From: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com (canslim-digest) To: canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Subject: canslim-digest V2 #1030 Reply-To: canslim Sender: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Errors-To: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Precedence: bulk Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable X-No-Archive: yes canslim-digest Saturday, October 21 2000 Volume 02 : Number 1030 In this issue: Re: [CANSLIM] Getting close to bottom? Put/Call ratio Re: [CANSLIM] Day one? Or follow through? Re: [CANSLIM] Day one? Or follow through? Re: [CANSLIM] Day one? Or follow through? RE: [CANSLIM] Day one? Or follow through? [CANSLIM] SRDX trying to Breakout Re: [CANSLIM] Day one? Or follow through? [CANSLIM] Weekend Review...FLEX? Re: [CANSLIM] Weekend Review...FLEX? Re: [CANSLIM] Weekend Review...FLEX? [CANSLIM] "M" and Follow Through Days RE: [CANSLIM] Day one? Or follow through? [CANSLIM] Individual investor senitment... ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Date: Thu, 19 Oct 2000 21:41:13 -0700 From: "Bill Triffet" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Getting close to bottom? Put/Call ratio I do recall at the last WON seminar, he urged the importance of buying some right on the follow-thru day. The sooner the better he said. Now, I have to agree with some here that IF we have a follow-thru next week ( and find a proper b/o), I too will be cautious. I just don't have the nerve to jump in with both feet this time like I did last year. Just a gut feeling, nothing fundamental. It seemed too easy last year with all the tech breakouts. Kinda glad there was no follow-thru this week as I need the weekend to work on my watch list. (g) Given the fact I now have net access at work, I'm going to try and setup some email stock indicators thru Fidelity for next week. Should help me a bit. Some I'm looking at: EDMC ITWO SEBL MME CHKP SUNW APA We"ll see what IBD has for the Weekend Review. - -Bill - ----- Original Message ----- From: Earl Setser To: Sent: Thursday, October 19, 2000 8:25 PM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Getting close to bottom? Put/Call ratio > I think there will generally be a range of breakout times after a rally > starts to get legs. Even if it's a strong first day or two, many of the > more volatile stocks will have fallen more also. I think right now I see > more solid stocks that have a long way to go rather than stocks right at > the pivot. I do think things change somewhat over time, but I'm hopeful > that there will be good candidates over a range of time. I also feel it's > a better choice to wade in slowly, since many FT days fail. In fact, I > would guess that the higher volatility would make the FT day a less > consistent indicator if anything. > > Just my opinion, of course. > - - ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 20 Oct 2000 00:06:09 -0700 (PDT) From: Luke Lang Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Day one? Or follow through? I know that neither 10/13 nor 10/19 did the Dow and NASDAQ exceed the previous day volume. However, the tremendous moves on NASDAQ sure make today's action "FEEL" like a follow through day. What are all of your feelings about relaxing the increasing volume rule in light of the 7+ % gains in NASDAQ? Best regards, Luke Lang - --- han.26@osu.edu wrote: > haven't had time to watch the M much. Record up > day, eh? > > > - > __________________________________________________ Do You Yahoo!? Yahoo! Messenger - Talk while you surf! It's FREE. http://im.yahoo.com/ - - ------------------------------ Date: 20 Oct 2000 06:25:26 -0700 From: "Tim Fisher" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Day one? Or follow through? We are not in the 4-10 day window, therefore no followthrough. At 12:06 AM 10/20/00 -0700, you wrote: >I know that neither 10/13 nor 10/19 did the Dow and >NASDAQ exceed the previous day volume. However, the >tremendous moves on NASDAQ sure make today's action >"FEEL" like a follow through day. What are all of >your feelings about relaxing the increasing volume >rule in light of the 7+ % gains in NASDAQ? > >Best regards, >Luke Lang Tim Fisher, 1995 President, Pacific Fishery Biologists Ore-ROCK-On Rockhounding Web Site PFB Information mailto:tim@OreRockOn.com WWW http://OreRockOn.com - - ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 20 Oct 2000 09:49:12 -0400 From: asosis@ca.ibm.com Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Day one? Or follow through? LOL... In the last few emails people have been talking about making the rules more stringent: volume above ADV, etc... IMHO as that quote from HTMMIS said (I do not remember who posted it - thank you!) FTD is a "confirmation" of the bottom. In other words, this is a risk/reward issue: do you want to wait for confirmation and miss a few points or do you want to buy, accept igher risk (and, hopefully, keep a tight stop)? Your call - I do not have a buying list in order so I am out of the game till Monday. Anna Luke Lang on 10/20/2000 03:06:09 AM Please respond to canslim@lists.xmission.com To: canslim@lists.xmission.com cc: Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Day one? Or follow through? I know that neither 10/13 nor 10/19 did the Dow and NASDAQ exceed the previous day volume. However, the tremendous moves on NASDAQ sure make today's action "FEEL" like a follow through day. What are all of your feelings about relaxing the increasing volume rule in light of the 7+ % gains in NASDAQ? Best regards, Luke Lang - --- han.26@osu.edu wrote: > haven't had time to watch the M much. Record up > day, eh? > > > - > __________________________________________________ Do You Yahoo!? Yahoo! Messenger - Talk while you surf! It's FREE. http://im.yahoo.com/ - - - - ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 20 Oct 2000 11:56:38 -0400 From: "David Squires" Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] Day one? Or follow through? Hi All, If you are using the CLOSING LOW as I do, yesterday was indeed a valid and powerful 5th day follow through. However, there is little in the way of sound basing patterns of the type O'Neil would buy IMO. This has a way of changing real fast when a real FT day occurs. Three stocks I would keep an close eye are PVTL, JNIC and VRTS. DSquires > -----Original Message----- > From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com > [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of Tim Fisher > Sent: Friday, October 20, 2000 9:25 AM > To: canslim@lists.xmission.com > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Day one? Or follow through? > > > We are not in the 4-10 day window, therefore no followthrough. > > At 12:06 AM 10/20/00 -0700, you wrote: > >I know that neither 10/13 nor 10/19 did the Dow and > >NASDAQ exceed the previous day volume. However, the > >tremendous moves on NASDAQ sure make today's action > >"FEEL" like a follow through day. What are all of > >your feelings about relaxing the increasing volume > >rule in light of the 7+ % gains in NASDAQ? > > > >Best regards, > >Luke Lang > > Tim Fisher, 1995 President, Pacific Fishery Biologists > Ore-ROCK-On Rockhounding Web Site > PFB Information > mailto:tim@OreRockOn.com > WWW http://OreRockOn.com > > > - > - - ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 20 Oct 2000 09:11:29 -0700 From: Tim Fisher Subject: [CANSLIM] SRDX trying to Breakout I know, no f/t, but SRDX is acting like it wants to breakout this AM. PDII - wow, wish I had had the guts. DGX is dying from an apparently strong earnings report, and a few others that were poised to b/o are sliding after reporting (e.g. WAT). Discl: I have been in SRDX since the last b/o. Sold 1/2 position where it is now, but the other 1/2 didn't hit my stop. I still don't like M. Tim Fisher Ore-Rock-On and Pacific Fishery Biologists WWW Sites Tim@OreRockOn.com WWW: http://OreRockOn.com See naked fish and rocks! - - ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 20 Oct 2000 09:34:29 -0700 From: "Bill Triffet" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Day one? Or follow through? Today's IBD reads:" The previous rally attempt that began Oct. 13 was crushed Wednesday when the indexes sank below the day intraday low. Thursday counts as the first day for a new rally." Your mileage may very. - -Bill - ----- Original Message ----- From: "Luke Lang" To: Sent: Friday, October 20, 2000 12:06 AM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Day one? Or follow through? > I know that neither 10/13 nor 10/19 did the Dow and > NASDAQ exceed the previous day volume. However, the > tremendous moves on NASDAQ sure make today's action > "FEEL" like a follow through day. What are all of > your feelings about relaxing the increasing volume > rule in light of the 7+ % gains in NASDAQ? > > Best regards, > Luke Lang > > --- han.26@osu.edu wrote: > > haven't had time to watch the M much. Record up > > day, eh? > > > > > > - > > > > > __________________________________________________ > Do You Yahoo!? > Yahoo! Messenger - Talk while you surf! It's FREE. > http://im.yahoo.com/ > > - > > - - ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 20 Oct 2000 12:56:58 -0700 From: "Bill Triffet" Subject: [CANSLIM] Weekend Review...FLEX? It has appeared on several lists here and on today's IBD Weekend Review. Looking at the chart for FLEX I see a huge amount of recent volatility on big volume. My question is where would one want to see a b/o pivot point and when? Does one ignore the recent (huge) dip and just wait for the b/o? The chart looks ok if you overlook the dip. There are other similar charts shown today. Some have just the opposite: a large spike up with a quick return. I find these easier to look at. Some others that look decent to me are: COGN, EMS, MSS to name a few. - -Bill - - ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 20 Oct 2000 14:45:03 -0700 From: Tim Fisher Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Weekend Review...FLEX? It's certainly not on my list. It does not qualify for CANSLIM status. I booted it in May with the first big drop. (or was that the second?) Anyway if these 30% plus drops are a repeating pattern, a stock is booted from my watch lists forever. Just ask yourself if you want to be a shareholder when it falls off the next cliff... On 12:56 PM 10/20/00, Bill Triffet Said: >It has appeared on several lists here and on today's IBD Weekend Review. >Looking at the chart for FLEX I see a huge amount of recent volatility on >big volume. My question is where would one want to see a b/o pivot point and >when? Does one ignore the recent (huge) dip and just wait for the b/o? The >chart looks ok if you overlook the dip. There are other similar charts shown >today. Some have just the opposite: a large spike up with a quick return. I >find these easier to look at. >Some others that look decent to me are: COGN, EMS, MSS to name a few. > >-Bill > >- Tim Fisher Ore-Rock-On and Pacific Fishery Biologists WWW Sites Tim@OreRockOn.com WWW: http://OreRockOn.com See naked fish and rocks! - - ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 20 Oct 2000 15:50:04 -0700 From: "Bill Triffet" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Weekend Review...FLEX? Earl, That's my feeling too. I just question what IBD's trying to show us buy putting up these charts. - -Bill - ----- Original Message ----- From: "Tim Fisher" To: Sent: Friday, October 20, 2000 2:45 PM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Weekend Review...FLEX? > It's certainly not on my list. It does not qualify for CANSLIM status. I > booted it in May with the first big drop. (or was that the second?) Anyway > if these 30% plus drops are a repeating pattern, a stock is booted from my > watch lists forever. Just ask yourself if you want to be a shareholder when > it falls off the next cliff... > > On 12:56 PM 10/20/00, Bill Triffet Said: > >It has appeared on several lists here and on today's IBD Weekend Review. > >Looking at the chart for FLEX I see a huge amount of recent volatility on > >big volume. My question is where would one want to see a b/o pivot point and > >when? Does one ignore the recent (huge) dip and just wait for the b/o? The > >chart looks ok if you overlook the dip. There are other similar charts shown > >today. Some have just the opposite: a large spike up with a quick return. I > >find these easier to look at. > >Some others that look decent to me are: COGN, EMS, MSS to name a few. > > > >-Bill > > > >- > > Tim Fisher > Ore-Rock-On and Pacific Fishery Biologists WWW Sites > > Tim@OreRockOn.com > WWW: http://OreRockOn.com > See naked fish and rocks! > > > - > > - - ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 20 Oct 2000 21:53:27 -0400 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: [CANSLIM] "M" and Follow Through Days Last Monday, for me, clearly did not signal a bottom. I pick Wednesday for that. Monday did signal just how much cash was sitting on the sidelines waiting to reenter the market. Wednesday, despite closing down, both undercut virtually every prior intraday low back to late March or early April. Volume was significant, as was the recovery. Thus I count it as Day One of a rally. Next Monday becomes the fourth day, and the first possible follow thru day. Thursday and Friday signal confirmations of the bottom, both by the magnitude of the price move on Thursday, and by the volume on both days being well over avg daily volume. I am not bothered that Friday's volume was less than Thursday's, as it not only preceded a weekend, but also was way over ADV. Up Fridays are usually followed by down Mondays. Should Monday prove to be an up day, it would be bucking the usual trend, and an even stronger confirmation of the bottom and start of a rally (e.g. the FTD on the 4th day of the rally). A FTD could occur early next week, as sidelined cash continues to rush into the market, and continue a strong signal. A failure to get a FTD next week would be very negative, and signal to me a weak rally prone to failure. Earnings reports so far look good, but economic reports are not so pretty. This could halt any rally in its tracks. And politics, ranging from the latest violence between Israel and the Palestinians, to the terrorist attack on the USS COLE, to the upcoming US election, to the continuing high price of energy, could continue to weigh on the market trend. Personally, I doubt that the Feds will change anything at the November meeting even tho the election will be over by then. But the following meeting could be painful if economics continue along recent trends. That would put some serious coal in Santa Claus' stocking for the new year. I tend lately, due the extreme volatility we have been seeing, to judge trend reversals more on a weekly basis than a daily one. I am placing less importance on whether the volume or price change met specific numeric percentage gains, and trying to back off and see the start of a trend. Better to pay a few points higher and be confident I am on a steady uptrend, than to buy the bottom only to discover a nearby lower bottom. We are down so far, there is a lot of room to go up eventually. Disclosure: I invested a third of the cash (two months contributions) in my 401K on Oct 4, and the balance on last Wednesday. My IRA remains fully invested and down about 10% for the year, all in thinly traded, low priced small and micro cap stocks. So goes to show just how much I know. Between the two accts, I am roughly split between small caps and medium/large caps and both accts are all tech stocks. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net ICQ # 5568838 - - ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 20 Oct 2000 20:01:03 -0600 From: Earl Setser Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] Day one? Or follow through? I thought yesterday had lower volume??? A FT day requires "Significantly higher volume" At 11:56 AM 10/20/00 -0400, you wrote: >Hi All, > >If you are using the CLOSING LOW as I do, yesterday was indeed a valid and >powerful 5th day follow through. However, there is little in the way of >sound basing patterns of the type O'Neil would buy IMO. This has a way of >changing real fast when a real FT day occurs. Three stocks I would keep an >close eye are PVTL, JNIC and VRTS. > >DSquires > >> -----Original Message----- >> From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com >> [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of Tim Fisher >> Sent: Friday, October 20, 2000 9:25 AM >> To: canslim@lists.xmission.com >> Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Day one? Or follow through? >> >> >> We are not in the 4-10 day window, therefore no followthrough. >> >> At 12:06 AM 10/20/00 -0700, you wrote: >> >I know that neither 10/13 nor 10/19 did the Dow and >> >NASDAQ exceed the previous day volume. However, the >> >tremendous moves on NASDAQ sure make today's action >> >"FEEL" like a follow through day. What are all of >> >your feelings about relaxing the increasing volume >> >rule in light of the 7+ % gains in NASDAQ? >> > >> >Best regards, >> >Luke Lang >> >> Tim Fisher, 1995 President, Pacific Fishery Biologists >> Ore-ROCK-On Rockhounding Web Site >> PFB Information >> mailto:tim@OreRockOn.com >> WWW http://OreRockOn.com >> >> >> - >> > > >- > > > - - ------------------------------ Date: Sat, 21 Oct 2000 15:02:17 -0700 From: "Bill Triffet" Subject: [CANSLIM] Individual investor senitment... Just ran across this informal survey on my Fidelity site. Seems the average individual investor is a lot more optimistic about investing than one would think. I also wonder if the "market drops don't faze me" is as honest as the 64% indicates. Also check out how P/E still rates for investors. Also odd to me is the lack of concern for EPS. October 6, 2000 Intel falls 22% on Sept. 22, 2000, then Apple Computer slices off 52% a week later on Sept. 29. How much would one of your stocks have to lose in one day before you threw in the towel and sold? a) 0-49% 20% b) 50-89% 14% c) 90% or more 2% d) Market drops don't faze me 64% Total number of participants: 370 September 22, 2000 Do you think the Dow Jones Industrial Average will end the year higher or lower than the 11,497.12 level it started at? a) Higher 59% b) Lower 19% c) Largely unchanged (+/- 1%) 22% Total number of participants: 315 September 15, 2000 What portion of your portfolio do you have in stocks? a) 0-24% 12% b) 25-49% 13% c) 50-74% 23% d) 75-100% 52% Total number of participants: 280 September 8, 2000 When selecting a stock, which of these factors plays the biggest role in your decision? a) Earnings per share 9% b) Friend or family recommendation/advice 1% c) Current price 16% d) Past performance 27% e) Analyst recommendation 11% f) Price/earnings ratio 22% g) Other 14% Total number of participants: 157 - - ------------------------------ End of canslim-digest V2 #1030 ****************************** To unsubscribe to canslim-digest, send an email to "majordomo@xmission.com" with "unsubscribe canslim-digest" in the body of the message. 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