From: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com (canslim-digest) To: canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Subject: canslim-digest V2 #2499 Reply-To: canslim Sender: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Errors-To: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Precedence: bulk Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable X-No-Archive: yes canslim-digest Saturday, June 15 2002 Volume 02 : Number 2499 In this issue: Re: [CANSLIM] "M" History [CANSLIM] Worley's Weekend Weeview Re: [CANSLIM] Worley's Weekend Weeview Re: [CANSLIM] Worley's Weekend Weeview Re: [CANSLIM] Worley's Weekend Weeview RE:[CANSLIM] S&P index "M" ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Date: Fri, 14 Jun 2002 23:12:55 -0400 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] "M" History I think the market already did that to many of us. - ----- Original Message ----- From: "Cefaloni, John L Jr. [AMSTA-AR-WEA]" To: Sent: Friday, June 14, 2002 11:01 AM Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] "M" History Kelly, www.dictionary.com. I'm just having fun. Just passing time on a boring rainy Friday in the northeast. I'm still waiting for someone to offer me the middle "single digit" on their right hand. JC - -----Original Message----- From: Kelly Short [mailto:kelly.short@neoris.com] Sent: Friday, June 14, 2002 10:59 AM To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] "M" History And thus the debate of "M" history transitions to the debate of "what is a digit". Shall we throw the "thumb as a digit- is it or isn't it a digit" question in for good measure? Thanks for the definition John! I actually had a hard time finding one online- yes, I looked... Kelly - -----Original Message----- From: Cefaloni, John L Jr. [AMSTA-AR-WEA] [mailto:john.cefaloni@us.army.mil] Sent: Friday, June 14, 2002 9:54 AM To: 'canslim@lists.xmission.com' Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] "M" History Sorry, but it doesn't look like letters fit the definition of "digit"... digit \Dig"it\, n. [L. digitus finger; prob. akin to Gr. ?, of uncertain origin; possibly akin to E. toe. Cf. Dactyl.] 1. (Zo["o]l.) One of the terminal divisions of a limb appendage; a finger or toe. The ruminants have the ``cloven foot,'' i. e., two hoofed digits on each foot. --Owen. 2. A finger's breadth, commonly estimated to be three fourths of an inch. 3. (Math.) One of the ten figures or symbols, 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, by which all numbers are expressed; -- so called because of the use of the fingers in counting and computing. Note: By some authorities the symbol 0 is not included with the digits. - -----Original Message----- From: dave.bigham@us.abb.com [mailto:dave.bigham@us.abb.com] Sent: Friday, June 14, 2002 10:44 AM To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] "M" History >Kelly, > >I also wondered whether -1% through -9% could be considered "single digit". > >Cheers, In the hope of putting an inclusive end to it, for all you computer geeks, the letters 'a' through 'f' are single digits too. Right now, I wouldn't mind getting a some f% return on anything! All the best Dave Bigham - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ____________________________________________________________________________ For your protection, this e-mail message has been scanned for viruses. Visit us at http://www.neoris.com/ - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Sat, 15 Jun 2002 10:39:25 -0400 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: [CANSLIM] Worley's Weekend Weeview This is a multi-part message in MIME format. - ------=_NextPart_000_01C0_01C21458.EB7339F0 Content-Type: multipart/alternative; boundary="----=_NextPart_001_01C1_01C21458.EB7339F0" - ------=_NextPart_001_01C1_01C21458.EB7339F0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable M What is there to say? Fourth week in a row that the three major indexes = closed down for the week, losing another 1.2% on the DOW and 2% on = NASDAQ and S&P500. Russell did even worse, down another 2.43%. The often = predicted test of the September lows appear to be upon us. Technical = support levels continue to collapse. #@$!#@^&%@. = Aaaarrrrrgggghhhhhh!!!!! This is no fun anymore. Naz 100 traded below = the Sept lows during the week, altho did manage to close above that on = Friday. Volume was heavier than average on the DOW, NYSE Composite, = S&P500, and the DJ Utilities (which closed up for the week, another = defensive signal). - -------------------------------------------------------------------------= - ------- ECONOMICS Retail sales dropped 0.9%, partially due to cold weather. Core rate = (without autos) dropped 0.4%. Expectations were for a 0.2% drop overall = and a core rate up 0.3%. Consumer spending, which is a critical = component of the economy and recovery from recession, grew 3.2% in the = first quarter and is expected to only grow 1.5% in the current quarter. = Discount retailers, such as WMT, did well however, suggesting that = better pricing was as much a factor as cold weather. PPI (Producer Price Index) fell 0.4%, and was unchanged on the core = rate. Expectations were for both to rise 0.1%. Inflation remains a "no = show", and continues to confirm no action by the Feds on raising = interest rates. Consumer debt service rose to 7.93% of disposable income during the 4th = quarter of 2001, highest rate since 3rd quarter 1987. Percentage going = to mortgage payments also rose, but so did savings rates, to one of the = highest levels in history. Consumer sentiment - Univ. of Michigan's index fell to 90.8, down from = 96.9 in May, surprising experts who expected only a slight drop to 96.6. = Expectations also dropped, to 86.2 from 92.7 as did current economic = conditions expectations, down to 97.9 from 103.5. Industrial - production rose 0.2%, capacity utilization rose to 75.5% = from 75.4% in April, both below expectations of 0.4% and 75.7%. In = April, business inventories fell another 0.2%, matching expectations, = while sales rose 1.8%, sending the ratio of inventory to sales to 1.35, = lowest ever on record. A Reuters poll showed that 12 of 22 economists now think the Feds will = not raise rates until November at the earliest, and there is even some = talk of the Feds cutting rates one more time (I don't believe there will = be a rate cut, but do think we may go the entire year without a rate = hike). - -------------------------------------------------------------------------= - ------- WORLEY'S WATCHLIST WANNABES As always, I will mention specific basing formations, such as c&h, = double bottoms, or non-CANSLIM ones like LLUR (Lower Left Upper Right) = or flat line bases (marked as Bx where x indicates the number of weeks = IMO). Most stocks in this list will have both RS and EPS of 80 or = better, and be close to their 12 month high. I try to glance at the = earnings forecast, and eliminate any less than 20% for this year and = next, but do no other due diligence. I exclude any stocks under any form = of merger / acquisition.=20 The population of stocks I am reviewing this weekend continued to slide = further this past week. Daily lists were not even a page long, and = little of interest. The across the board slide in all indexes hurt a lot = of otherwise good looking charts. ABC - held up well last week ABCW - B6 AMSG - B6 AZO - high handle forming on the cup, volume declining CECO - B8, volume down ENR - young LLUR? weak earnings next year ERES - another possible LLUR, good earnings, consolidating recent gains FNLY - nice B5, fairly tight, volume down last week HOTT - volatile, but potential HTRN - interesting chart, small cap, good forecasts HUG - nice base forming at 40 KFT - surprising growth for a big cap, big name, nice chart in turbulent = times LION - nice base failing, but closed at high end of range on Friday and = almost back to base OVRL - B5 below the high, lot of insider selling lately, owned, in my VR = Fund PETM - LLUR but getting volatile PFG - young LLUR ROST - LLUR SSNC - nice B8, small cap, in my VR Fund WSH - LLUR Happy Hunting, and good luck Tom Worley stkguru@bellsouth.net AIM: TexWorley - ------=_NextPart_001_01C1_01C21458.EB7339F0 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
M
What is there to say? Fourth week in a row that = the three=20 major indexes closed down for the week, losing another 1.2% on the DOW = and 2% on=20 NASDAQ and S&P500. Russell did even worse, down another 2.43%. The = often=20 predicted test of the September lows appear to be upon us. Technical = support=20 levels continue to collapse. #@$!#@^&%@. = Aaaarrrrrgggghhhhhh!!!!! This is no fun anymore. = Naz 100=20 traded below the Sept lows during the week, altho did manage to close = above that=20 on Friday. Volume was heavier than average on the DOW, NYSE = Composite,=20 S&P500, and the DJ Utilities (which closed up for the week, another=20 defensive signal).
ECONOMICS
Retail sales dropped 0.9%, partially due to cold weather. Core rate = (without autos) dropped 0.4%. Expectations were for a 0.2% drop overall = and a=20 core rate up 0.3%. Consumer spending, which is a critical component of = the=20 economy and recovery from recession, grew 3.2% in the first quarter and = is=20 expected to only grow 1.5% in the current quarter. Discount retailers, = such as=20 WMT, did well however, suggesting that better pricing was as much a = factor as=20 cold weather.
 
PPI (Producer Price Index) fell 0.4%, and was unchanged on the core = rate.=20 Expectations were for both to rise 0.1%. Inflation remains a "no show", = and=20 continues to confirm no action by the Feds on raising interest = rates.
 
Consumer debt service rose to 7.93% of disposable income during the = 4th=20 quarter of 2001, highest rate since 3rd quarter 1987. Percentage going = to=20 mortgage payments also rose, but so did savings rates, to one of the = highest=20 levels in history.
 
Consumer sentiment - Univ. of Michigan's index fell to 90.8, down = from 96.9=20 in May, surprising experts who expected only a slight drop to 96.6. = Expectations=20 also dropped, to 86.2 from 92.7 as did current economic conditions = expectations,=20 down to 97.9 from 103.5.
 
Industrial - production rose 0.2%, capacity = utilization=20 rose to 75.5% from 75.4% in April, both below expectations of 0.4% and = 75.7%. In=20 April, business inventories fell another 0.2%, matching expectations, = while=20 sales rose 1.8%, sending the ratio of inventory to sales to 1.35, lowest = ever on=20 record.
 
A Reuters poll showed that 12 of 22 economists = now think=20 the Feds will not raise rates until November at the earliest, and there = is even=20 some talk of the Feds cutting rates one more time (I don't believe there = will be=20 a rate cut, but do think we may go the entire year without a rate = hike).
WORLEY'S WATCHLIST WANNABES
As always, I will mention specific basing formations, such as = c&h,=20 double bottoms, or non-CANSLIM ones like LLUR (Lower Left Upper Right) = or flat=20 line bases (marked as Bx where x indicates the number of weeks IMO). = Most stocks=20 in this list will have both RS and EPS of 80 or better, and be close to = their 12=20 month high. I try to glance at the earnings forecast, and eliminate any = less=20 than 20% for this year and next, but do no other due diligence. I = exclude any=20 stocks under any form of merger / acquisition.=20
 
The population of stocks I am reviewing this weekend continued = to=20 slide further this past week. Daily lists were not even a page long, and = little=20 of interest. The across the board slide in all indexes hurt a lot of = otherwise=20 good looking charts.
 
ABC - held up well last week
ABCW - B6
AMSG - B6
AZO - high handle forming on the cup, volume declining
CECO - B8, volume down
ENR - young LLUR? weak earnings next year
ERES - another possible LLUR, good earnings, consolidating recent=20 gains
FNLY - nice B5, fairly tight, volume down last week
HOTT - volatile, but potential
HTRN - interesting chart, small cap, good forecasts
HUG - nice base forming at 40
KFT - surprising growth for a big cap, big name, nice chart in = turbulent=20 times
LION - nice base failing, but closed at high end of range on Friday = and=20 almost back to base
OVRL - B5 below the high, lot of insider selling lately, owned, in = my VR=20 Fund
PETM - LLUR but getting volatile
PFG - young LLUR
ROST - LLUR
SSNC - nice B8, small cap, in my VR Fund
WSH - LLUR
 
Happy Hunting, and good luck
 
3D""
Tom Worley
stkguru@bellsouth.net
AIM: = TexWorley
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Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Sat, 15 Jun 2002 11:34:16 -0700 From: "oaktoad" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Worley's Weekend Weeview Yup, it is not fun at all.. That may be the sign that the bottom approaches. Only the strong will hang in there and be around when it does turn. I just hope we don't repeat Japan !!! From: Tom Worley . #@$!#@^&%@. Aaaarrrrrgggghhhhhh!!!!! This is no fun anymore. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Sat, 15 Jun 2002 13:45:51 -0500 From: "Norman" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Worley's Weekend Weeview THAT'S IT!! If our perennial bull Tom is frustrated then can the bottom be far off?! Thanks Tom :-) Norm - ----- Original Message ----- From: "oaktoad" To: Sent: Saturday, June 15, 2002 1:34 PM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Worley's Weekend Weeview > Yup, it is not fun at all.. > > That may be the sign that the bottom approaches. Only the strong will hang > in there and be around when it does turn. I just hope we don't repeat Japan > !!! > > > From: Tom Worley > > . #@$!#@^&%@. Aaaarrrrrgggghhhhhh!!!!! This is no fun anymore. > > > - > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. > > - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Sat, 15 Jun 2002 14:47:37 -0600 From: "Patrick Wahl" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Worley's Weekend Weeview At least in the short term you may be correct, good chart here on market sentiment, also I notice the Vix is getting up to a fairly high level, back in April it was near several year lows, and we know what has happened since then. http://www.vtoreport.com/other/sentiment.htm On 15 Jun 2002 at 13:45, Norman wrote: > THAT'S IT!! > > If our perennial bull Tom is frustrated then can the bottom be far off?! - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Sat, 15 Jun 2002 18:01:24 -0500 From: "Hill, Ernie" Subject: RE:[CANSLIM] S&P index "M" This message is in MIME format. Since your mail reader does not understand this format, some or all of this message may not be legible. - ------_=_NextPart_001_01C214C0.928DFB50 Content-Type: text/plain The next significant low turn for the S&P should occur within four trading days of 6-26 with the turn most likely happening during the last half of the window from 6-26 to 7-2. The target price range is 965 - 958. If the turn comes early in the window it is more likely to be in the high part of the range and if the turn comes late in the window it is more likely to be in the low part of the range. E - -----Original Message----- From: Hill, Ernie Sent: Tuesday, June 11, 2002 10:10 PM To: 'canslim@lists.xmission.com' Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] S&P index "M" Today's market action all but confirms that Friday was no aberration, but was indeed a warning signal. I believe the high turn that I forecast for the time window of 6-10 to 6-20 was made today and well short of the low target of 1048.41. Even if the market should manage to make it up to 1048 over the course of the next few days the risk is far greater than the potential reward. The primary reason that I think this short term high turn has been made is because the S&P has closed significantly below the target range of 1034-1027 that I had forecast for the low turn that I had anticipated in my post from 5-21. Also in that post I had mentioned that there were two time windows that the low turn I was looking for could be made. What has happened almost always occurs when the market is in the midst of a strong trend. In this case a down trend. The first and most likely time window for the turn occurs, but the next high turn is made early in the window is often only one or two days up and is very weak with the market turning below target levels. When this happens the second time window for the turn should be expected and the move is exaggerated. This means that the low turn I had originally forecast to occur within four trading days of 6-4 has blown past its target and should now occur within four trading days of 6-26. I haven't had time yet to calculate the likely targets for this turn, but I suspect that this down swing could challenge last Septembers lows before a meaningful move up can be made. I wanted to get this post out tonight to warn those of you who give weight to my analysis. If any of you are holding on to positions expecting the S&P to reach 1048 per my analysis, the market has spoken, it ain't likely to happen. E - -----Original Message----- From: Hill, Ernie Sent: Sunday, June 09, 2002 4:06 PM To: 'canslim@lists.xmission.com' Subject: [CANSLIM] S&P index "M" On Tuesday the S&P index hit a low of 1030.49 right in the middle of the highest probability target range and on the highest probability target day. The next day it closed above the high of the previous day, signaling that a turn had been made. Then the very next day Thursday the market dropped again hitting an intra-day low of 1026.91 right at the bottom of my projected target range. All was still well and within parameters. I fully expected Friday to close above the high for Thursday and again signal that a turn had been made. But alas, all was not well Friday! First the optimistic view. Sometimes these target levels can hold true based on closing prices. This usually occurs when a market aberration causes the target to be overrun, yet prices will still close at or near the target levels. This could have happened Friday with the market closing at 1027.53. If Friday was an aberration then the intra-day low of 1012.45 will hold through the next low turn. Now for the much grimmer forecast. If Friday was not an aberration then it is very possible that the next turn low could break the 1012.45 level and possibly challenge last September's lows. At this point the picture is very muddy we will just have to sit back and let the market tell us where it is going to go. Assuming that Friday was indeed the low point of the current down move (hopefully Monday will give us a confirmation signal), then we can anticipate the next turn high to occur within four trading days of 6-14. The most likely targets for this turn would be a .382 retracement of the last move down which began on 5-17 at 1106.59 and ended on 6-7 at 1012.45 or a .618 retracement of the same move. This would give us a target prices of 1048.41 for the .382 retracement and 1070.62. for the .618 retracement. Both of these targets carry approximately the same probability rating. In either case the next turn high will likely occur very soon and without much strength to the upside. Sorry Duke, it's not what I was hoping for either. For those of you who are strong optimists there is a low probability target of 1104.60 which if it occurs it would be late in the turn window. Of course if the market breaks the 1012.45 level on Monday then this forecast would no longer be valid. E ****************************************************************** This email and any files transmitted with it from the ElPaso Corporation are confidential and intended solely for the use of the individual or entity to whom they are addressed. If you have received this email in error please notify the sender. ****************************************************************** ****************************************************************** This email and any files transmitted with it from the ElPaso Corporation are confidential and intended solely for the use of the individual or entity to whom they are addressed. 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The next significant low turn for the S&P should occur within four trading days of 6-26 with the turn most li= kely happening during the last half of the window from 6-26 to 7-2. The target p= rice range is 965 - 958. If the turn comes early in the window it is more likely to be in the high part of the range and if the turn comes late in the window it is more likely to be in the low part of the range.

 

E

 

-----Original Message-----
From: Hill, Ernie
Sent: Tuesday, June 11, 2002= 10:10 PM
To: 'canslim@lists.xmission.com'=
Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] S&= ;P index "M"

 

= Today's market action all but confirms that Friday was no aberration, but was indee= d a warning signal. I believe the high turn that I forecast for the time window= of 6-10 to 6-20 was made today and well short of the low target of 1048.41. Ev= en if the market should manage to make it up to 1048 over the course of the ne= xt few days the risk is far greater than the potential reward.

=  

= The primary reason that I think this short term high turn has been made is beca= use the S&P has closed significantly below the target range of 1034-1027 th= at I had forecast for the low turn that I had anticipated in my post from 5-21. = Also in that post I had mentioned that there were two time windows that the low = turn I was looking for could be made. What has happened almost always occurs when the market is in the midst of a strong trend. In this case a down trend. The first and most likely time window for the turn occurs, but the next high tu= rn is made early in the window is often only one or two days up and is very we= ak with the market turning below target levels. When this happens the second t= ime window for the turn should be expected and the move is exaggerated. This means that the low turn I had originally forecast to occur within four trading days of= 6-4 has blown past its target and should now occur within four trading days of 6-26. I haven't had time yet to calculate the likely targets for this turn, but I suspect that = this down swing could challenge last Septembers lows before a meaningful move up= can be made.

=  

= I wanted to get this post out tonight to warn those of you who give weight to my analysis. If any of you are holding on to positions expecting the S&P to reach 1048 per my analysis, the market has spoken, it ain't likely to happe= n.

=  

= E

=  

-----Original Message-----
From: Hill, Ernie
Sent: Sunday, June 09, 2002 = 4:06 PM
To: 'canslim@lists.xmission.= com'
Subject: [CANSLIM] S&P i= ndex "M"

 

On Tuesday the S&P index hit a low of 1030.49 right in the middle of the highest probability target range and on the high= est probability target day. The next day it closed above the high of the previo= us day, signaling that a turn had been made. Then the very next day Thursday t= he market dropped again hitting an intra-day low of 1026.91 right at the botto= m of my projected target range. All was still well and within parameters. I fully expected Friday to close above the high for Thursday and again signal that a turn had been made. But alas, all was not well Friday!

 

First the optimistic view. Sometimes these target levels can hold true based on closing prices. This usually occurs when a ma= rket aberration causes the target to be overrun, yet prices will still close at = or near the target levels. This could have happened Friday with the market clo= sing at 1027.53. If Friday was an aberration then the intra-day low of 1012.45 w= ill hold through the next low turn.

 

Now for the much grimmer forecast. If Friday was= not an aberration then it is very possible that the next turn low could break t= he 1012.45 level and possibly challenge last September's lows.

 

At this point the picture is very muddy we will = just have to sit back and let the market tell us where it is going to go.

 

Assuming that Friday was indeed the low point of= the current down move (hopefully Monday will give us a confirmation signal), th= en we can anticipate the next turn high to occur within four trading days of 6= - -14. The most likely targets for this turn would be a .382 retracement of the la= st move down which began on 5-17 at 1106.59 and ended on 6-7 at 1012.45 or a .= 618 retracement of the same move. This would give us a target prices of 1048.41= for the .382 retracement and 1070.62. for the .618 retracement. Both of these targets carry approximately the same probability rating.<= /font>

 

In either case the next turn high will likely oc= cur very soon and without much strength to the upside. Sorry Duke, it's not wha= t I was hoping for either. For those of you who are strong optimists there is a= low probability target of 1104.60 which if it occurs it would be late in the tu= rn window.

 

Of course if the market breaks the 1012.45 level= on Monday then this forecast would no longer be valid.

 

E

 



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