From: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com (canslim-digest) To: canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Subject: canslim-digest V2 #2352 Reply-To: canslim Sender: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Errors-To: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Precedence: bulk Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable X-No-Archive: yes canslim-digest Tuesday, April 23 2002 Volume 02 : Number 2352 In this issue: Re: "M" (was Re: [CANSLIM] S&P 500 forecast) ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Date: Tue, 23 Apr 2002 15:12:32 -0500 From: "david frank" Subject: Re: "M" (was Re: [CANSLIM] S&P 500 forecast) This is a multi-part message in MIME format. - ------=_NextPart_000_016F_01C1EAD9.4A87C860 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable MessageGoodbye ftd-comp just went under last week's rally low with = distrbution. not bearish or bullish-M tells the story. too many fortune = tellers. small cap stocks-if one has money needs to buy thousand of = shares-try getting out one of those low volume stocks when it turns = around-your large profits dry up like the texas weather. david ----- Original Message -----=20 From: Duke Miller=20 To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20 Sent: Tuesday, April 23, 2002 2:32 PM Subject: RE: "M" (was Re: [CANSLIM] S&P 500 forecast) Ian: I'm as far from a physicist as one can possibly be, but.... "Almost perfectly horizontal," maybe, but if I place a marble at any = point along the 200DMA of all three averages it will still roll from = left to right, as in DOWN. At no point along that line will it ever = incur ANY resistance from gravity, as in slope up. One may respond, = "Duke, get serious, the 200 DMA can still be sloping down as the market = turns up." Fine. Which leads me to ask, "If it's anathema to buy a = stock languishing below its 200DMA (like two out of three of our indexes = are at this moment), why then, if M is so important would I ever buy in = a market under its 200DMA?" I find your mention of the sectors equally challenging. Looking at = the leading sectors in this a.m.'s IBD I notice the Russell 2000 is a = "sector" (thought it was an index, based on company size), as is the = AMEX. =20 So this begs the question: What the in the name of WON is M, anyway? = And if sectors are what's important, where's the list of companies in = each sector (not just the leading ones), and what impact does a stock's = industry have on this? I'm exhausted! =20 Duke -----Original Message----- From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com = [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com] On Behalf Of Ian Sent: Tuesday, April 23, 2002 2:53 PM To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Subject: Re: "M" (was Re: [CANSLIM] S&P 500 forecast) David: I've been thinking a lot about that, and I wonder if it isn't just a = subtle change in thinking about 'M'. Clearly a real broad bear market = will work against you - when almost everything is going down. When the = indexes are all going down hard, and folks are cringing every day at the = open - terrified we'll see another 50 point NAZ drop, and 200 point DOW = drop. We have had a lot of that since March 2000 - where were no safe = havens in any growth stocks. However, in a period like the one we are in now, where the 'big' = indexes appear to be range bound, and the smaller indexes are in an = uptrend (midcap, smallcap indexes such as the Russell 2000) there is no = longer the fear of an ebb tide leaving every ship and boat dry.=20 In a way, it isn't unlike the sector strength investing that WON = espouses. Going with the indexes that are strong isn't a lot different = than going with the sectors that are strong. From the fall of '98 to the = spring of '00 we saw the same thing with the NYSE vs the NASDAQ - = whether or not we were in a bull or bear was dependent on your = perspective at the time. So maybe instead of just looking at the DOW, S&P and NASDAQ for = distribution, bottoms and FTD's, the analysis of 'M' needs to be taken = one index at a time? Nobody seemed to care about the DOW or NYSE during = the tech bubble bull (the S&P became heavily overweight tech, so it was = much more bullish) - so there appears to be a precedent for the = selective use of indexes when 'declaring a bull'. For me personally, I tend to become bullish or bearish based on = personal observations: I regular scan my lists of every US stock with = strong revenue and EPS growth (non-cyclicals). First, I want to see that = it is a decent-sized list, and that it appears to be growing. Second, I = continually observe the charts/tickers in an attempt to identify whether = or not the market is rewarding these companies as a group. IMHO, since = March 2000, there has been no clear trend until about 6 weeks ago (and = that trend wasn't clearly visible to me until about 3 weeks ago). Ian PS - Bill: The NASDAQ has been in a downtrend for nearly 4 months = now. Just because it is above its 9/11 low, doesn't mean 'it is rising'. = The slope of all of its moving averages is down. The DOW is actually = quite interesting here: the slope of all of its moving averages is = almost perfectly horizontal. ----- Original Message -----=20 From: david frank=20 To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20 Sent: Tuesday, April 23, 2002 9:59 AM Subject: Re: "M" (was Re: [CANSLIM] S&P 500 forecast) Ian, what do you suggest that the new revise CANSLIM definition = be??????????????? david ----- Original Message -----=20 From: Ian=20 To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20 Sent: Tuesday, April 23, 2002 11:45 AM Subject: Re: "M" (was Re: [CANSLIM] S&P 500 forecast) I can't help thinking that we are in the period that represents = "The Great CANSLIM Contradiction": 1. M must be rising 2. We must be only buying stocks with strongly rising revenues = and EPS 3. We shouldn't be buying 'yesteryears winners', whose revenues = and EPS are declining 4. The indexes are made up of '3' 5. 'M' is defined as '4', the indexes Ian ----- Original Message -----=20 From: Duke Miller=20 To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20 Sent: Tuesday, April 23, 2002 6:13 AM Subject: RE: "M" (was Re: [CANSLIM] S&P 500 forecast) Since (and I agree) M is the most important letter in the = alphabet, and since it's as choppy and ill-defined as it is, and since = it is often ignored and overlooked, then I only have two questions? =20 1) What's to discuss? 2) Why are you fully invested under this cloud? WON says when M's like this the best tactic and virtue is = patience. I couldn't agree more. I continue to lurk and look at the = future potentials. Duke -----Original Message----- From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com = [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com] On Behalf Of Tom Worley Sent: Tuesday, April 23, 2002 8:42 AM To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Subject: "M" (was Re: [CANSLIM] S&P 500 forecast) I would like to see some serious discussion here on "M". It = is the most important of the seven letters in CANSLIM, and is so often = ignored or overlooked.=20 The small caps continue to work for me, and I remain fully = invested in all accounts. Money appears to be shifting back from value = to growth. Volume appears to be picking up. But because I don't focus on = the mid caps, I often wonder what may also be happening there. Tom Worley stkguru@bellsouth.net AIM: TexWorley ----- Original Message -----=20 From: Hill, Ernie=20 To: 'canslim@lists.xmission.com'=20 Sent: Monday, April 22, 2002 12:07 PM Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] S&P 500 forecast Hi Tom, =20 It is purely my version of TA. It has really helped me in my = trading. =20 I would not present these forecasts to the group if I were = not confident in them. My purpose in posting these forecasts is to give = back some value to a group that has given me value. Determining market = direction has not been very easy to do lately. It is my hope that as = some group members gain some confidence that I may actually know what I = am talking about that they could use these forecasts as another tool to = benefit them in their CANSLIM investments. =20 E =20 PS: Today is certainly not adding to my credibility J =20 -----Original Message----- From: Tom Worley [mailto:stkguru@bellsouth.net] Sent: Monday, April 22, 2002 7:16 AM To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] S&P 500 forecast =20 I don't understand your reasoning for this, Ernie, but I = would certainly cheer 1238 on the S&P500 by then. =20 Tom Worley stkguru@bellsouth.net AIM: TexWorley ----- Original Message -----=20 From: Hill, Ernie=20 To: CANSLIM=20 Sent: Saturday, April 20, 2002 10:08 PM Subject: [CANSLIM] S&P 500 forecast =20 At this point in time I have two high probability = projections for the next major turning point in the S&P 500. The highest = probability is for a turning point on May 21, 2002 at a price level of = 1200. The second highest probability is for a turning point on May 22, = 2002 at a price level of 1238. As we approach these dates one of these = scenarios should emerge as the most likely candidate. =20 E = ****************************************************************** This email and any files transmitted with it from the ElPaso = Corporation are confidential and intended solely for the=20 use of the individual or entity to whom they are addressed.=20 If you have received this email in error please notify the=20 sender. = ****************************************************************** = ****************************************************************** This email and any files transmitted with it from the ElPaso = Corporation are confidential and intended solely for the=20 use of the individual or entity to whom they are addressed.=20 If you have received this email in error please notify the=20 sender. = ****************************************************************** - ------=_NextPart_000_016F_01C1EAD9.4A87C860 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable Message=
Goodbye ftd-comp just went under last = week's rally=20 low with distrbution. not bearish or bullish-M tells the story. too = many=20 fortune tellers.  small cap stocks-if one has money needs to buy = thousand=20 of shares-try getting out one of those low volume stocks when it turns=20 around-your large profits dry up like the texas = weather. david
----- Original Message -----
From:=20 Duke=20 Miller
Sent: Tuesday, April 23, 2002 = 2:32=20 PM
Subject: RE: "M" (was Re: = [CANSLIM]=20 S&P 500 forecast)

Ian:
 
I'm as far = from a=20 physicist as one can possibly be, but....
 
"Almost = perfectly=20 horizontal," maybe, but if I place a marble at any point along the = 200DMA of=20 all three averages it will still roll from left to right, as in=20 DOWN.  At no point along that line will it ever = incur ANY=20 resistance from gravity, as in slope up.  One may respond, "Duke, = get=20 serious, the 200 DMA can still be sloping down as the market turns = up." =20 Fine.  Which leads me to ask, "If it's anathema to buy a stock=20 languishing below its 200DMA (like two out of three of our indexes are = at this=20 moment), why then, if M is so important would I ever buy in a market = under its=20 200DMA?"
 
I find your = mention of=20 the sectors equally challenging.  Looking at the = leading=20 sectors in this a.m.'s IBD I notice the Russell 2000 is a "sector" = (thought it=20 was an index, based on company size), as is the AMEX. =20
 
So this begs = the=20 question:  What the in the name of WON is M, anyway?  And if = sectors=20 are what's important, where's the list of companies in each sector = (not just=20 the leading ones), and what impact does a stock's industry have on=20 this?
 
I'm = exhausted! =20
 
Duke
 
-----Original Message-----
From:=20 owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com = [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]=20 On Behalf Of Ian
Sent: Tuesday, April 23, 2002 2:53 = PM
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
Subject: Re: = "M" (was=20 Re: [CANSLIM] S&P 500 forecast)

David:
 
I've been thinking a lot about that, and I = wonder if it=20 isn't just a subtle change in thinking about 'M'. Clearly a real = broad bear=20 market will work against you - when almost everything is going down. = When=20 the indexes are all going down hard, and folks are cringing every = day at the=20 open - terrified we'll see another 50 point NAZ drop, and 200 point = DOW=20 drop. We have had a lot of that since March 2000 - where were no = safe havens=20 in any growth stocks.
 
However, in a period like the one we are in now, = where the=20 'big' indexes appear to be range bound, and the smaller indexes are = in an=20 uptrend (midcap, smallcap indexes such as the Russell 2000) there is = no=20 longer the fear of an ebb tide leaving every ship and boat dry.=20
 
In a way, it isn't unlike the sector strength = investing=20 that WON espouses. Going with the indexes that are strong isn't a = lot=20 different than going with the sectors that are strong. From the fall = of '98=20 to the spring of '00 we saw the same thing with the NYSE vs the = NASDAQ -=20 whether or not we were in a bull or bear was dependent on your=20 perspective at the time.
 
So maybe instead of just looking at the DOW, = S&P and=20 NASDAQ for distribution, bottoms and FTD's, the analysis of 'M' = needs to be=20 taken one index at a time? Nobody seemed to care about the DOW or = NYSE=20 during the tech bubble bull (the S&P became heavily overweight = tech, so=20 it was much more bullish) - so there appears to be a = precedent for the=20 selective use of indexes when 'declaring a bull'.
 
 
For me personally, I tend to become bullish or = bearish=20 based on personal observations: I regular scan my lists of = every US=20 stock with strong revenue and EPS growth = (non-cyclicals). First, I want=20 to see that it is a decent-sized list, and that it appears to be = growing.=20 Second, I continually observe the charts/tickers in = an attempt to=20 identify whether or not the market is rewarding these companies as a = group.=20 IMHO, since March 2000, there has been no clear trend until about 6 = weeks=20 ago (and that trend wasn't clearly visible to me until about 3 weeks = ago).
 
Ian
 
PS - Bill: The NASDAQ has been in a downtrend = for nearly 4=20 months now. Just because it is above its 9/11 low, doesn't mean 'it = is=20 rising'. The slope of all of its moving averages is down. The DOW is = actually quite interesting here: the slope of all of its moving = averages is=20 almost perfectly horizontal.
 
 
 
----- Original Message -----
From:=20 david frank
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com= =20
Sent: Tuesday, April 23, = 2002 9:59=20 AM
Subject: Re: "M" (was Re: = [CANSLIM]=20 S&P 500 forecast)

Ian, what do you suggest that the = new revise=20 CANSLIM definition be??????????????? david
----- Original Message ----- =
From:=20 Ian =
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com= =20
Sent: Tuesday, April 23, = 2002 11:45=20 AM
Subject: Re: "M" (was Re: = [CANSLIM]=20 S&P 500 forecast)

I can't help thinking that we are in the = period that=20 represents "The Great CANSLIM Contradiction":
 
1. M must be rising
2. We must be only buying stocks with = strongly rising=20 revenues and EPS
3. We shouldn't be buying 'yesteryears = winners', whose=20 revenues and EPS are declining
4. The indexes are made up of = '3'
5. 'M' is defined as '4', the = indexes
 
Ian
 
----- Original Message ----- =
From:=20 Duke Miller =
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com= =20
Sent: Tuesday, April = 23, 2002=20 6:13 AM
Subject: RE: "M" (was = Re:=20 [CANSLIM] S&P 500 forecast)

Since = (and I=20 agree) M is the most important letter in the alphabet,=20 and since it's as choppy and ill-defined as it is, and = since it=20 is often ignored and overlooked, then I only have two = questions? =20
 
1) = What's to=20 discuss?
 
2) = Why are you=20 fully invested under this cloud?
 
WON = says when M's=20 like this the best tactic and virtue is patience.  I = couldn't=20 agree more.  I continue to lurk and look at the future=20 potentials.
 
Duke
 
 
-----Original = Message-----
From:=20 owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com=20 [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com] On Behalf Of = Tom=20 Worley
Sent: Tuesday, April 23, 2002 8:42 = AM
To:=20 canslim@lists.xmission.com
Subject: "M" (was Re: = [CANSLIM]=20 S&P 500 forecast)

I would like to see some serious = discussion=20 here on "M". It is the most important of the seven letters = in=20 CANSLIM, and is so often ignored or overlooked. =
 
The small caps continue to work for = me, and I=20 remain fully invested in all accounts. Money appears to be = shifting=20 back from value to growth. Volume appears to be picking up. = But=20 because I don't focus on the mid caps, I often wonder what = may also=20 be happening there.
 
Tom Worley
stkguru@bellsouth.net
AIM:=20 TexWorley
----- Original Message ----- =
From: Hill, Ernie
Sent: Monday, April 22, 2002 12:07 PM
Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] S&P 500 = forecast

Hi=20 Tom,

 

It=20 is purely my version of TA. It has really helped me in my=20 trading.

 

I=20 would not present these forecasts to the group if I were not = confident in them. My purpose in posting these forecasts is = to give=20 back some value to a group that has given me value. = Determining=20 market direction has not been very easy to do lately. It is = my hope=20 that as some group members gain some confidence that I may = actually=20 know what I am talking about that they could use these = forecasts as=20 another tool to benefit them in their CANSLIM=20 investments.

 

E

 

PS:=20 Today is certainly not adding to my credibility=20 J

 

-----Original=20 Message-----
From:=20 Tom Worley [mailto:stkguru@bellsouth.net]
Sent: Monday, April = 22, 2002=20 7:16 AM
To:=20 canslim@lists.xmission.com
Subject: Re: = [CANSLIM] S&P=20 500 forecast

 

I don't=20 understand your reasoning for this, Ernie, but I would = certainly=20 cheer 1238 on the S&P500 by then.

 

Tom Worley
stkguru@bellsouth.net
AIM:=20 TexWorley

-----=20 Original Message -----=20

From: = Hill, Ernie=20

To: = CANSLIM=20

Sent: = Saturday,=20 April 20, 2002 10:08 PM

Subject: = [CANSLIM]=20 S&P 500 forecast

 

At this=20 point in time I have two high probability projections for = the next=20 major turning point in the S&P 500. The highest=20 probability is for a turning point on May 21, 2002 at a price level of = 1200. The=20 second highest probability is for a turning point on = May 22, 2002 = at a price=20 level of 1238. As we approach these dates one of these = scenarios=20 should emerge as the most likely = candidate.

 

E



*****************************************************************= *
This=20 email and any files transmitted with it from the ElPaso=20
Corporation=20 are confidential and intended solely for the=20
use=20 of the individual or entity to whom they are addressed.=20
If=20 you have received this email in error please notify the=20
sender.
*****************************************************************= *



********************************************************= **********
This=20 email and any files transmitted with it from the ElPaso=20
Corporation are confidential and intended solely for the =
use=20 of the individual or entity to whom they are addressed. =
If you=20 have received this email in error please notify the=20 =
sender.
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