From: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com (canslim-digest) To: canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Subject: canslim-digest V2 #2004 Reply-To: canslim Sender: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Errors-To: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Precedence: bulk Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable X-No-Archive: yes canslim-digest Thursday, January 3 2002 Volume 02 : Number 2004 In this issue: Re: [CANSLIM] PIR Re: [CANSLIM] PIR Re: [CANSLIM] PIR ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Date: Thu, 3 Jan 2002 18:39:38 -0800 From: "Mike Hofmann" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] PIR This is a multi-part message in MIME format. - ------=_NextPart_000_0188_01C19485.FF9683E0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable Thanks Katherine. I appreciate your input. What other retailers would you put in the same niche a PIR? I looked = through the list of specialty retailers and I didn't see one that fills = quite the same niche as PIR. It's possible that means that there's = really no market for that niche. I was trying to figure out who to = compare them to but they seem to be unique. They compete with sections = of department stores and small specialty stores. I'm not sure how to = evaluate their performance against their direct competition. Who would = you say they're lagging behind? Mike ----- Original Message -----=20 From: Katherine Malm=20 To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20 Sent: Thursday, January 03, 2002 4:07 PM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] PIR Hi Mike, Specialty retail is often a space to find great CANSLIM stocks, but = only if the company is defining a new market, addressing an existing = market in a new way, has a particular niche, or is consolidating = retailers in a meaningful way. Pier One has been in a long slump, = essentially a flat base since 1/99. The breakout of that range occurred = 11/26/01 and is the only "official" breakout by CANSLIM rules. Action = since then is really a continuation of the move, so I'd say the real = support is back at the pivot around 14ish. (This seems to be confirmed = by your 50 day EMA support figure.) Pier One has been trying to spice up the mix as their sales and growth = had become stale. In February 2001, they purchased "Cargo Furniture" = which is based in Ft. Worth. This is a retailer for toddler furniture = and the company thinks they can carve a niche and roll this out = nationally. I'm sure some of the action lately is in anticipation of = their success. From a CANSLIM point of view, however, the results from = the acquisition haven't found their way into the revenue and EPS figures = in a meaningful way. QoQ and YoY growth is still sluggish. Until the = evidence is clearer, I'd consider this one a laggard in the group. Katherine ----- Original Message -----=20 From: Mike Hofmann=20 To: CANSLIM msg board=20 Sent: Thursday, January 03, 2002 5:02 PM Subject: [CANSLIM] PIR Great action on PIR recently, especially today. Granted, specialty = retail may not be a particularly CANSLIMish industry, but here's what = I've got on it. Sure would appreciate commentary. Today: a.. Gapped up at open=20 b.. Established new high on extremely heavy volume (more than 5x = ADV)=20 c.. Ended day at upper end of day's trading range=20 d.. Announced better than expected Dec sales and increased = earnings guidance for the quarter=20 e.. Analysts are raving Fundies: Very strong overall Pros: a.. Heavy institutional buying in quarter ended 9/30/2001=20 b.. EPS has held up in difficult economy (EPS up 9% in 3Q2001)=20 c.. Cash flow + (big time)=20 d.. Low debt and big improvement in this area the last two = quarters=20 e.. ROE just shy of WON's 17% criterion (16.6%), but is well above = industry avg (12.7%)=20 f.. RSI has been holding in the 90s since early Oct Cons: a.. Annual earnings growth decreasing (5 yr =3D 54%, 3 yr =3D 10%, = TTM =3D -2%) ... but TTM should improve if 4th Q comes in as expected=20 b.. PEG may be a bit high (~1.4), but is in line with industry = average (1.5)=20 c.. Insider ownership is poor at only 1.5% of outstanding shares = and insiders have been selling=20 d.. Has been on a very good run; are we seeing a climax top? Today = marked by far the largest single day increase since the beginning of = this run. Chart: a.. Broke out of cup w/o handle base formed by 12.65 high 9/4, = 52-wk low of 7.97 on 9/21 and gap up on strong volume 11/8. Also gapped = up 11/26 & 12/18. That makes today's action the 4th b/o since early Nov. = Could be tired, but I like the divergence between price and RSI. Price = is hitting new highs while RSI has a little room to grow. Does it have = enough steam to break through the all-time high of around 20? Support: Around 50-day EMA (14.72) Resistance: Around all-time high established 2Q1998 (~20) - ------=_NextPart_000_0188_01C19485.FF9683E0 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
Thanks Katherine. I appreciate your=20 input.
 
What other retailers would you put in = the same=20 niche a PIR? I looked through the list of specialty retailers and I = didn't see=20 one that fills quite the same niche as PIR. It's possible that means = that=20 there's really no market for that niche. I was trying to figure out who = to=20 compare them to but they seem to be unique. They compete with sections = of=20 department stores and small specialty stores. I'm not sure how=20 to evaluate their performance against their direct = competition. Who=20 would you say they're lagging behind?
 
Mike
 
----- Original Message -----
From:=20 Katherine=20 Malm
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=
Sent: Thursday, January 03, = 2002 4:07=20 PM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] = PIR

Hi Mike,
 
Specialty retail is often a space to find great CANSLIM stocks, = but only=20 if the company is defining a new market, addressing an existing market = in a=20 new way, has a particular niche, or is consolidating retailers in a = meaningful=20 way. Pier One has been in a long slump, essentially a flat base since = 1/99.=20 The breakout of that range occurred 11/26/01 and is the only = "official"=20 breakout by CANSLIM rules. Action since then is really a continuation = of the=20 move, so I'd say the real support is back at the pivot around 14ish. = (This=20 seems to be confirmed by your 50 day EMA support figure.)
 
Pier One has been trying to spice up the mix as their sales and = growth=20 had become stale. In February 2001, they purchased "Cargo Furniture" = which is=20 based in Ft. Worth. This is a retailer for toddler furniture and the = company=20 thinks they can carve a niche and roll this out nationally. I'm sure = some of=20 the action lately is in anticipation of their success. From a CANSLIM = point of=20 view, however, the results from the acquisition haven't found their = way into=20 the revenue and EPS figures in a meaningful way. QoQ and YoY growth is = still=20 sluggish. Until the evidence is clearer, I'd consider this one a = laggard in=20 the group.
 
Katherine
----- Original Message -----
From:=20 Mike=20 Hofmann
Sent: Thursday, January 03, = 2002 5:02=20 PM
Subject: [CANSLIM] PIR

Great action on PIR recently, = especially today.=20 Granted, specialty retail may not be a particularly CANSLIMish = industry, but=20 here's what I've got on it. Sure would appreciate = commentary.
 
Today:
  • Gapped up at open=20
  • Established new high on extremely = heavy volume=20 (more than 5x ADV)=20
  • Ended day at upper end of day's = trading=20 range=20
  • Announced better than expected Dec = sales and=20 increased earnings guidance for the quarter=20
  • Analysts are = raving
Fundies:
 
Very strong overall
 
Pros:
  • Heavy institutional buying in = quarter ended=20 9/30/2001=20
  • EPS has held up in difficult = economy (EPS up=20 9% in 3Q2001)=20
  • Cash flow + (big time)=20
  • Low debt and big improvement in = this area the=20 last two quarters=20
  • ROE just shy of WON's 17% = criterion (16.6%),=20 but is well above industry avg (12.7%)=20
  • RSI has been holding in the 90s = since early=20 Oct
Cons:
  • Annual earnings growth decreasing = (5 yr =3D 54%,=20 3 yr =3D 10%, TTM =3D -2%) ... but TTM should improve if 4th Q = comes in as=20 expected=20
  • PEG may be a bit high (~1.4), but = is in line=20 with industry average (1.5)=20
  • Insider ownership is poor at only = 1.5% of=20 outstanding shares and insiders have been selling=20
  • Has been on a very good run; are = we seeing a=20 climax top? Today marked by far the largest single day increase = since the=20 beginning of this run.
Chart:
  • Broke out of cup w/o handle base = formed by=20 12.65 high 9/4, 52-wk low of 7.97 on 9/21 and gap up on strong = volume=20 11/8. Also gapped up 11/26 & 12/18. That makes today's action = the 4th=20 b/o since early Nov. Could be tired, but I like the divergence = between=20 price and RSI. Price is hitting new highs while RSI has a little = room to=20 grow. Does it have enough steam to break through the all-time high = of=20 around 20?
 
Support: = Around 50-day=20 EMA (14.72)
 
Resistance: = Around=20 all-time high established 2Q1998 (~20)
 
- ------=_NextPart_000_0188_01C19485.FF9683E0-- - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 3 Jan 2002 19:52:57 -0700 From: "DOUG CHIURATO" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] PIR This is a multi-part message in MIME format. - ------=_NextPart_000_0011_01C19490.3DA66100 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable I've read the responses of Katherine and Jans and I agree with their = assessments. Refering to a weekly chart it looks like PIR did break out = from a double bottom pattern on 11/26. The left side of the pattern = starting Dec 00 and the center around June 01. DGO shows the co. expects = Q4 FY02 earnings at .40 to .42. I believe that will be compared to the = .38 cents for Q ended 02/28/01. Maybe it's better than what the analysts = expected but it's not that great from a CANSLIM perspective. If the = number came in at .65 or more I might be interested. Looking at the = stock price move from 7.97 in Sept to 18.50 today it's clear somebody = likes the stock. And I'm sure they would be more than happy to sell it = to you as they finally take their profits and move on to something else. = The drop from 18.50 to the 'support' of the 50dma at 14.5 is 22%. Too = much for me. I agree that this stock is ready to breakdown. It broke the = lower trend channel yesterday and today was a great effort to get back = in the channel. I just don't see it staying there. The 50dma is = beckoning. ----- Original Message -----=20 From: Mike Hofmann=20 To: CANSLIM msg board=20 Sent: Thursday, January 03, 2002 4:02 PM Subject: [CANSLIM] PIR Great action on PIR recently, especially today. Granted, specialty = retail may not be a particularly CANSLIMish industry, but here's what = I've got on it. Sure would appreciate commentary. Today: a.. Gapped up at open=20 b.. Established new high on extremely heavy volume (more than 5x = ADV)=20 c.. Ended day at upper end of day's trading range=20 d.. Announced better than expected Dec sales and increased earnings = guidance for the quarter=20 e.. Analysts are raving Fundies: Very strong overall Pros: a.. Heavy institutional buying in quarter ended 9/30/2001=20 b.. EPS has held up in difficult economy (EPS up 9% in 3Q2001)=20 c.. Cash flow + (big time)=20 d.. Low debt and big improvement in this area the last two quarters=20 e.. ROE just shy of WON's 17% criterion (16.6%), but is well above = industry avg (12.7%)=20 f.. RSI has been holding in the 90s since early Oct Cons: a.. Annual earnings growth decreasing (5 yr =3D 54%, 3 yr =3D 10%, = TTM =3D -2%) ... but TTM should improve if 4th Q comes in as expected=20 b.. PEG may be a bit high (~1.4), but is in line with industry = average (1.5)=20 c.. Insider ownership is poor at only 1.5% of outstanding shares and = insiders have been selling=20 d.. Has been on a very good run; are we seeing a climax top? Today = marked by far the largest single day increase since the beginning of = this run. Chart: a.. Broke out of cup w/o handle base formed by 12.65 high 9/4, 52-wk = low of 7.97 on 9/21 and gap up on strong volume 11/8. Also gapped up = 11/26 & 12/18. That makes today's action the 4th b/o since early Nov. = Could be tired, but I like the divergence between price and RSI. Price = is hitting new highs while RSI has a little room to grow. Does it have = enough steam to break through the all-time high of around 20? Support: Around 50-day EMA (14.72) Resistance: Around all-time high established 2Q1998 (~20) - ------=_NextPart_000_0011_01C19490.3DA66100 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
I've read the responses of Katherine = and Jans and I=20 agree with their assessments. Refering to a weekly chart it looks like = PIR did=20 break out from a double bottom pattern on 11/26. The left side of=20 the pattern starting Dec 00 and the center around June 01. DGO = shows the=20 co. expects Q4 FY02 earnings at .40 to .42. I believe that will be = compared to=20 the .38 cents for Q ended 02/28/01. Maybe it's better than what the = analysts=20 expected but it's not that great from a CANSLIM perspective. If the = number came=20 in at .65 or more I might be interested. Looking at the stock price move = from=20 7.97 in Sept to 18.50 today it's clear somebody likes the stock. And I'm = sure=20 they would be more than happy to sell it to you as they finally take = their=20 profits and move on to something else. The drop from 18.50 to the = 'support' of=20 the 50dma at 14.5 is 22%. Too much for me. I agree that this stock is = ready to=20 breakdown. It broke the lower trend channel yesterday and today was a = great=20 effort to get back in the channel. I just don't see it staying there. = The 50dma=20 is beckoning.
 
----- Original Message -----
From:=20 Mike=20 Hofmann
To: CANSLIM msg board =
Sent: Thursday, January 03, = 2002 4:02=20 PM
Subject: [CANSLIM] PIR

Great action on PIR recently, = especially today.=20 Granted, specialty retail may not be a particularly CANSLIMish = industry, but=20 here's what I've got on it. Sure would appreciate = commentary.
 
Today:
  • Gapped up at open=20
  • Established new high on extremely = heavy volume=20 (more than 5x ADV)=20
  • Ended day at upper end of day's = trading=20 range=20
  • Announced better than expected Dec = sales and=20 increased earnings guidance for the quarter=20
  • Analysts are raving
Fundies:
 
Very strong overall
 
Pros:
  • Heavy institutional buying in = quarter ended=20 9/30/2001=20
  • EPS has held up in difficult economy = (EPS up 9%=20 in 3Q2001)=20
  • Cash flow + (big time)=20
  • Low debt and big improvement in this = area the=20 last two quarters=20
  • ROE just shy of WON's 17% criterion = (16.6%), but=20 is well above industry avg (12.7%)=20
  • RSI has been holding in the 90s = since early=20 Oct
Cons:
  • Annual earnings growth decreasing (5 = yr =3D 54%, 3=20 yr =3D 10%, TTM =3D -2%) ... but TTM should improve if 4th Q comes = in as=20 expected=20
  • PEG may be a bit high (~1.4), but is = in line=20 with industry average (1.5)=20
  • Insider ownership is poor at only = 1.5% of=20 outstanding shares and insiders have been selling=20
  • Has been on a very good run; are we = seeing a=20 climax top? Today marked by far the largest single day increase = since the=20 beginning of this run.
Chart:
  • Broke out of cup w/o handle base = formed by 12.65=20 high 9/4, 52-wk low of 7.97 on 9/21 and gap up on strong volume = 11/8. Also=20 gapped up 11/26 & 12/18. That makes today's action the 4th b/o = since=20 early Nov. Could be tired, but I like the divergence between price = and RSI.=20 Price is hitting new highs while RSI has a little room to grow. Does = it have=20 enough steam to break through the all-time high of around = 20?
 
Support: = Around 50-day=20 EMA (14.72)
 
Resistance: = Around=20 all-time high established 2Q1998 (~20)
 
- ------=_NextPart_000_0011_01C19490.3DA66100-- - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 3 Jan 2002 21:06:12 -0600 From: "Katherine Malm" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] PIR This is a multi-part message in MIME format. - ------=_NextPart_000_0244_01C1949A.7930CBC0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable Hi Mike, PIR is tough to compare directly to anybody else except maybe CPWM (who = has their own problems). In general, I would compare them to WSM (who = owns Pottery Barn, Pottery Barn Kids, Williams Sonoma, Hold Everything, = Chambers, and I think a gardening mail order catalog), URBN and BBBY. In = furniture, only ETH comes to mind as a maker of a "junior" line of = furniture to compare to Cargo Furniture. In addition to these fairly = direct competitors, I'd also compare them to specialty retailing in = general. That would throw in such companies as GLYN, HLYW/BBI/MOVI, = KMX/SAH, GPI, TSCO, ACMR/MIK, RGIS, BKS/BGP. This is a hugely diverse = grouping, but the stocks I've listed have the "bare bones" requirements = to make them CANSLIM quality. This certainly isn't an exhaustive = listing. You could argue for comparison to WMT or KSS or TJX etc. But = you get my drift. The fact that so many other competitors have "pieces" = of their retailing concept just shows how they've drifted into ho-hum in = the last couple of years. They've been aggressively cost cutting and = trying to streamline. That's good, but I still like proof before putting = my hard earned money on the line. In general, if the growth rates for EPS and Revenues are less than 20% = QoQ, I consider the company to be a laggard. The only time I would make = exception is if they were making some kind of turnaround and after a = period of declining EPS/Rev, were starting to show accelerating growth = again. Look at the excellent growth of a company like BBBY and you'll = see what I mean by way of comparison. Look at the turnaround in a = company like URBN or MIK as an example. I'll send you a PIR chart with = earnings numbers, as it'll be too big for the list. Katherine ----- Original Message -----=20 From: Mike Hofmann=20 To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20 Sent: Thursday, January 03, 2002 8:39 PM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] PIR Thanks Katherine. I appreciate your input. What other retailers would you put in the same niche a PIR? I looked = through the list of specialty retailers and I didn't see one that fills = quite the same niche as PIR. It's possible that means that there's = really no market for that niche. I was trying to figure out who to = compare them to but they seem to be unique. They compete with sections = of department stores and small specialty stores. I'm not sure how to = evaluate their performance against their direct competition. Who would = you say they're lagging behind? Mike ----- Original Message -----=20 From: Katherine Malm=20 To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20 Sent: Thursday, January 03, 2002 4:07 PM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] PIR Hi Mike, Specialty retail is often a space to find great CANSLIM stocks, but = only if the company is defining a new market, addressing an existing = market in a new way, has a particular niche, or is consolidating = retailers in a meaningful way. Pier One has been in a long slump, = essentially a flat base since 1/99. The breakout of that range occurred = 11/26/01 and is the only "official" breakout by CANSLIM rules. Action = since then is really a continuation of the move, so I'd say the real = support is back at the pivot around 14ish. (This seems to be confirmed = by your 50 day EMA support figure.) Pier One has been trying to spice up the mix as their sales and = growth had become stale. In February 2001, they purchased "Cargo = Furniture" which is based in Ft. Worth. This is a retailer for toddler = furniture and the company thinks they can carve a niche and roll this = out nationally. I'm sure some of the action lately is in anticipation of = their success. From a CANSLIM point of view, however, the results from = the acquisition haven't found their way into the revenue and EPS figures = in a meaningful way. QoQ and YoY growth is still sluggish. Until the = evidence is clearer, I'd consider this one a laggard in the group. Katherine ----- Original Message -----=20 From: Mike Hofmann=20 To: CANSLIM msg board=20 Sent: Thursday, January 03, 2002 5:02 PM Subject: [CANSLIM] PIR Great action on PIR recently, especially today. Granted, specialty = retail may not be a particularly CANSLIMish industry, but here's what = I've got on it. Sure would appreciate commentary. Today: a.. Gapped up at open=20 b.. Established new high on extremely heavy volume (more than 5x = ADV)=20 c.. Ended day at upper end of day's trading range=20 d.. Announced better than expected Dec sales and increased = earnings guidance for the quarter=20 e.. Analysts are raving Fundies: Very strong overall Pros: a.. Heavy institutional buying in quarter ended 9/30/2001=20 b.. EPS has held up in difficult economy (EPS up 9% in 3Q2001)=20 c.. Cash flow + (big time)=20 d.. Low debt and big improvement in this area the last two = quarters=20 e.. ROE just shy of WON's 17% criterion (16.6%), but is well = above industry avg (12.7%)=20 f.. RSI has been holding in the 90s since early Oct Cons: a.. Annual earnings growth decreasing (5 yr =3D 54%, 3 yr =3D = 10%, TTM =3D -2%) ... but TTM should improve if 4th Q comes in as = expected=20 b.. PEG may be a bit high (~1.4), but is in line with industry = average (1.5)=20 c.. Insider ownership is poor at only 1.5% of outstanding shares = and insiders have been selling=20 d.. Has been on a very good run; are we seeing a climax top? = Today marked by far the largest single day increase since the beginning = of this run. Chart: a.. Broke out of cup w/o handle base formed by 12.65 high 9/4, = 52-wk low of 7.97 on 9/21 and gap up on strong volume 11/8. Also gapped = up 11/26 & 12/18. That makes today's action the 4th b/o since early Nov. = Could be tired, but I like the divergence between price and RSI. Price = is hitting new highs while RSI has a little room to grow. Does it have = enough steam to break through the all-time high of around 20? Support: Around 50-day EMA (14.72) Resistance: Around all-time high established 2Q1998 (~20) - ------=_NextPart_000_0244_01C1949A.7930CBC0 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
Hi Mike,
 
PIR is tough to compare directly to anybody else except maybe CPWM = (who has=20 their own problems). In general, I would compare them to WSM (who owns = Pottery=20 Barn, Pottery Barn Kids, Williams Sonoma, Hold Everything, Chambers, and = I think=20 a gardening mail order catalog), URBN and BBBY. In furniture, only ETH = comes to=20 mind as a maker of a "junior" line of furniture to compare to Cargo = Furniture.=20 In addition to these fairly direct competitors, I'd also compare them to = specialty retailing in general. That would throw in such companies as = GLYN,=20 HLYW/BBI/MOVI, KMX/SAH, GPI, TSCO, ACMR/MIK, RGIS, BKS/BGP. This is a = hugely=20 diverse grouping, but the stocks I've listed have the "bare bones" = requirements=20 to make them CANSLIM quality. This certainly isn't an exhaustive = listing. You=20 could argue for comparison to WMT or KSS or TJX etc. But you get my = drift. The=20 fact that so many other competitors have "pieces" of their retailing = concept=20 just shows how they've drifted into ho-hum in the last couple of years. = They've=20 been aggressively cost cutting and trying to streamline. That's good, = but I=20 still like proof before putting my hard earned money on the line.
 
In general, if the growth rates for EPS and Revenues are less than = 20% QoQ,=20 I consider the company to be a laggard. The only time I would make = exception is=20 if they were making some kind of turnaround and after a period of = declining=20 EPS/Rev, were starting to show accelerating growth again. Look at the = excellent=20 growth of a company like BBBY and you'll see what I mean by way of = comparison.=20 Look at the turnaround in a company like URBN or MIK as an example. I'll = send=20 you a PIR chart with earnings numbers, as it'll be too big for the = list.
 
Katherine
----- Original Message -----
From:=20 Mike=20 Hofmann
Sent: Thursday, January 03, = 2002 8:39=20 PM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] = PIR

Thanks Katherine. I appreciate your=20 input.
 
What other retailers would you put in = the same=20 niche a PIR? I looked through the list of specialty retailers and I = didn't see=20 one that fills quite the same niche as PIR. It's possible that means = that=20 there's really no market for that niche. I was trying to figure out = who to=20 compare them to but they seem to be unique. They compete with sections = of=20 department stores and small specialty stores. I'm not sure how=20 to evaluate their performance against their direct = competition. Who=20 would you say they're lagging behind?
 
Mike
 
----- Original Message -----
From:=20 Katherine=20 Malm
Sent: Thursday, January 03, = 2002 4:07=20 PM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] = PIR

Hi Mike,
 
Specialty retail is often a space to find great CANSLIM stocks, = but=20 only if the company is defining a new market, addressing an existing = market=20 in a new way, has a particular niche, or is consolidating retailers = in a=20 meaningful way. Pier One has been in a long slump, essentially a = flat base=20 since 1/99. The breakout of that range occurred 11/26/01 and is the = only=20 "official" breakout by CANSLIM rules. Action since then is really a=20 continuation of the move, so I'd say the real support is back at the = pivot=20 around 14ish. (This seems to be confirmed by your 50 day EMA support = figure.)
 
Pier One has been trying to spice up the mix as their sales and = growth=20 had become stale. In February 2001, they purchased "Cargo Furniture" = which=20 is based in Ft. Worth. This is a retailer for toddler furniture and = the=20 company thinks they can carve a niche and roll this out nationally. = I'm sure=20 some of the action lately is in anticipation of their success. From = a=20 CANSLIM point of view, however, the results from the acquisition = haven't=20 found their way into the revenue and EPS figures in a meaningful = way. QoQ=20 and YoY growth is still sluggish. Until the evidence is clearer, I'd = consider this one a laggard in the group.
 
Katherine
----- Original Message ----- =
From:=20 Mike=20 Hofmann
To: CANSLIM msg board =
Sent: Thursday, January 03, = 2002 5:02=20 PM
Subject: [CANSLIM] = PIR

Great action on PIR recently, = especially=20 today. Granted, specialty retail may not be a particularly = CANSLIMish=20 industry, but here's what I've got on it. Sure would appreciate=20 commentary.
 
Today:
  • Gapped up at open=20
  • Established new high on = extremely heavy=20 volume (more than 5x ADV)=20
  • Ended day at upper end of day's = trading=20 range=20
  • Announced better than expected = Dec sales and=20 increased earnings guidance for the quarter=20
  • Analysts are = raving
Fundies:
 
Very strong overall
 
Pros:
  • Heavy institutional buying in = quarter ended=20 9/30/2001=20
  • EPS has held up in difficult = economy (EPS up=20 9% in 3Q2001)=20
  • Cash flow + (big time)=20
  • Low debt and big improvement in = this area=20 the last two quarters=20
  • ROE just shy of WON's 17% = criterion (16.6%),=20 but is well above industry avg (12.7%)=20
  • RSI has been holding in the 90s = since early=20 Oct
Cons:
  • Annual earnings growth = decreasing (5 yr =3D=20 54%, 3 yr =3D 10%, TTM =3D -2%) ... but TTM should improve if = 4th Q comes in=20 as expected=20
  • PEG may be a bit high (~1.4), = but is in line=20 with industry average (1.5)=20
  • Insider ownership is poor at = only 1.5% of=20 outstanding shares and insiders have been selling=20
  • Has been on a very good run; are = we seeing a=20 climax top? Today marked by far the largest single day increase = since=20 the beginning of this run.
Chart:
  • Broke out of cup w/o handle base = formed by=20 12.65 high 9/4, 52-wk low of 7.97 on 9/21 and gap up on strong = volume=20 11/8. Also gapped up 11/26 & 12/18. That makes today's = action the=20 4th b/o since early Nov. Could be tired, but I like the = divergence=20 between price and RSI. Price is hitting new highs while RSI has = a little=20 room to grow. Does it have enough steam to break through the = all-time=20 high of around 20?
 
Support: = Around=20 50-day EMA (14.72)
 
Resistance: Around=20 all-time high established 2Q1998 (~20)
 
- ------=_NextPart_000_0244_01C1949A.7930CBC0-- - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ End of canslim-digest V2 #2004 ****************************** To unsubscribe to canslim-digest, send an email to "majordomo@xmission.com" with "unsubscribe canslim-digest" in the body of the message. For information on digests or retrieving files and old messages send "help" to the same address. Do not use quotes in your message.