From: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com (canslim-digest) To: canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Subject: canslim-digest V2 #2406 Reply-To: canslim Sender: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Errors-To: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Precedence: bulk Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable X-No-Archive: yes canslim-digest Wednesday, May 8 2002 Volume 02 : Number 2406 In this issue: Re: [CANSLIM] Curious in Florida Re: [CANSLIM] Curious in Florida RE: [CANSLIM] M measured by the S&P 500 index Re: [CANSLIM] Curious in Florida Re: [CANSLIM] Curious in Florida Re: [CANSLIM] Curious in Florida ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Date: Wed, 8 May 2002 11:32:01 EDT From: Chazmoore@aol.com Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Curious in Florida - --part1_133.dfdda64.2a0a9ef1_boundary Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII" Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit Duke: I have noticed the same repeats as you have, and yes, I think they will do well in an up market. However, today we are seeing a mass movement back to the technical sector, based on CSCO surprising earnings announcement. Good stocks, like UOPX and WGO are pulling back as investors run to jump on the tech bandwagon. It is probably a good time to go to cash and wait for the craziness to subside. Charley - --part1_133.dfdda64.2a0a9ef1_boundary Content-Type: text/html; charset="US-ASCII" Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit Duke: I have noticed the same repeats as you have, and yes, I think they will do well in an up market. However, today we are seeing a mass movement back to the technical sector, based on CSCO surprising earnings announcement. Good stocks, like UOPX and WGO are pulling back as investors run to jump on the tech bandwagon. It is probably a good time to go to cash and wait for the craziness to subside. Charley - --part1_133.dfdda64.2a0a9ef1_boundary-- - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 08 May 2002 09:01:13 -0700 From: Ian Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Curious in Florida This is a multi-part message in MIME format. - --Boundary_(ID_s+hJpVi+vDxBxGWGMNsNIQ) Content-type: text/plain; charset=iso-8859-1 Content-transfer-encoding: 7BIT MessageDuke: I'll sit firmly on the fence on this one - I would look at each stock on an individual basis, and try to guess whether or not it was a 'temporary plaything' while the market was correcting past excesses, or if it will be a clear economic winner going forward. I would probably base that judgement on whether the forward growth justifies the current multiples on a historic basis. I think a lot of stocks were run up even though they have anemic growth, while others will truly be leaders of the next phase. However, the bottom line should be that the charts will tell you which is which, going forward. DOoyou have any objections to sharing the list with the group? Ian - ----- Original Message ----- From: Duke Miller To: CANSLIM Sent: Wednesday, May 08, 2002 8:01 AM Subject: [CANSLIM] Curious in Florida Good morning all: Since most of you know how I feel about present market environment, you'll be glad to know this isn't about that. It's about AFTER "that!" I'll explain: Each day, I download the Excel version of the Daily Screen from IBD. Then I "play" with it for awhile. I sort various aspects to my personal preferences: Industry Group Rank (eliminating all above 40); SMR (eliminating all at C or worse); and so forth. Then I may sort them by other factors--combined RS & EPS Ratings or Index of Current PE vs. Projected--to arrive at a another cutoff point. After all that, I put the remnants into a portfolio with that day's price. Then I follow the action. What I'm seeing is an amalgam of stocks, the majority of which keep re-appearing in my final cuts. Some, more than I care to mention, I was shaken out of earlier this year before going to all cash; some, more than I care to mention, I wish I'd jumped on. They're the ones that when I should have jumped on them (I don't have 20-20 hindsight like IBD does) the right criteria weren't present (usually the darn charts). But the fact remains, many of the same symbols are there. And they aren't going away! Further, on May 6, a truly awful day on all three of the big indexes, I reviewed my Daily Screens portfolios to see which stocks suffered the least. The list read like a who's-who of my Daily Screens Portfolios. So, here's my question: If these same names are hanging around like they are, day in and day out for several months now, both on my sorted screens and in IBD editorial, does it stand to reason that when the market turns, these stocks that have exhibited such strength in a bad market should be the BIG winners when M starts to head North? I, like all of you, hear over and over again that we should be watching for stocks forming good bases at this time, blah, blah, blah. But it's my opinion 9/11 created one crazy environment for the markets and a lot of stocks we're seeing making big gains these days are NOT conforming to the teachings of WON. While composing this, I put these stocks to one more test. The Canslim Evaluator. I found it interesting that while all these stocks are floating on the top, the average score is an unimpressive 6.2 out of 10. In fact, only one was 8 or better: UOPX at 8. (FYI: Yes, there are 11 criteria on the Evaluator, but I throw out N--the fact a stock appears within the past 7 days on a Watch List is immaterial for ranking purposes, IMHO.) Your opinions will be highly valued. Thank you. Duke Everybody should believe in something - I believe I'll have another glass of great wine! - --Boundary_(ID_s+hJpVi+vDxBxGWGMNsNIQ) Content-type: text/html; charset=iso-8859-1 Content-transfer-encoding: 7BIT Message
Duke:
 
I'll sit firmly on the fence on this one - I would look at each stock on an individual basis, and try to guess whether or not it was a 'temporary plaything' while the market was correcting past excesses, or if it will be a clear economic winner going forward.
 
I would probably base that judgement on whether the forward growth justifies the current multiples on a historic basis. I think a lot of stocks were run up even though they have anemic growth, while others will truly be leaders of the next phase.
 
However, the bottom line should be that the charts will tell you which is which, going forward.
 
DOoyou have any objections to sharing the list with the group?
 
Ian
 
 
 
 
----- Original Message -----
From: Duke Miller
To: CANSLIM
Sent: Wednesday, May 08, 2002 8:01 AM
Subject: [CANSLIM] Curious in Florida

Good morning all:
 
Since most of you know how I feel about present market environment, you'll be glad to know this isn't about that.  It's about AFTER "that!"  I'll explain:
 
Each day, I download the Excel version of the Daily Screen from IBD.  Then I "play" with it for awhile.  I sort various aspects to my personal preferences: Industry Group Rank (eliminating all above 40); SMR (eliminating all at C or worse); and so forth.  Then I may sort them by other factors--combined RS & EPS Ratings or Index of Current PE vs. Projected--to arrive at a  another cutoff point.  After all that, I put the remnants into a portfolio with that day's price.  Then I follow the action. 
 
What I'm seeing is an amalgam of stocks, the majority of which keep re-appearing in my final cuts.  Some, more than I care to mention, I was shaken out of earlier this year before going to all cash; some, more than I care to mention, I wish I'd jumped on.  They're the ones that when I should have jumped on them (I don't have 20-20 hindsight like IBD does) the right criteria weren't present (usually the darn charts).  But the fact remains, many of the same symbols are there.  And they aren't going away!
 
Further, on May 6, a truly awful day on all three of the big indexes, I reviewed my Daily Screens portfolios to see which stocks suffered the least.  The list read like a who's-who of my Daily Screens Portfolios. 
 
So, here's my question:  If these same names are hanging around like they are, day in and day out for several months now, both on my sorted screens and in IBD editorial, does it stand to reason that when the market turns, these stocks that have exhibited such strength in a bad market should be the BIG winners when M starts to head North?
 
I, like all of you, hear over and over again that we should be watching for stocks forming good bases at this time, blah, blah, blah.  But it's my opinion 9/11 created one crazy environment for the markets and a lot of stocks we're seeing making big gains these days are NOT conforming to the teachings of WON.  While composing this, I put these stocks to one more test.  The Canslim Evaluator.  I found it interesting that while all these stocks are floating on the top, the average score is an unimpressive 6.2 out of 10.  In fact, only one was 8 or better:  UOPX at 8.  (FYI:  Yes, there are 11 criteria on the Evaluator, but I throw out N--the fact a stock appears within the past 7 days on a Watch List is immaterial for ranking purposes, IMHO.)
 
Your opinions will be highly valued.  Thank you.
 
Duke
 
Everybody should believe in something - I believe I'll have another glass of great wine!
 
- --Boundary_(ID_s+hJpVi+vDxBxGWGMNsNIQ)-- - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 8 May 2002 09:51:50 -0400 From: dave.bigham@us.abb.com Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] M measured by the S&P 500 index Ernie, I have not really been paying a lot of attention to what your tool is or how your model works but the fact that you are trying to make sense out of chaos is commendable. Neither you nor anyone else said your projections would be infallible. As you say below - "I stand by my original analysis as being the highest probable outcome". "Probable" does not connote certainty. Keep working at it. If nothing else, you are probably learning a lot. All the best, Dave |----------> | | |----------> >------------------------------------------------------------------------| | | >------------------------------------------------------------------------| Someone has ask me off list if I have tried going back over my analysis that failed, and look for the weight of evidence to point in the opposite direction? My answer was yes I have, and I stand by my original analysis as being the highest probable outcome. The problem is that investor psychology is at an extreme right now, which like unexpected news can skew the probabilities in ways that are very difficult to account for. Hopefully investor psychology will soon return to a more "normal" state, and my methodology will become a little more accurate. E - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 8 May 2002 10:48:20 -0500 From: "Katherine Malm" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Curious in Florida This is a multi-part message in MIME format. - ------=_NextPart_000_0191_01C1F67D.DE9C1380 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable MessageHi Duke, I agree with you. Under all circumstances, stocks that outperform are = likely to continue to outperform...UNLESS....they are technically = topping. So, while the market is tanking in general, stocks that are = outperforming might be either consolidating or rising. The only thing = that I would disagree on is that 9/11 or no, you need a healthy = technical pattern and proper entry (breakout or pullback) to enter. I = look for stocks/groups that are technically strong, then just use = fundamentals as a sorting criteria. I just don't think after a Bear = market and economic recession that you're more likely to find = fundamental turnarounds and/or fundamentals that stayed mildly strong = rather than a bevy of stocks with hugely accelerating fundamentals. The = stocks that are going to do well are the ones that were cleaning up = their proverbial act during economic hard times and/or were able to stay = strong fundamentally during hard times. That, combined with technical = strength leads the way. With that in mind, I just weigh the fundamentals = to help sort the list of strong stocks, rather than eliminating all = stocks that don't meet each and every "average for big winners" numbers = from WON. Katherine PS....I'd also look for strong stocks in industries with GRS>=3D60 or = 70. That means you'll also catch groups with *rising* technical = strength. The problem with sticking with the top 40 industries is that = it doesn't identify up and comers and tends to mask (filter out) strong = stocks that are leading the industry up. By the time the stock *gets* to = the top, most of the leaders are extended. ----- Original Message -----=20 From: Duke Miller=20 To: CANSLIM=20 Sent: Wednesday, May 08, 2002 10:01 AM Subject: [CANSLIM] Curious in Florida Good morning all: Since most of you know how I feel about present market environment, = you'll be glad to know this isn't about that. It's about AFTER "that!" = I'll explain: Each day, I download the Excel version of the Daily Screen from IBD. = Then I "play" with it for awhile. I sort various aspects to my personal = preferences: Industry Group Rank (eliminating all above 40); SMR = (eliminating all at C or worse); and so forth. Then I may sort them by = other factors--combined RS & EPS Ratings or Index of Current PE vs. = Projected--to arrive at a another cutoff point. After all that, I put = the remnants into a portfolio with that day's price. Then I follow the = action. =20 What I'm seeing is an amalgam of stocks, the majority of which keep = re-appearing in my final cuts. Some, more than I care to mention, I was = shaken out of earlier this year before going to all cash; some, more = than I care to mention, I wish I'd jumped on. They're the ones that = when I should have jumped on them (I don't have 20-20 hindsight like IBD = does) the right criteria weren't present (usually the darn charts). But = the fact remains, many of the same symbols are there. And they aren't = going away!=20 Further, on May 6, a truly awful day on all three of the big indexes, = I reviewed my Daily Screens portfolios to see which stocks suffered the = least. The list read like a who's-who of my Daily Screens Portfolios. =20 So, here's my question: If these same names are hanging around like = they are, day in and day out for several months now, both on my sorted = screens and in IBD editorial, does it stand to reason that when the = market turns, these stocks that have exhibited such strength in a bad = market should be the BIG winners when M starts to head North? I, like all of you, hear over and over again that we should be = watching for stocks forming good bases at this time, blah, blah, blah. = But it's my opinion 9/11 created one crazy environment for the markets = and a lot of stocks we're seeing making big gains these days are NOT = conforming to the teachings of WON. While composing this, I put these = stocks to one more test. The Canslim Evaluator. I found it interesting = that while all these stocks are floating on the top, the average score = is an unimpressive 6.2 out of 10. In fact, only one was 8 or better: = UOPX at 8. (FYI: Yes, there are 11 criteria on the Evaluator, but I = throw out N--the fact a stock appears within the past 7 days on a Watch = List is immaterial for ranking purposes, IMHO.) Your opinions will be highly valued. Thank you. Duke Everybody should believe in something - I believe I'll have another = glass of great wine! - ------=_NextPart_000_0191_01C1F67D.DE9C1380 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable Message
Hi Duke,
 
I agree with you. Under all circumstances, stocks that outperform = are=20 likely to continue to outperform...UNLESS....they are technically = topping. So,=20 while the market is tanking in general, stocks that are outperforming = might be=20 either consolidating or rising. The only thing that I would disagree on = is that=20 9/11 or no, you need a healthy technical pattern and proper entry = (breakout or=20 pullback) to enter. I look for stocks/groups that are technically = strong, then=20 just use fundamentals as a sorting criteria. I just don't think after a = Bear=20 market and economic  recession that you're more likely to find = fundamental=20 turnarounds and/or fundamentals that stayed mildly strong rather than a = bevy of=20 stocks with hugely accelerating fundamentals. The stocks that are going = to do=20 well are the ones that were cleaning up their proverbial act during = economic=20 hard times and/or were able to stay strong fundamentally during hard = times.=20 That, combined with technical strength leads the way. With that in mind, = I just=20 weigh the fundamentals to help sort the list of strong stocks, rather = than=20 eliminating all stocks that don't meet each and every "average for big = winners"=20 numbers from WON.
 
Katherine
 
PS....I'd also look for strong stocks in industries with = GRS>=3D60 or 70.=20 That means you'll also catch groups with *rising* technical strength. = The=20 problem with sticking with the top 40 industries is that it doesn't = identify up=20 and comers and tends to mask (filter out) strong stocks that are leading = the=20 industry up. By the time the stock *gets* to the top, most of the = leaders are=20 extended.
 
----- Original Message -----
From:=20 Duke=20 Miller
To: CANSLIM
Sent: Wednesday, May 08, 2002 = 10:01=20 AM
Subject: [CANSLIM] Curious in=20 Florida

Good morning=20 all:
 
Since most of = you know how I feel about present market environment, you'll be = glad to=20 know this isn't about that.  It's about AFTER "that!"  = I'll=20 explain:
 
Each day, I = download the=20 Excel version of the Daily Screen from IBD.  Then I "play" = with it=20 for awhile.  I sort various aspects to my personal=20 preferences: Industry Group Rank (eliminating all above 40); SMR=20 (eliminating all at C or worse); and so forth.  Then I may sort = them by=20 other factors--combined RS & EPS Ratings or Index of Current PE = vs.=20 Projected--to arrive at a  another cutoff point. =20 After all that,=20 I put the remnants into a portfolio with that day's price.  Then = I follow=20 the action. 
 
What I'm = seeing is an=20 amalgam of stocks, the majority of which keep re-appearing in my = final=20 cuts.  Some, more than I care to mention, I was shaken out of = earlier=20 this year before going to all cash; some, more than I care to = mention, I=20 wish I'd jumped on.  They're the ones that when I should have = jumped on=20 them (I don't have 20-20 hindsight like IBD does) the right criteria = weren't=20 present (usually the darn charts).  But the fact remains, many of = the=20 same symbols are there.  And they aren't going away! =
 
Further, on = May 6, a=20 truly awful day on all three of the big indexes, I reviewed my Daily=20 Screens portfolios to see which stocks suffered the least.  = The list=20 read like a who's-who of my Daily Screens Portfolios. =20
 
So, here's my question:  = If these=20 same names are hanging around like they are, day in and day out for = several=20 months now, both on my sorted screens and in IBD editorial, does it = stand to=20 reason that when the market turns, these stocks that have exhibited = such=20 strength in a bad market should be the BIG winners when M starts to = head=20 North?
 
I, like all = of you, hear=20 over and over again that we should be watching for stocks forming good = bases=20 at this time, blah, blah, blah.  But it's my opinion 9/11 created = one=20 crazy environment for the markets and a lot of stocks we're seeing = making big=20 gains these days are NOT conforming to the teachings of WON.  = While=20 composing this, I put these stocks to one more test.  The Canslim=20 Evaluator.  I found it interesting that while all these stocks = are=20 floating on the top, the average score is an unimpressive 6.2 out of = 10. =20 In fact, only one was 8 or better:  UOPX at 8.  (FYI:  = Yes,=20 there are 11 criteria on the Evaluator, but I throw out N--the fact a = stock=20 appears within the past 7 days on a Watch List is immaterial for = ranking=20 purposes, IMHO.)
 
Your opinions = will be=20 highly valued.  Thank you.
 
Duke
 
Everybody = should=20 believe in something - I believe I'll have another glass of great=20 wine!
 
- ------=_NextPart_000_0191_01C1F67D.DE9C1380-- - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 8 May 2002 11:47:43 -0400 From: "J. Lobatto" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Curious in Florida This is a multi-part message in MIME format. - ------=_NextPart_000_0020_01C1F686.29E7EB40 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable Ditto... Have noticed today that strong stocks that had been doing well = over the past couple of weeks are either barely participating in today's = rally or even heading south. This could be just a one day tech = rally..... Jon ----- Original Message -----=20 From: Chazmoore@aol.com=20 To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20 Sent: Wednesday, May 08, 2002 11:32 AM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Curious in Florida Duke: I have noticed the same repeats as you have, and yes, I think = they will do well in an up market. However, today we are seeing a mass = movement back to the technical sector, based on CSCO surprising earnings = announcement. Good stocks, like UOPX and WGO are pulling back as = investors run to jump on the tech bandwagon. It is probably a good time = to go to cash and wait for the craziness to subside. Charley=20 - ------=_NextPart_000_0020_01C1F686.29E7EB40 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
Ditto... Have noticed today that = strong=20 stocks that had been doing well over the past couple of weeks are either = barely=20 participating in today's rally or even heading south. This could be just = a one=20 day tech rally.....
 
Jon
----- Original Message -----
From:=20 Chazmoore@aol.com
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=
Sent: Wednesday, May 08, 2002 = 11:32=20 AM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Curious = in=20 Florida

Duke: I = have noticed=20 the same repeats as you have, and yes, I think they will do well in an = up=20 market. However, today we are seeing a mass movement back to the = technical=20 sector, based on CSCO surprising earnings announcement. Good stocks, = like UOPX=20 and WGO are pulling back as investors run to jump on the tech = bandwagon. It is=20 probably a good time to go to cash and wait for the craziness to = subside.=20 Charley - ------=_NextPart_000_0020_01C1F686.29E7EB40-- - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 8 May 2002 10:52:17 -0500 From: "Katherine Malm" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Curious in Florida This is a multi-part message in MIME format. - ------=_NextPart_000_01A0_01C1F67E.6B8B7BA0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable MessageDuke,=20 Sorry, a couple of typos in my original message: "Under most circumstances, stocks that outperform..." and "By the time the industry *gets* to the top, most of the leaders are = extended" Darn those interruptions! Katherine ----- Original Message -----=20 From: Katherine Malm=20 To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20 Sent: Wednesday, May 08, 2002 10:48 AM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Curious in Florida Hi Duke, I agree with you. Under all circumstances, stocks that outperform are = likely to continue to outperform...UNLESS....they are technically = topping. So, while the market is tanking in general, stocks that are = outperforming might be either consolidating or rising. The only thing = that I would disagree on is that 9/11 or no, you need a healthy = technical pattern and proper entry (breakout or pullback) to enter. I = look for stocks/groups that are technically strong, then just use = fundamentals as a sorting criteria. I just don't think after a Bear = market and economic recession that you're more likely to find = fundamental turnarounds and/or fundamentals that stayed mildly strong = rather than a bevy of stocks with hugely accelerating fundamentals. The = stocks that are going to do well are the ones that were cleaning up = their proverbial act during economic hard times and/or were able to stay = strong fundamentally during hard times. That, combined with technical = strength leads the way. With that in mind, I just weigh the fundamentals = to help sort the list of strong stocks, rather than eliminating all = stocks that don't meet each and every "average for big winners" numbers = from WON. Katherine PS....I'd also look for strong stocks in industries with GRS>=3D60 or = 70. That means you'll also catch groups with *rising* technical = strength. The problem with sticking with the top 40 industries is that = it doesn't identify up and comers and tends to mask (filter out) strong = stocks that are leading the industry up. By the time the stock *gets* to = the top, most of the leaders are extended. ----- Original Message -----=20 From: Duke Miller=20 To: CANSLIM=20 Sent: Wednesday, May 08, 2002 10:01 AM Subject: [CANSLIM] Curious in Florida Good morning all: Since most of you know how I feel about present market environment, = you'll be glad to know this isn't about that. It's about AFTER "that!" = I'll explain: Each day, I download the Excel version of the Daily Screen from IBD. = Then I "play" with it for awhile. I sort various aspects to my = personal preferences: Industry Group Rank (eliminating all above 40); = SMR (eliminating all at C or worse); and so forth. Then I may sort them = by other factors--combined RS & EPS Ratings or Index of Current PE vs. = Projected--to arrive at a another cutoff point. After all that, I put = the remnants into a portfolio with that day's price. Then I follow the = action. =20 What I'm seeing is an amalgam of stocks, the majority of which keep = re-appearing in my final cuts. Some, more than I care to mention, I was = shaken out of earlier this year before going to all cash; some, more = than I care to mention, I wish I'd jumped on. They're the ones that = when I should have jumped on them (I don't have 20-20 hindsight like IBD = does) the right criteria weren't present (usually the darn charts). But = the fact remains, many of the same symbols are there. And they aren't = going away!=20 Further, on May 6, a truly awful day on all three of the big = indexes, I reviewed my Daily Screens portfolios to see which stocks = suffered the least. The list read like a who's-who of my Daily Screens = Portfolios. =20 So, here's my question: If these same names are hanging around like = they are, day in and day out for several months now, both on my sorted = screens and in IBD editorial, does it stand to reason that when the = market turns, these stocks that have exhibited such strength in a bad = market should be the BIG winners when M starts to head North? I, like all of you, hear over and over again that we should be = watching for stocks forming good bases at this time, blah, blah, blah. = But it's my opinion 9/11 created one crazy environment for the markets = and a lot of stocks we're seeing making big gains these days are NOT = conforming to the teachings of WON. While composing this, I put these = stocks to one more test. The Canslim Evaluator. I found it interesting = that while all these stocks are floating on the top, the average score = is an unimpressive 6.2 out of 10. In fact, only one was 8 or better: = UOPX at 8. (FYI: Yes, there are 11 criteria on the Evaluator, but I = throw out N--the fact a stock appears within the past 7 days on a Watch = List is immaterial for ranking purposes, IMHO.) Your opinions will be highly valued. Thank you. Duke Everybody should believe in something - I believe I'll have another = glass of great wine! - ------=_NextPart_000_01A0_01C1F67E.6B8B7BA0 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable Message
Duke,
 
Sorry, a couple of typos in my original message:
 
"Under most circumstances, stocks that = outperform..."
and
"By the time the industry *gets* to the top, most of the = leaders=20 are extended"
 
Darn those interruptions!
 
Katherine
----- Original Message -----
From:=20 Katherine=20 Malm
Sent: Wednesday, May 08, 2002 = 10:48=20 AM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Curious = in=20 Florida

Hi Duke,
 
I agree with you. Under all circumstances, stocks that outperform = are=20 likely to continue to outperform...UNLESS....they are technically = topping. So,=20 while the market is tanking in general, stocks that are outperforming = might be=20 either consolidating or rising. The only thing that I would disagree = on is=20 that 9/11 or no, you need a healthy technical pattern and proper entry = (breakout or pullback) to enter. I look for stocks/groups that are = technically=20 strong, then just use fundamentals as a sorting criteria. I just don't = think=20 after a Bear market and economic  recession that you're more = likely to=20 find fundamental turnarounds and/or fundamentals that stayed mildly = strong=20 rather than a bevy of stocks with hugely accelerating fundamentals. = The stocks=20 that are going to do well are the ones that were cleaning up their = proverbial=20 act during economic hard times and/or were able to stay strong = fundamentally=20 during hard times. That, combined with technical strength leads the = way. With=20 that in mind, I just weigh the fundamentals to help sort the list of = strong=20 stocks, rather than eliminating all stocks that don't meet each and = every=20 "average for big winners" numbers from WON.
 
Katherine
 
PS....I'd also look for strong stocks in industries with = GRS>=3D60 or=20 70. That means you'll also catch groups with *rising* technical = strength. The=20 problem with sticking with the top 40 industries is that it doesn't = identify=20 up and comers and tends to mask (filter out) strong stocks that are = leading=20 the industry up. By the time the stock *gets* to the top, most of the = leaders=20 are extended.
 
----- Original Message -----
From:=20 Duke Miller
To: CANSLIM
Sent: Wednesday, May 08, 2002 = 10:01=20 AM
Subject: [CANSLIM] Curious in = Florida

Good = morning=20 all:
 
Since most = of=20 you know how I feel about present market environment, you'll be = glad to=20 know this isn't about that.  It's about AFTER = "that!"  I'll=20 explain:
 
Each day, I = download=20 the Excel version of the Daily Screen from IBD.  Then = I "play"=20 with it for awhile.  I sort various aspects to my = personal=20 preferences: Industry Group Rank (eliminating all above 40); = SMR=20 (eliminating all at C or worse); and so forth.  Then I may sort = them by=20 other factors--combined RS & EPS Ratings or Index of Current PE = vs.=20 Projected--to arrive at a  another cutoff = point. =20 After all=20 that, I put the remnants into a portfolio with that day's = price.  Then=20 I follow the action. 
 
What I'm = seeing is an=20 amalgam of stocks, the majority of which keep re-appearing in = my final=20 cuts.  Some, more than I care to mention, I was shaken out of = earlier=20 this year before going to all cash; some, more than I care to=20 mention, I wish I'd jumped on.  They're the ones that when = I=20 should have jumped on them (I don't have 20-20 hindsight like IBD = does) the=20 right criteria weren't present (usually the darn charts).  But = the fact=20 remains, many of the same symbols are there.  And they aren't = going=20 away!
 
Further, on = May 6, a=20 truly awful day on all three of the big indexes, I reviewed my Daily = Screens portfolios to see which stocks suffered the = least.  The=20 list read like a who's-who of my Daily Screens Portfolios. =20
 
So, here's my = question:  If these=20 same names are hanging around like they are, day in and day out for = several=20 months now, both on my sorted screens and in IBD editorial, does it = stand to=20 reason that when the market turns, these stocks that have exhibited = such=20 strength in a bad market should be the BIG winners when M starts to = head=20 North?
 
I, like all = of you,=20 hear over and over again that we should be watching for stocks = forming good=20 bases at this time, blah, blah, blah.  But it's my opinion 9/11 = created=20 one crazy environment for the markets and a lot of stocks we're = seeing=20 making big gains these days are NOT conforming to the teachings of=20 WON.  While composing this, I put these stocks to = one more=20 test.  The Canslim Evaluator.  I found it interesting that = while=20 all these stocks are floating on the top, the average score is an=20 unimpressive 6.2 out of 10.  In fact, only one was 8 or = better: =20 UOPX at 8.  (FYI:  Yes, there are 11 criteria on the = Evaluator,=20 but I throw out N--the fact a stock appears within the past 7 days = on a=20 Watch List is immaterial for ranking purposes, = IMHO.)
 
Your = opinions will be=20 highly valued.  Thank you.
 
Duke
 
Everybody should=20 believe in something - I believe I'll have another glass of great=20 wine!
 
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