From: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com (canslim-digest) To: canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Subject: canslim-digest V2 #1399 Reply-To: canslim Sender: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Errors-To: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Precedence: bulk Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable X-No-Archive: yes canslim-digest Thursday, May 24 2001 Volume 02 : Number 1399 In this issue: Re: [CANSLIM] IGT Re: [CANSLIM] Other indicators & canslim. Too much? Re: [CANSLIM] IGT Re: [CANSLIM] IGT Re: [CANSLIM] IGT RE: [CANSLIM] Other indicators & canslim. Too much? Re: [CANSLIM] Re: Analyst up/downgrades Re: [CANSLIM] COCO - beating a dead horse Re: [CANSLIM] IBD EPS Ratings ... Re: [CANSLIM] IBD EPS Ratings ... [CANSLIM] ROYL - classic climax blowoff. Re: [CANSLIM] IGT ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Date: Thu, 24 May 2001 08:49:02 -0700 (PDT) From: Dave Cameron Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] IGT You are no doubt correct. I guess, without thinking about it, technically I'd want the handle to be longer. I've mentally defined the base as where the cup ends and the handle starts. This seems to be in conflict with how WON defines it. So... if I use WON's terminology: 1. On a flat base I want to see at least 8 weeks. 2. On a handle I want to see at least 6 weeks. Not to say that IGT won't work - I hope it does. But... that's my take on it. Good catch, Dave - --- DougC wrote: > You don't consider the 7 week cup starting 03/07 a base? Have > you read p152 of HTMMIS. 'One of the most fundamental chart-base > price > patterns looks like a cup with a handle when the outline of a cup > is viewed > from the side. Cup patterns last, in time duration, from 7 to as > many as 65 > weeks. > The usual percentage correction from the absolute peak to the low > point of > the price pattern varies from 12 to 15% to 33%.' The depth of IGT > cup is around > 17%. > > At 07:05 AM 5/24/01 -0700, you wrote: > >I guess we differ on what we consider to be a base. I can see > and > >understand the way you are looking at it. For me, the base starts > >where you indicate the handle starts. Guess its all in the eye of > >the beholder.. > > > >--- DougC wrote: > > > I'm not sure I understand your point. I count the base of IGT > as > > > having a duration of 10 weeks. The left side of the cup started > > > on 03/07. The cup 7 weeks and the handle 3 weeks. It's short > > > but it is a base in a strongly uptrending stock with excellent > > > numbers. And I believe it's > > > breakout point of 57 should provide good support if tested. > > > 60 might even be good support. And any price between 57 > > > and 60 could provide a possible second chance entry. > > > > > > At 05:42 PM 5/23/01 -0700, you wrote: > > > >Just my take on IGT (since it does have CANSLIM > characteristics): > > > > > > > >If I owned it, I'd hold on. If I didn't (which I don't), I > > > wouldn't > > > >be a buyer. IMHO, it is pretty far removed from its last > base. > > > >For me, a base must be at least 6 weeks - preferably more - > for me > > > to > > > >buy into the stock. Generally, if I've bought on a breakout > of > > > less > > > >than 8 weeks - I've been wrong over 50% of the time. > > > > > > > >Just one man's opinion. > > > > > > > >Dave > > > > > > > >(p.s. In a recent IBD, Garrett VanWagoner "touted" EMLX and > EMBT. > > > >He looks at these as stocks that have great potential but got > > > >severely beaten down by the tech wreck. Interestingly > enough, > > > these > > > >stocks still have an RS of over 75 last time I looked despite > > > being > > > >way off their high. Not completely CANSLIM - but fits all > the > > > >characteristics except for being a good ways off the 52-week > > > high.) > > > > > > > > > > > >===== > > > >Dave Cameron > > > >dfcameron@yahoo.com > > > > > > > >__________________________________________________ > > > >Do You Yahoo!? > > > >Yahoo! Auctions - buy the things you want at great prices > > > >http://auctions.yahoo.com/ > > > > > > > >- > > > >-To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" > > > >-In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > > > >-"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. > > > > > > > > > - > > > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" > > > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > > > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. > > > > > >===== > >Dave Cameron > >dfcameron@yahoo.com > > > >__________________________________________________ > >Do You Yahoo!? > >Yahoo! Auctions - buy the things you want at great prices > >http://auctions.yahoo.com/ > > > >- > >-To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" > >-In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > >-"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. > > > - > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ===== Dave Cameron dfcameron@yahoo.com __________________________________________________ Do You Yahoo!? Yahoo! Auctions - buy the things you want at great prices http://auctions.yahoo.com/ - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 24 May 2001 09:20:44 -0700 From: "Bill Triffet" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Other indicators & canslim. Too much? I don't disagree with you about them being important. I'm just now (after 3 years) starting to look at MACD as a secondary indicator of a breakout or sell point. I would assume a good canslim breakout should confirm those indicators and vice versa. I just wanted the newer folks to realize it is not a primary indicator for canslim. If your new, it can cloud your efforts. Perhaps a revised O'Neil book will cover these and other tools for the "new" computer age. It was only brought up because 3-4 years ago there was similar threads covering additional indicators of which I couldn't find them in WON's material. - -Bill Triffet - ----- Original Message ----- From: "Dan" To: Sent: Wednesday, May 23, 2001 10:41 PM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Other indicators & canslim. Too much? > > > Bill Triffet wrote: > > > >From time to time I see posts here refering to additional technical > > indicators. I think these are great additional tools for the advanced folks > > and those with extra time to learn to incorporate them correctly. They might > > include the MACD and Stochastic indicators as a sample. I just want to say > > that these are not covered in HTMMIS and not somthing one needs to get too > > concerned about. I'm not saying we should not discuss these tools but I felt > > It sounds like you are equating oneil's not covering them to them being > unimportant! I view a few select ones as as essential as headlights at night: > dangerous without them. > > > > > > it needed to be explained to some of the newer folks here. > > I've been following canslim for 3 years now and have found there are enough > > tools for stock selection and selling that you can keep it simple. > > > > -Bill Triffet - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 24 May 2001 10:08:17 -0600 From: DougC Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] IGT I don't want to beat this to death but I'm just puzzled how you're coming up with your basing definitions. If whatever they are works for you that's fine. But I have to say I also disagree with your definition of a handle. From what I understand of CANSLIM or WON's or even some variations I've seen...the shorter the handle the better with a 1 to 2 week minimum. Personally I consider the three week handle of IGT a little long in proportion to the base. Would have liked to see it no longer than 2 weeks. But it was a very tight handle and was using the 50dma as support so so far it's worked out. Whether a basing pattern is c&H, or flat or double bottom is just a desciption of general price behavior. Bottom line is that if a stock like IGT has strong upward trending momentum like it had up to 03/07 then corrects with the market for a period of time it helps consolidate the stock into strong hands for further movement up through new 52 week highs. At 08:49 AM 5/24/01 -0700, you wrote: >You are no doubt correct. I guess, without thinking about it, >technically I'd want the handle to be longer. I've mentally defined >the base as where the cup ends and the handle starts. This seems to >be in conflict with how WON defines it. > >So... if I use WON's terminology: >1. On a flat base I want to see at least 8 weeks. >2. On a handle I want to see at least 6 weeks. > >Not to say that IGT won't work - I hope it does. But... that's my >take on it. > >Good catch, > >Dave > >--- DougC wrote: > > You don't consider the 7 week cup starting 03/07 a base? Have > > you read p152 of HTMMIS. 'One of the most fundamental chart-base > > price > > patterns looks like a cup with a handle when the outline of a cup > > is viewed > > from the side. Cup patterns last, in time duration, from 7 to as > > many as 65 > > weeks. > > The usual percentage correction from the absolute peak to the low > > point of > > the price pattern varies from 12 to 15% to 33%.' The depth of IGT > > cup is around > > 17%. > > > > At 07:05 AM 5/24/01 -0700, you wrote: > > >I guess we differ on what we consider to be a base. I can see > > and > > >understand the way you are looking at it. For me, the base starts > > >where you indicate the handle starts. Guess its all in the eye of > > >the beholder.. > > > > > >--- DougC wrote: > > > > I'm not sure I understand your point. I count the base of IGT > > as > > > > having a duration of 10 weeks. The left side of the cup started > > > > on 03/07. The cup 7 weeks and the handle 3 weeks. It's short > > > > but it is a base in a strongly uptrending stock with excellent > > > > numbers. And I believe it's > > > > breakout point of 57 should provide good support if tested. > > > > 60 might even be good support. And any price between 57 > > > > and 60 could provide a possible second chance entry. > > > > > > > > At 05:42 PM 5/23/01 -0700, you wrote: > > > > >Just my take on IGT (since it does have CANSLIM > > characteristics): > > > > > > > > > >If I owned it, I'd hold on. If I didn't (which I don't), I > > > > wouldn't > > > > >be a buyer. IMHO, it is pretty far removed from its last > > base. > > > > >For me, a base must be at least 6 weeks - preferably more - > > for me > > > > to > > > > >buy into the stock. Generally, if I've bought on a breakout > > of > > > > less > > > > >than 8 weeks - I've been wrong over 50% of the time. > > > > > > > > > >Just one man's opinion. > > > > > > > > > >Dave > > > > > > > > > >(p.s. In a recent IBD, Garrett VanWagoner "touted" EMLX and > > EMBT. > > > > >He looks at these as stocks that have great potential but got > > > > >severely beaten down by the tech wreck. Interestingly > > enough, > > > > these > > > > >stocks still have an RS of over 75 last time I looked despite > > > > being > > > > >way off their high. Not completely CANSLIM - but fits all > > the > > > > >characteristics except for being a good ways off the 52-week > > > > high.) > > > > > > > > > > > > > > >===== > > > > >Dave Cameron > > > > >dfcameron@yahoo.com > > > > > > > > > >__________________________________________________ > > > > >Do You Yahoo!? > > > > >Yahoo! Auctions - buy the things you want at great prices > > > > >http://auctions.yahoo.com/ > > > > > > > > > >- > > > > >-To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" > > > > >-In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > > > > >-"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. > > > > > > > > > > > > - > > > > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" > > > > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > > > > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. > > > > > > > > >===== > > >Dave Cameron > > >dfcameron@yahoo.com > > > > > >__________________________________________________ > > >Do You Yahoo!? > > >Yahoo! Auctions - buy the things you want at great prices > > >http://auctions.yahoo.com/ > > > > > >- > > >-To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" > > >-In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > > >-"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. > > > > > > - > > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" > > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. > > >===== >Dave Cameron >dfcameron@yahoo.com > >__________________________________________________ >Do You Yahoo!? >Yahoo! Auctions - buy the things you want at great prices >http://auctions.yahoo.com/ > >- >-To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" >-In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or >-"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 24 May 2001 10:27:17 -0700 (PDT) From: Dave Cameron Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] IGT Doug, Not sure. By that I mean that I read HTMMIS about 8 years ago. It turns out that I have either misunderstood WON on a number of things or had different interpretations. OTOH, I've been dead on with some others. Since then, I've re-read, but more for selling rules, which is where I have larger problems. Anyway... in this case, your definition sounds plausible. And, maybe, there's something big I'm missing here. Generally, the proportion of my buys that are C&H formations are pretty small - so its not a big issue. I'm not sure if that's because of infrequency of the formation, or just because I'm not defining it correctly. I guess its subjective in that to me - looking at IGT - at a first look, its moved up too fast - and there hasn't been enough time to digest the gains. You've got me thinking, and I could be way off on this. To your other point, though, the longer handled formations tend to work for me. Looking at some charts of stocks I've done well with, a 12-week "handle" seems ideal. Longer than that (unlike with a classic base) usually doesn't work - but then again, if the handle lasts longer than 12-weeks, there's usually no breakout. It also depends on how much the stock has advanced and how quickly. If a stock traded between 20-30 for a year, then advanced to 40-45 in two months with a C&H formation with a high of 45, and the base of the cup at 35 - then I can live with a shorter handle. OTOH, if a stock traded around 15 for a while, then advanced to 55 in 3 mos - then forms that pattern - it needs more time to digest. On IGT - its in between. It traded below 30 for quite a while, then went from 30 to 55 in 6 mos. - a good healthy growth rate. Then for about 9 or 10 weeks, digested its gains, as you've pointed out. The breakout to 60+ was on good volume. The bottom of the cup isn't at highest volume - but it wasn't too long before the bottom. As I mentioned, you are probably more in line with pure CANSLIM - but since you asked - I'm going off my experience on success/non-success. Everyone sees this a little differently. I'm not sure why the 12-week "handle" gives me my biggest successes. Does that help? Dave - --- DougC wrote: > I don't want to beat this to death but I'm just puzzled how you're > coming up with your basing definitions. If whatever they are works > for you that's fine. But I have to say I also disagree with your > definition of a handle. From what I understand of CANSLIM or WON's > or even some variations I've seen...the shorter the handle the > better > with a 1 to 2 week minimum. Personally I consider the three week > handle of IGT a little long in proportion to the base. Would have > liked > to see it no longer than 2 weeks. But it was a very tight handle > and > was using the 50dma as support so so far it's worked out. Whether > a basing pattern is c&H, or flat or double bottom is just a > desciption > of general price behavior. Bottom line is that if a stock like IGT > has > strong upward trending momentum like it had up to 03/07 then > corrects > with the market for a period of time it helps consolidate the stock > into > strong hands for further movement up through new 52 week highs. > > At 08:49 AM 5/24/01 -0700, you wrote: > >You are no doubt correct. I guess, without thinking about it, > >technically I'd want the handle to be longer. I've mentally > defined > >the base as where the cup ends and the handle starts. This seems > to > >be in conflict with how WON defines it. > > > >So... if I use WON's terminology: > >1. On a flat base I want to see at least 8 weeks. > >2. On a handle I want to see at least 6 weeks. > > > >Not to say that IGT won't work - I hope it does. But... that's > my > >take on it. > > > >Good catch, > > > >Dave > > > >--- DougC wrote: > > > You don't consider the 7 week cup starting 03/07 a base? Have > > > you read p152 of HTMMIS. 'One of the most fundamental > chart-base > > > price > > > patterns looks like a cup with a handle when the outline of a > cup > > > is viewed > > > from the side. Cup patterns last, in time duration, from 7 to > as > > > many as 65 > > > weeks. > > > The usual percentage correction from the absolute peak to the > low > > > point of > > > the price pattern varies from 12 to 15% to 33%.' The depth of > IGT > > > cup is around > > > 17%. > > > > > > At 07:05 AM 5/24/01 -0700, you wrote: > > > >I guess we differ on what we consider to be a base. I can > see > > > and > > > >understand the way you are looking at it. For me, the base > starts > > > >where you indicate the handle starts. Guess its all in the > eye of > > > >the beholder.. > > > > > > > >--- DougC wrote: > > > > > I'm not sure I understand your point. I count the base of > IGT > > > as > > > > > having a duration of 10 weeks. The left side of the cup > started > > > > > on 03/07. The cup 7 weeks and the handle 3 weeks. It's > short > > > > > but it is a base in a strongly uptrending stock with > excellent > > > > > numbers. And I believe it's > > > > > breakout point of 57 should provide good support if tested. > > > > > 60 might even be good support. And any price between 57 > > > > > and 60 could provide a possible second chance entry. > > > > > > > > > > At 05:42 PM 5/23/01 -0700, you wrote: > > > > > >Just my take on IGT (since it does have CANSLIM > > > characteristics): > > > > > > > > > > > >If I owned it, I'd hold on. If I didn't (which I don't), > I > > > > > wouldn't > > > > > >be a buyer. IMHO, it is pretty far removed from its last > > > base. > > > > > >For me, a base must be at least 6 weeks - preferably more > - > > > for me > > > > > to > > > > > >buy into the stock. Generally, if I've bought on a > breakout > > > of > > > > > less > > > > > >than 8 weeks - I've been wrong over 50% of the time. > > > > > > > > > > > >Just one man's opinion. > > > > > > > > > > > >Dave > > > > > > > > > > > >(p.s. In a recent IBD, Garrett VanWagoner "touted" EMLX > and > > > EMBT. > > > > > >He looks at these as stocks that have great potential but > got > > > > > >severely beaten down by the tech wreck. Interestingly > > > enough, > > > > > these > > > > > >stocks still have an RS of over 75 last time I looked > despite > > > > > being > > > > > >way off their high. Not completely CANSLIM - but fits > all > > > the > > > > > >characteristics except for being a good ways off the > 52-week > > > > > high.) > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > >===== > > > > > >Dave Cameron > > > > > >dfcameron@yahoo.com > > > > > > > > > > > >__________________________________________________ > > > > > >Do You Yahoo!? > > > > > >Yahoo! Auctions - buy the things you want at great prices > > > > > >http://auctions.yahoo.com/ > > > > > > > > > > > >- > > > > > >-To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" > > > > > >-In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > > > > > >-"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > - > > > > > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" > > > > > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > > > > > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. > > > > > > > > > > > >===== > > > >Dave Cameron > > > >dfcameron@yahoo.com > > > > > > > >__________________________________________________ > > > >Do You Yahoo!? > > > >Yahoo! Auctions - buy the things you want at great prices > > > >http://auctions.yahoo.com/ > > > > > > > >- > > > >-To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" > > > >-In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > > > >-"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. > > > > > > > > > - > > > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" > > > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > > > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. > > > > > >===== > >Dave Cameron > >dfcameron@yahoo.com > > > >__________________________________________________ > >Do You Yahoo!? > >Yahoo! Auctions - buy the things you want at great prices > >http://auctions.yahoo.com/ > > > >- > >-To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" > >-In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > >-"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. > > > - > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ===== Dave Cameron dfcameron@yahoo.com __________________________________________________ Do You Yahoo!? Yahoo! Auctions - buy the things you want at great prices http://auctions.yahoo.com/ - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 24 May 2001 11:43:13 -0600 From: "Patrick Wahl" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] IGT I'm not sure if you are saying you want to see a handle 6 weeks long, or the whole base including the cup and handle at 6 weeks. I also see IGT as basing since around 3/7. I cheated a little bit when looking at this chart a few weeks ago and tossed out that spike on 4/18 as a one day anamolous event. If you do that, you see a cup from 3/7 to 4/26 or so, then the handle from 4/30 to 5/15. Here is a quote from the 24 Essential Lessons For Investment Success by WON - "A proper C&H must take at least 7 or 8 weeks to form. Otherwise it may be unsound and fail after its breakout. .... Handles can short (one or two weeks), or a number of weeks long, and need to drift downward along their price lows or have a shakeout (break below a prior weeks's low price low in the handle)." On 24 May 01, at 8:49, Dave Cameron wrote: > You are no doubt correct. I guess, without thinking about it, > technically I'd want the handle to be longer. I've mentally defined > the base as where the cup ends and the handle starts. This seems to > be in conflict with how WON defines it. > > So... if I use WON's terminology: > 1. On a flat base I want to see at least 8 weeks. > 2. On a handle I want to see at least 6 weeks. > > Not to say that IGT won't work - I hope it does. But... that's my > take on it. > > Good catch, > > Dave > > --- DougC wrote: > > You don't consider the 7 week cup starting 03/07 a base? Have > > you read p152 of HTMMIS. 'One of the most fundamental chart-base > > price > > patterns looks like a cup with a handle when the outline of a cup > > is viewed > > from the side. Cup patterns last, in time duration, from 7 to as > > many as 65 > > weeks. > > The usual percentage correction from the absolute peak to the low > > point of > > the price pattern varies from 12 to 15% to 33%.' The depth of IGT > > cup is around > > 17%. > > > > At 07:05 AM 5/24/01 -0700, you wrote: > > >I guess we differ on what we consider to be a base. I can see > > and > > >understand the way you are looking at it. For me, the base starts > > >where you indicate the handle starts. Guess its all in the eye of > > >the beholder.. > > > > > >--- DougC wrote: > > > > I'm not sure I understand your point. I count the base of IGT > > as > > > > having a duration of 10 weeks. The left side of the cup started > > > > on 03/07. The cup 7 weeks and the handle 3 weeks. It's short > > > > but it is a base in a strongly uptrending stock with excellent > > > > numbers. And I believe it's > > > > breakout point of 57 should provide good support if tested. > > > > 60 might even be good support. And any price between 57 > > > > and 60 could provide a possible second chance entry. > > > > > > > > At 05:42 PM 5/23/01 -0700, you wrote: > > > > >Just my take on IGT (since it does have CANSLIM > > characteristics): > > > > > > > > > >If I owned it, I'd hold on. If I didn't (which I don't), I > > > > wouldn't > > > > >be a buyer. IMHO, it is pretty far removed from its last > > base. > > > > >For me, a base must be at least 6 weeks - preferably more - > > for me > > > > to > > > > >buy into the stock. Generally, if I've bought on a breakout > > of > > > > less > > > > >than 8 weeks - I've been wrong over 50% of the time. > > > > > > > > > >Just one man's opinion. > > > > > > > > > >Dave > > > > > > > > > >(p.s. In a recent IBD, Garrett VanWagoner "touted" EMLX and > > EMBT. > > > > >He looks at these as stocks that have great potential but got > > > > >severely beaten down by the tech wreck. Interestingly > > enough, > > > > these > > > > >stocks still have an RS of over 75 last time I looked despite > > > > being > > > > >way off their high. Not completely CANSLIM - but fits all > > the > > > > >characteristics except for being a good ways off the 52-week > > > > high.) > > > > > > > > > > > > > > >===== > > > > >Dave Cameron > > > > >dfcameron@yahoo.com > > > > > > > > > >__________________________________________________ > > > > >Do You Yahoo!? > > > > >Yahoo! Auctions - buy the things you want at great prices > > > > >http://auctions.yahoo.com/ > > > > > > > > > >- > > > > >-To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" > > > > >-In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > > > > >-"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. > > > > > > > > > > > > - > > > > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" > > > > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > > > > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. > > > > > > > > >===== > > >Dave Cameron > > >dfcameron@yahoo.com > > > > > >__________________________________________________ > > >Do You Yahoo!? > > >Yahoo! Auctions - buy the things you want at great prices > > >http://auctions.yahoo.com/ > > > > > >- > > >-To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" > > >-In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > > >-"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. > > > > > > - > > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" > > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. > > > ===== > Dave Cameron > dfcameron@yahoo.com > > __________________________________________________ > Do You Yahoo!? > Yahoo! Auctions - buy the things you want at great prices > http://auctions.yahoo.com/ > > - > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 24 May 2001 13:49:07 -0400 From: "Rick Parsons" Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] Other indicators & canslim. Too much? I have never seen a system that uses MACD or other similar indicator that has been successful in creating consistent profits. In other words, sometimes it confirms, other times it doesn't. If it make you feel more comfortable in your decisions then it is a help. But don't depend on them. Rick - -----Original Message----- From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of Bill Triffet Sent: Thursday, May 24, 2001 12:21 PM To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Other indicators & canslim. Too much? I don't disagree with you about them being important. I'm just now (after 3 years) starting to look at MACD as a secondary indicator of a breakout or sell point. I would assume a good canslim breakout should confirm those indicators and vice versa. I just wanted the newer folks to realize it is not a primary indicator for canslim. If your new, it can cloud your efforts. Perhaps a revised O'Neil book will cover these and other tools for the "new" computer age. It was only brought up because 3-4 years ago there was similar threads covering additional indicators of which I couldn't find them in WON's material. - -Bill Triffet - ----- Original Message ----- From: "Dan" To: Sent: Wednesday, May 23, 2001 10:41 PM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Other indicators & canslim. Too much? > > > Bill Triffet wrote: > > > >From time to time I see posts here refering to additional technical > > indicators. I think these are great additional tools for the advanced folks > > and those with extra time to learn to incorporate them correctly. They might > > include the MACD and Stochastic indicators as a sample. I just want to say > > that these are not covered in HTMMIS and not somthing one needs to get too > > concerned about. I'm not saying we should not discuss these tools but I felt > > It sounds like you are equating oneil's not covering them to them being > unimportant! I view a few select ones as as essential as headlights at night: > dangerous without them. > > > > > > it needed to be explained to some of the newer folks here. > > I've been following canslim for 3 years now and have found there are enough > > tools for stock selection and selling that you can keep it simple. > > > > -Bill Triffet - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 24 May 2001 13:59:21 EDT From: Spencer48@aol.com Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Re: Analyst up/downgrades Earl: If you'll notice: On its high in Feb at around 48 its RS-line also made a new high. In May when it went to 52, its RS-line rose as the stock rose from its decline and consolidation in March and April, but it didn't BO (unless you looked with a microscope). Then when it retested its May 16th high on May 22nd, the RS-line buckled a few notches lower. Because of the RS-line, then, to me the stock did not look as strong as its price rise would indicate. In my view, COCO looks as if might have made a 2nd stage base (if it stops falling); however, until its RS-line becomes resurgent, I wouldn't buy it. Also, while I believe we might be in the early stages of a bull, I want to make sure. (We don't all have Tim's fortitude). It would be nice if COCO BO at the same time I'm persuaded that the market has become a rampaging bull. In a message dated 5/24/2001 9:19:33 AM Eastern Daylight Time, esetser@covad.net writes: << This is an interesting note, but looking at DGO, COCO's RS DID hit a new high on either 5/15 or 5/16. Are you looking for the RS to stay above the previous level, or are you concerned that COCO's RS looks to have matched the previous RS on the breakout day (but it did surpass it the next trading day). >> - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 24 May 2001 14:04:44 EDT From: Spencer48@aol.com Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] COCO - beating a dead horse Earl and Tim: I agree wholeheartedly. Discipline and Conservation of Capital are the most important ingredients in succeeding in the stock market. Overanalysis and rationalization are the 2 biggest enemies. I just wish I would naturally follow the former, and ignore the siren songs of the latter. Unfortunately, I'm just not hot-wired that way. One must learn discipline to become Disciplined. In a message dated 5/24/2001 9:23:03 AM Eastern Daylight Time, esetser@covad.net writes: << As far as sell points, WON says to set your point, and sell immediately when it hits it. Period. No waitng for a recovery is allowed, no waiting for the close, etc. So I don't think there is anything inconsistent with WON in looking at prices during the day as reasons to sell. At 01:16 PM 5/23/01 -0700, you wrote: >Just a thought, but I never make decisions except for buy/don't buy based >on intraday prices. COCO closed down 5% today on less than 2x ADV. Not a >significant drop by my standards. Certainly nowhere near the 50 dma. Even >intraday, it didn't hit my 8% stop, which is good since I use hard stops, >having no other choice. But, all the analysis going on here based on an >intraday drop truly amazed me. What would WON, king of the weekly charts, >think? > >Tim Fisher >Ore-Rock-On and Pacific Fishery Biologists WWW Sites > >> - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 24 May 2001 14:14:50 EDT From: Spencer48@aol.com Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] IBD EPS Ratings ... Ian: Here is DG's defintion of EPS: EARNINGS PER SHARE (EPS) RATING: One of the five Investor's Business Daily SmartSelect=E2=84=A2 Corporate Rat= ings,=20 this is a proprietary formula that incorporates the percentage change in the= =20 last two quarters' earnings versus the same quarters a year earlier, the=20 5-year growth rate and the earnings stability. All components are separately= =20 rated and weighted. The result is compared to all stocks in the database,=20 rated with a value of 99 (highest) to 1 (lowest). An EPS Rating of 90 means=20 the company produced earnings greater than 90 percent of all companies in th= e=20 database." Also, while I agree EBMT has formed a nice pattern, it is below the 200= =20 DMA-so there will be a lot of resistance as it rises. However, looking at i= t=20 again, I think I see what you're looking at: You expect to buy a BO above=20 the 200 DMA (which is where, approximately, the right lip is). jans In a message dated 5/24/2001 10:21:37 AM Eastern Daylight Time,=20 ianstm@home.com writes: << Does anyone know how IBD comes up with their EPS ratings? Every now and=20 then they baffle me. A current case in point is EMBT. EMBT's current numbers ar= e 96 79 E A B. For the last 4 quarters, their EPS have been 0, 0.02, (0.22) and (0.01). How on earth can trailing twelve month losses of 21 cents a share garner them a 96 EPS rating? =20 (EMBT has been a short favourite of mine for many months now) =20 Ian >> - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 24 May 2001 12:17:21 -0700 From: "Ian" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] IBD EPS Ratings ... Hi jans: Thanks for the definition. I'll be honest here ... I was looking at EMBT as a short. It is mind-boggling to me that these kind of excessive valuations can still happen to companies with no real earnings and very limited markets. It is looking very toppy to me at $32 - but I don't really like to short in a strong bull trend like we're still in, so I am waffling. Ian - ----- Original Message ----- From: To: Sent: Thursday, May 24, 2001 11:14 AM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] IBD EPS Ratings ... Ian: Here is DG's defintion of EPS: EARNINGS PER SHARE (EPS) RATING: One of the five Investor's Business Daily SmartSelect™ Corporate Ratings, this is a proprietary formula that incorporates the percentage change in the last two quarters' earnings versus the same quarters a year earlier, the 5-year growth rate and the earnings stability. All components are separately rated and weighted. The result is compared to all stocks in the database, rated with a value of 99 (highest) to 1 (lowest). An EPS Rating of 90 means the company produced earnings greater than 90 percent of all companies in the database." Also, while I agree EBMT has formed a nice pattern, it is below the 200 DMA-so there will be a lot of resistance as it rises. However, looking at it again, I think I see what you're looking at: You expect to buy a BO above the 200 DMA (which is where, approximately, the right lip is). jans In a message dated 5/24/2001 10:21:37 AM Eastern Daylight Time, ianstm@home.com writes: << Does anyone know how IBD comes up with their EPS ratings? Every now and then they baffle me. A current case in point is EMBT. EMBT's current numbers are 96 79 E A B. For the last 4 quarters, their EPS have been 0, 0.02, (0.22) and (0.01). How on earth can trailing twelve month losses of 21 cents a share garner them a 96 EPS rating? (EMBT has been a short favourite of mine for many months now) Ian >> - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 24 May 2001 12:22:44 -0700 From: "Bill Triffet" Subject: [CANSLIM] ROYL - classic climax blowoff. Sold my position of ROYL. Looking back one can see a classic climax run. I should have took profits yesterday but oh well. My best one for the year. - -Bill - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 24 May 2001 13:22:06 -0600 From: DougC Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] IGT Thanks for going into more detail. Could you give an example or two of a stock with a 12 week handle as you are describing it? I agree some stocks do move up too fast, don't spend adequate time digesting gains, have further appreciation and PE expansion, get extended above 50dma then become vulnerable for a steep selloff. Present examples might be TRR and USPH. So far IGT, even with its short base, doesnt seem to be getting too far ahead of itself. It's PE is 23 wheras the other two have PE's of 48. The action of its price over the past three days I think is very constructive. At 10:27 AM 5/24/01 -0700, you wrote: >Doug, > >Not sure. By that I mean that I read HTMMIS about 8 years ago. It >turns out that I have either misunderstood WON on a number of things >or had different interpretations. OTOH, I've been dead on with some >others. Since then, I've re-read, but more for selling rules, which >is where I have larger problems. > >Anyway... in this case, your definition sounds plausible. And, >maybe, there's something big I'm missing here. Generally, the >proportion of my buys that are C&H formations are pretty small - so >its not a big issue. I'm not sure if that's because of infrequency >of the formation, or just because I'm not defining it correctly. > >I guess its subjective in that to me - looking at IGT - at a first >look, its moved up too fast - and there hasn't been enough time to >digest the gains. You've got me thinking, and I could be way off on >this. > >To your other point, though, the longer handled formations tend to >work for me. Looking at some charts of stocks I've done well with, >a 12-week "handle" seems ideal. Longer than that (unlike with a >classic base) usually doesn't work - but then again, if the handle >lasts longer than 12-weeks, there's usually no breakout. It also >depends on how much the stock has advanced and how quickly. If a >stock traded between 20-30 for a year, then advanced to 40-45 in two >months with a C&H formation with a high of 45, and the base of the >cup at 35 - then I can live with a shorter handle. OTOH, if a stock >traded around 15 for a while, then advanced to 55 in 3 mos - then >forms that pattern - it needs more time to digest. > >On IGT - its in between. It traded below 30 for quite a while, then >went from 30 to 55 in 6 mos. - a good healthy growth rate. Then for >about 9 or 10 weeks, digested its gains, as you've pointed out. The >breakout to 60+ was on good volume. The bottom of the cup isn't at >highest volume - but it wasn't too long before the bottom. > >As I mentioned, you are probably more in line with pure CANSLIM - but >since you asked - I'm going off my experience on success/non-success. > Everyone sees this a little differently. I'm not sure why the >12-week "handle" gives me my biggest successes. > > >Does that help? > >Dave > >--- DougC wrote: > > I don't want to beat this to death but I'm just puzzled how you're > > coming up with your basing definitions. If whatever they are works > > for you that's fine. But I have to say I also disagree with your > > definition of a handle. From what I understand of CANSLIM or WON's > > or even some variations I've seen...the shorter the handle the > > better > > with a 1 to 2 week minimum. Personally I consider the three week > > handle of IGT a little long in proportion to the base. Would have > > liked > > to see it no longer than 2 weeks. But it was a very tight handle > > and > > was using the 50dma as support so so far it's worked out. Whether > > a basing pattern is c&H, or flat or double bottom is just a > > desciption > > of general price behavior. Bottom line is that if a stock like IGT > > has > > strong upward trending momentum like it had up to 03/07 then > > corrects > > with the market for a period of time it helps consolidate the stock > > into > > strong hands for further movement up through new 52 week highs. > > > > At 08:49 AM 5/24/01 -0700, you wrote: > > >You are no doubt correct. I guess, without thinking about it, > > >technically I'd want the handle to be longer. I've mentally > > defined > > >the base as where the cup ends and the handle starts. This seems > > to > > >be in conflict with how WON defines it. > > > > > >So... if I use WON's terminology: > > >1. On a flat base I want to see at least 8 weeks. > > >2. On a handle I want to see at least 6 weeks. > > > > > >Not to say that IGT won't work - I hope it does. But... that's > > my > > >take on it. > > > > > >Good catch, > > > > > >Dave > > > > > >--- DougC wrote: > > > > You don't consider the 7 week cup starting 03/07 a base? Have > > > > you read p152 of HTMMIS. 'One of the most fundamental > > chart-base > > > > price > > > > patterns looks like a cup with a handle when the outline of a > > cup > > > > is viewed > > > > from the side. Cup patterns last, in time duration, from 7 to > > as > > > > many as 65 > > > > weeks. > > > > The usual percentage correction from the absolute peak to the > > low > > > > point of > > > > the price pattern varies from 12 to 15% to 33%.' The depth of > > IGT > > > > cup is around > > > > 17%. > > > > > > > > At 07:05 AM 5/24/01 -0700, you wrote: > > > > >I guess we differ on what we consider to be a base. I can > > see > > > > and > > > > >understand the way you are looking at it. For me, the base > > starts > > > > >where you indicate the handle starts. Guess its all in the > > eye of > > > > >the beholder.. > > > > > > > > > >--- DougC wrote: > > > > > > I'm not sure I understand your point. I count the base of > > IGT > > > > as > > > > > > having a duration of 10 weeks. The left side of the cup > > started > > > > > > on 03/07. The cup 7 weeks and the handle 3 weeks. It's > > short > > > > > > but it is a base in a strongly uptrending stock with > > excellent > > > > > > numbers. And I believe it's > > > > > > breakout point of 57 should provide good support if tested. > > > > > > 60 might even be good support. And any price between 57 > > > > > > and 60 could provide a possible second chance entry. > > > > > > > > > > > > At 05:42 PM 5/23/01 -0700, you wrote: > > > > > > >Just my take on IGT (since it does have CANSLIM > > > > characteristics): > > > > > > > > > > > > > >If I owned it, I'd hold on. If I didn't (which I don't), > > I > > > > > > wouldn't > > > > > > >be a buyer. IMHO, it is pretty far removed from its last > > > > base. > > > > > > >For me, a base must be at least 6 weeks - preferably more > > - > > > > for me > > > > > > to > > > > > > >buy into the stock. Generally, if I've bought on a > > breakout > > > > of > > > > > > less > > > > > > >than 8 weeks - I've been wrong over 50% of the time. > > > > > > > > > > > > > >Just one man's opinion. > > > > > > > > > > > > > >Dave > > > > > > > > > > > > > >(p.s. In a recent IBD, Garrett VanWagoner "touted" EMLX > > and > > > > EMBT. > > > > > > >He looks at these as stocks that have great potential but > > got > > > > > > >severely beaten down by the tech wreck. Interestingly > > > > enough, > > > > > > these > > > > > > >stocks still have an RS of over 75 last time I looked > > despite > > > > > > being > > > > > > >way off their high. Not completely CANSLIM - but fits > > all > > > > the > > > > > > >characteristics except for being a good ways off the > > 52-week > > > > > > high.) > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > >===== > > > > > > >Dave Cameron > > > > > > >dfcameron@yahoo.com > > > > > > > > > > > > > >__________________________________________________ > > > > > > >Do You Yahoo!? > > > > > > >Yahoo! Auctions - buy the things you want at great prices > > > > > > >http://auctions.yahoo.com/ > > > > > > > > > > > > > >- > > > > > > >-To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" > > > > > > >-In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > > > > > > >-"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > - > > > > > > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" > > > > > > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > > > > > > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > >===== > > > > >Dave Cameron > > > > >dfcameron@yahoo.com > > > > > > > > > >__________________________________________________ > > > > >Do You Yahoo!? > > > > >Yahoo! Auctions - buy the things you want at great prices > > > > >http://auctions.yahoo.com/ > > > > > > > > > >- > > > > >-To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" > > > > >-In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > > > > >-"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. > > > > > > > > > > > > - > > > > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" > > > > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > > > > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. > > > > > > > > >===== > > >Dave Cameron > > >dfcameron@yahoo.com > > > > > >__________________________________________________ > > >Do You Yahoo!? > > >Yahoo! Auctions - buy the things you want at great prices > > >http://auctions.yahoo.com/ > > > > > >- > > >-To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" > > >-In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > > >-"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. > > > > > > - > > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" > > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. > > >===== >Dave Cameron >dfcameron@yahoo.com > >__________________________________________________ >Do You Yahoo!? >Yahoo! Auctions - buy the things you want at great prices >http://auctions.yahoo.com/ > >- >-To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" >-In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or >-"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ End of canslim-digest V2 #1399 ****************************** To unsubscribe to canslim-digest, send an email to "majordomo@xmission.com" with "unsubscribe canslim-digest" in the body of the message. For information on digests or retrieving files and old messages send "help" to the same address. Do not use quotes in your message.