From: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com (canslim-digest) To: canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Subject: canslim-digest V2 #1530 Reply-To: canslim Sender: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Errors-To: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Precedence: bulk Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable X-No-Archive: yes canslim-digest Tuesday, June 26 2001 Volume 02 : Number 1530 In this issue: Re: [CANSLIM] (CANSLIM) DGO List/Weekly Scan Re: [CANSLIM] Unusual volume spikes - prelude to a price move ... . [CANSLIM] Re: (CANSLIM) DGO List/Weekly Scan/SRDX [CANSLIM] Re:shorting [CANSLIM] Re:Buying in a base [CANSLIM] Re:positives from real money Re: [CANSLIM] S Funnels and SRDX (was Re: [CANSLIM] (CANSLIM) DGO List/Weekly Scan) Re: [CANSLIM] IBD RS SPTN (was Re: [CANSLIM] Unusual volume spikes - prelude to a price move ...._) Re: [CANSLIM] Unusual volume spikes - prelude to a price move .... Re: [CANSLIM] Re: (CANSLIM) DGO List/Weekly Scan/SRDX Re: [CANSLIM] Re:shorting Re: SPTN (was Re: [CANSLIM] Unusual volume spikes - prelude to a price move ...._) [CANSLIM] test [CANSLIM] RLRN Re: [CANSLIM] RLRN ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Date: Mon, 25 Jun 2001 14:54:14 -0700 From: Tim Fisher Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] (CANSLIM) DGO List/Weekly Scan IMO, SRDX went from a "nice" chart to an "ugly" chart. Stopped me out a while ago and looking back, that was a good thing. When stocks start correcting 25%, they're off my watch list, until they form a new, valid base. IMHO the return to the former base is not a valid CANSLIM base by any stretch of the imagination...thus is a "playing with fire" stock if I ever saw one...even at a new high, it's for day traders, not CANSLIMers... On 02:35 PM 6/25/01, Spencer48@aol.com Said: >Tom: > > Are you selecting 40 (which looks like a support area) as the base >instead of 47 (which looks like the low of a C&H base to me)? > > Also, doesn't the plummet and the swift rise look to you like the 1st >downleg of a W-formation? > >jans > >In a message dated 6/25/2001 2:42:25 AM Eastern Daylight Time, >stkguru@netside.net writes: > ><< The funnel pattern I mention on SRDX is not a WON chart pattern. It is one >described here by a member a long time back, maybe a year or more. I treat >it more as a brief interruption in a basing pattern. Because it is so >vertical (hence a funnel rather than a cup), and returns to the original >base, I consider it both a warning signal (that it could drop so fast for >whatever reason) and also a positive (that it could quickly return to the >base). Volume should be examined carefully. In this case, it took five days >for the left side, and only four days on the right side. Volume on the right >was greater than on the left. It is also good to know why it fell so >precipitously in the first place. But the quick return on volume suggests >strength, and institutional support. >> > >- >-To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" >-In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or >-"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. Tim Fisher Ore-Rock-On and Pacific Fishery Biologists WWW Sites Tim@OreRockOn.com WWW: http://OreRockOn.com See naked fish and rocks! - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 25 Jun 2001 18:03:55 EDT From: Spencer48@aol.com Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Unusual volume spikes - prelude to a price move ... . Eric: You may very well be right, but I believe WON would analyze it thusly: Many investors are getting tired of holding it, so they sell. Thus, the high volume. Meanwhile, institutions are high on the stock, so they buy what the sellers (or even other institutions) are selling. The tight range indicates that there is interest in the stock (ie. the stock does not have to drop in price for buyers to snap it up). Now this assumes that the hi volume is during a flat base of a stock that has not seen a run up. jans In a message dated 6/25/2001 2:59:04 PM Eastern Daylight Time, tangene@tycoelectronics.com writes: << High volume one day spikes (like > 400%)with no price movement are long term bullish in a long flat base of a small cap stock prior to its first real breakout. The ultimate breakout may not come until weeks or even months later. I've have a feeling that this represents an institution to institution sale of a large block of shares at a price the two parties agree to without going through normal channels of the market makers. Does anyone else have any further insight? Churning action takes place in a price plateau after a nice price advance. Eric Tangen >> - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 25 Jun 2001 19:33:48 -0700 From: "Chris McShaffrey" Subject: [CANSLIM] Re: (CANSLIM) DGO List/Weekly Scan/SRDX Did anyone see any news that caused such a drop? (or does it really matter?) I have been unable to find anything. The stock will be added to the S&P Small Cap 600 which might have caused the quick return. Do you think the "institutions" share buy/sell info? Does ABC tell call XYZ and say hey - I'm selling/buying 200,000 shares of SRDX today? Or are "The Big Guys" pretty guarded about their buy/sells? Chris Mc - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 25 Jun 2001 23:14:00 -0000 From: "Bill Staton" Subject: [CANSLIM] Re:shorting Who can recommend some good books on shorting, or investment books that deal with shorting? I have enough technical analysis books that deal with this...I'm looking for something that deals more with fundamentals, in considerably more detail than WON does in "How to Make Money..." John >> Shorting the market is about as dangerous a thing as you can pursue. After all, you can lose 100% of your money. Wealthy people, truly wealthy people, don't short. Bill Staton Money Management / Speeches / Lifetime Riches Seminars Not sure if you need a Money Manager? Take this quick quiz and find out: http://www.billstaton.com/quiz.htm - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 25 Jun 2001 23:14:00 -0000 From: "Bill Staton" Subject: [CANSLIM] Re:Buying in a base Tom, Here's a blurb from a recent IBD that you may find interesting/useful: "Merrill Lynch & Co. has found a new way to weigh a stock's performance. It's inversely proportional to the size of a company's 10K.......The longer the 10K, the more complex and often more messed up the business......Taking a 48-company sample from its tech sector, ML found 83% of companies that filed year 2000 10K's smaller than 300 kilobytes outperformed its index. Only 18% of firms with filings over 500K did likewise. Stocks of firms with obese 10K's fell an average of 77% in 2000 vs. 52% for skinny 10K's and 63% for the index. The discrepancy is too big to ignore.......The longer the 10K, the more complicated the business is, and the more problem issues such as write-offs need to be explained." Best wishes, Walt >> Makes sense to me. Great wealth is made by starting and maintaining a simple program. Bill Staton Money Management / Speeches / Lifetime Riches Seminars Not sure if you need a Money Manager? Take this quick quiz and find out: http://www.billstaton.com/quiz.htm - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 25 Jun 2001 23:14:00 -0000 From: "Bill Staton" Subject: [CANSLIM] Re:positives from real money << 10. No one believes the Market CAN rally. >> Actually, almost everybody believes it, which is why I don't believe it. Bill Staton Money Management / Speeches / Lifetime Riches Seminars Not sure if you need a Money Manager? Take this quick quiz and find out: http://www.billstaton.com/quiz.htm - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 25 Jun 2001 23:17:32 -0400 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] S 10 million, with a float of 4 million or less Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net AIM: TexWorley - ----- Original Message ----- From: Dave Cameron To: Sent: Monday, June 25, 2001 8:48 AM Subject: [CANSLIM] S I was re-listening to the tapes by WON and David Ryan re: buying/selling. WON mentioned that his best successes have been with shares outstanding less than 30 million. Of course, it seems WON's best successes were 20+ years ago. I'm wondering if anyone has a upside on shares outstanding they like to stay under. Thanks, ===== Dave Cameron dfcameron@yahoo.com __________________________________________________ Do You Yahoo!? Get personalized email addresses from Yahoo! Mail http://personal.mail.yahoo.com/ - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 25 Jun 2001 23:46:33 -0400 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Funnels and SRDX (was Re: [CANSLIM] (CANSLIM) DGO List/Weekly Scan) Actually, I was looking at the short base just under 55 (albeit with a slight uptrend, and with light vol) that formed after it hit the high of 57.15 on 5/2. After this base, it hit another high of 59.25 on 6/4, this time on nearly 1.5X ADV. Then on 6/12, it went into its "funnel". The funnel is a little wider that I like, preferably it's all over in a week or less, so not even a good chart for a day trader unless they are awfully nimble. I might add, it hit another high today, again on nearly 1.5X ADV. I want to emphasize that this type of pattern, for CANSLIMers, is not a buy signal, nor a completely healthy signal. The key for me is simply that it shows some amazing strength and support, esp when "M" is as poor as at present. But it is also a clear warning and signal how quickly you can lose money when a stock falls out of favor. Had the price not quickly recovered, this pattern would be seen as topping action / distribution / churning on 6/4. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net AIM: TexWorley - ----- Original Message ----- From: To: Sent: Monday, June 25, 2001 5:35 PM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] (CANSLIM) DGO List/Weekly Scan Tom: Are you selecting 40 (which looks like a support area) as the base instead of 47 (which looks like the low of a C&H base to me)? Also, doesn't the plummet and the swift rise look to you like the 1st downleg of a W-formation? jans In a message dated 6/25/2001 2:42:25 AM Eastern Daylight Time, stkguru@netside.net writes: << The funnel pattern I mention on SRDX is not a WON chart pattern. It is one described here by a member a long time back, maybe a year or more. I treat it more as a brief interruption in a basing pattern. Because it is so vertical (hence a funnel rather than a cup), and returns to the original base, I consider it both a warning signal (that it could drop so fast for whatever reason) and also a positive (that it could quickly return to the base). Volume should be examined carefully. In this case, it took five days for the left side, and only four days on the right side. Volume on the right was greater than on the left. It is also good to know why it fell so precipitously in the first place. But the quick return on volume suggests strength, and institutional support. >> - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 25 Jun 2001 23:32:54 -0400 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] IBD RS This is a multi-part message in MIME format. - ------=_NextPart_000_007E_01C0FDCF.28877F00 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable RE: [CANSLIM] IBD RSI am more comfortable with stocks that have shown = sequential quarterly earnings and sales growth. I much prefer this kind = of steady, predictable growth to a company with significant seasonality = to its results. With that said, it is also much easier to form an = expectation of what it will take for the next quarter to maintain = investor expectations. I also look at the full year forecasts as well as = the quarterly forecasts at some net sites like CompanySleuth.com. I = also weigh whether earnings efficiencies are kicking in on higher sales = (e.g. earnings growing faster than sales). With enough time, I will = examine several 10Qs to see if SG&A us growing faster than sales, and = how it shows as a percentage of sales. I will check to see if they are = still using up any tax loss carryforwards, and when that will run out = (which usually causes a real nasty blip in earnings and per share price = when it does). I will examine the past several quarters to see if they are at least on = track, and preferably well ahead, of what they must do to meet or exceed = full year forecasts. If they are behind, I will see what they must do in = the remaining quarters to catch up (and also usually just watch, not = buy, until I see another quarter). A company that has shown a penny increase every qtr over the prior = sequential qtr only needs to be flat one qtr (even if year to year is = still up 20 or 30%) to prick the bubble of investor expectations. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net AIM: TexWorley ----- Original Message -----=20 From: Dempsey, Chris=20 To: 'canslim@lists.xmission.com'=20 Sent: Monday, June 25, 2001 5:49 PM Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] IBD RS Tom, I'm curious as to how do you determine your expectations of = earning for a stock?=20 -----Original Message-----=20 From: Tom Worley [mailto:stkguru@netside.net]=20 Sent: Sunday, June 24, 2001 12:00 AM=20 To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20 Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] IBD RS=20 RS is a current price indicator, with respect not just to the=20 individual stock, but to what the market is doing. I actively use=20 it as a screening device for putting stocks on (or taking them=20 off) my watch list. But once I own a stock, I pay more attention=20 to what the stock is doing (both price wise as well as actual=20 results) than to how popular it is. While it is important to me=20 that my future expectations of earnings is in line with general=20 market expectations, my opinion is more important to me. I also=20 monitor the up/down ratio a lot closer than RS once I own a=20 stock.=20 I will sell a stock whose actual results fall below my=20 expectations even when RS remains well above 80. And I will hold=20 a stock whose actual results meet or exceed my expectations even=20 when its RS falls under 80.=20 - ------=_NextPart_000_007E_01C0FDCF.28877F00 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable RE: [CANSLIM] IBD RS
I am more comfortable with stocks that have shown = sequential=20 quarterly earnings and sales growth. I much prefer this kind of steady,=20 predictable growth to a company with significant seasonality to its = results.=20 With that said, it is also much easier to form an expectation of what it = will=20 take for the next quarter to maintain investor expectations. I also look = at the=20 full year forecasts as well as the quarterly forecasts at some net sites = like=20 CompanySleuth.com.  I also weigh whether earnings efficiencies are = kicking=20 in on higher sales (e.g. earnings growing faster than sales). With = enough time,=20 I will examine several 10Qs to see if SG&A us growing faster than = sales, and=20 how it shows as a percentage of sales. I will check to see if they are = still=20 using up any tax loss carryforwards, and when that will run out (which = usually=20 causes a real nasty blip in earnings and per share price when it=20 does).
 
I will examine the past several quarters to see if = they are at=20 least on track, and preferably well ahead, of what they must do to meet = or=20 exceed full year forecasts. If they are behind, I will see what they = must do in=20 the remaining quarters to catch up (and also usually just watch, not = buy, until=20 I see another quarter).
 
A company that has shown a penny increase every qtr = over the=20 prior sequential qtr only needs to be flat one qtr (even if year to year = is=20 still up 20 or 30%) to prick the bubble of investor = expectations.
 
Tom Worley
stkguru@netside.net
AIM:=20 TexWorley
----- Original Message -----
From:=20 Dempsey, Chris
To: 'canslim@lists.xmission.com' =
Sent: Monday, June 25, 2001 = 5:49 PM
Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] IBD = RS

Tom, I'm curious as to how do you determine your = expectations=20 of earning for a stock?

-----Original Message-----
From: Tom=20 Worley [mailto:stkguru@netside.net]=20
Sent: Sunday, June 24, 2001 12:00 AM =
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com= =20
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] IBD RS



RS is a current price indicator, with respect not = just to=20 the
individual stock, but to what the market = is doing.=20 I actively use
it as a screening device for = putting=20 stocks on (or taking them
off) my watch = list. But once=20 I own a stock, I pay more attention
to what = the stock=20 is doing (both price wise as well as actual
results)=20 than to how popular it is. While it is important to me =
that my future expectations of earnings is in line with = general=20
market expectations, my opinion is more important = to me. I=20 also
monitor the up/down ratio a lot closer = than RS=20 once I own a
stock.

I will sell a stock whose actual results fall below = my=20
expectations even when RS remains well above 80. = And I will=20 hold
a stock whose actual results meet or = exceed my=20 expectations even
when its RS falls under = 80.=20

- ------=_NextPart_000_007E_01C0FDCF.28877F00-- - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 25 Jun 2001 23:54:39 -0400 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: SPTN (was Re: [CANSLIM] Unusual volume spikes - prelude to a price move ...._) Ian, The fallacy in your argument, in my opinion, is that this grocery store chain is already trading with a trailing PE of 11, and has an earnings forecast of 7% for this year. It's historic PE trading range is 4 to 11, so it already is at the high of what I perceive to be earnings expectations (unless there is a sleeper issue only discovered thru due diligence). With the earnings forecast tho, and the historically narrow profit margins of grocery stores, I see no logical explanation for the heavy volume and price moves in the past several months. Thus, I would be too skeptical and likely smell a skunk in the woodpile. It's a good chart example of what you are saying, but a bad stock to try and explain it. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net AIM: TexWorley - ----- Original Message ----- From: Ian To: Sent: Monday, June 25, 2001 2:18 PM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Unusual volume spikes - prelude to a price move .... If a stock has been in a strong uptrend, and stronger volume fails to push it up, I consider that distribution. If the stock is basing in a narrow trading range, and fundamentals/recent results suggest that the price 'should' go up, I look for strong volume surges within a flat base as a possible prelude to a move up. This only gives me confidence when the stocks are trading near their highs, but have been basing for a while - but again, I am already 'assuming' that the stock will go into an uptrend based on fundamentals/valuation, and look for volume interest to confirm my initial assumption. Using SPTN just for example, the initial volume spike in early May pushed the price up to $13. The higher volume was sustained (after almost no volume for 8 months), which, together with fundamentals, made me think that resistance would eventually be broken. The June 06 spike followed 18 trading days in a narrow price band. The volume spike that day, IMO, helped to break that resistance. Ian - ----- Original Message ----- From: Fanus To: Sent: Monday, June 25, 2001 10:34 AM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Unusual volume spikes - prelude to a price move .... I thought high volume days without any significant price movement is known as churning which is a negative sign? Where do you make the distinction between a good risk/reward entry and churning? - - Fanus "Ian" wrote: > Hi all: > > I have another example of an unusual spike in volume predicting a price jump > in a generally strong stock with good fundamentals and outlook. > > I have an entry in my notebook from June 06 showing an extremely high jump > in the volume for SPTN - 400,000+. The price didn't budge - staying in a > tight range around $13. IMHO, these days act to take out resistance in a > stealth manner. SPTN is suddenly up today for no apparant reason, to around > $15.60. > > Examine SPTN's chart - IMHO, in a flat market, these kind of 'out of the > blue' spikes are better risk/reward entries than pure breakout trigger > points. > > Again, fear of 'M' kept me out even as I saw the price trend pennies higher > in the face of an ugly market during the last 2 weeks. I should have known > better. > > > > Ian > > > - > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 26 Jun 2001 00:02:30 -0400 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Unusual volume spikes - prelude to a price move .... A large block of stock moving from one pair of institutional hands to another is bullish, it means the shares were not dumped onto the retail market and depressed the price. And it also likely means that block is now in stronger hands, since they just bot it. A second reason for an unusual volume spike without price movement or news is that a brokerage house started quietly accumulating for its clients, or a market maker started building inventory preparatory to presenting it to their retail brokers. A third reason is similar, that an institutional client told its favorite brokerage house to buy a qtr or half million shares up to a certain average price. Often times, that house will place the shares during each day into a house acct, then sell the block to the institutional at an average for that day. Easiest way to detect this is by examining volume and block trading minute by minute. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net AIM: TexWorley - ----- Original Message ----- From: Tangen, Eric To: Sent: Monday, June 25, 2001 2:57 PM Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] Unusual volume spikes - prelude to a price move .... A lurker posts.... High volume one day spikes (like > 400%)with no price movement are long term bullish in a long flat base of a small cap stock prior to its first real breakout. The ultimate breakout may not come until weeks or even months later. I've have a feeling that this represents an institution to institution sale of a large block of shares at a price the two parties agree to without going through normal channels of the market makers. Does anyone else have any further insight? Churning action takes place in a price plateau after a nice price advance. Eric Tangen - -----Original Message----- From: Fanus [mailto:fanus@usa.net] Sent: Monday, June 25, 2001 12:35 PM To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Unusual volume spikes - prelude to a price move .... I thought high volume days without any significant price movement is known as churning which is a negative sign? Where do you make the distinction between a good risk/reward entry and churning? - - Fanus "Ian" wrote: > Hi all: > > I have another example of an unusual spike in volume predicting a price jump > in a generally strong stock with good fundamentals and outlook. > > I have an entry in my notebook from June 06 showing an extremely high jump > in the volume for SPTN - 400,000+. The price didn't budge - staying in a > tight range around $13. IMHO, these days act to take out resistance in a > stealth manner. SPTN is suddenly up today for no apparant reason, to around > $15.60. > > Examine SPTN's chart - IMHO, in a flat market, these kind of 'out of the > blue' spikes are better risk/reward entries than pure breakout trigger > points. > > Again, fear of 'M' kept me out even as I saw the price trend pennies higher > in the face of an ugly market during the last 2 weeks. I should have known > better. > > > > Ian > > > - > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 26 Jun 2001 00:09:37 -0400 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Re: (CANSLIM) DGO List/Weekly Scan/SRDX I believe institutional money managers, whether mutual funds or pension funds or the capital holdings of banks or insurance companies, routinely exchange info. This is even true of different mutual fund managers within the same family. However, they do so after, not before, they execute their trade whether a buy or sell. This can easily cause a follow on ripple effect (head stampede) whether buying or selling. This is why I am not comfortable in stocks with significant mutual fund or institutional ownership. If they don't already own it, then the only likely "herd effect" is buying, since most funds cannot do significant shorting. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net AIM: TexWorley - ----- Original Message ----- From: Chris McShaffrey To: Sent: Monday, June 25, 2001 10:33 PM Subject: [CANSLIM] Re: (CANSLIM) DGO List/Weekly Scan/SRDX Did anyone see any news that caused such a drop? (or does it really matter?) I have been unable to find anything. The stock will be added to the S&P Small Cap 600 which might have caused the quick return. Do you think the "institutions" share buy/sell info? Does ABC tell call XYZ and say hey - I'm selling/buying 200,000 shares of SRDX today? Or are "The Big Guys" pretty guarded about their buy/sells? Chris Mc - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 25 Jun 2001 22:33:26 -0700 From: "Ian" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Re:shorting On the contrary, the man considered by some to be the greatest trader that ever lived - Jesse Livermore - made his greatest fortunes shorting. He made $100,000,000 by shorting after the great bull market of the 20's. I would recommend that anyone who is interested read 'Reminiscences of a Stock Operator', by Edwin Lefevre. That being said, the risks can be high, but they are not unlike the risks of an overnight wipeout in a long position (see SYMC for a recent example). IMHO, when shorting, it is absolutely essential to have tight stops set and never to short until serious overhead resistance has already been established, and the path of lease resistance is ALREADY down. Many people have lost a fortune shorting 'expensive' stocks that were going up in bull markets (my favourite example - many of them were perfect CANSLIM long candidates while going up! My favourite example of this is Red Hat - look at the 2 year chart: http://www.bigcharts.com/intchart/frames/main.asp?time=9&freq=1&compidx=aaaa a%3A0&comp=NO_SYMBOL_CHOSEN&ma=6&maval=13%2C50%2C200&uf=0&lf=268435456&lf2=0 &lf3=0&type=2&style=320&size=3&sid=0&o_symb=rhat&startdate=&enddate=&show=&s ymb=rhat&draw.x=43&draw.y=17 I know of people who shorted RHAT right out of the gate (between $40 and $80) 'knowing' that it was insanely overpriced and would eventually be in the single digits (or pennies). Sadly for them, it went to $300 before collapsing, and most early-game shorters were forced to cover for a substantial loss. Firm overhead resistance wasn't established until late January 2000, with a major double-top, and a declining stock in what was at the time a raging bull market still. The most successful traders I know of are all equally comfortable from the short or the long side - they are trend followers who follow the path of least resistance - they are also quick to exit any position where they are found wrong. JMHO. Ian - ----- Original Message ----- From: Bill Staton To: Sent: Monday, June 25, 2001 4:14 PM Subject: [CANSLIM] Re:shorting > > > > > Who can recommend some good books on shorting, or investment books that deal > with shorting? I have enough technical analysis books that deal with > this...I'm looking for something that deals more with fundamentals, in > considerably more detail than WON does in "How to Make Money..." > > John > > > >> > Shorting the market is about as dangerous a thing as you can pursue. After > all, you can lose 100% of your money. Wealthy people, truly wealthy people, > don't short. > > > > Bill Staton > Money Management / Speeches / Lifetime Riches Seminars > > Not sure if you need a Money Manager? Take this quick quiz > and find out: http://www.billstaton.com/quiz.htm > > - > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 25 Jun 2001 22:39:19 -0700 From: "Ian" Subject: Re: SPTN (was Re: [CANSLIM] Unusual volume spikes - prelude to a price move ...._) Agreed - another reason I didn't buy it and never recommended it. It is NOT a situation that I see very frequently, so when I do, I make a note of it. I have only observed this pattern 3 times in recent months, and in all 3 cases the stock made a substantial move upwards. The first two were ICLR and SCOT. I just mentioned SPTN because it was the most recent, and a very good chart example. Ian - ----- Original Message ----- From: Tom Worley To: Sent: Monday, June 25, 2001 8:54 PM Subject: SPTN (was Re: [CANSLIM] Unusual volume spikes - prelude to a price move ...._) > Ian, > > The fallacy in your argument, in my opinion, is that this grocery > store chain is already trading with a trailing PE of 11, and has > an earnings forecast of 7% for this year. It's historic PE > trading range is 4 to 11, so it already is at the high of what I > perceive to be earnings expectations (unless there is a sleeper > issue only discovered thru due diligence). With the earnings > forecast tho, and the historically narrow profit margins of > grocery stores, I see no logical explanation for the heavy volume > and price moves in the past several months. Thus, I would be too > skeptical and likely smell a skunk in the woodpile. > > It's a good chart example of what you are saying, but a bad stock > to try and explain it. > > Tom Worley > stkguru@netside.net > AIM: TexWorley > > ----- Original Message ----- > From: Ian > To: > Sent: Monday, June 25, 2001 2:18 PM > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Unusual volume spikes - prelude to a price > move .... > > > If a stock has been in a strong uptrend, and stronger volume > fails to push > it up, I consider that distribution. > > If the stock is basing in a narrow trading range, and > fundamentals/recent > results suggest that the price 'should' go up, I look for strong > volume > surges within a flat base as a possible prelude to a move up. > This only > gives me confidence when the stocks are trading near their highs, > but have > been basing for a while - but again, I am already 'assuming' that > the stock > will go into an uptrend based on fundamentals/valuation, and look > for volume > interest to confirm my initial assumption. > > Using SPTN just for example, the initial volume spike in early > May pushed > the price up to $13. The higher volume was sustained (after > almost no volume > for 8 months), which, together with fundamentals, made me think > that > resistance would eventually be broken. The June 06 spike followed > 18 trading > days in a narrow price band. The volume spike that day, IMO, > helped to > break that resistance. > > > Ian > > > ----- Original Message ----- > From: Fanus > To: > Sent: Monday, June 25, 2001 10:34 AM > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Unusual volume spikes - prelude to a price > move .... > > > I thought high volume days without any significant price movement > is known > as > churning which is a negative sign? Where do you make the > distinction > between > a good risk/reward entry and churning? > > - Fanus > > > "Ian" wrote: > > Hi all: > > > > I have another example of an unusual spike in volume predicting > a price > jump > > in a generally strong stock with good fundamentals and outlook. > > > > I have an entry in my notebook from June 06 showing an > extremely high jump > > in the volume for SPTN - 400,000+. The price didn't budge - > staying in a > > tight range around $13. IMHO, these days act to take out > resistance in a > > stealth manner. SPTN is suddenly up today for no apparant > reason, to > around > > $15.60. > > > > Examine SPTN's chart - IMHO, in a flat market, these kind of > 'out of the > > blue' spikes are better risk/reward entries than pure breakout > trigger > > points. > > > > Again, fear of 'M' kept me out even as I saw the price trend > pennies > higher > > in the face of an ugly market during the last 2 weeks. I should > have known > > better. > > > > > > > > Ian > > > > > > - > > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" > > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. > > > - > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. > > > - > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. > > > > - > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 26 Jun 2001 08:32:42 -0700 From: "Perry Stanfield" Subject: [CANSLIM] test test - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 26 Jun 2001 15:58:22 GMT From: "Boyd" Subject: [CANSLIM] RLRN Is RLRN breaking out? Norm - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 26 Jun 2001 09:12:32 -0700 From: Tim Fisher Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] RLRN Yes, is the short answer. I bot it early when I saw the vol, short double bottom base, risky entry, uncertain M, would not recommend anyone following my lead... On 08:58 AM 6/26/01, Boyd Said: >Is RLRN breaking out? > >Norm > >- >-To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" >-In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or >-"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. Tim Fisher Ore-Rock-On and Pacific Fishery Biologists WWW Sites Tim@OreRockOn.com WWW: http://OreRockOn.com See naked fish and rocks! - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ End of canslim-digest V2 #1530 ****************************** To unsubscribe to canslim-digest, send an email to "majordomo@xmission.com" with "unsubscribe canslim-digest" in the body of the message. For information on digests or retrieving files and old messages send "help" to the same address. Do not use quotes in your message.