From: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com (canslim-digest) To: canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Subject: canslim-digest V2 #2122 Reply-To: canslim Sender: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Errors-To: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Precedence: bulk Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable X-No-Archive: yes canslim-digest Friday, February 15 2002 Volume 02 : Number 2122 In this issue: Re: [CANSLIM] The last one bites the dust ... Re: [CANSLIM] LECO Re: [CANSLIM] QP Scan for LLUR [CANSLIM] MTH [CANSLIM] Lack of Buy Candidates Re: [CANSLIM] Lack of Buy Candidates Re: [CANSLIM] MTH Re: [CANSLIM] Lack of Buy Candidates RE: [CANSLIM] MTH Re: [CANSLIM] MTH Re: [CANSLIM] Lack of Buy Candidates ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Date: Thu, 14 Feb 2002 22:32:27 -0500 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] The last one bites the dust ... Hi Ian, A month ago I was having no problem finding good small and micro cap stocks. Last two weeks the pickings have been extremely slim, one or two a week. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net AIM: TexWorley - ----- Original Message ----- From: "Ian" To: Sent: Thursday, February 14, 2002 12:42 PM Subject: [CANSLIM] The last one bites the dust ... > NMHC, the last of the 4 stocks that have propelled me in recent days, has > joined ELTE, QMDC and CEDC in biting the dust. > > I now have as large a cash position as I've had in ages - the only things I > see rising here are the heavily -shorted momentum favourites. Short-squeeze > led rallies are always a little discouraging to me, I think I'd rather see > the DOW not jump 500 points in a couple of days. That being said, I strongly > believe that the manic-depressive nature of the market will allow > micro/smallcaps with great fundies to go on sustained runs - I just need to > find them. > > Ian > > > - > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. > > - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 14 Feb 2002 22:48:29 -0500 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] LECO don't own it, Warren, but I would be cautious. Of the past 4 quarters, earnings declined 3 of 4 qtrs, and sales declined all 4 qtrs. And forecast for 2002 is a negative 1%. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net AIM: TexWorley - ----- Original Message ----- From: "Warren Keuffel" To: "CANSLIM list" Sent: Thursday, February 14, 2002 1:25 PM Subject: [CANSLIM] LECO > Bot some LECO day before yesterday -- not totally happy with the chart, > but we will see... Anyone else in LECO? > > Warren > > > - > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. > > - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 14 Feb 2002 22:57:23 -0800 From: "Perry Stanfield" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] QP Scan for LLUR Quan, Patrick, I am just starting out with HGSI and QP/2. I've looked through the qp2 help tutorial, but I'm not seeing anything describing code such as you guys are coming up with. Is on supposed to be able to cut/paste your code into a file and run it in qp? Kind of off topic; email me personally if you like. Thanks Perry - ----- Original Message ----- From: "Quan Tran" To: Sent: Thursday, February 14, 2002 1:36 PM Subject: [CANSLIM] QP Scan for LLUR > This is my first attempt, probably will need more > fine tuning. > > All constructive comments are welcome. > > > // Scan for LLUR > Output = "QT-LLUR.lst"; > IssueType Common; > > integer i; > integer LLUR; > integer bTightRange; > > // Higher close than previous 40-day close > // during the pass 200 days. > LLUR := 1; > > for i = 0 to -200 step -40 > do > if > close(i) < close(i-40) > then > LLUR := 0; > endif; > next i; > > // Daily 7-day ATR (Average True Range) less than 1.5 > // in the pass 200 days. > bTightRange := 1; > > for i = 0 to -200 step -1 > do > if > ATR(i) > 1.5 > then > bTightRange := 0; > endif; > next i; > > // Print out the stock meeting the above conditions. > if > close(0) > 10 > and > LLUR = 1 > and > bTightRange = 1 > then > println symbol; > endif; > > ////////////////////////////////////////////////// > > Here the results of today scan: > AAAB > AEM > AHCI > ALR > AOT > ARG > ATU > AVD > AWK > BKR > BMS > BWL A > BYS > CAG > CBIN > CEDC > CFFC > CFSB > CIV > CNBA > CRVL > CTWS > CVBF > DEAR > DLX > EQSB > FBSI > FSBK > FTCG > FWV > GAN > GG > GNWR > HABC > HR > HRH > IDCO > IFCJ > IKN > KEX > KMX > KNGT > KROL > LARL > LNCB > MATW > MCL > MHM > NFI > NJR > NMHC > NOLD > NXL > OFIX > OLP > ONFC > OZRK > PBCI > PETM > PFFC > PHC > PLSK > PNP > PSFC > PTRS > REBC > RGIS > RGS > RYAN > SAFE > SAL > SFFS > SONC > STK > SUI > SVBF > TARR > TMA > UNF > URBN > WEBK > WRO > YFCB > > > > ===== > Quan Tran > vyellon@yahoo.com > > __________________________________________________ > Do You Yahoo!? > Send FREE Valentine eCards with Yahoo! Greetings! > http://greetings.yahoo.com > > - > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 15 Feb 2002 14:25:30 +0000 From: "HARBOL GAURANG" Subject: [CANSLIM] MTH Hi, This is my frist post to this group. I've been frequenting this group for quite sometime. For MTH I'm seeing a long cup (starting from July 01) with 3weeks of very tight handle. During the bottom and uptrend, there are more nos of up volume weeks where price is also up. Fundamentals looks good. %EPS Chg recent quarters: 26.9%, 33.0% %Rev Chg recent quarters: 44.5%, 52.5% But %EPS Projected CFY = 8.92 and %EPS Projected NFY = 14.89 Thanks, Harbol _________________________________________________________________ MSN Photos is the easiest way to share and print your photos: http://photos.msn.com/support/worldwide.aspx - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 15 Feb 2002 09:40:26 -0500 From: "Rob Miller" Subject: [CANSLIM] Lack of Buy Candidates This is a multi-part message in MIME format. - ------=_NextPart_000_001C_01C1B604.CC340450 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable Even if we have a FTD from here, I see few stocks worth buying. = However, my short list is overflowing. The only moderately attractive = stocks I see on the long side are those already in an uptrend that are = riding their lower channel. Is shorting considered off limits for this list? I know that WON = discourages it, but he also claimed to make good money from shorts in = HTMMIS. As I understand it, he discourages it as a medium for the = masses, nor necessarily for everyone. =20 Rob =20 - ------=_NextPart_000_001C_01C1B604.CC340450 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
Even if we have a FTD from here, I see = few stocks=20 worth buying.  However, my short list is overflowing.  The = only=20 moderately attractive stocks I see on the long side are those already in = an=20 uptrend that are riding their lower channel.
 
Is shorting considered off = limits for=20 this list?  I know that WON discourages it, but he also claimed to = make=20 good money from shorts in HTMMIS.  As I understand it, = he discourages=20 it as a medium for the masses, nor necessarily for=20 everyone.  
 
Rob   =
- ------=_NextPart_000_001C_01C1B604.CC340450-- - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 15 Feb 2002 09:44:28 -0500 From: "Rob Miller" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Lack of Buy Candidates This is a multi-part message in MIME format. - ------=_NextPart_000_0026_01C1B605.5C96C140 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable Pardon my spelling...that's "not necessarily for everyone." ----- Original Message -----=20 From: Rob Miller=20 To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20 Sent: Friday, February 15, 2002 9:40 AM Subject: [CANSLIM] Lack of Buy Candidates Even if we have a FTD from here, I see few stocks worth buying. = However, my short list is overflowing. The only moderately attractive = stocks I see on the long side are those already in an uptrend that are = riding their lower channel. Is shorting considered off limits for this list? I know that WON = discourages it, but he also claimed to make good money from shorts in = HTMMIS. As I understand it, he discourages it as a medium for the = masses, nor necessarily for everyone. =20 Rob =20 - ------=_NextPart_000_0026_01C1B605.5C96C140 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
Pardon my spelling...that's "not = necessarily for=20 everyone."
----- Original Message -----
From:=20 Rob=20 Miller
Sent: Friday, February 15, 2002 = 9:40=20 AM
Subject: [CANSLIM] Lack of Buy=20 Candidates

Even if we have a FTD from here, I = see few stocks=20 worth buying.  However, my short list is overflowing.  The = only=20 moderately attractive stocks I see on the long side are those already = in an=20 uptrend that are riding their lower channel.
 
Is shorting considered off = limits for=20 this list?  I know that WON discourages it, but he also claimed = to make=20 good money from shorts in HTMMIS.  As I understand it,=20 he discourages it as a medium for the masses, = nor necessarily=20 for everyone.  
 
Rob  =20
- ------=_NextPart_000_0026_01C1B605.5C96C140-- - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 15 Feb 2002 09:48:55 -0500 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] MTH Hi Harbol, I continue to see strength in the home builders group, and suspect it will be sustained for most of this year at least. I have several in my VR Fund, and all doing well, OHB (small cap, thinly traded) already hit another new high this morning on volume. With MTH, I would be cautious as the earnings forecast consensus at DGO indicates +8% this year and +15% next year. Most of the home builders I have looked at have much stronger forecasts. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net AIM: TexWorley - ----- Original Message ----- From: "HARBOL GAURANG" To: Sent: Friday, February 15, 2002 9:25 AM Subject: [CANSLIM] MTH > Hi, > This is my frist post to this group. I've been frequenting this group for > quite sometime. > > For MTH I'm seeing a long cup (starting from July 01) with 3weeks of very > tight handle. During the bottom and uptrend, there are more nos of up volume > weeks where price is also up. > > Fundamentals looks good. > %EPS Chg recent quarters: 26.9%, 33.0% > %Rev Chg recent quarters: 44.5%, 52.5% > > But %EPS Projected CFY = 8.92 and %EPS Projected NFY = 14.89 > > Thanks, > Harbol > > _________________________________________________________________ > MSN Photos is the easiest way to share and print your photos: > http://photos.msn.com/support/worldwide.aspx > > > - > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. > > - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 15 Feb 2002 08:54:26 -0600 From: "Katherine Malm" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Lack of Buy Candidates This is a multi-part message in MIME format. - ------=_NextPart_000_00B8_01C1B5FE.5F1029E0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable Hi Rob, I know there are plenty of folks here who short, but the subject only = comes up on occasion because you are right, it is an advanced trading = technique in comparison to CANSLIM in general. I'd also agree with you = that my short scans are turning up far more candidates than my long = scans. At the same time, however, I also see plenty of good quality = CANSLIM stocks continuing to build healthy bases. All in all, I'd say = the market is "stuck!" Katherine ----- Original Message -----=20 From: Rob Miller=20 To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20 Sent: Friday, February 15, 2002 8:40 AM Subject: [CANSLIM] Lack of Buy Candidates Even if we have a FTD from here, I see few stocks worth buying. = However, my short list is overflowing. The only moderately attractive = stocks I see on the long side are those already in an uptrend that are = riding their lower channel. Is shorting considered off limits for this list? I know that WON = discourages it, but he also claimed to make good money from shorts in = HTMMIS. As I understand it, he discourages it as a medium for the = masses, nor necessarily for everyone. =20 Rob =20 - ------=_NextPart_000_00B8_01C1B5FE.5F1029E0 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
Hi Rob,
 
I know there are plenty of folks here who short, but the subject = only comes=20 up on occasion because you are right, it is an advanced trading = technique in=20 comparison to CANSLIM in general. I'd also agree with you that my short = scans=20 are turning up far more candidates than my long scans. At the same time, = however, I also see plenty of good quality CANSLIM stocks continuing to = build=20 healthy bases. All in all, I'd say the market is "stuck!"
 
Katherine
----- Original Message -----
From:=20 Rob=20 Miller
Sent: Friday, February 15, 2002 = 8:40=20 AM
Subject: [CANSLIM] Lack of Buy=20 Candidates

Even if we have a FTD from here, I = see few stocks=20 worth buying.  However, my short list is overflowing.  The = only=20 moderately attractive stocks I see on the long side are those already = in an=20 uptrend that are riding their lower channel.
 
Is shorting considered off = limits for=20 this list?  I know that WON discourages it, but he also claimed = to make=20 good money from shorts in HTMMIS.  As I understand it,=20 he discourages it as a medium for the masses, = nor necessarily=20 for everyone.  
 
Rob  =20
- ------=_NextPart_000_00B8_01C1B5FE.5F1029E0-- - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 15 Feb 2002 09:29:10 -0600 From: "Fred Richards" Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] MTH A word of caution about home building from the Chapman letter this week. "If you can believe this, the White House has warned Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, that they may be taking on too much risk in sub prime loans. Debt for both enterprises rose from $518 billion in September 1997 to $1.26 trillion at the end of September 2001, an annualized growth of 25% a year. The mortgage asset portfolios have increased 150% in dollar volume and their guarantees of mortgage-backed securities increased 40%. The Bush budget said increased guarantee volume and retained portfolios imply increased credit and interest rate exposure. Furthermore, the budget added, the hedging transactions transform credit or interest-rate risk into counter party risk (the risk that the counter party of a hedging transaction fails to honor the contract). Thus, the GSE's management of counter party risk is of increasing importance. This is of extraordinary significance. This means the Treasury sees real counter party failures coming on the heals of Enron. It is an edict to Fannie and Freddie, from which 38% of new loans have been sub prime, to stop writing and insuring them. That means housing starts and sales will fall as well as prices. There will no longer be a push from the bottom to buy the low cost house to propel its current owners upward. Then the failures begin, and the losses for these GSE's, then the major fall in housing prices. It's all right here. If you ever wanted to sell do it now, the game is over. That also means all that liquidity supplied to the housing market, that ended up reducing debt and supplying liquidity is at an end. This is a momentous financial event. Take advantage of it, sell real estate. This, of course, will adversely affect the stock market and expedite deflation leading to deeper recession because not only will the real estate bubble break but also the debt bomb will explode and in turn, the derivative debacle will follow." - -----Original Message----- From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of Tom Worley Sent: Friday, February 15, 2002 8:49 AM To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] MTH Hi Harbol, I continue to see strength in the home builders group, and suspect it will be sustained for most of this year at least. I have several in my VR Fund, and all doing well, OHB (small cap, thinly traded) already hit another new high this morning on volume. With MTH, I would be cautious as the earnings forecast consensus at DGO indicates +8% this year and +15% next year. Most of the home builders I have looked at have much stronger forecasts. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net AIM: TexWorley - ----- Original Message ----- From: "HARBOL GAURANG" To: Sent: Friday, February 15, 2002 9:25 AM Subject: [CANSLIM] MTH > Hi, > This is my frist post to this group. I've been frequenting this group for > quite sometime. > > For MTH I'm seeing a long cup (starting from July 01) with 3weeks of very > tight handle. During the bottom and uptrend, there are more nos of up volume > weeks where price is also up. > > Fundamentals looks good. > %EPS Chg recent quarters: 26.9%, 33.0% > %Rev Chg recent quarters: 44.5%, 52.5% > > But %EPS Projected CFY = 8.92 and %EPS Projected NFY = 14.89 > > Thanks, > Harbol > > _________________________________________________________________ > MSN Photos is the easiest way to share and print your photos: > http://photos.msn.com/support/worldwide.aspx > > > - > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. > > - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 15 Feb 2002 09:36:50 -0600 From: "Katherine Malm" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] MTH This is a multi-part message in MIME format. - ------=_NextPart_000_00E0_01C1B604.4B6DDC60 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable Hi Fred, Well, all I can say is "amen to that." I've been one of few on the list = lately who has seen the homebuilder group as a house of cards. As with = most debt structured markets/businesses (ENE's a great example), all it = takes is a few "losing faith" and the stack begins to crumble. It = happens with currencies, it happens with businesses, it could easily = happen to the home building markets---*especially* when the low end is = affected.=20 BTW, welcome to the list. A question for you to go with your homebuilding comment. Wouldn't this = be a good example as to why a person would not necessarily want to troll = for high RS/EPS/GRS stocks???? Katherine ----- Original Message -----=20 From: Fred Richards=20 To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20 Sent: Friday, February 15, 2002 9:29 AM Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] MTH A word of caution about home building from the Chapman letter this = week. "If you can believe this, the White House has warned Fannie Mae and = Freddie Mac, that they may be taking on too much risk in sub prime loans. Debt = for both enterprises rose from $518 billion in September 1997 to $1.26 = trillion at the end of September 2001, an annualized growth of 25% a year. The mortgage asset portfolios have increased 150% in dollar volume and = their guarantees of mortgage-backed securities increased 40%. The Bush = budget said increased guarantee volume and retained portfolios imply increased = credit and interest rate exposure. Furthermore, the budget added, the hedging transactions transform credit or interest-rate risk into counter party = risk (the risk that the counter party of a hedging transaction fails to = honor the contract). Thus, the GSE's management of counter party risk is of = increasing importance. This is of extraordinary significance. This means the = Treasury sees real counter party failures coming on the heals of Enron. It is = an edict to Fannie and Freddie, from which 38% of new loans have been sub prime, to stop writing and insuring them. That means housing starts = and sales will fall as well as prices. There will no longer be a push from = the bottom to buy the low cost house to propel its current owners upward. = Then the failures begin, and the losses for these GSE's, then the major = fall in housing prices. It's all right here. If you ever wanted to sell do it = now, the game is over. That also means all that liquidity supplied to the = housing market, that ended up reducing debt and supplying liquidity is at an = end. This is a momentous financial event. Take advantage of it, sell real = estate. This, of course, will adversely affect the stock market and expedite deflation leading to deeper recession because not only will the real = estate bubble break but also the debt bomb will explode and in turn, the = derivative debacle will follow." -----Original Message----- From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of Tom Worley Sent: Friday, February 15, 2002 8:49 AM To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] MTH Hi Harbol, I continue to see strength in the home builders group, and suspect it = will be sustained for most of this year at least. I have several in my VR = Fund, and all doing well, OHB (small cap, thinly traded) already hit another = new high this morning on volume. With MTH, I would be cautious as the earnings forecast consensus at = DGO indicates +8% this year and +15% next year. Most of the home builders = I have looked at have much stronger forecasts. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net AIM: TexWorley ----- Original Message ----- From: "HARBOL GAURANG" To: Sent: Friday, February 15, 2002 9:25 AM Subject: [CANSLIM] MTH > Hi, > This is my frist post to this group. I've been frequenting this = group for > quite sometime. > > For MTH I'm seeing a long cup (starting from July 01) with 3weeks of = very > tight handle. During the bottom and uptrend, there are more nos of = up volume > weeks where price is also up. > > Fundamentals looks good. > %EPS Chg recent quarters: 26.9%, 33.0% > %Rev Chg recent quarters: 44.5%, 52.5% > > But %EPS Projected CFY =3D 8.92 and %EPS Projected NFY =3D 14.89 > > Thanks, > Harbol > > _________________________________________________________________ > MSN Photos is the easiest way to share and print your photos: > http://photos.msn.com/support/worldwide.aspx > > > - > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. > > - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - ------=_NextPart_000_00E0_01C1B604.4B6DDC60 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
Hi Fred,
 
Well, all I can say is "amen to that." I've been one of few on the = list=20 lately who has seen the homebuilder group as a house of cards. As = with most=20 debt structured markets/businesses (ENE's a great example), all it takes = is a=20 few "losing faith" and the stack begins to crumble. It happens with = currencies,=20 it happens with businesses, it could easily happen to the home building=20 markets---*especially* when the low end is affected.
 
BTW, welcome to the list.
 
A question for you to go with your homebuilding comment. Wouldn't = this be a=20 good example as to why a person would not necessarily want to troll for = high=20 RS/EPS/GRS stocks????
 
Katherine
----- Original Message -----
From:=20 Fred = Richards
Sent: Friday, February 15, 2002 = 9:29=20 AM
Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] = MTH

A word of caution about home building from the Chapman = letter=20 this week.

"If you can believe this, the White House has warned = Fannie=20 Mae and Freddie
Mac, that they may be taking on too much risk in = sub prime=20 loans. Debt for
both enterprises rose from $518 billion in = September 1997=20 to $1.26 trillion
at the end of September 2001, an annualized = growth of 25%=20 a year. The
mortgage asset portfolios have increased 150% in dollar = volume=20 and their
guarantees of mortgage-backed securities increased 40%. = The Bush=20 budget said
increased guarantee volume and retained portfolios = imply=20 increased credit
and interest rate exposure. Furthermore, the = budget added,=20 the hedging
transactions transform credit or interest-rate risk = into=20 counter party risk
(the risk that the counter party of a hedging=20 transaction fails to honor the
contract). Thus, the GSE's = management of=20 counter party risk is of increasing
importance. This is of = extraordinary=20 significance. This means the Treasury
sees real counter party = failures=20 coming on the heals of Enron. It is an
edict to Fannie and Freddie, = from=20 which 38% of new loans have been sub
prime, to stop writing and = insuring=20 them. That means housing starts and
sales will fall as well as = prices.=20 There will no longer be a push from the
bottom to buy the low cost = house to=20 propel its current owners upward. Then
the failures begin, and the = losses=20 for these GSE's, then the major fall in
housing prices. It's all = right=20 here. If you ever wanted to sell do it now,
the game is over. That = also=20 means all that liquidity supplied to the housing
market, that ended = up=20 reducing debt and supplying liquidity is at an end.
This is a = momentous=20 financial event. Take advantage of it, sell real estate.
This, of = course,=20 will adversely affect the stock market and expedite
deflation = leading to=20 deeper recession because not only will the real estate
bubble break = but=20 also the debt bomb will explode and in turn, the derivative
debacle = will=20 follow."

-----Original Message-----
From: owner-canslim@lists.xmis= sion.com
[mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On=20 Behalf Of Tom Worley
Sent: Friday, February 15, 2002 8:49 AM
To: = canslim@lists.xmission.com=
Subject:=20 Re: [CANSLIM] MTH


Hi Harbol,

I continue to see = strength in=20 the home builders group, and suspect it will
be sustained for most = of this=20 year at least. I have several in my VR Fund,
and all doing well, = OHB (small=20 cap, thinly traded) already hit another new
high this morning on=20 volume.

With MTH, I would be cautious as the earnings forecast=20 consensus at DGO
indicates +8% this year and +15% next year. Most = of the=20 home builders I have
looked at have much stronger = forecasts.

Tom=20 Worley
stkguru@netside.net
AIM:=20 TexWorley
----- Original Message -----
From: "HARBOL GAURANG" = <morsandbihari@hotmail.com&g= t;
To:=20 <canslim@lists.xmission.com= >
Sent:=20 Friday, February 15, 2002 9:25 AM
Subject: [CANSLIM] = MTH


>=20 Hi,
> This is my frist post to this group. I've been frequenting = this=20 group for
> quite sometime.
>
> For MTH I'm seeing a = long=20 cup (starting from July 01) with 3weeks of very
> tight handle. = During=20 the bottom and uptrend, there are more nos of up
volume
> = weeks where=20 price is also up.
>
> Fundamentals looks good.
> = %EPS Chg=20 recent quarters: 26.9%, 33.0%
> %Rev Chg recent quarters: 44.5%, = 52.5%
>
> But %EPS Projected CFY =3D 8.92 and %EPS = Projected NFY =3D=20 14.89
>
> Thanks,
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-To = subscribe/unsubscribe,=20 email "majordomo@xmission.com"
-In= the=20 email body, write "subscribe canslim" or
-"unsubscribe = canslim".  Do=20 not use quotes in your email. - ------=_NextPart_000_00E0_01C1B604.4B6DDC60-- - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 15 Feb 2002 08:13:22 -0800 From: Ian Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Lack of Buy Candidates This is a multi-part message in MIME format. - --Boundary_(ID_Lt2Gy3/W60mc0lmoopvKWg) Content-type: text/plain; charset=iso-8859-1 Content-transfer-encoding: 7BIT I find it almost absurd that WON discourages shorting. Almost all of WON's ideas appear to have originated with Jesse Livermore, who made the bulk of his money on the short side. The rules for selling a big CANSLIM winner make for perfect short candidates. Although selling a failed breakout as it returns into its base is NOT typically a good short candidate. JMHO. Ian - ----- Original Message ----- From: Rob Miller To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Sent: Friday, February 15, 2002 6:40 AM Subject: [CANSLIM] Lack of Buy Candidates Even if we have a FTD from here, I see few stocks worth buying. However, my short list is overflowing. The only moderately attractive stocks I see on the long side are those already in an uptrend that are riding their lower channel. Is shorting considered off limits for this list? I know that WON discourages it, but he also claimed to make good money from shorts in HTMMIS. As I understand it, he discourages it as a medium for the masses, nor necessarily for everyone. Rob - --Boundary_(ID_Lt2Gy3/W60mc0lmoopvKWg) Content-type: text/html; charset=iso-8859-1 Content-transfer-encoding: 7BIT
I find it almost absurd that WON discourages shorting. Almost all of WON's ideas appear to have originated with Jesse Livermore, who made the bulk of his money on the short side. The rules for selling a big CANSLIM winner make for perfect short candidates. Although selling a failed breakout as it returns into its base is NOT typically a good short candidate. JMHO.
 
Ian
 
 
 
----- Original Message -----
From: Rob Miller
Sent: Friday, February 15, 2002 6:40 AM
Subject: [CANSLIM] Lack of Buy Candidates

Even if we have a FTD from here, I see few stocks worth buying.  However, my short list is overflowing.  The only moderately attractive stocks I see on the long side are those already in an uptrend that are riding their lower channel.
 
Is shorting considered off limits for this list?  I know that WON discourages it, but he also claimed to make good money from shorts in HTMMIS.  As I understand it, he discourages it as a medium for the masses, nor necessarily for everyone.  
 
Rob  
- --Boundary_(ID_Lt2Gy3/W60mc0lmoopvKWg)-- - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ End of canslim-digest V2 #2122 ****************************** To unsubscribe to canslim-digest, send an email to "majordomo@xmission.com" with "unsubscribe canslim-digest" in the body of the message. For information on digests or retrieving files and old messages send "help" to the same address. Do not use quotes in your message.