From: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com (canslim-digest) To: canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Subject: canslim-digest V2 #1507 Reply-To: canslim Sender: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Errors-To: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Precedence: bulk Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable X-No-Archive: yes canslim-digest Monday, June 18 2001 Volume 02 : Number 1507 In this issue: Re: [CANSLIM] update RECN Re: [CANSLIM] PSTA Re: [CANSLIM] ACRT/BEIQ/ATRO Re: [CANSLIM] 2000 vs. 2001/slumps/intermediate trends [CANSLIM] Re: Welcome to Neal Re: [CANSLIM] update RECN Re: [CANSLIM] ACRT/BEIQ/ATRO Re: [CANSLIM] 2000 vs. 2001/slumps/intermediate trends Re: [CANSLIM] Re: Welcome to Neal ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Date: Mon, 18 Jun 2001 20:54:37 -0400 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] update RECN I would like to suggest that further discussion of the Gann lines be moved to the TI_CANSLIM discussion group. I am really having trouble seeing how a stock which has declined 11 of the past 14 days, and losing over 15% of value in the meantime, can be described as in an "intermediate up-trend". Nor, without nearby support, I see little reason to trust that it will hold here on a ten cent gain after losing well over a dollar on several of those down days. I will acknowledge up front that there are a lot of CANSLIM qualities which make this stock worth keeping an eye on, but not enough to overcome a pretty ugly chart in terms of any entry any time soon. Certainly not by CANSLIM standards. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net AIM: TexWorley - ----- Original Message ----- From: ernieh To: Sent: Monday, June 18, 2001 8:36 PM Subject: [CANSLIM] update RECN RECN dropped to a low of 27.15 today an exact touch of the 1x1 line. It then rallied late in the day to finish at 28.05 up .10 for the day. That was a nice bounce from the 1x1 line especially on a down day for the NASDAQ like today. It "should" begin to rally from here. Also found out that managment does indeed control 68% of the outstanding shares of stock. 14 million of these shares were unlocked on 6-12-01. I am not too excited about this development, but I do believe the intermediate up-trend will hold for the time being. Although these shares have been unlocked they probabaly will not be able to sell them until after the quarterly results are announced, which is scheduled for 7-2-01. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 18 Jun 2001 20:57:15 -0400 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] PSTA This is a multi-part message in MIME format. - ------=_NextPart_000_00A7_01C0F839.414D8E80 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable Well said, Gene. Guess I can get excited about a hot KK glazed right off = the rack, where pasta is still pasta to me. Maybe reality sets in a little faster for me with pasta. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net AIM: TexWorley ----- Original Message -----=20 From: Gene Ricci=20 To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20 Sent: Monday, June 18, 2001 8:45 PM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] PSTA kinda like Krispy Kreme.... dough with sugar on it is still dough with = sugar on it....... ----- Original Message -----=20 From: Tom Worley=20 To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20 Sent: Monday, June 18, 2001 7:42 PM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] PSTA It keeps popping up on my small cap radar screen, but just can't get = that excited about pasta. It's not a brand I buy, or even see in the = grocery store. And as a non-discerning eater of pasta, I go to the stock = market to buy technology, I go to the grocery store to buy whatever = pasta is best priced (usually Muellers). I never understood all the hoopla about pasta, pasta is pasta, like = coffee is still colored and flavored water you rent. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net AIM: TexWorley ----- Original Message -----=20 From: Hotmail-Canslim=20 To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20 Sent: Monday, June 18, 2001 3:14 PM Subject: [CANSLIM] PSTA Hello all, What does anyone think of PSTA? Thanks, SL - ------=_NextPart_000_00A7_01C0F839.414D8E80 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
Well said, Gene. Guess I can get excited about a hot = KK glazed=20 right off the rack, where pasta is still pasta to me.
 
Maybe reality sets in a little faster for me with=20 pasta.
 
Tom Worley
stkguru@netside.net
AIM:=20 TexWorley
----- Original Message -----
From:=20 Gene = Ricci
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com =
Sent: Monday, June 18, 2001 = 8:45 PM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] = PSTA

kinda like Krispy Kreme.... dough = with sugar=20 on it is still dough with sugar on it.......
----- Original Message -----
From:=20 Tom=20 Worley
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com =
Sent: Monday, June 18, 2001 = 7:42=20 PM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] = PSTA

It keeps popping up on my small cap radar = screen, but just=20 can't get that excited about pasta. It's not a brand I buy, or even = see in=20 the grocery store. And as a non-discerning eater of pasta, I go to = the stock=20 market to buy technology, I go to the grocery store to buy whatever = pasta is=20 best priced (usually Muellers).
 
I never understood all the hoopla about pasta, = pasta is=20 pasta, like coffee is still colored and flavored water you=20 rent.
 
Tom Worley
stkguru@netside.net
AIM:=20 TexWorley
----- Original Message ----- =
From:=20 Hotmail-Canslim
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com =
Sent: Monday, June 18, 2001 = 3:14=20 PM
Subject: [CANSLIM] = PSTA

Hello all,
 
What does anyone think of PSTA?
 
Thanks,
 
SL
- ------=_NextPart_000_00A7_01C0F839.414D8E80-- - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 18 Jun 2001 18:26:41 -0700 (PDT) From: Dave Cameron Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] ACRT/BEIQ/ATRO Ernie, How are you defining a low risk entry point for BEIQ? Dave - --- ernieh wrote: > I love BEIQ and ACRT I have been looking for good low risk entry > points on these two for awhile. It still hasn't materialized. These > two are good examples why even with strong fundamentals you have to > wait for the low risk entry points to develope on the chart > patterns. > > Looks like ACRT may provide us with an opportunity soon. The > current sell-off has been sparked by the liquidation of Amwest and > their default on payments to ACRT. They are going to take a charge > against earnings, but this should have no effect on their continued > growth. The long term uptrend 1x1 line support is between 23 & 24. > It will be interesting to see if it holds and what the price > structure looks like if it does. > > I will keep you posted. > > ---------- Original Message ---------------------------------- > From: Dave Cameron > Reply-To: canslim@lists.xmission.com > Date: Mon, 18 Jun 2001 14:28:13 -0700 (PDT) > > >For these three stocks, this really hits home the idea - set your > >stops well. As much as I whine about all my losses - as an > example, > >if you bought BEIQ on the breakout and hadn't cut your losses - > you'd > >be down 30% right now in about a week. > > > >--- Ian wrote: > >> Someone told me the last 8-straight-day decline was in 1994. > ACRT, > >> BEIQ and > >> ATRO have all had stunning declines. Amazing to watch ... > >> > >> > >> Ian > >> > >> > >> ----- Original Message ----- > >> From: Nicholas Barone > >> To: > >> Sent: Monday, June 18, 2001 12:52 PM > >> Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] NASDAQ > >> > >> > >> > Seven Days Down > >> > > >> > There should be as law. > >> > > >> > NB > >> > > _________________________________________________________________ > >> > Get your FREE download of MSN Explorer at > http://explorer.msn.com > >> > > >> > > >> > - > >> > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" > >> > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > >> > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. > >> > >> > >> - > >> -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" > >> -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > >> -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. > > > > > >===== > >Dave Cameron > >dfcameron@yahoo.com > > > >__________________________________________________ > >Do You Yahoo!? > >Spot the hottest trends in music, movies, and more. > >http://buzz.yahoo.com/ > > > >- > >-To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" > >-In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > >-"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. > > > > > - > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ===== Dave Cameron dfcameron@yahoo.com __________________________________________________ Do You Yahoo!? Spot the hottest trends in music, movies, and more. http://buzz.yahoo.com/ - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 18 Jun 2001 18:28:13 -0700 (PDT) From: Dave Cameron Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] 2000 vs. 2001/slumps/intermediate trends Tom, I'm just putting it in context of previous rate cuts spurring the averages on. Right now, the market doesn't believe there have been enough cuts. Hence, we still need more - or we could be in a bear for a while. Dave - --- Tom Worley wrote: > Don't bet the farm on it, Dave, I still expect 25 basis points. > 50 BP is still a possibility, but I would be stunned at anything > more than that, and even surprised if we got 50. > > Tom Worley > stkguru@netside.net > AIM: TexWorley > > ----- Original Message ----- > From: Dave Cameron > To: > Sent: Monday, June 18, 2001 5:19 PM > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] 2000 vs. 2001/slumps/intermediate trends > > > Dick, > > Welcome to the club! > > Actually... in my case, I thought about the "want" you indicated. > I > think that for me, its been more a matter of "hey, the Fed has > lowered rates several times - that almost always means that > stocks > are going up soon.". Apparently there needs to be some serious > easing this time. > > Dave > > --- Dick Wilkinson wrote: > > Dave an Earl, > > > > I also was up last year (9%), and down this year > > (9%). I don't feel this is a rare occurrence. > > Last year, I seemed to be more open to changes in > > rotation while I've been caught flatfooted in > > 2001. Also, I've been more emotional about the market > > this year-I have "wanted" the maket to rise so I could > > make money fast. That desire always clouds my > > thinking. > > > > Dick > > > > --- Dave Cameron wrote: > > > > > > > > > Earl: That's a good point. There are at least 3 > > > of us (you, me, > > > and Jay) who actually made money in 2000 - but have > > > lost money to > > > date in 2001. That is probably a rare feat. > > > Perhaps it says > > > something to our method or psyche which is different > > > than the crowd. > > > > > > For all: I was reading an article by Vic Sperandeo > > > last night. It > > > is quite possible that we are in the first > > > intermediate downtrend in > > > a long term uptrend. Sperandeo defines the short > > > term as days to a > > > week or two. Intermediate trend seems to be about > > > 3 weeks to 13 > > > weeks. Long term seems to be generally over 13 > > > weeks to a few > > > years. Anyway, Sperandeo says that after we've had > > > a bear market - > > > when a bull market commences, there will often be > > > about a 20% advance > > > followed by an intermediate term retracement that > > > won't go all the > > > way back down. This could be caused by those > > > figuring they are back > > > to even from the last bear market, or by taking some > > > quick profits, > > > or just figuring they have enough made to offset > > > their last losses. > > > > > > As far as failed breakouts, that is common in this > > > sort of "starting > > > bull" followed by "retrenchment". Remember that > > > most investors sell > > > their best stocks, not their worst. As such, > > > people may see a > > > breakout on their best stocks and sell to preserve a > > > small profit. > > > The key is watching to see if these stocks pop back > > > out of the base. > > > LNCR is a good example which based under 59.5 It > > > broke out on big > > > volume, stayed above 59.5 for several days until > > > crashing back into > > > the base - hitting the high 57s, but closed back > > > above 59.5 Right > > > now it is back into the low 60s. > > > > > > Dave > > > > > > --- esetser wrote: > > > > Well, thanks for the encouragement all Dave. I > > > must say, as lousy > > > > as my > > > > year has been, I haven't hit the -20% mark yet. > > > (I think I'm about > > > > -14% > > > > at last count). It seems strange, but there are > > > several of us here > > > > that > > > > did make money in 2000 that seem to be leading the > > > rear of the pack > > > > for > > > > 2001??? Hmmm. > > > > > > > > Dave Cameron wrote: > > > > > > > > > Jay, > > > > > > > > > > FWIW - I am too. I have tried to get back in > > > the market several > > > > > times - and each time, I keep getting burned. > > > Actually, I made > > > > > money in calendar year 2000 - despite the big > > > drop in the Nasdaq. > > > > > This year, I'm already down 20%. > > > > > > > > > > My advice is to do more or less what you are > > > saying: > > > > > 1. Sit out for a while. > > > > > 2. Analyze your trades. > > > > > 3. When you get back in, trade very small. > > > The trades you > > > > > make should seem almost like not worth > > > doing because > > > > > of their size. > > > > > > > > > > Now, realize that I believe this is the best > > > thing to do - but it > > > > > hasn't worked for me as well as I'd like. In > > > my case, first > > > > thing I > > > > > did was get in too early - and get stopped out > > > because of M. > > > > Since > > > > > I had several quick losses - I stopped for a > > > while. Of course, > > > > just > > > > > when I stopped is when the market started to > > > recover. Recently, > > > > I > > > > > finally got convinced we were in a good market > > > for CANSLIM, and > > > > > started buying again. I've been stopped out of > > > all but one > > > > trade > > > > > this past week. When 4 out of 5 get stopped > > > out in one day - it > > > > can > > > > > be demoralizing. > > > > > > > > > > What's hard - is hearing O'Neil's voice saying - > > > "if you cut your > > > > > losses religiously, eventually you'll make a big > > > enough profit to > > > > > offset" - when you're in the middle of the > > > losses. Right now, > > > > I've > > > > > cut my losses religiously, but when one has 6 > > > straight 7% losses > > > > on > > > > > average - that dropped my account value by 12%. > > > > > > > > > > So... anyway you're not alone - and I'm giving > > > you the advice > > > > that I > > > > > believe is best, and I am employing now. > > > > > > > > > > Dave > > > > > --- Jay Oken wrote: > > > > > > What do people do when they are in a slump? It > > > seems that > > > > almost > > > > > > every buy I have made the past couple of > > > months has gone wrong. > > > > I > > > > > > know the market doesn't know who you are but I > > > get the feeling > > > > that > > > > > > when I buy, the stock goes down and when I > > > sell it goes up. I > > > > > > intend to sit out the market for a while and > > > analyze my most > > > > recent > > > > > > trades. (in light of that I sold 4 of my 5 > > > stocks yesterday. > > > > Today > > > > > > all 4 went up while the one I held went down > > > 10%). Last year I > > > > was > > > > > > up 14% in a down market but this year has been > > > very rough and > > > > now > === message truncated === ===== Dave Cameron dfcameron@yahoo.com __________________________________________________ Do You Yahoo!? Spot the hottest trends in music, movies, and more. http://buzz.yahoo.com/ - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 18 Jun 2001 20:42:02 -0500 From: "Patti Curry" Subject: [CANSLIM] Re: Welcome to Neal Welcome, Neal! Nice you have you in the group. Tom, I think some of us got off on the wrong foot with Bill Stanton because his intro included an advertisement and then he was slow to answer questions posed to him. It gave the appearance that we would never hear from him again. This was our mistake and I know I won't be so quick to judge in future. All the best, Patti - ----- Original Message ----- From: "Tom Worley" To: Sent: Monday, June 18, 2001 7:13 PM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] new to group > Hi Neal, and welcome to the group. I am always glad to see a > financial professional here in the group so I have some company > understanding, and explaining, some of the mechanics of how the > system really works. > > Now, group, don't bash him. He's admitted he's a professional, > and also told you he also is not having a great year. But he's > here as a real person, so treat him accordingly, much as all of > you have treated me over the years. > > Tom Worley > stkguru@netside.net > AIM: TexWorley > - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 18 Jun 2001 20:43:56 -0500 From: "ernieh" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] update RECN Tom, I will be the first to admit that trading from the Gann support lines are n= ot a part of WON=92s texts. However, in my intro I mentioned that some of m= y favorite patterns to trade were from Gann lines. Others in the group had = asked me some questions about them, and I responded. I felt the best way to= explain it would be to give real life examples. Thus my posts. If there is no interest in the group for me to continue, or if there is sig= nificant negative feed back I will certainly cease and desist. I really would like to submit to the group a nice potential cup and handle = trade, but currently I don=92t see any I like. Even though the technicals of the Gann line trades are not a part of WON= =92s texts; I still consider them to be canslim. Because that=92s what make= s these trades work. There is every fundamental reason for the stock to go = up. The Gann lines act as a support level and often the price will rebound = and go on to make new highs. As for the intermediate up-trend still being intact, until the major suppor= t level of $24 is taken out technically the up-trend is still intact. The TI_CANSLIM discussion group what is the focus of this group and how do = I join. E - ---------- Original Message ---------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Reply-To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Date: Mon, 18 Jun 2001 20:54:37 -0400 >I would like to suggest that further discussion of the Gann lines >be moved to the TI_CANSLIM discussion group. I am really having >trouble seeing how a stock which has declined 11 of the past 14 >days, and losing over 15% of value in the meantime, can be >described as in an "intermediate up-trend". Nor, without nearby >support, I see little reason to trust that it will hold here on a >ten cent gain after losing well over a dollar on several of those >down days. > >I will acknowledge up front that there are a lot of CANSLIM >qualities which make this stock worth keeping an eye on, but not >enough to overcome a pretty ugly chart in terms of any entry any >time soon. Certainly not by CANSLIM standards. > >Tom Worley >stkguru@netside.net >AIM: TexWorley > >----- Original Message ----- >From: ernieh >To: >Sent: Monday, June 18, 2001 8:36 PM >Subject: [CANSLIM] update RECN > > >RECN dropped to a low of 27.15 today an exact touch of the 1x1 >line. It then rallied late in the day to finish at 28.05 up .10 >for the day. That was a nice bounce from the 1x1 line especially >on a down day for the NASDAQ like today. It "should" begin to >rally from here. > >Also found out that managment does indeed control 68% of the >outstanding shares of stock. 14 million of these shares were >unlocked on 6-12-01. I am not too excited about this development, >but I do believe the intermediate up-trend will hold for the time >being. Although these shares have been unlocked they probabaly >will not be able to sell them until after the quarterly results >are announced, which is scheduled for 7-2-01. > >- >-To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" >-In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or >-"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. > > > >- >-To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" >-In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or >-"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. > - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 18 Jun 2001 20:46:02 -0500 From: "ernieh" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] ACRT/BEIQ/ATRO I don't see one shaping up at this time for BEIQ, But ACRT has a chance we will just have to wait and see. - ---------- Original Message ---------------------------------- From: Dave Cameron Reply-To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Date: Mon, 18 Jun 2001 18:26:41 -0700 (PDT) >Ernie, > >How are you defining a low risk entry point for BEIQ? > >Dave > >--- ernieh wrote: >> I love BEIQ and ACRT I have been looking for good low risk entry >> points on these two for awhile. It still hasn't materialized. These >> two are good examples why even with strong fundamentals you have to >> wait for the low risk entry points to develope on the chart >> patterns. >> >> Looks like ACRT may provide us with an opportunity soon. The >> current sell-off has been sparked by the liquidation of Amwest and >> their default on payments to ACRT. They are going to take a charge >> against earnings, but this should have no effect on their continued >> growth. The long term uptrend 1x1 line support is between 23 & 24. >> It will be interesting to see if it holds and what the price >> structure looks like if it does. >> >> I will keep you posted. >> >> ---------- Original Message ---------------------------------- >> From: Dave Cameron >> Reply-To: canslim@lists.xmission.com >> Date: Mon, 18 Jun 2001 14:28:13 -0700 (PDT) >> >> >For these three stocks, this really hits home the idea - set your >> >stops well. As much as I whine about all my losses - as an >> example, >> >if you bought BEIQ on the breakout and hadn't cut your losses - >> you'd >> >be down 30% right now in about a week. >> > >> >--- Ian wrote: >> >> Someone told me the last 8-straight-day decline was in 1994. >> ACRT, >> >> BEIQ and >> >> ATRO have all had stunning declines. Amazing to watch ... >> >> >> >> >> >> Ian >> >> >> >> >> >> ----- Original Message ----- >> >> From: Nicholas Barone >> >> To: >> >> Sent: Monday, June 18, 2001 12:52 PM >> >> Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] NASDAQ >> >> >> >> >> >> > Seven Days Down >> >> > >> >> > There should be as law. >> >> > >> >> > NB >> >> > >> _________________________________________________________________ >> >> > Get your FREE download of MSN Explorer at >> http://explorer.msn.com >> >> > >> >> > >> >> > - >> >> > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" >> >> > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or >> >> > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. >> >> >> >> >> >> - >> >> -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" >> >> -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or >> >> -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. >> > >> > >> >===== >> >Dave Cameron >> >dfcameron@yahoo.com >> > >> >__________________________________________________ >> >Do You Yahoo!? >> >Spot the hottest trends in music, movies, and more. >> >http://buzz.yahoo.com/ >> > >> >- >> >-To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" >> >-In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or >> >-"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. >> > >> >> >> - >> -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" >> -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or >> -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. > > >===== >Dave Cameron >dfcameron@yahoo.com > >__________________________________________________ >Do You Yahoo!? >Spot the hottest trends in music, movies, and more. >http://buzz.yahoo.com/ > >- >-To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" >-In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or >-"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. > - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 18 Jun 2001 21:42:51 -0400 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] 2000 vs. 2001/slumps/intermediate trends Oh, I do believe the market wants more rate cuts, it is searching for a solution to what will make earnings suddenly accelerate into a clear recovery. But rate cuts take a long time (roughly 6 months) to be fully factored in, and if you look at how the market has responded to the last five half point cuts, it is not a pretty track record. So even another half point on 6/27 is not the solution. And Mr. G prefers to surprise. Right now the opinions seem torn between a qtr pt and a half pt, with a bias to the half pt in the past 1-2 weeks. He too wants to keep his powder dry, and save something in reserve. So I figure a qtr pt is well over a 50-50 likelihood, and a half pt is well under a 50-50 shot. Won't excite the market, won't drastically undercut the market. It buys him time for the early cuts to finally start making a difference, just about the time that the tax rebate checks start arriving in the mail. With luck and some good timing, it may be the last cut he has to make, and may prevent some premature rate hikes. Mr. G, and the rest of FOMC, is already looking into first quarter year 2002 for their expectations. The market is most immediately focused on results for second qtr this year, and with some expectations of what third and fourth quarter will bring for earnings results. There's a dichotomy there that will keep the expectations of the interested parties swinging back and forth, one focused on economics, and one focused on short term earnings results. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net AIM: TexWorley - ----- Original Message ----- From: Dave Cameron To: Sent: Monday, June 18, 2001 9:28 PM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] 2000 vs. 2001/slumps/intermediate trends Tom, I'm just putting it in context of previous rate cuts spurring the averages on. Right now, the market doesn't believe there have been enough cuts. Hence, we still need more - or we could be in a bear for a while. Dave - --- Tom Worley wrote: > Don't bet the farm on it, Dave, I still expect 25 basis points. > 50 BP is still a possibility, but I would be stunned at anything > more than that, and even surprised if we got 50. > > Tom Worley > stkguru@netside.net > AIM: TexWorley > > ----- Original Message ----- > From: Dave Cameron > To: > Sent: Monday, June 18, 2001 5:19 PM > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] 2000 vs. 2001/slumps/intermediate trends > > > Dick, > > Welcome to the club! > > Actually... in my case, I thought about the "want" you indicated. > I > think that for me, its been more a matter of "hey, the Fed has > lowered rates several times - that almost always means that > stocks > are going up soon.". Apparently there needs to be some serious > easing this time. > > Dave > > --- Dick Wilkinson wrote: > > Dave an Earl, > > > > I also was up last year (9%), and down this year > > (9%). I don't feel this is a rare occurrence. > > Last year, I seemed to be more open to changes in > > rotation while I've been caught flatfooted in > > 2001. Also, I've been more emotional about the market > > this year-I have "wanted" the maket to rise so I could > > make money fast. That desire always clouds my > > thinking. > > > > Dick > > > > --- Dave Cameron wrote: > > > > > > > > > Earl: That's a good point. There are at least 3 > > > of us (you, me, > > > and Jay) who actually made money in 2000 - but have > > > lost money to > > > date in 2001. That is probably a rare feat. > > > Perhaps it says > > > something to our method or psyche which is different > > > than the crowd. > > > > > > For all: I was reading an article by Vic Sperandeo > > > last night. It > > > is quite possible that we are in the first > > > intermediate downtrend in > > > a long term uptrend. Sperandeo defines the short > > > term as days to a > > > week or two. Intermediate trend seems to be about > > > 3 weeks to 13 > > > weeks. Long term seems to be generally over 13 > > > weeks to a few > > > years. Anyway, Sperandeo says that after we've had > > > a bear market - > > > when a bull market commences, there will often be > > > about a 20% advance > > > followed by an intermediate term retracement that > > > won't go all the > > > way back down. This could be caused by those > > > figuring they are back > > > to even from the last bear market, or by taking some > > > quick profits, > > > or just figuring they have enough made to offset > > > their last losses. > > > > > > As far as failed breakouts, that is common in this > > > sort of "starting > > > bull" followed by "retrenchment". Remember that > > > most investors sell > > > their best stocks, not their worst. As such, > > > people may see a > > > breakout on their best stocks and sell to preserve a > > > small profit. > > > The key is watching to see if these stocks pop back > > > out of the base. > > > LNCR is a good example which based under 59.5 It > > > broke out on big > > > volume, stayed above 59.5 for several days until > > > crashing back into > > > the base - hitting the high 57s, but closed back > > > above 59.5 Right > > > now it is back into the low 60s. > > > > > > Dave > > > > > > --- esetser wrote: > > > > Well, thanks for the encouragement all Dave. I > > > must say, as lousy > > > > as my > > > > year has been, I haven't hit the -20% mark yet. > > > (I think I'm about > > > > -14% > > > > at last count). It seems strange, but there are > > > several of us here > > > > that > > > > did make money in 2000 that seem to be leading the > > > rear of the pack > > > > for > > > > 2001??? Hmmm. > > > > > > > > Dave Cameron wrote: > > > > > > > > > Jay, > > > > > > > > > > FWIW - I am too. I have tried to get back in > > > the market several > > > > > times - and each time, I keep getting burned. > > > Actually, I made > > > > > money in calendar year 2000 - despite the big > > > drop in the Nasdaq. > > > > > This year, I'm already down 20%. > > > > > > > > > > My advice is to do more or less what you are > > > saying: > > > > > 1. Sit out for a while. > > > > > 2. Analyze your trades. > > > > > 3. When you get back in, trade very small. > > > The trades you > > > > > make should seem almost like not worth > > > doing because > > > > > of their size. > > > > > > > > > > Now, realize that I believe this is the best > > > thing to do - but it > > > > > hasn't worked for me as well as I'd like. In > > > my case, first > > > > thing I > > > > > did was get in too early - and get stopped out > > > because of M. > > > > Since > > > > > I had several quick losses - I stopped for a > > > while. Of course, > > > > just > > > > > when I stopped is when the market started to > > > recover. Recently, > > > > I > > > > > finally got convinced we were in a good market > > > for CANSLIM, and > > > > > started buying again. I've been stopped out of > > > all but one > > > > trade > > > > > this past week. When 4 out of 5 get stopped > > > out in one day - it > > > > can > > > > > be demoralizing. > > > > > > > > > > What's hard - is hearing O'Neil's voice saying - > > > "if you cut your > > > > > losses religiously, eventually you'll make a big > > > enough profit to > > > > > offset" - when you're in the middle of the > > > losses. Right now, > > > > I've > > > > > cut my losses religiously, but when one has 6 > > > straight 7% losses > > > > on > > > > > average - that dropped my account value by 12%. > > > > > > > > > > So... anyway you're not alone - and I'm giving > > > you the advice > > > > that I > > > > > believe is best, and I am employing now. > > > > > > > > > > Dave > > > > > --- Jay Oken wrote: > > > > > > What do people do when they are in a slump? It > > > seems that > > > > almost > > > > > > every buy I have made the past couple of > > > months has gone wrong. > > > > I > > > > > > know the market doesn't know who you are but I > > > get the feeling > > > > that > > > > > > when I buy, the stock goes down and when I > > > sell it goes up. I > > > > > > intend to sit out the market for a while and > > > analyze my most > > > > recent > > > > > > trades. (in light of that I sold 4 of my 5 > > > stocks yesterday. > > > > Today > > > > > > all 4 went up while the one I held went down > > > 10%). Last year I > > > > was > > > > > > up 14% in a down market but this year has been > > > very rough and > > > > now > === message truncated === ===== Dave Cameron dfcameron@yahoo.com __________________________________________________ Do You Yahoo!? Spot the hottest trends in music, movies, and more. http://buzz.yahoo.com/ - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 18 Jun 2001 21:46:12 -0400 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Re: Welcome to Neal Thanks, Patti, it's easy to lose sight of the fact that we are all individuals here, and behave (and post) differently. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net AIM: TexWorley - ----- Original Message ----- From: Patti Curry To: Sent: Monday, June 18, 2001 9:42 PM Subject: [CANSLIM] Re: Welcome to Neal Welcome, Neal! Nice you have you in the group. Tom, I think some of us got off on the wrong foot with Bill Stanton because his intro included an advertisement and then he was slow to answer questions posed to him. It gave the appearance that we would never hear from him again. This was our mistake and I know I won't be so quick to judge in future. All the best, Patti - ----- Original Message ----- From: "Tom Worley" To: Sent: Monday, June 18, 2001 7:13 PM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] new to group > Hi Neal, and welcome to the group. I am always glad to see a > financial professional here in the group so I have some company > understanding, and explaining, some of the mechanics of how the > system really works. > > Now, group, don't bash him. He's admitted he's a professional, > and also told you he also is not having a great year. But he's > here as a real person, so treat him accordingly, much as all of > you have treated me over the years. > > Tom Worley > stkguru@netside.net > AIM: TexWorley - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ End of canslim-digest V2 #1507 ****************************** To unsubscribe to canslim-digest, send an email to "majordomo@xmission.com" with "unsubscribe canslim-digest" in the body of the message. For information on digests or retrieving files and old messages send "help" to the same address. Do not use quotes in your message.