From: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com (canslim-digest)
To: canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com
Subject: canslim-digest V2 #1208
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canslim-digest       Wednesday, March 14 2001       Volume 02 : Number 1208



In this issue:

       HSE (was Re: [CANSLIM] Has bear mkt hit bottom?)
       Re: [CANSLIM] shorting
       Re: [CANSLIM] investment of time and money
       Re: [CANSLIM] Heaven
       Re: [CANSLIM] CNTL
       Re: [CANSLIM] Heaven (or Hell, for the sane among us)
       Re: [CANSLIM] Heaven (or Hell, for the sane among us)
       Re: [CANSLIM] Heaven (or Hell, for the sane among us)
       Re: [CANSLIM] CNTL
       Re: [CANSLIM] Heaven (or Hell, for the sane among us)
       Re: [CANSLIM] Heaven (or Hell, for the sane among us)

----------------------------------------------------------------------

Date: Wed, 14 Mar 2001 20:06:35 -0500
From: "Tom Worley" <stkguru@netside.net>
Subject: HSE (was Re: [CANSLIM] Has bear mkt hit bottom?)

Hi Tim,

Aside from it closing at the low of the day on 2X ADV, looks
interesting. Got some very impressive (mostly triple digit)
earnings and sales increases, even forecasted earnings indicating
+89% this year, but then -9% next year.

I also noticed they bought back over 400K shares under $14 last
October. Good deal for shareholders with stock now at $45.

Tom Worley
stkguru@netside.net
ICQ # 5568838


- ----- Original Message -----
From: Tim Fisher <Tim@OreRockOn.com>
To: <canslim@lists.xmission.com>
Sent: Wednesday, March 14, 2001 11:14 AM
Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] Has bear mkt hit bottom?


<snip>

P.P.S. HSE 77/96/85 A+A+A seems to be forming a handle *above*
the old
high. What does the group make of this chart? Bloody interesting
looking to me.




- -

------------------------------

Date: Wed, 14 Mar 2001 20:20:27 -0500
From: "Tom Worley" <stkguru@netside.net>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] shorting

Walter, you did an excellent job (better than I could have done)
in answering Ann's question.  I would add emphasis to your
remarks that a gap (especially when it was down, and double
especially when it also reversed a prior uptrend) become distinct
points of future resistance.

Ann, I also want to repeat that since I am only reviewing stock
charts where the stock is trading at or close to its 12 month
high, I am more often looking at gap ups that continued an
uptrend. But In the past months, I was also seeing stocks close
to highs that had a prior gap down that reversed a prior uptrend.

Walter's words put into plain English what I believed intuitively
(or from experience, not sure which) that when I saw a chart like
that, it impressed me.  I will try to mention any I see this
weekend when I do my review so members can see some examples.

I would expect that if I looked at a list of stocks hitting new
lows, then I would see a lot of them with gaps down, both
continuing the downtrend as well as reversing a prior uptrend,
but that have never filled the gap.

Tom Worley
stkguru@netside.net
ICQ # 5568838


- ----- Original Message -----
From: walter nusbaum <wnusbaum@airmail.net>
To: <canslim@lists.xmission.com>
Sent: Wednesday, March 14, 2001 6:45 PM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] shorting


Ann,
A gap up occurs when both the opening and close are above the
previous day's
close; the opposite for a gap down. Gaps are regarded as
continuation
indicators, since they are strong moves in the direction of the
trend. Gaps
may also occur in the opposite direction at a top or a bottom in
which case
the previous trend may be broken. If subsequent moves fill the
gap, then the
previous trend is considered restored. I don't know, but I
suspect that
there are some unfilled gaps out there somewhere.

Gaps can also indicate support or resistance until that gap is
filled. A
case in point are the recent moves in the NASDAQ. Two very large
gaps
occurred on the 9th and 12th of March and are large resistance
areas. There
is also a smaller gap down on the 8th.These gaps must be filled
before the
NASDAQ can be considered to have reversed itself regardless of
any "follow
through" day(s) that we may get. I believe the NAS must close
above 2224
before we can consider it "safe", even then..........

There were also three gaps up on the 5th, 6th, and 7th of March.
These were
relatively weak moves and the subsequent down-gaps blew right
through them,
which adds even more weight to the down-gapped areas. Ann, I am
by no means
skilled in technical analysis, but this is the way I read it.
Perhaps others
more knowledgeable will add something. Hope this helps.
Best wishes,
Walt

- ----- Original Message -----
From: "Ann Hollingworth" <annholly@mediaone.net>
To: <canslim@lists.xmission.com>
Sent: Wednesday, March 14, 2001 3:28 PM
Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] shorting


> What does this mean? I have heard it mentioned before on this
mailing list
> but don't get it.
>
> The adage that the gap (up or down) will almost always get
filled in (with
> the
> exception possibly of an acquisition buyout offer) seems to
generally hold
> true.
>
> Thanks.
>
> Ann
>
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com
> [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of Tom
Worley
> Sent: Tuesday, March 13, 2001 9:34 PM
> To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
> Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] shorting
>
>
> Patrick, I have been surprised at the number of stocks I have
> reviewed over the past month or so that were completing a cup
> formation that started with a large gap down. The adage that
the
> gap (up or down) will almost always get filled in (with the
> exception possibly of an acquisition buyout offer) seems to
> generally hold true.  Of course, my review is biased as I was
> only looking at stocks at or within 5% of their 12 month high.
>
> Tom Worley
> stkguru@netside.net
> ICQ # 5568838
(Snip)




- -




- -

------------------------------

Date: Wed, 14 Mar 2001 20:24:36 -0500
From: "Tom Worley" <stkguru@netside.net>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] investment of time and money

Ann, when I had to drop my subscription due both lack of money
and time, I still tried to pick up the Friday edition and review
it. I had more time on the weekend, and it has a lot of "review"
kind of stuff. To save money, most big libraries have a
subscription, and you could try taking a couple hours to yourself
on a Saturday afternoon.

Tom Worley
stkguru@netside.net
ICQ # 5568838


- ----- Original Message -----
From: Ann Hollingworth <annholly@mediaone.net>
To: CANSLIM Listserv <canslim@lists.xmission.com>
Sent: Wednesday, March 14, 2001 4:33 PM
Subject: [CANSLIM] investment of time and money


Unfortunately I have to end my sub*****tion to IBD because of
money and the
time I am spending on Canslim (family issue). It's a tough move
for me to
make, especially right now. Does anyone have any suggestions
about alternate
ways to study CANSLIM--maybe screens? Ways that are less
time-consuming.
Must put my son and husband and second job first.

Ann


- -



- -

------------------------------

Date: Wed, 14 Mar 2001 18:29:41 -0700
From: DougC <dzc@qwest.net>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Heaven

I'll agree and also put in my .02. I remember reading once that 90% of the 
people
going into casinos have no idea what the odds are for the games they are
playing. I believe that that rule probably would apply to investing as well.
My understanding of the purpose of
having guidelines like CANSLIM is to tilt the odds in our favor. Sure, there
are stocks with good numbers still making new highs. But that's only part
of the formula. The other part, as Fanus, Earl and many others have confirmed
here recently, M, is not where it should be according to CANSLIM for us to
have the ODDS IN OUR FAVOR.  Two stocks talked about here recently that
have good CANSLIM numbers are TRR and DAKT. Both are breaking down.
Mostly due to M.
Chris..if you want to play such stocks in this market environment and are going
for small pops on breakouts and feel you are safe with tight stops then I 
applaud
your heroism and I hope it works for you. But you're completely 
disregarding the
most important part of the CANSLIM strategy we are all following here. Our 
purpose
on this site is to help educate each other on this strategy and not how to use
only part of it as part of a high risk strategy. You've been continually 
telling us
that the market is oversold. We don't need to hear that. We already know that.
We're waiting for a  market followthru and setups on stocks meeting the CANSLIM
criteria. That's it.





  At 05:10 PM 3/14/01 -0600, you wrote:
>I am no CANSLIM expert.  Only started last year and with the state of the
>markets haven't had much change to buy anything.  BUT....  I thouhgt the "M"
>in CANSLIM is for the current state of the Market.  Here is how I see the
>current state of M:
>
>NASDAQ down 60% from the top.
>S&P 500 down over 20%
>DOW Just crashed through the 10 000 support.
>According to briefing.com 88% of the volume on the NYSE was contributed to
>down stocks where declining ones beat advancing ones by 3:1.
>
>This is telling me that this is not just tech stocks getting hammered, but all
>stocks accross the board.
>
>All in all, I think this is fairly safe to say M is in really bad shape. I
>just can't see how this can be a good time to get in according to CANSLIM.  At
>this stage there are NO CANSLIM stocks as M would disqualify everything
>regardless of any of the other attributes.
>
>As I said, I am not expert and this is just my opinion.  I am definitely not
>buying anything right now.
>
>- Fanus
>
>Vanchee1@aol.com wrote:
>Many stocks still making new highs, RCII, ICUI, and many others holding up
>very well, no better time to be fully invested (long) than now. Just stay
>away from tech stocks for the next few quarters and buy the leaders as they
>appear and sell them as they fade.
>
>Chris
>
>-
>
>
>____________________________________________________________________
>Get free email and a permanent address at http://www.netaddress.com/?N=1
>
>-


- -

------------------------------

Date: Wed, 14 Mar 2001 20:29:53 -0500
From: "Tom Worley" <stkguru@netside.net>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] CNTL

Absolutely not. A 30.4% drop in just over two weeks does not
represent a strong stock, even given "M".

Despite its CANSLIM nrs at present, it needs to either rebound
close to 20, or build a fresh base around 14 or 15. If it did
rebound, tho, it might end up having to do some serious
consolidation there, so might be worth waiting to see if it could
break higher.

Having said that so distinctly, watch it rebound. I seem to be
more wrong than right lately, tho I am now starting to wonder
about a 75 basis point cut by the Feds next week??

Tom Worley
stkguru@netside.net
ICQ # 5568838


- ----- Original Message -----
From: <Vanchee1@aol.com>
To: <canslim@lists.xmission.com>
Sent: Wednesday, March 14, 2001 4:59 PM
Subject: [CANSLIM] CNTL


CNTL 97/99 AAA, back down to its 50 dma, would you consider this
a second
chance to get in or no?

Chris

- -



- -

------------------------------

Date: Wed, 14 Mar 2001 20:51:44 EST
From: Vanchee1@aol.com
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Heaven (or Hell, for the sane among us)

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Some interesting thoughts, although big money is funds which are a lot of 
small investors put together, as the small guys run in herds this equals the 
bigger boys holding their money and selling. And I really do doubt that our 
economy is as gloom and doom and ready to rollover & die as you think, maybe 
its just your portfolio giving you such negativity. I see it as just a 
slowing economy which we experience about every 5 or so years.

PS, one of the biggest problems with the NAZ was the dot.coms, note, I said 
one.

Chris.

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<HTML><FONT FACE=arial,helvetica><FONT  SIZE=2>Some interesting thoughts, although big money is funds which are a lot of 
<BR>small investors put together, as the small guys run in herds this equals the 
<BR>bigger boys holding their money and selling. And I really do doubt that our 
<BR>economy is as gloom and doom and ready to rollover &amp; die as you think, maybe 
<BR>its just your portfolio giving you such negativity. I see it as just a 
<BR>slowing economy which we experience about every 5 or so years.
<BR>
<BR>PS, one of the biggest problems with the NAZ was the dot.coms, note, I said 
<BR>one.
<BR>
<BR>Chris.</FONT></HTML>

- --part1_90.117b09be.27e17a30_boundary--

- -

------------------------------

Date: Wed, 14 Mar 2001 21:01:47 -0500
From: "Tom Worley" <stkguru@netside.net>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Heaven (or Hell, for the sane among us)

This is a multi-part message in MIME format.

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	charset="iso-8859-1"
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Chris,

I will agree with you that many new investors, even ones with several =
years exciting and profitable experience under the belt, are still =
experiencing their very first true bear market. As I recall, you =
previously mentioned that you have the time to sit in front of a =
computer all day, I presume this means you are either retired, or are =
financially independent and invest for more of a hobby and fun than to =
make money, or are making your living as a daytrader. Most of us have a =
day job, and CANSLIM is designed to turn the odds in our favor so we do =
not have to watch either the markets or a particular stock on a minute =
by minute basis. Truth is, most true investors don't have the right =
gambling instincts for that kind of intensity, even if they have the =
time.

I do feel, as I posted a week or two ago, that we are close to =
bottoming. I was once again wrong in timing, but only committed a small =
portion of my available cash. I now take an even more cautious view, and =
preserve the rest of my cash until my convictions become even greater.

Because "M" is so bad, and not just here in USA (the FTSE - the UK index =
- - just passed into bear territory today, and of course Japan is at a 16 =
YEAR low, with many of its banks about to get a financial rating =
downgrade, AGAIN), this makes for a great time to study and examine the =
few stocks that not only have held up, but have great CANSLIM qualities. =
It's a time to watch, listen, read, study, and learn. If our members do =
that, they will be well prepared for the eventual reversal in this clear =
bear market.=20

Right now, investor sentiment, even that of analysts and institutional =
money managers, appears to be getting increasingly depressed. Many will =
not pay attention to "M" until it is way too late. It's easy to fall =
into that depression, this group is good for waking people up to =
preparing for the eventual recovery. This is a good time to be =
discussing and refining our individual opinions of when it is right (for =
each of us individually) to re-enter the market. But for those with a =
day job, and trying to adhere more or less to the principles of CANSLIM, =
then this is definitely a time to hoard cash, identify leader stocks and =
leader groups, watch for follow through (and distribution) days, and =
prepare.

I respect your time, ability and willingness to try to make money in a =
bear market. But it is not fair to presume that others with maybe less =
time to dedicate, or experience or understanding, should follow your =
lead. Your exhortations, at best, will only confuse. At worst, they =
could cost some decent people some real money they should not have lost.

I support Tim's, and other members, comments that "M" is wrong for =
CANSLIM investing right now.

Tom Worley
stkguru@netside.net
ICQ # 5568838


  ----- Original Message -----=20
  From: Vanchee1@aol.com=20
  To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20
  Sent: Wednesday, March 14, 2001 7:19 PM
  Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Heaven (or Hell, for the sane among us)


  One of the problems with the M now is not so much that earnings are =
slowing a=20
  bit, but there are many new and green investors who have never =
experienced a=20
  bear market.  They are running scared selling anything and everything, =
only=20
  after they lost 20 to 50%. A slowdown in the tech sector should be=20
  anticipated from time to time, this IMHO does not justify the overall =
and=20
  widespread free fall of all stocks. I know in this market most find it =
very=20
  hard to pull the trigger and buy, and that is fine, everyone needs to =
feel=20
  comfortable and sleep well at night. I do not bash anyone that wants =
to be in=20
  cash right now. For me I am enjoying the market jumping around from =
stock to=20
  stock and many times back again to the same ones, I still manage to =
make my=20
  portfolio grow weekly and sleep well at night. I feel that when the =
market=20
  turns I will be well positioned to reap the benefits from the bottom =
up. Like=20
  WO just wrote a few days ago in IBD (investors corner) during a bear =
or down=20
  market like we our surely in, now is the time to be picking the next =
leaders=20
  and act when the market turns, so we need our buy candidates on watch, =

  because this market could turn fast and leave you out.=20

  Chris.=20

- ------=_NextPart_000_00AF_01C0ACC9.FC0EB480
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<HTML><HEAD>
<META content=3D"text/html; charset=3Diso-8859-1" =
http-equiv=3DContent-Type>
<META content=3D"MSHTML 5.00.2314.1000" name=3DGENERATOR>
<STYLE></STYLE>
</HEAD>
<BODY bgColor=3D#ffffff>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>Chris,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>I will agree with you that many new investors, even =
ones with=20
several years exciting and profitable experience under the belt, are =
still=20
experiencing their very first true bear market. As I recall, you =
previously=20
mentioned that you have the time to sit in front of a computer all day, =
I=20
presume this means you are either retired, or are financially =
independent and=20
invest for more of a hobby and fun than to make money, or are making =
your living=20
as a daytrader. Most of us have a day job, and CANSLIM is designed to =
turn the=20
odds in our favor so we do not have to watch either the markets or a =
particular=20
stock on a minute by minute basis. Truth is, most true investors don't =
have the=20
right gambling instincts for that kind of intensity, even if they have =
the=20
time.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>I do feel, as I posted a week or two ago, that we =
are close to=20
bottoming. I was once again wrong in timing, but only committed a small =
portion=20
of my available cash. I now take an even more cautious view, and =
preserve the=20
rest of my cash until my convictions become even greater.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>Because "M" is so bad, and not just here in USA (the =
FTSE -=20
the UK index - just passed into bear territory today, and of course =
Japan is at=20
a 16 YEAR&nbsp;low, with many of its banks about to get a financial =
rating=20
downgrade, AGAIN), this makes for a great time to study and examine the =
few=20
stocks that not only have held up, but have great CANSLIM qualities. =
It's a time=20
to watch, listen, read, study, and learn. If our members do that, they =
will be=20
well prepared for the eventual reversal in this clear bear market. =
</FONT></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>Right now, investor sentiment, even that of analysts =
and=20
institutional money managers, appears to be getting increasingly =
depressed. Many=20
will not pay attention to "M" until it is way too late. It's easy to =
fall into=20
that depression, this group is good for waking people up to preparing =
for the=20
eventual recovery. This is a good time to be discussing and refining our =

individual opinions of when it is right (for each of us individually) to =

re-enter the market. But for those with a day job, and trying to adhere =
more or=20
less to the principles of CANSLIM, then this is definitely a time to =
hoard cash,=20
identify leader stocks and leader groups, watch for follow through (and=20
distribution) days, and prepare.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>I respect your time, ability and willingness to try =
to make=20
money in a bear market. But it is not fair to presume that others with =
maybe=20
less time to dedicate, or experience or understanding, should follow =
your lead.=20
Your exhortations, at best, will only confuse. At worst, they could cost =
some=20
decent people some real money they should not have lost.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>I support Tim's, and other members, comments that =
"M" is wrong=20
for CANSLIM investing right now.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><BR>Tom Worley<BR><A=20
href=3D"mailto:stkguru@netside.net">stkguru@netside.net</A><BR>ICQ # =
5568838</DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE=20
style=3D"BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-RIGHT: =
0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px">
  <DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
  <DIV=20
  style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: =
black"><B>From:</B>=20
  <A href=3D"mailto:Vanchee1@aol.com" =
title=3DVanchee1@aol.com>Vanchee1@aol.com</A>=20
  </DIV>
  <DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A=20
  href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com"=20
  title=3Dcanslim@lists.xmission.com>canslim@lists.xmission.com</A> =
</DIV>
  <DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Wednesday, March 14, 2001 =
7:19=20
  PM</DIV>
  <DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> Re: [CANSLIM] Heaven =
(or Hell,=20
  for the sane among us)</DIV>
  <DIV><BR></DIV><FONT face=3Darial,helvetica><FONT size=3D2>One of the =
problems=20
  with the M now is not so much that earnings are slowing a <BR>bit, but =
there=20
  are many new and green investors who have never experienced a <BR>bear =
market.=20
  &nbsp;They are running scared selling anything and everything, only =
<BR>after=20
  they lost 20 to 50%. A slowdown in the tech sector should be =
<BR>anticipated=20
  from time to time, this IMHO does not justify the overall and =
<BR>widespread=20
  free fall of all stocks. I know in this market most find it very =
<BR>hard to=20
  pull the trigger and buy, and that is fine, everyone needs to feel=20
  <BR>comfortable and sleep well at night. I do not bash anyone that =
wants to be=20
  in <BR>cash right now. For me I am enjoying the market jumping around =
from=20
  stock to <BR>stock and many times back again to the same ones, I still =
manage=20
  to make my <BR>portfolio grow weekly and sleep well at night. I feel =
that when=20
  the market <BR>turns I will be well positioned to reap the benefits =
from the=20
  bottom up. Like <BR>WO just wrote a few days ago in IBD (investors =
corner)=20
  during a bear or down <BR>market like we our surely in, now is the =
time to be=20
  picking the next leaders <BR>and act when the market turns, so we need =
our buy=20
  candidates on watch, <BR>because this market could turn fast and leave =
you=20
  out. <BR><BR>Chris.</FONT> </FONT></BLOCKQUOTE></BODY></HTML>

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------------------------------

Date: Wed, 14 Mar 2001 21:18:14 EST
From: Vanchee1@aol.com
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Heaven (or Hell, for the sane among us)

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Tom, I totally agree with what you are saying. My main objective in my posts 
are to try and identify the current leaders and future leaders either to buy 
or to just put on our watch list, and buy when the time is right. This board 
need to focus alittle more on the winning stocks of today and tomorrow.

PS not retired much too young only 48. Self employed, work about 50% of the 
time, so I do have more time than most.

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<HTML><FONT FACE=arial,helvetica><FONT  SIZE=2>Tom, I totally agree with what you are saying. My main objective in my posts 
<BR>are to try and identify the current leaders and future leaders either to buy 
<BR>or to just put on our watch list, and buy when the time is right. This board 
<BR>need to focus alittle more on the winning stocks of today and tomorrow.
<BR>
<BR>PS not retired much too young only 48. Self employed, work about 50% of the 
<BR>time, so I do have more time than most.</FONT></HTML>

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------------------------------

Date: 14 Mar 2001 18:23:05 -0800
From: "Tim Fisher" <tim@orerockon.com>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] CNTL

NOOO! Don't even THINK it! Then if we DON'T get a 75 point cut everything 
will go straight to Hell! Shame on you Tom!

At 08:29 PM 3/14/2001 -0500, you wrote:
>Absolutely not. A 30.4% drop in just over two weeks does not
>represent a strong stock, even given "M".
>
>Despite its CANSLIM nrs at present, it needs to either rebound
>close to 20, or build a fresh base around 14 or 15. If it did
>rebound, tho, it might end up having to do some serious
>consolidation there, so might be worth waiting to see if it could
>break higher.
>
>Having said that so distinctly, watch it rebound. I seem to be
>more wrong than right lately, tho I am now starting to wonder
>about a 75 basis point cut by the Feds next week??
>
>Tom Worley
>stkguru@netside.net
>ICQ # 5568838
>
>
>----- Original Message -----
>From: <Vanchee1@aol.com>
>To: <canslim@lists.xmission.com>
>Sent: Wednesday, March 14, 2001 4:59 PM
>Subject: [CANSLIM] CNTL
>
>
>CNTL 97/99 AAA, back down to its 50 dma, would you consider this
>a second
>chance to get in or no?
>
>Chris
>
>-
>
>
>
>-

Tim Fisher, 1995 President, Pacific Fishery Biologists
Ore-ROCK-On Rockhounding Web Site
PFB Information
mailto:tim@OreRockOn.com
WWW http://OreRockOn.com


- -

------------------------------

Date: 14 Mar 2001 18:26:23 -0800
From: "Tim Fisher" <tim@orerockon.com>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Heaven (or Hell, for the sane among us)

Read the newspaper. Watch CNN. Do you think Japan can be at a 18 year low 
and NOT effect the world economy? The US heads into a recession and NO BIG 
DEAL? Wrong. The Asian crisis brought the world economic expansion to a 
halt a few years back, Japan can do the same thing now, esp. with the US 
headed down. And no, my portfolio is beating the indices, all of them, 
every day, and that is all I can ask for.

At 08:51 PM 3/14/2001 -0500, you wrote:
>Some interesting thoughts, although big money is funds which are a lot of
>small investors put together, as the small guys run in herds this equals the
>bigger boys holding their money and selling. And I really do doubt that our
>economy is as gloom and doom and ready to rollover & die as you think, maybe
>its just your portfolio giving you such negativity. I see it as just a
>slowing economy which we experience about every 5 or so years.
>
>PS, one of the biggest problems with the NAZ was the dot.coms, note, I said
>one.
>
>Chris.

Tim Fisher, 1995 President, Pacific Fishery Biologists
Ore-ROCK-On Rockhounding Web Site
PFB Information
mailto:tim@OreRockOn.com
WWW http://OreRockOn.com


- -

------------------------------

Date: Wed, 14 Mar 2001 21:50:53 -0500
From: "Tom Worley" <stkguru@netside.net>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Heaven (or Hell, for the sane among us)

This is a multi-part message in MIME format.

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Chris,

I am going to disagree completely with your understanding of how things =
really work in the securities industry. Feel free to hit the DELETE =
button right now.






For anyone else still reading, you can move half a million dollars from =
your money market fund to your aggressive fund today (transfer effective =
after the close, but known to both fund managers before the close). But =
that in no way guarantees that the aggressive fund manager will do a =
thing with your cash but sit on it.  Unless it is close to the last day =
of the quarter, the fund manager can sit on a cesspool of cash, and do =
nothing. If it is the last day of the quarter, he may park it in pretty =
stocks for a day, then sell. He may stick it into defensive stocks.

The herd instinct can cause all the "small" investors (and many are =
anything but small) to jump back into growth or tech oriented funds, but =
that does not immediately translate into buy side pressure on those =
stocks unless the fund manager agrees with that.

I have spent years both understanding economic reports, as well as their =
relationship to the stock market. I don't claim to be an expert, but I =
do believe I understand the relationship. Do I believe we are headed for =
a recession? NO Do I believe the fear of a recession among financial =
professionals is greater than three months ago? YES Do I believe the US =
economy slowed faster than FOMC expected? YES Do I believe FOMC is =
nervous/scared about the possibility of a recession? YES=20

Because I am still working within the securities industry, I am exposed =
to what hundreds, even thousands, of individual investors are actually =
doing with their money. It does bias my perceptions and opinion =
somewhat, especially since I can see what the past successful ones, and =
the unsuccessful ones, are doing. And I do see some buying around the =
fringes, especially on the quality names that have been so battered =
down. I watched a young daytrader, with inherited cash who has lost a =
million or more in the past year, try to once again daytrade his =
favorite stock. Two round trips, lost three points plus on both. No =
surprise, he's not a good daytrader. This is a guy who has traded over =
$16 million of AOL in a single day, and today traded less than $50K of =
another stock. This all goes into my Mark One, Mod Zero human computer. =
And what comes out is an opinion. "M" is just not right at this time.

And my attitude is not biased negatively because of my portfolio, I am =
up about 20% or so this year, and holding right now despite "M". I could =
cash out and take money market interest rates for the next ten months, =
and still have a successful year. And I have never owned a dot com. And =
despite my personal tendency to always be fully invested, I am still =
sitting on more cash than at any time in the past three years, without a =
serious itch to spend it.

The "small" investor will not turn this market around. As is the =
historic practice, it will occur both when it should, for valid reasons =
supporting an expectation of improving conditions, AND when the money =
managers start committing the funds they have in reserve, either in cash =
or in defensive stocks.  And it's not only the mutual funds, the role =
here of the institutional investors is far greater than most perceive. =
That is why I like www.CompanySleuth.com for information. It has =
institutional investing information not available on most sites, even my =
so respected DGO.

The biggest problem with Naz, as well as with NYSE, AMEX, was valuation. =
Valuation is driven by expectation, and it was high, to the point that =
the S&P500 trailing PE ratio at one point was around 35, way, way over =
sustainable or historic levels. With the decline we have seen in this =
bear market, it is now down to the mid 20s, which is still way over =
historic levels even during decent economic growth times. Despite the =
magnitude of the declines we have had over the past year, valuations on =
virtually all stocks remain high. There is still downside risk to any =
investor but the daytrader. Unless we see a fairly rapid turnaround in =
earnings expectations, the trailing PE may STILL be too high.

Mr. G has managed this economy so well that we have not had to see a =
slowing economy in far more than your five year cycle. And if he does =
his job as well as I expect, this slowdown will be brief, and build a =
base from which the economy can successfully grow for many years to =
come.

Tom Worley
stkguru@netside.net
ICQ # 5568838


  ----- Original Message -----=20
  From: Vanchee1@aol.com=20
  To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20
  Sent: Wednesday, March 14, 2001 8:51 PM
  Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Heaven (or Hell, for the sane among us)


  Some interesting thoughts, although big money is funds which are a lot =
of=20
  small investors put together, as the small guys run in herds this =
equals the=20
  bigger boys holding their money and selling. And I really do doubt =
that our=20
  economy is as gloom and doom and ready to rollover & die as you think, =
maybe=20
  its just your portfolio giving you such negativity. I see it as just a =

  slowing economy which we experience about every 5 or so years.=20

  PS, one of the biggest problems with the NAZ was the dot.coms, note, I =
said=20
  one.=20

  Chris.=20

- ------=_NextPart_000_00C9_01C0ACD0.D85CA860
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<HTML><HEAD>
<META content=3D"text/html; charset=3Diso-8859-1" =
http-equiv=3DContent-Type>
<META content=3D"MSHTML 5.00.2314.1000" name=3DGENERATOR>
<STYLE></STYLE>
</HEAD>
<BODY bgColor=3D#ffffff>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>Chris,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>I am going to disagree completely with your =
understanding of=20
how things really work in the securities industry. Feel free to hit the =
DELETE=20
button right now.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>For anyone else still reading, you can move half a =
million=20
dollars from your money market fund to your aggressive fund today =
(transfer=20
effective after the close, but known to both fund managers before the =
close).=20
But that in no way guarantees that the aggressive fund manager will do a =
thing=20
with your cash but sit on it.&nbsp; Unless it is close to the last day =
of the=20
quarter, the fund manager can sit on a cesspool of cash, and do nothing. =
If it=20
is the last day of the quarter, he may park it in pretty stocks for a =
day, then=20
sell. He may stick it into defensive stocks.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>The herd instinct can cause all the "small" =
investors (and=20
many are anything but small) to jump back into growth or tech oriented =
funds,=20
but that does not immediately translate into buy side pressure on those =
stocks=20
unless the fund manager agrees with that.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>I have spent years both understanding economic =
reports, as=20
well as their relationship to the stock market. I don't claim to be an =
expert,=20
but I do believe I understand the relationship. Do I believe we are =
headed for a=20
recession? NO Do I believe the fear of a recession among financial =
professionals=20
is greater than three months ago? YES Do I believe the US economy slowed =
faster=20
than FOMC expected? YES Do I believe FOMC is nervous/scared about the=20
possibility of a recession? YES </FONT></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>Because I am still working within the securities =
industry, I=20
am exposed to what hundreds, even thousands, of individual investors are =

actually doing with their money. It does bias my perceptions and opinion =

somewhat, especially since I can see what the past successful ones, and =
the=20
unsuccessful ones, are doing. And I do see some buying around the =
fringes,=20
especially on the quality names that have been so battered down. I =
watched a=20
young daytrader, with inherited cash who has lost a million or more in =
the past=20
year, try to once again daytrade his favorite stock. Two round trips, =
lost three=20
points plus on both. No surprise, he's not a good daytrader. This is a =
guy who=20
has traded over $16 million of AOL in a single day, and today traded =
less than=20
$50K of another stock. This all goes into my Mark One, Mod Zero human =
computer.=20
And what comes out is an opinion. "M" is just not right at this=20
time.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>And my attitude is not biased negatively because of =
my=20
portfolio, I am up about 20% or so this year, and holding right now =
despite "M".=20
I could cash out and take money market interest rates for the next ten =
months,=20
and still have a successful year. And I have never owned a dot com. And =
despite=20
my personal tendency to always be fully invested, I am still sitting on =
more=20
cash than at any time in the past three years, without a serious itch to =
spend=20
it.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>The "small" investor will not turn this market =
around. As is=20
the historic practice, it will occur both when it should, for valid =
reasons=20
supporting an expectation of improving conditions,&nbsp;AND when the =
money=20
managers start committing the funds they have in reserve, either in cash =
or in=20
defensive stocks.&nbsp; And it's not only the mutual funds, the role =
here of the=20
institutional investors is far greater than most perceive. That is why I =
like <A=20
href=3D"http://www.CompanySleuth.com">www.CompanySleuth.com</A> for =
information.=20
It has institutional investing information not available on most sites, =
even my=20
so respected DGO.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>The biggest problem with Naz, as well as with NYSE, =
AMEX, was=20
valuation. Valuation is driven by expectation, and it was high, to the =
point=20
that the S&amp;P500 trailing PE ratio at one point was around 35, way, =
way over=20
sustainable or historic levels. With the decline we have seen in this =
bear=20
market, it is now down to the mid 20s, which is still way over historic =
levels=20
even during decent economic growth times. Despite the magnitude of the =
declines=20
we have had over the past year, valuations on virtually all stocks =
remain high.=20
There is still downside risk to any investor but the daytrader. Unless =
we see a=20
fairly rapid turnaround in earnings expectations, the trailing PE may =
STILL be=20
too high.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>Mr. G has managed this economy so well that we have =
not had to=20
see a slowing economy in far more than your five year cycle. And if he =
does his=20
job as well as I expect, this slowdown will be brief, and build a base =
from=20
which the economy can successfully grow for many years to =
come.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><BR>Tom Worley<BR><A=20
href=3D"mailto:stkguru@netside.net">stkguru@netside.net</A><BR>ICQ # =
5568838</DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE=20
style=3D"BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-RIGHT: =
0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px">
  <DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
  <DIV=20
  style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: =
black"><B>From:</B>=20
  <A href=3D"mailto:Vanchee1@aol.com" =
title=3DVanchee1@aol.com>Vanchee1@aol.com</A>=20
  </DIV>
  <DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A=20
  href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com"=20
  title=3Dcanslim@lists.xmission.com>canslim@lists.xmission.com</A> =
</DIV>
  <DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Wednesday, March 14, 2001 =
8:51=20
  PM</DIV>
  <DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> Re: [CANSLIM] Heaven =
(or Hell,=20
  for the sane among us)</DIV>
  <DIV><BR></DIV><FONT face=3Darial,helvetica><FONT size=3D2>Some =
interesting=20
  thoughts, although big money is funds which are a lot of <BR>small =
investors=20
  put together, as the small guys run in herds this equals the =
<BR>bigger boys=20
  holding their money and selling. And I really do doubt that our =
<BR>economy is=20
  as gloom and doom and ready to rollover &amp; die as you think, maybe =
<BR>its=20
  just your portfolio giving you such negativity. I see it as just a =
<BR>slowing=20
  economy which we experience about every 5 or so years. <BR><BR>PS, one =
of the=20
  biggest problems with the NAZ was the dot.coms, note, I said <BR>one.=20
  <BR><BR>Chris.</FONT> </FONT></BLOCKQUOTE></BODY></HTML>

- ------=_NextPart_000_00C9_01C0ACD0.D85CA860--


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------------------------------

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