From: canslim-owner@xmission.com To: canslim-digest@xmission.com Subject: canslim Digest V1 #68 Reply-To: canslim@xmission.com Errors-To: canslim-owner@xmission.com Precedence: canslim Digest Saturday, 1 February 1997 Volume 01 : Number 068 In this issue: Re: [CANSLIM] Re: Introduction [CANSLIM] D.R. Horton Looks Good To Me Re: [CANSLIM] D.R. Horton Looks Good To Me Re: [CANSLIM] couple of mundane questions [CANSLIM]Scan stocks for certain criteria Re: [CANSLIM] D.R. Horton Looks Good To Me Re: [CANSLIM] D.R. Horton Looks Good To Me [CANSLIM] Scan stocks for certain criteria [CANSLIM] Scan stocks for certain criteria Re: [CANSLIM] Scan stocks for certain criteria Re: [CANSLIM] D.R. Horton Looks Good To Me [CANSLIM] Daily Graphs Re: [CANSLIM] D.R. Horton Looks Good To Me [CANSLIM] moving averages Re: [CANSLIM] D.R. Horton Looks Good To Me Re: [CANSLIM] moving averages Re: [CANSLIM] D.R. Horton Looks Good To Me Re: [CANSLIM] Not CANSLIM - "What Works on Wall Street" [CANSLIM] Pivot Points See the end of the digest for information on subscribing to the canslim or canslim-digest mailing lists and on how to retrieve back issues. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "tom worley" Date: Sat, 1 Feb 1997 06:36:29 -0500 Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Re: Introduction Thanks, Mike. In case you missed it, effective Jan 1, 1997 the spousal acct can put $2000/yr into an IRA (old limit was $250). Also glad to hear you and your wife will be a "team" on investing. Just last week I was threatened with a $10,000 "extortion" by the wife of a former client (he traded with me for five years, but hasn't been a client for nearly three). Apparently they are in the process of divorce and she JUST found out he lost money with me. So of course I am the one to blame even tho her anger is more over his lack of trust and honesty with her. So goes thinking that 1997 had to be better than 1996. At least it reminds me of the advantages of no longer having clients, just frustrating to have been a broker for over seven years without a single complaint, then have this come along years after I get out of the business. Enough negative, glad you at least saved O'Neill's book, saved you the cost of a new one. Your experience in commodities is not unusual (unless you are the gov's wife). At least you kept your committment limited, and learned the lesson. tom w - ---------- > From: Mike Artobello > To: canslim@xmission.com > Subject: [CANSLIM] Re: Introduction > Date: Saturday, February 01, 1997 3:57 AM > > using Canslim. I just open a spousal IRA at Lombard for my wife this > > About 3 years ago I tried my hand at the commodities markets. I > studied the markets and traded for about 2 years. I had a small > account, about $5000, and had to quit after several losing trades. I > learned alot in those 2 years, but it cost me alot too. During that > time I had a subscription to IBD and received O'Neil's book, although > I didn't read it at that time. I finally brushed off the dust and > read it last month and wished I had 3 years ago. Oh well, live and > learn. > trying to teach my wife so we can work together and keep each other > honest. > ------------------------------ From: "Michael R. Jeffers" Date: Sat, 1 Feb 97 09:30:09 PST Subject: [CANSLIM] D.R. Horton Looks Good To Me I got the tip for Lawrence Savings Bank from the Group, so I will try and return the favor with this CANSLIM candidate. D.R. Horton (DHI on the NYSE) builds family houses on the east coast. The stock price just hit a new high of $13 on Wednesday, and then retreated 50% or so to $11.875 during the next two days. There was a price gap upwards when the new high was hit, with big volume increase as well. It is true that the stock opened at $13 on Wends., but closed lower. I also don't know which industry group it fits in IBD, but here are the numbers I found via our friend the 'Net: (C)urrent Quarterly EPS Growth - 26% this Quarter, 21% the Quarter before. (A)nnual EPS Growth Rate - 33% (N)ew Stuff - New Price High of $13. Closed deal to buy Torrey builders, the largest home builder in Atlanta, and 55th largest in the USA. Cost to DHI was $112 million. Torrey's last year revenues were $191 million. (S)upply / Demand - 11.7 million shares (L)eader or Laggard - RSI of 71 as of today (I)nstitutional Sponsorship Rank - B as of IBD Jan 29 issue (M)arket Indicators - I think its going down soon, but I've thought that for several months now. No rational reason for that belief. I would assume that the Industry group IBD would give this stock is the Building - Residential / Commercial. If that is correct, then it's current IBD industry group rank is 155, which is pretty crappy. However, I see a pretty good 30 cup formation on the stock. I don't own the stock yet, but I have placed an order to buy at Market as soon as the market opens on Monday. I think this will be a good buy now for the short and long term. What do you think? Just Little 'Ole Me, Michael R. Jeffers ------------------------------ From: Johan Van Houtven Date: Sat, 01 Feb 1997 20:41:48 +0100 Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] D.R. Horton Looks Good To Me Michael wrote: >I don't own the stock yet, but I have placed an order to buy at >Market as soon as the market opens on Monday. Why not make it a limit order? Or are you will to buy it at any price? ------------------------------ From: GreatBird@leonardo.net (Gina Black) Date: Sat, 1 Feb 1997 12:13:47 -0800 Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] couple of mundane questions At 5:23 PM 1/31/97, Zoran Mitrovski wrote: .2. What day of the week are the DG's guaranteed to be at my door? . Do they come with the mail, or there is a special service . that delivers them? I just got my first set from my Trial subscription. They arrived sometime this morning (Saturday) hand-delivered to my mailbox! (But that could be because I'm in LA. I also get my IBD the night before, so my Monday arrived today as well). Quite fascinating. gina - ------------------------------------ GreatBird@leonardo.net http://members.aol.com/greatbird - ------------------------------------ ------------------------------ From: Johan Van Houtven Date: Sat, 01 Feb 1997 21:23:23 +0100 Subject: [CANSLIM]Scan stocks for certain criteria Just found a great web page at: http://www.techcharts.com/scan.html It lets you put in certain criteria to scan a stock database like: Today's close is at least x % than yesterday's close Today's range (high - low) is at least x % than normal Today's volume is at least x % than normal Today's close is between x and y Etc, etc. You get to fill in the x and y's above. ------------------------------ From: Frank Kroger Date: Sat, 1 Feb 1997 12:31:15 -0800 (PST) Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] D.R. Horton Looks Good To Me On Sat, 1 Feb 1997, Johan Van Houtven wrote: > Michael wrote: > > >I don't own the stock yet, but I have placed an order to buy at > >Market as soon as the market opens on Monday. > > Why not make it a limit order? Or are you will to buy it at any price? Very good advice. Gap-ups at the open, especially on Mondays are for the most part caused by retail buyers placing market orders during the weekend. Most of the time the gap-up will sell down before the stock rises again. Money can be made by shorting a gap. It is difficult to use puts to profit from the destruction of a gap-up because options generally take 15-20 minutes to open and by then it is too late. For the same reason it is difficult to use calls, purchased the day before, to profit from a gap-up at the open. Remember, there are exceptions to every rule. Frank *Frank Kroger, fkroger@halcyon.com, (volunteer) Seattle WA US ** World Neighbors: Strengthening the capacity of *** marginalized communities to meet their basic needs. **** "LOCAL PEOPLE ARE THE EXPERTS" http://www.halcyon.com/fkroger/wn.html ------------------------------ From: "tom worley" Date: Sat, 1 Feb 1997 15:12:58 -0500 Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] D.R. Horton Looks Good To Me A "M" type comment on the group: Feds delayed until Tues, I think, the latest report on new home construction due to a corrupted file in the database that had to be fixed. Lately, if memory serves me right, this report and other related ones have been showing home sales (new, used) and home construction to be ahead of expectation. Some of this is undoubtedly interest related, when perception is that rates will fall, sales fall off as people try to grab the "bottom" of the rates. When perception is that rates are going to go up (and that is certainly a current fear, as well as recent actuality) then they rush to lock in rates and close deals. This could help the group's overall ranking. BTW, good CANSLIM presentation, good example for all on concise review with appropriate nrs. tom w - ---------- > From: Michael R. Jeffers > To: canslim@xmission.com > Subject: [CANSLIM] D.R. Horton Looks Good To Me > Date: Saturday, February 01, 1997 12:30 PM > > D.R. Horton (DHI on the NYSE) builds family houses on the east > coast. The stock price just hit a new high of $13 on Wednesday, and then ------------------------------ From: Johan Van Houtven Date: Sat, 01 Feb 1997 21:38:00 +0100 Subject: [CANSLIM] Scan stocks for certain criteria Tried the following: Today's close is at least 10 % than yesterday's close Today's volume is at least % than normal MACD crosses it's 9-day signal Momentum is POSITIVE And it came up with the following list: BUS, HCIA, JDAS, MXIM,SMTG BUS: Greyhound lines a good CANSLIM stock IMO. There is a BUS discussion thread at: http://talk.techstocks.com/~wsapi/investor/Subject-7402 HCIA, JDAS, and SMTG (biotech one product co) all have charts that do not interest me. MXIM looks like a good co. There is a MXIM discussion thread at: http://talk.techstocks.com/~wsapi/investor/Subject-2649 Of course ------------------------------ From: Johan Van Houtven Date: Sat, 01 Feb 1997 21:44:47 +0100 Subject: [CANSLIM] Scan stocks for certain criteria Sorry, disregard previous post. I accidently mailed it before it was completed. Tried the following: Today's close is at least 10 % than yesterday's close Today's volume is at least % than normal MACD crosses it's 9-day signal Momentum is POSITIVE And it came up with the following list: BUS, HCIA, JDAS, MXIM,SMTG BUS: Greyhound lines a good CANSLIM stock IMO. There is a BUS discussion thread at: http://talk.techstocks.com/~wsapi/investor/Subject-7402 HCIA, JDAS, and SMTG (biotech one product co) all have charts that do not interest me. MXIM looks like a good co. There is a MXIM discussion thread at: http://talk.techstocks.com/~wsapi/investor/Subject-2649 Of course both BUS and MXIM are detected after the breakout so it might not be the time to buy them. BUS is haveing a second breakout after the cup and handle breakout. MXIM is having the first breakout after the cup and handle formation. (Both are mini handles.) Anyone have a suggestion for a good set of scanning parameters to detect good stocks before the breakout? ------------------------------ From: "tom worley" Date: Sat, 1 Feb 1997 15:34:15 -0500 Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Scan stocks for certain criteria weekly or bi-weekly review of DGs. O'Neill's got a good computer, I would rather let him do the first scan and narrow the field down for me, then look at the charts for patterns, then study the nrs and my finances. tom w - ---------- > From: Johan Van Houtven > To: canslim@xmission.com > Subject: [CANSLIM] Scan stocks for certain criteria > Date: Saturday, February 01, 1997 3:44 PM > > Anyone have a suggestion for a good set of scanning parameters to detect > good stocks before the breakout? > ------------------------------ From: Craig Griffin Date: Sat, 1 Feb 1997 17:18:03 -0500 Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] D.R. Horton Looks Good To Me Michael, Nice analysis, IMHO. Unfortunately, my last NYSE DG is from 01/03/97 and I couldn't find it in there. Although I am sure that it is in this week's based on the breakout Friday. I did look at the chart both weekly and daily. It's a pretty chart. I make the pivot at 11 3/8 (top of handle) + 1/8 = 11 1/2. So the buying range would be (11.5 * 1.10) 11 1/2 to 12 5/8. Wish I had a DG with it in there to take a look. Anybody know the 5yr earnings history and the comparisons from the last 4 qtrs? Good luck and thanks for the post! Best regards, Craig PS. Here is the latest earnings news from Yahoo. Sounds like they are good at expanding their margins. ARLINGTON, Texas, Jan. 21 /PRNewswire/ -- D.R. Horton, Inc. (NYSE: DHI) today reported a 26 percent increase in earnings for the first quarter of fiscal 1997, over the same quarter in the prior year. Net income for the first quarter ended Dec. 31, 1996 was $6.8 million, ($0.21 per share), compared to $5.4 million, ($0.19 per share), for the same quarter of fiscal 1996. Revenues for the quarter increased 19 percent to $144.4 million (855 homes closed), from $121.1 million (731 homes closed) for the same quarter of fiscal 1996. As previously reported, new sales contracts for the quarter increased 12 percent over the same period of fiscal 1996. New sales contracts for the first quarter of fiscal 1997 totaled $129.8 million (751 homes), compared to $115.4 million (699 homes) for the same quarter of fiscal 1996. The company's backlog of homes under contract at Dec. 31, 1996 increased 35 percent to $223.5 million (1,208 homes) from $165.0 million (968 homes) at Dec. 31, 1995. Donald R. Horton, chairman and president, said, "D.R. Horton, Inc. continued its history of earnings growing faster than revenues. We are pleased that our 40 basis point gross margin improvement helped the company's pretax income increase 52 basis points over the same period of fiscal 1996. D.R. Horton continues its history of outstanding new sales, revenues and earnings performance, as evidenced by the earnings increase in the first quarter and our record first quarter ending sales backlog." D.R. Horton, Inc. is engaged in the construction and sale of high-quality, single-family homes with custom features designed principally for the entry- level and move-up markets. The company currently builds and sells homes in 21 states and 26 markets with a geographic presence in the Midwest, Mid- Atlantic, Southeast, Southwest and Western regions of the United States. D.R. HORTON, INC. Consolidated Statements Of Income (Unaudited) Three Months Ended Dec. 31, 1996 1995 (In thousands, except net income per share) Revenues $144,381 $121,068 Cost of Sales 118,036 99,535 Gross Profit 26,345 21,533 Selling, General & Administrative Expense 15,117 12,513 Operating Income 11,228 9,020 Other Income 715 374 Interest Expense (784) (669) Income Before Income Taxes 11,159 8,725 Income Taxes 4,352 3,310 Net Income $ 6,807 $ 5,415 Net Income per Share $ 0.21 $ 0.19 Average Number of Common Shares 33,003 28,250 SOURCE D.R. Horton, Inc. ------------------------------ From: "Mike Artobello" Date: Sat, 1 Feb 1997 14:47:58 -0800 Subject: [CANSLIM] Daily Graphs I keep hearing about Daily Graphs, can someone explain what this service is, how often it's published, who publishes it, and how to use it to screen Canslim stocks? Does it include all stocks or just a those with Canslim potential? I'd appreciate all the details anyone can provide. I'd also like to know what methods others are using to screen Canslim stocks, especially any automated methods, like screening software or web sites. Regards, Mike - ----------------------------------------------------------- Mike Artobello marto@ccnet.com http://www.ccnet.com/~marto/ - ----------------------------------------------------------- ------------------------------ From: "Michael R. Jeffers" Date: Sat, 1 Feb 97 16:52:21 PST Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] D.R. Horton Looks Good To Me At 12:31 PM 2/1/97 -0800, you wrote: >>On Sat, 1 Feb 1997, Johan Van Houtven wrote: >>Why not make it a limit order? Or are you will to buy it at any price? > >Very good advice. Gap-ups at the open, especially on Mondays are for the >most part caused by retail buyers placing market orders during the >weekend. Most of the time the gap-up will sell down before the stock rises >again. > >Money can be made by shorting a gap. Well Johan and Frank, I get nervous. I live on the West Coast and my work starts at 6:30 am each day. Since that is when the market opens, I don't have time to cancel limit orders if I still want the stock but the limit price isn't going to make it. I figure that if the stock IS a great pick, I won't care if I lose a few bucks in the purchase price. Case in point: I will buy using Waterhouse normal price of $31.50 even though I could wait until Monday, get a access number from them, and use the internet site to buy for only $12. My goal is 25% increase in every stock I buy in less than four months. I just need to constantly work on one word in my goal and make sure that the increase doesn't change to decrease, as it often does. (smile) Just Little 'Ole Me, Michael R. Jeffers ------------------------------ From: pwahl@postoffice.worldnet.att.net Date: Sat, 1 Feb 1997 18:27:13 -0800 Subject: [CANSLIM] moving averages Since a few days ago Craig Griffin was mentioning the idea of buying a stock off of a 10 day moving average, I thought the following might be of interest. (apologies if I have mentioned it here before) When a strongly trending stock (or future, see March Soybeans for current example) touches its 20 day exponential moving average, the trade is to buy the stock if it goes back above the high of the bar where it first touched the moving average. I guess the trick is to define when a stock is in a strong trend. The inventors of this trade say to use the ADX indicator and only buy off the 20 day XMA when the ADX is above 30. They (Raschke/Connors) also say that there is not necessarily a correct length for the moving average, which makes sense. Different lengths give more or fewer signals, depends on how aggresive a trader a person is. I plotted the 20 day XMA on the last year or so of Intel, and if you had followed this trade, you would have gone long in late October at 107. Not too bad. The protective stop is under whichever bar is the near term low, since the stock can trade around the 20 XMA for several days before recovering. ------------------------------ From: Zoran Mitrovski Date: Sat, 1 Feb 1997 22:51:11 -0500 (EST) Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] D.R. Horton Looks Good To Me Michael wrote: > My goal is 25% increase in every stock I buy in less than four > months. I just need to constantly work on one word in my goal and make sure > that the increase doesn't change to decrease, as it often does. (smile) Michael, I am curious as to how you came up with the "25%" and the "less than four" months. And what do you do if that goal is not achieved? What is the basis and the meaning of that goal anyway? Can you please explain some more? Cheers, Zoran ------------------------------ From: Craig Griffin Date: Sat, 1 Feb 1997 23:51:28 -0500 Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] moving averages Patrick, This is a neat concept. Never heard such an scientific description of the concept. Thank you very much for taking the time to post it! After careful reading, there is still one concept or term that I don't understand. You wrote: >(snip) >The protective stop is under whichever bar is the >near term low, since the stock can trade around the 20 XMA for >several days before recovering. How does one determine the "near term low"? Thanks again. Best regards, Craig ------------------------------ From: "Michael R. Jeffers" Date: Sat, 1 Feb 97 21:37:56 PST Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] D.R. Horton Looks Good To Me At 10:51 PM 2/1/97 -0500, you wrote: > >Michael wrote: > >> My goal is 25% increase in every stock I buy in less than four >> months. I just need to constantly work on one word in my goal and make sure >> that the increase doesn't change to decrease, as it often does. (smile) > >Michael, I am curious as to how you came up with the "25%" and the >"less than four" months. And what do you do if that goal is not >achieved? What is the basis and the meaning of that goal anyway? >Can you please explain some more? > Zoran The Answer Is Simple, Greed! No, the real reason is twofold. First, Professor O'Neil says to take 20% profits when you have them. The problem for me is that since my trades are still rather small ($1,200 to $2,000) the commission costs eat up a bit of that 20% profit. So I like to adjust the target up 5% more to cover the commission expense. I feel that for a target to truly be useful, it should not be easily obtained. The second reason is the examples O'Neil shows in the "Wide and Loose Price Structures Are Failure Prone" section of the book. Both the charts for New England Nuclear and Houston Oil show the dramatic price rise lasting around 2 - 3 months. I figure that 3 months plus a month more for insurance is enough time for a stock pick to show itself. That is the time for strong re-evaluation. I'm not saying that I buy and wait for 4 months before looking at it again. But after 4 months each stock gets an even closer look than the normal daily check. A new set of earnings has come out sometime during that period, and the picture should be different than when I originally bought in. If the stock reaches my goal, I review to the company to see if I want to buy more, hold, or sell. If I buy more or hold, the 4 month / 25% profit clock begins anew. It's just a little thing I do to give myself some guidelines. An investor without guidelines is like a ship without a rudder, or a bird without a song, and like a leaf without a butterfly. (Please don't ask me to explain the last sentence. My medication just kicked in. [smile]) Just Little 'Ole Me, Michael R. Jeffers ------------------------------ From: Craig Griffin Date: Sun, 2 Feb 1997 00:58:01 -0500 Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Not CANSLIM - "What Works on Wall Street" Jonathan, You wrote, >... Note also that O'Shaughnessy has been on CNBC frequently as >a guest and basically says the same thing. Yep, saw him there Friday. He picked GATE and CPU as two current stocks that fit his model. GATE is a CANSLIM type stock which continues to do well. So there are intersection points between the two investment styles (some stocks fall into both categories). Best regards, Craig ------------------------------ From: Craig Griffin Date: Sun, 2 Feb 1997 00:57:58 -0500 Subject: [CANSLIM] Pivot Points Jim, You wrote: >Craig, could you please restate for me what are the typical pivot points in >the CANSLIM chart? I assume from this post that the top of the handle is >one. What about the lowest part of the handle before it starts up again? > I'll do my best. The pivot point in my mind is the point at which a stock is said to have "broken out". The pivot point is therefore literally the old high for the stock (1/8 past that point it will have broken out to a new high). Given a stock that forms a base between 24 and 18. The stock may touch 24 or 23 1/2 or whatever at several times during the base. But the literal pivot point is the old high of 24. Given that, there are a number of subtleties, which affect the pivot. The basic idea (IMHO) of those subtleties is that the real pivot point is the point at which 99% of the overhead resistance has been overcome. Therefore, given a FLAT BASE, and a stock that trades at $24 the day the base begins, and then bases for 2 months between the prices of $18 and $23 1/2, never again exceeding 23 1/2 in the base, but touching 23 1/2 several times. Then I would say that the pivot is 23 1/2, rather than 24 and get a possible earlier entry on a breakout. But remember, for the breakout to be valid, it also needs to be exhibiting strong volume that is likely to exceed 150% of average daily volume by the time the day is out. When the stock given above is trading at 23 3/4 on 15% of ADV at 10:00am, you can be pretty sure and go for it. But on low volume or normal volume at the same price and time, you may want to pause and reflect. A recent example of a flat base is MCAF. After looking at all of the intraday highs going back to the beginning of the base (10/15/96), I would say the pivot is $52. You might say the pivot is $51.75. Someone else might say it is $52.625. We would all be "correct enough". See if you can see why all three are valid answers for this particular chart (and for extra credit see why my answer of $52 is best :^), just kidding). Given a CUP WITH HANDLE BASE, the pivot point is at the top of the handle (which will normally be even with or slightly below the rim of the cup, but sometimes it is slightly above. Take the cup w/handle on DHI, for example: the stock peaked back on 02/07/96 at $12, this is the left rim of the cup. It then formed this long cup stretching until 12/18/96 with a high of 11.25, this is the right rim of the cup, but also the "top of the handle". The handle then began forming and drooping down until 1/21/97 with a low of 10.125. At that point the price began "climbing back up the handle". Some Canslimmers will chance a buy on a stock (which has already had earnings released as this one did, "halfway up the handle"). For DHI the handle drooped from 11.25 down to 10.125. Therefore, once the price had climbed back to 10.50 or so, you could CHANCE a buy in a strong market - but it is not "pure" Canslim. I digress, sorry, the pivot point is at 11.25 the top of the handle, not 12.00 the left rim of the cup. Once it breaks through 11.25 with 150% of ADV as it did Friday, you've got a breakout. It seems that in some regards "pivot point" is a bad term, because pivot seems to imply the point at which the turn comes (such is at the bottom of the handle), when in fact it refers to the point at which overhead resistance is broken (such as at a new high, or a near new high). Hope this helps. Best regards, Craig PS. One added note re: handles. The handle must form in the top 20% or less of the cup. If a handle forms midway up the cup, for example, it is a weak formation and failure prone. You like to see the handle form starting from a nice high point in the right side of the cup. Then you like to see it drooping down 5% or less (deep drooping is not good - see for example RSYS on Friday - sometimes these work out, but for RSYS it was disaster - also an example of the risk one takes buying half way up the handle before earnings are out). When you get this nice droop, you also like to see the volume "dry up" in the handle. Meaning progressive days or progressive weeks with a steady reduction of volume. In the case of DHI, the volume dry up was not obvious to me, but that's ok, just not ideal. Very few of them have all of the ideal characteristics. But the closer to ideal, the better (the higher the chance of success). ------------------------------ End of canslim Digest V1 #68 **************************** To subscribe to canslim Digest, send the command: subscribe canslim-digest in the body of a message to "majordomo@xmission.com". If you want to subscribe something other than the account the mail is coming from, such as a local redistribution list, then append that address to the "subscribe" command; for example, to subscribe "local-canslim": subscribe canslim-digest local-canslim@your.domain.net A non-digest (direct mail) version of this list is also available; to subscribe to that instead, replace all instances of "canslim-digest" in the commands above with "canslim". 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