From: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com (canslim-digest) To: canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Subject: canslim-digest V2 #1334 Reply-To: canslim Sender: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Errors-To: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Precedence: bulk Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable X-No-Archive: yes canslim-digest Wednesday, May 2 2001 Volume 02 : Number 1334 In this issue: RE: [CANSLIM] PHM RE: [CANSLIM] low vol handle RE: [CANSLIM] low vol handle Re: [CANSLIM] low vol handle [CANSLIM] SERO Re: [CANSLIM] USPH Re: [CANSLIM] DFXI Pullback Re: [CANSLIM] Ouch, that hurts Re: [CANSLIM] Ouch, that hurts [CANSLIM] CPRT gap up 4 days in a row Re: [CANSLIM] Ouch, that hurts [CANSLIM] Please help us get our confidence back Re: [CANSLIM] Please help us get our confidence back Re: [CANSLIM] DFXI Pullback ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Date: Wed, 02 May 2001 17:35:27 -0600 From: esetser Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] PHM This was a personal observation based on the stocks I owned and several others I was watching. For the day, IBD shows that the group was off 2% and was one of the 10 weakest groups in the entire market for the day (underlined). The #2 rank is based on 6 months of action, so it won't generally react a significant amount to one or two days of weakness or strength. At 07:42 AM 5/2/01 -0700, you wrote: > Builders were weak? Bldg-Residential/Commercial ranks 2nd today in IBD. >Am I missing something? >Thanks. -----Original Message----- >From: esetser [mailto:esetser@covad.net] >Sent: Tuesday, May 01, 2001 7:23 PM >To: canslim@lists.xmission.com >Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] PHM > Two things happened this week 1 - PHM was specifically downgraded >yesterday as a part of a generally > Most of the builders were weak, PHM was >worse. > As is usually the case, the > Wish I had grabbed WBB instead!!! At 06:38 PM 5/1/01 -0700, you wrote: >> <>" made the following >> annotations on 05/01/01 18:36:39 >> >--------------------------------------------------------------------------- - --- >> This message, including any attachments, may include >> Any distribution or >>use of this communication by anyone other than the intended recipient(s) is >> If you are not the intended >>recipient, please notify the sender by replying to this message and then >>delete it from your system. Thank you. >> >> >> >=========================================================================== === >> - >"" >"" or >"" Do not use quotes in your email. <>" made the following > annotations on 05/02/01 07:40:45 > - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ > PLEASE NOTE: This message, including any attachments, may include >privileged, confidential and/or inside information. Any distribution or >use of this communication by anyone other than the intended recipient(s) is >strictly prohibited and may be unlawful. If you are not the intended >recipient, please notify the sender by replying to this message and then >delete it from your system. Thank you. > > > ============================================================================== > - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 2 May 2001 19:36:23 -0400 From: asosis@ca.ibm.com Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] low vol handle This is a matter of personal preference and also a matter of where support/resistance is. I prefer to use high of the handle because in that case support (the handle itself) is not far away (usually, but not always). However, say the top of the handle is at 100 and 52weeks high is 102. Also, say you notice that in the past the stock has tried to penetrate 102 level at least twice and was not able to do so. In this case I would make pivot = 52 weeks high. I know that many here use 52 weeks high as pivot, so again, this is a matter or personal preference. "DiFabio, Nancy" @lists.xmission.com on 05/02/2001 06:34:51 PM Please respond to canslim@lists.xmission.com Sent by: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com To: "'canslim@lists.xmission.com'" cc: Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] low vol handle In calculating the pivot point, do you draw your attention to the highest point in the handle or is your focal point the 52 week hi? WON suggests that we concentrate on the highs in the handle. If a stock reaches its 52 week high, the 52 week hi being higher than the highest part of the handle, do I forget about the stock because the price is over the pivot point (in the handle) or is the 52 week price high my basis for deciding if the stock price is overextended? Does anyone understand my question? Can someone give me a simple formula? - -----Original Message----- From: Tom Worley [mailto:stkguru@netside.net] Sent: Wednesday, May 02, 2001 6:30 AM To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] low vol handle Assuming that the handle forms close to the left rim of the cup, and that the left rim was also the prior high, then I would expect volume as the handle begins to form. As it gets out into the second week of the handle, I look for the volume to decrease well below ADV, indicating that the wave of selling (from both sources you mention) is over. That's when the likelihood of a b/o begins to get serious. If the handle forms measurably below the prior high / left rim, then the volume may only come from those who bot the bottom or right side of the cup. This may warn you of further resistance as it moves up to the price of the left rim. That's why I only review (for my personal lists) stocks hitting new highs. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net - ----- Original Message ----- From: Norman To: Sent: Wednesday, May 02, 2001 9:14 AM Subject: [CANSLIM] low vol handle OK, for my continuing education, why is a low vol handle superior/desirable? If the point of forming a handle is to let those who bot near the previous high get out, wouldn't we want to see a lot of selling by those folks. In addition, wouldn't the selling of those who bot the bottom, combined with the selling of those who bot the last high (and want to break even) make for good vol near the pivot (=handle area)? Norman Boyd theboyd@tisd.net - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. "WorldSecure " made the following annotations on 05/02/01 15:33:05 - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ PLEASE NOTE: This message, including any attachments, may include privileged, confidential and/or inside information. Any distribution or use of this communication by anyone other than the intended recipient(s) is strictly prohibited and may be unlawful. If you are not the intended recipient, please notify the sender by replying to this message and then delete it from your system. Thank you. ============================================================================== - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 02 May 2001 17:51:15 -0600 From: esetser Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] low vol handle My opinion is: 1) For a cup with handle, generally you want the high of the handle to form below the 52 week high, and above the 50% point of the cup, preferably above the 75% point of the cup. 2) For a cup with handle, the pivot point is 0.13 above the highest point of the handle. 3) Sometimes stocks form a cup or saucer and go to new highs without forming a handle. In these cases, you can set a pivot point at 0.13 above the 52 week high. However, be careful, because WON says these patterns are more failure prone than cup with handles. 4) For flat bases, stocks where the correction is something like 5-15% or so, it is normal for the pivot to be set at 0.13 above the 52 week high. For all of these cases, a stock would be considered extended at anything over the pivot + 5%. However, I have seen stocks that formed multiple handles, so there CAN be other buying opps. I also have made purchases where I missed a handle, and then bot the 52 week high pivot. I'm not sure if this is consistent with WONs teachings or not. At 03:34 PM 5/2/01 -0700, you wrote: > In calculating the pivot point, do you draw your attention to the >highest point in the handle or is your focal point the 52 week hi? WON >suggests that we concentrate on the highs in the handle. >If a stock reaches its 52 week high, the 52 week hi being higher than the >highest part of the handle, do I forget about the stock because the price >is over the pivot point (in the handle) or is the 52 week price high my >basis for deciding if the stock price is overextended? Does anyone >understand my question? Can someone give me a simple formula? >-----Original Message----- >From: Tom Worley [mailto:stkguru@netside.net] >Sent: Wednesday, May 02, 2001 6:30 AM >To: canslim@lists.xmission.com >Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] low vol handle > Assuming that the handle forms close to the left rim of the cup, >and that the left rim was also the prior high, then I would >expect volume as the handle begins to form. As it gets out into >the second week of the handle, I look for the volume to decrease >well below ADV, indicating that the wave of selling (from both >sources you mention) is over. That's when the likelihood of a b/o >begins to get serious. If the handle forms measurably below the prior >high / left rim, >then the volume may only come from those who bot the bottom or >right side of the cup. This may warn you of further resistance as >it moves up to the price of the left rim. That's why I only >review (for my personal lists) stocks hitting new highs. Tom Worley >stkguru@netside.net > ----- Original Message ----- ><> ><> >Sent: Wednesday, May 02, 2001 9:14 AM >Subject: [CANSLIM] low vol handle > OK, for my continuing education, why is a low vol handle >superior/desirable? >If the point of forming a handle is to let those who bot near the >previous >high get out, wouldn't we want to see a lot of selling by those > In >addition, wouldn't the selling of those who bot the bottom, >combined with >the selling of those who bot the last high (and want to break >even) make for >good vol near the pivot (=handle area)? Norman Boyd >theboyd@tisd.net > > - >"" >"" or >"" Do not use quotes in your email. > > - >"" >"" or >"" Do not use quotes in your email. <>" made the following > annotations on 05/02/01 15:33:05 > - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ > PLEASE NOTE: This message, including any attachments, may include >privileged, confidential and/or inside information. Any distribution or >use of this communication by anyone other than the intended recipient(s) is >strictly prohibited and may be unlawful. If you are not the intended >recipient, please notify the sender by replying to this message and then >delete it from your system. Thank you. > > > ============================================================================== > - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 2 May 2001 20:00:51 EDT From: Spencer48@aol.com Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] low vol handle Nancy: Nancy, I believe I understand your question. WON says that the pivot point is when the stock rises 13 cents above the handle on at least 1.5 average daily volume. The 52 week high should be looked at as a possible resistance point; however, as I understand WON, the "13 cents above the handle" should be the focal point. Also, I believe I read in one of WON answers (on the IBD site) that he usually disregards highs which are more than 1 year away-because by then weak hands have usually sold so the resistance point is less resistant to upswings in the stock. Many subscribe to the belief that another possible resistance point (and possible retracement area in an LLUR) occurs when the stock is 2x the 200 DMA or 1.5x the 50 DMA. WON says that the pivot point (13 cents above the handle top) needn't be on a closing basis-but I wait for the closing. I also take into consideration the 52 week hi and the DMA's (2x the 200 and 1.5x the 50). Also (your question provoked this theoretical observation), I would think that if the 52 week hi is above and close to the pivot point, then the stock, after rising on high volume past the pivot point, will consolidate or base at the 52 week hi. Thus, assuming there is a tight range, volume is low, and the stock doesn't go below the pivot point, I would think that that price would be an excellent point to buy new shares. jans In a message dated 5/2/2001 6:35:40 PM Eastern Daylight Time, NDiFabio@irell.com writes: << In calculating the pivot point, do you draw your attention to the highest point in the handle or is your focal point the 52 week hi? WON suggests that we concentrate on the highs in the handle. If a stock reaches its 52 week high, the 52 week hi being higher than the highest part of the handle, do I forget about the stock because the price is over the pivot point (in the handle) or is the 52 week price high my basis for deciding if the stock price is overextended? >> - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 2 May 2001 20:03:37 EDT From: Kraus0R@cs.com Subject: [CANSLIM] SERO I'm interested in some group feedback on SERO. My take is that we're in the handle of a C&H. IBD numbers look good, even garnering an A+ from the stock check-up. Earnings announced after market close were 100% greater than the same qtr a year ago. One knock so far is that it's not within the top few in their group. Any other thoughts ? Thanks, Roger - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 2 May 2001 17:19:02 -0700 (PDT) From: Kent Norman Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] USPH I got in at 18.98 on Friday and my hard stop activated at 17.50 Tuesday morning. As soon as the market learned that I had bailed, it went up 40% from there in 2 days. Oh well, at least I have hope something else will come along. Wrong way Kent Norman - --- DougC wrote: > I bought into USPH late last week at 18.35. It's not > the prettiest c&h, if > that is a handle. If it is I guess it could be > called a mid-level handle. > On monday I started worrying that I got in too early > to yet another stock. > Looks like the handle wedgeing up. So I sold half > tues morning before I had > seen any indication of a runup. If I had known it > had popped up to 29 this > morning and could have gotten the rest out I would > of. Considering getting > out with the rest at anything better than 22bucks > which would give me a 20% > or better return in one week. Not sure I trust this > market. Been burned too > many times with breakouts like these this past year. > On the other > hand...yesterday was impressive 10x vol. Today is > already 5x. Maybe I will > hang on. Earnings announcement was very good. .18 > eps vs. .10 (125%) and > rev up 28%. > > At 09:20 AM 5/2/01 -0700, you wrote: > >Discl: I am IN! The one bright spot in my portfolio > besides the video > >gamers is USPH, broke out yesterday and today from > a saucer & short > >handle, made it almost to $25 today before falling > back a bit. Supposedly > >opened at $29, talk about screwing the market > orders placed last night! > >Extended a bit right now, pivot was 22.875, but > just thought I'd lighten > >the mood a bit! > > > > > >Tim Fisher > >Ore-ROCK-On Rockhounding Web Site > >Pacific Fishery Biologists Information > >mailto:tim@OreRockOn.com > >WWW http://OreRockOn.com > > > > > >- > >-To subscribe/unsubscribe, email > "majordomo@xmission.com" > >-In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > >-"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your > email. > > > - > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email > "majordomo@xmission.com" > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. __________________________________________________ Do You Yahoo!? Yahoo! Auctions - buy the things you want at great prices http://auctions.yahoo.com/ - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 2 May 2001 17:22:27 -0700 (PDT) From: Kent Norman Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] DFXI Pullback Thanks Tom When you say "resume a fresh b/o; base" does the 7 week count down start over or continue? (not that it actually had a handle any how, just talking theory) Thanks Kent Norman - --- Tom Worley wrote: > Dave and Kent, > > I definitely would consider it as a failed breakout, > as both the > volume and price action previously should meet > anyone's criteria > as a "breakout". What to do now, and why did it > fail? > > Today's volume at over 3X ADV, and assuming there > was no news on > the company or sector/group, is still serious. Maybe > it just got > infested recently with a lot of day traders. Or > maybe the bottom > fishers who bot in the bottom of the cup, or up > along the right > side of the cup, got tired of waiting. In any event, > it now has > several possibilities: resume a fresh b/o; base, > fall further. > Until the stock makes up its mind, it's not a buying > opportunity. > > It does have excellent CS qualities, as well as > excellent > sequential and year to year comparisons. So I doubt > it's done, > but should be on your watch list rather than a "hot > buy" list. > Let it base, if it's going to do that, or let it b/o > again on > confirmatory volume. > > Tom Worley > stkguru@netside.net > > > ----- Original Message ----- > From: Kent Norman > To: > Sent: Tuesday, May 01, 2001 10:11 PM > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] DFXI Pullback > > > WONDERFUL QUESTION Dave > I have wondered that many times! > I have read about a price falling back to the base > and > giving another chance to buy in. Perhaps it has > something to do with how far it falls? If it goes > below the former bottom channel perhaps? > > Just my guess > Kent Norman > > --- Dave Rubin wrote: > > DFXI is back to within 5% of its pivot on lower > > volume. Is this a failed BO > > in the making or an opportunity to get in? > > > > > > - > > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email > > "majordomo@xmission.com" > > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your > email. > > > __________________________________________________ > Do You Yahoo!? > Yahoo! Auctions - buy the things you want at great > prices > http://auctions.yahoo.com/ > > - > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email > "majordomo@xmission.com" > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your > email. > > > > - > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email > "majordomo@xmission.com" > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. __________________________________________________ Do You Yahoo!? Yahoo! Auctions - buy the things you want at great prices http://auctions.yahoo.com/ - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 2 May 2001 17:28:06 -0700 (PDT) From: Kent Norman Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Ouch, that hurts Earl Looking back, we can see that home builders had been leading for quite a while. It was only a matter of time till they ran out of steam. Perhaps we should start looking for an age limit? Does anyone have information on how long typical (if there is such a thing) leaders keep the lead? I hope this is an early signal that the new leaders are moving into position... Now If we can just figure out who they are... Any nominations from the group??? Regards Kent Norman - --- esetser wrote: > First, I have had a couple of people respond to my > Clearstation "sell" > notifications here. For those who didn't know, my > original message wasn't > posted here, and it basically said I was dumped out > of several stocks. > > Now, back to our regularly scheduled program..... > > > Ouch. I went into this week with 3 Home Builders, 2 > other stocks, and > added my last position in PPDI yesterday morning. > At that point, 4 of 5 > stocks were up nicely, and I was thinking maybe this > rally would be > different. Here we are about 1 1/2 trading day > later, and I've been > stopped out of 4 positions, and lost another 4% of > my funds (more or less). > I got burned 2-fold. > > I had 3 Home Builders, and all 3 went down strongly > on Monday and Tuesday. > One, MDC, was up for a while today, but then > plummeted. In the end, I took > losses on all three as they hit my stops. Overall, > I'm very surprised to > see an industry group that is ranked #1, and has > 5-10 potential CANSLIM > breakouts in about a week fail so strongly. Is this > something that happens > to the top group very often? Have others witnessed > this kind of meltdown > very often? > > My other position was PPDI. It had moved up nicely > late last week, and > then seemed to be resting a bit just above the > pivot. It looked ready to > move higher, especially with its group moving up > rapidly, so I gave it a > shot. It dropped rapidly today and I sold out as > soon as I saw the drop > (about 10%). After looking closer, I found that the > stock had moved up on > the earnings annoucement last week, but there was a > VERY UNUSUAL dividend > announced, 1 share/share owned. In other words, > everyone who owned the > stock as of Thursday (I think) gets an extra share > in a few weeks. At that > point, anyone who wanted to could sell all their > holdings at a new high, > and still have the same amount of stock in 3 weeks. > Given this, there > seems to be a lot of downward pressure on the stock. > I mean, the value of > last week's holders doubled instantly. I expect > HUGE downward pressure on > the stock over the next few weeks, and today was an > example. This is > clearly my fault for not reading the news before > buying, but has anyone > seen this kind of dividend before? Is it likely > that the stock price would > hold up to a "double"? This seems really unusual to > me. > > - > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email > "majordomo@xmission.com" > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. __________________________________________________ Do You Yahoo!? Yahoo! Auctions - buy the things you want at great prices http://auctions.yahoo.com/ - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 2 May 2001 17:47:06 -0700 From: "Bill Triffet" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Ouch, that hurts Maybe the techs? I see that networking is making a comeback... - -Bill Triffet - ----- Original Message ----- From: "Kent Norman" To: Sent: Wednesday, May 02, 2001 5:28 PM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Ouch, that hurts > Earl > > Looking back, we can see that home builders had been > leading for quite a while. It was only a matter of > time till they ran out of steam. Perhaps we should > start looking for an age limit? > > Does anyone have information on how long typical (if > there is such a thing) leaders keep the lead? > > I hope this is an early signal that the new leaders > are moving into position... Now If we can just figure > out who they are... > > Any nominations from the group??? > > Regards > Kent Norman > --- esetser wrote: > > First, I have had a couple of people respond to my > > Clearstation "sell" > > notifications here. For those who didn't know, my > > original message wasn't > > posted here, and it basically said I was dumped out > > of several stocks. > > > > Now, back to our regularly scheduled program..... > > > > > > Ouch. I went into this week with 3 Home Builders, 2 > > other stocks, and > > added my last position in PPDI yesterday morning. > > At that point, 4 of 5 > > stocks were up nicely, and I was thinking maybe this > > rally would be > > different. Here we are about 1 1/2 trading day > > later, and I've been > > stopped out of 4 positions, and lost another 4% of > > my funds (more or less). > > I got burned 2-fold. > > > > I had 3 Home Builders, and all 3 went down strongly > > on Monday and Tuesday. > > One, MDC, was up for a while today, but then > > plummeted. In the end, I took > > losses on all three as they hit my stops. Overall, > > I'm very surprised to > > see an industry group that is ranked #1, and has > > 5-10 potential CANSLIM > > breakouts in about a week fail so strongly. Is this > > something that happens > > to the top group very often? Have others witnessed > > this kind of meltdown > > very often? > > > > My other position was PPDI. It had moved up nicely > > late last week, and > > then seemed to be resting a bit just above the > > pivot. It looked ready to > > move higher, especially with its group moving up > > rapidly, so I gave it a > > shot. It dropped rapidly today and I sold out as > > soon as I saw the drop > > (about 10%). After looking closer, I found that the > > stock had moved up on > > the earnings annoucement last week, but there was a > > VERY UNUSUAL dividend > > announced, 1 share/share owned. In other words, > > everyone who owned the > > stock as of Thursday (I think) gets an extra share > > in a few weeks. At that > > point, anyone who wanted to could sell all their > > holdings at a new high, > > and still have the same amount of stock in 3 weeks. > > Given this, there > > seems to be a lot of downward pressure on the stock. > > I mean, the value of > > last week's holders doubled instantly. I expect > > HUGE downward pressure on > > the stock over the next few weeks, and today was an > > example. This is > > clearly my fault for not reading the news before > > buying, but has anyone > > seen this kind of dividend before? Is it likely > > that the stock price would > > hold up to a "double"? This seems really unusual to > > me. > > > > - > > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email > > "majordomo@xmission.com" > > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your > email. > > > __________________________________________________ > Do You Yahoo!? > Yahoo! Auctions - buy the things you want at great prices > http://auctions.yahoo.com/ > > - > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 2 May 2001 17:52:05 -0700 (PDT) From: Kent Norman Subject: [CANSLIM] CPRT gap up 4 days in a row Any comments on CPRT gap up in the morning for 4 days in a row? Thanks Kent Norman __________________________________________________ Do You Yahoo!? Yahoo! Auctions - buy the things you want at great prices http://auctions.yahoo.com/ - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 2 May 2001 17:53:02 -0700 (PDT) From: Kent Norman Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Ouch, that hurts I hope, I hope, I hope, Any specific names? Kent - --- Bill Triffet wrote: > Maybe the techs? I see that networking is making a > comeback... > > -Bill Triffet > > ----- Original Message ----- > From: "Kent Norman" > To: > Sent: Wednesday, May 02, 2001 5:28 PM > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Ouch, that hurts > > > > Earl > > > > Looking back, we can see that home builders had > been > > leading for quite a while. It was only a matter of > > time till they ran out of steam. Perhaps we should > > start looking for an age limit? > > > > Does anyone have information on how long typical > (if > > there is such a thing) leaders keep the lead? > > > > I hope this is an early signal that the new > leaders > > are moving into position... Now If we can just > figure > > out who they are... > > > > Any nominations from the group??? > > > > Regards > > Kent Norman > > --- esetser wrote: > > > First, I have had a couple of people respond to > my > > > Clearstation "sell" > > > notifications here. For those who didn't know, > my > > > original message wasn't > > > posted here, and it basically said I was dumped > out > > > of several stocks. > > > > > > Now, back to our regularly scheduled > program..... > > > > > > > > > Ouch. I went into this week with 3 Home > Builders, 2 > > > other stocks, and > > > added my last position in PPDI yesterday > morning. > > > At that point, 4 of 5 > > > stocks were up nicely, and I was thinking maybe > this > > > rally would be > > > different. Here we are about 1 1/2 trading day > > > later, and I've been > > > stopped out of 4 positions, and lost another 4% > of > > > my funds (more or less). > > > I got burned 2-fold. > > > > > > I had 3 Home Builders, and all 3 went down > strongly > > > on Monday and Tuesday. > > > One, MDC, was up for a while today, but then > > > plummeted. In the end, I took > > > losses on all three as they hit my stops. > Overall, > > > I'm very surprised to > > > see an industry group that is ranked #1, and has > > > 5-10 potential CANSLIM > > > breakouts in about a week fail so strongly. Is > this > > > something that happens > > > to the top group very often? Have others > witnessed > > > this kind of meltdown > > > very often? > > > > > > My other position was PPDI. It had moved up > nicely > > > late last week, and > > > then seemed to be resting a bit just above the > > > pivot. It looked ready to > > > move higher, especially with its group moving up > > > rapidly, so I gave it a > > > shot. It dropped rapidly today and I sold out > as > > > soon as I saw the drop > > > (about 10%). After looking closer, I found that > the > > > stock had moved up on > > > the earnings annoucement last week, but there > was a > > > VERY UNUSUAL dividend > > > announced, 1 share/share owned. In other words, > > > everyone who owned the > > > stock as of Thursday (I think) gets an extra > share > > > in a few weeks. At that > > > point, anyone who wanted to could sell all their > > > holdings at a new high, > > > and still have the same amount of stock in 3 > weeks. > > > Given this, there > > > seems to be a lot of downward pressure on the > stock. > > > I mean, the value of > > > last week's holders doubled instantly. I expect > > > HUGE downward pressure on > > > the stock over the next few weeks, and today was > an > > > example. This is > > > clearly my fault for not reading the news before > > > buying, but has anyone > > > seen this kind of dividend before? Is it likely > > > that the stock price would > > > hold up to a "double"? This seems really > unusual to > > > me. > > > > > > - > > > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email > > > "majordomo@xmission.com" > > > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > > > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in > your > > email. > > > > > > __________________________________________________ > > Do You Yahoo!? > > Yahoo! Auctions - buy the things you want at great > prices > > http://auctions.yahoo.com/ > > > > - > > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email > "majordomo@xmission.com" > > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your > email. > > > - > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email > "majordomo@xmission.com" > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. __________________________________________________ Do You Yahoo!? Yahoo! Auctions - buy the things you want at great prices http://auctions.yahoo.com/ - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 2 May 2001 17:58:35 -0700 From: "Tracie Oken" Subject: [CANSLIM] Please help us get our confidence back We are a husband and wife who both follow CANSLIM. We have been reading IBD for 5 years and have used most of the CANSLIM criteria to pick stocks but only recently have spent the time to try to understand the various bases and breakout strategies. We each buy different stocks but have had little success the past two weeks as almost all our breakouts have failed. In the past (pre-2000), before we were focusing on breakouts, we were more successful with CANSLIM. Even more frustrating is that while the market is advancing our stocks are losing ground. WON says to ignore the prior market leaders which are beaten up but they are the ones going up 5-10% per day. Can anyone offer any consolation (and/or advice)? - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 2 May 2001 18:09:43 -0700 (PDT) From: Kent Norman Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Please help us get our confidence back Hello Tracie & Hubby I know how you feel. If you look back through the past few weeks of posts to the group, you will notice the same theme. My best guess is we are just a little bit early yet. The old leaders have not quite given up the ghost, and the new leaders have yet to emerge. There is no law that says the new leaders will emerge the same day as the old ones die. We are in the right season even if the particular day is off. One thing is for sure, the market mood is much better now than a few weeks ago. I suspect that if you tape your message to the fridge, It will look totally different in a year or two. The bull should run for several years, so these few days may seem long now, but in a year, I think they will look like the brief moment they really are. Wanting to be patient too. (but not doing very well) Kent Norman - --- Tracie Oken wrote: > We are a husband and wife who both follow CANSLIM. > We have been reading IBD > for 5 years and have used most of the CANSLIM > criteria to pick stocks but > only recently have spent the time to try to > understand the various bases and > breakout strategies. We each buy different stocks > but have had little > success the past two weeks as almost all our > breakouts have failed. In the > past (pre-2000), before we were focusing on > breakouts, we were more > successful with CANSLIM. Even more frustrating is > that while the market is > advancing our stocks are losing ground. WON says to > ignore the prior market > leaders which are beaten up but they are the ones > going up 5-10% per day. > Can anyone offer any consolation (and/or advice)? > > > - > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email > "majordomo@xmission.com" > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. __________________________________________________ Do You Yahoo!? Yahoo! Auctions - buy the things you want at great prices http://auctions.yahoo.com/ - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 2 May 2001 22:30:39 -0400 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] DFXI Pullback Hi Kent, I always try to look at the overall chart picture. I have had charts where the initial b/o was sharp and quick, and immediately returned to the base. Where the base was well defined and established, I considered that as a continuation of the base (not unusual for a stock to take several attempts to b/o before succeeding). Where the base was either not yet established, or was already pretty sloppy, then I had to wait and see what it would do from there. Sometimes the failed b/o stabilized its trading range, and it would form a much better base (handle) after the failed b/o. In that case, I considered it something of a character shift, and starting counting the base from the failed b/o. If the failed b/o, however, carries the stock measurably below a well established and defined prior base, then I start the count all over again, and treat that as both a failed b/o and a failed base. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net - ----- Original Message ----- From: Kent Norman To: Sent: Wednesday, May 02, 2001 8:22 PM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] DFXI Pullback Thanks Tom When you say "resume a fresh b/o; base" does the 7 week count down start over or continue? (not that it actually had a handle any how, just talking theory) Thanks Kent Norman - --- Tom Worley wrote: > Dave and Kent, > > I definitely would consider it as a failed breakout, > as both the > volume and price action previously should meet > anyone's criteria > as a "breakout". What to do now, and why did it > fail? > > Today's volume at over 3X ADV, and assuming there > was no news on > the company or sector/group, is still serious. Maybe > it just got > infested recently with a lot of day traders. Or > maybe the bottom > fishers who bot in the bottom of the cup, or up > along the right > side of the cup, got tired of waiting. In any event, > it now has > several possibilities: resume a fresh b/o; base, > fall further. > Until the stock makes up its mind, it's not a buying > opportunity. > > It does have excellent CS qualities, as well as > excellent > sequential and year to year comparisons. So I doubt > it's done, > but should be on your watch list rather than a "hot > buy" list. > Let it base, if it's going to do that, or let it b/o > again on > confirmatory volume. > > Tom Worley > stkguru@netside.net > > > ----- Original Message ----- > From: Kent Norman > To: > Sent: Tuesday, May 01, 2001 10:11 PM > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] DFXI Pullback > > > WONDERFUL QUESTION Dave > I have wondered that many times! > I have read about a price falling back to the base > and > giving another chance to buy in. Perhaps it has > something to do with how far it falls? If it goes > below the former bottom channel perhaps? > > Just my guess > Kent Norman > > --- Dave Rubin wrote: > > DFXI is back to within 5% of its pivot on lower > > volume. Is this a failed BO > > in the making or an opportunity to get in? > > > > > > - > > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email > > "majordomo@xmission.com" > > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your > email. > > > __________________________________________________ > Do You Yahoo!? > Yahoo! Auctions - buy the things you want at great > prices > http://auctions.yahoo.com/ > > - > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email > "majordomo@xmission.com" > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your > email. > > > > - > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email > "majordomo@xmission.com" > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. __________________________________________________ Do You Yahoo!? Yahoo! Auctions - buy the things you want at great prices http://auctions.yahoo.com/ - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ End of canslim-digest V2 #1334 ****************************** To unsubscribe to canslim-digest, send an email to "majordomo@xmission.com" with "unsubscribe canslim-digest" in the body of the message. For information on digests or retrieving files and old messages send "help" to the same address. Do not use quotes in your message.