From: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com (canslim-digest) To: canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Subject: canslim-digest V2 #2187 Reply-To: canslim Sender: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Errors-To: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Precedence: bulk Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable X-No-Archive: yes canslim-digest Friday, March 8 2002 Volume 02 : Number 2187 In this issue: Re: [CANSLIM] Stock List Re: [CANSLIM] A short ride Re: [CANSLIM] A short ride Re: [CANSLIM] Worley's Weekend Weeview - commentary early Re: [CANSLIM] A short ride [CANSLIM] IBD and Thanks Re: [CANSLIM] A short ride Re: [CANSLIM] A short ride ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Date: 8 Mar 2002 07:41:20 -0800 From: "Tim Fisher" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Stock List I have an online home equity loan from Nexity. No different than a brick & mortar bank, IMO. They had the lowest interest rate after a rather extensive search of local and online banks. I am in agreement with you in that I accept less than stellar fundamentals if the chart is good. If I cut everything off at 80/80/80 I would wind up with a bunch of extended stocks with good fundamentals for a watch list. As it is I have those plus some nice charts with EPS in the 60s to 80s; this is where most of my buys come from. At 10:15 AM 3/8/2002 -0500, you wrote: > >NTBK - High growth, moving up. I have a hard time understanding the >appeal of using a purely online bank, though I've never tried it. > > >Any thoughts? > >I use a weight of the evidence approach where technicals receive a greater >weight than fundamentals (This is opposite from O'Neil's Canslim where >fundamentals get a greater weight). I also perform only cursory analysis >of the fundamentals. I use DGO for this and will occasionally go to Yahoo >for clarification, but I do not do in depth analysis of the financials >beyond what these two sources provide. > >Rob Tim Fisher Ore-ROCK-On Rockhounding Web Site Owner, Fisher Fisheries, Ltd. mailto:tim@OreRockOn.com WWW http://OreRockOn.com - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: 8 Mar 2002 07:46:05 -0800 From: "Tim Fisher" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] A short ride I agree that it's hard to stay in a stock if you buy over 5% above the pivot and then set an 8% stop. You are going to limit your losses but also get stopped out of way too many stocks. If I catch the 5% I set an 8% stop; If I buy 10% above I just add the difference to the stop. In other words the stop is 8% below 5% over the pivot. P.S. The preceding actually makes sense if you read it 2 or 3 times ;) P.P.S. People, try to edit your replies so there aren't 15 previous messages and tag lines at the bottom! Before you start grexing I know I am guilty too! At 09:18 AM 3/8/2002 -0600, you wrote: >Hi Duke, > >Just a couple of misc. comments to add to your post: > >On gaps up---This is an excellent entry strategy when the stock gaps open >out of a base and on earnings news. The best way to catch them is to know >which stocks are basing, are due to announce earnings, then place a buy >stop-limit, or be ready to take action live on the B/O that morning. In >general, stocks that gap up on strong volume and earnings news will >continue that move, so I don't hesitate to take them even if they are >beyond the 5% of pivot rule if the stock has all the right >characteristics. (I picked up this trick from a '96 IBD article on gaps, >later reinforced by Gary Kaltbaum's gap strategy) > >On WON's 4% losses--at both the IBD seminars I attended, I remember >comments from WON and his presenters in which they noted that they were >able to spot whether a breakout was going to work almost immediately. They >are so good at reading Price/Volume action that they can know whether they >are wrong about a breakout long before it hits the 8% rule. I've also >heard this same comment from other CANSLIM-style hedge fund managers such >as Greg Kuhn, Tim Truebenbach and Kevin Marder. The second thing they do >is to set a sell rule that will not allow them *any* loss once a stock has >successfully broken out. So, if the stock breaks out and then retraces on >light volume to the pivot, fine. But if the breakout succeeds and then >begins to fail on high volume, they are out long before it retraces and at >the very least, out at purchase price. I think these are subtleties lost >when CANSLIMers automatically assume that every purchase should be >protected with *exactly* an 8% loss. I think the sell rules are more >complex than that, but that doesn't mean they aren't consistent or repeatable. > >Katherine Tim Fisher Ore-ROCK-On Rockhounding Web Site Owner, Fisher Fisheries, Ltd. mailto:tim@OreRockOn.com WWW http://OreRockOn.com - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 8 Mar 2002 11:02:57 EST From: Spencer48@aol.com Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] A short ride Mike, I also recall that WON said something along that line. The difference-as I perceive it-is that the stock referred to in Investors Corner of 3/6/02 (immediately after breaking out) rises and then falls to close at the bottom of its range. This on high volume. I believe what WON was referring to (in your statement) is a stock that is taking a breather-and because of profit taking, after rising 20-25%, falls. If it doesn't fall below it's pivot, then it is likely just correcting normally. jans In a message dated 3/8/2002 5:51:38 AM Eastern Standard Time, m.lucero@verizon.net writes: << I seem to remember an article where they said don't worry if a stock falls hard back toward it's pivot, even on increasing volume. Hmm. >> - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 8 Mar 2002 11:08:05 EST From: Spencer48@aol.com Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Worley's Weekend Weeview - commentary early Tom, I read this morning (I believe it was in IBD) that Anderson has lost 28 corporate clients because and since the Enron imbroglio. jans In a message dated 3/8/2002 8:45:08 AM Eastern Standard Time, stkguru@netside.net writes: << BIG 4 AND A FRACTION?? Among the major clients that have already fled Andersen are Delta, Merck and Freddie Mac. >> - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 8 Mar 2002 11:14:58 EST From: Spencer48@aol.com Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] A short ride Duke: How do you know it is at the bottom of its daily range until the stock closes? jans In a message dated 3/8/2002 9:45:09 AM Eastern Standard Time, dukemill@tampabay.rr.com writes: << My recollection is, Mike, is to expect just that scenario you've described below, but ONLY when it CLOSES at the BOTTOM of the fall on high volume. Which poses a question : If it's noon, the stock is trading in the bottom of it's range on high volume, should you sell?... >> - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 8 Mar 2002 11:20:32 -0500 From: dave.bigham@us.abb.com Subject: [CANSLIM] IBD and Thanks First, a quick THANKS to all who responded to my question about discount brokers. Your insights, thoughts and opinion have been very useful. I get IBD by mail so I usually get to read it the next evening following publication day. In (I believe it was) Wednesday's Investor Corner, the issue of high ROE and exceptional returns was discussed. I am brand new to the ideas of CANSLIM and have absolutely no experience in its application to draw upon. That given, of the ten stocks listed, which of them were CANSLIM buy candidates within the last year and when? It is really neat to look back and say, 'All these stocks had great bu-fu numbers and see how well they have performed.' When and how could I have picked those stocks from a larger list and then run with them? Of the stocks listed, how many of them would have driven me out because of various sell rules or suggestions? Also and finally, ten stocks had great one year performance. What I don't know is how many other stocks also satisfied the screen criteria and were not included on that list? I have looked at the charts for the above mentioned stocks. There were lots of up and downs. The major correction in nearly all cases was, of course, 9/11. That aside, there was still a lot of rough going. Just a few thoughts and questions to stir the pot a little. All the best and happy hunting. Dave Bigham - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 8 Mar 2002 10:25:04 -0600 From: "david frank" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] A short ride This is a multi-part message in MIME format. - ------=_NextPart_000_003C_01C1C68B.82EF7710 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable that gap strategy didn't work well on the recent breakout of UOPX. WON = is talking about a 4% average loss-he just goes with the flow-it is = silly to take a 8% loss on each losing position. my problem with DGO = - -doesn't show enough of the left side to see if there was a previous = base. david ----- Original Message -----=20 From: Katherine Malm=20 To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20 Sent: Friday, March 08, 2002 9:18 AM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] A short ride Hi Duke, Just a couple of misc. comments to add to your post: On gaps up---This is an excellent entry strategy when the stock gaps = open out of a base and on earnings news. The best way to catch them is = to know which stocks are basing, are due to announce earnings, then = place a buy stop-limit, or be ready to take action live on the B/O that = morning. In general, stocks that gap up on strong volume and earnings = news will continue that move, so I don't hesitate to take them even if = they are beyond the 5% of pivot rule if the stock has all the right = characteristics. (I picked up this trick from a '96 IBD article on gaps, = later reinforced by Gary Kaltbaum's gap strategy) On WON's 4% losses--at both the IBD seminars I attended, I remember = comments from WON and his presenters in which they noted that they were = able to spot whether a breakout was going to work almost immediately. = They are so good at reading Price/Volume action that they can know = whether they are wrong about a breakout long before it hits the 8% rule. = I've also heard this same comment from other CANSLIM-style hedge fund = managers such as Greg Kuhn, Tim Truebenbach and Kevin Marder. The second = thing they do is to set a sell rule that will not allow them *any* loss = once a stock has successfully broken out. So, if the stock breaks out = and then retraces on light volume to the pivot, fine. But if the = breakout succeeds and then begins to fail on high volume, they are out = long before it retraces and at the very least, out at purchase price. I = think these are subtleties lost when CANSLIMers automatically assume = that every purchase should be protected with *exactly* an 8% loss. I = think the sell rules are more complex than that, but that doesn't mean = they aren't consistent or repeatable. Katherine ----- Original Message -----=20 From: Duke Miller=20 To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20 Sent: Friday, March 08, 2002 8:42 AM Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] A short ride Mike: If I may, some observations (albeit laced with a touch of cynicism, = which I hope is acceptable herein...in moderation, of course...). My recollection is, Mike, is to expect just that scenario you've = described below, but ONLY when it CLOSES at the BOTTOM of the fall on high = volume. Which poses a question: If it's noon, the stock is trading in the = bottom of it's range on high volume, should you sell? (Those of you who use = stops don't need to answer that...you're out already!) But what if it = rebounds an hour later, and subsequently closes down somewhat, but higher than = where it was at noon? Did I screw up selling too soon? The answer: See = tomorrow's chart, then decide! Then you'd find that what it did (pullback = slightly after breakout) was normal! "Remember when's" are more the rule than the exception these days. = A few recent examples: How many remember this one (from my notes at a seminar ten years = ago): "Only buy a stock after it CLOSES above its breakout on 150% or greater = volume. Then buy it at the next day's opening price." Hmm. I know the = volatile 90's necessitated a change, but the shakeouts I've encountered since January1 have caused me to reflect on this old rule. Then, just the other day, in Investor's Corner, "Only buy a stock = within 5% of its pivot point, unless it gaps up at the open." So if it gaps = up at the open is it okay to buy it if it's up 10% mid-day? I think I know = the answer: Only if TOMORROW's says you should have. Then comes this a.m.'s Big Picture: "Defense contractors, home = builders and some retailers that defied the market's recent correction are too = extended above their prior bases to buy without risking a shakeout." I = distinctly remember a recent comment therein that these are the stocks to = consider, because they're done so well in a down market! You know, high = Relative Strength? Finally, and hopefully this is only bordering on blasphemy: Today's Investors Corner says: "IBD founder William O'Neil says he's right = only about half the time. The secret to his success? At an IBD advanced = seminar last year, O'Neil said he's kept his losses at an average of about = 4%. But when he finds a winner...." Excuse me, isn't 4% about half the 8% "insurance" he recommends? Could this be a misprint? I know this only proves we're all constantly developing our own = variances on a theme. It's like I told my wife this morning: "You know, I think = I'm going to get this whole process nailed down to perfection the day = before I leave this world!" Ain't hindsight a wonderful thing? Now where = did I put tomorrow's charts??? Happy hunting... Duke > -----Original Message----- > From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com > [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of Mike Lucero > Sent: Friday, March 08, 2002 5:51 AM > To: canslim@lists.xmission.com > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] A short ride > > > I seem to remember an article where they said don't worry if a = stock falls > hard back toward it's pivot, even on increasing volume. Hmm. > > Mike > ----- Original Message ----- > From: "Bill Triffet" > To: > Sent: Thursday, March 07, 2002 11:47 AM > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] A short ride > > > Oops sorry Mike. I meant to get back to you. Thankfully Katherine > stepped up > to the plate with the article. > Btw, today's action confirms the failed breakout. Looked like a > great stock > at the time though... > > -Bill > > ----- Original Message ----- > From: "Katherine Malm" > To: > Sent: Thursday, March 07, 2002 11:26 AM > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] A short ride > > > Hi Mike, > > I've uploaded a copy of the article to: > > http://WallStreet-LLC.com/pub/BreakoutReversals030602.jpg > > Katherine > ----- Original Message ----- > From: Mike Lucero > To: canslim@lists.xmission.com > Sent: Wednesday, March 06, 2002 7:09 PM > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] A short ride > > > What did it say? > ----- Original Message ----- > From: "Bill Triffet" > To: > Sent: Wednesday, March 06, 2002 12:27 PM > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] A short ride > > > UOPX sure looks like another example of today's Investors > Corner - Beware > Of > Reversal On Breakout. A tail with large volume. I got out as = well. > > -Bill Triffet > > > ----- Original Message ----- > From: "Tim Fisher" > To: > Sent: Wednesday, March 06, 2002 9:37 AM > Subject: [CANSLIM] A short ride > > > > Well that was certainly a short ride with UOPX and POSS. > Makes me wonder > > whether this is a big cap rally now. All after I put in orders = for the > open > > today for NTBK and RBMG (neither of which is following suit, > thankfully). > > Anyway just really wanted to test the server since I don't > see any email > > from the group today. > > > > - > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. > > > - > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. > > > > > - > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. > > > > - > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. > - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - ------=_NextPart_000_003C_01C1C68B.82EF7710 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
that gap strategy didn't work well on = the recent=20 breakout of UOPX. WON is talking about a 4% average loss-he just goes = with the=20 flow-it is silly to take a 8% loss on each losing position. my problem = with DGO=20 - -doesn't show enough of the left side to see if there was a previous = base.=20 david
----- Original Message -----
From:=20 Katherine=20 Malm
Sent: Friday, March 08, 2002 = 9:18=20 AM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] A short = ride

Hi Duke,
 
Just a couple of misc. comments to add to your post:
 
On gaps up---This is an excellent entry strategy when the stock = gaps open=20 out of a base and on earnings news. The best way to catch them is to = know=20 which stocks are basing, are due to announce earnings, then place a = buy=20 stop-limit, or be ready to take action live on the B/O that morning. = In=20 general, stocks that gap up on strong volume and earnings news will = continue=20 that move, so I don't hesitate to take them even  if they are = beyond the=20 5% of pivot rule if the stock has all the right characteristics. (I = picked up=20 this trick from a '96 IBD article on gaps, later reinforced by Gary = Kaltbaum's=20 gap strategy)
 
On WON's 4% losses--at both the IBD seminars I attended, I = remember=20 comments from WON and his presenters in which they noted that they = were able=20 to spot whether a breakout was going to work almost immediately. They = are so=20 good at reading Price/Volume action that they can know whether they = are wrong=20 about a breakout long before it hits the 8% rule. I've also heard this = same=20 comment from other CANSLIM-style hedge fund managers such as Greg = Kuhn, Tim=20 Truebenbach and Kevin Marder. The second thing they do is to set a = sell rule=20 that will not allow them *any* loss once a stock has successfully = broken out.=20 So, if the stock breaks out and then retraces on light volume to the = pivot,=20 fine. But if the breakout succeeds and then begins to fail on high = volume,=20 they are out long before it retraces and at the very least, out at = purchase=20 price. I think these are subtleties lost when CANSLIMers automatically = assume=20 that every purchase should be protected with *exactly* an 8% loss. I = think the=20 sell rules are more complex than that, but that doesn't mean they = aren't=20 consistent or repeatable.
 
Katherine
----- Original Message -----
From:=20 Duke Miller
Sent: Friday, March 08, 2002 = 8:42=20 AM
Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] A = short=20 ride

Mike:

If I may, some observations (albeit = laced with a=20 touch of cynicism, which I
hope is acceptable herein...in = moderation, of=20 course...).

My recollection is, Mike, is to expect just that = scenario=20 you've described
below, but ONLY when it CLOSES at the BOTTOM of = the fall=20 on high volume.
Which poses a question:  If it's noon, the = stock is=20 trading in the bottom of
it's range on high volume, should you = sell?=20 (Those of you who use stops
don't need to answer that...you're = out=20 already!)  But what if it rebounds an
hour later, and = subsequently=20 closes down somewhat, but higher than where it
was at noon?  = Did I=20 screw up selling too soon?  The answer:  See = tomorrow's
chart,=20 then decide!  Then you'd find that what it did (pullback=20 slightly
after breakout) was normal!

"Remember when's" are = more=20 the rule than the exception these days.  A few
recent=20 examples:

How many remember this one (from my notes at a = seminar ten=20 years ago): "Only
buy a stock after it CLOSES above its breakout = on 150%=20 or greater volume.
Then buy it at the next day's opening = price." =20 Hmm.  I know the volatile
90's necessitated a change, but = the=20 shakeouts I've encountered since
January1 have caused me to = reflect on=20 this old rule.

Then, just the other day, in Investor's = Corner, "Only=20 buy a stock within 5%
of its pivot point, unless it gaps up at = the=20 open."  So if it gaps up at the
open is it okay to buy it if = it's up=20 10% mid-day?  I think I know the
answer:  Only if = TOMORROW's=20 says you should have.

Then comes this a.m.'s Big Picture: = "Defense=20 contractors, home builders and
some retailers that defied the = market's=20 recent correction are too extended
above their prior bases to buy = without=20 risking a shakeout."  I distinctly
remember a recent comment = therein=20 that these are the stocks to consider,
because they're done so = well in a=20 down market!  You know, high = Relative
Strength?

Finally, and=20 hopefully this is only bordering on blasphemy:  = Today's
Investors=20 Corner says:  "IBD founder William O'Neil says he's right = only
about=20 half the time.  The secret to his success?  At an IBD = advanced=20 seminar
last year, O'Neil said he's kept his losses at an average = of=20 about 4%.  But
when he finds a winner...."  Excuse me, = isn't 4%=20 about half the 8%
"insurance" he recommends?  Could this be = a=20 misprint?

I know this only proves we're all constantly = developing our=20 own variances on
a theme.  It's like I told my wife this=20 morning:  "You know, I think I'm
going to get this whole = process=20 nailed down to perfection the day before I
leave this = world!"  Ain't=20 hindsight a wonderful thing?  Now where did I put
tomorrow's = charts???

Happy hunting...

Duke


> = - -----Original=20 Message-----
> From: owner-canslim@lists.xmis= sion.com
>=20 [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of Mike = Lucero
>=20 Sent: Friday, March 08, 2002 5:51 AM
> To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=
>=20 Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] A short ride
>
>
> I seem = to=20 remember an article where they said don't worry if a stock = falls
>=20 hard back toward it's pivot, even on increasing volume. = Hmm.
>
>=20 Mike
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "Bill = Triffet"=20 <btriffet@earthlink.net>
= >=20 To: <canslim@lists.xmission.com= >
>=20 Sent: Thursday, March 07, 2002 11:47 AM
> Subject: Re: = [CANSLIM] A=20 short ride
>
>
> Oops sorry Mike. I meant to get = back to=20 you. Thankfully Katherine
> stepped up
> to the plate = with the=20 article.
> Btw, today's action confirms the failed breakout. = Looked=20 like a
> great stock
> at the time = though...
>
>=20 -Bill
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: = "Katherine=20 Malm" <kmalm@earthlink.net>
> = To:=20 <canslim@lists.xmission.com= >
>=20 Sent: Thursday, March 07, 2002 11:26 AM
> Subject: Re: = [CANSLIM] A=20 short ride
>
>
> Hi Mike,
>
> I've = uploaded a=20 copy of the article to:
>
> http:/= /WallStreet-LLC.com/pub/BreakoutReversals030602.jpg
>
>=20 Katherine
>   ----- Original Message=20 -----
>   From: Mike Lucero
>   To: = canslim@lists.xmission.com=
>  =20 Sent: Wednesday, March 06, 2002 7:09 PM
>   Subject: = Re:=20 [CANSLIM] A short ride
>
>
>   What did = it=20 say?
>   ----- Original Message = - -----
>  =20 From: "Bill Triffet" <btriffet@earthlink.net>
= >  =20 To: <canslim@lists.xmission.com= >
>  =20 Sent: Wednesday, March 06, 2002 12:27 PM
>   = Subject: Re:=20 [CANSLIM] A short ride
>
>
>   UOPX sure = looks=20 like another example of today's Investors
> Corner - = Beware
>=20 Of
>   Reversal On Breakout. A tail with large = volume. I got=20 out as well.
>
>   -Bill=20 Triffet
>
>
>   ----- Original Message=20 -----
>   From: "Tim Fisher" <Tim@orerockon.com>
> =  =20 To: <canslim@mail.xmission.com&g= t;
>  =20 Sent: Wednesday, March 06, 2002 9:37 AM
>   Subject: = [CANSLIM] A short ride
>
>
>   > Well = that=20 was certainly a short ride with UOPX and POSS.
> Makes me=20 wonder
>   > whether this is a big cap rally now. = All=20 after I put in orders for the
>   = open
>  =20 > today for NTBK and RBMG (neither of which is following = suit,
>=20 thankfully).
>   > Anyway just really wanted to = test the=20 server since I don't
> see any email
>   > = from the=20 group today.
>
>
>
>  =20 -
>   -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com"
>= ;  =20 -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or
>   = -"unsubscribe canslim".  Do not use quotes in your=20 email.
>
>
>   -
>   -To = subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com"
>= ;  =20 -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or
>   = -"unsubscribe canslim".  Do not use quotes in your=20 email.
>
>
>
>
> -
> -To=20 subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com"
>= ; -In=20 the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or
> -"unsubscribe=20 canslim".  Do not use quotes in your=20 email.
>
>
>
> -
> -To = subscribe/unsubscribe,=20 email "majordomo@xmission.com"
>= ; -In=20 the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or
> -"unsubscribe=20 canslim".  Do not use quotes in your = email.
>


-
-To=20 subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com"
-In= the=20 email body, write "subscribe canslim" or
-"unsubscribe = canslim".  Do=20 not use quotes in your = email.
- ------=_NextPart_000_003C_01C1C68B.82EF7710-- - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 8 Mar 2002 10:59:33 -0600 From: "Katherine Malm" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] A short ride This is a multi-part message in MIME format. - ------=_NextPart_000_0039_01C1C690.54749000 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable Hi David, On UOPX-- - -Gap wasn't on earnings news. (I don't go for all gaps.) Gaps have to be = put in context, as some are simply exhaustion gaps. - -On a gap from a base, earnings news or no, the stock still needs to = have all the right characteristics to be a worthy buy. - -Even if I'd considered it a worthy buy (which I didn't), a tail on high = volume near/at a high is a bad sign. Two tails in a row is a very bad = sign. The new DGO has weekly as well as daily charts, but even without the new = beta, I think all chart review should be from both a near term, = up-close-and-personal view for exact timing of the buy but also a = mile-high view of the last year or so to put the recent action in = context. This is especially important for assessing whether the new base = is a 1st, 2nd, 3rd or 4th stage. Katherine ----- Original Message -----=20 From: david frank=20 To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20 Sent: Friday, March 08, 2002 10:25 AM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] A short ride that gap strategy didn't work well on the recent breakout of UOPX. WON = is talking about a 4% average loss-he just goes with the flow-it is = silly to take a 8% loss on each losing position. my problem with DGO = - -doesn't show enough of the left side to see if there was a previous = base. david ----- Original Message -----=20 From: Katherine Malm=20 To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20 Sent: Friday, March 08, 2002 9:18 AM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] A short ride Hi Duke, Just a couple of misc. comments to add to your post: On gaps up---This is an excellent entry strategy when the stock gaps = open out of a base and on earnings news. The best way to catch them is = to know which stocks are basing, are due to announce earnings, then = place a buy stop-limit, or be ready to take action live on the B/O that = morning. In general, stocks that gap up on strong volume and earnings = news will continue that move, so I don't hesitate to take them even if = they are beyond the 5% of pivot rule if the stock has all the right = characteristics. (I picked up this trick from a '96 IBD article on gaps, = later reinforced by Gary Kaltbaum's gap strategy) On WON's 4% losses--at both the IBD seminars I attended, I remember = comments from WON and his presenters in which they noted that they were = able to spot whether a breakout was going to work almost immediately. = They are so good at reading Price/Volume action that they can know = whether they are wrong about a breakout long before it hits the 8% rule. = I've also heard this same comment from other CANSLIM-style hedge fund = managers such as Greg Kuhn, Tim Truebenbach and Kevin Marder. The second = thing they do is to set a sell rule that will not allow them *any* loss = once a stock has successfully broken out. So, if the stock breaks out = and then retraces on light volume to the pivot, fine. But if the = breakout succeeds and then begins to fail on high volume, they are out = long before it retraces and at the very least, out at purchase price. I = think these are subtleties lost when CANSLIMers automatically assume = that every purchase should be protected with *exactly* an 8% loss. I = think the sell rules are more complex than that, but that doesn't mean = they aren't consistent or repeatable. Katherine ----- Original Message -----=20 From: Duke Miller=20 To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20 Sent: Friday, March 08, 2002 8:42 AM Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] A short ride Mike: If I may, some observations (albeit laced with a touch of = cynicism, which I hope is acceptable herein...in moderation, of course...). My recollection is, Mike, is to expect just that scenario you've = described below, but ONLY when it CLOSES at the BOTTOM of the fall on high = volume. Which poses a question: If it's noon, the stock is trading in the = bottom of it's range on high volume, should you sell? (Those of you who use = stops don't need to answer that...you're out already!) But what if it = rebounds an hour later, and subsequently closes down somewhat, but higher than = where it was at noon? Did I screw up selling too soon? The answer: See = tomorrow's chart, then decide! Then you'd find that what it did (pullback = slightly after breakout) was normal! "Remember when's" are more the rule than the exception these days. = A few recent examples: How many remember this one (from my notes at a seminar ten years = ago): "Only buy a stock after it CLOSES above its breakout on 150% or greater = volume. Then buy it at the next day's opening price." Hmm. I know the = volatile 90's necessitated a change, but the shakeouts I've encountered = since January1 have caused me to reflect on this old rule. Then, just the other day, in Investor's Corner, "Only buy a stock = within 5% of its pivot point, unless it gaps up at the open." So if it gaps = up at the open is it okay to buy it if it's up 10% mid-day? I think I know = the answer: Only if TOMORROW's says you should have. Then comes this a.m.'s Big Picture: "Defense contractors, home = builders and some retailers that defied the market's recent correction are too = extended above their prior bases to buy without risking a shakeout." I = distinctly remember a recent comment therein that these are the stocks to = consider, because they're done so well in a down market! You know, high = Relative Strength? Finally, and hopefully this is only bordering on blasphemy: = Today's Investors Corner says: "IBD founder William O'Neil says he's = right only about half the time. The secret to his success? At an IBD = advanced seminar last year, O'Neil said he's kept his losses at an average of about = 4%. But when he finds a winner...." Excuse me, isn't 4% about half the 8% "insurance" he recommends? Could this be a misprint? I know this only proves we're all constantly developing our own = variances on a theme. It's like I told my wife this morning: "You know, I = think I'm going to get this whole process nailed down to perfection the day = before I leave this world!" Ain't hindsight a wonderful thing? Now where = did I put tomorrow's charts??? Happy hunting... Duke > -----Original Message----- > From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com > [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of Mike = Lucero > Sent: Friday, March 08, 2002 5:51 AM > To: canslim@lists.xmission.com > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] A short ride > > > I seem to remember an article where they said don't worry if a = stock falls > hard back toward it's pivot, even on increasing volume. Hmm. > > Mike > ----- Original Message ----- > From: "Bill Triffet" > To: > Sent: Thursday, March 07, 2002 11:47 AM > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] A short ride > > > Oops sorry Mike. I meant to get back to you. Thankfully = Katherine > stepped up > to the plate with the article. > Btw, today's action confirms the failed breakout. Looked like a > great stock > at the time though... > > -Bill > > ----- Original Message ----- > From: "Katherine Malm" > To: > Sent: Thursday, March 07, 2002 11:26 AM > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] A short ride > > > Hi Mike, > > I've uploaded a copy of the article to: > > http://WallStreet-LLC.com/pub/BreakoutReversals030602.jpg > > Katherine > ----- Original Message ----- > From: Mike Lucero > To: canslim@lists.xmission.com > Sent: Wednesday, March 06, 2002 7:09 PM > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] A short ride > > > What did it say? > ----- Original Message ----- > From: "Bill Triffet" > To: > Sent: Wednesday, March 06, 2002 12:27 PM > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] A short ride > > > UOPX sure looks like another example of today's Investors > Corner - Beware > Of > Reversal On Breakout. A tail with large volume. I got out as = well. > > -Bill Triffet > > > ----- Original Message ----- > From: "Tim Fisher" > To: > Sent: Wednesday, March 06, 2002 9:37 AM > Subject: [CANSLIM] A short ride > > > > Well that was certainly a short ride with UOPX and POSS. > Makes me wonder > > whether this is a big cap rally now. All after I put in = orders for the > open > > today for NTBK and RBMG (neither of which is following suit, > thankfully). > > Anyway just really wanted to test the server since I don't > see any email > > from the group today. > > > > - > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. > > > - > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. > > > > > - > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. > > > > - > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. > - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - ------=_NextPart_000_0039_01C1C690.54749000 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
Hi David,
 
On UOPX--
 
-Gap wasn't on earnings news. (I don't go for all gaps.) Gaps have = to be=20 put in context, as some are simply exhaustion gaps.
-On a gap from a base, earnings news or no, the stock still needs = to have=20 all the right characteristics to be a worthy buy.
-Even if I'd considered it a worthy buy (which I didn't), a tail on = high=20 volume near/at a high is a bad sign. Two tails in a row is a very = bad=20 sign.
 
The new DGO has weekly as well as daily charts, but even without = the new=20 beta, I think all chart review should be from both a near term,=20 up-close-and-personal view for exact timing of the buy but also a = mile-high view=20 of the last year or so to put the recent action in context. This is = especially=20 important for assessing whether the new base is a 1st, 2nd, 3rd or 4th=20 stage.
 
Katherine
----- Original Message -----
From:=20 david frank
Sent: Friday, March 08, 2002 = 10:25=20 AM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] A short = ride

that gap strategy didn't work well on = the recent=20 breakout of UOPX. WON is talking about a 4% average loss-he just goes = with the=20 flow-it is silly to take a 8% loss on each losing position. my problem = with=20 DGO -doesn't show enough of the left side to see if there was a = previous base.=20 david
----- Original Message -----
From:=20 Katherine=20 Malm
Sent: Friday, March 08, 2002 = 9:18=20 AM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] A = short=20 ride

Hi Duke,
 
Just a couple of misc. comments to add to your post:
 
On gaps up---This is an excellent entry strategy when the stock = gaps=20 open out of a base and on earnings news. The best way to catch them = is to=20 know which stocks are basing, are due to announce earnings, then = place a buy=20 stop-limit, or be ready to take action live on the B/O that morning. = In=20 general, stocks that gap up on strong volume and earnings news will = continue=20 that move, so I don't hesitate to take them even  if they are = beyond=20 the 5% of pivot rule if the stock has all the right characteristics. = (I=20 picked up this trick from a '96 IBD article on gaps, later = reinforced by=20 Gary Kaltbaum's gap strategy)
 
On WON's 4% losses--at both the IBD seminars I attended, I = remember=20 comments from WON and his presenters in which they noted that they = were able=20 to spot whether a breakout was going to work almost immediately. = They are so=20 good at reading Price/Volume action that they can know whether they = are=20 wrong about a breakout long before it hits the 8% rule. I've also = heard this=20 same comment from other CANSLIM-style hedge fund managers such as = Greg Kuhn,=20 Tim Truebenbach and Kevin Marder. The second thing they do is to set = a sell=20 rule that will not allow them *any* loss once a stock has = successfully=20 broken out. So, if the stock breaks out and then retraces on light = volume to=20 the pivot, fine. But if the breakout succeeds and then begins to = fail on=20 high volume, they are out long before it retraces and at the very = least, out=20 at purchase price. I think these are subtleties lost when CANSLIMers = automatically assume that every purchase should be protected with = *exactly*=20 an 8% loss. I think the sell rules are more complex than that, but = that=20 doesn't mean they aren't consistent or repeatable.
 
Katherine
----- Original Message ----- =
From:=20 Duke Miller
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com= =20
Sent: Friday, March 08, = 2002 8:42=20 AM
Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] A = short=20 ride

Mike:

If I may, some observations (albeit = laced with=20 a touch of cynicism, which I
hope is acceptable herein...in = moderation,=20 of course...).

My recollection is, Mike, is to expect just = that=20 scenario you've described
below, but ONLY when it CLOSES at the = BOTTOM=20 of the fall on high volume.
Which poses a question:  If = it's noon,=20 the stock is trading in the bottom of
it's range on high = volume, should=20 you sell? (Those of you who use stops
don't need to answer=20 that...you're out already!)  But what if it rebounds = an
hour=20 later, and subsequently closes down somewhat, but higher than = where=20 it
was at noon?  Did I screw up selling too soon?  = The=20 answer:  See tomorrow's
chart, then decide!  Then = you'd find=20 that what it did (pullback slightly
after breakout) was=20 normal!

"Remember when's" are more the rule than the = exception=20 these days.  A few
recent examples:

How many = remember this=20 one (from my notes at a seminar ten years ago): "Only
buy a = stock after=20 it CLOSES above its breakout on 150% or greater volume.
Then = buy it at=20 the next day's opening price."  Hmm.  I know the=20 volatile
90's necessitated a change, but the shakeouts I've = encountered=20 since
January1 have caused me to reflect on this old = rule.

Then,=20 just the other day, in Investor's Corner, "Only buy a stock within = 5%
of its pivot point, unless it gaps up at the open."  So = if it=20 gaps up at the
open is it okay to buy it if it's up 10% = mid-day? =20 I think I know the
answer:  Only if TOMORROW's says you = should=20 have.

Then comes this a.m.'s Big Picture: "Defense = contractors,=20 home builders and
some retailers that defied the market's = recent=20 correction are too extended
above their prior bases to buy = without=20 risking a shakeout."  I distinctly
remember a recent = comment=20 therein that these are the stocks to consider,
because they're = done so=20 well in a down market!  You know, high=20 Relative
Strength?

Finally, and hopefully this is only = bordering=20 on blasphemy:  Today's
Investors Corner says:  "IBD = founder=20 William O'Neil says he's right only
about half the time.  = The=20 secret to his success?  At an IBD advanced seminar
last = year,=20 O'Neil said he's kept his losses at an average of about 4%. =20 But
when he finds a winner...."  Excuse me, isn't 4% about = half=20 the 8%
"insurance" he recommends?  Could this be a=20 misprint?

I know this only proves we're all constantly = developing=20 our own variances on
a theme.  It's like I told my wife = this=20 morning:  "You know, I think I'm
going to get this whole = process=20 nailed down to perfection the day before I
leave this = world!" =20 Ain't hindsight a wonderful thing?  Now where did I = put
tomorrow's=20 charts???

Happy hunting...

Duke


>=20 -----Original Message-----
> From: owner-canslim@lists.xmis= sion.com
>=20 [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of Mike = Lucero
>=20 Sent: Friday, March 08, 2002 5:51 AM
> To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=
>=20 Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] A short ride
>
>
> I seem = to=20 remember an article where they said don't worry if a stock = falls
>=20 hard back toward it's pivot, even on increasing volume.=20 Hmm.
>
> Mike
> ----- Original Message = - -----
>=20 From: "Bill Triffet" <btriffet@earthlink.net>
= >=20 To: <canslim@lists.xmission.com= >
>=20 Sent: Thursday, March 07, 2002 11:47 AM
> Subject: Re: = [CANSLIM] A=20 short ride
>
>
> Oops sorry Mike. I meant to get = back to=20 you. Thankfully Katherine
> stepped up
> to the plate = with the=20 article.
> Btw, today's action confirms the failed breakout. = Looked=20 like a
> great stock
> at the time = though...
>
>=20 -Bill
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From:=20 "Katherine Malm" <kmalm@earthlink.net>
> = To:=20 <canslim@lists.xmission.com= >
>=20 Sent: Thursday, March 07, 2002 11:26 AM
> Subject: Re: = [CANSLIM] A=20 short ride
>
>
> Hi Mike,
>
> I've = uploaded=20 a copy of the article to:
>
> http:/= /WallStreet-LLC.com/pub/BreakoutReversals030602.jpg
>
>=20 Katherine
>   ----- Original Message=20 -----
>   From: Mike Lucero
>   = To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=
>  =20 Sent: Wednesday, March 06, 2002 7:09 PM
>   = Subject: Re:=20 [CANSLIM] A short ride
>
>
>   What = did it=20 say?
>   ----- Original Message = - -----
>  =20 From: "Bill Triffet" <btriffet@earthlink.net>
= >  =20 To: <canslim@lists.xmission.com= >
>  =20 Sent: Wednesday, March 06, 2002 12:27 PM
>   = Subject: Re:=20 [CANSLIM] A short ride
>
>
>   UOPX = sure looks=20 like another example of today's Investors
> Corner - = Beware
>=20 Of
>   Reversal On Breakout. A tail with large = volume. I=20 got out as well.
>
>   -Bill=20 Triffet
>
>
>   ----- Original Message = -----
>   From: "Tim Fisher" <Tim@orerockon.com>
> =  =20 To: <canslim@mail.xmission.com&g= t;
>  =20 Sent: Wednesday, March 06, 2002 9:37 AM
>   = Subject:=20 [CANSLIM] A short ride
>
>
>   > = Well that=20 was certainly a short ride with UOPX and POSS.
> Makes me=20 wonder
>   > whether this is a big cap rally = now. All=20 after I put in orders for the
>   = open
>  =20 > today for NTBK and RBMG (neither of which is following = suit,
>=20 thankfully).
>   > Anyway just really wanted to = test=20 the server since I don't
> see any email
>   = >=20 from the group today.
>
>
>
>  =20 -
>   -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com"
>= ;  =20 -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" = or
>  =20 -"unsubscribe canslim".  Do not use quotes in your=20 email.
>
>
>   -
>   = - -To=20 subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com"
>= ;  =20 -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" = or
>  =20 -"unsubscribe canslim".  Do not use quotes in your=20 email.
>
>
>
>
> -
> -To=20 subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com"
>= ;=20 -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or
> = - -"unsubscribe=20 canslim".  Do not use quotes in your=20 email.
>
>
>
> -
> -To=20 subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com"
>= ;=20 -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or
> = - -"unsubscribe=20 canslim".  Do not use quotes in your=20 email.
>


-
-To subscribe/unsubscribe, email = "majordomo@xmission.com"
-In= =20 the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or
-"unsubscribe=20 canslim".  Do not use quotes in your=20 email.
- ------=_NextPart_000_0039_01C1C690.54749000-- - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ End of canslim-digest V2 #2187 ****************************** To unsubscribe to canslim-digest, send an email to "majordomo@xmission.com" with "unsubscribe canslim-digest" in the body of the message. For information on digests or retrieving files and old messages send "help" to the same address. Do not use quotes in your message.