From: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com (canslim-digest) To: canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Subject: canslim-digest V2 #1042 Reply-To: canslim Sender: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Errors-To: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Precedence: bulk Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable X-No-Archive: yes canslim-digest Sunday, November 5 2000 Volume 02 : Number 1042 In this issue: [CANSLIM] DGO List - Part Two [none] [none] Re: [CANSLIM] Thoughts on what I'd like to see discussed on this list (or [CANSLIM] Leaders List Re: [CANSLIM] Leaders List [CANSLIM] Is $15 1/8 the correct pivot point for MTON? Re: [CANSLIM] Is $15 1/8 the correct pivot point for MTON? Re: [CANSLIM] Leaders List Re: [CANSLIM] Is $15 1/8 the correct pivot point for MTON? Re: [CANSLIM] Is $15 1/8 the correct pivot point for MTON? RE: [CANSLIM] Interesting Point from WON Re: [CANSLIM] Interesting Point from WON Re: [CANSLIM] DGO List - Part One Earnings calendar [CANSLIM] Motley Fool CANSLIM Board Re: [CANSLIM] DGO List - Part Two earnings calendar Re: [CANSLIM] Leaders List ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Date: Sun, 5 Nov 2000 08:39:02 -0500 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: [CANSLIM] DGO List - Part Two UNH - B5, b/o failed and back to the base PVA - B6+ CAH - B7 AMFH - B11 BCP - B2 PMI - B8 TGIC - B7+, vol light ABK - B4, b/o failed, back to the base CORS - B3 MFSF - B3+ NAP - base on base IBCP - B2 RGA - B3 AIND - B9, another failed b/o, back to the base COHB - B2 All in all, despite the longest list in over 14 months, most stocks on the overall list do not have constructive bases. There are few tech stocks, most are financials and home builders, with some medical and biotech. Most of the stocks show a strong recovery back to their 12 month high level from sharply depressed levels of the past two months. The next few weeks may give a clearer picture of future leadership, and base formation followed by breakouts. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net ICQ # 5568838 - - ------------------------------ Date: Sun, 05 Nov 2000 06:50:43 -0700 From: jeff.salisbury@xmission.com Subject: [none] web-mailer(34FM.0700.4.03) on Sun Nov 5 06:56:15 GMT 2000 Date: 5 Nov 00 00:56:15 CST From: Fanus To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Subject: Re: CANSLIM] Thoughts on what I'd like to see discussed on this list (or X-Mailer: USANET web-mailer (34FM.0700.4.03) Mime-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset=US-ASCII Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable Chuck Due to me still being very new to CANSLIM and still learning I do not pos= t much here. = But for what it is worth, I think you have valid reasons for the stocks y= ou mentioned. But you should keep in mind that this is a CANSLIM list. If = you do not follow the rules of CANSLIM, then you should not get offended by p= eople pointing this out to you. I am subscribed to this list to discuss CANSLI= M topics and learn from others about CANSLIM. If you have a stock picking strategy that make money, then I am very happy for you and I will follow = your recommendations on clearstation (which btw show an 18% loss on average). = But on here, if your strategy does not apply to general CANSLIM rules, frankl= y, I am not interested in it. I agree that CANSLIM is not the holy grail, but if you don't like it, don= 't use it. I am still new, but I just cannot see how one can short stocks b= ased on CANSLIM criteria. The principles will go "punt" in a down market, bec= ause they are not designed for a down market. The "M" tell you to stay out of = a down market. And CANSLIM is not about (to use your words) "going long on= everything". I think you are missing the CANSLIM concept if you think th= is is what it mean. This is just my two cents. I have nothing against you, or your strategy,= so please do not take it that way. - - Fanus - - ------------------------------ Date: Sun, 05 Nov 2000 06:51:52 -0700 From: jeff.salisbury@xmission.com Subject: [none] (8.8.8/8.7.3) with SMTP id GAA02567 for ; Sun, 5 Nov 2000 06:11:10 -0500 (EST) Message-ID: <003a01c04719$2b6d1ee0$0f02000a@txw> From: "Tom Worley" To: References: Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Thoughts on what I'd like to see discussed on this list (or Date: Sun, 5 Nov 2000 06:11:06 -0500 MIME-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit X-Priority: 3 X-MSMail-Priority: Normal X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2314.1300 X-MimeOLE: Produced By Microsoft MimeOLE V5.00.2314.1300 As Tim already pointed out, he authored the reply you refer to, not me. But I am dismissive of discussing non-CANSLIM methods in a CANSLIM group. I have tried many investment strategies over the past four decades, including bottom fishing and fallen angels. I have also invested on margin, and that shortened my time horizons also. But I participate in this group because I use CANSLIM, and that is what this group is about. Those in the group for some time know I consider CANSLIM more a philosophy than a science. One aspect I like is that it can be tailored to one's preferences. For example, I consider stocks with EPS below 80, but with RS in the 90's, so long as I can justify it to myself. But I do not post stocks I am watching or buying because they stray too far from "pure CANSLIM", as I like the challenge of small and micro cap, low priced stocks. The DGO List, which I am up early to complete, is for the group's benefit, not mine, as they are mostly over the price range I consider. I repeat the "scan" criteria every other week or so. It is a simple one: in the Daily Graph books (a WON publication), have RS and EPS of 80 or better, and at or within 5% of their 12 month high in the prior week. That is the criteria of the list I then review, and post those stocks on the list that, to me, appear to have constructive bases forming. For many years, I had no scanning capability, and appreciated the contributions of members who could produce scans of potential CANSLIM stocks. The DGO List is my payback to the group. It is simply intended to provide a list of possible candidates to watch. It is not a buy list, nor have I done any due diligence on the stocks listed. I regret your feelings were hurt, but that is the risk you take when you post off topic in a defined discussion group. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net ICQ # 5568838 - - - - ------------------------------ Date: Sun, 05 Nov 2000 11:53:51 -0700 From: Earl Setser Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Thoughts on what I'd like to see discussed on this list (or > >Tom, I suppose you mean well, but I don't think your >dismissive attitude toward anything non-CANSLIM is >well-placed. If the CANSLIM criteria were so >all-perfect, you or IBD could simply post a couple of >dozen stocks for us to pick everyday, and we'd all be >instant millionaires. And the principles wouldn't say >"punt" in a down market, which is often confirmed by >such wonderful indicators as loss of capital and total >exasperation...... The discussion of these stocks that followed is fine. However, I can't believe you would be upset that Tom pointed out these stocks generally don't meet CANSLIM criteria in his opinion. I took a quick look at the list to see if there was anything I was interested in, and I didn't see anything of interest either based on my interpretation of CANSLIM (except maybe one or two that were already on my list.) I think you HAVE TO EXPECT any stock you post to be reveiwed and compared to CANSLIM, after all, this is the CANSLIM list!! If you don't want your selections to be compared to CANSLIM, I suggest you not post them here. If you want to get discussions of specific attributes of these stocks going, then that's great. Go for it. However, I for one am very happy with my CANSLIM investment results and I am trying hard to perfect my selections based on that strategy. And that is why I find this group so helpful. - - ------------------------------ Date: Sun, 05 Nov 2000 12:04:33 -0700 From: Earl Setser Subject: [CANSLIM] Leaders List Well, here's my latest "Leaders List". I haven't posted this for some time due to bad "M". For those newer to the group, this is a list of stocks ranked 75/80 or better and industry group rank of at least "A". For this list, I removed groups below about 35th in ranking, and also removed Oil & Gas and Tobacco. For each stock, I calculate a rank based on the IBD Smart Select ratings and Sponsorship rank. The list is the top 140 or so stocks given that ranking, with the stocks in ranked order (first stock is highest, etc.) I use the list as a starting point to pick a CANSLIM watch list for the next week or so. Standard Disclaimer - I haven't yet performed any chart reviews on this list, so proceed at your own risk. I presently own KVA, COGN, LAB, and ATSN. For a great more detail on my approach to generating this list, please check the CANSLIM archives from summer 2000. PDII CPN EMLX FRX CEFT SHFL SRNA LAB PWER IMPH ADVP AMRI IFIN ITWO PROX NVR AMSGA GENZ GMST AMG SRDX CHBS TECH FII JBL CHCS PPD ACRT KEI SEBL USPH OCA JNIC CHP SKX KREM GBL CAKE MNTG SANM NRG PENN LM AMSGB RHB KG BLK MERQ PKI BMET EDMC AZA COCO ACL BRO ANF QGENF ILI CLS WLP VRTS CPS SBUX NTIQ LMRK CMNT ADBE ARXX KVA HMA COGN EXAC AVZ HOTT PATH MRX ELN RDN MER DIAN IONA AES DV AXF PMI LDP AFL ACTU TGH PPDI AFCO PHM PHCC BRCD ABK IMG ENGL SPF NHCH KBH INRS NEWP WDR SNRZ MUSE LNCR PFCB TNL FLEX MDC TARO EAT SYK RYL RJF MME MFC ACDO IGT RE AREM AAS TOL SLOT HF ESRX CAH APOL CI ADV IVX - - ------------------------------ Date: Sun, 05 Nov 2000 12:27:49 -0800 From: Dan Cash Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Leaders List Do you place any importance to the order of your list? Thanks for it, Dan Earl Setser wrote: > Well, here's my latest "Leaders List". I haven't posted this for some time > due to bad "M". > > For those newer to the group, this is a list of stocks ranked 75/80 or > better and industry group rank of at least "A". For this list, I removed > groups below about 35th in ranking, and also removed Oil & Gas and Tobacco. > For each stock, I calculate a rank based on the IBD Smart Select ratings > and Sponsorship rank. The list is the top 140 or so stocks given that > ranking, with the stocks in ranked order (first stock is highest, etc.) I > use the list as a starting point to pick a CANSLIM watch list for the next > week or so. > > Standard Disclaimer - I haven't yet performed any chart reviews on this > list, so proceed at your own risk. I presently own KVA, COGN, LAB, and ATSN. > > For a great more detail on my approach to generating this list, please > check the CANSLIM archives from summer 2000. > > PDII > CPN > EMLX > FRX > CEFT > SHFL > SRNA > LAB > PWER > IMPH > ADVP > AMRI > IFIN > ITWO > PROX > NVR > AMSGA > GENZ > GMST > AMG > SRDX > CHBS > TECH > FII > JBL > CHCS > PPD > ACRT > KEI > SEBL > USPH > OCA > JNIC > CHP > SKX > KREM > GBL > CAKE > MNTG > SANM > NRG > PENN > LM > AMSGB > RHB > KG > BLK > MERQ > PKI > BMET > EDMC > AZA > COCO > ACL > BRO > ANF > QGENF > ILI > CLS > WLP > VRTS > CPS > SBUX > NTIQ > LMRK > CMNT > ADBE > ARXX > KVA > HMA > COGN > EXAC > AVZ > HOTT > PATH > MRX > ELN > RDN > MER > DIAN > IONA > AES > DV > AXF > PMI > LDP > AFL > ACTU > TGH > PPDI > AFCO > PHM > PHCC > BRCD > ABK > IMG > ENGL > SPF > NHCH > KBH > INRS > NEWP > WDR > SNRZ > MUSE > LNCR > PFCB > TNL > FLEX > MDC > TARO > EAT > SYK > RYL > RJF > MME > MFC > ACDO > IGT > RE > AREM > AAS > TOL > SLOT > HF > ESRX > CAH > APOL > CI > ADV > IVX > > - - - ------------------------------ Date: Sun, 5 Nov 2000 12:42:13 -0800 From: "Ian" Subject: [CANSLIM] Is $15 1/8 the correct pivot point for MTON? Hi all: My first post to the board. I am trying to determine the correct pivot point for Metro One (MTON). IMHO, they meet the CANSLIM criteria, and I am looking for the pivot point where I will add shares. I think $15 1/8 is correct. Opinions? Thanks. What other micro-caps are people watching for breakouts? Ian - - ------------------------------ Date: Sun, 5 Nov 2000 18:00:37 -0500 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Is $15 1/8 the correct pivot point for MTON? Hi Ian, Welcome to the group, hope you post more in the future. There are several things that argue against this being a quality CANSLIM stock. First, RS of 74 puts it below the 80 threshold, tho still worth watching. Second, more significantly, the group RS is only 4. With its RS, it is also well out of the top five in its already low group. ROE of 8% also weighs against it, however its current earnings and revenue growth is spectacular. It is also well ahead of the forecast for this year of 210% earnings growth, and on track to drive up next year's 44% growth forecast. I read the chart as a cup with the handle forming around 14. Given that, if the handle continues to form around 14-14.25, I would be inclined to act on a volume driven breakout in the mid 14 range rather than waiting for the new high at 15.125. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net ICQ # 5568838 - ----- Original Message ----- From: Ian To: Sent: Sunday, November 05, 2000 3:42 PM Subject: [CANSLIM] Is $15 1/8 the correct pivot point for MTON? Hi all: My first post to the board. I am trying to determine the correct pivot point for Metro One (MTON). IMHO, they meet the CANSLIM criteria, and I am looking for the pivot point where I will add shares. I think $15 1/8 is correct. Opinions? Thanks. What other micro-caps are people watching for breakouts? Ian - - - - ------------------------------ Date: Sun, 05 Nov 2000 16:06:45 -0700 From: Earl Setser Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Leaders List The list is ordered by calculated rank. Based on this, the top stocks generally have rankings at least close to 99/99/AAA and A sponsorship. As you go down the list, the ranks fall. I try to select enough industry groups to have 175-250 stocks to start with. I don't have time to update data on more stocks, and I prefer to add strong stocks from slightly lower ranked industry groups rather than the first 100 stocks from the strongest groups. Overall, my goal of using 100-150 or so (about 130 this week) is to keep only those with the strongest ratings. My thought is that any stock on the list has very strong CANSLIM attributes, and is a good candidate. And generally, I look at any stock on the list with a good chart as a good buy candidate. I do use DGO to look at the earnings growth rates, trends, etc. to get more information before making a purchase/ However, to get back to your question - with all else being equal, I prefer stocks higher on the list rather than lower. I feel that a 95/95 stock ready to break out probably has a better shot at success than another stock at 85/85 with a similar chart. I also like to pick the stocks in the stronger industry group if I have a choice of stocks with nice charts. In fact, some of my lists last year included Industry Group rank in the equation. I've removed that portion since then as I've found the week to week rankings sometimes change quickly, and I can use the overall rank as another input to my picks. At 12:27 PM 11/5/00 -0800, you wrote: >Do you place any importance to the order of your list? > >Thanks for it, >Dan > >Earl Setser wrote: > >> Well, here's my latest "Leaders List". I haven't posted this for some time >> due to bad "M". >> >> For those newer to the group, this is a list of stocks ranked 75/80 or >> better and industry group rank of at least "A". For this list, I removed >> groups below about 35th in ranking, and also removed Oil & Gas and Tobacco. >> For each stock, I calculate a rank based on the IBD Smart Select ratings >> and Sponsorship rank. The list is the top 140 or so stocks given that >> ranking, with the stocks in ranked order (first stock is highest, etc.) I >> use the list as a starting point to pick a CANSLIM watch list for the next >> week or so. >> >> Standard Disclaimer - I haven't yet performed any chart reviews on this >> list, so proceed at your own risk. I presently own KVA, COGN, LAB, and ATSN. >> >> For a great more detail on my approach to generating this list, please >> check the CANSLIM archives from summer 2000. >> >> PDII >> CPN >> EMLX >> FRX >> CEFT >> SHFL >> SRNA >> LAB >> PWER >> IMPH >> ADVP >> AMRI >> IFIN >> ITWO >> PROX >> NVR >> AMSGA >> GENZ >> GMST >> AMG >> SRDX >> CHBS >> TECH >> FII >> JBL >> CHCS >> PPD >> ACRT >> KEI >> SEBL >> USPH >> OCA >> JNIC >> CHP >> SKX >> KREM >> GBL >> CAKE >> MNTG >> SANM >> NRG >> PENN >> LM >> AMSGB >> RHB >> KG >> BLK >> MERQ >> PKI >> BMET >> EDMC >> AZA >> COCO >> ACL >> BRO >> ANF >> QGENF >> ILI >> CLS >> WLP >> VRTS >> CPS >> SBUX >> NTIQ >> LMRK >> CMNT >> ADBE >> ARXX >> KVA >> HMA >> COGN >> EXAC >> AVZ >> HOTT >> PATH >> MRX >> ELN >> RDN >> MER >> DIAN >> IONA >> AES >> DV >> AXF >> PMI >> LDP >> AFL >> ACTU >> TGH >> PPDI >> AFCO >> PHM >> PHCC >> BRCD >> ABK >> IMG >> ENGL >> SPF >> NHCH >> KBH >> INRS >> NEWP >> WDR >> SNRZ >> MUSE >> LNCR >> PFCB >> TNL >> FLEX >> MDC >> TARO >> EAT >> SYK >> RYL >> RJF >> MME >> MFC >> ACDO >> IGT >> RE >> AREM >> AAS >> TOL >> SLOT >> HF >> ESRX >> CAH >> APOL >> CI >> ADV >> IVX >> >> - > > >- > > > - - ------------------------------ Date: Sun, 05 Nov 2000 16:17:08 -0700 From: Earl Setser Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Is $15 1/8 the correct pivot point for MTON? You should probably look at Tom's list for microcaps. Maybe he has a few he hasn't put on his lists. As far as the pivot, I think you have picked the correct pivot for the recent action, but you need to look further back to get an accurate pivot if you want to include that action. I generally use closing numbers rounded to the nearest .25, so I get 15 from that approach also. However, that isn't what I would use. From a long term standpoint, the stock marked a closing high on 9/20/99 at 19.63 and high an all time high of 20 on the following day. If you use 52 week numbers, you get a closing high of 16.38 and 52 week high of 16.81, both on 2/9/00. Based on these, I would probably use the 52 week high and set the pivot at 16.5 (closing basis). The best thing would be to get another pivot based on a handle, but I don't see one forming on this one right now. At 12:42 PM 11/5/00 -0800, you wrote: >Hi all: > >My first post to the board. I am trying to determine the correct pivot point >for Metro One (MTON). IMHO, they meet the CANSLIM criteria, and I am looking >for the pivot point where I will add shares. I think $15 1/8 is correct. >Opinions? Thanks. > >What other micro-caps are people watching for breakouts? > >Ian > > >- > > > - - ------------------------------ Date: Sun, 5 Nov 2000 18:37:19 -0500 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Is $15 1/8 the correct pivot point for MTON? Earl, by "Tom's list" I am assuming you mean the DGO List I post weekly, since that is the only list I post. It is not, by any definition, a "microcap" list. It is drawn from mainstream Daily Graphs stocks. I do not post microcap or small cap lists as they are outside mainstream CANSLIM, and suitable only for high risk, experienced investors who like extra challenges. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net ICQ # 5568838 - ----- Original Message ----- From: Earl Setser To: Sent: Sunday, November 05, 2000 6:17 PM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Is $15 1/8 the correct pivot point for MTON? You should probably look at Tom's list for microcaps. Maybe he has a few he hasn't put on his lists. As far as the pivot, I think you have picked the correct pivot for the recent action, but you need to look further back to get an accurate pivot if you want to include that action. I generally use closing numbers rounded to the nearest .25, so I get 15 from that approach also. However, that isn't what I would use. >From a long term standpoint, the stock marked a closing high on 9/20/99 at 19.63 and high an all time high of 20 on the following day. If you use 52 week numbers, you get a closing high of 16.38 and 52 week high of 16.81, both on 2/9/00. Based on these, I would probably use the 52 week high and set the pivot at 16.5 (closing basis). The best thing would be to get another pivot based on a handle, but I don't see one forming on this one right now. At 12:42 PM 11/5/00 -0800, you wrote: >Hi all: > >My first post to the board. I am trying to determine the correct pivot point >for Metro One (MTON). IMHO, they meet the CANSLIM criteria, and I am looking >for the pivot point where I will add shares. I think $15 1/8 is correct. >Opinions? Thanks. > >What other micro-caps are people watching for breakouts? > >Ian > > >- > > > - - - - ------------------------------ Date: Sun, 5 Nov 2000 20:35:37 -0500 From: "David Squires" Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] Interesting Point from WON Hi Tim, My statement does not refer to the economic cycle but an intermediate term rally cycle, usually 6-9 months. The ensuing correction could certainly have some rotation but it will always be the high growth leaders that perform the best. These days I am rarely interested in the 25% profit candidates. I want 3 to 5 unquestioned leadership stocks and that is solely what I focus on. As of Friday afternoon I have not found any such candidates that also have the correct base structure. I think the original statement that WON made clearly stresses that. Direction is go but leaders are building the right sides of their cups. As for data to back it up?.... the 13 week number has been highlighted in Kevin Marder's and Greg Kuhn's columns many times and they are very close to the WON organization. Most know of Marder's great commentary. Kuhn runs a hedge fund using WON's principals nearly to the letter. So that is enough evidence for me. Lastly, I wasn't suggesting that slower growth companies start rallies. What I am saying is in this instance that is really all that is setting up and those are not the stocks that have CSCO type moves. As I'm sure you know the 98 bottom set-up with scores of VERY high growth companies breaking out. That was a SCREAMING signal to back up the truck. I guess my point is, it is a matter of degree. If dynamic leadership groups are setting up and breaking out on the follow through day I am fully margined in a matter of hours in some cases. In this case the only potential leadership group working is biotech and many of the bases are sloppy. So I just wait. If this is a sound follow through day the bases will show up rather quickly. Good Trading, DSquires > -----Original Message----- > From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com > [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of Tim Fisher > Sent: Friday, November 03, 2000 1:02 PM > To: canslim@lists.xmission.com > Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] Interesting Point from WON > > > This is an interesting assertion. have any data to back it up? Do rallies > really start with slower growth companies? My impression has been that > sectors rotate throughout a rally and the growth you observe as the rally > matures is simply an artifact of the fact that a rally is driving prices, > performance, the economy,and thus EPS. > > On 06:22 AM 11/3/00, David Squires Said: > > >The 1-13 week time frame is based on WON's study of many bull > market cycles. > >In his study he found that quality leadership names will clear > sound bases > >for up to 13 weeks after the low. This is why you can sit and > wait for the > >real high growth leaders rather than slower growth names that set-up. > > > >DSquires > > > > > -----Original Message----- > > > From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com > > > [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of Earl Setser > > > Sent: Friday, November 03, 2000 8:40 AM > > > To: canslim@xmission.com > > > Cc: steven.e.mlaker@l-3com.com > > > Subject: [CANSLIM] Interesting Point from WON > > > > > > > > > Here is an interesting tidbit from WON from the IBD website. > > > > > > > > > "Question: The Dow and the Nasdaq have both had "follow through" > > > days. Will > > > this potential rally falter with the lack of sound base patterns from > > > quality companies? > > > > > > > > > - Submitted from > > > Durham, N.C. > > > > > > > > > > > > WON's Answer: Not necessarily. Now that you have had a > follow-through, the > > > only thing you know is that the market has now signaled its change of > > > direction. If you don't see any quality stocks breaking out > of sound bases > > > on strong volume, then you don't buy anything. If the > follow-through is > > > "for real" and the market continues in a rally phase, you > should begin to > > > see quality stocks begin to break out of sound bases anywhere > from one to > > > 13 weeks after the follow-through day. It's possible that > right now the > > > potential leaders are building the right sides of their cups > or other base > > > patterns and will break out at some point a few weeks later. The > > > good thing > > > is that you don't have to know what the market is going to do. > > > And if there > > > are no breakouts occurring, then you will naturally not get > sucked into a > > > potentially failing follow-through. " > > > > > > > > > Anyone else ever see the 1 to 13 week timeframe for quality > breakouts to > > > start? This was a new one for me, but I think it makes > sense. After an > > > extended down period, even the new leaders could have been beaten down > > > enough that the right side of the cup could take weeks or > longer to form. > > > > > > - > > > > > > > > > > > >- > > Tim Fisher > Ore-Rock-On and Pacific Fishery Biologists WWW Sites > > Tim@OreRockOn.com > WWW: http://OreRockOn.com > See naked fish and rocks! > > > - > - - ------------------------------ Date: Sun, 05 Nov 2000 19:49:37 -0600 From: Kent Norman Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Interesting Point from WON Congratulations! my hat is off to you. Tom Worley wrote: > > As a rule, I do not buy any stocks I am not willing to own long > term (defined for me as a year or longer). I am not trading on > margin any more, but if I was the minimum would be three months. > > Currently, 4 of my 5 holdings have been held for over a year. > That is not a function of good adherence to CANSLIM, just the > opposite as I should have exited all of them. Sheer lack of time > due extremely long work hours and exhaustion led to inaction as I > could not follow my personal methodology and application of > CANSLIM. The one stock that is under 1 year is EPIQ, which I am > on my fourth ownership in just over two years, yielding 70%, 20%, > 30% the first three times and currently up 50% on the present > ownership (closer attention and I would have recently sold up > 80%). > > Generally speaking, I do not sell unless fundamentals > deteriorate. Since I no longer must generate an income from my > investments, I am more tolerant of dips and pullbacks. > > Tom Worley > stkguru@netside.net > ICQ # 5568838 > > ----- Original Message ----- > From: Kent Norman > To: > Sent: Saturday, November 04, 2000 8:04 PM > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Interesting Point from WON > > Thanks > > I guess that is what I have been doing wrong, following the > herd - or is > it "heard"? > > Just out of curiosity - approximately how long do you hold an > average > stock? > > Kent > > Tom Worley wrote: > > > > Probably true if all you consider are high volume stocks that > > institutionals like. Since I only focus on small and micro cap > > stocks where the institutionals are less likely to play, I tend > > to get in ahead of them. > > > > But CANSLIM is a method of decision making independent of what > > the institutionals are doing. Used properly, it permits you to > be > > in the stock before the rest of the "herd" follows suit. Done > > right, you already own the stock prior to the "herd" beginning > to > > chase it. > > > > Tom Worley > > stkguru@netside.net > > ICQ # 5568838 > > > > ----- Original Message ----- > > From: Kent Norman > > To: > > Sent: Saturday, November 04, 2000 6:29 PM > > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Interesting Point from WON > > > > Tom > > > > Isn't this effectively what CANSLIM does? Wait for high volume > > breakout > > caused by institutions and then jump on board? > > > > Thanks > > Kent > > > > Tom Worley wrote: > > > > > > Hi Tim, > > > > > > You should reread the piece again, it does not say the rally > > > starts with slow growth companies, just that it can, as it > > seems > > > to be doing here. > > > > > > I also don't think sector rotation is so much an artifact as > it > > > is symptomatic of "herd mentality" among the institutional > > > managers, all competing to be better than the next one. So > the > > > upstarts tend to chase the purchasing and selling of the ones > > > with established reputations, without having their own > > > methodology and decision making. > > > > > > Tom Worley > > > stkguru@netside.net > > > ICQ # 5568838 > > > > > > ----- Original Message ----- > > > From: Tim Fisher > > > To: > > > Sent: Friday, November 03, 2000 1:01 PM > > > Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] Interesting Point from WON > > > > > > This is an interesting assertion. have any data to back it > up? > > Do > > > rallies > > > really start with slower growth companies? My impression has > > been > > > that > > > sectors rotate throughout a rally and the growth you observe > as > > > the rally > > > matures is simply an artifact of the fact that a rally is > > driving > > > prices, > > > performance, the economy,and thus EPS. > > > > > > On 06:22 AM 11/3/00, David Squires Said: > > > > > > >The 1-13 week time frame is based on WON's study of many > bull > > > market cycles. > > > >In his study he found that quality leadership names will > clear > > > sound bases > > > >for up to 13 weeks after the low. This is why you can sit > and > > > wait for the > > > >real high growth leaders rather than slower growth names > that > > > set-up. > > > > > > > >DSquires > > > > > > > > > -----Original Message----- > > > > > From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com > > > > > [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of > Earl > > > Setser > > > > > Sent: Friday, November 03, 2000 8:40 AM > > > > > To: canslim@xmission.com > > > > > Cc: steven.e.mlaker@l-3com.com > > > > > Subject: [CANSLIM] Interesting Point from WON > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Here is an interesting tidbit from WON from the IBD > > website. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > "Question: The Dow and the Nasdaq have both had "follow > > > through" > > > > > days. Will > > > > > this potential rally falter with the lack of sound base > > > patterns from > > > > > quality companies? > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > - Submitted > > from > > > > > Durham, N.C. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > WON's Answer: Not necessarily. Now that you have had a > > > follow-through, the > > > > > only thing you know is that the market has now signaled > its > > > change of > > > > > direction. If you don't see any quality stocks breaking > out > > > of sound bases > > > > > on strong volume, then you don't buy anything. If the > > > follow-through is > > > > > "for real" and the market continues in a rally phase, you > > > should begin to > > > > > see quality stocks begin to break out of sound bases > > anywhere > > > from one to > > > > > 13 weeks after the follow-through day. It's possible that > > > right now the > > > > > potential leaders are building the right sides of their > > cups > > > or other base > > > > > patterns and will break out at some point a few weeks > > later. > > > The > > > > > good thing > > > > > is that you don't have to know what the market is going > to > > > do. > > > > > And if there > > > > > are no breakouts occurring, then you will naturally not > get > > > sucked into a > > > > > potentially failing follow-through. " > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Anyone else ever see the 1 to 13 week timeframe for > quality > > > breakouts to > > > > > start? This was a new one for me, but I think it makes > > > sense. After an > > > > > extended down period, even the new leaders could have bee > n > > > beaten down > > > > > enough that the right side of the cup could take weeks or > > > longer to form. > > > > > > > > > > - > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > >- > > > > > > Tim Fisher > > > Ore-Rock-On and Pacific Fishery Biologists WWW Sites > > > > > > Tim@OreRockOn.com > > > WWW: http://OreRockOn.com > > > See naked fish and rocks! > > > > > > - > > > > > > - > > > > - > > > > - > > - > > - - - ------------------------------ Date: Sun, 05 Nov 2000 21:44:26 -0600 From: Kent Norman Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] DGO List - Part One Earnings calendar Earnings dates from excite.com (right column) SRNA 11/13/2000 CEFT 02/09/2001 FRX 01/16/2001 DST 01/25/2001 CANI 12/05/2000 BELFB n/a PHM 01/19/2001 KVA symbol not found PLMD 01/16/2001 USPH n/a MDC 01/15/2001 ACXM 01/22/2001 PENN 02/14/2001 PKI 01/25/2001 ACL 02/14/2001 Kent Tom Worley wrote: > > Overall, there were 251 stocks on the list this week from the DG > books, having both RS and EPS of 80 or better, and at or within > 5% of their 12 month highs. I was interested in how this > compares historically, and was surprised that this is the largest > list since at least August 1999. This is also a sharp 25% > expansion from last week's total. May not mean anything, and > won't know till I look at the charts, but suggests the > possibility of "M" being a lot healthier than I imagined. > Constructive bases, and quality of leadership, will be key. For > prior weeks, the total was 201, 176, 153 and 226. > > As always, my shorthand is Bx where "B" means a base of "x" weeks > duration, IMO. > > SRNA - B2 > CEFT - LLUR ?? > FRX - B2 > DST - possible handle forming > CANI - B2 handle on a small cup > BELFA/BELFB - possible handle forming > PHM - nice cup, possible handle forming > KVA - holding a B2 on lite vol > PLMD - B2 > USPH - B1+ > MDC - B5 > ACXM - B2 > PENN - B4 > PKI - B1+ > ACL - B2+ > > Tom Worley > stkguru@netside.net > ICQ # 5568838 > > - - - ------------------------------ Date: Sun, 5 Nov 2000 22:50:52 -0800 From: "Ed Wile" Subject: [CANSLIM] Motley Fool CANSLIM Board I've posted this before, but it bears repeating. The discussion on the CANSLIM board at The Motley Fool web site (www.fool.com) is of the highest quality. To me it's essentially an ongoing class in investing. The board is run by a guy who calls himself Db and he has a CANSLIM web site, with a reading list (I've finished the first two books, WON's How to Make MITSM... and Stan Weinstein's Profiting in Bull and Bear MArkets...a must read imho) The reading list is 10 or 11 books long. Db is a bit harsh and he teaches mostly by socratic method, but he does teach and reading that board daily has been a great education for me. I really think that alot of the members of this list would like it alot! Ed - - ------------------------------ Date: Sun, 05 Nov 2000 21:51:21 -0600 From: Kent Norman Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] DGO List - Part Two earnings calendar Earnings dates from excite.com (right column) UNH 02/08/2001 PVA 02/14/2001 CAH 01/23/2001 AMFH n/a BCP 02/05/2001 PMI 01/24/2001 TGIC 01/17/2001 ABK 01/24/2001 CORS 01/25/2001 MFSF n/a NAP 01/16/2001 IBCP 01/18/2001 RGA 01/25/2001 AIND 02/07/2001 COHB 01/18/2001 Kent Tom Worley wrote: > > UNH - B5, b/o failed and back to the base > PVA - B6+ > CAH - B7 > AMFH - B11 > BCP - B2 > PMI - B8 > TGIC - B7+, vol light > ABK - B4, b/o failed, back to the base > CORS - B3 > MFSF - B3+ > NAP - base on base > IBCP - B2 > RGA - B3 > AIND - B9, another failed b/o, back to the base > COHB - B2 > > All in all, despite the longest list in over 14 months, most > stocks on the overall list do not have constructive bases. There > are few tech stocks, most are financials and home builders, with > some medical and biotech. Most of the stocks show a strong > recovery back to their 12 month high level from sharply depressed > levels of the past two months. The next few weeks may give a > clearer picture of future leadership, and base formation followed > by breakouts. > > Tom Worley > stkguru@netside.net > ICQ # 5568838 > > - - - ------------------------------ Date: Sun, 05 Nov 2000 20:21:07 -0800 From: Dan Cash Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Leaders List Thank you for your explanation, Earl. Dan Earl Setser wrote: > The list is ordered by calculated rank. Based on this, the top stocks > generally have rankings at least close to 99/99/AAA and A sponsorship. As > you go down the list, the ranks fall. I try to select enough industry > groups to have 175-250 stocks to start with. I don't have time to update > data on more stocks, and I prefer to add strong stocks from slightly lower > ranked industry groups rather than the first 100 stocks from the strongest > groups. Overall, my goal of using 100-150 or so (about 130 this week) is > to keep only those with the strongest ratings. My thought is that any > stock on the list has very strong CANSLIM attributes, and is a good > candidate. And generally, I look at any stock on the list with a good > chart as a good buy candidate. I do use DGO to look at the earnings growth > rates, trends, etc. to get more information before making a purchase/ > > However, to get back to your question - with all else being equal, I prefer > stocks higher on the list rather than lower. I feel that a 95/95 stock > ready to break out probably has a better shot at success than another stock > at 85/85 with a similar chart. I also like to pick the stocks in the > stronger industry group if I have a choice of stocks with nice charts. In > fact, some of my lists last year included Industry Group rank in the > equation. I've removed that portion since then as I've found the week to > week rankings sometimes change quickly, and I can use the overall rank as > another input to my picks. > > At 12:27 PM 11/5/00 -0800, you wrote: > >Do you place any importance to the order of your list? > > > >Thanks for it, > >Dan > > > >Earl Setser wrote: > > > >> Well, here's my latest "Leaders List". I haven't posted this for some time > >> due to bad "M". > >> > >> For those newer to the group, this is a list of stocks ranked 75/80 or > >> better and industry group rank of at least "A". For this list, I removed > >> groups below about 35th in ranking, and also removed Oil & Gas and Tobacco. > >> For each stock, I calculate a rank based on the IBD Smart Select ratings > >> and Sponsorship rank. The list is the top 140 or so stocks given that > >> ranking, with the stocks in ranked order (first stock is highest, etc.) I > >> use the list as a starting point to pick a CANSLIM watch list for the next > >> week or so. > >> > >> Standard Disclaimer - I haven't yet performed any chart reviews on this > >> list, so proceed at your own risk. I presently own KVA, COGN, LAB, and > ATSN. > >> > >> For a great more detail on my approach to generating this list, please > >> check the CANSLIM archives from summer 2000. > >> > >> PDII > >> CPN > >> EMLX > >> FRX > >> CEFT > >> SHFL > >> SRNA > >> LAB > >> PWER > >> IMPH > >> ADVP > >> AMRI > >> IFIN > >> ITWO > >> PROX > >> NVR > >> AMSGA > >> GENZ > >> GMST > >> AMG > >> SRDX > >> CHBS > >> TECH > >> FII > >> JBL > >> CHCS > >> PPD > >> ACRT > >> KEI > >> SEBL > >> USPH > >> OCA > >> JNIC > >> CHP > >> SKX > >> KREM > >> GBL > >> CAKE > >> MNTG > >> SANM > >> NRG > >> PENN > >> LM > >> AMSGB > >> RHB > >> KG > >> BLK > >> MERQ > >> PKI > >> BMET > >> EDMC > >> AZA > >> COCO > >> ACL > >> BRO > >> ANF > >> QGENF > >> ILI > >> CLS > >> WLP > >> VRTS > >> CPS > >> SBUX > >> NTIQ > >> LMRK > >> CMNT > >> ADBE > >> ARXX > >> KVA > >> HMA > >> COGN > >> EXAC > >> AVZ > >> HOTT > >> PATH > >> MRX > >> ELN > >> RDN > >> MER > >> DIAN > >> IONA > >> AES > >> DV > >> AXF > >> PMI > >> LDP > >> AFL > >> ACTU > >> TGH > >> PPDI > >> AFCO > >> PHM > >> PHCC > >> BRCD > >> ABK > >> IMG > >> ENGL > >> SPF > >> NHCH > >> KBH > >> INRS > >> NEWP > >> WDR > >> SNRZ > >> MUSE > >> LNCR > >> PFCB > >> TNL > >> FLEX > >> MDC > >> TARO > >> EAT > >> SYK > >> RYL > >> RJF > >> MME > >> MFC > >> ACDO > >> IGT > >> RE > >> AREM > >> AAS > >> TOL > >> SLOT > >> HF > >> ESRX > >> CAH > >> APOL > >> CI > >> ADV > >> IVX > >> > >> - > > > > > >- > > > > > > > > - - - ------------------------------ End of canslim-digest V2 #1042 ****************************** To unsubscribe to canslim-digest, send an email to "majordomo@xmission.com" with "unsubscribe canslim-digest" in the body of the message. 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