From: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com (canslim-digest) To: canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Subject: canslim-digest V2 #2416 Reply-To: canslim Sender: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Errors-To: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Precedence: bulk Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable X-No-Archive: yes canslim-digest Saturday, May 11 2002 Volume 02 : Number 2416 In this issue: RE: [CANSLIM] M [CANSLIM] Do we quit counting? Re: [CANSLIM] Do we quit counting? [CANSLIM] Gold Stocks Re: [CANSLIM] Gold Stocks [CANSLIM] Re: The Market Trend Is The Major Important Factor In This Market ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Date: Fri, 10 May 2002 18:44:26 -0500 From: "Hill, Ernie" Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] M This message is in MIME format. Since your mail reader does not understand this format, some or all of this message may not be legible. - ------_=_NextPart_001_01C1F87C.9EF6C490 Content-Type: text/plain Eric, Nice analysis, and I agree that it is likely that we have yet to see the lows for the year. E - -----Original Message----- From: Eric Jaenike [mailto:ericjaenike@yahoo.com] Sent: Friday, May 10, 2002 4:48 PM To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] M Wanted to point out a couple of things re: M. The most recent low of 5/7 was not accompanied, IMO, with the type of price/volume activity or sentiment indicators that normally accompany a sustainable bottom. While we started accelerating to the downside, we did not get to the point where the selling pressure was finally spent. Note the decreasing volume from May 1-6 (focusing on the Nas) as the index slid. May 7 saw an increase in volume, but downside stalling as the index barely closed down. Also note that while sentiment indicators (focusing on put/call and bullish/bearish measures) moved in the direction of extremes associated with a true bottom, they did not actually achieve those extreme levels. Now, we have a distribution day appearing in the indexes at the beginning of the nascent rally, indicating that selling pressure still exists. This supports the conclusion that the activity in the last few weeks was insufficient to clear all the sellers out. Of particular interest is the activity on the Russell 200, S&P 400, and the IJS (which tracks the S&P 600 Barra value subindex). These smaller cap indices are starting to underperform and experience selling pressure. This indicates that we are entering "the beginning of the end". By that, I mean that the selling pressure is finally hitting the last pockets of strength in the market: smaller cap stocks, including small cap value. Typically, a bear will attack the weakest groups first, then move one by one through each remaining pocket of strength until most or all groups have been taken down. To me, we appear to be entering that stage. I consider this to be a bullish development. We need, IMO, to clear the sellers out to finally get to the point where we can have a solid bull run. Of course, individual stock positions need to be managed based on the activity of that position, but I would keep the weakness in these smaller cap indices in mind. FWIW. Eric "Hill, Ernie" wrote: Hi group, Once again my turn signal criterion has been met by yesterday's price action. Maybe this time the low made on 5-7 will hold. The coming reaction to this current downtrend will have a hard time getting very far. I call it a reaction because the downtrend was very technically damaging from my point of view, and I don't see much chance of a fundamental change in trend, at least not the way the market looks right now. If the coming reaction is stronger than I anticipate then I may be forced to change my interpretation. I see very strong resistance in the 1103 to 1111 area on the S&P. The highest probability that I see for the top of this reaction is 1111 to occur within four days either side of 5-22. If M is able to take out this resistance level then the next most likely target from which to expect a turn back down would be in the 1126 to 1137 range with the upper part of that range being the most likely target. E ****************************************************************** This email and any files transmitted with it from the ElPaso Corporation are confidential and intended solely for the use of the individual or entity to whom they are addressed. If you have received this email in error please notify the sender. ****************************************************************** _____ Do You Yahoo!? Yahoo! Shopping - Mother's Day is May 12th! ****************************************************************** This email and any files transmitted with it from the ElPaso Corporation are confidential and intended solely for the use of the individual or entity to whom they are addressed. If you have received this email in error please notify the sender. ****************************************************************** - ------_=_NextPart_001_01C1F87C.9EF6C490 Content-Type: text/html Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable

Eric,

 

Nice analysis, and I agree that it is = likely that we have yet to see the lows for the year.

 

E

 

-----Original Message-----
From: Eric Jaenike [mailto:ericjaenike@yahoo.com]
Sent: Friday, May 10, 2002 4= :48 PM
To: canslim@lists.xmission.c= om
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] M

 

Wanted to point out a couple of things re: M. Th= e most recent low of 5/7 was not accompanied, IMO, with the type of price/volume activity or sentiment indicators that normally accompany a sustainable bott= om. While we started accelerating to the downside, we did not get to the point where the selling pressure was finally spent. Note the decreasing volume fr= om May 1-6 (focusing on the Nas) as the index slid. May 7 saw an increase in volume, but downside stalling as the index barely closed down. Also note th= at while sentiment indicators (focusing on put/call and bullish/bearish measur= es) moved in the direction of extremes associated with a true bottom, they did = not actually achieve those extreme levels. Now, we have a distribution day appearing in the indexes at the beginning of the nascent rally, indicating = that selling pressure still exists. This supports the conclusion that the activi= ty in the last few weeks was insufficient to clear all the sellers out. <= /o:p>

Of particular interest is the activity on the Ru= ssell 200, S&P 400, and the IJS (which tracks the S&P 600 Barra value subindex). These smaller cap indices are starting to underperform and experience selling pressure. This indicates that we are entering "the beginning of the end". By that, I mean that the selling pressure is finally hitting the last pockets of strength in the market: smaller cap sto= cks, including small cap value. Typically, a bear will attack the weakest groups first, then move one by one through each remaining pocket of strength until most or all groups have been taken down. To me, we appear to be entering th= at stage.

I consider this to be a bullish development. We = need, IMO, to clear the sellers out to finally get to the point where we can have= a solid bull run. Of course, individual stock positions need to be managed ba= sed on the activity of that position, but I would keep the weakness in these smaller cap indices in mind.

FWIW.

Eric

  "Hill, Ernie" <Ernie.Hill@ElPaso.com> wrote:

Hi group,

 

Once again my turn signal crit= erion has been met by yesterday's price action. Maybe this time the low made on 5= - -7 will hold. The coming reaction to this current downtrend will have a hard t= ime getting very far. I call it a reaction because the downtrend was very technically damaging from my point of view, and I don't see much chance of a fundamental change in trend, at least not the way the market looks right no= w. If the coming reaction is stronger than I anticipate then I may be forced to change my interpretation.

 

I see very strong resistance i= n the 1103 to 1111 area on the S&P. The highest probability that I see for the top of this reaction is 1111 to occur within four days either side of 5-22.= If M is able to take out this resistance level then the next most likely target from which to expect a turn back down would be in the 1126 to 1137 range wi= th the upper part of that range being the most likely target.

 

E



************************************************= ******************
This email and any files transmitted with it from the ElPaso
Corporation are confidential and intended solely= for the
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If you have received this email in error please notify the
sender.
************************************************= ******************

 

= Do You Yahoo!?
Yahoo! Sh= opping - - Mother's Day is May 12th!



******************************************************************
This email and any files transmitted with it from the ElPaso
Corporation are confidential and intended solely for the
use of the individual or entity to whom they are addressed.
If you have received this email in error please notify the
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 - ------_=_NextPart_001_01C1F87C.9EF6C490-- - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 10 May 2002 19:38:49 -0600 From: "rolf hertenstein" Subject: [CANSLIM] Do we quit counting? This is a multi-part message in MIME format. - ------=_NextPart_000_0030_01C1F85A.4EED3C80 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable Still trying to figure out WON rules regarding recognizing M bottoms. Looks to me like the attempted rally is a bust after today, because: 1. we had distribution on the NYSE and NASD (though small volume=20 increases on both) 2. the NASD close low (1600) and close (1601) were both below the intraday low on Wednesday, though the DOW held, and I'm not sure about the S&P. Comments? From Eric's analysis, Wednsday may have been a wishful return to irrational exuberance based on CSCO's improved earnings. Rolf - ------=_NextPart_000_0030_01C1F85A.4EED3C80 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
Still trying to figure out WON = rules=20 regarding recognizing M bottoms.
 
Looks to me like the attempted = rally is a=20 bust after today, because:
1. we had distribution on the = NYSE and NASD=20 (though small volume
    increases on=20 both)
2. the NASD close low (1600) and = close (1601)=20 were both below the
    intraday low = on Wednesday,=20 though the DOW held, and I'm not sure
    about the = S&P.
 
Comments?  From Eric's = analysis,=20 Wednsday may have been a wishful
return to irrational exuberance = based on=20 CSCO's improved earnings.
 
 Rolf
- ------=_NextPart_000_0030_01C1F85A.4EED3C80-- - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 10 May 2002 21:43:10 -0400 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Do we quit counting? This is a multi-part message in MIME format. - ------=_NextPart_000_020D_01C1F86B.AE1056A0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable As I see it, volume on Wednesday was significant, even allowing for a = lot of it being short covering. Volume on Thursday and Friday, on the DOW, Naz and NYSE Composite among = others, was much lower by comparison, in some cases not even up to ADV. NYSE Comp today closed right where it started the big rally on Wed, that = concerns me. But I am still counting for the FTD, since nothing counts = meaningfully for me until starting next Tue. With a downtrending market, = the big move on Wed was bound to bring out sellers, especially if a lot = of it was short covering. Shorts lick their wounds in a rally, then = short again at a higher price. Tom Worley stkguru@bellsouth.net AIM: TexWorley - ----- Original Message -----=20 From: rolf hertenstein=20 To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20 Sent: Friday, May 10, 2002 9:38 PM Subject: [CANSLIM] Do we quit counting? Still trying to figure out WON rules regarding recognizing M bottoms. Looks to me like the attempted rally is a bust after today, because: 1. we had distribution on the NYSE and NASD (though small volume=20 increases on both) 2. the NASD close low (1600) and close (1601) were both below the intraday low on Wednesday, though the DOW held, and I'm not sure about the S&P. Comments? From Eric's analysis, Wednsday may have been a wishful return to irrational exuberance based on CSCO's improved earnings. Rolf - ------=_NextPart_000_020D_01C1F86B.AE1056A0 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
As I see it, volume on Wednesday was = significant, even=20 allowing for a lot of it being short covering.
 
Volume on Thursday and Friday, on the DOW, Naz = and NYSE=20 Composite among others, was much lower by comparison, in some cases not = even up=20 to ADV.
 
NYSE Comp today closed right where it started = the big=20 rally on Wed, that concerns me. But I am still counting for the FTD, = since=20 nothing counts meaningfully for me until starting next Tue. With a = downtrending=20 market, the big move on Wed was bound to bring out sellers, especially = if a lot=20 of it was short covering.  Shorts lick their wounds in a rally, = then short=20 again at a higher price.
 
Tom Worley
stkguru@bellsouth.net
AIM:=20 TexWorley
----- Original Message -----=20
From: rolf=20 hertenstein
Sent: Friday, May 10, 2002 9:38 PM
Subject: [CANSLIM] Do we quit counting?

Still trying to figure out WON = rules=20 regarding recognizing M bottoms.
 
Looks to me like the attempted = rally is a=20 bust after today, because:
1. we had distribution on the = NYSE and NASD=20 (though small volume
    increases on=20 both)
2. the NASD close low (1600) and = close (1601)=20 were both below the
    intraday low = on Wednesday,=20 though the DOW held, and I'm not sure
    about the = S&P.
 
Comments?  From Eric's = analysis,=20 Wednsday may have been a wishful
return to irrational exuberance = based on=20 CSCO's improved earnings.
 
 Rolf
- ------=_NextPart_000_020D_01C1F86B.AE1056A0-- - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Sat, 11 May 2002 12:53:25 EDT From: Chazmoore@aol.com Subject: [CANSLIM] Gold Stocks - --part1_95.1c5ce936.2a0ea685_boundary Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII" Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit Who would have guessed that gold stocks would be in the top 99% industry group? Starting on March 22 I set up a watch list of ten gold stocks. As a group they are up 17%. One, HGMCY, is up 46%. The fundamentals look pretty good. Charley - --part1_95.1c5ce936.2a0ea685_boundary Content-Type: text/html; charset="US-ASCII" Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit Who would have guessed that gold stocks would be in the top 99% industry group? Starting on March 22 I set up a watch list of ten gold stocks. As a group they are up 17%. One, HGMCY, is up 46%. The fundamentals look pretty good.
Charley - --part1_95.1c5ce936.2a0ea685_boundary-- - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Sat, 11 May 2002 15:14:55 -0400 From: "Parnelli" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Gold Stocks This is a multi-part message in MIME format. - ------=_NextPart_000_001C_01C1F8FE.9B5C8CC0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable Hi Charley, Speaking of gold stocks, I hear a lot of people saying that ASL is in a = breakout pattern. Just a thought. Have a great weekend!!! Parnelli - ----- Original Message -----=20 From: Chazmoore@aol.com=20 To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20 Sent: Saturday, May 11, 2002 12:53 PM Subject: [CANSLIM] Gold Stocks Who would have guessed that gold stocks would be in the top 99% = industry group? Starting on March 22 I set up a watch list of ten gold = stocks. As a group they are up 17%. One, HGMCY, is up 46%. The = fundamentals look pretty good.=20 Charley=20 - ------=_NextPart_000_001C_01C1F8FE.9B5C8CC0 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
Hi Charley,
 
Speaking of gold stocks, I hear a lot of people = saying that=20 ASL is in a breakout pattern.  Just a thought.  Have a great=20 weekend!!!
 
Parnelli
 
----- Original Message -----
From:=20 Chazmoore@aol.com
Sent: Saturday, May 11, 2002 = 12:53=20 PM
Subject: [CANSLIM] Gold = Stocks

Who would = have guessed=20 that gold stocks would be in the top 99% industry group? Starting on = March 22=20 I set up a watch list of ten gold stocks. As a group they are up 17%. = One,=20 HGMCY, is up 46%. The fundamentals look pretty good. =
Charley=20 - ------=_NextPart_000_001C_01C1F8FE.9B5C8CC0-- - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Sat, 11 May 2002 23:59:20 EDT From: Spencer48@aol.com Subject: [CANSLIM] Re: The Market Trend Is The Major Important Factor In This Market Eric: I have a feeling that the short/intermediate lows are not going to be seen until there is less advisor bullishness (as delineated in the Psychological Indicators in The Big Picture). I don't believe there will be enough "blood in the streets" (ie. pessimism) until the "bull/bears" in the advisor graph AT LEAST cross each other. The puts/calls and VIX are just too short term to indicate when a bear is over (ie.there will be many bullish indications because a bear trend may have many bull corrections). However, to understand when a bear trend is at an end, you need a longer term indicator. For intermediate term Sentiment, I believe The Bull/Bear Advisors is a good one. jans In a message dated 5/10/2002 5:49:25 PM Eastern Daylight Time, ericjaenike@yahoo.com writes: << Wanted to point out a couple of things re: M. The most recent low of 5/7 was not accompanied, IMO, with the type of price/volume activity or sentiment indicators that normally accompany a sustainable bottom. While we started accelerating to the downside, we did not get to the point where the selling pressure was finally spent. Note the decreasing volume from May 1-6 (focusing on the Nas) as the index slid. May 7 saw an increase in volume, but downside stalling as the index barely closed down. Also note that while sentiment indicators (focusing on put/call and bullish/bearish measures) moved in the direction of extremes associated with a true bottom, they did not actually achieve those extreme levels. Now, we have a distribution day appearing in the indexes at the beginning of the nascent rally, indicating that selling pressure still exists. This supports the conclusion that the activity in the last few weeks was insufficient to clear all the sellers out. Of particular interest is the activity on the Russell 200, S&P 400, and the IJS (which tracks the S&P 600 Barra value subindex). These smaller cap indices are starting to underperform and experience selling pressure. This indicates that we are entering "the beginning of the end". By that, I mean that the selling pressure is finally hitting the last pockets of strength in the market: smaller cap stocks, including small cap value. Typically, a bear will attack the weakest groups first, then move one by one through each remaining pocket of strength until most or all groups have been taken down. To me, we appear to be entering that stage. I consider this to be a bullish development. We need, IMO, to clear the sellers out to finally get to the point where we can have a solid bull run. Of course, individual stock positions need to be managed based on the activity of that position, but I would keep the weakness in these smaller cap indices in mind. FWIW. Eric >> - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ End of canslim-digest V2 #2416 ****************************** To unsubscribe to canslim-digest, send an email to "majordomo@xmission.com" with "unsubscribe canslim-digest" in the body of the message. For information on digests or retrieving files and old messages send "help" to the same address. Do not use quotes in your message.