From: canslim-owner@xmission.com (canslim Digest) To: canslim-digest@xmission.com Subject: canslim Digest V1 #139 Reply-To: canslim@xmission.com Sender: canslim-owner@xmission.com Errors-To: canslim-owner@xmission.com Precedence: canslim Digest Monday, April 14 1997 Volume 01 : Number 139 In this issue: [CANSLIM] WON on AOL [CANSLIM] After hours trading Re: [CANSLIM] Weekely update on Jame's Stock Picks 4/4/97 Re: [CANSLIM] After hours trading [CANSLIM] o'neil letter (was re: Weekely update...) goldfish's portfolio (was re: [CANSLIM] Weekely update...) Re: [CANSLIM] After hours trading Re: [CANSLIM] Weekely update on Jame's Stock Picks 4/4/97 Re: [CANSLIM] After hours trading Re: [CANSLIM] After hours trading Re: [CANSLIM] "m" in CANSLIM Re: [CANSLIM] After hours trading Re: [CANSLIM] "m" in CANSLIM Fw: [CANSLIM] The market and earnings Fw: [CANSLIM] What Works On Wall Street Re: [CANSLIM] Weekely update on Jame's Stock Picks 4/4/97 Re: [CANSLIM] WON on AOL Re: [CANSLIM] Weekely update on Jame's Stock Picks 4/4/97 [CANSLIM] "food" for thought Re: [CANSLIM]Returning to a discussion of CANSLIM [CANSLIM] Message from O'Neil Re: [CANSLIM] WON on AOL [CANSLIM] Intro: Peter Christiansen [CANSLIM] Briefing.com Market Review See the end of the digest for information on subscribing to the canslim or canslim-digest mailing lists and on how to retrieve back issues. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Date: Sat, 12 Apr 1997 20:30:09 -0400 From: derek b Subject: [CANSLIM] WON on AOL found on another list: - ---------------------- William O'Neil, founder of Investors Business Daily will be appearing live on American Online on Monday 4/14/97 at 7 pm PST/10pm EST. Keyword: Personal Finance Live. It will be interesting to see what the granddaddy of momentum investing has to say about the current market. ------------------------------ Date: Sat, 12 Apr 1997 20:43:15 -0400 From: derek b Subject: [CANSLIM] After hours trading Looks like this trend will continue: - -------------------------------- "Increasingly, companies are making announcements after the close of regular market hours. Before the next day's opening bell, pros may have bought and sold thousands of shares in after-hours trading. Should little investors care? ... a handful of companies offer ways for individuals to tap into off-hours systems. Prominent among these firms is PT Discount Brokerage, a young Chicago-based broker that sells individuals access to Instinet and SelectNet - through which securities firms trade with each other - before and after market hours." http://www.barrons.com/bie/articles/19970411/aftershocks.htm ------------------------------ Date: Sat, 12 Apr 1997 20:10:54 -0500 From: "Brenda" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Weekely update on Jame's Stock Picks 4/4/97 It's almost scary to think that somebody would do that much work from "my" suggestions to "take a LOOK at". However, I ALWAYS tell anybody before ever purchasing any stock to please ALWAYS do your own homework. Never buy on somebody else's suggestion. At the time I recommended those stocks they graded out higher than all other stocks on all exchanges. That tells a mouthful. When you start seeing names like this leading the pack it tells you a lot about the cycle. Just received letter from Wm On'Neil about the market, it's condition, and what to do in a generally declining market (all IBD subscribers should have gotten one). I grade a stock on eight different fronts before I purchase it into my "System Portfolio". At the time these stocks graded out 95 or higher they graded out as follows: STK Mgt EPS REL ACC SPN GRP GRF GRF Avg Score L S MLHR 3 96 98 95 95 95 98 92 98.7 GDYS 62 78 98 95 95 95 92 96 97.0 PSUN 4 84 99 95 95 95 90 86 96.2 ASTSF 2 72 99 95 95 95 93 88 96.0 TUES 35 68 99 95 95 95 93 90 95.9 SRR 1 59 97 95 95 95 93 95 95.6 I stated that the week only had six stocks that graded out higher than 95 which is the BOTTOM that qualifies a stock for "consideration". When the market conditions are right there will be 50-100 that will grade out higher than 95. l "prefer" not to buy stocks that do not grade out in the 98.5 category or higher and usually can dip down to even 97.5 without a "lot" of trepidation. Notice that stipulation throws out everything except for MLHR. Still "The System" does buy the top five each week, when there is a top five grading out 95 or higher, buying an equal dollar amount of each. This incorporated some of Lynch's theory of buying in lots of five and even he has NO idea which will do well. He expects at least one to tank, one to do real well and he hopes the others "sorta hold their own". I've noticed that when he gives picks based on using 5 as a guide he is within those boundaries. If one "could have" purchased those stocks for the prices you stated (Friday's closing prices) for the week the net result would be Down 3.8%. I wonder how many people in the WORLD would like to be down 3.8% for last weeks activity. Particulary for those buying in on Monday. The ratings above are done according to" % of stock owned by management, EPS rating taken out of most current IBD issue, Relative Strength rating out of IBD, Accumulation of out IBD, Sponsorship Ownership (Must be owned by a Mutual Fund and given A, B & C rating usually, not always in IBD Week-End Review, Group Grade out of IBD, Graph (aka - price pattern) Long Term One Year grade, and Graph Short Term grade (30 days ignoring anything previous to 30 days old). Letter grades out of IBD are converted to number grades. A-95, B-85, C-70, D-60, E-50 - The graph grade is my only subjective insertion. I look at the stock and attempt to grade volatility. I look at the stock and imagine being an 85 year old who owns only this ONE stock and lives, eats, pays the rent, etc. on what this stock has done and does in the future. The higher grade I give it the less the stock volatility. A 99 grade states absolutely NO 5% dip in a year.My grading system can be taught (wish i could teach it to my computer) but it is not easy to learn as Brenda would attestify to. I prefer to own a stock where management owns more than 10% but less than 40%. I use this almost as a tie breaker. Give two stocks equal in almost all other aspects and one falls into the management criteria and the other doesn't I prefer to own the one which falls into the management qualification category. Since 1990 I have ALWAYS had a top five prior to March 14, 1997. That was the first week there was no top five. That was an EXTREME notification of market conditions. I also keep up with a top 25 list and I have not had a top 25 list since the first of the year. Once I quit having a top 25 list that also was a notification that market conditions were deteriorating. The top 25 list quit before tops were hit in the indexes. We all have our own theories, ideas and are constantly looking for ways to hone and improve our skills, increase our knowledge and certainly make this investing thing a little easier. For me, CANSLIM is the best system "fully explained" out there in print. I like buying winners. I like buying the creme de la creme of the market. I like buying stocks in the top 5% of all stocks on the market. I like it when the stocks I buy are in the top 5% in ALL categories. I live (eat and pay the rent) based on whether I am successful in the market or not. Not an easy way to make a living and I work the hardest and make the least in times just likes these. It "appears" I work the least and make the most in the up cycles. That appears that way because of the work done in times like these and "being in" the right places "at the right time" when the break outs up come and not having to be notified that the time is here. At that time a good percentage of the upward move has already been made. I am usually in for that initial ride up. Hope this text has not been too terribly long. Just wanted some of you newcomers to get a better feel for some of what I "sorta do". Could never explain it here. When I mention a stock many times it will just be because of the graph (aka price pattern) shape. For me, I put it into a holding tank (a portfolio on my TC2000). I watch it for a while and as soon as I can or it appears to be acting right I grade it out on all fronts. Volume is not mentioned but it factors into the graph grade. A stock trading 5000 shares daily compared with a stock trading 100,000 shares a day has to have a tremendously better, tighter graph shape to get the same grade. Oh well, better run. Hope this helps somewhat. James By the way. Did not have 5 stocks grade out over 95 this week, thusly NO top five list. Last week, simply "implied" that conditions were favorable for a consolidation. I still think that is true. Personally, I think we are "about at" a consolidation point. NONE I my stocks stopped out Friday but a lot are within a dollar and some 1/8 of being executed which pretty much guarantees that will execute Monday morning. I never change on downward, only upward. Yes, I use more than a 8% and I did read Mr. O'Neils letter which states 8%. Personally, IF YOU ARE GOING TO BE IN OUR CURRENT MARKET, which I advise against for most IMHO an 8% stop/loss will stop you out of 95% or better of any investment you make. Has anybody ever subscribed to the O'Neil wire service (about $20,000 a year) where he buys and sells stocks. I've been told that the biggest offender and mis-user of the CANSLIM system........... Has anybody actually tracked that service? Have a good week-end! James - ---------- > From: GoldFish > To: canslim@mail.xmission.com > Subject: [CANSLIM] Weekely update on Jame's Stock Picks 4/4/97 > Date: Saturday, April 12, 1997 8:54 PM > > Hi Folks: > > I use "MY Yahoo" to setup a portfolio for Jame's stock picks. Here is > this week result. If there is no objection, I'll post it every Saturday. > Assumed we buy one share from each company with the price on > the day that Jame suggested (4/4/97). Comission was not factored in > because Mr. O'Neil said so on page 240, item 13, in his book. > This is just an exercise. > > price Current paid gain > ASTSF $35 $34 +$1.00 +2.94% > GDYS $21 3/8 $23 5/8 -$2.25 -9.52% > MLHR $74 $71 1/8 +$2.28 +4.04% > PSUN $31 $34 -$3.00 -8.82% > SRR $14 3/4 $15 1/4 -$0.50 -3.28% > TUES $30 1/2 $33 -$2.50 -7.58% > > EPS last Q current Q 97 FY 98 FY > ASTSF n/a 0.35 1.66 2.26 > GDYS 0.62 0.18 1.20 1.50 > MLHR 0.79 0.82 3.02 3.59 > PSUN 0.40 0.02 1.19 1.51 > SRR 0.08 0.12 0.28 0.53 > TUES 1.33 0.05 1.69 1.84 > > Based on CANSLIM: > 1) > C- GDYS,PSUN,TUES violated C in CANSLIM. (i.e. current quarter > has a decreasing earning) > A- All of them violate A in CANSLIM. (i.e None of them has a > stable and consistent 5 year earning record) > N- They satisfiy N in CANSLIM. All of them have New high recently. > > I'll let someone else to say something about "SLIM" for these stocks. > > We should sell GDYS,PSUN and TUES based on CANSLIM 7% (8%) stop loss > rule specified by Mr. O'neil on page 87 in his book. > > 2)MLHR is a office furniture manufacture; ASTSF is an integrated-circuit > testing firm in Taiwan; the rest is in > apparel industry. > > 3)The key common feature (IMHO) for all these companies is that they > have an overall upward trend (in up channel) and this trend seems > to be still holding. The estimated annual earning is also increasing. > > 4)for fundamental data, we can go to > http://www.dailystocks.com/ > to dig out. > > 5)For earning estimate, we can go to > http://www.ultra.zacks.com/cgi-bin/ShowFreeCompRep > to find out. > > 6)the 97 and 98 Fisical Year earning are estimation. ------------------------------ Date: Sat, 12 Apr 1997 20:34:29 -0500 From: "Brenda" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] After hours trading I tried pulling up this site and got message that address was not complete. Anybody else have the same thing happen? James - ---------- > From: derek b > To: canslim@mail.xmission.com > Subject: [CANSLIM] After hours trading > Date: Saturday, April 12, 1997 7:43 PM > > Looks like this trend will continue: > > -------------------------------- > "Increasingly, companies are making announcements after the close of > regular market hours. Before the next day's opening bell, pros may have > bought and sold thousands of shares in after-hours trading. Should > little investors care? > > ... a handful of companies offer ways for individuals to tap into > off-hours systems. > > Prominent among these firms is PT Discount Brokerage, a young > Chicago-based broker that sells individuals access to Instinet and > SelectNet - through which securities firms trade with each other - > before and after market hours." > > http://www.barrons.com/bie/articles/19970411/aftershocks.htm ------------------------------ Date: Sat, 12 Apr 1997 21:42:38 -0400 From: Michael A Langston Subject: [CANSLIM] o'neil letter (was re: Weekely update...) > Just received letter from Wm On'Neil about the market, it's > condition, and what to do in a generally declining market (all > IBD subscribers should have gotten one). got mine -- my interpretation: IBD renewals are down, time to give a little pep talk to subscribers lest more desert the congregation after all, canslim has been a tough sell for close to a year now probably the same reason the swell volume tables at IBD's web site were deleted w/o even a warning recently -- make em buy the paper watch this biz long enuf, and it's mighty hard not to be cynical mike ------------------------------ Date: Sat, 12 Apr 1997 21:52:49 -0400 From: Michael A Langston Subject: goldfish's portfolio (was re: [CANSLIM] Weekely update...) > If there is no objection, I'll post it every Saturday. > This is just an exercise. sure, if it turns you on, go for it goldfish -- i'm not particularly thrilled, but one more email to delete a week won't exactly kill me at least it's not some half-ass contest! btw, i though you quit this group -- glad you're sticking it out mike ------------------------------ Date: Sat, 12 Apr 1997 22:47:35 -0700 From: GoldFish Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] After hours trading Jame: You need to go to http://www.barrons.com/ Then you need to register (It is free so far). After that, you will be able to log on and surf. Good luck. Haw-Jye Shyu Brenda wrote: > > I tried pulling up this site and got message that address was not complete. > Anybody else have the same thing happen? > James > ------------------------------ Date: Sat, 12 Apr 1997 23:55:50 -0700 From: GoldFish Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Weekely update on Jame's Stock Picks 4/4/97 Tom, Jame: So far, It seems to me that Mr. Michael A Langston is the only one who hate it. We know market will fluctuate, an 3.8% drop in a portfolio is noting in present market condition. MRK, JNJ, INC, HWP, MO, CCI,CMB, LLY, BGEN, SEG... these big guys fell more than 15% (some even 20%, 30% down) from their 52 week high. To me, Jame's picks are not bad at all. Sincerely, Haw-Jye Shyu ------------------------------ Date: Sun, 13 Apr 1997 04:25:23 GMT From: musicant@autobahn.org (Dan Musicant) Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] After hours trading On Sat, 12 Apr 1997 20:34:29 -0500, you wrote: :I tried pulling up this site and got message that address was not = complete. :Anybody else have the same thing happen? :James Yes, I had the same problem. The message was that Netscape could not find www.barrons.com That's very weird, because I have the very same URL bookmarked, and have obviously gone there before -- that's how I bookmarked it in the first place. I also was not able to access Goldfish's www.dailystocks.com I have had similar problems in the past. The cause could be a server down. Dan :>=20 :> http://www.barrons.com/bie/articles/19970411/aftershocks.htm ------------------------------ Date: Sat, 12 Apr 1997 23:49:00 -0500 From: "Brenda" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] After hours trading Thanks Goldfish, The address you gave me for Barons worked. I have just about quit reading it because of a time factor. There are only so many hours in a day. Also, I get so flustered reading some of the material. Think Tom is not to fond of them either. They DO MOVE markets however. You all have a good week-end and just remember that "Bear markets", per WJO usually last about 8 months. Lake Livingston is out my back door and I've been meaning to get some good fishing in. james - ---------- From: Dan Musicant To: canslim@mail.xmission.com Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] After hours trading Date: Saturday, April 12, 1997 11:25 PM On Sat, 12 Apr 1997 20:34:29 -0500, you wrote: :I tried pulling up this site and got message that address was not complete. :Anybody else have the same thing happen? :James Yes, I had the same problem. The message was that Netscape could not find www.barrons.com That's very weird, because I have the very same URL bookmarked, and have obviously gone there before -- that's how I bookmarked it in the first place. I also was not able to access Goldfish's www.dailystocks.com I have had similar problems in the past. The cause could be a server down. Dan :> :> http://www.barrons.com/bie/articles/19970411/aftershocks.htm - ---------- ------------------------------ Date: Sat, 12 Apr 1997 22:04:46 -0800 From: pwahl@postoffice.worldnet.att.net Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] "m" in CANSLIM > From: pwahl@postoffice.worldnet.att.net > > From: GoldFish > > > After Tom's analysis on COMS, I am really confused about the importance > > of furture earning. According to next year earning estimation, > > Intell is selling with project PE=12.6 and COMS is selling with project > > PE=12.40. I just hope that they will not go down further. It is hard to > > believe that growth stock can be on this kind of price level. > > Three Com is a good buy and will get back to higher > levels if those earnings estimates are accurate. If not, then it > could lay there for a while. I think there is some uncertainty > regarding a 3Com product due to an Intel price cut in a competing > product, plus probably general uncertainty about the USRX > acquisition. > Ugh. I am going to answer my own message, since on rereading this I think I said it could go up or down - maybe. Pretty useless. So here goes again, maybe a little better this time. I just read somewhere (BW, Barrons, Forbes, WSJ, etc.) that an analyst said he thought 3 Com was a good buy at these levels, and his earnings forecast for this year is $2.05, next year something like $2.80. The $2.05 gives us a p/e of 16, the $2.80 a p/e of 12 or so based on next years earnings and current price. In my more naive days as an investor (last year probably) I would have gotten excited over such a forecast and figured it was a very undervalued stock. However, I've seen enough totally worthless forecasts to be skeptical of all of them and to place most emphasis on what the price is doing. If price disagrees with the estimates, better to go along with price action. Anyway, I think what I wanted to say initially is that if those estimates are good, probably you can put a p/e of mid 20's on those earnings and look for price around 50 this year, and possibly 70 a year+ out. Possibly all the uncertainty around 3 Com is keeping price down until they prove via a good earning result that they are not having troubles. I think they are probably a low risk play here, where the biggest risk is dead money if they stumble, and best case are my numbers above. But its more of a gamble than your usual CANSLIM stock. You cannot really cut your losses at 8% because you aren't buying a breakout where the stock should go on a run. You have to expect price to bounce around the bottom for a while. A word or two on analysts and their forecasts: I think they tend to be fairly optimistic, I think in most cases they see things continuing as they are, so project earnings to continue on whatever the current pace is. Also, (someone suggested this to me) they see other analysts forecasts and tend to lump theirs in the middle of the pack, their idea being that if they are wrong, everyone else was too, so they can't get in trouble with the boss. As an example of what I am talking about above, I think it would be interesting to look at some forecasts for the semiconductor industry when they were flying high in 1995. I think that when Micron Technology was at around 80-90 in '95, the earnings forecasts for 1996 were something like $14 per share. Of course 1996 turned out to be the year the bottom fell out of the chip market. Hope this is more useful than my last stab at this one. Patrick Wahl ------------------------------ Date: Sun, 13 Apr 1997 08:20:50 -0400 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] After hours trading I would disagree with Barron's claim of an increase in after mkt announcements. I have been reviewing headlines for many years, and if anything I would say it is the reverse. There are some companies that historically ALWAYS report after the close just as there are those that ALWAYS report in the morning before the opening. I certainly have seen other cos that will report depending on whether it is good or bad news (good news in the morning or during the day, bad as late as possible). As to access to aftermkt trading, any decent brokerage house has access and should have little problem in handling your order. Understand tho, after market trading is for the serious trader, the desperate, and the high risk taker. I have seen stocks spike up 7 or 8 pts in aftermkt, then open the next day down from the previous day's regular mkt close. Typical trades in aftermkt are in the 20,000 share range. Spreads are almost always enlarged. Only the Pacific is available in some cases, and a stock that trades with an eighth spread on NYSE will have a 1 to 2 pt spread in aftermkt on the Pacific. You can sometimes go in between but no guarantee of execution. tom w - ---------- > From: derek b > To: canslim@mail.xmission.com > Subject: [CANSLIM] After hours trading > Date: Saturday, April 12, 1997 8:43 PM > > Looks like this trend will continue: > > -------------------------------- > "Increasingly, companies are making announcements after the close of > regular market hours. Before the next day's opening bell, pros may have > bought and sold thousands of shares in after-hours trading. Should > little investors care? > > ... a handful of companies offer ways for individuals to tap into > off-hours systems. ------------------------------ Date: Sun, 13 Apr 1997 08:30:28 -0400 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] "m" in CANSLIM I definitely agree there is a "herd mentality" among analysts. There is also the continuing challenge to be a "Garzarelli", to spot that overlooked stock that will have explosive earnings and nobody noticed or to spot the high flyer with inflated earnings or obsolete inventory or product about to fall out of favor, and be the first to slash earnings, get boo'd temporarily, then proven right later. Overall, tho, I believe the greatest motivation is to look correct, so I don't think they are always that optimistic in their projections. I committed this same mistake when I estimated core PPI. My reviews and instinct told me it would be higher than the 0.2 I reported, but since all these professional analysts were calling for unchanged, then changed to up 0.1 only the day before, I stayed conservative and didn't raise my estimate according to what I really thought would happen. You tend to be remembered far more for when you are wrong than when you are right. tom w - ---------- > From: pwahl@postoffice.worldnet.att.net > To: canslim@mail.xmission.com > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] "m" in CANSLIM > Date: Sunday, April 13, 1997 2:04 AM > > > From: pwahl@postoffice.worldnet.att.net > > > > From: GoldFish > > > A word or two on analysts and their forecasts: I think they tend to > be fairly optimistic, I think in most cases they see things > continuing as they are, so project earnings to continue on > whatever the current pace is. Also, (someone suggested this to me) > they see other analysts forecasts and tend to lump theirs in the > middle of the pack, their idea being that if they are wrong, everyone > else was too, so they can't get in trouble with the boss. > ------------------------------ Date: Sun, 13 Apr 1997 08:32:36 -0400 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Fw: [CANSLIM] The market and earnings Didn't see this one come back, sorry if it is a dup for you. tom w - ---------- > From: Tom Worley > To: canslim@mail.xmission.com > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] The market and earnings > Date: Saturday, April 12, 1997 9:45 AM > > As to the eagle eyes, I was doing better before the tri-focals > broke, gotta find the time to see the eye dr and get a new Rx. > I've got space on my monitor for about 50 or so symbols (actually I > recently upgraded everyone's software and now have the capacity for > about 800, but haven't had the time to read the manual and learn > how to use it!). I keep a nr of symbols up there (long bond, gold, > bond futures, s&p100 and 500, dow30, nasdaq, russell 200, chips > index, internet index, etc) plus I keep about 25 tech stocks up > there, all as guages on the mkt (since I consider techs as the > single most important leadership group). Of course I keep my > current portfolio up there as well as any I am "watching", often > ones mentioned here. During the earnings cycle, I also stick up > ones that reported after the close with huge neg or pos reports to > see how they act the next day. If I ever get the new software > implemented, then I plan to go to work a little earlier and do the > same for the ones that reported in the morning before the open. > I never predicted a gap up, actually I expected all to open flat or > gap down, as that has been the pattern. But if I had looked at the > chart on DS, I probably would have singled it out as the exception. > I doubt I would have ever guessed on KEA gapping up, chart too > sloppy. Of course, on DS you would have had to position yourself > the prior day or sooner, if you waited for the earnings report it > was already too late and I wouldn't have chased it in this mkt. > What do we do now? Choices are stay in cash, use a different style > of investing, work even harder at studying charts and finding the > few legitimate CANSLIM candidates out there (there are some, but > next to none in the tech groups, despite its spread MFAC moved up > and hit a new high yesterday, and MLHR also held up well on light > vol for two examples that have been mentioned here). Some tech > stocks that also held up, but haven't looked at their chart > recently, include GATE, HWP, IBM, MRVC. ALTR staged a reversal it > appears, and BARR was up for the day. > I meant to print off the stocks that hit new highs (there weren't > many) and study their charts this weekend. > For me, I will play the lottery tonight and hope I can pick good > nrs there. > > tom w > ---------- > > From: GoldFish > > To: canslim@mail.xmission.com > > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] The market and earnings > > Date: Saturday, April 12, 1997 12:45 AM > > > > Tom Worley wrote: > > > > > Tom: > > I was watching them. I am very impreessive with your eagle eyes. > > Questions: > > 1) What on earth that you are able to spot them? > > 2) How can you predict them to gap up? - I didn't > > 3) All of them have strong earning, but only two of them jump up, > why? > > If earning is that important, then they should all jump up in > > price right? > > > ------------------------------ Date: Sun, 13 Apr 1997 08:33:13 -0400 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Fw: [CANSLIM] What Works On Wall Street Another one I didn't see returned. tom w - ---------- > From: Tom Worley > To: canslim@mail.xmission.com > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] What Works On Wall Street > Date: Saturday, April 12, 1997 9:55 AM > > Not sure how he backtested CANSLIM, but here are the figures from > an old NSMI book (NSMI was O'Neill's institutional recommendations > picks, they came out live throughout the week by fax). > > The first figure is the NSMI performance, the second is the S&P500, > all figures are in percent, plus is assumed unless indicated as > neg. > 1987 .6/.05 > 1988 22.45/12.4 > 1989 53.12/27.26 > 1990 -3.51/-6.98 > 1991 92.95/23.67 > 1992 27.73/7.2 > 1993 29.02/7.04 > 1994 12.1/-1.55 > > He did have some down years, but as has been said before, CANSLIM > works best in a mkt trending up. The key is to limit the losses, > then make a lot of money when the mkt favors you. > > tom w > ---------- > > From: PPNewell@aol.com > > To: canslim@mail.xmission.com > > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] What Works On Wall Street > > Date: Friday, April 11, 1997 10:03 PM > > > > I read some info from his book something like "Invest like the > masters" > > anyhow he backed tested CANSLIM using non subjective criteria > and came up > > with a 30% annual return from 85-92, not exactly the best times > due to 2 > > downdrafts. No, year ever had a loss. > > > > Peter Newell ------------------------------ Date: Sun, 13 Apr 1997 08:46:55 -0400 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Weekely update on Jame's Stock Picks 4/4/97 Appreciate the info, and the feel for the mkt overall. I snipped two paragraphs below - if I read the first one correctly, it appears you put at least as much weigh on volatility over the past yr as on other, more traditional CANSLIM criteria. How do you grade a stock that had little volatility until Feb or Mar, then reacted with the market? Does that wipe out a lack of volatility for the prior ten months? When I was at a previous firm, we were receiving the NSMI service, altho not the top shelf version with weekly "big books". Seems we were paying around $20-30/year, so this may be the same. I liked it, esp since it was an institutional service mostly for funds and pension fund mgrs and the like. Since they would buy a qtr mil shares or so if they liked something, where we as an office might only buy 10 to 20 thou, we could react faster to a fax'd "pick" and often be positioned just ahead of a major buy by a fund. It's always nice to open a new position, and finish the day up a pt or so with the stock looking strong and suggesting a followthru the next day. helps you sleep better than night. tom w - ---------- > From: Brenda > To: canslim@mail.xmission.com > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Weekely update on Jame's Stock Picks 4/4/97 > Date: Saturday, April 12, 1997 9:10 PM > > I look at the stock and imagine being an 85 year old who owns only this ONE > stock and lives, eats, pays the rent, etc. on what this stock has done and > does in the future. The higher grade I give it the less the stock > volatility. A 99 grade states absolutely NO 5% dip in a year.My grading > > Has anybody ever subscribed to the O'Neil wire service (about $20,000 a > year) where he buys and sells stocks. I've been told that the biggest > offender and mis-user of the CANSLIM system........... Has anybody actually > tracked that service? ------------------------------ Date: Sun, 13 Apr 1997 09:02:02 -0400 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] WON on AOL Hope you will post a summary? tom w - ---------- > From: derek b > To: canslim@mail.xmission.com > Subject: [CANSLIM] WON on AOL > Date: Saturday, April 12, 1997 8:30 PM > > found on another list: > ---------------------- > William O'Neil, founder of Investors Business Daily will be appearing > live on American Online on Monday 4/14/97 at 7 pm PST/10pm EST. > Keyword: Personal Finance Live. > > It will be interesting to see what the granddaddy of momentum investing > has to say about the current market. ------------------------------ Date: Sun, 13 Apr 1997 08:59:58 -0400 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Weekely update on Jame's Stock Picks 4/4/97 Unless I missed something, I don't think Mike hates either James' picks or your weekly review, just that a 3.8% loss for the week is nothing to get excited about. James does this for a living, which means he has more time than I to study the mkt and many stocks. He has his own system of selection, but it is CANSLIM based even if not pure CANSLIM, therefore I will look at his picks and judge for myself and welcome them being posted. Long as everyone understands they each carry the responsibility to do their own homework and make their own decisions, then keep on posting. tom w - ---------- > From: GoldFish > To: canslim@mail.xmission.com > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Weekely update on Jame's Stock Picks 4/4/97 > Date: Sunday, April 13, 1997 2:55 AM > > Tom, Jame: > > So far, It seems to me that Mr. Michael A Langston is the > only one who hate it. > > We know market will fluctuate, an 3.8% drop in a portfolio is > noting in present market condition. MRK, JNJ, INC, HWP, MO, CCI,CMB, ------------------------------ Date: Sun, 13 Apr 1997 09:29:22 -0400 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: [CANSLIM] "food" for thought In a review I did this weekend of industry group performance last week, no major groups were up that I found, and only two subgroups were up for the week: tobacco and fishing. Maybe its time for some quality leisure pursuits? tom w Any opinions are strictly my own and not that of my employer. My comments are based on a variety of sources and are intended strictly to assist and inform. In no way am I suggesting a buy, sell, or hold decision based on my comments or observations. I always urge an investor to do his or her own homework, and be sure the risk of the market can be tolerated and any losses accepted gracefully. ------------------------------ Date: Sun, 13 Apr 1997 11:08:02 -0500 From: Jimmy Sorrells Subject: Re: [CANSLIM]Returning to a discussion of CANSLIM > >How about it experienced CANSLIM folks. What do you think is most important > >and least important? When you read Investors' Business Daily what do you look > >for first? Here is my CANSLIM recipe: 1. Take the daily copy of IBD and look at the "Intelligent Tables", write down all of the stocks that are boldfaced. This takes care of C,A,S. To be boldfaced the stock must have a EPS rank>80 (CA) and a RS>80 (S) (this means that you are looking at a stock that is in the top 20% of both EPS and Relative Strength). 2. Rank the stocks first by %Change in Volume, then by how close they are to their 52-week high (I want %Change in Volume>100, and within $1 of high). This takes care of N for me (New interest in the stock, for whatever reason, and movement to new highs). 3. Get your favorite charting program and look at charts of all the stocks that made it through the screen. Are they coming out of a good solid base? Is there overhead resistance close by? Is the chart good and tight with a strong b/o, or is it wide and choppy (lots of movement up and down, day to day)? Look for good tight bases with strong increased volume and sharp breakouts (good examples to look at from last year are ZOLT, TEAM, INVX, PMRY, WTEC). 4. After you have reviewed them all and have found a set that really look good, look for news on those stocks and find out how much Institutional ownership (I) they have. Again this is listed in the IBD. A little is good, a lot is not so good. Look for 2%-20%. 5. Understand the overall direction of the market (M). You only want to purchase if the overall market trend is up. A very simple way to monitor the direction of the market is to always review the Nasdaq, S&P, and DJIA charts in the IBD. If the market is trending down (as it is now) all CANSLIM bets are off. 6. Look at other stocks in the same industry group. Are the other stocks looking good too? If not beware. Try to stay with the best stocks within a group. In order of importance I rank the CANSLIM elements this way: 1. CA (companies with good earnings appeal to a lot of investors) 2. N (volume increase means new interest in a stock, for whatever reason) 3. Look at the price/volume chart, stick with stocks breaking out of tight bases. 4. S (stay with strong stocks, it means that they are liked by investors) 5. M (know the overall market, do not fight the trend when the market is declining) 6. IL (go for low/moderate institutional ownership, try to stay with leaders) Hope this helps. Jimmy ------------------------------ Date: Sun, 13 Apr 1997 09:38:58 -0700 From: "James B. Andrews" Subject: [CANSLIM] Message from O'Neil I have been a subscriber to the IBD for years and yesterday, in the snail mail, I received a form letter, two pages, sent to "Dear Subscriber" suggesting we all be careful at this time... He mentioned rereading chapters 9,10 and especially 7 in his book.. He also mentioned that in June he would be "sending all subscribers a complimentary forty five minute videotape designed to help you maximize your future success with IBD". I thought that the letter and upcoming video was a nice gesture on his part... Jim Andrews - Phoenix ------------------------------ Date: Sat, 12 Apr 1997 22:56:24 -0600 (MDT) From: jbeckham@vcn.com Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] WON on AOL >William O'Neil, founder of Investors Business Daily will be appearing >live on American Online on Monday 4/14/97 at 7 pm PST/10pm EST. >Keyword: Personal Finance Live. Unfortunately I don't subscribe to AOL. Keep us informed! Jeff ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 14 Apr 1997 13:07:38 GMT+7 From: Peter Christiansen Subject: [CANSLIM] Intro: Peter Christiansen Just a quick note of introduction... My name is Peter Christiansen, and I currently live in Bangkok Thailand. I have been trading with CANSLIM methods for the last 7 years. I attended one of William O'Neil's investment workshops several years ago. CANSLIM has served me well, and I look forward to exchanging ideas with the participants of this group. Peter Christiansen Bangkok, Thailand Connected with OS/2 Warp 3.0 & The Post Road Mailer _____________________________________________________________________________________ Since time immemorial and pre-industrial, 'greed' has been the accusation hurled at the rich by the concrete-bound illiterates who were unable to conceive of the source of wealth or of the motivation of those who produce it. - -- Ayn Rand ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 14 Apr 1997 11:27:20 -0400 (EDT) From: Craig Griffin Subject: [CANSLIM] Briefing.com Market Review Here are some interesting market review thoughts re: Friday's close and today's open quoted from Briefing.com at -- http://www.briefing.com/intro/istocks.htm BEGIN QUOTE form BRIEFING.COM --->>>>>> 09:40 ET Dow -4, Nasdaq +2, S&P -0.40: Stocks open near flat...not impressive in that there is virtually no bounce after the severe drop Friday...Novellus -15 5/8 but the Nasdaq does manage a minor early gain...sentiment remains very nervous ahead of CPI tomorrow morning and a slew of earnings reports this week. 09:15 ET: Look for a flat to down open...bonds are unchanged and the S&P futures up a point, but they closed below equilibrium with the cash on Friday, so that doesn't necessarily translate into strength for the cash market...more concerning is that Novellus is indicated to open close to -10 after earnings and a warning that a patent infringement suit could materially affect earnings...Compaq was also downgraded, but Intel earnings estimates were raised by Lehman...see Short Stories or details on individual stocks. Close Friday: Dow -148.36 at 6391.69, Nasdaq -28.87 at 1206.90, S&P -20.65 at 737.65:Today settled it, last week's rally was nothing more than a corrective advance... Stocks took a beating across the board in what was the single worst session of the year... It was not so much the magnitude of the decline as it was the scope... Declining issues swamped advancers by better than a 6 to 1 margin (2329 to 375) and down volume crushed up volume by better than 9 to 1 (384 mln to 41 mln)... Historically, ratios of this ilk portend further weakness... Also alarming was the continued weakness in the DJUA... Briefing subscribers know that we were among the first to warn of the troubling divergence between the DJUA and the DJIA, as the former index peaked in mid-January while the latter index kept climbing through early March... The steady decline in the DJUA suggested that rates were headed higher and that the DJIA was in for a fall... Sure enough, rates rose and stocks fell... And it looks like it's going to get worse before it gets better, as the market leading DJUA just broke below its bull trendline... Interest sensitive index posied for test of the 204-202 range... If the DJIA were to match this move, we would be looking at a test of the 5100 area... While we aren't ready to forecast such a decline, we are sticking by our call for a test of 6200... A break of this pivotal level would earmark an intermediate-term move to the 5850 range... More bad news: there is no leadership as financial, oil and technology stocks all breaking down... Though techs have already suffered steeper declines than the broader market, and as such should fare better during the next leg lower, the inability of the sector to rebound on good earnings news suggest that additional declines are in order... But the big losers are likely to be the consumer giants which continue to trade at excessive valuation levels... General Electric, Coca-Cola, Procter & Gamble and Clorox are among stocks likely to led the blue chips lower... Lest we forget, the trigger to today's sell-off was the stronger than expected jump in the PPI core rate (+0.4%)... The retail sales figures also spooked the market... Traders took the data as a sign that the Fed would have to raise rates again at the May meeting... Bonds reacted by falling nearly a point, with the long-bond yield climbing back to 7.18%... As long as rates continue to climb, and our economists think the risk is that rates will move much higher than the street expects, stocks are likely to remain under pressure as valuation measures must be adjusted lower... Today's closing stats show NYSE volume of 444 mln shares, with 542 mln shares changing hands on the Nasdaq... DJUA fell 3.84, DJTA tumbled 43.46... The SOX index lost 6.50, as chip stocks pulled lower by Intel... The closing tick was a minus 628. ------------------------------ End of canslim Digest V1 #139 ***************************** To subscribe to canslim Digest, send the command: subscribe canslim-digest in the body of a message to "majordomo@xmission.com". If you want to subscribe something other than the account the mail is coming from, such as a local redistribution list, then append that address to the "subscribe" command; for example, to subscribe "local-canslim": subscribe canslim-digest local-canslim@your.domain.net A non-digest (direct mail) version of this list is also available; to subscribe to that instead, replace all instances of "canslim-digest" in the commands above with "canslim". Back issues are available for anonymous FTP from ftp.xmission.com, in pub/lists/canslim/archive. These are organized by date.