From: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com (canslim-digest) To: canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Subject: canslim-digest V2 #1086 Reply-To: canslim Sender: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Errors-To: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Precedence: bulk Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable X-No-Archive: yes canslim-digest Wednesday, January 10 2001 Volume 02 : Number 1086 In this issue: RE: [CANSLIM] from "Money Daily" Re: [CANSLIM] from "Money Daily" [CANSLIM] Yahoo warns Re: [CANSLIM] from "Money Daily" Re: [CANSLIM] Yahoo warns ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Date: Wed, 10 Jan 2001 00:27:32 -0500 From: Surindra Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] from "Money Daily" Tom: Thanks for the insight. Your thought are worth $2 million, not 2 cents (not counting the inflation) Regards Surindra - -----Original Message----- From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of Tom Worley Sent: Wednesday, January 10, 2001 12:00 AM To: CANSLIM Subject: [CANSLIM] from "Money Daily" caught my eye tonight - following excerpt: "Merrill now expects the Fed to cut interest rates by 50 basis points at its meeting in late January. (50 basis points equals 0.5 percent.) Merrill also cut its economic growth forecast by around a half a percentage point to 1.5 to 2 percent in the first six months of 2001. Rating agency Fitch says that defaults on junk bonds hit 5.1 percent in 2001, which is the highest rate since the last US recession and the third-highest since 1980. " my 2 cents worth - having just cut half a percent on kinda an emergency basis, done between meetings by phone conference, I would be most surprised by another half percent at the end of Jan meeting, tho I do not rule out a qtr percent cut I also think Merrill's economic growth forecast is too dire, 2.5% to 3% seems more likely to me once all the dips and valleys are averaged out. But the defaults on junk bonds should catch everyone's eye, as it will impact what the Amazons and others of their money losing ways will likely have to pay should they continue to go to the well and suck up fresh capital to sustain their continuing losses. Profits, even reduced profits, will always eventually win out over losses on a continuing and often growing basis. One "floater" issue yet to be addressed is the likely cut in production by 1.5 million barrels per day of crude oil, driving energy prices once again higher just when global economies are at their weakest. That may be one of the dumbest moves the oil producers will have made in several decades. And I appreciate weighing the loss of natural resources against maintaining cash flows. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net ICQ # 5568838 - - - - ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 9 Jan 2001 22:57:06 -0800 From: "Behdad Forghani" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] from "Money Daily" I liked the Merrill Lynch pessimism because it will bring us closer to the capitulation. BTW, did anybody notice the improved A/D ratio and Up/Down Volume on Nasdaq? The only bummer was the New High/Low ratio on Nasdaq. Although, there were only 80 new lows on Nasdaq today. It seems to me that good stocks are not being punished as bad anymore and the sell off is limited to stocks that have negative outlook. Specially stocks that give a positive outlook for 2001 are now rising. Chronically Optimist, Behdad - ----- Original Message ----- From: "Tom Worley" To: "CANSLIM" Sent: Tuesday, January 09, 2001 8:59 PM Subject: [CANSLIM] from "Money Daily" > caught my eye tonight - following excerpt: > > "Merrill now expects the Fed to cut interest rates by 50 basis > points at its meeting in late January. (50 basis points equals > 0.5 percent.) Merrill also cut its economic growth forecast by > around a half a percentage point to 1.5 to 2 percent in the first > six months of 2001. Rating agency Fitch says that defaults on > junk bonds hit 5.1 percent in 2001, which is the highest rate > since the last US recession and the third-highest since 1980. " > > my 2 cents worth - having just cut half a percent on kinda an > emergency basis, done between meetings by phone conference, I > would be most surprised by another half percent at the end of Jan > meeting, tho I do not rule out a qtr percent cut > > I also think Merrill's economic growth forecast is too dire, 2.5% > to 3% seems more likely to me once all the dips and valleys are > averaged out. > > But the defaults on junk bonds should catch everyone's eye, as it > will impact what the Amazons and others of their money losing > ways will likely have to pay should they continue to go to the > well and suck up fresh capital to sustain their continuing > losses. Profits, even reduced profits, will always eventually > win out over losses on a continuing and often growing basis. > > One "floater" issue yet to be addressed is the likely cut in > production by 1.5 million barrels per day of crude oil, driving > energy prices once again higher just when global economies are at > their weakest. That may be one of the dumbest moves the oil > producers will have made in several decades. And I appreciate > weighing the loss of natural resources against maintaining cash > flows. > > Tom Worley > stkguru@netside.net > ICQ # 5568838 > > > > > - - - ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 10 Jan 2001 22:23:07 -0500 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: [CANSLIM] Yahoo warns YHOO hit its forecast for the latest qtr, but gives dire warnings of a decline in earnings from estimates for 2001, its first ever overall decline. Hit hard, trading to 24.25 in aftermarket from a close of 30.5. In Japan, where Softbank owns 22% of YHOO and 50% of YHOO Japan (talk about diversifying your risks!!!), Softbank was down nearly 10% dragging the Nikkei lower. Virtually every tech name you can think of was down in aftermarket trading. MOT which reported earnings in line with recently reduced expectations, was up 5/8 as it did not issue any new warnings, and the worst is seen over despite Nokia's poor showing yesterday. Nasdaq futures are not yet down like I expected, now just over 1%, so maybe the analysts comments about tomorrow being the bottom for techs is carrying some credibility (at least overnight!). Even so, I expect the opening bell will give back most, or more, of what we gained today. NYSE Composite, as well as the Russell 2000, still look pretty decent, especially with Nasdaq in the background. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net ICQ # 5568838 - - ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 10 Jan 2001 21:44:43 -0700 From: "Patrick Wahl" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] from "Money Daily" On 9 Jan 01, at 22:57, Behdad Forghani wrote: > BTW, did anybody notice the improved A/D ratio and Up/Down Volume on Nasdaq? > The only bummer was the New High/Low ratio on Nasdaq. Although, there were > only 80 new lows on Nasdaq today. It seems to me that good stocks are not I have noticed the A/D line and the New Highs/New Lows starting to make a pretty significant improvement in the NYSE. They trended down for much of 1999 and 2000 even when the market was going up, so I'm thinking that this time they are probably an early sign of an eventual market turnaround. Also, James Cramer of theStreet.com had a study of what the market does following rate cuts, and 13 of 14 times, it was higher 3 months later, and usually quite a bit higher 12 months later, except one time when the fed raised rates shortly after cutting them. http://abcnews.go.com/sections/business/TheStreet/CRAMER.html - - ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 10 Jan 2001 22:20:47 -0800 From: "Behdad Forghani" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Yahoo warns Hi, The earnings today were indeed a disappointment. I think the acid test is how good companies do when bad companies give warning. Since, I believe that Motorola is not a good company. Last year, I was amazed how Motorola held up compared to some other good companies. I am an engineer working in the wireless and broadband sectors. Everybody in my field knew that Motorola invented TDMA/IS-54 which became IS-136 but Nokia and Lucent and Nortel reaped teh benefits. It is similar to how Xerox did not benefit from inventing GUI, but, initially it made Apple and then microsoft rich. On the DSP side, the leader is TI. I like Motorola's microprocessors, but, you can as well do with ARM and many other embedded processor. If investors shrug off Motorola and Yahoo earnings, I will take it as an excellent omen. Otherwise, I will take profit of my trades over the last couple of weeks. BTW, all things considered, I think that Nokia results where far better than the doom and gloom recession scenario. Good Luck, Behdad - ----- Original Message ----- From: "Tom Worley" To: "CANSLIM" Sent: Wednesday, January 10, 2001 7:23 PM Subject: [CANSLIM] Yahoo warns > YHOO hit its forecast for the latest qtr, but gives dire warnings > of a decline in earnings from estimates for 2001, its first ever > overall decline. Hit hard, trading to 24.25 in aftermarket from a > close of 30.5. In Japan, where Softbank owns 22% of YHOO and 50% > of YHOO Japan (talk about diversifying your risks!!!), Softbank > was down nearly 10% dragging the Nikkei lower. > > Virtually every tech name you can think of was down in > aftermarket trading. MOT which reported earnings in line with > recently reduced expectations, was up 5/8 as it did not issue any > new warnings, and the worst is seen over despite Nokia's poor > showing yesterday. > > Nasdaq futures are not yet down like I expected, now just over > 1%, so maybe the analysts comments about tomorrow being the > bottom for techs is carrying some credibility (at least > overnight!). Even so, I expect the opening bell will give back > most, or more, of what we gained today. > > NYSE Composite, as well as the Russell 2000, still look pretty > decent, especially with Nasdaq in the background. > > Tom Worley > stkguru@netside.net > ICQ # 5568838 > > > > > - - - ------------------------------ End of canslim-digest V2 #1086 ****************************** To unsubscribe to canslim-digest, send an email to "majordomo@xmission.com" with "unsubscribe canslim-digest" in the body of the message. For information on digests or retrieving files and old messages send "help" to the same address. Do not use quotes in your message.