From: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com (canslim-digest) To: canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Subject: canslim-digest V2 #1929 Reply-To: canslim Sender: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Errors-To: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Precedence: bulk Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable X-No-Archive: yes canslim-digest Tuesday, December 11 2001 Volume 02 : Number 1929 In this issue: Re: [CANSLIM] Institutional Ownership [CANSLIM] ALLY Re: [CANSLIM] ALLY Re: INTV (was [CANSLIM] ALLY ) Re: CACI (was: [CANSLIM] ALLY ) Re: [CANSLIM] ALLY Re: [CANSLIM] ALLY Re: [CANSLIM] ALLY [CANSLIM] buying before the pivot point Re: [CANSLIM] ALLY Re: [CANSLIM] ALLY Re: [CANSLIM] Institutional Ownership AW: [CANSLIM] Institutional Ownership [CANSLIM] Analysis on Industry Groups and their technical patterns Re: [CANSLIM] Analysis on Industry Groups and their technical patterns ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Date: Tue, 11 Dec 2001 08:26:29 -0600 From: "Katherine Malm" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Institutional Ownership This is a multi-part message in MIME format. - ------=_NextPart_000_01A9_01C1821D.8823E200 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable >>scan for a limit of 0% to 10% It seems the default for the scans is >=3D and <=3D. Because it won't = allow fractions I can't even dummy a scan for <10 by entering = <=3D9.9999.=20 So, if I want to create one set with >=3D0 and <10, another with >=3D10. = No can do. Very silly. Means either you leave out everything between 9 = and 10, or you include 10 in both sets. No programmer in their right = mind would overlook such a problem. Katherine ----- Original Message -----=20 From: Tom Worley=20 To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20 Sent: Tuesday, December 11, 2001 5:51 AM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Institutional Ownership Hi Katherine, In the filter for the DGO beta scans, I believe if you want to scan = for a limit of 0% to 10%, you only need enter the upper limit and leave = the lower limit blank. Then it will scan for everything up to the upper = limit. - ------=_NextPart_000_01A9_01C1821D.8823E200 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
>>scan for a=20 limit of 0% to 10%
 
It seems the default for the scans is >=3D and = <=3D. Because=20 it won't allow fractions I can't even dummy a scan for <10 by = entering=20 <=3D9.9999.
 
So, if I want to create one set with >=3D0 and = <10,=20 another with >=3D10. No can do. Very silly. Means either you leave = out=20 everything between 9 and 10, or you include 10 in both sets. No = programmer in=20 their right mind would overlook such a problem.
 
Katherine
----- Original Message -----
From:=20 Tom = Worley=20
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=
Sent: Tuesday, December 11, = 2001 5:51=20 AM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] = Institutional=20 Ownership

Hi Katherine,
 
In the filter for the DGO beta scans, I believe if = you want=20 to scan for a limit of 0% to 10%, you only need enter the upper limit = and=20 leave the lower limit blank. Then it will scan for everything up to = the upper=20 limit.
 
 
- ------=_NextPart_000_01A9_01C1821D.8823E200-- - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: 11 Dec 2001 08:48:46 -0800 From: "Tim Fisher" Subject: [CANSLIM] ALLY B/O this AM. Also CACI looking good altho this one is extended. Discl: I own both. INTV: toilet-bound. Tim Fisher Ore-ROCK-On Rockhounding Web Site Pacific Fishery Biologists Information mailto:tim@OreRockOn.com WWW http://OreRockOn.com - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 11 Dec 2001 10:22:48 -0600 From: "Katherine Malm" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] ALLY Tim, Caution on ALLY. Rest of group is showing signs of wear. GTK gapped down yesterday on earnings. Might want to get a feel by flipping through the rest of the charts: GTK, PENN, MNTG, MGAM, IGT, SLOT, , SHFL, ISLE, BHWK, ASCA, HET, CHDN, MCG, MBG,WMS, AZR, ALHY 10-Dec-01 Briefing.com 08:03 ET GTECH Holdings (GTK) 46.61: Reports Q3 net of $0.73 a share, $0.02 better than consensus, vs yr-ago EPS of $0.53. For Q4, co expects EPS to be in line with previous guidance of $0.81-$0.86 (consensus $0.86). Co authorizes repurchase of up to $75 mln. Also announces plan to purchase up to $150 mln of existing debt through a $150 mln private placement of Convertible Debentures. Katherine - ----- Original Message ----- From: "Tim Fisher" To: Sent: Tuesday, December 11, 2001 10:48 AM Subject: [CANSLIM] ALLY > B/O this AM. Also CACI looking good altho this one is extended. Discl: I > own both. INTV: toilet-bound. > > Tim Fisher > Ore-ROCK-On Rockhounding Web Site > Pacific Fishery Biologists Information > mailto:tim@OreRockOn.com > WWW http://OreRockOn.com > > > - > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 11 Dec 2001 10:28:23 -0600 From: "Katherine Malm" Subject: Re: INTV (was [CANSLIM] ALLY ) Caution on INTV. Gap down on updated earnings guidance. Low vol bounce off 14 or any break below pivot and I'd say sayonara. Katherine - ----- Original Message ----- From: "Tim Fisher" To: Sent: Tuesday, December 11, 2001 10:48 AM Subject: [CANSLIM] ALLY > B/O this AM. Also CACI looking good altho this one is extended. Discl: I > own both. INTV: toilet-bound. > > Tim Fisher > Ore-ROCK-On Rockhounding Web Site > Pacific Fishery Biologists Information > mailto:tim@OreRockOn.com > WWW http://OreRockOn.com > > > - > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 11 Dec 2001 10:31:24 -0600 From: "Katherine Malm" Subject: Re: CACI (was: [CANSLIM] ALLY ) Caution on CACI. Tail on 12/10 may mean this one runs back down to support nearer the 50dMA pronto. May be supported today because EASI gave good numbers. Katherine - ----- Original Message ----- From: "Tim Fisher" To: Sent: Tuesday, December 11, 2001 10:48 AM Subject: [CANSLIM] ALLY > B/O this AM. Also CACI looking good altho this one is extended. Discl: I > own both. INTV: toilet-bound. > > Tim Fisher > Ore-ROCK-On Rockhounding Web Site > Pacific Fishery Biologists Information > mailto:tim@OreRockOn.com > WWW http://OreRockOn.com > > > - > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 11 Dec 2001 09:32:08 -0800 From: "Bill Triffet" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] ALLY - ----- Original Message ----- From: "Tim Fisher" To: Sent: Tuesday, December 11, 2001 8:48 AM Subject: [CANSLIM] ALLY > B/O this AM. Also CACI looking good altho this one is extended. Discl: I > own both. INTV: toilet-bound. Tim, I'd be real careful on ALLY as it's had quite a run up till now. If you've owned it for a while your in great shape. Also, I don't see a real base to buy off now IMHO. Agreed on INTV ( I got flushed on that one). I'm also watching MOVI and ASIA dump. Guess these are the usual IBD pull-backs? (g) Really drives home the point to get in right at the pivot. - -Bill Triffet - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: 11 Dec 2001 09:53:38 -0800 From: "Tim Fisher" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] ALLY Of these, I track PENN, MNTG, IGT, SLOT, SHFL. I like most of their charts, and have owned a few of them in the past. If I look at the charts I track, it seems like many are setting up for breakouts or have just broken out. GTK wasn't CANSLIM anyway (IMO). At 10:22 AM 12/11/2001 -0600, you wrote: >Tim, > >Caution on ALLY. Rest of group is showing signs of wear. GTK gapped down >yesterday on earnings. Might want to get a feel by flipping through the rest >of the charts: > >GTK, PENN, MNTG, MGAM, IGT, SLOT, , SHFL, ISLE, BHWK, ASCA, HET, CHDN, MCG, >MBG,WMS, AZR, ALHY > >10-Dec-01 Briefing.com >08:03 ET GTECH Holdings (GTK) 46.61: Reports Q3 net of $0.73 a share, $0.02 >better than consensus, vs yr-ago EPS of $0.53. For Q4, co expects EPS to be >in line with previous guidance of $0.81-$0.86 (consensus $0.86). Co >authorizes repurchase of up to $75 mln. Also announces plan to purchase up >to $150 mln of existing debt through a $150 mln private placement of >Convertible Debentures. > >Katherine > >----- Original Message ----- >From: "Tim Fisher" >To: >Sent: Tuesday, December 11, 2001 10:48 AM >Subject: [CANSLIM] ALLY > > > > B/O this AM. Also CACI looking good altho this one is extended. Discl: I > > own both. INTV: toilet-bound. > > > > Tim Fisher > > Ore-ROCK-On Rockhounding Web Site > > Pacific Fishery Biologists Information > > mailto:tim@OreRockOn.com > > WWW http://OreRockOn.com > > > > > > - > > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" > > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. > > >- >-To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" >-In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or >-"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. Tim Fisher Ore-ROCK-On Rockhounding Web Site Pacific Fishery Biologists Information mailto:tim@OreRockOn.com WWW http://OreRockOn.com - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: 11 Dec 2001 09:57:16 -0800 From: "Tim Fisher" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] ALLY I see a double bottom w/ a high handle @25 on ALLY. Agree CACI is extended, didn't I say that? I got flushed by INTV too ;( At 09:32 AM 12/11/2001 -0800, you wrote: >----- Original Message ----- >From: "Tim Fisher" >To: >Sent: Tuesday, December 11, 2001 8:48 AM >Subject: [CANSLIM] ALLY > > > > B/O this AM. Also CACI looking good altho this one is extended. Discl: I > > own both. INTV: toilet-bound. > >Tim, > >I'd be real careful on ALLY as it's had quite a run up till now. If you've >owned it for a while your in great shape. Also, I don't see a real base to >buy off now IMHO. >Agreed on INTV ( I got flushed on that one). I'm also watching MOVI and ASIA >dump. Guess these are the usual IBD pull-backs? (g) >Really drives home the point to get in right at the pivot. > >-Bill Triffet > > >- >-To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" >-In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or >-"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. Tim Fisher Ore-ROCK-On Rockhounding Web Site Pacific Fishery Biologists Information mailto:tim@OreRockOn.com WWW http://OreRockOn.com - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 11 Dec 2001 12:08:51 -0600 From: Subject: [CANSLIM] buying before the pivot point ouch on INTV. i hope you all bought it around 14.00, as it broke out of its pivot. do any of you buy before the pivot point , if the volume is hugh, and the technicals and the fundamentals are excellent, and the stock is setting up to break out of a nice base pattern??? - ----- Original Message ----- From: "Bill Triffet" To: Sent: Tuesday, December 11, 2001 11:32 AM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] ALLY > > ----- Original Message ----- > From: "Tim Fisher" > To: > Sent: Tuesday, December 11, 2001 8:48 AM > Subject: [CANSLIM] ALLY > > > > B/O this AM. Also CACI looking good altho this one is extended. Discl: I > > own both. INTV: toilet-bound. > > Tim, > > I'd be real careful on ALLY as it's had quite a run up till now. If you've > owned it for a while your in great shape. Also, I don't see a real base to > buy off now IMHO. > Agreed on INTV ( I got flushed on that one). I'm also watching MOVI and ASIA > dump. Guess these are the usual IBD pull-backs? (g) > Really drives home the point to get in right at the pivot. > > -Bill Triffet > > > - > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 11 Dec 2001 11:40:28 -0600 From: "Katherine Malm" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] ALLY Tim, I see what you're saying both about GTK and the stocks you track. Usually when a group begins to break down, it's the weak players that go first, strong players last. When it's recovering, strong players first, weak players on the bootstraps. Gaming is a group that's always had problems maintaining its momentum. Some secular shifts in gaming technology may change that. But past history gives me a clue when looking at the performance of a group. When weaker players begin breaking down on top of that, it's reason enough for alarm. In the system that I use, I have a 13 week relative timing (RT) measure for stocks and groups that is valued from 0 to 2. Less than 1 means price is declining, above 1 means price is rising. Normally when a stock or industry starts moving into extreme territory either way, the rubberband effect will come into play. Gaming peaked out with a one week trip up to about 1.4 in 5/96, 10/97, 11/98. It showed new character this year with a 6 week performance at those levels between about 5/4/01 and 6/12/01. Then, the group fell out of bed. The rise from the September lows has been a spectacular ride straight up, and stocks like MGAM have made nary a pause along the way. Yesterday the group registered at a RT of 1.34. It's been near this reading since 11/16. If the secular trend in the industry is strong, I would conclude there would be a benign pause here that could very well take good stocks back to recent support or at least to the 50 day MA. There, I think you'll see whether or not the big guns want to continue to pump money into the group and its strongest players. That would infer in the meantime, however, avoiding any new entries in the group that are not solidly breaking out of well formed bases (as Bill just noted) and it would mean watching for ANY signs that one of the stocks in the group currently held was heading back to or breaking recent support levels. Cautionary notes only, but based on analysis. Katherine - ----- Original Message ----- From: "Tim Fisher" To: Sent: Tuesday, December 11, 2001 11:53 AM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] ALLY > Of these, I track PENN, MNTG, IGT, SLOT, SHFL. I like most of their charts, > and have owned a few of them in the past. If I look at the charts I track, > it seems like many are setting up for breakouts or have just broken out. > GTK wasn't CANSLIM anyway (IMO). > > At 10:22 AM 12/11/2001 -0600, you wrote: > >Tim, > > > >Caution on ALLY. Rest of group is showing signs of wear. GTK gapped down > >yesterday on earnings. Might want to get a feel by flipping through the rest > >of the charts: > > > >GTK, PENN, MNTG, MGAM, IGT, SLOT, , SHFL, ISLE, BHWK, ASCA, HET, CHDN, MCG, > >MBG,WMS, AZR, ALHY > > > >10-Dec-01 Briefing.com > >08:03 ET GTECH Holdings (GTK) 46.61: Reports Q3 net of $0.73 a share, $0.02 > >better than consensus, vs yr-ago EPS of $0.53. For Q4, co expects EPS to be > >in line with previous guidance of $0.81-$0.86 (consensus $0.86). Co > >authorizes repurchase of up to $75 mln. Also announces plan to purchase up > >to $150 mln of existing debt through a $150 mln private placement of > >Convertible Debentures. > > > >Katherine > > > >----- Original Message ----- > >From: "Tim Fisher" > >To: > >Sent: Tuesday, December 11, 2001 10:48 AM > >Subject: [CANSLIM] ALLY > > > > > > > B/O this AM. Also CACI looking good altho this one is extended. Discl: I > > > own both. INTV: toilet-bound. > > > > > > Tim Fisher > > > Ore-ROCK-On Rockhounding Web Site > > > Pacific Fishery Biologists Information > > > mailto:tim@OreRockOn.com > > > WWW http://OreRockOn.com > > > > > > > > > - > > > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" > > > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > > > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. > > > > > >- > >-To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" > >-In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > >-"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. > > Tim Fisher > Ore-ROCK-On Rockhounding Web Site > Pacific Fishery Biologists Information > mailto:tim@OreRockOn.com > WWW http://OreRockOn.com > > > - > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 11 Dec 2001 11:52:03 -0800 From: "Bill Triffet" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] ALLY - ----- Original Message ----- From: "Tim Fisher" To: Sent: Tuesday, December 11, 2001 9:57 AM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] ALLY > I see a double bottom w/ a high handle @25 on ALLY. Agree CACI is extended, > didn't I say that? I got flushed by INTV too ;( Tim, Interesting take on ALLY. I've never looked at "high handles" as they represented a stock thats made quite a climb already. I considered the real break out for the double bottom on 11/6 around 20. I was following it then but missed it by a day so I let it go... All in all, lots of pullbacks. - -Bill Triffet - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 11 Dec 2001 13:40:52 -0600 From: "Katherine Malm" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Institutional Ownership >>> Boucher says 1 - 16% is optimum (fuel), 35% max, David Ryan (an successful > student of Oneil, interviewed in market wizzards) says 1 - 20%. Thanks, Andreas. That seems a good number to keep from being "overowned." > Boucher adds Banks and Fonds That's what I was thinking would make sense. I've sent a feedback to DGO about total institutional vs. mutual fund ownership in their scans. >>That's the reason why I bought ECTX (15% Banks and Fonds, less shares outstanding) Your comment confused me, so just want to be sure I understood what you were saying. The numbers on DGO show % funds, % other institutions/banks as a % of the float. In this case, float is 3.5m. Banks/Institutions own 15% of 3.5m or 525K shares. Not much. The outstanding shares are total shares, float is a % of that. So, in this case 3.5m float / 16.2m outstanding = 22% of the outstanding shares are in float. That means institutions only own 0.525m/16.2m = 3.24% of outstanding shares. Still nice and low either way, but much lower than the implied 15%. >>instead of UTSI (50% Banks and Fonds) Just to compare apples and apples. UTSI has 39.5m float, 106.9m outstanding, 50% of *float* is in institutional hands. That means they own 0.5*39.5m = 19.75m shares. That's 19.75m / 106.9m outstanding = 18.48% of outstanding. Conversely, that will still qualify it for Ryan but not Boucher criteria, and certainly much higher than ECTX. But it's not nearly as scary as the idea that institutions own 50%! Katherine - ----- Original Message ----- From: "Andreas Himmelreich" To: Sent: Tuesday, December 11, 2001 5:23 AM Subject: AW: [CANSLIM] Institutional Ownership > Boucher says 1 - 16% is optimum (fuel), 35% max, David Ryan (an successfull > student of Oneil, interviewed in market wizzards) says 1 - 20%. > Boucher adds Banks and Fonds. > > I do not like Stocks that have more then 30 - 40%, the stock then is > already known to everybody. > Thats the reason why I bought ECTX (15% Banks and Fonds, less shares > outstanding) instead of UTSI (50% Banks and Fonds) > > > -----Ursprungliche Nachricht----- > > Von: Katherine Malm [SMTP:kmalm@earthlink.net] > > Gesendet am: Tuesday, December 11, 2001 6:25 AM > > An: canslim@lists.xmission.com > > Betreff: [CANSLIM] Institutional Ownership > > > > I've been playing around with the new filtering criteria in the beta DGO > and wanted to get the list's point of view on institutional ownership. > > > > (1) The DGO filter only includes mutual fund ownership, rather than total > institutional AND mutual fund ownership. Do you see this as a problem? > > > > (2) Out of curiosity, I scanned for the following: > > > > Price>=$10; ADV>=90K; A/D = A, B, or C; Price > 50dMA 1% or more (can't > do 0.00001!); Price > 200dMA 1% or more; mutual fund ownership >=10%; RS > >=60. > > > > This is a wide net screen that looks for stocks performing relatively > well and liquid enough to be in big hands. If liquidity were based on total > float the results might be different. > > > > This gave 717 names. When I started lopping off mutual fund ownership, > the numbers of stocks were: > > > > 10-90% = 713 stocks > > 10-80% = 712 stocks > > 10-70% = 711 stocks > > 10-60% = 708 stocks > > 10-50% = 696 stocks > > 10-40% = 634 stocks > > 10-30% = 470 stocks > > 10-20% = 227 stocks > > 00-09% = 23 stocks (another bugaboo, can't scan for <10%) > > > > It seems like the primary concentration is around 10 to 40%. (But this > may not mean much if it doesn't include all institutional holders.) > > What would you view as a reasonable % ownership, neither too low nor too > high, for a good CANSLIM candidate? > > > > Katherine > > << Datei: ATT00011.htm >> > > - > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 11 Dec 2001 22:16:59 +0100 From: Andreas Himmelreich Subject: AW: [CANSLIM] Institutional Ownership Sorry Katherine, I should have written Shares (not shares Outstanding). I like shares that have not a high Market Cap. I think Ryan and Oneil do too. > -----Ursprungliche Nachricht----- > Von: Katherine Malm [SMTP:kmalm@earthlink.net] > Gesendet am: Tuesday, December 11, 2001 8:41 PM > An: canslim@lists.xmission.com > Betreff: Re: [CANSLIM] Institutional Ownership > > >>> Boucher says 1 - 16% is optimum (fuel), 35% max, David Ryan (an > successful > > student of Oneil, interviewed in market wizzards) says 1 - 20%. > > Thanks, Andreas. That seems a good number to keep from being "overowned." > > > Boucher adds Banks and Fonds > > That's what I was thinking would make sense. I've sent a feedback to DGO > about total institutional vs. mutual fund ownership in their scans. > > >>That's the reason why I bought ECTX (15% Banks and Fonds, less shares > outstanding) > > Your comment confused me, so just want to be sure I understood what you were > saying. The numbers on DGO show % funds, % other institutions/banks as a % > of the float. In this case, float is 3.5m. Banks/Institutions own 15% of > 3.5m or 525K shares. Not much. > > The outstanding shares are total shares, float is a % of that. So, in this > case 3.5m float / 16.2m outstanding = 22% of the outstanding shares are in > float. That means institutions only own 0.525m/16.2m = 3.24% of outstanding > shares. Still nice and low either way, but much lower than the implied 15%. > > >>instead of UTSI (50% Banks and Fonds) > Just to compare apples and apples. UTSI has 39.5m float, 106.9m outstanding, > 50% of *float* is in institutional hands. That means they own 0.5*39.5m = > 19.75m shares. That's 19.75m / 106.9m outstanding = 18.48% of outstanding. > Conversely, that will still qualify it for Ryan but not Boucher criteria, > and certainly much higher than ECTX. But it's not nearly as scary as the > idea that institutions own 50%! > > Katherine > > ----- Original Message ----- > From: "Andreas Himmelreich" > To: > Sent: Tuesday, December 11, 2001 5:23 AM > Subject: AW: [CANSLIM] Institutional Ownership > > > > Boucher says 1 - 16% is optimum (fuel), 35% max, David Ryan (an > successfull > > student of Oneil, interviewed in market wizzards) says 1 - 20%. > > Boucher adds Banks and Fonds. > > > > I do not like Stocks that have more then 30 - 40%, the stock then is > > already known to everybody. > > Thats the reason why I bought ECTX (15% Banks and Fonds, less shares > > outstanding) instead of UTSI (50% Banks and Fonds) > > > > > -----Ursprungliche Nachricht----- > > > Von: Katherine Malm [SMTP:kmalm@earthlink.net] > > > Gesendet am: Tuesday, December 11, 2001 6:25 AM > > > An: canslim@lists.xmission.com > > > Betreff: [CANSLIM] Institutional Ownership > > > > > > I've been playing around with the new filtering criteria in the beta DGO > > and wanted to get the list's point of view on institutional ownership. > > > > > > (1) The DGO filter only includes mutual fund ownership, rather than > total > > institutional AND mutual fund ownership. Do you see this as a problem? > > > > > > (2) Out of curiosity, I scanned for the following: > > > > > > Price>=$10; ADV>=90K; A/D = A, B, or C; Price > 50dMA 1% or more (can't > > do 0.00001!); Price > 200dMA 1% or more; mutual fund ownership >=10%; RS > > >=60. > > > > > > This is a wide net screen that looks for stocks performing relatively > > well and liquid enough to be in big hands. If liquidity were based on > total > > float the results might be different. > > > > > > This gave 717 names. When I started lopping off mutual fund ownership, > > the numbers of stocks were: > > > > > > 10-90% = 713 stocks > > > 10-80% = 712 stocks > > > 10-70% = 711 stocks > > > 10-60% = 708 stocks > > > 10-50% = 696 stocks > > > 10-40% = 634 stocks > > > 10-30% = 470 stocks > > > 10-20% = 227 stocks > > > 00-09% = 23 stocks (another bugaboo, can't scan for <10%) > > > > > > It seems like the primary concentration is around 10 to 40%. (But this > > may not mean much if it doesn't include all institutional holders.) > > > What would you view as a reasonable % ownership, neither too low nor too > > high, for a good CANSLIM candidate? > > > > > > Katherine > > > << Datei: ATT00011.htm >> > > > > - > > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" > > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. > > > - > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 11 Dec 2001 22:23:48 +0100 From: Andreas Himmelreich Subject: [CANSLIM] Analysis on Industry Groups and their technical patterns Hi, I know that I read it somewhere in WO Books that the Market drives individual stocks by 75% and the Industry Groups do drive individual stocks as well 75%. That means, if the market is down (bear market), 3 out of 4 Stocks are usually down. And if the Industry is down, 3 out of 4 Stocks belonging to that industry are also down. Also WO states that he looks stocks in a group that are breaking out to before he buys a stock within this group. On Daily Graphs http://beta.dailygraphs.com you can chart industry groups and I think this is great --> Here is my working theorie, that I want to share with you: M (Market) --> Wait for follow through (nothing new) I (Industry) --> Look for uptrend of the Industry (Price and Relative Strength (RS)) --> Look for Patterns within the RS of the Industry Group (IG) --> Look for Patterns within the Price of the IG --> Look for Patterns where the Price of a Group is not changeging a lot (in the handle) but the RS improves and breaks out of a CWH (or other) pattern or makes new highs. I found this situation several times and within the next days the leading stocks of the IG started to break out upwards. --> Look for Breakouts of Price of the IG --> Be carefull if the IG has already a RS of 99 and looks overextended (why not use the rubberband sell rule) Stock Selection (Oneil, Boucher) --> We all know that (RS 80, EPS 80, ROI better then 17%, Low Dept etc., CWH etc.) Look for the strongest stocks in the group. If you missed a BO of a stock, look for the next stocks within the group that did not break out yet but has good fundamentals and a good pattern. Sceptical? Me too. But I found very good examples: Example 1) IG Bld-Resident/Commrcl --> Nice SWH (Soucer With Handle) of RS of the IG --> 09/05 - 11/30 Nice CWH of the Price of the IG --> 09/05 - 11/30 My working theorie is --> You could have been very well prepared for the breakout on --> 11/29, because the RS of the IG was spiking up the day before the breakout of the individual stocks. Further more --> NRV, MTH, MHO, MDL, DHI, BZH broke on 11/30 (the Break out of Price of the Industry Group and the Breakout of RS of the IG) You could have grabbed RYL and CTX on 12/04 and WLS, KBH, HOV on 12/05. Further Conclusions --> - - The more individuall stocks of a group break out on one day the less the probability that the breakout fails - - The better the fundamentals of a stock (especially Valuation and EPS, but also RS) relative to the others in their group the less the probability that the breakout fails (of the individual stock you choosed). Example 2) Retail Consumer Electronic Nice CWH of the Price of the Group from 09/06 - 11/13 RS is spiking up in the Handle even the price of the group is not moving up. 11/13 was the breakout of the Group ON 11/15 (!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!) RSC broke out. Next Break out of the group was 11/26. On 11/29 ELBO broke out (!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!) Example 3) Telecommunications Equipment Kind of a SWH. Handle starts on 10/11. Price Breakout of the Group 11/13 and 12/05 Breakout of UTSI --> Breakout on 12/04 (on the next Day the Group broke out again) Breakout of ECTX --> (better fundamentals then UTSI) 11/26 and 12/04 and 12/05 Example 4) False Breakout of ADVP Broke out on 10/15. Industry Group somehow broke out at the same day or the next day. BUT RS of the Industry Group was literaly flat and made now new high. I know I am very excited and above examples are just luck and the odds are not like I describe them here. That is the reason why I writhe it to you so if some of you want, you can look at this deeper and try to confirm or kill it. Thank you. Andreas - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 11 Dec 2001 14:40:21 -0600 From: "Katherine Malm" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Analysis on Industry Groups and their technical patterns Hi Andreas, Excellent analysis!!!!! What you describe is extremely close to my own approach. Now that DGO is *finally* offering industry graphs, this will be far easier to do. I've been using another product to do this for the last 4 years, so the specifics of my approach are slightly different as a result. One thing I might add to your general analysis. When watching industries, you are really looking at a couple of things. First, is it extended and/or getting ready to top out? Looking at the industry's chart and RS relative to the market as a whole will help, but watching the individual players and making note of the weaker players breaking down will give an additional clue. On the other side of the coin, once the industry has gone through a corrective phase (in your parlance, the industry chart would show basing and then beginning a move out of a bottoming formation), you want to start watching for leadership. The good stocks will start moving out ahead of the pack. Once you get a couple of participants, that may be enough evidence to show strong movement, rather than waiting for a C&H B/O of the industry itself. I absolutely agree with you than any candidate for buying should come from a rising group. Analyzing ALL players in the group of institutional quality should be part of every buy and sell decision. Katherine - ----- Original Message ----- From: "Andreas Himmelreich" To: Sent: Tuesday, December 11, 2001 3:23 PM Subject: [CANSLIM] Analysis on Industry Groups and their technical patterns > Hi, > > I know that I read it somewhere in WO Books that the Market drives > individual stocks by 75% and the Industry Groups do drive individual stocks > as well 75%. > That means, if the market is down (bear market), 3 out of 4 Stocks are > usually down. > And if the Industry is down, 3 out of 4 Stocks belonging to that industry > are also down. Also WO states that he looks stocks in a group that are > breaking out to before he buys a stock within this group. > > On Daily Graphs http://beta.dailygraphs.com you can chart industry groups > and I think this is great --> > > Here is my working theorie, that I want to share with you: > > M (Market) --> Wait for follow through (nothing new) > > I (Industry) --> Look for uptrend of the Industry (Price and Relative > Strength (RS)) > --> Look for Patterns within the RS of the Industry Group (IG) > --> Look for Patterns within the Price of the IG > --> Look for Patterns where the Price of a Group is not changeging a lot > (in the handle) but the RS improves and breaks out of a CWH (or other) > pattern or makes new highs. I found this situation several times and > within the next days the leading stocks of the IG started to break out > upwards. > --> Look for Breakouts of Price of the IG > --> Be carefull if the IG has already a RS of 99 and looks overextended > (why not use the rubberband sell rule) > > Stock Selection (Oneil, Boucher) > > --> We all know that (RS 80, EPS 80, ROI better then 17%, Low Dept etc., > CWH etc.) Look for the strongest stocks in the group. > If you missed a BO of a stock, look for the next stocks within the group > that did not break out yet > but has good fundamentals and a good pattern. > > Sceptical? Me too. But I found very good examples: > > Example 1) IG Bld-Resident/Commrcl --> > > Nice SWH (Soucer With Handle) of RS of the IG --> 09/05 - 11/30 > Nice CWH of the Price of the IG --> 09/05 - 11/30 > > My working theorie is --> You could have been very well prepared for the > breakout on --> 11/29, because the RS of the IG was spiking up the day > before the breakout of the individual stocks. > > Further more --> NRV, MTH, MHO, MDL, DHI, BZH broke on 11/30 (the Break > out of Price of the Industry Group and the Breakout of RS of the IG) > You could have grabbed RYL and CTX on 12/04 and WLS, KBH, HOV on 12/05. > > Further Conclusions --> > > - The more individuall stocks of a group break out on one day the less the > probability that the breakout fails > - The better the fundamentals of a stock (especially Valuation and EPS, but > also RS) relative to the others in their group the less the probability > that the breakout fails (of the individual stock you choosed). > > Example 2) Retail Consumer Electronic > > Nice CWH of the Price of the Group from 09/06 - 11/13 > RS is spiking up in the Handle even the price of the group is not moving > up. > 11/13 was the breakout of the Group > > ON 11/15 (!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!) RSC broke out. > > Next Break out of the group was 11/26. On 11/29 ELBO broke out (!!!!!!!! > !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!) > > > Example 3) Telecommunications Equipment > > Kind of a SWH. Handle starts on 10/11. Price Breakout of the Group 11/13 > and 12/05 > > Breakout of UTSI --> Breakout on 12/04 (on the next Day the Group broke out > again) > Breakout of ECTX --> (better fundamentals then UTSI) 11/26 and 12/04 and > 12/05 > > > Example 4) False Breakout of ADVP > > Broke out on 10/15. > > Industry Group somehow broke out at the same day or the next day. BUT RS of > the Industry Group was literaly flat and made now new high. > > I know I am very excited and above examples are just luck and the odds are > not like I describe them here. That is the reason why I writhe it to you so > if some > of you want, you can look at this deeper and try to confirm or kill it. > > Thank you. > > Andreas > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > - > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ End of canslim-digest V2 #1929 ****************************** To unsubscribe to canslim-digest, send an email to "majordomo@xmission.com" with "unsubscribe canslim-digest" in the body of the message. For information on digests or retrieving files and old messages send "help" to the same address. Do not use quotes in your message.