From: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com (canslim-digest) To: canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Subject: canslim-digest V2 #2138 Reply-To: canslim Sender: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Errors-To: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Precedence: bulk Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable X-No-Archive: yes canslim-digest Monday, February 18 2002 Volume 02 : Number 2138 In this issue: Re: [CANSLIM] Introduction: DuLaurence "Duke" Miller Re: [CANSLIM] Re. A Possible Signal To Unscrupulous Bookeeping Re: [CANSLIM] Belated Welcome Re: [CANSLIM] Re. A Possible Signal To Unscrupulous Bookeeping Re: [CANSLIM] Introduction: DuLaurence "Duke" Miller Re: Archery 101: was AW: [CANSLIM] Lack of Buy Candidates ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Date: Mon, 18 Feb 2002 10:36:04 -0500 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Introduction: DuLaurence "Duke" Miller Welcome to the group, Duke. I am also one of that very rare species, "native of Florida", as was my father. And I think Bill O'Neil is very forgiving of our past sins, as long as we recognize the right path to success. The tide will turn, in fact last time I checked, it turned every six hours. Everything is relative, even the stock markets. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net AIM: TexWorley - ----- Original Message ----- From: "Duke Miller" To: Sent: Monday, February 18, 2002 10:15 AM Subject: [CANSLIM] Introduction: DuLaurence "Duke" Miller > Greetings to all from Anna Maria Island, Florida, where this "born again" > CANSLIM investor is returning to the ranks after being sacked royally by a > completely greed-driven abandonment of WON for several years. Forgive me, > Bill! Now that my confession is out of the way.... > > Native of Florida. Semi-early-retired marketing executive (read: I consult > for food). Married five years to P&G marketing executive nearing > retirement, who, God bless her, figured a way to be based in Cincinnati and > live on this island. Tweaking "systems" for when the tide turns (it is going > to turn, isn't it?). First joined CANSLIM ranks early on when WON was > hawking subscriptions on the rubber-chicken circuit. Attended two of his > seminars. After reviewing some of your archives, I'm glad to be back...I > think! > > Duke Miller > dukemill@tampabay.rr.com > > > - > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. > > - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 18 Feb 2002 10:46:06 -0500 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Re. A Possible Signal To Unscrupulous Bookeeping Interesting point of view. Because I only do small and micro cap young companies, I am not used to getting dividends, so rarely think about them. But where I have bought a dividend bearing stock, I must admit the size of the dividend, while small, did tend to grow with earnings. Maybe just one more tool to put in the kit for further due diligence. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net AIM: TexWorley - ----- Original Message ----- From: To: Sent: Monday, February 18, 2002 10:05 AM Subject: [CANSLIM] Re. A Possible Signal To Unscrupulous Bookeeping > Canslimmers: > > I know not many (if any) high growth stocks have dividends, but this > item from James Glassman (in techcentralstation.com) might be useful in > identifying another Enronic-Bookeeping-Wonder (I wonder, appropos of this, > what Enron's cash-flow was?): > > "...Enron paid dividends all during the period when it now admits that it was > overstating earnings, but those payouts were curiously flat at a time when > the company's reported profits were soaring. For example, between 1997 and > 2000, earnings rose 69 percent but dividends rose just 9 percent. That could > have been a sign that something fishy was happening. A company might be able > to fake out analysts by booking today paper profits that might possibly occur > in the future. But dividends aren't entries on the ledger; they're real > money. A company that consistently raises its dividend is almost always a > well-managed company in a strong market niche...." > > jans > > - > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. > > - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 18 Feb 2002 09:52:31 -0600 From: "Katherine Malm" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Belated Welcome This is a multi-part message in MIME format. - ------=_NextPart_000_006D_01C1B861.FBB3FD20 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable Hi Gary, Probably not a single person here who hasn't had *exactly* the same = experience at one time or another. Welcome to the group :)))) One thing I discovered early in 2000 was that the great Bull had been = masking a whole raft of sloppy selling habits on my part. My first step = was to "get honest" about what I had and had not been doing by going = back and doing a fresh post analysis on several years' worth of trades. = The next thing I did was to write down a checklist of sell rules (which = I have continued to refine). Last step was to build into my daily = routine a task that forces me to step through each sell rule on each = position one by one like a pilot before take-off.* This has made a world = of difference to me. Katherine *OKAY, list....you know I lost focus and didn't do this mid-January and = you *know* what happened to MCAF!!! ----- Original Message -----=20 From: Gary A. Snyder=20 To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20 Sent: Monday, February 18, 2002 1:50 AM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Belated Welcome Major error in judgment in moment of confidence or greed. Had my eye = on this=20 stock because of the fundamentals( example profit margin 49%), best in = group=20 per IBD, earning estimates excellent, upward price movement on the = chart,=20 earning and sales increasing, profit margin decreasing from 50% to 46% = and I=20 put a little note to wait until after Q report given sell offs in this = market even on good reports. So report comes out- beat street by 7 = cents,=20 gives guidance of increased estimate for next quarter and year. I = read, I=20 like. Market opens stock price starts up I buy too much, stock ends = day down=20 about 3.5%. I can not believe- market wrong, I'm right- just a minor = sell=20 off. Belated news about unknown analyst (to me) downgrading the stock=20 because 8.8 million was changed from 90 day debt vehicle to 4 year = loan.=20 Very telling blow in retrospect. In other words company having trouble = getting paid on time. Oh did I say down 15% that next day? Now I go = into=20 lockup mode like rabbit sitting in middle of expressway. I do remember = Barrons article over weekend bringing up old news as they are wont to = do (I=20 had subscription to Barrons and hate that weekly even more now) = Trashing the=20 company was the last kick that brought ACRT down 45% in one day. So = here I=20 am: IBD ratings only a memory, down 55%. Barrons article packed the = big=20 punch but analysis very much more to the point. Like the rabbit I'm = thinking=20 about getting off the highway. Too early to learn from experience, = thing=20 that nags at me is I'm making the same mistakes over and over. I can = feel=20 fear but I can't tell if I am doing something greedy until after the = fact.=20 Oh by the way you will find me a very open and honest person. gas175k >From: "Tom Worley" >Reply-To: canslim@lists.xmission.com >To: >Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Belated Welcome >Date: Sun, 17 Feb 2002 12:14:48 -0500 > >Gary, dare I ask what you are doing in ACRT? Looks like the classic = falling >knife to me on the chart. > >I have been hit with unexplainable reversals lately, hopefully just a >symptom of this uncertain market. > >Tom Worley >stkguru@netside.net >AIM: TexWorley >----- Original Message ----- >From: "Gary A. Snyder" >To: >Sent: Sunday, February 17, 2002 11:24 AM >Subject: [CANSLIM] Belated Welcome > > > > > > > > Gang: > > Wow, thanks for the response. I am going to read and think about = these > > e-mails. I just entered this chat line and was getting a lot of >corrections > > because I was sending to majordomo. Also sent a welcome email to = him. >Course > > he don't give a darn, just gave me lot of error messages. > > As Won says stocks seem to run (as in go up) together. > > Don't some of these preachy tutorials in "Investor's Corner" give = you a >pain > > especially when the example does not qualify under WON teachings? = I=20 >still > > read it every day. he he. > > Im saving everything Tom Worsley says: 75% speaks for itself. > > Currently I am very humble having got hit by a freight train with = the >symbol > > ACRT. > > I think that no one approach works all the time. A system that = works in >this > > environment of trading in a range and sector rotation does not = work as >well > > as another approach in a bull market where strong industrial = groups stay > > high in the rating system for extended periods of time. Industrial = >groups > > strong in a bear market such as defensive groups like Funeral = Homes=20 >(talk > > about sick), food/meat products( would you believe it) tank when = the >market > > thinks the economy has turned the corner. > > I want to stay ahead of the curve. > > Hope I can add to the common knowledge in a meaningful way. Always = open=20 >to > > learn so have been reading the traffic the last week even though I >couldn't > > make contact. Till next time: gas175k > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > _________________________________________________________________ > > Chat with friends online, try MSN Messenger: = http://messenger.msn.com > > > > > > - > > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" > > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. > > > > > > > >- >-To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" >-In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or >-"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. _________________________________________________________________ Send and receive Hotmail on your mobile device: http://mobile.msn.com - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - ------=_NextPart_000_006D_01C1B861.FBB3FD20 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
Hi Gary,
 
Probably not a single person here who hasn't had *exactly* the same = experience at one time or another. Welcome to the group :))))
 
One thing I discovered early in 2000 was that the great Bull had = been=20 masking a whole raft of sloppy selling habits on my part. My first step = was to=20 "get honest" about what I had and had not been doing by going back and = doing a=20 fresh post analysis on several years' worth of trades. The next thing I = did was=20 to write down a checklist of sell rules (which I have continued to = refine). Last=20 step was to build into my daily routine a task that forces me to step = through=20 each sell rule on each position one by one like a pilot before = take-off.* This=20 has made a world of difference to me.
 
Katherine
 
*OKAY, list....you know I lost focus and didn't do this mid-January = and you=20 *know* what happened to MCAF!!!
----- Original Message -----
From:=20 Gary A.=20 Snyder
Sent: Monday, February 18, 2002 = 1:50=20 AM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Belated=20 Welcome





Major error in judgment in moment of = confidence=20 or greed. Had my eye on this
stock because of the fundamentals( = example=20 profit margin 49%), best in group
per IBD, earning estimates = excellent,=20 upward price movement on the chart,
earning and sales increasing, = profit=20 margin decreasing from 50% to 46% and I
put a little note to wait = until=20 after Q report given sell offs in this
market even on good = reports. So=20 report comes out- beat street by 7 cents,
gives guidance of = increased=20 estimate for next quarter and year. I read, I
like. Market opens = stock=20 price starts up I buy too much, stock ends day down
about 3.5%. I = can not=20 believe- market wrong, I'm right- just a minor sell
off. Belated = news=20 about unknown analyst (to me) downgrading the stock
because 8.8 = million=20 was changed from 90 day debt vehicle to 4 year loan.
Very telling = blow in=20 retrospect. In other words company having trouble
getting paid on = time. Oh=20 did I say down 15% that next day?  Now I go into
lockup mode = like=20 rabbit sitting in middle of expressway. I do remember
Barrons = article over=20 weekend bringing up old news as they are wont to do (I
had = subscription to=20 Barrons and hate that weekly even more now) Trashing the
company = was the=20 last kick that brought ACRT down 45% in one day. So here I
am: IBD = ratings=20 only a memory, down 55%. Barrons article packed the big
punch but = analysis=20 very much more to the point. Like the rabbit I'm thinking
about = getting=20 off the highway. Too early to learn from experience, thing
that = nags at me=20 is I'm making the same mistakes over and over. I can feel
fear but = I can't=20 tell if I am doing something greedy until after the fact.
Oh by = the way=20 you will find me a very open and honest person. =20 gas175k


>From: "Tom Worley" <stkguru@netside.net>
>Re= ply-To:=20 canslim@lists.xmission.com=
>To:=20 <canslim@lists.xmission.com= >
>Subject:=20 Re: [CANSLIM] Belated Welcome
>Date: Sun, 17 Feb 2002 12:14:48=20 -0500
>
>Gary, dare I ask what you are doing in ACRT? = Looks like=20 the classic falling
>knife to me on the chart.
>
>I = have=20 been hit with unexplainable reversals lately, hopefully just = a
>symptom=20 of this uncertain market.
>
>Tom=20 Worley
>stkguru@netside.net
>AIM: TexWorley
>----- = Original=20 Message -----
>From: "Gary A. Snyder" <gas175k@hotmail.com>
>To= :=20 <canslim@lists.xmission.com= >
>Sent:=20 Sunday, February 17, 2002 11:24 AM
>Subject: [CANSLIM] Belated=20 Welcome
>
>
> >
> >
> > = Gang:
>=20 > Wow, thanks for the response. I am going to read and think about=20 these
> > e-mails. I just entered this chat line and was = getting a=20 lot of
>corrections
> > because I was sending to = majordomo.=20 Also sent a welcome email to him.
>Course
> > he don't = give a=20 darn, just gave me lot of error messages.
> > As Won says = stocks seem=20 to run (as in go up) together.
> > Don't some of these = preachy=20 tutorials in "Investor's Corner" give you a
>pain
> >=20 especially when the example does not qualify under WON teachings? I=20
>still
> > read it every day. he he.
> > Im = saving=20 everything Tom Worsley says: 75% speaks for itself.
> > = Currently I=20 am very humble having got hit by a freight train with=20 the
>symbol
> > ACRT.
> > I think that no one = approach=20 works all the time. A system that works in
>this
> >=20 environment of trading in a range and sector rotation does not work=20 as
>well
> > as another approach in a bull market where = strong=20 industrial groups stay
> > high in the rating system for = extended=20 periods of time. Industrial
>groups
> > strong in a = bear=20 market such as defensive groups like Funeral Homes =
>(talk
> >=20 about sick), food/meat products( would you believe it) tank when=20 the
>market
> > thinks the economy has turned the=20 corner.
> >   I want to stay ahead of the = curve.
>=20 > Hope I can add to the common knowledge in a meaningful way. = Always open=20
>to
> > learn so have been reading the traffic the = last week=20 even though I
>couldn't
> > make contact. Till next = time:=20 gas175k
> >
> >
> >
> >
>=20 >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> = >
>=20 >
> >=20 = _________________________________________________________________
>= >=20 Chat with friends online, try MSN Messenger: http://messenger.msn.com
> = >
> >
> > -
> > -To = subscribe/unsubscribe, email=20 "majordomo@xmission.com"
>= ;=20 > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or
> >=20 -"unsubscribe canslim".  Do not use quotes in your email.
> = >
> >
>
>
>
>-
>-To=20 subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com"
>= ;-In=20 the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or
>-"unsubscribe=20 canslim".  Do not use quotes in your=20 = email.








_______________________________= __________________________________
Send=20 and receive Hotmail on your mobile device: http://mobile.msn.com


-
= - -To=20 subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com"
-In= the=20 email body, write "subscribe canslim" or
-"unsubscribe = canslim".  Do=20 not use quotes in your email. - ------=_NextPart_000_006D_01C1B861.FBB3FD20-- - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 18 Feb 2002 09:57:54 -0600 From: "Katherine Malm" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Re. A Possible Signal To Unscrupulous Bookeeping This is a multi-part message in MIME format. - ------=_NextPart_000_007E_01C1B862.BC6620C0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable A great observation on the dividends, jans.=20 My general take on CANSLIM has always been that we are more typically = buying young companies early in their growth. That means the largest = percentage of stocks we look at are not dividend paying entities because = they are plowing earnings back into the company to fund expansion. Katherine ----- Original Message -----=20 From: Tom Worley=20 To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20 Sent: Monday, February 18, 2002 9:46 AM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Re. A Possible Signal To Unscrupulous = Bookeeping Interesting point of view. Because I only do small and micro cap young companies, I am not used to getting dividends, so rarely think about = them. But where I have bought a dividend bearing stock, I must admit the = size of the dividend, while small, did tend to grow with earnings. Maybe just one more tool to put in the kit for further due diligence. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net AIM: TexWorley ----- Original Message ----- From: To: Sent: Monday, February 18, 2002 10:05 AM Subject: [CANSLIM] Re. A Possible Signal To Unscrupulous Bookeeping > Canslimmers: > > I know not many (if any) high growth stocks have dividends, but = this > item from James Glassman (in techcentralstation.com) might be useful = in > identifying another Enronic-Bookeeping-Wonder (I wonder, appropos of = this, > what Enron's cash-flow was?): > > "...Enron paid dividends all during the period when it now admits = that it was > overstating earnings, but those payouts were curiously flat at a = time when > the company's reported profits were soaring. For example, between = 1997 and > 2000, earnings rose 69 percent but dividends rose just 9 percent. = That could > have been a sign that something fishy was happening. A company might = be able > to fake out analysts by booking today paper profits that might = possibly occur > in the future. But dividends aren't entries on the ledger; they're = real > money. A company that consistently raises its dividend is almost = always a > well-managed company in a strong market niche...." > > jans - ------=_NextPart_000_007E_01C1B862.BC6620C0 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
A great observation on the dividends, jans.
 
My general take on CANSLIM has always been that we are more = typically=20 buying young companies early in their growth. That means the = largest=20 percentage of stocks we look at are not dividend paying entities because = they=20 are plowing earnings back into the company to fund expansion.
 
Katherine
----- Original Message -----
From:=20 Tom = Worley=20
Sent: Monday, February 18, 2002 = 9:46=20 AM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Re. A = Possible=20 Signal To Unscrupulous Bookeeping

Interesting point of view. Because I only do small and = micro=20 cap young
companies, I am not used to getting dividends, so rarely = think=20 about them.
But where I have bought a dividend bearing stock, I = must admit=20 the size of
the dividend, while small, did tend to grow with=20 earnings.

Maybe just one more tool to put in the kit for = further due=20 diligence.

Tom Worley
stkguru@netside.net
AIM:=20 TexWorley
----- Original Message -----
From: <JANSI1AUG1@aol.com>
To: = <canslim@lists.xmission.com= >
Sent:=20 Monday, February 18, 2002 10:05 AM
Subject: [CANSLIM] Re. A = Possible Signal=20 To Unscrupulous Bookeeping


>=20 Canslimmers:
>
>      I know not = many (if=20 any) high growth stocks have dividends, but this
> item from = James=20 Glassman (in techcentralstation.com) might be useful in
> = identifying=20 another Enronic-Bookeeping-Wonder (I wonder, appropos of this,
> = what=20 Enron's cash-flow was?):
>
> "...Enron paid dividends all = during=20 the period when it now admits that it
was
> overstating = earnings, but=20 those payouts were curiously flat at a time when
> the company's = reported profits were soaring. For example, between 1997 and
> = 2000,=20 earnings rose 69 percent but dividends rose just 9 percent.=20 That
could
> have been a sign that something fishy was = happening. A=20 company might be
able
> to fake out analysts by booking today = paper=20 profits that might possibly
occur
> in the future. But = dividends=20 aren't entries on the ledger; they're real
> money. A company = that=20 consistently raises its dividend is almost always a
> = well-managed=20 company in a strong market niche...."
>
>=20 jans
- ------=_NextPart_000_007E_01C1B862.BC6620C0-- - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 18 Feb 2002 10:36:51 -0600 From: "Katherine Malm" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Introduction: DuLaurence "Duke" Miller This is a multi-part message in MIME format. - ------=_NextPart_000_00AE_01C1B868.2CF2BE20 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable Hi Duke, Now that you are a "born again CANSLIMer" did you realize that shaving = your head and carrying around WON's HTMMIS (How to Make Money in = Stocks) at all times is condition of joining the list? Hah! *REALLY* = just kidding. Welcome, Katherine ----- Original Message -----=20 From: Duke Miller=20 To: canslim@xmission.com=20 Sent: Monday, February 18, 2002 9:15 AM Subject: [CANSLIM] Introduction: DuLaurence "Duke" Miller Greetings to all from Anna Maria Island, Florida, where this "born = again" CANSLIM investor is returning to the ranks after being sacked royally = by a completely greed-driven abandonment of WON for several years. Forgive = me, Bill! Now that my confession is out of the way.... Native of Florida. Semi-early-retired marketing executive (read: I = consult for food). Married five years to P&G marketing executive nearing retirement, who, God bless her, figured a way to be based in = Cincinnati and live on this island. Tweaking "systems" for when the tide turns (it is = going to turn, isn't it?). First joined CANSLIM ranks early on when WON was hawking subscriptions on the rubber-chicken circuit. Attended two of = his seminars. After reviewing some of your archives, I'm glad to be = back...I think! Duke Miller dukemill@tampabay.rr.com - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - ------=_NextPart_000_00AE_01C1B868.2CF2BE20 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
Hi Duke,
 
Now that you are a "born again CANSLIMer" did you realize that = shaving your=20 head and carrying around WON's  HTMMIS (How to Make Money in = Stocks)=20 at all times is condition of joining the list? Hah! *REALLY* just = kidding.
 
Welcome,
Katherine
----- Original Message -----
From:=20 Duke=20 Miller
Sent: Monday, February 18, 2002 = 9:15=20 AM
Subject: [CANSLIM] = Introduction:=20 DuLaurence "Duke" Miller

Greetings to all from Anna Maria Island, Florida, where = this=20 "born again"
CANSLIM investor is returning to the ranks after being = sacked=20 royally by a
completely greed-driven abandonment of WON for several = years.=20 Forgive me,
Bill!  Now that my confession is out of the=20 way....

Native of Florida.  Semi-early-retired marketing = executive=20 (read: I consult
for food).  Married five years to P&G = marketing=20 executive nearing
retirement, who, God bless her, figured a way to = be based=20 in Cincinnati and
live on this island. Tweaking "systems" for when = the tide=20 turns (it is going
to turn, isn't it?).  First joined CANSLIM = ranks=20 early on when WON was
hawking subscriptions on the rubber-chicken=20 circuit.  Attended two of his
seminars.  After reviewing = some of=20 your archives, I'm glad to be back...I
think!

Duke = Miller
dukemill@tampabay.rr.com
=

-
-To=20 subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com"
-In= the=20 email body, write "subscribe canslim" or
-"unsubscribe = canslim".  Do=20 not use quotes in your email. - ------=_NextPart_000_00AE_01C1B868.2CF2BE20-- - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 18 Feb 2002 10:36:28 -0600 From: "Norman" Subject: Re: Archery 101: was AW: [CANSLIM] Lack of Buy Candidates This is a multi-part message in MIME format. - ------=_NextPart_000_00C7_01C1B868.1F8B7FB0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable There's absolutely no way to win when such things are revealed. = Either people believe that you are boasting, not telling the truth, that = your earnings are paltry by comparison to their own, etc. etc. Katherine, I like your reasoning here. It is exactly what we teach in our 4H = archery program for exactly the same reason - comparisons will be made. = In our archery program coaches NEVER shoot with the kids, NEVER. The = reasoning is that some of the kids will out-shoot us coaches and so may = think they do not have to listen to our advice, and some will be = discouraged by the skill level of the coaches. I guess we are all = "coaches" in this forum, and I for one have been discouraged on more = than 1 occasion by the results of others here Like we tell the kids, "shoot the good shot" and everything else will = take care of itself. Translated, "do your best to follow all the rules = every time". Anyway, I agree with your logic. Sorry for the OT comparison; it just = jumped out at me :-) Norm ----- Original Message -----=20 From: Katherine Malm=20 To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20 Sent: Sunday, February 17, 2002 9:31 PM Subject: Re: AW: [CANSLIM] Lack of Buy Candidates Hi David, Thanks for the kind words and I'd like to speak up in Tom's defense. = He is square and straightforward about what he does at all times. He = learned from WON early in his career and he has learned to mold CANSLIM = to his personal preferences. I can't say that I agree with everything = Tom does only in the sense that it is not "right for me." But that is = far different than judging whether or not it is successful and/or "right = for him." With respect to telling returns, I think this is a *very* personal = issue. I, for example, look upon returns and absolutely *anything* to do = with what positions I am currently holding, what stocks I am looking at, = what % winners vs. losers, etc. as extremely personal. I put it right up = there with a question like "what's your salary" or "what's your net = worth." I was recently hammered by several folks when I made a = presentation in Dallas and would not reveal such things. I figure it's = my business and mine alone. There's absolutely no way to win when such = things are revealed. Either people believe that you are boasting, not = telling the truth, that your earnings are paltry by comparison to their = own, etc. etc. On the other hand, if someone reveals their returns, I = figure that's their business as well. I view this as a personal choice = and make no judgments either way. It's a tough market out there. In the = end, I find it's far more important at the end of the day to be able to = ask myself "did I do everything possible to earn the best returns that = I am able." To me, if I can answer "yes" to that question, then I have = had a successful day. I applaud Tom's returns, but I applaud his = willingness to admit that his returns in '99 would have been more = substantial if he'd focused on his portfolio with the same intensity = that he did in '01. *That's* the message I take away from his statement. --Katherine While we're on the subject of returns, here's something that I wrote = during a discussion over this very issue: Returns.What Does That Mean? I never make assumptions about the numbers people give when they = specify returns. Here are some examples as to why. For all examples I'll = use a simple total portfolio number of $100K at the beginning of the = year. All percentages and dollar amounts are used only for the purpose = of demonstration. (1) Invested vs. Investable monies: - Statement: I made 50% last year.=20 - Person A makes 50% on *invested* monies. Lets say A invests $10K = and earns 50%. Total ending value =3D $15K. But what about the $90K that = wasn't invested? Let's say it made 5% in bonds and/or cash. That means = it's now worth $94,500. Total ending portfolio =3D $109,500. Total = compounded returns for the year =3D 0.095%. That's less than 1%. = Certainly doesn't make the same statement as "I made 50%." - Person B makes 50% on *investable* monies. B invests $50K in = bonds and/or cash. Say it earns 5%. Ending value =3D $52,500. The = remaining is invested and earns enough so that the total portfolio earns = 50%. That means the ending portfolio is $150,000. Invested monies = accounted for $97,500 of this ending value. This means that B turned = $50K into $97.5K by the end of the year through active investing. Total = returns on *invested* monies =3D 95%.=20 - Part of effective money management and risk control is to = determine how much of your investable dollars you are willing to risk. = Your ability to consistently earn a return on invested dollars will = allow you to increase the percentage of investable dollars. Don't assume = that every person who tells you they earned 50% is able to do this = consistently. And certainly don't assume that all of their investable = dollars earned 50%. Also keep in mind that there are actually people who = would rather understate their returns than overstate them. (2) Risk - Statement: I earned 50% with this system. - Person A earns 50% on invested dollars. Maximum drawdown on = total portfolio -50%. Person A also margined 100% of their account to = generate these returns. The average beta for the portfolio was 3 times = the market average. - Person B earns 50% on invested dollars. Maximum drawdown -10%. = They did not margin and the average beta of the portfolio was 1.5 times = the market average. This person by far earned the higher risk adjusted = return. - A good trader is able to consistently generate returns with the = least amount of risk. (3) Open positions at year's end - Statement: I earned 50% last year. - Person A had 5 open positions on 12/31 that accounted for = 15% of that gain. On January 15th of the following year, the market dive = bombed and they were forced to sell at a loss. - Person B had 5 open positions on 12/31 that accounted for = 15% of potential gains. Until these gains are monetized, they do not = include them in the total for the year. - Intermediate term investors will often carry a position for = several weeks to several months. Until you sell the position (monetize = it), the gains are fairy dust. The bank might be willing to lend you = money against the value of your assets, but these dollars are not "real" = until they are in your pocket. If you have any doubts, go ask Barry = Ebbers of Worldcom why he had to sell stock to satisfy the bank. (4) Average vs Compounded returns - Statement: I earn 50% on average. - Person A earned 200% one year and (-100%) the next. Average = return is (200-100)/2 =3D 50%. Sound impressive? They're flat broke. - Person B earned an average 50% compounded return over the last 5 = years. That means that if they started with $100K year one, they now = have $100K*(1.50)^5 =3D $759,375. (Even after 2 years, they have = $225,000) (5) Annualized vs Actual - Statement: I earned 50% on that trade. - Person A made an investment during the year that earned = 12.5% in 2 weeks. They have annualized this as 12.5% * (10days/250days) = =3D 50%. - Person B made an investment that returned 50% in two months. = They have an annualized return on this investment of approximately 50% * = (40days/250days) =3D 800% (6) Personal Ownership v. Professional Management - Statement: I earned 50% last year. - Person A has 10% of their money in an account that they manage = personally. The remaining 90% is with a money manger. They earned 50% on = only 10% of their money. - Person B takes responsibility for 100% of their investable = assets. They earned 50% on 100% of those investable assets. (7) Gross vs. Net Returns - Statement: I earned 50% last year. - Person A made 50% *gross* returns on investable assets. = Their ending portfolio was $150,000. This does not include the $2K they = spent purchasing various trading systems nor commissions paid during the = year to generate these returns. A treats their investments like a hobby = and spends money freely to find "a better system." - Person B made 50% *net* returns on investable assets. They = spent $2K in commissions; subscriptions to business and investing = magazines, newspapers and tools; investing books; investing seminars and = the associated costs to attend these seminars. B treats their = investments like a business and evaluates all tools and expenditures as = to how they generate a return on investment. (8) Taxable vs Tax Deferred Account/Before vs After Tax - Statement: I earned 50% last year. - Person A earned 50% in their tax deferred IRA. - Person B earned 50% *after taxes* in their taxable account. Conclusion: Numbers alone don't tell you a darned thing. --Katherine ----- Original Message -----=20 From: David Squires=20 To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20 Sent: Sunday, February 17, 2002 8:45 PM Subject: Re: AW: [CANSLIM] Lack of Buy Candidates >>Your comments about EPIQ as a "big winner" in the portfolio remind = me of comments I often hear from others when we have discussions about = the big winners in our portfolios. On one hand, it really bugs me to = hear people say "well, yeah, of course you had great returns, you had = XXXX an YYYY....you were just lucky." Excuse me? I found XXXX and YYYY = using the same methodical diligence I apply to all my buys. The = difference is, these guys never triggered sell rules like all the = others. Last Fall, I listened to a presentation by Kevin Marder, a hedge = fund manager and a CANSLIM-style investor. He said the same thing that = I've heard from other successful investors. "At the end of each year I = give my accountant a list of my trades for tax purposes. On that list = are a bunch of trades with very small losses. Also on that list are some = really big gains that were responsible for most of my returns for the = year. This happens every year without exception."<< Katherine, You are a true gem...my hat is off to you and eye open to everything = you write...from my experience....you indeed "get it". However, I'm not = so sure Tom should be cast in the light of Kevin Marder. What's the = point of telling everyone what you netted last year??......it's a = totally unverifiable assertion and only fodder for ones online ego. = Spare me. It still amazes me the proclaimed master of the CANSLIM = list,...."routinely violates CANSLIM rules" and everyone just sits = there. I guess everyone's numb from a 2 year bear raid. DSquires ----- Original Message -----=20 From: Katherine Malm=20 To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20 Sent: Sunday, February 17, 2002 10:57 AM Subject: Re: AW: [CANSLIM] Lack of Buy Candidates Hi Tom, Your comments about EPIQ as a "big winner" in the portfolio remind = me of comments I often hear from others when we have discussions about = the big winners in our portfolios. On one hand, it really bugs me to = hear people say "well, yeah, of course you had great returns, you had = XXXX an YYYY....you were just lucky." Excuse me? I found XXXX and YYYY = using the same methodical diligence I apply to all my buys. The = difference is, these guys never triggered sell rules like all the = others. Last Fall, I listened to a presentation by Kevin Marder, a hedge = fund manager and a CANSLIM-style investor. He said the same thing that = I've heard from other successful investors. "At the end of each year I = give my accountant a list of my trades for tax purposes. On that list = are a bunch of trades with very small losses. Also on that list are some = really big gains that were responsible for most of my returns for the = year. This happens every year without exception." On the other hand, a comment such as "you were just lucky" makes = me smile and nod in agreement, because I define luck as "being prepared = when the opportunity arises and being willing to seize it." Yes, big = winners are about luck in that sense. Finally, one of my favorite quotes = and one that always stays in view at my desk: "Opportunities are usually disguised as hard work, so most people = don't recognize them." --Anne Landers Here's to "big winners" and your continued "good luck"! Cheers, Katherine ----- Original Message -----=20 From: Tom Worley=20 To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20 Sent: Saturday, February 16, 2002 3:34 PM Subject: Re: AW: [CANSLIM] Lack of Buy Candidates Your memory is pretty good, altho I consider buying small caps = as much closer to classic CANSLIM rules for "S" than IBD or WON = currently pushes. I wasn't losing money during the roaring bulls, just not making = what I could. But that was not the fault of my application of CANSLIM, = it was a direct consequence of total neglect of my portfolio due = dedication and hours spent on my day job. But even with total neglect, I still = managed about 12% or so without trading, so at least better than a money market. You are correct also that EPIQ was a major contributor to my = profits in 2001, and I expect it to continue contributing in 2002. But I = finished the year with every stock I owned up for the year, and with minimal = trading. I only bought two new ones in 2001, the rest I had owned from = prior years. So far in 2002, I have added 6 new ones, and sold one (merger = announced). Altho three of the new ones are presently down, I am still up a little = overall. And having fun. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net AIM: TexWorley ----- Original Message ----- From: "esetser" To: Sent: Saturday, February 16, 2002 11:01 AM Subject: Re: AW: [CANSLIM] Lack of Buy Candidates Be careful here, Tom has his own special breed of CANSLIM, and = it seems that his returns have NOT been a good indicator of average = returns in the group. Unless I'm mistaken, Tom was losing money or breaking = even back in the roaring bull, so maybe it was just his turn!! Tom does at least the following different from my approach (just = from memory): 1 - Microcaps only (below the minimum recommended by WON) (S?) 2 - Buys in the base before the breakout (Needs to because of 1) 3 - Doesn't use Industry Group Strength as a leader/laggard = indicator (I) 4 - Buys in all markets (M) >From my perspective, he violates the normal rules for S, I, and = M. However, Tom does admit to this, and doesn't even generally post = his selections due to these variations. Given the differences, I think it should be expected that Tom's = performance over a given year will vary from many of us. (And there is that = one stock that has appreciated several times his original investment that = is impacting the results too!) One other note. From my perspective, Tom's value to the group = is his willingness to take the time to review most anyone's suggestions = and selections and give great detail in his responses. His general = approach may not follow CANSLIM exactly, but his postings to the group do = following WON quite closely. He is our master educator on the technique, = and gives a lot of time and effort to the group. FWIW, I ended up 2001 with about a 13% loss and am down about 6% = more this year so far. Presently, I am only 25% invested with one = position. I am not really responding on the group much, since I do not feel I = have the experience to short, and I am waiting for "M" to clear up before = new purchases. At 11:36 AM 2/16/02 +0100, you wrote: >I think Tom bend only one rule --> stay out of the market if = there is a >downtrend in the overall market. > >But as I said, if you choose small caps and or IGs that are = going up, no >problem making money on the long side. >Just look on the builders or on the gold stocks latley ... > >BUT NEVER, NEVER buy stocks when the market and the IG is down. >I have not seen one example where a member of the group does = not break down >then (besides its a small cap) as well. > >Some IGs are just setting up a bull market for its members no = matter what >the market is doing. > >> -----Urspr=FCngliche Nachricht----- >> Von: Tom Worley [SMTP:stkguru@netside.net] >> Gesendet am: Saturday, February 16, 2002 6:19 AM >> An: canslim@lists.xmission.com >> Betreff: Re: [CANSLIM] Lack of Buy Candidates >> >> While I routinely violate CANSLIM rules, nonetheless my = entire process is >heavily based in CANSLIM. And I netted 76% for the full year, = so yeah, I >made a net profit. >> >> Tom Worley >> stkguru@netside.net >> AIM: TexWorley >> ----- Original Message ----- >> From: David Squires >> To: canslim@lists.xmission.com >> Sent: Saturday, February 16, 2002 12:11 AM >> Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Lack of Buy Candidates >> >> >> haven't shorted in years, fully invested year round, made = lots of $$ >last year, and profitable so far this year (including my fully = margined >account). >> >> >>fully invested year round, made lots of $$ last year<< >> >> You were fully invested last year long and made a net = profit? You >better call George Soros! BTW, is this even remotely CANSLIM. >> >> DSquires >> ----- Original Message ----- >> From: Tom Worley >> To: canslim@lists.xmission.com >> Sent: Friday, February 15, 2002 10:47 PM >> Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Lack of Buy Candidates >> >> >> haven't shorted in years, fully invested year round, made = lots of $$ >last year, and profitable so far this year (including my fully = margined >account). >> >> Tom Worley >> stkguru@netside.net >> AIM: TexWorley >> ----- Original Message ----- >> From: Dan Forant >> To: canslim@lists.xmission.com >> Sent: Friday, February 15, 2002 8:03 PM >> Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Lack of Buy Candidates >> >> >> Of course it's absurd. If anyone's been in the market = for the past >year and hasn't shorted and made $$, they are either very lucky = or far >better than the average investor. There was no shortage of = stocks to short >in TC2000 and candlesticks. >> >> L8ter >> DanF >> ----- Original Message ----- >> From: Ian >> To: canslim@lists.xmission.com >> Sent: Friday, February 15, 2002 11:13 AM >> Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Lack of Buy Candidates >> >> >> I find it almost absurd that WON discourages = shorting. Almost all >of WON's ideas appear to have originated with Jesse Livermore, = who made the >bulk of his money on the short side. The rules for selling a = big CANSLIM >winner make for perfect short candidates. Although selling a = failed >breakout as it returns into its base is NOT typically a good = short >candidate. JMHO. >> >> Ian >> >> >> >> ----- Original Message ----- >> From: Rob Miller >> To: canslim@lists.xmission.com >> Sent: Friday, February 15, 2002 6:40 AM >> Subject: [CANSLIM] Lack of Buy Candidates >> >> >> Even if we have a FTD from here, I see few stocks = worth buying. > However, my short list is overflowing. The only moderately = attractive >stocks I see on the long side are those already in an uptrend = that are >riding their lower channel. >> >> Is shorting considered off limits for this list? I = know that >WON discourages it, but he also claimed to make good money from = shorts in >HTMMIS. As I understand it, he discourages it as a medium for = the masses, >nor necessarily for everyone. >> >> Rob >> << Datei: ATT00014.htm >> - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - ------=_NextPart_000_00C7_01C1B868.1F8B7FB0 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
<snip>There's absolutely no way to win = when such=20 things are revealed. Either people believe that you are boasting, not = telling=20 the truth, that your earnings are paltry by comparison to their own, = etc.=20 etc.<snip>
 
Katherine,
 
I like your reasoning here.  It is exactly what we teach in = our 4H=20 archery program for exactly the same reason - comparisons will be = made.  In=20 our archery program coaches NEVER shoot with the kids, NEVER.  The=20 reasoning is that some of the kids will out-shoot us coaches and so may = think=20 they do not have to listen to our advice, and some will be discouraged = by the=20 skill level of the coaches.  I guess we are all "coaches" in this = forum,=20 and I for one have been discouraged on more than 1 occasion by the = results of=20 others here <G>
 
Like we tell the kids, "shoot the good shot" and everything else = will take=20 care of itself.  Translated, "do your best to follow all the rules = every=20 time".
 
Anyway, I agree with your logic.  Sorry for the OT comparison; = it just=20 jumped out at me :-)
 
Norm
----- Original Message -----
From:=20 Katherine=20 Malm
Sent: Sunday, February 17, 2002 = 9:31=20 PM
Subject: Re: AW: [CANSLIM] Lack = of Buy=20 Candidates

Hi David,
 
Thanks for the kind words and I'd like to speak up in Tom's = defense. He=20 is square and straightforward about what he does at all times. He = learned from=20 WON early in his career and he has learned to mold CANSLIM to his = personal=20 preferences. I can't say that I agree with everything Tom does only in = the=20 sense that it is not "right for me." But that is far different than = judging=20 whether or not it is successful and/or "right for him."
 
With respect to telling returns, I think this is a *very* = personal issue.=20 I, for example, look upon returns and absolutely *anything* to do with = what=20 positions I am currently holding, what stocks I am looking at, what % = winners=20 vs. losers, etc. as extremely personal. I put it right up there with a = question like "what's your salary" or "what's your net worth." I was = recently=20 hammered by several folks when I made a presentation in Dallas and = would not=20 reveal such things. I figure it's my business and mine alone. There's=20 absolutely no way to win when such things are revealed. Either people = believe=20 that you are boasting, not telling the truth, that your earnings are = paltry by=20 comparison to their own, etc. etc. On the other hand, if someone = reveals their=20 returns, I figure that's their business as well. I view this as a = personal=20 choice and make no judgments either way. It's a tough market out = there. In the=20 end, I find it's far more important at the end of the day to be able = to ask=20 myself  "did I do everything possible to earn the best returns = that I am=20 able." To me, if I can answer "yes" to that question, then I have had = a=20 successful day. I applaud Tom's returns, but I applaud his willingness = to=20 admit that his returns in '99 would have been more substantial if he'd = focused=20 on his portfolio with the same intensity that he did in '01. *That's* = the=20 message I take away from his statement.
 
--Katherine
 
While we're on the subject of returns, here's something that I = wrote=20 during a discussion over this very issue:

Returns…What Does That=20 Mean?

I never make assumptions about the numbers people = give when=20 they specify returns. Here are some examples as to why. For all = examples I'll=20 use a simple total portfolio number of $100K at the beginning of the = year. All=20 percentages and dollar amounts are used only for the purpose of=20 demonstration.

(1) Invested vs. Investable monies:

-           =20 Statement: I made 50% last year.

-    =20 Person A makes 50% on *invested* monies. Lets say A invests = $10K and=20 earns 50%. Total ending value =3D $15K. But what about the $90K that = wasn't=20 invested? Let's say it made 5% in bonds and/or cash. That means it's = now worth=20 $94,500. Total ending portfolio =3D $109,500. Total compounded returns = for the=20 year =3D 0.095%. That's less than 1%. Certainly doesn't make the same = statement=20 as "I made 50%."

-    =20 Person B makes 50% on *investable* monies. B invests $50K in = bonds=20 and/or cash. Say it earns 5%. Ending value =3D $52,500. The remaining = is=20 invested and earns enough so that the total portfolio earns 50%. That = means=20 the ending portfolio is $150,000. Invested monies accounted for = $97,500 of=20 this ending value. This means that B turned $50K into $97.5K by the = end of the=20 year through active investing. Total returns on *invested* monies =3D=20 95%. 

-    =20 Part of effective money management and risk control is to = determine how=20 much of your investable dollars you are willing to risk. Your ability = to=20 consistently earn a return on invested dollars will allow you to = increase=20 the percentage of investable dollars. Don't assume that every person = who tells=20 you they earned 50% is able to do this consistently. And certainly = don't=20 assume that all of their investable dollars earned 50%. Also keep in = mind that=20 there are actually people who would rather understate their returns = than=20 overstate them.

(2) Risk

-           =20 Statement: I earned 50% with this system.

-    =20 Person A earns 50% on invested dollars. Maximum drawdown on = total=20 portfolio -50%. Person A also margined 100% of their account to = generate these=20 returns. The average beta for the portfolio was 3 times the market=20 average.

-    =20 Person B earns 50% on invested dollars. Maximum drawdown -10%. = They did=20 not margin and the average beta of the portfolio was 1.5 times the = market=20 average. This person by far earned the higher risk adjusted = return.

-    =20 A good trader is able to consistently generate returns with the = least=20 amount of risk.

(3) Open positions at year's end

 -        =20 Statement: I earned 50% last year.

-        =20 Person A had 5 open positions on 12/31 that accounted for 15% = of that=20 gain. On January 15th of the following year, the market = dive bombed=20 and they were forced to sell at a loss.

-        =20 Person B had 5 open positions on 12/31 that accounted for 15% = of=20 potential gains. Until these gains are monetized, they do not include = them in=20 the total for the year.

-        =20 Intermediate term investors will often carry a position for = several=20 weeks to several months. Until you sell the position (monetize it), = the gains=20 are fairy dust. The bank might be willing to lend you money against = the value=20 of your assets, but these dollars are not “real” until = they are in your=20 pocket. If you have any doubts, go ask Barry Ebbers of Worldcom why he = had to=20 sell stock to satisfy the bank.

(4) Average vs Compounded returns

-           =20 Statement: I earn 50% on average.

-    =20 Person A earned 200% one year and (-100%) the next. Average = return is=20 (200-100)/2 =3D 50%. Sound impressive? They're flat broke.

-    =20 Person B earned an average 50% compounded return over the last = 5 years.=20 That means that if they started with $100K year one, they now have=20 $100K*(1.50)^5 =3D $759,375. (Even after 2 years, they have = $225,000)

(5) Annualized vs Actual

 -        =20 Statement: I earned 50% on that trade.

-        =20 Person A made an investment during the year that earned 12.5% = in 2=20 weeks. They have annualized this as 12.5% * (10days/250days) =3D = 50%.

-        =20 Person B made an investment that returned 50% in two months. = They have=20 an annualized return on this investment of approximately 50% *=20 (40days/250days) =3D 800%

(6) Personal Ownership v. Professional = Management

-           =20 Statement: I earned 50% last year.

-    =20 Person A has 10% of their money in an account that they manage=20 personally. The remaining 90% is with a money manger. They earned 50% = on only=20 10% of their money.

-    =20 Person B takes responsibility for 100% of their investable = assets. They=20 earned 50% on 100% of those investable assets.

(7) Gross vs. Net Returns

-        =20 Statement: I earned 50% last year.

-        =20 Person A made 50% *gross* returns on investable assets. = Their=20 ending portfolio was $150,000. This does not include the $2K they = spent=20 purchasing various trading systems nor commissions paid during the = year to=20 generate these returns. A treats their investments like a hobby and = spends=20 money freely to find “a better system.”

-        =20 Person B made 50% *net* returns on investable assets. = They spent=20 $2K in commissions; subscriptions to business and investing magazines, = newspapers and tools; investing books; investing seminars and the = associated=20 costs to attend these seminars. B treats their investments like a = business and=20 evaluates all tools and expenditures as to how they generate a return = on=20 investment.

(8) Taxable vs Tax Deferred Account/Before vs = After Tax

-        =20 Statement: I earned 50% last year.

-        =20 Person A earned 50% in their tax deferred IRA.

-   =20 Person B earned 50% *after taxes* in their taxable=20 account.
 
Conclusion:=20 Numbers alone don't tell you a darned thing.
 
--Katherine
 
----- Original Message -----
From:=20 David=20 Squires
Sent: Sunday, February 17, = 2002 8:45=20 PM
Subject: Re: AW: [CANSLIM] = Lack of Buy=20 Candidates

>>Your comments about EPIQ as a "big winner" in the = portfolio=20 remind me of comments I often hear from others when we have = discussions=20 about the big winners in our portfolios. On one hand, it = really bugs me=20 to hear people say "well, yeah, of course you had great returns, you = had=20 XXXX an YYYY....you were just lucky." Excuse me? I found XXXX and = YYYY using=20 the same methodical diligence I apply to all my buys. The difference = is,=20 these guys never triggered sell rules like all the others. Last = Fall, I=20 listened to a presentation by Kevin Marder, a hedge fund manager and = a=20 CANSLIM-style investor. He said the same thing that I've heard from = other=20 successful investors. "At the end of each year I give my accountant = a list=20 of my trades for tax purposes. On that list are a bunch of trades = with very=20 small losses. Also on that list are some really big gains that were=20 responsible for most of my returns for the year. This happens every = year=20 without exception."<<
 
Katherine,
 
You are a true gem...my hat is off to you and eye open to = everything=20 you write...from my experience....you indeed "get it". However, I'm = not so=20 sure Tom should be cast in the light of Kevin Marder. What's the = point of=20 telling everyone what you netted last year??......it's a totally=20 unverifiable assertion and only fodder for ones online ego. Spare = me. It=20 still amazes me the proclaimed master of the CANSLIM = list,...."routinely=20 violates CANSLIM rules" and everyone just sits there. I guess = everyone's=20 numb from a 2 year bear raid.
 
DSquires
 
----- Original Message ----- =
From:=20 Katherine=20 Malm
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com= =20
Sent: Sunday, February 17, = 2002 10:57=20 AM
Subject: Re: AW: [CANSLIM] = Lack of=20 Buy Candidates

Hi Tom,
 
Your comments about EPIQ as a "big winner" in the portfolio = remind me=20 of comments I often hear from others when we have discussions = about the=20 big winners in our portfolios. On one hand, it really bugs me = to hear=20 people say "well, yeah, of course you had great returns, you had = XXXX an=20 YYYY....you were just lucky." Excuse me? I found XXXX and YYYY = using the=20 same methodical diligence I apply to all my buys. The difference = is, these=20 guys never triggered sell rules like all the others. Last Fall, I = listened=20 to a presentation by Kevin Marder, a hedge fund manager and a=20 CANSLIM-style investor. He said the same thing that I've heard = from other=20 successful investors. "At the end of each year I give my = accountant a list=20 of my trades for tax purposes. On that list are a bunch of trades = with=20 very small losses. Also on that list are some really big gains = that were=20 responsible for most of my returns for the year. This happens = every year=20 without exception."
 
On the other hand, a comment such as "you were just lucky" = makes me=20 smile and nod in agreement, because I define luck as "being = prepared when=20 the opportunity arises and being willing to seize it." Yes, big = winners=20 are about luck in that sense. Finally, one of my favorite quotes = and one=20 that always stays in view at my desk:
 
"Opportunities are usually disguised as hard work, so most = people=20 don't recognize them." --Anne Landers
 
Here's to "big winners" and your continued "good luck"!
 
Cheers,
Katherine
----- Original Message ----- =
From:=20 Tom=20 Worley
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com= =20
Sent: Saturday, February = 16, 2002=20 3:34 PM
Subject: Re: AW: = [CANSLIM] Lack of=20 Buy Candidates

Your memory is pretty good, altho I consider = buying small=20 caps as much
closer to classic CANSLIM rules for "S" than IBD = or WON=20 currently pushes.

I wasn't losing money during the = roaring bulls,=20 just not making what I
could. But that was not the fault of = my=20 application of CANSLIM, it was a
direct consequence of total = neglect=20 of my portfolio due dedication and hours
spent on my day job. = But=20 even with total neglect, I still managed about 12%
or so = without=20 trading, so at least better than a money market.

You are = correct=20 also that EPIQ was a major contributor to my profits in
2001, = and I=20 expect it to continue contributing in 2002. But I finished = the
year=20 with every stock I owned up for the year, and with minimal = trading.=20 I
only bought two new ones in 2001, the rest I had owned from = prior=20 years. So
far in 2002, I have added 6 new ones, and sold one = (merger=20 announced). Altho
three of the new ones are presently down, I = am=20 still up a little overall.
And having fun.

Tom = Worley
stkguru@netside.net
AIM:=20 TexWorley
----- Original Message -----
From: "esetser" = <esetser@covad.net>
To: = <canslim@lists.xmission.com= >
Sent:=20 Saturday, February 16, 2002 11:01 AM
Subject: Re: AW: = [CANSLIM] Lack=20 of Buy Candidates


Be careful here, Tom has his own = special=20 breed of CANSLIM, and it seems
that his returns have NOT been = a good=20 indicator of average returns in the
group.  Unless I'm = mistaken,=20 Tom was losing money or breaking even back in
the roaring = bull, so=20 maybe it was just his turn!!

Tom does at least the = following=20 different from my approach (just from
memory):

1 - = Microcaps=20 only (below the minimum recommended by WON) (S?)
2 - Buys in = the base=20 before the breakout (Needs to because of 1)
3 - Doesn't use = Industry=20 Group Strength as a leader/laggard indicator (I)
4 - Buys in = all=20 markets (M)

>From my perspective, he violates the = normal rules=20 for S, I, and M.
However, Tom does admit to this, and doesn't = even=20 generally post his
selections due to these = variations.

Given=20 the differences, I think it should be expected that Tom's=20 performance
over a given year will vary from many of = us.  (And=20 there is that one stock
that has appreciated several times = his=20 original investment that is
impacting the results = too!)

One=20 other note.  From my perspective, Tom's value to the group = is=20 his
willingness to take the time to review most anyone's = suggestions=20 and
selections and give great detail in his responses.  = His=20 general approach
may not follow CANSLIM exactly, but his = postings to=20 the group do following
WON quite closely.  He is our = master=20 educator on the technique, and gives a
lot of time and effort = to the=20 group.

FWIW, I ended up 2001 with about a 13% loss and am = down=20 about 6% more this
year so far.  Presently, I am only = 25%=20 invested with one position.   I am
not really = responding on=20 the group much, since I do not feel I have the
experience to = short,=20 and I am waiting for "M" to clear up before=20 new
purchases.




At 11:36 AM 2/16/02 +0100, = you=20 wrote:
>I think Tom bend only one rule --> stay out of = the=20 market if there is a
>downtrend in the overall=20 market.
>
>But as I said, if you choose small caps = and or=20 IGs that are going up, no
>problem making money on the = long=20 side.
>Just look on the builders or on the gold stocks = latley=20 ...
>
>BUT NEVER, NEVER buy stocks when the market = and the=20 IG is down.
>I have not seen one example where a member of = the=20 group does not break down
>then (besides its a small cap) = as=20 well.
>
>Some IGs are just setting up a bull market = for its=20 members no matter what
>the market is = doing.
>
>>=20 -----Urspr=FCngliche Nachricht-----
>> Von: Tom Worley=20 [SMTP:stkguru@netside.net]
>> Gesendet am: Saturday, = February=20 16, 2002 6:19 AM
>> An: canslim@lists.xmission.com=
>>=20 Betreff: Re: [CANSLIM] Lack of Buy = Candidates
>>
>>=20 While I routinely violate CANSLIM rules, nonetheless my entire = process=20 is
>heavily based in CANSLIM. And I netted 76% for the = full year,=20 so yeah, I
>made a net profit.
>>
>> Tom = Worley
>> stkguru@netside.net
>>=20 AIM: TexWorley
>>   ----- Original Message=20 -----
>>   From: David=20 Squires
>>   To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=
>>  =20 Sent: Saturday, February 16, 2002 12:11 = AM
>>  =20 Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Lack of Buy=20 Candidates
>>
>>
>>   = haven't=20 shorted in years, fully invested year round, made lots of = $$
>last=20 year, and profitable so far this year (including my fully=20 margined
>account).
>>
>>  =20 >>fully invested year round, made lots of $$ last=20 year<<
>>
>>   You were fully = invested=20 last year long and made a net profit? You
>better call = George=20 Soros! BTW, is this even remotely=20 CANSLIM.
>>
>>  =20 DSquires
>>     ----- Original = Message=20 -----
>>     From: Tom=20 Worley
>>     To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=
>>    =20 Sent: Friday, February 15, 2002 10:47=20 PM
>>     Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] = Lack of=20 Buy=20 = Candidates
>>
>>
>>    =20 haven't shorted in years, fully invested year round, made lots = of=20 $$
>last year, and profitable so far this year (including = my fully=20 = margined
>account).
>>
>>    = =20 Tom Worley
>>     stkguru@netside.net
>>&n= bsp;   =20 AIM: TexWorley
>>       = - -----=20 Original Message = - -----
>>      =20 From: Dan Forant
>>       = To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=
>>      =20 Sent: Friday, February 15, 2002 8:03=20 PM
>>       Subject: Re:=20 [CANSLIM] Lack of Buy=20 = Candidates
>>
>>
>>    &nb= sp; =20 Of course it's absurd. If anyone's been in the market for the=20 past
>year and hasn't shorted and made $$, they are either = very=20 lucky or far
>better than the average investor. There was = no=20 shortage of stocks to short
>in TC2000 and=20 = candlesticks.
>>
>>      = =20 L8ter
>>      =20 DanF
>>         = - -----=20 Original Message=20 = - -----
>>         From:=20 Ian
>>         = To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=
>>        =20 Sent: Friday, February 15, 2002 11:13=20 AM
>>         = Subject:=20 Re: [CANSLIM] Lack of Buy=20 = Candidates
>>
>>
>>    &nb= sp;   =20 I find it almost absurd that WON discourages shorting. Almost=20 all
>of WON's ideas appear to have originated with Jesse=20 Livermore, who made the
>bulk of his money on the short = side. The=20 rules for selling a big CANSLIM
>winner make for perfect = short=20 candidates. Although selling a failed
>breakout as it = returns into=20 its base is NOT typically a good short
>candidate.=20 = JMHO.
>>
>>       &n= bsp;=20 = Ian
>>
>>
>>
>>   &nbs= p;    =20 ----- Original Message=20 = - -----
>>         &n= bsp;=20 From: Rob=20 = Miller
>>         &= nbsp;=20 To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=
>>           = Sent: Friday, February 15, 2002 6:40=20 = AM
>>          = ;=20 Subject: [CANSLIM] Lack of Buy=20 = Candidates
>>
>>
>>    &nb= sp;     =20 Even if we have a FTD from here, I see few stocks worth = buying.
>=20 However, my short list is overflowing.  The only moderately = attractive
>stocks I see on the long side are those = already in an=20 uptrend that are
>riding their lower=20 = channel.
>>
>>       = ;   =20 Is shorting considered off limits for this list?  I know=20 that
>WON discourages it, but he also claimed to make good = money=20 from shorts in
>HTMMIS.  As I understand it, he = discourages=20 it as a medium for the masses,
>nor necessarily for=20 = everyone.
>>
>>      &nbs= p;   =20 Rob
>>  << Datei: ATT00014.htm=20 >>




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