From: canslim-owner@xmission.com To: canslim-digest@xmission.com Subject: canslim Digest V1 #79 Reply-To: canslim@xmission.com Errors-To: canslim-owner@xmission.com Precedence: canslim Digest Thursday, 13 February 1997 Volume 01 : Number 079 In this issue: Re: [CANSLIM] How to get quote? Re: [CANSLIM] Advancing Industry groups Re: [CANSLIM] Novice DG evaluation; opinions on charting welcome in DG Feb 7. Re: [CANSLIM] Mental Stops vs Actual Stops Re: [CANSLIM] (no subject) Re: [CANSLIM] canslim buy Re: [CANSLIM] Trend Reversal - NEW MARKET RALLY? [CANSLIM] Charts from DG Re: [CANSLIM] Charts from DG Re: [CANSLIM] Mental Stops vs Actual Stops Re: [CANSLIM] Mental Stops vs Actual Stops Re: [CANSLIM] Mental Stops vs Actual Stops Re: [CANSLIM] canslim buy Re: [CANSLIM] Advancing Industry groups [CANSLIM] Re: Market Comments 2/12/97 Re: [CANSLIM] Charts from DG Re: [CANSLIM] Mental Stops vs Actual Stops [CANSLIM] Stock manipulation Re: [CANSLIM] Re: Market Comments 2/12/97 Re: [CANSLIM] Re: Market Comments 2/12/97 See the end of the digest for information on subscribing to the canslim or canslim-digest mailing lists and on how to retrieve back issues. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "tom worley" Date: Wed, 12 Feb 1997 20:37:39 -0500 Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] How to get quote? Charles, what you have is a form of a preferred stock on ITT Hartford. Probably quoted on NASDAQ, will email you a symbol tomorrow after I look it up at work. I wouldn't worry about checking the price very often, it is an income instrument that won't vary much in price (barring someone buying out ITT Hartford well over its current price). tom w - ---------- > From: Charles A. Wilmot > To: canslim@xmission.com > Subject: [CANSLIM] How to get quote? > Date: Wednesday, February 12, 1997 8:46 AM > > I have X shares of the following which shows on my monthly brokerage > statement as: "ITT HARTFORD CAP 7.70% 'QUIPS', Symbol HIG PRQ". The > closing price, as of 01/31/97, was $24.375. Is there any way I can get a > daily quote here on the Internet without having to call my broker for same? > Charles A. Wilmot > cwilmot@azstarnet.com ------------------------------ From: "tom worley" Date: Wed, 12 Feb 1997 20:42:56 -0500 Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Advancing Industry groups could cost you your beta card, Johan! After today, tho, may see a lot of tech groups beating your criteria, least I hope so. tom w - ---------- > From: Johan Van Houtven > To: canslim@xmission.com > Subject: [CANSLIM] Advancing Industry groups > Date: Wednesday, February 12, 1997 9:28 AM > > Everything on the site is copyrighted, so I hope I'm note violating the > copyright. ------------------------------ From: "tom worley" Date: Wed, 12 Feb 1997 20:40:24 -0500 Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Novice DG evaluation; opinions on charting welcome in DG Feb 7. Another good example of how insider buying (or selling) can be both misinterpreted and misleading. tom w - ---------- > From: Brian Nash > To: 'canslim@xmission.com' > Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] Novice DG evaluation; opinions on charting welcome in DG Feb 7. > Date: Wednesday, February 12, 1997 9:03 AM > > According to Bob Gabele's internet site, 4 RYO insiders have purchased a > total of 86,000 shares in the open market (not exercise and hold), at > prices in the 3.50 - 5.13 range over the past 8 months. They aren't > doing so well right now, as the stock bounces around $3. > I use insider > >buy/sells carefully and in the context of what the stock is doing. > >First most companies place restrictions on their insiders as to when > >they can sell, this is in addition to existing restrictions on filing > >and quantity they can sell. Second, many are selling by exercising > >options that would otherwise expire. Since they will have to pay the > >taxes on those profits whether they sell or not just because they > >exercised the option, they sell to have the money for the tax > >collector. If a stock is performing very well, that is an appropriate > >time for insiders to sell, the stock is in demand, the price is good, > >don't get greedy. Insider sells when a stock is trending down is a > >negative, but again the timing may be forced on them. Just because a > >stock is showing an "E" timeliness does not mean it has bottomed, > >it's at the bottom and the bottom can be very deep, allowing it to > >sink further. > ------------------------------ From: "tom worley" Date: Wed, 12 Feb 1997 20:49:07 -0500 Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Mental Stops vs Actual Stops I have long held that stops are a useful tool and can be as tight or as loose as you are comfortable with. Your ability to judge the market, and time to monitor it during the day, will have a bearing. If you are using a broker, then his judgement and professionalism is also a factor. Your investment goals and intended holding period also play into the equation. I personally tend not to use stops because I am wired into the market with real time info, but I will use limit minders on my computer at work to both remind me of a critical price level as well as to alert me to what's going on since I am often so busy that I don't know what the mkt is doing/done until 6 or 7 that night. - ---------- > From: Mike Artobello > To: canslim@xmission.com > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Mental Stops vs Actual Stops > Date: Wednesday, February 12, 1997 9:46 AM > > I'm interested in this comment as well. Is it better to have a > mental stop or an actual stop? ------------------------------ From: "tom worley" Date: Wed, 12 Feb 1997 20:51:58 -0500 Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] (no subject) Like all funds, they must post a qtr'ly report of holdings, you could try asking them to send you the latest. tom w - ---------- > From: Dave Dubinsky > To: canslim@xmission.com > Subject: [CANSLIM] (no subject) > Date: Wednesday, February 12, 1997 12:38 PM > > Does anyone know if the holdings in the New USA Growth Fund are > published anywhere? I noticed that the fund as of yesterday was down 3% > and since it's a "CANSLIM" fund it would be interesting to note which > stocks he is holding. ------------------------------ From: "tom worley" Date: Wed, 12 Feb 1997 20:59:11 -0500 Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] canslim buy So, don't tease us, tell us why you like it and share the CANSLIM characteristics. tom w - ---------- > From: CA011667@aol.com > To: canslim@xmission.com > Subject: [CANSLIM] canslim buy > Date: Wednesday, February 12, 1997 6:35 PM > > To The Group, Just thought I would share my most recent canslim > purchase.Worth taking a look if you have not already. > Paxar > Corp.(PXR) 19 1/4. ------------------------------ From: "tom worley" Date: Wed, 12 Feb 1997 21:10:22 -0500 Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Trend Reversal - NEW MARKET RALLY? Friday's rally, as I pointed out in my "Mkt Comments" was almost entirely driven by the Employment nrs and the Sec of Treasury's comments, thus it was all news event related. This makes it somewhat unreliable to be to use as the "first day" example. I would rather consider today as that first day, and see what the rest of the week brings. On the other hand, I am feeling kinda good about my forecast on 2/8 of a breech of the 7000 level this week with a 250 to 300 point move for the entire week. After Monday and Tuesday, I was not so confident. On the other hand, the last two hour rally on Friday, and the last half hour rally yesterday, plus today's action, all of which was in techs, says to me that if a new leg up is starting, it will once again be led by tech stocks. - ---------- > From: M. Gates > To: canslim@xmission.com > Cc: cagriffin@mindspring.com > Subject: [CANSLIM] Trend Reversal - NEW MARKET RALLY? > Date: Wednesday, February 12, 1997 6:48 PM > > Mr. O'Niel looks for a rally day followed through by a up day of 1%+ > (such as today) on heavy volume (such as today) between 2-5 days after > the intial rally day. If one interpretted this last Friday as the first > rally day and today as the follow thru, then this is a big BUY signal. > > Does my analysis fit into the criteria Craig was espousing. If so what > are the market leaders that are breaking out that meet CANSLIM > criteria? MASX? Financial and brokerage stocks? DELL? INTC? SMOD? > > Feedback and ideas appreciated ------------------------------ From: "James Adams" Date: Wed, 12 Feb 1997 22:38:48 -0500 Subject: [CANSLIM] Charts from DG Looking at my DGs tonite I've noticed that the following stocks have attractive cup & dbl cup formations. Any comments would be appreciated. Am I off base? (no pun intended). LIFE Life Systems TEAM National Tech Team PTNX Printronix Inc. SRSV Source Services TIA, Jim Adams Maysville, KY (USA) jimadams@may-uky.campus.mci.net http://www.cris.com/~jimadams/ ------------------------------ From: Dave Dubinsky Date: Wed, 12 Feb 1997 22:45:55 -0800 Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Charts from DG James Adams wrote: > > Looking at my DGs tonite I've noticed that the following stocks have > attractive cup & dbl cup > formations. Any comments would be appreciated. Am I off base? (no pun > intended). > > LIFE Life Systems > TEAM National Tech Team > PTNX Printronix Inc. > SRSV Source Services > > TIA, > > Jim Adams Maysville, KY (USA) > jimadams@may-uky.campus.mci.net > http://www.cris.com/~jimadams/ Here's what I see -- LIFE - poor r/s, r/s in a downtrend TEAM - looks ok right now...more work needed in the base PTNX - r/s in downtrend, volume looks suspect, ok eps accelleration - Dave ------------------------------ From: "Mike Artobello" Date: Wed, 12 Feb 1997 22:05:33 -0800 Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Mental Stops vs Actual Stops Another observation is that O'Neils 7-8% stop loss would appear to be an easy target for MM's to take out, especially on low priced stocks (i.e. $10-35) and the fact that his methods are well known in the industry. Wouldn't the MM's lie in wait for us Canslimers and take out our stops? On a $20 stock, a 7% stop loss is only 1.40, which is well within a reasonable daily price range. Of course the higher the price of the stock the less likely this is to happen, but it's also less likely that these stocks will have as large a percentage gain as a lower priced stock. Any comments? Regards, Mike - ----------------------------------------------------------- Mike Artobello marto@ccnet.com http://www.ccnet.com/~marto/ - ----------------------------------------------------------- ------------------------------ From: Johan Van Houtven Date: Thu, 13 Feb 1997 12:05:31 +0100 Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Mental Stops vs Actual Stops Mike wrote: >Another observation is that O'Neils 7-8% stop loss would appear to >be an easy target for MM's to take out, especially on low priced >stocks (i.e. $10-35) and the fact that his methods are well known in >the industry. You bet. It is hard to prove, but sometimes you see suspicious things happening. And example of such a suspicious event is what happened to BTGC the last 2 days. Up to 10 FEB BTGC was in an uptrend. I had lots of block buying. Even on Monday 10 FEB I saw several big block buys around 17: Big money buying. It when to approx 17 1/2 that day. On Tuesday 11 FEB it went south all of a sudden. Practically ALL small sellers. Did they know something that the big guys didn't? I searched the Internet. Checked www.techstocks.com [BTGC]. Found no news or rumours whatsoever. Only a guy (retail investor) on www.techstocks.com that recently predicted a downturn because no stock can go up that fast in such a short periode of time (he wrote). He expected it to go back to the 12 / 13 area. That would be hard to believe, wouldn't it? All that big money buying between 16 and 17.... Anyway, that Tuesday 11 FEB BTGC when down from approx 17 1/4 to 15 7/8. About 8%. Closed at 16. I'd bet that a lot of stops were taken out that day. (While there was a mini support base of a few days at around 16 7/8.) Well on Wednesday12 FEB it reversed direction again and went north. Closed at 17 (17 1/4 ask, 17 bid). Up 1. Everything back to normal. Is this prove of MMs taking out stops? Of course not. But it is suspicious. I have seen much nicer examples, on intraday charts, where you see sudden thin downspikes: probably a MM going down to pick up a stop. I can't remember exactly where I read it, but I think there are some threads on www.techstocks.com about market manipulation. One of them is: http://talk.techstocks.com/investor/Subject-7481 >Wouldn't the MM's lie in wait for us Canslimers and >take out our stops? On a $20 stock, a 7% stop loss is only 1.40, >which is well within a reasonable daily price range. Of course the >higher the price of the stock the less likely this is to happen, but >it's also less likely that these stocks will have as large a >percentage gain as a lower priced stock. Any comments? > >Regards, > >Mike >----------------------------------------------------------- >Mike Artobello >marto@ccnet.com >http://www.ccnet.com/~marto/ >----------------------------------------------------------- > > - --- Johan Van Houtven / Belgium ------------------------------ From: "tom worley" Date: Thu, 13 Feb 1997 07:14:15 -0500 Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Mental Stops vs Actual Stops I don't know where this notion of the "MM (what I refer to as BD or broker-dealers and you mean as market makers) vs us investors" originated, but I say an emphatic phooey! Market makers (and I don't work for one currently but have worked for several in the past) are not out to get you. While it's not paranoia when "they" are really out to get you, it is paranoia when there is no basis for this. Mkt makers make their money by trading the spread. To do so, they take market risk just like any investor. A mkt maker who holds inventory overnight or longer must "mark to the market" every day as part of his capitalization requirement. To deliberately devalue a stock risks devaluating his inventory, thus his net worth, and risks failing to meet, or having to invest more money to meet, his capital requirements. A qtr pt spread can be just as profitable to a mkt maker with the stock trading at $30 or 8% or 20% lower. Likewise the same is true on an $80 stock. Since the recent allegations of OTC mkt makers conspiring to keep spreads large, all mkt makers are required to have tape recorders running on their phone lines. In addition, NASD can now legally tap those lines with no notice or awareness by the mkt maker and listen to the conversations. Many stocks have 20, 30 or more mkt makers, it would take a huge conspiracy to manipulate stocks like you think. A liquid stock would be far more difficult to move in the fashion you suspect than a thinly traded one. And remember, there are far more "value investors" than there are CANSLIMers, and they will step in on price dips and buy, thus taking away the "cheap" stock from the mkt makers before they could profit by running the price back up. Witness what happened yesterday and Tuesday, we finally found the buy point for value based investors for tech stocks. I have seen examples of what appeared to be a relatively small price drop of 1-2 percentage points to apparently take out stop loss orders, but in every case it has been on stocks that are thinly traded and have few mkt makers, and thus trade with larger than average spreads. This also includes one NYSE stock that typically trades with 1.5 pt spread. On OTC stocks as well as listed stocks, the one advantage that a mkt maker/specialist has over the individual investor is that he can see large orders before we do. Under the new rules this too will change. Right now, if you are the high bid on a $30 stock that averages 50K shares a day, and someone comes into the mkt looking to sell 100K, you are going to drop your bid and start negotiating. Likewise, every other mkt maker will see this and back away. I have seen many cases however where the bid held, the negotiation was done (these are typically institutional players who understand liquidity and the reality that they can't sell a large block at the quoted bid on thinly traded stocks) and then you will see a block trade usually well under the bid. This is how mkt makers can work to maintain stability in a stock. Sorry guys, but this investor, working within the industry, really doesn't believe they are out to get you. tom w - ---------- > From: Mike Artobello > To: canslim@xmission.com > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Mental Stops vs Actual Stops > Date: Thursday, February 13, 1997 1:05 AM > > be an easy target for MM's to take out, especially on low priced > stocks (i.e. $10-35) and the fact that his methods are well known in > the industry. Wouldn't the MM's lie in wait for us Canslimers and > higher the price of the stock the less likely this is to happen, but ------------------------------ From: Johan Van Houtven Date: Thu, 13 Feb 1997 15:21:51 +0100 Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] canslim buy Just looking at the graph, wouldn't you agree it is too late to buy it now after the recent breakout? When did you buy? Eps is accelerating last 3 quarters, and last 5 years. Timeliness: OK. Acc/Diss: OK. Not bad. Would you please share how you selected it? At 06:35 PM 2/12/97 -0500, you wrote: >To The Group, Just thought I would share my most recent canslim >purchase.Worth taking a look if you have not already. > Paxar >Corp.(PXR) 19 1/4. > > - --- Johan Van Houtven / Belgium ------------------------------ From: Johan Van Houtven Date: Thu, 13 Feb 1997 15:21:56 +0100 Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Advancing Industry groups AMAT's earnings sure sparked a nice semi ralley. Other semi's like LRCX also benefited. Some other stocks in the boader tech sector I like (not necessarily now!) also did well: SEG and DELL. Personally, I've migrated to some hot small caps. I see big money comming into some of these hot small caps. I guess that by the time everyone agrees (and the big guys start telling us) that the small cap sector is the pace to be, the big money guys will already firmly entrenched. Anyway there are always some good small caps to be in, so no matter what the trend is you can make money in them. Currently the consensus and trend is still: large caps / nifty fifthy rule. No doubt about that. Tom W. wrote: >After today, tho, may see a lot >of tech groups beating your criteria, least I hope so. Do you have a lot of techs? Still holding INLQ, or did you sell it a few weeks ago when it breached the 9 day dma? - --- Johan Van Houtven / Belgium ------------------------------ From: "David F. Cameron" Date: Thu, 13 Feb 1997 8:44:34 CST Subject: [CANSLIM] Re: Market Comments 2/12/97 > TO the entire CANSLIM group. As many of you know, Tom Worley, our resident broker, has been posting market and economic analysis to a subsection of this group. His comments are VERY insightful - and in fact, on Friday of last week he more or less CALLED this week's action (take that, Elaine). His comments regarding posting to the entire group are as follows: > I will admit when I am wrong in reading the mkt, and will crow when I > am right. I believe I hit it on the head regarding the end of the > correction in techs. I am also surprised and a little disappointed in > the lack of comments/feedback regarding reading "M". As I said > before, I don't have majordomo software installed so commenting > within this limited group is difficult. In part, this is deliberate > as I do not intend to take away from our CANSLIM group. If you see > something you deem worthy of group attention, snip it and send it. If > you want to discuss "M", do it with the entire group. I would much > prefer to take this series back to the entire group, but have to be > convinced that that is what the group wants. Right now we constitute > about a quarter of the group. Some of the more active posters in the > group are not included. I suspect most not included are lurkers and I > just don't know what they want. But there has been very little, in > fact next to none, discussion on judging market conditions, yet > everyone says that is the toughest item in CANSLIM to understand > accurately. You don't learn if you don't share opinions and ask > questions. > > Gotta go, good luck > > tom w > > As always, just OMHO > any opinions expressed, recommendations made, or advice given > are strictly my own and do not represent my employer Despite Tom's reluctance to post to the entire group, there are several of us who believe he should. Craig Griffin has been adamant about this and or listguy, Jeff, agrees. I am passing this along because there are several new members who may not know about Tom's expertise and willingness to share his opinions. If you wish to sign up for his list, he posts often enough for you to have his address. But, I think he should post to all of us. What do YOU think? Dave Cameron dcameron@harper.cc.il.us > ------------------------------ From: "David F. Cameron" Date: Thu, 13 Feb 1997 8:51:37 CST Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Charts from DG > > Looking at my DGs tonite I've noticed that the following stocks have > attractive cup & dbl cup > formations. Any comments would be appreciated. Am I off base? (no pun > intended). > > LIFE Life Systems The attempted breakout earlier in the month seems to have failed on low volume. Other than that - it doesn't look bad, IMHO, it just may not move anywhere for a while. I`d wait for a breakout, but then again I've bought stocks that look like this before (usually to sit for 9 months...) > TEAM National Tech Team Needs to base. > PTNX Printronix Inc. I think this one should have sustained its breakout to 17 earlier - since it fell back, the r/s is kind of weak. This is worth watching if it does it again... > SRSV Source Services I like this one (can't be negative on ALL of them). Again, CANSLIM recommends waiting for a breakout. If it happens in March on strong volume, go for it! > > TIA, > > Jim Adams Maysville, KY (USA) > jimadams@may-uky.campus.mci.net > http://www.cris.com/~jimadams/ Dave Cameron dcameron@harper.cc.il.us p.s. Don't take my comments as gospel by any means. I make as many mistakes as the next guy, if not more - but that's my call. > > ------------------------------ From: Johan Van Houtven Date: Thu, 13 Feb 1997 15:59:47 +0100 Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Mental Stops vs Actual Stops Of course not ALL of them are bad. Some are. Gotta be careful. Like you said especially in thinly traded stocks or/and with a limited amount of market makers. Why don't you read the thread at www.techstocks.com where a ex MM admits to doing these kind of things? Tom wrote: >Sorry guys, but this investor, working within the industry, really >doesn't believe they are out to get you. - --- Johan Van Houtven / Belgium ------------------------------ From: Johan Van Houtven Date: Thu, 13 Feb 1997 16:08:17 +0100 Subject: [CANSLIM] Stock manipulation Here are some interesting sites: 1) Forbes article, "One day soon the music's going to stop" http://www.forbes.com/forbes/072996/5803072a.htm George Chelekis' HOT STOCKS REVIEW, "Hot Stocks Confidential Essay" 2) http://www.hot-stocks.com/essays_html/deadly.html Read them. It will open your eyes. 3) Bid /Ask Spreads - Market Manipulation http://www3.techstocks.com/~wsapi/investor/subject-7299-ListAll - --- Johan Van Houtven / Belgium ------------------------------ From: Johan Van Houtven Date: Thu, 13 Feb 1997 16:22:45 +0100 Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Re: Market Comments 2/12/97 I think Tom's Market comments are THE most important subject for this group. The 'M' in CANSLIM is VERY important. Dave wrote: >What do YOU think? - --- Johan Van Houtven / Belgium ------------------------------ From: Haw-Jye Shyu Date: Thu, 13 Feb 1997 10:53:59 -0500 (EST) Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Re: Market Comments 2/12/97 Tom: Just post your Market comments. It fits with the CANSLIM. If people do not like it they will voice their opinion, right? Just do it! HJS - ----- Begin Included Message ----- From canslim-owner@xmission.com Thu Feb 13 09:52 EST 1997 From: "David F. Cameron" Subject: [CANSLIM] Re: Market Comments 2/12/97 To: stkguru@netside.net Date: Thu, 13 Feb 1997 8:44:34 CST Cc: canslim@xmission.com > TO the entire CANSLIM group. As many of you know, Tom Worley, our resident broker, has been posting market and economic analysis to a subsection of this group. His comments are VERY insightful - and in fact, on Friday of last week he more or less CALLED this week's action (take that, Elaine). His comments regarding posting to the entire group are as follows: > I will admit when I am wrong in reading the mkt, and will crow when I > am right. I believe I hit it on the head regarding the end of the > correction in techs. I am also surprised and a little disappointed in > the lack of comments/feedback regarding reading "M". As I said > before, I don't have majordomo software installed so commenting > within this limited group is difficult. In part, this is deliberate > as I do not intend to take away from our CANSLIM group. If you see > something you deem worthy of group attention, snip it and send it. If > you want to discuss "M", do it with the entire group. I would much > prefer to take this series back to the entire group, but have to be > convinced that that is what the group wants. Right now we constitute > about a quarter of the group. Some of the more active posters in the > group are not included. I suspect most not included are lurkers and I > just don't know what they want. But there has been very little, in > fact next to none, discussion on judging market conditions, yet > everyone says that is the toughest item in CANSLIM to understand > accurately. You don't learn if you don't share opinions and ask > questions. > > Gotta go, good luck > > tom w > > As always, just OMHO > any opinions expressed, recommendations made, or advice given > are strictly my own and do not represent my employer Despite Tom's reluctance to post to the entire group, there are several of us who believe he should. Craig Griffin has been adamant about this and or listguy, Jeff, agrees. I am passing this along because there are several new members who may not know about Tom's expertise and willingness to share his opinions. If you wish to sign up for his list, he posts often enough for you to have his address. But, I think he should post to all of us. What do YOU think? Dave Cameron dcameron@harper.cc.il.us > - ----- End Included Message ----- ------------------------------ End of canslim Digest V1 #79 **************************** To subscribe to canslim Digest, send the command: subscribe canslim-digest in the body of a message to "majordomo@xmission.com". If you want to subscribe something other than the account the mail is coming from, such as a local redistribution list, then append that address to the "subscribe" command; for example, to subscribe "local-canslim": subscribe canslim-digest local-canslim@your.domain.net A non-digest (direct mail) version of this list is also available; to subscribe to that instead, replace all instances of "canslim-digest" in the commands above with "canslim". Back issues are available for anonymous FTP from ftp.xmission.com, in pub/lists/canslim/archive. These are organized by date.