From: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com (canslim-digest) To: canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Subject: canslim-digest V2 #133 Reply-To: canslim Sender: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Errors-To: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Precedence: bulk canslim-digest Monday, March 2 1998 Volume 02 : Number 133 In this issue: Re: [CANSLIM]New stock on my watch list: IFS [CANSLIM] Sending large files to the canslim group [CANSLIM] Elder's Triple Screens [CANSLIM] Re: ACRT and MTY - The Napeague Letter [CANSLIM] Eonomic Calendar Week of March 2, 1998 [CANSLIM] DISCLOSURE - PURW, EPIQ Re: [CANSLIM] Re: ACRT and MTY - The Napeague Letter Re: [CANSLIM] Eonomic Calendar Week of March 2, 1998 [CANSLIM] Callaway Golf? Re: [CANSLIM] THQI Re: [CANSLIM] DISCLOSURE - PURW, EPIQ Re: [CANSLIM] Callaway Golf? [CANSLIM] Big Cap Tech Stocks Re: [CANSLIM] Callaway Golf? Re: [CANSLIM] EPIQ (was DISCLOSURE - PURW, EPIQ) Re: [CANSLIM] Callaway Golf? [CANSLIM] The markets Re: [CANSLIM] Callaway Golf? Re: [CANSLIM] Big Cap Tech Stocks Re: [CANSLIM] EPIQ (was DISCLOSURE - PURW, EPIQ) ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Date: Sun, 01 Mar 1998 21:55:41 -0600 From: Dave Cameron Subject: Re: [CANSLIM]New stock on my watch list: IFS Johan Van Houtven wrote: > > IFS: > > "Fully integrated real-estate management organisation..." > > 75 67 A (not exactly the hottest numbers) No... but definitely not bad. Stocks in the 70/70 range have been doing a decent job of beating the market. > > GRS: 84 > > Funds: 48%. Ouch. This alone would probably scare me away.... > > ADV = 85K > > U/D 2.2 > > Timeliness: B > > Last real base @ 50DMA, forming secondary mini base. > > Personally I looking to get a 'few-day trade" out of it, if it break-out > from this mini-base on good volume. Hmm... doesn't sound very CANSLIM, but it is good to know we have varying "rules" to live by. > > - - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 02 Mar 1998 08:00:04 -0700 From: jeff@scrooge.csd.sdl.usu.edu (Jeff Salisbury) Subject: [CANSLIM] Sending large files to the canslim group Everyone, >From time to time, you may wish to share large files with our group (i.e. gif, jpeg, spreadsheets, etc). Our list is configured to reject large postings (even if they are properly encoded) since the sheer volume has caused problems in the past. As an alternative, we have provided an anonymous ftp site. To provide your file to the group, please follow these instructions: 1. Send your file to: "ftp://chaos.csd.sdl.usu.edu/pub/incoming/". See ftp instructions below. 2. Send mail to me directly at "jeff.salisbury@sdl.usu.edu" telling me the name of the file that you uploaded. I will move the file from the incoming directory, to the canslim directory where people will be able to download your file. 3. After I notify you that the file has been moved to the canslim directory, you should send an email to the canslim group describing your file, and its URL (i.e. ftp://chaos.csd.sdl.usu.edu/pub/canslim/GreatBoom.gif). Although this may seem unwieldy at first, it really isn't too bad and it solves more problems than it creates. You should note that I do not monitor my email on the weekends as closely as during the week. Therefore, steps 2-3 may take longer over a weekend. Best Regards, Jeff Salisbury =========================================================================== FTP Instructions: 1. Using Netscape, go to the URL: "ftp://chaos.csd.sdl.usu.edu/pub/incoming/". 2. On the Netscape "File" menu, select "Upload File..." This will open a file selection widget on your hard-drive. Select the file you wish to upload and hit the "Ok" button. At this point, your file will be uploaded. 3. Eventhough your file has been uploaded, you will not be able to see the file in your netscape browser. The reason for this is that the "incoming" directory is set to write-only for security reasons. - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 02 Mar 1998 20:45:18 -0700 From: "Joe J." Subject: [CANSLIM] Elder's Triple Screens Elder's book on Triple Screens is entitled "Trading for a Living" by Dr. Alexander Elder. He has his own web site at http://www.elder.com/ You can order the book there or get it at a book store. The "quiet times" could occur on any time frame since they depend on the chart you are looking at. For example, they would occur over a couple of weeks on a weekly chart, a couple of days on a daily chart, etc. All they refer to is days which have tight ranges from the high to low with probably average to below average volume. As you are aware with CANSLIM, on breakout days you are likely to see a long bar from the high to low point on huge volume. The main purpose of entering a trade during "quiet times" is to avoid paying a large spread bais towards the direction of the stock. Meaning, if you wanted to go long on a day where the stock was moving up fast, you are going to pay a higher entry price than if you bought during a quiet day when the range was tighter. I've entered into CANSLIM stocks with market orders on days when they were really moving up and ended up paying more than I thought I would when I ran the analysis the night before (i.e., on gap-up days). Of course it's all relative, sometimes I still bought at or near the low for the day. I was drawn to the "quiet days" concept because I just like the idea of buying the CANSLIM-type stocks on their pull-backs. The other questions appear to me more pointed towards Zoran's post so I'll defer those to him. Joe J. > Zoran, > Would you or someone give a reference as to Elder's > ?book on the "Triple Screen"? Also, is the "quiet > retracement an intraday or day on day phenomenon? > > What makes these events "quiet"? > > When you talk about past precedence and especially > support/resistance are you referring to trend lines > day on day with ?closing prices or ? > > Which moving average(s) do you prefer in this instance? > > How much high volume in relation to what? > > Is the "something wrong point" referring to the possibility > of breaking through the support level in the underlining > trend line? > > What calls your attention to such a stock? screen? > - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 02 Mar 1998 22:49:48 -0500 From: Craig Griffin Subject: [CANSLIM] Re: ACRT and MTY - The Napeague Letter - --- Sent this last night and it was never returned, so, once again ---- Hi all, Many of you may be familiar with the Napeague letter published by Bob Davis. Mr. Davis is an investor who seems to enjoy researching small cap and microcap stocks and publishing his opinion of those he selects. He uses a great deal of fundamental analysis as well as a bit of astute technical analysis. I have been following several of his recommended stocks and most are somewhat mediocre performers so far (due to the long term horizon necessary for value investing, perhaps). I do expect 1 or 2 or 3 of his picks to make some decent progress this year. MTY in particular looks like a "Canslim colt" to me, to coin a phrase, (under $12/share, but pretty solid Canslim numbers - wobbles on his legs, but might grow up to be a racehorse - or a nag). Mr. Davis also has a review of ACRT's trading over the past year - based on fundamental valuation and what appears to have been a "bear raid" on the stock. I found the article VERY insightful. It provides some additional reasons (beyond such things as a climax run) why a "Canslim stock" with good news can decline precipitously and suddenly (for example: overvaluation, short sellers, potential bad news feared from investors scanning the horizon, etc.). Overvaluation/undervaluation is not directly a Canslim factor of course, but many investors do invest based entirely on valuation models. These investors are a big force that often provide solid Canslim stocks with launch pads from their first stage bases as well as providing selling on the way up to the ultimate highs. Mr. Davis' description of a bear raid and some internet postings by a "Mr. Pink" are also eye openers. If you read the monthly table provided by Mr. Davis of "average trading days sold short" and compare it to price action, one can extrapolate that the rapid advance in ACRT's price from 07/18/97 to 07/31/97 was a short squeeze. I base this conclusion on the precipitous drop in short figures the following month (although Mr. Davis does not specifically refer to this price action in his article). Many of you who were on the Canslim list in July/August 97 may remember my wondering about that particular advance in ACRT at the time. Lots of cool stuff here. Mr. Davis apparently does it all as a sort of hobby, so his site and email newsletter are free. Take a look at the following URL for the ACRT article ---> http://www.napeague.com/acrt-discussion.html Best regards, Craig - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 2 Mar 1998 22:49:40 -0500 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: [CANSLIM] Eonomic Calendar Week of March 2, 1998 MONDAY Purchasing Mgr's Survey, for Feb, last was 52.4, expected was 52.5, and actual was 53.3 (conclusion by the mkt is that Asia is not really slowing down the US economic growth, hence the severe selloff in the bond mkt today, already weakened by Greenspan's comments to the Senate last week indicating that a rate cut was not likely). Personal Income, for Jan, last was up 0.4%, expected was up 0.8% and actual was 0.6% Personal Spending (consumption expenditures), for Jan, last was originally reported as up 0.3% and revised to up 0.4%, estimate was for up 0.3% and we got up 0.4% (over the revised nr) Construction Spending, for Jan, last was originally reported as up 0.%, and revised to up 0.5%, expected was up 0.5% and we got up 0.7% (over the upwardly revised nr). REMEMBER WHAT I SAID ABOUT THE GREATER SIGNIFICANCE IS OFTEN IN THE DIRECTION OF REVISION, AND/OR WHICH WAY THE ANALYSTS ARE ERRING?? THERE'S A PATTERN IN THE ABOVE REPORTS TODAY, AND IT'S inflationary! (careful, we don't want anyone else to notice just yet). TUESDAY Leading Indicators, for Jan, last was no change, expected is up 0.1% New Home Sales, for Jan, last was 777,000, and estimate for 820,000 THURSDAY Factory Orders, for Jan, last was down 2.5%, estimate for up 0.5% Initial Jobless Claims, for week to 2/28, last was 320,000 (which substantially beat the estimate) and estimate for 315,000 Money Supply (M2), for week to 2/23, last was up $7.2 billion, estimate for up $8.3 billion FRIDAY Nonfarm Payrolls (the biggie of the week), for Feb, last was up 358,000 and estimate for up 253,000. Because last month's report beat estimates by so much, even just matching estimates may be viewed as another proof that the Asian flu is not slowing mfr activity or economic growth in the USA. Unemployment Rate, for Feb, last was 4.7% and the same is expected Consumer Borrowing, for Jan, last was up $3.9 billion, estimate for up $4.3 billion (one of the reasons I wanted to hold on to EPIQ, and am still looking for a reentry point if priced right). Any statements or opinions are strictly my own and not that of my employer. My comments should not be interpreted as a recommendation of any kind. I am a licensed (inactive) broker and an active investor. All investors should do their own research prior to any investment, especially one learned about on the Internet. Hopefully my comments will better inform and educate all investors. tom w - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 2 Mar 1998 22:55:18 -0500 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: [CANSLIM] DISCLOSURE - PURW, EPIQ In continuing my personal philosophy of full disclosure on any stocks that I have suggested here, today I sold, as promised, my position in Pure World (PURW) at 9.625 for a 32% net gain over just three months (with all of the gain as well as covering my paper loss being accomplished in the past two weeks, since I mentioned it at 6 as it firmed up). I am not looking for a new entry point on this stock. While I was ready to reenter EPIQ, and it did sell off on the open as I expected, I did not buy it back. I wanted to pick it up in the low 14 dollar range, and just as I was ready to do so, one broker in my office gave me orders for 4000 shares, which took priority. Never had a chance after that. Will be watching tomorrow if we get any further selling on it. My preference is to buy it in the 12 dollar level, but may be willing to pay high 13 or low 14 depending on how it is trading. Any statements or opinions are strictly my own and not that of my employer. My comments should not be interpreted as a recommendation of any kind. I am a licensed (inactive) broker and an active investor. All investors should do their own research prior to any investment, especially one learned about on the Internet. Hopefully my comments will better inform and educate all investors. tom w - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 2 Mar 1998 23:03:46 -0500 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Re: ACRT and MTY - The Napeague Letter I concur with Craig's view of Bob Davis' reviews. While I haven't found too many that meet CANSLIM criteria, I have found him to be reasonable in his approach to reviewing stocks, and he has helped me fine tune some of my own perceptions. I have already dodged one "bullet" thanks to his insightful approach to stocks. Best of all, he's not out to "hype" stocks, rather just sharing what he has learned in the course of his own investing. He is by nature a fundamentalist, which is somewhat contrary to CS, but for those like myself with that bent, a good education. Any statements or opinions are strictly my own and not that of my employer. My comments should not be interpreted as a recommendation of any kind. I am a licensed (inactive) broker and an active investor. All investors should do their own research prior to any investment, especially one learned about on the Internet. Hopefully my comments will better inform and educate all investors. tom w - -----Original Message----- From: Craig Griffin To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Date: Monday, March 02, 1998 10:48 PM Subject: [CANSLIM] Re: ACRT and MTY - The Napeague Letter >Many of you may be familiar with the Napeague letter published by Bob Davis. >Mr. Davis is an investor who seems to enjoy researching small cap and >microcap stocks and publishing his opinion of those he selects. He uses a >great deal of fundamental analysis as well as a bit of astute technical >analysis. > >I have been following several of his recommended stocks and most are >somewhat mediocre performers so far (due to the long term horizon necessary >for value investing, perhaps). I do expect 1 or 2 or 3 of his picks to make >some decent progress this year. MTY in particular looks like a "Canslim >colt" to me, to coin a phrase, (under $12/share, but pretty solid Canslim >numbers - wobbles on his legs, but might grow up to be a racehorse - or a nag). > >Mr. Davis also has a review of ACRT's trading over the past year - based on >fundamental valuation and what appears to have been a "bear raid" on the >stock. I found the article VERY insightful. It provides some additional >reasons (beyond such things as a climax run) why a "Canslim stock" with good >news can decline precipitously and suddenly (for example: overvaluation, >short sellers, potential bad news feared from investors scanning the >horizon, etc.). Overvaluation/undervaluation is not directly a Canslim >factor of course, but many investors do invest based entirely on valuation >models. These investors are a big force that often provide solid Canslim >stocks with launch pads from their first stage bases as well as providing >selling on the way up to the ultimate highs. Mr. Davis' description of a >bear raid and some internet postings by a "Mr. Pink" are also eye openers. > >If you read the monthly table provided by Mr. Davis of "average trading days >sold short" and compare it to price action, one can extrapolate that the >rapid advance in ACRT's price from 07/18/97 to 07/31/97 was a short squeeze. >I base this conclusion on the precipitous drop in short figures the >following month (although Mr. Davis does not specifically refer to this >price action in his article). Many of you who were on the Canslim list in >July/August 97 may remember my wondering about that particular advance in >ACRT at the time. > >Lots of cool stuff here. Mr. Davis apparently does it all as a sort of >hobby, so his site and email newsletter are free. Take a look at the >following URL for the ACRT article ---> >http://www.napeague.com/acrt-discussion.html > >Best regards, >Craig > > >- > - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 2 Mar 1998 23:09:06 -0500 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Eonomic Calendar Week of March 2, 1998 Caught a typo here, original report was up 0.1%, revised today to up 0.5%. > >Construction Spending, for Jan, last was originally reported as up 0.%, and >revised to up 0.5%, expected was up 0.5% and we got up 0.7% (over the >upwardly revised nr). > - - ------------------------------ Date: Sun, 01 Mar 1998 20:50:58 -0500 From: Ravi Raman Subject: [CANSLIM] Callaway Golf? Hi, I am fairly new to investing and just joined this list a few hours ago. By joining I help to educate myself about how to make prudent investment decisions. I own stock in Callaway Golf[ELY]. The company is an industry leader and has been performing well for the last 2 weeks(though it is still slightly under my sept purchase price. They recently announced that they were going to miss their March earnings estimates due to the "Asian Flu". They said they could miss by as much as .25/share! My question is: should I hold the stock or sell it and buy it after a drop? The company seems very solid in the golf industry, will the stock drop due to panic by investors or is missing an earnings estimate really that big of a deal? The long term outlook seems fine for callaway golf. thank you for reading my seemingly rudimentary question. - -- ________________________________________________________ Ravi S. Raman-rsr143@psu.edu Penn State University-www.psu.edu ________________________________________________________ PSU Triathlon Club-Webmaster:www.clubs.psu.edu/triclub.psu.edu Business Student Council-Events Committee Co-Chair Finance Club-Communications Chair ________________________________________________________ - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 02 Mar 1998 22:51:31 -0600 From: Dave Cameron Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] THQI Jeffry White wrote (in response to Zoran): > As an example, let's track THQI. Initially, pull up a 3 month chart, or > shorter. If you'd been stalking this thing, like some who've posted > here before the breakout, those two indicators (along with the volume > spike) gave you a clear, low risk entry point on February 18 to buy > after the opening the following day. Now, let's watch the volume dry up > after this breakout and see where the stochastics and 3/7/10 EMA are at > the point where you would ordinarily be inclined to take an initial > position. I find that using volume alone, I was often early or wrong. > These indicators help avoid a bit of the guessing, but it still comes > down to using one's "neural network", as you say. > I do find this interesting, because I would never have bought THQI on Feb 18. Why? It closed at almost a new high - but it didn't quite match its previous high. Granted there was a lot of volume, but it could have been a double top. The breakout on 2/22(?) on higher volume would have brought it into my range if I wasn't already as invested as I care to be. But... I believe a CANSLIMer with money could have bought a couple days before the BIG news simply by using price/volume. They would have missed the first $1.50 of the move - but picked up the subsequent $5. I'd take that... However, I certainly see your point! Dave Cameron > Jeffry > > - - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 02 Mar 1998 23:57:33 -0500 From: "Frank V. Wolynski" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] DISCLOSURE - PURW, EPIQ At 22:55 3/2/98 -0500, Tom Worley wrote: ...snipped... > >While I was ready to reenter EPIQ, and it did sell off on the open as I >expected, I did not buy it back. I wanted to pick it up in the low 14 dollar >range, and just as I was ready to do so, one broker in my office gave me >orders for 4000 shares, which took priority. Never had a chance after that. >Will be watching tomorrow if we get any further selling on it. My preference >is to buy it in the 12 dollar level, but may be willing to pay high 13 or >low 14 depending on how it is trading. > Is this buying of EPIQ part of a different strategy or did I miss a chapter in HTMMIS about stocks falling 25% in 3 days? Although I have observed a rush in by buyers to finally get a chance to own the darling that they probably have deemed "already gone", I can't say I'm impressed with the success rate of being able to pick those exact pullback support levels. If support was near, I could echo and understand, but aren't there better and clearer opportunities? I'll assume for now the 12-14 dollar range is related approximately to the 50 day MOV. Pardon me if this has the tone of being critical, which I certainly do not mean to convey. I simply can't say I understand or agree, especially when considered in the context of CANSLIM. Best Regards and Respectfully, Frank Wolynski - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 2 Mar 1998 23:55:04 -0500 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Callaway Golf? Ravi, Welcome to the group, I hate to be the bearer of sad tidings, but Calloway is not a good CANSLIM candidate even without the latest news. First, RS is only 34, way under the 80 or better you should be looking for. Second, EPS is 68, also well under the 80 or better you should seek. In today's trading, the stock gapped down 3 9/16, a drop of over 11%, so that should tell you how seriously the mkt weighs a disappointment in earnings. Add to that a 25 cent "miss" means over a 10% drop in full year expectations, and ........ The one saving grace (if you want to call it that) is the trailing PE is now only 17, and forecasted earnings had already been reduced, so a lot of the expectation had already been stripped out of the price. Having been a broker, and participated when this company went public, I remember well all the hoopla over Big Bertha. Unfortunately, it's not enought to deliver a good product, a co must also deliver the earnings expected (or usually beat them). I doubt this stock is going anywhere except south for some time. I would suggest you spend $20 on Wm O'Neill's book "How To Make Money In Stocks", and consider the remaining value you have in ELY as "dead capital". You will have to decide what's best for you in either holding a further loss for another six months in hopes of some recovery or else taking the loss and using the money for a better opportunity. But the book should educate you better in making that decision, as well as picking more rewarding stocks in the future. Any statements or opinions are strictly my own and not that of my employer. My comments should not be interpreted as a recommendation of any kind. I am a licensed (inactive) broker and an active investor. All investors should do their own research prior to any investment, especially one learned about on the Internet. Hopefully my comments will better inform and educate all investors. tom w - -----Original Message----- From: Ravi Raman To: Canslim Investment Listserve Date: Monday, March 02, 1998 11:21 PM Subject: [CANSLIM] Callaway Golf? >Hi, > >I am fairly new to investing and just joined this list a few hours ago. > >By joining I help to educate myself about how to make prudent investment >decisions. > >I own stock in Callaway Golf[ELY]. The company is an industry leader and >has been performing well for the last 2 weeks(though it is still >slightly under my sept purchase price. They recently announced that they >were going to miss their March earnings estimates due to the "Asian >Flu". They said they could miss by as much as .25/share! > >My question is: should I hold the stock or sell it and buy it after a >drop? The company seems very solid in the golf industry, will the stock >drop due to panic by investors or is missing an earnings estimate really >that big of a deal? The long term outlook seems fine for callaway golf. > >thank you for reading my seemingly rudimentary question. > > >-- >________________________________________________________ >Ravi S. Raman-rsr143@psu.edu >Penn State University-www.psu.edu >________________________________________________________ >PSU Triathlon Club-Webmaster:www.clubs.psu.edu/triclub.psu.edu >Business Student Council-Events Committee Co-Chair >Finance Club-Communications Chair >________________________________________________________ > > > >- > - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 02 Mar 1998 22:55:37 -0600 From: Dave Cameron Subject: [CANSLIM] Big Cap Tech Stocks Maybe its just me, but I've been noticing that (aside from DELL) the Large Cap tech stocks are hitting a rough spot. I watch MSFT, SUNW, INTC, and some others. These 3 illustrate my point. We've had a couple fading days. I actually own INTC - with a stop at 83. If SUNW pierces 44 on the downside or INTC pierces 83 on the downside, that would be an indicator for me to sell a good chunk of my tech holdings - even the ones doing well. Why? These 3 stocks tend to be leaders. DELL is too... but I wouldn't touch it - its too extended for me. Just some musings as I check my indicators tonight. Dave Cameron - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 02 Mar 1998 23:03:44 -0600 From: Dave Cameron Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Callaway Golf? Ravi Raman wrote: > > Hi, > > I am fairly new to investing and just joined this list a few hours ago. > > By joining I help to educate myself about how to make prudent investment > decisions. > > I own stock in Callaway Golf[ELY]. The company is an industry leader and > has been performing well for the last 2 weeks(though it is still > slightly under my sept purchase price. They recently announced that they > were going to miss their March earnings estimates due to the "Asian > Flu". They said they could miss by as much as .25/share! I see the stock only dropped about 12% though... Normally the best strategy is to wait for a dead cat bounce and get out. > My question is: should I hold the stock or sell it and buy it after a > drop? The company seems very solid in the golf industry, will the stock > drop due to panic by investors or is missing an earnings estimate really > that big of a deal? The long term outlook seems fine for callaway golf. > The answer is that we don't really know. If this is a one-time shot, it'll be back to 33 by next quarter at this time. If not, it'll be at 20. I've had stocks go both ways. In fact, I've had this happen to me this year. Personally, I'd sell and move on - but that's because I know that either way it goes you're stuck for at least 3 months.. Dave Cameron Dave Cameron - - ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 3 Mar 1998 00:03:33 -0500 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] EPIQ (was DISCLOSURE - PURW, EPIQ) You are correct, Frank, that it is not totally nor pure "CANSLIM". However, with a CS rating of 99, 99, A, A it still has very good CS elements. I have previously noted that it tends to trade along its 10 dma, and when it gets too far ahead of itself (as it did last week) it will correct back to this level or below. I see some support, albeit very short term, in the 14 level, with more support in the 12 level. I remain convinced that we will see personal bankruptcy filings continuing to hit new highs in 1998, thus benefiting this company. If I can buy it at the right price, I have confidence I can make more money on it, either short or long term. Remember that this is a microcap with a very small float, thus its pricing action can be very volatile. Risk is much higher, but the rewards can be quick. Any statements or opinions are strictly my own and not that of my employer. My comments should not be interpreted as a recommendation of any kind. I am a licensed (inactive) broker and an active investor. All investors should do their own research prior to any investment, especially one learned about on the Internet. Hopefully my comments will better inform and educate all investors. tom w - -----Original Message----- From: Frank V. Wolynski To: canslim@lists.xmission.com ; CANSLIM Date: Monday, March 02, 1998 11:54 PM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] DISCLOSURE - PURW, EPIQ >At 22:55 3/2/98 -0500, Tom Worley wrote: >...snipped... >> >>While I was ready to reenter EPIQ, and it did sell off on the open as I >>expected, I did not buy it back. I wanted to pick it up in the low 14 dollar >>range, and just as I was ready to do so, one broker in my office gave me >>orders for 4000 shares, which took priority. Never had a chance after that. >>Will be watching tomorrow if we get any further selling on it. My preference >>is to buy it in the 12 dollar level, but may be willing to pay high 13 or >>low 14 depending on how it is trading. >> > >Is this buying of EPIQ part of a different strategy or did I miss a chapter >in HTMMIS about stocks falling 25% in 3 days? Although I have observed a >rush in by buyers to finally get a chance to own the darling that they >probably have deemed "already gone", I can't say I'm impressed with the >success rate of being able to pick those exact pullback support levels. If >support was near, I could echo and understand, but aren't there better and >clearer opportunities? > >I'll assume for now the 12-14 dollar range is related approximately to the >50 day MOV. > >Pardon me if this has the tone of being critical, which I certainly do not >mean to convey. I simply can't say I understand or agree, especially when >considered in the context of CANSLIM. > >Best Regards and Respectfully, > >Frank Wolynski > > >- > - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 02 Mar 1998 21:15:37 -0600 From: Luke Lang Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Callaway Golf? Ravi, Over the last two years, ELY really hasn't done very much. Besides the earning warning, Callaway Golf also lost its attempt to stop Spalding from selling golf balls targetted for Callaway driver. I heard that Callaway will introduce its own line of golf balls later in the year. This may bring more revenue. I don't know why you got into ELY and therefore can't say whether you should stay in it. From a purely technical point of view, I would be very concerned if it falls below 26.5. I would probably dump it if it closes below 25. Good luck. Luke Lang Ravi Raman wrote: > > Hi, > > I am fairly new to investing and just joined this list a few hours ago. > > By joining I help to educate myself about how to make prudent investment > decisions. > > I own stock in Callaway Golf[ELY]. The company is an industry leader and > has been performing well for the last 2 weeks(though it is still > slightly under my sept purchase price. They recently announced that they > were going to miss their March earnings estimates due to the "Asian > Flu". They said they could miss by as much as .25/share! > > My question is: should I hold the stock or sell it and buy it after a > drop? The company seems very solid in the golf industry, will the stock > drop due to panic by investors or is missing an earnings estimate really > that big of a deal? The long term outlook seems fine for callaway golf. > > thank you for reading my seemingly rudimentary question. > > -- > ________________________________________________________ > Ravi S. Raman-rsr143@psu.edu > Penn State University-www.psu.edu > ________________________________________________________ > PSU Triathlon Club-Webmaster:www.clubs.psu.edu/triclub.psu.edu > Business Student Council-Events Committee Co-Chair > Finance Club-Communications Chair > ________________________________________________________ > > - - - ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 3 Mar 1998 00:16:16 -0500 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: [CANSLIM] The markets OK, I give up, I'm going to sleep. Spent over six hours on the net tonight, and I'm pretty froggy by now. Been forced back into the forefront of a 225 person shareholder group trying to recover from a scam, and its exhausting. Asia looks rather ugly, as does the futures, can't say I'm sorry I sold all my extended stocks at this point. Will see what tomorrow brings, but right now it looks down. Any statements or opinions are strictly my own and not that of my employer. My comments should not be interpreted as a recommendation of any kind. I am a licensed (inactive) broker and an active investor. All investors should do their own research prior to any investment, especially one learned about on the Internet. Hopefully my comments will better inform and educate all investors. tom w - - ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 03 Mar 1998 00:16:03 -0500 From: Ravi Raman Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Callaway Golf? Thank you so much. I will check the book out at a local library. By the way, what does RS mean? Tom Worley wrote: > Ravi, > Welcome to the group, I hate to be the bearer of sad tidings, but Calloway > is not a good CANSLIM candidate even without the latest news. First, RS is > only 34, way under the 80 or better you should be looking for. Second, EPS > is 68, also well under the 80 or better you should seek. In today's trading, > the stock gapped down 3 9/16, a drop of over 11%, so that should tell you > how seriously the mkt weighs a disappointment in earnings. Add to that a 25 > cent "miss" means over a 10% drop in full year expectations, and ........ > > The one saving grace (if you want to call it that) is the trailing PE is now > only 17, and forecasted earnings had already been reduced, so a lot of the > expectation had already been stripped out of the price. Having been a > broker, and participated when this company went public, I remember well all > the hoopla over Big Bertha. Unfortunately, it's not enought to deliver a > good product, a co must also deliver the earnings expected (or usually beat > them). > > I doubt this stock is going anywhere except south for some time. I would > suggest you spend $20 on Wm O'Neill's book "How To Make Money In Stocks", > and consider the remaining value you have in ELY as "dead capital". You will > have to decide what's best for you in either holding a further loss for > another six months in hopes of some recovery or else taking the loss and > using the money for a better opportunity. But the book should educate you > better in making that decision, as well as picking more rewarding stocks in > the future. > > Any statements or opinions are strictly my own and not that of my employer. > My comments should not be interpreted as a recommendation of any kind. I am > a licensed (inactive) broker and an active investor. All investors should do > their own research prior to any investment, especially one learned about on > the Internet. Hopefully my comments will better inform and educate all > investors. > tom w > -----Original Message----- > From: Ravi Raman > To: Canslim Investment Listserve > Date: Monday, March 02, 1998 11:21 PM > Subject: [CANSLIM] Callaway Golf? > > >Hi, > > > >I am fairly new to investing and just joined this list a few hours ago. > > > >By joining I help to educate myself about how to make prudent investment > >decisions. > > > >I own stock in Callaway Golf[ELY]. The company is an industry leader and > >has been performing well for the last 2 weeks(though it is still > >slightly under my sept purchase price. They recently announced that they > >were going to miss their March earnings estimates due to the "Asian > >Flu". They said they could miss by as much as .25/share! > > > >My question is: should I hold the stock or sell it and buy it after a > >drop? The company seems very solid in the golf industry, will the stock > >drop due to panic by investors or is missing an earnings estimate really > >that big of a deal? The long term outlook seems fine for callaway golf. > > > >thank you for reading my seemingly rudimentary question. > > > > > >-- > >________________________________________________________ > >Ravi S. Raman-rsr143@psu.edu > >Penn State University-www.psu.edu > >________________________________________________________ > >PSU Triathlon Club-Webmaster:www.clubs.psu.edu/triclub.psu.edu > >Business Student Council-Events Committee Co-Chair > >Finance Club-Communications Chair > >________________________________________________________ > > > > > > > >- > > > > - - -- ________________________________________________________ Ravi S. Raman-rsr143@psu.edu Penn State University-www.psu.edu ________________________________________________________ PSU Triathlon Club-Webmaster:www.clubs.psu.edu/triclub.psu.edu Business Student Council-Events Committe Co-Chair Finance Club-Communications Chair ________________________________________________________ - - ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 03 Mar 1998 00:24:47 -0500 From: "Frank V. Wolynski" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Big Cap Tech Stocks At 22:55 3/2/98 -0600, Dave Cameron wrote: >Maybe its just me, but I've been noticing that (aside from DELL) >the Large Cap tech stocks are hitting a rough spot. I watch >MSFT, SUNW, INTC, and some others. These 3 illustrate my point. >We've had a couple fading days. I actually own INTC - with a >stop at 83. If SUNW pierces 44 on the downside or INTC pierces >83 on the downside, that would be an indicator for me to sell >a good chunk of my tech holdings - even the ones doing well. >Why? These 3 stocks tend to be leaders. DELL is too... but I >wouldn't touch it - its too extended for me. > >Just some musings as I check my indicators tonight. > >Dave Cameron > The Indexes I track show all the Technology groups running into the old high regions. I've been curious if "da Bulls" could penetrate the old highs with a straight through single pass at it or... would they have to take a breather and consolidation some of the gains and build support at this level. If I had to guess I would say the current prices are too extended above their 50 day mov to allow much of an advance without testing and holding these prices. The techs were highlighted on CNBC last week with a "if you had bought these stocks 3 months ago...." yada, yada. Is that the death of them? Certainly not, its the nineties and technology is just getting started. They don't fit in my system. None on my radar. I can see why you trade them though. Hope you do well. This weeks Barrons lists the AAII ( Amer Assoc of Individual Investors ) Bullish consensus @ 53% Bearish consensus @ 14% I would expect on a contrarian basis that if the market moves against the majority, then it moves in favor of the few. In short, my index tracking says at best the techs want to build support. At worse, retest the 50 day mov. Frank Wolynski ( I am often wrong, please plan accordingly.) - - ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 03 Mar 1998 00:30:51 -0500 From: "Frank V. Wolynski" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] EPIQ (was DISCLOSURE - PURW, EPIQ) At 00:03 3/3/98 -0500, Tom Worley wrote: >You are correct, Frank, that it is not totally nor pure "CANSLIM". However, >with a CS rating of 99, 99, A, A it still has very good CS elements. I have >previously noted that it tends to trade along its 10 dma, and when it gets >too far ahead of itself (as it did last week) it will correct back to this >level or below. I see some support, albeit very short term, in the 14 level, >with more support in the 12 level. I remain convinced that we will see >personal bankruptcy filings continuing to hit new highs in 1998, thus >benefiting this company. If I can buy it at the right price, I have >confidence I can make more money on it, either short or long term. > >Remember that this is a microcap with a very small float, thus its pricing >action can be very volatile. Risk is much higher, but the rewards can be >quick. > Ahhh, I understand, a friend pointed me in the direction of shorter mov's, much akin to Connie's use of the 3|5|9, I've read the Stocks & Commodities article on Multiple Moving Averages, but I seem to find just as many that go contrary. I'm more comfortable with the intermediate technical indicators. I guess it has to do with experience also, which admittedly I'm short of. Thanks, Frank Wolynski - - ------------------------------ End of canslim-digest V2 #133 ***************************** To unsubscribe to canslim-digest, send an email to "majordomo@xmission.com" with "unsubscribe canslim-digest" in the body of the message. For information on digests or retrieving files and old messages send "help" to the same address. Do not use quotes in your message.