From: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com (canslim-digest) To: canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Subject: canslim-digest V2 #1537 Reply-To: canslim Sender: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Errors-To: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Precedence: bulk Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable X-No-Archive: yes canslim-digest Sunday, July 1 2001 Volume 02 : Number 1537 In this issue: Re: [CANSLIM] position sizing Re: [CANSLIM] position sizing Re: [CANSLIM] Is anyone watching this???? !!!!! Re: [CANSLIM] Weekly Scan [CANSLIM] Leader's List [CANSLIM] Weekend Review [CANSLIM] Final Hour of NASDAQ trading Re: [CANSLIM] Final Hour of NASDAQ trading [CANSLIM] DGO List ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Date: Fri, 29 Jun 2001 21:12:44 -0700 (PDT) From: Dave Cameron Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] position sizing All, This is an excellent article, IMO. WON has often said that you should concentrate your investments in a small number of stocks. This article doesn't exactly contradict it (but leads in that direction somewhat) - but it demonstrates the importance of making small bets in each position unless you have strong probabilistic reasoning to assume that your reward potential is much more likely than your downside. I'd recommend reading it. A note of caution - since it was written by a Swede and translated into English - I found a few spelling errors which changed the meaning subtly. Usually they are not a big deal - except I found I had to concentrate more. As an example, about half the time the word "losing" was spelled correctly - the other half of the time it was spelled "loosing". Since "loosing" is a proper word with a different meaning than "losing", I got confused. The word "break" was misspelled as "brake" - which confused me for a minute as well. Good catch, Andy! Dave - --- Andy Westphal wrote: > From the latest turtletrader email > > "Great trading involves proper "bet" size. There is a correct way > to > bet on each trade. Recently we received a thesis paper from the > Department of Psychology, Uppsala University, Stockholm School of > Economics. The paper involves an experiment whereby some used > money > management or bet size and others did not. You can download the > free > thesis paper above -- and see the results." > > > http://www.turtletrader.com/position.pdf > ===== Dave Cameron dfcameron@yahoo.com __________________________________________________ Do You Yahoo!? Get personalized email addresses from Yahoo! Mail http://personal.mail.yahoo.com/ - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 29 Jun 2001 21:32:20 -0700 (PDT) From: Dave Cameron Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] position sizing Oops!!! Now _I_ made a mistake. I still think my comments below are valid in the sense it is an excellent article, and a good lesson to many. However, in the interest of cautioning on spelling errors subtly changing the meaning, I erred in that "loosing" is not a word. When I saw (see) it, I think "loosening" in my mind, as contrasted to "losing". This could be just me... Apologies. Dave - --- Dave Cameron wrote: > All, > > This is an excellent article, IMO. > > WON has often said that you should concentrate your investments in > a > small number of stocks. This article doesn't exactly contradict > it > (but leads in that direction somewhat) - but it demonstrates the > importance of making small bets in each position unless you have > strong probabilistic reasoning to assume that your reward potential > is much more likely than your downside. > > I'd recommend reading it. > > A note of caution - since it was written by a Swede and translated > into English - I found a few spelling errors which changed the > meaning subtly. Usually they are not a big deal - except I found > I > had to concentrate more. As an example, about half the time the > word "losing" was spelled correctly - the other half of the time it > was spelled "loosing". Since "loosing" is a proper word with a > different meaning than "losing", I got confused. The word "break" > was misspelled as "brake" - which confused me for a minute as well. > > Good catch, Andy! > > Dave > --- Andy Westphal wrote: > > From the latest turtletrader email > > > > "Great trading involves proper "bet" size. There is a correct > way > > to > > bet on each trade. Recently we received a thesis paper from the > > Department of Psychology, Uppsala University, Stockholm School > of > > Economics. The paper involves an experiment whereby some used > > money > > management or bet size and others did not. You can download the > > free > > thesis paper above -- and see the results." > > > > > > http://www.turtletrader.com/position.pdf > > > > > ===== > Dave Cameron > dfcameron@yahoo.com > > __________________________________________________ > Do You Yahoo!? > Get personalized email addresses from Yahoo! Mail > http://personal.mail.yahoo.com/ > > - > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ===== Dave Cameron dfcameron@yahoo.com __________________________________________________ Do You Yahoo!? Get personalized email addresses from Yahoo! Mail http://personal.mail.yahoo.com/ - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 29 Jun 2001 15:57:26 -0700 From: "Ian" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Is anyone watching this???? !!!!! One could have made money by putting lowball buys and highball sells in illiquid stocks that get filled by people who think they are putting in 'market' orders for Monday morning. Some people got fills in ACLNF for $30 that would not have filled during market hours. SCOT sold 2000 for $12.69 (a $17 stock). TBIO traded at $19 (a $11 stock). Alternatively, shorting the high-volume crazy runs has a huge probability of being successful - ITXC is a great example - a $5 stock that was pushed to $7 in the hour. Also, you could profit from selling existing positions in stocks that were being manically pushed - or buying shares in something you liked if it was dropping unnaturally. Traders who entered new positions are assuming that these stocks revert to their 'normal' prices on Monday in order for these profits to materialize. It is my opinion that that is a reasonable assumption - but who knows? Ian - ----- Original Message ----- From: Fanus To: Sent: Friday, June 29, 2001 3:15 PM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Is anyone watching this???? !!!!! I know this is a little off topic, but I am curious how you mean "...Those that did were taking obscene advantage of the system". What is the big difference between the NAZ open for an hour longer versus normal extended after-hours trading? I am not sure what advantage someone would have for running a stock up if only a few people know about it? Would you mind ellobarating on your statements? I am somewhat confused. - - Fanus Spencer48@aol.com wrote: > Ian: > > I just looked in Yahoo, and apparently NASDAQ had to stop trading for > the 2nd day in a row (I had not known about the first day-even though I read > IBD). This is the URL where I found the article: > http://dailynews.yahoo.com/h/nm/20010629/bs/markets_stocks_dc_2724.html . > I wonder how IBD and WON will treat today: as a follow through to > yesterday (volume was about 100,000 more), or as a question mark (the 100,000 > came on being open for an hour more). It is interesting: why would > institutions (I'm assuming only large traders-as you describe it-had access > to NASDAQ) run stocks up? Were institutions buying from institutions, and if > so, why would some institutions buy and others sell? > Also, could you be more specific: What do you mean by "the markets were > only OPEN to a few people...?" Do you mean, that some could buy/sell, and > some couldn't? > > jans > > > > In a message dated 6/29/2001 5:12:04 PM Eastern Daylight Time, > ianstm@home.com writes: > > << This is totally bizarre. The NAZ was open for an extra hours, but many > systems were shut out, and many people didn't know it. Those that did were > taking obscene advantage of the system. How can it be allowed? This kind of > craziness could throw the whole markets integrity into question > . > I bought some MGEN this morning at $12, and they ran it up to $17 between > 4:00 and 5:00 when the markets were 'open', but only open to a few people. I > was watching someone pump up ITXC 40% (from $5 to $7 after hours). They also > pumped up ICTG to crazy levels on big volume. Some got driven down. > >> > > - > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Sat, 30 Jun 2001 06:17:13 -0700 (PDT) From: SRP Singh Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Weekly Scan Hi David, Please excuse my ignorance. Could you provide some details about your weekly scan. Regards, SRP Singh - --- David Squires wrote: > > ATTACHMENT part 2 application/vnd.ms-excel name=Weekly Scan.xls __________________________________________________ Do You Yahoo!? Get personalized email addresses from Yahoo! Mail http://personal.mail.yahoo.com/ - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Sat, 30 Jun 2001 12:26:29 -0600 From: esetser Subject: [CANSLIM] Leader's List Here's my Leader's List based on this weekend's data. I start with stocks in the DG books ranked 75/75 or better, GRS of 70 or better, AND total ADV $ of at least $500K. (I use $500K as an absolute minimum but prefer stocks at least 2-3 times higher in average trading.) I take that list and assign a composite rank (my own formula) based on each stock's EPS, RS, SMR, A/D, and GRS. This list is the top 150 or so stocks based on composite score. The list shown is ordered by composite score (best at the top). This is intended as a start to a watch list, but please do your own DD for both technical and fundamental characteristics. Standard disclaimer - I presently own IGT and DVA from the list. MNTG TARO SFCC RLRN IGT GPI PENN PPDI PDII DGX SHFL USPH AMSGA AMSGB CPRT UOPX EBAY RCGI USLB HDL SP HRB CLKB TKCI HIBB RCII CKP COLM NYCB ROOM FIC BBBY JILL GRTS SERO FCN ESI JAKK MOVI ICTG EPIQ MATW PECS IHSC GTRC MMS TOO AMWD KMX RCOM ANF COCO ASCA ADVP TTWO MWBX SLOT ULAB RDY WMS JNY DRMD DYII KKD CRYP ICLR STL DZTK SRZ LNCR CHS ACF APOL CNTL SLMC RECN BBY FRED MDCI IVX SRNA AEOS DIAN ADVS CHBS AMHC LOW HOTT DFXI AZO WON CHIC RHB AN BBOX GOSHA SRCE NVDA CCBT DCOM INDB ALLY KVA STRA HKF EXBD WTFC COH PRX EASI EDMC CORS BASI MGL CCMP EFX FEIC TSS URS NFB WTSLA KLAC NVLS KNSY AVRT LH NDN NAUT SCFS SIB BPFH PLNR DVA NCOG SCRI CRY RMD HB CNJ HET LE ADSK BEV CACOA FMN SBMC HOC COO SNV UCOR SPTN TGX APPB ACDO - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Sat, 30 Jun 2001 14:37:34 -0700 From: "Perry Stanfield" Subject: [CANSLIM] Weekend Review Does anyone know why yesterday's paper had such a skimpy list of stocks in the weekend review? Surely there are more than 100 IBD stocks within 15% of their 52 wk high........... Perry Stanfield - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Sat, 30 Jun 2001 15:25:00 -0700 (PDT) From: Dave Cameron Subject: [CANSLIM] Final Hour of NASDAQ trading Well... my approach was to look at the 1-day chart of the NAZ stocks in which I'm invested. I set the frequency at 5-minute intervals. From this, I'm convinced that the closing price is unreliable. As an example, look at LNCR (a CANSLIM stock which I own). The chart (either using Bigcharts or Yahoo) shows a series of trades between 32.00 and 33.02 throughout the day. The lowest trade prior to 3:00 EDT was roughly 32.15 (from looking at the graph). Yet, the closing price on Bigcharts, Yahoo, and IBD all show 30.01 Neither Yahoo nor Bigcharts shows a trade at that price. Both show the last sale at 32.22. (Both stop at 4:00, it seems). Yahoo shows a bid/ask spread of 22.00/36.00 !?! (If this were valid, the market maker could get rich quickly!) I logged into my online brokerage account to get a quote. They list the last sale at 30.01, but the close at 32.22 (the last sale coming AFTER the close). They list the bid/ask at 30.50/30.89 (much more believable - but both well below the "closing price". Hence... there's no way I'm entering ANY orders, or believing ANY prices for Nasdaq stocks until a while after trading resumes on Monday. I don't trust breakouts, breakdowns, charts, etc. I planned to do a fair amount of research on potential buy candidates. I am only doing this on exchange-listed stocks this weekend. And, I'm even being cautious here for a different reason; namely the last day of the quarter is not very reliable for trading. Mutual funds make moves on the last day for window dressing. ===== Dave Cameron dfcameron@yahoo.com __________________________________________________ Do You Yahoo!? Get personalized email addresses from Yahoo! Mail http://personal.mail.yahoo.com/ - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Sat, 30 Jun 2001 18:56:45 -0400 From: "Dan Forant" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Final Hour of NASDAQ trading Valid points. Will be interesting to see what opening prices are with the Nasdaq goof up and last day institution selling/buying. I have actually set up an alert on my web based check pay system for the final trading day of the quarter to be cautious. DanF - ----- Original Message ----- From: "Dave Cameron" To: Sent: Saturday, June 30, 2001 6:25 PM Subject: [CANSLIM] Final Hour of NASDAQ trading > Well... my approach was to look at the 1-day chart of the NAZ stocks > in which I'm invested. I set the frequency at 5-minute intervals. > From this, I'm convinced that the closing price is unreliable. > > As an example, look at LNCR (a CANSLIM stock which I own). The > chart (either using Bigcharts or Yahoo) shows a series of trades > between 32.00 and 33.02 throughout the day. The lowest trade prior > to 3:00 EDT was roughly 32.15 (from looking at the graph). > > Yet, the closing price on Bigcharts, Yahoo, and IBD all show 30.01 > Neither Yahoo nor Bigcharts shows a trade at that price. Both show > the last sale at 32.22. (Both stop at 4:00, it seems). > > Yahoo shows a bid/ask spread of 22.00/36.00 !?! (If this were > valid, the market maker could get rich quickly!) > > I logged into my online brokerage account to get a quote. They list > the last sale at 30.01, but the close at 32.22 (the last sale coming > AFTER the close). They list the bid/ask at 30.50/30.89 (much more > believable - but both well below the "closing price". > > Hence... there's no way I'm entering ANY orders, or believing ANY > prices for Nasdaq stocks until a while after trading resumes on > Monday. I don't trust breakouts, breakdowns, charts, etc. I > planned to do a fair amount of research on potential buy candidates. > I am only doing this on exchange-listed stocks this weekend. And, > I'm even being cautious here for a different reason; namely the last > day of the quarter is not very reliable for trading. Mutual funds > make moves on the last day for window dressing. > > > > ===== > Dave Cameron > dfcameron@yahoo.com > > __________________________________________________ > Do You Yahoo!? > Get personalized email addresses from Yahoo! Mail > http://personal.mail.yahoo.com/ > > - > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. > - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Sun, 1 Jul 2001 03:50:26 -0400 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: [CANSLIM] DGO List This is a multi-part message in MIME format. - ------=_NextPart_000_0017_01C101E0.F70B4EA0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable NOTE: Due to Friday's strange trading on many stocks in the extended = hour of trading, I am disregarding extreme price moves on Friday on = NASDAQ stocks. List is up this week at 198, last week at 170. Before that it was 202 = and 228. Overall "M" is looking like a bottom, at least for techs. My = impression of the "confession" season (earnings warnings) was that it = was far milder than last quarter, and with much fewer companies making a = comment. I suspect that Q2 actual results will generally exceed = expectations. The Feds did cut, as I expected, a qtr pt off rates, and = left the bias in place. Expectations for now are for another qtr pt cut = at the August meeting. I give this less than a 25% probability of = happening then, or anytime this year. The next six months will see the = full impact of the five half point cuts in the Fed rate, and an = increasingly improved consumer sentiment. It will also see the fear of = inflation rearing its ugly head once again, and worries over a rate = hike, rather than a cut. =20 This original list from DGO consists of those stocks in the Daily Graphs = books (roughly 2,800) that as of Friday had both RS and EPS of 80 or = better. Additionally, they must have been at or within 5% of the 12 = month high during the prior week. In my review of this overall list, I = am only focusing on the recent (6 months) chart patterns.=20 This review of the overall list is solely intended to identify stocks = with good CANSLIM qualities, using authentic WON sourced data, that are = showing some kind of constructive chart formation. The idea is to = present some candidates for member's watch list, not to suggest they are = presently a "buy" candidate. No due diligence has been done. My own = personal bias against certain industries is largely ignored in the = review. As always, my shorthand notation is Bx where "B" means a "B"ase of "x" = weeks, IMO. So, a B5 notation means I see a base of 5 weeks duration. I = am using the word "base" to mean a flat line, not an overall pattern = such as a cup and handle (c&h) or a double bottom. Where I see a = specific pattern, I will say so. LLUR =3D Lower Left Upper Right BZH - double bottom, building a base below the high ESI - B4 PENN - B3 AGM - rally on volume back to the B4 MKT - high handle on a short, shallow cup, didn't penetrate 50 DMA QUIX - sloppy B7 WTFC - B3, secondary pending GCO - B3 HRB - B3+ STRA - B2 BBBY - B6 CITZ - B7, b/o Fri?? SOL - 4 week saucer NRIM - B3 UHCO - tight B7, low priced AZO - B2 RBNC - B8 HTHR - B3 CLJ - B6 BOKF - B8 HRL - B4 Happy hunting, Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net AIM: TexWorley - ------=_NextPart_000_0017_01C101E0.F70B4EA0 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
NOTE: Due to=20 Friday's strange trading on many stocks in the extended hour of trading, = I am=20 disregarding extreme price moves on Friday on NASDAQ=20 stocks.
 
List = is up this=20 week at 198, last week at 170. Before that it was 202 and=20 228. Overall "M" is looking like a bottom, at least for = techs. My=20 impression of the "confession" season (earnings warnings) was that it = was far=20 milder than last quarter, and with much fewer companies making a = comment. I=20 suspect that Q2 actual results will generally exceed expectations. The = Feds did=20 cut, as I expected, a qtr pt off rates, and left the bias in place. = Expectations=20 for now are for another qtr pt cut at the August meeting. I give this = less than=20 a 25% probability of happening then, or anytime this year. The next six = months=20 will see the full impact of the five half point cuts in the Fed rate, = and an=20 increasingly improved consumer sentiment. It will also see the fear of = inflation=20 rearing its ugly head once again, and worries over a rate hike, rather = than a=20 cut.
 
This original list from DGO consists of = those stocks in=20 the Daily Graphs books (roughly 2,800) that as of Friday had both RS and = EPS of=20 80 or better.  Additionally, they must have been at or within 5% of = the 12=20 month high during the prior week. In my review of this overall list, I = am only=20 focusing on the recent (6 months) chart patterns.
 
This review of the overall list is solely intended = to identify=20 stocks with good CANSLIM qualities, using authentic WON sourced data, = that are=20 showing some kind of constructive chart formation. The idea is to = present=20 some candidates for member's watch list, not to suggest they are = presently a=20 "buy" candidate. No due diligence has been done. My own personal bias = against=20 certain industries is largely ignored in the=20 review.
 
As always, my shorthand notation is = Bx where "B"=20 means a "B"ase of "x" weeks, IMO. So, a B5 notation means I see a base = of 5=20 weeks duration. I am using the word "base" to mean a flat line, not an = overall=20 pattern such as a cup and handle (c&h) or a double bottom. Where I = see a=20 specific pattern, I will say so.
 
LLUR =3D Lower Left Upper = Right
 
=
BZH - double bottom, building a base below the=20 high
ESI - B4
PENN - B3
AGM - rally on volume back to the B4
MKT - high handle on a short, shallow cup, didn't = penetrate 50=20 DMA
QUIX - sloppy B7
WTFC - B3, secondary pending
GCO - B3
HRB - B3+
STRA - B2
BBBY - B6
CITZ - B7, b/o Fri??
SOL - 4 week saucer
NRIM - B3
UHCO - tight B7, low priced
AZO - B2
RBNC - B8
HTHR - B3
CLJ - B6
BOKF - B8
HRL - B4
 
Happy hunting,
 
Tom Worley
stkguru@netside.net
AIM:=20 TexWorley
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