From: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com (canslim-digest) To: canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Subject: canslim-digest V2 #138 Reply-To: canslim Sender: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Errors-To: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Precedence: bulk canslim-digest Sunday, March 8 1998 Volume 02 : Number 138 In this issue: Re: [CANSLIM] CPQ [CANSLIM] Question about SPF [CANSLIM] PLAB Re: [CANSLIM] Question about SPF Re: [CANSLIM] Question about SPF Re: [CANSLIM] The market (was CPQ) [CANSLIM] Friday was a classic distribution day Re: [CANSLIM] Question about SPF [CANSLIM] I am 100% cash and looking for which stocks to put on watch list..... Re: [CANSLIM] Question about SPF Re: [CANSLIM] Question about SPF [CANSLIM] Re: Scans and watch lists Re: [CANSLIM] Question about SPF [CANSLIM] My recent postings [CANSLIM] My LLUR Watch List Re: [CANSLIM] I am 100% cash and looking for which stocks to put on watch list..... [CANSLIM] Selling: Stops & Comments about the Market (was: Question about SPF) ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Date: Fri, 06 Mar 1998 21:45:02 -0600 From: Dave Cameron Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] CPQ Tom Worley wrote: > > For those that didn't already pick up on the news, after the close on Friday > Compaq announced that its sales will be flat compared to the fourth qtr, and > they expect a break even on earnings (First Call had them looking for around > 35 cents I believe). While analysts had already been cutting forecasts, and > the stock had already rolled over in anticipation, it still caused the stock > to drop another two bucks in after mkt trading tonight. Also Intel clarified > its earnings shortfall to be in the range of 25% below expectations (or > about 12 cents). We are now in the time period for major corps and mkt > leaders to do their pre-announcements if analysts haven't adjusted their > forecasts sufficiently. You should expect more of the same, at least with > big cap stocks with significant Asian or technology exposure. I think in > CPQ's case they did blame the Asian flu and weak currency exchange problems, > while in Intel's case they simply blamed weak PC mfr demand along with a > tough pricing environment. > Thanks for mentioning this, I hadn't seen it. I was a bit surprised to see the 'comeback' today. I figured that MOT's report would leave the market pretty much where it closed on Thursday. Shows what I know. I'm still heavily in. Thursday's drop didn't take me out of anything, except for the fact that I own 200 shares of INTC. I'm holding on though. Its not really CANSLIM, but when I knew I couldn't get my stop at 82 - I cancelled the order. INTC will likely trade for a while between 73 and 82. I don't see a big downside right now. I usually temper CANSLIM rules with intuition of sorts. None of my other stocks hit the stop on Thurs (but some got awful close). Most bounced back today - but not as much as the major indices. I wonder if CPQ will reverse that again... Dave Cameron > As an aside, I am expecting news like we had this past week from INTC, MOT > and CPQ to cause analysts to be ruthless in slashing earnings forecasts. The > net effect may be to create the same environment we saw today with the bond > mkt when the employment report was substantially stronger than forecast, but > much weaker than feared. It's a time to either stay in cash, or do an even > better job in your research and analysis of stocks. > > Any statements or opinions are strictly my own and not that of my employer. > My comments should not be interpreted as a recommendation of any kind. I am > a licensed (inactive) broker and an active investor. All investors should do > their own research prior to any investment, especially one learned about on > the Internet. Hopefully my comments will better inform and educate all > investors. > tom w > > - - - ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 06 Mar 1998 22:45:06 -0500 From: "John F. Nogueira" Subject: [CANSLIM] Question about SPF I have a question about what to do with SPF. I bought SPF when it broke out of a small base on 6x ADV about a month and a half ago. It had a good breakout, but for the past four weeks it has been basing around $17.5. Would anyone recommend selling SPF and watching it for another breakout from this secondary base, or holding on to it for at least two months from the time of purchase as William O'Neil talked about in his book? Here are the latest figures on SPF: EPS: 74 (last qtr: +400%, prev. qtr: +129%, Growth: N/A) RS: 94 Acc/Dis: A Groups RS: 98 Shares Out: 29.5 mil. Others in this group discussed SPF at the time it broke out, so I am hoping that some of you out there who might have bought it can help me out. John Nogueira, Jr. - - ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 06 Mar 1998 21:54:37 -0600 From: Dave Cameron Subject: [CANSLIM] PLAB Just to ruin any reputation I may have, a non-CANSLIM stock I like is PLAB. If you care why, read on. If you only consider CANSLIM, the RS rules this one out. PLAB had a sort-of C-and-H type chart until Thursday when it dropped 12% in sympathy with INTC. Its been on my screen for a while, because I was watching for a consolidation followed by a breakout. Well... the consolidation was aborted by the last couple days action. Just to be unpredictable, I bought some. This is one of those cases where PLAB has guilt by association. They are not a semi-conductor maker, but one of the few photomask creators. If you know anything about semi-conductors, you know that the technology changes do not affect PLAB as much as companies like INTC, MU, IDTI, etc. PLAB's biggest customer is TXN. TXN has not done really well of late, but it hasn't dropped as much as PLAB (nor has it fallen out of its current base). So... I bought PLAB because it formerly looked CANSLIM, and seems to have an overblown drop through no direct fault of its own. We'll see what happens. Dave Cameron - - ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 06 Mar 1998 22:14:55 -0600 From: Dave Cameron Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Question about SPF John F. Nogueira wrote: > > I have a question about what to do with SPF. I bought SPF when it broke > out of a small base on 6x ADV about a month and a half ago. It had a > good breakout, but for the past four weeks it has been basing around > $17.5. Would anyone recommend selling SPF and watching it for another > breakout from this secondary base, or holding on to it for at least two > months from the time of purchase as William O'Neil talked about in his > book? > OK.... I'm going to quit at 5 messages in one day, but I'll continue to be a blabbermouth. Keep in mind, I'm only 1 opinion - and not the world's greatest. SPF is in a tight base. I wouldn't sell unless it broke out on the downside or had a big runup. The EPS/RS would keep me in as well as the chart action. Dave Cameron - - ------------------------------ Date: Sat, 07 Mar 1998 11:59:30 +0100 From: Johan Van Houtven Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Question about SPF >I have a question about what to do with SPF. I would at least set a stop somewhere beneath the 50 DMA. It has bounced of the 50DMA several times during the last few weeks. A break on significant volume of the 50DMA would be bearish IMHO. If you do not feel "good" about how one of your stocks is behaving, then you could consider selling and putting the money in a stock that looks much better. Some might also want to consider the 'M' factor, the market. For me that also influences buying and selling decisions. Especialy buying. With the mine field of earnings preannouncements ahead I sold all I owned yesterday near the close, except half my position in MTMS & APSG. So I'm approx 80% in cash. The above is not a recommandation about what you should or shouldn't do, I only reflects my personal style. I'm primarily doing short term trading, not investing. - - ------------------------------ Date: Sat, 7 Mar 1998 07:28:54 -0500 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] The market (was CPQ) One other item worth mentioning is that the S&P 500 trailing PE closed at 26 on Friday. This is the highest it's been since I've been paying close attention to it (well over a year) and could be a record or close to it. This comes at a time, as I mentioned, when analysts are likely to be lowering earnings forecasts on big cap stocks. You were not alone in your surprise over the mkt's gains on Friday. Virtually every forecaster was also surprised. And the bond mkt rally in the face of apparently inflationary jobs nrs also caught some by surprise, altho at least I called that one right (a report in the low 300 thousands while well over expectations could be well under the fear level). The bond mkt was not only oversold, it was extremely pessimistic after the recent reversal from expecting a rate cut. Also worth noting that the adjustment to the Jan jobs nr was again up, by 17,000 more jobs. And the hourly wage, expected to gain 4 cents, was up 8 cents (for a 4.1% gain year over year), while the avg work week added another tenth of an hour, to the highest level in years. We may yet see a loosening in the labor pool, but so far it's not happening. Demand for labor is so tight that unemployment among workers WITHOUT A HIGH SCHOOL DIPLOMA is now down to 7% (a drop of 1.8% over the past year). Because of tight competition both domestically and internationally, mfr's have difficulty in passing along cost increases. They must try to offset higher labor and medical care costs thru increased productivity and better technology. But if inflation finally starts to rear its ugly head, it is most likely to come from these two arenas (labor and medical care costs). And if energy costs start back up from their current low levels after a mild El Nino inspired winter, then that would only add to the problem. Any statements or opinions are strictly my own and not that of my employer. My comments should not be interpreted as a recommendation of any kind. I am a licensed (inactive) broker and an active investor. All investors should do their own research prior to any investment, especially one learned about on the Internet. Hopefully my comments will better inform and educate all investors. tom w - -----Original Message----- From: Dave Cameron To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Date: Friday, March 06, 1998 10:42 PM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] CPQ >Tom Worley wrote: >> >Thanks for mentioning this, I hadn't seen it. I was a bit surprised to see >the 'comeback' today. I figured that MOT's report would leave the market >pretty much where it closed on Thursday. Shows what I know. I'm still >I don't see a big downside right now. I usually temper CANSLIM rules >with intuition of sorts. > - - ------------------------------ Date: Sat, 07 Mar 1998 08:34:06 -0500 From: Jeffry White <"postwhit@sover.net"@sover.net> Subject: [CANSLIM] Friday was a classic distribution day Peter Newell, I'm not sure what days you are referring to, and I don't think distribution days require a 1% price move. There were a number of distribution days on the way up in the Nasdaq. This is common, but Friday 2/27 (?) was a bit different, in my opinion. Sentiment had gotten quite bullish, and it made me cautious. Wednesday's rally to close virtually unchanged was the type of short term bottom from which I count for follow through, but Thursday's lower low started the clock again. Although Friday 3/6 was a remarkable recovery, I would be leary here of a "failed rally attempt". I'm off margin and holding only the strongest in my portfolio (WFMI, NBTY and PAYX) and will be in cash 100% with the first sign of failure. Could come as early as Monday. I think the Nasdaq chart in early October is worth a look. We had a pretty clear failed rally back around the middle of the month after a distribution day very similar in kind to 2/27 (?). I made it to cash once the rally failed, about a week before the crash. Hope to be so lucky this time, but would prefer no failure at all, of course. Good luck to you. Jeffry - - ------------------------------ Date: Sat, 07 Mar 1998 09:52:20 -0700 From: Tim Fisher Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Question about SPF I am still waiting for SPF to move. It passes my CASLI scan which is fairly strict. I don't see any reason to sell it; in fact if it breaks off this base I'm in. If I were you I'd be watching it too, but to buy a secondary position, not to sell. At 10:45 PM 3/6/98 -0500, you wrote: >I have a question about what to do with SPF. I bought SPF when it broke >out of a small base on 6x ADV about a month and a half ago. It had a >good breakout, but for the past four weeks it has been basing around >$17.5. Would anyone recommend selling SPF and watching it for another >breakout from this secondary base, or holding on to it for at least two >months from the time of purchase as William O'Neil talked about in his >book? > >Here are the latest figures on SPF: >EPS: 74 (last qtr: +400%, prev. qtr: +129%, Growth: N/A) >RS: 94 >Acc/Dis: A >Groups RS: 98 >Shares Out: 29.5 mil. > >Others in this group discussed SPF at the time it broke out, so I am >hoping that some of you out there who might have bought it can help me >out. > >John Nogueira, Jr. > Tim Fisher, 1995 President, Pacific Fishery Biologists Ore-ROCK-On Rockhounding Web Site PFB Information tfish@spiritone.com WWW http://www.spiritone.com/~tfish -- See naked fish and rocks! - - ------------------------------ Date: Sat, 7 Mar 1998 13:28:35 -0500 From: "Bud Barton" Subject: [CANSLIM] I am 100% cash and looking for which stocks to put on watch list..... This is a multi-part message in MIME format. - ------=_NextPart_000_0009_01BD49CC.EE8520A0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable I am watching WHIT, ROSE, and SPLS. Does anyone see any thing wrong with buying these if they start to rise? I really like Daily Graphs it is a wealth of information but would = really like to be able to scan on any combination of data provided. = Anyone think we could get them to add that as part of the service? Would some of the veterans on the list reply with a couple stocks they = have on their watch list with a brief explination of why? What is a good source on the internet to find the N part of canslim. I = realize there are tons of news services but how do you know if they are = pertinent to stock growth? - ------=_NextPart_000_0009_01BD49CC.EE8520A0 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
I am watching WHIT, ROSE, and = SPLS.
 
Does anyone see any thing wrong with = buying=20 these if they start to rise?
 
I really like Daily Graphs it is a = wealth of=20 information but would really like to be able to scan on any combination = of data=20 provided.  Anyone think we could get them to add that as part of = the=20 service?
 
Would some of the veterans on the list reply with a = couple=20 stocks they have on their watch list with a brief explination of=20 why?
 
What is a good source on the internet to find the N = part of=20 canslim.  I realize there are tons of news services but how do you = know if=20 they are pertinent to stock growth?
- ------=_NextPart_000_0009_01BD49CC.EE8520A0-- - - ------------------------------ Date: Sat, 7 Mar 1998 13:31:42 -0500 From: "Bud Barton" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Question about SPF >I am still waiting for SPF to move. It passes my CASLI scan which is fairly >strict. I don't see any reason to sell it; in fact if it breaks off this >base I'm in. If I were you I'd be watching it too, but to buy a secondary >position, not to sell. Sorry if I appear ignorant but is CASLI an abbreviated CANSLIM or a separate method and are you scanning IBD manually or is there an automated way you are scanning? - - ------------------------------ Date: Sat, 07 Mar 1998 10:38:03 -0700 From: Tim Fisher Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Question about SPF IMHO you should let your stops do the selling for you. You missed a nice run on Friday during which I and I suspect many others erased the losses of the prior week. I had one of the top 10 days since I started investing in stocks. At 11:59 AM 3/7/98 +0100, you wrote: > >With the mine field of earnings preannouncements ahead I sold all I owned >yesterday near the close, except half my position in MTMS & APSG. So I'm >approx 80% in cash. > >The above is not a recommandation about what you should or shouldn't do, I >only reflects my personal style. I'm primarily doing short term trading, >not investing. > Tim Fisher, 1995 President, Pacific Fishery Biologists Ore-ROCK-On Rockhounding Web Site PFB Information tfish@spiritone.com WWW http://www.spiritone.com/~tfish -- See naked fish and rocks! - - ------------------------------ Date: Sat, 07 Mar 1998 10:51:44 -0700 From: Tim Fisher Subject: [CANSLIM] Re: Scans and watch lists At 01:31 PM 3/7/98 -0500, you wrote: > > >>I am still waiting for SPF to move. It passes my CASLI scan which is fairly >>strict. I don't see any reason to sell it; in fact if it breaks off this >>base I'm in. If I were you I'd be watching it too, but to buy a secondary >>position, not to sell. > > >Sorry if I appear ignorant but is CASLI an abbreviated CANSLIM or a separate >method and are you scanning IBD manually or is there an automated way you >are scanning? > I am using Zacks free trial database and I don't scan for the N (price, management, mergers, splits, etc.) since I don't think it can be programmed in (unless you use price only - then you would miss some dandies!). Same for the M - I don't think you can write a scan to track it so I leech off of the members of this group who watch M like a hawk! P.S. Some that pass my scan and are on my watch list: MDC SPF USG PAYX ANLT TROW LGTO APOL NYT COMR CDT SCH NRVH TMBS Tim Fisher, 1995 President, Pacific Fishery Biologists Ore-ROCK-On Rockhounding Web Site PFB Information tfish@spiritone.com WWW http://www.spiritone.com/~tfish -- See naked fish and rocks! - - ------------------------------ Date: Sat, 07 Mar 1998 20:52:32 +0100 From: Johan Van Houtven Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Question about SPF Tim Fisher wrote: >IMHO you should let your stops do the selling for you. You missed a nice run >on Friday during which I and I suspect many others erased the losses of the >prior week. I had one of the top 10 days since I started investing in stocks. Tim, I first did not understand what you were talking about in the paragraph quoted above. What run were you talking of? Then it became clear to me that you assumed I was talking about SFP when I said "... I sold all I owned...". What I meant was that I sold all the stocks I owned at that moment. I did not own SPF. Just to clear that up. If you want to know I sold: MDCO, NE , CDG and GICOF and half my position in APSG & MTMS. Sorry for the confusion. (I live by the believe that: "The meaning of your communication is the responce you get.") >At 11:59 AM 3/7/98 +0100, you wrote: >> >>With the mine field of earnings preannouncements ahead I sold all I owned >>yesterday near the close, except half my position in MTMS & APSG. So I'm >>approx 80% in cash. >> >>The above is not a recommandation about what you should or shouldn't do, I >>only reflects my personal style. I'm primarily doing short term trading, >>not investing. >> >Tim Fisher, 1995 President, Pacific Fishery Biologists >Ore-ROCK-On Rockhounding Web Site >PFB Information >tfish@spiritone.com >WWW http://www.spiritone.com/~tfish -- See naked fish and rocks! > > >- > > - - ------------------------------ Date: Sat, 07 Mar 1998 15:10:00 -0600 From: Dave Cameron Subject: [CANSLIM] My recent postings I posted an uncharacteristic 5 messages on Friday, basically because I was catching up on a couple days of mail. Since then, I've received a couple private e-mails asking if I really follow CANSLIM since I own INTC & PLAB. My answer is "I primarily follow CANSLIM". But... I've been investing for 10 years, made my share of mistakes, and had my share of successes. I currently own 8 stocks (high for me). 3 of the 8 are not CANSLIM, the other 5 are. I have stops set on the 5 CANSLIM stocks. I also have a stop set on 1 of the 3 non-CANSLIM stocks. Of the other 2, one is INTC, the other is a long-term holding. From time-to-time I post on CANSLIM stocks (e.g. STRL, TMBS, HYSW, FDO have been part of this year's collection), but I don't hold exclusively to CANSLIM. Having said that, all 3 of my non-CANSLIM stocks were former CANSLIM stocks. Just clarifying, Dave Cameron - - ------------------------------ Date: Sat, 07 Mar 1998 17:12:20 -0700 From: Tim Fisher Subject: [CANSLIM] My LLUR Watch List More watch ist stocks, from Mike Artobello's CARS scan and my CASLI scan: MDC MTG PAYX SFSK SPF SYB Tim Fisher, 1995 President, Pacific Fishery Biologists Ore-ROCK-On Rockhounding Web Site PFB Information tfish@spiritone.com WWW http://www.spiritone.com/~tfish -- See naked fish and rocks! - - ------------------------------ Date: Sun, 08 Mar 1998 03:08:12 GMT From: musicant@autobahn.org (Dan Musicant) Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] I am 100% cash and looking for which stocks to put on watch list..... On Sat, 7 Mar 1998 13:28:35 -0500, you wrote: :I am watching WHIT, ROSE, and SPLS. : :Does anyone see any thing wrong with buying these if they start to rise? : :I really like Daily Graphs it is a wealth of information but would = really like to be able to scan on any combination of data provided. =20 :Anyone think we could get them to add that as part of the service? I certainly don't know the answer to this. I have been using DG Online Beta for a few months and do like it. It's easy to use, the charts are pretty graphic and have a lot of info. The downside is the lack of customization available. You cannot do any scanning based on criteria. My impression is that the software was developed with certain criteria in mind...those of the people who "ordered" it, Bill O'Neill and the staff at IBD and perhaps the staff of Daily Graphs. It looks to me like this is not the brain child of programmers, but rather the response of hired programmers to their clients' requirements. I often wonder about the very protracted beta period for this software, which seems pretty uncomplicated, from the user's standpoint. You choose a stock and you have 2 choices: Graph and Data Block. It seems pretty elementary. Being pretty used to applications that are at least a little interactive, I find it a bit disconcerting that I cannot enter any data into this program other than stock symbols. : :Would some of the veterans on the list reply with a couple stocks they = have on their watch list with a brief explination of why? : :What is a good source on the internet to find the N part of canslim. I = realize there are tons of news services but how do you know if they=20 :are pertinent to stock growth? - - ------------------------------ Date: Sun, 08 Mar 1998 16:30:23 +0100 From: Johan Van Houtven Subject: [CANSLIM] Selling: Stops & Comments about the Market (was: Question about SPF) Tim wrote: >IMHO you should let your stops do the selling for you. Partly. You should also look at what the market is telling you. O' Neil says you should sell 1 or 2 of your stocks, the worst performing ones, after you notice a few days (4) of distribution. You'd then be approx 20 to 25% in cash. Then sell another stock after the first rally failure. Etc. Ref: Craig Griffin's excellent post: "Reading a Mkt Downtrend (O'Neil's Chart). IMO we have had a few days of distribution on the NASDAQ lately. So one should be 20 to 25% in cash now. >You missed a nice run >on Friday during which I and I suspect many others erased the losses of the >prior week. I had one of the top 10 days since I started investing in stocks. See email. I did not sell on Thursday as you assumed. I sold near market close Friday. Still own 50% op my position in my best performing stocks. BTW, did anyone study the market top in October 1997? It gave only 2 sell signals before the low was put in. First you had a few days of distribution near the top. That would be the first sell signal. Then you had a rally failure on the 3rd (or 4th) day of the attempted ralley. That constitutes the second sell signal per O'Neil's technique. After that the low was put in, and your stops should have saved your butt. There were no 3rd or 4rd sell signals as described in the May/June 1997 example. O'Neil also says you should "Follow the Leaders for Market Clues" (p. 58) What do you guys consider the current Leaders? DELL (not really a just a *current* leader, is it?), IMRS, LHSPF, ... ? - - ------------------------------ End of canslim-digest V2 #138 ***************************** To unsubscribe to canslim-digest, send an email to "majordomo@xmission.com" with "unsubscribe canslim-digest" in the body of the message. For information on digests or retrieving files and old messages send "help" to the same address. Do not use quotes in your message.