From: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com (canslim-digest) To: canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Subject: canslim-digest V2 #1068 Reply-To: canslim Sender: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Errors-To: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Precedence: bulk Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable X-No-Archive: yes canslim-digest Sunday, December 17 2000 Volume 02 : Number 1068 In this issue: [CANSLIM] I was hoping that Santa exists Re: [CANSLIM] Rally fizzling? Re: [CANSLIM] There goes another rally - busted!!! Re: [CANSLIM] Rally fizzling? Re: [CANSLIM] I was hoping that Santa exists Re: [CANSLIM] I was hoping that Santa exists [CANSLIM] P.S. [CANSLIM] Fwd: Web Site Updated Re: [CANSLIM] There goes another rally - busted!!! [CANSLIM] DGO List ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Date: Fri, 15 Dec 2000 21:34:26 -0800 From: "Behdad Forghani" Subject: [CANSLIM] I was hoping that Santa exists Hi, Traditionally, December is supposed to be the best month of the year and usually Santa shows up before Christmass. He has only one more week to show up. But, it seems that Grinch has stolen this Christmass. I noticed that good news now leads to some stocks going higher. I bought Verity today and it is up %10. Maybe, the bears will have the last laugh. I also bought some Oracle because of the good earning news and the fact that e-business and IT spending are growing despite the common misconception caused by concept dot com companies. Oracle is up 3.8% (I paid higher than the closing price). IMHO, today's selling was not as bad as the rest of the week. NYSE advance/decline was almost 40-48 and it was 30-54 for Nasdaq. Also, Nasdaq did not close near the bottom but half way between. At the risk of making a fool of myself, I think that the sell-off is losing its power even if it is not over. I hope for good news from the Fed meeting on Tuesday. Although, I run the risk of disappointment and a bigger brokerage fee, I have started to buy a bit of what I consider good, financially strong beaten down tech-stocks and just dollar cost average over the next couple of months. I am convinced that good non-pc related tech stocks will double their value by next December. I know that this is not Canslim investing. But, as we all know Canslim is not for bear markets. Regards, Behdad - - ------------------------------ Date: Sat, 16 Dec 2000 06:52:59 +0000 (GMT) From: musicant@pacbell.net (Dan Musicant) Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Rally fizzling? On Fri, 15 Dec 2000 22:20:57 -0700, you wrote: :Dan, IBD is listening!! Check out tomorrow's Investor Corner for some :notes on how to survive these failure-prone rallies. You can find it at :the website now. Thanks. I'll check it out. The one thing I almost never fail to read is the Big Picture. I always have a look at the Investor Corner too.=20 Just checked out the website. They actually have Monday's Big Picture. They didn't used to post that article. Will read both now... The BigPic: http://www.investors.com/editorial/bigpic.asp - - ------------------------------ Date: Sat, 16 Dec 2000 07:20:35 +0000 (GMT) From: musicant@pacbell.net (Dan Musicant) Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] There goes another rally - busted!!! On Fri, 15 Dec 2000 21:41:53 -0600, you wrote: :Dan :Perhaps a sample size of 4 is not significant? Probably over many years = you will see the 80%? : :Kent I have seen WON at seminars a couple of times and in my heart I know that he is an honorable man and not a liar. I believe him when he says that it's 80%. I think we are in a period in which the system does not do well. In an actual bear market his rally and confirmation criteria don't work as often as they do when we are experiencing corrections in a bull market. What we are looking for is an end to the bear, and that's a different thing than the end of a correction. I don't know if this is accurate, but it sounds reasonable to me. - - ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 15 Dec 2000 23:58:05 -0800 From: Dan Cash Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Rally fizzling? But does it not seem logical that all these "confirmed rallies" are bound to fail by definition, if we are in fact, in a bear market, and that they will continue to fail until there has been a bottom in place. It seems to me that the indices are not at a bottom. The dow looks to be adrift: one can draw a line through the middle of the chart beginning about 4-16-99 to the present and split the formation, the oex is in a quite nice down trend after finishing the formation of a double top on 3-25 and 9-1 approx. and if the current level does not offer support looks to go to 650, 610, even 581. Who knows? Can it? Nobody seems to be comfortable with their abilities to drop to these levels. And the Nasdaq: It put in a quite nice double top awhile back, and is in a pretty definite downward channel, at least that is how it looks to me. There is some descent support here, and if this fails, nothing to keep it from going to approx. 2000. I have not looked at an advance decline line in quite some time, but I'll bet it is of a beautiful upper left, lower right depiction. MACD's all: great ski slopes. And its histograms have reversed yet again on the weekly level. I just cannot find the pony anywhere. I wish I had been actively looking for shorts. But the bright spot here is I don't think it is too late. Is the chart formation for a short, a cap and bill? Dan Continuing to successfully recover from the territorial expansion of a mutant clone. Dan Musicant wrote: > Please correct me if I'm wrong, but it's my impression that we have had > several "confirmed" rallies this year (according to WON's criteria) that > have failed. WON maintains that confirmed rallies succeed 80% of the > time, so that would suggest that market conditions this year are somehow > different than "normal" and very significantly. Can someone speak to > this? > > According to IBD's Big Picture today, the Nasdaq rally is still in > effect. However, the action I've been seeing does not inspire confidence > in me to lay out positions. > > - - - ------------------------------ Date: Sat, 16 Dec 2000 11:00:14 +0100 From: Werner Vandewiele Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] I was hoping that Santa exists >I know that this is not Canslim investing. But, as we all >know Canslim is not for bear markets. Why then is William O'Neil's book titled: 'How to Make Money in Stock' A Winning System in Good Times or Bad ? I suggest you go to the Index of the book and look up Bear markets. Regards, <<< Werner Vandewiele >>> - - ------------------------------ Date: 16 Dec 2000 06:54:03 -0800 From: "Tim Fisher" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] I was hoping that Santa exists My trader friend at work is salivating over the next two weeks. He bought a palm so he can trade on Schwab from his family's vacation home in Myrtle Beach. He is convinced there will be a light-volume, day trader-driven rally that will fail after the pros get back from vacation next year. FWIW. At 09:34 PM 12/15/00 -0800, you wrote: >Hi, > >Traditionally, December is supposed to be the best month of the year and >usually Santa shows up before Christmass. He has only one more week to show >up. But, it seems that Grinch has stolen this Christmass. > >I noticed that good news now leads to some stocks going higher. I bought >Verity today and it is up %10. Maybe, the bears will have the last laugh. I >also bought some Oracle because of the good earning news and the fact that >e-business and IT spending are growing despite the common misconception >caused by concept dot com companies. Oracle is up 3.8% (I paid higher than >the closing price). > > IMHO, today's selling was not as bad as the rest of the week. NYSE >advance/decline was almost 40-48 and it was 30-54 for Nasdaq. Also, Nasdaq >did not close near the bottom but half way between. At the risk of making a >fool of myself, I think that the sell-off is losing its power even if it is >not over. I hope for good news from the Fed meeting on Tuesday. Although, I >run the risk of disappointment and a bigger brokerage fee, I have started to >buy a bit of what I consider good, financially strong beaten down >tech-stocks and just dollar cost average over the next couple of months. I >am convinced that good non-pc related tech stocks will double their value by >next December. I know that this is not Canslim investing. But, as we all >know Canslim is not for bear markets. > >Regards, >Behdad > > > > >- Tim Fisher, 1995 President, Pacific Fishery Biologists Ore-ROCK-On Rockhounding Web Site PFB Information mailto:tim@OreRockOn.com WWW http://OreRockOn.com - - ------------------------------ Date: 16 Dec 2000 07:08:20 -0800 From: "Tim Fisher" Subject: [CANSLIM] P.S. IBD got it right with that article, triple witching exaggerated both the stocks down and the volume, look for a technical bounce on Monday. P.P.S. I made money on Friday in my LLURs, no surprise there, if you look at he sectors doing well in the IBD article. Wish I had UHS! Tim Fisher, 1995 President, Pacific Fishery Biologists Ore-ROCK-On Rockhounding Web Site PFB Information mailto:tim@OreRockOn.com WWW http://OreRockOn.com - - ------------------------------ Date: 16 Dec 2000 07:35:03 -0800 From: "Tim Fisher" Subject: [CANSLIM] Fwd: Web Site Updated >To view the charts, go to www.ianforum.com/markets.htm > >The Nasdaq lost 264.11 points last week on record volume to give back >nearly all of the previous weeks gains. It closed at 2653. > >The word coming from many "gurus" last weekend was buy, buy, buy. I heard >and read such comments as "the best buying opportunity for tech stocks in >5 years," and "there will not be a retest of the lows this time, there is >too much good news out there." > >Traders were bullish going into Monday because the prior weeks action, the >presidential race was nearing resolution, and an inevitable interest rate >cut is supposedly on the immediate horizon. Monday was strong on good >volume, but that was it for the week. > >Last week I said, "I don't not believe this market will be able to trade >on its own merits until the presidential race is decided." There was no >Bush bounce, and the market is now trading on fundamentals. > >If this is the case, I want to point out a few scary P/Es for you to >contemplate. During a raging bull market, P/Es don't matter, but when a >recession is imminent, investors, and I use the word lightly, begin to >assess what they are paying for a share of stock. A few examples to >ponder are: JNPR, P/E 486; AMCC, P/E 287; CIEN, P/E 315; JDSU, P/E 112; >AND BRCM, P/E 142. These are current P/E's AFTER the correction. > >I fail to see all of the "good news", so the lesson is to let the market >tell you what is it doing, not to listen to what the "gurus" think it will >do. Remember, all of the talking heads who appear on CNBC and the other >financial networks are LONG, and they can't dump their positions. Of >course, they want the rest of us to jump in to prop up their holdings. > >This is the way I see it this week. > >1. The moving averages are STILL showing no signs of turning up, and the >200 DMA is continuing its acceleration to the downside. > >2. Volume was extremely heavy for the week, mostly to the downside. >Contrary to what the "guru" said about not testing the lows this time, the >NASDAQ IS testing the lows. An upleg from here would form a W with a >higher low on the NASDAQ, but a break below the intraday low of 2523 on >November 30 means the index is going lower, and I would expect panic >selling to set in. > >3. The V bottom did not materialize. Personally, I will not consider any >positions until the NASDAQ shows me it can break through the top of the >middle of the W. Resistance is in the 3025 area, and it must break through >this area on good volume with the up volume leading the down volume by a >wide margin. In this market, follow through days have NOT been a >confirming indicator, so the index must prove itself. Ideally, the NASDAQ >will have several up days on good volume, rather than the herky jerky >patterns we have seen. > >4. The intermediate term trend line failed to break to the upside. It is >tempting to get in at the "bottom", but if there is a lesson to be learned >in this Bear market, it is don't try to pick the "bottom". > >5. The New High Low and Advance Decline Lines are still a disaster; the >A/D line is accelerating. > >6. Learn to be your own "guru". Don't listen to talking heads; their >opinions don't count. When you attend one of Ian's workshops, you will >learn how to be your own guru. If you listen to and watch what the market >is telling you, you will be way ahead of most investors. Top Down >Investing works: when the market is against you, chances for success are >slim unless you are in a very strong sector which is trading counter to >the market. Defensive stocks are a good example. > >7. The Coppock is continuing down and is at record lows. Pay close >attention to the weekly volume on the Coppock chart. Notice the volume >increase during the past 1 1/2 years. This says market participation is >greater than ever, most traders are short term traders and are in and out >of a stock many times, or a combination of both. In some circles, we would >call it FROTH! > >8. In the bottom chart, the both Accumulation/Distribution Indicators are >heading down and the the MACD is turning down. > >9. My Defensive Stocks Surrogate is still strong. This is a negative for >HGS stocks. > >10. Even if we have an interest rate cut in the near future, it will take >at least 6 months for it to show up in corporate profits. Remember how >long the interest rate increases took to slow the economy. Of course, you >do not want to wait for the profits to appear before taking positions, so >let the market tell you when it wants to go up. You will never get in at >the bottom, and you should not try. The greatest traders of all time never >tried to pick a bottom, why should we? > >Have a good week. > >Ron Tim Fisher, 1995 President, Pacific Fishery Biologists Ore-ROCK-On Rockhounding Web Site PFB Information mailto:tim@OreRockOn.com WWW http://OreRockOn.com - - ------------------------------ Date: Sat, 16 Dec 2000 12:32:11 -0700 From: "Patrick Wahl" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] There goes another rally - busted!!! On 15 Dec 00, at 23:22, Dan Musicant wrote: > It seems to me that we've seen a lot of failed rallies this year, maybe > 4 of them. WON said that confirmed rallies succeed 80% of the time. That > means we are really bucking the odds this year. What's up with this? Is > CANSLIM kaput? Temporarily not working? Nothing works when the market is heading down. I'd say CANSLIM is still working in the sense that if you are only buying stocks that are emerging from bases, you probably found next to nothing to buy, so are still out of the market. - - ------------------------------ Date: Sun, 17 Dec 2000 06:51:02 -0500 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: [CANSLIM] DGO List Overall list grew slightly to 277 from 270 a week ago. Before that it was 247, 195 and 219. DFXI - B5 NVR - 2 week handle on a deep cup? FRX - B8 MFC - LLUR FRS - B2+ ACS - B2, base on base? LUV - B6 GBCB - B5 CGP - B2, lots of insider selling KP - B4 FED - LLUR MHO - B6, trending up UNH - B3 GNWR - B2+ EQT - B7 SYY - B5 DBRN - B6 RKY - B4 BMET - B6 BRO - B4 MRK - B7 CORS - B9 TWRI - B3 PDM - B6 KRC - B2 UCU - B4 ACV - B5 OKE - B6, trend up BAX - B3 HRH - B6+ TGI - B6 Happy hunting, Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net ICQ # 5568838 - - ------------------------------ End of canslim-digest V2 #1068 ****************************** To unsubscribe to canslim-digest, send an email to "majordomo@xmission.com" with "unsubscribe canslim-digest" in the body of the message. For information on digests or retrieving files and old messages send "help" to the same address. Do not use quotes in your message.