From: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com (canslim-digest) To: canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Subject: canslim-digest V2 #2395 Reply-To: canslim Sender: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Errors-To: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Precedence: bulk Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable X-No-Archive: yes canslim-digest Friday, May 3 2002 Volume 02 : Number 2395 In this issue: Re: [CANSLIM] SAH - now IBD Re: [CANSLIM] SAH - now IBD Re: [CANSLIM] USLB Re: [CANSLIM] USLB Re: [CANSLIM] USLB [CANSLIM] Accessing the discussion canslim archives... Re: [CANSLIM] IBD's Industry Group and Ticker Symbol Index [CANSLIM] MWRK, microcaps, charts [CANSLIM] AB charts updated Re: [CANSLIM] AB charts updated Re: [CANSLIM] MWRK, microcaps, charts ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Date: Fri, 3 May 2002 06:51:51 -0400 From: "Winston Little" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] SAH - now IBD Where The Big Money's Flowing =WTBMF - ----- Original Message ----- From: "Dimitri Katsaros" To: Sent: Friday, May 03, 2002 6:41 AM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] SAH - now IBD > Sorry to be a dunce, but what does WTBMF refer to > again? I tried to do an archive search, but the script > appears to be broken. > > Thanks > Dimitri > > --- John Calkins wrote: > > I introduced myself on April 20th, 2002 and showed > > how I use IBD data for my > > lists. (CANSLIM jc) > > > > I too have thought of stopping the paper then use a > > follow through week and > > get a one month subscription to DGO. I would like > > to know how you find the > > main concept of WON's elephants in the bathtub > > without WTBMF in IBD? This > > list "is" IBD, period, if you turn off all the > > noise! As I indicated in my 4 > > years of data entry of WTBMF, looking at their > > charts and selecting a > > possible CWH, Double Bottom, or Flat Base and Stocks > > in the News data lists, > > I find some 90% of the time a Mini Graph has shown > > up to give me the > > fundamental data that I use to create my sorted > > lists....(see my "CANSLIM > > jc" from April 20, 2002). > > > > As outlined in his books, tapes, videos, paper, > > seminars and online, all the > > CANSLIM rules should be applied otherwise you are > > using some other style of > > speculation that does not have the models developed > > my WON. > > > > My observations now are that IBD is not listing as > > many "NEAR NEW HIGHS" in > > the Stocks in the News Mini Graphs, and are listing > > stocks that appear to be > > extended from their consolidations by more than the > > %15 that they say they > > don't show. So I too am a little confused at times > > by their > > inconsistencies, but maybe with the market we may be > > seeing some short > > candidates and or maybe the CANSLIM CWH's are just > > not there, yet. It would > > be great to talk to the people who choose which of > > the New Highs get chosen > > for the Stocks in the News. > > > > Has anyone ever found the elephants anywhere else? > > > > JC > > ===== > Quiquid latine dictum sit altum viditur > > __________________________________________________ > Do You Yahoo!? > Yahoo! Health - your guide to health and wellness > http://health.yahoo.com > > - > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. > - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 3 May 2002 06:58:01 -0400 From: "Winston Little" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] SAH - now IBD Try a FREE site at http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/reports/ Tell me what you think. - ----- Original Message ----- From: "John Calkins" To: Sent: Friday, May 03, 2002 5:55 AM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] SAH - now IBD > I introduced myself on April 20th, 2002 and showed how I use IBD data for my > lists. (CANSLIM jc) > > I too have thought of stopping the paper then use a follow through week and > get a one month subscription to DGO. I would like to know how you find the > main concept of WON's elephants in the bathtub without WTBMF in IBD? This > list "is" IBD, period, if you turn off all the noise! As I indicated in my 4 > years of data entry of WTBMF, looking at their charts and selecting a > possible CWH, Double Bottom, or Flat Base and Stocks in the News data lists, > I find some 90% of the time a Mini Graph has shown up to give me the > fundamental data that I use to create my sorted lists....(see my "CANSLIM > jc" from April 20, 2002). > > As outlined in his books, tapes, videos, paper, seminars and online, all the > CANSLIM rules should be applied otherwise you are using some other style of > speculation that does not have the models developed my WON. > > My observations now are that IBD is not listing as many "NEAR NEW HIGHS" in > the Stocks in the News Mini Graphs, and are listing stocks that appear to be > extended from their consolidations by more than the %15 that they say they > don't show. So I too am a little confused at times by their > inconsistencies, but maybe with the market we may be seeing some short > candidates and or maybe the CANSLIM CWH's are just not there, yet. It would > be great to talk to the people who choose which of the New Highs get chosen > for the Stocks in the News. > > Has anyone ever found the elephants anywhere else? > > JC > > > > > ----- Original Message ----- > From: "Ian" > To: > Sent: Thursday, May 02, 2002 10:16 PM > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] SAH - now IBD > > > > I'll chip in with a more optimistic view of IBD: > > > > All I ever read is the 'earnings', 'WTBMF' and 'new highs' sections, and I > > come away with a great appreciation for the paper. I am a big, big fan of > > their earnings section - it is thorough, comprehensive and has enough data > > to do some serious mining. They charge me $2.50/day for it here, which is > > the best money I spend on investing tools, by a country mile. > > > > Ian > > > > > > > > ----- Original Message ----- > > From: Bill Triffet > > To: > > Sent: Thursday, May 02, 2002 9:18 PM > > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] SAH - now IBD > > > > > > > I just got done explaining to one of the members offline that the > Weekend > > > Review was a good place to start. Back in 97-99 they had more with > actual > > > bases ready to go. I found some great winners there back then (oh the > good > > > ol days). Perhaps it's out lived it's usefulness. I have noticed this > year > > a > > > lot more extended stocks than not are put there. I just think it's a > sign > > > of the market but they must still fill the paper with somthing... > > > > > > On a related note, I'm about to switch from IBD to Daily Graphs for the > > > reasons above. While the subcription is a lot more, it's usefulness more > > > than justifies it. I got REAL tired of reading about how Clinton was the > > > anti-Christ with no real stock picks to show for it all. > > > > > > -Bill > > > > > > ----- Original Message ----- > > > From: "J. Lobatto" > > > To: > > > Sent: Thursday, May 02, 2002 8:19 PM > > > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] SAH > > > > > > > > > > I'll second these thoughts. It always puzzles me why in The Weekend > > Review > > > > section they display graphs of stocks that are overextended. > > > > > > > > ----- Original Message ----- > > > > From: "Tom Worley" > > > > To: > > > > Sent: Thursday, May 02, 2002 11:04 PM > > > > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] SAH > > > > > > > > > > > > > what, we gotta think for ourselves now as well? Actually, I agree, > at > > > > least > > > > > in part. I just hate IBD always pretending that they know it all, by > > > using > > > > > charts already weeks or months, or years, old. > > > > > > > > > > I stopped subscribing years ago because, in part, they were not > > teaching > > > > me > > > > > anything new about handling "TODAY'S" market. I can figure out, > today, > > > > real > > > > > well what I should have done three months ago (and most likely did > not > > > do > > > > > then). That's easy, try something challenging, like staying fully > > > invested > > > > > in today's market place. And making money at the same time. > > > > > > > > > > Tom Worley > > > > > stkguru@bellsouth.net > > > > > AIM: TexWorley > > > > > ----- Original Message ----- > > > > > From: "Ian" > > > > > To: > > > > > Sent: Thursday, May 02, 2002 11:20 PM > > > > > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] SAH > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > I dunno. I think that would take away some of our advantage. > > > > > > > > > > Ian > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > ----- Original Message ----- > > > > > From: Tom Worley > > > > > To: > > > > > Sent: Thursday, May 02, 2002 7:26 PM > > > > > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] SAH > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > IBD has a history of featuring stocks long after they are buyable, > > and > > > > > > already a proven winner. We have had many discussions here about > > that, > > > > and > > > > > I > > > > > > suspect most members, as well as most paying subscribers, would > like > > > > them > > > > > to > > > > > > feature more on current situations. Show the stocks with good c&h > > > > > formations > > > > > > right now that have fundies (fundamentals) that make them worth > > > watching > > > > > > closely. > > > > > > > > > > > > Point out stocks that are ridiculously overextended, or have no > > > fundies > > > > at > > > > > > all, as possible shorts > > > > > > > > > > > > Point out distribution days as they occur, both on indexes and > > > > individual > > > > > > stocks > > > > > > > > > > > > Tom Worley > > > > > > stkguru@bellsouth.net > > > > > > AIM: TexWorley > > > > > > ----- Original Message ----- > > > > > > From: "Winston Little" > > > > > > To: > > > > > > Sent: Thursday, May 02, 2002 10:18 PM > > > > > > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] SAH > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Tom: > > > > > > > > > > > > My thinking had been that I was the only one wondering about the > > > > companies > > > > > > selected and somtimes repeated in feature stories a week or two > > later > > > in > > > > > the > > > > > > paper. > > > > > > > > > > - > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. > - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 03 May 2002 07:06:22 -0500 (CDT) From: "Robert Gammon" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] USLB Jans, A specific example might be as follows As a mid to upper level manager, you are granted options to buy the company stock at current market price. The options expire in 10 years. You are getting options on 1,000 share per year at a strike price of $25. Fast forward to 2002, 9 1/2 years after you were granted the options. The current market price is $50, and the stock has split 3 times along the way. Your 1,000 shares are now 4,000 shares and the strike price on the option is $3.13. Faced with getting or losing those profits, wouldn't you be exercising and selling the shares??? For the math challenged among us, thats nearly $187,500 before commissions and taxes and all I had to do was hang on. Most in this position don't merely hang on, they continue their outstanding job performance and the options get larger each year. I picked a relatively mild example. something for a middle manager. For the top 5 to 10 individuals, multiply the numbers by 10 to 50. To the recipient, this is 'free' money. Greater than 90% exercise for cash (i.e. sell the shares immediately) If you exercise and hold, you MUST come up with the cash for the purchase (4000 * $3.125 = $12,500) PLUS the tax on the imputed gain (187,500 * 35% = $65,625) or about $78,000 So, I PAY $78,000 or I RECEIVE $121,875 (after taxes)??? I already have over 75% of my total net worth tied up in the company stock, and you want me to ADD to the position???? I'll take the cash, thank you very much. Robert On Thu, 2 May 2002 22:01:12 -0400, Tom Worley wrote: >Tom: > > As I understand it, "in the money options" mean that the options are >higher than the striking price. And deep in the money-I presume-would mean >that the options are a lot higher than the striking price. > > If this is so, and the options are about to expire, than why don't the >option-owners exercise them (ie. sell them)? > >jans > > > >In a message dated 5/2/2002 8:53:33 PM Eastern Daylight Time, >stkguru@bellsouth.net writes: > ><< Why would an insider sell if he thinks things are going great and will >get > better? Because often their entire net worth is tied up in one company, and > they need to diversify. Also, they may have options about to expire that >are > deep in the money. Can't just exercise the options, need to sell stock to > pay the immediately due tax bill. >> > >- >-To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" >-In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or >-"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. > > > > >- >-To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" >-In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or >-"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 03 May 2002 07:09:46 -0500 (CDT) From: "Robert Gammon" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] USLB OOPS, I math challenged myself, this should be TWO (2) stock splits later. Robert On Fri, 03 May 2002 07:06:22 -0500 (CDT), Robert Gammon wrote: >Jans, > A specific example might be as follows > > As a mid to upper level manager, you are granted options to buy the company stock at >current market price. The options expire in 10 years. You are getting options on 1,000 >share per year at a strike price of $25. > > Fast forward to 2002, 9 1/2 years after you were granted the options. The current market >price is $50, and the stock has split 3 times along the way. Your 1,000 shares are now >4,000 shares and the strike price on the option is $3.13. Faced with getting or losing >those profits, wouldn't you be exercising and selling the shares??? For the math >challenged among us, thats nearly $187,500 before commissions and taxes and all I had to do >was hang on. Most in this position don't merely hang on, they continue their outstanding >job performance and the options get larger each year. > >I picked a relatively mild example. something for a middle manager. For the top 5 to 10 >individuals, multiply the numbers by 10 to 50. To the recipient, this is 'free' money. >Greater than 90% exercise for cash (i.e. sell the shares immediately) > >If you exercise and hold, you MUST come up with the cash for the purchase (4000 * $3.125 = >$12,500) PLUS the tax on the imputed gain (187,500 * 35% = $65,625) or about $78,000 >So, I PAY $78,000 or I RECEIVE $121,875 (after taxes)??? I already have over 75% of my >total net worth tied up in the company stock, and you want me to ADD to the position???? >I'll take the cash, thank you very much. > >Robert > >On Thu, 2 May 2002 22:01:12 -0400, Tom Worley wrote: > >>Tom: >> >> As I understand it, "in the money options" mean that the options are >>higher than the striking price. And deep in the money-I presume-would mean >>that the options are a lot higher than the striking price. >> >> If this is so, and the options are about to expire, than why don't the >>option-owners exercise them (ie. sell them)? >> >>jans >> >> >> >>In a message dated 5/2/2002 8:53:33 PM Eastern Daylight Time, >>stkguru@bellsouth.net writes: >> >><< Why would an insider sell if he thinks things are going great and will >>get >> better? Because often their entire net worth is tied up in one company, and >> they need to diversify. Also, they may have options about to expire that >>are >> deep in the money. Can't just exercise the options, need to sell stock to >> pay the immediately due tax bill. >> >> >>- >>-To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" >>-In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or >>-"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. >> >> >> >> >>- >>-To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" >>-In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or >>-"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. > > > >- >-To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" >-In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or >-"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 3 May 2002 08:44:04 -0400 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] USLB thanks, Robert, good presentation I must point out, to avoid any confusion, that this discussion started because I pointed out that Management owns 70% of the issue according to DGO. However, their chart for the past year does not show any insider selling, so this is all theoretical at this point. While I would totally expect them to exercise any expiring options, and sell the acquired shares for exactly the reasons laid out so well by Robert below, I see no evidence so far of a mass exodus from the stock by the insiders. Tom Worley stkguru@bellsouth.net AIM: TexWorley - ----- Original Message ----- From: "Robert Gammon" To: Sent: Friday, May 03, 2002 8:09 AM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] USLB OOPS, I math challenged myself, this should be TWO (2) stock splits later. Robert On Fri, 03 May 2002 07:06:22 -0500 (CDT), Robert Gammon wrote: >Jans, > A specific example might be as follows > > As a mid to upper level manager, you are granted options to buy the company stock at >current market price. The options expire in 10 years. You are getting options on 1,000 >share per year at a strike price of $25. > > Fast forward to 2002, 9 1/2 years after you were granted the options. The current market >price is $50, and the stock has split 3 times along the way. Your 1,000 shares are now >4,000 shares and the strike price on the option is $3.13. Faced with getting or losing >those profits, wouldn't you be exercising and selling the shares??? For the math >challenged among us, thats nearly $187,500 before commissions and taxes and all I had to do >was hang on. Most in this position don't merely hang on, they continue their outstanding >job performance and the options get larger each year. > >I picked a relatively mild example. something for a middle manager. For the top 5 to 10 >individuals, multiply the numbers by 10 to 50. To the recipient, this is 'free' money. >Greater than 90% exercise for cash (i.e. sell the shares immediately) > >If you exercise and hold, you MUST come up with the cash for the purchase (4000 * $3.125 = >$12,500) PLUS the tax on the imputed gain (187,500 * 35% = $65,625) or about $78,000 >So, I PAY $78,000 or I RECEIVE $121,875 (after taxes)??? I already have over 75% of my >total net worth tied up in the company stock, and you want me to ADD to the position???? >I'll take the cash, thank you very much. > >Robert > >On Thu, 2 May 2002 22:01:12 -0400, Tom Worley wrote: > >>Tom: >> >> As I understand it, "in the money options" mean that the options are >>higher than the striking price. And deep in the money-I presume-would mean >>that the options are a lot higher than the striking price. >> >> If this is so, and the options are about to expire, than why don't the >>option-owners exercise them (ie. sell them)? >> >>jans >> >> >> >>In a message dated 5/2/2002 8:53:33 PM Eastern Daylight Time, >>stkguru@bellsouth.net writes: >> >><< Why would an insider sell if he thinks things are going great and will >>get >> better? Because often their entire net worth is tied up in one company, and >> they need to diversify. Also, they may have options about to expire that >>are >> deep in the money. Can't just exercise the options, need to sell stock to >> pay the immediately due tax bill. >> >> >>- >>-To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" >>-In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or >>-"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. >> >> >> >> >>- >>-To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" >>-In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or >>-"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. > > > >- >-To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" >-In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or >-"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 03 May 2002 08:00:00 -0600 From: owner-canslim@xmission.com (Jeff Salisbury) Subject: [CANSLIM] Accessing the discussion canslim archives... From time to time, CANSLIM members may wish to browse the discussion archives. This posting provides instructions on how to access the archives. Thanks to David Cameron for compiling the essentials of this message. Here are the two ways to access the archives: 1. The best way is to use your web browser. To browse the archives, point your browser to: ftp://ftp.xmission.com/pub/lists/canslim/archive/ 2. (Not as convenient) via email: Send an email to majordomo@xmission.com with the following as the body of your message: "index canslim". Then send a follow up email to request an old email from either the "archive" or "latest" directory. Note that your request must be in the body of your email. For example: "get canslim latest/001" will retrieve file "001" from the "latest" directory. "get canslim archive/v01.n066" will retrieve file "v01.n066" from the "archive" dir. Best Regards, Jeff Salisbury - CANSLIM list owner/admin - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 2 May 2002 15:52:00 -0700 (PDT) From: Simon Yang Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] IBD's Industry Group and Ticker Symbol Index - --0-562371629-1020379920=:25401 Content-Type: text/plain; charset=us-ascii I have used them very effectively for the past two years, but needed to update them from time to time. Simon, simoninvestments.net rolf hertenstein wrote: Hello all - Could anyone who has used this guide in the past tell me if they indeed found it useful? I'll likely wait for the next issue due in June in any case. Thanks! Rolf - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - --------------------------------- Do You Yahoo!? Yahoo! Health - your guide to health and wellness - --0-562371629-1020379920=:25401 Content-Type: text/html; charset=us-ascii

I have used them very effectively for the past two years, but needed to update them from time to time.

Simon, simoninvestments.net

  rolf hertenstein <rolfh@mindspring.com> wrote:

Hello all -

Could anyone who has used this guide in the past
tell me if they
indeed found it useful? I'll likely wait for the
next issue due in June
in any case.

Thanks!

Rolf


-
-To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com"
-In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or
-"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email.


Do You Yahoo!?
Yahoo! Health - your guide to health and wellness - --0-562371629-1020379920=:25401-- - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 3 May 2002 09:54:46 -0500 From: "Katherine Malm" Subject: [CANSLIM] MWRK, microcaps, charts This is a multi-part message in MIME format. - ------=_NextPart_000_007C_01C1F288.8E7B3DC0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable Ian, I'm addressing this to you primarily, as you are more familiar with = microcap behavior, though others on the list may have a point of view on = this as well... I tend to stick to stocks trading >=3D$10, but monitor = lower priced stocks for the up and comers. Something I've observed that = confuses me, however, are the chart patterns for these minis as they = begin their charge ahead. A good recent example is MWRK (not a perfect = example, because it traded around 6-12 for quite a while before = breakout, but good enough for the chart example.) The question is this....when I look at this chart, it looks like a = classic parabolic climax run. Something I normally see after a stock has = put in its 3rd or 4th stage base and is giving up the ghost. In those = cases, I'm looking to run for cover or short. But what I've noticed = lately is the tendency for microcaps to shoot into these patterns after = breaking from their long flat slumbering bases, settle down, and then = start a steady ascent. Is that a "normal" pattern that I'm seeing for = the microcaps or is it an anomaly that you've noticed in the market over = the last couple of years? Any and all thoughts on the subject would be = most appreciated. Katherine - ------=_NextPart_000_007C_01C1F288.8E7B3DC0 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
Ian,
 
I'm addressing this to you primarily, as you are more familiar with = microcap behavior, though others on the list may have a point of view on = this as=20 well... I tend to stick to stocks trading >=3D$10, but monitor lower = priced=20 stocks for the up and comers. Something I've observed that confuses me, = however,=20 are the chart patterns for these minis as they begin their charge ahead. = A good=20 recent example is MWRK (not a perfect example, because it traded around = 6-12 for=20 quite a while before breakout, but good enough for the chart = example.)
 
The question is this....when I look at this chart, it looks like a = classic=20 parabolic climax run. Something I normally see after a stock has put in = its 3rd=20 or 4th stage base and is giving up the ghost. In those cases, I'm = looking to run=20 for cover or short. But what I've noticed lately is the tendency for = microcaps=20 to shoot into these patterns after breaking from their long flat = slumbering=20 bases, settle down, and then start a steady ascent. Is that a "normal" = pattern=20 that I'm seeing for the microcaps or is it an anomaly that you've = noticed in the=20 market over the last couple of years? Any and all thoughts on the = subject would=20 be most appreciated.
 
Katherine
- ------=_NextPart_000_007C_01C1F288.8E7B3DC0-- - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 3 May 2002 09:58:39 -0500 From: "Fred Richards" Subject: [CANSLIM] AB charts updated This is a multi-part message in MIME format. - ------=_NextPart_000_0004_01C1F289.196B7A80 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit We have updated the AB charts from the IBD Accumulate/Distribution numbers and added some new charts as well to the public site. They are available at: http://www.adrich.com/SI/Info/A's.htm Fred Richards Corruptisima republica plurimae leges. [The more corrupt a republic, the more laws.] - - Tacitus, Annuals III 27 www.adrich.com - ------=_NextPart_000_0004_01C1F289.196B7A80 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
We = have updated the=20 AB charts from the IBD Accumulate/Distribution numbers and added some = new charts=20 as well to the public site.
 
They = are available=20 at:  http://www.adrich.com/SI/I= nfo/A's.htm
 
Fred Richards
 
Corruptisima republica plurimae = leges.  [The=20 more corrupt a republic, the more laws.]  - - Tacitus, Annuals III=20 27
 
www.adrich.com
 
- ------=_NextPart_000_0004_01C1F289.196B7A80-- - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 3 May 2002 08:39:06 -0700 From: "John Calkins" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] AB charts updated This is a multi-part message in MIME format. - ------=_NextPart_000_0023_01C1F27D.FC78E620 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable What is A+194? I see the IBD 600 list each day, but I don't understand = A+194. ----- Original Message -----=20 From: Fred Richards=20 To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20 Sent: Friday, May 03, 2002 7:58 AM Subject: [CANSLIM] AB charts updated We have updated the AB charts from the IBD Accumulate/Distribution = numbers and added some new charts as well to the public site. They are available at: http://www.adrich.com/SI/Info/A's.htm Fred Richards Corruptisima republica plurimae leges. [The more corrupt a republic, = the more laws.] - - Tacitus, Annuals III 27 www.adrich.com - ------=_NextPart_000_0023_01C1F27D.FC78E620 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
What is A+194? I see the IBD 600 list = each=20 day,  but I don't understand A+194.
----- Original Message -----
From:=20 Fred = Richards
Sent: Friday, May 03, 2002 7:58 = AM
Subject: [CANSLIM] AB charts=20 updated

We = have updated=20 the AB charts from the IBD Accumulate/Distribution numbers and added = some new=20 charts as well to the public site.
 
They = are available=20 at:  http://www.adrich.com/SI/I= nfo/A's.htm
 
Fred Richards
 
Corruptisima republica plurimae = leges.  [The=20 more corrupt a republic, the more laws.]  - - Tacitus, Annuals = III=20 27
 
www.adrich.com
 
- ------=_NextPart_000_0023_01C1F27D.FC78E620-- - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 03 May 2002 09:25:48 -0700 From: Ian Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] MWRK, microcaps, charts This is a multi-part message in MIME format. - --Boundary_(ID_qWLa5/GeoyPSuD34nONm7g) Content-type: text/plain; charset=iso-8859-1 Content-transfer-encoding: 7BIT Katherine: In my experience, most strong microcaps come out of their slumber with the same chart patterns as their larger brethren. The biggest differences are: 1. The relative change in the ADV willl usually be at least 200-300% higher, and often 1000-2000% higher. 2. It is not uncommon for the initial gains, in the first few days of a breakout, to exceed 50%. MTHR is a bit painful for me to look at, as it was a 'triple star' entry in my little notebook (those are quite rare) on January 22 at $12 - and for the life of me, I cannot figure out why I never followed up on it and bought in :( The steady increase in volume following the March 1 breakout was a classic 'strong buy' indicator in these kind of stocks - offering a great entry in the $14 - $15 range. I should never have missed it - a major flaw or omission in my alert system. Regarding the April strength, I would say that the strength of the run, from $16 to $32 is recent market anomaly, and not 'traditional' behaviour for microcaps. I believe it is a byproduct of two things: 1. The 'need' for $15+ stocks 2. The incredibly strong interest in microcaps right now Since most microcaps are struggling under the comfort level of institutions (under $10), the rare ones that make it up to the $12-$14 range with strong bases can go parabolic in this market. MTEC is another great recent example. Both have in the neighbourhood of 4,000,000 shares outstanding. When you combine that low float with a 1000%+ change in ADV, like MWRK and MTEC saw, it often results in the chart you see. One other thing to note is that from a valuation perspective, a $10 surge in price does not actually impact the P/S and P/B multiples too much. I remember being in awe at how Juniper could go up by a multiple of 10 times revenue in a day during the bubble. Finally, I would agree that unlike their larger brethren, these runs to not immediately scream 'short'. I suspect that the main reason for this difference is valuation. Many of these stocks are coming off of extremely low valuations relative to other high-beta stocks. The traditional sell rules still apply though. Ian - ----- Original Message ----- From: Katherine Malm To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Sent: Friday, May 03, 2002 7:54 AM Subject: [CANSLIM] MWRK, microcaps, charts Ian, I'm addressing this to you primarily, as you are more familiar with microcap behavior, though others on the list may have a point of view on this as well... I tend to stick to stocks trading >=$10, but monitor lower priced stocks for the up and comers. Something I've observed that confuses me, however, are the chart patterns for these minis as they begin their charge ahead. A good recent example is MWRK (not a perfect example, because it traded around 6-12 for quite a while before breakout, but good enough for the chart example.) The question is this....when I look at this chart, it looks like a classic parabolic climax run. Something I normally see after a stock has put in its 3rd or 4th stage base and is giving up the ghost. In those cases, I'm looking to run for cover or short. But what I've noticed lately is the tendency for microcaps to shoot into these patterns after breaking from their long flat slumbering bases, settle down, and then start a steady ascent. Is that a "normal" pattern that I'm seeing for the microcaps or is it an anomaly that you've noticed in the market over the last couple of years? Any and all thoughts on the subject would be most appreciated. Katherine - --Boundary_(ID_qWLa5/GeoyPSuD34nONm7g) Content-type: text/html; charset=iso-8859-1 Content-transfer-encoding: 7BIT
Katherine:
 
In my experience, most strong microcaps come out of their slumber with the same chart patterns as their larger brethren. The biggest differences are:
 
1. The relative change in the ADV willl usually be at least 200-300% higher, and often 1000-2000% higher.
2. It is not uncommon for the initial gains, in the first few days of a breakout, to exceed 50%.
 
MTHR is a bit painful for me to look at, as it was a 'triple star' entry in my little notebook (those are quite rare) on January 22 at $12 - and for the life of me, I cannot figure out why I never followed up on it and bought in :(   The steady increase in volume following the March 1 breakout was a classic 'strong buy' indicator in these kind of stocks - offering a great entry in the $14 - $15 range. I should never have missed it - a major flaw or omission in my alert system.
 
Regarding the April strength, I would say that the strength of the run, from $16 to $32 is recent market anomaly, and not 'traditional' behaviour for microcaps. I believe it is a byproduct of two things:
 
1. The 'need' for $15+ stocks
2. The incredibly strong interest in microcaps right now
 
Since most microcaps are struggling under the comfort level of institutions (under $10), the rare ones that make it up to the $12-$14 range with strong bases can go parabolic in this market. MTEC is another great recent example. Both have in the neighbourhood of 4,000,000 shares outstanding.  When you combine that low float with a 1000%+ change in ADV, like MWRK and MTEC saw, it often results in the chart you see.
 
One other thing to note is that from a valuation perspective, a $10 surge in price does not actually impact the P/S and P/B multiples too much. I remember being in awe at how Juniper could go up by a multiple of 10 times revenue in a day during the bubble.
 
 
Finally, I would agree that unlike their larger brethren, these runs to not immediately scream 'short'. I suspect that the main reason for this difference is valuation. Many of these stocks are coming off of extremely low valuations relative to other high-beta stocks. The traditional sell rules still apply though.
 
Ian
 
 
 
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Friday, May 03, 2002 7:54 AM
Subject: [CANSLIM] MWRK, microcaps, charts

Ian,
 
I'm addressing this to you primarily, as you are more familiar with microcap behavior, though others on the list may have a point of view on this as well... I tend to stick to stocks trading >=$10, but monitor lower priced stocks for the up and comers. Something I've observed that confuses me, however, are the chart patterns for these minis as they begin their charge ahead. A good recent example is MWRK (not a perfect example, because it traded around 6-12 for quite a while before breakout, but good enough for the chart example.)
 
The question is this....when I look at this chart, it looks like a classic parabolic climax run. Something I normally see after a stock has put in its 3rd or 4th stage base and is giving up the ghost. In those cases, I'm looking to run for cover or short. But what I've noticed lately is the tendency for microcaps to shoot into these patterns after breaking from their long flat slumbering bases, settle down, and then start a steady ascent. Is that a "normal" pattern that I'm seeing for the microcaps or is it an anomaly that you've noticed in the market over the last couple of years? Any and all thoughts on the subject would be most appreciated.
 
Katherine
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