From: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com (canslim-digest) To: canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Subject: canslim-digest V2 #1202 Reply-To: canslim Sender: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Errors-To: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Precedence: bulk Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable X-No-Archive: yes canslim-digest Monday, March 12 2001 Volume 02 : Number 1202 In this issue: Re: [CANSLIM] From: daily news, yahoo [CANSLIM] Again! Re: [CANSLIM] ICUI Re: [CANSLIM] From: daily news, yahoo Re: [CANSLIM] Again! Re: [CANSLIM] Again! ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Date: Mon, 12 Mar 2001 07:08:07 -0500 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] From: daily news, yahoo Robert, Greenspan is not a supporter of / believer in the Phillips Curve, altho there are still one or two members of the Fed. Open Market Committee that persist in hanging on to this wife's tale. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net ICQ # 5568838 - ----- Original Message ----- From: Robert McGill To: Sent: Monday, March 12, 2001 1:03 AM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] From: daily news, yahoo Clearly, the nasdaq was being inflated beyond reason. Sky high pe's which were completely unjustified. A tight IT labor market was contributing to wage pressure. I'm told that Greenspan is a believer in Keynesian economics which in turns believes in the Phillips Curve which says that as unemployment goes down, inflation goes up. I believe that we were experiencing inflation, even if it was only in certain areas. The crb index was climbing, of this there is no doubt. As distasteful as the medicine was, IMHO, a dose of castor oil was called for. The patient has had it's dose of medicine and hopefully is now on the road to recovery. We will argue for years whether or not Greenspan's economic policies can be likened to a car veering from side to side of the road narrowly averting disaster or whether or not he truly was the Maestro, regardless, the issue now is can we resume making money. Hopefully the answer is yes. Let's all pull together and see if those of us who so desire can achieve financial independence with the help of this group and Mr. O'Neil. - ----- Original Message ----- From: "Dan Forant" To: Sent: Sunday, March 11, 2001 11:03 PM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] From: daily news, yahoo > I think the Greenspan importance to the economy is over hyped. We may have > seen double the growth without the Fed's influence. He got lucky two ways, > the economy boomed and a woman found him. > > Dan F > ----- Original Message ----- > From: "Patrick Wahl" > To: > Sent: Sunday, March 11, 2001 5:23 PM > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] From: daily news, yahoo > > > > Lets see, an unprecedented economic expansion, next to no > > inflation, consistently low unemployment rate, and now we may or > > may not be in a recession, it is still unclear, and you think > > Greenspan should go? You don't cut a guy much slack do you... > > > > On 11 Mar 01, at 14:54, Dan Forant wrote: > > > > > Time for Greenspan to go bye bye. He served his purpose well for years, > now > > > his foresight is failing him. > > > > > > Dan F > > > ----- Original Message ----- > > > From: "Dan" > > > To: > > > Sent: Saturday, March 10, 2001 11:05 PM > > > Subject: [CANSLIM] From: daily news, yahoo > > > > > > > > > > http://dailynews.yahoo.com/h/nm/20010310/bs/stocks_week_dc_1.html > > > > > > > > Saturday March 10 10:56 AM ET > > > > Is Greenspan Fighting Phantom > > > > Recession? > > > > > > > > By Pierre Belec > > > > > > > > NEW YORK (Reuters) - Nearly two years ago, Alan Greenspan > > > > (news - web sites) began raising interest rates to head off > > > > ``inflation'' and now he's chopping away at rates to head off > > > > ``recession.'' As it turned out, he was fighting phantom inflation > > > > and people are wondering if he is now combating a phantom > > > > recession. > > > > > > > > One expert says the Federal Reserve (news - web sites) > > > > chairman has gotten it wrong before and he may be missing > > > > the bull's-eye, again. > > > > > > > > ``First, the Fed was raising rates to fight inflation, which did not > > > > exist and now it is lowering rates to fight a recession, which we > > > > feel does not exist,'' says Penny Russell, economist at H. C. > > > > Wainwright & Co., Economics Inc. > > > > > > > > While the Fed was raising interest rates to a 10-year high > > > > between 1999 and 2000, the Consumer Price Index (news - > > > > web sites), which tracks inflation at the retail level, edged up > > > > less than 1.5 percentage points and the core rate that excludes > > > > volatile food and energy prices went up even less. > > > > > > > > Greenspan's tight money policy succeeded too well as the > > > > economy's growth has nearly stalled. In January this year, the > > > > central bank launched a bold move: preemptive rate cuts for > > > > fear that the six interest-rate hikes had put the economy at risk > > > > of recession. > > > > > > > > Smart move? No, says Russell, dismissing the Fed's > > > > assurance that it can figure out to the nth degree when the > > > > economy is facing a killer problem, like a recession. > > > > > > > > ``What's happening is that we have been through an economic > > > > period when things were so extraordinary and when they go > > > > back to just ordinary, people seem to be more concerned than > > > > they should,'' Russell says. > > > > > > > > DID GREENSPAN's RATE HIKES CHOKE ECONOMY? > > > > > > > > ``So it would appear,'' says Russell. ``But the truth is that no > > > > one at the Fed -- not even its illustrious chairman -- is capable > > > > of managing a large and complex economy like the U.S. or of > > > > knowing just when to raise and when to lower interest rates to > > > > keep growth within a predesignated range.'' > > > > > > > > Greenspan, who worried that the stock market was too > > > > high-priced in 1999, went on a rate-raising spree instead of > > > > allowing Wall Street to correct its excess in its own sweet time. > > > > The result of this hands-on money policy: the rapid destruction > > > > of $3 trillion in stock market wealth and disillusioned > > > > households that caused consumer confidence to plunge. > > > > > > > > Falling stock prices made a lot of Americans feel poor > > > > because many of them looked at the market during the great > > > > boom years between 1995 and 1999 as a savings account > > > > with tremendously good yields. > > > > > > > > The market's monster reversal, which sent the Nasdaq down an > > > > eye-popping 55 percent from its high during a 12-month > > > > period, shook consumer confidence in a New York minute. The > > > > reason that the apprehension spread so fast was because > > > > more than 50 percent of U.S. households have a stake in the > > > > stock market through retirement accounts. > > > > > > > > Russell favors benign neglect and monetary neutrality rather > > > > than the Fed's jockeying, which she says destabilizes both the > > > > economy and stock market. > > > > > > > > ``Now, if the Fed could be persuaded to leave rates alone and > > > > let all the ripples die out, there is no reason that the economy > > > > could not get back on the fast track,'' she says. > > > > ``Noninterference would be even more stimulative than a tax > > > > cut.'' > > > > > > > > Greenspan and his fellow bankers have been known to fumble > > > > the ball. They misread the handwriting on the wall in 1990-91 > > > > when a recession was slamming the economy and fell asleep > > > > at the wheel. > > > > > > > > So the Fed, which is now racing to keep the economy from > > > > tipping into recession, is faced with a dilemma on whether to > > > > cut interest rates for a third time this year. It has made two cuts > > > > each of 50 basis points in January after boosting rates by 175 > > > > basis points from June 1999 to May 2000. > > > > > > > > Russell says that if interest rates had been left alone in > > > > 1999-2000, the economy would have slowed down by itself, > > > > ``gently not abruptly and we would have been enjoying higher > > > > growth than we are now.'' > > > > > > > > The betting is that the Fed again will lower by 50 basis points > > > > at its March 20 policy-setting meeting. > > > > > > > > Recession Isn'T In The Cards > > > > > > > > Even the numbers crunchers say that an old reliable measuring > > > > stick -- the nation's money supply, also known as M2 -- is not > > > > emitting signals of a recession. M2 has jumped at an annual > > > > rate of more than 10 percent over the last three months, which > > > > means the Fed is printing more money to pump up the > > > > softening economy. > > > > > > > > ``Since the M2 series began in 1959, the U.S. economy has > > > > never entered a recession with the real M2 growth this high,'' > > > > says Paul Kasriel, head of economic research at Northern > > > > Trust Co. ``The additional 50 basis points of cuts we are > > > > forecasting to occur by March 20 would be expected to boost > > > > nominal M2 growth still more.'' > > > > > > > > Russell says the Fed appears to be focusing too much on > > > > momentary changes in the economy. > > > > > > > > ``The central bank is overreacting to what is happening in the > > > > economy,'' she says. ``It was astounding how precipitous the > > > > Fed was in lowering interest rates in January,'' she says. ``It > > > > was completely out of character for the central bankers to lower > > > > interest rates twice in the same month.'' > > > > > > > > Russell says that the Fed chairman raised interest rates in > > > > 1999 and 2000 because he saw inflation ghosts, then he cut > > > > rates in January simply out of ``fear of fear itself.'' > > > > > > > > ``The current economic situation does not justify January's rate > > > > cuts,'' she says. ``Just a year or two ago, monetary policy > > > > appeared to be focused on fighting phantom inflation, now it > > > > appears to be focused on fighting a phantom recession.'' > > > > > > > > Even some Fed officials don't see a recession on the horizon. This > > > > week, Federal > > > > Reserve Bank of Dallas President Robert McTeer struck an upbeat note > on > > > > the U.S. > > > > slowdown, saying he expected the country to avoid a recession and was > > > > encouraged by > > > > the latest economic conditions. > > > > > > > > Also, Richmond Fed President Alfred Broaddus said recently that > chances > > > > were ``pretty > > > > high'' that the United States was not facing a broad economic drop, > but > > > > rather a slowdown > > > > centered in manufacturing companies. > > > > > > > > Not The Stuff Recessions Are Made Of > > > > > > > > The nation's jobless rate held steady at 4.2 percent and payrolls > > > > outside the farm sector > > > > jumped by 135,000 in February after gaining 224,000 in January. > > > > > > > > New cars are still rolling off the nation's dealership lots. > Americans > > > > bought vehicles at an > > > > annual rate of 17.5 million in February, despite an economic slowdown > > > > and a plunge in > > > > consumer confidence. In January, consumers snapped up automobiles at > > > > the fastest pace > > > > in four months. > > > > > > > > The Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi and UBS Warburg's Weekly Chain Store > Sales > > > > Snapshot > > > > estimated that retail sales in February grew by 2.5 percent vs. a > year > > > > ago. > > > > > > > > Housing starts were the highest in nine months in January as mortgage > > > > rates tracked the > > > > downward slide in the Fed's interest rates and sales of previously > > > > owned homes rose 3.8 > > > > percent in January. > > > > > > > > Additionally, the service sector that generates a whopping 80 percent > > > > of the nation's jobs > > > > held steady in February, even though manufacturing, which creates > only > > > > 20 percent of the > > > > jobs, was in recession. For the manufacturers, it was a > self-inflicted > > > > wound because they > > > > ignored signs last summer that the economy was slowing and kept > > > > producing goods until > > > > they gagged on their bloated inventories. > > > > > > > > Another positive indicator is the stock market. The Dow Jones > > > > industrial average is within > > > > flirting distance of the 11,000-point level, which would seem to > > > > contradict the view that the > > > > economy is going to hell in a handbasket. The Nasdaq market, which > sent > > > > technology > > > > stocks through the roof during the Great Bull Run, may be down a > > > > bone-jarring 55 percent, > > > > but that market does not truly reflect the economy. > > > > > > > > ``These are hardly a recession signal,'' says Russell. ''Further, > when > > > > the stock market and > > > > short-term interest rates are in agreement on a forecast for the > > > > economy -- as they are > > > > now -- they are rarely wrong.'' > > > > > > > > Bill Valentine, president of Valentine Ventures LLC, says the stock > > > > market traditionally > > > > leads the economy by six to nine months. > > > > > > > > ``That means the market falls before the economy does and recovers in > > > > advance as well,'' > > > > he says. ``If this is a recession, we won't get official confirmation > > > > of such until April of 2001 > > > > and by then, it will be seven months old -- and too late to do > anything > > > > about it.'' > > > > > > > > Over the last 30 years, in every recession except in 1973-75, the > > > > market had bottomed out > > > > or would start to rally within three months of the time people got a > > > > whiff that there was a > > > > recession. > > > > > > > > Valentine's bet: even if a recession occurs, stocks will hold up > > > > because Wall Street has > > > > already assumed that it is an accomplished fact. > > > > > > > > ``If we do get a recession, it will be very slight and short, by > > > > historical standards -- two or > > > > three quarters, max,'' he says. ''The arsenal of interest rates and > > > > (President George W. > > > > Bush (news - web sites)'s) tax cuts will stave off an economic > > > > catastrophe.'' > > > > > > > > For the week, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 178.31 points > at > > > > 10,644.62. The > > > > Nasdaq Composite Index was off 64.85 at 2,052.78 and the Standard & > > > > Poor's 500 index > > > > slipped 0.76 of a point to 1,233.42. > > > > > > > > -- > > > > Dan > > > > > > > > http://www.globexplorer.com/cfviewer/start.cfm > > > > > > > > http://www.corazon.org/ > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > - > > > > > > > > > > > > > - > > > > > > > > > > > - > > > > > - > - - - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 12 Mar 2001 08:29:42 -0500 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: [CANSLIM] Again! This is a multi-part message in MIME format. - ------=_NextPart_000_0027_01C0AACE.969E1020 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable Looks like another dreary dismal declining downer day. Futures swinging between 1 and 2.5% down, Japan lost 3.6% to another 15+ = year low, Europe down across the board 1-1.5%. When I get this irked by so many declining days, it usually means we = gotta be close to the bottom.=20 Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net ICQ # 5568838 - ------=_NextPart_000_0027_01C0AACE.969E1020 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
Looks like another dreary dismal declining downer=20 day.
 
Futures swinging between 1 and 2.5% down, Japan lost = 3.6% to=20 another 15+ year low, Europe down across the board 1-1.5%.
 
When I get this irked by so many declining days, it = usually=20 means we gotta be close to the bottom.

Tom Worley
stkguru@netside.net
ICQ #=20 5568838
 
 
- ------=_NextPart_000_0027_01C0AACE.969E1020-- - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 12 Mar 2001 08:37:59 -0500 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] ICUI This is a multi-part message in MIME format. - ------=_NextPart_000_0033_01C0AACF.BEC4E1E0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable Chart looks interesting. Got possibilities for those brave enough to = venture into this "M". Management owns 21% still, that's encouraging. = However funds already own 41% of the remaining float. And the weak = earnings growth in the past two quarters would make me want to see the = next quarter to be sure this is not a trend. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net ICQ # 5568838 ----- Original Message -----=20 From: Vanchee1@aol.com=20 To: canslim@xmission.com=20 Sent: Sunday, March 11, 2001 11:34 PM Subject: [CANSLIM] ICUI ICUI 84/89 B rating, some accumulation taking place on Fri, might be = worth=20 watching this one on Mon and Tues. see what kind (if any) action might = take=20 place.=20 Chris.=20 - ------=_NextPart_000_0033_01C0AACF.BEC4E1E0 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
Chart looks interesting. Got possibilities for those = brave=20 enough to venture into this "M". Management owns 21% still, that's = encouraging.=20 However funds already own 41% of the remaining float.  And the weak = earnings growth in the past two quarters would make me want to see the = next=20 quarter to be sure this is not a trend.

Tom Worley
stkguru@netside.net
ICQ # = 5568838
 
 
----- Original Message -----
From:=20 Vanchee1@aol.com=20
Sent: Sunday, March 11, 2001 = 11:34=20 PM
Subject: [CANSLIM] ICUI

ICUI 84/89 = B rating,=20 some accumulation taking place on Fri, might be worth
watching = this one on=20 Mon and Tues. see what kind (if any) action might take
place.=20

Chris. - ------=_NextPart_000_0033_01C0AACF.BEC4E1E0-- - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 12 Mar 2001 08:49:49 -0500 From: "Dan Forant" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] From: daily news, yahoo Who else............but you sir. Dan F - ----- Original Message ----- From: "Tom Worley" To: Sent: Sunday, March 11, 2001 10:52 PM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] From: daily news, yahoo > And you'll replace him with who?? > > Tom Worley > stkguru@netside.net > ICQ # 5568838 > > > ----- Original Message ----- > From: Dan Forant > To: > Sent: Sunday, March 11, 2001 2:54 PM > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] From: daily news, yahoo > > > Time for Greenspan to go bye bye. He served his purpose well for > years, now > his foresight is failing him. > > Dan F > ----- Original Message ----- > From: "Dan" > To: > Sent: Saturday, March 10, 2001 11:05 PM > Subject: [CANSLIM] From: daily news, yahoo > > > > > http://dailynews.yahoo.com/h/nm/20010310/bs/stocks_week_dc_1.html > > > > Saturday March 10 10:56 AM ET > > Is Greenspan Fighting Phantom > > Recession? > > > > By Pierre Belec > > > > NEW YORK (Reuters) - Nearly two years ago, Alan Greenspan > > (news - web sites) began raising interest rates to head off > > ``inflation'' and now he's chopping away at rates to head off > > ``recession.'' As it turned out, he was fighting phantom > inflation > > and people are wondering if he is now combating a phantom > > recession. > > > > One expert says the Federal Reserve (news - web sites) > > chairman has gotten it wrong before and he may be missing > > the bull's-eye, again. > > > > ``First, the Fed was raising rates to fight inflation, which > did not > > exist and now it is lowering rates to fight a recession, which > we > > feel does not exist,'' says Penny Russell, economist at H. C. > > Wainwright & Co., Economics Inc. > > > > While the Fed was raising interest rates to a 10-year high > > between 1999 and 2000, the Consumer Price Index (news - > > web sites), which tracks inflation at the retail level, edged > up > > less than 1.5 percentage points and the core rate that > excludes > > volatile food and energy prices went up even less. > > > > Greenspan's tight money policy succeeded too well as the > > economy's growth has nearly stalled. In January this year, the > > central bank launched a bold move: preemptive rate cuts for > > fear that the six interest-rate hikes had put the economy at > risk > > of recession. > > > > Smart move? No, says Russell, dismissing the Fed's > > assurance that it can figure out to the nth degree when the > > economy is facing a killer problem, like a recession. > > > > ``What's happening is that we have been through an economic > > period when things were so extraordinary and when they go > > back to just ordinary, people seem to be more concerned than > > they should,'' Russell says. > > > > DID GREENSPAN's RATE HIKES CHOKE ECONOMY? > > > > ``So it would appear,'' says Russell. ``But the truth is that > no > > one at the Fed -- not even its illustrious chairman -- is > capable > > of managing a large and complex economy like the U.S. or of > > knowing just when to raise and when to lower interest rates to > > keep growth within a predesignated range.'' > > > > Greenspan, who worried that the stock market was too > > high-priced in 1999, went on a rate-raising spree instead of > > allowing Wall Street to correct its excess in its own sweet > time. > > The result of this hands-on money policy: the rapid > destruction > > of $3 trillion in stock market wealth and disillusioned > > households that caused consumer confidence to plunge. > > > > Falling stock prices made a lot of Americans feel poor > > because many of them looked at the market during the great > > boom years between 1995 and 1999 as a savings account > > with tremendously good yields. > > > > The market's monster reversal, which sent the Nasdaq down an > > eye-popping 55 percent from its high during a 12-month > > period, shook consumer confidence in a New York minute. The > > reason that the apprehension spread so fast was because > > more than 50 percent of U.S. households have a stake in the > > stock market through retirement accounts. > > > > Russell favors benign neglect and monetary neutrality rather > > than the Fed's jockeying, which she says destabilizes both the > > economy and stock market. > > > > ``Now, if the Fed could be persuaded to leave rates alone and > > let all the ripples die out, there is no reason that the > economy > > could not get back on the fast track,'' she says. > > ``Noninterference would be even more stimulative than a tax > > cut.'' > > > > Greenspan and his fellow bankers have been known to fumble > > the ball. They misread the handwriting on the wall in 1990-91 > > when a recession was slamming the economy and fell asleep > > at the wheel. > > > > So the Fed, which is now racing to keep the economy from > > tipping into recession, is faced with a dilemma on whether to > > cut interest rates for a third time this year. It has made two > cuts > > each of 50 basis points in January after boosting rates by 175 > > basis points from June 1999 to May 2000. > > > > Russell says that if interest rates had been left alone in > > 1999-2000, the economy would have slowed down by itself, > > ``gently not abruptly and we would have been enjoying higher > > growth than we are now.'' > > > > The betting is that the Fed again will lower by 50 basis > points > > at its March 20 policy-setting meeting. > > > > Recession Isn'T In The Cards > > > > Even the numbers crunchers say that an old reliable measuring > > stick -- the nation's money supply, also known as M2 -- is not > > emitting signals of a recession. M2 has jumped at an annual > > rate of more than 10 percent over the last three months, which > > means the Fed is printing more money to pump up the > > softening economy. > > > > ``Since the M2 series began in 1959, the U.S. economy has > > never entered a recession with the real M2 growth this high,'' > > says Paul Kasriel, head of economic research at Northern > > Trust Co. ``The additional 50 basis points of cuts we are > > forecasting to occur by March 20 would be expected to boost > > nominal M2 growth still more.'' > > > > Russell says the Fed appears to be focusing too much on > > momentary changes in the economy. > > > > ``The central bank is overreacting to what is happening in the > > economy,'' she says. ``It was astounding how precipitous the > > Fed was in lowering interest rates in January,'' she says. > ``It > > was completely out of character for the central bankers to > lower > > interest rates twice in the same month.'' > > > > Russell says that the Fed chairman raised interest rates in > > 1999 and 2000 because he saw inflation ghosts, then he cut > > rates in January simply out of ``fear of fear itself.'' > > > > ``The current economic situation does not justify January's > rate > > cuts,'' she says. ``Just a year or two ago, monetary policy > > appeared to be focused on fighting phantom inflation, now it > > appears to be focused on fighting a phantom recession.'' > > > > Even some Fed officials don't see a recession on the horizon. > This > > week, Federal > > Reserve Bank of Dallas President Robert McTeer struck an > upbeat note on > > the U.S. > > slowdown, saying he expected the country to avoid a recession > and was > > encouraged by > > the latest economic conditions. > > > > Also, Richmond Fed President Alfred Broaddus said recently > that chances > > were ``pretty > > high'' that the United States was not facing a broad economic > drop, but > > rather a slowdown > > centered in manufacturing companies. > > > > Not The Stuff Recessions Are Made Of > > > > The nation's jobless rate held steady at 4.2 percent and > payrolls > > outside the farm sector > > jumped by 135,000 in February after gaining 224,000 in > January. > > > > New cars are still rolling off the nation's dealership lots. > Americans > > bought vehicles at an > > annual rate of 17.5 million in February, despite an economic > slowdown > > and a plunge in > > consumer confidence. In January, consumers snapped up > automobiles at > > the fastest pace > > in four months. > > > > The Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi and UBS Warburg's Weekly Chain > Store Sales > > Snapshot > > estimated that retail sales in February grew by 2.5 percent > vs. a year > > ago. > > > > Housing starts were the highest in nine months in January as > mortgage > > rates tracked the > > downward slide in the Fed's interest rates and sales of > previously > > owned homes rose 3.8 > > percent in January. > > > > Additionally, the service sector that generates a whopping 80 > percent > > of the nation's jobs > > held steady in February, even though manufacturing, which > creates only > > 20 percent of the > > jobs, was in recession. For the manufacturers, it was a > self-inflicted > > wound because they > > ignored signs last summer that the economy was slowing and > kept > > producing goods until > > they gagged on their bloated inventories. > > > > Another positive indicator is the stock market. The Dow Jones > > industrial average is within > > flirting distance of the 11,000-point level, which would seem > to > > contradict the view that the > > economy is going to hell in a handbasket. The Nasdaq market, > which sent > > technology > > stocks through the roof during the Great Bull Run, may be down > a > > bone-jarring 55 percent, > > but that market does not truly reflect the economy. > > > > ``These are hardly a recession signal,'' says Russell. > ''Further, when > > the stock market and > > short-term interest rates are in agreement on a forecast for > the > > economy -- as they are > > now -- they are rarely wrong.'' > > > > Bill Valentine, president of Valentine Ventures LLC, says the > stock > > market traditionally > > leads the economy by six to nine months. > > > > ``That means the market falls before the economy does and > recovers in > > advance as well,'' > > he says. ``If this is a recession, we won't get official > confirmation > > of such until April of 2001 > > and by then, it will be seven months old -- and too late to do > anything > > about it.'' > > > > Over the last 30 years, in every recession except in 1973-75, > the > > market had bottomed out > > or would start to rally within three months of the time people > got a > > whiff that there was a > > recession. > > > > Valentine's bet: even if a recession occurs, stocks will hold > up > > because Wall Street has > > already assumed that it is an accomplished fact. > > > > ``If we do get a recession, it will be very slight and short, > by > > historical standards -- two or > > three quarters, max,'' he says. ''The arsenal of interest > rates and > > (President George W. > > Bush (news - web sites)'s) tax cuts will stave off an economic > > catastrophe.'' > > > > For the week, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 178.31 > points at > > 10,644.62. The > > Nasdaq Composite Index was off 64.85 at 2,052.78 and the > Standard & > > Poor's 500 index > > slipped 0.76 of a point to 1,233.42. > > > > -- > > Dan > > > > http://www.globexplorer.com/cfviewer/start.cfm > > > > http://www.corazon.org/ > > > > > > > > - > > > > > - > > > > - > - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 12 Mar 2001 08:54:51 -0500 From: "Dan Forant" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Again! This is a multi-part message in MIME format. - ------=_NextPart_000_001B_01C0AAD2.194FFB20 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable Let's see, the bottom rumors started around March 2000? Could this be an = abyss? Dan F ----- Original Message -----=20 From: Tom Worley=20 To: CANSLIM=20 Sent: Monday, March 12, 2001 8:29 AM Subject: [CANSLIM] Again! Looks like another dreary dismal declining downer day. Futures swinging between 1 and 2.5% down, Japan lost 3.6% to another = 15+ year low, Europe down across the board 1-1.5%. When I get this irked by so many declining days, it usually means we = gotta be close to the bottom.=20 Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net ICQ # 5568838 - ------=_NextPart_000_001B_01C0AAD2.194FFB20 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
Let's see, the bottom rumors started around March = 2000? Could=20 this be an abyss?
 
Dan  F
----- Original Message -----
From:=20 Tom = Worley=20
To: CANSLIM
Sent: Monday, March 12, 2001 = 8:29=20 AM
Subject: [CANSLIM] Again!

Looks like another dreary dismal declining downer=20 day.
 
Futures swinging between 1 and 2.5% down, Japan = lost 3.6% to=20 another 15+ year low, Europe down across the board = 1-1.5%.
 
When I get this irked by so many declining days, = it usually=20 means we gotta be close to the bottom.

Tom Worley
stkguru@netside.net
ICQ #=20 5568838
 
 
- ------=_NextPart_000_001B_01C0AAD2.194FFB20-- - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 12 Mar 2001 08:54:29 -0600 From: "walter nusbaum" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Again! This is a multi-part message in MIME format. - ------=_NextPart_000_0254_01C0AAD2.0C40C7C0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable Hi guys, From U.S. News & WR, 3/5/01, "Hibernating Bears in a Down Market"; Both = Profunds and Rydex saw heavy withdrawals in 2000 and continued = withdrawals for 2001 from their bear funds. "Even after a year of routs = and aborted rallies, investors' optimism somehow seems = irrepressible......... True to their reputation for being the ultimate = contrary indicator, small investors will pile into bear-market funds = right at the market bottom.....We'll have the most money in the short = funds at the very time it shouldn't be there". Best wishes, Walt ----- Original Message -----=20 From: Dan Forant=20 To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20 Sent: Monday, March 12, 2001 7:54 AM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Again! Let's see, the bottom rumors started around March 2000? Could this be = an abyss? Dan F ----- Original Message -----=20 From: Tom Worley=20 To: CANSLIM=20 Sent: Monday, March 12, 2001 8:29 AM Subject: [CANSLIM] Again! Looks like another dreary dismal declining downer day. Futures swinging between 1 and 2.5% down, Japan lost 3.6% to another = 15+ year low, Europe down across the board 1-1.5%. When I get this irked by so many declining days, it usually means we = gotta be close to the bottom.=20 Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net ICQ # 5568838 - ------=_NextPart_000_0254_01C0AAD2.0C40C7C0 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
Hi guys,
From U.S. News & WR, 3/5/01, "Hibernating Bears = in a Down=20 Market"; Both Profunds and Rydex saw  heavy withdrawals in 2000 and = continued withdrawals for 2001 from their bear funds. "Even after a = year of=20 routs and aborted rallies, investors' optimism somehow seems=20 irrepressible......... True to their reputation for being the ultimate = contrary=20 indicator, small investors will pile into bear-market funds right at the = market=20 bottom.....We'll have the most money in the short funds at the very time = it=20 shouldn't be there".
Best wishes,
Walt
 
----- Original Message -----
From:=20 Dan=20 Forant
Sent: Monday, March 12, 2001 = 7:54=20 AM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] = Again!

Let's see, the bottom rumors started around March = 2000?=20 Could this be an abyss?
 
Dan  F
----- Original Message -----
From:=20 Tom=20 Worley
To: CANSLIM
Sent: Monday, March 12, 2001 = 8:29=20 AM
Subject: [CANSLIM] = Again!

Looks like another dreary dismal declining = downer=20 day.
 
Futures swinging between 1 and 2.5% down, Japan = lost 3.6%=20 to another 15+ year low, Europe down across the board = 1-1.5%.
 
When I get this irked by so many declining days, = it=20 usually means we gotta be close to the bottom.

Tom Worley
stkguru@netside.net
ICQ # = 5568838
 
 
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