From: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com (canslim-digest) To: canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Subject: canslim-digest V2 #2982 Reply-To: canslim Sender: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Errors-To: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Precedence: bulk Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable X-No-Archive: yes canslim-digest Friday, October 11 2002 Volume 02 : Number 2982 In this issue: RE: [CANSLIM] IBD Weblink Re: [CANSLIM] IBD Weblink RE: [CANSLIM] IBD Weblink RE: [CANSLIM] IBD Weblink Re: [CANSLIM] IBD Weblink Re: [CANSLIM] What's still strong? RE: [CANSLIM] IBD Weblink ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Date: Fri, 11 Oct 2002 09:55:31 -1000 From: "Mike Gibbons" Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] IBD Weblink In their analysis of the APPX chart, they seem to be introducing a new requirement for a healthy handle! It used to be that the pivot should be within 5-15% of the left side of the cup, but here they say 5-15% of the 52 week high. This seems to imply a new constraint that the left side of the cup should also be a 52 week high. In fact, APPX fell 40% from its january high to a low in february before rising 40% to set the left side of the cup on 3/13. In my view this was a valid cup left side as it had risen more than 30% from its prior low. Aloha, Mike Gibbons Proactive Technologies, LLC http://www.proactech.com - -----Original Message----- From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of Norman Sent: Friday, October 11, 2002 7:38 AM To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] IBD Weblink So much for their analysis. APPX is still climbing on volume, 16% off it's 52wk high. Only time will tell. Norm - ----- Original Message ----- From: "Chris Dempsey" To: Sent: Friday, October 11, 2002 7:44 AM Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] IBD Weblink > Norm, > > At least for once they are calling one early, usually they call them after > the fact. I don't have a good example handy but I believe IBD has mentioned > this type of pattern before as being good. It seems to me that this has a > better chance of working since it is a recent IPO. > > I'm sure the check is in the mail. But don't get to excited as they will > spend more on postage then the value of the check. > > Chris > > -----Original Message----- > From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com > [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of Norman > Sent: Friday, October 11, 2002 7:02 AM > To: canslim@lists.xmission.com > Subject: [CANSLIM] IBD Weblink > > Today's weblink features APPX. They describe the "false handle and > breakout" that is currently happening with that issue. It's a good look at > how the IBD folks interpret "low" handles. > > Now, the real question, can I expect to receive a little royality check in > the mail for this free advertising? Are you (lurker) listening out there?? > > Norm > > > - > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. > > > - > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. > > - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 11 Oct 2002 16:22:25 EDT From: Spencer48@aol.com Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] IBD Weblink Mike: This is a passage from IBD's Weblink today on APPX: "...Was this consolidation a sound handle? No, it wasn't. The low of the handle, 15.08, stood 31% off the 52-week high of 22. A healthy handle forms 5% to 15% off the stock's high in a strong market, up to 20% off the high in a bear. Thus Thursday's 8% gain on heavy volume (Point 3), while impressive, didn't constitute a true breakout...." Previously, I thought WON had said that the low of the handle should not go below 35% of the previous rise to the left lip. By The Way (whoever reads this far down): I generally compile my IBD "New America" stocks every Friday. Today I noticed that ALL of the stocks in New America for this week are in the Medical-Products or Medica/Dental Supplies or Medical Drugs industries. You think-with this repetition of "Medical"-IBD is hinting at something? jans In a message dated 10/11/2002 3:55:18 PM Eastern Daylight Time, mike@proactech.com writes: << It used to be that the pivot should be within 5-15% of the left side of the cup, but here they say 5-15% of the 52 week high. This seems to imply a new constraint that the left side of the cup should also be a 52 week high. >> - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 11 Oct 2002 11:15:05 -1000 From: "Mike Gibbons" Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] IBD Weblink Hi Jans, The point I was trying to make was not about the level at which the handle forms (5,15 or 31%), but that they used the 52 week high (back in January) as the reference point, rather than the left side of the cup, which was $19.11 on 3/13. However, if they had used the left side of the cup as the reference, then it was only 8% below the left side, well within the normal range and therefore a normal range. This was how my site saw the cwh as of 10/9, the day before the breakout. http://www.cwhcharts.com/charts/cwhchart.php?symbol=APPX&today=2002-10-09 Aloha, Mike Gibbons Proactive Technologies, LLC http://www.proactech.com - -----Original Message----- From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of Spencer48@aol.com Sent: Friday, October 11, 2002 10:22 AM To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] IBD Weblink Mike: This is a passage from IBD's Weblink today on APPX: "...Was this consolidation a sound handle? No, it wasn't. The low of the handle, 15.08, stood 31% off the 52-week high of 22. A healthy handle forms 5% to 15% off the stock's high in a strong market, up to 20% off the high in a bear. Thus Thursday's 8% gain on heavy volume (Point 3), while impressive, didn't constitute a true breakout...." Previously, I thought WON had said that the low of the handle should not go below 35% of the previous rise to the left lip. By The Way (whoever reads this far down): I generally compile my IBD "New America" stocks every Friday. Today I noticed that ALL of the stocks in New America for this week are in the Medical-Products or Medica/Dental Supplies or Medical Drugs industries. You think-with this repetition of "Medical"-IBD is hinting at something? jans In a message dated 10/11/2002 3:55:18 PM Eastern Daylight Time, mike@proactech.com writes: << It used to be that the pivot should be within 5-15% of the left side of the cup, but here they say 5-15% of the 52 week high. This seems to imply a new constraint that the left side of the cup should also be a 52 week high. >> - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 11 Oct 2002 11:19:21 -1000 From: "Mike Gibbons" Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] IBD Weblink Ooops....On my last post "well within the normal range and therefore a normal range." should have read "....and therefore a normal handle" Aloha, Mike Gibbons Proactive Technologies, LLC http://www.proactech.com - -----Original Message----- From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of Spencer48@aol.com Sent: Friday, October 11, 2002 10:22 AM To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] IBD Weblink Mike: This is a passage from IBD's Weblink today on APPX: "...Was this consolidation a sound handle? No, it wasn't. The low of the handle, 15.08, stood 31% off the 52-week high of 22. A healthy handle forms 5% to 15% off the stock's high in a strong market, up to 20% off the high in a bear. Thus Thursday's 8% gain on heavy volume (Point 3), while impressive, didn't constitute a true breakout...." Previously, I thought WON had said that the low of the handle should not go below 35% of the previous rise to the left lip. By The Way (whoever reads this far down): I generally compile my IBD "New America" stocks every Friday. Today I noticed that ALL of the stocks in New America for this week are in the Medical-Products or Medica/Dental Supplies or Medical Drugs industries. You think-with this repetition of "Medical"-IBD is hinting at something? jans In a message dated 10/11/2002 3:55:18 PM Eastern Daylight Time, mike@proactech.com writes: << It used to be that the pivot should be within 5-15% of the left side of the cup, but here they say 5-15% of the 52 week high. This seems to imply a new constraint that the left side of the cup should also be a 52 week high. >> - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 11 Oct 2002 18:09:12 -0500 From: "Katherine Malm" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] IBD Weblink This is a multi-part message in MIME format. - ------=_NextPart_000_014D_01C27151.4D4A2670 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable Hi jans & Mike, I've read through the weblink a couple of times and gone back to my = notes on C&H bases, handles, and HTMMIS. I think what's happened is a = case of sloppy editing in the weblink.=20 The left side of a cup is printed when the stock starts a correction = after a prior uptrend of 30% or more. With APPX, that means that the = left side of the cup is *not* the 52 wk high set on 1/4 (22.00) as they = implied, but instead, is the high set on 3/15 (19.11). The left side = starts on 3/15 because the rise from the low 2/8 (12.97) to the peak on = 3/15 was (19.11-12.97)/12.97 =3D 47%, setting up the new correction and = beginning of the cup. See an annotated chart at = http://WallStreet-LLC.com/canslim/APPX101102.JPG In HTMMIS, the wording WON uses to define the beginning of the handle = and the pivot buy point is "most occur 5% to 10% below the former = peak....and this is almost always somewhat below the base's actual high = point." The key word to me is that they are identifying the start of the = handle in relationship to the *base's* high point. There are a couple of = examples to demonstrate that the left side of the base is not always the = old 52 wk high. See for example, VRSN on p. 159 or PMCS on p. 162 of the = new edition of HTMMIS. Once the left side of the base is properly identified, then it's simply = a matter of testing whether the handle is valid: 1. Did it form within 5-15% of the base high? yes 2. Did it form in the upper half of the base? yes 3. Did it droop no more than 30% (that's a valid "bear market droop", = though the norm is 10-20%)? yes 4. Did it drift down on light volume? yes--though you could see the = beginning of the breakout in the last day of the handle. 5. Did it form above the 200 day MA? yes 6. Was it at least 5 days long? yes 7. Did volatility in the handle contract? debatable, though not = exceedingly zig zaggish and handles will often have a big shakeout day None of that's to say that the breakout won't fail, but I have to = disagree with the weblink's analysis this time. Katherine - ----- Original Message -----=20 From: Mike Gibbons=20 To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20 Sent: Friday, October 11, 2002 4:15 PM Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] IBD Weblink Hi Jans, The point I was trying to make was not about the level at which the = handle forms (5,15 or 31%), but that they used the 52 week high (back in = January) as the reference point, rather than the left side of the cup, which = was $19.11 on 3/13. However, if they had used the left side of the cup as the reference, = then it was only 8% below the left side, well within the normal range and = therefore a normal range. This was how my site saw the cwh as of 10/9, the day before the = breakout. = http://www.cwhcharts.com/charts/cwhchart.php?symbol=3DAPPX&today=3D2002-1= 0-09 Aloha, Mike Gibbons Proactive Technologies, LLC http://www.proactech.com -----Original Message----- From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of = Spencer48@aol.com Sent: Friday, October 11, 2002 10:22 AM To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] IBD Weblink Mike: This is a passage from IBD's Weblink today on APPX: "...Was this consolidation a sound handle? No, it wasn't. The low of the handle, = 15.08, stood 31% off the 52-week high of 22. A healthy handle forms 5% to 15% = off the stock's high in a strong market, up to 20% off the high in a bear. = Thus Thursday's 8% gain on heavy volume (Point 3), while impressive, didn't constitute a true breakout...." Previously, I thought WON had said that the low of the handle = should not go below 35% of the previous rise to the left lip. By The Way (whoever reads this far down): I generally compile my = IBD "New America" stocks every Friday. Today I noticed that ALL of the = stocks in New America for this week are in the Medical-Products or Medica/Dental Supplies or Medical Drugs industries. You think-with this repetition = of "Medical"-IBD is hinting at something? jans In a message dated 10/11/2002 3:55:18 PM Eastern Daylight Time, mike@proactech.com writes: << It used to be that the pivot should be within 5-15% of the left = side of the cup, but here they say 5-15% of the 52 week high. This seems to imply = a new constraint that the left side of the cup should also be a 52 week = high. >> - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - ------=_NextPart_000_014D_01C27151.4D4A2670 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
Hi jans & Mike,
 
I've read through the weblink a couple of times and gone back to my = notes=20 on C&H bases, handles, and HTMMIS. I think what's happened is a case = of=20 sloppy editing in the weblink.
 
The left side of a cup is printed when the stock starts a = correction after=20 a prior uptrend of 30% or more. With APPX, that means that the left side = of the=20 cup is *not* the 52 wk high set on 1/4 (22.00) as they implied, but = instead, is=20 the high set on 3/15 (19.11). The left side starts on 3/15 because the = rise from=20 the low 2/8 (12.97) to the peak on 3/15 was (19.11-12.97)/12.97 =3D 47%, = setting=20 up the new correction and beginning of the cup. See an annotated chart = at http://WallStre= et-LLC.com/canslim/APPX101102.JPG
 
In HTMMIS, the wording WON uses to define the beginning of the = handle and=20 the pivot buy point is "most occur 5% to 10% below the former = peak....and this=20 is almost always somewhat below the base's actual high point." The key = word to=20 me is that they are identifying the start of the handle in relationship = to the=20 *base's* high point. There are a couple of examples to demonstrate that = the left=20 side of the base is not always the old 52 wk high. See for example, VRSN = on p.=20 159 or PMCS on p. 162 of the new edition of HTMMIS.
 
Once the left side of the base is properly identified, then it's = simply a=20 matter of testing whether the handle is valid:
 
1. Did it form within 5-15% of the base high? yes
2. Did it form in the upper half of the base? yes
3. Did it droop no more than 30% (that's a valid "bear market = droop",=20 though the norm is 10-20%)? yes
4. Did it drift down on light volume? yes--though you could see the = beginning of the breakout in the last day of the handle.
5. Did it form above the 200 day MA? yes
6. Was it at least 5 days long? yes
7. Did volatility in the handle contract? debatable, though not = exceedingly=20 zig zaggish and handles will often have a big shakeout day
 
None of that's to say that the breakout won't fail, but I have to = disagree=20 with the weblink's analysis this time.
 
Katherine
 
----- Original Message -----
From:=20 Mike = Gibbons=20
Sent: Friday, October 11, 2002 = 4:15=20 PM
Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] IBD = Weblink

Hi Jans,

The point I was trying to make was not = about=20 the level at which the handle
forms (5,15 or 31%), but that they = used the=20 52 week high (back in January)
as the reference point, rather than = the left=20 side of the cup, which was
$19.11 on 3/13.

However, if they = had used=20 the left side of the cup as the reference, then it
was only 8% = below the=20 left side, well within the normal range and therefore
a normal=20 range.

This was how my site saw the cwh as of 10/9, the day = before the=20 breakout.

http://www.cwhcharts.com/charts/cwhchart.php?symbol=3DA= PPX&today=3D2002-10-09

Aloha,

Mike=20 Gibbons
Proactive Technologies, LLC
http://www.proactech.com

-----Original=20 Message-----
From: owner-canslim@lists.xmis= sion.com
[mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On=20 Behalf Of Spencer48@aol.com
Sent:=20 Friday, October 11, 2002 10:22 AM
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=
Subject:=20 Re: [CANSLIM] IBD = Weblink


Mike:

    =20 This is a passage from IBD's Weblink today on APPX:  "...Was=20 this
consolidation a sound handle? No, it wasn't. The low of the = handle,=20 15.08,
stood 31% off the 52-week high of 22. A healthy handle forms = 5% to=20 15% off
the stock's high in a strong market, up to 20% off the high = in a=20 bear. Thus
Thursday's 8% gain on heavy volume (Point 3), while = impressive,=20 didn't
constitute a true = breakout...."

    =20 Previously, I thought WON had said that the low of the handle=20 should
not
go below 35% of the previous rise to the left=20 lip.

     By The Way (whoever reads this = far=20 down):  I generally compile my IBD
"New America" stocks every=20 Friday.  Today I noticed that ALL of the stocks
in
New = America for=20 this week are in the Medical-Products or Medica/Dental
Supplies or = Medical=20 Drugs industries.  You think-with this repetition = of
"Medical"-IBD is=20 hinting at something?

jans




In a message = dated=20 10/11/2002 3:55:18 PM Eastern Daylight Time,
mike@proactech.com=20 writes:

<< It used to be that the pivot should be within = 5-15% of=20 the left side of
the
 cup, but here they say 5-15% of the = 52 week=20 high. This seems to imply a new
 constraint that the left side = of the=20 cup should also be a 52 week high. >>

-
-To=20 subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com"
-In= the=20 email body, write "subscribe canslim" or
-"unsubscribe = canslim".  Do=20 not use quotes in your email.


-
-To = subscribe/unsubscribe, email=20 "majordomo@xmission.com"
-In= =20 the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or
-"unsubscribe = canslim". =20 Do not use quotes in your email.
- ------=_NextPart_000_014D_01C27151.4D4A2670-- - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 11 Oct 2002 18:13:04 -0500 From: "Katherine Malm" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] What's still strong? This is a multi-part message in MIME format. - ------=_NextPart_000_0157_01C27151.D7FB5E60 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable I'll have to agree with you Ian. There's plenty of reasons to doubt the = latest rally...but then again, after such a lengthy bear market, there = should be. I don't know there's ever been a market bottom when all signs = pointed to "more rally on the way." Time will tell...plenty of medical = stocks showing relative strength...a couple of follow-through breakouts = in things like FRX and MME. Some climactic selling into the low... Can't = see any reason to jump in with both feet just yet, but I have my swim = suit on just in case. Katherine ----- Original Message -----=20 From: Ian=20 To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20 Sent: Friday, October 11, 2002 12:22 PM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] What's still strong? Hi Katherine: One thing that discourages me (again) is the ferocity of this rebound, = and its apparent concentration in heavily shorted stocks. The big = indices are up almost 10% in just 24 hours. I realize that they had = dropped a lot, but it still doesn't leave much headroom for traditional = follow-through days and a legitimate rally afterwards. We'll see. Chers, Ian ----- Original Message -----=20 From: Katherine Malm=20 To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20 Sent: Friday, October 11, 2002 7:24 AM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] What's still strong? Hi Ian, Glad to see you've popped up for a look see. Never can tell if a = rally can turn into something sustainable.... certainly worth staying = abreast just in case!! Either way, some very interesting stocks on the = list.... Katherine ----- Original Message -----=20 From: Ian=20 To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20 Sent: Thursday, October 10, 2002 6:22 PM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] What's still strong? Hi Katherine: Thank you very much for your efforts, I really appreciate it. I feel like I'm coming out of hibernation just by looking ... Cheers, Ian ----- Original Message -----=20 From: Katherine Malm=20 To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20 Sent: Thursday, October 10, 2002 10:14 AM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] What's still strong? Hi Ian, Since "good CANSLIM characteristics" and "up siginificantly" are = interpretive, I had to come up with some arbitrary guidelines for this = list, so here's how I derived it: 1. Forward growth rate >=3D15% 2. Price >=3D$10 3. Not down in the latest 52 wks. If trading < 52wks, up since = IPO. 4. Currently meet what I consider "minimum technicals" ... that = is, >=3D200 day MA, no more than 15% below the 50 day MA, RS>=3D60. 5. I deleted any stocks meeting items 1-4 that were REITS, = Mining or Food. I also deleted any stocks that are currently pending = merger/acquisition targets. I arbitrarly left in cyclicals such as = transportation and banking/S&L. Not all the charts are "pretty" as they may be up or even for = the year, but face multiyear overhead resistence. All in all, 111 names. = Out of 10000 stocks, that's about 1%. While that's not great odds for = anybody long over the last year, it does make a very nice "short list" = of strong stocks should the market get legs. See the list at: = http://WallStreet-LLC.com/canslim/WorkingStocks101002.xls Katherine ----- Original Message -----=20 From: Ian=20 To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20 Sent: Thursday, October 10, 2002 11:54 AM Subject: [CANSLIM] What's still strong? Hi all: I'm trying to make a list of stocks with good CANSLIM = characteristics that are well up on the year and still above their 50 = and 200 day ma's. Right now, the only $10+ stocks on my list are JCOM = and BLUD. Does anyone have any others? Thanks, Ian - ------=_NextPart_000_0157_01C27151.D7FB5E60 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
I'll have to agree with you Ian. There's plenty of reasons to doubt = the=20 latest rally...but then again, after such a lengthy bear market, there = should=20 be. I don't know there's ever been a market bottom when all signs = pointed to=20 "more rally on the way." Time will tell...plenty of medical stocks = showing=20 relative strength...a couple of follow-through breakouts in things like = FRX and=20 MME. Some climactic selling into the low... Can't see any reason to jump = in with=20 both feet just yet, but I have my swim suit on just in case.
 
Katherine
----- Original Message -----
From:=20 Ian =
Sent: Friday, October 11, 2002 = 12:22=20 PM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] What's = still=20 strong?

Hi Katherine:
 
One thing that discourages me (again) is the = ferocity of=20 this rebound, and its apparent concentration in heavily shorted = stocks. The=20 big indices are up almost 10% in just 24 hours. I realize that = they had=20 dropped a lot, but it still doesn't leave much headroom for = traditional=20 follow-through days and a legitimate rally afterwards. We'll = see.
 
Chers,
 
Ian
 
 
 
----- Original Message -----
From:=20 Katherine=20 Malm
Sent: Friday, October 11, = 2002 7:24=20 AM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] What's = still=20 strong?

Hi Ian,
 
Glad to see you've popped up for a look see. Never can tell if = a rally=20 can turn into something sustainable.... certainly worth staying = abreast just=20 in case!! Either way, some very interesting stocks on the = list....
 
Katherine
----- Original Message ----- =
From:=20 Ian =
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com= =20
Sent: Thursday, October 10, = 2002 6:22=20 PM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] = What's still=20 strong?

Hi Katherine:
 
Thank you very much for your efforts, I really = appreciate it.
 
I feel like I'm coming out of hibernation just = by=20 looking ...
 
Cheers,
 
Ian
 
 
----- Original Message ----- =
From:=20 Katherine=20 Malm
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com= =20
Sent: Thursday, October = 10, 2002=20 10:14 AM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] = What's still=20 strong?

Hi Ian,
 
Since "good CANSLIM characteristics" and "up = siginificantly" are=20 interpretive, I had to come up with some arbitrary guidelines = for this=20 list, so here's how I derived it:
 
1. Forward growth rate >=3D15%
2. Price >=3D$10
3. Not down in the latest 52 wks. If trading < 52wks, up = since=20 IPO.
4. Currently meet what I consider "minimum technicals" ... = that is,=20 >=3D200 day MA, no more than 15% below the 50 day MA, = RS>=3D60.
5. I deleted any stocks meeting items 1-4 that were REITS, = Mining=20 or Food. I also deleted any stocks that are currently pending=20 merger/acquisition targets. I arbitrarly left in cyclicals such = as=20 transportation and banking/S&L.
 
Not all the charts are "pretty" as they may be up or even = for the=20 year, but face multiyear overhead resistence. All in all, 111 = names. Out=20 of 10000 stocks, that's about 1%. While that's not great odds = for=20 anybody long over the last year, it does make a very nice "short = list"=20 of strong stocks should the market get legs.
 
See the list at: http:/= /WallStreet-LLC.com/canslim/WorkingStocks101002.xls
 
 
Katherine
----- Original Message ----- =
From:=20 Ian
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com= =20
Sent: Thursday, October = 10, 2002=20 11:54 AM
Subject: [CANSLIM] = What's still=20 strong?

Hi all:
 
I'm trying to make a list of stocks with = good=20 CANSLIM characteristics that are well up on the year and still = above=20 their 50 and 200 day ma's. Right now, the only $10+ stocks on = my list=20 are JCOM and BLUD. Does anyone have any others?
 
Thanks,
 
Ian
 
=
 
- ------=_NextPart_000_0157_01C27151.D7FB5E60-- - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 11 Oct 2002 18:40:03 -0500 From: Chris Dempsey Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] IBD Weblink This is a multi-part message in MIME format. - --Boundary_(ID_qv4zPZm/QzRj/f5uDNFWsQ) Content-type: text/plain; charset=iso-8859-1 Content-transfer-encoding: 7BIT Excellent work. I agree with you. - -----Original Message----- From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of Katherine Malm Sent: Friday, October 11, 2002 6:09 PM To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] IBD Weblink Hi jans & Mike, I've read through the weblink a couple of times and gone back to my notes on C&H bases, handles, and HTMMIS. I think what's happened is a case of sloppy editing in the weblink. The left side of a cup is printed when the stock starts a correction after a prior uptrend of 30% or more. With APPX, that means that the left side of the cup is *not* the 52 wk high set on 1/4 (22.00) as they implied, but instead, is the high set on 3/15 (19.11). The left side starts on 3/15 because the rise from the low 2/8 (12.97) to the peak on 3/15 was (19.11-12.97)/12.97 = 47%, setting up the new correction and beginning of the cup. See an annotated chart at http://WallStreet-LLC.com/canslim/APPX101102.JPG In HTMMIS, the wording WON uses to define the beginning of the handle and the pivot buy point is "most occur 5% to 10% below the former peak....and this is almost always somewhat below the base's actual high point." The key word to me is that they are identifying the start of the handle in relationship to the *base's* high point. There are a couple of examples to demonstrate that the left side of the base is not always the old 52 wk high. See for example, VRSN on p. 159 or PMCS on p. 162 of the new edition of HTMMIS. Once the left side of the base is properly identified, then it's simply a matter of testing whether the handle is valid: 1. Did it form within 5-15% of the base high? yes 2. Did it form in the upper half of the base? yes 3. Did it droop no more than 30% (that's a valid "bear market droop", though the norm is 10-20%)? yes 4. Did it drift down on light volume? yes--though you could see the beginning of the breakout in the last day of the handle. 5. Did it form above the 200 day MA? yes 6. Was it at least 5 days long? yes 7. Did volatility in the handle contract? debatable, though not exceedingly zig zaggish and handles will often have a big shakeout day None of that's to say that the breakout won't fail, but I have to disagree with the weblink's analysis this time. Katherine - --Boundary_(ID_qv4zPZm/QzRj/f5uDNFWsQ) Content-type: text/html; charset=iso-8859-1 Content-transfer-encoding: 7BIT

Excellent work. I agree with you.

 

-----Original Message-----
From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of Katherine Malm
Sent: Friday, October 11, 2002 6:09 PM
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] IBD Weblink

 

Hi jans & Mike,

 

I've read through the weblink a couple of times and gone back to my notes on C&H bases, handles, and HTMMIS. I think what's happened is a case of sloppy editing in the weblink.

 

The left side of a cup is printed when the stock starts a correction after a prior uptrend of 30% or more. With APPX, that means that the left side of the cup is *not* the 52 wk high set on 1/4 (22.00) as they implied, but instead, is the high set on 3/15 (19.11). The left side starts on 3/15 because the rise from the low 2/8 (12.97) to the peak on 3/15 was (19.11-12.97)/12.97 = 47%, setting up the new correction and beginning of the cup. See an annotated chart at http://WallStreet-LLC.com/canslim/APPX101102.JPG

 

In HTMMIS, the wording WON uses to define the beginning of the handle and the pivot buy point is "most occur 5% to 10% below the former peak....and this is almost always somewhat below the base's actual high point." The key word to me is that they are identifying the start of the handle in relationship to the *base's* high point. There are a couple of examples to demonstrate that the left side of the base is not always the old 52 wk high. See for example, VRSN on p. 159 or PMCS on p. 162 of the new edition of HTMMIS.

 

Once the left side of the base is properly identified, then it's simply a matter of testing whether the handle is valid:

 

1. Did it form within 5-15% of the base high? yes

2. Did it form in the upper half of the base? yes

3. Did it droop no more than 30% (that's a valid "bear market droop", though the norm is 10-20%)? yes

4. Did it drift down on light volume? yes--though you could see the beginning of the breakout in the last day of the handle.

5. Did it form above the 200 day MA? yes

6. Was it at least 5 days long? yes

7. Did volatility in the handle contract? debatable, though not exceedingly zig zaggish and handles will often have a big shakeout day

 

None of that's to say that the breakout won't fail, but I have to disagree with the weblink's analysis this time.

 

Katherine

 

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