From: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com (canslim-digest) To: canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Subject: canslim-digest V2 #1093 Reply-To: canslim Sender: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Errors-To: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Precedence: bulk Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable X-No-Archive: yes canslim-digest Saturday, January 20 2001 Volume 02 : Number 1093 In this issue: Re: [CANSLIM] M PERVERSITY [CANSLIM] Market bottom [CANSLIM] Thanks for the feedback: Re: [CANSLIM] M PERVERSITY [CANSLIM] Hmmm, wonder why it's so quiet all of a sudden? Re: [CANSLIM] M PERVERSITY [CANSLIM] Fwd: Web site updated ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Date: Thu, 18 Jan 2001 22:21:20 -0500 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] M PERVERSITY Yeah, that's one of the dangers when we start letting our opinions talk to us instead of "M" and charts (something I am far too prone to doing as well, and need frequent reminders about!!!) Examining earnings reports from today and yesterday, along with today's trading and after market indications, does further confirm my opinion that market sentiment is saying we have seen the worst of the bad earnings news, that the Feds will cut further at the meeting on Jan 30-31 (with increased speculation it will be 50 bp rather than 25), and that a lot of major corps are laying off people further weakening the labor markets. Doesn't make it true, just that mkt sentiment wants it to be true. Looking at how stocks like AAPL can go up on their latest earnings results suggests that far too many investors are taking the stance that the worst is over, this may go along with the overall bullish sentiment indicators. But this market has demonstrated it can turn on us in a heartbeat, so all the more reason to stick to the rules, study the charts, and only rely on objective indicators. My gut feeling says this trend will last for more than another day or two, but that's gut, and nothing scientific. My intellect and rules already forced me to place a sell limit for half my position on EPIQ using the 50 and 200 dma. If Schwab would have taken a sell stop order on it, the other half would also be under the gun of an open order. As it is, I have to try and watch it like a hawk. Regards, Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net ICQ # 5568838 - ----- Original Message ----- From: Tim Fisher To: Sent: Thursday, January 18, 2001 9:44 PM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] M PERVERSITY Hey Tom, remember the guy who rolled the dice and bet it all that Asia couldn't possibly go any lower? The next week he said he couldn't afford an internet connection anymore and resigned from the list. At 06:14 PM 1/18/2001 -0800, you wrote: >Hi, > >Besides, housing permits being down, I believe there is going to be a big >sector rotation into technology. Like Motorola that lost its technology >leadership, I believe that Intel lost technology leadership to AMD. So, I >believe Intel going up has more to do with brand name and the fact that >people do not realize that after every crash most of the market leaders >change. I don't want to sound arrogant, but, my portfolio is up about 30% >since beginning of January. It wasn't a great feat since I had a 14% jump >the day Feds cut interest rate. I expect Naz to go up until companies give >good earning report. Then sometime near the end of January after earnings >have stopped to pull back and then shoot up again. Unless, feds cut interest >rates by 50 points which I think is unlikely. If feds do not cut any, I >expect a big pullback. My humble prediction is Naz will hit that 4000 >sometime this year. Now a days there are value tech stocks. My method has >been that I buy companies that beat estimates, give a positive outlook for >the next year and do not have excessive insider selling. Preferably the ones >that had insider purchases. I put a buy order for FLEX today. Similarly, I >did not buy EMLX because the valuation is still very high and they have a >lot of insider selling. > >I liked two things about the market during the last two weeks. The first was >we had drops or weak openings and the market recovered closed much higher. >Second, A/D, Up/Down Volume and New High/Low ratios have been very good. >Although, Naz new highs are still very small. Once Naz recovers a bit, we >may be able to use Canslim method to time the market. Right now, I am timing >my purchases around earning anouncements. > >----- Original Message ----- >From: "Charles Layne" >To: >Sent: Thursday, January 18, 2001 10:02 AM >Subject: [CANSLIM] M PERVERSITY > > > > Oh the perversity of it all! MDC spouts out great earnings report - >exceeds > > analysts prophecies - and what happens? It promptly drops 2-3 points. > > Meanwhile, INTEL says we ain't going to meet expectations, and up it goes. > > What gives? (except I have a position in MDC & not INTEL). > > > > What's the thought on MDC chart action? > > > > > > Charles Layne > > > > > > > > - > > >- Tim Fisher, 1995 President, Pacific Fishery Biologists Ore-ROCK-On Rockhounding Web Site PFB Information mailto:tim@OreRockOn.com WWW http://OreRockOn.com - - - - ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 18 Jan 2001 22:12:43 -0800 From: Dan Cash Subject: [CANSLIM] Market bottom We must have put in a market bottom: There are 19 posts to the list today, the most in months! - - ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 18 Jan 2001 22:39:26 -0800 From: "Ian" Subject: [CANSLIM] Thanks for the feedback: Tom: On SCOT, the median trading range for the last 2 months has been around 30,000 shares, so 600,000 was a real shocker. I was surprised to see the average around 100,000. Anyways, it was very unusual volume - particularly since it was almost exclusively block buys of 5,000 shares or more. On ACLNF - I have to agree with you on todays action - the stock should have behaved much better. I hadn't realized that the % institutional ownership was so low - also not a good sign. It does appear that the founder/CEO does own a sizable position - too large IMO - of around 50%. During the last cc, he was firm to point out that he has a significant interest in realizing shareholder value. Finally, from a competition standpoint, anyone who has ever been to North Africa, let alone tried to do business there, knows that there are HUGE barriers to entry in trying to set up a signficant trading business there. However, all-in-all, I will watch and see how it behaves on the chart over the next few months. I posted here about SYMM breaking out a few days ago - I never got a digest that day - are there opinions on it? (It is already up a few points from then, and up about 80% from 2 weeks ago.) Cheers, Ian - - ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 19 Jan 2001 08:37:26 -0500 From: "Charles Layne" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] M PERVERSITY - ----- Original Message ----- From: "Tom Worley" To: Sent: Thursday, January 18, 2001 8:51 PM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] M PERVERSITY > I see MDC as a LLUR chart, which recently hit its upper side of > the trading range and was vulnerable to profit taking. Add to > that the "sell on news" or "sell on news approaching while I have > a profit in my day / short term trading account" syndrome, and > that would be sufficient answer for me. Tom, Help me out a bit more, if you will. I have seen acronyms such as LLUR thrown around a bit here and have been able to figure out some of them. What do they mean & what kind of chart action do they imply? Specifically for MDC, is the chart beginning to look like a choppy top, or is it merely pulling back a bit? I know what you mean about being vulnerable to profit taking along with the economic news. However, will there be a returning interest in it? BTW, the market is still perverse. Thanks for any illumination. Charles Layne - - ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 19 Jan 2001 12:57:40 -0800 From: Tim Fisher Subject: [CANSLIM] Hmmm, wonder why it's so quiet all of a sudden? Well, not really. If you tiptoed back in you're probably either out today or wishing you were. I can't even keep up with the stops executing in my accounts, but I think I am 100% cash as far as CANSLIM holdings go. Back to the foxhole! Tim Fisher Ore-Rock-On and Pacific Fishery Biologists WWW Sites Tim@OreRockOn.com WWW: http://OreRockOn.com See naked fish and rocks! - - ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 19 Jan 2001 19:32:13 -0500 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] M PERVERSITY Hi Charles, LLUR for Lower Left to Upper Right is a term introduced to this group several years ago. Generally speaking, you want to see a consistent LLUR pattern for a year or more, with virtually no volatility. The flatter the line, the better the chart. Think of a base with a tilt, cuz that's how you have to play it since normally it never develops a normal horizontal base. MDC is actually more of a "channeling" stock, in which you have greater volatility where it trades in a range. But the range is constantly moving up, like an LLUR does. Draw a line along the highs and the lows, and you can see the "channel" and the trading range. Will there be a "returning interest in it"?? I am not sure the interest has left, but it seems that both long term and short term holders decided to take profits. Nothing wrong in that, gotta happen sooner or later. Only time will tell, but that is one major red flag with both LLUR and channeling stocks - if they change their pattern, look out. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net ICQ # 5568838 - ----- Original Message ----- From: Charles Layne To: Sent: Friday, January 19, 2001 8:37 AM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] M PERVERSITY - ----- Original Message ----- From: "Tom Worley" To: Sent: Thursday, January 18, 2001 8:51 PM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] M PERVERSITY > I see MDC as a LLUR chart, which recently hit its upper side of > the trading range and was vulnerable to profit taking. Add to > that the "sell on news" or "sell on news approaching while I have > a profit in my day / short term trading account" syndrome, and > that would be sufficient answer for me. Tom, Help me out a bit more, if you will. I have seen acronyms such as LLUR thrown around a bit here and have been able to figure out some of them. What do they mean & what kind of chart action do they imply? Specifically for MDC, is the chart beginning to look like a choppy top, or is it merely pulling back a bit? I know what you mean about being vulnerable to profit taking along with the economic news. However, will there be a returning interest in it? BTW, the market is still perverse. Thanks for any illumination. Charles Layne - - - - ------------------------------ Date: 20 Jan 2001 07:35:58 -0800 From: "Tim Fisher" Subject: [CANSLIM] Fwd: Web site updated >All charts and graphs are linked from http://www.ianforum.com/nasdaq.htm > >The Nasdaq was up another 143 points this week. It seems to be on its way >higher, or is it? It has clearly broken the down trend line at the 2700 >mark, and closed at 2770 for the week. > >Pre-market looked extremely strong Friday when the Nasdaq gapped open to >2838, but it did not hold, and many stocks which had run up during recent >days fell victim to profit taking and uncertainty. SUNW's earnings did >not help the bullish cause, and it closed down $4 from yesterday. > > My current analysis of the Nasdaq: > >1. The moving averages are going down, but the 17 DMA has flattened and is >trying to turn up. The 50 Day Moving Average is still going down, but the >acceleration is slowing. > >2. Upside volume was extremely heavy this week, until Friday where the >downside volume was slightly heavier than the upside volume. On an >extremely heavy volume day like Friday when the market makes little or no >progress to the upside, this is considered a distribution day. There are >plenty of sellers to meet the buying demand. This indicates the market >may need time to rest, and if earnings disappoint, it could fall as >quickly as it rose.. > >3. The medium term trendline is was broken to the upside at 2700, a >positive. > >4. Traders seem to be factoring a 50 basis point rate cut into the >market. If the Fed. sees too much froth coming back into the market, I >would not count on the 1/2 point cut, but rather 1/4. > >5. The New High/Low and Advance/Decline lines are going up, but the ascent >slowed by Friday. > >6. The Coppock is going up. > >7. The Accumulation/Distribution Indicators are strong in the bottom >Nasdaq chart. > >8. My Defensive Stocks Surrogate has collapsed as money flowed into techs >and the Nasdaq. > >9. This has been a great market for swing traders and good stock pickers. >The Semi's are leading the way in the 3 week RS chart. > >Keep looking for quality candidates in emerging groups to purchase if the >Nasdaq consolidates and heads higher. Remember, a lot of this recent move >is based on anticipation of further interest rate cuts. If that does not >happen, I think the rally will stall and the Nasdaq could test the recent >lows. > >Ron Tim Fisher, 1995 President, Pacific Fishery Biologists Ore-ROCK-On Rockhounding Web Site PFB Information mailto:tim@OreRockOn.com WWW http://OreRockOn.com - - ------------------------------ End of canslim-digest V2 #1093 ****************************** To unsubscribe to canslim-digest, send an email to "majordomo@xmission.com" with "unsubscribe canslim-digest" in the body of the message. For information on digests or retrieving files and old messages send "help" to the same address. Do not use quotes in your message.