From: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com (canslim-digest) To: canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Subject: canslim-digest V2 #2292 Reply-To: canslim Sender: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Errors-To: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Precedence: bulk Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable X-No-Archive: yes canslim-digest Wednesday, April 10 2002 Volume 02 : Number 2292 In this issue: RE: [CANSLIM] NVR [CANSLIM] CNTL Re: [CANSLIM] CNTL Re: [CANSLIM] CNTL Re: [CANSLIM] Breakouts Re: [CANSLIM] M for Market ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Date: Wed, 10 Apr 2002 15:05:12 -1000 From: "Mike Gibbons" Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] NVR This is a multi-part message in MIME format. - ------=_NextPart_000_002D_01C1E0A1.1D5D6120 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit Thanks Katherine. Your answers are always very good value! I don't use the 8% rule but didn't have a good rule of where to set the stop below support. Now I do!!! Aloha, Mike Gibbons Proactive Technologies, LLC http://www.proactech.com -----Original Message----- From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of Katherine Malm Sent: Wednesday, April 10, 2002 2:54 PM To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] NVR Mike, You've changed my example from the numbers I was using. Let me go with your example. If the stock is $24.99, then the closest .50 mark is $25.00. I suppose I should have said "round to the nearest .50". That means the stop would be set at $25.00-0.13 = 24.87. The whole idea of setting the stop below congestion in the first place is to stay out of the way if the stock simply moves into congestion again. Again, the stop would be set 0.10 below congestion if you're using a more standard interpretation. That means "standard" would be set at $24.89. My stop is set at $24.87. Only 2 cents difference on 24.99 congestion. You can't count the 0.10 as "cost" because its sunk under either rule of thumb. My "price" for sticking to odd numbers is 0.02/24.99 = 0.0008, or 0.08%. In my original example my "price" is the difference between the "standard" and the "odd rule" and is 0.02% not 3% as you originally suggested. Throw away all the math for a moment...the point is that you pay a price for setting a stop in either case if you don't get out on your own ahead of the stop. When you set a stop, you are *choosing* an exit point and then letting someone else execute it. In either case, you don't necessarily exit at the stop price because fast trade will often drop the price below your stop before execution. That's why I prefer to use mental stops + sound discipline and exit when I wish to do so. Of course, that requires maintaining focus as well, something I've been known to screw up on every now and again. In that case, I chalk it up to tuition. Katherine ----- Original Message ----- From: Mike Gibbons To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Sent: Wednesday, April 10, 2002 7:17 PM Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] NVR Hi Katherine, I hope I'm not flogging a dead horse here... Perhaps my interpretation of your comment was incorrect or my math is fuzzy :-) . You said "I go $0.13 below the closest $.50 mark ...". By closest I assumed you meant the closest $.50 below the congestion (I'm not familiar with that term, but I presume you mean the support level). So if the congestion was at $24.99 then you would put the stop at $24.50 - $0.13 = $24.37. That is $0.62 below the support level, or in this case 2.5%. I don't mean to be nit-picking - just a techie trying to understand. Aloha, Mike Gibbons Proactive Technologies, LLC http://www.proactech.com -----Original Message----- From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of Katherine Malm Sent: Wednesday, April 10, 2002 1:12 PM To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] NVR Hi Mike, I'm not sure how you got 3%.... Most trailing stops are set about 0.10 below the recent congestion. Either way, you're already sacrificing the 0.10 to set the stop and so its a sunk cost. In my example, a stop $0 .10 below congestion would be set at 24.42. I set it at 24.37. That's $0.05 or 0.2% more than a $0.10 stop on the same stock. If I were trading billions, I'd worry about it. I don't use stops as a trading technique on long positions, I use them as catastrophic insurance. Profits on long positions I take on my own with mental stops and will be out long before a stop is hit if other price/volume indicators trigger a sell. I think as an intermediate term trader that is the best route, as you want to give a stock room to breathe as it makes its advance. Also, stops get hit in intraday swings. As an intermediate term player, the close is what's important. Katherine ----- Original Message ----- From: Mike Gibbons To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Sent: Wednesday, April 10, 2002 5:52 PM Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] NVR Hi Katherine, I understand staying away from round numbers, but I'm wondering why you choose another 0.13 below. That could put your stop at up to (0.49 + 0.13 = 0.62) which seems to give a lot of room for further losses. On a $20 stock that would be an additional 3%. But I'm sure you have a sound reason, so I'm wondering if you'd explain. Aloha, Mike Gibbons Proactive Technologies, LLC http://www.proactech.com -----Original Message----- From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of Katherine Malm Sent: Wednesday, April 10, 2002 12:41 PM To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] NVR Hi Bill, I think everybody is different when it comes to setting their stop...I go $0.13 below the closest $.50 mark just to stay out of round numbers. So if the bottom of congestion were $24.52, I'd set a stop at $24.50 - 0.13 = $24.37. That odd number has saved me from getting caught in a quick sweep plenty of times. Katherine ----- Original Message ----- From: William King To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Sent: Wednesday, April 10, 2002 5:25 PM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] NVR Katherine, Thanks for the trailing stop info. Not knowing any better I have been in the arbitrary 8% camp unless there is obvious support in that area. When they say "below" a given area - how far below? .10, .50 ?? ----- Original Message ----- From: Katherine Malm To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Sent: Tuesday, April 09, 2002 11:26 PM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] NVR Dimitri, There are many ways to set a trailing stop. Some use trend lines, some use a recent area of consolidation, some use the volatility of the stock, some use moving averages. The one thing you do *not* want to do is choose an arbitrary number such as 8% as a trailing stop. You run the risk of being stopped out of a stock that is experiencing a "normal" pullback in its uptrend. I've uploaded an article on trailing stops written by Mark Boucher to the CANSIM site. You'll find it at: http://WallStreet-LLC.com/pub/TrailingStops.doc Use a wise approach to setting your stop and you will be more likely to find that delicate balance between protecting profits, riding a good stock as long as possible and protecting against catastrophic loss. Katherine ----- Original Message ----- From: Dimitri Katsaros To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Sent: Tuesday, April 09, 2002 5:29 PM Subject: [CANSLIM] NVR Thank you all for the advice on NVR... after hearing all that has been said and looking at the chart, I'm going to take Katherine Malm's advice by putting a trailing stop. Should I do it at 8% or perhaps larger to weather out any volatility? Thanks Dimitri ===== Quiquid latine dictum sit altum viditur __________________________________________________ Do You Yahoo!? Yahoo! Tax Center - online filing with TurboTax http://taxes.yahoo.com/ - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - ------=_NextPart_000_002D_01C1E0A1.1D5D6120 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
Thanks=20 Katherine. Your answers are always very good value! I don't use the 8% = rule but=20 didn't have a good rule of where to set the stop below support. Now I=20 do!!!
 
Aloha,
 
Mike Gibbons
Proactive Technologies, = LLC
http://www.proactech.com
-----Original Message-----
From:=20 owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com=20 [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of Katherine = Malm
Sent: Wednesday, April 10, 2002 2:54 PM
To:=20 canslim@lists.xmission.com
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM]=20 NVR

Mike,
 
You've changed my example from the numbers I was using. Let me go = with=20 your example. If the stock is $24.99, then the closest .50 mark is = $25.00. I=20 suppose I should have said "round to the nearest .50". That means the = stop=20 would be set at $25.00-0.13 =3D 24.87.
 
The whole idea of setting the stop below congestion in the first = place is=20 to stay out of the way if the stock simply moves into congestion = again. Again,=20 the stop would be set 0.10 below congestion if you're using a more = standard=20 interpretation. That means "standard" would be set at $24.89. My stop = is set=20 at $24.87. Only 2 cents difference on 24.99 congestion. You can't = count the=20 0.10 as "cost" because its sunk under either rule of thumb. My "price" = for=20 sticking to odd numbers is 0.02/24.99 =3D 0.0008, or 0.08%.
 
In my original example my "price" is the difference between the=20 "standard" and the "odd rule" and is 0.02% not 3% as you originally=20 suggested.
 
Throw away all the math for a moment...the point is that you pay = a price=20 for setting a stop in either case if you don't get out on your own = ahead of=20 the stop. When you set a stop, you are *choosing* an exit point and = then=20 letting someone else execute it. In either case, you don't necessarily = exit at=20 the stop price because fast trade will often drop the price below your = stop=20 before execution. That's why I prefer to use mental stops + sound = discipline=20 and exit when I wish to do so. Of course, that requires maintaining = focus as=20 well, something I've been known to screw up on every now and again. In = that=20 case, I chalk it up to tuition.
 
Katherine
----- Original Message -----
From:=20 Mike Gibbons
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com =
Sent: Wednesday, April 10, = 2002 7:17=20 PM
Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] = NVR

Hi=20 Katherine,
 
I=20 hope I'm not flogging a dead horse here... Perhaps my interpretation = of your=20 comment was incorrect or my math is fuzzy :-) . You said "I go $0.13 = below=20 the closest $.50 mark ...". By closest I assumed you meant the = closest=20 $.50 below the congestion (I'm not familiar with that term, but I = presume=20 you mean the support level). So if the congestion was at $24.99 then = you=20 would put the stop at $24.50 - $0.13 =3D $24.37. That is $0.62 below = the=20 support level, or in this case 2.5%.
 
I=20 don't mean to be nit-picking - just a techie trying to understand.=20
 
Aloha,
 
Mike Gibbons
Proactive = Technologies,=20 LLC
http://www.proactech.com
-----Original Message-----
From:=20 owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com=20 [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of = Katherine=20 Malm
Sent: Wednesday, April 10, 2002 1:12 = PM
To:=20 canslim@lists.xmission.com
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM]=20 NVR

Hi Mike,
 
I'm not sure how you got 3%.... Most trailing stops are set = about=20 0.10 below the recent congestion. Either way, you're already = sacrificing=20 the 0.10 to set the stop and so its a sunk cost. In my example, a = stop $0=20 .10 below congestion would be set at 24.42. I set it at 24.37. = That's=20 $0.05 or 0.2% more than a $0.10 stop on the same stock. If I were = trading=20 billions, I'd worry about it. I don't use stops as a trading = technique on=20 long positions, I use them as catastrophic insurance. Profits on = long=20 positions I take on my own with mental stops and will be out long = before a=20 stop is hit if other price/volume indicators trigger a sell. I = think as an=20 intermediate term trader that is the best route, as you want to = give a=20 stock room to breathe as it makes its advance. Also, stops get hit = in=20 intraday swings. As an intermediate term player, the close is = what's=20 important.
 
Katherine
----- Original Message ----- =
From:=20 Mike Gibbons
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
Sent: Wednesday, April = 10, 2002=20 5:52 PM
Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] = NVR

Hi Katherine,
 
I understand staying away from round = numbers,=20 but I'm wondering why you choose another 0.13 below. That could = put your=20 stop at up to (0.49 + 0.13 =3D 0.62) which seems to give a lot = of room for=20 further losses. On a $20 stock that would be an additional=20 3%.
 
But I'm sure you have a sound reason, = so I'm=20 wondering if you'd explain.
 
Aloha,
 
Mike Gibbons
Proactive = Technologies,=20 LLC
http://www.proactech.com
-----Original Message-----
From:=20 owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com=20 [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of = Katherine=20 Malm
Sent: Wednesday, April 10, 2002 12:41 = PM
To:=20 canslim@lists.xmission.com
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM]=20 NVR

Hi Bill,
 
I think everybody is different when it comes to setting = their=20 stop...I go $0.13 below the closest $.50 mark just to = stay out of=20 round numbers. So if the bottom of congestion were $24.52, I'd = set a=20 stop at $24.50 - 0.13 =3D $24.37. That odd number has saved me = from=20 getting caught in a quick sweep plenty of times.
 
Katherine
----- Original Message ----- =
From:=20 William=20 King
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20
Sent: Wednesday, = April 10, 2002=20 5:25 PM
Subject: Re: = [CANSLIM]=20 NVR

Katherine,
Thanks for the trailing = stop info. Not=20 knowing any better I have been in the arbitrary 8% camp = unless=20 there is obvious support in that area. When they say "below" = a given=20 area - how far below? .10, .50  ??
----- Original Message -----
From:=20 Katherine Malm
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20
Sent: Tuesday, = April 09, 2002=20 11:26 PM
Subject: Re: = [CANSLIM]=20 NVR

Dimitri,
 
There are many ways to set a trailing stop. Some use = trend=20 lines, some use a recent area of consolidation, some use = the=20 volatility of the stock, some use moving averages. The one = thing=20 you do *not* want to do is choose an arbitrary number such = as 8%=20 as a trailing stop. You run the risk of being stopped out = of a=20 stock that is experiencing a "normal" pullback in its = uptrend.=20 I've uploaded an article on trailing stops written by Mark = Boucher=20 to the CANSIM site. You'll find it at:
 
 http://WallStree= t-LLC.com/pub/TrailingStops.doc
Use a wise approach to setting your stop and you = will be=20 more likely to find that delicate balance between = protecting=20 profits, riding a good stock as long as possible and = protecting=20 against catastrophic loss.
 
Katherine
----- Original Message = - -----=20
From:=20 Dimitri=20 Katsaros
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20
Sent: Tuesday, = April 09,=20 2002 5:29 PM
Subject: = [CANSLIM]=20 NVR

Thank you all for the advice on NVR... = after=20 hearing
all that has been said and looking at the = chart,=20 I'm
going to take Katherine Malm's advice by putting=20 a
trailing stop. Should I do it at 8% or perhaps = larger
to=20 weather out any=20 = volatility?

Thanks
Dimitri

=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D
Quiquid=20 latine dictum sit altum=20 = viditur

__________________________________________________
Do=20 You Yahoo!?
Yahoo! Tax Center - online filing with=20 TurboTax
http://taxes.yahoo.com/

-
= - -To=20 subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com"
-In= =20 the email body, write "subscribe canslim" = or
-"unsubscribe=20 canslim".  Do not use quotes in your=20 = email.
- ------=_NextPart_000_002D_01C1E0A1.1D5D6120-- - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 10 Apr 2002 21:25:55 EDT From: AlpineTap34@aol.com Subject: [CANSLIM] CNTL Hello, Still new here and trying to get a better grasp of what ya'll look at. One that came across my radar today is CNTL....Cantel Medical. The weekly chart is very nice....maybe a deep cup? Does anyone have any thoughts or comments? Thanks for the help - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 10 Apr 2002 21:47:33 EDT From: Chazmoore@aol.com Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] CNTL - --part1_167.beea967.29e64535_boundary Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII" Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit To get you started the left side of a cup could be the $30.00 high on June 11, 2001, with the low of the cup $20.65 on August 10, 2001, making the midpoint about $25.00. With today's close at $28.00 one would expect the handle to form any day now. You may or may not have a c/h formation but if you do it should be evident shortly. For the last 9 out of 10 days volume has exceeded the daily average and that is good news, indicating someone is pushing the stock. On the negative side the Industry Group is in the bottom half of all groups. Fundamentals look pretty good with 21% Return on Equity and no debt. Good luck. Charley - --part1_167.beea967.29e64535_boundary Content-Type: text/html; charset="US-ASCII" Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit To get you started the left side of a cup could be the $30.00 high on June 11, 2001, with the low of the cup $20.65 on August 10, 2001, making the midpoint about $25.00. With today's close at $28.00 one would expect the handle to form any day now. You may or may not have a c/h formation but if you do it should be evident shortly. For the last 9 out of 10 days volume has exceeded the daily average and that is good news, indicating someone is pushing the stock. On the negative side the Industry Group is in the bottom half of all groups. Fundamentals look pretty good with 21% Return on Equity and no debt. Good luck. Charley - --part1_167.beea967.29e64535_boundary-- - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 10 Apr 2002 20:33:05 -0600 From: "Patrick Wahl" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] CNTL Not a buy now, not really in a base, short term at least, but long term view looks ok, you are probably correct about the weekly view. Had a nice acceleration in earnings the last two quarters, but from what I can figure out that is due to an acquisition, so hard to tell how fast earnings are growing from business gains. Prior to that acquisition things looked pretty bland. Not sure what the conclusion is, I'd probably wait to see how things go. On 10 Apr 2002 at 21:25, AlpineTap34@aol.com wrote: > Hello, > > Still new here and trying to get a better grasp of what ya'll look at. One > that came across my radar today is CNTL....Cantel Medical. The weekly chart > is very nice....maybe a deep cup? Does anyone have any thoughts or comments? > > Thanks for the help > > > - > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 10 Apr 2002 23:27:02 -0400 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Breakouts digest version was discontinued many months ago, Warren. Tom Worley stkguru@bellsouth.net AIM: TexWorley - ----- Original Message ----- From: "Warren Keuffel" To: ; Sent: Monday, April 08, 2002 11:20 AM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Breakouts Ask Jeff to put you in Digest mode. That way you will get one message a day, containing all the message for that day. (Actually, not quite -- when the size of accumulated messages grows past a predetermined size, a digest message is sent out. So if there is heavy traffic you may get more than one digest message a day. But if there is only one message that day you will still get a digest. containing that message.) HTH. Warren Marty wrote: >I just signed up and been boomed with over 80 email in two days is there a >news group I can go to read these post? I sure would like to follow along >but this is a little too time consuming. > >Please respond back to this email I had to unsubscribe canslim. > >Thanks > >Marty > >----- Original Message ----- >From: "Novdust" >To: >Sent: Sunday, April 07, 2002 11:17 AM >Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Breakouts > >>When I am talking about low volume, I am not saying less than the average >>shares per day traded but less than a 50 percent increase in volume the >> >day > >>of the breakout. Their example was pretty good in the IC article, >> >especially > >>condsidering what JDSU did following that breakout. I think DGX would be >>another good recent example. It seems to be holding up well after its low >>volume breakout. The day after breakout, it showed a nice surge in >> >volume. > >>I think it is another good educational piece. >>----- Original Message ----- >>From: "Tom Worley" >>To: >>Sent: Sunday, April 07, 2002 12:06 PM >>Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Breakouts >> >> >>>In theory, a low volume b/o can work. Problem is, if you are following >>> >>even >> >>>the more basic precepts of CANSLIM, you would still be on the sidelines >>>watching it happening. >>> >>>Tom Worley >>>stkguru@bellsouth.net >>>AIM: TexWorley >>>----- Original Message ----- >>>From: "Duke Miller" >>>To: >>>Sent: Sunday, April 07, 2002 12:52 PM >>>Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] Breakouts >>> >>> >>>Isn't "low volume breakout" an oxymoron? >>> >>>I was taken aback by this IC article, but chalked it up to the fact they >>>probably just didn't have anything else to write about! >>> >>>Duke >>> >>>-----Original Message----- >>>From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com >>>[mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com] On Behalf Of Novdust >>>Sent: Friday, April 05, 2002 8:44 PM >>>To: canslim@lists.xmission.com >>>Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Breakouts >>> >>> >>>Remember reading about the breakouts a couple messages ago. Good >>>Investors Corner in IBD monday on low-volume breakouts. Basically, it >>>says that they can work, but to only take a portion of your position and >>>see if it follows through with a high volume day. I also remember >>>reading an Investor's Corner not to long ago saying a breakout can work >>>if their is higher volume for the week when it breaks out. I remember >>>they used DGX about a month ago when it broke out. >>>----- Original Message ----- >>>From: "Mo" >>>To: >>>Sent: Friday, April 05, 2002 7:28 PM >>>Subject: [CANSLIM] Mergers and Acquisitions >>> >>> >>>>Reminds me of the fictional merger that Scott Adams >>>>used in the now defunct animated Dilbert television >>>>series: >>>> >>>>PATHWAY ELECTRONICS merged with E-TEC SYSTEMS >>>>to create >>>>PATHE-TEC SYSTEMS >>>> >>>>Regards, >>>>Mo >>>> >>>>__________________________________________________ >>>>Do You Yahoo!? >>>>Yahoo! Tax Center - online filing with TurboTax >>>>http://taxes.yahoo.com/ >>>> >>>>- >>>>-To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" >>>>-In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or -"unsubscribe >>>>canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. >>>> >>>- >>>-To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" >>>-In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or >>>-"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. >>> >>> >>> >>>- >>>-To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" >>>-In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or >>>-"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. >>> >>> >>> >>> >>>- >>>-To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" >>>-In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or >>>-"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. >>> >>- >>-To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" >>-In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or >>-"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. >> > >- >-To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" >-In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or >-"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. > > > - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 11 Apr 2002 00:58:32 -0400 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] M for Market I don't know much about timing of the markets, never did well at that. So just focused on trying to buy stocks with solid fundies, and looking like they deserved higher valuations by CANSLIM measures. After four days on the road, mostly out of touch with what the US and global markets were doing and with total neglect of my investments, aside from the little I was able to glean from CNN (they never showed a single quote on any stock I owned, guess they were all too insignificant), I was understandably pleased tonight to check where I stood thru Wednesday's close from last Friday's close: IRA - up 0.9% 401K - up 0.4% (big winner was my new investment in the small cap fund, up 2%, but the other three funds were up as well) margin acct - up 9.5% (haven't yet had the time to figure out why) I don't think this makes me a champion stock picker, just one not focused on the short term, but rather the long term with some intermediate term considerations. Seems like I need to apply less obsession, and more benign neglect, to my investment practices. Tom Worley stkguru@bellsouth.net AIM: TexWorley - ----- Original Message ----- From: "Hill, Ernie" To: Sent: Tuesday, April 09, 2002 2:33 PM Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] M for Market Dave you are right, but! Part of my recent research was to do just that, beat the market with those very few companies that buck the trend. Here is the rub, at least what I found with the samplings that I was working with. Even when you can get a good entry point you can easily get whipsawed out of your position when the market takes one of it's quick drops. The 8% stop loss rule is applicable to CANSLIM when M is operating in uptrend mode. Often the very stocks that buck M while it is on its way down are very volatile because of the condition of M. Two bad days in a row for M and you could easily be stopped out of your position only to see the market stabilize and then see your prize stock take off without you. Unless you are a champion stock picker the odds are really stacked against you. I of course am not that smart and too hardheaded to learn from others, so instead I paid for my education. The main thing I learned from my research of my investments over the past year and other stocks with CANSLIM qualities during the same timeframe, is this; the stocks that made money did so while the market was moving up, and the ones that lost money did so while the market was moving down. Granted some of these stocks when up while the market was resting or dropping only a little, but invariably the market would have a one or two day sharp drop and I would be stopped out. That's when I became very focused on timing the short term (one week to two month) moves of the market. I have found that you can beat the longer term trend of the market with top quality stocks if you only hold them for a short period of time while the market is moving up. Of course timing the short term moves of the market is no easy task either. Bottom line its easy to look at charts of stocks that have beaten the market over the past two years, its another thing entirely to have been able to enter those stocks and not have gotten stopped out unless you are willing to use wider stop loss points, which can become very expensive when you are wrong. Caveat emptor. E E -----Original Message----- From: Davellil5@aol.com [mailto:Davellil5@aol.com] Sent: Tuesday, April 09, 2002 12:14 PM To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Subject: [CANSLIM] M for Market Recent email in our group indicates that one should never, never, buy a stock in a dead market. This rule is based on the unstated premise that no stock can ever buck the market -- or that there's no way to identify a stock that has a good chance of bucking the market. So, in a dead market, one should always stay in cash. Yet we've all seen the charts of hundreds of stocks that could, and did, buck the spooky market of the past two years. Our problem, friends, is how to spot those stocks before they rise out of reach, not to moan about the lousy market. What should we be looking for? One type of Company whose stock can buck this dead market -- I've observed - -- is a Company in a niche business. Usually, this kind of Company doesn't even belong in its own industry group -- so it may buck its group as well as the market as a whole. I look for those. Purpose of this email is to pick y'all's brains. What other types of Companies have any of you noticed with a propensity for bucking a dead market. This market may stay dead for awhile yet. Let's pool, our brains on what to look for. I hope I get avalanched on this one Regards to all, Dave - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". 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