From: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com (canslim-digest) To: canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Subject: canslim-digest V2 #2060 Reply-To: canslim Sender: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Errors-To: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Precedence: bulk Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable X-No-Archive: yes canslim-digest Saturday, January 19 2002 Volume 02 : Number 2060 In this issue: Re: Re:ELTE (was [CANSLIM] Katherine-Opinion please?] Re: Re:ELTE (was [CANSLIM] Katherine-Opinion please?] Re: Re:ELTE (was [CANSLIM] Katherine-Opinion please?] ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Date: Sat, 19 Jan 2002 08:09:35 -0600 From: "Katherine Malm" Subject: Re: Re:ELTE (was [CANSLIM] Katherine-Opinion please?] This is a multi-part message in MIME format. - ------=_NextPart_000_0045_01C1A0C0.A1DF1040 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable Tom, Ian Just curious...where do you get $.16/Q EPS estimates? I took a *very* = quick glance at the last 10Q, are you basing this on the acquisition in = 2000? Katherine ----- Original Message -----=20 From: Tom Worley=20 To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20 Sent: Saturday, January 19, 2002 12:25 AM Subject: Re: Re:ELTE (was [CANSLIM] Katherine-Opinion please?] I agree, Ian. My second trip on this stock has nearly made up the loss = from the first voyage. Looks more promising now than the first time I = tried it. Sequential growth particularly impressive. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net AIM: TexWorley ----- Original Message -----=20 From: Ian=20 To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20 Sent: Friday, January 18, 2002 8:01 PM Subject: Re: Re:ELTE (was [CANSLIM] Katherine-Opinion please?] Thanks a lot for the chart analysis. The low volume during the new = high to $13.50, and the high volume/no progress days on 1/10, 1/11, and = 1/15 were the things that concerned me. I convinced myself that the = low-volume high was just a case of 'too much, too fast' off the $5 = October low. The recent high volume/no movement days are what concern = me. There shouldn't be much concern with P/E. The company claimed that = Q4 2001, and Q1 2002 were already filled with existing backlog, and I = figure that a minimum of $0.16 per Q is easy - so 4 months from now, the = ttm EPS will be at least $0.70 if not more, and the P/E at current = levels would be under 20. Given their industry group and recent growth = rate, a much higher price could easily be supported. But I would like to = see more signs of volume accumulation here.=20 After the next earnings report the IBD EPS ranking should go over = 85, and the RS is over 90 already, so it should start appearing on IBD = radar screens for the first time - including the weekend review. Perhaps = it will be a month or so before the next clear direction becomes = visible. Thanks again, Ian ----- Original Message -----=20 From: Katherine Malm=20 To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20 Sent: Friday, January 18, 2002 3:36 PM Subject: Re:ELTE (was [CANSLIM] Katherine-Opinion please?] Hi Ian, Your question has me wondering whether the sell rules that I = follow translate perfectly to thinly traded stocks. But I'll tell you = what I see and the way I would read it if I were to own it: -After the B/O at 7.13, stock moves up and consolidates for about = 5 weeks. This is a "valid" consolidation so that makes the previous base = low 8.01 which was printed on 11/23/01. -Just as a quick check for "overextension" that means that the = stock is 70% above the 200dMA (7.02), 15% above the 50dMA (10.43) and = 49.6% above the base low (8.01). It gets a yellow flag for being 70% = above the 200dMA according to WON's sell rule #34, but does not get a = red flag for the Rubberband Sell Rule. -After the consolidation and breakout 12/18 the stock has started = to show signs of stress. This could easily be market related, but no way = to tell. -1/2/02: New high on low volume. Red flag. -1/10/02 & 1/11/02- two days with little or no price progress on = high volume. Red flag. -With 1 yellow and 2 red flags I thought it worth doing a PE = Extension check. I've reconstructed the PE at the time of the B/O in = October using trailing EPS numbers for the prior quarters. That puts it = at $7.13/$.29 =3D 24.59. The extension warning would then be a forward = PE of 24.59*2.21=3D 54.3. Let's see. DGO doesn't have any estimates, = which means it isn't followed by enough analysts. I checked the internet = to see if I could find anything and ran across this EPS/Rev snapshot: = http://yahoo.marketguide.com/MGI/mg.asp?target=3D/stocks/companyinformati= on/highlights&Ticker=3DELTE I am alarmed by the essentially flat revenues over the last 4 = years, so I am going to go with the EPS estimates in my VectorVest = software which reads a measly $.02. That puts the current forward = looking PE at $11.98/$0.02 =3D 599! I'll have to mark that Red Flag. One note is that its industry is fairly healthy, consolidating = after rising, not overly extended and currently ranked in the 2nd = quartile. I'll let you take it from there! Katherine ----- Original Message -----=20 From: Ian=20 To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20 Sent: Friday, January 18, 2002 4:40 PM Subject: [CANSLIM] Katherine - Opinion please? Would tuesdays distribution day for ELTE make you exit the stock = at this point? Do you have any other insights into the chart? I would appreciate your analysis - it is the one big recent = winner I am wondering what to do with. Based on all of my past = experiences, and knowing the companies outlook, my gut tells me that it = needs to consolidate here, but will run into the $20's by mid-year. But = I'd rather listen to the chart. I fear I've held it long enough that I = may be complacent. Thank you. Ian - ------=_NextPart_000_0045_01C1A0C0.A1DF1040 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
Tom, Ian
 
Just curious...where do you get $.16/Q EPS estimates? I took a = *very* quick=20 glance at the last 10Q, are you basing this on the acquisition in = 2000?
 
Katherine
----- Original Message -----
From:=20 Tom = Worley=20
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=
Sent: Saturday, January 19, = 2002 12:25=20 AM
Subject: Re: Re:ELTE (was = [CANSLIM]=20 Katherine-Opinion please?]

I agree, Ian. My second trip on this stock has = nearly=20 made up the loss from the first voyage. Looks more promising now than = the=20 first time I tried it. Sequential growth particularly = impressive.
 
Tom Worley
stkguru@netside.net
AIM:=20 TexWorley
----- Original Message -----
From:=20 Ian =
Sent: Friday, January 18, = 2002 8:01=20 PM
Subject: Re: Re:ELTE (was = [CANSLIM]=20 Katherine-Opinion please?]

Thanks a lot for the chart analysis. The low = volume during=20 the new high to $13.50, and the high volume/no progress days on = 1/10, 1/11,=20 and 1/15 were the things that concerned me. I convinced myself that = the=20 low-volume high was just a case of 'too much, too fast' off the $5 = October=20 low. The recent high volume/no movement days are what concern=20 me.
 
There shouldn't be much concern with P/E. The = company=20 claimed that Q4 2001, and Q1 2002 were already filled with existing = backlog,=20 and I figure that a minimum of $0.16 per Q is easy - so 4 months = from now,=20 the ttm EPS will be at least $0.70 if not more, and the P/E at = current=20 levels would be under 20. Given their industry group and recent = growth rate,=20 a much higher price could easily be supported. But I would like to = see more=20 signs of volume accumulation here.
 
After the next earnings report the IBD EPS = ranking should=20 go over 85, and the RS is over 90 already, so it should start = appearing on=20 IBD radar screens for the first time - including the weekend review. = Perhaps=20 it will be a month or so before the next clear direction becomes=20 visible.
 
Thanks again,
 
Ian
 
 
 
----- Original Message -----
From:=20 Katherine=20 Malm
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com= =20
Sent: Friday, January 18, = 2002 3:36=20 PM
Subject: Re:ELTE (was = [CANSLIM]=20 Katherine-Opinion please?]

Hi Ian,
 
Your question has me wondering whether the sell rules that I = follow=20 translate perfectly to thinly traded stocks. But I'll tell you = what I see=20 and the way I would read it if I were to own it:
 
-After the B/O at 7.13, stock moves up and consolidates for = about 5=20 weeks. This is a "valid" consolidation so that makes the previous = base low=20 8.01 which was printed on 11/23/01.
-Just as a quick check for "overextension" that means that = the stock=20 is 70% above the 200dMA (7.02), 15% above the 50dMA (10.43) and = 49.6%=20 above the base low (8.01). It gets a yellow flag for being 70% = above the=20 200dMA according to WON's sell rule #34, but does not get a red = flag for=20 the Rubberband Sell Rule.
-After the consolidation and breakout 12/18 the stock has = started to=20 show signs of stress. This could easily be market related, but no = way to=20 tell.
-1/2/02: New high on low volume. Red flag.
-1/10/02 & 1/11/02- two days with little or no price = progress on=20 high volume. Red flag.
-With 1 yellow and 2 red flags I thought it worth doing a PE=20 Extension check. I've reconstructed the PE at the time of the B/O = in=20 October using trailing EPS numbers for the prior quarters. That = puts it at=20 $7.13/$.29 =3D 24.59. The extension warning would then be a = forward PE of=20 24.59*2.21=3D 54.3. Let's see. DGO doesn't have any estimates, = which means=20 it isn't followed by enough analysts. I checked the internet to = see if I=20 could find anything and ran across this EPS/Rev snapshot:
 
http://yahoo.marketguide.com/MGI= /mg.asp?target=3D/stocks/companyinformation/highlights&Ticker=3DELTE<= /A>
 
I am alarmed by the essentially flat revenues over the last 4 = years,=20 so I am going to go with the EPS estimates in my VectorVest = software which=20 reads a measly $.02. That puts the current forward looking PE at=20 $11.98/$0.02 =3D 599! I'll have to mark that Red Flag.
 
One note is that its industry is fairly healthy, = consolidating after=20 rising, not overly extended and currently ranked in the 2nd=20 quartile.
 
I'll let you take it from there!
 
Katherine
----- Original Message ----- =
From:=20 Ian =
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com= =20
Sent: Friday, January 18, = 2002 4:40=20 PM
Subject: [CANSLIM] = Katherine -=20 Opinion please?

Would tuesdays distribution day for ELTE = make you exit=20 the stock at this point? Do you have any other insights into the = chart?
 
I would appreciate your analysis - it is the = one big=20 recent winner I am wondering what to do with. Based on all of my = past=20 experiences, and knowing the companies outlook, my gut tells me = that it=20 needs to consolidate here, but will run into the $20's by = mid-year.=20 But I'd rather listen to the chart. I fear I've held it long = enough that=20 I may be complacent.
 
Thank you.
 
Ian
- ------=_NextPart_000_0045_01C1A0C0.A1DF1040-- - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Sat, 19 Jan 2002 09:27:50 -0500 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: Re:ELTE (was [CANSLIM] Katherine-Opinion please?] This is a multi-part message in MIME format. - ------=_NextPart_000_0027_01C1A0CB.9063CF30 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable Hi Katherine, I see 16 cents as easy based on the last 4 sequential quarters (last two = were 16 and 23 cents). Sales appear to be accelerating thru Q3, so even = a moderate slowdown in acceleration should still leave them well over 16 = cents/qtr. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net AIM: TexWorley ----- Original Message -----=20 From: Katherine Malm=20 To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20 Sent: Saturday, January 19, 2002 9:09 AM Subject: Re: Re:ELTE (was [CANSLIM] Katherine-Opinion please?] Tom, Ian Just curious...where do you get $.16/Q EPS estimates? I took a *very* = quick glance at the last 10Q, are you basing this on the acquisition in = 2000? Katherine ----- Original Message -----=20 From: Tom Worley=20 To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20 Sent: Saturday, January 19, 2002 12:25 AM Subject: Re: Re:ELTE (was [CANSLIM] Katherine-Opinion please?] I agree, Ian. My second trip on this stock has nearly made up the = loss from the first voyage. Looks more promising now than the first time = I tried it. Sequential growth particularly impressive. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net AIM: TexWorley ----- Original Message -----=20 From: Ian=20 To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20 Sent: Friday, January 18, 2002 8:01 PM Subject: Re: Re:ELTE (was [CANSLIM] Katherine-Opinion please?] Thanks a lot for the chart analysis. The low volume during the new = high to $13.50, and the high volume/no progress days on 1/10, 1/11, and = 1/15 were the things that concerned me. I convinced myself that the = low-volume high was just a case of 'too much, too fast' off the $5 = October low. The recent high volume/no movement days are what concern = me. There shouldn't be much concern with P/E. The company claimed that = Q4 2001, and Q1 2002 were already filled with existing backlog, and I = figure that a minimum of $0.16 per Q is easy - so 4 months from now, the = ttm EPS will be at least $0.70 if not more, and the P/E at current = levels would be under 20. Given their industry group and recent growth = rate, a much higher price could easily be supported. But I would like to = see more signs of volume accumulation here.=20 After the next earnings report the IBD EPS ranking should go over = 85, and the RS is over 90 already, so it should start appearing on IBD = radar screens for the first time - including the weekend review. Perhaps = it will be a month or so before the next clear direction becomes = visible. Thanks again, Ian ----- Original Message -----=20 From: Katherine Malm=20 To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20 Sent: Friday, January 18, 2002 3:36 PM Subject: Re:ELTE (was [CANSLIM] Katherine-Opinion please?] Hi Ian, Your question has me wondering whether the sell rules that I = follow translate perfectly to thinly traded stocks. But I'll tell you = what I see and the way I would read it if I were to own it: -After the B/O at 7.13, stock moves up and consolidates for = about 5 weeks. This is a "valid" consolidation so that makes the = previous base low 8.01 which was printed on 11/23/01. -Just as a quick check for "overextension" that means that the = stock is 70% above the 200dMA (7.02), 15% above the 50dMA (10.43) and = 49.6% above the base low (8.01). It gets a yellow flag for being 70% = above the 200dMA according to WON's sell rule #34, but does not get a = red flag for the Rubberband Sell Rule. -After the consolidation and breakout 12/18 the stock has = started to show signs of stress. This could easily be market related, = but no way to tell. -1/2/02: New high on low volume. Red flag. -1/10/02 & 1/11/02- two days with little or no price progress on = high volume. Red flag. -With 1 yellow and 2 red flags I thought it worth doing a PE = Extension check. I've reconstructed the PE at the time of the B/O in = October using trailing EPS numbers for the prior quarters. That puts it = at $7.13/$.29 =3D 24.59. The extension warning would then be a forward = PE of 24.59*2.21=3D 54.3. Let's see. DGO doesn't have any estimates, = which means it isn't followed by enough analysts. I checked the internet = to see if I could find anything and ran across this EPS/Rev snapshot: = http://yahoo.marketguide.com/MGI/mg.asp?target=3D/stocks/companyinformati= on/highlights&Ticker=3DELTE I am alarmed by the essentially flat revenues over the last 4 = years, so I am going to go with the EPS estimates in my VectorVest = software which reads a measly $.02. That puts the current forward = looking PE at $11.98/$0.02 =3D 599! I'll have to mark that Red Flag. One note is that its industry is fairly healthy, consolidating = after rising, not overly extended and currently ranked in the 2nd = quartile. I'll let you take it from there! Katherine ----- Original Message -----=20 From: Ian=20 To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20 Sent: Friday, January 18, 2002 4:40 PM Subject: [CANSLIM] Katherine - Opinion please? Would tuesdays distribution day for ELTE make you exit the = stock at this point? Do you have any other insights into the chart? I would appreciate your analysis - it is the one big recent = winner I am wondering what to do with. Based on all of my past = experiences, and knowing the companies outlook, my gut tells me that it = needs to consolidate here, but will run into the $20's by mid-year. But = I'd rather listen to the chart. I fear I've held it long enough that I = may be complacent. Thank you. Ian - ------=_NextPart_000_0027_01C1A0CB.9063CF30 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
Hi Katherine,
 
I see 16 cents as easy based on the last 4 = sequential=20 quarters (last two were 16 and 23 cents). Sales appear to be = accelerating thru=20 Q3, so even a moderate slowdown in acceleration should still leave them = well=20 over 16 cents/qtr.
 
 
Tom Worley
stkguru@netside.net
AIM:=20 TexWorley
----- Original Message -----
From:=20 Katherine=20 Malm
Sent: Saturday, January 19, = 2002 9:09=20 AM
Subject: Re: Re:ELTE (was = [CANSLIM]=20 Katherine-Opinion please?]

Tom, Ian
 
Just curious...where do you get $.16/Q EPS estimates? I took a = *very*=20 quick glance at the last 10Q, are you basing this on the acquisition = in=20 2000?
 
Katherine
----- Original Message -----
From:=20 Tom=20 Worley
Sent: Saturday, January 19, = 2002 12:25=20 AM
Subject: Re: Re:ELTE (was = [CANSLIM]=20 Katherine-Opinion please?]

I agree, Ian. My second trip on this stock = has nearly=20 made up the loss from the first voyage. Looks more promising now = than the=20 first time I tried it. Sequential growth particularly=20 impressive.
 
Tom Worley
stkguru@netside.net
AIM:=20 TexWorley
----- Original Message ----- =
From:=20 Ian =
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com= =20
Sent: Friday, January 18, = 2002 8:01=20 PM
Subject: Re: Re:ELTE (was = [CANSLIM]=20 Katherine-Opinion please?]

Thanks a lot for the chart analysis. The low = volume=20 during the new high to $13.50, and the high volume/no progress = days on=20 1/10, 1/11, and 1/15 were the things that concerned me. I = convinced myself=20 that the low-volume high was just a case of 'too much, too fast' = off the=20 $5 October low. The recent high volume/no movement days are = what=20 concern me.
 
There shouldn't be much concern with P/E. The = company=20 claimed that Q4 2001, and Q1 2002 were already filled with = existing=20 backlog, and I figure that a minimum of $0.16 per Q is easy - so 4 = months=20 from now, the ttm EPS will be at least $0.70 if not more, and the = P/E at=20 current levels would be under 20. Given their industry group and = recent=20 growth rate, a much higher price could easily be supported. But I = would=20 like to see more signs of volume accumulation here.
 
After the next earnings report the IBD EPS = ranking=20 should go over 85, and the RS is over 90 already, so it should = start=20 appearing on IBD radar screens for the first time - including the = weekend=20 review. Perhaps it will be a month or so before the next clear = direction=20 becomes visible.
 
Thanks again,
 
Ian
 
 
 
----- Original Message -----
From:=20 Katherine=20 Malm
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com= =20
Sent: Friday, January 18, = 2002 3:36=20 PM
Subject: Re:ELTE (was = [CANSLIM]=20 Katherine-Opinion please?]

Hi Ian,
 
Your question has me wondering whether the sell rules that = I follow=20 translate perfectly to thinly traded stocks. But I'll tell you = what I=20 see and the way I would read it if I were to own it:
 
-After the B/O at 7.13, stock moves up and consolidates for = about 5=20 weeks. This is a "valid" consolidation so that makes the = previous base=20 low 8.01 which was printed on 11/23/01.
-Just as a quick check for "overextension" that means that = the=20 stock is 70% above the 200dMA (7.02), 15% above the 50dMA = (10.43) and=20 49.6% above the base low (8.01). It gets a yellow flag for being = 70%=20 above the 200dMA according to WON's sell rule #34, but does not = get a=20 red flag for the Rubberband Sell Rule.
-After the consolidation and breakout 12/18 the stock has = started=20 to show signs of stress. This could easily be market related, = but no way=20 to tell.
-1/2/02: New high on low volume. Red flag.
-1/10/02 & 1/11/02- two days with little or no price = progress=20 on high volume. Red flag.
-With 1 yellow and 2 red flags I thought it worth doing a = PE=20 Extension check. I've reconstructed the PE at the time of the = B/O in=20 October using trailing EPS numbers for the prior quarters. That = puts it=20 at $7.13/$.29 =3D 24.59. The extension warning would then be a = forward PE=20 of 24.59*2.21=3D 54.3. Let's see. DGO doesn't have any = estimates, which=20 means it isn't followed by enough analysts. I checked the = internet to=20 see if I could find anything and ran across this EPS/Rev = snapshot:
 
http://yahoo.marketguide.com/MGI= /mg.asp?target=3D/stocks/companyinformation/highlights&Ticker=3DELTE<= /A>
 
I am alarmed by the essentially flat revenues over the last = 4=20 years, so I am going to go with the EPS estimates in my = VectorVest=20 software which reads a measly $.02. That puts the current = forward=20 looking PE at $11.98/$0.02 =3D 599! I'll have to mark that Red = Flag.
 
One note is that its industry is fairly healthy, = consolidating=20 after rising, not overly extended and currently ranked in = the 2nd=20 quartile.
 
I'll let you take it from there!
 
Katherine
----- Original Message ----- =
From:=20 Ian
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com= =20
Sent: Friday, January = 18, 2002=20 4:40 PM
Subject: [CANSLIM] = Katherine -=20 Opinion please?

Would tuesdays distribution day for ELTE = make you=20 exit the stock at this point? Do you have any other insights = into the=20 chart?
 
I would appreciate your analysis - it is = the one big=20 recent winner I am wondering what to do with. Based on all of = my past=20 experiences, and knowing the companies outlook, my gut tells = me that=20 it needs to consolidate here, but will run into the $20's = by=20 mid-year. But I'd rather listen to the chart. I fear I've held = it long=20 enough that I may be complacent.
 
Thank you.
 
Ian
- ------=_NextPart_000_0027_01C1A0CB.9063CF30-- - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Sat, 19 Jan 2002 08:48:39 -0600 From: "Katherine Malm" Subject: Re: Re:ELTE (was [CANSLIM] Katherine-Opinion please?] This is a multi-part message in MIME format. - ------=_NextPart_000_0061_01C1A0C6.1711DD20 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable Hi Tom This is what I don't get, and I'm not trying to be objectionable, = just trying to find out how you'd get $.16/quarter given the company's = history. When I look at this, I see OK growth in revenues, but the = company continuously has good and bad quarters. I noticed in the 10Q = that they capitalize software development and then write it off in = chunks every so often (not uncommon) and it's possible that these = negative quarters every so often are related to that. I'm guessing if I = were to dig further into the financials I would get to know them better. = I know that they did an acquisition in 2000, and I'd assume that the = growth in EPS would be related. I look at Sept/Oct 99 and see really = nice quarters just like the last two we've seen recently, but they are = then followed by negative or so-so quarters. That raises red flags and = would lead me to question whether the growth pattern shown recently can = be projected into the future. Katherine GROWTH RATES=20 1 Year 3 Years 5 Years=20 Sales % -11.70 15.54 -14.53=20 EPS % NM NM NM=20 Dividend % NM NM NM=20 REVENUE=20 Quarters 1998 1999 2000 2001=20 MAR 8,343 12,988 13,334 14,295=20 JUN 10,850 15,401 13,741 17,392=20 SEP 12,385 15,381 12,858 18,516=20 DEC 13,484 15,496 12,399 =20 =20 Totals 45,062 59,266 52,332 50,203=20 Note: Units in Thousands of U.S. Dollars=20 =20 =20 EARNINGS PER SHARE=20 Quarters 1998 1999 2000 2001=20 MAR -0.070 0.010 0.050 -0.040=20 JUN -0.060 0.080 0.010 0.160=20 SEP 0.020 0.140 -0.020 0.230=20 DEC -0.030 0.210 -0.060 =20 =20 Totals -0.140 0.440 -0.020 0.350=20 Note: Units in U.S. Dollars=20 =20 ----- Original Message -----=20 From: Tom Worley=20 To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20 Sent: Saturday, January 19, 2002 8:27 AM Subject: Re: Re:ELTE (was [CANSLIM] Katherine-Opinion please?] Hi Katherine, I see 16 cents as easy based on the last 4 sequential quarters (last = two were 16 and 23 cents). Sales appear to be accelerating thru Q3, so = even a moderate slowdown in acceleration should still leave them well = over 16 cents/qtr. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net AIM: TexWorley ----- Original Message -----=20 From: Katherine Malm=20 To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20 Sent: Saturday, January 19, 2002 9:09 AM Subject: Re: Re:ELTE (was [CANSLIM] Katherine-Opinion please?] Tom, Ian Just curious...where do you get $.16/Q EPS estimates? I took a = *very* quick glance at the last 10Q, are you basing this on the = acquisition in 2000? Katherine ----- Original Message -----=20 From: Tom Worley=20 To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20 Sent: Saturday, January 19, 2002 12:25 AM Subject: Re: Re:ELTE (was [CANSLIM] Katherine-Opinion please?] I agree, Ian. My second trip on this stock has nearly made up the = loss from the first voyage. Looks more promising now than the first time = I tried it. Sequential growth particularly impressive. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net AIM: TexWorley ----- Original Message -----=20 From: Ian=20 To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20 Sent: Friday, January 18, 2002 8:01 PM Subject: Re: Re:ELTE (was [CANSLIM] Katherine-Opinion please?] Thanks a lot for the chart analysis. The low volume during the = new high to $13.50, and the high volume/no progress days on 1/10, 1/11, = and 1/15 were the things that concerned me. I convinced myself that the = low-volume high was just a case of 'too much, too fast' off the $5 = October low. The recent high volume/no movement days are what concern = me. There shouldn't be much concern with P/E. The company claimed = that Q4 2001, and Q1 2002 were already filled with existing backlog, and = I figure that a minimum of $0.16 per Q is easy - so 4 months from now, = the ttm EPS will be at least $0.70 if not more, and the P/E at current = levels would be under 20. Given their industry group and recent growth = rate, a much higher price could easily be supported. But I would like to = see more signs of volume accumulation here.=20 After the next earnings report the IBD EPS ranking should go = over 85, and the RS is over 90 already, so it should start appearing on = IBD radar screens for the first time - including the weekend review. = Perhaps it will be a month or so before the next clear direction becomes = visible. Thanks again, Ian ----- Original Message -----=20 From: Katherine Malm=20 To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20 Sent: Friday, January 18, 2002 3:36 PM Subject: Re:ELTE (was [CANSLIM] Katherine-Opinion please?] Hi Ian, Your question has me wondering whether the sell rules that I = follow translate perfectly to thinly traded stocks. But I'll tell you = what I see and the way I would read it if I were to own it: -After the B/O at 7.13, stock moves up and consolidates for = about 5 weeks. This is a "valid" consolidation so that makes the = previous base low 8.01 which was printed on 11/23/01. -Just as a quick check for "overextension" that means that the = stock is 70% above the 200dMA (7.02), 15% above the 50dMA (10.43) and = 49.6% above the base low (8.01). It gets a yellow flag for being 70% = above the 200dMA according to WON's sell rule #34, but does not get a = red flag for the Rubberband Sell Rule. -After the consolidation and breakout 12/18 the stock has = started to show signs of stress. This could easily be market related, = but no way to tell. -1/2/02: New high on low volume. Red flag. -1/10/02 & 1/11/02- two days with little or no price progress = on high volume. Red flag. -With 1 yellow and 2 red flags I thought it worth doing a PE = Extension check. I've reconstructed the PE at the time of the B/O in = October using trailing EPS numbers for the prior quarters. That puts it = at $7.13/$.29 =3D 24.59. The extension warning would then be a forward = PE of 24.59*2.21=3D 54.3. Let's see. DGO doesn't have any estimates, = which means it isn't followed by enough analysts. I checked the internet = to see if I could find anything and ran across this EPS/Rev snapshot: = http://yahoo.marketguide.com/MGI/mg.asp?target=3D/stocks/companyinformati= on/highlights&Ticker=3DELTE I am alarmed by the essentially flat revenues over the last 4 = years, so I am going to go with the EPS estimates in my VectorVest = software which reads a measly $.02. That puts the current forward = looking PE at $11.98/$0.02 =3D 599! I'll have to mark that Red Flag. One note is that its industry is fairly healthy, consolidating = after rising, not overly extended and currently ranked in the 2nd = quartile. I'll let you take it from there! Katherine ----- Original Message -----=20 From: Ian=20 To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20 Sent: Friday, January 18, 2002 4:40 PM Subject: [CANSLIM] Katherine - Opinion please? Would tuesdays distribution day for ELTE make you exit the = stock at this point? Do you have any other insights into the chart? I would appreciate your analysis - it is the one big recent = winner I am wondering what to do with. Based on all of my past = experiences, and knowing the companies outlook, my gut tells me that it = needs to consolidate here, but will run into the $20's by mid-year. But = I'd rather listen to the chart. I fear I've held it long enough that I = may be complacent. Thank you. Ian - ------=_NextPart_000_0061_01C1A0C6.1711DD20 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
Hi Tom
 
This is what I don't get, and I'm not trying to = be=20 objectionable, just trying to find out how you'd get $.16/quarter = given=20 the company's history. When I look at this, I see OK growth in = revenues,=20 but the company continuously has good and bad quarters. I noticed = in the=20 10Q that they capitalize software development and then write it = off in=20 chunks every so often (not uncommon) and it's possible that = these=20 negative quarters every so often are related to that. I'm guessing = if I=20 were to dig further into the financials I would get to know them = better. I=20 know that they did an acquisition in 2000, and I'd assume that the = growth=20 in EPS would be related. I look at Sept/Oct 99 and see really nice = quarters just like the last two we've seen recently, but they are = then=20 followed by negative or so-so quarters. That raises red flags and = would=20 lead me to question whether the growth pattern shown recently can = be=20 projected into the future.
 
Katherine
 
GROWTH RATES
1 Year 3 Years 5 Years
Sales % -11.70 15.54 -14.53
EPS % NM NM NM
Dividend % NM NM NM

REVENUE
Quarters 1998 1999 2000 2001
MAR 8,343 12,988 13,334 14,295
JUN 10,850 15,401 13,741 17,392
SEP 12,385 15,381 12,858 18,516
DEC 13,484 15,496 12,399
Totals 45,062 59,266 52,332 50,203
Note:  Units in Thousands of U.S. = Dollars
 
EARNINGS PER = SHARE
Quarters 1998 1999 2000 2001
MAR -0.070 0.010 0.050 -0.040
JUN -0.060 0.080 0.010 0.160
SEP 0.020 0.140 -0.020 0.230
DEC -0.030 0.210 -0.060
Totals -0.140 0.440 -0.020 0.350
Note:  Units in U.S.=20 = Dollars
----- Original Message -----
From:=20 Tom = Worley=20
Sent: Saturday, January 19, = 2002 8:27=20 AM
Subject: Re: Re:ELTE (was = [CANSLIM]=20 Katherine-Opinion please?]

Hi Katherine,
 
I see 16 cents as easy based on the last 4 = sequential=20 quarters (last two were 16 and 23 cents). Sales appear to be = accelerating thru=20 Q3, so even a moderate slowdown in acceleration should still leave = them well=20 over 16 cents/qtr.
 
 
Tom Worley
stkguru@netside.net
AIM:=20 TexWorley
----- Original Message -----
From:=20 Katherine=20 Malm
Sent: Saturday, January 19, = 2002 9:09=20 AM
Subject: Re: Re:ELTE (was = [CANSLIM]=20 Katherine-Opinion please?]

Tom, Ian
 
Just curious...where do you get $.16/Q EPS estimates? I took a = *very*=20 quick glance at the last 10Q, are you basing this on the acquisition = in=20 2000?
 
Katherine
----- Original Message ----- =
From:=20 Tom=20 Worley
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com= =20
Sent: Saturday, January 19, = 2002=20 12:25 AM
Subject: Re: Re:ELTE (was = [CANSLIM]=20 Katherine-Opinion please?]

I agree, Ian. My second trip on this stock = has=20 nearly made up the loss from the first voyage. Looks more = promising now=20 than the first time I tried it. Sequential growth particularly=20 impressive.
 
Tom Worley
stkguru@netside.net
AIM:=20 TexWorley
----- Original Message ----- =
From:=20 Ian =
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com= =20
Sent: Friday, January 18, = 2002 8:01=20 PM
Subject: Re: Re:ELTE (was = [CANSLIM]=20 Katherine-Opinion please?]

Thanks a lot for the chart analysis. The low = volume=20 during the new high to $13.50, and the high volume/no progress = days on=20 1/10, 1/11, and 1/15 were the things that concerned me. I = convinced=20 myself that the low-volume high was just a case of 'too much, = too fast'=20 off the $5 October low. The recent high volume/no movement = days are=20 what concern me.
 
There shouldn't be much concern with P/E. = The company=20 claimed that Q4 2001, and Q1 2002 were already filled with = existing=20 backlog, and I figure that a minimum of $0.16 per Q is easy - so = 4=20 months from now, the ttm EPS will be at least $0.70 if not more, = and the=20 P/E at current levels would be under 20. Given their industry = group and=20 recent growth rate, a much higher price could easily be = supported. But I=20 would like to see more signs of volume accumulation here. =
 
After the next earnings report the IBD EPS = ranking=20 should go over 85, and the RS is over 90 already, so it should = start=20 appearing on IBD radar screens for the first time - including = the=20 weekend review. Perhaps it will be a month or so before the next = clear=20 direction becomes visible.
 
Thanks again,
 
Ian
 
 
 
----- Original Message -----
From:=20 Katherine Malm
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com= =20
Sent: Friday, January = 18, 2002=20 3:36 PM
Subject: Re:ELTE (was = [CANSLIM]=20 Katherine-Opinion please?]

Hi Ian,
 
Your question has me wondering whether the sell rules = that I=20 follow translate perfectly to thinly traded stocks. But I'll = tell you=20 what I see and the way I would read it if I were to own = it:
 
-After the B/O at 7.13, stock moves up and consolidates = for about=20 5 weeks. This is a "valid" consolidation so that makes the = previous=20 base low 8.01 which was printed on 11/23/01.
-Just as a quick check for "overextension" that means = that the=20 stock is 70% above the 200dMA (7.02), 15% above the 50dMA = (10.43) and=20 49.6% above the base low (8.01). It gets a yellow flag for = being 70%=20 above the 200dMA according to WON's sell rule #34, but does = not get a=20 red flag for the Rubberband Sell Rule.
-After the consolidation and breakout 12/18 the stock has = started=20 to show signs of stress. This could easily be market related, = but no=20 way to tell.
-1/2/02: New high on low volume. Red flag.
-1/10/02 & 1/11/02- two days with little or no price = progress=20 on high volume. Red flag.
-With 1 yellow and 2 red flags I thought it worth doing a = PE=20 Extension check. I've reconstructed the PE at the time of the = B/O in=20 October using trailing EPS numbers for the prior quarters. = That puts=20 it at $7.13/$.29 =3D 24.59. The extension warning would then = be a=20 forward PE of 24.59*2.21=3D 54.3. Let's see. DGO doesn't have = any=20 estimates, which means it isn't followed by enough analysts. I = checked=20 the internet to see if I could find anything and ran across = this=20 EPS/Rev snapshot:
 
http://yahoo.marketguide.com/MGI= /mg.asp?target=3D/stocks/companyinformation/highlights&Ticker=3DELTE<= /A>
 
I am alarmed by the essentially flat revenues over the = last 4=20 years, so I am going to go with the EPS estimates in my = VectorVest=20 software which reads a measly $.02. That puts the current = forward=20 looking PE at $11.98/$0.02 =3D 599! I'll have to mark that Red = Flag.
 
One note is that its industry is fairly healthy, = consolidating=20 after rising, not overly extended and currently ranked in = the 2nd=20 quartile.
 
I'll let you take it from there!
 
Katherine
----- Original Message ----- =
From:=20 Ian
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com= =20
Sent: Friday, January = 18, 2002=20 4:40 PM
Subject: [CANSLIM] = Katherine -=20 Opinion please?

Would tuesdays distribution day for ELTE = make you=20 exit the stock at this point? Do you have any other insights = into=20 the chart?
 
I would appreciate your analysis - it is = the one=20 big recent winner I am wondering what to do with. Based on = all of my=20 past experiences, and knowing the companies outlook, my gut = tells me=20 that it needs to consolidate here, but will run into = the $20's=20 by mid-year. But I'd rather listen to the chart. I fear I've = held it=20 long enough that I may be complacent.
 
Thank you.
 
Ian
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