From: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com (canslim-digest) To: canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Subject: canslim-digest V2 #2043 Reply-To: canslim Sender: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Errors-To: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Precedence: bulk Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable X-No-Archive: yes canslim-digest Wednesday, January 16 2002 Volume 02 : Number 2043 In this issue: Re: [CANSLIM] Contrarian Re: [CANSLIM] Contrarian Re: [CANSLIM] Contrarian Re: [CANSLIM] Contrarian Re: Re: [CANSLIM] Contrarian AW: [CANSLIM] Contrarian RE: [CANSLIM] Contrarian [CANSLIM] UTSI [CANSLIM] Date: Wed, 16 Jan 2002 22:04:50 +0100 Re: [CANSLIM] Date: Wed, 16 Jan 2002 22:04:50 +0100 Re: [CANSLIM] Date: Wed, 16 Jan 2002 22:04:50 +0100 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Date: Wed, 16 Jan 2002 11:08:30 -0500 From: "Dan Forant" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Contrarian Forget about being anti-CANSLIM. It's your business whether you stay in or not. DanF - ----- Original Message ----- From: "Dave" To: Sent: Wednesday, January 16, 2002 10:09 AM Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] Contrarian > And if today, the markets should turn around and go positive on higher > volume, that final distribution day may never come. > > I've bailed too early in the past, only to watch my prior holdings weather > the brief storm and move higher. I don't think it's anti-CANSLIM to wait > until the rally is truly broken to make the final leap out of the market. > > > > -----Original Message----- > > From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com > > [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of Tim Fisher > > Sent: Wednesday, January 16, 2002 9:51 AM > > To: canslim@lists.xmission.com > > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Contrarian > > > > > > Who cares? Once again, if you trade CANSLIM, you follow the M's buy and > > sell signals. This is an "everybody out of the pool" signal. We are 1 > > distribution day from a broken rally. > > > > At 09:42 AM 1/16/2002 -0500, you wrote: > > >With all the bearishness on the list the last couple days, I > > wonder if the > > >market is ready to turn around and move higher soon. After all, the > > >markets have gone through quite a correction the past few > > weeks, and the > > >Nasdaq is still above its 50 and 200 day averages. > > > > > >Things do look ugly, and I'm selling some positions, but I > > wonder if this > > >is really doom and gloom or just a pause... > > > > > > > > >- > > >-To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" > > >-In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > > >-"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. > > > > Tim Fisher > > Ore-ROCK-On Rockhounding Web Site > > Pacific Fishery Biologists Information > > mailto:tim@OreRockOn.com > > WWW http://OreRockOn.com > > > > > > - > > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" > > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. > > > > > - > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. > - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: 16 Jan 2002 09:24:41 -0800 From: "Tim Fisher" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Contrarian I'm glad you see it that way. My stocks told me to get out, so I sold them. I would have been out another 5k+ if I hadn't. WON says to let your stocks tell you when to sell; mine were screaming sell the past 5 trading days or more. And if we get a dist day today, that's 4; 1 more and the signal will be triggered. That's what I meant when I said everybody out of the pool. At 09:02 AM 1/16/2002 -0600, you wrote: >I don't see it that way, Tim. Naz has only had 3 distribution days in the >last 10. Each was followed by accumulation days. That's definitely not an >"everybody out of the pool" whistle. It's a "perk up and pay attention" >marker, but that's it. Despite distribution in some of the recent B/O's, >only KKD has fallen below pivot. Other good quality CANSLIM stocks are >holding up just fine if one took proper entries on well formed bases. "M" >is a market of stocks. If the right stocks are doing "the right thing" >then I say we can sit on the edge of the pool and keep our feet in the >water. The water's fine. > >Katherine >----- Original Message ----- >From: Tim Fisher >To: canslim@lists.xmission.com >Sent: Wednesday, January 16, 2002 8:50 AM >Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Contrarian > >Who cares? Once again, if you trade CANSLIM, you follow the M's buy and >sell signals. This is an "everybody out of the pool" signal. We are 1 >distribution day from a broken rally. > >At 09:42 AM 1/16/2002 -0500, you wrote: > >With all the bearishness on the list the last couple days, I wonder if the > >market is ready to turn around and move higher soon. After all, the > >markets have gone through quite a correction the past few weeks, and the > >Nasdaq is still above its 50 and 200 day averages. > > > >Things do look ugly, and I'm selling some positions, but I wonder if this > >is really doom and gloom or just a pause... > > > > > >- > >-To subscribe/unsubscribe, email > "majordomo@xmission.com" > >-In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > >-"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. > >Tim Fisher >Ore-ROCK-On Rockhounding Web Site >Pacific Fishery Biologists Information >mailto:tim@OreRockOn.com >WWW http://OreRockOn.com > > > >- >-To subscribe/unsubscribe, email >"majordomo@xmission.com" >-In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or >-"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. Tim Fisher Ore-ROCK-On Rockhounding Web Site Pacific Fishery Biologists Information mailto:tim@OreRockOn.com WWW http://OreRockOn.com - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 16 Jan 2002 13:08:45 -0500 From: "Dan Forant" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Contrarian Common sense beats all stock systems. Imagine getting stopped out at 8% on all holdings when news has been bad. Even a mole could see this storm coming. DanF - ----- Original Message ----- From: "Tim Fisher" To: Sent: Wednesday, January 16, 2002 12:24 PM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Contrarian > I'm glad you see it that way. My stocks told me to get out, so I sold them. > I would have been out another 5k+ if I hadn't. WON says to let your stocks > tell you when to sell; mine were screaming sell the past 5 trading days or > more. And if we get a dist day today, that's 4; 1 more and the signal will > be triggered. That's what I meant when I said everybody out of the pool. > > At 09:02 AM 1/16/2002 -0600, you wrote: > >I don't see it that way, Tim. Naz has only had 3 distribution days in the > >last 10. Each was followed by accumulation days. That's definitely not an > >"everybody out of the pool" whistle. It's a "perk up and pay attention" > >marker, but that's it. Despite distribution in some of the recent B/O's, > >only KKD has fallen below pivot. Other good quality CANSLIM stocks are > >holding up just fine if one took proper entries on well formed bases. "M" > >is a market of stocks. If the right stocks are doing "the right thing" > >then I say we can sit on the edge of the pool and keep our feet in the > >water. The water's fine. > > > >Katherine > >----- Original Message ----- > >From: Tim Fisher > >To: canslim@lists.xmission.com > >Sent: Wednesday, January 16, 2002 8:50 AM > >Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Contrarian > > > >Who cares? Once again, if you trade CANSLIM, you follow the M's buy and > >sell signals. This is an "everybody out of the pool" signal. We are 1 > >distribution day from a broken rally. > > > >At 09:42 AM 1/16/2002 -0500, you wrote: > > >With all the bearishness on the list the last couple days, I wonder if the > > >market is ready to turn around and move higher soon. After all, the > > >markets have gone through quite a correction the past few weeks, and the > > >Nasdaq is still above its 50 and 200 day averages. > > > > > >Things do look ugly, and I'm selling some positions, but I wonder if this > > >is really doom and gloom or just a pause... > > > > > > > > >- > > >-To subscribe/unsubscribe, email > > "majordomo@xmission.com" > > >-In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > > >-"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. > > > >Tim Fisher > >Ore-ROCK-On Rockhounding Web Site > >Pacific Fishery Biologists Information > >mailto:tim@OreRockOn.com > >WWW http://OreRockOn.com > > > > > > > >- > >-To subscribe/unsubscribe, email > >"majordomo@xmission.com" > >-In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > >-"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. > > Tim Fisher > Ore-ROCK-On Rockhounding Web Site > Pacific Fishery Biologists Information > mailto:tim@OreRockOn.com > WWW http://OreRockOn.com > > > - > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. > - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 16 Jan 2002 10:33:20 -0800 From: Ian Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Contrarian If you follow the ARMS index (aka the TRIN), you would see that there has been a stealth amount of bearishness in the DOW over the last 13 days. Last Friday, the 10-day ARMS index hit 1.3, which has historically been an indicator of a substantial panic (the BIG panics have it going over 1.5, and are rare). So even though the investor polls are coming back showing high levels of bullishness, and minimal bearishness, the selling pressure has not reflected that. The stocks that have carried me for the last few months (ELTE, CEDC, NMHC, QMDC) have all been very strong/resilient as of late as well. No sell signals from any of them yet. Just my 2 cents. Ian - ----- Original Message ----- From: Tom Worley To: Sent: Wednesday, January 16, 2002 6:48 AM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Contrarian > Hi Dave, > > Judging just from all my small caps, I think we may be in for a period of > consolidation for a week or more. My small caps have been moving in > inconsistent fashion, fortunately on low volume for the most part. But the > markets are moderately overbought, so some consolidation is in order. We > need more bearish sentiment to move any higher. > > Tom Worley > stkguru@netside.net > AIM: TexWorley > ----- Original Message ----- > From: "Dave" > To: > Sent: Wednesday, January 16, 2002 9:42 AM > Subject: [CANSLIM] Contrarian > > > > With all the bearishness on the list the last couple days, I wonder if the > > market is ready to turn around and move higher soon. After all, the > > markets have gone through quite a correction the past few weeks, and the > > Nasdaq is still above its 50 and 200 day averages. > > > > Things do look ugly, and I'm selling some positions, but I wonder if this > > is really doom and gloom or just a pause... > > > > > > - > > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" > > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. > > > > > > > > - > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 16 Jan 2002 13:32:28 -0500 From: Subject: Re: Re: [CANSLIM] Contrarian I'm unfamiliar with either index. ANy recommended websties that have and/or explain them? Thanks! Rolf canslim@lists.xmission.com wrote: > If you follow the ARMS index (aka the TRIN), you would see that there hasbeen a stealth amount of bearishness in the DOW over the last 13 days. Last Friday, the 10-day ARMS index hit 1.3, which has historically been an indicator of a substantial panic (the BIG panics have it going over 1.5, and are rare). So even though the investor polls are coming back showing high levels of bullishness, and minimal bearishness, the selling pressure has not reflected that. The stocks that have carried me for the last few months (ELTE, CEDC, NMHC, QMDC) have all been very strong/resilient as of late as well. No sell signals from any of them yet. Just my 2 cents. Ian - ----- Original Message ----- From: Tom Worley To: Sent: Wednesday, January 16, 2002 6:48 AM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Contrarian > Hi Dave, > > Judging just from all my small caps, I think we may be in for a period of > consolidation for a week or more. My small caps have been moving in > inconsistent fashion, fortunately on low volume for the most part. But the > markets are moderately overbought, so some consolidation is in order. We > need more bearish sentiment to move any higher. > > Tom Worley > stkguru@netside.net > AIM: TexWorley > ----- Original Message ----- > From: "Dave" > To: > Sent: Wednesday, January 16, 2002 9:42 AM > Subject: [CANSLIM] Contrarian > > > > With all the bearishness on the list the last couple days, I wonder if the > > market is ready to turn around and move higher soon. After all, the > > markets have gone through quite a correction the past few weeks, and the > > Nasdaq is still above its 50 and 200 day averages. > > > > Things do look ugly, and I'm selling some positions, but I wonder if this > > is really doom and gloom or just a pause... > > > > > > - > > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" > > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. > > > > > > > > - > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 16 Jan 2002 19:38:23 +0100 From: Andreas Himmelreich Subject: AW: [CANSLIM] Contrarian DFXI, MME and TTIL hold up well, so here I sit and think of what to do ... I gues I do nothing until they give sell signals ... > -----Ursprungliche Nachricht----- > Von: Ian [SMTP:ianstm@shaw.ca] > Gesendet am: Wednesday, January 16, 2002 7:33 PM > An: canslim@lists.xmission.com > Betreff: Re: [CANSLIM] Contrarian > > If you follow the ARMS index (aka the TRIN), you would see that there has > been a stealth amount of bearishness in the DOW over the last 13 days. Last > Friday, the 10-day ARMS index hit 1.3, which has historically been an > indicator of a substantial panic (the BIG panics have it going over 1.5, and > are rare). > > So even though the investor polls are coming back showing high levels of > bullishness, and minimal bearishness, the selling pressure has not reflected > that. > > The stocks that have carried me for the last few months (ELTE, CEDC, NMHC, > QMDC) have all been very strong/resilient as of late as well. No sell > signals from any of them yet. > > Just my 2 cents. > > Ian > > > > > > > > ----- Original Message ----- > From: Tom Worley > To: > Sent: Wednesday, January 16, 2002 6:48 AM > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Contrarian > > > > Hi Dave, > > > > Judging just from all my small caps, I think we may be in for a period of > > consolidation for a week or more. My small caps have been moving in > > inconsistent fashion, fortunately on low volume for the most part. But the > > markets are moderately overbought, so some consolidation is in order. We > > need more bearish sentiment to move any higher. > > > > Tom Worley > > stkguru@netside.net > > AIM: TexWorley > > ----- Original Message ----- > > From: "Dave" > > To: > > Sent: Wednesday, January 16, 2002 9:42 AM > > Subject: [CANSLIM] Contrarian > > > > > > > With all the bearishness on the list the last couple days, I wonder if > the > > > market is ready to turn around and move higher soon. After all, the > > > markets have gone through quite a correction the past few weeks, and the > > > Nasdaq is still above its 50 and 200 day averages. > > > > > > Things do look ugly, and I'm selling some positions, but I wonder if > this > > > is really doom and gloom or just a pause... > > > > > > > > > - > > > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" > > > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > > > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > - > > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" > > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. > > > - > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 16 Jan 2002 13:56:28 -0500 From: "Dave" Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] Contrarian I sold DFXI today for a small profit. In my opinion yesterday's action is not what you want to see after a breakout. At a minimum it shows indecision on the part of investors. Technically it has violated the pivot only breifly but with the market raising some warning flags I think DFXI has a high probability of falling back into its base. > -----Original Message----- > From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com > [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of Andreas > Himmelreich > Sent: Wednesday, January 16, 2002 1:38 PM > To: 'canslim@lists.xmission.com' > Subject: AW: [CANSLIM] Contrarian > > > DFXI, MME and TTIL hold up well, so here I sit and think of > what to do ... I gues I do nothing until they give sell signals ... > > > -----Ursprungliche Nachricht----- > > Von: Ian [SMTP:ianstm@shaw.ca] > > Gesendet am: Wednesday, January 16, 2002 7:33 PM > > An: canslim@lists.xmission.com > > Betreff: Re: [CANSLIM] Contrarian > > > > If you follow the ARMS index (aka the TRIN), you would see > that there has > > been a stealth amount of bearishness in the DOW over the last > 13 days. Last > > Friday, the 10-day ARMS index hit 1.3, which has historically been an > > indicator of a substantial panic (the BIG panics have it > going over 1.5, and > > are rare). > > > > So even though the investor polls are coming back showing > high levels of > > bullishness, and minimal bearishness, the selling pressure > has not reflected > > that. > > > > The stocks that have carried me for the last few months > (ELTE, CEDC, NMHC, > > QMDC) have all been very strong/resilient as of late as well. No sell > > signals from any of them yet. > > > > Just my 2 cents. > > > > Ian > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > ----- Original Message ----- > > From: Tom Worley > > To: > > Sent: Wednesday, January 16, 2002 6:48 AM > > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Contrarian > > > > > > > Hi Dave, > > > > > > Judging just from all my small caps, I think we may be in > for a period of > > > consolidation for a week or more. My small caps have been moving in > > > inconsistent fashion, fortunately on low volume for the > most part. But the > > > markets are moderately overbought, so some consolidation is > in order. We > > > need more bearish sentiment to move any higher. > > > > > > Tom Worley > > > stkguru@netside.net > > > AIM: TexWorley > > > ----- Original Message ----- > > > From: "Dave" > > > To: > > > Sent: Wednesday, January 16, 2002 9:42 AM > > > Subject: [CANSLIM] Contrarian > > > > > > > > > > With all the bearishness on the list the last couple > days, I wonder if > > the > > > > market is ready to turn around and move higher soon. > After all, the > > > > markets have gone through quite a correction the past few > weeks, and the > > > > Nasdaq is still above its 50 and 200 day averages. > > > > > > > > Things do look ugly, and I'm selling some positions, but > I wonder if > > this > > > > is really doom and gloom or just a pause... > > > > > > > > > > > > - > > > > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" > > > > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > > > > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > - > > > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" > > > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > > > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. > > > > > > - > > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" > > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. > > - > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. > - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 16 Jan 2002 14:49:58 -0500 From: "Dave" Subject: [CANSLIM] UTSI UTSI tanking, and against the trend of the Nasdaq. It's approaching the 50 day moving average. Will it find support there, or tank further? Most of my gains have been wiped out. Yet another nice breakout showing signs of collapse. Should have considered the move to 35 a "climax run" I guess... - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 16 Jan 2002 14:00:20 -0700 From: Andreas Himmelreich Subject: [CANSLIM] Date: Wed, 16 Jan 2002 22:04:50 +0100 Pretty strange what is happening with DYII. Stock has good fundamentals, yet its down 30%? Industry Group kind of OK as well, even winning Relative Strength. Strange. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 16 Jan 2002 15:02:35 -0600 From: "Katherine Malm" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Date: Wed, 16 Jan 2002 22:04:50 +0100 This is a multi-part message in MIME format. - ------=_NextPart_000_0056_01C19E9E.D4E84DE0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable 15:24 ET Dynacq Int'l (DYII) 20.70 -3.60 (-14.8%): Shares of acute care = hospital operator said to be under pressure in reaction to a Herb = Greenberg column discussing co's below-industry-avg allowance for = doubtful accounts, co compensation to the one analyst covering the stk, = and a recent conference call during which the CFO stumbled over several = accounting issues. ----- Original Message -----=20 From: Andreas Himmelreich=20 To: 'canslim@lists.xmission.com'=20 Sent: Wednesday, January 16, 2002 3:00 PM Subject: [CANSLIM] Date: Wed, 16 Jan 2002 22:04:50 +0100 Pretty strange what is happening with DYII. Stock has good fundamentals, yet its down 30%? Industry Group kind of = OK as well, even winning Relative Strength. Strange. - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - ------=_NextPart_000_0056_01C19E9E.D4E84DE0 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
15:24 ET Dynacq Int'l (DYII) 20.70 = - -3.60=20 (-14.8%): Shares of acute care hospital operator said to be under = pressure in=20 reaction to a Herb Greenberg column discussing co's=20 below-industry-avg allowance for doubtful accounts, co compensation to = the one=20 analyst covering the stk, and a recent conference call during which the = CFO=20 stumbled over several accounting issues.
----- Original Message -----
From:=20 Andreas = Himmelreich
Sent: Wednesday, January 16, = 2002 3:00=20 PM
Subject: [CANSLIM] Date: Wed, = 16 Jan 2002=20 22:04:50 +0100

Pretty strange what is happening with = DYII.

Stock has=20 good fundamentals, yet its down 30%? Industry Group kind of OK as = well, even=20 winning Relative Strength.

Strange.

-
-To=20 subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com"
-In= the=20 email body, write "subscribe canslim" or
-"unsubscribe = canslim".  Do=20 not use quotes in your email. - ------=_NextPart_000_0056_01C19E9E.D4E84DE0-- - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 16 Jan 2002 15:03:48 -0600 From: "Katherine Malm" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Date: Wed, 16 Jan 2002 22:04:50 +0100 This is a multi-part message in MIME format. - ------=_NextPart_000_005E_01C19E9F.00268E40 Content-Type: multipart/alternative; boundary="----=_NextPart_001_005F_01C19E9F.00268E40" - ------=_NextPart_001_005F_01C19E9F.00268E40 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable =20 =20 Herb on TheStreet Dynacq's Doubtful Accounts Send Distress Signals By Herb Greenberg Senior Columnist 01/16/2002 02:46 PM EST URL: http://www.thestreet.com/p/rmoney/herbonthestreet-rm/10006859.html When it comes to red flags, so many are flying over Dynacq International = (DYII:Nasdaq - news - commentary) that it's hard to count. Dynacq owns = and manages an acute care hospital in Pasadena, Texas, where it manages = three physician practices. It also operates two outpatient surgical = facilities and a medical office complex.=20 The only analyst covering the company, Gary Weber of Taglich Brothers, = rates it a buy. That Dynacq pays Taglich for that coverage is reason = enough to warrant caution: The disclosure is right there in the fine = print of the analyst's report.=20 But in recent quarters there have been numerous other issues that, by = themselves, would warrant a mention here. For example, Dynacq's = allowance for doubtful accounts -- something every CFO should know like = the back of his or her hand -- has been hovering around the 1% range, = which is far below the level used by such rivals as HCA (HCA:NYSE - news = - - commentary) , Tenet (THC:NYSE - news - commentary) and Universal = (UHS:NYSE - news - commentary) . Yet when asked about the amount of the = allowance on the company's bizarre conference call Tuesday, CFO Philip = Chan couldn't answer the question.=20 The dialogue is worth the price of admission.=20 Caller: Could you give us where allowance for doubtful accounts stands = right now, please?=20 CFO: Are you asking the provision for uncollectable accounts of = $41,673 on the income statement? Or are you talking about...=20 Caller: I'm talking about the reserve -- the allowance for doubtful = accounts that would be against your gross receivables so that you have = - -- you report net accounts receivable. What is your allowance for = doubtful accounts? What's your reserve that's been built up over time?=20 CFO: The way we present our [unintelligible] and net revenue and that = is the gross revenue minus, I believe, what you are talking about the = reserve for uncollectible portion from insurance company or third party. = Caller: Uh, either one. Let me, maybe if I can contrast it where it = was in the 10-K. ... Anyway, it's a standard nomenclature. It's called = allowance for doubtful accounts. ... It was $193,000 in August. Do you = know what it is now, please?=20 CFO: Let me turn my page on the same page that you are saying ... a = minute.=20 Caller: All right, let me -- maybe I can go on while he's searching = that. If I could ask another question here...=20 And so it was! The entire call was pretty much like that.=20 Take the same caller's question about the company's revenue per hospital = bed, which appears to be much higher than the average for the acute care = hospital industry.=20 Caller: You have 37 beds and in the hospital you had revenues in here = of just under $9 million, and that equates somewhere to about a = quarter-million dollars revenue per bed. That is substantially higher = than industry averages. Why is that?=20 CEO Chiu Chan (who, according to the 10-K is not related to the CFO): = We are not general acute hospital. We are surgical hospital.=20 Not an acute care hospital?! The company itself says in its 10-K, filed = Nov. 27, that it is engaged in "the ownership and management of an acute = care hospital."=20 The caller continues, saying that revenue at Dynacq's clinic and = outpatient surgical center, which had been a key driver of Dynacq's = growth, was "down about 7% year over year. At the same time, the = hospital revenues just skyrocketed here. They were up 160% or = something."=20 CEO Chan: Well, as you can see, we are aligning our company towards -- = we are now saying that Dynacq is a surgical hospital company. We are a = surgical hospital company. That is the direction which we are going. So, = right now all the focus is, the management focus is a surgical hospital = company.=20 Chan later added: "The reason why we are trying to do this is because we = listen to a lot of the research analysts or those brokers about a single = focus company enhance our shareholder value a lot better than getting = more -- all this kind of other business. ... So, the other thing which = is not surgical hospital business is going to go gradually -- scale = down."=20 But last March Dynacq purchased a second ambulatory or outpatient = surgery center. Now it's saying that that part of the business will no = longer be a focus?!=20 The conference call continued. A different caller noted that the company = had "very impressive" 12% revenue growth in the fourth quarter from the = third quarter. "But it appears net income may have declined slightly = quarter to quarter. Is that the case?"=20 CEO: Net income? No. I don't think so. Net income actually go up.=20 Caller No. 2: I backed out that the fourth quarter net income was = about $3,490,000. ... I have this quarter at about $3,378,000. So, maybe = a 3% or so decline in net income, and you had 12% sequential revenue = growth. I'm just curious where...=20 The CEO then started talking about how earnings per share of 23 cents = were higher than the prior quarter's 22 cents, then the CFO injected:=20 CFO: Your math ... could be very well correct. The thing that may = confuse a little bit during the fourth quarter is where we have the = annual audit come in and make all the adjustments. There's no = significant adjustment that we made. You may be able to look at the = income tax provision for the fourth quarter, which kind of declined = pretty significantly from the periods before. That is the time that the = auditor come in and look our annual income tax situation.=20 Caller No. 2: OK ... the real question I'm driving at ... it appears = that your profit margins came down quite a bit from quarter to quarter = [net profit margin was down nearly 4 percentage points from the fourth = quarter to the first quarter] ... and I'm just wondering if you could = comment a little bit on why the profit margins ... contracted, and = again, is this something we should expect going forward?=20 CEO: If you look at the number for the whole fiscal year last year, = our profit margin is ... 25.3. Therefore our net margin is 24.7 or 24.6. = So we are talking about a decimal point percentage difference, and I = don't think it's something of anybody's concern.=20 Year over year, maybe, but quarter to quarter it's nearly 4 percentage = points. That's certainly somebody's concern. But I digress, as the call = returned to the subject of the allowance for doubtful accounts.=20 Caller No. 1: I wondered if you'd had a chance to find that answer on = the allowance for doubtful accounts on accounts receivable?=20 CFO: I tried to find out the real question -- all on income statement, = the only provision for uncollectible account is -- for this quarter is = $41,670 ... before talk about $137,000 -- I don't know what number you = have been looking at.=20 Caller No. 1: $193,000 is what it was in August.=20 CFO: In August $193,000?=20 Caller No. 1: August of '01.=20 CFO: Hold on. He never did answer the question.=20 Finally, back to the question of paying a brokerage firm to cover the = company, another caller said:=20 Caller No. 3: I'm showing Gary Weber of Taglich Brothers is the only = analyst following the company. On the footer of their report it says his = firm was paid by Dynacq to write it. Are there any other nonaffiliated = research reports for analyst coverage?=20 CEO: Taglich Brothers, yes, we paid for them for the analyst report to = be written in the beginning. Now, what we are paying them is a quarterly = fee to actually have that report available at their Web site. So we = don't pay them to write about us anymore, and we do not have any other = analysts following this company yet.=20 Caller No. 3: How much do you pay them?=20 CFO: $1,250 a month.=20 Isn't that a conflict? Not according to Bob Taglich of Taglich Brothers. = He told me: "They are independent reports. In the micro-cap market, = unless you have potential million-dollar fees coming in, it's very = difficult for a brokerage firm to cover small firms for research."=20 Doesn't that mean they're buying an opinion?=20 "They're not buying an opinion," Taglich says. "We have some stocks that = aren't rated." He adds that there is a weeding-out process on companies = Taglich agrees to cover, and notes that whether it's hard cash or = through investment banking business, companies pay for coverage "one way = or the other ... at least we properly disclose it."=20 He may have a point there. Not that it's the right thing to do -- = disclosed or otherwise.=20 - -------------------------------------------------------------------------= - ------- Herb Greenberg writes daily for TheStreet.com. In keeping with TSC's = editorial policy, he doesn't own or short individual stocks, though he = owns stock in TheStreet.com. He also doesn't invest in hedge funds or = other private investment partnerships. He welcomes your feedback and = invites you to send any to Herb Greenberg. Greenberg also writes a = monthly column for Fortune.=20 Brian Harris and Mark Martinez assisted with the reporting of this = column.=20 - -------------------------------------------------------------------------= - ------- ----- Original Message -----=20 From: Andreas Himmelreich=20 To: 'canslim@lists.xmission.com'=20 Sent: Wednesday, January 16, 2002 3:00 PM Subject: [CANSLIM] Date: Wed, 16 Jan 2002 22:04:50 +0100 Pretty strange what is happening with DYII. Stock has good fundamentals, yet its down 30%? Industry Group kind of = OK as well, even winning Relative Strength. Strange. - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - ------=_NextPart_001_005F_01C19E9F.00268E40 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
 

Herb on=20 TheStreet
Dynacq's Doubtful Accounts Send Distress = Signals
By Herb Greenberg
Senior=20 Columnist

01/16/2002 02:46 PM EST
URL: http://www.thestreet.com/p/rmoney/herbonthestreet-rm/10006859.html=

When it comes to red flags, so many are flying over Dynacq=20 International (DYII:Nasdaq - news - commentary) that it's hard to = count.=20 Dynacq owns and manages an acute care hospital in Pasadena, Texas, where = it=20 manages three physician practices. It also operates two outpatient = surgical=20 facilities and a medical office complex.=20

The only analyst covering the company, Gary Weber of Taglich = Brothers,=20 rates it a buy. That Dynacq pays Taglich for that coverage is reason = enough to=20 warrant caution: The disclosure is right there in the fine print of the=20 analyst's report.

But in recent quarters there have been numerous other issues = that, by=20 themselves, would warrant a mention here. For example, Dynacq's = allowance for=20 doubtful accounts -- something every CFO should know like the back of = his or her=20 hand -- has been hovering around the 1% range, which is far below = the=20 level used by such rivals as HCA (HCA:NYSE - news - commentary) , = Tenet (THC:NYSE - news - commentary) and Universal = (UHS:NYSE -=20 news - commentary) . Yet when asked about the amount of the allowance on = the=20 company's bizarre conference call Tuesday, CFO Philip Chan couldn't = answer the=20 question.=20

The dialogue is worth the price of admission.=20

Caller: Could you give us where allowance for doubtful = accounts=20 stands right now, please?=20

CFO: Are you asking the provision for uncollectable = accounts of=20 $41,673 on the income statement? Or are you talking about...=20

Caller: I'm talking about the reserve -- the allowance = for=20 doubtful accounts that would be against your gross receivables so that = you=20 have -- you report net accounts receivable. What is your allowance for = doubtful accounts? What's your reserve that's been built up over time? =

CFO: The way we present our [unintelligible] and net = revenue and=20 that is the gross revenue minus, I believe, what you are talking about = the=20 reserve for uncollectible portion from insurance company or third = party.=20

Caller: Uh, either one. Let me, maybe if I can contrast = it where=20 it was in the 10-K. ... Anyway, it's a standard nomenclature. It's = called=20 allowance for doubtful accounts. ... It was $193,000 in August. Do you = know=20 what it is now, please?=20

CFO: Let me turn my page on the same page that you are = saying=20 ... a minute.=20

Caller: All right, let me -- maybe I can go on while = he's=20 searching that. If I could ask another question here...

And so it was! The entire call was pretty much like that.=20

Take the same caller's question about the company's revenue per = hospital=20 bed, which appears to be much higher than the average for the acute care = hospital industry.=20

Caller: You have 37 beds and in the hospital you had = revenues in=20 here of just under $9 million, and that equates somewhere to about a=20 quarter-million dollars revenue per bed. That is substantially higher = than=20 industry averages. Why is that?=20

CEO Chiu Chan (who, according to the 10-K is not = related=20 to the CFO): We are not general acute hospital. We are surgical = hospital.=20

Not an acute care hospital?! The company itself says in its 10-K, = filed=20 Nov. 27, that it is engaged in "the ownership and management of an acute = care=20 hospital."=20

The caller continues, saying that revenue at Dynacq's clinic and=20 outpatient surgical center, which had been a key driver of Dynacq's = growth, was=20 "down about 7% year over year. At the same time, the hospital revenues = just=20 skyrocketed here. They were up 160% or something."=20

CEO Chan: Well, as you can see, we are aligning our = company=20 towards -- we are now saying that Dynacq is a surgical hospital = company. We=20 are a surgical hospital company. That is the direction which we are = going. So,=20 right now all the focus is, the management focus is a surgical = hospital=20 company.

Chan later added: "The reason why we are trying to do this is = because we=20 listen to a lot of the research analysts or those brokers about a single = focus=20 company enhance our shareholder value a lot better than getting more -- = all this=20 kind of other business. ... So, the other thing which is not surgical = hospital=20 business is going to go gradually -- scale down."=20

But last March Dynacq purchased a second ambulatory or outpatient = surgery=20 center. Now it's saying that that part of the business will no = longer be=20 a focus?!=20

The conference call continued. A different caller noted that the = company=20 had "very impressive" 12% revenue growth in the fourth quarter from the = third=20 quarter. "But it appears net income may have declined slightly quarter = to=20 quarter. Is that the case?"=20

CEO: Net income? No. I don't think so. Net income = actually go=20 up.=20

Caller No. 2: I backed out that the fourth quarter net = income=20 was about $3,490,000. ... I have this quarter at about $3,378,000. So, = maybe a=20 3% or so decline in net income, and you had 12% sequential revenue = growth. I'm=20 just curious where...

The CEO then started talking about how earnings per share of 23 = cents=20 were higher than the prior quarter's 22 cents, then the CFO injected:=20

CFO: Your math ... could be very well correct. The thing = that=20 may confuse a little bit during the fourth quarter is where we have = the annual=20 audit come in and make all the adjustments. There's no significant = adjustment=20 that we made. You may be able to look at the income tax provision for = the=20 fourth quarter, which kind of declined pretty significantly from the = periods=20 before. That is the time that the auditor come in and look our annual = income=20 tax situation.=20

Caller No. 2: OK ... the real question I'm driving at = ... it=20 appears that your profit margins came down quite a bit from quarter to = quarter=20 [net profit margin was down nearly 4 percentage points from the fourth = quarter=20 to the first quarter] ... and I'm just wondering if you could comment = a little=20 bit on why the profit margins ... contracted, and again, is this = something we=20 should expect going forward?=20

CEO: If you look at the number for the whole fiscal year = last=20 year, our profit margin is ... 25.3. Therefore our net margin is 24.7 = or 24.6.=20 So we are talking about a decimal point percentage difference, and I = don't=20 think it's something of anybody's concern.

Year over year, maybe, but quarter to quarter it's nearly 4 = percentage=20 points. That's certainly somebody's concern. But I digress, as the call = returned=20 to the subject of the allowance for doubtful accounts.=20

Caller No. 1: I wondered if you'd had a chance to find = that=20 answer on the allowance for doubtful accounts on accounts receivable?=20

CFO: I tried to find out the real question -- all on = income=20 statement, the only provision for uncollectible account is -- for this = quarter=20 is $41,670 ... before talk about $137,000 -- I don't know what number = you have=20 been looking at.=20

Caller No. 1: $193,000 is what it was in August.=20

CFO: In August $193,000?=20

Caller No. 1: August of '01.=20

CFO: Hold on.

He never did answer the question.=20

Finally, back to the question of paying a brokerage firm to cover = the=20 company, another caller said:=20

Caller No. 3: I'm showing Gary Weber of Taglich Brothers = is the=20 only analyst following the company. On the footer of their report it = says his=20 firm was paid by Dynacq to write it. Are there any other nonaffiliated = research reports for analyst coverage?=20

CEO: Taglich Brothers, yes, we paid for them for the = analyst=20 report to be written in the beginning. Now, what we are paying them is = a=20 quarterly fee to actually have that report available at their Web = site. So we=20 don't pay them to write about us anymore, and we do not have any other = analysts following this company yet.=20

Caller No. 3: How much do you pay them?=20

CFO: $1,250 a month.

Isn't that a conflict? Not according to Bob Taglich of Taglich = Brothers.=20 He told me: "They are independent reports. In the micro-cap market, = unless you=20 have potential million-dollar fees coming in, it's very difficult for a=20 brokerage firm to cover small firms for research."=20

Doesn't that mean they're buying an opinion?=20

"They're not buying an opinion," Taglich says. "We have some = stocks that=20 aren't rated." He adds that there is a weeding-out process on companies = Taglich=20 agrees to cover, and notes that whether it's hard cash or through = investment=20 banking business, companies pay for coverage "one way or the other ... = at least=20 we properly disclose it."=20

He may have a point there. Not that it's the right thing to do -- = disclosed or otherwise.=20
Herb Greenberg = writes daily=20 for TheStreet.com. In keeping with TSC's editorial policy, he doesn't = own or=20 short individual stocks, though he owns stock in TheStreet.com. He also = doesn't=20 invest in hedge funds or other private investment partnerships. He = welcomes your=20 feedback and invites you to send any to Herb Greenberg. Greenberg = also writes=20 a monthly column for Fortune.=20

Brian Harris and Mark Martinez assisted with the reporting of = this=20 column.
----- Original Message -----
From:=20 Andreas = Himmelreich
Sent: Wednesday, January 16, = 2002 3:00=20 PM
Subject: [CANSLIM] Date: Wed, = 16 Jan 2002=20 22:04:50 +0100

Pretty strange what is happening with = DYII.

Stock has=20 good fundamentals, yet its down 30%? Industry Group kind of OK as = well, even=20 winning Relative Strength.

Strange.

-
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