From: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com (canslim-digest) To: canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Subject: canslim-digest V2 #1330 Reply-To: canslim Sender: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Errors-To: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Precedence: bulk Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable X-No-Archive: yes canslim-digest Tuesday, May 1 2001 Volume 02 : Number 1330 In this issue: Re: [CANSLIM] potential growth RE: VSEA (was Re: [CANSLIM] PIR Nosedive) RE: [CANSLIM] DGO List Re: [CANSLIM] WLSN broke out on a large volume increase today. [CANSLIM] To Earl: severe weakness took me out too! [CANSLIM] DFXI Pullback [CANSLIM] Re: To Earl: severe weakness took me out too!] Re: [CANSLIM] Re: To Earl: severe weakness took me out too!] Re: [CANSLIM] PIR Nosedive RE: [CANSLIM] PIR Nosedive ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Date: Mon, 30 Apr 2001 23:09:47 -0700 (PDT) From: Kent Norman Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] potential growth Yes Ann, If I understand correctly. It is possible to save a spreadsheet as CSV (file, save as). That is how I generated the information. I chose to send it as a CSV (plain text in the body of the message because I saw people having problems with previous spreadsheets posted to this group. As far as getting online info into a spreadsheet. Yes it can be done. Depending on how the web page is setup, some can be copied and pasted to a plain text file (notepad) and then imported to spreadsheet. Some sites have an option to download raw data. Then many sites have the information in HTML form so that a simple copy and paste looks really messed up. There are shareware utilities to de-html a file. There may still be a lot of effort required. If you wish to continue this discussion, please send directly to my email address so we don't clutter the CANSLIM list with off topic chat. Regards Kent Norman - --- Ann Hollingworth wrote: > Thanks for this, Kent. > Can you also use this backwards? I mean, can you > take the excel document and > translate it to CSV to send online. > Is there any other way I can use this? Can I > transcribe info from online > sources this way? > Thanks. > Ann > > > ----- Original Message ----- > From: "Kent Norman" > To: "CANSLIM" > Sent: Monday, April 30, 2001 5:44 AM > Subject: [CANSLIM] potential growth > > > > Here is a list of mostly CS stocks. It shows how > close > > they are to 1.5x 50dma and 2x 200dma. Many people > > start watching for a chance to take profits when > the > > price approaches these points. > > > > This is comma separated value (CSV). To get it > into > > your spreadsheet: > > 1. Highlight the data > > 2. copy > > 3. Open notepad (or any plain text editor) > > 4. paste > > 5. save > > 6. open spreadsheet > > 7. file, open, pick the filename you saved it as > > 8. select delimited, CSV > > > > Regards > > Kent Norman > > > > symbol,current price,50MA,200MA, 1.5x50MA , > 2x200MA ,% > > above 50dma,% above 200dma, 1.5x POTENTIAL , 2x > > POTENTIAL > > aci,31.48,28.04,15.19, $ 42.06 , $ 30.38 > > ,11%,52%,34%,-3% > > ally,22.38,16.32,8.54, $ 24.48 , $ 17.08 > > ,27%,62%,9%,-24% > > coo,45.5,42.95,37.02, $ 64.43 , $ 74.04 > > ,6%,19%,42%,63% > > efds,20.5,18.11,11.59, $ 27.17 , $ 23.18 > > ,12%,43%,33%,13% > > escm,26.94,22.55,17.50, $ 33.83 , $ 35.00 > > ,16%,35%,26%,30% > > flya,11.11,8.97,6.91, $ 13.46 , $ 13.82 > > ,19%,38%,21%,24% > > gpi,18.2,13.19,10.76, $ 19.79 , $ 21.52 > > ,28%,41%,9%,18% > > hoc,36.02,25.24,16.75, $ 37.86 , $ 33.50 > > ,30%,53%,5%,-7% > > hov,17.9,13.25,9.19, $ 19.88 , $ 18.38 > > ,26%,49%,11%,3% > > IGT,57,51.90,42.90, $ 77.85 , $ 85.80 > > ,9%,25%,37%,51% > > igt,56.91,52.73,41.66, $ 79.10 , $ 83.32 > > ,7%,27%,39%,46% > > kmx,10.41,6.76,4.92, $ 10.14 , $ 9.84 > > ,35%,53%,-3%,-5% > > modt,11.46,9.19,8.96, $ 13.79 , $ 17.92 > > ,20%,22%,20%,56% > > movi,7.43,6.24,4.37, $ 9.36 , $ 8.74 > > ,16%,41%,26%,18% > > nvr,196,160.00,108.00, $ 240.00 , $ 216.00 > > ,18%,45%,22%,10% > > olog,26.8,24.34,19.40, $ 36.51 , $ 38.80 > > ,9%,28%,36%,45% > > optn,13,8.76,7.00, $ 13.14 , $ 14.00 > > ,33%,46%,1%,8% > > pbt,6.5,6.52,5.87, $ 9.78 , $ 11.74 > > ,0%,10%,50%,81% > > phm,49.5,38.00,34.06, $ 57.00 , $ 68.12 > > ,23%,31%,15%,38% > > rbnc,13.2,12.34,9.93, $ 18.51 , $ 19.86 > > ,7%,25%,40%,50% > > rcgi,28.78,26.49,23.51, $ 39.74 , $ 47.02 > > ,8%,18%,38%,63% > > rgfc,19.17,16.62,12.26, $ 24.93 , $ 24.52 > > ,13%,36%,30%,28% > > ryan,12.19,10.70,9.21, $ 16.05 , $ 18.42 > > ,12%,24%,32%,51% > > sfc,11.74,8.07,, $ 12.11 , ,31%,100%,3%,n/a > > stnv,13.64,10.03,8.01, $ 15.05 , $ 16.02 > > ,26%,41%,10%,17% > > strc,26.2,18.92,14.35, $ 28.38 , $ 28.70 > > ,28%,45%,8%,10% > > uslb,14,8.60,5.17, $ 12.90 , $ 10.34 > > ,39%,63%,-8%,-26% > > wgov,67.15,54.33,44.33, $ 81.50 , $ 88.66 > > ,19%,34%,21%,32% > > whes,29.5,22.97,, $ 34.46 , ,22%,100%,17%,n/a > > > > > > __________________________________________________ > > Do You Yahoo!? > > Yahoo! Auctions - buy the things you want at great > prices > > http://auctions.yahoo.com/ > > > > - > > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email > "majordomo@xmission.com" > > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your > email. > > > - > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email > "majordomo@xmission.com" > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. __________________________________________________ Do You Yahoo!? Yahoo! Auctions - buy the things you want at great prices http://auctions.yahoo.com/ - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 1 May 2001 09:37:57 -0400 From: "Dave Rubin" Subject: RE: VSEA (was Re: [CANSLIM] PIR Nosedive) VSEA is not CANSLIM but its slump is an industry problem, not a VSEA problem. Compared to its peers in the chipmaking industry VSEA is undervalued. They have a virtual monopoly on their niche (ion implantation systems). When the industry recovers you will probably see VSEA outperform the group. > -----Original Message----- > From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com > [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of Tom Worley > Sent: Tuesday, May 01, 2001 12:05 AM > To: canslim@lists.xmission.com > Subject: VSEA (was Re: [CANSLIM] PIR Nosedive) > > > He ignores PEs on the trailing end, because that's history. He > pays close attention to forecasted PEs, because that's the > future, and reflects expectations. > > VSEA has a forecasted DECLINE in earnings of 19% this year (ends > Sep) and a further decline of 28% for next fiscal year. How is > that expected to enhance expectations of shareholders, in an era > of weak economics, but optimism that we are on the road to > recovery? > > There are huge numbers of stocks out there where the forecast is > still positive, even if not at the levels of just a year ago. > Declining forecasted earnings = declining expectations = > declining PE ratios (both trailing and forecasted). Even if > somehow they manage to beat forecasts and estimates, there is > still a good chance that declining expectations will cause the > stock to trade at a lower multiple, and thus a lower price unless > they beat forecasts and estimates by a huge margin. > > This stock has shown 7 consecutive sequential quarters of > earnings increases, and six of the past seven qtrs also had sales > increases sequentially. For the latest qtr, they show 13% > decline in earnings year to year, and over a 50% decline in > earnings sequentially. And that's on an 11% increase in revenues. > I call that busting the pattern, it certainly doesn't get me > hyped up to own this stock. > > There's a reason the trailing PE is only 13. > > Tom Worley > stkguru@netside.net > > > ----- Original Message ----- > From: DougC > To: > Sent: Monday, April 30, 2001 11:19 PM > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] PIR Nosedive > > > I know WON does say that a low PE is low for a reason. > But he also ignores high PE's. Is that inconsistent? > > VSEA had a PE of 8 in early December and stock price > in the 20 to 25 range. Now, 5 months later, it's stock price > is 45 and PE still low at 13. > > Makes me wonder if PE's should be ignored on the low end > also. > > At 10:59 PM 4/30/01 -0400, you wrote: > >Too low of a PE is also a good warning flag, after all, the > >market (and all those other individual and institutional > >investors out there) may just know what they are doing, at the > >least they reflect "market sentiment". And a low trailing PE > >(even before today it was only 15) strongly suggests low > >expectations. The earnings forecast for only 10% growth only > >heightens that. That was probably the best single clue. > > > >Tom Worley > >stkguru@netside.net > > > > > >----- Original Message ----- > >From: DougC > >To: > >Sent: Monday, April 30, 2001 10:08 PM > >Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] PIR Nosedive > > > > > > Even though > >PIR does not meet what most of us use as minimun criteria for > >canslim, there > >was nothing a person could have seen in the fundamentals on 4/10 > >that would > >have hinted at the break that occured today. PIR is a strong > >stock. Or was. As > >of today it has an EPS of 91, long term growth rate of 19, GRS > A, > >SMR A, > >earnings stability 8 (less than 25 is very good), cash flow > 1.20, > >ROE 20%. > >Even though its last qtr was only12% over same quarter previous > >year that's > >still not a bad number. Sequentially it's earnings growth were > >very good. PIR > >is making money and has little debt. It's PE is already down to > >11. Book value > >is 2.41. And as far as price volume action is concerned, there > >was only one > >distribution day after 04/10. that was on 04/24 when PIR closed > >down on greater > >volume than previous day. And that volume, 553K, was less than > >ADV of 716K. > >As far as stops are concerned...I would have gotten killed > >because I only use > >mental stops. but I can assure you I would be out today, or > early > >tomorrow, > >and I > >would'nt like back. Dems the breaks. > > > >As a comparison look at IGT. Far superior fundamentals but > really > >scary price > >volume action. On 04/18 broke to new high on 2x vol. (1.5M vs. > >adv of 755K.) > >Next day gave back all of previous gains on 2x vol. (1.7M - dist > >day) > >and closed on it's low. Seven days later, today, there's another > >dist day > >on vol > >greater than ADV. Not the way a handle should look. should be > >decreasing > >vol when handle forms. Yes I'm in IGT and yes I'm scared. > >Probably will get out > >tomorrow, without really incuring a loss yet, and just wait and > >see if the > >price/vol > >action improves...and just admit that I got in too early in the > >first place. > > > >In addition to your question about what to look for in > >price/volume action to > >forsee a break in stock price I also think PIR is a good example > >to counter > >WON's assertion that you only need to focus on 4 or 5 stocks. > >Below I list > >a chart > >from a book I read that had a section on reducing risk in > >stocks/options by > >increasing number of issues held. > > > ># of issues % Total Risk %Total Risk Reduced %Co. > >Related Risk > >Reduced > > 1 100 0 > >0 > > 2 80 20 > >29 > > 3 75 25 > >36 > > 4 70 30 > >43 > > 5 65 35 > >50 > > 10 50 50 > >71 > > 20 45 55 > >79 > > 40 40 60 > >86 > > 100 35 65 > >93 > > 2000 30 70 > >100 > > > >Based on this chart I use 10 as number of issues I want to hold. > > > > > > >PIR revised estimates today and took a dump. Fortunately I > don't > >own it, but > > >am looking for a lesson. It broke out on 4/10 on double > average > >volume. Just > > >buying in the first place would violate some rules: price < > $16, > >+12% EPS > > >last quarter. Assuming you bought on the breakout, what do you > >see in the > > >action following this that might have led you to sell? Add to > my > >list below: > > > > > >1. First day after breakout price fell below pivot on heavy > >volume. Closed > > >at its low. > > > > > >- > >-To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" > >-In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > >-"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. > > > > > > > >- > >-To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" > >-In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > >-"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. > > > - > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. > > > > > - > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. > - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 1 May 2001 09:47:57 -0400 From: "Rick Parsons" Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] DGO List This is a multi-part message in MIME format. - ------=_NextPart_000_000F_01C0D223.CD2C6160 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable You get this question all the time, Tom. Why don't you put this = explanation at the top of each list? Rick -----Original Message----- From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com = [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of Tom Worley Sent: Saturday, April 28, 2001 4:44 PM To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] DGO List "B" for Base, the number following is the nr of weeks it has been = basing, in my opinion. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net ----- Original Message -----=20 From: dannygottlieb=20 To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20 Sent: Saturday, April 28, 2001 5:19 PM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] DGO List I guess I am getting slow in my old age(47). Tom, what does the code = letter B signify in your list? Danny ----- Original Message -----=20 From: Tom Worley=20 To: CANSLIM=20 Sent: Saturday, April 28, 2001 1:58 PM Subject: [CANSLIM] DGO List Full list totaled 245, up strongly from last week's 195. Before = that it was 171 and 159. Please remember, this list is my thoughts from just looking at a = six month chart. It is intended as ideas for a watch list. Any comments = like "at pivot" or "still buyable" does not in any way mean I am = suggesting any member should buy the stock. USLB - B1+ RYL - possible handle forming on the cup CPN - B2 IGT - cup and handle, volume declining - my analysis posted = earlier TWRI - broke out Friday on less than ADV from a B4, within 4% of = base, low ADV apparently because most of the issue is locked up (neither = owned by management or funds, they both have 8%) CHS - high handle, sharp decline in volume ESI - short base on base? CPRT - B2 GCO - almost at pivot MKT - B2+ BWS - B7, vol and price spike on Friday after 3 weeks of below avg = volume EME - B2 MINI - B3 DME - B5 UVV - B5 PIR - volatile B3 ACAI - B3+ OFIX - B2 FDO - B5 below the high ISCA - B3- RSG - wedging FDC - B1+ OMG - 3 days of volume, b/o Thu, crossed the pivot Fri, weak = earnings forecast SASOY - B7, low priced SBMC - B3, tight, low vol FFCH - b/o Fri from B4, below pivot MTB - B4 DTE - B3 MATW - b/o Thu from B6, still buyable BOKF - B5 TGT - b/o Fri on lite vol, at the pivot EEI - B2, low price, low vol, already on my watch list BKNG - B7 EDS - B1+ handle on a smooth cup BANR - B3+ Happy Hunting, Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net - ------=_NextPart_000_000F_01C0D223.CD2C6160 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
You get this question all the time, Tom.  Why = don't you put=20 this explanation at the top of each list?
 
Rick
-----Original Message-----
From:=20 owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com=20 [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of Tom=20 Worley
Sent: Saturday, April 28, 2001 4:44 PM
To:=20 canslim@lists.xmission.com
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] DGO=20 List

"B" for Base, the number following is the nr of = weeks it has=20 been basing, in my opinion.
 
Tom Worley
stkguru@netside.net
 
 
----- Original Message -----
From:=20 dannygottlieb
Sent: Saturday, April 28, = 2001 5:19=20 PM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] DGO = List

I guess I am getting slow in my old = age(47).=20 Tom, what does the code letter B signify in your = list?
 Danny
----- Original Message ----- =
From:=20 Tom=20 Worley
To: CANSLIM
Sent: Saturday, April 28, = 2001 1:58=20 PM
Subject: [CANSLIM] DGO = List

Full list totaled 245, up strongly from last = week's 195.=20 Before that it was 171 and 159.
 
Please remember, this list is my thoughts from = just=20 looking at a six month chart. It is intended as ideas for a watch = list.=20 Any comments like "at pivot" or "still buyable" does not in any = way mean I=20 am suggesting any member should buy the stock.
 
USLB - B1+
RYL - possible handle forming on the = cup
CPN - B2
IGT - cup and handle, volume declining - = my=20 analysis posted earlier
TWRI - broke out Friday on less than ADV from = a B4,=20 within 4% of base, low ADV apparently because most of the issue is = locked=20 up (neither owned by management or funds, they both have = 8%)
CHS - high handle, sharp decline in = volume
ESI - short base on base?
CPRT - B2
GCO - almost at pivot
MKT - B2+
BWS - B7, vol and price spike on Friday after = 3 weeks of=20 below avg volume
EME - B2
MINI - B3
DME - B5
UVV - B5
PIR - volatile B3
ACAI - B3+
OFIX - B2
FDO - B5 below the high
ISCA - B3-
RSG - wedging
FDC - B1+
OMG - 3 days of volume, b/o Thu, crossed the = pivot Fri,=20 weak earnings forecast
SASOY - B7, low priced
SBMC - B3, tight, low vol
FFCH - b/o Fri from B4, below = pivot
MTB - B4
DTE - B3
MATW - b/o Thu from B6, still = buyable
BOKF - B5
TGT - b/o Fri on lite vol, at the = pivot
EEI - B2, low price, low vol, already on my = watch=20 list
BKNG - B7
EDS - B1+ handle on a smooth cup
BANR - B3+
 
Happy Hunting,
 
Tom Worley
stkguru@netside.net
 
 
- ------=_NextPart_000_000F_01C0D223.CD2C6160-- - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 1 May 2001 10:22:45 -0400 From: "jsteff" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] WLSN broke out on a large volume increase today. Tom I was perusing your list and come upon SASOY. I was doing some research and saw on a website (I don't remember which one) that the recent(past 12 mths) cash flow/share was extremely low compared to past few years. Have you seen this? Also will you provide a bit of information pertaining to your interpretation on this company? Thanks Steff - ----- Original Message ----- From: "Tom Worley" To: Sent: Monday, April 30, 2001 11:13 PM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] WLSN broke out on a large volume increase today. > Unfortunately, Ian, only speculation on how the 1st qtr may turn > out, or more importantly how investors, esp institutionals, will > react to it. Looks like this company loses money for three qtrs, > then makes it all in the 4th qtr. I can recall my wife and I > exchanging leather jackets during the post-Christmas sales, so > understand that. > > So maybe the 1st qtr they will lose less than the 5 cents they > lost last year. But the low trailing PE again, like PIR, suggests > that expectations are not very high. And with two of the three > months of Q2 sales already known, still expectation is not > driving the price higher (if you don't count today). With their > "big" quarter now out of the way, where's the excitement to drive > expectations for another nine months. That's one of the problems > with cyclical stocks heavily focused on one or two qtrs. > > Chart wise, I just see the current base from which it broke > today. The longer term pattern, esp in light of all the other > background noise ("M", economics, etc) only seem to confuse the > picture. If this is the handle to a cup, then at seven weeks, it > is suspiciously long. > > Tom Worley > stkguru@netside.net > > > ----- Original Message ----- > From: Ian > To: > Sent: Monday, April 30, 2001 5:00 PM > Subject: [CANSLIM] WLSN broke out on a large volume increase > today. > > > I see a nice cup from late August to early March, followed by a > shallow > handle. The pivot point was $20 1/8, and there was a nice window > early this > morning to get in there. As an added bonus, it also moved past > its 52-week > high of $21 1/2 today. Volume was impressive. > > They have announced sales results for Feb and Mar (up 25% and > 34%), so > perhaps they will have a strong Q and not lose money. WLSN is in > an > ultra-lumpy business, so sequential numbers mean nothing, but the > year-over-year #'s look good - and the P/E is less than 10. > > We'll see. > > Cheers, > > Ian > > > - > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. > > > > - > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: 1 May 2001 07:49:12 -0700 From: "Tim Fisher" Subject: [CANSLIM] To Earl: severe weakness took me out too! Out of SGR and SRCL, that is. Anyway, looks like CANSLIM is out of favor in an otherwise relatively strong rally, my accounts actually lost money yesterday and are in the hole so far today. I tightened my stops on my winners to a trailing 10% after getting stopped out of those two. Tim Fisher Ore-ROCK-On Rockhounding Web Site Pacific Fishery Biologists Information mailto:tim@OreRockOn.com WWW http://OreRockOn.com - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 1 May 2001 11:41:10 -0400 From: "Dave Rubin" Subject: [CANSLIM] DFXI Pullback DFXI is back to within 5% of its pivot on lower volume. Is this a failed BO in the making or an opportunity to get in? - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: 1 May 2001 11:04:34 CDT From: Fanus Subject: [CANSLIM] Re: To Earl: severe weakness took me out too!] Interesting observation Tim about CANSLIM being out of favor in the rally= =2E I noticed the same thing on my watch list. They seem to be going down duri= ng the rally. = Does anyone else notice the same thing? Any speculation on why that woul= d be? Could it it be that people tend to forget about fundamentals during the = rally and is going back to more speculative stocks? - - Fanus "Tim Fisher" wrote: Out of SGR and SRCL, that is. Anyway, looks like CANSLIM is out of favor = in = an otherwise relatively strong rally, my accounts actually lost money = yesterday and are in the hole so far today. I tightened my stops on my = winners to a trailing 10% after getting stopped out of those two. Tim Fisher Ore-ROCK-On Rockhounding Web Site Pacific Fishery Biologists Information mailto:tim@OreRockOn.com WWW http://OreRockOn.com - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ____________________________________________________________________ Get free email and a permanent address at http://www.netaddress.com/?N=3D= 1 - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 1 May 2001 14:31:59 EDT From: Spencer48@aol.com Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Re: To Earl: severe weakness took me out too!] Et Al. I haven't made a systematic study, but has anyone else noticed (particularly Earl, since I believe he follows the Tues. Institutional data in IBD) that many of the strongly based stocks (eg. Energy) have "D" or at the most "C" ratings in Tuesday's Institutional Data in IBD. If you have noticed, and this is accurate, what do you, Earl, believe it portends? To me, it looks as if the institutions believe this is a bear rally, and so they are selling into strength. I could be more certain if IBD told us when the Tues. IBD Institutional Data is gathered. I believe it is a few months out of date, so I'm not really certain how to handle that information. To me, the Tues. Inst. data is more misleading for this reason than it is helpful. This is because the institutions could now be buying, and the IBD user would believe they are selling. The way I figure is: I look at Tuesday's data and meld it with the A/D rating, and then hope that this gives me some semblance of an accurate conclusion. jans - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 1 May 2001 16:40:00 -0400 From: asosis@ca.ibm.com Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] PIR Nosedive - --0__=85256A3F0070BD9D8f9e8a93df938690918c85256A3F0070BD9D Content-type: text/plain; charset=us-ascii 2. The day of B/O close < open - formed what is known as doji. May indicate that the b/o does not have strength. Volume is high but where is the price advance? 3. THe next day opened higher, tried to rally but closed on the low (and below pivot). Add volume above ave to this and this indicates weakness. (On the bright side, though, the volume was lower than the day before.) 4.4/16 - 4/18 advance is on low volume. The next two days the price reversed without taking out the previous high... The whole pattern IMHO indicated hesitation. "Hugh Fader" @lists.xmission.com on 04/30/2001 08:50:37 PM Please respond to canslim@lists.xmission.com Sent by: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com To: "CANSLIM List \(E-mail\)" cc: Subject: [CANSLIM] PIR Nosedive PIR revised estimates today and took a dump. Fortunately I don't own it, but am looking for a lesson. It broke out on 4/10 on double average volume. Just buying in the first place would violate some rules: price < $16, +12% EPS last quarter. Assuming you bought on the breakout, what do you see in the action following this that might have led you to sell? Add to my list below: 1. First day after breakout price fell below pivot on heavy volume. Closed at its low. 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Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 1 May 2001 20:17:17 -0400 From: "Hugh Fader" Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] PIR Nosedive Tom, I see a cup going from 11/00 to 3/01, then a handle from 3/01 to 4/01. It is admittedly wide and loose. Am I missing something that invalidates this? - - Hugh - -----Original Message----- From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of Tom Worley Sent: Monday, April 30, 2001 10:48 PM To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] PIR Nosedive Hi Hugh, Maybe it's just definitions differences, but I don't see a b/o on 4/10, by then it was already extended. The only b/o I see recently is on 4/5, when at least it had a short two week base to operate off of, and volume was better than 1.5 ADV. By 4/10, not only was there no base, but it was nearly 10% over that short base. The only thing that marks 4/10 as a "b/o" is that it hit a new high (thereby crossing the pivot, in at least one sense). But it takes more than simply making a new high to be a b/o, you need some kind of basing formation, and by 4/10 that was no longer evident. Had I been trying to buy this one, and failed to catch it around 13, I would have already saw it leave the train station by 4/10 and been looking for the next ride. This one is tricky, in that with home sales (both new and used) so strong, and rates falling, it stands to reason that retail companies selling home furnishings, and home improvement products, stand to see robust sales in the future. As to additional "rules" that would have warned you to stay away, start with the earnings forecast for this year of only 10% growth. That right there stops it being CANSLIM. Me personally, I don't like companies with weird fiscal years (this one ended Feb). If you can't end it on 12/31, at least end it on a normal calendar quarter so you're in the cycle with everyone else. Heck, even Japan manages to have all their companies close their year March 31 together. Bottom line for me is that in this highly volatile environment, where virtually every company big and small has warned they won't meet forecasts, the key is not so much what they did last (1st) qtr as investors only expect bad news there. The key is what they say about the future. I have seen numerous companies report above expectations, esp where the expectations were recently lowered, but their doom and gloom forecast for the rest of the year, or even next (2nd) qtr, was negative, and the stock was trashed. Surprisingly, I have also seen companies beat the 1st qtr forecasts/estimates, and speak well of the rest of the year, and still get trounced. Mostly happens on a bad day, but I've seen it on good days as well. Guess you just can't please all the people all the time. I look at the charts of every company I can find that says it will meet or beat expectations, regardless of whether it went up or down on the news. So far, I have not added many companies to my watch list with this method. Almost every one I faulted for some reason, often low RS. The only place I still am able to consistently find viable candidates is from the new highs stocks. And then only if I really like the chart, as well as all the fundies. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net - ----- Original Message ----- From: Hugh Fader To: CANSLIM List (E-mail) Sent: Monday, April 30, 2001 8:50 PM Subject: [CANSLIM] PIR Nosedive PIR revised estimates today and took a dump. Fortunately I don't own it, but am looking for a lesson. It broke out on 4/10 on double average volume. Just buying in the first place would violate some rules: price < $16, +12% EPS last quarter. Assuming you bought on the breakout, what do you see in the action following this that might have led you to sell? Add to my list below: 1. First day after breakout price fell below pivot on heavy volume. Closed at its low. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ End of canslim-digest V2 #1330 ****************************** To unsubscribe to canslim-digest, send an email to "majordomo@xmission.com" with "unsubscribe canslim-digest" in the body of the message. For information on digests or retrieving files and old messages send "help" to the same address. Do not use quotes in your message.