From: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com (canslim-digest) To: canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Subject: canslim-digest V2 #1523 Reply-To: canslim Sender: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Errors-To: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Precedence: bulk Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable X-No-Archive: yes canslim-digest Friday, June 22 2001 Volume 02 : Number 1523 In this issue: Re: [CANSLIM] IRM Re: [CANSLIM] ASCA - some may like this one Re: [CANSLIM] ESCM Re: [CANSLIM] IRM Re: [CANSLIM] IRM [CANSLIM] A market observation ... Re: [CANSLIM] A market observation - Valuation Re: [CANSLIM] A market observation - Valuation Re: [CANSLIM] A market observation - Valuation Re: [CANSLIM] A market observation - Valuation Re: [CANSLIM] DGX break out of base??? Re: [CANSLIM] IRM Re: [CANSLIM] ESCM [CANSLIM] CPRT,ANF,PPDI,IGT,DGX,SHFL,GPI Re: [CANSLIM] DGX break out of base??? Re: [CANSLIM] DGX break out of base??? Re: [CANSLIM] A market observation ... ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Date: Fri, 22 Jun 2001 09:04:10 -0700 From: "Sisyphus" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] IRM How long, then, are you willing to sit on a stock (assuming you buy in a= base) waiting for it to move? Why is this better than, say, finding= stocks that already enjoy a chunk of institutional ownership, which might= (might it not?) suggest that they will increase their positions, or that= others will follow? Isn't this closer to what WON suggests? John *********** REPLY SEPARATOR *********** On 6/22/2001 at 11:52 AM Tom Worley wrote: >I like to beat out both the institutionals and the funds, so >ownership of 8-10% becomes a negative to me. I have no problem >buying when neither have any ownership at all, so long as I am >comfortable with my assessment of the company. N - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 22 Jun 2001 12:03:46 -0400 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] ASCA - some may like this one That's one of the many hazards this group suffers, because we use different sites for our data. I use DGO religiously, and it shows the past two quarters earnings as up (Y2Y) 200% and 123% respectively. For the current year, forecast shown is an increase of 765%, and an additional 10% for year 2002. Remember that DGO excludes any non-recurring financial events, so what they consider is based only on what is perceived to be continuing matters. I agree with this approach, which is why I am willing to pay for DGO data. Sales for the two prior qtrs are shown up 17% and 90%. DGO ranks stocks within a group based first on RS, then on EPS. PENN has an RS of "only" 96, so it ends up ranked #6 in the group, WMS, with the same RS but a lower EPS would rank even lower, and IGT with an RS of 95 falls even lower. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net AIM: TexWorley - ----- Original Message ----- From: Sisyphus To: Sent: Friday, June 22, 2001 11:18 AM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] ASCA - some may like this one It has taken me a few days to get to this message. I'm a little confused...I see that current qtr. earnings are up a respectable amount, and 1-year forecasted earnings rock (although 2-yr. are a more modest 7%). Last two quaters, though, are nothing to shout about, while revenues have been accelerating. Current debt is 96%. This is not a company that I would have thought to track. How much do you weigh current and forecasted numbers against past numbers? Also, investors.com checkup has PENN at the top of the Leisure-Gaming group, followed by WMS and IGT...not ALLY. John On 6/19/2001 at 6:12 PM Tom Worley wrote: >Spotted this casino company on today's new highs. Low priced (closed at >$15.50) and thinly traded (ADV 35,900). Up a buck today crossing the pivot >on 5X ADV. RS of 99, EPS of 79, and earnings forecasted for this year >(ending Dec) at $1.47, up 765% and nearly 10% of today's price. > >It's tied with ALLY for #1 in the group, GRS at 96. ROE is only 7%, but >cash flow very strong at $1.52 compared to last year's earnings of $0.17. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 22 Jun 2001 12:07:45 -0400 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] ESCM I haven't researched it, but willing to bet that most of that high debt is represented by the convertible bonds. With the price performance, sooner or later the company will call the bonds and force conversion into newly issued shares, thus wiping out the debt. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net AIM: TexWorley - ----- Original Message ----- From: Dick Wilkinson To: Canslim Sent: Friday, June 22, 2001 11:09 AM Subject: [CANSLIM] ESCM ESC Medical(ESCM)is breaking out today on very heavy volume. Its group is Medical-Instruments, the other leaders in it are SRDX,ARTC,BMET. Eps 79, RS 95, GRS B-69, SMR A, A/C A. ROE is 101% Funds own 14%, mgmt only 7%. Up/down ratio 1.6 Big positive earnings have been outpacing sales, probably due to the high debt. At 329% a real negative. Made a large acquisition in April. I've done no research into this. ESCM bot Coherent Medical Group for 200 million. I'm not crazy about the chart and with M weak, I'm letting this one pass. Dick __________________________________________________ Do You Yahoo!? Get personalized email addresses from Yahoo! Mail http://personal.mail.yahoo.com/ - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 22 Jun 2001 12:16:48 -0400 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] IRM I prefer to be a leader than a follower. Thus, I don't mind being the first to stick my feet (and my money) into a situation that I feel will grow exponentially in price over the next few years. I am not buying for next month's spike because a fund wants to day or short term trade. I never buy a stock I am not willing to hold (even at minor losses) for a year or more. I have held stocks for a year or so until I got the price appreciation I expected. Whether a fund owns zero percent, or several percent, if the company is doing a good job, then funds ownership, and institutional ownership, will eventually increase. I am still a follower of the original CANSLIM, where size ("S") and institutional ownership ("I") mattered. They are two of the seven elements of CANSLIM, and I consider them important to my style of investing. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net AIM: TexWorley - ----- Original Message ----- From: Sisyphus To: Sent: Friday, June 22, 2001 12:04 PM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] IRM How long, then, are you willing to sit on a stock (assuming you buy in a base) waiting for it to move? Why is this better than, say, finding stocks that already enjoy a chunk of institutional ownership, which might (might it not?) suggest that they will increase their positions, or that others will follow? Isn't this closer to what WON suggests? John *********** REPLY SEPARATOR *********** On 6/22/2001 at 11:52 AM Tom Worley wrote: >I like to beat out both the institutionals and the funds, so >ownership of 8-10% becomes a negative to me. I have no problem >buying when neither have any ownership at all, so long as I am >comfortable with my assessment of the company. N - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 22 Jun 2001 09:28:20 -0700 From: Harvey Brion Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] IRM At first glance, nice looking 16 week cup with extended handle base. However, volume in handle is sporadic, not drying up, even during first 2 weeks of declining price. Even if the chart were perfect, not a good reason to buy if fundies aren't there (even when it eventually breaks out). Tom Worley wrote: > Much better, Ray. I had looked at the chart at DGO before my > snippy little reply, but did truly want to see what you were > looking at that commended this one to you. > > When I look at DGO, I see: > > Positive cash flow of $1.83 even tho they have had net losses for > years, and expected to report a net loss for the present year as > well. This isn't logical or rational to me, so would have to do a > lot of homework on the financials before I would trust this data. > > Management owns 32% (positive) but funds own 35% (negative). ADV > still manages to be over 200,000 > > Debt of 142%, don't know what is the norm for this esoteric > company (archiving records), but placing it in the > computer-services group seems pretty generalized and generic. > > A combined RS of 74 and EPS of 79 would likely keep it off my > radar screen. > > Profitable for past 3 qtrs, including 6 cents for Q1, yet > forecast for a loss of 5 cents this fiscal year. Either forecasts > are wrong and not updated to reflect recent trend, or it has some > bad qtrs still ahead. > > Earnings past 3 qtrs seem to me to be flat (stagnating), while > sales were growing. For the present Q2, it has an easy > comparison, after that it is going to be difficult if it doesn't > start delivering more oomph to the bottom line. > > Because of its RS, it is no where close to leadership in its > group, but it's such a diversified group, hard to judge. > > Chartwise, it has a nicely formed and tight 3 week base. But the > fundies show me no reason to think it has a reason to break out > any time soon. > > Group decent (B, GRS low end of a B at 63) > > On balance, more risk and uncertainty (questions) than apparent > potential for making me money. > > Tom Worley > stkguru@netside.net > AIM: TexWorley > > ----- Original Message ----- > From: Ray Bunting > To: > Sent: Friday, June 22, 2001 12:14 AM > Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] IRM > > IBD site ranks it > Technical Rating of 91, which places it 9th out of 108 stocks in > the > Computer-Services group > Attractiveness Rating of 92, placing it 9th out of 108 stocks in > its group > Fundamental Rating of 81, which places it 18th out of 108 stocks > in the > Computer-Services group > earnings do not look that great at least found nice looking C&H > I think > > > Welcome, Ray, > > What do you think about it? You tell me your opinion, and I'll > tell you mine. Deal? > > Tom Worley > stkguru@netside.net > AIM: TexWorley > > - > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. > > - > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 22 Jun 2001 10:30:44 -0700 From: "Ian" Subject: [CANSLIM] A market observation ... Hi all: I always make my CANSLIM buy/watch list using the most recent quarters revenue/EPS growth as my starting point. I then check for outlook, valuation, recent volume history, fundamental history and chart resistance. I have about 70 tickers on my list from Q1 2001. Because of my valuation concern, these are all small and microcaps, many with low prices and many with non-existant volume. I Have a 'top tier' of issues in my sweet spot ($11-$26, with $11-$16 optimal). I just thought that I would point out that, in keeping with recent history (the last 9 months of the bear), many of these bottomed in the recent panic during Wednesday and Thursday of this week. They have all rebounded off these bottoms, albeit on low low volumes. I also see that recent IBD high-fliers like BEIQ, ACRT and EPIQ have also bounced. The trigger for me writing this post is that these stocks are behaving well today. Even though all the major indexes are red, and the Russelll 2000 is down more than the S&P and NAZ and DOW, that my watch stocks are green by a ratio of about 2 to 1. This adds to my confidence that these issues (and perhaps 'M') may have put in a bottom for the quarter. I will watch closely to see if they continue to hold up into next Wednesday and Thursday. I find I have to watch this kind of thing to read 'M' (along with the major index price/volume action), since my brain tells me that we are still insanely over-valued given the grim outlook for tech and the economy, and the the S&P should be 800 and the NAZ should be 1100. Ian - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: 22 Jun 2001 12:30:33 CDT From: Fanus Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] A market observation - Valuation Hi Ian Can you eloborate a little on your statement of: "and the the S&P should be 800 and the NAZ should be 1100" and explain how you get to thes= e values? = The reason I am asking, is that I am always a little confused when people= putting valuations on indexes and stocks. I know I always have a tendanc= y to always oversimplify things. Make it easier for me to understand. But in = my view, the current price of something is its value at the moment. Value f= or me is, the price people are willing to pay. And if people are willing to pay= 1200 for the S&P and 2000 for the NASDAQ, then this is their value. Am I oversimplifying this too much? Regards - - Fanus "Ian" wrote: > Hi all: > = > I always make my CANSLIM buy/watch list using the most recent quarters > revenue/EPS growth as my starting point. I then check for outlook, > valuation, recent volume history, fundamental history and chart resista= nce. > = > I have about 70 tickers on my list from Q1 2001. Because of my valuatio= n > concern, these are all small and microcaps, many with low prices and ma= ny > with non-existant volume. I Have a 'top tier' of issues in my sweet spo= t > ($11-$26, with $11-$16 optimal). > = > I just thought that I would point out that, in keeping with recent hist= ory > (the last 9 months of the bear), many of these bottomed in the recent p= anic > during Wednesday and Thursday of this week. They have all rebounded of= f > these bottoms, albeit on low low volumes. I also see that recent IBD > high-fliers like BEIQ, ACRT and EPIQ have also bounced. > = > The trigger for me writing this post is that these stocks are behaving = well > today. Even though all the major indexes are red, and the Russelll 2000= is > down more than the S&P and NAZ and DOW, that my watch stocks are green = by a > ratio of about 2 to 1. This adds to my confidence that these issues (a= nd > perhaps 'M') may have put in a bottom for the quarter. I will watch clo= sely > to see if they continue to hold up into next Wednesday and Thursday. I= find > I have to watch this kind of thing to read 'M' (along with the major in= dex > price/volume action), since my brain tells me that we are still insanel= y > over-valued given the grim outlook for tech and the economy, and the th= e S&P > should be 800 and the NAZ should be 1100. > = > Ian > = > = > = > = > - > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 22 Jun 2001 10:51:00 -0700 (PDT) From: Victor Ming Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] A market observation - Valuation Hi Fanus, As the much respected Warren Buffett once said, "PRICE is what you pay, VALUE is what you get!" fg - --- Fanus wrote: > Hi Ian > > Can you eloborate a little on your statement of: > "and the the S&P > should be 800 and the NAZ should be 1100" and > explain how you get to these > values? > > The reason I am asking, is that I am always a little > confused when people > putting valuations on indexes and stocks. I know I > always have a tendancy to > always oversimplify things. Make it easier for me to > understand. But in my > view, the current price of something is its value at > the moment. Value for me > is, the price people are willing to pay. And if > people are willing to pay 1200 > for the S&P and 2000 for the NASDAQ, then this is > their value. Am I > oversimplifying this too much? > > Regards > - Fanus > > > "Ian" wrote: > > Hi all: > > > > I always make my CANSLIM buy/watch list using the > most recent quarters > > revenue/EPS growth as my starting point. I then > check for outlook, > > valuation, recent volume history, fundamental > history and chart resistance. > > > > I have about 70 tickers on my list from Q1 2001. > Because of my valuation > > concern, these are all small and microcaps, many > with low prices and many > > with non-existant volume. I Have a 'top tier' of > issues in my sweet spot > > ($11-$26, with $11-$16 optimal). > > > > I just thought that I would point out that, in > keeping with recent history > > (the last 9 months of the bear), many of these > bottomed in the recent panic > > during Wednesday and Thursday of this week. They > have all rebounded off > > these bottoms, albeit on low low volumes. I also > see that recent IBD > > high-fliers like BEIQ, ACRT and EPIQ have also > bounced. > > > > The trigger for me writing this post is that these > stocks are behaving well > > today. Even though all the major indexes are red, > and the Russelll 2000 is > > down more than the S&P and NAZ and DOW, that my > watch stocks are green by a > > ratio of about 2 to 1. This adds to my confidence > that these issues (and > > perhaps 'M') may have put in a bottom for the > quarter. I will watch closely > > to see if they continue to hold up into next > Wednesday and Thursday. I > find > > I have to watch this kind of thing to read 'M' > (along with the major index > > price/volume action), since my brain tells me that > we are still insanely > > over-valued given the grim outlook for tech and > the economy, and the the > S&P > > should be 800 and the NAZ should be 1100. > > > > Ian > > > > > > > > > > - > > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email > "majordomo@xmission.com" > > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your > email. > > > - > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email > "majordomo@xmission.com" > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. __________________________________________________ Do You Yahoo!? Get personalized email addresses from Yahoo! Mail http://personal.mail.yahoo.com/ - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: 22 Jun 2001 13:26:14 CDT From: Fanus Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] A market observation - Valuation And I am not sure Warren Buffet would ever buy a CANSLIM stock, so I am n= ot sure his defition of value is compatible with CANSLIM. I am pretty sure = WON's definition of Value would be quite different than Warren Buffet. If Warr= en Buffet think the NASDAQ should be 1100, but other people is willing to pa= y 2000 for it, does this mean they are wrong? I still think one should rat= her look what the market is telling you than trying to tell the maket what i= ts value should be. - - Fanus Victor Ming wrote: > Hi Fanus, > = > As the much respected Warren Buffett once said, "PRICE > is what you pay, VALUE is what you get!" > = > fg > = > --- Fanus wrote: > > Hi Ian > > = > > Can you eloborate a little on your statement of: > > "and the the S&P > > should be 800 and the NAZ should be 1100" and > > explain how you get to these > > values? = > > = > > The reason I am asking, is that I am always a little > > confused when people > > putting valuations on indexes and stocks. I know I > > always have a tendancy to > > always oversimplify things. Make it easier for me to > > understand. But in my > > view, the current price of something is its value at > > the moment. Value for me > > is, the price people are willing to pay. And if > > people are willing to pay 1200 > > for the S&P and 2000 for the NASDAQ, then this is > > their value. Am I > > oversimplifying this too much? > > = > > Regards > > - Fanus > > = > > = > > "Ian" wrote: > > > Hi all: > > > = > > > I always make my CANSLIM buy/watch list using the > > most recent quarters > > > revenue/EPS growth as my starting point. I then > > check for outlook, > > > valuation, recent volume history, fundamental > > history and chart resistance. > > > = > > > I have about 70 tickers on my list from Q1 2001. > > Because of my valuation > > > concern, these are all small and microcaps, many > > with low prices and many > > > with non-existant volume. I Have a 'top tier' of > > issues in my sweet spot > > > ($11-$26, with $11-$16 optimal). > > > = > > > I just thought that I would point out that, in > > keeping with recent history > > > (the last 9 months of the bear), many of these > > bottomed in the recent panic > > > during Wednesday and Thursday of this week. They > > have all rebounded off > > > these bottoms, albeit on low low volumes. I also > > see that recent IBD > > > high-fliers like BEIQ, ACRT and EPIQ have also > > bounced. > > > = > > > The trigger for me writing this post is that these > > stocks are behaving well > > > today. Even though all the major indexes are red, > > and the Russelll 2000 is > > > down more than the S&P and NAZ and DOW, that my > > watch stocks are green by a > > > ratio of about 2 to 1. This adds to my confidence > > that these issues (and > > > perhaps 'M') may have put in a bottom for the > > quarter. I will watch closely > > > to see if they continue to hold up into next > > Wednesday and Thursday. I > > find > > > I have to watch this kind of thing to read 'M' > > (along with the major index > > > price/volume action), since my brain tells me that > > we are still insanely > > > over-valued given the grim outlook for tech and > > the economy, and the the > > S&P > > > should be 800 and the NAZ should be 1100. > > > = > > > Ian > > > = > > > = > > > = > > > = > > > - > > > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email > > "majordomo@xmission.com" > > > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > > > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your > > email. > > = > > = > > - > > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email > > "majordomo@xmission.com" > > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your > email. > = > = > __________________________________________________ > Do You Yahoo!? > Get personalized email addresses from Yahoo! Mail > http://personal.mail.yahoo.com/ > = > - > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 22 Jun 2001 12:20:49 -0700 From: "Ian" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] A market observation - Valuation Actually, I think Warren Buffet's 'perfect' stock would be a CANSLIM stock trading for 50 cents on the dollar (based on tangible assets). After all, he is the one who moved from pure Ben Graham value to GARP. - ----- Original Message ----- From: Fanus To: Sent: Friday, June 22, 2001 11:26 AM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] A market observation - Valuation And I am not sure Warren Buffet would ever buy a CANSLIM stock, so I am not sure his defition of value is compatible with CANSLIM. I am pretty sure WON's definition of Value would be quite different than Warren Buffet. If Warren Buffet think the NASDAQ should be 1100, but other people is willing to pay 2000 for it, does this mean they are wrong? I still think one should rather look what the market is telling you than trying to tell the maket what its value should be. - - Fanus Victor Ming wrote: > Hi Fanus, > > As the much respected Warren Buffett once said, "PRICE > is what you pay, VALUE is what you get!" > > fg > > --- Fanus wrote: > > Hi Ian > > > > Can you eloborate a little on your statement of: > > "and the the S&P > > should be 800 and the NAZ should be 1100" and > > explain how you get to these > > values? > > > > The reason I am asking, is that I am always a little > > confused when people > > putting valuations on indexes and stocks. I know I > > always have a tendancy to > > always oversimplify things. Make it easier for me to > > understand. But in my > > view, the current price of something is its value at > > the moment. Value for me > > is, the price people are willing to pay. And if > > people are willing to pay 1200 > > for the S&P and 2000 for the NASDAQ, then this is > > their value. Am I > > oversimplifying this too much? > > > > Regards > > - Fanus > > > > > > "Ian" wrote: > > > Hi all: > > > > > > I always make my CANSLIM buy/watch list using the > > most recent quarters > > > revenue/EPS growth as my starting point. I then > > check for outlook, > > > valuation, recent volume history, fundamental > > history and chart resistance. > > > > > > I have about 70 tickers on my list from Q1 2001. > > Because of my valuation > > > concern, these are all small and microcaps, many > > with low prices and many > > > with non-existant volume. I Have a 'top tier' of > > issues in my sweet spot > > > ($11-$26, with $11-$16 optimal). > > > > > > I just thought that I would point out that, in > > keeping with recent history > > > (the last 9 months of the bear), many of these > > bottomed in the recent panic > > > during Wednesday and Thursday of this week. They > > have all rebounded off > > > these bottoms, albeit on low low volumes. I also > > see that recent IBD > > > high-fliers like BEIQ, ACRT and EPIQ have also > > bounced. > > > > > > The trigger for me writing this post is that these > > stocks are behaving well > > > today. Even though all the major indexes are red, > > and the Russelll 2000 is > > > down more than the S&P and NAZ and DOW, that my > > watch stocks are green by a > > > ratio of about 2 to 1. This adds to my confidence > > that these issues (and > > > perhaps 'M') may have put in a bottom for the > > quarter. I will watch closely > > > to see if they continue to hold up into next > > Wednesday and Thursday. I > > find > > > I have to watch this kind of thing to read 'M' > > (along with the major index > > > price/volume action), since my brain tells me that > > we are still insanely > > > over-valued given the grim outlook for tech and > > the economy, and the the > > S&P > > > should be 800 and the NAZ should be 1100. > > > > > > Ian > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > - > > > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email > > "majordomo@xmission.com" > > > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > > > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your > > email. > > > > > > - > > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email > > "majordomo@xmission.com" > > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your > email. > > > __________________________________________________ > Do You Yahoo!? > Get personalized email addresses from Yahoo! Mail > http://personal.mail.yahoo.com/ > > - > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 22 Jun 2001 15:14:58 EDT From: Spencer48@aol.com Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] DGX break out of base??? Bill: To my eye it broke out from the pivot point on 5/17 at 64.125 (I use th= e=20 close price in a bear) on about 1=BD ADV. The handle was the 1=BD week in th= e 1st=20 part of May, and the Cup formed between late Dec. and early May. What puzzle= s=20 me is that DGX should have been sold because when it hit 58.22 on 5/30 the=20 automatic 8% stop-loss trigger should have been pulled. However, if you=20 waited for close (it closed at 60.83, around a 5% loss from the purchase=20 price) you could have avoided the automatic trigger. Additonally, if one had used a non-close price, the pivot point would=20 have been 63 and an 8% drop would have triggered an automatic sell at 57.96=20= =20 Thus, you wouldn't have been taken out during the volatile May period. I don't think its C&H looked sloppy at all; however, I would have had=20 trouble with its 2 quarters of 3% growth in sales; its 2001 non-spectacular=20 11% growth in earnings; and its ROE of only 11%. Also, what would make me=20 look twice is that management has only a 3% non-retail holding in the stock. jans - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 22 Jun 2001 15:27:38 EDT From: Spencer48@aol.com Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] IRM Tom: I wouldn't buy IRM because the Mkt is so bad (I believe). However, IRM= =20 has made a pretty nice C&H formation.=20 My take on the cash flow is this: Assume that they did make money=20 during the year is at least equal to their investment in new builidngs and=20 equipment. Now their income statement shows an earnings loss because of=20 their heavy investment in new buildings and equipment. This investment lead= s=20 to a large depreciation expense. Thus, all the money they earned + their large depreciation expense goes= =20 toward their cash flow. Does this make sense? How would you analyze their=20 large cash flow vs. a 47=A2 loss in 2000. =20 jans - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 22 Jun 2001 15:38:01 EDT From: Spencer48@aol.com Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] ESCM Tom: If they do redeem the covertibles into new shares won't this then reduce projected earnings? jans In a message dated 6/22/2001 12:08:52 PM Eastern Daylight Time, stkguru@netside.net writes: << I haven't researched it, but willing to bet that most of that high debt is represented by the convertible bonds. With the price performance, sooner or later the company will call the bonds and force conversion into newly issued shares, thus wiping out the debt. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net AIM: TexWorley >> - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 22 Jun 2001 16:28:20 -0400 From: Jerry Sparrow Subject: [CANSLIM] CPRT,ANF,PPDI,IGT,DGX,SHFL,GPI As a first attempt of a lurking coming out of the woodwork, I am looking at the following below. What are the group thoughts? I am including the quick info on these stocks. Ind Daily Grp Graphs Symbol Overall Tech Fund Attrat Grp Tech Grp Fund Rank (1-197) Timeliness EPS RS Grp RS SMR Acc/Dis CPRT A+ 97 99 99 84 78 22 A 97 90 A A A ANF A+ 99 93 99 93 89 18 A 93 98 A A B PPDI A+ 95 90 94 95 85 9 A 95 97 A A A IGT A+ 99 96 91 98 93 6 A 97 95 A A A DGX A+ 97 98 99 95 85 9 A 99 93 A B A SHFL A+ 96 99 86 98 93 6 A 95 98 A A B GPI A+ 99 97 97 99 83 4 A 95 99 A B A Jerry Sparrow, CPA Corporate Controller Biscuitville Restaurants, Inc. ************************************************************************************************** The Firelan(tm) Virus Scanning Service has scanned this email for viruses, vandals and malicious content. http://www.firelan.net ************************************************************************************************** - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 22 Jun 2001 13:50:41 -0700 From: "Bill Triffet" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] DGX break out of base??? Jans, I had picked it up on 6/1 @ 64.59. I pulled the plug on 6/14 @ 61.95. My thought at the time was to try and "pre-catch" the pivot which I perceived to be the Dec high of 71.53. I had missed several others on gap ups and was trying something new. I see now that it formed yet another short downward base just like the last two bases. I managed to sell at just the wrong time. Btw, up till then I was using only market orders. What threw me was IBD calling it a base at all. I guess chart reading is a very interpretive process...(g). - -Bill Triffet - ----- Original Message ----- From: To: Sent: Friday, June 22, 2001 12:14 PM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] DGX break out of base??? Bill: To my eye it broke out from the pivot point on 5/17 at 64.125 (I use the close price in a bear) on about 1½ ADV. The handle was the 1½ week in the 1st part of May, and the Cup formed between late Dec. and early May. What puzzles me is that DGX should have been sold because when it hit 58.22 on 5/30 the automatic 8% stop-loss trigger should have been pulled. However, if you waited for close (it closed at 60.83, around a 5% loss from the purchase price) you could have avoided the automatic trigger. Additonally, if one had used a non-close price, the pivot point would have been 63 and an 8% drop would have triggered an automatic sell at 57.96 Thus, you wouldn't have been taken out during the volatile May period. I don't think its C&H looked sloppy at all; however, I would have had trouble with its 2 quarters of 3% growth in sales; its 2001 non-spectacular 11% growth in earnings; and its ROE of only 11%. Also, what would make me look twice is that management has only a 3% non-retail holding in the stock. jans - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 22 Jun 2001 17:21:25 EDT From: Spencer48@aol.com Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] DGX break out of base??? Bill: Tell me about it: Chart reading is much more an Art (the original Artful Dodger) than a Science-because everyone see something differently-and if they all agree about seeing the same thing, they'll point to it as having occurred at different times. For instance, with DGX, I see the pivot (the high of the right lip in the cup) as 62.75 on 5/2. jans In a message dated 6/22/2001 4:43:52 PM Eastern Daylight Time, btriffet@earthlink.net writes: << Jans, I had picked it up on 6/1 @ 64.59. I pulled the plug on 6/14 @ 61.95. My thought at the time was to try and "pre-catch" the pivot which I perceived to be the Dec high of 71.53. I had missed several others on gap ups and was trying something new. I see now that it formed yet another short downward base just like the last two bases. I managed to sell at just the wrong time. Btw, up till then I was using only market orders. What threw me was IBD calling it a base at all. I guess chart reading is a very interpretive process...(g). -Bill Triffet >> - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 22 Jun 2001 23:30:34 +0200 From: "Makara, Tamas" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] A market observation ... Ian, I appreciate your posts and I am glad that you joined the list. I simpathize with your thinking and like your picks. What's exactly that you are looking for in the most recent quarters revenue/EPS growth? Acceleration or certain levels? Regards, Tamas Ian wrote: > Hi all: > > I always make my CANSLIM buy/watch list using the most recent quarters > revenue/EPS growth as my starting point. I then check for outlook, > valuation, recent volume history, fundamental history and chart resistance. > > I have about 70 tickers on my list from Q1 2001. Because of my valuation > concern, these are all small and microcaps, many with low prices and many > with non-existant volume. I Have a 'top tier' of issues in my sweet spot > ($11-$26, with $11-$16 optimal). > > I just thought that I would point out that, in keeping with recent history > (the last 9 months of the bear), many of these bottomed in the recent panic > during Wednesday and Thursday of this week. They have all rebounded off > these bottoms, albeit on low low volumes. I also see that recent IBD > high-fliers like BEIQ, ACRT and EPIQ have also bounced. > > The trigger for me writing this post is that these stocks are behaving well > today. Even though all the major indexes are red, and the Russelll 2000 is > down more than the S&P and NAZ and DOW, that my watch stocks are green by a > ratio of about 2 to 1. This adds to my confidence that these issues (and > perhaps 'M') may have put in a bottom for the quarter. I will watch closely > to see if they continue to hold up into next Wednesday and Thursday. I find > I have to watch this kind of thing to read 'M' (along with the major index > price/volume action), since my brain tells me that we are still insanely > over-valued given the grim outlook for tech and the economy, and the the S&P > should be 800 and the NAZ should be 1100. > > Ian > > - > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ End of canslim-digest V2 #1523 ****************************** To unsubscribe to canslim-digest, send an email to "majordomo@xmission.com" with "unsubscribe canslim-digest" in the body of the message. For information on digests or retrieving files and old messages send "help" to the same address. 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