses to your posts late last night and had them bounced back by the net as an "invalid address". Said the heck with it and trashed them. They basicly just said "I agree" with some reasoning. The followthrough day on the S&P did occur as IBD stated and I consider that I buy signal. I do not expect the markets to turn back into a roaring bull anytime soon, but do think we now have an environment where some CANSLIM type stocks will be working. However, I agree that the big caps will continue to lead (there goes the S in Canslim, Shares Outstanding). But O'Neil himself, frequently picks stocks like MSFT, INTC, HD. It is just that in the right market environment, the really big money is to be made picking the PSFT's not long after they come public and before they get big. Those are the ones that can triple and quadruple in a year or two. And then double again the next year. I am no longer 100% cash in my CANSLIM accounts. And yes, I did buy IBM today for a day trade, thanks for mentioning it. I did agree with your gap up prediction last night. Probably should have bought calls, but didn't plan on it being a day trade. Once it started trading back in the 153-154 range and couldn't bounce back up to 156/157, I got out (I like to see them close at the top of their range on the day I buy, especially on non CANSLIM type buy, like IBM today in the middle of its base). So, maybe that big silence is agreement ... I can't really speak for anyone else. Regards, Craig ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Craig A. Griffin" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Networking Group Date: 25 Apr 1997 00:30:56 -0400 Tom, At 10:34 PM 4/24/97 -0400, you wrote: >I believe I went on record some time ago indicating that COMS was a >good value based situation, esp with the addition of USRX earnings. >Still think so. I agree - value does look compelling on COMS, just not a CANSLIM chart right now. Might be a great buy with a 1 or 2 year time horizon, especially if the market is overestimating how hard it will be for them to absorb their merger and duke it out with INTC, ROK, ASND, and CSCO. If the margins get pressured even more than expected, however, then all bets are off. I suspect we will not know for a couple of quarters. A rally/bounce over the next month or two would not surprise me as the market looks forward to earnings and tries to sort things out. >Now will go on record saying the networking group bloodbath has >ended, and is just starting with storage device stocks and groups. I also agree that the networkers look like they have found a bottom. It is a tentative one IMHO and I would not be surprised to see them retest it. However, re: the storage device stocks, I don't expect to see them getting clobbered in the same way that the networkers have. They do need to do some more work in their bases, but would be surprised to see them get knocked down out of the bottom of the base or have breakout failures the way the networkers have (PAIR, CSCO, ASND all had both). In fact I have stocks like WDC and INVX in my background watch list, waiting for them to finish forming out their bases and breakout. Hey I found something you said to disagree with, now that is a surprise! ;^) Regards, Craig ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] IBM & End of the Correction Date: 25 Apr 1997 00:28:34 -0400 Thanks for the response, Craig. Don't understand the problem with the address, haven't changed here in a year. I suspect that even WON may have to disregard "S", at least to some degree, in this mkt. tom w ---------- > From: Craig A. Griffin > To: canslim@mail.xmission.com > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] IBM & End of the Correction > Date: Friday, April 25, 1997 12:06 AM > > Actually I put together two responses to your posts late last night and had > them bounced back by the net as an "invalid address". Said the heck with it > continue to lead (there goes the S in Canslim, Shares Outstanding). But > O'Neil himself, frequently picks stocks like MSFT, INTC, HD. It is just ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] IBM 150 MAY call Date: 25 Apr 1997 00:37:59 -0400 If I had the capital, would have been buying tech stocks for the last six or so months and then writing out of the money calls on them whenever they moved up some. The premium is so high, the options specialists make the most unless the stock REALLY moves (like IBM today). Lacking capital, I pay the price and buy calls when I see the potential for a very short term, sharp move higher where I won't lose that much on time premium. Unfortunately, lately my time has been so limited and my risk tolerance so low that my trades have all been paper. Hope to spend some quality time overcoming that and salvage something out of this earnings cycle. I basically agree with WON on options, they are for the rare "investor". It's easier to lose money than make it, it's worse than penny stocks. But with the right ingredients, I have done well. Tougher now than '95, when I tripled in less than a year, mostly on options. But until this mkt stabilizes and shows consistent trends, it is a trader's mkt, and that plays into the options strategy. As far as IBM is concerned, I didn't get the chance to do a detailed study until last night, by then it was mostly too late. But what caught my eye, among other things, was the two weeks of almost continuous price increases on decent vol following a serious retreat. Maybe the insiders knew something, maybe the value investors were nibbling, but the bottom line was that the stock was in a group with a ridiculous RS and was clearly trending up. The pattern was obvious once you looked at it, all it needed was a reason for a spike, and with other earnings reports considered, suspected the latest report would be a good reason. tom w ---------- > From: GoldFish > To: canslim@mail.xmission.com > Subject: [CANSLIM] IBM 150 MAY call > Date: Friday, April 25, 1997 2:39 AM > > Tom: > > In Ch. 12, William O'Neil said he does not think most investor should > buy or sell options. (St. Peter Lynch said the same thing. I therefore > > But you obviousely are playing with the option. > Care to share your thinking process of buying IBM 150 may option with > us? ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Networking Group Date: 25 Apr 1997 00:50:08 -0400 Actually, I agree. The networking groups got clobbered esp hard because of timing. They were, without doubt, the most oversold tech group that I can think of. Now, like so many tech groups, they have that much more room to move back up. Yeah, they may test recent lows, but I don't think so, more likely to rally a ways, then test ability to rally further, base out (very briefly, a week or so), then rally again. I would be surprised to see many storage device stocks get hit from here on the same percent level. Most have already done a more orderly correction. Second, there is a major shift to greater storage capacity. computers with a single gig or less are last year's model, heavily discounted. Go to a computer store and try to find a 1 gig or less hard drive in inventory, I know, they aren't there. Trouble is, technology is advancing so fast that cos that aren't "leading edge" may be passed by even in a small and otherwise minor correction in this group. They won't go down so far right now, but by the time they can shift their production and mfr'ng process, they will still be left behind, trying to sell last year's inventory. tom w ---------- > From: Craig A. Griffin > To: canslim@mail.xmission.com > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Networking Group > Date: Friday, April 25, 1997 12:30 AM > > I agree - value does look compelling on COMS, just not a CANSLIM chart right > now. Might be a great buy with a 1 or 2 year time horizon, especially if > > >Now will go on record saying the networking group bloodbath has > >ended, and is just starting with storage device stocks and groups. > > I also agree that the networkers look like they have found a bottom. It is > a tentative one IMHO and I would not be surprised to see them retest it. > However, re: the storage device stocks, I don't expect to see them getting > clobbered in the same way that the networkers have. They do need to do some ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Luke Lang Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] IBM (was LL to UR graphs) Date: 24 Apr 1997 22:49:30 -0500 Tom, > > I'm truly amazed. Last night and this morning, I posted several > predictions including a gap up on IBM, got one response disagreeing > with me. I too wrote back but also got an invalid address. Maybe it was good that my message didn't get through because I was disagreeing with you. My friend told me that he was concerned about IBM's inflated EPS due to share buyback, slow growth in hardware, and decreasing margin. > I also stated > my opinion that the correction has ended, not one response back > either agreeing, disagreeing, challenging, or even asking for my > basis. ... Still, > NASDAQ ended up in the plus column slightly, and altho the Dow 30 > gave up 20 pts, the rest of the technicals for NYSE were neutral. I think the market action is rather bearish today. Both NASDAQ and NYSE gave up big gains. IBM was not able to lead a tech rally. I think this may be a good time to get out. > And again, not one comment, response, etc. > I made specific predictions on a stock, a day's trading, and on an > overall market trend. What does it take to get some discussion > going here? I might as well talk to the mirror in the morning while > shaving... Tom, I have a lot of respect for your market insight as well as deep appreciation for your willingness to share them. However, I am rather confused with what is appropriate for this forum. A while ago, you and maybe others were voicing displeasure with people that ask about stock XYZ without doing their CANSLIM homework. Now you name IBM, which is clearly not a CANSLIM stock, and complain people aren't discussing. I am not complaining about your IBM prediction. In fact, I like it. I think James add a lot to the group by naming interesting stocks that are not necessarily CANSLIM. If this is OK with everyone, then this forum might be even more interesting. To elaborate on the above point a little more, I benefitted from WFR today (up 10+%) more than I could have from IBM. I have been discussing WFR with my friends but not here because WFR is not CANSLIM. However, WFR seems to lag the chip and semi equipment stocks, both up and down. With most of the semi stocks having made major moves over the last year, it only makes sense that the demand for silicon wafers is/will be increasing. WFR has very little downside risk but lots of upward potential. I would like to see more discussion about stocks that may be non-CANSLIM but have some interesting story behind them. However, if this is not appropriate, then it's OK with me also. Just let me know so I don't get people upset here. > If the mkt has indeed > turned, shouldn't we be discussing or arguing about it, challenging > each other's opinion and basis? > The deafening silence here on what is going on with "M" amazes, > surprises and disappoints me. I don't think the market has turned. See above comment regarding today's market action. > Since my > work load continues to overwhelm me, I am now focusing on similiar > situations for next week so I can plan further ahead. I suspect > there will be a number of other charts, and situations, like IBM > out there in next week's earnings. You may want to consider MRVC. The CEO has preannounced 100% revenue growth and no slowdown in Europe and Japan, yet the stock hasn't moved. My mistake was not adding more shares around 19 a few days back. But then I really try hard not to average down. > > good luck, hope you figure it out > Thanks Tom. With your help, we will all figure it out together. Luke Lang ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: [CANSLIM] Pick of the day Date: 25 Apr 1997 08:06:00 -0400 Viasoft (VIAS) RS 84, EPS 96, a/d B, funds however indicated as 67% 1997 est at .55, up 53% (ends 6/30) Q1 - .09, Q2 - .15, Q3 (reported yesterday, expected .10 against year ago .07) - .17 chart - already in two week rally, last high slightly higher than prior high, after mkt trading on Thursday took it above this pt, yesterday's vol low, earnings report was after the close 1998 est at .95, up 73% Keep in mind that NYSE short position again a record. NASDAQ short position added nearly a billion shares last month, almost all on NMS stocks. tom w Any opinions are strictly my own and not that of my employer. My comments are based on a variety of sources and are intended strictly to assist and inform. In no way am I suggesting a buy, sell, or hold decision based on my comments or observations. I always urge an investor to do his or her own homework, and be sure the risk of the market can be tolerated and any losses accepted gracefully. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: David F. Cameron Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] IBM (was LL to UR graphs) Date: 25 Apr 1997 9:05:34 CDT > > I'm truly amazed. Last night and this morning, I posted several > predictions including a gap up on IBM, got one response disagreeing > with me. IBM gapped up 8 pts and then went on to be as much as up > 15 before closing up over 11. Not a single comment back from this > group with a well done on a controversial prediction. I also stated Ah. Tom, we just think SO highly of you that we expect such wonderful predictions ;-) Seriously, great call. I don't log in every day. This is my first login since I posted my first comments on your IBM pick on Wed. night. I'm not convinced we've bottomed. I can't muster a good argument other than there was no strength in the afternoon on Thurs. - but I'm waiting to see what happens today (Firday) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: pwahl@postoffice.worldnet.att.net Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Keep those good stock suggestions Coming Date: 25 Apr 1997 07:18:45 -0800 > From: GoldFish > I am buying COMS again. > , it is forming a cup and handle. > The volume at Today morning increase and the price has a break out to > $29.7. A short term bottom seems formed, based on the following > observation: the volume increased as the price increased and volume > decrease when the price dropped. > This is a gambling not an investing. > I just want to see how good is the so call cup-and-handle. I've posted this at least twice, so anyone who has been on this list for a while can skip the rest. But it seems to be a good idea to repeat it here, since I think this is a gross mis-application of the idea behind the cup and handle, and this might clear it up a bit. From the March 1995 issue of Tech. Analysis of stocks - "The cup of the pattern typically forms during intermediate-term market corrections and is usually three to six months in duration but can be as long as 12 months during bear market, or as short as 7 weeks during bull markets. The left side of the cup is a downtrend that corrects the previous uptrend. The stock price bottoms and begins to advance, forming the right side of the cup. "During formation of the right side of the cup, the stock becomes subject to profit-taking at its old highs - the beginning of the cup formation - from sellers who bought at the cup bottom. In addition, investors who bought the stock near its old highs on the left side of the cup are anxious to sell; the anticipated selling is referred to as overhead resistance." ... "The stock price should then consolidate, forming the handle of the cup pattern." "The handle sets the stage for the stock's breakout to new highs." "In searching for the pattern, O'Neil found that a stock should have risen by at least 30% prior to forming the pattern, and in many instances the stock may have doubled or tripled." Patrick Wahl ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Zoran Mitrovski Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] IBM 150 MAY call Date: 25 Apr 1997 10:34:33 -0400 (EDT) Tom wrote: > If I had the capital, would have been buying tech stocks for the > last six or so months and then writing out of the money calls on > them whenever they moved up some. The premium is so high, the > options specialists make the most unless the stock REALLY moves > (like IBM today). Lacking capital, I pay the price and buy calls > when I see the potential for a very short term, sharp move higher > where I won't lose that much on time premium. Unfortunately, lately > my time has been so limited and my risk tolerance so low that my > trades have all been paper. Hope to spend some quality time > overcoming that and salvage something out of this earnings cycle. Tom, I hope you don't mind the rookie, but be careful. From a psychological standopint trying to "salvage" a situation makes you much more prone to mistakes. The market is just too huge for me to start feeling bad about all the trades I could have done. I also think that you are abusing hindsight to make the potential past trades look more favorable than they actually have been. In your first sentence after the comma, I'd add "and if I had a time-travel machine to take me six months back". ;^) > I basically agree with WON on options, they are for the rare > "investor". It's easier to lose money than make it, it's worse than > penny stocks. But with the right ingredients, I have done well. > Tougher now than '95, when I tripled in less than a year, mostly on > options. Wow!! That is amazing! Tom, you ARE The Professor. Too bad Etrade thinks I am not experienced enough to grant me option trading capability, and Datek still doesn't offer them. I guess I'll have to stick with stocks for a while. ;^) > But until this mkt stabilizes and shows consistent trends, > it is a trader's mkt, and that plays into the options strategy. Absolutely right. > As far as IBM is concerned, I didn't get the chance to do a > detailed study until last night, by then it was mostly too late. > But what caught my eye, among other things, was the two weeks of > almost continuous price increases on decent vol following a serious > retreat. Maybe the insiders knew something, maybe the value > investors were nibbling, but the bottom line was that the stock was > in a group with a ridiculous RS and was clearly trending up. The > pattern was obvious once you looked at it, all it needed was a > reason for a spike, and with other earnings reports considered, > suspected the latest report would be a good reason. This is what I meant to say in my first paragraph. There has been a load of cases lately when a stock trends up from the lower line of the channel in expectation of earnings and then gets clobbered after bouncing off the upper line when the (good) earnings come out. ("Buy the rumor, sell the news"). The IBM was no exception in that sense BEFORE the news came out. It has been trending towards the recent (twice tested) resistance (upper box line) of 142. Like in the case of MSFT, two posibilities existed: The earnings would either shoot it out of the box, or bounce it down and off the upper line. MSFT did the shoot-up more gradualy, so there was time for people to jump in at around 105. IBM, on the other hand, appeared at 151 the next day, hence there was nothing much one could do at that point. You say you would have bought the IBM calls BEFORE the jump. I personally would not. I would just sit back with my fingers on the LONG/SHORT switch and let the events tell me what to do. You said you needed opinions and responses. There one for you. ;^) > tom worley Cheers, Zoran http://www.seas.rochester.edu:8080/ee/users/zmitrov/home.html ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: pwahl@postoffice.worldnet.att.net Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] IBM (was LL to UR graphs) Date: 25 Apr 1997 07:44:35 -0800 > From: "Tom Worley" > NASDAQ and possibly NYSE. They were both up over 1% for part of the > day, till interest hike fears set in again and profit taking > commenced, probably aided a little by program trading. Still, > NASDAQ ended up in the plus column slightly, and altho the Dow 30 > gave up 20 pts, the rest of the technicals for NYSE were neutral. > And again, not one comment, response, etc. Highs in the Dow were essentially made in the morning, and although IBM was up 11, the Dow lost 20 points, and I believe that those 11 points represent 30 dow points, so otherwise a pretty weak market, the advance decline number deteriorated from 11-6 positive early in the day to 12-11 negative. People seemed to sell into strength. The NASDAQ also sold off all day, with Intel unable to get moving on the IBM news. Bonds have had a countertrend rally, but seem to be heading back down. All in all, considering that an important company like IBM reported earnings that were at the top end of predictions, the market was unable to move higher on what should have been good news and I would not see this as a sign that the correction is over. The usual caveat applies - I don't know what I am talking about. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Johan Van Houtven Subject: [CANSLIM] Storage Device stocks and the Market Date: 25 Apr 1997 10:14:11 +0200 Tom, About COMS (USRX): Personally I'm not interested in a value based situation like this. And with INTC giving them a hard time in the networking sector, who know how COMS future is going to look like? So I'd rather try Vegas. (Keep in mind that I've been in Vegas 3 times and never ever gambled... B^) About the storage device stocks: You mean stocks like SEG, WDC, QNTM? If so, I noticed there A/D rating has gone from A to B to C and WDC even D. Now my question: Why do you expect a bloodbath in the storgae device stocks? The only reason I can come up with that would hurt this group a bit is price competition. IF I were going to do some value investing I'd be buying WDC now or in the short term, instead of COMS. Exactly the opposite of what you'd suggest to do. But don't worry I'm NOT going to buy on a VALUE based situation, but I'm just very curious why you expect a bloodbath in the storage device stocks. About the 'M' in CANSLIM: The markets are swinging between their 50 and 200 DMAs. I do not see anything to get really excited about yet. And the possible rate hike in May is comming closer. I think we can go one way or the other from here. (I'm also going on record with that last sentence. ;^) Hope I made you laugh.) Tom W. wrote: >I believe I went on record some time ago indicating that COMS was a >good value based situation, esp with the addition of USRX earnings. >Still think so. >Now will go on record saying the networking group bloodbath has >ended, and is just starting with storage device stocks and groups. --- Johan Van Houtven ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Hemant Rotithor Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Networking Group Date: 25 Apr 1997 10:43:47 -0400 I seriously doubt that networking group will come into favor until Cisco reports on May 6 and that the downside for them is complete. Even after they report, unless they soundly beat the estimates people will not be beleivers, so I expect more downside. -- Disclaimer: Opinions expressed in this document are those of the author. Digital Equipment Corp., 110 Spit Brook Rd, ZKO2-3/N30, Nashua, NH 03062 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Hemant Rotithor Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Cup-with-a-Handle Date: 25 Apr 1997 10:53:57 -0400 Would it be fair to say that for COMS would need have to be a "Grand Canyon with a handle" rather than a cup with a handle to be a useful CANSLIM pattern? :-) -- Disclaimer: Opinions expressed in this document are those of the author. Digital Equipment Corp., 110 Spit Brook Rd, ZKO2-3/N30, Nashua, NH 03062 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Craig Griffin Subject: [CANSLIM] Group Guidelines (was IBM, was LL to UR) Date: 25 Apr 1997 12:12:38 -0400 Luke, Outstanding post! Thank you. See below. At 10:49 PM 4/24/97 -0500, you wrote: > ... I am not complaining about your IBM prediction. In fact, >I like it. I think James add a lot to the group by naming interesting >stocks that are not necessarily CANSLIM. If this is OK with everyone, >then this forum might be even more interesting. I agree, I think no stock should be off limits. My opinion is that we should simply attempt to discuss each situation based on CANSLIM parameters. Just so it does not fit 1 or 2 or 3 of them doesn't mean we should "throw the baby out with the bathwater". A few years ago in a workshop, someone asked David Ryan how he could be buying biotechs and using them for examples. The questioner said they had no 5 year or 1 year earnings and therefore were not CANSLIM. Ryan said he disagreed and DID consider them Canslim because they were acting like Canslim stocks in all ways except earnings: they were in a leading group (biotechs were hot then), they were responding to News, they had small number of Shares outstanding, there was strong Leadership in the groups, the Institutions were moving in, and the Market was strong. So, based on all the other factors, he was unwilling to bypass the group, but he was AWARE that he was making allowances and what those allowances were as regards the CANSLIM factors. > >To elaborate on the above point a little more, I benefitted from >WFR today (up 10+%) more than I could have from IBM. My point above says, yes, WFR is Canslim per Ryan's definition and could be discussed here. And the News is that it is rallying to follow the Semi Equipment as you mentioned. > ... I would like to see more discussion >about stocks that may be non-CANSLIM but have some interesting story >behind them. However, if this is not appropriate, then it's OK with >me also. I vote appropriate :) . >I don't think the market has turned. See above comment regarding >today's market action. We will let the market tell us as always, but my expectation is for more shakeout action now and an overall upwards trend over time. I believe major damage has been done. It is still very dicey out there. The amazing thing, to me, is that based on all the opinions expressed on this list, I feel more "in sync" with the current market situation. >But then I really try hard not to average down. Me too, but I will do it in certain clear situations (ie. after the breakout as the stock tests support at the top of the old base ala ANN this week). >Thanks Tom. With your help, we will all figure it out together. As I said, outstanding post, Luke. Regards, Craig ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Jonathan Polito - Lucent ASCC Subject: [CANSLIM] Some attractive candidates Date: 25 Apr 1997 13:30:27 -0400 Here are some picks for your perusal. I did some TA scans and filtering for some potential CANSLIM candidates. Sorry I didn't get the Group Rank on the NYSE stocks (my Mon paper got recycled). These stocks have been strong for a while and seem to have pretty decent fundamentals and prospects. Ticker EPS/RS/AD/GR Name CPWR 94/97/A/E CompuWare ECP 94/90/B Central Newspaper PROP 80/96/B/B Production Operators ROST 91/97/A/A Ross Stores RXR 93/96/B Revco SMOD 97/98/B/B Smart Modular Tech Looks very strong SWFT 97/93/B/A Swift Transportation Profiled in IBD Thur, Companies in the News UHS 91/94/B Universal Health Svc WWW 93/96/A Wolverine World Wide ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Hemant Rotithor Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Some attractive candidates Date: 25 Apr 1997 16:54:46 -0400 Jonathan Polito - Lucent ASCC wrote: > > Here are some picks for your perusal. I did some TA scans and > filtering for some potential CANSLIM candidates. Sorry I didn't get > the Group Rank on the NYSE stocks (my Mon paper got recycled). > > These stocks have been strong for a while and seem to have pretty > decent fundamentals and prospects. > > Ticker EPS/RS/AD/GR Name > CPWR 94/97/A/E CompuWare > > ECP 94/90/B Central Newspaper > > PROP 80/96/B/B Production Operators > > ROST 91/97/A/A Ross Stores > > RXR 93/96/B Revco > > SMOD 97/98/B/B Smart Modular Tech > Looks very strong > > SWFT 97/93/B/A Swift Transportation > Profiled in IBD Thur, Companies in the News > > UHS 91/94/B Universal Health Svc > > WWW 93/96/A Wolverine World Wide Many of these seem to have good charts, also Tom's pick VIAS looks good. Do you use quotes plus CANSLIM scan or is it something else? Looks like it is doing a good job at finding good charts, some of them seem to fit James/Brenda style. I will watch them but I am not very optimistic about the market next week so may not presently buy for breakouts unless very convinced. Somehow, my mind is convinced that since we had no news this week and only good earning news were out, the performance in this week is a near term upperbound and we are more likely to do worse in forth coming weeks where the good earning news are out of the way and potentially harmful economic news awaiting. So I don't quite think we will rally solidly from here. But I have been wrong often. -- Disclaimer: Opinions expressed in this document are those of the author. Digital Equipment Corp., 110 Spit Brook Rd, ZKO2-3/N30, Nashua, NH 03062 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: rks@ticc.com (R.K. Stephenson) Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] New virus Date: 25 Apr 1997 15:42:53 -0700 Zoran M. wrote: >Just got back from a great weekend in NYC. >On viruses, just got this hot over the wire: >If you receive an e-mail with a subject of "Badtimes," delete it immediately >WITHOUT reading it. This is the most dangerous Email virus yet. It will [many nasty viral symptoms deleted] >Badtimes will make you fall in love with a penguin. It will give you >nightmares about circus midgets. It will pour sugar in your gas tank and >shave off both your eyebrows while dating your current boyfriend/girlfriend >behind your back and billing the dinner and hotel room to your Visa card. >It moves your car randomly around parking lots so you can't find it. It will >kick your dog. I've had about half of these happen to me this week (even though I've been out of town and haven't read my e-mail) so it looks like this one acts even before you read it. The reason I wrote, tho, is to ask if you know when I can expect the rest of the symptoms to hit. I'm thinking about getting a dog and want to wait until it is safe... -- R.K. Stephenson rks@ticc.com ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: PPNewell@aol.com Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] IBM 150 MAY call Date: 25 Apr 1997 19:59:47 -0400 (EDT) In a message dated 97-04-25 19:07:57 EDT, you write: << > I basically agree with WON on options, they are for the rare > "investor". It's easier to lose money than make it, it's worse than >> I knew such an investor, he used to read the tape at lunch and could find stocks ready to move up. Only problem was he didn't understand the going down part. Being in options in 87 left him with 25k vs 0 which is what happened to him in 84. Seems like most Canslim stocks don't have options. If you are as certian as WON says you should be they would be a good bet for a 4 mo option anyhow. Peter Newell ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Jonathan Polito - Lucent ASCC Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Some attractive candidates Date: 25 Apr 1997 20:33:49 -0400 >>>>> "Hemant" == Hemant Rotithor writes: Hemant> looks good. Do you use quotes plus CANSLIM scan or is it Hemant> something else? Looks like it is doing a good job at finding Hemant> good charts, some of them seem to fit James/Brenda style. I use QuotesPlus as my data provider and MetaStock has my TA package (along with Quotes+). I actually scanned for stocks making 52 week highs on good volume and then filtered out the volatile ones. I then took that list and looked for good CANSLIM numbers. Given the current market I thought I'd look for nice, basically "immune" stocks. I should take a look at their Alpha/Beta just to get an idea... Given the market, and my intuition, I thought it interesting that I arrived at James-like picks. Hemant> I will watch them but I am not very optimistic about the Hemant> market next week so may not presently buy for breakouts unless Hemant> very convinced. My stance is this: We're in an unfavorable risk/reward market. So far, the duration hasn't been that long, but we are at least in a correction with some parts of the market in a bear-mode. What is going to make this market different form past ones is the massive amount of program and institutional trading. So the volatility will be higher and possibly a shorter cycle. While the economy is currently good, labor is definitely tightening - computer people are basically writing their own ticket, factory workers are brave enough to strike....I don't see the Fed easing up anytime soon, I don't see earnings powering us out. So what is left? I think you can successfully trade this market, or take long term positions (beaten up techs a la COMS, CSCO, ORCL, SUNW) and wait...or possibly look for the few stocks that are "immune" for the time being. At least from a Dow Theory perspective, if the Transportation Index starts falling good - watch out! -- Jonathan. Jonathan Polito - jepolito@lucent.com Lucent Technologies - Bell Labs Innovations 2000 Regency Pky, Ste. 500, Cary, NC 27511 (919)380-4585 voice / (919)380-4640 fax ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Zoran Mitrovski Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] New virus Date: 25 Apr 1997 20:55:05 -0400 (EDT) R.K. Stephenson (what does "R" stand for?) wrote: > Zoran M. wrote: > >Just got back from a great weekend in NYC. > >On viruses, just got this hot over the wire: > >If you receive an e-mail with a subject of "Badtimes," delete it immediately > >WITHOUT reading it. This is the most dangerous Email virus yet. It will > [many nasty viral symptoms deleted] > >Badtimes will make you fall in love with a penguin. It will give you > >nightmares about circus midgets. It will pour sugar in your gas tank and > >shave off both your eyebrows while dating your current boyfriend/girlfriend > >behind your back and billing the dinner and hotel room to your Visa card. > >It moves your car randomly around parking lots so you can't find it. It will > >kick your dog. > > I've had about half of these happen to me this week (even though I've > been out of town and haven't read my e-mail) so it looks like this one > acts even before you read it. It's warped, man. There have been reports that it often disregards common cause-effect relationships thus being able to wreak havoc even BEFORE you make the mistake. It appears that you are pretty much doomed cause you are bound to read it at some point in the future. I hope that all others that have disregarded my warning will pay more attention instead of dumping it in the trash before reading it. > The reason I wrote, tho, is to ask if you know when I can expect the > rest of the symptoms to hit. I'm thinking about getting a dog and want > to wait until it is safe... Remember, you gotta watch out constantly. You are never safe with Badtimes. Any virus capable of seducing a dead grandmother deserves utmost alertness. > -- > R.K. Stephenson > rks@ticc.com Cheers, Zoran http://www.seas.rochester.edu:8080/ee/users/zmitrov/home.html ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "John Iding" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] IBM (was LL to UR graphs) Date: 25 Apr 1997 19:08:26 -0700 You may have answered your own question here Tom ---------- > From: Tom Worley > To: canslim@mail.xmission.com > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] IBM (was LL to UR graphs) > Date: Thursday, April 24, 1997 7:28 PM > > I'm truly amazed. Last night and this morning, I posted several > predictions including a gap up on IBM, got one response disagreeing > with me. IBM gapped up 8 pts and then went on to be as much as up I might as well talk to the mirror in the morning while > shaving, at least on those mornings I bother to shave! > Sadly, I was too busy at work yesterday to do my homework before > the close. > tom w > My point ... we are probably all interested but under lots of work stress .. you should not take it personally ... John ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Storage Device stocks and the Market Date: 25 Apr 1997 22:11:18 -0400 You raise a couple of good points, will try to answer succiently. The decline in the a/d nrs on several good storage device stocks was part of my reasoning, even greater was stories of growth slowing to the point that earnings estimates may start getting cut. The most recent parallel analogy for this is the networking groups, before that the chip industry once capacity caught up to demand. Should this come to pass, then PEs are still high with plenty of room for decline. Unless we are looking at sig different charts (I am using the ones from DG Online which should be the same as the next morning's IBD), the major indexes I look at all appear to be doing 50dma bounces (part of my reasoning for the end of the correction). I haven't seen any that came even close to the 200dma. Then again, I am not looking at indexes like Utilities, Trans, etc. About the only time I pay serious attention to them is when I have major inconsistencies to try and explain to myself in the ones like NYSE, Dow 30, NASDAQ, IBD 6000, SPX, OEX. tom w ---------- > From: Johan Van Houtven > To: canslim@mail.xmission.com > Subject: [CANSLIM] Storage Device stocks and the Market > Date: Friday, April 25, 1997 4:14 AM > > About the storage device stocks: You mean stocks like SEG, WDC, QNTM? > If so, I noticed there A/D rating has gone from A to B to C and WDC even D. > > Now my question: Why do you expect a bloodbath in the storgae device > stocks? The only reason I can come up with that would hurt this group a bit > is price competition. > > About the 'M' in CANSLIM: > > The markets are swinging between their 50 and 200 DMAs. I do not see ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Brenda" Subject: [CANSLIM] Indexes Date: 25 Apr 1997 22:14:49 -0500 I follow several indexes to help me with "M". I also use the daily lows. I also use my own self-developed system. My system flashed a STRONG warning tonight. Of course, we are all well aware what the daily lows have been lately. I am most happy when the daily lows each day are under 30. When they go over 40 for five days in a row I get pretty concerned. How long since we have had a day with daily lows under 40? I remember a couple of 90 days. Now for the indexes. I have always found it amusing when the commentators talk about divergences. They always want to look at it as bad. To me it's the ole is the glass half full or half empty. The divergence "could" mean that although things are not champagne and caviar, they are not that bad. Well, tonight when I went to see why MY indicator was giving such a reading here is what I found. The transport DJ-20 has not been participating in this correction type thing much at all. However, it has now had two fairly steep down days for the average. Now to the good stuff- or bad stuff - The S&P Midcap 400 (MID--X for TC2000 users) is at a CRUCIAL support level RIGHT NOW and is currently headed south. The S&P 500 (SP-500) has already broken an initial support level, is at another and within a very, very few points of an extremely crucial support level and it's current direction is down. The NASDAQ Composite Index (COMPQX) is at an extremely crucial support level right now and it's current "inertia" is down. The Dow Jones 30 (DJ-30) is all but at the bottom of support point having already broken through the top part of a support level and its current direction is down. Well, from the way I viewed the graphs we now do not have a divergence and the picture is not pretty. This coming week? One report after the other. This past week? Almost the best earning surprises for this period ever and the market not only doesn't go up, it doesn't hold! Getting the picture that I have. In my humble opinion Monday is a crucial day. What do you think will be the close? Big Rally, Hold, A "little" down, or the dreaded BIG DOWN day? Each of you stick your neck out there on the ole proverbial chopping block and make your call. James ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] IBM 150 MAY call Date: 25 Apr 1997 23:28:52 -0400 By "salvage the situation" I don't mean trying to make up for what has gone before, you are correct that is unwise. I simply mean that earnings cycles only come along for once in every three months, and last at their peak only about two weeks, and I had several chances to make money and didn't. The remaining opportunities are now limited, and must see if any remain. Right now, from stocks mentioned here yesterday and today, my own lists, some from James, new highs on Friday, stocks due to report next week, old favorites, etc i figure I got about 500 to study this weekend (DG Online don't fail me now) plus cram for my Options Principal license, run some errands, mow the lawn, wash the car, have some fun??, get a life??, and a few more lists I will pull down from DG just to round out the weekend, so must be able to find a few that can gap up dramatically next week despite or with the assistance of "M". You might try applying just for options approval to do covered calls, it is a very conservative strategy, even allowed in retirement accts. Once experienced there, then you may get approval to do buys of calls and puts (risk limited to your "wager") and gain further experience. I discourage people doing naked (selling) puts and calls with one exception. Say you want to buy a stock currently trading at 32, but don't want to pay more than 30. You can write (sell) a naked 30 put and take in the premium. If the stock backs off below 30, then you may end up owning it at 30 minus the premium you took in, so you still did better than your original limit. If it remains over 30, you never get to own it (but wouldn't have anyway with your 30 limit) but still made something off it (the premium you took in from selling the put once it expires out of the money). Would like to claim I developed this strategy all on my own with years of investing and as a broker, but truth is my friend Jacques from Canada brought this to my attention (you see him on my cc: line periodically for mkt comments and the like). And I'm going to be the Options Principal for my firm, scary!! As far as stocks with good earnings getting clobbered, I have commented on this several times. With IBM, I felt the pattern was finally going to change. Wish I could quantify why I thought so, but can't. Was entirely subjective and instinctive. I'm like that, there are times when I go on gut instinct, that was one of them. My call on the correction having ended was another. My calls on Fed hikes is far more quantitative and easier to explain. Wish I was able to move this ability more into a quantitative arena but no joy so far. Just glad I didn't pick FRTE as my "pick of the day", and again can't tell why I didn't. Year ago it did .05/share, estimate was for .10/share, reported after the close doing .14/share, sounds good so far. Did .34 for year, est was for .30, up from 11 cent loss prior year. Chart however showed a long downtrend, which may be why I shied away, RS of 2 and a/d of E didn't help. Also funds already owned 37% on an 11 million share issue. Stock closed at 16, minutes before today's opening, Morgan Stanley cut it from Outperform to Hold (their word for SELL, SELL, SELL!!!!) Opened at 12.5, promptly slammed to 8 (see, James is right, you would be surprised how many stocks lose around 50% in a day), major new low, traded heavy vol including many institutional sized blocks (so goes that 37% funds holding, maybe mostly all held at Morgan by chance?). Of course, rest of the original "ratings cut by Morgan" doesn't hit the tape till nearly 1:30PM reporting an analyst's opinion at Morgan that they will have to invest heavily in addl sales force due to high turnover and growing sales without sufficient personnel to maintain, also noted sales head count behind due "management bandwidth", whatever the hell that is supposed to mean. He also cut earnings estimates from 45 cents to 30 for this year. And who said analysts follow the pack? Oops, think that was me! Course also said they also want to be the one who jumps out in front and makes a name by leading the pack (eg Garzarelli). Last I looked, had already traded over 5.7 million shares (lets see, 37% of 11 million shares .....) and was still going up in vol and back down to lows of the day. This is one I will follow for a while, as well as do some homework on this weekend, solely for the learning benefit. Also, since I previously cleared thru M/S, have my suspicions on this one and want to see what the future holds. Don't rule out some upgrades next week or so by other wirehouses due solely the low price and oversold condition. Oughta at least have one decent "dead cat bounce" in it. So I was instinctively right on IBM, and on FRTE. Both hard to explain, which alone means they were not for any but the experienced, and probably not for most of them either even if high risk takers. Now, if I had just thought to buy puts on FRTE .... tom w ---------- > From: Zoran Mitrovski > To: canslim@mail.xmission.com > Cc: Zoran Mitrovski > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] IBM 150 MAY call > Date: Friday, April 25, 1997 10:34 AM > > > trades have all been paper. Hope to spend some quality time > > overcoming that and salvage something out of this earnings cycle. > > Tom, I hope you don't mind the rookie, but be careful. From a > psychological standopint trying to "salvage" a situation makes > you much more prone to mistakes. The market is just too huge > Too bad Etrade thinks I am not experienced enough to grant me > option trading capability, and Datek still doesn't offer them. > > This is what I meant to say in my first paragraph. There has been a > load of cases lately when a stock trends up from the lower line > of the channel in expectation of earnings and then gets clobbered > after bouncing off the upper line when the (good) earnings come out. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] IBM 150 MAY call Date: 25 Apr 1997 23:35:19 -0400 Actually, I find that most stocks that meet the bulk of CANSLIM criteria do have options available. I have seen a number of recent IPO cos getting options within only several months of going public. Depends a lot on liquidity, price, price performance, etc. On the other hand, buying a four month option means either paying a real high premium (on a tech stock can easily and often cost you $10 per contract for one slightly in or out of the money), or buying out of the money by $5 or so and still paying around $5 a contract. I tend to buy tech stock options only about two months out, and buy looking for a specific time related event such as earnings due. I try to wait for a short pullback to lessen the premium, often this allows me to buy a lower strike (if buying calls) for the same money I budgeted. I also severely limit my dollar exposure. Rarely will I put more than about $1500 into a single position on options, and if I am right will usually sell half or all when the position is worth $4500 or more. tom w ---------- > From: PPNewell@aol.com > To: canslim@mail.xmission.com > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] IBM 150 MAY call > Date: Friday, April 25, 1997 7:59 PM > > > Seems like most Canslim stocks don't have options. If you are as certian as > WON says you should be they would be a good bet for a 4 mo option anyhow. > > Peter Newell > ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Brenda" Subject: [CANSLIM] Fw: Indexes Date: 25 Apr 1997 23:08:28 -0500 If this goes out twice, I'm sorry. Sent it HOURS ago and have not had it post to me yet. Here goes again- ---------- > From: Brenda > To: canslim > Subject: Indexes > Date: Friday, April 25, 1997 10:14 PM > > I follow several indexes to help me with "M". I also use the daily lows. I > also use my own self-developed system. My system flashed a STRONG warning > tonight. Of course, we are all well aware what the daily lows have been > lately. I am most happy when the daily lows each day are under 30. When > they go over 40 for five days in a row I get pretty concerned. How long > since we have had a day with daily lows under 40? I remember a couple of 90 > days. Now for the indexes. I have always found it amusing when the > commentators talk about divergences. They always want to look at it as bad. > To me it's the ole is the glass half full or half empty. The divergence > "could" mean that although things are not champagne and caviar, they are > not that bad. Well, tonight when I went to see why MY indicator was giving > such a reading here is what I found. The transport DJ-20 has not been > participating in this correction type thing much at all. However, it has > now had two fairly steep down days for the average. Now to the good stuff- > or bad stuff - The S&P Midcap 400 (MID--X for TC2000 users) is at a CRUCIAL > support level RIGHT NOW and is currently headed south. The S&P 500 (SP-500) > has already broken an initial support level, is at another and within a > very, very few points of an extremely crucial support level and it's > current direction is down. The NASDAQ Composite Index (COMPQX) is at an > extremely crucial support level right now and it's current "inertia" is > down. The Dow Jones 30 (DJ-30) is all but at the bottom of support point > having already broken through the top part of a support level and its > current direction is down. Well, from the way I viewed the graphs we now do > not have a divergence and the picture is not pretty. This coming week? One > report after the other. This past week? Almost the best earning surprises > for this period ever and the market not only doesn't go up, it doesn't > hold! Getting the picture that I have. In my humble opinion Monday is a > crucial day. What do you think will be the close? Big Rally, Hold, A > "little" down, or the dreaded BIG DOWN day? Each of you stick your neck out > there on the ole proverbial chopping block and make your call. > James ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Group Guidelines (was IBM, was LL to UR) Date: 25 Apr 1997 23:55:20 -0400 Finding perfect CANSLIM candidates in this kinda mkt near impossible. If you don't compromise (and tighten your stops accordingly), then you have little choice but to just go to cash and forget the mkt for several months. Likewise, with so many great and growing cos very oversold, mostly techs, there are many opportunities for short term oriented trading which, if the mkt stablizes, can turn into nice long term holds. tom w ---------- > From: Craig Griffin > To: canslim@mail.xmission.com > Subject: [CANSLIM] Group Guidelines (was IBM, was LL to UR) > Date: Friday, April 25, 1997 12:12 PM > > I agree, I think no stock should be off limits. My opinion is that we > should simply attempt to discuss each situation based on CANSLIM parameters. > Just so it does not fit 1 or 2 or 3 of them doesn't mean we should "throw > the baby out with the bathwater". A few years ago in a workshop, someone > asked David Ryan how he could be buying biotechs and using them for > Market was strong. So, based on all the other factors, he was unwilling to > bypass the group, but he was AWARE that he was making allowances and what > those allowances were as regards the CANSLIM factors. > > >To elaborate on the above point a little more, I benefitted from > >WFR today (up 10+%) more than I could have from IBM. > ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] IBM (was LL to UR graphs) Date: 26 Apr 1997 00:03:52 -0400 I agree that there is no clear indication, and concensus probably is more to the downside than up. I'm trying to emulate my hero Elaine, and be a leader and call it like I see it. Frankly, I am probably skating on thin ice, even here in Florida, and so far mkt not supporting my view. But it will take weeks, if not months, for me to know if I read it right or not. I would certainly hope no one jumps into the mkt because of my comments, my goal is to alert all to one man's opinion and make every one stop and examine and think for themselves. I actually like being a lone wolf, OK I admit it, I like showing off when I'm right and am immune to pain and shame when I am terribly wrong (don't forget I'm an ex broker, we are notorious for not having feelings). What I am trying mostly to do is alert our group to a different view so they start paying attention to some of the more subtle things (like IBM gapping up when all other great cos with great earnings collapsed) that are happening that suggest to me from past experience that the mkt may be turning. If you wait till the trend is clear and obvious and well established, you have aleady missed out on a sig part of the move, esp on the oversold techs. And if the trend turns out to be short term due rate hike fears, time is limited to make money. tom w ---------- > From: David F. Cameron > To: canslim@mail.xmission.com > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] IBM (was LL to UR graphs) > Date: Friday, April 25, 1997 10:05 AM > > I'm not convinced we've bottomed. I can't muster a good argument > other than there was no strength in the afternoon on Thurs. - but > I'm waiting to see what happens today (Firday) > > ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] IBM (was LL to UR graphs) Date: 26 Apr 1997 00:05:10 -0400 Good summary, wish I could disagree, but your comments are valid. Still think we may be at a turning point short term at least. tom w ---------- > From: pwahl@postoffice.worldnet.att.net > To: canslim@mail.xmission.com > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] IBM (was LL to UR graphs) > Date: Friday, April 25, 1997 11:44 AM > > > From: "Tom Worley" > > > NASDAQ and possibly NYSE. They were both up over 1% for part of the > > day, till interest hike fears set in again and profit taking > > commenced, probably aided a little by program trading. Still, > > NASDAQ ended up in the plus column slightly, and altho the Dow 30 > > gave up 20 pts, the rest of the technicals for NYSE were neutral. > > And again, not one comment, response, etc. > > Highs in the Dow were essentially made in the morning, and although > IBM was up 11, the Dow lost 20 points, and I believe that those 11 > points represent 30 dow points, so otherwise a pretty weak market, > the advance decline number deteriorated from 11-6 positive early in > the day to 12-11 negative. People seemed to sell into strength. The > NASDAQ also sold off all day, with Intel unable to get moving on the > IBM news. Bonds have had a countertrend rally, but seem to be > heading back down. All in all, considering that an important company > like IBM reported earnings that were at the top end of predictions, > the market was unable to move higher on what should have been good > news and I would not see this as a sign that the correction is over. > > The usual caveat applies - I don't know what I am talking about. > > > ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] IBM (was LL to UR graphs) Date: 26 Apr 1997 00:26:33 -0400 Thought I still had the IBM chart I worked from here, but apparently left it at work, so this all from off the top of my head (and as a warning I have a flattop, so good base but short). As I have mentioned both tonight and prior, I don't hold out for "perfect" CANSLIM charts except in a near perfect mkt where a bull trend is blatantly obvious even to the novice. In a sloppy mkt such as we have now, I look for stocks that show as many as possible CANSLIM criteria, but mostly look at the charts. Good formations, even with overhead resistance, catch my eye. I am also looking more for value (e.g. looking for oversold "good cos" than I would normally). IBM fit this parameter. It also showed two weeks of consistent uptrend, even tho this did not match mkt conditions, in fact went counter to the trend, suggesting emerging leadership. It had very good RS in a group with terrible RS, but then several other good names in group also had great RS, another signal of something going on in early stage. It had poor earnings growth for cur year, but fantastic growth for next. It had already made big correction, fueled by both mkt conditions (some caused by IBM itself, so self fulfilling) and rumors of growth slowing. It had a surprisingly low funds percent (13% if I remember right, which struct me as REALLY LOW for BIG BLUE! even with all the rumors). I had already seen a nr of computer mfrs report showing excellent growth. Granted most were PC makers, but I still expected to see that carry over into the mainframe group. Finally, and most importantly, there was a gut feeling they would blow away estimates (which I suspected were unduly low due analysts listening to the rumors of growth slowing). By the time I actually posted my thoughts, the earnings report was already out so my "gut" portion was already proven, and I relied on the more technical parts of what I was seeing. As far as I was concerned, IBM was a legitimate CANSLIM candidate except to a true purist CANSLIM. Posting my comments was in part a test of my read on it, partly showing off, and mostly trying to test my views with feedback and challenges since, if I was right, and I was, it represented a major turn in the overall mkt worth paying attention to. Thus, my disappointment at the lack of response. Yeah, I was right, but I knew when I posted that I had already missed my chance to make good money on it by failing to buy the calls when I intended. I was then and remain now more interested and concerned in what will happen next week and next month and where I can find similiar shots at profits. tom w ---------- > From: Luke Lang > To: canslim@mail.xmission.com > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] IBM (was LL to UR graphs) > Date: Thursday, April 24, 1997 11:49 PM > > confused with what is appropriate for this forum. A while ago, you > and maybe others were voicing displeasure with people that ask about > stock XYZ without doing their CANSLIM homework. Now you name IBM, > which is clearly not a CANSLIM stock, and complain people aren't ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Craig Griffin Subject: [CANSLIM] Group Guidelines (was IBM, was LL to UR) Date: 25 Apr 1997 12:12:38 -0400 Luke, Outstanding post! Thank you. See below. At 10:49 PM 4/24/97 -0500, you wrote: > ... I am not complaining about your IBM prediction. In fact, >I like it. I think James add a lot to the group by naming interesting >stocks that are not necessarily CANSLIM. If this is OK with everyone, >then this forum might be even more interesting. I agree, I think no stock should be off limits. My opinion is that we should simply attempt to discuss each situation based on CANSLIM parameters. Just so it does not fit 1 or 2 or 3 of them doesn't mean we should "throw the baby out with the bathwater". A few years ago in a workshop, someone asked David Ryan how he could be buying biotechs and using them for examples. The questioner said they had no 5 year or 1 year earnings and therefore were not CANSLIM. Ryan said he disagreed and DID consider them Canslim because they were acting like Canslim stocks in all ways except earnings: they were in a leading group (biotechs were hot then), they were responding to News, they had small number of Shares outstanding, there was strong Leadership in the groups, the Institutions were moving in, and the Market was strong. So, based on all the other factors, he was unwilling to bypass the group, but he was AWARE that he was making allowances and what those allowances were as regards the CANSLIM factors. > >To elaborate on the above point a little more, I benefitted from >WFR today (up 10+%) more than I could have from IBM. My point above says, yes, WFR is Canslim per Ryan's definition and could be discussed here. And the News is that it is rallying to follow the Semi Equipment as you mentioned. > ... I would like to see more discussion >about stocks that may be non-CANSLIM but have some interesting story >behind them. However, if this is not appropriate, then it's OK with >me also. I vote appropriate :) . >I don't think the market has turned. See above comment regarding >today's market action. We will let the market tell us as always, but my expectation is for more shakeout action now and an overall upwards trend over time. I believe major damage has been done. It is still very dicey out there. The amazing thing, to me, is that based on all the opinions expressed on this list, I feel more "in sync" with the current market situation. >But then I really try hard not to average down. Me too, but I will do it in certain clear situations (ie. after the breakout as the stock tests support at the top of the old base ala ANN this week). >Thanks Tom. With your help, we will all figure it out together. As I said, outstanding post, Luke. Regards, Craig ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: GoldFish Subject: [CANSLIM] Weekly update on Jame's 4/4/97 stock picks Date: 26 Apr 1997 15:07:53 -0700 Hi Folks: Here it is- Current Paid Gain ASTSF $37 $34 $3.00 +8.82% GDYS $17 3/4 $23 5/8 -$5.88 -24.87% MLHR $28 7/8 $35.56 -$6.69 -18.80% PSUN $29 3/8 $34 -$4.62 -13.60% SRR $13 3/4 $15 1/4 -$1.50 -9.84% TUES $26 1/4 $33 -$6.75 -20.45% Total -$22.44 -12.79% Note: Except ASTSF, I think we should have out of these stocks now according to William O'Neil's 7% (8%) stop rule. I'll stop this exercise. In other word, I will not post it any more. -- GoldFish "Life is a process..." ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Brenda" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Weekly update on Jame's 4/4/97 stock picks Date: 26 Apr 1997 14:56:06 -0500 Just as a footnote had you used a 15% stop loss on each of the stocks you would out of all except ASTSF. You would currently have a NET down 6.7% - The stocks named 04/18 (SEWY, ASTSF, MWL, SFDS and DS) all still alive, up 2.8% and four out of five UP in "this market". The only one down is MWL at down 3.7%. To the best of my memory, of course it is getting old and tired, the only one of the group that was spoken of favorably here on this discussion group. Tom tells me SFDS is splitting 4/3. Was down pretty good Friday and closed strong. Sounds like something you would read in a horse racing program. Maybe, should try that approach. Who's the best handicaper? Have a good week-end. James ---------- > From: GoldFish > To: canslim@xmission.com > Subject: [CANSLIM] Weekly update on Jame's 4/4/97 stock picks > Date: Saturday, April 26, 1997 5:07 PM > > Hi Folks: > > Here it is- > Current Paid Gain > ASTSF $37 $34 $3.00 +8.82% > GDYS $17 3/4 $23 5/8 -$5.88 -24.87% > MLHR $28 7/8 $35.56 -$6.69 -18.80% > PSUN $29 3/8 $34 -$4.62 -13.60% > SRR $13 3/4 $15 1/4 -$1.50 -9.84% > TUES $26 1/4 $33 -$6.75 -20.45% > > Total -$22.44 -12.79% > > Note: > > Except ASTSF, I think we should have out of these stocks now according > to William O'Neil's 7% (8%) stop rule. > I'll stop this exercise. In other word, I will not post it any more. > > -- > GoldFish > "Life is a process..." > ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: [CANSLIM] humor Date: 26 Apr 1997 19:11:35 -0400 My Canadian friend gave me one I hadn't heard before Did you hear about the guy who retired and bought a jeep and used it to capture deer that he then sold to zoos? Well, he made a fortune. Moral of the story: buy jeep, sell deer tom w ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: [CANSLIM] Re: INVX Date: 26 Apr 1997 19:53:17 -0400 Hi Patrick, am including the group in my response since this is one worth watching Just printed off the charts from DG Online, so this is what will be in the books for next week as of Friday's close. RS 99, EPS 99, GRS 70, A/D B, Timeliness B, U/D 1.6, 50dma at 25, 200dma at 18.25, closed Friday at $26.00 stock had formed something of a base around 29 RS is trending down currently but still 99 so is simply moving parallel to S&P500 avg daily vol is 346,100, Friday it did 320,700. Last week you had three days of normal vol, two were sharply down, one was sharply up. The other two days were light and stock traded flat. Looking back, for most of Feb and Mar stock traded below its 50dma. Right now it may be trying to do a bounce off that line or even go under. Earnings are excellent, its yr ends Sep, and has already reported Q2 (up 214%). Q1 was up 121%, both huge increases over the 19% and 17% of the last two qtrs of prior yr. Est for FY97 is 1.80 and has done 1.08 in six months, well over half way there. Since there does not appear to be sig cyclical swings in its sales or earnings, suggests we will see further increases in earnings estimates. Trailing PE is 18, so below s&P. has options on CBOE. Debt is 2%, funds reported at 9% Aside from the support created by a low PE and rapidly increasing earnings, and the 50dma at 25, there does not appear to be any real support till you get down to about 21-22. You could make an argument that it was trying to form a c&h, and the handle kinda melted (musta left it too close to the burner?) With projected PE for this year already below 15, and approaching 10 for next year, stock looks attractive for those willing to hold longer term. Has lots of good CANSLIM characteristics, just not a real good chart. Other details: #1 in its group on both RS and EPS Shares issued 14.2 mil, float is 12.8 mil Short interest 2.1 days Co is world's leading mfr of lead wire assemblies for the thin film heads of hard disk drives ROE 31% Cash flow $1.18 Inventory t/o 17.9 small div, yield 0.5% book value 7.65x next earnings due July While my call on a possible b/o was clearly off the mark, I think the fundamentals are too strong for a sig breakdown much past here. Trouble is, may decide to go into a several month base in the low to mid 20s, and just tie up capital. I've been watching it, glad you asked cuz made me do a closer exam, I'm also thinking about doing something on it next week, altho don't know if it will be on Monday. May just buy calls, or may go long the stock and sell calls if it moves up quickly. tom w ---------- > From: Patrick Toy > To: stkguru@netside.net > Subject: INVX > Date: Saturday, April 26, 1997 2:44 PM > > Tom, > > You had sent a e-mail message on the 15th of April about a possible > breakout with INVX. I have been watching this stock closely (even before > you mentioned it) and have talked myself into buying it on Monday. I know > the market still looks bad and there are a lot of reports coming out this > week. What do you think??? > > Patrick ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: derek b Subject: [CANSLIM] National get-together in Las Vegas Date: 26 Apr 1997 21:02:07 -0400 For those in Las Vegas on Monday, you'll enjoy the presentations of Henry, Jim, and Bruce (see below). This meeting used to be a big deal, when CANSLIM worked! Interesting titles to the talks. And the Big O also talks at the Money Show. Surprised no one on this list has mentioned this meeting. Another group of left-coast CANSLIMmers has an annual dinner in San Francisco at the Sir Francis Drake on Union Square (August 16 this year). Sold my position in HMX Friday for 20% gain. Now in cash again. There may be some trades to be had in some large caps, but risk in small stocks is extremely high. Remember May is historically a weak month. I can't see much up market action until the uncertainty of the May FOMC is behind us. Derek Reply #1657 of 1657 National CANSLIM in Las Vegas on 28 April, schedule as follows: Starts at 0930 in Bally's Palace 2 Room. First: Swift Energy (SFY) talking about technology changes in the oil and gas industry since 1990 and how SFY is using the technology to reduce drilling risks. Second: How to short stocks by Henry Brookins Lunch Third: about 1:15, Fallen Angels and other Assorted Mythical Market Creatures, by Jim Sheffield Fourth: CANSLIM Potentials and the Poorman's Strategy & Current Picks (Samples) by yours truly, Bruce Brotnov. Some mutual fund managers who were invited were not able to make it. This is the 6th National CANSLIM meeting in L.V. (1st for me). Sorry for delay, just got the agenda. Bruce ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Hemant Rotithor Subject: [CANSLIM] R. Rainwater on Louis Ruckeiser show Date: 26 Apr 1997 21:18:16 -0700 I saw R. Rainwater on Ruckeiser(sp?) show on Friday. It seems he does not beleive in diversification (he is only managing personal assets of $1 Billion), 85% of assets in 6 holdings. When someone pointed out to him how others support diversification his reply was: "diversification is good to STAY rich, but it does not help you to GET rich, and you have to concentrate the assets to get rich". This philosophy touches a nerve because it seems to be professied by many of the rich investors that I have heard about, William O'Neill, Warren Buffet etc. What do people think here about diversification? is it good at all? At what point (level of experience/success) should one start concentrating rather than diversifying? Does anyone in the group NOT diversify much and has been a successful investor (choose your quantitative metric) for a sustained period of time? Would love to hear people's experience/thoughts/opinions. Thanks -- Disclaimer: Opinions expressed in this document are those of the author. Digital Equipment Corp., 110 Spit Brook Rd, ZKO2-3/N30, Nashua, NH 03062 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: [CANSLIM] storage/memory device group Date: 26 Apr 1997 21:07:01 -0400 Am rethinking my prior post suggesting that the memory device group was rolling over since my review of INVX. Since it provides parts for hard drives, and its sales are so strong and growing, now not so sure that this group is in so much trouble. Also failed to consider the nr of existing computers where a drive upgrade is done without replacing the entire computer. Bear in mind that INVX is in the Elec-Misc Components group which has a GRS of 70 while the Computer-Memory Devices group has a GRS of 45. If you look at a chart of STK (Storage Tech) you will see one example of why I am concerned about this group. On the other hand, this group still has three of its five top stocks with RS and EPS over 90 (SMOD, WDC, EMC) so it may be premature to rule this group down and out. (there's that SMOD again!) tom w Any opinions are strictly my own and not that of my employer. My comments are based on a variety of sources and are intended strictly to assist and inform. In no way am I suggesting a buy, sell, or hold decision based on my comments or observations. I always urge an investor to do his or her own homework, and be sure the risk of the market can be tolerated and any losses accepted gracefully. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Brenda" Subject: [CANSLIM] Diversification Date: 26 Apr 1997 20:54:50 -0500 I "attempt" to diversify just a little as is possible. I may own several stocks but most of the time they will fall into the same group. Just what I "attempt" to do. All industries can not be "hot" at the same time and why would I want one that is going down to reduce my profits in the one going up. Why not just be in the one going up. If I were to diversify I would do it with Mutuals. This is a Peter Lynch SOLID philosophy that I concur with 100%. This is just one of the areas of investing that he POUNDS the table about. ---------- > From: Hemant Rotithor > To: canslim@mail.xmission.com > Subject: [CANSLIM] R. Rainwater on Louis Ruckeiser show > Date: Saturday, April 26, 1997 11:18 PM > > I saw R. Rainwater on Ruckeiser(sp?) show on Friday. > It seems he does not beleive in diversification (he is only managing > personal assets of $1 Billion), 85% of assets in 6 holdings. > When someone pointed out to him how others support diversification his > reply was: > "diversification is good to STAY rich, but it does not help you to GET > rich, and you have to concentrate the assets to get rich". > This philosophy touches a nerve because it seems to be professied by > many of the rich investors that I have heard about, William O'Neill, > Warren Buffet etc. > What do people think here about diversification? is it good at all? > At what point (level of experience/success) should one start > concentrating rather than diversifying? Does anyone in the group NOT > diversify much and has been a successful investor (choose your > quantitative metric) for a sustained period of time? > Would love to hear people's experience/thoughts/opinions. > Thanks > -- > Disclaimer: Opinions expressed in this document are those of the author. > Digital Equipment Corp., 110 Spit Brook Rd, ZKO2-3/N30, Nashua, NH 03062 > ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Brenda" Subject: [CANSLIM] Diversification Date: 26 Apr 1997 20:54:50 -0500 I "attempt" to diversify just a little as is possible. I may own several stocks but most of the time they will fall into the same group. Just what I "attempt" to do. All industries can not be "hot" at the same time and why would I want one that is going down to reduce my profits in the one going up. Why not just be in the one going up. If I were to diversify I would do it with Mutuals. This is a Peter Lynch SOLID philosophy that I concur with 100%. This is just one of the areas of investing that he POUNDS the table about. ---------- > From: Hemant Rotithor > To: canslim@mail.xmission.com > Subject: [CANSLIM] R. Rainwater on Louis Ruckeiser show > Date: Saturday, April 26, 1997 11:18 PM > > I saw R. Rainwater on Ruckeiser(sp?) show on Friday. > It seems he does not beleive in diversification (he is only managing > personal assets of $1 Billion), 85% of assets in 6 holdings. > When someone pointed out to him how others support diversification his > reply was: > "diversification is good to STAY rich, but it does not help you to GET > rich, and you have to concentrate the assets to get rich". > This philosophy touches a nerve because it seems to be professied by > many of the rich investors that I have heard about, William O'Neill, > Warren Buffet etc. > What do people think here about diversification? is it good at all? > At what point (level of experience/success) should one start > concentrating rather than diversifying? Does anyone in the group NOT > diversify much and has been a successful investor (choose your > quantitative metric) for a sustained period of time? > Would love to hear people's experience/thoughts/opinions. > Thanks > -- > Disclaimer: Opinions expressed in this document are those of the author. > Digital Equipment Corp., 110 Spit Brook Rd, ZKO2-3/N30, Nashua, NH 03062 > ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] R. Rainwater on Louis Ruckeiser show Date: 26 Apr 1997 22:01:45 -0400 I think the less you are willing or able to devote to your investing, the more you should be diversified (e.g. at one end of the scale are mutual funds for those not willing or able to do the research, altho they still need to do some to pick the right funds and families). At the other end, in a distinct minority, are the ones willing and able to study, research, examine, and stay in touch with their portfolio. tom w ---------- > From: Hemant Rotithor > To: canslim@mail.xmission.com > Subject: [CANSLIM] R. Rainwater on Louis Ruckeiser show > Date: Sunday, April 27, 1997 12:18 AM > > "diversification is good to STAY rich, but it does not help you to GET > rich, and you have to concentrate the assets to get rich". > What do people think here about diversification? is it good at all? , NH 03062 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] National get-together in Las Vegas Date: 26 Apr 1997 21:58:19 -0400 I notice that neither WON nor Ryan are listed. Do they show up for the SF meeting (I would like an excuse to revisit that great city). What do you mean, "uncertainty of the May FOMC" meeting", I have no doubt, 25bp hike, and still maybe 50. tom w ---------- > From: derek b > To: canslim@mail.xmission.com > Subject: [CANSLIM] National get-together in Las Vegas > Date: Saturday, April 26, 1997 9:02 PM > > can't see much up market action until the uncertainty of the May FOMC is > behind us. > > Derek > ------------------------------------------------- ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: [CANSLIM] Indexes Date: 26 Apr 1997 23:09:12 -0400 have spent some time this weekend going over charts of various indexes, trying to assess where we are and where we are going. Consider following my response to all the posts on indexes, as well as my own thoughts. Understand that I do not routinely look at or follow the DJ Trans or Utility indexes, I look at them only to confirm or explain the broad condition and direction of the mkt and the economy. DJ Transportation: strong upward move during April, from low 2300 to 2600, probably some trans stocks that could have made some money here, I missed it. Closed Thu at the low of the day, and dropped further on Friday. Correction/consolidation? Maybe. May just be a move in sympathy with the S&P500. Keep in mind that trans gives a clue to the economy, as an expanding economy needs to move merchandise. The strong boost to the economy recently is reflected here. DJ Utility: Chart looks like I would expect, rising rates decreases the attractiveness of yields on utility stocks, better yields, less risk, more liquidity in Treasuries. This is what the chart on the long bond should look like, IMHO, and doesn't. At least utilities seem to be reflecting the reality of more rate hikes. DJ Industrials: After trading down to the 6300 level several weeks ago, this index has shown a "staircase" type pattern. That is, it has improved, with brief consolidation along the way. By no means does this create support, but at least it provides an exit for the short term trader. Friday's drop to 6738 still leaves it well over the 50dma at about 6680. The low on Friday tested the 50dma, the key short term is whether it can hold it next week. Very short term support in the mid 6600 range. RS compared to the S&P up last week. NYSE Composite: similiar report to the DJ Ind Index, comprising more stocks is better cross section of the NYSE exchange. As such, not as strong as the Dow Ind (30) chart, Friday's reversal to 400 took it below the 50dma at about 404 (it started the day right on the 50dma). RS is down slightly over the past two weeks and shows a flat pattern. Of all of the above, volume indications were a non-event except for DJ Ind where vol has been well over daily average for the past week, and DJ Trans where the past four sessions showed well over avg vol, three of which days were up, only the fourth was down, which looks to me like profit taking in the sector (keep in mind that several airlines "soared" last week, so taking profits and closing out a position on a Friday makes lots of sense). Now to the tough charts (shame we can't all be looking at the same chart, wonder if WON needs another 150 or so beta testers for DG Online?) NASDAQ Composite: 50dma around 1245. had held the closing level of 1200, critical support level, showing mild trend up from there (holding, then trending up being another of my reasons for calling an end to the correction). Friday's close of down nearly 19 points endanger's this apparent recovery attempt. The only good news on Friday was that vol was below average. Need to see this one hold or move up on Monday and get back over 1220 by Tuesday. S&P500: this one a lot more encouraging (esp to someone forecasting the end of the correction, albeit in a big cap mkt) than the NYSE Composite. Two straight weeks or solid and substantial gains. Vol not confirmatory, Friday's drop on lower vol, started the day at the 50dma of 770 and finished not that much lower at 765. MARKET INDICATOR CHARTS: NYSE: Despite Friday's drop, moved back mildly into the overbought category. 10 day moving avg of vol also showed a move to the upside and moved above the vol down line, surprises me, didn't expect this. New hi/low lines continue to move in parallel on a flat line, no indicator here. NASDAQ: moved from what I deem heavily oversold to only moderately oversold. Up vol line still tracking under down vol, but trending up while down vol trending down. However opposite occurring on the new hi/low lines - new lows increasing, new highs dropping, not encouraging at this point. All in all, a mixed bag. Am not so sure we are out of the woods yet, altho the forest is definitely thinning, definitely still expect to see many volatile days. This volatility will be increased, or at least maintained, by the degree of self-disillusionment over a May FOMC rate hike possibility. At least the Utilities stocks are tracking consistent with this probability, even if bonds aren't. tom w Any opinions are strictly my own and not that of my employer. My comments are based on a variety of sources and are intended strictly to assist and inform. In no way am I suggesting a buy, sell, or hold decision based on my comments or observations. I always urge an investor to do his or her own homework, and be sure the risk of the market can be tolerated and any losses accepted gracefully. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: GoldFish Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Re: INVX Date: 26 Apr 1997 23:22:32 -0700 Tom: Wonderful and complete research and analysis on this stock! I suggest that next time anyone who want to discuss a stock in this group should use Tom's report as a benchmark to give details analysis on fundamental as well as other CANSLIM criteria. I remember someone posted couple week ago, according to William O'Neil: "CANSLIM is a based on fundamental not momemtum". Folks! let's keep up the good work here. -- GoldFish "Every stock is a bad stock..." Tom Worley wrote: > > Hi Patrick, > am including the group in my response since this is one worth > watching > > Just printed off the charts from DG Online, so this is what will be > in the books for next week as of Friday's close. > RS 99, EPS 99, GRS 70, A/D B, Timeliness B, U/D 1.6, 50dma at 25, > 200dma at 18.25, closed Friday at $26.00 > stock had formed something of a base around 29 > RS is trending down currently but still 99 so is simply moving > parallel to S&P500 > avg daily vol is 346,100, Friday it did 320,700. Last week you had > three days of normal vol, two were sharply down, one was sharply > up. The other two days were light and stock traded flat. Looking > back, for most of Feb and Mar stock traded below its 50dma. Right > now it may be trying to do a bounce off that line or even go under. > Earnings are excellent, its yr ends Sep, and has already reported > Q2 (up 214%). Q1 was up 121%, both huge increases over the 19% and > 17% of the last two qtrs of prior yr. Est for FY97 is 1.80 and has > done 1.08 in six months, well over half way there. Since there does > not appear to be sig cyclical swings in its sales or earnings, > suggests we will see further increases in earnings estimates. > Trailing PE is 18, so below s&P. has options on CBOE. Debt is 2%, > funds reported at 9% > Aside from the support created by a low PE and rapidly increasing > earnings, and the 50dma at 25, there does not appear to be any real > support till you get down to about 21-22. You could make an > argument that it was trying to form a c&h, and the handle kinda > melted (musta left it too close to the burner?) > With projected PE for this year already below 15, and approaching > 10 for next year, stock looks attractive for those willing to hold > longer term. Has lots of good CANSLIM characteristics, just not a > real good chart. > Other details: #1 in its group on both RS and EPS > Shares issued 14.2 mil, float is 12.8 mil > Short interest 2.1 days > Co is world's leading mfr of lead wire assemblies for the thin film > heads of hard disk drives > ROE 31% > Cash flow $1.18 > Inventory t/o 17.9 > small div, yield 0.5% > book value 7.65x > next earnings due July > > While my call on a possible b/o was clearly off the mark, I think > the fundamentals are too strong for a sig breakdown much past here. > Trouble is, may decide to go into a several month base in the low > to mid 20s, and just tie up capital. I've been watching it, glad > you asked cuz made me do a closer exam, I'm also thinking about > doing something on it next week, altho don't know if it will be on > Monday. May just buy calls, or may go long the stock and sell calls > if it moves up quickly. > > tom w > ---------- > > From: Patrick Toy > > To: stkguru@netside.net > > Subject: INVX > > Date: Saturday, April 26, 1997 2:44 PM > > > > Tom, > > > > You had sent a e-mail message on the 15th of April about a > possible > > breakout with INVX. I have been watching this stock closely > (even before > > you mentioned it) and have talked myself into buying it on > Monday. I know > > the market still looks bad and there are a lot of reports coming > out this > > week. What do you think??? > > > > Patrick ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: GoldFish Subject: [CANSLIM] INVX Date: 26 Apr 1997 23:43:59 -0700 Here is what I got about INVX. Vinik has reduce holding on INVX twice in January. I don't know why. Just to share it with you folks! -- GoldFish "Every stock is a bad stock..." ================================================================== WASHINGTON, Jan 30 (Reuter) - A group led by former Fidelity Magellan Fund manager Jeffery Vinik said Thursday it reduced its stake in Innovex Inc to 578,100 common shares, or 4 percent, from 5.4 percent previously held. In a filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission, the group said its latest transactions include the sale of 185,000 common shares between January 17 and January 29 at prices ranging from $25.7291 and $31.9789 per share. Innovex, based in Hopkins, Minn., is a maker of precision electromagnetic products. ======================================================================= WASHINGTON, Jan 17 (Reuter) - A group led by former Fidelity Magellan Fund manager Jeffrey Vinik said Friday it cut its stake in Innovex Inc to 773,000 common shares or 5.4 percent from 6.7 percent previously held. In a filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission, the group said its latest transactions include a net of 186,900 common shares sold between January 7 and January 16 at prices ranging from $26.3750 to $34.6910 per share. The group holds the stake for investment purposes, the filing said. Innovex, based in Hopkins, Minn., is a maker of precision electromagnetic products. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: GoldFish Subject: [CANSLIM] Is INVX forming a cup-and-handle? Date: 26 Apr 1997 23:47:38 -0700 Looking at the chart of INVX http://quote.yahoo.com/quotes?symbols=invx&detailed=1y Is it forming a cup-and-handle? -- GoldFish "Every stock is a bad stock..." ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: pwahl@postoffice.worldnet.att.net Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] IBM (was LL to UR graphs) Date: 26 Apr 1997 21:43:16 -0800 > From: "Tom Worley" > what I was seeing. As far as I was concerned, IBM was a legitimate > CANSLIM candidate except to a true purist CANSLIM. Posting my > comments was in part a test of my read on it, partly showing off, I agree. I think excluding a stock only because it has a large number of share outstanding is a mistake. A fast growing large company can have returns just as good as a small company. Intel and MSFT are two good examples. In the very strict sense, they are not CANSLIM stocks, but only because of the S. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Zoran Mitrovski Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] R. Rainwater on Louis Ruckeiser show Date: 27 Apr 1997 02:35:16 -0400 (EDT) Hemant wrote: > What do people think here about diversification? is it good at all? > At what point (level of experience/success) should one start > concentrating rather than diversifying? Does anyone in the group NOT > diversify much and has been a successful investor (choose your > quantitative metric) for a sustained period of time? > Would love to hear people's experience/thoughts/opinions. > Thanks Few rules that I follow: 1. Study the situation before each trade you make. 2. Build a set of probable hypotheses. 3. Let TA tell you: - when to enter, - when to exit if your winning hypothesis is wrong, - when to exit if your winning hypothesis is right. 4. When the decision time comes, enter with a position that would produce a loss of no more than 2% of your total trading assets if the hypothesis turns out to be wrong. (Don't risk more than 2% of your total money per one trade.) Diversification, or NO diversification, is not an issue. With the above rules you can enter ten different trades simultaneously with 10% of assets per trade (diversification along the "markets" axis), OR you can enter and exit ten different trades in a row, each with 100% of assets per trade (diversification along the "time" axis). The trick is to figure out the entry and the protective stop points that maximize your chances for winning on EACH trade, and then let the 2% rule decide how big your position should be. Quantitative measures of other people's success won't help you. There is no ONE ultimate answer to the question of successful trading. It is a highly individualistic endeavor, and by the nature of things, it cannot be taught to the crowd because the crowd's main purpose is to define the center of the bell-curve. You HAVE TO find your own way. (By "you" above I meant "one", "we", ...i.e. it was used figuratively.) Cheers, Zoran http://www.seas.rochester.edu:8080/ee/users/zmitrov/home.html ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: derek b Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] National get-together in Las Vegas Date: 27 Apr 1997 07:23:51 -0400 The Canslim meetings in Las Vegas this week and in SF in August are not "official," just users' groups of rabid canslimmers. Some are excellent stock pickers and enjoy sharing. Monthly Canslim meetings of these user groups occur in Houston, SF, and Wash. DC. These groups have put together the above referenced "national" Canslim meetings. I don't think they ever attracted WON or Ryan. These meetings and the annual dinner typically attract 40-50 canslimmers and are held in association with ISI Money Shows. You may be able to read Greenspan's intentions for May, but the Street appears adrift until the uncertainty of what actually occurs in May is behind us. I can see a possible "relief" rally at that point should the FOMC continue the 25bp trend. 50bp seem to me to beyond Greenspan's typical modus operandi. Derek Tom Worley wrote: > I notice that neither WON nor Ryan are listed. Do they show up for > the SF meeting (I would like an excuse to revisit that great city). > What do you mean, "uncertainty of the May FOMC" meeting", I have no > doubt, 25bp hike, and still maybe 50. > > tom w ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Charley Meng Subject: [CANSLIM] storage/memory device group Date: 27 Apr 1997 07:29:15 -0400 I have SEG WDC QNTM in my portfolio. Earnings reports for the group have come out and have been very strong. One even mentioned that the sales were capacity constrained. Parts suppliers were not able to keep up with demand. P/E ratios are down to less than 15 for all of them. They have been selling off like the whole sector is going to get wiped out. I don't have a clue as to why this selloff is going on. With all of the increases in file sizes, graphics useage, etc., there will be a real expansion in drive space. Further, costs of storage have dropped at a fast rate. Tom W's comment about adding a drive being a cheap upgrade sounds correct to me. Let's see, better products, lower prices, high profits, continually expanding demand n a larger market. why does that lead to lower stock prices and p/e's of 12. Any suggestions? > Date: Sat, 26 Apr 1997 21:07:01 -0400 > From: "Tom Worley" > Subject: [CANSLIM] storage/memory device group > > Am rethinking my prior post suggesting that the memory device group > was rolling over since my review of INVX. Since it provides parts > for hard drives, and its sales are so strong and growing, now not > so sure that this group is in so much trouble. Also failed to > consider the nr of existing computers where a drive upgrade is done > without replacing the entire computer. > Bear in mind that INVX is in the Elec-Misc Components group which > has a GRS of 70 while the Computer-Memory Devices group has a GRS > of 45. > If you look at a chart of STK (Storage Tech) you will see one > example of why I am concerned about this group. On the other hand, > this group still has three of its five top stocks with RS and EPS > over 90 (SMOD, WDC, EMC) so it may be premature to rule this group > down and out. > (there's that SMOD again!) > > tom w -- Regards Charley Meng Mailto:cmeng@uky.campus.mci.net ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] storage/memory device group Date: 27 Apr 1997 08:45:51 -0400 My original suggestion that this group might be in trouble was based, in part, on two different stories I had picked up (one was in connection with one co's earnings release) which together suggested slowing growth just as production capacity was picking up, which in turn could lead to further price cuts and hampering of profit growth. If industry wide they were capacity restrained, I wouldn't expect to see prices dropping so much. Trouble with this, we may not have the answer till next earnings cycles unless analysts start cutting the ratings and earnings estimates in the meantime. tom w ---------- > From: Charley Meng > To: canslim@xmission.com > Subject: [CANSLIM] storage/memory device group > Date: Sunday, April 27, 1997 7:29 AM > > I have SEG WDC QNTM in my portfolio. Earnings reports for the group > have come out and have been very strong. One even mentioned that the > sales were capacity constrained. Parts suppliers were not able to keep ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Brenda" Subject: [CANSLIM] May FOMC- Up? Hope NOT! Date: 27 Apr 1997 08:00:32 -0500 In My Humble Opinion there is just about as much chance of him RAISING the interest rates 50 basis points as there is him doing the RIGHT thing and LOWERING the interest rate 50 basis points. I let me market tell me what it is doing and maybe, must maybe, for once, the market is going to hold Mr. Greenspan captive and not let him do what HE WANTS to do, "the wrong and improper thing" of raising the interest rates. If the market resumes it's upward path, which I am no longer convinced that it will do being as all indexes are in sync and headed south, but head north he will raise the rate. That sends the market back down. If the market stays where it is or heads south I do not think, even Greenspan is stupid enough to raise rates in the face of that. It is my opinion that Greenspan is the most powerful man in the world at this particular instant and moment in history and "could become" the most hated man in history since Hitler if he continues on his wayward path. Oh well, just my opinion. A shame that "the greatest barter place in all time is being manipulated and controlled" by one man who states in public that he does not think he has any influence over the market because one man could not do that. If he thinks that and makes statements like that in public how could one expect better in other areas? James ---------- > From: derek b > To: canslim@mail.xmission.com > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] National get-together in Las Vegas > Date: Sunday, April 27, 1997 6:23 AM > You may be able to read Greenspan's intentions for May, but the Street > appears adrift until the uncertainty of what actually occurs in May is > behind us. I can see a possible "relief" rally at that point should the > FOMC continue the 25bp trend. 50bp seem to me to beyond Greenspan's > typical modus operandi. > > Derek > > Tom Worley wrote: > > I notice that neither WON nor Ryan are listed. Do they show up for > > the SF meeting (I would like an excuse to revisit that great city). > > What do you mean, "uncertainty of the May FOMC" meeting", I have no > > doubt, 25bp hike, and still maybe 50. > > > > tom w > ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] May FOMC- Up? Hope NOT! Date: 27 Apr 1997 10:07:49 -0400 Careful James, you're getting rabid on this issue. And, as you well know, I disagree with you and support Greenspan's actions to date. I am not interested or willing to see us chase growing inflation like we did in the Carter years until interest rates are back at 18% or so, that destroys, not slows, the economy, and takes years to recover. I will shortly be posting my defense, an economic report. Hope your blood pressure (hummm, that's also bp, like basis point, any connection?) will have dropped a little by then :--). tom w ---------- > From: Brenda > To: canslim@mail.xmission.com > Subject: [CANSLIM] May FOMC- Up? Hope NOT! > Date: Sunday, April 27, 1997 9:00 AM > > In My Humble Opinion there is just about as much chance of him RAISING the > interest rates 50 basis points as there is him doing the RIGHT thing and > LOWERING the interest rate 50 basis points. I let me market tell me what it > is doing and maybe, must maybe, for once, the market is going to hold Mr. > Greenspan captive and not let him do what HE WANTS to do, "the wrong and > improper thing" of raising the interest rates. If the market resumes it's ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: [CANSLIM] Economic Report Date: 27 Apr 1997 11:20:49 -0400 Next week will be a light one for earnings reports and a busy one for economic reports. As a reminder, recall some of my past discussions on how I try to view these reports by examining not only the nrs themselves but how accurate the economists are in their forecasting, as well as how the data stands up in any subsequent review or update. Recently Commerce has screwed up a couple times, most recently double counting crude oil imports and inflating the trade deficit by over a billion dollars. But hey, what the heck, billion here, billion there, everntually you are talking real money. One report that was sharply revised upward last week was the March building permits. Originally estimated by Commerce as falling 1.5%, it was revised on final data received to up 0.6%. This is an important report as it is a precursor of future building activity. Coming on the heels of so much political criticism of the Fed's rate hike in March, and demands from some of the opponents up on the hill (who dislike any powerful agency not being under their control) for congressional hearings prior to any future rate hikes (could take years just to schedule the hearings), combined with reports that are initially reported as estimates, then updated later much higher in an inflationary direction, I am concerned that monetary policy is rapidly becoming politicized and may eventually become unreliable and unresponsive. Should that happen, I would expect to see us in a recession within several years, chasing inflation much like we did in the Carter years till interest rates approach 20%. I am not saying Commerce is actually deliberately skewing their estimates in the direction of non-inflationary indicators, however it is a political animal and subject to manipulation. I have seen criticism of Greenspan based on a belief that he is manipulating the mkt, I do not believe this, but his actions certainly affect the mkt and the media circus focuses a lot of attention on this. When he says anything about the mkt being overvalued, there is a frenzy of coverage. When he is asked about what he really meant and the mkt's reaction to his words, there is virtually no coverage. He is a free mkt economist, the value of the mkt is but one minor input to the Fed's decisionmaking process. Frankly, I think Greenspan may be the only person who is powerful enough to put some backbone into Congress and the White House so that we can (eventually) attain a balanced budget. Maybe then we can start talking about reducing the obscene nat'l debt. OK, editorial over with, had to get that out of my system. Reports due next week: Monday - March new homes sales - existing home sales reported last week down sharply (2.8%) altho total for qtr will still be very high and concensus was for a drop of 3.3% Tuesday - Q1 Employment Cost Index - due at 8:30AM, this is an important one. Of 35 economists surveyed, 18 expect a qtr'ly increase of 0.9%, economists at two wirehouses are expecting 1.1%, seven other economists are expecting 1.0%, and at least one is expecting 0.8%. Most, including myself, are expecting to continue to see benefits costs, esp health care, returning to their more historic (higher) levels than we have been seeing, thus further increasing future labor costs in an inflationary direction. This report may also be skewed higher as a lot of the end-of-year bonuses and promotions and raises were not included in Q4 report. Also expected to contribute to the increase in ECI are commissions resulting from the strong retail sales of the first qtr and factory overtime (remember my prior comments about inventory being at historic record lows and production having to ramp up if strong sales continued? This is one area where production increases will show up). Mar Durable Goods (watch out for this one, concensus seems to be expecting a low report around 0.3% increase Apr Consumer Confidence - slight drop recently, hope it holds, bearish sentiment favorable Wednesday - Q1 GDP initial report, don't know the concensus, but likely will be strong and inflationary Apr Chicago NAPM, could go either way but gives a hint at what the Feds will be looking at in May hope this helps put the week into perspective. tom w Any opinions are strictly my own and not that of my employer. My comments are based on a variety of sources and are intended strictly to assist and inform. In no way am I suggesting a buy, sell, or hold decision based on my comments or observations. I always urge an investor to do his or her own homework, and be sure the risk of the market can be tolerated and any losses accepted gracefully. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: [CANSLIM] Charts Date: 27 Apr 1997 11:23:11 -0400 I'm just about charted out and ready to start studying for my Options Principal license. Don't know how many charts I looked at so far this weekend, and still not done, but haven't found one I like and willing to take money out of the bank for. Looked at stocks hitting new highs, stocks mentioned here, stocks due to report next week (dismal list), etc. If I find something, will post it. tom w Any opinions are strictly my own and not that of my employer. My comments are based on a variety of sources and are intended strictly to assist and inform. In no way am I suggesting a buy, sell, or hold decision based on my comments or observations. I always urge an investor to do his or her own homework, and be sure the risk of the market can be tolerated and any losses accepted gracefully. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: [CANSLIM] News you can use Date: 27 Apr 1997 11:50:33 -0400 First, you may not be aware of a website, NASD Regulations, where you can gain a lot of info about your broker, what he is supposed to do, and even file complaints online. It is at http://www.nasdr.com. It is for both the investing public as well as member firms and I was there to gather up some info for my continuing ed program. Secondly, at NASDAQ's site, http://www.nasdaq.com, a good one to bookmark, you can get the current lists of stocks now participating in the new SEC rules designed to tighten spreads, as well as read the results to date of this new rule. So far, the top (first, most liquid) 50 stocks showed a spread tightening from a prior spread of .20 to .15. Of the first 150 stocks involved, overall they showed spreads tightening from an average of 3/8 down to 1/4. Last week more stocks were added, and more are added tomorrow, so looks like it is working and being steadily implemented. Should help us all if this mkt ever gets its act together. tom w Any opinions are strictly my own and not that of my employer. My comments are based on a variety of sources and are intended strictly to assist and inform. In no way am I suggesting a buy, sell, or hold decision based on my comments or observations. I always urge an investor to do his or her own homework, and be sure the risk of the market can be tolerated and any losses accepted gracefully. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: pwahl@postoffice.worldnet.att.net Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] May FOMC- Up? Hope NOT! Date: 27 Apr 1997 15:02:05 -0800 > From: "Brenda" > In My Humble Opinion there is just about as much chance of him RAISING the > interest rates 50 basis points as there is him doing the RIGHT thing and > LOWERING the interest rate 50 basis points. I let me market tell me what it > is doing and maybe, must maybe, for once, the market is going to hold Mr. > Greenspan captive and not let him do what HE WANTS to do, "the wrong and > improper thing" of raising the interest rates. If the market resumes it's > upward path, which I am no longer convinced that it will do being as all I would like to hear the reasoning behind your statement that raising interest rates is the improper thing to do. The probable consequence of an interest rate hike causing a market sell off is not an argument against raising rates (just in case that is your reasoning). Personally, I think Greenspan is doing a pretty good job. Also, I would like to point out that in the bond market, market forces set interest rates based on what current inflationary expectations are, and the "vote" in that market is that rates should be higher, as seen by the rise in yields on the 30 year bond from something like 6.2% to 7.1% in the last 4-5 months. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: OWENTIME@delphi.com Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Cup-with-a-Handle Date: 27 Apr 1997 19:26:24 -0400 (EDT) RE: Overhead supply and chartist protocall. Seems that some of the good bases can be found in last Nov-Jan crunched up stocks. Sifting through them and CANSLIM -ing them could be a possibility after this "correction" occurs. T s a novice, I am trying to follow the "bending of the rules" in corrections and changing sectors. Cup and handle with little or no momentum seems only possible after a long tight base. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Brenda" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] May FOMC- Up? Hope NOT! Date: 27 Apr 1997 18:29:02 -0500 I've done this before ONCE, but you did ask. TOM DO NOT READ ANY FURTHER. Your blood pressure is high enough. TOM! I told you not to read any further!!!!! OK, Tom's been forewarned so here goes. Peter Lynch, known as THE guru of Wall Street, and earned the name through long hours of hard work, family neglect, making mostly right moves at the right time, and certainly knows and understands the market. He will tell you that when the interest rate is 8% he is OUT OF HERE as far a stocks go. Even, the great Peter Lynch, as great as he is refuses to fight interest rates of 8%. When all that bidding is done on the bond market they have to be guessing what the interest rate is going to be. If they buy bonds paying 7% and Mr. G. raises the rate to 8% they couldn't unload what they have by throwing in all the tea that was sunk in the Boston Harbor. As rates rise many things happen in our economy. The last time rates were raised you saw a MAD FURRY of prospective home buyers RUSHING out LOCKING down rates. Bidding for quarter and even half points HIGHER than prime. What do you see now? NOTHING. Take a ride into the neighborhoods and count the for sale signs and then count how many have the word SOLD on them. This tells an ENORMOUS story about the economy. Then to take it a step further, if you see a house that is sold check and see if it was not bought by one stepping DONW and not UP. As rates rise many things will happen in the economy that will "make" other things happen. Reagan understood ECONOMY 101. Even, John Kennedy understood ECONOMY 101. They knew and had good men beside them to help them and they both listened. They did not want "YES MEN". They wanted MEN! They wanted people who KNEW what they were talking about. And then, the important part. They listened. The story can go on and on and on. Watch what the experienced, those in the know, those who are not now in the limelight, our YES MAN BY MY SIDE has taken care of that. Watch what these people are saying.Names? They are abundant. THEY are ALL saying the same thing. And, Tom, if you are reading this - NONE of them are in agreement with you or Mr. Greenspan. I do not doubt that in his mind he is doing what he "thinks" to be right. Let's face it. He would not have his job this very instant if Clinton had not reappointed him. And, with not ONE man beside Clinton who is NOT a YES man, don't kid yourself for one instant that Clinton would have re-appointed somebody who did not answer to him. Sorry, but that's polotics. It would be out of character for Clinton to have around him somebody who stands for something. That's bad, but that's politics. The youngsters had the forum in Church today and it was refreshing to hear things put but into simple, easy to understand terms. They said that if you want to know what politics, Congress, and our country are going to look like 20 years from now take a look at the school classroom Any school classroom. What a scary thought! Even more sad, is that it is probably true. No real stands on anything, can't offend anybody about anything, loosey goosey, no prayer, etc., etc., etc. Oh well, group that's it for me - BUT I was asked to respond. I didn't even mention the most telling fact about interest. I haven't paid LIST PRICE on almost anything at the grocery store or anything that I can remember for that matter in a long, long time. Mr. Clinton will not mind telling you that he modeled his governcy of Ark after Mr. Jimmy Carter and then his Presidency. He could got out in a flurry with a repeat of just what ran Mr. Carter out on a rail. Sorry, Jimmy, but you got some bad advice. All those YES people just don't get the job done. Not the tough ones, anywyay. Ya'll all have a good rest of Sunday. I'm going back to watching the Bulls. James There is somebody who acts like a team, even though they have stars, and they get the job done. ---------- > From: pwahl@postoffice.worldnet.att.net > To: canslim@mail.xmission.com > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] May FOMC- Up? Hope NOT! > Date: Sunday, April 27, 1997 6:02 PM > > > From: "Brenda" > > > > In My Humble Opinion there is just about as much chance of him RAISING the > > interest rates 50 basis points as there is him doing the RIGHT thing and > > LOWERING the interest rate 50 basis points. I let me market tell me what it > > is doing and maybe, must maybe, for once, the market is going to hold Mr. > > Greenspan captive and not let him do what HE WANTS to do, "the wrong and > > improper thing" of raising the interest rates. If the market resumes it's > > upward path, which I am no longer convinced that it will do being as all > > I would like to hear the reasoning behind your statement that raising > interest rates is the improper thing to do. The probable consequence > of an interest rate hike causing a market sell off is not an argument > against raising rates (just in case that is your reasoning). > Personally, I think Greenspan is doing a pretty good job. > > Also, I would like to point out that in the bond market, market > forces set interest rates based on what current inflationary > expectations are, and the "vote" in that market is that rates should > be higher, as seen by the rise in yields on the 30 year bond from > something like 6.2% to 7.1% in the last 4-5 months. > > ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: OWENTIME@delphi.com Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Networking Group Date: 27 Apr 1997 19:40:58 -0400 (EDT) Networks or software sector first? Opinions please on whether the software stocks will soon outperform the overhead soaked network sector? Many software stocks look plump with earnings in this environment. I've notice FORTE software down a bit, despite nice profit beginnning to show up solidly. As a complete novice, I'm guessing that analysts want the stock to tighten up the base a bit first before becoming one of the better software stocks within about 8 weeks. Your opinions on FORTE. (Hasn't shown strict CANSLIM profits, but it may well do so.) Thanks Warren Kent ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: OWENTIME@delphi.com Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] R. Rainwater on Louis Ruckeiser show Date: 27 Apr 1997 20:19:23 -0400 (EDT) RE: Diversification and Rainwater O'Neill says to keep a hand full of good stockswhich is interesting in the width of billionaire Rainwater's holdings. So I imagine it is "managability" of the portfolio, the same in getting or staying rich. I think Rainwater was saying more that Capitalism is really the only game in town and whatever way a person decides to jump in is a matter of perspective. Remember, not everyone wants to get rich or stay rich, while for others, power might be more political and less money. I think people who don't "tag along for the ride" on the market, but who generate enourmnous wealth, do so more a wake they leave behind in thier encompassing interests that make them decide the venture capital risks are goals to work for. They probably have decidedly different views on money once they move through the venture capital thing into a mature, profitable corp. that can be turned over to more traditional management practices. The risks are great, so, diversification becomes a factor of operant conditioning, almost a "knee jerk" reaction to wealth. I think the more interesting question that forever remains unanswered is if "getting rich" may involve getting the rich person into a poorer perspective on their role and purpose in life, where they actually begin to believe that the dollar value in their portfolio equates with the size of their ego and their motivations for proving to everyone else, just how great they are. The rich suffer from great inequities amongst themselves: A crook who steals a fortune can live in the same neighborhood a great entrepreneur who has generated jobs, patents, and wowed Wall Street the hard way. ...and then there is always the flood. Warren Kent ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Networking Group Date: 27 Apr 1997 21:16:55 -0400 Warren, I understand you are a novice, but I think you missed Friday's trading. Are you talking about the same Forte Software (FRTE) I am? You know, the one that closed Thursday at 16.5 after trading to 18, then opened Friday at 12.5 and plunged to a huge new low of 8 before closing around 8.25? This stock isn't close to CANSLIM criteria (thank goodness or I might have posted it last Thursday night as a possible gap up candidate). Stock has been in a consistent downtrend since mid Jan. RS of 2 in a group with a low GRS. Yeah, agree earnings were excellent (.14 vs .05, with .10 expected). However, funds "owned" (note past tense) 37% and probably Morgan Stanley, who cut the ratings to a hold (their word for sell) were undoubtedly one of the big sellers on Friday. The simple reason for the ratings cut, and for slicing and dicing the stock price, is that the company admitted it will have to invest heavily in its sales force this year. That suggests not only added comp for the sales force they retain, but slowing sales as they train new people, plus the added cost of recruiting. This is a "fallen knife" but too early to pick it up, even for value shoppers. I saw no bounce potential in it on Friday, may happen next week but suspect any rally will generate more selling. tom w ---------- > From: OWENTIME@delphi.com > To: canslim@mail.xmission.com > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Networking Group > Date: Sunday, April 27, 1997 7:40 PM > > with earnings in this environment. I've notice FORTE software down > a bit, despite nice profit beginnning to show up solidly. As a complete > novice, I'm guessing that analysts want the stock to tighten up the > base a bit first before becoming one of the better software stocks > within about 8 weeks. Your opinions on FORTE. (Hasn't shown strict > CANSLIM profits, but it may well do so.) > > Thanks > Warren Kent ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Craig Griffin Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] storage/memory device group Date: 27 Apr 1997 21:49:29 -0400 Charley, At 07:29 AM 4/27/97 -0400, you wrote: >Let's see, better products, lower >prices, high profits, continually expanding demand n a larger market. >why does that lead to lower stock prices and p/e's of 12. > >Any suggestions? My speculation is that the industry historically has had boom and bust cycles as regards earnings. It seems that they are constantly beating each other's brains out with lower prices and higher capacity drives. This creates constant margin pressure. (Doesn't do much good to sell more and more of something if it is at a loss). And even though the long shakeout in this industry seems over for the moment, the street is not convinced. The recent profits that these companies have enjoyed were actually predicted by the surge in prices starting in mid 1996. Now the stocks are digesting these price adjustments, pausing to refresh. So... they give it a lower PE at the moment. If the market becomes convinced that margin pressures are ahead, they might take this group down to a PE of 6 or 8. I have seen it happen before once or twice. OTOH, if the market becomes convinced that there is another leg to the profits, there should be another leg to the stock price advance as well. It looks like we are approaching a decision point with many of these stocks looking like they want to collapse through the bottom of the bases they have been building. If they do, it could be a shakeout (to get rid of the weak holders), or could be a breakdown (big price correction). The charts do look dicey. Last week I said I was watching for them to recover to the tops of their bases to maybe buy 'em on a breakout in two or three weeks. Now with down weeks for last 2 or 3 weeks in a row and the testing of near term lows, it looks like it could be a while. Tom may have called this one right (nothing new there), it does look like they have rolled over on the charts over the last two weeks. Sorry if I made a bad call last week. I was surprised with the way they acted Thursday and Friday, I was looking for a rally and got the reverse. They could still firm up, I just can't be sure. Sorry, to not give a strong opinion one way or the other. I would be very careful if they break through the bottom of the base. Hope this helps a bit, anyway. Best I can do. Regards, Craig ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Craig Griffin Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Economic Report Date: 27 Apr 1997 22:03:57 -0400 Thank you Mr. Worley! I truely did find this post useful. I especially liked your analysis of the coming week's economic reports and the expectations. Looks like the markets are approaching an inflection point. Will be interesting to see if they manage to hold over the next couple of weeks and drift upwards as I would expect based on the followthrough day in the S&P. OR - will they fall through their recent lows and set up some kind of extended downtrend? Hope these reports are all good .. er, bad ... well you know what I mean. At 11:20 AM 4/27/97 -0400, you wrote: >Reports due next week: > > Monday - March new homes sales - existing home sales reported >last week down sharply (2.8%) altho total for qtr will still be >very high and concensus was for a drop of 3.3% > > Tuesday - Q1 Employment Cost Index - due at 8:30AM, this is an >important one. Of 35 economists surveyed, 18 expect a qtr'ly >increase of 0.9%, economists at two wirehouses are expecting 1.1%, >seven other economists are expecting 1.0%, and at least one is >expecting 0.8%. Most, including myself, are expecting to continue >to see benefits costs, esp health care, returning to their more >historic (higher) levels than we have been seeing, thus further >increasing future labor costs in an inflationary direction. This >report may also be skewed higher as a lot of the end-of-year >bonuses and promotions and raises were not included in Q4 report. >Also expected to contribute to the increase in ECI are commissions >resulting from the strong retail sales of the first qtr and factory >overtime (remember my prior comments about inventory being at >historic record lows and production having to ramp up if strong >sales continued? This is one area where production increases will >show up). > Mar Durable Goods (watch out for this one, >concensus seems to be expecting a low report around 0.3% increase > Apr Consumer Confidence - slight drop recently, >hope it holds, bearish sentiment favorable > > Wednesday - Q1 GDP initial report, don't know the concensus, but >likely will be strong and inflationary > Apr Chicago NAPM, could go either way but >gives a hint at what the Feds will be looking at in May > >hope this helps put the week into perspective. > >tom w > >Any opinions are strictly my own and not that of my employer. >My comments are based on a variety of sources and are intended >strictly to assist and inform. In no way am I suggesting a buy, >sell, or hold decision based on my comments or observations. >I always urge an investor to do his or her own homework, and >be sure the risk of the market can be tolerated and any losses >accepted gracefully. > > ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Fw: [CANSLIM] May FOMC- Up? Hope NOT! Date: 27 Apr 1997 22:25:41 -0400 Didn't see this one return, so reposting. tom w ---------- > From: Tom Worley > To: canslim@mail.xmission.com > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] May FOMC- Up? Hope NOT! > Date: Sunday, April 27, 1997 9:06 PM > > Sorry to disagree, James, and no sweat on the BP (blood pressure, > that is, always had unusually low bp). > In fact, housing sales are very strong, Q1 will undoubtedly show > one of the stronger qtrs in some time despite the drop in Mar. This > will hold true for both new and existing housing. You are correct, > despite the rise in rates recently, there has not been a sudden > stampede to lock in a loan. Primarily that is for the same reasons > that Mar sales were down, good weather (and rising rates) in Jan & > Feb led to extremely high sales those months. Bad weather (and > short term less buyers) led to a slow down in Mar. It is ironic, > apparently due to natural human greed and the fact that a home > purchase is a major, long term financial event, that buyers will > hold off locking in a loan in a falling interest rate environment > hoping to get that eighth or qtr pt better. As soon as it is > obvious rates are going up, they start rushing to complete the > deal. But if you don't spend an hour or more a day studying > economic reports and commentaries and research as I do, it is easy > to doubt there will be more rate hikes. Obvious signs of inflation > are not out there, present inflation rates are not a problem. This > is why you and Congress and others are so critical. His job and > intent is to prevent that ever happening by increasing to slow the > growth of the economy before inflation gets out of control. > As to no one agreeing with Greenspan on the need for rate hikes > (besides myself of course), he has been well supported by the Fed > governors, as well as by most economists at the major wirehouses as > well as many of the minor ones. Keep in mind this latter group gets > their paycheck from a brokerage house, if rate hikes were > ultimately worse for the stock mkt than the inflationary risks are > to the economy, and thereby to the market, I doubt it would take > five seconds for many respected economists paid by the securities > industry to be all over Greenspan. You have postulated that > Greenspan wants to manipulate the mkt, again don't you think the > securities industry would be screaming if it even suspected that? > Likewise, if there was even the hint that he somehow was personally > benefiting financially? He's a powerful and very public man, the > media would love to get something on him. > > As to slick Willy reappointing Greenspan, he had no choice. At the > time Greenspan was a hero, brought us out of inflation, stable and > growing economy, low interest rates and inflation etc (yeah, I > know, slick Willy says he did all that, but here I hope we > understand better who really accomplished that). If he had not > reappointed him, he would have come under even more criticism than > he's getting for Whitewatergate and his affairs and dirty campaign > financing and ....... > > Yeah, I know Lynch talks about getting outta mkt when rates pass 8% > or so, just don't believe it. Have seen him change his stripes > rather quickly when he changed jobs last, actually was touting low > priced growth stocks! In fact, historically money starts fleeing > the stock mkt when rates go over 7%, we have been over that level > for some time now without seeing the typical shift of money. Why? > Because even with low inflation, the potential return long term in > the stock mkt is still sufficiently higher than the bond mkt to > offset the added risk. I've said it before, this is not your > typical, normal, historically accurate mkt. It must be judged on > its own characteristics and behaviour and performance without > attempting to make forecasts from historic models. > > tom w > ---------- > > From: Brenda > > To: canslim@mail.xmission.com > > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] May FOMC- Up? Hope NOT! > > Date: Sunday, April 27, 1997 7:29 PM > > > > Peter Lynch, known as THE guru of Wall Street, and earned > the name > > tell you that when the interest rate is 8% he is OUT OF HERE as > far a > > > rates rise many things happen in our economy. The last time rates > were > > raised you saw a MAD FURRY of prospective home buyers RUSHING out > LOCKING > > down rates. Bidding for quarter and even half points HIGHER than > prime. > > What do you see now? NOTHING. Take a ride into the neighborhoods > and count > > the for sale signs and then count how many have the word SOLD on > them. This > > > on and on. Watch what the experienced, those in the know, those > who are not > > now in the limelight, our YES MAN BY MY SIDE has taken care of > that. Watch > > what these people are saying.Names? They are abundant. THEY are > ALL saying > > the same thing. And, Tom, if you are reading this - NONE of them > are in > > agreement with you or Mr. Greenspan. I do not doubt that in his > mind he is > ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Fw: [CANSLIM] storage/memory device group Date: 27 Apr 1997 22:47:27 -0400 Reposting this one as well, waited for its return, no joy. tom w ---------- > From: Tom Worley > To: canslim@mail.xmission.com > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] storage/memory device group > Date: Sunday, April 27, 1997 10:19 PM > > Sarright, Craig, I hedged my opinion too, after looking at a couple > others in the group and seeing how the top ones were rated. I think > you hit it on the head, this group can go either way. Hedge long > positions with puts, don't open new positions till you know the > direction, then either buy or short. Guess that covers all the > bases, huh? > > For Warren, I did some more browsing in the software group after my > comments on FRTE. You might compare its chart to Baan Co (BAANF). > They both have EPS of 74, similiar net per share earnings altho > BAANF much larger. Look at the difference in the two charts for the > past two months. > > For everyone, I am still scratching for some good charts for next > week. If you are speculative and a risk taker, found couple that > may be worth watching: > Zebra Tech (ZBRA) - good CANSLIM except RS 53, basing. > Abacus (ABDR) - good CANSLIM except RS 46 (same group as MFAC), > possible reversal on good earnings > Cos reporting earnings next week: I found nothing that really > impressed me. Several may be able to gap up if earnings good > enough, but didn't find the kind of chart patterns I was really > looking for. The best potential candidates I saw were Symantec > (SYMC), Bethlehem steel (BS), Boeing (BA) (several defense > contractors have been coming in with strong earnings), and (ugh) > Borland (BORL). SYMC due to report on Monday, BS and BA on Tue, and > BORL one day next week. > > Nothing I'd get excited about or cash in the CD for. > > tom w > ---------- > > From: Craig Griffin > > To: canslim@mail.xmission.com > > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] storage/memory device group > > Date: Sunday, April 27, 1997 9:49 PM > > > > Charley, > > > > My speculation is that the industry historically has had boom and > bust > > cycles as regards earnings. It seems that they are constantly > beating each > > other's brains out with lower prices and higher capacity drives. > This > > creates constant margin pressure. (Doesn't do much good to sell > more and > > more of something if it is at a loss). > > > > And even though the long shakeout in this industry seems over for > the > > moment, the street is not convinced. The recent profits that > these > > > > So... they give it a lower PE at the moment. If the market > becomes > > convinced that margin pressures are ahead, they might take this > group down > > to a PE of 6 or 8. I have seen it happen before once or twice. > OTOH, if > > the market becomes convinced that there is another leg to the > profits, there > > should be another leg to the stock price advance as well. It > looks like we > > are approaching a decision point with many of these stocks > looking like they > > want to collapse through the bottom of the bases they have been > building. > > If they do, it could be a shakeout (to get rid of the weak > holders), or > > could be a breakdown (big price correction). The charts do look > dicey. > ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: OWENTIME@delphi.com Subject: Re: Fw: [CANSLIM] storage/memory device group Date: 28 Apr 1997 00:08:50 -0400 (EDT) This race for offshore cheap production in the memory sector seems like it would clobber profits for atleast a yearbut then again, I'm a novice. If this turns out to be a year with real Halloween followed by a real Santa Claus I think the sector strength will be particularly crucial. For example if Boeing is doing well (but too expensive) why wouldn't Thiokall be an equally attractive choice when the next handle forms? Opinions? What sector will be strongest this year? ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] storage/memory device group Date: 27 Apr 1997 22:19:18 -0400 Sarright, Craig, I hedged my opinion too, after looking at a couple others in the group and seeing how the top ones were rated. I think you hit it on the head, this group can go either way. Hedge long positions with puts, don't open new positions till you know the direction, then either buy or short. Guess that covers all the bases, huh? For Warren, I did some more browsing in the software group after my comments on FRTE. You might compare its chart to Baan Co (BAANF). They both have EPS of 74, similiar net per share earnings altho BAANF much larger. Look at the difference in the two charts for the past two months. For everyone, I am still scratching for some good charts for next week. If you are speculative and a risk taker, found couple that may be worth watching: Zebra Tech (ZBRA) - good CANSLIM except RS 53, basing. Abacus (ABDR) - good CANSLIM except RS 46 (same group as MFAC), possible reversal on good earnings Cos reporting earnings next week: I found nothing that really impressed me. Several may be able to gap up if earnings good enough, but didn't find the kind of chart patterns I was really looking for. The best potential candidates I saw were Symantec (SYMC), Bethlehem steel (BS), Boeing (BA) (several defense contractors have been coming in with strong earnings), and (ugh) Borland (BORL). SYMC due to report on Monday, BS and BA on Tue, and BORL one day next week. Nothing I'd get excited about or cash in the CD for. tom w ---------- > From: Craig Griffin > To: canslim@mail.xmission.com > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] storage/memory device group > Date: Sunday, April 27, 1997 9:49 PM > > Charley, > > My speculation is that the industry historically has had boom and bust > cycles as regards earnings. It seems that they are constantly beating each > other's brains out with lower prices and higher capacity drives. This > creates constant margin pressure. (Doesn't do much good to sell more and > more of something if it is at a loss). > > And even though the long shakeout in this industry seems over for the > moment, the street is not convinced. The recent profits that these > > So... they give it a lower PE at the moment. If the market becomes > convinced that margin pressures are ahead, they might take this group down > to a PE of 6 or 8. I have seen it happen before once or twice. OTOH, if > the market becomes convinced that there is another leg to the profits, there > should be another leg to the stock price advance as well. It looks like we > are approaching a decision point with many of these stocks looking like they > want to collapse through the bottom of the bases they have been building. > If they do, it could be a shakeout (to get rid of the weak holders), or > could be a breakdown (big price correction). The charts do look dicey. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: [CANSLIM] Company Debt Date: 28 Apr 1997 07:02:05 -0400 Normally I don't pay a lot of attention to the debt level of a particular company when I look at a dailygraph. But ever since it became obvious to me that rates were going up, I have started consciously looking at this nr. I am seeing a pattern I frankly did not expect. Unlike what I expected to find, I am seeing most of the smaller (secondary) cos that would typically have high debt as they are growing fast, and big profits just starting in fact are showing very little if any debt. The cos with the highest debt levels are all big caps for the most part. Just a thought for the future on the impact on small caps as rates rise. tom w Any opinions are strictly my own and not that of my employer. My comments are based on a variety of sources and are intended strictly to assist and inform. In no way am I suggesting a buy, sell, or hold decision based on my comments or observations. I always urge an investor to do his or her own homework, and be sure the risk of the market can be tolerated and any losses accepted gracefully. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: derek b Subject: [Fwd: [CANSLIM] Probing for stock vital signs] Date: 28 Apr 1997 07:46:16 -0400 Sent this yesterady. Didn't see return bounce. With the premise that something's always going up regardless of the market, I'm testing a new system to find mock-canslim stocks that may have some life even in a tricky market. Note that I'm in cash and will not consider any possible buys until after the Tues AM economic data. Thus these are watch candidates for possible play on Tuesday. Fundies have not been fully researched. Each of the following has positive earnings and has a cooperating chart when viewed on weekly compression. Thus, if they become buy candidates, I would anticipate a hold in the weeks to months time frame. For those familiar, these triggered a John Yurko "Bell Ringer" signal Friday. That is, if I've coded it right. Warning: I have about 1-hour familiarity with this system. AEIS 9.25 GRCO 4.00 HPBC 20.25 MEH 42 would like some retracement (high tight flag) MI 31.875 If this system bears merit, I'll post more details here and on my Web page. Derek ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Robert Gammon" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] May FOMC- Up? Hope NOT! Date: 28 Apr 1997 08:10:59 +0500 James, I see Greenspan in a very different light. Loved. hated, it doesn't matter. Is he doing his job? Are the goals of the Federal Reserve being met? Is inflation under control? Is the economy growing at a manageable rate? How the stock market reacts to his performance of his job is not significant. I can't hope to predict which way the FOMC will go in May. Without access to the same sources of data, and constant bombardment by it, I can only place a bet, not make a prediction. *----------------------------------------------------------------------* Robert Gammon My opinions are my own. In no way do rgammon@micro.ti.com I represent the views of my employer Using OS/2 Warp Connect, and a user of every version of OS/2 since v1.0 *----------------------------------------------------------------------* ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: David F. Cameron Subject: [CANSLIM] 30-yr. bond rate Date: 28 Apr 1997 8:34:05 CDT Did anyone else notice that in today's (Mon, April 28) IBD - on the front page where they show their summary of what a few indices did that the 30-yr bond rate is 5.90% down -1.16 or something like that? Wishful thinking? Someone commented (I think it was James amidst another ranting) that Lynch doesn't like to see a rate higher than 8%. I believe Zweig feels the same way. But, Zweig and O'Neil both, more importantly watch the stock indexes first and foremost. In early '95, the Fed tightened short-term rates for the last time until recently (or maybe it was late '94 - but I don't think so...) Anyway, at that time - long term rates were climbing - but just before the peak - the major market indexes started to climb. It wouldn't have mattered then if the 30-yr. bond rate was 12% - it was time to get in the market. The level didn't matter - the changing trend did. Later, Dave Cameron ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: David F. Cameron Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Economic Report Date: 28 Apr 1997 8:36:38 CDT Patrick posted: > > > From: "Tom Worley" > > > Coming on the heels of so much political criticism of the Fed's > > rate hike in March, and demands from some of the opponents up on > > the hill (who dislike any powerful agency not being under their > > control) for congressional hearings prior to any future rate hikes > > (could take years just to schedule the hearings), combined with > > Yes, I saw that something like 63 Democratic Congressman are > protesting Greenspan's policies. What a bunch of blockheads. Why a > bunch of politicians think they have a better idea of where interest > rates should be than a trained economist who spends his time trying > to figure out the answer to that question is beyond me. (Actually, > not beyond me, I think the mentality that goes into making a person > a politician in the first place is that they think know better than > everyone else and want to legislate everything they can get their > hands on.) > Excellent observation! Unfortunately for Mr.G., the economy, and our investing - if the legislative branch wants it bad enough, they can thwart Mr.G. Luckily for us - they haven't wanted to badly enough. Just MHO. Dave Cameron > > ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Brenda" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] May FOMC- Up? Hope NOT! Date: 28 Apr 1997 09:04:12 -0500 I really like that comment. I like that a LOT. With your permission this comment will be used Internationally this coming week. :) James ---------- > From: Robert Gammon > To: canslim@mail.xmission.com > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] May FOMC- Up? Hope NOT! > Date: Sunday, April 27, 1997 10:10 PM > > I can't hope to predict which way the FOMC will go in May. > Without access to the same sources of data, and constant > bombardment by it, I can only place a bet, not make a > prediction. > *----------------------------------------------------------------------* > Robert Gammon My opinions are my own. In no way do > rgammon@micro.ti.com I represent the views of my employer > Using OS/2 Warp Connect, and a user of every version of OS/2 since v1.0 > *----------------------------------------------------------------------* > > ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Brenda" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] 30-yr. bond rate Date: 28 Apr 1997 09:11:23 -0500 Little known fact: After an interest DECREASE, the market has ALWAYS been higher 8 months from the exact date the decrease was annouced. Afer an interest INCREASE, the market has ALWAYS been higher 8 months from the exact date the increase was announced. In fact, what Lynch did have to say about the interest rate going above 8 percent was that his youngest child even understood it. Said, the instant she hears the news she starts cheering. Why? Because she knows Daddy is on his way home and will be here for a while and for her it means "free time with Daddy." ---------- > From: David F. Cameron > To: canslim@mail.xmission.com > Subject: [CANSLIM] 30-yr. bond rate > Date: Monday, April 28, 1997 8:34 AM > > Did anyone else notice that in today's (Mon, April 28) IBD - on the front > page where they show their summary of what a few indices did that the 30-yr > bond rate is 5.90% down -1.16 or something like that? Wishful thinking? > > Someone commented (I think it was James amidst another ranting) that > Lynch doesn't like to see a rate higher than 8%. I believe Zweig > feels the same way. But, Zweig and O'Neil both, more importantly > watch the stock indexes first and foremost. In early '95, the > Fed tightened short-term rates for the last time until recently > (or maybe it was late '94 - but I don't think so...) Anyway, at > that time - long term rates were climbing - but just before the > peak - the major market indexes started to climb. It wouldn't > have mattered then if the 30-yr. bond rate was 12% - it was time > to get in the market. The level didn't matter - the changing > trend did. > > Later, > > Dave Cameron > ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "James B. Andrews" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Company Debt Date: 28 Apr 1997 08:52:13 -0700 I can't figure out what you are saying here.. Can you explain?? At 07:02 AM 4/28/97 -0400, you wrote: Unlike what I expected to find, I am seeing most of the >smaller (secondary) cos that would typically have high debt as they >are growing fast, and big profits just starting in fact are showing >very little if any debt. > ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Johan Van Houtven Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] storage/memory device group Date: 27 Apr 1997 16:21:20 +0200 Tom wrote: >Am rethinking my prior post suggesting that the memory device group >was rolling over since my review of INVX. Since it provides parts >for hard drives, and its sales are so strong and growing, now not >so sure that this group is in so much trouble. The parts providers are definately not in trouble. I know this for sure since my father knows a lot of exec in that industry. Some magnetic head suppliers have a difficult time to keep up with demand from some hard drive makers. So IF we assume that the decreasing A/D pattern in for example WDC is based on a possible price war between SEG, QNTM, WDC and the likes, the suppliers like INVX will not necessarily be hurt. >Also failed to >consider the nr of existing computers where a drive upgrade is done >without replacing the entire computer. I did consider it when you previously posted. But that is something that has going on for years. So I did not consider it to be a relevant factor in answer the question why the A/D rating of WDC, QNTM and SEG is trending south. >Bear in mind that INVX is in the Elec-Misc Components group which >has a GRS of 70 while the Computer-Memory Devices group has a GRS >of 45. >If you look at a chart of STK (Storage Tech) you will see one >example of why I am concerned about this group. On the other hand, >this group still has three of its five top stocks with RS and EPS >over 90 (SMOD, WDC, EMC) so it may be premature to rule this group >down and out. >(there's that SMOD again!) SMOD and INVX are definately on my watch list. But I do not expect that I will be buying stocks any time soon, as I do not think this correction is over yet. Johan Van Houtven CLICK! N.V. / Wilrijk, Belgium ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: pwahl@postoffice.worldnet.att.net Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] May FOMC- Up? Hope NOT! Date: 28 Apr 1997 10:27:30 -0800 > From: "Brenda" > Peter Lynch, known as THE guru of Wall Street, and earned the name > through long hours of hard work, family neglect, making mostly right moves > at the right time, and certainly knows and understands the market. He will > tell you that when the interest rate is 8% he is OUT OF HERE as far a > stocks go. Even, the great Peter Lynch, as great as he is refuses to fight > interest rates of 8%. When all that bidding is done on the bond market they This would seem to be a true statement, but it has nothing to do with whether or not Greenspan should raise rates. His concern is not with how hard it is for you and I and Peter Lynch to make money in the stock market. > What do you see now? NOTHING. Take a ride into the neighborhoods and count > the for sale signs and then count how many have the word SOLD on them. This > tells an ENORMOUS story about the economy. Then to take it a step further, > if you see a house that is sold check and see if it was not bought by one This is anecdotal evidence. > the same thing. And, Tom, if you are reading this - NONE of them are in > agreement with you or Mr. Greenspan. I do not doubt that in his mind he is > doing what he "thinks" to be right. Let's face it. He would not have his > job this very instant if Clinton had not reappointed him. And, with not ONE > man beside Clinton who is NOT a YES man, don't kid yourself for one instant > that Clinton would have re-appointed somebody who did not answer to him. > Sorry, but that's polotics. It would be out of character for Clinton to This and the rest of the stuff I deleted is a personal attack on Greenspan and Clinton and not an economic argument for leaving rates where they are. > classroom Any school classroom. What a scary thought! Even more sad, is > that it is probably true. No real stands on anything, can't offend anybody > about anything, loosey goosey, no prayer, etc., etc., etc. Oh well, group > that's it for me - BUT I was asked to respond. I didn't even mention the I think you are letting your political leanings leak into (gush into, maybe) your economic analysis. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: pwahl@postoffice.worldnet.att.net Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] 30-yr. bond rate Date: 28 Apr 1997 10:27:30 -0800 > From: David F. Cameron > Did anyone else notice that in today's (Mon, April 28) IBD - on the front > page where they show their summary of what a few indices did that the 30-yr > bond rate is 5.90% down -1.16 or something like that? Wishful thinking? Didn't see that, but it ain't even close. As I type this, rates on 30 year bonds are 7.138%. With all the economic data out this week, that could change significantly. Just looked at the IBD, you aren't seeing things, but I don't know what the heck they are looking at ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Brenda" Subject: [CANSLIM] Politics/Economics Date: 28 Apr 1997 13:00:13 -0500 Two "think" the two are not almost synonymous is ludicrous. Ignore either and your investments are founded missing an important leg for support. James ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] 30-yr. bond rate Date: 28 Apr 1997 20:54:19 -0400 future forecast, after the economy cools off some and Mr G cuts a little to keep us on track and out of recession? tom w ---------- > From: pwahl@postoffice.worldnet.att.net > To: canslim@mail.xmission.com > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] 30-yr. bond rate > Date: Monday, April 28, 1997 2:27 PM > > > From: David F. Cameron > > > Did anyone else notice that in today's (Mon, April 28) IBD - on the front > > page where they show their summary of what a few indices did that the 30-yr > > bond rate is 5.90% down -1.16 or something like that? Wishful thinking? > > Just looked at the IBD, you aren't seeing things, but I don't know > what the heck they are looking at ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: [CANSLIM] MFAC Date: 28 Apr 1997 21:23:56 -0400 News hot off the press, or at least was when I printed it. Market Facts (MFAC) announced after the close (4:42PM) that it is doing a 2:1 split that will go effective (be paid) May 27. Record date is May 12, but remember that means nothing except on a cash type dividend. On stock splits the pay date is the one that counts, that is when, in this case, the price will be cut in half. tom w Any opinions are strictly my own and not that of my employer. My comments are based on a variety of sources and are intended strictly to assist and inform. In no way am I suggesting a buy, sell, or hold decision based on my comments or observations. I always urge an investor to do his or her own homework, and be sure the risk of the market can be tolerated and any losses accepted gracefully. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] storage/memory device group Date: 28 Apr 1997 21:21:21 -0400 Following quoted from a release by Dell Computers at 1:35PM today: DELL "said computer market demand continues to be "robust" and, if anything, may be accelerating from the early months of the year....also said component availaility appears "quite good" ... meanwhile computer makers do not seem to be slashing prices too steeply. Computer makers are passing through decreases in component costs and not pricing below production costs.... said Dell's business remains "robust" but declined to be more specific". What I get out of this is that my original post may have been half correct, prices are being cut on hard drives, thus leaning out profits and dropping the share price. On the other hand, with a steadily increasing nr of computers in use, a certain percentage will upgrade with a new drive. In addition, if computer sales are "robust" then demand remains strong even if capacity has caught up to demand. What I don't know is if capacity continues to increase as fast as demand apparently is growing? This takes us back to the original question of why a number of good drive makers are seeing their share price fall. Only answer I can see that makes sense is an expectation of a slowing in earnings growth, even on greater sales. tom w ---------- > From: Johan Van Houtven > To: canslim@mail.xmission.com > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] storage/memory device group > Date: Sunday, April 27, 1997 10:21 AM > > Tom wrote: > >Am rethinking my prior post suggesting that the memory device group > >was rolling over since my review of INVX. Since it provides parts > >for hard drives, and its sales are so strong and growing, now not > >so sure that this group is in so much trouble. > > The parts providers are definately not in trouble. I know this for sure > since my father knows a lot of exec in that industry. Some magnetic head > suppliers have a difficult time to keep up with demand from some hard drive > makers. > > So IF we assume that the decreasing A/D pattern in for example WDC is based > on a possible price war between SEG, QNTM, WDC and the likes, the suppliers > like INVX will not necessarily be hurt. > > >Also failed to > >consider the nr of existing computers where a drive upgrade is done > >without replacing the entire computer. > > I did consider it when you previously posted. But that is something that > has going on for years. So I did not consider it to be a relevant factor in > answer the question why the A/D rating of WDC, QNTM and SEG is trending south. > > >Bear in mind that INVX is in the Elec-Misc Components group which > >has a GRS of 70 while the Computer-Memory Devices group has a GRS > >of 45. > >If you look at a chart of STK (Storage Tech) you will see one > >example of why I am concerned about this group. On the other hand, > >this group still has three of its five top stocks with RS and EPS > >over 90 (SMOD, WDC, EMC) so it may be premature to rule this group > >down and out. > >(there's that SMOD again!) > > > SMOD and INVX are definately on my watch list. But I do not expect that I > will be buying stocks any time soon, as I do not think this correction is > over yet. > > > > Johan Van Houtven > CLICK! N.V. / Wilrijk, Belgium > ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [Fwd: [CANSLIM] Probing for stock vital signs] Date: 28 Apr 1997 21:28:03 -0400 I'll take a look at the charts on HPBC, MEH (think I looked at it this weekend, don't remember how I found it, I was so cross eyed by then), and MI. The two low priced ones are wrong for this big cap mkt, may work, but I already got too many non-performing little stocks. I'll post what I find. tom w ---------- > From: derek b > To: canslim@mail.xmission.com > Subject: [Fwd: [CANSLIM] Probing for stock vital signs] > Date: Monday, April 28, 1997 7:46 AM > > > AEIS 9.25 > GRCO 4.00 > HPBC 20.25 > MEH 42 would like some retracement (high tight flag) > MI 31.875 > ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Michael A Langston Subject: re: [CANSLIM] MFAC Date: 28 Apr 1997 21:36:28 -0400 > Market Facts (MFAC) announced after the close (4:42PM) that it is still carrying an outrageous spread? > doing a 2:1 split that will go effective (be paid) May 27. oh, a 2-for-1 -- but on a $20 stock? -- it must be one thin rascal, or have a tiny float, or both > that is when, in this case, the price will be cut in half. yea, i've seen a lot of em cut in half lately -- just w/o the extra shares :) mike ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] MFAC Date: 28 Apr 1997 21:54:14 -0400 Mike, you're being too cynical, it's hard for me to maintain my cheery smile and optimism! It does have a small float, as well as small nr of shares issued, so this could/should more than tighten up the spread some. Should have more liquidity as well. And at least with this one you get the addl shares! Actually, without this news, was kinda looking like a new entry point for anyone not too strict at applying CANSLIM chart patterns and willing to hold for a while. Traded up a little today, even before NASDAQ turned positive. tom w ---------- > From: Michael A Langston > To: canslim@mail.xmission.com > Subject: re: [CANSLIM] MFAC > Date: Monday, April 28, 1997 9:36 PM > > > Market Facts (MFAC) announced after the close (4:42PM) that it > > is still carrying an outrageous spread? > > > doing a 2:1 split that will go effective (be paid) May 27. > > oh, a 2-for-1 -- but on a $20 stock? -- it must be one thin > rascal, or have a tiny float, or both > > > that is when, in this case, the price will be cut in half. > > yea, i've seen a lot of em cut in half lately -- just w/o > the extra shares :) > > mike ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Fw: [CANSLIM] Company Debt Date: 28 Apr 1997 21:58:26 -0400 Snipped from a private response, hope it clarifies (no, no not CLFY!!!). tom w ---------- > From: Tom Worley > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Company Debt > Date: Monday, April 28, 1997 9:08 PM > > It seems I may have confused more than helped here. I'll try again. > What I was mentioning was an anomoly, you know, one of those things > you don't expect and can't easily explain (like profitable trades > lately!). > While I do expect big cap stocks to carry substantial debt due to > their credit rating (they can borrow money at rates cheaper than > their growth), I don't expect to find younger cos that are growing > at more rapid rates in near or actual debt free condition. Even tho > they may have to pay higher rates, they need that capital for > growth, for new equipment, new plants, new personnel, new > technology, research and development, etc. That is one reason why a > "growth" co rarely pays a dividend, it is plowing all its profits > right back into the company. It is capital intensive. And since it > can grow at 20 or 30 percent, the higher rates it must pay on debt > is still low. Yet, the more charts I look at of "young" companies, > the more I see with insignificant debt levels. Can't explain it, > just interesting, esp in light of likely rate hikes. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: derek b Subject: [CANSLIM] longterm inflation-corrected DJT DJU DJI Date: 28 Apr 1997 22:35:38 -0400 Very interesting charts. Longterm inflation-corrected comparison of DJ Transports, Utilities, Industrials. http://cpcug.org/user/invest/djtcon.gif http://cpcug.org/user/invest/djucon.gif http://cpcug.org/user/invest/djicon.gif And some explanation: http://cpcug.org/user/invest/inflcorp.html Derek ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: derek b Subject: [CANSLIM] H&Q Tech Conference updates Date: 28 Apr 1997 22:44:50 -0400 Updated several times a day from the H&Q current tech conference: http://www.dbc.com/cgi-bin/htx.exe/newsroom/special/hq.html?source=3Dcore= /dbc Updated: Mon Apr 28 16:20:16 1997=20 By DBC NewsRoom's Tom Murphy H&Q's Case sees growth for tech shares SAN FRANCISCO (DBC) -- Hambrecht & Quist Chief Executive Daniel Case says the prospects for technology stocks look "excellent" in the upcoming quarter even amid a "poor" performance in the first quarter.=20 Speaking at the opening of his investment firm's yearly technology conference, Case on Monday pointed to companies such as Netscape Communications Corp. as examples of stocks that are "at very attractive levels" following this year's fall in their stock market valuations.=20 "We needed a correction. We expected one. But that doesn't mean we're enjoying it," Case told some of the 3,000 money managers, company executives and analysts gathered for the four-day conference in San Francisco. "We know the first quarter of 1997 was a poor one by our standards and yours, and our investment recommendations and a lot of our recent underwritings have given back some, all or more than all of their gains."=20 Case's comments were welcomed by the audience, which has watched tech stocks fall steadily during the past two months. The Pacific Stock Exchange Technology Index, for example, tumbled to about 237 recently from a high of 267.11 in mid-February.=20 Case said H&Q believes "the cure's at hand," and that the "investment performance in technology stocks and especially in emerging growth will be excellent in the period ahead." More news from the conference: =95 Tech investors have fingers crossed =95 Iomega tries to preserve margins =95 Sun hot on Java revenue =95 Netscape sees 'biggest product cycle ever' =95 Hambrecht & Quist's web site See Tech Report for latest H&Q news Tom Murphy is managing editor of the Data Broadcasting Corp. NewsRoom ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: [CANSLIM] Economics 101 Date: 28 Apr 1997 22:44:12 -0400 The Durable Goods report is due at 8:30AM on Wednesday, could be wild as estimates vary from down 0.8% to up 2.0%, consensus is for up 0.3% and I would not be surprised if it beats this by 1 or 2 tenths or even a whole lot more. Dec was down 1.7%, Jan was up 3.8%, Feb up 1.5%, so trend is no predictor. March New Home Sales were down 2.5% from Feb, what does this mean? In actual nrs, it means an annualized unit sales drop from 834K in Feb to 813K in March. Worth noting, this is the first three month period where annualized sales were over 800K since the spring of 1978! And who's saying sales are slow, now! And remember what I said about early estimates being revised sharply higher, the Feb estimate was originally reported at down 0.7%, later revised to up 1.1%. January was originally reported at up 3.5%, later revised to up 3.9%. Wanna bet against March's drop being revised to a lesser nr, or even up, against this pattern? Biggest drops were felt in the Northeast and the South, biggest gains came in the West Coast. While the inventory of existing homes grew in March, it dropped for new homes, down 10K, reaching the same low nr set back in April 1994, threee years ago. Average price increased by $1600. Actual sales for March were 8000 over February's. Sorry, James, sales in your neighborhood may be sluggish, but not so nationwide from this data. Q1 GDP: Consensus is now for a report of a 4% growth in Q1 GDP, per 25 economists. Estimates range from 3.3% to 4.9%, with several forecasts at 4%. All seem to generally agree the nrs were driven by a surge in consumer spending. Addl reports this week: NAPM reports on Thursday, and employment report on Friday. Both of these are reporting on the month of April, vice other reports that are on March, so are more timely as we approach the FOMC meeting next month. Note that this will be the last major employment report before that meeting, however. tom w Any opinions are strictly my own and not that of my employer. My comments are based on a variety of sources and are intended strictly to assist and inform. In no way am I suggesting a buy, sell, or hold decision based on my comments or observations. I always urge an investor to do his or her own homework, and be sure the risk of the market can be tolerated and any losses accepted gracefully. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: [CANSLIM] Future FOMC rate hikes Date: 28 Apr 1997 22:47:06 -0400 New bodies wading into the argument over whether Greenspan should further tighten rates include G7 at this weekend's meeting and IMF (Int'l Monetary Fund). Both appear to support another half a pt raise this year in order to maintain a healthy, growing US economy. tom w Any opinions are strictly my own and not that of my employer. My comments are based on a variety of sources and are intended strictly to assist and inform. In no way am I suggesting a buy, sell, or hold decision based on my comments or observations. I always urge an investor to do his or her own homework, and be sure the risk of the market can be tolerated and any losses accepted gracefully. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: derek b Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Economics 101 Date: 28 Apr 1997 23:04:52 -0400 Anyone surprised bonds were up today given all the important economic news due this week? From Bloomberg: "U.S. bonds rose for the first time in four days after the Federal Reserve bought $1.924 billion of Treasury securities for its own account." Don't have Bloomberg terminal here. Can anyone confirm this story? Derek ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Economics 101 Date: 28 Apr 1997 23:25:54 -0400 no point to confirming, this is a normal occurrence. Bonds are arguing that rates won't go higher, volatility further swinging around thanks to shorts, then short covering, then more shorting. On the other hand, utility stocks are behaving predictably, look at the chart for the Utilities Index. tom w ---------- > From: derek b > To: canslim@mail.xmission.com > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Economics 101 > Date: Monday, April 28, 1997 11:04 PM > > Anyone surprised bonds were up today given all the important economic > news due this week? > > >From Bloomberg: "U.S. bonds rose for the first time in four days after > the Federal Reserve bought $1.924 billion of Treasury securities for its > own account." > > Don't have Bloomberg terminal here. Can anyone confirm this story? > > Derek ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Brenda" Subject: [CANSLIM] CLFY Date: 29 Apr 1997 00:20:58 -0500 ---------- > From: Tom Worley > To: CANSLIM > Subject: Fw: [CANSLIM] Company Debt > Date: Monday, April 28, 1997 8:58 PM > > Snipped from a private response, hope it clarifies (no, no not > CLFY!!!). > >Tom, You must not have looked at CLFY the last couple of days. Don't say nay, nay before you look. A TON of money being made here! James ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] CLFY Date: 29 Apr 1997 05:59:49 -0400 Yeah, I'm aware CLFY has moved back up a little, one broker in my office has bot 10,000 shares for his own acct, so he's happy. But for investors that own it from a month or so ago, there's a long way to go before they see daylight. tom w ---------- > From: Brenda > To: canslim@mail.xmission.com; CANSLIM > Subject: [CANSLIM] CLFY > Date: Tuesday, April 29, 1997 1:20 AM > ---------- > > From: Tom Worley > > To: CANSLIM > > Subject: Fw: [CANSLIM] Company Debt > > Date: Monday, April 28, 1997 8:58 PM > > > > Snipped from a private response, hope it clarifies (no, no not > > CLFY!!!). > > > >Tom, > You must not have looked at CLFY the last couple of days. Don't say > nay, nay before you look. A TON of money being made here! > James ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: [CANSLIM] Re: probing for stock vital signs Date: 29 Apr 1997 06:40:33 -0400 No offense intended, Derek, but your list of five would require some major probing to find "mock-canslim" candidates here. You mentioned all had positive earnings, in fact AEIS and MI both had earnings drops for the last two qtrs (and MI forecast for '97 was a further 18% drop), while GRCO had earnings drop for past two qtrs. Definitely not canslim here. Several are extremely thinly traded (AEIS 34k, GRCO 14,900, HPBC 4K, MEH 19,800). The only one with RS and EPS over 90 was MEH, and it is way too extended to be a canslim entry pt (trading at 44 on vertical spike, base is at 37-38). Unless you coded your "system" wrong, I would try another system. good luck tom w Any opinions are strictly my own and not that of my employer. My comments are based on a variety of sources and are intended strictly to assist and inform. In no way am I suggesting a buy, sell, or hold decision based on my comments or observations. I always urge an investor to do his or her own homework, and be sure the risk of the market can be tolerated and any losses accepted gracefully. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: [CANSLIM] Earnings Date: 29 Apr 1997 06:57:55 -0400 In case you missed it, SYMC did report after the close op earnings net of 30 cents, est was for 25 cents. With NASDAQ having closed strong and on upward momentum, I would normally bet on a gap up here. However, the opening bell will be controlled by the eci report due at 8:30, so wouldn't bet on a dog, much less a stock. After Boeing surprised the mkt and reported earnings early (.87, est was for 1.00) and took the dow 30 on a roller coaster (at closing bell, BA was down 6 5/8, which equaled 21.67 down pts on the Dow 30, further minimizing the good day the dow 30 had by still closing up 44), I decided not to take the chance on SYMC, so natch, they report good earnings and will probably gap up a hundred or so pts today. The eci will probably report we all worked for free, cos will announce because of huge profits they will give away their durable goods, and Greenspan will preemptively cut the interest rate by a record pt and a half, making James gleeful. Meantime, Japan will announce that, because of the weakness in yen and strength in dollar, they are changing their monetary system over to the US dollar, dropping all trade barriers, and applying for statehood ahead of Puerto Rico (if they can't be first, they don't want to be 52nd!). tom, tom, wake up, you're dreaming again (yeah, but if you think that's bad, I'm talking to myself as well!) Oh well, here's my wish list for today's lesson in economics, not likely, but then many still don't believe in a May hike either. Not to lose sight of why we are here, if today's news should tank the mkt big time, there may be some nice short term trading opportunities on the better big caps. Stay with liquidity, and pick ones that have shown solid earnings and sales growth. I took a look at IBM, DELL, MSFT and INTC this AM. All look decent, esp the last three. This is NOT a recommendation, simply a comment on some leadership tech stocks. I am sure there are many more out there like this. There is certainly increased risk in today's mkt, but money can be made by the aggressive investor. tom w Any opinions are strictly my own and not that of my employer. My comments are based on a variety of sources and are intended strictly to assist and inform. In no way am I suggesting a buy, sell, or hold decision based on my comments or observations. I always urge an investor to do his or her own homework, and be sure the risk of the market can be tolerated and any losses accepted gracefully. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Re: probing for stock vital signs Date: 29 Apr 1997 06:59:25 -0400 My typo, earnings for AEIS and MI had dropped for four consecutive qtrs. tom w ---------- > From: Tom Worley > To: CANSLIM > Cc: Jacques Ferron > Subject: [CANSLIM] Re: probing for stock vital signs > Date: Tuesday, April 29, 1997 6:40 AM > > No offense intended, Derek, but your list of five would require > some major probing to find "mock-canslim" candidates here. You > mentioned all had positive earnings, in fact AEIS and MI both had > earnings drops for the last two qtrs (and MI forecast for '97 was a > further 18% drop), while GRCO had earnings drop for past two qtrs. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: [CANSLIM] Re: How is Daily Graphs Online working this morning? Date: 29 Apr 1997 07:43:04 -0400 Great news, Jody, how do they sign up (I suspect from my CC: line you could get about a hundred of so new "beta testers" in the next day or so!)? Do they just go to http://www.dailygraphs.com and sign up as if they were subscribing? I understand only dummy bills are being sent at this point, is this correct? When will DG Online be fully operational? Any hope of a policy change to provide screening options? How is it working? Fabulous, as usual, the only thing I have noticed is that it tends to disconnect real quick if I pause to study a chart or print it (which I tend to do a lot of, going thru reams of paper). This morning I probably went thru about 60 or so charts already, maybe more. Response time is excellent, even when I have been disconnected it only takes a few seconds to reconnect, and you don't have to log back on. tom w ---------- Tom, I appreciate your comments about Daily Graphs Online. All of your suggestions have been brought up at our product development meetings. We are now welcoming everyone as beta testers so please spread the word. Thank you, Jody Mulkey ---------- ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: David F. Cameron Subject: [CANSLIM] ECI/Durable Goods Date: 29 Apr 1997 9:06:15 CDT Well... the ECI rose just 0.6 percent in the first quarter, less than the economists 'average' - and less than Tom had predicted. Although, Tom is probably just as happy to be wrong. (See Tom, I point out when you're wrong ... you were complaining that no one lauded your IBM pick - so what the heck - I'll mention your overestimate. But... please don`t take it wrong. I respect your knowledge and judgment, I just have to have SOME fun...) In addition, durable goods orders for March were reported to have fallen 3.0 percent ( I think economists expected roughly flat - if I remember correctly ). February orders, originally reported as having been up 1.5 percent were revised to an 0.8 percent increase. Based on this, I don't think a .50 hike is in the offing. I think this has turned the tide back to .25. Can I beat Tom to be on record for this? Of course, he may have come to the same conclusion. Anyway... I'm reasonably confident we'll hear Tom's interpretation on the effect of this on next week's FOMC meeting. An interpretation which would hold more weight than mie. (Goes without saying...) Dave Cameron p.s. IBD's front page reporting of the 30-yr. bond rate is back to reality. A one-day typo that was not acknow- ledged - maybe they were looking at 2-yr. bonds? ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Peter Christiansen Subject: [CANSLIM] Today's Investor's Corner Date: 29 Apr 1997 23:40:37 GMT+7 I read in the online version of IBD that William O'Neil will have comments in Tuesday's Investor's Corner column. Investor's Corner hasn't appeared in the online version for sometime. I was hoping that someone with access to the print version could post a summary of the article. Thanks in advance. Peter Christiansen Bangkok, Thailand Connected with OS/2 Warp 3.0 & The Post Road Mailer _____________________________________________________________________________________ "It compiled? The first screen came up? Ship it!" -- Bill Gates ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: PPNewell@aol.com Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Today's Investor's Corner Date: 29 Apr 1997 13:41:14 -0400 (EDT) Here it is: William O'Neil, founder and chairman of IBD, recently participated in an ''auditorium event'' on America Online in which he discussed current conditions in the stock market. In response to requests from readers, we've asked Mr. O'Neil to elaborate on the points made in that discussion. In this, the first of a three-part interview, he talks about the general market. Q: Are we in a bear market? A: Yes, I believe this is a normal or mild bear that began on Jan. 23 with the Nasdaq reversing on the largest one-day volume in six months. Q: What do you mean by a ''normal'' bear market? A: Normally in a bear market one of your key market averages is off 18% to 20% or more. If it's only off 10% or 15%, that might be termed an intermediate-term correction. That's based on past precedent. With the Dow representing only 30 stocks, and with institutions having enormous buying power, there's a tendency for the Dow to be propped up. So the market looks like it isn't quite as bad as it really is. But the reality is individual investors could get hurt because Podunk Electronics is down 60%. And they don't own Procter & Gamble (which has risen recently); they own Podunk Electronics. So you could have the Dow off by a mild or normal amount, but you could still do damage to a lot of individuals who don't know how to handle themselves in a market like this. They don't cut losses or get off margin. Q: What do you mean that institutions may be ''propping up'' the Dow? Do you mean they're just ''parking'' money in big, supposedly safe stocks until they decide what their next move is? A: There IS a certain amount of parking that goes on with some big-cap stocks -like Exxon or Disney or Pfizer or General Electric. These are stocks investors believe they don't have to worry about because they're steady, dependable, high quality. And even if they come off, they may come off only a few points - whereas something else comes off twice or three times as much. But when I talk about propping things up, I mean institutions go in and buy some General Electric and Procter & Gamble one day and those stocks move up a few points and that provides some support for the Dow. That probably serves an important function in that you don't create panic in the market. I'm not saying it's bad or wrong, but it does happen. Q: Has there been evidence of this recently? A: A week ago, when the Dow was up 173 points, it looked really fantastic. Meanwhile, every growth fund was DOWN for the day, which you don't see happen very often. That gave a little clue that investors ran a few things up -Procter & Gamble and General Electric and Merck - but it wasn't really quite as strong as it should have been. That's why IBD is so great. On the general market page (today on A25), you've got all these different indexes and you're watching what the leading stocks are doing and what the sectors are doing, and you see your growth sector didn't bounce at all. You can put it all together and see if the rally is for real or not. Anybody who understands this and looks at that page will have a tremendous feel for the market. They're not going to be sucked into something. They're going to realize there's a problem, and they're going to back away and raise at least a little cash. Q: When you say that a key index in a bear market may come off 18%- 20% or more, does that also apply to the Nasdaq? A: That's a little different, particularly in this cycle. The overspeculation for a few years was mainly in the Nasdaq high-techs, which by nature are twice as volatile and risky as other stocks. Many of these stocks went up five or 10 times - the Ascend Communications and Cascades and Ciscos - and a number of them have topped. A few may come back if they're really great and sound. But a fair number will probably come down twice as fast and may not lead in the next upcycle. So you could have the Dow off a certain percentage, but this sector could be off two to three times as much. The Nasdaq is weaker than your other indexes, and it's been underperforming for quite a while. When it comes down, it doesn't really rally, which implies that sooner or later you may have more damage to be done. Q: Should investors be looking for support levels? At Nasdaq 1200, for example, where it seems to have held five times in the last six months? A: The Nasdaq has broken sharply, gotten below its 200-day moving average, held below it and hasn't really rallied. Somebody might say, ''It's held at this level or that level.'' But my interpretation is it's dropped a lot and can't rally any substantial distance. That means it'll probably either have to put in an awful lot of time (moving sideways) or it's going to go lower. So the fact that it temporarily holds somewhere means nothing. Q: How much time before a bear market runs its course? A: I don't think any bear market gets over with it until it's had at least six or seven months' time. Typically, they've taken nine months. But for some of them, the time's been shortened a bit. So, if it topped on Jan. 23, you've probably got more rough weather with certain individual stocks until you get into June or July. You can't tell the market what to do. Q: How about individual investors -what do you tell them to do? A: They should keep in mind the methods we suggest, which is the need to learn how to interpret the market each day - the price and volume action on the Dow, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq. Look at them every day. In a market like this, it's critical to learn to interpret what the market says. If it's not following through right, for example, you can conclude the rally's failing. So now you need to cut back a little bit more. Q: What steps should investors take to protect themselves? A: The first rule is to cut your loss at 8% or 10%. If you've got something you bought at 50 and it's 45, cut back. Don't just sit there with the loss, because maybe it goes to 20. You don't know. Rule No. 2 is get off margin because you're in a tough market and why compound your problems by running the risk of losing twice as much? Rule No. 3 is don't average down in individual stocks. Q: Does that same rule hold true for mutual funds? A: Mutual funds are completely different. They're spread all over the place, so they'll come back with each new bull market. So I wouldn't sell a good fund. In an individual stock, you don't have any idea where it's going to go, and it may not necessarily come back. Q: If that's the case, should investors add even more money to their funds when they're down? A: It depends on the individual and their tolerance for taking risks. If I had a fund that was a really sound growth fund and it was off 25% to 30%, I think at some point it should be bought because two years later it's going to (be up). I look at that completely differently than I do stocks. Any one stock can go anywhere and may or may not come back. But a fund will always come back if it's a capable fund. I wouldn't sell a good fund even if it comes off more. (Tomorrow: The opportunities that lie immediately ahead.) //////////////////////////////////////////////////////////// Copyright (c) 1997 Investors Business Daily, All rights reserved. Investor's Business Daily - Investor's Corner (04/29/97) IBD Chairman O'Neil On The Stock Market Transmitted: 4/28/97 8:58 PM (r2afyttx) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Peter Christiansen Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Today's Investor's Corner Date: 30 Apr 1997 01:22:53 GMT+7 ** Reply to note from PPNewell@aol.com Tue, 29 Apr 1997 13:41:14 -0400 (EDT) > Here it is: Thanks! Did you get that online?? It didn't appear in my online version. Peter Christiansen Bangkok, Thailand Connected with OS/2 Warp 3.0 & The Post Road Mailer _____________________________________________________________________________________ I tried an internal modem, but it hurt when I walked. cc: PPNewell@aol.com ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Craig Griffin Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Today's Investor's Corner Date: 29 Apr 1997 14:25:24 -0400 Peter, Cool. How did you do that? I gather you did not type it based on the "transmitted" line. Or did you type it? Either way, thank you. I had not gotten my paper yet (comes in the mail) ... very nice to read this now. Thanks again! Regards, Craig At 01:41 PM 4/29/97 -0400, you wrote: >Here it is: > > William O'Neil, founder and chairman of IBD, recently participated in an ........... >//////////////////////////////////////////////////////////// >Copyright (c) 1997 Investors Business Daily, All rights reserved. >Investor's Business Daily - Investor's Corner (04/29/97) >IBD Chairman O'Neil On The Stock Market > > >Transmitted: 4/28/97 8:58 PM (r2afyttx) > > ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: derek b Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Re: Daily Graphs Online Date: 29 Apr 1997 16:01:38 -0400 Tom, Thanks for the heads up. Took a couple of hours for the activation and the software was unavailable for d/l until this PM, but I'm now a DG beta tester!!! Everyone should jump on this window of opprtunity. Not sure how long open enrollment will last. Beta (thus free) scheduled to last until July. Derek Tom Worley wrote: > Great news, Jody, how do they sign up (I suspect from my CC: line > you could get about a hundred of so new "beta testers" in the next > day or so!)? Do they just go to http://www.dailygraphs.com and sign > up as if they were subscribing? ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Craig Griffin Subject: [CANSLIM] Bull or Bear? (was Today's Investor's Corner) Date: 29 Apr 1997 16:02:20 -0400 On 4/29, IBD said >>>> > William O'Neil, founder and chairman of IBD, recently participated in an >''auditorium event'' > >Q: Are we in a bear market? > >A: Yes, I believe this is a normal or mild bear that began on Jan. 23 with >the Nasdaq reversing on the largest one-day volume in six months. > Mr. O'Neil, Then what about that followthrough day your newspaper mentioned last week on the S&P500. Some of us here on this list noticed it too. Did this simply indicate a short term uptrend in a bear market (ie. a rally w/in a bear)? I have to agree the markets do still look a bit weak, and so I did not jump in with both feet. But, I have been nibbling and things do seem ok after today's rally (Tuesday 4/29) and even when I was behind, the stocks I was holding seemed to be acting right. So what gives? Guess the followthrough is somehow not quite valid because the other divergences are still in place ... or is the interview old and so the market is now telling us something different? That would be fine and fits with your concept of "bending like a tree in the breeze", ie. reading what the market tells you today. But, in that case, better stop your editorial staff from publishing old news. If this is truely a kind of sucker rally (suck in the suckers), I'm lightly invested, so ok. If not, I'd like to up the weighting of my next purchases. How can we tell (watch and wait, I suppose)? Anybody got any insights? PS. I am finding that my workload is preventing as much focus on this list as I would like. So, probably I will be posting less than I have been even lately (can't believe I missed SRA, look at all those up volume days going back to 01/13, saying "buy me" and then the earnings news concurrent with the breakout ...). I did pick up BAANF, a day or two before you mentioned it, Tom. SYMC looks like it has potential, too, Tom. But don't like to buy 'em down in the base like that. Tempting, however. Just looking for the better ones like SRA and BAANF (ie. coming out of their bases, no overhead supply, great charts and fundies). Gotta be ready for the other good ones if this market continues to regain its footing (and to jump back to the sidelines if it doesn't). ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Michael A Langston Subject: re: [CANSLIM] Re: Daily Graphs Online Date: 29 Apr 1997 16:48:03 -0400 > Everyone should jump on this window of opprtunity. really? -- you mean it now works on unix??? mike langston ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: PPNewell@aol.com Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Today's Investor's Corner Date: 29 Apr 1997 16:52:24 -0400 (EDT) <> It was on AOL at 10:00 pm last night, not sure why the web site had nothing. Anyhow I will post the new one when I see it. Peter Newell ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Robert Gammon" Subject: re: [CANSLIM] Re: Daily Graphs Online Date: 29 Apr 1997 16:11:37 +0500 On Tue, 29 Apr 1997 16:48:03 -0400, Michael A Langston wrote: >> Everyone should jump on this window of opprtunity. > >really? -- you mean it now works on unix??? > >mike langston I visited the site, and found to my sorry that they still have this VERY narrow view of the world that only includes Win95/NT. Unix, OS/2, and Mac/PowerPc need not apply. We are not welcome. Hah, as though we are not serious investors who use the WWW, newsgroups, majordomo lists, e-mail, ftp, etc. It gives me concern about any subscription that I might make to any of their printed media. What might they do to it to exclude a certain class or classes of potential subscribers in North America, Europe, Asia? Daily Graphs, do you hear??? Boo, Hiss!!! *----------------------------------------------------------------------* Robert Gammon My opinions are my own. In no way do rgammon@micro.ti.com I represent the views of my employer Using OS/2 Warp Connect, and a user of every version of OS/2 since v1.0 *----------------------------------------------------------------------* ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Zoran Mitrovski Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Re: Daily Graphs Online Date: 29 Apr 1997 17:16:53 -0400 (EDT) > > > Everyone should jump on this window of opprtunity. > > really? -- you mean it now works on unix??? > > mike langston And on MacOS, too??? ;^) Zoran ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Craig Griffin Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] ECI/Durable Goods Date: 29 Apr 1997 17:34:44 -0400 Dave, You wrote: > >Well... the ECI rose just 0.6 percent in the first quarter, less >than the economists 'average' ... > >In addition, durable goods orders for March were reported to >have fallen 3.0 percent ( I think economists expected roughly >flat - if I remember correctly ). February orders, originally >reported as having been up 1.5 percent were revised to an 0.8 >percent increase. > >Based on this, I don't think a .50 hike is in the offing. >... If you are correct and the markets do continue in a renewed uptrend ... then, the 1% followthrough on the S&P will have "predicted" that the economic news this week would be such that the market would continue to stablize. And, MSFT would have been the leader ... leading the market out of its near term doldrums. And thus an early warning "buy" signal, even before the S&P follow-through. See my related post questioning whether this is a rally in a bear market or the renewal of the uptrend. Craig ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: David F. Cameron Subject: re: [CANSLIM] Re: Daily Graphs Online Date: 29 Apr 1997 16:35:31 CDT I sent a couple messages to the Daily Graphs on-line people who've identified themselves on this list. They are generally in agree- ment - that the site should use Java and be platform independent. Top management at DG, however, does not agree. I'm sure DG-On-Line will make money - and that is their primary motivation, right? Perhaps they think the cost of adding non-Win95/NT users is not worth the expected return. FWIW, I just bought a new PC for home (even though I use UNIX at work). It uses the new AMD-k6 chip and Win95. I feel like SUCH a conformist ;-( > > On Tue, 29 Apr 1997 16:48:03 -0400, Michael A Langston wrote: > > >> Everyone should jump on this window of opprtunity. > > > >really? -- you mean it now works on unix??? > > > >mike langston > > I visited the site, and found to my sorry that they still > have this VERY narrow view of the world that only includes > Win95/NT. Unix, OS/2, and Mac/PowerPc need not apply. > We are not welcome. Hah, as though we are not serious > investors who use the WWW, newsgroups, majordomo lists, > e-mail, ftp, etc. It gives me concern about any > subscription that I might make to any of their printed > media. What might they do to it to exclude a certain > class or classes of potential subscribers in North > America, Europe, Asia? Daily Graphs, do you hear??? > Boo, Hiss!!! > > *----------------------------------------------------------------------* > Robert Gammon My opinions are my own. In no way do > rgammon@micro.ti.com I represent the views of my employer > Using OS/2 Warp Connect, and a user of every version of OS/2 since v1.0 > *----------------------------------------------------------------------* > > > ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: David F. Cameron Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] ECI/Durable Goods Date: 29 Apr 1997 16:38:36 CDT > > If you are correct and the markets do continue in a renewed uptrend ... > then, the 1% followthrough on the S&P will have "predicted" that the > economic news this week would be such that the market would continue to > stablize. > Does anyone have A/D info yet? Tom has been saying how non-broad-based this 'rally' is - with declines outnumbering advances on many S&P up days... Just wondering if this rally was enough to give a strongly positive A/D ratio. Dave Cameron ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Nicholas P. Callahan" Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] ECI/Durable Goods Date: 29 Apr 1997 16:07:51 -0700 ------ =_NextPart_000_01BC54B7.8C97D3C0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="us-ascii" Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit NYSE A/D Issues 2091 to 526 680 UNCH ASE A/D Issues 328/196 193 UNCH NASDAQ A/D Issues 1949/1186 765UNCH >Does anyone have A/D info yet? Tom has been saying how non-broad-based this 'rally' is - with declines outnumbering advances on many S&P up days... Just wondering if this rally was enough to give a strongly positive A/D ratio. 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Anticipating a near-future with wireless capabilities well beyond the car phone, engineers at a Daimler-Benz research center in Silicon Valley on Wednesday will roll out a Mercedes E420 equipped to give driver and passengers full access to the World Wide Web. The engineers and programmers -- who have outfitted the Mercedes with more personal computers, flat-panel screens and network connections than are found in most modern offices -- take pains to note that their "Web Car" is a only a technology demonstration and that commercial applications are probably five years or more in the future. http://www.nytimes.com/library/cyber/week/042997benz.html Or, if you'd rather keep your Jaguar: AT&T Wireless Services announced a content deal with Bloomberg Financial Markets on Monday that will make data from the Bloomberg Web site accessible from AT&T's new Internet cellular phones. The PocketNet phone looks like a typical cell phone, but contains a cellular modem which enables customers to access text data from Web sites. When the phone is turned on, it automatically dials into a network, which can be personalized to include a subscriber's company Intranet. http://www.nytimes.com/library/cyber/week/042997bloomberg-side.html Derek ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Jimmy Sorrells Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] ECI/Durable Goods Date: 29 Apr 1997 19:48:16 -0500 > Does anyone have A/D info yet? Tom has been saying how non-broad-based > this 'rally' is - with declines outnumbering advances on many S&P up > days... Just wondering if this rally was enough to give a strongly > positive A/D ratio. > According to briefing.com: NYSE Advancers - 2101 Decliners - 532 Up Volume - 462 Down Vol - 53 Dow - +180 Nasdaq - +25 30 Year Bond - 95.17 Wow. Pretty broad. Is it a new spring or a warm winters' day? Jimmy Sorrells ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: PPNewell@aol.com Subject: [CANSLIM] Wednesday Investor's Corner with O'Neil Part 2-3 Date: 29 Apr 1997 21:05:26 -0400 (EDT) Here's part two: In the second of a three-part interview with IBD's founder and chairman, William O'Neil discusses the conditions -and opportunities - that are present when a bear market turns to a bull. Q: You said a difficult market could last six months or more on average. How will investors know when this period has ended and a new major bull phase is under way? A: You'll have a major follow-through in the market average with real power, huge volume and some new stocks jumping up six or eight points - just as Cisco Systems, PeopleSoft and Ascend came off the bottom in the last bear market. The big leaders come one after another for six or eight weeks, once you've bottomed. The daily Dow, the daily S&P 500 and the daily Nasdaq - all of which are on IBD's general market indicators page -will tell you when that happens. But you have to learn to interpret them. Q: Why don't more people see market turns? A: The experts will be saying, ''Uh oh, the economy's started to slow down'' and ''XYZ Co. just went bankrupt'' and ''Boy, things are really bad.'' So the news is bad, and all the advisors are scared. And you've gone through six, eight, nine months of a poor period, so everybody's now accepted the fact that it's pretty terrible. Nobody's got the nerve to buy anything. So you're sitting there frozen, licking old wounds because you've been kicked around for six, eight, nine months. You haven't got the guts to go in there and buy the next Microsoft or Cisco. IBD's market page tells you when it turns. It says, ''I don't care what you think, what you believe or how scared you are. I'm now in a major uptrend, and you better pay attention.'' Just at that point, the greatest opportunities of the next three or four years will be popping out one after another all over the place. That's why nobody should ever think of saying, ''Oh well, the market's not so good,'' or ''I'm out of the market,'' or something like that. What's happening is you're setting up new bases for all the new leaders that in the next cycle are going to go up five or 10 times like Microsoft and Cisco did. Only it'll be new names. You don't know for sure which ones they'll be, but as soon as that market turns, they'll start jumping out right and left. That is absolutely the worst time for anybody to get scared or frightened. Q: How about those investors lucky enough to own the stocks that went up five or 10 times, but which have since dropped? A: I've got a whole chapter in my book (How To Make Money In Stocks) that lists about 20 different, specific things that happen when a stock that's had a major move up finally tops. There are lots of clues. One, perhaps, has had a climax top. Another may have split for the second time in a row and it gapped up when it was very extended. That usually happens a day or two before it tops. Another may show major deceleration in its growth rate, in both earnings and sales, and it's already up eight times in price. Still another might be owned by 25 institutions, and they have 800,000 shares apiece, and the stock's in an industry that, unlike before, is now in an overcapacity situation, like networking. Another stock may be coming down and then break badly on bad news and can't rally. Q: Is it possible for a leading stock to act normally through a bear market, if it doesn't come off more than a certain percent? A: Youcan have a few leaders that'll come off a normal amount. Say, the bear market was off 20% and some big leaders are off 50%, 60%, 70%, but a few only came off 20% to 25%. Relatively, that would be pretty good. That tells you that maybe this one has something better going on and that it could come out of it and maybe go again. So a few of them could come out and move, but you've got to let the market interpret that for you. Once you come off the bottom of the market, you're not looking at the stock that's down the most - like this one was $90 and went to $20, so that makes it a better buy. You're looking for the one that was $90 and it only came off to $75 or $70, or 25% to 30%. Normal bases can be off 25% to 30%, and there's nothing wrong with that at all. Q: How do you spot leaders of the next bull? A: Stocks that began to perform late in the last cycle - such as Compaq -could lead in the next cycle. But normally, each new bull market is led by newer names, and more than half of them will be stocks that were new issues in the last few years. Stocks like Manugistics, Harbinger or Qiagen may come out, along with names like Baan or Smart Modular. That's the great thing about this country: We're an entrepreneurial America, and IBD's New America page shows you the new names. The entrepreneur is still out there doing his thing. His stock isn't going to go anywhere while you're in a tough market. It'll go back and forth and maybe come off a bit. But as soon as the pressure of the market is out of the way, you've got this company that's maybe done eight quarters in a row with earnings up very strong - 50% or 100%. They have this new product that's selling pretty well, and most people aren't aware of their name because it's a relatively new issue. And THAT'S one of your new leaders. If investors study my book, get some of our tapes and learn from IBD, they'll find the symptoms are always the same - the sales growth, the earnings growth, the new product, the price action, the volume action and the institutions becoming attracted to it as it's breaking out. Q: Investing in companies you've never heard of can be a little scary, can't it? A: That's where the public has the most trouble. If everybody's honest with themselves and they go back to the last bottom, how many of them knew Cisco Systems? They said, ''Cisco what?'' They'd never heard of it. Or PeopleSoft - ''PeopleSoft what?'' That's why they miss these, because they're not on top of them. IBD is designed to highlight those things and bring them to the surface if investors will just do a little bit of work. And the general market page will tell them when the bear phase is finally over and it's time to go looking for these things. The biggest mistake a person can make is to not be ready when they ring the bell and a whole new round is started. You don't want to be off on vacation then, twiddling your thumbs, not paying attention. You want to be right on top of it, because there's the opportunity you've been waiting a year or two for. When all these new things happen, are you there or aren't you? Either you are or you aren't. If you aren't, you miss it. So, you've fouled up for another three or four years. Q: How exactly do investors find the strongest stocks at the beginning of a new bull market? A: The pressure of the market has held these stocks down. And when the pressure is finally off, the strongest one moves immediately because there are institutions that know these companies are good. As soon as they think the market has turned, they step in and buy half a million shares. Look at Cisco. Right at the bottom of the last bear market it had a shakeout and then turned and was up nine points that week. And that's when it was a $20 stock. If investors didn't miss it, because they were scared and weren't watching the general market when it turned, they did well. If they had heard of the name, but didn't buy it because it was trading at 30-40 times earnings, they also missed it because they were afraid to pay that high a P-E. All the psychology is set up for the typical investor to miss the really outstanding companies. The odds of his getting them are very low because he's not on top of the job, he doesn't know what he's looking for and he's scared when he should realize the greatest opportunities are right there. Q: We had two pretty strong follow-through days in recent sessions. Are those opportunities at hand? A: The Dow DID follow through last week, and yesterday was another follow through that included the Nasdaq. You could get to a new high on the Dow. But the questions remain: Will small investors make money at this stage? If not, how much time will have to be put in before small investors are able to really make money? And will newer names come to the forefront? ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: GoldFish Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] longterm inflation-corrected DJT DJU DJI Date: 29 Apr 1997 21:34:27 -0700 Great post, Derek! -- GoldFish "Every stock is a bad stock..." derek b wrote: > > Very interesting charts. > Longterm inflation-corrected comparison of DJ Transports, Utilities, > Industrials. > > http://cpcug.org/user/invest/djtcon.gif > http://cpcug.org/user/invest/djucon.gif > http://cpcug.org/user/invest/djicon.gif > > And some explanation: > http://cpcug.org/user/invest/inflcorp.html > > Derek ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Bull or Bear? (was Today's Investor's Corner) Date: 29 Apr 1997 21:46:39 -0400 Stay with the big cap, highly liquid ones, IMHO. That's where the institutional dollars will flow, as seen today. And if today is not followed by three more days of solid, non-inflationary reports, at least misery likes company. Anyone recall the last trading session where we saw the Russell 2000 up over 1%? I can't, it's been that long. Impressive day, even if it only lasts for Tuesday! tom w ---------- > From: Craig Griffin > To: canslim@mail.xmission.com > Subject: [CANSLIM] Bull or Bear? (was Today's Investor's Corner) > Date: Tuesday, April 29, 1997 4:02 PM > > On 4/29, IBD said >>>> > > > William O'Neil, founder and chairman of IBD, recently participated in an > >''auditorium event'' > > > >Q: Are we in a bear market? > > > >A: Yes, I believe this is a normal or mild bear that began on Jan. 23 with > >the Nasdaq reversing on the largest one-day volume in six months. > > > Mr. O'Neil, > > Then what about that followthrough day your newspaper mentioned last week on > the S&P500. Some of us here on this list noticed it too. Did this simply > indicate a short term uptrend in a bear market (ie. a rally w/in a bear)? I > have to agree the markets do still look a bit weak, and so I did not jump in > with both feet. But, I have been nibbling and things do seem ok after > today's rally (Tuesday 4/29) and even when I was behind, the stocks I was > holding seemed to be acting right. So what gives? Guess the followthrough > is somehow not quite valid because the other divergences are still in place > ... or is the interview old and so the market is now telling us something > different? That would be fine and fits with your concept of "bending like a > tree in the breeze", ie. reading what the market tells you today. But, in > that case, better stop your editorial staff from publishing old news. If > this is truely a kind of sucker rally (suck in the suckers), I'm lightly > invested, so ok. If not, I'd like to up the weighting of my next purchases. > How can we tell (watch and wait, I suppose)? > > Anybody got any insights? > > PS. I am finding that my workload is preventing as much focus on this list > as I would like. So, probably I will be posting less than I have been even > lately (can't believe I missed SRA, look at all those up volume days going > back to 01/13, saying "buy me" and then the earnings news concurrent with > the breakout ...). I did pick up BAANF, a day or two before you mentioned > it, Tom. SYMC looks like it has potential, too, Tom. But don't like to > buy 'em down in the base like that. Tempting, however. Just looking for > the better ones like SRA and BAANF (ie. coming out of their bases, no > overhead supply, great charts and fundies). Gotta be ready for the other > good ones if this market continues to regain its footing (and to jump back > to the sidelines if it doesn't). > ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] ECI/Durable Goods Date: 29 Apr 1997 21:57:41 -0400 Sorry, still in shock, trying to recover from major embarrassment. Fortunately, no "professional" economists could have predicted today either. Am encouraged, definitely takes the heat off the Feds for the moment. But remember, today is the "first quarter" (to use the vernacular being bandied about today). The game just started, we have three more days of sig economic reports to endure. If this trend should hold, we are well on our way to over 7000 and new highs with no fear of a rate hike. On the other hand, if tomorrow we get an inflationary report, stand by for action to the down side. Keep in mind, the market wants to believe there will not be a rate hike in May, so any evidence that supports this is welcomed. I do think, and I frankly haven't had the time yet (now almost 10PM) to yet study the raw data, that this takes a lot of pressure off the Feds for a 50bp hike, but not yet convinced that a 25bp hike out of order. My only consolation is that about a week ago I firmly stated, without qualification or equivacation, that "the correction is over". Maybe I can be at least partially right? tom w ---------- > From: David F. Cameron > To: canslim@xmission.com > Subject: [CANSLIM] ECI/Durable Goods > Date: Tuesday, April 29, 1997 10:06 AM > > > Well... the ECI rose just 0.6 percent in the first quarter, less > than the economists 'average' - and less than Tom had predicted. > Although, Tom is probably just as happy to be wrong. > > (See Tom, I point out when you're wrong ... you were > complaining that no one lauded your IBM pick - so what the > heck - I'll mention your overestimate. But... please don`t > take it wrong. I respect your knowledge and judgment, I just > have to have SOME fun...) > > In addition, durable goods orders for March were reported to > have fallen 3.0 percent ( I think economists expected roughly > flat - if I remember correctly ). February orders, originally > reported as having been up 1.5 percent were revised to an 0.8 > percent increase. > > Based on this, I don't think a .50 hike is in the offing. I think > this has turned the tide back to .25. Can I beat Tom to be > on record for this? Of course, he may have come to the same > conclusion. Anyway... I'm reasonably confident we'll hear Tom's > interpretation on the effect of this on next week's FOMC meeting. > An interpretation which would hold more weight than mie. > (Goes without saying...) > > Dave Cameron > > > p.s. IBD's front page reporting of the 30-yr. bond rate is > back to reality. A one-day typo that was not acknow- > ledged - maybe they were looking at 2-yr. bonds? ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] ECI/Durable Goods Date: 29 Apr 1997 21:59:55 -0400 Advance/decline as well as new high/lows was far better that we have been seeing on both NYSE and NASDAQ. Now, that's history, what will Wednesday bring? As I have said in several prior posts, I think the worst of the downside is done with, the question remains when we will see stable and steady upside? tom w ---------- > From: David F. Cameron > To: canslim@mail.xmission.com > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] ECI/Durable Goods > Date: Tuesday, April 29, 1997 5:38 PM > > > > > If you are correct and the markets do continue in a renewed uptrend ... > > then, the 1% followthrough on the S&P will have "predicted" that the > > economic news this week would be such that the market would continue to > > stablize. > > > Does anyone have A/D info yet? Tom has been saying how non-broad-based > this 'rally' is - with declines outnumbering advances on many S&P up > days... Just wondering if this rally was enough to give a strongly > positive A/D ratio. > > Dave Cameron ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Re: Daily Graphs Online Date: 29 Apr 1997 22:04:57 -0400 For what it's worth, I would encourage (Jody, close your eyes, your are not supposed to read this traitorous post) everyone, or at least those that use platforms other than Win95/NT, to call and complain to IBD and post email complaints to DG Online. Yeah, they don't want to be swamped with email, but they need to visualize the size of the community they are excluding unneccasarily. They also need to realize that CANSLIMers are not only found on the "mainsteam" platforms. tom w ---------- > From: David F. Cameron > To: canslim@mail.xmission.com > Subject: re: [CANSLIM] Re: Daily Graphs Online > Date: Tuesday, April 29, 1997 5:35 PM > > I sent a couple messages to the Daily Graphs on-line people who've > identified themselves on this list. They are generally in agree- > ment - that the site should use Java and be platform independent. > > Top management at DG, however, does not agree. I'm sure DG-On-Line > will make money - and that is their primary motivation, right? > Perhaps they think the cost of adding non-Win95/NT users is not > worth the expected return. > > FWIW, I just bought a new PC for home (even though I use UNIX > at work). It uses the new AMD-k6 chip and Win95. I feel > like SUCH a conformist ;-( > > > > On Tue, 29 Apr 1997 16:48:03 -0400, Michael A Langston wrote: > > > > >> Everyone should jump on this window of opprtunity. > > > > > >really? -- you mean it now works on unix??? > > > > > >mike langston > > > > I visited the site, and found to my sorry that they still > > have this VERY narrow view of the world that only includes > > Win95/NT. Unix, OS/2, and Mac/PowerPc need not apply. > > We are not welcome. Hah, as though we are not serious > > investors who use the WWW, newsgroups, majordomo lists, > > e-mail, ftp, etc. It gives me concern about any > > subscription that I might make to any of their printed > > media. What might they do to it to exclude a certain > > class or classes of potential subscribers in North > > America, Europe, Asia? Daily Graphs, do you hear??? > > Boo, Hiss!!! > > > > *------------------------------------------------------------------- ---* > > Robert Gammon My opinions are my own. In no way do > > rgammon@micro.ti.com I represent the views of my employer > > Using OS/2 Warp Connect, and a user of every version of OS/2 since v1.0 > > *------------------------------------------------------------------- ---* > > > > > > > ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Craig Griffin Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] ECI/Durable Goods Date: 29 Apr 1997 22:21:11 -0400 At 07:48 PM 4/29/97 -0500, you wrote: >> Does anyone have A/D info yet? Tom has been saying how non-broad-based >> this 'rally' is - with declines outnumbering advances on many S&P up >> days... Just wondering if this rally was enough to give a strongly >> positive A/D ratio. >> > Here is the nightly report heading from Quotes Plus: Daily Market Report for 04/29/1997 Index Summary Index Close Change Volume !DJ30 Dow Industrials 6962.03 +179.01 +2.64% 551.25 mil shares !DJ20 Dow Transports 2569.15 +37.30 +1.47% !DJ15 Dow Utilities 216.39 +2.93 +1.37% !COMP Nasdaq Composite 1242.63 +25.60 +2.10% 573.42 mil shares !XAX American Exchange 548.03 +6.83 +1.26% 19.55 mil shares !NYA NYSE Composite 413.62 +9.93 +2.46% New Highs New Lows Advances Declines Unchanged NYSE 78 37 2091 527 681 AMEX 16 13 313 192 186 NASDAQ 77 201 2330 1553 1864 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Peter Christiansen Subject: re: [CANSLIM] Re: Daily Graphs Online Date: 30 Apr 1997 09:33:49 GMT+7 ** Reply to note from "Robert Gammon" Tue, 29 Apr 97 16:11:37 +0500 > I visited the site, and found to my sorry that they still > have this VERY narrow view of the world that only includes > Win95/NT. Unix, OS/2, and Mac/PowerPc need not apply. > We are not welcome. Hah, as though we are not serious > investors who use the WWW, newsgroups, majordomo lists, > e-mail, ftp, etc. It gives me concern about any > subscription that I might make to any of their printed > media. What might they do to it to exclude a certain > class or classes of potential subscribers in North > America, Europe, Asia? Daily Graphs, do you hear??? > Boo, Hiss!!! My sentiments exactly! Peter Christiansen Bangkok, Thailand Connected with OS/2 Warp 3.0 & The Post Road Mailer _____________________________________________________________________________________ Stealing taglines? Book him for "grand theft motto"! ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Peter Christiansen Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Re: How is Daily Graphs Online working this morning? Date: 30 Apr 1997 10:50:43 GMT+7 ** Reply to note from "Tom Worley" Tue, 29 Apr 1997 07:43:04 -0400 > We are now welcoming everyone as beta testers so please > spread the word. > > Thank you, > > Jody Mulkey > ---------- Everyone??? Really??? Oh, you mean if I junk the operating system (OS/2 Warp) that I have been using happily for the past seven years? In case you weren't aware, "everyone" does NOT use Windows 95/NT. Get with it. The future is platform independent Java. Peter Christiansen Bangkok, Thailand Connected with OS/2 Warp 3.0 & The Post Road Mailer _____________________________________________________________________________________ What do you mean you "formatted the cat"?!?! cc: Jody Mulkey ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Peter Christiansen Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] ECI/Durable Goods Date: 30 Apr 1997 10:50:59 GMT+7 ** Reply to note from "Tom Worley" Tue, 29 Apr 1997 21:57:41 -0400 > My only consolation is that about a week ago I firmly stated, > without qualification or equivacation, that "the correction is > over". Maybe I can be at least partially right? I'll give you credit where credit deserved. You called that very well. Last night I closed out all shorts except Boeing. Peter Christiansen Bangkok, Thailand Connected with OS/2 Warp 3.0 & The Post Road Mailer _____________________________________________________________________________________ Real programmers use COPY CON PROGRAM.EXE ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: OWENTIME@delphi.com Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] ECI/Durable Goods Date: 30 Apr 1997 02:10:59 -0400 (EDT) As a novice I'm trying to learn more about these market trends and corrctions: Today, being #2 biggest DOW gain (#1 being just after '87 crash) I can'tt help but wonder how nice this market is as long as short sellers buy back and overboost the market, but what about testing the floor on this market soon before saying the "correction is set, complete and safe to trade in." The profits from downsizing won't be as fat, and several news services reported that mutuals are down 20% from this time last year, so why can 't one expect 5400 before mid summer? Is this artificial glumness on the part of the Japanese hinting at more stability for a high flying dollar in need of more grounding? One financial reporter commented that interest rates peaked in Japan and then deflated into their present level around 2% that they can't seem to shake; and whether or not one can jump to conclusions and say interest rate deflation is possible after May as we head for a small recession in'98 remains an unknown. Many commentators have said if interest rates increase above 8% then stocks indeed get a downward trend rest; but again, that seems a "what if" thhat probably won't happen this year, with most seeing Fed rate reductions toward the Fall. Opinions? BTW one stock of interest for CANSLIM: PRIMUS TELECOM around 8 1/2 with 300+ million revenue on local\long distance service. Your opinionis on Primus appreciated. Warren Kent ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] ECI/Durable Goods Date: 30 Apr 1997 07:12:08 -0400 If it were me, I'd probably close out BA as well, damage already done from missing estimates, they have a large backlog and are regularly getting new contracts even tho competition stiff. Earnings may remain down a little from historic patterns as they invest further in new designs, but from what they said, sounds like they are going to concentrate for now on "minor" model changes from existing popular ones rather than trying to come up with an entirely new plane, so this may cut the r&d cost considerably and boost profits. tom w ---------- > From: Peter Christiansen > To: canslim@mail.xmission.com > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] ECI/Durable Goods > Date: Wednesday, April 30, 1997 6:50 AM > Last night I closed > out all shorts except Boeing. > > ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: [CANSLIM] Economic Reports Date: 30 Apr 1997 08:00:06 -0400 On ECI, the surprisingly low nr was caused by the "benefits (including health costs)" portion coming in at only up 0.1%, so this element is still benefiting by lower health costs, which was expected to finally start showing increases. Doesn't mean it won't in the future, however most health plans do most of their premium increases in the first qtr so does suggest costs may remain low for the rest of the year. Salaries and other comp were up 0.9% as expected, however remember that end of year bonuses and stuff largely show up in Q1, so this suggests to me that future ECI reports may be benign for some time (maybe also rest of year). On durable goods, the 3.0% drop even more notable (0.3% up expected) since Feb was also revised downward. Originally reported as 1.5% up, now revised to up 0.8%. Maybe James is right, Mr G should slap himself on the hand, he was premature and should have cut rates instead of raising them? Don't lose sight of the fact that this was the first of four days of economic reports, altho my read right now is that the rest won't hurt us in any big way, and several may help. New updates: Q1 GDP - expected at 4%, altho this includes about a 2 pt decrease due to trade imbalance, real economic activity was thus considerably higher. Q4 by comparison was 3.8% but without such a large correction from trade imbalance, so Q1's report appears likely to understate increased economic activity. Right now, early indications for Q2 just starting is in the 2 to 2.5% range. Employment nrs - weekly initial unemployment claims is expected to again rise, marking the fourth straight week in the avg going up, thus I see Friday's employment report being in line or maybe even a tad milder than expected, however economists are beginning to lose their fear of high employment automatically translating into inflation, so this report, while still important, is loosing some of its historic influence in moving the mkt. It will serve, however to help confirm yesterday's ECI report. Consensus of 50 economists is that non-farm payrolls will be up 210,000. This is up from March's 175,000 but down from the 1st qtr's avg of 242,000. The overall range of estimates is 149K to 275K. Median est for overall unemployment is 5.2% with the range from 5.0% to 5.3%. Personal income/spending for March - seen as slowing, expectation is for up 0.4%, on income this is a sharp drop from Feb when it increased 0.9% (possibly skewed by end of yr bonuses paid late as well as promotions and raises). This report is due out Thursday morning at 8:30AM. tom w Any opinions are strictly my own and not that of my employer. My comments are based on a variety of sources and are intended strictly to assist and inform. In no way am I suggesting a buy, sell, or hold decision based on my comments or observations. I always urge an investor to do his or her own homework, and be sure the risk of the market can be tolerated and any losses accepted gracefully. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Robert Gammon" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] ECI/Durable Goods Date: 30 Apr 1997 07:31:34 +0500 On Wed, 30 Apr 1997 02:10:59 -0400 (EDT), OWENTIME@delphi.com wrote: >As a novice I'm trying to learn more about these market trends and corrctions: >Today, being #2 biggest DOW gain (#1 being just after '87 crash) I can'tt >help but wonder how nice this market is as long as short sellers buy back >and overboost the market, but what about testing the floor on this market >soon before saying the "correction is set, complete and safe to trade in." It is worth noting that in percentage terms, yesterday doesn't even come close to the top 10 percentage gains in the DJIA history. The 1987 gain is the only recent gain to make the top ten. All the rest are in the 1920's and 1930's. A gain of more than 600 points, almost 700 would be required to equal the 1987 gain in percentage terms. A good number to be sure, but I'm not certain that it is the sort of bullish market change that WON looks for to indicate a change in market direction. Now, if we string a few of these together, hmmm...... *----------------------------------------------------* Robert Gammon My opinions are my own. rgammon@micro.ti.com In no way am I representing 281-274-3299 voice the views of my employer. 281-274-2558 fax *----------------------------------------------------* ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: David F. Cameron Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Economic Reports Date: 30 Apr 1997 7:47:30 CDT > as 1.5% up, now revised to up 0.8%. Maybe James is right, Mr G > should slap himself on the hand, he was premature and should have > cut rates instead of raising them? I wouldn't jump to this conclusion yet... > Q1 GDP - expected at 4%, altho this includes about a 2 pt decrease > due to trade imbalance, real economic activity was thus > considerably higher. Q4 by comparison was 3.8% but without such a Came in at 5.6% Could be a rough day. Will be interesting to see how the market takes it. Dave Cameron ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: derek b Subject: [CANSLIM] Watch candidates Date: 30 Apr 1997 09:06:03 -0400 Watch candidates for possible trading buys today. Need volume over avg. and up price action. Not convinced Bull has resumed, but volatility can yield short term trades. CMT cci 37.125 IMAXF fe macd 36.375 MRII ap cci macd 12.5 PFGC fe cci macd 20.375 DO cci 65.00 OAKF cci macd 16.00 PCU macd fe 17.875 All picked through TA screens; earnings and other fundies checked on DG online (excellent service - sure hope searching, and data capture into Excel are part of future plans). On the operating platform issue, we all know how rabid users can be over their favorite OS and hardware. But from a business and investment point of view, I am amused by the whining that DG is not supported on platforms that have a miniscule market share among investors that could potentially subscribe to this service. For a CANSLIM group supposedly with an eye to fundies, I find it very ironic to even imagine that a business decision could be made to support such multiple OS. Now, a Java app would seem to make marketing sense. Derek ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Jay Cliburn" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Re: Daily Graphs Online Date: 30 Apr 1997 07:21:02 -0600 > FWIW, I just bought a new PC for home (even though I use UNIX > at work). It uses the new AMD-k6 chip and Win95. I feel > like SUCH a conformist ;-( Aw, don't worry about it David. Just reformat your disk and load up Linux. You'll be fine. :-) Computing daily (and DGOL-less) with Unix, -- Jay Cliburn | Space Dynamics Laboratory Computational Sciences Division | 1747 North Research Park Way Jay.Cliburn@sdl.usu.edu | Logan, Utah, USA 84341 (801) 755-4317 (voice) | (801) 755-4366 (fax) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: David F. Cameron Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Re: Daily Graphs Online Date: 30 Apr 1997 8:24:28 CDT > > > FWIW, I just bought a new PC for home (even though I use UNIX > > at work). It uses the new AMD-k6 chip and Win95. I feel > > like SUCH a conformist ;-( > > Aw, don't worry about it David. Just reformat your disk and > load up Linux. You'll be fine. :-) Actually I am seriously consider partitioning my hard drive to be able to boot off LINUX as well as win95. Have you done this? > > Computing daily (and DGOL-less) with Unix, > -- > Jay Cliburn | Space Dynamics Laboratory > Computational Sciences Division | 1747 North Research Park Way > Jay.Cliburn@sdl.usu.edu | Logan, Utah, USA 84341 > (801) 755-4317 (voice) | (801) 755-4366 (fax) > > ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Brenda" Subject: [CANSLIM] Interest Rates - Gov Angell Comments Date: 30 Apr 1997 08:37:32 -0500 For those interested in Fmr. Fed Reserve Gov. Wayne Angell's comments on interest rates and whether or not they will be raised/lowered at the next FOMC meeting you can listen to 5 minutes worth of his commentary at the following: http://www.msnbc.com/news/COM_Front.asp then go to the NBC bus. video section and double click on the article. Just provided for those interested. James ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Brenda" Subject: [CANSLIM] Specific Stocks Date: 30 Apr 1997 09:07:54 -0500 Hi Group, Been asked privately by several what are the stocks in the largest portfolio that I manage. I see no problem in divulging these as already in and watching. They are: GBE, CPB, ALTR, ASTSF, USLD, MK, BCF, WBPR, SFDS and RXR. Use the info if you can. Have a good day. James P.S. - There are currently MORE good looking stocks that I would like to be in than I have funds to invest. My "Wall Chart Model" of 40 stocks, when averaging the stock prices, has hit new highs each day for 14 out of the last 15 trading days. Has only ONE day that the average price of the group was down. James ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Hemant Rotithor Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Re: How is Daily Graphs Online working this morning? Date: 30 Apr 1997 10:07:30 -0400 Jody I have tried to register 5-6 times since yesterday evening and today morning (at 10am)(apr 30), everytime I get connection timed out for registration. Is the server down? or is there something else that I am missing? I had a suggestion about the registration screen. When the information is filled in and for any reason one is not able to register, it requires you to fill in ALL the information again (once per try) and does not keep the information entered for the next try, that is very frustrating as I have entered the info 5-6 times since yesterday and have not been able to register yet. It would be good to keep the registration info around so that it does not have to be entered again. Thanks for your response in advance. Hemant Rotithor -- Disclaimer: Opinions expressed in this document are those of the author. Digital Equipment Corp., 110 Spit Brook Rd, ZKO2-3/N30, Nashua, NH 03062 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: jeff@scrooge.idec.sdl.usu.edu (Jeff Salisbury) Subject: [CANSLIM] Xmission ANNOUNCEMENT: Mail server upgrade Date: 30 Apr 1997 08:37:41 -0600 Everyone, I wanted to forward this to the canslim list for each participants "FYI". I hope we will see some noticable benefits from this upgrade. Best Regards, Jeff Salisbury - CANSLIM list admin --- Forwarded mail from Pete Ashdown Resent-From: announce@xmission.com Resent-Date: Tue, 29 Apr 1997 17:14:26 -0600 The mail server, mail.xmission.com will be going down for approximately half an hour starting at 5:30 PM today. The processors on this Sparc 10 machine are being upgraded from dual Supersparc 51's (51 mhz) to dual Hypersparc 125's (125 mhz). This will help significantly in the amount of mail processing this machine does. Additional drives are also planned for this machine in the near future. This has been an XMission Announcement. Past announcements are available at: WWW - http://www.xmission.com/cgi-bin/announcements User FTP - /archive/announce on ftp.xmission.com News - xmission.announce ---End of forwarded mail from Pete Ashdown ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: PPNewell@aol.com Subject: [CANSLIM] Best Brokers Date: 30 Apr 1997 10:42:12 -0400 (EDT) I was wondering who the best brokers are for users with lots of trades like CANSLIM and possibly options are. Or, if there are any accounts with a 1-2% of account size for unlimited trading. Thanks, Peter Newell ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Nicholas P. Callahan" Subject: [CANSLIM] Wake up and smell the money! Breakout alert INVX Date: 30 Apr 1997 07:55:23 -0700 Folks, This is breakout time on a previously mentioned stock INVX. One hour into the trading day stock has done it average daily volume. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Brenda" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Wake up and smell the money! Breakout alert INVX Date: 30 Apr 1997 10:14:57 -0500 10AM CST update on INVX Top of Upper Right Side Of Cup: 30 3/4 Breaks Into New High Ground At: 33 3/4 Shares Traded At 10 AM: 582,000 Price At 10 AM: 33 1/8, up 3 3/4 ---------- > From: Nicholas P. Callahan > To: 'C-A-N S-L-I-M' > Subject: [CANSLIM] Wake up and smell the money! Breakout alert INVX > Date: Wednesday, April 30, 1997 9:55 AM > > Folks, > > This is breakout time on a previously mentioned stock INVX. One hour into the trading day stock has done it average daily volume. > ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Peter Christiansen Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Watch candidates Date: 30 Apr 1997 20:39:13 GMT+7 ** Reply to note from derek b Wed, 30 Apr 1997 09:06:03 -0400 > On the operating platform issue, we all know how rabid users can be over > their favorite OS and hardware. But from a business and investment > point of view, I am amused by the whining that DG is not supported on > platforms that have a miniscule market share among investors that could > potentially subscribe to this service. For a CANSLIM group supposedly > with an eye to fundies, I find it very ironic to even imagine that a > business decision could be made to support such multiple OS. > > Now, a Java app would seem to make marketing sense. I think that most of us whiners would be quite happy with a Java app. I am at a loss as to why DG didn't go this route. Peter Christiansen Bangkok, Thailand Connected with OS/2 Warp 3.0 & The Post Road Mailer _____________________________________________________________________________________ I'm entirely too busy to waste time choosing a tagline to use. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Peter Christiansen Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Wake up and smell the money! Breakout alert INVX Date: 30 Apr 1997 23:42:58 GMT+7 ** Reply to note from "Brenda" Wed, 30 Apr 1997 10:14:57 -0500 > 10AM CST update on INVX > Top of Upper Right Side Of Cup: 30 3/4 > Breaks Into New High Ground At: 33 3/4 > Shares Traded At 10 AM: 582,000 > Price At 10 AM: 33 1/8, up 3 3/4 I think most CANSLIMers buy on highs off of the handle, which would put the buy point at 32 3/8. The handle looks rather wide and loose, which makes me nervous. Peter Christiansen Bangkok, Thailand Connected with OS/2 Warp 3.0 & The Post Road Mailer _____________________________________________________________________________________ SET PATH=Bookshelf;DeskDrawer;Closet;BoxUnderBed;GarbageCan ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Brenda" Subject: [CANSLIM] ALTR Date: 30 Apr 1997 11:59:29 -0500 I looked at INVX. Now you take a look at ALTR. Of course, has been a great day trade stock having swings of at least TWO most days for a long time. James ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Johan Van Houtven Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] ALTR Date: 30 Apr 1997 19:51:49 +0200 ALTR Funds own 48%. So even if the other nrs are good I would not buy it. At 11:59 AM 30-04-97 -0500, you wrote: >I looked at INVX. Now you take a look at ALTR. Of course, has been a great >day trade stock having swings of at least TWO most days for a long time. >James > > Johan Van Houtven CLICK! N.V. / Wilrijk, Belgium ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Michael A Langston Subject: re: [CANSLIM] Watch candidates Date: 30 Apr 1997 13:54:56 -0400 > I am amused by the whining that DG is not supported on... i find statements such as this gratuitous -- and inflammatory -- i would hope that we can do better than this here (but maybe not) > a Java app would seem... well of course, that's the whole point mike langston ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Brenda" Subject: [CANSLIM] Ownership TOO TOO High. Date: 30 Apr 1997 13:05:09 -0500 Then that leaves out Campbell Soup (CPB) too. Right? Question: If a stock has 99 EPS, 99 REL, A accumulation, A sponsorship, A group, a GREAT graph (aka price pattern), a new GREAT new product, no debt, - IF all of this then at "what number" ownership by insiders or institutions do you draw the line and say, "I'm not interested!" ? James ---------- > From: Johan Van Houtven > To: canslim@mail.xmission.com > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] ALTR > Date: Wednesday, April 30, 1997 12:51 PM > > ALTR Funds own 48%. So even if the other nrs are good I would not buy it. > > > At 11:59 AM 30-04-97 -0500, you wrote: > >I looked at INVX. Now you take a look at ALTR. Of course, has been a great > >day trade stock having swings of at least TWO most days for a long time. > >James > > > > > > Johan Van Houtven > CLICK! N.V. / Wilrijk, Belgium > > ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Craig Griffin Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Xmission ANNOUNCEMENT: Mail server upgrade Date: 30 Apr 1997 14:06:38 -0400 Thanks Jeff, Service has been a solid A- lately IMO. Very few have need to resend msgs, best I can tell. And most of what I send, comes back rather quickly (w/in an hour). This upgrade can only help further. Thanks again for providing the List! Best regards, Craig At 08:37 AM 4/30/97 -0600, you wrote: >Everyone, > >I wanted to forward this to the canslim list for each participants "FYI". I >hope we will see some noticable benefits from this upgrade. > >Best Regards, > >Jeff Salisbury - CANSLIM list admin ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Brenda" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Xmission ANNOUNCEMENT: Mail server upgrade Date: 30 Apr 1997 13:14:44 -0500 Ditto! James ---------- > From: Craig Griffin > To: canslim@mail.xmission.com > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Xmission ANNOUNCEMENT: Mail server upgrade > Date: Wednesday, April 30, 1997 1:06 PM > > Thanks Jeff, > > Service has been a solid A- lately IMO. Very few have need to resend msgs, > best I can tell. And most of what I send, comes back rather quickly (w/in > an hour). This upgrade can only help further. > > Thanks again for providing the List! > > Best regards, > Craig > > At 08:37 AM 4/30/97 -0600, you wrote: > >Everyone, > > > >I wanted to forward this to the canslim list for each participants "FYI". I > >hope we will see some noticable benefits from this upgrade. > > > >Best Regards, > > > >Jeff Salisbury - CANSLIM list admin > > ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Brenda" Subject: [CANSLIM] STM Date: 30 Apr 1997 13:35:36 -0500 On January 1st of this year I picked this as my "Stock Of The Year". Well, like so many other stocks did this one did about the same. I got shook out of it. Just noticed it going across the screen. Pulled up graph. Got to redo or make another parameter obviously. Did not see it last night but then I did not look through the 227 stocks in one particular parameter come to think about it. Guess the system of scanning worked it was just ole James that did not work. Tired and too much to do. Well, 79 now. 68 yesterday morning. WOW! Anybody know about this one ahead of time? James ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Johan Van Houtven Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] STM Date: 30 Apr 1997 20:49:31 +0200 SGS Thomson Microelectronics declines comment on activity NEW YORK, April 30 (Reuter) - The New York Stock Exchange said Wednesday that SGS-Thomson Microelectronics of France said its policy is not to comment on unusual market activiy or rumors. The NYSE said that in view of unusual market activity in the company's stock, the Exchange had requested a public statement indicating whether there were any corporate developments which may explain the activity. SGS was trading on the NYSE at 78-1/4, up four, on volume of 660,300 shares in early afternoon. At 01:35 PM 30-04-97 -0500, you wrote: >On January 1st of this year I picked this as my "Stock Of The Year". Well, >like so many other stocks did this one did about the same. I got shook out >of it. Just noticed it going across the screen. Pulled up graph. Got to >redo or make another parameter obviously. Did not see it last night but >then I did not look through the 227 stocks in one particular parameter come >to think about it. Guess the system of scanning worked it was just ole >James that did not work. Tired and too much to do. Well, 79 now. 68 >yesterday morning. WOW! Anybody know about this one ahead of time? >James > BTW, I like INVX James (cfr my remarks about INVX a few days ago). In fact I liked it so much I bought some at 31 a moment ago. I'm still mostly cash, but this is one that has potential as each hard disk needs magnetic heads, no matter how much the drive makers themselves earn per drive, they will always need to buy the (components for the) heads. Johan Van Houtven CLICK! N.V. / Wilrijk, Belgium ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Johan Van Houtven Subject: [CANSLIM] STM Date: 30 Apr 1997 20:58:03 +0200 James, This could be a reason why STM is going up: speculation about a deal with Cyrix... April 21, 1997, Issue: 1054 Section: News ST Overcomes Problems That Held Up Cyrix Job By Jack Robertson SGS-Thomson Microelectronics N.V. last week said the company is now running five-metal-layer processing at its fab in Crolles, France - overcoming technical problems that had held up foundry production of Richardson, Texas-based Cyrix Corp.'s 6x86 Pentium-compatible chip. The two companies are negotiating an extended foundry agreement, an ST spokesman said. The original foundry agreement expires in July. Copyright =AE 1997 CMP Media Inc. http://www.techweb.com/se/directlink.cgi?EBN19970421S0016 Johan Van Houtven CLICK! N.V. / Wilrijk, Belgium ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: saltydog Subject: [CANSLIM] Discount Brokers Date: 30 Apr 1997 17:45:39 -0400 Hi group: I am trying to decide which discount broker to use. Any suggestions. Neil Himber ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Brenda" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Discount Brokers Date: 30 Apr 1997 17:01:43 -0500 As many know I do put out a newsletter but am here in NO WAY to add ONE subscriber. I enjoy this group and I think we "share" information. I say that in order that you will understand this. I was looking too once, for I was once again not happy where I was. I sent out in the letter, which is International, if ANYBODY had a broker or service or agency that they were happy with to please contact me or tell me ANY GOOD stories that they had. I have never heard so many sad, sad, sad stories. There was only ONE firm that received even ONE positive remark. It, in fact, got five positive comments. Not one other firm, agency, broker, service got ONE SINGLE kind word. And I have lots of people that dearly enjoy giving praise. OK. So I changed to this #1 ranked firm for the last 3 years in some publication. Well, some things are better, some are not. I am living with the short comings but in actual fact, taking all things into consideration, IMHO, not ONE BIT better. It is a shame. I have found that the more money you have the better you "seem" to get treated. Early on, I could never imagine having the firm actually back off a trade just because I "said" they made a mistake. Get enough money and sometimes, some do listen. Be small and forget it has been my experience. I know TOM is the exception and he even will tell you there are many, many horror stories out there and the more you know about "how" the industry works the more you see how it happens. So, in answer to your question - I can name you 3 discount houses and 4 full service brokerage firms that I basically don't see a dime's difference in the lot if they were all the same price in commission. Good luck. James This is submitted as simply MY OPINION and MY EXPERIENCE. I do make a LOT of trades not yearly but DAILY and WEEKLY. That deal by Aufenhauser for $800 a year one time fee would not do me too much good. You are restricted to 20 trades a month. May work for most, but I wonder how much each additional trade is. What kind of rate do you revert to. Oh well- I've looked, I've changed, No difference!!! ---------- > From: saltydog > To: canslim@mail.xmission.com > Subject: [CANSLIM] Discount Brokers > Date: Wednesday, April 30, 1997 4:45 PM > > Hi group: > I am trying to decide which discount broker to use. Any suggestions. > Neil Himber > ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: sabeel@loc1.tandem.com (ahmed_sabeel) Subject: [CANSLIM] Stock screening with DG Online Date: 30 Apr 1997 16:57:39 -0700 (PDT) Is there a way to screen stocks using Daily Graphs online? For eg, if I only wanted to look at stocks with EPS> 80, RS > 90, GRS >65 and so on, is there a way I can do it. Is there anyother software available in the marker that will let me do that (or something close to that). Thanks -Sabeel ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Discount Brokers Date: 30 Apr 1997 20:39:31 -0400 There are a couple things you should ask in shopping for a broker. First, if you are going to do your own research and make your own picks, and maybe even watch your stocks during the day and make your own buy/sell decisions, then you either want a deep discount firm or you want a full svc firm that will give you deep discounts cuz you do a lot of trades and require very little in svc. The size and frequency of your orders will also make a difference. You will have to negotiate, but one advantage of a full svc firm is you can deal with the same broker all the time. This is esp useful if you will want him to call you during the day if something is happening with your stocks that you need to know. At my firm we will do trades for institutional accts (mutual funds) at 6 cents a share, don't do a lot of them but they typically trade 25K shares or more on a single order. We have several actively traded accts that typically trade 1000 or more shares, but may do five or six trades in a day, and they pay as much as 20 cents a share (full commission would have been about double this). If you go full svc, use either a major wirehouse or a BD that clears thru a major wirehouse as this gives you access to the wirehouse's trading desks. Since they make mkts in many stocks, as well as have a seat/floor specialists on most exhcanges, you can get faster, and sometimes better, execution. I have mentioned before how my mkt orders placed thru Bear often get an immediate "guaranteed" price, then they work the order and usually get a 1/16th to an eighth better. For order execution and service, have heard good things about Fidelity, including goon online access. However, in my surfing, have seen many posts about who's good and bad, and have to agree with James' comments, I hear little good. Since I work for a BD, I have never used any firm but where I work, and of course am very happy with order entry and execution (since that's one of my jobs). I have been surprised by the number of comments on deep disc firms while surfing, apparently many people thought they would get full svc at disc commissions. There is always a tradeoff. Make sure the firm is a member of NASD and SIPC. If you need or require online access for order entry, looking at your acct, etc. then ask what they offer. I have noted that the original "discount" firm, Schwab, is gradually changing into a full svc firm for those that have large accts and are willing to pay extra. You can get research, recommendations, deal with the same broker, etc. and I suspect fees are still less than full commission at a full svc broker. But most brokers are hungary, and would accept an actively traded, large acct and give little svc for disc commissions, they won't offer, but you have to ask. you can start by calling and asking for the "broker of the day" most firms will have one. Or you can ask for the retail mgr and discuss it with him, he may keep the acct, or assign it out. My best advice, call around to several different firms in different categories (full svc, discount, deep discount). Just remember you get what you pay for. Personally, I think if you are doing your own homework and simply need order execution, you can do better with access to a large wirehouse than with a disc firm assuming you can get fair discounts on the commissions. tom w ---------- > From: Brenda > To: canslim@mail.xmission.com > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Discount Brokers > Date: Wednesday, April 30, 1997 6:01 PM > > I have never heard so many sad, sad, sad stories. There was only ONE firm > that received even ONE positive remark. It, in fact, got five positive > comments. Not one other firm, agency, broker, service got ONE SINGLE kind > word. And I have lots of people that dearly enjoy giving praise. OK. So I > changed to this #1 ranked firm for the last 3 years in some publication. > Well, some things are better, some are not. I am living with the short > comings but in actual fact, taking all things into consideration, IMHO, not > ONE BIT better. It is a shame. I have found that the more money you have ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] ECI/Durable Goods Date: 30 Apr 1997 20:45:18 -0400 Mutual funds did poorly last year as well as early this year. Just because the portfolio managers are "professionals" doesn't mean they weren't concerned about mkt valuations and tended to be slow to move in the right direction. Have seen no reports suggesting past two days up moves were "short covering" based. In fact I doubt it, more likely is the sheer amt of money sitting on the sidelines wanting to jump back in. The problem the Japanese is the lack of strength in their economy. Being virtually totally dependent on import of raw materials, even the weakening yen seems to have failed to kick start their economy. Despite a lack of a capital gains tax, and 2% interest, nothing seems to be working. Until that happens, they can't raise rates and strengthen the yen. tom w ---------- > From: OWENTIME@delphi.com > To: canslim@mail.xmission.com > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] ECI/Durable Goods > Date: Wednesday, April 30, 1997 2:10 AM > > As a novice I'm trying to learn more about these market trends and corrctions: > Today, being #2 biggest DOW gain (#1 being just after '87 crash) I can'tt > help but wonder how nice this market is as long as short sellers buy back > > The profits from downsizing won't be as fat, and several news services > reported that mutuals are down 20% from this time last year, so why can > 't one expect 5400 before mid summer? Is this artificial glumness on the > part of the Japanese hinting at more stability for a high flying dollar > after May as we head for a small recession in'98 remains an unknown. Many > commentators have said if interest rates increase above 8% then stocks ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] ECI/Durable Goods Date: 30 Apr 1997 20:49:33 -0400 It can be done, several brokers in my office made tremendous profits during the past month, but you got to have the right mkt for it. That is past (remember, I called the end of the correction, without qualification, even tho I was still expecting further rate hikes, pretty gutsy if I do say so myself) (BTW how much higher does it have to go before CNBC calls and wants to interview me about my secret system of calling the mkt?? Not, of course, that I would gloat or anything, you know). tom w ---------- > From: Peter Christiansen > To: canslim@mail.xmission.com > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] ECI/Durable Goods > Date: Wednesday, April 30, 1997 8:41 PM > > ** Reply to note from "Tom Worley" Wed, 30 Apr 1997 07:12:08 -0400 > > > > If it were me, I'd probably close out BA as well, damage already > > done from missing estimates, they have a large backlog and are > > regularly getting new contracts even tho competition stiff. > > After seeing today's strength, I closed out BA as well. I wonder if I will ever manage to > make any money from the short side. > > > > Peter Christiansen > Bangkok, Thailand > > Connected with OS/2 Warp 3.0 & The Post Road Mailer > ____________________________________________________________________ _________________ > > How much wood did Peter Piper pick....no, wait.... ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Brenda" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] ECI/Durable Goods Date: 30 Apr 1997 20:00:03 -0500 Tom, You must truly have a good sense of humor. Your posts will generally list, at least my, spirits and many times I laugh out loud. In comparing MY results to Navallier, Cabot, Oberweiss, and THE MPT Review, to date NONE of them hold a candle. One is down over 30% for the year, so far. However, they continue to show up on CNBC. Why Ms G. is fairly regular and today once again ole Granville himself was spouting his words of wisdom for about five full minutes. Do me a favor Tom. When they do in fact call you to be on the program have the nerve to tell them, "Well, I thank you for the call and consideration but I seriously have a lot more important things to do than be inteviewed, criticized, and second guess by a horde of monkeys, out of work brokers and "hopefully in their minds" next months cover man for Playgirl. Should have sent this to just you but........ sorry, if somebody really thinks the station is good. I HAVE to watch it! James ---------- > From: Tom Worley > To: canslim@mail.xmission.com > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] ECI/Durable Goods > Date: Wednesday, April 30, 1997 7:49 PM > > It can be done, several brokers in my office made tremendous > profits during the past month, but you got to have the right mkt > for it. That is past (remember, I called the end of the correction, > without qualification, even tho I was still expecting further rate > hikes, pretty gutsy if I do say so myself) (BTW how much higher > does it have to go before CNBC calls and wants to interview me > about my secret system of calling the mkt?? Not, of course, that I > would gloat or anything, you know). > > tom w > ---------- > > From: Peter Christiansen > > To: canslim@mail.xmission.com > > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] ECI/Durable Goods > > Date: Wednesday, April 30, 1997 8:41 PM > > > > ** Reply to note from "Tom Worley" Wed, 30 > Apr 1997 07:12:08 -0400 > > > > > > > If it were me, I'd probably close out BA as well, damage > already > > > done from missing estimates, they have a large backlog and are > > > regularly getting new contracts even tho competition stiff. > > > > After seeing today's strength, I closed out BA as well. I wonder > if I will ever manage to > > make any money from the short side. > > > > > > > > Peter Christiansen > > Bangkok, Thailand > > > > Connected with OS/2 Warp 3.0 & The Post Road Mailer > > > ____________________________________________________________________ > _________________ > > > > How much wood did Peter Piper pick....no, wait.... > ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Categories Value Unequal? Date: 30 Apr 1997 20:59:30 -0400 James, in a normal CANSLIM kinda mkt, I generally won't put my CANSLIM money into anything below RS95, EPS 95, a/d B, timeliness B, and up/down 1.2 or better. Normally a/d and timeliness will both be A. Of course, chart pattern has to be acceptable, stock usually close to 50dma with a 3 wk or more base nearby. Gotta have liquidity, usually look for min of 200K avg shares a day or more. Debt, inventory turnover, stuff like that matters but doesn't get a lot of weight. I prefer to look at at least two years worth of quarterly earnings and sales (which is why I like the enhancement to DG Online), and study the pattern and seasonality of both earnings and sales. I also look at yearly earnings and estimated earnings for next one to two years. If no est earnings, I usually won't touch. In a market like we have been having, I tend to look for solid cos that have been oversold but have extremely good earnings history and growth, along with some kind of a base. I disagree with you on the importance of EPS, but then I am working from a little more CANSLIM bent than you are, if I read many of your system's top picks correctly. Volatility is actually more desirable to me while is less desirable, even avoided, for you, as just one example Hope this helps a little. tom w ---------- > From: Brenda > To: canslim > Subject: [CANSLIM] Categories Value Unequal? > Date: Wednesday, April 30, 1997 8:48 PM > > Just picked up my first piece of information from Daily Graphs. It was the > Top 10 EPS Rank NYSE Stocks. After, viewing the graphs it refreshed my > memory very well as to why I rank EPS as one of the least important > categories in my grading criteria. Not that it is NOT important, but I > grade everything else and basically use it as a tie breaker. Out of this > group of stocks not one would come within 100 miles of my giving them a > second look. The stocks were: CXC, BP, PT, RHI, TAP, MTZ, KAB, SZA, SMVB > and FDY. I am setting up parameters to use and many different categories > that I will view daily for a fair period of time to assess the parameter. > If any of you already have set up parameters that are giving you stocks > that you tend to keep up with daily and don't mind sharing the info I would > love to know what it is. I am always glad to share with you what I have > and/or what I find. Thanks. > James ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Ownership TOO TOO High. Date: 30 Apr 1997 21:18:00 -0400 Personally, if I am looking at a "big cap" stock, then these characteristics are fine and fund ownership isn't a concern unless they already own about 98% of the stock. With a big cap, I expect large fund holdings, would be concerned if they didn't. With a secondary stock like ALTR, I would be concerned and would try to understand it as it seems to be an anomoly. i would check if maybe there is convertible debt, largely held by whoever took them public. Maybe there are IPO warrants held by their underwriter, now in the money, thus must be counted. If everything else was good, and I was having trouble finding better candidates, then I would examine and research the one item giving me trouble before dismissing the stock. On the other hand, a large fund holding percentage on a stock like this cannot be ignored except at your peril, most recent example is FRTE after Morgan Stanley cut their ratings on it and the stock gapped down 25% and fell another 25% plus in a single day. tom w ---------- > From: Brenda > To: canslim@mail.xmission.com > Subject: [CANSLIM] Ownership TOO TOO High. > Date: Wednesday, April 30, 1997 2:05 PM > > Then that leaves out Campbell Soup (CPB) too. Right? > Question: If a stock has 99 EPS, 99 REL, A accumulation, A sponsorship, A > group, a GREAT graph (aka price pattern), a new GREAT new product, no debt, > - IF all of this then at "what number" ownership by insiders or > institutions do you draw the line and say, "I'm not interested!" ? > James > ---------- > > From: Johan Van Houtven > > To: canslim@mail.xmission.com > > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] ALTR > > Date: Wednesday, April 30, 1997 12:51 PM > > > > ALTR Funds own 48%. So even if the other nrs are good I would not buy it. > > ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Wake up and smell the money! Breakout alert INVX Date: 30 Apr 1997 21:24:46 -0400 As I mentioned sometime previous, this looked to be a cup and handle that let the handle get too close to the burner (mkt conditions) and it drooped a little. Otherwise good CANSLIM characteristics with blowout latest qtr earnings. tom w ---------- > From: Peter Christiansen > To: canslim@mail.xmission.com > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Wake up and smell the money! Breakout alert INVX > Date: Wednesday, April 30, 1997 7:42 PM > > ** Reply to note from "Brenda" Wed, 30 Apr 1997 10:14:57 -0500 > > > > 10AM CST update on INVX > > Top of Upper Right Side Of Cup: 30 3/4 > > Breaks Into New High Ground At: 33 3/4 > > Shares Traded At 10 AM: 582,000 > > Price At 10 AM: 33 1/8, up 3 3/4 > > I think most CANSLIMers buy on highs off of the handle, which would put the buy point > at 32 3/8. > > The handle looks rather wide and loose, which makes me nervous. > ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Xmission ANNOUNCEMENT: Mail server upgrade Date: 30 Apr 1997 21:28:47 -0400 I also add my thanks and appreciation. When a post HASN'T bounced back in about 20 minutes, I start to pay attention and be concerned. I have come to expect exceptional service and response, and it unusual when that doesn't happen. Great group, glad you started and support it, and that I found it. tom w ---------- > From: Craig Griffin > To: canslim@mail.xmission.com > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Xmission ANNOUNCEMENT: Mail server upgrade > Date: Wednesday, April 30, 1997 2:06 PM > > Thanks Jeff, > > Service has been a solid A- lately IMO. Very few have need to resend msgs, > best I can tell. And most of what I send, comes back rather quickly (w/in > an hour). This upgrade can only help further. > > Thanks again for providing the List! > > Best regards, > Craig > > At 08:37 AM 4/30/97 -0600, you wrote: > >Everyone, > > > >I wanted to forward this to the canslim list for each participants "FYI". I > >hope we will see some noticable benefits from this upgrade. > > > >Best Regards, > > > >Jeff Salisbury - CANSLIM list admin > ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: David F. Cameron Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Economic Reports Date: 30 Apr 1997 20:37:05 CDT Hmm.... I was surprised at the strength of the market after the first hour. The market is certainly acting as if there won't be a rate hike. Even bonds, sloughed off the higher than expected GDP. I hadn't thought of the politicization side of it. Greenspan usually seems unconcerned about that. Clinton voicing his "no inflation" doesn't surprise me. He wants to continue looking good - as any good politician would. Anyway, your rationale about s/t rates remaining where they are seems very plausible. I was still expecting a 25 bp hike given the PPI and today's GDP - but the ECI is a big counteracting meausre - and the PPI/GDP seem to stand alone on inflation fears. I guess we'll see. I'm thinking more bullish in that the A/D was strong again today. I'm half-expecting another Craig Griffin analysis on the state of the market a la his Dow Top analysis of December which was about a month earlier... Can you resist, Craig? Did anyone notice that on part 2 of the WON interview that he commented on possible follow-through? ---------------- > (I have now dropped my concern/expectation that > the hike will be 50bp, but not yet convinced that a hike won't > happen, however now rate it as a possible vice probable - that's a > big switch for me). My biggest reason for this switch is that > employment costs are the biggie, spurred upward by rising health > costs. This latest report suggests this still isn't happening > despite the 0.9% rise in compensation. And other reports are > suggesting that the economic spurt we have been seeing is starting > to ebb a little in Q2. With so few major economic reports remaining > till the meeting, and the increasing politicization of the Fed's > role (Clinton waded into it today, indicating no inflation, gotta > maintain favor with Congress and the little people after all), and > recent reports not providing proof that even James would accept > that inflation is a concern, I suspect the Feds will hold off and > watch the reports leading up to the August meeting. Means probably > a couple of good months until the summer, then another two months > of uncertainty at a time when the mkt is seasonally stagnant and > flat. > > tom w > ---------- > > From: David F. Cameron > > To: canslim@mail.xmission.com > > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Economic Reports > > > > Came in at 5.6% Could be a rough day. Will be interesting > > to see how the market takes it. > > > > Dave Cameron > > ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: derek b Subject: [CANSLIM] Clarinet tech daily monitor Date: 30 Apr 1997 22:07:05 -0400 This Web page may be of interest to those looking for potential new tech leaders 1st out of the pack should the Nasdaq spring to life. Derek Exceptional Technology Stocks Updated at Wednesday, April 30, 1997, at 2:00 pm Pacific time. Selected stock issues of note of companies with interests in high technology research, with emphasis on the computer and telecommunications industries. Wed Apr 30 1997 Stock Indices High Low Final Change %Change S&P 500 804.13 791.21 801.34 7.29 +0.9% Dow Jones IA 7057.15 6935.54 7008.99 46.96 +0.7% OTC Composite 1263.81 1238.02 1260.76 18.13 +1.5% The top twenty stock issues trading with unusually high volumes, gains or declines: Issue Notes Volume High Low Close Change Pct (100s) Change Fore Sys O 71349 15.39 11.50 15.25 3.50 +29.8% Forte Softwre O 20443 9.50 8.31 9.47 1.13 +13.5% BoltBerNew N 12296 23.25 20.75 23.25 1.50 +6.9% Zitel O 18431 14.50 12.00 13.88 1.75 +14.4% CmptrAsc N 41840 52.13 48.63 52.13 2.63 +5.3% Level One O 6157 33.00 28.63 32.00 3.12 +10.8% Adaptec O 35899 37.38 35.63 37.00 2.25 +6.5% IntlgntElec O 12947 3.19 2.81 3.00 0.31 +11.5% Cisco O 187635 53.13 49.63 51.75 1.75 +3.5% Quantum O 73096 42.25 39.00 41.69 1.81 +4.5% Yahoo O 9585 34.63 31.38 34.13 2.38 +7.5% Cadence Dsgn N 8867 32.50 28.88 32.00 2.50 +8.5% Bay Networks N 41568 18.13 16.25 17.88 1.50 +9.2% Arbor Softw O 3783 25.00 21.00 24.88 3.25 +15.0% Oracle O 89456 40.00 38.00 39.75 1.25 +3.2% Comdisco N 1994 32.00 30.50 31.75 1.12 +3.7% Ascend O 89808 45.88 41.00 45.75 4.31 +10.4% Interleaf O 1036 1.25 0.94 1.19 0.25 +26.6% Intel Cp O 152178 153.81 149.38 153.13 3.13 +2.1% Xerox N 12192 61.75 59.88 61.50 1.37 +2.3% NOTES: Exchanges are identified by: (N) New York; (A) American; (O) Over-the-counter/NASDAQ. Quotes marked with (!) are not closing prices, and are dated according to the time of the quote. Closing quotes followed by an age indicate that the issue last traded on that date. VOLUMES: In hundreds (00) omitted. This report is provided as a service by the ClariNet e.News electronic newspaper. It is also available on our web pages at http://www.clari.net -=-=- Tell us what you think about the ClariNews! Send your comments to <> . Copyright 1997, ClariNet Communications Corp. The exceptional technology stock report is generated by ClariNet from an analysis of approximately 200 technology oriented issues. For each issue we track typical daily volume and daily percentage change. Then, each day, we examine how far off each stock was from its typical daily volume and change. We sort the stocks according to how deviant they were from their normal behaviour. Thus this report emphasises stocks that have unusual activity for that stock rather than unusual activity compared to the rest of the market. ClariNet subscribers also receive each day the full report on all the technology issues, as well as the highest volume and highest percentage change technology stocks of the day. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Economic Reports Date: 30 Apr 1997 22:18:56 -0400 OK, been a while since I resorted to mkt stats to make my point, but today a good one for it since we saw some breadth we have been lacking. Granted, Russell 200 didn't follow thru with a plus 1% day, but yesterdays was the first I can remember in a very long time, two in a row would have been nice however. Yesterday, we had both Dow 30 and NASDAQ up over 2%, that's a big day by any measure. Today, Dow 30 was briefly up over 1% and NASDAQ finished up 1.5% up. Vol returned to some of the nrs we have seen when the mkt was doing well, 562mil on NYSE and 668mil on NASDAQ. Up/down issues was very strong on NYSE, not so hot but positive on NASDAQ. New hi/lows was much better on NYSE than NASDAQ, in fact rather poor on NASDAQ considering yesterday should have pulled a lot of stocks off their recent lows, NASDAQ still today had 71 new highs (best it's done for some time) but still had 170 new lows. The networking group, after a brief early selloff, turned the corner and never looked back, with ASND the big winner at up 4 5/16 for the day. The bad part of all this is that it still remains a big cap mkt. And because of this, it will continue to hurt the secondaries, which were just starting to show some signs of activity as money that wanted to be in the mkt looked for overlooked, undervalued stocks. tom w ---------- > From: David F. Cameron > To: canslim@mail.xmission.com > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Economic Reports > Date: Wednesday, April 30, 1997 9:37 PM > > Hmm.... I was surprised at the strength of the market after > the first hour. The market is certainly acting as if there > Did anyone notice that on part 2 of the WON interview > that he commented on possible follow-through? > ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: investor@yvv.com (Trader Jack) Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Economic Reports Date: 30 Apr 1997 22:47:33 -0400 (EDT) >general sense that mkt oversold (actually not) >follow thru from yesterday's ECI report confirming belief that Feds >won't hike in May (I have now dropped my concern/expectation that >the hike will be 50bp, but not yet convinced that a hike won't >happen, however now rate it as a possible vice probable - It's amazing how quickly sentiment turns in this virtually digital world of ours. Suddenly, a few modest economic reports send the herd scrambling for answers as they retool their current market outlooks. Tom, please don't think that I'm singling you out, because I'm not. I just chuckle a bit at how everyone hangs on the latest and greatest report to come out of Washington, DC and what that will do to our investing dollars over the course of the following few days. Lest we (and "we" includes me!) get frothy at the mouth looking to cast our nets far and wide for the next bandwagon of leading stocks to rocket out of the marketsphere, let's make sure we can transcend Friday's employment report. I've seen this scenario unfold before...a relatively depressed market (basis Nasdaq/Russell) hovering near major support begins to rally in advance of what suddenly is seen as the potential (bordering on expected) for a benign employment report. Mid-week, everyone starts pointing at breakouts thinking that the market finally is coming off the bottom. The more adventurous of us throw some of our hard earned cash at these fresh breakouts. 'Round about Thursday afternoon, say 2pm, the 3-day rally begins to lose its steam and jitters set in as the big, bad employment report is less than 3 market hours away from promulgation. Weakness into the close results. If the market closes near the bottom of its intraday trading range, I'd be nervous if I were one of the folks buying breakouts earlier in the week. Then 8:30am Friday rolls around, the report is out, and BAM!...bond traders run for the hills as the report is much stronger than expected. The mid week rally is all but a memory, and we CANSLIMmers now must cope with bailing out of our fresh breakouts before they come crashing down to their bases or even worse. Now, I've been caught in enough of these reversals to get skeptical enough to think that sometimes this scenario is one huge Wall Street sucker-punch played out at our expense. In any case, I've learned to tread lightly leading up to the monthy employment reports when sentiment changes so markedly just prior to the report itself. A couple of indicators that flash caution at me are: 1) June bond futures up against trendline resistance at 109 & change. 2) The CRB Index poised for a possible b/o 3) The Russell 2000 lagging badly 4) Major indices (DJIA, SPX, OEX) right at overhead resistance With the exception of a trial balloon in MSFT (bought 4 weeks ago which I liquidated today, btw) I've remained in cash. I just don't think the investment risk is worth it measured against the potential rewards should the employment report now meet "newly-revised" expectations. There's a good chance even if the report is good that the market will not rally further. The rally of the past 3 days has already discounted this sentiment change. The odds of a disappointing report have increased dramatically now that most folks expect the report to be mild. Anyway, those are my thoughts for now. I could be way off base this time...who knows. I, for one hope I am wrong. I'd dearly love to play ball from the long side again. The market for the past four months has flat out stunk. I'm itchin' to pounce on breakouts like most of you, I'm sure. INVX, for one, was just screaming at me to buy it today. It took all the discipline I could muster to lay off it, as well as muster the temerity to liquidate a 20% gainer in 4 weeks. That's not easy to do when--on the surface--the Nasdaq looks like it is getting its act together. Regardless, I'd rather assume the risk of doing nothing until the report is out of the way rather than assume the risk of buying breakouts tomorrow morning-- no matter how endearing they may appear. I take comfort in knowing that if this rally turns out to be for real, there will be plenty of opportunity to buy more breakouts in the coming weeks. Oh, and BTW...hi guys and gals! I'm new to this list (but not to CANSLIM)! :) Cheers, Trader Jack ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Zoran Mitrovski Subject: [CANSLIM] Short-covering Date: 30 Apr 1997 23:01:51 -2800 (EDT) Tom wrote: > Have seen no reports suggesting past two days up moves were "short > covering" based. In fact I doubt it, more likely is the sheer amt > of money sitting on the sidelines wanting to jump back in. Tom, what kind of reports would suggest short-covering? Do they usually appear to suggest it after it has occured? I tend to think that there was some major short-covering in the last two days. Why do you think it wasn't so? Sorry folks, but I personally hope that the bulls are not actually roaring back. I have so much work to do at school. ;^) Cheers, Zoran http://www.seas.rochester.edu:8080/ee/users/zmitrov/home.html ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: jbeckham@vcn.com Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Discount Brokers Date: 30 Apr 1997 21:16:07 -0600 (MDT) At 05:45 PM 4/30/97 -0400, you wrote: >Hi group: >I am trying to decide which discount broker to use. Any suggestions. >Neil Himber > I have used National Discount Brokers for the last 2 years and have had no problems with them. Jeff ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: derek b Subject: [CANSLIM] Whoa - some promising setups Date: 30 Apr 1997 23:18:07 -0400 Now we're talking: some decent near-Canslim watch candidates for tomorrow. GX 21.00 IMPH 21.00 MCAF 55.75 MSTR 24.25 MTC 42.625 SLM 118.25 From today's watch list I bought MRII, passed on the others posted. Derek ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Craig Griffin Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Economic Reports Date: 30 Apr 1997 23:25:39 -0400 Trader Jack! Welcome to the List! Very nice post. Incisive. Glad to have you aboard. Regards, Craig At 10:47 PM 4/30/97 -0400, you wrote: >Now, I've been caught in enough of these reversals to get skeptical enough to think that >sometimes this scenario is one huge Wall Street sucker-punch played out at our expense. >In any case, I've learned to tread lightly leading up to the monthy employment reports when >sentiment changes so markedly just prior to the report itself. A couple of indicators that flash >caution at me are: > > 1) June bond futures up against trendline resistance at 109 & change. > 2) The CRB Index poised for a possible b/o > 3) The Russell 2000 lagging badly > 4) Major indices (DJIA, SPX, OEX) right at overhead resistance > > Regardless, I'd rather >assume the risk of doing nothing until the report is out of the way rather than assume the risk of >buying breakouts tomorrow morning-- no matter how endearing they may appear. I take >comfort in knowing that if this rally turns out to be for real, there will be plenty of opportunity to >buy more breakouts in the coming weeks. > ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Economic Reports Date: 30 Apr 1997 23:40:47 -0400 Welcome TJ, hope to see more insight from you in future. I realize my switch is major from such a prior (most of which you probably missed) bearish, cautious stance. However, I made my change due a variety of reports, of which the ECI was undoubtedly the most sig. On the other hand, I would not have done so if I did not have reason to believe that today's GDP report would be gentle with us, and it was, and tomorrow's NAPM report would be in line with expectation, if not down a little, and Friday's Employment nrs ok, if not under expectation, and ECI, GDP and employment for the remainder of the year in check and under inflationary levels. Even tho I called an end to the correction just a few days ago, it was on the basis of tech performance I saw and not on the expectation of such favorable economic reporting data. That we got this only reinforces my position that we have a trading opportunity for at least several months. The economic data during that period will determine if the window of opportunity continues past the August meeting. Long as you're here now, how about an intro and some background? tom w ---------- > From: Trader Jack > To: canslim@mail.xmission.com > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Economic Reports > Date: Wednesday, April 30, 1997 10:47 PM > > >general sense that mkt oversold (actually not) > >follow thru from yesterday's ECI report confirming belief that Feds > >won't hike in May (I have now dropped my concern/expectation that > >the hike will be 50bp, but not yet convinced that a hike won't > >happen, however now rate it as a possible vice probable - > > It's amazing how quickly sentiment turns in this virtually digital world of ours. Suddenly, > a few modest economic reports send the herd scrambling for answers as they retool > their current market outlooks. Tom, please don't think that I'm singling you out, because > I'm not. I just chuckle a bit at how everyone hangs on the latest and greatest report to > come out of Washington, DC and what that will do to our investing dollars over the course > of the following few days. > > Lest we (and "we" includes me!) get frothy at the mouth looking to cast our nets far and wide > for the next bandwagon of leading stocks to rocket out of the marketsphere, let's make sure > we can transcend Friday's employment report. I've seen this scenario unfold before...a > relatively depressed market (basis Nasdaq/Russell) hovering near major support begins to > rally in advance of what suddenly is seen as the potential (bordering on expected) for a > benign employment report. Mid-week, everyone starts pointing at breakouts thinking that > the market finally is coming off the bottom. The more adventurous of us throw some of our > hard earned cash at these fresh breakouts. 'Round about Thursday afternoon, say 2pm, the > 3-day rally begins to lose its steam and jitters set in as the big, bad employment report is less > than 3 market hours away from promulgation. Weakness into the close results. If the market > closes near the bottom of its intraday trading range, I'd be nervous if I were one of the folks > buying breakouts earlier in the week. > > Then 8:30am Friday rolls around, the report is out, and BAM!...bond traders run for the hills as > the report is much stronger than expected. The mid week rally is all but a memory, and we > CANSLIMmers now must cope with bailing out of our fresh breakouts before they come crashing > down to their bases or even worse. > > Now, I've been caught in enough of these reversals to get skeptical enough to think that > sometimes this scenario is one huge Wall Street sucker-punch played out at our expense. > In any case, I've learned to tread lightly leading up to the monthy employment reports when > sentiment changes so markedly just prior to the report itself. A couple of indicators that flash > caution at me are: > > 1) June bond futures up against trendline resistance at 109 & change. > 2) The CRB Index poised for a possible b/o > 3) The Russell 2000 lagging badly > 4) Major indices (DJIA, SPX, OEX) right at overhead resistance > > With the exception of a trial balloon in MSFT (bought 4 weeks ago which I liquidated today, btw) > I've remained in cash. I just don't think the investment risk is worth it measured against the > potential rewards should the employment report now meet "newly-revised" expectations. > There's a good chance even if the report is good that the market will not rally further. The rally > of the past 3 days has already discounted this sentiment change. The odds of a disappointing > report have increased dramatically now that most folks expect the report to be mild. > > Anyway, those are my thoughts for now. I could be way off base this time...who knows. I, for one > hope I am wrong. I'd dearly love to play ball from the long side again. The market for the past > four months has flat out stunk. I'm itchin' to pounce on breakouts like most of you, I'm sure. > INVX, for one, was just screaming at me to buy it today. It took all the discipline I could muster > to lay off it, as well as muster the temerity to liquidate a 20% gainer in 4 weeks. That's not easy to > do when--on the surface--the Nasdaq looks like it is getting its act together. Regardless, I'd rather > assume the risk of doing nothing until the report is out of the way rather than assume the risk of > buying breakouts tomorrow morning-- no matter how endearing they may appear. I take > comfort in knowing that if this rally turns out to be for real, there will be plenty of opportunity to > buy more breakouts in the coming weeks. > > Oh, and BTW...hi guys and gals! I'm new to this list (but not to CANSLIM)! :) > > Cheers, > > Trader Jack > ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Short-covering Date: 30 Apr 1997 23:47:16 -0400 Zoran, I use a variety of reports to give me snippets of info, then apply what I read to what logically makes sense. For weeks I have been reading, and posting, about how money has been moving into money mkt funds vice the more expected and traditional income funds. That's one signal. Second is the general uncertainty in the mkt. Third is that money has continued moving into funds needing a place to invest. Fourth is the lack of serious redeemtions by funds holders. Fifth is the short positions continuing to set high level records, saying the shorts still believe in their approach (and with the mkt acting like it has, they had a right to this opinion). yeah, undoubtedly some shorters covered their position in the past two sessions, but willing to bet that the next short position report shows the nr of shares short still at, if not over, the record high just set. Last, but not least, I go by the variety of reports I read. I have seen no mention of sig short covering. It will happen if this mkt continues up, but for the moment isnt fueling this rally. It is mostly subjective, not something I can quantify or point to. tom w ---------- > From: Zoran Mitrovski > To: canslim@mail.xmission.com > Cc: Zoran Mitrovski > Subject: [CANSLIM] Short-covering > Date: Thursday, May 01, 1997 11:01 PM > > Tom wrote: > > > Have seen no reports suggesting past two days up moves were "short > > covering" based. In fact I doubt it, more likely is the sheer amt > > of money sitting on the sidelines wanting to jump back in. > > Tom, what kind of reports would suggest short-covering? Do they > usually appear to suggest it after it has occured? I tend to think > that there was some major short-covering in the last two days. > Why do you think it wasn't so? > > Sorry folks, but I personally hope that the bulls are not actually > roaring back. I have so much work to do at school. ;^) > > Cheers, > Zoran > http://www.seas.rochester.edu:8080/ee/users/zmitrov/home.html ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: David F. Cameron Subject: re: [CANSLIM] Re: Daily Graphs Online Date: 29 Apr 1997 16:35:31 CDT I sent a couple messages to the Daily Graphs on-line people who've identified themselves on this list. They are generally in agree- ment - that the site should use Java and be platform independent. Top management at DG, however, does not agree. I'm sure DG-On-Line will make money - and that is their primary motivation, right? Perhaps they think the cost of adding non-Win95/NT users is not worth the expected return. FWIW, I just bought a new PC for home (even though I use UNIX at work). It uses the new AMD-k6 chip and Win95. I feel like SUCH a conformist ;-( > > On Tue, 29 Apr 1997 16:48:03 -0400, Michael A Langston wrote: > > >> Everyone should jump on this window of opprtunity. > > > >really? -- you mean it now works on unix??? > > > >mike langston > > I visited the site, and found to my sorry that they still > have this VERY narrow view of the world that only includes > Win95/NT. Unix, OS/2, and Mac/PowerPc need not apply. > We are not welcome. Hah, as though we are not serious > investors who use the WWW, newsgroups, majordomo lists, > e-mail, ftp, etc. It gives me concern about any > subscription that I might make to any of their printed > media. What might they do to it to exclude a certain > class or classes of potential subscribers in North > America, Europe, Asia? Daily Graphs, do you hear??? > Boo, Hiss!!! > > *----------------------------------------------------------------------* > Robert Gammon My opinions are my own. In no way do > rgammon@micro.ti.com I represent the views of my employer > Using OS/2 Warp Connect, and a user of every version of OS/2 since v1.0 > *----------------------------------------------------------------------* > > > ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: JAg Subject: [CANSLIM] TSEMF Date: 21 Apr 1997 12:39:53 -0500 Hi! I am new to the CANSLIM and I had some stocks from Tower Semicond. I don't know when to sell. Any help?