From: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com (canslim-digest) To: canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Subject: canslim-digest V2 #2372 Reply-To: canslim Sender: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Errors-To: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Precedence: bulk Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable X-No-Archive: yes canslim-digest Tuesday, April 30 2002 Volume 02 : Number 2372 In this issue: Re: [CANSLIM] Head & shoulders Re: [CANSLIM] your use of IBD daily table [CANSLIM] PMFG Re: [CANSLIM] PMFG RE: [CANSLIM] PMFG RE: [CANSLIM] PMFG Re: [CANSLIM] PMFG RE: [CANSLIM] Head & shoulders [CANSLIM] Tools use. RE: [CANSLIM] M where now? Correction Delete previous ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Date: Tue, 30 Apr 2002 11:16:24 EDT From: AlpineTap34@aol.com Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Head & shoulders "These days anything goes alot of the old technicals have lost effectiveness." With that statement, I'd be curious what technicals you're referring to.....mine keep me in the game. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 30 Apr 2002 08:40:09 -0700 From: "Bill Triffet" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] your use of IBD daily table I "used" to use them to sometimes confirm breakouts (of the issues that were valid canslim) of my previous days buy. Many if not most lately stocks though now come with ragged patterns - deep dips etc. In addition most are extended (if they are even a valid issue at all) from a valid pivot - a lot of gap ups on the open. Lately I find it to be a precursor to a severe pullback. WAY to many folks look at it now. I almost consider it lately to be a sell indicator for very short term (several day) trades by the momentum only traders. I believe in a bad market once it's listed there, many times it's too late. In a good canslim market, I just use it for confirming my buys - that's all. I much prefer the Weekend Review for stock selection and review. Can you tell I'm tired of this market? (g) - -Bill Triffet - ----- Original Message ----- From: "Bill Wasson" To: "canslim" Sent: Tuesday, April 30, 2002 6:48 AM Subject: [CANSLIM] your use of IBD daily table > I'm asking again, if anyone will share their thoughts > on how they use the IBD Daily Table "Where The Big > Money's Flowing Now" when selecting stocks for > purchase .... and do the stocks displayed therein > appear to be better short term, almost day trade > types, purchases to you? ..... Thanks for any thoughts > any of you choose to share. > > __________________________________________________ > Do You Yahoo!? > Yahoo! Health - your guide to health and wellness > http://health.yahoo.com > > - > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 30 Apr 2002 09:28:09 -0700 From: Ian Subject: [CANSLIM] PMFG Hi all: I thought I would throw out PMFG as a CANSLIM watchlist candidate, based on the strength of their historical and current revenue and EPS growth. They announced earnings today - http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/020430/datu033_1.html - another strong Q, showing 58% revenue growth, and 167% income growth, and $0.38 EPS. The caveat in todays report is the declining backlog (69 M to 63M) from last Q. They are a 'traditional' CANSLIM candidate, in that there are just 3,000,000 shares outstanding. The 2-year weekly chart is starting to look interesting - the daily chart appears random, as the stock is highly illiquid, volatile and subject to excessive spreads. IF AND ONLY IF a significant (20000+) change in average daily volume is sustained, then it would meet all of my personal cirteria as an exceptional CANSLIM candidate. But that is a big 'IF' - it really needs a quantum change in volume - right now, it could easily collapse with one block seller. PMFG is one to add to the watchlist - looking for a sustained daily volume increase, and a price move up through resistance levels in the $18-$23 area. Ian - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 30 Apr 2002 14:01:56 -0400 From: "J. Lobatto" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] PMFG Ian, PMFG looks interesting. Taking a look at the chart which is an extended downward sloping base, where would you set the pivot point; back at the July high of 23.75 or sometime after that at a lower price? Jon - ----- Original Message ----- From: "Ian" To: Sent: Tuesday, April 30, 2002 12:28 PM Subject: [CANSLIM] PMFG > Hi all: > > I thought I would throw out PMFG as a CANSLIM watchlist candidate, based on > the strength of their historical and current revenue and EPS growth. They > announced earnings today - > http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/020430/datu033_1.html - another strong Q, > showing 58% revenue growth, and 167% income growth, and $0.38 EPS. The > caveat in todays report is the declining backlog (69 M to 63M) from last Q. > > They are a 'traditional' CANSLIM candidate, in that there are just 3,000,000 > shares outstanding. The 2-year weekly chart is starting to look > interesting - the daily chart appears random, as the stock is highly > illiquid, volatile and subject to excessive spreads. > > IF AND ONLY IF a significant (20000+) change in average daily volume is > sustained, then it would meet all of my personal cirteria as an exceptional > CANSLIM candidate. But that is a big 'IF' - it really needs a quantum change > in volume - right now, it could easily collapse with one block seller. > > PMFG is one to add to the watchlist - looking for a sustained daily volume > increase, and a price move up through resistance levels in the $18-$23 area. > > > Ian > > > > > - > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 30 Apr 2002 14:18:07 -0400 From: "Cefaloni, John L Jr. [AMSTA-AR-WEA]" Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] PMFG One comment about the chart: PMFG is trading below it's 200 DMA. I believe that disqualifies it as a CANSLIM breakout candidate. John C. - -----Original Message----- From: J. Lobatto [mailto:jlobatto@nyc.rr.com] Sent: Tuesday, April 30, 2002 2:02 PM To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] PMFG Ian, PMFG looks interesting. Taking a look at the chart which is an extended downward sloping base, where would you set the pivot point; back at the July high of 23.75 or sometime after that at a lower price? Jon - ----- Original Message ----- From: "Ian" To: Sent: Tuesday, April 30, 2002 12:28 PM Subject: [CANSLIM] PMFG > Hi all: > > I thought I would throw out PMFG as a CANSLIM watchlist candidate, based on > the strength of their historical and current revenue and EPS growth. They > announced earnings today - > http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/020430/datu033_1.html - another strong Q, > showing 58% revenue growth, and 167% income growth, and $0.38 EPS. The > caveat in todays report is the declining backlog (69 M to 63M) from last Q. > > They are a 'traditional' CANSLIM candidate, in that there are just 3,000,000 > shares outstanding. The 2-year weekly chart is starting to look > interesting - the daily chart appears random, as the stock is highly > illiquid, volatile and subject to excessive spreads. > > IF AND ONLY IF a significant (20000+) change in average daily volume is > sustained, then it would meet all of my personal cirteria as an exceptional > CANSLIM candidate. But that is a big 'IF' - it really needs a quantum change > in volume - right now, it could easily collapse with one block seller. > > PMFG is one to add to the watchlist - looking for a sustained daily volume > increase, and a price move up through resistance levels in the $18-$23 area. > > > Ian > > > > > - > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 30 Apr 2002 08:33:15 -1000 From: "Mike Gibbons" Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] PMFG I believe the pivot would be the intraday high of 21.60 on 4/29. Aloha, Mike Gibbons Proactive Technologies, LLC http://www.proactech.com - -----Original Message----- From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of Cefaloni, John L Jr. [AMSTA-AR-WEA] Sent: Tuesday, April 30, 2002 8:18 AM To: 'canslim@lists.xmission.com' Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] PMFG One comment about the chart: PMFG is trading below it's 200 DMA. I believe that disqualifies it as a CANSLIM breakout candidate. John C. - -----Original Message----- From: J. Lobatto [mailto:jlobatto@nyc.rr.com] Sent: Tuesday, April 30, 2002 2:02 PM To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] PMFG Ian, PMFG looks interesting. Taking a look at the chart which is an extended downward sloping base, where would you set the pivot point; back at the July high of 23.75 or sometime after that at a lower price? Jon - ----- Original Message ----- From: "Ian" To: Sent: Tuesday, April 30, 2002 12:28 PM Subject: [CANSLIM] PMFG > Hi all: > > I thought I would throw out PMFG as a CANSLIM watchlist candidate, based on > the strength of their historical and current revenue and EPS growth. They > announced earnings today - > http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/020430/datu033_1.html - another strong Q, > showing 58% revenue growth, and 167% income growth, and $0.38 EPS. The > caveat in todays report is the declining backlog (69 M to 63M) from last Q. > > They are a 'traditional' CANSLIM candidate, in that there are just 3,000,000 > shares outstanding. The 2-year weekly chart is starting to look > interesting - the daily chart appears random, as the stock is highly > illiquid, volatile and subject to excessive spreads. > > IF AND ONLY IF a significant (20000+) change in average daily volume is > sustained, then it would meet all of my personal cirteria as an exceptional > CANSLIM candidate. But that is a big 'IF' - it really needs a quantum change > in volume - right now, it could easily collapse with one block seller. > > PMFG is one to add to the watchlist - looking for a sustained daily volume > increase, and a price move up through resistance levels in the $18-$23 area. > > > Ian > > > > > - > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 30 Apr 2002 14:31:03 -0400 From: "J. Lobatto" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] PMFG Mike, Just curious as to how you arrive at that pivot point figure? Jon - ----- Original Message ----- From: "Mike Gibbons" To: Sent: Tuesday, April 30, 2002 2:33 PM Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] PMFG > I believe the pivot would be the intraday high of 21.60 on 4/29. > > Aloha, > > Mike Gibbons > Proactive Technologies, LLC > http://www.proactech.com > > > -----Original Message----- > From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com > [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of Cefaloni, John L > Jr. [AMSTA-AR-WEA] > Sent: Tuesday, April 30, 2002 8:18 AM > To: 'canslim@lists.xmission.com' > Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] PMFG > > > One comment about the chart: PMFG is trading below it's 200 DMA. I believe > that disqualifies it as a CANSLIM breakout candidate. > > John C. > > -----Original Message----- > From: J. Lobatto [mailto:jlobatto@nyc.rr.com] > Sent: Tuesday, April 30, 2002 2:02 PM > To: canslim@lists.xmission.com > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] PMFG > > > Ian, > > PMFG looks interesting. Taking a look at the chart which is an extended > downward sloping base, where would you set the pivot point; back at the July > high of 23.75 or sometime after that at a lower price? > > Jon > ----- Original Message ----- > From: "Ian" > To: > Sent: Tuesday, April 30, 2002 12:28 PM > Subject: [CANSLIM] PMFG > > > > Hi all: > > > > I thought I would throw out PMFG as a CANSLIM watchlist candidate, based > on > > the strength of their historical and current revenue and EPS growth. They > > announced earnings today - > > http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/020430/datu033_1.html - another strong Q, > > showing 58% revenue growth, and 167% income growth, and $0.38 EPS. The > > caveat in todays report is the declining backlog (69 M to 63M) from last > Q. > > > > They are a 'traditional' CANSLIM candidate, in that there are just > 3,000,000 > > shares outstanding. The 2-year weekly chart is starting to look > > interesting - the daily chart appears random, as the stock is highly > > illiquid, volatile and subject to excessive spreads. > > > > IF AND ONLY IF a significant (20000+) change in average daily volume is > > sustained, then it would meet all of my personal cirteria as an > exceptional > > CANSLIM candidate. But that is a big 'IF' - it really needs a quantum > change > > in volume - right now, it could easily collapse with one block seller. > > > > PMFG is one to add to the watchlist - looking for a sustained daily volume > > increase, and a price move up through resistance levels in the $18-$23 > area. > > > > > > Ian > > > > > > > > > > - > > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" > > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. > > > - > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. > > - > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. > > > - > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 30 Apr 2002 13:43:28 -0500 From: "Hill, Ernie" Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] Head & shoulders Tom assuming we are looking at the same time period and scale I would say yes possibly to the DOW with the left shoulder formed the week of 1-11-02 and the head formed the week of 3-22-02 with the right shoulder yet to form. As for the S&P I don't see it because the left shoulder made the week of 1-11-02 would be higher than the head formed the week of 3-22-02. I am looking at weekly charts for both. If this is not what you are seeing please tell me where you see the left shoulder and head. E - -----Original Message----- From: Tom Worley [mailto:stkguru@bellsouth.net] Sent: Tuesday, April 30, 2002 6:56 AM To: CANSLIM Subject: [CANSLIM] Head & shoulders anyone else besides me seeing a head & shoulders pattern on both NYSE Composite, and S&P500? maybe an earlier stage h&s on the DOW 30 as well? Tom Worley stkguru@bellsouth.net AIM: TexWorley - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ****************************************************************** This email and any files transmitted with it from the ElPaso Corporation are confidential and intended solely for the use of the individual or entity to whom they are addressed. If you have received this email in error please notify the sender. ****************************************************************** - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 30 Apr 2002 18:59:21 +0000 From: majorgenson@attbi.com Subject: [CANSLIM] Tools use. I was wondering what tools people use to keep track of there watch list ect. I just subscribe to IBD and was thinking of using the Advance Analyzer at Ameritrade but find the tool unrealiable for EPS ratings. Has anyone been using TC2000? The $30 a month for the service seems to be reasonable. Does any one use a subscription service? I kinda like http://growthstockanalytics.com/momentum.html Still learning so any info or thoughts would be appriciated Marty - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 30 Apr 2002 14:08:20 -0500 From: "Hill, Ernie" Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] M where now? Correction Delete previous This message is in MIME format. Since your mail reader does not understand this format, some or all of this message may not be legible. - ------_=_NextPart_001_01C1F07A.64453CA0 Content-Type: text/plain Excellent point Dan concerning the .382 retracement, before we can get excited longer term this resistance level would need to be taken out. Your observation about the 50% retracement of the move from 9-21 to 1-4 at the level of 1060.86 may also prove out to be the area from which the rally I am expecting is launched. Because of what I see from several of my indicators it looks like 1033.45 is a higher probability for the turn than is 1060.86. However, 1060.86 is certainly a valid support level from which the turn could occur. Ultimately the market will tell us which level it wants to react from. If the S&P closes today above 1078.96 this would be the confirmation indicator of the turn that I usually look for. However, I would still be skeptical that yesterday was the actual low. It just wouldn't make a complete little technical package from my perspective. The market can be very humbling. What started out as a very high probability call for me has now become a very difficult turning point for me to get a grip on. E - -----Original Message----- From: DanC [mailto:danc@compuall.net] Sent: Tuesday, April 30, 2002 1:40 AM To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] M where now? Correction Delete previous Arrogant? An idiot? Not hardly. Your willingness to put your work out there and let the Market do its humbling bump and grind on you is admirable. I hope you keep posting. Predictions of price and time are fraught with peril. I am more comfortable in trying to figure price levels without the frame of precise time. Fibonacci ratios are interesting. The 1177 resistance level that coincides with the 38.2 retracement from the 3-19 high to the 9-21 low has been intact since 12-02, and seems to be rather substantial. I don't put much importance (hope) in the 9-21 to 1-4, 61.8%, 1033.45 price as it is in the middle of the price rise off the 9-21, and there is not much there to act as support. On the other hand, the 1060.86, 50% retracement, coincides with support built for a few days beginning 10-30. If the 1061 does not act as support, I think there is a good opportunity for the index to revisit the 9-21 low. It is close to support, now, at 1074, (not a Fib number) that may be of importance. And if it does hold, there is the possibility we will stay within this wide trading range bordered by 1177 and 1074 for some time to come. Dan "Hill, Ernie" wrote: Hi Group, When I made my first market forecast to the group back in March part of the reason I chose to make a forecast then was because I had a very reliable forecast to make. Because of the high probability that I saw occurring in the market I chose to make a very precise forecast for maximum effect. At that time I said the market would bottom in the 1070 to 1075 range on the S&P on 4-17-02. I had a high degree of confidence that the market would turn within two days of that date and very close to my projected price range. First the market gave me a head fake with a false turn confirmation, now it has blown up my forecast with today's price action. First the S&P has set a new low for the move, which will now put the eventual turning point outside the maximum range predicted by my model. In addition to that it has surpassed the lowest price level that I had projected for the move. So what does it all mean? For some of you it proves that I am an idiot that got his just due for being arrogant enough to think that he could predict the market. I can accept that criticism; however, from my point of view my missed forecast gives hints to the longer term picture for the rest of the year. For those of you who are still reading here is what I see as the most likely scenario going forward and the implications of the market dropping through and past my projected turning point. First of all the S&P will likely drop to an even lower support level before the turn is eventually made. This support level will continue to drop slightly with each passing day. For tomorrow that level will be 1035.5, if the S&P drops to that level by tomorrow then the market will likely turn from there. Going back to the market low on 9-21-01 the S&P put in a low of 944.75 it then rose to a high of 1176.97 on 1-7-02. 61.8% of that move would be 143.51 points. 61.8% is a key Fibonacci ratio where corrections often find support. Subtracting 143.51 points from the market high of 1176.97 yields a price level of 1033.46. On May 2, 2002 my projected support level for the S&P is 1033.5. Will 5-2-02 be the day this market actually changes trend at least briefly? We'll see. The longer term implications are that the ensuing rally will likely be briefer than previously expected and certainly have a lower price target, maybe even below 1176.97 the current high for the year. If the rally that follows this current decline fails to exceed the current high for the year then we may be looking at a retest of the September lows later in the year. E ****************************************************************** This email and any files transmitted with it from the ElPaso Corporation are confidential and intended solely for the use of the individual or entity to whom they are addressed. If you have received this email in error please notify the sender. ****************************************************************** - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ****************************************************************** This email and any files transmitted with it from the ElPaso Corporation are confidential and intended solely for the use of the individual or entity to whom they are addressed. If you have received this email in error please notify the sender. ****************************************************************** - ------_=_NextPart_001_01C1F07A.64453CA0 Content-Type: text/html Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable

Excellent point Dan concerning the .382 retracement, before we can get excited longer term this resistance level wo= uld need to be taken out. Your observation about the 50% retracement of the move from 9-21 to 1-4 at the level of 1060.86 may also prove out to be the area = from which the rally I am expecting is launched.

 

Because of what I see from several of = my indicators it looks like 1033.45 is a higher probability for the turn than = is 1060.86. However, 1060.86 is certainly a valid support level from which the turn cou= ld occur. Ultimately the market will tell us which level it wants to react fro= m.

 

If the S&P closes today above 1078= .96 this would be the confirmation indicator of the turn that I usually look fo= r. However, I would still be skeptical that yesterday was the actual low. It just would= n't make a complete little technical package from my perspective.

 

The market can be very humbling. What started out as a very high probability call for me has now become a very difficult turning point for me to get a grip on.

 

E

 

-----Original Message-----
From: DanC [mailto:danc@compuall.net]
Sent: Tuesday, April 30, 200= 2 1:40 AM
To: canslim@lists.xmission.c= om
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] M whe= re now? Correction Delete previous

 

Arrogant?  An idiot?  Not hardly. = ; Your willingness to put your work out there and let the Market do its humbling b= ump and
grind on you is admirable.  I hope you keep posting.  Predictions= of price and time are fraught with peril.  I am more
comfortable in trying to figure price levels without the frame of precise t= ime.

Fibonacci ratios are interesting.  The 1177 resistance level that coincides with the 38.2 retracement from the 3-19 hig= h to
the 9-21  low has been intact since 12-02, and seems to be rather substantial.  I don't put much importance (hope) in the
9-21 to 1-4,  61.8%, 1033.45 price as it is in the middle of the price rise off the 9-21, and there is not much there to act as
support.  On the other hand, the 1060.86, 50% retracement, coincides w= ith support built for a few days beginning 10-30.
If the 1061 does not act as support, I think there is a good opportunity for the index to revisit the 9-21 low.  It is close to
support, now, at 1074, (not a Fib number) that may be of importance.  = And if it does hold, there is the possibility we will
stay within this wide trading range bordered by 1177 and 1074 for some time= to come.

Dan

"Hill, Ernie" wrote:

Hi Group,<= /p>

When I made my first market forecas= t to the group back in March part of the reason I chose to make a forecast then = was because I had a very reliable forecast to make. Because of the high probabi= lity that I saw occurring in the market I chose to make a very precise forecast = for maximum effect. At that time I said the market would bottom in the 1070 to = 1075 range on the S&P on 4-17-02. I had a high degree of confidence that the market would turn within two day= s of that date and very close to my projected price range.

First the market gave me a head fak= e with a false turn confirmation, now it has blown up my forecast with today's pri= ce action. First the S&P has set a new low for the move, which will now put the eventual turning point outside the maximum range predicted by my model.= In addition to that it has surpassed the lowest price level that I had project= ed for the move.

So what does it all mean? For some = of you it proves that I am an idiot that got his just due for being arrogant enoug= h to think that he could predict the market. I can accept that criticism; howeve= r, from my point of view my missed forecast gives hints to the longer term pic= ture for the rest of the year. For those of you who are still reading here is wh= at I see as the most likely scenario going forward and the implications of the market dropping through and past my projected turning point. <= o:p>

First of all the S&P will likel= y drop to an even lower support level before the turn is eventually made. This sup= port level will continue to drop slightly with each passing day. For tomorrow th= at level will be 1035.5, if the S&P drops to that level by tomorrow then t= he market will likely turn from there. Going back to the market low on 9-21-01 the S&P put in a low of 944.75 it then rose to a high of 1176.97 on&nbs= p;1-7-02. 61.8% of that move would be 143.51 points. 61.8% is a key Fibonacci ratio w= here corrections often find support. Subtracting 143.51 points from the market h= igh of 1176.97 yields a price level of 1033.46. On May 2, 2002 my projected support level for the S&P is 1033.5. Wi= ll 5-2-02 be the day this market actually changes trend at least briefly? We'll see.<= u1:p>

The longer term implications are th= at the ensuing rally will likely be briefer than previously expected and certainly have a lower price target, maybe even below 1176.97 the current high for the year. If the rally that follows this current decline fails to exceed the current high for the year then we may be looking at a retest of the Septemb= er lows later in the year.

E

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Corporation are confidential and intended solely for the
use of the individual or entity to whom they are addressed.<= /font>
If you have received this email in error please notify the
sender.
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 - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - ------_=_NextPart_001_01C1F07A.64453CA0-- - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ End of canslim-digest V2 #2372 ****************************** To unsubscribe to canslim-digest, send an email to "majordomo@xmission.com" with "unsubscribe canslim-digest" in the body of the message. For information on digests or retrieving files and old messages send "help" to the same address. Do not use quotes in your message.