From: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com (canslim-digest) To: canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Subject: canslim-digest V2 #2756 Reply-To: canslim Sender: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Errors-To: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Precedence: bulk Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable X-No-Archive: yes canslim-digest Thursday, August 8 2002 Volume 02 : Number 2756 In this issue: Re: [CANSLIM] Current Case Study - XRAY ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Date: Thu, 8 Aug 2002 16:27:39 -0400 From: "Winston Little" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Current Case Study - XRAY This is a multi-part message in MIME format. - ------=_NextPart_000_0028_01C23EF8.857F01E0 Content-Type: multipart/alternative; boundary="----=_NextPart_001_0029_01C23EF8.857F01E0" - ------=_NextPart_001_0029_01C23EF8.857F01E0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable Mike: A quick set of comments from a novice: 1. If the pattern is Cup with handle: The cup starting (31 May and ending 31 July) appears to be a V = formation, which is less desirable for success. 2. The handle starting 31July and ending yesterday is either FLAT or = V-SHAPED (neither are desirable) 3. High volume persisted in the handle period ... again undesirable. 4. Looking at a longer term charts (1 year, 3 year , 5 year and 10 year) = show a pattern approaching "Ascending bases" as described in Investor's = Corner today (8 Aug). 5. Institutional ownership is high as you point out at 76% or 60 million = of the 78 million shares outstanding. Recent activity in this area shows 6.2 million shares bought and = 6.3 million sold. My suspicion here is that some WINDOW DRESSING by the = institutional managers was occurring. 6. Insider sales do not normally alarm me, but the CEO Miles unloaded $6 = million dollars of shares at prices between $33 and $50, leaving him = with 64,000 shares worth $2.5 million. 7. I have been watching XRAY in the past, and it often comes up in the = IBD Where The Big Money Flows, but so far I have not been convinced = enough to buy it. ----- Original Message -----=20 From: Mike Gibbons=20 To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20 Sent: Thursday, August 08, 2002 3:26 PM Subject: [CANSLIM] Current Case Study - XRAY In view of the interest in current cases rather than 20-20 hindsight, = and discussions to aid the learning process, I offer XRAY as an = example, which broke out today from a CwH pattern with short handle Firstly, let me add the disclaimer that I'm a programmer who was = introduced to CANSLIM as a development project, and I'm 1 year into the = 3 yr learning curve, so further comment by the "experts" is welcomed to = improve my own understanding. Firstly the fundamentals which are very strong, with the exception = that Institutional Ownership is already quite high. There are differing = views on what the level should be, but somewhere less than 30% would be = better. Additional DD would be required to determine why pre-tax profit = margins are decreasing and if that is cause for concern. (This = information is drawn from yahoo/multex not IBD) =20 C Current Earnings Earnings per share growth of at least 25% in = the most recent quarter Most recent quarter year on year growth. = (Published financial data). 35.00 % =20 Latest three quarters of sales growth should be a minimum of 25% = Average year on year growth for last 3 quarters. (Published financial = data). 51.00 % =20 Sales growth should be accelerating. Difference in year on year = growth rates over last 3 quarters. (Published financial data). 23.00 =20 A Strong Annual Earnings Growth Annual earnings growth for the = last three years of 25% or greater 3 year compound EPS growth rate. = (Published financial data). 53.00 % =20 Return on equity should be at least 17% Published financial = data. 21.00 %=20 Pretax profit margins should be increasing Profit Margin for = most recent quarter minus profit margin 1 year ago. (Published financial = data). -1.00 =20 N New Products, Services or Leadership If a company has a = dynamic new product or service, or is capitalizing on new conditions in = the economy, this can have a dramatic impact on the price of a stock. = Buy stocks just as they emerge from a sound "base" pattern and make new = price highs. Not Known =20 S Supply and Demand Watch the demand for shares by looking at = the percentage change in volume for each of your stocks. Analyze a = stock's daily and weekly price and volume changes. The up/down volume = ratio measures the ratio of accumulation days to distribution days over = the last 50 days. 0.90 =20 L Leading Stocks in Leading Industry Groups Nearly 50% of a = stock's price action is a result of its industry group's performance. = Focus on the top industry groups, and within those groups select stocks = with the best price performance. Multex Industry Rank ( 0 - 99 ) (26 week relative performance). 90 =20 Multex Rank within Industry ( 0 - 99 ). Provided for = informational purposes only. (4 week relative performance) 22 =20 The stock's Relative Price Strength Rating should be in the 80s = or 90s We calculate RS daily by ranking all NYSE, AMEX and NASDAQ = stocks. Our RS algorithm is described here. It correlates well with = IBD's. Value. Score pro-rated in range 60-79. 83 =20 I Institutional Sponsorship You want at least a few of the = better performing mutual funds owning the stock. They're the ones who = will drive the stock up on a sustained basis. Institutional Ownership. = Value in range 5 - 30% needed to score 1. 79.00 % =20 No. of Institutions. Provided for informational purposes only. = 568 =20 M Market Direction You can buy the best stocks, but if the = general market is weak, most likely your stocks will be weak also. = Because Market Direction is not specific to any one particular stock, we = do not evaluate it on a per stock basis. =20 Look at the chart below. Note that the handle is only 3 days long. = This is normally insufficient to have shaken out the potential sellers = and WON recommends that a handle should be at least 1-2 weeks long, = otherwise a breakout is prone to failure. Also the volume in the handle = has not dried up. This is often the case in the early days of handle = formation and we would like to see the volume decrease below the ADV and = the price wedge downwards as the handle progresses. Look at the volume coming up the right side of the cup - consistently = above the 50 ADV accompanied by big price positive price movements, with = only two days when the stock closed slightly down. It would have been = better if the volume had been below the ADV on those days, in which case = the stock would have earned a higher CQ (Chart Quality) score. Note the RS line. This is quite high at 83, but has advanced only = slightly over the last few days despite significant price gains in this = stock. This indicates that other stocks are doing at least as well. The 50 day up/down volume is at 0.90. Values less than 1 mean that the = down volume days exceed the up volume days. However, the trend of the = line is upwards, which is a positive sign. I'll go out on a limb and say my guess is that todays breakout will = not be sustained (although its holding now - just) and it will continue = to form a handle.=20 I conclude that this is one to watch but not to buy right now. Aloha, Mike Gibbons Proactive Technologies, LLC http://www.proactech.com - ------=_NextPart_001_0029_01C23EF8.857F01E0 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
Mike:
 
A quick set of comments from a novice:
 
1. If the pattern is  Cup with = handle:
     The cup starting (31 May = and ending=20 31 July) appears to be a V formation, which is less desirable for=20 success.
2. The handle starting 31July and ending yesterday = is either=20 FLAT or V-SHAPED (neither are desirable)
3. High volume persisted in the handle period ... = again=20 undesirable.
4. Looking at a longer term charts (1 year, 3 year , = 5 year=20 and 10 year) show a pattern approaching "Ascending bases" as described = in=20 Investor's Corner today (8 Aug).
5. Institutional ownership is high as you point out = at 76% or=20 60 million of the 78 million shares outstanding.
     Recent activity in this = area shows=20 6.2 million shares bought and 6.3 million sold. My suspicion here is = that some=20 WINDOW DRESSING by the institutional managers was = occurring.
6. Insider sales do not normally alarm me, but the = CEO Miles=20 unloaded $6  million dollars of shares at prices between $33 and = $50,=20 leaving him with 64,000 shares worth $2.5 million.
7. I have been watching XRAY in the past, and it = often comes=20 up in the IBD Where The Big Money Flows, but so far I have = not  been=20 convinced enough to buy it.
----- Original Message -----
From:=20 Mike = Gibbons=20
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=
Sent: Thursday, August 08, 2002 = 3:26=20 PM
Subject: [CANSLIM] Current Case = Study -=20 XRAY

In=20 view of the interest in current cases rather than 20-20 = hindsight,  and discussions to = aid the=20 learning process,  I offer XRAY as an = example, which=20 broke out today from a CwH pattern with short = handle
 
Firstly, let me add the disclaimer that I'm = a=20 programmer who was introduced to CANSLIM as a development project, and = I'm 1=20 year into the 3 yr learning curve, so further comment by the "experts" = is=20 welcomed to improve my own understanding.
 
Firstly the fundamentals which are very strong, with = the=20 exception that Institutional Ownership is already quite high. There = are=20 differing views on what the level should be, but somewhere less than = 30% would=20 be better. Additional DD would be required to = determine why=20 pre-tax profit margins are decreasing and if that is cause = for=20 concern. (This information is drawn from yahoo/multex not=20 IBD)  
 
C
Current = Earnings
Earnings per share growth of at = least 25%=20 in the most recent quarter

Most recent quarter year on year = growth.=20 (Published financial data).

 35.00 % =
Latest three quarters of sales = growth=20 should be a minimum of 25%
Average year on year growth for = last 3=20 quarters. (Published financial data).
 51.00 % =
Sales growth should be = accelerating.=20
Difference in year on year = growth rates=20 over last 3 quarters. (Published financial data). =
23.00 =
A
Strong Annual Earnings=20 Growth
Annual earnings growth for the = last three=20 years of 25% or greater
3 year compound EPS growth = rate. (Published=20 financial data).
 53.00 % =
Return on equity should be at = least=20 17%
Published financial = data.
 21.00 = %
Pretax profit margins should be = increasing
Profit Margin for most recent = quarter minus=20 profit margin 1 year ago. (Published financial = data).
 -1.00 =
N
New Products, Services or = Leadership
If a company has a dynamic new = product or=20 service, or is capitalizing on new conditions in the economy, = this can=20 have a dramatic impact on the price of a stock. Buy stocks just = as they=20 emerge from a sound "base" pattern and make new price highs.=20
Not = Known  
S
Supply and Demand =
Watch the demand for shares by = looking at=20 the percentage change in volume for each of your stocks. Analyze = a=20 stock's daily and weekly price and volume changes. =
The up/down volume ratio = measures the ratio=20 of accumulation days to distribution days over the last 50=20 days.
 0.90 =
L
Leading Stocks in Leading = Industry Groups=20
Nearly 50% of a stock's price = action is a=20 result of its industry group's performance. Focus on the top = industry=20 groups, and within those groups select stocks with the best = price=20 performance.
Multex Industry Rank ( 0 - 99 = )
(26 week=20 relative performance).
 90 =

Multex Rank within Industry ( 0 - = 99 ).=20 Provided for informational purposes only.
(4 week relative=20 performance)

 22 =
The stock's Relative Price = Strength Rating=20 should be in the 80s or 90s
We calculate RS daily by = ranking all NYSE,=20 AMEX and NASDAQ stocks. Our RS algorithm is described=20 here. It correlates well with IBD's. = Value.=20 Score pro-rated in range 60-79.
 83 =
I
Institutional = Sponsorship
You want at least a few of the = better=20 performing mutual funds owning the stock. They're the ones who = will=20 drive the stock up on a sustained basis.
Institutional Ownership. Value = in range 5 -=20 30% needed to score 1.
 79.00 % =
No. of Institutions. Provided = for=20 informational purposes only.
 568 =
M
Market Direction =
You can buy the best stocks, = but if the=20 general market is weak, most likely your stocks will be weak=20 also.
Because Market Direction is not = specific to=20 any one particular stock, we do not evaluate it on a per stock=20 basis.
  
 
Look at the chart below. Note that the = handle is only=20 3 days long. This is normally insufficient to have shaken out the = potential=20 sellers and WON recommends that a handle should be at least 1-2 weeks = long,=20 otherwise a breakout is prone to failure. Also the volume in the = handle has=20 not dried up. This is often the case in the early days of handle = formation and=20 we would like to see the volume decrease below the ADV and the price = wedge=20 downwards as the handle progresses.
 
Look at the volume coming up the right = side of the=20 cup - consistently above the 50 ADV accompanied by big price positive = price=20 movements, with only two days when the stock closed slightly down. It = would=20 have been better if the volume had been below the ADV on those days, = in which=20 case the stock would have earned a higher CQ (Chart Quality)=20 score.

 Note the RS=20 line. This is quite high at 83, but has advanced only=20 slightly over the last few days despite = significant=20 price gains in this stock. This indicates that other stocks are = doing at=20 least as well.
 
The 50 day = up/down volume=20 is at 0.90. Values less than 1 mean that the down volume days exceed = the up=20 volume days. However, the trend of the line is upwards, which is a = positive=20 sign.
 
 I'll go out on a limb and = say my guess is=20 that todays breakout will not be sustained (although its holding now -=20 just) and it will continue to form a handle.=20
 
I conclude that this is one to watch but = not to buy=20 right=20 now.
=
 
3D""
 
 
Aloha,
 
Mike = Gibbons
Proactive = Technologies,=20 LLC
http://www.proactech.com
 
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