From: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com (canslim-digest) To: canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Subject: canslim-digest V2 #2075 Reply-To: canslim Sender: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Errors-To: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Precedence: bulk Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable X-No-Archive: yes canslim-digest Thursday, January 24 2002 Volume 02 : Number 2075 In this issue: [CANSLIM] KRSL Re: [CANSLIM] KRSL Re: [CANSLIM] KRSL [CANSLIM] JJSF Re: [CANSLIM] ELTE [CANSLIM] Acc/Dis Numbers -- Market in Correction Re: [CANSLIM] JJSF [CANSLIM] Mr. Greenspan Re: [CANSLIM] Panic attack ... Re: [CANSLIM] BZH RE: [CANSLIM] BZH Re: [CANSLIM] Panic attack ... ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Date: Wed, 23 Jan 2002 20:43:40 EST From: Spencer48@aol.com Subject: [CANSLIM] KRSL Canslimmers: Has anyone heard anything about KRSL? It doesn't seem to have traded today (DGO doesn't display any price or volume) jans - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 23 Jan 2002 20:52:43 -0500 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] KRSL doesn't appear like it traded today. Not unusual, ADV is only 3,000. Both my real time quotes and my VR fund show no trade. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net AIM: TexWorley - ----- Original Message ----- From: To: Sent: Wednesday, January 23, 2002 8:43 PM Subject: [CANSLIM] KRSL > Canslimmers: > > Has anyone heard anything about KRSL? It doesn't seem to have traded > today (DGO doesn't display any price or volume) > > jans > > - > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. > > - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 23 Jan 2002 20:54:16 EST From: Vanchee1@aol.com Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] KRSL - --part1_109.c44cf2f.2980c348_boundary Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII" Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit Jans, I currently own KRSL 82/95, great little co. making good money. Currently has a record backlog, might just report some very good earnings. Only problem is its thinly traded with 1.95 mil. shares out and only 1 mil on the float. LTM earnings are 1.54 which gives it a PE of less than 5. Chris. - --part1_109.c44cf2f.2980c348_boundary Content-Type: text/html; charset="US-ASCII" Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit Jans, I currently own KRSL 82/95, great little co. making good money. Currently has a record backlog, might just report some very good earnings. Only problem is its thinly traded with 1.95 mil. shares out and only 1 mil on the float. LTM earnings are 1.54 which gives it a PE of less than 5.

Chris. - --part1_109.c44cf2f.2980c348_boundary-- - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 23 Jan 2002 21:41:01 EST From: Vanchee1@aol.com Subject: [CANSLIM] JJSF - --part1_61.19be3a59.2980ce3d_boundary Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII" Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit Nice move on JJSF with decent volume. Move was on earnings. Chris. - --part1_61.19be3a59.2980ce3d_boundary Content-Type: text/html; charset="US-ASCII" Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit Nice move on JJSF with decent volume. Move was on earnings.

Chris. - --part1_61.19be3a59.2980ce3d_boundary-- - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 23 Jan 2002 19:12:06 -0800 From: Ian Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] ELTE This is a multi-part message in MIME format. - --Boundary_(ID_hTObqUp2ymdmteeK8fAuIg) Content-type: text/plain; charset=iso-8859-1 Content-transfer-encoding: 7BIT I can't see how you can lose. 40 new customers in just 45 days for a brand new CRM product? I don't think it is included at all in management estimates. My gut tells me that this company is really in its sweet spot. I wish they had released Q4 financials by now - I'm not sure what to do if it runs before they are announced? Ian ----- Original Message ----- From: Tom Worley To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Sent: Wednesday, January 23, 2002 5:41 PM Subject: [CANSLIM] ELTE Nice move today on volume, but didn't pass the pivot. I picked up more for my VR fund based solely on TA (Technical Analysis) using MACD, OBV, and MF (Moving Average Convergence Divergence, On Balance Volume, Money Flow). Trying to regain my former discipline while I have some time off and improve my timing. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net AIM: TexWorley - --Boundary_(ID_hTObqUp2ymdmteeK8fAuIg) Content-type: text/html; charset=iso-8859-1 Content-transfer-encoding: 7BIT
I can't see how you can lose. 40 new customers in just 45 days for a brand new CRM product? I don't think it is included at all in management estimates. My gut tells me that this company is really in its sweet spot. I wish they had released Q4 financials by now - I'm not sure what to do if it runs before they are announced?
 
Ian
 
 
----- Original Message -----
From: Tom Worley
Sent: Wednesday, January 23, 2002 5:41 PM
Subject: [CANSLIM] ELTE

Nice move today on volume, but didn't pass the pivot. I picked up more for my VR fund based solely on TA (Technical Analysis) using MACD, OBV, and MF (Moving Average Convergence Divergence, On Balance Volume, Money Flow). Trying to regain my former discipline while I have some time off and improve my timing.
 
Tom Worley
stkguru@netside.net
AIM: TexWorley
- --Boundary_(ID_hTObqUp2ymdmteeK8fAuIg)-- - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 23 Jan 2002 22:58:03 -0500 From: Robert Subject: [CANSLIM] Acc/Dis Numbers -- Market in Correction - ------ =_NextPart_000_01C1A461.6B65C820 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="us-ascii" Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit Here are the latest Acc/Dis Numbers: Spread sheet version: Date,A,B,C,D,E,% of AB/A:E,%E,Market Posture 1/10/02,1081,2553,1091,646,185,65%,3%,Market stable 1/11/02,1070,2521,1097,664,189,65%,3%,Market stable 1/14/02,1063,2508,1123,665,188,64%,3%,Market stable 1/15/02,1016,2499,1136,691,202,63%,4%,Market stable 1/16/02,928,2439,1172,764,217,61%,4%,Market in correction 1/17/02,926,2481,1138,766,217,62%,4%,Market in correction 1/18/02,847,2391,1193,840,241,59%,4%,Market in correction 1/22/02,869,2407,1193,825,235,59%,4%,Market in correction 1/23/02,815,2380,1213,856,256,58%,5%,Market in correction Robert - ------ =_NextPart_000_01C1A461.6B65C820-- - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 24 Jan 2002 05:02:17 -0500 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] JJSF This is a multi-part message in MIME format. - ------=_NextPart_000_0047_01C1A494.4B9C15C0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable Chris, did you ever find an explanation of why their sales and earnings = are back end loaded in the Q3 and Q4? I see the latest earnings, for Q1, continue the pattern of very weak Q1 = and Q2. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net AIM: TexWorley ----- Original Message -----=20 From: Vanchee1@aol.com=20 To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20 Sent: Wednesday, January 23, 2002 9:41 PM Subject: [CANSLIM] JJSF Nice move on JJSF with decent volume. Move was on earnings.=20 Chris.=20 - ------=_NextPart_000_0047_01C1A494.4B9C15C0 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
Chris, did you ever find an explanation of why = their sales=20 and earnings are back end loaded in the Q3 and Q4?
 
I see the latest earnings, for Q1, continue the = pattern of=20 very weak Q1 and Q2.
 
Tom Worley
stkguru@netside.net
AIM:=20 TexWorley
----- Original Message -----
From:=20 Vanchee1@aol.com=20
Sent: Wednesday, January 23, = 2002 9:41=20 PM
Subject: [CANSLIM] JJSF

Nice move = on JJSF with=20 decent volume. Move was on earnings.

Chris.=20 - ------=_NextPart_000_0047_01C1A494.4B9C15C0-- - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 24 Jan 2002 06:13:58 -0500 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: [CANSLIM] Mr. Greenspan This is a multi-part message in MIME format. - ------=_NextPart_000_0056_01C1A49E.4F8EEF40 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable In case anyone missed it, Mr. G speaks to Congress today at 10 AM on the = US economy, and is expected to be upbeat, clarifying his comments from = his Jan 11 speech in San Francisco. Best indications I can see are that there will not be a further cut in = the Fed rate on 1/30/02. Hopefully today will clarify that, and prepare = the market for that. A bullish perspective on a recovering economy is = likely, IMO, to more than offset any disappointment at not getting = another 25 BP cut. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net AIM: TexWorley - ------=_NextPart_000_0056_01C1A49E.4F8EEF40 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
In case anyone missed it, Mr. G speaks to = Congress today=20 at 10 AM on the US economy, and is expected to be upbeat, clarifying his = comments from his Jan 11 speech in San Francisco.
 
Best indications I can see are that there will = not be a=20 further cut in the Fed rate on 1/30/02. Hopefully today will clarify = that, and=20 prepare the market for that. A bullish perspective on a recovering = economy is=20 likely, IMO, to more than offset any disappointment at not getting = another 25 BP=20 cut.
 
Tom Worley
stkguru@netside.net
AIM:=20 TexWorley
- ------=_NextPart_000_0056_01C1A49E.4F8EEF40-- - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 23 Jan 2002 13:37:18 -0500 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Panic attack ... This is a multi-part message in MIME format. - ------=_NextPart_000_0024_01C1A413.13E3E1C0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable Walter, I would have to disagree with part of your conclusion. While the housing = industry did not prevent the start of a recession, it is likely that it = significantly helped to make it a shallow recession, and will help end = it early. There still seems to be a lot of juice left in the home = builders group, and I was adding more to my three positions in my fund = today. Adding to Consumer Sentiment, in addition to lower mortgage = payments, is lower energy costs. That, plus the tax cuts that started = 1/1/02, means a little more money in everyone's paycheck or wallet. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net AIM: TexWorley ----- Original Message -----=20 From: walter nusbaum=20 To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20 Sent: Wednesday, January 23, 2002 11:58 AM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Panic attack ... Ian, "Stock Market Cycles" was rated "F" in up markets and A+ in down = markets with an annualized gain of 4.6% since 5/31/90(sic), according to = Forbes(22 JAN 01); not exactly the kind of numbers that inspire = confidence. At any rate, there is nothing in the theory or construction = of TRIN that allows for speculation as to the degree of market change. = It is a great market reversal indicator and that's all. According to = Elder, the market can stay over bought/sold for some time and the time = to take action is immediately after TRIN makes a reversal off its = high/low reading and re-penetrates the overbought or oversold line.(The = Equis link says to buy/sell upon reaching the line, which is a specific = number. Elder's recommendation puts you in sync with the new trend. I = don't know what TRIN was doing during the debacle of 2000, but I = suspect(using the Equis standard) it gave buy signals loooong before = their time). The lines themselves should be revisited, and redrawn if necessary, = every three months based upon the interaction of TRIN and the Index that = is being used. The lines indicate areas of concern and specific numbers = above or below the lines have little meaning. TRIN can not be used = mechanically- the same readings mean different things under different = market conditions(Bull/Bear). TRIN gives its best buy/sell signals when = divergence from the Index being used is observed and when used in = combination with the New High-New Low Index.=20 Having said all that, 1.5 is a doozy of a number and will probably be = followed by a downturn. I know nothing, but have little confidence in a = return of the Bull for many moons. The automobile industry with its = attendant suppliers such as steel, glass, rubber, plastics, etc., has = been trashed; housing has typically propelled the new Bull, but housing = has already had its own run with little effect on the overall market. = Consumer Confidence would seem to be a bright spot, but it probably is = the result of lower mortgage payments due to massive refinancing and = bargains picked up by consumers at the expense of the producers, the = very folks that we look to for increased earnings. There's more, but = this grows lengthy so I'll shut up. Thanks for your note. Best wishes, Walt =20 ----- Original Message -----=20 From: Ian=20 To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20 Sent: Tuesday, January 22, 2002 12:32 PM Subject: [CANSLIM] Panic attack ... Here's a very interesting recent quote from Peter Eliades of Stock = Market Cycles: "At the end of todays trading, we noticed that the lowest = single day TRIN reading over the past 10 trading days was 1.143. That = seemed unusual to us, so we asked the computer to look back over the = past 61 years (since 1940) to find out how many other 10 day periods had = transpired without one single day reading below 1.14. We were stunned at = the answer! The answer is none." The 10 day ARMS index (TRIN) got up to 1.5 again last week. It used = to have huge historical significance in indicating that a major bottom = was to be put in within 20 trading days. It has now happened 4 times in = the past year alone. I don't pretend to know what it means, but there certainly has been = a considerable amount of panic over the last 2 weeks. Ian PS - Here is a quick overview of the ARMS index that someone asked = for: http://www.equis.com/free/taaz/armsindex.html - ------=_NextPart_000_0024_01C1A413.13E3E1C0 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
Walter,
 
I would have to disagree with part of your = conclusion.=20 While the housing industry did not prevent the start of a recession, it = is=20 likely that it significantly helped to make it a shallow recession, and = will=20 help end it early. There still seems to be a lot of juice left in the = home=20 builders group, and I was adding more to my three positions in my fund = today.=20 Adding to Consumer Sentiment, in addition to lower mortgage payments, is = lower=20 energy costs. That, plus the tax cuts that started 1/1/02, means a = little more=20 money in everyone's paycheck or wallet.
 
Tom Worley
stkguru@netside.net
AIM:=20 TexWorley
----- Original Message -----
From:=20 walter=20 nusbaum
Sent: Wednesday, January 23, = 2002 11:58=20 AM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Panic = attack=20 ...

Ian,
"Stock Market Cycles" was rated "F" in up markets = and A+ in=20 down markets with an annualized gain of 4.6% since=20 5/31/90(sic), according to Forbes(22 JAN 01); not exactly = the kind=20 of numbers that inspire confidence. At any rate, there is = nothing in=20 the theory or construction of TRIN that allows for speculation as to = the=20 degree of market change. It is a great market reversal = indicator and=20 that's all. According to Elder, the market can stay over bought/sold = for some=20 time and the time to take action is immediately after TRIN makes a = reversal=20 off its high/low reading and re-penetrates the overbought = or oversold=20 line.(The Equis link says to buy/sell upon reaching the line, which is = a=20 specific number. Elder's recommendation puts you in sync with the new = trend. I=20 don't know what TRIN was doing during the debacle of 2000, but I = suspect(using=20 the Equis standard) it gave buy signals loooong before their=20 time).
 
The lines themselves should be revisited, and = redrawn=20 if necessary, every three months based upon the interaction of TRIN = and the=20 Index that is being used. The lines indicate areas of concern=20 and specific numbers above or below the lines have little=20 meaning. TRIN can not be used mechanically- the same readings = mean=20 different things under different market=20 conditions(Bull/Bear). TRIN gives its best = buy/sell=20 signals when divergence from the Index being used is observed and when = used=20 in combination with the New High-New Low Index. =
 
Having said all that, 1.5 is a doozy of a number=20 and will probably be followed by a downturn. I know nothing, = but=20 have little confidence in a return of the Bull for many moons. The = automobile=20 industry with its attendant suppliers such as steel, glass, rubber, = plastics,=20 etc., has been trashed; housing has typically propelled the new Bull, = but=20 housing has already had its own run with little effect on the = overall=20 market. Consumer Confidence would seem to be a bright spot, but it = probably is=20 the result of lower mortgage payments due to massive refinancing and = bargains=20 picked up by consumers at the expense of the producers, the very folks = that we=20 look to for increased earnings. There's more, but this grows = lengthy so=20 I'll shut up. Thanks for your note.
Best wishes,
Walt
    
----- Original Message -----
From:=20 Ian =
Sent: Tuesday, January 22, = 2002 12:32=20 PM
Subject: [CANSLIM] Panic = attack=20 ...

Here's a very interesting recent quote from = Peter Eliades=20 of Stock Market Cycles: "At the end of todays trading, we noticed = that the=20 lowest single day TRIN reading over the past 10 trading days was = 1.143. That=20 seemed unusual to us, so we asked the computer to look back over the = past 61=20 years (since 1940) to find out how many other 10 day periods had = transpired=20 without one single day reading below 1.14. We were stunned at the = answer!=20 The answer is none."
 
The 10 day ARMS index (TRIN) got up to 1.5 again = last=20 week. It used to have huge historical significance in indicating = that a=20 major bottom was to be put in within 20 trading days. It has now = happened 4=20 times in the past year alone.
 
I don't pretend to know what it means, but there = certainly=20 has been a considerable amount of panic over the last 2 = weeks.
 
Ian
 
 
PS - Here is a quick overview of the ARMS index = that=20 someone asked for: http://www.equis.c= om/free/taaz/armsindex.html
 - ------=_NextPart_000_0024_01C1A413.13E3E1C0-- - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 24 Jan 2002 08:35:32 -0800 (PST) From: rolatzi Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] BZH BZH, in home building industry is breaking out from a cup and handle today. EPS=80 QRS=93, 1yr EPS Growth = 63, 5 yr EPS growth = 33. I do not own this stock but housing has been the stalwart for the market in the last few months - --- Tom Worley wrote: > Walter, > > I would have to disagree with part of your conclusion. > While the housing industry did not prevent the start of a > recession, it is likely that it significantly helped to > make it a shallow recession, and will help end it early. > There still seems to be a lot of juice left in the home > builders group, and I was adding more to my three > positions in my fund today. Adding to Consumer Sentiment, > in addition to lower mortgage payments, is lower energy > costs. That, plus the tax cuts that started 1/1/02, means > a little more money in everyone's paycheck or wallet. > > Tom Worley > stkguru@netside.net > AIM: TexWorley > ----- Original Message ----- > From: walter nusbaum > To: canslim@lists.xmission.com > Sent: Wednesday, January 23, 2002 11:58 AM > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Panic attack ... > > > Ian, > "Stock Market Cycles" was rated "F" in up markets and > A+ in down markets with an annualized gain of 4.6% since > 5/31/90(sic), according to Forbes(22 JAN 01); not exactly > the kind of numbers that inspire confidence. At any rate, > there is nothing in the theory or construction of TRIN > that allows for speculation as to the degree of market > change. It is a great market reversal indicator and > that's all. According to Elder, the market can stay over > bought/sold for some time and the time to take action is > immediately after TRIN makes a reversal off its high/low > reading and re-penetrates the overbought or oversold > line.(The Equis link says to buy/sell upon reaching the > line, which is a specific number. Elder's recommendation > puts you in sync with the new trend. I don't know what > TRIN was doing during the debacle of 2000, but I > suspect(using the Equis standard) it gave buy signals > loooong before their time). > > The lines themselves should be revisited, and redrawn > if necessary, every three months based upon the > interaction of TRIN and the Index that is being used. The > lines indicate areas of concern and specific numbers > above or below the lines have little meaning. TRIN can > not be used mechanically- the same readings mean > different things under different market > conditions(Bull/Bear). TRIN gives its best buy/sell > signals when divergence from the Index being used is > observed and when used in combination with the New > High-New Low Index. > > Having said all that, 1.5 is a doozy of a number and > will probably be followed by a downturn. I know nothing, > but have little confidence in a return of the Bull for > many moons. The automobile industry with its attendant > suppliers such as steel, glass, rubber, plastics, etc., > has been trashed; housing has typically propelled the new > Bull, but housing has already had its own run with little > effect on the overall market. Consumer Confidence would > seem to be a bright spot, but it probably is the result > of lower mortgage payments due to massive refinancing and > bargains picked up by consumers at the expense of the > producers, the very folks that we look to for increased > earnings. There's more, but this grows lengthy so I'll > shut up. Thanks for your note. > Best wishes, > Walt > > ----- Original Message ----- > From: Ian > To: canslim@lists.xmission.com > Sent: Tuesday, January 22, 2002 12:32 PM > Subject: [CANSLIM] Panic attack ... > > > Here's a very interesting recent quote from Peter > Eliades of Stock Market Cycles: "At the end of todays > trading, we noticed that the lowest single day TRIN > reading over the past 10 trading days was 1.143. That > seemed unusual to us, so we asked the computer to look > back over the past 61 years (since 1940) to find out how > many other 10 day periods had transpired without one > single day reading below 1.14. We were stunned at the > answer! The answer is none." > > The 10 day ARMS index (TRIN) got up to 1.5 again last > week. It used to have huge historical significance in > indicating that a major bottom was to be put in within 20 > trading days. It has now happened 4 times in the past > year alone. > > I don't pretend to know what it means, but there > certainly has been a considerable amount of panic over > the last 2 weeks. > > Ian > > > PS - Here is a quick overview of the ARMS index that > someone asked for: > http://www.equis.com/free/taaz/armsindex.html > __________________________________________________ Do You Yahoo!? Great stuff seeking new owners in Yahoo! Auctions! http://auctions.yahoo.com - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 24 Jan 2002 11:45:13 -0500 From: "Dave" Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] BZH LEN is also breaking out, after a failed breakout last week. Same with DFXI (not a homebuilder but nevertheless breaking out after a failed breakout). When stocks fake a breakout, only to have a true breakout days later, what does it say about the market? Were the recent "sell everything" signals false, or is the action over the past few days just a temporary bounce? I suspended all buys after all the recent distribution, but now I'm seeing new breakouts on stocks that I have been watching. Frustrating, to say the least... > -----Original Message----- > From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com > [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of rolatzi > Sent: Thursday, January 24, 2002 11:36 AM > To: canslim@lists.xmission.com > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] BZH > > > > > BZH, in home building industry is breaking out from a cup > and handle today. EPS=80 QRS=93, 1yr EPS Growth = 63, 5 yr > EPS growth = 33. I do not own this stock but housing has > been the stalwart for the market in the last few months > --- Tom Worley wrote: > > Walter, > > > > I would have to disagree with part of your conclusion. > > While the housing industry did not prevent the start of a > > recession, it is likely that it significantly helped to > > make it a shallow recession, and will help end it early. > > There still seems to be a lot of juice left in the home > > builders group, and I was adding more to my three > > positions in my fund today. Adding to Consumer Sentiment, > > in addition to lower mortgage payments, is lower energy > > costs. That, plus the tax cuts that started 1/1/02, means > > a little more money in everyone's paycheck or wallet. > > > > Tom Worley > > stkguru@netside.net > > AIM: TexWorley > > ----- Original Message ----- > > From: walter nusbaum > > To: canslim@lists.xmission.com > > Sent: Wednesday, January 23, 2002 11:58 AM > > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Panic attack ... > > > > > > Ian, > > "Stock Market Cycles" was rated "F" in up markets and > > A+ in down markets with an annualized gain of 4.6% since > > 5/31/90(sic), according to Forbes(22 JAN 01); not exactly > > the kind of numbers that inspire confidence. At any rate, > > there is nothing in the theory or construction of TRIN > > that allows for speculation as to the degree of market > > change. It is a great market reversal indicator and > > that's all. According to Elder, the market can stay over > > bought/sold for some time and the time to take action is > > immediately after TRIN makes a reversal off its high/low > > reading and re-penetrates the overbought or oversold > > line.(The Equis link says to buy/sell upon reaching the > > line, which is a specific number. Elder's recommendation > > puts you in sync with the new trend. I don't know what > > TRIN was doing during the debacle of 2000, but I > > suspect(using the Equis standard) it gave buy signals > > loooong before their time). > > > > The lines themselves should be revisited, and redrawn > > if necessary, every three months based upon the > > interaction of TRIN and the Index that is being used. The > > lines indicate areas of concern and specific numbers > > above or below the lines have little meaning. TRIN can > > not be used mechanically- the same readings mean > > different things under different market > > conditions(Bull/Bear). TRIN gives its best buy/sell > > signals when divergence from the Index being used is > > observed and when used in combination with the New > > High-New Low Index. > > > > Having said all that, 1.5 is a doozy of a number and > > will probably be followed by a downturn. I know nothing, > > but have little confidence in a return of the Bull for > > many moons. The automobile industry with its attendant > > suppliers such as steel, glass, rubber, plastics, etc., > > has been trashed; housing has typically propelled the new > > Bull, but housing has already had its own run with little > > effect on the overall market. Consumer Confidence would > > seem to be a bright spot, but it probably is the result > > of lower mortgage payments due to massive refinancing and > > bargains picked up by consumers at the expense of the > > producers, the very folks that we look to for increased > > earnings. There's more, but this grows lengthy so I'll > > shut up. Thanks for your note. > > Best wishes, > > Walt > > > > ----- Original Message ----- > > From: Ian > > To: canslim@lists.xmission.com > > Sent: Tuesday, January 22, 2002 12:32 PM > > Subject: [CANSLIM] Panic attack ... > > > > > > Here's a very interesting recent quote from Peter > > Eliades of Stock Market Cycles: "At the end of todays > > trading, we noticed that the lowest single day TRIN > > reading over the past 10 trading days was 1.143. That > > seemed unusual to us, so we asked the computer to look > > back over the past 61 years (since 1940) to find out how > > many other 10 day periods had transpired without one > > single day reading below 1.14. We were stunned at the > > answer! The answer is none." > > > > The 10 day ARMS index (TRIN) got up to 1.5 again last > > week. It used to have huge historical significance in > > indicating that a major bottom was to be put in within 20 > > trading days. It has now happened 4 times in the past > > year alone. > > > > I don't pretend to know what it means, but there > > certainly has been a considerable amount of panic over > > the last 2 weeks. > > > > Ian > > > > > > PS - Here is a quick overview of the ARMS index that > > someone asked for: > > http://www.equis.com/free/taaz/armsindex.html > > > > > __________________________________________________ > Do You Yahoo!? > Great stuff seeking new owners in Yahoo! Auctions! > http://auctions.yahoo.com > > - > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. > - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 24 Jan 2002 10:26:49 -0800 From: Ian Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Panic attack ... This is a multi-part message in MIME format. - --Boundary_(ID_A7+pNmZzUjs+hkWoTgXoMA) Content-type: text/plain; charset=iso-8859-1 Content-transfer-encoding: 7BIT Walt: My only interest in TRIN readings is in when it reaches extreme sustained historical highs - which I take to indicate exhaustion selling - meaning it will be followed by a significant upturn. These readings are very rare - so there is no way I would look to TRIN for short-term wiggles. That being said, I am surprised that you think the extreme panic recently indicated means that "it will probably be followed by a downturn". Why would you think that? My take is that it signals that we are running out of indiscriminate sellers. I believe that the recent strong volatility in both directions is indicative of the beginnings of a new bull. IMHO, it is needed to separate out the most tired of the last bulls winners - those are the ones that drop in the selloffs, but dont rebound strongly in the surges. I find it interesting that most on this board are quite bearish, while I find myself with the lowest cash position in well over a year, and a growing supply of buyer-friendly microcaps. Cheers, Ian ----- Original Message ----- From: Tom Worley To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Sent: Wednesday, January 23, 2002 10:37 AM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Panic attack ... Walter, I would have to disagree with part of your conclusion. While the housing industry did not prevent the start of a recession, it is likely that it significantly helped to make it a shallow recession, and will help end it early. There still seems to be a lot of juice left in the home builders group, and I was adding more to my three positions in my fund today. Adding to Consumer Sentiment, in addition to lower mortgage payments, is lower energy costs. That, plus the tax cuts that started 1/1/02, means a little more money in everyone's paycheck or wallet. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net AIM: TexWorley ----- Original Message ----- From: walter nusbaum To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Sent: Wednesday, January 23, 2002 11:58 AM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Panic attack ... Ian, "Stock Market Cycles" was rated "F" in up markets and A+ in down markets with an annualized gain of 4.6% since 5/31/90(sic), according to Forbes(22 JAN 01); not exactly the kind of numbers that inspire confidence. At any rate, there is nothing in the theory or construction of TRIN that allows for speculation as to the degree of market change. It is a great market reversal indicator and that's all. According to Elder, the market can stay over bought/sold for some time and the time to take action is immediately after TRIN makes a reversal off its high/low reading and re-penetrates the overbought or oversold line.(The Equis link says to buy/sell upon reaching the line, which is a specific number. Elder's recommendation puts you in sync with the new trend. I don't know what TRIN was doing during the debacle of 2000, but I suspect(using the Equis standard) it gave buy signals loooong before their time). The lines themselves should be revisited, and redrawn if necessary, every three months based upon the interaction of TRIN and the Index that is being used. The lines indicate areas of concern and specific numbers above or below the lines have little meaning. TRIN can not be used mechanically- the same readings mean different things under different market conditions(Bull/Bear). TRIN gives its best buy/sell signals when divergence from the Index being used is observed and when used in combination with the New High-New Low Index. Having said all that, 1.5 is a doozy of a number and will probably be followed by a downturn. I know nothing, but have little confidence in a return of the Bull for many moons. The automobile industry with its attendant suppliers such as steel, glass, rubber, plastics, etc., has been trashed; housing has typically propelled the new Bull, but housing has already had its own run with little effect on the overall market. Consumer Confidence would seem to be a bright spot, but it probably is the result of lower mortgage payments due to massive refinancing and bargains picked up by consumers at the expense of the producers, the very folks that we look to for increased earnings. There's more, but this grows lengthy so I'll shut up. Thanks for your note. Best wishes, Walt ----- Original Message ----- From: Ian To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Sent: Tuesday, January 22, 2002 12:32 PM Subject: [CANSLIM] Panic attack ... Here's a very interesting recent quote from Peter Eliades of Stock Market Cycles: "At the end of todays trading, we noticed that the lowest single day TRIN reading over the past 10 trading days was 1.143. That seemed unusual to us, so we asked the computer to look back over the past 61 years (since 1940) to find out how many other 10 day periods had transpired without one single day reading below 1.14. We were stunned at the answer! The answer is none." The 10 day ARMS index (TRIN) got up to 1.5 again last week. It used to have huge historical significance in indicating that a major bottom was to be put in within 20 trading days. It has now happened 4 times in the past year alone. I don't pretend to know what it means, but there certainly has been a considerable amount of panic over the last 2 weeks. Ian PS - Here is a quick overview of the ARMS index that someone asked for: http://www.equis.com/free/taaz/armsindex.html - --Boundary_(ID_A7+pNmZzUjs+hkWoTgXoMA) Content-type: text/html; charset=iso-8859-1 Content-transfer-encoding: 7BIT
Walt:
 
My only interest in TRIN readings is in when it reaches extreme sustained historical highs - which I take to indicate exhaustion selling - - meaning it will be followed by a significant upturn. These readings are very rare - so there is no way I would look to TRIN for short-term wiggles.
 
That being said, I am surprised that you think the extreme panic recently indicated means that "it will probably be followed by a downturn". Why would you think that? My take is that it signals that we are running out of indiscriminate sellers.
 
I believe that the recent strong volatility in both directions is indicative of the beginnings of a new bull. IMHO, it is needed to separate out the most tired of the last bulls winners - those are the ones that drop in the selloffs, but dont rebound strongly in the surges.
 
I find it interesting that most on this board are quite bearish, while I find myself with the lowest cash position in well over a year, and a growing supply of buyer-friendly microcaps.
 
Cheers,
 
Ian
 
 
----- Original Message -----
From: Tom Worley
Sent: Wednesday, January 23, 2002 10:37 AM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Panic attack ...

Walter,
 
I would have to disagree with part of your conclusion. While the housing industry did not prevent the start of a recession, it is likely that it significantly helped to make it a shallow recession, and will help end it early. There still seems to be a lot of juice left in the home builders group, and I was adding more to my three positions in my fund today. Adding to Consumer Sentiment, in addition to lower mortgage payments, is lower energy costs. That, plus the tax cuts that started 1/1/02, means a little more money in everyone's paycheck or wallet.
 
Tom Worley
stkguru@netside.net
AIM: TexWorley
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Wednesday, January 23, 2002 11:58 AM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Panic attack ...

Ian,
"Stock Market Cycles" was rated "F" in up markets and A+ in down markets with an annualized gain of 4.6% since 5/31/90(sic), according to Forbes(22 JAN 01); not exactly the kind of numbers that inspire confidence. At any rate, there is nothing in the theory or construction of TRIN that allows for speculation as to the degree of market change. It is a great market reversal indicator and that's all. According to Elder, the market can stay over bought/sold for some time and the time to take action is immediately after TRIN makes a reversal off its high/low reading and re-penetrates the overbought or oversold line.(The Equis link says to buy/sell upon reaching the line, which is a specific number. Elder's recommendation puts you in sync with the new trend. I don't know what TRIN was doing during the debacle of 2000, but I suspect(using the Equis standard) it gave buy signals loooong before their time).
 
The lines themselves should be revisited, and redrawn if necessary, every three months based upon the interaction of TRIN and the Index that is being used. The lines indicate areas of concern and specific numbers above or below the lines have little meaning. TRIN can not be used mechanically- the same readings mean different things under different market conditions(Bull/Bear). TRIN gives its best buy/sell signals when divergence from the Index being used is observed and when used in combination with the New High-New Low Index.
 
Having said all that, 1.5 is a doozy of a number and will probably be followed by a downturn. I know nothing, but have little confidence in a return of the Bull for many moons. The automobile industry with its attendant suppliers such as steel, glass, rubber, plastics, etc., has been trashed; housing has typically propelled the new Bull, but housing has already had its own run with little effect on the overall market. Consumer Confidence would seem to be a bright spot, but it probably is the result of lower mortgage payments due to massive refinancing and bargains picked up by consumers at the expense of the producers, the very folks that we look to for increased earnings. There's more, but this grows lengthy so I'll shut up. Thanks for your note.
Best wishes,
Walt
    
----- Original Message -----
From: Ian
Sent: Tuesday, January 22, 2002 12:32 PM
Subject: [CANSLIM] Panic attack ...

Here's a very interesting recent quote from Peter Eliades of Stock Market Cycles: "At the end of todays trading, we noticed that the lowest single day TRIN reading over the past 10 trading days was 1.143. That seemed unusual to us, so we asked the computer to look back over the past 61 years (since 1940) to find out how many other 10 day periods had transpired without one single day reading below 1.14. We were stunned at the answer! The answer is none."
 
The 10 day ARMS index (TRIN) got up to 1.5 again last week. It used to have huge historical significance in indicating that a major bottom was to be put in within 20 trading days. It has now happened 4 times in the past year alone.
 
I don't pretend to know what it means, but there certainly has been a considerable amount of panic over the last 2 weeks.
 
Ian
 
 
PS - Here is a quick overview of the ARMS index that someone asked for: http://www.equis.com/free/taaz/armsindex.html
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