From: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com (canslim-digest) To: canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Subject: canslim-digest V2 #2794 Reply-To: canslim Sender: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Errors-To: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Precedence: bulk Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable X-No-Archive: yes canslim-digest Tuesday, August 13 2002 Volume 02 : Number 2794 In this issue: Re: [CANSLIM] Re: WTW (was: Which One Is Better - Updated) Re: Pearl of Wisdom (was [CANSLIM] CCR - I offer this up for dissection) Re: Pearl of Wisdom (was [CANSLIM] CCR - I offer this up for dissection) ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Date: Tue, 13 Aug 2002 19:56:52 -0700 From: "NANCY POLCARO" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Re: WTW (was: Which One Is Better - Updated) - ------=_NextPart_001_0000_01C24303.913F41C0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable Tom-its the one in katherines post on weight watchers. The volumn droppe= d on what I thought was sideway movement but then the stock went up(in hi= ndsite). I would have thought it would go down.(Lower volumn). Am I miss= ing something about consolidation? =20 =20 - ----- Original Message ----- From: Tom Worley Sent: Tuesday, August 13, 2002 7:36 PM To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Re: WTW (was: Which One Is Better - Updated) =20 Nancy, haven't seen the chart you mention, but from the description the k= ey is volume dropping on the sideways move. Also, accumulation / distribu= tion is a very lagging indicator from my experience, I almost never consi= der it in buy / hold / sell arguments with myself (I usually lose!!). Bei= ng in the top 5 of its group, however, speaks to the "L" in CANSLIM. =20 - ----- Original Message ----- =20 From: NANCY POLCARO =20 To: canslim =20 Sent: Tuesday, August 13, 2002 10:06 PM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Re: WTW (was: Which One Is Better - Updated) Can you explain something for me? On the IBD wtw chart points 2 and 3. = I would have seen volumn dropping and the stock moving sideway and though= t it was about to take a dive. Instead, in this chart they said it was g= ood action. Am I wrong? I know in hindsite I can see what the chart did= , but not as it happened. Also it's group is D, its got an acc/dist. o= f D and its 5 of the top 5 stocks. Would this keep you from entering eve= n though it has a breakout on high volumn? =20 =20 - ----- Original Message ----- From: Katherine Malm Sent: Tuesday, August 13, 2002 7:33 AM To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Subject: [CANSLIM] Re: WTW (was: Which One Is Better - Updated) =20 Hi Mike, WTW didn't have the smoothest base, but it was a 12 week base nonetheless= . That's not unusual given the gyrations of the market as it's been groping for this latest bottom. So that you can see my personal take on it, I've annotated the chart at: http://WallStreet-LLC.com/canslim/WTW081302.jpg Gene noted that WTW is also featured in IBD's weblink today. They have al= so annotated a chart, so you can see their interpretation at: http://www.investors.com/weblink/ Katherine - ----- Original Message ----- From: To: Sent: Tuesday, August 13, 2002 8:50 AM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Which One Is Better - Updated Katherine, Can you expound on the statement that WTW broke out? In looking at the chart, I can sorta see a v shaped cwh, but in the handle, the volume did NOT dry up.....what would you say the pivot point was? Thanks Mike Niemotka , PE Sr. Principal Engineer Baxter Healthcare Corporation Route 120 & Wilson Road Round Lake, IL 60073 Tel (847) 270-4075 Fax (847) 270-4525 michael_niemotka@baxter.com "Katherine Malm" To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Sent by: cc: owner-canslim@lists.xm Subject: Re: [CANSL= IM] Which One Is Better - Updated ission.com 08/12/2002 08:02 PM Please respond to canslim You know, I have a simple solution for this kind of dilemma....don't use the numbers. I know it's tempting to use a number like this, as it seems to "tell you everything" about the stock. But I think once you summarize summary numbers, you're asking for trouble. I rank the composite score as "mildly useful." Here's an example. I'll select a couple of stocks that have come up for discussion here in the last few months: WTW and TOL. Scores? WTW =3D 96 TOL =3D 95 Yet, look at the charts. WTW broke out today, TOL is rolling over and playing dead. Doesn't sound like a score of 95/96 "tells" me everything I need to know about the stocks. Katherine - ----- Original Message ----- From: Gene Ricci To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Sent: Monday, August 12, 2002 7:41 PM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Which One Is Better - Updated Arghhh! Same definition Same data base Same company different numbers! - ----- Original Message ----- From: Bill Triffet To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Sent: Monday, August 12, 2002 6:58 PM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Which One Is Better - Updated Either way, it appears that the IBD data paints a prettier picture of the stocks. - -Bill - ----- Original Message ----- From: "Gene Ricci" To: Sent: Monday, August 12, 2002 4:50 PM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Which One Is Better - Updated I just had today's update figures for DGO sent to me. The 3 columns are 8/9 DGO data 8/12 IBD readings 30 minutes ago 8/12 DGO just received today's download Hi Katherine, I hadn't checked today and after reading your note, I 'thought' I was in error. However, I just went and checked several stocks: 8/9 8/12 8/12 DGO IBD DGO AAON 85 86 83 AIR 38 55 32 ABCB 89 90 90 ABM 77 85 75 ABN 58 67 58 ACE 69 86 71 ACMR 92 95 92 AES 24 30 25 AFCE 72 79 74 AFL 92 95 91 The first ten (10) I checked showed different numbers. My question still stands, which one is better? Gene - ----- Original Message ----- From: Katherine Malm To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Sent: Monday, August 12, 2002 5:47 PM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Which One Is Better Hi Gene, There seems to be conflicting information on this...See DGO's reply to my recent inquiry (7/31) about the very same thing: Hi Katherine, Thank you for your recent email to Daily Graphs Online. I apologize, but the recent additions to our services have not yet been reflected in our Image Maps resource. We plan on making the update soon. TO address your question, I would like to confirm that the Composite Rating you see on our service is the same SmartSelect=AE Composite Rating that i= s provided by the Investor's Business Daily and investors.com. Please write back if you have any questions or need assistance. Best regards, Dan Daily Graphs Online www.dailygraphs.com - ----- Original Message ----- From: Gene Ricci To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Sent: Monday, August 12, 2002 4:06 PM Subject: [CANSLIM] Which One Is Better Let's see, IBD provides an Overall Rating and now DGO provides a Composit= e Rating. Has anyone determined which one is better? Gene The new SmartSelect=AE Composite Rating in Investor's Business Daily and the Stock Checkup Overall Rating found on investors.com are based on different formulas. The SmartSelect=AE Composite Rating combines all 5 SmartSelect Ratings into one easy-to-use rating. More weight is placed on EPS and RS Rating, and the stock's percent off its 52-week high is also included in the formula. Results are then compared to all other companies, and each company is assigned a rating from 1-99 with 99 being the best. This rating is designed to help you get a quick feel for how a company's SmartSelect=AE Ratings compare to all other stocks in our database. This is intended to be an additional tool to help you find the stocks with the highest SmartSelect=AE Ratings, quickly and easily. The Overall Rating in the Stock Checkup is determined by a proprietary formula incorporating all five of the Stock Checkup ratings. These are the Technical Rating, Fundamental Rating, Attractiveness Rating, Group's Technical Rating and Group's Fundamental Rating. The Stock Checkup uses over 30 different variables including all the SmartSelect=AE Ratings to calculate the Overall Rating. When using the Stock Checkup, focus not only on the Overall Rating but all 6 of the Checkup Ratings. Also study how the stock compares to its group within the individual Checkup Ratings. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - ------=_NextPart_001_0000_01C24303.913F41C0 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
Tom-its the one in katherines post on wei= ght watchers.  The volumn dropped on what I thought was sideway= movement but then the stock went up(in hindsite). I would have thought i= t would go down.(Lower volumn).  Am I missing something about consol= idation? 
 
----- Original Mes= sage -----
From: Tom Worley
= Sent: Tuesday, August 13, 2002 7:36 PM
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Re: WTW (was: Which One Is Be= tter - Updated)
 
Nancy, haven't seen the chart you mention, but from the description the= key is volume dropping on the sideways move. Also, accumulation / distri= bution is a very lagging indicator from my experience, I almost never con= sider it in buy / hold / sell arguments with myself (I usually lose!!). B= eing in the top 5 of its group, however, speaks to the "L" in CANSLIM.
 
----- Original Message -----
To:= canslim
Sent: Tuesday, August 13, 200= 2 10:06 PM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Re: WTW (was: Which O= ne Is Better - Updated)

Can you explain something for me?  On the IBD wtw= chart points 2 and 3.  I would have seen volumn dropping and the st= ock moving sideway and thought it was about to take a dive.  Instead= , in this chart they said it was good action.  Am I wrong?  I k= now in hindsite I can see what the chart did, but not as it happened.&nbs= p;  Also it's  group is D, its got an acc/dist. of D and i= ts 5 of the top 5 stocks.  Would this keep you from entering even th= ough it has a breakout on high volumn?  
 
----- Original Message= -----
From: Katherine Malm
= Sent: Tuesday, August 13, 2002 7:33 AM
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
Subject: [CANSLIM] Re: WTW (was: Which One Is Better= - Updated)
 
Hi Mike,

WTW didn't have the sm= oothest base, but it was a 12 week base nonetheless.
That's not unusua= l given the gyrations of the market as it's been groping
for this late= st bottom. So that you can see my personal take on it, I've
annotated = the chart at:

http://WallStreet-LLC.com/canslim/WTW081302.jpg
<= BR>
Gene noted that WTW is also featured in IBD's weblink today. They = have also
annotated a chart, so you can see their interpretation at:
http://www.investors.com/weblink/

Katherine

----- Ori= ginal Message -----
From: <michael_niemotka@baxter.com>
To: &= lt;canslim@lists.xmission.com>
Sent: Tuesday, August 13, 2002 8:50 = AM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Which One Is Better - Updated


Katherine,

Can you expound on the statement that WTW broke out?&n= bsp; In looking at the
chart, I can sorta see a v shaped cwh, but in t= he handle, the volume did
NOT dry up.....what would you say the pivot = point was?

Thanks

Mike Niemotka , PE
Sr. Principal Engin= eer
Baxter Healthcare Corporation
Route 120 & Wilson Road
Ro= und Lake, IL 60073
Tel (847) 270-4075
Fax (847) 270-4525
michael= _niemotka@baxter.com



      &= nbsp;           &n= bsp; "Katherine Malm"
        =             <km= alm@earthlink.net>         To:=
canslim@lists.xmission.com
      &nb= sp;           &nbs= p; Sent by:          &n= bsp;           cc:
&= nbsp;           &n= bsp;       owner-canslim@lists.xm &nbs= p;      Subject:     Re: [CA= NSLIM]
Which One Is Better - Updated
     =             &= nbsp;  ission.com


      &nb= sp;           &nbs= p; 08/12/2002 08:02 PM
        = ;            Pleas= e respond to
         &nb= sp;          canslim

=




You know, I have a simple solution for this kind of d= ilemma....don't use
the numbers.

I know it's tempting to use a = number like this, as it seems to "tell you
everything" about the stock= . But I think once you summarize summary
numbers, you're asking for tr= ouble. I rank the composite score as "mildly
useful."

Here's an= example. I'll select a couple of stocks that have come up for
discuss= ion here in the last few months: WTW and TOL.

Scores?
WTW =3D 9= 6
TOL =3D 95

Yet, look at the charts. WTW broke out today, TOL = is rolling over and
playing dead. Doesn't sound like a score of 95/96 = "tells" me everything I
need to know about the stocks.

Katherin= e
----- Original Message -----
From: Gene Ricci
To: canslim@list= s.xmission.com
Sent: Monday, August 12, 2002 7:41 PM
Subject: Re: [= CANSLIM] Which One Is Better - Updated

Arghhh!
Same definition<= BR>Same data base
Same company
different numbers!
----- Original= Message -----
From: Bill Triffet
To: canslim@lists.xmission.comSent: Monday, August 12, 2002 6:58 PM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Which On= e Is Better - Updated

Either way, it appears that the IBD data pai= nts a prettier picture of the
stocks.

-Bill

----- Origin= al Message -----
From: "Gene Ricci" <genr@swbell.net>
To: <= ;canslim@lists.xmission.com>
Sent: Monday, August 12, 2002 4:50 PM<= BR>Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Which One Is Better - Updated


I just= had today's update figures for DGO sent to me.
The 3 columns are 8/9 = DGO data
8/12 IBD readings 30 minutes ago
8/12 DGO just received to= day's download


Hi Katherine, I hadn't checked today and after = reading your note, I
'thought' I was in error.

However, I just = went and checked several stocks:
      &= nbsp;         8/9  8/12 = ; 8/12
          &nb= sp;      DGO  IBD  DGO
AAON &n= bsp;   85     86    &nb= sp; 83
AIR          38&nb= sp;    55      32
ABCB &n= bsp;     89     90  &nb= sp;  90
ABM         77&nb= sp;   85      75
ABN  &nb= sp;      58    67  &nbs= p;    58
ACE       &= nbsp; 69    86        7= 1
ACMR     92     95 &nbs= p;     92
AES      &= nbsp;  24     30     &n= bsp; 25
AFCE      72     = 79       74
AFL    &= nbsp;    92     95   &n= bsp;   91


The first ten (10) I checked showed differ= ent numbers.

My question still stands, which one is better?
Gene



----- Original Message -----
From: Katherine Malm=
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
Sent: Monday, August 12, 2002 5:47 = PM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Which One Is Better


Hi Gene,
<= BR>There seems to be conflicting information on this...See DGO's reply to= my
recent inquiry (7/31) about the very same thing:



Hi Katherine,

Thank you for your recent email to Daily Graphs On= line.

I apologize, but the recent additions to our services have n= ot yet been
reflected in our Image Maps resource.  We plan on mak= ing the update soon.
TO address your question, I would like to confirm= that the Composite
Rating
you see on our service is the same Smart= Select=AE Composite Rating that is
provided by the Investor's Business= Daily and investors.com.

Please write back if you have any questi= ons or need assistance.

Best regards,
Dan
Daily Graphs Onlin= e
www.dailygraphs.com

----- Original Message -----
From: Gen= e Ricci
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
Sent: Monday, August 12, 200= 2 4:06 PM
Subject: [CANSLIM] Which One Is Better


Let's see,= IBD provides an Overall Rating and now DGO provides a Composite
Ratin= g. Has anyone determined which one is better?

Gene

The new = SmartSelect=AE Composite Rating in Investor's Business Daily and
the S= tock Checkup Overall Rating found on investors.com are based on
differ= ent formulas.

The SmartSelect=AE Composite Rating combines all 5 S= martSelect Ratings
into one easy-to-use rating.  More weight is p= laced on EPS and RS
Rating, and the stock's percent off its 52-week hi= gh is also included in
the formula.  Results are then compared to= all other companies, and each
company is assigned a rating from 1-99 = with 99 being the best.  This
rating is designed to help you get = a quick feel for how a company's
SmartSelect=AE Ratings compare to all= other stocks in our database.  This
is intended to be an additio= nal tool to help you find the stocks with
the highest SmartSelect=AE R= atings, quickly and easily.

The Overall Rating in the Stock Checku= p is determined by a proprietary
formula incorporating all five of the= Stock Checkup ratings. These are
the Technical Rating, Fundamental Ra= ting, Attractiveness Rating, Group's
Technical Rating and Group's Fund= amental Rating.  The Stock Checkup uses
over 30 different variabl= es including all the SmartSelect=AE Ratings to
calculate the Overall R= ating.  When using the Stock Checkup, focus not
only on the Overa= ll Rating but all 6 of the Checkup Ratings.  Also study
how the s= tock compares to its group within the individual Checkup
Ratings.
<= BR>

-
-To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com"=
-In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or
-"unsubscribe can= slim".  Do not use quotes in your email.


-
-To subscri= be/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com"
-In the email body, wri= te "subscribe canslim" or
-"unsubscribe canslim".  Do not use quo= tes in your email.





-
-To subscribe/unsubscribe,= email "majordomo@xmission.com"
-In the email body, write "subscribe c= anslim" or
-"unsubscribe canslim".  Do not use quotes in your ema= il.


-
-To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.= com"
-In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or
-"unsubscribe= canslim".  Do not use quotes in your email.
- ------=_NextPart_001_0000_01C24303.913F41C0-- - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 13 Aug 2002 20:04:21 -0700 From: "NANCY POLCARO" Subject: Re: Pearl of Wisdom (was [CANSLIM] CCR - I offer this up for dissection) - ------=_NextPart_001_0001_01C24304.9D563D00 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable Is a trailing PE simply the last 8 or 10 quarters of earnings posted and = is that what you look for in the figures? =20 =20 - ----- Original Message ----- From: Tom Worley Sent: Tuesday, August 13, 2002 7:10 PM To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Subject: Re: Pearl of Wisdom (was [CANSLIM] CCR - I offer this up for dis= section) =20 I disagree, Harvey, we are talking about a snapshot in time, doesn't matt= er for that purpose if the forecasts prove to be real or imaginary. If the investing community, right now, perceive them to be real (or even likely) and they are far superior to the rest of the industry group, or the marke= t at large, then they can create an expectation. If those expectations late= r start to be questioned, then the charts will warn you with other companie= s reducing forecasts, reporting below expectations, price lines on charts trending down, etc. While I don't give any weight to trailing PEs, I do look at the actual earnings for apparent trends (especially sequentially), and also take not= e where forecasts were then available how they compare to what was then expected. I also apply the "logical" test to any forecasts, including see= ing what they must do for the remainder of the year just to make forecasts. - ----- Original Message ----- From: "Harvey Brion" To: Sent: Tuesday, August 13, 2002 4:18 PM Subject: Re: Pearl of Wisdom (was [CANSLIM] CCR - I offer this up for dissection) A caution here, it's good to keep in mind that trailing PE ratios at leas= t are "real," while projected PE ratios are only as good as the earnings foreca= sts and can be way off, especially beyond the current quarter and FY. This risk = is reduced somewhat for older/larger companies that have a history of making= or exceeding the quarterly earnings forecasts, so called "positive surprises= ." That said, I consider both trailing and projected PEs in my stock selecti= on. > > And that's why looking at trailing PE ratios is a waste of time, they a= re > merely history, no one is likely to react to them. On the other hand, > forecasts / projected PE ratios can create a sense of expectation, henc= e > drive the price to where the stock trades at a premium based on that > expectation. > - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - ------=_NextPart_001_0001_01C24304.9D563D00 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
Is a trailing = PE simply the last 8 or 10 quarters of earnings posted and is that what y= ou look for in the figures? 
 
----- Original Message -----
From: Tom Worley
Sent: Tuesday, August 13, 2002 7:10 PM
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=
Subject: Re: Pearl of Wisdom (was= [CANSLIM] CCR - I offer this up for dissection)
 
I= disagree, Harvey, we are talking about a snapshot in time, doesn't matte= r
for that purpose if the forecasts prove to be real or imaginary. If = the
investing community, right now, perceive them to be real (or even = likely)
and they are far superior to the rest of the industry group, o= r the market
at large, then they can create an expectation. If those e= xpectations later
start to be questioned, then the charts will warn yo= u with other companies
reducing forecasts, reporting below expectation= s, price lines on charts
trending down, etc.

While I don't give= any weight to trailing PEs, I do look at the actual
earnings for appa= rent trends (especially sequentially), and also take note
where foreca= sts were then available how they compare to what was then
expected. I = also apply the "logical" test to any forecasts, including seeing
what = they must do for the remainder of the year just to make forecasts.
----- Original Message -----
From: "Harvey Brion" <hbrion@ieee.org= >
To: <canslim@lists.xmission.com>
Sent: Tuesday, August 1= 3, 2002 4:18 PM
Subject: Re: Pearl of Wisdom (was [CANSLIM] CCR - I of= fer this up for
dissection)


A caution here, it's good to ke= ep in mind that trailing PE ratios at least
are
"real," while proje= cted PE ratios are only as good as the earnings forecasts
and
can b= e way off, especially beyond the current quarter and FY.  This risk = is
reduced somewhat for older/larger companies that have a history of = making or
exceeding the quarterly earnings forecasts, so called "posit= ive surprises."

That said, I consider both trailing and projected = PEs in my stock selection.


> <snip>
> And that'= s why looking at trailing PE ratios is a waste of time, they are
> = merely history, no one is likely to react to them. On the other hand,
= > forecasts / projected PE ratios can create a sense of expectation, h= ence
> drive the price to where the stock trades at a premium based= on that
> expectation.
> <snip>


-
-To su= bscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com"
-In the email body= , write "subscribe canslim" or
-"unsubscribe canslim".  Do not us= e quotes in your email.



-
-To subscribe/unsubscribe, em= ail "majordomo@xmission.com"
-In the email body, write "subscribe cans= lim" or
-"unsubscribe canslim".  Do not use quotes in your email.=
- ------=_NextPart_001_0001_01C24304.9D563D00-- - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 13 Aug 2002 20:07:54 -0700 From: "NANCY POLCARO" Subject: Re: Pearl of Wisdom (was [CANSLIM] CCR - I offer this up for dissection) - ------=_NextPart_001_0002_01C24305.1C191AE0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable Kelly-will you please tell me what sources you used to get your figures??= =20 =20 - ----- Original Message ----- From: NANCY POLCARO Sent: Tuesday, August 13, 2002 6:18 PM To: canslim Subject: Re: Pearl of Wisdom (was [CANSLIM] CCR - I offer this up for dis= section) =20 I know - our moments of feeling good are limited when your new-huh! It l= aid out a format for me that I could understand, kind of like mikes cwhan= dle chart. No one said a lot was missing, so Im using it for a reference= right now with your permission. Glad you had a smile-Nancy =20 - ----- Original Message ----- From: Kelly Short Sent: Tuesday, August 13, 2002 7:02 AM To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Subject: RE: Pearl of Wisdom (was [CANSLIM] CCR - I offer this up for dis= section) =20 Nancy, Believe me when I tell you that your words of thanks are misdirected! The= true Pearls of Wisdom came from several group members- but none of them = by the name of Kelly. I too was the recipient, not sender, of such wisdom= . I believe Winston expelled most of these pearls and I too would like to= know where he would get such information to answer Question #4. So- not = to pass the buck- but..... Winston???? Any other Pearls hiding beneath th= e shell? Katherine? Fred? Duke? Tom? The rest of the M.O.B. Squad? And Nancy- thank you for the praise! It felt great if only for a fleeting= moment! Kelly - -----Original Message----- From: NANCY POLCARO [] Sent: Monday, August 12, 2002 6:57 PM To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Subject: Re: Pearl of Wisdom (was [CANSLIM] CCR - I offer this up for dissection) Kelly-catching up on myt mail also-I thought your presentation was really= =20 good-I wish I was that far right now. Can you tell me where you got your= =20 info? IBD? Daily Graphs? Other source? Thanks nancy >From: "Duke Miller" >Reply-To: canslim@lists.xmission.com >To: >Subject: Pearl of Wisdom (was [CANSLIM] CCR - I offer this up for =20 >dissection) >Date: Sun, 11 Aug 2002 09:33:54 -0400 > >Winston, et al: > >I'm catching up with my backlog of CANSLIM list messages, and a thought >just occurred to me after reading Winston's reply to Kelly below. (Sans >header I would have surely assumed it was Katherine's response!) > >Your point #4 is a true Pearl of Wisdom--I.e., it provokes further >thought, and is what I call an "a-ha". The reason? How bombarded we >are with information and desktops riddled with shortcuts to investment >net "tools." But when it's all said and done--technicals, >fundamentals, charts, ratings, etc.--spending time in thought about how >will the rest of the market...react to the point or issue and how >soon--is what it's all about, isn't it? You can't measure it, you can >accurately predict it, can't touch it, can't feel it. But if the >response to that question is not, albeit in you gut, positive, you >shouldn't touch it, should you? > >Thank you for that. > >Duke > > > -----Original Message----- >From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com >[mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com] On Behalf Of Winston Little >Sent: Friday, August 09, 2002 12:15 PM >To: canslim@lists.xmission.com >Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] CCR - I offer this up for dissection > > > >Kelly: >My hope is that the note was of some help, but please keep the following >in mind: >1. The goal is neither to whip or throw you back into the pond. >2. ALWAYS QUESTION anything that is said or stated.... do you agree with >the point or issue stated or asked? >3. If you agree with the point, then is what is the significance of the >point or issue? The point may be true but of little value. >4. How will the rest of the market traders/investors/or others react to >the point or issue, and how soon? >Depending on the results of the evaluate the points above (or others), >you may then want to respond and show the other person a different >perspective. > > >----- Original Message ----- >From: Kelly Short >To: canslim@lists.xmission.com >Sent: Friday, August 09, 2002 11:22 AM >Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] CCR - I offer this up for dissection > >Winston, > >You give me new understanding of DD. After reading your email I whip >myself for not investigating further before posting. Back to the newbie >pond for me. I feel like those Snakehead fish in Maryland- so close to >making it from the pond to the big river, then the big bad human ("M") >comes and throws me back in the pond. Thanks for your observations- I'll >keep hacking away. > >Kelly > -----Original Message----- >From: Winston Little [mailto:wlittle1@peoplepc.com] >Sent: Thursday, August 08, 2002 4:31 PM >To: canslim@lists.xmission.com >Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] CCR - I offer this up for dissection > > > >Kelly: >A few comments: >1. Chart pattern: >If cup-with handle (start 27 May, end 01 Aug) then the shape is V-Cup >which is not ideal. >2. Handle is 2 days long (minimum desired is five days) on 03 and 05 >Aug. >3. Heavy volume in handle (again undesirable) >4. Breakout volume on 06 Aug was 166% of average daily =3D ok. >5. Debt to equity ratio =3D 4.3 This may be a bit high, as others in the >top five of the IBD group were at 0.98, 0.18 and 0.83. The one exception >was the government sponsored agency FRE (Freddie Mac) at 31. >6. Largest concern was roll off in revenue in Q2 of 2002 to $$998 >million, was $1233 in Q1, N/A in Q4 of 200, $1272 in Q3 of 2001, $1234 >in Q2 of 2001 etc. Surprisingly the eps reported in Q2 of 2002 was >highest at $1.48 up from $1.32 in Q1 of 2002. Does this imply there may >be a re-statement in the works as day of reckoning approaches for CEO >and CFO? >CCR is believed to be a sub-prime lender. Does this mean difficulty as >the slow economy persists and consumers start to run out of cash? > >----- Original Message ----- >From: Kelly Short >To: canslim@lists.xmission.com >Sent: Thursday, August 08, 2002 4:50 PM >Subject: [CANSLIM] CCR - I offer this up for dissection > >CCR - Countrywide Cr Inds Inc > >EPS growth could be better but are we more forgiving over the past 3 >qtrs (after all- CCR is positive EPS growth for past 3 qtrs which in >itself is an accomplishment)? Appears to be coming out of CWH formation >(all though not as beautiful a formation as the Mona Lisa or anything >IBD would show us). Thoughts? > > >IBD Ratings >Smart Select 99 >EPS Rating 94 >RPS 89 >Industry Group Rank A >S+P M+ROE A >A/D A+ > > >Technical Rating 98 >Fundamental Rating 96 >Attractiveness Rating 99 >Group's Technical Rating 79 >Group's Fundamental Rating 86 > > > >Rank within Industry Group >Industry Rank (08/08/02) 32 > >Overall 100 >Technical 100 >Fundamental 91 >Attriveness 100 >Top 5 Companies w/in Group > > > >CCR > > > >DORL > > > >NCEN > > > >NDE > > > >FRE >Group % Chg to Date 2% >Group % Chg Last 12 mths 4% >Group % Chg Last 4 weeks 4% > > >Performance > >Up/Down Vol 1.3 >3 Yr. EPS Growth 16% >3 Yr. Sales Growth 25% >EPS Growth (Quarterly) % Chg >Qtr -1 $0.64 5% >Qtr -2 $0.61 8% >Qtr -3 $0.56 5% >Qtr -4 $0.53 8% >Qtr -5 $0.49 0% >Qtr -6 $0.49 > >Revenue Growth >Qtr -1 293,159 3% >Qtr -2 285,799 1% >Qtr -3 283,199 1% >Qtr -4 281,332 3% >Qtr -5 272,860 0% >Qtr -6 272,489 > > _____ > >For your protection, this e-mail message has been scanned for viruses. > >Visit us at http://www.neoris.com/ > > _____ > > > > _________________________________________________________________ Join the world's largest e-mail service with MSN Hotmail. =20 http://www.hotmail.com - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. _________________________________________________________________________= ___ For your protection, this e-mail message has been scanned for viruses. Visit us at http://www.neoris.com/ - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - ------=_NextPart_001_0002_01C24305.1C191AE0 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
Kelly-will you= please tell me what sources you used to get your figures?? 
<= DIV> 
=
----- Original Message -----
From: NANCY POLCARO
Sent: Tuesda= y, August 13, 2002 6:18 PM
To: canslim
Subject: Re: Pear= l of Wisdom (was [CANSLIM] CCR - I offer this up for dissection)
 
I know - our moments of feeling good are limited whe= n your new-huh!  It laid out a format for me that I could understand= , kind of like mikes cwhandle chart.  No one said a lot was missing,= so Im using it for a reference right now with your permission. = ;  Glad you had a smile-Nancy
 
From: Kelly Short
Sent: Tuesday, August 13, 2002 7:02 AM
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=
Subject: RE: Pearl of Wisdom (was= [CANSLIM] CCR - I offer this up for dissection)
 
N= ancy,

Believe me when I tell you that your words of thanks are mis= directed! The true Pearls of Wisdom came from several group members- but = none of them by the name of Kelly. I too was the recipient, not sender, o= f such wisdom. I believe Winston expelled most of these pearls and I too = would like to know where he would get such information to answer Question= #4. So- not to pass the buck- but..... Winston???? Any other Pearls hidi= ng beneath the shell? Katherine? Fred? Duke? Tom? The rest of the M.O.B. = Squad?

And Nancy- thank you for the praise! It felt great if only = for a fleeting moment!

Kelly

-----Original Message-----
= From: NANCY POLCARO []
Sent: Monday, August 12, 2002 6:57 PM
To: ca= nslim@lists.xmission.com
Subject: Re: Pearl of Wisdom (was [CANSLIM] C= CR - I offer this up for
dissection)


Kelly-catching up on m= yt mail also-I thought your presentation was really
good-I wish I was= that far right now.  Can you tell me where you got your
info? I= BD? Daily Graphs?  Other source? Thanks nancy


>From: "= Duke Miller" <dukemill@tampabay.rr.com>
>Reply-To: canslim@li= sts.xmission.com
>To: <canslim@lists.xmission.com>
>Sub= ject: Pearl of Wisdom (was [CANSLIM] CCR - I offer this up for
>di= ssection)
>Date: Sun, 11 Aug 2002 09:33:54 -0400
>
>Win= ston, et al:
>
>I'm catching up with my backlog of CANSLIM li= st messages, and a thought
>just occurred to me after reading Winst= on's reply to Kelly below.  (Sans
>header I would have surely = assumed it was Katherine's response!)
>
>Your point #4 is a t= rue Pearl of Wisdom--I.e., it provokes further
>thought, and is wha= t I call an "a-ha".   The reason?  How bombarded we
>= ;are with information and desktops riddled with shortcuts to investment>net "tools."   But when it's all said and done--technical= s,
>fundamentals, charts, ratings, etc.--spending time in thought a= bout how
>will the rest of the market...react to the point or issue= and how
>soon--is what it's all about, isn't it?  You can't m= easure it, you can
>accurately predict it, can't touch it, can't fe= el it.  But if the
>response to that question is not, albeit i= n you gut, positive, you
>shouldn't touch it, should you?
>>Thank you for that.
>
>Duke
>
>
>&nbs= p; -----Original Message-----
>From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.c= om
>[mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com] On Behalf Of Winston = Little
>Sent: Friday, August 09, 2002 12:15 PM
>To: canslim@l= ists.xmission.com
>Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] CCR - I offer this up for= dissection
>
>
>
>Kelly:
>My hope is that = the note was of some help, but please keep the following
>in mind:<= BR>>1. The goal is neither to whip or throw you back into the pond.>2. ALWAYS QUESTION anything that is said or stated.... do you agree = with
>the point or issue stated or asked?
>3. If you agree wi= th the point, then is what is the significance of the
>point or iss= ue? The point may be true but of little value.
>4. How will the res= t of the market traders/investors/or others  react to
>the poi= nt or issue, and how soon?
>Depending on the results of  the e= valuate the points above (or others),
>you may then want to respond= and show the other person a different
>perspective.
>
>= ;
>----- Original Message -----
>From: Kelly Short <mailto= :kelly.short@tx.us.neoris.com>
>To: canslim@lists.xmission.com>Sent: Friday, August 09, 2002 11:22 AM
>Subject: RE: [CANSLIM= ] CCR - I offer this up for dissection
>
>Winston,
>>You give me new understanding of DD. After reading your email I whip=
>myself for not investigating further before posting. Back to the = newbie
>pond for me. I feel like those Snakehead fish in Maryland- = so close to
>making it from the pond to the big river, then the big= bad human ("M")
>comes and throws me back in the pond. Thanks for = your observations- I'll
>keep hacking away.
>
>Kelly>  -----Original Message-----
>From: Winston Little [mailt= o:wlittle1@peoplepc.com]
>Sent: Thursday, August 08, 2002 4:31 PM>To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
>Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] CCR - = I offer this up for dissection
>
>
>
>Kelly:
&= gt;A few comments:
>1. Chart pattern:
>If cup-with handle (st= art 27 May, end 01 Aug) then the shape is V-Cup
>which is not ideal= .
>2. Handle is 2 days long (minimum desired is five days) on 03 an= d 05
>Aug.
>3. Heavy volume in handle (again undesirable)
= >4. Breakout volume on 06 Aug was 166% of average daily =3D ok.
>= ;5. Debt to equity ratio =3D 4.3 This may be a bit high, as others in the=
>top five of the IBD group were at 0.98, 0.18 and 0.83. The one ex= ception
>was the government sponsored agency FRE (Freddie Mac) at 3= 1.
>6. Largest concern was roll off in revenue in Q2 of 2002 to $$9= 98
>million, was $1233 in Q1, N/A in Q4 of 200, $1272 in Q3 of 2001= , $1234
>in Q2 of 2001 etc.  Surprisingly the eps reported in = Q2 of 2002 was
>highest at $1.48 up from $1.32 in Q1 of 2002. Does = this imply there may
>be a re-statement in the works as day of reck= oning approaches for CEO
>and CFO?
>CCR is believed to be a s= ub-prime lender. Does this mean difficulty as
>the slow economy per= sists and consumers start to run out of cash?
>
>----- Origin= al Message -----
>From: Kelly Short <mailto:kelly.short@tx.us.ne= oris.com>
>To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
>Sent: Thursday,= August 08, 2002 4:50 PM
>Subject: [CANSLIM] CCR - I offer this up = for dissection
>
>CCR - Countrywide Cr Inds Inc
>
&g= t;EPS growth could be better but are we more forgiving over the past 3>qtrs (after all- CCR is positive EPS growth for past 3 qtrs which in=
>itself is an accomplishment)? Appears to be coming out of CWH for= mation
>(all though not as beautiful a formation as the Mona Lisa o= r anything
>IBD would show us). Thoughts?
>
>
>IB= D Ratings
>Smart Select 99
>EPS Rating 94
>RPS 89
&g= t;Industry Group Rank A
>S+P M+ROE A
>A/D A+
>
><= BR>>Technical Rating 98
>Fundamental Rating 96
>Attractive= ness Rating 99
>Group's Technical Rating 79
>Group's Fundamen= tal Rating 86
>
>
>
>Rank within Industry Group>Industry Rank (08/08/02) 32
>
>Overall 100
>Techn= ical 100
>Fundamental 91
>Attriveness 100
>Top 5 Compan= ies w/in Group
>
>
>
>CCR
>
>
>=
>DORL
>
>
>
>NCEN
>
>
><= BR>>NDE
>
>
>
>FRE
>Group % Chg to Date = 2%
>Group % Chg Last 12 mths 4%
>Group % Chg Last 4 weeks 4%<= BR>>
>
>Performance
>
>Up/Down Vol 1.3
>= 3 Yr. EPS Growth 16%
>3 Yr. Sales Growth 25%
>EPS Growth (Qua= rterly) % Chg
>Qtr -1 $0.64 5%
>Qtr -2 $0.61 8%
>Qtr -3= $0.56 5%
>Qtr -4 $0.53 8%
>Qtr -5 $0.49 0%
>Qtr -6 $0.= 49
>
>Revenue Growth
>Qtr -1 293,159 3%
>Qtr -2 2= 85,799 1%
>Qtr -3 283,199 1%
>Qtr -4 281,332 3%
>Qtr -5= 272,860 0%
>Qtr -6 272,489
>
>   _____
&g= t;
>For your protection, this e-mail message has been scanned for v= iruses.
>
>Visit us at http://www.neoris.com/
>
>=    _____
>
>
>
>




___= ______________________________________________________________
Join th= e world's largest e-mail service with MSN Hotmail.
http://www.hotmail= .com


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For your= protection, this e-mail message has been scanned for viruses.
Visit u= s at http://www.neoris.com/

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