From: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com (canslim-digest) To: canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Subject: canslim-digest V2 #2505 Reply-To: canslim Sender: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Errors-To: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Precedence: bulk Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable X-No-Archive: yes canslim-digest Tuesday, June 18 2002 Volume 02 : Number 2505 In this issue: Re: [CANSLIM] Holy Cow....It's a New Era Indeed... Re: [CANSLIM] "M" History Re: [CANSLIM] "M" History ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Date: Tue, 18 Jun 2002 17:45:50 -0700 From: Harvey Brion Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Holy Cow....It's a New Era Indeed... IMO this change is a good example of what sets IBD apart from the other financial newspapers. Katherine Malm wrote: > Check it out!!! The highlighting is mine.... --Katherine > > The Big Picture > > Wednesday, June 19, 2002 > > Tech Stocks Take A Break But Cyclicals Edge Higher > > BY DAVID SAITO-CHUNG > > INVESTOR'S BUSINESS DAILY > > Tech stocks decided Tuesday to rest after two straight days of gains. > Cyclicals thought otherwise. > > Housing starts surged 11.6% in May, well above the 2.9% rise > economists had expected. Core consumer prices, meanwhile, rose 0.2% > the same month, matching estimates. Translation: good news for > industrial stocks. > > The Nasdaq started higher, but ran out of fuel by midmorning. It ended > off 0.7%. Volume ran just a tad lower, a sign that heavy hitters > weren't eager to sell stocks. > > In contrast, the S&P 500 edged up 0.1%, helped by retail, building, > machinery and energy names. The Dow gained 0.2%. The Amex Morgan > Stanley cyclical index marched ahead 0.6%. NYSE trade cooled as well. > > Small caps also held ground. The S&P SmallCap 600 index, up 3.2% in > the previous two sessions, lost less than 0.1% Tuesday. > > On Thursday, the General Markets & Sectors page in the print edition > will feature for the first time the S&P 600 SmallCap index chart on a > daily basis. It will be sandwiched between the Nasdaq and S&P 500 > charts. The Dow will appear at the bottom of the page on Mondays only. > Four more indexes will fill in this slot on a rotating basis during > the rest of the week. > > In the 1890s, Charles Henry Dow showed vision in creating an index of > stocks as a barometer of the overall U.S. economy. By 1928, his > industrial index had grown to 30 stocks. > > The Dow Jones industrial average was initially an index of railroad > stocks. And rightfully so. Back then, railroads served as a backbone > of economic growth. As the economy changed, so did the Dow's makeup. > The latest changes to the Dow came in October 1999, when Microsoft > (MSFT), Intel (INTC), Home Depot (HD) and SBC Communications (SBC) > kicked out Union Carbide, Chevron (CVX), Goodyear Tire (GT) and Sears > (S). > > But the market has changed so much since then. We are in a brand-new > economy where young companies provide new, exciting products and > services, and excel at it. Success in the stock market means actively > searching for these lesser-known yet fast-growing firms and buying > shares early in their upward cycle. > > Smaller-cap stocks have outperformed their large-cap brethren. Since > Sept. 21, the S&P 600 has gained 22%, the Dow 9%. Many large caps have > dragged their feet for years. > > IBD strives to present the facts — especially facts about great stocks > and those that have the potential to outpace the market. We feel the > S&P 600 will offer readers a clearer view of this new face of America. > The Nasdaq and S&P 500, meanwhile, will help investors keep a finger > on the pulse of the largest companies. > > When the S&P 600 chart comes out on Thursday, it will list the index's > 70 biggest stocks along with their IBD Composite Rating. This feature > will help save you time in singling out the best stocks in the market. > The average IBD Composite Rating among the S&P 600 stocks is 59 vs. 54 > for the Dow 30 stocks. While both indexes had the same average > Earnings Per Share Rating of 57, the average RS Rating for the S&P 600 > was 55 vs. the Dow's 43. > > Meanwhile, the Dow will continue to be featured in IBD every day on > page B4 in the print edition, along with the Dow transport and Dow > utility indexes. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 18 Jun 2002 17:52:07 -0700 From: Harvey Brion Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] "M" History Is 9.99% also single digit? (You're right, Duke, we've been REALLY bored.) Duke Miller wrote: > Been in the Keys and just back today with 78 Canslim messages to > peruse. You guys must really be bored! Anyway, really enjoying this > topic. Can't resist interjecting here. The 0% along with the > negative single digits (as well as negative double digits) cannot be > eliminated. Why? What if "it" was -20% to start and is now -11%? > Isn't that a single digit growth of 9%?Yawn.Duke > > -----Original Message----- > From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com > [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com] On Behalf Of Tom > Worley > Sent: Friday, June 14, 2002 11:09 PM > To: canslim@lists.xmission.com > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] "M" History > > not in context, because "growth" was specified. That > requirement also eliminates 0%. > ----- Original Message ----- > From: Cefaloni, John L Jr. [AMSTA-AR-WEA] > To: 'canslim@lists.xmission.com'Sent: Friday, June 14, 2002 > 10:02 AMSubject: RE: [CANSLIM] "M" History > Kelly,I also wondered whether -1% through -9% could be > considered "single digit".Cheers,John C. > > -----Original Message----- > From: Kelly Short [mailto:kelly.short@neoris.com] > Sent: Friday, June 14, 2002 10:00 AM > To: canslim@lists.xmission.com > Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] "M" History > > Group,When I posed the "M" History question > yesterday I was simply seeking information, but > apparently I began a full raging debate. (Or maybe > no one wants to focus on the daily market > movements right now) I am pleased to see that > everyone in the group feels free to share their > insights, resources, and conjectures. Thank you > everyone for sending me links to online resources. > Winston- your breakdown of the past century was > extremely interesting- thank you for sharing it > with the group. Fanus and Charley- you both bring > up good points and if the two of you ever decide > to duke it out in person please let me know in > advance- I'd like to put some money on squares. As > for the single digit debate- so far we've > established that 1%, 2%, 3%, 4%, 5%, 6%, 7%, 8% > and 9% are indeed single digits- but how about > 0%?Well- it's Friday and the market is already > down 172 points by 9:00am. My watch portfolio has > checked out and left for Vegas. I think I'll just > go download some pirated music. Have a great > weekend everyone!Kelly > > -----Original Message----- > From: Cefaloni, John L Jr. > [AMSTA-AR-WEA] > [mailto:john.cefaloni@us.army.mil] > Sent: Friday, June 14, 2002 7:39 AM > To: 'canslim@lists.xmission.com' > Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] "M" History > > Uhhh, so are 1%, 2%, 3%, 4%, 6%, 7%, 8% > and 9%. > > -----Original Message----- > From: Dan Forant > [mailto:dforant1@nycap.rr.com] > > Sent: Friday, June 14, 2002 > 8:01 AM > To: canslim@lists.xmission.com > > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] "M" > History > > Ummm, 5% is a single digit > > ----- Original > Message ----- > From: Hill, Ernie > To: > 'canslim@lists.xmission.com' > Sent: Thursday, June > 13, 2002 10:13 PM > Subject: RE: > [CANSLIM] "M" > History > > I believe what he > said was single > digit growth. > > E > > -----Original > Message----- > From: Dan Forant > [mailto:dforant1@nycap.rr.com] > > Sent:Thursday, June > 13, 20028:24 PM > To: > canslim@lists.xmission.com > > Subject: Re: > [CANSLIM] "M" > History > > Didn't Buffer also > predict just 5% > market growth for > years to come?? > DanF > > ----- > Original > Message > ----- > From: > Hill, > Ernie > To: > 'canslim@lists.xmission.com' > Sent:Thursday, > June 13, > 200212:59 > PM > Subject: > RE: > [CANSLIM] > "M" > History > I don't > have a > resource > to > contribute > at this > time but, > I have > seen two > interviews > lately on > CNBC one > with Art > Cashin (an > "experienced" > floor > trader) > and the > other with > Warren > Buffet. > Both of > these men > made > reference > to a 17.6 > year cycle > and point > out that > the major > bull > market > that ended > in 2000 > began in > 1983. > > They both > expect the > next 17.6 > years to > be lean by > comparison. > Mr. buffet > even went > on to talk > about how > the market > has > performed > all the > way back > to 1929, > and > pointed > out the > influence > of this > cycle and > how the > market was > affected > by it > despite > how the > economy > was > performing. > > Unfortunately > I did not > have my > full > attention > focused on > either > interview > so I > missed > much of > what was > said about > specific > time > periods > and how > the market > related to > the > economy > during > those time > periods. > > However, > what I did > hear did > not sound > very > encouraging > for the > next 15 > years! > > E > > > ----Original > Message----- > > From: > Kelly > Short > [mailto:kelly.short@neoris.com] > > Sent: > Thursday, > June 13, > 2002 10:46 > AM > To: > canslim@lists.xmission.com > > Subject: > [CANSLIM] > "M" > History > > Since "M" > is not > being > nice- I > have > focused my > attention > in the > short-term > on "M's" > history > over the > past 100 - > 150 years > to try to > better > understand > what makes > this > machine > tick. I > have found > a couple > of > resources > that cover > this > topic, > provide > timelines, > etc. but > would > appreciate > any known > quality > resources > the group > has used > in the > past for > such > purposes. > > Kelly > Short > > Business > Development > Manager > > Neoris, > Inc. > > (817) > 731-0995 > > > ailto:kelly.short@neoris.com > > http://www.neoris.com > > - > > -To > subscribe/unsubscribe, > email > "majordomo@xmission.com" > > -In the > email > body, > write > "subscribe > canslim" > or > > > "unsubscribe > canslim".Do > not use > quotes in > your > email. > > > ***************************************************************** > > This email > and any > files > transmitted > with it > from the > ElPaso > > orporation > are > confidential > and > intended > solely for > the > use of the > individual > or entity > to whom > they are > addressed. > > If you > have > received > this email > in error > please > notify > the > sender. > > ***************************************************************** > > ****************************************************************** > > This email and any > files transmitted > with it from the > ElPaso > Corporation are > confidential and > intended solely for > the > use of the > individual or entity > to whom they are > addressed. > If you have received > this email in error > please notify the > sender. > > ***************************************************************** > > ----------------------------------------- > For your protection, this e-mail message > has been scanned for viruses. > > Visit us at http://www.neoris.com/ > ----------------------------------------- > > > > - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 18 Jun 2002 21:48:09 -0400 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] "M" History This is a multi-part message in MIME format. - ------=_NextPart_000_0248_01C21711.D62643B0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable MessageSorry Duke, in my book that is only a decrease in the rate of = loss, which I don't define as growth. For me, growth must be a positive = number in absolute terms. - ----- Original Message -----=20 From: Duke Miller=20 To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20 Sent: Tuesday, June 18, 2002 6:29 PM Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] "M" History Been in the Keys and just back today with 78 Canslim messages to peruse. = You guys must really be bored! =20 Anyway, really enjoying this topic. Can't resist interjecting here. = The 0% along with the negative single digits (as well as negative double = digits) cannot be eliminated. Why? What if "it" was -20% to start and = is now -11%? Isn't that a single digit growth of 9%? Yawn. Duke -----Original Message----- From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com = [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com] On Behalf Of Tom Worley Sent: Friday, June 14, 2002 11:09 PM To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] "M" History not in context, because "growth" was specified. That requirement also = eliminates 0%. ----- Original Message -----=20 From: Cefaloni, John L Jr. [AMSTA-AR-WEA]=20 To: 'canslim@lists.xmission.com'=20 Sent: Friday, June 14, 2002 10:02 AM Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] "M" History Kelly, I also wondered whether -1% through -9% could be considered "single = digit". Cheers, John C. -----Original Message----- From: Kelly Short [mailto:kelly.short@neoris.com] Sent: Friday, June 14, 2002 10:00 AM To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] "M" History Group, When I posed the "M" History question yesterday I was simply seeking = information, but apparently I began a full raging debate. (Or maybe no = one wants to focus on the daily market movements right now) I am pleased = to see that everyone in the group feels free to share their insights, = resources, and conjectures. Thank you everyone for sending me links to = online resources. Winston- your breakdown of the past century was = extremely interesting- thank you for sharing it with the group. Fanus = and Charley- you both bring up good points and if the two of you ever = decide to duke it out in person please let me know in advance- I'd like = to put some money on squares. As for the single digit debate- so far = we've established that 1%, 2%, 3%, 4%, 5%, 6%, 7%, 8% and 9% are indeed = single digits- but how about 0%? Well- it's Friday and the market is already down 172 points by = 9:00am. My watch portfolio has checked out and left for Vegas. I think = I'll just go download some pirated music. Have a great weekend everyone! Kelly -----Original Message----- From: Cefaloni, John L Jr. [AMSTA-AR-WEA] = [mailto:john.cefaloni@us.army.mil] Sent: Friday, June 14, 2002 7:39 AM To: 'canslim@lists.xmission.com' Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] "M" History Uhhh, so are 1%, 2%, 3%, 4%, 6%, 7%, 8% and 9%. -----Original Message----- From: Dan Forant [mailto:dforant1@nycap.rr.com] Sent: Friday, June 14, 2002 8:01 AM To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] "M" History Ummm, 5% is a single digit ----- Original Message -----=20 From: Hill, Ernie=20 To: 'canslim@lists.xmission.com'=20 Sent: Thursday, June 13, 2002 10:13 PM Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] "M" History I believe what he said was single digit growth. =20 E =20 -----Original Message----- From: Dan Forant [mailto:dforant1@nycap.rr.com]=20 Sent: Thursday, June 13, 2002 8:24 PM To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] "M" History =20 Didn't Buffer also predict just 5% market growth for years to = come??=20 =20 DanF ----- Original Message -----=20 From: Hill, Ernie=20 To: 'canslim@lists.xmission.com'=20 Sent: Thursday, June 13, 2002 12:59 PM Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] "M" History =20 I don't have a resource to contribute at this time but, I = have seen two interviews lately on CNBC one with Art Cashin (an = "experienced" floor trader) and the other with Warren Buffet. Both of = these men made reference to a 17.6 year cycle and point out that the = major bull market that ended in 2000 began in 1983. =20 They both expect the next 17.6 years to be lean by = comparison. Mr. buffet even went on to talk about how the market has = performed all the way back to 1929, and pointed out the influence of = this cycle and how the market was affected by it despite how the economy = was performing. =20 Unfortunately I did not have my full attention focused on = either interview so I missed much of what was said about specific time = periods and how the market related to the economy during those time = periods. =20 However, what I did hear did not sound very encouraging for = the next 15 years! =20 E=20 =20 -----Original Message----- From: Kelly Short [mailto:kelly.short@neoris.com]=20 Sent: Thursday, June 13, 2002 10:46 AM To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Subject: [CANSLIM] "M" History =20 Since "M" is not being nice- I have focused my attention in = the short-term on "M's" history over the past 100 - 150 years to try to = better understand what makes this machine tick. I have found a couple of = resources that cover this topic, provide timelines, etc. but would = appreciate any known quality resources the group has used in the past = for such purposes.=20 =20 Kelly Short =20 Business Development Manager Neoris, Inc. (817) 731-0995 mailto:kelly.short@neoris.com http://www.neoris.com =20 =20 - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. = ****************************************************************** This email and any files transmitted with it from the ElPaso = Corporation are confidential and intended solely for the=20 use of the individual or entity to whom they are addressed.=20 If you have received this email in error please notify the=20 sender. = ****************************************************************** = ****************************************************************** This email and any files transmitted with it from the ElPaso=20 Corporation are confidential and intended solely for the=20 use of the individual or entity to whom they are addressed.=20 If you have received this email in error please notify the=20 sender. = ****************************************************************** - -------------------------------------------------------------------------= - - For your protection, this e-mail message has been scanned for = viruses.=20 Visit us at http://www.neoris.com/=20 - -------------------------------------------------------------------------= - - - ------=_NextPart_000_0248_01C21711.D62643B0 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable Message=
Sorry Duke, in my book that is only a decrease = in the rate=20 of loss, which I don't define as growth. For me, growth must be a = positive=20 number in absolute terms.
 
----- Original Message -----=20
From: Duke=20 Miller
Sent: Tuesday, June 18, 2002 6:29 PM
Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] "M" History

Been in the = Keys and just=20 back today with 78 Canslim messages to peruse.  You guys must = really be=20 bored! 
 
Anyway, really = enjoying=20 this topic.  Can't resist interjecting here.  The 0% along = with the=20 negative single digits (as well as negative double digits) cannot be=20 eliminated.  Why?  What if "it" was -20% to start and is now=20 - -11%?  Isn't that a single digit growth of 9%?
 
Yawn.
 
Duke
-----Original Message-----
From:=20 owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com = [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]=20 On Behalf Of Tom Worley
Sent: Friday, June 14, 2002 = 11:09=20 PM
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
Subject: Re: = [CANSLIM]=20 "M" History

not in context, because "growth" was = specified. That=20 requirement also eliminates 0%.
 
----- Original Message -----=20
From: Cefaloni, John L Jr.=20 [AMSTA-AR-WEA]
Sent: Friday, June 14, 2002 10:02 AM
Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] "M" History

Kelly,
 
I=20 also wondered whether -1% through -9% could be considered "single=20 digit".
 
Cheers,
John=20 C.
-----Original Message-----
From: Kelly Short=20 [mailto:kelly.short@neoris.com]
Sent: Friday, June 14, = 2002 10:00=20 AM
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=
Subject:=20 RE: [CANSLIM] "M" History

Group,
 
When I posed the "M" History question yesterday I was = simply seeking=20 information, but apparently I began a full raging debate. (Or maybe = no one=20 wants to focus on the daily market movements right now) I am pleased = to see=20 that everyone in the group feels free to share their insights, = resources,=20 and conjectures. Thank you everyone for sending me links to online=20 resources. Winston- your breakdown of the past century was extremely = interesting- thank you for sharing it with the group. Fanus and = Charley- you=20 both bring up good points and if the two of you ever decide to duke = it out=20 in person please let me know in advance- I'd like to put some money = on=20 squares. As for the single digit debate- so far we've established = that 1%,=20 2%, 3%, 4%, 5%, 6%, 7%, 8% and 9% are indeed single digits- but how = about=20 0%?
 
Well- it's Friday and the market is already down 172 points = by=20 9:00am. My watch portfolio has checked out and left for Vegas. I = think I'll=20 just go download some pirated music. Have a great weekend=20 everyone!
 
Kelly
-----Original Message-----
From: Cefaloni, John = L Jr.=20 [AMSTA-AR-WEA] [mailto:john.cefaloni@us.army.mil]
Sent: = Friday,=20 June 14, 2002 7:39 AM
To:=20 'canslim@lists.xmission.com'
Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] "M"=20 History

Uhhh, so are 1%, 2%, 3%, 4%, 6%, 7%, 8% and = 9%.
-----Original Message-----
From: Dan Forant=20 [mailto:dforant1@nycap.rr.com]
Sent: Friday, June 14, = 2002=20 8:01 AM
To: = canslim@lists.xmission.com
Subject: Re:=20 [CANSLIM] "M" History

Ummm, 5% is a single = digit
----- Original Message ----- =
From:=20 Hill, Ernie
To: 'canslim@lists.xmission.com'= =20
Sent: Thursday, June = 13, 2002=20 10:13 PM
Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] = "M"=20 History

I = believe=20 what he said was single digit = growth.

 

E

 

-----Original=20 Message-----
From:=20 Dan Forant [mailto:dforant1@nycap.rr.com]
Sent: = Thursday, June = 13,=20 2002 = 8:24=20 PM
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] = "M"=20 History

 

Didn't Buffer=20 also predict just 5% market growth for years to come??=20

 

DanF

-----=20 Original Message -----

From:=20 Hill, Ernie=20

Sent:=20 Thursday, June = 13,=20 2002 = 12:59=20 PM

Subject:=20 RE: [CANSLIM] "M" History

 

I don't have=20 a resource to contribute at this time but, I have seen two=20 interviews lately on CNBC one with Art Cashin (an = "experienced"=20 floor trader) and the other with Warren Buffet. Both of = these men=20 made reference to a 17.6 year cycle and point out that the = major=20 bull market that ended in 2000 began in=20 1983.

 

They both=20 expect the next 17.6 years to be lean by comparison. Mr. = buffet even=20 went on to talk about how the market has performed all the = way back=20 to 1929, and pointed out the influence of this cycle and how = the=20 market was affected by it despite how the economy was=20 performing.

 

Unfortunately I did not have my = full=20 attention focused on either interview so I missed much of = what was=20 said about specific time periods and how the market related = to the=20 economy during those time = periods.

 

However,=20 what I did hear did not sound very encouraging for the next = 15=20 years!

 

E=20

 

-----Original = Message-----
From: Kelly=20 Short [mailto:kelly.short@neoris.com]
Sent: Thursday, = June 13,=20 2002 10:46 AM
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
Subject:=20 [CANSLIM] "M" History

 

Since "M" is=20 not being nice- I have focused my attention in the = short-term on=20 "M's" history over the past 100 - 150 years to try to better = understand what makes this machine tick. I have found a = couple of=20 resources that cover this topic, provide timelines, etc. but = would=20 appreciate any known quality resources the group has used in = the=20 past for such purposes.

 

Kelly=20 Short

 

Business=20 Development Manager

Neoris,=20 Inc.

(817)=20 731-0995

mailto:kelly.short@neoris.com

http://www.neoris.com

 

 

-

-To=20 subscribe/unsubscribe, email=20 "majordomo@xmission.com"

-In the=20 email body, write "subscribe canslim"=20 or

-"unsubscribe canslim".  Do not use quotes = in your=20 email.



*****************************************************************= *
This=20 email and any files transmitted with it from the ElPaso=20
Corporation=20 are confidential and intended solely for the=20
use=20 of the individual or entity to whom they are addressed.=20
If=20 you have received this email in error please notify the=20
sender.
*****************************************************************= *



********************************************************= **********
This=20 email and any files transmitted with it from the ElPaso=20
Corporation are confidential and intended solely for the =
use=20 of the individual or entity to whom they are addressed.
If = you=20 have received this email in error please notify the=20 =
sender.
**********************************************************= ********
For your protection, this e-mail message has been scanned for = viruses.=20

Visit us at http://www.neoris.com/=20

- ------=_NextPart_000_0248_01C21711.D62643B0-- - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ End of canslim-digest V2 #2505 ****************************** To unsubscribe to canslim-digest, send an email to "majordomo@xmission.com" with "unsubscribe canslim-digest" in the body of the message. For information on digests or retrieving files and old messages send "help" to the same address. Do not use quotes in your message.