From: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com (canslim-digest) To: canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Subject: canslim-digest V2 #2647 Reply-To: canslim Sender: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Errors-To: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Precedence: bulk Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable X-No-Archive: yes canslim-digest Tuesday, July 23 2002 Volume 02 : Number 2647 In this issue: RE: [CANSLIM] M where will it bottom? [CANSLIM] Ernie, OT Re: [CANSLIM] M where will it bottom? Re: [CANSLIM] M where will it bottom? [CANSLIM] The Acc/Dis numbers are near an all-time low. Re: [CANSLIM] M where will it bottom? ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Date: Mon, 22 Jul 2002 21:14:31 -0600 From: "Patrick Wahl" Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] M where will it bottom? I think he probably meant the S&P, currently around 819. On 22 Jul 2002 at 23:04, Duke Miller wrote: > Let me get this straight. Ernie is predicting we'll bottom out with the > DJIA at 560 to 575? That's an "ultimate" bottom? All I can say to that is, > "Ernie, what you smokin' man?" - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 22 Jul 2002 23:58:41 EDT From: RWElmer@aol.com Subject: [CANSLIM] Ernie, OT - --part1_15c.10c027ea.2a6e2e71_boundary Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII" Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit Ernie, Sorry to see you go. I always enjoyed your forecasts and thought it very brave and generous of you to post them, although I totally agree that this is a very nurturing and deserving bunch to do it for. I have sent a blank E-mail requesting future forecasts. Thanks again and best of luck in your trading. Robert W. Elmer Coldwell Banker First Shasta 2837 Bechelli Ln. Redding, CA 96002 RWElmer@aol.com 221-9556 or 1-800-348-7939 ext.156 www.robertelmer.com - --part1_15c.10c027ea.2a6e2e71_boundary Content-Type: text/html; charset="US-ASCII" Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit Ernie,

Sorry to see you go. I always enjoyed your forecasts and thought it very brave and generous of you to post them, although I totally agree that this is a very nurturing and deserving bunch to do it for. I have sent a blank E-mail requesting future forecasts.

Thanks again and best of luck in your trading.  

Robert W. Elmer
Coldwell Banker First Shasta
2837 Bechelli Ln.
Redding, CA 96002
RWElmer@aol.com
221-9556 or 1-800-348-7939 ext.156
www.robertelmer.com - --part1_15c.10c027ea.2a6e2e71_boundary-- - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 22 Jul 2002 22:44:54 -0700 From: Ian Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] M where will it bottom? This is a multi-part message in MIME format. - --Boundary_(ID_w9kC/lLjFX9+fNaKoIJZhA) Content-type: text/plain; charset=iso-8859-1 Content-transfer-encoding: 7BIT Ernie: Best of luck in your trading, and thanks for your input on this forum. Many years ago, I read that there have been studies done in behavioural psychology showing that in general, it takes about 3 years to completely reverse long, deeply held beliefs. The bullish beliefs that traders have had since March 2000 ('buy the dips'), are definitely starting to crack now, but they are still present. March of next year would complete the 3-year cycle where the new belief system would be that 'tech is dead, telecom is dead, and these stocks are NEVER going to go up'. Interesting. Cheers, Ian ----- Original Message ----- From: Hill, Ernie To: 'canslim@lists.xmission.com' Sent: Monday, July 22, 2002 7:26 PM Subject: [CANSLIM] M where will it bottom? This forecast is meant to give you a good idea of where to expect this bear market to finally end. The head and shoulders pattern the market has made predicts a bottom to be made in the 560-575 area. A .618 retracement of the entire move from 1982 to 2000 would give a target of 566 (arithmetic scale). Using a log scale a .382 retracement of the same move yields a target price of 550. These are three targets obtained by different means all of which point to roughly the same price. I expect there will be at least one good strong rally before the ultimate bottom is reached. As for the time frame when this bottom will occur that is much more difficult to forecast, however, I do not expect it to happen before March of next year. CANSLIM friends this will be my final post. It's difficult for me to leave this list because I feel I have formed a friendship with many of you. This is certainly one of the finest lists on the net. I hope some of you have benefited from my posts, I know I have benefited from the posts made by many of you. Unfortunately, I am just too busy now to read all of the e-mail I get every day. Since I am now 100% trader and no longer practice CANSLIM I guess it is time for me to move on. If any of you are interested in following my market forecasts you can do so by sending a blank e-mail to: snpforecasts-subscribe@topica.com This is not a discussion group it is only my distribution list to those who follow my forecasts. It also provides me with a public record of my forecasts. Eventually the bear will hibernate and you guys will again RULE the investment world. I will miss ya'll E ****************************************************************** This email and any files transmitted with it from the ElPaso Corporation are confidential and intended solely for the use of the individual or entity to whom they are addressed. If you have received this email in error please notify the sender. ****************************************************************** - --Boundary_(ID_w9kC/lLjFX9+fNaKoIJZhA) Content-type: text/html; charset=iso-8859-1 Content-transfer-encoding: 7BIT
Ernie:
 
Best of luck in your trading, and thanks for your input on this forum.
 
Many years ago, I read that there have been studies done in behavioural psychology showing that in general, it takes about 3 years to completely reverse long, deeply held beliefs. The bullish beliefs that traders have had since March 2000 ('buy the dips'), are definitely starting to crack now, but they are still present. March of next year would complete the 3-year cycle where the new belief system would be that 'tech is dead, telecom is dead, and these stocks are NEVER going to go up'. Interesting.
 
Cheers,
 
Ian
 
 
----- Original Message -----
From: Hill, Ernie
To: 'canslim@lists.xmission.com'
Sent: Monday, July 22, 2002 7:26 PM
Subject: [CANSLIM] M where will it bottom?

This forecast is meant to give you a good idea of where to expect this bear market to finally end. The head and shoulders pattern the market has made predicts a bottom to be made in the 560-575 area. A .618 retracement of the entire move from 1982 to 2000 would give a target of 566 (arithmetic scale). Using a log scale a .382 retracement of the same move yields a target price of 550.

 

These are three targets obtained by different means all of which point to roughly the same price. I expect there will be at least one good strong rally before the ultimate bottom is reached. As for the time frame when this bottom will occur that is much more difficult to forecast, however, I do not expect it to happen before March of next year.

 

CANSLIM friends this will be my final post. It's difficult for me to leave this list because I feel I have formed a friendship with many of you. This is certainly one of the finest lists on the net. I hope some of you have benefited from my posts, I know I have benefited from the posts made by many of you.

 

Unfortunately, I am just too busy now to read all of the e-mail I get every day. Since I am now 100% trader and no longer practice CANSLIM I guess it is time for me to move on.

 

If any of you are interested in following my market forecasts you can do so by sending a blank e-mail to:

 

snpforecasts-subscribe@topica.com

 

This is not a discussion group it is only my distribution list to those who follow my forecasts. It also provides me with a public record of my forecasts.

 

Eventually the bear will hibernate and you guys will again RULE the investment world.

 

I will miss ya'll

 

E

 



******************************************************************
This email and any files transmitted with it from the ElPaso
Corporation are confidential and intended solely for the
use of the individual or entity to whom they are addressed.
If you have received this email in error please notify the
sender.
******************************************************************
- --Boundary_(ID_w9kC/lLjFX9+fNaKoIJZhA)-- - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 23 Jul 2002 07:12:24 -0400 From: "Dan Forant" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] M where will it bottom? This is a multi-part message in MIME format. - ------=_NextPart_000_005B_01C23218.4BB2AD00 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="Windows-1252" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable Good luck Ernie, thanks for all your input. DanF ----- Original Message -----=20 From: Hill, Ernie=20 To: 'canslim@lists.xmission.com'=20 Sent: Monday, July 22, 2002 10:26 PM Subject: [CANSLIM] M where will it bottom? This forecast is meant to give you a good idea of where to expect this = bear market to finally end. The head and shoulders pattern the market = has made predicts a bottom to be made in the 560-575 area. A .618 = retracement of the entire move from 1982 to 2000 would give a target of = 566 (arithmetic scale). Using a log scale a .382 retracement of the same = move yields a target price of 550. =20 These are three targets obtained by different means all of which point = to roughly the same price. I expect there will be at least one good = strong rally before the ultimate bottom is reached. As for the time = frame when this bottom will occur that is much more difficult to = forecast, however, I do not expect it to happen before March of next = year. =20 CANSLIM friends this will be my final post. It's difficult for me to = leave this list because I feel I have formed a friendship with many of = you. This is certainly one of the finest lists on the net. I hope some = of you have benefited from my posts, I know I have benefited from the = posts made by many of you. =20 Unfortunately, I am just too busy now to read all of the e-mail I get = every day. Since I am now 100% trader and no longer practice CANSLIM I = guess it is time for me to move on. =20 If any of you are interested in following my market forecasts you can = do so by sending a blank e-mail to: =20 snpforecasts-subscribe@topica.com=20 =20 This is not a discussion group it is only my distribution list to = those who follow my forecasts. It also provides me with a public record = of my forecasts. =20 Eventually the bear will hibernate and you guys will again RULE the = investment world. =20 I will miss ya'll =20 E =20 ****************************************************************** This email and any files transmitted with it from the ElPaso=20 Corporation are confidential and intended solely for the=20 use of the individual or entity to whom they are addressed.=20 If you have received this email in error please notify the=20 sender. ****************************************************************** - ------=_NextPart_000_005B_01C23218.4BB2AD00 Content-Type: text/html; charset="Windows-1252" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
Good luck Ernie, thanks for all your=20 input.
 
DanF
----- Original Message -----
From:=20 Hill,=20 Ernie
Sent: Monday, July 22, 2002 = 10:26=20 PM
Subject: [CANSLIM] M where will = it=20 bottom?

This forecast is meant to give you a good = idea of=20 where to expect this bear market to finally end. The head and = shoulders=20 pattern the market has made predicts a bottom to be made in the 560-575 area. A = .618=20 retracement of the entire move from 1982 to 2000 would give a target = of 566 (arithmetic = scale). Using=20 a log scale a .382 retracement of the same move yields a target price = of 550.

 

These are three targets obtained by = different means=20 all of which point to roughly the same price. I expect there will be = at least=20 one good strong rally before the ultimate bottom is reached. As for = the time=20 frame when this bottom will occur that is much more difficult to = forecast,=20 however, I do not expect it to happen before March of next=20 year.

 

CANSLIM friends this will be my final post. = It's=20 difficult for me to leave this list because I feel I have formed a = friendship=20 with many of you. This is certainly one of the finest lists on the = net. I hope=20 some of you have benefited from my posts, I know I have benefited from = the=20 posts made by many of you.

 

Unfortunately, I am just too busy now to = read all of=20 the e-mail I get every day. Since I am now 100% trader and no longer = practice=20 CANSLIM I guess it is time for me to move = on.

 

If any of you are interested in following my = market=20 forecasts you can do so by sending a blank e-mail=20 to:

 

snpforecasts-subscribe@= topica.com=20

 

This is not a discussion group it is only my = distribution list to those who follow my forecasts. It also provides = me with a=20 public record of my forecasts.

 

Eventually the bear will hibernate and you = guys will=20 again RULE the investment world.

 

I will miss = ya'll

 

E

 



********************************************************= **********
This=20 email and any files transmitted with it from the ElPaso =
Corporation are=20 confidential and intended solely for the
use of the individual or = entity=20 to whom they are addressed.
If you have received this email in = error=20 please notify the=20 =
sender.
**********************************************************= ********
 - ------=_NextPart_000_005B_01C23218.4BB2AD00-- - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 23 Jul 2002 07:03:58 -0500 From: "Fred Richards" Subject: [CANSLIM] The Acc/Dis numbers are near an all-time low. This is a multi-part message in MIME format. - ------=_NextPart_000_0002_01C23217.1DEB6D40 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit We have updated the charts for the Accumulate/Distribution numbers from IBD. The number of stocks rated "A" in Acc/Dis is near an all-time low. http://www.adrich.com/SI/Info/A's.htm Fred Richards Corruptisima republica plurimae leges. [The more corrupt a republic, the more laws.] - - Tacitus, Annuals III 27 www.adrich.com - ------=_NextPart_000_0002_01C23217.1DEB6D40 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
We = have updated the=20 charts for the Accumulate/Distribution numbers from = IBD.
 
The = number of stocks=20 rated "A" in Acc/Dis is near an all-time low.
 
http://www.adrich.com/SI/I= nfo/A's.htm
 
Fred Richards
 
Corruptisima republica plurimae = leges.  [The=20 more corrupt a republic, the more laws.]  - - Tacitus, Annuals III=20 27
 
www.adrich.com
 
- ------=_NextPart_000_0002_01C23217.1DEB6D40-- - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 23 Jul 2002 07:49:51 -0500 From: "Alicia Lensing" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] M where will it bottom? This is a multi-part message in MIME format. - ------=_NextPart_000_0041_01C2321D.86FEA170 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable Ernie: I, too, am sorry to hear that you are departing the group. I have only = been a participant for the past 4 months, but have always admired and = appreciated the information you provided. Best of luck as a trader, and = I would greatly like to continue to hear your market take. Thank you, alicia lensing ----- Original Message -----=20 From: Hill, Ernie=20 To: 'canslim@lists.xmission.com'=20 Sent: Monday, July 22, 2002 9:26 PM Subject: [CANSLIM] M where will it bottom? This forecast is meant to give you a good idea of where to expect this = bear market to finally end. The head and shoulders pattern the market = has made predicts a bottom to be made in the 560-575 area. A .618 = retracement of the entire move from 1982 to 2000 would give a target of = 566 (arithmetic scale). Using a log scale a .382 retracement of the same = move yields a target price of 550. =20 These are three targets obtained by different means all of which point = to roughly the same price. I expect there will be at least one good = strong rally before the ultimate bottom is reached. As for the time = frame when this bottom will occur that is much more difficult to = forecast, however, I do not expect it to happen before March of next = year. =20 CANSLIM friends this will be my final post. It's difficult for me to = leave this list because I feel I have formed a friendship with many of = you. This is certainly one of the finest lists on the net. I hope some = of you have benefited from my posts, I know I have benefited from the = posts made by many of you. =20 Unfortunately, I am just too busy now to read all of the e-mail I get = every day. Since I am now 100% trader and no longer practice CANSLIM I = guess it is time for me to move on. =20 If any of you are interested in following my market forecasts you can = do so by sending a blank e-mail to: =20 snpforecasts-subscribe@topica.com=20 =20 This is not a discussion group it is only my distribution list to = those who follow my forecasts. It also provides me with a public record = of my forecasts. =20 Eventually the bear will hibernate and you guys will again RULE the = investment world. =20 I will miss ya'll =20 E =20 ****************************************************************** This email and any files transmitted with it from the ElPaso=20 Corporation are confidential and intended solely for the=20 use of the individual or entity to whom they are addressed.=20 If you have received this email in error please notify the=20 sender. ****************************************************************** - ------=_NextPart_000_0041_01C2321D.86FEA170 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
Ernie:
 
I, too, am sorry to = hear that you=20 are departing the group.  I have only been a participant for the = past 4=20 months, but have always admired and appreciated the information you=20 provided.  Best of luck as a trader, and I would greatly like to = continue=20 to hear your market take.
 
Thank = you,
 
alicia=20 lensing
----- Original Message -----
From:=20 Hill,=20 Ernie
To: 'canslim@lists.xmission.com' =
Sent: Monday, July 22, 2002 = 9:26 PM
Subject: [CANSLIM] M where will = it=20 bottom?

This forecast is meant to give you a good = idea of=20 where to expect this bear market to finally end. The head and = shoulders=20 pattern the market has made predicts a bottom to be made in the 560-575 area. A = .618=20 retracement of the entire move from 1982 to 2000 would give a target = of 566 (arithmetic = scale). Using=20 a log scale a .382 retracement of the same move yields a target price = of 550.

 

These are three targets obtained by = different means=20 all of which point to roughly the same price. I expect there will be = at least=20 one good strong rally before the ultimate bottom is reached. As for = the time=20 frame when this bottom will occur that is much more difficult to = forecast,=20 however, I do not expect it to happen before March of next=20 year.

 

CANSLIM friends this will be my final post. = It's=20 difficult for me to leave this list because I feel I have formed a = friendship=20 with many of you. This is certainly one of the finest lists on the = net. I hope=20 some of you have benefited from my posts, I know I have benefited from = the=20 posts made by many of you.

 

Unfortunately, I am just too busy now to = read all of=20 the e-mail I get every day. Since I am now 100% trader and no longer = practice=20 CANSLIM I guess it is time for me to move = on.

 

If any of you are interested in following my = market=20 forecasts you can do so by sending a blank e-mail=20 to:

 

snpforecasts-subscribe@= topica.com=20

 

This is not a discussion group it is only my = distribution list to those who follow my forecasts. It also provides = me with a=20 public record of my forecasts.

 

Eventually the bear will hibernate and you = guys will=20 again RULE the investment world.

 

I will miss = ya'll

 

E

 



********************************************************= **********
This=20 email and any files transmitted with it from the ElPaso =
Corporation are=20 confidential and intended solely for the
use of the individual or = entity=20 to whom they are addressed.
If you have received this email in = error=20 please notify the=20 =
sender.
**********************************************************= ********
 - ------=_NextPart_000_0041_01C2321D.86FEA170-- - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ End of canslim-digest V2 #2647 ****************************** To unsubscribe to canslim-digest, send an email to "majordomo@xmission.com" with "unsubscribe canslim-digest" in the body of the message. For information on digests or retrieving files and old messages send "help" to the same address. Do not use quotes in your message.