From: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com (canslim-digest) To: canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Subject: canslim-digest V2 #2085 Reply-To: canslim Sender: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Errors-To: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Precedence: bulk Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable X-No-Archive: yes canslim-digest Saturday, January 26 2002 Volume 02 : Number 2085 In this issue: [CANSLIM] Worley's Weekend Weeview Re: [CANSLIM] Worley's Weekend Weeview Re: [CANSLIM] Worley's Weekend Weeview [CANSLIM] The Parlay (long!!) ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Date: Sat, 26 Jan 2002 09:23:13 -0500 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: [CANSLIM] Worley's Weekend Weeview This is a multi-part message in MIME format. - ------=_NextPart_000_0050_01C1A64B.144EA160 Content-Type: multipart/alternative; boundary="----=_NextPart_001_0051_01C1A64B.144EA160" - ------=_NextPart_001_0051_01C1A64B.144EA160 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable LEAVE IT TO THE JAPANESE A Japanese toymaker (Takara Co. Ltd.) intends to begin building electric = cars. Not toys, real cars, that can be driven on the highway. They also = make karaoke systems, robots that open beer cans, and remote operated = cars for young adults. - -------------------------------------------------------------------------= - ------- LEADING INDICATORS Latest report (for Dec) shows 8 of the 10 components rising, overall = rate up 1.2%. This is the third monthly improvement (largest since = 1996), and combined with the 0.8% gain in Nov, is the largest two month = gain since 1992. Best indication from this is no Fed rate cut Jan 30. = Since expectation of another 25 basis point cut is already priced into = the market, this could be bad, but likely more than offset by an upbeat = Greenspan. Mr. Greenspan address to Congress on Thursday did clarify, as = some rumors suggest his words on Jan 11 were taken as more bearish and = concerned about the economy than he intended. The coincident indicators, = BTW, which measure current economic activity, reversed to the positive = in December, up 0.1% after a drop of 0.3% in November. Still, I am now = expecting the Q4 GDP will end up being a negative number, confirming = that we had (note the past tense) a recession.=20 - -------------------------------------------------------------------------= - ------- UNEMPLOYMENT While expectations continue that the overall rate will rise to 6% or = higher, it is worth noting that new claims continue to fall, and this = week once again were below expectations. The 4 week average, a more = reliable indicator, also dipped nearly to 400,000, and continuing claims = dropped by 50,000.=20 - -------------------------------------------------------------------------= - ------- UPCOMING INFLUENCES This week is full of some major economic reports, plus the meeting of = FOMC on Tue/Wed. Monday we get new home sales (industry remains very = strong, saw a lot of good looking stocks today), Tuesday is Consumer = Confidence and Durable Goods reports, Wednesday we get the first reading = on the GDP for Q4, Thursday we get the Personal Income and Spending = Report, and Friday we get the Employment Report for January. - -------------------------------------------------------------------------= - ------- WORLEY'S WATCHLIST WANNABEES Although the markets didn't seem to do much this week, the population of = stocks I am reviewing this week is growing. New highs continue to = substantially exceed new lows, and up/down volume seemed to be higher as = well. As always, Bx is my shorthand for a flat line "B"ase of "x" weeks = duration, IMO. Any larger basing pattern I see, such as a cup & handle, = double bottom, LLUR, etc., I will state. BBY - c&h, handle 5+ weeks on declining volume BVN - c&h, handle 2 weeks, vol still high, Peruvian firm CEDC - LLUR CRFT - B6 DKWD - volatile LLUR DLX - amazingly smooth LLUR even tho forecasts not great ELTE - didn't quite break the pivot on Friday on 2X ADV EME - nice double bottom, low forecasts, handle trending slightly up on = low volume, 5 weeks EUNI - what a wild ride, can't read the chart, strong forecasts, low = price FCN - LLUR, broke out to the high side of range on volume FHRX - former LLUR that broke pattern to downside, may now be c&h = w/rough 5 week handle FMAR - high handle to the cup, low price and volume FRED - LLUR GFF - LLUR HCBK - smooth ascent, not sure how to read it but strong earnings = forecast and 3 div increases in 3 qtrs HOV - nice 5 week high handle on a smooth cup, low forecast and latest = qtr down slightly HTRN - high handle on nice cup, good forecast IART - high side of trading range, volume dropping, strong forecast MDCI - B4, well under high but good forecast NLY - B4 PENN - high handle forming? PETM - nice LLUR PFGC - c&h, started b/o Friday, nearly 2X ADV but not past pivot of = 36.35 POSS - B4 RGIS - B4 RYAN - LLUR SCVL - c&h, high handle 3 weeks STSA - c&h, new handle, selling vol above avg but price holding TASR - B2, EPS only 55 but earnings forecast 227% URBN - B5 WSH - tight B9 despite doing a secondary offering soon after the IPO WTSLA - B2 Happy Hunting, Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net AIM: TexWorley - ------=_NextPart_001_0051_01C1A64B.144EA160 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
LEAVE IT TO THE = JAPANESE
A Japanese toymaker (Takara Co. Ltd.) intends to = begin=20 building electric cars. Not toys, real cars, that can be driven on the = highway.=20 They also make karaoke systems, robots that open beer cans, and remote = operated=20 cars for young adults.
LEADING INDICATORS
Latest report (for Dec) shows 8 of the 10 components rising, = overall rate=20 up 1.2%. This is the third monthly improvement (largest since 1996), and = combined with the 0.8% gain in Nov, is the largest two month gain since = 1992.=20 Best indication from this is no Fed rate cut Jan 30. Since expectation = of=20 another 25 basis point cut is already priced into the market, this could = be bad,=20 but likely more than offset by an upbeat Greenspan. Mr. Greenspan = address to=20 Congress on Thursday did clarify, as some rumors suggest his = words on=20 Jan 11 were taken as more bearish and concerned about the economy = than he=20 intended. The coincident indicators, BTW, which measure current economic = activity, reversed to the positive in December, up 0.1% after a drop of = 0.3% in=20 November. Still, I am now expecting the Q4 GDP will end up being a = negative=20 number, confirming that we had (note the past tense) a recession.=20
UNEMPLOYMENT
While expectations continue that the overall rate will rise to 6% = or=20 higher, it is worth noting that new claims continue to fall, and this = week once=20 again were below expectations. The 4 week average, a more reliable = indicator,=20 also dipped nearly to 400,000, and continuing claims dropped by 50,000. =
UPCOMING INFLUENCES
This week is full of some major economic reports, plus the meeting = of FOMC=20 on Tue/Wed. Monday we get new home sales (industry remains very strong, = saw a=20 lot of good looking stocks today), Tuesday is Consumer Confidence and = Durable=20 Goods reports, Wednesday we get the first reading on the GDP for Q4, = Thursday we=20 get the Personal Income and Spending Report, and Friday we get the = Employment=20 Report for January.
WORLEY'S WATCHLIST WANNABEES
Although the markets didn't seem to do much this week, the = population of=20 stocks I am reviewing this week is growing. New highs continue to = substantially=20 exceed new lows, and up/down volume seemed to be higher as well.
 
As always, Bx is my shorthand for a flat line "B"ase of "x" weeks = duration,=20 IMO. Any larger basing pattern I see, such as a cup & handle, double = bottom,=20 LLUR, etc., I will state.
 
BBY - c&h, handle 5+ weeks on declining volume
BVN - c&h, handle 2 weeks, vol still high, Peruvian firm
CEDC - LLUR
CRFT - B6
DKWD - volatile LLUR
DLX - amazingly smooth LLUR even tho forecasts not great
ELTE - didn't quite break the pivot on Friday on 2X ADV
EME - nice double bottom, low forecasts, handle trending slightly = up on low=20 volume, 5 weeks
EUNI - what a wild ride, can't read the chart, strong forecasts, = low=20 price
FCN - LLUR, broke out to the high side of range on volume
FHRX - former LLUR that broke pattern to downside, may now be = c&h=20 w/rough 5 week handle
FMAR - high handle to the cup, low price and volume
FRED - LLUR
GFF - LLUR
HCBK - smooth ascent, not sure how to read it but strong earnings = forecast=20 and 3 div increases in 3 qtrs
HOV - nice 5 week high handle on a smooth cup, low forecast and = latest qtr=20 down slightly
HTRN - high handle on nice cup, good forecast
IART - high side of trading range, volume dropping, strong = forecast
MDCI - B4, well under high but good forecast
NLY - B4
PENN - high handle forming?
PETM - nice LLUR
PFGC - c&h, started b/o Friday, nearly 2X ADV but not past = pivot of=20 36.35
POSS - B4
RGIS - B4
RYAN - LLUR
SCVL - c&h, high handle 3 weeks
STSA - c&h, new handle, selling vol above avg but price = holding
TASR - B2, EPS only 55 but earnings forecast 227%
URBN - B5
WSH - tight B9 despite doing a secondary offering soon after the = IPO
WTSLA - B2
 
Happy Hunting,
 
3D""
 
Tom Worley
stkguru@netside.net
AIM:=20 TexWorley
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Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Sat, 26 Jan 2002 14:55:45 -0500 From: "Bert Pesak" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Worley's Weekend Weeview This is a multi-part message in MIME format. - ------=_NextPart_000_0012_01C1A679.88984A20 Content-Type: multipart/alternative; boundary="----=_NextPart_001_0013_01C1A679.889ABB20" - ------=_NextPart_001_0013_01C1A679.889ABB20 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable Hello All, I'm a new guy. =20 I have developed an interest in the Canslim process, as all the other = stock picking ideas I've tried haven't given me the results I've hoped = for. One thing I notice when reading the posts is you must spend a lot of = time doing your research. It appears to be a full time job.=20 The work that Tom Worley put in The Weekend Weeview must have taken many = hours of work. I would not mind putting in up to 2 hours a day, any more that would = interfere with my other projects. Is that enough time to find stocks = that will give me positive results. I've also noticed some very detailed posts as to the shape of various = graphs and the significance of the cup / handle / bottom, etc. Is that = kind of detail necessary or is it just fine tuning of the research? Any comments will help me make a decision whether to continue or begin = to look at Funds as an alternative to picking individual stocks. Are = there any funds that use the Canslim process? Thanks for your help. Bert Pesak bpesak@ct1.nai.net =20 ----- Original Message -----=20 From: Tom Worley=20 To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20 Sent: Saturday, January 26, 2002 9:23 AM Subject: [CANSLIM] Worley's Weekend Weeview LEAVE IT TO THE JAPANESE A Japanese toymaker (Takara Co. Ltd.) intends to begin building = electric cars. Not toys, real cars, that can be driven on the highway. = They also make karaoke systems, robots that open beer cans, and remote = operated cars for young adults. - -------------------------------------------------------------------------= - ----- LEADING INDICATORS Latest report (for Dec) shows 8 of the 10 components rising, overall = rate up 1.2%. This is the third monthly improvement (largest since = 1996), and combined with the 0.8% gain in Nov, is the largest two month = gain since 1992. Best indication from this is no Fed rate cut Jan 30. = Since expectation of another 25 basis point cut is already priced into = the market, this could be bad, but likely more than offset by an upbeat = Greenspan. Mr. Greenspan address to Congress on Thursday did clarify, as = some rumors suggest his words on Jan 11 were taken as more bearish and = concerned about the economy than he intended. The coincident indicators, = BTW, which measure current economic activity, reversed to the positive = in December, up 0.1% after a drop of 0.3% in November. Still, I am now = expecting the Q4 GDP will end up being a negative number, confirming = that we had (note the past tense) a recession.=20 - -------------------------------------------------------------------------= - ----- UNEMPLOYMENT While expectations continue that the overall rate will rise to 6% or = higher, it is worth noting that new claims continue to fall, and this = week once again were below expectations. The 4 week average, a more = reliable indicator, also dipped nearly to 400,000, and continuing claims = dropped by 50,000.=20 - -------------------------------------------------------------------------= - ----- UPCOMING INFLUENCES This week is full of some major economic reports, plus the meeting of = FOMC on Tue/Wed. Monday we get new home sales (industry remains very = strong, saw a lot of good looking stocks today), Tuesday is Consumer = Confidence and Durable Goods reports, Wednesday we get the first reading = on the GDP for Q4, Thursday we get the Personal Income and Spending = Report, and Friday we get the Employment Report for January. - -------------------------------------------------------------------------= - ----- WORLEY'S WATCHLIST WANNABEES Although the markets didn't seem to do much this week, the population = of stocks I am reviewing this week is growing. New highs continue to = substantially exceed new lows, and up/down volume seemed to be higher as = well. As always, Bx is my shorthand for a flat line "B"ase of "x" weeks = duration, IMO. Any larger basing pattern I see, such as a cup & handle, = double bottom, LLUR, etc., I will state. BBY - c&h, handle 5+ weeks on declining volume BVN - c&h, handle 2 weeks, vol still high, Peruvian firm CEDC - LLUR CRFT - B6 DKWD - volatile LLUR DLX - amazingly smooth LLUR even tho forecasts not great ELTE - didn't quite break the pivot on Friday on 2X ADV EME - nice double bottom, low forecasts, handle trending slightly up = on low volume, 5 weeks EUNI - what a wild ride, can't read the chart, strong forecasts, low = price FCN - LLUR, broke out to the high side of range on volume FHRX - former LLUR that broke pattern to downside, may now be c&h = w/rough 5 week handle FMAR - high handle to the cup, low price and volume FRED - LLUR GFF - LLUR HCBK - smooth ascent, not sure how to read it but strong earnings = forecast and 3 div increases in 3 qtrs HOV - nice 5 week high handle on a smooth cup, low forecast and latest = qtr down slightly HTRN - high handle on nice cup, good forecast IART - high side of trading range, volume dropping, strong forecast MDCI - B4, well under high but good forecast NLY - B4 PENN - high handle forming? PETM - nice LLUR PFGC - c&h, started b/o Friday, nearly 2X ADV but not past pivot of = 36.35 POSS - B4 RGIS - B4 RYAN - LLUR SCVL - c&h, high handle 3 weeks STSA - c&h, new handle, selling vol above avg but price holding TASR - B2, EPS only 55 but earnings forecast 227% URBN - B5 WSH - tight B9 despite doing a secondary offering soon after the IPO WTSLA - B2 Happy Hunting, Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net AIM: TexWorley - ------=_NextPart_001_0013_01C1A679.889ABB20 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
Hello All,
 
I'm a new guy. 
 
I have developed an interest in the Canslim process, = as all=20 the other stock picking ideas I've tried haven't given me the results = I've hoped=20 for.
 
One thing I notice when reading the posts is you = must spend a=20 lot of time doing your research. It appears to be a full time job. =
 
The work that Tom Worley put in The Weekend Weeview = must have=20 taken many hours of work.
 
I would not mind putting in up to 2 hours a day, any = more that=20 would interfere with my other projects.  Is that enough time to = find stocks=20 that will give me positive results.
 
I've also noticed some very detailed posts as to the = shape of=20 various graphs and the significance of the cup / handle / bottom, = etc.  Is=20 that kind of detail necessary or is it just fine tuning of the=20 research?
 
Any comments will help me make a decision whether to = continue=20 or begin to look at Funds as an alternative to picking individual = stocks. =20 Are there any funds that use the Canslim process?
 
Thanks for your help.
Bert Pesak
 
bpesak@ct1.nai.net
 
 
 
----- Original Message -----
From:=20 Tom = Worley=20
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=
Sent: Saturday, January 26, = 2002 9:23=20 AM
Subject: [CANSLIM] Worley's = Weekend=20 Weeview

LEAVE IT TO THE = JAPANESE
A Japanese toymaker (Takara Co. Ltd.) intends = to begin=20 building electric cars. Not toys, real cars, that can be driven on the = highway. They also make karaoke systems, robots that open beer cans, = and=20 remote operated cars for young adults.
LEADING INDICATORS
Latest report (for Dec) shows 8 of the 10 components rising, = overall rate=20 up 1.2%. This is the third monthly improvement (largest since 1996), = and=20 combined with the 0.8% gain in Nov, is the largest two month gain = since 1992.=20 Best indication from this is no Fed rate cut Jan 30. Since expectation = of=20 another 25 basis point cut is already priced into the market, this = could be=20 bad, but likely more than offset by an upbeat Greenspan. Mr. Greenspan = address=20 to Congress on Thursday did clarify, as some rumors suggest his=20 words on Jan 11 were taken as more bearish and concerned = about the=20 economy than he intended. The coincident indicators, BTW, which = measure=20 current economic activity, reversed to the positive in December, up = 0.1% after=20 a drop of 0.3% in November. Still, I am now expecting the Q4 GDP will = end up=20 being a negative number, confirming that we had (note the past tense) = a=20 recession.=20
UNEMPLOYMENT
While expectations continue that the overall rate will rise to 6% = or=20 higher, it is worth noting that new claims continue to fall, and this = week=20 once again were below expectations. The 4 week average, a more = reliable=20 indicator, also dipped nearly to 400,000, and continuing claims = dropped by=20 50,000.
UPCOMING INFLUENCES
This week is full of some major economic reports, plus the = meeting of=20 FOMC on Tue/Wed. Monday we get new home sales (industry remains very = strong,=20 saw a lot of good looking stocks today), Tuesday is Consumer = Confidence and=20 Durable Goods reports, Wednesday we get the first reading on the GDP = for Q4,=20 Thursday we get the Personal Income and Spending Report, and Friday we = get the=20 Employment Report for January.
WORLEY'S WATCHLIST WANNABEES
Although the markets didn't seem to do much this week, the = population of=20 stocks I am reviewing this week is growing. New highs continue to=20 substantially exceed new lows, and up/down volume seemed to be higher = as=20 well.
 
As always, Bx is my shorthand for a flat line "B"ase of "x" weeks = duration, IMO. Any larger basing pattern I see, such as a cup & = handle,=20 double bottom, LLUR, etc., I will state.
 
BBY - c&h, handle 5+ weeks on declining volume
BVN - c&h, handle 2 weeks, vol still high, Peruvian = firm
CEDC - LLUR
CRFT - B6
DKWD - volatile LLUR
DLX - amazingly smooth LLUR even tho forecasts not great
ELTE - didn't quite break the pivot on Friday on 2X ADV
EME - nice double bottom, low forecasts, handle trending slightly = up on=20 low volume, 5 weeks
EUNI - what a wild ride, can't read the chart, strong forecasts, = low=20 price
FCN - LLUR, broke out to the high side of range on volume
FHRX - former LLUR that broke pattern to downside, may now be = c&h=20 w/rough 5 week handle
FMAR - high handle to the cup, low price and volume
FRED - LLUR
GFF - LLUR
HCBK - smooth ascent, not sure how to read it but strong earnings = forecast and 3 div increases in 3 qtrs
HOV - nice 5 week high handle on a smooth cup, low forecast and = latest=20 qtr down slightly
HTRN - high handle on nice cup, good forecast
IART - high side of trading range, volume dropping, strong = forecast
MDCI - B4, well under high but good forecast
NLY - B4
PENN - high handle forming?
PETM - nice LLUR
PFGC - c&h, started b/o Friday, nearly 2X ADV but not past = pivot of=20 36.35
POSS - B4
RGIS - B4
RYAN - LLUR
SCVL - c&h, high handle 3 weeks
STSA - c&h, new handle, selling vol above avg but price = holding
TASR - B2, EPS only 55 but earnings forecast 227%
URBN - B5
WSH - tight B9 despite doing a secondary offering soon after the=20 IPO
WTSLA - B2
 
Happy Hunting,
 
3D""
 
Tom Worley
stkguru@netside.net
AIM:=20 TexWorley
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Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Sat, 26 Jan 2002 13:05:52 -0800 From: esetser Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Worley's Weekend Weeview The time required for CANSLIM varies significantly based on your specific approach and your tools, but overall, I think 2 hours per day is plenty. I use primarily Daily Graphs Online to perform initial screening on the weekend, and to go through the charts and generate a candidate list for the next week. Given something like 2-3 hours on the weekend, it takes me very little time during the week to monitor the list. In addition, I only generate the lists when I'm in the market for a new purchase, so I don't always go through the process each weekend. As far as chart details, this group is a great place to compare notes on various charts and see how others are interpreting various formations. I think it's only when you are close to a decision that you need to look at all the finer points of the chart. At least for me, I do a very quick chart review before placing it on a candidate list, but a much closer look when considering an imminent purchase. At 02:55 PM 1/26/02 -0500, you wrote: > Hello All, I have developed an interest in the Canslim process, >as all the other stock picking ideas I've tried haven't given me the >results I've hoped for. One thing I notice when reading the posts is you >must spend a lot of time doing your research. It appears to be a full time >job. The work that Tom Worley put in The Weekend Weeview must have >taken many hours of work. Is that enough time to find stocks that will >give me positive results. Is that kind of detail necessary or is it >just fine tuning of the research? Are there any funds that use the >Canslim process? Thanks for your help. Bert Pesak bpesak@ct1.nai.net > ----- Original Message ----- From: Tom Worley To: >canslim@lists.xmission.com Sent: Saturday, January 26, 2002 9:23 AM >Subject: [CANSLIM] Worley's Weekend Weeview > LEAVE IT TO THE JAPANESE A Japanese toymaker (Takara Co. Ltd.) intends >to begin building electric cars. Not toys, real cars, that can be driven >on the highway. They also make karaoke systems, robots that open beer >cans, and remote operated cars for young adults. > LEADING INDICATORS were taken as more bearish and concerned >about the economy than he intended. The coincident indicators, BTW, >which measure current economic activity, reversed to the positive in >December, up 0.1% after a drop of 0.3% in November. Still, I am now >expecting the Q4 GDP will end up being a negative number, confirming >that we had (note the past tense) a recession. > UNEMPLOYMENT While expectations continue that the overall rate will >rise to 6% or higher, it is worth noting that new claims continue to >fall, and this week once again were below expectations. The 4 week >average, a more reliable indicator, also dipped nearly to 400,000, and >continuing claims dropped by 50,000. > UPCOMING INFLUENCES This week is full of some major economic >reports, plus the meeting of FOMC on Tue/Wed. Monday we get new home >sales (industry remains very strong, saw a lot of good looking stocks >today), Tuesday is Consumer Confidence and Durable Goods reports, >Wednesday we get the first reading on the GDP for Q4, Thursday we get >the Personal Income and Spending Report, and Friday we get the >Employment Report for January. > WORLEY'S WATCHLIST WANNABEES Although the markets didn't seem to do >much this week, the population of stocks I am reviewing this week is >growing. New highs continue to substantially exceed new lows, and >up/down volume seemed to be higher as well. & handle, double >bottom, LLUR, etc., I will state. &h, handle 5+ weeks on declining >volume &h, handle 2 weeks, vol still high, Peruvian firm CEDC - LLUR >CRFT - B6 DKWD - volatile LLUR DLX - amazingly smooth LLUR even tho >forecasts not great ELTE - didn't quite break the pivot on Friday on 2X >ADV EME - nice double bottom, low forecasts, handle trending slightly up >on low volume, 5 weeks EUNI - what a wild ride, can't read the chart, >strong forecasts, low price FCN - LLUR, broke out to the high side of >range on volume &h w/rough 5 week handle FMAR - high handle to the >cup, low price and volume FRED - LLUR GFF - LLUR HCBK - smooth >ascent, not sure how to read it but strong earnings forecast and 3 div >increases in 3 qtrs HOV - nice 5 week high handle on a smooth cup, low >forecast and latest qtr down slightly HTRN - high handle on nice cup, >good forecast IART - high side of trading range, volume dropping, strong >forecast MDCI - B4, well under high but good forecast NLY - B4 PENN - >high handle forming? PETM - nice LLUR &h, started b/o Friday, nearly 2X >ADV but not past pivot of 36.35 POSS - B4 RGIS - B4 RYAN - LLUR >&h, high handle 3 weeks &h, new handle, selling vol above avg but price >holding TASR - B2, EPS only 55 but earnings forecast 227% URBN - B5 >WSH - tight B9 despite doing a secondary offering soon after the IPO >WTSLA - B2 Happy Hunting, Tom Worley >stkguru@netside.net >AIM: TexWorley > Attachment Converted: "c:\covad\eudora\attach\USflag1.gif" - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Sat, 26 Jan 2002 16:22:00 -0500 From: "Gail Koch" Subject: [CANSLIM] The Parlay (long!!) This is a multi-part message in MIME format. - ------=_NextPart_000_3960_390b_63c0 Content-Type: text/plain; format=flowed I've been a member of this list for the past 6 or so months and have enjoyed the insightful posts by many of the members. I haven't posted any messages until now. Unfortunately this is a little off the CANSLIM topic. I want to describe an investment strategy I've been using recently with my 401(k) and get any opinions that you may have on my strategy. Our company has an excellent 401(k) plan. We have about 10 mutual funds we can choose between including Janus, White Oak, State Street Aurora, Legg Mason Value, Putnam International Growth (POVSX), JP Morgan Institutional Growth (JNUSX), Fidelity Growth and Income, etc. Also, we can switch our investment mix every trading day before 4pm. White Oak is largely a large cap tech fund. During 1999 and early 2000 I rode White Oak up and then unfortunately I rode it back down during the latter part of 2000 and until mid-2001. Early in 2001 I noticed a trend. When the American market indices (DOW, S&P, NASDAQ) are up it seemed that the international market was often up the next day. Thus, gains in the American market might possibly be "parlayed" into gains in the foreign mutual funds. In August of last year I spent a solid weekend backtesting that theory. I looked at the NAS, Dow, and S&P over a 5-year period (Aug 1996 to Aug 2001) which covered 1298 trading days and then determined the gain or loss of the foreign funds the next day. The results of my study were surprising and are summarized as follows: 1. When the NAS is up by any amount, the international funds (POVSX, JNUSX) were up the next day 69% of the time. More specifically, for the 1298 trading days studied, the NAS was up 701 days. POVSX was up the next day 485 (69%) times, down 198 (28%) times, and unchanged 18 (3%) times. 2. I looked at various “triggers” to determine when to move into the foreign funds. I considered various percent changes in the DOW, S&P, and NAS. I found that the best “trigger” was simply the NAS being positive. 3. The average daily gain for each of the 701 days in POVSX was .379%. If $10,000 would have been invested in the middle of 1996 and this strategy used, it would have grown to $158,300 by August 2001. More details on my study are provided in the attached WORD file. Sorry this post is so long. I would appreciate any feedback on this strategy. I have used it exclusively since July of last year and it seems to work fine. In the second half of 2001 I increased the value of my 401(k) by 22% not counting the monthly additions from my salary. That performance far surpasses the performance of any individual mutual fund choice in my 401(k) or the performance of the overall market. _________________________________________________________________ Chat with friends online, try MSN Messenger: http://messenger.msn.com - ------=_NextPart_000_3960_390b_63c0 Content-Type: application/msword; name="The Parlay 1_26_02.doc" Content-Transfer-Encoding: base64 Content-Disposition: attachment; filename="The Parlay 1_26_02.doc" 0M8R4KGxGuEAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAPgADAP7/CQAGAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAB AAAAXAAAAAAAAAAAEAAAXgAAAAEAAAD+////AAAAAFsAAAD///////////// //////////////////////////////////////////////////////////// //////////////////////////////////////////////////////////// //////////////////////////////////////////////////////////// //////////////////////////////////////////////////////////// //////////////////////////////////////////////////////////// //////////////////////////////////////////////////////////// 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