From: Jeffry White <"postwhit@sover.net"@sover.net> Subject: [CANSLIM] follow through day confirmation - Mike Lucero Date: 31 Jul 1998 17:55:22 -0400 Mike, Take a look at April 15, 1998 on the Nasdaq. We followed through with 1% on volume 5 days after the most recent low. However, sentiment was running at near 5 year extremes. (Bears made that mark at 22.6% on April 6, 1998 and Bulls set a 52 week mark on April 27). Then on April 22 we had a giant distribution day, and the whole shooting match was over until June 23. Jeffry - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Nelson E. Timken, Esq." Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] earnings release dates and sec filings, and insider buying . Date: 31 Jul 1998 21:38:23 -0400 Just curious Frank...which group was that? Nelson E. Timken http://onelist.com/subscribe.cgi/investing-list -----Original Message----- [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of Mulack@aol.com Sent: Friday, July 31, 1998 8:18 PM buying . Hello group, I heard off another discussion group which is not nearly as reliable as this group that there is an SEC regulation regarding posting earnings results. My question is what is the SEC regulation and if companys report earnings late after the quarter ends, is it normally due to having a bad quarter. Another question is if there is no news released between earnings by the company is it generally a bad sign. Also if insiders are buying stock are there any things to be concerned about, such as number of shares being purchased and during which quarter the shares are purchased. Any advice would be helpful and appreciated. Thanks Frank - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: [CANSLIM] "M" Date: 01 Aug 1998 11:05:26 -0400 As one further comment from a lurker on "M" as it applies to CS type stocks, there were only 87 stocks in the Daily Graphs books that hit a new high this past week. Don't remember when the total was last so low. Tom W - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Nelson E. Timken, Esq." Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] "M" Date: 01 Aug 1998 12:22:59 -0400 Probably the last bear market, Tom. Losers outnumbered winners 3-1 on Friday. The only winner last week I can recall was Clorox, which surprised with good earnings and went up 8. The only way a stock goes up significantly is to announce earnings far exceeding those expected...then you get heavily rewarded. But announce poor earnings or that things are slowing (ala PG) and watch how they mow you down. It's brutal out there. Nelson E. Timken http://onelist.com/subscribe.cgi/investing-list -----Original Message----- [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of Tom Worley Sent: Saturday, August 01, 1998 11:05 AM As one further comment from a lurker on "M" as it applies to CS type stocks, there were only 87 stocks in the Daily Graphs books that hit a new high this past week. Don't remember when the total was last so low. Tom W - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] earnings release dates and sec filings, and insider buying . Date: 01 Aug 1998 16:47:57 EDT Neilson E. Timken, I choose not to mention the name of the other group intentionally. I can appreciate your concern, however do you have any suggestions on my origional question. It may seem like a insignificant question but I am trying to learn as much of the markets as I can. Thank you Frank D. Mulack - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Michael Doroshenko" Subject: [CANSLIM] EMA Date: 01 Aug 1998 16:00:39 -0500 Hello Group: I am working on a project to chart my own portfolio and also have a watch list of stocks. I am beginning to get into the technical part of charting. What I am confused about is the significance of EMA compared to SMA. I have seen how EMA is calculated and that is throwing me off as to the significance of this indicator. Could someone shed some light into why I would want to use an EMA and to what benefit it has over using a SMA. I just have the information on how it is calculated and have no information on how to use it in the chart or what significance it has as a technical indicator. If you need further clarification on what I am asking here, you can email me at mdor@msn.com. Thank you Michael Doroshenko - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Nelson E. Timken, Esq." Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] earnings release dates and sec filings, and insider buying . Date: 01 Aug 1998 17:30:34 -0400 Frainke D. Molluske: No suggestions for you. Hope you leiarne well. Start with Speilling. :) "Neilson" -----Original Message----- [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of Mulack@aol.com Sent: Saturday, August 01, 1998 4:48 PM insider buying . Neilson E. Timken, I choose not to mention the name of the other group intentionally. I can appreciate your concern, however do you have any suggestions on my origional question. It may seem like a insignificant question but I am trying to learn as much of the markets as I can. Thank you Frank D. Mulack - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Warren Keuffel Subject: [CANSLIM] Shorts Date: 01 Aug 1998 15:37:50 -0600 Count me in on a shorts discussion also. In addition I would be interested in an off-topic discussion on whether and how members diversify beyond stock picking with CANSLIM. One person mentioned index funds. What other strategies are employed, or do most people on the list only have their money in only either cash or CANSLIM picks? Thanks. Warren Keuffel - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Subject: [CANSLIM] Re: canslim-digest V2 #346 Date: 01 Aug 1998 17:59:14 EDT Could you take me off your mailing list? Thanks, EBaldri233@aol.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Nelson E. Timken, Esq." Subject: [CANSLIM] FW: [NOT CANSLIM] earnings release dates and sec filings, and insider buying . Date: 02 Aug 1998 09:44:02 -0400 -----Original Message----- Sent: Sunday, August 02, 1998 6:06 AM insider buying . Nelson, I find your response needlessly rude, unprofessional and unbecoming, especially to a newcomer and by another lawyer. As if Jeffrey's rude behaviour was not a sufficient example of how this group had deteriorated! Tom W -----Original Message----- insider buying . >Frainke D. Molluske: > >No suggestions for you. >Hope you leiarne well. >Start with Speilling. > >:) > >"Neilson" >-----Original Message----- >From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com >[mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of Mulack@aol.com >Sent: Saturday, August 01, 1998 4:48 PM >To: canslim@lists.xmission.com >Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] earnings release dates and sec filings, and >insider buying . > > >Neilson E. Timken, > >I choose not to mention the name of the other group intentionally. I can >appreciate your concern, however do you have any suggestions on my origional >question. It may seem like a insignificant question but I am trying to >learn >as much of the markets as I can. > >Thank you > >Frank D. Mulack > >- > > >- > - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: TM Subject: [CANSLIM] noncanslim-Tom-Computer Buys Date: 02 Aug 1998 07:45:45 -0700 (PDT) Hi Tom, I was reading the first article on: http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/current/topten.htx?source=htx/http2_mw " Computerized sell programs throttled the U.S. stock market Friday, turning what had been a moderate downdraft into a fierce selloff that saddled blue-chip issues with their second-worst loss in seven weeks." How does computerized selling (or buying) work? What would be typical triggers? Also, typically is there any human thought, at the moment the program is implemented - who pulls the trigger a person or a computer? I would think a great deal of thought would go into getting the program set-up, but once the program is set-up, is it on autopilot? I would appreciate any comments. I'll understand, if you prefer to lurk. Thank you, TM _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Al French Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] EMA Date: 02 Aug 1998 11:09:22 -0400 Michael Doroshenko wrote: > > Could someone shed some light into why > I would want to use an EMA and to what benefit it has over using a > SMA. I just have the information on how it is calculated and have no > information on how to use it in the chart or what significance it has > as a technical indicator. Michael- The place to start is to understand the significance of moving averages, then the difference between EMA and SMA should become more clear. The EMA is weighted toward the more pertinent recent price action while SMA gives equal weight to each day in the calculation. For example, with SMA, the MA could change significantly on a no-change day if the data point dropped off was a big move; EMA lessens that distortion. You might be interested in Stan Weinstein's "Secrets for Profiting in Bull and Bear Markets" which presents a solid system of technical analysis based simply on moving averages, trendlines, volume, and a couple of standard chart formations. Combine that with CANSLIM, which takes fundamentals into account, and you will be way ahead of most investors. Al French alfrench@erols.com -- - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Dan Cash Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] FW: [NOT CANSLIM] earnings release dates and sec filings, Date: 02 Aug 1998 08:29:16 -0700 Nelson, It seems this was a private post to you from Tom. Seems to me, you should have have responded in kind. Dan Nelson E. Timken, Esq. wrote: > -----Original Message----- > From: Tom Worley [mailto:stkguru@netside.net] > Sent: Sunday, August 02, 1998 6:06 AM > To: Nelson E. Timken Esq. > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] earnings release dates and sec filings, and > insider buying . > > Nelson, I find your response needlessly rude, unprofessional and > unbecoming, especially to a newcomer and by another lawyer. As if > Jeffrey's rude behaviour was not a sufficient example of how this > group had deteriorated! > > Tom W > > -----Original Message----- > From: Nelson E. Timken, Esq. > To: canslim@lists.xmission.com > Date: Saturday, August 01, 1998 5:30 PM > Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] earnings release dates and sec filings, and > insider buying . > > >Frainke D. Molluske: > > > >No suggestions for you. > >Hope you leiarne well. > >Start with Speilling. > > > >:) > > > >"Neilson" > >-----Original Message----- > >From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com > >[mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of Mulack@aol.com > >Sent: Saturday, August 01, 1998 4:48 PM > >To: canslim@lists.xmission.com > >Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] earnings release dates and sec filings, and > >insider buying . > > > > > >Neilson E. Timken, > > > >I choose not to mention the name of the other group intentionally. I > can > >appreciate your concern, however do you have any suggestions on my > origional > >question. It may seem like a insignificant question but I am trying > to > >learn > >as much of the markets as I can. > > > >Thank you > > > >Frank D. Mulack > > > >- > > > > > >- > > > > - > - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Nelson E. Timken, Esq." Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] FW: [NOT CANSLIM] earnings release dates and sec filings, and insider buying . Date: 02 Aug 1998 11:42:24 -0400 Dan: I think he should have posted it, which is why I did. I won't belabor it. It speaks for itself. I don't want to get into a p***ing contest the likes of which I have seen before. It just isn't worth it. Nelson - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Johan Van Houtven Subject: non [CANSLIM] Psychological aspects of trading. Acquiring a Date: 02 Aug 1998 19:29:47 +0200 What do you think about the following: There is a skill you want to acquire. You want to be able to ride a bicycle. What is the best way to acquire that skill and become a good bicyclist? 1) Should you start by reading as much as you can about bicycling? 2) Should you get a bike and get on with it? 3) Should you find a trainer (mom, dad, brother, sister, best cyclist you know, ...) and get to it? Questions I'm asking myself and some comments about points 1 to 3: 1) Has anyone ever learned to ride a bike, i.e. acquired the skill, by reading books about it? Or can one safely say that by reading books about cycling one mostly acquires *knowledge* about riding a bicycle and not skill? Even after reading lot's of books about it? 2) Can you learn to ride a bike on your own, without ever having seen how one rides a bike? Possibly, but it seems to me that it would help quite a lot if you could see how it is done correctly. 3) Is getting a trainer to help you learn to ride a bike the best way to go *if* you want to acquire the *skill* ASAP? The better the trainer, the easier it will be? If I answer these questions myself, I can conclude that if I wanted *knowlegde* about bicycling I should reads lots of books about it. If I wanted to acquire the *skill*, i.e. be able to really ride a bike and enjoy it, I should find me a good trainer. Of course I can nitpick the details of this reasoning. But the more important question is: Is the above basically correct? Now comes the part that has to do with trading/investing. How does the above apply to learning about the psychological aspects of trading/investing? Can one learn it easily, simple by reading books about it? Does reading books about automatically give you the skill? Or do you primerily acquire knowledge, not skill, by reading these kind of books? Is one often merily *hoping* that one acquires the skills by reading the books? Have you ever felt really excited after reading a good book about investing, only to find it of little *practical* use as time wore on? I currently think that learning to cycle is about conditioning your body to have certain necessary reflexes (almost) automatically. And that learning the psychological aspecst of trading/investing is about conditioning your brain to have certain necessary reflexes (almost) automatically. Enough questions for one post, I would think. But I would like to take it one step further in one of the next posts: What does one answer if someone asks how he/she can best learn CANSLIM investing? Constructive critisism welcome. Johan Van Houtven / CLICK! N.V. - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] earnings release dates and sec filings, and insider buying . Date: 02 Aug 1998 17:05:14 EDT Holly Cow Nelson, you are a real winner. Your e-mail reminded me of Jr. High. Felt good to think about my youthful days. Frank D. Mulack - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Nelson E. Timken, Esq." Subject: [CANSLIM] RE: [NON CANSLIM] earnings release dates and sec filings, and insider buying . Date: 02 Aug 1998 17:29:28 -0400 Thanks Frank! You really made my day! And all because I was silly enough to ask you a simple question... Oh well... and now back to losing money in the stock market. Nelson -----Original Message----- [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of Mulack@aol.com Sent: Sunday, August 02, 1998 5:05 PM insider buying . Holly Cow Nelson, you are a real winner. Your e-mail reminded me of Jr. High. Felt good to think about my youthful days. Frank D. Mulack - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Nelson E. Timken, Esq." Subject: RE: non [CANSLIM] Psychological aspects of trading. Acquiring a skill. Date: 02 Aug 1998 17:33:35 -0400 Unfortunately, the only way to learn some things, such as investing, is by doing them. And that involves risk, and losing money. Much the same way riding a bicycle the first time may involve the risk of falling off. You can't learn to ride a bike by reading a book. My approach is to always try to read about something first and then to try it for real, or to read about it, talk to someone who has done it, and then try it for real. In the case of Canslim, I'd read WON, then speak to others like the people in this group, and finally attempt to implement the ideas in a real time setting. Nelson -----Original Message----- [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of Johan Van Houtven Sent: Sunday, August 02, 1998 1:30 PM skill. What do you think about the following: There is a skill you want to acquire. You want to be able to ride a bicycle. What is the best way to acquire that skill and become a good bicyclist? 1) Should you start by reading as much as you can about bicycling? 2) Should you get a bike and get on with it? 3) Should you find a trainer (mom, dad, brother, sister, best cyclist you know, ...) and get to it? Questions I'm asking myself and some comments about points 1 to 3: 1) Has anyone ever learned to ride a bike, i.e. acquired the skill, by reading books about it? Or can one safely say that by reading books about cycling one mostly acquires *knowledge* about riding a bicycle and not skill? Even after reading lot's of books about it? 2) Can you learn to ride a bike on your own, without ever having seen how one rides a bike? Possibly, but it seems to me that it would help quite a lot if you could see how it is done correctly. 3) Is getting a trainer to help you learn to ride a bike the best way to go *if* you want to acquire the *skill* ASAP? The better the trainer, the easier it will be? If I answer these questions myself, I can conclude that if I wanted *knowlegde* about bicycling I should reads lots of books about it. If I wanted to acquire the *skill*, i.e. be able to really ride a bike and enjoy it, I should find me a good trainer. Of course I can nitpick the details of this reasoning. But the more important question is: Is the above basically correct? Now comes the part that has to do with trading/investing. How does the above apply to learning about the psychological aspects of trading/investing? Can one learn it easily, simple by reading books about it? Does reading books about automatically give you the skill? Or do you primerily acquire knowledge, not skill, by reading these kind of books? Is one often merily *hoping* that one acquires the skills by reading the books? Have you ever felt really excited after reading a good book about investing, only to find it of little *practical* use as time wore on? I currently think that learning to cycle is about conditioning your body to have certain necessary reflexes (almost) automatically. And that learning the psychological aspecst of trading/investing is about conditioning your brain to have certain necessary reflexes (almost) automatically. Enough questions for one post, I would think. But I would like to take it one step further in one of the next posts: What does one answer if someone asks how he/she can best learn CANSLIM investing? Constructive critisism welcome. Johan Van Houtven / CLICK! N.V. - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Jeffry White <"postwhit@sover.net"@sover.net> Subject: [CANSLIM] follow through day confirmation Date: 02 Aug 1998 17:54:13 -0400 > In what ways do you find all of this less vague and more reliable than > charts? > > - --Db Every way. Do you have a specific question? JW - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "James Adams" Subject: [CANSLIM] PTII Date: 03 Aug 1998 08:18:47 -0000 Greetings all. It has been a while since I posted a stock, however one that i've been following posted great qtr #s on 7/30. The stock is PTII. I don't have an IBD so any input would be greatly appreciated. MS Investor has RS as 94 First Call & Zacks rate as a strong buy. Qtr ending 6/98 estimate was .24 and they reported .30 Latest News: PTII reported excellent second quarter results on Thursday. Net sales increased 95% to $19.4 million, compared to $9.94 million for the comparable quarter last year. Net income was $1,516,244, or $0.30 per share, compared to $1,033,025, or $0.23 per share, in the comparable year-ago quarter (excluding the non-cash charge). Including that charge, PTII had a net loss of $2,811,506, or $0.59, per share, in the year-ago quarter. Most recent consensus estimates for PTII's second quarter seemed to be about $0.24. For the first six months of 1998, net income was $2,248,509 or $0.44 per diluted share compared to $0.39 per share last year excluding the non-cash charge. Also during the quarter, PTII resolved the problems that were encountered in implementing the new enterprise software, SAP R/3. Now that the new system is running properly, PTII is beginning to become more efficient and able to do more with less people. In the last week, six administrative positions were eliminated. In the second quarter, selling, general and administrative expenses dropped as a percentage of sales compared to the first quarter. PTII expects increased efficiencies during the third and fourth quarter as they continue to cut unnecessary overhead. James W. Adams.......................Maysville, KY USA http://www.cris.com/~jimadams/ - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Ari Lawson Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Re: [NonCANSLIM] Ari, did you ever buy FINL? Date: 03 Aug 1998 09:01:22 -0400 TM wrote: > I see FINL had a good day. Did you buy it when you were talking about > it in June? > TM > > ---Ari Lawson wrote: > > > > > > > > Joe Barger wrote: > > > > > IBD Group R > > > > > > > ------------------------------------------------------------------------ > > > > > > Name: RealEstOps.lst > > > RealEstOps.lst Type: LST File > (application/x-unknown-content-type-lst_auto_file) > > > Encoding: 7bit > > > > > > Name: Ret-AppShoe.lst > > > Ret-AppShoe.lst Type: LST File > (application/x-unknown-content-type-lst_auto_file) > > > Encoding: 7bit > > > > > > Name: Ret-ConsElc.lst > > > Ret-ConsElc.lst Type: LST File > (application/x-unknown-content-type-lst_auto_file) > > > Encoding: 7bit > > > > > > Name: Ret-DeptStr.lst > > > Ret-DeptStr.lst Type: LST File > (application/x-unknown-content-type-lst_auto_file) > > > Encoding: 7bit > > > > > > Name: Ret-DrugStrs.lst > > > Ret-DrugStrs.lst Type: LST File > (application/x-unknown-content-type-lst_auto_file) > > > Encoding: 7bit > > > > > > Name: Ret-HomeFur.lst > > > Ret-HomeFur.lst Type: LST File > (application/x-unknown-content-type-lst_auto_file) > > > Encoding: 7bit > > > > > > Name: Ret-Mail&Dir.lst > > > Ret-Mail&Dir.lst Type: LST File > (application/x-unknown-content-type-lst_auto_file) > > > Encoding: 7bit > > > > > > Name: Ret-MiscDivr.lst > > > Ret-MiscDivr.lst Type: LST File > (application/x-unknown-content-type-lst_auto_file) > > > Encoding: 7bit > > > > > > Name: Ret-MjrDisc.lst > > > Ret-MjrDisc.lst Type: LST File > (application/x-unknown-content-type-lst_auto_file) > > > Encoding: 7bit > > > > > > Name: Ret-Restr.lst > > > Ret-Restr.lst Type: LST File > (application/x-unknown-content-type-lst_auto_file) > > > Encoding: 7bit > > > > > > Name: Ret-SprMkts.lst > > > Ret-SprMkts.lst Type: LST File > (application/x-unknown-content-type-lst_auto_file) > > > Encoding: 7bit > > > > > > Name: Ret-WhlsBldg.lst > > > Ret-WhlsBldg.lst Type: LST File > (application/x-unknown-content-type-lst_auto_file) > > > Encoding: 7bit > > > > > > Name: Ret-WhlsComp.lst > > > Ret-WhlsComp.lst Type: LST File > (application/x-unknown-content-type-lst_auto_file) > > > Encoding: 7bit > > > > > > Name: Ret-WhlsOffSp.lst > > > Ret-WhlsOffSp.lst Type: LST File > (application/x-unknown-content-type-lst_auto_file) > > > Encoding: 7bit > > > > Dear Joe, > > I'm missing A,B,C,D, of this list. could you please send it to me? > > Thanks Ari > > arilaw@erols.com > > > > > > - > > > >No i didn't.Thanks for the files.Ari > > _________________________________________________________ > DO YOU YAHOO!? > Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com > > - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: TM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] PTII Date: 03 Aug 1998 07:07:49 -0700 (PDT) I looked and don't see PT Holding in either IBD or WSJ. TM ---James Adams wrote: > > Greetings all. It has been a while since I posted a stock, however one that > i've been following posted great qtr #s on 7/30. > The stock is PTII. I don't have an IBD so any input would be greatly > appreciated. > MS Investor has RS as 94 > First Call & Zacks rate as a strong buy. > Qtr ending 6/98 estimate was .24 and they reported .30 > Latest News: > PTII reported excellent second quarter results on Thursday. Net sales > increased 95% to $19.4 million, compared to $9.94 million for the > comparable quarter last year. Net income was $1,516,244, or $0.30 per > share, compared to $1,033,025, or $0.23 per share, in the comparable > year-ago quarter (excluding the non-cash charge). Including that > charge, PTII had a net loss of $2,811,506, or $0.59, per share, in the > year-ago quarter. Most recent consensus estimates for PTII's second > quarter seemed to be about $0.24. > For the first six months of 1998, net income was $2,248,509 or $0.44 > per diluted share compared to $0.39 per share last year excluding the > non-cash charge. > Also during the quarter, PTII resolved the problems that were > encountered in implementing the new enterprise software, SAP R/3. Now > that the new system is running properly, PTII is beginning to become > more efficient and able to do more with less people. In the last week, > six administrative positions were eliminated. In the second quarter, > selling, general and administrative expenses dropped as a percentage > of sales compared to the first quarter. PTII expects increased > efficiencies during the third and fourth quarter as they continue to > cut unnecessary overhead. > > James W. Adams.......................Maysville, KY USA > http://www.cris.com/~jimadams/ > > > > - > > _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: musicant@autobahn.org (Dan Musicant) Subject: Re: non [CANSLIM] Psychological aspects of trading. Acquiring a skill. Date: 03 Aug 1998 03:21:02 GMT On Sun, 2 Aug 1998 17:33:35 -0400, you wrote: :Unfortunately, the only way to learn some things, such as investing, is = by :doing them. And that involves risk, and losing money. Much the same way :riding a bicycle the first time may involve the risk of falling off. You :can't learn to ride a bike by reading a book. My approach is to always = try :to read about something first and then to try it for real, or to read = about :it, talk to someone who has done it, and then try it for real. In the = case :of Canslim, I'd read WON, then speak to others like the people in this :group, and finally attempt to implement the ideas in a real time = setting. : :Nelson Personally, I think it's a lot easier to learn to ride a bicycle than to be an effective, strike that... a *masterful* CANSLIM investor. I don't want to get deeply into that, but I believe it is worth considering the notion that certain *personality types* are apt to clash with it while others will take to it. Different folks DO have far different personalities, eh?=20 Another notion that I don't recall bantied about on this board, but which does find some *discussion* in my inner dialog is the question of just how wise it is to adopt another person's system. This may be regarded as sacrilege in a forum the very existence of which is based on Wm O'Neil's system, but that doesn't suppress or answer this legitimate concern. As Wm Blake said, "I must develop my own system or be enslaved by another man's." It was something to that effect. Now, I have learned a lot reading O'Neil. He's a smart man. He does not lead a cult and I don't believe he is accumulating slavish followers. When you use O'Neil's methods (or anybody's, be they Sperandeo's or strictly your own) you must be willing to take responsibility for your actions.=20 Perhaps I should not speak for DB, but he posted quite some time ago (probably around 8 months or more) that CANSLIM should be best mastered by adhering to it fairly strictly until one understands it and is capable of applying its particular disciplines. I copied the post and will paste it below. The context was how and how much one should allow one's self to stray from CANSLIM tenants, and DB's position was that it's fine to develop one's own tendencies, but it is best to be *orthodox* until one *has it down*, as it were. Below is the original material (my pardons to DB for the piracy). Included is my response. I should have heeded my own words a lot better, because my performance from that point forward (10/6/97) until the end of the year was pretty much a total disaster. I'm doing better this year, but have my fingers crossed: I found out twice last year how fast you can lose your equity chasing rainbows. And it's beginning to look like it might be *that time* again. Dan ---- << While I'm at it, I do have a question. I get most of the concepts in the book, but one is bothering me. It seems that the "N" is not consistent with "C" and "A". If a company is coming out with a new product, isn't it going to take a while to show up in earnings? Is investing base on "N" just more speculative or do you wait until the earnings start to move? >> CS is not only an investment approach, it is a discipline. IMO, if you're new to investing, or at least new to CS, it's important to include all seven elements in your choices as well as learning the charting techniques required for selecting buy and sell points. Later, when you've acquired the discipline and the skills for investing in general and using CS in particular, you may want to experiment with fudging here and there. But to do so at the beginning can lead to serious errors. "N" has several aspects to it and is, in turn, one of seven elements. Don't select a stock just because "N" is there; select it because all seven are there, including "N". This helps you stay focused on the best of the best and not get distracted by speculative touts. -----Db 10/6/97=20 My answer at that time: Well spoken, Db. I have clipped this and intend to reread it like a mantra -- over and over, hoping it will *sink in*! I think it characterizes my *recent* investment success and failure rather well. Of course, there *is* no perfect CANSLIM investment, but I believe that thinking of the technique as a comprehensive discipline is the best way to benefit from it. Thus IBD purports to be for the "disciplined investor."=20 Dan musicant@autobahn.org - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Nelson E. Timken, Esq." Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] PTII Date: 03 Aug 1998 08:34:40 -0400 According to the latest news, PTII just acquired a license to distribute the Spice Girls bicycle and helmet, and has received 3Mil in pre-order commitments. Chart fluctuates between 6 and 9, with peaks near the end of each earnings quarter. See: http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/980803/ny_pti_hol_1.html Nelson -----Original Message----- [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of James Adams Sent: Monday, August 03, 1998 4:19 AM Greetings all. It has been a while since I posted a stock, however one that i've been following posted great qtr #s on 7/30. The stock is PTII. I don't have an IBD so any input would be greatly appreciated. MS Investor has RS as 94 First Call & Zacks rate as a strong buy. Qtr ending 6/98 estimate was .24 and they reported .30 Latest News: PTII reported excellent second quarter results on Thursday. Net sales increased 95% to $19.4 million, compared to $9.94 million for the comparable quarter last year. Net income was $1,516,244, or $0.30 per share, compared to $1,033,025, or $0.23 per share, in the comparable year-ago quarter (excluding the non-cash charge). Including that charge, PTII had a net loss of $2,811,506, or $0.59, per share, in the year-ago quarter. Most recent consensus estimates for PTII's second quarter seemed to be about $0.24. For the first six months of 1998, net income was $2,248,509 or $0.44 per diluted share compared to $0.39 per share last year excluding the non-cash charge. Also during the quarter, PTII resolved the problems that were encountered in implementing the new enterprise software, SAP R/3. Now that the new system is running properly, PTII is beginning to become more efficient and able to do more with less people. In the last week, six administrative positions were eliminated. In the second quarter, selling, general and administrative expenses dropped as a percentage of sales compared to the first quarter. PTII expects increased efficiencies during the third and fourth quarter as they continue to cut unnecessary overhead. James W. Adams.......................Maysville, KY USA http://www.cris.com/~jimadams/ - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: dbphoenix Subject: Re: non [CANSLIM] Psychological aspects of trading. Acquiring a skill. Date: 03 Aug 1998 08:47:21 -0700 (PDT) <> When I first read Johan's post, I thought he was talking about investor psychology in general, that is, the psychological dynamics of all those other investors who make up "the market". If I misinterpreted his remarks (I no longer have the post) and he was talking about individual psychology, I suggest that anyone who's having a problem with this or who is simply curious about it look at Methods Of A Wall Street Master by Victor Sperandeo. The process of facing one's own dynamic--especially as it relates to money--can be a painful one, dealing as it does with one's feelings of self-confidence, competence and self-worth; one's attitudes towards money and success; one's ability to learn and to learn from one's mistakes; how easily one is persuaded by others; one's attitudes towards authority, etc., etc., etc. There's so much more to all this than just "being objective" or "banishing hope and fear". But, IMO, all of it must be addressed by anyone who wishes to be successful at directing his own portfolio over the long term. --Db _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: mckeener@ix.netcom.com Subject: [CANSLIM] Re: non (CANSLIM) Psychological aspects of trading. Acquiring a skill. Date: 03 Aug 1998 12:38:53 -0500 (CDT) Johan Van Houtven, People acquire skills best in different ways depending upon their learning styles and what works for them. Of course, one's financial situation would be important in the field of trading. I learn most effectively by actually trading because as I profit and lose, psychologically, the fact that I am using "real" money motivates me. A very successful fellow investor paper- traded for a year before he even considered actually trading. This worked for him. I tried it for a few months. It didn't work for me. Reading is beneficial for me because I enjoy reading. I want to avoid some mistakes (I've made more than a few) that experienced, knowledgeable professionals such as O'Neil will point out. Reading enhances knowledge and, as you know, knowledge is power. It isn't the only way to gain understanding. Videoptapes, audiotapes, computers, seminars, - whatever works for you. Oh yes, I have found some books to be of hardly any use to me, probably because of my personality, my way of doing things, not necessarily the fault of the author. If someone were to ask me the best way to learn CANSLIM, I would suggest following O'Neil's book and adapting it to their own comfort level based on discipline and sound strategy. No one can tell you EXACTLY how to do something. It just never is that simple. Everything requires hard work, time, commitment, some failure to learn more, and all these factors vary with individuals. Just a few thoughts quickly jotted down here. Open to more suggestions and opinions. Regards, Mary - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Tom Moulton Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] [NOT] Psychological aspects of trading. Acquiring a skill. Date: 03 Aug 1998 14:02:22 -0400 mckeener@ix.netcom.com wrote: > Just a few thoughts quickly jotted down here. Open to more > suggestions and opinions. > I have read a few books (Not enough) but so far I have read two that i felt were worth reading more than once. Stock Market Miricles[sp] Wade Cook - I read it twice and it gave a beginner a lot of ideas of HOW you can trade. It was a good first book but dangerous if read alone. HTMMIS (WON) Three times... Biggest thing I got out of it was WHAT to trade... how to find stocks worth buying... I now need to find a WHEN to trade book... <<<<< ok ok here's the point>>>>> the books are nice, but you need to find the right books and then make sure you put it to pratice... some paper trade, some use cash for *all* their learning, I've been paper trading in one of the many internet stock games and I have found that helpfull. What ever you do you must treat the trades as if they were cash trades and do it day after day so that some of the decisions will become instinctive (8% sell stop for example) tom - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Mike Lucero Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] follow through day calculation Date: 03 Aug 1998 11:05:57 -0700 Here are the results of my tactics. I sold 10% on Monday 7/27 (expecting a market rally), 10% on Tuesday, 40% Wednesday, and 40% Friday. If I had just sold everything at the close of Monday, I would be 10% richer. Mike On Friday, July 31, 1998 12:55 PM, Mike Lucero [SMTP:mikelu@foxinternet.net] wrote: > I would have been much better off to sell last week, but I missed the > signals, and now I'm trying to make the most of my positions. I think I sold > 8/10 today so far. > > I got out in time in April, and it feels much better to do that. > > Mike > > -----Original Message----- > > From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com > > [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of Tim Fisher > > Sent: Friday, July 31, 1998 12:04 PM > > To: canslim@lists.xmission.com > > Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] follow through day calculation > > > > > > Hmmm, I assumed you were using WON stops. Guess not. I was, and > > I'm decidedly > > O*U*T. > > > > At 11:29 AM 7/31/98 -0700, you wrote: > > >< > >150% > > >invested on Monday. I thought I'd do better by selling when stocks > > >invidivually (when each stocks rallied and failed, or broke local > > >resistance) rather than selling everything all at once. > > > > > >Mike>> > > > > > > > Tim Fisher, 1995 President, Pacific Fishery Biologists > > Ore-ROCK-On Rockhounding Web Site > > PFB Information > > mailto:tim@OreRockOn.com > > WWW http://OreRockOn.com > > > > - > > > > > > > - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: dbphoenix Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] follow through day calculation Date: 03 Aug 1998 11:47:15 -0700 (PDT) <> I hope you're not beating yourself up over it, Mike. This stuff is always clearer in hindsight. You could just as easily have used the distribution days on the 7th or 15th as an opportunity to lighten up. As O'N reminds us, the pros sell on the way up. --Db _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: TM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] [NOT] Psychological aspects of trading. Acquiring a skill. Date: 03 Aug 1998 12:40:16 -0700 (PDT) I wouldn't buy either of these, but I am glad to have the opportunity to read them; I have them on interlibrary loan. I am reading , "Divining the Dow" by Maturi. He focus would be "M", although he is not CANSLIM. His idea is that investment strategies do not operate in a vacuum. He goes into technicals and indicators and tells about investment theories in general- weird and not so weird. Eller has "Trading Rules II". He has 50 "Rules" in which he explains how buyers and sellers might be analyzing a specific situation. "Right now I am on Rule 14: Narrowness Always Follows A Violent Market Move; thus, When Stocks "Mark Time," You do the same." He discusses the reassessment process that investors go through during this regrouping process. IMHO, other than O'Neil, Alexander Elder is the best for figuring out when to trade, ala Walter on our board. The book: "Trading for A Living". Martin Zweig's "Winning on Wall Street" explains how to spot market trends early, ala Jeffry. I own both these books and read Elder as often as I read WON. I usually use Zweig to look up comments about "M". ---Tom Moulton wrote: > > mckeener@ix.netcom.com wrote: > > > Just a few thoughts quickly jotted down here. Open to more > > suggestions and opinions. > > > > I have read a few books (Not enough) but so far I have read two > that i felt were worth reading more than once. > > Stock Market Miricles[sp] Wade Cook - I read it twice and it gave > a beginner a lot of ideas of HOW you can trade. It was a good first > book but dangerous if read alone. > > HTMMIS (WON) Three times... Biggest thing I got out of it was WHAT > to trade... how to find stocks worth buying... > > I now need to find a WHEN to trade book... > > > <<<<< ok ok here's the point>>>>> > > the books are nice, but you need to find the right books > and then make sure you put it to pratice... some paper trade, > some use cash for *all* their learning, I've been paper trading > in one of the many internet stock games and I have found that helpfull. > > What ever you do you must treat the trades as if they were cash trades > and do it day after day so that some of the decisions will become > instinctive > (8% sell stop for example) > > tom > > > - > > _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Walter Stock" Subject: [CANSLIM] Re: exhaustion gap? Date: 03 Aug 1998 17:39:53 PDT > Hi, Walter > > your wrote: > 'The Market column (Tuesday edition), > fully three are classic exhaustion gaps: WLA, CNF and FVB. > As Elder says, "exhaustion gaps appear at the end of trends."' > > Please favor me with your definition of "exhaustion gap". Hi Anthony, Sorry to be so long in responding, but I have been on vacation for over a week, and just got back to my keyboard. Looks like I didn't miss much of a market. My trading account is still 100% cash for now. I also moved some cash in my retirement account into bonds before going on vacation. I don't have a definition of exhaustion gap of my own, but just rely on Elder's. On page 99 of his book he says: " Exhaustion gaps appear at the ends of trends. Prices rise or fall for several weeks or months, and then gap in the direction of the trend. At first an exhaustion gap looks like a continuation gap - a leap in the direction of the trend on heavy volume. If prices fail to reach new highs or new lows for several days after the gap, it is probably an exhaustion gap. An exhaustion gap is confirmed only when prices reverse and close it. This gap is like the last spurt of a tired athlete. He springs away from the pack but cannot sustain the pace; as soon as others close in on him, you know that he will lose the race." On the next page Elder offers ideas about how to trade them: " Exhaustion gaps offer attractive trading opportunities because they are often followed by violent reversals. When you identify an upside exhaustion gap, sell short and place a protective stop above the latest high. Once prices begin to slide weak bulls will start bailing out. Stay short as long as prices continue to reach new lows and cover the day after prices fail to make a new low...." Elder has a lot more to offer on this kind of gap and on other kinds as well. Hope this helps, Walter Stock (yes, that really is my last name) Oakville, ONT - Canada - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: TM Subject: [CANSLIM] Noncanslim -research question -Db? Date: 04 Aug 1998 08:02:58 -0700 (PDT) There was discussion on this board about surrogates, probably in June, and I'm having trouble getting into the archives lately. I'd appreciate help. Are there indices for (what I'll call uncommon) groups like advertising, auto parts, and furniture? If so, where would I find them? I recall, Db, that you make your own. Right now, I don't have that capability so I'd settle for preformed indices. Also, I've been noticing that ^SOXX finishes in the black on these otherwise red days. How do I find out the components of ^SOXX? It seems like there was a site where one could put in a keyword and get lists of indices beyond the most common 20-30. I thought it was bigcharts or yahoo, but can't find them. Thanks, _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: TM Subject: [CANSLIM] How does the world treat Traders? Connie Date: 04 Aug 1998 08:20:48 -0700 (PDT) Connie Mack I feel as though I am imposing on your privacy since you have not posted for awhile. If I am breaching a code by this posting, please accept my appologies. I read somewhere recently that daytraders and long term investors can make money in this market, but generally not intermediate traders. The way I see it, a daytrader would have immediate feedback, while it may take awhile for the long termer to see results. If you don't mind sharing your experience, what are you finding now? Do you use the same OBV/MF price divergence indicators in all markets? Elder mentions the parabolic trading system. Is the parabolic SAR good to use in this type of market for daytraders? I'm not planning on daytrading anytime soon, but reading your postings about trading add depth and understanding. Tannis _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: dbphoenix Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Noncanslim -research question -Db? Date: 04 Aug 1998 09:12:42 -0700 (PDT) <> As far as I know, there aren't, though AUX does include but is not limited to auto parts. As far as making your own, you can do that with a little extra work at Yahoo. Set up a Yahoo portfolio with the components of your index (you can use the stocks which Joe provided) and "buy" whatever you're going to buy (probably equal dollar amounts unless you want to get into weighting) so that you have a portfolio value as of that date, then track the portfolio value from day to day on a spreadsheet. I know this is a pain, but without a program that allows you to create composite securities, I don't know of any other way. You can do without Yahoo entirely and do it all on a spreadsheet, but I'm not a spreadsheet wizard so I can't help you there. <> This is what I have, though it's a year old and I can't remember where I got it. I believe it was phlx.com, but they're not answering right now. Perhaps you'll have better luck later or someone else has a more up-to-date list. INTC 21.169 % TXN 10.359 % MOT 9.784 % NVLS 8.615 % LSCC 7.261 % AMAT 5.705 % ADI 5.456 % MU 4.82 % LSI 4.267 % AMD 4.102 % TER 3.897 % NSM 3.877 % VLSI 3.733 % IRF 2.461 % CY 2.256 % IDTI 2.174 % Obviously, since the top five account for nearly 60% of the index, those five are the stocks to watch (same for the Nasdaq: the top few stocks account for a huge percentage of the Nasdaq itself, which is why so many consider it to be a large-cap tech-stock index today rather than a small cap index). The CBOE site also has a lot of indices and their components if you're interested in indices other than SOX. <> It's bigcharts and the tab is at the top under "quick chart" (Indexes). Click that and you'll get your keyword page. --Db _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: dbphoenix Subject: [CANSLIM] Trendlines and Moving Averages, FWIW--Non-CANSLIM--Skip If Uninterested Date: 04 Aug 1998 10:23:13 -0700 (PDT) We may be nearing the end, or the beginning of the end depending on your personal scenario. Dow Transports are sitting on a long-term trendline going back two years. The industrials are nearing their 200d and a long-term trendline also dating back two years (the beginning of this entire move). Ditto with the NYSE. The Nasdaq is a different story, so heavily weighted as it is with MSFT, INTC, DELL and so forth. I'd like to hear the thoughts of others who are interested in this sort of thing regarding their analysis of the Nasdaq pattern. Perhaps the Naz will simply fall in line with the other indices in terms of percentage loss and stop short of its 200d, though reaching it would require only another 50 pt drop beyond 10%. Thoughts? --Db _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Johan Van Houtven Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Trendlines and Moving Averages, Date: 04 Aug 1998 20:30:13 +0200 Just a quick note: Yep we SHOULD be nearning the end. After all, we have had a "bear market now for almost a full TWO weeks! That is 10 trading days. If I had my calculator handy, I'd tell you how many hours that would be, but you are better of not knowing anyway, I guess. And what a bear market it has been! They hardly put in any of those nifty counter trend rallies like we used to have. I mean, look at it, what did we get... a counter-trend ralley of 2 days tops is nothing to write home about, is it?? I hear a lot of buy-the-dippers are hurting bad, real bad. I ask you: I there no decency anymore? Seems like some people are forgetting that this is the USA. We do not have bear markets here anymore. So I'm calling the end right now. From here it will be straight up again. After all, if we can get this low in 10 trading days, we should be able to be a new highs in approximately what, 3 to 4 weeks, no? Make that 1 or 2 weeks, no time to waste. --- Seriously though: I think we might be due for a technical bounce somewhere between now and a couple of days. Or a complete breakdown. (Just had to put that in.) But who cares? If adv/decl doesn't start to improve (drastically) a bounced would be a shorting opportunity IMO. IF we are close to the bottom now, it will take quite a while to repair all the damage that has been done. Maybe not THAT much in the bigger caps, but certainly a lot in the small caps. Just came home, going to have a closer look now, seems bears were having a parade today... Sorry for my silly attempt at humour in the first 3 paragraphs. Had a stressful day (not market related). >We may be nearing the end, or the beginning of the end depending on >your personal scenario. Dow Transports are sitting on a long-term >trendline going back two years. The industrials are nearing their >200d and a long-term trendline also dating back two years (the >beginning of this entire move). Ditto with the NYSE. > >The Nasdaq is a different story, so heavily weighted as it is with >MSFT, INTC, DELL and so forth. I'd like to hear the thoughts of >others who are interested in this sort of thing regarding their >analysis of the Nasdaq pattern. Perhaps the Naz will simply fall in >line with the other indices in terms of percentage loss and stop short >of its 200d, though reaching it would require only another 50 pt drop >beyond 10%. Thoughts? > >--Db > > >_________________________________________________________ >DO YOU YAHOO!? >Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com > > >- > > Johan Van Houtven / CLICK! N.V. - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: TM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Trendlines and Moving Averages, FWIW--Non-CANSLIM--Skip If Uninterested Date: 04 Aug 1998 11:47:37 -0700 (PDT) Speaking of percentage losses: These are some random IBD groups that I track. These probably overlap with Joe's groups. I use the closing price on the day before the group is featured in IBD on the companies in the news page. There are more, just take forever to check. group, date, % off, Medical Software, 6/5/, 18%, but TPRS up 303% Com Optical Recog, 6/18, 7.5% Generic Drgs, 5/13, 4.58%, but PRX up 38% Construction Equip/ 6/29, 5.30% Foods, 6/17, 18.45% but several up BTW, thanks for the indices, Db. ---dbphoenix wrote: > > > > We may be nearing the end, or the beginning of the end depending on > your personal scenario. Dow Transports are sitting on a long-term > trendline going back two years. The industrials are nearing their > 200d and a long-term trendline also dating back two years (the > beginning of this entire move). Ditto with the NYSE. > > The Nasdaq is a different story, so heavily weighted as it is with > MSFT, INTC, DELL and so forth. I'd like to hear the thoughts of > others who are interested in this sort of thing regarding their > analysis of the Nasdaq pattern. Perhaps the Naz will simply fall in > line with the other indices in terms of percentage loss and stop short > of its 200d, though reaching it would require only another 50 pt drop > beyond 10%. Thoughts? > > --Db > > > _________________________________________________________ > DO YOU YAHOO!? > Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com > > > - > > _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: dbphoenix Subject: [CANSLIM] Circuit Breakers, FYI Date: 04 Aug 1998 12:16:22 -0700 (PDT) From Briefing.com With the Dow having dropped 226 points earlier in the day, it prompted some of our readers to incquire about circuit breakers, so here is a reminder... Note that the old 350 and 550 points circuit-breakers no longer apply -- the new circuit breakers are set quarterly and are based on percentage declines of 10, 20, and 30 percent. The Q3 circuit breakers have been set at 900, 1750, and 2650 points. The first circuit-breaker at -900 would halt trading for an hour if it occurred before 2:00 ET, for a half hour if before 2:30 ET, and have no impact if it was hit after 2:30 ET... In short, the circuit-breakers are not a factor today. _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Kim Hinshaw <70264.1444@compuserve.com> Subject: [CANSLIM] Not directly CS- Having a plan Date: 04 Aug 1998 15:27:06 -0400 -------------Forwarded Message----------------- RE: Not directly CS- Having a plan In the hope that I am not digressing too far from direct canslim materials, I though I would share what having a written market plan for the various market contingencies has meant and done for me. It has made my investing life much more simple. Every day before the market closes if possible, or for sure that night I just have to ask myself if what I planned to change my mind to intermediate term bullish has happened. So far the answer has been no, thus no new positions are considered. I have made a decision for now based on warnings from people I respect greatly to not short so that is not a consideration for me at this point. It has help me with a time management problem I was having. I wasted time that could of been used more productively, just looking at quotes go by on the internet page. Now by having also made the decision that I am not a short term trader, and having a stop in place on my one open position, I realize that watching quotes is at times fun and engulfing but not the best use of my time. I would rather have my groups put together for the next time I get a preplanned bullish signal. Having a plan has helped me control my emotions and made me more disciplined. It someone would of forced me to place a bet on the market a week ago I would of bet on a stronger rally attempt. However I lived by the plan. It did seem the market was more volatile and disconcerting then usual, but my plan kept me from having any knee jerk reactions to any of this. Having a written versus not written plan has prevented the temptation of selective cheating. I had decided in advance where the trend line or whatever indicator I had used in planning fell and have written numbers to refer to. I feel that this has helped me to not be tempted to redraw the line a little differently because of personal bias of wanting to do or see something that is not the reality. I had made up a worksheet for stock purchases but until now had not had a though out plan for the general market. I have now made it a goal to do so on a weekly basis. Every airline departure by regulation has to file a flight plan with all foreseeable contingencies planned for. I though about how nerve wracking it would be to find out the weather was below landing minimums, and not have a plan of what alternate airport you were going to use, or if you still had enough fuel to get there. Not the kind of spot decisions you want to make under pressure with no previous planning. Yet I was making some market decisions without previous planning while thinking I am approaching investing as professionally as I can with my experience. As others are found of saying, your milage may vary. Thanks to all of you that took the time to comment on my previous market analysis. I studied all comments very carefully and all were appreciated. If other new canslimers and those with more experience would being willing to post the things they did that had the biggest impact on making them better investors I would be most interested. Regards, Kim Hinshaw - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: dbphoenix Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] TLs and MAs--Non-CS: Tannis Date: 04 Aug 1998 12:24:19 -0700 (PDT) <> If you have time on your hands, it would be interesting to determine what had been the leaders in each group and calculate their declines from their peaks. This might give you a better idea of the true strength or weakness of the "group". With the advance-decline in such bad shape, it's going to take some nimbleness and creativity to spot the leaders coming out of this correction (I don't think it's a pullback anymore :) ). --Db _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Not directly CS- Having a plan Date: 04 Aug 1998 15:39:44 EDT I have noticed alot of philosophical interest. I would like to see more actual trades. Perhaps this network is geared more to the new investor since the info seems pretty shallow. Feedback? Dave - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Johan Van Houtven Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Not directly CS- Having a plan Date: 04 Aug 1998 22:04:16 +0200 Dave, Why don't you set an example and start a more advanced, practical thread as you would like to see? On the other hand have some patience with the group, WON hardly encourages shorting. Wait until we see bases all over the place and stocks start breaking out one by one. You'll get your stock picks. But in the meanwhile I'd like to see you post your trades as they happen. Dave wrote: >I have noticed alot of philosophical interest. I would like to see more actual >trades. Perhaps this network is geared more to the new investor since the info >seems pretty shallow. Feedback? > >Dave Johan Van Houtven / CLICK! N.V. - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Mike Lucero Subject: [CANSLIM] DOW down 298.66 Date: 04 Aug 1998 13:04:57 -0700 A guy on CNBC predicts rough sledding for the market, so be careful. Mike - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: dbphoenix Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Not directly CS- Having a plan Date: 04 Aug 1998 12:57:20 -0700 (PDT) <> >From a CS standpoint, there's not a whole lot to do until we hit bottom and reach a follow-through day. There's always shorting to discuss and consider, but there hasn't been much interest in the topic. Do you have any thoughts on the subject? --Db _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Nelson E. Timken, Esq." Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] DOW down 298.66 Date: 04 Aug 1998 16:30:59 -0700 How much rougher than this can it get? Nelson ---------- > From: Mike Lucero > To: 'canslim@lists.xmission.com' > Subject: [CANSLIM] DOW down 298.66 > Date: Tuesday, August 04, 1998 1:04 PM > > A guy on CNBC predicts rough sledding for the market, so be careful. > > Mike > > > > - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: musicant@autobahn.org (Dan Musicant) Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] DOW down 298.66 Date: 04 Aug 1998 21:15:25 GMT On Tue, 4 Aug 1998 16:30:59 -0700, you wrote: :How much rougher than this can it get? : :Nelson Are you kidding? You should try to be ready for anything within *reasonable* possibility. To me, that could include up to a 25% drop in the indexes within the next few weeks/months, maybe worse if conditions get worse. Dan : :---------- :> From: Mike Lucero :> To: 'canslim@lists.xmission.com' :> Subject: [CANSLIM] DOW down 298.66 :> Date: Tuesday, August 04, 1998 1:04 PM :>=20 :> A guy on CNBC predicts rough sledding for the market, so be careful. :>=20 :> Mike :>=20 :>=20 :>=20 :> - : : : :- musicant@autobahn.org - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Nelson E. Timken, Esq." Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] DOW down 298.66 Date: 04 Aug 1998 17:53:59 -0400 Do you really think 25% is likely? We have seen 8% so far, 25% more would be a 33% drop. Very unrealistic, in my opinion, although I think a greater correction is certainly possible. How do you suggest we "try to be ready"? Nelson -----Original Message----- [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of Dan Musicant Sent: Tuesday, August 04, 1998 5:15 PM On Tue, 4 Aug 1998 16:30:59 -0700, you wrote: :How much rougher than this can it get? : :Nelson Are you kidding? You should try to be ready for anything within *reasonable* possibility. To me, that could include up to a 25% drop in the indexes within the next few weeks/months, maybe worse if conditions get worse. Dan : :---------- :> From: Mike Lucero :> To: 'canslim@lists.xmission.com' :> Subject: [CANSLIM] DOW down 298.66 :> Date: Tuesday, August 04, 1998 1:04 PM :> :> A guy on CNBC predicts rough sledding for the market, so be careful. :> :> Mike :> :> :> :> - : : : :- musicant@autobahn.org - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: musicant@autobahn.org (Dan Musicant) Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] DOW down 298.66 Date: 04 Aug 1998 22:58:49 GMT Nelson - Read my statement carefully...I assure you I wrote it very carefully. I did not say "likely" or anything like that. I said it was not an unreasonable possibility. How can you get ready? Well, don't be blindsided by the things that happen in life if you can help it. My statement was broad. Now I was evidently a lot less ready last year than this year (knock on wood). For one thing, I'm prepared to short this time around. Good luck one and all. Dan On Tue, 4 Aug 1998 17:53:59 -0400, you wrote: :Do you really think 25% is likely? We have seen 8% so far, 25% more = would be :a 33% drop. Very unrealistic, in my opinion, although I think a greater :correction is certainly possible. : :How do you suggest we "try to be ready"? : :Nelson : :-----Original Message----- :From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com :[mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of Dan Musicant :Sent: Tuesday, August 04, 1998 5:15 PM :To: canslim@lists.xmission.com :Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] DOW down 298.66 : : :On Tue, 4 Aug 1998 16:30:59 -0700, you wrote: : ::How much rougher than this can it get? :: ::Nelson : :Are you kidding? You should try to be ready for anything within :*reasonable* possibility. To me, that could include up to a 25% drop :in the indexes within the next few weeks/months, maybe worse if :conditions get worse. : :Dan :: ::---------- ::> From: Mike Lucero ::> To: 'canslim@lists.xmission.com' ::> Subject: [CANSLIM] DOW down 298.66 ::> Date: Tuesday, August 04, 1998 1:04 PM ::> ::> A guy on CNBC predicts rough sledding for the market, so be careful. ::> ::> Mike ::> ::> ::> ::> - :: :: :: ::- : :musicant@autobahn.org : :- : : : : :- musicant@autobahn.org - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Nelson E. Timken, Esq." Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] DOW down 298.66 Date: 04 Aug 1998 19:42:13 -0400 Dan: I assure you I read your post. And re-read it. It really says very little. I acknowledge that you were careful in saying very little. Saying that 25% is not an "unreasonable possibility" really isn't a statement that can be disputed, since "anything is possible". However, in my opinion, 25% is unlikely, given the 8% discount we have just had. Another 25% would put us around 6000. Is that likely? I doubt it. Is it possible? Sure, "anything is possible". On a serious note, how did you prepare for shorting, and/or what did you do to prepare that you didn't do the last time around. I want to learn. Also, wouldn't it be easier for a novice like myself to put naked puts in a down market than to short? Nelson Nelson -----Original Message----- [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of Dan Musicant Sent: Tuesday, August 04, 1998 6:59 PM Nelson - Read my statement carefully...I assure you I wrote it very carefully. I did not say "likely" or anything like that. I said it was not an unreasonable possibility. How can you get ready? Well, don't be blindsided by the things that happen in life if you can help it. My statement was broad. Now I was evidently a lot less ready last year than this year (knock on wood). For one thing, I'm prepared to short this time around. Good luck one and all. Dan On Tue, 4 Aug 1998 17:53:59 -0400, you wrote: :Do you really think 25% is likely? We have seen 8% so far, 25% more would be :a 33% drop. Very unrealistic, in my opinion, although I think a greater :correction is certainly possible. : :How do you suggest we "try to be ready"? : :Nelson : :-----Original Message----- :From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com :[mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of Dan Musicant :Sent: Tuesday, August 04, 1998 5:15 PM :To: canslim@lists.xmission.com :Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] DOW down 298.66 : : :On Tue, 4 Aug 1998 16:30:59 -0700, you wrote: : ::How much rougher than this can it get? :: ::Nelson : :Are you kidding? You should try to be ready for anything within :*reasonable* possibility. To me, that could include up to a 25% drop :in the indexes within the next few weeks/months, maybe worse if :conditions get worse. : :Dan :: ::---------- ::> From: Mike Lucero ::> To: 'canslim@lists.xmission.com' ::> Subject: [CANSLIM] DOW down 298.66 ::> Date: Tuesday, August 04, 1998 1:04 PM ::> ::> A guy on CNBC predicts rough sledding for the market, so be careful. ::> ::> Mike ::> ::> ::> ::> - :: :: :: ::- : :musicant@autobahn.org : :- : : : : :- musicant@autobahn.org - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: dbphoenix Subject: [CANSLIM] CANSLIM revisions Date: 04 Aug 1998 19:25:08 -0700 (PDT) Some time ago, I offered changes and additions to the CS criteria that I had read, heard, or been told of. Some of these were offered in this week's installment of the CS series in IBD and are quoted below. Note the comments on sales (as well as earnings), annual growth rate, return on equity, and "N". --Db We've found that a company's profitability is one of the most important factors that affect the stock price. This means buying only stocks that show consistent earnings improvement, have improving sales and have either strong profit margins or a high return on equity. From our study of the most successful stocks in the past, coupled with years of experience, we've found that three out of four of the biggest winners were growth stocks with earnings per share in each year of the prior three years up an average of 30% or more before they made their biggest gains. Some initial public offerings, or companies that went public in the last eight or 10 years, may not have three years of earnings growth. In these special cases, I want to see earnings in each of the last six quarters up a material amount (50% to 100% or more) compared to the same quarter the year before. I'm not interested in promises that mediocre earnings will be better in the future. The vast majority of our historical models all had strong, accelerating earnings before their huge price increases occurred. In addition, sales should either be accelerating in the last few quarters or be up 25% or more. I prefer to select companies that are No. 1 in their particular field in terms of sales and earnings growth, profit margins and return on equity. Most of the winners in our study had ROEs of 20% or more. Many were new issues (IPOs). Most also had management ownership. That is, managers owned a certain percent of the stock, giving them a higher stake in the company's performance. The company should have new products or services that are perceived to be superior. You should understand what your company makes or does. _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Patrick Wahl" Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] DOW down 298.66 Date: 04 Aug 1998 21:57:16 -0800 > Do you really think 25% is likely? We have seen 8% so far, 25% more would be > a 33% drop. Very unrealistic, in my opinion, although I think a greater > correction is certainly possible. Actually, not to be a nitpicker, but it would be 31% according to my quick estimate. - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Robert J Knott Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] DOW down 298.66 Date: 05 Aug 1998 06:12:11 -0700 For what it,s worth I was watching a time and sales of DIA (the diamond) alot of 100,s a few 1000,s sells; But some big boys buying 5000 - 100,000. > > - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: musicant@autobahn.org (Dan Musicant) Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] DOW down 298.66 Date: 05 Aug 1998 14:19:02 GMT On Tue, 4 Aug 1998 19:42:13 -0400, you wrote: :Dan: : :I assure you I read your post. And re-read it. It really says very = little. I :acknowledge that you were careful in saying very little. : :Saying that 25% is not an "unreasonable possibility" really isn't a :statement that can be disputed, since "anything is possible". However, = in my :opinion, 25% is unlikely, given the 8% discount we have just had. = Another :25% would put us around 6000. Is that likely? I doubt it. Is it = possible? :Sure, "anything is possible". : :On a serious note, how did you prepare for shorting, and/or what did you= do :to prepare that you didn't do the last time around. I want to learn. = Also, :wouldn't it be easier for a novice like myself to put naked puts in a = down :market than to short? : :Nelson : Hi Nelson, Yes, I did hedge me bets, and that's a consciously acquired skill! If I phrase my statements carefully, I won't be wrong (but I may not be saying much, as you observe!). You finally acknowledge the scope of my statement to include the *anything is possible* type of concept, and that's what my intention was as a retort to your question, little more. I certainly didn't want to put on the cloak of the prognosticator. That's virtually impossible, I think in this situation. Agreed, -25% from here IS unlikely, highly unlikely. Virtually impossible? Well no. I prepared for shorting be doing it a couple of times. I think that's the way to prepare for shorting, pure and simple (if not simplistic...).=20 Preparing *this time around*? Well, I've been paying closer attention to what's going on. For me, it has helped (I think) to watch a 1/2 hour PBS broadcast M-F evenings, Nightly Business Report. It's grating, but I tape it, FF through the ghastly parts. I especially like the spot checks on the major stocks and indexes, economic indicators, breezy and quick analysis. Paul Kangas used to be a broker and has a sense of humour and I've gotten a gestalt from it all. Not for everyone, and I don't like it sometimes, but it's helped me. I've been more select in my stock picking. A lot of issues that I might have bought before I'm not buying now because I've found other stocks that are more apt to perform for me. Stuff like top performing groups, high RS, and maybe a healthy dose of luck. :Also, wouldn't it be easier for a novice like myself to put naked puts = in a down :market than to short? Well, Nelson, I consider myself pretty much a novice too. Not a complete novice of course, but my knowledge is pretty spotty. For example, I know practically nothing about puts and options. Can you describe what a "naked put" is?? Thanks. Good luck to all. Dan musicant@autobahn.org - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Connie Mack Rea Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] How does the world treat Traders? Connie Date: 05 Aug 1998 09:30:04 -0400 --------------4E3F3DCFCDA0B4824ED66771 Content-Type: text/plain; charset=us-ascii Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit TM wrote: > Connie Mack > > I feel as though I am imposing on your privacy since you have not > posted for awhile. If I am breaching a code by this posting, please > accept my appologies. > Morning Tannis-- Please don't think you are imposing. And you need not apologize. > I read somewhere recently that daytraders and long term investors can > make money in this market, but generally not intermediate traders. > > The way I see it, a daytrader would have immediate feedback, while it > may take awhile for the long termer to see results. > Am not sure that I see why a long term investor might make money in this sort of market and that an intermediate trader might not. That a trader can make money in this market, or theoretically in any market, is probably true--especially so if he is a shorter. > If you don't mind sharing your experience, what are you finding now? > Do you use the same OBV/MF price divergence indicators in all markets? > I have only two shorts out and both are quite small positions. Though my 3/7/10EMA and SloSto took me out last week, I did not anticipate the extent of the fall. One of the good things about the EMA is that it takes you out without and need not, and cannot, forecast the extent of the fall. When my EMA gives a buy, I'll return. A trader can make money in this market irrespective that he may not short. In fact, because the EMA does not forecast the degree of the correction, you can err by shorting on every sell. The SAR, which is a fairly complicated indicator is, as far as I know, not explained on any of the sites. It is a short term strategy that always keeps you in the market, either on the short or long side. And I do still rely on OBV/MF as my initial scan criteria. Remember that both are only rough indicators not to be used for getting in and out. > Elder mentions the parabolic trading system. Is the parabolic SAR good > to use in this type of market for daytraders? > > I'm not planning on daytrading anytime soon, but reading your postings > about trading add depth and understanding. > > Tannis > Thank you for the mail. Write anytime. Connie > _________________________________________________________ > DO YOU YAHOO!? > Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com > > - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Chris Reid Subject: [CANSLIM] Date: Wed, 5 Aug 1998 12:11:32 -0400 Date: 05 Aug 1998 10:12:44 -0600 Nasdaq and NYSE up a percent after a dip at the opening Network +3% Internet Products & Services +2% Banks 1.8% Computers/Electronics,Etc +1.5% - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: TM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Kangas Date: 05 Aug 1998 10:08:38 -0700 (PDT) Dan- You'll miss the "chemisry" between Paul and Susie, but save time here. http://www.nightlybusiness.org/comingup.htm Tannis ---Dan Musicant wrote: > > On Tue, 4 Aug 1998 19:42:13 -0400, you wrote: > > :Dan: > : > :I assure you I read your post. And re-read it. It really says very little. I > :acknowledge that you were careful in saying very little. > : > :Saying that 25% is not an "unreasonable possibility" really isn't a > :statement that can be disputed, since "anything is possible". However, in my > :opinion, 25% is unlikely, given the 8% discount we have just had. Another > :25% would put us around 6000. Is that likely? I doubt it. Is it possible? > :Sure, "anything is possible". > : > :On a serious note, how did you prepare for shorting, and/or what did you do > :to prepare that you didn't do the last time around. I want to learn. Also, > :wouldn't it be easier for a novice like myself to put naked puts in a down > :market than to short? > : > :Nelson > : > > Hi Nelson, > > Yes, I did hedge me bets, and that's a consciously acquired skill! If > I phrase my statements carefully, I won't be wrong (but I may not be > saying much, as you observe!). You finally acknowledge the scope of my > statement to include the *anything is possible* type of concept, and > that's what my intention was as a retort to your question, little > more. I certainly didn't want to put on the cloak of the > prognosticator. That's virtually impossible, I think in this > situation. Agreed, -25% from here IS unlikely, highly unlikely. > Virtually impossible? Well no. > > I prepared for shorting be doing it a couple of times. I think that's > the way to prepare for shorting, pure and simple (if not > simplistic...). > > Preparing *this time around*? Well, I've been paying closer attention > to what's going on. For me, it has helped (I think) to watch a 1/2 > hour PBS broadcast M-F evenings, Nightly Business Report. It's > grating, but I tape it, FF through the ghastly parts. I especially > like the spot checks on the major stocks and indexes, economic > indicators, breezy and quick analysis. Paul Kangas used to be a broker > and has a sense of humour and I've gotten a gestalt from it all. Not > for everyone, and I don't like it sometimes, but it's helped me. > > I've been more select in my stock picking. A lot of issues that I > might have bought before I'm not buying now because I've found other > stocks that are more apt to perform for me. Stuff like top performing > groups, high RS, and maybe a healthy dose of luck. > > :Also, wouldn't it be easier for a novice like myself to put naked puts in a down > :market than to short? > > Well, Nelson, I consider myself pretty much a novice too. Not a > complete novice of course, but my knowledge is pretty spotty. For > example, I know practically nothing about puts and options. Can you > describe what a "naked put" is?? Thanks. > > Good luck to all. > > Dan > musicant@autobahn.org > > - > > _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: TM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Date: Wed, 5 Aug 1998 12:11:32 -0400 Date: 05 Aug 1998 10:16:03 -0700 (PDT) Thanks, Chris. In today's IBD it is reported that yesterday- 194 of 197 industry groups were down. The exceptions: Electrical Connectors, up 5%, Metal Ores-Gold/Silver up 1.7%, Mining gems, 0% change. Only IBD market sector index up: Gold index 2.06% Networks down 2.1 % yesterday, already up more than that according to your data. Internet down 1.5% yesterday, so it is already in the black today. Banks were down 5%, you have them at 1.8%. TM ---Chris Reid wrote: > > Nasdaq and NYSE up a percent after a dip at the opening > Network +3% > Internet Products & Services +2% > Banks 1.8% > Computers/Electronics,Etc +1.5% > > > > > - > > _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Connie Mack Rea Subject: [CANSLIM] Connie Mack Date: 05 Aug 1998 13:20:44 -0400 Members-- Though I have not posted in a couple of months, I have not ignored the several who still correspond privately and have not forgotten the many others. Dave's post yesterday about the emphasis on market philosophy (and psychology) and the shallowness of the talk prompted me to say what I have been saying in private correspondence. Those whom I speak with I have advised to be, at minimum, half in cash, and I have suggested that one ought to be 75 to 100% in cash. Their position is so because they have been letting technical indicators do the talking. Most of us have a mind fairly well integrated on one side, the side we attend to in everyday life, but fragmented on the other side, the side that trades and invests. No case is trivial for those having stayed the market too long, and even the trivial case can result in agony; but the internal conflict on the fragmented side is always confusing and, in the case of investing, sinister as well as confusing for the investor. DB is smart enough, but doesn't know enough. His talk is academic, philosophical, and psychological; it is much more puffery than practical. One can talk "M" and proceed on through the table of contents of O'Neill's work, but ultimately--from what posts I have seen--no one thoroughly understands "M" (or "N," "O," "P," or "Q"). Did I not see DB say recently to "wait for the bottom" and look for an "exhaustion" day? That is of little consolation to the investor who is probably down 25% already. Perhaps his broker or his accountant will credit those academic, philosophic, and psychological musings onto the right side of your ledger. If "M" is not a technical calculation, it is a tardy calculation. It is most like the infamous and ephemeral value. I note that members are reading technical books. Ought this reading not seem a bit ironical amidst the circumscription of "M"? DB has suggested a shorting thread. Does not shorting, too, shed light on what is ironical? Shorting is primarily a trader's delight, a technical delight. To suggest that strictly CS investors would even tempt themselves to shorting is unthinkable. Shorting and the technician are inseparable; shorting is the last thing a trader learns the intricacies of. Too, where is that CS purity so much advocated? Others who have been more eclectic toward the market were disparaged for their impurity. These impure ones whom I mentioned before--those who felt as if they were not welcome--are awaiting DB's "bottom" and "exhaustion" day. But they are awaiting in varying and favorable ratios of cash and equity. And it will their technical indicators that will tell them the opportune moment of entry. That which differentiates between a man who is smart enough and a man who is smart enough and also knows enough is some like the difference between knowledge and wisdom. The man who is both smart and knowing may dispense with supports on which other minds rely. The smart man, on the other hand, dispenses with nothing; he details the academically and philosophically innocuous, and footnotes them so that he may not appear as a solitary believer. Reflection on the market can not get to work unless some unevenness exists for it to get a purchase on. What kind of gnomic purity dictates that one never divulges what he is doing in his own account? What perverse theories of obligation and sanctity permit him to withhold his own prospective trades? I do not wish to see a man moving through the site like an afreet weighted down with an epidermis of books and footnotes, each with an affidavit confirming he is a legitimate investor or trader. Until I know that a man trades at least one $100,000 account, I consider his reluctance to tell me of his stocks in prospect and stocks that he "will" buy with the same indifference as I do my cat who won't tell me how he catches mice. Is this man not a Guildenstern who knows the pipes but cannot pluck out the heart of the mystery? All the hoary sterile talk about "M," philosophy, and psychology are mostly examples of semantic viscosity that are pretty sounding but are a sure fire way to reduce capital and shun profits in a correcting market. The electrifying market of the last few days can make your hair stand up like a 400 volt inquisitive cat that has just changed polarity. Do not mistake my comment as a repudication of CS; take it rather as a comment on the assumption that CS needs a complementary strategy to consistently conserve capital and make money. If you think that having come upon CS is a presumptive fact and good fortune, you will press your arrival for more than it's worth. You may think your arrival both miracle and sacrament; but you are about to be efficiently and assuredly separated from your money and will have to work doubly hard to recover. E.g., if your $50 stock goes to $25, you have lost 50%. But to recover you will have to see the stock rise 100%. When I get an SOS from a member, I don't consider it germane to ask in what language it is expressed. But it is germane to ask under what circumstances and with what principles he has progressed to his crisis. Some members have sent out an SOS and have been told to watch for the bottom and an exhaustion day, which is a knock-off of the pis aller to keep your head down and your butt covered. This advice should taboo every member, for you have not been told the truth. Members might infer themselves in this metaphor: Not every tree would be worse off to find itself a Stradivarius or just a banjo. But the tree might be angered to find itself a cardboard box or a toothpick. Respectfully, Connie Mack - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: mckeener@ix.netcom.com Subject: [CANSLIM] Re: Trendlines and Moving Averages, FWIF--Non-CANSLIM--Skip If Uninterested Date: 05 Aug 1998 13:08:11 -0500 (CDT) Db, <> O'k, I'll bite. Why are you dating the long-term trendline in the industrials and NYSE from 2 years ago? I looked at Big Charts, timeframe a decade, and the bullish trendline was moving forward then. Is there something I'm missing here? I think the industrials will probably continue their upward momentum (after this temporary short fall having hit the 200d), because the long-term (10 year??) trendline is very much alive and fundamentals are still solid - low interest rates, good earnings and...? BUT, the MACD and oscillator, Stochastics, yearly, monthly and weekly are down, as well as the 3-line EMA. As a result, I say we need to wait for a few (3 to 5) days of up movement on high volume. Where would I get symbols for Dow Transports and other sectors? Couldn't find these to check their charts. Thanks. <> The NASDAQ chart pattern doesn't appear too different from the industrials. I wouldn't be surprised to see it hit its 200d on its down short/term momentum. As with the INDU, the daily, weekly and monthly MACD and Stochastics are pointing down, so again, time now to wait for sustaining rally of 3 to 5 days on above-average volume. Asia continues to trouble us and Clinton's unsteady position causes uncertainty which the market just doesn't like. Mary - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: mckeener@ix.netcom.com Subject: [CANSLIM] Re: Not directly CS - Having a plan Date: 05 Aug 1998 13:41:30 -0500 (CDT) Kim, >>Having a plan has helped me control my emotions and made me more disciplined. It someone would of forced me to place a bet on the market a week ago I would of bet on a stronger rally attempt. However I lived by theplan. It did seem the market was kept me from having any knee jerk reactions to any of this.>> I'm still working on mine. It's CANSLIM, what else!! Sounds simple, but it isn't. So many factors affect the individual within the market, as Db so well expressed. Stick with it, Kim, it relieves pressure and holds back those emotions that constantly want to thwart your design. <> Good analogy. That's where stop losses protect your capital so you can continue trading. Also, knowing where you want to be under various conditions - volume, global and U.S. market, etc. Mary - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Rich Mau" Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] Re: Trendlines and Moving Averages, FWIF--Non-CANSLIM--Skip If Uninterested Date: 05 Aug 1998 11:46:07 -0700 > Where would I get symbols for Dow Transports and other sectors? > Couldn't find these to check their charts. Thanks. If one enters a name that Big Charts doesn't recognize as a symbol, Big Charts will respond with a list of possible matches. Thus if one enters "DOW JONES", one will get a list of the symbols for the Dow Jones indexes that Big Charts carries. Rich - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: dbphoenix Subject: [CANSLIM] How to Spot the Bottom Date: 05 Aug 1998 10:24:27 -0700 (PDT) The following is copied from Briefing.com with permission. While one man's confirmation is another man's noise (cf. "sentiment" and "moving averages"), I do think that it's helpful to maintain a sense of the "gestalt" (as noted earlier) of the market. Doing so helps one to avoid becoming wedded to a scenario and to avoid seeing every blip up as an imminent recovery and every blip down as an imminent collapse. Hope you find this informative and useful. --Db Updated 04-Aug-98 How to Spot the Bottom Forecasting at what point the market will reverse course and resume its advance is nothing more than guess work. That's not to say that many of the guesses you've heard or read aren't educated ones, but the fact remains no one knows at what level the indices will bottom out. However, there are a number of indicators worth monitoring for signs that a bottom is just around the corner. Today, we profile those indicators. Mutual Fund Cash Mutual fund cash levels bottomed in April, with only 4.3% of assets held in cash. There are a few analysts who discount this old reliable indicator, noting that while the percentage is low in real terms, given the increase in total assets under management there remains plenty of cash on hand to sustain the underlying bull market. Though there is some merit to this argument, it is important to note that 1997 was another year of record inflows into stock mutual funds. Throughout all of last year, mutual fund cash levels averaged 5.7%, with the lowest monthly reading of 5.1% occurring in December. For a little historical reference, for the 15-yr period of 1979-1994, the percentage of assets held in cash dipped below 8.0% only once. So far this year, we've seen only one month - January - above 5.0%. The average over the six months of available data is an historically low 4.7%. Yes, there is more money under management. But the abnormally low percentage of cash holdings tells us two things. One, managers were very optimistic (through June). Two, portfolio managers are more likely to raise cash levels than lower them. Given current market conditions, managers will be slow to put new cash to work. They might even take some profits off the table to bolster cash reserves. The result of these actions will be a rise in mutual fund cash positions. A move back to the 5.3%-5.5% area would be a strong signal that the indices were positioned for a sustained recovery. Investor Intelligence Indicator Like mutual fund cash, the investor intelligence figures reflect market sentiment. And like mutual fund cash, it is a contrary indicator. In other words, when the figures exhibit strong bullish tendencies the market is probably due for a pullback. In April (again) of this year, the percentage of bearish investment advisors fell to 22.6% - a five year low. Meanwhile, the percentage of bullish advisors now totals 52.5% - just a few points off its 5-yr high of 56%, and comfortably above the generally accepted overbought level of 50%. As the correction unfolds and the speculative excess wears off, the percentage of bullish and bearish investment advisors will move back toward more normal levels. Buy signals will be generated when the percentage of bullish advisors drifts back to the mid- to low-40% area and/or the percentage of bears jumps back to the low- to mid-30% range. Advance/Decline Line Much has been written and talked about concerning the downward trend in the a/d line for the S&P 500. Most alarming has been the divergence between the breadth indicator and the average. Whereas the S&P charged to a new high in July, the a/d line has trended steadily lower since peaking in April (this month just keeps coming up). With market paying so much attention to this indicator, sentiment will improve greatly at first sign that indicator is reversing course. Given that many of the second and third tier names are already down significantly from their 52-wk highs, a recovery in this group shouldn't be too far off. Two straight weeks of positive numbers (in the weekly a/d line) with a strong bullish bias should confirm bottom. L/T Moving Averages Another indicator which has worked well in calling both intermediate-term tops and bottoms has been the convergence/divergence of the 50- and 200-day moving averages. In May (by definition a moving average lags the market) the divergences between the 50- and 200-day moving averages for the major market indices grew abnormally and unsustainably wide. The last time the divergences were this wide was back in August of last year - about two months before the October decline. In so doing, the moving averages, like the other indicators noted above, flashed a warning signal that a top was forthcoming. Sure enough, the indices set nominal new highs a couple months later before embarking on the current correction. Unfortunately, it will take time and/or a prolonged period of sideways to slightly lower prices before the moving averages converge to a buying point. In the DJIA, for example, this indicator won't flash a buy signal until the spread between the moving averages narrows to about 200-150 points. _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: musicant@autobahn.org (Dan Musicant) Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Kangas Date: 05 Aug 1998 20:30:57 GMT On Wed, 5 Aug 1998 10:08:38 -0700 (PDT), you wrote: :Dan- :You'll miss the "chemisry" between Paul and Susie, but save time here. : http://www.nightlybusiness.org/comingup.htm : :Tannis Thanks, Tannis. They're always touting their "WWW site", but I never checked it. In my software, just double clicking on the URL you provided took me there. I'll check it out. Dan musicant@autobahn.org - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: dbphoenix Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Re: Trendlines and Moving Averages--Mary Date: 05 Aug 1998 15:41:40 -0700 (PDT) <> The angle of ascent. "Long term" has no limit, unlike short or intermediate-term. It could be up to a century or more. But practically speaking, you look at changes in angle of ascent. For example, if you start your trendline at the end of 1990, you'll intersect the vertical axis at a lower point than if you only go back to the end of '94, at which point the angle of ascent changed. It changed again in '96. You'll hear market technicians on CNBC or wherever talk about the next level of support. When referring to trendlines, they mean that as you go back in time, the angles used to draw the lines are different. They are also longer, which supposedly makes them stronger and more important, just as the activity on weekly charts supposedly has more influence than that on daily charts (ditto with monthly and weekly). You're correct about the long-long term. If we break 8400, that doesn't mean we go to zero. It means only that we go to the next level of support at 8200 (or as Abby Joseph-Cohen said, 8100-8300). And then on from there. The strength of each level depends in part on how many lines converge there. What makes 8400 fairly important is that the trendline I mentioned and the 200d converge there. Breaking support, on the other hand, doesn't necessarily mean that it's all over. We broke the 200d MA on the Dow pretty severely last October, but the average climbed above it again within a few days and, with a rocky start, moved on from there in February. <> You came within a hair of it. But don't be surprised if any rally up runs into a few potholes. There are going to be people eager to sell, particularly if they bought in too late. There are also going to be daytraders who'll take quick profits on the way up or who try to play the swings up and down. And there may be fund managers who haven't been doing very well and don't want to do worse. There are all kinds of people out there, buying and selling for all sorts of reasons. And then there are the programs. And the hedge funds. Etc. Etc. --Db _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Chris Reid Subject: [CANSLIM] Date: Wed, 5 Aug 1998 22:33:28 -0400 Date: 05 Aug 1998 20:34:37 -0600 Mentioned a long time ago I was working on some stock software, well I = still am, but the other day I started on a quick little app. Don't know = if it will be useful (should be done soon, although I have to finish = finals first). It takes the top 100 stocks (according to Value Line = Investment Survey)every week and lets sort through them by weighting. Eg "Hey program, give me the stocks who correspond to these weightings: = RS 30/100 EPS 20/100 PE 10/100 eps chng 40/100". Basically you assign = a number out of a hundred to a given attribute of a stock. The program = will spit out the top stocks based on those weightings. It will also = tell you what the weighting combinations were for the top ten stocks of = that week (lets you see the statistics behind the winners). Free for everyone if they want (email me privately as to not fill the list with unessentials)=20 At the End of the today Groups That Are sig. Up Networking + 3.35% Department Store 2.48% Household Products + 1.83% Personal Products +1.62% Groups that are sig. Down Drilling marine supply 3% Oilfield Equip. 2.7 Internet Service Providers 2.6 Electronic comp. And parts 2.5 And on and on Markets and Indexs (%) Nasdaq +.14 Dow +.7 S&P + .86 Russell 2k -.73 Nyse +.48 Amex -1 - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "John Adair, M.D." Subject: [CANSLIM] woodard's page Date: 05 Aug 1998 21:39:24 -0500 can anyone tell me how to find Ian Woodard's page. I cant seem to find his on wallstret city. - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: dbphoenix Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] woodard's page Date: 05 Aug 1998 19:43:13 -0700 (PDT) http://sosadvisors.com/ianshome.htm --Db _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Patrick Wahl" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Re: Trendlines and Moving Averages--Mary Date: 05 Aug 1998 21:59:13 -0800 Date sent: Wed, 5 Aug 1998 15:41:40 -0700 (PDT) > You came within a hair of it. But don't be surprised if any rally up > runs into a few potholes. There are going to be people eager to sell, > particularly if they bought in too late. There are also going to be > daytraders who'll take quick profits on the way up or who try to play > the swings up and down. And there may be fund managers who haven't > been doing very well and don't want to do worse. There are all kinds > of people out there, buying and selling for all sorts of reasons. And > then there are the programs. And the hedge funds. Etc. Etc. And if I may use a dirty word here, the fundamentals may be headed the wrong way. I think what precipitated everything is the realization (finally, what took everyone so long?) that earnings are not going to meet the rosy forecast made in January for year over year gains. There were forecasts for something like 14% earnings gains this year, now scaled back considerably. When you have stocks like PFE with a pe of 50, GE at 35, etc., an earnings slow down has to put a dent in some of these valuations. A technical note - the charts of most of the smaller stocks I have been following have been severely damaged, and it will take a couple of months for any substantial bases to form. It may be slim pickings for a while in small cap land. - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Ari Lawson Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Connie Mack selling short Date: 06 Aug 1998 09:18:58 -0400 Connie, Selling short is not anti-CANSLIM. HTMMIS,pgs.108-110. ARI - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Nelson E. Timken, Esq." Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] DOW down 298.66 Date: 06 Aug 1998 12:19:59 -0700 Naked means you don't own the underlying security, just the option. Nelson ---------- On Tue, 4 Aug 1998 19:42:13 -0400, you wrote: :Dan: : :I assure you I read your post. And re-read it. It really says very little. I :acknowledge that you were careful in saying very little. : :Saying that 25% is not an "unreasonable possibility" really isn't a :statement that can be disputed, since "anything is possible". However, in my :opinion, 25% is unlikely, given the 8% discount we have just had. Another :25% would put us around 6000. Is that likely? I doubt it. Is it possible? :Sure, "anything is possible". : :On a serious note, how did you prepare for shorting, and/or what did you do :to prepare that you didn't do the last time around. I want to learn. Also, :wouldn't it be easier for a novice like myself to put naked puts in a down :market than to short? : :Nelson : Hi Nelson, Yes, I did hedge me bets, and that's a consciously acquired skill! If I phrase my statements carefully, I won't be wrong (but I may not be saying much, as you observe!). You finally acknowledge the scope of my statement to include the *anything is possible* type of concept, and that's what my intention was as a retort to your question, little more. I certainly didn't want to put on the cloak of the prognosticator. That's virtually impossible, I think in this situation. Agreed, -25% from here IS unlikely, highly unlikely. Virtually impossible? Well no. I prepared for shorting be doing it a couple of times. I think that's the way to prepare for shorting, pure and simple (if not simplistic...). Preparing *this time around*? Well, I've been paying closer attention to what's going on. For me, it has helped (I think) to watch a 1/2 hour PBS broadcast M-F evenings, Nightly Business Report. It's grating, but I tape it, FF through the ghastly parts. I especially like the spot checks on the major stocks and indexes, economic indicators, breezy and quick analysis. Paul Kangas used to be a broker and has a sense of humour and I've gotten a gestalt from it all. Not for everyone, and I don't like it sometimes, but it's helped me. I've been more select in my stock picking. A lot of issues that I might have bought before I'm not buying now because I've found other stocks that are more apt to perform for me. Stuff like top performing groups, high RS, and maybe a healthy dose of luck. :Also, wouldn't it be easier for a novice like myself to put naked puts in a down :market than to short? Well, Nelson, I consider myself pretty much a novice too. Not a complete novice of course, but my knowledge is pretty spotty. For example, I know practically nothing about puts and options. Can you describe what a "naked put" is?? Thanks. Good luck to all. Dan musicant@autobahn.org - ---------- - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Walter Stock" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Connie Mack selling short Date: 06 Aug 1998 13:11:58 PDT > Connie, > Selling short is not anti-CANSLIM. HTMMIS,pgs.108-110. > ARI Ari, Selling short IS anti-canslim except in bear markets. O'Neil says " therefore, my first rule is don't sell anything short during a bull market. Why fight the general tide? .... Save the short selling for bear markets." (HTTMIS, 2nd ed., page 113) Walter Stock Oakville, ONT - Canada - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: dbphoenix Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] selling short Date: 06 Aug 1998 10:23:40 -0700 (PDT) <> Depends on how you define "bear" and "market", Walter. The RUT has declined 20% since April. A number of sectors and groups have been in their own "bear markets" for months. The market as a whole hasn't followed the usual bull/bear cycle for years but has instead adopted a pattern of sector rotation, meaning that it's possible to be both short and long at the same time. One would not have had to fight the general tide in order to short drillers and field services at the beginning of the year. In fact, the general tide had absolutely no effect on the sector at all. --Db _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Dan Cash Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] How does the world treat Traders? Connie Date: 06 Aug 1998 10:28:10 -0700 I am pleased to see you post again. I have missed your willingness to share, on a daily basis, with all of us, your process. Your methodology of entry and exit seems complimentary and basic to any philosophy of investing. And not being a purist to any dogma, I seem to be able to incorporate your approach, as I am trying to understand it, into my behavior. And then there is the side benefit of appreciating your creative use of the English Language!! Connie Mack Rea wrote: I have only two shorts out and both are quite small positions. Though my > 3/7/10EMA and SloSto took me out last week, I did not anticipate the > extent of the fall. One of the good things about the EMA is that it takes > you out without and need not, and cannot, forecast the extent of the > fall. When my EMA gives a buy, I'll return. Is your statement " When my EMA gives a buy, I'll return." referring only to individual issues or are you also referring to indices? > > > > > A trader can make money in this market irrespective that he may not > short. In fact, because the EMA does not forecast the degree of the > correction, you can err by shorting on every sell. Same question. Connotes indices. - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Walter Stock" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] selling short Date: 06 Aug 1998 14:08:40 PDT > Depends on how you define "bear" and "market", Walter. The RUT has > declined 20% since April. A number of sectors and groups have been in > their own "bear markets" for months. The market as a whole hasn't > followed the usual bull/bear cycle for years but has instead adopted = a > pattern of sector rotation, meaning that it's possible to be both > short and long at the same time. One would not have had to fight the > general tide in order to short drillers and field services at the > beginning of the year. In fact, the general tide had absolutely no > effect on the sector at all. > --Db Db, Won't argue that the RUT is in rough shape (in fact the index is in negative territory compared to January). Similarly, no argument about the drillers (was long Diamond Offshore last year till November, and have stayed well clear since). Instead, I am playing devil's advocate and simply quoting O'Neil, and his comments on the market as a whole. Is some of it a little outdated? Would I like to play with WONDA??? I personally think that we should be using all of the tools at hand, and shorting is one of them (for those that have the ability and confidence). You may remember that I was one of the members of the list supporting a thread on shorting. Shorting is harder (unless you are participating in our dumpy little market north of the border). We need edification. Hmmm... innocent question : are you and Connie in agreement on the value of the short side? in this market and others? :-) Walter Oakville, ONT - Canada - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Chris Reid Subject: [CANSLIM] Date: Thu, 6 Aug 1998 14:14:41 -0400 Date: 06 Aug 1998 12:16:14 -0600 The last two days have been quite kind to the technology sector = (emerging leader when this all settles?). All it's sub groups are up = nicely for the day and most were up yesterday. Don't have the time now = to search for individual stocks in these groups, but I'm open to = suggestions. Semiconductors way down today, -14% so far, but they were = the laggards in the last run up so it doesn't surprise me. Technology +1.51% .Computer Peripherals +3.78% .Computers+1.14% .Internet Products & Services+3.86% .Networking+0.67% .Software & Services+1.82% - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Ari Lawson Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] selling short Date: 06 Aug 1998 14:29:13 -0400 dbphoenix wrote: > < > Selling short IS anti-canslim except in bear markets. > > O'Neil says " therefore, my first rule is don't sell anything > short during a bull market. Why fight the general tide? > .... Save the short selling for bear markets." > > (HTTMIS, 2nd ed., page 113) > > Walter Stock > Oakville, ONT - Canada>> > > Depends on how you define "bear" and "market", Walter. The RUT has > declined 20% since April. A number of sectors and groups have been in > their own "bear markets" for months. The market as a whole hasn't > followed the usual bull/bear cycle for years but has instead adopted a > pattern of sector rotation, meaning that it's possible to be both > short and long at the same time. One would not have had to fight the > general tide in order to short drillers and field services at the > beginning of the year. In fact, the general tide had absolutely no > effect on the sector at all. > > --Db > > _________________________________________________________ > DO YOU YAHOO!? > Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com > > - I assumed that went without saying. Ari - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Johan Van Houtven Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Date: Thu, 6 Aug 1998 14:14:41 -0400 Date: 06 Aug 1998 20:31:11 +0200 At 12:16 PM 06-08-98 -0600, you wrote: >Semiconductors way down today, -14% so far, but they were the >laggards in the last run up so it doesn't surprise me. Don't know what you are looking at, but the SOX is up +10.4 points as of= now. The semi's I'm daytrading are all up: AMAT 35=A07/16 +1=A03/8 NVLS 41=A01/8 +3=A05/16 TER 22=A013/16 +1=A013/16 KLAC 29=A03/4 +2=A0 INTC 86=A03/4 +2=A05/8 Where did you get the -14% from. Johan Van Houtven / CLICK! N.V. - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: dbphoenix Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] selling short Date: 06 Aug 1998 11:41:19 -0700 (PDT) <> It's not exactly outdated, but plenty of people have noted that this is not a typical bull market. As you know, bull markets begin with certain industries taking their turn in the spotlight. As these rise and then subside, other industries have their turn. Autos, paper, chemicals, housing, technology groups of one sort or another, etc., etc., all have their turn until the last frothy, speculative stage, at which point inflation returns, interest rates rise, and we start all over again (and yes, this is all over-simplified). This time, however, inflation has stayed low and so have interest rates. We haven't had a recession since 1990. So the market has split into various sectors, each of which have gone through their own cycles--in some cases, as with chips, several times. Thus, though "the market" continues to rise, there are generally at least a few groups and/or sectors which are on the decline. And, as others have noted, this continuing rise is at least in part due to the money bubble which continues to work its way through the economy and which provides extraordinary liquidity to the market. None of this was foreseen in either of the HTMMIS editions. I'm hoping O'N addresses at least some of it in his new series. <> I agree. Craig's post was an excellent start. I get the impression, though, that those who are interested in the subject are looking primarily to learn how to do it as opposed to sharing ideas for shorts. And learning how to short takes more than a few posts. I suggest that anyone who's interested in shorting spend at least as much time studying the process as they did studying how to invest on the long side. <> I have no idea. I haven't read his posts on the topic. Whether shorting has value depends on one's financial goals, how much time he has to spend in front of the computer, what tools he has available to him, how much time and effort he's willing to put in to studying the techniques and learning the tools, etc. I suspect most people would rather just take the break and wait until long opportunities present themselves again. That's certainly the HGS attitude, and, to a large extent, it's the CS attitude as well. One must also consider that with the ascendancy of mutual funds and giant brokerage houses, investing on either the long or short side isn't what it used to be. The potential power of large buy and sell programs has to be taken into account, particularly when one of those buy programs might be used to squeeze short-sellers and try to prevent their driving down the market to the point where individual investors might be tempted to step up their share redemptions. But that's what makes all of this so much fun :) --Db _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Walter Stock" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Connie Mack - Non-Canslim - Purists ignore Date: 06 Aug 1998 14:59:06 PDT CONNIE ! Very happy to see a post from you. I miss your technical analysis, and your comments on the action in particular stocks. I also miss your colorful literary allusions. I only hope that any "Guildensterns" on our list don't wind up with the same fate. Speaking of Shakespeare, are you returning as Banquo or Macduff? >> This advice should taboo every member, for you have not been told the >> truth. >> >> Members might infer themselves in this metaphor: Not every tree would = be >> worse off to find itself a Stradivarius or just a banjo. But the tree >> might be angered to find itself a cardboard box or a toothpick. >> >> Respectfully, >> >> Connie Mack Trees to matchsticks might be a metaphor for some. In this market Connie, we need all the "truth" and help that we can get, especially from experienced traders such as yourself. Your analysis can complement Canslim. I can't speak for others on the list, but I've got the welcome mat out. Walter Stock Oakville, ONT - Canada e-mail: wstock@globalserve.net - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "William Couch" Subject: [CANSLIM] canslim-digest V2 #350 - I'm out of the office Date: 06 Aug 1998 10:58:40 -0600 I am out of the office until August 24. If you need immediate assistance, = please contact Dan Herrmann or Kevin Dick. Bill - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: TM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Date: Thu, 6 Aug 1998 14:14:41 -0400 Date: 06 Aug 1998 13:25:48 -0700 (PDT) Way to go, Johan! I've been watching SOXX for days and haven't known what to do. I have many questions. How did you know to daytrade these? How did you assess the risk? Is that why you are trading so many, to spread the risk/opportunity? What and when did you do it? How will you know when to get out? Anthing else I need to know? Tannis ---Johan Van Houtven wrote: > > At 12:16 PM 06-08-98 -0600, you wrote: > >Semiconductors way down today, -14% so far, but they were the > >laggards in the last run up so it doesn't surprise me. > > Don't know what you are looking at, but the SOX is up +10.4 points as of now. > > The semi's I'm daytrading are all up: > > AMAT 35 7/16 +1 3/8 > NVLS 41 1/8 +3 5/16 > TER 22 13/16 +1 13/16 > KLAC 29 3/4 +2  > INTC 86 3/4 +2 5/8 > > Where did you get the -14% from. > > > > Johan Van Houtven / CLICK! N.V. > > > > > - > > _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Johan Van Houtven Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Date: Thu, 6 Aug 1998 14:14:41 -0400 Date: 06 Aug 1998 23:56:27 +0200 Tannis, First of all I should note that the following has nothing to do with CANSLIM. Now that we have that out of the way, I'll try to answer your questions: First I'll explain how I daytrade and what tools are necessary for what I am doing: Tools: 1) Real-time, streaming, i.e. continually updating quotes. With T&S list in spreadsheet form and real-time charting. I use Interquote. ( http://www.interquote.com/ ) 2) Charting program. Nothing fancy necessary (but it sure would help). I use the charting program that comes with Quotes Plus V2 and Daily Graphs Online. 3) 10 day intraday charts at: http://www.tscn.com/wsc/Corporate_Snapshot.html?Button=3D10D&TSym=3DKLAC This link might not work for everyone, because when you access this link it looks for "cookies" on your harddisk. Try going through http://www.tscn.com/ and navigate your way to the charts. Fill in a stock symbol. Then click on the 10-day chart. 4) A graphics snapping program like Hyper Snap DX (http://www.hyperionics.com/ ) so that you can cut out the 10-D intraday chart and other intraday charts and paste it into a paint program like PaintShop Pro, so that you can draw trendlines. Method: Preparation. Make that P_R_E_P_A_R_A_T_I_O_N. If your are not prepared, don't trade. 1) Which stocks am I going to trade? If I want to be long, I select stocks which seem to have relatively little downward compared to upward potential. I never short while daytrading as I my technique requires that I get my shares FAST when I want them. I've noticed that getting the number of shares I want to short takes much to long, so I don't short. (If I lived in the States, I'd solve this "problem" by phoning my broker and ask him to have the shares available for shorting.) So how to select those stocks? Depends on the current state of the market. What is in favor now? Super gorrila stocks. Look at the Nasdaq 100, NDX, for example. Held up much better than other indices. Traded LU most of the time, the last 2 weeks. Do you want to trade in a group that has just recently, like in the last 2 weeks, been trashed. No. Too much overhead. So we look for a group that is out of favour, but is showing some strenght/potential. I look for a group that has had its fierce downward draft and is now in a basing period. We are talking months of downward draft and months of basing. The group must also have potential (i.e. a HGS, high growth stocks, group). Scan them all, you come across the semiconductor groups. Look at the individual stocks in the group(s) and pick those that have decend fundamentals, and trade at least a few hundred thousand shares a day. The more the better. (Not always, but I won't go into that now.) 2) After you have selected the potential stocks. Draw the trendlines and note the support/resistance areas. I use multi-year, 1 year, 3 months and 1 month charts. Keep the best looking stocks. How to pick? What is best? Those that are close to major support areas like mid- and long term trendlines, 50MA's etc. This is a topic in and of itself. 3) Look at the 10-day intraday charts of the selected stocks. Pick those that look best. I only need 1 or 2 to trade. The others I will keep an eye on in Interquote together with an index (if available). Gives you an idea of what the group is doing. 4) Input the stocks you'll trade and the ones you will watch in Interquote. Also have indexes like the DJIA, NASDAQ, SPX, NDX and others you deem important in your quote screen. I also input the ADV(30): av daily vol during last 30 days. 5) During the trading day I while cut out the 10-day intraday and 1-day intraday charts and draw trendlines on them and mark support/resistance area's. If I see a potential trade (see preparation stage) comming up I watch the real-time T&S list closely. This is probably the most crucial part of the kind of trading I do. You have to get a feel for the momentum of the trading. I can see and feel the trades comming in. Others out there are watching the same thing it seems. I have my BUY order ready, I just have to press "GO" and the order is off to my broker. Then I check the order status.=20 Maybe it is important to note that I never buy less that 1000 shares. That is the absolute minimum to make the kind of daytrading I do worthwhile. I already know where I'm going to sell of course. This is often 0.5$ to 1$ higher. Near a resitance area or resistance trendline. I watch the T&S closely. Have my sell order ready. Often have 2 or 3 possible sell orders perpared, so I can select the price I can get quickly. We are often talking minutes, seldom more than a few hours. Can you make money consistenly? I do. (Did 96 of these intraday trades this year. Only 3 that failed. Yes, I know that sounds highly improbable.) Much harder for me to write it all down than to do. Probably left out quite a number of things that I will think of when I post this reply. Some things are to hard to describe in words, like the intraday patterns that have a high chance of succes, the RT analysis of the T&S list, where you visually filter out the 100, 200, 300 shares etc. trades. Only look at 1000 shares and up. Unless you are in an exception situation like when there is a panic sell-off and the "hundies" sell in panic (while MMs, whom often are expert technicians, are having fun) keep your ammo ready to buy big. Etc, etc. I'm afraid that this is the best I can do to explain it in words. It most probably is something you would want to see, so you can ask questions as things occur. If you are ever in Belgium, I'll be glad to show you. Have fun, Johan At 01:25 PM 06-08-98 -0700, you wrote: > >Way to go, Johan! > >I've been watching SOXX for days and haven't known what to do. =20 >I have many questions. > >How did you know to daytrade these? How did you assess the risk? Is >that why you are trading so many, to spread the risk/opportunity? =20 >What and when did you do it? How will you know when to get out?=20 >Anthing else I need to know?=20 > >Tannis > > > >---Johan Van Houtven wrote: >> >> At 12:16 PM 06-08-98 -0600, you wrote: >> >Semiconductors way down today, -14% so far, but they were the >> >laggards in the last run up so it doesn't surprise me. >>=20 >> Don't know what you are looking at, but the SOX is up +10.4 points >as of now. >>=20 >> The semi's I'm daytrading are all up: >>=20 >> AMAT 35=A07/16 +1=A03/8 >> NVLS 41=A01/8 +3=A05/16 >> TER 22=A013/16 +1=A013/16 >> KLAC 29=A03/4 +2=A0 >> INTC 86=A03/4 +2=A05/8 >>=20 >> Where did you get the -14% from. >>=20 >>=20 >>=20 >> Johan Van Houtven / CLICK! N.V. >>=20 >>=20 >>=20 >>=20 >> - >>=20 >>=20 > >_________________________________________________________ >DO YOU YAHOO!? >Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com > > >- > > Johan Van Houtven / CLICK! N.V. - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] DOW down 298.66 Date: 06 Aug 1998 20:34:03 -0400 "naked" always means you have sold the option (thus don't own the option position) without an offsetting equity position. Examples: you sold calls (sold the right to someone else to purchase stock from you at a fixed price) without already owning the stock that may have to be delivered you sold puts (sold to someone else the right to "put", or sell, stock to you at a fixed price without already having a short position in that stock. If you buy puts or calls, without having a position in the underlying stock, then your options position is a long position. Tom W -----Original Message----- >Naked means you don't own the underlying security, just the option. > >Nelson > - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] DOW down 298.66 Date: 07 Aug 1998 00:33:57 EDT Nice to get some quality post on this list after a while. Welcome back Tom. In a message dated 98-08-06 20:37:31 EDT, you write: << Subj: Re: [CANSLIM] DOW down 298.66 Date: 98-08-06 20:37:31 EDT From: stkguru@netside.net (Tom Worley) Sender: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com Reply-to: canslim@lists.xmission.com To: canslim@lists.xmission.com "naked" always means you have sold the option (thus don't own the option position) without an offsetting equity position. Examples: you sold calls (sold the right to someone else to purchase stock from you at a fixed price) without already owning the stock that may have to be delivered you sold puts (sold to someone else the right to "put", or sell, stock to you at a fixed price without already having a short position in that stock. If you buy puts or calls, without having a position in the underlying stock, then your options position is a long position. Tom W -----Original Message----- From: Nelson E. Timken, Esq. To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Date: Thursday, August 06, 1998 1:03 PM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] DOW down 298.66 >Naked means you don't own the underlying security, just the option. > >Nelson > - ----------------------- Headers -------------------------------- Return-Path: Received: from relay19.mx.aol.com (relay19.mail.aol.com [172.31.106.65]) by air05.mail.aol.com (v47.2) with SMTP; Thu, 06 Aug 1998 20:37:31 -0400 Received: from lists.xmission.com (lists.xmission.com [198.60.22.7]) by relay19.mx.aol.com (8.8.8/8.8.5/AOL-4.0.0) with SMTP id UAA05861; Thu, 6 Aug 1998 20:37:18 -0400 (EDT) Received: from domo by lists.xmission.com with local (Exim 1.82 #1) id 0z4aVp-0003P9-00; Thu, 6 Aug 1998 18:36:05 -0600 Received: from (netside.net) [205.159.140.2] (root) by lists.xmission.com with esmtp (Exim 1.82 #1) id 0z4aVm-0003Ok-00; Thu, 6 Aug 1998 18:36:02 -0600 Received: from txw (stkguru@sunny.netside.net [205.159.140.2]) by netside.net (8.8.8/8.7.3) with SMTP id UAA22716 for ; Thu, 6 Aug 1998 20:37:10 -0400 (EDT) From: "Tom Worley" To: Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] DOW down 298.66 Date: Thu, 6 Aug 1998 20:34:03 -0400 Message-ID: <01bdc19b$13dbb760$0f02000a@txw> MIME-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit X-Priority: 3 X-MSMail-Priority: Normal X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 4.71.1712.3 X-MimeOLE: Produced By Microsoft MimeOLE V4.71.1712.3 Sender: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com Precedence: bulk Reply-To: canslim@lists.xmission.com X-No-Archive: yes >> - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Dan Cash Subject: [CANSLIM] A groaner Date: 06 Aug 1998 23:04:50 -0700 Once upon a time there was a little yellow toad crying in the forest. The Good Witch came along and asked the little yellow toad, "Why are you crying, my friend?" The little yellow toad said, "All my friends are green and I'm yellow. I want to be green like all my friends...sniff, sniff." The Good Witch replied, "No problem!" And she tapped the little yellow toad with her magic wand and the little yellow toad turned green...all except his private parts, which remained yellow. "Oh no!!" exclaimed the little toad, "I can't go through life all green except for my private parts! You have to make me green all over!" The Good Witch said, "Sorry, I don't do private parts. You will have to go see the Wizard!" So, off the little toad went to see the Wizard. The Good Witch continued on into the forest where she came upon a little brown squirrel crying very hard. "Why are you crying, little brown squirrel?" the Good Witch asked. "Because," said the little brown squirrel, "all my friends are red and I want to be red, too...sniff, sniff." "No problem!" said the Good Witch. And she tapped the little brown squirrel and turned him red... all except his private parts, which remained brown. "Oh, no!!" exclaimed the little squirrel, "I can't go through life all red except my private parts! You have to make me red all over!" But the Good Witch said, "Sorry, I don't do private parts. You will have to go see the Wizard!" But the little squirrel started crying harder and said, "But I'm new around here! I don't know the Wizard! How will I find him??" And the Good Witch said, "Oh, that's easy! Just follow the yellow prick toad...." - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] A groaner Date: 07 Aug 1998 02:29:33 EDT Not an appropriate post! - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Dan Cash Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] A groaner Date: 06 Aug 1998 23:34:19 -0700 Sorry, inadvertently included in canslim TrdStation@aol.com wrote: > Not an appropriate post! > > - > - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: dbphoenix Subject: [CANSLIM] Non-CANSLIM--Purists Please Skip Date: 07 Aug 1998 05:51:08 -0700 (PDT) Since the group has decided to re-embrace daytrading, perhaps thoseamong us who consider themselves to be intermediate to long-term value players might enjoy a discussion of bottom-fishing. While purists will prefer to buy high and sell higher, value players will prefer to stake their claims a bit earlier. I'm sure the importance of Wednesday hasn't been missed by anyone. Some traders called it a selling climax, while others bemoaned the fact that--to them--there was not yet enough fear on the floor. Tuesday is the first day of O'N's window, so we'll just have to see. This go-round at least, all the major averages except for the RUT reached their 200d or a major trendline at about the same time, which makes counting easier. A retest shouldn't come as a big surprise, but intermediate to LT investors probably won't care one way or the other. But whether the bottom for this particular leg has been reached or not, the chip, chip equipment, and, possibly, disc drive stocks look as though they may be ready to rejoin the party. KLAC has been behaving particularly well, and APM also bears watching. Keep in mind that stocks such as these will be held not for a couple of days, but several months or more. --Db _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Johan Van Houtven Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Non-CANSLIM--Purists Please Skip Date: 07 Aug 1998 16:31:20 +0200 >Since the group has decided Not nice of you (800+) guys to hold a meeting and not at least inform me about it. >to re-embrace daytrading, perhaps >those among us who consider themselves to be intermediate to long-term >value players might enjoy a discussion of bottom-fishing. Time for Jeff to rename the group? We now have CANSLIM, daytrading and value-ortiended trading and investing. But I'm quite sure we will go back to CANSLIM mostly, when we get a new buy signal. The count has started. All-though I'm not holding my breath, as a "W" formation with a least a retest is the most probable scenario IMO. >But whether the bottom for this particular leg has been reached or >not, the chip, chip equipment, and, possibly, disc drive stocks look >as though they may be ready to rejoin the party. I agree. SOX almost up 8% today. >KLAC has been >behaving particularly well, and APM also bears watching. Keep in mind >that stocks such as these will be held not for a couple of days, but >several months or more. I'll make a bold MID to LONG term prediction: Semi's will do better that diskdrives. Diskdrives are almost a commodity, low margin business. In the short term DDs will probably also do well, as they are oversold. -- Johan Van Houtven - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: dbphoenix Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Non-CANSLIM--Purists Please Skip Date: 07 Aug 1998 07:41:46 -0700 (PDT) <