From: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com (canslim-digest) To: canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Subject: canslim-digest V2 #284 Reply-To: canslim Sender: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Errors-To: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Precedence: bulk X-No-Archive: yes canslim-digest Monday, June 15 1998 Volume 02 : Number 284 In this issue: [CANSLIM] My mistake... Re: [CANSLIM] Re: Reading the charts by market.... Re: [CANSLIM] Globex closes off -12.20 points. Re: [CANSLIM] The NAZ - Weekly/Daily [CANSLIM] Technical Analysis RE: [CANSLIM] ABAG: TA & CS [Connie] RE: [CANSLIM] Globex closes off -12.20 points. Re: [CANSLIM] Technical Analysis Re: [CANSLIM] The NAZ - Weekly/Daily Re: [CANSLIM] The NAZ - Weekly/Daily--Dave RE: [CANSLIM] Counting from Low Re: [CANSLIM] The NAZ - Weekly/Daily Re: [CANSLIM] The NAZ - Weekly/Daily RE: [CANSLIM] Counting from Low--Jeffry [CANSLIM] Abby Joseph Cohen recommendations [Connie] Re: [CANSLIM] RUT support?--Dave Re: [CANSLIM] ABAG: TA & CS [Connie] Re: [CANSLIM] Mkt "noise" - JW don't read (was William J. O'Neil talks stocks) [CANSLIM] Counting from the low [CANSLIM] cpwr [CANSLIM] Re: Scan Re: [CANSLIM] Re: Scan--Thomas ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Date: Mon, 15 Jun 1998 07:28:50 -0600 From: jeff@scrooge.csd.sdl.usu.edu (Jeff Salisbury) Subject: [CANSLIM] My mistake... Everyone, I need to eat my words... I announced yesterday that I terminated the subscription of a spammer. I did this without reading the accused spammer's follow-up messages. After reading his messages and corresponding with him privately, I'm convinced it was an innocent mistake. Therefore, I've invited Rick to rejoin us. Regards, Jeff - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 15 Jun 1998 09:34:34 -0400 From: Connie Mack Rea Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Re: Reading the charts by market.... You're welcome, Mary. CM mckeener@ix.netcom.com wrote: > Hello Connie, > > Many, many thanks for the explanation. Keep them coming when you > have time, even though I don't always understand everything, each > time I get a little bit more. > > Regards, > Mary Keener > > - - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 15 Jun 1998 09:41:35 -0400 From: Robert Bomba <73223.2767@compuserve.com> Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Globex closes off -12.20 points. >> Globex futures flirted with their maximum point loss last night of -15.00 points as Asia was in turmoil once again. << Not anymore. It's -25 on the globex. Bob - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 15 Jun 1998 09:08:39 -0500 From: Dave Cameron Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] The NAZ - Weekly/Daily dbphoenix wrote: > > < trendlines etc. is only partially relevant to me. I, and anyone who > follows CANSLIM to the letter, never would own a Dow stock. Any DJIA > stock, nearly by definition, can not be CANSLIM.>> > > I'm curious as to your reasoning behind this, Dave. O'N does not > limit himself to small-cap stocks and there are plenty of mid and > large-cap examples in the book. Why do you say that "anyone who > follows CS to the letter never would own a Dow stock"? O'Neill generally sets a limit on number of shares outstanding and institutional sponsorship. Most, if not all, DJIA stocks exceed his guidance on shares outstanding and institutional sponsorship. He has commented several times that you can own large cap stocks such as those on the DJIA, but he personally thinks you need to be a lot more patient. He then goes on to comment he doesn't have that patience. This is on a tape which one gets for free when subscribing to IBD. Dave Cameron > > --Db > > _________________________________________________________ > DO YOU YAHOO!? > Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com > > - - - ------------------------------ Date: Sun, 14 Jun 1998 11:44:47 +0300 From: "Momentum Wavers, Ltd." Subject: [CANSLIM] Technical Analysis Hi all, The following site is deducated to technical analysis : http://members.tripod.com/~MWavers Do you know of any similar sites or sites dealing with technical analysis in general ? Thanks ! - - ------------------------------ Date: Sun, 14 Jun 1998 10:38:09 -0400 From: "Nelson E. Timken, Esq." Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] ABAG: TA & CS [Connie] Forgive my ignorance Connie, but does this mean, in simple layperson's terms, that we may have a short rally after all in the near future? Nelson E. Timken Contact me at: http://onelist.com/subscribe.cgi/investing-list - -----Original Message----- From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of Connie Mack Rea Sent: Sunday, June 14, 1998 9:54 AM To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] ABAG: TA & CS [Connie] Morning Chris-- Let's see if we can't raise your spirits. You still have those five weeks of MF positive divergence from late April through June. That's a plus. The same with OBV. That's a plus. The SloSto has already turned sell and the EMA is at a first level sell, also. Another down day of a 1/2 point and the MACD will turn sell. Two minuses. The Volume+ looks normal: minus volume but diminished. A plus. If you choose to stay in, there are these things to consider for the short term. [1] There is a trendline of support across those tops at about 17. The breakout above this line is presumably what prompted you to buy. Nothing wrong with your decision. The breakout looked sound. In part, what happened to cut your right decision short was that the next resistance was so close at about 19 and the market turned sour. Still, you played by the chart. [2] What you may expect, by the chart, is that price will hold on support. If price holds here and you get a bit of consolidation for perhaps a week, you'll have some other support coming into influence. More about this in a minute. [3] If support is breached, your next trendline of support will be a line across the bottoms in April and May at about 15 1/2. It would be serious if this line were breached. The breaking of two supports should always take your breath away. With this line drawn in, you've parallel lines of support. If price breaks the first support and holds on the second, you may be entering a trading range between these lines. If this does happen, you'll find that others who held on to the second support may be itchy to get out when price rebounds to the upper line, which becomes now a resistance line. If you've had enough, you will need to sell into this strength on the assumption that you've entered a trading range and that the next move will be down to the lower support. More times than not, price will not break through on the first test of the upper resistance because there are too many people who may have used the same criteria to get in at your price. Some shaking out will occur at the upper resistance line. [4] Using a longer term criterion that favors you is a trendline drawn from the low in March across the last low in May. Extend that line through the parallel lines. This line, crossing through the parallel lines, becomes a secondary support for price. It is, however, the bottom parallel line that is the primary support. A week or so from now, price will meet the conjunction of the long term trendline and the top parallel line. If, at this conduction, you cannot determine which way the stock will move [check all your indicators, especially MACD, SloSto, and EMAs], you should consider that you've made a mistake and look elsewhere. Your position is not at all hopeless. Support is close by, both short and long term. If you're in for a couple hundred shares or so, consider clearing out half and sell into the next strength. Don't disparage yourself when you decide to get out of a stock or when you get out and the stock goes up. When you get out and a stock goes up, you didn't lose money, you saved capital. And the name of the game is capital. If you're not dealing with a discount broker, consider doing so. If you must consider the cost of commission as even the slightest reason to stay in a stock, you are using the weakest of reasons. One reason for dealing with a discount broker is that you can sell half your position and suffer for just a few dollars. Commission cost should never enter into the reason for entering or exiting. This is a site that has a list of 50 or so discount brokers: http://smallcapinvestor.com/discount.asp Keep your spirits up. Connie Mack []long term trendline CA011667@aol.com wrote: > Hi Connie, > > I was the one who mentioned ABAG (my name is Chris). Any tech info you have on > this one would be appreciated.Made initial purchase (which I thought was as > perfect an entry as you could hope for) at 17 7/16.Stock has run into longer > term resistance at 19 and closed the week at its low but still just above > breakout level. I generally do not like finishing on the low for the week > after a breakout but the selling was on much lower voulme than the massive > buying earlier in the week, not to mention the rotten market conditions this > week. Any thoughts on this one. Thanks in advance. Chris. > > - - - - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 15 Jun 1998 07:30:33 -0700 From: "Ken Davidson" Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] Globex closes off -12.20 points. Thanks for reminding me I forgot about the change to -25. Dow is now off -130, S & P -13.00 Nasdaq -17.00. Ken - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 15 Jun 1998 07:45:10 -0700 (PDT) From: dbphoenix Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Technical Analysis <> There are many, and the quality is highly variable. Instead of following a site that may be run by who-knows-who, you're really better off both in the short- and long-run by becoming your own guru. So much of what you read online is just wishful thinking. You needn't rediscover the wheel, but you do need to develop a critical faculty. By far the best book on technical analysis (or what he calls "visual" analysis) for beginners is The Visual Investor by John Murphy. It's very reasonably priced and is also discounted at Amazon and Barnes. It also comes with free charting software, a stripped-down version of WallStreet Analyst. You can't do better than free. When you ask, you'll get all sorts of recommendations for books that, while excellent, are way beyond the beginner level. And until you are at least vaguely familiar with the intent of charting, you'd probably do well to avoid anything with "trade" or "trader" in the title. All that can come later. Another excellent volume is Technical Analysis: A Personal Seminar by the New York Institute of Finance, also inexpensive and also available at Amazon and Barnes (these are both available at the local bookstore as well). It's a combination of instructional manual and workbook and most beginners find it extremely helpful. After that, there's plenty to choose from. I suggest, however, that you focus on learning market psychology and sociology before trying to develop or evaluate a "system", if for no other reason than if you jump to the "system" part, you'll have no way of knowing what was wrong with it when it fails. - --Db _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 15 Jun 1998 07:50:24 -0800 From: "Patrick Wahl" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] The NAZ - Weekly/Daily > Date: Mon, 15 Jun 1998 07:39:23 -0500 > From: Dave Cameron > stock, nearly by definition, can not be CANSLIM. As such, the Dow can > go to zero for all I care. It is merely 30 stocks. I find that the I think a market cap of zero for Merck, Exxon, GM, GE, and a few others might hint at broader economic weakness and possibly translate into weakness for the NASDAQ. Or maybe not. - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 15 Jun 1998 07:56:14 -0700 (PDT) From: dbphoenix Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] The NAZ - Weekly/Daily--Dave <> True, though his views have changed dramatically since he wrote the book, as evidenced by some of the changes he makes on the tape you refer to (assuming it's the most recent). Keep in mind, though, that rather than set a limit, he guides you toward smaller stocks which, as he says, do best at the beginning of bull markets. Unfortunately, this bull market began eight years ago. Also, he uses plenty of mid and large-cap examples in the book, including samples of charts. So he's not closed-off to the idea. There are distinct advantages to focusing on one segment of the market. But if one focuses on small caps alone, he stands a good chance of being out of the market for extended periods of time. Keep in mind also that the Nasdaq is essentially a large-cap index. Finding mid and large-caps with the requisite earnings growth is more difficult, but they do exist. - --Db _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 15 Jun 98 11:19:400 -0500 From: Jeffry White Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] Counting from Low ===== Original Message from canslim@lists.xmission.com at 6/15/98 9:03 am ><current >low point in the downturn.>> > >How did you arrive at this? Not trying to start anything (Thank God >you're not as touchy as some), just curious. > >--Db > > > > > >_________________________________________________________ >DO YOU YAHOO!? >Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com > > >- > > > >Message Forwarded to: mail@uucp {postwhit@sover.net} ===== Comments by JWHITE@TJOSLIN (Jeffry White) at 6/15/98 11:18 am From work, I can't look up the specific page in Chapter 7 or HTMMIS, but you count for follow through from the low in a downturn. How did you arrive at something different? Jeffry - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 15 Jun 1998 11:56:38 -0400 From: "Frank V. Wolynski" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] The NAZ - Weekly/Daily It all depends on the instruments you think you need to get a feel for market direction. Some are content with an altimeter only, judging their speed by the sound of the wind. Some want an artificial horizon and atitude display. It is all towards figuring M, which to me means use what works for you! Disgard what doesn't. Since I don't hear so well anymore, I'll take the plane with the altimeter, air speed indicator, artificial horizon, and ILS receiver. I hate bumpy landings! Frank Wolynski At 09:08 AM 6/15/98 -0500, Dave Cameron wrote: >dbphoenix wrote: >> >> <> trendlines etc. is only partially relevant to me. I, and anyone who >> follows CANSLIM to the letter, never would own a Dow stock. Any DJIA >> stock, nearly by definition, can not be CANSLIM.>> >> >> I'm curious as to your reasoning behind this, Dave. O'N does not >> limit himself to small-cap stocks and there are plenty of mid and >> large-cap examples in the book. Why do you say that "anyone who >> follows CS to the letter never would own a Dow stock"? > >O'Neill generally sets a limit on number of shares outstanding >and institutional sponsorship. Most, if not all, DJIA stocks >exceed his guidance on shares outstanding and institutional >sponsorship. He has commented several times >that you can own large cap stocks such as those on the DJIA, but >he personally thinks you need to be a lot more patient. He >then goes on to comment he doesn't have that patience. This >is on a tape which one gets for free when subscribing to IBD. > >Dave Cameron > >> >> --Db >> >> _________________________________________________________ >> DO YOU YAHOO!? >> Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com >> >> - > >- > > - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 15 Jun 1998 12:20:10 -0400 From: Connie Mack Rea Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] The NAZ - Weekly/Daily Nice metaphor, Frank. This is not the market for VFR cross countries. Connie Mack Frank V. Wolynski wrote: > It all depends on the instruments you think you need to get a feel for > market direction. > > Some are content with an altimeter only, judging their speed by the sound > of the wind. > Some want an artificial horizon and atitude display. > > It is all towards figuring M, which to me means use what works for you! > Disgard what doesn't. > > Since I don't hear so well anymore, I'll take the plane with the altimeter, > air speed indicator, artificial horizon, and ILS receiver. > > I hate bumpy landings! > > Frank Wolynski > > At 09:08 AM 6/15/98 -0500, Dave Cameron wrote: > >dbphoenix wrote: > >> > >> < >> trendlines etc. is only partially relevant to me. I, and anyone who > >> follows CANSLIM to the letter, never would own a Dow stock. Any DJIA > >> stock, nearly by definition, can not be CANSLIM.>> > >> > >> I'm curious as to your reasoning behind this, Dave. O'N does not > >> limit himself to small-cap stocks and there are plenty of mid and > >> large-cap examples in the book. Why do you say that "anyone who > >> follows CS to the letter never would own a Dow stock"? > > > >O'Neill generally sets a limit on number of shares outstanding > >and institutional sponsorship. Most, if not all, DJIA stocks > >exceed his guidance on shares outstanding and institutional > >sponsorship. He has commented several times > >that you can own large cap stocks such as those on the DJIA, but > >he personally thinks you need to be a lot more patient. He > >then goes on to comment he doesn't have that patience. This > >is on a tape which one gets for free when subscribing to IBD. > > > >Dave Cameron > > > >> > >> --Db > >> > >> _________________________________________________________ > >> DO YOU YAHOO!? > >> Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com > >> > >> - > > > >- > > > > > > - - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 15 Jun 1998 08:48:49 -0700 (PDT) From: dbphoenix Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] Counting from Low--Jeffry <> I think I know what you're referring to: "The bottom day in the Dow Jones or the first strong day up after a major decline is usually the first indication of a possible bottom. A good follow-through, with the Dow Jones up . . . and accompanied by a increase in daily volume from the day before, will usually be on the fourth, fifth, sixth, or seventh day of the attempted rally. This is your second confirmation and main buy signal". Before that, "wait for the first time an attempted short-term rally follows through on anywhere from its third to tenth day of recovery". I've interpreted the latter to mean that you go from the attempted rally, since you can't know that the bottom was a bottom until there's a rally from it. If there weren't, the next day would be the bottom, and so on. Of course, one has to define "rally". Since he makes so much of price increase and increased volume elsewhere, that's generally what I've gone by, though I've fudged by not insisting on the price exceeding the previous day's close as long as the market dropped significantly and closed at or near the high for the day, particularly if that low was a bounce off support of one sort or another. O'N, however, apparently gives you a choice in the previous paragraph, though it would not be possible--using his definitions--to be off by more than a day at the start of the count. And since he provides so much latitude in the number of days to wait for confirmation, it probably doesn't matter much. He gives you eight days for the first signal and four for the second. That's a lot of leeway. - --Db _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 15 Jun 1998 12:29:42 -0400 From: Connie Mack Rea Subject: [CANSLIM] Abby Joseph Cohen recommendations [Connie] Members-- Over the weekend, I heard Abby Joseph Cohen speak. She is a superb market analyst. Few would I follow into the abyss. Her group choices were airlines, retailers, and technology. She was no more specific than these general categories. She has made money for me when others were wallowing in "ifs" and "maybes." Connie Mack - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 15 Jun 1998 09:33:05 -0700 (PDT) From: dbphoenix Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] RUT support?--Dave I made up a RUT chart for you. The levels you mentioned are there, but I've also added a couple of trendlines and the Fib/Gann retracement levels. I didn't put in any numbers since it's pretty obvious what they'd be. This chart is certainly much more warming than the others. Hope you find this useful. ftp://ftp.xmission.com/pub/users/m/mcjathan/canslim/RUT-WKLY.gif - --Db _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 15 Jun 1998 11:43:55 -0400 From: Connie Mack Rea Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] ABAG: TA & CS [Connie] Nelson-- On the contrary, forgive my lack of clarity. The burden is always on the writer to speak clearly. If I had to guess, I'd say that the resistance at 17 will hold; if so, and on plenty of up volume, you can expect a bounce. If this support is breached, then the next bounce will occur only after the stock has fallen to about 15 1/2. But, then, that bounce has as its upper resistance the old support line at 17. The stock has not yet shown any signs of more than a normal correction. When the price reaches 17, check the MACD, SloSto, and the 3/7/10 EMA. If price reaches this level and these three indicators are still sell, with no hint of turning, then you've probably settled into a trading range. Another member asking about ABAG thought that, if the market firmed up and began to rise, the theory of a "rising tide lifts all boats" would apply There is more to this theory than less. But. What if you're not in a boat? Of if the water is up to the gunwale already and splashing into your lap? Thanks for the mail. Connie Mack Nelson E. Timken, Esq. wrote: > Forgive my ignorance Connie, but does this mean, in simple layperson's > terms, that we may have a short rally after all in the near future? > > Nelson E. Timken > Contact me at: > http://onelist.com/subscribe.cgi/investing-list > > -----Original Message----- > From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com > [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of Connie Mack Rea > Sent: Sunday, June 14, 1998 9:54 AM > To: canslim@lists.xmission.com > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] ABAG: TA & CS [Connie] > > Morning Chris-- > > Let's see if we can't raise your spirits. > > You still have those five weeks of MF positive divergence from late April > through > June. That's a plus. > > The same with OBV. That's a plus. > > The SloSto has already turned sell and the EMA is at a first level sell, > also. > Another down day of a 1/2 point and the MACD will turn sell. Two minuses. > > The Volume+ looks normal: minus volume but diminished. A plus. > > If you choose to stay in, there are these things to consider for the short > term. > [1] There is a trendline of support across those tops at about 17. The > breakout > above this line is presumably what prompted you to buy. Nothing wrong with > your > decision. The breakout looked sound. In part, what happened to cut your > right > decision short was that the next resistance was so close at about 19 and the > market turned sour. Still, you played by the chart. > > [2] What you may expect, by the chart, is that price will hold on support. > If > price holds here and you get a bit of consolidation for perhaps a week, > you'll > have some other support coming into influence. More about this in a minute. > > [3] If support is breached, your next trendline of support will be a line > across > the bottoms in April and May at about 15 1/2. It would be serious if this > line > were breached. The breaking of two supports should always take your breath > away. > With this line drawn in, you've parallel lines of support. If price breaks > the > first support and holds on the second, you may be entering a trading range > between > these lines. > > If this does happen, you'll find that others who held on to the second > support may > be itchy to get out when price rebounds to the upper line, which becomes now > a > resistance line. If you've had enough, you will need to sell into this > strength > on the assumption that you've entered a trading range and that the next move > will > be down to the lower support. More times than not, price will not break > through > on the first test of the upper resistance because there are too many people > who > may have used the same criteria to get in at your price. Some shaking out > will > occur at the upper resistance line. > > [4] Using a longer term criterion that favors you is a trendline drawn from > the > low in March across the last low in May. Extend that line through the > parallel > lines. This line, crossing through the parallel lines, becomes a secondary > support for price. It is, however, the bottom parallel line that is the > primary > support. > > A week or so from now, price will meet the conjunction of the long term > trendline > and the top parallel line. If, at this conduction, you cannot determine > which way > the stock will move [check all your indicators, especially MACD, SloSto, and > EMAs], you should consider that you've made a mistake and look elsewhere. > > Your position is not at all hopeless. Support is close by, both short and > long > term. If you're in for a couple hundred shares or so, consider clearing out > half > and sell into the next strength. > > Don't disparage yourself when you decide to get out of a stock or when you > get out > and the stock goes up. When you get out and a stock goes up, you didn't > lose > money, you saved capital. And the name of the game is capital. > > If you're not dealing with a discount broker, consider doing so. If you > must > consider the cost of commission as even the slightest reason to stay in a > stock, > you are using the weakest of reasons. One reason for dealing with a > discount > broker is that you can sell half your position and suffer for just a few > dollars. > > Commission cost should never enter into the reason for entering or exiting. > > This is a site that has a list of 50 or so discount brokers: > > http://smallcapinvestor.com/discount.asp > > Keep your spirits up. > > Connie Mack > > []long term trendline > > CA011667@aol.com wrote: > > > Hi Connie, > > > > I was the one who mentioned ABAG (my name is Chris). Any tech info you > have on > > this one would be appreciated.Made initial purchase (which I thought was > as > > perfect an entry as you could hope for) at 17 7/16.Stock has run into > longer > > term resistance at 19 and closed the week at its low but still just above > > breakout level. I generally do not like finishing on the low for the week > > after a breakout but the selling was on much lower voulme than the massive > > buying earlier in the week, not to mention the rotten market conditions > this > > week. Any thoughts on this one. Thanks in advance. Chris. > > > > - > > - > > - - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 15 Jun 1998 11:49:46 -0400 From: "Frank V. Wolynski" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Mkt "noise" - JW don't read (was William J. O'Neil talks stocks) Thanks Tom. My question came out wrong actually. You are absolutely correct concerning the dollar. What I was actually after was support of the Yen. I know it is early to consider how and where any strength at all would come from for Asian currencies, but no trend lasts forever. Otherwise we could all just buy dollars with our Yen and retire millionaires in a month or so! Obviously the expensive dollar hurts US exports and I do believe that a US government intervention in support of the Yen could be an additional piece (where are the others coming from? Don't know!) that could finally stabilize the currencies and at that juncture cause a rally in foreign currencies. Thus proping up the foreign economies. Would it hold? Not by itself, but with the right additional stimulus, it could be the beginning. I'm not a futures trader, but at that very juncture, it would make more sense for foreign money to be vacating the dollar and buying Yen. Also, it seems anything valued in dollars would be at risk also. Including their holdings in US equities. The picture is less than pretty from SE Asia, in fact I think the very frame is a fraud, and the painting turned out to be a water color, not a Van Gogh! If it doesn't spiral into a depression / deflation / crash, we'll all be lucky! Just pondering out loud. This is more M than canslim, so I'll understand if anyone chooses not to answer this one. Yes, you were right on with your earlier call, but I rode that little bounce during the first of the year for a 14% gain, while the domestic counterpart my annuity has available only turned 8.5%. Frank Wolynski At 08:13 AM 6/15/98 -0400, Tom Worley wrote: >Actually, the US isn't supporting the US dollar, the rest of the world >is. Because of economic changes (open markets and such, as well as >fiscal policy) the US dollar, and dollar denominated products like the >treasuries, are viewed as "safe haven" investments for those that want >to put their money into something. The strong dollar/weak yen is only >one of the reasons that Japan will likely have to devalue its >currency. Without fundamental, underlying economic change, its >current recession is likely to persist for years. The weak yen >actually encourages and aids its exports, which in turn aids (or >should) its domestic economy. But the weak yen kills them in the >import arena such as on oil (where they import nearly 100% of their >requirements). So long as their banks continue to carry an officially >estimated $500 billion in bad (non performing) loans (and the total is >probably far worse), and the govt continues to maintain protectionist >trade barriers (which increases the costs to consumers and defeats >competition), they will continue to struggle to survive economically. >And Japan, and the yen, carries great influence throughout the Asian >mkt so as Japan goes, so goes the entire region to at least some >degree. > >I saw South Korea emerging as the new leadership, with China as a >second possibility. This still remains true, however both are also >being battered by the current crises. > >The Nikkei is on the verge of setting another 12 month low. I >generally don't look back any further than that, thus to me, without >fundamental reasons for the Japan mkt to stablize or begin to recover, >the downside is potentially unlimited. Note that a few weeks ago I >warned this group about "bottom fishing" the Asian mkt. Boy, was I on >target on that. Likewise with the Latin American mkt, where the >falling price of oil is having a serious impact. > >Tom W > >-----Original Message----- >From: Frank V. Wolynski >To: canslim@lists.xmission.com ; >canslim@lists.xmission.com >Date: Monday, June 15, 1998 7:52 AM >Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Mkt "noise" - JW don't read (was William J. >O'Neil talks stocks) > > >>Great noise Tom! Covered my ears as I read it! :-) >> >>Any idea what effect the US support of the dollar may have on the >markets? >>There is a bit of talk about it and was curious. >>Would that preclude the necessity for foreign markets to revalue? >> >>To anyone else that may have a clue, since 15000 has been taken out >on the >>Nikkei, is there a level of support back there somewhere when 'bell >>bottoms' were popular and Gilligans Island was the #1 sitcom? I'm not >sure >>but 15000 seemed like solid support from the 80's. If it had been >such, >>does this imply crash mode for Japan? >> >>Thanks, >> >>Frank Wolynski >> >>At 06:52 6/15/98 -0400, Tom Worley wrote: >>>Tom's here, but I grew weary of being criticized for all my market >>>"noise" posts, so not doing that any more esp since the info is >>>readily available on the net to those that want it. If I ever find >the >>>time to put up a home page, I'll probably include a daily "noise >>>maker" comment. >>> >>>Asia continued its serious melt down, almost every market down over >>>2%, several down over 5%. Japan broke 15,000, so would guess when >they >>>"kicked the recession tires", they lost some more air. In Europe, >the >>>selloff continues unabated. In fact, it looks worse than Friday, >with >>>almost every mkt down over 2%. >>> >>>It has been interesting watching the linkage between weak mkts and >>>strong ones. Two I have been watching are Hong Kong - UK and >Russia - >>>Germany. Glad the US mkt is not so closely aligned with a single >>>foreign mkt. Diversification is good. >>> >>>US Dollar stronger, broke 146 on the USD/yen and 1.81 on USD/mark. I >>>see very little opportunity for Japan or China to avoid devaluing >>>their currency, which will set off a round of currency devaluation >>>throughout Asia. And without fundamental changes in their economic >>>decision making and in banking, I also see little hope of Japan >>>resuming regional leadership, at least not for several years. >>> >>>That's all my noise. >>> >>>Tom W >>> >>>-----Original Message----- >>>From: Ssingh@aol.com >>>To: canslim@lists.xmission.com >>>Date: Sunday, June 14, 1998 11:35 PM >>>Subject: [CANSLIM] William J. O'Neil talks stocks >>> >>> >>>I note a lot of Asian markets are down as of >>>>now. Where is Tom who always updates us with this kind of >>>information? >>>> >>>>Surindra >>>> >>>>- >>>> >>> >>> >>>- >>> >>> >> >>- >> > > >- > > - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 15 Jun 1998 13:29:37 -0400 From: Jeffry White Subject: [CANSLIM] Counting from the low > Jeffry>> > > I think I know what you're referring to: "The bottom day in the Dow > Jones or the first strong day up after a major decline is usually the > first indication of a possible bottom. A good follow-through, with > the Dow Jones up . . . and accompanied by a increase in daily volume > from the day before, will usually be on the fourth, fifth, sixth, or > seventh day of the attempted rally. This is your second confirmation > and main buy signal". > > Before that, "wait for the first time an attempted short-term rally > follows through on anywhere from its third to tenth day of recovery". > > I've interpreted the latter to mean that you go from the attempted > rally, since you can't know that the bottom was a bottom until there's > a rally from it. If there weren't, the next day would be the bottom, > and so on. Of course, one has to define "rally". Since he makes so > much of price increase and increased volume elsewhere, that's > generally what I've gone by, though I've fudged by not insisting on > the price exceeding the previous day's close as long as the market > dropped significantly and closed at or near the high for the day, > particularly if that low was a bounce off support of one sort or > another. > > O'N, however, apparently gives you a choice in the previous paragraph, > though it would not be possible--using his definitions--to be off by > more than a day at the start of the count. And since he provides so > much latitude in the number of days to wait for confirmation, it > probably doesn't matter much. He gives you eight days for the first > signal and four for the second. That's a lot of leeway. > > --Db > > > A full response will have to wait until I get home, Db. In the meantime, ponder this: if I happen to disagree with your interpretation of the "latter" "rally" language, are you going to stomp your feet, pout and "unsubscribe"? ;) Jeffry - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 15 Jun 1998 10:41:18 -0800 From: "Patrick Wahl" Subject: [CANSLIM] cpwr I've been following Compuware (CPWR) for over a year, its been doing very well in that time. Don't have the numbers on it, but EPS, RS, GRS, growth rate, all very good. CPWR is down from its highs, I think it has finally found an equilibrium level at the 43-45 range. If you try to look at the big picture, I think it might be forming the left side and bottom part of a cup. Whenever the market turns favorable again, and if CPWR gets back near its old highs, it is probably a good buy on any breakout. Just one for people's watch lists. - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 15 Jun 1998 14:28:21 -0500 From: "Thomas A. Moulton" Subject: [CANSLIM] Re: Scan Jose O. Perez wrote: > Here is my O'neil scan for June 14 ... (Some recurring names some new) > > BKE > CACOA > CGF > LADF > LAND > NRVH > SKYW > SPF > TWMC > > two others with some extra Oneil add on's (High ROE,ROA): > > BOSA > SHOO Jose' I would like to know how you selected these stocks. I checked the NASDAQ listed stocks and found: Sym IBD Earnings BOSA 91 79 B Mixed past few years and few Q's (+ and - growth) CACOA 74 98 A Steady declining EPS, with change this year LADF 73 95 A Many loosing years/quarters NRVH 98 94 A Good growth over 5 years SKYW 84 97 A Loosing years (95/96) recent turn around (why?) SHOO 93 92 A Mixed good and bad EPS TWMC 70 99 A Many loosing quarters turnaround in early 97 (why) So... I look at that list and say NRVH loos good, SKYW and TWMC need a closer look to see what has changed for them recently to have the improvement (and see if it has hopes of continuing) >From my scans of the paper (IBD) there are many other good companies that could be looked at... Once you get past the Rel Str>80, EPS>80 and Acc A/B and 5 year growth 20% or better each year, then it is much more a personal pick (i think) But then again I am just a novice, been learning about the market for almost 2 years, read a few books (o'neil's a few times)... no I don't have much money in the market, i want to learn first and have been paper trading with CS for 4+ months now and doing alright for a novice... What I have noticed is that with good filters I can get double digit gains in a few weeks and the loosers are usually single digit loosers... sounds like a winning combination to me! - -- Thomas A. Moulton, W2VY Xanthus Inc. w2vy@xanthus.net - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 15 Jun 1998 11:49:08 -0700 (PDT) From: dbphoenix Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Re: Scan--Thomas <> If you mean that you have the discipline to cut your losses quickly, you're a lot farther along than most. Congratulations, Thomas. Looks like you have the important stuff nailed. - --Db _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - - ------------------------------ End of canslim-digest V2 #284 ***************************** To unsubscribe to canslim-digest, send an email to "majordomo@xmission.com" with "unsubscribe canslim-digest" in the body of the message. For information on digests or retrieving files and old messages send "help" to the same address. Do not use quotes in your message.