From: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com (canslim-digest) To: canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Subject: canslim-digest V2 #1509 Reply-To: canslim Sender: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Errors-To: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Precedence: bulk Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable X-No-Archive: yes canslim-digest Monday, June 18 2001 Volume 02 : Number 1509 In this issue: Re: [CANSLIM] 2000 vs. 2001/slumps/intermediate trends Re: [CANSLIM] canslim.net Breakout Strategy ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Date: Mon, 18 Jun 2001 22:05:22 -0400 From: "Dan Forant" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] 2000 vs. 2001/slumps/intermediate trends It does take time to channel the rate cuts into the economy. I think another underlying problem is the present administration doesn't have the guns right now in the Senate to push an aggressive agenda. Energy and Social Security I believe were going to move the markets up. But now with the weak kneed Republican leadership things are getting stagnant again. DanF - ----- Original Message ----- From: "Tom Worley" To: Sent: Monday, June 18, 2001 9:42 PM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] 2000 vs. 2001/slumps/intermediate trends > Oh, I do believe the market wants more rate cuts, it is searching > for a solution to what will make earnings suddenly accelerate > into a clear recovery. But rate cuts take a long time (roughly 6 > months) to be fully factored in, and if you look at how the > market has responded to the last five half point cuts, it is not > a pretty track record. So even another half point on 6/27 is not > the solution. > > And Mr. G prefers to surprise. Right now the opinions seem torn > between a qtr pt and a half pt, with a bias to the half pt in the > past 1-2 weeks. He too wants to keep his powder dry, and save > something in reserve. So I figure a qtr pt is well over a 50-50 > likelihood, and a half pt is well under a 50-50 shot. Won't > excite the market, won't drastically undercut the market. It buys > him time for the early cuts to finally start making a difference, > just about the time that the tax rebate checks start arriving in > the mail. With luck and some good timing, it may be the last cut > he has to make, and may prevent some premature rate hikes. > > Mr. G, and the rest of FOMC, is already looking into first > quarter year 2002 for their expectations. The market is most > immediately focused on results for second qtr this year, and with > some expectations of what third and fourth quarter will bring for > earnings results. There's a dichotomy there that will keep the > expectations of the interested parties swinging back and forth, > one focused on economics, and one focused on short term earnings > results. > > Tom Worley > stkguru@netside.net > AIM: TexWorley > > ----- Original Message ----- > From: Dave Cameron > To: > Sent: Monday, June 18, 2001 9:28 PM > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] 2000 vs. 2001/slumps/intermediate trends > > > Tom, > > I'm just putting it in context of previous rate cuts spurring the > averages on. Right now, the market doesn't believe there have > been > enough cuts. Hence, we still need more - or we could be in a > bear > for a while. > > Dave > > --- Tom Worley wrote: > > Don't bet the farm on it, Dave, I still expect 25 basis points. > > 50 BP is still a possibility, but I would be stunned at > anything > > more than that, and even surprised if we got 50. > > > > Tom Worley > > stkguru@netside.net > > AIM: TexWorley > > > > ----- Original Message ----- > > From: Dave Cameron > > To: > > Sent: Monday, June 18, 2001 5:19 PM > > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] 2000 vs. 2001/slumps/intermediate trends > > > > > > Dick, > > > > Welcome to the club! > > > > Actually... in my case, I thought about the "want" you > indicated. > > I > > think that for me, its been more a matter of "hey, the Fed has > > lowered rates several times - that almost always means that > > stocks > > are going up soon.". Apparently there needs to be some > serious > > easing this time. > > > > Dave > > > > --- Dick Wilkinson wrote: > > > Dave an Earl, > > > > > > I also was up last year (9%), and down this year > > > (9%). I don't feel this is a rare occurrence. > > > Last year, I seemed to be more open to changes in > > > rotation while I've been caught flatfooted in > > > 2001. Also, I've been more emotional about the market > > > this year-I have "wanted" the maket to rise so I could > > > make money fast. That desire always clouds my > > > thinking. > > > > > > Dick > > > > > > --- Dave Cameron wrote: > > > > > > > > > > > > Earl: That's a good point. There are at least 3 > > > > of us (you, me, > > > > and Jay) who actually made money in 2000 - but have > > > > lost money to > > > > date in 2001. That is probably a rare feat. > > > > Perhaps it says > > > > something to our method or psyche which is different > > > > than the crowd. > > > > > > > > For all: I was reading an article by Vic Sperandeo > > > > last night. It > > > > is quite possible that we are in the first > > > > intermediate downtrend in > > > > a long term uptrend. Sperandeo defines the short > > > > term as days to a > > > > week or two. Intermediate trend seems to be about > > > > 3 weeks to 13 > > > > weeks. Long term seems to be generally over 13 > > > > weeks to a few > > > > years. Anyway, Sperandeo says that after we've had > > > > a bear market - > > > > when a bull market commences, there will often be > > > > about a 20% advance > > > > followed by an intermediate term retracement that > > > > won't go all the > > > > way back down. This could be caused by those > > > > figuring they are back > > > > to even from the last bear market, or by taking some > > > > quick profits, > > > > or just figuring they have enough made to offset > > > > their last losses. > > > > > > > > As far as failed breakouts, that is common in this > > > > sort of "starting > > > > bull" followed by "retrenchment". Remember that > > > > most investors sell > > > > their best stocks, not their worst. As such, > > > > people may see a > > > > breakout on their best stocks and sell to preserve a > > > > small profit. > > > > The key is watching to see if these stocks pop back > > > > out of the base. > > > > LNCR is a good example which based under 59.5 It > > > > broke out on big > > > > volume, stayed above 59.5 for several days until > > > > crashing back into > > > > the base - hitting the high 57s, but closed back > > > > above 59.5 Right > > > > now it is back into the low 60s. > > > > > > > > Dave > > > > > > > > --- esetser wrote: > > > > > Well, thanks for the encouragement all Dave. I > > > > must say, as lousy > > > > > as my > > > > > year has been, I haven't hit the -20% mark yet. > > > > (I think I'm about > > > > > -14% > > > > > at last count). It seems strange, but there are > > > > several of us here > > > > > that > > > > > did make money in 2000 that seem to be leading the > > > > rear of the pack > > > > > for > > > > > 2001??? Hmmm. > > > > > > > > > > Dave Cameron wrote: > > > > > > > > > > > Jay, > > > > > > > > > > > > FWIW - I am too. I have tried to get back in > > > > the market several > > > > > > times - and each time, I keep getting burned. > > > > Actually, I made > > > > > > money in calendar year 2000 - despite the big > > > > drop in the Nasdaq. > > > > > > This year, I'm already down 20%. > > > > > > > > > > > > My advice is to do more or less what you are > > > > saying: > > > > > > 1. Sit out for a while. > > > > > > 2. Analyze your trades. > > > > > > 3. When you get back in, trade very small. > > > > The trades you > > > > > > make should seem almost like not worth > > > > doing because > > > > > > of their size. > > > > > > > > > > > > Now, realize that I believe this is the best > > > > thing to do - but it > > > > > > hasn't worked for me as well as I'd like. In > > > > my case, first > > > > > thing I > > > > > > did was get in too early - and get stopped out > > > > because of M. > > > > > Since > > > > > > I had several quick losses - I stopped for a > > > > while. Of course, > > > > > just > > > > > > when I stopped is when the market started to > > > > recover. Recently, > > > > > I > > > > > > finally got convinced we were in a good market > > > > for CANSLIM, and > > > > > > started buying again. I've been stopped out of > > > > all but one > > > > > trade > > > > > > this past week. When 4 out of 5 get stopped > > > > out in one day - it > > > > > can > > > > > > be demoralizing. > > > > > > > > > > > > What's hard - is hearing O'Neil's voice saying - > > > > "if you cut your > > > > > > losses religiously, eventually you'll make a big > > > > enough profit to > > > > > > offset" - when you're in the middle of the > > > > losses. Right now, > > > > > I've > > > > > > cut my losses religiously, but when one has 6 > > > > straight 7% losses > > > > > on > > > > > > average - that dropped my account value by 12%. > > > > > > > > > > > > So... anyway you're not alone - and I'm giving > > > > you the advice > > > > > that I > > > > > > believe is best, and I am employing now. > > > > > > > > > > > > Dave > > > > > > --- Jay Oken wrote: > > > > > > > What do people do when they are in a slump? It > > > > seems that > > > > > almost > > > > > > > every buy I have made the past couple of > > > > months has gone wrong. > > > > > I > > > > > > > know the market doesn't know who you are but I > > > > get the feeling > > > > > that > > > > > > > when I buy, the stock goes down and when I > > > > sell it goes up. I > > > > > > > intend to sit out the market for a while and > > > > analyze my most > > > > > recent > > > > > > > trades. (in light of that I sold 4 of my 5 > > > > stocks yesterday. > > > > > Today > > > > > > > all 4 went up while the one I held went down > > > > 10%). Last year I > > > > > was > > > > > > > up 14% in a down market but this year has been > > > > very rough and > > > > > now > > > === message truncated === > > > ===== > Dave Cameron > dfcameron@yahoo.com > > __________________________________________________ > Do You Yahoo!? > Spot the hottest trends in music, movies, and more. > http://buzz.yahoo.com/ > > - > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. > > > > - > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 18 Jun 2001 22:11:53 -0400 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] canslim.net Breakout Strategy This is a multi-part message in MIME format. - ------=_NextPart_000_013A_01C0F843.AED58520 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="Windows-1252" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable Sorry, Denis, but the owner of canslim.net I believe was a former member = of this group. Assuming I am correct, I was not impressed with his grasp = or understanding of the market then, nor am persuaded that a mechanical = trading mechanism will work now. Try me again in a year or so, or three = years or so ago, after you have experienced a few more cycles. CANSLIM is not a day trader's fantasy, it is designed for investors = instead. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net AIM: TexWorley ----- Original Message -----=20 From: Denis Breglia=20 To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20 Sent: Monday, June 18, 2001 7:02 PM Subject: [CANSLIM] canslim.net Breakout Strategy For the past two weeks I've been paper trading a mechanical strategy = based on closing prices and the breakout list at canslim.net. I was = looking for a quick, easy to implement, reliable trading system which = would "beat the index" without due diligence. This strategy did fairly = well for the week of 6/4-8. It beat QQQ 4 of 5 days and SPY 3 of 5 = days. But it lost to DIA 4 of 5 days. NOTE: There were no stops = used. All picks were held to today's close. =20 For any of you that don't know already, canslim.net uses an extensive = screening process to develop a "Leaders List" of about 400 stocks. = Hourly, during the trading day, the Leaders List is screened for stocks = that have reached or surpassed their 52 week highs. =20 My paper trading strategy was to further screen the breakout list at = market close for those stocks whose trading volume exceeded 300% ADV = (just to get a manageable number of picks). I considered my buys to be = the market closing prices. =20 Please note: I wasn't very precise on my volume screen. I eyeballed = the numbers. My picking process took less than a minute a day. =20 My picks, buy prices, today's closing prices and the %Gain (loss) as = of close today are listed below: =20 6/4/01 =20 AMN, 77.87, 56.30, (27.70), BANR, 20.21, 21.04, 4.11, CFFN, 18.28, 18.28, 0.00, CPRT, 26.20, 24.78, ( 5.42), DFXI, 38.13, 37.01, ( 2.94), EASI, 39.54, 33.00, (16.54), ESI, 43.55, 42.98, ( 1.31), GISX, 10.98, 9.80, (10.75), HITK, 9.04, 8.60, ( 4.87), HOC, 48.65, 45.75, ( 5.96), MOVI, 14.88, 14.37, ( 3.43), TARO, 73.75, 77.00, 4.41, WTSLA, 37.35, 35.67, ( 4.50), =20 Average ( 5.74) =20 For Comparison DIA, 110.67, 107.00, ( 3.32), SPY, 127.34, 121.26, ( 4.77), QQQ, 45.83, 42.03, ( 8.29), =20 =20 6/5/01 =20 AMN, 72.95, 56.30, ( 22.82), CBM, 56.99, 53.96, ( 5.32), DFXI, 40.20, 37.01, ( 7.94), DYII, 21.00, 16.29, ( 22.43), ENTG, 15.20, 12.00, ( 21.05), FDS, 44.90, 32.99, ( 26.53), HITK, 9.00, 8.60, ( 4.44), KG, 55.10, 55.35, 0.45, SP, 41.60, 30.62, ( 26.39), SRDX, 58.00, 38.00, ( 34.48), TGI, 47.75, 45.05, ( 5.65), TGX, 11.10, 10.75, ( 3.15), WTSLA, 38.10, 35.67, ( 6.38), Average ( 14.32) =20 For Comparison DIA, 111.96, 107.00, ( 4.43), SPY, 128.80, 121.26, ( 5.85), QQQ, 47.85, 42.03, ( 12.16), =20 6/6/01 DKWD, 29.15, 33.76, 15.81, FDS, 42.25, 32.99, ( 25.45), HDL, 14.00, 15.92, 13.71, LNCR, 65.40, 63.00, ( 3.67), SFC, 17.70, 19.74, 11.53, SP, 43.00, 30.62, ( 28.79), TGX, 11.05, 10.75, ( 2.71), =20 Average ( 2.79) =20 For Comparison DIA, 111.05, 107.00, ( 3.65), SPY, 127.73, 121.26, ( 5.07), QQQ, 47.48, 42.03, ( 11.48), =20 6/7/01 =20 BBX, 7.38, 7.61, 3.12, DKWD, 31.41, 33.76, 7.48, MDCI, 8.95, 7.45, ( 16.76), SFC, 20.00, 19.74, ( 1.30), TTWO, 23.95, 21.10, ( 11.90), WTM, 364.00, 380.00, ( 4.40), XTRM, 10.04, 9.04, ( 9.96), =20 Average ( = 4.82) =20 For Comparison DIA, 110.91, 107.00, ( 3.53), SPY, 128.19, 121.26, ( 5.41), QQQ, 48.70, 42.03, ( 13.70), =20 6/8/01 =20 AMWD, 35.99, 36.50, 1.42, CNTL, 27.60, 22.80, ( 17.39), DKWD, 33.67, 33.76, 0.27, HDL, 15.00, 15.92, = 6.13, SFC, 22.30, 19.74, ( = 11.48), =20 Average ( = 4.21) =20 For Comparison DIA, 109.75, 107.00, ( = 2.51), SPY, 127.00, 121.26, ( = 4.52), QQQ, 47.35, 42.03, ( = 10.57), =20 =20 =20 Any comments? Suggestions for another strategy? An obvious one is to = set 8% stop losses. This would require a lot more time to test. Would = it be worth doing? Note: I can't monitor during the day, so strategies = (if I'm to implement them) must not depend on intraday trading (with = exception of stop & limit orders). Perhaps there isn't any "easy" way. = =20 =20 =20 =20 - ------=_NextPart_000_013A_01C0F843.AED58520 Content-Type: text/html; charset="Windows-1252" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
Sorry, Denis, but the owner of canslim.net I believe = was a=20 former member of this group. Assuming I am correct, I was not impressed = with his=20 grasp or understanding of the market then, nor am persuaded that a = mechanical=20 trading mechanism will work now.  Try me again in a year or so, or = three=20 years or so ago, after you have experienced a few more = cycles.
 
CANSLIM is not a day trader's fantasy, it is = designed for=20 investors instead.
 
Tom Worley
stkguru@netside.net
AIM:=20 TexWorley
----- Original Message -----
From:=20 Denis=20 Breglia
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com =
Sent: Monday, June 18, 2001 = 7:02 PM
Subject: [CANSLIM] canslim.net = Breakout=20 Strategy

For the past two weeks I've been paper trading a = mechanical=20 strategy based on closing prices and the breakout list at = canslim.net.  I=20 was looking for a quick, easy to implement, reliable trading system = which=20 would "beat the index" without due diligence.  This strategy = did=20 fairly well for the week of 6/4-8.  It beat QQQ 4 of 5 days = and  SPY=20 3 of 5 days.  But it lost to DIA  4 of 5 days.  = NOTE: =20 There were no stops used.  All picks were held to today's=20 close.
 
For any of you that don't know already, = canslim.net uses an=20 extensive screening process to develop a "Leaders List" of about 400=20 stocks.  Hourly, during the trading day, the Leaders List is = screened for=20 stocks that have reached or surpassed their 52 week = highs.
 
My paper trading strategy was to further screen = the breakout=20 list at market close for those stocks whose trading volume exceeded = 300% ADV=20 (just to get a manageable number of picks).  I considered my buys = to be=20 the market closing prices.
 
Please note: I wasn't very precise on my volume=20 screen.  I eyeballed the numbers. My picking process took = less than=20 a minute a day.
 
My picks, buy prices, today's closing prices and = the %Gain=20 (loss) as of close today are listed below:
 
6/4/01
 
AMN,        =20 77.87,     56.30,    =20 (27.70),
BANR,    =20  20.21,    =20 21.04,         = 4.11,
CFFN,    =20  18.28,    =20 = 18.28,         0.00,<= /DIV>
CPRT,     =20 26.20,     24.78,     ( =20 5.42),
DFXI,       =20 = 38.13,     37.01,     (=  =20 2.94),
EASI,       =20 39.54,     33.00,    =20 (16.54),
ESI,       =   =20 43.55,     42.98,    =20 (  1.31),
GISX,    =20 =    10.98,      9.80, &n= bsp;   =20 (10.75),
HITK,     =     =20 9.04,      = 8.60,     =20 (  4.87),
HOC,      =20  48.65,    =20 45.75,     (  5.96),
MOVI,      =20  14.88,     14.37,     = ( =20 3.43),
TARO,      73.75,   = ; =20 77.00,         = 4.41,
WTSLA,   37.35,    =20 35.67,      (  4.50),
 
Average         &nb= sp;           &nbs= p;            = ;  =20 (  5.74)
 
For Comparison
DIA,      =20 110.67,     107.00,     = (  =20 3.32),
SPY,     =20 127.34,     121.26,     = (  =20 4.77),
QQQ,      =20 45.83,       = 42.03,    =20 (   8.29), 
 
6/5/01
 
AMN,       =20 72.95,      =20 56.30,      (  22.82),
CBM,       =20 56.99,      =20 53.96,      (    = 5.32),
DFXI,        40.20, = ;     =20 37.01,      (    = 7.94),
DYII,         =20 = 21.00,      16.29,    &= nbsp; ( =20 22.43),
ENTG,     =20 = 15.20,      12.00,    &= nbsp; =20 (  21.05),
FDS,         44.90,=       32.99,     &= nbsp;=20 (  26.53),
HITK,         =20 9.00,        =20 8.60,       (   =20 4.44),
KG,          &= nbsp; 55.10,      55.35,  &n= bsp;        =20 0.45,
SP,          &= nbsp; 41.60,     30.62,       (  = 26.39),
SRDX,     =20 58.00,      =20 38.00,       (  34.48),
TGI,          = =20 47.75,      =20 45.05,       (   =20 5.65),
TGX,         =20 11.10,      =20 10.75,       (   =20 3.15),
WTSLA,    =20 = 38.10,      35.67,   =   =20 (   6.38),
 
Average         &nb= sp;           &nbs= p;            = ;       =20 (  14.32)
 
For Comparison
DIA,          = =20 111.96,    =20 107.00,        (   =20 4.43),
SPY,          = 128.80,    =20 121.26,        (   =20 5.85),
QQQ,          = =20 47.85,       =20 42.03,       =20 (  12.16),
 
6/6/01
 
DKWD,      =20 29.15,        =20 =  33.76,          &= nbsp;=20 15.81,
FDS,          =  =20 42.25,         =20 32.99,        ( =20 25.45),
HDL,          =  =20 14.00,         =20 15.92,          =20  13.71,
LNCR,         65.40= ,         =20 = 63.00,        (   = =20 3.67),
SFC,          =   =20 17.70,         =20 19.74,          =20 11.53,
SP,          &= nbsp;    =20 43.00,         =20 30.62,        (  = 28.79),
TGX,          =    =20 11.05,         =20 10.75,        (   =20 2.71),
 
Average         &nb= sp;           &nbs= p;            = ;            =   =20 (    2.79)
 
For Comparison
DIA,          =    =20 111.05,      =20 107.00,         =20 (   3.65),
SPY,          =   =20 127.73,      =20 121.26,          = (  =20 5.07),
QQQ,          =    =20 47.48,         =20 42.03,        =20 ( 11.48),
 
6/7/01
 
BBX,          =        7.38,    &n= bsp;        =20 = 7.61,           &n= bsp;  =20 3.12,
DKWD,          = ;=20 31.41,          =20 = 33.76,           &= nbsp; =20  7.48,
MDCI,          = ;     =20 = 8.95,           &n= bsp;=20 = 7.45,           (&= nbsp;=20 16.76),
SFC,          =      =20 = 20.00,           1= 9.74,          ( &= nbsp;  =20 1.30),
TTWO,          = ;  =20 23.95,          =20 21.10,          = (  =20 11.90),
WTM,          =    364.00,        = =20 380.00,         =20 (     4.40),
XTRM,          = ;  =20 = 10.04,           &= nbsp;  9.04,        &nb= sp; =20 (    9.96),
 
Average         &nb= sp;           &nbs= p;            = ;            =          (   = =20 4.82)
 
For Comparison
DIA,          =       =20  110.91,        =20 = 107.00,           = =20 (     3.53),
SPY,          =       =20 128.19,         121.26,=20           =20 (     5.41),
QQQ,          =        =20 = 48.70,            = = 42.03,            = (   13.70),
 
6/8/01
 
AMWD,          = ;     =20 = 35.99,            = = 36.50,           &= nbsp;     =20 1.42,
CNTL,          = ;       =20 = 27.60,            = = 22.80,           (=   =20 17.39),
DKWD,          = ;       33.67,    =        =20 = 33.76,           &= nbsp;    =20 0.27,
HDL,          =           =20 = 15.00,            = = 15.92,           &= nbsp;   =20  6.13,
SFC,          =             2= 2.30,           =20 = 19.74,          ( =   11.48),
 
Average         &nb= sp;           &nbs= p;            = ;            =             &= nbsp;  =20 (      4.21)
 
For Comparison
DIA,          =              = 109.75,         =20 = 107.00,           =  =20 (    2.51),
SPY,          =             1= 27.00,          121.26,=              = (    4.52),
QQQ,          =              = = 47.35,            = = 42.03,           &= nbsp;=20 (   10.57),       =
 
 
Any comments? Suggestions for another = strategy?  An=20 obvious one is to set 8% stop losses.  This would require a lot = more time=20 to test.  Would it be worth doing? Note:  I can't monitor = during the=20 day, so strategies (if I'm to implement them) must not depend on = intraday=20 trading (with exception of stop & limit orders).   = Perhaps=20 there isn't any "easy" way.  
 
 
 
 
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