From: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com (canslim-digest) To: canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Subject: canslim-digest V2 #2776 Reply-To: canslim Sender: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Errors-To: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Precedence: bulk Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable X-No-Archive: yes canslim-digest Saturday, August 10 2002 Volume 02 : Number 2776 In this issue: Re: [CANSLIM] FW: Summer Relief Rally- Is It Possible? and Energy Power in the News Re: [CANSLIM] CCR - I offer this up for dissection Re: [CANSLIM] FW: Summer Relief Rally- Is It Possible? and Energy Power in th... Re: [CANSLIM] FW: Summer Relief Rally- Is It Possible? and Energy Power in th... Re: [CANSLIM] FW: Summer Relief Rally- Is It Possible? and Energy Power in th... ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Date: Sat, 10 Aug 2002 17:32:58 -0400 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] FW: Summer Relief Rally- Is It Possible? and Energy Power in the News This is a multi-part message in MIME format. - ------=_NextPart_000_017E_01C24093.F82994C0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="Windows-1252" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable Mike, what I was referring to is the following quote: This past week the NASDAQ broke up its' downtrend line (shown in red) = for the first time since the sell off steepened in mid May, leading to = three months of bloodletting on all the major indexes.=20 In addition, the NASDAQ has recently put in a double bottom. The second = bottom was slightly higher than the first. Technicians will tell you = this is a bullish indicator in the short term.=20 Last week was not the first time Naz broke up thru its downtrend line, = even on their own chart. And I don't know of any technicians that prefer = the second bottom to remain above the first bottom, least that is not = how I was trained on them. A good undercut doesn't guarantee there = won't be a third bottom, but the failure to undercut increases the odds = of a failed rally, and the "shortness" of the term for the rally is = thereby very much less predictable. The only ones I know that would like = this would be shorters looking for an improved selling point, before the = market tanks again to even lower levels. This is contrary to their = advice on NVDA and several other stocks, beaten down by the market, = which they see as bounce plays (which is what I gathered they see on = NVDA, buy for a bounce only, not because of the fundies). I would add that the last double bottom by NASDAQ fooled me into false = belief (hope??) that the bottom had finally been reached. My standards = this time are more severe, even tho I remain fully invested, and beat = the indexes again last week. - ----- Original Message -----=20 From: Mike Gibbons=20 To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20 Sent: Saturday, August 10, 2002 5:21 PM Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] FW: Summer Relief Rally- Is It Possible? and = Energy Power in the News Thanks Tom for explaining the apparant contradiction - I need to look = beyond the end of my nose. Regarding the double-bottom, I presume you are referring to the fact = that the second bottom didn't undercut the first. I guess a third bottom = is somewhere in the NAS's future, which seemed to be the conclusion = anyway. Aloha, Mike Gibbons Proactive Technologies, LLC http://www.proactech.com -----Original Message----- From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com = [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of Tom Worley Sent: Saturday, August 10, 2002 11:03 AM To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] FW: Summer Relief Rally- Is It Possible? and = Energy Power in the News Mike, as the newsletter says, NVDA indicated the future looks bleak. = Past 4 qtrs of fundamentals are very strong, but now they will be = comparing to those strong fundies for the next 4 qtrs. And forecast from = DGO indicates a 16% decline in earnings this year, and only a 7% gain = from that lower level next year (which won't quite get them back to what = they made last year). I also disagree with some of the statements made = in the newsletter about the Naz chart, I am not impressed with their = reading, or their understanding of a double bottom either. @lyris.otcjournal.com=20 - ------=_NextPart_000_017E_01C24093.F82994C0 Content-Type: text/html; charset="Windows-1252" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
Mike, what I was referring to is the following=20 quote:

This past week the NASDAQ broke = up its'=20 downtrend line (shown in red) for the first time since the sell off = steepened in=20 mid May, leading to three months of bloodletting on all the major=20 indexes.=20

In addition, the NASDAQ has = recently put in=20 a double bottom. The second bottom was slightly higher than the first.=20 Technicians will tell you this is a bullish indicator in the short=20 term.

Last week was not the first time Naz = broke up thru=20 its downtrend line, even on their own chart. And I don't know of any = technicians=20 that prefer the second bottom to remain above the first bottom, least = that is=20 not how I was trained on them.  A good undercut doesn't guarantee = there=20 won't be a third bottom, but the failure to undercut increases the odds = of a=20 failed rally, and the "shortness" of the term for the rally is thereby = very much=20 less predictable. The only ones I know that would like this would be = shorters=20 looking for an improved selling point, before the market tanks again to = even=20 lower levels. This is contrary to their advice on NVDA and several other = stocks,=20 beaten down by the market, which they see as bounce plays (which is what = I=20 gathered they see on NVDA, buy for a bounce only, not because of the=20 fundies).

I would add that the last double bottom by NASDAQ = fooled me=20 into false belief (hope??) that the bottom had finally been reached. My=20 standards this time are more severe, even tho I remain fully invested, = and beat=20 the indexes again last week.

 

----- Original Message -----=20
From: Mike=20 Gibbons
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=
Sent: Saturday, August 10, 2002 5:21 PM
Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] FW: Summer Relief Rally- Is It = Possible? and=20 Energy Power in the News

Thanks Tom for explaining the apparant contradiction - I need = to look=20 beyond the end of my nose.
 
Regarding the double-bottom, I presume you are referring to the = fact that=20 the second bottom didn't undercut the first. I guess a third bottom is = somewhere=20 in the NAS's future, which seemed to be the conclusion=20 anyway.
 
Aloha,
 
Mike = Gibbons
Proactive = Technologies,=20 LLC
http://www.proactech.com
-----Original Message-----
From:=20 owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com=20 [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of Tom=20 Worley
Sent: Saturday, August 10, 2002 11:03 = AM
To:=20 canslim@lists.xmission.com
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] FW: Summer = Relief=20 Rally- Is It Possible? and Energy Power in the = News

Mike, as the newsletter says, NVDA indicated = the future=20 looks bleak.  Past 4 qtrs of fundamentals are very strong, but = now they=20 will be comparing to those strong fundies for the next 4 qtrs. And = forecast=20 from DGO indicates a 16% decline in earnings this year, and only a 7% = gain=20 from that lower level next year (which won't quite get them back to = what they=20 made last year).  I also disagree with some of the statements = made in the=20 newsletter about the Naz chart, I am not impressed with their reading, = or=20 their understanding of a double bottom=20 either.
@lyris.otcjournal.com
- ------=_NextPart_000_017E_01C24093.F82994C0-- - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Sat, 10 Aug 2002 17:46:40 -0400 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] CCR - I offer this up for dissection This is a multi-part message in MIME format. - ------=_NextPart_000_019F_01C24095.E20C31F0 Content-Type: multipart/alternative; boundary="----=_NextPart_001_01A0_01C24095.E20C31F0" - ------=_NextPart_001_01A0_01C24095.E20C31F0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable MessageKelly, I do not see any CWH pattern, either on a daily or weekly = chart, using DGO. Could you be more specific? On a weekly chart I see a = rough base that extends back to Dec 2000, but it would not give me a = buying signal unless I could buy close to the bottom of this base (38 or = so). - ----- Original Message -----=20 From: Kelly Short=20 To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20 Sent: Thursday, August 08, 2002 4:50 PM Subject: [CANSLIM] CCR - I offer this up for dissection CCR - Countrywide Cr Inds Inc EPS growth could be better but are we more forgiving over the past 3 = qtrs (after all- CCR is positive EPS growth for past 3 qtrs which in = itself is an accomplishment)? Appears to be coming out of CWH formation = (all though not as beautiful a formation as the Mona Lisa or anything = IBD would show us). Thoughts? IBD Ratings =20 Smart Select 99 =20 EPS Rating 94 =20 RPS 89 =20 Industry Group Rank A =20 S+P M+ROE A =20 A/D A+ =20 =20 =20 Technical Rating 98 =20 Fundamental Rating 96 =20 Attractiveness Rating 99 =20 Group's Technical Rating 79 =20 Group's Fundamental Rating 86 =20 =20 =20 =20 Rank within Industry Group =20 Industry Rank (08/08/02) 32 =20 =20 Overall 100 =20 Technical 100 =20 Fundamental 91 =20 Attriveness 100 =20 Top 5 Companies w/in Group =20 =20 CCR =20 =20 DORL =20 =20 NCEN =20 =20 NDE =20 =20 FRE =20 Group % Chg to Date 2% =20 Group % Chg Last 12 mths 4% =20 Group % Chg Last 4 weeks 4% =20 =20 =20 Performance =20 =20 Up/Down Vol 1.3 =20 3 Yr. EPS Growth 16% =20 3 Yr. Sales Growth 25% =20 EPS Growth (Quarterly) % Chg=20 Qtr -1 $0.64 5%=20 Qtr -2 $0.61 8%=20 Qtr -3 $0.56 5%=20 Qtr -4 $0.53 8%=20 Qtr -5 $0.49 0%=20 Qtr -6 $0.49 =20 =20 Revenue Growth =20 Qtr -1 293,159 3%=20 Qtr -2 285,799 1%=20 Qtr -3 283,199 1%=20 Qtr -4 281,332 3%=20 Qtr -5 272,860 0%=20 Qtr -6 272,489 =20 - ------=_NextPart_001_01A0_01C24095.E20C31F0 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable Message
Kelly, I do not see any CWH pattern, either on a = daily or=20 weekly chart, using DGO. Could you be more specific? On a weekly chart I = see a=20 rough base that extends back to Dec 2000, but it would not give me a = buying=20 signal unless I could buy close to the bottom of this base (38 or=20 so).
 
----- Original Message -----=20
From: Kelly Short
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=
Sent: Thursday, August 08, 2002 4:50 PM
Subject: [CANSLIM] CCR - I offer this up for = dissection

CCR -=20 Countrywide Cr Inds Inc
 
EPS=20 growth could be better but are we more forgiving over the past 3 qtrs = (after=20 all- CCR is positive EPS growth for past 3 qtrs which in itself is an=20 accomplishment)? Appears to be coming out of CWH formation (all though = not as=20 beautiful a formation as the Mona Lisa or anything IBD would show us).=20 Thoughts?
 
IBD Ratings
Smart Select 99
EPS Rating 94
RPS 89
Industry Group Rank A
S+P M+ROE A
A/D A+
Technical Rating 98
Fundamental Rating 96
Attractiveness Rating 99
Group's Technical = Rating 79
Group's Fundamental = Rating 86
Rank within Industry Group
Industry Rank = (08/08/02) 32
Overall 100
Technical 100
Fundamental 91
Attriveness 100
Top 5 Companies w/in = Group
=20
 
 CCR
=20
 
 DORL
=20
 
 NCEN
=20
 
 NDE
=20
 
 FRE
Group % Chg = to Date 2%
Group % Chg = Last 12=20 mths 4%
Group % Chg = Last 4=20 weeks 4%
Performance
Up/Down Vol 1.3
3 Yr. EPS Growth 16%
3 Yr. Sales Growth 25%
EPS Growth = (Quarterly) % Chg
Qtr -1 $0.64 5%
Qtr -2 $0.61 8%
Qtr -3 $0.56 5%
Qtr -4 $0.53 8%
Qtr -5 $0.49 0%
Qtr -6 $0.49
Revenue Growth
Qtr -1 293,159 3%
Qtr -2 285,799 1%
Qtr -3 283,199 1%
Qtr -4 281,332 3%
Qtr -5 272,860 0%
Qtr -6 272,489
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Their problem lies with their customers. All of the box companies are struggling, with Dell being the only one holding its own. I think that when Intel opined that demand was falling, the smart money started to pull out of NVDA.

This is just an opinion.

Charley - --part1_90.2a367b4e.2a86eabb_boundary-- - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Sat, 10 Aug 2002 17:32:50 -0500 From: jch Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] FW: Summer Relief Rally- Is It Possible? and Energy Power in th... - --=======679A78E8======= Content-Type: multipart/alternative; x-avg-checked=avg-ok-52B13FDF; boundary="=====================_10253451==_.ALT" - --=====================_10253451==_.ALT Content-Type: text/plain; x-avg-checked=avg-ok-52B13FDF; charset=us-ascii; format=flowed Content-Transfer-Encoding: 8bit Mike: Accounting issues are also partly responsible for the nosedive--check out Google search: http://www.google.com/search?q=nvidia+corp+accounting+problems&btnG=Google+Search&hl=en&lr=&ie=ISO-8859-1 It's a long link which may wrap around to second line.. John Heiman >Mike: As regards NVDA I once owned it when it was in the $50-$60 range. No >question that this is a good company, with good earnings so far. However, >their principal product is that other chip that goes into the computer. I >am sure you know more about that than I do. >Their problem lies with their customers. All of the box companies are >struggling, with Dell being the only one holding its own. I think that >when Intel opined that demand was falling, the smart money started to pull >out of NVDA. > >This is just an opinion. > >Charley >--- >Incoming mail is certified Virus Free. >Checked by AVG anti-virus system (http://www.grisoft.com). >Version: 6.0.381 / Virus Database: 214 - Release Date: 8/2/2002 - --=====================_10253451==_.ALT Content-Type: text/html; x-avg-checked=avg-ok-52B13FDF; charset=us-ascii Content-Transfer-Encoding: 8bit Mike: Accounting issues are also partly responsible for the nosedive--check out Google search:
http://www.google.com/search?q=nvidia+corp+accounting+problems&btnG=Google+Search&hl=en&lr=&ie=ISO-8859-1
It's a long link which may wrap around to second line..
John Heiman

Mike: As regards NVDA I once owned it when it was in the $50-$60 range. No question that this is a good company, with good earnings so far. However, their principal product is that other chip that goes into the computer. I am sure you know more about that than I do.
Their problem lies with their customers. All of the box companies are struggling, with Dell being the only one holding its own. I think that when Intel opined that demand was falling, the smart money started to pull out of NVDA.

This is just an opinion.

Charley
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Hi Charley,
 
NVDA may very well be the poster child for the concept that = technicals=20 always deteriorate before the fundamentals "explain" why. Because = accounting=20 reporting lags, the deterioration in sales, earnings, etc. may not show = up for a=20 while. There's also the small matter of the insider trading scandal = which=20 resulted in legal action against the company, an SEC investigation which = required them to restate financial results from prior years, and a CFO = leaving=20 for "personal reasons." Irony of ironies, they replaced ENE in the = S&P=20 500.
 
Sometimes even great technology can't overcome a crisis of=20 confidence.
 
Katherine
----- Original Message -----
From:=20 Chazmoore@aol.com
Sent: Saturday, August 10, 2002 = 5:16=20 PM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] FW: = Summer Relief=20 Rally- Is It Possible? and Energy Power in th...

Mike: As = regards NVDA I=20 once owned it when it was in the $50-$60 range. No question that this = is a=20 good company, with good earnings so far. However, their = principal=20 product is that other chip that goes into the computer. I am = sure you=20 know more about that than I do.
Their problem lies with their = customers.=20 All of the box companies are struggling, with Dell being the only one = holding=20 its own. I think that when Intel opined that demand was falling, the = smart=20 money started to pull out of NVDA.

This is just an opinion.=20

Charley - ------=_NextPart_000_0E5D_01C24094.A32391F0-- - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ End of canslim-digest V2 #2776 ****************************** To unsubscribe to canslim-digest, send an email to "majordomo@xmission.com" with "unsubscribe canslim-digest" in the body of the message. For information on digests or retrieving files and old messages send "help" to the same address. Do not use quotes in your message.